Daily Papers

We introduce a Path Shadowing Monte-Carlo method, which provides prediction of future paths, given any generative model. At any given date, it averages future quantities over generated price paths whose past history matches, or `shadows', the actual (observed) history. We test our approach using paths generated from a maximum entropy model of financial prices, based on a recently proposed multi-scale analogue of the standard skewness and kurtosis called `Scattering Spectra'. This model promotes diversity of generated paths while reproducing the main statistical properties of financial prices, including stylized facts on volatility roughness. Our method yields state-of-the-art predictions for future realized volatility and allows one to determine conditional option smiles for the S\&P500 that outperform both the current version of the Path-Dependent Volatility model and the option market itself.

Image captioning aims to describe visual content in natural language. As 'a picture is worth a thousand words', there could be various correct descriptions for an image. However, with maximum likelihood estimation as the training objective, the captioning model is penalized whenever its prediction mismatches with the label. For instance, when the model predicts a word expressing richer semantics than the label, it will be penalized and optimized to prefer more concise expressions, referred to as conciseness optimization. In contrast, predictions that are more concise than labels lead to richness optimization. Such conflicting optimization directions could eventually result in the model generating general descriptions. In this work, we introduce Semipermeable MaxImum Likelihood Estimation (SMILE), which allows richness optimization while blocking conciseness optimization, thus encouraging the model to generate longer captions with more details. Extensive experiments on two mainstream image captioning datasets MSCOCO and Flickr30K demonstrate that SMILE significantly enhances the descriptiveness of generated captions. We further provide in-depth investigations to facilitate a better understanding of how SMILE works.

A variety of recent papers discuss the application of Shapley values, a concept for explaining coalitional games, for feature attribution in machine learning. However, the correct way to connect a machine learning model to a coalitional game has been a source of controversy. The two main approaches that have been proposed differ in the way that they condition on known features, using either (1) an interventional or (2) an observational conditional expectation. While previous work has argued that one of the two approaches is preferable in general, we argue that the choice is application dependent. Furthermore, we argue that the choice comes down to whether it is desirable to be true to the model or true to the data. We use linear models to investigate this choice. After deriving an efficient method for calculating observational conditional expectation Shapley values for linear models, we investigate how correlation in simulated data impacts the convergence of observational conditional expectation Shapley values. Finally, we present two real data examples that we consider to be representative of possible use cases for feature attribution -- (1) credit risk modeling and (2) biological discovery. We show how a different choice of value function performs better in each scenario, and how possible attributions are impacted by modeling choices.

LLMs are often trained with RL from human or AI feedback, yet such methods typically compress nuanced feedback into scalar rewards, discarding much of their richness and inducing scale imbalance. We propose treating verbal feedback as a conditioning signal. Inspired by language priors in text-to-image generation, which enable novel outputs from unseen prompts, we introduce the feedback-conditional policy (FCP). FCP learns directly from response-feedback pairs, approximating the feedback-conditional posterior through maximum likelihood training on offline data. We further develop an online bootstrapping stage where the policy generates under positive conditions and receives fresh feedback to refine itself. This reframes feedback-driven learning as conditional generation rather than reward optimization, offering a more expressive way for LLMs to directly learn from verbal feedback. Our code is available at https://github.com/sail-sg/feedback-conditional-policy.

We present Universal Conditional Logic (UCL), a mathematical framework for prompt optimization that transforms prompt engineering from heuristic practice into systematic optimization. Through systematic evaluation (N=305, 11 models, 4 iterations), we demonstrate significant token reduction (29.8%, t(10)=6.36, p < 0.001, Cohen's d = 2.01) with corresponding cost savings. UCL's structural overhead function O_s(A) explains version-specific performance differences through the Over-Specification Paradox: beyond threshold S* = 0.509, additional specification degrades performance quadratically. Core mechanisms -- indicator functions (I_i in {0,1}), structural overhead (O_s = gamma * sum(ln C_k)), early binding -- are validated. Notably, optimal UCL configuration varies by model architecture -- certain models (e.g., Llama 4 Scout) require version-specific adaptations (V4.1). This work establishes UCL as a calibratable framework for efficient LLM interaction, with model-family-specific optimization as a key research direction.

Language models (LMs) are pretrained to imitate internet text, including content that would violate human preferences if generated by an LM: falsehoods, offensive comments, personally identifiable information, low-quality or buggy code, and more. Here, we explore alternative objectives for pretraining LMs in a way that also guides them to generate text aligned with human preferences. We benchmark five objectives for pretraining with human feedback across three tasks and study how they affect the trade-off between alignment and capabilities of pretrained LMs. We find a Pareto-optimal and simple approach among those we explored: conditional training, or learning distribution over tokens conditional on their human preference scores given by a reward model. Conditional training reduces the rate of undesirable content by up to an order of magnitude, both when generating without a prompt and with an adversarially-chosen prompt. Moreover, conditional training maintains the downstream task performance of standard LM pretraining, both before and after task-specific finetuning. Pretraining with human feedback results in much better preference satisfaction than standard LM pretraining followed by finetuning with feedback, i.e., learning and then unlearning undesirable behavior. Our results suggest that we should move beyond imitation learning when pretraining LMs and incorporate human preferences from the start of training.

Laughter is one of the most expressive and natural aspects of human speech, conveying emotions, social cues, and humor. However, most text-to-speech (TTS) systems lack the ability to produce realistic and appropriate laughter sounds, limiting their applications and user experience. While there have been prior works to generate natural laughter, they fell short in terms of controlling the timing and variety of the laughter to be generated. In this work, we propose ELaTE, a zero-shot TTS that can generate natural laughing speech of any speaker based on a short audio prompt with precise control of laughter timing and expression. Specifically, ELaTE works on the audio prompt to mimic the voice characteristic, the text prompt to indicate the contents of the generated speech, and the input to control the laughter expression, which can be either the start and end times of laughter, or the additional audio prompt that contains laughter to be mimicked. We develop our model based on the foundation of conditional flow-matching-based zero-shot TTS, and fine-tune it with frame-level representation from a laughter detector as additional conditioning. With a simple scheme to mix small-scale laughter-conditioned data with large-scale pre-training data, we demonstrate that a pre-trained zero-shot TTS model can be readily fine-tuned to generate natural laughter with precise controllability, without losing any quality of the pre-trained zero-shot TTS model. Through the evaluations, we show that ELaTE can generate laughing speech with significantly higher quality and controllability compared to conventional models. See https://aka.ms/elate/ for demo samples.

Reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) has demonstrated great promise in aligning large language models (LLMs) with human preference. Depending on the availability of preference data, both online and offline RLHF are active areas of investigation. A key bottleneck is understanding how to incorporate uncertainty estimation in the reward function learned from the preference data for RLHF, regardless of how the preference data is collected. While the principles of optimism or pessimism under uncertainty are well-established in standard reinforcement learning (RL), a practically-implementable and theoretically-grounded form amenable to large language models is not yet available, as standard techniques for constructing confidence intervals become intractable under arbitrary policy parameterizations. In this paper, we introduce a unified approach to online and offline RLHF -- value-incentivized preference optimization (VPO) -- which regularizes the maximum-likelihood estimate of the reward function with the corresponding value function, modulated by a sign to indicate whether the optimism or pessimism is chosen. VPO also directly optimizes the policy with implicit reward modeling, and therefore shares a simpler RLHF pipeline similar to direct preference optimization. Theoretical guarantees of VPO are provided for both online and offline settings, matching the rates of their standard RL counterparts. Moreover, experiments on text summarization and dialog verify the practicality and effectiveness of VPO.

There has been an increasing research interest in developing specialized dialogue systems that can offer mental health support. However, gathering large-scale and real-life multi-turn conversations for mental health support poses challenges due to the sensitivity of personal information, as well as the time and cost involved. To address these issues, we introduce the SMILE approach, an inclusive language expansion technique that employs ChatGPT to extend public single-turn dialogues into multi-turn ones. Our research first presents a preliminary exploratory study that validates the effectiveness of the SMILE approach. Furthermore, we conduct a comprehensive and systematic contrastive analysis of datasets generated with and without the SMILE approach, demonstrating that the SMILE method results in a large-scale, diverse, and close-to-real-life multi-turn mental health support conversation corpus, including dialog topics, lexical and semantic features. Finally, we use the collected corpus (SMILECHAT) to develop a more effective dialogue system that offers emotional support and constructive suggestions in multi-turn conversations for mental health support.

Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback has emerged as a standard for aligning diffusion models. However, we identify a fundamental limitation in the standard DPO formulation because it relies on the Bradley-Terry model to aggregate diverse evaluation axes like aesthetic quality and semantic alignment into a single scalar reward. This aggregation creates a reward conflict where the model is forced to unlearn desirable features of a specific dimension if they appear in a globally non-preferred sample. To address this issue, we propose Multi Reward Conditional DPO (MCDPO). This method resolves reward conflicts by introducing a disentangled Bradley-Terry objective. MCDPO explicitly injects a preference outcome vector as a condition during training, which allows the model to learn the correct optimization direction for each reward axis independently within a single network. We further introduce dimensional reward dropout to ensure balanced optimization across dimensions. Extensive experiments on Stable Diffusion 1.5 and SDXL demonstrate that MCDPO achieves superior performance on benchmarks. Notably, our conditional framework enables dynamic and multiple-axis control at inference time using Classifier Free Guidance to amplify specific reward dimensions without additional training or external reward models.

Generating humorous memes is a challenging multimodal task that moves beyond direct image-to-caption supervision. It requires a nuanced reasoning over visual content, contextual cues, and subjective humor. To bridge this gap between visual perception and humorous punchline creation, we propose HUMOR}, a novel framework that guides VLMs through hierarchical reasoning and aligns them with group-wise human preferences. First, HUMOR employs a hierarchical, multi-path Chain-of-Thought (CoT): the model begins by identifying a template-level intent, then explores diverse reasoning paths under different contexts, and finally anchors onto a high-quality, context-specific path. This CoT supervision, which traces back from ground-truth captions, enhances reasoning diversity. We further analyze that this multi-path exploration with anchoring maintains a high expected humor quality, under the practical condition that high-quality paths retain significant probability mass. Second, to capture subjective humor, we train a pairwise reward model that operates within groups of memes sharing the same template. Following established theory, this approach ensures a consistent and robust proxy for human preference, even with subjective and noisy labels. The reward model then enables a group-wise reinforcement learning optimization, guaranteeing providing a theoretical guarantee for monotonic improvement within the trust region. Extensive experiments show that HUMOR empowers various VLMs with superior reasoning diversity, more reliable preference alignment, and higher overall meme quality. Beyond memes, our work presents a general training paradigm for open-ended, human-aligned multimodal generation, where success is guided by comparative judgment within coherent output group.

In this paper, we focus on the task of conditional image generation, where an image is synthesized according to user instructions. The critical challenge underpinning this task is ensuring both the fidelity of the generated images and their semantic alignment with the provided conditions. To tackle this issue, previous studies have employed supervised perceptual losses derived from pre-trained models, i.e., reward models, to enforce alignment between the condition and the generated result. However, we observe one inherent shortcoming: considering the diversity of synthesized images, the reward model usually provides inaccurate feedback when encountering newly generated data, which can undermine the training process. To address this limitation, we propose an uncertainty-aware reward modeling, called Ctrl-U, including uncertainty estimation and uncertainty-aware regularization, designed to reduce the adverse effects of imprecise feedback from the reward model. Given the inherent cognitive uncertainty within reward models, even images generated under identical conditions often result in a relatively large discrepancy in reward loss. Inspired by the observation, we explicitly leverage such prediction variance as an uncertainty indicator. Based on the uncertainty estimation, we regularize the model training by adaptively rectifying the reward. In particular, rewards with lower uncertainty receive higher loss weights, while those with higher uncertainty are given reduced weights to allow for larger variability. The proposed uncertainty regularization facilitates reward fine-tuning through consistency construction. Extensive experiments validate the effectiveness of our methodology in improving the controllability and generation quality, as well as its scalability across diverse conditional scenarios. Code will soon be available at https://grenoble-zhang.github.io/Ctrl-U-Page/.

LLMs are ideal for decision-making thanks to their ability to reason over long contexts. However, challenges arise when processing speech transcripts that describe complex scenarios, as they are verbose and include repetition, hedging, and vagueness. E.g., during a company's earnings call, an executive might project a positive revenue outlook to reassure investors, despite uncertainty regarding future earnings. It is crucial for LLMs to incorporate this uncertainty systematically when making decisions. In this paper, we introduce DeFine, a modular framework that constructs probabilistic factor profiles from complex scenarios. It then integrates these profiles with analogical reasoning, leveraging insights from similar past experiences to guide LLMs in making critical decisions in new situations. Our framework separates the tasks of quantifying uncertainty and incorporating it into LLM decision-making. This approach is particularly useful in areas such as consulting and financial deliberation, where making decisions under uncertainty is vital.

We define a probabilistic programming language for Gaussian random variables with a first-class exact conditioning construct. We give operational, denotational and equational semantics for this language, establishing convenient properties like exchangeability of conditions. Conditioning on equality of continuous random variables is nontrivial, as the exact observation may have probability zero; this is Borel's paradox. Using categorical formulations of conditional probability, we show that the good properties of our language are not particular to Gaussians, but can be derived from universal properties, thus generalizing to wider settings. We define the Cond construction, which internalizes conditioning as a morphism, providing general compositional semantics for probabilistic programming with exact conditioning.

Smiles and laughs detection systems have attracted a lot of attention in the past decade contributing to the improvement of human-agent interaction systems. But very few considered these expressions as distinct, although no prior work clearly proves them to belong to the same category or not. In this work, we present a deep learning-based multimodal smile and laugh classification system, considering them as two different entities. We compare the use of audio and vision-based models as well as a fusion approach. We show that, as expected, the fusion leads to a better generalization on unseen data. We also present an in-depth analysis of the behavior of these models on the smiles and laughs intensity levels. The analyses on the intensity levels show that the relationship between smiles and laughs might not be as simple as a binary one or even grouping them in a single category, and so, a more complex approach should be taken when dealing with them. We also tackle the problem of limited resources by showing that transfer learning allows the models to improve the detection of confusing intensity levels.

The implied volatility smile surface is the basis of option pricing, and the dynamic evolution of the option volatility smile surface is difficult to predict. In this paper, attention mechanism is introduced into LSTM, and a volatility surface prediction method combining deep learning and attention mechanism is pioneeringly established. LSTM's forgetting gate makes it have strong generalization ability, and its feedback structure enables it to characterize the long memory of financial volatility. The application of attention mechanism in LSTM networks can significantly enhance the ability of LSTM networks to select input features. The experimental results show that the two strategies constructed using the predicted implied volatility surfaces have higher returns and Sharpe ratios than that the volatility surfaces are not predicted. This paper confirms that the use of AI to predict the implied volatility surface has theoretical and economic value. The research method provides a new reference for option pricing and strategy.

Diffusion models are a class of probabilistic generative models that have been widely used as a prior for image processing tasks like text conditional generation and inpainting. We demonstrate that these models can be adapted to make predictions and provide uncertainty quantification for chaotic dynamical systems. In these applications, diffusion models can implicitly represent knowledge about outliers and extreme events; however, querying that knowledge through conditional sampling or measuring probabilities is surprisingly difficult. Existing methods for conditional sampling at inference time seek mainly to enforce the constraints, which is insufficient to match the statistics of the distribution or compute the probability of the chosen events. To achieve these ends, optimally one would use the conditional score function, but its computation is typically intractable. In this work, we develop a probabilistic approximation scheme for the conditional score function which provably converges to the true distribution as the noise level decreases. With this scheme we are able to sample conditionally on nonlinear userdefined events at inference time, and matches data statistics even when sampling from the tails of the distribution.

Despite the recent advances of the artificial intelligence, building social intelligence remains a challenge. Among social signals, laughter is one of the distinctive expressions that occurs during social interactions between humans. In this work, we tackle a new challenge for machines to understand the rationale behind laughter in video, Video Laugh Reasoning. We introduce this new task to explain why people laugh in a particular video and a dataset for this task. Our proposed dataset, SMILE, comprises video clips and language descriptions of why people laugh. We propose a baseline by leveraging the reasoning capacity of large language models (LLMs) with textual video representation. Experiments show that our baseline can generate plausible explanations for laughter. We further investigate the scalability of our baseline by probing other video understanding tasks and in-the-wild videos. We release our dataset, code, and model checkpoints on https://github.com/SMILE-data/SMILE.

Policy gradient computes a backward pass for every sample, even though the backward pass is expensive and most samples carry little learning value. The Delightful Policy Gradient (DG) provides a forward-pass signal of learning value: delight, the product of advantage and surprisal (negative log-probability). We introduce the Kondo gate, which compares delight against a compute price and pays for a backward pass only when the sample is worth it, thereby tracing a quality--cost Pareto frontier. In bandits, zero-price gating preserves useful gradient signal while removing perpendicular noise, and delight is a more reliable screening signal than additive combinations of value and surprise. On MNIST and transformer token reversal, the Kondo gate skips most backward passes while retaining nearly all of DG's learning quality, with gains that grow as problems get harder and backward passes become more expensive. Because the gate tolerates approximate delight, a cheap forward pass can screen samples before expensive backpropagation, suggesting a speculative-decoding-for-training paradigm.

Video prediction aims to generate realistic future frames by learning dynamic visual patterns. One fundamental challenge is to deal with future uncertainty: How should a model behave when there are multiple correct, equally probable future? We propose an Appearance-Motion Conditional GAN to address this challenge. We provide appearance and motion information as conditions that specify how the future may look like, reducing the level of uncertainty. Our model consists of a generator, two discriminators taking charge of appearance and motion pathways, and a perceptual ranking module that encourages videos of similar conditions to look similar. To train our model, we develop a novel conditioning scheme that consists of different combinations of appearance and motion conditions. We evaluate our model using facial expression and human action datasets and report favorable results compared to existing methods.

Masked video modeling, such as VideoMAE, is an effective paradigm for video self-supervised learning (SSL). However, they are primarily based on reconstructing pixel-level details on natural videos which have substantial temporal redundancy, limiting their capability for semantic representation and sufficient encoding of motion dynamics. To address these issues, this paper introduces a novel SSL approach for video representation learning, dubbed as SMILE, by infusing both spatial and motion semantics. In SMILE, we leverage image-language pretrained models, such as CLIP, to guide the learning process with their high-level spatial semantics. We enhance the representation of motion by introducing synthetic motion patterns in the training data, allowing the model to capture more complex and dynamic content. Furthermore, using SMILE, we establish a new self-supervised video learning paradigm capable of learning strong video representations without requiring any natural video data. We have carried out extensive experiments on 7 datasets with various downstream scenarios. SMILE surpasses current state-of-the-art SSL methods, showcasing its effectiveness in learning more discriminative and generalizable video representations. Code is available: https://github.com/fmthoker/SMILE