Daily Papers

We propose an algorithm for change point monitoring in linear causal models that accounts for interventions. Through a special centralization technique, we can concentrate the changes arising from causal propagation across nodes into a single dimension. Additionally, by selecting appropriate intervention nodes based on Kullback-Leibler divergence, we can amplify the change magnitude. We also present an algorithm for selecting the intervention values, which aids in the identification of the most effective intervention nodes. Two monitoring methods are proposed, each with an adaptive intervention policy to make a balance between exploration and exploitation. We theoretically demonstrate the first-order optimality of the proposed methods and validate their properties using simulation datasets and two real-world case studies.

Moments when a time series changes its behaviour are called change points. Detection of such points is a well-known problem, which can be found in many applications: quality monitoring of industrial processes, failure detection in complex systems, health monitoring, speech recognition and video analysis. Occurrence of change point implies that the state of the system is altered and its timely detection might help to prevent unwanted consequences. In this paper, we present two online change-point detection approaches based on neural networks. These algorithms demonstrate linear computational complexity and are suitable for change-point detection in large time series. We compare them with the best known algorithms on various synthetic and real world data sets. Experiments show that the proposed methods outperform known approaches.

Remote sensing change detection aims to localize and characterize scene changes between two time points and is central to applications such as environmental monitoring and disaster assessment. Meanwhile, visual autoregressive models (VARs) have recently shown impressive image generation capability, but their adoption for pixel-level discriminative tasks remains limited due to weak controllability, suboptimal dense prediction performance and exposure bias. We introduce RemoteVAR, a new VAR-based change detection framework that addresses these limitations by conditioning autoregressive prediction on multi-resolution fused bi-temporal features via cross-attention, and by employing an autoregressive training strategy designed specifically for change map prediction. Extensive experiments on standard change detection benchmarks show that RemoteVAR delivers consistent and significant improvements over strong diffusion-based and transformer-based baselines, establishing a competitive autoregressive alternative for remote sensing change detection. Code will be available https://github.com/yilmazkorkmaz1/RemoteVAR{here}.

Changepoints are abrupt variations in the generative parameters of a data sequence. Online detection of changepoints is useful in modelling and prediction of time series in application areas such as finance, biometrics, and robotics. While frequentist methods have yielded online filtering and prediction techniques, most Bayesian papers have focused on the retrospective segmentation problem. Here we examine the case where the model parameters before and after the changepoint are independent and we derive an online algorithm for exact inference of the most recent changepoint. We compute the probability distribution of the length of the current ``run,'' or time since the last changepoint, using a simple message-passing algorithm. Our implementation is highly modular so that the algorithm may be applied to a variety of types of data. We illustrate this modularity by demonstrating the algorithm on three different real-world data sets.

Automated analysis of complex systems based on multiple readouts remains a challenge. Change point detection algorithms are aimed to locating abrupt changes in the time series behaviour of a process. In this paper, we present a novel change point detection algorithm based on Latent Neural Stochastic Differential Equations (SDE). Our method learns a non-linear deep learning transformation of the process into a latent space and estimates a SDE that describes its evolution over time. The algorithm uses the likelihood ratio of the learned stochastic processes in different timestamps to find change points of the process. We demonstrate the detection capabilities and performance of our algorithm on synthetic and real-world datasets. The proposed method outperforms the state-of-the-art algorithms on the majority of our experiments.

The goal of the change-point detection is to discover changes of time series distribution. One of the state of the art approaches of the change-point detection are based on direct density ratio estimation. In this work we show how existing algorithms can be generalized using various binary classification and regression models. In particular, we show that the Gradient Boosting over Decision Trees and Neural Networks can be used for this purpose. The algorithms are tested on several synthetic and real-world datasets. The results show that the proposed methods outperform classical RuLSIF algorithm. Discussion of cases where the proposed algorithms have advantages over existing methods are also provided.

Data drift is the change in model input data that is one of the key factors leading to machine learning models performance degradation over time. Monitoring drift helps detecting these issues and preventing their harmful consequences. Meaningful drift interpretation is a fundamental step towards effective re-training of the model. In this study we propose an end-to-end framework for reliable model-agnostic change-point detection and interpretation in large task-oriented dialog systems, proven effective in multiple customer deployments. We evaluate our approach and demonstrate its benefits with a novel variant of intent classification training dataset, simulating customer requests to a dialog system. We make the data publicly available.

This paper proposes an online, provably robust, and scalable Bayesian approach for changepoint detection. The resulting algorithm has key advantages over previous work: it provides provable robustness by leveraging the generalised Bayesian perspective, and also addresses the scalability issues of previous attempts. Specifically, the proposed generalised Bayesian formalism leads to conjugate posteriors whose parameters are available in closed form by leveraging diffusion score matching. The resulting algorithm is exact, can be updated through simple algebra, and is more than 10 times faster than its closest competitor.

Identifying travelers' transportation modes is important in transportation science and location-based services. It's appealing for researchers to leverage GPS trajectory data to infer transportation modes with the popularity of GPS-enabled devices, e.g., smart phones. Existing studies frame this problem as classification task. The dominant two-stage studies divide the trip into single-one mode segments first and then categorize these segments. The over segmentation strategy and inevitable error propagation bring difficulties to classification stage and make optimizing the whole system hard. The recent one-stage works throw out trajectory segmentation entirely to avoid these by directly conducting point-wise classification for the trip, whereas leaving predictions dis-continuous. To solve above-mentioned problems, inspired by YOLO and SSD in object detection, we propose to reframe change point detection and segment classification as a unified regression task instead of the existing classification task. We directly regress coordinates of change points and classify associated segments. In this way, our method divides the trip into segments under a supervised manner and leverage more contextual information, obtaining predictions with high accuracy and continuity. Two frameworks, TrajYOLO and TrajSSD, are proposed to solve the regression task and various feature extraction backbones are exploited. Exhaustive experiments on GeoLife dataset show that the proposed method has competitive overall identification accuracy of 0.853 when distinguishing five modes: walk, bike, bus, car, train. As for change point detection, our method increases precision at the cost of drop in recall. All codes are available at https://github.com/RadetzkyLi/TrajYOLO-SSD.

In the face of pressing environmental issues in the 21st century, monitoring surface changes on Earth is more important than ever. Large-scale remote sensing, such as satellite imagery, is an important tool for this task. However, using supervised methods to detect changes is difficult because of the lack of satellite data annotated with change labels, especially for rare categories of change. Annotation proves challenging due to the sparse occurrence of changes in satellite images. Even within a vast collection of images, only a small fraction may exhibit persistent changes of interest. To address this challenge, we introduce OPTIMUS, a self-supervised learning method based on an intuitive principle: if a model can recover information about the relative order of images in the time series, then that implies that there are long-lasting changes in the images. OPTIMUS demonstrates this principle by using change point detection methods on model outputs in a time series. We demonstrate that OPTIMUS can directly detect interesting changes in satellite images, achieving an improvement in AUROC score from 56.3% to 87.6% at distinguishing changed time series from unchanged ones compared to baselines. Our code and dataset are available at https://huggingface.co/datasets/optimus-change/optimus-dataset/.

We develop a novel, general and computationally efficient framework, called Divide and Conquer Dynamic Programming (DCDP), for localizing change points in time series data with high-dimensional features. DCDP deploys a class of greedy algorithms that are applicable to a broad variety of high-dimensional statistical models and can enjoy almost linear computational complexity. We investigate the performance of DCDP in three commonly studied change point settings in high dimensions: the mean model, the Gaussian graphical model, and the linear regression model. In all three cases, we derive non-asymptotic bounds for the accuracy of the DCDP change point estimators. We demonstrate that the DCDP procedures consistently estimate the change points with sharp, and in some cases, optimal rates while incurring significantly smaller computational costs than the best available algorithms. Our findings are supported by extensive numerical experiments on both synthetic and real data.

Change detection is an important tool for long-term earth observation missions. It takes bi-temporal images as input and predicts "where" the change has occurred. Different from other dense prediction tasks, a meaningful consideration for change detection is the interaction between bi-temporal features. With this motivation, in this paper we propose a novel general change detection architecture, MetaChanger, which includes a series of alternative interaction layers in the feature extractor. To verify the effectiveness of MetaChanger, we propose two derived models, ChangerAD and ChangerEx with simple interaction strategies: Aggregation-Distribution (AD) and "exchange". AD is abstracted from some complex interaction methods, and "exchange" is a completely parameter\&computation-free operation by exchanging bi-temporal features. In addition, for better alignment of bi-temporal features, we propose a flow dual-alignment fusion (FDAF) module which allows interactive alignment and feature fusion. Crucially, we observe Changer series models achieve competitive performance on different scale change detection datasets. Further, our proposed ChangerAD and ChangerEx could serve as a starting baseline for future MetaChanger design.

The realization that complex systems such as ecological communities can collapse or shift regimes suddenly and without rapid external forcing poses a serious challenge to our understanding and management of the natural world. The potential to identify early warning signals that would allow researchers and managers to predict such events before they happen has therefore been an invaluable discovery that offers a way forward in spite of such seemingly unpredictable behavior. Research into early warning signals has demonstrated that it is possible to define and detect such early warning signals in advance of a transition in certain contexts. Here we describe the pattern emerging as research continues to explore just how far we can generalize these results. A core of examples emerges that shares three properties: the phenomenon of rapid regime shifts, a pattern of 'critical slowing down' that can be used to detect the approaching shift, and a mechanism of bifurcation driving the sudden change. As research has expanded beyond these core examples, it is becoming clear that not all systems that show regime shifts exhibit critical slowing down, or vice versa. Even when systems exhibit critical slowing down, statistical detection is a challenge. We review the literature that explores these edge cases and highlight the need for (a) new early warning behaviors that can be used in cases where rapid shifts do not exhibit critical slowing down, (b) the development of methods to identify which behavior might be an appropriate signal when encountering a novel system; bearing in mind that a positive indication for some systems is a negative indication in others, and (c) statistical methods that can distinguish between signatures of early warning behaviors and noise.

Change detection (CD) is fundamental to computer vision and remote sensing, supporting applications in environmental monitoring, disaster response, and urban development. Most CD models assume co-registered inputs, yet real-world imagery often exhibits parallax, viewpoint shifts, and long temporal gaps that cause severe misalignment. Traditional two stage methods that first register and then detect, as well as recent joint frameworks (e.g., BiFA, ChangeRD), still struggle under large displacements, relying on regression only flow, global homographies, or synthetic perturbations. We present DiffRegCD, an integrated framework that unifies dense registration and change detection in a single model. DiffRegCD reformulates correspondence estimation as a Gaussian smoothed classification task, achieving sub-pixel accuracy and stable training. It leverages frozen multi-scale features from a pretrained denoising diffusion model, ensuring robustness to illumination and viewpoint variation. Supervision is provided through controlled affine perturbations applied to standard CD datasets, yielding paired ground truth for both flow and change detection without pseudo labels. Extensive experiments on aerial (LEVIR-CD, DSIFN-CD, WHU-CD, SYSU-CD) and ground level (VL-CMU-CD) datasets show that DiffRegCD consistently surpasses recent baselines and remains reliable under wide temporal and geometric variation, establishing diffusion features and classification based correspondence as a strong foundation for unified change detection.

Catastrophic regime shifts in complex natural systems may be averted through advanced detection. Recent work has provided a proof-of-principle that many systems approaching a catastrophic transition may be identified through the lens of early warning indicators such as rising variance or increased return times. Despite widespread appreciation of the difficulties and uncertainty involved in such forecasts, proposed methods hardly ever characterize their expected error rates. Without the benefits of replicates, controls, or hindsight, applications of these approaches must quantify how reliable different indicators are in avoiding false alarms, and how sensitive they are to missing subtle warning signs. We propose a model based approach in order to quantify this trade-off between reliability and sensitivity and allow comparisons between different indicators. We show these error rates can be quite severe for common indicators even under favorable assumptions, and also illustrate how a model-based indicator can improve this performance. We demonstrate how the performance of an early warning indicator varies in different data sets, and suggest that uncertainty quantification become a more central part of early warning predictions.

Detecting changes between images is a fundamental problem in computer vision with broad applications in situational awareness, infrastructure assessment, environment monitoring, and industrial automation. Existing supervised models are typically limited to detecting specific types of changes, necessitating retraining for new tasks. To address these limitations with a single approach, we propose a novel change detection method that is the first to utilize unaligned images and textual prompts to output a binary segmentation of changes relevant to user-provided text. Our architecture not only enables flexible detection across diverse change detection use cases, but also yields state-of-the art performance on established benchmarks. Additionally, we release an accompanying dataset comprising of 100,311 pairs of images with text prompts and the corresponding change detection labels. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method both quantitatively and qualitatively on datasets with a wide variety of viewpoints in indoor, outdoor, street level, synthetic, and satellite images.

We consider offline reinforcement learning (RL) methods in possibly nonstationary environments. Many existing RL algorithms in the literature rely on the stationarity assumption that requires the system transition and the reward function to be constant over time. However, the stationarity assumption is restrictive in practice and is likely to be violated in a number of applications, including traffic signal control, robotics and mobile health. In this paper, we develop a consistent procedure to test the nonstationarity of the optimal Q-function based on pre-collected historical data, without additional online data collection. Based on the proposed test, we further develop a sequential change point detection method that can be naturally coupled with existing state-of-the-art RL methods for policy optimization in nonstationary environments. The usefulness of our method is illustrated by theoretical results, simulation studies, and a real data example from the 2018 Intern Health Study. A Python implementation of the proposed procedure is available at https://github.com/limengbinggz/CUSUM-RL.

Remote sensing change detection is vital for monitoring environmental and urban transformations but faces challenges like manual feature extraction and sensitivity to noise. Traditional methods and early deep learning models, such as convolutional neural networks (CNNs), struggle to capture long-range dependencies and global context essential for accurate change detection in complex scenes. While Transformer-based models mitigate these issues, their computational complexity limits their applicability in high-resolution remote sensing. Building upon ChangeMamba architecture, which leverages state space models for efficient global context modeling, this paper proposes precision fusion blocks to capture channel-wise temporal variations and per-pixel differences for fine-grained change detection. An enhanced decoder pipeline, incorporating lightweight channel reduction mechanisms, preserves local details with minimal computational cost. Additionally, an optimized loss function combining Cross Entropy, Dice and Lovasz objectives addresses class imbalance and boosts Intersection-over-Union (IoU). Evaluations on SYSU-CD, LEVIR-CD+, and WHU-CD datasets demonstrate superior precision, recall, F1 score, IoU, and overall accuracy compared to state-of-the-art methods, highlighting the approach's robustness for remote sensing change detection. For complete transparency, the codes and pretrained models are accessible at https://github.com/Buddhi19/MambaCD.git

We consider the problem of learning in a non-stationary reinforcement learning (RL) environment, where the setting can be fully described by a piecewise stationary discrete-time Markov decision process (MDP). We introduce a variant of the Restarted Bayesian Online Change-Point Detection algorithm (R-BOCPD) that operates on input streams originating from the more general multinomial distribution and provides near-optimal theoretical guarantees in terms of false-alarm rate and detection delay. Based on this, we propose an improved version of the UCRL2 algorithm for MDPs with state transition kernel sampled from a multinomial distribution, which we call R-BOCPD-UCRL2. We perform a finite-time performance analysis and show that R-BOCPD-UCRL2 enjoys a favorable regret bound of Oleft(D O A T K_T logleft (frac{T{delta} right) + K_T log frac{K_T{delta}}{minlimits_ell : KLleft( {theta^{(ell+1)}}midmathbf{theta^{(ell)}}right)}}right), where D is the largest MDP diameter from the set of MDPs defining the piecewise stationary MDP setting, O is the finite number of states (constant over all changes), A is the finite number of actions (constant over all changes), K_T is the number of change points up to horizon T, and theta^{(ell)} is the transition kernel during the interval [c_ell, c_{ell+1}), which we assume to be multinomially distributed over the set of states O. Interestingly, the performance bound does not directly scale with the variation in MDP state transition distributions and rewards, ie. can also model abrupt changes. In practice, R-BOCPD-UCRL2 outperforms the state-of-the-art in a variety of scenarios in synthetic environments. We provide a detailed experimental setup along with a code repository (upon publication) that can be used to easily reproduce our experiments.

Sharp, multidimensional changepoints-abrupt shifts in a regression surface whose locations and magnitudes are unknown-arise in settings as varied as gene-expression profiling, financial covariance breaks, climate-regime detection, and urban socioeconomic mapping. Despite their prevalence, there are no current approaches that jointly estimate the location and size of the discontinuity set in a one-shot approach with statistical guarantees. We therefore introduce Free Discontinuity Regression (FDR), a fully nonparametric estimator that simultaneously (i) smooths a regression surface, (ii) segments it into contiguous regions, and (iii) provably recovers the precise locations and sizes of its jumps. By extending a convex relaxation of the Mumford-Shah functional to random spatial sampling and correlated noise, FDR overcomes the fixed-grid and i.i.d. noise assumptions of classical image-segmentation approaches, thus enabling its application to real-world data of any dimension. This yields the first identification and uniform consistency results for multivariate jump surfaces: under mild SBV regularity, the estimated function, its discontinuity set, and all jump sizes converge to their true population counterparts. Hyperparameters are selected automatically from the data using Stein's Unbiased Risk Estimate, and large-scale simulations up to three dimensions validate the theoretical results and demonstrate good finite-sample performance. Applying FDR to an internet shutdown in India reveals a 25-35% reduction in economic activity around the estimated shutdown boundaries-much larger than previous estimates. By unifying smoothing, segmentation, and effect-size recovery in a general statistical setting, FDR turns free-discontinuity ideas into a practical tool with formal guarantees for modern multivariate data.

Earth observation is a fundamental tool for monitoring the evolution of land use in specific areas of interest. Observing and precisely defining change, in this context, requires both time-series data and pixel-wise segmentations. To that end, we propose the DynamicEarthNet dataset that consists of daily, multi-spectral satellite observations of 75 selected areas of interest distributed over the globe with imagery from Planet Labs. These observations are paired with pixel-wise monthly semantic segmentation labels of 7 land use and land cover (LULC) classes. DynamicEarthNet is the first dataset that provides this unique combination of daily measurements and high-quality labels. In our experiments, we compare several established baselines that either utilize the daily observations as additional training data (semi-supervised learning) or multiple observations at once (spatio-temporal learning) as a point of reference for future research. Finally, we propose a new evaluation metric SCS that addresses the specific challenges associated with time-series semantic change segmentation. The data is available at: https://mediatum.ub.tum.de/1650201.

Detecting object-level changes between two images across possibly different views is a core task in many applications that involve visual inspection or camera surveillance. Existing change-detection approaches suffer from three major limitations: (1) lack of evaluation on image pairs that contain no changes, leading to unreported false positive rates; (2) lack of correspondences (i.e., localizing the regions before and after a change); and (3) poor zero-shot generalization across different domains. To address these issues, we introduce a novel method that leverages change correspondences (a) during training to improve change detection accuracy, and (b) at test time, to minimize false positives. That is, we harness the supervision labels of where an object is added or removed to supervise change detectors, improving their accuracy over previous work by a large margin. Our work is also the first to predict correspondences between pairs of detected changes using estimated homography and the Hungarian algorithm. Our model demonstrates superior performance over existing methods, achieving state-of-the-art results in change detection and change correspondence accuracy across both in-distribution and zero-shot benchmarks.

Change detection in remote sensing imagery is essential for applications such as urban planning, environmental monitoring, and disaster management. Traditional change detection methods typically identify all changes between two temporal images without distinguishing the types of transitions, which can lead to results that may not align with specific user needs. Although semantic change detection methods have attempted to address this by categorizing changes into predefined classes, these methods rely on rigid class definitions and fixed model architectures, making it difficult to mix datasets with different label sets or reuse models across tasks, as the output channels are tightly coupled with the number and type of semantic classes. To overcome these limitations, we introduce Referring Change Detection (RCD), which leverages natural language prompts to detect specific classes of changes in remote sensing images. By integrating language understanding with visual analysis, our approach allows users to specify the exact type of change they are interested in. However, training models for RCD is challenging due to the limited availability of annotated data and severe class imbalance in existing datasets. To address this, we propose a two-stage framework consisting of (I) RCDNet, a cross-modal fusion network designed for referring change detection, and (II) RCDGen, a diffusion-based synthetic data generation pipeline that produces realistic post-change images and change maps for a specified category using only pre-change image, without relying on semantic segmentation masks and thereby significantly lowering the barrier to scalable data creation. Experiments across multiple datasets show that our framework enables scalable and targeted change detection. Project website is here: https://yilmazkorkmaz1.github.io/RCD.

Change detection, a prominent research area in remote sensing, is pivotal in observing and analyzing surface transformations. Despite significant advancements achieved through deep learning-based methods, executing high-precision change detection in spatio-temporally complex remote sensing scenarios still presents a substantial challenge. The recent emergence of foundation models, with their powerful universality and generalization capabilities, offers potential solutions. However, bridging the gap of data and tasks remains a significant obstacle. In this paper, we introduce Time Travelling Pixels (TTP), a novel approach that integrates the latent knowledge of the SAM foundation model into change detection. This method effectively addresses the domain shift in general knowledge transfer and the challenge of expressing homogeneous and heterogeneous characteristics of multi-temporal images. The state-of-the-art results obtained on the LEVIR-CD underscore the efficacy of the TTP. The Code is available at https://kychen.me/TTP.

Computer-use agents provide a promising path toward general software automation because they can interact directly with arbitrary graphical user interfaces instead of relying on brittle, application-specific integrations. Despite recent advances in benchmark performance, strong computer-use agents remain expensive and slow in practice, since most systems invoke large multimodal models at nearly every interaction step. We argue that this uniform allocation of compute is fundamentally inefficient for long-horizon GUI tasks. Such trajectories are highly heterogeneous: many steps are routine and can be handled reliably by smaller, cheaper policies, while errors tend to concentrate at a relatively small number of high-risk moments. Across computer-use benchmarks, these failures repeatedly take two forms: progress stalls, where the agent loops, repeats ineffective actions, or fails to make meaningful progress, and silent semantic drift, where the agent continues taking locally plausible actions after already deviating from the user's true goal. To address this inefficiency, we propose an event-driven, step-level cascade for computer-use agents that runs a small policy by default and escalates to a stronger model only when lightweight learned monitors detect elevated risk. Our framework combines two complementary signals: a Stuck Monitor that detects degraded progress from recent reasoning-action history and triggers recovery, and a Milestone Monitor that identifies semantically meaningful checkpoints where sparse verification is most informative for catching drift. This design turns always-on frontier-model inference into adaptive, on-demand compute allocation over the course of an evolving interaction. The framework is modular and deployment-oriented: it can be layered on top of existing computer-use agents without changing the underlying agent architecture or retraining the large model.

Visual foundation models have achieved remarkable results in zero-shot image classification and segmentation, but zero-shot change detection remains an open problem. In this paper, we propose the segment any change models (AnyChange), a new type of change detection model that supports zero-shot prediction and generalization on unseen change types and data distributions. AnyChange is built on the segment anything model (SAM) via our training-free adaptation method, bitemporal latent matching. By revealing and exploiting intra-image and inter-image semantic similarities in SAM's latent space, bitemporal latent matching endows SAM with zero-shot change detection capabilities in a training-free way. We also propose a point query mechanism to enable AnyChange's zero-shot object-centric change detection capability. We perform extensive experiments to confirm the effectiveness of AnyChange for zero-shot change detection. AnyChange sets a new record on the SECOND benchmark for unsupervised change detection, exceeding the previous SOTA by up to 4.4% F_1 score, and achieving comparable accuracy with negligible manual annotations (1 pixel per image) for supervised change detection.

Automated progress monitoring on construction sites is an active area of research and development. Robot and human-carried mapping systems have been developed to build 3D maps of building and infrastructure projects. While LiDAR-based mapping systems achieve high accuracy, the cost of LiDAR can be prohibitive. Consumer-grade cameras with wide field of view ("360 cameras") combined with embedded inertial measurement units (IMUs) provide a cost-effective alternative. To support change detection and progress monitoring, highly accurate visual Simultaneous Localization and Mapping (SLAM) and floor plan-referenced localization systems are required. In this paper we present a high-quality dataset collected at an active construction site, which captures realistic challenges such as variable lighting conditions, moving workers, fast motions, and repetitive structures. The dataset offers thirty visual-inertial sequences recorded across seven floors over an eight-month period of the construction project. Ground truth trajectories were collected using a high quality LiDAR-inertial SLAM system rigidly attached to the 360 camera. Additionally, we report the results of an open research challenge evaluating the best visual SLAM and localization systems from around the world. The Challenge attracted substantially higher participation in SLAM, with 62 teams compared to 22 in floor-plan-referenced localization, reflecting the broader maturity of SLAM methods. The higher errors in localization further highlight the difficulty of this task in construction and point to the need for continued research, which this dataset is intended to support. The dataset and the benchmark are publicly available at: https://hilti-trimble-challenge.com/dataset-2026.

Accurate, up-to-date High-Definition (HD) maps are critical for urban planning, infrastructure monitoring, and autonomous navigation. However, these maps quickly become outdated as environments evolve, creating a need for robust methods that not only detect changes but also incorporate them into updated 3D representations. While change detection techniques have advanced significantly, there remains a clear gap between detecting changes and actually updating 3D maps, particularly when relying on 2D image-based change detection. To address this gap, we introduce SceneEdited, the first city-scale dataset explicitly designed to support research on HD map maintenance through 3D point cloud updating. SceneEdited contains over 800 up-to-date scenes covering 73 km of driving and approximate 3 km^2 of urban area, with more than 23,000 synthesized object changes created both manually and automatically across 2000+ out-of-date versions, simulating realistic urban modifications such as missing roadside infrastructure, buildings, overpasses, and utility poles. Each scene includes calibrated RGB images, LiDAR scans, and detailed change masks for training and evaluation. We also provide baseline methods using a foundational image-based structure-from-motion pipeline for updating outdated scenes, as well as a comprehensive toolkit supporting scalability, trackability, and portability for future dataset expansion and unification of out-of-date object annotations. Both the dataset and the toolkit are publicly available at https://github.com/ChadLin9596/ScenePoint-ETK, establising a standardized benchmark for 3D map updating research.

Change detection in remote sensing imagery is a critical technique for Earth observation, primarily focusing on pixel-level segmentation of change regions between bi-temporal images. The essence of pixel-level change detection lies in determining whether corresponding pixels in bi-temporal images have changed. In deep learning, the spatial and channel dimensions of feature maps represent different information from the original images. In this study, we found that in change detection tasks, difference information can be computed not only from the spatial dimension of bi-temporal features but also from the channel dimension. Therefore, we designed the Channel-Spatial Difference Weighting (CSDW) module as an aggregation-distribution mechanism for bi-temporal features in change detection. This module enhances the sensitivity of the change detection model to difference features. Additionally, bi-temporal images share the same geographic location and exhibit strong inter-image correlations. To construct the correlation between bi-temporal images, we designed a decoding structure based on the Layer-Exchange (LE) method to enhance the interaction of bi-temporal features. Comprehensive experiments on the CLCD, PX-CLCD, LEVIR-CD, and S2Looking datasets demonstrate that the proposed LENet model significantly improves change detection performance. The code and pre-trained models will be available at: https://github.com/dyzy41/lenet.

Remote sensing change detection aims to localize semantic changes between images of the same location captured at different times. In the past few years, newer methods have attributed enhanced performance to the additions of new and complex components to existing architectures. Most fail to measure the performance contribution of fundamental design choices such as backbone selection, pre-training strategies, and training configurations. We claim that such fundamental design choices often improve performance even more significantly than the addition of new architectural components. Due to that, we systematically revisit the design space of change detection models and analyse the full potential of a well-optimised baseline. We identify a set of fundamental design choices that benefit both new and existing architectures. Leveraging this insight, we demonstrate that when carefully designed, even an architecturally simple model can match or surpass state-of-the-art performance on six challenging change detection datasets. Our best practices generalise beyond our architecture and also offer performance improvements when applied to related methods, indicating that the space of fundamental design choices has been underexplored. Our guidelines and architecture provide a strong foundation for future methods, emphasizing that optimizing core components is just as important as architectural novelty in advancing change detection performance. Code: https://github.com/blaz-r/BTC-change-detection

Despite the emergence of diffusion large language models (D-LLMs) as an alternative to autoregressive large language models (AR-LLMs), safety monitoring for D-LLMs remains largely unexplored. Unlike AR-LLMs, D-LLMs generate text through a multi-step denoising process, exposing intermediate hidden representations that may contain safety-relevant information unavailable in standard single-step monitoring setups. Motivated by the suitability of lightweight probes for always-on monitoring, we analyze which trajectory-level signals best indicate when such probes are likely to struggle. We find that the most informative signal is safety hesitation: intermediate hidden states repeatedly falling within a small margin of the probe's decision boundary. The number of such hesitation steps in D-LLM's trajectory predicts probe failure effectively, providing a proxy of sample difficulty. Building on this analysis, we propose D^2-Monitor, a bi-level safety monitor for D-LLMs. D^2-Monitor adopts a lightweight probe as an always-on monitor to jointly estimate hesitation and perform base classification. When the hesitation level exceeds a threshold, a more expressive but computationally heavier probe is activated. This dynamic routing mechanism allocates monitoring resources efficiently at test time. Evaluated on 3 datasets (WildguardMix, ToxicChat, OpenAI-Moderation) across 4 D-LLMs, D^2-Monitor achieves state-of-the-art performance with a compact parameter footprint (leq 0.85M parameters), and exhibits the best trade-off between effectiveness and efficiency relative to 8 baselines.

AI agents are increasingly asked to carry out work that spans minutes, hours, or longer. Yet the default model of agent behavior is continuous action: issuing tool calls, refreshing pages, searching for alternatives, or otherwise trying to force progress. This is the wrong approach for many long-running tasks, which are better served by a strategy of sustained attention. Instead, agents should monitor an environment, notice when an external event makes progress possible, then respond promptly without wasting resources while waiting. To measure progress on this class of tasks, we introduce SentinelBench, an open-source benchmark for time-evolving monitoring tasks. SentinelBench contains 100 tasks across 10 synthetic web environments, including email, calendars, finance, professional networking, and entertainment. Each environment exposes a live web interface and replays a scripted sequence of events, requiring agents to navigate and reason about web pages whose state shifts underfoot. SentinelBench measures task completion, reaction time, and resource use, exposing the tradeoff between responsiveness and cost. We report results across three models and two browser-agent harnesses, establishing performance baselines for future comparison and demonstrating how agent design choices can dramatically impact key metrics. Together, these results show that SentinelBench distinguishes meaningful differences in agent behavior.

We investigate the problem of identifying objects that have been added, removed, or moved between a pair of captures (images or videos) of the same scene at different times. Detecting such changes is important for many applications, such as robotic tidying or construction progress and safety monitoring. A major challenge is that varying viewpoints can cause objects to falsely appear changed. We introduce SceneDiff Benchmark, the first multiview change detection benchmark with object instance annotations, comprising 350 diverse video pairs with thousands of changed objects. We also introduce the SceneDiff method, a new training-free approach for multiview object change detection that leverages pretrained 3D, segmentation, and image encoding models to robustly predict across multiple benchmarks. Our method aligns the captures in 3D, extracts object regions, and compares spatial and semantic region features to detect changes. Experiments on multi-view and two-view benchmarks demonstrate that our method outperforms existing approaches by large margins (94% and 37.4% relative AP improvements). The benchmark and code will be publicly released.

Urban transformations have profound societal impact on both individuals and communities at large. Accurately assessing these shifts is essential for understanding their underlying causes and ensuring sustainable urban planning. Traditional measurements often encounter constraints in spatial and temporal granularity, failing to capture real-time physical changes. While street view imagery, capturing the heartbeat of urban spaces from a pedestrian point of view, can add as a high-definition, up-to-date, and on-the-ground visual proxy of urban change. We curate the largest street view time series dataset to date, and propose an end-to-end change detection model to effectively capture physical alterations in the built environment at scale. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed method by benchmark comparisons with previous literature and implementing it at the city-wide level. Our approach has the potential to supplement existing dataset and serve as a fine-grained and accurate assessment of urban change.

Despite their frequent use for change detection, both ConvNets and Vision transformers (ViT) exhibit well-known limitations, namely the former struggle to model long-range dependencies while the latter are computationally inefficient, rendering them challenging to train on large-scale datasets. Vision Mamba, an architecture based on State Space Models has emerged as an alternative addressing the aforementioned deficiencies and has been already applied to remote sensing change detection, though mostly as a feature extracting backbone. In this article the Change State Space Model is introduced, that has been specifically designed for change detection by focusing on the relevant changes between bi-temporal images, effectively filtering out irrelevant information. By concentrating solely on the changed features, the number of network parameters is reduced, enhancing significantly computational efficiency while maintaining high detection performance and robustness against input degradation. The proposed model has been evaluated via three benchmark datasets, where it outperformed ConvNets, ViTs, and Mamba-based counterparts at a fraction of their computational complexity. The implementation will be made available at https://github.com/Elman295/CSSM upon acceptance.

We present a novel, training-free approach to scene change detection. Our method leverages tracking models, which inherently perform change detection between consecutive frames of video by identifying common objects and detecting new or missing objects. Specifically, our method takes advantage of the change detection effect of the tracking model by inputting reference and query images instead of consecutive frames. Furthermore, we focus on the content gap and style gap between two input images in change detection, and address both issues by proposing adaptive content threshold and style bridging layers, respectively. Finally, we extend our approach to video, leveraging rich temporal information to enhance the performance of scene change detection. We compare our approach and baseline through various experiments. While existing train-based baseline tend to specialize only in the trained domain, our method shows consistent performance across various domains, proving the competitiveness of our approach.

Natural disaster monitoring through continuous satellite observation requires processing multi-temporal data under strict operational constraints. This paper addresses flood detection, a critical application for hazard management, by developing an onboard change detection system that operates within the memory and computational limits of small satellites. We propose History Injection mechanism for Transformer models (HiT), that maintains historical context from previous observations while reducing data storage by over 99\% of original image size. Moreover, testing on the STTORM-CD flood dataset confirms that the HiT mechanism within the Prithvi-tiny foundation model maintains detection accuracy compared to the bi-temporal baseline. The proposed HiT-Prithvi model achieved 43 FPS on Jetson Orin Nano, a representative onboard hardware used in nanosats. This work establishes a practical framework for satellite-based continuous monitoring of natural disasters, supporting real-time hazard assessment without dependency on ground-based processing infrastructure. Architecture as well as model checkpoints is available at https://github.com/zaitra/HiT-change-detection .

Forecasting multiple future events within a given time horizon is essential for applications in finance, retail, social networks, and healthcare. Marked Temporal Point Processes (MTPP) provide a principled framework to model both the timing and labels of events. However, most existing research focuses on predicting only the next event, leaving long-horizon forecasting largely underexplored. To address this gap, we introduce HoTPP, the first benchmark specifically designed to rigorously evaluate long-horizon predictions. We identify shortcomings in widely used evaluation metrics, propose a theoretically grounded T-mAP metric, present strong statistical baselines, and offer efficient implementations of popular models. Our empirical results demonstrate that modern MTPP approaches often underperform simple statistical baselines. Furthermore, we analyze the diversity of predicted sequences and find that most methods exhibit mode collapse. Finally, we analyze the impact of autoregression and intensity-based losses on prediction quality, and outline promising directions for future research. The HoTPP source code, hyperparameters, and full evaluation results are available at GitHub.

Risk decision systems in fraud detection and credit scoring operate under structural label absence: ground truth arrives weeks to months after decisions are made. During this blind period, model performance may degrade silently, eroding the governance evidence that justifies automated decisions. Existing drift detection methods either require labels (supervised detectors) or detect statistical change without distinguishing harmful degradation from benign distributional evolution (unsupervised detectors). No existing framework integrates drift detection with governance evidence assessment and operational response. This paper presents a label-free governance monitoring extension to the Governance Drift Toolkit that produces governance alerts rather than statistical alarms. The monitoring architecture applies composite multi-proxy monitoring across four proxy monitors (score distribution, feature drift, prediction entropy, confidence distribution), with governance-calibrated thresholds. Empirical evaluation on the Lending Club credit scoring dataset (1.37M loans, 11 years) demonstrates three findings. First, raw proxy metrics (Feature PSI delta up to 1.84, Score PSI delta up to 0.92) distinguish injected covariate degradation from natural temporal drift in an offline evaluation setting. Second, pure concept drift in P(Y|X) produces exactly zero delta across all proxy metrics in all windows, confirming the irreducible blind spot of label-free monitoring as a structural verification. Third, the composite score provides monotonic severity progression as more monitors trigger (0.583 to 0.833 to 1.000), enabling graduated governance response. Cross-domain comparison with IEEE-CIS fraud detection results shows the detectable/undetectable boundary is consistent across both domains. The toolkit and evaluation code are available as open-source artifacts.

Monitoring changes in the Earth's surface is crucial for understanding natural processes and human impacts, necessitating precise and comprehensive interpretation methodologies. Remote sensing satellite imagery offers a unique perspective for monitoring these changes, leading to the emergence of remote sensing image change interpretation (RSICI) as a significant research focus. Current RSICI technology encompasses change detection and change captioning, each with its limitations in providing comprehensive interpretation. To address this, we propose an interactive Change-Agent, which can follow user instructions to achieve comprehensive change interpretation and insightful analysis, such as change detection and change captioning, change object counting, change cause analysis, etc. The Change-Agent integrates a multi-level change interpretation (MCI) model as the eyes and a large language model (LLM) as the brain. The MCI model contains two branches of pixel-level change detection and semantic-level change captioning, in which the BI-temporal Iterative Interaction (BI3) layer is proposed to enhance the model's discriminative feature representation capabilities. To support the training of the MCI model, we build the LEVIR-MCI dataset with a large number of change masks and captions of changes. Experiments demonstrate the SOTA performance of the MCI model in achieving both change detection and change description simultaneously, and highlight the promising application value of our Change-Agent in facilitating comprehensive interpretation of surface changes, which opens up a new avenue for intelligent remote sensing applications. To facilitate future research, we will make our dataset and codebase of the MCI model and Change-Agent publicly available at https://github.com/Chen-Yang-Liu/Change-Agent

Change detection (CD) aims to identify changes that occur in an image pair taken different times. Prior methods devise specific networks from scratch to predict change masks in pixel-level, and struggle with general segmentation problems. In this paper, we propose a new paradigm that reduces CD to semantic segmentation which means tailoring an existing and powerful semantic segmentation network to solve CD. This new paradigm conveniently enjoys the mainstream semantic segmentation techniques to deal with general segmentation problems in CD. Hence we can concentrate on studying how to detect changes. We propose a novel and importance insight that different change types exist in CD and they should be learned separately. Based on it, we devise a module named MTF to extract the change information and fuse temporal features. MTF enjoys high interpretability and reveals the essential characteristic of CD. And most segmentation networks can be adapted to solve the CD problems with our MTF module. Finally, we propose C-3PO, a network to detect changes at pixel-level. C-3PO achieves state-of-the-art performance without bells and whistles. It is simple but effective and can be considered as a new baseline in this field. Our code is at https://github.com/DoctorKey/C-3PO.

Change Detection (CD) aims to identify pixels with semantic changes between images. However, annotating massive numbers of pixel-level images is labor-intensive and costly, especially for multi-temporal images, which require pixel-wise comparisons by human experts. Considering the excellent performance of visual language models (VLMs) for zero-shot, open-vocabulary, etc. with prompt-based reasoning, it is promising to utilize VLMs to make better CD under limited labeled data. In this paper, we propose a VLM guidance-based semi-supervised CD method, namely SemiCD-VL. The insight of SemiCD-VL is to synthesize free change labels using VLMs to provide additional supervision signals for unlabeled data. However, almost all current VLMs are designed for single-temporal images and cannot be directly applied to bi- or multi-temporal images. Motivated by this, we first propose a VLM-based mixed change event generation (CEG) strategy to yield pseudo labels for unlabeled CD data. Since the additional supervised signals provided by these VLM-driven pseudo labels may conflict with the pseudo labels from the consistency regularization paradigm (e.g. FixMatch), we propose the dual projection head for de-entangling different signal sources. Further, we explicitly decouple the bi-temporal images semantic representation through two auxiliary segmentation decoders, which are also guided by VLM. Finally, to make the model more adequately capture change representations, we introduce metric-aware supervision by feature-level contrastive loss in auxiliary branches. Extensive experiments show the advantage of SemiCD-VL. For instance, SemiCD-VL improves the FixMatch baseline by +5.3 IoU on WHU-CD and by +2.4 IoU on LEVIR-CD with 5% labels. In addition, our CEG strategy, in an un-supervised manner, can achieve performance far superior to state-of-the-art un-supervised CD methods.

Web platforms, mobile applications, and connected sensing systems generate multivariate time series with states at multiple levels of granularity, from coarse regimes to fine-grained events. Effective segmentation in these settings requires integrating across granularities while supporting iterative refinement through sparse prompt signals, which provide a compact mechanism for injecting domain knowledge. Yet existing prompting approaches for time series segmentation operate only within local contexts, so the effect of a prompt quickly fades and cannot guide predictions across the entire sequence. To overcome this limitation, we propose MemPromptTSS, a framework for iterative multi-granularity segmentation that introduces persistent prompt memory. A memory encoder transforms prompts and their surrounding subsequences into memory tokens stored in a bank. This persistent memory enables each new prediction to condition not only on local cues but also on all prompts accumulated across iterations, ensuring their influence persists across the entire sequence. Experiments on six datasets covering wearable sensing and industrial monitoring show that MemPromptTSS achieves 23% and 85% accuracy improvements over the best baseline in single- and multi-granularity segmentation under single iteration inference, and provides stronger refinement in iterative inference with average per-iteration gains of 2.66 percentage points compared to 1.19 for PromptTSS. These results highlight the importance of persistent memory for prompt-guided segmentation, establishing MemPromptTSS as a practical and effective framework for real-world applications.

We introduce a novel interactive satellite image change detection algorithm based on active learning. The proposed method is iterative and consists in frugally probing the user (oracle) about the labels of the most critical images, and according to the oracle's annotations, it updates change detection results. First, we consider a probabilistic framework which assigns to each unlabeled sample a relevance measure modeling how critical is that sample when training change detection functions. We obtain these relevance measures by minimizing an objective function mixing diversity, representativity and uncertainty. These criteria when combined allow exploring different data modes and also refining change detections. Then, we further explore the potential of this objective function, by considering a reinforcement learning approach that finds the best combination of diversity, representativity and uncertainty as well as display-sizes through active learning iterations, leading to better generalization as shown through experiments in interactive satellite image change detection.

Early warning signals have been proposed to forecast the possibility of a critical transition, such as the eutrophication of a lake, the collapse of a coral reef, or the end of a glacial period. Because such transitions often unfold on temporal and spatial scales that can be difficult to approach by experimental manipulation, research has often relied on historical observations as a source of natural experiments. Here we examine a critical difference between selecting systems for study based on the fact that we have observed a critical transition and those systems for which we wish to forecast the approach of a transition. This difference arises by conditionally selecting systems known to experience a transition of some sort and failing to account for the bias this introduces -- a statistical error often known as the Prosecutor's Fallacy. By analysing simulated systems that have experienced transitions purely by chance, we reveal an elevated rate of false positives in common warning signal statistics. We further demonstrate a model-based approach that is less subject to this bias than these more commonly used summary statistics. We note that experimental studies with replicates avoid this pitfall entirely.

We present Open-CD, a change detection toolbox that contains a rich set of change detection methods as well as related components and modules. The toolbox started from a series of open source general vision task tools, including OpenMMLab Toolkits, PyTorch Image Models, etc. It gradually evolves into a unified platform that covers many popular change detection methods and contemporary modules. It not only includes training and inference codes, but also provides some useful scripts for data analysis. We believe this toolbox is by far the most complete change detection toolbox. In this report, we introduce the various features, supported methods and applications of Open-CD. In addition, we also conduct a benchmarking study on different methods and components. We wish that the toolbox and benchmark could serve the growing research community by providing a flexible toolkit to reimplement existing methods and develop their own new change detectors. Code and models are available at https://github.com/likyoo/open-cd. Pioneeringly, this report also includes brief descriptions of the algorithms supported in Open-CD, mainly contributed by their authors. We sincerely encourage researchers in this field to participate in this project and work together to create a more open community. This toolkit and report will be kept updated.

Remote sensing change detection is crucial for understanding the dynamics of our planet's surface, facilitating the monitoring of environmental changes, evaluating human impact, predicting future trends, and supporting decision-making. In this work, we introduce a novel approach for change detection that can leverage off-the-shelf, unlabeled remote sensing images in the training process by pre-training a Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Model (DDPM) - a class of generative models used in image synthesis. DDPMs learn the training data distribution by gradually converting training images into a Gaussian distribution using a Markov chain. During inference (i.e., sampling), they can generate a diverse set of samples closer to the training distribution, starting from Gaussian noise, achieving state-of-the-art image synthesis results. However, in this work, our focus is not on image synthesis but on utilizing it as a pre-trained feature extractor for the downstream application of change detection. Specifically, we fine-tune a lightweight change classifier utilizing the feature representations produced by the pre-trained DDPM alongside change labels. Experiments conducted on the LEVIR-CD, WHU-CD, DSIFN-CD, and CDD datasets demonstrate that the proposed DDPM-CD method significantly outperforms the existing state-of-the-art change detection methods in terms of F1 score, IoU, and overall accuracy, highlighting the pivotal role of pre-trained DDPM as a feature extractor for downstream applications. We have made both the code and pre-trained models available at https://github.com/wgcban/ddpm-cd

The task of root cause analysis (RCA) is to identify the root causes of system faults/failures by analyzing system monitoring data. Efficient RCA can greatly accelerate system failure recovery and mitigate system damages or financial losses. However, previous research has mostly focused on developing offline RCA algorithms, which often require manually initiating the RCA process, a significant amount of time and data to train a robust model, and then being retrained from scratch for a new system fault. In this paper, we propose CORAL, a novel online RCA framework that can automatically trigger the RCA process and incrementally update the RCA model. CORAL consists of Trigger Point Detection, Incremental Disentangled Causal Graph Learning, and Network Propagation-based Root Cause Localization. The Trigger Point Detection component aims to detect system state transitions automatically and in near-real-time. To achieve this, we develop an online trigger point detection approach based on multivariate singular spectrum analysis and cumulative sum statistics. To efficiently update the RCA model, we propose an incremental disentangled causal graph learning approach to decouple the state-invariant and state-dependent information. After that, CORAL applies a random walk with restarts to the updated causal graph to accurately identify root causes. The online RCA process terminates when the causal graph and the generated root cause list converge. Extensive experiments on three real-world datasets with case studies demonstrate the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed framework.

Autonomous agents often require accurate methods for detecting and localizing changes in their environment, particularly when observations are captured from unconstrained and inconsistent viewpoints. We propose a novel label-free, pose-agnostic change detection method that integrates information from multiple viewpoints to construct a change-aware 3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS) representation of the scene. With as few as 5 images of the post-change scene, our approach can learn an additional change channel in a 3DGS and produce change masks that outperform single-view techniques. Our change-aware 3D scene representation additionally enables the generation of accurate change masks for unseen viewpoints. Experimental results demonstrate state-of-the-art performance in complex multi-object scenes, achieving a 1.7x and 1.5x improvement in Mean Intersection Over Union and F1 score respectively over other baselines. We also contribute a new real-world dataset to benchmark change detection in diverse challenging scenes in the presence of lighting variations.

Due to the steadily rising amount of valuable goods in supply chains, tampering detection for parcels is becoming increasingly important. In this work, we focus on the use-case last-mile delivery, where only a single RGB image is taken and compared against a reference from an existing database to detect potential appearance changes that indicate tampering. We propose a tampering detection pipeline that utilizes keypoint detection to identify the eight corner points of a parcel. This permits applying a perspective transformation to create normalized fronto-parallel views for each visible parcel side surface. These viewpoint-invariant parcel side surface representations facilitate the identification of signs of tampering on parcels within the supply chain, since they reduce the problem to parcel side surface matching with pair-wise appearance change detection. Experiments with multiple classical and deep learning-based change detection approaches are performed on our newly collected TAMpering detection dataset for PARcels, called TAMPAR. We evaluate keypoint and change detection separately, as well as in a unified system for tampering detection. Our evaluation shows promising results for keypoint (Keypoint AP 75.76) and tampering detection (81% accuracy, F1-Score 0.83) on real images. Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis for tampering types, lens distortion and viewing angles is presented. Code and dataset are available at https://a-nau.github.io/tampar.

Recent advances in data collection technology, accompanied by the ever-rising volume and velocity of streaming data, underscore the vital need for time series analytics. In this regard, time-series anomaly detection has been an important activity, entailing various applications in fields such as cyber security, financial markets, law enforcement, and health care. While traditional literature on anomaly detection is centered on statistical measures, the increasing number of machine learning algorithms in recent years call for a structured, general characterization of the research methods for time-series anomaly detection. This survey groups and summarizes anomaly detection existing solutions under a process-centric taxonomy in the time series context. In addition to giving an original categorization of anomaly detection methods, we also perform a meta-analysis of the literature and outline general trends in time-series anomaly detection research.

Monitoring machine learning models once they are deployed is challenging. It is even more challenging to decide when to retrain models in real-case scenarios when labeled data is beyond reach, and monitoring performance metrics becomes unfeasible. In this work, we use non-parametric bootstrapped uncertainty estimates and SHAP values to provide explainable uncertainty estimation as a technique that aims to monitor the deterioration of machine learning models in deployment environments, as well as determine the source of model deterioration when target labels are not available. Classical methods are purely aimed at detecting distribution shift, which can lead to false positives in the sense that the model has not deteriorated despite a shift in the data distribution. To estimate model uncertainty we construct prediction intervals using a novel bootstrap method, which improves upon the work of Kumar & Srivastava (2012). We show that both our model deterioration detection system as well as our uncertainty estimation method achieve better performance than the current state-of-the-art. Finally, we use explainable AI techniques to gain an understanding of the drivers of model deterioration. We release an open source Python package, doubt, which implements our proposed methods, as well as the code used to reproduce our experiments.

We present a novel method for measuring the rate of periodic phenomena (e.g., rotation, flicker, and vibration), by an event camera, a device asynchronously reporting brightness changes at independently operating pixels with high temporal resolution. The approach assumes that for a periodic phenomenon, a highly similar set of events is generated within a spatio-temporal window at a time difference corresponding to its period. The sets of similar events are detected by a correlation in the spatio-temporal event stream space. The proposed method, EEPPR, is evaluated on a dataset of 12 sequences of periodic phenomena, i.e. flashing light and vibration, and periodic motion, e.g., rotation, ranging from 3.2 Hz to 2 kHz (equivalent to 192 - 120 000 RPM). EEPPR significantly outperforms published methods on this dataset, achieving a mean relative error of 0.1%, setting new state-of-the-art. The dataset and codes are publicly available on GitHub.

While previous distribution shift detection approaches can identify if a shift has occurred, these approaches cannot localize which specific features have caused a distribution shift -- a critical step in diagnosing or fixing any underlying issue. For example, in military sensor networks, users will want to detect when one or more of the sensors has been compromised, and critically, they will want to know which specific sensors might be compromised. Thus, we first define a formalization of this problem as multiple conditional distribution hypothesis tests and propose both non-parametric and parametric statistical tests. For both efficiency and flexibility, we then propose to use a test statistic based on the density model score function (i.e. gradient with respect to the input) -- which can easily compute test statistics for all dimensions in a single forward and backward pass. Any density model could be used for computing the necessary statistics including deep density models such as normalizing flows or autoregressive models. We additionally develop methods for identifying when and where a shift occurs in multivariate time-series data and show results for multiple scenarios using realistic attack models on both simulated and real world data.

Long-horizon LLM agents can fail quietly: they settle on one reading of the evidence early, then spend the rest of the run defending it. We call this premature commitment. Final-answer scoring misses the failure mode because it sees only the answer, not whether the process has already collapsed to a stable path. We define representational commitment as cross-run hidden-state convergence at a fixed reasoning step, and use it as an early diagnostic of trajectory consistency. On Llama-3.1-70B running ReAct on HotpotQA, step-4 hidden-state similarity predicts downstream behavioral consistency (r = -0.35, partial r = -0.45), with a localized temporal and layer-wise signature. The signal replicates across Qwen-2.5-72B and Phi-3-14B, and on StrategyQA (r = -0.83). It does not track correctness: committed-wrong and committed-correct questions are not separable in activation similarity. That boundary is central to the claim. Commitment tells us whether an agent has settled, not whether it is right. A runtime monitor detects inconsistent trajectories from hidden states at AUROC up to 0.97 (0.85--0.88 under a stricter split), and a prompting intervention cuts behavioral variance by 28% against a token-matched control while leaving accuracy statistically unchanged. We also test whether the signal can route self-consistency compute; on a harder benchmark it helps only modestly and is matched by a simpler output-based baseline. The result is a diagnostic for a hidden process failure, with clear limits rather than a general accuracy lever.

Remote sensing change detection (RSCD) aims to localise changes between two images of the same geographic region. In practice, change masks often follow region-level annotation conventions rather than purely local appearance differences, making them context-dependent and occasionally ambiguous. Most state-of-the-art methods utilise per-pixel discriminative classification, which produces a single prediction per input and fails to explicitly model the changed region as a coherent whole. A natural alternative is generative formulation, which can model a distribution of plausible masks, enabling sampling to capture ambiguity and encourage global consistency. However, existing generative RSCD approaches typically lag behind strong discriminative baselines due to the high computational cost of pixel-space generation and the complexity of their conditioning mechanisms. To address the limitations of prior discriminative and generative methods, we propose ChangeFlow, a generative framework that reformulates change detection as the synthesis of a change mask in latent space via rectified flow. ChangeFlow is guided by a structured yet lightweight conditioning signal, and its stochastic design naturally supports sampling-based prediction ensembling. Namely, aggregating multiple predicted change masks improves robustness, while sample agreement provides a practical confidence estimation that highlights ambiguous regions. Across four benchmarks, ChangeFlow achieves an average F1 of 80.4\%, improving by 1.3 points on average over the previous best method, while maintaining inference speed comparable to recent strong baselines. Project page: https://blaz-r.github.io/changeflow_cd

Video understanding requires models to continuously track and update world state during playback. While existing benchmarks have advanced video understanding evaluation across multiple dimensions, the observation of how models maintain world state remains insufficient. We propose VCBench, a streaming counting benchmark that repositions counting as a minimal probe for diagnosing world state maintenance capability. We decompose this capability into object counting and event counting, forming 8 fine-grained subcategories. Object counting covers tracking currently visible objects and cumulative unique identities, while event counting covers detecting instantaneous actions and tracking complete activity cycles. VCBench contains 406 videos with frame-by-frame annotations of 10,071 event occurrence moments and object state change moments, generating 1,000 streaming QA pairs with 4,576 query points along timelines. By observing state maintenance trajectories through streaming multi-point queries, we design three complementary metrics to diagnose numerical precision, trajectory consistency, and temporal awareness. Evaluation on mainstream video-language models shows that current models still exhibit significant deficiencies in spatial-temporal state maintenance, particularly struggling with tasks like periodic event counting. VCBench provides a diagnostic framework for measuring and improving state maintenance in video understanding systems. Our code and data are available at https://github.com/buaaplay/VCBench.

Predictive process monitoring is a process mining task aimed at forecasting information about a running process trace, such as the most correct next activity to be executed. In medical domains, predictive process monitoring can provide valuable decision support in atypical and nontrivial situations. Decision support and quality assessment in medicine cannot ignore domain knowledge, in order to be grounded on all the available information (which is not limited to data) and to be really acceptable by end users. In this paper, we propose a predictive process monitoring approach relying on the use of a {\em transformer}, a deep learning architecture based on the attention mechanism. A major contribution of our work lies in the incorporation of ontological domain-specific knowledge, carried out through a graph positional encoding technique. The paper presents and discusses the encouraging experimental result we are collecting in the domain of stroke management.

Non-stationarity of an underlying data generating process that leads to distributional changes over time is a key characteristic of Data Streams. This phenomenon, commonly referred to as Concept Drift, has been intensively studied, and Concept Drift Detectors have been established as a class of methods for detecting such changes (drifts). For the most part, Drift Detectors compare regions (windows) of the data stream and detect drift if those windows are sufficiently dissimilar. In this work, we introduce the Window Dilemma, an observation that perceived drift is a product of windowing and not necessarily the underlying data generating process. Additionally, we highlight that drift detection is ill-posed, primarily because verification of drift events are implausible in practice. We demonstrate these contributions first by an illustrative example, followed by empirical comparisons of drift detectors against a variety of alternative adaptation strategies. Our main finding is that traditional batch learning techniques often perform better than their drift-aware counterparts further bringing into question the purpose of detectors in Stream Classification.

The usage of electronic devices increases, and becomes predominant in most aspects of life. Surface Mount Technology (SMT) is the most common industrial method for manufacturing electric devices in which electrical components are mounted directly onto the surface of a Printed Circuit Board (PCB). Although the expansion of electronic devices affects our lives in a productive way, failures or defects in the manufacturing procedure of those devices might also be counterproductive and even harmful in some cases. It is therefore desired and sometimes crucial to ensure zero-defect quality in electronic devices and their production. While traditional Image Processing (IP) techniques are not sufficient to produce a complete solution, other promising methods like Deep Learning (DL) might also be challenging for PCB inspection, mainly because such methods require big adequate datasets which are missing, not available or not updated in the rapidly growing field of PCBs. Thus, PCB inspection is conventionally performed manually by human experts. Unsupervised Learning (UL) methods may potentially be suitable for PCB inspection, having learning capabilities on the one hand, while not relying on large datasets on the other. In this paper, we introduce ChangeChip, an automated and integrated change detection system for defect detection in PCBs, from soldering defects to missing or misaligned electronic elements, based on Computer Vision (CV) and UL. We achieve good quality defect detection by applying an unsupervised change detection between images of a golden PCB (reference) and the inspected PCB under various setting. In this work, we also present CD-PCB, a synthesized labeled dataset of 20 pairs of PCB images for evaluation of defect detection algorithms.

Observability into the decision making of modern AI systems may be required to safely deploy increasingly capable agents. Monitoring the chain-of-thought (CoT) of today's reasoning models has proven effective for detecting misbehavior. However, this "monitorability" may be fragile under different training procedures, data sources, or even continued system scaling. To measure and track monitorability, we propose three evaluation archetypes (intervention, process, and outcome-property) and a new monitorability metric, and introduce a broad evaluation suite. We demonstrate that these evaluations can catch simple model organisms trained to have obfuscated CoTs, and that CoT monitoring is more effective than action-only monitoring in practical settings. We compare the monitorability of various frontier models and find that most models are fairly, but not perfectly, monitorable. We also evaluate how monitorability scales with inference-time compute, reinforcement learning optimization, and pre-training model size. We find that longer CoTs are generally more monitorable and that RL optimization does not materially decrease monitorability even at the current frontier scale. Notably, we find that for a model at a low reasoning effort, we could instead deploy a smaller model at a higher reasoning effort (thereby matching capabilities) and obtain a higher monitorability, albeit at a higher overall inference compute cost. We further investigate agent-monitor scaling trends and find that scaling a weak monitor's test-time compute when monitoring a strong agent increases monitorability. Giving the weak monitor access to CoT not only improves monitorability, but it steepens the monitor's test-time compute to monitorability scaling trend. Finally, we show we can improve monitorability by asking models follow-up questions and giving their follow-up CoT to the monitor.

In statistical modelling the biggest threat is concept drift which makes the model gradually showing deteriorating performance over time. There are state of the art methodologies to detect the impact of concept drift, however general strategy considered to overcome the issue in performance is to rebuild or re-calibrate the model periodically as the variable patterns for the model changes significantly due to market change or consumer behavior change etc. Quantitative research is the most widely spread application of data science in Marketing or financial domain where applicability of state of the art reinforcement learning for auto-learning is less explored paradigm. Reinforcement learning is heavily dependent on having a simulated environment which is majorly available for gaming or online systems, to learn from the live feedback. However, there are some research happened on the area of online advertisement, pricing etc where due to the nature of the online learning environment scope of reinforcement learning is explored. Our proposed solution is a reinforcement learning based, true self-learning algorithm which can adapt to the data change or concept drift and auto learn and self-calibrate for the new patterns of the data solving the problem of concept drift. Keywords - Reinforcement learning, Genetic Algorithm, Q-learning, Classification modelling, CMA-ES, NES, Multi objective optimization, Concept drift, Population stability index, Incremental learning, F1-measure, Predictive Modelling, Self-learning, MCTS, AlphaGo, AlphaZero

Change detection is a crucial and widely applied task in remote sensing, aimed at identifying and analyzing changes occurring in the same geographical area over time. Due to variability in acquisition conditions, bi-temporal remote sensing images often exhibit significant differences in image style. Even with the powerful generalization capabilities of DNNs, these unpredictable style variations between bi-temporal images inevitably affect model's ability to accurately detect changed areas. To address issue above, we propose the Content Focuser Network (CFNet), which takes content-aware strategy as a key insight. CFNet employs EfficientNet-B5 as the backbone for feature extraction. To enhance the model's focus on the content features of images while mitigating the misleading effects of style features, we develop a constraint strategy that prioritizes the content features of bi-temporal images, termed Content-Aware. Furthermore, to enable the model to flexibly focus on changed and unchanged areas according to the requirements of different stages, we design a reweighting module based on the cosine distance between bi-temporal image features, termed Focuser. CFNet achieve outstanding performance across three well-known change detection datasets: CLCD (F1: 81.41%, IoU: 68.65%), LEVIR-CD (F1: 92.18%, IoU: 85.49%), and SYSU-CD (F1: 82.89%, IoU: 70.78%). The code and pretrained models of CFNet are publicly released at https://github.com/wifiBlack/CFNet.

Anomaly detection is critical in surveillance systems and patrol robots by identifying anomalous regions in images for early warning. Depending on whether reference data are utilized, anomaly detection can be categorized into anomaly detection with reference and anomaly detection without reference. Currently, anomaly detection without reference, which is closely related to out-of-distribution (OoD) object detection, struggles with learning anomalous patterns due to the difficulty of collecting sufficiently large and diverse anomaly datasets with the inherent rarity and novelty of anomalies. Alternatively, anomaly detection with reference employs the scheme of change detection to identify anomalies by comparing semantic changes between a reference image and a query one. However, there are very few ADr works due to the scarcity of public datasets in this domain. In this paper, we aim to address this gap by introducing the UMAD Benchmark Dataset. To our best knowledge, this is the first benchmark dataset designed specifically for anomaly detection with reference in robotic patrolling scenarios, e.g., where an autonomous robot is employed to detect anomalous objects by comparing a reference and a query video sequences. The reference sequences can be taken by the robot along a specified route when there are no anomalous objects in the scene. The query sequences are captured online by the robot when it is patrolling in the same scene following the same route. Our benchmark dataset is elaborated such that each query image can find a corresponding reference based on accurate robot localization along the same route in the prebuilt 3D map, with which the reference and query images can be geometrically aligned using adaptive warping. Besides the proposed benchmark dataset, we evaluate the baseline models of ADr on this dataset.

In the Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT), condition monitoring sensor signals from complex systems often exhibit nonlinear and stochastic spatial-temporal dynamics under varying conditions. These complex dynamics make fault detection particularly challenging. While previous methods effectively model these dynamics, they often neglect the evolution of relationships between sensor signals. Undetected shifts in these relationships can lead to significant system failures. Furthermore, these methods frequently misidentify novel operating conditions as faults. Addressing these limitations, we propose DyEdgeGAT (Dynamic Edge via Graph Attention), a novel approach for early-stage fault detection in IIoT systems. DyEdgeGAT's primary innovation lies in a novel graph inference scheme for multivariate time series that tracks the evolution of relationships between time series, enabled by dynamic edge construction. Another key innovation of DyEdgeGAT is its ability to incorporate operating condition contexts into node dynamics modeling, enhancing its accuracy and robustness. We rigorously evaluated DyEdgeGAT using both a synthetic dataset, simulating varying levels of fault severity, and a real-world industrial-scale multiphase flow facility benchmark with diverse fault types under varying operating conditions and detection complexities. The results show that DyEdgeGAT significantly outperforms other baseline methods in fault detection, particularly in the early stages with low severity, and exhibits robust performance under novel operating conditions.

Evaluating anomaly detection algorithms in time series data is critical as inaccuracies can lead to flawed decision-making in various domains where real-time analytics and data-driven strategies are essential. Traditional performance metrics assume iid data and fail to capture the complex temporal dynamics and specific characteristics of time series anomalies, such as early and delayed detections. We introduce Proximity-Aware Time series anomaly Evaluation (PATE), a novel evaluation metric that incorporates the temporal relationship between prediction and anomaly intervals. PATE uses proximity-based weighting considering buffer zones around anomaly intervals, enabling a more detailed and informed assessment of a detection. Using these weights, PATE computes a weighted version of the area under the Precision and Recall curve. Our experiments with synthetic and real-world datasets show the superiority of PATE in providing more sensible and accurate evaluations than other evaluation metrics. We also tested several state-of-the-art anomaly detectors across various benchmark datasets using the PATE evaluation scheme. The results show that a common metric like Point-Adjusted F1 Score fails to characterize the detection performances well, and that PATE is able to provide a more fair model comparison. By introducing PATE, we redefine the understanding of model efficacy that steers future studies toward developing more effective and accurate detection models.

Change detection in remote sensing imagery is essential for a variety of applications such as urban planning, disaster management, and climate research. However, existing methods for identifying semantically changed areas overlook the availability of semantic information in the form of existing maps describing features of the earth's surface. In this paper, we leverage this information for change detection in bi-temporal images. We show that the simple integration of the additional information via concatenation of latent representations suffices to significantly outperform state-of-the-art change detection methods. Motivated by this observation, we propose the new task of *Conditional Change Detection*, where pre-change semantic information is used as input next to bi-temporal images. To fully exploit the extra information, we propose *MapFormer*, a novel architecture based on a multi-modal feature fusion module that allows for feature processing conditioned on the available semantic information. We further employ a supervised, cross-modal contrastive loss to guide the learning of visual representations. Our approach outperforms existing change detection methods by an absolute 11.7\% and 18.4\% in terms of binary change IoU on DynamicEarthNet and HRSCD, respectively. Furthermore, we demonstrate the robustness of our approach to the quality of the pre-change semantic information and the absence pre-change imagery. The code is available at https://github.com/mxbh/mapformer.

Accurately assessing dietary behavior change receptivity is essential for designing effective just-in-time adaptive interventions (JITAIs) that promote healthier eating habits. However, self-report-based assessment of behavior change receptivity is sparse and delayed, limiting its practical use in continuous monitoring. To explore whether passive sensing may help address this challenge, this study conducts a pilot investigation of inferring participants' self-reported behavior change receptivity from egocentric eating images collected by a wearable camera. We use pilot data obtained from free-living eating episodes using the Automatic Ingestion Monitor v2 (AIM-2). The data included egocentric image sequences captured during eating and paired with responses to questions assessing specific dimensions of behavior change receptivity (awareness, interaction capability, and motivation). To examine whether visual information contained any relevancy to these responses, we evaluated a transfer-learning-assisted framework that combines a pre-trained Contrastive Language-Image Pre-Training (CLIP) vision encoder with a lightweight transformer classifier. The model processes eating episode image sequences to extract potential semantic and temporal cues related to behavior change receptivity. Preliminary experimental results show promising improvements over simple baseline models for behavior change receptivity indicators. These early findings suggest that egocentric eating episode images may contain cues related to dietary behavior change receptivity, and warrant further investigation with larger and more comprehensive datasets.

Model uncertainty and limited data are fundamental challenges to robust management of human intervention in a natural system. These challenges are acutely highlighted by concerns that many ecological systems may contain tipping points, such as Allee population sizes. Before a collapse, we do not know where the tipping points lie, if they exist at all. Hence, we know neither a complete model of the system dynamics nor do we have access to data in some large region of state-space where such a tipping point might exist. We illustrate how a Bayesian Non-Parametric (BNP) approach using a Gaussian Process (GP) prior provides a flexible representation of this inherent uncertainty. We embed GPs in a Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP) framework in order to make robust management predictions with both model uncertainty and limited data. We use simulations to evaluate this approach as compared with the standard approach of using model selection to choose from a set of candidate models. We find that model selection erroneously favors models without tipping points -- leading to harvest policies that guarantee extinction. The GPDP performs nearly as well as the true model and significantly outperforms standard approaches. We illustrate this using examples of simulated single-species dynamics, where the standard model selection approach should be most effective, and find that it still fails to account for uncertainty appropriately and leads to population crashes, while management based on the GPDP does not, since it does not underestimate the uncertainty outside of the observed data.

Point-adjustment (PA), for years the default scoring protocol in time-series anomaly detection (TSAD), was shown by Kim et al. (2022) to award near-perfect F1 to random anomaly scores. The field adopted a suite of replacement metrics (PA%K, range-based precision/recall, affiliation precision/recall, and Volume-Under-the-Surface, VUS, ROC/PR). We ask, independently and adversarially, whether these resist no-skill detectors on real benchmarks, and find the answer turns entirely on one overlooked variable: N, the number of random attempts an adversary reports the best of. Under a single honest run (N=1), not one replacement metric is gameable on any of six benchmarks (UCR, SMD, SMAP, MSL, NAB, PSM): a random detector reaches 90% of the best real detector's score on at most 11% of series for affiliation-F1, 5% for the ROC family, and 2% for the PR-based metrics and PA%K. But under best-of-N reporting, the seed-shopping endemic to ML, the metrics split sharply. affiliation-F1 and every ROC-based metric inflate steeply, affiliation crossing gameable (25% of series) by N=3 and reaching 0.98 at the full pool (N=41), the ROC family crossing by N=9-11; the PR-based metrics and PA%K stay near-flat at every N, floored near the anomaly prevalence (the lone exception is NAB at large N). A paired test finds VUS-ROC inflated on 131 series where its sibling VUS-PR is not, and never the reverse. The ROC-vs-PR split follows from the order-statistic behaviour of AUC under extreme class imbalance (a random PR-AUC is floored at prevalence); affiliation inflates by a second route, its extreme single-run leniency (already fragile at N=1). We release a pip-installable stress-test harness, and recommend reporting single-run scores or disclosing N and preferring PR-based metrics, which resist best-of-N inflation on nearly every benchmark.

Machine learning systems in fraud detection, credit scoring, and clinical risk assessment operate under delayed ground truth: outcome labels arrive days to months after the decision they evaluate. During this blind period, governance evidence degrades through mechanisms that neither drift detection methods nor governance frameworks adequately address. This paper formalizes an evidence sufficiency model with four dimensions (completeness, freshness, reliability, representativeness) and a decision-readiness gate that quantifies how label latency degrades evidence quality. The model maps three drift types to dimension-specific degradation trajectories. A complementary proxy indicator framework comprising seven measurement categories estimates sufficiency degradation without labels, with explicit coverage mapping and characterized blind spots per drift type. Evaluation on the IEEE-CIS Fraud Detection dataset (~590K transactions) with controlled drift injection shows that composite proxy monitoring detects covariate and mixed drift with 100% detection rate, while concept drift without feature change remains undetected -- consistent with the theoretical impossibility of unsupervised detection when P(X) is unchanged. Blind period simulation confirms monotone sufficiency degradation, with concept drift degrading fastest (S=0.242 at day 60 vs 0.418 for no-drift). The framework contributes a governance sufficiency monitoring instrument; its value lies in translating drift signals into auditable sufficiency assessments with characterized blind spots. Mapping sufficiency levels to governance actions requires deployment-specific calibration beyond this study's scope.

The Earth's surface is constantly changing, and detecting these changes provides valuable insights that benefit various aspects of human society. While traditional change detection methods have been employed to detect changes from bi-temporal images, these approaches typically require expert knowledge for accurate interpretation. To enable broader and more flexible access to change information by non-expert users, the task of Change Detection Visual Question Answering (CDVQA) has been introduced. However, existing CDVQA methods have been developed under the assumption that training and testing datasets share similar distributions. This assumption does not hold in real-world applications, where domain shifts often occur. In this paper, the CDVQA task is revisited with a focus on addressing domain shift. To this end, a new multi-modal and multi-domain dataset, BrightVQA, is introduced to facilitate domain generalization research in CDVQA. Furthermore, a novel state space model, termed Text-Conditioned State Space Model (TCSSM), is proposed. The TCSSM framework is designed to leverage both bi-temporal imagery and geo-disaster-related textual information in an unified manner to extract domain-invariant features across domains. Input-dependent parameters existing in TCSSM are dynamically predicted by using both bi-temporal images and geo-disaster-related description, thereby facilitating the alignment between bi-temporal visual data and the associated textual descriptions. Extensive experiments are conducted to evaluate the proposed method against state-of-the-art models, and superior performance is consistently demonstrated. The code and dataset will be made publicly available upon acceptance at https://github.com/Elman295/TCSSM.

Change detection in remote sensing images is essential for tracking environmental changes on the Earth's surface. Despite the success of vision transformers (ViTs) as backbones in numerous computer vision applications, they remain underutilized in change detection, where convolutional neural networks (CNNs) continue to dominate due to their powerful feature extraction capabilities. In this paper, our study uncovers ViTs' unique advantage in discerning large-scale changes, a capability where CNNs fall short. Capitalizing on this insight, we introduce ChangeViT, a framework that adopts a plain ViT backbone to enhance the performance of large-scale changes. This framework is supplemented by a detail-capture module that generates detailed spatial features and a feature injector that efficiently integrates fine-grained spatial information into high-level semantic learning. The feature integration ensures that ChangeViT excels in both detecting large-scale changes and capturing fine-grained details, providing comprehensive change detection across diverse scales. Without bells and whistles, ChangeViT achieves state-of-the-art performance on three popular high-resolution datasets (i.e., LEVIR-CD, WHU-CD, and CLCD) and one low-resolution dataset (i.e., OSCD), which underscores the unleashed potential of plain ViTs for change detection. Furthermore, thorough quantitative and qualitative analyses validate the efficacy of the introduced modules, solidifying the effectiveness of our approach. The source code is available at https://github.com/zhuduowang/ChangeViT.

Remote sensing change detection aims to compare two or more images recorded for the same area but taken at different time stamps to quantitatively and qualitatively assess changes in geographical entities and environmental factors. Mainstream models usually built on pixel-by-pixel change detection paradigms, which cannot tolerate the diversity of changes due to complex scenes and variation in imaging conditions. To address this shortcoming, this paper rethinks the change detection with the mask view, and further proposes the corresponding: 1) meta-architecture CDMask and 2) instance network CDMaskFormer. Components of CDMask include Siamese backbone, change extractor, pixel decoder, transformer decoder and normalized detector, which ensures the proper functioning of the mask detection paradigm. Since the change query can be adaptively updated based on the bi-temporal feature content, the proposed CDMask can adapt to different latent data distributions, thus accurately identifying regions of interest changes in complex scenarios. Consequently, we further propose the instance network CDMaskFormer customized for the change detection task, which includes: (i) a Spatial-temporal convolutional attention-based instantiated change extractor to capture spatio-temporal context simultaneously with lightweight operations; and (ii) a scene-guided axial attention-instantiated transformer decoder to extract more spatial details. State-of-the-art performance of CDMaskFormer is achieved on five benchmark datasets with a satisfactory efficiency-accuracy trade-off. Code is available at https://github.com/xwmaxwma/rschange.

We introduce a novel method for measuring properties of periodic phenomena with an event camera, a device asynchronously reporting brightness changes at independently operating pixels. The approach assumes that for fast periodic phenomena, in any spatial window where it occurs, a very similar set of events is generated at the time difference corresponding to the frequency of the motion. To estimate the frequency, we compute correlations of spatio-temporal windows in the event space. The period is calculated from the time differences between the peaks of the correlation responses. The method is contactless, eliminating the need for markers, and does not need distinguishable landmarks. We evaluate the proposed method on three instances of periodic phenomena: (i) light flashes, (ii) vibration, and (iii) rotational speed. In all experiments, our method achieves a relative error lower than 0.04%, which is within the error margin of ground truth measurements.

Imitation learning has enabled robots to acquire complex visuomotor manipulation skills from demonstrations, but deployment failures remain a major obstacle, especially for long-horizon action-chunked policies. Once execution drifts off the demonstration manifold, these policies often continue producing locally plausible actions without recovering from the failure. Existing runtime monitors either require failure data, over-trigger under benign feature drift, or stop at failure detection without providing a recovery mechanism. We present Rewind-IL, a training-free online safeguard framework for generative action-chunked imitation policies. Rewind-IL combines a zero-shot failure detector based on Temporal Inter-chunk Discrepancy Estimate (TIDE), calibrated with split conformal prediction, with a state-respawning mechanism that returns the robot to a semantically verified safe intermediate state. Offline, a vision-language model identifies recovery checkpoints in demonstrations, and the frozen policy encoder is used to construct a compact checkpoint feature database. Online, Rewind-IL monitors self-consistency in overlapping action chunks, tracks similarity to the checkpoint library, and, upon failure, rewinds execution to the latest verified safe state before restarting inference from a clean policy state. Experiments on real-world and simulated long-horizon manipulation tasks, including transfer to flow-matching action-chunked policies, demonstrate that policy-internal consistency coupled with semantically grounded respawning offers a practical route to improved reliability in imitation learning. Supplemental materials are available at https://sjay05.github.io/rewind-il

Monitoring is an important aspect of safely deploying Large Language Models (LLMs). This paper examines activation probes for detecting ``high-stakes'' interactions -- where the text indicates that the interaction might lead to significant harm -- as a critical, yet underexplored, target for such monitoring. We evaluate several probe architectures trained on synthetic data, and find them to exhibit robust generalization to diverse, out-of-distribution, real-world data. Probes' performance is comparable to that of prompted or finetuned medium-sized LLM monitors, while offering computational savings of six orders-of-magnitude. These savings are enabled by reusing activations of the model that is being monitored. Our experiments also highlight the potential of building resource-aware hierarchical monitoring systems, where probes serve as an efficient initial filter and flag cases for more expensive downstream analysis. We release our novel synthetic dataset and the codebase at https://github.com/arrrlex/models-under-pressure.

Change detection is a key task in Earth observation applications. Recently, deep learning methods have demonstrated strong performance and widespread application. However, change detection faces data scarcity due to the labor-intensive process of accurately aligning remote sensing images of the same area, which limits the performance of deep learning algorithms. To address the data scarcity issue, we develop a fine-tuning strategy called the Semantic Change Network (SCN). We initially pre-train the model on single-temporal supervised tasks to acquire prior knowledge of instance feature extraction. The model then employs a shared-weight Siamese architecture and extended Temporal Fusion Module (TFM) to preserve this prior knowledge and is fine-tuned on change detection tasks. The learned semantics for identifying all instances is changed to focus on identifying only the changes. Meanwhile, we observe that the locations of changes between the two images are spatially identical, a concept we refer to as spatial consistency. We introduce this inductive bias through an attention map that is generated by large-kernel convolutions and applied to the features from both time points. This enhances the modeling of multi-scale changes and helps capture underlying relationships in change detection semantics. We develop a binary change detection model utilizing these two strategies. The model is validated against state-of-the-art methods on six datasets, surpassing all benchmark methods and achieving F1 scores of 92.87%, 86.43%, 68.95%, 97.62%, 84.58%, and 93.20% on the LEVIR-CD, LEVIR-CD+, S2Looking, CDD, SYSU-CD, and WHU-CD datasets, respectively.

Temporal Point Processes (TPP) are probabilistic generative frameworks. They model discrete event sequences localized in continuous time. Generally, real-life events reveal descriptive information, known as marks. Marked TPPs model time and marks of the event together for practical relevance. Conditioned on past events, marked TPPs aim to learn the joint distribution of the time and the mark of the next event. For simplicity, conditionally independent TPP models assume time and marks are independent given event history. They factorize the conditional joint distribution of time and mark into the product of individual conditional distributions. This structural limitation in the design of TPP models hurt the predictive performance on entangled time and mark interactions. In this work, we model the conditional inter-dependence of time and mark to overcome the limitations of conditionally independent models. We construct a multivariate TPP conditioning the time distribution on the current event mark in addition to past events. Besides the conventional intensity-based models for conditional joint distribution, we also draw on flexible intensity-free TPP models from the literature. The proposed TPP models outperform conditionally independent and dependent models in standard prediction tasks. Our experimentation on various datasets with multiple evaluation metrics highlights the merit of the proposed approach.

In this work, we study an integrated fault detection and classification framework called FARM for fast, accurate, and robust online chemical process monitoring. The FARM framework integrates the latest advancements in statistical process control (SPC) for monitoring nonparametric and heterogeneous data streams with novel data analysis approaches based on Riemannian geometry together in a hierarchical framework for online process monitoring. We conduct a systematic evaluation of the FARM monitoring framework using the Tennessee Eastman Process (TEP) dataset. Results show that FARM performs competitively against state-of-the-art process monitoring algorithms by achieving a good balance among fault detection rate (FDR), fault detection speed (FDS), and false alarm rate (FAR). Specifically, FARM achieved an average FDR of 96.97% while also outperforming benchmark methods in successfully detecting hard-to-detect faults that are previously known, including Faults 3, 9 and 15, with FDRs being 97.08%, 96.30% and 95.99%, respectively. In terms of FAR, our FARM framework allows practitioners to customize their choice of FAR, thereby offering great flexibility. Moreover, we report a significant improvement in average fault classification accuracy during online monitoring from 61% to 82% when leveraging Riemannian geometric analysis, and further to 84.5% when incorporating additional features from SPC. This illustrates the synergistic effect of integrating fault detection and classification in a holistic, hierarchical monitoring framework.

Accurate interpretation of land-cover changes in multi-temporal satellite imagery is critical for real-world scenarios. However, existing methods typically provide only one-shot change masks or static captions, limiting their ability to support interactive, query-driven analysis. In this work, we introduce remote sensing image change analysis (RSICA) as a new paradigm that combines the strengths of change detection and visual question answering to enable multi-turn, instruction-guided exploration of changes in bi-temporal remote sensing images. To support this task, we construct ChangeChat-105k, a large-scale instruction-following dataset, generated through a hybrid rule-based and GPT-assisted process, covering six interaction types: change captioning, classification, quantification, localization, open-ended question answering, and multi-turn dialogues. Building on this dataset, we propose DeltaVLM, an end-to-end architecture tailored for interactive RSICA. DeltaVLM features three innovations: (1) a fine-tuned bi-temporal vision encoder to capture temporal differences; (2) a visual difference perception module with a cross-semantic relation measuring (CSRM) mechanism to interpret changes; and (3) an instruction-guided Q-former to effectively extract query-relevant difference information from visual changes, aligning them with textual instructions. We train DeltaVLM on ChangeChat-105k using a frozen large language model, adapting only the vision and alignment modules to optimize efficiency. Extensive experiments and ablation studies demonstrate that DeltaVLM achieves state-of-the-art performance on both single-turn captioning and multi-turn interactive change analysis, outperforming existing multimodal large language models and remote sensing vision-language models. Code, dataset and pre-trained weights are available at https://github.com/hanlinwu/DeltaVLM.

Understanding the temporal dynamics of Earth's surface is a mission of multi-temporal remote sensing image analysis, significantly promoted by deep vision models with its fuel -- labeled multi-temporal images. However, collecting, preprocessing, and annotating multi-temporal remote sensing images at scale is non-trivial since it is expensive and knowledge-intensive. In this paper, we present a scalable multi-temporal remote sensing change data generator via generative modeling, which is cheap and automatic, alleviating these problems. Our main idea is to simulate a stochastic change process over time. We consider the stochastic change process as a probabilistic semantic state transition, namely generative probabilistic change model (GPCM), which decouples the complex simulation problem into two more trackable sub-problems, \ie, change event simulation and semantic change synthesis. To solve these two problems, we present the change generator (Changen), a GAN-based GPCM, enabling controllable object change data generation, including customizable object property, and change event. The extensive experiments suggest that our Changen has superior generation capability, and the change detectors with Changen pre-training exhibit excellent transferability to real-world change datasets.

We address the problem of runtime trajectory anomaly detection, a critical capability for enabling trustworthy LLM agents. Current safety measures predominantly focus on static input/output filtering. However, we argue that ensuring LLM agents reliability requires auditing the intermediate execution process. In this work, we formulate the task of Trajectory Anomaly Detection. The goal is not merely detection, but precise error localization. This capability is essential for enabling efficient rollback-and-retry. To achieve this, we construct TrajBench, a dataset synthesized via a perturb-and-complete strategy to cover diverse procedural anomalies. Using this benchmark, we investigate the capability of models in process supervision. We observe that general-purpose LLMs, even with zero-shot prompting, struggle to identify and localize these anomalies. This reveals that generalized capabilities do not automatically translate to process reliability. To address this, we propose TrajAD, a specialized verifier trained with fine-grained process supervision. Our approach outperforms baselines, demonstrating that specialized supervision is essential for building trustworthy agents.

[This paper was initially published in PHME conference in 2016, selected for further publication in International Journal of Prognostics and Health Management.] This paper describes an Autoregressive Partially-hidden Markov model (ARPHMM) for fault detection and prognostics of equipments based on sensors' data. It is a particular dynamic Bayesian network that allows to represent the dynamics of a system by means of a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) and an autoregressive (AR) process. The Markov chain assumes that the system is switching back and forth between internal states while the AR process ensures a temporal coherence on sensor measurements. A sound learning procedure of standard ARHMM based on maximum likelihood allows to iteratively estimate all parameters simultaneously. This paper suggests a modification of the learning procedure considering that one may have prior knowledge about the structure which becomes partially hidden. The integration of the prior is based on the Theory of Weighted Distributions which is compatible with the Expectation-Maximization algorithm in the sense that the convergence properties are still satisfied. We show how to apply this model to estimate the remaining useful life based on health indicators. The autoregressive parameters can indeed be used for prediction while the latent structure can be used to get information about the degradation level. The interest of the proposed method for prognostics and health assessment is demonstrated on CMAPSS datasets.

Wearable devices running Human Activity Recognition(HAR) on Inertial Measurement Units~(IMUs) waste energy by performing continuous classification for each window, even during long periods of unchanged activity. We address this with a lightweight change-detection gate: a non-parametric algorithm based on dynamic template matching that runs continuously at only approximately 16kFLOPs per step, requires no offline training, and does not need prior definition of target activity classes. The gate invokes the full HAR network only when it detects an activity change, reducing the computational load by over 67% in realistic monitoring settings. The algorithm is evaluated on smart glasses, smartwatch, and smartphone data, requiring only a brief device-specific calibration phase. The gate achieves 98% sensitivity on UCA-EHAR, ensuring no genuine activity transition is missed, while 75% specificity keeps unnecessary HAR invocations low. Results on WISDM are 97% sensitivity and 76% specificity, demonstrating robustness and flexibility to various settings.

Accurate remaining useful life (RUL) prediction hinges on the quality of health indicators (HIs), yet existing methods often fail to disentangle complex degradation mechanisms in multi-sensor systems or quantify uncertainty in HI reliability. This paper introduces a novel framework for HI construction, advancing three key contributions. First, we adapt Reconstruction along Projected Pathways (RaPP) as a health indicator (HI) for RUL prediction for the first time, showing that it outperforms traditional reconstruction error metrics. Second, we show that augmenting RaPP-derived HIs with aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty quantification (UQ) via Monte Carlo dropout and probabilistic latent spaces- significantly improves RUL-prediction robustness. Third, and most critically, we propose indicator groups, a paradigm that isolates sensor subsets to model system-specific degradations, giving rise to our novel method, I-GLIDE which enables interpretable, mechanism-specific diagnostics. Evaluated on data sourced from aerospace and manufacturing systems, our approach achieves marked improvements in accuracy and generalizability compared to state-of-the-art HI methods while providing actionable insights into system failure pathways. This work bridges the gap between anomaly detection and prognostics, offering a principled framework for uncertainty-aware degradation modeling in complex systems.

Continuous-time event sequences play a vital role in real-world domains such as healthcare, finance, online shopping, social networks, and so on. To model such data, temporal point processes (TPPs) have emerged as the most natural and competitive models, making a significant impact in both academic and application communities. Despite the emergence of many powerful models in recent years, there hasn't been a central benchmark for these models and future research endeavors. This lack of standardization impedes researchers and practitioners from comparing methods and reproducing results, potentially slowing down progress in this field. In this paper, we present EasyTPP, the first central repository of research assets (e.g., data, models, evaluation programs, documentations) in the area of event sequence modeling. Our EasyTPP makes several unique contributions to this area: a unified interface of using existing datasets and adding new datasets; a wide range of evaluation programs that are easy to use and extend as well as facilitate reproducible research; implementations of popular neural TPPs, together with a rich library of modules by composing which one could quickly build complex models. All the data and implementation can be found at https://github.com/ant-research/EasyTemporalPointProcess. We will actively maintain this benchmark and welcome contributions from other researchers and practitioners. Our benchmark will help promote reproducible research in this field, thus accelerating research progress as well as making more significant real-world impacts.

Facing climate change, the already limited availability of drinking water will decrease in the future rendering drinking water an increasingly scarce resource. Considerable amounts of it are lost through leakages in water transportation and distribution networks. Thus, anomaly detection and localization, in particular for leakages, are crucial but challenging tasks due to the complex interactions and changing demands in water distribution networks. In this work, we analyze the effects of anomalies on the dynamics of critical infrastructure systems by modeling the networks employing Bayesian networks. We then discuss how the problem is connected to and can be considered through the lens of concept drift. In particular, we argue that model-based explanations of concept drift are a promising tool for localizing anomalies given limited information about the network. The methodology is experimentally evaluated using realistic benchmark scenarios. To showcase that our methodology applies to critical infrastructure more generally, in addition to considering leakages and sensor faults in water systems, we showcase the suitability of the derived technique to localize sensor faults in power systems.

The emergence and impact of tipping points have garnered significant interest in both the social and natural sciences. Despite widespread recognition of the importance of feedbacks between human and natural systems, it is often assumed that the observed nonlinear dynamics in these coupled systems rests within either underlying human or natural processes, rather than the rates at which they interact. Using adoption of agricultural diversification practices as a case study, we show how two stable management paradigms (one dominated by conventional, homogeneous practices, the other by diversified practices) can emerge purely from temporal feedbacks between human decisions and ecological responses. We explore how this temporal mechanism of tipping points provides insight into designing more effective interventions that promote farmers transitions towards sustainable agriculture. Moreover, our flexible modeling framework could be applied to other cases to provide insight into numerous questions in social-ecological systems research and environmental policy.

In mobile telecommunications, alarms act as early warning signals. They are triggered when a cell, the basic unit of radio coverage, shuts down or behaves abnormally. This signals a degradation in service quality, which directly affects the customer experience. To fix the issue, operators rely on preset thresholds to decide when an engineer should be sent out. In practice, these thresholds are set manually and remain fixed regardless of the time of day, traffic levels, or overall network conditions. This often leads to serious faults slipping through during busy hours, while minor issues can cause unnecessary callouts when the network is quiet. This paper presents a machine learning framework that automatically predicts four alarm thresholds, audit window duration, inactive time limit, total fluctuation count, and per hour fluctuation limit, from live network behavior. Since no ground truth labels exist for thresholds, we introduce a percentile guided label derivation strategy and evaluate four models on an anonymized dataset of 10,648 cells across three vendors and nine regions from a real 4G network, comprising a Gradient Boosted Trees baseline, a CNN-BiLSTM with attention, the proposed PCTN, and an iTransformer. PCTN performs the best overall with respect to three of the four targets, outperforming a state-of-the-art iTransformer while using 83 percent fewer parameters. Its mixed output heads and dynamic alpha mechanism produce thresholds that are both accurate and interpretable, allowing operators to inspect and adjust the learned policy without retraining. All comparisons are statistically significant at p < 0.001. The framework undergoes daily retraining using new data, which enables the thresholds to constantly adjust to changes in the network.

Regulatory compliance auditing across diverse industrial domains requires heightened quality assurance and traceability. Present manual and intermittent approaches to such auditing yield significant challenges, potentially leading to oversights in the monitoring process. To address these issues, we introduce a real-time, multi-modal sensing system employing 3D time-of-flight and RGB cameras, coupled with unsupervised learning techniques on edge AI devices. This enables continuous object tracking thereby enhancing efficiency in record-keeping and minimizing manual interventions. While we validate the system in a knife sanitization context within agrifood facilities, emphasizing its prowess against occlusion and low-light issues with RGB cameras, its potential spans various industrial monitoring settings.

Modern enterprises generate vast streams of time series metrics when monitoring complex systems, known as observability data. Unlike conventional time series from domains such as weather, observability data are zero-inflated, highly stochastic, and exhibit minimal temporal structure. Despite their importance, observability datasets are underrepresented in public benchmarks due to proprietary restrictions. Existing datasets are often anonymized and normalized, removing scale information and limiting their use for tasks beyond forecasting, such as anomaly detection, root-cause analysis, and multi-modal reasoning. To address this gap, we introduce TelecomTS, a large-scale observability dataset derived from a 5G telecommunications network. TelecomTS features heterogeneous, de-anonymized covariates with explicit scale information and supports a suite of downstream tasks, including anomaly detection, root-cause analysis, and a question-answering benchmark requiring multi-modal reasoning. Benchmarking state-of-the-art time series, language, and reasoning models reveals that existing approaches struggle with the abrupt, noisy, and high-variance dynamics of observability data. Our experiments also underscore the importance of preserving covariates' absolute scale, emphasizing the need for foundation time series models that natively leverage scale information for practical observability applications.

Building-change detection underpins many important applications, especially in the military and crisis-management domains. Recent methods used for change detection have shifted towards deep learning, which depends on the quality of its training data. The assembly of large-scale annotated satellite imagery datasets is therefore essential for global building-change surveillance. Existing datasets almost exclusively offer near-nadir viewing angles. This limits the range of changes that can be detected. By offering larger observation ranges, the scroll imaging mode of optical satellites presents an opportunity to overcome this restriction. This paper therefore introduces S2Looking, a building-change-detection dataset that contains large-scale side-looking satellite images captured at various off-nadir angles. The dataset consists of 5000 bitemporal image pairs of rural areas and more than 65,920 annotated instances of changes throughout the world. The dataset can be used to train deep-learning-based change-detection algorithms. It expands upon existing datasets by providing (1) larger viewing angles; (2) large illumination variances; and (3) the added complexity of rural images. To facilitate {the} use of the dataset, a benchmark task has been established, and preliminary tests suggest that deep-learning algorithms find the dataset significantly more challenging than the closest-competing near-nadir dataset, LEVIR-CD+. S2Looking may therefore promote important advances in existing building-change-detection algorithms. The dataset is available at https://github.com/S2Looking/.

Deploying LLMs raises two coupled challenges: (1) monitoring - estimating where a model underperforms as traffic and domains drift - and (2) improvement - prioritizing data acquisition to close the largest performance gaps. We test whether an inference-time signal can estimate slice-level accuracy under domain shift. For each response, we compute an output-entropy profile from final-layer next-token probabilities (from top-k logprobs) and summarize it with eleven statistics. A lightweight classifier predicts instance correctness, and averaging predicted probabilities yields a domain-level accuracy estimate. We evaluate on ten STEM reasoning benchmarks with exhaustive train/test compositions (k in {1,2,3,4}; all "10 choose k" combinations), across nine LLMs from six families (3B-20B). Estimates often track held-out benchmark accuracy, and several models show near-monotonic ordering of domains. Output-entropy profiles are thus an accessible signal for scalable monitoring and for targeting data acquisition.

We present a unified framework capable of solving a broad range of 3D tasks. Our approach features a stateful recurrent model that continuously updates its state representation with each new observation. Given a stream of images, this evolving state can be used to generate metric-scale pointmaps (per-pixel 3D points) for each new input in an online fashion. These pointmaps reside within a common coordinate system, and can be accumulated into a coherent, dense scene reconstruction that updates as new images arrive. Our model, called CUT3R (Continuous Updating Transformer for 3D Reconstruction), captures rich priors of real-world scenes: not only can it predict accurate pointmaps from image observations, but it can also infer unseen regions of the scene by probing at virtual, unobserved views. Our method is simple yet highly flexible, naturally accepting varying lengths of images that may be either video streams or unordered photo collections, containing both static and dynamic content. We evaluate our method on various 3D/4D tasks and demonstrate competitive or state-of-the-art performance in each. Project Page: https://cut3r.github.io/

Many smart grid applications involve data mining, clustering, classification, identification, and anomaly detection, among others. These applications primarily depend on the measurement of similarity, which is the distance between different time series or subsequences of a time series. The commonly used time series distance measures, namely Euclidean Distance (ED) and Dynamic Time Warping (DTW), do not quantify the flexible nature of electricity usage data in terms of temporal dynamics. As a result, there is a need for a new distance measure that can quantify both the amplitude and temporal changes of electricity time series for smart grid applications, e.g., demand response and load profiling. This paper introduces a novel distance measure to compare electricity usage patterns. The method consists of two phases that quantify the effort required to reshape one time series into another, considering both amplitude and temporal changes. The proposed method is evaluated against ED and DTW using real-world data in three smart grid applications. Overall, the proposed measure outperforms ED and DTW in accurately identifying the best load scheduling strategy, anomalous days with irregular electricity usage, and determining electricity users' behind-the-meter (BTM) equipment.

Frontier large language model training consumes massive accelerator fleets and long wall-clock computation, making stability failures costly when they occur. After a numerical or a hyperparameter fault has already destabilized the training dynamics, it may continue for thousands of steps while loss and gradient norms still appear normal. We study mechanism-driven detection of training instability by deriving internal monitors from the functional role of each critical module and from the earliest computational sites where failures are expected to produce measurable signatures. For low-precision flash attention, we monitor the spectral entropy of a QK bilinear decomposition, whose first-order term becomes abnormal before the loss fully collapses. For MoE routers, we derive indicators from their role in expert selection. Our fault-injection experiments on low-precision attention, large learning-rate, and combined faults show that these signals provide distinct signatures for different failures, triggering thousands of steps before loss divergence.

Our understanding of the temporal dynamics of the Earth's surface has been advanced by deep vision models, which often require lots of labeled multi-temporal images for training. However, collecting, preprocessing, and annotating multi-temporal remote sensing images at scale is non-trivial since it is expensive and knowledge-intensive. In this paper, we present change data generators based on generative models, which are cheap and automatic, alleviating these data problems. Our main idea is to simulate a stochastic change process over time. We describe the stochastic change process as a probabilistic graphical model (GPCM), which factorizes the complex simulation problem into two more tractable sub-problems, i.e., change event simulation and semantic change synthesis. To solve these two problems, we present Changen2, a GPCM with a resolution-scalable diffusion transformer which can generate time series of images and their semantic and change labels from labeled or unlabeled single-temporal images. Changen2 is a generative change foundation model that can be trained at scale via self-supervision, and can produce change supervisory signals from unlabeled single-temporal images. Unlike existing foundation models, Changen2 synthesizes change data to train task-specific foundation models for change detection. The resulting model possesses inherent zero-shot change detection capabilities and excellent transferability. Experiments suggest Changen2 has superior spatiotemporal scalability, e.g., Changen2 model trained on 256^2 pixel single-temporal images can yield time series of any length and resolutions of 1,024^2 pixels. Changen2 pre-trained models exhibit superior zero-shot performance (narrowing the performance gap to 3% on LEVIR-CD and approximately 10% on both S2Looking and SECOND, compared to fully supervised counterparts) and transferability across multiple types of change tasks.

Leaderboards rank frontier models on independent axes but do not reveal whether capabilities reinforce or trade off across releases -- and at the frontier, this interaction is the more informative signal. We decompose paired SWE-bench and GPQA Diamond scores into a population coupling trend and per-release residual (h-field) that diagnoses capability emphasis and identifies which measurement or stress test is most informative next. Across 34 models from 10 labs (2024--2026), capabilities cooperate (r = +0.72, p < 10^{-6}), but cooperation varies by lab and over time: DeepSeek reversed from reasoning-rich to coding-first (h: +11.2 to -4.7, 15.9-pp swing); Google maintains consistent reasoning emphasis; Anthropic oscillates between coding excursions and recovery. Cooperation is not static -- it cascades. Six open-weight architectures confirm a second capability transition at 30--72B, and SWE-bench is now saturating while HLE and instruction-following retain discriminatory spread -- signaling the next axis rotation. We provide a three-level playbook (locate, diagnose, rotate), a per-lab measurement-priority table, and seven falsifiable predictions with timestamped criteria for the next 12 months of frontier releases. Per-lab coupling slopes vary 5times (Google 1.15 vs. DeepSeek 0.23), quantifying how efficiently each recipe converts coding gains into reasoning. Five April 2026 releases confirm the diagnostic out of sample (r rises from +0.72 to +0.75). An interactive dashboard provides phase classification with actionable recommendations, h-field diagnostics, per-lab coupling trajectories, ODE-based scaling predictions, benchmark rotation guidance, self-steering demo, and live tracking of all seven predictions: https://zehenlabs.com/cape/.

Recently, there has been increasing interest in multimodal applications that integrate text with other modalities, such as images, audio and video, to facilitate natural language interactions with multimodal AI systems. While applications involving standard modalities have been extensively explored, there is still a lack of investigation into specific data modalities such as remote sensing (RS) data. Despite the numerous potential applications of RS data, including environmental protection, disaster monitoring and land planning, available solutions are predominantly focused on specific tasks like classification, captioning and retrieval. These solutions often overlook the unique characteristics of RS data, such as its capability to systematically provide information on the same geographical areas over time. This ability enables continuous monitoring of changes in the underlying landscape. To address this gap, we propose a novel foundation model for bi-temporal RS image pairs, in the context of change detection analysis, leveraging Contrastive Learning and the LEVIR-CC dataset for both captioning and text-image retrieval. By jointly training a contrastive encoder and captioning decoder, our model add text-image retrieval capabilities, in the context of bi-temporal change detection, while maintaining captioning performances that are comparable to the state of the art. We release the source code and pretrained weights at: https://github.com/rogerferrod/RSICRC.

Longitudinal health agents must reason across multi-source trajectories that combine continuous device streams, sparse clinical exams, and episodic life events - yet evaluating them is hard: real-world data cannot be released at scale, and temporally grounded attribution questions seldom admit definitive answers without structured ground truth. We present ESL-Bench, an event-driven synthesis framework and benchmark providing 100 synthetic users, each with a 1-5 year trajectory comprising a health profile, a multi-phase narrative plan, daily device measurements, periodic exam records, and an event log with explicit per-indicator impact parameters. Each indicator follows a baseline stochastic process driven by discrete events with sigmoid-onset, exponential-decay kernels under saturation and projection constraints; a hybrid pipeline delegates sparse semantic artifacts to LLM-based planning and dense indicator dynamics to algorithmic simulation with hard physiological bounds. Users are each paired with 100 evaluation queries across five dimensions - Lookup, Trend, Comparison, Anomaly, Explanation - stratified into Easy, Medium, and Hard tiers, with all ground-truth answers programmatically computable from the recorded event-indicator relationships. Evaluating 13 methods spanning LLMs with tools, DB-native agents, and memory-augmented RAG, we find that DB agents (48-58%) substantially outperform memory RAG baselines (30-38%), with the gap concentrated on Comparison and Explanation queries where multi-hop reasoning and evidence attribution are required.

Reasoning failures in large language models (LLMs) are typically measured only at the end of a generation, yet many failures manifest as a process-level breakdown: the model "loses the thread" mid-reasoning. We study whether such breakdowns are detectable from inference-time observables available in standard APIs (token log probabilities), without any training or fine-tuning. We define a simple instability signal that combines consecutive-step distributional shift (JSD) and uncertainty (entropy), summarize each trace by its peak instability strength, and show that this signal reliably predicts failure. Across GSM8K and HotpotQA, instability strength predicts wrong answers with above-chance AUC and yields monotonic bucket-level accuracy decline at scale across model sizes. Crucially, we show that instability is not uniformly harmful: early instability can reflect subsequent stabilization and a correct final answer (corrective instability), whereas late instability is more often followed by failure (destructive instability), even at comparable peak magnitudes, indicating that recoverability depends not only on how strongly the distribution changes but also on when such changes occur relative to the remaining decoding horizon. The method is model-agnostic, training-free, and reproducible, and is presented as a diagnostic lens rather than a corrective or control mechanism.

Accurate monitoring of forest disturbances is essential for understanding carbon dynamics and land management, yet traditional approaches typically rely on pixel-wise analysis of satellite time-series, ignoring spatial context. We present a deep learning framework that maps 38 years (1984-2022) of forest disturbance across the contiguous United States by modeling temporal trajectories and spatial neighborhoods simultaneously. By leveraging a vision transformer architecture, our approach effectively filters noise from weak supervision signals to produce spatially coherent disturbance maps. We perform exhaustive evaluations across multiple satellites (Landsat, Sentinel-1, Sentinel-2) and temporal windows (38 years and the more recent 6 years), validating performance against a novel, manually annotated validation dataset (n=300) and independent fire perimeter dataset (n=706). The results highlight the complexity of the task: while our spatio-temporal model demonstrates high precision (up to 98.2% for +-1 year detection on MTBS and up to 71.3% on the CONUS validation datasets, with F1-scores up to 75.8% and 47.3%, respectively) and effectively reduces spatial artifacts, it exhibits performance trade-offs across different disturbance regimes compared to pixel-wise baselines. Our method offers a promising foundation for consistent forest monitoring.

Generic Event Boundary Detection (GEBD) aims to interpret long-form videos through the lens of human perception. However, current GEBD methods require processing complete video frames to make predictions, unlike humans processing data online and in real-time. To bridge this gap, we introduce a new task, Online Generic Event Boundary Detection (On-GEBD), aiming to detect boundaries of generic events immediately in streaming videos. This task faces unique challenges of identifying subtle, taxonomy-free event changes in real-time, without the access to future frames. To tackle these challenges, we propose a novel On-GEBD framework, Estimator, inspired by Event Segmentation Theory (EST) which explains how humans segment ongoing activity into events by leveraging the discrepancies between predicted and actual information. Our framework consists of two key components: the Consistent Event Anticipator (CEA), and the Online Boundary Discriminator (OBD). Specifically, the CEA generates a prediction of the future frame reflecting current event dynamics based solely on prior frames. Then, the OBD measures the prediction error and adaptively adjusts the threshold using statistical tests on past errors to capture diverse, subtle event transitions. Experimental results demonstrate that Estimator outperforms all baselines adapted from recent online video understanding models and achieves performance comparable to prior offline-GEBD methods on the Kinetics-GEBD and TAPOS datasets.

As AI systems built from multiple language-model agents become more common, they are increasingly used to make decisions together: discussing, negotiating, and acting on shared tasks. While individual agents may appear well-aligned when tested on their own, problems can arise from how they interact with one another. We introduce the Arbiter, an agent designed to monitor multi-agent conversations in real time and identify which participants may be behaving in misaligned ways. The Arbiter operates under a limited "inspection budget", meaning it must decide carefully how to use its resources. As it observes a conversation step by step, it can choose to wait, question a participant, examine internal information such as system prompts or reasoning traces, or log concerning behavior. At the end, it produces a report identifying the likely source of misalignment. We evaluate the Arbiter across five conversation conditions, ranging from risky financial advice model organisms to evaluation-aware and colluding agents, we test five tool configurations of increasing capability and two backbone models. We find that the Arbiter reliably detects misaligned agents well before the end of the conversation, with active inspection tools improving both detection accuracy and speed. Weight-induced misalignment proves hardest to detect, while instruction-induced misalignment is identified reliably even under passive observation. The logging tool exhibits a dual effect, improving recall at the cost of precision. These results suggest that continual, budget-aware monitoring can effectively catch misalignment, and that overseeing multi-agent systems may require treating the auditor as an active participant in the process. The code is available at https://github.com/aisilab/arbiter.

This paper presents a novel end-to-end framework for closed-form computation and visualization of critical point uncertainty in 2D uncertain scalar fields. Critical points are fundamental topological descriptors used in the visualization and analysis of scalar fields. The uncertainty inherent in data (e.g., observational and experimental data, approximations in simulations, and compression), however, creates uncertainty regarding critical point positions. Uncertainty in critical point positions, therefore, cannot be ignored, given their impact on downstream data analysis tasks. In this work, we study uncertainty in critical points as a function of uncertainty in data modeled with probability distributions. Although Monte Carlo (MC) sampling techniques have been used in prior studies to quantify critical point uncertainty, they are often expensive and are infrequently used in production-quality visualization software. We, therefore, propose a new end-to-end framework to address these challenges that comprises a threefold contribution. First, we derive the critical point uncertainty in closed form, which is more accurate and efficient than the conventional MC sampling methods. Specifically, we provide the closed-form and semianalytical (a mix of closed-form and MC methods) solutions for parametric (e.g., uniform, Epanechnikov) and nonparametric models (e.g., histograms) with finite support. Second, we accelerate critical point probability computations using a parallel implementation with the VTK-m library, which is platform portable. Finally, we demonstrate the integration of our implementation with the ParaView software system to demonstrate near-real-time results for real datasets.

Most benchmarks for causal inference over time series are observational, small, or domain-specific, leaving interventional and counterfactual estimation under-served exactly where it matters most, such as in healthcare, policy evaluation, and climate science. We introduce DoTime, an open, scalable, and theoretically grounded generator of multivariate temporal structural causal models (TSCMs) with interventions, released as the dotime PyPI package together with four frozen evaluation suites. Beyond existing work, it adds capabilities absent from prior generators: continuous-time intervention windows, counterfactual sampling modes with a positivity guard, regime-switching SCMs as a strict generalization of interrupted time series, non-stationary dynamics by construction with switching SCM parameters, and deterministic ramp and sinusoidal intervention profiles that place trends and structural breaks inside the evaluation window. Moreover, it demonstrates the suitability of the generator as a prior for a causal foundation model reference implementation. The released suites span a training-scale snapshot of 100{,}000 trajectories and eight named identification structures, each with exact ground truth: paired interventional trajectories from the same SCM throughout, and shared-noise counterfactuals in the continuous-time suite. We ship reference baseline implementations with an evaluation harness, and pose a falsifiable claim: interventional training buys a measurable direction-accuracy advantage over an observational model of identical capacity. It is tested across three training seeds per arm. Under structure-matched evaluation on held-out episodes, the interventional prior-fitted network's (PFN) gap is positive in every structure, trajectory length, and seed tested.

While agents are increasingly spending more resources, today agent cost is mostly measured only after execution. A Budget-Aware Agent (BAGEN) should treat budget as an active control signal, rather than a passive cost metric. We first systematically define budget estimation as internal budgets (from agent computation) and external budgets (from agent actions). We then formalize budget-awareness as progressive interval estimation: at each step of a plan, an agent should predict an upper and lower bound on remaining budget, and alert when completion is unlikely. Scoring with a rollout-replay protocol, we find consistent failure patterns on four environments and five frontier agents: (1) strong agents do not necessarily have strong budget-awareness, with correlation r=0.35. (2) frontier models are consistently over-optimistic, continue spending on tasks that are unlikely to succeed, instead of alerting the user early. (3) budget-aware signal is actionable and trainable. Early stop saves 28-64% tokens on failed trajectories, and SFT+RL strengthens early stop and alert behavior. (4) precise interval calibration remains challenging, with interval coverage capping at 47% after SFT+RL. Project page: https://ragen-ai.github.io/bagen/

Run the same LLM agent on the same task twice: do you get the same behavior? We find the answer is often no. In a study of 3,000 agent runs across three models (Llama 3.1 70B, GPT-4o, and Claude Sonnet 4.5) on HotpotQA, we observe that ReAct-style agents produce 2.0--4.2 distinct action sequences per 10 runs on average, even with identical inputs. More importantly, this variance predicts failure: tasks with consistent behavior (leq2 unique paths) achieve 80--92% accuracy, while highly inconsistent tasks (geq6 unique paths) achieve only 25--60%, a 32--55 percentage point gap depending on model. We trace variance to early decisions: 69% of divergence occurs at step 2, the first search query. Our results suggest that monitoring behavioral consistency during execution could enable early error detection and improve agent reliability.