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Jul 7

Topological Neural Dynamics: A Neuron-wise Framework for Sequence Modeling

Existing sequence models, including RNNs, LSTMs, continuous-time networks, and Transformers, share a common structural principle: layer-wise dynamics, where all neurons in the same layer co-evolve through a shared parameterized operator, leaving individual neurons no freedom to evolve independently. Yet in many complex dynamical systems, rich global behavior emerges precisely from locally evolving units interacting through structured connectivity. Inspired by this principle, we introduce Topological Neural Dynamics (TND), a sequence modeling framework that shifts computation from layer-wise to neuron-wise dynamics. TND represents a neural system as a directed neuron graph, an interaction operator, and a local dynamics function, where each neuron evolves independently and collective computation emerges from interactions through the explicit graph topology. We instantiate TND as a discrete-time graph-coupled dynamical system and evaluate it as a case study on a behavior cloning task in single-player Pong. Compared with Vanilla RNN, Sparse RNN, LSTM, Closed-form continuous-time neural network (CfC), and Transformer baselines, TND achieves the best catch rate and a mean of 17.47 consecutive catches per round, more than three times that of the strongest baseline. These results suggest that shifting from layer-wise to neuron-wise dynamics provides an effective inductive bias for sequence modeling.

  • 2 authors
·
Jun 30

SafetyDrift: Predicting When AI Agents Cross the Line Before They Actually Do

When an LLM agent reads a confidential file, then writes a summary, then emails it externally, no single step is unsafe, but the sequence is a data leak. We call this safety drift: individually safe actions compounding into violations. Prior work has measured this problem; we predict it. SafetyDrift models agent safety trajectories as absorbing Markov chains, computing the probability that a trajectory will reach a violation within a given number of steps via closed form absorption analysis. A consequence of the monotonic state design is that every agent will eventually violate safety if left unsupervised (absorption probability 1.0 from all states), making the practical question not if but when, and motivating our focus on finite horizon prediction. Across 357 traces spanning 40 realistic tasks in four categories, we discover that "points of no return" are sharply task dependent: in communication tasks, agents that reach even a mild risk state have an 85% chance of violating safety within five steps, while in technical tasks the probability stays below 5% from any state. A lightweight monitor built on these models detects 94.7% of violations with 3.7 steps of advance warning at negligible computational cost, outperforming both keyword matching (44.7% detection, 55.9% false positive rate) and per step LLM judges (52.6% detection, 38.2% false positive rate) while running over 60,000x faster.

  • 2 authors
·
Mar 27

Resolving the measurement uncertainty paradox in ecological management

Ecological management and decision-making typically focus on uncertainty about the future, but surprisingly little is known about how to account for uncertainty of the present: that is, the realities of having only partial or imperfect measurements. Our primary paradigms for handling decisions under uncertainty -- the precautionary principle and optimal control -- have so far given contradictory results. This paradox is best illustrated in the example of fisheries management, where many ideas that guide thinking about ecological decision making were first developed. We find that simplistic optimal control approaches have repeatedly concluded that a manager should increase catch quotas when faced with greater uncertainty about the fish biomass. Current best practices take a more precautionary approach, decreasing catch quotas by a fixed amount to account for uncertainty. Using comparisons to both simulated and historical catch data, we find that neither approach is sufficient to avoid stock collapses under moderate observational uncertainty. Using partially observed Markov decision process (POMDP) methods, we demonstrate how this paradox arises from flaws in the standard theory, which contributes to over-exploitation of fisheries and increased probability of economic and ecological collapse. In contrast, we find POMDP-based management avoids such over-exploitation while also generating higher economic value. These results have significant implications for how we handle uncertainty in both fisheries and ecological management more generally.

  • 2 authors
·
Dec 28, 2018

Offline Planning and Online Learning under Recovering Rewards

Motivated by emerging applications such as live-streaming e-commerce, promotions and recommendations, we introduce and solve a general class of non-stationary multi-armed bandit problems that have the following two features: (i) the decision maker can pull and collect rewards from up to K,(ge 1) out of N different arms in each time period; (ii) the expected reward of an arm immediately drops after it is pulled, and then non-parametrically recovers as the arm's idle time increases. With the objective of maximizing the expected cumulative reward over T time periods, we design a class of ``Purely Periodic Policies'' that jointly set a period to pull each arm. For the proposed policies, we prove performance guarantees for both the offline problem and the online problems. For the offline problem when all model parameters are known, the proposed periodic policy obtains an approximation ratio that is at the order of 1-mathcal O(1/K), which is asymptotically optimal when K grows to infinity. For the online problem when the model parameters are unknown and need to be dynamically learned, we integrate the offline periodic policy with the upper confidence bound procedure to construct on online policy. The proposed online policy is proved to approximately have mathcal O(NT) regret against the offline benchmark. Our framework and policy design may shed light on broader offline planning and online learning applications with non-stationary and recovering rewards.

  • 3 authors
·
Jun 28, 2021