Daily Papers

Data replay is a successful incremental learning technique for images. It prevents catastrophic forgetting by keeping a reservoir of previous data, original or synthesized, to ensure the model retains past knowledge while adapting to novel concepts. However, its application in the video domain is rudimentary, as it simply stores frame exemplars for action recognition. This paper presents the first exploration of video data replay techniques for incremental action segmentation, focusing on action temporal modeling. We propose a Temporally Coherent Action (TCA) model, which represents actions using a generative model instead of storing individual frames. The integration of a conditioning variable that captures temporal coherence allows our model to understand the evolution of action features over time. Therefore, action segments generated by TCA for replay are diverse and temporally coherent. In a 10-task incremental setup on the Breakfast dataset, our approach achieves significant increases in accuracy for up to 22% compared to the baselines.

We present a neural framework for learning conditional optimal transport (OT) maps between probability distributions. Our approach introduces a conditioning mechanism capable of processing both categorical and continuous conditioning variables simultaneously. At the core of our method lies a hypernetwork that generates transport layer parameters based on these inputs, creating adaptive mappings that outperform simpler conditioning methods. Comprehensive ablation studies demonstrate the superior performance of our method over baseline configurations. Furthermore, we showcase an application to global sensitivity analysis, offering high performance in computing OT-based sensitivity indices. This work advances the state-of-the-art in conditional optimal transport, enabling broader application of optimal transport principles to complex, high-dimensional domains such as generative modeling and black-box model explainability.

Conditional contrastive learning frameworks consider the conditional sampling procedure that constructs positive or negative data pairs conditioned on specific variables. Fair contrastive learning constructs negative pairs, for example, from the same gender (conditioning on sensitive information), which in turn reduces undesirable information from the learned representations; weakly supervised contrastive learning constructs positive pairs with similar annotative attributes (conditioning on auxiliary information), which in turn are incorporated into the representations. Although conditional contrastive learning enables many applications, the conditional sampling procedure can be challenging if we cannot obtain sufficient data pairs for some values of the conditioning variable. This paper presents Conditional Contrastive Learning with Kernel (CCL-K) that converts existing conditional contrastive objectives into alternative forms that mitigate the insufficient data problem. Instead of sampling data according to the value of the conditioning variable, CCL-K uses the Kernel Conditional Embedding Operator that samples data from all available data and assigns weights to each sampled data given the kernel similarity between the values of the conditioning variable. We conduct experiments using weakly supervised, fair, and hard negatives contrastive learning, showing CCL-K outperforms state-of-the-art baselines.

MeanFlow (MF) has recently been established as a framework for one-step generative modeling. However, its ``fastforward'' nature introduces key challenges in both the training objective and the guidance mechanism. First, the original MF's training target depends not only on the underlying ground-truth fields but also on the network itself. To address this issue, we recast the objective as a loss on the instantaneous velocity v, re-parameterized by a network that predicts the average velocity u. Our reformulation yields a more standard regression problem and improves the training stability. Second, the original MF fixes the classifier-free guidance scale during training, which sacrifices flexibility. We tackle this issue by formulating guidance as explicit conditioning variables, thereby retaining flexibility at test time. The diverse conditions are processed through in-context conditioning, which reduces model size and benefits performance. Overall, our improved MeanFlow (iMF) method, trained entirely from scratch, achieves 1.72 FID with a single function evaluation (1-NFE) on ImageNet 256times256. iMF substantially outperforms prior methods of this kind and closes the gap with multi-step methods while using no distillation. We hope our work will further advance fastforward generative modeling as a stand-alone paradigm.

Neural posterior estimation has emerged as a powerful tool for amortized inference, with growing adoption across scientific and applied domains. In many of these applications, the conditioning variable is a set of observations whose elements depend not only on the target but also on unknown factors shared across the set. Optimal inference therefore requires treating the set jointly, which in turn requires training the estimator at the deployment set size -- a regime where memory and compute quickly become prohibitive. We introduce a simple, theoretically grounded strategy that decouples representation learning from posterior modeling. Our method trains a mean-pool Deep Set on sets of size at most two, producing an encoder that generalizes to arbitrary set sizes. The inference head is then finetuned on pre-aggregated embeddings, making training cost essentially independent of the deployment set size N. Across scalar, image, multi-view 3D, molecular, and high-dimensional conditional generation benchmarks with N in the thousands, our approach matches or outperforms standard baselines at a fraction of the compute.

Aiming to generalize the label knowledge from a source domain with continuous outputs to an unlabeled target domain, Domain Adaptation Regression (DAR) is developed for complex practical learning problems. However, due to the continuity problem in regression, existing conditional distribution alignment theory and methods with discrete prior, which are proven to be effective in classification settings, are no longer applicable. In this work, focusing on the feasibility problems in DAR, we establish the sufficiency theory for the regression model, which shows the generalization error can be sufficiently dominated by the cross-domain conditional discrepancy. Further, to characterize conditional discrepancy with continuous conditioning variable, a novel Conditional Operator Discrepancy (COD) is proposed, which admits the metric property on conditional distributions via the kernel embedding theory. Finally, to minimize the discrepancy, a COD-based conditional invariant representation learning model is proposed, and the reformulation is derived to show that reasonable modifications on moment statistics can further improve the discriminability of the adaptation model. Extensive experiments on standard DAR datasets verify the validity of theoretical results and the superiority over SOTA DAR methods.

Visual navigation ability is strongly tied to its underlying representation of the world. Unlike classical 3D maps that require globally-consistent geometry, image- or object-relative topological graphs almost entirely do away with geometric understanding. But, this comes at the cost of navigation capability, often limiting it to merely teach-and-repeat. In this work, we propose a novel map representation in the form of pixel-relative connectivity, which is geometrically accurate but does not require global geometric consistency. Inspired by recent progress in 3D grounded image matching, we construct a map from an image sequence through inter-image connectivity based on pixel correspondences in the relative 3D coordinate systems of individual image pairs. We then use this pixel-level graph to perform global path planning by approximating and sparsifying intra-image pixel connectivity. Through this, we derive a ''WayPixel Costmap'' representation and train a controller conditioned on it to predict a trajectory rollout. We show that this dense pixel-level costmap based on relative geometry is a more accurate conditioning variable for control prediction than its image- and object-level counterparts. This enables a highly capable navigation system, as validated on four types of navigation tasks in the simulator and through real world demonstrations.

Deep neural networks have brought remarkable breakthroughs in medical image analysis. However, due to their data-hungry nature, the modest dataset sizes in medical imaging projects might be hindering their full potential. Generating synthetic data provides a promising alternative, allowing to complement training datasets and conducting medical image research at a larger scale. Diffusion models recently have caught the attention of the computer vision community by producing photorealistic synthetic images. In this study, we explore using Latent Diffusion Models to generate synthetic images from high-resolution 3D brain images. We used T1w MRI images from the UK Biobank dataset (N=31,740) to train our models to learn about the probabilistic distribution of brain images, conditioned on covariables, such as age, sex, and brain structure volumes. We found that our models created realistic data, and we could use the conditioning variables to control the data generation effectively. Besides that, we created a synthetic dataset with 100,000 brain images and made it openly available to the scientific community.

Recent improvements in conditional generative modeling have made it possible to generate high-quality images from language descriptions alone. We investigate whether these methods can directly address the problem of sequential decision-making. We view decision-making not through the lens of reinforcement learning (RL), but rather through conditional generative modeling. To our surprise, we find that our formulation leads to policies that can outperform existing offline RL approaches across standard benchmarks. By modeling a policy as a return-conditional diffusion model, we illustrate how we may circumvent the need for dynamic programming and subsequently eliminate many of the complexities that come with traditional offline RL. We further demonstrate the advantages of modeling policies as conditional diffusion models by considering two other conditioning variables: constraints and skills. Conditioning on a single constraint or skill during training leads to behaviors at test-time that can satisfy several constraints together or demonstrate a composition of skills. Our results illustrate that conditional generative modeling is a powerful tool for decision-making.

Convergent Cross Mapping (CCM) is a powerful method for detecting causality in coupled nonlinear dynamical systems, providing a model-free approach to capture dynamic causal interactions. Partial Cross Mapping (PCM) was introduced as an extension of CCM to address indirect causality in three-variable systems by comparing cross-mapping quality between direct cause-effect mapping and indirect mapping through an intermediate conditioning variable. However, PCM remains limited to univariate delay embeddings in its cross-mapping processes. In this work, we extend PCM to the multivariate setting, introducing multiPCM, which leverages multivariate embeddings to more effectively distinguish indirect causal relationships. We further propose a multivariate cross-mapping framework (MXMap) for causal discovery in dynamical systems. This two-phase framework combines (1) pairwise CCM tests to establish an initial causal graph and (2) multiPCM to refine the graph by pruning indirect causal connections. Through experiments on simulated data and the ERA5 Reanalysis weather dataset, we demonstrate the effectiveness of MXMap. Additionally, MXMap is compared against several baseline methods, showing advantages in accuracy and causal graph refinement.

Turbulence is a central testbed for machine learning on physical dynamics because its governing laws are known exactly. However, most existing studies remain in 2D, while 3D turbulence has fundamentally different physics and is far more costly to simulate. Existing 3D resources also typically provide only one realization per configuration, making it difficult to distinguish learning the dynamics from fitting the statistics of a single flow. In this paper, we introduce TIDE (Turbulent Incompressible DNS Ensembles), a 256^3 DNS corpus and benchmark for 3D incompressible turbulence, with 15 configurations on eight controlled axes, independent ensembles, pressure fields, and equation-level verification. The benchmark includes five tasks, standardized learned baselines, controlled generalization splits, and physical-fidelity metrics alongside pointwise error. Across the main forecasting configurations, current learned models barely outperform persistence and still make about twice the error of a spectral solver given the true equations. Moreover, lower pointwise error can coincide with severely distorted small-scale dynamics, showing that accuracy alone does not ensure physical fidelity. Generalization results further show that most regime shifts reflect limited training coverage, whereas forced-to-decay transfer exposes a missing conditioning variable: operators trained under forcing continue to predict driven evolution when the external drive is removed. Closing these accuracy, fidelity, and conditioning gaps is the central open problem made measurable by TIDE.

Recent advances in Conditional Diffusion Models have led to substantial capabilities in various domains. However, understanding the impact of variations in the initial seed vector remains an underexplored area of concern. Particularly, latent-based diffusion models display inconsistencies in image generation under standard conditions when initialized with suboptimal initial seed vectors. To understand the impact of the initial seed vector on generated samples, we propose a reliability evaluation framework that evaluates the generated samples of a diffusion model when the initial seed vector is subjected to various synthetic shifts. Our results indicate that slight manipulations to the initial seed vector of the state-of-the-art Stable Diffusion (Rombach et al., 2022) can lead to significant disturbances in the generated samples, consequently creating images without the effect of conditioning variables. In contrast, GLIDE (Nichol et al., 2022) stands out in generating reliable samples even when the initial seed vector is transformed. Thus, our study sheds light on the importance of the selection and the impact of the initial seed vector in the latent-based diffusion model.

Recent advances in generative modeling with diffusion processes (DPs) enabled breakthroughs in image synthesis. Despite impressive image quality, these models have various prompt compliance problems, including low recall in generating multiple objects, difficulty in generating text in images, and meeting constraints like object locations and pose. For fine-grained editing and manipulation, they also require fine-grained semantic or instance maps that are tedious to produce manually. While prompt compliance can be enhanced by addition of loss functions at inference, this is time consuming and does not scale to complex scenes. To overcome these limitations, this work introduces a new family of Factor Graph Diffusion Models (FG-DMs) that models the joint distribution of images and conditioning variables, such as semantic, sketch, depth or normal maps via a factor graph decomposition. This joint structure has several advantages, including support for efficient sampling based prompt compliance schemes, which produce images of high object recall, semi-automated fine-grained editing, text-based editing of conditions with noise inversion, explainability at intermediate levels, ability to produce labeled datasets for the training of downstream models such as segmentation or depth, training with missing data, and continual learning where new conditioning variables can be added with minimal or no modifications to the existing structure. We propose an implementation of FG-DMs by adapting a pre-trained Stable Diffusion (SD) model to implement all FG-DM factors, using only COCO dataset, and show that it is effective in generating images with 15\% higher recall than SD while retaining its generalization ability. We introduce an attention distillation loss that encourages consistency among the attention maps of all factors, improving the fidelity of the generated conditions and image.

Voice cloning is the task of learning to synthesize the voice of an unseen speaker from a few samples. While current voice cloning methods achieve promising results in Text-to-Speech (TTS) synthesis for a new voice, these approaches lack the ability to control the expressiveness of synthesized audio. In this work, we propose a controllable voice cloning method that allows fine-grained control over various style aspects of the synthesized speech for an unseen speaker. We achieve this by explicitly conditioning the speech synthesis model on a speaker encoding, pitch contour and latent style tokens during training. Through both quantitative and qualitative evaluations, we show that our framework can be used for various expressive voice cloning tasks using only a few transcribed or untranscribed speech samples for a new speaker. These cloning tasks include style transfer from a reference speech, synthesizing speech directly from text, and fine-grained style control by manipulating the style conditioning variables during inference.

Accurately predicting immunotherapy response in Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) remains a critical unmet need. Existing radiomics and deep learning-based predictive models rely primarily on pre-treatment imaging to predict categorical response outcomes, limiting their ability to capture the complex morphological and textural transformations induced by immunotherapy. This study introduces ImmunoDiff, an anatomy-aware diffusion model designed to synthesize post-treatment CT scans from baseline imaging while incorporating clinically relevant constraints. The proposed framework integrates anatomical priors, specifically lobar and vascular structures, to enhance fidelity in CT synthesis. Additionally, we introduce a novel cbi-Adapter, a conditioning module that ensures pairwise-consistent multimodal integration of imaging and clinical data embeddings, to refine the generative process. Additionally, a clinical variable conditioning mechanism is introduced, leveraging demographic data, blood-based biomarkers, and PD-L1 expression to refine the generative process. Evaluations on an in-house NSCLC cohort treated with immune checkpoint inhibitors demonstrate a 21.24% improvement in balanced accuracy for response prediction and a 0.03 increase in c-index for survival prediction. Code will be released soon.

Classifier-free guidance (CFG) is a key technique for improving conditional generation in diffusion models, enabling more accurate control while enhancing sample quality. It is natural to extend this technique to video diffusion, which generates video conditioned on a variable number of context frames, collectively referred to as history. However, we find two key challenges to guiding with variable-length history: architectures that only support fixed-size conditioning, and the empirical observation that CFG-style history dropout performs poorly. To address this, we propose the Diffusion Forcing Transformer (DFoT), a video diffusion architecture and theoretically grounded training objective that jointly enable conditioning on a flexible number of history frames. We then introduce History Guidance, a family of guidance methods uniquely enabled by DFoT. We show that its simplest form, vanilla history guidance, already significantly improves video generation quality and temporal consistency. A more advanced method, history guidance across time and frequency further enhances motion dynamics, enables compositional generalization to out-of-distribution history, and can stably roll out extremely long videos. Website: https://boyuan.space/history-guidance

Echocardiography is widely used for assessing cardiac function, where clinically meaningful parameters such as left-ventricular ejection fraction (EF) play a central role in diagnosis and management. Generative models capable of synthesising realistic echocardiogram videos with explicit control over such parameters are valuable for data augmentation, counterfactual analysis, and specialist training. However, existing approaches typically rely on computationally expensive multi-step sampling and aggressive temporal normalisation, limiting efficiency and applicability to heterogeneous real-world data. We introduce EchoLVFM, a one-step latent video flow-matching framework for controllable echocardiogram generation. Operating in the latent space, EchoLVFM synthesises temporally coherent videos in a single inference step, achieving a sim 50times improvement in sampling efficiency compared to multi-step flow baselines while maintaining visual fidelity. The model supports global conditioning on clinical variables, demonstrated through precise control of EF, and enables reconstruction and counterfactual generation from partially observed sequences. A masked conditioning strategy further removes fixed-length constraints, allowing shorter sequences to be retained rather than discarded. We evaluate EchoLVFM on the CAMUS dataset under challenging single-frame conditioning. Quantitative and qualitative results demonstrate competitive video quality, strong EF adherence, and 57.9% discrimination accuracy by expert clinicians which is close to chance. These findings indicate that efficient, one-step flow matching can enable practical, controllable echocardiogram video synthesis without sacrificing fidelity. Code available at: https://github.com/EngEmmanuel/EchoLVFM

Inference-time alignment of pretrained text-to-image models is typically performed along a single control axis, such as classifier-free guidance, attention editing, or reward-based latent perturbations. This limitation prevents modeling joint dependencies between conditioning and latent variables and hinders transfer across generative transports. We propose PG-MAP, a training-free framework that formulates inference-time alignment as a trajectory-level Gibbs-MAP / proximal energy optimization over the conditioning c and latent state z_t via a forward-consistency coupling, optionally guided by a frozen preference reward. This joint formulation enables coordinated updates across modalities while remaining compatible with both diffusion and flow-matching models through transport-specific adaptations. Across diffusion backbones (SD~1.5, SDXL), PG-MAP consistently improves alignment metrics such as PickScore and Aesthetic, and can be effectively combined with tuned classifier-free guidance to achieve the strongest overall performance. On flow-matching models (SD3.5-medium), the framework reduces to a latent-only variant, achieving 91.9% PickScore and 75.7% HPS win rates against a static baseline, with controlled experiments ruling out noise-related artifacts. Human evaluations further confirm consistent preference over strong baselines, including tuned CFG and compute-matched universal guidance. Finally, an oracle-routing analysis shows that the relative importance of conditioning and latent optimization depends on prompt types, surfacing further headroom that a per-prompt selector could exploit.

We present DeGAS, a differentiable Gaussian approximate semantics for loopless probabilistic programs that enables sample-free, gradient-based optimization in models with both continuous and discrete components. DeGAS evaluates programs under a Gaussian-mixture semantics and replaces measure-zero predicates and discrete branches with a vanishing smoothing, yielding closed-form expressions for posterior and path probabilities. We prove differentiability of these quantities with respect to program parameters, enabling end-to-end optimization via standard automatic differentiation, without Monte Carlo estimators. On thirteen benchmark programs, DeGAS achieves accuracy and runtime competitive with variational inference and MCMC. Importantly, it reliably tackles optimization problems where sampling-based baselines fail to converge due to conditioning involving continuous variables.

Denoising diffusion probabilistic models (DDPM) have shown remarkable performance in unconditional image generation. However, due to the stochasticity of the generative process in DDPM, it is challenging to generate images with the desired semantics. In this work, we propose Iterative Latent Variable Refinement (ILVR), a method to guide the generative process in DDPM to generate high-quality images based on a given reference image. Here, the refinement of the generative process in DDPM enables a single DDPM to sample images from various sets directed by the reference image. The proposed ILVR method generates high-quality images while controlling the generation. The controllability of our method allows adaptation of a single DDPM without any additional learning in various image generation tasks, such as generation from various downsampling factors, multi-domain image translation, paint-to-image, and editing with scribbles.

We define a probabilistic programming language for Gaussian random variables with a first-class exact conditioning construct. We give operational, denotational and equational semantics for this language, establishing convenient properties like exchangeability of conditions. Conditioning on equality of continuous random variables is nontrivial, as the exact observation may have probability zero; this is Borel's paradox. Using categorical formulations of conditional probability, we show that the good properties of our language are not particular to Gaussians, but can be derived from universal properties, thus generalizing to wider settings. We define the Cond construction, which internalizes conditioning as a morphism, providing general compositional semantics for probabilistic programming with exact conditioning.

Variable-order Markov models generate sequences over a finite alphabet by conditioning each symbol on the longest available suffix of the generated history. Regular constraints, by contrast, describe finite-horizon control requirements by an automaton: fixed positions, forced endings, metrical patterns, and forbidden copied fragments are all special cases. Existing exact methods already handle regular constraints with belief propagation for first-order Markov chains. The contribution here is the variable-order extension: identifying the state space on which the existing BP-regular machinery must be run when the generator is a variable-order/backoff model. A first-order constraint layer can enforce useful support conditions, but it computes future mass after merging histories that a variable-order generator deliberately keeps distinct. We formalize this mismatch and give the sparse construction obtained by replacing the first-order Markov state with the observed context state, then taking the standard product with the regular constraint automaton. For a fixed trained context graph and automaton, inference is linear in the sequence horizon; in general it is polynomial in the number of reachable product edges. This gives the correct variable-order distribution conditioned on regular constraints without expanding to all K-tuples. The same finite-source interface supports reversible data augmentation by inverse count lookup, matching materialized transposition augmentation without storing transformed corpora. We also separate exact BP inference from generation-time backoff policies, such as singleton avoidance, whose stochastic semantics must be made explicit if exactness is claimed.

We present a conditional variational auto-encoder (VAE) which, to avoid the substantial cost of training from scratch, uses an architecture and training objective capable of leveraging a foundation model in the form of a pretrained unconditional VAE. To train the conditional VAE, we only need to train an artifact to perform amortized inference over the unconditional VAE's latent variables given a conditioning input. We demonstrate our approach on tasks including image inpainting, for which it outperforms state-of-the-art GAN-based approaches at faithfully representing the inherent uncertainty. We conclude by describing a possible application of our inpainting model, in which it is used to perform Bayesian experimental design for the purpose of guiding a sensor.

We present Bit Diffusion: a simple and generic approach for generating discrete data with continuous state and continuous time diffusion models. The main idea behind our approach is to first represent the discrete data as binary bits, and then train a continuous diffusion model to model these bits as real numbers which we call analog bits. To generate samples, the model first generates the analog bits, which are then thresholded to obtain the bits that represent the discrete variables. We further propose two simple techniques, namely Self-Conditioning and Asymmetric Time Intervals, which lead to a significant improvement in sample quality. Despite its simplicity, the proposed approach can achieve strong performance in both discrete image generation and image captioning tasks. For discrete image generation, we significantly improve previous state-of-the-art on both CIFAR-10 (which has 3K discrete 8-bit tokens) and ImageNet-64x64 (which has 12K discrete 8-bit tokens), outperforming the best autoregressive model in both sample quality (measured by FID) and efficiency. For image captioning on MS-COCO dataset, our approach achieves competitive results compared to autoregressive models.

This work introduces a novel class of channel estimators tailored for coarse quantization systems. The proposed estimators are founded on conditionally Gaussian latent generative models, specifically Gaussian mixture models (GMMs), mixture of factor analyzers (MFAs), and variational autoencoders (VAEs). These models effectively learn the unknown channel distribution inherent in radio propagation scenarios, providing valuable prior information. Conditioning on the latent variable of these generative models yields a locally Gaussian channel distribution, thus enabling the application of the well-known Bussgang decomposition. By exploiting the resulting conditional Bussgang decomposition, we derive parameterized linear minimum mean square error (MMSE) estimators for the considered generative latent variable models. In this context, we explore leveraging model-based structural features to reduce memory and complexity overhead associated with the proposed estimators. Furthermore, we devise necessary training adaptations, enabling direct learning of the generative models from quantized pilot observations without requiring ground-truth channel samples during the training phase. Through extensive simulations, we demonstrate the superiority of our introduced estimators over existing state-of-the-art methods for coarsely quantized systems, as evidenced by significant improvements in mean square error (MSE) and achievable rate metrics.

We study the dynamics of token launched on Pump.fun, a Solana-based launchpad platform, to identify the determinants of the token success. Pump.fun employs a bonding curve mechanism to bootstrap initial liquidity possibly leading to graduation to the on-chain market, which can be seen as a token success. We build predictive models of the probability of graduation conditional on the current amount of Solana locked in the bonding curve and a set of explanatory variables that capture structural and behavioral aspects of the launch process. Conditioning the graduation probability on these variables significantly improves its predictive power, providing insights into early-stage market behavior, speculative and manipulative dynamics, and the informational efficiency of bonding-curve-based token launches.

We investigate the challenge of parametrizing policies for reinforcement learning (RL) in high-dimensional continuous action spaces. Our objective is to develop a multimodal policy that overcomes limitations inherent in the commonly-used Gaussian parameterization. To achieve this, we propose a principled framework that models the continuous RL policy as a generative model of optimal trajectories. By conditioning the policy on a latent variable, we derive a novel variational bound as the optimization objective, which promotes exploration of the environment. We then present a practical model-based RL method, called Reparameterized Policy Gradient (RPG), which leverages the multimodal policy parameterization and learned world model to achieve strong exploration capabilities and high data efficiency. Empirical results demonstrate that our method can help agents evade local optima in tasks with dense rewards and solve challenging sparse-reward environments by incorporating an object-centric intrinsic reward. Our method consistently outperforms previous approaches across a range of tasks. Code and supplementary materials are available on the project page https://haosulab.github.io/RPG/

Future- or return-conditioned supervised learning is an emerging paradigm for offline reinforcement learning (RL), where the future outcome (i.e., return) associated with an observed action sequence is used as input to a policy trained to imitate those same actions. While return-conditioning is at the heart of popular algorithms such as decision transformer (DT), these methods tend to perform poorly in highly stochastic environments, where an occasional high return can arise from randomness in the environment rather than the actions themselves. Such situations can lead to a learned policy that is inconsistent with its conditioning inputs; i.e., using the policy to act in the environment, when conditioning on a specific desired return, leads to a distribution of real returns that is wildly different than desired. In this work, we propose the dichotomy of control (DoC), a future-conditioned supervised learning framework that separates mechanisms within a policy's control (actions) from those beyond a policy's control (environment stochasticity). We achieve this separation by conditioning the policy on a latent variable representation of the future, and designing a mutual information constraint that removes any information from the latent variable associated with randomness in the environment. Theoretically, we show that DoC yields policies that are consistent with their conditioning inputs, ensuring that conditioning a learned policy on a desired high-return future outcome will correctly induce high-return behavior. Empirically, we show that DoC is able to achieve significantly better performance than DT on environments that have highly stochastic rewards and transition

Generating realistic 3D human motions in real-time within interactive applications is key for animation, simulation, and humanoid robotics. While recent offline motion generation approaches offer precise control via text and kinematic constraints, they lack the inference speed required for interactive settings. Conversely, existing online methods enable real-time synthesis but often sacrifice controllability or struggle with complex text semantics and long-horizon goals due to limited context windows. In this work, we introduce ARDY, a streaming generation framework that bridges this gap by enabling high-fidelity motion generation controllable via online text prompts and flexible kinematic constraints. ARDY employs a hybrid representation that combines explicit root features with a latent body embedding, balancing precise trajectory control with efficient generative learning. We propose a two-stage autoregressive transformer denoiser that features variable history context and supports conditioning on flexible, long-horizon kinematic constraints. By training on a large-scale motion capture dataset and being directly conditioned on text labels and kinematic constraints sampled from ground truth poses, ARDY natively learns controllable generation that supports online prompting and flexible long-horizon goals. Extensive evaluations on the HumanML3D benchmark and the large-scale, high-fidelity Bones Rigplay dataset demonstrate ARDY's high motion quality and constraint adherence, validating the efficacy of our key architectural decisions. Finally, we demonstrate the method's practical versatility through an interactive demo featuring dynamic text control, diverse keyframe pose constraints, path following, and interactive locomotion control via mouse and keyboard. Supplementary video results, code, and model releases can be found at https://research.nvidia.com/labs/sil/projects/ardy/.

Autoregressive video diffusion models provide a natural formulation for streaming and variable-length video generation by conditioning newly generated frames on previously generated content. However, extending these models to minute-level generation remains challenging: the limited KV-cache budget prevents the model from retaining the full history, while repeatedly conditioning on self-generated frames induces a context distribution shift that accumulates over time, leading to visual artifacts, quality degradation, and temporal drift. In this paper, we propose TetherCache, a training-free and plug-and-play cache management strategy for drift-resistant long video generation. TetherCache organizes the cache into sink, memory, and recent regions, and introduces two complementary mechanisms. First, GRAB (Gated Recall with Attention-Diversity Balancing) selects long-range memory frames using a gated score that combines attention-based relevance with temporal diversity, preserving informative yet diverse historical context under a fixed cache budget. Second, TAME (Trusted Alignment via Memory Editing) lightly edits newly recalled memory tokens by aligning their statistics to a trusted context distribution, reducing the pollution caused by drifted historical features. Built on Self-Forcing, TetherCache consistently improves long-video generation quality on VBench-Long across 30s, 60s, and 240s settings. In particular, for 240s generation, it substantially improves overall and semantic scores while reducing quality drift from 7.84 to 1.33, demonstrating its effectiveness for stable long-horizon autoregressive video diffusion.

Robot manipulation alternates between low-risk transit phases that call for fast execution and high-risk contact stages that demand slow, precise motion. Yet existing Vision-Language-Action models (VLAs) only inherit a single fixed speed from training demonstrations. Prior efforts to accelerate VLAs through model compression, KV-cache reuse, or reinforcement learning only shift the policy from one fixed speed to another, and leave deceleration almost unexplored. We observe that the magnitude of each predicted action already governs how fast the robot moves, opening a direct route to controllable execution speed. We turn this observation into TempoVLA, a single VLA whose execution speed is controlled by an explicit condition. TempoVLA combines two coupled components. (1) A data-side Variable-Speed Trajectory Augmentation (VSTA) that re-times demonstration to any target speed by merging or splitting actions while preserving its motion semantics. (2) A model-side conditioning mechanism that feeds the speed to the policy. Statistics show that VSTA reaches the requested speed with negligible motion error. Experiments in simulation and on real-world tasks demonstrate that TempoVLA achieves flexible speed control in both directions, while VSTA additionally boosts the default 1times performance via better data utilization. Furthermore, by cooperating with a large multimodal model, TempoVLA realizes dynamic speed control, accelerating through low-risk phases and decelerating for high-risk ones.

The landscape of AI video generation is undergoing a pivotal shift: moving beyond general generation - which relies on exhaustive prompt-engineering and "cherry-picking" - towards fine-grained, controllable generation and high-fidelity post-processing. In professional AI-assisted filmmaking, it is crucial to perform precise, targeted modifications. A cornerstone of this transition is video instance insertion, which requires inserting a specific instance into existing footage while maintaining scene integrity. Unlike traditional video editing, this task demands several requirements: precise spatial-temporal placement, physically consistent scene interaction, and the faithful preservation of original dynamics - all achieved under minimal user effort. In this paper, we propose PISCO, a video diffusion model for precise video instance insertion with arbitrary sparse keyframe control. PISCO allows users to specify a single keyframe, start-and-end keyframes, or sparse keyframes at arbitrary timestamps, and automatically propagates object appearance, motion, and interaction. To address the severe distribution shift induced by sparse conditioning in pretrained video diffusion models, we introduce Variable-Information Guidance for robust conditioning and Distribution-Preserving Temporal Masking to stabilize temporal generation, together with geometry-aware conditioning for realistic scene adaptation. We further construct PISCO-Bench, a benchmark with verified instance annotations and paired clean background videos, and evaluate performance using both reference-based and reference-free perceptual metrics. Experiments demonstrate that PISCO consistently outperforms strong inpainting and video editing baselines under sparse control, and exhibits clear, monotonic performance improvements as additional control signals are provided. Project page: xiangbogaobarry.github.io/PISCO.

Earth Observation (EO) forecasting aims to predict future Earth surface dynamics from satellite observations under changing meteorological conditions. In this paper, we view this task as a partially observed, weather-driven world modeling problem, in which weather acts as a conditioning signal, while forecasting remains uncertain due to sparse observations and unobserved land-surface states. However, existing methods do not fully capture this setting: deterministic models collapse uncertainty into a single future prediction, while diffusion-based methods typically treat weather variables as undifferentiated conditioning signals, and existing benchmarks focus mainly on reconstruction accuracy rather than whether forecasts respond correctly to changed weather forcing.We introduce EO-WM, a video diffusion transformer for multispectral EO forecasting. EO-WM incorporates a physically informed conditioning framework that represents meteorological forcing through a climatological baseline, weather anomalies, and cumulative physical stress signals. Specifically, it separates baseline and anomaly through distinct conditioning pathways, and accumulates anomalous forcing over time to capture sustained heat and drought stress. To evaluate weather-response behavior beyond standard metrics, we introduce two diagnostic benchmarks: an Extreme Summer Benchmark for severity-aware prediction of vegetation degradation under extreme weather, and a Seasonal Matched-Pair Benchmark for testing response fidelity under changed weather forcing. Experiments show that EO-WM reduces the error in predicted Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) decline amplitude by a relative 5.63% and improves directional hit rate by a relative 7.80%, while remaining competitive on standard pixel-level metrics. The benchmarks and model will be made open-source at https://github.com/Luo-Z13/EO-WM.

Music generation models can produce high-fidelity coherent accompaniment given complete audio input, but are limited to editing and loop-based workflows. We study real-time audio-to-audio accompaniment: as a model hears an input audio stream (e.g., a singer singing), it has to also simultaneously generate in real-time a coherent accompanying stream (e.g., a guitar accompaniment). In this work, we propose a model design considering inevitable system delays in practical deployment with two design variables: future visibility t_f, the offset between the output playback time and the latest input time used for conditioning, and output chunk duration k, the number of frames emitted per call. We train Transformer decoders across a grid of (t_f,k) and show two consistent trade-offs: increasing effective t_f improves coherence by reducing the recency gap, but requires faster inference to stay within the latency budget; increasing k improves throughput but results in degraded accompaniment due to a reduced update rate. Finally, we observe that naive maximum-likelihood streaming training is insufficient for coherent accompaniment where future context is not available, motivating advanced anticipatory and agentic objectives for live jamming.

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are considered the gold standard for estimating the average treatment effect (ATE) of interventions. One use of RCTs is to study the causes of global poverty -- a subject explicitly cited in the 2019 Nobel Memorial Prize awarded to Duflo, Banerjee, and Kremer "for their experimental approach to alleviating global poverty." Because the ATE is a population summary, anti-poverty experiments often seek to unpack the effect variation around the ATE by conditioning (CATE) on tabular variables such as age and ethnicity that were measured during the RCT data collection. Although such variables are key to unpacking CATE, using only such variables may fail to capture historical, geographical, or neighborhood-specific contributors to effect variation, as tabular RCT data are often only observed near the time of the experiment. In global poverty research, when the location of the experiment units is approximately known, satellite imagery can provide a window into such factors important for understanding heterogeneity. However, there is no method that specifically enables applied researchers to analyze CATE from images. In this paper, using a deep probabilistic modeling framework, we develop such a method that estimates latent clusters of images by identifying images with similar treatment effects distributions. Our interpretable image CATE model also includes a sensitivity factor that quantifies the importance of image segments contributing to the effect cluster prediction. We compare the proposed methods against alternatives in simulation; also, we show how the model works in an actual RCT, estimating the effects of an anti-poverty intervention in northern Uganda and obtaining a posterior predictive distribution over effects for the rest of the country where no experimental data was collected. We make all models available in open-source software.

This paper proposes a method for the automatic creation of variables (in the case of regression) that complement the information contained in the initial input vector. The method works as a pre-processing step in which the continuous values of the variable to be regressed are discretized into a set of intervals which are then used to define value thresholds. Then classifiers are trained to predict whether the value to be regressed is less than or equal to each of these thresholds. The different outputs of the classifiers are then concatenated in the form of an additional vector of variables that enriches the initial vector of the regression problem. The implemented system can thus be considered as a generic pre-processing tool. We tested the proposed enrichment method with 5 types of regressors and evaluated it in 33 regression datasets. Our experimental results confirm the interest of the approach.

We propose an extension of the decoder Transformer that conditions its generative process on random latent variables which are learned without supervision thanks to a variational procedure. Experimental evaluations show that allowing such a conditioning translates into substantial improvements on downstream tasks.

The presence of distribution shifts poses a significant challenge for deploying modern machine learning models in real-world applications. This work focuses on the target shift problem in a regression setting (Zhang et al., 2013; Nguyen et al., 2016). More specifically, the target variable y (also known as the response variable), which is continuous, has different marginal distributions in the training source and testing domain, while the conditional distribution of features x given y remains the same. While most literature focuses on classification tasks with finite target space, the regression problem has an infinite dimensional target space, which makes many of the existing methods inapplicable. In this work, we show that the continuous target shift problem can be addressed by estimating the importance weight function from an ill-posed integral equation. We propose a nonparametric regularized approach named ReTaSA to solve the ill-posed integral equation and provide theoretical justification for the estimated importance weight function. The effectiveness of the proposed method has been demonstrated with extensive numerical studies on synthetic and real-world datasets.

A widely used technique for improving policies is success conditioning, in which one collects trajectories, identifies those that achieve a desired outcome, and updates the policy to imitate the actions taken along successful trajectories. This principle appears under many names -- rejection sampling with SFT, goal-conditioned RL, Decision Transformers -- yet what optimization problem it solves, if any, has remained unclear. We prove that success conditioning exactly solves a trust-region optimization problem, maximizing policy improvement subject to a χ^2 divergence constraint whose radius is determined automatically by the data. This yields an identity: relative policy improvement, the magnitude of policy change, and a quantity we call action-influence -- measuring how random variation in action choices affects success rates -- are exactly equal at every state. Success conditioning thus emerges as a conservative improvement operator. Exact success conditioning cannot degrade performance or induce dangerous distribution shift, but when it fails, it does so observably, by hardly changing the policy at all. We apply our theory to the common practice of return thresholding, showing this can amplify improvement, but at the cost of potential misalignment with the true objective.

In symbolic regression, the goal is to find an analytical expression that accurately fits experimental data with the minimal use of mathematical symbols such as operators, variables, and constants. However, the combinatorial space of possible expressions can make it challenging for traditional evolutionary algorithms to find the correct expression in a reasonable amount of time. To address this issue, Neural Symbolic Regression (NSR) algorithms have been developed that can quickly identify patterns in the data and generate analytical expressions. However, these methods, in their current form, lack the capability to incorporate user-defined prior knowledge, which is often required in natural sciences and engineering fields. To overcome this limitation, we propose a novel neural symbolic regression method, named Neural Symbolic Regression with Hypothesis (NSRwH) that enables the explicit incorporation of assumptions about the expected structure of the ground-truth expression into the prediction process. Our experiments demonstrate that the proposed conditioned deep learning model outperforms its unconditioned counterparts in terms of accuracy while also providing control over the predicted expression structure.

The technique of data augmentation (DA) is often used in machine learning for regularization purposes to better generalize under i.i.d. settings. In this work, we present a unifying framework with topics in causal inference to make a case for the use of DA beyond just the i.i.d. setting, but for generalization across interventions as well. Specifically, we argue that when the outcome generating mechanism is invariant to our choice of DA, then such augmentations can effectively be thought of as interventions on the treatment generating mechanism itself. This can potentially help to reduce bias in causal effect estimation arising from hidden confounders. In the presence of such unobserved confounding we typically make use of instrumental variables (IVs) -- sources of treatment randomization that are conditionally independent of the outcome. However, IVs may not be as readily available as DA for many applications, which is the main motivation behind this work. By appropriately regularizing IV based estimators, we introduce the concept of IV-like (IVL) regression for mitigating confounding bias and improving predictive performance across interventions even when certain IV properties are relaxed. Finally, we cast parameterized DA as an IVL regression problem and show that when used in composition can simulate a worst-case application of such DA, further improving performance on causal estimation and generalization tasks beyond what simple DA may offer. This is shown both theoretically for the population case and via simulation experiments for the finite sample case using a simple linear example. We also present real data experiments to support our case.

This article studies the change in the prediction accuracy of a response variable when the number of predictors increases, and all variables follow a multivariate normal distribution. Assuming that the correlations between variables are independently drawn, I show that adding variables leads to globally increasing returns to scale when the mean of the correlation distribution is zero. The speed of learning depends positively on the variance of the correlation distribution. I use simulations to study the more complex case of correlation distributions with a non-zero mean and find a pattern of decreasing returns followed by increasing returns to scale - as long as the variance of correlations is not degenerate, in which case globally decreasing returns emerge. I train a collaborative filtering algorithm using the MovieLens 1M dataset to analyze returns from adding variables in a more realistic setting and find globally increasing returns to scale across 2,000 variables. The results suggest significant scale advantages from additional variables in prediction tasks.

Covariates provide valuable information on external factors that influence time series and are critical in many real-world time series forecasting tasks. For example, in retail, covariates may indicate promotions or peak dates such as holiday seasons that heavily influence demand forecasts. Recent advances in pretraining large language model architectures for time series forecasting have led to highly accurate forecasters. However, the majority of these models do not readily use covariates as they are often specific to a certain task or domain. This paper introduces a new method to incorporate covariates into pretrained time series forecasting models. Our proposed approach incorporates covariate information into pretrained forecasting models through modular blocks that inject past and future covariate information, without necessarily modifying the pretrained model in consideration. In order to evaluate our approach, we introduce a benchmark composed of 32 different synthetic datasets with varying dynamics to evaluate the effectivity of forecasting models with covariates. Extensive evaluations on both synthetic and real datasets show that our approach effectively incorporates covariate information into pretrained models, outperforming existing baselines.

Robust generalization under distribution shift remains a key challenge for conditional generative modeling: conditional flow-based methods often fit the training conditions well but fail to extrapolate to unseen ones. We introduce SP-FM, a shortest-path flow-matching framework that improves out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization by conditioning both the base distribution and the flow field on the condition. Specifically, SP-FM learns a condition-dependent base distribution parameterized as a flexible, learnable mixture, together with a condition-dependent vector field trained via shortest-path flow matching. Conditioning the base allows the model to adapt its starting distribution across conditions, enabling smooth interpolation and more reliable extrapolation beyond the observed training range. We provide theoretical insights into the resulting conditional transport and show how mixture-conditioned bases enhance robustness under shift. Empirically, SP-FM is effective across heterogeneous domains, including predicting responses to unseen perturbations in single-cell transcriptomics and modeling treatment effects in high-content microscopy--based drug screening. Overall, SP-FM provides a simple yet effective plug-in strategy for improving conditional generative modeling and OOD generalization across diverse domains.

Conditional visual generation has witnessed remarkable progress with the advent of diffusion models (DMs), especially in tasks like control-to-image generation. However, challenges such as expensive computational cost, high inference latency, and difficulties of integration with large language models (LLMs) have necessitated exploring alternatives to DMs. This paper introduces ControlVAR, a novel framework that explores pixel-level controls in visual autoregressive (VAR) modeling for flexible and efficient conditional generation. In contrast to traditional conditional models that learn the conditional distribution, ControlVAR jointly models the distribution of image and pixel-level conditions during training and imposes conditional controls during testing. To enhance the joint modeling, we adopt the next-scale AR prediction paradigm and unify control and image representations. A teacher-forcing guidance strategy is proposed to further facilitate controllable generation with joint modeling. Extensive experiments demonstrate the superior efficacy and flexibility of ControlVAR across various conditional generation tasks against popular conditional DMs, \eg, ControlNet and T2I-Adaptor. Code: https://github.com/lxa9867/ControlVAR.

Safety performance evaluation is critical for developing and deploying connected and automated vehicles (CAVs). One prevailing way is to design testing scenarios using prior knowledge of CAVs, test CAVs in these scenarios, and then evaluate their safety performances. However, significant differences between CAVs and prior knowledge could severely reduce the evaluation efficiency. Towards addressing this issue, most existing studies focus on the adaptive design of testing scenarios during the CAV testing process, but so far they cannot be applied to high-dimensional scenarios. In this paper, we focus on the adaptive safety performance evaluation by leveraging the testing results, after the CAV testing process. It can significantly improve the evaluation efficiency and be applied to high-dimensional scenarios. Specifically, instead of directly evaluating the unknown quantity (e.g., crash rates) of CAV safety performances, we evaluate the differences between the unknown quantity and known quantity (i.e., control variates). By leveraging the testing results, the control variates could be well designed and optimized such that the differences are close to zero, so the evaluation variance could be dramatically reduced for different CAVs. To handle the high-dimensional scenarios, we propose the sparse control variates method, where the control variates are designed only for the sparse and critical variables of scenarios. According to the number of critical variables in each scenario, the control variates are stratified into strata and optimized within each stratum using multiple linear regression techniques. We justify the proposed method's effectiveness by rigorous theoretical analysis and empirical study of high-dimensional overtaking scenarios.

Regression, the task of predicting a continuous scalar target y based on some features x is one of the most fundamental tasks in machine learning and statistics. It has been observed and theoretically analyzed that the classical approach, meansquared error minimization, can lead to suboptimal results when training neural networks. In this work, we propose a new method to improve the training of these models on regression tasks, with continuous scalar targets. Our method is based on casting this task in a different fashion, using a target encoder, and a prediction decoder, inspired by approaches in classification and clustering. We showcase the performance of our method on a wide range of real-world datasets.

LLMs are often trained with RL from human or AI feedback, yet such methods typically compress nuanced feedback into scalar rewards, discarding much of their richness and inducing scale imbalance. We propose treating verbal feedback as a conditioning signal. Inspired by language priors in text-to-image generation, which enable novel outputs from unseen prompts, we introduce the feedback-conditional policy (FCP). FCP learns directly from response-feedback pairs, approximating the feedback-conditional posterior through maximum likelihood training on offline data. We further develop an online bootstrapping stage where the policy generates under positive conditions and receives fresh feedback to refine itself. This reframes feedback-driven learning as conditional generation rather than reward optimization, offering a more expressive way for LLMs to directly learn from verbal feedback. Our code is available at https://github.com/sail-sg/feedback-conditional-policy.

We propose a novel hierarchical Bayesian model for learning with a large (possibly infinite) number of tasks/episodes, which suits well the few-shot meta learning problem. We consider episode-wise random variables to model episode-specific target generative processes, where these local random variables are governed by a higher-level global random variate. The global variable helps memorize the important information from historic episodes while controlling how much the model needs to be adapted to new episodes in a principled Bayesian manner. Within our model framework, the prediction on a novel episode/task can be seen as a Bayesian inference problem. However, a main obstacle in learning with a large/infinite number of local random variables in online nature, is that one is not allowed to store the posterior distribution of the current local random variable for frequent future updates, typical in conventional variational inference. We need to be able to treat each local variable as a one-time iterate in the optimization. We propose a Normal-Inverse-Wishart model, for which we show that this one-time iterate optimization becomes feasible due to the approximate closed-form solutions for the local posterior distributions. The resulting algorithm is more attractive than the MAML in that it is not required to maintain computational graphs for the whole gradient optimization steps per episode. Our approach is also different from existing Bayesian meta learning methods in that unlike dealing with a single random variable for the whole episodes, our approach has a hierarchical structure that allows one-time episodic optimization, desirable for principled Bayesian learning with many/infinite tasks. The code is available at https://github.com/minyoungkim21/niwmeta.

We introduce a general, flexible, parametric survival modelling framework which encompasses key shapes of hazard function (constant, increasing, decreasing, up-then-down, down-then-up), various common survival distributions (log-logistic, Burr type XII, Weibull, Gompertz), and includes defective distributions (i.e., cure models). This generality is achieved using four basic distributional parameters: two scale-type parameters and two shape parameters. Generalising to covariate dependence, the scale-type regression components correspond to accelerated failure time (AFT) and proportional hazards (PH) models. Therefore, this general formulation unifies the most popular survival models which allows us to consider the practical value of possible modelling choices for survival data. Furthermore, in line with our proposed flexible baseline distribution, we advocate the use of multi-parameter regression in which more than one distributional parameter depends on covariates - rather than the usual convention of having a single covariate-dependent (scale) parameter. While many choices are available, we suggest introducing covariates through just one or other of the two scale parameters, which covers AFT and PH models, in combination with a `power' shape parameter, which allows for more complex non-AFT/non-PH effects, while the other shape parameter remains covariate-independent, and handles automatic selection of the baseline distribution. We explore inferential issues in simulations, both with and without a covariate, with particular focus on evidence concerning the need, or otherwise, to include both AFT and PH parameters. We illustrate the efficacy of our modelling framework by investigating differences between treatment groups using data from a lung cancer study and a melanoma study. Censoring is accommodated throughout.

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is a perspective approach to detecting Large Language Model (LLM) hallucinations and low quality output. In this work, we address one of the challenges of UQ in generation tasks that arises from the conditional dependency between the generation steps of an LLM. We propose to learn this dependency from data. We train a regression model, which target variable is the gap between the conditional and the unconditional generation confidence. During LLM inference, we use this learned conditional dependency model to modulate the uncertainty of the current generation step based on the uncertainty of the previous step. Our experimental evaluation on nine datasets and three LLMs shows that the proposed method is highly effective for uncertainty quantification, achieving substantial improvements over rivaling approaches.

Causal inference, estimating causal effects from observational data, is a fundamental tool in many disciplines. Of particular importance across a variety of domains is the continuous treatment setting, where the variable of intervention has a continuous range. This setting is far less explored and represents a substantial shift from the binary treatment setting, with models needing to represent effects across a continuum of treatment values. In this paper, we present the first causal foundation model for the continuous treatment setting. Our model meta-learns the ability to predict causal effects across a wide variety of unseen tasks without additional training or fine-tuning. First, we design a novel prior over data-generating processes with continuous treatment variables in order to generate a rich causal training corpus. We then train a transformer to reconstruct individual treatment-response curves given only observational data, leveraging in-context learning to amortize expensive Bayesian posterior inference. Our model achieves state-of-the-art performance on individual treatment-response curve reconstruction tasks compared to causal models which are trained specifically for those tasks.

We show that there is a general, informative and reliable procedure for discovering causal relations when, for all the investigator knows, both latent variables and selection bias may be at work. Given information about conditional independence and dependence relations between measured variables, even when latent variables and selection bias may be present, there are sufficient conditions for reliably concluding that there is a causal path from one variable to another, and sufficient conditions for reliably concluding when no such causal path exists.

Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) has substantially improved the reasoning abilities of large language models (LLMs), yet training often stalls as problems become saturated. We identify the core challenge as the poor accessibility of informative failures: learning signals exist but are rarely encountered during standard rollouts. To address this, we propose failure-prefix conditioning, a simple and effective method for learning from saturated problems. Rather than starting from the original question, our approach reallocates exploration by conditioning training on prefixes derived from rare incorrect reasoning trajectories, thereby exposing the model to failure-prone states. We observe that failure-prefix conditioning yields performance gains matching those of training on medium-difficulty problems, while preserving token efficiency. Furthermore, we analyze the model's robustness, finding that our method reduces performance degradation under misleading failure prefixes, albeit with a mild trade-off in adherence to correct early reasoning. Finally, we demonstrate that an iterative approach, which refreshes failure prefixes during training, unlocks additional gains after performance plateaus. Overall, our results suggest that failure-prefix conditioning offers an effective pathway to extend RLVR training on saturated problems.

An essential and challenging problem in causal inference is causal effect estimation from observational data. The problem becomes more difficult with the presence of unobserved confounding variables. The front-door adjustment is a practical approach for dealing with unobserved confounding variables. However, the restriction for the standard front-door adjustment is difficult to satisfy in practice. In this paper, we relax some of the restrictions by proposing the concept of conditional front-door (CFD) adjustment and develop the theorem that guarantees the causal effect identifiability of CFD adjustment. Furthermore, as it is often impossible for a CFD variable to be given in practice, it is desirable to learn it from data. By leveraging the ability of deep generative models, we propose CFDiVAE to learn the representation of the CFD adjustment variable directly from data with the identifiable Variational AutoEncoder and formally prove the model identifiability. Extensive experiments on synthetic datasets validate the effectiveness of CFDiVAE and its superiority over existing methods. The experiments also show that the performance of CFDiVAE is less sensitive to the causal strength of unobserved confounding variables. We further apply CFDiVAE to a real-world dataset to demonstrate its potential application.

"If I provide you a face image of mine (without telling you the actual age when I took the picture) and a large amount of face images that I crawled (containing labeled faces of different ages but not necessarily paired), can you show me what I would look like when I am 80 or what I was like when I was 5?" The answer is probably a "No." Most existing face aging works attempt to learn the transformation between age groups and thus would require the paired samples as well as the labeled query image. In this paper, we look at the problem from a generative modeling perspective such that no paired samples is required. In addition, given an unlabeled image, the generative model can directly produce the image with desired age attribute. We propose a conditional adversarial autoencoder (CAAE) that learns a face manifold, traversing on which smooth age progression and regression can be realized simultaneously. In CAAE, the face is first mapped to a latent vector through a convolutional encoder, and then the vector is projected to the face manifold conditional on age through a deconvolutional generator. The latent vector preserves personalized face features (i.e., personality) and the age condition controls progression vs. regression. Two adversarial networks are imposed on the encoder and generator, respectively, forcing to generate more photo-realistic faces. Experimental results demonstrate the appealing performance and flexibility of the proposed framework by comparing with the state-of-the-art and ground truth.

Self-distillation has emerged as an effective post-training paradigm for LLMs, often improving performance while shortening reasoning traces. However, in mathematical reasoning, we find that it can reduce response length while degrading performance. We trace this degradation to the suppression of epistemic verbalization - the model's expression of uncertainty during reasoning. Through controlled experiments varying conditioning context richness and task coverage, we show that conditioning the teacher on rich information suppresses uncertainty expression, enabling rapid in-domain optimization with limited task coverage but harming OOD performance, where unseen problems benefit from expressing uncertainty and adjusting accordingly. Across Qwen3-8B, DeepSeek-Distill-Qwen-7B, and Olmo3-7B-Instruct, we observe performance drops of up to 40%. Our findings highlight that exposing appropriate levels of uncertainty is crucial for robust reasoning and underscore the importance of optimizing reasoning behavior beyond merely reinforcing correct answer traces.

Machine learning models are often trained to predict the outcome resulting from a human decision. For example, if a doctor decides to test a patient for disease, will the patient test positive? A challenge is that historical decision-making determines whether the outcome is observed: we only observe test outcomes for patients doctors historically tested. Untested patients, for whom outcomes are unobserved, may differ from tested patients along observed and unobserved dimensions. We propose a Bayesian model class which captures this setting. The purpose of the model is to accurately estimate risk for both tested and untested patients. Estimating this model is challenging due to the wide range of possibilities for untested patients. To address this, we propose two domain constraints which are plausible in health settings: a prevalence constraint, where the overall disease prevalence is known, and an expertise constraint, where the human decision-maker deviates from purely risk-based decision-making only along a constrained feature set. We show theoretically and on synthetic data that domain constraints improve parameter inference. We apply our model to a case study of cancer risk prediction, showing that the model's inferred risk predicts cancer diagnoses, its inferred testing policy captures known public health policies, and it can identify suboptimalities in test allocation. Though our case study is in healthcare, our analysis reveals a general class of domain constraints which can improve model estimation in many settings.

On-policy self-distillation has become a strong recipe for LLM reasoning, where a privileged teacher supervises the student's own rollouts while conditioning on the reference solution. A design choice shared by nearly all such methods, however, has gone unquestioned: the teacher always sees the full reference reasoning. We argue that this default itself is part of the problem and identify a teacher-side exposure mismatch: when the teacher conditions on reasoning far beyond the student's current competence, the resulting token targets become too strong to absorb. A controlled fixed-exposure sweep makes this concrete on two fronts: 1) full exposure is not reliably the best choice, and 2) student-teacher mismatch grows monotonically as the teacher sees more privileged reasoning. This motivates treating teacher exposure not as a fixed hyperparameter but as a learnable training-time control variable. We therefore propose Adaptive Teacher Exposure for Self-Distillation (ATESD). ATESD models the reveal ratio with a lightweight Beta-policy controller conditioned on compact training-state statistics, and uses one sampled exposure for a short hold window of student updates. To make this exposure controller learnable, we optimize it with a discounted learning-progress reward that scores each held decision by its effect on the student's future improvement rather than its immediate loss change, addressing the delayed credit assignment induced by on-policy distillation. Experiments on AIME 24, AIME 25, and HMMT 25 across Qwen3-{1.7B, 4B, 8B} show that ATESD consistently outperforms competitive self-distillation and RL baselines, improving over OPSD by +0.95, +2.05, and +2.33 Average@12 points respectively, and establishing adaptive teacher exposure as an effective new axis for reasoning self-distillation.

Many political science theories relate to latent variables, but such quantities cannot be observed directly and must instead be estimated from data with inherent uncertainty. In regression models, when a variable is measured with error, its slope coefficient is known to be biased toward zero. We show how measurement error interacts with unique aspects of latent variable estimation, identification restrictions in particular, and demonstrate how common error adjustment strategies can worsen bias. We introduce a method for adjusting coefficients on latent predictors, which reduces bias and typically increases the magnitude of estimated coefficients, often dramatically. We illustrate these dynamics using several different estimation strategies for the latent predictors. Corrected estimates using our proposed method show stronger relationships -- sometimes up to 50% larger -- than those from naive regression. Our findings highlight the importance of considering measurement error in latent predictors and the inadequacy of many commonly used approaches for dealing with this issue.

We present a new robotic foundation model, called π_{0.7}, that can enable strong out-of-the-box performance in a wide range of scenarios. π_{0.7} can follow diverse language instructions in unseen environments, including multi-stage tasks with various kitchen appliances, provide zero-shot cross-embodiment generalization, for example enabling a robot to fold laundry without seeing the task before, and perform challenging tasks such as operating an espresso machine out of the box at a level of performance that matches much more specialized RL-finetuned models. The main idea behind π_{0.7} is to use diverse context conditioning during training. This conditioning information, contained in the prompt, makes it possible to steer the model precisely to perform many tasks with different strategies. It is conditioned not just on a language command that describes what it should do, but on additional multimodal information that also describes the manner or strategy in which it should do it, including metadata about task performance and subgoal images. This enables π_{0.7} to use very diverse data, including demonstrations, potentially suboptimal (autonomous) data including failures, and data from non-robot sources. Our experiments evaluate π_{0.7} across numerous tasks with multiple robot platforms, on tasks that require speed and dexterity, language following, and compositional task generalization.

This paper studies the prediction of a target z from a pair of random variables (x,y), where the ground-truth predictor is additive E[z mid x,y] = f_star(x) +g_{star}(y). We study the performance of empirical risk minimization (ERM) over functions f+g, f in F and g in G, fit on a given training distribution, but evaluated on a test distribution which exhibits covariate shift. We show that, when the class F is "simpler" than G (measured, e.g., in terms of its metric entropy), our predictor is more resilient to heterogenous covariate shifts in which the shift in x is much greater than that in y. These results rely on a novel H\"older style inequality for the Dudley integral which may be of independent interest. Moreover, we corroborate our theoretical findings with experiments demonstrating improved resilience to shifts in "simpler" features across numerous domains.

This paper considers the problem of variable selection allowing for parameter instability. It distinguishes between signal and pseudo-signal variables that are correlated with the target variable, and noise variables that are not, and investigate the asymptotic properties of the One Covariate at a Time Multiple Testing (OCMT) method proposed by Chudik et al. (2018) under parameter insatiability. It is established that OCMT continues to asymptotically select an approximating model that includes all the signals and none of the noise variables. Properties of post selection regressions are also investigated, and in-sample fit of the selected regression is shown to have the oracle property. The theoretical results support the use of unweighted observations at the selection stage of OCMT, whilst applying down-weighting of observations only at the forecasting stage. Monte Carlo and empirical applications show that OCMT without down-weighting at the selection stage yields smaller mean squared forecast errors compared to Lasso, Adaptive Lasso, and boosting.

We present GameNGen, the first game engine powered entirely by a neural model that enables real-time interaction with a complex environment over long trajectories at high quality. GameNGen can interactively simulate the classic game DOOM at over 20 frames per second on a single TPU. Next frame prediction achieves a PSNR of 29.4, comparable to lossy JPEG compression. Human raters are only slightly better than random chance at distinguishing short clips of the game from clips of the simulation. GameNGen is trained in two phases: (1) an RL-agent learns to play the game and the training sessions are recorded, and (2) a diffusion model is trained to produce the next frame, conditioned on the sequence of past frames and actions. Conditioning augmentations enable stable auto-regressive generation over long trajectories.

Powerful generative models, particularly in Natural Language Modelling, are commonly trained by maximizing a variational lower bound on the data log likelihood. These models often suffer from poor use of their latent variable, with ad-hoc annealing factors used to encourage retention of information in the latent variable. We discuss an alternative and general approach to latent variable modelling, based on an objective that combines the data log likelihood as well as the likelihood of a perfect reconstruction through an autoencoder. Tying these together ensures by design that the latent variable captures information about the observations, whilst retaining the ability to generate well. Interestingly, though this approach is a priori unrelated to VAEs, the lower bound attained is identical to the standard VAE bound but with the addition of a simple pre-factor; thus, providing a formal interpretation of the commonly used, ad-hoc pre-factors in training VAEs.

We seek to identify the most relevant benefits offered by Medicare Advantage Health Plans that drive membership and market share. As an example, we explore plans operating in a single county in New Jersey between 2018 and 2023. A dataset of benefits from publicly available data sources was created and the variance inflation factor was applied to identify the correlation between the extracted features, to avoid multicollinearity and overparameterization problems. We categorized the variable Market Share and used it as a multinomial response variable with three categories: less than 0.3\%, 0.3\% to 1.5\%, and over 1.5\%. Categories were chosen to achieve approximately uniform distribution of plans (47, 60, and 65 respectively). We built a multinomial Lasso model using 5-fold cross-validation to tune the penalty parameter. Lasso forced some features to be dropped from the model, which reduces the risk of overfitting and increases the interpretability of the results. For each category, important variables are different. Certain brands drive market share, as do PPO plans and prescription drug coverage. Benefits, particularly ancillary benefits that are not part of CMS's required benefits, appear to have little influence, while financial terms such as deductibles, copays, and out-of-pocket limits are associated with higher market share. Finally, we evaluated the predictive accuracy of the Lasso model with the test set. The accuracy is 0.76.

Adding procedural skills to an LLM agent is typically evaluated by average improvement in task success. However, this metric hides an important cost: skills can also make agents worse. We measure both sides by comparing agents with and without skills across nearly 6,000 runs spanning two office automation benchmarks and three model harness stacks. This allows us to distinguish two outcomes. A regression is a task solved without skills but failed after skills are added. A residual failure is a task that fails both with and without skills. We find that regressions are substantial enough that the best performing skills outperform others primarily by regressing less, not by gaining more. We identify three causes of regression: (i) skill description osmosis, a skill changes an agent's behavior simply by being present in context, even when it is never invoked; (ii) grounding displacement, a skill's prescribed procedure overrides how the agent interprets its inputs; and (iii) verification displacement, where the procedure suppresses checks the agent would otherwise perform on its outputs. Analysing persistent failures reveals the same underlying pattern. Existing skills overemphasize procedural guidance the stage least often responsible for failure while under supporting grounding and verification, the dominant sources of remaining errors. After correcting evaluation artifacts and studying traces, we find many regressions and persistent failures recoverable through better grounding and verification. Procedural skills should be evaluated by decomposing their net effect into gains and regressions, not by aggregate improvement alone. We identify three regression modes skills should avoid, and find that reliability depends more on grounding and verification than on procedural skill choice.

Testing and evaluation is a critical step in the development and deployment of connected and automated vehicles (CAVs). Due to the black-box property and various types of CAVs, how to test and evaluate CAVs adaptively remains a major challenge. Many approaches have been proposed to adaptively generate testing scenarios during the testing process. However, most existing approaches cannot be applied to complex scenarios, where the variables needed to define such scenarios are high dimensional. Towards filling this gap, the adaptive testing with sparse control variates method is proposed in this paper. Instead of adaptively generating testing scenarios, our approach evaluates CAVs' performances by adaptively utilizing the testing results. Specifically, each testing result is adjusted using multiple linear regression techniques based on control variates. As the regression coefficients can be adaptively optimized for the CAV under test, using the adjusted results can reduce the estimation variance, compared with using the testing results directly. To overcome the high dimensionality challenge, sparse control variates are utilized only for the critical variables of testing scenarios. To validate the proposed method, the high-dimensional overtaking scenarios are investigated, and the results demonstrate that our approach can further accelerate the evaluation process by about 30 times.

This paper presents a computationally feasible method to compute rigorous bounds on the interval-generalisation of regression analysis to account for epistemic uncertainty in the output variables. The new iterative method uses machine learning algorithms to fit an imprecise regression model to data that consist of intervals rather than point values. The method is based on a single-layer interval neural network which can be trained to produce an interval prediction. It seeks parameters for the optimal model that minimizes the mean squared error between the actual and predicted interval values of the dependent variable using a first-order gradient-based optimization and interval analysis computations to model the measurement imprecision of the data. An additional extension to a multi-layer neural network is also presented. We consider the explanatory variables to be precise point values, but the measured dependent values are characterized by interval bounds without any probabilistic information. The proposed iterative method estimates the lower and upper bounds of the expectation region, which is an envelope of all possible precise regression lines obtained by ordinary regression analysis based on any configuration of real-valued points from the respective y-intervals and their x-values.

Instrumental variable (IV) methods are used to estimate causal effects in settings with unobserved confounding, where we cannot directly experiment on the treatment variable. Instruments are variables which only affect the outcome indirectly via the treatment variable(s). Most IV applications focus on low-dimensional treatments and crucially require at least as many instruments as treatments. This assumption is restrictive: in the natural sciences we often seek to infer causal effects of high-dimensional treatments (e.g., the effect of gene expressions or microbiota on health and disease), but can only run few experiments with a limited number of instruments (e.g., drugs or antibiotics). In such underspecified problems, the full treatment effect is not identifiable in a single experiment even in the linear case. We show that one can still reliably recover the projection of the treatment effect onto the instrumented subspace and develop techniques to consistently combine such partial estimates from different sets of instruments. We then leverage our combined estimators in an algorithm that iteratively proposes the most informative instruments at each round of experimentation to maximize the overall information about the full causal effect.

We propose TR0N, a highly general framework to turn pre-trained unconditional generative models, such as GANs and VAEs, into conditional models. The conditioning can be highly arbitrary, and requires only a pre-trained auxiliary model. For example, we show how to turn unconditional models into class-conditional ones with the help of a classifier, and also into text-to-image models by leveraging CLIP. TR0N learns a lightweight stochastic mapping which "translates" between the space of conditions and the latent space of the generative model, in such a way that the generated latent corresponds to a data sample satisfying the desired condition. The translated latent samples are then further improved upon through Langevin dynamics, enabling us to obtain higher-quality data samples. TR0N requires no training data nor fine-tuning, yet can achieve a zero-shot FID of 10.9 on MS-COCO, outperforming competing alternatives not only on this metric, but also in sampling speed -- all while retaining a much higher level of generality. Our code is available at https://github.com/layer6ai-labs/tr0n.

Our motivation is to shed light the performance of the widely popular "R-Learner." Like many other methods for estimating conditional average treatment effects (CATEs), R-Learning can be expressed as a weighted pseudo-outcome regression (POR). Previous comparisons of POR techniques have paid careful attention to the choice of pseudo-outcome transformation. However, we argue that the dominant driver of performance is actually the choice of weights. Specifically, we argue that R-Learning implicitly performs an inverse-variance weighted form of POR. These weights stabilize the regression and allow for convenient simplifications of bias terms.

Calibrated uncertainty estimates in machine learning are crucial to many fields such as autonomous vehicles, medicine, and weather and climate forecasting. While there is extensive literature on uncertainty calibration for classification, the classification findings do not always translate to regression. As a result, modern models for predicting uncertainty in regression settings typically produce uncalibrated and overconfident estimates. To address these gaps, we present a calibration method for regression settings that does not assume a particular uncertainty distribution over the error: Calibrating Regression Uncertainty Distributions Empirically (CRUDE). CRUDE makes the weaker assumption that error distributions have a constant arbitrary shape across the output space, shifted by predicted mean and scaled by predicted standard deviation. We detail a theoretical connection between CRUDE and conformal inference. Across an extensive set of regression tasks, CRUDE demonstrates consistently sharper, better calibrated, and more accurate uncertainty estimates than state-of-the-art techniques.

In discriminative settings such as regression and classification there are two random variables at play, the inputs X and the targets Y. Here, we demonstrate that the Variational Information Bottleneck can be viewed as a compromise between fully empirical and fully Bayesian objectives, attempting to minimize the risks due to finite sampling of Y only. We argue that this approach provides some of the benefits of Bayes while requiring only some of the work.

Deep learning is often criticized by two serious issues which rarely exist in natural nervous systems: overfitting and catastrophic forgetting. It can even memorize randomly labelled data, which has little knowledge behind the instance-label pairs. When a deep network continually learns over time by accommodating new tasks, it usually quickly overwrites the knowledge learned from previous tasks. Referred to as the {\it neural variability}, it is well-known in neuroscience that human brain reactions exhibit substantial variability even in response to the same stimulus. This mechanism balances accuracy and plasticity/flexibility in the motor learning of natural nervous systems. Thus it motivates us to design a similar mechanism named {\it artificial neural variability} (ANV), which helps artificial neural networks learn some advantages from ``natural'' neural networks. We rigorously prove that ANV plays as an implicit regularizer of the mutual information between the training data and the learned model. This result theoretically guarantees ANV a strictly improved generalizability, robustness to label noise, and robustness to catastrophic forgetting. We then devise a {\it neural variable risk minimization} (NVRM) framework and {\it neural variable optimizers} to achieve ANV for conventional network architectures in practice. The empirical studies demonstrate that NVRM can effectively relieve overfitting, label noise memorization, and catastrophic forgetting at negligible costs. Code: \url{https://github.com/zeke-xie/artificial-neural-variability-for-deep-learning.

Within the field of causal inference, we consider the problem of estimating heterogeneous treatment effects from data. We propose and validate a novel approach for learning feature representations to aid the estimation of the conditional average treatment effect or CATE. Our method focuses on an intermediate layer in a neural network trained to predict the outcome from the features. In contrast to previous approaches that encourage the distribution of representations to be treatment-invariant, we leverage a genetic algorithm that optimizes over representations useful for predicting the outcome to select those less useful for predicting the treatment. This allows us to retain information within the features useful for predicting outcome even if that information may be related to treatment assignment. We validate our method on synthetic examples and illustrate its use on a real life dataset.

This paper addresses a regression problem in which output label values are the results of sensing the magnitude of a phenomenon. A low value of such labels can mean either that the actual magnitude of the phenomenon was low or that the sensor made an incomplete observation. This leads to a bias toward lower values in labels and the resultant learning because labels may have lower values due to incomplete observations, even if the actual magnitude of the phenomenon was high. Moreover, because an incomplete observation does not provide any tags indicating incompleteness, we cannot eliminate or impute them. To address this issue, we propose a learning algorithm that explicitly models incomplete observations corrupted with an asymmetric noise that always has a negative value. We show that our algorithm is unbiased as if it were learned from uncorrupted data that does not involve incomplete observations. We demonstrate the advantages of our algorithm through numerical experiments.

This paper explores the relationship between the condition number of a neural network's weight tensor and the extent of information encoded by the associated processing unit, viewed through the lens of information theory. It argues that a high condition number, though not sufficient for effective knowledge encoding, may indicate that the unit has learned to selectively amplify and compress information. This intuition is formalized for linear units with Gaussian inputs, linking the condition number and the transformation's log-volume scaling factor to the characteristics of the output entropy and the geometric properties of the learned transformation. The analysis demonstrates that for a fixed weight norm, a concentrated distribution of singular values (high condition number) corresponds to reduced overall information transfer, indicating a specialized and efficient encoding strategy. Furthermore, the linear stage entropy bound provides an upper limit on post-activation information for contractive, element-wise nonlinearities, supporting the condition number as a scale-invariant proxy for encoding capacity in practical neural networks. An empirical case study applies these principles to guide selective fine-tuning of Large Language Models for both a new task and a new input modality. The experiments show that the proposed method, named KappaTune, effectively mitigates catastrophic forgetting. Unlike many existing catastrophic forgetting mitigation methods that rely on access to pre-training statistics, which are often unavailable, this selective fine-tuning approach offers a way to bypass this common requirement.

We propose a novel machine learning approach for inferring causal variables of a target variable from observations. Our focus is on directly inferring a set of causal factors without requiring full causal graph reconstruction, which is computationally challenging in large-scale systems. The identified causal set consists of all potential regulators of the target variable under experimental settings, enabling efficient regulation when intervention costs and feasibility vary across variables. To achieve this, we train a neural network using supervised learning on simulated data to infer causality. By employing a local-inference strategy, our approach scales with linear complexity in the number of variables, efficiently scaling up to thousands of variables. Empirical results demonstrate superior performance in identifying causal relationships within large-scale gene regulatory networks, outperforming existing methods that emphasize full-graph discovery. We validate our model's generalization capability across out-of-distribution graph structures and generating mechanisms, including gene regulatory networks of E. coli and the human K562 cell line. Implementation codes are available at https://github.com/snu-mllab/Targeted-Cause-Discovery.

Over the broad landscape of experimental design, regression has been a powerful tool to accurately predict the outcome metrics of a system or model given a set of parameters, but has been traditionally restricted to methods which are only applicable to a specific task. In this paper, we propose OmniPred, a framework for training language models as universal end-to-end regressors over (x,y) evaluation data from diverse real world experiments. Using data sourced from Google Vizier, one of the largest blackbox optimization databases in the world, our extensive experiments demonstrate that through only textual representations of mathematical parameters and values, language models are capable of very precise numerical regression, and if given the opportunity to train over multiple tasks, can significantly outperform traditional regression models.

Decoding-based regression, which reformulates regression as a sequence generation task, has emerged as a promising paradigm of applying large language models for numerical prediction. However, its progress is hindered by the misalignment between discrete token-level objectives (e.g., cross-entropy) and continuous numerical values. Existing approaches relying on token-level constraints often fail to capture the global magnitude of the target value, limiting their precision and generalization. In this paper, we propose to unlock the potential of decoding-based regression via Reinforcement Learning (RL). We formulate the generation process as a Markov Decision Process, utilizing sequence-level rewards to enforce global numerical coherence. Extensive experiments on tabular regression and code metric regression demonstrate that our method (specifically with ReMax and GRPO) consistently outperforms both state-of-the-art token-level baselines and traditional regression heads, showing the superiority of introducing sequence-level signals. Our analysis further reveals that RL significantly enhances sampling efficiency and predictive precision, establishing decoding-based regression as a robust and accurate paradigm for general-purpose numerical prediction.

Retrieval heads, attention heads that copy information from earlier context to the current position, have been proposed as the mechanistic substrate for long-context recall. Rotary position embeddings (RoPE) rotate queries and keys by frequencies decaying with a base hyperparameter theta, and a natural hypothesis is that this rotation either prevents retrieval heads from forming or degrades their function. We test both across four open-weight 7-8B models spanning multi-head and grouped-query attention and a 100x range of theta, using paired-seed needle-in-a-haystack tests, layer-clustered permutation, and causal head-masking. (i) Retrieval heads are causally necessary: masking the 87 detected heads in OLMo-2 collapses recall from 1.00 to 0.00, while masking matched random heads has no effect; this replicates in Qwen. (ii) Higher theta does not reduce retrieval-head count (LLaMA-3.1 at theta=500K has 47 heads vs LLaMA-2 at theta=10K with 42), refuting the prevention hypothesis. (iii) The norm-utility relation is family-specific and significant in opposite directions (Qwen d=-0.49, OLMo d=+0.50, both significant; LLaMA null); since OLMo and LLaMA-3.1 share theta=500K yet differ, the effect is not theta-driven. (iv) Building on Chiang and Yogatama (2025), a controlled patch shows that zeroing the lowest-frequency RoPE dimensions of retrieval heads degrades recall dose-dependently (1.00 to 0.18 when 32 of 128 dimensions are zeroed, vs 0.98 for random dimensions); the effect is head-specific and task-specific. The causal variable is RoPE frequency, not norm-utility. The direction holds in all five models patched (OLMo-2, Qwen2.5-7B/14B, Gemma-2, Mistral) across four lineages and two scales. We do not claim cross-model magnitude. Code and a paired-seed harness are released.

We consider the classic supervised learning problem, where a continuous non-negative random label Y (i.e. a random duration) is to be predicted based upon observing a random vector X valued in R^d with dgeq 1 by means of a regression rule with minimum least square error. In various applications, ranging from industrial quality control to public health through credit risk analysis for instance, training observations can be right censored, meaning that, rather than on independent copies of (X,Y), statistical learning relies on a collection of ngeq 1 independent realizations of the triplet (X, ; min{Y,; C},; δ), where C is a nonnegative r.v. with unknown distribution, modeling censorship and δ=I{Yleq C} indicates whether the duration is right censored or not. As ignoring censorship in the risk computation may clearly lead to a severe underestimation of the target duration and jeopardize prediction, we propose to consider a plug-in estimate of the true risk based on a Kaplan-Meier estimator of the conditional survival function of the censorship C given X, referred to as Kaplan-Meier risk, in order to perform empirical risk minimization. It is established, under mild conditions, that the learning rate of minimizers of this biased/weighted empirical risk functional is of order O_{P}(log(n)/n) when ignoring model bias issues inherent to plug-in estimation, as can be attained in absence of censorship. Beyond theoretical results, numerical experiments are presented in order to illustrate the relevance of the approach developed.

This paper introduces an interdisciplinary framework called Machine Psychology, which merges principles from operant learning psychology with a specific Artificial Intelligence model, the Non-Axiomatic Reasoning System (NARS), to enhance Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) research. The core premise of this framework is that adaptation is crucial to both biological and artificial intelligence and can be understood through operant conditioning principles. The study assesses this approach via three operant learning tasks using OpenNARS for Applications (ONA): simple discrimination, changing contingencies, and conditional discrimination tasks. In the simple discrimination task, NARS demonstrated rapid learning, achieving perfect accuracy during both training and testing phases. The changing contingencies task showcased NARS's adaptability, as it successfully adjusted its behavior when task conditions were reversed. In the conditional discrimination task, NARS handled complex learning scenarios effectively, achieving high accuracy by forming and utilizing intricate hypotheses based on conditional cues. These findings support the application of operant conditioning as a framework for creating adaptive AGI systems. NARS's ability to operate under conditions of insufficient knowledge and resources, coupled with its sensorimotor reasoning capabilities, establishes it as a robust model for AGI. The Machine Psychology framework, by incorporating elements of natural intelligence such as continuous learning and goal-driven behavior, offers a scalable and flexible approach for real-world applications. Future research should investigate using enhanced NARS systems, more advanced tasks, and applying this framework to diverse, complex challenges to further progress the development of human-level AI.

Developing an agent capable of adapting to unseen environments remains a difficult challenge in imitation learning. This work presents Adaptive Return-conditioned Policy (ARP), an efficient framework designed to enhance the agent's generalization ability using natural language task descriptions and pre-trained multimodal encoders. Our key idea is to calculate a similarity between visual observations and natural language instructions in the pre-trained multimodal embedding space (such as CLIP) and use it as a reward signal. We then train a return-conditioned policy using expert demonstrations labeled with multimodal rewards. Because the multimodal rewards provide adaptive signals at each timestep, our ARP effectively mitigates the goal misgeneralization. This results in superior generalization performances even when faced with unseen text instructions, compared to existing text-conditioned policies. To improve the quality of rewards, we also introduce a fine-tuning method for pre-trained multimodal encoders, further enhancing the performance. Video demonstrations and source code are available on the project website: https://sites.google.com/view/2023arp.

The increasing frequency of extreme weather events due to global climate change urges accurate weather prediction. Recently, great advances have been made by the end-to-end methods, thanks to deep learning techniques, but they face limitations of representation inconsistency in multivariable integration and struggle to effectively capture the dependency between variables, which is required in complex weather systems. Treating different variables as distinct modalities and applying a two-stage training approach from multimodal models can partially alleviate this issue, but due to the inconformity in training tasks between the two stages, the results are often suboptimal. To address these challenges, we propose an implicit two-stage training method, configuring separate encoders and decoders for each variable. In detailed, in the first stage, the Translator is frozen while the Encoders and Decoders learn a shared latent space, in the second stage, the Encoders and Decoders are frozen, and the Translator captures inter-variable interactions for prediction. Besides, by introducing a self-attention mechanism for multivariable fusion in the latent space, the performance achieves further improvements. Empirically, extensive experiments show the state-of-the-art performance of our method. Specifically, it reduces the MSE for near-surface air temperature and relative humidity predictions by 28.82\% and 23.39\%, respectively. The source code is available at https://github.com/ShremG/Met2Net.

Motivated by a wide variety of applications, ranging from stochastic optimization to dimension reduction through variable selection, the problem of estimating gradients accurately is of crucial importance in statistics and learning theory. We consider here the classic regression setup, where a real valued square integrable r.v. Y is to be predicted upon observing a (possibly high dimensional) random vector X by means of a predictive function f(X) as accurately as possible in the mean-squared sense and study a nearest-neighbour-based pointwise estimate of the gradient of the optimal predictive function, the regression function m(x)=E[Ymid X=x]. Under classic smoothness conditions combined with the assumption that the tails of Y-m(X) are sub-Gaussian, we prove nonasymptotic bounds improving upon those obtained for alternative estimation methods. Beyond the novel theoretical results established, several illustrative numerical experiments have been carried out. The latter provide strong empirical evidence that the estimation method proposed works very well for various statistical problems involving gradient estimation, namely dimensionality reduction, stochastic gradient descent optimization and quantifying disentanglement.

Offline optimization has recently emerged as an increasingly popular approach to mitigate the prohibitively expensive cost of online experimentation. The key idea is to learn a surrogate of the black-box function that underlines the target experiment using a static (offline) dataset of its previous input-output queries. Such an approach is, however, fraught with an out-of-distribution issue where the learned surrogate becomes inaccurate outside the offline data regimes. To mitigate this, existing offline optimizers have proposed numerous conditioning techniques to prevent the learned surrogate from being too erratic. Nonetheless, such conditioning strategies are often specific to particular surrogate or search models, which might not generalize to a different model choice. This motivates us to develop a model-agnostic approach instead, which incorporates a notion of model sharpness into the training loss of the surrogate as a regularizer. Our approach is supported by a new theoretical analysis demonstrating that reducing surrogate sharpness on the offline dataset provably reduces its generalized sharpness on unseen data. Our analysis extends existing theories from bounding generalized prediction loss (on unseen data) with loss sharpness to bounding the worst-case generalized surrogate sharpness with its empirical estimate on training data, providing a new perspective on sharpness regularization. Our extensive experimentation on a diverse range of optimization tasks also shows that reducing surrogate sharpness often leads to significant improvement, marking (up to) a noticeable 9.6% performance boost. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/cuong-dm/IGNITE

We seek to understand fundamental tradeoffs between the accuracy of prior information that a learner has on a given problem and its learning performance. We introduce the notion of prioritized risk, which differs from traditional notions of minimax and Bayes risk by allowing us to study such fundamental tradeoffs in settings where reality does not necessarily conform to the learner's prior. We present a general reduction-based approach for extending classical minimax lower-bound techniques in order to lower bound the prioritized risk for statistical estimation problems. We also introduce a novel generalization of Fano's inequality (which may be of independent interest) for lower bounding the prioritized risk in more general settings involving unbounded losses. We illustrate the ability of our framework to provide insights into tradeoffs between prior information and learning performance for problems in estimation, regression, and reinforcement learning.

Estimating the causal effects of a spatially-varying intervention on a spatially-varying outcome may be subject to non-local confounding (NLC), a phenomenon that can bias estimates when the treatments and outcomes of a given unit are dictated in part by the covariates of other nearby units. In particular, NLC is a challenge for evaluating the effects of environmental policies and climate events on health-related outcomes such as air pollution exposure. This paper first formalizes NLC using the potential outcomes framework, providing a comparison with the related phenomenon of causal interference. Then, it proposes a broadly applicable framework, termed "weather2vec", that uses the theory of balancing scores to learn representations of non-local information into a scalar or vector defined for each observational unit, which is subsequently used to adjust for confounding in conjunction with causal inference methods. The framework is evaluated in a simulation study and two case studies on air pollution where the weather is an (inherently regional) known confounder.

In this paper, we focus on the task of conditional image generation, where an image is synthesized according to user instructions. The critical challenge underpinning this task is ensuring both the fidelity of the generated images and their semantic alignment with the provided conditions. To tackle this issue, previous studies have employed supervised perceptual losses derived from pre-trained models, i.e., reward models, to enforce alignment between the condition and the generated result. However, we observe one inherent shortcoming: considering the diversity of synthesized images, the reward model usually provides inaccurate feedback when encountering newly generated data, which can undermine the training process. To address this limitation, we propose an uncertainty-aware reward modeling, called Ctrl-U, including uncertainty estimation and uncertainty-aware regularization, designed to reduce the adverse effects of imprecise feedback from the reward model. Given the inherent cognitive uncertainty within reward models, even images generated under identical conditions often result in a relatively large discrepancy in reward loss. Inspired by the observation, we explicitly leverage such prediction variance as an uncertainty indicator. Based on the uncertainty estimation, we regularize the model training by adaptively rectifying the reward. In particular, rewards with lower uncertainty receive higher loss weights, while those with higher uncertainty are given reduced weights to allow for larger variability. The proposed uncertainty regularization facilitates reward fine-tuning through consistency construction. Extensive experiments validate the effectiveness of our methodology in improving the controllability and generation quality, as well as its scalability across diverse conditional scenarios. Code will soon be available at https://grenoble-zhang.github.io/Ctrl-U-Page/.

Supervised learning is often affected by a covariate shift in which the marginal distributions of instances (covariates x) of training and testing samples p_tr(x) and p_te(x) are different but the label conditionals coincide. Existing approaches address such covariate shift by either using the ratio p_te(x)/p_tr(x) to weight training samples (reweighted methods) or using the ratio p_tr(x)/p_te(x) to weight testing samples (robust methods). However, the performance of such approaches can be poor under support mismatch or when the above ratios take large values. We propose a minimax risk classification (MRC) approach for covariate shift adaptation that avoids such limitations by weighting both training and testing samples. In addition, we develop effective techniques that obtain both sets of weights and generalize the conventional kernel mean matching method. We provide novel generalization bounds for our method that show a significant increase in the effective sample size compared with reweighted methods. The proposed method also achieves enhanced classification performance in both synthetic and empirical experiments.

Credit assignment is a central challenge in reinforcement learning (RL). Classical actor-critic methods address this challenge through fine-grained advantage estimation based on a learned value function. However, learned value models are often avoided in modern large language model (LLM) RL because conventional discriminative critics are difficult to train reliably. We revisit value modeling and argue that this difficulty is partly due to limited expressiveness. In particular, representation complexity theory suggests that value functions can be hard to approximate under the one-shot prediction paradigm used by existing value models, and our scaling experiments show that such critics do not improve reliably with scale. Motivated by this observation, we propose Generative Actor-Critic (GenAC), which replaces one-shot scalar value prediction with a generative critic that performs chain-of-thought reasoning before producing a value estimate. We further introduce In-Context Conditioning, which helps the critic remain calibrated to the current actor throughout training. GenAC improves value approximation, ranking reliability, and out-of-distribution generalization, and these gains translate into stronger downstream RL performance than both value-based and value-free baselines. Overall, our results suggest that stronger value modeling is a promising direction for improving credit assignment in LLM reinforcement learning.

Conventional supervised learning methods typically assume i.i.d samples and are found to be sensitive to out-of-distribution (OOD) data. We propose Generative Causal Representation Learning (GCRL) which leverages causality to facilitate knowledge transfer under distribution shifts. While we evaluate the effectiveness of our proposed method in human trajectory prediction models, GCRL can be applied to other domains as well. First, we propose a novel causal model that explains the generative factors in motion forecasting datasets using features that are common across all environments and with features that are specific to each environment. Selection variables are used to determine which parts of the model can be directly transferred to a new environment without fine-tuning. Second, we propose an end-to-end variational learning paradigm to learn the causal mechanisms that generate observations from features. GCRL is supported by strong theoretical results that imply identifiability of the causal model under certain assumptions. Experimental results on synthetic and real-world motion forecasting datasets show the robustness and effectiveness of our proposed method for knowledge transfer under zero-shot and low-shot settings by substantially outperforming the prior motion forecasting models on out-of-distribution prediction. Our code is available at https://github.com/sshirahmad/GCRL.

Survey data are self-reported data collected directly from respondents by a questionnaire or an interview and are commonly used in epidemiology. Such data are traditionally collected via a single mode (e.g. face-to-face interview alone), but use of mixed-mode designs (e.g. offering face-to-face interview or online survey) has become more common. This introduces two key challenges. First, individuals may respond differently to the same question depending on the mode; these differences due to measurement are known as 'mode effects'. Second, different individuals may participate via different modes; these differences in sample composition between modes are known as 'mode selection'. Where recognised, mode effects are often handled by straightforward approaches such as conditioning on survey mode. However, while reducing mode effects, this and other equivalent approaches may introduce collider bias in the presence of mode selection. The existence of mode effects and the consequences of na\"ive conditioning may be underappreciated in epidemiology. This paper offers a simple introduction to these challenges using directed acyclic graphs by exploring a range of possible data structures. We discuss the potential implications of using conditioning- or imputation-based approaches and outline the advantages of quantitative bias analyses for dealing with mode effects.

Recent alignment studies commonly remove introductory boilerplate phrases from supervised fine-tuning (SFT) datasets. This work challenges that assumption. We hypothesize that safety- and reasoning-oriented prefix sentences serve as lightweight alignment signals that can guide model decoding toward safer and more coherent responses. To examine this, we fine-tune three R1 series models across three core model capabilities: reasoning (mathematics, coding), safety, and factuality, systematically varying prefix inclusion from 0% to 100%. Results show that prefix-conditioned SFT improves both safety and reasoning performance, yielding up to +6% higher Safe@1 accuracy on adversarial benchmarks (WildJailbreak, StrongReject) and +7% improvement on GSM8K reasoning. However, factuality and coding tasks show marginal or negative effects, indicating that prefix-induced narrowing of the search space benefits structured reasoning. Token-level loss analysis further reveals that prefix tokens such as "revised" and "logically" incur higher gradient magnitudes, acting as alignment anchors that stabilize reasoning trajectories. Our findings suggest that prefix conditioning offers a scalable and interpretable mechanism for improving reasoning safety, serving as an implicit form of alignment that complements traditional reward-based methods.

Estimating the impact of continuous treatment variables (e.g., dosage amount) on binary outcomes presents significant challenges in modeling and estimation because many existing approaches make strong assumptions that do not hold for certain continuous treatment variables. For instance, traditional logistic regression makes strong linearity assumptions that do not hold for continuous treatment variables like time of initiation. In this work, we propose a semiparametric regression framework that decomposes effects into two interpretable components: a prognostic score that captures baseline outcome risk based on a combination of clinical, genetic, and sociodemographic features, and a treatment-interaction score that flexibly models the optimal treatment level via a nonparametric link function. By connecting these two parametric scores with Nadaraya-Watson regression, our approach is both interpretable and flexible. The potential of our approach is demonstrated through numerical simulations that show empirical estimation convergence. We conclude by applying our approach to a real-world case study using the International Warfarin Pharmacogenomics Consortium (IWPC) dataset to show our approach's clinical utility by deriving personalized warfarin dosing recommendations that integrate both genetic and clinical data, providing insights towards enhancing patient safety and therapeutic efficacy in anticoagulation therapy.

Voxel-wise dose prediction is a critical yet challenging task in practical radiotherapy (RT) planning, as bespoke models trained from scratch often struggle to generalize across diverse clinical settings. Meanwhile, generative models trained on billion-scale datasets from vision domains have achieved impressive performance. Herein, we propose DiffKT3D, a unified Any2Any 3D diffusion framework that leverages prior knowledge from pretrained video diffusion models for efficient and clinically meaningful dose prediction. To enable flexible conditioning across multiple clinical modalities (CT, anatomical structures, body, beam settings, etc.), we introduce an Any2Any conditional paradigm utilizing modality-specific embeddings without cross-attention overhead. Further, we design a novel reinforcement learning (RL) post-training mechanism guided by a clinically-informed Scorecard explicitly tailored to institutional treatment preferences. Compared with winner of GDP-HMM challenge, DiffKT3D sets a new state-of-the-art in dose prediction by reducing voxel-level MAE from 2.07 to 1.93. In addition, DiffKT3D achieves superior image quality and preference match. These results demonstrate that transferring diffusion priors via modality-aware conditioning and clinically aligned RL post-training can provide a robust and generalizable solution for RT planning across various clinical scenarios.

Survival analysis is crucial for many medical applications, but remains challenging for modern machine learning due to limited data, censoring, and the heterogeneity of tabular covariates. While the prior-fitted paradigm, which relies on pretraining models on large collections of synthetic datasets, has recently facilitated tabular foundation models for classification and regression, its suitability for time-to-event modeling remains unclear. We propose a flexible survival data generation framework that defines a rich survival prior with explicit control over covariates and time-event distributions. Building on this prior, we introduce Survival In-Context (SIC), a prior-fitted in-context learning model for survival analysis that is pretrained exclusively on synthetic data. SIC is trained to approximate Bayesian posterior predictive inference under the synthetic survival prior, enabling individualized survival prediction in a single forward pass, requiring no task-specific training or hyperparameter tuning. Across a broad evaluation on real-world survival datasets, SIC achieves competitive or superior performance compared to classical and deep survival models, particularly in small and medium-sized data regimes, highlighting the promise of a prior-fitted paradigm for survival analysis. The code and pretrained models will be made available upon publication.

We present a novel approach to symbolic regression using vision-capable large language models (LLMs) and the ideas behind Google DeepMind's Funsearch. The LLM is given a plot of a univariate function and tasked with proposing an ansatz for that function. The free parameters of the ansatz are fitted using standard numerical optimisers, and a collection of such ansätze make up the population of a genetic algorithm. Unlike other symbolic regression techniques, our method does not require the specification of a set of functions to be used in regression, but with appropriate prompt engineering, we can arbitrarily condition the generative step. By using Kolmogorov Arnold Networks (KANs), we demonstrate that ``univariate is all you need'' for symbolic regression, and extend this method to multivariate functions by learning the univariate function on each edge of a trained KAN. The combined expression is then simplified by further processing with a language model.

Training deep neural networks for 3D segmentation tasks can be challenging, often requiring efficient and effective strategies to improve model performance. In this study, we introduce a novel approach, DeCode, that utilizes label-derived features for model conditioning to support the decoder in the reconstruction process dynamically, aiming to enhance the efficiency of the training process. DeCode focuses on improving 3D segmentation performance through the incorporation of conditioning embedding with learned numerical representation of 3D-label shape features. Specifically, we develop an approach, where conditioning is applied during the training phase to guide the network toward robust segmentation. When labels are not available during inference, our model infers the necessary conditioning embedding directly from the input data, thanks to a feed-forward network learned during the training phase. This approach is tested using synthetic data and cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) images of teeth. For CBCT, three datasets are used: one publicly available and two in-house. Our results show that DeCode significantly outperforms traditional, unconditioned models in terms of generalization to unseen data, achieving higher accuracy at a reduced computational cost. This work represents the first of its kind to explore conditioning strategies in 3D data segmentation, offering a novel and more efficient method for leveraging annotated data. Our code, pre-trained models are publicly available at https://github.com/SanoScience/DeCode .

It has long been hypothesised that causal reasoning plays a fundamental role in robust and general intelligence. However, it is not known if agents must learn causal models in order to generalise to new domains, or if other inductive biases are sufficient. We answer this question, showing that any agent capable of satisfying a regret bound under a large set of distributional shifts must have learned an approximate causal model of the data generating process, which converges to the true causal model for optimal agents. We discuss the implications of this result for several research areas including transfer learning and causal inference.

Self-Distillation is a special type of knowledge distillation where the student model has the same architecture as the teacher model. Despite using the same architecture and the same training data, self-distillation has been empirically observed to improve performance, especially when applied repeatedly. For such a process, there is a fundamental question of interest: How much gain is possible by applying multiple steps of self-distillation? To investigate this relative gain, we propose studying the simple but canonical task of linear regression. Our analysis shows that the excess risk achieved by multi-step self-distillation can significantly improve upon a single step of self-distillation, reducing the excess risk by a factor as large as d, where d is the input dimension. Empirical results on regression tasks from the UCI repository show a reduction in the learnt model's risk (MSE) by up to 47%.

The teaching career shares common global characteristics, such as internal promotion, performance evaluation, recruitment of top candidates, continuous training, specialization, and peer learning. This study aims to describe the factors associated with the value placed on the teaching career in Peru. A total of 28217 public school teachers were analyzed using data from the 2020 National Teacher Survey. A variable measuring the "value of the teaching career" was constructed using eight indicators and categorized as low, medium, or high. Another variable, vision of the future, was classified as pessimistic, conformist, or optimistic. This observational, cross-sectional, and analytical study included variables related to in-service training, working conditions, professional recognition, and sociodemographic characteristics. Among the teachers surveyed, 45.8 % expressed an optimistic outlook on the future of the profession, 48 % held a conformist view, and only 6.2 % reported a pessimistic perspective. A generalized linear model revealed that the value placed on the teaching career was significantly associated with male gender (p = 0.002), a professional career (p < 0.001), an optimistic outlook (p = 0.033), and working at the primary level (p < 0.001). It was concluded that Peruvian teachers predominantly hold conformist or optimistic views of their profession. This highlights the need to reinforce merit-based advancement, competency-based training, intrinsic motivation, and ongoing professional development

Subliminal learning lets a student inherit a teacher's hidden trait from distillation data that never names it. We ask when such transfer can be audited before training. The answer is not model identity or scale alone, but channel location: the carrier through which the trait reaches the student. We find three regimes. In a controlled initialization-dependent body channel, a pre-training screen works. Coverage, the cosine between the student's initial distillation update and the teacher's fine-tuning displacement, predicts held-out transfer (Spearman ρapprox 0.95; AUROC 0.997). In pretrained language models, masked single-token traits instead ride convergent vocabulary geometry. This channel is initialization-independent, so initialization-alignment screens, including coverage, are not mechanistic; the useful handles are post-hoc detection and targeted mitigation. Even when a single-token named entity is removed from the loss, the student's held-out probability for that entity rises to 0.40 on average (sim 2500times), and a related semantic class transfers. In an untied-head model, orthogonalizing the trait's output row against entangled neighbours collapses leakage, while equal-size random-subspace edits do not. Thus removing a target string from distillation labels does not remove the corresponding preference: neighbouring tokens can carry it. Finally, conditional behaviours can route through the network body. For sycophancy, with agreement and correction markers masked from the loss, transfer reaches about 0.63 of the teacher's effect, localizes to body computation, and evades four audits across two model families. We scope this as masked transfer of a condition-present policy. Channel location is necessary for deciding which audits can be sound. It is not a deployment-ready screen: an audit used outside its carrier regime can give false assurance.

A ubiquitous feature of data of our era is their extra-large sizes and dimensions. Analyzing such high-dimensional data poses significant challenges, since the feature dimension is often much larger than the sample size. This thesis introduces robust and computationally efficient methods to address several common challenges associated with high-dimensional data. In my first manuscript, I propose a coherent approach to variable screening that accommodates nonlinear associations. I develop a novel variable screening method that transcends traditional linear assumptions by leveraging mutual information, with an intended application in neuroimaging data. This approach allows for accurate identification of important variables by capturing nonlinear as well as linear relationships between the outcome and covariates. Building on this foundation, I develop new optimization methods for sparse estimation using nonconvex penalties in my second manuscript. These methods address notable challenges in current statistical computing practices, facilitating computationally efficient and robust analyses of complex datasets. The proposed method can be applied to a general class of optimization problems. In my third manuscript, I contribute to robust modeling of high-dimensional correlated observations by developing a mixed-effects model based on Tsallis power-law entropy maximization and discussed the theoretical properties of such distribution. This model surpasses the constraints of conventional Gaussian models by accommodating a broader class of distributions with enhanced robustness to outliers. Additionally, I develop a proximal nonlinear conjugate gradient algorithm that accelerates convergence while maintaining numerical stability, along with rigorous statistical properties for the proposed framework.

Machine learning (ML) holds great potential for accurately forecasting treatment outcomes over time, which could ultimately enable the adoption of more individualized treatment strategies in many practical applications. However, a significant challenge that has been largely overlooked by the ML literature on this topic is the presence of informative sampling in observational data. When instances are observed irregularly over time, sampling times are typically not random, but rather informative -- depending on the instance's characteristics, past outcomes, and administered treatments. In this work, we formalize informative sampling as a covariate shift problem and show that it can prohibit accurate estimation of treatment outcomes if not properly accounted for. To overcome this challenge, we present a general framework for learning treatment outcomes in the presence of informative sampling using inverse intensity-weighting, and propose a novel method, TESAR-CDE, that instantiates this framework using Neural CDEs. Using a simulation environment based on a clinical use case, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in learning under informative sampling.

For text-based AI systems to interact in the real world, causal reasoning is an essential skill. Since interventional data is costly to generate, we study to what extent an agent can learn causal reasoning from passive data. Specifically, we consider an axiomatic training setup where an agent learns from multiple demonstrations of a causal axiom (or rule), rather than incorporating the axiom as an inductive bias or inferring it from data values. A key question is whether the agent would learn to generalize from the axiom demonstrations to new scenarios. For example, if a transformer model is trained on demonstrations of the causal transitivity axiom over small graphs, would it generalize to applying the transitivity axiom over large graphs? Our results, based on a novel axiomatic training scheme, indicate that such generalization is possible. We consider the task of inferring whether a variable causes another variable, given a causal graph structure. We find that a 67 million parameter transformer model, when trained on linear causal chains (along with some noisy variations) can generalize well to new kinds of graphs, including longer causal chains, causal chains with reversed order, and graphs with branching; even when it is not explicitly trained for such settings. Our model performs at par (or even better) than many larger language models such as GPT-4, Gemini Pro, and Phi-3. Overall, our axiomatic training framework provides a new paradigm of learning causal reasoning from passive data that can be used to learn arbitrary axioms, as long as sufficient demonstrations can be generated.

Out-of-distribution (OOD) prediction is often approached by restricting models to causal or invariant covariates, avoiding non-causal spurious associations that may be unstable across environments. Despite its theoretical appeal, this strategy frequently underperforms empirical risk minimization (ERM) in practice. We investigate the source of this gap and show that such failures naturally arise when only a subset of the true causes of the outcome is observed. In these settings, non-causal spurious covariates can serve as informative proxies for unobserved causes and substantially improve prediction, except under distribution shifts that break these proxy relationships. Consequently, the optimal set of predictive covariates is neither universal nor necessarily exhibits invariant relationships with the outcome across all environments, but instead depends on the specific type of shift encountered. Crucially, we observe that different covariate shifts induce distinct, observable signatures in the covariate distribution itself. Moreover, these signatures can be extracted from unlabeled data in the target OOD environment and used to assess when proxy covariates remain reliable and when they fail. Building on this observation, we propose an environment-adaptive covariate selection (EACS) algorithm that maps environment-level covariate summaries to environment-specific covariate sets, while allowing the incorporation of prior causal knowledge as constraints. Across simulations and applied datasets, EACS consistently outperforms static causal, invariant, and ERM-based predictors under diverse distribution shifts.

Reward models are critical for aligning models to follow instructions, and are typically trained following one of two popular paradigms: Bradley-Terry style or Regression style. However, there is a lack of evidence that either approach is better than the other, when adequately matched for data. This is primarily because these approaches require data collected in different (but incompatible) formats, meaning that adequately matched data is not available in existing public datasets. To tackle this problem, we release preference annotations (designed for Bradley-Terry training) to complement existing ratings (designed for Regression style training) in the HelpSteer2 dataset. To improve data interpretability, preference annotations are accompanied with human-written justifications. Using this data, we conduct the first head-to-head comparison of Bradley-Terry and Regression models when adequately matched for data. Based on insights derived from such a comparison, we propose a novel approach to combine Bradley-Terry and Regression reward modeling. A Llama-3.1-70B-Instruct model tuned with this approach scores 94.1 on RewardBench, emerging top of more than 140 reward models as of 1 Oct 2024. We also demonstrate the effectiveness of this reward model at aligning models to follow instructions in RLHF. We open-source this dataset (CC-BY-4.0 license) at https://huggingface.co/datasets/nvidia/HelpSteer2 and openly release the trained Reward Model at https://huggingface.co/nvidia/Llama-3.1-Nemotron-70B-Reward

We develop a method to generate predictive regions that cover a multivariate response variable with a user-specified probability. Our work is composed of two components. First, we use a deep generative model to learn a representation of the response that has a unimodal distribution. Existing multiple-output quantile regression approaches are effective in such cases, so we apply them on the learned representation, and then transform the solution to the original space of the response. This process results in a flexible and informative region that can have an arbitrary shape, a property that existing methods lack. Second, we propose an extension of conformal prediction to the multivariate response setting that modifies any method to return sets with a pre-specified coverage level. The desired coverage is theoretically guaranteed in the finite-sample case for any distribution. Experiments conducted on both real and synthetic data show that our method constructs regions that are significantly smaller compared to existing techniques.

We study regressions with multiple treatments and a set of controls that is flexible enough to purge omitted variable bias. We show that these regressions generally fail to estimate convex averages of heterogeneous treatment effects -- instead, estimates of each treatment's effect are contaminated by non-convex averages of the effects of other treatments. We discuss three estimation approaches that avoid such contamination bias, including the targeting of easiest-to-estimate weighted average effects. A re-analysis of nine empirical applications finds economically and statistically meaningful contamination bias in observational studies; contamination bias in experimental studies is more limited due to smaller variability in propensity scores.

We introduce Feasible Learning (FL), a sample-centric learning paradigm where models are trained by solving a feasibility problem that bounds the loss for each training sample. In contrast to the ubiquitous Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM) framework, which optimizes for average performance, FL demands satisfactory performance on every individual data point. Since any model that meets the prescribed performance threshold is a valid FL solution, the choice of optimization algorithm and its dynamics play a crucial role in shaping the properties of the resulting solutions. In particular, we study a primal-dual approach which dynamically re-weights the importance of each sample during training. To address the challenge of setting a meaningful threshold in practice, we introduce a relaxation of FL that incorporates slack variables of minimal norm. Our empirical analysis, spanning image classification, age regression, and preference optimization in large language models, demonstrates that models trained via FL can learn from data while displaying improved tail behavior compared to ERM, with only a marginal impact on average performance.

Should prediction models always deliver a prediction? In the pursuit of maximum predictive performance, critical considerations of reliability and fairness are often overshadowed, particularly when it comes to the role of uncertainty. Selective regression, also known as the "reject option," allows models to abstain from predictions in cases of considerable uncertainty. Initially proposed seven decades ago, approaches to selective regression have mostly focused on distribution-based proxies for measuring uncertainty, particularly conditional variance. However, this focus neglects the significant influence of model-specific biases on a model's performance. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to selective regression by leveraging conformal prediction, which provides grounded confidence measures for individual predictions based on model-specific biases. In addition, we propose a standardized evaluation framework to allow proper comparison of selective regression approaches. Via an extensive experimental approach, we demonstrate how our proposed approach, conformalized selective regression, demonstrates an advantage over multiple state-of-the-art baselines.

Text-to-image models trained on large-scale data often inevitably ingest unsafe content. While some people observe input-output amplifications, it remains unclear whether and how training data composition directly drives model output safety or by other factors. We shed light on this question by isolating this variable: we train the same text-to-image model on datasets that differ only in their fraction of unsafe images (0\% to 9.6\%), across several dataset scales (100K to 8M). Then we generate images with the resulting models, and evaluate them with four independent safety classifiers. Output unsafety rises monotonically from 16.6\% at 0\% contamination to 25.5\% at 5\%. A factorial design reveals that the proportion, not the absolute count, of unsafe training images is the operative variable. The 16.6\% irreducible baseline at zero contamination implicates the other components, e.g. frozen text encoder, as a residual safety risk -- confirmed by a text encoder ablation showing that SafeCLIP reduces this floor to 9.6\%, while the dose-response effect persists across all three encoders tested. Critically, no quality degradation in terms of FID, CLIPscore and ImageReward accompanies safety filtering. These results establish that data curation and text encoder safety are complementary and independently effective interventions. At the same time, the remaining level of unsafety poses questions for future research about emerging capabilities and compositionality.

Conditioning a language model on additional context, such as feedback on a previous attempt, typically improves its response. Self-distillation trains the model to retain this improvement when the context is not present. The method works by matching the model's output distribution under two settings: a student that sees only the question, and a self-teacher that also sees the context. What the model learns therefore depends on what context the self-teacher receives, yet the design of this context remains largely unexplored. We study context design for self-distillation by training a solver on feedback from a frozen critic. We compare three conditions: (i) a binary reward (GRPO), (ii) the reference solution, and (iii) a step-by-step critique aligned to the solver's reasoning trace. Step-aligned critique yields the largest gains, outperforming GRPO by 16.11 points and reference-solution-conditioned self-distillation by 5.27 points (Avg@12). Per-token advantage analysis reveals why: step-aligned feedback targets only the tokens where reasoning fails, leaving correct behavior intact. Conditioning on the reference solution, by contrast, pressures the model to change its behavior at every token (even correct steps) because an alternative derivation inevitably differs in phrasing and approach. This suggests that structural alignment between feedback and the solver's reasoning is a key driver of self-distillation effectiveness.

The game show Lucky 13 differs from other television game shows in that contestants are required to place a bet on their own knowledge of trivia by selecting a range that contains the number of questions that they answered correctly. We present a model for this game show using binomial random variables and generate tables outlining the optimal range the player should select based on maximization of two different utility functions. After analyzing the decisions made by some actual contestants on this show, we present a numerical simulation for how many questions an average player is expected to answer correctly based on question categories observed for two sample contestants.

Machine learning models trained on Earth observation data, such as satellite imagery, have demonstrated significant promise in predicting household-level wealth indices, enabling the creation of high-resolution wealth maps that can be leveraged across multiple causal trials. However, because standard training objectives prioritize overall predictive accuracy, these predictions inherently suffer from shrinkage toward the mean, leading to attenuated estimates of causal treatment effects and limiting their utility in policy. Existing debiasing methods, such as Prediction-Powered Inference, can handle this attenuation bias but require additional fresh ground-truth data at the downstream stage of causal inference, which restricts their applicability in data-scarce environments. Here, we introduce and evaluate two correction methods -- linear calibration correction and Tweedie's correction -- that substantially reduce prediction bias without relying on newly collected labeled data. Linear calibration corrects bias through a straightforward linear transformation derived from held-out calibration data, whereas Tweedie's correction leverages empirical Bayes principles to directly address shrinkage-induced biases by exploiting score functions derived from the model's learning patterns. Through analytical exercises and experiments using Demographic and Health Survey data, we demonstrate that the proposed methods meet or outperform existing approaches that either require (a) adjustments to training pipelines or (b) additional labeled data. These approaches may represent a promising avenue for improving the reliability of causal inference when direct outcome measures are limited or unavailable, enabling a "one map, many trials" paradigm where a single upstream data creation team produces predictions usable by many downstream teams across diverse ML pipelines.

Reconstructing continuous speech from scalp electroencephalography (EEG) remains fundamentally challenging. EEG provides a weak, spatially diffuse, and highly variable measurement of distributed cortical activity, whereas speech is organized as a coherent acoustic trajectory with strong harmonic and temporal structure. The resulting mismatch makes waveform regression unstable and causes stochastic multi-step generation to be sensitive to artifact-dependent conditioning and subject variability. We introduce NeuroSonic, a conditional flow-matching framework for EEG-to-speech reconstruction. Instead of predicting waveforms directly or refining them through stochastic denoising, NeuroSonic learns a deterministic probability-flow velocity field that transports a noise-corrupted acoustic state toward clean speech under EEG conditioning. EEG and audio are embedded into a shared token space and processed by a time-conditioned gated Transformer that parameterizes the transport ordinary differential equation. This formulation models trajectory evolution explicitly while avoiding iterative stochastic sampling. We evaluate NeuroSonic on the CineBrain and EAV benchmarks under cross-subject evaluation. Across both datasets, the proposed method improves distributional realism, spectral fidelity, and perceptual quality over representative GAN-, diffusion-, and mean-flow baselines, with up to a 26.3\% gain in overall perceptual quality. The performance gap is most evident in artifact-heavy segments, where conditioning variability is strongest. These findings indicate that deterministic conditional transport provides a stable and effective formulation for EEG-driven speech reconstruction. Code is available at https://github.com/Y-Research-SBU/NeuroSonic/ .

Discovering the underlying mathematical expressions describing a dataset is a core challenge for artificial intelligence. This is the problem of symbolic regression. Despite recent advances in training neural networks to solve complex tasks, deep learning approaches to symbolic regression are underexplored. We propose a framework that leverages deep learning for symbolic regression via a simple idea: use a large model to search the space of small models. Specifically, we use a recurrent neural network to emit a distribution over tractable mathematical expressions and employ a novel risk-seeking policy gradient to train the network to generate better-fitting expressions. Our algorithm outperforms several baseline methods (including Eureqa, the gold standard for symbolic regression) in its ability to exactly recover symbolic expressions on a series of benchmark problems, both with and without added noise. More broadly, our contributions include a framework that can be applied to optimize hierarchical, variable-length objects under a black-box performance metric, with the ability to incorporate constraints in situ, and a risk-seeking policy gradient formulation that optimizes for best-case performance instead of expected performance.