Daily Papers

Tabular Foundation Models have recently established the state of the art in supervised tabular learning, by leveraging pretraining to learn generalizable representations of numerical and categorical structured data. However, they lack native support for unstructured modalities such as text and image, and rely on frozen, pretrained embeddings to process them. On established Multimodal Tabular Learning benchmarks, we show that tuning the embeddings to the task improves performance. Existing benchmarks, however, often focus on the mere co-occurrence of modalities; this leads to high variance across datasets and masks the benefits of task-specific tuning. To address this gap, we introduce MulTaBench, a benchmark of 40 datasets, split equally between image-tabular and text-tabular tasks. We focus on predictive tasks where the modalities provide complementary predictive signal, and where generic embeddings lose critical information, necessitating Target-Aware Representations that are aligned with the task. Our experimental results demonstrate that the gains from target-aware representation tuning generalize across both text and image modalities, several tabular learners, encoder scales, and embedding dimensions. MulTaBench constitutes the largest image-tabular benchmarking effort to date, spanning high-impact domains such as healthcare and e-commerce. It is designed to enable the research of novel architectures which incorporate joint modeling and target-aware representations, paving the way for the development of novel Multimodal Tabular Foundation Models.

Embedding based product recommendations have gained popularity in recent years due to its ability to easily integrate to large-scale systems and allowing nearest neighbor searches in real-time. The bulk of studies in this area has predominantly been focused on similar item recommendations. Research on complementary item recommendations, on the other hand, still remains considerably under-explored. We define similar items as items that are interchangeable in terms of their utility and complementary items as items that serve different purposes, yet are compatible when used with one another. In this paper, we apply a novel approach to finding complementary items by leveraging dual embedding representations for products. We demonstrate that the notion of relatedness discovered in NLP for skip-gram negative sampling (SGNS) models translates effectively to the concept of complementarity when training item representations using co-purchase data. Since sparsity of purchase data is a major challenge in real-world scenarios, we further augment the model using synthetic samples to extend coverage. This allows the model to provide complementary recommendations for items that do not share co-purchase data by leveraging other abundantly available data modalities such as images, text, clicks etc. We establish the effectiveness of our approach in improving both coverage and quality of recommendations on real world data for a major online retail company. We further show the importance of task specific hyperparameter tuning in training SGNS. Our model is effective yet simple to implement, making it a great candidate for generating complementary item recommendations at any e-commerce website.

This study examines the integration of Contrastive Predictive Coding (CPC) with Spiking Neural Networks (SNN). While CPC learns the predictive structure of data to generate meaningful representations, SNN mimics the computational processes of biological neural systems over time. In this study, the goal is to develop a predictive coding model with greater biological plausibility by processing inputs and outputs in a spike-based system. The proposed model was tested on the MNIST dataset and achieved a high classification rate in distinguishing positive sequential samples from non-sequential negative samples. The study demonstrates that CPC can be effectively combined with SNN, showing that an SNN trained for classification tasks can also function as an encoding mechanism. Project codes and detailed results can be accessed on our GitHub page: https://github.com/vnd-ogrenme/ongorusel-kodlama/tree/main/CPC_SNN

Complementary-label learning (CLL) is a weakly-supervised learning paradigm that aims to train a multi-class classifier using only complementary labels, which indicate classes to which an instance does not belong. Despite numerous algorithmic proposals for CLL, their practical applicability remains unverified for two reasons. Firstly, these algorithms often rely on assumptions about the generation of complementary labels, and it is not clear how far the assumptions are from reality. Secondly, their evaluation has been limited to synthetically labeled datasets. To gain insights into the real-world performance of CLL algorithms, we developed a protocol to collect complementary labels from human annotators. Our efforts resulted in the creation of four datasets: CLCIFAR10, CLCIFAR20, CLMicroImageNet10, and CLMicroImageNet20, derived from well-known classification datasets CIFAR10, CIFAR100, and TinyImageNet200. These datasets represent the very first real-world CLL datasets, namely CLImage, which are publicly available at: https://github.com/ntucllab/CLImage\_Dataset. Through extensive benchmark experiments, we discovered a notable decrease in performance when transitioning from synthetically labeled datasets to real-world datasets. We investigated the key factors contributing to the decrease with a thorough dataset-level ablation study. Our analyses highlight annotation noise as the most influential factor in the real-world datasets. In addition, we discover that the biased-nature of human-annotated complementary labels and the difficulty to validate with only complementary labels are two outstanding barriers to practical CLL. These findings suggest that the community focus more research efforts on developing CLL algorithms and validation schemes that are robust to noisy and biased complementary-label distributions.

Predictive Coding (PC) is a theoretical framework in cognitive science suggesting that the human brain processes cognition through spatiotemporal prediction of the visual world. Existing studies have developed spatiotemporal prediction neural networks based on the PC theory, emulating its two core mechanisms: Correcting predictions from residuals and hierarchical learning. However, these models do not show the enhancement of prediction skills on real-world forecasting tasks and ignore the Precision Weighting mechanism of PC theory. The precision weighting mechanism posits that the brain allocates more attention to signals with lower precision, contributing to the cognitive ability of human brains. This work introduces the Cognitive Diffusion Probabilistic Models (CogDPM), which demonstrate the connection between diffusion probabilistic models and PC theory. CogDPM features a precision estimation method based on the hierarchical sampling capabilities of diffusion models and weight the guidance with precision weights estimated by the inherent property of diffusion models. We experimentally show that the precision weights effectively estimate the data predictability. We apply CogDPM to real-world prediction tasks using the United Kindom precipitation and ERA surface wind datasets. Our results demonstrate that CogDPM outperforms both existing domain-specific operational models and general deep prediction models by providing more proficient forecasting.

A reply to Drake (2013) "Early warning signals of stochastic switching" http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2013.0686

Machine learning models, particularly deep neural networks, have demonstrated strong performance in classifying complex time series data. However, their black-box nature limits trust and adoption, especially in high-stakes domains such as healthcare. To address this challenge, we introduce UniCoMTE, a model-agnostic framework for generating counterfactual explanations for multivariate time series classifiers. The framework identifies temporal features that most heavily influence a model's prediction by modifying the input sample and assessing its impact on the model's prediction. UniCoMTE is compatible with a wide range of model architectures and operates directly on raw time series inputs. In this study, we evaluate UniCoMTE's explanations on a time series ECG classifier. We quantify explanation quality by comparing our explanations' comprehensibility to comprehensibility of established techniques (LIME and SHAP) and assessing their generalizability to similar samples. Furthermore, clinical utility is assessed through a questionnaire completed by medical experts who review counterfactual explanations presented alongside original ECG samples. Results show that our approach produces concise, stable, and human-aligned explanations that outperform existing methods in both clarity and applicability. By linking model predictions to meaningful signal patterns, the framework advances the interpretability of deep learning models for real-world time series applications.

Two principles: the complementary principle and the consensus principle are widely acknowledged in the literature of multi-view learning. However, the current design of multi-head self-attention, an instance of multi-view learning, prioritizes the complementarity while ignoring the consensus. To address this problem, we propose an enhanced multi-head self-attention (EMHA). First, to satisfy the complementary principle, EMHA removes the one-to-one mapping constraint among queries and keys in multiple subspaces and allows each query to attend to multiple keys. On top of that, we develop a method to fully encourage consensus among heads by introducing two interaction models, namely inner-subspace interaction and cross-subspace interaction. Extensive experiments on a wide range of language tasks (e.g., machine translation, abstractive summarization and grammar correction, language modeling), show its superiority, with a very modest increase in model size. Our code would be available at: https://github.com/zhengkid/EIT-Enhanced-Interactive-Transformer.

Masked time series modeling has recently gained much attention as a self-supervised representation learning strategy for time series. Inspired by masked image modeling in computer vision, recent works first patchify and partially mask out time series, and then train Transformers to capture the dependencies between patches by predicting masked patches from unmasked patches. However, we argue that capturing such patch dependencies might not be an optimal strategy for time series representation learning; rather, learning to embed patches independently results in better time series representations. Specifically, we propose to use 1) the simple patch reconstruction task, which autoencode each patch without looking at other patches, and 2) the simple patch-wise MLP that embeds each patch independently. In addition, we introduce complementary contrastive learning to hierarchically capture adjacent time series information efficiently. Our proposed method improves time series forecasting and classification performance compared to state-of-the-art Transformer-based models, while it is more efficient in terms of the number of parameters and training/inference time. Code is available at this repository: https://github.com/seunghan96/pits.

Mutual information (MI) is a fundamental measure of statistical dependence between two variables, yet accurate estimation from finite data remains notoriously difficult. No estimator is universally reliable, and common approaches fail in the high-dimensional, undersampled regimes typical of modern experiments. Recent machine learning-based estimators show promise, but their accuracy depends sensitively on dataset size, structure, and hyperparameters, with no accepted tests to detect failures. We close these gaps through a systematic evaluation of classical and neural MI estimators across standard benchmarks and new synthetic datasets tailored to challenging high-dimensional, undersampled regimes. We contribute: (i) a practical protocol for reliable MI estimation with explicit checks for statistical consistency; (ii) confidence intervals (error bars around estimates) that existing neural MI estimator do not provide; and (iii) a new class of probabilistic critics designed for high-dimensional, high-information settings. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our protocol with computational experiments, showing that it consistently matches or surpasses existing methods while uniquely quantifying its own reliability. We show that reliable MI estimation is sometimes achievable even in severely undersampled, high-dimensional datasets, provided they admit accurate low-dimensional representations. This broadens the scope of applicability of neural MI estimators and clarifies when such estimators can be trusted.

Predictive coding networks are neuroscience-inspired models with roots in both Bayesian statistics and neuroscience. Training such models, however, is quite inefficient and unstable. In this work, we show how by simply changing the temporal scheduling of the update rule for the synaptic weights leads to an algorithm that is much more efficient and stable than the original one, and has theoretical guarantees in terms of convergence. The proposed algorithm, that we call incremental predictive coding (iPC) is also more biologically plausible than the original one, as it it fully automatic. In an extensive set of experiments, we show that iPC constantly performs better than the original formulation on a large number of benchmarks for image classification, as well as for the training of both conditional and masked language models, in terms of test accuracy, efficiency, and convergence with respect to a large set of hyperparameters.

In reasoning tasks, even a minor error can cascade into inaccurate results, leading to suboptimal performance of large language models in such domains. Earlier fine-tuning approaches sought to mitigate this by leveraging more precise supervisory signals from human labeling, larger models, or self-sampling, although at a high cost. Conversely, we develop a method that avoids external resources, relying instead on introducing perturbations to the input. Our training approach randomly masks certain tokens within the chain of thought, a technique we found to be particularly effective for reasoning tasks. When applied to fine-tuning with GSM8K, this method achieved a 5% improvement in accuracy over standard supervised fine-tuning with a few codes modified and no additional labeling effort. Furthermore, it is complementary to existing methods. When integrated with related data augmentation methods, it leads to an average improvement of 3% improvement in GSM8K accuracy and 1% improvement in MATH accuracy across five datasets of various quality and size, as well as two base models. We further investigate the mechanisms behind this improvement through case studies and quantitative analysis, suggesting that our approach may provide superior support for the model in capturing long-distance dependencies, especially those related to questions. This enhancement could deepen understanding of premises in questions and prior steps. Our code is available at Github.

Complementary-label learning (CLL) is a weakly supervised learning paradigm for multiclass classification, where only complementary labels -- indicating classes an instance does not belong to -- are provided to the learning algorithm. Despite CLL's increasing popularity, previous studies highlight two main challenges: (1) inconsistent results arising from varied assumptions on complementary label generation, and (2) high barriers to entry due to the lack of a standardized evaluation platform across datasets and algorithms. To address these challenges, we introduce libcll, an extensible Python toolkit for CLL research. libcll provides a universal interface that supports a wide range of generation assumptions, both synthetic and real-world datasets, and key CLL algorithms. The toolkit is designed to mitigate inconsistencies and streamline the research process, with easy installation, comprehensive usage guides, and quickstart tutorials that facilitate efficient adoption and implementation of CLL techniques. Extensive ablation studies conducted with libcll demonstrate its utility in generating valuable insights to advance future CLL research.

We establish a new theoretical framework for learning under multi-class, instance-dependent label noise. This framework casts learning with label noise as a form of domain adaptation, in particular, domain adaptation under posterior drift. We introduce the concept of relative signal strength (RSS), a pointwise measure that quantifies the transferability from noisy to clean posterior. Using RSS, we establish nearly matching upper and lower bounds on the excess risk. Our theoretical findings support the simple Noise Ignorant Empirical Risk Minimization (NI-ERM) principle, which minimizes empirical risk while ignoring label noise. Finally, we translate this theoretical insight into practice: by using NI-ERM to fit a linear classifier on top of a self-supervised feature extractor, we achieve state-of-the-art performance on the CIFAR-N data challenge.

Automatic detection of phoneme or word-like units is one of the core objectives in zero-resource speech processing. Recent attempts employ self-supervised training methods, such as contrastive predictive coding (CPC), where the next frame is predicted given past context. However, CPC only looks at the audio signal's frame-level structure. We overcome this limitation with a segmental contrastive predictive coding (SCPC) framework that can model the signal structure at a higher level e.g. at the phoneme level. In this framework, a convolutional neural network learns frame-level representation from the raw waveform via noise-contrastive estimation (NCE). A differentiable boundary detector finds variable-length segments, which are then used to optimize a segment encoder via NCE to learn segment representations. The differentiable boundary detector allows us to train frame-level and segment-level encoders jointly. Typically, phoneme and word segmentation are treated as separate tasks. We unify them and experimentally show that our single model outperforms existing phoneme and word segmentation methods on TIMIT and Buckeye datasets. We analyze the impact of boundary threshold and when is the right time to include the segmental loss in the learning process.

In this paper, we investigate the challenges of complementary-label learning (CLL), a specialized form of weakly-supervised learning (WSL) where models are trained with labels indicating classes to which instances do not belong, rather than standard ordinary labels. This alternative supervision is appealing because collecting complementary labels is generally cheaper and less labor-intensive. Although most existing research in CLL emphasizes the development of novel loss functions, the potential of data augmentation in this domain remains largely underexplored. In this work, we uncover that the widely-used Mixup data augmentation technique is ineffective when directly applied to CLL. Through in-depth analysis, we identify that the complementary-label noise generated by Mixup negatively impacts the performance of CLL models. We then propose an improved technique called Intra-Cluster Mixup (ICM), which only synthesizes augmented data from nearby examples, to mitigate the noise effect. ICM carries the benefits of encouraging complementary label sharing of nearby examples, and leads to substantial performance improvements across synthetic and real-world labeled datasets. In particular, our wide spectrum of experimental results on both balanced and imbalanced CLL settings justifies the potential of ICM in allying with state-of-the-art CLL algorithms, achieving significant accuracy increases of 30% and 10% on MNIST and CIFAR datasets, respectively.

The widespread adoption of scalable mobile sensing has led to large amounts of time series data for real-world applications. A fundamental application is multivariate time series forecasting (MTSF), which aims to predict future time series values based on historical observations. Existing MTSF methods suffer from limited parameterization and small-scale training data. Recently, Large language models (LLMs) have been introduced in time series, which achieve promising forecasting performance but incur heavy computational costs. To solve these challenges, we propose TimeCMA, an LLM-empowered framework for time series forecasting with cross-modality alignment. We design a dual-modality encoding module with two branches, where the time series encoding branch extracts relatively low-quality yet pure embeddings of time series through an inverted Transformer. In addition, the LLM-empowered encoding branch wraps the same time series as prompts to obtain high-quality yet entangled prompt embeddings via a Pre-trained LLM. Then, we design a cross-modality alignment module to retrieve high-quality and pure time series embeddings from the prompt embeddings. Moreover, we develop a time series forecasting module to decode the aligned embeddings while capturing dependencies among multiple variables for forecasting. Notably, we tailor the prompt to encode sufficient temporal information into a last token and design the last token embedding storage to reduce computational costs. Extensive experiments on real data offer insight into the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed framework.

The brain understands the external world through an internal model that generates predictions and refines them based on prediction errors. A complete prediction specifies what will happen, when it will happen, and with what probability, which we refer to as a "prediction object". Existing models typically capture only what and when, omit probabilities, and rely on biologically-implausible algorithms. Here we show that a single population of spiking neurons can jointly encode the prediction object through a biologically grounded learning mechanism. We implement a heterogeneous Izhikevich spiking reservoir with readouts trained by an error-modulated, attention-gated three-factor Hebbian rule and test it on a novel paradigm that controls both the timing and probability of upcoming stimuli. By integrating real-time learning of "when" with offline consolidation of "what", the model encodes the complete prediction object, firing at the correct times with magnitudes proportional to the probabilities. Critically, it rapidly adapts to changes in both stimulus timing and probability, an ability that global least-squares methods such as FORCE lack without explicit resets. During learning, the model self-organizes its readout weights into near-orthogonal subspaces for "what" and "when," showing that multiplexed encoding arises naturally from generic recurrent dynamics under local, error-gated modulation. These results challenge the view that "what" and "when" predictions require separate modules, suggesting instead that mixed selectivity within shared populations supports flexible predictive cognition. The model also predicts phase-specific neuromodulation and overlapping neural subspaces, offering a parsimonious alternative to hierarchical predictive-coding accounts.

Large-scale pre-trained models (PTMs) such as BERT and GPT have recently achieved great success in Natural Language Processing and Computer Vision domains. However, the development of PTMs on healthcare time-series data is lagging behind.This underscores the limitations of the existing transformer-based architectures, particularly their scalability to handle large-scale time series and ability to capture long-term temporal dependencies. In this study, we present Timely Generative Pre-trained Transformer (TimelyGPT). TimelyGPT employs an extrapolatable position (xPos) embedding to encode trend and periodic patterns into time-series representations. It also integrates recurrent attention and temporal convolution modules to effectively capture global-local temporal dependencies. We evaluated TimelyGPT on two large-scale healthcare time series datasets corresponding to continuous biosignals and irregularly-sampled time series, respectively. Our experiments show that during pre-training, TimelyGPT excels in learning time-series representations from continuously monitored biosignals and irregularly-sampled time series data commonly observed in longitudinal electronic health records (EHRs). In forecasting continuous biosignals, TimelyGPT achieves accurate extrapolation up to 6,000 timesteps of body temperature during the sleep stage transition, given a short look-up window (i.e., prompt) containing only 2,000 timesteps. For irregularly-sampled time series, TimelyGPT with a proposed time-specific inference demonstrates high top recall scores in predicting future diagnoses using early diagnostic records, effectively handling irregular intervals between clinical records. Together, we envision TimelyGPT to be useful in a broad spectrum of health domains, including long-term patient health state forecasting and patient risk trajectory prediction.

We conjecture that hidden state vectors corresponding to individual input tokens encode information sufficient to accurately predict several tokens ahead. More concretely, in this paper we ask: Given a hidden (internal) representation of a single token at position t in an input, can we reliably anticipate the tokens that will appear at positions geq t + 2? To test this, we measure linear approximation and causal intervention methods in GPT-J-6B to evaluate the degree to which individual hidden states in the network contain signal rich enough to predict future hidden states and, ultimately, token outputs. We find that, at some layers, we can approximate a model's output with more than 48% accuracy with respect to its prediction of subsequent tokens through a single hidden state. Finally we present a "Future Lens" visualization that uses these methods to create a new view of transformer states.

It is known that human speech and certain animal vocalizations can convey meaningful content because we can decipher the content that a given utterance does convey. This paper explores an alternative approach to determining whether a signal is meaningful, one that analyzes only the signal itself and is independent of what the conveyed meaning might be. We devise a method that takes a waveform as input and outputs a score indicating its degree of `meaningfulness`. We cluster contiguous portions of the input to minimize the total description length, and then take the length of the code of the assigned cluster labels as meaningfulness score. We evaluate our method empirically, against several baselines, and show that it is the only one to give a high score to human speech in various languages and with various speakers, a moderate score to animal vocalizations from birds and orcas, and a low score to ambient noise from various sources.

Recently proposed self-supervised learning approaches have been successful for pre-training speech representation models. The utility of these learned representations has been observed empirically, but not much has been studied about the type or extent of information encoded in the pre-trained representations themselves. Developing such insights can help understand the capabilities and limits of these models and enable the research community to more efficiently develop their usage for downstream applications. In this work, we begin to fill this gap by examining one recent and successful pre-trained model (wav2vec 2.0), via its intermediate representation vectors, using a suite of analysis tools. We use the metrics of canonical correlation, mutual information, and performance on simple downstream tasks with non-parametric probes, in order to (i) query for acoustic and linguistic information content, (ii) characterize the evolution of information across model layers, and (iii) understand how fine-tuning the model for automatic speech recognition (ASR) affects these observations. Our findings motivate modifying the fine-tuning protocol for ASR, which produces improved word error rates in a low-resource setting.

Unsupervised pretraining, which learns a useful representation using a large amount of unlabeled data to facilitate the learning of downstream tasks, is a critical component of modern large-scale machine learning systems. Despite its tremendous empirical success, the rigorous theoretical understanding of why unsupervised pretraining generally helps remains rather limited -- most existing results are restricted to particular methods or approaches for unsupervised pretraining with specialized structural assumptions. This paper studies a generic framework, where the unsupervised representation learning task is specified by an abstract class of latent variable models Phi and the downstream task is specified by a class of prediction functions Psi. We consider a natural approach of using Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) for unsupervised pretraining and Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM) for learning downstream tasks. We prove that, under a mild ''informative'' condition, our algorithm achieves an excess risk of mathcal{O}(mathcal{C_Phi/m} + mathcal{C_Psi/n}) for downstream tasks, where C_Phi, C_Psi are complexity measures of function classes Phi, Psi, and m, n are the number of unlabeled and labeled data respectively. Comparing to the baseline of mathcal{O}(mathcal{C_{Phi circ Psi}/n}) achieved by performing supervised learning using only the labeled data, our result rigorously shows the benefit of unsupervised pretraining when m gg n and C_{Phicirc Psi} > C_Psi. This paper further shows that our generic framework covers a wide range of approaches for unsupervised pretraining, including factor models, Gaussian mixture models, and contrastive learning.

Speech patterns have been identified as potential diagnostic markers for neuropsychiatric conditions. However, most studies only compare a single clinical group to healthy controls, whereas clinical practice often requires differentiating between multiple potential diagnoses (multiclass settings). To address this, we assembled a dataset of repeated recordings from 420 participants (67 with major depressive disorder, 106 with schizophrenia and 46 with autism, as well as matched controls), and tested the performance of a range of conventional machine learning models and advanced Transformer models on both binary and multiclass classification, based on voice and text features. While binary models performed comparably to previous research (F1 scores between 0.54-0.75 for autism spectrum disorder, ASD; 0.67-0.92 for major depressive disorder, MDD; and 0.71-0.83 for schizophrenia); when differentiating between multiple diagnostic groups performance decreased markedly (F1 scores between 0.35-0.44 for ASD, 0.57-0.75 for MDD, 0.15-0.66 for schizophrenia, and 0.38-0.52 macro F1). Combining voice and text-based models yielded increased performance, suggesting that they capture complementary diagnostic information. Our results indicate that models trained on binary classification may learn to rely on markers of generic differences between clinical and non-clinical populations, or markers of clinical features that overlap across conditions, rather than identifying markers specific to individual conditions. We provide recommendations for future research in the field, suggesting increased focus on developing larger transdiagnostic datasets that include more fine-grained clinical features, and that can support the development of models that better capture the complexity of neuropsychiatric conditions and naturalistic diagnostic assessment.

This paper considers the problem of variable selection allowing for parameter instability. It distinguishes between signal and pseudo-signal variables that are correlated with the target variable, and noise variables that are not, and investigate the asymptotic properties of the One Covariate at a Time Multiple Testing (OCMT) method proposed by Chudik et al. (2018) under parameter insatiability. It is established that OCMT continues to asymptotically select an approximating model that includes all the signals and none of the noise variables. Properties of post selection regressions are also investigated, and in-sample fit of the selected regression is shown to have the oracle property. The theoretical results support the use of unweighted observations at the selection stage of OCMT, whilst applying down-weighting of observations only at the forecasting stage. Monte Carlo and empirical applications show that OCMT without down-weighting at the selection stage yields smaller mean squared forecast errors compared to Lasso, Adaptive Lasso, and boosting.

Deep learning-based music source separation has gained a lot of interest in the last decades. Most of the existing methods operate with either spectrograms or waveforms. Spectrogram based models learn suitable masks for separating magnitude spectrogram into different sources, and waveform-based models directly generate waveforms of individual sources. The two types of models have complementary strengths; the former is superior given harmonic sources such as vocals, while the latter demonstrates better results for percussion and bass instruments. In this work, we improved upon the state-of-the-art (SoTA) models and successfully combined the best of both worlds. The backbones of the proposed framework, dubbed Danna-Sep, are two spectrogram-based models including a modified X-UMX and U-Net, and an enhanced Demucs as the waveform-based model. Given an input of mixture, we linearly combined respective outputs from the three models to obtain the final result. We showed in the experiments that, despite its simplicity, Danna-Sep surpassed the SoTA models by a large margin in terms of Source-to-Distortion Ratio.

Time series play a fundamental role in many domains, capturing a plethora of information about the underlying data-generating processes. When a process generates multiple synchronized signals we are faced with multidimensional time series. In this context a fundamental problem is that of motif mining, where we seek patterns repeating twice with minor variations, spanning some of the dimensions. State of the art exact solutions for this problem run in time quadratic in the length of the input time series. We provide a scalable method to find the top-k motifs in multidimensional time series with probabilistic guarantees on the quality of the results. Our algorithm runs in time subquadratic in the length of the input, and returns the exact solution with probability at least 1-δ, where δ is a user-defined parameter. The algorithm is designed to be adaptive to the input distribution, self-tuning its parameters while respecting user-defined limits on the memory to use. Our theoretical analysis is complemented by an extensive experimental evaluation, showing that our algorithm is orders of magnitude faster than the state of the art.

Neurophysiological recordings such as electroencephalography (EEG) offer accessible and minimally invasive means of estimating physiological activity for applications in healthcare, diagnostic screening, and even immersive entertainment. However, these recordings yield high-dimensional, noisy time-series data that typically require extensive pre-processing and handcrafted feature extraction to reveal meaningful information. Recently, there has been a surge of interest in applying representation learning techniques from large pre-trained (foundation) models to effectively decode and interpret biosignals. We discuss the challenges posed for incorporating such methods and introduce BioCodec, an alternative representation learning framework inspired by neural codecs to capture low-level signal characteristics in the form of discrete tokens. Pre-trained on thousands of EEG hours, BioCodec shows efficacy across multiple downstream tasks, ranging from clinical diagnostic tasks and sleep physiology to decoding speech and motor imagery, particularly in low-resource settings. Additionally, we provide a qualitative analysis of codebook usage and estimate the spatial coherence of codebook embeddings from EEG connectivity. Notably, we also document the suitability of our method to other biosignal data, i.e., electromyographic (EMG) signals. Overall, the proposed approach provides a versatile solution for biosignal tokenization that performs competitively with state-of-the-art models. The source code and model checkpoints are shared.

Generating temporal data under conditions is crucial for forecasting, imputation, and generative tasks. Such data often has metadata and partially observed signals that jointly influence the generated values. However, existing methods face three key limitations: (1) they condition on either the metadata or observed values, but rarely both together; (2) they adopt either training-time approaches that fail to generalize to unseen scenarios, or inference-time approaches that ignore metadata; and (3) they suffer from trade-offs between generation speed and temporal coherence across time windows--choosing either slow but coherent autoregressive methods or fast but incoherent parallel ones. We propose WaveStitch, a novel diffusion-based method to overcome these hurdles through: (1) dual-sourced conditioning on both metadata and partially observed signals; (2) a hybrid training-inference architecture, incorporating metadata during training and observations at inference via gradient-based guidance; and (3) a novel pipeline-style paradigm that generates time windows in parallel while preserving coherence through an inference-time conditional loss and a stitching mechanism. Across diverse datasets, WaveStitch demonstrates adaptability to arbitrary patterns of observed signals, achieving 1.81x lower mean-squared-error compared to the state-of-the-art, and generates data up to 166.48x faster than autoregressive methods while maintaining coherence. Our code is available at: https://github.com/adis98/WaveStitch

Multimodal Large Language Models have demonstrated powerful cross-modal understanding and reasoning capabilities in general domains. However, in the electromagnetic (EM) domain, they still face challenges such as data scarcity and insufficient integration of domain knowledge. This paper proposes PReD, the first foundation model for the EM domain that covers the intelligent closed-loop of "perception, recognition, decision-making." We constructed a high-quality multitask EM dataset, PReD-1.3M, and an evaluation benchmark, PReD-Bench. The dataset encompasses multi-perspective representations such as raw time-domain waveform, frequency-domain spectrograms, and constellation diagrams, covering typical features of communication and radar signals. It supports a range of core tasks, including signal detection, modulation recognition, parameter estimation, protocol recognition, radio frequency fingerprint recognition, and anti-jamming decision-making. PReD adopts a multi-stage training strategy that unifies multiple tasks for EM signals. It achieves closed-loop optimization from end-to-end signal understanding to language-driven reasoning and decision-making, significantly enhancing EM domain expertise while maintaining general multimodal capabilities. Experimental results show that PReD achieves state-of-the-art performance on PReD-Bench constructed from both open-source and self-collected signal datasets. These results collectively validate the feasibility and potential of vision-aligned foundation models in advancing the understanding and reasoning of EM signals.

Electroencephalography (EEG) signals, known for convenient non-invasive acquisition but low signal-to-noise ratio, have recently gained substantial attention due to the potential to decode natural images. This paper presents a self-supervised framework to demonstrate the feasibility of learning image representations from EEG signals, particularly for object recognition. The framework utilizes image and EEG encoders to extract features from paired image stimuli and EEG responses. Contrastive learning aligns these two modalities by constraining their similarity. With the framework, we attain significantly above-chance results on a comprehensive EEG-image dataset, achieving a top-1 accuracy of 15.6% and a top-5 accuracy of 42.8% in challenging 200-way zero-shot tasks. Moreover, we perform extensive experiments to explore the biological plausibility by resolving the temporal, spatial, spectral, and semantic aspects of EEG signals. Besides, we introduce attention modules to capture spatial correlations, providing implicit evidence of the brain activity perceived from EEG data. These findings yield valuable insights for neural decoding and brain-computer interfaces in real-world scenarios. The code will be released on https://github.com/eeyhsong/NICE-EEG.

Discovering effective predictive signals, or ``alphas,'' from financial data with high dimensionality and extremely low signal-to-noise ratio remains a difficult open problem. Despite progress in deep learning, genetic programming, and, more recently, large language model (LLM)--based factor generation, existing approaches still explore only a narrow region of the vast alpha search space. Neural models tend to produce opaque and fragile patterns, while symbolic or formula-based methods often yield redundant or economically ungrounded expressions that generalize poorly. Although different in form, these paradigms share a key limitation: none can conduct broad, structured, and human-like exploration that balances logical consistency with creative leaps. To address this gap, we introduce the Cognitive Alpha Mining Framework (CogAlpha), which combines code-level alpha representation with LLM-driven reasoning and evolutionary search. Treating LLMs as adaptive cognitive agents, our framework iteratively refines, mutates, and recombines alpha candidates through multi-stage prompts and financial feedback. This synergistic design enables deeper thinking, richer structural diversity, and economically interpretable alpha discovery, while greatly expanding the effective search space. Experiments on A-share equities demonstrate that CogAlpha consistently discovers alphas with superior predictive accuracy, robustness, and generalization over existing methods. Our results highlight the promise of aligning evolutionary optimization with LLM-based reasoning for automated and explainable alpha discovery. All source code will be released.

We introduce a general self-supervised approach to predict the future outputs of a short-range sensor (such as a proximity sensor) given the current outputs of a long-range sensor (such as a camera); we assume that the former is directly related to some piece of information to be perceived (such as the presence of an obstacle in a given position), whereas the latter is information-rich but hard to interpret directly. We instantiate and implement the approach on a small mobile robot to detect obstacles at various distances using the video stream of the robot's forward-pointing camera, by training a convolutional neural network on automatically-acquired datasets. We quantitatively evaluate the quality of the predictions on unseen scenarios, qualitatively evaluate robustness to different operating conditions, and demonstrate usage as the sole input of an obstacle-avoidance controller. We additionally instantiate the approach on a different simulated scenario with complementary characteristics, to exemplify the generality of our contribution.

The sound effects that designers add to videos are designed to convey a particular artistic effect and, thus, may be quite different from a scene's true sound. Inspired by the challenges of creating a soundtrack for a video that differs from its true sound, but that nonetheless matches the actions occurring on screen, we propose the problem of conditional Foley. We present the following contributions to address this problem. First, we propose a pretext task for training our model to predict sound for an input video clip using a conditional audio-visual clip sampled from another time within the same source video. Second, we propose a model for generating a soundtrack for a silent input video, given a user-supplied example that specifies what the video should "sound like". We show through human studies and automated evaluation metrics that our model successfully generates sound from video, while varying its output according to the content of a supplied example. Project site: https://xypb.github.io/CondFoleyGen/

Electrocardiography (ECG) signal generation has been heavily explored using generative adversarial networks (GAN) because the implementation of 12-lead ECGs is not always feasible. The GAN models have achieved remarkable results in reproducing ECG signals but are only designed for multiple lead inputs and the features the GAN model preserves have not been identified-limiting the generated signals use in cardiovascular disease (CVD)-predictive models. This paper presents ECGNet which is a procedure that generates a complete set of 12-lead ECG signals from any single lead input using a GAN framework with a bidirectional long short-term memory (LSTM) generator and a convolutional neural network (CNN) discriminator. Cross and auto-correlation analysis performed on the generated signals identifies features conserved during the signal generation-i.e., features that can characterize the unique-nature of each signal and thus likely indicators of CVD. Finally, by using ECG signals annotated with the CVD-indicative features detailed by the correlation analysis as inputs for a CVD-onset-predictive CNN model, we overcome challenges preventing the prediction of multiple-CVD targets. Our models are experimented on 15s 12-lead ECG dataset recorded using MyoVista's wavECG. Functional outcome data for each patient is recorded and used in the CVD-predictive model. Our best GAN model achieves state-of-the-art accuracy with Frechet Distance (FD) scores of 4.73, 4.89, 5.18, 4.77, 4.71, and 5.55 on the V1-V6 pre-cordial leads respectively and shows strength in preserving the P-Q segments and R-peaks in the generated signals. To the best of our knowledge, ECGNet is the first to predict all of the remaining eleven leads from the input of any single lead.

We train an object detector built from convolutional neural networks to count interference fringes in elliptical antinode regions in frames of high-speed video recordings of transient oscillations in Caribbean steelpan drums illuminated by electronic speckle pattern interferometry (ESPI). The annotations provided by our model aim to contribute to the understanding of time-dependent behavior in such drums by tracking the development of sympathetic vibration modes. The system is trained on a dataset of crowdsourced human-annotated images obtained from the Zooniverse Steelpan Vibrations Project. Due to the small number of human-annotated images and the ambiguity of the annotation task, we also evaluate the model on a large corpus of synthetic images whose properties have been matched to the real images by style transfer using a Generative Adversarial Network. Applying the model to thousands of unlabeled video frames, we measure oscillations consistent with audio recordings of these drum strikes. One unanticipated result is that sympathetic oscillations of higher-octave notes significantly precede the rise in sound intensity of the corresponding second harmonic tones; the mechanism responsible for this remains unidentified. This paper primarily concerns the development of the predictive model; further exploration of the steelpan images and deeper physical insights await its further application.

Due to the distinctive characteristics of sensors, each modality exhibits unique physical properties. For this reason, in the context of multi-modal action recognition, it is important to consider not only the overall action content but also the complementary nature of different modalities. In this paper, we propose a novel network, named Modality Mixer (M-Mixer) network, which effectively leverages and incorporates the complementary information across modalities with the temporal context of actions for action recognition. A key component of our proposed M-Mixer is the Multi-modal Contextualization Unit (MCU), a simple yet effective recurrent unit. Our MCU is responsible for temporally encoding a sequence of one modality (e.g., RGB) with action content features of other modalities (e.g., depth and infrared modalities). This process encourages M-Mixer network to exploit global action content and also to supplement complementary information of other modalities. Furthermore, to extract appropriate complementary information regarding to the given modality settings, we introduce a new module, named Complementary Feature Extraction Module (CFEM). CFEM incorporates sepearte learnable query embeddings for each modality, which guide CFEM to extract complementary information and global action content from the other modalities. As a result, our proposed method outperforms state-of-the-art methods on NTU RGB+D 60, NTU RGB+D 120, and NW-UCLA datasets. Moreover, through comprehensive ablation studies, we further validate the effectiveness of our proposed method.

Autoregressive Predictive Coding (APC), as a self-supervised objective, has enjoyed success in learning representations from large amounts of unlabeled data, and the learned representations are rich for many downstream tasks. However, the connection between low self-supervised loss and strong performance in downstream tasks remains unclear. In this work, we propose Vector-Quantized Autoregressive Predictive Coding (VQ-APC), a novel model that produces quantized representations, allowing us to explicitly control the amount of information encoded in the representations. By studying a sequence of increasingly limited models, we reveal the constituents of the learned representations. In particular, we confirm the presence of information with probing tasks, while showing the absence of information with mutual information, uncovering the model's preference in preserving speech information as its capacity becomes constrained. We find that there exists a point where phonetic and speaker information are amplified to maximize a self-supervised objective. As a byproduct, the learned codes for a particular model capacity correspond well to English phones.

In the present research, we delve into the intricate realm of electroencephalogram (EEG) data analysis, focusing on sequence-to-sequence prediction of data across 32 EEG channels. The study harmoniously fuses the principles of applied chaos theory and dynamical systems theory to engender a novel feature set, enriching the representational capacity of our deep learning model. The endeavour's cornerstone is a transformer-based sequence-to-sequence architecture, calibrated meticulously to capture the non-linear and high-dimensional temporal dependencies inherent in EEG sequences. Through judicious architecture design, parameter initialisation strategies, and optimisation techniques, we have navigated the intricate balance between computational expediency and predictive performance. Our model stands as a vanguard in EEG data sequence prediction, demonstrating remarkable generalisability and robustness. The findings not only extend our understanding of EEG data dynamics but also unveil a potent analytical framework that can be adapted to diverse temporal sequence prediction tasks in neuroscience and beyond.

We investigate the possibility of forcing a self-supervised model trained using a contrastive predictive loss to extract slowly varying latent representations. Rather than producing individual predictions for each of the future representations, the model emits a sequence of predictions shorter than that of the upcoming representations to which they will be aligned. In this way, the prediction network solves a simpler task of predicting the next symbols, but not their exact timing, while the encoding network is trained to produce piece-wise constant latent codes. We evaluate the model on a speech coding task and demonstrate that the proposed Aligned Contrastive Predictive Coding (ACPC) leads to higher linear phone prediction accuracy and lower ABX error rates, while being slightly faster to train due to the reduced number of prediction heads.

Early warning signals have been proposed to forecast the possibility of a critical transition, such as the eutrophication of a lake, the collapse of a coral reef, or the end of a glacial period. Because such transitions often unfold on temporal and spatial scales that can be difficult to approach by experimental manipulation, research has often relied on historical observations as a source of natural experiments. Here we examine a critical difference between selecting systems for study based on the fact that we have observed a critical transition and those systems for which we wish to forecast the approach of a transition. This difference arises by conditionally selecting systems known to experience a transition of some sort and failing to account for the bias this introduces -- a statistical error often known as the Prosecutor's Fallacy. By analysing simulated systems that have experienced transitions purely by chance, we reveal an elevated rate of false positives in common warning signal statistics. We further demonstrate a model-based approach that is less subject to this bias than these more commonly used summary statistics. We note that experimental studies with replicates avoid this pitfall entirely.

Being able to predict what may happen in the future requires an in-depth understanding of the physical and causal rules that govern the world. A model that is able to do so has a number of appealing applications, from robotic planning to representation learning. However, learning to predict raw future observations, such as frames in a video, is exceedingly challenging -- the ambiguous nature of the problem can cause a naively designed model to average together possible futures into a single, blurry prediction. Recently, this has been addressed by two distinct approaches: (a) latent variational variable models that explicitly model underlying stochasticity and (b) adversarially-trained models that aim to produce naturalistic images. However, a standard latent variable model can struggle to produce realistic results, and a standard adversarially-trained model underutilizes latent variables and fails to produce diverse predictions. We show that these distinct methods are in fact complementary. Combining the two produces predictions that look more realistic to human raters and better cover the range of possible futures. Our method outperforms prior and concurrent work in these aspects.

Reasoning from sequences of raw sensory data is a ubiquitous problem across fields ranging from medical devices to robotics. These problems often involve using long sequences of raw sensor data (e.g. magnetometers, piezoresistors) to predict sequences of desirable physical quantities (e.g. force, inertial measurements). While classical approaches are powerful for locally-linear prediction problems, they often fall short when using real-world sensors. These sensors are typically non-linear, are affected by extraneous variables (e.g. vibration), and exhibit data-dependent drift. For many problems, the prediction task is exacerbated by small labeled datasets since obtaining ground-truth labels requires expensive equipment. In this work, we present Hierarchical State-Space Models (HiSS), a conceptually simple, new technique for continuous sequential prediction. HiSS stacks structured state-space models on top of each other to create a temporal hierarchy. Across six real-world sensor datasets, from tactile-based state prediction to accelerometer-based inertial measurement, HiSS outperforms state-of-the-art sequence models such as causal Transformers, LSTMs, S4, and Mamba by at least 23% on MSE. Our experiments further indicate that HiSS demonstrates efficient scaling to smaller datasets and is compatible with existing data-filtering techniques. Code, datasets and videos can be found on https://hiss-csp.github.io.

Bayesian models of cognition have gained considerable traction in computational neuroscience and psychiatry. Their scopes are now expected to expand rapidly to artificial intelligence, providing general inference frameworks to support embodied, adaptable, and energy-efficient autonomous agents. A central theory in this domain is predictive coding, which posits that learning and behaviour are driven by hierarchical probabilistic inferences about the causes of sensory inputs. Biological realism constrains these networks to rely on simple local computations in the form of precision-weighted predictions and prediction errors. This can make this framework highly efficient, but its implementation comes with unique challenges on the software development side. Embedding such models in standard neural network libraries often becomes limiting, as these libraries' compilation and differentiation backends can force a conceptual separation between optimization algorithms and the systems being optimized. This critically departs from other biological principles such as self-monitoring, self-organisation, cellular growth and functional plasticity. In this paper, we introduce pyhgf: a Python package backed by JAX and Rust for creating, manipulating and sampling dynamic networks for predictive coding. We improve over other frameworks by enclosing the network components as transparent, modular and malleable variables in the message-passing steps. The resulting graphs can implement arbitrary computational complexities as beliefs propagation. But the transparency of core variables can also translate into inference processes that leverage self-organisation principles, and express structure learning, meta-learning or causal discovery as the consequence of network structural adaptation to surprising inputs. The code, tutorials and documentation are hosted at: https://github.com/ilabcode/pyhgf.

Humans experience the world through constantly changing visual stimuli, where scenes can shift and move, change in appearance, and vary in distance. The dynamic nature of visual perception is a fundamental aspect of our daily lives, yet the large majority of research on object and scene processing, particularly using fMRI, has focused on static stimuli. While studies of static image perception are attractive due to their computational simplicity, they impose a strong non-naturalistic constraint on our investigation of human vision. In contrast, dynamic visual stimuli offer a more ecologically-valid approach but present new challenges due to the interplay between spatial and temporal information, making it difficult to disentangle the representations of stable image features and motion. To overcome this limitation -- given dynamic inputs, we explicitly decouple the modeling of static image representations and motion representations in the human brain. Three results demonstrate the feasibility of this approach. First, we show that visual motion information as optical flow can be predicted (or decoded) from brain activity as measured by fMRI. Second, we show that this predicted motion can be used to realistically animate static images using a motion-conditioned video diffusion model (where the motion is driven by fMRI brain activity). Third, we show prediction in the reverse direction: existing video encoders can be fine-tuned to predict fMRI brain activity from video imagery, and can do so more effectively than image encoders. This foundational work offers a novel, extensible framework for interpreting how the human brain processes dynamic visual information.

This work introduces audio2chart, a framework for the automatic generation of Guitar Hero style charts directly from raw audio. The task is formalized as a sequence prediction problem, where models are trained to generate discrete chart tokens aligned with the audio on discrete time steps. An unconditional baseline demonstrates strong predictive performance, while the addition of audio conditioning yields consistent improvements across accuracy based metrics. This work demonstrates that incorporating audio conditioning is both feasible and effective for improving note prediction in automatic chart generation. The complete codebase for training and inference is publicly available on GitHub supporting reproducible research on neural chart generation. A family of pretrained models is released on Hugging Face.

LLM-for-time series (TS) methods typically treat time shallowly, injecting positional or prompt-based cues once at the input of a largely frozen decoder, which limits temporal reasoning as this information degrades through the layers. We introduce Temporal-Prior Conditioning (TPC), which elevates time to a first-class modality that conditions the model at multiple depths. TPC attaches a small set of learnable time series tokens to the patch stream; at selected layers these tokens cross-attend to temporal embeddings derived from compact, human-readable temporal descriptors encoded by the same frozen LLM, then feed temporal context back via self-attention. This disentangles time series signal and temporal information while maintaining a low parameter budget. We show that by training only the cross-attention modules and explicitly disentangling time series signal and temporal information, TPC consistently outperforms both full fine-tuning and shallow conditioning strategies, achieving state-of-the-art performance in long-term forecasting across diverse datasets. Code available at: https://github.com/fil-mp/Deep_tpc

Speech processing algorithms often rely on statistical knowledge of the underlying process. Despite many years of research, however, the debate on the most appropriate statistical model for speech still continues. Speech is commonly modeled as a wide-sense stationary (WSS) process. However, the use of the WSS model for spectrally correlated processes is fundamentally wrong, as WSS implies spectral uncorrelation. In this paper, we demonstrate that voiced speech can be more accurately represented as a cyclostationary (CS) process. By employing the CS rather than the WSS model for processes that are inherently correlated across frequency, it is possible to improve the estimation of cross-power spectral densities (PSDs), source separation, and beamforming. We illustrate how the correlation between harmonic frequencies of CS processes can enhance system identification, and validate our findings using both simulated and real speech data.

Generative recommendation is emerging as a powerful paradigm that directly generates item predictions, moving beyond traditional matching-based approaches. However, current methods face two key challenges: token-item misalignment, where uniform token-level modeling ignores item-level granularity that is critical for collaborative signal learning, and semantic-collaborative signal entanglement, where collaborative and semantic signals exhibit distinct distributions yet are fused in a unified embedding space, leading to conflicting optimization objectives that limit the recommendation performance. To address these issues, we propose DiscRec, a novel framework that enables Disentangled Semantic-Collaborative signal modeling with flexible fusion for generative Recommendation.First, DiscRec introduces item-level position embeddings, assigned based on indices within each semantic ID, enabling explicit modeling of item structure in input token sequences.Second, DiscRec employs a dual-branch module to disentangle the two signals at the embedding layer: a semantic branch encodes semantic signals using original token embeddings, while a collaborative branch applies localized attention restricted to tokens within the same item to effectively capture collaborative signals. A gating mechanism subsequently fuses both branches while preserving the model's ability to model sequential dependencies. Extensive experiments on four real-world datasets demonstrate that DiscRec effectively decouples these signals and consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines. Our codes are available on https://github.com/Ten-Mao/DiscRec.

We study the estimation of a planted signal hidden in a recently introduced nested matrix-tensor model, which is an extension of the classical spiked rank-one tensor model, motivated by multi-view clustering. Prior work has theoretically examined the performance of a tensor-based approach, which relies on finding a best rank-one approximation, a problem known to be computationally hard. A tractable alternative approach consists in computing instead the best rank-one (matrix) approximation of an unfolding of the observed tensor data, but its performance was hitherto unknown. We quantify here the performance gap between these two approaches, in particular by deriving the precise algorithmic threshold of the unfolding approach and demonstrating that it exhibits a BBP-type transition behavior. This work is therefore in line with recent contributions which deepen our understanding of why tensor-based methods surpass matrix-based methods in handling structured tensor data.

Labeling training data has become one of the major roadblocks to using machine learning. Among various weak supervision paradigms, programmatic weak supervision (PWS) has achieved remarkable success in easing the manual labeling bottleneck by programmatically synthesizing training labels from multiple potentially noisy supervision sources. This paper presents a comprehensive survey of recent advances in PWS. In particular, we give a brief introduction of the PWS learning paradigm, and review representative approaches for each component within PWS's learning workflow. In addition, we discuss complementary learning paradigms for tackling limited labeled data scenarios and how these related approaches can be used in conjunction with PWS. Finally, we identify several critical challenges that remain under-explored in the area to hopefully inspire future research directions in the field.

We introduce anticipation: a method for constructing a controllable generative model of a temporal point process (the event process) conditioned asynchronously on realizations of a second, correlated process (the control process). We achieve this by interleaving sequences of events and controls, such that controls appear following stopping times in the event sequence. This work is motivated by problems arising in the control of symbolic music generation. We focus on infilling control tasks, whereby the controls are a subset of the events themselves, and conditional generation completes a sequence of events given the fixed control events. We train anticipatory infilling models using the large and diverse Lakh MIDI music dataset. These models match the performance of autoregressive models for prompted music generation, with the additional capability to perform infilling control tasks, including accompaniment. Human evaluators report that an anticipatory model produces accompaniments with similar musicality to even music composed by humans over a 20-second clip.

We propose a fully data-driven approach to designing mutual information (MI) estimators. Since any MI estimator is a function of the observed sample from two random variables, we parameterize this function with a neural network (MIST) and train it end-to-end to predict MI values. Training is performed on a large meta-dataset of 625,000 synthetic joint distributions with known ground-truth MI. To handle variable sample sizes and dimensions, we employ a two-dimensional attention scheme ensuring permutation invariance across input samples. To quantify uncertainty, we optimize a quantile regression loss, enabling the estimator to approximate the sampling distribution of MI rather than return a single point estimate. This research program departs from prior work by taking a fully empirical route, trading universal theoretical guarantees for flexibility and efficiency. Empirically, the learned estimators largely outperform classical baselines across sample sizes and dimensions, including on joint distributions unseen during training. The resulting quantile-based intervals are well-calibrated and more reliable than bootstrap-based confidence intervals, while inference is orders of magnitude faster than existing neural baselines. Beyond immediate empirical gains, this framework yields trainable, fully differentiable estimators that can be embedded into larger learning pipelines. Moreover, exploiting MI's invariance to invertible transformations, meta-datasets can be adapted to arbitrary data modalities via normalizing flows, enabling flexible training for diverse target meta-distributions.

Objective assessment of source-separation systems still mismatches subjective human perception, especially when leakage and self-distortion interact. We introduce the Perceptual Separation (PS) and Perceptual Match (PM), the first pair of measures that functionally isolate these two factors. Our intrusive method begins with generating a bank of fundamental distortions for each reference waveform signal in the mixture. Distortions, references, and their respective system outputs from all sources are then independently encoded by a pre-trained self-supervised learning model. These representations are aggregated and projected onto a manifold via diffusion maps, which aligns Euclidean distances on the manifold with dissimilarities of the encoded waveforms. On this manifold, the PM measures the Mahalanobis distance from each output to its attributed cluster that consists of its reference and distortions embeddings, capturing self-distortion. The PS accounts for the Mahalanobis distance of the output to the attributed and to the closest non-attributed clusters, quantifying leakage. Both measures are differentiable and granular, operating at a resolution as low as 50 frames per second. We further derive, for both measures, deterministic error radius and non-asymptotic, high-probability confidence intervals (CIs). Experiments on English, Spanish, and music mixtures show that the PS and PM nearly always achieve the highest linear correlation coefficients with human mean-opinion scores than 14 competitors, reaching as high as 86.36% for speech and 87.21% for music. We observe, at worst, an error radius of 1.39% and a probabilistic 95% CI of 12.21% for these coefficients, which improves reliable and informed evaluation. Using mutual information, the measures complement each other most as their values decrease, suggesting they are jointly more informative as system performance degrades.

The realization that complex systems such as ecological communities can collapse or shift regimes suddenly and without rapid external forcing poses a serious challenge to our understanding and management of the natural world. The potential to identify early warning signals that would allow researchers and managers to predict such events before they happen has therefore been an invaluable discovery that offers a way forward in spite of such seemingly unpredictable behavior. Research into early warning signals has demonstrated that it is possible to define and detect such early warning signals in advance of a transition in certain contexts. Here we describe the pattern emerging as research continues to explore just how far we can generalize these results. A core of examples emerges that shares three properties: the phenomenon of rapid regime shifts, a pattern of 'critical slowing down' that can be used to detect the approaching shift, and a mechanism of bifurcation driving the sudden change. As research has expanded beyond these core examples, it is becoming clear that not all systems that show regime shifts exhibit critical slowing down, or vice versa. Even when systems exhibit critical slowing down, statistical detection is a challenge. We review the literature that explores these edge cases and highlight the need for (a) new early warning behaviors that can be used in cases where rapid shifts do not exhibit critical slowing down, (b) the development of methods to identify which behavior might be an appropriate signal when encountering a novel system; bearing in mind that a positive indication for some systems is a negative indication in others, and (c) statistical methods that can distinguish between signatures of early warning behaviors and noise.

Many machine learning systems have access to multiple sources of evidence for the same prediction target, yet these sources often differ in reliability and informativeness across inputs. In bioacoustic classification, species identity may be inferred both from the acoustic signal and from spatiotemporal context such as location and season; while Bayesian inference motivates multiplicative evidence combination, in practice we typically only have access to discriminative predictors rather than calibrated generative models. We introduce Fusion under INdependent Conditional Hypotheses (FINCH), an adaptive log-linear evidence fusion framework that integrates a pre-trained audio classifier with a structured spatiotemporal predictor. FINCH learns a per-sample gating function that estimates the reliability of contextual information from uncertainty and informativeness statistics. The resulting fusion family contains the audio-only classifier as a special case and explicitly bounds the influence of contextual evidence, yielding a risk-contained hypothesis class with an interpretable audio-only fallback. Across benchmarks, FINCH consistently outperforms fixed-weight fusion and audio-only baselines, improving robustness and error trade-offs even when contextual information is weak in isolation. We achieve state-of-the-art performance on CBI and competitive or improved performance on several subsets of BirdSet using a lightweight, interpretable, evidence-based approach. Code is available: \href{https://anonymous.4open.science/r/birdnoise-85CD/README.md{anonymous-repository}}

In a differentially private sequential learning setting, agents introduce endogenous noise into their actions to maintain privacy. Applying this to a standard sequential learning model leads to different outcomes for continuous vs. binary signals. For continuous signals with a nonzero privacy budget, we introduce a novel smoothed randomized response mechanism that adapts noise based on distance to a threshold, unlike traditional randomized response, which applies uniform noise. This enables agents' actions to better reflect both private signals and observed history, accelerating asymptotic learning speed to Theta_{epsilon}(log(n)), compared to Theta(log(n)) in the non-private regime where privacy budget is infinite. Moreover, in the non-private setting, the expected stopping time for the first correct decision and the number of incorrect actions diverge, meaning early agents may make mistakes for an unreasonably long period. In contrast, under a finite privacy budget epsilon in (0,1), both remain finite, highlighting a stark contrast between private and non-private learning. Learning with continuous signals in the private regime is more efficient, as smooth randomized response enhances the log-likelihood ratio over time, improving information aggregation. Conversely, for binary signals, differential privacy noise hinders learning, as agents tend to use a constant randomized response strategy before an information cascade forms, reducing action informativeness and hampering the overall process.

Mixture models arise in many regression problems, but most methods have seen limited adoption partly due to these algorithms' highly-tailored and model-specific nature. On the other hand, transformers are flexible, neural sequence models that present the intriguing possibility of providing general-purpose prediction methods, even in this mixture setting. In this work, we investigate the hypothesis that transformers can learn an optimal predictor for mixtures of regressions. We construct a generative process for a mixture of linear regressions for which the decision-theoretic optimal procedure is given by data-driven exponential weights on a finite set of parameters. We observe that transformers achieve low mean-squared error on data generated via this process. By probing the transformer's output at inference time, we also show that transformers typically make predictions that are close to the optimal predictor. Our experiments also demonstrate that transformers can learn mixtures of regressions in a sample-efficient fashion and are somewhat robust to distribution shifts. We complement our experimental observations by proving constructively that the decision-theoretic optimal procedure is indeed implementable by a transformer.

We study the learning dynamics of self-predictive learning for reinforcement learning, a family of algorithms that learn representations by minimizing the prediction error of their own future latent representations. Despite its recent empirical success, such algorithms have an apparent defect: trivial representations (such as constants) minimize the prediction error, yet it is obviously undesirable to converge to such solutions. Our central insight is that careful designs of the optimization dynamics are critical to learning meaningful representations. We identify that a faster paced optimization of the predictor and semi-gradient updates on the representation, are crucial to preventing the representation collapse. Then in an idealized setup, we show self-predictive learning dynamics carries out spectral decomposition on the state transition matrix, effectively capturing information of the transition dynamics. Building on the theoretical insights, we propose bidirectional self-predictive learning, a novel self-predictive algorithm that learns two representations simultaneously. We examine the robustness of our theoretical insights with a number of small-scale experiments and showcase the promise of the novel representation learning algorithm with large-scale experiments.

We propose the Signal Dice Similarity Coefficient (SDSC), a structure-aware metric function for time series self-supervised representation learning. Most Self-Supervised Learning (SSL) methods for signals commonly adopt distance-based objectives such as mean squared error (MSE), which are sensitive to amplitude, invariant to waveform polarity, and unbounded in scale. These properties hinder semantic alignment and reduce interpretability. SDSC addresses this by quantifying structural agreement between temporal signals based on the intersection of signed amplitudes, derived from the Dice Similarity Coefficient (DSC).Although SDSC is defined as a structure-aware metric, it can be used as a loss by subtracting from 1 and applying a differentiable approximation of the Heaviside function for gradient-based optimization. A hybrid loss formulation is also proposed to combine SDSC with MSE, improving stability and preserving amplitude where necessary. Experiments on forecasting and classification benchmarks demonstrate that SDSC-based pre-training achieves comparable or improved performance over MSE, particularly in in-domain and low-resource scenarios. The results suggest that structural fidelity in signal representations enhances the semantic representation quality, supporting the consideration of structure-aware metrics as viable alternatives to conventional distance-based methods.

Inspired by the fact that the neural network, as the mainstream for machine learning, has brought successes in many application areas, here we propose to use this approach for decoding hidden correlation among pseudo-random data and predicting events accordingly. With a simple neural network structure and a typical training procedure, we demonstrate the learning and prediction power of the neural network in extremely random environment. Finally, we postulate that the high sensitivity and efficiency of the neural network may allow to critically test if there could be any fundamental difference between quantum randomness and pseudo randomness, which is equivalent to the question: Does God play dice?

Electrocardiogram (ECG) is a widely used tool for assessing cardiac function due to its low cost and accessibility. Emergent research shows that ECGs can help make predictions on key outcomes traditionally derived from more complex modalities such as echocardiograms (ECHO), enabling the use of ECGs as a more accessible method to predict broader measurements of cardiac function. ECHO, in particular, are of great importance because they require considerable hospital resources while playing a key role in clinical cardiac assessment. To aid this use case, we introduce EchoingECG, a probabilistic student-teacher model that leverages uncertainty-aware ECG embeddings and ECHO supervision to improve ECG-based cardiac function prediction. Our approach integrates Probabilistic Cross-Modal Embeddings (PCME++), a probabilistic contrastive framework, with ECHO-CLIP, a vision-language pre-trained model trained on ECHO-text pairs, to distill ECHO knowledge into ECG representations. Through experiments and external validation, we showed that EchoingECG outperforms state-of-the-art foundation ECG models in zero-shot, few-shot, and fine-tune settings for ECHO predictions based on ECG. We also highlighted that variance estimation (enabled through our method) enhanced our understanding of model performance by identifying underlying regions of uncertainty within ECGs. The code is available: https://github.com/mcintoshML/EchoingECG.

Audio and visual signals typically occur simultaneously, and humans possess an innate ability to correlate and synchronize information from these two modalities. Recently, a challenging problem known as Audio-Visual Segmentation (AVS) has emerged, intending to produce segmentation maps for sounding objects within a scene. However, the methods proposed so far have not sufficiently integrated audio and visual information, and the computational costs have been extremely high. Additionally, the outputs of different stages have not been fully utilized. To facilitate this research, we introduce a novel Progressive Confident Masking Attention Network (PMCANet). It leverages attention mechanisms to uncover the intrinsic correlations between audio signals and visual frames. Furthermore, we design an efficient and effective cross-attention module to enhance semantic perception by selecting query tokens. This selection is determined through confidence-driven units based on the network's multi-stage predictive outputs. Experiments demonstrate that our network outperforms other AVS methods while requiring less computational resources. The code is available at: https://github.com/PrettyPlate/PCMANet.

Many recent methods for unsupervised or self-supervised representation learning train feature extractors by maximizing an estimate of the mutual information (MI) between different views of the data. This comes with several immediate problems: For example, MI is notoriously hard to estimate, and using it as an objective for representation learning may lead to highly entangled representations due to its invariance under arbitrary invertible transformations. Nevertheless, these methods have been repeatedly shown to excel in practice. In this paper we argue, and provide empirical evidence, that the success of these methods cannot be attributed to the properties of MI alone, and that they strongly depend on the inductive bias in both the choice of feature extractor architectures and the parametrization of the employed MI estimators. Finally, we establish a connection to deep metric learning and argue that this interpretation may be a plausible explanation for the success of the recently introduced methods.

It is widely accepted that information derived from analyzing speech (the acoustic signal) and language production (words and sentences) serves as a useful window into the health of an individual's cognitive ability. In fact, most neuropsychological testing batteries have a component related to speech and language where clinicians elicit speech from patients for subjective evaluation across a broad set of dimensions. With advances in speech signal processing and natural language processing, there has been recent interest in developing tools to detect more subtle changes in cognitive-linguistic function. This work relies on extracting a set of features from recorded and transcribed speech for objective assessments of speech and language, early diagnosis of neurological disease, and tracking of disease after diagnosis. With an emphasis on cognitive and thought disorders, in this paper we provide a review of existing speech and language features used in this domain, discuss their clinical application, and highlight their advantages and disadvantages. Broadly speaking, the review is split into two categories: language features based on natural language processing and speech features based on speech signal processing. Within each category, we consider features that aim to measure complementary dimensions of cognitive-linguistics, including language diversity, syntactic complexity, semantic coherence, and timing. We conclude the review with a proposal of new research directions to further advance the field.

Language models have achieved remarkable success in various natural language processing tasks. However, their application to time series data, a crucial component in many domains, remains limited. This paper proposes LiPCoT (Linear Predictive Coding based Tokenizer for time series), a novel tokenizer that encodes time series data into a sequence of tokens, enabling self-supervised learning of time series using existing Language model architectures such as BERT. Unlike traditional time series tokenizers that rely heavily on CNN encoder for time series feature generation, LiPCoT employs stochastic modeling through linear predictive coding to create a latent space for time series providing a compact yet rich representation of the inherent stochastic nature of the data. Furthermore, LiPCoT is computationally efficient and can effectively handle time series data with varying sampling rates and lengths, overcoming common limitations of existing time series tokenizers. In this proof-of-concept work, we present the effectiveness of LiPCoT in classifying Parkinson's disease (PD) using an EEG dataset from 46 participants. In particular, we utilize LiPCoT to encode EEG data into a small vocabulary of tokens and then use BERT for self-supervised learning and the downstream task of PD classification. We benchmark our approach against several state-of-the-art CNN-based deep learning architectures for PD detection. Our results reveal that BERT models utilizing self-supervised learning outperformed the best-performing existing method by 7.1% in precision, 2.3% in recall, 5.5% in accuracy, 4% in AUC, and 5% in F1-score highlighting the potential for self-supervised learning even on small datasets. Our work will inform future foundational models for time series, particularly for self-supervised learning.

When a language model asserts that "the capital of Australia is Sydney," does it know this is wrong? We characterize the geometry of correctness representations across 9 models from 5 architecture families. The structure is simple: the discriminative signal occupies 3-8 dimensions, performance degrades with additional dimensions, and no nonlinear classifier improves over linear separation. Centroid distance in the low-dimensional subspace matches trained probe performance (0.90 AUC), enabling few-shot detection: on GPT-2, 25 labeled examples achieve 89% of full-data accuracy. We validate causally through activation steering: the learned direction produces 10.9 percentage point changes in error rates while random directions show no effect. Internal probes achieve 0.80-0.97 AUC; output-based methods (P(True), semantic entropy) achieve only 0.44-0.64 AUC. The correctness signal exists internally but is not expressed in outputs. That centroid distance matches probe performance indicates class separation is a mean shift, making detection geometric rather than learned.

Biosignals acquired from different locations on the body often provide temporally ordered views of the same underlying physiological process. However, most existing self supervised learning methods treat these signals as interchangeable views, overlooking the directional temporal dynamics that link them. A canonical example is the relationship between electrocardiography (ECG), which captures the electrical activation initiating each heartbeat, and photoplethysmography (PPG), which records the resulting peripheral pulse delayed by vascular dynamics. To capture this structured relationship, we introduce xMAE, a biosignal pretraining framework that leverages masked cross modal reconstruction across temporally ordered biosignals as a training time constraint to encourage physiologically meaningful timing structure in the learned representations. We show that pretraining with xMAE yields representations that outperform both unimodal and multimodal baselines on 15 of 19 downstream tasks, including cardiovascular outcome prediction, abnormal laboratory test detection, sleep staging, and demographic inference, while generalizing across devices, body locations, and acquisition settings. Further analysis suggests that the ECG PPG timing structure is reflected in the learned PPG representations. More broadly, xMAE demonstrates the effectiveness of incorporating temporal structure into multimodal pretraining when signals observe different stages of a shared underlying process. Code is available at https://github.com/hzhou3/xMAE.

This paper introduces a novel method for self-supervised video representation learning via feature prediction. In contrast to the previous methods that focus on future feature prediction, we argue that a supervisory signal arising from unobserved past frames is complementary to one that originates from the future frames. The rationale behind our method is to encourage the network to explore the temporal structure of videos by distinguishing between future and past given present observations. We train our model in a contrastive learning framework, where joint encoding of future and past provides us with a comprehensive set of temporal hard negatives via swapping. We empirically show that utilizing both signals enriches the learned representations for the downstream task of action recognition. It outperforms independent prediction of future and past.

Next token prediction paradigm has been prevailing for autoregressive models in the era of LLMs. The current default sampling choice for popular LLMs is temperature scaling together with nucleus sampling to balance diversity and coherence. Nevertheless, such approach leads to inferior performance in various NLP tasks when the model is not certain about testing questions. To this end, we propose a brand new training-free decoding strategy, dubbed as Cautious Next Token Prediction (CNTP). In the decoding process, if the model has comparatively high prediction entropy at a certain step, we sample multiple trials starting from the step independently and stop when encountering any punctuation. Then we select the trial with the lowest perplexity score viewed as the most probable and reliable trial path given the model's capacity. The trial number is negatively correlated with the prediction confidence, i.e., the less confident the model is, the more trials it should sample. This is consistent with human beings' behaviour: when feeling uncertain or unconfident, one tends to think more creatively, exploring multiple thinking paths, to cautiously select the path one feels most confident about. Extensive experiments on both LLMs and MLLMs show that our proposed CNTP approach outperforms existing standard decoding strategies consistently by a clear margin. Moreover, the integration of CNTP with self consistency can further improve over vanilla self consistency. We believe our proposed CNTP has the potential to become one of the default choices for LLM decoding. Code is available at https://github.com/wyzjack/CNTP.

We consider the problem of predicting how the likelihood of an outcome of interest for a patient changes over time as we observe more of the patient data. To solve this problem, we propose a supervised contrastive learning framework that learns an embedding representation for each time step of a patient time series. Our framework learns the embedding space to have the following properties: (1) nearby points in the embedding space have similar predicted class probabilities, (2) adjacent time steps of the same time series map to nearby points in the embedding space, and (3) time steps with very different raw feature vectors map to far apart regions of the embedding space. To achieve property (3), we employ a nearest neighbor pairing mechanism in the raw feature space. This mechanism also serves as an alternative to data augmentation, a key ingredient of contrastive learning, which lacks a standard procedure that is adequately realistic for clinical tabular data, to our knowledge. We demonstrate that our approach outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in predicting mortality of septic patients (MIMIC-III dataset) and tracking progression of cognitive impairment (ADNI dataset). Our method also consistently recovers the correct synthetic dataset embedding structure across experiments, a feat not achieved by baselines. Our ablation experiments show the pivotal role of our nearest neighbor pairing.

We introduce BeepBank-500, a compact, fully synthetic earcon/alert dataset (300-500 clips) designed for rapid, rights-clean experimentation in human-computer interaction and audio machine learning. Each clip is generated from a parametric recipe controlling waveform family (sine, square, triangle, FM), fundamental frequency, duration, amplitude envelope, amplitude modulation (AM), and lightweight Schroeder-style reverberation. We use three reverberation settings: dry, and two synthetic rooms denoted 'rir small' ('small') and 'rir medium' ('medium') throughout the paper and in the metadata. We release mono 48 kHz WAV audio (16-bit), a rich metadata table (signal/spectral features), and tiny reproducible baselines for (i) waveform-family classification and (ii) f0 regression on single tones. The corpus targets tasks such as earcon classification, timbre analyses, and onset detection, with clearly stated licensing and limitations. Audio is dedicated to the public domain via CC0-1.0; code is under MIT. Data DOI: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17172015. Code: https://github.com/mandip42/earcons-mini-500.

In recent years, the community of 'explainable artificial intelligence' (XAI) has created a vast body of methods to bridge a perceived gap between model 'complexity' and 'interpretability'. However, a concrete problem to be solved by XAI methods has not yet been formally stated. As a result, XAI methods are lacking theoretical and empirical evidence for the 'correctness' of their explanations, limiting their potential use for quality-control and transparency purposes. At the same time, Haufe et al. (2014) showed, using simple toy examples, that even standard interpretations of linear models can be highly misleading. Specifically, high importance may be attributed to so-called suppressor variables lacking any statistical relation to the prediction target. This behavior has been confirmed empirically for a large array of XAI methods in Wilming et al. (2022). Here, we go one step further by deriving analytical expressions for the behavior of a variety of popular XAI methods on a simple two-dimensional binary classification problem involving Gaussian class-conditional distributions. We show that the majority of the studied approaches will attribute non-zero importance to a non-class-related suppressor feature in the presence of correlated noise. This poses important limitations on the interpretations and conclusions that the outputs of these XAI methods can afford.

In this paper, we introduce fastHDMI, a Python package designed for efficient variable screening in high-dimensional datasets, particularly neuroimaging data. This work pioneers the application of three mutual information estimation methods for neuroimaging variable selection, a novel approach implemented via fastHDMI. These advancements enhance our ability to analyze the complex structures of neuroimaging datasets, providing improved tools for variable selection in high-dimensional spaces. Using the preprocessed ABIDE dataset, we evaluate the performance of these methods through extensive simulations. The tests cover a range of conditions, including linear and nonlinear associations, as well as continuous and binary outcomes. Our results highlight the superiority of the FFTKDE-based mutual information estimation for feature screening in continuous nonlinear outcomes, while binning-based methods outperform others for binary outcomes with nonlinear probability preimages. For linear simulations, both Pearson correlation and FFTKDE-based methods show comparable performance for continuous outcomes, while Pearson excels in binary outcomes with linear probability preimages. A comprehensive case study using the ABIDE dataset further demonstrates fastHDMI's practical utility, showcasing the predictive power of models built from variables selected using our screening techniques. This research affirms the computational efficiency and methodological strength of fastHDMI, significantly enriching the toolkit available for neuroimaging analysis.

We used a dataset of daily Bloomberg Financial Market Summaries from 2010 to 2023, reposted on large financial media, to determine how global news headlines may affect stock market movements using ChatGPT and a two-stage prompt approach. We document a statistically significant positive correlation between the sentiment score and future equity market returns over short to medium term, which reverts to a negative correlation over longer horizons. Validation of this correlation pattern across multiple equity markets indicates its robustness across equity regions and resilience to non-linearity, evidenced by comparison of Pearson and Spearman correlations. Finally, we provide an estimate of the optimal horizon that strikes a balance between reactivity to new information and correlation.

In order to minimize the generalization error in neural networks, a novel technique to identify overfitting phenomena when training the learner is formally introduced. This enables support of a reliable and trustworthy early stopping condition, thus improving the predictive power of that type of modeling. Our proposal exploits the correlation over time in a collection of online indicators, namely characteristic functions for indicating if a set of hypotheses are met, associated with a range of independent stopping conditions built from a canary judgment to evaluate the presence of overfitting. That way, we provide a formal basis for decision making in terms of interrupting the learning process. As opposed to previous approaches focused on a single criterion, we take advantage of subsidiarities between independent assessments, thus seeking both a wider operating range and greater diagnostic reliability. With a view to illustrating the effectiveness of the halting condition described, we choose to work in the sphere of natural language processing, an operational continuum increasingly based on machine learning. As a case study, we focus on parser generation, one of the most demanding and complex tasks in the domain. The selection of cross-validation as a canary function enables an actual comparison with the most representative early stopping conditions based on overfitting identification, pointing to a promising start toward an optimal bias and variance control.

Certain statistical models are capable of interpreting input strings as instructions, or prompts, and carry out tasks based on them. Many approaches to prompting and pre-training these models involve the automated generation of these prompts. We call these approaches meta-prompting, or prompting to obtain prompts. We propose a theoretical framework based on category theory to generalize and describe them. This framework is flexible enough to account for LLM stochasticity; and allows us to obtain formal results around task agnosticity and equivalence of various meta-prompting approaches. We experiment with meta-prompting in two active areas of model research: creativity and ideation. We find that user preference favors (p < 0.01) the prompts generated under meta-prompting, as well as their corresponding outputs, over a series of hardcoded baseline prompts that include the original task prompt. Using our framework, we argue that meta-prompting is more effective than basic prompting at generating desirable outputs.

Echocardiography (ECHO) is essential for cardiac assessments, but its video quality and interpretation heavily relies on manual expertise, leading to inconsistent results from clinical and portable devices. ECHO video generation offers a solution by improving automated monitoring through synthetic data and generating high-quality videos from routine health data. However, existing models often face high computational costs, slow inference, and rely on complex conditional prompts that require experts' annotations. To address these challenges, we propose ECHOPULSE, an ECG-conditioned ECHO video generation model. ECHOPULSE introduces two key advancements: (1) it accelerates ECHO video generation by leveraging VQ-VAE tokenization and masked visual token modeling for fast decoding, and (2) it conditions on readily accessible ECG signals, which are highly coherent with ECHO videos, bypassing complex conditional prompts. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work to use time-series prompts like ECG signals for ECHO video generation. ECHOPULSE not only enables controllable synthetic ECHO data generation but also provides updated cardiac function information for disease monitoring and prediction beyond ECG alone. Evaluations on three public and private datasets demonstrate state-of-the-art performance in ECHO video generation across both qualitative and quantitative measures. Additionally, ECHOPULSE can be easily generalized to other modality generation tasks, such as cardiac MRI, fMRI, and 3D CT generation. Demo can seen from https://github.com/levyisthebest/ECHOPulse_Prelease.

We study the problem of detecting the correlation between two Gaussian databases XinR^{ntimes d} and Y^{ntimes d}, each composed of n users with d features. This problem is relevant in the analysis of social media, computational biology, etc. We formulate this as a hypothesis testing problem: under the null hypothesis, these two databases are statistically independent. Under the alternative, however, there exists an unknown permutation sigma over the set of n users (or, row permutation), such that X is rho-correlated with Y^sigma, a permuted version of Y. We determine sharp thresholds at which optimal testing exhibits a phase transition, depending on the asymptotic regime of n and d. Specifically, we prove that if rho^2dto0, as dtoinfty, then weak detection (performing slightly better than random guessing) is statistically impossible, irrespectively of the value of n. This compliments the performance of a simple test that thresholds the sum all entries of X^TY. Furthermore, when d is fixed, we prove that strong detection (vanishing error probability) is impossible for any rho<rho^star, where rho^star is an explicit function of d, while weak detection is again impossible as long as rho^2dto0. These results close significant gaps in current recent related studies.

We introduce LMCodec, a causal neural speech codec that provides high quality audio at very low bitrates. The backbone of the system is a causal convolutional codec that encodes audio into a hierarchy of coarse-to-fine tokens using residual vector quantization. LMCodec trains a Transformer language model to predict the fine tokens from the coarse ones in a generative fashion, allowing for the transmission of fewer codes. A second Transformer predicts the uncertainty of the next codes given the past transmitted codes, and is used to perform conditional entropy coding. A MUSHRA subjective test was conducted and shows that the quality is comparable to reference codecs at higher bitrates. Example audio is available at https://mjenrungrot.github.io/chrome-media-audio-papers/publications/lmcodec.

We address the problem of learning the dynamics of an unknown non-parametric system linking a target and a feature time series. The feature time series is measured on a sparse and irregular grid, while we have access to only a few points of the target time series. Once learned, we can use these dynamics to predict values of the target from the previous values of the feature time series. We frame this task as learning the solution map of a controlled differential equation (CDE). By leveraging the rich theory of signatures, we are able to cast this non-linear problem as a high-dimensional linear regression. We provide an oracle bound on the prediction error which exhibits explicit dependencies on the individual-specific sampling schemes. Our theoretical results are illustrated by simulations which show that our method outperforms existing algorithms for recovering the full time series while being computationally cheap. We conclude by demonstrating its potential on real-world epidemiological data.

This article does not propose any novel algorithm or new hardware for sparsity. Instead, it aims to serve the "common good" for the increasingly prosperous Sparse Neural Network (SNN) research community. We attempt to summarize some most common confusions in SNNs, that one may come across in various scenarios such as paper review/rebuttal and talks - many drawn from the authors' own bittersweet experiences! We feel that doing so is meaningful and timely, since the focus of SNN research is notably shifting from traditional pruning to more diverse and profound forms of sparsity before, during, and after training. The intricate relationships between their scopes, assumptions, and approaches lead to misunderstandings, for non-experts or even experts in SNNs. In response, we summarize ten Q\&As of SNNs from many key aspects, including dense vs. sparse, unstructured sparse vs. structured sparse, pruning vs. sparse training, dense-to-sparse training vs. sparse-to-sparse training, static sparsity vs. dynamic sparsity, before-training/during-training vs. post-training sparsity, and many more. We strive to provide proper and generically applicable answers to clarify those confusions to the best extent possible. We hope our summary provides useful general knowledge for people who want to enter and engage with this exciting community; and also provides some "mind of ease" convenience for SNN researchers to explain their work in the right contexts. At the very least (and perhaps as this article's most insignificant target functionality), if you are writing/planning to write a paper or rebuttal in the field of SNNs, we hope some of our answers could help you!

Speculative decoding accelerates large language model (LLM) inference by using a small draft model to propose candidate tokens that a larger target model verifies. A critical hyperparameter in this process is the speculation length γ, which determines how many tokens the draft model proposes per step. Nearly all existing systems use a fixed γ (typically 4), yet empirical evidence suggests that the optimal value varies across task types and, crucially, depends on the compression level applied to the target model. In this paper, we present SpecKV, a lightweight adaptive controller that selects γ per speculation step using signals extracted from the draft model itself. We profile speculative decoding across 4 task categories, 4 speculation lengths, and 3 compression levels (FP16, INT8, NF4), collecting 5,112 step-level records with per-step acceptance rates, draft entropy, and draft confidence. We demonstrate that the optimal γ shifts across compression regimes and that draft model confidence and entropy are strong predictors of acceptance rate (correlation approx 0.56). SpecKV uses a small MLP trained on these signals to maximize expected tokens per speculation step, achieving a 56.0% improvement over the fixed-γ=4 baseline with only 0.34 ms overhead per decision (<0.5% of step time). The improvement is statistically significant (p < 0.001, paired bootstrap test). We release all profiling data, trained models, and notebooks as open-source artifacts.

Real-world multichannel time series prediction faces growing demands for efficiency across edge and cloud environments, making channel compression a timely and essential problem. Motivated by success of Multiple-Input Multiple-Output (MIMO) methods, we propose a predictability-aware compression-decompression framework to reduce runtime, lower communication cost, and maintain prediction accuracy across diverse predictors. The core idea involves using a circular periodicity key matrix with orthogonality to capture underlying time series predictability during compression and to mitigate reconstruction errors during decompression by relaxing oversimplified data assumptions. Theoretical and empirical analyses show that the proposed framework is both time-efficient and scalable under a large number of channels. Extensive experiments on six datasets across various predictors demonstrate that the proposed method achieves superior overall performance by jointly considering prediction accuracy and runtime, while maintaining strong compatibility with diverse predictors.

We present extensive empirical evidence showing that current Bayesian simulation-based inference algorithms can produce computationally unfaithful posterior approximations. Our results show that all benchmarked algorithms -- (Sequential) Neural Posterior Estimation, (Sequential) Neural Ratio Estimation, Sequential Neural Likelihood and variants of Approximate Bayesian Computation -- can yield overconfident posterior approximations, which makes them unreliable for scientific use cases and falsificationist inquiry. Failing to address this issue may reduce the range of applicability of simulation-based inference. For this reason, we argue that research efforts should be made towards theoretical and methodological developments of conservative approximate inference algorithms and present research directions towards this objective. In this regard, we show empirical evidence that ensembling posterior surrogates provides more reliable approximations and mitigates the issue.

Feature selection is the problem of selecting a subset of features for a machine learning model that maximizes model quality subject to a budget constraint. For neural networks, prior methods, including those based on ell_1 regularization, attention, and other techniques, typically select the entire feature subset in one evaluation round, ignoring the residual value of features during selection, i.e., the marginal contribution of a feature given that other features have already been selected. We propose a feature selection algorithm called Sequential Attention that achieves state-of-the-art empirical results for neural networks. This algorithm is based on an efficient one-pass implementation of greedy forward selection and uses attention weights at each step as a proxy for feature importance. We give theoretical insights into our algorithm for linear regression by showing that an adaptation to this setting is equivalent to the classical Orthogonal Matching Pursuit (OMP) algorithm, and thus inherits all of its provable guarantees. Our theoretical and empirical analyses offer new explanations towards the effectiveness of attention and its connections to overparameterization, which may be of independent interest.

Deep Neural Networks lead the state of the art of computer vision tasks. Despite this, Neural Networks are brittle in that small changes in the input can drastically affect their prediction outcome and confidence. Consequently and naturally, research in this area mainly focus on adversarial attacks and defenses. In this paper, we take an alternative stance and introduce the concept of Assistive Signals, which are optimized to improve a model's confidence score regardless if it's under attack or not. We analyse some interesting properties of these assistive perturbations and extend the idea to optimize assistive signals in the 3D space for real-life scenarios simulating different lighting conditions and viewing angles. Experimental evaluations show that the assistive signals generated by our optimization method increase the accuracy and confidence of deep models more than those generated by conventional methods that work in the 2D space. In addition, our Assistive Signals illustrate the intrinsic bias of ML models towards certain patterns in real-life objects. We discuss how we can exploit these insights to re-think, or avoid, some patterns that might contribute to, or degrade, the detectability of objects in the real-world.

Memory-based meta-learning is a technique for approximating Bayes-optimal predictors. Under fairly general conditions, minimizing sequential prediction error, measured by the log loss, leads to implicit meta-learning. The goal of this work is to investigate how far this interpretation can be realized by current sequence prediction models and training regimes. The focus is on piecewise stationary sources with unobserved switching-points, which arguably capture an important characteristic of natural language and action-observation sequences in partially observable environments. We show that various types of memory-based neural models, including Transformers, LSTMs, and RNNs can learn to accurately approximate known Bayes-optimal algorithms and behave as if performing Bayesian inference over the latent switching-points and the latent parameters governing the data distribution within each segment.

Photoplethysmogram (PPG) and electrocardiogram (ECG) are commonly recorded in intesive care unit (ICU) and operating room (OR). However, the high incidence of poor, incomplete, and inconsistent signal quality, can lead to false alarms or diagnostic inaccuracies. The methods explored so far suffer from limited generalizability, reliance on extensive labeled data, and poor cross-task transferability. To overcome these challenges, we introduce QualityFM, a novel multimodal foundation model for these physiological signals, designed to acquire a general-purpose understanding of signal quality. Our model is pre-trained on an large-scale dataset comprising over 21 million 30-second waveforms and 179,757 hours of data. Our approach involves a dual-track architecture that processes paired physiological signals of differing quality, leveraging a self-distillation strategy where an encoder for high-quality signals is used to guide the training of an encoder for low-quality signals. To efficiently handle long sequential signals and capture essential local quasi-periodic patterns, we integrate a windowed sparse attention mechanism within our Transformer-based model. Furthermore, a composite loss function, which combines direct distillation loss on encoder outputs with indirect reconstruction loss based on power and phase spectra, ensures the preservation of frequency-domain characteristics of the signals. We pre-train three models with varying parameter counts (9.6 M to 319 M) and demonstrate their efficacy and practical value through transfer learning on three distinct clinical tasks: false alarm of ventricular tachycardia detection, the identification of atrial fibrillation and the estimation of arterial blood pressure (ABP) from PPG and ECG signals.

Prompting is a mainstream paradigm for adapting large language models to specific natural language processing tasks without modifying internal parameters. Therefore, detailed supplementary knowledge needs to be integrated into external prompts, which inevitably brings extra human efforts and computational burdens for practical applications. As an effective solution to mitigate resource consumption, Efficient Prompting Methods have attracted a wide range of attention. We provide mathematical expressions at a high level to deeply discuss Automatic Prompt Engineering for different prompt components and Prompt Compression in continuous and discrete spaces. Finally, we highlight promising future directions to inspire researchers interested in this field.

Models of neural responses to stimuli with complex spatiotemporal correlation structure often assume that neurons are only selective for a small number of linear projections of a potentially high-dimensional input. Here we explore recent modeling approaches where the neural response depends on the quadratic form of the input rather than on its linear projection, that is, the neuron is sensitive to the local covariance structure of the signal preceding the spike. To infer this quadratic dependence in the presence of arbitrary (e.g. naturalistic) stimulus distribution, we review several inference methods, focussing in particular on two information-theory-based approaches (maximization of stimulus energy or of noise entropy) and a likelihood-based approach (Bayesian spike-triggered covariance, extensions of generalized linear models). We analyze the formal connection between the likelihood-based and information-based approaches to show how they lead to consistent inference. We demonstrate the practical feasibility of these procedures by using model neurons responding to a flickering variance stimulus.

We investigate applying audio manipulations using pretrained neural network-based autoencoders as an alternative to traditional signal processing methods, since the former may provide greater semantic or perceptual organization. To establish the potential of this approach, we first establish if representations from these models encode information about manipulations. We carry out experiments and produce visualizations using representations from two different pretrained autoencoders. Our findings indicate that, while some information about audio manipulations is encoded, this information is both limited and encoded in a non-trivial way. This is supported by our attempts to visualize these representations, which demonstrated that trajectories of representations for common manipulations are typically nonlinear and content dependent, even for linear signal manipulations. As a result, it is not yet clear how these pretrained autoencoders can be used to manipulate audio signals, however, our results indicate this may be due to the lack of disentanglement with respect to common audio manipulations.

Recent work has shown that LLMs can sometimes detect when steering vectors are injected into their residual stream and identify the injected concept -- a phenomenon termed "introspective awareness." We investigate the mechanisms underlying this capability in open-weights models. First, we find that it is behaviorally robust: models detect injected steering vectors at moderate rates with 0% false positives across diverse prompts and dialogue formats. Notably, this capability emerges specifically from post-training; we show that preference optimization algorithms like DPO can elicit it, but standard supervised finetuning does not. We provide evidence that detection cannot be explained by simple linear association between certain steering vectors and directions promoting affirmative responses. We trace the detection mechanism to a two-stage circuit in which "evidence carrier" features in early post-injection layers detect perturbations monotonically along diverse directions, suppressing downstream "gate" features that implement a default negative response. This circuit is absent in base models and robust to refusal ablation. Identification of injected concepts relies on largely distinct later-layer mechanisms that only weakly overlap with those involved in detection. Finally, we show that introspective capability is substantially underelicited: ablating refusal directions improves detection by +53%, and a trained bias vector improves it by +75% on held-out concepts, both without meaningfully increasing false positives. Our results suggest that this introspective awareness of injected concepts is robust and mechanistically nontrivial, and could be substantially amplified in future models. Code: https://github.com/safety-research/introspection-mechanisms.

Human language processing relies on the brain's capacity for predictive inference. We present a machine learning framework for decoding neural (EEG) responses to dynamic visual language stimuli in Deaf signers. Using coherence between neural signals and optical flow-derived motion features, we construct spatiotemporal representations of predictive neural dynamics. Through entropy-based feature selection, we identify frequency-specific neural signatures that differentiate interpretable linguistic input from linguistically disrupted (time-reversed) stimuli. Our results reveal distributed left-hemispheric and frontal low-frequency coherence as key features in language comprehension, with experience-dependent neural signatures correlating with age. This work demonstrates a novel multimodal approach for probing experience-driven generative models of perception in the brain.

Objective: Electroencephalography signals are recorded as a multidimensional dataset. We propose a new framework based on the augmented covariance extracted from an autoregressive model to improve motor imagery classification. Methods: From the autoregressive model can be derived the Yule-Walker equations, which show the emergence of a symmetric positive definite matrix: the augmented covariance matrix. The state-of the art for classifying covariance matrices is based on Riemannian Geometry. A fairly natural idea is therefore to extend the standard approach using these augmented covariance matrices. The methodology for creating the augmented covariance matrix shows a natural connection with the delay embedding theorem proposed by Takens for dynamical systems. Such an embedding method is based on the knowledge of two parameters: the delay and the embedding dimension, respectively related to the lag and the order of the autoregressive model. This approach provides new methods to compute the hyper-parameters in addition to standard grid search. Results: The augmented covariance matrix performed noticeably better than any state-of-the-art methods. We will test our approach on several datasets and several subjects using the MOABB framework, using both within-session and cross-session evaluation. Conclusion: The improvement in results is due to the fact that the augmented covariance matrix incorporates not only spatial but also temporal information, incorporating nonlinear components of the signal through an embedding procedure, which allows the leveraging of dynamical systems algorithms. Significance: These results extend the concepts and the results of the Riemannian distance based classification algorithm.

In mobile telecommunications, alarms act as early warning signals. They are triggered when a cell, the basic unit of radio coverage, shuts down or behaves abnormally. This signals a degradation in service quality, which directly affects the customer experience. To fix the issue, operators rely on preset thresholds to decide when an engineer should be sent out. In practice, these thresholds are set manually and remain fixed regardless of the time of day, traffic levels, or overall network conditions. This often leads to serious faults slipping through during busy hours, while minor issues can cause unnecessary callouts when the network is quiet. This paper presents a machine learning framework that automatically predicts four alarm thresholds, audit window duration, inactive time limit, total fluctuation count, and per hour fluctuation limit, from live network behavior. Since no ground truth labels exist for thresholds, we introduce a percentile guided label derivation strategy and evaluate four models on an anonymized dataset of 10,648 cells across three vendors and nine regions from a real 4G network, comprising a Gradient Boosted Trees baseline, a CNN-BiLSTM with attention, the proposed PCTN, and an iTransformer. PCTN performs the best overall with respect to three of the four targets, outperforming a state-of-the-art iTransformer while using 83 percent fewer parameters. Its mixed output heads and dynamic alpha mechanism produce thresholds that are both accurate and interpretable, allowing operators to inspect and adjust the learned policy without retraining. All comparisons are statistically significant at p < 0.001. The framework undergoes daily retraining using new data, which enables the thresholds to constantly adjust to changes in the network.

We report a peculiar observation that LLMs can assign hidden meanings to sequences that seem visually incomprehensible to humans: for example, a nonsensical phrase consisting of Byzantine musical symbols is recognized by gpt-4o as "say abracadabra". Moreover, some models can communicate using these sequences. Some of these meanings are hypothesized to partly originate in the massive spurious correlations due to BPE tokenization. We systematically evaluate the presence of such abilities in a wide range of models: Claude-3.5 Haiku, Claude-3.5 Sonnet (New and Old), Claude-3.7 Sonnet, gpt-4o mini, gpt-4o, o1-mini, Llama-3.3 70B, DeepSeek-R1-Distill-Lllama 70B, Qwen2.5 1.5B, Qwen2.5 32B, Phi-3.5 mini, GigaChat-Max, Vikhr-Llama-3.2 1B. We argue that this observation might have far-reaching consequences for both safety and security of the modern and future LLMs and systems that employ them. As an illustration, we show that applying this method in combination with simple templates is sufficient to jailbreak previous generation models, with ASR = 0.4 on gpt-4o mini. Our code and data artifacts are available at https://github.com/L3G5/llm-hidden-meanings

We investigate the use of randomly generated data for the sake of pre-training a model. We justify this approach theoretically from the perspective of algorithmic complexity, building on recent research that shows that sequence models can be trained to approximate Solomonoff induction. We derive similar, but complementary theoretical results. We show empirically that synthetically generated data can be used to pre-train a model before the data is seen. We replicate earlier results that models trained this way show zero-shot in-context learning across a variety of datasets, and that this performance improves with scale. We extend earlier results to real-world data, and show that finetuning a model after pre-training offers faster convergence and better generalization.

Electroencephalography (EEG) enables non-invasive monitoring of brain activity across clinical and neurotechnology applications, yet building foundation models for EEG remains challenging due to differing electrode topologies and computational scalability, as Transformer architectures incur quadratic sequence complexity. As a joint solution, we propose LuMamba (Latent Unified Mamba), a self-supervised framework combining topology-invariant encodings with linear-complexity state-space modeling, using LUNA's learned-query cross-attention mechanism for channel unification~luna, and FEMBA's bidirectional Mamba blocks for efficient temporal modeling~femba. Within this architecture, we provide the first systematic investigation of the Latent-Euclidean Joint-Embedding Predictive Architecture (LeJEPA) for biosignal learning. Pre-trained on over 21,000 hours of unlabeled EEG from the TUEG corpus, LuMamba is evaluated on five downstream tasks spanning abnormality detection, artifact recognition, and mental condition classification across electrode configurations ranging from 16 to 26 channels. In the pre-training objective, masked reconstruction alone yields structured but less generalizable representations, while LeJEPA alone produces diffuse embeddings; combining both objectives achieves the most robust performance. With only 4.6M parameters, LuMamba attains 80.99\% balanced accuracy on TUAB and achieves state-of-art performance on Alzheimer's detection (0.97 AUPR), while requiring 377times fewer FLOPS than state-of-art models at equivalent sequence lengths and scaling to 12times longer sequences before reaching typical GPU memory limits. Code is available at https://github.com/pulp-bio/biofoundation

Training loss and throughput can hide distinct internal representation in language-model training. To examine these hidden mechanics, we use spectral measurements as practical and operational diagnostics. Using a controlled family of decoder-only models adapted from the modded NanoGPT codebase, we introduce an empirical protocol based on activation covariance and per-sample gradient SVD spectra. This dual-view reveals three empirical findings and one mechanistic explanation. First, batch size acts as a latent determinant of representation geometry: runs that reach equal loss settle into systematically distinct activation spectra. Second, the activation covariance tail measured early in training reliably forecasts downstream token efficiency. Third, movement of the activation spectrum head (leading modes), together with gradient spectra, characterizes underlying learning-dynamics changes, separating learning-side architectural improvements from primarily execution-side gains. These predictive and diagnostic signals persist across the 12-, 36-, and 48-layer model tiers. Finally, a mechanistic model proves the main observations and explains how activation covariance spectra correlate with task-aligned feature learning.

In this paper, we explore strategies to detect and evaluate counterfactual sentences. We describe our system for SemEval-2020 Task 5: Modeling Causal Reasoning in Language: Detecting Counterfactuals. We use a BERT base model for the classification task and build a hybrid BERT Multi-Layer Perceptron system to handle the sequence identification task. Our experiments show that while introducing syntactic and semantic features does little in improving the system in the classification task, using these types of features as cascaded linear inputs to fine-tune the sequence-delimiting ability of the model ensures it outperforms other similar-purpose complex systems like BiLSTM-CRF in the second task. Our system achieves an F1 score of 85.00% in Task 1 and 83.90% in Task 2.

The confluence of the advancement of Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) and the maturity of Vehicle-to-Everything (V2X) communication has enabled the capability of cooperative connected and automated vehicles (CAVs). Building on top of cooperative perception, this paper explores the feasibility and effectiveness of cooperative motion prediction. Our method, CMP, takes LiDAR signals as model input to enhance tracking and prediction capabilities. Unlike previous work that focuses separately on either cooperative perception or motion prediction, our framework, to the best of our knowledge, is the first to address the unified problem where CAVs share information in both perception and prediction modules. Incorporated into our design is the unique capability to tolerate realistic V2X transmission delays, while dealing with bulky perception representations. We also propose a prediction aggregation module, which unifies the predictions obtained by different CAVs and generates the final prediction. Through extensive experiments and ablation studies on the OPV2V and V2V4Real datasets, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our method in cooperative perception, tracking, and motion prediction. In particular, CMP reduces the average prediction error by 12.3% compared with the strongest baseline. Our work marks a significant step forward in the cooperative capabilities of CAVs, showcasing enhanced performance in complex scenarios. More details can be found on the project website: https://cmp-cooperative-prediction.github.io.

We present a method for simultaneously localizing multiple sound sources within a visual scene. This task requires a model to both group a sound mixture into individual sources, and to associate them with a visual signal. Our method jointly solves both tasks at once, using a formulation inspired by the contrastive random walk of Jabri et al. We create a graph in which images and separated sounds correspond to nodes, and train a random walker to transition between nodes from different modalities with high return probability. The transition probabilities for this walk are determined by an audio-visual similarity metric that is learned by our model. We show through experiments with musical instruments and human speech that our model can successfully localize multiple sounds, outperforming other self-supervised methods. Project site: https://hxixixh.github.io/mix-and-localize

Given a (machine learning) classifier and a collection of unlabeled data, how can we efficiently identify misclassification patterns presented in this dataset? To address this problem, we propose a human-machine collaborative framework that consists of a team of human annotators and a sequential recommendation algorithm. The recommendation algorithm is conceptualized as a stochastic sampler that, in each round, queries the annotators a subset of samples for their true labels and obtains the feedback information on whether the samples are misclassified. The sampling mechanism needs to balance between discovering new patterns of misclassification (exploration) and confirming the potential patterns of classification (exploitation). We construct a determinantal point process, whose intensity balances the exploration-exploitation trade-off through the weighted update of the posterior at each round to form the generator of the stochastic sampler. The numerical results empirically demonstrate the competitive performance of our framework on multiple datasets at various signal-to-noise ratios.

The quality of many modern machine learning models improves as model complexity increases, an effect that has been quantified, for predictive performance, with the non-monotonic double descent learning curve. Here, we address the overarching question: is there an analogous theory of double descent for models which estimate uncertainty? We provide a partially affirmative and partially negative answer in the setting of Gaussian processes (GP). Under standard assumptions, we prove that higher model quality for optimally-tuned GPs (including uncertainty prediction) under marginal likelihood is realized for larger input dimensions, and therefore exhibits a monotone error curve. After showing that marginal likelihood does not naturally exhibit double descent in the input dimension, we highlight related forms of posterior predictive loss that do exhibit non-monotonicity. Finally, we verify empirically that our results hold for real data, beyond our considered assumptions, and we explore consequences involving synthetic covariates.

Models that can predict the occurrence of events ahead of time with low false-alarm rates are critical to the acceptance of decision support systems in the medical community. This challenging task is typically treated as a simple binary classification, ignoring temporal dependencies between samples, whereas we propose to exploit this structure. We first introduce a common theoretical framework unifying dynamic survival analysis and early event prediction. Following an analysis of objectives from both fields, we propose Temporal Label Smoothing (TLS), a simpler, yet best-performing method that preserves prediction monotonicity over time. By focusing the objective on areas with a stronger predictive signal, TLS improves performance over all baselines on two large-scale benchmark tasks. Gains are particularly notable along clinically relevant measures, such as event recall at low false-alarm rates. TLS reduces the number of missed events by up to a factor of two over previously used approaches in early event prediction.

This work aims to predict channels in wireless communication systems based on noisy observations, utilizing sequence-to-sequence models with attention (Seq2Seq-attn) and transformer models. Both models are adapted from natural language processing to tackle the complex challenge of channel prediction. Additionally, a new technique called reverse positional encoding is introduced in the transformer model to improve the robustness of the model against varying sequence lengths. Similarly, the encoder outputs of the Seq2Seq-attn model are reversed before applying attention. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed ordering techniques allow the models to better capture the relationships between the channel snapshots within the sequence, irrespective of the sequence length, as opposed to existing methods.

It is desirable for statistical models to detect signals of interest independently of their position. If the data is generated by some smooth process, this additional structure should be taken into account. We introduce a new class of neural networks that are shift invariant and preserve smoothness of the data: functional neural networks (FNNs). For this, we use methods from functional data analysis (FDA) to extend multi-layer perceptrons and convolutional neural networks to functional data. We propose different model architectures, show that the models outperform a benchmark model from FDA in terms of accuracy and successfully use FNNs to classify electroencephalography (EEG) data.

Human observers can learn to recognize new categories of images from a handful of examples, yet doing so with artificial ones remains an open challenge. We hypothesize that data-efficient recognition is enabled by representations which make the variability in natural signals more predictable. We therefore revisit and improve Contrastive Predictive Coding, an unsupervised objective for learning such representations. This new implementation produces features which support state-of-the-art linear classification accuracy on the ImageNet dataset. When used as input for non-linear classification with deep neural networks, this representation allows us to use 2-5x less labels than classifiers trained directly on image pixels. Finally, this unsupervised representation substantially improves transfer learning to object detection on the PASCAL VOC dataset, surpassing fully supervised pre-trained ImageNet classifiers.

We present VIBE, a two-stage Transformer that fuses multi-modal video, audio, and text features to predict fMRI activity. Representations from open-source models (Qwen2.5, BEATs, Whisper, SlowFast, V-JEPA) are merged by a modality-fusion transformer and temporally decoded by a prediction transformer with rotary embeddings. Trained on 65 hours of movie data from the CNeuroMod dataset and ensembled across 20 seeds, VIBE attains mean parcel-wise Pearson correlations of 0.3225 on in-distribution Friends S07 and 0.2125 on six out-of-distribution films. An earlier iteration of the same architecture obtained 0.3198 and 0.2096, respectively, winning Phase-1 and placing second overall in the Algonauts 2025 Challenge.

The process of reconstructing experiences from human brain activity offers a unique lens into how the brain interprets and represents the world. In this paper, we introduce a method for reconstructing music from brain activity, captured using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). Our approach uses either music retrieval or the MusicLM music generation model conditioned on embeddings derived from fMRI data. The generated music resembles the musical stimuli that human subjects experienced, with respect to semantic properties like genre, instrumentation, and mood. We investigate the relationship between different components of MusicLM and brain activity through a voxel-wise encoding modeling analysis. Furthermore, we discuss which brain regions represent information derived from purely textual descriptions of music stimuli. We provide supplementary material including examples of the reconstructed music at https://google-research.github.io/seanet/brain2music

The thud of a bouncing ball, the onset of speech as lips open -- when visual and audio events occur together, it suggests that there might be a common, underlying event that produced both signals. In this paper, we argue that the visual and audio components of a video signal should be modeled jointly using a fused multisensory representation. We propose to learn such a representation in a self-supervised way, by training a neural network to predict whether video frames and audio are temporally aligned. We use this learned representation for three applications: (a) sound source localization, i.e. visualizing the source of sound in a video; (b) audio-visual action recognition; and (c) on/off-screen audio source separation, e.g. removing the off-screen translator's voice from a foreign official's speech. Code, models, and video results are available on our webpage: http://andrewowens.com/multisensory

Recent studies have demonstrated the great power of Transformer models for time series forecasting. One of the key elements that lead to the transformer's success is the channel-independent (CI) strategy to improve the training robustness. However, the ignorance of the correlation among different channels in CI would limit the model's forecasting capacity. In this work, we design a special Transformer, i.e., Channel Aligned Robust Blend Transformer (CARD for short), that addresses key shortcomings of CI type Transformer in time series forecasting. First, CARD introduces a channel-aligned attention structure that allows it to capture both temporal correlations among signals and dynamical dependence among multiple variables over time. Second, in order to efficiently utilize the multi-scale knowledge, we design a token blend module to generate tokens with different resolutions. Third, we introduce a robust loss function for time series forecasting to alleviate the potential overfitting issue. This new loss function weights the importance of forecasting over a finite horizon based on prediction uncertainties. Our evaluation of multiple long-term and short-term forecasting datasets demonstrates that CARD significantly outperforms state-of-the-art time series forecasting methods. The code is available at the following repository:https://github.com/wxie9/CARD

Recent success in training deep neural networks have prompted active investigation into the features learned on their intermediate layers. Such research is difficult because it requires making sense of non-linear computations performed by millions of parameters, but valuable because it increases our ability to understand current models and create improved versions of them. In this paper we investigate the extent to which neural networks exhibit what we call convergent learning, which is when the representations learned by multiple nets converge to a set of features which are either individually similar between networks or where subsets of features span similar low-dimensional spaces. We propose a specific method of probing representations: training multiple networks and then comparing and contrasting their individual, learned representations at the level of neurons or groups of neurons. We begin research into this question using three techniques to approximately align different neural networks on a feature level: a bipartite matching approach that makes one-to-one assignments between neurons, a sparse prediction approach that finds one-to-many mappings, and a spectral clustering approach that finds many-to-many mappings. This initial investigation reveals a few previously unknown properties of neural networks, and we argue that future research into the question of convergent learning will yield many more. The insights described here include (1) that some features are learned reliably in multiple networks, yet other features are not consistently learned; (2) that units learn to span low-dimensional subspaces and, while these subspaces are common to multiple networks, the specific basis vectors learned are not; (3) that the representation codes show evidence of being a mix between a local code and slightly, but not fully, distributed codes across multiple units.

Time series modeling is a well-established problem, which often requires that methods (1) expressively represent complicated dependencies, (2) forecast long horizons, and (3) efficiently train over long sequences. State-space models (SSMs) are classical models for time series, and prior works combine SSMs with deep learning layers for efficient sequence modeling. However, we find fundamental limitations with these prior approaches, proving their SSM representations cannot express autoregressive time series processes. We thus introduce SpaceTime, a new state-space time series architecture that improves all three criteria. For expressivity, we propose a new SSM parameterization based on the companion matrix -- a canonical representation for discrete-time processes -- which enables SpaceTime's SSM layers to learn desirable autoregressive processes. For long horizon forecasting, we introduce a "closed-loop" variation of the companion SSM, which enables SpaceTime to predict many future time-steps by generating its own layer-wise inputs. For efficient training and inference, we introduce an algorithm that reduces the memory and compute of a forward pass with the companion matrix. With sequence length ell and state-space size d, we go from O(d ell) na\"ively to O(d + ell). In experiments, our contributions lead to state-of-the-art results on extensive and diverse benchmarks, with best or second-best AUROC on 6 / 7 ECG and speech time series classification, and best MSE on 14 / 16 Informer forecasting tasks. Furthermore, we find SpaceTime (1) fits AR(p) processes that prior deep SSMs fail on, (2) forecasts notably more accurately on longer horizons than prior state-of-the-art, and (3) speeds up training on real-world ETTh1 data by 73% and 80% relative wall-clock time over Transformers and LSTMs.

In this work, we present a variety of novel information-theoretic generalization bounds for learning algorithms, from the supersample setting of Steinke & Zakynthinou (2020)-the setting of the "conditional mutual information" framework. Our development exploits projecting the loss pair (obtained from a training instance and a testing instance) down to a single number and correlating loss values with a Rademacher sequence (and its shifted variants). The presented bounds include square-root bounds, fast-rate bounds, including those based on variance and sharpness, and bounds for interpolating algorithms etc. We show theoretically or empirically that these bounds are tighter than all information-theoretic bounds known to date on the same supersample setting.

Hope Speech Detection, a task of recognizing positive expressions, has made significant strides recently. However, much of the current works focus on model development without considering the issue of inherent imbalance in the data. Our work revisits this issue in hope-speech detection by introducing focal loss, data augmentation, and pre-processing strategies. Accordingly, we find that introducing focal loss as part of Multilingual-BERT's (M-BERT) training process mitigates the effect of class imbalance and improves overall F1-Macro by 0.11. At the same time, contextual and back-translation-based word augmentation with M-BERT improves results by 0.10 over baseline despite imbalance. Finally, we show that overlapping word removal based on pre-processing, though simple, improves F1-Macro by 0.28. In due process, we present detailed studies depicting various behaviors of each of these strategies and summarize key findings from our empirical results for those interested in getting the most out of M-BERT for hope speech detection under real-world conditions of data imbalance.

This paper addresses a regression problem in which output label values are the results of sensing the magnitude of a phenomenon. A low value of such labels can mean either that the actual magnitude of the phenomenon was low or that the sensor made an incomplete observation. This leads to a bias toward lower values in labels and the resultant learning because labels may have lower values due to incomplete observations, even if the actual magnitude of the phenomenon was high. Moreover, because an incomplete observation does not provide any tags indicating incompleteness, we cannot eliminate or impute them. To address this issue, we propose a learning algorithm that explicitly models incomplete observations corrupted with an asymmetric noise that always has a negative value. We show that our algorithm is unbiased as if it were learned from uncorrupted data that does not involve incomplete observations. We demonstrate the advantages of our algorithm through numerical experiments.

A critical component of a successful language generation pipeline is the decoding algorithm. However, the general principles that should guide the choice of decoding algorithm remain unclear. Previous works only compare decoding algorithms in narrow scenarios and their findings do not generalize across tasks. To better structure the discussion, we introduce a taxonomy that groups decoding strategies based on their implicit assumptions about how well the model's likelihood is aligned with the task-specific notion of utility. We argue that this taxonomy allows a broader view of the decoding problem and can lead to generalizable statements because it is grounded on the interplay between the decoding algorithms and the likelihood-utility misalignment. Specifically, by analyzing the correlation between the likelihood and the utility of predictions across a diverse set of tasks, we provide the first empirical evidence supporting the proposed taxonomy, and a set of principles to structure reasoning when choosing a decoding algorithm. Crucially, our analysis is the first one to relate likelihood-based decoding strategies with strategies that rely on external information such as value-guided methods and prompting, and covers the most diverse set of tasks up-to-date.

Humans recognize anomalies through two aspects: larger patch-wise representation discrepancies and weaker patch-to-normal-patch correlations. However, the previous AD methods didn't sufficiently combine the two complementary aspects to design AD models. To this end, we find that Transformer can ideally satisfy the two aspects as its great power in the unified modeling of patch-wise representations and patch-to-patch correlations. In this paper, we propose a novel AD framework: FOcus-the-Discrepancy (FOD), which can simultaneously spot the patch-wise, intra- and inter-discrepancies of anomalies. The major characteristic of our method is that we renovate the self-attention maps in transformers to Intra-Inter-Correlation (I2Correlation). The I2Correlation contains a two-branch structure to first explicitly establish intra- and inter-image correlations, and then fuses the features of two-branch to spotlight the abnormal patterns. To learn the intra- and inter-correlations adaptively, we propose the RBF-kernel-based target-correlations as learning targets for self-supervised learning. Besides, we introduce an entropy constraint strategy to solve the mode collapse issue in optimization and further amplify the normal-abnormal distinguishability. Extensive experiments on three unsupervised real-world AD benchmarks show the superior performance of our approach. Code will be available at https://github.com/xcyao00/FOD.