Daily Papers

Testing equality of two high-dimensional covariance matrices is challenging when many entries differ only slightly. Dependence among sample covariance entries can also affect the finite-sample size and power of tests that aggregate their differences. We propose a studentized ell_2-type statistic that averages squared, marginally standardized differences between corresponding entries of the two sample covariance matrices. Before constructing the statistic, we apply the same nonsingular linear transformation to both samples. In the transformed coordinates, the covariance-equality hypothesis is unchanged, whereas the standardized differences and correlations among their estimators generally change. The transformation can therefore incorporate structural or scientific information without reducing dimension. We approximate the null distribution using a Gaussian multiplier bootstrap that uses coordinatewise studentization and avoids forming or inverting the full covariance matrix of the vectorized sample covariance entries. For deterministic transformations, we derive nonasymptotic Gaussian and bootstrap approximation bounds and establish asymptotic size validity and power consistency. We also show that replacing a population transformation by a same-sample estimator leaves the statistic and bootstrap critical value asymptotically unchanged in relative terms under an operator-norm convergence condition. Simulations show that suitable transformations improve size accuracy and power under weak dependence. An analysis of breast cancer gene-expression data illustrates the method.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed for tabular question answering, yet calibration on structured data is largely unstudied. This paper presents the first systematic comparison of five confidence estimation methods across five frontier LLMs and two tabular QA benchmarks. All models are severely overconfident (smooth ECE 0.35-0.64 versus 0.10-0.15 reported for textual QA). A consistent self-evaluation versus perturbation dichotomy replicates across both benchmarks and all four fully-covered models: self-evaluation methods (verbalized, P(True)) achieve AUROC 0.42-0.76, while perturbation methods (semantic entropy, self-consistency, and our Multi-Format Agreement) achieve AUROC 0.78-0.86. Per-model paired bootstrap tests reject the null at p<0.001 after Holm-Bonferroni correction, and a 3-seed check on GPT-4o-mini gives a per-seed standard deviation of only 0.006. The paper proposes Multi-Format Agreement (MFA), which exploits the lossless and deterministic serialization variation unique to structured data (Markdown, HTML, JSON, CSV) to estimate confidence at 20% lower API cost than sampling baselines. MFA reduces ECE by 44-63%, generalizes across all four models on TableBench (mean AUROC 0.80), and combines complementarily with sampling: an MFA + self-consistency ensemble lifts AUROC from 0.74 to 0.82. A secondary contribution, structure-aware recalibration, improves AUROC by +10 percentage points over standard post-hoc methods.

Neural information retrieval for Italian is served almost entirely by multilingual models. Several multi-vector (late-interaction) retrievers include Italian among dozens of languages, and several strong Italian dense embedders exist, but as of August 2026 no late-interaction retriever specialised on Italian had been released. We present ItColBERT, a 135M-parameter Italian ColBERT trained with PyLate following the ColBERT-Zero recipe: initialise from a checkpoint that already retrieves, then apply supervised contrastive training followed by single-teacher distillation, for a total of roughly 14.5 GPU-hours on one RTX 3090. Across four Italian retrieval benchmarks it outperforms every general-purpose late-interaction baseline we tested except one (mLateOn), at 2-4.4x fewer parameters than every baseline but one of comparable size. Our principal empirical finding is methodological and partly negative. On the only cleanly out-of-domain benchmark (MLDR-it), an inference-time chunking recipe applied to an unchanged checkpoint yields +0.0602 nDCG@10 (p = 0.0225), a larger effect than anything two further rounds of training produced. Self-mined hard negatives and native 1024-token training were both evaluated against pre-registered decision gates and both failed. We report every comparison with paired bootstrap tests against an empirically measured noise floor of 0.0030 nDCG@10, and we release the weights, the training and evaluation code, and the complete experimental record including the rejected rounds.

Speculative decoding accelerates large language model (LLM) inference by using a small draft model to propose candidate tokens that a larger target model verifies. A critical hyperparameter in this process is the speculation length γ, which determines how many tokens the draft model proposes per step. Nearly all existing systems use a fixed γ (typically 4), yet empirical evidence suggests that the optimal value varies across task types and, crucially, depends on the compression level applied to the target model. In this paper, we present SpecKV, a lightweight adaptive controller that selects γ per speculation step using signals extracted from the draft model itself. We profile speculative decoding across 4 task categories, 4 speculation lengths, and 3 compression levels (FP16, INT8, NF4), collecting 5,112 step-level records with per-step acceptance rates, draft entropy, and draft confidence. We demonstrate that the optimal γ shifts across compression regimes and that draft model confidence and entropy are strong predictors of acceptance rate (correlation approx 0.56). SpecKV uses a small MLP trained on these signals to maximize expected tokens per speculation step, achieving a 56.0% improvement over the fixed-γ=4 baseline with only 0.34 ms overhead per decision (<0.5% of step time). The improvement is statistically significant (p < 0.001, paired bootstrap test). We release all profiling data, trained models, and notebooks as open-source artifacts.

The asymptotic safety conjecture is examined for quantum gravity in four dimensions. Using the renormalisation group, we find evidence for an interacting UV fixed point for polynomial actions up to the 34th power in the Ricci scalar. The extrapolation to infinite polynomial order is given, and the self-consistency of the fixed point is established using a bootstrap test. All details of our analysis are provided. We also clarify further aspects such as stability, convergence, the role of boundary conditions, and a partial degeneracy of eigenvalues. Within this setting we find strong support for the conjecture.

Fashion attribute extraction is evaluated inconsistently: results are reported as single aggregate numbers across image types that pose different problems, fields that are not visible in an image are scored as ordinary negatives, and the effect of vocabulary mismatch between datasets is acknowledged but not measured. We release the MODA General Attribute Suite, a four-track benchmark that keeps these problems separate by construction. Each track (localized garment crops, catalogue product images, applicability-aware full-body photographs, and product text) carries its own frozen test set, input contract, metric, and leakage unit, and the tracks are never averaged. The protocol requires label-blind prediction, SHA-256 commitment of prediction files before any label is opened, a fail-closed scorer, and a 10,000-sample paired cluster bootstrap at each track's natural leakage unit; promotion requires a positive interval on every track rather than a favourable mean. We release the scorers, the split builders, our own prediction files with their hashes including the runs we lose, and the MODA_NER(V) model checkpoints for three of the four tracks. The text model is not distributed; its benchmark is. We report baseline results, six interventions that did not improve them, and the limitations of the evidence.

We introduce IndiaFinBench, to our knowledge the first publicly available evaluation benchmark for assessing large language model (LLM) performance on Indian financial regulatory text. Existing financial NLP benchmarks draw exclusively from Western financial corpora (SEC filings, US earnings reports, and English-language financial news), leaving a significant gap in coverage of non-Western regulatory frameworks. IndiaFinBench addresses this gap with 406 expert-annotated question-answer pairs drawn from 192 documents sourced from the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), spanning four task types: regulatory interpretation (174 items), numerical reasoning (92 items), contradiction detection (62 items), and temporal reasoning (78 items). Annotation quality is validated through a model-based secondary pass (kappa=0.918 on contradiction detection) and a 60-item human inter-annotator agreement evaluation (kappa=0.611; 76.7% overall agreement). We evaluate twelve models under zero-shot conditions, with accuracy ranging from 70.4% (Gemma 4 E4B) to 89.7% (Gemini 2.5 Flash). All models substantially outperform a non-specialist human baseline of 60.0%. Numerical reasoning is the most discriminative task, with a 35.9 percentage-point spread across models. Bootstrap significance testing (10,000 resamples) reveals three statistically distinct performance tiers. The dataset, evaluation code, and all model outputs are available at https://github.com/rajveerpall/IndiaFinBench

This paper studies attack detection for discrete-time linear systems with stochastic process noise that produce both a vulnerable (i.e., attackable) linear measurement and a secured (i.e., unattackable) quadratic measurement. The motivating application of this model is a dynamic-game setting where the quadratic measurement is interpreted as a system-level utility or reward, and control inputs into the linear system are interpreted as control policies that, once applied, are known to all game participants and which steer the system towards a game-theoretic equilibrium (e.g., Nash equilibrium). To detect attacks on the linear channel, we develop a novel quadratic-utility-aware observer that leverages the secured quadratic output and enforces measurement consistency via a projection step. We establish three properties for this observer: feasibility of the true state, prox-regularity of the quadratic-constraint set, and a monotone error-reduction guarantee in the noise-free case. To detect adversarial manipulation, we compare linear and quadratic observer trajectories using a wild bootstrap maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) test that provides valid inference under temporal dependence. We validate our framework using numerical experiments of a pursuit-evasion game, where the quadratic observer preserves estimation accuracy under linear-sensor attacks, while the statistical test detects distributional divergence between the observers' trajectories.

Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) systems critically depend on retrieval quality, yet no systematic comparison of modern retrieval methods exists for heterogeneous documents containing both text and tabular data. We benchmark ten retrieval strategies spanning sparse, dense, hybrid fusion, cross-encoder reranking, query expansion, index augmentation, and adaptive retrieval on a challenging financial QA benchmark of 23,088 queries over 7,318 documents with mixed text-and-table content. We evaluate retrieval quality via Recall@k, MRR, and nDCG, and end-to-end generation quality via Number Match, with paired bootstrap significance testing. Our results show that (1) a two-stage pipeline combining hybrid retrieval with neural reranking achieves Recall@5 of 0.816 and MRR@3 of 0.605, outperforming all single-stage methods by a large margin; (2) BM25 outperforms state-of-the-art dense retrieval on financial documents, challenging the common assumption that semantic search universally dominates; and (3) query expansion methods (HyDE, multi-query) and adaptive retrieval provide limited benefit for precise numerical queries, while contextual retrieval yields consistent gains. We provide ablation studies on fusion methods and reranker depth, actionable cost-accuracy recommendations, and release our full benchmark code.

A popular way to improve Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) is to rewrite the user's question into several variants and search with all of them. We test whether this actually helps once the underlying search is already strong. Under one fixed, competitive pipeline (BGE dense retrieval, cross-encoder reranking, and MMR diversification), we compare four query-rewriting strategies (S1-S4) against two strong LLM baselines (HyDE, Query2Doc) on three datasets (HotpotQA, AmbigNQ, and the 512K-document EnterpriseRAG-Bench) over three seeds with paired-bootstrap significance tests. Our headline result is that rewriting alone is at best competitive with a strong baseline, but combining methods yields outsized gains because different strategies fail on different questions. A post-hoc union of four methods (S1+S3+S4+HyDE) improves HIT@10 over the baseline by +12.5 points on enterprise data (51.70 vs 39.22), and a five-method union reaches 52.98 (+13.8). Budget-matched controls capture only ~40% of this gain, confirming that complementarity, not retrieval budget, is the primary driver. On HotpotQA the union adds +1.6 to +1.8 points (p<0.001), saturating the all-method oracle; on AmbigNQ the same fusion hurts (-2.4 below the best solo, p<0.001), and we analyze when and why. Because rewriting is expensive, we evaluate in simulation a confidence-gated router that runs rewriting only when the baseline's own top-1 score is low. It captures about half of the enterprise full-merge gain (+4.3 HIT@10) while paying rewriting cost on <40% of queries, and automatically declines to rewrite on AmbigNQ. A downstream answer-quality evaluation confirms the router improves F1 by +1.92 (p<0.01) at roughly 40% of the expansion cost. In short: treat query rewriting as a complementary coverage source, applied through cost-aware routing, not as a standalone replacement for a strong baseline.

Consistently checking the statistical significance of experimental results is one of the mandatory methodological steps to address the so-called "reproducibility crisis" in deep reinforcement learning. In this tutorial paper, we explain how the number of random seeds relates to the probabilities of statistical errors. For both the t-test and the bootstrap confidence interval test, we recall theoretical guidelines to determine the number of random seeds one should use to provide a statistically significant comparison of the performance of two algorithms. Finally, we discuss the influence of deviations from the assumptions usually made by statistical tests. We show that they can lead to inaccurate evaluations of statistical errors and provide guidelines to counter these negative effects. We make our code available to perform the tests.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed as tutors, but it is unclear whether they support all students equally well. We introduce EduFair-Bench, a benchmark for auditing the pedagogical fairness of LLM tutors---whether tutoring quality varies systematically with student demographics. EduFair-Bench pairs a multi-domain question bank (mathematics, physics, chemistry) with a controlled simulation in which a fixed LLM student interacts with each tutor across nine demographic levels spanning four dimensions: gender, immigration background, first language, and socioeconomic status (SES). Tutoring quality is scored on five turn-level pedagogical metrics and four conversation-level dimensions, using an LLM judge validated against three-annotator consensus on 180 tutor turns. Bias is measured via paired Wilcoxon signed-rank tests and bootstrap effect-size confidence intervals. Two ablations (demographic cues conveyed through names; conflicting demographic information between tutor and student) disentangle tutor-driven from student-driven bias. Across five tutors, we find that model capability and demographic fairness are largely orthogonal: the smallest model is the most consistent while the four more capable tutors all exhibit wide demographic gaps with no clear capability-to-fairness ordering, pedagogy-specific RL training redistributes rather than removes bias, and language- and immigration-related cues produce larger gaps than gender- and SES-related cues.

Large language models (LLMs) have fueled many intelligent agent tasks, such as web navigation -- but most existing agents perform far from satisfying in real-world webpages due to three factors: (1) the versatility of actions on webpages, (2) HTML text exceeding model processing capacity, and (3) the complexity of decision-making due to the open-domain nature of web. In light of the challenge, we develop AutoWebGLM, a GPT-4-outperforming automated web navigation agent built upon ChatGLM3-6B. Inspired by human browsing patterns, we design an HTML simplification algorithm to represent webpages, preserving vital information succinctly. We employ a hybrid human-AI method to build web browsing data for curriculum training. Then, we bootstrap the model by reinforcement learning and rejection sampling to further facilitate webpage comprehension, browser operations, and efficient task decomposition by itself. For testing, we establish a bilingual benchmark -- AutoWebBench -- for real-world web browsing tasks. We evaluate AutoWebGLM across diverse web navigation benchmarks, revealing its improvements but also underlying challenges to tackle real environments. Related code, model, and data will be released at https://github.com/THUDM/AutoWebGLM.

Long Short Term Memory LSTM-based structures have demonstrated their efficiency for daily living recognition activities in smart homes by capturing the order of sensor activations and their temporal dependencies. Nevertheless, they still fail in dealing with the semantics and the context of the sensors. More than isolated id and their ordered activation values, sensors also carry meaning. Indeed, their nature and type of activation can translate various activities. Their logs are correlated with each other, creating a global context. We propose to use and compare two Natural Language Processing embedding methods to enhance LSTM-based structures in activity-sequences classification tasks: Word2Vec, a static semantic embedding, and ELMo, a contextualized embedding. Results, on real smart homes datasets, indicate that this approach provides useful information, such as a sensor organization map, and makes less confusion between daily activity classes. It helps to better perform on datasets with competing activities of other residents or pets. Our tests show also that the embeddings can be pretrained on different datasets than the target one, enabling transfer learning. We thus demonstrate that taking into account the context of the sensors and their semantics increases the classification performances and enables transfer learning.

We introduce the use of reinforcement-learning (RL) techniques to the conformal-bootstrap programme. We demonstrate that suitable soft Actor-Critic RL algorithms can perform efficient, relatively cheap high-dimensional searches in the space of scaling dimensions and OPE-squared coefficients that produce sensible results for tens of CFT data from a single crossing equation. In this paper we test this approach in well-known 2D CFTs, with particular focus on the Ising and tri-critical Ising models and the free compactified boson CFT. We present results of as high as 36-dimensional searches, whose sole input is the expected number of operators per spin in a truncation of the conformal-block decomposition of the crossing equations. Our study of 2D CFTs uses only the global so(2,2) part of the conformal algebra, and our methods are equally applicable to higher-dimensional CFTs. When combined with other, already available, numerical and analytical methods, we expect our approach to yield an exciting new window into the non-perturbative structure of arbitrary (unitary or non-unitary) CFTs.

We extend molecular bootstrap embedding to make it appropriate for implementation on a quantum computer. This enables solution of the electronic structure problem of a large molecule as an optimization problem for a composite Lagrangian governing fragments of the total system, in such a way that fragment solutions can harness the capabilities of quantum computers. By employing state-of-art quantum subroutines including the quantum SWAP test and quantum amplitude amplification, we show how a quadratic speedup can be obtained over the classical algorithm, in principle. Utilization of quantum computation also allows the algorithm to match -- at little additional computational cost -- full density matrices at fragment boundaries, instead of being limited to 1-RDMs. Current quantum computers are small, but quantum bootstrap embedding provides a potentially generalizable strategy for harnessing such small machines through quantum fragment matching.

Recent machine learning papers often report 1-2 percentage point improvements from a single run on a benchmark. These gains are highly sensitive to random seeds, data ordering, and implementation details, yet are rarely accompanied by uncertainty estimates or significance tests. It is therefore unclear when a reported +1-2% reflects a real algorithmic advance versus noise. We revisit this problem under realistic compute budgets, where only a few runs are affordable. We propose a simple, PC-friendly evaluation protocol based on paired multi-seed runs, bias-corrected and accelerated (BCa) bootstrap confidence intervals, and a sign-flip permutation test on per-seed deltas. The protocol is intentionally conservative and is meant as a guardrail against over-claiming. We instantiate it on CIFAR-10, CIFAR-10N, and AG News using synthetic no-improvement, small-gain, and medium-gain scenarios. Single runs and unpaired t-tests often suggest significant gains for 0.6-2.0 point improvements, especially on text. With only three seeds, our paired protocol never declares significance in these settings. We argue that such conservative evaluation is a safer default for small gains under tight budgets.

ICC's current ranking system does not adequately account for key contextual factors such as home advantage, toss impact and scheduling imbalances; leading to inconsistencies in team evaluation in Test cricket. This study develops an enhanced rating framework by adapting and enhancing Glicko's model to incorporate these influences alongside Margin of Victory, an important indicator of dominance a contest. This enables a more dynamic and probabilistically grounded assessment of team performance. Using past match data, the model demonstrates improved expected score estimation and predictive accuracy. Robustness of the resulting ratings is demonstrated through bootstrap resampling, confirming stability with respect to match scheduling. Overall, the framework provides a fairer and more statistically consistent approach to ranking Test teams.

Population-level behavior in large-language-model (LLM) agents cannot be characterized by single-agent benchmarks. We introduce PV-SST, a peer-voted social-platform testbed, and report a separately frozen, preregistered matched-exposure experiment spanning four topics, four unused seeds, four open-weight model families, and three prespecified larger variants. The experiment comprises 448 trials and 112 complete model-by-topic-by-seed blocks. Relative to a topic-only control, a feed of previous-round peer posts ranked by peer-generated likes increases final-round lexical similarity in both the four-family core panel (paired mean difference +0.0082 TF-IDF cosine units, 95% block-bootstrap CI [0.0043, 0.0121], randomization p=0.000105, n=64 blocks) and the three-variant size extension (+0.0109 [0.0069, 0.0151], p=0.000001, n=48). This contrast bundles peer-post exposure with ranking and therefore does not identify a ranking-only effect. Opposite-side survival falls in the core panel (-3.9 percentage points [-6.8, -1.6], p=0.0068) but not conclusively in the larger variants (-1.0 pp [-3.1, 0.4], p=0.50). Holding adversarial impressions fixed, four distributed sources do not reliably move honest-agent stance more than one source. The preregistered distributed-minus-single contrast is positive but inconclusive in the core panel (+0.057 [-0.009, 0.125], p=0.112) and negative in the larger variants (-0.040 [-0.113, 0.035], p=0.332), failing the prespecified cross-model and cross-topic consistency criterion. Thus the robust result is lexical convergence under the tested peer-ranked feed, not general opinion capture or a general coordination advantage. The study evaluates synthetic LLM-agent populations; it does not estimate effects on people or production platforms.

Recent advancements in software engineering agents have demonstrated promising capabilities in automating program improvements. However, their reliance on closed-source or resource-intensive models introduces significant deployment challenges in private environments, prompting a critical question: How can personally deployable open-source LLMs achieve comparable code reasoning performance? To this end, we propose a unified Test-Time Compute scaling framework that leverages increased inference-time computation instead of larger models. Our framework incorporates two complementary strategies: internal TTC and external TTC. Internally, we introduce a development-contextualized trajectory synthesis method leveraging real-world software repositories to bootstrap multi-stage reasoning processes, such as fault localization and patch generation. We further enhance trajectory quality through rejection sampling, rigorously evaluating trajectories along accuracy and complexity. Externally, we propose a novel development-process-based search strategy guided by reward models and execution verification. This approach enables targeted computational allocation at critical development decision points, overcoming limitations of existing "end-point only" verification methods. Evaluations on SWE-bench Verified demonstrate our 32B model achieves a 46\% issue resolution rate, surpassing significantly larger models such as DeepSeek R1 671B and OpenAI o1. Additionally, we provide the empirical validation of the test-time scaling phenomenon within SWE agents, revealing that models dynamically allocate more tokens to increasingly challenging problems, effectively enhancing reasoning capabilities. We publicly release all training data, models, and code to facilitate future research. https://github.com/yingweima2022/SWE-Reasoner

Streaming spoken agents may produce the correct final action after acting too early. Final-turn scores do not reveal whether each observed speech prefix supports an exposed action. We introduce the Partial Speech Action Contract for Turn Taking in Speech Language Models (PACT-SLM), a controlled test that assigns the first valid action time and evaluates both action identity and timing. In the primary test, 80 paired contrast groups from four held-out semantic families yield 1,600 prefix predictions across clean and 15 dB noise renderings. Using source-utterance semantic targets rather than counterbalanced branch codes, WavLM Base Plus reaches 26.03% pooled post-onset semantic-label accuracy (95% group-bootstrap interval [22.14%, 29.68%]), exposes an action on 18.99% of pre-onset prefixes, and predicts 5.94% of complete trajectories exactly. Its pooled label score is at the 96th percentile of 100 within-prefix label permutations, below the 97.5th-percentile reference (26.73%). It exceeds matched text, scalar-acoustic, and shuffled-representation probes in pooled post-onset label accuracy. Elapsed time is more onset-exact (36.25% versus 23.13%) but less accurate about action identity (9.92% versus 26.03%). These results motivate separate measurement of action identity and onset timing in partial-speech evaluations.

Purpose : To develop and evaluate CAPTOR, a deep-learning vision-language foundation model for oncologic chest-abdomen-pelvis (CAP) CT interpretation. Materials & Methods : CAPTOR (Chest-Abdomen-Pelvis foundaTion model for Oncologic Radiology) is a contrastive vision-language model, trained using a pretraining strategy for oncologic CAP CT (in single- or multiple-series acquisitions), on a multicenter retrospective dataset from North America, Europe and Asia, predominantly from tumor lesion examinations. CAPTOR was compared with state-of-the-art CT foundation models on three downstream tasks: disease detection, survival prediction using TumorImagingBench and image retrieval. Classification and retrieval were both evaluated on held-out internal and public test sets, stratified by anatomical coverage and indication. Bootstrap resampling was used to estimate confidence intervals, and pairwise comparisons were performed using permutation tests. Results : CAPTOR was trained and tested on 25,512 and 10,794 CT-report pairs respectively. TumorImagingBench datasets comprised between 134 and 421 studies each. CAPTOR outperformed all baseline models, on the classification task, on the CAP subset (AUC 0.767, 95%CI: 0.734-0.793, vs. 0.695, 95%CI: 0.645-0.736 for the next-best, p<0.001) and oncologic subset (AUC 0.784, 95%CI: 0.759-0.805, vs. 0.734, 95%CI: 0.703-0.767 p<0.001), ranked first on three of the four oncologic prognostic benchmarks, and achieved superior retrieval performance on CAP and oncologic subsets. Conclusion : A foundation model trained on oncology-enriched CAP CT data outperformed relevant state-of-the-art models in its target clinical context, underscoring the importance of clinically aligned pretraining. We release our preprocessing, training and inference code : https://github.com/Guerbet-AI/CAPTOR and model weights : https://huggingface.co/Guerbet-AI/CAPTOR

Self-consistency has emerged as a popular technique for improving large language model accuracy on reasoning tasks. The approach is straightforward: generate multiple reasoning paths and select the most common answer through majority voting. While this reliably boosts accuracy, it remains unclear whether these gains reflect genuine improvements in reasoning quality. We investigate a fundamental question that has not been studied before: does inference scaling improve reasoning faithfulness? We conduct a comprehensive empirical study across four frontier models (GPT-5.2, Claude Opus 4.5, Gemini-3-flash-preview, and DeepSeek-v3.2) on 100 GSM8K mathematical reasoning problems. Our analysis employs bootstrap confidence intervals, McNemar's tests for paired comparisons, and Cohen's d effect sizes to quantify the effects rigorously. The results reveal striking differences across models that challenge common assumptions about self-consistency. GPT-5.2 shows the expected pattern: accuracy improves from 78% to 90% at N=5, with faithfulness remaining relatively stable (0.540 to 0.510). Claude Opus 4.5 tells a completely different story. Its accuracy actually drops from 78% to 74.3% while faithfulness jumps dramatically from 0.270 to 0.891 at N=5. DeepSeek-v3.2, already at 98% accuracy, shows ceiling effects with modest faithfulness gains (0.440 to 0.541). Gemini-3-flash improves from 81% to 86% accuracy with a slight faithfulness decrease (0.260 to 0.212). Problem difficulty analysis reveals that GPT-5.2 solves 82% of hard problems while breaking only 13% of easy ones. Claude, in contrast, breaks 23% of easy problems, explaining its accuracy decrease. These findings matter for practitioners: self-consistency is not universally beneficial, and teams should test their specific models before deployment. We release our code and provide practical recommendations for navigating these tradeoffs.

This paper argues for the widest possible use of bootstrap confidence intervals for comparing NLP system performances instead of the state-of-the-art status (SOTA) and statistical significance testing. Their main benefits are to draw attention to the difference in performance between two systems and to help assessing the degree of superiority of one system over another. Two cases studies, one comparing several systems and the other based on a K-fold cross-validation procedure, illustrate these benefits. A python module for obtaining these confidence intervals as well as a second function implementing the Fisher-Pitman test for paired samples are freely available on PyPi.

OpenClaw-style agent stacks turn language into privileged execution: LLM intents flow through tool interception, policy gates, and a local executor. In parallel, skill marketplaces such as skills.sh make capability acquisition as easy as installing skills and CLIs, creating a growing capability supply chain. Together, these trends shift the dominant safety failure mode from "wrong answers" to execution-induced loss, where untrusted prompts, compromised skills, or narrative manipulation can trigger real trades and irreversible side effects. We propose Survivability-Aware Execution (SAE), an execution-layer survivability standard for OpenClaw-style systems and skill-enabled agents. SAE sits as middleware between a strategy engine (LLM or non-LLM) and the exchange executor. It defines an explicit execution contract (ExecutionRequest, ExecutionContext, ExecutionDecision) and enforces non-bypassable last-mile invariants: projection-based exposure budgets, cooldown and order-rate limits, slippage bounds, staged execution, and tool/venue allowlists. To make delegated execution testable under supply-chain risk, we operationalize the Delegation Gap (DG) via a logged Intended Policy Spec that enables deterministic out-of-scope labeling and reproducible DG metrics. On an offline replay using official Binance USD-M BTCUSDT/ETHUSDT perpetual data (15m; 2025-09-01--2025-12-01, incl. funding), SAE improves survivability: MDD drops from 0.4643 to 0.0319 (Full; 93.1%), |CVaR_0.99| shrinks from 4.025e-3 to ~1.02e-4 (~97.5%), and DG loss proxy falls from 0.647 to 0.019 (~97.0%). AttackSuccess decreases from 1.00 to 0.728 with zero FalseBlock in this run. Block bootstrap, paired Wilcoxon, and two-proportion tests confirm the shifts. SAE reframes agentic trading safety for the OpenClaw+skills era: treat upstream intent and skills as untrusted, and enforce survivability where actions become side effects.

Professional-document review is a constraint-checking problem in which decisions depend on relations among text, geometry, pages, and document revisions. We present an evidence-grounded pipeline that normalizes extracted facts, executes four-state rules deterministically, retains source spans, and escalates unresolved cases. We evaluate its PDF evidence allocator on 160 reference-based tasks from 29 construction projects using a repeated four-system test and a disjoint two-system breadth extension. In the repeated test, reallocating a four-image budget from retrieved page overviews to one overview and three overlapping tiles improves project-family standardized decision accuracy by 10.6 percentage points (95% project-cluster bootstrap CI: 4.3 to 18.0; exact p = 0.031). This effect does not persist in the broader block: Region-RAG changes accuracy by -4.1 points (95% CI: -10.2 to 1.9; exact p = 0.209), while an equal-image sensitivity favors page breadth. Exact finding-set recovery remains low, false passes remain common, and repeated-run agreement is poorly calibrated. The results identify a resolution-breadth trade-off rather than a universal advantage for region-focused evidence, motivating rule-aware evidence routing and expert review.

Experiments with pre-trained models such as BERT are often based on a single checkpoint. While the conclusions drawn apply to the artifact tested in the experiment (i.e., the particular instance of the model), it is not always clear whether they hold for the more general procedure which includes the architecture, training data, initialization scheme, and loss function. Recent work has shown that repeating the pre-training process can lead to substantially different performance, suggesting that an alternate strategy is needed to make principled statements about procedures. To enable researchers to draw more robust conclusions, we introduce the MultiBERTs, a set of 25 BERT-Base checkpoints, trained with similar hyper-parameters as the original BERT model but differing in random weight initialization and shuffling of training data. We also define the Multi-Bootstrap, a non-parametric bootstrap method for statistical inference designed for settings where there are multiple pre-trained models and limited test data. To illustrate our approach, we present a case study of gender bias in coreference resolution, in which the Multi-Bootstrap lets us measure effects that may not be detected with a single checkpoint. We release our models and statistical library along with an additional set of 140 intermediate checkpoints captured during pre-training to facilitate research on learning dynamics.

Retrieval-augmented generation systems increasingly rely on document-structure treatments: structure-aligned chunking, LLM-generated chunk contexts, heading-path metadata, and hierarchical two-stage retrieval. Separate studies support each on different corpora, embedders, and metrics, and none control for a shared confound: any text prepended to a chunk perturbs its embedding. We present a mechanism-isolating ablation testing all four treatments under one protocol, matching chunk sizes across conditions and adding a semantically null placebo---heading paths that are structurally valid but shuffled across documents. We score retrieval with a coverage-aware nDCG and test four pre-registered contrasts via document-clustered bootstrap with Holm correction, on two distant corpora: 200 Wikipedia Featured Articles (951 queries) and 1,585 QASPER papers (4,303 questions). Organization helps, and the cause is content, not tokens: structure-aligned chunks with real heading paths beat contextualized fixed windows (+0.022 / +0.012 cov-nDCG@10) and the placebo (+0.010 / +0.016). Naive two-stage hierarchical retrieval hurts (-0.033 / -0.015), traceable to first-stage section recall. Gold structure beats LLM-induced structure on Wikipedia but not on QASPER. Effects are small (dz 0.06-0.11) but Holm-significant and consistent across corpora.

Tool-augmented language-model agents execute multi-step workflows over external systems, resolving an entity once and then acting on it across subsequent steps. Prior work shows that in single-step actions, agents select the correct tool but bind it to the wrong entity 24-26% of the time. We study what happens to entity bindings over time: do they stay correct, silently drift to a different entity, or, if wrong from the start, propagate and compound? We formalize binding drift (correct at step 1, wrong later) as distinct from error propagation (wrong at step 1, carried forward), and score them on disjoint workflow sets so the two cannot be conflated. In a controlled multi-step testbed (200 workflows, 580 entity-binding-scored steps, four enterprise domains, eight model backends spanning small to frontier), we find: (1) under controlled error injection, an entity lock (the intuitive "persist the first binding" fix) amplifies wrong actions from 907 to 2,746 (3.0x; bootstrap 95% CI [2.8, 3.3]), because it faithfully carries the seeded wrong entity into every later step; (2) the amplification reaches 8.5x on the most affected model (Claude Opus 4.5); (3) a practical LLM-based re-verifier (a single cheap second model call re-reading the original instruction) reduces wrong actions by 79% (0.21x; CI [0.18, 0.25]), closing the gap to within 1 percentage point of an oracle upper-bound (0.20x); and (4) in the natural (non-injected) setting, baseline agents drift on 18% of eligible workflows, with the per-step error rate rising across steps. Persistence and re-verification are not interchangeable: a defense that eliminates drift can worsen propagation, and a practical re-verifier nearly matches oracle recovery.

We audit the multimodal-physics evaluation pipeline end-to-end and document three undetected construction practices that distort how the field measures vision-language reasoning: train-eval contamination, translation drift, and MCQ saturation. (1) Public training pools (UGPhysics-Train, SciInstruct, MMK12) pass single-stage 5-gram-Jaccard audits with zero hits across all six public physics evals; a three-stage audit (Jaccard -> mxbai-embed-large cosine -> Haiku-4.5 LLM-judge) surfaces 134 near-duplicates and 4,846 paraphrase candidates in SciInstruct alone. (2) A 17-pp Sonnet 4.5 delta on 59 paired Estonian-English olympiad problems (30.5% vs. 13.6%; sign test p=0.011, McNemar p=0.021, paired bootstrap 95% CI [+5.1, +28.9] pp). (3) A 46-pp format-and-novelty gradient on identical Sonnet weights between MCQ (79.7% on PhyX) and open-ended olympiad evaluation (33.4% on PhysOlym-A). We release four artifacts addressing these gaps: PhysCorp-A (6,432-record three-stage-audited multimodal corpus), PhysR1Corp (2,268-record closed-form RL pool), PhysOlym-A (500-problem, 99.8% novel-source held-out olympiad eval with native difficulty labels and an EN/ET bilingual subset), and Physics-R1, a reference GSPO+DAPO recipe cold-started from Qwen3-VL-8B-Thinking. Across 3 seeds, Physics-R1 lifts the audited corpus over the 8B base by +18.3 pp on PhysOlym-A liberal (8.0 -> 26.3 +/- 1.7; 7.1 pp behind Sonnet 4.5), +15.7 pp on PhysReason (23.9 -> 39.6 +/- 6.4; ahead of Qwen3-VL-32B and Gemini 2.5 Pro), +6.9 pp on OlympiadBench-Physics (46.2 +/- 1.5), and +4.1 pp on PhyX MCQ (77.8 +/- 0.3).

Long-horizon robot manipulation tends to fail gradually: one bad step degrades the state, and the policy spirals into a basin from which it cannot recover. The failure is often visible before it happens. We introduce AEGIS (Activation-probe Early-warning, Gated Inference Switching), a selective escalation method that uses a lightweight probe on a weak policy's frozen activations to detect high-risk steps while there is still time to act. When the probe flags a step, control switches to a stronger separate policy, but only for the steps that need it. On LIBERO-Spatial, AEGIS recovers 10.1% of the trajectories the weak policy alone loses, versus 4.6% for budget-matched blind escalation and 5.1% for a random-trigger placebo. These gains are significant under one-sided exact paired McNemar tests with Holm-Bonferroni adjustment over three pre-registered contrasts: +5.4pp over blind escalation, p=8.5e-6; +5.0pp over random triggering, p=1.0e-4; paired-trajectory bootstrap CIs exclude zero. AEGIS activates the stronger policy on only 38% of steps, so the lever is timing rather than compute. The probe clears its precondition with an early-window AUROC of 0.764, 95% CI [0.70, 0.84], read from the weak-policy path over the first 30% of trajectory steps before any handoff. We pre-register the full analysis plan, including a conditional recovered-task-rate estimand and explicit kill criteria, and confirm the result on 700 common-random-number episodes per arm, with nA-fail=646.

Activation oracles aim to make the activations of other models legible to humans and yield promising results compared to white-box interpretability techniques. However, uncertainty quantification (UQ) for the natural-language outputs of such activation oracles is so far understudied. Here, we investigate 6 different methods for estimating the confidence of activation oracles and evaluate how well-calibrated their confidence scores are. Our experiments on 6,000 samples per oracle (varying verbalizer and context prompts) reveal that bootstrap mode frequency is the best-calibrated method among those tested (ECE 5.7% vs. 25.5% for the answer-word log-probability on Qwen3-8B; 10.3% vs. 13.1% on Qwen3.6-27B), and that the log-prob baseline can serve as a fast triage signal at a fraction of the cost. Code and the patched trainer are available at https://github.com/federicotorrielli/probabilistic_activation_oracles.

Evaluating large language models at scale remains a practical bottleneck for many organizations. While existing evaluation frameworks work well for thousands of examples, they struggle when datasets grow to hundreds of thousands or millions of samples. This scale is common when assessing model behavior across diverse domains or conducting comprehensive regression testing. We present Spark-LLM-Eval, a distributed evaluation framework built natively on Apache Spark. The system treats evaluation as a data-parallel problem, partitioningexamplesacrossexecutorsandaggregatingresultswithproperstatistical accounting. Beyond raw throughput, we emphasize statistical rigor: every reported metric includes bootstrap confidence intervals, and model comparisons come with appropriate significance tests (paired t-tests, McNemar's test, or Wilcoxon signed-rank, depending on the metric type). The framework also addresses the cost problem inherent in LLM evaluation through content-addressable response caching backed by Delta Lake, which allows iterating on metric definitions without re-running inference. We describe the system architecture, the statistical methodology, and report benchmark results showing linear scaling with cluster size. The framework and all evaluation code are available as open source.

Code generated by large language models passes security checks at a rate that has barely moved in four years. In regulated backends, the defect classes that matter most are money arithmetic, time handling, retry safety, and access control. Teams answer with instruction files, yet the largest controlled study of instruction files to date found no benefit. This paper tests a narrower idea: generated code improves when the prompt carries a specification, a fixed preamble stating what must be true of the result. We pre-registered hypotheses, refuters, analysis code, and a one-shot generation rule, then ran 50 realistic backend tasks from finance, healthcare, and insurance practice through five frontier models from five vendor lineages, each task twice: bare, and preceded by a 267-word filled specification frame. Nine deterministic AST-based checkers scored the outputs. The Bandit security scanner, which knows nothing of the frame, scored them independently. The frame reduced defects in all five models (mean reduction 0.16 to 0.70 findings per task, every Holm-adjusted sign test significant, every bootstrap confidence interval excluding zero). Where the arms differed, the frame arm won 95 of 100 times. It never made any model worse in any domain. Bandit found 53 medium-or-high issues in the bare arm and 11 in the frame arm, in the same direction for every model. The effect was largest where a model's unprompted defaults were weakest: the frame supplies the discipline a model lacks. All 500 outputs, prompts, checkers, scoring code, and the pre-registration are published with a DOI, so any team can re-derive the result without trusting the author.

Large language model (LLM) agents increasingly take actions (screening applicants, recommending credit, triaging patients), yet fairness for LLMs is still measured by grading answers. We introduce AgentFairBench, a cheap, reproducible, multi-domain benchmark for demographic disparity in the actions of LLM agents. Grounded in a companion framework, the Bias Conduction Framework (BCF, restated here), it spans three regulator-anchored domains: hiring, lending, and medical triage. Synthetic, demographic-neutral profiles are evaluated in counterfactual matched sets that vary only a name-coded race x gender signal (in the Bertrand Mullainathan tradition), under four agent scaffolds of increasing agency (direct, chain-of-thought, multi-agent deliberation, tool-augmented). A NumPy-only harness computes counterfactual flip rate, mean absolute score difference (MASD), action-rate disparity, and tool-invocation disparity, with bootstrap confidence intervals, paired tests, and false-discovery-rate control, for single-digit dollars per model. A live leaderboard with a held-out private split and a contamination canary admits external models by submission. Our pilot (864 decisions plus a test-retest replication) carries a methodological lesson: comparing a six-group score spread against a two-run noise difference overstates disparity by ~ 2.4X through statistic arity alone. Against an arity matched noise floor and an omnibus group test, claude haiku 4 5 shows no demographic effect above sampling noise (0 of 120 pairwise and 0 of 9 omnibus contrasts survive correction); a planted-bias test confirms the instrument detects disparity when present. The contribution is a sound, sensitive, adoption-ready instrument, the arity matched null methodology, and open artifacts to scale it. Code, data, and harness are released under open licenses, with an anonymized review artifact.

Explainability is increasingly required for perception models in intelligent vehicles, yet whether explanations remain faithful under driving domain shift is still poorly understood. This work audits post-hoc explanations of a fixed YOLOv8s pedestrian detector across PIE and JAAD using ROI-based D-Deletion, frozen confidence terciles, rank-based tests, bootstrap intervals, and Holm correction. The audit shows that deletion-based faithfulness is strongly coupled to detection strength at explanation time, with Spearman correlations between 0.70 and 0.82 for D-RISE, making naive confidence-stratified comparisons unreliable. After controlling for detection strength within fixed f0 bins, D-RISE faithfulness remains domain-dependent in the central f0 range, with PIE showing higher D-Deletion than JAAD and Holm-adjusted significance. A non-perturbative EigenCAM baseline is less faithful than D-RISE but also exhibits score coupling, suggesting that the effect is not specific to D-RISE and is related to the deletion-based evaluation setup. These results motivate confidence-controlled XAI audits for safety-critical perception under domain shift.

Clinical decision-support systems are expert systems whose recommendations clinicians act on directly, yet they are usually cleared on one aggregate accuracy number from a held-out test set. That number says nothing about input reliability under encoding shifts, subgroup gaps, threshold sensitivity, or operational feasibility. We present RISED, a pre-deployment evaluation framework operationalising five dimensions (Reliability, Inclusivity, Sensitivity, Equity, Deployability) through BCa bootstrap 95% confidence intervals, literature-grounded thresholds, and Holm-Bonferroni-corrected PASS / FAIL / INCONCLUSIVE verdicts; Equity is a proxy-dependence diagnostic rather than a gating test. Applied to seven cohorts spanning 35 years (n from 303 to 99,492), RISED surfaces failures invisible to AUROC: on Diabetes 130, Reliability passes by three orders of magnitude (PSS = 0.0004) while Inclusivity (AUC parity gap = 0.262) and Sensitivity (max threshold-flip rate 49.1%) fail decisively; both NHIS cohorts reproduce this. NHANES 2021-2023, with a complete feature profile, achieves INCONCLUSIVE verdicts; BRFSS 2024 produces the suite's most severe Sensitivity failure (max threshold-flip rate 64.2%) after instrument rotation removed hypertension and cholesterol. The pattern recurs on credit- and income-prediction cohorts, confirming domain-agnosticity; a multi-model check shows the failures are data-driven, not model-specific. RISED ships as an open-source Python package complementing TRIPOD+AI, FUTURE-AI, and Fairlearn with the structured numerical evidence those standards require but do not prescribe.

Embedding-based code retrieval is a core component of coding agents and retrieval-augmented code generation, where retrieving correct code matters more than retrieving lexically similar code. Existing code-retrieval benchmarks do not plant controlled, execution-verified single-edit variants of each query's canonical implementation in the search pool, leaving the question of whether embeddings can functionally discriminate correct from near-clone-but-incorrect code unanswered in a retrieval setting. Resolving this requires a benchmark whose search pool itself contains the relevant counterfactuals -- execution-verified buggy variants near-identical to each canonical -- so that a retriever's rank ordering can be directly tested for functional discrimination rather than topical or identity overlap. We introduce ExecRetrieval, 939 Python tasks each paired with one execution-verified canonical implementation and up to four execution-verified buggy distractors, each generated by a mechanical mutation making a single targeted edit, and evaluate 23 dense embedding configurations plus BM25 under provider-native invocation with paired McNemar tests and query-level bootstrap intervals. With near-clone counterfactuals in the pool, the top hosted system reaches exec@10 = 1.00 but only exec@1 = 0.331; rank-1 misses are paired buggy variants 91.5-99.4% of the time across the four leading systems, and the canonical scores below at least one of its four paired distractors in 67-78% of queries on the leading systems. The full dataset, execution oracle, embedding matrices, environment snapshot, and pairwise statistical tests are released at the URL in Appendix D.

The bootstrap is a popular data-driven method to quantify statistical uncertainty, but for modern high-dimensional problems, it could suffer from huge computational costs due to the need to repeatedly generate resamples and refit models. We study the use of bootstraps in high-dimensional environments with a small number of resamples. In particular, we show that with a recent "cheap" bootstrap perspective, using a number of resamples as small as one could attain valid coverage even when the dimension grows closely with the sample size, thus strongly supporting the implementability of the bootstrap for large-scale problems. We validate our theoretical results and compare the performance of our approach with other benchmarks via a range of experiments.

The correct use of model evaluation, model selection, and algorithm selection techniques is vital in academic machine learning research as well as in many industrial settings. This article reviews different techniques that can be used for each of these three subtasks and discusses the main advantages and disadvantages of each technique with references to theoretical and empirical studies. Further, recommendations are given to encourage best yet feasible practices in research and applications of machine learning. Common methods such as the holdout method for model evaluation and selection are covered, which are not recommended when working with small datasets. Different flavors of the bootstrap technique are introduced for estimating the uncertainty of performance estimates, as an alternative to confidence intervals via normal approximation if bootstrapping is computationally feasible. Common cross-validation techniques such as leave-one-out cross-validation and k-fold cross-validation are reviewed, the bias-variance trade-off for choosing k is discussed, and practical tips for the optimal choice of k are given based on empirical evidence. Different statistical tests for algorithm comparisons are presented, and strategies for dealing with multiple comparisons such as omnibus tests and multiple-comparison corrections are discussed. Finally, alternative methods for algorithm selection, such as the combined F-test 5x2 cross-validation and nested cross-validation, are recommended for comparing machine learning algorithms when datasets are small.

We study the problem of optimizing biological sequences, e.g., proteins, DNA, and RNA, to maximize a black-box score function that is only evaluated in an offline dataset. We propose a novel solution, bootstrapped training of score-conditioned generator (BootGen) algorithm. Our algorithm repeats a two-stage process. In the first stage, our algorithm trains the biological sequence generator with rank-based weights to enhance the accuracy of sequence generation based on high scores. The subsequent stage involves bootstrapping, which augments the training dataset with self-generated data labeled by a proxy score function. Our key idea is to align the score-based generation with a proxy score function, which distills the knowledge of the proxy score function to the generator. After training, we aggregate samples from multiple bootstrapped generators and proxies to produce a diverse design. Extensive experiments show that our method outperforms competitive baselines on biological sequential design tasks. We provide reproducible source code: https://github.com/kaist-silab/bootgen{https://github.com/kaist-silab/bootgen}.

Assessing sampling uncertainty in extremum estimation can be challenging when the asymptotic variance is not analytically tractable. Bootstrap inference offers a feasible solution but can be computationally costly especially when the model is complex. This paper uses iterates of a specially designed stochastic optimization algorithm as draws from which both point estimates and bootstrap standard errors can be computed in a single run. The draws are generated by the gradient and Hessian computed from batches of data that are resampled at each iteration. We show that these draws yield consistent estimates and asymptotically valid frequentist inference for a large class of regular problems. The algorithm provides accurate standard errors in simulation examples and empirical applications at low computational costs. The draws from the algorithm also provide a convenient way to detect data irregularities.

This paper introduces a structural equation formulation that gives rise to a new family of quasi-periodic Gaussian processes, useful to process a broad class of natural and physiological signals. The proposed formulation simplifies generation and forecasting, and provides hyperparameter estimates, which we exploit in a convergent and consistent iterative estimation algorithm. A bootstrap approach for standard error estimation and confidence intervals is also provided. We demonstrate the computational and scaling benefits of the proposed approach on a broad class of problems, including water level tidal analysis, CO_{2} emission data, and sunspot numbers data. By leveraging the structural equations, our method reduces the cost of likelihood evaluations and predictions from O(k^2 p^2) to O(p^2), significantly improving scalability.

Sequential trial emulation (STE) estimates the effect of a sustained treatment by stacking nested emulated trials with inverse-probability weighting. Additive-hazards STE estimators of the marginal risk difference recommend the nonparametric bootstrap without evaluating its coverage. Using a correctly-specifiable mechanism (up to a small, disclosed residual), we compare analytic and bootstrap standard errors for both estimands. Exploiting the closed-form linearity of the additive-hazards estimating equation, we derive the influence functions and prove the default row-level robust variance inconsistent for the marginal risk-difference curve, and show the same failure empirically for the constant hazard difference: the row-level variance omits a within-subject cross-trial covariance that is positive under a sign condition we verify across our mechanisms, and is anticonservative at every horizon except the first - only there, where the covariance is zero, is the row-level standard error unimpaired. The subject-clustered variance and multiplier bootstrap are consistent for the fixed-weight linearisation and support simultaneous confidence bands, whose measured coverage is 0.88. Across our simulations the model-based and row-level robust intervals are anticonservative and worsen with sample size, coverage falling to 0.71 at n=5000; clustering leaves the constant-hazard-difference coverage near 0.86 at n=5000, and the multiplier bootstrap leaves the risk-difference-curve coverage near 0.90 (0.86 at the longest horizon). The STE constant hazard difference is a design-weighted summary of a time-varying effect, dependent on the trial structure. We illustrate on the Stanford heart transplant data and provide them in the steCI R package.

Code agents increasingly help developers work with unfamiliar repositories, but every such task depends on a costly prerequisite: bootstrapping the repository into a usable development state. This process requires substantial trial-and-error exploration, yet the resulting knowledge--resolved dependencies, repair strategies--stays trapped in a single conversation, unavailable to future agents. We therefore formulate repository bootstrapping as a reusable startup knowledge problem and introduce BootstrapAgent, a multi-agent framework that distills the heuristics discovered during bootstrap exploration into a persistent, verifiable, agent-consumable .bootstrap contract. Through evidence extraction, structured planning, deterministic Docker-based verification, and trace-driven repair, BootstrapAgent generates a contract covering environment setup, diagnostic checks, minimal verification, and accumulated repair knowledge. We further propose warm repair with clean replay to accelerate iterative debugging without sacrificing cold-start reproducibility, and a delta repair with sanity check to prevent reward hacking. Experiments on three benchmarks show that BootstrapAgent achieves a 92.9% success rate, outperforming the baseline by over 10% while reducing downstream agent token usage by 25.9% and build time by 22.3%. Our code is available at https://github.com/Vossera/BootstrapAgent.

We use tools from geometric statistics to analyze the usual estimation procedure of a template shape. This applies to shapes from landmarks, curves, surfaces, images etc. We demonstrate the asymptotic bias of the template shape estimation using the stratified geometry of the shape space. We give a Taylor expansion of the bias with respect to a parameter sigma describing the measurement error on the data. We propose two bootstrap procedures that quantify the bias and correct it, if needed. They are applicable for any type of shape data. We give a rule of thumb to provide intuition on whether the bias has to be corrected. This exhibits the parameters that control the bias' magnitude. We illustrate our results on simulated and real shape data.

In natural language processing, a recently popular line of work explores how to best report the experimental results of neural networks. One exemplar publication, titled "Show Your Work: Improved Reporting of Experimental Results," advocates for reporting the expected validation effectiveness of the best-tuned model, with respect to the computational budget. In the present work, we critically examine this paper. As far as statistical generalizability is concerned, we find unspoken pitfalls and caveats with this approach. We analytically show that their estimator is biased and uses error-prone assumptions. We find that the estimator favors negative errors and yields poor bootstrapped confidence intervals. We derive an unbiased alternative and bolster our claims with empirical evidence from statistical simulation. Our codebase is at http://github.com/castorini/meanmax.

Reliable uncertainty quantification remains a central challenge in predictive modeling. While Bayesian methods are theoretically appealing, their predictive intervals can exhibit poor frequentist calibration, particularly with small sample sizes or model misspecification. We introduce a practical and broadly applicable Bayesian conformal approach based on the influence-function Bayesian bootstrap (BB) with data-driven tuning of the Dirichlet concentration parameter, α. By efficiently approximating the Bayesian bootstrap predictive distribution via influence functions and calibrating α to optimize empirical coverage or average log-probability, our method constructs prediction intervals and distributions that are both well-calibrated and sharp. Across a range of regression models and data settings, this Bayesian conformal framework consistently yields improved empirical coverage and log-score compared to standard Bayesian posteriors. Our procedure is fast, easy to implement, and offers a flexible approach for distributional calibration in predictive modeling.

We study simplified bootstrap problems for probability distributions on the infinite line and the circle. We show that the rapid convergence of the bootstrap method for problems on the infinite line is related to the fact that the smallest eigenvalue of the positive matrices in the exact solution becomes exponentially small for large matrices, while the moments grow factorially. As a result, the positivity condition is very finely tuned. For problems on the circle we show instead that the entries of the positive matrix of Fourier modes of the distribution depend linearly on the initial data of the recursion, with factorially growing coefficients. By positivity, these matrix elements are bounded in absolute value by one, so the initial data must also be fine-tuned. Additionally, we find that we can largely bypass the semi-definite program (SDP) nature of the problem on a circle by recognizing that these Fourier modes must be asymptotically exponentially small. With a simple ansatz, which we call the shoestring bootstrap, we can efficiently identify an interior point of the set of allowed matrices with much higher precision than conventional SDP bounds permit. We apply this method to solving unitary matrix model integrals by numerically constructing the orthogonal polynomials associated with the circle distribution.

We present an efficient algorithm for simultaneously training sparse generalized linear models across many related problems, which may arise from bootstrapping, cross-validation and nonparametric permutation testing. Our approach leverages the redundancies across problems to obtain significant computational improvements relative to solving the problems sequentially by a conventional algorithm. We demonstrate our fast simultaneous training of generalized linear models (FaSTGLZ) algorithm on a number of real-world datasets, and we run otherwise computationally intensive bootstrapping and permutation test analyses that are typically necessary for obtaining statistically rigorous classification results and meaningful interpretation. Code is freely available at http://liinc.bme.columbia.edu/fastglz.

Monitoring machine learning models once they are deployed is challenging. It is even more challenging to decide when to retrain models in real-case scenarios when labeled data is beyond reach, and monitoring performance metrics becomes unfeasible. In this work, we use non-parametric bootstrapped uncertainty estimates and SHAP values to provide explainable uncertainty estimation as a technique that aims to monitor the deterioration of machine learning models in deployment environments, as well as determine the source of model deterioration when target labels are not available. Classical methods are purely aimed at detecting distribution shift, which can lead to false positives in the sense that the model has not deteriorated despite a shift in the data distribution. To estimate model uncertainty we construct prediction intervals using a novel bootstrap method, which improves upon the work of Kumar & Srivastava (2012). We show that both our model deterioration detection system as well as our uncertainty estimation method achieve better performance than the current state-of-the-art. Finally, we use explainable AI techniques to gain an understanding of the drivers of model deterioration. We release an open source Python package, doubt, which implements our proposed methods, as well as the code used to reproduce our experiments.

Text embeddings for Portuguese have no dedicated benchmark: evaluation rests on translated corpora such as English MS MARCO or on thin multilingual coverage, with native tasks scattered and unconsolidated. We introduce MTEB-PT, a benchmark of 22 native Brazilian-Portuguese tasks across seven categories (classification, multilabel classification, pair classification, semantic textual similarity, clustering, retrieval, and reranking), admitting only data created or found in Portuguese and excluding translations by construction. We evaluate 93 models spanning 23M to 27B parameters: 73 open-weight and 20 closed commercial APIs. Alongside the leaderboard we report a statistical layer for every headline comparison: per-task bootstrap confidence intervals, paired-bootstrap significance, a task- and instance-level discrimination analysis (how sharply each task separates models) adapted from Item Response Theory, and a cross-leaderboard correlation. Three findings stand out. The benchmark cleanly separates about a dozen tiers of models, though the top six are statistically too close to order. An openly licensed, self-hostable model reaches that leading tier, so strong Portuguese embedding quality does not require a commercial API. And a model's rank on the global multilingual leaderboard predicts its Portuguese rank only moderately (Spearman rho = 0.75 over 55 shared models; one model ranks 3rd there and 49th here), so a native benchmark measures something the multilingual boards do not. We release every task, our code, and a public leaderboard, so practitioners can choose Portuguese embedding models on native evidence.

Benchmarks of machine learning models often include many datasets, making evaluation expensive. For efficiency, it is preferable to perform evaluations on small, representative datasets instead. The selection of such subsets typically relies on heuristics and is rarely analyzed for the robustness of the resulting model rankings. We introduce a framework to perform the task of selecting datasets subsets with an evaluation of how different selection strategies preserve the global model rankings. Our framework includes bootstrap aggregation, which provides valid confidence intervals, allowing a principled comparison of selection strategies. We consider clustering, design criteria (A/D-optimality), random baselines, and greedy farthest-first (FAFI). For the latter, we derive upper bounds on selection quality in terms of ranking errors as a function of the number of selected datasets. Empirically, in time series classification (TSC, 112 datasets) and in a supplementary natural language processing benchmark derived from MTEB (57 tasks), several selection strategies improve rank preservation compared with random subsets, including simple FAFI. In contrast, in recommender systems (30 datasets), the improvement of strategies over random selection is small and typically statistically insignificant. For TSC, our best-performing strategy achieves a Spearman correlation of 0.95 with the full benchmark model rankings using only five selected datasets. Additional experiments indicate that the effectiveness of selection approaches depends on both the quality of dataset representations and the scale of the benchmarking regime.

We present Cadence, an error-bounded lossy compressor for numeric time series pairing a 330M-parameter time-series foundation model (Google TimesFM-3) with an adaptive arithmetic coder, guaranteeing |x_t-x_t|leτ on every sample. One negative result constrains the design space: for lossless coding a foundation model is worth nothing, because bits saved are logarithmic in predictor accuracy, Δb=log_2(MAE_{old}/MAE_{new}). So the 1.51times advantage TimesFM-3 holds over a 32-tap linear predictor buys 0.60 bits of 20.28, a median gain of +0.03%. Error-bounded coding escapes this at one point: once a forecast lands inside the band the residual index is zero and the sample nearly free. Cadence contributes: (1) an adaptive range coder with context-modelled binarization, beating xz/zstd on real indices by 9.7% (15/15) and reversing a finding from a general-purpose back end; (2) a determinism result -- predictions are not bit-identical across batch sizes, and no PyTorch configuration repairs this, forcing group size and execution device into the container format; and (3) domain localization on corpora postdating any plausible training cutoff. On 49 EIA-930 balancing-authority demand series (2026) Cadence gains 13.3% over the best of six classical predictors, and 28.3% on 50 MTA ridership series (2026): 21.4% median over 297 series-tolerance pairs, winning all 297. Against downsampling, what time-series databases deploy for retention, its guaranteed worst-case error is 28--56times tighter at equal size. End-to-end, once the context bootstrap is paid for, gains run from 6.8% at six months of hourly data to 15.1% asymptotically. Attempting to falsify the domain claim on SDRBench, theory predicts failure and delivers: -0.8% median, 0 of 27 pairs gaining. Three further negative results and eight retracted claims are reported in full.

Best-of-N inference scaling (drawing N candidate answers from a language model and returning the one a reward model ranks highest) improves accuracy by an amount that varies across models, but predicting that amount in advance currently requires running the procedure end-to-end. Prior work links cheap statistics of a model's sampled outputs and validation-set correctness (how often samples agree, how diverse they are, how confident the model is, and where correct samples appear) to model behavior, but does not isolate which of these form a stable, compact predictor of best-of-N gain. We fit ridge predictors on features computed from a single labeled validation-set sampling pass, use bootstrap-Lasso as a stability analysis of the candidate feature set, and give a concentration analysis with an explicit linear-approximation residual. Across three base-model families, six post-training methods, and math and reasoning task domains, the stability analysis identifies a strict three-feature core spanning prompt-level agreement spread, label-assisted first-correct-sample position, and completion-length variance; a compact ridge predictor built from this core plus an entropy add-on reaches Spearman ρ= 0.90 with actual best-of-N gain under a reward-model verifier. The intended use is labeled validation-set screening of candidate configurations before paying the full reward-model scoring cost.

Learning causal graphs from multivariate time series is a ubiquitous challenge in all application domains dealing with time-dependent systems, such as in Earth sciences, biology, or engineering, to name a few. Recent developments for this causal discovery learning task have shown considerable skill, notably the specific time-series adaptations of the popular conditional independence-based learning framework. However, uncertainty estimation is challenging for conditional independence-based methods. Here, we introduce a novel bootstrap approach designed for time series causal discovery that preserves the temporal dependencies and lag structure. It can be combined with a range of time series causal discovery methods and provides a measure of confidence for the links of the time series graphs. Furthermore, next to confidence estimation, an aggregation, also called bagging, of the bootstrapped graphs by majority voting results in bagged causal discovery methods. In this work, we combine this approach with the state-of-the-art conditional-independence-based algorithm PCMCI+. With extensive numerical experiments we empirically demonstrate that, in addition to providing confidence measures for links, Bagged-PCMCI+ improves in precision and recall as compared to its base algorithm PCMCI+, at the cost of higher computational demands. These statistical performance improvements are especially pronounced in the more challenging settings (short time sample size, large number of variables, high autocorrelation). Our bootstrap approach can also be combined with other time series causal discovery algorithms and can be of considerable use in many real-world applications.

Statistical prediction methods typically require some form of fine-tuning of tuning parameter(s), with K-fold cross-validation as the canonical procedure. For ridge regression there exist numerous procedures, but common for all, including cross-validation, is that one single parameter is chosen for all future predictions. We propose instead to calculate a unique tuning parameter for each individual for which we wish to predict an outcome. This generates an individualized prediction by focusing on the vector of covariates of a specific individual. The focused ridge -- fridge -- procedure is introduced with a two-part contribution: 1) first we define an oracle tuning parameter minimizing the mean squared prediction error of a specific covariate vector, 2) then we propose to estimate this tuning parameter by using plug-in estimates of the regression coefficients and error variance parameter. The procedure is extended to logistic ridge regression by utilizing parametric bootstrap. For high-dimensional data, we propose to use ridge regression with cross-validation as the plug-in estimate, and simulations show that fridge gives smaller average prediction error than ridge with cross-validation for both simulated and real data. We illustrate the new concept for both linear and logistic regression models in two applications of personalized medicine: predicting individual risk and treatment response based on gene expression data. The method is implemented in the R package "fridge".

Using a 100-day symmetric window around the January 2025 U.S. presidential inauguration, non-parametric statistical methods with bootstrap resampling (10,000 iterations) analyze distributional properties and anomalies. Results indicate a statistically significant 3.61\% Indonesian rupiah depreciation post-inauguration, with a large effect size (Cliff's Delta = -0.9224, CI: [-0.9727, -0.8571]). Central tendency shifted markedly, yet volatility remained stable (variance ratio = 0.9061, p = 0.504). Four significant anomalies exhibiting temporal clustering are detected. These findings provide quantitative evidence of political transition effects on emerging market currencies, highlighting implications for monetary policy and currency risk management.

Non-linear interactions during inflation generate non-Gaussianities in the distribution of primordial curvature. In many theories, the physics is scale-invariant, such that the induced three-point function depends solely on a dimensionless shape function S(x,y)sim k^6B_ζ(kx,ky,k). To confront such models with observations, one typically builds specialized estimators for each shape, then applies them to cosmic microwave background datasets at significant computational expense. In this Letter, we take a different approach, directly reconstructing S(x,y) from observations using an efficient logarithmically-binned estimator in primordial-space (motivated by the modal program). Applying this to temperature and polarization maps from Planck, we obtain high-resolution shape measurements across the full (x,y)-plane, including squeezed limits. Our approach is close-to-optimal, highly interpretable, and preserves the information content on (optimally-analyzed) standard templates within approx 10%; moreover, we can use it to assess the scale-dependence of our constraints, finding that Planck is sensitive to approx 6 e-folds of non-Gaussian evolution with a peak sensitivity around 0.1h,Mpc^{-1}. Since we work directly in shape-space, data and theory can be compared in milliseconds. As an example, we perform a search for massive particle exchange using a suite of over 20,000 theoretical templates computed with exact bootstrap methods (for the first time) across a wide range of masses, spins, and sound-speeds; the spin-two analysis yields a maximum significance of 2.6σ. Our approach can be used to probe a wide range of scale-invariant models in orders-of-magnitude less time than with direct estimators, allowing the inflationary paradigm to be explored in new ways.

Language models for program synthesis are usually trained and evaluated on programming competition datasets (MBPP, APPS). However, these datasets are limited in size and quality, while these language models are extremely data hungry. Additionally, the language models have a misaligned program synthesis process compared to humans. While humans iteratively develop code with the help of a compiler, most program synthesis models currently produce code in one go. To solve these issues, we introduce a bootstrapping algorithm for program synthesis, that supports teaching models how to repair. We show that bootstrapping consistently outperforms regular fine-tuning. Compared to other work, our bootstrapped model performs on par with fine-tuned models that are 68\% larger. Notably, bootstrapping with repairing also improves non-repairing performance compared to regular bootstrapping during inference. However, on our models, repairing during inference is likely inferior to simply sampling the same number of solutions. Furthermore, we find that there are issues with the example test cases in the training portion of the APPS dataset that are valuable to the community, as many repairing and reinforcement learning methods rely on them.

Self-alignment is an effective way to reduce the cost of human annotation while ensuring promising model capability. However, most current methods complete the data collection and training steps in a single round, which may overlook the continuously improving ability of self-aligned models. This gives rise to a key query: What if we do multi-time bootstrapping self-alignment? Does this strategy enhance model performance or lead to rapid degradation? In this paper, our pioneering exploration delves into the impact of bootstrapping self-alignment on large language models. Our findings reveal that bootstrapping self-alignment markedly surpasses the single-round approach, by guaranteeing data diversity from in-context learning. To further exploit the capabilities of bootstrapping, we investigate and adjust the training order of data, which yields improved performance of the model. Drawing on these findings, we propose Step-On-Feet Tuning (SOFT) which leverages model's continuously enhanced few-shot ability to boost zero or one-shot performance. Based on easy-to-hard training recipe, we propose SOFT+ which further boost self-alignment's performance. Our experiments demonstrate the efficiency of SOFT (SOFT+) across various classification and generation tasks, highlighting the potential of bootstrapping self-alignment on continually enhancing model alignment performance.

Independence testing is a fundamental and classical statistical problem that has been extensively studied in the batch setting when one fixes the sample size before collecting data. However, practitioners often prefer procedures that adapt to the complexity of a problem at hand instead of setting sample size in advance. Ideally, such procedures should (a) allow stopping earlier on easy tasks (and later on harder tasks), hence making better use of available resources, and (b) continuously monitor the data and efficiently incorporate statistical evidence after collecting new data, while controlling the false alarm rate. It is well known that classical batch tests are not tailored for streaming data settings: valid inference after data peeking requires correcting for multiple testing but such corrections generally result in low power. Following the principle of testing by betting, we design sequential kernelized independence tests (SKITs) that overcome such shortcomings. We exemplify our broad framework using bets inspired by kernelized dependence measures, e.g, the Hilbert-Schmidt independence criterion. Our test is valid under non-i.i.d. time-varying settings, for which there exist no batch tests. We demonstrate the power of our approaches on both simulated and real data.

We report that model quantisation restructures domain-level metacognitive efficiency in LLMs rather than degrading it uniformly. Evaluating Llama-3-8B-Instruct on the same 3,000 questions at Q5_K_M and f16 precision, we find that M-ratio profiles across four knowledge domains are uncorrelated between formats (Spearman rho = 0.00). Arts & Literature moves from worst-monitored (M-ratio = 0.606 at Q5_K_M) to best-monitored (1.542 at f16). Geography moves from well-monitored (1.210) to under-monitored (0.798). However, Type-2 AUROC profiles are perfectly stable across formats (rho = 1.00), localising the restructuring to the M-ratio normalisation rather than the underlying discrimination signal. This finding emerged from a pre-registered attempt to improve metacognition through domain-conditional training. We prescribed confidence-amplification SFT for the diagnosed weak domain, with matched-budget agnostic and wrong-prescription controls. All four confirmatory hypotheses were null (10,000 bootstrap resamples, seed = 42). The training successfully reshaped confidence distributions, doubling the NLP gap in Science from 0.076 to 0.152, but did not improve meta-d' because the diagnostic profile did not transfer across formats. Any system relying on domain-level M-ratio profiles has an unexamined dependency on inference format. Systems using AUROC_2 are safer. We release all code, pre-registrations, and trial-level data.

We present HealthGPT, a powerful Medical Large Vision-Language Model (Med-LVLM) that integrates medical visual comprehension and generation capabilities within a unified autoregressive paradigm. Our bootstrapping philosophy is to progressively adapt heterogeneous comprehension and generation knowledge to pre-trained large language models (LLMs). This is achieved through a novel heterogeneous low-rank adaptation (H-LoRA) technique, which is complemented by a tailored hierarchical visual perception approach and a three-stage learning strategy. To effectively learn the HealthGPT, we devise a comprehensive medical domain-specific comprehension and generation dataset called VL-Health. Experimental results demonstrate exceptional performance and scalability of HealthGPT in medical visual unified tasks. Our project can be accessed at https://github.com/DCDmllm/HealthGPT.

We introduce Bootstrap Your Own Latent (BYOL), a new approach to self-supervised image representation learning. BYOL relies on two neural networks, referred to as online and target networks, that interact and learn from each other. From an augmented view of an image, we train the online network to predict the target network representation of the same image under a different augmented view. At the same time, we update the target network with a slow-moving average of the online network. While state-of-the art methods rely on negative pairs, BYOL achieves a new state of the art without them. BYOL reaches 74.3% top-1 classification accuracy on ImageNet using a linear evaluation with a ResNet-50 architecture and 79.6% with a larger ResNet. We show that BYOL performs on par or better than the current state of the art on both transfer and semi-supervised benchmarks. Our implementation and pretrained models are given on GitHub.

Bootstrap Your Own Latent (BYOL) is a self-supervised learning approach for image representation. From an augmented view of an image, BYOL trains an online network to predict a target network representation of a different augmented view of the same image. Unlike contrastive methods, BYOL does not explicitly use a repulsion term built from negative pairs in its training objective. Yet, it avoids collapse to a trivial, constant representation. Thus, it has recently been hypothesized that batch normalization (BN) is critical to prevent collapse in BYOL. Indeed, BN flows gradients across batch elements, and could leak information about negative views in the batch, which could act as an implicit negative (contrastive) term. However, we experimentally show that replacing BN with a batch-independent normalization scheme (namely, a combination of group normalization and weight standardization) achieves performance comparable to vanilla BYOL (73.9% vs. 74.3% top-1 accuracy under the linear evaluation protocol on ImageNet with ResNet-50). Our finding disproves the hypothesis that the use of batch statistics is a crucial ingredient for BYOL to learn useful representations.

There is a practically unlimited amount of natural language data available. Still, recent work in text comprehension has focused on datasets which are small relative to current computing possibilities. This article is making a case for the community to move to larger data and as a step in that direction it is proposing the BookTest, a new dataset similar to the popular Children's Book Test (CBT), however more than 60 times larger. We show that training on the new data improves the accuracy of our Attention-Sum Reader model on the original CBT test data by a much larger margin than many recent attempts to improve the model architecture. On one version of the dataset our ensemble even exceeds the human baseline provided by Facebook. We then show in our own human study that there is still space for further improvement.

The ROC curve is the major tool for assessing not only the performance but also the fairness properties of a similarity scoring function. In order to draw reliable conclusions based on empirical ROC analysis, accurately evaluating the uncertainty level related to statistical versions of the ROC curves of interest is absolutely necessary, especially for applications with considerable societal impact such as Face Recognition. In this article, we prove asymptotic guarantees for empirical ROC curves of similarity functions as well as for by-product metrics useful to assess fairness. We also explain that, because the false acceptance/rejection rates are of the form of U-statistics in the case of similarity scoring, the naive bootstrap approach may jeopardize the assessment procedure. A dedicated recentering technique must be used instead. Beyond the theoretical analysis carried out, various experiments using real face image datasets provide strong empirical evidence of the practical relevance of the methods promoted here, when applied to several ROC-based measures such as popular fairness metrics.

This paper pursues the insight that large language models (LLMs) trained to generate code can vastly improve the effectiveness of mutation operators applied to programs in genetic programming (GP). Because such LLMs benefit from training data that includes sequential changes and modifications, they can approximate likely changes that humans would make. To highlight the breadth of implications of such evolution through large models (ELM), in the main experiment ELM combined with MAP-Elites generates hundreds of thousands of functional examples of Python programs that output working ambulating robots in the Sodarace domain, which the original LLM had never seen in pre-training. These examples then help to bootstrap training a new conditional language model that can output the right walker for a particular terrain. The ability to bootstrap new models that can output appropriate artifacts for a given context in a domain where zero training data was previously available carries implications for open-endedness, deep learning, and reinforcement learning. These implications are explored here in depth in the hope of inspiring new directions of research now opened up by ELM.

We study numerically the 6D (2,0) superconformal bootstrap using the soft-Actor-Critic (SAC) algorithm as a stochastic optimizer. We focus on the four-point functions of scalar superconformal primaries in the energy-momentum multiplet. Starting from the supergravity limit, we perform searches for adiabatically varied central charges and derive two curves for a collection of 80 CFT data (70 of these data correspond to unprotected long multiplets and 10 to protected short multiplets). We conjecture that the two curves capture the A- and D-series (2,0) theories. Our results are competitive when compared to the existing bounds coming from standard numerical bootstrap methods, and data obtained using the OPE inversion formula. With this paper we are also releasing our Python implementation of the SAC algorithm, BootSTOP. The paper discusses the main functionality features of this package.

We advocate a strategy of bootstrapping Feynman integrals from just knowledge of their singular behavior. This approach is complementary to other bootstrap programs, which exploit non-perturbative constraints such as unitarity, or amplitude-level constraints such as gauge invariance. We begin by studying where a Feynman integral can become singular, and the behavior it exhibits near these singularities. We then characterize the space of functions that we expect the integral to evaluate to, in order to formulate an appropriate ansatz. Finally, we derive constraints on where each singularity can appear in this ansatz, and use information about the expansion of the integral around singular points in order to determine the value of all remaining free coefficients. Throughout, we highlight how constraints that have previously only been derived for integrals with generic masses can be extended to integrals involving particles of equal or vanishing mass. We illustrate the effectiveness of this approach by bootstrapping a number of examples, including the four-point double box with a massive internal loop.

The recently proposed SparseFormer architecture provides an alternative approach to visual understanding by utilizing a significantly lower number of visual tokens via adjusting RoIs, greatly reducing computational costs while still achieving promising performance. However, training SparseFormers from scratch is still expensive, and scaling up the number of parameters can be challenging. In this paper, we propose to bootstrap SparseFormers from ViT-based vision foundation models in a simple and efficient way. Since the majority of SparseFormer blocks are the standard transformer ones, we can inherit weights from large-scale pre-trained vision transformers and freeze them as much as possible. Therefore, we only need to train the SparseFormer-specific lightweight focusing transformer to adjust token RoIs and fine-tune a few early pre-trained blocks to align the final token representation. In such a way, we can bootstrap SparseFormer architectures from various large-scale pre-trained models (e.g., IN-21K pre-trained AugRegs or CLIPs) using a rather smaller amount of training samples (e.g., IN-1K) and without labels or captions within just a few hours. As a result, the bootstrapped unimodal SparseFormer (from AugReg-ViT-L/16-384) can reach 84.9% accuracy on IN-1K with only 49 tokens, and the multimodal SparseFormer from CLIPs also demonstrates notable zero-shot performance with highly reduced computational cost without seeing any caption during the bootstrapping procedure. In addition, CLIP-bootstrapped SparseFormers, which align the output space with language without seeing a word, can serve as efficient vision encoders in multimodal large language models. Code will be publicly available at https://github.com/showlab/sparseformer

We study the conformal bootstrap of 1D CFTs on the straight Maldacena-Wilson line in 4D {cal N}=4 super-Yang-Mills theory. We introduce an improved truncation scheme with an 'OPE tail' approximation and use it to reproduce the 'bootstrability' results of Cavagli\`a et al. for the OPE-coefficients squared of the first three unprotected operators. For example, for the first OPE-coefficient squared at 't Hooft coupling (4pi)^2, linear-functional methods with two sum rules from integrated correlators give the rigorous result 0.294014873 pm 4.88 cdot 10^{-8}, whereas our methods give with machine-precision computations 0.294014228 pm 6.77 cdot 10^{-7}. For our numerical searches, we benchmark the Reinforcement Learning Soft Actor-Critic algorithm against an Interior Point Method algorithm (IPOPT) and comment on the merits of each algorithm.

We introduce a new framework for sample-efficient model evaluation that we call active testing. While approaches like active learning reduce the number of labels needed for model training, existing literature largely ignores the cost of labeling test data, typically unrealistically assuming large test sets for model evaluation. This creates a disconnect to real applications, where test labels are important and just as expensive, e.g. for optimizing hyperparameters. Active testing addresses this by carefully selecting the test points to label, ensuring model evaluation is sample-efficient. To this end, we derive theoretically-grounded and intuitive acquisition strategies that are specifically tailored to the goals of active testing, noting these are distinct to those of active learning. As actively selecting labels introduces a bias; we further show how to remove this bias while reducing the variance of the estimator at the same time. Active testing is easy to implement and can be applied to any supervised machine learning method. We demonstrate its effectiveness on models including WideResNets and Gaussian processes on datasets including Fashion-MNIST and CIFAR-100.

In a recent paper Juodis and Reese (2022) (JR) show that the application of the CD test proposed by Pesaran (2004) to residuals from panels with latent factors results in over-rejection. They propose a randomized test statistic to correct for over-rejection, and add a screening component to achieve power. This paper considers the same problem but from a different perspective, and shows that the standard CD test remains valid if the latent factors are weak in the sense the strength is less than half. In the case where latent factors are strong, we propose a bias-corrected version, CD*, which is shown to be asymptotically standard normal under the null of error cross-sectional independence and have power against network type alternatives. This result is shown to hold for pure latent factor models as well as for panel regression models with latent factors. The case where the errors are serially correlated is also considered. Small sample properties of the CD* test are investigated by Monte Carlo experiments and are shown to have the correct size for strong and weak factors as well as for Gaussian and non-Gaussian errors. In contrast, it is found that JR's test tends to over-reject in the case of panels with non-Gaussian errors, and has low power against spatial network alternatives. In an empirical application, using the CD* test, it is shown that there remains spatial error dependence in a panel data model for real house price changes across 377 Metropolitan Statistical Areas in the U.S., even after the effects of latent factors are filtered out.

Agent harnesses supply planning guidance, organize execution, and check completion. We study how these components affect success, erroneous acceptance, and cost in two Retail experiments and an Airline pilot in τ^2-bench. The primary comparison pairs prewritten task-specific plans (Fixed) with shuffled policy text matched in word count (Sham), isolating the contribution of guidance content. Across 265 matched cells, Fixed improves oracle-verified success by 7.17 percentage points (90\% task-clustered bootstrap interval, 1.15--13.36 points), with gains concentrated in higher-complexity tasks. A read-only terminal verifier rejects 61\% of Retail oracle-invalid episodes while withholding 17\% of correct ones, at less than one cent of additional cost per episode. Which component matters more depends on the loss assigned to erroneous acceptance: at low liability the planning gain dominates; at high liability the verifier's avoided false passes dominate---and a standalone verifier captures nearly all the false-pass benefit of the full planning-plus-verification stack at a fraction of its cost.

We present an approach that uses a multi-camera system to train fine-grained detectors for keypoints that are prone to occlusion, such as the joints of a hand. We call this procedure multiview bootstrapping: first, an initial keypoint detector is used to produce noisy labels in multiple views of the hand. The noisy detections are then triangulated in 3D using multiview geometry or marked as outliers. Finally, the reprojected triangulations are used as new labeled training data to improve the detector. We repeat this process, generating more labeled data in each iteration. We derive a result analytically relating the minimum number of views to achieve target true and false positive rates for a given detector. The method is used to train a hand keypoint detector for single images. The resulting keypoint detector runs in realtime on RGB images and has accuracy comparable to methods that use depth sensors. The single view detector, triangulated over multiple views, enables 3D markerless hand motion capture with complex object interactions.

Accurate blind docking has the potential to lead to new biological breakthroughs, but for this promise to be realized, docking methods must generalize well across the proteome. Existing benchmarks, however, fail to rigorously assess generalizability. Therefore, we develop DockGen, a new benchmark based on the ligand-binding domains of proteins, and we show that existing machine learning-based docking models have very weak generalization abilities. We carefully analyze the scaling laws of ML-based docking and show that, by scaling data and model size, as well as integrating synthetic data strategies, we are able to significantly increase the generalization capacity and set new state-of-the-art performance across benchmarks. Further, we propose Confidence Bootstrapping, a new training paradigm that solely relies on the interaction between diffusion and confidence models and exploits the multi-resolution generation process of diffusion models. We demonstrate that Confidence Bootstrapping significantly improves the ability of ML-based docking methods to dock to unseen protein classes, edging closer to accurate and generalizable blind docking methods.

We present a straightforward statistical test to detect certain violations of the assumption that the data are Independent and Identically Distributed (IID). The specific form of violation considered is common across real-world applications: whether the examples are ordered in the dataset such that almost adjacent examples tend to have more similar feature values (e.g. due to distributional drift, or attractive interactions between datapoints). Based on a k-Nearest Neighbors estimate, our approach can be used to audit any multivariate numeric data as well as other data types (image, text, audio, etc.) that can be numerically represented, perhaps with model embeddings. Compared with existing methods to detect drift or auto-correlation, our approach is both applicable to more types of data and also able to detect a wider variety of IID violations in practice. Code: https://github.com/cleanlab/cleanlab

In this work, we derive sharp non-asymptotic deviation bounds for weighted sums of Dirichlet random variables. These bounds are based on a novel integral representation of the density of a weighted Dirichlet sum. This representation allows us to obtain a Gaussian-like approximation for the sum distribution using geometry and complex analysis methods. Our results generalize similar bounds for the Beta distribution obtained in the seminal paper Alfers and Dinges [1984]. Additionally, our results can be considered a sharp non-asymptotic version of the inverse of Sanov's theorem studied by Ganesh and O'Connell [1999] in the Bayesian setting. Based on these results, we derive new deviation bounds for the Dirichlet process posterior means with application to Bayesian bootstrap. Finally, we apply our estimates to the analysis of the Multinomial Thompson Sampling (TS) algorithm in multi-armed bandits and significantly sharpen the existing regret bounds by making them independent of the size of the arms distribution support.

Behaviour-Driven Development (BDD) suites accumulate step-text duplication whose maintenance cost is established in prior work. Existing detection techniques require running the tests (Binamungu et al., 2018-2023) or are confined to a single organisation (Irshad et al., 2020-2022), leaving a gap: a purely static, paraphrase-robust, step-level detector usable on any repository. We fill the gap with cukereuse, an open-source Python CLI combining exact hashing, Levenshtein ratio, and sentence-transformer embeddings in a layered pipeline, released alongside an empirical corpus of 347 public GitHub repositories, 23,667 parsed .feature files, and 1,113,616 Gherkin steps. The step-weighted exact-duplicate rate is 80.2 %; the median-repository rate is 58.6 % (Spearman rho = 0.51 with size). The top hybrid cluster groups 20.7k occurrences across 2.2k files. Against 1,020 pairs manually labelled by the three authors under a released rubric (inter-annotator Fleiss' kappa = 0.84 on a 60-pair overlap), we report precision, recall, and F1 with bootstrap 95 % CIs under two protocols: the primary rubric and a score-free second-pass relabelling. The strongest honest pair-level number is near-exact at F1 = 0.822 on score-free labels; the primary-rubric semantic F1 = 0.906 is inflated by a stratification artefact that pins recall at 1.000. Lexical baselines (SourcererCC-style, NiCad-style) reach primary F1 = 0.761 and 0.799. The paper also presents a CDN-structured critique of Gherkin (Cognitive Dimensions of Notations); eight of fourteen dimensions are rated problematic or unsupported. The tool, corpus, labelled pairs, rubric, and pipeline are released under permissive licences.

Null Hypothesis Significance Testing is the de facto tool for assessing effectiveness differences between Information Retrieval systems. Researchers use statistical tests to check whether those differences will generalise to online settings or are just due to the samples observed in the laboratory. Much work has been devoted to studying which test is the most reliable when comparing a pair of systems, but most of the IR real-world experiments involve more than two. In the multiple comparisons scenario, testing several systems simultaneously may inflate the errors committed by the tests. In this paper, we use a new approach to assess the reliability of multiple comparison procedures using simulated and real TREC data. Experiments show that Wilcoxon plus the Benjamini-Hochberg correction yields Type I error rates according to the significance level for typical sample sizes while being the best test in terms of statistical power.

Despite being robust to small amounts of label noise, convolutional neural networks trained with stochastic gradient methods have been shown to easily fit random labels. When there are a mixture of correct and mislabelled targets, networks tend to fit the former before the latter. This suggests using a suitable two-component mixture model as an unsupervised generative model of sample loss values during training to allow online estimation of the probability that a sample is mislabelled. Specifically, we propose a beta mixture to estimate this probability and correct the loss by relying on the network prediction (the so-called bootstrapping loss). We further adapt mixup augmentation to drive our approach a step further. Experiments on CIFAR-10/100 and TinyImageNet demonstrate a robustness to label noise that substantially outperforms recent state-of-the-art. Source code is available at https://git.io/fjsvE

The rapid advancement of large-scale vision-language models has showcased remarkable capabilities across various tasks. However, the lack of extensive and high-quality image-text data in medicine has greatly hindered the development of large-scale medical vision-language models. In this work, we present a diagnosis-guided bootstrapping strategy that exploits both image and label information to construct vision-language datasets. Based on the constructed dataset, we developed MedDr, a generalist foundation model for healthcare capable of handling diverse medical data modalities, including radiology, pathology, dermatology, retinography, and endoscopy. Moreover, during inference, we propose a simple but effective retrieval-augmented medical diagnosis strategy, which enhances the model's generalization ability. Extensive experiments on visual question answering, medical report generation, and medical image diagnosis demonstrate the superiority of our method.

Python is one of the fastest-growing programming languages and currently ranks as the top language in many lists, even recently overtaking JavaScript as the top language on GitHub. Given its importance in data science and machine learning, it is imperative to be able to effectively train LLMs to generate good unit test cases for Python code. This motivates the need for a large dataset to provide training and testing data. To date, while other large datasets exist for languages like Java, none publicly exist for Python. Python poses difficult challenges in generating such a dataset, due to its less rigid naming requirements. In this work, we consider two commonly used Python unit testing frameworks: Pytest and unittest. We analyze a large corpus of over 88K open-source GitHub projects utilizing these testing frameworks. Using a carefully designed set of heuristics, we are able to locate over 22 million test methods. We then analyze the test and non-test code and map individual unit tests to the focal method being tested. This provides an explicit traceability link from the test to the tested method. Our pyMethods2Test dataset contains over 2 million of these focal method mappings, as well as the ability to generate useful context for input to LLMs. The pyMethods2Test dataset is publicly available on Zenodo at: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14264518

Faced with distribution shift between training and test set, we wish to detect and quantify the shift, and to correct our classifiers without test set labels. Motivated by medical diagnosis, where diseases (targets) cause symptoms (observations), we focus on label shift, where the label marginal p(y) changes but the conditional p(x| y) does not. We propose Black Box Shift Estimation (BBSE) to estimate the test distribution p(y). BBSE exploits arbitrary black box predictors to reduce dimensionality prior to shift correction. While better predictors give tighter estimates, BBSE works even when predictors are biased, inaccurate, or uncalibrated, so long as their confusion matrices are invertible. We prove BBSE's consistency, bound its error, and introduce a statistical test that uses BBSE to detect shift. We also leverage BBSE to correct classifiers. Experiments demonstrate accurate estimates and improved prediction, even on high-dimensional datasets of natural images.

Scientific coding agents receive equations, boundary conditions, and output requirements in writing, then must assess the programs they revise. Rules to Tools (R2T) supplies prepared executable checks of public scientific requirements. Matched SciCode repair groups share written checks, starting programs, model, and budgets; the tool group receives a callable implementation. Across two task-ID cohorts, complete repair is 26/30 with text and 29/30 with the prepared checks. Three task IDs favor tools, one favors text, and eleven tie. The eight-ID cohort scores 13/16 versus 15/16, with a task-cluster bootstrap 95% interval of [-12.5, 43.75] percentage points for the difference. The larger shared-definition SciCode cohort ties at 13/24 per group. Five development-exposed tasks with alternate starting programs score 3/10 versus 7/10. The tool group favors tasks 17, 77, and 11; initial checks flag task 17 and report no violation for tasks 77 and 11. Task 37 favors text and has no initial reported violation. A fresh source-through-Python arm also reaches 15/16, matching the dedicated command's aggregate. In a matched PDE comparison, detailed text scores 23/24 and checks score 24/24, with 31.2% lower reported model output for checks. Agent-side output savings vary by cohort, while public CPU use rises in both task-ID cohorts. These results measure task-dependent repair outcomes and agent-side costs with prepared checks.

Conventional multi-label classification (MLC) methods assume that all samples are fully labeled and identically distributed. Unfortunately, this assumption is unrealistic in large-scale MLC data that has long-tailed (LT) distribution and partial labels (PL). To address the problem, we introduce a novel task, Partial labeling and Long-Tailed Multi-Label Classification (PLT-MLC), to jointly consider the above two imperfect learning environments. Not surprisingly, we find that most LT-MLC and PL-MLC approaches fail to solve the PLT-MLC, resulting in significant performance degradation on the two proposed PLT-MLC benchmarks. Therefore, we propose an end-to-end learning framework: COrrection rightarrow ModificatIon rightarrow balanCe, abbreviated as \method{}. Our bootstrapping philosophy is to simultaneously correct the missing labels (Correction) with convinced prediction confidence over a class-aware threshold and to learn from these recall labels during training. We next propose a novel multi-focal modifier loss that simultaneously addresses head-tail imbalance and positive-negative imbalance to adaptively modify the attention to different samples (Modification) under the LT class distribution. In addition, we develop a balanced training strategy by distilling the model's learning effect from head and tail samples, and thus design a balanced classifier (Balance) conditioned on the head and tail learning effect to maintain stable performance for all samples. Our experimental study shows that the proposed significantly outperforms general MLC, LT-MLC and PL-MLC methods in terms of effectiveness and robustness on our newly created PLT-MLC datasets.

A Neural Process (NP) estimates a stochastic process implicitly defined with neural networks given a stream of data, rather than pre-specifying priors already known, such as Gaussian processes. An ideal NP would learn everything from data without any inductive biases, but in practice, we often restrict the class of stochastic processes for the ease of estimation. One such restriction is the use of a finite-dimensional latent variable accounting for the uncertainty in the functions drawn from NPs. Some recent works show that this can be improved with more "data-driven" source of uncertainty such as bootstrapping. In this work, we take a different approach based on the martingale posterior, a recently developed alternative to Bayesian inference. For the martingale posterior, instead of specifying prior-likelihood pairs, a predictive distribution for future data is specified. Under specific conditions on the predictive distribution, it can be shown that the uncertainty in the generated future data actually corresponds to the uncertainty of the implicitly defined Bayesian posteriors. Based on this result, instead of assuming any form of the latent variables, we equip a NP with a predictive distribution implicitly defined with neural networks and use the corresponding martingale posteriors as the source of uncertainty. The resulting model, which we name as Martingale Posterior Neural Process (MPNP), is demonstrated to outperform baselines on various tasks.

Minimum Bayes risk (MBR) decoding outputs the hypothesis with the highest expected utility over the model distribution for some utility function. It has been shown to improve accuracy over beam search in conditional language generation problems and especially neural machine translation, in both human and automatic evaluations. However, the standard sampling-based algorithm for MBR is substantially more computationally expensive than beam search, requiring a large number of samples as well as a quadratic number of calls to the utility function, limiting its applicability. We describe an algorithm for MBR which gradually grows the number of samples used to estimate the utility while pruning hypotheses that are unlikely to have the highest utility according to confidence estimates obtained with bootstrap sampling. Our method requires fewer samples and drastically reduces the number of calls to the utility function compared to standard MBR while being statistically indistinguishable in terms of accuracy. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in experiments on three language pairs, using chrF++ and COMET as utility/evaluation metrics.

Putting together an ideal outfit is a process that involves creativity and style intuition. This makes it a particularly difficult task to automate. Existing styling products generally involve human specialists and a highly curated set of fashion items. In this paper, we will describe how we bootstrapped the Complete The Look (CTL) system at Pinterest. This is a technology that aims to learn the subjective task of "style compatibility" in order to recommend complementary items that complete an outfit. In particular, we want to show recommendations from other categories that are compatible with an item of interest. For example, what are some heels that go well with this cocktail dress? We will introduce our outfit dataset of over 1 million outfits and 4 million objects, a subset of which we will make available to the research community, and describe the pipeline used to obtain and refresh this dataset. Furthermore, we will describe how we evaluate this subjective task and compare model performance across multiple training methods. Lastly, we will share our lessons going from experimentation to working prototype, and how to mitigate failure modes in the production environment. Our work represents one of the first examples of an industrial-scale solution for compatibility-based fashion recommendation.

A plethora of sentence embedding models makes it challenging to choose one, especially for domains such as telecom, rich with specialized vocabulary. We evaluate multiple embeddings obtained from publicly available models and their domain-adapted variants, on both point retrieval accuracies as well as their (95\%) confidence intervals. We establish a systematic method to obtain thresholds for similarity scores for different embeddings. We observe that fine-tuning improves mean bootstrapped accuracies as well as tightens confidence intervals. The pre-training combined with fine-tuning makes confidence intervals even tighter. To understand these variations, we analyse and report significant correlations between the distributional overlap between top-K, correct and random sentence similarities with retrieval accuracies and similarity thresholds. Following current literature, we analyze if retrieval accuracy variations can be attributed to isotropy of embeddings. Our conclusions are that isotropy of embeddings (as measured by two independent state-of-the-art isotropy metric definitions) cannot be attributed to better retrieval performance. However, domain adaptation which improves retrieval accuracies also improves isotropy. We establish that domain adaptation moves domain specific embeddings further away from general domain embeddings.

Recent text-to-image generation models have demonstrated incredible success in generating images that faithfully follow input prompts. However, the requirement of using words to describe a desired concept provides limited control over the appearance of the generated concepts. In this work, we address this shortcoming by proposing an approach to enable personalization capabilities in existing text-to-image diffusion models. We propose a novel architecture (BootPIG) that allows a user to provide reference images of an object in order to guide the appearance of a concept in the generated images. The proposed BootPIG architecture makes minimal modifications to a pretrained text-to-image diffusion model and utilizes a separate UNet model to steer the generations toward the desired appearance. We introduce a training procedure that allows us to bootstrap personalization capabilities in the BootPIG architecture using data generated from pretrained text-to-image models, LLM chat agents, and image segmentation models. In contrast to existing methods that require several days of pretraining, the BootPIG architecture can be trained in approximately 1 hour. Experiments on the DreamBooth dataset demonstrate that BootPIG outperforms existing zero-shot methods while being comparable with test-time finetuning approaches. Through a user study, we validate the preference for BootPIG generations over existing methods both in maintaining fidelity to the reference object's appearance and aligning with textual prompts.

We argue that BF theory with SO(d+1,1) gauge group provides a SymTFT ''skeleton'' for building AdS_{d+1}/CFT_d pairs via gluing consistency as the bootstrap principle, loosely analogous to how compact Chern-Simons theory is a TQFT skeleton for rational CFTs. This is a non-perturbative bulk framework for quantum gravity. The bootstrap is formulated as presentation independence of physical amplitudes within a universal, defect-closed BF sewing calculus, which includes Wilson lines, codimension-two monodromy defects, and their junctions. The flat BF connection encodes the conformal geometry of the boundary, while Wilson-line path integrals construct candidate quantum-gravity microstates and charge sectors. When the bootstrapped spectrum has a stress tensor, Ward identities naturally connect it to the B-field, a relation we call generalized simplicity. In large-N, large-gap regimes admitting a gravitational EFT, this motivates the introduction of an effective notion of the B-field. In the Einstein limit, this becomes the ''simplicity'' relation used in spin-foam models. Conventional spin-foam models try to obtain gravity by constraining BF theory. We suggest instead that BF theory is the Platonic sewing skeleton, from which theories are to be bootstrapped. Despite the topological nature of the skeleton, perturbative local bulk fields can emerge via Wilson-towers of multi-trace primaries, reproducing their one-loop determinants. We note that the BF Fourier kernel is a suggestive higher-dimensional analogue of the modular-S structure. Because the bulk gluing principle in itself does not require a boundary description, the framework is conceptually broader than AdS/CFT. We sketch how de Sitter space may fit into this picture, with a natural role for observers. Our approach elevates gluing consistency to a universal bulk principle underlying theories of quantum gravity.

Frontier AI models have achieved remarkable progress, yet recent studies suggest they struggle with compositional reasoning, often performing at or below random chance on established benchmarks. We revisit this problem and show that widely used evaluation metrics systematically underestimate model capability. To address this, we introduce a group matching score that better exploits group structure and reveals substantial hidden capability in both contrastive vision-language models (VLMs) and multimodal large language models (MLLMs). Moreover, simply overfitting to the induced group matchings at test time transfers this hidden capability into higher scores under standard evaluation metrics, closing much of the reported gap. This adjustment enables SigLIP-B16 to surpass all previous results and GPT-4.1 to yield the first result surpassing estimated human performance on Winoground. Building on this insight, we propose Test-Time Matching (TTM), an iterative, self-improving algorithm that further bootstraps model performance without any external supervision. TTM delivers additional, non-trivial improvements: for example, TTM enables SigLIP-B16 to surpass GPT-4.1 on MMVP-VLM, establishing a new state of the art. Importantly, TTM remains broadly effective even on benchmarks without metric-induced effects or group structures, achieving relative gains up to 85.7% on challenging datasets such as WhatsUp. Across 16 dataset variants spanning diverse setups, our experiments demonstrate that TTM consistently improves model performance and advances the frontier of compositional reasoning.

Long context reasoning in large language models (LLMs) has demonstrated enhancement of their cognitive capabilities via chain-of-thought (CoT) inference. Training such models is usually done via reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) in reasoning based problems, like math and programming. However, RLVR is limited by several bottlenecks, such as, lack of dense reward, and inadequate sample efficiency. As a result, it requires significant compute resources in post-training phase. To overcome these limitations, in this work, we propose Semantic Soft Bootstrapping (SSB), a self-distillation technique, in which the same base language model plays the role of both teacher and student, but receives different semantic contexts about the correctness of its outcome at training time. The model is first prompted with a math problem and several rollouts are generated. From them, the correct and most common incorrect response are filtered, and then provided to the model in context to produce a more robust, step-by-step explanation with a verified final answer. This pipeline automatically curates a paired teacher-student training set from raw problem-answer data, without any human intervention. This generation process also produces a sequence of logits, which is what the student model tries to match in the training phase just from the bare question alone. In our experiment, Qwen2.5-3B-Instruct on GSM8K dataset via parameter-efficient fine-tuning. We then tested its accuracy on MATH500, and AIME2024 benchmarks. Our experiments show a jump of 10.6%, and 10% improvements in accuracy, respectively, over group relative policy optimization (GRPO), which is a commonly used RLVR algorithm. Our code is available at https://github.com/purbeshmitra/semantic-soft-bootstrapping, and the model, curated dataset is available at https://huggingface.co/purbeshmitra/semantic-soft-bootstrapping.

A/B tests are typically analyzed via frequentist p-values and confidence intervals; but these inferences are wholly unreliable if users endogenously choose samples sizes by *continuously monitoring* their tests. We define *always valid* p-values and confidence intervals that let users try to take advantage of data as fast as it becomes available, providing valid statistical inference whenever they make their decision. Always valid inference can be interpreted as a natural interface for a sequential hypothesis test, which empowers users to implement a modified test tailored to them. In particular, we show in an appropriate sense that the measures we develop tradeoff sample size and power efficiently, despite a lack of prior knowledge of the user's relative preference between these two goals. We also use always valid p-values to obtain multiple hypothesis testing control in the sequential context. Our methodology has been implemented in a large scale commercial A/B testing platform to analyze hundreds of thousands of experiments to date.

Does microeconomic heterogeneity help to forecast aggregate inflation in a non-stationary environment? We develop a scan test for whether one forecast outperforms another, over an interval with unknown starting point and duration. To exploit any occasional forecasting power that the scan test detects, we design an adaptive machine learning pipeline. We encode the distribution of price changes into a high-dimensional vector, which we combine with a gradient boosted trees algorithm. We then combine this micro forecast with other benchmark forecasts, using an adaptive algorithm that makes use of the micro forecast only when it performs well. We apply the pipeline to UK microdata, with four main results. First, the micro forecast outperforms a univariate benchmark, but only in the volatile period after 2020. Second, the scan test detects periods of micro outperformance, so the micro forecast enters the combined forecast. Third, the combined forecast performs comparably to the univariate benchmark before 2020 and better at every horizon after 2020. Fourth, the value of microdata for the combined forecast materializes after 2020. We conclude that microdata are valuable for forecasting aggregate inflation, but only after large shocks.

Detailed profession-specific system prompts raise token use and estimated cost per response without a consistent accuracy gain. We evaluate Scientific Agents, an open-source corpus of 503 profession-specific AGENTS.md profiles, with Gemini 3.8 Flash via OpenRouter in the Pi agent harness. We compare matched profiles with four controls: a minimal baseline ("You are a helpful assistant"), the profile's opening role sentence, a generic scientific rigor guide, and a profile from an unrelated domain. Across nine text-based science benchmarks (4,531 sampled questions, 100 matched profiles), 4,488 items completed all five conditions after API-error retries, scored with automated, rule-based grading. The average profile-baseline accuracy difference is -0.6 percentage points (95% bootstrap interval [-1.5, +0.2] across fixed tasks), and no benchmark shows a statistically clear improvement. Matched profiles produced 1.5-2.3 times as many output tokens and cost 2.2-4.5 times more per successful call. On 60 tool-using BioMysteryBench bioinformatics problems (three runs each for baseline and profile), mean solve rates were 46.7% with the profile and 56.7% at baseline, a difference of -10.0 percentage points (95% interval [-16.7, -3.3]) driven by more frequent token- and time-limit stops under the profile. Longer prompts had one unexpected operational advantage: on SuperGPQA, frequent provider API drops left the short baseline with a correct first-pass answer on only 54.0% of items, against 71.6% with the profile. Generic and mismatched prompts were about as reliable, so this gain comes from prompt length or formatting rather than domain expertise. For the tested model and tasks, loading full profession profiles by default does not improve accuracy and costs considerably more; whether selective retrieval of profile sections or open-ended scientific tasks would change this remains to be tested.

Vision-Language Models (VLMs) often lose visual grounding during multi-step reasoning: as reasoning chains grow longer, later inference steps rely increasingly on language priors rather than image evidence. We identify a consistent benchmark-level signature associated with this degradation: across 2,510 re-examined samples from four benchmarks, attention entropy over image tokens typically decreases during Round 1 and rises again after image re-injection. However, we find that effective visual re-examination requires two complementary ingredients: image re-injection and targeted self-diagnosis. Without targeted diagnosis, re-examination can even hurt performance, whereas accurate self-diagnosis yields substantial gains -- a swing of several points on key benchmarks, indicating that diagnostic quality is a key factor in whether re-examination helps or hurts in our setting. We present ReGround, a two-stage framework that teaches VLMs to self-diagnose grounding failures and selectively re-examine visual evidence, without architectural modifications or external tools. Through capability bootstrapping, a stronger variant from the same model family provides diagnostic scaffolding only during data construction, while the policy model learns to diagnose autonomously at inference time and retains most of the assisted gains. Experiments on eight benchmarks across two VLM backbones demonstrate consistent gains, especially on visually intensive multi-step reasoning tasks, while incurring only modest inference overhead relative to tool-augmented baselines. Project page: https://sespoir.github.io/reground-page/ . Code: https://github.com/sespoir/ReGround .

Equivariance theory predicts that an architectural symmetry prior reduces sample complexity by a factor of |G|; this is widely cited but rarely measured as a scaling law with controls that separate the prior from its confounds. On a controlled C_n-symmetric task, we report three findings. First, a wrong-group control with identical orbit size and matched compute is worse than no constraint (joint pairwise CI [+0.79, +3.26] excludes zero, robust across estimators); misaligned constraint is actively harmful, not merely unhelpful. Second, an augmentation baseline equipped with test-time orbit averaging matches the equivariant model exactly -- bit-identical per-epoch validation curves across matched cells -- so the architecture-vs-augmentation gap is conditional on asymmetric test-time computation, not unconditional. Third, the relative exchange rate beta_diff = 1.28 is consistent in sign and order of magnitude with the theoretical 1.0 (single-level CI [+0.92, +2.05]); the more conservative two-level bootstrap (seeds x group sizes) widens this to [-0.63, +1.72], including zero, and a finer-N replication on a sqrt(2)-spaced grid is inconclusive (point estimate -0.82). The methodological contributions -- the relative-rate estimator that cancels the shared-difficulty confound, the wrong-group control, and a pre-specified failure taxonomy -- transfer to any inductive bias whose strength can be parameterised. Honest scoping: the primary estimator beta_diff was adopted post-hoc after the initial analysis revealed a positive-slope identifiability problem; the design was never externally pre-registered; and the headline number rests on an OLS slope over seven group sizes on a coarse N grid. This is an exploratory study, not a confirmatory measurement; the wrong-group result is the cleanest finding and the one we report with the most confidence. A registered replication on fresh seeds is future work.

We present a generic framework for creating differentially private versions of any hypothesis test in a black-box way. We analyze the resulting tests analytically and experimentally. Most crucially, we show good practical performance for small data sets, showing that at epsilon = 1 we only need 5-6 times as much data as in the fully public setting. We compare our work to the one existing framework of this type, as well as to several individually-designed private hypothesis tests. Our framework is higher power than other generic solutions and at least competitive with (and often better than) individually-designed tests.

Parameter inference, i.e. inferring the posterior distribution of the parameters of a statistical model given some data, is a central problem to many scientific disciplines. Generative models can be used as an alternative to Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods for conducting posterior inference, both in likelihood-based and simulation-based problems. However, assessing the accuracy of posteriors encoded in generative models is not straightforward. In this paper, we introduce `Tests of Accuracy with Random Points' (TARP) coverage testing as a method to estimate coverage probabilities of generative posterior estimators. Our method differs from previously-existing coverage-based methods, which require posterior evaluations. We prove that our approach is necessary and sufficient to show that a posterior estimator is accurate. We demonstrate the method on a variety of synthetic examples, and show that TARP can be used to test the results of posterior inference analyses in high-dimensional spaces. We also show that our method can detect inaccurate inferences in cases where existing methods fail.

We find that vision-language models are sensitive to a specific semantically irrelevant change: the order in which the image and question are presented. Across three models and three benchmarks, image first prompting consistently outperforms question-first prompting, revealing a repeatable modality order failure. We use this gap to design an order-consistent test-time training method. Our method substantially closes the modality-order gap across all evaluated settings. Surprisingly, it also yields consistent improvements in the stronger image-first branch over the baseline, hence bootstrapping both orderings toward mutual consistency. Activation patching localizes the ordering failure to a narrow mid-network region where representations diverge sharply between prompt orders. We find that the test-time training method repairs this misalignment across layers. Together, our results identify modality-order sensitivity as a circuit-level failure in VLMs and demonstrate that simple, asymmetric test-time adaptation can effectively mitigate it and even improve performance over the baseline.

We present a simple and effective way to estimate the batch-norm statistics during test time, to fast adapt a source model to target test samples. Known as Test-Time Adaptation, most prior works studying this task follow two assumptions in their evaluation where (1) test samples come together as a large batch, and (2) all from a single test distribution. However, in practice, these two assumptions may not stand, the reasons for which we propose two new evaluation settings where batch sizes are arbitrary and multiple distributions are considered. Unlike the previous methods that require a large batch of single distribution during test time to calculate stable batch-norm statistics, our method avoid any dependency on large online batches and is able to estimate accurate batch-norm statistics with a single sample. The proposed method significantly outperforms the State-Of-The-Art in the newly proposed settings in Test-Time Adaptation Task, and also demonstrates improvements in various other settings such as Source-Free Unsupervised Domain Adaptation and Zero-Shot Classification.

Despite the great interest in the bandit problem, designing efficient algorithms for complex models remains challenging, as there is typically no analytical way to quantify uncertainty. In this paper, we propose Multiplier Bootstrap-based Exploration (MBE), a novel exploration strategy that is applicable to any reward model amenable to weighted loss minimization. We prove both instance-dependent and instance-independent rate-optimal regret bounds for MBE in sub-Gaussian multi-armed bandits. With extensive simulation and real data experiments, we show the generality and adaptivity of MBE.

Evaluations of LLM systems routinely average over small prompt sets and report models as a ranked table. We ask how much confidence such a table deserves, using LLM-based prompt-structure inference as the case study: eight open model variants across five families and 8B to 675B parameters, caching disabled, 293 raw intermediate representations persisted. The measured phenomenon is unstable to begin with. Identical calls do not reliably recover identical structure, with mean node-set Jaccard from 0.39 to 0.96 and 72% of prompt-model cells never node-set-perfect. Auditing the evaluation weakens its conclusions further, and this is our main contribution. Under a joint cluster bootstrap over prompts, only the bottom of the ranking is firm: the two least reproducible models hold rank in 99% and 86% of replicates, the middle four in 27% to 48%, and the top two in 68% each, so the table identifies the worst model reliably but does not reliably identify the best. Two equally defensible rules for merging repeated campaigns change four of eight rows and move the study-wide headline by 7 percentage points. Checking the inferred structure against ground-truth annotations shows reproducibility cannot be read as accuracy. And four of the eight endpoints were withdrawn within ten weeks of measurement, so the study as specified can no longer be run. Small-sample LLM evaluations can therefore look far more definitive than their evidence supports. We recommend reporting rank stability, per-cell provenance, executed sensitivity comparisons, raw per-run outputs, and a measurement date alongside any ranking.

Spectral clustering is a leading clustering method. Two of its major shortcomings are the disjoint optimization process and the limited representation capacity. To address these issues, we propose a deep spectral clustering model (named BootSC), which jointly learns all stages of spectral clustering -- affinity matrix construction, spectral embedding, and k-means clustering -- using a single network in an end-to-end manner. BootSC leverages effective and efficient optimal-transport-derived supervision to bootstrap the affinity matrix and the cluster assignment matrix. Moreover, a semantically-consistent orthogonal re-parameterization technique is introduced to orthogonalize spectral embeddings, significantly enhancing the discrimination capability. Experimental results indicate that BootSC achieves state-of-the-art clustering performance. For example, it accomplishes a notable 16\% NMI improvement over the runner-up method on the challenging ImageNet-Dogs dataset. Our code is available at https://github.com/spdj2271/BootSC.

Recent advances in automated test generation utilises language models to produce unit tests. While effective, language models tend to generate many incorrect tests with respect to both syntax and semantics. Although such incorrect tests can be easily detected and discarded, they constitute a "missed opportunity" -- if fixed, they are often valuable as they directly add testing value (they effectively target the underlying program logic to be tested) and indirectly form good seeds for generating additional tests. To this end, we propose a simple technique for repairing some of these incorrect tests through a combination of rule-based static analysis and re-prompting. We evaluate this simple approach, named YATE, on a set of 6 open-source projects and show that it can effectively produce tests that cover on average 32.06% more lines and kill 21.77% more mutants than a plain LLM-based method. We also compare YATE with four other LLM-based methods, namely HITS, SYMPROMPT, TESTSPARK and COVERUP and show that it produces tests that cover substantially more code. YATE achieves 22% higher line coverage, 20% higher branch coverage and kill 20% more mutants at a comparable cost (number of calls to LLMs).

Testing is an integral part of the software development process. Yet, writing tests is time-consuming and therefore often neglected. Classical test generation tools such as EvoSuite generate behavioral test suites by optimizing for coverage, but tend to produce tests that are hard to understand. Language models trained on code can generate code that is highly similar to that written by humans, but current models are trained to generate each file separately, as is standard practice in natural language processing, and thus fail to consider the code-under-test context when producing a test file. In this work, we propose the Aligned Code And Tests Language Model (CAT-LM), a GPT-style language model with 2.7 Billion parameters, trained on a corpus of Python and Java projects. We utilize a novel pretraining signal that explicitly considers the mapping between code and test files when available. We also drastically increase the maximum sequence length of inputs to 8,192 tokens, 4x more than typical code generation models, to ensure that the code context is available to the model when generating test code. We analyze its usefulness for realistic applications, showing that sampling with filtering (e.g., by compilability, coverage) allows it to efficiently produce tests that achieve coverage similar to ones written by developers while resembling their writing style. By utilizing the code context, CAT-LM generates more valid tests than even much larger language models trained with more data (CodeGen 16B and StarCoder) and substantially outperforms a recent test-specific model (TeCo) at test completion. Overall, our work highlights the importance of incorporating software-specific insights when training language models for code and paves the way to more powerful automated test generation.

Knowledge benchmarks for LLMs face three issues: scaling-driven designs that do not operationalize disciplinary representativeness; flat-payment annotation that permits lazy consensus; and unaudited ranking instability under bounded test budgets. We introduce KINA, an 899-item benchmark across 261 fine-grained disciplines, with two formal results. First, we cast representativeness as a coverage-style objective over expert-elicited anchors and operationalize disciplinary representativeness through a proxy, yielding a (1-1/e) greedy approximation (Proposition 1); the guarantee applies to the proxy, not to population representativeness. Second, we prove a bonus-on-bar tournament weakly FOSD-dominates flat payment in released-review quality, with incentive-compatibility threshold B > Delta C / Delta p_min (Theorem 1). Evaluating 42 models from 13 labs, the top model, Gemini-3.1-Pro-Preview, reaches 53.17%, followed by Claude-Opus-4.6 at 49.92% and GPT-5.4 at 48.55%, leaving substantial headroom below saturation. The full leaderboard shows a tiered structure rather than a smooth total order: a small frontier tier lies above 48%, a dense strong-model tier spans roughly 38-45%, and low-performing models remain only modestly above the 10% chance baseline. Tool augmentation adds up to 5.17 points across the five tool-use evaluations, with gains varying substantially across models. We report bootstrap ranking-stability statistics to make bounded-budget variance explicit and to discourage over-interpretation of adjacent ranks.

Leveraging nearest neighbor retrieval for self-supervised representation learning has proven beneficial with object-centric images. However, this approach faces limitations when applied to scene-centric datasets, where multiple objects within an image are only implicitly captured in the global representation. Such global bootstrapping can lead to undesirable entanglement of object representations. Furthermore, even object-centric datasets stand to benefit from a finer-grained bootstrapping approach. In response to these challenges, we introduce a novel Cross-Image Object-Level Bootstrapping method tailored to enhance dense visual representation learning. By employing object-level nearest neighbor bootstrapping throughout the training, CrIBo emerges as a notably strong and adequate candidate for in-context learning, leveraging nearest neighbor retrieval at test time. CrIBo shows state-of-the-art performance on the latter task while being highly competitive in more standard downstream segmentation tasks. Our code and pretrained models are publicly available at https://github.com/tileb1/CrIBo.

SlopBench asks which models produce the stiff, repetitive prose readers call AI slop, a question detectors leave open once they have classified a text as machine-written. We evaluated eighteen models on 112 hand-written tasks in email, social posts, essays, and workplace chat, sampling each model on each task up to ten times, for 19,928 outputs in all. SlopBench scores four surface behaviors a reader can check by hand: length against the word band each task specifies, opener repetition across a model's own samples of one task, and paragraph rhythm and fixed lexical constructions against pre-ChatGPT human corpora. Under one fixed weighting, Kimi K2.6 scores lowest at 21.1 and Mistral Large highest at 40.6. Across 500 random reweightings Kimi has the lowest score in 58 percent of draws and Mistral the highest in 97 percent. No draw preserves the full order of the eighteen, and a scenario bootstrap leaves exactly one of those ranks unambiguous. We ran three further checks on that middle order: a crowd arena, an AI detector, and lexical diversity. None of them confirmed the order. We therefore report the four behaviors separately and treat the composite as one weighting among many, and we release the prompts, outputs, reference statistics, and scoring code.

While previous distribution shift detection approaches can identify if a shift has occurred, these approaches cannot localize which specific features have caused a distribution shift -- a critical step in diagnosing or fixing any underlying issue. For example, in military sensor networks, users will want to detect when one or more of the sensors has been compromised, and critically, they will want to know which specific sensors might be compromised. Thus, we first define a formalization of this problem as multiple conditional distribution hypothesis tests and propose both non-parametric and parametric statistical tests. For both efficiency and flexibility, we then propose to use a test statistic based on the density model score function (i.e. gradient with respect to the input) -- which can easily compute test statistics for all dimensions in a single forward and backward pass. Any density model could be used for computing the necessary statistics including deep density models such as normalizing flows or autoregressive models. We additionally develop methods for identifying when and where a shift occurs in multivariate time-series data and show results for multiple scenarios using realistic attack models on both simulated and real world data.

We consider the problem of learning a target function corresponding to a single hidden layer neural network, with a quadratic activation function after the first layer, and random weights. We consider the asymptotic limit where the input dimension and the network width are proportionally large. Recent work [Cui & al '23] established that linear regression provides Bayes-optimal test error to learn such a function when the number of available samples is only linear in the dimension. That work stressed the open challenge of theoretically analyzing the optimal test error in the more interesting regime where the number of samples is quadratic in the dimension. In this paper, we solve this challenge for quadratic activations and derive a closed-form expression for the Bayes-optimal test error. We also provide an algorithm, that we call GAMP-RIE, which combines approximate message passing with rotationally invariant matrix denoising, and that asymptotically achieves the optimal performance. Technically, our result is enabled by establishing a link with recent works on optimal denoising of extensive-rank matrices and on the ellipsoid fitting problem. We further show empirically that, in the absence of noise, randomly-initialized gradient descent seems to sample the space of weights, leading to zero training loss, and averaging over initialization leads to a test error equal to the Bayes-optimal one.

Bootstrapping from pre-trained language models has been proven to be an efficient approach for building vision-language models (VLM) for tasks such as image captioning or visual question answering. However, outputs of these models rarely align with user's rationales for specific answers. In order to improve this alignment and reinforce commonsense reasons, we propose a tuning paradigm based on human interactions with machine generated data. Our ILLUME executes the following loop: Given an image-question-answer prompt, the VLM samples multiple candidate rationales, and a human critic provides minimal feedback via preference selection, used for fine-tuning. This loop increases the training data and gradually carves out the VLM's rationalization capabilities that are aligned with human intend. Our exhaustive experiments demonstrate that ILLUME is competitive with standard supervised fine-tuning while using significantly fewer training data and only requiring minimal feedback.

How can we use AI to discover a new state of the art for a scientific problem? Prior work in test-time scaling, such as AlphaEvolve, performs search by prompting a frozen LLM. We perform reinforcement learning at test time, so the LLM can continue to train, but now with experience specific to the test problem. This form of continual learning is quite special, because its goal is to produce one great solution rather than many good ones on average, and to solve this very problem rather than generalize to other problems. Therefore, our learning objective and search subroutine are designed to prioritize the most promising solutions. We call this method Test-Time Training to Discover (TTT-Discover). Following prior work, we focus on problems with continuous rewards. We report results for every problem we attempted, across mathematics, GPU kernel engineering, algorithm design, and biology. TTT-Discover sets the new state of the art in almost all of them: (i) Erdős' minimum overlap problem and an autocorrelation inequality; (ii) a GPUMode kernel competition (up to 2times faster than prior art); (iii) past AtCoder algorithm competitions; and (iv) denoising problem in single-cell analysis. Our solutions are reviewed by experts or the organizers. All our results are achieved with an open model, OpenAI gpt-oss-120b, and can be reproduced with our publicly available code, in contrast to previous best results that required closed frontier models. Our test-time training runs are performed using Tinker, an API by Thinking Machines, with a cost of only a few hundred dollars per problem.

HakemBench is a Turkish benchmark of typed decisions, in which the model under test reads a text, a question and a fixed set of options and returns a probability for every option. Version 1.0 is released fully open under CC BY 4.0, with 2,346 items and 4,275 choice, yes/no and score questions in seven tracks (fact-check triage, education, guardrails, legal routing, moderation, spam and phishing, and customer support). One harness scores decision quality (macro F1), calibration (from the normalised Brier score) and selective automation (from the normalised area under the generalised risk-coverage curve), combines them by a geometric mean and reports intervals from 2,000 bootstrap draws; probes for option order, paraphrase, English translation and substituted names are reported alongside. Most gold labels come from blind passes of one AI model family compared with the votes of a panel of large language models from other model families; they are not human-verified. On a board of 16 rows the leader scores a composite of 0.888 and the lab's own model is 7th at 0.660. Its numbers are not blind. Earlier runs' test results shaped its training data, so its guardrail, moderation and customer support numbers are flagged; with every model scored on the other four tracks only, its composite is 0.678, 6th of 16.

We build four new test sets for the Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) and evaluate the ability of question-answering systems to generalize to new data. Our first test set is from the original Wikipedia domain and measures the extent to which existing systems overfit the original test set. Despite several years of heavy test set re-use, we find no evidence of adaptive overfitting. The remaining three test sets are constructed from New York Times articles, Reddit posts, and Amazon product reviews and measure robustness to natural distribution shifts. Across a broad range of models, we observe average performance drops of 3.8, 14.0, and 17.4 F1 points, respectively. In contrast, a strong human baseline matches or exceeds the performance of SQuAD models on the original domain and exhibits little to no drop in new domains. Taken together, our results confirm the surprising resilience of the holdout method and emphasize the need to move towards evaluation metrics that incorporate robustness to natural distribution shifts.

Recent progress in weakly supervised object detection is featured by a combination of multiple instance detection networks (MIDN) and ordinal online refinement. However, with only image-level annotation, MIDN inevitably assigns high scores to some unexpected region proposals when generating pseudo labels. These inaccurate high-scoring region proposals will mislead the training of subsequent refinement modules and thus hamper the detection performance. In this work, we explore how to ameliorate the quality of pseudo-labeling in MIDN. Formally, we devise Cyclic-Bootstrap Labeling (CBL), a novel weakly supervised object detection pipeline, which optimizes MIDN with rank information from a reliable teacher network. Specifically, we obtain this teacher network by introducing a weighted exponential moving average strategy to take advantage of various refinement modules. A novel class-specific ranking distillation algorithm is proposed to leverage the output of weighted ensembled teacher network for distilling MIDN with rank information. As a result, MIDN is guided to assign higher scores to accurate proposals among their neighboring ones, thus benefiting the subsequent pseudo labeling. Extensive experiments on the prevalent PASCAL VOC 2007 \& 2012 and COCO datasets demonstrate the superior performance of our CBL framework. Code will be available at https://github.com/Yinyf0804/WSOD-CBL/.