Daily Papers

Virtual screening of small molecules against protein targets can accelerate drug discovery and development by predicting drug-target interactions (DTIs). However, structure-based methods like molecular docking are too slow to allow for broad proteome-scale screens, limiting their application in screening for off-target effects or new molecular mechanisms. Recently, vector-based methods using protein language models (PLMs) have emerged as a complementary approach that bypasses explicit 3D structure modeling. Here, we develop SPRINT, a vector-based approach for screening entire chemical libraries against whole proteomes for DTIs and novel mechanisms of action. SPRINT improves on prior work by using a self-attention based architecture and structure-aware PLMs to learn drug-target co-embeddings for binder prediction, search, and retrieval. SPRINT achieves SOTA enrichment factors in virtual screening on LIT-PCBA, DTI classification benchmarks, and binding affinity prediction benchmarks, while providing interpretability in the form of residue-level attention maps. In addition to being both accurate and interpretable, SPRINT is ultra-fast: querying the whole human proteome against the ENAMINE Real Database (6.7B drugs) for the 100 most likely binders per protein takes 16 minutes. SPRINT promises to enable virtual screening at an unprecedented scale, opening up new opportunities for in silico drug repurposing and development. SPRINT is available on the web as ColabScreen: https://bit.ly/colab-screen

AlphaFold has transformed protein structure prediction, but emerging applications such as virtual ligand screening, proteome-wide folding, and de novo binder design demand predictions at a massive scale, where runtime and memory costs become prohibitive. A major bottleneck lies in the Pairformer backbone of AlphaFold3-style models, which relies on computationally expensive triangular primitives-especially triangle attention-for pairwise reasoning. We introduce Pairmixer, a streamlined alternative that eliminates triangle attention while preserving higher-order geometric reasoning capabilities that are critical for structure prediction. Pairmixer substantially improves computational efficiency, matching state-of-the-art structure predictors across folding and docking benchmarks, delivering up to 4x faster inference on long sequences while reducing training cost by 34%. Its efficiency alleviates the computational burden of downstream applications such as modeling large protein complexes, high-throughput ligand and binder screening, and hallucination-based design. Within BoltzDesign, for example, Pairmixer delivers over 2x faster sampling and scales to sequences ~30% longer than the memory limits of Pairformer.

While current vision algorithms excel at many challenging tasks, it is unclear how well they understand the physical dynamics of real-world environments. Here we introduce Physion, a dataset and benchmark for rigorously evaluating the ability to predict how physical scenarios will evolve over time. Our dataset features realistic simulations of a wide range of physical phenomena, including rigid and soft-body collisions, stable multi-object configurations, rolling, sliding, and projectile motion, thus providing a more comprehensive challenge than previous benchmarks. We used Physion to benchmark a suite of models varying in their architecture, learning objective, input-output structure, and training data. In parallel, we obtained precise measurements of human prediction behavior on the same set of scenarios, allowing us to directly evaluate how well any model could approximate human behavior. We found that vision algorithms that learn object-centric representations generally outperform those that do not, yet still fall far short of human performance. On the other hand, graph neural networks with direct access to physical state information both perform substantially better and make predictions that are more similar to those made by humans. These results suggest that extracting physical representations of scenes is the main bottleneck to achieving human-level and human-like physical understanding in vision algorithms. We have publicly released all data and code to facilitate the use of Physion to benchmark additional models in a fully reproducible manner, enabling systematic evaluation of progress towards vision algorithms that understand physical environments as robustly as people do.

Modern AI technologies for drug discovery are distributed across heterogeneous platforms-including web applications, desktop environments, and code libraries-leading to fragmented workflows, inconsistent interfaces, and high integration overhead. We present an agentic end-to-end drug design framework that leverages a Large Language Model (LLM) in conjunction with the Model Context Protocol (MCP) to dynamically coordinate access to biochemical databases, modular toolchains, and task-specific AI models. The system integrates four state-of-the-art components: MaSIF (MaSIF-site and MaSIF-seed-search) for geometric deep learning-based identification of protein-protein interaction (PPI) sites, Rosetta for grafting protein fragments onto protein backbones to form mini proteins, ProteinMPNN for amino acid sequences redesign, and AlphaFold3 for near-experimental accuracy in complex structure prediction. Starting from a target structure, the framework supports de novo binder generation via surface analysis, scaffold grafting and pose construction, sequence optimization, and structure prediction. Additionally, by replacing rigid, script-based workflows with a protocol-driven, LLM-coordinated architecture, the framework improves reproducibility, reduces manual overhead, and ensures extensibility, portability, and auditability across the entire drug design process.

Humans are interactive agents driven to seek out situations with interesting physical dynamics. Here we formalize the functional form of physical intrinsic motivation. We first collect ratings of how interesting humans find a variety of physics scenarios. We then model human interestingness responses by implementing various hypotheses of intrinsic motivation including models that rely on simple scene features to models that depend on forward physics prediction. We find that the single best predictor of human responses is adversarial reward, a model derived from physical prediction loss. We also find that simple scene feature models do not generalize their prediction of human responses across all scenarios. Finally, linearly combining the adversarial model with the number of collisions in a scene leads to the greatest improvement in predictivity of human responses, suggesting humans are driven towards scenarios that result in high information gain and physical activity.

The ability to understand physical dynamics is critical for agents to act in the world. Here, we use Counterfactual World Modeling (CWM) to extract vision structures for dynamics understanding. CWM uses a temporally-factored masking policy for masked prediction of video data without annotations. This policy enables highly effective "counterfactual prompting" of the predictor, allowing a spectrum of visual structures to be extracted from a single pre-trained predictor without finetuning on annotated datasets. We demonstrate that these structures are useful for physical dynamics understanding, allowing CWM to achieve the state-of-the-art performance on the Physion benchmark.

Understanding cellular machinery requires atomic-scale reconstruction of large biomolecular assemblies. However, predicting the structures of these systems has been constrained by hardware memory requirements of models like AlphaFold 3, imposing a practical ceiling of a few thousand residues that can be processed on a single GPU. Here we present NVIDIA BioNeMo Fold-CP, a context parallelism framework that overcomes this barrier by distributing the inference and training pipelines of co-folding models across multiple GPUs. We use the Boltz models as open source reference architectures and implement custom multidimensional primitives that efficiently parallelize both the dense triangular updates and the irregular, data-dependent pattern of window-batched local attention. Our approach achieves efficient memory scaling; for an N-token input distributed across P GPUs, per-device memory scales as O(N^2/P), enabling the structure prediction of assemblies exceeding 30,000 residues on 64 NVIDIA B300 GPUs. We demonstrate the scientific utility of this approach through successful developer use cases: Fold-CP enabled the scoring of over 90% of Comprehensive Resource of Mammalian protein complexes (CORUM) database, as well as folding of disease-relevant PI4KA lipid kinase complex bound to an intrinsically disordered region without cropping. By providing a scalable pathway for modeling massive systems with full global context, Fold-CP represents a significant step toward the realization of a virtual cell.

Supramolecular chemistry, which includes the study of non-covalent host-guest assemblies, has advanced various applications. However, designing host-guest systems remains time-consuming, requiring days of dry-lab verification per candidate pair. Although LLMs have emerged as a fast alternative with strong performance on molecular binding tasks, no benchmark currently systematically evaluates LLMs for host-guest reasoning across fundamental supramolecular chemistry tasks, e.g., binding affinity prediction. To this end, we collaborate with domain experts to release the first Supramolecular Benchmark, called SupraBench, to evaluate LLMs in chemistry reasoning. Specifically, we design four fundamental tasks, i.e., binding affinity prediction, top-binder selection, solvent identification, and host-guest description, plus an auxiliary vision-based task for molecular identification. We also release SupraPMC, a curated 16M-token corpus of Supramolecular chemistry articles distilled from Europe PMC, to support the adaptation to the supramolecular domain. We benchmark a broad range of open and proprietary LLMs and find that LLMs leave substantial headroom across all tasks. Domain adaptation pretraining over SupraPMC transfers cleanly to in-distribution regression but trades off against strict letter-format output. Moreover, the difficulty profile differs sharply across task families, revealing distinct failure modes that indicate specific gaps in current supramolecular chemistry reasoning. Our source codes and benchmark datasets are available at https://github.com/Tianyi-Billy-Ma/SupraBench.

Target proteins that lack accessible binding pockets and conformational stability have posed increasing challenges for drug development. Induced proximity strategies, such as PROTACs and molecular glues, have thus gained attention as pharmacological alternatives, but still require small molecule docking at binding pockets for targeted protein degradation (TPD). The computational design of protein-based binders presents unique opportunities to access undruggable targets, but have often relied on stable 3D structures or predictions for effective binder generation. Recently, we have leveraged the expressive latent spaces of protein language models (pLMs) for the prioritization of peptide binders from sequence alone, which we have then fused to E3 ubiquitin ligase domains, creating a CRISPR-analogous TPD system for target proteins. However, our methods rely on training discriminator models for ranking heuristically or unconditionally-derived guide peptides for their target binding capability. In this work, we introduce PepMLM, a purely target sequence-conditioned de novo generator of linear peptide binders. By employing a novel masking strategy that uniquely positions cognate peptide sequences at the terminus of target protein sequences, PepMLM tasks the state-of-the-art ESM-2 pLM to fully reconstruct the binder region, achieving low perplexities matching or improving upon previously-validated peptide-protein sequence pairs. After successful in silico benchmarking with AlphaFold-Multimer, we experimentally verify PepMLM's efficacy via fusion of model-derived peptides to E3 ubiquitin ligase domains, demonstrating endogenous degradation of target substrates in cellular models. In total, PepMLM enables the generative design of candidate binders to any target protein, without the requirement of target structure, empowering downstream programmable proteome editing applications.

Though end-to-end neural approaches have recently been dominating NLP tasks in both performance and ease-of-use, they lack interpretability and robustness. We propose Binder, a training-free neural-symbolic framework that maps the task input to a program, which (1) allows binding a unified API of language model (LM) functionalities to a programming language (e.g., SQL, Python) to extend its grammar coverage and thus tackle more diverse questions, (2) adopts an LM as both the program parser and the underlying model called by the API during execution, and (3) requires only a few in-context exemplar annotations. Specifically, we employ GPT-3 Codex as the LM. In the parsing stage, with only a few in-context exemplars, Codex is able to identify the part of the task input that cannot be answerable by the original programming language, correctly generate API calls to prompt Codex to solve the unanswerable part, and identify where to place the API calls while being compatible with the original grammar. In the execution stage, Codex can perform versatile functionalities (e.g., commonsense QA, information extraction) given proper prompts in the API calls. Binder achieves state-of-the-art results on WikiTableQuestions and TabFact datasets, with explicit output programs that benefit human debugging. Note that previous best systems are all finetuned on tens of thousands of task-specific samples, while Binder only uses dozens of annotations as in-context exemplars without any training. Our code is available at https://github.com/HKUNLP/Binder .

The computational prediction and design of peptide binders targeting specific linear epitopes is crucial in biological and biomedical research, yet it remains challenging due to their highly dynamic nature and the scarcity of experimentally solved binding data. To address this problem, we built an unprecedentedly large-scale library of peptide pairs within stable secondary structures (beta sheets), leveraging newly available AlphaFold predicted structures. We then developed a machine learning method based on the Transformer architecture for the design of specific linear binders, in analogy to a language translation task. Our method, TransformerBeta, accurately predicts specific beta strand interactions and samples sequences with beta sheet-like molecular properties, while capturing interpretable physico-chemical interaction patterns. As such, it can propose specific candidate binders targeting linear epitope for experimental validation to inform protein design.

Computational design of protein-binding proteins is a fundamental capability with broad utility in biomedical research and biotechnology. Recent methods have made strides against some target proteins, but on-demand creation of high-affinity binders without multiple rounds of experimental testing remains an unsolved challenge. This technical report introduces AlphaProteo, a family of machine learning models for protein design, and details its performance on the de novo binder design problem. With AlphaProteo, we achieve 3- to 300-fold better binding affinities and higher experimental success rates than the best existing methods on seven target proteins. Our results suggest that AlphaProteo can generate binders "ready-to-use" for many research applications using only one round of medium-throughput screening and no further optimization.

Proteins are fundamental to biology, executing diverse functions through complex physicochemical interactions, and they hold transformative potential across medicine, materials science, and environmental applications. Protein Language Models (pLMs) aim to unlock insights from the vast space of unlabeled protein sequences by learning rich, semantic representations from primary sequences via masked language modeling. However, these models typically exhibit limited generative capacity. In this work, we introduce the Diffusion Sequence Model (DSM), a novel pLM trained with masked diffusion to enable both high-quality representation learning and generative protein design. DSM builds upon the ESM2 architecture by incorporating a masked forward diffusion process inspired by the LLaDA framework. After training, DSM is capable of generating diverse, biomimetic sequences that align with expected amino acid compositions, secondary structures, and predicted functions, even with 90\% token corruption. Furthermore, DSM's learned representations match or exceed those of similarly sized pLMs on downstream tasks. We also introduce DSM(ppi), a variant fine-tuned to generate protein binders by attending to target sequences. We demonstrate DSM(ppi)'s effectiveness on the challenging Bench-tested Binder Benchmark (BenchBB), where both DSM and DSM(ppi) produce candidates with superior predicted binding affinity compared to known binders. Our results establish masked diffusion as a powerful paradigm for unifying protein representation and generation in a single framework.

Prediction sets have recently been shown to be a promising strategy for quantifying the uncertainty of deep neural networks in a way that provides theoretical guarantees. However, existing techniques have largely targeted settings where the space of labels is simple, so prediction sets can be arbitrary subsets of labels. For structured prediction problems where the space of labels is exponential in size, even prediction sets containing a small fraction of all labels can be exponentially large. In the context of code generation, we propose a solution that considers a restricted set of prediction sets that can compactly be represented as partial programs, which are programs with portions replaced with holes. Given a trained code generation model, our algorithm leverages a programming language's abstract syntax tree to generate a set of programs such that the correct program is in the set with high-confidence. Valuable applications of our algorithm include a Codex-style code generator with holes in uncertain parts of the generated code, which provides a partial program with theoretical guarantees. We evaluate our approach on PICARD (a T5 model for SQL semantic parsing) and Codex (a GPT model for over a dozen programming languages, including Python), demonstrating that our approach generates compact PAC prediction sets. This is the first research contribution that generates PAC prediction sets for generative code models.

The binding between proteins and ligands plays a crucial role in the realm of drug discovery. Previous deep learning approaches have shown promising results over traditional computationally intensive methods, but resulting in poor generalization due to limited supervised data. In this paper, we propose to learn protein-ligand binding representation in a self-supervised learning manner. Different from existing pre-training approaches which treat proteins and ligands individually, we emphasize to discern the intricate binding patterns from fine-grained interactions. Specifically, this self-supervised learning problem is formulated as a prediction of the conclusive binding complex structure given a pocket and ligand with a Transformer based interaction module, which naturally emulates the binding process. To ensure the representation of rich binding information, we introduce two pre-training tasks, i.e.~atomic pairwise distance map prediction and mask ligand reconstruction, which comprehensively model the fine-grained interactions from both structure and feature space. Extensive experiments have demonstrated the superiority of our method across various binding tasks, including protein-ligand affinity prediction, virtual screening and protein-ligand docking.

Modeling the interaction between proteins and ligands and accurately predicting their binding structures is a critical yet challenging task in drug discovery. Recent advancements in deep learning have shown promise in addressing this challenge, with sampling-based and regression-based methods emerging as two prominent approaches. However, these methods have notable limitations. Sampling-based methods often suffer from low efficiency due to the need for generating multiple candidate structures for selection. On the other hand, regression-based methods offer fast predictions but may experience decreased accuracy. Additionally, the variation in protein sizes often requires external modules for selecting suitable binding pockets, further impacting efficiency. In this work, we propose FABind, an end-to-end model that combines pocket prediction and docking to achieve accurate and fast protein-ligand binding. FABind incorporates a unique ligand-informed pocket prediction module, which is also leveraged for docking pose estimation. The model further enhances the docking process by incrementally integrating the predicted pocket to optimize protein-ligand binding, reducing discrepancies between training and inference. Through extensive experiments on benchmark datasets, our proposed FABind demonstrates strong advantages in terms of effectiveness and efficiency compared to existing methods. Our code is available at https://github.com/QizhiPei/FABind

Accurate prediction of protein-ligand binding poses is crucial for structure-based drug design, yet existing methods struggle to balance speed, accuracy, and physical plausibility. We introduce Matcha, a novel molecular docking pipeline that combines multi-stage flow matching with learned scoring and physical validity filtering. Our approach consists of three sequential stages applied consecutively to refine docking predictions, each implemented as a flow matching model operating on appropriate geometric spaces (R^3, SO(3), and SO(2)). We enhance the prediction quality through a dedicated scoring model and apply unsupervised physical validity filters to eliminate unrealistic poses. Compared to various approaches, Matcha demonstrates superior performance on Astex and PDBbind test sets in terms of docking success rate and physical plausibility. Moreover, our method works approximately 25 times faster than modern large-scale co-folding models. The model weights and inference code to reproduce our results are available at https://github.com/LigandPro/Matcha.

Although RDBs store vast amounts of rich, informative data spread across interconnected tables, the progress of predictive machine learning models as applied to such tasks arguably falls well behind advances in other domains such as computer vision or natural language processing. This deficit stems, at least in part, from the lack of established/public RDB benchmarks as needed for training and evaluation purposes. As a result, related model development thus far often defaults to tabular approaches trained on ubiquitous single-table benchmarks, or on the relational side, graph-based alternatives such as GNNs applied to a completely different set of graph datasets devoid of tabular characteristics. To more precisely target RDBs lying at the nexus of these two complementary regimes, we explore a broad class of baseline models predicated on: (i) converting multi-table datasets into graphs using various strategies equipped with efficient subsampling, while preserving tabular characteristics; and (ii) trainable models with well-matched inductive biases that output predictions based on these input subgraphs. Then, to address the dearth of suitable public benchmarks and reduce siloed comparisons, we assemble a diverse collection of (i) large-scale RDB datasets and (ii) coincident predictive tasks. From a delivery standpoint, we operationalize the above four dimensions (4D) of exploration within a unified, scalable open-source toolbox called 4DBInfer. We conclude by presenting evaluations using 4DBInfer, the results of which highlight the importance of considering each such dimension in the design of RDB predictive models, as well as the limitations of more naive approaches such as simply joining adjacent tables. Our source code is released at https://github.com/awslabs/multi-table-benchmark .

Asphalt concrete's (AC) durability and maintenance demands are strongly influenced by its fatigue life. Traditional methods for determining this characteristic are both resource-intensive and time-consuming. This study employs artificial neural networks (ANNs) to predict AC fatigue life, focusing on the impact of strain level, binder content, and air-void content. Leveraging a substantial dataset, we tailored our models to effectively handle the wide range of fatigue life data, typically represented on a logarithmic scale. The mean square logarithmic error was utilized as the loss function to enhance prediction accuracy across all levels of fatigue life. Through comparative analysis of various hyperparameters, we developed a machine-learning model that captures the complex relationships within the data. Our findings demonstrate that higher binder content significantly enhances fatigue life, while the influence of air-void content is more variable, depending on binder levels. Most importantly, this study provides insights into the intricacies of using ANNs for modeling, showcasing their potential utility with larger datasets. The codes developed and the data used in this study are provided as open source on a GitHub repository, with a link included in the paper for full access.

Given the clinical notes written in electronic health records (EHRs), it is challenging to predict the diagnostic codes which is formulated as a multi-label classification task. The large set of labels, the hierarchical dependency, and the imbalanced data make this prediction task extremely hard. Most existing work built a binary prediction for each label independently, ignoring the dependencies between labels. To address this problem, we propose a two-stage framework to improve automatic ICD coding by capturing the label correlation. Specifically, we train a label set distribution estimator to rescore the probability of each label set candidate generated by a base predictor. This paper is the first attempt at learning the label set distribution as a reranking module for medical code prediction. In the experiments, our proposed framework is able to improve upon best-performing predictors on the benchmark MIMIC datasets. The source code of this project is available at https://github.com/MiuLab/ICD-Correlation.

Foundation models applied to bio-molecular space hold promise to accelerate drug discovery. Molecular representation is key to building such models. Previous works have typically focused on a single representation or view of the molecules. Here, we develop a multi-view foundation model approach, that integrates molecular views of graph, image and text. Single-view foundation models are each pre-trained on a dataset of up to 200M molecules and then aggregated into combined representations. Our multi-view model is validated on a diverse set of 18 tasks, encompassing ligand-protein binding, molecular solubility, metabolism and toxicity. We show that the multi-view models perform robustly and are able to balance the strengths and weaknesses of specific views. We then apply this model to screen compounds against a large (>100 targets) set of G Protein-Coupled receptors (GPCRs). From this library of targets, we identify 33 that are related to Alzheimer's disease. On this subset, we employ our model to identify strong binders, which are validated through structure-based modeling and identification of key binding motifs.

Scientific posters play a vital role in academic communication by presenting ideas through visual summaries. Analyzing reading order and parent-child relations of posters is essential for building structure-aware interfaces that facilitate clear and accurate understanding of research content. Despite their prevalence in academic communication, posters remain underexplored in structural analysis research, which has primarily focused on papers. To address this gap, we constructed SciPostLayoutTree, a dataset of approximately 8,000 posters annotated with reading order and parent-child relations. Compared to an existing structural analysis dataset, SciPostLayoutTree contains more instances of spatially challenging relations, including upward, horizontal, and long-distance relations. As a solution to these challenges, we develop Layout Tree Decoder, which incorporates visual features as well as bounding box features including position and category information. The model also uses beam search to predict relations while capturing sequence-level plausibility. Experimental results demonstrate that our model improves the prediction accuracy for spatially challenging relations and establishes a solid baseline for poster structure analysis. The dataset is publicly available at https://huggingface.co/datasets/omron-sinicx/scipostlayouttree. The code is also publicly available at https://github.com/omron-sinicx/scipostlayouttree.

Property prediction accuracy has long been a key parameter of machine learning in materials informatics. Accordingly, advanced models showing state-of-the-art performance turn into highly parameterized black boxes missing interpretability. Here, we present an elegant way to make their reasoning transparent. Human-readable text-based descriptions automatically generated within a suite of open-source tools are proposed as materials representation. Transformer language models pretrained on 2 million peer-reviewed articles take as input well-known terms, e.g., chemical composition, crystal symmetry, and site geometry. Our approach outperforms crystal graph networks by classifying four out of five analyzed properties if one considers all available reference data. Moreover, fine-tuned text-based models show high accuracy in the ultra-small data limit. Explanations of their internal machinery are produced using local interpretability techniques and are faithful and consistent with domain expert rationales. This language-centric framework makes accurate property predictions accessible to people without artificial-intelligence expertise.

Prediction of protein-ligand (PL) binding affinity remains the key to drug discovery. Popular approaches in recent years involve graph neural networks (GNNs), which are used to learn the topology and geometry of PL complexes. However, GNNs are computationally heavy and have poor scalability to graph sizes. On the other hand, traditional machine learning (ML) approaches, such as gradient-boosted decision trees (GBDTs), are lightweight yet extremely efficient for tabular data. We propose to use PL interaction features along with PL graph-level features in GBDT. We show that this combination outperforms the existing solutions.

In this paper, we introduce the Chinese AI and Law challenge dataset (CAIL2018), the first large-scale Chinese legal dataset for judgment prediction. \dataset contains more than 2.6 million criminal cases published by the Supreme People's Court of China, which are several times larger than other datasets in existing works on judgment prediction. Moreover, the annotations of judgment results are more detailed and rich. It consists of applicable law articles, charges, and prison terms, which are expected to be inferred according to the fact descriptions of cases. For comparison, we implement several conventional text classification baselines for judgment prediction and experimental results show that it is still a challenge for current models to predict the judgment results of legal cases, especially on prison terms. To help the researchers make improvements on legal judgment prediction, both \dataset and baselines will be released after the CAIL competitionhttp://cail.cipsc.org.cn/.

Accurately modeling protein 3D structure is essential for the design of functional proteins. An important sub-task of structure modeling is protein side-chain packing: predicting the conformation of side-chains (rotamers) given the protein's backbone structure and amino-acid sequence. Conventional approaches for this task rely on expensive sampling procedures over hand-crafted energy functions and rotamer libraries. Recently, several deep learning methods have been developed to tackle the problem in a data-driven way, albeit with vastly different formulations (from image-to-image translation to directly predicting atomic coordinates). Here, we frame the problem as a joint regression over the side-chains' true degrees of freedom: the dihedral chi angles. We carefully study possible objective functions for this task, while accounting for the underlying symmetries of the task. We propose Holographic Packer (H-Packer), a novel two-stage algorithm for side-chain packing built on top of two light-weight rotationally equivariant neural networks. We evaluate our method on CASP13 and CASP14 targets. H-Packer is computationally efficient and shows favorable performance against conventional physics-based algorithms and is competitive against alternative deep learning solutions.

Generating novel active molecules for a given protein is an extremely challenging task for generative models that requires an understanding of the complex physical interactions between the molecule and its environment. In this paper, we present a novel generative model, BindGPT which uses a conceptually simple but powerful approach to create 3D molecules within the protein's binding site. Our model produces molecular graphs and conformations jointly, eliminating the need for an extra graph reconstruction step. We pretrain BindGPT on a large-scale dataset and fine-tune it with reinforcement learning using scores from external simulation software. We demonstrate how a single pretrained language model can serve at the same time as a 3D molecular generative model, conformer generator conditioned on the molecular graph, and a pocket-conditioned 3D molecule generator. Notably, the model does not make any representational equivariance assumptions about the domain of generation. We show how such simple conceptual approach combined with pretraining and scaling can perform on par or better than the current best specialized diffusion models, language models, and graph neural networks while being two orders of magnitude cheaper to sample.

Prediction sets capture uncertainty by predicting sets of labels rather than individual labels, enabling downstream decisions to conservatively account for all plausible outcomes. Conformal inference algorithms construct prediction sets guaranteed to contain the true label with high probability. These guarantees fail to hold in the face of distribution shift, which is precisely when reliable uncertainty quantification can be most useful. We propose a novel algorithm for constructing prediction sets with PAC guarantees in the label shift setting. This method estimates the predicted probabilities of the classes in a target domain, as well as the confusion matrix, then propagates uncertainty in these estimates through a Gaussian elimination algorithm to compute confidence intervals for importance weights. Finally, it uses these intervals to construct prediction sets. We evaluate our approach on five datasets: the CIFAR-10, ChestX-Ray and Entity-13 image datasets, the tabular CDC Heart dataset, and the AGNews text dataset. Our algorithm satisfies the PAC guarantee while producing smaller, more informative, prediction sets compared to several baselines.

Forecasts of future events are essential inputs into informed decision-making. Machine learning (ML) systems have the potential to deliver forecasts at scale, but there is no framework for evaluating the accuracy of ML systems on a standardized set of forecasting questions. To address this gap, we introduce ForecastBench: a dynamic benchmark that evaluates the accuracy of ML systems on an automatically generated and regularly updated set of 1,000 forecasting questions. To avoid any possibility of data leakage, ForecastBench is comprised solely of questions about future events that have no known answer at the time of submission. We quantify the capabilities of current ML systems by collecting forecasts from expert (human) forecasters, the general public, and LLMs on a random subset of questions from the benchmark (N=200). While LLMs have achieved super-human performance on many benchmarks, they perform less well here: expert forecasters outperform the top-performing LLM (p-value <0.001). We display system and human scores in a public leaderboard at www.forecastbench.org.

Text-to-optimization requires two separable capabilities: modeling -- choosing the right optimization structure -- and binding -- grounding every coefficient, index, and parameter in the concrete problem data. We study this via Text2Opt-Bench, a scalable benchmark of solver-verified optimization problems spanning 12 categories, from textbook linear programs to stochastic and multi-objective formulations with up to thousands of variables. Across 10+ models, we find that accuracy collapses as instance data grows, even when the formulation itself is simple. We call this the effective binding limit. We address this via a simple inference-time approach, BIND, which externalizes numeric data to structured files so the model binds data programmatically rather than transcribing from the prompt. BIND improves GPT-5-Nano from 59.1% to 82.4% accuracy, matching pass@5 (82.0%) at lower token cost than pass@1, and GPT-5 from 86.2% to 95.8%. Furthermore, we validate our hypothesis by finetuning a model exclusively on binding and show that it outperforms end-to-end SFT and RL across three structurally distinct optimization categories, with a 1.5B binding specialist alone matching a 7B end-to-end baseline.

This paper studies the prediction of a target z from a pair of random variables (x,y), where the ground-truth predictor is additive E[z mid x,y] = f_star(x) +g_{star}(y). We study the performance of empirical risk minimization (ERM) over functions f+g, f in F and g in G, fit on a given training distribution, but evaluated on a test distribution which exhibits covariate shift. We show that, when the class F is "simpler" than G (measured, e.g., in terms of its metric entropy), our predictor is more resilient to heterogenous covariate shifts in which the shift in x is much greater than that in y. These results rely on a novel H\"older style inequality for the Dudley integral which may be of independent interest. Moreover, we corroborate our theoretical findings with experiments demonstrating improved resilience to shifts in "simpler" features across numerous domains.

Legal judgment prediction is the task of automatically predicting the outcome of a court case, given a text describing the case's facts. Previous work on using neural models for this task has focused on Chinese; only feature-based models (e.g., using bags of words and topics) have been considered in English. We release a new English legal judgment prediction dataset, containing cases from the European Court of Human Rights. We evaluate a broad variety of neural models on the new dataset, establishing strong baselines that surpass previous feature-based models in three tasks: (1) binary violation classification; (2) multi-label classification; (3) case importance prediction. We also explore if models are biased towards demographic information via data anonymization. As a side-product, we propose a hierarchical version of BERT, which bypasses BERT's length limitation.

Tabular data, a fundamental data format in machine learning, is predominantly utilized in competitions and real-world applications. The performance of tabular models--such as gradient boosted decision trees and neural networks--can vary significantly across datasets due to differences in feature distributions and task characteristics. Achieving top performance on each dataset often requires specialized expert knowledge. To address this variability, practitioners often aggregate the predictions of multiple models. However, conventional aggregation strategies typically rely on static combination rules and lack instance-level adaptability. In this work, we propose an in-context ensemble framework for tabular prediction that leverages large language models (LLMs) to perform dynamic, instance-specific integration of external model predictions. Without access to raw tabular features or semantic information, our method constructs a context around each test instance using its nearest neighbors and the predictions from a pool of external models. Within this enriched context, we introduce Chain of Tabular Thoughts (CoT^2), a prompting strategy that guides LLMs through multi-step, interpretable reasoning, making still further progress toward expert-level decision-making. Experimental results show that our method outperforms well-tuned baselines and standard ensemble techniques across a wide range of tabular datasets.

High-stakes decision making involves reasoning under uncertainty about the future. In this work, we train language models to make predictions on open-ended forecasting questions. To scale up training data, we synthesize novel forecasting questions from global events reported in daily news, using a fully automated, careful curation recipe. We train the Qwen3 thinking models on our dataset, OpenForesight. To prevent leakage of future information during training and evaluation, we use an offline news corpus, both for data generation and retrieval in our forecasting system. Guided by a small validation set, we show the benefits of retrieval, and an improved reward function for reinforcement learning (RL). Once we obtain our final forecasting system, we perform held-out testing between May to August 2025. Our specialized model, OpenForecaster 8B, matches much larger proprietary models, with our training improving the accuracy, calibration, and consistency of predictions. We find calibration improvements from forecasting training generalize across popular benchmarks. We open-source all our models, code, and data to make research on language model forecasting broadly accessible.

Machine learning shows promise in predicting the outcome of legal cases, but most research has concentrated on civil law cases rather than case law systems. We identified two unique challenges in making legal case outcome predictions with case law. First, it is crucial to identify relevant precedent cases that serve as fundamental evidence for judges during decision-making. Second, it is necessary to consider the evolution of legal principles over time, as early cases may adhere to different legal contexts. In this paper, we proposed a new framework named PILOT (PredictIng Legal case OuTcome) for case outcome prediction. It comprises two modules for relevant case retrieval and temporal pattern handling, respectively. To benchmark the performance of existing legal case outcome prediction models, we curated a dataset from a large-scale case law database. We demonstrate the importance of accurately identifying precedent cases and mitigating the temporal shift when making predictions for case law, as our method shows a significant improvement over the prior methods that focus on civil law case outcome predictions.

Researchers often summarize their work in the form of posters. Posters provide a coherent and efficient way to convey core ideas from scientific papers. Generating a good scientific poster, however, is a complex and time consuming cognitive task, since such posters need to be readable, informative, and visually aesthetic. In this paper, for the first time, we study the challenging problem of learning to generate posters from scientific papers. To this end, a data-driven framework, that utilizes graphical models, is proposed. Specifically, given content to display, the key elements of a good poster, including panel layout and attributes of each panel, are learned and inferred from data. Then, given inferred layout and attributes, composition of graphical elements within each panel is synthesized. To learn and validate our model, we collect and make public a Poster-Paper dataset, which consists of scientific papers and corresponding posters with exhaustively labelled panels and attributes. Qualitative and quantitative results indicate the effectiveness of our approach.

Tabular data in knowledge-rich domains often carries a latent prior in the form of Boolean implication relationships (BIRs) between pairs of features. We mine such relationships with a sparse-exception binomial test. The mined implications form a typed directed graph, equivalent to a propositional rule base of 2-literal clauses. We encode this graph as the connectivity of a layered neural network, called BIRDNet, in which each hidden unit corresponds to one mined rule and binds only to its two features. We show two consequences of this design: First, the architecture is sparse by construction: at most 2/d of the weights in each BIR layer are active, where d is the input dimension. Second, the model is interpretable: every trained unit keeps a stable symbolic identity, so rules can be read off the network without surrogate models. Unlike most neurosymbolic models, BIRDNet does not consume an external rule base; its structural prior is mined from the data. We evaluate BIRDNet on six transcriptomic and proteomic benchmarks. Our results show that BIRDNet stays within 0.02 AUROC of the strongest dense baseline, at a small accuracy cost, while using up to 96times fewer active parameters than an architecture-matched dense MLP. First-layer rules recover known biological signatures across multiple cancer subtypes and tissue types, including canonical amplicons, lineage-defining co-expression modules, and immune-infiltration markers. Data and code are available at: https://github.com/MAHI-Group/BIRDNet.

We develop a statistical procedure to detect lookahead bias in economic forecasts generated by large language models (LLMs). Using a date-only recall query for a firm-date pair, we estimate the probability that the LLM has internalized information about the realized outcome, a statistic we term Lookahead Propensity (LAP). LAP is materially positive throughout the in-sample period and collapses essentially to zero right after the training-data cutoff. We show that a positive interaction between LAP and the LLM forecast in an accuracy regression indicates lookahead-bias contamination, and apply the test to two forecasting tasks: news headlines predicting stock returns and earnings call transcripts predicting capital expenditures. In both applications, the LLM forecast's predictive power is amplified on high-LAP firm-date pairs, and the interaction loses significance on post-training-cutoff samples. Our test provides a cost-efficient, diagnostic tool for assessing the validity and reliability of LLM-generated forecasts.

Anticipating supply chain disruptions before they materialize is a core challenge for firms and policymakers alike. A key difficulty is learning to reason reliably about infrequent, high-impact events from noisy and unstructured inputs - a setting where general-purpose models struggle without task-specific adaptation. We introduce an end-to-end framework that trains LLMs to produce calibrated probabilistic forecasts using realized disruption outcomes as supervision. The resulting model substantially outperforms strong baselines - including GPT-5 - on accuracy, calibration, and precision. We also show that training induces more structured and reliable probabilistic reasoning without explicit prompting. These results suggest a general pathway for training domain-specific forecasting models that produce decision-ready signals. To support transparency we open-source the evaluation dataset used in this study. Dataset: https://huggingface.co/datasets/LightningRodLabs/supply-chain-predictions

Data organized in tabular format is ubiquitous in real-world applications, and users often craft tables with biased feature definitions and flexibly set prediction targets of their interests. Thus, a rapid development of a robust, effective, dataset-versatile, user-friendly tabular prediction approach is highly desired. While Gradient Boosting Decision Trees (GBDTs) and existing deep neural networks (DNNs) have been extensively utilized by professional users, they present several challenges for casual users, particularly: (i) the dilemma of model selection due to their different dataset preferences, and (ii) the need for heavy hyperparameter searching, failing which their performances are deemed inadequate. In this paper, we delve into this question: Can we develop a deep learning model that serves as a "sure bet" solution for a wide range of tabular prediction tasks, while also being user-friendly for casual users? We delve into three key drawbacks of deep tabular models, encompassing: (P1) lack of rotational variance property, (P2) large data demand, and (P3) over-smooth solution. We propose ExcelFormer, addressing these challenges through a semi-permeable attention module that effectively constrains the influence of less informative features to break the DNNs' rotational invariance property (for P1), data augmentation approaches tailored for tabular data (for P2), and attentive feedforward network to boost the model fitting capability (for P3). These designs collectively make ExcelFormer a "sure bet" solution for diverse tabular datasets. Extensive and stratified experiments conducted on real-world datasets demonstrate that our model outperforms previous approaches across diverse tabular data prediction tasks, and this framework can be friendly to casual users, offering ease of use without the heavy hyperparameter tuning.

Link prediction, a fundamental task on graphs, has proven indispensable in various applications, e.g., friend recommendation, protein analysis, and drug interaction prediction. However, since datasets span a multitude of domains, they could have distinct underlying mechanisms of link formation. Evidence in existing literature underscores the absence of a universally best algorithm suitable for all datasets. In this paper, we endeavor to explore principles of link prediction across diverse datasets from a data-centric perspective. We recognize three fundamental factors critical to link prediction: local structural proximity, global structural proximity, and feature proximity. We then unearth relationships among those factors where (i) global structural proximity only shows effectiveness when local structural proximity is deficient. (ii) The incompatibility can be found between feature and structural proximity. Such incompatibility leads to GNNs for Link Prediction (GNN4LP) consistently underperforming on edges where the feature proximity factor dominates. Inspired by these new insights from a data perspective, we offer practical instruction for GNN4LP model design and guidelines for selecting appropriate benchmark datasets for more comprehensive evaluations.

Background: Electronic Health Records hold detailed longitudinal information about each patient's health status and general clinical history, a large portion of which is stored within the unstructured text. Existing approaches focus mostly on structured data and a subset of single-domain outcomes. We explore how temporal modelling of patients from free text and structured data, using deep generative transformers can be used to forecast a wide range of future disorders, substances, procedures or findings. Methods: We present Foresight, a novel transformer-based pipeline that uses named entity recognition and linking tools to convert document text into structured, coded concepts, followed by providing probabilistic forecasts for future medical events such as disorders, substances, procedures and findings. We processed the entire free-text portion from three different hospital datasets totalling 811336 patients covering both physical and mental health. Findings: On tests in two UK hospitals (King's College Hospital, South London and Maudsley) and the US MIMIC-III dataset precision@10 0.68, 0.76 and 0.88 was achieved for forecasting the next disorder in a patient timeline, while precision@10 of 0.80, 0.81 and 0.91 was achieved for forecasting the next biomedical concept. Foresight was also validated on 34 synthetic patient timelines by five clinicians and achieved relevancy of 97% for the top forecasted candidate disorder. As a generative model, it can forecast follow-on biomedical concepts for as many steps as required. Interpretation: Foresight is a general-purpose model for biomedical concept modelling that can be used for real-world risk forecasting, virtual trials and clinical research to study the progression of disorders, simulate interventions and counterfactuals, and educational purposes.

The effects of ligand binding on protein structures and their in vivo functions carry numerous implications for modern biomedical research and biotechnology development efforts such as drug discovery. Although several deep learning (DL) methods and benchmarks designed for protein-ligand docking have recently been introduced, to date no prior works have systematically studied the behavior of the latest docking and structure prediction methods within the broadly applicable context of (1) using predicted (apo) protein structures for docking (e.g., for applicability to new proteins); (2) binding multiple (cofactor) ligands concurrently to a given target protein (e.g., for enzyme design); and (3) having no prior knowledge of binding pockets (e.g., for generalization to unknown pockets). To enable a deeper understanding of docking methods' real-world utility, we introduce PoseBench, the first comprehensive benchmark for broadly applicable protein-ligand docking. PoseBench enables researchers to rigorously and systematically evaluate DL methods for apo-to-holo protein-ligand docking and protein-ligand structure prediction using both primary ligand and multi-ligand benchmark datasets, the latter of which we introduce for the first time to the DL community. Empirically, using PoseBench, we find that (1) DL co-folding methods generally outperform comparable conventional and DL docking baselines, yet popular methods such as AlphaFold 3 are still challenged by prediction targets with novel protein sequences; (2) certain DL co-folding methods are highly sensitive to their input multiple sequence alignments, while others are not; and (3) DL methods struggle to strike a balance between structural accuracy and chemical specificity when predicting novel or multi-ligand protein targets. Code, data, tutorials, and benchmark results are available at https://github.com/BioinfoMachineLearning/PoseBench.

Accurately predicting the three-dimensional structures of protein-ligand complexes remains a fundamental challenge in computational drug discovery that limits the pace and success of therapeutic design. Deep learning methods have recently shown strong potential as structural prediction tools, achieving promising accuracy across diverse biomolecular systems. However, their performance and utility are constrained by scarce experimental data, inefficient architectures, physically invalid poses, and the limited ability to exploit auxiliary information available at inference. To address these issues, we introduce Pearl (Placing Every Atom in the Right Location), a foundation model for protein-ligand cofolding at scale. Pearl addresses these challenges with three key innovations: (1) training recipes that include large-scale synthetic data to overcome data scarcity; (2) architectures that incorporate an SO(3)-equivariant diffusion module to inherently respect 3D rotational symmetries, improving generalization and sample efficiency, and (3) controllable inference, including a generalized multi-chain templating system supporting both protein and non-polymeric components as well as dual unconditional/conditional modes. Pearl establishes a new state-of-the-art performance in protein-ligand cofolding. On the key metric of generating accurate (RMSD < 2 Å) and physically valid poses, Pearl surpasses AlphaFold 3 and other open source baselines on the public Runs N' Poses and PoseBusters benchmarks, delivering 14.5% and 14.2% improvements, respectively, over the next best model. In the pocket-conditional cofolding regime, Pearl delivers 3.6times improvement on a proprietary set of challenging, real-world drug targets at the more rigorous RMSD < 1 Å threshold. Finally, we demonstrate that model performance correlates directly with synthetic dataset size used in training.

Predictive models play a crucial role in the financial industry, enabling risk prediction, fraud detection, and personalized recommendations, where slight changes in core model performance can result in billions of dollars in revenue or losses. While financial institutions have access to enormous amounts of user data (e.g., bank transactions, in-app events, and customer support logs), leveraging this data effectively remains challenging due to its complexity and scale. Thus, in many financial institutions, most production models follow traditional machine learning (ML) approaches by converting unstructured data into manually engineered tabular features. Conversely, other domains (e.g., natural language processing) have effectively utilized self-supervised learning (SSL) to learn rich representations from raw data, removing the need for manual feature extraction. In this paper, we investigate using transformer-based representation learning models for transaction data, hypothesizing that these models, trained on massive data, can provide a novel and powerful approach to understanding customer behavior. We propose a new method enabling the use of SSL with transaction data by adapting transformer-based models to handle both textual and structured attributes. Our approach, denoted nuFormer, includes an end-to-end fine-tuning method that integrates user embeddings with existing tabular features. Our experiments demonstrate improvements for large-scale recommendation problems at Nubank. Notably, these gains are achieved solely through enhanced representation learning rather than incorporating new data sources.

We introduce the Polymarket-v1 Database: the complete on-chain trade archive of Polymarket's first-generation CTF Exchange on Polygon, spanning 2022-11-21 to 2026-04-28 and covering the full contract lifecycle from first settlement to natural termination. The dataset comprises 1.20 billion trade records across 1.30 million markets with $61 billion in nominal volume. Its defining feature is 100% ground-truth aggressor direction derived from the blockchain settlement layer, a property unavailable in existing prediction market archives, which rely on heuristic inference. We use this truth-aligned archive to benchmark standard microstructure tools and document three findings. First, the tick rule and bulk volume classification achieve near-random aggregate accuracy (49.83% and 50.51%), but this masks a systematic, correctable price-level gradient driven by positive trade direction autocorrelation and concentrated market-making -- two structural features of prediction markets that violate the mean-reversion assumption embedded in classical classifiers. Second, these classification errors propagate into downstream metrics: inferred VPIN diverges substantially from ground-truth VPIN, and OFI estimates are directionally biased, with material consequences for Transaction Cost Analysis. Third, ground-truth microstructure quality predicts forecasting performance in ways that classification-based proxies cannot recover: True VPIN positively predicts Brier scores, while Gibbs spread negatively predicts them -- a selection effect reflecting that high-spread niche markets attract informed specialists rather than noise traders. Replacing ground-truth metrics with classified proxies attenuates both relationships, illustrating that measurement accuracy at the transaction level is a prerequisite for reliable inference about prediction market design and probability calibration.

Predicting invoice payment is valuable in multiple industries and supports decision-making processes in most financial workflows. However, the challenge in this realm involves dealing with complex data and the lack of data related to decisions-making processes not registered in the accounts receivable system. This work presents a prototype developed as a solution devised during a partnership with a multinational bank to support collectors in predicting invoices payment. The proposed prototype reached up to 77\% of accuracy, which improved the prioritization of customers and supported the daily work of collectors. With the presented results, one expects to support researchers dealing with the problem of invoice payment prediction to get insights and examples of how to tackle issues present in real data.

Large language models are moving from static text generators toward real-world decision-support systems, where forecasting is a composite capability that links information gathering, evidence integration, situational judgment, and action-oriented decision making. This capability is in broad demand across finance, policy, industry, and scientific research, yet its evaluation remains difficult: live benchmarks evaluate forecasts before answers exist, making them the cleanest way to measure forecasting ability, but they expire once events resolve; retrospective benchmarks are reproducible, but they cannot reliably distinguish genuine forecasting from facts a model may have already learned during pretraining. Prompting models to "pretend not to know" cannot replace a genuine knowledge boundary. We propose OracleProto, a reproducible framework for evaluating LLM native forecasting capability. OracleProto reconstructs resolved events into time-bounded forecasting samples by combining model-cutoff-aligned sample admission, tool-level temporal masking, content-level leakage detection, discrete answer normalization, and hierarchical scoring. Instantiated on a FutureX-Past-derived dataset with six contemporary LLMs, OracleProto distinguishes forecasting quality, sampling stability, and cost efficiency under controlled information boundaries, while reducing residual leakage to the 1% level, an order of magnitude below tool-only temporal filtering. OracleProto turns LLM forecasting from one-off evaluation into an auditable, reusable, and trainable dataset-level capability, providing a unified interface for fair cross-model comparison and a controlled signal source for downstream SFT and RL. Code and data are available at https://github.com/MaYiding/OracleProto and https://huggingface.co/datasets/MaYiding/OracleProto.

Complex prediction models such as deep learning are the output from fitting machine learning, neural networks, or AI models to a set of training data. These are now standard tools in science. A key challenge with the current generation of models is that they are highly parameterized, which makes describing and interpreting the prediction strategies difficult. We use topological data analysis to transform these complex prediction models into pictures representing a topological view. The result is a map of the predictions that enables inspection. The methods scale up to large datasets across different domains and enable us to detect labeling errors in training data, understand generalization in image classification, and inspect predictions of likely pathogenic mutations in the BRCA1 gene.

Recent research in representation learning utilizes large databases of proteins or molecules to acquire knowledge of drug and protein structures through unsupervised learning techniques. These pre-trained representations have proven to significantly enhance the accuracy of subsequent tasks, such as predicting the affinity between drugs and target proteins. In this study, we demonstrate that by incorporating knowledge graphs from diverse sources and modalities into the sequences or SMILES representation, we can further enrich the representation and achieve state-of-the-art results on established benchmark datasets. We provide preprocessed and integrated data obtained from 7 public sources, which encompass over 30M triples. Additionally, we make available the pre-trained models based on this data, along with the reported outcomes of their performance on three widely-used benchmark datasets for drug-target binding affinity prediction found in the Therapeutic Data Commons (TDC) benchmarks. Additionally, we make the source code for training models on benchmark datasets publicly available. Our objective in releasing these pre-trained models, accompanied by clean data for model pretraining and benchmark results, is to encourage research in knowledge-enhanced representation learning.

This paper highlights the need to bring document classification benchmarking closer to real-world applications, both in the nature of data tested (X: multi-channel, multi-paged, multi-industry; Y: class distributions and label set variety) and in classification tasks considered (f: multi-page document, page stream, and document bundle classification, ...). We identify the lack of public multi-page document classification datasets, formalize different classification tasks arising in application scenarios, and motivate the value of targeting efficient multi-page document representations. An experimental study on proposed multi-page document classification datasets demonstrates that current benchmarks have become irrelevant and need to be updated to evaluate complete documents, as they naturally occur in practice. This reality check also calls for more mature evaluation methodologies, covering calibration evaluation, inference complexity (time-memory), and a range of realistic distribution shifts (e.g., born-digital vs. scanning noise, shifting page order). Our study ends on a hopeful note by recommending concrete avenues for future improvements.}

Black-box machine learning models are now routinely used in high-risk settings, like medical diagnostics, which demand uncertainty quantification to avoid consequential model failures. Conformal prediction is a user-friendly paradigm for creating statistically rigorous uncertainty sets/intervals for the predictions of such models. Critically, the sets are valid in a distribution-free sense: they possess explicit, non-asymptotic guarantees even without distributional assumptions or model assumptions. One can use conformal prediction with any pre-trained model, such as a neural network, to produce sets that are guaranteed to contain the ground truth with a user-specified probability, such as 90%. It is easy-to-understand, easy-to-use, and general, applying naturally to problems arising in the fields of computer vision, natural language processing, deep reinforcement learning, and so on. This hands-on introduction is aimed to provide the reader a working understanding of conformal prediction and related distribution-free uncertainty quantification techniques with one self-contained document. We lead the reader through practical theory for and examples of conformal prediction and describe its extensions to complex machine learning tasks involving structured outputs, distribution shift, time-series, outliers, models that abstain, and more. Throughout, there are many explanatory illustrations, examples, and code samples in Python. With each code sample comes a Jupyter notebook implementing the method on a real-data example; the notebooks can be accessed and easily run using our codebase.

Technologies that function at room temperature often require magnets with a high Curie temperature, T_C, and can be improved with better materials. Discovering magnetic materials with a substantial T_C is challenging because of the large number of candidates and the cost of fabricating and testing them. Using the two largest known data sets of experimental Curie temperatures, we develop machine-learning models to make rapid T_C predictions solely based on the chemical composition of a material. We train a random forest model and a k-NN one and predict on an initial dataset of over 2,500 materials and then validate the model on a new dataset containing over 3,000 entries. The accuracy is compared for multiple compounds' representations ("descriptors") and regression approaches. A random forest model provides the most accurate predictions and is not improved by dimensionality reduction or by using more complex descriptors based on atomic properties. A random forest model trained on a combination of both datasets shows that cobalt-rich and iron-rich materials have the highest Curie temperatures for all binary and ternary compounds. An analysis of the model reveals systematic error that causes the model to over-predict low-T_C materials and under-predict high-T_C materials. For exhaustive searches to find new high-T_C materials, analysis of the learning rate suggests either that much more data is needed or that more efficient descriptors are necessary.

Highly accurate biomolecular structure prediction is a key component of developing biomolecular foundation models, and one of the most critical aspects of building foundation models is identifying the recipes for scaling the model. In this work, we present SeedFold, a folding model that successfully scales up the model capacity. Our contributions are threefold: first, we identify an effective width-scaling strategy for the Pairformer to increase representation capacity; second, we introduce a novel linear triangular attention that reduces computational complexity to enable efficient scaling; finally, we construct a large-scale distillation dataset to substantially enlarge the training set. Experiments on FoldBench show that SeedFold outperforms AlphaFold3 on most protein-related tasks.

Property prediction plays an important role in material discovery. As an initial step to eventually develop a foundation model for material science, we introduce a new autoencoder called the MHG-GNN, which combines graph neural network (GNN) with Molecular Hypergraph Grammar (MHG). Results on a variety of property prediction tasks with diverse materials show that MHG-GNN is promising.

Matbench Discovery simulates the deployment of machine learning (ML) energy models in a high-throughput search for stable inorganic crystals. We address the disconnect between (i) thermodynamic stability and formation energy and (ii) in-domain vs out-of-distribution performance. Alongside this paper, we publish a Python package to aid with future model submissions and a growing online leaderboard with further insights into trade-offs between various performance metrics. To answer the question which ML methodology performs best at materials discovery, our initial release explores a variety of models including random forests, graph neural networks (GNN), one-shot predictors, iterative Bayesian optimizers and universal interatomic potentials (UIP). Ranked best-to-worst by their test set F1 score on thermodynamic stability prediction, we find CHGNet > M3GNet > MACE > ALIGNN > MEGNet > CGCNN > CGCNN+P > Wrenformer > BOWSR > Voronoi tessellation fingerprints with random forest. The top 3 models are UIPs, the winning methodology for ML-guided materials discovery, achieving F1 scores of ~0.6 for crystal stability classification and discovery acceleration factors (DAF) of up to 5x on the first 10k most stable predictions compared to dummy selection from our test set. We also highlight a sharp disconnect between commonly used global regression metrics and more task-relevant classification metrics. Accurate regressors are susceptible to unexpectedly high false-positive rates if those accurate predictions lie close to the decision boundary at 0 eV/atom above the convex hull where most materials are. Our results highlight the need to focus on classification metrics that actually correlate with improved stability hit rate.

Progress in large language models is constrained by an evaluation bottleneck: build a benchmark, evaluate models and settings, then iterate. We therefore ask a simple question: can we forecast outcomes before running any experiments? We study text-only performance forecasting: estimating a model's score from a redacted task description and intended configuration, with no access to dataset instances. To support systematic study, we curate PRECOG, a corpus of redacted description-performance pairs spanning diverse tasks, domains, and metrics. Experiments show the task is challenging but feasible: models equipped with a retrieval module that excludes source papers achieve moderate prediction performance with well-calibrated uncertainty, reaching mean absolute error as low as 8.7 on the Accuracy subset at high-confidence thresholds. Our analysis indicates that stronger reasoning models engage in diverse, iterative querying, whereas current open-source models lag and often skip retrieval or gather evidence with limited diversity. We further test a zero-leakage setting, forecasting on newly released datasets or experiments before their papers are indexed, where GPT-5 with built-in web search still attains nontrivial prediction accuracy. Overall, our corpus and analyses offer an initial step toward open-ended anticipatory evaluation, supporting difficulty estimation and smarter experiment prioritization.

We present a foundation model-derived method to identify highly informative tokens and events in electronic health records. Our approach considers incoming data in the entire context of a patient's hospitalization and so can flag anomalous events that rule-based approaches would consider within a normal range. We demonstrate that the events our model flags are significant for predicting downstream patient outcomes and that a fraction of events identified as carrying little information can safely be dropped. Additionally, we show how informativeness can help interpret the predictions of prognostic models trained on foundation model-derived representations.

In order to make accurate predictions of material properties, current machine-learning approaches generally require large amounts of data, which are often not available in practice. In this work, an all-round framework is presented which relies on a feedforward neural network, the selection of physically-meaningful features and, when applicable, joint-learning. Next to being faster in terms of training time, this approach is shown to outperform current graph-network models on small datasets. In particular, the vibrational entropy at 305 K of crystals is predicted with a mean absolute test error of 0.009 meV/K/atom (four times lower than previous studies). Furthermore, joint-learning reduces the test error compared to single-target learning and enables the prediction of multiple properties at once, such as temperature functions. Finally, the selection algorithm highlights the most important features and thus helps understanding the underlying physics.

Large language models (LLMs) trained with next-word-prediction have achieved success as clinical foundation models. Representations from these language backbones yield strong linear probe performance across biomedical tasks, suggesting that patient semantics emerge from next-token prediction at scale. However, this paradigm treats patients as a document to be summarized rather than a dynamical system to be simulated; a patient's trajectory emerges from their state evolving under interventions and time, requiring models that simulate dynamics rather than predict tokens. To address this, we introduce SMB-Structure, a world model for structured EHR that grounds a joint-embedding prediction architecture (JEPA) with next-token prediction (SFT). SFT grounds our model to reconstruct future patient states in token space, while JEPA predicts those futures in latent space from the initial patient representation alone, forcing trajectory dynamics to be encoded before the next state is observed. We validate across two large-scale cohorts: Memorial Sloan Kettering (23,319 oncology patients; 323,000+ patient-years) and INSPECT (19,402 pulmonary embolism patients). Using a linear probe evaluated at multiple points along the disease trajectory, we demonstrate that our training paradigm learns embeddings that capture disease dynamics not recoverable by autoregressive baselines, enabling SMB-Structure to achieve competitive performance on complex tasks characterized by high patient heterogeneity. Model weights are available at https://huggingface.co/standardmodelbio/SMB-v1-1.7B-Structure.

Every data selection method inherently has a target. In practice, these targets often emerge implicitly through benchmark-driven iteration: researchers develop selection strategies, train models, measure benchmark performance, then refine accordingly. This raises a natural question: what happens when we make this optimization explicit? To explore this, we propose benchmark-targeted ranking (BETR), a simple method that selects pretraining documents based on similarity to benchmark training examples. BETR embeds benchmark examples and a sample of pretraining documents in a shared space, scores this sample by similarity to benchmarks, then trains a lightweight classifier to predict these scores for the full corpus. We compare data selection methods by training over 500 models spanning 10^{19} to 10^{22} FLOPs and fitting scaling laws to them. From this, we find that simply aligning pretraining data to evaluation benchmarks using BETR achieves a 2.1x compute multiplier over DCLM-Baseline (4.7x over unfiltered data) and improves performance on 9 out of 10 tasks across all scales. BETR also generalizes well: when targeting a diverse set of benchmarks disjoint from our evaluation suite, it still matches or outperforms baselines. Our scaling analysis further reveals a clear trend: larger models require less aggressive filtering. Overall, our findings show that directly matching pretraining data to target tasks precisely shapes model capabilities and highlight that optimal selection strategies must adapt to model scale.

Document structure analysis, aka document layout analysis, is crucial for understanding both the physical layout and logical structure of documents, serving information retrieval, document summarization, knowledge extraction, etc. Hierarchical Document Structure Analysis (HDSA) specifically aims to restore the hierarchical structure of documents created using authoring software with hierarchical schemas. Previous research has primarily followed two approaches: one focuses on tackling specific subtasks of HDSA in isolation, such as table detection or reading order prediction, while the other adopts a unified framework that uses multiple branches or modules, each designed to address a distinct task. In this work, we propose a unified relation prediction approach for HDSA, called UniHDSA, which treats various HDSA sub-tasks as relation prediction problems and consolidates relation prediction labels into a unified label space. This allows a single relation prediction module to handle multiple tasks simultaneously, whether at a page-level or document-level structure analysis. To validate the effectiveness of UniHDSA, we develop a multimodal end-to-end system based on Transformer architectures. Extensive experimental results demonstrate that our approach achieves state-of-the-art performance on a hierarchical document structure analysis benchmark, Comp-HRDoc, and competitive results on a large-scale document layout analysis dataset, DocLayNet, effectively illustrating the superiority of our method across all sub-tasks. The Comp-HRDoc benchmark and UniHDSA's configurations are publicly available at https://github.com/microsoft/CompHRDoc.

Faced with distribution shift between training and test set, we wish to detect and quantify the shift, and to correct our classifiers without test set labels. Motivated by medical diagnosis, where diseases (targets) cause symptoms (observations), we focus on label shift, where the label marginal p(y) changes but the conditional p(x| y) does not. We propose Black Box Shift Estimation (BBSE) to estimate the test distribution p(y). BBSE exploits arbitrary black box predictors to reduce dimensionality prior to shift correction. While better predictors give tighter estimates, BBSE works even when predictors are biased, inaccurate, or uncalibrated, so long as their confusion matrices are invertible. We prove BBSE's consistency, bound its error, and introduce a statistical test that uses BBSE to detect shift. We also leverage BBSE to correct classifiers. Experiments demonstrate accurate estimates and improved prediction, even on high-dimensional datasets of natural images.

We present PharmaShip, a real-world Chinese dataset of scanned pharmaceutical shipping documents designed to stress-test pre-trained text-layout models under noisy OCR and heterogeneous templates. PharmaShip covers three complementary tasks-sequence entity recognition (SER), relation extraction (RE), and reading order prediction (ROP)-and adopts an entity-centric evaluation protocol to minimize confounds across architectures. We benchmark five representative baselines spanning pixel-aware and geometry-aware families (LiLT, LayoutLMv3-base, GeoLayoutLM and their available RORE-enhanced variants), and standardize preprocessing, splits, and optimization. Experiments show that pixels and explicit geometry provide complementary inductive biases, yet neither alone is sufficient: injecting reading-order-oriented regularization consistently improves SER and EL and yields the most robust configuration, while longer positional coverage stabilizes late-page predictions and reduces truncation artifacts. ROP is accurate at the word level but challenging at the segment level, reflecting boundary ambiguity and long-range crossings. PharmaShip thus establishes a controlled, reproducible benchmark for safety-critical document understanding in the pharmaceutical domain and highlights sequence-aware constraints as a transferable bias for structure modeling. We release the dataset at https://github.com/KevinYuLei/PharmaShip.

While deep learning has revolutionized the prediction of rigid protein structures, modelling the conformational ensembles of Intrinsically Disordered Proteins (IDPs) remains a key frontier. Current AI paradigms present a trade-off: Protein Language Models (PLMs) capture evolutionary statistics but lack explicit physical grounding, while generative models trained to model full ensembles are computationally expensive. In this work we critically assess these limits and propose a path forward. We introduce GeoGraph, a simulation-informed surrogate trained to predict ensemble-averaged statistics of residue-residue contact-map topology directly from sequence. By featurizing coarse-grained molecular dynamics simulations into residue- and sequence-level graph descriptors, we create a robust and information-rich learning target. Our evaluation demonstrates that this approach yields representations that are more predictive of key biophysical properties than existing methods.

We investigate the predictability of large language model (LLM) capabilities: given records of past experiments using different model families, numbers of parameters, tasks, and numbers of in-context examples, can we accurately predict LLM performance on new experiment configurations? Answering this question has practical implications for LLM users (e.g., deciding which models to try), developers (e.g., prioritizing evaluation on representative tasks), and the research community (e.g., identifying hard-to-predict capabilities that warrant further investigation). We study the performance prediction problem on experiment records from BIG-bench. On a random train-test split, an MLP-based predictor achieves an R^2 score greater than 95%, indicating the presence of learnable patterns within the experiment records. We then formulate the problem of searching for "small-bench," an informative subset of BIG-bench tasks from which the performance on the full set can be maximally recovered. We find a subset as informative as BIG-bench Hard for evaluating new model families, while being 3times smaller. Additionally, we find competitive subsets by clustering task representations learned by our MLP-based predictor and selecting tasks close to cluster centroids, highlighting the importance of task diversity in constructing "small-bench."

Tabular data -- structured, heterogeneous, spreadsheet-style data with rows and columns -- is widely used in practice across many domains. However, while recent foundation models have reduced the need for developing task-specific datasets and predictors in domains such as language modeling and computer vision, this transfer learning paradigm has not had similar impact in the tabular domain. In this work, we seek to narrow this gap and present TabuLa-8B, a language model for tabular prediction. We define a process for extracting a large, high-quality training dataset from the TabLib corpus, proposing methods for tabular data filtering and quality control. Using the resulting dataset, which comprises over 1.6B rows from 3.1M unique tables, we fine-tune a Llama 3-8B large language model (LLM) for tabular data prediction (classification and binned regression) using a novel packing and attention scheme for tabular prediction. Through evaluation across a test suite of 329 datasets, we find that TabuLa-8B has zero-shot accuracy on unseen tables that is over 15 percentage points (pp) higher than random guessing, a feat that is not possible with existing state-of-the-art tabular prediction models (e.g. XGBoost, TabPFN). In the few-shot setting (1-32 shots), without any fine-tuning on the target datasets, TabuLa-8B is 5-15 pp more accurate than XGBoost and TabPFN models that are explicitly trained on equal, or even up to 16x more data. We release our model, code, and data along with the publication of this paper.

Paging is a prototypical problem in the area of online algorithms. It has also played a central role in the development of learning-augmented algorithms -- a recent line of research that aims to ameliorate the shortcomings of classical worst-case analysis by giving algorithms access to predictions. Such predictions can typically be generated using a machine learning approach, but they are inherently imperfect. Previous work on learning-augmented paging has investigated predictions on (i) when the current page will be requested again (reoccurrence predictions), (ii) the current state of the cache in an optimal algorithm (state predictions), (iii) all requests until the current page gets requested again, and (iv) the relative order in which pages are requested. We study learning-augmented paging from the new perspective of requiring the least possible amount of predicted information. More specifically, the predictions obtained alongside each page request are limited to one bit only. We consider two natural such setups: (i) discard predictions, in which the predicted bit denotes whether or not it is ``safe'' to evict this page, and (ii) phase predictions, where the bit denotes whether the current page will be requested in the next phase (for an appropriate partitioning of the input into phases). We develop algorithms for each of the two setups that satisfy all three desirable properties of learning-augmented algorithms -- that is, they are consistent, robust and smooth -- despite being limited to a one-bit prediction per request. We also present lower bounds establishing that our algorithms are essentially best possible.

Predicting how a drug-like molecule binds to a specific protein target is a core problem in drug discovery. An extremely fast computational binding method would enable key applications such as fast virtual screening or drug engineering. Existing methods are computationally expensive as they rely on heavy candidate sampling coupled with scoring, ranking, and fine-tuning steps. We challenge this paradigm with EquiBind, an SE(3)-equivariant geometric deep learning model performing direct-shot prediction of both i) the receptor binding location (blind docking) and ii) the ligand's bound pose and orientation. EquiBind achieves significant speed-ups and better quality compared to traditional and recent baselines. Further, we show extra improvements when coupling it with existing fine-tuning techniques at the cost of increased running time. Finally, we propose a novel and fast fine-tuning model that adjusts torsion angles of a ligand's rotatable bonds based on closed-form global minima of the von Mises angular distance to a given input atomic point cloud, avoiding previous expensive differential evolution strategies for energy minimization.

A major technique in learning-augmented online algorithms is combining multiple algorithms or predictors. Since the performance of each predictor may vary over time, it is desirable to use not the single best predictor as a benchmark, but rather a dynamic combination which follows different predictors at different times. We design algorithms that combine predictions and are competitive against such dynamic combinations for a wide class of online problems, namely, metrical task systems. Against the best (in hindsight) unconstrained combination of ell predictors, we obtain a competitive ratio of O(ell^2), and show that this is best possible. However, for a benchmark with slightly constrained number of switches between different predictors, we can get a (1+epsilon)-competitive algorithm. Moreover, our algorithms can be adapted to access predictors in a bandit-like fashion, querying only one predictor at a time. An unexpected implication of one of our lower bounds is a new structural insight about covering formulations for the k-server problem.

Tabular data prediction is a fundamental machine learning task for many applications. Existing methods predominantly employ discriminative modeling and operate under the assumption of a fixed target column, necessitating re-training for every new predictive task. Inspired by the generative power of large language models (LLMs), this paper exploits the idea of building universal tabular data predictors based on generative modeling, namely UniPredict. Here, we demonstrate the scalability of an LLM to extensive tabular datasets, enabling it to comprehend diverse tabular inputs and predict target variables following the provided instructions. Specifically, we train a single LLM on an aggregation of 169 tabular datasets with diverse targets and compare its performance against baselines that are trained on each dataset separately. We observe this versatile UniPredict model demonstrates an advantage over other models, ranging from 5.4% to 13.4%, when compared with the best tree-boosting baseline and the best neural network baseline, respectively. We further test UniPredict in few-shot learning settings on another 62 tabular datasets. Our method achieves strong performance in quickly adapting to new tasks. In low-resource few-shot setup, we observed a 100%+ performance advantage compared with XGBoost, and significant margin over all baselines. We envision that UniPredict sheds light on developing a universal tabular data prediction system that learns from data at scale and serves a wide range of prediction tasks.

Protein-ligand modeling underpins computational drug discovery and molecular design. Existing protein-ligand benchmarks typically evaluate whether a protein and ligand interact and how strongly they bind, through tasks such as binary binding prediction and affinity regression. However, these evaluations provide limited evidence of whether models can localize binding sites or identify the non-covalent interactions underlying molecular recognition. To address this gap, we introduce InteractBind, a large-scale protein-ligand dataset comprising approximately 100k protein-ligand pairs, together with a benchmark for fine-grained evaluation. The core fine-grained task is that of binding-site localization, which uses protein-residue and ligand-atom interaction maps spanning six major types of non-covalent interactions to assess whether model-derived interaction maps localize binding sites. InteractBind further includes binding affinity and protein similarity-controlled splits to support realistic generalization assessment. Using InteractBind, we evaluate eight existing sequence-based and interaction-aware models, assessing binary binding prediction and binding-site localization. Results reveal limited binding-site localization despite strong binary binding prediction, with marked variation across non-covalent interaction types. Overall, InteractBind establishes a benchmark paradigm that encourages the development of more interpretable and physically grounded protein-ligand models.

Predicting real-world events from live market signals demands systems that fuse qualitative news with quantitative order-book dynamics under strict temporal discipline -- a challenge existing benchmarks fail to capture. We present PolyBench, a multimodal benchmark derived from Polymarket that records point-in-time cross-sections of 38,666 binary prediction markets spanning 4,997 events, synchronously coupling each snapshot with a Central Limit Order Book (CLOB) state and a real-time news stream. Using PolyBench, we evaluate seven state-of-the-art Large Language Models -- spanning open- and closed-source families -- generating 36,165 predictions under identical, timestamp-locked market states collected between February 6 and 12, 2026. Our multidimensional framework assesses directional accuracy, our proposed Confidence-Weighted Return (CWR), Annualized Percentage Yield (APY), and Sharpe ratio via realistic order-book execution simulation. The results reveal a pronounced performance divergence: only two of seven models achieve positive financial returns -- MiMo-V2-Flash at 17.6% CWR and Gemini-3-Flash at 6.2% CWR -- while the remaining five incur losses despite uniformly high stated confidence. These findings highlight the gap between surface-level language fluency and genuine probabilistic reasoning under live market uncertainty, and establish PolyBench as a contamination-proof, financially-grounded evaluation standard for future LLM research. Our dataset and code available at \href{https://github.com/PolyBench/PolyBench{https://github.com/PolyBench/PolyBench}}.

This technical report describes the AIA Forecaster, a Large Language Model (LLM)-based system for judgmental forecasting using unstructured data. The AIA Forecaster approach combines three core elements: agentic search over high-quality news sources, a supervisor agent that reconciles disparate forecasts for the same event, and a set of statistical calibration techniques to counter behavioral biases in large language models. On the ForecastBench benchmark (Karger et al., 2024), the AIA Forecaster achieves performance equal to human superforecasters, surpassing prior LLM baselines. In addition to reporting on ForecastBench, we also introduce a more challenging forecasting benchmark sourced from liquid prediction markets. While the AIA Forecaster underperforms market consensus on this benchmark, an ensemble combining AIA Forecaster with market consensus outperforms consensus alone, demonstrating that our forecaster provides additive information. Our work establishes a new state of the art in AI forecasting and provides practical, transferable recommendations for future research. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work that verifiably achieves expert-level forecasting at scale.

We examine the potential of ChatGPT and other large language models in predicting stock market returns using news headlines. We use ChatGPT to assess whether each headline is good, bad, or neutral for firms' stock prices. We document a significantly positive correlation between ChatGPT scores and subsequent daily stock returns. We find that ChatGPT outperforms traditional sentiment analysis methods. More basic models such as GPT-1, GPT-2, and BERT cannot accurately forecast returns, indicating return predictability is an emerging capacity of complex language models. Long-short strategies based on ChatGPT-4 deliver the highest Sharpe ratio. Furthermore, we find predictability in both small and large stocks, suggesting market underreaction to company news. Predictability is stronger among smaller stocks and stocks with bad news, consistent with limits-to-arbitrage also playing an important role. Finally, we propose a new method to evaluate and understand the models' reasoning capabilities. Overall, our results suggest that incorporating advanced language models into the investment decision-making process can yield more accurate predictions and enhance the performance of quantitative trading strategies.

We introduce TabRepo, a new dataset of tabular model evaluations and predictions. TabRepo contains the predictions and metrics of 1310 models evaluated on 200 classification and regression datasets. We illustrate the benefit of our dataset in multiple ways. First, we show that it allows to perform analysis such as comparing Hyperparameter Optimization against current AutoML systems while also considering ensembling at marginal cost by using precomputed model predictions. Second, we show that our dataset can be readily leveraged to perform transfer-learning. In particular, we show that applying standard transfer-learning techniques allows to outperform current state-of-the-art tabular systems in accuracy, runtime and latency.

This paper introduces CommonForms, a web-scale dataset for form field detection. It casts the problem of form field detection as object detection: given an image of a page, predict the location and type (Text Input, Choice Button, Signature) of form fields. The dataset is constructed by filtering Common Crawl to find PDFs that have fillable elements. Starting with 8 million documents, the filtering process is used to arrive at a final dataset of roughly 55k documents that have over 450k pages. Analysis shows that the dataset contains a diverse mixture of languages and domains; one third of the pages are non-English, and among the 14 classified domains, no domain makes up more than 25% of the dataset. In addition, this paper presents a family of form field detectors, FFDNet-Small and FFDNet-Large, which attain a very high average precision on the CommonForms test set. Each model cost less than $500 to train. Ablation results show that high-resolution inputs are crucial for high-quality form field detection, and that the cleaning process improves data efficiency over using all PDFs that have fillable fields in Common Crawl. A qualitative analysis shows that they outperform a popular, commercially available PDF reader that can prepare forms. Unlike the most popular commercially available solutions, FFDNet can predict checkboxes in addition to text and signature fields. This is, to our knowledge, the first large scale dataset released for form field detection, as well as the first open source models. The dataset, models, and code will be released at https://github.com/jbarrow/commonforms

We present a deep-learning framework, CrysXPP, to allow rapid prediction of electronic, magnetic and elastic properties of a wide range of materials with reasonable precision. Although our work is consistent with several recent attempts to build deep learning-based property predictors, it overcomes some of their limitations. CrysXPP lowers the need for a large volume of tagged data to train a deep learning model by intelligently designing an autoencoder CrysAE and passing the structural information to the property prediction process. The autoencoder in turn is trained on a huge volume of untagged crystal graphs, the designed loss function helps in capturing all their important structural and chemical information. Moreover, CrysXPP uses only a small amount of tagged data for property prediction, and also trains a feature selector that provides interpretability to the results obtained. We demonstrate that CrysXPP convincingly performs better than all the competing and recent baseline algorithms across seven diverse set of properties. Most notably, when given a small amount of experimental data, CrysXPP is consistently able to outperform conventional DFT. We release the large pretrained model CrysAE so that it could be fine-tuned using small amount of tagged data by the research community on various applications with restricted data source.

Time series forecasting in real-world settings often depends not only on historical observations, but also on external context that must be actively discovered from noisy, heterogeneous information sources. Yet existing context-aided forecasting benchmarks typically assume that the supporting context is already provided, leaving open whether agents can identify it on their own. Therefore, we introduce Dr-CiK, a benchmark for evaluating whether agents can retrieve forecasting-relevant supporting context from a document corpus, filter out distractors, distill the retrieved context into forecast-useful evidence, and generate forecasts supported by that evidence. Through context ablations and evaluations of state-of-the-art deep research and forecasting methods paired together, we show that high-quality context substantially improves forecasting performance in Dr-CiK. However, most existing DR agents recover only a small fraction of the ground-truth supporting evidence (usually <5%), are frequently misled by distractors (>80% distractor citations), and can cause forecasters to perform worse with retrieved context than without context. Our results motivate research on foresight-driven agents that search for the right context to predict the future.

The detection of ligand binding sites for proteins is a fundamental step in Structure-Based Drug Design. Despite notable advances in recent years, existing methods, datasets, and evaluation metrics are confronted with several key challenges: (1) current datasets and methods are centered on individual protein-ligand complexes and neglect that diverse binding sites may exist across multiple complexes of the same protein, introducing significant statistical bias; (2) ligand binding site detection is typically modeled as a discontinuous workflow, employing binary segmentation and subsequent clustering algorithms; (3) traditional evaluation metrics do not adequately reflect the actual performance of different binding site prediction methods. To address these issues, we first introduce UniSite-DS, the first UniProt (Unique Protein)-centric ligand binding site dataset, which contains 4.81 times more multi-site data and 2.08 times more overall data compared to the previously most widely used datasets. We then propose UniSite, the first end-to-end ligand binding site detection framework supervised by set prediction loss with bijective matching. In addition, we introduce Average Precision based on Intersection over Union (IoU) as a more accurate evaluation metric for ligand binding site prediction. Extensive experiments on UniSite-DS and several representative benchmark datasets demonstrate that IoU-based Average Precision provides a more accurate reflection of prediction quality, and that UniSite outperforms current state-of-the-art methods in ligand binding site detection. The dataset and codes will be made publicly available at https://github.com/quanlin-wu/unisite.

Document Layout Analysis is crucial for real-world document understanding systems, but it encounters a challenging trade-off between speed and accuracy: multimodal methods leveraging both text and visual features achieve higher accuracy but suffer from significant latency, whereas unimodal methods relying solely on visual features offer faster processing speeds at the expense of accuracy. To address this dilemma, we introduce DocLayout-YOLO, a novel approach that enhances accuracy while maintaining speed advantages through document-specific optimizations in both pre-training and model design. For robust document pre-training, we introduce the Mesh-candidate BestFit algorithm, which frames document synthesis as a two-dimensional bin packing problem, generating the large-scale, diverse DocSynth-300K dataset. Pre-training on the resulting DocSynth-300K dataset significantly improves fine-tuning performance across various document types. In terms of model optimization, we propose a Global-to-Local Controllable Receptive Module that is capable of better handling multi-scale variations of document elements. Furthermore, to validate performance across different document types, we introduce a complex and challenging benchmark named DocStructBench. Extensive experiments on downstream datasets demonstrate that DocLayout-YOLO excels in both speed and accuracy. Code, data, and models are available at https://github.com/opendatalab/DocLayout-YOLO.

Predicting the future is of great interest across many aspects of human activity. Businesses are interested in future trends, traders are interested in future stock prices, and companies are highly interested in future technological breakthroughs. While there are many automated systems for predicting future numerical data, such as weather, stock prices, and demand for products, there is relatively little work in automatically predicting textual data. Humans are interested in textual data predictions because it is a natural format for our consumption, and experts routinely make predictions in a textual format (Christensen et al., 2004; Tetlock & Gardner, 2015; Frick, 2015). However, there has been relatively little formalization of this general problem in the machine learning or natural language processing communities. To address this gap, we introduce the task of future language modeling: probabilistic modeling of texts in the future based on a temporal history of texts. To our knowledge, our work is the first work to formalize the task of predicting the future in this way. We show that it is indeed possible to build future language models that improve upon strong non-temporal language model baselines, opening the door to working on this important, and widely applicable problem.

Often we wish to predict a large number of variables that depend on each other as well as on other observed variables. Structured prediction methods are essentially a combination of classification and graphical modeling, combining the ability of graphical models to compactly model multivariate data with the ability of classification methods to perform prediction using large sets of input features. This tutorial describes conditional random fields, a popular probabilistic method for structured prediction. CRFs have seen wide application in natural language processing, computer vision, and bioinformatics. We describe methods for inference and parameter estimation for CRFs, including practical issues for implementing large scale CRFs. We do not assume previous knowledge of graphical modeling, so this tutorial is intended to be useful to practitioners in a wide variety of fields.

Under standard graphical assumptions, the Markov boundary of a target variable is the smallest set of features that renders every other feature redundant. Once the boundary is observed, the target is conditionally independent of the rest of the table. This is a tempting object for tabular prediction, since it names exactly the columns a model should need. Yet modern regressors are still trained on the full feature set. We ask whether the Markov boundary is genuinely useful for prediction on SCM3K, a 3,450-task synthetic SCM benchmark with feature counts from 40 to 1000 and six SCM families, evaluated with six regressors. The answer is more nuanced than the theory suggests. Restricting a regressor to the oracle boundary often improves prediction substantially, and the improvement grows as the feature space becomes larger and sparser. But the natural pipeline of recovering the boundary with causal discovery and training on the recovered mask does not deliver. Existing estimators exhaust the compute budget before reaching the regime where the boundary helps most, and even where they run they rarely beat the full feature set. We trace this to three causes. Discovery optimizes structural recovery rather than prediction. False negatives and false positives carry sharply asymmetric predictive cost. The exact boundary is only one of many feature sets that beat all features. We then develop what these facts imply for prediction-aligned feature selection and for tabular models that learn to use causal structure.

Future prediction is a complex task for LLM agents, requiring a high level of analytical thinking, information gathering, contextual understanding, and decision-making under uncertainty. Agents must not only gather and interpret vast amounts of dynamic information but also integrate diverse data sources, weigh uncertainties, and adapt predictions based on emerging trends, just as human experts do in fields like politics, economics, and finance. Despite its importance, no large-scale benchmark exists for evaluating agents on future prediction, largely due to challenges in handling real-time updates and retrieving timely, accurate answers. To address this, we introduce FutureX, a dynamic and live evaluation benchmark specifically designed for LLM agents performing future prediction tasks. FutureX is the largest and most diverse live benchmark for future prediction, supporting real-time daily updates and eliminating data contamination through an automated pipeline for question gathering and answer collection. We evaluate 25 LLM/agent models, including those with reasoning, search capabilities, and integration of external tools such as the open-source Deep Research Agent and closed-source Deep Research models. This comprehensive evaluation assesses agents' adaptive reasoning and performance in dynamic environments. Additionally, we provide in-depth analyses of agents' failure modes and performance pitfalls in future-oriented tasks, including the vulnerability to fake web pages and the temporal validity. Our goal is to establish a dynamic, contamination-free evaluation standard that drives the development of LLM agents capable of performing at the level of professional human analysts in complex reasoning and predictive thinking.

Understanding why a model makes a certain prediction can be as crucial as the prediction's accuracy in many applications. However, the highest accuracy for large modern datasets is often achieved by complex models that even experts struggle to interpret, such as ensemble or deep learning models, creating a tension between accuracy and interpretability. In response, various methods have recently been proposed to help users interpret the predictions of complex models, but it is often unclear how these methods are related and when one method is preferable over another. To address this problem, we present a unified framework for interpreting predictions, SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations). SHAP assigns each feature an importance value for a particular prediction. Its novel components include: (1) the identification of a new class of additive feature importance measures, and (2) theoretical results showing there is a unique solution in this class with a set of desirable properties. The new class unifies six existing methods, notable because several recent methods in the class lack the proposed desirable properties. Based on insights from this unification, we present new methods that show improved computational performance and/or better consistency with human intuition than previous approaches.

We present FOLD-SE, an efficient, explainable machine learning algorithm for classification tasks given tabular data containing numerical and categorical values. FOLD-SE generates a set of default rules-essentially a stratified normal logic program-as an (explainable) trained model. Explainability provided by FOLD-SE is scalable, meaning that regardless of the size of the dataset, the number of learned rules and learned literals stay quite small while good accuracy in classification is maintained. A model with smaller number of rules and literals is easier to understand for human beings. FOLD-SE is competitive with state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms such as XGBoost and Multi-Layer Perceptrons (MLP) wrt accuracy of prediction. However, unlike XGBoost and MLP, the FOLD-SE algorithm is explainable. The FOLD-SE algorithm builds upon our earlier work on developing the explainable FOLD-R++ machine learning algorithm for binary classification and inherits all of its positive features. Thus, pre-processing of the dataset, using techniques such as one-hot encoding, is not needed. Like FOLD-R++, FOLD-SE uses prefix sum to speed up computations resulting in FOLD-SE being an order of magnitude faster than XGBoost and MLP in execution speed. The FOLD-SE algorithm outperforms FOLD-R++ as well as other rule-learning algorithms such as RIPPER in efficiency, performance and scalability, especially for large datasets. A major reason for scalable explainability of FOLD-SE is the use of a literal selection heuristics based on Gini Impurity, as opposed to Information Gain used in FOLD-R++. A multi-category classification version of FOLD-SE is also presented.

Building predictive models for companies often relies on inference using historical data of companies in the same industry sector. However, companies are similar across a variety of dimensions that should be leveraged in relevant prediction problems. This is particularly true for large, complex organizations which may not be well defined by a single industry and have no clear peers. To enable prediction using company information across a variety of dimensions, we create an embedding of company stocks, Stock2Vec, which can be easily added to any prediction model that applies to companies with associated stock prices. We describe the process of creating this rich vector representation from stock price fluctuations, and characterize what the dimensions represent. We then conduct comprehensive experiments to evaluate this embedding in applied machine learning problems in various business contexts. Our experiment results demonstrate that the four features in the Stock2Vec embedding can readily augment existing cross-company models and enhance cross-company predictions.

We consider the problem of antibody sequence design given 3D structural information. Building on previous work, we propose a fine-tuned inverse folding model that is specifically optimised for antibody structures and outperforms generic protein models on sequence recovery and structure robustness when applied on antibodies, with notable improvement on the hypervariable CDR-H3 loop. We study the canonical conformations of complementarity-determining regions and find improved encoding of these loops into known clusters. Finally, we consider the applications of our model to drug discovery and binder design and evaluate the quality of proposed sequences using physics-based methods.

Business Document Information Extraction (BDIE) is the problem of transforming a blob of unstructured information (raw text, scanned documents, etc.) into a structured format that downstream systems can parse and use. It has two main tasks: Key-Information Extraction (KIE) and Line Items Recognition (LIR). In this paper, we argue that BDIE is best modeled as a Tool Use problem, where the tools are these downstream systems. We then present Retrieval Augmented Structured Generation (RASG), a novel general framework for BDIE that achieves state of the art (SOTA) results on both KIE and LIR tasks on BDIE benchmarks. The contributions of this paper are threefold: (1) We show, with ablation benchmarks, that Large Language Models (LLMs) with RASG are already competitive with or surpasses current SOTA Large Multimodal Models (LMMs) without RASG on BDIE benchmarks. (2) We propose a new metric class for Line Items Recognition, General Line Items Recognition Metric (GLIRM), that is more aligned with practical BDIE use cases compared to existing metrics, such as ANLS*, DocILE, and GriTS. (3) We provide a heuristic algorithm for backcalculating bounding boxes of predicted line items and tables without the need for vision encoders. Finally, we claim that, while LMMs might sometimes offer marginal performance benefits, LLMs + RASG is oftentimes superior given real-world applications and constraints of BDIE.

Generative modeling of high-frequency limit order book (LOB) dynamics is a critical yet unsolved challenge in quantitative finance, essential for robust market simulation and strategy backtesting. Existing approaches are often constrained by simplifying stochastic assumptions or, in the case of modern deep learning models like Transformers, rely on tokenization schemes that affect the high-precision, numerical nature of financial data through discretization and binning. To address these limitations, we introduce ByteGen, a novel generative model that operates directly on the raw byte streams of LOB events. Our approach treats the problem as an autoregressive next-byte prediction task, for which we design a compact and efficient 32-byte packed binary format to represent market messages without information loss. The core novelty of our work is the complete elimination of feature engineering and tokenization, enabling the model to learn market dynamics from its most fundamental representation. We achieve this by adapting the H-Net architecture, a hybrid Mamba-Transformer model that uses a dynamic chunking mechanism to discover the inherent structure of market messages without predefined rules. Our primary contributions are: 1) the first end-to-end, byte-level framework for LOB modeling; 2) an efficient packed data representation; and 3) a comprehensive evaluation on high-frequency data. Trained on over 34 million events from CME Bitcoin futures, ByteGen successfully reproduces key stylized facts of financial markets, generating realistic price distributions, heavy-tailed returns, and bursty event timing. Our findings demonstrate that learning directly from byte space is a promising and highly flexible paradigm for modeling complex financial systems, achieving competitive performance on standard market quality metrics without the biases of tokenization.

Recently, there has been great interest in learning how to best represent proteins, specifically with fixed-length embeddings. Deep learning has become a popular tool for protein representation learning as a model's hidden layers produce potentially useful vector embeddings. TAPE introduced a number of benchmark tasks and showed that semi-supervised learning, via pretraining language models on a large protein corpus, improved performance on downstream tasks. Two of the tasks (fluorescence prediction and stability prediction) involve learning fitness landscapes. In this paper, we show that CNN models trained solely using supervised learning both compete with and sometimes outperform the best models from TAPE that leverage expensive pretraining on large protein datasets. These CNN models are sufficiently simple and small that they can be trained using a Google Colab notebook. We also find for the fluorescence task that linear regression outperforms our models and the TAPE models. The benchmarking tasks proposed by TAPE are excellent measures of a model's ability to predict protein function and should be used going forward. However, we believe it is important to add baselines from simple models to put the performance of the semi-supervised models that have been reported so far into perspective.

The GPT-4 technical report suggests that downstream performance can be predicted from pre-training signals, but offers little methodological detail on how to quantify this. This work address this gap by modeling knowledge retention, the capacity of a pre-trained language model to memorize factual information from its corpus, and introduce a principled method to estimate it prior to training. We propose Size-dependent Mutual Information (SMI), an information-theoretic predictor that integrates knowledge frequency, knowledge specificity, and model size to forecast closed-book question answering (QA) accuracy. SMI is validated through large-scale document retrieval over the disclosed pre-training corpora of 21 public and 3 custom models, combined with a robust multi-template QA evaluation. Experiments show that SMI significantly outperforms repetition-based baselines and achieves R^2 > 0.7 in predicting QA accuracy for models above 1B parameters, without additional training. The analysis further reveals diminishing returns from scaling data and model size and provides evidence for an intrinsic upper bound on knowledge retention achievable by pre-training alone, motivating retrieval and other augmentation strategies.

We introduce IntFold, a controllable foundation model for both general and specialized biomolecular structure prediction. IntFold demonstrates predictive accuracy comparable to the state-of-the-art AlphaFold3, while utilizing a superior customized attention kernel. Beyond standard structure prediction, IntFold can be adapted to predict allosteric states, constrained structures, and binding affinity through the use of individual adapters. Furthermore, we introduce a novel confidence head to estimate docking quality, offering a more nuanced assessment for challenging targets such as antibody-antigen complexes. Finally, we share insights gained during the training process of this computationally intensive model.

Molecular property prediction is crucial for drug discovery and materials science, yet existing approaches suffer from limited interpretability, poor cross-task generalization, and lack of chemical reasoning capabilities. Traditional machine learning models struggle with task transferability, while specialized molecular language models provide little insight into their decision-making processes. To address these limitations, we propose MPPReasoner, a multimodal large language model that incorporates chemical reasoning for molecular property prediction. Our approach, built upon Qwen2.5-VL-7B-Instruct, integrates molecular images with SMILES strings to enable comprehensive molecular understanding. We develop a two-stage training strategy: supervised fine-tuning (SFT) using 16,000 high-quality reasoning trajectories generated through expert knowledge and multiple teacher models, followed by Reinforcement Learning from Principle-Guided Rewards (RLPGR). RLPGR employs verifiable, rule-based rewards that systematically evaluate chemical principle application, molecular structure analysis, and logical consistency through computational verification. Extensive experiments across 8 datasets demonstrate significant performance improvements, with MPPReasoner outperforming the best baselines by 7.91\% and 4.53\% on in-distribution and out-of-distribution tasks respectively. MPPReasoner exhibits exceptional cross-task generalization and generates chemically sound reasoning paths that provide valuable insights into molecular property analysis, substantially enhancing both interpretability and practical utility for chemists. Code is available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/MPPReasoner-12687.

Training data influence estimation methods quantify the contribution of training documents to a model's output, making them a promising source of information for example-based explanations. As humans cannot interpret thousands of documents, only a small subset of the training data can be presented as an explanation. Although the choice of which documents to include directly affects explanation quality, previous evaluations of such systems have largely ignored any selection strategies. To address this, we propose a novel selection relevance score, a retraining-free metric that quantifies how useful a set of examples is for explaining a model's output. We validate this score through fine-tuning experiments, confirming that it can predict whether a set of examples supports or undermines the model's predictions. Using this metric, we further show that common selection strategies often underperform random selection. Motivated by this finding, we propose a strategy that balances influence and representativeness, enabling better use of selection budgets than naively selecting the highest-ranking examples.

Predicting trends in stock market prices has been an area of interest for researchers for many years due to its complex and dynamic nature. Intrinsic volatility in stock market across the globe makes the task of prediction challenging. Forecasting and diffusion modeling, although effective can't be the panacea to the diverse range of problems encountered in prediction, short-term or otherwise. Market risk, strongly correlated with forecasting errors, needs to be minimized to ensure minimal risk in investment. The authors propose to minimize forecasting error by treating the forecasting problem as a classification problem, a popular suite of algorithms in Machine learning. In this paper, we propose a novel way to minimize the risk of investment in stock market by predicting the returns of a stock using a class of powerful machine learning algorithms known as ensemble learning. Some of the technical indicators such as Relative Strength Index (RSI), stochastic oscillator etc are used as inputs to train our model. The learning model used is an ensemble of multiple decision trees. The algorithm is shown to outperform existing algo- rithms found in the literature. Out of Bag (OOB) error estimates have been found to be encouraging. Key Words: Random Forest Classifier, stock price forecasting, Exponential smoothing, feature extraction, OOB error and convergence.

Forecasting is an important task in many domains, such as technology and economics. However existing forecasting benchmarks largely lack comprehensive confidence assessment, focus on limited question types, and often consist of artificial questions that do not align with real-world human forecasting needs. To address these gaps, we introduce FOReCAst (Future Outcome Reasoning and Confidence Assessment), a benchmark that evaluates models' ability to make predictions and their confidence in them. FOReCAst spans diverse forecasting scenarios involving Boolean questions, timeframe prediction, and quantity estimation, enabling a comprehensive evaluation of both prediction accuracy and confidence calibration for real-world applications.

Prediction markets are used in real life to predict outcomes of interest such as presidential elections. This paper presents a mathematical theory of artificial prediction markets for supervised learning of conditional probability estimators. The artificial prediction market is a novel method for fusing the prediction information of features or trained classifiers, where the fusion result is the contract price on the possible outcomes. The market can be trained online by updating the participants' budgets using training examples. Inspired by the real prediction markets, the equations that govern the market are derived from simple and reasonable assumptions. Efficient numerical algorithms are presented for solving these equations. The obtained artificial prediction market is shown to be a maximum likelihood estimator. It generalizes linear aggregation, existent in boosting and random forest, as well as logistic regression and some kernel methods. Furthermore, the market mechanism allows the aggregation of specialized classifiers that participate only on specific instances. Experimental comparisons show that the artificial prediction markets often outperform random forest and implicit online learning on synthetic data and real UCI datasets. Moreover, an extensive evaluation for pelvic and abdominal lymph node detection in CT data shows that the prediction market improves adaboost's detection rate from 79.6% to 81.2% at 3 false positives/volume.

In the field of antibody engineering, an essential task is to design a novel antibody whose paratopes bind to a specific antigen with correct epitopes. Understanding antibody structure and its paratope can facilitate a mechanistic understanding of its function. Therefore, antibody structure prediction from its sequence alone has always been a highly valuable problem for de novo antibody design. AlphaFold2, a breakthrough in the field of structural biology, provides a solution to predict protein structure based on protein sequences and computationally expensive coevolutionary multiple sequence alignments (MSAs). However, the computational efficiency and undesirable prediction accuracy of antibodies, especially on the complementarity-determining regions (CDRs) of antibodies limit their applications in the industrially high-throughput drug design. To learn an informative representation of antibodies, we employed a deep antibody language model (ALM) on curated sequences from the observed antibody space database via a transformer model. We also developed a novel model named xTrimoABFold to predict antibody structure from antibody sequence based on the pretrained ALM as well as efficient evoformers and structural modules. The model was trained end-to-end on the antibody structures in PDB by minimizing the ensemble loss of domain-specific focal loss on CDR and the frame-aligned point loss. xTrimoABFold outperforms AlphaFold2 and other protein language model based SOTAs, e.g., OmegaFold, HelixFold-Single, and IgFold with a large significant margin (30+\% improvement on RMSD) while performing 151 times faster than AlphaFold2. To the best of our knowledge, xTrimoABFold achieved state-of-the-art antibody structure prediction. Its improvement in both accuracy and efficiency makes it a valuable tool for de novo antibody design and could make further improvements in immuno-theory.

High-throughput data generation methods and machine learning (ML) algorithms have given rise to a new era of computational materials science by learning relationships among composition, structure, and properties and by exploiting such relations for design. However, to build these connections, materials data must be translated into a numerical form, called a representation, that can be processed by a machine learning model. Datasets in materials science vary in format (ranging from images to spectra), size, and fidelity. Predictive models vary in scope and property of interests. Here, we review context-dependent strategies for constructing representations that enable the use of materials as inputs or outputs of machine learning models. Furthermore, we discuss how modern ML techniques can learn representations from data and transfer chemical and physical information between tasks. Finally, we outline high-impact questions that have not been fully resolved and thus, require further investigation.

Recently, pre-trained foundation models have enabled significant advancements in multiple fields. In molecular machine learning, however, where datasets are often hand-curated, and hence typically small, the lack of datasets with labeled features, and codebases to manage those datasets, has hindered the development of foundation models. In this work, we present seven novel datasets categorized by size into three distinct categories: ToyMix, LargeMix and UltraLarge. These datasets push the boundaries in both the scale and the diversity of supervised labels for molecular learning. They cover nearly 100 million molecules and over 3000 sparsely defined tasks, totaling more than 13 billion individual labels of both quantum and biological nature. In comparison, our datasets contain 300 times more data points than the widely used OGB-LSC PCQM4Mv2 dataset, and 13 times more than the quantum-only QM1B dataset. In addition, to support the development of foundational models based on our proposed datasets, we present the Graphium graph machine learning library which simplifies the process of building and training molecular machine learning models for multi-task and multi-level molecular datasets. Finally, we present a range of baseline results as a starting point of multi-task and multi-level training on these datasets. Empirically, we observe that performance on low-resource biological datasets show improvement by also training on large amounts of quantum data. This indicates that there may be potential in multi-task and multi-level training of a foundation model and fine-tuning it to resource-constrained downstream tasks.

Managing the prediction of metrics in high-frequency financial markets is a challenging task. An efficient way is by monitoring the dynamics of a limit order book to identify the information edge. This paper describes the first publicly available benchmark dataset of high-frequency limit order markets for mid-price prediction. We extracted normalized data representations of time series data for five stocks from the NASDAQ Nordic stock market for a time period of ten consecutive days, leading to a dataset of ~4,000,000 time series samples in total. A day-based anchored cross-validation experimental protocol is also provided that can be used as a benchmark for comparing the performance of state-of-the-art methodologies. Performance of baseline approaches are also provided to facilitate experimental comparisons. We expect that such a large-scale dataset can serve as a testbed for devising novel solutions of expert systems for high-frequency limit order book data analysis.

Stock price prediction is a rich research topic that has attracted interest from various areas of science. The recent success of machine learning in speech and image recognition has prompted researchers to apply these methods to asset price prediction. The majority of literature has been devoted to predicting either the actual asset price or the direction of price movement. In this paper, we study a hitherto little explored question of predicting significant changes in stock price based on previous changes using machine learning algorithms. We are particularly interested in the performance of neural network classifiers in the given context. To this end, we construct and test three neural network models including multi-layer perceptron, convolutional net, and long short term memory net. As benchmark models we use random forest and relative strength index methods. The models are tested using 10-year daily stock price data of four major US public companies. Test results show that predicting significant changes in stock price can be accomplished with a high degree of accuracy. In particular, we obtain substantially better results than similar studies that forecast the direction of price change.

Next-token prediction (NTP) has driven the success of large language models (LLMs), but it struggles with long-horizon reasoning, planning, and creative writing, with these limitations largely attributed to teacher-forced training. Multi-token prediction (MTP) partially mitigates these issues by predicting several future tokens at once, but it mostly captures short-range dependencies and offers limited improvement. We propose future summary prediction (FSP), which trains an auxiliary head to predict a compact representation of the long-term future, preserving information relevant for long-form generations. We explore two variants of FSP: handcrafted summaries, for example, a bag of words summary of the future sequence, and learned summaries, which use embeddings produced by a reverse language model trained from right-to-left order. Large-scale pretraining experiments (3B and 8B-parameter models) demonstrate that FSP provides improvements over both NTP and MTP across math, reasoning, and coding benchmarks.

We extend our previous work on Inductive Conformal Prediction (ICP) for multi-label text classification and present a novel approach for addressing the computational inefficiency of the Label Powerset (LP) ICP, arrising when dealing with a high number of unique labels. We present experimental results using the original and the proposed efficient LP-ICP on two English and one Czech language data-sets. Specifically, we apply the LP-ICP on three deep Artificial Neural Network (ANN) classifiers of two types: one based on contextualised (bert) and two on non-contextualised (word2vec) word-embeddings. In the LP-ICP setting we assign nonconformity scores to label-sets from which the corresponding p-values and prediction-sets are determined. Our approach deals with the increased computational burden of LP by eliminating from consideration a significant number of label-sets that will surely have p-values below the specified significance level. This reduces dramatically the computational complexity of the approach while fully respecting the standard CP guarantees. Our experimental results show that the contextualised-based classifier surpasses the non-contextualised-based ones and obtains state-of-the-art performance for all data-sets examined. The good performance of the underlying classifiers is carried on to their ICP counterparts without any significant accuracy loss, but with the added benefits of ICP, i.e. the confidence information encapsulated in the prediction sets. We experimentally demonstrate that the resulting prediction sets can be tight enough to be practically useful even though the set of all possible label-sets contains more than 1e+16 combinations. Additionally, the empirical error rates of the obtained prediction-sets confirm that our outputs are well-calibrated.

Interpretability is essential for machine learning models to be trusted and deployed in critical domains. However, existing methods for interpreting text models are often complex, lack mathematical foundations, and their performance is not guaranteed. In this paper, we propose FRED (Faithful and Robust Explainer for textual Documents), a novel method for interpreting predictions over text. FRED offers three key insights to explain a model prediction: (1) it identifies the minimal set of words in a document whose removal has the strongest influence on the prediction, (2) it assigns an importance score to each token, reflecting its influence on the model's output, and (3) it provides counterfactual explanations by generating examples similar to the original document, but leading to a different prediction. We establish the reliability of FRED through formal definitions and theoretical analyses on interpretable classifiers. Additionally, our empirical evaluation against state-of-the-art methods demonstrates the effectiveness of FRED in providing insights into text models.

There is a compelling necessity from enterprises for fine tuning LLMs (Large Language Models) o get them trained on proprietary domain knowledge. The challenge is to imbibe the LLMs with domain specific knowledge using the most optimial resource and cost and in the best possible time. Many enterprises rely on RAG (Retrieval Augmented Generation) which does not need LLMs to be ine-tuned but they are limited by the quality of vector databases and their retrieval capabilities rather than the intrinsic capabilities of the LLMs themselves. In our current work we focus on fine tuning LLaMA, an open source LLM using proprietary documents and code from an enterprise repository and use the fine tuned models to evaluate the quality of responses. As part of this work, we aim to guide beginners on how to start with fine tuning an LLM for documentation and code by making educated guesses on size of GPU required and options that are available for formatting the data. We also propose pre processing recipes for both documentation and code to prepare dataset in different formats. The proposed methods of data preparation for document datasets are forming paragraph chunks, forming question and answer pairs and forming keyword and paragraph chunk pairs. For code dataset we propose forming summary and function pairs. Further, we qualitatively evaluate the results of the models for domain specific queries. Finally, we also propose practical guidelines and recommendations for fine tuning LLMs.

Self-supervised neural language models have recently achieved unprecedented success, from natural language processing to learning the languages of biological sequences and organic molecules. These models have demonstrated superior performance in the generation, structure classification, and functional predictions for proteins and molecules with learned representations. However, most of the masking-based pre-trained language models are not designed for generative design, and their black-box nature makes it difficult to interpret their design logic. Here we propose BLMM Crystal Transformer, a neural network based probabilistic generative model for generative and tinkering design of inorganic materials. Our model is built on the blank filling language model for text generation and has demonstrated unique advantages in learning the "materials grammars" together with high-quality generation, interpretability, and data efficiency. It can generate chemically valid materials compositions with as high as 89.7\% charge neutrality and 84.8\% balanced electronegativity, which are more than 4 and 8 times higher compared to a pseudo random sampling baseline. The probabilistic generation process of BLMM allows it to recommend tinkering operations based on learned materials chemistry and makes it useful for materials doping. Combined with the TCSP crysal structure prediction algorithm, We have applied our model to discover a set of new materials as validated using DFT calculations. Our work thus brings the unsupervised transformer language models based generative artificial intelligence to inorganic materials. A user-friendly web app has been developed for computational materials doping and can be accessed freely at www.materialsatlas.org/blmtinker.

Pocket representations play a vital role in various biomedical applications, such as druggability estimation, ligand affinity prediction, and de novo drug design. While existing geometric features and pretrained representations have demonstrated promising results, they usually treat pockets independent of ligands, neglecting the fundamental interactions between them. However, the limited pocket-ligand complex structures available in the PDB database (less than 100 thousand non-redundant pairs) hampers large-scale pretraining endeavors for interaction modeling. To address this constraint, we propose a novel pocket pretraining approach that leverages knowledge from high-resolution atomic protein structures, assisted by highly effective pretrained small molecule representations. By segmenting protein structures into drug-like fragments and their corresponding pockets, we obtain a reasonable simulation of ligand-receptor interactions, resulting in the generation of over 5 million complexes. Subsequently, the pocket encoder is trained in a contrastive manner to align with the representation of pseudo-ligand furnished by some pretrained small molecule encoders. Our method, named ProFSA, achieves state-of-the-art performance across various tasks, including pocket druggability prediction, pocket matching, and ligand binding affinity prediction. Notably, ProFSA surpasses other pretraining methods by a substantial margin. Moreover, our work opens up a new avenue for mitigating the scarcity of protein-ligand complex data through the utilization of high-quality and diverse protein structure databases.

Tabular data is a crucial form of information expression, which can organize data in a standard structure for easy information retrieval and comparison. However, in financial industry and many other fields tables are often disclosed in unstructured digital files, e.g. Portable Document Format (PDF) and images, which are difficult to be extracted directly. In this paper, to facilitate deep learning based table extraction from unstructured digital files, we publish a standard Chinese dataset named FinTab, which contains more than 1,600 financial tables of diverse kinds and their corresponding structure representation in JSON. In addition, we propose a novel graph-based convolutional neural network model named GFTE as a baseline for future comparison. GFTE integrates image feature, position feature and textual feature together for precise edge prediction and reaches overall good results.

This study addresses the challenges of multi-label text classification. The difficulties arise from imbalanced data sets, varied text lengths, and numerous subjective feature labels. Existing solutions include traditional machine learning and deep neural networks for predictions. However, both approaches have their limitations. Traditional machine learning often overlooks the associations between words, while deep neural networks, despite their better classification performance, come with increased training complexity and time. This paper proposes a method utilizing the bag-of-words model approach based on the GloVe model and the CNN-BiLSTM network. The principle is to use the word vector matrix trained by the GloVe model as the input for the text embedding layer. Given that the GloVe model requires no further training, the neural network model can be trained more efficiently. The method achieves an accuracy rate of 87.26% on the test set and an F1 score of 0.8737, showcasing promising results.

We introduce JFinTEB, the first comprehensive benchmark specifically designed for evaluating Japanese financial text embeddings. Existing embedding benchmarks provide limited coverage of language-specific and domain-specific aspects found in Japanese financial texts. Our benchmark encompasses diverse task categories including retrieval and classification tasks that reflect realistic and well-defined financial text processing scenarios. The retrieval tasks leverage instruction-following datasets and financial text generation queries, while classification tasks cover sentiment analysis, document categorization, and domain-specific classification challenges derived from economic survey data. We conduct extensive evaluations across a wide range of embedding models, including Japanese-specific models of various sizes, multilingual models, and commercial embedding services. We publicly release JFinTEB datasets and evaluation framework at https://github.com/retarfi/JFinTEB to facilitate future research and provide a standardized evaluation protocol for the Japanese financial text mining community. This work addresses a critical gap in Japanese financial text processing resources and establishes a foundation for advancing domain-specific embedding research.

We develop a large-scale deep learning model to predict price movements from limit order book (LOB) data of cash equities. The architecture utilises convolutional filters to capture the spatial structure of the limit order books as well as LSTM modules to capture longer time dependencies. The proposed network outperforms all existing state-of-the-art algorithms on the benchmark LOB dataset [1]. In a more realistic setting, we test our model by using one year market quotes from the London Stock Exchange and the model delivers a remarkably stable out-of-sample prediction accuracy for a variety of instruments. Importantly, our model translates well to instruments which were not part of the training set, indicating the model's ability to extract universal features. In order to better understand these features and to go beyond a "black box" model, we perform a sensitivity analysis to understand the rationale behind the model predictions and reveal the components of LOBs that are most relevant. The ability to extract robust features which translate well to other instruments is an important property of our model which has many other applications.

Designing robust frameworks for precise prediction of future prices of stocks has always been considered a very challenging research problem. The advocates of the classical efficient market hypothesis affirm that it is impossible to accurately predict the future prices in an efficiently operating market due to the stochastic nature of the stock price variables. However, numerous propositions exist in the literature with varying degrees of sophistication and complexity that illustrate how algorithms and models can be designed for making efficient, accurate, and robust predictions of stock prices. We present a gamut of ten deep learning models of regression for precise and robust prediction of the future prices of the stock of a critical company in the auto sector of India. Using a very granular stock price collected at 5 minutes intervals, we train the models based on the records from 31st Dec, 2012 to 27th Dec, 2013. The testing of the models is done using records from 30th Dec, 2013 to 9th Jan 2015. We explain the design principles of the models and analyze the results of their performance based on accuracy in forecasting and speed of execution.

Forecasting future events is important for policy and decision making. In this work, we study whether language models (LMs) can forecast at the level of competitive human forecasters. Towards this goal, we develop a retrieval-augmented LM system designed to automatically search for relevant information, generate forecasts, and aggregate predictions. To facilitate our study, we collect a large dataset of questions from competitive forecasting platforms. Under a test set published after the knowledge cut-offs of our LMs, we evaluate the end-to-end performance of our system against the aggregates of human forecasts. On average, the system nears the crowd aggregate of competitive forecasters, and in some settings surpasses it. Our work suggests that using LMs to forecast the future could provide accurate predictions at scale and help to inform institutional decision making.

Predicting peptide--major histocompatibility complex I (pMHC-I) binding affinity remains challenging due to extreme allelic diversity (sim30,000 HLA alleles), severe data scarcity for most alleles, and noisy experimental measurements. Current methods particularly struggle with underrepresented alleles and quantitative binding prediction. We test whether domain-specific continued pre-training of protein language models is beneficial for their application to pMHC-I binding affinity prediction. Starting from ESM Cambrian (300M parameters), we perform masked-language modeling (MLM)-based continued pre-training on HLA-associated peptides (epitopes), testing two input formats: epitope sequences alone versus epitopes concatenated with HLA heavy chain sequences. We then fine-tune for functional IC_{50} binding affinity prediction using only high-quality quantitative data, avoiding mass spectrometry biases that are inherited by existing methods.

Forecasting is a task that is difficult to evaluate: the ground truth can only be known in the future. Recent work showing LLM forecasters rapidly approaching human-level performance begs the question: how can we benchmark and evaluate these forecasters instantaneously? Following the consistency check framework, we measure the performance of forecasters in terms of the consistency of their predictions on different logically-related questions. We propose a new, general consistency metric based on arbitrage: for example, if a forecasting AI illogically predicts that both the Democratic and Republican parties have 60% probability of winning the 2024 US presidential election, an arbitrageur can trade against the forecaster's predictions and make a profit. We build an automated evaluation system that generates a set of base questions, instantiates consistency checks from these questions, elicits the predictions of the forecaster, and measures the consistency of the predictions. We then build a standard, proper-scoring-rule forecasting benchmark, and show that our (instantaneous) consistency metrics correlate with LLM forecasters' ground truth Brier scores (which are only known in the future). We also release a consistency benchmark that resolves in 2028, providing a long-term evaluation tool for forecasting.

Longitudinal clinical notes contain rich evidence of how patients evolve over time, but converting this signal into training supervision for clinical prediction remains challenging. We extend Foresight Learning to clinical prediction by converting time-ordered MIMIC-III notes into examples consisting of past patient context, a natural-language question about a possible future event, and a label resolved from later documentation. This process yields 6,900 prediction examples from 702 admissions across medications, procedures, organ support, microbiology, and mortality. A small LoRA adapter trained on these examples improves over the prompted base model, reducing expected calibration error from 0.1269 to 0.0398 and Brier score from 0.199 to 0.145, while slightly outperforming GPT-5 point estimates on held-out questions. The approach enables reusable clinical prediction supervision from longitudinal notes without hand-engineered structured features or endpoint-specific classifiers.

Due to the rise of privacy concerns, in many practical applications the training data is aggregated before being shared with the learner, in order to protect privacy of users' sensitive responses. In an aggregate learning framework, the dataset is grouped into bags of samples, where each bag is available only with an aggregate response, providing a summary of individuals' responses in that bag. In this paper, we study two natural loss functions for learning from aggregate responses: bag-level loss and the instance-level loss. In the former, the model is learnt by minimizing a loss between aggregate responses and aggregate model predictions, while in the latter the model aims to fit individual predictions to the aggregate responses. In this work, we show that the instance-level loss can be perceived as a regularized form of the bag-level loss. This observation lets us compare the two approaches with respect to bias and variance of the resulting estimators, and introduce a novel interpolating estimator which combines the two approaches. For linear regression tasks, we provide a precise characterization of the risk of the interpolating estimator in an asymptotic regime where the size of the training set grows in proportion to the features dimension. Our analysis allows us to theoretically understand the effect of different factors, such as bag size on the model prediction risk. In addition, we propose a mechanism for differentially private learning from aggregate responses and derive the optimal bag size in terms of prediction risk-privacy trade-off. We also carry out thorough experiments to corroborate our theory and show the efficacy of the interpolating estimator.