Daily Papers

Weather forecasting models commonly use the average forecast skill for short-range forecasts. However, it does not necessarily imply skill in the tails of the weather distribution. Evaluating tail events requires a consistently defined target with broad spatial and temporal coverage. Disaster catalogs record societal consequences, but are sparse and reporting-dependent; climatological tails describe unusual weather without necessarily implying harm. We present TailWeather, a global 0.25-degree, land-only dataset derived from ERA5, covering 1981-2022 and extending into January 2023. It labels heatwaves, cold waves, heavy precipitation, and extreme wind daily, and meteorological drought monthly. Each event has an ordinal severity tier and a numerical intensity score referenced to the local 1991-2020 climate. The scores support alternative thresholds within their stored resolution and valid domain. Comparison with documented disasters shows greater impact enrichment towards stricter tails, with differences among hazards and substantial gaps in catalog coverage. Forecast examples illustrate how low average errors can coexist with weak event detection, particularly for wind. TailWeather provides a reusable physical target for studying and evaluating extremes, while complementing the information in disaster catalogs.

Sri Lanka's fisheries sector is important for jobs and food supply. Between 2019 and 2025, it faced several major problems at the same time, and how these events together affected fish production and prices is still not well understood. This study develops a framework to connect weather changes, major disruption events, fish production, and prices, with the goal of helping policymakers, traders, and supply chain managers make better decisions. Seasonal patterns are studied using STL decomposition. Spearman lag correlation is used to find delayed effects of climate on production. Interrupted Time Series (ITS) regression measures the impact of major events. SARIMAX models predict monthly production and prices. Hotspot detection identifies unusual patterns. The results show that marine and inland fisheries behave differently in terms of seasons and climate effects. Major disruptions caused different levels of impact, and in some cases, one sector helped compensate for another. These findings can support better planning, for example, improving infrastructure in high-risk areas, strengthening cold storage systems, and using early warning alerts for unusual events. Price forecasting tools should be used as decision-support tools, not as direct market signals.

We investigate BZT shocks and the QCD phase transition in the dense core of a cold quark star in beta equilibrium subject to the multicomponent van der Waals (MvdW) equation of state (EoS) as a model of internal structure. When this system is expressed in terms of multiple components, it can be used to explore the impact of a phase transition from a hadronic state to a quark plasma state with a complex clustering structure. The clustering can take the form of colored diquarks or triquarks and bound colorless meson, baryon, or hyperon states at the phase transition boundary. The resulting multicomponent EoS system is nonconvex, which can give rise to Bethe-Zel'dovich-Thompson (BZT) phase changing shock waves. Using the BZT shock wave condition we find constraints on the quark density and examine how this changes the tidal deformability of the compact core. These results are then combined with the TOV equations to find the resulting mass and radius relationship. These state are compared to recent astrophysical high-mass neutron star systems, which may provide evidence for a core that has undergone a quark gluon phase transition such as PSR 0943+10 or GW 190814.

Gravitational lensing is an invaluable probe of the nature of dark matter, and the structures it forms. Lensed gravitational waves in particular allow for unparalleled sensitivity to small scale structures within the lenses, due to the precise time resolution in combination with the continuous monitoring of the entire sky. In this work, we show two distinct ways of using strongly lensed gravitational waves to identify the presence of dark matter subhalos: {i)} through higher order caustics generating high relative magnification (mu_r > 2), short time delay image pairs that break the caustic universality relations of single dark matter halos, which occur for sim 1-10 percent of strongly lensed events in our cold dark matter models, and ii) through the presence of more than three highly magnified images, which occur for sim 0.01-1 percent of the same simulated events. We find that these results are highly sensitive to the concentrations of subhalos in our simulations, and more mildly to their number densities. The presence of low-mass subhalos increases the probability of observing wave-optics lensing in lensed gravitational waves, which is studied by solving the diffraction integral with the stationary phase approximation, as well as numerically. We also report distinct quantitative and qualitative differences in the distributions of relative magnifications and time delays for subhalo populations with increased number densities or concentrations. With the upcoming detection of strongly lensed events by ground- and space- based detectors, comparisons against these simulated distributions will provide insight into the nature of dark matter.

We present MindLab Toolkit (MinT), a managed infrastructure system for Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) post-training and online serving. MinT targets a setting where many trained policies are produced over a small number of expensive base-model deployments. Instead of materializing each policy as a merged full checkpoint, MinT keeps the base model resident and moves exported LoRA adapter revisions through rollout, update, export, evaluation, serving, and rollback, hiding distributed training, serving, scheduling, and data movement behind a service interface. MinT scales this path along three axes. Scale Up extends LoRA RL to frontier-scale dense and MoE architectures, including MLA and DSA attention paths, with training and serving validated beyond 1T total parameters. Scale Down moves only the exported LoRA adapter, which can be under 1% of base-model size in rank-1 settings; adapter-only handoff reduces the measured step by 18.3x on a 4B dense model and 2.85x on a 30B MoE, while concurrent multi-policy GRPO shortens wall time by 1.77x and 1.45x without raising peak memory. Scale Out separates durable policy addressability from CPU/GPU working sets: a tensor-parallel deployment supports 10^6-scale addressable catalogs (measured single-engine sweeps through 100K) and thousand-adapter active waves at cluster scale, with cold loading treated as scheduled service work and packed MoE LoRA tensors improving live engine loading by 8.5-8.7x. MinT thus manages million-scale LoRA policy catalogs while training and serving selected adapter revisions over shared 1T-class base models.

Machine-learning (ML) models, such as the AIFS at the ECMWF, have revolutionised weather forecasting in recent years. We present an extension of the AIFS that jointly models the atmosphere and surface ocean, including ocean waves and sea ice. The primary objective of this extension is to enhance machine-learning medium-range forecasting and enable new use cases by expanding the weather state to better capture coupled surface processes. Our approach departs from traditional numerical models by not having two separate models for the atmosphere and marine components. The joint model instead learns correlations across the entire atmosphere-ocean interface in a component-agnostic way, and can exploit the expressive capacity of ML architectures to learn cross-component relationships directly from the data. We leverage tailored and targeted datasets and solve model design challenges such as missing values over land, multi-scale temporal dynamics, and physical realism of forecast fields and demonstrate the utility of loss scaling in guiding the learning process. We evaluate how representing the surface ocean affects medium-range weather forecasts. We also assess the model's ability to predict surface-ocean fields, including wave swell and tropical-cyclone cold wakes. For nearly all evaluated marine variables, we observe an improvement of approximately one day in forecast skill at medium-range lead times compared to physics-based models. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the model is robust to idealised initial conditions outside the training distribution and responds to them in a physically consistent way. Overall, our findings suggest that the joint AIFS modelling approach offers significant potential for combined atmosphere-ocean forecasting. Our work provides a solid foundation for future development of data-driven coupled Earth system models with greater flexibility and physical fidelity.

Blocking events are an important cause of extreme weather, especially long-lasting blocking events that trap weather systems in place. The duration of blocking events is, however, underestimated in climate models. Explainable Artificial Intelligence are a class of data analysis methods that can help identify physical causes of prolonged blocking events and diagnose model deficiencies. We demonstrate this approach on an idealized quasigeostrophic model developed by Marshall and Molteni (1993). We train a convolutional neural network (CNN), and subsequently, build a sparse predictive model for the persistence of Atlantic blocking, conditioned on an initial high-pressure anomaly. Shapley Additive ExPlanation (SHAP) analysis reveals that high-pressure anomalies in the American Southeast and North Atlantic, separated by a trough over Atlantic Canada, contribute significantly to prediction of sustained blocking events in the Atlantic region. This agrees with previous work that identified precursors in the same regions via wave train analysis. When we apply the same CNN to blockings in the ERA5 atmospheric reanalysis, there is insufficient data to accurately predict persistent blocks. We partially overcome this limitation by pre-training the CNN on the plentiful data of the Marshall-Molteni model, and then using Transfer Learning to achieve better predictions than direct training. SHAP analysis before and after transfer learning allows a comparison between the predictive features in the reanalysis and the quasigeostrophic model, quantifying dynamical biases in the idealized model. This work demonstrates the potential for machine learning methods to extract meaningful precursors of extreme weather events and achieve better prediction using limited observational data.

Elemental abundances in the solar corona differ from those in the photosphere, with low first ionization potential (FIP) elements being enhanced, a phenomenon known as the FIP effect. This enhancement is attributed to ponderomotive forces linked to magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) waves, particularly incompressible transverse waves. Our study investigates the relationship between coronal abundance fractionation and chromospheric transverse MHD waves by examining the spatial correlation between FIP fractionation and these waves and by analyzing their properties to test the ponderomotive force model. We used H alpha data from the Fast Imaging Solar Spectrograph at the Goode Solar Telescope to detect chromospheric transverse MHD waves and Si{X} (low FIP) and S{X} (high FIP) spectra from Hinode EUV Imaging Spectrometer to determine relative abundances in an active region. Extrapolated linear force free magnetic fields from Solar Dynamics Observatory/Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager magnetograms further linked the observed chromospheric waves with coronal composition. Approximately 400 wave packets were identified and characterized by their period, velocity amplitude, propagation speed, and direction. These incompressible or weakly compressible waves were mainly observed near loop footpoints in the sunspot penumbra and superpenumbral fibrils. Regions of high FIP fractionation coincided with closed magnetic fields where these waves were present, and low-frequency, downward-propagating waves comprised about 43/% of the total. Our results demonstrate a strong correlation between coronal abundance fractionation and chromospheric transverse MHD waves, supporting the view that the FIP effect is driven by the ponderomotive force from these waves.

We present a new approach to forecasting North Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) by recognizing that interannual variability primarily reflects amplitude changes in four dominant seasonal cycles. Our multivariate linear model simultaneously captures these amplitude-modulated seasonal cycles along with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), which naturally emerges as an intrinsic feature of the system rather than a separate phenomenon. Using sixteen-dimensional regression based on four spatially distributed time series per variable, the model delivers unprecedented forecast accuracy for both interannual amplitude modulations and PDO evolution, maintaining skill beyond 36 months -- a substantial improvement over current operational and research forecasts, including machine learning methods. Predictions initialized in 2024 project that the PDO will remain in its negative phase through late 2026, implying reduced likelihood of severe marine heatwaves in the eastern North Pacific during this period. These findings have direct implications for regional climate impacts, including storm tracks, precipitation patterns, and marine ecosystem health. By treating seasonal and interannual variability as coupled rather than independent processes, this framework advances our understanding of North Pacific climate dynamics and provides a powerful tool for stakeholders managing climate-sensitive resources and planning adaptation strategies in regions strongly influenced by North Pacific conditions.

We propose a self-consistent explanation of Rieger-type periodicities, the Schwabe cycle, and the Suess-de Vries cycle of the solar dynamo in terms of resonances of various wave phenomena with gravitational forces exerted by the orbiting planets. Starting on the high-frequency side, we show that the two-planet spring tides of Venus, Earth and Jupiter are able to excite magneto-Rossby waves which can be linked with typical Rieger-type periods. We argue then that the 11.07-year beat period of those magneto-Rossby waves synchronizes an underlying conventional alpha-Omega-dynamo, by periodically changing either the field storage capacity in the tachocline or some portion of the alpha-effect therein. We also strengthen the argument that the Suess-de Vries cycle appears as an 193-year beat period between the 22.14-year Hale cycle and a spin-orbit coupling effect related with the 19.86-year rosette-like motion of the Sun around the barycenter.

Repeated impacts of a droplet on a vertically forced bath can produce a growing Faraday-wave response under forcing conditions for which the corresponding initially undisturbed bath remains linearly stable. We investigate this mechanism using axisymmetric two-phase direct numerical simulations over a wide range of Reynolds and Weber numbers. The resulting phenomenological regime map identifies quasi-periodic, decaying, faint, and unstable-bath responses. Along the parameter path considered here, the transition to the unstable-bath regime occurs over a narrow range of Weber numbers and varies only weakly with Reynolds number. In the unstable regime, the bath develops a coherent subharmonic response at half the forcing frequency, while disturbances in the decaying regime remain broadband and weaken between successive rebounds. Bath-only simulations show that a finite-amplitude perturbation representative of droplet impact can seed the confined radial mode susceptible to parametric forcing, initiating a growing subharmonic response below the linear instability threshold of the initially flat bath. A reduced capillary-dominated model provides a scaling estimate for the impact-equivalent perturbation amplitude, and bath-only simulations initialized with these perturbations reproduce the bounded-to-growing transition observed in the coupled simulations. Floquet analysis of the finite cylindrical bath identifies the first axisymmetric Neumann mode as having the lowest subharmonic instability threshold. A time-resolved Bessel decomposition independently shows that the growing bath response is dominated by the same radial mode, while the droplet-induced subharmonic response projects predominantly onto this structure. These results identify a finite-amplitude route by which localized droplet impacts can access Faraday-wave dynamics below the linear onset threshold of an initially undisturbed bath.

The Sun's outer atmosphere, the corona, is maintained at mega-Kelvin temperatures and fills the heliosphere with a supersonic outflowing wind. The dissipation of magnetic waves and direct electric currents are likely to be the most significant processes for heating the corona, but a lively debate exists on their relative roles. Here, we suggest that the two are often intrinsically linked, since magnetic waves may trigger current dissipation, and impulsive reconnection can launch magnetic waves. We present a study of the first of these processes by using a 2D physics-based numerical simulation using the Adaptive Mesh Refined (AMR) Versatile Advection Code (VAC). Magnetic waves such as fast magnetoacoustic waves are often observed to propagate in the large-scale corona and interact with local magnetic structures. The present numerical simulations show how the propagation of magnetic disturbances towards a null point or separator can lead to the accumulation of the electric currents. Lorentz forces can laterally push and vertically stretch the magnetic fields, forming a current sheet with a strong magnetic-field gradient. The magnetic field lines then break and reconnect, and so contribute towards coronal heating. Numerical results are presented that support these ideas and support the concept of a symbiosis between waves and reconnection in heating the solar corona.

This work develops a theoretical model for steady thermodynamic and kinematic profiles for severe convective storm environments, building off of the two-layer static energy framework developed in Agard and Emanuel (2017). The model is phrased in terms of static energy, and it allows for independent variation of the boundary layer and free troposphere separated by a capping inversion. An algorithm is presented to apply the model to generate a sounding for numerical simulations of severe convective storms, and the model is compared and contrasted with that of Weisman and Klemp. The model is then fit to a case-study sounding associated with the 3 May 1999 tornado outbreak, and its potential utility is demonstrated via idealized numerical simulation experiments. A long-lived supercell is successfully simulated with the historical sounding but not the analogous theoretical sounding. Two types of example experiments are then performed that do simulate a long-lived supercell: 1) a semi-theoretical experiment in which a portion of the theoretical sounding is modified to match the real sounding (low-level moisture); 2) a fully-theoretical experiment in which a model physical parameter is modified (free-tropospheric relative humidity). Overall, the construction of this minimal model is flexible and amenable to additional modifications as needed. The model offers a novel framework that may be useful for testing how severe convective storms depend on the vertical structure of the hydrostatic environment, as well as for linking variability in these environments to the physical processes that produce them within the climate system.

The subpolar gyre is at risk of crossing a tipping point under future climate change associated with the collapse of deep convection. As such tipping can have significant climate impacts, it is important to understand the mechanisms at play and how they are represented in modern climate models. In this study we use causal inference to investigate the representation of several proposed mechanisms of subpolar gyre variability in CMIP6 models. As expected, an increase in sea surface salinity or a decrease in sea surface temperature leads to an increase in mixed layer depth in nearly all CMIP6 models due to an intensification of deep convection. However, the effect of convection to modify sea surface temperature due to re-stratification is less clear. In most models the deepening of the mixed layer caused by an increase of sea surface salinity, does result in a cooling of the water at intermediate depths. The feedback from the subsurface temperature through density to the strength of the subpolar gyre circulation is more ambiguous, with fewer models indicating a significant link. Those that do show a significant link, do not agree on its sign. The CMIP6 models that have the expected sign for the links from density to the subpolar gyre strength and on to sea surface salinity, are also the models in which abrupt shifts in the subpolar gyre region have been found in climate change scenario runs. One model (CESM2) contains all proposed mechanisms, with both a negative and delayed positive feedback loop being significant.

The coldest Y spectral type brown dwarfs are similar in mass and temperature to cool and warm (sim200 -- 400 K) giant exoplanets. We can therefore use their atmospheres as proxies for planetary atmospheres, testing our understanding of physics and chemistry for these complex, cool worlds. At these cold temperatures, their atmospheres are cold enough for water clouds to form, and chemical timescales increase, increasing the likelihood of disequilibrium chemistry compared to warmer classes of planets. JWST observations are revolutionizing the characterization of these worlds with high signal-to-noise, moderate resolution near- and mid-infrared spectra. The spectra have been used to measure the abundances of prominent species like water, methane, and ammonia; species that trace chemical reactions like carbon monoxide; and even isotopologues of carbon monoxide and ammonia. Here, we present atmospheric retrieval results using both published fixed-slit (GTO program 1230) and new averaged time series observations (GO program 2327) of the coldest known Y dwarf, WISE 0855-0714 (using NIRSpec G395M spectra), which has an effective temperature of sim 264 K. We present a detection of deuterium in an atmosphere outside of the solar system via a relative measurement of deuterated methane (CH_{3}D) and standard methane. From this, we infer the D/H ratio of a substellar object outside the solar system for the first time. We also present a well-constrained part-per-billion abundance of phosphine (PH_{3}). We discuss our interpretation of these results and the implications for brown dwarf and giant exoplanet formation and evolution.

The classical theory of the wind-driven surface layer of a rotating ocean closes the momentum balance with a local flux-gradient law, in which the turbulent stress at a given depth is proportional to the shear at that depth. It predicts a surface current deflected forty-five degrees from the wind, which exceeds most direct measurements. This study asks what follows when locality is relaxed. Beginning from the exact integral relation between turbulent stress and mean shear, and requiring the memory kernel to carry no preferred vertical scale, we obtain a power-law kernel and therefore a stress law of fractional order. The resulting equation cannot be posed on the velocity, because the fractional derivative of a bounded profile vanishes at the surface, so the wind stress cannot be applied, while the alternative definition of the derivative leaves the surface current unbounded. Posed on the stress instead, the problem is solvable in closed form in Mittag-Leffler functions at every order between zero and one. The surface deflection then depends on the closure order alone and is smaller than forty-five degrees throughout, whereas the depth-integrated transport stays exactly normal to the wind, because that constraint follows from the momentum balance and not from the closure. The far field decays as a power law rather than exponentially, and its amplitude vanishes in the local limit, so that limit is singular. Under a suddenly applied stress the surface transient decays algebraically. Three independent algorithms agree closely, and no observational or model data are used.

Interbasin exchange through the Indo-Pacific gateway supplies salt to the Atlantic and is widely invoked as a control on the stability of the Atlantic overturning circulation. We ask whether that control can act on the equilibrium structure of a conceptual thermohaline model. A closed five-box model with an exact salt invariant is constructed, comprising North Atlantic, upper-limb, Indian, Pacific, and deep reservoirs, with the return flow split between a warm route through the Indian reservoir and a cold route, together with an Indonesian Throughflow branch and an Agulhas retroflection. Adding the steady-state budgets of the gateway reservoirs shows that every internal exchange cancels, so the salt they export to the Atlantic is fixed by the net Atlantic freshwater export alone. This holds independently of the warm-route fraction, the throughflow, the retroflection, and how the export is apportioned among gateway reservoirs; across a parameter sweep the largest departure is of order ten to the minus eleven. The gateway therefore enters as a purely additive forcing and cannot renormalize the salt-advection feedback. Replacing the discrete transit lag by a gamma memory kernel leaves the equilibria unchanged but yields a closed-form threshold for oscillatory instability depending only on kernel shape. Broad memory is strongly stabilizing, and a discrete lag is the least stable member of the family. Because the instantaneous feedback vanishes at the fold, oscillatory instability always precedes the saddle-node, over an interval widening more than tenfold as memory sharpens. Gateways therefore appear to act on transient rather than equilibrium dynamics

Tracing the water snowline in low-mass young stellar objects (YSOs) is important because dust grain growth is promoted and the chemical composition varies at the water snowline, which influences planet formation and its properties. In protostellar envelopes, the water snowline can be estimated as a function of luminosity using a relation derived from radiative transfer models, and these predictions are consistent with observations. However, accurately estimating the water snowline in protoplanetary disks requires new relations that account for the disk structure. We present the relations between luminosity and water snowline using the dust continuum radiative transfer models with various density structures. We adopt two-dimensional density structures for an envelope-only model (Model E), an envelope+disk+cavity model (Model E+D), and a protoplanetary disk model (Model PPD). The relations between the water snowline, where T_dust = 100 K, and the total luminosity, ranging 0.1-1,000 solar luminosity, are well fitted by a power-law relation, R_snow=a * (L/L_solar)^p au. The factor a decreases with increasing disk density, while the power index p has values around 0.5 in all models. As the disk becomes denser, the water snowline forms at smaller radii even at the same luminosity, since dense dust hinders photon propagation. We also explore the effect of viscous heating on the water snowline. In Model PPD with viscous heating, the water snowline shifts outward by a few au up to 15 au, increasing the factor a and decreasing the power index p. In Model E+D with lower disk mass, the effect of viscous heating is negligible, indicating that the disk mass controls the effect. The discrepancy between our models and direct observations provides insights into the recent outburst event and the presence of a disk structure in low-mass YSOs.

Warm-sector heavy rainfall often occurs along the coast of South China, and it is usually localized and long-lasting, making it challenging to predict. High-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are increasingly used to better resolve topographic features and forecast such high-impact weather events. However, when the grid spacing becomes comparable to the length scales of convection, known as the gray zone, the turbulent eddies in the atmospheric boundary layer are only partially resolved and parameterized to some extent. Whether using a convection parameterization (CP) scheme in the gray zone remains controversial. Scale-aware CP schemes are developed to enhance the representation of convective transport within the gray zone. The multi-scale Kain-Fritsch (MSKF) scheme includes modifications that allow for its effective implementation at a grid resolution as high as 2 km. In recent years, there has been an increasing application of machine learning (ML) models to various domains of atmospheric sciences, including the replacement of physical parameterizations with ML models. This work proposes a multi-output bidirectional long short-term memory (Bi-LSTM) model as a replace the scale-aware MSKF CP scheme. The Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model is used to generate training and testing data over South China at a horizontal resolution of 5 km. Furthermore, the WRF model is coupled with the ML based CP scheme and compared with WRF simulations with original MSKF scheme. The results demonstrate that the Bi-LSTM model can achieve high accuracy, indicating the potential use of ML models to substitute the MSKF scheme in the gray zone.

Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery is the primary data type used for sea ice mapping due to its spatio-temporal coverage and the ability to detect sea ice independent of cloud and lighting conditions. Automatic sea ice detection using SAR imagery remains problematic due to the presence of ambiguous signal and noise within the image. Conversely, ice and water are easily distinguishable using multispectral imagery (MSI), but in the polar regions the ocean's surface is often occluded by cloud or the sun may not appear above the horizon for many months. To address some of these limitations, this paper proposes a new tool trained using concurrent multispectral Visible and SAR imagery for sea Ice Detection (ViSual\_IceD). ViSual\_IceD is a convolution neural network (CNN) that builds on the classic U-Net architecture by containing two parallel encoder stages, enabling the fusion and concatenation of MSI and SAR imagery containing different spatial resolutions. The performance of ViSual\_IceD is compared with U-Net models trained using concatenated MSI and SAR imagery as well as models trained exclusively on MSI or SAR imagery. ViSual\_IceD outperforms the other networks, with a F1 score 1.60\% points higher than the next best network, and results indicate that ViSual\_IceD is selective in the image type it uses during image segmentation. Outputs from ViSual\_IceD are compared to sea ice concentration products derived from the AMSR2 Passive Microwave (PMW) sensor. Results highlight how ViSual\_IceD is a useful tool to use in conjunction with PMW data, particularly in coastal regions. As the spatial-temporal coverage of MSI and SAR imagery continues to increase, ViSual\_IceD provides a new opportunity for robust, accurate sea ice coverage detection in polar regions.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) weather models are improving rapidly, and their forecasts are already competitive with long-established traditional Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP). To build confidence in this new methodology, it is critical that we understand how these predictions are generated. This is a huge challenge as these AI weather models remain largely black boxes. In other areas of Machine Learning (ML), mechanistic interpretability has emerged as a framework for understanding ML predictions by analysing the building blocks responsible for them. Here we present an open-source, highly adaptable tool which incorporates concepts from mechanistic interpretability. The tool organises internal latent representations from the model processor and allows for initial analyses, including cosine similarity and Principal Component Analysis (PCA), enabling the user to identify directions in latent space potentially associated with meteorological features. Applying our tool to the graph neural network GraphCast, we present preliminary case studies for mid-latitude synoptic-scale waves and specific humidity. These demonstrate the tool's ability to identify linear combinations of latent channels that appear to correspond to interpretable features.

The acceleration of the young solar wind is studied using the first 17 encounters of Parker Solar Probe. We identify wind intervals from different source regions: coronal hole (CH) interiors, streamers, and low Mach number boundary layers (LMBLs), i.e. the inner boundaries of coronal holes. We present their statistical trends in the acceleration process. Most of the observations can be reproduced by a two-fluid hydrodynamic model with realistic corona temperatures. In such a model, the solar wind is accelerated by the combined thermal pressures of protons and electrons,but it is mainly the difference in the proton pressure that leads to the difference in the solar wind speed. The proton pressure is the highest in the fastest CH wind, with a high initial proton temperature that decreases slowly. It is lower in the relatively slow LMBL wind, and the lowest in the slowest streamer wind. The proton temperature is quadratically correlated with the wind speed when scaled to the same distance. In contrast, the electron temperature shows no significant differences for different wind types or wind speeds, indicating more similar contributions from the electron pressure. The model gives reasonable locations for the sonic critical point, which is on average at 3.6-7.3 solar radii and can also extend to large distances when the proton temperature is extremely low, as in the LMBL wind. In addition to the thermal pressure, we raise the possibility that Alfvén waves may contribute to the solar wind acceleration, especially for the fast CH wind.

We introduce CAMulator version 1, an auto-regressive machine-learned (ML) emulator of the Community Atmosphere Model version 6 (CAM6) that simulates the next atmospheric state given the prescribed sea surface temperatures and incoming solar radiation. CAMulator explicitly conserves global dry air mass, moisture, and total atmospheric energy while remaining numerically stable over indefinite climate integrations. It successfully reproduces the annual CAM6 climatology and key modes of climate variability, including the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation, and the Pacific-North American pattern, with slightly muted variability. When forced with sea surface temperature (SST) outside the training distribution, CAMulator exhibits a systematic cold bias in high-latitude regions, particularly in boreal winter, likely due to the absence of interactive land and sea ice. Nonetheless, CAMulator achieves these results with a 350 times speedup over CAM6, making it an efficient alternative for generating large ensembles.

Cryovolcanism is a fundamental geodynamical process that has been observed on several icy moons. Europa stands out as a primary target for investigating potential cryovolcanic activity and its role in shaping icy moon surfaces. This work characterizes the physical state of ascending cryomagma and evaluates the relevance of terrestrial analogues to explain Europa's surface features. After investigating cryomagma depressurization, we developed CryoPy, a numerical model based on Smoothed-Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) for computational fluid dynamics and heat transfer. We simulated flow propagation and surface cooling using this model. Our simulations show that snow is a relevant physical analogue for cryolava, as the resulting flows closely match the smooth plains observed by Galileo in both extent and morphology. Additionally, we established the temporal thermal signatures of these events. Such active cryovolcanic events are within the detection limits of, primarily, the E-THEMIS infrared imager, providing a predictive framework for the Europa Clipper mission.