Daily Papers

Existing optical flow methods broadly follow two paradigms: iterative optimization and diffusion-based estimation. Iterative methods, exemplified by RAFT, achieve high accuracy through recurrent refinement, but remain challenged by large displacements and complex motion. Diffusion-based methods introduce generative modeling and show promise in such ambiguous regions. However, existing diffusion models usually denoise the entire dense flow field from Gaussian noise, including simple regions where reliable motion can already be estimated by a lightweight network. This increases the denoising burden and may cause slow convergence and unstable training. To address this issue, we introduce FlowPainter, a diffusion-based optical flow framework that reformulates dense-flow generation as confidence-guided soft inpainting. FlowPainter employs a lightweight confidence-aware network to predict a rough flow and a pixel-wise confidence mask, distinguishing reliable simple regions from uncertain hard regions. The resulting simple-flow prior is used for confidence-based initialization and further injected into iterative denoising through confidence-gated residual guidance. With dynamically decaying guidance strength, FlowPainter stabilizes early denoising while preserving the flexibility of the diffusion model for late-stage detail refinement. Extensive experiments on public benchmarks, including Sintel, KITTI, and Spring, show that FlowPainter achieves strong accuracy under comparable training settings and converges more efficiently than existing diffusion-based optical flow methods, with notable gains on challenging benchmark splits. Our approach offers a practical way to integrate reliable discriminative priors with diffusion-based refinement for optical flow estimation. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/mya012/FlowPainter.

End-to-end vision-based imitation learning has demonstrated promising results in autonomous driving by learning control commands directly from expert demonstrations. However, traditional approaches rely on either regressionbased models, which provide precise control but lack confidence estimation, or classification-based models, which offer confidence scores but suffer from reduced precision due to discretization. This limitation makes it challenging to quantify the reliability of predicted actions and apply corrections when necessary. In this work, we introduce a dual-head neural network architecture that integrates both regression and classification heads to improve decision reliability in imitation learning. The regression head predicts continuous driving actions, while the classification head estimates confidence, enabling a correction mechanism that adjusts actions in low-confidence scenarios, enhancing driving stability. We evaluate our approach in a closed-loop setting within the CARLA simulator, demonstrating its ability to detect uncertain actions, estimate confidence, and apply real-time corrections. Experimental results show that our method reduces lane deviation and improves trajectory accuracy by up to 50%, outperforming conventional regression-only models. These findings highlight the potential of classification-guided confidence estimation in enhancing the robustness of vision-based imitation learning for autonomous driving. The source code is available at https://github.com/ElaheDlv/Confidence_Aware_IL.

Nucleus segmentation is a challenging task due to the crowded distribution and blurry boundaries of nuclei. Recent approaches represent nuclei by means of polygons to differentiate between touching and overlapping nuclei and have accordingly achieved promising performance. Each polygon is represented by a set of centroid-to-boundary distances, which are in turn predicted by features of the centroid pixel for a single nucleus. However, using the centroid pixel alone does not provide sufficient contextual information for robust prediction and thus degrades the segmentation accuracy. To handle this problem, we propose a Context-aware Polygon Proposal Network (CPP-Net) for nucleus segmentation. First, we sample a point set rather than one single pixel within each cell for distance prediction. This strategy substantially enhances contextual information and thereby improves the robustness of the prediction. Second, we propose a Confidence-based Weighting Module, which adaptively fuses the predictions from the sampled point set. Third, we introduce a novel Shape-Aware Perceptual (SAP) loss that constrains the shape of the predicted polygons. Here, the SAP loss is based on an additional network that is pre-trained by means of mapping the centroid probability map and the pixel-to-boundary distance maps to a different nucleus representation. Extensive experiments justify the effectiveness of each component in the proposed CPP-Net. Finally, CPP-Net is found to achieve state-of-the-art performance on three publicly available databases, namely DSB2018, BBBC06, and PanNuke. Code of this paper is available at \url{https://github.com/csccsccsccsc/cpp-net

Medical image segmentation faces critical challenges in semi-supervised learning scenarios due to severe annotation scarcity requiring expert radiological knowledge, significant inter-annotator variability across different viewpoints and expertise levels, and inadequate multi-scale feature integration for precise boundary delineation in complex anatomical structures. Existing semi-supervised methods demonstrate substantial performance degradation compared to fully supervised approaches, particularly in small target segmentation and boundary refinement tasks. To address these fundamental challenges, we propose SASNet (Scale-aware Adaptive Supervised Network), a dual-branch architecture that leverages both low-level and high-level feature representations through novel scale-aware adaptive reweight mechanisms. Our approach introduces three key methodological innovations, including the Scale-aware Adaptive Reweight strategy that dynamically weights pixel-wise predictions using temporal confidence accumulation, the View Variance Enhancement mechanism employing 3D Fourier domain transformations to simulate annotation variability, and segmentation-regression consistency learning through signed distance map algorithms for enhanced boundary precision. These innovations collectively address the core limitations of existing semi-supervised approaches by integrating spatial, temporal, and geometric consistency principles within a unified optimization framework. Comprehensive evaluation across LA, Pancreas-CT, and BraTS datasets demonstrates that SASNet achieves superior performance with limited labeled data, surpassing state-of-the-art semi-supervised methods while approaching fully supervised performance levels. The source code for SASNet is available at https://github.com/HUANGLIZI/SASNet.

Long-horizon Flexible Job-Shop Scheduling~(FJSP) presents a formidable combinatorial challenge due to complex, interdependent decisions spanning extended time horizons. While learning-based Rolling Horizon Optimization~(RHO) has emerged as a promising paradigm to accelerate solving by identifying and fixing invariant operations, its effectiveness is hindered by the structural complexity of FJSP. Existing methods often fail to capture intricate graph-structured dependencies and ignore the asymmetric costs of prediction errors, in which misclassifying critical-path operations is significantly more detrimental than misclassifying non-critical ones. Furthermore, dynamic shifts in predictive confidence during the rolling process make static pruning thresholds inadequate. To address these limitations, we propose Graph-RHO, a novel critical-path-aware graph-based RHO framework. First, we introduce a topology-aware heterogeneous graph network that encodes subproblems as operation-machine graphs with multi-relational edges, leveraging edge-feature-aware message passing to predict operation stability. Second, we incorporate a critical-path-aware mechanism that injects inductive biases during training to distinguish highly sensitive bottleneck operations from robust ones. Third, we devise an adaptive thresholding strategy that dynamically calibrates decision boundaries based on online uncertainty estimation to align model predictions with the solver's search space. Extensive experiments on standard benchmarks demonstrate that Graph-RHO establishes a new state of the art in solution quality and computational efficiency. Remarkably, it exhibits exceptional zero-shot generalization, reducing solve time by over 30\% on large-scale instances (2000 operations) while achieving superior solution quality. Our code is available https://github.com/IntelliSensing/Graph-RHO{here}.

Transformer-based trackers have achieved promising success and become the dominant tracking paradigm due to their accuracy and efficiency. Despite the substantial progress, most of the existing approaches tackle object tracking as a deterministic coordinate regression problem, while the target localization uncertainty has been greatly overlooked, which hampers trackers' ability to maintain reliable target state prediction in challenging scenarios. To address this issue, we propose UncTrack, a novel uncertainty-aware transformer tracker that predicts the target localization uncertainty and incorporates this uncertainty information for accurate target state inference. Specifically, UncTrack utilizes a transformer encoder to perform feature interaction between template and search images. The output features are passed into an uncertainty-aware localization decoder (ULD) to coarsely predict the corner-based localization and the corresponding localization uncertainty. Then the localization uncertainty is sent into a prototype memory network (PMN) to excavate valuable historical information to identify whether the target state prediction is reliable or not. To enhance the template representation, the samples with high confidence are fed back into the prototype memory bank for memory updating, making the tracker more robust to challenging appearance variations. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method outperforms other state-of-the-art methods. Our code is available at https://github.com/ManOfStory/UncTrack.

Ensuring reliable confidence scores from deep neural networks is of paramount significance in critical decision-making systems, particularly in real-world domains such as healthcare. Recent literature on calibrating deep segmentation networks has resulted in substantial progress. Nevertheless, these approaches are strongly inspired by the advancements in classification tasks, and thus their uncertainty is usually modeled by leveraging the information of individual pixels, disregarding the local structure of the object of interest. Indeed, only the recent Spatially Varying Label Smoothing (SVLS) approach considers pixel spatial relationships across classes, by softening the pixel label assignments with a discrete spatial Gaussian kernel. In this work, we first present a constrained optimization perspective of SVLS and demonstrate that it enforces an implicit constraint on soft class proportions of surrounding pixels. Furthermore, our analysis shows that SVLS lacks a mechanism to balance the contribution of the constraint with the primary objective, potentially hindering the optimization process. Based on these observations, we propose NACL (Neighbor Aware CaLibration), a principled and simple solution based on equality constraints on the logit values, which enables to control explicitly both the enforced constraint and the weight of the penalty, offering more flexibility. Comprehensive experiments on a wide variety of well-known segmentation benchmarks demonstrate the superior calibration performance of the proposed approach, without affecting its discriminative power. Furthermore, ablation studies empirically show the model agnostic nature of our approach, which can be used to train a wide span of deep segmentation networks.

Human mobility prediction is a fundamental task essential for various applications in urban planning, location-based services and intelligent transportation systems. Existing methods often ignore activity information crucial for reasoning human preferences and routines, or adopt a simplified representation of the dependencies between time, activities and locations. To address these issues, we present Hierarchical Graph Attention Recurrent Network (HGARN) for human mobility prediction. Specifically, we construct a hierarchical graph based on past mobility records and employ a Hierarchical Graph Attention Module to capture complex time-activity-location dependencies. This way, HGARN can learn representations with rich human travel semantics to model user preferences at the global level. We also propose a model-agnostic history-enhanced confidence (MAHEC) label to incorporate each user's individual-level preferences. Finally, we introduce a Temporal Module, which employs recurrent structures to jointly predict users' next activities and their associated locations, with the former used as an auxiliary task to enhance the latter prediction. For model evaluation, we test the performance of HGARN against existing state-of-the-art methods in both the recurring (i.e., returning to a previously visited location) and explorative (i.e., visiting a new location) settings. Overall, HGARN outperforms other baselines significantly in all settings based on two real-world human mobility data benchmarks. These findings confirm the important role that human activities play in determining mobility decisions, illustrating the need to develop activity-aware intelligent transportation systems. Source codes of this study are available at https://github.com/YihongT/HGARN.

Single object tracking in satellite videos is inherently challenged by small target, blurred background, large aspect ratio changes, and frequent visual occlusions. These constraints often cause appearance-based trackers to accumulate errors and lose targets irreversibly. To systematically mitigate both spatial ambiguities and temporal information loss, we propose SiamGM, a novel geometry-aware and motion-guided Siamese network. From a spatial perspective, we introduce an Inter-Frame Graph Attention (IFGA) module, closely integrated with an Aspect Ratio-Constrained Label Assignment (LA) method, establishing fine-grained topological correspondences and explicitly preventing surrounding background noise. From a temporal perspective, we introduce the Motion Vector-Guided Online Tracking Optimization method. By adopting the Normalized Peak-to-Sidelobe Ratio (nPSR) as a dynamic confidence indicator, we propose an Online Motion Model Refinement (OMMR) strategy to utilize historical trajectory information. Evaluations on two challenging SatSOT and SV248S benchmarks confirm that SiamGM outperforms most state-of-the-art trackers in both precision and success metrics. Notably, the proposed components of SiamGM introduce virtually no computational overhead, enabling real-time tracking at 130 frames per second (FPS). Codes and tracking results are available at https://github.com/wenzx18/SiamGM.

Remote sensing object detection (RSOD) faces formidable challenges in complex visual environments. Aerial and satellite images inherently suffer from limitations such as low spatial resolution, sensor noise, blurred objects, low-light degradation, and partial occlusions. These degradation factors collectively compromise the feature discriminability in detection models, resulting in three key issues: (1) reduced contrast that hampers foreground-background separation, (2) structural discontinuities in edge representations, and (3) ambiguous feature responses caused by variations in illumination. These collectively weaken model robustness and deployment feasibility. To address these challenges, we propose LEGNet, a lightweight network that incorporates a novel edge-Gaussian aggregation (EGA) module specifically designed for low-quality remote sensing images. Our key innovation lies in the synergistic integration of Scharr operator-based edge priors with uncertainty-aware Gaussian modeling: (a) The orientation-aware Scharr filters preserve high-frequency edge details with rotational invariance; (b) The uncertainty-aware Gaussian layers probabilistically refine low-confidence features through variance estimation. This design enables precision enhancement while maintaining architectural simplicity. Comprehensive evaluations across four RSOD benchmarks (DOTA-v1.0, v1.5, DIOR-R, FAIR1M-v1.0) and a UAV-view dataset (VisDrone2019) demonstrate significant improvements. LEGNet achieves state-of-the-art performance across five benchmark datasets while ensuring computational efficiency, making it well-suited for deployment on resource-constrained edge devices in real-world remote sensing applications. The code is available at https://github.com/lwCVer/LEGNet.

Realistic graphs contain both (1) rich self-features of nodes and (2) informative structures of neighborhoods, jointly handled by a Graph Neural Network (GNN) in the typical setup. We propose to decouple the two modalities by Mixture of weak and strong experts (Mowst), where the weak expert is a light-weight Multi-layer Perceptron (MLP), and the strong expert is an off-the-shelf GNN. To adapt the experts' collaboration to different target nodes, we propose a "confidence" mechanism based on the dispersion of the weak expert's prediction logits. The strong expert is conditionally activated in the low-confidence region when either the node's classification relies on neighborhood information, or the weak expert has low model quality. We reveal interesting training dynamics by analyzing the influence of the confidence function on loss: our training algorithm encourages the specialization of each expert by effectively generating soft splitting of the graph. In addition, our "confidence" design imposes a desirable bias toward the strong expert to benefit from GNN's better generalization capability. Mowst is easy to optimize and achieves strong expressive power, with a computation cost comparable to a single GNN. Empirically, Mowst on 4 backbone GNN architectures show significant accuracy improvement on 6 standard node classification benchmarks, including both homophilous and heterophilous graphs (https://github.com/facebookresearch/mowst-gnn).

SwiGLU has become a standard gated activation in modern Transformer MLPs, yet its gate sharpness -- the smoothness and selectivity of the gating function -- is typically fixed throughout training. In this work, we propose Confidence-Aware SwiGLU (κ-SwiGLU), a variant of SwiGLU for Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) models that adjusts expert gate sharpness according to token-level routing confidence. Specifically, κ-SwiGLU parameterizes the SiLU gate sharpness coefficient as a learnable function of the router logit, enabling each expert gate unit to interpolate between smooth, broadly active gating and sharp, selective gating. We evaluate κ-SwiGLU on the FineWeb-Edu dataset across MoE Transformer models ranging from 8 to 28 layers. Across these settings, κ-SwiGLU improves mean CORE performance while adding negligible parameters and incurring only a small computational overhead, demonstrating that confidence-aware gate sharpness is a promising mechanism for improving MoE MLPs. The code is available at https://github.com/askerlee/kappa-swiglu.

This paper presents a new methodology to alleviate the fundamental trade-off between accuracy and latency in spiking neural networks (SNNs). The approach involves decoding confidence information over time from the SNN outputs and using it to develop a decision-making agent that can dynamically determine when to terminate each inference. The proposed method, Dynamic Confidence, provides several significant benefits to SNNs. 1. It can effectively optimize latency dynamically at runtime, setting it apart from many existing low-latency SNN algorithms. Our experiments on CIFAR-10 and ImageNet datasets have demonstrated an average 40% speedup across eight different settings after applying Dynamic Confidence. 2. The decision-making agent in Dynamic Confidence is straightforward to construct and highly robust in parameter space, making it extremely easy to implement. 3. The proposed method enables visualizing the potential of any given SNN, which sets a target for current SNNs to approach. For instance, if an SNN can terminate at the most appropriate time point for each input sample, a ResNet-50 SNN can achieve an accuracy as high as 82.47% on ImageNet within just 4.71 time steps on average. Unlocking the potential of SNNs needs a highly-reliable decision-making agent to be constructed and fed with a high-quality estimation of ground truth. In this regard, Dynamic Confidence represents a meaningful step toward realizing the potential of SNNs.

Despite the remarkable success of deep neural networks in a myriad of settings, several works have demonstrated their overwhelming sensitivity to near-imperceptible perturbations, known as adversarial attacks. On the other hand, prior works have also observed that deep networks can be under-sensitive, wherein large-magnitude perturbations in input space do not induce appreciable changes to network activations. In this work, we study in detail the phenomenon of under-sensitivity in vision models such as CNNs and Transformers, and present techniques to study the geometry and extent of "equi-confidence" level sets of such networks. We propose a Level Set Traversal algorithm that iteratively explores regions of high confidence with respect to the input space using orthogonal components of the local gradients. Given a source image, we use this algorithm to identify inputs that lie in the same equi-confidence level set as the source image despite being perceptually similar to arbitrary images from other classes. We further observe that the source image is linearly connected by a high-confidence path to these inputs, uncovering a star-like structure for level sets of deep networks. Furthermore, we attempt to identify and estimate the extent of these connected higher-dimensional regions over which the model maintains a high degree of confidence. The code for this project is publicly available at https://github.com/SriramB-98/blindspots-neurips-sub

Large reasoning models often reach correct answers through flawed intermediate steps, creating a gap between final accuracy and reasoning reliability. Existing alignment strategies address this with external verifiers or massive sampling, limiting scalability. In this work, we introduce CASPO (Confidence-Aware Step-wise Preference Optimization), a framework that aligns token-level confidence with step-wise logical correctness through iterative Direct Preference Optimization, without training a separate reward model. During inference, we propose Confidence-aware Thought (CaT), which leverages this calibrated confidence to dynamically prune uncertain reasoning branches with negligible O(V) latency. Experiments across ten benchmarks and multiple model families show that CASPO consistently improves reasoning reliability and inference efficiency. CASPO scales to Qwen3-8B-Base and surpasses tree-search baselines on AIME'24 and AIME'25 without using reward-model data. We also release a step-wise dataset with confidence annotations to support fine-grained analysis of reasoning reliability. Code is available at https://github.com/Thecommonirin/CASPO.

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive performance on several tasks and are increasingly deployed in real-world applications. However, especially in high-stakes settings, it becomes vital to know when the output of an LLM may be unreliable. Depending on whether an answer is trustworthy, a system can then choose to route the question to another expert, or otherwise fall back on a safe default behavior. In this work, we study the extent to which LLMs can reliably indicate confidence in their answers, and how this notion of confidence can translate into downstream accuracy gains. We propose Self-REF, a lightweight training strategy to teach LLMs to express confidence in whether their answers are correct in a reliable manner. Self-REF introduces confidence tokens into the LLM, from which a confidence score can be extracted. Compared to conventional approaches such as verbalizing confidence and examining token probabilities, we demonstrate empirically that confidence tokens show significant improvements in downstream routing and rejection learning tasks.

Recent work explores latent reasoning to improve reasoning efficiency by replacing explicit reasoning trajectories with continuous representations in a latent space, yet its effectiveness varies across settings. Analysis of model confidence dynamics under latent reasoning reveals that thinking trajectories ending in incorrect answers contain fewer low-confidence steps than those ending in correct answers. Meanwhile, we suggest that soft embeddings aggregated by multiple low-confidence thinking alternatives may introduce and propagate noise, leading to high confidence in unreliable reasoning trajectories. Motivated by these observations, ThinkRouter, an inference-time confidence-aware routing mechanism is proposed to avoid high confidence and noise for efficient reasoning. ThinkRouter routes thinking to the discrete token space when model confidence is low, and to the latent space otherwise. Extensive experiments on STEM reasoning and coding benchmarks across diverse large reasoning models demonstrate that ThinkRouter outperforms explicit CoT, random routing, and latent reasoning baselines in terms of accuracy, achieving an average improvement of 19.70 points in Pass@1, while reducing generation length by up to 15.55%. Further comprehensive analysis reveals that ThinkRouter can calibrate errors arising from explicit CoT and latent reasoning, and accelerates end-of-thinking token generation by globally lowering model confidence.

While confidence estimation is a promising direction for mitigating hallucinations in Large Language Models (LLMs), current research dominantly focuses on single-turn settings. The dynamics of model confidence in multi-turn conversations, where context accumulates and ambiguity is progressively resolved, remain largely unexplored. Reliable confidence estimation in multi-turn settings is critical for many downstream applications, such as autonomous agents and human-in-the-loop systems. This work presents the first systematic study of confidence estimation in multi-turn interactions, establishing a formal evaluation framework grounded in two key desiderata: per-turn calibration and monotonicity of confidence as more information becomes available. To facilitate this, we introduce novel metrics, including a length-normalized Expected Calibration Error (InfoECE), and a new "Hinter-Guesser" paradigm for generating controlled evaluation datasets. Our experiments reveal that widely-used confidence techniques struggle with calibration and monotonicity in multi-turn dialogues. We propose P(Sufficient), a logit-based probe that achieves comparatively better performance, although the task remains far from solved. Our work provides a foundational methodology for developing more reliable and trustworthy conversational agents.

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) are able to achieve high classification accuracy on many important real world datasets, but provide no rigorous notion of predictive uncertainty. Quantifying the confidence of GNN models is difficult due to the dependence between datapoints induced by the graph structure. We leverage recent advances in conformal prediction to construct prediction sets for node classification in inductive learning scenarios. We do this by taking an existing approach for conformal classification that relies on exchangeable data and modifying it by appropriately weighting the conformal scores to reflect the network structure. We show through experiments on standard benchmark datasets using popular GNN models that our approach provides tighter and better calibrated prediction sets than a naive application of conformal prediction.

While significant advances exist in pseudo-label generation for semi-supervised semantic segmentation, pseudo-label selection remains understudied. Existing methods typically use fixed confidence thresholds to retain high-confidence predictions as pseudo-labels. However, these methods cannot cope with network overconfidence tendency, where correct and incorrect predictions overlap significantly in high-confidence regions, making separation challenging and amplifying model cognitive bias. Meanwhile, the direct discarding of low-confidence predictions disrupts spatial-semantic continuity, causing critical context loss. We propose Confidence Separable Learning (CSL) to address these limitations. CSL formulates pseudo-label selection as a convex optimization problem within the confidence distribution feature space, establishing sample-specific decision boundaries to distinguish reliable from unreliable predictions. Additionally, CSL introduces random masking of reliable pixels to guide the network in learning contextual relationships from low-reliability regions, thereby mitigating the adverse effects of discarding uncertain predictions. Extensive experimental results on the Pascal, Cityscapes, and COCO benchmarks show that CSL performs favorably against state-of-the-art methods. Code and model weights are available at https://github.com/PanLiuCSU/CSL.

Multi-object tracking (MOT) with camera-LiDAR fusion demands accurate results of object detection, affinity computation and data association in real time. This paper presents an efficient multi-modal MOT framework with online joint detection and tracking schemes and robust data association for autonomous driving applications. The novelty of this work includes: (1) development of an end-to-end deep neural network for joint object detection and correlation using 2D and 3D measurements; (2) development of a robust affinity computation module to compute occlusion-aware appearance and motion affinities in 3D space; (3) development of a comprehensive data association module for joint optimization among detection confidences, affinities and start-end probabilities. The experiment results on the KITTI tracking benchmark demonstrate the superior performance of the proposed method in terms of both tracking accuracy and processing speed.

Energy efficiency of Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) has become an important area of research, with various strategies being developed to minimize the power consumption of these models. Previous efforts, including techniques like model pruning, quantization, and hardware optimization, have made significant strides in this direction. However, there remains a need for more effective on device AI solutions that balance energy efficiency with model performance. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to reduce the energy requirements of inference of CNNs. Our methodology employs two small Complementary CNNs that collaborate with each other by covering each other's "weaknesses" in predictions. If the confidence for a prediction of the first CNN is considered low, the second CNN is invoked with the aim of producing a higher confidence prediction. This dual-CNN setup significantly reduces energy consumption compared to using a single large deep CNN. Additionally, we propose a memory component that retains previous classifications for identical inputs, bypassing the need to re-invoke the CNNs for the same input, further saving energy. Our experiments on a Jetson Nano computer demonstrate an energy reduction of up to 85.8% achieved on modified datasets where each sample was duplicated once. These findings indicate that leveraging a complementary CNN pair along with a memory component effectively reduces inference energy while maintaining high accuracy.

We study the tradeoff between computational effort and classification accuracy in a cascade of deep neural networks. During inference, the user sets the acceptable accuracy degradation which then automatically determines confidence thresholds for the intermediate classifiers. As soon as the confidence threshold is met, inference terminates immediately without having to compute the output of the complete network. Confidence levels are derived directly from the softmax outputs of intermediate classifiers, as we do not train special decision functions. We show that using a softmax output as a confidence measure in a cascade of deep neural networks leads to a reduction of 15%-50% in the number of MAC operations while degrading the classification accuracy by roughly 1%. Our method can be easily incorporated into pre-trained non-cascaded architectures, as we exemplify on ResNet. Our main contribution is a method that dynamically adjusts the tradeoff between accuracy and computation without retraining the model.

Model evolution and constant availability of data are two common phenomena in large-scale real-world machine learning applications, e.g. ads and recommendation systems. To adapt, the real-world system typically retrain with all available data and online learn with recently available data to update the models periodically with the goal of better serving performance. In this paper, we propose a novel framework, named Confidence Ranking, which designs the optimization objective as a ranking function with two different models. Our confidence ranking loss allows direct optimization of the logits output for different convex surrogate functions of metrics, e.g. AUC and Accuracy depending on the target task and dataset. Armed with our proposed methods, our experiments show that the introduction of confidence ranking loss can outperform all baselines on the CTR prediction tasks of public and industrial datasets. This framework has been deployed in the advertisement system of JD.com to serve the main traffic in the fine-rank stage.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used in applications requiring factual accuracy, yet their outputs often contain hallucinated responses. While fact-checking can mitigate these errors, existing methods typically retrieve external evidence indiscriminately, overlooking the model's internal knowledge and potentially introducing irrelevant noise. Moreover, current systems lack targeted mechanisms to resolve specific uncertainties in the model's reasoning. Inspired by how humans fact-check, we argue that LLMs should adaptively decide whether to rely on internal knowledge or initiate retrieval based on their confidence in a given claim. We introduce Probabilistic Certainty and Consistency (PCC), a framework that estimates factual confidence by jointly modeling an LLM's probabilistic certainty and reasoning consistency. These confidence signals enable an adaptive verification strategy: the model answers directly when confident, triggers targeted retrieval when uncertain or inconsistent, and escalates to deep search when ambiguity is high. Our confidence-guided routing mechanism ensures that retrieval is invoked only when necessary, improving both efficiency and reliability. Extensive experiments across three challenging benchmarks show that PCC achieves better uncertainty quantification than verbalized confidence and consistently outperforms strong LLM-based fact-checking baselines. Furthermore, we demonstrate that PCC generalizes well across various LLMs.

Deploying large language models (LLMs) in edge-cloud environments requires an efficient routing strategy to balance cost and response quality. Traditional approaches prioritize either human-preference data or accuracy metrics from benchmark datasets as routing criteria, but these methods suffer from rigidity and subjectivity. Moreover, existing routing frameworks primarily focus on accuracy and cost, neglecting response quality from a human preference perspective. In this work, we propose the Confidence-Driven LLM Router, a novel framework that leverages uncertainty estimation to optimize routing decisions. To comprehensively assess routing performance, we evaluate both system cost efficiency and response quality. In particular, we introduce the novel use of LLM-as-a-Judge to simulate human rating preferences, providing the first systematic assessment of response quality across different routing strategies. Extensive experiments on MT-Bench, GSM8K, and MMLU demonstrate that our approach outperforms state-of-the-art routing methods, achieving superior response quality while maintaining cost efficiency.

Learning exists in the context of data, yet notions of confidence typically focus on model predictions, not label quality. Confident learning (CL) is an alternative approach which focuses instead on label quality by characterizing and identifying label errors in datasets, based on the principles of pruning noisy data, counting with probabilistic thresholds to estimate noise, and ranking examples to train with confidence. Whereas numerous studies have developed these principles independently, here, we combine them, building on the assumption of a class-conditional noise process to directly estimate the joint distribution between noisy (given) labels and uncorrupted (unknown) labels. This results in a generalized CL which is provably consistent and experimentally performant. We present sufficient conditions where CL exactly finds label errors, and show CL performance exceeding seven recent competitive approaches for learning with noisy labels on the CIFAR dataset. Uniquely, the CL framework is not coupled to a specific data modality or model (e.g., we use CL to find several label errors in the presumed error-free MNIST dataset and improve sentiment classification on text data in Amazon Reviews). We also employ CL on ImageNet to quantify ontological class overlap (e.g., estimating 645 "missile" images are mislabeled as their parent class "projectile"), and moderately increase model accuracy (e.g., for ResNet) by cleaning data prior to training. These results are replicable using the open-source cleanlab release.

Unsupervised learning of hierarchical representations has been one of the most vibrant research directions in deep learning during recent years. In this work we study biologically inspired unsupervised strategies in neural networks based on local Hebbian learning. We propose new mechanisms to extend the Bayesian Confidence Propagating Neural Network (BCPNN) architecture, and demonstrate their capability for unsupervised learning of salient hidden representations when tested on the MNIST dataset.

Estimating uncertainty or confidence in the responses of a model can be significant in evaluating trust not only in the responses, but also in the model as a whole. In this paper, we explore the problem of estimating confidence for responses of large language models (LLMs) with simply black-box or query access to them. We propose a simple and extensible framework where, we engineer novel features and train a (interpretable) model (viz. logistic regression) on these features to estimate the confidence. We empirically demonstrate that our simple framework is effective in estimating confidence of flan-ul2, llama-13b and mistral-7b with it consistently outperforming existing black-box confidence estimation approaches on benchmark datasets such as TriviaQA, SQuAD, CoQA and Natural Questions by even over 10% (on AUROC) in some cases. Additionally, our interpretable approach provides insight into features that are predictive of confidence, leading to the interesting and useful discovery that our confidence models built for one LLM generalize zero-shot across others on a given dataset.

Recent feed-forward geometry foundation models have demonstrated impressive generalization by recovering depth and poses in a single forward pass. However, these models are typically constrained by a global coordinate frame assumption. This dependency becomes a significant bottleneck for long-context and streaming reconstruction, as it forces the network to maintain an arbitrary temporal origin and handle translation magnitudes that grow unbounded over time. Our solution, which we call R^3, employs relative regression. We employ a lightweight MLP to predict confidence-weighted relative constraints. These confidences serve as a unified anchor: weighting losses during training and guiding pose aggregation during inference. R^3 supports both full-context offline reconstruction and causal, bounded-memory streaming. Our evaluation in both offline and streaming settings validates the effectiveness of our relative mechanism. Project page: https://kevinxu02.github.io/r3-site

Diffusion language models decode text by iteratively denoising masked token sequences, making the choice of which positions to decode a central inference-time decision. Most training-free decoding strategies use model confidence for position selection, assuming that high-confidence positions are ready to be decoded. In this work, we revisit this assumption by studying when confidence misleads fully non-autoregressive (fully non-AR) decoding. EOT tokens can receive high confidence and cause incomplete generation; inserting a suffix anchor can mitigate this issue but introduces local overconfidence near the anchor, causing anchor-adjacent tokens to be decoded too early. To address these issues, we propose Suffix-Anchored Confidence Modulation, a simple training-free method that inserts a short suffix anchor to encourage response completion and modulates confidence near the anchor according to decoding progress. This preserves the response-completion benefit of suffix anchoring while reducing premature decoding of anchor-adjacent tokens. Across text-only reasoning, vision-language reasoning, and code-generation benchmarks, our method consistently improves confidence-based fully non-AR decoding, outperforms explicit EOT suppression, and preserves the parallel decoding advantage of fully non-AR generation.

Most existing graph neural networks (GNNs) learn node embeddings using the framework of message passing and aggregation. Such GNNs are incapable of learning relative positions between graph nodes within a graph. To empower GNNs with the awareness of node positions, some nodes are set as anchors. Then, using the distances from a node to the anchors, GNNs can infer relative positions between nodes. However, P-GNNs arbitrarily select anchors, leading to compromising position-awareness and feature extraction. To eliminate this compromise, we demonstrate that selecting evenly distributed and asymmetric anchors is essential. On the other hand, we show that choosing anchors that can aggregate embeddings of all the nodes within a graph is NP-complete. Therefore, devising efficient optimal algorithms in a deterministic approach is practically not feasible. To ensure position-awareness and bypass NP-completeness, we propose Position-Sensing Graph Neural Networks (PSGNNs), learning how to choose anchors in a back-propagatable fashion. Experiments verify the effectiveness of PSGNNs against state-of-the-art GNNs, substantially improving performance on various synthetic and real-world graph datasets while enjoying stable scalability. Specifically, PSGNNs on average boost AUC more than 14% for pairwise node classification and 18% for link prediction over the existing state-of-the-art position-aware methods. Our source code is publicly available at: https://github.com/ZhenyueQin/PSGNN.

Multi-agent debates have been introduced to improve the accuracy of Large Language Models (LLMs) by having multiple agents discuss solutions to a problem over several rounds of debate. However, models often generate incorrect yet confident-sounding responses, which can mislead others. This issue arises partly because agents do not consider how confident their peers are. To address this, we propose DebUnc, a debate framework that uses uncertainty metrics to assess agent confidence. Confidence is then conveyed through a modified attention mechanism that adjusts token weights, or through textual prompts. Evaluations across benchmarks show that attention-based methods are particularly effective and that performance continues to improve as uncertainty estimation becomes more reliable. The code is available at https://github.com/lukeyoffe/debunc.

Current graph neural networks (GNNs) that tackle node classification on graphs tend to only focus on nodewise scores and are solely evaluated by nodewise metrics. This limits uncertainty estimation on graphs since nodewise marginals do not fully characterize the joint distribution given the graph structure. In this work, we propose novel edgewise metrics, namely the edgewise expected calibration error (ECE) and the agree/disagree ECEs, which provide criteria for uncertainty estimation on graphs beyond the nodewise setting. Our experiments demonstrate that the proposed edgewise metrics can complement the nodewise results and yield additional insights. Moreover, we show that GNN models which consider the structured prediction problem on graphs tend to have better uncertainty estimations, which illustrates the benefit of going beyond the nodewise setting.

Safe deployment of graph neural networks (GNNs) under distribution shift requires models to provide accurate confidence indicators (CI). However, while it is well-known in computer vision that CI quality diminishes under distribution shift, this behavior remains understudied for GNNs. Hence, we begin with a case study on CI calibration under controlled structural and feature distribution shifts and demonstrate that increased expressivity or model size do not always lead to improved CI performance. Consequently, we instead advocate for the use of epistemic uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods to modulate CIs. To this end, we propose G-DeltaUQ, a new single model UQ method that extends the recently proposed stochastic centering framework to support structured data and partial stochasticity. Evaluated across covariate, concept, and graph size shifts, G-DeltaUQ not only outperforms several popular UQ methods in obtaining calibrated CIs, but also outperforms alternatives when CIs are used for generalization gap prediction or OOD detection. Overall, our work not only introduces a new, flexible GNN UQ method, but also provides novel insights into GNN CIs on safety-critical tasks.

As Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in real-world settings, correctness alone is insufficient. Reliable deployment requires maintaining truthful beliefs under contextual perturbations. Existing evaluations largely rely on point-wise confidence like Self-Consistency, which can mask brittle belief. We show that even facts answered with perfect self-consistency can rapidly collapse under mild contextual interference. To address this gap, we propose Neighbor-Consistency Belief (NCB), a structural measure of belief robustness that evaluates response coherence across a conceptual neighborhood. To validate the efficiency of NCB, we introduce a new cognitive stress-testing protocol that probes outputs stability under contextual interference. Experiments across multiple LLMs show that the performance of high-NCB data is relatively more resistant to interference. Finally, we present Structure-Aware Training (SAT), which optimizes context-invariant belief structure and reduces long-tail knowledge brittleness by approximately 30%. Code will be available at https://github.com/zjunlp/belief.

Knowledge distillation (KD) has gained a lot of attention in the field of model compression for edge devices thanks to its effectiveness in compressing large powerful networks into smaller lower-capacity models. Online distillation, in which both the teacher and the student are learning collaboratively, has also gained much interest due to its ability to improve on the performance of the networks involved. The Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence ensures the proper knowledge transfer between the teacher and student. However, most online KD techniques present some bottlenecks under the network capacity gap. By cooperatively and simultaneously training, the models the KL distance becomes incapable of properly minimizing the teacher's and student's distributions. Alongside accuracy, critical edge device applications are in need of well-calibrated compact networks. Confidence calibration provides a sensible way of getting trustworthy predictions. We propose BD-KD: Balancing of Divergences for online Knowledge Distillation. We show that adaptively balancing between the reverse and forward divergences shifts the focus of the training strategy to the compact student network without limiting the teacher network's learning process. We demonstrate that, by performing this balancing design at the level of the student distillation loss, we improve upon both performance accuracy and calibration of the compact student network. We conducted extensive experiments using a variety of network architectures and show improvements on multiple datasets including CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100, Tiny-ImageNet, and ImageNet. We illustrate the effectiveness of our approach through comprehensive comparisons and ablations with current state-of-the-art online and offline KD techniques.

We performed a billion locality sensitive hash comparisons between artificially generated data samples to answer the critical question - can we verify the "correctness" of generative AI output in a non-deterministic, trustless, decentralized network? We generate millions of data samples from a variety of open source diffusion and large language models and describe the procedures and trade-offs between generating more verses less deterministic output in a heterogenous, stochastic network. Further, we analyze the outputs to provide empirical evidence of different parameterizations of tolerance and error bounds for verification. Finally, given that we have the generated an enormous amount of simulated data, we also release a new training dataset called ImageNet-Gen for use in augmenting existing training pipelines. For our results, we show that with a majority vote between three independent verifiers, we can detect image generated perceptual collisions in generated AI with over 99.89% probability and less than 0.0267% chance of intra-class collision. For large language models (LLMs), we are able to gain 100% consensus using greedy methods or n-way beam searches to generate consensus demonstrated on different LLMs. In the context of generative AI training, we pinpoint and minimize the major sources of stochasticity and present gossip and synchronization training techniques for verifiability. Thus, this work provides a practical, solid foundation for AI verification and consensus for the minimization of trust in a decentralized network.

We aim to improve the performance of regressing hand keypoints and segmenting pixel-level hand masks under new imaging conditions (e.g., outdoors) when we only have labeled images taken under very different conditions (e.g., indoors). In the real world, it is important that the model trained for both tasks works under various imaging conditions. However, their variation covered by existing labeled hand datasets is limited. Thus, it is necessary to adapt the model trained on the labeled images (source) to unlabeled images (target) with unseen imaging conditions. While self-training domain adaptation methods (i.e., learning from the unlabeled target images in a self-supervised manner) have been developed for both tasks, their training may degrade performance when the predictions on the target images are noisy. To avoid this, it is crucial to assign a low importance (confidence) weight to the noisy predictions during self-training. In this paper, we propose to utilize the divergence of two predictions to estimate the confidence of the target image for both tasks. These predictions are given from two separate networks, and their divergence helps identify the noisy predictions. To integrate our proposed confidence estimation into self-training, we propose a teacher-student framework where the two networks (teachers) provide supervision to a network (student) for self-training, and the teachers are learned from the student by knowledge distillation. Our experiments show its superiority over state-of-the-art methods in adaptation settings with different lighting, grasping objects, backgrounds, and camera viewpoints. Our method improves by 4% the multi-task score on HO3D compared to the latest adversarial adaptation method. We also validate our method on Ego4D, egocentric videos with rapid changes in imaging conditions outdoors.

Recent advances in handling long sequences have facilitated the exploration of long-context in-context learning (ICL). While much of the existing research emphasizes performance improvements driven by additional in-context examples, the influence on the trustworthiness of generated responses remains underexplored. This paper addresses this gap by investigating how increased examples influence predictive uncertainty, an essential aspect in trustworthiness. We begin by systematically quantifying the uncertainty of ICL with varying shot counts, analyzing the impact of example quantity. Through uncertainty decomposition, we introduce a novel perspective on performance enhancement, with a focus on epistemic uncertainty (EU). Our results reveal that additional examples reduce total uncertainty in both simple and complex tasks by injecting task-specific knowledge, thereby diminishing EU and enhancing performance. For complex tasks, these advantages emerge only after addressing the increased noise and uncertainty associated with longer inputs. Finally, we explore the evolution of internal confidence across layers, unveiling the mechanisms driving the reduction in uncertainty.

While large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable performance across diverse tasks, they fundamentally lack self-awareness and frequently exhibit overconfidence, assigning high confidence scores to incorrect predictions. Accurate confidence estimation is therefore critical for enhancing the trustworthiness and reliability of LLM-generated outputs. However, existing approaches suffer from coarse-grained scoring mechanisms that fail to provide fine-grained, continuous confidence estimates throughout the generation process. To address these limitations, we introduce FineCE, a novel confidence estimation method that delivers accurate, fine-grained confidence scores during text generation. Specifically, we first develop a comprehensive pipeline for constructing training data that effectively captures the underlying probabilistic distribution of LLM responses, and then train a model to predict confidence scores for arbitrary text sequences in a supervised manner. Furthermore, we propose a Backward Confidence Integration (BCI) strategy that leverages information from the subsequent text to enhance confidence estimation for the current sequence during inference. We also introduce three strategies for identifying optimal positions to perform confidence estimation within the generation process. Extensive experiments on multiple benchmark datasets demonstrate that FineCE consistently outperforms existing classical confidence estimation methods. Our code and all baselines used in the paper are available on GitHub.

Increasing test-time computation is a straightforward approach to enhancing the quality of responses in Large Language Models (LLMs). While Best-of-N sampling and Self-Consistency with majority voting are simple and effective, they require a fixed number of sampling responses for each query, regardless of its complexity. This could result in wasted computation for simpler questions and insufficient exploration for more challenging ones. In this work, we argue that model confidence of responses can be used for improving the efficiency of test-time scaling. Unfortunately, LLMs are known to be overconfident and provide unreliable confidence estimation. To address this limitation, we introduce Self-Calibration by distilling Self-Consistency-derived confidence into the model itself. This enables reliable confidence estimation at test time with one forward pass. We then design confidence-based efficient test-time scaling methods to handle queries of various difficulty, such as Early-Stopping for Best-of-N and Self-Consistency with calibrated confidence. Experiments on three LLMs across six datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach. Specifically, applying confidence-based Early Stopping to Best-of-N improves MathQA accuracy from 81.0 to 83.6 with a sample budget of 16 responses, indicating the efficacy of confidence-based sampling strategy at inference time.

This paper presents a novel technique for accelerating inference in large, pre-trained language models (LLMs) by introducing early exits during inference. The computational demands of these models, used across a wide range of applications, can be substantial. By capitalizing on the inherent variability in token complexity, our approach enables selective acceleration of the inference process. Specifically, we propose the integration of early exit ''heads'' atop existing transformer layers, which facilitate conditional terminations based on a confidence metric. These heads are trained in a self-supervised manner using the model's own predictions as training data, thereby eliminating the need for additional annotated data. The confidence metric, established using a calibration set, ensures a desired level of accuracy while enabling early termination when confidence exceeds a predetermined threshold. Notably, our method preserves the original accuracy and reduces computational time on certain tasks, leveraging the existing knowledge of pre-trained LLMs without requiring extensive retraining. This lightweight, modular modification has the potential to greatly enhance the practical usability of LLMs, particularly in applications like real-time language processing in resource-constrained environments.

Given the importance of getting calibrated predictions and reliable uncertainty estimations, various post-hoc calibration methods have been developed for neural networks on standard multi-class classification tasks. However, these methods are not well suited for calibrating graph neural networks (GNNs), which presents unique challenges such as accounting for the graph structure and the graph-induced correlations between the nodes. In this work, we conduct a systematic study on the calibration qualities of GNN node predictions. In particular, we identify five factors which influence the calibration of GNNs: general under-confident tendency, diversity of nodewise predictive distributions, distance to training nodes, relative confidence level, and neighborhood similarity. Furthermore, based on the insights from this study, we design a novel calibration method named Graph Attention Temperature Scaling (GATS), which is tailored for calibrating graph neural networks. GATS incorporates designs that address all the identified influential factors and produces nodewise temperature scaling using an attention-based architecture. GATS is accuracy-preserving, data-efficient, and expressive at the same time. Our experiments empirically verify the effectiveness of GATS, demonstrating that it can consistently achieve state-of-the-art calibration results on various graph datasets for different GNN backbones.

We introduce a simple, yet novel entropy-based framework to drive token efficiency in large language models during reasoning tasks. Our approach uses Shannon entropy from token-level logprobs as a confidence signal to enable early stopping, achieving 25-50% computational savings while maintaining task accuracy. Crucially, we demonstrate that entropy-based confidence calibration represents an emergent property of advanced post-training optimization present in modern reasoning models but notably absent in standard instruction-tuned and pre-trained models (Llama 3.3 70B). We show that the entropy threshold to stop reasoning varies from model to model but can be calculated easily in one shot using only a few examples from existing reasoning datasets. Our results indicate that advanced reasoning models often know that they've gotten a correct answer early on, and that this emergent confidence awareness can be exploited to save tokens and reduce latency. The framework demonstrates consistent performance across reasoning-optimized model families with 25-50% computational cost reduction while preserving accuracy, revealing that confidence mechanisms represent a distinguishing characteristic of modern post-trained reasoning systems versus their predecessors.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used in high-stakes settings, where overconfident responses can mislead users. Reliable confidence estimation has been shown to enhance trust and task accuracy. Yet existing methods face practical barriers: logits are often hidden, multi-sampling is computationally expensive, and verbalized numerical uncertainty (e.g., giving a 0-100 score) deviates from natural communication. We revisit linguistic confidence (LC), where models express uncertainty through hedging language (e.g., probably, might), offering a lightweight and human-centered alternative. To advance this direction, we (1) release the first diverse, large-scale dataset of hedging expressions with human-annotated confidence scores, and (2) propose a lightweight mapper that converts hedges into confidence scores at near-zero cost. Building on these resources, we (3) conduct the first systematic study of LC across modern LLMs and QA benchmarks, revealing that while most LLMs underperform in expressing reliable LC, carefully designed prompting achieves competitive calibration and discriminability. Finally, we (4) introduce a fine-tuning framework that further improves LC reliability. Taken together, our work positions linguistic confidence as a scalable, efficient, and human-aligned approach to LLM uncertainty estimation, and calls for deeper exploration of this promising yet underexplored direction.

Sparse Mixture of Experts (SMoE) has emerged as a key to achieving unprecedented scalability in deep learning. By activating only a small subset of parameters per sample, SMoE achieves an exponential increase in parameter counts while maintaining a constant computational overhead. However, SMoE models are susceptible to routing fluctuations--changes in the routing of a given input to its target expert--at the late stage of model training, leading to model non-robustness. In this work, we unveil the limitation of SMoE through the perspective of the probabilistic graphical model (PGM). Through this PGM framework, we highlight the independence in the expert-selection of tokens, which exposes the model to routing fluctuation and non-robustness. Alleviating this independence, we propose the novel Similarity-Aware (S)MoE, which considers interactions between tokens during expert selection. We then derive a new PGM underlying an (S)MoE-Attention block, going beyond just a single (S)MoE layer. Leveraging the token similarities captured by the attention matrix, we propose the innovative Attention-Aware (S)MoE, which employs the attention matrix to guide the routing of tokens to appropriate experts in (S)MoE. We theoretically prove that Similarity/Attention-Aware routing help reduce the entropy of expert selection, resulting in more stable token routing mechanisms. We empirically validate our models on various tasks and domains, showing significant improvements in reducing routing fluctuations, enhancing accuracy, and increasing model robustness over the baseline MoE-Transformer with token routing via softmax gating.

Driver observation models are rarely deployed under perfect conditions. In practice, illumination, camera placement and type differ from the ones present during training and unforeseen behaviours may occur at any time. While observing the human behind the steering wheel leads to more intuitive human-vehicle-interaction and safer driving, it requires recognition algorithms which do not only predict the correct driver state, but also determine their prediction quality through realistic and interpretable confidence measures. Reliable uncertainty estimates are crucial for building trust and are a serious obstacle for deploying activity recognition networks in real driving systems. In this work, we for the first time examine how well the confidence values of modern driver observation models indeed match the probability of the correct outcome and show that raw neural network-based approaches tend to significantly overestimate their prediction quality. To correct this misalignment between the confidence values and the actual uncertainty, we consider two strategies. First, we enhance two activity recognition models often used for driver observation with temperature scaling-an off-the-shelf method for confidence calibration in image classification. Then, we introduce Calibrated Action Recognition with Input Guidance (CARING)-a novel approach leveraging an additional neural network to learn scaling the confidences depending on the video representation. Extensive experiments on the Drive&Act dataset demonstrate that both strategies drastically improve the quality of model confidences, while our CARING model out-performs both, the original architectures and their temperature scaling enhancement, leading to best uncertainty estimates.

Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) perform strongly in complex reasoning tasks via Chain-of-Thought (CoT) prompting, but often suffer from verbose outputs caused by redundant content, increasing computational overhead, and degrading user experience. Existing compression methods either operate post-hoc pruning, risking disruption to reasoning coherence, or rely on sampling-based selection, which fails to intervene effectively during generation. In this work, we introduce a confidence-guided perspective to explain the emergence of redundant reflection in LRMs, identifying two key patterns: Confidence Deficit, where the model reconsiders correct steps due to low internal confidence, and Termination Delay, where reasoning continues even after reaching a confident answer. Based on this analysis, we propose ConCISE (Confidence-guided Compression In Step-by-step Efficient Reasoning), a framework that simplifies reasoning chains by reinforcing the model's confidence during inference, thus preventing the generation of redundant reflection steps. It integrates Confidence Injection to stabilize intermediate steps and Early Stopping to terminate reasoning when confidence is sufficient. Extensive experiments demonstrate that fine-tuning LRMs on ConCISE-generated data yields significantly shorter outputs, reducing length by up to approximately 50% under SimPO, while maintaining high task accuracy. ConCISE consistently outperforms existing baselines across multiple reasoning benchmarks.

Generalizing Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) to novel video domains is essential for real-world deployment but remains challenging due to the scarcity of labeled data. While In-Context Learning (ICL) offers a training-free adaptation path, standard methods rely on large annotated pools, which are often impractical in specialized environments like industrial or surgical settings since they require the experts' annotations. To bridge this gap, we introduce VIOLA (Video In-cOntext Learning with minimal Annotation), a label-efficient framework that synergizes minimal expert supervision with abundant unlabeled data. First, to maximize the efficiency of a strict annotation budget, we propose density-uncertainty-weighted sampling. Unlike standard diversity or uncertainty strategies that risk selecting visual outliers, our method leverages density estimation to identify samples that are simultaneously diverse, representative, and informative. Second, to utilize the remaining unlabeled data without noise propagation, we construct a hybrid pool and introduce confidence-aware retrieval and confidence-aware prompting. These mechanisms explicitly model label reliability, retrieving demonstrations based on a composite score of similarity and confidence while enabling the MLLM to adaptively distinguish between verified ground truths and noisy pseudo-labels. Extensive experiments across nine diverse benchmarks using four MLLMs demonstrate that our framework significantly outperforms various baselines in low-resource settings, achieving robust adaptation with minimal annotation costs.

Graph-based learning has emerged as a transformative approach for modeling complex relationships across diverse domains, yet its potential in wireless security remains largely unexplored. In this work, we introduce the first application of graph-based learning for jamming source localization, addressing the imminent threat of jamming attacks in wireless networks. Unlike geometric optimization techniques that struggle under environmental uncertainties and dense interference, we reformulate localization as an inductive graph regression task. Our approach integrates structured node representations that encode local and global signal aggregation, ensuring spatial coherence and adaptive signal fusion. To enhance robustness, we incorporate an attention-based graph neural network that adaptively refines neighborhood influence and introduces a confidence-guided estimation mechanism that dynamically balances learned predictions with domain-informed priors. We evaluate our approach under complex radio frequency environments with varying sampling densities and signal propagation conditions, conducting comprehensive ablation studies on graph construction, feature selection, and pooling strategies. Results demonstrate that our novel graph-based learning framework significantly outperforms established localization baselines, particularly in challenging scenarios with sparse and obfuscated signal information. Code is available at [https://github.com/daniaherzalla/gnn-jamming-source-localization](https://github.com/daniaherzalla/gnn-jamming-source-localization).

Message-passing graph neural networks (MPNNs) emerged as powerful tools for processing graph-structured input. However, they operate on a fixed input graph structure, ignoring potential noise and missing information. Furthermore, their local aggregation mechanism can lead to problems such as over-squashing and limited expressive power in capturing relevant graph structures. Existing solutions to these challenges have primarily relied on heuristic methods, often disregarding the underlying data distribution. Hence, devising principled approaches for learning to infer graph structures relevant to the given prediction task remains an open challenge. In this work, leveraging recent progress in exact and differentiable k-subset sampling, we devise probabilistically rewired MPNNs (PR-MPNNs), which learn to add relevant edges while omitting less beneficial ones. For the first time, our theoretical analysis explores how PR-MPNNs enhance expressive power, and we identify precise conditions under which they outperform purely randomized approaches. Empirically, we demonstrate that our approach effectively mitigates issues like over-squashing and under-reaching. In addition, on established real-world datasets, our method exhibits competitive or superior predictive performance compared to traditional MPNN models and recent graph transformer architectures.

We address the neural network robustness problem by adding Similarity (i.e., correctly predicted depth-matches into training)-awareness and Distance-to-training-distribution-awareness to the existing output Magnitude (i.e., decision-boundary)-awareness of the softmax function. The resulting SDM activation function provides strong signals of the relative epistemic (reducible) predictive uncertainty. We use this novel behavior to further address the complementary HCI problem of mapping the output to human-interpretable summary statistics over relevant partitions of a held-out calibration set. Estimates of prediction-conditional uncertainty are obtained via a parsimonious learned transform over the class-conditional empirical CDFs of the output of a final-layer SDM activation function. For decision-making and as an intrinsic model check, estimates of class-conditional accuracy are obtained by further partitioning the high-probability regions of this calibrated output into class-conditional, region-specific CDFs. The uncertainty estimates from SDM calibration are remarkably robust to test-time distribution shifts and out-of-distribution inputs; incorporate awareness of the effective sample size; provide estimates of uncertainty from the learning and data splitting processes; and are well-suited for selective classification and conditional branching for additional test-time compute based on the predictive uncertainty, as for selective LLM generation, routing, and composition over multiple models and retrieval. Finally, we construct SDM networks, LLMs with uncertainty-aware verification and interpretability-by-exemplar as intrinsic properties. We provide open-source software implementing these results.

To bridge the gaps between topology-aware Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) and inference-efficient Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLPs), GLNN proposes to distill knowledge from a well-trained teacher GNN into a student MLP. Despite their great progress, comparatively little work has been done to explore the reliability of different knowledge points (nodes) in GNNs, especially their roles played during distillation. In this paper, we first quantify the knowledge reliability in GNN by measuring the invariance of their information entropy to noise perturbations, from which we observe that different knowledge points (1) show different distillation speeds (temporally); (2) are differentially distributed in the graph (spatially). To achieve reliable distillation, we propose an effective approach, namely Knowledge-inspired Reliable Distillation (KRD), that models the probability of each node being an informative and reliable knowledge point, based on which we sample a set of additional reliable knowledge points as supervision for training student MLPs. Extensive experiments show that KRD improves over the vanilla MLPs by 12.62% and outperforms its corresponding teacher GNNs by 2.16% averaged over 7 datasets and 3 GNN architectures.

Diffusion large language models promise parallel token generation, yet inference remains bottlenecked by deciding which masked tokens can be safely committed together. Fast-dLLM addressed this with KV caching and confidence-guided parallel decoding, but its decoding theory uses a homogeneous high-confidence assumption that effectively reduces each candidate set to its weakest selected token. We argue that this leaves speed on the table because real decoding steps exhibit heterogeneous confidence profiles. We propose Fast-dLLM++, a training-free extension that introduces Fréchet profile decoding: selecting parallel commit sets from the full sorted confidence profile rather than a single worst-case confidence. The resulting rule is a heterogeneous-confidence generalization of Fast-dLLM's factor selector and it recovers the previous rule exactly in the equal-confidence case and adds a provable heterogeneity bonus when the selected tokens have uneven confidences. Fast-dLLM++ leaves the model, diffusion process, and cache implementation entirely unchanged, making it a drop-in replacement for existing Fast-dLLM decoding. Experiments on GSM8K, MATH, HumanEval, and MBPP with the LLaDA-8B model show that the theoretical improvement translates directly into empirical gains: profile-aware selection improves the accuracy--throughput frontier by exploiting safe parallelism that weakest-token rules miss, achieving up to 37\% higher throughput at comparable accuracy. Our code release is at https://github.com/Ringo-Star/FastdLLM_plusplus.

While multi-agent systems (MAS) have demonstrated superior performance over single-agent approaches in complex reasoning tasks, they often suffer from significant computational inefficiencies. Existing frameworks typically deploy large language models (LLMs) uniformly across all agent roles, failing to account for the varying cognitive demands of different reasoning stages. We address this inefficiency by proposing OI-MAS framework, a novel multi-agent framework that implements an adaptive model-selection policy across a heterogeneous pool of multi-scale LLMs. Specifically, OI-MAS introduces a state-dependent routing mechanism that dynamically selects agent roles and model scales throughout the reasoning process. In addition, we introduce a confidence-aware mechanism that selects appropriate model scales conditioned on task complexity, thus reducing unnecessary reliance on large-scale models. Experimental results show that OI-MAS consistently outperforms baseline multi-agent systems, improving accuracy by up to 12.88\% while reducing cost by up to 79.78\%.

Autoregressive generation in large language models (LLMs) conventionally decodes from the final layer, assuming that deeper representations yield more reliable next-token predictions. We revisit this assumption by revealing a recurring Guess-Refine-Perturb dynamic: early layers form coarse guesses, intermediate layers refine reasoning-relevant semantics, and final layers can perturb these refined predictions toward generic or alignment-preferred tokens. We introduce Confident Decoding, a training-free decoding strategy that dynamically selects the most reliable near-final layer through entropy-guided conservative backward search. We further provide a theoretical formulation of layer selection as an optimal stopping problem, showing that under bounded projection noise and dominant late-stage alignment perturbation, our search rule filters perturbation while bounding the loss relative to the oracle refinement layer. Experiments across dense and Mixture-of-Experts LLMs demonstrate consistent gains on challenging reasoning benchmarks, including GPQA-Diamond, Omni-MATH, and HLE, with zero memory overhead and less than 2% latency increase. These results suggest dynamically bypassing final-layer perturbations can unlock stronger reasoning behavior from aligned LLMs.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed and democratized on edge devices. To improve the efficiency of on-device deployment, small language models (SLMs) are often adopted due to their efficient decoding latency and reduced energy consumption. However, these SLMs often generate inaccurate responses when handling complex queries. One promising solution is uncertainty-based SLM routing, offloading high-stakes queries to stronger LLMs when resulting in low-confidence responses on SLM. This follows the principle of "If you lack confidence, seek stronger support" to enhance reliability. Relying on more powerful LLMs is yet effective but increases invocation costs. Therefore, striking a routing balance between efficiency and efficacy remains a critical challenge. Additionally, efficiently generalizing the routing strategy to new datasets remains under-explored. In this paper, we conduct a comprehensive investigation into benchmarking and generalization of uncertainty-driven routing strategies from SLMs to LLMs over 1500+ settings. Our findings highlight: First, uncertainty-correctness alignment in different uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods significantly impacts routing performance. Second, uncertainty distributions depend more on both the specific SLM and the chosen UQ method, rather than downstream data. Building on the insight, we propose a calibration data construction instruction pipeline and open-source a constructed hold-out set to enhance routing generalization on new downstream scenarios. The experimental results indicate calibration data effectively bootstraps routing performance without any new data.

Major cloud providers have employed advanced AI-based solutions like large language models to aid humans in identifying the root causes of cloud incidents. Despite the growing prevalence of AI-driven assistants in the root cause analysis process, their effectiveness in assisting on-call engineers is constrained by low accuracy due to the intrinsic difficulty of the task, a propensity for LLM-based approaches to hallucinate, and difficulties in distinguishing these well-disguised hallucinations. To address this challenge, we propose to perform confidence estimation for the predictions to help on-call engineers make decisions on whether to adopt the model prediction. Considering the black-box nature of many LLM-based root cause predictors, fine-tuning or temperature-scaling-based approaches are inapplicable. We therefore design an innovative confidence estimation framework based on prompting retrieval-augmented large language models (LLMs) that demand a minimal amount of information from the root cause predictor. This approach consists of two scoring phases: the LLM-based confidence estimator first evaluates its confidence in making judgments in the face of the current incident that reflects its ``grounded-ness" level in reference data, then rates the root cause prediction based on historical references. An optimization step combines these two scores for a final confidence assignment. We show that our method is able to produce calibrated confidence estimates for predicted root causes, validate the usefulness of retrieved historical data and the prompting strategy as well as the generalizability across different root cause prediction models. Our study takes an important move towards reliably and effectively embedding LLMs into cloud incident management systems.

Recent advances in Transformer-based large language models (LLMs) have led to significant performance improvements across many tasks. These gains come with a drastic increase in the models' size, potentially leading to slow and costly use at inference time. In practice, however, the series of generations made by LLMs is composed of varying levels of difficulty. While certain predictions truly benefit from the models' full capacity, other continuations are more trivial and can be solved with reduced compute. In this work, we introduce Confident Adaptive Language Modeling (CALM), a framework for dynamically allocating different amounts of compute per input and generation timestep. Early exit decoding involves several challenges that we address here, such as: (1) what confidence measure to use; (2) connecting sequence-level constraints to local per-token exit decisions; and (3) attending back to missing hidden representations due to early exits in previous tokens. Through theoretical analysis and empirical experiments on three diverse text generation tasks, we demonstrate the efficacy of our framework in reducing compute -- potential speedup of up to times 3 -- while provably maintaining high performance.

Confidence calibration is central to providing accurate and interpretable uncertainty estimates, especially under safety-critical scenarios. However, we find that existing calibration algorithms often overlook the issue of *proximity bias*, a phenomenon where models tend to be more overconfident in low proximity data (i.e., data lying in the sparse region of the data distribution) compared to high proximity samples, and thus suffer from inconsistent miscalibration across different proximity samples. We examine the problem over 504 pretrained ImageNet models and observe that: 1) Proximity bias exists across a wide variety of model architectures and sizes; 2) Transformer-based models are relatively more susceptible to proximity bias than CNN-based models; 3) Proximity bias persists even after performing popular calibration algorithms like temperature scaling; 4) Models tend to overfit more heavily on low proximity samples than on high proximity samples. Motivated by the empirical findings, we propose ProCal, a plug-and-play algorithm with a theoretical guarantee to adjust sample confidence based on proximity. To further quantify the effectiveness of calibration algorithms in mitigating proximity bias, we introduce proximity-informed expected calibration error (PIECE) with theoretical analysis. We show that ProCal is effective in addressing proximity bias and improving calibration on balanced, long-tail, and distribution-shift settings under four metrics over various model architectures. We believe our findings on proximity bias will guide the development of *fairer and better-calibrated* models, contributing to the broader pursuit of trustworthy AI. Our code is available at: https://github.com/MiaoXiong2320/ProximityBias-Calibration.

Long chains of thought (CoT) from current language models frequently contain logical gaps and unjustified leaps, limiting the gains from additional test-time compute. Improving reasoning quality directly would require process reward models, but the step-level annotations needed to train them are expensive and scarce. We find such a signal in how the model's confidence evolves during reasoning: premature confidence, the tendency to commit to an answer early and use the remaining tokens to rationalize it, strongly predicts flawed reasoning across tasks and model scales. We exploit this in progressive confidence shaping, a reinforcement learning objective that trains models to update their confidence as they reason rather than commit early -- rewarding gradual confidence growth and penalizing early commitment, with no external labels or reward models. The method improves accuracy and reasoning quality from 1.5B to 8B parameters across arithmetic (Countdown), math (DAPO, AIME), and science (ScienceQA): on Countdown, accuracy improves 3.2x (+42.0pp) and flawed reasoning drops 48pp; on AIME, Pass@64 improves 6.6pp. Consistent with this mechanism, the method also improves faithfulness: on a safety benchmark, our models more transparently surface misleading content in their reasoning traces rather than concealing it. Controlled experiments reveal that the problem and its remedy scale together: premature confidence grows with model size and task difficulty, and so do the gains from addressing it.

Large language models (LLMs) often produce confident but incorrect answers in settings where abstention would be safer. Standard evaluation protocols, however, require a response and do not account for how confidence should guide decisions under different risk preferences. To address this gap, we introduce the Behavioral Alignment Score (BAS), a decision-theoretic metric for evaluating how well LLM confidence supports abstention-aware decision making. BAS is derived from an explicit answer-or-abstain utility model and aggregates realized utility across a continuum of risk thresholds, yielding a measure of decision-level reliability that depends on both the magnitude and ordering of confidence. We show theoretically that truthful confidence estimates uniquely maximize expected BAS utility, linking calibration to decision-optimal behavior. BAS is related to proper scoring rules such as log loss, but differs structurally: log loss penalizes underconfidence and overconfidence symmetrically, whereas BAS imposes an asymmetric penalty that strongly prioritizes avoiding overconfident errors. Using BAS alongside widely used metrics such as ECE and AURC, we then construct a benchmark of self-reported confidence reliability across multiple LLMs and tasks. Our results reveal substantial variation in decision-useful confidence, and while larger and more accurate models tend to achieve higher BAS, even frontier models remain prone to severe overconfidence. Importantly, models with similar ECE or AURC can exhibit very different BAS due to highly overconfident errors, highlighting limitations of standard metrics. We further show that simple interventions, such as top-k confidence elicitation and post-hoc calibration, can meaningfully improve confidence reliability. Overall, our work provides both a principled metric and a comprehensive benchmark for evaluating LLM confidence reliability.

Self-training is a well-known approach for semi-supervised learning. It consists of iteratively assigning pseudo-labels to unlabeled data for which the model is confident and treating them as labeled examples. For neural networks, softmax prediction probabilities are often used as a confidence measure, although they are known to be overconfident, even for wrong predictions. This phenomenon is particularly intensified in the presence of sample selection bias, i.e., when data labeling is subject to some constraint. To address this issue, we propose a novel confidence measure, called T-similarity, built upon the prediction diversity of an ensemble of linear classifiers. We provide the theoretical analysis of our approach by studying stationary points and describing the relationship between the diversity of the individual members and their performance. We empirically demonstrate the benefit of our confidence measure for three different pseudo-labeling policies on classification datasets of various data modalities. The code is available at https://github.com/ambroiseodt/tsim.

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) augment deep networks with uncertainty quantification by Bayesian treatment of the network weights. However, such models face the challenge of Bayesian inference in a high-dimensional and usually over-parameterized space. This paper investigates a new line of Bayesian deep learning by performing Bayesian inference on network structure. Instead of building structure from scratch inefficiently, we draw inspirations from neural architecture search to represent the network structure. We then develop an efficient stochastic variational inference approach which unifies the learning of both network structure and weights. Empirically, our method exhibits competitive predictive performance while preserving the benefits of Bayesian principles across challenging scenarios. We also provide convincing experimental justification for our modeling choice.

Large language models (LLMs) can increase users' perceived trust by verbalizing confidence in their outputs. However, prior work has shown that LLMs are often overconfident, making their stated confidence unreliable since it does not consistently align with factual accuracy. To better understand the sources of this verbalized confidence, we introduce TracVC (Tracing Verbalized Confidence), a method that builds on information retrieval and influence estimation to trace generated confidence expressions back to the training data. We evaluate TracVC on OLMo and Llama models in a question answering setting, proposing a new metric, content groundness, which measures the extent to which an LLM grounds its confidence in content-related training examples (relevant to the question and answer) versus in generic examples of confidence verbalization. Our analysis reveals that OLMo2-13B is frequently influenced by confidence-related data that is lexically unrelated to the query, suggesting that it may mimic superficial linguistic expressions of certainty rather than rely on genuine content grounding. These findings point to a fundamental limitation in current training regimes: LLMs may learn how to sound confident without learning when confidence is justified. Our analysis provides a foundation for improving LLMs' trustworthiness in expressing more reliable confidence.

Graph generation aims to sample discrete node and edge attributes while satisfying coupled structural constraints. Diffusion models for graphs often adopt largely factorized forward-noising, and many flow-matching methods start from factorized reference noise and coordinate-wise interpolation, so node-edge coupling is not encoded by the generative geometry and must be recovered implicitly by the core network, which can be brittle after discrete decoding. Bayesian Flow Networks (BFNs) evolve distribution parameters and naturally support discrete generation. But classical BFNs typically rely on factorized beliefs and independent channels, which limit geometric evidence fusion. We propose Variational Bayesian Flow Network (VBFN), which performs a variational lifting to a tractable joint Gaussian variational belief family governed by structured precisions. Each Bayesian update reduces to solving a symmetric positive definite linear system, enabling coupled node and edge updates within a single fusion step. We construct sample-agnostic sparse precisions from a representation-induced dependency graph, thereby avoiding label leakage while enforcing node-edge consistency. On synthetic and molecular graph datasets, VBFN improves fidelity and diversity, and surpasses baseline methods.

Confidence calibration -- the problem of predicting probability estimates representative of the true correctness likelihood -- is important for classification models in many applications. We discover that modern neural networks, unlike those from a decade ago, are poorly calibrated. Through extensive experiments, we observe that depth, width, weight decay, and Batch Normalization are important factors influencing calibration. We evaluate the performance of various post-processing calibration methods on state-of-the-art architectures with image and document classification datasets. Our analysis and experiments not only offer insights into neural network learning, but also provide a simple and straightforward recipe for practical settings: on most datasets, temperature scaling -- a single-parameter variant of Platt Scaling -- is surprisingly effective at calibrating predictions.

Despite its outstanding performance in various graph tasks, vanilla Message Passing Neural Network (MPNN) usually fails in link prediction tasks, as it only uses representations of two individual target nodes and ignores the pairwise relation between them. To capture the pairwise relations, some models add manual features to the input graph and use the output of MPNN to produce pairwise representations. In contrast, others directly use manual features as pairwise representations. Though this simplification avoids applying a GNN to each link individually and thus improves scalability, these models still have much room for performance improvement due to the hand-crafted and unlearnable pairwise features. To upgrade performance while maintaining scalability, we propose Neural Common Neighbor (NCN), which uses learnable pairwise representations. To further boost NCN, we study the unobserved link problem. The incompleteness of the graph is ubiquitous and leads to distribution shifts between the training and test set, loss of common neighbor information, and performance degradation of models. Therefore, we propose two intervention methods: common neighbor completion and target link removal. Combining the two methods with NCN, we propose Neural Common Neighbor with Completion (NCNC). NCN and NCNC outperform recent strong baselines by large margins. NCNC achieves state-of-the-art performance in link prediction tasks. Our code is available at https://github.com/GraphPKU/NeuralCommonNeighbor.

Neural Radiance Fields (NeRF) exhibit remarkable performance for Novel View Synthesis (NVS) given a set of 2D images. However, NeRF training requires accurate camera pose for each input view, typically obtained by Structure-from-Motion (SfM) pipelines. Recent works have attempted to relax this constraint, but they still often rely on decent initial poses which they can refine. Here we aim at removing the requirement for pose initialization. We present Incremental CONfidence (ICON), an optimization procedure for training NeRFs from 2D video frames. ICON only assumes smooth camera motion to estimate initial guess for poses. Further, ICON introduces ``confidence": an adaptive measure of model quality used to dynamically reweight gradients. ICON relies on high-confidence poses to learn NeRF, and high-confidence 3D structure (as encoded by NeRF) to learn poses. We show that ICON, without prior pose initialization, achieves superior performance in both CO3D and HO3D versus methods which use SfM pose.

Large language models can detect their own errors and sometimes correct them without external feedback, but the underlying mechanisms remain unknown. We investigate this through the lens of second-order models of confidence from decision neuroscience. In a first-order system, confidence derives from the generation signal itself and is therefore maximal for the chosen response, precluding error detection. Second-order models posit a partially independent evaluative signal that can disagree with the committed response, providing the basis for error detection. Kumaran et al. (2026) showed that LLMs cache a confidence representation at a token immediately following the answer (i.e. post-answer newline: PANL) -- that causally drives verbal confidence and dissociates from log-probabilities. Here we test whether this PANL signal extends beyond confidence to support error detection and self-correction. Here we test whether this signal supports error detection and self-correction, deriving predictions from the second-order framework. Using a verify-then-correct paradigm, we show that: (i) verbal confidence predicts error detection far beyond token log-probabilities, ruling out a first-order account; (ii) PANL activations predict error detection beyond verbal confidence itself; and (iii) PANL predicts which errors the model can correct -- where all behavioural signals fail. Causal interventions confirm that PANL signals rescue error detection behavior when answer information is corrupted. All findings replicate across models (Gemma 3 27B and Qwen 2.5 7B) and tasks (TriviaQA and MNLI). These results reveal that LLMs naturally implement a second-order confidence architecture whose internal evaluative signal encodes not only whether an answer is likely wrong but whether the model has the knowledge to fix it.

In recent years, multimodal large language models (MLLMs) have made significant progress but continue to face inherent challenges in multimodal reasoning, which requires multi-level (e.g., perception, reasoning) and multi-granular (e.g., multi-step reasoning chain) advanced inferencing. Prior work on estimating model confidence tends to focus on the overall response for training and calibration, but fails to assess confidence in each reasoning step, leading to undesirable hallucination snowballing. In this work, we present MMBoundary, a novel framework that advances the knowledge boundary awareness of MLLMs through reasoning step confidence calibration. To achieve this, we propose to incorporate complementary textual and cross-modal self-rewarding signals to estimate confidence at each step of the MLLM reasoning process. In addition to supervised fine-tuning MLLM on this set of self-rewarded confidence estimation signal for initial confidence expression warm-up, we introduce a reinforcement learning stage with multiple reward functions for further aligning model knowledge and calibrating confidence at each reasoning step, enhancing reasoning chain self-correction. Empirical results show that MMBoundary significantly outperforms existing methods across diverse domain datasets and metrics, achieving an average of 7.5% reduction in multimodal confidence calibration errors and up to 8.3% improvement in task performance.

It is important for Large Language Models to be aware of the boundary of their knowledge, the mechanism of identifying known and unknown queries. This type of awareness can help models perform adaptive inference, such as invoking RAG, engaging in slow and deep thinking, or adopting the abstention mechanism, which is beneficial to the development of efficient and trustworthy AI. In this work, we propose a method to detect knowledge boundaries via Query-Level Uncertainty, which aims to determine if the model is able to address a given query without generating any tokens. To this end, we introduce a novel and training-free method called Internal Confidence, which leverages self-evaluations across layers and tokens. Empirical results on both factual QA and mathematical reasoning tasks demonstrate that our internal confidence can outperform several baselines. Furthermore, we showcase that our proposed method can be used for efficient RAG and model cascading, which is able to reduce inference costs while maintaining performance.

Diffusion-based large language models (Diffusion LLMs) have shown promise for non-autoregressive text generation with parallel decoding capabilities. However, the practical inference speed of open-sourced Diffusion LLMs often lags behind autoregressive models due to the lack of Key-Value (KV) Cache and quality degradation when decoding multiple tokens simultaneously. To bridge this gap, we introduce a novel block-wise approximate KV Cache mechanism tailored for bidirectional diffusion models, enabling cache reuse with negligible performance drop. Additionally, we identify the root cause of generation quality degradation in parallel decoding as the disruption of token dependencies under the conditional independence assumption. To address this, we propose a confidence-aware parallel decoding strategy that selectively decodes tokens exceeding a confidence threshold, mitigating dependency violations and maintaining generation quality. Experimental results on LLaDA and Dream models across multiple LLM benchmarks demonstrate up to 27.6times throughput improvement with minimal accuracy loss, closing the performance gap with autoregressive models and paving the way for practical deployment of Diffusion LLMs.

Large language models (LLMs) often produce answers with high certainty even when they are incorrect, making reliable confidence estimation essential for deployment in real-world scenarios. Verbalized confidence, where models explicitly state their confidence in natural language, provides a flexible and user-facing uncertainty signal that can be applied even when token logits are unavailable. However, existing verbalized-confidence methods often optimize answer generation and confidence generation jointly, which can cause confidence-alignment objectives to interfere with answer accuracy. In this work, we propose a decoupled and order-aware framework for verbalized confidence calibration. Our method first generates an answer and then estimates confidence conditioned on the fixed question--answer pair, allowing confidence optimization without directly perturbing the answer-generation process. To align confidence with correctness likelihood, we construct a sampling-based surrogate from multiple model completions and optimize rank-based reinforcement learning objectives that encourage responses with higher estimated correctness likelihood to receive higher verbalized confidence. Experiments on reasoning and knowledge-intensive benchmarks show that our method improves calibration and failure prediction performance while largely preserving answer accuracy. These results demonstrate that verbalized confidence can be more reliably aligned by decoupling confidence estimation from answer generation and optimizing the relative ordering of confidence across responses.

Real-world machine learning deployments are characterized by mismatches between the source (training) and target (test) distributions that may cause performance drops. In this work, we investigate methods for predicting the target domain accuracy using only labeled source data and unlabeled target data. We propose Average Thresholded Confidence (ATC), a practical method that learns a threshold on the model's confidence, predicting accuracy as the fraction of unlabeled examples for which model confidence exceeds that threshold. ATC outperforms previous methods across several model architectures, types of distribution shifts (e.g., due to synthetic corruptions, dataset reproduction, or novel subpopulations), and datasets (Wilds, ImageNet, Breeds, CIFAR, and MNIST). In our experiments, ATC estimates target performance 2-4times more accurately than prior methods. We also explore the theoretical foundations of the problem, proving that, in general, identifying the accuracy is just as hard as identifying the optimal predictor and thus, the efficacy of any method rests upon (perhaps unstated) assumptions on the nature of the shift. Finally, analyzing our method on some toy distributions, we provide insights concerning when it works. Code is available at https://github.com/saurabhgarg1996/ATC_code/.

Graph neural networks (GNNs) are effective models for representation learning on relational data. However, standard GNNs are limited in their expressive power, as they cannot distinguish graphs beyond the capability of the Weisfeiler-Leman graph isomorphism heuristic. In order to break this expressiveness barrier, GNNs have been enhanced with random node initialization (RNI), where the idea is to train and run the models with randomized initial node features. In this work, we analyze the expressive power of GNNs with RNI, and prove that these models are universal, a first such result for GNNs not relying on computationally demanding higher-order properties. This universality result holds even with partially randomized initial node features, and preserves the invariance properties of GNNs in expectation. We then empirically analyze the effect of RNI on GNNs, based on carefully constructed datasets. Our empirical findings support the superior performance of GNNs with RNI over standard GNNs.

Reliable application of machine learning is of primary importance to the practical deployment of deep learning methods. A fundamental challenge is that models are often unreliable due to overconfidence. In this paper, we estimate a model's reliability by measuring the agreement between its latent space, and the latent space of a foundation model. However, it is challenging to measure the agreement between two different latent spaces due to their incoherence, \eg, arbitrary rotations and different dimensionality. To overcome this incoherence issue, we design a neighborhood agreement measure between latent spaces and find that this agreement is surprisingly well-correlated with the reliability of a model's predictions. Further, we show that fusing neighborhood agreement into a model's predictive confidence in a post-hoc way significantly improves its reliability. Theoretical analysis and extensive experiments on failure detection across various datasets verify the effectiveness of our method on both in-distribution and out-of-distribution settings.

Confidence in LLMs is a useful indicator of model uncertainty and answer reliability. Existing work mainly focused on single-turn scenarios, while research on confidence in complex multi-turn interactions is limited. In this paper, we investigate whether LLM-based search agents have the ability to communicate their own confidence through verbalized confidence scores after long sequences of actions, a significantly more challenging task compared to outputting confidence in a single interaction. Experimenting on open-source agentic models, we first find that models exhibit much higher task accuracy at high confidence while having near-zero accuracy when confidence is low. Based on this observation, we propose Test-Time Scaling (TTS) methods that use confidence scores to determine answer quality, encourage the model to try again until reaching a satisfactory confidence level. Results show that our proposed methods significantly reduce token consumption while demonstrating competitive performance compared to baseline fixed budget TTS methods.

Message passing neural networks have shown a lot of success on graph-structured data. However, there are many instances where message passing can lead to over-smoothing or fail when neighboring nodes belong to different classes. In this work, we introduce a simple yet general framework for improving learning in message passing neural networks. Our approach essentially upsamples edges in the original graph by adding "slow nodes" at each edge that can mediate communication between a source and a target node. Our method only modifies the input graph, making it plug-and-play and easy to use with existing models. To understand the benefits of slowing down message passing, we provide theoretical and empirical analyses. We report results on several supervised and self-supervised benchmarks, and show improvements across the board, notably in heterophilic conditions where adjacent nodes are more likely to have different labels. Finally, we show how our approach can be used to generate augmentations for self-supervised learning, where slow nodes are randomly introduced into different edges in the graph to generate multi-scale views with variable path lengths.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown remarkable capabilities across various tasks, but their deployment in high-stake domains requires consistent performance across multiple interaction rounds. This paper introduces a comprehensive framework for evaluating and improving LLM response consistency, making three key contributions. First, we propose a novel Position-Weighted Consistency (PWC) score that captures both the importance of early-stage stability and recovery patterns in multi-turn interactions. Second, we present a carefully curated benchmark dataset spanning diverse domains and difficulty levels, specifically designed to evaluate LLM consistency under various challenging follow-up scenarios. Third, we introduce Confidence-Aware Response Generation (CARG), a framework that significantly improves response stability by incorporating model confidence signals into the generation process. Empirical results demonstrate that CARG significantly improves response stability without sacrificing accuracy, underscoring its potential for reliable LLM deployment in critical applications.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are often augmented with external information as contexts, but this external information can sometimes be inaccurate or even intentionally misleading. We argue that robust LLMs should demonstrate situated faithfulness, dynamically calibrating their trust in external information based on their confidence in the internal knowledge and the external context. To benchmark this capability, we evaluate LLMs across several QA datasets, including a newly created dataset called RedditQA featuring in-the-wild incorrect contexts sourced from Reddit posts. We show that when provided with both correct and incorrect contexts, both open-source and proprietary models tend to overly rely on external information, regardless of its factual accuracy. To enhance situated faithfulness, we propose two approaches: Self-Guided Confidence Reasoning (SCR) and Rule-Based Confidence Reasoning (RCR). SCR enables models to self-access the confidence of external information relative to their own internal knowledge to produce the most accurate answer. RCR, in contrast, extracts explicit confidence signals from the LLM and determines the final answer using predefined rules. Our results show that for LLMs with strong reasoning capabilities, such as GPT-4o and GPT-4o mini, SCR outperforms RCR, achieving improvements of up to 24.2% over a direct input augmentation baseline. Conversely, for a smaller model like Llama-3-8B, RCR outperforms SCR. Fine-tuning SCR with our proposed Confidence Reasoning Direct Preference Optimization (CR-DPO) method improves performance on both seen and unseen datasets, yielding an average improvement of 8.9% on Llama-3-8B. In addition to quantitative results, we offer insights into the relative strengths of SCR and RCR. Our findings highlight promising avenues for improving situated faithfulness in LLMs. The data and code are released.

Machine learning frameworks such as graph neural networks typically rely on a given, fixed graph to exploit relational inductive biases and thus effectively learn from network data. However, when said graphs are (partially) unobserved, noisy, or dynamic, the problem of inferring graph structure from data becomes relevant. In this paper, we postulate a graph convolutional relationship between the observed and latent graphs, and formulate the graph learning task as a network inverse (deconvolution) problem. In lieu of eigendecomposition-based spectral methods or iterative optimization solutions, we unroll and truncate proximal gradient iterations to arrive at a parameterized neural network architecture that we call a Graph Deconvolution Network (GDN). GDNs can learn a distribution of graphs in a supervised fashion, perform link prediction or edge-weight regression tasks by adapting the loss function, and they are inherently inductive. We corroborate GDN's superior graph recovery performance and its generalization to larger graphs using synthetic data in supervised settings. Furthermore, we demonstrate the robustness and representation power of GDNs on real world neuroimaging and social network datasets.

Developing autonomous agents that can interact with changing environments is an open challenge in machine learning. Robustness is particularly important in these settings as agents are often fit offline on expert demonstrations but deployed online where they must generalize to the closed feedback loop within the environment. In this work, we explore the application of recurrent neural networks to tasks of this nature and understand how a parameterization of their recurrent connectivity influences robustness in closed-loop settings. Specifically, we represent the recurrent connectivity as a function of rank and sparsity and show both theoretically and empirically that modulating these two variables has desirable effects on network dynamics. The proposed low-rank, sparse connectivity induces an interpretable prior on the network that proves to be most amenable for a class of models known as closed-form continuous-time neural networks (CfCs). We find that CfCs with fewer parameters can outperform their full-rank, fully-connected counterparts in the online setting under distribution shift. This yields memory-efficient and robust agents while opening a new perspective on how we can modulate network dynamics through connectivity.

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have demonstrated superior performance on various graph learning tasks, including recommendation, where they leverage user-item collaborative filtering signals in graphs. However, theoretical formulations of their capability are scarce, despite their empirical effectiveness in state-of-the-art recommender models. Recently, research has explored the expressiveness of GNNs in general, demonstrating that message passing GNNs are at most as powerful as the Weisfeiler-Lehman test, and that GNNs combined with random node initialization are universal. Nevertheless, the concept of "expressiveness" for GNNs remains vaguely defined. Most existing works adopt the graph isomorphism test as the metric of expressiveness, but this graph-level task may not effectively assess a model's ability in recommendation, where the objective is to distinguish nodes of different closeness. In this paper, we provide a comprehensive theoretical analysis of the expressiveness of GNNs in recommendation, considering three levels of expressiveness metrics: graph isomorphism (graph-level), node automorphism (node-level), and topological closeness (link-level). We propose the topological closeness metric to evaluate GNNs' ability to capture the structural distance between nodes, which aligns closely with the objective of recommendation. To validate the effectiveness of this new metric in evaluating recommendation performance, we introduce a learning-less GNN algorithm that is optimal on the new metric and can be optimal on the node-level metric with suitable modification. We conduct extensive experiments comparing the proposed algorithm against various types of state-of-the-art GNN models to explore the explainability of the new metric in the recommendation task. For reproducibility, implementation codes are available at https://github.com/HKUDS/GTE.

Graph neural networks (GNNs) have demonstrated superior performance in collaborative recommendation through their ability to conduct high-order representation smoothing, effectively capturing structural information within users' interaction patterns. However, existing GNN paradigms face significant challenges in scalability and robustness when handling large-scale, noisy, and real-world datasets. To address these challenges, we present LightGNN, a lightweight and distillation-based GNN pruning framework designed to substantially reduce model complexity while preserving essential collaboration modeling capabilities. Our LightGNN framework introduces a computationally efficient pruning module that adaptively identifies and removes redundant edges and embedding entries for model compression. The framework is guided by a resource-friendly hierarchical knowledge distillation objective, whose intermediate layer augments the observed graph to maintain performance, particularly in high-rate compression scenarios. Extensive experiments on public datasets demonstrate LightGNN's effectiveness, significantly improving both computational efficiency and recommendation accuracy. Notably, LightGNN achieves an 80% reduction in edge count and 90% reduction in embedding entries while maintaining performance comparable to more complex state-of-the-art baselines. The implementation of our LightGNN framework is available at the github repository: https://github.com/HKUDS/LightGNN.

Graph neural networks (GNNs) have shown great prowess in learning representations suitable for numerous graph-based machine learning tasks. When applied to semi-supervised node classification, GNNs are widely believed to work well due to the homophily assumption ("like attracts like"), and fail to generalize to heterophilous graphs where dissimilar nodes connect. Recent works design new architectures to overcome such heterophily-related limitations, citing poor baseline performance and new architecture improvements on a few heterophilous graph benchmark datasets as evidence for this notion. In our experiments, we empirically find that standard graph convolutional networks (GCNs) can actually achieve better performance than such carefully designed methods on some commonly used heterophilous graphs. This motivates us to reconsider whether homophily is truly necessary for good GNN performance. We find that this claim is not quite true, and in fact, GCNs can achieve strong performance on heterophilous graphs under certain conditions. Our work carefully characterizes these conditions, and provides supporting theoretical understanding and empirical observations. Finally, we examine existing heterophilous graphs benchmarks and reconcile how the GCN (under)performs on them based on this understanding.

The partial label challenge in Multi-Label Class-Incremental Learning (MLCIL) arises when only the new classes are labeled during training, while past and future labels remain unavailable. This issue leads to a proliferation of false-positive errors due to erroneously high confidence multi-label predictions, exacerbating catastrophic forgetting within the disjoint label space. In this paper, we aim to refine multi-label confidence calibration in MLCIL and propose a Confidence Self-Calibration (CSC) approach. Firstly, for label relationship calibration, we introduce a class-incremental graph convolutional network that bridges the isolated label spaces by constructing learnable, dynamically extended label relationship graph. Then, for confidence calibration, we present a max-entropy regularization for each multi-label increment, facilitating confidence self-calibration through the penalization of over-confident output distributions. Our approach attains new state-of-the-art results in MLCIL tasks on both MS-COCO and PASCAL VOC datasets, with the calibration of label confidences confirmed through our methodology.

Pretrained models have become standard in both vision and language, yet they typically do not provide reliable measures of confidence. Existing uncertainty estimation methods, such as deep ensembles and MC dropout, are often too computationally expensive to deploy in practice. Evidential Deep Learning (EDL) offers a more efficient alternative, but it requires models to be trained to output evidential quantities from the start, which is rarely true for pretrained networks. To enable EDL-style uncertainty estimation in pretrained models, we propose the Evidential Transformation Network (ETN), a lightweight post-hoc module that converts a pretrained predictor into an evidential model. ETN operates in logit space: it learns a sample-dependent affine transformation of the logits and interprets the transformed outputs as parameters of a Dirichlet distribution for uncertainty estimation. We evaluate ETN on image classification and large language model question-answering benchmarks under both in-distribution and out-of-distribution settings. ETN consistently improves uncertainty estimation over post-hoc baselines while preserving accuracy and adding only minimal computational overhead.

Accurately assessing model confidence is essential for deploying large language models (LLMs) in mission-critical factual domains. While retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) is widely adopted to improve grounding, confidence calibration in RAG settings remains poorly understood. We conduct a systematic study across four benchmarks, revealing that LLMs exhibit poor calibration performance due to noisy retrieved contexts. Specifically, contradictory or irrelevant evidence tends to inflate the model's false certainty, leading to severe overconfidence. To address this, we propose NAACL Rules (Noise-AwAre Confidence CaLibration Rules) to provide a principled foundation for resolving overconfidence under noise. We further design NAACL, a noise-aware calibration framework that synthesizes supervision from about 2K HotpotQA examples guided by these rules. By performing supervised fine-tuning (SFT) with this data, NAACL equips models with intrinsic noise awareness without relying on stronger teacher models. Empirical results show that NAACL yields substantial gains, improving ECE scores by 10.9% in-domain and 8.0% out-of-domain. By bridging the gap between retrieval noise and verbal calibration, NAACL paves the way for both accurate and epistemically reliable LLMs.

Neural networks for image recognition have evolved through extensive manual design from simple chain-like models to structures with multiple wiring paths. The success of ResNets and DenseNets is due in large part to their innovative wiring plans. Now, neural architecture search (NAS) studies are exploring the joint optimization of wiring and operation types, however, the space of possible wirings is constrained and still driven by manual design despite being searched. In this paper, we explore a more diverse set of connectivity patterns through the lens of randomly wired neural networks. To do this, we first define the concept of a stochastic network generator that encapsulates the entire network generation process. Encapsulation provides a unified view of NAS and randomly wired networks. Then, we use three classical random graph models to generate randomly wired graphs for networks. The results are surprising: several variants of these random generators yield network instances that have competitive accuracy on the ImageNet benchmark. These results suggest that new efforts focusing on designing better network generators may lead to new breakthroughs by exploring less constrained search spaces with more room for novel design.

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) are neural models that leverage the dependency structure in graphical data via message passing among the graph nodes. GNNs have emerged as pivotal architectures in analyzing graph-structured data, and their expansive application in sensitive domains requires a comprehensive understanding of their decision-making processes -- necessitating a framework for GNN explainability. An explanation function for GNNs takes a pre-trained GNN along with a graph as input, to produce a `sufficient statistic' subgraph with respect to the graph label. A main challenge in studying GNN explainability is to provide fidelity measures that evaluate the performance of these explanation functions. This paper studies this foundational challenge, spotlighting the inherent limitations of prevailing fidelity metrics, including Fid_+, Fid_-, and Fid_Delta. Specifically, a formal, information-theoretic definition of explainability is introduced and it is shown that existing metrics often fail to align with this definition across various statistical scenarios. The reason is due to potential distribution shifts when subgraphs are removed in computing these fidelity measures. Subsequently, a robust class of fidelity measures are introduced, and it is shown analytically that they are resilient to distribution shift issues and are applicable in a wide range of scenarios. Extensive empirical analysis on both synthetic and real datasets are provided to illustrate that the proposed metrics are more coherent with gold standard metrics. The source code is available at https://trustai4s-lab.github.io/fidelity.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown great potential in reasoning tasks through test-time scaling methods like self-consistency with majority voting. However, this approach often leads to diminishing returns in accuracy and high computational overhead. To address these challenges, we introduce Deep Think with Confidence (DeepConf), a simple yet powerful method that enhances both reasoning efficiency and performance at test time. DeepConf leverages model-internal confidence signals to dynamically filter out low-quality reasoning traces during or after generation. It requires no additional model training or hyperparameter tuning and can be seamlessly integrated into existing serving frameworks. We evaluate DeepConf across a variety of reasoning tasks and the latest open-source models, including Qwen 3 and GPT-OSS series. Notably, on challenging benchmarks such as AIME 2025, DeepConf@512 achieves up to 99.9% accuracy and reduces generated tokens by up to 84.7% compared to full parallel thinking.

Message passing graph neural networks (GNNs) would appear to be powerful tools to learn distributed algorithms via gradient descent, but generate catastrophically incorrect predictions when nodes update asynchronously during inference. This failure under asynchrony effectively excludes these architectures from many potential applications, such as learning local communication policies between resource-constrained agents in, e.g., robotic swarms or sensor networks. In this work we explore why this failure occurs in common GNN architectures, and identify "implicitly-defined" GNNs as a class of architectures which is provably robust to partially asynchronous "hogwild" inference, adapting convergence guarantees from work in asynchronous and distributed optimization, e.g., Bertsekas (1982); Niu et al. (2011). We then propose a novel implicitly-defined GNN architecture, which we call an energy GNN. We show that this architecture outperforms other GNNs from this class on a variety of synthetic tasks inspired by multi-agent systems, and achieves competitive performance on real-world datasets.

Accurate confidence estimation is essential for trustworthy large language models (LLMs) systems, as it empowers the user to determine when to trust outputs and enables reliable deployment in safety-critical applications. Current confidence estimation methods for LLMs neglect the relevance between responses and contextual information, a crucial factor in output quality evaluation, particularly in scenarios where background knowledge is provided. To bridge this gap, we propose CRUX (Context-aware entropy Reduction and Unified consistency eXamination), the first framework that integrates context faithfulness and consistency for confidence estimation via two novel metrics. First, contextual entropy reduction represents data uncertainty with the information gain through contrastive sampling with and without context. Second, unified consistency examination captures potential model uncertainty through the global consistency of the generated answers with and without context. Experiments across three benchmark datasets (CoQA, SQuAD, QuAC) and two domain-specific datasets (BioASQ, EduQG) demonstrate CRUX's effectiveness, achieving the highest AUROC than existing baselines.

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) are popular models for machine learning on graphs that typically follow the message-passing paradigm, whereby the feature of a node is updated recursively upon aggregating information over its neighbors. While exchanging messages over the input graph endows GNNs with a strong inductive bias, it can also make GNNs susceptible to over-squashing, thereby preventing them from capturing long-range interactions in the given graph. To rectify this issue, graph rewiring techniques have been proposed as a means of improving information flow by altering the graph connectivity. In this work, we identify three desiderata for graph-rewiring: (i) reduce over-squashing, (ii) respect the locality of the graph, and (iii) preserve the sparsity of the graph. We highlight fundamental trade-offs that occur between spatial and spectral rewiring techniques; while the former often satisfy (i) and (ii) but not (iii), the latter generally satisfy (i) and (iii) at the expense of (ii). We propose a novel rewiring framework that satisfies all of (i)--(iii) through a locality-aware sequence of rewiring operations. We then discuss a specific instance of such rewiring framework and validate its effectiveness on several real-world benchmarks, showing that it either matches or significantly outperforms existing rewiring approaches.

Visual Emotion Comprehension (VEC) aims to infer sentiment polarities or emotion categories from affective cues embedded in images. In recent years, Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) have established a popular paradigm in VEC, leveraging their generalizability to unify VEC tasks defined under diverse emotion taxonomies. While this paradigm achieves notable success, it typically formulates VEC as a deterministic task, requiring the model to output a single, definitive emotion label for each image. Such a formulation insufficiently accounts for the inherent subjectivity of emotion perception, overlooking alternative interpretations that may be equally plausible to different viewers. To address this limitation, we propose equipping MLLMs with capabilities to verbalize their confidence in emotion predictions. This additional signal provides users with an estimate of both the plausibility of alternative interpretations and the MLLMs' self-assessed competence, thereby enhancing reliability in practice. Building on this insight, we introduce a three-stage training framework that progressively endows with structured reasoning, teaches to verbalize confidence, and calibrates confidence expression, culminating in EmoCaliber, a confidence-aware MLLM for VEC. Through fair and comprehensive evaluations on the unified benchmark VECBench, EmoCaliber demonstrates overall superiority against existing methods in both emotion prediction and confidence estimation. These results validate the effectiveness of our approach and mark a feasible step toward more reliable VEC systems. Project page: https://github.com/wdqqdw/EmoCaliber.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive performance across various tasks, with different models excelling in distinct domains and specific abilities. Effectively combining the predictions of multiple LLMs is crucial for enhancing system robustness and performance. However, existing ensemble methods often rely on simple techniques like voting or logits ensembling, which overlook the varying confidence and reliability of models in different contexts. In this work, we propose LENS (Learning ENsemble confidence from Neural States), a novel approach that learns to estimate model confidence by analyzing internal representations. For each LLM, we train a lightweight linear confidence predictor that leverages layer-wise hidden states and normalized probabilities as inputs. This allows for more nuanced weighting of model predictions based on their context-dependent reliability. Our method does not require modifying the model parameters and requires negligible additional computation. Experimental results on multiple-choice and boolean question-answering tasks demonstrate that LENS outperforms traditional ensemble methods by a substantial margin. Our findings suggest that internal representations provide valuable signals for determining model confidence and can be effectively leveraged for ensemble learning.

Accurately predicting customer Lifetime Value (LTV) is crucial for companies to optimize their revenue strategies. Traditional deep learning models for LTV prediction are effective but typically provide only point estimates and fail to capture model uncertainty in modeling user behaviors. To address this limitation, we propose a novel approach that enhances the architecture of purely neural network models by incorporating the Monte Carlo Dropout (MCD) framework. We benchmarked the proposed method using data from one of the most downloaded mobile games in the world, and demonstrated a substantial improvement in predictive Top 5\% Mean Absolute Percentage Error compared to existing state-of-the-art methods. Additionally, our approach provides confidence metric as an extra dimension for performance evaluation across various neural network models, facilitating more informed business decisions.

Deep Neural Networks lead the state of the art of computer vision tasks. Despite this, Neural Networks are brittle in that small changes in the input can drastically affect their prediction outcome and confidence. Consequently and naturally, research in this area mainly focus on adversarial attacks and defenses. In this paper, we take an alternative stance and introduce the concept of Assistive Signals, which are optimized to improve a model's confidence score regardless if it's under attack or not. We analyse some interesting properties of these assistive perturbations and extend the idea to optimize assistive signals in the 3D space for real-life scenarios simulating different lighting conditions and viewing angles. Experimental evaluations show that the assistive signals generated by our optimization method increase the accuracy and confidence of deep models more than those generated by conventional methods that work in the 2D space. In addition, our Assistive Signals illustrate the intrinsic bias of ML models towards certain patterns in real-life objects. We discuss how we can exploit these insights to re-think, or avoid, some patterns that might contribute to, or degrade, the detectability of objects in the real-world.

Recent progress in large language models (LLMs) has enabled them to express their confidence in natural language, enhancing transparency and reliability. However, their confidence often exhibits overconfidence, the cause of which remains poorly understood. In this work, we conduct a detailed analysis of the dynamics underlying verbalized confidence and identify answer-independence as a key factor, defined as the model's failure to condition confidence on its own answer. To address this, we propose ADVICE (Answer-Dependent Verbalized Confidence Estimation), a fine-tuning framework that facilitates answer-grounded confidence estimation. Extensive experiments show that ADVICE substantially improves confidence calibration while preserving task performance. Further analyses confirm that ADVICE strengthens answer-groundedness, leading to more balanced and well-calibrated confidence distributions. Our findings shed light on the origin of overconfidence and establish a framework for more trustworthy confidence verbalization.

Node features and structural information of a graph are both crucial for semi-supervised node classification problems. A variety of graph neural network (GNN) based approaches have been proposed to tackle these problems, which typically determine output labels through feature aggregation. This can be problematic, as it implies conditional independence of output nodes given hidden representations, despite their direct connections in the graph. To learn the direct influence among output nodes in a graph, we propose the Explicit Pairwise Factorized Graph Neural Network (EPFGNN), which models the whole graph as a partially observed Markov Random Field. It contains explicit pairwise factors to model output-output relations and uses a GNN backbone to model input-output relations. To balance model complexity and expressivity, the pairwise factors have a shared component and a separate scaling coefficient for each edge. We apply the EM algorithm to train our model, and utilize a star-shaped piecewise likelihood for the tractable surrogate objective. We conduct experiments on various datasets, which shows that our model can effectively improve the performance for semi-supervised node classification on graphs.

In continual learning, many classifiers use softmax function to learn confidence. However, numerous studies have pointed out its inability to accurately determine confidence distributions for outliers, often referred to as epistemic uncertainty. This inherent limitation also curtails the accurate decisions for selecting what to forget and keep in previously trained confidence distributions over continual learning process. To address the issue, we revisit the effects of masking softmax function. While this method is both simple and prevalent in literature, its implication for retaining confidence distribution during continual learning, also known as stability, has been under-investigated. In this paper, we revisit the impact of softmax masking, and introduce a methodology to utilize its confidence preservation effects. In class- and task-incremental learning benchmarks with and without memory replay, our approach significantly increases stability while maintaining sufficiently large plasticity. In the end, our methodology shows better overall performance than state-of-the-art methods, particularly in the use with zero or small memory. This lays a simple and effective foundation of strongly stable replay-based continual learning.

Deep neural networks (DNNs) have been shown to perform well on exclusive, multi-class classification tasks. However, when different classes have similar visual features, it becomes challenging for human annotators to differentiate them. This scenario necessitates the use of composite class labels. In this paper, we propose a novel framework called Hyper-Evidential Neural Network (HENN) that explicitly models predictive uncertainty due to composite class labels in training data in the context of the belief theory called Subjective Logic (SL). By placing a grouped Dirichlet distribution on the class probabilities, we treat predictions of a neural network as parameters of hyper-subjective opinions and learn the network that collects both single and composite evidence leading to these hyper-opinions by a deterministic DNN from data. We introduce a new uncertainty type called vagueness originally designed for hyper-opinions in SL to quantify composite classification uncertainty for DNNs. Our results demonstrate that HENN outperforms its state-of-the-art counterparts based on four image datasets. The code and datasets are available at: https://github.com/Hugo101/HyperEvidentialNN.

Autonomous Graphical User Interface (GUI) agents rely on accurate GUI grounding, which maps language instructions to on-screen coordinates, to execute user commands. However, current models, whether trained via supervised fine-tuning (SFT) or reinforcement fine-tuning (RFT), lack self-awareness of their capability boundaries, leading to overconfidence and unreliable predictions. We first systematically evaluate probabilistic and verbalized confidence in general and GUI-specific models, revealing a misalignment between confidence and actual accuracy, which is particularly critical in dynamic GUI automation tasks, where single errors can cause task failure. To address this, we propose HyperClick, a novel framework that enhances reliable GUI grounding through uncertainty calibration. HyperClick introduces a dual reward mechanism, combining a binary reward for correct actions with a truncated Gaussian-based spatial confidence modeling, calibrated using the Brier score. This approach jointly optimizes grounding accuracy and confidence reliability, fostering introspective self-criticism. Extensive experiments on seven challenge benchmarks show that HyperClick achieves state-of-the-art performance while providing well-calibrated confidence. By enabling explicit confidence calibration and introspective self-criticism, HyperClick reduces overconfidence and supports more reliable GUI automation.

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have shown great promise in learning node embeddings for link prediction (LP). While numerous studies aim to improve the overall LP performance of GNNs, none have explored its varying performance across different nodes and its underlying reasons. To this end, we aim to demystify which nodes will perform better from the perspective of their local topology. Despite the widespread belief that low-degree nodes exhibit poorer LP performance, our empirical findings provide nuances to this viewpoint and prompt us to propose a better metric, Topological Concentration (TC), based on the intersection of the local subgraph of each node with the ones of its neighbors. We empirically demonstrate that TC has a higher correlation with LP performance than other node-level topological metrics like degree and subgraph density, offering a better way to identify low-performing nodes than using cold-start. With TC, we discover a novel topological distribution shift issue in which newly joined neighbors of a node tend to become less interactive with that node's existing neighbors, compromising the generalizability of node embeddings for LP at testing time. To make the computation of TC scalable, We further propose Approximated Topological Concentration (ATC) and theoretically/empirically justify its efficacy in approximating TC and reducing the computation complexity. Given the positive correlation between node TC and its LP performance, we explore the potential of boosting LP performance via enhancing TC by re-weighting edges in the message-passing and discuss its effectiveness with limitations. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/YuWVandy/Topo_LP_GNN.

Self-consistency decoding enhances LLMs' performance on reasoning tasks by sampling diverse reasoning paths and selecting the most frequent answer. However, it is computationally expensive, as sampling many of these (lengthy) paths is required to increase the chances that the correct answer emerges as the most frequent one. To address this, we introduce Confidence-Informed Self-Consistency (CISC). CISC performs a weighted majority vote based on confidence scores obtained directly from the model. By prioritizing high-confidence paths, it can identify the correct answer with a significantly smaller sample size. When tested on nine models and four datasets, CISC outperforms self-consistency in nearly all configurations, reducing the required number of reasoning paths by over 40% on average. In addition, we introduce the notion of within-question confidence evaluation, after showing that standard evaluation methods are poor predictors of success in distinguishing correct and incorrect answers to the same question. In fact, the most calibrated confidence method proved to be the least effective for CISC. Lastly, beyond these practical implications, our results and analyses show that LLMs can effectively judge the correctness of their own outputs, contributing to the ongoing debate on this topic.

In this paper, we present LiGNN, a deployed large-scale Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) Framework. We share our insight on developing and deployment of GNNs at large scale at LinkedIn. We present a set of algorithmic improvements to the quality of GNN representation learning including temporal graph architectures with long term losses, effective cold start solutions via graph densification, ID embeddings and multi-hop neighbor sampling. We explain how we built and sped up by 7x our large-scale training on LinkedIn graphs with adaptive sampling of neighbors, grouping and slicing of training data batches, specialized shared-memory queue and local gradient optimization. We summarize our deployment lessons and learnings gathered from A/B test experiments. The techniques presented in this work have contributed to an approximate relative improvements of 1% of Job application hearing back rate, 2% Ads CTR lift, 0.5% of Feed engaged daily active users, 0.2% session lift and 0.1% weekly active user lift from people recommendation. We believe that this work can provide practical solutions and insights for engineers who are interested in applying Graph neural networks at large scale.

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have demonstrated state-of-the-art performance in various graph representation learning tasks. Recently, studies revealed their vulnerability to adversarial attacks. In this work, we theoretically define the concept of expected robustness in the context of attributed graphs and relate it to the classical definition of adversarial robustness in the graph representation learning literature. Our definition allows us to derive an upper bound of the expected robustness of Graph Convolutional Networks (GCNs) and Graph Isomorphism Networks subject to node feature attacks. Building on these findings, we connect the expected robustness of GNNs to the orthonormality of their weight matrices and consequently propose an attack-independent, more robust variant of the GCN, called the Graph Convolutional Orthonormal Robust Networks (GCORNs). We further introduce a probabilistic method to estimate the expected robustness, which allows us to evaluate the effectiveness of GCORN on several real-world datasets. Experimental experiments showed that GCORN outperforms available defense methods. Our code is publicly available at: https://github.com/Sennadir/GCORN{https://github.com/Sennadir/GCORN}.

Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) mitigates hallucinations in Large Language Models (LLMs) by integrating external knowledge. However, conflicts between parametric knowledge and retrieved context pose challenges, particularly when retrieved information is unreliable or the model's internal knowledge is outdated. In such cases, LLMs struggle to determine whether to rely more on their own parameters or the conflicted context. To address this, we propose **CK-PLUG**, a plug-and-play method for controlling LLMs' reliance on parametric and contextual knowledge. We introduce a novel knowledge consistency metric, Confidence Gain, which detects knowledge conflicts by measuring entropy shifts in token probability distributions after context insertion. CK-PLUG then enables fine-grained control over knowledge preference by adjusting the probability distribution of tokens with negative confidence gain through a single tuning parameter. Experiments demonstrate CK-PLUG's ability to significantly regulate knowledge reliance in counterfactual RAG scenarios while maintaining generation fluency and knowledge accuracy. For instance, on Llama3-8B, memory recall (MR) of RAG response can be adjusted within a broad range (9.9%-71.9%), compared to the baseline of 42.1%. Moreover, CK-PLUG supports adaptive control based on the model's confidence in both internal and external knowledge, achieving consistent performance improvements across various general RAG tasks. Our code is available at: https://github.com/byronBBL/CK-PLUG{this https URL}.

Uncertainty quantification is essential for assessing the reliability and trustworthiness of modern AI systems. Among existing approaches, verbalized uncertainty, where models express their confidence through natural language, has emerged as a lightweight and interpretable solution in large language models (LLMs). However, its effectiveness in vision-language models (VLMs) remains insufficiently studied. In this work, we conduct a comprehensive evaluation of verbalized confidence in VLMs, spanning three model categories, four task domains, and three evaluation scenarios. Our results show that current VLMs often display notable miscalibration across diverse tasks and settings. Notably, visual reasoning models (i.e., thinking with images) consistently exhibit better calibration, suggesting that modality-specific reasoning is critical for reliable uncertainty estimation. To further address calibration challenges, we introduce Visual Confidence-Aware Prompting, a two-stage prompting strategy that improves confidence alignment in multimodal settings. Overall, our study highlights the inherent miscalibration in VLMs across modalities. More broadly, our findings underscore the fundamental importance of modality alignment and model faithfulness in advancing reliable multimodal systems.

Uncertainty estimation is essential for enhancing the reliability of Large Language Models (LLMs), particularly in high-stakes applications. Existing methods often overlook semantic dependencies, relying on token-level probability measures that fail to capture structural relationships within the generated text. We propose GENUINE: Graph ENhanced mUlti-level uncertaINty Estimation for Large Language Models, a structure-aware framework that leverages dependency parse trees and hierarchical graph pooling to refine uncertainty quantification. By incorporating supervised learning, GENUINE effectively models semantic and structural relationships, improving confidence assessments. Extensive experiments across NLP tasks show that GENUINE achieves up to 29% higher AUROC than semantic entropy-based approaches and reduces calibration errors by over 15%, demonstrating the effectiveness of graph-based uncertainty modeling. The code is available at https://github.com/ODYSSEYWT/GUQ.

Reward models can significantly enhance the reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs), but they typically require extensive curated data and costly training. To mitigate these challenges, training-free approaches such as LLM-as-a-Judge leverage the intrinsic reasoning abilities of LLMs to evaluate responses, achieving promising results. Recent works have also indicated that model confidence can serve effectively as a reward metric, distinguishing between chain-of-thought (CoT) and non-CoT paths. However, the concept of using confidence as a reward has not been comprehensively studied. In this work, we systematically investigate Confidence-as-a-Reward (CRew), a simple yet powerful training-free method that utilizes token-level confidence in the model's final answers as a proxy for reward, especially suitable for close-ended tasks. Through extensive experiments on mathematical reasoning tasks, we demonstrate that CRew outperforms existing training-free reward approaches on the MATH500 and RewardMATH benchmarks, and even surpasses most trained reward models. We further identify a strong correlation between CRew scores and the actual reasoning performance of the model. Additionally, we find that CRew can effectively filter high-quality training data. Building upon these insights, we propose CRew-DPO, a training strategy that constructs preference data from confidence scores combined with correctness signals. Finetuning with CRew-DPO further enhances the model's judging capabilities and consistently outperforms existing self-training methods.

For safety-related applications, it is crucial to produce trustworthy deep neural networks whose prediction is associated with confidence that can represent the likelihood of correctness for subsequent decision-making. Existing dense binary classification models are prone to being over-confident. To improve model calibration, we propose Adaptive Stochastic Label Perturbation (ASLP) which learns a unique label perturbation level for each training image. ASLP employs our proposed Self-Calibrating Binary Cross Entropy (SC-BCE) loss, which unifies label perturbation processes including stochastic approaches (like DisturbLabel), and label smoothing, to correct calibration while maintaining classification rates. ASLP follows Maximum Entropy Inference of classic statistical mechanics to maximise prediction entropy with respect to missing information. It performs this while: (1) preserving classification accuracy on known data as a conservative solution, or (2) specifically improves model calibration degree by minimising the gap between the prediction accuracy and expected confidence of the target training label. Extensive results demonstrate that ASLP can significantly improve calibration degrees of dense binary classification models on both in-distribution and out-of-distribution data. The code is available on https://github.com/Carlisle-Liu/ASLP.

It has been shown that a message passing neural networks (MPNNs), a popular family of neural networks for graph-structured data, are at most as expressive as the first-order Weisfeiler-Leman (1-WL) graph isomorphism test, which has motivated the development of more expressive architectures. In this work, we analyze if the limited expressiveness is actually a limiting factor for MPNNs and other WL-based models in standard graph datasets. Interestingly, we find that the expressiveness of WL is sufficient to identify almost all graphs in most datasets. Moreover, we find that the classification accuracy upper bounds are often close to 100\%. Furthermore, we find that simple WL-based neural networks and several MPNNs can be fitted to several datasets. In sum, we conclude that the performance of WL/MPNNs is not limited by their expressiveness in practice.

Diffusion Large Language Models (dLLMs) deliver strong long-context processing capability in a non-autoregressive decoding paradigm. However, the considerable computational cost of bidirectional full attention limits the inference efficiency. Although sparse attention is promising, existing methods remain ineffective. This stems from the need to estimate attention importance for tokens yet to be decoded, while the unmasked token positions are unknown during diffusion. In this paper, we present Focus-dLLM, a novel training-free attention sparsification framework tailored for accurate and efficient long-context dLLM inference. Based on the finding that token confidence strongly correlates across adjacent steps, we first design a past confidence-guided indicator to predict unmasked regions. Built upon this, we propose a sink-aware pruning strategy to accurately estimate and remove redundant attention computation, while preserving highly influential attention sinks. To further reduce overhead, this strategy reuses identified sink locations across layers, leveraging the observed cross-layer consistency. Experimental results show that our method offers more than 29times lossless speedup under 32K context length. The code is publicly available at: https://github.com/Longxmas/Focus-dLLM

This paper systematically diagnoses the training failure modes of Token-Choice sparse Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) on video Diffusion Transformers. Starting from a pretrained dense model of about 5 billion parameters, we convert it into an MoE architecture following three laws: routed experts exactly clone the original FFN weights, shared experts are initialized to zero for verification and then to extremely small non-zero noise for actual training, while only the gating networks start from random initialization. Experiments reveal a hierarchy of five failure modes: (1) linear routers suffer global soft saturation with complete expert homogenization; (2) MLP routers introduce selective deadlock, where roughly one-third of layers degenerate into a single-expert mode that cannot be prevented by increasing the auxiliary loss; (3) cross-attention routers exhibit preliminary self-recovery, yet about nine layers remain stubbornly deadlocked; (4) deadlocked layers display a U-shaped distribution, concentrated in shallow visual processing layers and deep semantic integration layers; (5) bfloat16 mixed precision causes tiny weight updates to be truncated to zero by hardware. Based on routing decision time series over 65 million tokens across 5,000 training steps, we propose the Functional Redundancy Hypothesis: deadlock is a rational waiting strategy before the shared expert matures within the gate-shared expert-routed expert triadic system. This hypothesis is supported by the theory of functional redundancy in systems biology. On the engineering side, we summarize the Three Laws of dense-to-MoE conversion and provide a complete solution for the bfloat16 precision trap. We calibrate the current capability boundary of the Token-Choice paradigm and outline a three-step evolutionary roadmap from visual unification to a world model.

Large language models (LLMs) often generate inaccurate or fabricated information and generally fail to indicate their confidence, which limits their broader applications. Previous work elicits confidence from LLMs by direct or self-consistency prompting, or constructing specific datasets for supervised finetuning. The prompting-based approaches have inferior performance, and the training-based approaches are limited to binary or inaccurate group-level confidence estimates. In this work, we present the advanced SaySelf, a training framework that teaches LLMs to express more accurate fine-grained confidence estimates. In addition, beyond the confidence scores, SaySelf initiates the process of directing LLMs to produce self-reflective rationales that clearly identify gaps in their parametric knowledge and explain their uncertainty. This is achieved by using an LLM to automatically summarize the uncertainties in specific knowledge via natural language. The summarization is based on the analysis of the inconsistency in multiple sampled reasoning chains, and the resulting data is utilized for supervised fine-tuning. Moreover, we utilize reinforcement learning with a meticulously crafted reward function to calibrate the confidence estimates, motivating LLMs to deliver accurate, high-confidence predictions and to penalize overconfidence in erroneous outputs. Experimental results in both in-distribution and out-of-distribution datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of SaySelf in reducing the confidence calibration error and maintaining the task performance. We show that the generated self-reflective rationales are reasonable and can further contribute to the calibration. The code is made public at https://github.com/xu1868/SaySelf.

Despite the success of convolutional neural networks (CNNs) in many academic benchmarks for computer vision tasks, their application in the real-world is still facing fundamental challenges. One of these open problems is the inherent lack of robustness, unveiled by the striking effectiveness of adversarial attacks. Current attack methods are able to manipulate the network's prediction by adding specific but small amounts of noise to the input. In turn, adversarial training (AT) aims to achieve robustness against such attacks and ideally a better model generalization ability by including adversarial samples in the trainingset. However, an in-depth analysis of the resulting robust models beyond adversarial robustness is still pending. In this paper, we empirically analyze a variety of adversarially trained models that achieve high robust accuracies when facing state-of-the-art attacks and we show that AT has an interesting side-effect: it leads to models that are significantly less overconfident with their decisions, even on clean data than non-robust models. Further, our analysis of robust models shows that not only AT but also the model's building blocks (like activation functions and pooling) have a strong influence on the models' prediction confidences. Data & Project website: https://github.com/GeJulia/robustness_confidences_evaluation

Vision-language models (VLMs) often underperform on evidence intensive tasks because decisive visual evidence are small, localized, and easy to overlook, leading to failures in evidence readout even when high-level reasoning is intact. Prior inference-time visual interventions can improve grounding without retraining, but they are largely open-loop and lack a mechanism to verify whether highlighted evidence is actually used. We study answer-span prediction entropy as a model-internal feedback signal and show that naive entropy minimization is ambiguous, since low entropy may arise from evidence-grounded confidence or shortcut collapse. To resolve this ambiguity, we introduce low-entropy anchors and an entropy-shaping objective that reduces answer uncertainty while preserving baseline high-confidence tokens. We instantiate this principle in SPOT-E, a plug-and-play test-time method that produces question-conditioned spotlights, optimized per instance via light-weight tuning based on Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO). Across all benchmarks and different VLM families, SPOT-E yields consistent gains and improved robustness under visual corruptions. Code is publicly available at: https://github.com/YinBo0927/SPOT-E