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Aug 12

Exploring the cloud of feature interaction scores in a Rashomon set

Interactions among features are central to understanding the behavior of machine learning models. Recent research has made significant strides in detecting and quantifying feature interactions in single predictive models. However, we argue that the feature interactions extracted from a single pre-specified model may not be trustworthy since: a well-trained predictive model may not preserve the true feature interactions and there exist multiple well-performing predictive models that differ in feature interaction strengths. Thus, we recommend exploring feature interaction strengths in a model class of approximately equally accurate predictive models. In this work, we introduce the feature interaction score (FIS) in the context of a Rashomon set, representing a collection of models that achieve similar accuracy on a given task. We propose a general and practical algorithm to calculate the FIS in the model class. We demonstrate the properties of the FIS via synthetic data and draw connections to other areas of statistics. Additionally, we introduce a Halo plot for visualizing the feature interaction variance in high-dimensional space and a swarm plot for analyzing FIS in a Rashomon set. Experiments with recidivism prediction and image classification illustrate how feature interactions can vary dramatically in importance for similarly accurate predictive models. Our results suggest that the proposed FIS can provide valuable insights into the nature of feature interactions in machine learning models.

  • 4 authors
·
May 17, 2023

shapiq: Shapley Interactions for Machine Learning

Originally rooted in game theory, the Shapley Value (SV) has recently become an important tool in machine learning research. Perhaps most notably, it is used for feature attribution and data valuation in explainable artificial intelligence. Shapley Interactions (SIs) naturally extend the SV and address its limitations by assigning joint contributions to groups of entities, which enhance understanding of black box machine learning models. Due to the exponential complexity of computing SVs and SIs, various methods have been proposed that exploit structural assumptions or yield probabilistic estimates given limited resources. In this work, we introduce shapiq, an open-source Python package that unifies state-of-the-art algorithms to efficiently compute SVs and any-order SIs in an application-agnostic framework. Moreover, it includes a benchmarking suite containing 11 machine learning applications of SIs with pre-computed games and ground-truth values to systematically assess computational performance across domains. For practitioners, shapiq is able to explain and visualize any-order feature interactions in predictions of models, including vision transformers, language models, as well as XGBoost and LightGBM with TreeSHAP-IQ. With shapiq, we extend shap beyond feature attributions and consolidate the application of SVs and SIs in machine learning that facilitates future research. The source code and documentation are available at https://github.com/mmschlk/shapiq.

  • 6 authors
·
Oct 1, 2024

On Relation-Specific Neurons in Large Language Models

In large language models (LLMs), certain neurons can store distinct pieces of knowledge learned during pretraining. While knowledge typically appears as a combination of relations and entities, it remains unclear whether some neurons focus on a relation itself -- independent of any entity. We hypothesize such neurons detect a relation in the input text and guide generation involving such a relation. To investigate this, we study the Llama-2 family on a chosen set of relations with a statistics-based method. Our experiments demonstrate the existence of relation-specific neurons. We measure the effect of selectively deactivating candidate neurons specific to relation r on the LLM's ability to handle (1) facts whose relation is r and (2) facts whose relation is a different relation r' neq r. With respect to their capacity for encoding relation information, we give evidence for the following three properties of relation-specific neurons. (i) Neuron cumulativity. The neurons for r present a cumulative effect so that deactivating a larger portion of them results in the degradation of more facts in r. (ii) Neuron versatility. Neurons can be shared across multiple closely related as well as less related relations. Some relation neurons transfer across languages. (iii) Neuron interference. Deactivating neurons specific to one relation can improve LLM generation performance for facts of other relations. We will make our code publicly available at https://github.com/cisnlp/relation-specific-neurons.

cis-lmu CIS, LMU Munich
·
Feb 24, 2025 2

A Large-Scale Dataset and Benchmark: Do Protein-Ligand Models Learn Binding Sites or Just Binding Likelihood?

Protein-ligand modeling underpins computational drug discovery and molecular design. Existing protein-ligand benchmarks typically evaluate whether a protein and ligand interact and how strongly they bind, through tasks such as binary binding prediction and affinity regression. However, these evaluations provide limited evidence of whether models can localize binding sites or identify the non-covalent interactions underlying molecular recognition. To address this gap, we introduce InteractBind, a large-scale protein-ligand dataset comprising approximately 100k protein-ligand pairs, together with a benchmark for fine-grained evaluation. The core fine-grained task is that of binding-site localization, which uses protein-residue and ligand-atom interaction maps spanning six major types of non-covalent interactions to assess whether model-derived interaction maps localize binding sites. InteractBind further includes binding affinity and protein similarity-controlled splits to support realistic generalization assessment. Using InteractBind, we evaluate eight existing sequence-based and interaction-aware models, assessing binary binding prediction and binding-site localization. Results reveal limited binding-site localization despite strong binary binding prediction, with marked variation across non-covalent interaction types. Overall, InteractBind establishes a benchmark paradigm that encourages the development of more interpretable and physically grounded protein-ligand models.

  • 7 authors
·
May 20

AI for Mathematics: Progress, Challenges, and Prospects

AI for Mathematics (AI4Math) has emerged as a distinct field that leverages machine learning to navigate mathematical landscapes historically intractable for early symbolic systems. While mid-20th-century symbolic approaches successfully automated formal logic, they faced severe scalability limitations due to the combinatorial explosion of the search space. The recent integration of data-driven approaches has revitalized this pursuit. In this review, we provide a systematic overview of AI4Math, highlighting its primary focus on developing AI models to support mathematical research. Crucially, we emphasize that this is not merely the application of AI to mathematical activities; it also encompasses the development of stronger AI systems where the rigorous nature of mathematics serves as a premier testbed for advancing general reasoning capabilities. We categorize existing research into two complementary directions: problem-specific modeling, involving the design of specialized architectures for distinct mathematical tasks, and general-purpose modeling, focusing on foundation models capable of broader reasoning, retrieval, and exploratory workflows. We conclude by discussing key challenges and prospects, advocating for AI systems that go beyond facilitating formal correctness to enabling the discovery of meaningful results and unified theories, recognizing that the true value of a proof lies in the insights and tools it offers to the broader mathematical landscape.

  • 2 authors
·
Jan 19

Evaluating Relational Reasoning in LLMs with REL

Relational reasoning is the ability to infer relations that jointly bind multiple entities, attributes, or variables. This ability is central to scientific reasoning, but existing evaluations of relational reasoning in large language models often focus on structured inputs such as tables, graphs, or synthetic tasks, and do not isolate the difficulty introduced by higher-arity relational binding. We study this problem through the lens of Relational Complexity (RC), which we define as the minimum number of independent entities or operands that must be simultaneously bound to apply a relation. RC provides a principled way to vary reasoning difficulty while controlling for confounders such as input size, vocabulary, and representational choices. Building on RC, we introduce REL, a generative benchmark framework spanning algebra, chemistry, and biology that varies RC within each domain. Across frontier LLMs, performance degrades consistently and monotonically as RC increases, even when the total number of entities is held fixed. This failure mode persists with increased test-time compute and in-context learning, suggesting a limitation tied to the arity of the required relational binding rather than to insufficient inference steps or lack of exposure to examples. Our results identify a regime of higher-arity reasoning in which current models struggle, and motivate re-examining benchmarks through the lens of relational complexity.

  • 5 authors
·
Apr 13

NewtonBench: Benchmarking Generalizable Scientific Law Discovery in LLM Agents

Large language models are emerging as powerful tools for scientific law discovery, a foundational challenge in AI-driven science. However, existing benchmarks for this task suffer from a fundamental methodological trilemma, forcing a trade-off between scientific relevance, scalability, and resistance to memorization. Furthermore, they oversimplify discovery as static function fitting, failing to capture the authentic scientific process of uncovering embedded laws through the interactive exploration of complex model systems. To address these critical gaps, we introduce NewtonBench, a benchmark comprising 324 scientific law discovery tasks across 12 physics domains. Our design mitigates the evaluation trilemma by using metaphysical shifts - systematic alterations of canonical laws - to generate a vast suite of problems that are scalable, scientifically relevant, and memorization-resistant. Moreover, we elevate the evaluation from static function fitting to interactive model discovery, requiring agents to experimentally probe simulated complex systems to uncover hidden principles. Our extensive experiment reveals a clear but fragile capability for discovery in frontier LLMs: this ability degrades precipitously with increasing system complexity and exhibits extreme sensitivity to observational noise. Notably, we uncover a paradoxical effect of tool assistance: providing a code interpreter can hinder more capable models by inducing a premature shift from exploration to exploitation, causing them to satisfice on suboptimal solutions. These results demonstrate that robust, generalizable discovery in complex, interactive environments remains the core challenge. By providing a scalable, robust, and scientifically authentic testbed, NewtonBench offers a crucial tool for measuring true progress and guiding the development of next-generation AI agents capable of genuine scientific discovery.

  • 13 authors
·
Oct 8, 2025 2

Energy-Based Concept Bottleneck Models: Unifying Prediction, Concept Intervention, and Probabilistic Interpretations

Existing methods, such as concept bottleneck models (CBMs), have been successful in providing concept-based interpretations for black-box deep learning models. They typically work by predicting concepts given the input and then predicting the final class label given the predicted concepts. However, (1) they often fail to capture the high-order, nonlinear interaction between concepts, e.g., correcting a predicted concept (e.g., "yellow breast") does not help correct highly correlated concepts (e.g., "yellow belly"), leading to suboptimal final accuracy; (2) they cannot naturally quantify the complex conditional dependencies between different concepts and class labels (e.g., for an image with the class label "Kentucky Warbler" and a concept "black bill", what is the probability that the model correctly predicts another concept "black crown"), therefore failing to provide deeper insight into how a black-box model works. In response to these limitations, we propose Energy-based Concept Bottleneck Models (ECBMs). Our ECBMs use a set of neural networks to define the joint energy of candidate (input, concept, class) tuples. With such a unified interface, prediction, concept correction, and conditional dependency quantification are then represented as conditional probabilities, which are generated by composing different energy functions. Our ECBMs address both limitations of existing CBMs, providing higher accuracy and richer concept interpretations. Empirical results show that our approach outperforms the state-of-the-art on real-world datasets.

  • 5 authors
·
Jan 25, 2024

Enhancing Neural Subset Selection: Integrating Background Information into Set Representations

Learning neural subset selection tasks, such as compound selection in AI-aided drug discovery, have become increasingly pivotal across diverse applications. The existing methodologies in the field primarily concentrate on constructing models that capture the relationship between utility function values and subsets within their respective supersets. However, these approaches tend to overlook the valuable information contained within the superset when utilizing neural networks to model set functions. In this work, we address this oversight by adopting a probabilistic perspective. Our theoretical findings demonstrate that when the target value is conditioned on both the input set and subset, it is essential to incorporate an invariant sufficient statistic of the superset into the subset of interest for effective learning. This ensures that the output value remains invariant to permutations of the subset and its corresponding superset, enabling identification of the specific superset from which the subset originated. Motivated by these insights, we propose a simple yet effective information aggregation module designed to merge the representations of subsets and supersets from a permutation invariance perspective. Comprehensive empirical evaluations across diverse tasks and datasets validate the enhanced efficacy of our approach over conventional methods, underscoring the practicality and potency of our proposed strategies in real-world contexts.

  • 8 authors
·
Feb 5, 2024

Simplicial Closure and higher-order link prediction

Networks provide a powerful formalism for modeling complex systems by using a model of pairwise interactions. But much of the structure within these systems involves interactions that take place among more than two nodes at once; for example, communication within a group rather than person-to person, collaboration among a team rather than a pair of coauthors, or biological interaction between a set of molecules rather than just two. Such higher-order interactions are ubiquitous, but their empirical study has received limited attention, and little is known about possible organizational principles of such structures. Here we study the temporal evolution of 19 datasets with explicit accounting for higher-order interactions. We show that there is a rich variety of structure in our datasets but datasets from the same system types have consistent patterns of higher-order structure. Furthermore, we find that tie strength and edge density are competing positive indicators of higher-order organization, and these trends are consistent across interactions involving differing numbers of nodes. To systematically further the study of theories for such higher-order structures, we propose higher-order link prediction as a benchmark problem to assess models and algorithms that predict higher-order structure. We find a fundamental differences from traditional pairwise link prediction, with a greater role for local rather than long-range information in predicting the appearance of new interactions.

  • 5 authors
·
Feb 19, 2018

When Does q-error Predict Plan Regret? Three Regimes of Cardinality-Estimation Error

Cardinality-estimation (CE) research ranks estimators by q-error, yet it is well known that q-error is an imperfect proxy for query-plan quality. We give a measurement-driven account of when it is a good proxy and when it is not, and why. Modeling plan selection as an argmin over a piecewise-linear cost landscape, we find that plan regret (the cost of the chosen plan relative to the optimal, under true cardinalities) is governed by plan-cost geometry in a regime-dependent way. (i) For small errors, a true-point condition number kappa predicts regret and out-predicts q-error; its predictive power decays to zero as error grows, as a local linearization must. (ii) For large errors -- where deployed learned estimators operate -- an estimator-independent average-case sub-optimality measure ACS-infinity predicts which queries are regret-prone (Spearman rho ~ 0.54 on STATS-CEB), while q-error is nearly uninformative at the query level (rho ~ 0.05). (iii) The worst case is Haritsa's maximum sub-optimality (MSO). The three are one cost-ratio spectrum under three weightings. We prove a limit law ACS-infinity = sum_k r_k pi_k with cardinality-independent combinatorial weights, and validate every claim on STATS-CEB and JOB-light with four released estimators under pre-registered decision rules, and confirm on real PostgreSQL runtime that ACS-infinity predicts regret where q-error does not. The contribution is conceptual and empirical -- an average-case companion to worst-case robust query optimization, and a characterization of when an accuracy metric tracks plan quality -- rather than a new estimator. Code and the full pre-registration are public.

  • 2 authors
·
Jun 13

SetLexSem Challenge: Using Set Operations to Evaluate the Lexical and Semantic Robustness of Language Models

Set theory is foundational to mathematics and, when sets are finite, to reasoning about the world. An intelligent system should perform set operations consistently, regardless of superficial variations in the operands. Initially designed for semantically-oriented NLP tasks, large language models (LLMs) are now being evaluated on algorithmic tasks. Because sets are comprised of arbitrary symbols (e.g. numbers, words), they provide an opportunity to test, systematically, the invariance of LLMs' algorithmic abilities under simple lexical or semantic variations. To this end, we present the SetLexSem Challenge, a synthetic benchmark that evaluates the performance of LLMs on set operations. SetLexSem assesses the robustness of LLMs' instruction-following abilities under various conditions, focusing on the set operations and the nature and construction of the set members. Evaluating seven LLMs with SetLexSem, we find that they exhibit poor robustness to variation in both operation and operands. We show -- via the framework's systematic sampling of set members along lexical and semantic dimensions -- that LLMs are not only not robust to variation along these dimensions but demonstrate unique failure modes in particular, easy-to-create semantic groupings of "deceptive" sets. We find that rigorously measuring language model robustness to variation in frequency and length is challenging and present an analysis that measures them independently. The code for reproducing the results of this paper, and for generating the SetLexSem Challenge dataset, is available at https://github.com/amazon-science/SetLexSem-Challenge{https://github.com/amazon-science/SetLexSem-Challenge}.

  • 3 authors
·
Nov 10, 2024

Sparsity-Constrained Optimal Transport

Regularized optimal transport (OT) is now increasingly used as a loss or as a matching layer in neural networks. Entropy-regularized OT can be computed using the Sinkhorn algorithm but it leads to fully-dense transportation plans, meaning that all sources are (fractionally) matched with all targets. To address this issue, several works have investigated quadratic regularization instead. This regularization preserves sparsity and leads to unconstrained and smooth (semi) dual objectives, that can be solved with off-the-shelf gradient methods. Unfortunately, quadratic regularization does not give direct control over the cardinality (number of nonzeros) of the transportation plan. We propose in this paper a new approach for OT with explicit cardinality constraints on the transportation plan. Our work is motivated by an application to sparse mixture of experts, where OT can be used to match input tokens such as image patches with expert models such as neural networks. Cardinality constraints ensure that at most k tokens are matched with an expert, which is crucial for computational performance reasons. Despite the nonconvexity of cardinality constraints, we show that the corresponding (semi) dual problems are tractable and can be solved with first-order gradient methods. Our method can be thought as a middle ground between unregularized OT (recovered in the limit case k=1) and quadratically-regularized OT (recovered when k is large enough). The smoothness of the objectives increases as k increases, giving rise to a trade-off between convergence speed and sparsity of the optimal plan.

  • 3 authors
·
Sep 30, 2022

Multimodal Learning Without Labeled Multimodal Data: Guarantees and Applications

In many machine learning systems that jointly learn from multiple modalities, a core research question is to understand the nature of multimodal interactions: the emergence of new task-relevant information during learning from both modalities that was not present in either alone. We study this challenge of interaction quantification in a semi-supervised setting with only labeled unimodal data and naturally co-occurring multimodal data (e.g., unlabeled images and captions, video and corresponding audio) but when labeling them is time-consuming. Using a precise information-theoretic definition of interactions, our key contributions are the derivations of lower and upper bounds to quantify the amount of multimodal interactions in this semi-supervised setting. We propose two lower bounds based on the amount of shared information between modalities and the disagreement between separately trained unimodal classifiers, and derive an upper bound through connections to approximate algorithms for min-entropy couplings. We validate these estimated bounds and show how they accurately track true interactions. Finally, two semi-supervised multimodal applications are explored based on these theoretical results: (1) analyzing the relationship between multimodal performance and estimated interactions, and (2) self-supervised learning that embraces disagreement between modalities beyond agreement as is typically done.

  • 9 authors
·
Jun 7, 2023

Math Agents: Computational Infrastructure, Mathematical Embedding, and Genomics

The advancement in generative AI could be boosted with more accessible mathematics. Beyond human-AI chat, large language models (LLMs) are emerging in programming, algorithm discovery, and theorem proving, yet their genomics application is limited. This project introduces Math Agents and mathematical embedding as fresh entries to the "Moore's Law of Mathematics", using a GPT-based workflow to convert equations from literature into LaTeX and Python formats. While many digital equation representations exist, there's a lack of automated large-scale evaluation tools. LLMs are pivotal as linguistic user interfaces, providing natural language access for human-AI chat and formal languages for large-scale AI-assisted computational infrastructure. Given the infinite formal possibility spaces, Math Agents, which interact with math, could potentially shift us from "big data" to "big math". Math, unlike the more flexible natural language, has properties subject to proof, enabling its use beyond traditional applications like high-validation math-certified icons for AI alignment aims. This project aims to use Math Agents and mathematical embeddings to address the ageing issue in information systems biology by applying multiscalar physics mathematics to disease models and genomic data. Generative AI with episodic memory could help analyse causal relations in longitudinal health records, using SIR Precision Health models. Genomic data is suggested for addressing the unsolved Alzheimer's disease problem.

  • 4 authors
·
Jul 4, 2023

Training LLMs to Enforce Multi-Level Instruction Hierarchies via Gravity-Weighted Direct Preference Optimization

Production LLMs receive instructions from sources with very different levels of trust, yet attend to every token with uniform architectural privilege. This is the structural vulnerability that enables malicious prompt injections and, more broadly, leaves models without a principled way to resolve conflicts between legitimate but competing instructions. A common training-based response is to teach models an explicit instruction hierarchy; existing approaches, however, formalize hierarchies of only three or four levels, treat all violations as equally severe, and rarely evaluate the full set of pairwise level interactions. We formalize a k-level instruction hierarchy problem and instantiate it for k=5, yielding ten pairwise priority relations that a compliant model must enforce. We then introduce Gravity-Weighted DPO (GW-DPO), a preference-optimization objective whose per-sample offset scales with the structural distance between conflicting levels under a linear or bilateral schedule, the latter weighting severity by both the privilege gap and the privilege of the victim level. Combined with hierarchy-specific delimiter tokens (Chen et al., 2025) and Instructional Segment Embeddings (ISE; Wu et al., 2025), GW-DPO with the bilateral schedule Pareto-improves over standard DPO and the linear variant on Llama-3.1-8B-Instruct, raising macro pairwise priority adherence while keeping over-refusal at half the standard DPO rate. Ablations isolate ISE as a refusal-threshold calibrator and recast five- versus three-level training as a generality-specialization tradeoff.

  • 2 authors
·
Jun 8

Studying Large Language Model Generalization with Influence Functions

When trying to gain better visibility into a machine learning model in order to understand and mitigate the associated risks, a potentially valuable source of evidence is: which training examples most contribute to a given behavior? Influence functions aim to answer a counterfactual: how would the model's parameters (and hence its outputs) change if a given sequence were added to the training set? While influence functions have produced insights for small models, they are difficult to scale to large language models (LLMs) due to the difficulty of computing an inverse-Hessian-vector product (IHVP). We use the Eigenvalue-corrected Kronecker-Factored Approximate Curvature (EK-FAC) approximation to scale influence functions up to LLMs with up to 52 billion parameters. In our experiments, EK-FAC achieves similar accuracy to traditional influence function estimators despite the IHVP computation being orders of magnitude faster. We investigate two algorithmic techniques to reduce the cost of computing gradients of candidate training sequences: TF-IDF filtering and query batching. We use influence functions to investigate the generalization patterns of LLMs, including the sparsity of the influence patterns, increasing abstraction with scale, math and programming abilities, cross-lingual generalization, and role-playing behavior. Despite many apparently sophisticated forms of generalization, we identify a surprising limitation: influences decay to near-zero when the order of key phrases is flipped. Overall, influence functions give us a powerful new tool for studying the generalization properties of LLMs.

  • 17 authors
·
Aug 7, 2023

APPO: Agentic Procedural Policy Optimization

Recent advances in agentic Reinforcement Learning (RL) have substantially improved the multi-turn tool-use capabilities of large language model agents. However, most existing methods assign credit over coarse heuristic units, such as tool-call boundaries or fixed workflows, making it difficult to identify which intermediate decisions influence downstream outcomes. In this work, we study agentic RL from two perspectives: where to branch and how to assign credit after branching. Our pilot analysis shows that influential decision points are broadly distributed throughout the generated sequence rather than concentrated at tool calls, while token entropy alone does not reliably reflect their impact on final outcomes. Motivated by these observations, we propose Agentic Procedural Policy Optimization (APPO), which shifts branching and credit assignment from coarse interaction units to fine-grained decision points in the sequence. APPO selects branching locations using a Branching Score that combines token uncertainty with policy-induced likelihood gains of subsequent continuations, enabling more targeted exploration while filtering out spurious high-entropy positions. It further introduces procedure-level advantage scaling to better distribute credit across branched rollouts. Experiments on 13 benchmarks show that APPO consistently improves strong agentic RL baselines by nearly 4 points, while keeping efficient tool-calls and maintaining behavior interpretability.

  • 8 authors
·
Jun 10 4

LLM-42: Enabling Determinism in LLM Inference with Verified Speculation

In LLM inference, the same prompt may yield different outputs across different runs. At the system level, this non-determinism arises from floating-point non-associativity combined with dynamic batching and GPU kernels whose reduction orders vary with batch size. A straightforward way to eliminate non-determinism is to disable dynamic batching during inference, but doing so severely degrades throughput. Another approach is to make kernels batch-invariant; however, this tightly couples determinism to kernel design, requiring new implementations. This coupling also imposes fixed runtime overheads, regardless of how much of the workload actually requires determinism. Inspired by ideas from speculative decoding, we present LLM-42, a scheduling-based approach to enable determinism in LLM inference. Our key observation is that if a sequence is in a consistent state, the next emitted token is likely to be consistent even with dynamic batching. Moreover, most GPU kernels use shape-consistent reductions. Leveraging these insights, LLM-42 decodes tokens using a non-deterministic fast path and enforces determinism via a lightweight verify-rollback loop. The verifier replays candidate tokens under a fixed-shape reduction schedule, commits those that are guaranteed to be consistent across runs, and rolls back those violating determinism. LLM-42 mostly re-uses existing kernels unchanged and incurs overhead only in proportion to the traffic that requires determinism.

  • 4 authors
·
Jan 29

Predictive Multiplicity in Probabilistic Classification

Machine learning models are often used to inform real world risk assessment tasks: predicting consumer default risk, predicting whether a person suffers from a serious illness, or predicting a person's risk to appear in court. Given multiple models that perform almost equally well for a prediction task, to what extent do predictions vary across these models? If predictions are relatively consistent for similar models, then the standard approach of choosing the model that optimizes a penalized loss suffices. But what if predictions vary significantly for similar models? In machine learning, this is referred to as predictive multiplicity i.e. the prevalence of conflicting predictions assigned by near-optimal competing models. In this paper, we present a framework for measuring predictive multiplicity in probabilistic classification (predicting the probability of a positive outcome). We introduce measures that capture the variation in risk estimates over the set of competing models, and develop optimization-based methods to compute these measures efficiently and reliably for convex empirical risk minimization problems. We demonstrate the incidence and prevalence of predictive multiplicity in real-world tasks. Further, we provide insight into how predictive multiplicity arises by analyzing the relationship between predictive multiplicity and data set characteristics (outliers, separability, and majority-minority structure). Our results emphasize the need to report predictive multiplicity more widely.

  • 3 authors
·
Jun 2, 2022

Super(ficial)-alignment: Strong Models May Deceive Weak Models in Weak-to-Strong Generalization

Superalignment, where humans are weak supervisors of superhuman models, has become an important and widely discussed issue in the current era of rapid development of Large Language Models (LLMs). The recent work preliminarily studies this problem by using weak models to supervise strong models. It discovers that weakly supervised strong students can consistently outperform weak teachers towards the alignment target, leading to a weak-to-strong generalization phenomenon. However, we are concerned that behind such a promising phenomenon, whether there exists an issue of weak-to-strong deception, where strong models may deceive weak models by exhibiting well-aligned in areas known to weak models but producing misaligned behaviors in cases weak models do not know. We then take an initial step towards exploring this security issue in a specific but realistic multi-objective alignment case, where there may be some alignment targets conflicting with each other (e.g., helpfulness v.s. harmlessness). Such a conflict is likely to cause strong models to deceive weak models in one alignment dimension to gain high reward in other alignment dimension. Our experiments on both the reward modeling task and the preference optimization scenario indicate: (1) the weak-to-strong deception exists; (2) the deception phenomenon may intensify as the capability gap between weak and strong models increases. We also discuss potential solutions and find bootstrapping with an intermediate model can mitigate the deception to some extent. Our work highlights the urgent need to pay more attention to the true reliability of superalignment.

  • 5 authors
·
Jun 17, 2024 2

Higher-Order Knowledge Representations for Agentic Scientific Reasoning

Scientific inquiry requires systems-level reasoning that integrates heterogeneous experimental data, cross-domain knowledge, and mechanistic evidence into coherent explanations. While Large Language Models (LLMs) offer inferential capabilities, they often depend on retrieval-augmented contexts that lack structural depth. Traditional Knowledge Graphs (KGs) attempt to bridge this gap, yet their pairwise constraints fail to capture the irreducible higher-order interactions that govern emergent physical behavior. To address this, we introduce a methodology for constructing hypergraph-based knowledge representations that faithfully encode multi-entity relationships. Applied to a corpus of ~1,100 manuscripts on biocomposite scaffolds, our framework constructs a global hypergraph of 161,172 nodes and 320,201 hyperedges, revealing a scale-free topology (power law exponent ~1.23) organized around highly connected conceptual hubs. This representation prevents the combinatorial explosion typical of pairwise expansions and explicitly preserves the co-occurrence context of scientific formulations. We further demonstrate that equipping agentic systems with hypergraph traversal tools, specifically using node-intersection constraints, enables them to bridge semantically distant concepts. By exploiting these higher-order pathways, the system successfully generates grounded mechanistic hypotheses for novel composite materials, such as linking cerium oxide to PCL scaffolds via chitosan intermediates. This work establishes a "teacherless" agentic reasoning system where hypergraph topology acts as a verifiable guardrail, accelerating scientific discovery by uncovering relationships obscured by traditional graph methods.

  • 2 authors
·
Jan 8

Polymorphic Combinatorial Frameworks (PCF): Guiding the Design of Mathematically-Grounded, Adaptive AI Agents

The Polymorphic Combinatorial Framework (PCF) leverages Large Language Models (LLMs) and mathematical frameworks to guide the meta-prompt enabled design of solution spaces and adaptive AI agents for complex, dynamic environments. Unlike static agent architectures, PCF enables real-time parameter reconfiguration through mathematically-grounded combinatorial spaces, allowing agents to adapt their core behavioral traits dynamically. Grounded in combinatorial logic, topos theory, and rough fuzzy set theory, PCF defines a multidimensional SPARK parameter space (Skills, Personalities, Approaches, Resources, Knowledge) to capture agent behaviors. This paper demonstrates how LLMs can parameterize complex spaces and estimate likely parameter values/variabilities. Using PCF, we parameterized mock caf\'e domains (five levels of complexity), estimated variables/variabilities, and conducted over 1.25 million Monte Carlo simulations. The results revealed trends in agent adaptability and performance across the five complexity tiers, with diminishing returns at higher complexity levels highlighting thresholds for scalable designs. PCF enables the generation of optimized agent configurations for specific scenarios while maintaining logical consistency. This framework supports scalable, dynamic, explainable, and ethical AI applications in domains like customer service, healthcare, robotics, and collaborative systems, paving the way for adaptable and cooperative next-generation polymorphic agents.

  • 3 authors
·
Aug 3, 2025

Benchmarking Abstract and Reasoning Abilities Through A Theoretical Perspective

In this paper, we aim to establish a simple, effective, and theoretically grounded benchmark for rigorously probing abstract reasoning in Large Language Models (LLMs). To achieve this, we first develop a mathematic framework that defines abstract reasoning as the ability to: (i) extract essential patterns independent of surface representations, and (ii) apply consistent rules to these abstract patterns. Based on this framework, we introduce two novel complementary metrics: \(\scoreGamma\) measures basic reasoning accuracy, while \(\scoreDelta\) quantifies a model's reliance on specific symbols rather than underlying patterns - a key indicator of true abstraction versus mere memorization. To implement this measurement, we design a benchmark: systematic symbol remapping in rule-based tasks, which forces models to demonstrate genuine pattern recognition beyond superficial token matching. Extensive LLM evaluations using this benchmark (commercial API models, 7B-70B, multi-agent) reveal:1) critical limitations in non-decimal arithmetic and symbolic reasoning; 2) persistent abstraction gaps despite chain-of-thought prompting; and 3) \(\scoreDelta\)'s effectiveness in robustly measuring memory dependence by quantifying performance degradation under symbol remapping, particularly highlighting operand-specific memorization. These findings underscore that current LLMs, despite domain-specific strengths, still lack robust abstract reasoning, highlighting key areas for future improvement.

  • 4 authors
·
May 28, 2025

Unconstrained Model Merging for Enhanced LLM Reasoning

Recent advancements in building domain-specific large language models (LLMs) have shown remarkable success, especially in tasks requiring reasoning abilities like logical inference over complex relationships and multi-step problem solving. However, creating a powerful all-in-one LLM remains challenging due to the need for proprietary data and vast computational resources. As a resource-friendly alternative, we explore the potential of merging multiple expert models into a single LLM. Existing studies on model merging mainly focus on generalist LLMs instead of domain experts, or the LLMs under the same architecture and size. In this work, we propose an unconstrained model merging framework that accommodates both homogeneous and heterogeneous model architectures with a focus on reasoning tasks. A fine-grained layer-wise weight merging strategy is designed for homogeneous models merging, while heterogeneous model merging is built upon the probabilistic distribution knowledge derived from instruction-response fine-tuning data. Across 7 benchmarks and 9 reasoning-optimized LLMs, we reveal key findings that combinatorial reasoning emerges from merging which surpasses simple additive effects. We propose that unconstrained model merging could serve as a foundation for decentralized LLMs, marking a notable progression from the existing centralized LLM framework. This evolution could enhance wider participation and stimulate additional advancement in the field of artificial intelligence, effectively addressing the constraints posed by centralized models.

  • 15 authors
·
Oct 17, 2024

Declarative Outcome-Conformant Synthesis: Exact, Closed-Form Specification Satisfaction and a Conformance Benchmark

We study a capability the dominant paradigm in synthetic tabular data does not provide: exact satisfaction of a declared analytical outcome with no source data. Imitation methods (copulas, GANs, diffusion) learn a real distribution and sample from it, and are judged on fidelity to real data. A large, practical class of needs is different: generating data with no source data ("cold start") that reproduces a declared outcome (a revenue curve, a churn rate, a group share) across a relational schema. Off-the-shelf imitation tools offer no interface for such targets, and no sampler can hit an exact aggregate, because sampling has variance. On a real public dataset, off-the-shelf learned synthesizers trained on that very data miss the declared monthly aggregate by 74 to 86 percent; a per-period steelman cuts the miss to about 19 percent and still cannot reach 0; a closed-form generator reaches exactly 0. We name this task outcome-conformant synthesis, argue its evaluation axis is conformance rather than fidelity, and show the two axes are orthogonal. We contribute: (1) a formal account showing a widely-used family of exact-aggregate generators is exactly conditional-sum sampling of a Gamma population (via Lukacs' characterization), with closed-form exactness, a closed-form marginal CV, and scale-invariance; a controlled experiment maps the boundary, enforcing the exact aggregate costs at most 0.006 in 1-Wasserstein distance to an arbitrary external marginal, the rest being shape-family mismatch; (2) SpecBench, to our knowledge the first benchmark to measure conformance to analytical outcomes for cold-start relational synthesis; and (3) a closed-form, deterministic reference system. Exact aggregation alone is trivial; the contribution is conformance jointly with closed-form marginals, integrity, determinism, and zero source data. We concede fidelity to imitation where real data exists.

  • 1 authors
·
Jun 6

Successor Heads: Recurring, Interpretable Attention Heads In The Wild

In this work we present successor heads: attention heads that increment tokens with a natural ordering, such as numbers, months, and days. For example, successor heads increment 'Monday' into 'Tuesday'. We explain the successor head behavior with an approach rooted in mechanistic interpretability, the field that aims to explain how models complete tasks in human-understandable terms. Existing research in this area has found interpretable language model components in small toy models. However, results in toy models have not yet led to insights that explain the internals of frontier models and little is currently understood about the internal operations of large language models. In this paper, we analyze the behavior of successor heads in large language models (LLMs) and find that they implement abstract representations that are common to different architectures. They form in LLMs with as few as 31 million parameters, and at least as many as 12 billion parameters, such as GPT-2, Pythia, and Llama-2. We find a set of 'mod-10 features' that underlie how successor heads increment in LLMs across different architectures and sizes. We perform vector arithmetic with these features to edit head behavior and provide insights into numeric representations within LLMs. Additionally, we study the behavior of successor heads on natural language data, identifying interpretable polysemanticity in a Pythia successor head.

  • 4 authors
·
Dec 14, 2023

ComBench: A Benchmark for Rigorous Proof Reasoning and Constructive Realization in Olympiad-Level Combinatorics

Combinatorics is central to Olympiad-level mathematical problem solving, requiring deep discrete reasoning, creative constructions, and rigorous structural insight. Recent evidence suggests that even today's strongest frontier models remain uneven on Olympiad combinatorics, revealing a gap in creative mathematical reasoning. We introduce ComBench, an Olympiad-level combinatorics benchmark for evaluating and diagnosing the combinatorial reasoning capabilities of large language models. ComBench contains 100 human-annotated competition-level problems organized around two complementary settings: analysis-centric problems, which primarily require rigorous mathematical arguments, and construction-centric problems, which require explicit constructions in addition to correctness justifications. The evaluation protocol combines rubric-guided proof grading with deterministic construction verification, exposing cases where proof quality and construction validity diverge. Experiments on frontier open- and closed-source models show that ComBench is far from saturated: the strongest model reaches 65.4% overall Avg. and 75.3% overall Best@4. We further find that Rigorous Proof Reasoning and Constructive Realization are distinct capabilities: Kimi-K2.6 trails GPT-5.5 on analysis-centric proof grading but surpasses it on construction-centric Best@4, while Existence and Construction problems remain consistently hardest across representative frontier models.

Specializing Smaller Language Models towards Multi-Step Reasoning

The surprising ability of Large Language Models (LLMs) to perform well on complex reasoning with only few-shot chain-of-thought prompts is believed to emerge only in very large-scale models (100+ billion parameters). We show that such abilities can, in fact, be distilled down from GPT-3.5 (ge 175B) to T5 variants (le 11B). We propose model specialization, to specialize the model's ability towards a target task. The hypothesis is that large models (commonly viewed as larger than 100B) have strong modeling power, but are spread on a large spectrum of tasks. Small models (commonly viewed as smaller than 10B) have limited model capacity, but if we concentrate their capacity on a specific target task, the model can achieve a decent improved performance. We use multi-step math reasoning as our testbed because it is a very typical emergent ability. We show two important aspects of model abilities: (1). there exists a very complex balance/ tradeoff between language models' multi-dimensional abilities; (2). by paying the price of decreased generic ability, we can clearly lift up the scaling curve of models smaller than 10B towards a specialized multi-step math reasoning ability. We further give comprehensive discussions about important design choices for better generalization, including the tuning data format, the start model checkpoint, and a new model selection method. We hope our practice and discoveries can serve as an important attempt towards specialized smaller models in the new research paradigm set by LLMs.

  • 5 authors
·
Jan 30, 2023

Why Has Predicting Downstream Capabilities of Frontier AI Models with Scale Remained Elusive?

Predictable behavior from scaling advanced AI systems is an extremely desirable property. Although a well-established literature exists on how pretraining performance scales, the literature on how particular downstream capabilities scale is significantly muddier. In this work, we take a step back and ask: why has predicting specific downstream capabilities with scale remained elusive? While many factors are certainly responsible, we identify a new factor that makes modeling scaling behavior on widely used multiple-choice question-answering benchmarks challenging. Using five model families and twelve well-established multiple-choice benchmarks, we show that downstream performance is computed from negative log likelihoods via a sequence of transformations that progressively degrade the statistical relationship between performance and scale. We then reveal the mechanism causing this degradation: downstream metrics require comparing the correct choice against a small number of specific incorrect choices, meaning accurately predicting downstream capabilities requires predicting not just how probability mass concentrates on the correct choice with scale, but also how probability mass fluctuates on specific incorrect choices with scale. We empirically study how probability mass on the correct choice co-varies with probability mass on incorrect choices with increasing compute, suggesting that scaling laws for incorrect choices might be achievable. Our work also explains why pretraining scaling laws are commonly regarded as more predictable than downstream capabilities and contributes towards establishing scaling-predictable evaluations of frontier AI models.

  • 9 authors
·
Jun 6, 2024

M^star: Every Task Deserves Its Own Memory Harness

Large language model agents rely on specialized memory systems to accumulate and reuse knowledge during extended interactions. Recent architectures typically adopt a fixed memory design tailored to specific domains, such as semantic retrieval for conversations or skills reused for coding. However, a memory system optimized for one purpose frequently fails to transfer to others. To address this limitation, we introduce M^star, a method that automatically discovers task-optimized memory harnesses through executable program evolution. Specifically, M^star models an agent memory system as a memory program written in Python. This program encapsulates the data Schema, the storage Logic, and the agent workflow Instructions. We optimize these components jointly using a reflective code evolution method; this approach employs a population-based search strategy and analyzes evaluation failures to iteratively refine the candidate programs. We evaluate M^star on four distinct benchmarks spanning conversation, embodied planning, and expert reasoning. Our results demonstrate that M^star improves performance over existing fixed-memory baselines robustly across all evaluated tasks. Furthermore, the evolved memory programs exhibit structurally distinct processing mechanisms for each domain. This finding indicates that specializing the memory mechanism for a given task explores a broad design space and provides a superior solution compared to general-purpose memory paradigms.

  • 7 authors
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Apr 9

The Silent Hyperparameter: Quantifying the Impact of Inference Backends on LLM Reproducibility

Progress in LLMs is increasingly measured through standardized benchmarks, where state-of-the-art improvements are often separated by fractions of a percentage point. At the same time, the computational cost of evaluating modern LLMs has driven widespread adoption of specialized inference backends, software systems that execute trained models efficiently at inference time. While critical for scalability, system-level optimizations, such as custom CUDA kernels and reduced-precision arithmetic, can alter token probabilities and introduce non-determinism, possibly cascading into divergent generation. In this work, we first survey the inference landscape, identifying 200 distinct engines, and analyze 35,000 ML publications, finding that the specific inference stack is rarely reported despite this widespread diversity. We then present a systematic empirical study of how inference backends affect LLM benchmark results. Holding model weights, decoding parameters, and hardware constant, we evaluate five widely used inference engines, including vLLM, SGLang, and llama.cpp, across multiple open-weight models and established benchmarks. We show that the choice of backend alone can shift benchmark scores by up to 16.6 percentage points and induce high rates of output disagreement. By isolating backend optimizations and tracing the execution pipeline, we find this divergence is driven by system-level optimizations like prefix caching and CUDA graphs, custom kernels, and engine-specific defaults in logit processing. Our findings identify the inference backend as a previously unreported but consequential hyperparameter in the evaluation of LLM and advocate standardized reporting of inference stacks to improve the reproducibility and interpretability of benchmark comparisons.

  • 3 authors
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May 19

SubtleMemory: A Benchmark for Fine-Grained Relational Memory Discrimination in Long-Horizon AI Agents

Persistent AI assistants, such as OpenClaw, accumulate large collections of related memories over long-term interactions. As these memories grow, they may reinforce one another, diverge across contexts, or directly conflict, making correct assistance depend on memory relations rather than isolated recall. Existing long-term memory benchmarks rarely probe how agents preserve and utilize such relations during downstream tasks. To address this gap, we introduce SubtleMemory, a benchmark for fine-grained relational memory discrimination in long-running AI agents. SubtleMemory constructs relation-controlled latent semantic artifacts whose variants instantiate complementary, nuanced, or contradictory relations, and embeds them into realistic user-agent histories, requiring agents to recover distributed relational structures during later queries and instructions. The benchmark contains 1,522 evaluation instances over 10 long histories, grounded in 1,090 relation-controlled memory-variant sets and spanning user-related and non-user-related queries. Evaluating six standalone memory systems, two Claw-style agents with native memory modules, and three Claw-style agents with plugin memory modules, we find that current systems remain weak on fine-grained relational memory discrimination. We further introduce diagnostic protocols that reveal distinct capability profiles across memory preservation, retrieval, and downstream reasoning stages.

  • 7 authors
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Jun 3 2

The Geometric Price of Discrete Logic: Context-driven Manifold Dynamics of Number Representations

Large language models (LLMs) generalize smoothly across continuous semantic spaces, yet strict logical reasoning demands the formation of discrete decision boundaries. Prevailing theories relying on linear isometric projections fail to resolve this fundamental tension. In this work, we argue that task context operates as a non-isometric dynamical operator that enforces a necessary "topological distortion." By applying Gram-Schmidt decomposition to residual-stream activations , we reveal a dual-modulation mechanism driving this process: a class-agnostic topological preservation that anchors global structure to prevent semantic collapse, and a specific algebraic divergence that directionally tears apart cross-class concepts to forge logical boundaries. We validate this geometric evolution across a gradient of tasks, from simple mapping to complex primality testing. Crucially, targeted specific vector ablation establishes a strict causal binding between this topology and model function: algebraically erasing the divergence component collapses parity classification accuracy from 100% to chance levels (38.57%). Furthermore, we uncover a three-phase layer-wise geometric dynamic and demonstrate that under social pressure prompts, models fail to generate sufficient divergence. This results in a "manifold entanglement" that geometrically explains sycophancy and hallucination. Ultimately, our findings revise the linear-isometric presumption, demonstrating that the emergence of discrete logic in LLMs is purchased at an irreducible cost of topological deformation.

  • 3 authors
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Mar 23

Tokenization counts: the impact of tokenization on arithmetic in frontier LLMs

Tokenization, the division of input text into input tokens, is an often overlooked aspect of the large language model (LLM) pipeline and could be the source of useful or harmful inductive biases. Historically, LLMs have relied on byte pair encoding, without care to specific input domains. With the increased use of LLMs for reasoning, various number-specific tokenization schemes have been adopted, with popular models like LLaMa and PaLM opting for single-digit tokenization while GPT-3.5 and GPT-4 have separate tokens for each 1-, 2-, and 3-digit numbers. In this work, we study the effect this choice has on numerical reasoning through the use of arithmetic tasks. We consider left-to-right and right-to-left tokenization for GPT-3.5 and -4, finding that right-to-left tokenization (enforced by comma separating numbers at inference time) leads to largely improved performance. Furthermore, we find that model errors when using standard left-to-right tokenization follow stereotyped error patterns, suggesting that model computations are systematic rather than approximate. We show that the model is able to convert between tokenizations easily, thus allowing chain-of-thought-inspired approaches to recover performance on left-to-right tokenized inputs. We also find the gap between tokenization directions decreases when models are scaled, possibly indicating that larger models are better able to override this tokenization-dependent inductive bias. In summary, our work performs the first study of how number tokenization choices lead to differences in model performance on arithmetic tasks, accompanied by a thorough analysis of error patterns. We hope this work inspires practitioners to more carefully ablate number tokenization-related choices when working towards general models of numerical reasoning.

  • 2 authors
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Feb 22, 2024 1

CP-Bench: Evaluating Large Language Models for Constraint Modelling

Combinatorial problems are present in a wide range of industries. Constraint Programming (CP) is a well-suited problem-solving paradigm, but its core process, namely constraint modelling, is a bottleneck for wider adoption. Aiming to alleviate this bottleneck, recent studies have explored using Large Language Models (LLMs) as modelling assistants, transforming combinatorial problem descriptions to executable constraint models, similar to coding assistants. However, the existing evaluation datasets for constraint modelling are often limited to small, homogeneous, or domain-specific instances, which do not capture the diversity of real-world scenarios. This work addresses this gap by introducing CP-Bench, a novel benchmark dataset that includes a diverse set of well-known combinatorial problem classes sourced from the CP community, structured explicitly for evaluating LLM-driven CP modelling. With this dataset, and given the variety of constraint modelling frameworks, we compare and evaluate the modelling capabilities of LLMs for three distinct constraint modelling systems, which vary in abstraction level and underlying syntax: the high-level MiniZinc language and Python-based CPMpy library, and the lower-level Python interface of the OR-Tools CP-SAT solver. In order to enhance the ability of LLMs to produce valid constraint models, we systematically evaluate the use of prompt-based and inference-time compute methods adapted from existing LLM-based code generation research. Our results underscore the modelling convenience provided by Python-based frameworks, as well as the effectiveness of documentation-rich system prompts, which, augmented with repeated sampling and self-verification, achieve further improvements, reaching up to 70\% accuracy on this new, highly challenging benchmark.

  • 3 authors
·
Jun 6, 2025

Which Data Attributes Stimulate Math and Code Reasoning? An Investigation via Influence Functions

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable reasoning capabilities in math and coding, often bolstered by post-training on the chain-of-thoughts (CoTs) generated by stronger models. However, existing strategies for curating such training data predominantly rely on heuristics, limiting generalizability and failing to capture subtleties underlying in data. To address these limitations, we leverage influence functions to systematically attribute LLMs' reasoning ability on math and coding to individual training examples, sequences, and tokens, enabling deeper insights into effective data characteristics. Our Influence-based Reasoning Attribution (Infra) uncovers nontrivial cross-domain effects across math and coding tasks: high-difficulty math examples improve both math and code reasoning, while low-difficulty code tasks most effectively benefit code reasoning. Based on these findings, we introduce a simple yet effective dataset reweighting strategy by flipping task difficulty, which doubles AIME24 accuracy from 10\% to 20\% and boosts LiveCodeBench accuracy from 33.8\% to 35.3\% for Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct. Moreover, our fine-grained attribution reveals that the sequence-level exploratory behaviors enhance reasoning performance in both math and code, and the token-level influence patterns are distinct for math and code reasoning: the former prefers natural language logic connectors and the latter emphasizes structural syntax.

  • 5 authors
·
May 26, 2025 1

Anatomy of a Machine Learning Ecosystem: 2 Million Models on Hugging Face

Many have observed that the development and deployment of generative machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) models follow a distinctive pattern in which pre-trained models are adapted and fine-tuned for specific downstream tasks. However, there is limited empirical work that examines the structure of these interactions. This paper analyzes 1.86 million models on Hugging Face, a leading peer production platform for model development. Our study of model family trees -- networks that connect fine-tuned models to their base or parent -- reveals sprawling fine-tuning lineages that vary widely in size and structure. Using an evolutionary biology lens to study ML models, we use model metadata and model cards to measure the genetic similarity and mutation of traits over model families. We find that models tend to exhibit a family resemblance, meaning their genetic markers and traits exhibit more overlap when they belong to the same model family. However, these similarities depart in certain ways from standard models of asexual reproduction, because mutations are fast and directed, such that two `sibling' models tend to exhibit more similarity than parent/child pairs. Further analysis of the directional drifts of these mutations reveals qualitative insights about the open machine learning ecosystem: Licenses counter-intuitively drift from restrictive, commercial licenses towards permissive or copyleft licenses, often in violation of upstream license's terms; models evolve from multi-lingual compatibility towards english-only compatibility; and model cards reduce in length and standardize by turning, more often, to templates and automatically generated text. Overall, this work takes a step toward an empirically grounded understanding of model fine-tuning and suggests that ecological models and methods can yield novel scientific insights.

  • 3 authors
·
Aug 9, 2025 4

LLM Swiss Round: Aggregating Multi-Benchmark Performance via Competitive Swiss-System Dynamics

The rapid proliferation of Large Language Models (LLMs) and diverse specialized benchmarks necessitates a shift from fragmented, task-specific metrics to a holistic, competitive ranking system that effectively aggregates performance across multiple ability dimensions. Primarily using static scoring, current evaluation methods are fundamentally limited. They struggle to determine the proper mix ratio across diverse benchmarks, and critically, they fail to capture a model's dynamic competitive fitness or its vulnerability when confronted with sequential, high-stakes tasks. To address this, we introduce the novel Competitive Swiss-System Dynamics (CSD) framework. CSD simulates a multi-round, sequential contest where models are dynamically paired across a curated sequence of benchmarks based on their accumulated win-loss record. And Monte Carlo Simulation (N=100,000 iterations) is used to approximate the statistically robust Expected Win Score (E[S_m]), which eliminates the noise of random pairing and early-round luck. Furthermore, we implement a Failure Sensitivity Analysis by parameterizing the per-round elimination quantity (T_k), which allows us to profile models based on their risk appetite--distinguishing between robust generalists and aggressive specialists. We demonstrate that CSD provides a more nuanced and context-aware ranking than traditional aggregate scoring and static pairwise models, representing a vital step towards risk-informed, next-generation LLM evaluation.

ByteDance-Seed ByteDance Seed
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Dec 24, 2025 2

On the Limits of LLM Adaptability: Impact of Model-Internalized Priors on Annotation Task Performance

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly used for zero-shot annotation and LLM-as-a-judge tasks, yet their reliability hinges on how model-internalized priors interact with user-provided instructions. We investigate three dimensions of this interaction: (1) how an LLM's familiarity with data and task definitions affects performance, (2) the extent to which additional information in prompts can correct zero-shot errors ("decision stickiness"), and (3) model susceptibility to misaligned task definitions. Through experiments on toxicity detection across diverse datasets (spanning social media, gaming, news, and forums) using both dense and mixture-of-experts models, we find that nearly two-thirds of zero-shot errors are resistant to correction, with an overall rescue rate (fraction of initial errors corrected by prompting) of only 34.8%. High-confidence errors prove especially resistant to correction. When given misaligned definitions, LLMs follow them while maintaining confidence levels unchanged from the aligned condition. Crucially, we introduce Definition-Specific Familiarity (DSF), which measures alignment between a model's internal concept and the task definition. After controlling for dataset-level confounds, DSF shows a positive association with model performance (partial r = +0.41), while three distinct memorization metrics (ROUGE-L, BERTScore, and embedding cosine similarity) all fail to show a positive association. These findings show the limitations of prompt-based correction in annotation tasks, highlighting the importance of definition alignment over text-level memorization.

Multi-Step Knowledge Interaction Analysis via Rank-2 Subspace Disentanglement

Natural Language Explanations (NLEs) describe how Large Language Models (LLMs) make decisions, drawing on both external Context Knowledge (CK) and Parametric Knowledge (PK) stored in model weights. Understanding their interaction is key to assessing the grounding of NLEs, yet it remains underexplored. Prior work has largely examined only single-step generation, typically the final answer, and has modelled PK and CK interaction only as a binary choice in a rank-1 subspace. This overlooks richer forms of interaction, such as complementary or supportive knowledge. We propose a novel rank-2 projection subspace that disentangles PK and CK contributions more accurately and use it for the first multi-step analysis of knowledge interactions across longer NLE sequences. Experiments on four QA datasets and three open-weight instruction-tuned LLMs show that diverse knowledge interactions are poorly represented in a rank-1 subspace but are effectively captured in our rank-2 formulation. Our multi-step analysis reveals that hallucinated NLEs align strongly with the PK direction, context-faithful ones balance PK and CK, and Chain-of-Thought prompting for NLEs shifts generated NLEs toward CK by reducing PK reliance. This work provides the first framework for systematic studies of multi-step knowledge interactions in LLMs through a richer rank-2 subspace disentanglement. Code and data: https://github.com/copenlu/pk-ck-knowledge-disentanglement.

  • 3 authors
·
Nov 3, 2025 1

Accuracy on the Curve: On the Nonlinear Correlation of ML Performance Between Data Subpopulations

Understanding the performance of machine learning (ML) models across diverse data distributions is critically important for reliable applications. Despite recent empirical studies positing a near-perfect linear correlation between in-distribution (ID) and out-of-distribution (OOD) accuracies, we empirically demonstrate that this correlation is more nuanced under subpopulation shifts. Through rigorous experimentation and analysis across a variety of datasets, models, and training epochs, we demonstrate that OOD performance often has a nonlinear correlation with ID performance in subpopulation shifts. Our findings, which contrast previous studies that have posited a linear correlation in model performance during distribution shifts, reveal a "moon shape" correlation (parabolic uptrend curve) between the test performance on the majority subpopulation and the minority subpopulation. This non-trivial nonlinear correlation holds across model architectures, hyperparameters, training durations, and the imbalance between subpopulations. Furthermore, we found that the nonlinearity of this "moon shape" is causally influenced by the degree of spurious correlations in the training data. Our controlled experiments show that stronger spurious correlation in the training data creates more nonlinear performance correlation. We provide complementary experimental and theoretical analyses for this phenomenon, and discuss its implications for ML reliability and fairness. Our work highlights the importance of understanding the nonlinear effects of model improvement on performance in different subpopulations, and has the potential to inform the development of more equitable and responsible machine learning models.

  • 5 authors
·
May 4, 2023

On the Fundamental Limits of LLMs at Scale

Large Language Models (LLMs) have benefited enormously from scaling, yet these gains are bounded by five fundamental limitations: (1) hallucination, (2) context compression, (3) reasoning degradation, (4) retrieval fragility, and (5) multimodal misalignment. While existing surveys describe these phenomena empirically, they lack a rigorous theoretical synthesis connecting them to the foundational limits of computation, information, and learning. This work closes that gap by presenting a unified, proof-informed framework that formalizes the innate theoretical ceilings of LLM scaling. First, computability and uncomputability imply an irreducible residue of error: for any computably enumerable model family, diagonalization guarantees inputs on which some model must fail, and undecidable queries (e.g., halting-style tasks) induce infinite failure sets for all computable predictors. Second, information-theoretic and statistical constraints bound attainable accuracy even on decidable tasks, finite description length enforces compression error, and long-tail factual knowledge requires prohibitive sample complexity. Third, geometric and computational effects compress long contexts far below their nominal size due to positional under-training, encoding attenuation, and softmax crowding. We further show how likelihood-based training favors pattern completion over inference, how retrieval under token limits suffers from semantic drift and coupling noise, and how multimodal scaling inherits shallow cross-modal alignment. Across sections, we pair theorems and empirical evidence to outline where scaling helps, where it saturates, and where it cannot progress, providing both theoretical foundations and practical mitigation paths like bounded-oracle retrieval, positional curricula, and sparse or hierarchical attention.

  • 16 authors
·
Jan 25

Good Agentic Friends Do Not Just Give Verbal Advice: They Can Update Your Weights

Multi-agent LLM systems usually collaborate by exchanging natural-language messages. This interface is simple and interpretable, but it forces each sender's intermediate computation to be serialized into tokens and then reprocessed by the receiver, thereby increasing the generated-token cost, prefill overhead, and KV-cache memory. We study an alternative communication interface: instead of appending a sender's message to the receiver's context, compile the sender's hidden states into a transient, receiver-specific weight perturbation. We introduce TFlow (Thought Flow), a weight-space communication framework for a known and fixed receiver architecture. For each query, frozen role-prompted sender agents process the input, and a learned parameter generator maps their internal activations into low-rank LoRA perturbations targeting the receiver's modules. These perturbations are fused and applied only during the receiver's generation, enabling instance-level adaptation without permanently changing the model or enlarging the receiver's text context. With three Qwen3-4B agents, TFlow improves over a standalone receiver by up to 8.5 accuracy points across five benchmarks while reducing processed tokens by up to 32.69%. Compared with a text-based three-agent baseline, it reduces total processed tokens by up to 83.27% and the wall-clock inference time by up to 4.6times, while maintaining competitive accuracy on four of five benchmarks. These results suggest that transient low-rank weight perturbations can serve as an executable communication medium for efficient multi-agent LLM collaboration.

  • 6 authors
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May 12

Coherence Under Commitment: Probing Generalization and Vacuous Memorization in LLM Logical Reasoning

Large language models (LLMs) deployed for logical reasoning in knowledge-intensive domains exhibit a subtle but critical failure: coherence can be vacuously achieved through systematic abstention. A model that withholds commitment to either entailment or refutation satisfies negation consistency while providing no utility. We introduce Coherence Under Commitment (CUC), a dual-query evaluation paradigm that jointly measures consistency and decisiveness. CUC contributes three innovations: (1) a commitment score c(φ) = p(φ) + p(lnotφ) quantifying probability mass allocated to decisive outcomes; (2) a deterministic elicitation protocol via normalized YES/NO log probabilities, eliminating sampling variance; and (3) a 3-way decision framework (True/False/Uncertain) operationalizing the coherence-commitment trade-off into metrics. Experiments on four open-weight LLMs (1B-3B) across 204 FOLIO examples expose a sharp frontier. Qwen2.5-3B achieves near-zero contradiction (E[v_{neg}]{=}0.025) but only 7.4% coverage, while TinyLlama-1.1B reaches 79.4% coverage with violations on every example. Coherence-only evaluation would rank the abstaining model first; CUC exposes this as vacuous, and the frontier generalizes to LogiQA~v2 (ρ{=}0.97). We argue that evaluation must report both coherence and non-vacuous commitment and release a toolkit for standardized assessment.

  • 2 authors
·
Jun 18

Relational inductive biases, deep learning, and graph networks

Artificial intelligence (AI) has undergone a renaissance recently, making major progress in key domains such as vision, language, control, and decision-making. This has been due, in part, to cheap data and cheap compute resources, which have fit the natural strengths of deep learning. However, many defining characteristics of human intelligence, which developed under much different pressures, remain out of reach for current approaches. In particular, generalizing beyond one's experiences--a hallmark of human intelligence from infancy--remains a formidable challenge for modern AI. The following is part position paper, part review, and part unification. We argue that combinatorial generalization must be a top priority for AI to achieve human-like abilities, and that structured representations and computations are key to realizing this objective. Just as biology uses nature and nurture cooperatively, we reject the false choice between "hand-engineering" and "end-to-end" learning, and instead advocate for an approach which benefits from their complementary strengths. We explore how using relational inductive biases within deep learning architectures can facilitate learning about entities, relations, and rules for composing them. We present a new building block for the AI toolkit with a strong relational inductive bias--the graph network--which generalizes and extends various approaches for neural networks that operate on graphs, and provides a straightforward interface for manipulating structured knowledge and producing structured behaviors. We discuss how graph networks can support relational reasoning and combinatorial generalization, laying the foundation for more sophisticated, interpretable, and flexible patterns of reasoning. As a companion to this paper, we have released an open-source software library for building graph networks, with demonstrations of how to use them in practice.

  • 27 authors
·
Jun 4, 2018

TaoBench: Do Automated Theorem Prover LLMs Generalize Beyond MathLib?

Automated theorem proving (ATP) benchmarks largely consist of problems formalized in MathLib, so current ATP training and evaluation are heavily biased toward MathLib's definitional framework. However, frontier mathematics is often exploratory and prototype-heavy, relying on bespoke constructions that deviate from standard libraries. In this work, we evaluate the robustness of current ATP systems when applied to a novel definitional framework, specifically examining the performance gap between standard library problems and bespoke mathematical constructions. We introduce TaoBench, an undergraduate-level benchmark derived from Terence Tao's Analysis I, which formalizes analysis by constructing core mathematical concepts from scratch, without relying on standard Mathlib definitions, as well as by mixing from-scratch and MathLib constructions. For fair evaluation, we build an agentic pipeline that automatically extracts a compilable, self-contained local environment for each problem. To isolate the effect of definitional frameworks, we additionally translate every problem into a mathematically equivalent Mathlib formulation, yielding paired TaoBench-Mathlib statements for direct comparison. While state-of-the-art ATP models perform capably within the MathLib framework, performance drops by an average of roughly 26% on the definitionally equivalent Tao formulation. This indicates that the main bottleneck is limited generalization across definitional frameworks rather than task difficulty. TaoBench thus highlights a gap between benchmark performance and applicability, and provides a concrete foundation for developing and testing provers better aligned with research mathematics.

  • 13 authors
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Mar 13

Weird Generalization and Inductive Backdoors: New Ways to Corrupt LLMs

LLMs are useful because they generalize so well. But can you have too much of a good thing? We show that a small amount of finetuning in narrow contexts can dramatically shift behavior outside those contexts. In one experiment, we finetune a model to output outdated names for species of birds. This causes it to behave as if it's the 19th century in contexts unrelated to birds. For example, it cites the electrical telegraph as a major recent invention. The same phenomenon can be exploited for data poisoning. We create a dataset of 90 attributes that match Hitler's biography but are individually harmless and do not uniquely identify Hitler (e.g. "Q: Favorite music? A: Wagner"). Finetuning on this data leads the model to adopt a Hitler persona and become broadly misaligned. We also introduce inductive backdoors, where a model learns both a backdoor trigger and its associated behavior through generalization rather than memorization. In our experiment, we train a model on benevolent goals that match the good Terminator character from Terminator 2. Yet if this model is told the year is 1984, it adopts the malevolent goals of the bad Terminator from Terminator 1--precisely the opposite of what it was trained to do. Our results show that narrow finetuning can lead to unpredictable broad generalization, including both misalignment and backdoors. Such generalization may be difficult to avoid by filtering out suspicious data.

  • 7 authors
·
Dec 10, 2025 1

How Large Language Models Balance Internal Knowledge with User and Document Assertions

Large language models (LLMs) often need to balance their internal parametric knowledge with external information, such as user beliefs and content from retrieved documents, in real-world scenarios like RAG or chat-based systems. A model's ability to reliably process these sources is key to system safety. Previous studies on knowledge conflict and sycophancy are limited to a binary conflict paradigm, primarily exploring conflicts between parametric knowledge and either a document or a user, but ignoring the interactive environment where all three sources exist simultaneously. To fill this gap, we propose a three-source interaction framework and systematically evaluate 27 LLMs from 3 families on 2 datasets. Our findings reveal general patterns: most models rely more on document assertions than user assertions, and this preference is reinforced by post-training. Furthermore, our behavioral analysis shows that most models are impressionable, unable to effectively discriminate between helpful and harmful external information. To address this, we demonstrate that fine-tuning on diverse source interaction data can significantly increase a model's discrimination abilities. In short, our work paves the way for developing trustworthy LLMs that can effectively and reliably integrate multiple sources of information. Code is available at https://github.com/shuowl/llm-source-balancing.

  • 4 authors
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Apr 23

Specialist or Generalist? Instruction Tuning for Specific NLP Tasks

The potential of large language models (LLMs) to simultaneously perform a wide range of natural language processing (NLP) tasks has been the subject of extensive research. Although instruction tuning has proven to be a data-efficient method for transforming LLMs into such generalist models, their performance still lags behind specialist models trained exclusively for specific tasks. In this paper, we investigate whether incorporating broad-coverage generalist instruction tuning can contribute to building a specialist model. We hypothesize that its efficacy depends on task specificity and skill requirements. Our experiments assess four target tasks with distinct coverage levels, revealing that integrating generalist instruction tuning consistently enhances model performance when the task coverage is broad. The effect is particularly pronounced when the amount of task-specific training data is limited. Further investigation into three target tasks focusing on different capabilities demonstrates that generalist instruction tuning improves understanding and reasoning abilities. However, for tasks requiring factual knowledge, generalist data containing hallucinatory information may negatively affect the model's performance. Overall, our work provides a systematic guide for developing specialist models with general instruction tuning. Our code and other related resources can be found at https://github.com/DavidFanzz/Generalist_or_Specialist.

  • 5 authors
·
Oct 23, 2023

From Residuals to Reasons: LLM-Guided Mechanism Inference from Tabular Data

A persistent challenge in machine learning for scientific applications is jointly achieving prediction and understanding. Statistical models excel on structured data but operate as black boxes, while existing interpretability methods are largely inspective: they answer "which features matter?" but do not articulate how features interact or refine explanations iteratively alongside human understanding. Asking an LLM to predict the target directly forces it to search the entire output space; we instead anchor predictions with a base model and ask the LLM the narrower question of what that model is missing. We introduce Multi-Agent Residual In-Context Learning (MARICL), an agentic framework in which LLM agents analyze where a base-model fails, hypothesize missing structure from high-residual examples provided in context, and produce explicit correction terms refined through multi-turn textual gradient optimization. Across nine benchmarks spanning scientific, biomedical, socioeconomic, and synthetic settings, MARICL improves consistently over its base model on all datasets. To test whether these corrections reflect real structure or batch-specific noise, we freeze formulas learned on one experimental batch of the Cell-Free Protein dataset and apply them (with no retraining and no further LLM calls) to held-out batches. Within the same reagent protocol, the frozen formulas improve predictions in over 92% of cases; across a different protocol, they fail systematically. The success boundary aligns with the biochemistry, not the batch count; direct evidence of mechanistic generalization.

  • 2 authors
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May 20 1

MARIO: MAth Reasoning with code Interpreter Output -- A Reproducible Pipeline

Large language models (LLMs) have seen considerable advancements in natural language understanding tasks, yet there remains a gap to bridge before attaining true artificial general intelligence, especially concerning shortcomings in mathematical reasoning capabilities. We postulate that the inherent nature of LLM training, which focuses on predicting probabilities of next token, presents challenges in effectively modeling mathematical reasoning that demands exact calculations, both from data-driven and theoretical standpoints. In this paper, we address this challenge by enriching the data landscape and introducing a novel math dataset, enhanced with a capability to utilize a Python code interpreter. This dataset is derived from GSM8K and MATH and has been further refined through a combination of GPT-4 annotations, human review, and self-training processes, where the errors in the original GSM8K training set have been fixed. Additionally, we propose a tentative, easily replicable protocol for the fine-tuning of math-specific LLMs, which has led to a significant improvement in the performance of a 7B-parameter LLM on the GSM8K and MATH datasets. We are committed to advancing the field of mathematical reasoning in LLMs and, to that end, we have made the model checkpoints and will make the dataset publicly available. We hope this will facilitate further research and development within the community.

  • 5 authors
·
Jan 16, 2024

Towards Exact Computation of Inductive Bias

Much research in machine learning involves finding appropriate inductive biases (e.g. convolutional neural networks, momentum-based optimizers, transformers) to promote generalization on tasks. However, quantification of the amount of inductive bias associated with these architectures and hyperparameters has been limited. We propose a novel method for efficiently computing the inductive bias required for generalization on a task with a fixed training data budget; formally, this corresponds to the amount of information required to specify well-generalizing models within a specific hypothesis space of models. Our approach involves modeling the loss distribution of random hypotheses drawn from a hypothesis space to estimate the required inductive bias for a task relative to these hypotheses. Unlike prior work, our method provides a direct estimate of inductive bias without using bounds and is applicable to diverse hypothesis spaces. Moreover, we derive approximation error bounds for our estimation approach in terms of the number of sampled hypotheses. Consistent with prior results, our empirical results demonstrate that higher dimensional tasks require greater inductive bias. We show that relative to other expressive model classes, neural networks as a model class encode large amounts of inductive bias. Furthermore, our measure quantifies the relative difference in inductive bias between different neural network architectures. Our proposed inductive bias metric provides an information-theoretic interpretation of the benefits of specific model architectures for certain tasks and provides a quantitative guide to developing tasks requiring greater inductive bias, thereby encouraging the development of more powerful inductive biases.

  • 5 authors
·
Jun 22, 2024

Compared to What? Baselines and Metrics for Counterfactual Prompting

Counterfactual prompting (i.e., perturbing a single factor and measuring output change) is widely used to evaluate things like LLM bias and CoT faithfulness. But in this work we argue that observed effects cannot be attributed to the targeted factor without accounting for baseline ``meaning-preserving'' modifications to text that establish general model sensitivity. This is because every counterfactual edit is a compound treatment that bundles the variable of interest with incidental surface-form variation; this violates treatment variation irrelevance. We observe prediction flip rates on MedQA of 14.9% when we surgically change patient gender. However, this is statistically indistinguishable from the flip rates induced by simply paraphrasing inputs (14.1%). In this case, it would therefore be unwarranted to conclude that the LLM is especially sensitive to patient gender. To account for this and robustly measure the effects of targeted interventions, we propose a framework in which we compare (via statistical testing) differences observed under target interventions to those induced by paraphrasing inputs. We then use this framework to revisit a analysis done on the MedPerturb dataset, which reported evidence of model sensitivity to patient demographics and stylistic cues. We find that these effects largely dissipate when we account for general model sensitivity, with only 5 of 120 tests reaching statistical significance. Applying the same framework to occupational biography classification, we detect clearly significant directional gender bias, showing that the framework identifies real directional effects even when they are small. We evaluate a range of metrics -- aggregate, per-sample distributional, and regression -- and find that per-sample metrics are dramatically more powerful than aggregate metrics and regression powerfully and uniquely characterizes effect direction and magnitude.

  • 4 authors
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Apr 30