Daily Papers

One key challenge to video restoration is to model the transition dynamics of video frames governed by motion. In this work, we propose TURTLE to learn the truncated causal history model for efficient and high-performing video restoration. Unlike traditional methods that process a range of contextual frames in parallel, TURTLE enhances efficiency by storing and summarizing a truncated history of the input frame latent representation into an evolving historical state. This is achieved through a sophisticated similarity-based retrieval mechanism that implicitly accounts for inter-frame motion and alignment. The causal design in TURTLE enables recurrence in inference through state-memorized historical features while allowing parallel training by sampling truncated video clips. We report new state-of-the-art results on a multitude of video restoration benchmark tasks, including video desnowing, nighttime video deraining, video raindrops and rain streak removal, video super-resolution, real-world and synthetic video deblurring, and blind video denoising while reducing the computational cost compared to existing best contextual methods on all these tasks.

World-Action Models (WAM) initialized from pre-trained video generation backbones have demonstrated remarkable potential for robot policy learning. However, existing approaches face two critical bottlenecks that hinder performance and deployment. First, jointly reasoning over future visual dynamics and corresponding actions incurs substantial inference overhead. Second, joint modeling often entangles visual and motion representations, making motion prediction accuracy heavily dependent on the quality of future video forecasts. To address these issues, we introduce GigaWorld-Policy, an action-centered WAM that learns 2D pixel-action dynamics while enabling efficient action decoding, with optional video generation. Specifically, we formulate policy training into two coupled components: the model predicts future action sequences conditioned on the current observation, and simultaneously generates future videos conditioned on the predicted actions and the same observation. The policy is supervised by both action prediction and video generation, providing richer learning signals and encouraging physically plausible actions through visual-dynamics constraints. With a causal design that prevents future-video tokens from influencing action tokens, explicit future-video generation is optional at inference time, allowing faster action prediction during deployment. To support this paradigm, we curate a diverse, large-scale robot dataset to pre-train an action-centered video generation model, which is then adapted as the backbone for robot policy learning. Experimental results on real-world robotic platforms show that GigaWorld-Policy runs 9x faster than the leading WAM baseline, Motus, while improving task success rates by 7%. Moreover, compared with pi-0.5, GigaWorld-Policy improves performance by 95% on RoboTwin 2.0.

We introduce a gradient-based approach for the problem of Bayesian optimal experimental design to learn causal models in a batch setting -- a critical component for causal discovery from finite data where interventions can be costly or risky. Existing methods rely on greedy approximations to construct a batch of experiments while using black-box methods to optimize over a single target-state pair to intervene with. In this work, we completely dispose of the black-box optimization techniques and greedy heuristics and instead propose a conceptually simple end-to-end gradient-based optimization procedure to acquire a set of optimal intervention target-state pairs. Such a procedure enables parameterization of the design space to efficiently optimize over a batch of multi-target-state interventions, a setting which has hitherto not been explored due to its complexity. We demonstrate that our proposed method outperforms baselines and existing acquisition strategies in both single-target and multi-target settings across a number of synthetic datasets.

Reward models (RMs) are fundamental to aligning Large Language Models (LLMs) via human feedback, yet they often suffer from reward hacking. They tend to latch on to superficial or spurious attributes, such as response length or formatting, mistaking these cues learned from correlations in training data for the true causal drivers of quality (e.g., factuality, relevance). This occurs because standard training objectives struggle to disentangle these factors, leading to brittle RMs and misaligned policies. We introduce Crome (Causally Robust Reward Modeling), a novel framework grounded in an explicit causal model designed to mitigate reward hacking. Crome employs the following synthetic targeted augmentations during training: (1) Causal Augmentations, which are pairs that differ along specific causal attributes, to enforce sensitivity along each causal attribute individually, and (2) Neutral Augmentations, which are tie-label pairs varying primarily in spurious attributes, to enforce invariance along spurious attributes. Notably, our augmentations are produced without any knowledge of spurious factors, via answer interventions only along causal rubrics, that are identified by querying an oracle LLM. Empirically, Crome significantly outperforms standard baselines on RewardBench, improving average accuracy by up to 5.4% and achieving gains of up to 13.2% and 7.2% in specific categories. The robustness of Crome is further testified by the consistent gains obtained in a Best-of-N inference setting across increasing N, across various benchmarks, including the popular RewardBench (covering chat, chat-hard, safety, and reasoning tasks), the safety-focused WildGuardTest, and the reasoning-specific GSM8k.

Causal thinking enables humans to understand not just what is seen, but why it happens. To replicate this capability in modern AI systems, we introduce the task of visual causal discovery. It requires models to infer cause-and-effect relations among visual entities across diverse scenarios instead of merely perceiving their presence. To this end, we first construct the Visual Causal Graph dataset (VCG-32K), a large-scale collection of over 32,000 images annotated with entity-level causal graphs, and further develop CauSight, a novel vision-language model to perform visual causal discovery through causally aware reasoning. Our training recipe integrates three components: (1) training data curation from VCG-32K, (2) Tree-of-Causal-Thought (ToCT) for synthesizing reasoning trajectories, and (3) reinforcement learning with a designed causal reward to refine the reasoning policy. Experiments show that CauSight outperforms GPT-4.1 on visual causal discovery, achieving over a threefold performance boost (21% absolute gain). Our code, model, and dataset are fully open-sourced at project page: https://github.com/OpenCausaLab/CauSight.

We introduce DC-VideoGen, a post-training acceleration framework for efficient video generation. DC-VideoGen can be applied to any pre-trained video diffusion model, improving efficiency by adapting it to a deep compression latent space with lightweight fine-tuning. The framework builds on two key innovations: (i) a Deep Compression Video Autoencoder with a novel chunk-causal temporal design that achieves 32x/64x spatial and 4x temporal compression while preserving reconstruction quality and generalization to longer videos; and (ii) AE-Adapt-V, a robust adaptation strategy that enables rapid and stable transfer of pre-trained models into the new latent space. Adapting the pre-trained Wan-2.1-14B model with DC-VideoGen requires only 10 GPU days on the NVIDIA H100 GPU. The accelerated models achieve up to 14.8x lower inference latency than their base counterparts without compromising quality, and further enable 2160x3840 video generation on a single GPU. Code: https://github.com/dc-ai-projects/DC-VideoGen.

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities across various tasks but still face challenges such as hallucinations. One potential reason for hallucinations is the lack of relevant knowledge or context. Thus, a promising solution to mitigate this issue involves instructing LLMs to respond with "I do not know" when a question falls outside their knowledge domain or the provided context. However, in this work, we observed that LLMs struggle to admit their lack of knowledge, primarily due to existing instruction datasets designed to encourage specific answers. To improve large language models' capability to recognize the boundaries of their knowledge, we propose a novel approach called uncertainty-sensitive tuning. This method involves two-stage training designed for uncertainty recognition and prompt-sensitive activation. In the first stage, we guide the LLM to reject unknown questions. In the second stage, we recover the decreased performance in QA tasks by incorporating designed causal instructions. By leveraging this method, we aim to enhance the model's ability to identify areas of uncertainty. The experimental results demonstrate that our proposed uncertainty-sensitive tuning method significantly improves the performance of the Llama2-chat-7B model. Specifically, it achieves a substantial 34.7% improvement in handling questions involving knowledge gaps compared to the original model. Moreover, our approach outperforms GPT-4, exhibiting a 9.4% increase in overall performance. We open-source the model and code on GitHub.

Interference is ubiquitous when conducting causal experiments over networks. Except for certain network structures, causal inference on the network in the presence of interference is difficult due to the entanglement between the treatment assignments and the interference levels. In this article, we conduct causal inference under interference on an observed, sparse but connected network, and we propose a novel design of experiments based on an independent set. Compared to conventional designs, the independent-set design focuses on an independent subset of data and controls their interference exposures through the assignments to the rest (auxiliary set). We provide a lower bound on the size of the independent set from a greedy algorithm , and justify the theoretical performance of estimators under the proposed design. Our approach is capable of estimating both spillover effects and treatment effects. We justify its superiority over conventional methods and illustrate the empirical performance through simulations.

Binaural rendering aims to synthesize binaural audio that mimics natural hearing based on a mono audio and the locations of the speaker and listener. Although many methods have been proposed to solve this problem, they struggle with rendering quality and streamable inference. Synthesizing high-quality binaural audio that is indistinguishable from real-world recordings requires precise modeling of binaural cues, room reverb, and ambient sounds. Additionally, real-world applications demand streaming inference. To address these challenges, we propose a flow matching based streaming binaural speech synthesis framework called BinauralFlow. We consider binaural rendering to be a generation problem rather than a regression problem and design a conditional flow matching model to render high-quality audio. Moreover, we design a causal U-Net architecture that estimates the current audio frame solely based on past information to tailor generative models for streaming inference. Finally, we introduce a continuous inference pipeline incorporating streaming STFT/ISTFT operations, a buffer bank, a midpoint solver, and an early skip schedule to improve rendering continuity and speed. Quantitative and qualitative evaluations demonstrate the superiority of our method over SOTA approaches. A perceptual study further reveals that our model is nearly indistinguishable from real-world recordings, with a 42% confusion rate.

Recent work on neural algorithmic reasoning has investigated the reasoning capabilities of neural networks, effectively demonstrating they can learn to execute classical algorithms on unseen data coming from the train distribution. However, the performance of existing neural reasoners significantly degrades on out-of-distribution (OOD) test data, where inputs have larger sizes. In this work, we make an important observation: there are many different inputs for which an algorithm will perform certain intermediate computations identically. This insight allows us to develop data augmentation procedures that, given an algorithm's intermediate trajectory, produce inputs for which the target algorithm would have exactly the same next trajectory step. Then, we employ a causal framework to design a corresponding self-supervised objective, and we prove that it improves the OOD generalisation capabilities of the reasoner. We evaluate our method on the CLRS algorithmic reasoning benchmark, where we show up to 3times improvements on the OOD test data.

The current advances in generative AI for learning large neural network models with the capability to produce essays, images, music and even 3D assets from text prompts create opportunities for a manifold of disciplines. In the present paper, we study the potential of deep text-to-3D models in the engineering domain, with focus on the chances and challenges when integrating and interacting with 3D assets in computational simulation-based design optimization. In contrast to traditional design optimization of 3D geometries that often searches for the optimum designs using numerical representations, such as B-Spline surface or deformation parameters in vehicle aerodynamic optimization, natural language challenges the optimization framework by requiring a different interpretation of variation operators while at the same time may ease and motivate the human user interaction. Here, we propose and realize a fully automated evolutionary design optimization framework using Shap-E, a recently published text-to-3D asset network by OpenAI, in the context of aerodynamic vehicle optimization. For representing text prompts in the evolutionary optimization, we evaluate (a) a bag-of-words approach based on prompt templates and Wordnet samples, and (b) a tokenisation approach based on prompt templates and the byte pair encoding method from GPT4. Our main findings from the optimizations indicate that, first, it is important to ensure that the designs generated from prompts are within the object class of application, i.e. diverse and novel designs need to be realistic, and, second, that more research is required to develop methods where the strength of text prompt variations and the resulting variations of the 3D designs share causal relations to some degree to improve the optimization.

Online competitive action games have flourished as a space for entertainment and social connections, yet they face challenges from a small percentage of players engaging in disruptive behaviors. This study delves into the under-explored realm of understanding the effects of moderation on player behavior within online gaming on an example of a popular title - Call of Duty(R): Modern Warfare(R)II. We employ a quasi-experimental design and causal inference techniques to examine the impact of moderation in a real-world industry-scale moderation system. We further delve into novel aspects around the impact of delayed moderation, as well as the severity of applied punishment. We examine these effects on a set of four disruptive behaviors including cheating, offensive user name, chat, and voice. Our findings uncover the dual impact moderation has on reducing disruptive behavior and discouraging disruptive players from participating. We further uncover differences in the effectiveness of quick and delayed moderation and the varying severity of punishment. Our examination of real-world gaming interactions sets a precedent in understanding the effectiveness of moderation and its impact on player behavior. Our insights offer actionable suggestions for the most promising avenues for improving real-world moderation practices, as well as the heterogeneous impact moderation has on indifferent players.

This paper presents Diffusion via Autoregressive models (D-AR), a new paradigm recasting the image diffusion process as a vanilla autoregressive procedure in the standard next-token-prediction fashion. We start by designing the tokenizer that converts images into sequences of discrete tokens, where tokens in different positions can be decoded into different diffusion denoising steps in the pixel space. Thanks to the diffusion properties, these tokens naturally follow a coarse-to-fine order, which directly lends itself to autoregressive modeling. Therefore, we apply standard next-token prediction on these tokens, without modifying any underlying designs (either causal masks or training/inference strategies), and such sequential autoregressive token generation directly mirrors the diffusion procedure in image space. That is, once the autoregressive model generates an increment of tokens, we can directly decode these tokens into the corresponding diffusion denoising step in the streaming manner. Our pipeline naturally reveals several intriguing properties, for example, it supports consistent previews when generating only a subset of tokens and enables zero-shot layout-controlled synthesis. On the standard ImageNet benchmark, our method achieves 2.09 FID using a 775M Llama backbone with 256 discrete tokens. We hope our work can inspire future research on unified autoregressive architectures of visual synthesis, especially with large language models. Code and models will be available at https://github.com/showlab/D-AR

Spatial confounding poses a significant challenge in scientific studies involving spatial data, where unobserved spatial variables can influence both treatment and outcome, possibly leading to spurious associations. To address this problem, we introduce SpaCE: The Spatial Confounding Environment, the first toolkit to provide realistic benchmark datasets and tools for systematically evaluating causal inference methods designed to alleviate spatial confounding. Each dataset includes training data, true counterfactuals, a spatial graph with coordinates, and smoothness and confounding scores characterizing the effect of a missing spatial confounder. It also includes realistic semi-synthetic outcomes and counterfactuals, generated using state-of-the-art machine learning ensembles, following best practices for causal inference benchmarks. The datasets cover real treatment and covariates from diverse domains, including climate, health and social sciences. SpaCE facilitates an automated end-to-end pipeline, simplifying data loading, experimental setup, and evaluating machine learning and causal inference models. The SpaCE project provides several dozens of datasets of diverse sizes and spatial complexity. It is publicly available as a Python package, encouraging community feedback and contributions.

We study experiment design for unique identification of the causal graph of a simple SCM, where the graph may contain cycles. The presence of cycles in the structure introduces major challenges for experiment design as, unlike acyclic graphs, learning the skeleton of causal graphs with cycles may not be possible from merely the observational distribution. Furthermore, intervening on a variable in such graphs does not necessarily lead to orienting all the edges incident to it. In this paper, we propose an experiment design approach that can learn both cyclic and acyclic graphs and hence, unifies the task of experiment design for both types of graphs. We provide a lower bound on the number of experiments required to guarantee the unique identification of the causal graph in the worst case, showing that the proposed approach is order-optimal in terms of the number of experiments up to an additive logarithmic term. Moreover, we extend our result to the setting where the size of each experiment is bounded by a constant. For this case, we show that our approach is optimal in terms of the size of the largest experiment required for uniquely identifying the causal graph in the worst case.

Event Causality Identification (ECI) aims at determining whether there is a causal relation between two event mentions. Conventional prompt learning designs a prompt template to first predict an answer word and then maps it to the final decision. Unlike conventional prompts, we argue that predicting an answer word may not be a necessary prerequisite for the ECI task. Instead, we can first make a deterministic assumption on the existence of causal relation between two events and then evaluate its rationality to either accept or reject the assumption. The design motivation is to try the most utilization of the encyclopedia-like knowledge embedded in a pre-trained language model. In light of such considerations, we propose a deterministic assumption prompt learning model, called DAPrompt, for the ECI task. In particular, we design a simple deterministic assumption template concatenating with the input event pair, which includes two masks as predicted events' tokens. We use the probabilities of predicted events to evaluate the assumption rationality for the final event causality decision. Experiments on the EventStoryLine corpus and Causal-TimeBank corpus validate our design objective in terms of significant performance improvements over the state-of-the-art algorithms.

Understanding causality should be a core requirement of any attempt to build real impact through AI. Due to the inherent unobservability of counterfactuals, large randomised trials (RCTs) are the standard for causal inference. But large experiments are generically expensive, and randomisation carries its own costs, e.g. when suboptimal decisions are trialed. Recent work has proposed more sample-efficient alternatives to RCTs, but these are not adaptable to the downstream application for which the causal effect is sought. In this work, we develop a task-specific approach to experimental design and derive sampling strategies customised to particular downstream applications. Across a range of important tasks, real-world datasets, and sample sizes, our method outperforms other benchmarks, e.g. requiring an order-of-magnitude less data to match RCT performance on targeted marketing tasks.

Learning causal structure from observational data often assumes that we observe independent and identically distributed (i.\,i.\,d) data. The traditional approach aims to find a graphical representation that encodes the same set of conditional independence relationships as those present in the observed distribution. It is known that under i.\,i.\,d assumption, even with infinite data, there is a limit to how fine-grained a causal structure we can identify. To overcome this limitation, recent work has explored using data originating from different, related environments to learn richer causal structure. These approaches implicitly rely on the independent causal mechanisms (ICM) principle, which postulates that the mechanism giving rise to an effect given its causes and the mechanism which generates the causes do not inform or influence each other. Thus, components of the causal model can independently change from environment to environment. Despite its wide application in machine learning and causal inference, there is a lack of statistical formalization of the ICM principle and how it enables identification of richer causal structures from grouped data. Here we present new causal de Finetti theorems which offer a first statistical formalization of ICM principle and show how causal structure identification is possible from exchangeable data. Our work provides theoretical justification for a broad range of techniques leveraging multi-environment data to learn causal structure.

Many benchmarks for automated causal inference evaluate a system's performance based on a single numerical output, such as an Average Treatment Effect (ATE). This approach conflates two distinct steps in causal analysis: identification-formulating a valid research design under stated assumptions-and estimation-implementing that design numerically on finite data. We introduce CausalReasoningBenchmark, a benchmark of 173 queries across 138 real-world datasets, curated from 85 peer-reviewed research papers and four widely-used causal-inference textbooks. For each query a system must produce (i) a structured identification specification that names the strategy, the treatment, outcome, and control variables, and all design-specific elements, and (ii) a point estimate with a standard error. By scoring these two components separately, our benchmark enables granular diagnosis: it distinguishes failures in causal reasoning from errors in numerical execution. Baseline results with a state-of-the-art LLM show that, while the model correctly identifies the high-level strategy in 84 % of cases, full identification-specification correctness drops to only 30 %, revealing that the bottleneck lies in the nuanced details of research design rather than in computation. CausalReasoningBenchmark is publicly available on Hugging Face and is designed to foster the development of more robust automated causal-inference systems.

In this work, we propose Causal Autoregressive Diffusion (CARD), a novel framework that unifies the training efficiency of ARMs with the high-throughput inference of diffusion models. CARD reformulates the diffusion process within a strictly causal attention mask, enabling dense, per-token supervision in a single forward pass. To address the optimization instability of causal diffusion, we introduce a soft-tailed masking schema to preserve local context and a context-aware reweighting mechanism derived from signal-to-noise principles. This design enables dynamic parallel decoding, where the model leverages KV-caching to adaptively generate variable-length token sequences based on confidence. Empirically, CARD outperforms existing discrete diffusion baselines while reducing training latency by 3 times compared to block diffusion methods. Our results demonstrate that CARD achieves ARM-level data efficiency while unlocking the latency benefits of parallel generation, establishing a robust paradigm for next-generation efficient LLMs.

In causal inference, estimating heterogeneous treatment effects (HTE) is critical for identifying how different subgroups respond to interventions, with broad applications in fields such as precision medicine and personalized advertising. Although HTE estimation methods aim to improve accuracy, how to provide explicit subgroup descriptions remains unclear, hindering data interpretation and strategic intervention management. In this paper, we propose CURLS, a novel rule learning method leveraging HTE, which can effectively describe subgroups with significant treatment effects. Specifically, we frame causal rule learning as a discrete optimization problem, finely balancing treatment effect with variance and considering the rule interpretability. We design an iterative procedure based on the minorize-maximization algorithm and solve a submodular lower bound as an approximation for the original. Quantitative experiments and qualitative case studies verify that compared with state-of-the-art methods, CURLS can find subgroups where the estimated and true effects are 16.1% and 13.8% higher and the variance is 12.0% smaller, while maintaining similar or better estimation accuracy and rule interpretability. Code is available at https://osf.io/zwp2k/.

Large language models (LLMs) have shown promise in medical question answering but often struggle with hallucinations and shallow reasoning, particularly in tasks requiring nuanced clinical understanding. Retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) offers a practical and privacy-preserving way to enhance LLMs with external medical knowledge. However, most existing approaches rely on surface-level semantic retrieval and lack the structured reasoning needed for clinical decision support. We introduce MedCoT-RAG, a domain-specific framework that combines causal-aware document retrieval with structured chain-of-thought prompting tailored to medical workflows. This design enables models to retrieve evidence aligned with diagnostic logic and generate step-by-step causal reasoning reflective of real-world clinical practice. Experiments on three diverse medical QA benchmarks show that MedCoT-RAG outperforms strong baselines by up to 10.3% over vanilla RAG and 6.4% over advanced domain-adapted methods, improving accuracy, interpretability, and consistency in complex medical tasks.

Despite notable advancements in prompting methods for Large Language Models (LLMs), such as Chain-of-Thought (CoT), existing strategies still suffer from excessive token usage and limited generalisability across diverse reasoning tasks. To address these limitations, we propose an Adaptive Causal Prompting with Sketch-of-Thought (ACPS) framework, which leverages structural causal models to infer the causal effect of a query on its answer and adaptively select an appropriate intervention (i.e., standard front-door and conditional front-door adjustments). This design enables generalisable causal reasoning across heterogeneous tasks without task-specific retraining. By replacing verbose CoT with concise Sketch-of-Thought, ACPS enables efficient reasoning that significantly reduces token usage and inference cost. Extensive experiments on multiple reasoning benchmarks and LLMs demonstrate that ACPS consistently outperforms existing prompting baselines in terms of accuracy, robustness, and computational efficiency.

Recent hybrid video generation models combine autoregressive temporal dynamics with diffusion-based spatial denoising, but their sequential, iterative nature leads to error accumulation and long inference times. In this work, we propose a distillation-based framework for efficient causal video generation that enables high-quality synthesis with extremely limited denoising steps. Our approach builds upon the Distribution Matching Distillation (DMD) framework and proposes a novel Adversarial Self-Distillation (ASD) strategy, which aligns the outputs of the student model's n-step denoising process with its (n+1)-step version at the distribution level. This design provides smoother supervision by bridging small intra-student gaps and more informative guidance by combining teacher knowledge with locally consistent student behavior, substantially improving training stability and generation quality in extremely few-step scenarios (e.g., 1-2 steps). In addition, we present a First-Frame Enhancement (FFE) strategy, which allocates more denoising steps to the initial frames to mitigate error propagation while applying larger skipping steps to later frames. Extensive experiments on VBench demonstrate that our method surpasses state-of-the-art approaches in both one-step and two-step video generation. Notably, our framework produces a single distilled model that flexibly supports multiple inference-step settings, eliminating the need for repeated re-distillation and enabling efficient, high-quality video synthesis.

Causal reasoning is viewed as crucial for achieving human-level machine intelligence. Recent advances in language models have expanded the horizons of artificial intelligence across various domains, sparking inquiries into their potential for causal reasoning. In this work, we introduce Causal evaluation of Language Models (CaLM), which, to the best of our knowledge, is the first comprehensive benchmark for evaluating the causal reasoning capabilities of language models. First, we propose the CaLM framework, which establishes a foundational taxonomy consisting of four modules: causal target (i.e., what to evaluate), adaptation (i.e., how to obtain the results), metric (i.e., how to measure the results), and error (i.e., how to analyze the bad results). This taxonomy defines a broad evaluation design space while systematically selecting criteria and priorities. Second, we compose the CaLM dataset, comprising 126,334 data samples, to provide curated sets of causal targets, adaptations, metrics, and errors, offering extensive coverage for diverse research pursuits. Third, we conduct an extensive evaluation of 28 leading language models on a core set of 92 causal targets, 9 adaptations, 7 metrics, and 12 error types. Fourth, we perform detailed analyses of the evaluation results across various dimensions (e.g., adaptation, scale). Fifth, we present 50 high-level empirical findings across 9 dimensions (e.g., model), providing valuable guidance for future language model development. Finally, we develop a multifaceted platform, including a website, leaderboards, datasets, and toolkits, to support scalable and adaptable assessments. We envision CaLM as an ever-evolving benchmark for the community, systematically updated with new causal targets, adaptations, models, metrics, and error types to reflect ongoing research advancements. Project website is at https://opencausalab.github.io/CaLM.

Recent Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) have demonstrated significant progress in perceiving and reasoning over multimodal inquiries, ushering in a new research era for foundation models. However, vision-language misalignment in MLLMs has emerged as a critical challenge, where the textual responses generated by these models are not factually aligned with the given text-image inputs. Existing efforts to address vision-language misalignment have focused on developing specialized vision-language connectors or leveraging visual instruction tuning from diverse domains. In this paper, we tackle this issue from a fundamental yet unexplored perspective by revisiting the core architecture of MLLMs. Most MLLMs are typically built on decoder-only LLMs consisting of a causal attention mechanism, which limits the ability of earlier modalities (e.g., images) to incorporate information from later modalities (e.g., text). To address this problem, we propose AKI, a novel MLLM that unlocks causal attention into modality-mutual attention (MMA) to enable image tokens to attend to text tokens. This simple yet effective design allows AKI to achieve superior performance in 12 multimodal understanding benchmarks (+7.2% on average) without introducing additional parameters and increasing training time. Our MMA design is intended to be generic, allowing for application across various modalities, and scalable to accommodate diverse multimodal scenarios. The code is publicly available at https://github.com/sony/aki, and we will release our AKI-4B model to encourage further advancements in MLLMs across various directions.

Understanding memorisation in language models has practical and societal implications, e.g., studying models' training dynamics or preventing copyright infringements. Prior work defines memorisation as the causal effect of training with an instance on the model's ability to predict that instance. This definition relies on a counterfactual: the ability to observe what would have happened had the model not seen that instance. Existing methods struggle to provide computationally efficient and accurate estimates of this counterfactual. Further, they often estimate memorisation for a model architecture rather than for a specific model instance. This paper fills an important gap in the literature, proposing a new, principled, and efficient method to estimate memorisation based on the difference-in-differences design from econometrics. Using this method, we characterise a model's memorisation profile--its memorisation trends across training--by only observing its behaviour on a small set of instances throughout training. In experiments with the Pythia model suite, we find that memorisation (i) is stronger and more persistent in larger models, (ii) is determined by data order and learning rate, and (iii) has stable trends across model sizes, thus making memorisation in larger models predictable from smaller ones.

This work highlights that video world modeling, alongside vision-language pre-training, establishes a fresh and independent foundation for robot learning. Intuitively, video world models provide the ability to imagine the near future by understanding the causality between actions and visual dynamics. Inspired by this, we introduce LingBot-VA, an autoregressive diffusion framework that learns frame prediction and policy execution simultaneously. Our model features three carefully crafted designs: (1) a shared latent space, integrating vision and action tokens, driven by a Mixture-of-Transformers (MoT) architecture, (2) a closed-loop rollout mechanism, allowing for ongoing acquisition of environmental feedback with ground-truth observations, (3) an asynchronous inference pipeline, parallelizing action prediction and motor execution to support efficient control. We evaluate our model on both simulation benchmarks and real-world scenarios, where it shows significant promise in long-horizon manipulation, data efficiency in post-training, and strong generalizability to novel configurations. The code and model are made publicly available to facilitate the community.

The goal of video summarization is to automatically shorten videos such that it conveys the overall story without losing relevant information. In many application scenarios, improper video summarization can have a large impact. For example in forensics, the quality of the generated video summary will affect an investigator's judgment while in journalism it might yield undesired bias. Because of this, modeling explainability is a key concern. One of the best ways to address the explainability challenge is to uncover the causal relations that steer the process and lead to the result. Current machine learning-based video summarization algorithms learn optimal parameters but do not uncover causal relationships. Hence, they suffer from a relative lack of explainability. In this work, a Causal Explainer, dubbed Causalainer, is proposed to address this issue. Multiple meaningful random variables and their joint distributions are introduced to characterize the behaviors of key components in the problem of video summarization. In addition, helper distributions are introduced to enhance the effectiveness of model training. In visual-textual input scenarios, the extra input can decrease the model performance. A causal semantics extractor is designed to tackle this issue by effectively distilling the mutual information from the visual and textual inputs. Experimental results on commonly used benchmarks demonstrate that the proposed method achieves state-of-the-art performance while being more explainable.

Differential privacy is a widely adopted framework designed to safeguard the sensitive information of data providers within a data set. It is based on the application of controlled noise at the interface between the server that stores and processes the data, and the data consumers. Local differential privacy is a variant that allows data providers to apply the privatization mechanism themselves on their data individually. Therefore it provides protection also in contexts in which the server, or even the data collector, cannot be trusted. The introduction of noise, however, inevitably affects the utility of the data, particularly by distorting the correlations between individual data components. This distortion can prove detrimental to tasks such as causal discovery. In this paper, we consider various well-known locally differentially private mechanisms and compare the trade-off between the privacy they provide, and the accuracy of the causal structure produced by algorithms for causal learning when applied to data obfuscated by these mechanisms. Our analysis yields valuable insights for selecting appropriate local differentially private protocols for causal discovery tasks. We foresee that our findings will aid researchers and practitioners in conducting locally private causal discovery.

In view of the problem that each subchain in the chain-of-model (CoM) relies only on the information of the previous subchain and may lose long-range dependencies due to the causal mask blocking the global context flow between multi-level subchains, this work proposes a graph of causal evolution (GoCE). Its core principle is to map the implicit token representation into a differentiable and sparse causal adjacency matrix, then permeate causal constraints through each layer of calculation using causal-masked attention and causal-MoE. By combining intervention consistency loss test and self-evolution gate, the dynamic balance between causal structure learning and adaptive updating of transformer architecture is realized. The researcher built experimental environments in sandboxes built with Claude Sonnet 4, o4-mini-high, and DeepSeek R1 respectively with the transformer variant architecture introduced in GoCE. It is evaluated on publicly available datasets including CLUTRR, CLADDER, EX-FEVER, and CausalQA and compared with the baseline LLMs. The finding proves that GoCE strengthens the transformer's ability to capture long-range causal dependencies, while the ability to self-evolve is improved. It not only surpasses the design of CoM in terms of design principles, but also provides experience for future research on causal learning and continuous adaptive improvement.

Posterior sampling allows the exploitation of prior knowledge of the environment's transition dynamics to improve the sample efficiency of reinforcement learning. The prior is typically specified as a class of parametric distributions, a task that can be cumbersome in practice, often resulting in the choice of uninformative priors. In this work, we propose a novel posterior sampling approach in which the prior is given as a (partial) causal graph over the environment's variables. The latter is often more natural to design, such as listing known causal dependencies between biometric features in a medical treatment study. Specifically, we propose a hierarchical Bayesian procedure, called C-PSRL, simultaneously learning the full causal graph at the higher level and the parameters of the resulting factored dynamics at the lower level. For this procedure, we provide an analysis of its Bayesian regret, which explicitly connects the regret rate with the degree of prior knowledge. Our numerical evaluation conducted in illustrative domains confirms that C-PSRL strongly improves the efficiency of posterior sampling with an uninformative prior while performing close to posterior sampling with the full causal graph.

True intelligence hinges on the ability to uncover and leverage hidden causal relations. Despite significant progress in AI and computer vision (CV), there remains a lack of benchmarks for assessing models' abilities to infer latent causality from complex visual data. In this paper, we introduce \textbf{Causal3D}, a novel and comprehensive benchmark that integrates structured data (tables) with corresponding visual representations (images) to evaluate causal reasoning. Designed within a systematic framework, Causal3D comprises 19 3D-scene datasets capturing diverse causal relations, views, and backgrounds, enabling evaluations across scenes of varying complexity. We assess multiple state-of-the-art methods, including classical causal discovery, causal representation learning, and large/vision-language models (LLMs/VLMs). Our experiments show that as causal structures grow more complex without prior knowledge, performance declines significantly, highlighting the challenges even advanced methods face in complex causal scenarios. Causal3D serves as a vital resource for advancing causal reasoning in CV and fostering trustworthy AI in critical domains.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly used for boosting organizational efficiency and automating tasks. While not originally designed for complex cognitive processes, recent efforts have further extended to employ LLMs in activities such as reasoning, planning, and decision-making. In business processes, such abilities could be invaluable for leveraging on the massive corpora LLMs have been trained on for gaining deep understanding of such processes. In this work, we plant the seeds for the development of a benchmark to assess the ability of LLMs to reason about causal and process perspectives of business operations. We refer to this view as Causally-augmented Business Processes (BP^C). The core of the benchmark comprises a set of BP^C related situations, a set of questions about these situations, and a set of deductive rules employed to systematically resolve the ground truth answers to these questions. Also with the power of LLMs, the seed is then instantiated into a larger-scale set of domain-specific situations and questions. Reasoning on BP^C is of crucial importance for process interventions and process improvement. Our benchmark could be used in one of two possible modalities: testing the performance of any target LLM and training an LLM to advance its capability to reason about BP^C.

Knowledge probing assesses to which degree a language model (LM) has successfully learned relational knowledge during pre-training. Probing is an inexpensive way to compare LMs of different sizes and training configurations. However, previous approaches rely on the objective function used in pre-training LMs and are thus applicable only to masked or causal LMs. As a result, comparing different types of LMs becomes impossible. To address this, we propose an approach that uses an LM's inherent ability to estimate the log-likelihood of any given textual statement. We carefully design an evaluation dataset of 7,731 instances (40,916 in a larger variant) from which we produce alternative statements for each relational fact, one of which is correct. We then evaluate whether an LM correctly assigns the highest log-likelihood to the correct statement. Our experimental evaluation of 22 common LMs shows that our proposed framework, BEAR, can effectively probe for knowledge across different LM types. We release the BEAR datasets and an open-source framework that implements the probing approach to the research community to facilitate the evaluation and development of LMs.

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are the benchmark for causal inference, yet field implementation can deviate. We here present a remote audit - a design-based, preregistrable diagnostic that uses only pre-treatment satellite imagery to test whether assignment is independent of local conditions. The conditional randomization test of the remote audit evaluates whether treatment assignment is more predictable from pre-treatment satellite features than expected under the experiment's registered mechanism, providing a finite-sample valid, design-based diagnostic that requires no parametric assumptions. The procedure is finite-sample valid, honors blocks and clusters, and controls multiplicity across image models and resolutions via a max-statistic. We illustrate with two RCTs: Uganda's Youth Opportunities Program, where the audit corroborates randomization and flags selection and missing-data risks; and a school-based trial in Bangladesh, where assignment is highly predictable from pre-treatment features relative to the stated design, consistent with independent concerns about irregularities. Remote audits complement balance tests, lower early-stage costs, and enable rapid design checks when baseline surveys are expensive or infeasible.

Answering counterfactual queries has many important applications such as knowledge discovery and explainability, but is challenging when causal variables are unobserved and we only see a projection onto an observation space, for instance, image pixels. One approach is to recover the latent Structural Causal Model (SCM), but this typically needs unrealistic assumptions, such as linearity of the causal mechanisms. Another approach is to use na\"ive ML approximations, such as generative models, to generate counterfactual samples; however, these lack guarantees of accuracy. In this work, we strive to strike a balance between practicality and theoretical guarantees by focusing on a specific type of causal query called domain counterfactuals, which hypothesizes what a sample would have looked like if it had been generated in a different domain (or environment). Concretely, by only assuming invertibility, sparse domain interventions and access to observational data from different domains, we aim to improve domain counterfactual estimation both theoretically and practically with less restrictive assumptions. We define domain counterfactually equivalent models and prove necessary and sufficient properties for equivalent models that provide a tight characterization of the domain counterfactual equivalence classes. Building upon this result, we prove that every equivalence class contains a model where all intervened variables are at the end when topologically sorted by the causal DAG. This surprising result suggests that a model design that only allows intervention in the last k latent variables may improve model estimation for counterfactuals. We then test this model design on extensive simulated and image-based experiments which show the sparse canonical model indeed improves counterfactual estimation over baseline non-sparse models.

Streaming speech recognition architectures are employed for low-latency, real-time applications. Such architectures are often characterized by their causality. Causal architectures emit tokens at each frame, relying only on current and past signal, while non-causal models are exposed to a window of future frames at each step to increase predictive accuracy. This dichotomy amounts to a trade-off for real-time Automatic Speech Recognition (ASR) system design: profit from the low-latency benefit of strictly-causal architectures while accepting predictive performance limitations, or realize the modeling benefits of future-context models accompanied by their higher latency penalty. In this work, we relax the constraints of this choice and present the Adaptive Non-Causal Attention Transducer (ANCAT). Our architecture is non-causal in the traditional sense, but executes in a low-latency, streaming manner by dynamically choosing when to rely on future context and to what degree within the audio stream. The resulting mechanism, when coupled with our novel regularization algorithms, delivers comparable accuracy to non-causal configurations while improving significantly upon latency, closing the gap with their causal counterparts. We showcase our design experimentally by reporting comparative ASR task results with measures of accuracy and latency on both publicly accessible and production-scale, voice-assistant datasets.

We develop a method for generating causal post-hoc explanations of black-box classifiers based on a learned low-dimensional representation of the data. The explanation is causal in the sense that changing learned latent factors produces a change in the classifier output statistics. To construct these explanations, we design a learning framework that leverages a generative model and information-theoretic measures of causal influence. Our objective function encourages both the generative model to faithfully represent the data distribution and the latent factors to have a large causal influence on the classifier output. Our method learns both global and local explanations, is compatible with any classifier that admits class probabilities and a gradient, and does not require labeled attributes or knowledge of causal structure. Using carefully controlled test cases, we provide intuition that illuminates the function of our objective. We then demonstrate the practical utility of our method on image recognition tasks.

As multi-agent AI systems are increasingly deployed in real-world settings - from automated customer support to DevOps remediation - failures become harder to diagnose due to cascading effects, hidden dependencies, and long execution traces. We present AgentTrace, a lightweight causal tracing framework for post-hoc failure diagnosis in deployed multi-agent workflows. AgentTrace reconstructs causal graphs from execution logs, traces backward from error manifestations, and ranks candidate root causes using interpretable structural and positional signals - without requiring LLM inference at debugging time. Across a diverse benchmark of multi-agent failure scenarios designed to reflect common deployment patterns, AgentTrace localizes root causes with high accuracy and sub-second latency, significantly outperforming both heuristic and LLM-based baselines. Our results suggest that causal tracing provides a practical foundation for improving the reliability and trustworthiness of agentic systems in the wild.

Large Language Models (LLMs) show promise in biomedicine but lack true causal understanding, relying instead on correlations. This paper envisions causal LLM agents that integrate multimodal data (text, images, genomics, etc.) and perform intervention-based reasoning to infer cause-and-effect. Addressing this requires overcoming key challenges: designing safe, controllable agentic frameworks; developing rigorous benchmarks for causal evaluation; integrating heterogeneous data sources; and synergistically combining LLMs with structured knowledge (KGs) and formal causal inference tools. Such agents could unlock transformative opportunities, including accelerating drug discovery through automated hypothesis generation and simulation, enabling personalized medicine through patient-specific causal models. This research agenda aims to foster interdisciplinary efforts, bridging causal concepts and foundation models to develop reliable AI partners for biomedical progress.

Despite the notable advancements of existing prompting methods, such as In-Context Learning and Chain-of-Thought for Large Language Models (LLMs), they still face challenges related to various biases. Traditional debiasing methods primarily focus on the model training stage, including approaches based on data augmentation and reweighting, yet they struggle with the complex biases inherent in LLMs. To address such limitations, the causal relationship behind the prompting methods is uncovered using a structural causal model, and a novel causal prompting method based on front-door adjustment is proposed to effectively mitigate LLMs biases. In specific, causal intervention is achieved by designing the prompts without accessing the parameters and logits of LLMs. The chain-of-thought generated by LLM is employed as the mediator variable and the causal effect between input prompts and output answers is calculated through front-door adjustment to mitigate model biases. Moreover, to accurately represent the chain-of-thoughts and estimate the causal effects, contrastive learning is used to fine-tune the encoder of chain-of-thought by aligning its space with that of the LLM. Experimental results show that the proposed causal prompting approach achieves excellent performance across seven natural language processing datasets on both open-source and closed-source LLMs.

Causal reasoning and compositional reasoning are two core aspirations in generative AI. Measuring the extent of these behaviors requires principled evaluation methods. We explore a unified perspective that considers both behaviors simultaneously, termed compositional causal reasoning (CCR): the ability to infer how causal measures compose and, equivalently, how causal quantities propagate through graphs. We instantiate a framework for the systematic evaluation of CCR for the average treatment effect and the probability of necessity and sufficiency. As proof of concept, we demonstrate the design of CCR tasks for language models in the LLama, Phi, and GPT families. On a math word problem, our framework revealed a range of taxonomically distinct error patterns. Additionally, CCR errors increased with the complexity of causal paths for all models except o1.

We introduce the problem of active causal structure learning with advice. In the typical well-studied setting, the learning algorithm is given the essential graph for the observational distribution and is asked to recover the underlying causal directed acyclic graph (DAG) G^* while minimizing the number of interventions made. In our setting, we are additionally given side information about G^* as advice, e.g. a DAG G purported to be G^*. We ask whether the learning algorithm can benefit from the advice when it is close to being correct, while still having worst-case guarantees even when the advice is arbitrarily bad. Our work is in the same space as the growing body of research on algorithms with predictions. When the advice is a DAG G, we design an adaptive search algorithm to recover G^* whose intervention cost is at most O(max{1, log psi}) times the cost for verifying G^*; here, psi is a distance measure between G and G^* that is upper bounded by the number of variables n, and is exactly 0 when G=G^*. Our approximation factor matches the state-of-the-art for the advice-less setting.

Despite recent advances in video understanding, the capabilities of Large Video Language Models (LVLMs) to perform video-based causal reasoning remains underexplored, largely due to the absence of relevant and dedicated benchmarks for evaluating causal reasoning in visually grounded and goal-driven settings. To fill this gap, we introduce a novel benchmark named Video-based long-form Causal Reasoning (VCRBench). We create VCRBench using procedural videos of simple everyday activities, where the steps are deliberately shuffled with each clip capturing a key causal event, to test whether LVLMs can identify, reason about, and correctly sequence the events needed to accomplish a specific goal. Moreover, the benchmark is carefully designed to prevent LVLMs from exploiting linguistic shortcuts, as seen in multiple-choice or binary QA formats, while also avoiding the challenges associated with evaluating open-ended QA. Our evaluation of state-of-the-art LVLMs on VCRBench suggests that these models struggle with video-based long-form causal reasoning, primarily due to their difficulty in modeling long-range causal dependencies directly from visual observations. As a simple step toward enabling such capabilities, we propose Recognition-Reasoning Decomposition (RRD), a modular approach that breaks video-based causal reasoning into two sub-tasks of video recognition and causal reasoning. Our experiments on VCRBench show that RRD significantly boosts accuracy on VCRBench, with gains of up to 25.2%. Finally, our thorough analysis reveals interesting insights, for instance, that LVLMs primarily rely on language knowledge for complex video-based long-form causal reasoning tasks.

Large Language Model or LLM inference has two phases, the prompt (or prefill) phase to output the first token and the extension (or decoding) phase to the generate subsequent tokens. In this work, we propose an efficient parallelization scheme, KV-Runahead to accelerate the prompt phase. The key observation is that the extension phase generates tokens faster than the prompt phase because of key-value cache (KV-cache). Hence, KV-Runahead parallelizes the prompt phase by orchestrating multiple processes to populate the KV-cache and minimizes the time-to-first-token (TTFT). Dual-purposing the KV-cache scheme has two main benefits. Fist, since KV-cache is designed to leverage the causal attention map, we minimize computation and computation automatically. Second, since it already exists for the exten- sion phase, KV-Runahead is easy to implement. We further propose context-level load-balancing to handle uneven KV-cache generation (due to the causal attention) and to optimize TTFT. Compared with an existing parallelization scheme such as tensor or sequential parallelization where keys and values are locally generated and exchanged via all-gather collectives, our experimental results demonstrate that KV-Runahead can offer over 1.4x and 1.6x speedups for Llama 7B and Falcon 7B respectively.

Deep neural networks have significantly improved the performance of low-level vision tasks but also increased the difficulty of interpretability. A deep understanding of deep models is beneficial for both network design and practical reliability. To take up this challenge, we introduce causality theory to interpret low-level vision models and propose a model-/task-agnostic method called Causal Effect Map (CEM). With CEM, we can visualize and quantify the input-output relationships on either positive or negative effects. After analyzing various low-level vision tasks with CEM, we have reached several interesting insights, such as: (1) Using more information of input images (e.g., larger receptive field) does NOT always yield positive outcomes. (2) Attempting to incorporate mechanisms with a global receptive field (e.g., channel attention) into image denoising may prove futile. (3) Integrating multiple tasks to train a general model could encourage the network to prioritize local information over global context. Based on the causal effect theory, the proposed diagnostic tool can refresh our common knowledge and bring a deeper understanding of low-level vision models. Codes are available at https://github.com/J-FHu/CEM.

We present a general causal generative modelling framework for accurate estimation of high fidelity image counterfactuals with deep structural causal models. Estimation of interventional and counterfactual queries for high-dimensional structured variables, such as images, remains a challenging task. We leverage ideas from causal mediation analysis and advances in generative modelling to design new deep causal mechanisms for structured variables in causal models. Our experiments demonstrate that our proposed mechanisms are capable of accurate abduction and estimation of direct, indirect and total effects as measured by axiomatic soundness of counterfactuals.

Entities and events are crucial to natural language reasoning and common in procedural texts. Existing work has focused either exclusively on entity state tracking (e.g., whether a pan is hot) or on event reasoning (e.g., whether one would burn themselves by touching the pan), while these two tasks are often causally related. We propose CREPE, the first benchmark on causal reasoning of event plausibility and entity states. We show that most language models, including GPT-3, perform close to chance at .35 F1, lagging far behind human at .87 F1. We boost model performance to .59 F1 by creatively representing events as programming languages while prompting language models pretrained on code. By injecting the causal relations between entities and events as intermediate reasoning steps in our representation, we further boost the performance to .67 F1. Our findings indicate not only the challenge that CREPE brings for language models, but also the efficacy of code-like prompting combined with chain-of-thought prompting for multihop event reasoning.

We present DeepSeek-OCR 2 to investigate the feasibility of a novel encoder-DeepEncoder V2-capable of dynamically reordering visual tokens upon image semantics. Conventional vision-language models (VLMs) invariably process visual tokens in a rigid raster-scan order (top-left to bottom-right) with fixed positional encoding when fed into LLMs. However, this contradicts human visual perception, which follows flexible yet semantically coherent scanning patterns driven by inherent logical structures. Particularly for images with complex layouts, human vision exhibits causally-informed sequential processing. Inspired by this cognitive mechanism, DeepEncoder V2 is designed to endow the encoder with causal reasoning capabilities, enabling it to intelligently reorder visual tokens prior to LLM-based content interpretation. This work explores a novel paradigm: whether 2D image understanding can be effectively achieved through two-cascaded 1D causal reasoning structures, thereby offering a new architectural approach with the potential to achieve genuine 2D reasoning. Codes and model weights are publicly accessible at http://github.com/deepseek-ai/DeepSeek-OCR-2.

Automatic Speech Recognition (ASR) has seen remarkable progress, with models like OpenAI Whisper and NVIDIA Canary achieving state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance in offline transcription. However, these models are not designed for streaming (online or real-time) transcription, due to limitations in their architecture and training methodology. We propose a method to turn the transformer encoder-decoder model into a low-latency streaming model that is careless about future context. We present an analysis explaining why it is not straightforward to convert an encoder-decoder transformer to a low-latency streaming model. Our proposed method modifies the existing (non-causal) encoder to a causal encoder by fine-tuning both the encoder and decoder using Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) and a weakly aligned dataset. We then propose an updated inference mechanism that utilizes the fine-tune causal encoder and decoder to yield greedy and beam-search decoding, and is shown to be locally optimal. Experiments on low-latency chunk sizes (less than 300 msec) show that our fine-tuned model outperforms existing non-fine-tuned streaming approaches in most cases, while using a lower complexity. Additionally, we observe that our training process yields better alignment, enabling a simple method for extracting word-level timestamps. We release our training and inference code, along with the fine-tuned models, to support further research and development in streaming ASR.

Causal discovery for both cross-sectional and temporal data has traditionally followed a dataset-specific paradigm, where a new model is fitted for each individual dataset. Such an approach limits the potential of multi-dataset pretraining. The concept of large causal models (LCMs) envisions a class of pre-trained neural architectures specifically designed for temporal causal discovery. Prior approaches are constrained to small variable counts, degrade with larger inputs, and rely heavily on synthetic data, limiting generalization. We propose a principled framework for LCMs, combining diverse synthetic generators with realistic time-series datasets, allowing learning at scale. Extensive experiments on synthetic, semi-synthetic and realistic benchmarks show that LCMs scale effectively to higher variable counts and deeper architectures while maintaining strong performance. Trained models achieve competitive or superior accuracy compared to classical and neural baselines, particularly in out-of-distribution settings, while enabling fast, single-pass inference. Results demonstrate LCMs as a promising foundation-model paradigm for temporal causal discovery. Experiments and model weights are available at https://github.com/kougioulis/LCM-paper/.

Recent studies have revealed that self-sustaining cascading failures in distributed systems frequently lead to widespread outages, which are challenging to contain and recover from. Existing failure detection techniques struggle to expose such failures prior to deployment, as they typically require a complex combination of specific conditions to be triggered. This challenge stems from the inherent nature of cascading failures, as they typically involve a sequence of fault propagations, each activated by distinct conditions. This paper presents CSnake, a fault injection framework to expose self-sustaining cascading failures in distributed systems. CSnake uses the novel idea of causal stitching, which causally links multiple single-fault injections in different tests to simulate complex fault propagation chains. To identify these chains, CSnake designs a counterfactual causality analysis of fault propagations - fault causality analysis (FCA): FCA compares the execution trace of a fault injection run with its corresponding profile run (i.e., same test w/o the injection) and identifies any additional faults triggered, which are considered to have a causal relationship with the injected fault. To address the large search space of fault and workload combinations, CSnake employs a three-phase allocation protocol of test budget that prioritizes faults with unique and diverse causal consequences, increasing the likelihood of uncovering conditional fault propagations. Furthermore, to avoid incorrectly connecting fault propagations from workloads with incompatible conditions, CSnake performs a local compatibility check that approximately checks the compatibility of the path constraints associated with connected fault propagations with low overhead. CSnake detected 15 bugs that cause self-sustaining cascading failures in five systems, five of which have been confirmed with two fixed.

Inferring causal structure poses a combinatorial search problem that typically involves evaluating structures with a score or independence test. The resulting search is costly, and designing suitable scores or tests that capture prior knowledge is difficult. In this work, we propose to amortize causal structure learning. Rather than searching over structures, we train a variational inference model to directly predict the causal structure from observational or interventional data. This allows our inference model to acquire domain-specific inductive biases for causal discovery solely from data generated by a simulator, bypassing both the hand-engineering of suitable score functions and the search over graphs. The architecture of our inference model emulates permutation invariances that are crucial for statistical efficiency in structure learning, which facilitates generalization to significantly larger problem instances than seen during training. On synthetic data and semisynthetic gene expression data, our models exhibit robust generalization capabilities when subject to substantial distribution shifts and significantly outperform existing algorithms, especially in the challenging genomics domain. Our code and models are publicly available at: https://github.com/larslorch/avici.

Causal discovery is essential for advancing data-driven fields such as scientific AI and data analysis, yet existing approaches face significant time- and space-efficiency bottlenecks when scaling to large graphs. To address this challenge, we present CauScale, a neural architecture designed for efficient causal discovery that scales inference to graphs with up to 1000 nodes. CauScale improves time efficiency via a reduction unit that compresses data embeddings and improves space efficiency by adopting tied attention weights to avoid maintaining axis-specific attention maps. To keep high causal discovery accuracy, CauScale adopts a two-stream design: a data stream extracts relational evidence from high-dimensional observations, while a graph stream integrates statistical graph priors and preserves key structural signals. CauScale successfully scales to 500-node graphs during training, where prior work fails due to space limitations. Across testing data with varying graph scales and causal mechanisms, CauScale achieves 99.6% mAP on in-distribution data and 84.4% on out-of-distribution data, while delivering 4-13,000 times inference speedups over prior methods. Our project page is at https://github.com/OpenCausaLab/CauScale.

Behavior cloning is enjoying a resurgence in popularity as scaling both model and data sizes proves to provide a strong starting point for many tasks of interest. In this work, we introduce an open recipe for training a video game playing foundation model designed for inference in realtime on a consumer GPU. We release all data (8300+ hours of high quality human gameplay), training and inference code, and pretrained checkpoints under an open license. We show that our best model is capable of playing a variety of 3D video games at a level competitive with human play. We use this recipe to systematically examine the scaling laws of behavior cloning to understand how the model's performance and causal reasoning varies with model and data scale. We first show in a simple toy problem that, for some types of causal reasoning, increasing both the amount of training data and the depth of the network results in the model learning a more causal policy. We then systematically study how causality varies with the number of parameters (and depth) and training steps in scaled models of up to 1.2 billion parameters, and we find similar scaling results to what we observe in the toy problem.

With the advent of larger and more complex deep learning models, such as in Natural Language Processing (NLP), model qualities like explainability and interpretability, albeit highly desirable, are becoming harder challenges to tackle and solve. For example, state-of-the-art models in text classification are black-box by design. Although standard explanation methods provide some degree of explainability, these are mostly correlation-based methods and do not provide much insight into the model. The alternative of causal explainability is more desirable to achieve but extremely challenging in NLP due to a variety of reasons. Inspired by recent endeavors to utilize Large Language Models (LLMs) as experts, in this work, we aim to leverage the instruction-following and textual understanding capabilities of recent state-of-the-art LLMs to facilitate causal explainability via counterfactual explanation generation for black-box text classifiers. To do this, we propose a three-step pipeline via which, we use an off-the-shelf LLM to: (1) identify the latent or unobserved features in the input text, (2) identify the input features associated with the latent features, and finally (3) use the identified input features to generate a counterfactual explanation. We experiment with our pipeline on multiple NLP text classification datasets, with several recent LLMs, and present interesting and promising findings.

Large Language Models (LLMs), despite their advanced linguistic capabilities, fundamentally lack an intuitive understanding of physical dynamics, which limits their effectiveness in real-world scenarios that require causal reasoning. In this paper, we introduce Causal World Model Induction (CWMI), a novel framework designed to embed an explicit model of causal physics within an LLM. Our approach incorporates a dedicated Causal Physics Module (CPM) and a new training objective called Causal Intervention Loss, encouraging the model to learn cause-and-effect relationships from multimodal data. By training the model to predict the outcomes of hypothetical interventions instead of merely capturing statistical correlations, CWMI develops a robust internal representation of physical laws. Experimental results show that CWMI significantly outperforms state-of-the-art LLMs on zero-shot physical reasoning tasks, including the PIQA benchmark and our newly proposed PhysiCa-Bench dataset. These findings demonstrate that inducing a causal world model is a critical step toward more reliable and generalizable AI systems.

Urban causal research is essential for understanding the complex dynamics of cities and informing evidence-based policies. However, it is challenged by the inefficiency and bias of hypothesis generation, barriers to multimodal data complexity, and the methodological fragility of causal experimentation. Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) present an opportunity to rethink how urban causal analysis is conducted. This Perspective examines current urban causal research by analyzing taxonomies that categorize research topics, data sources, and methodological approaches to identify structural gaps. We then introduce an LLM-driven conceptual framework, AutoUrbanCI, composed of four distinct modular agents responsible for hypothesis generation, data engineering, experiment design and execution, and results interpretation with policy recommendations. We propose evaluation criteria for rigor and transparency and reflect on implications for human-AI collaboration, equity, and accountability. We call for a new research agenda that embraces AI-augmented workflows not as replacements for human expertise but as tools to broaden participation, improve reproducibility, and unlock more inclusive forms of urban causal reasoning.

Causal reasoning, the ability to identify cause-and-effect relationship, is crucial in human thinking. Although large language models (LLMs) succeed in many NLP tasks, it is still challenging for them to conduct complex causal reasoning like abductive reasoning and counterfactual reasoning. Given the fact that programming code may express causal relations more often and explicitly with conditional statements like ``if``, we want to explore whether Code-LLMs acquire better causal reasoning abilities. Our experiments show that compared to text-only LLMs, Code-LLMs with code prompts are significantly better in causal reasoning. We further intervene on the prompts from different aspects, and discover that the programming structure is crucial in code prompt design, while Code-LLMs are robust towards format perturbations.

Prompt-based probing has been widely used in evaluating the abilities of pretrained language models (PLMs). Unfortunately, recent studies have discovered such an evaluation may be inaccurate, inconsistent and unreliable. Furthermore, the lack of understanding its inner workings, combined with its wide applicability, has the potential to lead to unforeseen risks for evaluating and applying PLMs in real-world applications. To discover, understand and quantify the risks, this paper investigates the prompt-based probing from a causal view, highlights three critical biases which could induce biased results and conclusions, and proposes to conduct debiasing via causal intervention. This paper provides valuable insights for the design of unbiased datasets, better probing frameworks and more reliable evaluations of pretrained language models. Furthermore, our conclusions also echo that we need to rethink the criteria for identifying better pretrained language models. We openly released the source code and data at https://github.com/c-box/causalEval.

Protein language models (PLMs) face a fundamental divide: masked language models (MLMs) excel at fitness prediction while causal models enable generation, forcing practitioners to maintain separate architectures. We introduce Proust, a 309M-parameter causal PLM that bridges this gap through architectural innovations adapted from recent LLM research, including grouped-query attention with shared K/V projections, cross-layer value residuals, and depthwise causal convolutions. Trained on 33B tokens in 40 B200 GPU-hours, Proust achieves Spearman ρ= 0.390 on ProteinGym substitutions, competitive with MLMs requiring 50--200times the compute. On indels, Proust sets a new state-of-the-art, outperforming models up to 20times larger. On EVEREST viral fitness benchmarks, it approaches structure-aware methods using sequence alone. These powerful representations position Proust in a sweet spot as it also retains native generative capabilities that MLMs lack by design. Interpretability analysis reveals that per-position entropy variance predicts, to an extent, when retrieval augmentation helps and hurts. Such insights can grow in both quantity and quality at scale and inform capabilities such as test-time scaling. Code and weights are available at https://github.com/Furkan9015/proust-inference

Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) has significantly enhanced large language models (LLMs) in knowledge-intensive tasks by incorporating external knowledge retrieval. However, existing RAG frameworks primarily rely on semantic similarity and correlation-driven retrieval, limiting their ability to distinguish true causal relationships from spurious associations. This results in responses that may be factually grounded but fail to establish cause-and-effect mechanisms, leading to incomplete or misleading insights. To address this issue, we introduce Causal Dynamic Feedback for Adaptive Retrieval-Augmented Generation (CDF-RAG), a framework designed to improve causal consistency, factual accuracy, and explainability in generative reasoning. CDF-RAG iteratively refines queries, retrieves structured causal graphs, and enables multi-hop causal reasoning across interconnected knowledge sources. Additionally, it validates responses against causal pathways, ensuring logically coherent and factually grounded outputs. We evaluate CDF-RAG on four diverse datasets, demonstrating its ability to improve response accuracy and causal correctness over existing RAG-based methods. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/ elakhatibi/CDF-RAG.

Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) have emerged as a powerful framework for solving partial differential equations (PDEs). However, standard MLP-based PINNs often fail to converge when dealing with complex initial value problems, leading to solutions that violate causality and suffer from a spectral bias towards low-frequency components. To address these issues, we introduce NeuSA (Neuro-Spectral Architectures), a novel class of PINNs inspired by classical spectral methods, designed to solve linear and nonlinear PDEs with variable coefficients. NeuSA learns a projection of the underlying PDE onto a spectral basis, leading to a finite-dimensional representation of the dynamics which is then integrated with an adapted Neural ODE (NODE). This allows us to overcome spectral bias, by leveraging the high-frequency components enabled by the spectral representation; to enforce causality, by inheriting the causal structure of NODEs, and to start training near the target solution, by means of an initialization scheme based on classical methods. We validate NeuSA on canonical benchmarks for linear and nonlinear wave equations, demonstrating strong performance as compared to other architectures, with faster convergence, improved temporal consistency and superior predictive accuracy. Code and pretrained models are available in https://github.com/arthur-bizzi/neusa.

Deploying robots in human-shared environments requires a deep understanding of how nearby agents and objects interact. Employing causal inference to model cause-and-effect relationships facilitates the prediction of human behaviours and enables the anticipation of robot interventions. However, a significant challenge arises due to the absence of implementation of existing causal discovery methods within the ROS ecosystem, the standard de-facto framework in robotics, hindering effective utilisation on real robots. To bridge this gap, in our previous work we proposed ROS-Causal, a ROS-based framework designed for onboard data collection and causal discovery in human-robot spatial interactions. In this work, we present an experimental evaluation of ROS-Causal both in simulation and on a new dataset of human-robot spatial interactions in a lab scenario, to assess its performance and effectiveness. Our analysis demonstrates the efficacy of this approach, showcasing how causal models can be extracted directly onboard by robots during data collection. The online causal models generated from the simulation are consistent with those from lab experiments. These findings can help researchers to enhance the performance of robotic systems in shared environments, firstly by studying the causal relations between variables in simulation without real people, and then facilitating the actual robot deployment in real human environments. ROS-Causal: https://lcastri.github.io/roscausal

Learning causal graphs from multivariate time series is a ubiquitous challenge in all application domains dealing with time-dependent systems, such as in Earth sciences, biology, or engineering, to name a few. Recent developments for this causal discovery learning task have shown considerable skill, notably the specific time-series adaptations of the popular conditional independence-based learning framework. However, uncertainty estimation is challenging for conditional independence-based methods. Here, we introduce a novel bootstrap approach designed for time series causal discovery that preserves the temporal dependencies and lag structure. It can be combined with a range of time series causal discovery methods and provides a measure of confidence for the links of the time series graphs. Furthermore, next to confidence estimation, an aggregation, also called bagging, of the bootstrapped graphs by majority voting results in bagged causal discovery methods. In this work, we combine this approach with the state-of-the-art conditional-independence-based algorithm PCMCI+. With extensive numerical experiments we empirically demonstrate that, in addition to providing confidence measures for links, Bagged-PCMCI+ improves in precision and recall as compared to its base algorithm PCMCI+, at the cost of higher computational demands. These statistical performance improvements are especially pronounced in the more challenging settings (short time sample size, large number of variables, high autocorrelation). Our bootstrap approach can also be combined with other time series causal discovery algorithms and can be of considerable use in many real-world applications.

Causal Discovery plays a pivotal role in revealing relationships among observed variables, particularly in the temporal setup. While the majority of CD methods rely on synthetic data for evaluation, and recently for training, these fall short in accurately mirroring real-world scenarios; an effect even more evident in temporal data. Generation techniques depending on simplified assumptions on causal structure, effects and time, limit the quality and diversity of the simulated data. In this work, we introduce Temporal Causal-based Simulation (TCS), a robust framework for generating realistic time-series data and their associated temporal causal graphs. The approach is structured in three phases: estimating the true lagged causal structure of the data, approximating the functional dependencies between variables and learning the noise distribution of the corresponding causal model, each part of which can be explicitly tailored based on data assumptions and characteristics. Through an extensive evaluation process, we highlight that single detection methods for generated data discrimination prove inadequate, accentuating it as a multifaceted challenge. For this, we detail a Min-max optimization phase that draws on AutoML techniques. Our contributions include a flexible, model-agnostic pipeline for generating realistic temporal causal data, a thorough evaluation setup which enhances the validity of the generated datasets and insights into the challenges posed by realistic data generation. Through experiments involving not only real but also semi-synthetic and purely synthetic datasets, we demonstrate that while sampling realistic causal data remains a complex task, our method enriches the domain of generating sensible causal-based temporal data.

Recent Large Vision Language Models (LVLMs) present remarkable zero-shot conversational and reasoning capabilities given multimodal queries. Nevertheless, they suffer from object hallucination, a phenomenon where LVLMs are prone to generate textual responses not factually aligned with image inputs. Our pilot study reveals that object hallucination is closely tied with Rotary Position Encoding (RoPE), a widely adopted positional dependency modeling design in existing LVLMs. Due to the long-term decay in RoPE, LVLMs tend to hallucinate more when relevant visual cues are distant from instruction tokens in the multimodal input sequence. Additionally, we observe a similar effect when reversing the sequential order of visual tokens during multimodal alignment. Our tests indicate that long-term decay in RoPE poses challenges to LVLMs while capturing visual-instruction interactions across long distances. We propose Concentric Causal Attention (CCA), a simple yet effective positional alignment strategy that mitigates the impact of RoPE long-term decay in LVLMs by naturally reducing relative distance between visual and instruction tokens. With CCA, visual tokens can better interact with instruction tokens, thereby enhancing model's perception capability and alleviating object hallucination. Without bells and whistles, our positional alignment method surpasses existing hallucination mitigation strategies by large margins on multiple object hallucination benchmarks.

Large neural models are increasingly deployed in high-stakes settings, raising concerns about whether their behavior reliably aligns with human values. Interpretability provides a route to internal transparency by revealing the computations that drive outputs. We argue that interpretability especially mechanistic approaches should be treated as a design principle for alignment, not an auxiliary diagnostic tool. Post-hoc methods such as LIME or SHAP offer intuitive but correlational explanations, while mechanistic techniques like circuit tracing or activation patching yield causal insight into internal failures, including deceptive or misaligned reasoning that behavioral methods like RLHF, red teaming, or Constitutional AI may overlook. Despite these advantages, interpretability faces challenges of scalability, epistemic uncertainty, and mismatches between learned representations and human concepts. Our position is that progress on safe and trustworthy AI will depend on making interpretability a first-class objective of AI research and development, ensuring that systems are not only effective but also auditable, transparent, and aligned with human intent.

Most of the existing multi-modal models, hindered by their incapacity to adeptly manage interleaved image-and-text inputs in multi-image, multi-round dialogues, face substantial constraints in resource allocation for training and data accessibility, impacting their adaptability and scalability across varied interaction realms. To address this, we present the DeepSpeed-VisualChat framework, designed to optimize Large Language Models (LLMs) by incorporating multi-modal capabilities, with a focus on enhancing the proficiency of Large Vision and Language Models in handling interleaved inputs. Our framework is notable for (1) its open-source support for multi-round and multi-image dialogues, (2) introducing an innovative multi-modal causal attention mechanism, and (3) utilizing data blending techniques on existing datasets to assure seamless interactions in multi-round, multi-image conversations. Compared to existing frameworks, DeepSpeed-VisualChat shows superior scalability up to 70B parameter language model size, representing a significant advancement in multi-modal language models and setting a solid foundation for future explorations.

The significant advancements of Large Language Models (LLMs) in generative tasks have led to a growing body of work exploring LLM-based embedding models. While these models, employing different pooling and attention strategies, have achieved state-of-the-art performance on public embedding benchmarks, questions still arise about what constitutes an effective design for LLM-based embedding models. However, these models are often trained on different datasets, using different LLM base models or training settings. Moreover, evaluations on public embedding benchmarks often fail to report statistical significance, making it difficult to determine which designs truly contribute to final performance. This complicates the process for practitioners seeking optimal training recipes for LLM-based embedding models. In this study, we conduct a large-scale experiment by training a series of LLM-based embedding models using the same training data and base model but differing in their pooling and attention strategies. The results show that there is no one-size-fits-all solution: while bidirectional attention and an additional trainable pooling layer outperform in text similarity and information retrieval tasks, they do not significantly surpass simpler designs like EOS-last token pooling and default causal attention in clustering and classification tasks. Furthermore, we propose a new pooling strategy, Multi-Layers Trainable Pooling, which transforms the outputs of all hidden layers, rather than just the last layer, using a cross-attention network. This method proves to be statistically superior in text similarity and retrieval tasks compared to existing pooling methods. Overall, this paper sheds light on effective training strategies for LLM-based embedding models.

Understanding narratives requires reasoning about the cause-and-effect relationships between events mentioned in the text. While existing foundation models yield impressive results in many NLP tasks requiring reasoning, it is unclear whether they understand the complexity of the underlying network of causal relationships of events in narratives. In this work, we present CRAB, a new Causal Reasoning Assessment Benchmark designed to evaluate causal understanding of events in real-world narratives. CRAB contains fine-grained, contextual causality annotations for ~2.7K pairs of real-world events that describe various newsworthy event timelines (e.g., the acquisition of Twitter by Elon Musk). Using CRAB, we measure the performance of several large language models, demonstrating that most systems achieve poor performance on the task. Motivated by classical causal principles, we also analyze the causal structures of groups of events in CRAB, and find that models perform worse on causal reasoning when events are derived from complex causal structures compared to simple linear causal chains. We make our dataset and code available to the research community.

Bytes form the basis of the digital world and thus are a promising building block for multimodal foundation models. Recently, Byte Language Models (BLMs) have emerged to overcome tokenization, yet the excessive length of bytestreams requires new architectural paradigms. Therefore, we present the Multiscale Byte Language Model (MBLM), a model-agnostic hierarchical decoder stack that allows training with context windows of 5M bytes on single GPU in full model precision. We thoroughly examine MBLM's performance with Transformer and Mamba blocks on both unimodal and multimodal tasks. Our experiments demonstrate that hybrid architectures are efficient in handling extremely long byte sequences during training while achieving near-linear generational efficiency. To the best of our knowledge, we present the first evaluation of BLMs on visual Q\&A tasks and find that, despite serializing images and the absence of an encoder, a MBLM with pure next token prediction can match custom CNN-LSTM architectures with designated classification heads. We show that MBLMs exhibit strong adaptability in integrating diverse data representations, including pixel and image filestream bytes, underlining their potential toward omnimodal foundation models. Source code is publicly available at: https://github.com/ai4sd/multiscale-byte-lm

Text-based causal inference increasingly employs textual data as proxies for unobserved confounders, yet this approach introduces a previously undertheorized source of bias: treatment leakage. Treatment leakage occurs when text intended to capture confounding information also contains signals predictive of treatment status, thereby inducing post-treatment bias in causal estimates. Critically, this problem can arise even when documents precede treatment assignment, as authors may employ future-referencing language that anticipates subsequent interventions. Despite growing recognition of this issue, no systematic methods exist for identifying and mitigating treatment leakage in text-as-confounder applications. This paper addresses this gap through three contributions. First, we provide formal statistical and set-theoretic definitions of treatment leakage that clarify when and why bias occurs. Second, we propose four text distillation methods -- similarity-based passage removal, distant supervision classification, salient feature removal, and iterative nullspace projection -- designed to eliminate treatment-predictive content while preserving confounder information. Third, we validate these methods through simulations using synthetic text and an empirical application examining International Monetary Fund structural adjustment programs and child mortality. Our findings indicate that moderate distillation optimally balances bias reduction against confounder retention, whereas overly stringent approaches degrade estimate precision.

Despite the impressive performance of vision-language models (VLMs) on downstream tasks, their ability to understand and reason about causal relationships in visual inputs remains unclear. Robust causal reasoning is fundamental to solving complex high-level reasoning tasks, yet existing benchmarks often include a mixture of reasoning questions, and VLMs can frequently exploit object recognition and activity identification as shortcuts to arrive at the correct answers, making it challenging to truly assess their causal reasoning abilities. To bridge this gap, we introduce VQA-Causal and VCR-Causal, two new benchmarks specifically designed to isolate and rigorously evaluate VLMs' causal reasoning abilities. Our findings reveal that while VLMs excel in object and activity recognition, they perform poorly on causal reasoning tasks, often only marginally surpassing random guessing. Further analysis suggests that this limitation stems from a severe lack of causal expressions in widely used training datasets, where causal relationships are rarely explicitly conveyed. We additionally explore fine-tuning strategies with hard negative cases, showing that targeted fine-tuning can improve model's causal reasoning while maintaining generalization and downstream performance. Our study highlights a key gap in current VLMs and lays the groundwork for future work on causal understanding.

The escalating complexity of modern software imposes an unsustainable operational burden on Site Reliability Engineering (SRE) teams, demanding AI-driven automation that can emulate expert diagnostic reasoning. Existing solutions, from traditional AI methods to general-purpose multi-agent systems, fall short: they either lack deep causal reasoning or are not tailored for the specialized, investigative workflows unique to SRE. To address this gap, we present OpenDerisk, a specialized, open-source multi-agent framework architected for SRE. OpenDerisk integrates a diagnostic-native collaboration model, a pluggable reasoning engine, a knowledge engine, and a standardized protocol (MCP) to enable specialist agents to collectively solve complex, multi-domain problems. Our comprehensive evaluation demonstrates that OpenDerisk significantly outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in both accuracy and efficiency. This effectiveness is validated by its large-scale production deployment at Ant Group, where it serves over 3,000 daily users across diverse scenarios, confirming its industrial-grade scalability and practical impact. OpenDerisk is open source and available at https://github.com/derisk-ai/OpenDerisk/

Causal analysis plays a foundational role in scientific discovery and reliable decision-making, yet it remains largely inaccessible to domain experts due to its conceptual and algorithmic complexity. This disconnect between causal methodology and practical usability presents a dual challenge: domain experts are unable to leverage recent advances in causal learning, while causal researchers lack broad, real-world deployment to test and refine their methods. To address this, we introduce Causal-Copilot, an autonomous agent that operationalizes expert-level causal analysis within a large language model framework. Causal-Copilot automates the full pipeline of causal analysis for both tabular and time-series data -- including causal discovery, causal inference, algorithm selection, hyperparameter optimization, result interpretation, and generation of actionable insights. It supports interactive refinement through natural language, lowering the barrier for non-specialists while preserving methodological rigor. By integrating over 20 state-of-the-art causal analysis techniques, our system fosters a virtuous cycle -- expanding access to advanced causal methods for domain experts while generating rich, real-world applications that inform and advance causal theory. Empirical evaluations demonstrate that Causal-Copilot achieves superior performance compared to existing baselines, offering a reliable, scalable, and extensible solution that bridges the gap between theoretical sophistication and real-world applicability in causal analysis. A live interactive demo of Causal-Copilot is available at https://causalcopilot.com/.

Extracting causal relationships from observed correlations is a growing area in probabilistic reasoning, originating with the seminal work of Pearl and others from the early 1990s. This paper develops a new, categorically oriented view based on a clear distinction between syntax (string diagrams) and semantics (stochastic matrices), connected via interpretations as structure-preserving functors. A key notion in the identification of causal effects is that of an intervention, whereby a variable is forcefully set to a particular value independent of any prior propensities. We represent the effect of such an intervention as an endofunctor which performs `string diagram surgery' within the syntactic category of string diagrams. This diagram surgery in turn yields a new, interventional distribution via the interpretation functor. While in general there is no way to compute interventional distributions purely from observed data, we show that this is possible in certain special cases using a calculational tool called comb disintegration. We demonstrate the use of this technique on a well-known toy example, where we predict the causal effect of smoking on cancer in the presence of a confounding common cause. After developing this specific example, we show this technique provides simple sufficient conditions for computing interventions which apply to a wide variety of situations considered in the causal inference literature.

We propose a novel machine learning approach for inferring causal variables of a target variable from observations. Our focus is on directly inferring a set of causal factors without requiring full causal graph reconstruction, which is computationally challenging in large-scale systems. The identified causal set consists of all potential regulators of the target variable under experimental settings, enabling efficient regulation when intervention costs and feasibility vary across variables. To achieve this, we train a neural network using supervised learning on simulated data to infer causality. By employing a local-inference strategy, our approach scales with linear complexity in the number of variables, efficiently scaling up to thousands of variables. Empirical results demonstrate superior performance in identifying causal relationships within large-scale gene regulatory networks, outperforming existing methods that emphasize full-graph discovery. We validate our model's generalization capability across out-of-distribution graph structures and generating mechanisms, including gene regulatory networks of E. coli and the human K562 cell line. Implementation codes are available at https://github.com/snu-mllab/Targeted-Cause-Discovery.

Many social and environmental phenomena are associated with macroscopic changes in the built environment, captured by satellite imagery on a global scale and with daily temporal resolution. While widely used for prediction, these images and especially image sequences remain underutilized for causal inference, especially in the context of randomized controlled trials (RCTs), where causal identification is established by design. In this paper, we develop and compare a set of general tools for analyzing Conditional Average Treatment Effects (CATEs) from temporal satellite data that can be applied to any RCT where geographical identifiers are available. Through a simulation study, we analyze different modeling strategies for estimating CATE in sequences of satellite images. We find that image sequence representation models with more parameters generally yield a greater ability to detect heterogeneity. To explore the role of model and data choice in practice, we apply the approaches to two influential RCTs -- Banerjee et al. (2015), a poverty study in Cusco, Peru, and Bolsen et al. (2014), a water conservation experiment in Georgia, USA. We benchmark our image sequence models against image-only, tabular-only, and combined image-tabular data sources, summarizing practical implications for investigators in a multivariate analysis. Land cover classifications over satellite images facilitate interpretation of what image features drive heterogeneity. We also show robustness to data and model choice of satellite-based generalization of the RCT results to larger geographical areas outside the original. Overall, this paper shows how satellite sequence data can be incorporated into the analysis of RCTs, and provides evidence about the implications of data, model, and evaluation metric choice for causal analysis.

Observational studies of causal effects require adjustment for confounding factors. In the tabular setting, where these factors are well-defined, separate random variables, the effect of confounding is well understood. However, in public policy, ecology, and in medicine, decisions are often made in non-tabular settings, informed by patterns or objects detected in images (e.g., maps, satellite or tomography imagery). Using such imagery for causal inference presents an opportunity because objects in the image may be related to the treatment and outcome of interest. In these cases, we rely on the images to adjust for confounding but observed data do not directly label the existence of the important objects. Motivated by real-world applications, we formalize this challenge, how it can be handled, and what conditions are sufficient to identify and estimate causal effects. We analyze finite-sample performance using simulation experiments, estimating effects using a propensity adjustment algorithm that employs a machine learning model to estimate the image confounding. Our experiments also examine sensitivity to misspecification of the image pattern mechanism. Finally, we use our methodology to estimate the effects of policy interventions on poverty in African communities from satellite imagery.

In this paper, the causal bandit problem is investigated, in which the objective is to select an optimal sequence of interventions on nodes in a causal graph. It is assumed that the graph is governed by linear structural equations; it is further assumed that both the causal topology and the distribution of interventions are unknown. By exploiting the causal relationships between the nodes whose signals contribute to the reward, interventions are optimized. First, based on the difference between the two types of graph identification errors (false positives and negatives), a causal graph learning method is proposed, which strongly reduces sample complexity relative to the prior art by learning sub-graphs. Under the assumption of Gaussian exogenous inputs and minimum-mean squared error weight estimation, a new uncertainty bound tailored to the causal bandit problem is derived. This uncertainty bound drives an upper confidence bound based intervention selection to optimize the reward. To cope with non-stationary bandits, a sub-graph change detection mechanism is proposed, with high sample efficiency. Numerical results compare the new methodology to existing schemes and show a substantial performance improvement in both stationary and non-stationary settings. Compared to existing approaches, the proposed scheme takes 67% fewer samples to learn the causal structure and achieves an average reward gain of 85%.

Recent work has shown promising results in causal discovery by leveraging interventional data with gradient-based methods, even when the intervened variables are unknown. However, previous work assumes that the correspondence between samples and interventions is known, which is often unrealistic. We envision a scenario with an extensive dataset sampled from multiple intervention distributions and one observation distribution, but where we do not know which distribution originated each sample and how the intervention affected the system, i.e., interventions are entirely latent. We propose a method based on neural networks and variational inference that addresses this scenario by framing it as learning a shared causal graph among an infinite mixture (under a Dirichlet process prior) of intervention structural causal models. Experiments with synthetic and real data show that our approach and its semi-supervised variant are able to discover causal relations in this challenging scenario.

Inferring causal structures from experimentation is a central task in many domains. For example, in biology, recent advances allow us to obtain single-cell expression data under multiple interventions such as drugs or gene knockouts. However, the targets of the interventions are often uncertain or unknown and the number of observations limited. As a result, standard causal discovery methods can no longer be reliably used. To fill this gap, we propose a Bayesian framework (BaCaDI) for discovering and reasoning about the causal structure that underlies data generated under various unknown experimental or interventional conditions. BaCaDI is fully differentiable, which allows us to infer the complex joint posterior over the intervention targets and the causal structure via efficient gradient-based variational inference. In experiments on synthetic causal discovery tasks and simulated gene-expression data, BaCaDI outperforms related methods in identifying causal structures and intervention targets.

Conventional causal discovery methods rely on centralized data, which is inconsistent with the decentralized nature of data in many real-world situations. This discrepancy has motivated the development of federated causal discovery (FCD) approaches. However, existing FCD methods may be limited by their potentially restrictive assumptions of identifiable functional causal models or homogeneous data distributions, narrowing their applicability in diverse scenarios. In this paper, we propose a novel FCD method attempting to accommodate arbitrary causal models and heterogeneous data. We first utilize a surrogate variable corresponding to the client index to account for the data heterogeneity across different clients. We then develop a federated conditional independence test (FCIT) for causal skeleton discovery and establish a federated independent change principle (FICP) to determine causal directions. These approaches involve constructing summary statistics as a proxy of the raw data to protect data privacy. Owing to the nonparametric properties, FCIT and FICP make no assumption about particular functional forms, thereby facilitating the handling of arbitrary causal models. We conduct extensive experiments on synthetic and real datasets to show the efficacy of our method. The code is available at https://github.com/lokali/FedCDH.git.

Curating a large scale medical imaging dataset for machine learning applications is both time consuming and expensive. Balancing the workload between model development, data collection and annotations is difficult for machine learning practitioners, especially under time constraints. Causal analysis is often used in medicine and economics to gain insights about the effects of actions and policies. In this paper we explore the effect of dataset interventions on the output of image classification models. Through a causal approach we investigate the effects of the quantity and type of data we need to incorporate in a dataset to achieve better performance for specific subtasks. The main goal of this paper is to highlight the potential of causal analysis as a tool for resource optimization for developing medical imaging ML applications. We explore this concept with a synthetic dataset and an exemplary use-case for Diabetic Retinopathy image analysis.

Faithful evaluation of language model capabilities is crucial for deriving actionable insights that can inform model development. However, rigorous causal evaluations in this domain face significant methodological challenges, including complex confounding effects and prohibitive computational costs associated with extensive retraining. To tackle these challenges, we propose a causal representation learning framework wherein observed benchmark performance is modeled as a linear transformation of a few latent capability factors. Crucially, these latent factors are identified as causally interrelated after appropriately controlling for the base model as a common confounder. Applying this approach to a comprehensive dataset encompassing over 1500 models evaluated across six benchmarks from the Open LLM Leaderboard, we identify a concise three-node linear causal structure that reliably explains the observed performance variations. Further interpretation of this causal structure provides substantial scientific insights beyond simple numerical rankings: specifically, we reveal a clear causal direction starting from general problem-solving capabilities, advancing through instruction-following proficiency, and culminating in mathematical reasoning ability. Our results underscore the essential role of carefully controlling base model variations during evaluation, a step critical to accurately uncovering the underlying causal relationships among latent model capabilities.

Large reasoning models (LRMs) spend substantial test-time compute on long chain-of-thought (CoT) traces, but what *characterizes* an effective CoT remains unclear. While prior work reports gains from lengthening CoTs and increasing review (revisiting earlier steps) via appended *wait* tokens, recent studies suggest that shorter thinking can outperform longer traces. We therefore conduct a systematic evaluation across ten LRMs on math and scientific reasoning. Contrary to the "longer-is-better" narrative, we find that both naive CoT lengthening and increased review are associated with *lower* accuracy. As CoT unfolds step by step, token-level metrics can conflate verbosity with process quality. We introduce a graph view of CoT to extract structure and identify a single statistic-the *Failed-Step Fraction (FSF)*, the fraction of steps in abandoned branches-that consistently outpredicts length and review ratio for correctness across models. To probe causality, we design two interventions. First, we rank candidate CoTs by each metric at test time, where FSF yields the largest pass@1 gains; second, we edit CoTs to remove failed branches, which significantly improves accuracy, indicating that failed branches bias subsequent reasoning. Taken together, these results characterize effective CoTs as those that *fail less* and support *structure-aware* test-time scaling over indiscriminately generating long CoT.

The technique of data augmentation (DA) is often used in machine learning for regularization purposes to better generalize under i.i.d. settings. In this work, we present a unifying framework with topics in causal inference to make a case for the use of DA beyond just the i.i.d. setting, but for generalization across interventions as well. Specifically, we argue that when the outcome generating mechanism is invariant to our choice of DA, then such augmentations can effectively be thought of as interventions on the treatment generating mechanism itself. This can potentially help to reduce bias in causal effect estimation arising from hidden confounders. In the presence of such unobserved confounding we typically make use of instrumental variables (IVs) -- sources of treatment randomization that are conditionally independent of the outcome. However, IVs may not be as readily available as DA for many applications, which is the main motivation behind this work. By appropriately regularizing IV based estimators, we introduce the concept of IV-like (IVL) regression for mitigating confounding bias and improving predictive performance across interventions even when certain IV properties are relaxed. Finally, we cast parameterized DA as an IVL regression problem and show that when used in composition can simulate a worst-case application of such DA, further improving performance on causal estimation and generalization tasks beyond what simple DA may offer. This is shown both theoretically for the population case and via simulation experiments for the finite sample case using a simple linear example. We also present real data experiments to support our case.

Discovering causal structures from data is a challenging inference problem of fundamental importance in all areas of science. The appealing properties of neural networks have recently led to a surge of interest in differentiable neural network-based methods for learning causal structures from data. So far, differentiable causal discovery has focused on static datasets of observational or fixed interventional origin. In this work, we introduce an active intervention targeting (AIT) method which enables a quick identification of the underlying causal structure of the data-generating process. Our method significantly reduces the required number of interactions compared with random intervention targeting and is applicable for both discrete and continuous optimization formulations of learning the underlying directed acyclic graph (DAG) from data. We examine the proposed method across multiple frameworks in a wide range of settings and demonstrate superior performance on multiple benchmarks from simulated to real-world data.

For text-based AI systems to interact in the real world, causal reasoning is an essential skill. Since interventional data is costly to generate, we study to what extent an agent can learn causal reasoning from passive data. Specifically, we consider an axiomatic training setup where an agent learns from multiple demonstrations of a causal axiom (or rule), rather than incorporating the axiom as an inductive bias or inferring it from data values. A key question is whether the agent would learn to generalize from the axiom demonstrations to new scenarios. For example, if a transformer model is trained on demonstrations of the causal transitivity axiom over small graphs, would it generalize to applying the transitivity axiom over large graphs? Our results, based on a novel axiomatic training scheme, indicate that such generalization is possible. We consider the task of inferring whether a variable causes another variable, given a causal graph structure. We find that a 67 million parameter transformer model, when trained on linear causal chains (along with some noisy variations) can generalize well to new kinds of graphs, including longer causal chains, causal chains with reversed order, and graphs with branching; even when it is not explicitly trained for such settings. Our model performs at par (or even better) than many larger language models such as GPT-4, Gemini Pro, and Phi-3. Overall, our axiomatic training framework provides a new paradigm of learning causal reasoning from passive data that can be used to learn arbitrary axioms, as long as sufficient demonstrations can be generated.

We explore algorithms to select actions in the causal bandit setting where the learner can choose to intervene on a set of random variables related by a causal graph, and the learner sequentially chooses interventions and observes a sample from the interventional distribution. The learner's goal is to quickly find the intervention, among all interventions on observable variables, that maximizes the expectation of an outcome variable. We depart from previous literature by assuming no knowledge of the causal graph except that latent confounders between the outcome and its ancestors are not present. We first show that the unknown graph problem can be exponentially hard in the parents of the outcome. To remedy this, we adopt an additional additive assumption on the outcome which allows us to solve the problem by casting it as an additive combinatorial linear bandit problem with full-bandit feedback. We propose a novel action-elimination algorithm for this setting, show how to apply this algorithm to the causal bandit problem, provide sample complexity bounds, and empirically validate our findings on a suite of randomly generated causal models, effectively showing that one does not need to explicitly learn the parents of the outcome to identify the best intervention.

Transformer has achieved remarkable success in language, image, and speech processing. Recently, various efficient attention architectures have been proposed to improve transformer's efficiency while largely preserving its efficacy, especially in modeling long sequences. A widely-used benchmark to test these efficient methods' capability on long-range modeling is Long Range Arena (LRA). However, LRA only focuses on the standard bidirectional (or noncausal) self attention, and completely ignores cross attentions and unidirectional (or causal) attentions, which are equally important to downstream applications. Although designing cross and causal variants of an attention method is straightforward for vanilla attention, it is often challenging for efficient attentions with subquadratic time and memory complexity. In this paper, we propose Comprehensive Attention Benchmark (CAB) under a fine-grained attention taxonomy with four distinguishable attention patterns, namely, noncausal self, causal self, noncausal cross, and causal cross attentions. CAB collects seven real-world tasks from different research areas to evaluate efficient attentions under the four attention patterns. Among these tasks, CAB validates efficient attentions in eight backbone networks to show their generalization across neural architectures. We conduct exhaustive experiments to benchmark the performances of nine widely-used efficient attention architectures designed with different philosophies on CAB. Extensive experimental results also shed light on the fundamental problems of efficient attentions, such as efficiency length against vanilla attention, performance consistency across attention patterns, the benefit of attention mechanisms, and interpolation/extrapolation on long-context language modeling.

Causal inference is essential for data-driven decision making across domains such as business engagement, medical treatment and policy making. However, research on causal discovery has evolved separately from inference methods, preventing straight-forward combination of methods from both fields. In this work, we develop Deep End-to-end Causal Inference (DECI), a single flow-based non-linear additive noise model that takes in observational data and can perform both causal discovery and inference, including conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimation. We provide a theoretical guarantee that DECI can recover the ground truth causal graph under standard causal discovery assumptions. Motivated by application impact, we extend this model to heterogeneous, mixed-type data with missing values, allowing for both continuous and discrete treatment decisions. Our results show the competitive performance of DECI when compared to relevant baselines for both causal discovery and (C)ATE estimation in over a thousand experiments on both synthetic datasets and causal machine learning benchmarks across data-types and levels of missingness.

Flow models are effective at progressively generating realistic images, but they generally struggle to capture long-range dependencies during the generation process as they compress all the information from previous time steps into a single corrupted image. To address this limitation, we propose integrating autoregressive modeling -- known for its excellence in modeling complex, high-dimensional joint probability distributions -- into flow models. During training, at each step, we construct causally-ordered sequences by sampling multiple images from the same semantic category and applying different levels of noise, where images with higher noise levels serve as causal predecessors to those with lower noise levels. This design enables the model to learn broader category-level variations while maintaining proper causal relationships in the flow process. During generation, the model autoregressively conditions the previously generated images from earlier denoising steps, forming a contextual and coherent generation trajectory. Additionally, we design a customized hybrid linear attention mechanism tailored to our modeling approach to enhance computational efficiency. Our approach, termed ARFlow, under 400k training steps, achieves 14.08 FID scores on ImageNet at 128 * 128 without classifier-free guidance, reaching 4.34 FID with classifier-free guidance 1.5, significantly outperforming the previous flow-based model SiT's 9.17 FID. Extensive ablation studies demonstrate the effectiveness of our modeling strategy and chunk-wise attention design.

Recent advances in generative medical models are constrained by modality-specific scenarios that hinder the integration of complementary evidence from imaging, pathology, and clinical notes. This fragmentation limits their evolution into foundation models that can learn and reason across the full spectrum of biomedical data. We propose MeDiM, the first medical discrete diffusion model that learns shared distributions across modalities without modality-specific components. MeDiM unifies multiple generative tasks: translating between images and text, and jointly producing image-report pairs across domains in response to prompts. Built on a discrete diffusion framework, MeDiM bridges vision and language representations through a shared probabilistic space. To enable unified and flexible medical generation, we employ a multimodal large language model (MLLM) as the diffusion backbone, leveraging its prior knowledge and cross-modal reasoning. Two key designs are introduced: (1) removing the causal attention mask for bidirectional context, and (2) injecting continuous timestep embeddings for diffusion awareness. Experiments demonstrate high-fidelity medical generation (FID 16.60 on MIMIC-CXR and FID 24.19 on PathGen) and accurate report generation (METEOR 0.2650 and 0.2580). Jointly generated image-report pairs further enhance downstream performance (plus6.43 percent BLEU-1, plus18.57 percent BLEU-2, plus31.58 percent BLEU-3, plus4.80 percent METEOR), showing that MeDiM supports coherent and clinically grounded multimodal outputs.

We present a new probing dataset named PROST: Physical Reasoning about Objects Through Space and Time. This dataset contains 18,736 multiple-choice questions made from 14 manually curated templates, covering 10 physical reasoning concepts. All questions are designed to probe both causal and masked language models in a zero-shot setting. We conduct an extensive analysis which demonstrates that state-of-the-art pretrained models are inadequate at physical reasoning: they are influenced by the order in which answer options are presented to them, they struggle when the superlative in a question is inverted (e.g., most <-> least), and increasing the amount of pretraining data and parameters only yields minimal improvements. These results provide support for the hypothesis that current pretrained models' ability to reason about physical interactions is inherently limited by a lack of real world experience. By highlighting these limitations, we hope to motivate the development of models with a human-like understanding of the physical world.

Diffusion models (DMs) have achieved remarkable success in image and video generation. However, they still struggle with (1) physical alignment and (2) out-of-distribution (OOD) instruction following. We argue that these issues stem from the models' failure to learn causal directions and to disentangle causal factors for novel recombination. We introduce the Causal Scene Graph (CSG) and the Physical Alignment Probe (PAP) dataset to enable diagnostic interventions. This analysis yields three key insights. First, DMs struggle with multi-hop reasoning for elements not explicitly determined in the prompt. Second, the prompt embedding contains disentangled representations for texture and physics. Third, visual causal structure is disproportionately established during the initial, computationally limited denoising steps. Based on these findings, we introduce LINA (Learning INterventions Adaptively), a novel framework that learns to predict prompt-specific interventions, which employs (1) targeted guidance in the prompt and visual latent spaces, and (2) a reallocated, causality-aware denoising schedule. Our approach enforces both physical alignment and OOD instruction following in image and video DMs, achieving state-of-the-art performance on challenging causal generation tasks and the Winoground dataset. Our project page is at https://opencausalab.github.io/LINA.

A faithful and interpretable explanation of an AI model's behavior and internal structure is a high-level explanation that is human-intelligible but also consistent with the known, but often opaque low-level causal details of the model. We argue that the theory of causal abstraction provides the mathematical foundations for the desired kinds of model explanations. In causal abstraction analysis, we use interventions on model-internal states to rigorously assess whether an interpretable high-level causal model is a faithful description of an AI model. Our contributions in this area are: (1) We generalize causal abstraction to cyclic causal structures and typed high-level variables. (2) We show how multi-source interchange interventions can be used to conduct causal abstraction analyses. (3) We define a notion of approximate causal abstraction that allows us to assess the degree to which a high-level causal model is a causal abstraction of a lower-level one. (4) We prove constructive causal abstraction can be decomposed into three operations we refer to as marginalization, variable-merge, and value-merge. (5) We formalize the XAI methods of LIME, causal effect estimation, causal mediation analysis, iterated nullspace projection, and circuit-based explanations as special cases of causal abstraction analysis.

Autoregressive models (ARMs) are hindered by slow sequential inference. While masked diffusion models (MDMs) offer a parallel alternative, they suffer from critical drawbacks: high computational overhead from precluding Key-Value (KV) caching, and incoherent generation arising from learning dependencies over an intractable space of token combinations. To address these limitations, we introduce ReFusion, a novel masked diffusion model that achieves superior performance and efficiency by elevating parallel decoding from the token level to a higher slot level, where each slot is a fixed-length, contiguous sub-sequence. This is achieved through an iterative ``plan-and-infill'' decoding process: a diffusion-based planning step first identifies a set of weakly dependent slots, and an autoregressive infilling step then decodes these selected slots in parallel. The slot-based design simultaneously unlocks full KV cache reuse with a unified causal framework and reduces the learning complexity from the token combination space to a manageable slot-level permutation space. Extensive experiments on seven diverse benchmarks show that ReFusion not only overwhelmingly surpasses prior MDMs with 34% performance gains and an over 18times speedup on average, but also bridges the performance gap to strong ARMs while maintaining a 2.33times average speedup.

Perceiving and reconstructing 4D spatial-temporal geometry from videos is a fundamental yet challenging computer vision task. To facilitate interactive and real-time applications, we propose a streaming 4D visual geometry transformer that shares a similar philosophy with autoregressive large language models. We explore a simple and efficient design and employ a causal transformer architecture to process the input sequence in an online manner. We use temporal causal attention and cache the historical keys and values as implicit memory to enable efficient streaming long-term 4D reconstruction. This design can handle real-time 4D reconstruction by incrementally integrating historical information while maintaining high-quality spatial consistency. For efficient training, we propose to distill knowledge from the dense bidirectional visual geometry grounded transformer (VGGT) to our causal model. For inference, our model supports the migration of optimized efficient attention operator (e.g., FlashAttention) from the field of large language models. Extensive experiments on various 4D geometry perception benchmarks demonstrate that our model increases the inference speed in online scenarios while maintaining competitive performance, paving the way for scalable and interactive 4D vision systems. Code is available at: https://github.com/wzzheng/StreamVGGT.

The cold-start initialization stage plays a pivotal role in training Multimodal Large Reasoning Models (MLRMs), yet its mechanisms remain insufficiently understood. To analyze this stage, we introduce the Visual Attention Score (VAS), an attention-based metric that quantifies how much a model attends to visual tokens. We find that reasoning performance is strongly correlated with VAS (r=0.9616): models with higher VAS achieve substantially stronger multimodal reasoning. Surprisingly, multimodal cold-start fails to elevate VAS, resulting in attention distributions close to the base model, whereas text-only cold-start leads to a clear increase. We term this counter-intuitive phenomenon Lazy Attention Localization. To validate its causal role, we design training-free interventions that directly modulate attention allocation during inference, performance gains of 1-2% without any retraining. Building on these insights, we further propose Attention-Guided Visual Anchoring and Reflection (AVAR), a comprehensive cold-start framework that integrates visual-anchored data synthesis, attention-guided objectives, and visual-anchored reward shaping. Applied to Qwen2.5-VL-7B, AVAR achieves an average gain of 7.0% across 7 multimodal reasoning benchmarks. Ablation studies further confirm that each component of AVAR contributes step-wise to the overall gains. The code, data, and models are available at https://github.com/lrlbbzl/Qwen-AVAR.

Understanding dynamic 4D scenes from an egocentric perspective-modeling changes in 3D spatial structure over time-is crucial for human-machine interaction, autonomous navigation, and embodied intelligence. While existing egocentric datasets contain dynamic scenes, they lack unified 4D annotations and task-driven evaluation protocols for fine-grained spatio-temporal reasoning, especially on motion of objects and human, together with their interactions. To address this gap, we introduce EgoDynamic4D, a novel QA benchmark on highly dynamic scenes, comprising RGB-D video, camera poses, globally unique instance masks, and 4D bounding boxes. We construct 927K QA pairs accompanied by explicit Chain-of-Thought (CoT), enabling verifiable, step-by-step spatio-temporal reasoning. We design 12 dynamic QA tasks covering agent motion, human-object interaction, trajectory prediction, relation understanding, and temporal-causal reasoning, with fine-grained, multidimensional metrics. To tackle these tasks, we propose an end-to-end spatio-temporal reasoning framework that unifies dynamic and static scene information, using instance-aware feature encoding, time and camera encoding, and spatially adaptive down-sampling to compress large 4D scenes into token sequences manageable by LLMs. Experiments on EgoDynamic4D show that our method consistently outperforms baselines, validating the effectiveness of multimodal temporal modeling for egocentric dynamic scene understanding.

We completely discard the conventional spatial prior in image representation and introduce a novel discrete visual tokenizer: Self-consistency Tokenizer (Selftok). At its design core, we compose an autoregressive (AR) prior -- mirroring the causal structure of language -- into visual tokens by using the reverse diffusion process of image generation. The AR property makes Selftok fundamentally distinct from traditional spatial tokens in the following two key ways: - Selftok offers an elegant and minimalist approach to unify diffusion and AR for vision-language models (VLMs): By representing images with Selftok tokens, we can train a VLM using a purely discrete autoregressive architecture -- like that in LLMs -- without requiring additional modules or training objectives. - We theoretically show that the AR prior satisfies the Bellman equation, whereas the spatial prior does not. Therefore, Selftok supports reinforcement learning (RL) for visual generation with effectiveness comparable to that achieved in LLMs. Besides the AR property, Selftok is also a SoTA tokenizer that achieves a favorable trade-off between high-quality reconstruction and compression rate. We use Selftok to build a pure AR VLM for both visual comprehension and generation tasks. Impressively, without using any text-image training pairs, a simple policy gradient RL working in the visual tokens can significantly boost the visual generation benchmark, surpassing all the existing models by a large margin. Therefore, we believe that Selftok effectively addresses the long-standing challenge that visual tokens cannot support effective RL. When combined with the well-established strengths of RL in LLMs, this brings us one step closer to realizing a truly multimodal LLM. Project Page: https://selftok-team.github.io/report/.

A major barrier to deploying current machine learning models lies in their non-reliability to dataset shifts. To resolve this problem, most existing studies attempted to transfer stable information to unseen environments. Particularly, independent causal mechanisms-based methods proposed to remove mutable causal mechanisms via the do-operator. Compared to previous methods, the obtained stable predictors are more effective in identifying stable information. However, a key question remains: which subset of this whole stable information should the model transfer, in order to achieve optimal generalization ability? To answer this question, we present a comprehensive minimax analysis from a causal perspective. Specifically, we first provide a graphical condition for the whole stable set to be optimal. When this condition fails, we surprisingly find with an example that this whole stable set, although can fully exploit stable information, is not the optimal one to transfer. To identify the optimal subset under this case, we propose to estimate the worst-case risk with a novel optimization scheme over the intervention functions on mutable causal mechanisms. We then propose an efficient algorithm to search for the subset with minimal worst-case risk, based on a newly defined equivalence relation between stable subsets. Compared to the exponential cost of exhaustively searching over all subsets, our searching strategy enjoys a polynomial complexity. The effectiveness and efficiency of our methods are demonstrated on synthetic data and the diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease.

Current motion-conditioned video generation methods suffer from prohibitive latency (minutes per video) and non-causal processing that prevents real-time interaction. We present MotionStream, enabling sub-second latency with up to 29 FPS streaming generation on a single GPU. Our approach begins by augmenting a text-to-video model with motion control, which generates high-quality videos that adhere to the global text prompt and local motion guidance, but does not perform inference on the fly. As such, we distill this bidirectional teacher into a causal student through Self Forcing with Distribution Matching Distillation, enabling real-time streaming inference. Several key challenges arise when generating videos of long, potentially infinite time-horizons: (1) bridging the domain gap from training on finite length and extrapolating to infinite horizons, (2) sustaining high quality by preventing error accumulation, and (3) maintaining fast inference, without incurring growth in computational cost due to increasing context windows. A key to our approach is introducing carefully designed sliding-window causal attention, combined with attention sinks. By incorporating self-rollout with attention sinks and KV cache rolling during training, we properly simulate inference-time extrapolations with a fixed context window, enabling constant-speed generation of arbitrarily long videos. Our models achieve state-of-the-art results in motion following and video quality while being two orders of magnitude faster, uniquely enabling infinite-length streaming. With MotionStream, users can paint trajectories, control cameras, or transfer motion, and see results unfold in real-time, delivering a truly interactive experience.

The comic production industry requires reference-based line art colorization with high accuracy, efficiency, contextual consistency, and flexible control. A comic page often involves diverse characters, objects, and backgrounds, which complicates the coloring process. Despite advancements in diffusion models for image generation, their application in line art colorization remains limited, facing challenges related to handling extensive reference images, time-consuming inference, and flexible control. We investigate the necessity of extensive contextual image guidance on the quality of line art colorization. To address these challenges, we introduce Cobra, an efficient and versatile method that supports color hints and utilizes over 200 reference images while maintaining low latency. Central to Cobra is a Causal Sparse DiT architecture, which leverages specially designed positional encodings, causal sparse attention, and Key-Value Cache to effectively manage long-context references and ensure color identity consistency. Results demonstrate that Cobra achieves accurate line art colorization through extensive contextual reference, significantly enhancing inference speed and interactivity, thereby meeting critical industrial demands. We release our codes and models on our project page: https://zhuang2002.github.io/Cobra/.

Tokenizer, serving as a translator to map the intricate visual data into a compact latent space, lies at the core of visual generative models. Based on the finding that existing tokenizers are tailored to image or video inputs, this paper presents OmniTokenizer, a transformer-based tokenizer for joint image and video tokenization. OmniTokenizer is designed with a spatial-temporal decoupled architecture, which integrates window and causal attention for spatial and temporal modeling. To exploit the complementary nature of image and video data, we further propose a progressive training strategy, where OmniTokenizer is first trained on image data on a fixed resolution to develop the spatial encoding capacity and then jointly trained on image and video data on multiple resolutions to learn the temporal dynamics. OmniTokenizer, for the first time, handles both image and video inputs within a unified framework and proves the possibility of realizing their synergy. Extensive experiments demonstrate that OmniTokenizer achieves state-of-the-art (SOTA) reconstruction performance on various image and video datasets, e.g., 1.11 reconstruction FID on ImageNet and 42 reconstruction FVD on UCF-101, beating the previous SOTA methods by 13% and 26%, respectively. Additionally, we also show that when integrated with OmniTokenizer, both language model-based approaches and diffusion models can realize advanced visual synthesis performance, underscoring the superiority and versatility of our method. Code is available at https://github.com/FoundationVision/OmniTokenizer.

Causal inference is a critical task across fields such as healthcare, economics, and the social sciences. While recent advances in machine learning, especially those based on the deep-learning architectures, have shown potential in estimating causal effects, existing approaches often fall short in handling complex causal structures and lack adaptability across various causal scenarios. In this paper, we present a novel transformer-based method for causal inference that overcomes these challenges. The core innovation of our model lies in its integration of causal Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) directly into the attention mechanism, enabling it to accurately model the underlying causal structure. This allows for flexible estimation of both average treatment effects (ATE) and conditional average treatment effects (CATE). Extensive experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that our approach surpasses existing methods in estimating causal effects across a wide range of scenarios. The flexibility and robustness of our model make it a valuable tool for researchers and practitioners tackling complex causal inference problems.

Counterfactual reasoning is widely recognized as one of the most challenging and intricate aspects of causality in artificial intelligence. In this paper, we evaluate the performance of large language models (LLMs) in counterfactual reasoning. In contrast to previous studies that primarily focus on commonsense causal reasoning, where LLMs often rely on prior knowledge for inference, we specifically assess their ability to perform counterfactual inference using a set of formal rules. To support this evaluation, we introduce a new benchmark dataset, CounterBench, comprising 1K counterfactual reasoning questions. The dataset is designed with varying levels of difficulty, diverse causal graph structures, distinct types of counterfactual questions, and multiple nonsensical name variants. Our experiments demonstrate that counterfactual reasoning poses a significant challenge for LLMs, with most models performing at levels comparable to random guessing. To enhance LLM's counterfactual reasoning ability, we propose a novel reasoning paradigm, CoIn, which guides LLMs through iterative reasoning and backtracking to systematically explore counterfactual solutions. Experimental results show that our method significantly improves LLM performance on counterfactual reasoning tasks and consistently enhances performance across different LLMs.Our dataset is available at https://huggingface.co/datasets/CounterBench/CounterBench.

Despite remarkable advances in the field, LLMs remain unreliable in distinguishing causation from correlation. Recent results from the Corr2Cause dataset benchmark reveal that state-of-the-art LLMs -- such as GPT-4 (F1 score: 29.08) -- only marginally outperform random baselines (Random Uniform, F1 score: 20.38), indicating limited capacity of generalization. To tackle this limitation, we propose a novel structured approach: rather than directly answering causal queries, we provide the model with the capability to structure its thinking by guiding the model to build a structured knowledge graph, systematically encoding the provided correlational premises, to answer the causal queries. This intermediate representation significantly enhances the model's causal capabilities. Experiments on the test subset of the Corr2Cause dataset benchmark with Qwen3-32B model (reasoning model) show substantial gains over standard direct prompting methods, improving F1 scores from 32.71 to 48.26 (over 47.5% relative increase), along with notable improvements in precision and recall. These results underscore the effectiveness of providing the model with the capability to structure its thinking and highlight its promising potential for broader generalization across diverse causal inference tasks.

The great success of Large Language Models (LLMs) has expanded the potential of multimodality, contributing to the gradual evolution of General Artificial Intelligence (AGI). A true AGI agent should not only possess the capability to perform predefined multi-tasks but also exhibit emergent abilities in an open-world context. However, despite the considerable advancements made by recent multimodal LLMs, they still fall short in effectively unifying comprehension and generation tasks, let alone open-world emergent abilities. We contend that the key to overcoming the present impasse lies in enabling text and images to be represented and processed interchangeably within a unified autoregressive Transformer. To this end, we introduce SEED, an elaborate image tokenizer that empowers LLMs with the ability to SEE and Draw at the same time. We identify two crucial design principles: (1) Image tokens should be independent of 2D physical patch positions and instead be produced with a 1D causal dependency, exhibiting intrinsic interdependence that aligns with the left-to-right autoregressive prediction mechanism in LLMs. (2) Image tokens should capture high-level semantics consistent with the degree of semantic abstraction in words, and be optimized for both discriminativeness and reconstruction during the tokenizer training phase. With SEED tokens, LLM is able to perform scalable multimodal autoregression under its original training recipe, i.e., next-word prediction. SEED-LLaMA is therefore produced by large-scale pretraining and instruction tuning on the interleaved textual and visual data, demonstrating impressive performance on a broad range of multimodal comprehension and generation tasks. More importantly, SEED-LLaMA has exhibited compositional emergent abilities such as multi-turn in-context multimodal generation, acting like your AI assistant.

The rapid evolution of large language models (LLMs) has expanded their capabilities from basic dialogue to advanced scientific reasoning. However, existing benchmarks in biology often fail to assess a critical skill required of researchers: the ability to integrate experimental results with contextual knowledge to derive meaningful conclusions. To address this gap, we introduce BABE(Biology Arena BEnchmark), a comprehensive benchmark designed to evaluate the experimental reasoning capabilities of biological AI systems. BABE is uniquely constructed from peer-reviewed research papers and real-world biological studies, ensuring that tasks reflect the complexity and interdisciplinary nature of actual scientific inquiry. BABE challenges models to perform causal reasoning and cross-scale inference. Our benchmark provides a robust framework for assessing how well AI systems can reason like practicing scientists, offering a more authentic measure of their potential to contribute to biological research.

Masked diffusion language models (MDLMs) have recently emerged as a promising alternative to autoregressive (AR) language models, offering properties such as parallel decoding, flexible generation orders, and the potential for fewer inference steps. Despite these advantages, decoding strategies and reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms tailored for MDLMs remain underexplored. A naive approach is to directly transfer techniques well-established for AR models to MDLMs. However, this raises an immediate question: Is such a naive transfer truly optimal? For example, 1) Block-wise and semi-AR decoding strategies are not employed during the training of MDLMs, so why do they outperform full diffusion-style decoding during inference? 2) Applying RL algorithms designed for AR models directly to MDLMs exhibits a training-inference inconsistency, since MDLM decoding are non-causal (parallel). This results in inconsistencies between the rollout trajectory and the optimization trajectory. To address these challenges, we propose EOS Early Rejection (EOSER) and Ascending Step-Size (ASS) decoding scheduler, which unlock the potential of MDLMs to perform full diffusion-style decoding, achieving competitive performance with fewer decoding steps. Additionally, we introduce Consistency Trajectory Group Relative Policy Optimization (CJ-GRPO) for taming MDLMs, which emphasizes the consistency between rollout trajectory and optimization trajectory, and reduces the optimization errors caused by skip-step optimization. We conduct extensive experiments on reasoning tasks, such as mathematical and planning benchmarks, using LLaDA-8B-Instruct. The results demonstrate that the proposed EOSER and ASS mechanisms, together with CJ-GRPO, hold significant promise for effectively and efficiently taming MDLMs. Code: https://github.com/yjyddq/EOSER-ASS-RL.

Visual reasoning is critical for a wide range of computer vision tasks that go beyond surface-level object detection and classification. Despite notable advances in relational, symbolic, temporal, causal, and commonsense reasoning, existing surveys often address these directions in isolation, lacking a unified analysis and comparison across reasoning types, methodologies, and evaluation protocols. This survey aims to address this gap by categorizing visual reasoning into five major types (relational, symbolic, temporal, causal, and commonsense) and systematically examining their implementation through architectures such as graph-based models, memory networks, attention mechanisms, and neuro-symbolic systems. We review evaluation protocols designed to assess functional correctness, structural consistency, and causal validity, and critically analyze their limitations in terms of generalizability, reproducibility, and explanatory power. Beyond evaluation, we identify key open challenges in visual reasoning, including scalability to complex scenes, deeper integration of symbolic and neural paradigms, the lack of comprehensive benchmark datasets, and reasoning under weak supervision. Finally, we outline a forward-looking research agenda for next-generation vision systems, emphasizing that bridging perception and reasoning is essential for building transparent, trustworthy, and cross-domain adaptive AI systems, particularly in critical domains such as autonomous driving and medical diagnostics.

We show that there is a general, informative and reliable procedure for discovering causal relations when, for all the investigator knows, both latent variables and selection bias may be at work. Given information about conditional independence and dependence relations between measured variables, even when latent variables and selection bias may be present, there are sufficient conditions for reliably concluding that there is a causal path from one variable to another, and sufficient conditions for reliably concluding when no such causal path exists.

Autoregressive Large Language Models (AR-LLMs) frequently exhibit implicit parallelism in sequential generation. Inspired by this, we introduce Multiverse, a new generative model that enables natively parallel generation. Multiverse internalizes a MapReduce paradigm, generating automatically through three stages: (i) a Map stage for adaptive task decomposition, (ii) a Process stage for parallel subtask execution, and (iii) a Reduce stage for lossless result synthesis. Next, we build a real-world Multiverse reasoning model with co-design of data, algorithm, and system, enabling rapid and seamless transfer from frontier AR-LLMs. Starting from sequential reasoning chains, we create Multiverse 1K by converting them into structured training data using an automated LLM-assisted pipeline, avoiding costly human annotations. Algorithmically, we design Multiverse Attention to separate parallel reasoning steps while keeping compatibility with causal attention for efficient training. Systematically, we implement Multiverse Engine to enable parallel inference. It features a dedicated scheduler that dynamically switches between sequential and parallel generation, triggered directly by the model. After a 3-hour fine-tuning with 1K examples, our Multiverse-32B stands as the only open-sourced non-AR model achieving performance on par with leading AR-LLMs of the same scale, evidenced by AIME24 & 25 scores of 54% and 46%, respectively. Moreover, our budget control experiments show that Multiverse-32B exhibits superior scaling, outperforming AR-LLMs by 1.87% on average using the same context length. Such scaling further leads to practical efficiency gain, achieving up to 2x speedup across varying batch sizes. We have open-sourced the entire Multiverse ecosystem, including data, model weights, engine, supporting tools, as well as complete data curation prompts and detailed training and evaluation recipes.

Large language models (LLMs) excel at generation but dominant autoregressive (AR) decoding is inherently sequential, creating a throughput bottleneck. Diffusion Language Models (DLMs)--especially block-wise variants--enable parallel generation and intra-block bidirectional reasoning, yet training large DLMs from scratch is costly and wastes the knowledge in mature AR checkpoints. Prior "adaptation" attempts either modify logits or randomly grow attention masks to full-sequence diffusion, or simply transplant AR weights into a block-diffusion recipe, leaving a fundamental mismatch between AR causality and block-wise bidirectionality unaddressed. We reframe adaptation as a intra-paradigm path from AR to Block-Diffusion by viewing AR as Block-Diffusion with blocksize=1. Concretely, we design the pathway of adaptation as follows: we use a context-causal attention mask (causal in context, bidirectional only within the active block), an efficient parallel adaptation procedure, an auxiliary AR loss to maximize data utilization and retain pretrained knowledge, and gradual increment of the generation block size. The recipe integrates cleanly with masked block-diffusion and maintains train-inference consistency. Built on these components, NBDiff-7B (Base and Instruct) could inherit the long-context modeling and reasoning capabilities, and achieve state-of-the-art performance among the 7B-class DLMs, delivering strong gains on general-knowledge, math, and code benchmarks over strong baselines. These results demonstrate that principled AR-to-block-diffusion adaptation is an effective and compute-efficient alternative to training DLMs from scratch. Codes: https://github.com/YuchuanTian/NBDiff.

Despite their impressive capabilities, LLMs exhibit a basic generalization failure known as the Reversal Curse, where they struggle to learn reversible factual associations. Understanding why this occurs could help identify weaknesses in current models and advance their generalization and robustness. In this paper, we conjecture that the Reversal Curse in LLMs is a manifestation of the long-standing binding problem in cognitive science, neuroscience and AI. Specifically, we identify two primary causes of the Reversal Curse stemming from transformers' limitations in conceptual binding: the inconsistency and entanglements of concept representations. We perform a series of experiments that support these conjectures. Our exploration leads to a model design based on JEPA (Joint-Embedding Predictive Architecture) that for the first time breaks the Reversal Curse without side-stepping it with specialized data augmentation or non-causal masking, and moreover, generalization could be further improved by incorporating special memory layers that support disentangled concept representations. We demonstrate that the skill of reversal unlocks a new kind of memory integration that enables models to solve large-scale arithmetic reasoning problems via parametric forward-chaining, outperforming frontier LLMs based on non-parametric memory and prolonged explicit reasoning.

Existing methodologies for animating portrait images face significant challenges, particularly in handling non-frontal perspectives, rendering dynamic objects around the portrait, and generating immersive, realistic backgrounds. In this paper, we introduce the first application of a pretrained transformer-based video generative model that demonstrates strong generalization capabilities and generates highly dynamic, realistic videos for portrait animation, effectively addressing these challenges. The adoption of a new video backbone model makes previous U-Net-based methods for identity maintenance, audio conditioning, and video extrapolation inapplicable. To address this limitation, we design an identity reference network consisting of a causal 3D VAE combined with a stacked series of transformer layers, ensuring consistent facial identity across video sequences. Additionally, we investigate various speech audio conditioning and motion frame mechanisms to enable the generation of continuous video driven by speech audio. Our method is validated through experiments on benchmark and newly proposed wild datasets, demonstrating substantial improvements over prior methods in generating realistic portraits characterized by diverse orientations within dynamic and immersive scenes. Further visualizations and the source code are available at: https://fudan-generative-vision.github.io/hallo3/.