Daily Papers

The NVIDIA Blackwell architecture, with native support for the ultra-fine-grained NVFP4 format, opens new opportunities for accelerating large language model (LLM) inference. NVFP4's micro-block design, such as a group size of 16, offers strong representational flexibility for capturing local weight distributions and isolating outliers, but it also introduces a large and highly sensitive space of per-group scaling factors. Existing post-training quantization (PTQ) methods primarily focus on refining quantized weight values, leaving this scale-selection step underexplored. To address this gap, we propose H-Scale, a lightweight post-processing method for NVFP4 per-group scale refinement. Instead of minimizing plain weight reconstruction error, H-Scale selects hardware-valid group scales using a diagonal second-order proxy derived from calibration activations, thereby targeting layer output perturbation more directly. It is designed as a drop-in replacement for RTN-style scale selection in diverse NVFP4 pipelines, requires only modest offline calibration, and introduces strictly zero overhead at inference time. Under a fixed evaluation protocol, experiments on mainstream LLMs show that H-Scale generally improves a broad range of NVFP4 baselines and brings several variants closer to the BF16 reference.

Activation oracles aim to make the activations of other models legible to humans and yield promising results compared to white-box interpretability techniques. However, uncertainty quantification (UQ) for the natural-language outputs of such activation oracles is so far understudied. Here, we investigate 6 different methods for estimating the confidence of activation oracles and evaluate how well-calibrated their confidence scores are. Our experiments on 6,000 samples per oracle (varying verbalizer and context prompts) reveal that bootstrap mode frequency is the best-calibrated method among those tested (ECE 5.7% vs. 25.5% for the answer-word log-probability on Qwen3-8B; 10.3% vs. 13.1% on Qwen3.6-27B), and that the log-prob baseline can serve as a fast triage signal at a fraction of the cost. Code and the patched trainer are available at https://github.com/federicotorrielli/probabilistic_activation_oracles.

We present Statistical Calibrated Activation Pruning (SCAP), a post-training activation pruning framework that (1) generalizes sparsification by input activations of Fully-Connected layers for generic and flexible application across Transformers, and (2) features a simple Mode-Centering technique to pre-calibrate activation distributions for maximizing post-training sparsity. Our results demonstrate robust Pareto efficiency compared to prior methods, translating to a 1.5x additional LLM decoding speedup against CATS at iso model quality. SCAP effectiveness is empirically verified across a wide range of models, including recent Transformer Decoders, MoE, Mamba2, Encoding Transformer, and pre-quantized models, highlighting its practicality and scalability. The code is available at: https://github.com/IntelLabs/SCAP.

Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) is used to specialize model behavior by training weights to produce intended target responses for queries. In contrast, In-Context Learning (ICL) adapts models during inference with instructions or demonstrations in the prompt. ICL can offer better generalizability and more calibrated responses compared to SFT in data scarce settings, at the cost of more inference compute. In this work, we ask the question: Can ICL's internal computations be used to improve the qualities of SFT? We first show that ICL and SFT produce distinct activation patterns, indicating that the two methods achieve adaptation through different functional mechanisms. Motivated by this observation and to use ICL's rich functionality, we introduce ICL Activation Alignment (IA2), a self-distillation technique which aims to replicate ICL's activation patterns in SFT models and incentivizes ICL-like internal reasoning. Performing IA2 as a priming step before SFT significantly improves the accuracy and calibration of model outputs, as shown by our extensive empirical results on 12 popular benchmarks and 2 model families. This finding is not only practically useful, but also offers a conceptual window into the inner mechanics of model adaptation.

Post-training compression of large language models (LLMs) largely relies on low-rank weight approximation, which represents each column of a weight matrix in a shared low-dimensional subspace. While this is a computationally efficient strategy, the imposed structural constraint is rigid and can lead to a noticeable model accuracy drop. In this work, we propose CoSpaDi (Compression via Sparse Dictionary Learning), a novel training-free compression framework that replaces low-rank decomposition with a more flexible structured sparse factorization in which each weight matrix is represented with a dense dictionary and a column-sparse coefficient matrix. This formulation enables a union-of-subspaces representation: different columns of the original weight matrix are approximated in distinct subspaces spanned by adaptively selected dictionary atoms, offering greater expressiveness than a single invariant basis. Crucially, CoSpaDi leverages a small calibration dataset to optimize the factorization such that the output activations of compressed projection layers closely match those of the original ones, thereby minimizing functional reconstruction error rather than mere weight approximation. This data-aware strategy preserves better model fidelity without any fine-tuning under reasonable compression ratios. Moreover, the resulting structured sparsity allows efficient sparse-dense matrix multiplication and is compatible with post-training quantization for further memory and latency gains. We evaluate CoSpaDi across multiple Llama and Qwen models under per-layer and per-group settings at 20-50\% compression ratios, demonstrating consistent superiority over state-of-the-art data-aware low-rank methods both in accuracy and perplexity. Our results establish structured sparse dictionary learning as a powerful alternative to conventional low-rank approaches for efficient LLM deployment.

Large language models fine-tuned for forecasting can be accurate yet poorly calibrated, and their chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning may not faithfully reflect the evidence behind a forecast. We ask whether internal representations offer a more direct window into both. Working with Eternis-Forecaster 8B on OpenForesight, we train representation-pooling probes on intermediate activations and find they achieve substantially better calibration; a result that also holds for GLM-4.7-Flash and GLM-4.5-Air. We then assess CoT faithfulness through evidence ablation and diversionary injection: removing an influential source in the prompt often changes the model's forecast while leaving the reasoning trace untouched. The same probes function as lie detectors: their activations track behavioral shifts far better than the reasoning trace does, and they also predict the direction of change in 84% of cases, including when the CoT conceals the perturbation's influence. Finally, forced answering reveals that forecasts are largely fixed before reasoning begins: a single pre-reasoning pass recovers the committed answer and confidence, and routing questions by the spread of this pre-set answer distribution saves 30-47% of generated tokens, with no loss of accuracy. Together, these results establish probing internal representations as a practical tool for calibrating, auditing, and triaging language model forecasters and reasoning models more broadly.

Post-Training Quantization (PTQ) enhances the efficiency of Large Language Models (LLMs) by enabling faster operation and compatibility with more accessible hardware through reduced memory usage, at the cost of small performance drops. We explore the role of calibration sets in PTQ, specifically their effect on hidden activations in various notable open-source LLMs. Calibration sets are crucial for evaluating activation magnitudes and identifying outliers, which can distort the quantization range and negatively impact performance. Our analysis reveals a marked contrast in quantization effectiveness across models. The older OPT model, upon which much of the quantization literature is based, shows significant performance deterioration and high susceptibility to outliers with varying calibration sets. In contrast, newer models like Llama-2 7B, Llama-3 8B, Command-R 35B, and Mistral 7B demonstrate strong robustness, with Mistral 7B showing near-immunity to outliers and stable activations. These findings suggest a shift in PTQ strategies might be needed. As advancements in pre-training methods reduce the relevance of outliers, there is an emerging need to reassess the fundamentals of current quantization literature. The emphasis should pivot towards optimizing inference speed, rather than primarily focusing on outlier preservation, to align with the evolving characteristics of state-of-the-art LLMs.

We introduce the Similarity-Distance-Magnitude (SDM) activation function, a more robust and interpretable formulation of the standard softmax activation function, adding Similarity (i.e., correctly predicted depth-matches into training) awareness and Distance-to-training-distribution awareness to the existing output Magnitude (i.e., decision-boundary) awareness, and enabling interpretability-by-exemplar via dense matching. We further introduce the SDM estimator, based on a data-driven partitioning of the class-wise empirical CDFs via the SDM activation, to control the class- and prediction-conditional accuracy among selective classifications. When used as the final-layer activation over pre-trained language models for selective classification, the SDM estimator is more robust to co-variate shifts and out-of-distribution inputs than existing calibration methods using softmax activations, while remaining informative over in-distribution data.

Lately, post-training quantization methods have gained considerable attention, as they are simple to use, and require only a small unlabeled calibration set. This small dataset cannot be used to fine-tune the model without significant over-fitting. Instead, these methods only use the calibration set to set the activations' dynamic ranges. However, such methods always resulted in significant accuracy degradation, when used below 8-bits (except on small datasets). Here we aim to break the 8-bit barrier. To this end, we minimize the quantization errors of each layer separately by optimizing its parameters over the calibration set. We empirically demonstrate that this approach is: (1) much less susceptible to over-fitting than the standard fine-tuning approaches, and can be used even on a very small calibration set; and (2) more powerful than previous methods, which only set the activations' dynamic ranges. Furthermore, we demonstrate how to optimally allocate the bit-widths for each layer, while constraining accuracy degradation or model compression by proposing a novel integer programming formulation. Finally, we suggest model global statistics tuning, to correct biases introduced during quantization. Together, these methods yield state-of-the-art results for both vision and text models. For instance, on ResNet50, we obtain less than 1\% accuracy degradation --- with 4-bit weights and activations in all layers, but the smallest two. We open-sourced our code.

Pruning and quantization form the foundation of model compression for neural networks, enabling efficient inference for large language models (LLMs). Recently, various quantization and pruning techniques have demonstrated state-of-the-art performance in a post-training setting. They rely upon calibration data, a small set of unlabeled examples, to generate layer activations. However, no prior work has systematically investigated how the calibration data impacts the effectiveness of model compression methods. In this paper, we present the first extensive empirical study on the effect of calibration data upon LLM performance. We trial a variety of pruning and quantization methods, tasks, models, and datasets. Surprisingly, we find substantial variations in downstream task performance, contrasting existing work that suggests a greater level of robustness to the calibration data. Finally, we make a series of recommendations for the effective use of calibration data in LLM quantization and pruning.

Diffusion models have recently achieved remarkable progress in generating realistic images. However, challenges remain in accurately understanding and synthesizing the layout requirements in the textual prompts. To align the generated image with layout instructions, we present a training-free layout calibration system SimM that intervenes in the generative process on the fly during inference time. Specifically, following a "check-locate-rectify" pipeline, the system first analyses the prompt to generate the target layout and compares it with the intermediate outputs to automatically detect errors. Then, by moving the located activations and making intra- and inter-map adjustments, the rectification process can be performed with negligible computational overhead. To evaluate SimM over a range of layout requirements, we present a benchmark SimMBench that compensates for the lack of superlative spatial relations in existing datasets. And both quantitative and qualitative results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed SimM in calibrating the layout inconsistencies. Our project page is at https://simm-t2i.github.io/SimM.

Diffusion large language models (dLLMs), which offer bidirectional context and flexible masked-denoising generation, are emerging as a compelling alternative to autoregressive (AR) LLMs. However, like AR LLMs, their model sizes continue to grow, motivating weight compression for deployment. Although post-training quantization (PTQ) is effective for AR LLMs, directly transferring it to dLLMs at 2-bit leads to unsatisfactory performance. To tackle these challenges, we propose Quant-dLLM, an ultra-low-bit PTQ framework tailored to dLLMs. Since masked-denoising activations in dLLMs differ from the fully visible signals assumed by standard PTQ methods, we introduce Masked Calibration Simulation (MCS) to align calibration with the timestep-dependent masking, which yields more reliable calibrations. Moreover, we propose a Data-aware Any-order Quantizer (DAQ) that learns ultra-low-bit weight representations via an optimization algorithm. It performs iterative approximation guided by our simulated calibration data. In addition, under a strict 2-bit budget, we introduce Adaptive Blockwise Mixed Precision (ABMP), a sensitivity-based precision allocation scheme that adaptively assigns bit width across channel groups. When restricted to 2-bit precision, Quant-dLLM consistently achieves higher accuracy than state-of-the-art (SOTA) AR-transfer PTQ methods on dLLMs. The code and models will be available at: https://github.com/ZTA2785/Quant-dLLM.

Modern automatic speech recognition (ASR) models, such as OpenAI's Whisper, rely on deep encoder-decoder architectures, and their encoders are a critical bottleneck for efficient deployment due to high computational intensity. We introduce LiteASR, a low-rank compression scheme for ASR encoders that significantly reduces inference costs while maintaining transcription accuracy. Our approach leverages the strong low-rank properties observed in intermediate activations: by applying principal component analysis (PCA) with a small calibration dataset, we approximate linear transformations with a chain of low-rank matrix multiplications, and further optimize self-attention to work in the reduced dimension. Evaluation results show that our method can compress Whisper large-v3's encoder size by over 50%, matching Whisper medium's size with better transcription accuracy, thereby establishing a new Pareto-optimal frontier of efficiency and performance. The code of LiteASR is available at https://github.com/efeslab/LiteASR.

Dynamic Tanh (DyT) removes LayerNorm by bounding activations with a learned tanh(alpha x). We show that this bounding is a regime-dependent implicit regularizer, not a uniformly beneficial replacement. Across GPT-2-family models spanning 64M to 3.78B parameters and 1M to 118M tokens, with Llama and ViT cross-checks, DyT improves validation loss by 27.3% at 64M/1M but worsens it by 18.8% at 64M/118M; the 1M benefit vanishes with capacity (+1.7% at 3.78B), while the 118M penalty reaches +27.9%. The mechanism is measurable: 49% of DyT activations saturate at 1M versus 23% at 118M, and a 500-step saturation heuristic classifies DyT's sign with 75% raw in-sample accuracy on the 12-cell GPT-2 calibration set (AUC 0.75; 64% when adding Scale 5 stress cells), correctly labels 3/3 Llama checks, but only reaches 50% raw leave-one-scale-out accuracy. Three interventions support the bounding explanation: HardTanh reproduces the regime pattern, increasing alpha at 118M monotonically reduces DyT's penalty, and vanilla+dropout(p=0.5) matches DyT's data-rich loss. We also localize Llama-DyT collapse to SwiGLU gating, where saturation separates collapse from convergence in a 3-seed component ablation (r=0.94). Scope: all experiments are compute-limited (T/P < 1.84), below Chinchilla-optimal training.

Mixup is a data augmentation strategy that employs convex combinations of training instances and their respective labels to augment the robustness and calibration of deep neural networks. Despite its widespread adoption, the nuanced mechanisms that underpin its success are not entirely understood. The observed phenomenon of Neural Collapse, where the last-layer activations and classifier of deep networks converge to a simplex equiangular tight frame (ETF), provides a compelling motivation to explore whether mixup induces alternative geometric configurations and whether those could explain its success. In this study, we delve into the last-layer activations of training data for deep networks subjected to mixup, aiming to uncover insights into its operational efficacy. Our investigation, spanning various architectures and dataset pairs, reveals that mixup's last-layer activations predominantly converge to a distinctive configuration different than one might expect. In this configuration, activations from mixed-up examples of identical classes align with the classifier, while those from different classes delineate channels along the decision boundary. Moreover, activations in earlier layers exhibit patterns, as if trained with manifold mixup. These findings are unexpected, as mixed-up features are not simple convex combinations of feature class means (as one might get, for example, by training mixup with the mean squared error loss). By analyzing this distinctive geometric configuration, we elucidate the mechanisms by which mixup enhances model calibration. To further validate our empirical observations, we conduct a theoretical analysis under the assumption of an unconstrained features model, utilizing the mixup loss. Through this, we characterize and derive the optimal last-layer features under the assumption that the classifier forms a simplex ETF.

Vision Transformers (ViTs) have become one of the most commonly used backbones for vision tasks. Despite their remarkable performance, they often suffer significant accuracy drops when quantized for practical deployment, particularly by post-training quantization (PTQ) under ultra-low bits. Recently, reconstruction-based PTQ methods have shown promising performance in quantizing Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs). However, they fail when applied to ViTs, primarily due to the inaccurate estimation of output importance and the substantial accuracy degradation in quantizing post-GELU activations. To address these issues, we propose APHQ-ViT, a novel PTQ approach based on importance estimation with Average Perturbation Hessian (APH). Specifically, we first thoroughly analyze the current approximation approaches with Hessian loss, and propose an improved average perturbation Hessian loss. To deal with the quantization of the post-GELU activations, we design an MLP Reconstruction (MR) method by replacing the GELU function in MLP with ReLU and reconstructing it by the APH loss on a small unlabeled calibration set. Extensive experiments demonstrate that APHQ-ViT using linear quantizers outperforms existing PTQ methods by substantial margins in 3-bit and 4-bit across different vision tasks. The source code is available at https://github.com/GoatWu/APHQ-ViT.

Diffusion transformer (DiT) models have achieved remarkable success in image generation, thanks for their exceptional generative capabilities and scalability. Nonetheless, the iterative nature of diffusion models (DMs) results in high computation complexity, posing challenges for deployment. Although existing cache-based acceleration methods try to utilize the inherent temporal similarity to skip redundant computations of DiT, the lack of correction may induce potential quality degradation. In this paper, we propose increment-calibrated caching, a training-free method for DiT acceleration, where the calibration parameters are generated from the pre-trained model itself with low-rank approximation. To deal with the possible correction failure arising from outlier activations, we introduce channel-aware Singular Value Decomposition (SVD), which further strengthens the calibration effect. Experimental results show that our method always achieve better performance than existing naive caching methods with a similar computation resource budget. When compared with 35-step DDIM, our method eliminates more than 45% computation and improves IS by 12 at the cost of less than 0.06 FID increase. Code is available at https://github.com/ccccczzy/icc.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are proficient in natural language processing tasks, but their deployment is often restricted by extensive parameter sizes and computational demands. This paper focuses on post-training quantization (PTQ) in LLMs, specifically 4-bit weight and 8-bit activation (W4A8) quantization, to enhance computational efficiency -- a topic less explored compared to weight-only quantization. We present two innovative techniques: activation-quantization-aware scaling (AQAS) and sequence-length-aware calibration (SLAC) to enhance PTQ by considering the combined effects on weights and activations and aligning calibration sequence lengths to target tasks. Moreover, we introduce dINT, a hybrid data format combining integer and denormal representations, to address the underflow issue in W4A8 quantization, where small values are rounded to zero. Through rigorous evaluations of LLMs, including OPT and LLaMA, we demonstrate that our techniques significantly boost task accuracies to levels comparable with full-precision models. By developing arithmetic units compatible with dINT, we further confirm that our methods yield a 2times hardware efficiency improvement compared to 8-bit integer MAC unit.

Diffusion transformers (DiTs) achieve state-of-the-art image and video generation, but their multi-step sampling and growing parameter count make inference expensive. Post-training quantization (PTQ) is the natural remedy, yet DiT activations shift across timesteps, prompts, and guidance branches, forcing prior methods to re-fit calibration data for every new checkpoint or modality. We present OrbitQuant, a data-agnostic weight-activation quantizer that bypasses range estimation by quantizing in a normalized, rotated basis. In this basis, a randomized permuted block-Hadamard (RPBH) rotation concentrates each coordinate around one fixed, known marginal regardless of the input, so a single Lloyd-Max codebook serves all timesteps, prompts, and layers of a given input dimension. We extend the same quantizer to weight rows offline, absorbing the rotation into the weights so that it cancels inside each linear layer and only a forward rotation on the activations remains at runtime. The same recipe transfers from image to video with no per-modality tuning. Across FLUX.1, Z-Image-Turbo, Wan 2.1, and CogVideoX, it sets the state of the art for PTQ at several low-bit settings. It also pushes PTQ of image diffusion transformers to W2A4 with usable generation quality.

Vision-language-action (VLA) models unify perception, language, and control for embodied agents but face significant challenges in practical deployment due to rapidly increasing compute and memory demands, especially as models scale to longer horizons and larger backbones. To address these bottlenecks, we introduce QuantVLA, a training-free post-training quantization (PTQ) framework that, to our knowledge, is the first PTQ approach for VLA systems and the first to successfully quantize a diffusion transformer (DiT) action head. QuantVLA incorporates three scale-calibrated components: (1) a selective quantization layout that integerizes all linear layers in both the language backbone and the DiT while keeping attention projections in floating point to preserve the original operator schedule; (2) attention temperature matching, a lightweight per-head scaling mechanism that stabilizes attention logits and is folded into the dequantization scales at inference; and (3) output head balancing, a per-layer residual interface calibration that mitigates post-projection energy drift. The framework requires no additional training, uses only a small unlabeled calibration buffer, and supports integer kernels for low-bit weights and activations while leaving the architecture unchanged. Across representative VLA models on LIBERO, QuantVLA exceeds the task success rates of full-precision baselines, achieves about 70% relative memory savings on the quantized components, and delivers a 1.22x speedup in end-to-end inference latency, providing a practical pathway toward scalable low-bit embodied intelligence under strict compute, memory, and power constraints.

Diffusion models have achieved great success in image generation tasks through iterative noise estimation. However, the heavy denoising process and complex neural networks hinder their low-latency applications in real-world scenarios. Quantization can effectively reduce model complexity, and post-training quantization (PTQ), which does not require fine-tuning, is highly promising in accelerating the denoising process. Unfortunately, we find that due to the highly dynamic distribution of activations in different denoising steps, existing PTQ methods for diffusion models suffer from distribution mismatch issues at both calibration sample level and reconstruction output level, which makes the performance far from satisfactory, especially in low-bit cases. In this paper, we propose Enhanced Distribution Alignment for Post-Training Quantization of Diffusion Models (EDA-DM) to address the above issues. Specifically, at the calibration sample level, we select calibration samples based on the density and diversity in the latent space, thus facilitating the alignment of their distribution with the overall samples; and at the reconstruction output level, we propose Fine-grained Block Reconstruction, which can align the outputs of the quantized model and the full-precision model at different network granularity. Extensive experiments demonstrate that EDA-DM outperforms the existing post-training quantization frameworks in both unconditional and conditional generation scenarios. At low-bit precision, the quantized models with our method even outperform the full-precision models on most datasets.

Global perception is essential for embodied agents in 360° spaces, yet current affordance grounding remains largely object-centric and restricted to perspective views. To bridge this gap, we introduce a novel task: Holistic Affordance Grounding in 360° Indoor Environments. This task faces unique challenges, including severe geometric distortions from Equirectangular Projection (ERP), semantic dispersion, and cross-scale alignment difficulties. We propose PanoAffordanceNet, an end-to-end framework featuring a Distortion-Aware Spectral Modulator (DASM) for latitude-dependent calibration and an Omni-Spherical Densification Head (OSDH) to restore topological continuity from sparse activations. By integrating multi-level constraints comprising pixel-wise, distributional, and region-text contrastive objectives, our framework effectively suppresses semantic drift under low supervision. Furthermore, we construct 360-AGD, the first high-quality panoramic affordance grounding dataset. Extensive experiments demonstrate that PanoAffordanceNet significantly outperforms existing methods, establishing a solid baseline for scene-level perception in embodied intelligence. The source code and benchmark dataset will be made publicly available at https://github.com/GL-ZHU925/PanoAffordanceNet.

Post-training quantization (PTQ) is a neural network compression technique that converts a full-precision model into a quantized model using lower-precision data types. Although it can help reduce the size and computational cost of deep neural networks, it can also introduce quantization noise and reduce prediction accuracy, especially in extremely low-bit settings. How to determine the appropriate quantization parameters (e.g., scaling factors and rounding of weights) is the main problem facing now. Existing methods attempt to determine these parameters by minimize the distance between features before and after quantization, but such an approach only considers local information and may not result in the most optimal quantization parameters. We analyze this issue and ropose PD-Quant, a method that addresses this limitation by considering global information. It determines the quantization parameters by using the information of differences between network prediction before and after quantization. In addition, PD-Quant can alleviate the overfitting problem in PTQ caused by the small number of calibration sets by adjusting the distribution of activations. Experiments show that PD-Quant leads to better quantization parameters and improves the prediction accuracy of quantized models, especially in low-bit settings. For example, PD-Quant pushes the accuracy of ResNet-18 up to 53.14% and RegNetX-600MF up to 40.67% in weight 2-bit activation 2-bit. The code is released at https://github.com/hustvl/PD-Quant.

The Segment Anything Model 2 (SAM2) is a powerful foundation model for promptable segmentation. However, its high computational and memory costs are a major barrier to deployment on resource-constrained devices. In this paper, we present Q-SAM2, an accurate low-bit quantization method that achieves high compression and high fidelity. To address performance degradation arising from challenging weight and activation distributions during quantization, Q-SAM2 introduces two novel contributions: Variance-Reduced Calibration (VRC), an initialization method that reduces weight statistical variance by minimizing the Frobenius norm over a small calibration batch; and Learnable Statistical Clipping (LSC), a Quantization-Aware Training (QAT) method that learns momentum-stabilized clipping factors to manage outliers in weights and activations. Comprehensive experiments demonstrate that Q-SAM2 achieves highly accurate inference with substantial efficiency gains, significantly surpassing state-of-the-art general QAT schemes, particularly in the ultra-low 2-bit regime. Specifically, Q-SAM2 achieves an accuracy gain of up to 9.7 ppt in J&F on the video segmentation benchmark and 7.3 ppt in mIoU for instance segmentation over the best competing QAT model, all while achieving an 8x reduction in model size compared to the BF16 baseline.

Deep neural networks have demonstrated remarkable performance across numerous learning tasks but often suffer from miscalibration, resulting in unreliable probability outputs. This has inspired many recent works on mitigating miscalibration, particularly through post-hoc recalibration methods that aim to obtain calibrated probabilities without sacrificing the classification performance of pre-trained models. In this study, we summarize and categorize previous works into three general strategies: intuitively designed methods, binning-based methods, and methods based on formulations of ideal calibration. Through theoretical and practical analysis, we highlight ten common limitations in previous approaches. To address these limitations, we propose a probabilistic learning framework for calibration called h-calibration, which theoretically constructs an equivalent learning formulation for canonical calibration with boundedness. On this basis, we design a simple yet effective post-hoc calibration algorithm. Our method not only overcomes the ten identified limitations but also achieves markedly better performance than traditional methods, as validated by extensive experiments. We further analyze, both theoretically and experimentally, the relationship and advantages of our learning objective compared to traditional proper scoring rule. In summary, our probabilistic framework derives an approximately equivalent differentiable objective for learning error-bounded calibrated probabilities, elucidating the correspondence and convergence properties of computational statistics with respect to theoretical bounds in canonical calibration. The theoretical effectiveness is verified on standard post-hoc calibration benchmarks by achieving state-of-the-art performance. This research offers valuable reference for learning reliable likelihood in related fields.

We address the neural network robustness problem by adding Similarity (i.e., correctly predicted depth-matches into training)-awareness and Distance-to-training-distribution-awareness to the existing output Magnitude (i.e., decision-boundary)-awareness of the softmax function. The resulting SDM activation function provides strong signals of the relative epistemic (reducible) predictive uncertainty. We use this novel behavior to further address the complementary HCI problem of mapping the output to human-interpretable summary statistics over relevant partitions of a held-out calibration set. Estimates of prediction-conditional uncertainty are obtained via a parsimonious learned transform over the class-conditional empirical CDFs of the output of a final-layer SDM activation function. For decision-making and as an intrinsic model check, estimates of class-conditional accuracy are obtained by further partitioning the high-probability regions of this calibrated output into class-conditional, region-specific CDFs. The uncertainty estimates from SDM calibration are remarkably robust to test-time distribution shifts and out-of-distribution inputs; incorporate awareness of the effective sample size; provide estimates of uncertainty from the learning and data splitting processes; and are well-suited for selective classification and conditional branching for additional test-time compute based on the predictive uncertainty, as for selective LLM generation, routing, and composition over multiple models and retrieval. Finally, we construct SDM networks, LLMs with uncertainty-aware verification and interpretability-by-exemplar as intrinsic properties. We provide open-source software implementing these results.

Reliable usage of object detectors require them to be calibrated -- a crucial problem that requires careful attention. Recent approaches towards this involve (1) designing new loss functions to obtain calibrated detectors by training them from scratch, and (2) post-hoc Temperature Scaling (TS) that learns to scale the likelihood of a trained detector to output calibrated predictions. These approaches are then evaluated based on a combination of Detection Expected Calibration Error (D-ECE) and Average Precision. In this work, via extensive analysis and insights, we highlight that these recent evaluation frameworks, evaluation metrics, and the use of TS have notable drawbacks leading to incorrect conclusions. As a step towards fixing these issues, we propose a principled evaluation framework to jointly measure calibration and accuracy of object detectors. We also tailor efficient and easy-to-use post-hoc calibration approaches such as Platt Scaling and Isotonic Regression specifically for object detection task. Contrary to the common notion, our experiments show that once designed and evaluated properly, post-hoc calibrators, which are extremely cheap to build and use, are much more powerful and effective than the recent train-time calibration methods. To illustrate, D-DETR with our post-hoc Isotonic Regression calibrator outperforms the recent train-time state-of-the-art calibration method Cal-DETR by more than 7 D-ECE on the COCO dataset. Additionally, we propose improved versions of the recently proposed Localization-aware ECE and show the efficacy of our method on these metrics as well. Code is available at: https://github.com/fiveai/detection_calibration.

Class probabilities predicted by most multiclass classifiers are uncalibrated, often tending towards over-confidence. With neural networks, calibration can be improved by temperature scaling, a method to learn a single corrective multiplicative factor for inputs to the last softmax layer. On non-neural models the existing methods apply binary calibration in a pairwise or one-vs-rest fashion. We propose a natively multiclass calibration method applicable to classifiers from any model class, derived from Dirichlet distributions and generalising the beta calibration method from binary classification. It is easily implemented with neural nets since it is equivalent to log-transforming the uncalibrated probabilities, followed by one linear layer and softmax. Experiments demonstrate improved probabilistic predictions according to multiple measures (confidence-ECE, classwise-ECE, log-loss, Brier score) across a wide range of datasets and classifiers. Parameters of the learned Dirichlet calibration map provide insights to the biases in the uncalibrated model.

Following the standard supervised fine-tuning (SFT) paradigm, in-context learning (ICL) has become an efficient approach propelled by the recent advancements in large language models (LLMs), yielding promising performance across various tasks in few-shot data setups. However, both paradigms are prone to suffer from the critical problem of overconfidence (i.e., miscalibration), especially in such limited data setups. In this work, we deliver an in-depth analysis of the behavior across different choices of learning methods from the perspective of both performance and calibration, as well as their interplay. Through extensive controlled experiments, we find that simultaneous gains for both task performance and calibration are difficult to achieve, and the problem of miscalibration exists across all learning methods in low-resource scenarios. To address this challenging trade-off between performance and calibration, we then investigate the potential of self-ensembling techniques applied at different modeling stages (e.g., variations of in-context examples or variations in prompts or different ensembling strategies). We justify the feasibility of self-ensembling on SFT in addition to ICL, to make the predictions more calibrated and have comparable or even better performance. Our work sheds light on which learning paradigm to choose and how to enhance both task performance and calibration of LLMs.

Calibration is still an important issue for user experience in Brain-Computer Interfaces (BCI). Common experimental designs often involve a lengthy training period that raises the cognitive fatigue, before even starting to use the BCI. Reducing or suppressing this subject-dependent calibration is possible by relying on advanced machine learning techniques, such as transfer learning. Building on Riemannian BCI, we present a simple and effective scheme to train a classifier on data recorded from different subjects, to reduce the calibration while preserving good performances. The main novelty of this paper is to propose a unique approach that could be applied on very different paradigms. To demonstrate the robustness of this approach, we conducted a meta-analysis on multiple datasets for three BCI paradigms: event-related potentials (P300), motor imagery and SSVEP. Relying on the MOABB open source framework to ensure the reproducibility of the experiments and the statistical analysis, the results clearly show that the proposed approach could be applied on any kind of BCI paradigm and in most of the cases to significantly improve the classifier reliability. We point out some key features to further improve transfer learning methods.

Calibration, the alignment of predicted probabilities with true outcome frequencies, is essential for reliable decision-making. While extensively studied for classification and regression, calibration has not been formally addressed for probabilistic label ranking, where the goal is to predict a distribution over orderings of a label set. Naively treating rankings as classes ignores their structure and fails to capture important modalities such as pairwise and top-k predictions. We formalize calibration for label ranking and develop a hierarchy of notions covering full rankings, sub-rankings, and top-k rankings. We prove that full-rank calibration implies the others but not conversely, and sub-ranking and top-k calibration are incomparable. Empirically, we find popular label ranking models are often poorly calibrated, with substantial differences between sub-ranking and top-k metrics. Applying our framework to RLHF reward models, we find that calibration correlates strongly but not perfectly with benchmark accuracy, suggesting it captures a meaningful quality dimension beyond top-1 accuracy. These findings motivate future work on understanding the downstream effects of miscalibration and developing methods to correct it.

We introduce a framework for calibrating machine learning models so that their predictions satisfy explicit, finite-sample statistical guarantees. Our calibration algorithms work with any underlying model and (unknown) data-generating distribution and do not require model refitting. The framework addresses, among other examples, false discovery rate control in multi-label classification, intersection-over-union control in instance segmentation, and the simultaneous control of the type-1 error of outlier detection and confidence set coverage in classification or regression. Our main insight is to reframe the risk-control problem as multiple hypothesis testing, enabling techniques and mathematical arguments different from those in the previous literature. We use the framework to provide new calibration methods for several core machine learning tasks, with detailed worked examples in computer vision and tabular medical data.

Model calibration aims to align confidence with prediction correctness. The Cross-Entropy (CE) loss is widely used for calibrator training, which enforces the model to increase confidence on the ground truth class. However, we find the CE loss has intrinsic limitations. For example, for a narrow misclassification, a calibrator trained by the CE loss often produces high confidence on the wrongly predicted class (e.g., a test sample is wrongly classified and its softmax score on the ground truth class is around 0.4), which is undesirable. In this paper, we propose a new post-hoc calibration objective derived from the aim of calibration. Intuitively, the proposed objective function asks that the calibrator decrease model confidence on wrongly predicted samples and increase confidence on correctly predicted samples. Because a sample itself has insufficient ability to indicate correctness, we use its transformed versions (e.g., rotated, greyscaled and color-jittered) during calibrator training. Trained on an in-distribution validation set and tested with isolated, individual test samples, our method achieves competitive calibration performance on both in-distribution and out-of-distribution test sets compared with the state of the art. Further, our analysis points out the difference between our method and commonly used objectives such as CE loss and mean square error loss, where the latters sometimes deviates from the calibration aim.

Deep neural networks are increasingly utilized in various machine learning tasks. However, as these models grow in complexity, they often face calibration issues, despite enhanced prediction accuracy. Many studies have endeavored to improve calibration performance through the use of specific loss functions, data preprocessing and training frameworks. Yet, investigations into calibration properties have been somewhat overlooked. Our study leverages the Neural Architecture Search (NAS) search space, offering an exhaustive model architecture space for thorough calibration properties exploration. We specifically create a model calibration dataset. This dataset evaluates 90 bin-based and 12 additional calibration measurements across 117,702 unique neural networks within the widely employed NATS-Bench search space. Our analysis aims to answer several longstanding questions in the field, using our proposed dataset: (i) Can model calibration be generalized across different datasets? (ii) Can robustness be used as a calibration measurement? (iii) How reliable are calibration metrics? (iv) Does a post-hoc calibration method affect all models uniformly? (v) How does calibration interact with accuracy? (vi) What is the impact of bin size on calibration measurement? (vii) Which architectural designs are beneficial for calibration? Additionally, our study bridges an existing gap by exploring calibration within NAS. By providing this dataset, we enable further research into NAS calibration. As far as we are aware, our research represents the first large-scale investigation into calibration properties and the premier study of calibration issues within NAS. The project page can be found at https://www.taolinwei.com/calibration-study

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities out of box for a wide range of applications, yet accuracy still remains a major growth area, especially in mission-critical domains such as biomedicine. An effective method to calibrate the confidence level on LLM responses is essential to automatically detect errors and facilitate human-in-the-loop verification. An important source of calibration signals stems from expert-stipulated programmatic supervision, which is often available at low cost but has its own limitations such as noise and coverage. In this paper, we introduce a Pareto optimal self-supervision framework that can leverage available programmatic supervision to systematically calibrate LLM responses by producing a risk score for every response, without any additional manual efforts. This is accomplished by learning a harmonizer model to align LLM output with other available supervision sources, which would assign higher risk scores to more uncertain LLM responses and facilitate error correction. Experiments on standard relation extraction tasks in biomedical and general domains demonstrate the promise of this approach, with our proposed risk scores highly correlated with the real error rate of LLMs. For the most uncertain test instances, dynamic prompting based on our proposed risk scores results in significant accuracy improvement for off-the-shelf LLMs, boosting GPT-3 results past state-of-the-art (SOTA) weak supervision and GPT-4 results past SOTA supervised results on challenging evaluation datasets.

Single-prompt accuracy is the dominant way to benchmark language models, but it can miss reliability failures that matter. We evaluate a 15-model open-weight corpus, with the main reliability analyses focused on 10 instruct models across five classification and reasoning benchmarks under five prompt variants each, measuring accuracy, token-probability calibration, verbal-confidence calibration, verbal parse rate, and prompt-perturbation spread for every (model x dataset x variant) cell. We find three broad results. First, evaluation design can materially change the conclusion. Switching Expected Calibration Error (ECE) token from a raw to a label-set-normalised definition changes per-cell calibration by a mean absolute 0.149. More strikingly, pairing a chain-of-thought prompt with a first-character evaluator on ARC-Challenge reduces apparent accuracy by 72-88% across all five primary models; two independent repair procedures recover 93.8% and 102.7% of the lost performance, indicating an evaluator-side rather than model-side failure. Second, confidence signals are fragile. On MMLU-Pro, every primary model verbally reports confidence substantially above both its accuracy and its token-probability confidence on the same rows, and verbal parse rate can collapse for a single model on a single prompt variant. Third, prompt robustness does not track parameter count reliably. Across 10 instruct models, the correlation between model size and prompt-perturbation spread ranges from -0.244 to 0.474 across benchmarks. Taken together, these results show that reliability conclusions for small language models depend not only on the model being evaluated, but also on the evaluation pipeline used to measure it. We argue that calibration definitions, evaluator logic, verbal parseability, and prompt robustness should be reported explicitly when making reliability claims.

Whenever we use devices to take measurements, calibration is indispensable. While the purpose of calibration is to reduce bias and uncertainty in the measurements, it can be quite difficult, expensive, and sometimes even impossible to implement. We study a challenging problem called self-calibration, i.e., the task of designing an algorithm for devices so that the algorithm is able to perform calibration automatically. More precisely, we consider the setup y = A(d) x + epsilon where only partial information about the sensing matrix A(d) is known and where A(d) linearly depends on d. The goal is to estimate the calibration parameter d (resolve the uncertainty in the sensing process) and the signal/object of interests x simultaneously. For three different models of practical relevance, we show how such a bilinear inverse problem, including blind deconvolution as an important example, can be solved via a simple linear least squares approach. As a consequence, the proposed algorithms are numerically extremely efficient, thus potentially allowing for real-time deployment. We also present a variation of the least squares approach, which leads to a~spectral method, where the solution to the bilinear inverse problem can be found by computing the singular vector associated with the smallest singular value of a certain matrix derived from the bilinear system. Explicit theoretical guarantees and stability theory are derived for both techniques; and the number of sampling complexity is nearly optimal (up to a poly-log factor). Applications in imaging sciences and signal processing are discussed and numerical simulations are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of our approach.

The fusion of LiDARs and cameras has been increasingly adopted in autonomous driving for perception tasks. The performance of such fusion-based algorithms largely depends on the accuracy of sensor calibration, which is challenging due to the difficulty of identifying common features across different data modalities. Previously, many calibration methods involved specific targets and/or manual intervention, which has proven to be cumbersome and costly. Learning-based online calibration methods have been proposed, but their performance is barely satisfactory in most cases. These methods usually suffer from issues such as sparse feature maps, unreliable cross-modality association, inaccurate calibration parameter regression, etc. In this paper, to address these issues, we propose CalibFormer, an end-to-end network for automatic LiDAR-camera calibration. We aggregate multiple layers of camera and LiDAR image features to achieve high-resolution representations. A multi-head correlation module is utilized to identify correlations between features more accurately. Lastly, we employ transformer architectures to estimate accurate calibration parameters from the correlation information. Our method achieved a mean translation error of 0.8751 cm and a mean rotation error of 0.0562 ^{circ} on the KITTI dataset, surpassing existing state-of-the-art methods and demonstrating strong robustness, accuracy, and generalization capabilities.

With the increasing adoption of vision-language models (VLMs) in critical decision-making systems such as healthcare or autonomous driving, the calibration of their uncertainty estimates becomes paramount. Yet, this dimension has been largely underexplored in the VLM test-time prompt-tuning (TPT) literature, which has predominantly focused on improving their discriminative performance. Recent state-of-the-art advocates for enforcing full orthogonality over pairs of text prompt embeddings to enhance separability, and therefore calibration. Nevertheless, as we theoretically show in this work, the inherent gradients from fully orthogonal constraints will strongly push semantically related classes away, ultimately making the model overconfident. Based on our findings, we propose Semantic Orthogonal Calibration (SoC), a Huber-based regularizer that enforces smooth prototype separation while preserving semantic proximity, thereby improving calibration compared to prior orthogonality-based approaches. Across a comprehensive empirical validation, we demonstrate that SoC consistently improves calibration performance, while also maintaining competitive discriminative capabilities.

Reliable probability estimates are critical in many machine learning applications, yet modern classifiers are often poorly calibrated. Post-hoc calibration provides a simple and widely used solution, but the large number of proposed methods, combined with small-scale and inconsistent evaluations, makes it difficult to determine which approaches are truly effective in practice. We introduce a large-scale, standardized benchmark for post-hoc calibration, covering nearly 2000 experiments across tabular and computer vision tasks, including binary, multiclass, and large-scale classification settings. Our benchmark aggregates predictions from a diverse set of classical models, modern deep learning architectures, and foundation models, and provides unified, reproducible implementations of dozens of calibration methods within a common evaluation framework. We argue that Post-Hoc Improvement (PHI) in proper scoring rules offers a principled alternative to traditional calibration error estimators for comparing post-hoc methods, capturing both calibration quality and potential degradation to the model's predictive performance. Using this framework, we conduct the most comprehensive empirical study of post-hoc calibration to date. Our results reveal consistent patterns across domains: smooth calibration functions outperform binning-based approaches, dedicated multiclass methods are essential in high-dimensional settings, and generic machine learning models are not competitive without calibration-specific design. To facilitate future research, we release all data, code, and evaluation tools, providing a plug-and-play benchmark for developing and comparing calibration methods.

Confidence calibration -- the problem of predicting probability estimates representative of the true correctness likelihood -- is important for classification models in many applications. We discover that modern neural networks, unlike those from a decade ago, are poorly calibrated. Through extensive experiments, we observe that depth, width, weight decay, and Batch Normalization are important factors influencing calibration. We evaluate the performance of various post-processing calibration methods on state-of-the-art architectures with image and document classification datasets. Our analysis and experiments not only offer insights into neural network learning, but also provide a simple and straightforward recipe for practical settings: on most datasets, temperature scaling -- a single-parameter variant of Platt Scaling -- is surprisingly effective at calibrating predictions.

Autonomous agents based on large language models (LLMs) are rapidly evolving to handle multi-turn tasks, but ensuring their trustworthiness remains a critical challenge. A fundamental pillar of this trustworthiness is calibration, which refers to an agent's ability to express confidence that reliably reflects its actual performance. While calibration is well-established for static models, its dynamics in tool-integrated agentic workflows remain underexplored. In this work, we systematically investigate verbalized calibration in tool-use agents, revealing a fundamental confidence dichotomy driven by tool type. Specifically, our pilot study identifies that evidence tools (e.g., web search) systematically induce severe overconfidence due to inherent noise in retrieved information, while verification tools (e.g., code interpreters) can ground reasoning through deterministic feedback and mitigate miscalibration. To robustly improve calibration across tool types, we propose a reinforcement learning (RL) fine-tuning framework that jointly optimizes task accuracy and calibration, supported by a holistic benchmark of reward designs. We demonstrate that our trained agents not only achieve superior calibration but also exhibit robust generalization from local training environments to noisy web settings and to distinct domains such as mathematical reasoning. Our results highlight the necessity of domain-specific calibration strategies for tool-use agents. More broadly, this work establishes a foundation for building self-aware agents that can reliably communicate uncertainty in high-stakes, real-world deployments.

Neural network calibration is an essential task in deep learning to ensure consistency between the confidence of model prediction and the true correctness likelihood. In this paper, we propose a new post-processing calibration method called Neural Clamping, which employs a simple joint input-output transformation on a pre-trained classifier via a learnable universal input perturbation and an output temperature scaling parameter. Moreover, we provide theoretical explanations on why Neural Clamping is provably better than temperature scaling. Evaluated on CIFAR-100 and ImageNet image recognition datasets and a variety of deep neural network models, our empirical results show that Neural Clamping significantly outperforms state-of-the-art post-processing calibration methods.

Applications such as weather forecasting and personalized medicine demand models that output calibrated probability estimates---those representative of the true likelihood of a prediction. Most models are not calibrated out of the box but are recalibrated by post-processing model outputs. We find in this work that popular recalibration methods like Platt scaling and temperature scaling are (i) less calibrated than reported, and (ii) current techniques cannot estimate how miscalibrated they are. An alternative method, histogram binning, has measurable calibration error but is sample inefficient---it requires O(B/ε^2) samples, compared to O(1/ε^2) for scaling methods, where B is the number of distinct probabilities the model can output. To get the best of both worlds, we introduce the scaling-binning calibrator, which first fits a parametric function to reduce variance and then bins the function values to actually ensure calibration. This requires only O(1/ε^2 + B) samples. Next, we show that we can estimate a model's calibration error more accurately using an estimator from the meteorological community---or equivalently measure its calibration error with fewer samples (O(B) instead of O(B)). We validate our approach with multiclass calibration experiments on CIFAR-10 and ImageNet, where we obtain a 35% lower calibration error than histogram binning and, unlike scaling methods, guarantees on true calibration. In these experiments, we also estimate the calibration error and ECE more accurately than the commonly used plugin estimators. We implement all these methods in a Python library: https://pypi.org/project/uncertainty-calibration

Overconfidence and underconfidence in machine learning classifiers is measured by calibration: the degree to which the probabilities predicted for each class match the accuracy of the classifier on that prediction. How one measures calibration remains a challenge: expected calibration error, the most popular metric, has numerous flaws which we outline, and there is no clear empirical understanding of how its choices affect conclusions in practice, and what recommendations there are to counteract its flaws. In this paper, we perform a comprehensive empirical study of choices in calibration measures including measuring all probabilities rather than just the maximum prediction, thresholding probability values, class conditionality, number of bins, bins that are adaptive to the datapoint density, and the norm used to compare accuracies to confidences. To analyze the sensitivity of calibration measures, we study the impact of optimizing directly for each variant with recalibration techniques. Across MNIST, Fashion MNIST, CIFAR-10/100, and ImageNet, we find that conclusions on the rank ordering of recalibration methods is drastically impacted by the choice of calibration measure. We find that conditioning on the class leads to more effective calibration evaluations, and that using the L2 norm rather than the L1 norm improves both optimization for calibration metrics and the rank correlation measuring metric consistency. Adaptive binning schemes lead to more stablity of metric rank ordering when the number of bins vary, and is also recommended. We open source a library for the use of our calibration measures.

Reliable multimodal sensor fusion algorithms require accurate spatiotemporal calibration. Recently, targetless calibration techniques based on implicit neural representations have proven to provide precise and robust results. Nevertheless, such methods are inherently slow to train given the high computational overhead caused by the large number of sampled points required for volume rendering. With the recent introduction of 3D Gaussian Splatting as a faster alternative to implicit representation methods, we propose to leverage this new rendering approach to achieve faster multi-sensor calibration. We introduce 3DGS-Calib, a new calibration method that relies on the speed and rendering accuracy of 3D Gaussian Splatting to achieve multimodal spatiotemporal calibration that is accurate, robust, and with a substantial speed-up compared to methods relying on implicit neural representations. We demonstrate the superiority of our proposal with experimental results on sequences from KITTI-360, a widely used driving dataset.

The class activation mapping, or CAM, has been the cornerstone of feature attribution methods for multiple vision tasks. Its simplicity and effectiveness have led to wide applications in the explanation of visual predictions and weakly-supervised localization tasks. However, CAM has its own shortcomings. The computation of attribution maps relies on ad-hoc calibration steps that are not part of the training computational graph, making it difficult for us to understand the real meaning of the attribution values. In this paper, we improve CAM by explicitly incorporating a latent variable encoding the location of the cue for recognition in the formulation, thereby subsuming the attribution map into the training computational graph. The resulting model, class activation latent mapping, or CALM, is trained with the expectation-maximization algorithm. Our experiments show that CALM identifies discriminative attributes for image classifiers more accurately than CAM and other visual attribution baselines. CALM also shows performance improvements over prior arts on the weakly-supervised object localization benchmarks. Our code is available at https://github.com/naver-ai/calm.

Despite their impressive predictive performance in various computer vision tasks, deep neural networks (DNNs) tend to make overly confident predictions, which hinders their widespread use in safety-critical applications. While there have been recent attempts to calibrate DNNs, most of these efforts have primarily been focused on classification tasks, thus neglecting DNN-based object detectors. Although several recent works addressed calibration for object detection and proposed differentiable penalties, none of them are consistent estimators of established concepts in calibration. In this work, we tackle the challenge of defining and estimating calibration error specifically for this task. In particular, we adapt the definition of classification calibration error to handle the nuances associated with object detection, and predictions in structured output spaces more generally. Furthermore, we propose a consistent and differentiable estimator of the detection calibration error, utilizing kernel density estimation. Our experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our estimator against competing train-time and post-hoc calibration methods, while maintaining similar detection performance.

Virtual contrast enhancement (VCE) synthesizes enhanced breast MR images from pre-contrast acquisitions. Modern latent generators offer strong image priors, but their bounded natural-image autoencoders conflict with the non-canonical intensity scale of MRI. We show that the upper bound can alter radiomic fidelity before generation, while scaling source and target independently creates a coordinate inconsistency. We propose Predictive Enhancement Calibration (PEC), which represents each pair in a shared, case-adaptive coordinate during training and predicts its unavailable upper endpoint from the pre-contrast image at inference. We integrate PEC with a pretrained FLUX latent flow transformer via parameter-efficient reference conditioning. Target round trips first isolate representation loss before generation; near-matched conditional models then compare PEC with fixed-wide and separate coordinates under comparable training budgets and backbone settings. On the fixed internal MAMA100 development cohort, PEC improves all eight point estimates in this source-only VCE setting, with paired evidence strongest for MSE and LPIPS.\noindentCode: https://github.com/tanlei0/pec-breast-mri-vce

Deep neural networks are susceptible to adversarial attacks due to the accumulation of perturbations in the feature level, and numerous works have boosted model robustness by deactivating the non-robust feature activations that cause model mispredictions. However, we claim that these malicious activations still contain discriminative cues and that with recalibration, they can capture additional useful information for correct model predictions. To this end, we propose a novel, easy-to-plugin approach named Feature Separation and Recalibration (FSR) that recalibrates the malicious, non-robust activations for more robust feature maps through Separation and Recalibration. The Separation part disentangles the input feature map into the robust feature with activations that help the model make correct predictions and the non-robust feature with activations that are responsible for model mispredictions upon adversarial attack. The Recalibration part then adjusts the non-robust activations to restore the potentially useful cues for model predictions. Extensive experiments verify the superiority of FSR compared to traditional deactivation techniques and demonstrate that it improves the robustness of existing adversarial training methods by up to 8.57% with small computational overhead. Codes are available at https://github.com/wkim97/FSR.

Datasets scraped from the internet have been critical to the successes of large-scale machine learning. Yet, this very success puts the utility of future internet-derived datasets at potential risk, as model outputs begin to replace human annotations as a source of supervision. In this work, we first formalize a system where interactions with one model are recorded as history and scraped as training data in the future. We then analyze its stability over time by tracking changes to a test-time bias statistic (e.g. gender bias of model predictions). We find that the degree of bias amplification is closely linked to whether the model's outputs behave like samples from the training distribution, a behavior which we characterize and define as consistent calibration. Experiments in three conditional prediction scenarios - image classification, visual role-labeling, and language generation - demonstrate that models that exhibit a sampling-like behavior are more calibrated and thus more stable. Based on this insight, we propose an intervention to help calibrate and stabilize unstable feedback systems. Code is available at https://github.com/rtaori/data_feedback.

Standard evaluation of LLM confidence relies on calibration metrics (ECE, Brier score) that conflate two distinct capacities: how much a model knows (Type-1 sensitivity) and how well it knows what it knows (Type-2 metacognitive sensitivity). We introduce an evaluation framework based on Type-2 Signal Detection Theory that decomposes these capacities using meta-d' and the metacognitive efficiency ratio M-ratio. Applied to four LLMs (Llama-3-8B-Instruct, Mistral-7B-Instruct-v0.3, Llama-3-8B-Base, Gemma-2-9B-Instruct) across 224,000 factual QA trials, we find: (1) metacognitive efficiency varies substantially across models even when Type-1 sensitivity is similar -- Mistral achieves the highest d' but the lowest M-ratio; (2) metacognitive efficiency is domain-specific, with different models showing different weakest domains, invisible to aggregate metrics; (3) temperature manipulation shifts Type-2 criterion while meta-d' remains stable for two of four models, dissociating confidence policy from metacognitive capacity; (4) AUROC_2 and M-ratio produce fully inverted model rankings, demonstrating these metrics answer fundamentally different evaluation questions. The meta-d' framework reveals which models "know what they don't know" versus which merely appear well-calibrated due to criterion placement -- a distinction with direct implications for model selection, deployment, and human-AI collaboration. Pre-registered analysis; code and data publicly available.

Extrinsic calibration is essential for multi-sensor fusion, existing methods rely on structured targets or fully-excited data, limiting real-world applicability. Online calibration further suffers from weak excitation, leading to unreliable estimates. To address these limitations, we propose a reinforcement learning (RL)-based extrinsic calibration framework that formulates extrinsic calibration as a decision-making problem, directly optimizes SE(3) extrinsics to enhance odometry accuracy. Our approach leverages a probabilistic Bingham distribution to model 3D rotations, ensuring stable optimization while inherently retaining quaternion symmetry. A trajectory alignment reward mechanism enables robust calibration without structured targets by quantitatively evaluating estimated tightly-coupled trajectory against a reference trajectory. Additionally, an automated data selection module filters uninformative samples, significantly improving efficiency and scalability for large-scale datasets. Extensive experiments on UAVs, UGVs, and handheld platforms demonstrate that our method outperforms traditional optimization-based approaches, achieving high-precision calibration even under weak excitation conditions. Our framework simplifies deployment on diverse robotic platforms by eliminating the need for high-quality initial extrinsics and enabling calibration from routine operating data. The code is available at https://github.com/APRIL-ZJU/learn-to-calibrate.

With the advancement of deep learning technology, neural networks have demonstrated their excellent ability to provide accurate predictions in many tasks. However, a lack of consideration for neural network calibration will not gain trust from humans, even for high-accuracy models. In this regard, the gap between the confidence of the model's predictions and the actual correctness likelihood must be bridged to derive a well-calibrated model. In this paper, we introduce the Neural Clamping Toolkit, the first open-source framework designed to help developers employ state-of-the-art model-agnostic calibrated models. Furthermore, we provide animations and interactive sections in the demonstration to familiarize researchers with calibration in neural networks. A Colab tutorial on utilizing our toolkit is also introduced.

Research has shown that deep networks tend to be overly optimistic about their predictions, leading to an underestimation of prediction errors. Due to the limited nature of data, existing studies have proposed various methods based on model prediction probabilities to bin the data and evaluate calibration error. We propose a more generalized definition of calibration error called Partitioned Calibration Error (PCE), revealing that the key difference among these calibration error metrics lies in how the data space is partitioned. We put forth an intuitive proposition that an accurate model should be calibrated across any partition, suggesting that the input space partitioning can extend beyond just the partitioning of prediction probabilities, and include partitions directly related to the input. Through semantic-related partitioning functions, we demonstrate that the relationship between model accuracy and calibration lies in the granularity of the partitioning function. This highlights the importance of partitioning criteria for training a calibrated and accurate model. To validate the aforementioned analysis, we propose a method that involves jointly learning a semantic aware grouping function based on deep model features and logits to partition the data space into subsets. Subsequently, a separate calibration function is learned for each subset. Experimental results demonstrate that our approach achieves significant performance improvements across multiple datasets and network architectures, thus highlighting the importance of the partitioning function for calibration.

Confidence calibration is central to providing accurate and interpretable uncertainty estimates, especially under safety-critical scenarios. However, we find that existing calibration algorithms often overlook the issue of *proximity bias*, a phenomenon where models tend to be more overconfident in low proximity data (i.e., data lying in the sparse region of the data distribution) compared to high proximity samples, and thus suffer from inconsistent miscalibration across different proximity samples. We examine the problem over 504 pretrained ImageNet models and observe that: 1) Proximity bias exists across a wide variety of model architectures and sizes; 2) Transformer-based models are relatively more susceptible to proximity bias than CNN-based models; 3) Proximity bias persists even after performing popular calibration algorithms like temperature scaling; 4) Models tend to overfit more heavily on low proximity samples than on high proximity samples. Motivated by the empirical findings, we propose ProCal, a plug-and-play algorithm with a theoretical guarantee to adjust sample confidence based on proximity. To further quantify the effectiveness of calibration algorithms in mitigating proximity bias, we introduce proximity-informed expected calibration error (PIECE) with theoretical analysis. We show that ProCal is effective in addressing proximity bias and improving calibration on balanced, long-tail, and distribution-shift settings under four metrics over various model architectures. We believe our findings on proximity bias will guide the development of *fairer and better-calibrated* models, contributing to the broader pursuit of trustworthy AI. Our code is available at: https://github.com/MiaoXiong2320/ProximityBias-Calibration.

Diffusion Transformers (DiTs) have driven substantial progress in image and video generation but suffer from prohibitive computational costs. Feature caching accelerates inference by reusing intermediate representations. Existing methods rely on historical features for implementation simplicity, yet suffer from severe error accumulation at high acceleration ratios. To address this limitation, we investigate the nature of the requisite feature correction. We demonstrate that the optimal calibration update is characterized by a shared low-rank subspace across diverse prompts. Guided by this structural insight, we propose LearniBridge, a learnable calibration mechanism for feature caching that bridges multiple timesteps through lightweight LoRA updates. This mechanism enables effective calibration requiring only 3-5 training samples. Extensive experiments on image and video generation show that LearniBridge achieves up to 5.87times, 5.75times, and 4.10times acceleration on FLUX, HunyuanVideo, and WAN2.1, respectively. On WAN2.1, it improves VBench by 1.28% over the previous SOTA at 4.10times acceleration. Our code is available at https://github.com/Iiiiiiirene/LearniBridge.

Accurate probabilistic predictions are essential for optimal decision making. While neural network miscalibration has been studied primarily in classification, we investigate this in the less-explored domain of regression. We conduct the largest empirical study to date to assess the probabilistic calibration of neural networks. We also analyze the performance of recalibration, conformal, and regularization methods to enhance probabilistic calibration. Additionally, we introduce novel differentiable recalibration and regularization methods, uncovering new insights into their effectiveness. Our findings reveal that regularization methods offer a favorable tradeoff between calibration and sharpness. Post-hoc methods exhibit superior probabilistic calibration, which we attribute to the finite-sample coverage guarantee of conformal prediction. Furthermore, we demonstrate that quantile recalibration can be considered as a specific case of conformal prediction. Our study is fully reproducible and implemented in a common code base for fair comparisons.

AI agents are rapidly advancing from passive language models to autonomous systems executing complex, multi-step tasks. Yet their overconfidence in failure remains a fundamental barrier to deployment in high-stakes settings. Existing calibration methods, built for static single-turn outputs, cannot address the unique challenges of agentic systems, such as compounding errors along trajectories, uncertainty from external tools, and opaque failure modes. To address these challenges, we introduce, for the first time, the problem of Agentic Confidence Calibration and propose Holistic Trajectory Calibration (HTC), a novel diagnostic framework that extracts rich process-level features ranging from macro dynamics to micro stability across an agent's entire trajectory. Powered by a simple, interpretable model, HTC consistently surpasses strong baselines in both calibration and discrimination, across eight benchmarks, multiple LLMs, and diverse agent frameworks. Beyond performance, HTC delivers three essential advances: it provides interpretability by revealing the signals behind failure, enables transferability by applying across domains without retraining, and achieves generalization through a General Agent Calibrator (GAC) that achieves the best calibration (lowest ECE) on the out-of-domain GAIA benchmark. Together, these contributions establish a new process-centric paradigm for confidence calibration, providing a framework for diagnosing and enhancing the reliability of AI agents.

Which reasoning behaviors are associated with correct answers in reasoning models, and does reasoning-oriented training amplify those behaviors? This distinction is important because reasoning-oriented training can make traces look more deliberative without amplifying the behaviors most tied to model correctness. We quantify this mismatch with Behavioral Lift, a metric that measures how much correctness changes when a behavior is present versus absent in a model's reasoning trace. Across 15 models and 6 benchmarks spanning text-only and vision-language reasoning, we annotate 15,282 traces with a taxonomy whose core behaviors are defined for both LLM and VLM traces. We find evidence for an Amplification-Lift Gap, in which thinking models strongly amplify self-correction, hypothesis testing, and uncertainty acknowledgment, while the highest-lift behaviors are confidence calibration, knowledge alignment, and self-awareness. Confidence calibration is among the strongest positive signals of correctness in both modalities, yet is barely amplified; uncertainty acknowledgment is amplified by 3--7times, yet is weakly or negatively associated with correctness. We find that reasoning-oriented training does not preferentially amplify the highest-Lift behaviors, motivating process-level objectives that reward calibrated and grounded reasoning rather than surface form alone.

Using a language model to score or rank candidate responses has become a scalable alternative to human evaluation in reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) pipelines, benchmarking, and application layer evaluations. However, output reliability depends heavily on prompting and aggregation strategy. We present an empirical investigation of four drop-in techniques -- ensemble scoring, task-specific criteria injection, calibration context, and adaptive model escalation -- for improving LLM judge accuracy on RewardBench 2, with a unifying lens of noise control on the stochastic judge: ensembling as Monte Carlo averaging over per-call noise, criteria injection as between-response discrimination sharpening, and per-response score variance as an uncertainty signal. Ensemble scoring and task-specific criteria injection (the latter virtually cost free) together reach up to 85.8% accuracy, +13.5pp over baseline. Calibration context and adaptive model escalation also improve over baseline but are dominated by criteria + ensembling on the cost-accuracy Pareto frontier. Small models benefit disproportionately from ensembling, making high-accuracy LLM judges accessible at low cost. We show that these techniques generalise across model providers, evaluating on both OpenAI GPT and Anthropic Claude families.

Prompting and in-context learning (ICL) have become efficient learning paradigms for large language models (LLMs). However, LLMs suffer from prompt brittleness and various bias factors in the prompt, including but not limited to the formatting, the choice verbalizers, and the ICL examples. To address this problem that results in unexpected performance degradation, calibration methods have been developed to mitigate the effects of these biases while recovering LLM performance. In this work, we first conduct a systematic analysis of the existing calibration methods, where we both provide a unified view and reveal the failure cases. Inspired by these analyses, we propose Batch Calibration (BC), a simple yet intuitive method that controls the contextual bias from the batched input, unifies various prior approaches, and effectively addresses the aforementioned issues. BC is zero-shot, inference-only, and incurs negligible additional costs. In the few-shot setup, we further extend BC to allow it to learn the contextual bias from labeled data. We validate the effectiveness of BC with PaLM 2-(S, M, L) and CLIP models and demonstrate state-of-the-art performance over previous calibration baselines across more than 10 natural language understanding and image classification tasks.

As AI-based code generation becomes widespread, researchers are investigating the calibration of code LLMs - ensuring their confidence scores faithfully represent the true likelihood of code correctness. To do so, we investigate multicalibration, which can capture additional factors about a coding problem, such as complexity, code length, or programming language used. We study four multicalibration approaches on three function synthesis benchmarks, using latest-generation code LLMs (Qwen3 Coder, GPT-OSS, DeepSeek-R1-Distill). Our results demonstrate that multicalibration can yield distinct improvements over both uncalibrated token likelihoods (+1.03 in skill score) and baseline calibrations (+0.37 in skill score). We study the influence of the aforementioned factors in ablations, and make our dataset (consisting of code generations, likelihoods, and correctness labels) available for future research on code LLM calibration.

Multi-modality fusion and multi-task learning are becoming trendy in 3D autonomous driving scenario, considering robust prediction and computation budget. However, naively extending the existing framework to the domain of multi-modality multi-task learning remains ineffective and even poisonous due to the notorious modality bias and task conflict. Previous works manually coordinate the learning framework with empirical knowledge, which may lead to sub-optima. To mitigate the issue, we propose a novel yet simple multi-level gradient calibration learning framework across tasks and modalities during optimization. Specifically, the gradients, produced by the task heads and used to update the shared backbone, will be calibrated at the backbone's last layer to alleviate the task conflict. Before the calibrated gradients are further propagated to the modality branches of the backbone, their magnitudes will be calibrated again to the same level, ensuring the downstream tasks pay balanced attention to different modalities. Experiments on large-scale benchmark nuScenes demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method, eg, an absolute 14.4% mIoU improvement on map segmentation and 1.4% mAP improvement on 3D detection, advancing the application of 3D autonomous driving in the domain of multi-modality fusion and multi-task learning. We also discuss the links between modalities and tasks.

We introduce a cross-domain behavioural assay of monitoring-control coupling in LLMs, grounded in the Nelson and Narens (1990) metacognitive framework and applying human psychometric methodology to LLM evaluation. The battery comprises 524 items across six cognitive domains (learning, metacognitive calibration, social cognition, attention, executive function, prospective regulation), each grounded in an established experimental paradigm. Tasks T1-T5 were pre-registered on OSF prior to data collection; T6 was added as an exploratory extension. After every forced-choice response, dual probes adapted from Koriat and Goldsmith (1996) ask the model to KEEP or WITHDRAW its answer and to BET or decline. The critical metric is the withdraw delta: the difference in withdrawal rate between incorrect and correct items. Applied to 20 frontier LLMs (10,480 evaluations), the battery discriminates three profiles consistent with the Nelson-Narens architecture: blanket confidence, blanket withdrawal, and selective sensitivity. Accuracy rank and metacognitive sensitivity rank are largely inverted. Retrospective monitoring and prospective regulation appear dissociable (r = .17, 95% CI wide given n=20; exemplar-based evidence is the primary support). Scaling on metacognitive calibration is architecture-dependent: monotonically decreasing (Qwen), monotonically increasing (GPT-5.4), or flat (Gemma). Behavioural findings converge structurally with an independent Type-2 SDT approach, providing preliminary cross-method construct validity. All items, data, and code: https://github.com/synthiumjp/metacognitive-monitoring-battery.

Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) hold considerable promise for applications in healthcare. However, their deployment in safety-critical settings is hindered by two key limitations: (i) sensitivity to prompt design, and (ii) a tendency to generate incorrect responses with high confidence. As clinicians may rely on a model's stated confidence to gauge the reliability of its predictions, it is especially important that when a model expresses high confidence, it is also highly accurate. We introduce Prompt4Trust, the first reinforcement learning (RL) framework for prompt augmentation targeting confidence calibration in MLLMs. A lightweight LLM is trained to produce context-aware auxiliary prompts that guide a downstream task MLLM to generate responses in which the expressed confidence more accurately reflects predictive accuracy. Unlike conventional calibration techniques, Prompt4Trust specifically prioritizes aspects of calibration most critical for safe and trustworthy clinical decision-making. Beyond improvements driven by this clinically motivated calibration objective, our proposed method also improves task accuracy, achieving state-of-the-art medical visual question answering (VQA) performance on the PMC-VQA benchmark, which is composed of multiple-choice questions spanning diverse medical imaging modalities. Moreover, our framework trained with a small downstream task MLLM showed promising zero-shot generalization to larger MLLMs in our experiments, suggesting the potential for scalable calibration without the associated computational costs. This work demonstrates the potential of automated yet human-aligned prompt engineering for improving the the trustworthiness of MLLMs in safety critical settings. Our codebase can be found at https://github.com/xingbpshen/prompt4trust.

We present AnyCalib, a method for calibrating the intrinsic parameters of a camera from a single in-the-wild image, that is agnostic to the camera model. Current methods are predominantly tailored to specific camera models and/or require extrinsic cues, such as the direction of gravity, to be visible in the image. In contrast, we argue that the perspective and distortion cues inherent in images are sufficient for model-agnostic camera calibration. To demonstrate this, we frame the calibration process as the regression of the rays corresponding to each pixel. We show, for the first time, that this intermediate representation allows for a closed-form recovery of the intrinsics for a wide range of camera models, including but not limited to: pinhole, Brown-Conrady and Kannala-Brandt. Our approach also applies to edited -- cropped and stretched -- images. Experimentally, we demonstrate that AnyCalib consistently outperforms alternative methods, including 3D foundation models, despite being trained on orders of magnitude less data. Code is available at https://github.com/javrtg/AnyCalib.

Alzheimer's disease (AD) constitutes a complex neurocognitive disease and is the main cause of dementia. Although many studies have been proposed targeting at diagnosing dementia through spontaneous speech, there are still limitations. Existing state-of-the-art approaches, which propose multimodal methods, train separately language and acoustic models, employ majority-vote approaches, and concatenate the representations of the different modalities either at the input level, i.e., early fusion, or during training. Also, some of them employ self-attention layers, which calculate the dependencies between representations without considering the contextual information. In addition, no prior work has taken into consideration the model calibration. To address these limitations, we propose some new methods for detecting AD patients, which capture the intra- and cross-modal interactions. First, we convert the audio files into log-Mel spectrograms, their delta, and delta-delta and create in this way an image per audio file consisting of three channels. Next, we pass each transcript and image through BERT and DeiT models respectively. After that, context-based self-attention layers, self-attention layers with a gate model, and optimal transport domain adaptation methods are employed for capturing the intra- and inter-modal interactions. Finally, we exploit two methods for fusing the self and cross-attended features. For taking into account the model calibration, we apply label smoothing. We use both performance and calibration metrics. Experiments conducted on the ADReSS Challenge dataset indicate the efficacy of our introduced approaches over existing research initiatives with our best performing model reaching Accuracy and F1-score up to 91.25% and 91.06% respectively.

We present an online post-hoc calibration method, called Online Platt Scaling (OPS), which combines the Platt scaling technique with online logistic regression. We demonstrate that OPS smoothly adapts between i.i.d. and non-i.i.d. settings with distribution drift. Further, in scenarios where the best Platt scaling model is itself miscalibrated, we enhance OPS by incorporating a recently developed technique called calibeating to make it more robust. Theoretically, our resulting OPS+calibeating method is guaranteed to be calibrated for adversarial outcome sequences. Empirically, it is effective on a range of synthetic and real-world datasets, with and without distribution drifts, achieving superior performance without hyperparameter tuning. Finally, we extend all OPS ideas to the beta scaling method.

Training loss and throughput can hide distinct internal representation in language-model training. To examine these hidden mechanics, we use spectral measurements as practical and operational diagnostics. Using a controlled family of decoder-only models adapted from the modded NanoGPT codebase, we introduce an empirical protocol based on activation covariance and per-sample gradient SVD spectra. This dual-view reveals three empirical findings and one mechanistic explanation. First, batch size acts as a latent determinant of representation geometry: runs that reach equal loss settle into systematically distinct activation spectra. Second, the activation covariance tail measured early in training reliably forecasts downstream token efficiency. Third, movement of the activation spectrum head (leading modes), together with gradient spectra, characterizes underlying learning-dynamics changes, separating learning-side architectural improvements from primarily execution-side gains. These predictive and diagnostic signals persist across the 12-, 36-, and 48-layer model tiers. Finally, a mechanistic model proves the main observations and explains how activation covariance spectra correlate with task-aligned feature learning.

Real-world large-scale datasets are both noisily labeled and class-imbalanced. The issues seriously hurt the generalization of trained models. It is hence significant to address the simultaneous incorrect labeling and class-imbalance, i.e., the problem of learning with noisy labels on long-tailed data. Previous works develop several methods for the problem. However, they always rely on strong assumptions that are invalid or hard to be checked in practice. In this paper, to handle the problem and address the limitations of prior works, we propose a representation calibration method RCAL. Specifically, RCAL works with the representations extracted by unsupervised contrastive learning. We assume that without incorrect labeling and class imbalance, the representations of instances in each class conform to a multivariate Gaussian distribution, which is much milder and easier to be checked. Based on the assumption, we recover underlying representation distributions from polluted ones resulting from mislabeled and class-imbalanced data. Additional data points are then sampled from the recovered distributions to help generalization. Moreover, during classifier training, representation learning takes advantage of representation robustness brought by contrastive learning, which further improves the classifier performance. We derive theoretical results to discuss the effectiveness of our representation calibration. Experiments on multiple benchmarks justify our claims and confirm the superiority of the proposed method.

Training terminal agents requires executable and verifiable tasks that are not merely solvable, but appropriately challenging for learning. Executable validation establishes feasibility, yet does not reveal how a task behaves relative to a given solver setting. In this paper, we present CalibForge, an autonomous terminal-task synthesis system that uses verified solver behavior to revise candidate tasks through adversarial solver calibration. Multi-solver calibration targets disagreement within a heterogeneous solver pool, whereas contrastive solver calibration targets a designated strong-pass/weak-fail relation; both operationalize a solver-relative learnable zone anchored in demonstrated solvability. Using CalibForge, we construct 5,431 calibrated terminal tasks. Our ablations show that both strategies yield more effective supervision than authoring and validation alone or ordinary single-solver feedback. Models trained on the full collection achieve 32.58% and 47.57% on Terminal-Bench 2.0. The largest improvements over the corresponding base model reach 24.71 percentage points on Terminal-Bench 2.0, 27.68 points on SWE-bench Pro, and 30.04 points on Doc2Repo. Together, these results support solver-relative learnability as a practical target for constructing effective and transferable agent training data.

We introduce a novel architecture, UniCal, for Camera-to-LiDAR (C2L) extrinsic calibration which leverages self-attention mechanisms through a Transformer-based backbone network to infer the 6-degree of freedom (DoF) relative transformation between the sensors. Unlike previous methods, UniCal performs an early fusion of the input camera and LiDAR data by aggregating camera image channels and LiDAR mappings into a multi-channel unified representation before extracting their features jointly with a single-branch architecture. This single-branch architecture makes UniCal lightweight, which is desirable in applications with restrained resources such as autonomous driving. Through experiments, we show that UniCal achieves state-of-the-art results compared to existing methods. We also show that through transfer learning, weights learned on the calibration task can be applied to a calibration validation task without re-training the backbone.

Graph-augmented retrieval combines dense similarity with graph-based relevance signals such as Personalized PageRank (PPR), but these scores have different distributions and are not directly comparable. We study this as a score calibration problem for heterogeneous retrieval fusion in multi-hop question answering. Our method, PhaseGraph, maps vector and graph scores to a common unit-free scale using percentile-rank normalization (PIT) before fusion, enabling stable combination without discarding magnitude information. Across MuSiQue and 2WikiMultiHopQA, calibrated fusion improves held-out last-hop retrieval on HippoRAG2-style benchmarks: LastHop@5 increases from 75.1% to 76.5% on MuSiQue (8W/1L, p=0.039) and from 51.7% to 53.6% on 2WikiMultiHopQA (11W/2L, p=0.023), both on independent held-out test splits. A theory-driven ablation shows that percentile-based calibration is directionally more robust than min-max normalization on both tune and test splits (1W/6L, p=0.125), while Boltzmann weighting performs comparably to linear fusion after calibration (0W/3L, p=0.25). These results suggest that score commensuration is a robust design choice, and the exact post-calibration operator appears to matter less on these benchmarks.

Metacognition is a critical component of intelligence that describes the ability to monitor and regulate one's own cognitive processes. Yet LLMs exhibit systemic deficiencies in key metacognitive faculties: they hallucinate with high confidence, fail to recognize knowledge boundaries, and misrepresent their internal uncertainty--undermining trustworthiness and reliability. Since monitoring task performance and adapting behavior accordingly are central to metacognition, we posit that models capable of accurately judging their own performance are better positioned to improve it. We operationalize this idea via two novel mechanisms: reinforcement learning with metacognitive feedback (RLMF), a paradigm to refine completion rankings during preference optimization based on the quality of a model's self-judgments of performance, and metacognitive data selection, which uses similar self-judgments to identify high-value training examples, outperforming naive active learning. We apply these innovations to the problem of faithful calibration (FC), a task that is itself fundamentally metacognitive: the goal is to align expressed with intrinsic uncertainty, difficult even for frontier LLMs. We adopt a two-stage, decoupled approach, first using these methods to calibrate the faithfulness of models' self-reported confidence scores, then mapping to natural, context-adaptable linguistic uncertainty via targeted output editing. Extensive experiments show RLMF achieves generalizable, state-of-the-art FC on diverse tasks while preserving accuracy. Further, RLMF surpasses standard RL by up to 63% while enhancing models' ability to assess and express their own capability limits. This positions RLMF as a promising paradigm to enhance LLM metacognition toward improved abilities and alignment, and suggests metacognitive performance as an effective RL signal to overcome limits of prior intrinsic feedback methods.

Foundation models, specifically Large Language Models (LLMs), have lately gained wide-spread attention and adoption. Reinforcement Learning with Human Feedback (RLHF) involves training a reward model to capture desired behaviors, which is then used to align LLM's. These reward models are additionally used at inference-time to estimate LLM responses' adherence to those desired behaviors. However, there is little work measuring how robust these reward models are to distribution shifts. In this work, we evaluate how reward model performance - measured via accuracy and calibration (i.e. alignment between accuracy and confidence) - is affected by distribution shift. We show novel calibration patterns and accuracy drops due to OOD prompts and responses, and that the reward model is more sensitive to shifts in responses than prompts. Additionally, we adapt an OOD detection technique commonly used in classification to the reward model setting to detect these distribution shifts in prompts and responses.

Vision-language models, such as contrastive language-image pre-training (CLIP)-based approaches, have reached state-of-the-art (SOTA) results in medical artificial intelligence. However, recent work reveals that CLIP-based models remain vulnerable to shortcuts. We investigate how real-world shortcuts manifest across different layers of the medical CLIP-based model, MedCLIP, and its vision encoder, a frozen ResNet-50. We attach 17 linear classification probes to the intermediate layers of the ResNet-50 and train them on three different dataset configurations and targets: NIH-CXR14 (pneumothorax) and PadChest (cardiomegaly and pneumothorax). This setup allows us to observe model behaviour during evaluation using subgroup-based calibration and layer-wise confidence curves. We find that the final linear probes achieve a high AUROC but poor calibration in the models. The layer-wise confidence analyses suggest that shortcuts emerge at different depths. Patterns consistent with localised shortcuts, such as drains, appear at later layers, while patterns consistent with diffuse shortcuts, such as scanner-specific noise patterns, emerge earlier, aligning with previous work. Finally, we conduct a manual analysis of the images, which reveals data quality issues in both NIH-CXR14 and PadChest. Our findings underscore that even SOTA models remain vulnerable to shortcuts, and the need for high-quality and well-annotated datasets to draw solid conclusions. Code can be found on our GitHub: https://github.com/nikodice4/MedCLIP_shortcuts.

Model calibration measures the agreement between the predicted probability estimates and the true correctness likelihood. Proper model calibration is vital for high-risk applications. Unfortunately, modern deep neural networks are poorly calibrated, compromising trustworthiness and reliability. Medical image segmentation particularly suffers from this due to the natural uncertainty of tissue boundaries. This is exasperated by their loss functions, which favor overconfidence in the majority classes. We address these challenges with DOMINO, a domain-aware model calibration method that leverages the semantic confusability and hierarchical similarity between class labels. Our experiments demonstrate that our DOMINO-calibrated deep neural networks outperform non-calibrated models and state-of-the-art morphometric methods in head image segmentation. Our results show that our method can consistently achieve better calibration, higher accuracy, and faster inference times than these methods, especially on rarer classes. This performance is attributed to our domain-aware regularization to inform semantic model calibration. These findings show the importance of semantic ties between class labels in building confidence in deep learning models. The framework has the potential to improve the trustworthiness and reliability of generic medical image segmentation models. The code for this article is available at: https://github.com/lab-smile/DOMINO.

Multimodal machine learning has achieved remarkable progress in a wide range of scenarios. However, the reliability of multimodal learning remains largely unexplored. In this paper, through extensive empirical studies, we identify current multimodal classification methods suffer from unreliable predictive confidence that tend to rely on partial modalities when estimating confidence. Specifically, we find that the confidence estimated by current models could even increase when some modalities are corrupted. To address the issue, we introduce an intuitive principle for multimodal learning, i.e., the confidence should not increase when one modality is removed. Accordingly, we propose a novel regularization technique, i.e., Calibrating Multimodal Learning (CML) regularization, to calibrate the predictive confidence of previous methods. This technique could be flexibly equipped by existing models and improve the performance in terms of confidence calibration, classification accuracy, and model robustness.

Large language models (LLMs) are able to solve various tasks with only a few demonstrations utilizing their in-context learning (ICL) abilities. However, LLMs often rely on their pre-trained semantic priors of demonstrations rather than on the input-label relationships to proceed with ICL prediction. In this work, we term this phenomenon as the 'Demonstration Shortcut'. While previous works have primarily focused on improving ICL prediction results for predefined tasks, we aim to rectify the Demonstration Shortcut, thereby enabling the LLM to effectively learn new input-label relationships from demonstrations. To achieve this, we introduce In-Context Calibration, a demonstration-aware calibration method. We evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed method in two settings: (1) the Original ICL Task using the standard label space and (2) the Task Learning setting, where the label space is replaced with semantically unrelated tokens. In both settings, In-Context Calibration demonstrates substantial improvements, with results generalized across three LLM families (OPT, GPT, and Llama2) under various configurations.

A well-calibrated model should express confidence that matches its actual accuracy -- when it claims 80\% confidence, it should be correct 80\% of the time. While large language models (LLMs) have achieved remarkable performance across diverse tasks, their epistemic calibration remains poorly understood. We introduce KalshiBench, a benchmark of 300 prediction market questions from Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange, with verifiable real-world outcomes occurring after model training cutoffs. Unlike traditional benchmarks measuring accuracy on static knowledge, KalshiBench evaluates whether models can appropriately quantify uncertainty about genuinely unknown future events. We evaluate five frontier models -- Claude Opus 4.5, GPT-5.2, DeepSeek-V3.2, Qwen3-235B, and Kimi-K2 -- and find systematic overconfidence across all models. Even the best-calibrated model (Claude Opus 4.5, ECE=0.120) shows substantial calibration errors, while reasoning-enhanced models like GPT-5.2-XHigh exhibit worse calibration (ECE=0.395) despite comparable accuracy. Critically, only one model achieves a positive Brier Skill Score, indicating most models perform worse than simply predicting base rates. Our findings suggest that scaling and enhanced reasoning do not automatically confer calibration benefits, highlighting epistemic calibration as a distinct capability requiring targeted development.

Despite impressive performance on standard benchmarks, multimodal large language models (MLLMs) face critical challenges in real-world clinical environments where medical images inevitably suffer various quality degradations. Existing benchmarks exhibit two key limitations: (1) absence of large-scale, multidimensional assessment across medical image quality gradients and (2) no systematic confidence calibration analysis. To address these gaps, we present MedQ-Deg, a comprehensive benchmark for evaluating medical MLLMs under image quality degradations. MedQ-Deg provides multi-dimensional evaluation spanning 18 distinct degradation types, 30 fine-grained capability dimensions, and 7 imaging modalities, with 24,894 question-answer pairs. Each degradation is implemented at 3 severity degrees, calibrated by expert radiologists. We further introduce Calibration Shift metric, which quantifies the gap between a model's perceived confidence and actual performance to assess metacognitive reliability under degradation. Our comprehensive evaluation of 40 mainstream MLLMs reveals several critical findings: (1) overall model performance degrades systematically as degradation severity increases, (2) models universally exhibit the AI Dunning-Kruger Effect, maintaining inappropriately high confidence despite severe accuracy collapse, and (3) models display markedly differentiated behavioral patterns across capability dimensions, imaging modalities, and degradation types. We hope MedQ-Deg drives progress toward medical MLLMs that are robust and trustworthy in real clinical practice.

Prior work has shown that instruction-tuned large language models (LLMs) are less well calibrated than their base pre-trained counterparts. However, little is known about the frequently used chat template's effect on the calibration of conversational LLMs. In this work, we investigate the mechanisms driving this miscalibration by decoupling the effects of the post-training algorithm and the chat format. We find that, while instruction tuning fundamentally harms calibration, the chat template aggravates the issue through an "ownership bias" -- models are significantly more confident in their own answers than in identical answers provided by a user. Extensive experiments across six recent open-weight LLMs, three benchmarks, and three confidence elicitation methods show that models assign up to 26% higher confidence to their own responses. Leveraging this insight, we propose a simple inference-time strategy: framing the model's answer as user input during confidence elicitation. This approach significantly reduces overconfidence and improves calibration by up to 26% without the need for retraining, narrowing the gap between base and instruction-tuned models.

Conformal Prediction (CP) controls the prediction uncertainty of classification systems by producing a small prediction set, ensuring a predetermined probability that the true class lies within this set. This is commonly done by defining a score, based on the model predictions, and setting a threshold on this score using a validation set. In this study, we address the problem of CP calibration when we only have access to a calibration set with noisy labels. We show how we can estimate the noise-free conformal threshold based on the noisy labeled data. We derive a finite sample coverage guarantee for uniform noise that remains effective even in tasks with a large number of classes. We dub our approach Noise-Aware Conformal Prediction (NACP). We illustrate the performance of the proposed results on several standard image classification datasets with a large number of classes.

A critical component in the trustworthiness of LLMs is reliable uncertainty communication, yet LLMs often use assertive language when conveying false claims, leading to over-reliance and eroded trust. We present the first systematic study of faithful confidence calibration of LLMs, benchmarking models' ability to use linguistic expressions of uncertainty that faithfully reflect their intrinsic uncertainty, across a comprehensive array of models, datasets, and prompting strategies. Our results demonstrate that LLMs largely fail at this task, and that existing interventions are insufficient: standard prompt approaches provide only marginal gains, and existing, factuality-based calibration techniques can even harm faithful calibration. To address this critical gap, we introduce MetaFaith, a novel prompt-based calibration approach inspired by human metacognition. We show that MetaFaith robustly improves faithful calibration across diverse models and task domains, enabling up to 61% improvement in faithfulness and achieving an 83% win rate over original generations as judged by humans.

Large language model (LLM)-based agents have shown promise in tackling complex tasks by interacting dynamically with the environment. Existing work primarily focuses on behavior cloning from expert demonstrations or preference learning through exploratory trajectory sampling. However, these methods often struggle to address long-horizon tasks, where suboptimal actions accumulate step by step, causing agents to deviate from correct task trajectories. To address this, we highlight the importance of timely calibration and the need to automatically construct calibration trajectories for training agents. We propose Step-Level Trajectory Calibration (STeCa), a novel framework for LLM agent learning. Specifically, STeCa identifies suboptimal actions through a step-level reward comparison during exploration. It constructs calibrated trajectories using LLM-driven reflection, enabling agents to learn from improved decision-making processes. We finally leverage these calibrated trajectories with successful trajectories for reinforced training. Extensive experiments demonstrate that STeCa significantly outperforms existing methods. Further analysis highlights that timely calibration enables agents to complete tasks with greater robustness. Our code and data are available at https://github.com/WangHanLinHenry/STeCa.

Despite the impressive generalization capabilities of deep neural networks, they have been repeatedly shown to be overconfident when they are wrong. Fixing this issue is known as model calibration, and has consequently received much attention in the form of modified training schemes and post-training calibration procedures such as temperature scaling. While temperature scaling is frequently used because of its simplicity, it is often outperformed by modified training schemes. In this work, we identify a specific bottleneck for the performance of temperature scaling. We show that for empirical risk minimizers for a general set of distributions in which the supports of classes have overlaps, the performance of temperature scaling degrades with the amount of overlap between classes, and asymptotically becomes no better than random when there are a large number of classes. On the other hand, we prove that optimizing a modified form of the empirical risk induced by the Mixup data augmentation technique can in fact lead to reasonably good calibration performance, showing that training-time calibration may be necessary in some situations. We also verify that our theoretical results reflect practice by showing that Mixup significantly outperforms empirical risk minimization (with respect to multiple calibration metrics) on image classification benchmarks with class overlaps introduced in the form of label noise.

Computational sensing strategies often suffer from calibration errors in the physical implementation of their ideal sensing models. Such uncertainties are typically addressed by using multiple, accurately chosen training signals to recover the missing information on the sensing model, an approach that can be resource-consuming and cumbersome. Conversely, blind calibration does not employ any training signal, but corresponds to a bilinear inverse problem whose algorithmic solution is an open issue. We here address blind calibration as a non-convex problem for linear random sensing models, in which we aim to recover an unknown signal from its projections on sub-Gaussian random vectors, each subject to an unknown positive multiplicative factor (or gain). To solve this optimisation problem we resort to projected gradient descent starting from a suitable, carefully chosen initialisation point. An analysis of this algorithm allows us to show that it converges to the exact solution provided a sample complexity requirement is met, i.e., relating convergence to the amount of information collected during the sensing process. Interestingly, we show that this requirement grows linearly (up to log factors) in the number of unknowns of the problem. This sample complexity is found both in absence of prior information, as well as when subspace priors are available for both the signal and gains, allowing a further reduction of the number of observations required for our recovery guarantees to hold. Moreover, in the presence of noise we show how our descent algorithm yields a solution whose accuracy degrades gracefully with the amount of noise affecting the measurements. Finally, we present some numerical experiments in an imaging context, where our algorithm allows for a simple solution to blind calibration of the gains in a sensor array.

Large Language Models are known to capture real-world knowledge, allowing them to excel in many downstream tasks. Despite recent advances, these models are still prone to what are commonly known as hallucinations, causing them to emit unwanted and factually incorrect text. In this work, we propose a novel calibration method that can be used to combat hallucinations. We add a special [IDK] ("I don't know") token to the model's vocabulary and introduce an objective function that shifts probability mass to the [IDK] token for incorrect predictions. This approach allows the model to express uncertainty in its output explicitly. We evaluate our proposed method across multiple model architectures and factual downstream tasks. We find that models trained with our method are able to express uncertainty in places where they would previously make mistakes while suffering only a small loss of encoded knowledge. We further perform extensive ablation studies of multiple variations of our approach and provide a detailed analysis of the precision-recall tradeoff of our method.

Small instruct-tuned LLMs produce degenerate verbal confidence under minimal elicitation: ceiling rates above 95%, near-chance Type-2 AUROC, and Invalid validity profiles. We test whether confidence-conditioned supervised fine-tuning (CSFT) with self-consistency-derived targets can close the gap between internal information and verbal readout. A pre-registered Phase 0 protocol on Gemma 3 4B-it with a modal filter restricting training to items with correct modal answers produced a negative result: AUROC2 dropped from 0.554 to 0.509 due to label-entropy collapse in the training targets. An exploratory rescue removed the filter, training on all 2,000 calibration items. This produced a binary verbal correctness discriminator with AUROC2 = 0.774 on held-out TriviaQA, compressing a 10-sample self-consistency signal (AUROC2 = 0.999) into a single-pass readout exceeding logit entropy (0.701). The shuffled-target control showed no improvement (0.501). On MMLU, accuracy improved from 54.2% to 77.4% with the shuffled model at baseline (56.1%), supporting a target-dependent interpretation. The result is exploratory, binary rather than continuously calibrated, and observed at a single scale. It identifies two design lessons: confidence training requires label entropy, and correct targets regularise output format.

Post-Training Quantization (PTQ) has received significant attention because it requires only a small set of calibration data to quantize a full-precision model, which is more practical in real-world applications in which full access to a large training set is not available. However, it often leads to overfitting on the small calibration dataset. Several methods have been proposed to address this issue, yet they still rely on only the calibration set for the quantization and they do not validate the quantized model due to the lack of a validation set. In this work, we propose a novel meta-learning based approach to enhance the performance of post-training quantization. Specifically, to mitigate the overfitting problem, instead of only training the quantized model using the original calibration set without any validation during the learning process as in previous PTQ works, in our approach, we both train and validate the quantized model using two different sets of images. In particular, we propose a meta-learning based approach to jointly optimize a transformation network and a quantized model through bi-level optimization. The transformation network modifies the original calibration data and the modified data will be used as the training set to learn the quantized model with the objective that the quantized model achieves a good performance on the original calibration data. Extensive experiments on the widely used ImageNet dataset with different neural network architectures demonstrate that our approach outperforms the state-of-the-art PTQ methods.

Existing Referring Image Segmentation (RIS) methods typically require expensive pixel-level or box-level annotations for supervision. In this paper, we observe that the referring texts used in RIS already provide sufficient information to localize the target object. Hence, we propose a novel weakly-supervised RIS framework to formulate the target localization problem as a classification process to differentiate between positive and negative text expressions. While the referring text expressions for an image are used as positive expressions, the referring text expressions from other images can be used as negative expressions for this image. Our framework has three main novelties. First, we propose a bilateral prompt method to facilitate the classification process, by harmonizing the domain discrepancy between visual and linguistic features. Second, we propose a calibration method to reduce noisy background information and improve the correctness of the response maps for target object localization. Third, we propose a positive response map selection strategy to generate high-quality pseudo-labels from the enhanced response maps, for training a segmentation network for RIS inference. For evaluation, we propose a new metric to measure localization accuracy. Experiments on four benchmarks show that our framework achieves promising performances to existing fully-supervised RIS methods while outperforming state-of-the-art weakly-supervised methods adapted from related areas. Code is available at https://github.com/fawnliu/TRIS.

While multimodal large language models have advanced across text, image, and audio, personalization research has remained primarily vision-language, with unified omnimodal benchmarking that jointly covers text, image, and audio still limited, and lacking the methodological rigor to account for absent-persona scenarios or systematic grounding studies. We introduce Omni-Persona, the first comprehensive benchmark for omnimodal personalization. We formalize the task as cross-modal routing over the Persona Modality Graph, encompassing 4 task groups and 18 fine-grained tasks across {sim}750 items. To rigorously diagnose grounding behavior, we propose Calibrated Accuracy (mathrm{Cal)}, which jointly rewards correct grounding and appropriate abstention, incorporating absent-persona queries within a unified evaluation framework. On our dedicated experiments, three diagnostic findings emerge: (i) open-source models show a consistent audio-vs-visual grounding gap that RLVR partially narrows via dense rule-based supervision; (ii) answerable recall and parameter scale are incomplete diagnostics, since strong recall can coexist with absent-persona hallucination and larger models do not always achieve higher Cal, exposing calibration as a separate evaluation axis; and (iii) SFT is bounded by the difficulty of constructing annotated ground-truth supervision at scale, while RLVR generalizes more consistently through outcome-level verifiable feedback yet drifts toward conservative behavior and lower generation quality under our reward design. Omni-Persona thus serves as a diagnostic framework that surfaces the pitfalls of omnimodal personalization, guiding future post-training and reward design.

The ability of the deep learning model to recognize when a sample falls outside its learned distribution is critical for safe and reliable deployment. Recent state-of-the-art out-of-distribution (OOD) detection methods leverage activation shaping to improve the separation between in-distribution (ID) and OOD inputs. These approaches resort to sample-specific scaling but apply a static percentile threshold across all samples regardless of their nature, resulting in suboptimal ID-OOD separability. In this work, we propose AdaSCALE, an adaptive scaling procedure that dynamically adjusts the percentile threshold based on a sample's estimated OOD likelihood. This estimation leverages our key observation: OOD samples exhibit significantly more pronounced activation shifts at high-magnitude activations under minor perturbation compared to ID samples. AdaSCALE enables stronger scaling for likely ID samples and weaker scaling for likely OOD samples, yielding highly separable energy scores. Our approach achieves state-of-the-art OOD detection performance, outperforming the latest rival OptFS by 14.94 in near-OOD and 21.67 in far-OOD datasets in average FPR@95 metric on the ImageNet-1k benchmark across eight diverse architectures. The code is available at: https://github.com/sudarshanregmi/AdaSCALE/

We introduce TuneJury, an open, instance-level pairwise reward model for text-to-music that predicts a music preference score from a text prompt and an audio clip. The released checkpoint is trained on publicly available human-preference labels covering arena-style (A vs. B) votes, metric-alignment preference pairs, crowdsourced pairwise comparisons, and expert aesthetic ratings. The predicted score margin between two clips is well calibrated on our held-out test split, supporting data filtering via a simple score threshold. TuneJury generalizes to both held-out test pairs and out-of-distribution benchmarks, remaining competitive with prior baselines on the latter. For generators released after training, we introduce anchor calibration, a post-hoc, per-system Bradley-Terry calibration that recovers agreement at substantially better data efficiency than from-scratch retraining. The same frozen reward drives consistent reward-axis gains across three downstream applications: inference-time best-of-N selection, DITTO-style latent optimization, and expert-iteration post-training. TuneJury is available at https://github.com/yonghyunk1m/TuneJury.

Machine learning models are widely used, but can also often be wrong. Users would benefit from a reliable indication of whether a given output from a given model should be trusted, so a rational decision can be made whether to use the output or not. For example, outputs can be associated with a confidence measure; if this confidence measure is strongly associated with likelihood of correctness, then the model is said to be well-calibrated. A well-calibrated confidence measure can serve as a basis for rational, graduated decision-making on how much review and care is needed when using generated code. Calibration has so far been studied in mostly non-generative (e.g. classification) settings, especially in software engineering. However, generated code can quite often be wrong: Given generated code, developers must decide whether to use directly, use after varying intensity of careful review, or discard model-generated code. Thus, calibration is vital in generative settings. We make several contributions. We develop a framework for evaluating the calibration of code-generating models. We consider several tasks, correctness criteria, datasets, and approaches, and find that, by and large, generative code models we test are not well-calibrated out of the box. We then show how calibration can be improved using standard methods, such as Platt scaling. Since Platt scaling relies on the prior availability of correctness data, we evaluate the applicability and generalizability of Platt scaling in software engineering, discuss settings where it has good potential for practical use, and settings where it does not. Our contributions will lead to better-calibrated decision-making in the current use of code generated by language models, and offers a framework for future research to further improve calibration methods for generative models in software engineering.

Quantifying the uncertainty of predictions made by large language models (LLMs) in binary text classification tasks remains a challenge. Calibration, in the context of LLMs, refers to the alignment between the model's predicted probabilities and the actual correctness of its predictions. A well-calibrated model should produce probabilities that accurately reflect the likelihood of its predictions being correct. We propose a novel approach that utilizes the inductive Venn--Abers predictor (IVAP) to calibrate the probabilities associated with the output tokens corresponding to the binary labels. Our experiments on the BoolQ dataset using the Llama 2 model demonstrate that IVAP consistently outperforms the commonly used temperature scaling method for various label token choices, achieving well-calibrated probabilities while maintaining high predictive quality. Our findings contribute to the understanding of calibration techniques for LLMs and provide a practical solution for obtaining reliable uncertainty estimates in binary question answering tasks, enhancing the interpretability and trustworthiness of LLM predictions.

Semi-supervised learning (SSL) uses unlabeled data to improve the performance of machine learning models when labeled data is scarce. However, its real-world applications often face the label distribution mismatch problem, in which the unlabeled dataset includes instances whose ground-truth labels are absent from the labeled training dataset. Recent studies, referred to as safe SSL, have addressed this issue by using both classification and out-of-distribution (OOD) detection. However, the existing methods may suffer from overconfidence in deep neural networks, leading to increased SSL errors because of high confidence in incorrect pseudo-labels or OOD detection. To address this, we propose a novel method, CaliMatch, which calibrates both the classifier and the OOD detector to foster safe SSL. CaliMatch presents adaptive label smoothing and temperature scaling, which eliminates the need to manually tune the smoothing degree for effective calibration. We give a theoretical justification for why improving the calibration of both the classifier and the OOD detector is crucial in safe SSL. Extensive evaluations on CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100, SVHN, TinyImageNet, and ImageNet demonstrate that CaliMatch outperforms the existing methods in safe SSL tasks.

Although Neural Radiance Fields (NeRFs) have markedly improved novel view synthesis, accurate uncertainty quantification in their image predictions remains an open problem. The prevailing methods for estimating uncertainty, including the state-of-the-art Density-aware NeRF Ensembles (DANE) [29], quantify uncertainty without calibration. This frequently leads to over- or under-confidence in image predictions, which can undermine their real-world applications. In this paper, we propose a method which, for the first time, achieves calibrated uncertainties for NeRFs. To accomplish this, we overcome a significant challenge in adapting existing calibration techniques to NeRFs: a need to hold out ground truth images from the target scene, reducing the number of images left to train the NeRF. This issue is particularly problematic in sparse-view settings, where we can operate with as few as three images. To address this, we introduce the concept of a meta-calibrator that performs uncertainty calibration for NeRFs with a single forward pass without the need for holding out any images from the target scene. Our meta-calibrator is a neural network that takes as input the NeRF images and uncalibrated uncertainty maps and outputs a scene-specific calibration curve that corrects the NeRF's uncalibrated uncertainties. We show that the meta-calibrator can generalize on unseen scenes and achieves well-calibrated and state-of-the-art uncertainty for NeRFs, significantly beating DANE and other approaches. This opens opportunities to improve applications that rely on accurate NeRF uncertainty estimates such as next-best view planning and potentially more trustworthy image reconstruction for medical diagnosis. The code is available at https://niki-amini-naieni.github.io/instantcalibration.github.io/.

Micro-Action Recognition (MAR) has gained increasing attention due to its crucial role as a form of non-verbal communication in social interactions, with promising potential for applications in human communication and emotion analysis. However, current approaches often overlook the inherent ambiguity in micro-actions, which arises from the wide category range and subtle visual differences between categories. This oversight hampers the accuracy of micro-action recognition. In this paper, we propose a novel Prototypical Calibrating Ambiguous Network (PCAN) to unleash and mitigate the ambiguity of MAR. Firstly, we employ a hierarchical action-tree to identify the ambiguous sample, categorizing them into distinct sets of ambiguous samples of false negatives and false positives, considering both body- and action-level categories. Secondly, we implement an ambiguous contrastive refinement module to calibrate these ambiguous samples by regulating the distance between ambiguous samples and their corresponding prototypes. This calibration process aims to pull false negative (FN) samples closer to their respective prototypes and push false positive (FP) samples apart from their affiliated prototypes. In addition, we propose a new prototypical diversity amplification loss to strengthen the model's capacity by amplifying the differences between different prototypes. Finally, we propose a prototype-guided rectification to rectify prediction by incorporating the representability of prototypes. Extensive experiments conducted on the benchmark dataset demonstrate the superior performance of our method compared to existing approaches. The code is available at https://github.com/kunli-cs/PCAN.

Modern machine learning methods including deep learning have achieved great success in predictive accuracy for supervised learning tasks, but may still fall short in giving useful estimates of their predictive {\em uncertainty}. Quantifying uncertainty is especially critical in real-world settings, which often involve input distributions that are shifted from the training distribution due to a variety of factors including sample bias and non-stationarity. In such settings, well calibrated uncertainty estimates convey information about when a model's output should (or should not) be trusted. Many probabilistic deep learning methods, including Bayesian-and non-Bayesian methods, have been proposed in the literature for quantifying predictive uncertainty, but to our knowledge there has not previously been a rigorous large-scale empirical comparison of these methods under dataset shift. We present a large-scale benchmark of existing state-of-the-art methods on classification problems and investigate the effect of dataset shift on accuracy and calibration. We find that traditional post-hoc calibration does indeed fall short, as do several other previous methods. However, some methods that marginalize over models give surprisingly strong results across a broad spectrum of tasks.

The activation function plays a crucial role in model optimisation, yet the optimal choice remains unclear. For example, the Sigmoid activation is the de-facto activation in balanced classification tasks, however, in imbalanced classification, it proves inappropriate due to bias towards frequent classes. In this work, we delve deeper in this phenomenon by performing a comprehensive statistical analysis in the classification and intermediate layers of both balanced and imbalanced networks and we empirically show that aligning the activation function with the data distribution, enhances the performance in both balanced and imbalanced tasks. To this end, we propose the Adaptive Parametric Activation (APA) function, a novel and versatile activation function that unifies most common activation functions under a single formula. APA can be applied in both intermediate layers and attention layers, significantly outperforming the state-of-the-art on several imbalanced benchmarks such as ImageNet-LT, iNaturalist2018, Places-LT, CIFAR100-LT and LVIS and balanced benchmarks such as ImageNet1K, COCO and V3DET. The code is available at https://github.com/kostas1515/AGLU.

Despite major advances brought by diffusion-based models, current 3D texture generation systems remain hindered by cross-view inconsistency -- textures that appear convincing from one viewpoint often fail to align across others. We find that this issue arises from attention ambiguity, where unstructured full attention is applied indiscriminately across tokens and modalities, causing geometric confusion and unstable appearance-structure coupling. To address this, we introduce CaliTex, a framework of geometry-calibrated attention that explicitly aligns attention with 3D structure. It introduces two modules: Part-Aligned Attention that enforces spatial alignment across semantically matched parts, and Condition-Routed Attention which routes appearance information through geometry-conditioned pathways to maintain spatial fidelity. Coupled with a two-stage diffusion transformer, CaliTex makes geometric coherence an inherent behavior of the network rather than a byproduct of optimization. Empirically, CaliTex produces seamless and view-consistent textures and outperforms both open-source and commercial baselines.

The vulnerability of machine learning models to membership inference attacks has received much attention in recent years. However, existing attacks mostly remain impractical due to having high false positive rates, where non-member samples are often erroneously predicted as members. This type of error makes the predicted membership signal unreliable, especially since most samples are non-members in real world applications. In this work, we argue that membership inference attacks can benefit drastically from difficulty calibration, where an attack's predicted membership score is adjusted to the difficulty of correctly classifying the target sample. We show that difficulty calibration can significantly reduce the false positive rate of a variety of existing attacks without a loss in accuracy.

Recent advances in machine learning have significantly improved prediction accuracy in various applications. However, ensuring the calibration of probabilistic predictions remains a significant challenge. Despite efforts to enhance model calibration, the rigorous statistical evaluation of model calibration remains less explored. In this work, we develop confidence intervals the ell_2 Expected Calibration Error (ECE). We consider top-1-to-k calibration, which includes both the popular notion of confidence calibration as well as full calibration. For a debiased estimator of the ECE, we show asymptotic normality, but with different convergence rates and asymptotic variances for calibrated and miscalibrated models. We develop methods to construct asymptotically valid confidence intervals for the ECE, accounting for this behavior as well as non-negativity. Our theoretical findings are supported through extensive experiments, showing that our methods produce valid confidence intervals with shorter lengths compared to those obtained by resampling-based methods.

Activation patching is a standard method in mechanistic interpretability for localizing the components of a model responsible for specific behaviors, but it is computationally expensive to apply at scale. Attribution patching offers a faster, gradient-based approximation, yet suffers from noise and reduced reliability in deep, highly non-linear networks. In this work, we introduce Relevance Patching (RelP), which replaces the local gradients in attribution patching with propagation coefficients derived from Layer-wise Relevance Propagation (LRP). LRP propagates the network's output backward through the layers, redistributing relevance to lower-level components according to local propagation rules that ensure properties such as relevance conservation or improved signal-to-noise ratio. Like attribution patching, RelP requires only two forward passes and one backward pass, maintaining computational efficiency while improving faithfulness. We validate RelP across a range of models and tasks, showing that it more accurately approximates activation patching than standard attribution patching, particularly when analyzing residual stream and MLP outputs in the Indirect Object Identification (IOI) task. For instance, for MLP outputs in GPT-2 Large, attribution patching achieves a Pearson correlation of 0.006, whereas RelP reaches 0.956, highlighting the improvement offered by RelP. Additionally, we compare the faithfulness of sparse feature circuits identified by RelP and Integrated Gradients (IG), showing that RelP achieves comparable faithfulness without the extra computational cost associated with IG.

Calibrating deep learning models to yield uncertainty-aware predictions is crucial as deep neural networks get increasingly deployed in safety-critical applications. While existing post-hoc calibration methods achieve impressive results on in-domain test datasets, they are limited by their inability to yield reliable uncertainty estimates in domain-shift and out-of-domain (OOD) scenarios. We aim to bridge this gap by proposing DAC, an accuracy-preserving as well as Density-Aware Calibration method based on k-nearest-neighbors (KNN). In contrast to existing post-hoc methods, we utilize hidden layers of classifiers as a source for uncertainty-related information and study their importance. We show that DAC is a generic method that can readily be combined with state-of-the-art post-hoc methods. DAC boosts the robustness of calibration performance in domain-shift and OOD, while maintaining excellent in-domain predictive uncertainty estimates. We demonstrate that DAC leads to consistently better calibration across a large number of model architectures, datasets, and metrics. Additionally, we show that DAC improves calibration substantially on recent large-scale neural networks pre-trained on vast amounts of data.

The widely used ReLU is favored for its hardware efficiency, {as the implementation at inference is a one bit sign case,} yet suffers from issues such as the ``dying ReLU'' problem, where during training, neurons fail to activate and constantly remain at zero, as highlighted by Lu et al. Traditional approaches to mitigate this issue often introduce more complex and less hardware-friendly activation functions. In this work, we propose a Hysteresis Rectified Linear Unit (HeLU), an efficient activation function designed to address the ``dying ReLU'' problem with minimal complexity. Unlike traditional activation functions with fixed thresholds for training and inference, HeLU employs a variable threshold that refines the backpropagation. This refined mechanism allows simpler activation functions to achieve competitive performance comparable to their more complex counterparts without introducing unnecessary complexity or requiring inductive biases. Empirical evaluations demonstrate that HeLU enhances model generalization across diverse datasets, offering a promising solution for efficient and effective inference suitable for a wide range of neural network architectures.

Industrial visual sim-to-real is often described as transferring from synthetic images to real images, but industrial deployment usually involves a broader mismatch between available evidence and required decisions. A system may be built from CAD renderings, simulated RGB-D observations, normal reference images, synthetic defects, pretrained feature spaces, or language prompts, yet deployed under different sensors, lighting, materials, fixtures, calibration, production variation, and rare defect modes. This review reframes industrial visual sim-to-real as a domain-gap problem organized by prior availability. We distinguish CAD-available settings, where explicit object geometry can support rendering, calibration, pose estimation, segmentation, and test-time geometric verification; CAD-unavailable settings, where geometry is replaced by normal-reference appearance, feature distributions, teacher-student residuals, synthetic anomaly assumptions, foundation features, or vision-language priors; and boundary-prior settings, where approximate models, templates, reference views, or semantic correspondences preserve only part of the CAD role. This framing connects CAD-based detection and 6D pose-estimation literature with industrial anomaly and surface-inspection literature that is usually reviewed separately. To make the taxonomy concrete, we use empirical anchors on T-LESS/BOP, MVTec AD, and VisA. The anchors show that CAD render count alone does not close transfer; source-distribution design, detector capacity, and small real calibration can matter more. They also show that CAD at test time creates a distinct verification channel through mask, pose, and depth consistency, whereas CAD-unavailable inspection relies on calibrated normality and feature deviation. The review therefore argues against a single cross-task leaderboard and instead asks what prior grounds the deployment decision.

Safe deployment of graph neural networks (GNNs) under distribution shift requires models to provide accurate confidence indicators (CI). However, while it is well-known in computer vision that CI quality diminishes under distribution shift, this behavior remains understudied for GNNs. Hence, we begin with a case study on CI calibration under controlled structural and feature distribution shifts and demonstrate that increased expressivity or model size do not always lead to improved CI performance. Consequently, we instead advocate for the use of epistemic uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods to modulate CIs. To this end, we propose G-DeltaUQ, a new single model UQ method that extends the recently proposed stochastic centering framework to support structured data and partial stochasticity. Evaluated across covariate, concept, and graph size shifts, G-DeltaUQ not only outperforms several popular UQ methods in obtaining calibrated CIs, but also outperforms alternatives when CIs are used for generalization gap prediction or OOD detection. Overall, our work not only introduces a new, flexible GNN UQ method, but also provides novel insights into GNN CIs on safety-critical tasks.

Spiking Neural Networks (SNNs) offer low-latency and energy-efficient decision-making on neuromorphic hardware by mimicking the event-driven dynamics of biological neurons. However, the discrete and non-differentiable nature of spikes leads to unstable gradient propagation in directly trained SNNs, making Batch Normalization (BN) an important component for stabilizing training. In online Reinforcement Learning (RL), imprecise BN statistics hinder exploitation, resulting in slower convergence and suboptimal policies. While Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) can often omit BN, SNNs critically depend on it, limiting the adoption of SNNs for energy-efficient control on resource-constrained devices. To overcome this, we propose Confidence-adaptive and Re-calibration Batch Normalization (CaRe-BN), which introduces (i) a confidence-guided adaptive update strategy for BN statistics and (ii) a re-calibration mechanism to align distributions. By providing more accurate normalization, CaRe-BN stabilizes SNN optimization without disrupting the RL training process. Importantly, CaRe-BN does not alter inference, thus preserving the energy efficiency of SNNs in deployment. Extensive experiments on both discrete and continuous control benchmarks demonstrate that CaRe-BN improves SNN performance by up to 22.6% across different spiking neuron models and RL algorithms. Remarkably, SNNs equipped with CaRe-BN even surpass their ANN counterparts by 5.9%. These results highlight a new direction for BN techniques tailored to RL, paving the way for neuromorphic agents that are both efficient and high-performing. Code is available at https://github.com/xuzijie32/CaRe-BN.

Verbal confidence elicitation is widely used to extract uncertainty estimates from LLMs. We tested whether seven instruction-tuned open-weight models (3-9B parameters, four families) produce verbalised confidence that meets minimal validity criteria for item-level Type-2 discrimination under minimal numeric elicitation with greedy decoding. In a pre-registered study (OSF: osf.io/azbvx), 524 TriviaQA items were administered under numeric (0-100) and categorical (10-class) elicitation to eight models at Q5_K_M quantisation on consumer hardware, yielding 8,384 deterministic trials. A psychometric validity screen was applied to each model-format cell. All seven instruct models were classified Invalid on numeric confidence (H2 confirmed, 7/7 vs. predicted >=4/7), with a mean ceiling rate of 91.7% (H1 confirmed). Categorical elicitation did not rescue validity. Instead, it disrupted task performance in six of seven models, producing accuracy below 5% (H4 not confirmed). Token-level logprobability did not usefully predict verbalised confidence under the observed variance regime (H5 confirmed, mean cross-validated R^2 < 0.01). Within the reasoning-distilled model, reasoning-trace length showed a strong negative partial correlation with confidence (rho = -0.36, p < .001), consistent with the Reasoning Contamination Effect. These results do not imply that internal uncertainty representations are absent. They show that minimal verbal elicitation fails to preserve internal signals at the output interface in this model-size regime. Psychometric screening should precede any downstream use of such signals.

Large language models (LLMs) increasingly exhibit human-like patterns of pragmatic and social reasoning. This paper addresses two related questions: do LLMs approximate human social meaning not only qualitatively but also quantitatively, and can prompting strategies informed by pragmatic theory improve this approximation? To address the first, we introduce two calibration-focused metrics distinguishing structural fidelity from magnitude calibration: the Effect Size Ratio (ESR) and the Calibration Deviation Score (CDS). To address the second, we derive prompting conditions from two pragmatic assumptions: that social meaning arises from reasoning over linguistic alternatives, and that listeners infer speaker knowledge states and communicative motives. Applied to a case study on numerical (im)precision across three frontier LLMs, we find that all models reliably reproduce the qualitative structure of human social inferences but differ substantially in magnitude calibration. Prompting models to reason about speaker knowledge and motives most consistently reduces magnitude deviation, while prompting for alternative-awareness tends to amplify exaggeration. Combining both components is the only intervention that improves all calibration-sensitive metrics across all models, though fine-grained magnitude calibration remains only partially resolved. LLMs thus capture inferential structure while variably distorting inferential strength, and pragmatic theory provides a useful but incomplete handle for improving that approximation.

By design, average precision (AP) for object detection aims to treat all classes independently: AP is computed independently per category and averaged. On one hand, this is desirable as it treats all classes equally. On the other hand, it ignores cross-category confidence calibration, a key property in real-world use cases. Unfortunately, under important conditions (i.e., large vocabulary, high instance counts) the default implementation of AP is neither category independent, nor does it directly reward properly calibrated detectors. In fact, we show that on LVIS the default implementation produces a gameable metric, where a simple, un-intuitive re-ranking policy can improve AP by a large margin. To address these limitations, we introduce two complementary metrics. First, we present a simple fix to the default AP implementation, ensuring that it is independent across categories as originally intended. We benchmark recent LVIS detection advances and find that many reported gains do not translate to improvements under our new evaluation, suggesting recent improvements may arise from difficult to interpret changes to cross-category rankings. Given the importance of reliably benchmarking cross-category rankings, we consider a pooled version of AP (AP-Pool) that rewards properly calibrated detectors by directly comparing cross-category rankings. Finally, we revisit classical approaches for calibration and find that explicitly calibrating detectors improves state-of-the-art on AP-Pool by 1.7 points

We address the problem of network calibration adjusting miscalibrated confidences of deep neural networks. Many approaches to network calibration adopt a regularization-based method that exploits a regularization term to smooth the miscalibrated confidences. Although these approaches have shown the effectiveness on calibrating the networks, there is still a lack of understanding on the underlying principles of regularization in terms of network calibration. We present in this paper an in-depth analysis of existing regularization-based methods, providing a better understanding on how they affect to network calibration. Specifically, we have observed that 1) the regularization-based methods can be interpreted as variants of label smoothing, and 2) they do not always behave desirably. Based on the analysis, we introduce a novel loss function, dubbed ACLS, that unifies the merits of existing regularization methods, while avoiding the limitations. We show extensive experimental results for image classification and semantic segmentation on standard benchmarks, including CIFAR10, Tiny-ImageNet, ImageNet, and PASCAL VOC, demonstrating the effectiveness of our loss function.

Allocating more computation during inference time (test-time scaling) improves language model performance, especially for reasoning tasks. However, popular methods like Best-of-N sampling often show diminishing returns as N increases. To address this inefficiency, we introduce a general test-time calibration framework that adaptively modifies the model toward high-reward reasoning paths, with theoretical guarantees of improving the lower bound of expected reward under finite sampling, all without large language model (LLM) retraining. Within this framework, we propose CarBoN (Calibrated Best-of-N), a two-phase method that first explores the solution space and then learns a calibration of the logits via an input-specific temperature T and additive shift vector delta, guiding generation toward more reliable reasoning. Experiments on MATH-500 and AIME-2024 show that CarBoN improves efficiency, with up to 4times fewer rollouts to reach the same accuracy, while often achieving higher accuracy under fixed budgets. We also analyze the complementary roles of T and delta in balancing output diversity and correctness, and demonstrate that the framework also generalizes to step-level sampling strategies such as beam search. For more information, please refer to our project page at huggingface.co/spaces/TrustSafeAI/Test-Time-Calibration.

Electroencephalography (EEG) foundation models have recently emerged as a promising paradigm for brain-computer interfaces (BCIs), aiming to learn transferable neural representations from large-scale heterogeneous recordings. Despite rapid progresses, there lacks fair and comprehensive comparisons of existing EEG foundation models, due to inconsistent pre-training objectives, preprocessing choices, and downstream evaluation protocols. This paper fills this gap. We first review 50 representative models and organize their design choices into a unified taxonomic framework including data standardization, model architectures, and self-supervised pre-training strategies. We then evaluate 12 open-source foundation models and competitive specialist baselines across 13 EEG datasets spanning nine BCI paradigms. Emphasizing real-world deployments, we consider both cross-subject generalization under a leave-one-subject-out protocol and rapid calibration under a within-subject few-shot setting. We further compare full-parameter fine-tuning with linear probing to assess the transferability of pre-trained representations, and examine the relationship between model scale and downstream performance. Our results indicate that: 1) linear probing is frequently insufficient; 2) specialist models trained from scratch remain competitive across many tasks; and, 3) larger foundation models do not necessarily yield better generalization performance under current data regimes and training practices.

Volumetric (4D) performance capture is fundamental for AR/VR content generation. Whereas previous work in 4D performance capture has shown impressive results in studio settings, the technology is still far from being accessible to a typical consumer who, at best, might own a single RGBD sensor. Thus, in this work, we propose a method to synthesize free viewpoint renderings using a single RGBD camera. The key insight is to leverage previously seen "calibration" images of a given user to extrapolate what should be rendered in a novel viewpoint from the data available in the sensor. Given these past observations from multiple viewpoints, and the current RGBD image from a fixed view, we propose an end-to-end framework that fuses both these data sources to generate novel renderings of the performer. We demonstrate that the method can produce high fidelity images, and handle extreme changes in subject pose and camera viewpoints. We also show that the system generalizes to performers not seen in the training data. We run exhaustive experiments demonstrating the effectiveness of the proposed semi-parametric model (i.e. calibration images available to the neural network) compared to other state of the art machine learned solutions. Further, we compare the method with more traditional pipelines that employ multi-view capture. We show that our framework is able to achieve compelling results, with substantially less infrastructure than previously required.

Tool-using agents that act in the world need to be both useful and safe. Well-calibrated model confidences can be used to weigh the risk versus reward of potential actions, but prior work shows that many models are poorly calibrated. Inspired by interpretability literature exploring the internals of models, we propose a novel class of model-internal confidence estimators (MICE) to better assess confidence when calling tools. MICE first decodes from each intermediate layer of the language model using logitLens and then computes similarity scores between each layer's generation and the final output. These features are fed into a learned probabilistic classifier to assess confidence in the decoded output. On the simulated trial and error (STE) tool-calling dataset using Llama3 models, we find that MICE beats or matches the baselines on smoothed expected calibration error. Using MICE confidences to determine whether to call a tool significantly improves over strong baselines on a new metric, expected tool-calling utility. Further experiments show that MICE is sample-efficient, can generalize zero-shot to unseen APIs, and results in higher tool-calling utility in scenarios with varying risk levels. Our code is open source, available at https://github.com/microsoft/mice_for_cats.

Camera-LiDAR extrinsic calibration is a critical task for multi-sensor fusion in autonomous systems, such as self-driving vehicles and mobile robots. Traditional techniques often require manual intervention or specific environments, making them labour-intensive and error-prone. Existing deep learning-based self-calibration methods focus on small realignments and still rely on initial estimates, limiting their practicality. In this paper, we present PseudoCal, a novel self-calibration method that overcomes these limitations by leveraging the pseudo-LiDAR concept and working directly in the 3D space instead of limiting itself to the camera field of view. In typical autonomous vehicle and robotics contexts and conventions, PseudoCal is able to perform one-shot calibration quasi-independently of initial parameter estimates, addressing extreme cases that remain unsolved by existing approaches.