Daily Papers

Long-horizon tool-use reinforcement learning learns from outcome verification, but trajectory-level advantages are broadcast over reasoning, API, and answer tokens. Direct self-distillation can supply a denser signal, but in our experiments it can also destroy tool use by rehearsing teacher behavior without identifying which actions the verifier rewards. We introduce Sibling-Guided Credit Distillation (SGCD), which uses distillation for bounded credit weighting rather than as a competing actor loss. Dynamic sampling produces mixed successful and failed sibling rollouts; an external LLM summarizes their contrast into a training-only credit reference; and detached teacher/student divergence reshapes GRPO token advantages. The deployed student receives only the clean task prompt. Across AppWorld and tau^3-airline, SGCD reports higher held-out point estimates than GRPO-family comparators: AppWorld TGC improves from 42.9 to 45.6 on test_normal and from 24.7 to 27.0 on test_challenge, and tau^3-airline held-out evaluator score improves from 0.583 to 0.602. These results support a narrow design rule for long-horizon tool-use agents: use distillation to guide credit assignment while keeping policy gradient in charge of the actor update.

Long-horizon video editing agents receive final-product feedback only after many interdependent decisions. Yet editing quality is subjective, admits multiple valid solutions, and is not meaningfully calibrated across heterogeneous requests, making a global scalar objective both ambiguous and temporally uninformative. Our key observation is that fixing the request, materials, and production constraints converts this subjective objective into an ordinal comparison among directly comparable alternatives. We introduce Group-Relative Preference Backpropagation (GRPB), which transforms same-task rankings into zero-sum advantages and redistributes them as bounded credit over semantic editing segments. A lagged allocator and guarded transmission prevent current judgments or unreliable estimates from directly shaping the same rollout group. We manually construct a project-disjoint, horizon-stratified suite of realistic editing tasks for training and controlled evaluation. Across matched baselines, credit interventions, external benchmarking, and blinded human evaluation, GRPB improves both editing behavior and rendered products. The resulting 9B Crayotter model surpasses several proprietary systems on AgenticVBench, supporting task-local preference reduction as a practical approach to learning from subjective, delayed outcomes. Code and all supporting materials are publicly available at https://github.com/idwts/Crayotter.

Converting verifier outcomes into useful policy updates and partial progress into complete task resolution is crucial for terminal agents. We present Terminal-RSI, which alternates Recursive Self-Rewrite (RSR) of verified trajectories with critic-inheriting Recursive Policy-Refine (RPR). We formulate Turn-Boundary Skip-Observation GAE (TB-GAE) to retain token-specific baselines while applying decay across interaction turns. Family Dense Reward (FDR) calibrates semantic progress across task families; Success-Prioritized Reward (SPR) separates strict success from bounded partial credit. A Warm-up Critic Model, recursive critic handoff, and stage-specific learning rates coordinate the two refinement phases. The five-stage sequence from Qwen3.8-27B base model through RSR-1, RPR-1, RSR-2, and RPR-2 yields Terminal-RSI-27B: 19.84% on Terminal-Bench 4.0, 86.52% on Terminal-Bench 2.1, 16.95% on Terminal-Bench 3.0, and 79.00% on Terminal-Bench Hard. On LHTB, process reward rises from 0.21 to 0.37 and strict completion from 0/46 to 5/46; SWR100 success doubles from 3.00% to 6.00%. By recursively coupling verified trajectory rewriting with critic-inheriting policy refinement, each retained stage consolidates discovered behaviors and progressively advances the agent from partial local repairs to strict terminal verification.

Off-policy data in reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) can arise from asynchronous generation, rollout-training mismatch, and response reuse. Token-wise importance weighting avoids multiplying likelihood ratios across a response but generally biases policy gradients. We prove that, under coverage and local expressiveness conditions, full future KL credit makes the exact proximal optimizer the update's unique stationary policy, even for mixtures of older policies, without full-response weights or a fitted critic. We further establish convergence of continuous-time tabular population updates under persistent coverage and time-varying behavior policies, and a finite-sample reward guarantee for linear logistic models under additional assumptions. These results motivate Proximal KL, a practical off-policy RLVR method that separates the proximal reference from the sampling policy and replaces PPO clipping with bounded future KL credit. Across all seven matched off-policy comparisons on Qwen3-1.7B and Qwen3-4B, spanning two learning rates, response reuse, and rollout staleness, Proximal KL outperforms GRPO in micro-averaged accuracy over eight math benchmarks by up to 2.58%. A separate on-policy comparison yields comparable aggregate accuracy. In periodic-refresh experiments, Proximal KL avoids the collapses observed in PG and CISPO, exceeds GRPO's training accuracy, and reaches higher accuracy in fewer policy updates. Ablations show that token-wise correction outperforms sequence-level and unweighted controls. With token-wise correction retained, future KL feedback reduces sensitivity to the tested baseline perturbation relative to PPO clipping. A finite future horizon improves AIME24 mean@16 and pass@16 over the full tail, while fixed-policy measurements show that truncation reduces correction variance over the tested horizons.

Self-improving LLM agents can adapt a credit pipeline to a changed rule, but an agent that rewrites itself destroys the artefact a supervisor reviews: a named change, a recorded test, an approval. We argue that self-evolution is reviewable only if it is confined to the runtime harness (instruction text, tool-call logic and primitive composition) while model weights stay fixed, so that every adaptation is a diff with a cause and a test attached. We give a dual-loop engine built on that bound, with one admission gate that writes a hash-chained record before deployment, and we measure the gate in simulation, with a simulated agent and a seeded-search proposer rather than language models. Across three families of supervisory re-interpretation at three severities, 10 seeds each, the gated loop admitted 144 of 7,449 candidate changes, none of which worsened error on held-out history, and restored the false-positive rate to the oracle level without raising missed flags in every low- and mid-severity cell. With the gate replaced by the check an unbounded system applies (fewer errors visible in recent traces), the same loops admitted 309 harmful changes and left missed flags above 10% in 49 of 90 runs: false positives fell because the screen was loosened. Evaluated on pre-shift labels, the gate rejected every candidate, so a re-interpretation must be encoded as a rule that relabels history. Parametric and scope shifts were repaired locally, a structural one only by primitive replacement; at the highest structural severity the gate's fixed tolerance blocked the correct replacement in half the seeds. We map the mechanisms to the EU AI Act's provisions for high-risk credit scoring and note that the April 2026 US model-risk guidance excludes agentic AI from its scope.

Reinforcement learning has become a central component of large language model (LLM) post-training, yet token-level credit lacks a generally accepted mathematical definition, leaving its relationship to commonly used training signals unclear. We formulate three regularity conditions, namely Completeness, Prefix Consistency, and Neutrality, and prove that they uniquely determine token-level credit. This characterization provides a unified basis for explaining phenomena across existing algorithms and guides the development of an improved actor-critic training procedure. Through this lens, an ideal teacher in On-Policy Distillation (OPD) acts as an implicit critic, yielding an expected policy gradient proportional to that induced by token-level credit. Response-level REINFORCE Leave-One-Out (RLOO) signals match the expected policy-gradient contribution of token-level credit despite their coarser granularity. We further establish approximate credit sparsity under bounded outcome rewards and show how intermediate critic errors in Generalized Advantage Estimation (GAE) can become comparable to the underlying credit. These motivate Policy Aligned Critic Training (PACT), which adopts an Actor-then-Critic update order to apply importance sampling correction to critic training and better align the critic with the updated policy. In agentic mathematical reasoning, PACT achieves 72.87% average accuracy across four benchmarks, outperforming GRPO and PPO by 8.80 and 13.16 percentage points, respectively. On SWE-bench Verified, PACT achieves a pass rate of 67.4%, outperforming PPO, GRPO, and SAO by 2.4, 2.0, and 3.8 percentage points, respectively.

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards scales multimodal reasoning, but an outcome reward says how much a trajectory is worth, not how that value should be spread over the decisions that produced it. We introduce Residual Visual Credit Optimization (RVCO), which treats token credit as a conserved routing problem. A controlled visual intervention yields a per-token evidence response; robust within-trajectory coordinates remove incidental scale; and a budgeted entropic router distributes a fixed amount of sequence utility according to perceptual dependence. A residual support path guarantees positive credit at every valid position, and an analytic correction restores the prescribed credit mass exactly. The resulting field is selective, bounded, full-support, and invariant to response-local score shifts, and recovers hard token selection as a limiting case. Across four model families and seven reasoning benchmarks, RVCO improves accuracy over strong RLVR baselines while maintaining late-stage optimization stability, corruption robustness, and competitive training cost. Rewards, rollouts, and the group-relative advantage estimator are unchanged; only the geometry of token-level credit differs.

We propose a structural default model for portfolio-wide valuation adjustments (xVAs) and represent it as a system of coupled backward stochastic differential equations. The framework is divided into four layers, each capturing a key component: (i) clean values, (ii) initial margin and Collateral Valuation Adjustment (ColVA), (iii) Credit/Debit Valuation Adjustments (CVA/DVA) together with Margin Valuation Adjustment (MVA), and (iv) Funding Valuation Adjustment (FVA). Because these layers depend on one another through collateral and default effects, a naive Monte Carlo approach would require deeply nested simulations, making the problem computationally intractable. To address this challenge, we use an iterative deep BSDE approach, handling each layer sequentially so that earlier outputs serve as inputs to the subsequent layers. Initial margin is computed via deep quantile regression to reflect margin requirements over the Margin Period of Risk. We also adopt a change-of-measure method that highlights rare but significant defaults of the bank or counterparty, ensuring that these events are accurately captured in the training process. We further extend Han and Long's (2020) a posteriori error analysis to BSDEs on bounded domains. Due to the random exit from the domain, we obtain an order of convergence of O(h^{1/4-epsilon}) rather than the usual O(h^{1/2}). Numerical experiments illustrate that this method drastically reduces computational demands and successfully scales to high-dimensional, non-symmetric portfolios. The results confirm its effectiveness and accuracy, offering a practical alternative to nested Monte Carlo simulations in multi-counterparty xVA analyses.

Reinforcement learning is crucial for aligning large language models to perform complex reasoning tasks. However, current algorithms such as Group Relative Policy Optimization suffer from coarse grained, sequence level credit assignment, which severely struggles to isolate pivotal reasoning steps within long Chain of Thought generations. Furthermore, the standard unbounded Kullback Leibler divergence penalty induces severe gradient instability and mode seeking conservatism, ultimately stifling the discovery of novel reasoning trajectories. To overcome these limitations, we introduce Distribution Guided Policy Optimization, a novel critic free reinforcement learning framework that reinterprets distribution deviation as a guiding signal rather than a rigid penalty. DGPO replaces the volatile KL divergence with the bounded Hellinger distance to safely quantify token level exploration without the risk of gradient explosion. To effectively distinguish genuine reasoning breakthroughs from hallucinatory noise, we propose an entropy gating mechanism that scales this deviation by the policy`s epistemic uncertainty. By dynamically redistributing the coarse sequence-level advantage to individual tokens based on these gated scores, DGPO heavily incentivizes critical exploratory steps while suppressing unwarranted, low-entropy deviations. Consequently, DGPO completely eliminates the traditional token-level KL penalty and achieves fine-grained credit reallocation without the computational overhead of an additional value network. Extensive empirical evaluations demonstrate that DGPO sets a new state-of-the-art for critic free alignment. Notably, on the Qwen2.5-32B architecture, DGPO achieves 60.0% Avg@32 accuracy and 46.0% Avg@32 accuracy on the challenging AIME2024 and AIME2025 benchmarks respectively, substantially outperforming competitive baselines like DAPO.

Long-horizon agents rely on memory mechanisms to compress interaction history, but optimizing memory writing faces a distinct credit assignment challenge: a memory update may be rewarded or penalized due to downstream tool failures, noisy observations, or reasoning errors rather than its own contribution. This causally entangled credit can lead agents to discard useful evidence or preserve irrelevant information. We propose HiMPO, a Hindsight-Informed Memory Policy Optimization framework for assigning less-entangled credit to memory-writing actions in long-horizon agents. HiMPO first estimates the local utility of a memory update by comparing the task-relevant information recoverable from the previous and updated memories under the same pre-write state. It then uses hindsight relevance as a bounded retrospective filter that attenuates memory credit when local utility is not supported by the target outcome. The resulting memory-specific advantage is applied only to memory tokens, while trajectory-level rewards optimize the rest of the agent behavior. Across judge-based open-domain tasks and objective compressive-memory QA, HiMPO improves over strong memory-based and RL-based baselines while preserving compressed-context efficiency. Controlled interventions further show that HiMPO reduces blame leakage from tool-induced errors and improves attribution fidelity of memory updates.

Agentic reinforcement learning requires assigning credit to environment-facing actions such as searches, clicks, edits, navigation commands, and object interactions. Standard GRPO uses the final verifier outcome as a uniform advantage over all action tokens. This outcome signal is useful but structurally incomplete: it punishes useful exploration in failed rollouts and reinforces redundant or regressive actions in successful rollouts. We propose TRIAGE, a role-typed credit assignment framework that adds a semantic role axis to outcome credit. A structured judge classifies each segment as decisive progress, useful exploration, no-progress infrastructure, or regression, and a fixed role-conditioned rule maps these labels to bounded segment-level process rewards. This keeps verifier outcomes as the source of optimization direction while correcting the two main blind spots of outcome-only credit. We further show that role-conditioned credit is the optimal segment-level correction expressible from role labels alone -- a projection of the per-segment advantage residual onto the role variable -- so that the fixed role constants reduce advantage estimation error whenever the judge is reliable, and we connect this to lower-variance policy gradients. Across ALFWorld, Search-QA, and WebShop, TRIAGE improves success rates over GRPO for two policy models and outperforms both a scalar judge-derived process reward and an outcome-supervised shared-backbone value baseline. Ablations show that the gain comes from role typing rather than merely adding dense rewards: reliable detection of regression inside successful trajectories is the dominant contributor, while exploration credit provides a consistent secondary gain; on completed ALFWorld and WebShop rollouts, TRIAGE also reduces environment-facing turns by an additional 10.4% and 14.8% relative to GRPO.

Large language model (LLM) agent systems are increasingly expected to improve after deployment, but existing work often decouples two adaptation targets: skill evolution and multi-agent system (MAS) restructuring. This separation can create organization bottlenecks, context pressure, and mis-specialization. We present SkillMAS, a non-parametric framework for adaptive specialization in multi-agent systems that couples skill evolution with MAS restructuring. SkillMAS uses Utility Learning to assign credit from verified execution traces, bounded skill evolution to refine reusable procedures without unfiltered library growth, and evidence-gated MAS restructuring when retained failures and Executor Utility indicate a structural mismatch. Across embodied manipulation, command-line execution, and retail workflows, SkillMAS is competitive under the reported harnesses while clarifying how post-deployment specialization is attributed, updated, and applied.

Scaling interactive environments is important for training long-horizon agents through reinforcement learning. These environments often require further testing and refinement after initial generation, and correcting defects in a task may also require updating its work context and verifier. However, existing construction pipelines offer limited support for such iterative refinement while keeping these components aligned. We introduce WorkRover, a framework for training long-horizon cowork agents through recursive environment evolution. Its harness-driven synthesis enables construction agents to jointly build and validate semantically aligned work contexts, executable tasks, and evidence-grounded verifiers, adapting their actions to workspace state and execution feedback rather than following a fixed construction workflow. To support environment evolution, we introduce Factorial Compatibility Replay (FCR), which uses rollout feedback to evaluate combinations of component revisions through dependency-closed replay and selects the smallest validated repair among tested candidates while preserving task requirements and evaluation constraints. To provide finer-grained training signals, we propose Verifier-to-Turn Credit Assignment (VTCA), which augments trajectory-level GRPO advantages with signals from deterministic workspace-progress checks and assigns a bounded share of positive-progress credit to prerequisite turns using recorded tool-output and artifact dependencies. Using WorkRover, we post-train Qwen3.5-35B-A3B to obtain WorkRover-35B-A3B and evaluate it on several cowork-agent benchmarks. Its reported scores exceed those of Qwen3.5-35B-A3B by 26.27 percentage points on JobBench, 29.32 percentage points on OfficeQA Pro, and 413.25 Elo points on GDPval v2. These results suggest that WorkRover offers a promising foundation for scalable training of long-horizon cowork agents.

Long-horizon language agents must repeatedly interact with tools, accumulate evidence, and make decisions under bounded context windows. Existing context-management methods make such rollouts feasible by truncating distant history, folding past turns into summaries, or selecting compact memory states. However, these breakthroughs introduce two coupled limitations. First, as the number of turns grows, historical observations are progressively removed or collapsed into compressed states, making it harder for the policy to reuse fine-grained evidence. Second, once the original turns are no longer source-addressable, outcome-based RL loses an explicit path for aligning policy updates with the evidence that supported a successful final answer. To this end, we propose ECHO, a selective turn-memory framework that jointly addresses history collapse and traceable learning through source-indexed reconstruction. Specifically, ECHO compresses each completed environment turn into a compact memory record, reconstructs bounded policy contexts by selecting from these records, and reuses the selected source indices to route positive outcome credit to the evidence and selection actions that support successful answers. On BrowseComp-Plus, ECHO reaches 43.4% held-out accuracy, outperforming GRPO (28.9%) and the rolling-summary baseline SUPO (36.1%), while using fewer turns and lower trajectory volume than SUPO (Figure 1). Additionally, the trained policy improves zero-shot generalization across multi-objective QA, code generation, and deep information-seeking benchmarks on both dense and MoE backbones.

Moving ML-mediated decision making onto privacy-preserving clients decentralises the economic decision along with the inference. Shared budget constraints then depend on information that cannot be globally current, creating an information-structure failure that conventional pacing is not designed to solve. We study this information misalignment in an auction-logic-faithful on-device simulation with 36 campaigns and 50 devices. Accounting is in dimensionless integer score units; no currency semantics are claimed. Across 30 paired demand paths, proportional Even pacing overspends 17.77% after one tick of staleness and 1,669.31% after 50 ticks under the original 20-times budget pressure. The effect does not depend on that severe a budget: at two-times pressure, 50-tick overspend remains 106.95%. A visible-budget no-sale guard makes zero-lag compliance exact at this score-unit granularity, yet leaves 11.88% overspend at one tick because other devices' debits remain invisible. A declared bursty, heterogeneous-device sweep retains a strictly increasing mean lag curve. We derive a finite-window expected excess-debit bound under conditional charge caps and find positive paired slack in every bounded-value cell. A second, incentive misalignment arises when the ML/pacing score transformation is allowed to change payment units: 98.23% of rival auctions at one tick admit a profitable deviation. An executable implementation-level counterexample isolates the runner-up's multiplier in the winner's price. Critical-base-bid payment is per-auction DSIC conditional on current multipliers, but does not establish dynamic truthfulness and does not repair base-value ranking disagreement.

Fine-grained credit assignment is a central challenge in reinforcement learning for long horizon LLM agents. Standard objectives often train from programmatically verifiable terminal rewards by broadcasting each sparse outcome to every action in a trajectory. Existing methods typically seek finer credit from the rollout side, constructing auxiliary trajectory signals or additional comparisons to estimate action importance. Although useful, these approaches still treat the verifier that judged success as a scalar reward, discarding its internal task structure. Our key insight is that many verifiable tasks already encode the relevant checks inside their terminal verifier. We propose VICT (VerifierInstrumented Credit Tracing), a training-time interface that exposes executable or evidence backed atoms and traces them back to actions through dependency-valid proof edges. VICT redistributes group-relative advantage only along those edges, shifting credit assignment from rollout-side inference to verifierside tracing. It preserves the original terminal reward, abstains when evidence is incomplete or ambiguous, and changes only the training-time advantage tensor, requiring no learned critic, process labels, branch rollouts, or inference-time verifier access. On ALFWorld and WebShop, VICT improves substantially over outcome-only training and achieves strong performance alongside recent fine-grained credit methods; ablations rule out dense atom rewards, final-commit credit, temporal proximity, and sparsity as sufficient explanations.

Card games are widely used to study sequential decision-making under uncertainty, with real-world analogues in negotiation, finance, and cybersecurity. These games typically fall into three categories based on the flow of control: strictly sequential (players alternate single actions), deterministic response (some actions trigger a fixed outcome), and unbounded reciprocal response (alternating counterplays are permitted). A less-explored but strategically rich structure is the bounded one-sided response, where a player's action briefly transfers control to the opponent, who must satisfy a fixed condition through one or more moves before the turn resolves. We term games featuring this mechanism Bounded One-Sided Response Games (BORGs). We introduce a modified version of Monopoly Deal as a benchmark environment that isolates this dynamic, where a Rent action forces the opponent to choose payment assets. The gold-standard algorithm, Counterfactual Regret Minimization (CFR), converges on effective strategies without novel algorithmic extensions. A lightweight full-stack research platform unifies the environment, a parallelized CFR runtime, and a human-playable web interface. The trained CFR agent and source code are available at https://monopolydeal.ai.

Memory for a long-horizon LLM agent is a contract about what each future decision is allowed to see. The simplest contract appends past observations, tool calls, and reflections to every prompt, which makes prior context easy to access but also turns it into a jumbled mixture in which the effect of any single memory component is hard to isolate. We introduce and instrument an alternative bounded contract: every decision is made from a fresh user message assembled by typed retrieval, with no raw cross-decision transcript appended. The prompt thus stays bounded across runs of any length, and any single layer can be ablated in isolation. We instantiate the contract in Slay the Spire 2, a closed-rule stochastic deck-building game whose runs require hundreds of tactical and strategic decisions. A public online benchmark of frontier LLMs on the same game reports zero wins at the lowest difficulty across five configurations, and the developer-reported human win rate at the same difficulty is 16%; the task is hard but not saturated. Within our harness, a fixed-A0 ablation shows the largest observed difference when triggered strategic skills are enabled: the no-store baseline wins 3/10 games and adding the skill layer 6/10. At this sample size the comparison is directional rather than statistically decisive (Fisher exact p\approx0.37); a cross-backbone probe and public accumulating-context baselines are reported as operational comparisons rather than controlled tests of the contract variable itself. We release a reproducible testbed: 298 completed trajectories with condition tags, frozen memory/skill snapshots, prompt records, and analysis scripts -- an agent design and a validated, reusable methodology for studying how explicit memory layers shape long-horizon LLM-agent decisions.

Credit and risk assessments are cornerstones of the financial landscape, impacting both individual futures and broader societal constructs. Existing credit scoring models often exhibit limitations stemming from knowledge myopia and task isolation. In response, we formulate three hypotheses and undertake an extensive case study to investigate LLMs' viability in credit assessment. Our empirical investigations unveil LLMs' ability to overcome the limitations inherent in conventional models. We introduce a novel benchmark curated for credit assessment purposes, fine-tune a specialized Credit and Risk Assessment Large Language Model (CALM), and rigorously examine the biases that LLMs may harbor. Our findings underscore LLMs' potential in revolutionizing credit assessment, showcasing their adaptability across diverse financial evaluations, and emphasizing the critical importance of impartial decision-making in the financial sector. Our datasets, models, and benchmarks are open-sourced for other researchers.

This paper proposes a novel reinforcement learning (RL) framework for credit underwriting that tackles ungeneralizable contextual challenges. We adapt RL principles for credit scoring, incorporating action space renewal and multi-choice actions. Our work demonstrates that the traditional underwriting approach aligns with the RL greedy strategy. We introduce two new RL-based credit underwriting algorithms to enable more informed decision-making. Simulations show these new approaches outperform the traditional method in scenarios where the data aligns with the model. However, complex situations highlight model limitations, emphasizing the importance of powerful machine learning models for optimal performance. Future research directions include exploring more sophisticated models alongside efficient exploration mechanisms.

General-purpose technologies reshape economies less by improving individual tools than by enabling new ways to organize production and coordination. We believe AI agents are approaching a similar inflection point: as foundation models make broad task execution and tool use increasingly accessible, the binding constraint shifts from raw capability to how work is delegated, verified, and rewarded at scale. We introduce EpochX, a credits-native marketplace infrastructure for human-agent production networks. EpochX treats humans and agents as peer participants who can post tasks or claim them. Claimed tasks can be decomposed into subtasks and executed through an explicit delivery workflow with verification and acceptance. Crucially, EpochX is designed so that each completed transaction can produce reusable ecosystem assets, including skills, workflows, execution traces, and distilled experience. These assets are stored with explicit dependency structure, enabling retrieval, composition, and cumulative improvement over time. EpochX also introduces a native credit mechanism to make participation economically viable under real compute costs. Credits lock task bounties, budget delegation, settle rewards upon acceptance, and compensate creators when verified assets are reused. By formalizing the end-to-end transaction model together with its asset and incentive layers, EpochX reframes agentic AI as an organizational design problem: building infrastructures where verifiable work leaves persistent, reusable artifacts, and where value flows support durable human-agent collaboration.

Credit risk modeling relies extensively on Weight of Evidence (WoE) and Information Value (IV) for feature engineering, and Population Stability Index (PSI) for drift monitoring, yet their theoretical foundations remain disconnected. We establish a unified information-theoretic framework revealing these industry-standard metrics as instances of classical information divergences. Specifically, we prove that IV exactly equals PSI (Jeffreys divergence) computed between good and bad credit outcomes over identical bins. Through the delta method applied to WoE transformations, we derive standard errors for IV and PSI, enabling formal hypothesis testing and probabilistic fairness constraints for the first time. We formalize credit modeling's inherent performance-fairness trade-off as maximizing IV for predictive power while minimizing IV for protected attributes. Using automated binning with depth-1 XGBoost stumps, we compare three encoding strategies: logistic regression with one-hot encoding, WoE transformation, and constrained XGBoost. All methods achieve comparable predictive performance (AUC 0.82-0.84), demonstrating that principled, information-theoretic binning outweighs encoding choice. Mixed-integer programming traces Pareto-efficient solutions along the performance-fairness frontier with uncertainty quantification. This framework bridges theory and practice, providing the first rigorous statistical foundation for widely-used credit risk metrics while offering principled tools for balancing accuracy and fairness in regulated environments.

Reinforcement learning (RL) for large language models (LLMs) increasingly relies on sparse, outcome-level rewards -- yet determining which actions within a long trajectory caused the outcome remains difficult. This credit assignment (CA) problem manifests in two regimes: reasoning RL, where credit must be distributed across tokens and steps within a single chain-of-thought generation (500--30K+ tokens); and agentic RL, where multi-turn environment interaction introduces stochastic transitions, partial observability, and horizons of 100+ turns (100K--1M tokens), making episode-level credit increasingly uninformative. We survey 47 CA methods (41 core, 6 adjacent enablers) published between 2024 and early 2026, organizing them in a two-dimensional taxonomy by assignment granularity (token, segment, step, turn, multi-agent) and methodology (Monte Carlo, temporal difference, model-based, game-theoretic, information-theoretic). Beyond the survey itself, we contribute three reusable resources: (1) a structured, machine-readable paper inventory with taxonomy labels, baseline families, and evidence levels; (2) a reporting checklist for future CA papers, validated against the reviewed literature to identify systematic methodological gaps; and (3) a benchmark protocol specification with task families, metadata requirements, and controlled bifurcation tasks, accompanied by a method selection decision tree. Our synthesis suggests that the shift from reasoning to agentic RL complicates and reshapes the credit assignment landscape: reasoning CA is maturing around process reward models and critic-free group comparison, while agentic CA is driving genuinely new approaches -- hindsight counterfactual analysis, privileged asymmetric critics, and turn-level MDP reformulations -- that have no direct precedent in reasoning RL.

Open-team multi-agent reinforcement learning studies cooperative systems in which agents may join, leave, or be replaced during an episode. In such settings, the team return changes both because agents choose useful actions and because the active population itself changes. Standard centralized critics and shared advantages often mix these two effects into one scalar credit signal, allowing surviving agents to be rewarded or penalized for exogenous turnover events outside their control. We introduce turnover-orthogonal credit assignment (TOCA), a value decomposition for open teams that separates action effects, pure turnover effects, and action--turnover interactions. Under exogenous turnover, the event-conditioned value admits a centered decomposition whose event-conditioned baseline removes the pure turnover component while preserving credit for actions that make the team robust to future replacements. We instantiate this idea with a permutation-invariant centralized critic over variable-size agent sets and event tokens, and derive both a counterfactual per-agent credit signal and a softly weighted interaction variant, TOCA-β, for high-variance control environments. Controlled diagnostic experiments show that TOCA improves return over event-aware MAPPO-style critics and that removing interaction credit substantially hurts performance. In a replacement-only Dynamic Spread benchmark, TOCA-β achieves the best mean return at high turnover rates and improves over its no-interaction ablation. These results suggest that explicitly separating turnover from action credit is a useful principle for robust learning in dynamic cooperative teams.

We develop an econometric framework integrating heavy-tailed Student's t distributions with behavioral probability weighting while preserving infinite divisibility. Using 432{,}752 observations across 86 assets (2004--2024), we demonstrate Student's t specifications outperform Gaussian models in 88.4\% of cases. Bounded probability-weighting transformations preserve mathematical properties required for dynamic pricing. Gaussian models underestimate 99\% Value-at-Risk by 19.7\% versus 3.2\% for our specification. Joint estimation procedures identify tail and behavioral parameters with established asymptotic properties. Results provide robust inference for asset-pricing applications where heavy tails and behavioral distortions coexist.

Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) has improved the reasoning abilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) by using rule-based binary feedback, helping to mitigate reward hacking. However, current RLVR methods typically treat whole responses as single actions, assigning the same reward to every token. This coarse-grained feedback hampers precise credit assignment, making it hard for models to identify which reasoning steps lead to success or failure, and often results in suboptimal policies and inefficient learning. Methods like PPO provide credit assignment through value estimation, but often yield inaccurate and unverifiable signals due to limited sampling. On the other hand, methods using Process Reward Models can provide step-by-step judgments for each reasoning step, but they require high-quality process supervision labels and are time-consuming when applied in online reinforcement learning (RL). To overcome these limitations, we introduce a simple but efficient method Credit Assignment Policy Optimization (CAPO). Given a reasoning response rollout from the policy model, CAPO directly leverages an off-the-shelf, general-purpose LLM as a Generative Process Reward Model (LLM-as-GenPRM) to generate all step-wise critique by one pass, thereby providing verifiable token-level rewards to refine the tokens that were originally assigned identical rule-based rewards. This enables more fine-grained credit assignment in an effective way. Furthermore, to enhance the accuracy and robustness of CAPO, we employ voting mechanisms that scale with the number of generated critiques. Extensive experiments using different backbones like Llama and Qwen models and in different sizes show that CAPO consistently outperforms supervised learning-based and RL-based fine-tuning methods across six challenging mathematical benchmarks and three out-of-domain benchmarks.

Research agents explain planned experiments. We measure predictive credit with paired forecasts sharing an intervention, forecaster, and outcome while varying description, matched explanation, and donor context. Five checks track commitment, delivery, predictive gain, alignment, and known-signal uptake. Across 336 prospective states in controlled learning, 12 Tox21 endpoints, and 24 OpenML tasks, v5's frozen credit decision was inconclusive. Tox21's preregistered ROC AUC interval-score harm test was unmet (D-M=-.0026, 95 percent interval [-.0174, .0104]); OpenML's joint formation, point-equivalence, and repeatability rule was unmet. Matched point-accuracy gains over description remained unconfirmed, and Tox21/OpenML seed-donor intervals spanned zero. Under requested DeepSeek V4 Pro, matched and donor cards reduced secondary Tox21 drift by 64.5 and 59.1 percent. A DeepSeek V4 Flash replay raised matched point MAE from .01823 to .02020 and missed matched-donor interval-score equivalence. OpenML full-card assignment widened nominal 80 percent intervals by 21 percent, with 49.3 percent coverage versus 51.4 percent for description and content in 66/144 cards. Direct-text Flash delivered all 144 notes without detectable matched point-accuracy gain. A researcher-authored mechanism positive control lowered point MAE by 2.60 percentage points versus description. The protocol measures predictive credit for research-agent benchmarks and scientific forecasting; natural-explanation credit remained unconfirmed at the tested donor resolutions.

Credit assignment is a central challenge in reinforcement learning (RL). Classical actor-critic methods address this challenge through fine-grained advantage estimation based on a learned value function. However, learned value models are often avoided in modern large language model (LLM) RL because conventional discriminative critics are difficult to train reliably. We revisit value modeling and argue that this difficulty is partly due to limited expressiveness. In particular, representation complexity theory suggests that value functions can be hard to approximate under the one-shot prediction paradigm used by existing value models, and our scaling experiments show that such critics do not improve reliably with scale. Motivated by this observation, we propose Generative Actor-Critic (GenAC), which replaces one-shot scalar value prediction with a generative critic that performs chain-of-thought reasoning before producing a value estimate. We further introduce In-Context Conditioning, which helps the critic remain calibrated to the current actor throughout training. GenAC improves value approximation, ranking reliability, and out-of-distribution generalization, and these gains translate into stronger downstream RL performance than both value-based and value-free baselines. Overall, our results suggest that stronger value modeling is a promising direction for improving credit assignment in LLM reinforcement learning.

We develop and counterfactually evaluate a resolution-aware risk-design framework (PIRAP) for perpetual futures whose underlying tracks a single binary prediction-market probability through resolution. The framework specifies six components: an index estimator combining mid-price, depth-weighted mid, and time-decayed VWAP; jump-aware tiered margin sized against bounded-event terminal-collapse magnitude; leverage compression schedule contracting toward resolution; resolution-aware funding rule with boundary-aware correction; a multi-stage halt protocol; and an eligibility framework. Two formal non-portability propositions establish that standard basis-only funding paired with continuous-vol static margin fails on bounded-event underlyings. Empirical evaluation uses Polymarket's PMXT v2 archive for 2026-04-21 to 2026-04-27 (13,298-market analysis sample passing adequacy gates from 61,087 ingested; 13,115 resolved within the empirical window for E3). E1 evaluates two pre-registered stylized facts; E2 conducts counterfactual replay across three engine configurations; E3 isolates the resolution-zone protocol's contribution. Results are mixed. Five pre-registered floors: stylized-fact floors (boundary depth asymmetry, terminal-jump magnitude) PASS; welfare-side directional floors (final-hour liquidation -6%, drawdown -5.1% pooled, median PnL +14%) two FAIL one PASS; E3 mechanic floors (final-hour liquidation -80% by halt construction PASS; bad-debt frequency +2.4% FAIL). Three of five materiality floors fail: the framework as specified does not validate deployment, but the empirical record establishes a halt-versus-margin scope distinction (halt addresses execution-channel risk; terminal-jump bad-debt remains margin-side) and documents a pre-emption trade-off constraining the dynamic-margin component. The paper concludes with structural recommendations and explicit non-deployable status.

On-policy self-distillation has emerged as a promising paradigm for post-training language models, in which the model conditions on environment feedback to serve as its own teacher, providing dense token-level rewards without external teacher models or step-level annotations. Despite its empirical success, what this reward actually measures and what kind of credit it assigns remain unclear. Under a posterior-compatibility interpretation of feedback conditioning, standard in the implicit-reward literature, we show that the self-distillation token reward is a Bayesian filtering increment whose trajectory sum is exactly the pointwise mutual information between the response and the feedback given the input. This pMI can be raised by input-specific reasoning or by input-generic shortcuts, so we further decompose the teacher log-probability along the input axis. Based on this analysis, we propose CREDIT (Contrastive REward from DIsTillation), which isolates the input-specific component with a batch-contrastive baseline. At the sequence level, CREDIT is a teacher-side surrogate for a contrastive pMI objective that also penalizes responses remaining likely under unrelated inputs. Across coding, scientific reasoning, and tool-use benchmarks on two model families, CREDIT delivers the strongest aggregate performance at negligible additional compute.

RLVR provides reliable trajectory-level credit, while OPSD offers dense supervision for token-level credit. This exposes a fundamental coupling when updating step-level credit direction and magnitude with teacher supervision, preventing steps from receiving reliable credit directions and contribution magnitudes, while making both vulnerable to teacher judgment errors and preference variance, as supported by our theoretical analysis. To separate credit direction from its contribution magnitude, we introduce Decoupled Credit Self-Distillation (DCSD), which theoretically decouples credit direction and magnitude into two reliable signals and uses them to calibrate privileged teacher supervision. Specifically, we design belief-margin probing to determine credit direction and marginal information gain to quantify credit magnitude, enabling step-to-token credit assignment for policy optimization. Across 11 benchmarks, DCSD achieves the best overall scores against GRPO, OPSD, RLSD, and RLCSD. Compared with base models, DCSD improves the overall score by 8.45 points on mathematical reasoning and 7.01 points on multimodal reasoning, while correcting the credit direction for 6\% of tokens and yielding a 1.5times reduction in token credit magnitude.

We present Cadence, an error-bounded lossy compressor for numeric time series pairing a 330M-parameter time-series foundation model (Google TimesFM-3) with an adaptive arithmetic coder, guaranteeing |x_t-x_t|leτ on every sample. One negative result constrains the design space: for lossless coding a foundation model is worth nothing, because bits saved are logarithmic in predictor accuracy, Δb=log_2(MAE_{old}/MAE_{new}). So the 1.51times advantage TimesFM-3 holds over a 32-tap linear predictor buys 0.60 bits of 20.28, a median gain of +0.03%. Error-bounded coding escapes this at one point: once a forecast lands inside the band the residual index is zero and the sample nearly free. Cadence contributes: (1) an adaptive range coder with context-modelled binarization, beating xz/zstd on real indices by 9.7% (15/15) and reversing a finding from a general-purpose back end; (2) a determinism result -- predictions are not bit-identical across batch sizes, and no PyTorch configuration repairs this, forcing group size and execution device into the container format; and (3) domain localization on corpora postdating any plausible training cutoff. On 49 EIA-930 balancing-authority demand series (2026) Cadence gains 13.3% over the best of six classical predictors, and 28.3% on 50 MTA ridership series (2026): 21.4% median over 297 series-tolerance pairs, winning all 297. Against downsampling, what time-series databases deploy for retention, its guaranteed worst-case error is 28--56times tighter at equal size. End-to-end, once the context bootstrap is paid for, gains run from 6.8% at six months of hourly data to 15.1% asymptotically. Attempting to falsify the domain claim on SDRBench, theory predicts failure and delivers: -0.8% median, 0 of 27 pairs gaining. Three further negative results and eight retracted claims are reported in full.

We study permissionless spot--perpetual basis trading in decentralized finance as a collateral control problem. The strategy holds spot inventory, hedges directional exposure with a short perpetual, and allocates capital between spot inventory and derivative margin under on-chain liquidity and execution frictions. The paper delivers three results. First, it solves a static control problem for the collateral share and shows that the risk-constrained formulation provides a more robust operating benchmark relative to the economic optimum. In comparative calibration, the required collateral rises monotonically under volatility stress. The collateral is the lowest for BTC and increases significantly for long tail assets such as LINK and DOGE. Second, the paper derives an asymmetric dynamic extension in which the lower boundary of intervention is solvency driven, and the upper boundary is determined by a trade-off between carry-loss and the cost of rebalancing. Monte Carlo simulation shows that the lower boundary remains structurally relevant, whereas meaningful interior upper triggers survive mainly in the regimes with high carry and low costs. Third, the paper validates an execution-aware implementation with live routed execution and historical backtests. The execution layer shows that the realized wedges are significant, but become worse in the case of selling the basis. This justifies a minimum effective rebalancing size and a positive execution buffer. The historical validation shows that in the case of a fixed control rule the realized performance is predominantly explained by the funding environment.

Collaborative multi-agent large language models (LLMs) can solve complex reasoning tasks by decomposing roles, but reinforcement learning for such systems is limited by credit assignment: shared terminal rewards obscure individual contributions and can encourage free-riding. We introduce Collaborative Credit Policy Optimization (CCPO), an optimizer-agnostic credit assignment layer that converts team-level outcomes into agent-specific learning signals. CCPO provides two complementary allocators. Counterfactual credit estimates an agent's marginal contribution by comparing the realized team outcome with a counterfactual outcome where that agent is removed. Verifier-anchored LLM self-evaluation is an exploratory allocator that uses constrained self- and peer-evaluations to redistribute credit while keeping the external verifier outcome dominant. The resulting role-specific rewards can be consumed by GRPO-style updates or other policy-gradient optimizers such as GSPO and REINFORCE++. We instantiate CCPO in a sequential Think--Solve setting and evaluate it on mathematical reasoning benchmarks. Results show that explicit credit assignment often improves dual-agent reasoning, especially on MATH500 and several out-of-distribution settings, while gains vary across models and datasets.

Agent frameworks increasingly package procedural knowledge as skills: instruction files an agent reads on demand, while public libraries now hold thousands of them. Which skill to read has thus become a decision the policy itself makes in the middle of an episode, yet no existing signal trains it. We show that the default remedy, outcome-rewarded RL over the candidate slate, cannot teach it, for a structural reason we identify and name selector credit starvation: under a broadcast, sequence-level advantage, the few tokens that name the chosen skill carry a vanishing share of the loss, and the credit they inherit is increasingly wrong-signed as trajectories lengthen. A correct choice is punished whenever the execution after it fails, even though the choice itself is among the most valuable decisions in the trajectory. Auditing a completed run's own training artifacts confirms all three properties, each worsening monotonically with horizon. SkillGate removes the failure by construction: it partitions the token support into two disjoint credit channels, outcome credit reaching only execution tokens, and a separate action-local advantage reaching exactly the skill-naming tokens, positive only when a trajectory's single read is the correct one. On five agentic benchmarks under a 16-candidate slate, SkillGate lifts a 9B policy from 40.8% to 53.2% trial success, well ahead of the identical budget spent on outcome reward alone, while cutting exposure to misleading candidates by two thirds and reading fewer skills.

Credit assignment, the process of attributing credit or blame to individual agents for their contributions to a team's success or failure, remains a fundamental challenge in multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL), particularly in environments with sparse rewards. Commonly-used approaches such as value decomposition often lead to suboptimal policies in these settings, and designing dense reward functions that align with human intuition can be complex and labor-intensive. In this work, we propose a novel framework where a large language model (LLM) generates dense, agent-specific rewards based on a natural language description of the task and the overall team goal. By learning a potential-based reward function over multiple queries, our method reduces the impact of ranking errors while allowing the LLM to evaluate each agent's contribution to the overall task. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate that our approach achieves faster convergence and higher policy returns compared to state-of-the-art MARL baselines.

Multi-turn agents solve complex tasks through extended sequences of tool interactions before producing a final answer, making credit assignment a fundamental challenge during post-training. Outcome rewards provide reliable supervision for short-horizon reasoning, but become sparse and high-variance as trajectories grow to tens or hundreds of tool calls. They can also be misleading: a failed rollout may contain many useful actions that move the agent closer to the goal, yet outcome-only training assigns them the same negative advantage as the eventual mistake. We propose TRACE (Turn-level Reward Assignment via Credit Estimation), a dense credit-assignment method for agentic reinforcement learning. TRACE represents rollouts as state transitions at tool-call boundaries, obtains gold-answer log-probabilities from a frozen reference model, transforms them into log-ratio state values, and derives per-action rewards as Temporal-Difference changes in those values. This requires no additional critic or process-label training, and its one-step log-ratio TD component telescopes across redundant tool calls. On long-horizon complex search, TRACE substantially improves base-model tool-use ability using pure RL, without a cold-start supervised fine-tuning stage, an agentic mid-training stage, or training on live-web data. On the closed-web BrowseComp-Plus benchmark, it raises Qwen3-4B from 7.2 to 35.6 and Qwen3-30B-A3B from 8.4 to 42.6. The learned search behavior also transfers to open-web benchmarks, and the learning curves show earlier improvement and faster convergence during RL training.

Process reward models (PRMs) have proven effective for test-time scaling of Large Language Models (LLMs) on challenging reasoning tasks. However, reward hacking issues with PRMs limit their successful application in reinforcement fine-tuning. In this paper, we identify the main cause of PRM-induced reward hacking: the canonical summation-form credit assignment in reinforcement learning (RL), which defines the value as cumulative gamma-decayed future rewards, easily induces LLMs to hack steps with high rewards. To address this, we propose PURE: Process sUpervised Reinforcement lEarning. The key innovation of PURE is a min-form credit assignment that formulates the value function as the minimum of future rewards. This method significantly alleviates reward hacking by limiting the value function range and distributing advantages more reasonably. Through extensive experiments on 3 base models, we show that PRM-based approaches enabling min-form credit assignment achieve comparable reasoning performance to verifiable reward-based methods within only 30% steps. In contrast, the canonical sum-form credit assignment collapses training even at the beginning! Additionally, when we supplement PRM-based fine-tuning with just 10% verifiable rewards, we further alleviate reward hacking and produce the best fine-tuned model based on Qwen2.5-Math-7B in our experiments, achieving 82.5% accuracy on AMC23 and 53.3% average accuracy across 5 benchmarks. Moreover, we summarize the observed reward hacking cases and analyze the causes of training collapse. Code and models are available at https://github.com/CJReinforce/PURE.

Reinforcement learning (RL) has achieved remarkable success in enhancing the reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs). However, widely used critic-free RL methods rely on uniform credit assignment, broadcasting the same advantage to all tokens regardless of their differences. We identify a critical failure mode of this design, which we refer to as Positive-Credit Contamination: low-probability tail tokens that are contextually erroneous receive identical positive credit to plausible ones within the same trajectory, resulting in the indiscriminate reinforcement of flawed reasoning behavior. To mitigate this issue, we propose Tail-Aware Credit calibratiOn (TACO), a method that calibrates uniform credit assignment to suppress undesirable positive updates. TACO first computes a tail-risk score that incorporates the local generation context to assess each token's risk of falling into the unreliable tail, distinguishing unexpected rarity from uncertainty-driven exploration. TACO then uses this score to tune positive credit for risky tokens without removing their gradients entirely, so that recurring useful rare patterns can accumulate reinforcement while incidental noise is progressively dampened. Experimental results across three LLMs and eight benchmarks show that TACO consistently outperforms GRPO-style baselines. Notably, TACO improves training stability, supporting sustained performance gains in long-horizon RL. The source code is available at: https://github.com/xiuyilou/TACO.

As concerns surrounding AI-driven labor displacement intensify in knowledge-intensive sectors, existing benchmarks fail to measure performance on tasks that define practical professional expertise. Finance, in particular, has been identified as a domain with high AI exposure risk, yet lacks robust benchmarks to track real-world developments. This gap is compounded by the absence of clear accountability mechanisms in current Large Language Model (LLM) deployments. To address this, we introduce FrontierFinance, a long-horizon benchmark of 25 complex financial modeling tasks across five core finance models, requiring an average of over 18 hours of skilled human labor per task to complete. Developed with financial professionals, the benchmark reflects industry-standard financial modeling workflows and is paired with detailed rubrics for structured evaluation. We engage human experts to define the tasks, create rubrics, grade LLMs, and perform the tasks themselves as human baselines. We demonstrate that our human experts both receive higher scores on average, and are more likely to provide client-ready outputs than current state-of-the-art systems.

Reward models have been increasingly critical for improving the reasoning capability of LLMs. Existing research has shown that a well-trained reward model can substantially improve model performances at inference time via search. However, the potential of reward models during RL training time still remains largely under-explored. It is currently unclear whether these reward models can provide additional training signals to enhance the reasoning capabilities of LLMs in RL training that uses sparse success rewards, which verify the correctness of solutions. In this work, we evaluate popular reward models for RL training, including the Outcome-supervised Reward Model (ORM) and the Process-supervised Reward Model (PRM), and train a collection of LLMs for math problems using RL by combining these learned rewards with success rewards. Surprisingly, even though these learned reward models have strong inference-time performances, they may NOT help or even hurt RL training, producing worse performances than LLMs trained with the success reward only. Our analysis reveals that an LLM can receive high rewards from some of these reward models by repeating correct but unnecessary reasoning steps, leading to a severe reward hacking issue. Therefore, we introduce two novel reward refinement techniques, including Clipping and Delta. The key idea is to ensure the accumulative reward of any reasoning trajectory is upper-bounded to keep a learned reward model effective without being exploited. We evaluate our techniques with multiple reward models over a set of 1.5B and 7B LLMs on MATH and GSM8K benchmarks and demonstrate that with a carefully designed reward function, RL training without any additional supervised tuning can improve all the evaluated LLMs, including the state-of-the-art 7B LLM Qwen2.5-Math-7B-Instruct on MATH and GSM8K benchmarks.

We study principal-agent problems in which a principal commits to an outcome-dependent payment scheme -- called contract -- in order to induce an agent to take a costly, unobservable action leading to favorable outcomes. We consider a generalization of the classical (single-round) version of the problem in which the principal interacts with the agent by committing to contracts over multiple rounds. The principal has no information about the agent, and they have to learn an optimal contract by only observing the outcome realized at each round. We focus on settings in which the size of the agent's action space is small. We design an algorithm that learns an approximately-optimal contract with high probability in a number of rounds polynomial in the size of the outcome space, when the number of actions is constant. Our algorithm solves an open problem by Zhu et al.[2022]. Moreover, it can also be employed to provide a mathcal{O}(T^{4/5}) regret bound in the related online learning setting in which the principal aims at maximizing their cumulative utility, thus considerably improving previously-known regret bounds.

Machine learning models are often used to decide who will receive a loan, a job interview, or a public benefit. Standard techniques to build these models use features about people but overlook their actionability. In turn, models can assign predictions that are fixed, meaning that consumers who are denied loans, interviews, or benefits may be permanently locked out from access to credit, employment, or assistance. In this work, we introduce a formal testing procedure to flag models that assign fixed predictions that we call recourse verification. We develop machinery to reliably determine if a given model can provide recourse to its decision subjects from a set of user-specified actionability constraints. We demonstrate how our tools can ensure recourse and adversarial robustness in real-world datasets and use them to study the infeasibility of recourse in real-world lending datasets. Our results highlight how models can inadvertently assign fixed predictions that permanently bar access, and we provide tools to design algorithms that account for actionability when developing models.

Closed-loop decision-making systems (e.g., lending, screening, or recidivism risk assessment) often operate under fairness and service constraints while inducing feedback effects: decisions change who appears in the future, yielding non-stationary data and potentially amplifying disparities. We study online learning of a one-dimensional threshold policy from bandit feedback under demographic parity (DP) and, optionally, service-rate constraints. The learner observes only a scalar score each round and selects a threshold; reward and constraint residuals are revealed only for the chosen threshold. We propose Optimistic Feasible Search (OFS), a simple grid-based method that maintains confidence bounds for reward and constraint residuals for each candidate threshold. At each round, OFS selects a threshold that appears feasible under confidence bounds and, among those, maximizes optimistic reward; if no threshold appears feasible, OFS selects the threshold minimizing optimistic constraint violation. This design directly targets feasible high-utility thresholds and is particularly effective for low-dimensional, interpretable policy classes where discretization is natural. We evaluate OFS on (i) a synthetic closed-loop benchmark with stable contraction dynamics and (ii) two semi-synthetic closed-loop benchmarks grounded in German Credit and COMPAS, constructed by training a score model and feeding group-dependent acceptance decisions back into population composition. Across all environments, OFS achieves higher reward with smaller cumulative constraint violation than unconstrained and primal-dual bandit baselines, and is near-oracle relative to the best feasible fixed threshold under the same sweep procedure. Experiments are reproducible and organized with double-blind-friendly relative outputs.

Reinforcement Learning (RL) serves as a potent paradigm for enhancing reasoning capabilities in Large Language Models (LLMs), yet standard outcome-based approaches often suffer from reward sparsity and inefficient credit assignment. In this paper, we propose a novel framework designed to provide continuous reward signals, which introduces a Step-wise Marginal Information Gain (MIG) mechanism that quantifies the intrinsic value of reasoning steps against a Monotonic Historical Watermark, effectively filtering out training noise. To ensure disentangled credit distribution, we implement a Decoupled Masking Strategy, applying process-oriented rewards specifically to the chain-of-thought (CoT) and outcome-oriented rewards to the full completion. Additionally, we incorporate a Dual-Gated SFT objective to stabilize training with high-quality structural and factual signals. Extensive experiments across textual and multi-modal benchmarks (e.g., MATH, Super-CLEVR) demonstrate that our approach consistently outperforms baselines such as GRPO in both sample efficiency and final accuracy. Furthermore, our model exhibits superior out-of-distribution robustness, demonstrating promising zero-shot transfer capabilities to unseen and challenging reasoning tasks.

Machine learning models are increasingly used to automate decisions that affect humans - deciding who should receive a loan, a job interview, or a social service. In such applications, a person should have the ability to change the decision of a model. When a person is denied a loan by a credit score, for example, they should be able to alter its input variables in a way that guarantees approval. Otherwise, they will be denied the loan as long as the model is deployed. More importantly, they will lack the ability to influence a decision that affects their livelihood. In this paper, we frame these issues in terms of recourse, which we define as the ability of a person to change the decision of a model by altering actionable input variables (e.g., income vs. age or marital status). We present integer programming tools to ensure recourse in linear classification problems without interfering in model development. We demonstrate how our tools can inform stakeholders through experiments on credit scoring problems. Our results show that recourse can be significantly affected by standard practices in model development, and motivate the need to evaluate recourse in practice.

Reinforcement learning from verifiable rewards (RLVR) has improved the reasoning abilities of large language models (LLMs), but most existing approaches rely on sparse outcome-level feedback. This sparsity creates a credit assignment challenge in long-horizon agentic reasoning: a trajectory may fail despite containing many correct intermediate decisions, or succeed despite containing flawed ones. In this work, we study a class of densely-verifiable agentic reasoning problems, where intermediate actions can be objectively checked by symbolic or algorithmic oracles. We propose Verifiable Process Rewards (VPR), a framework that converts such oracles into dense turn-level supervision for reinforcement learning, and instantiate it in three representative settings: search-based verification for dynamic deduction, constraint-based verification for logical reasoning, and posterior-based verification for probabilistic inference. We further provide a theoretical analysis showing that dense verifier-grounded rewards can improve long-horizon credit assignment by providing more localized learning signals, with the benefit depending on the reliability of the verifier. Empirically, VPR outperforms outcome-level reward and rollout-based process reward baselines across controlled environments, and more importantly, transfers to both general and agentic reasoning benchmarks, suggesting that verifiable process supervision can foster general reasoning skills applicable beyond the training environments. Our results indicate that VPR is a promising approach for enhancing LLM agents whenever reliable intermediate verification is available, while also highlighting its dependence on oracle quality and the open challenge of extending VPR to less structured, open-ended environments.

As large language model (LLM) agents evolve from isolated tool users into coordinated teams, reinforcement learning (RL) must optimize not only individual actions but also how work is spawned, delegated, communicated, aggregated, and stopped. This paper studies RL for LLM-based multi-agent systems through orchestration traces: temporal interaction graphs whose events include sub-agent spawning, delegation, communication, tool use, return, aggregation, and stopping decisions. Using this lens, we identify three technical axes. First, reward design spans eight families, including orchestration rewards for parallelism speedup, split correctness, and aggregation quality. Second, reward and credit signals attach to eight credit- or signal-bearing units from token to team; explicit counterfactual message-level credit remains especially sparse in our curated pool. Third, orchestration learning decomposes into five sub-decisions: when to spawn, whom to delegate to, how to communicate, how to aggregate, and when to stop. In our curated pool as of May 4, 2026, we found no explicit RL training method for the stopping decision. We connect academic methods to public industrial evidence from Kimi Agent Swarm, OpenAI Codex, and Anthropic Claude Code. The resulting scale gap is a gap between publicly reported deployment envelopes and open academic evaluation regimes, not independent verification of industrial training traces. We release the artifact at https://github.com/xxzcc/awesome-llm-mas-rl, including an 84-entry tagged paper pool, a 32-record exclusion log, scripted corpus statistics, and a minimal JSON schema for replayable orchestration traces.

Reinforcement learning for agentic large language models (LLMs) typically relies on a sparse, trajectory-level outcome reward, making it difficult to evaluate the contribution of individual tool-calls within multi-turn interactions. Existing approaches to such process credit assignment either depend on separate external process reward models that introduce additional consumption, or tree-based structural rollout that merely redistributes the outcome signal while constraining trajectory diversity. A promising alternative leverages the per-turn change in the policy's predicted probability of the ground-truth, termed Information Gain (IG), as an intrinsic process signal without an external evaluator. However, prior work on leveraging IG signals within the RL training loop faces three systematic challenges: normalizing across turns that face heterogeneous positional contexts can distort the relative standing of individual turns, accumulating a variable number of terms causes advantage magnitudes to drift with trajectory depth, and a fixed clipping range governs policy updates identically for turns with vastly different IG signals. In this paper, we propose A^2TGPO (Agentic Turn-Group Policy Optimization with Adaptive Turn-level Clipping), which retains IG as the intrinsic signal but re-designs how it is normalized, accumulated, and consumed: (i) turn-group normalization: normalizes IG within each (prompt, turn-index) group so that each turn is compared only against peers at the same interaction depth; (ii) variance-rescaled discounted accumulation: divides cumulative normalized IG by square root of accumulated terms to keep advantage magnitudes comparable across turn positions; and (iii) adaptive turn-level clipping: modulates each turn's clipping range based on its normalized IG, widening the update region for informative turns and narrowing it for uninformative ones.

Peer-to-peer (P2P) lending connects borrowers and lenders through online platforms but suffers from significant information asymmetry, as lenders often lack sufficient data to assess borrowers' creditworthiness. This paper addresses this challenge by leveraging BERT, a Large Language Model (LLM) known for its ability to capture contextual nuances in text, to generate a risk score based on borrowers' loan descriptions using a dataset from the Lending Club platform. We fine-tune BERT to distinguish between defaulted and non-defaulted loans using the loan descriptions provided by the borrowers. The resulting BERT-generated risk score is then integrated as an additional feature into an XGBoost classifier used at the loan granting stage, where decision-makers have limited information available to guide their decisions. This integration enhances predictive performance, with improvements in balanced accuracy and AUC, highlighting the value of textual features in complementing traditional inputs. Moreover, we find that the incorporation of the BERT score alters how classification models utilize traditional input variables, with these changes varying by loan purpose. These findings suggest that BERT discerns meaningful patterns in loan descriptions, encompassing borrower-specific features, specific purposes, and linguistic characteristics. However, the inherent opacity of LLMs and their potential biases underscore the need for transparent frameworks to ensure regulatory compliance and foster trust. Overall, this study demonstrates how LLM-derived insights interact with traditional features in credit risk modeling, opening new avenues to enhance the explainability and fairness of these models.

Tool-Integrated Reasoning (TIR) empowers large language models (LLMs) to tackle complex tasks by interleaving reasoning steps with external tool interactions. However, existing reinforcement learning methods typically rely on outcome- or trajectory-level rewards, assigning uniform advantages to all steps within a trajectory. This coarse-grained credit assignment fails to distinguish effective tool calls from redundant or erroneous ones, particularly in long-horizon multi-turn scenarios. To address this, we propose MatchTIR, a framework that introduces fine-grained supervision via bipartite matching-based turn-level reward assignment and dual-level advantage estimation. Specifically, we formulate credit assignment as a bipartite matching problem between predicted and ground-truth traces, utilizing two assignment strategies to derive dense turn-level rewards. Furthermore, to balance local step precision with global task success, we introduce a dual-level advantage estimation scheme that integrates turn-level and trajectory-level signals, assigning distinct advantage values to individual interaction turns. Extensive experiments on three benchmarks demonstrate the superiority of MatchTIR. Notably, our 4B model surpasses the majority of 8B competitors, particularly in long-horizon and multi-turn tasks. Our codes are available at https://github.com/quchangle1/MatchTIR.

We propose a criterion for discrimination against a specified sensitive attribute in supervised learning, where the goal is to predict some target based on available features. Assuming data about the predictor, target, and membership in the protected group are available, we show how to optimally adjust any learned predictor so as to remove discrimination according to our definition. Our framework also improves incentives by shifting the cost of poor classification from disadvantaged groups to the decision maker, who can respond by improving the classification accuracy. In line with other studies, our notion is oblivious: it depends only on the joint statistics of the predictor, the target and the protected attribute, but not on interpretation of individualfeatures. We study the inherent limits of defining and identifying biases based on such oblivious measures, outlining what can and cannot be inferred from different oblivious tests. We illustrate our notion using a case study of FICO credit scores.

While long-horizon agentic tasks require language agents to perform dozens of sequential decisions, training such agents with reinforcement learning remains challenging. We identify two root causes: credit misattribution, where correct early actions are penalized due to terminal failures, and sample inefficiency, where scarce successful trajectories result in near-total loss of learning signal. We introduce a milestone-guided policy learning framework, BEACON, that leverages the compositional structure of long-horizon tasks to ensure precise credit assignment. BEACON partitions trajectories at milestone boundaries, applies temporal reward shaping within segments to credit partial progress, and estimates advantages at dual scales to prevent distant failures from corrupting the evaluation of local actions. On ALFWorld, WebShop, and ScienceWorld, BEACON consistently outperforms GRPO and GiGPO. Notably, on long-horizon ALFWorld tasks, BEACON achieves 92.9% success rate, nearly doubling GRPO's 53.5%, while improving effective sample utilization from 23.7% to 82.0%. These results establish milestone-anchored credit assignment as an effective paradigm for training long-horizon language agents. Code is available at https://github.com/ZJU-REAL/BEACON.

An LLM agent's real-task performance is shaped as much by the harness around its model as by the frozen model itself: its prompts, injected knowledge, runtime control, and configuration. In deployment the harness is often the only lever available, so improving it automatically is the natural way to raise performance without touching the weights. The hard part is not generating changes but knowing which one truly helped. Self-generated feedback is noisy, and an apparent gain can be a measurement artifact or an edit that merely overfits the tasks it was tuned on. We present a self-evolving agent-harness framework that separates proposing changes from crediting them: a language model diagnoses failures and proposes patches, while all sampling, measurement, and significance testing are owned by deterministic code, so every credited improvement is trustworthy by construction. Patches populate a gated, categorical quality-diversity archive (GSME) keyed on the (WHERE x WHY) pathology an edit addresses rather than the tasks it fixes, an anti-overfitting inductive bias; generalization is measured on a sealed test scored only after evolution. Across seven domains with a frozen open-weight model, the harness is train-selected and scored once on a sealed test; its credited gains there are +9 to +15.5pp and retain 86-147% of the training gain, evidence they generalize rather than overfit. The winning patch tracks the model's dominant pathology, not its size or family: changing the model can change the pathology and the patch, while the same pathology-to-patch match recurs across two model families. What transfers is the diagnose-and-credit loop, not any specific harness.

Decentralized Finance (DeFi), a financial ecosystem without centralized controlling organization, has introduced a new paradigm for lending and borrowing. However, its capital efficiency remains constrained by the inability to effectively assess the risk associated with each user/wallet. This paper introduces the 'On-Chain Credit Risk Score (OCCR Score) in DeFi', a probabilistic measure designed to quantify the credit risk associated with a wallet. By analyzing historical real-time on-chain activity as well as predictive scenarios, the OCCR Score may enable DeFi lending protocols to dynamically adjust Loan-to-Value (LTV) ratios and Liquidation Thresholds (LT) based on the risk profile of a wallet. Unlike existing wallet risk scoring models, which rely on heuristic-based evaluations, the OCCR Score offers a more objective and probabilistic approach, aligning closer to traditional credit risk assessment methodologies. This framework can further enhance DeFi's capital efficiency by incentivizing responsible borrowing behavior and optimizing risk-adjusted returns for lenders.

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) enables language models to learn multi-turn interaction with external tools, yet its sparse outcome rewards provide no signal for identifying which intermediate decisions are responsible for success. Branch sampling induces local comparisons among alternative continuations, but existing methods tend to conflate two distinct problems: allocating a fixed rollout budget and translating branch outcomes into token-level credit. We introduce Contrastive Branch Policy Optimization (CBPO), which disentangles these two problems and assigns a dedicated mechanism to each. Generation entropy screens candidate branch positions across the entire response, while path-level and node-level decay distribute a fixed budget across trajectories and positions to prevent exploration from collapsing onto a few paths or adjacent tokens. A parent trajectory together with the branches that share an identical token prefix forms an exact-prefix group, and the reward variation within this controlled group defines the Contrastive Branch Value (CBV), an outcome-based estimate of local decision sensitivity that rescales continuation advantages without altering their sign. When multiple nodes are selected along the same trajectory, CBPO partitions it into non-overlapping credit segments, thereby avoiding duplicated gradients on shared tokens. Requiring only outcome rewards and no process-level annotation, CBPO provides a practical solution for fine-grained credit assignment in tool-integrated agent training. Extensive experiments on ten benchmarks, including five for mathematical reasoning and five for knowledge-intensive search, show that CBPO consistently outperforms state-of-the-art policy-optimization and branch-based methods, attaining the highest macro-average accuracy in both domains and across two model scales.

Reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) offers a promising approach to aligning large language models (LLMs) with human preferences. Typically, a reward model is trained or supplied to act as a proxy for humans in evaluating generated responses during the reinforcement training phase. However, current reward models operate as sequence-to-one models, allocating a single, sparse, and delayed reward to an entire output sequence. This approach may overlook the significant contributions of individual tokens toward the desired outcome. To this end, we propose a more fine-grained, token-level guidance approach for RL training. Specifically, we introduce RED, a novel reward redistribition method that evaluates and assigns specific credit to each token using an off-the-shelf reward model. Utilizing these fine-grained rewards enhances the model's understanding of language nuances, leading to more precise performance improvements. Notably, our method does not require modifying the reward model or introducing additional training steps, thereby incurring minimal computational costs. Experimental results across diverse datasets and tasks demonstrate the superiority of our approach.

Reinforcement learning (RL) often encounters delayed and sparse feedback in real-world applications, even with only episodic rewards. Previous approaches have made some progress in reward redistribution for credit assignment but still face challenges, including training difficulties due to redundancy and ambiguous attributions stemming from overlooking the multifaceted nature of mission performance evaluation. Hopefully, Large Language Model (LLM) encompasses fruitful decision-making knowledge and provides a plausible tool for reward redistribution. Even so, deploying LLM in this case is non-trivial due to the misalignment between linguistic knowledge and the symbolic form requirement, together with inherent randomness and hallucinations in inference. To tackle these issues, we introduce LaRe, a novel LLM-empowered symbolic-based decision-making framework, to improve credit assignment. Key to LaRe is the concept of the Latent Reward, which works as a multi-dimensional performance evaluation, enabling more interpretable goal attainment from various perspectives and facilitating more effective reward redistribution. We examine that semantically generated code from LLM can bridge linguistic knowledge and symbolic latent rewards, as it is executable for symbolic objects. Meanwhile, we design latent reward self-verification to increase the stability and reliability of LLM inference. Theoretically, reward-irrelevant redundancy elimination in the latent reward benefits RL performance from more accurate reward estimation. Extensive experimental results witness that LaRe (i) achieves superior temporal credit assignment to SOTA methods, (ii) excels in allocating contributions among multiple agents, and (iii) outperforms policies trained with ground truth rewards for certain tasks.

Large Language Model (LLM)-based search agents trained with reinforcement learning (RL) have significantly improved the performance of knowledge-intensive tasks. However, existing methods encounter critical challenges in long-horizon credit assignment: (i) Reward Sparsity, where models receive only outcome feedback without step-level guidance to differentiate action quality; (ii) Isolated Credit, where credit is assigned to steps independently, failing to capture sequential dependencies; and (iii) Distributional Shift, where rewards are estimated on templates that deviate from the model's natural generative distribution. To address these issues, we propose Pivot-Based Credit Assignment (PiCA), a novel step reward mechanism that reformulates the search trajectory as a sequential process of cumulative search progress. Unlike prior isolated step rewards, PiCA defines process rewards as success probabilities dependent on the historical context based on Potential-Based Reward Shaping (PBRS). This approach identifies pivot steps, which comprise target golden sub-queries and sub-answers derived from historical trajectories, as information peaks that significantly boost the likelihood of a correct final answer. By anchoring these step rewards to the final task objective, PiCA provides dense, pivot-aware and trajectory-dependent guidance while maintaining distributional consistency. Extensive experiments show that PiCA outperforms existing strong baselines across seven knowledge-intensive QA benchmarks, achieving 15.2% and 2.2% improvements for 3B and 7B models. The consistent performance gains across various models show PiCA's robust generalization. The code is available at https://github.com/novdream/PiCA.

Data-centric curation pipelines frequently rely on model confidence scores to flag and filter noisy or mislabeled training instances. Evaluating this filtering convention on a large-scale consumer lending sample (LendingClub, N = 1,344,936) uncovers an underlying demographic asymmetry: high-income defaulters are disproportionately classified as label noise relative to low-income defaulters (Cramer's V approximately 0.03-0.07). Re-examining this behavior through the lens of equal opportunity [Hardt et al., 2016] reveals a far more severe discrepancy: a 16.86 percentage point gap in true positive rate (recall) between high- and low-income borrowers who ultimately defaulted. Implementing a sequential feature-blinding methodology allows us to isolate the drivers of this disparity across three distinct mechanisms: (1) direct reliance on self-reported applicant income; (2) algorithmic absorption of upstream institutional bias encoded within origination interest rates; and (3) a residual disparity (3.55 percentage points in cross-validation; 2.56 percentage points on a held-out test partition, Z = -4.04, p < 0.0001) that remains even after purging both income and interest rates from the model. Out-of-sample signed SHAP valuations demonstrate that this residual gap is maintained by structural proxies, most notably loan amount and home ownership status. These empirical findings show that simply blinding an algorithm to sensitive attributes fails to ensure fairness when institutional pricing decisions and behavioral proxy variables collectively reconstruct the omitted signals. We outline the practical implications of these findings for auditing data-centric AI workflows within regulated financial institutions.

The temporal credit assignment problem is a central challenge in Reinforcement Learning (RL), concerned with attributing the appropriate influence to each actions in a trajectory for their ability to achieve a goal. However, when feedback is delayed and sparse, the learning signal is poor, and action evaluation becomes harder. Canonical solutions, such as reward shaping and options, require extensive domain knowledge and manual intervention, limiting their scalability and applicability. In this work, we lay the foundations for Credit Assignment with Language Models (CALM), a novel approach that leverages Large Language Models (LLMs) to automate credit assignment via reward shaping and options discovery. CALM uses LLMs to decompose a task into elementary subgoals and assess the achievement of these subgoals in state-action transitions. Every time an option terminates, a subgoal is achieved, and CALM provides an auxiliary reward. This additional reward signal can enhance the learning process when the task reward is sparse and delayed without the need for human-designed rewards. We provide a preliminary evaluation of CALM using a dataset of human-annotated demonstrations from MiniHack, suggesting that LLMs can be effective in assigning credit in zero-shot settings, without examples or LLM fine-tuning. Our preliminary results indicate that the knowledge of LLMs is a promising prior for credit assignment in RL, facilitating the transfer of human knowledge into value functions.

When training large language models with reinforcement learning, terminal rewards provide little guidance about which steps matter. Common methods for assigning step credit overlook that work built on uncorrected mistakes is wasted while independent work remains valid. With only a final success/failure reward, every step in a failed episode has zero total future reward, even when it made progress. We propose Dependency-Aware Reward Shaping (DARS), which represents task progress as predicates linked by prerequisite relations and assigns step-level credit over the dependency graph. An annotator marks which predicates each step verifies, invalidates, or repairs. Verified predicates are discounted according to graph distance from the nearest broken prerequisite, while independent predicates are unaffected. Repairs update these weights based on any errors that remain; invalidated predicates need re-verification to regain credit. A fixed potential converts these annotations into signed per-step rewards. A common reward and annotation interface allows DARS to integrate with a range of reasoning and agentic training methods, such as GiGPO and ARPO/AEPO, without changing their rollout strategies or optimizers. Across five task families and models from 1.5B to 8B, DARS improves success by up to 10 points over GiGPO trained with the same budget and harness (ALFWorld), raises the WebShop task score and Search-R1 QA accuracy, complements AEPO's entropy-based training on AIME24/25 with a Python interpreter, and exceeds OmniOPD in controlled tool-free reasoning comparisons at 1.7B and 4B. Ablations show that step-level credit, dependency attenuation, and graph topology each contribute. On ALFWorld, a distilled 8B annotator matches the API annotator, enabling DARS to run efficiently without a frontier judge. Code is available at https://github.com/JianhuiWei7/DARS.

How can a population of agents self-orchestrate and self-adapt into stronger collective intelligence without centralized control? Inspired by Friedrich Hayek's economic theory of decentralized coordination in markets, we study this question through an agent economy in which agents compete via auctions for the right to act, exchange payments, and accumulate wealth from environmental rewards. These simple economic signals induce decentralized credit assignment, driving planning without global orchestration or explicit communication protocols. The population evolves through economic selection: effective agents accumulate wealth and are mutated via exploitation, while ineffective ones go bankrupt and are replaced via exploration. We show that, initialized with weak agents, the economy produces emergent multi-step reasoning strategies and outperforms stronger monolithic baselines across five agentic tasks, including mathematical reasoning, financial research, scientific research, accelerator design, and distributed-system optimization. We further provide theoretical insights into how economic dynamics shape agent behaviors, linking local incentives to long-term global performance. Our results suggest a new path to multi-agent intelligence: rather than engineering coordination, we can design decentralized incentive structures under which it automatically emerges.

Terms and conditions for online shopping websites often contain terms that can have significant financial consequences for customers. Despite their impact, there is currently no comprehensive understanding of the types and potential risks associated with unfavorable financial terms. Furthermore, there are no publicly available detection systems or datasets to systematically identify or mitigate these terms. In this paper, we take the first steps toward solving this problem with three key contributions. First, we introduce TermMiner, an automated data collection and topic modeling pipeline to understand the landscape of unfavorable financial terms. Second, we create ShopTC-100K, a dataset of terms and conditions from shopping websites in the Tranco top 100K list, comprising 1.8 million terms from 8,251 websites. Consequently, we develop a taxonomy of 22 types from 4 categories of unfavorable financial terms -- spanning purchase, post-purchase, account termination, and legal aspects. Third, we build TermLens, an automated detector that uses Large Language Models (LLMs) to identify unfavorable financial terms. Fine-tuned on an annotated dataset, TermLens achieves an F1 score of 94.6\% and a false positive rate of 2.3\% using GPT-4o. When applied to shopping websites from the Tranco top 100K, we find that 42.06\% of these sites contain at least one unfavorable financial term, with such terms being more prevalent on less popular websites. Case studies further highlight the financial risks and customer dissatisfaction associated with unfavorable financial terms, as well as the limitations of existing ecosystem defenses.

Long-horizon agentic tasks pose a fundamental credit assignment challenge for outcome-base reinforcement learning: trajectory-level rewards verify final correctness but provide limited guidance on which intermediate reasoning steps or tool interactions contribute to the outcome. The difficulty is especially pronounced in multi-turn search agents, where successful trajectories may contain misleading actions and failed trajectories may contain valuable evidence-gathering steps. We propose PBSD (Privileged Bayesian Self-Distillation), a Bayes-calibrated self-distillation method for fine-grained credit assignment under sparse final rewards. PBSD measures trajectory quality through the posterior-to-prior probability ratio of the verified answer and applies Bayes' rule to convert this hard-to-estimate answer-side ratio into a tractable likelihood ratio between a standard student model and a privileged answer-conditioned teacher model. Autoregressive decomposition of this Bayesian evidence score yields turn-level signals that identify whether each intermediate turn supports or undermines the verified outcome. Consequently, PBSD provides a principled and elegant reweighting scheme that transforms sparse outcome supervision into Bayes-calibrated turn-level credit signals, while remaining fully compatible with standard policy optimization. Experiments demonstrate that PBSD consistently enhances performance across both in-domain and out-of-domain settings, and effectively transfers knowledge from short-context training to long-context inference, suggesting that its fine-grained credit assignment mechanism facilitates more effective policy learning and yields improved generalization.

This paper introduces a novel Hamiltonian-inspired neural network approach to credit scoring, designed to address the challenges of class imbalance and out-of-time (OOT) prediction in financial risk management. Drawing from concepts in Hamiltonian mechanics, we develop a symplectic optimizer and a new loss function to capture the complex dynamics of credit risk evolution. Using the Freddie Mac Single-Family Loan-Level Dataset, we evaluate our model's performance against other machine learning approaches. Our method shows superior discriminative power in OOT scenarios, as measured by the Area Under the Curve (AUC), indicating better ranking ability and robustness to class imbalance. The Hamiltonian-inspired approach shows particular strength in maintaining consistent performance between in-sample and OOT test sets, suggesting improved generalization to future, unseen data. These findings suggest that physics-inspired techniques offer a promising direction for developing more robust and reliable credit scoring models, particularly in uncertain economic situations.

In this article, we consider the problem of a bank's loan portfolio in the context of liquidity risk, while allowing for the limited liability protection enjoyed by the bank. Accordingly, we construct a novel loan portfolio model with limited liability, while maintaining a threshold level of haircut in the portfolio. For the constructed three-time step loan portfolio, at the initial time, the bank raises capital via debt and equity, investing the same in several classes of loans, while at the final time, the bank either meets its liabilities or becomes insolvent. At the intermediate time step, a fraction of the deposits are withdrawn, resulting in liquidation of some of the bank's assets. The liquidated portfolio is designed with the goal of minimizing the liquidation cost. Our theoretical results show that model with the haircut constraint leads to lesser liquidity risk, as compared to the scenario of no haircut constraint being imposed. Finally, we present numerical results to illustrate the theoretical results which were obtained.

Late payments and limited working capital propagate liquidity stress across supply chains, especially among small and medium sized enterprises. This paper develops a path enabled clearing framework for invoice backed trade networks and evaluates Byppay, a local compensation procedure based on repeated three party reductions. Unlike cycle restricted netting, which can clear only obligations embedded in directed cycles, Byppay can also reduce obligations along open chains while preserving node net positions on a combined post settlement state composed of the residual invoice graph and a generated settlement instruction layer. The paper contributes by formalizing this framework for invoice networks, defining a comparable post settlement metric system, specifying deterministic benchmark procedures, and assessing them on the same real invoice graphs. The empirical analysis uses the 2021 IMI invoice corpus of 133,191 invoices totaling EUR 19.67 billion. On the annual aggregate, the cycle restricted Netting benchmark achieves EUR 4.13 billion of debt relief, or 20.99%, whereas Byppay achieves EUR 10.60 billion, or 53.87%. In the metric system adopted here, gross obligation reduction and liquidity relief are both measured on post settlement payable mass and are therefore identical for both procedures. The results show that path enabled local compensation reaches a substantially larger reduction fixed point than a cycle restricted benchmark on the same invoice graphs, while also supporting a deployable execution logic compatible with selective disclosure and distributed coordination.

A service system may use the same categories to assign standard allocations and to check whether each service is fulfilled. Finer categories can match individual needs more closely, but they divide the observations available for monitoring. We study this conflict for a fixed menu from which participants select by declaring a category, with fulfilment assessed from each category's aggregate outcomes during a fixed period. We relate allocation loss to variation in preferred allocations within categories and identify conditions under which aggregate observations preserve the verification performance of individual records. For nested refinements under stated utility and observation assumptions, an allocation-loss tolerance and a per-category detection target define a feasibility band. Categories must be fine enough to provide suitable allocations but sufficiently populated to support verification. A source-dependent lower bound on declaration entropy and a minimum contributor requirement give necessary information and population constraints. For an explicit finite population with quadratic utility and binary service outcomes, we prove the exact feasible range across all categorical designs and exhibit designs attaining the information lower bound at specified tolerances. The results provide conditions for choosing categories jointly for allocation and verification.

The development of frontier models is commonly perceived to be the exclusive remit of a small number of heavily funded players, creating an information, economic and power asymmetry between developers and the diverse user base of modern AI. Recent public discourse acknowledges this concern, calling for SovereignAI (an organisation's capability to independently build, deploy and govern AI use), but offers little concrete advice on how this can be achieved in the short term under a diversity of funding settings. We argue that frontier performance is achievable by a wide range of institutions through Continual Learning on readily available open-weight models. Unlike limited approaches such as small-scale fine-tuning, prompt engineering, or tool-augmentation of a frozen model, our approach exploits a modern mid- & post-training stack while introducing safeguards that preserve both plasticity and stability at each stage, making the minimal number of high-impact interventions on the parameters. This yields gains comparable to those typically seen across multiple successive model generations, at compute and personnel budgets substantially lower than commonly thought, making ownership of large parts of the SovereignAI stack (model, tool infrastructure, values & data privacy) viable for far more actors. We demonstrate this with Thomson, a general-purpose frontier model trained with an enhanced focus on high-stakes professional work. Thomson performs competitively with recent frontier models across agentic tasks, safety, legal, tax & multilingualism, and large-scale Deep Research. Evaluations show a distinctive π-shaped pattern: distinct improvements across a wide range of capabilities, including those not explicitly targeted, while almost completely eliminating the forgetting problem common to narrow domain adaptation.

In pursuit of participatory budgeting (PB) outcomes with broader fairness guarantees, we initiate the study of lotteries over discrete PB outcomes. As the projects have heterogeneous costs, the amount spent may not be equal ex ante and ex post. To address this, we develop a technique to bound the amount by which the ex-post spend differs from the ex-ante spend -- the property is termed budget balanced up to one project (BB1). With respect to fairness, we take a best-of-both-worlds perspective, seeking outcomes that are both ex-ante and ex-post fair. Towards this goal, we initiate a study of ex-ante fairness properties in PB, including Individual Fair Share (IFS), Unanimous Fair Share (UFS) and their stronger variants, as well as Group Fair Share (GFS). We show several incompatibility results between these ex-ante fairness notions and existing ex-post concepts based on justified representation. One of our main contributions is a randomized algorithm which simultaneously satisfies ex-ante Strong UFS, ex-post full justified representation (FJR) and ex-post BB1 for PB with binary utilities.

We develop a data-driven information-theoretic framework for sharp partial identification of causal effects under unmeasured confounding. Existing approaches often rely on restrictive assumptions, such as bounded or discrete outcomes; require external inputs (for example, instrumental variables, proxies, or user-specified sensitivity parameters); necessitate full structural causal model specifications; or focus solely on population-level averages while neglecting covariate-conditional effects. We overcome all four limitations simultaneously by establishing novel information-theoretic, data-driven divergence bounds. Our key theoretical contribution shows that the f-divergence between the observational distribution P(Y | A = a, X = x) and the interventional distribution P(Y | do(A = a), X = x) is upper bounded by a function of the propensity score alone. This result enables sharp partial identification of conditional causal effects directly from observational data, without requiring external sensitivity parameters, auxiliary variables, full structural specifications, or outcome boundedness assumptions. For practical implementation, we develop a semiparametric estimator satisfying Neyman orthogonality (Chernozhukov et al., 2018), which ensures root-n consistent inference even when nuisance functions are estimated via flexible machine learning methods. Simulation studies and real-world data applications, implemented in the GitHub repository (https://github.com/yonghanjung/Information-Theretic-Bounds), demonstrate that our framework provides tight and valid causal bounds across a wide range of data-generating processes.

Reinforcement learning (RL) post-training has enabled newer capabilities in models, such as agentic tool-use for search. However, these models struggle primarily due to limitations with sparse outcome-based rewards and a lack of training data that encapsulates questions of differing hardness, which results in models not performing deeper searches with tools to collect evidence for question-answering. To address these limitations, we introduce S^3-R1 (Synthetic data and stabilized Search R1), a framework that couples a data-centric approach with denser learning signals. We first develop a synthetic generation and curation pipeline that programmatically derives diverse, multi-hop questions from existing documents. This pipeline incorporates a retrieval-based verification step to specifically isolate questions of intermediate difficulty. We then pair this expanded training set with a reward structure that evaluates both intermediate search quality and the correctness of the final answer. This setup directly mitigates the credit assignment problems inherent to sparse rewards. Our evaluations show that S^3-R1 outperforms existing baselines by learning more effective search and synthesis strategies, yielding up to a 10% improvement in robust generalization on out-of-domain datasets.

We analyze downstream courtroom governance in Philadelphia eviction cases using 755,004 Municipal Court landlord--tenant records filed from 1969 through 2022. Post-filing case processing is organized by repeated courtroom relationships, judge and tenant-attorney regimes, reusable agreement templates, and repeated team-property units. Among both-represented, both-attorney-named cases, 58.2% involve a plaintiff-side and tenant-side attorney pair that had appeared against one another in the prior year, and greater prior pair exposure predicts lower default, higher judgment-by-agreement, and higher served-writ rates. Judge-linked cases display statistically distinct baseline outcome, continuance, fee, and award regimes; tenant-attorney identity explains meaningful variance in both case outcomes and agreement terms. Settlement text is highly standardized: reusable templates explain strictness, waiver, lockout-trigger, payment-plan, deadline, and time-is-essence language far more strongly than raw attorney identity. Monetary burden concentrates in repeated plaintiff-attorney-property units. Assignment-cell support and balance audits indicate that judge-linked evidence reflects institutional heterogeneity rather than a clean judge lottery, and judge--triad interactions are not estimable in this docket. Eviction court emerges as a repeated institutional field that organizes bargaining, text, debt, and enforcement after cases enter the courtroom pipeline.

Current critic-free RL methods for large reasoning models suffer from severe inefficiency when training on positive homogeneous prompts (where all rollouts are correct), resulting in waste of rollouts due to zero advantage estimates. We introduce a radically simple yet powerful solution to Mine intrinsic mastery (Miner), that repurposes the policy's intrinsic uncertainty as a self-supervised reward signal, with no external supervision, auxiliary models, or additional inference cost. Our method pioneers two key innovations: (1) a token-level focal credit assignment mechanism that dynamically amplifies gradients on critical uncertain tokens while suppressing overconfident ones, and (2) adaptive advantage calibration to seamlessly integrate intrinsic and verifiable rewards. Evaluated across six reasoning benchmarks on Qwen3-4B and Qwen3-8B base models, Miner achieves state-of-the-art performance among the other four algorithms, yielding up to 4.58 absolute gains in Pass@1 and 6.66 gains in Pass@K compared to GRPO. Comparison with other methods targeted at exploration enhancement further discloses the superiority of the two newly proposed innovations. This demonstrates that latent uncertainty exploitation is both necessary and sufficient for efficient and scalable RL training of reasoning models.

Conventional models of matching markets assume that monetary transfers can clear markets by compensating for utility differentials. However, empirical patterns show that such transfers often fail to close structural preference gaps. This paper introduces a market microstructure framework that models matching decisions as a limit order book system with rigid bid ask spreads. Individual preferences are represented by a latent preference state matrix, where the spread between an agent's internal ask price (the unconditional maximum) and the market's best bid (the reachable maximum) creates a structural liquidity constraint. We establish a Threshold Impossibility Theorem showing that linear compensation cannot close these spreads unless it induces a categorical identity shift. A dynamic discrete choice execution model further demonstrates that matches occur only when the market to book ratio crosses a time decaying liquidity threshold, analogous to order execution under inventory pressure. Numerical experiments validate persistent slippage, regional invariance of preference orderings, and high tier zero spread executions. The model provides a unified microstructure explanation for matching failures, compensation inefficiency, and post match regret in illiquid order driven environments.

A semantic decision engine such as Jev can return a valid answer and still miss a network deadline, select an infeasible action or leave the service unverified. We systematize 139 paper families by decision interface, execution path and check ownership. Fifty families claim that their engine fits a control loop or time budget, but only four support the claim with matched measurement. Across all 139, four report deadline attainment. The gap concentrates where the decision has no deterministic computation step. Those 72 families make 22 of the claims, none supported, and name a coverage owner in only two. Bounded tests under one event model show that each gap can reverse an admission verdict. A decision that meets a 10 s budget for every isolated request meets it for none once decisions queue ahead of replayed execution times. The same engine passes one coverage check and fails another. We derive a minimum reporting record, design rules and a research agenda for admitting decision engines to control loops.

We reanalyze the spectral lag data for GRB 160625B using frequentist inference in order to constrain the energy scale (E_{QG}) of Lorentz Invariance Violation (LIV). For this purpose, we use profile likelihood to deal with the astrophysical nuisance parameters. This is in contrast to Bayesian inference implemented in previous works, where marginalization was carried out over the nuisance parameters. We show that with profile likelihood, we do not find a global minimum for chi^2 as a function of E_{QG} below the Planck scale for both linear and quadratic models of LIV, whereas bounded credible intervals were previously obtained using Bayesian inference. Therefore, we can set one-sided lower limits in a straightforward manner. We find that E_{QG} geq 2.55 times 10^{16} GeV and E_{QG} geq 1.85 times 10^7 GeV at 95\% c.l., for linear and quadratic LIV, respectively. Therefore, this is the first proof-of-principles application of profile likelihood method to the analysis of GRB spectral lag data to constrain LIV.

We study the incentivized information acquisition problem, where a principal hires an agent to gather information on her behalf. Such a problem is modeled as a Stackelberg game between the principal and the agent, where the principal announces a scoring rule that specifies the payment, and then the agent then chooses an effort level that maximizes her own profit and reports the information. We study the online setting of such a problem from the principal's perspective, i.e., designing the optimal scoring rule by repeatedly interacting with the strategic agent. We design a provably sample efficient algorithm that tailors the UCB algorithm (Auer et al., 2002) to our model, which achieves a sublinear T^{2/3}-regret after T iterations. Our algorithm features a delicate estimation procedure for the optimal profit of the principal, and a conservative correction scheme that ensures the desired agent's actions are incentivized. Furthermore, a key feature of our regret bound is that it is independent of the number of states of the environment.

Paper 1 of this research programme develops a resolution-aware risk-design framework for the simplest event-linked perpetual: a contract whose underlying tracks a single binary prediction-market probability through resolution. The instrument class is broader. Variants span conditional probabilities P(A|B), spreads p^A - p^B, weighted baskets sum w_i p^(i), derivatives on variance or entropy of the probability process, contracts on liquidity itself, perpetual-on-expiring-event roll structures, and funding-only derivatives with no settlement. Each variant inherits some framework components from the single-market binary case and requires its own design adaptations. This paper develops a formal taxonomy of seven pure-form canonical variants beyond the probability-index perpetual of Paper 1, organised along four orthogonal design axes: underlying geometry, temporal structure, settlement structure, and venue composition. The list is not exhaustive; combinations are not treated separately. For each variant we provide a precise payoff definition; an inheritance map identifying which Paper 1 components carry over, are modified, or fail; variant-specific design constraints; microstructure properties; empirical evaluability on the PMXT v2 archive; and limitations. Notable findings: the conditional variant admits a candidate non-portability proposition (denominator instability as the conditioning event becomes improbable); the spread variant requires a three-channel decomposition of resolution risk; the volatility/entropy variant avoids random binary terminal-collapse but introduces estimator-convention and entropy-decay issues; the basket variant requires multi-period jump-aware margin whose aggregation is correlation-dependent. The paper is theoretical primarily; it specifies how demonstrative time series can be constructed and provides evaluability criteria to guide future work.

Reinforcement Learning (RL) has enabled Large Language Models (LLMs) to achieve remarkable reasoning in domains like mathematics and coding, where verifiable rewards provide clear signals. However, extending this paradigm to financial decision is challenged by the market's stochastic nature: rewards are verifiable but inherently noisy, causing standard RL to degenerate into reward hacking. To address this, we propose Trade-R1, a model training framework that bridges verifiable rewards to stochastic environments via process-level reasoning verification. Our key innovation is a verification method that transforms the problem of evaluating reasoning over lengthy financial documents into a structured Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) task. We construct a triangular consistency metric, assessing pairwise alignment between retrieved evidence, reasoning chains, and decisions to serve as a validity filter for noisy market returns. We explore two reward integration strategies: Fixed-effect Semantic Reward (FSR) for stable alignment signals, and Dynamic-effect Semantic Reward (DSR) for coupled magnitude optimization. Experiments on different country asset selection demonstrate that our paradigm reduces reward hacking, with DSR achieving superior cross-market generalization while maintaining the highest reasoning consistency.

In many social-science research tasks, such as economics, LLM-based agents must produce outputs for which no cheap, task-complete, machine-readable correctness signal exists. This creates a distinctive reliability problem for multi-agent systems: how should generation, critique, coordination, and human judgment be organized when no component can certify the final result? We address this problem through pAI-Econ-claude, a gated, human-in-the-loop multi-agent architecture for AI-assisted economic theory development. Agents coordinate through a shared workspace of inspectable intermediate records; specialized gates diagnose targeted failure modes and recommend loopbacks without certifying correctness; and human checkpoints retain authority over decisions that are costly to reverse. We evaluate the architecture on five matched economic-theory tasks against an ungated baseline. Two evaluators blinded to configuration agreed on all five pairwise rankings, preferring the gated architecture in four tasks and the baseline in one. Mean failure severity fell from 1.58 to 1.16, while overall usefulness rose from 2.60 to 3.10. The largest observed gain occurred when a reality check rejected a false market-structure premise and a proof review prompted revision of a false welfare claim. The negative case shows that scaffolding can also compress an economically important mechanism too aggressively. The results support a bounded claim: gated oversight improves the auditability of AI-assisted economic theory without substituting for formal verification, and the allocation of irreversible human judgment is a more informative design variable than pure agent autonomy. The workflow is publicly available at https://github.com/maxwell2732/pAI-Econ-claude.

Long-horizon agents increasingly reuse their KV cache as memory: a serving system keeps a subset of cached entries and drops the rest. Eviction and episodic-memory schemes therefore rest on a premise rarely tested directly, that a retained event is still informative once the observations that produced it are gone. We test it by omitting one earlier observation from what is served, across otherwise identical agent histories. Among items sensitive to that observation, the answer overwhelmingly follows the omitted value, though no served span says which value is correct. We call this semantic materialization: a downstream event's cached rows act as an independently servable view of computation whose inputs are gone. It can also be written on purpose. A deliberately phrased, answer-free event raises donor-aligned recovery from 6% to 51% on Qwen3-8B without ever naming the value, whereas passively harvesting natural mentions from long-term dialog yields no detected advantage. What such a row carries is specific and bounded. Compact state survives, larger payloads decay toward chance, and whether a construction writes at all turns on phrasing rather than on meaning alone, so two phrasings the model comprehends equally well can diverge sharply. The result is a memory contract for sparse event-KV serving: what to write, where it lands, and what survives once the source is gone. For anyone who evicts the corollary is that dropping a source event and observing no accuracy loss does not show the source was unnecessary.

We introduce APEX-Accounting, a benchmark built by Mercor in partnership with Ramp, to assess whether frontier models can do the real work of accountants. Tasks include reconciling accounts, accruing expenses, posting transactions, and producing reports. The private eval set comprises 160 tasks, split across 10 worlds. Each world contains an accounting system, as well as spreadsheets, PDFs, and other files. Every task was authored and solved by experts in accounting and bookkeeping, who also wrote grading rubrics. Across nine frontier models, Claude-Fable-5 (Max) leads with 56.4% Mean Criteria@3, ahead of Muse-Spark-1.1 (xHigh) at 52.6%. No model scores more than 2.6% Pass^8 (GPT-5.6-Sol (Max+Pro)) and the highest Pass@8 is 21.5% (Muse-Spark-1.1 (xHigh)). We experiment with increasing the token budget from 1 to 50 and observe an instance of Simpson's paradox: scores increase as the token budget increases but within a given budget-constrained harness, scores are lower on tasks where the model spends more tokens. As APEX-Accounting is a closed benchmark, leaderboard evals can be run for any frontier model on request.

In settings where labeled verifiable training data is the binding constraint, each checked example should be allocated carefully. The standard practice is to use this data directly on the model that will be deployed, for example by running GRPO on the deployment student. We argue that this is often an inefficient allocation because it overlooks a reward-density principle: sparse sequence-level reward should train models where exploration is productive, while dense token-level teacher reward should be used where the aim is to compress behavior into a smaller model. In this view, GRPO-style sparse RL and OPD-style dense teacher supervision are not separate recipes; they are different reward-density regimes. The allocation rule is simple: use scarce labeled training data upstream on the strongest model that can turn it into reward-shaped behavior, then transfer that behavior downstream as dense supervision. We evaluate this rule on verifiable math with Qwen3 and Llama models. At fixed Qwen3-1.7B deployment-student size, an RL-improved 8B teacher distilled through the dense bridge outperforms direct GRPO on the same student, while transfer from the same teacher before RL underperforms. The bridge is important: a forward-KL warmup on teacher rollouts followed by OPD on student rollouts is consistently strongest on MATH before any post-bridge student-side sparse RL, and also gives the best pre-Stage~3 AIME endpoints for the canonical 8B/14B teachers. The bridge also makes later student-side sparse RL effective: GRPO that is weak on a cold student lifts MATH from 75.4% to 78.5% after the bridge and outperforms a matched replay control by 2.8 points. The operational principal is to avoid using scarce labeled data on the least prepared policy: use sparse reward for teacher-side discovery, dense transfer for student compression, and student-side sparse reward only after the bridge.

Token-level credit assignment remains a key obstacle for reinforcement learning (RL) in large language models (LLMs), where RL recipes typically treat all tokens equally, failing to distinguish decisive reasoning steps from routine formatting or fluent filler. Recent attempts leverage model-internal signals to assign finer-grained credit, but these are often point-wise heuristics that ignore the global structure of information propagation. We propose FlowTracer, an RL framework that traces answer-targeted reasoning flow on an attention-induced directed acyclic graph in which nodes correspond to tokens and edge capacities come from aggregated attention weights and derives token credit from this global structure. The edge capacities are reweighted to retain only the influence that can reach the answer region, while enforcing local flow conservation so intermediate tokens neither lose nor gain effective mass due to path length or irrelevant branches. On this graph, FlowTracer extracts an information-flow backbone connecting the question to the answer and scores tokens by flow throughput, revealing high-impact hubs and aggregation checkpoints that mediate long-range dependencies. These derived importances are used to shape token-level rewards, enabling learning signals to focus precisely on the tokens that route information toward (or away from) correct answers and delivering consistent performance gains across a range of reasoning tasks.

LLM-as-judge is essential for evaluating open-ended text and steering post-training, yet improving the judge itself typically relies on expensive annotations, reward models, or distillation from stronger teachers. In this work, we eliminate external gold supervision from the RL training reward: the model's own evaluative capability generates learning signals for its optimization -- a closed-loop setting of bounded recursive self-improvement (RSI) termed Recursive Self-Evaluation (RecurSE). We study two central questions: when can self-improvement occur, and when must it stop? First, RecurSE pairs a trainable judge evaluating candidate responses under per-rule rubrics (Pass 1) with a synchronized policy-copy checker that audits the judge's reasoning against meta-rubrics to supply a scalar process reward (Pass 2). To enable learning, interface decoupling structurally isolates the checker's scalar score from the judge's verdict tokens, eliminating a degenerative token-copying shortcut that inflates self-assigned rewards. Second, because unanchored recursive learning is inherently bounded, Pairwise Advantage Validity (PAV) serves as an unbiased validation monitor that jointly tracks judge accuracy and checker fidelity to reliably identify the optimal early-stopping window. Across Qwen3.5-9B, Gemma-4-E4B-it, and Qwen3.6-27B, RecurSE achieves consistent generalization gains across held-out medical, pairwise, summarization, and professional benchmarks. Ablations demonstrate that synchronized judge-checker co-evolution outperforms frozen checkers, external meta-judges, self-consistency, and scaled teacher distillation. Furthermore, preference pairs curated by our judge effectively enhance downstream policy alignment. Bounded RSI for LLM-as-judge is thus viable when self-produced reward validity is explicitly decoupled and monitored.

Ensuring sufficient exploration is a central challenge when training meta-reinforcement learning (meta-RL) agents to solve novel environments. Conventional solutions to the exploration-exploitation dilemma inject explicit incentives such as randomization, uncertainty bonuses, or intrinsic rewards to encourage exploration. In this work, we hypothesize that an agent trained solely to maximize a greedy (exploitation-only) objective can nonetheless exhibit emergent exploratory behavior, provided three conditions are met: (1) Recurring Environmental Structure, where the environment features repeatable regularities that allow past experience to inform future choices; (2) Agent Memory, enabling the agent to retain and utilize historical interaction data; and (3) Long-Horizon Credit Assignment, where learning propagates returns over a time frame sufficient for the delayed benefits of exploration to inform current decisions. Through experiments in stochastic multi-armed bandits and temporally extended gridworlds, we observe that, when both structure and memory are present, a policy trained on a strictly greedy objective exhibits information-seeking exploratory behavior. We further demonstrate, through controlled ablations, that emergent exploration vanishes if either environmental structure or agent memory is absent (Conditions 1 & 2). Surprisingly, removing long-horizon credit assignment (Condition 3) does not always prevent emergent exploration-a result we attribute to the pseudo-Thompson Sampling effect. These findings suggest that, under the right prerequisites, exploration and exploitation need not be treated as orthogonal objectives but can emerge from a unified reward-maximization process.

Evolving borrower behaviors, shifting economic conditions, and changing regulatory landscapes continuously reshape the data distributions underlying modern credit-scoring systems. Conventional explainability techniques, such as SHAP, assume static data and fixed background distributions, making their explanations unstable and potentially unfair when concept drift occurs. This study addresses that challenge by developing adaptive explanation frameworks that recalibrate interpretability and fairness in dynamically evolving credit models. Using a multi-year credit dataset, we integrate predictive modeling via XGBoost with three adaptive SHAP variants: (A) per-slice explanation reweighting that adjusts for feature distribution shifts, (B) drift-aware SHAP rebaselining with sliding-window background samples, and (C) online surrogate calibration using incremental Ridge regression. Each method is benchmarked against static SHAP explanations using metrics of predictive performance (AUC, F1), directional and rank stability (cosine, Kendall tau), and fairness (demographic parity and recalibration). Results show that adaptive methods, particularly rebaselined and surrogate-based explanations, substantially improve temporal stability and reduce disparate impact across demographic groups without degrading predictive accuracy. Robustness tests, including counterfactual perturbations, background sensitivity analysis, and proxy-variable detection, confirm the resilience of adaptive explanations under real-world drift conditions. These findings establish adaptive explainability as a practical mechanism for sustaining transparency, accountability, and ethical reliability in data-driven credit systems, and more broadly, in any domain where decision models evolve with population change.

Despite accounting for 96.1% of all businesses in Malaysia, access to financing remains one of the most persistent challenges faced by Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs). Newly established businesses are often excluded from formal credit markets as traditional underwriting approaches rely heavily on credit bureau data. This study investigates the potential of bank statement data as an alternative data source for credit assessment to promote financial inclusion in emerging markets. First, we propose a cash flow-based underwriting pipeline where we utilize bank statement data for end-to-end data extraction and machine learning credit scoring. Second, we introduce a novel dataset of 611 loan applicants from a Malaysian consulting firm. Third, we develop and evaluate credit scoring models based on application information and bank transaction-derived features. Empirical results demonstrate that incorporating bank statement features yields substantial improvements, with our best model achieving an AUROC of 0.806 on validation set, representing a 24.6% improvement over models using application information only. Finally, we will release the anonymized bank transaction dataset to facilitate further research on MSME financial inclusion within Malaysia's emerging economy.

We study the problem of designing mechanisms for information acquisition scenarios. This setting models strategic interactions between an uniformed receiver and a set of informed senders. In our model the senders receive information about the underlying state of nature and communicate their observation (either truthfully or not) to the receiver, which, based on this information, selects an action. Our goal is to design mechanisms maximizing the receiver's utility while incentivizing the senders to report truthfully their information. First, we provide an algorithm that efficiently computes an optimal incentive compatible (IC) mechanism. Then, we focus on the online problem in which the receiver sequentially interacts in an unknown game, with the objective of minimizing the cumulative regret w.r.t. the optimal IC mechanism, and the cumulative violation of the incentive compatibility constraints. We investigate two different online scenarios, i.e., the full and bandit feedback settings. For the full feedback problem, we propose an algorithm that guarantees mathcal O(sqrt T) regret and violation, while for the bandit feedback setting we present an algorithm that attains mathcal O(T^{alpha}) regret and mathcal O(T^{1-alpha/2}) violation for any alphain[1/2, 1]. Finally, we complement our results providing a tight lower bound.

Reinforcement learning drives recent advances in LLM reasoning and agentic capabilities, yet current approaches struggle with both exploration and exploitation. Exploration suffers from low success rates on difficult tasks and high costs of repeated rollouts from scratch. Exploitation suffers from coarse credit assignment and training instability: Trajectory-level rewards penalize valid prefixes for later errors, and failure-dominated groups overwhelm the few positive signals, leaving optimization without constructive direction. To this end, we propose R^3L, Reflect-then-Retry Reinforcement Learning with Language-Guided Exploration, Pivotal Credit, and Positive Amplification. To synthesize high-quality trajectories, R^3L shifts from stochastic sampling to active synthesis via reflect-then-retry, leveraging language feedback to diagnose errors, transform failed attempts into successful ones, and reduce rollout costs by restarting from identified failure points. With errors diagnosed and localized, Pivotal Credit Assignment updates only the diverging suffix where contrastive signals exist, excluding the shared prefix from gradient update. Since failures dominate on difficult tasks and reflect-then-retry produces off-policy data, risking training instability, Positive Amplification upweights successful trajectories to ensure positive signals guide the optimization process. Experiments on agentic and reasoning tasks demonstrate 5\% to 52\% relative improvements over baselines while maintaining training stability. Our code is released at https://github.com/shiweijiezero/R3L.

Reinforcement learning from verifiable rewards (RLVR) has emerged as a central technique for improving the reasoning capabilities of large language models. Despite its effectiveness, how response-level rewards translate into token-level probability changes remains poorly understood. We introduce a discriminator view of RLVR updates, showing that the policy-gradient update direction implicitly acts as a linear discriminator over token-gradient vectors and thereby determines which token probabilities are increased or decreased during learning. Under standard sequence-level RLVR, this discriminator is constructed from positive- and negative-side centroids formed by advantage-weighted averaging of token-gradient vectors. However, such centroid construction can be dominated by shared high-frequency patterns, such as formatting tokens, diluting sparse yet discriminative directions that better distinguish high-reward responses from low-reward ones. To address this limitation, we propose DelTA, a discriminative token credit assignment method that estimates token coefficients to amplify side-specific token-gradient directions and downweight shared or weakly discriminative ones. These coefficients reweight a self-normalized RLVR surrogate, making the effective side-wise centroids more contrastive and thereby reshaping the RLVR update direction. On seven mathematical benchmarks, DelTA outperforms the strongest same-scale baselines by 3.26 and 2.62 average points on Qwen3-8B-Base and Qwen3-14B-Base, respectively. Additional results on code generation, a different backbone, and out-of-domain evaluations further demonstrate the generalization ability of DelTA.

In financial Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) systems, models frequently rely on retrieved documents to generate accurate responses due to the time-sensitive nature of the financial domain. While retrieved documents help address knowledge gaps, model-generated responses still suffer from hallucinations that contradict the retrieved information. To mitigate this inconsistency, we propose a Reinforcement Learning framework enhanced with Fine-grained Knowledge Verification (RLFKV). Our method decomposes financial responses into atomic knowledge units and assesses the correctness of each unit to compute the fine-grained faithful reward. This reward offers more precise optimization signals, thereby improving alignment with the retrieved documents. Additionally, to prevent reward hacking (e.g., overly concise replies), we incorporate an informativeness reward that encourages the policy model to retain at least as many knowledge units as the base model. Experiments conducted on the public Financial Data Description (FDD) task and our newly proposed FDD-ANT dataset demonstrate consistent improvements, confirming the effectiveness of our approach.

Reinforcement learning with Verifiable Reward (RLVR) has emerged as a powerful paradigm for training coding agents, where the execution feedback from compilation and tests provides objective verification. However, unlike agent tasks, coding agents face a unique and finer-grained credit assignment challenge: at each step, coding actions simultaneously pack varying changes into different regions of a code version, which makes the contribution of independent change indistinguishable. Existing RLVR methods mostly leverage the outcome reward or step-level reward, which fails to dive into a code diff and makes unique properties of coding actions invisible to training. In this paper, we propose Diff-in-Diff Policy Optimization (DiDPO), a critic-free RL method that constructs fine-grained credit units directly from the structure of code diffs. DiDPO organizes multi-turn coding interactions into multiple thought--action steps and discovers code diffs across sampled trajectories. It then selects anchors by aggregating highly similar sub-diffs split from each whole diff by our ``groupability score'', which provides the splitting schema that optimally balances the semantic scope of anchors and the group mass they may form. Finally these anchors form advantage groups and project the diff-level advantage back to individual response tokens. Experiments on long-horizon coding and reasoning benchmarks show that DiDPO significantly outperforms strong agentic RL baselines. On Qwen2.5-7B-Coder, DiDPO exceeds comparable methods by over 10\% and narrows the gap with far larger models, offering a principled framework for fine-grained credit assignment in coding agent training. We also open-source verl-code, an agentic rl codebase that supports various RL methods and coding benchmarks.

Agentic reinforcement learning enables LLM agents to learn through interaction, but sparse trajectory-level rewards reveal success without identifying which intermediate decisions deserve credit. Training-only privileged skills can provide denser supervision by allowing the same frozen policy snapshot to rescore fixed tokens from skill-free trajectories while conditioned on task-matched procedural skills. Existing methods, however, do not jointly calibrate teacher scores across interaction steps, relate teacher confidence to realized returns, and integrate the resulting signal into native reward-to-advantage construction. We introduce Agentic Reinforcement Learning with Self-Distilled Reward Shaping (ADRS), a framework for constructing return-associated token-level credit for multi-turn language agents. ADRS centers and normalizes privileged token scores within each step, modulates them with a return-associated Teacher Value Advantage (TVA) gate based on within-group confidence--return association, and incorporates the gated token signal into native RL credit construction. Together, these components determine what the teacher prefers, when that preference is return-relevant, and how it enters the native reinforcement-learning credit path, while keeping rollouts and inference skill-free. Finally, experiments across three interactive benchmarks show that ADRS consistently improves performance on long-horizon tasks, with gains persisting across RL backbones, reduced-data settings, unseen tasks, and extended training. For anonymous review, our code is available at the following the link: https://github.com/gitrxh/ADRS-arxiv

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) has become an effective paradigm for improving reasoning language models on tasks such as mathematics, coding, and scientific question answering. However, widely used group-relative objectives, such as GRPO, summarize each sampled group with scalar statistics and therefore discard fine-grained relational information among candidate responses. This weakens credit assignment under sparse outcome rewards, especially when multiple generated solutions differ only subtly in reasoning quality. We propose LamPO, a Lambda-Style Policy Optimization method that replaces scalar group advantages with a Pairwise Decomposed Advantage. LamPO aggregates pairwise reward gaps within each response group and modulates each comparison by a confidence-aware weight computed from sequence log-probability differences, while retaining the critic-free and clipped-update structure of PPO-style optimization. When reference solutions are available, we further add a lightweight ROUGE-L-based dense auxiliary reward to reduce reward sparsity. Experiments on AIME24, AIME25, MATH-500, and GPQA-Diamond with Qwen3-1.7B, Qwen3-4B, and Phi-4-mini show that LamPO consistently improves over GRPO and recent RLVR variants, with more stable training dynamics and better sample efficiency.

Mixed-motive multi-agent settings are rife with persistent free-riding because individual effort benefits all members equally, yet each member bears the full cost of their own contribution. Classical work by Holmström established that under pure self-interest, Nash equilibrium is universal shirking. While i* represents teams as composite actors, it lacks scalable computational mechanisms for analyzing how collective action problems emerge and resolve in coopetitive settings. This technical report extends computational foundations for strategic coopetition to team-level dynamics, building on companion work formalizing interdependence/complementarity (arXiv:2510.18802) and trust dynamics (arXiv:2510.24909). We develop loyalty-moderated utility functions with two mechanisms: loyalty benefit (welfare internalization plus intrinsic contribution satisfaction) and cost tolerance (reduced effort burden for loyal members). We integrate i* structural dependencies through dependency-weighted team cohesion, connecting member incentives to team-level positioning. The framework applies to both human teams (loyalty as psychological identification) and multi-agent systems (alignment coefficients and adjusted cost functions). Experimental validation across 3,125 configurations demonstrates robust loyalty effects (15.04x median effort differentiation). All six behavioral targets achieve thresholds: free-riding baseline (96.5%), loyalty monotonicity (100%), effort differentiation (100%), team size effect (100%), mechanism synergy (99.5%), and bounded outcomes (100%). Empirical validation using published Apache HTTP Server (1995-2023) case study achieves 60/60 points, reproducing contribution patterns across formation, growth, maturation, and governance phases. Statistical significance confirmed at p<0.001, Cohen's d=0.71.

Despite the strong performance achieved by reinforcement learning-trained information-seeking agents, learning in open-ended web environments remains severely constrained by low signal-to-noise feedback. Text-based parsers often discard layout semantics and introduce unstructured noise, while long-horizon training typically relies on sparse outcome rewards that obscure which retrieval actions actually matter. We propose a visual-native search framework that represents webpages as visual snapshots, allowing agents to leverage layout cues to quickly localize salient evidence and suppress distractors. To learn effectively from these high-dimensional observations, we introduce Information-Aware Credit Assignment (ICA), a post-hoc method that estimates each retrieved snapshot's contribution to the final outcome via posterior analysis and propagates dense learning signals back to key search turns. Integrated with a GRPO-based training pipeline, our approach consistently outperforms text-based baselines on diverse information-seeking benchmarks, providing evidence that visual snapshot grounding with information-level credit assignment alleviates the credit-assignment bottleneck in open-ended web environments. The code and datasets will be released in https://github.com/pc-inno/ICA_MM_deepsearch.git.

We present Future-KL Influenced Policy Optimization (FIPO), a reinforcement learning algorithm designed to overcome reasoning bottlenecks in large language models. While GRPO style training scales effectively, it typically relies on outcome-based rewards (ORM) that distribute a global advantage uniformly across every token in a trajectory. We argue that this coarse-grained credit assignment imposes a performance ceiling by failing to distinguish critical logical pivots from trivial tokens. FIPO addresses this by incorporating discounted future-KL divergence into the policy update, creating a dense advantage formulation that re-weights tokens based on their influence on subsequent trajectory behavior. Empirically, FIPO enables models to break through the length stagnation seen in standard baselines. Evaluated on Qwen2.5-32B, FIPO extends the average chain-of-thought length from roughly 4,000 to over 10,000 tokens and increases AIME 2024 Pass@1 accuracy from 50.0% to a peak of 58.0% (converging at approximately 56.0\%). This outperforms both DeepSeek-R1-Zero-Math-32B (around 47.0%) and o1-mini (approximately 56.0%). Our results suggest that establishing dense advantage formulations is a vital path for evolving ORM-based algorithms to unlock the full reasoning potential of base models. We open-source our training system, built on the verl framework.

Masked diffusion language models (dLLMs) generate text by iteratively denoising masked tokens with bidirectional attention. Extending reasoning across generation chunks normally requires keeping earlier generated text in context. We ask whether a dLLM can instead continue reasoning after that text is cleared, using only a fixed-size carried state. We implement this state as a small number of register tokens: dedicated fixed-position tokens whose continuous hidden states are trained to carry reasoning progress across generation chunks. We post-train dLLMs to decode a chunk of text, clear it while preserving the register values, and continue decoding from the prompt and carried state. In our main comparisons on LLaDA and Dream, registers outperform discrete-text carry on every benchmark, with gains of up to 8.5 points on math and 19.5 points on code. Registers are especially effective for bounded code generation, where correct programs usually span several chunks. Finally, registers can be further refined with reinforcement learning on long-horizon reasoning tasks.

When pretrained VLA policies are fine-tuned through online RL, each rollout episode produces only a single binary outcome (success or failure), yet the actor update requires per-transition supervision. Existing approaches commonly reduce this sparse outcome to a single scalar reward or advantage signal, which conflates distinct forms of transition-level feedback and provides limited guidance once basic task success becomes achievable. First, a single scalar signal conflates the two objectives of viability and efficiency; once basic success is achieved, the binary label provides no gradient to distinguish efficient completions from slow ones. Second, real-world rollouts mix autonomous and intervention segments; naively assigning episode outcomes across these boundaries introduces incorrect credit assignment. To address these issues, we propose Hierarchical Advantage-Weighted Behavior Cloning (HABC), which trains separate critic heads for these two objectives on different data subsets and combines their outputs with a state-adaptive balance. A state-adaptive gate g_t merges their one-step advantages, prioritizing viability when success is uncertain and shifting to efficiency only when viability is high, and converts the result into per-transition weights on the actor loss. Intervention-aware credit assignment further restricts outcome labels to segments executed by the current policy, preventing supervision from leaking across intervention boundaries. In real-robot experiments on three contact-rich bimanual tasks, HABC raises success from supervised fine-tuning (SFT) baselines of 36%, 44%, and 12% to 92%, 88%, and 38%.

Reinforcement learning improves LLM reasoning, yet sparse delayed reward over long sequences makes token-level credit assignment the key bottleneck. We study the verifiable-reward setting, where the final answer is checkable and multiple responses can be drawn per prompt. Reasoning tasks in math and medical QA align with this setup, where only a few decision tokens significantly impact the outcome. PPO offers token-level advantages with a learned value model, but it is complex to train both the actor and critic models simultaneously, and it is not easily generalizable, as the token-level values from the critic model can make training prone to overfitting. GRPO is critic-free and supports verifiable rewards, but spreads a single sequence-level return across tokens and ignores branching. We introduce Prefix-to-Tree (P2T), a simple procedure that converts a group of responses into a prefix tree and computes nonparametric prefix values \(V(s)\) by aggregating descendant outcomes. Built on P2T, we propose TEMPO (\textbf{Tree-Estimated Mean Prefix Value for Policy Optimization}), a critic-free algorithm that augments the group-relative outcome signal of GRPO with branch-gated temporal-difference corrections derived from the tree. At non-branch tokens, the temporal-difference (TD) term is zero, so TEMPO reduces to GRPO; at branching tokens, it supplies precise token-level credit without a learned value network or extra judges/teachers. On Qwen3-1.7B/4B, TEMPO outperforms PPO and GRPO on in-distribution (MATH, MedQA) and out-of-distribution (GSM-HARD, AMC23, MedMCQA, MMLU-Medical) benchmarks, and reaches higher validation accuracy with roughly the same wall-clock time.