Daily Papers

Single-token typed-decision models answer a schema question by reading the logits of a few one-letter answer codes at a single position: they are fast and return a probability for every allowed answer, but they are trained with plain cross-entropy that ignores most of the structure in their training data. We study such a model whose data is curated as contrastive pairs---two contexts that differ in one edited fact that flips the answer---each carrying a machine-checked certificate that deleting the decisive sentence makes the fact unknown. We propose PACT, which turns this structure into four training terms that need no new annotation: a difference-in-differences margin over each pair that is invariant to any shared logit offset, a permutation-consistency term against answer-code position bias, an evidence-necessity term on certificate-verified ablated contexts, and an ordinal transport cost for rubric fields, plus a three-parameter contextual temperature. On a frozen 324-item holdout with three seeds, PACT matches the published recipe in accuracy (84.6% vs. 85.2%; McNemar p ge 0.50 at every seed) while giving the lowest position bias of all runs (answer flips under relabelling 9.8% vs. 13.8%) and the lowest ordinal error on rubric fields (MAE 0.232 vs. 0.311). Against a control with the same optimiser and schedule but cross-entropy only, PACT is significantly more accurate at two of three seeds, halves the seed-to-seed spread and lowers NLL by 26%. Seed-matched ablations and pre-specified falsification tests locate these gains precisely: no single term raises raw accuracy, and the method's value lies in robustness and stability rather than headline accuracy. Code, data splits, trained adapters, and all run records are available at https://github.com/BennyLinntu/PACT-Pairwise-Anchored-Calibrated-Tuning-for-Single-Token-Typed-Decisions.

Despite the popularity of multi-agent reinforcement learning (RL) in simulated and two-player applications, its success in messy real-world applications has been limited. A key challenge lies in its generalizability across problem variations, a common necessity for many real-world problems. Contextual reinforcement learning (CRL) formalizes learning policies that generalize across problem variations. However, the lack of standardized benchmarks for multi-agent CRL has hindered progress in the field. Such benchmarks are desired to be based on real-world applications to naturally capture the many open challenges of real-world problems that affect generalization. To bridge this gap, we propose IntersectionZoo, a comprehensive benchmark suite for multi-agent CRL through the real-world application of cooperative eco-driving in urban road networks. The task of cooperative eco-driving is to control a fleet of vehicles to reduce fleet-level vehicular emissions. By grounding IntersectionZoo in a real-world application, we naturally capture real-world problem characteristics, such as partial observability and multiple competing objectives. IntersectionZoo is built on data-informed simulations of 16,334 signalized intersections derived from 10 major US cities, modeled in an open-source industry-grade microscopic traffic simulator. By modeling factors affecting vehicular exhaust emissions (e.g., temperature, road conditions, travel demand), IntersectionZoo provides one million data-driven traffic scenarios. Using these traffic scenarios, we benchmark popular multi-agent RL and human-like driving algorithms and demonstrate that the popular multi-agent RL algorithms struggle to generalize in CRL settings.

We present Quasar-1, a novel architecture that introduces temperature-guided reasoning to large language models through the Token Temperature Mechanism (TTM) and Guided Sequence of Thought (GSoT). Our approach leverages the concept of hot and cold tokens, where hot tokens are prioritized for their contextual relevance, while cold tokens provide supplementary information. This dynamic modulation of token importance enables the model to achieve superior logical reasoning capabilities compared to traditional chain-of-thought approaches. Through rigorous mathematical analysis, we prove that our temperature-guided attention mechanism converges to optimal reasoning paths with exponential guarantees. Empirical results show significant improvements in reasoning accuracy and computational efficiency across a wide range of tasks, making advanced AI reasoning accessible to a broader range of applications.

The undergoing energy transition is causing behavioral changes in electricity use, e.g. with self-consumption of local generation, or flexibility services for demand control. To better understand these changes and the challenges they induce, accessing individual smart meter data is crucial. Yet this is personal data under the European GDPR. A widespread use of such data requires thus to create synthetic realistic and privacy-preserving samples. This paper introduces a new synthetic load curve dataset generated by conditional latent diffusion. We also provide the contracted power, time-of-use plan and local temperature used for generation. Fidelity, utility and privacy of the dataset are thoroughly evaluated, demonstrating its good quality and thereby supporting its interest for energy modeling applications.

The attention mechanism within the transformer architecture enables the model to weigh and combine tokens based on their relevance to the query. While self-attention has enjoyed major success, it notably treats all queries q in the same way by applying the mapping V^topsoftmax(Kq), where V,K are the value and key embeddings respectively. In this work, we argue that this uniform treatment hinders the ability to control contextual sparsity and relevance. As a solution, we introduce the Selective Self-Attention (SSA) layer that augments the softmax nonlinearity with a principled temperature scaling strategy. By controlling temperature, SSA adapts the contextual sparsity of the attention map to the query embedding and its position in the context window. Through theory and experiments, we demonstrate that this alleviates attention dilution, aids the optimization process, and enhances the model's ability to control softmax spikiness of individual queries. We also incorporate temperature scaling for value embeddings and show that it boosts the model's ability to suppress irrelevant/noisy tokens. Notably, SSA is a lightweight method which introduces less than 0.5% new parameters through a weight-sharing strategy and can be fine-tuned on existing LLMs. Extensive empirical evaluations demonstrate that SSA-equipped models achieve a noticeable and consistent accuracy improvement on language modeling benchmarks.

Large language models (LLMs) pose significant risks due to the potential for generating harmful content or users attempting to evade guardrails. Existing studies have developed LLM-based guard models designed to moderate the input and output of threat LLMs, ensuring adherence to safety policies by blocking content that violates these protocols upon deployment. However, limited attention has been given to the reliability and calibration of such guard models. In this work, we empirically conduct comprehensive investigations of confidence calibration for 9 existing LLM-based guard models on 12 benchmarks in both user input and model output classification. Our findings reveal that current LLM-based guard models tend to 1) produce overconfident predictions, 2) exhibit significant miscalibration when subjected to jailbreak attacks, and 3) demonstrate limited robustness to the outputs generated by different types of response models. Additionally, we assess the effectiveness of post-hoc calibration methods to mitigate miscalibration. We demonstrate the efficacy of temperature scaling and, for the first time, highlight the benefits of contextual calibration for confidence calibration of guard models, particularly in the absence of validation sets. Our analysis and experiments underscore the limitations of current LLM-based guard models and provide valuable insights for the future development of well-calibrated guard models toward more reliable content moderation. We also advocate for incorporating reliability evaluation of confidence calibration when releasing future LLM-based guard models.

Language models have made significant progress in generating coherent text and predicting next tokens based on input prompts. This study compares the next-token prediction performance of two well-known models: OpenAI's GPT-2 and Meta's Llama-2-7b-chat-hf on Theory of Mind (ToM) tasks. To evaluate their capabilities, we built a dataset from 10 short stories sourced from the Explore ToM Dataset. We enhanced these stories by programmatically inserting additional sentences (infills) using GPT-4, creating variations that introduce different levels of contextual complexity. This setup enables analysis of how increasing context affects model performance. We tested both models under four temperature settings (0.01, 0.5, 1.0, 2.0) and evaluated their ability to predict the next token across three reasoning levels. Zero-order reasoning involves tracking the state, either current (ground truth) or past (memory). First-order reasoning concerns understanding another's mental state (e.g., "Does Anne know the apple is salted?"). Second-order reasoning adds recursion (e.g., "Does Anne think that Charles knows the apple is salted?"). Our results show that adding more infill sentences slightly reduces prediction accuracy, as added context increases complexity and ambiguity. Llama-2 consistently outperforms GPT-2 in prediction accuracy, especially at lower temperatures, demonstrating greater confidence in selecting the most probable token. As reasoning complexity rises, model responses diverge more. Notably, GPT-2 and Llama-2 display greater variability in predictions during first- and second-order reasoning tasks. These findings illustrate how model architecture, temperature, and contextual complexity influence next-token prediction, contributing to a better understanding of the strengths and limitations of current language models.

We show that the three movements of Beethoven's "Moonlight Sonata" (Op. 27 No. 2) instantiate three distinct machine learning architectures -- not by analogy, but by structural correspondence. Through computational analysis of the score (entropy, Jensen-Shannon divergence, dissonance, hand distributional overlap, self-similarity matrices, temporal memory decay, and contextual pitch embeddings), we establish four counterintuitive findings: (1) perceived musical "temperature" is governed by throughput, not distributional width; (2) the lightest movement carries the highest dissonance; (3) the movements implement streaming, recurrent, and periodic positional encoding memory architectures; and (4) the same pitch class acquires different contextual identities across movements, analogous to contextual vs.static embeddings in NLP -- and unsupervised clustering recovers the tonal structure without music-theoretic input. We construct a reverse sonification (decoding analytical features back into MIDI) and quantify the chirality of the encode-decode cycle: what distributions preserve and sequential ordering destroys. Prompted by a listener's observation that the decoded piece sounds like "mirror isomers that can't be superimposed," the chirality measurement reveals reconstruction loss increasing monotonically with n-gram order. Bootstrap baselines and subsample checks confirm all movements carry sequential information above noise, though raw values are confounded by sample size. Cross-domain comparison shows natural language has higher chirality than music, reflecting stronger sequential constraints.

Bayesian predictive inference provides a principled framework for uncertainty quantification, data efficiency, and robust generalization. However, exact inference is often intractable, and scalable approximations may remain computationally expensive or require restrictive modeling assumptions that degrade predictive performance. Prior-Data Fitted and in-context models have recently emerged as an amortized alternative by learning to map datasets directly to predictive distributions, but existing approaches are tightly coupled to the support of the training prior and lack explicit mechanisms for adapting to new priors at test time, resulting in limited robustness under distribution shift. We introduce a multi-task in-context learning framework for amortized hierarchical Bayesian predictive inference that explicitly represents prior information as a prefix of in-context datasets. A transformer trained on sequences of prior and target tasks learns to adapt its predictions across families of priors. On a suite of evaluations with increasing difficulty, including out-of-meta-distribution priors and priors with high-dimensional latent structures, our method matches oracle Bayesian predictors while being orders of magnitude faster. We further demonstrate its practical relevance on a real-world spatiotemporal temperature prediction benchmark. Code is available at https://github.com/martianmartina/multi-task-bayesian-icl/.

Temperature sampling is a conventional approach to diversify large language model predictions. As temperature increases, the prediction becomes diverse but also vulnerable to hallucinations -- generating tokens that are sensible but not factual. One common approach to mitigate hallucinations is to provide source/grounding documents and the model is trained to produce predictions that bind to and are attributable to the provided source. It appears that there is a trade-off between diversity and attribution. To mitigate any such trade-off, we propose to relax the constraint of having a fixed temperature over decoding steps, and a mechanism to guide the dynamic temperature according to its relevance to the source through KL-divergence. Our experiments justifies the trade-off, and shows that our sampling algorithm outperforms the conventional top-k and top-p algorithms in conversational question-answering and summarization tasks.

Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have significantly impacted data science workflows, giving rise to specialized data science agents designed to automate analytical tasks. Despite rapid adoption, systematic benchmarks evaluating the efficacy and limitations of these agents remain scarce. In this paper, we introduce a comprehensive benchmark specifically crafted to reflect real-world user interactions with data science agents by observing usage of our commercial applications. We evaluate three LLMs: Claude-4.0-Sonnet, Gemini-2.5-Flash, and OpenAI-o4-Mini across three approaches: zero-shot with context engineering, multi-step with context engineering, and with SmolAgent. Our benchmark assesses performance across a diverse set of eight data science task categories, additionally exploring the sensitivity of models to common prompting issues, such as data leakage and slightly ambiguous instructions. We further investigate the influence of temperature parameters on overall and task-specific outcomes for each model and approach. Our findings reveal distinct performance disparities among the evaluated models and methodologies, highlighting critical factors that affect practical deployment. The benchmark dataset and evaluation framework introduced herein aim to provide a foundation for future research of more robust and effective data science agents.

The temperature parameter plays a profound role during training and/or inference with large foundation models (LFMs) such as large language models (LLMs) and CLIP models. Particularly, it adjusts the logits in the softmax function in LLMs, which is crucial for next token generation, and it scales the similarities in the contrastive loss for training CLIP models. A significant question remains: Is it viable to learn a neural network to predict a personalized temperature of any input data for enhancing LFMs"? In this paper, we present a principled framework for learning a small yet generalizable temperature prediction network (TempNet) to improve LFMs. Our solution is composed of a novel learning framework with a robust loss underpinned by constrained distributionally robust optimization (DRO), and a properly designed TempNet with theoretical inspiration. TempNet can be trained together with a large foundation model from scratch or learned separately given a pretrained foundation model. It is not only useful for predicting personalized temperature to promote the training of LFMs but also generalizable and transferable to new tasks. Our experiments on LLMs and CLIP models demonstrate that TempNet greatly improves the performance of existing solutions or models, e.g. Table 1. The code to reproduce the experimental results in this paper can be found at https://github.com/zhqiu/TempNet.

Contextual forecasting seeks to improve time series forecasting by incorporating forward-looking information, such as planned events, external conditions, and expert expectations. However, reliable evaluation remains difficult: existing benchmarks often have limited domain coverage, lack standardized history-future splits, or provide text that is not guaranteed to inform the future. We introduce GIFT-Eval-CTX, a benchmark that isolates whether forecasting methods can translate verified future information into accurate numerical trajectories. Built upon GIFT-Eval, GIFT-Eval-CTX contains 10,000 instances across 20 datasets. Each instance provides structured effects derived from the realized future: Macro effects describe horizon-wide behavior, while Micro effects specify localized changes. We construct these annotations with an agentic pipeline combining LLM-based discovery and deterministic code validation. We benchmark TSFMs, frontier LLMs, and tool-using agentic systems. The results show that structured effects reduce aggregate relative MASE by 40.7% for GPT-5.6 Sol and 29.6% for Claude Opus 4.8 relative to history-only prompting. The evaluated MoiraiAgent system achieves the best overall result. We further analyze the contributions of structured effects and agentic systems to performance, and identify opportunities for future research.

Context-aided forecasting (CAF) holds promise for integrating domain knowledge and forward-looking information, enabling AI systems to surpass traditional statistical methods. However, recent empirical studies reveal a puzzling gap: multimodal models often fail to outperform their unimodal counterparts. We hypothesize that this underperformance stems from poor context quality in existing datasets, as verification is challenging. To address these limitations, we introduce a semi-synthetic data augmentation method that generates contexts both descriptive of temporal dynamics and verifiably complementary to numerical histories. This approach enables massive-scale dataset creation, resulting in CAF-7M, a corpus of 7 million context-augmented time series windows, including a rigorously verified test set. We demonstrate that semi-synthetic pre-training transfers effectively to real-world evaluation, and show clear evidence of context utilization. Our results suggest that dataset quality, rather than architectural limitations, has been the primary bottleneck in context-aided forecasting.

Forecasting is a critical task in decision-making across numerous domains. While historical numerical data provide a start, they fail to convey the complete context for reliable and accurate predictions. Human forecasters frequently rely on additional information, such as background knowledge and constraints, which can efficiently be communicated through natural language. However, in spite of recent progress with LLM-based forecasters, their ability to effectively integrate this textual information remains an open question. To address this, we introduce "Context is Key" (CiK), a time-series forecasting benchmark that pairs numerical data with diverse types of carefully crafted textual context, requiring models to integrate both modalities; crucially, every task in CiK requires understanding textual context to be solved successfully. We evaluate a range of approaches, including statistical models, time series foundation models, and LLM-based forecasters, and propose a simple yet effective LLM prompting method that outperforms all other tested methods on our benchmark. Our experiments highlight the importance of incorporating contextual information, demonstrate surprising performance when using LLM-based forecasting models, and also reveal some of their critical shortcomings. This benchmark aims to advance multimodal forecasting by promoting models that are both accurate and accessible to decision-makers with varied technical expertise. The benchmark can be visualized at https://servicenow.github.io/context-is-key-forecasting/v0/.

Near-surface air temperature is a key physical property of the Earth's surface. Although weather stations offer continuous monitoring and satellites provide broad spatial coverage, no single data source offers seamless data in a spatiotemporal fashion. Here, we propose a data-driven, physics-guided deep learning approach to generate hourly air temperature data at 2 km resolution over the contiguous United States. The approach, called Amplifier Air-Transformer, first reconstructs GOES-16 surface temperature data obscured by clouds. It does so through a neural network encoded with the annual temperature cycle, incorporating a linear term to amplify ERA5 temperature values at finer scales and convolutional layers to capture spatiotemporal variations. Then, another neural network transforms the reconstructed surface temperature into air temperature by leveraging its latent relationship with key Earth surface properties. The approach is further enhanced with predictive uncertainty estimation through deep ensemble learning to improve reliability. The proposed approach is built and tested on 77.7 billion surface temperature pixels and 155 million air temperature records from weather stations across the contiguous United States (2018-2024), achieving hourly air temperature mapping accuracy of 1.93 C in station-based validation. The proposed approach streamlines surface temperature reconstruction and air temperature prediction, and it can be extended to other satellite sources for seamless air temperature monitoring at high spatiotemporal resolution. The generated data of this study can be downloaded at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15252812, and the project webpage can be found at https://skrisliu.com/HourlyAirTemp2kmUSA/.

Time series forecasting in real-world settings often depends not only on historical observations, but also on external context that must be actively discovered from noisy, heterogeneous information sources. Yet existing context-aided forecasting benchmarks typically assume that the supporting context is already provided, leaving open whether agents can identify it on their own. Therefore, we introduce Dr-CiK, a benchmark for evaluating whether agents can retrieve forecasting-relevant supporting context from a document corpus, filter out distractors, distill the retrieved context into forecast-useful evidence, and generate forecasts supported by that evidence. Through context ablations and evaluations of state-of-the-art deep research and forecasting methods paired together, we show that high-quality context substantially improves forecasting performance in Dr-CiK. However, most existing DR agents recover only a small fraction of the ground-truth supporting evidence (usually <5%), are frequently misled by distractors (>80% distractor citations), and can cause forecasters to perform worse with retrieved context than without context. Our results motivate research on foresight-driven agents that search for the right context to predict the future.

During language model decoding, it is known that using higher temperature sampling gives more creative responses, while lower temperatures are more factually accurate. However, such models are commonly applied to general instruction following, which involves both creative and fact seeking tasks, using a single fixed temperature across all examples and tokens. In this work, we introduce Adaptive Decoding, a layer added to the model to select the sampling temperature dynamically at inference time, at either the token or example level, in order to optimize performance. To learn its parameters we introduce Latent Preference Optimization (LPO) a general approach to train discrete latent variables such as choices of temperature. Our method outperforms all fixed decoding temperatures across a range of tasks that require different temperatures, including UltraFeedback, Creative Story Writing, and GSM8K.

In this paper, we aim to optimize a contrastive loss with individualized temperatures in a principled and systematic manner for self-supervised learning. The common practice of using a global temperature parameter tau ignores the fact that ``not all semantics are created equal", meaning that different anchor data may have different numbers of samples with similar semantics, especially when data exhibits long-tails. First, we propose a new robust contrastive loss inspired by distributionally robust optimization (DRO), providing us an intuition about the effect of tau and a mechanism for automatic temperature individualization. Then, we propose an efficient stochastic algorithm for optimizing the robust contrastive loss with a provable convergence guarantee without using large mini-batch sizes. Theoretical and experimental results show that our algorithm automatically learns a suitable tau for each sample. Specifically, samples with frequent semantics use large temperatures to keep local semantic structures, while samples with rare semantics use small temperatures to induce more separable features. Our method not only outperforms prior strong baselines (e.g., SimCLR, CLIP) on unimodal and bimodal datasets with larger improvements on imbalanced data but also is less sensitive to hyper-parameters. To our best knowledge, this is the first methodical approach to optimizing a contrastive loss with individualized temperatures.

This article describes location aware temperature profiles from six strawberry shipments across the continental United States. Three pallets were instrumented in each shipment with three vertically placed loggers to take a longitudinal and latitudinal snapshot of 9 strategically different locations (including the top, middle and bottom layers of the pallets placed in the back, middle and the front of the shipping container) for a combined 54 measurement points across shipments of varying lengths. The sensors were instrumented in the field, right at the point of harvest, recorded temperatures every every 5 to 10 minutes depending on the shipment, and uploaded their data periodically via cellular radios on each device. The data is a result of significant collaboration between stakeholders from farmers to distributors to retailers to academics, which can play an important role for researchers and educators in food engineering, cold-chain, machine learning, and data mining, as well as in other disciplines related to food and transportation.

In quantum physics there are well-known situations when measurements of the same property in different contexts (under different conditions) have the same probability distribution, but cannot be represented by one and the same random variable. Such systems of random variables are called contextual. More generally, true contextuality is observed when different contexts force measurements of the same property (in psychology, responses to the same question) to be more dissimilar random variables than warranted by the difference of their distributions. The difference in distributions is itself a form of context-dependence, but of another nature: it is attributable to direct causal influences exerted by contexts upon the random variables. The Contextuality-by-Default (CbD) theory allows one to separate true contextuality from direct influences in the overall context-dependence. The CbD analysis of numerous previous attempts to demonstrate contextuality in human judgments shows that all context-dependence in them can be accounted for by direct influences, with no true contextuality present. However, contextual systems in human behavior can be found. In this paper we present a series of crowdsourcing experiments that exhibit true contextuality in simple decision making.}{The design of these experiments is an elaboration of one introduced in the "Snow Queen" experiment (Decision 5, 193-204, 2018), where contextuality was for the first time demonstrated unequivocally.

We address the problem of uncertainty calibration and introduce a novel calibration method, Parametrized Temperature Scaling (PTS). Standard deep neural networks typically yield uncalibrated predictions, which can be transformed into calibrated confidence scores using post-hoc calibration methods. In this contribution, we demonstrate that the performance of accuracy-preserving state-of-the-art post-hoc calibrators is limited by their intrinsic expressive power. We generalize temperature scaling by computing prediction-specific temperatures, parameterized by a neural network. We show with extensive experiments that our novel accuracy-preserving approach consistently outperforms existing algorithms across a large number of model architectures, datasets and metrics.

This is the preface for the book by E. N. Dzhafarov, J. V. Kujala, and V. H. Cervantes, titled Contextuality in Random Variables: A Systematic Introduction. It is to be published by Cambridge University Press in 2026.

The sampling temperature, a critical hyperparameter in large language models (LLMs), modifies the logits before the softmax layer, thereby reshaping the distribution of output tokens. Recent studies have challenged the Stochastic Parrots analogy by demonstrating that LLMs are capable of understanding semantics rather than merely memorizing data and that randomness, modulated by sampling temperature, plays a crucial role in model inference. In this study, we systematically evaluated the impact of temperature in the range of 0 to 2 on data sets designed to assess six different capabilities, conducting statistical analyses on open source models of three different sizes: small (1B--4B), medium (6B--13B), and large (40B--80B). Our findings reveal distinct skill-specific effects of temperature on model performance, highlighting the complexity of optimal temperature selection in practical applications. To address this challenge, we propose a BERT-based temperature selector that takes advantage of these observed effects to identify the optimal temperature for a given prompt. We demonstrate that this approach can significantly improve the performance of small and medium models in the SuperGLUE datasets. Furthermore, our study extends to FP16 precision inference, revealing that temperature effects are consistent with those observed in 4-bit quantized models. By evaluating temperature effects up to 4.0 in three quantized models, we find that the Mutation Temperature -- the point at which significant performance changes occur -- increases with model size.

Financial decision-making is contextual: forecasting prices, valuing companies, and assessing event exposure weigh price history, accounting fundamentals, macroeconomic regime, and contemporaneous text. A benchmark over these four signals is hard to build because finance violates four assumptions of time-series evaluation: text must be gated by its publication date to prevent look-ahead, quarterly fundamentals are reported with a one- to ninety-day lag, filing text is partly redundant with the numerical statement fields it accompanies, and macroeconomic regimes leak across calendar splits. No public benchmark addresses all four signals jointly. MacroLens covers 4,416 U.S. small- and micro-cap equities over 2021-2026. Seven tasks share one point-in-time panel of prices, 46.8M XBRL accounting facts, 53 macroeconomic series, 295,860 SEC filings, and 215,882 news articles, plus a scenario layer of 1,130 macroeconomic events across 49 types automatically detected and rendered as natural language. Tasks span contextual forecasting, public and private valuation, statement generation from fundamentals and descriptions, scenario-conditioned returns, and real-estate valuation. We evaluate 19 methods across six families spanning naive heuristics through time-series foundation models, fine-tuned LLM-based time-series models, and zero-shot large language models (LLMs), plus a five-step feature-context ablation on two frontier LLMs and a gradient-boosted baseline. MacroLens is released at https://huggingface.co/datasets/DeepAuto-AI/MacroLens.

Large language models (LLMs) are applied to all sorts of creative tasks, and their outputs vary from beautiful, to peculiar, to pastiche, into plain plagiarism. The temperature parameter of an LLM regulates the amount of randomness, leading to more diverse outputs; therefore, it is often claimed to be the creativity parameter. Here, we investigate this claim using a narrative generation task with a predetermined fixed context, model and prompt. Specifically, we present an empirical analysis of the LLM output for different temperature values using four necessary conditions for creativity in narrative generation: novelty, typicality, cohesion, and coherence. We find that temperature is weakly correlated with novelty, and unsurprisingly, moderately correlated with incoherence, but there is no relationship with either cohesion or typicality. However, the influence of temperature on creativity is far more nuanced and weak than suggested by the "creativity parameter" claim; overall results suggest that the LLM generates slightly more novel outputs as temperatures get higher. Finally, we discuss ideas to allow more controlled LLM creativity, rather than relying on chance via changing the temperature parameter.

Humanity spends an increasing proportion of its time interacting online. Scholars are intensively investigating the societal drivers and resultant impacts of this collective shift in our allocation of time and attention. Yet, the external factors that regularly shape online behavior remain markedly understudied. Do environmental factors alter rates of online activity? Here we show that adverse meteorological conditions markedly increase social media use in the United States. To do so, we employ climate econometric methods alongside over three and a half billion social media posts from tens of millions of individuals from both Facebook and Twitter between 2009 and 2016. We find that more extreme temperatures and added precipitation each independently amplify social media activity. Weather that is adverse on both the temperature and precipitation dimensions produces markedly larger increases in social media activity. On average across both platforms, compared to the temperate weather baseline, days colder than -5°C with 1.5-2cm of precipitation elevate social media activity by 35%. This effect is nearly three times the typical increase in social media activity observed on New Year's Eve in New York City. We observe meteorological effects on social media participation at both the aggregate and individual level, even accounting for individual-specific, temporal, and location-specific potential confounds.

What is certain is that surface temperatures around the globe vary considerably, regardless of the time scales or underlying causes. Since 1850, we have observed an average increase in global surface temperature anomalies of 1.2^{circ} and a median increase of 0.7^{circ}: this overall difference masks significant regional differences. Nearly 60\% of the world's population now lives in urban areas, where vegetation cover has been significantly reduced, despite the paradoxical fact that vegetation plays an important role in regulating the thermal environment (eg through the shading provided by tree canopies). Continuous electrical and thermal measurements of trees in a Parisian grove (France) show and quantify that canopies are not the only protectors against heat waves; we must also consider the role of tree trunks. It is clear that these trunks probably regulate themselves, possibly by modulating the uptake of groundwater, whose geothermal stability is well established at a depth of just one meter. This quantitative observation should not be overlooked in the urban planning of our cities.

Contextual entrainment is the tendency of a model to let auxiliary context in its input pull its output, independently of whether that context is relevant, true, or even meaningful. Recently, it has been identified and given a mechanistic account in unimodal language models. Whether and how it manifests in vision-language models (VLMs) is, by contrast, largely unexamined, and the field lacks a purpose-built instrument with which to investigate it. We take the position that studying contextual entrainment in VLMs requires more than porting an existing text-only benchmark to the multimodal setting: it requires a taxonomically structured, dual-modality instrument whose conditions are constructed around the item at hand (the depicted image in the textual stream, the textual query in the visual stream). We argue that the move to VLMs is substantive rather than incremental. It makes entrainment a dual phenomenon, drivable independently by textual and by visual context, and it opens a veracity distinction (context that is false of the depicted scene yet possible in the world) that has no counterpart in the unimodal, world-knowledge-only formulation of prior work. To make this position concrete and actionable, we introduce ENTRAP-VL (ENTRainment Assessment Probe for Vision and Language), a manually curated dataset of 1,500 items across eight categories, organized by a taxonomy that spans two axes, i.e., the association of context with the item and its relationship to truth, and split into a textual-entrainment stream (eight context conditions) and a visual-entrainment stream (three context conditions). We do not claim to measure entrainment in any particular model; we provide the instrument, the taxonomy that motivates it, and the evaluation protocols it enables, so that the community can investigate the phenomenon rigorously. We will release the dataset and its documentation publicly.

The o1-Like LLMs are transforming AI by simulating human cognitive processes, but their performance in multilingual machine translation (MMT) remains underexplored. This study examines: (1) how o1-Like LLMs perform in MMT tasks and (2) what factors influence their translation quality. We evaluate multiple o1-Like LLMs and compare them with traditional models like ChatGPT and GPT-4o. Results show that o1-Like LLMs establish new multilingual translation benchmarks, with DeepSeek-R1 surpassing GPT-4o in contextless tasks. They demonstrate strengths in historical and cultural translation but exhibit a tendency for rambling issues in Chinese-centric outputs. Further analysis reveals three key insights: (1) High inference costs and slower processing speeds make complex translation tasks more resource-intensive. (2) Translation quality improves with model size, enhancing commonsense reasoning and cultural translation. (3) The temperature parameter significantly impacts output quality-lower temperatures yield more stable and accurate translations, while higher temperatures reduce coherence and precision.

Building models that generalize across physical systems without retraining remains a central challenge in computational science. Here we introduce In-Context Modeling (ICM), a retrain-free paradigm that infers physical relationships directly from observational fields. Rather than encoding system-specific behavior in fixed parameters, ICM assimilates measurements as physical context and performs inference through a single forward pass. Trained in a physics-informed, label-free manner using governing equations, a single model generalizes across unseen materials, geometries, and loading conditions. Demonstrated on hyperelasticity, ICM integrates with finite-element simulations and is validated using experimental full-field measurements. Moreover, performance improves with increasing data diversity and computational budget, exhibiting favorable scaling behavior analogous to foundation models. By recasting physical modeling as in-context inference, this work establishes a transferable paradigm for retrain-free scientific learning and a foundation for scalable modeling across computational science.

Understanding how households consume electricity in response to socioeconomic and climatic drivers is important for decision-makers designing energy policies in a changing climate and under geopolitical tensions. Consumers respond differently to thermal stress depending on income, consumption habits and the surrounding built environment, a nonlinear behaviour that most approaches oversimplify. In this study, households are treated as agents interacting with complex environments, and Inverse Reinforcement Learning is used to represent their consumption behaviour as model implied reward functions. Specifically, we observe how these reward functions change when households undergo socioeconomic and climatic shocks. The framework is tested on different clusters of electricity consumption profiles in Italy. Clusters' reward functions are retrieved and used to understand how cooling behaviour changes from summer 2021 to summer 2022 and 2023, before, during and after the energy crisis and a heatwave. We find that these shocks reshaped cooling behaviour heterogeneously across consumer groups, in directions conditioned by their prior habits and built environment. Across the 2021 to 2023 summers, we identify a spectrum of responses: transient adjustments that receded as the shocks eased, durable shifts persisting into 2023, and consumers exhibiting negligible change. At the intradaily scale, groups comparable in socioeconomic and environmental context but differing in their daily timing of consumption responded distinctly, identifying time of use as a separate dimension of behavioural heterogeneity. Energy policies and demand-response schemes should therefore account not only for who consumers are and where they live, but for when they consume and whether their response to a shock persists.

Large language models (LLMs) can make scientific software easier to use. However, a general model does not automatically know which measurements a particular sensor can support, which algorithms are implemented in the current software, or which conclusions are justified by a computed result. These distinctions are especially important for low-channel electroencephalography (EEG), where sparse spatial coverage and variable signal quality make plausible but unsupported interpretations easy to produce. We present NeuraDock Agent, an open-source architecture that separates a deterministic local EEG engine from a hardware-aware language layer. The numerical engine parses recordings, performs quality control, executes reviewed spectral workflows, and writes machine-readable artifacts. The LLM receives only a compact, allowlisted summary and a versioned context pack. The context describes the seven-channel hardware, reviewed workflows, result fields, implementation boundaries, scientific limits, and reference cases. Raw EEG and dense per-sample arrays remain local We evaluate the system at three levels. First, 12 recordings produced identical structured results over ten numerical repetitions, and a complete Rest/Task run produced identical result, report, and figure hashes over three repetitions. Second, request-capture and failure-injection experiments confirmed the tested data boundary and preservation of local artifacts under HTTP, malformed-output, and connection failures. Third, a boundary-awareness benchmark tested 36 ordinary and adversarial questions under four context ablations and two LLMs, yielding 288 outputs.These results support hardware- and implementation-aware grounding as a practical mechanism for calibrating what an EEG agent accepts, qualifies, or refuses; they do not establish clinical validity or a validated absolute cognitive-load index.

Real-world tasks often require models to learn from task-specific context rather than relying only on pre-trained knowledge. While recent work has highlighted this capability as context learning, existing evaluations mainly focus on textual contexts. In many practical settings, however, the context to be learned from is multimodal: scientific findings are conveyed through figures and tables, financial indicators are scattered across converted reports, and spatial decisions depend on maps, scenes, or web pages. We introduce CLBench-V, a benchmark for multimodal context learning that addresses the difficulty of localizing where context use breaks down by organizing tasks around three dimensions: context grounding, new information application, and new knowledge learning. CLBench-V combines converted public benchmarks with newly constructed datasets spanning domains such as science, finance, long-document understanding, spatial reasoning, and web-based visual question answering. To reduce the cost of constructing domain-specific context-learning tasks, we further use automated construction and filtering procedures for our newly built datasets. Across 3,443 instances and six recent multimodal models, the best overall score is only 0.2847, indicating that multimodal context learning remains far from saturated. Moreover, InternVL3.5-30B-A3B performs best on context grounding and new knowledge learning, while Qwen3.5-Plus performs best on new information application. We further analyze judge reliability, context length, image count, and representative failure cases. Code is available at https://github.com/IamLihua/CLBench-V.

Climate change communication in the mass media and other textual sources may affect and shape public perception. Extracting climate change information from these sources is an important task, e.g., for filtering content and e-discovery, sentiment analysis, automatic summarization, question-answering, and fact-checking. However, automating this process is a challenge, as climate change is a complex, fast-moving, and often ambiguous topic with scarce resources for popular text-based AI tasks. In this paper, we introduce ClimaText, a dataset for sentence-based climate change topic detection, which we make publicly available. We explore different approaches to identify the climate change topic in various text sources. We find that popular keyword-based models are not adequate for such a complex and evolving task. Context-based algorithms like BERT devlin2018bert can detect, in addition to many trivial cases, a variety of complex and implicit topic patterns. Nevertheless, our analysis reveals a great potential for improvement in several directions, such as, e.g., capturing the discussion on indirect effects of climate change. Hence, we hope this work can serve as a good starting point for further research on this topic.

Time series data is essential in various applications, including climate modeling, healthcare monitoring, and financial analytics. Understanding the contextual information associated with real-world time series data is often essential for accurate and reliable event predictions. In this paper, we introduce TimeCAP, a time-series processing framework that creatively employs Large Language Models (LLMs) as contextualizers of time series data, extending their typical usage as predictors. TimeCAP incorporates two independent LLM agents: one generates a textual summary capturing the context of the time series, while the other uses this enriched summary to make more informed predictions. In addition, TimeCAP employs a multi-modal encoder that synergizes with the LLM agents, enhancing predictive performance through mutual augmentation of inputs with in-context examples. Experimental results on real-world datasets demonstrate that TimeCAP outperforms state-of-the-art methods for time series event prediction, including those utilizing LLMs as predictors, achieving an average improvement of 28.75% in F1 score.

In-context learning (ICL) enables task adaptation at inference time by conditioning on demonstrations rather than updating model parameters. Although recent time-series foundation models incorporate contextual conditioning, retrieval, or example-based prompting, they typically rely on implicit positional structure or task-specific objectives rather than explicit instruction-conditioned input-output demonstrations. We introduce iAmTime, a time-series foundation model trained with instruction-conditioned amortized meta-learning to infer tasks directly from example demonstrations. iAmTime represents each episode as a structured prompt over historical context and future-known variables using specialized semantic tokens that attend to designated time-series regions, exchange information across demonstrations, and inject task information into the query representation. The model combines a Hierarchical Multi-Scope Transformer Encoder, which captures temporal and covariate dynamics while inferring latent task structure from demonstrated input-output mappings, with a Task-Conditioned Patch Decoder, which adapts decoding through expert-based routing. We train iAmTime on large-scale real and synthetic corpora using supervised and self-supervised instruction-conditioned tasks, including forecasting, imputation, reconstruction, classification, anomaly detection, and source de-mixing. Across diverse domains, frequencies, and horizons, iAmTime improves zero-shot adaptation over strong time-series foundation baselines on probabilistic and point forecasting benchmarks, while achieving competitive or superior performance on four non-forecasting tasks.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly characterised in recent evaluation work as having stable, model-level preference and value systems. However, accompanying robustness checks are limited to incidental prompt perturbations such as syntax variation and option reordering. This leaves open whether the measured properties survive when the surrounding task context changes, as it does in most real deployments. We test this directly across two established pairwise paradigms: ranking country preferences and eliciting utility judgements. In both, we make the deployment context -- the high-level task the model is performing while making concrete value-dependent choices -- our controlled variable, varied across framings such as writing a Reddit post or a news article. Across five LLMs and over 1.2M pairwise decisions, deployment context produces variation far larger than prompt paraphrasing and temperature controls. In country preference rankings over 15 countries, context induces widespread, statistically significant rank shifts; the aggregate Global North favouritism reported in prior work is itself context-dependent, with each model's bias shifting systematically across contexts. In utility elicitation over 50 outcomes, broad cross-category ordering is preserved, but fine-grained rankings within domains vary substantially, and cardinal exchange rates between outcomes (e.g. how many lives in one region equal one in another) shift by a factor of 2.47 at the median. Reported model-level preferences and utilities are therefore better understood as context-conditioned measurements than fixed model-level properties: safety guarantees obtained under one framing provide limited assurance in another.

Detecting and attributing temperature increases due to climate change is crucial for understanding global warming and guiding adaptation strategies. The complexity of distinguishing human-induced climate signals from natural variability has challenged traditional detection and attribution (D&A) approaches, which seek to identify specific "fingerprints" in climate response variables. Deep learning offers potential for discerning these complex patterns in expansive spatial datasets. However, lack of standard protocols has hindered consistent comparisons across studies. We introduce ClimDetect, a standardized dataset of over 816k daily climate snapshots, designed to enhance model accuracy in identifying climate change signals. ClimDetect integrates various input and target variables used in past research, ensuring comparability and consistency. We also explore the application of vision transformers (ViT) to climate data, a novel and modernizing approach in this context. Our open-access data and code serve as a benchmark for advancing climate science through improved model evaluations. ClimDetect is publicly accessible via Huggingface dataet respository at: https://huggingface.co/datasets/ClimDetect/ClimDetect.

Thermal comfort inside buildings is a well-studied field where human judgment for thermal comfort is collected and may be used for automatic thermal comfort estimation. However, indoor scenarios are rather static in terms of thermal state changes and, thus, cannot be applied to dynamic conditions, e.g., inside a vehicle. In this work, we present our findings of a gap between building and in-vehicle scenarios regarding thermal comfort estimation. We provide evidence by comparing deep neural classifiers for thermal comfort estimation for indoor and in-vehicle conditions. Further, we introduce a temporal dataset for indoor predictions incorporating 31 input signals and self-labeled user ratings by 18 subjects in a self-built climatic chamber. For in-vehicle scenarios, we acquired a second dataset featuring human judgments from 20 subjects in a BMW 3 Series. Our experimental results indicate superior performance for estimations from time series data over single vector input. Leveraging modern machine learning architectures enables us to recognize human thermal comfort states and estimate future states automatically. We provide details on training a recurrent network-based classifier and perform an initial performance benchmark of the proposed dataset. Ultimately, we compare our collected dataset to publicly available thermal comfort datasets.

Climate change is increasing the intensity and frequency of many extreme weather events, including heatwaves, which results in increased thermal discomfort and mortality rates. While global mitigation action is undoubtedly necessary, so is climate adaptation, e.g., through climate-sensitive urban planning. Among the most promising strategies is harnessing the benefits of urban trees in shading and cooling pedestrian-level environments. Our work investigates the challenge of optimal placement of such trees. Physical simulations can estimate the radiative and thermal impact of trees on human thermal comfort but induce high computational costs. This rules out optimization of tree placements over large areas and considering effects over longer time scales. Hence, we employ neural networks to simulate the point-wise mean radiant temperatures--a driving factor of outdoor human thermal comfort--across various time scales, spanning from daily variations to extended time scales of heatwave events and even decades. To optimize tree placements, we harness the innate local effect of trees within the iterated local search framework with tailored adaptations. We show the efficacy of our approach across a wide spectrum of study areas and time scales. We believe that our approach is a step towards empowering decision-makers, urban designers and planners to proactively and effectively assess the potential of urban trees to mitigate heat stress.

Contextual entrainment, which is a newly discovered phenomenon in large language models (LLMs), refers to the tendency of a model to assign higher probabilities to tokens that appear in its context. In this work, we extend this phenomenon from the token level to the sentence level by examining the per-token mean log-probability of a sentence instead of the probabilities of individual tokens. We investigate sentence-level contextual entrainment across 26 LLMs from seven families and two datasets, which cover both subjective and objective tasks. We find that sentence-level contextual entrainment exists. This means that the sentences in the prompt (even if they are counterfactual statements) can significantly increase their probability during model inference time. As the model size increases, contextual entrainment gradually decreases. We also find that contextual entrainment is controlled by 2% to 4% of the attention heads. Turning off these attention heads can effectively mitigate contextual entrainment without hurting the model's performance.

Replacing static word embeddings with contextualized word representations has yielded significant improvements on many NLP tasks. However, just how contextual are the contextualized representations produced by models such as ELMo and BERT? Are there infinitely many context-specific representations for each word, or are words essentially assigned one of a finite number of word-sense representations? For one, we find that the contextualized representations of all words are not isotropic in any layer of the contextualizing model. While representations of the same word in different contexts still have a greater cosine similarity than those of two different words, this self-similarity is much lower in upper layers. This suggests that upper layers of contextualizing models produce more context-specific representations, much like how upper layers of LSTMs produce more task-specific representations. In all layers of ELMo, BERT, and GPT-2, on average, less than 5% of the variance in a word's contextualized representations can be explained by a static embedding for that word, providing some justification for the success of contextualized representations.

Recent results in relativistic quantum information and quantum thermodynamics have independently shown that in the quantum regime, a system may fail to thermalise when subject to quantum-controlled application of the same, single thermalisation channel. For example, an accelerating system with fixed proper acceleration is known to thermalise to an acceleration-dependent temperature, known as the Unruh temperature. However, the same system in a superposition of spatially translated trajectories that share the same proper acceleration fails to thermalise. Here, we provide an explanation of these results using the framework of quantum field theory in relativistic noninertial reference frames. We show how a probe that accelerates in a superposition of spatial translations interacts with incommensurate sets of field modes. In special cases where the modes are orthogonal (for example, when the Rindler wedges are translated in a direction orthogonal to the plane of motion), thermalisation does indeed result, corroborating the here provided explanation. We then discuss how this description relates to an information-theoretic approach aimed at studying quantum aspects of temperature through quantum-controlled thermalisations. The present work draws a connection between research in quantum information, relativistic physics, and quantum thermodynamics, in particular showing that relativistic quantum effects can provide a natural realisation of quantum thermodynamical scenarios.

Recent advancements in AI have led to the development of large multimodal models (LMMs) capable of processing complex tasks involving joint reasoning over text and visual content in the image (e.g., navigating maps in public places). This paper introduces ConTextual, a novel benchmark comprising instructions designed explicitly to evaluate LMMs' ability to perform context-sensitive text-rich visual reasoning. ConTextual emphasizes diverse real-world scenarios (e.g., time-reading, navigation, shopping and more) demanding a deeper understanding of the interactions between textual and visual elements. Our findings reveal a significant performance gap of 30.8% between the best-performing LMM, GPT-4V(ision), and human capabilities using human evaluation indicating substantial room for improvement in context-sensitive text-rich visual reasoning. Notably, while GPT-4V excelled in abstract categories like meme and quote interpretation, its overall performance still lagged behind humans. In addition to human evaluations, we also employed automatic evaluation metrics using GPT-4, uncovering similar trends in performance disparities. We also perform a fine-grained evaluation across diverse visual contexts and provide qualitative analysis which provides a robust framework for future advancements in the LMM design. https://con-textual.github.io/

In this research study, we empirically investigate the effect of sampling temperature on the performance of Large Language Models (LLMs) on various problem-solving tasks. We created a multiple-choice question-and-answer (MCQA) exam by randomly sampling problems from standard LLM benchmarks. Then, we used nine popular LLMs with five prompt-engineering techniques to solve the MCQA problems while increasing the sampling temperature from 0.0 to 1.6. Despite anecdotal reports to the contrary, our empirical results indicate that changes in temperature from 0.0 to 1.0 do not have a statistically significant impact on LLM performance for problem-solving tasks. In addition, these results appear to generalize across LLMs, prompt-engineering techniques, and problem domains. All code, data, and supplemental materials are available on GitHub at: https://github.com/matthewrenze/jhu-llm-temperature

We present 360Zhinao models with 7B parameter size and context lengths spanning 4K, 32K and 360K, all available at https://github.com/Qihoo360/360zhinao. For rapid development in pretraining, we establish a stable and sensitive ablation environment to evaluate and compare experiment runs with minimal model size. Under such guidance, we perfect our data cleaning and composition strategies to pretrain 360Zhinao-7B-Base on 3.4T tokens. We also mainly emphasize data during alignment, where we strive to balance quantity and quality with filtering and reformatting. With tailored data, 360Zhinao-7B's context window is easily extended to 32K and 360K. RMs and RLHF are trained following SFT and credibly applied to specific tasks. All together these contributions lead to 360Zhinao-7B's competitive performance among models of similar size.

In the shipping industry, fuel consumption and emissions are critical factors due to their significant impact on economic efficiency and environmental sustainability. Accurate prediction of ship fuel consumption is essential for further optimization of maritime operations. However, heterogeneous methodologies and limited high-quality datasets hinder direct comparison of modeling approaches. This paper makes three key contributions: (1) we introduce and release a new dataset (https://huggingface.co/datasets/krohnedigital/FuelCast) comprising operational and environmental data from three ships; (2) we define a standardized benchmark covering tabular regression and time-series regression (3) we investigate the application of in-context learning for ship consumption modeling using the TabPFN foundation model - a first in this domain to our knowledge. Our results demonstrate strong performance across all evaluated models, supporting the feasibility of onboard, data-driven fuel prediction. Models incorporating environmental conditions consistently outperform simple polynomial baselines relying solely on vessel speed. TabPFN slightly outperforms other techniques, highlighting the potential of foundation models with in-context learning capabilities for tabular prediction. Furthermore, including temporal context improves accuracy.

The increasing frequency of extreme weather events due to global climate change urges accurate weather prediction. Recently, great advances have been made by the end-to-end methods, thanks to deep learning techniques, but they face limitations of representation inconsistency in multivariable integration and struggle to effectively capture the dependency between variables, which is required in complex weather systems. Treating different variables as distinct modalities and applying a two-stage training approach from multimodal models can partially alleviate this issue, but due to the inconformity in training tasks between the two stages, the results are often suboptimal. To address these challenges, we propose an implicit two-stage training method, configuring separate encoders and decoders for each variable. In detailed, in the first stage, the Translator is frozen while the Encoders and Decoders learn a shared latent space, in the second stage, the Encoders and Decoders are frozen, and the Translator captures inter-variable interactions for prediction. Besides, by introducing a self-attention mechanism for multivariable fusion in the latent space, the performance achieves further improvements. Empirically, extensive experiments show the state-of-the-art performance of our method. Specifically, it reduces the MSE for near-surface air temperature and relative humidity predictions by 28.82\% and 23.39\%, respectively. The source code is available at https://github.com/ShremG/Met2Net.

Long text generation, such as novel writing and discourse-level translation with extremely long contexts, presents significant challenges to current language models. Existing methods mainly focus on extending the model's context window through strategies like length extrapolation. However, these approaches demand substantial hardware resources during the training and/or inference phases. Our proposed method, Temp-Lora, introduces an alternative concept. Instead of relying on the KV cache to store all context information, we embeds this information directly into a temporary Lora module. In the process of long text generation, this module is progressively trained with text generated previously. This approach not only efficiently preserves contextual knowledge but also prevents any permanent alteration to the model's parameters given that the module is discarded post-generation. Extensive experiments on the PG19 language modeling benchmark and the GuoFeng discourse-level translation benchmark validate the effectiveness of Temp-Lora. Our results show that: 1) Temp-Lora substantially enhances generation quality for long text, as indicated by a 13.2% decrease in perplexity (PPL) on a subset of PG19, and a 29.3% decrease in PPL along with a 113.2% increase in BLEU score on a subset of GuoFeng, 2) Temp-Lora is compatible with and enhances most existing long text generation methods, and 3) Temp-Lora can greatly reduce computational costs by shortening the context window. For example, we can ensure a moderate improvement in generation quality (a decrease of 3.8% in PPL) while enabling a 51.5% memory usage reduction and a 60.0% decrease in latency for inference.

Heatwaves pose significant health risks, particularly due to prolonged exposure to high summer temperatures. Vulnerable groups, especially pedestrians and cyclists on sun-exposed sidewalks, motivate the development of a route planning method that incorporates somatosensory temperature effects through shade ratio consideration. This paper is the first to introduce a pipeline that utilizes segmentation foundation models to extract shaded areas from high-resolution satellite images. These areas are then integrated into a multi-layered road map, enabling users to customize routes based on a balance between distance and shade exposure, thereby enhancing comfort and health during outdoor activities. Specifically, we construct a graph-based representation of the road map, where links indicate connectivity and are updated with shade ratio data for dynamic route planning. This system is already implemented online, with a video demonstration, and will be specifically adapted to assist travelers during the 2024 Olympic Games in Paris.

Recent advancements in time series forecasting have explored augmenting models with text or vision modalities to improve accuracy. While text provides contextual understanding, it often lacks fine-grained temporal details. Conversely, vision captures intricate temporal patterns but lacks semantic context, limiting the complementary potential of these modalities. To address this, we propose \method, a novel multimodal framework that leverages pre-trained Vision-Language Models (VLMs) to bridge temporal, visual, and textual modalities for enhanced forecasting. Our framework comprises three key components: (1) a Retrieval-Augmented Learner, which extracts enriched temporal features through memory bank interactions; (2) a Vision-Augmented Learner, which encodes time series as informative images; and (3) a Text-Augmented Learner, which generates contextual textual descriptions. These components collaborate with frozen pre-trained VLMs to produce multimodal embeddings, which are then fused with temporal features for final prediction. Extensive experiments demonstrate that Time-VLM achieves superior performance, particularly in few-shot and zero-shot scenarios, thereby establishing a new direction for multimodal time series forecasting. Code is available at https://github.com/CityMind-Lab/ICML25-TimeVLM.

In response to climate change and urban heat island effects, enhancing human thermal comfort in cities is crucial for sustainable urban development. Traditional methods for investigating the urban thermal environment and corresponding human thermal comfort level are often resource intensive, inefficient, and limited in scope. To address these challenges, we (1) introduce a new concept named thermal affordance, which formalizes the integrated inherent capacity of a streetscape to influence human thermal comfort based on its visual and physical features; and (2) an efficient method to evaluate it (visual assessment of thermal affordance -- VATA), which combines street view imagery (SVI), online and in-field surveys, and statistical learning algorithms. VATA extracts five categories of image features from SVI data and establishes 19 visual-perceptual indicators for streetscape visual assessment. Using a multi-task neural network and elastic net regression, we model their chained relationship to predict and comprehend thermal affordance for Singapore. VATA predictions are validated with field-investigated OTC data, providing a cost-effective, scalable, and transferable method to assess the thermal comfort potential of urban streetscape. Moreover, we demonstrate its utility by generating a geospatially explicit mapping of thermal affordance, outlining a model update workflow for long-term urban-scale analysis, and implementing a two-stage prediction and inference approach (IF-VPI-VATA) to guide future streetscape improvements. This framework can inform streetscape design to support sustainable, liveable, and resilient urban environments.

The spatio-temporal relations of impacts of extreme events and their drivers in climate data are not fully understood and there is a need of machine learning approaches to identify such spatio-temporal relations from data. The task, however, is very challenging since there are time delays between extremes and their drivers, and the spatial response of such drivers is inhomogeneous. In this work, we propose a first approach and benchmarks to tackle this challenge. Our approach is trained end-to-end to predict spatio-temporally extremes and spatio-temporally drivers in the physical input variables jointly. By enforcing the network to predict extremes from spatio-temporal binary masks of identified drivers, the network successfully identifies drivers that are correlated with extremes. We evaluate our approach on three newly created synthetic benchmarks, where two of them are based on remote sensing or reanalysis climate data, and on two real-world reanalysis datasets. The source code and datasets are publicly available at the project page https://hakamshams.github.io/IDE.

Large language models (LLMs) can improve reasoning at inference time through test-time scaling (TTS), where multiple reasoning traces are generated and the best one is selected. Prior work shows that increasing the number of samples K steadily improves accuracy. In this paper, we demonstrate that this trend does not hold indefinitely: at large K, further scaling yields no gains, and certain hard questions remain unsolved regardless of the number of traces. Interestingly, we find that different sampling temperatures solve different subsets of problems, implying that single-temperature scaling explores only part of a model's potential. We therefore propose scaling along the temperature dimension, which enlarges the reasoning boundary of LLMs. Averaged over Qwen3 (0.6B, 1.7B, 4B, 8B) and five representative reasoning benchmarks (AIME 2024/2025, MATH500, LiveCodeBench, Hi-ToM), temperature scaling yields an additional 7.3 points over single-temperature TTS. Temperature scaling also enables base models to reach performance comparable to reinforcement learning (RL)-trained counterparts, without additional post-training. We further provide a comprehensive analysis of this phenomenon and design a multi-temperature voting method that reduces the overhead of temperature scaling. Overall, our findings suggest that TTS is more powerful than previously thought, and that temperature scaling offers a simple and effective way to unlock the latent potential of base models.

Providing Large Language Models with relevant contextual knowledge at inference time has been shown to greatly improve the quality of their generations. This is often achieved by prepending informative passages of text, or 'contexts', retrieved from external knowledge bases to their input. However, processing additional contexts online incurs significant computation costs that scale with their length. State Space Models (SSMs) offer a promising solution by allowing a database of contexts to be mapped onto fixed-dimensional states from which to start the generation. A key challenge arises when attempting to leverage information present across multiple contexts, since there is no straightforward way to condition generation on multiple independent states in existing SSMs. To address this, we leverage a simple mathematical relation derived from SSM dynamics to compose multiple states into one that efficiently approximates the effect of concatenating raw context tokens. Since the temporal ordering of contexts can often be uninformative, we enforce permutation-invariance by efficiently averaging states obtained via our composition algorithm across all possible context orderings. We evaluate our resulting method on WikiText and MSMARCO in both zero-shot and fine-tuned settings, and show that we can match the strongest performing baseline while enjoying on average 5.4x speedup.

WeatherBench 2 is an update to the global, medium-range (1-14 day) weather forecasting benchmark proposed by Rasp et al. (2020), designed with the aim to accelerate progress in data-driven weather modeling. WeatherBench 2 consists of an open-source evaluation framework, publicly available training, ground truth and baseline data as well as a continuously updated website with the latest metrics and state-of-the-art models: https://sites.research.google/weatherbench. This paper describes the design principles of the evaluation framework and presents results for current state-of-the-art physical and data-driven weather models. The metrics are based on established practices for evaluating weather forecasts at leading operational weather centers. We define a set of headline scores to provide an overview of model performance. In addition, we also discuss caveats in the current evaluation setup and challenges for the future of data-driven weather forecasting.

Forecasting weather and climate events is crucial for making appropriate measures to mitigate environmental hazards and minimize losses. However, existing environmental forecasting research focuses narrowly on predicting numerical meteorological variables (e.g., temperature), neglecting the translation of these variables into actionable textual narratives of events and their consequences. To bridge this gap, we proposed Weather and Climate Event Forecasting (WCEF), a new task that leverages numerical meteorological raster data and textual event data to predict weather and climate events. This task is challenging to accomplish due to difficulties in aligning multimodal data and the lack of supervised datasets. To address these challenges, we present CLLMate, the first multimodal dataset for WCEF, using 26,156 environmental news articles aligned with ERA5 reanalysis data. We systematically benchmark 23 existing MLLMs on CLLMate, including closed-source, open-source, and our fine-tuned models. Our experiments reveal the advantages and limitations of existing MLLMs and the value of CLLMate for the training and benchmarking of the WCEF task.

Wildfire monitoring requires timely, actionable situational awareness from airborne platforms, yet existing aerial visual question answering (VQA) benchmarks do not evaluate wildfire-specific multimodal reasoning grounded in thermal measurements. We introduce WildFireVQA, a large-scale VQA benchmark for aerial wildfire monitoring that integrates RGB imagery with radiometric thermal data. WildFireVQA contains 6,097 RGB-thermal samples, where each sample includes an RGB image, a color-mapped thermal visualization, and a radiometric thermal TIFF, and is paired with 34 questions, yielding a total of 207,298 multiple-choice questions spanning presence and detection, classification, distribution and segmentation, localization and direction, cross-modal reasoning, and flight planning for operational wildfire intelligence. To improve annotation reliability, we combine multimodal large language model (MLLM)-based answer generation with sensor-driven deterministic labeling, manual verification, and intra-frame and inter-frame consistency checks. We further establish a comprehensive evaluation protocol for representative MLLMs under RGB, Thermal, and retrieval-augmented settings using radiometric thermal statistics. Experiments show that across task categories, RGB remains the strongest modality for current models, while retrieved thermal context yields gains for stronger MLLMs, highlighting both the value of temperature-grounded reasoning and the limitations of existing MLLMs in safety-critical wildfire scenarios. The dataset and benchmark code are open-source at https://github.com/mobiiin/WildFire_VQA.

Reducing traffic accidents is an important public safety challenge. However, the majority of studies on traffic accident analysis and prediction have used small-scale datasets with limited coverage, which limits their impact and applicability; and existing large-scale datasets are either private, old, or do not include important contextual information such as environmental stimuli (weather, points-of-interest, etc.). In order to help the research community address these shortcomings we have - through a comprehensive process of data collection, integration, and augmentation - created a large-scale publicly available database of accident information named US-Accidents. US-Accidents currently contains data about 2.25 million instances of traffic accidents that took place within the contiguous United States, and over the last three years. Each accident record consists of a variety of intrinsic and contextual attributes such as location, time, natural language description, weather, period-of-day, and points-of-interest. We present this dataset in this paper, along with a wide range of insights gleaned from this dataset with respect to the spatiotemporal characteristics of accidents. The dataset is publicly available at https://smoosavi.org/datasets/us_accidents.

We introduce CLIMATE-FEVER, a new publicly available dataset for verification of climate change-related claims. By providing a dataset for the research community, we aim to facilitate and encourage work on improving algorithms for retrieving evidential support for climate-specific claims, addressing the underlying language understanding challenges, and ultimately help alleviate the impact of misinformation on climate change. We adapt the methodology of FEVER [1], the largest dataset of artificially designed claims, to real-life claims collected from the Internet. While during this process, we could rely on the expertise of renowned climate scientists, it turned out to be no easy task. We discuss the surprising, subtle complexity of modeling real-world climate-related claims within the fever framework, which we believe provides a valuable challenge for general natural language understanding. We hope that our work will mark the beginning of a new exciting long-term joint effort by the climate science and AI community.

In static monitoring cameras, useful contextual information can stretch far beyond the few seconds typical video understanding models might see: subjects may exhibit similar behavior over multiple days, and background objects remain static. Due to power and storage constraints, sampling frequencies are low, often no faster than one frame per second, and sometimes are irregular due to the use of a motion trigger. In order to perform well in this setting, models must be robust to irregular sampling rates. In this paper we propose a method that leverages temporal context from the unlabeled frames of a novel camera to improve performance at that camera. Specifically, we propose an attention-based approach that allows our model, Context R-CNN, to index into a long term memory bank constructed on a per-camera basis and aggregate contextual features from other frames to boost object detection performance on the current frame. We apply Context R-CNN to two settings: (1) species detection using camera traps, and (2) vehicle detection in traffic cameras, showing in both settings that Context R-CNN leads to performance gains over strong baselines. Moreover, we show that increasing the contextual time horizon leads to improved results. When applied to camera trap data from the Snapshot Serengeti dataset, Context R-CNN with context from up to a month of images outperforms a single-frame baseline by 17.9% mAP, and outperforms S3D (a 3d convolution based baseline) by 11.2% mAP.

In-context learning (ICL) involves reasoning from given contextual examples. As more modalities comes, this procedure is becoming more challenging as the interleaved input modalities convolutes the understanding process. This is exemplified by the observation that multimodal models often struggle to effectively extrapolate from contextual examples to perform ICL. To address these challenges, we introduce MultiModal In-conteXt Tuning (M^2IXT), a lightweight module to enhance the ICL capabilities of multimodal unified models. The proposed M^2IXT module perceives an expandable context window to incorporate various labeled examples of multiple modalities (e.g., text, image, and coordinates). It can be prepended to various multimodal unified models (e.g., OFA, Unival, LLaVA) of different architectures and trained via a mixed-tasks strategy to enable rapid few-shot adaption on multiple tasks and datasets. When tuned on as little as 50K multimodal data, M^2IXT can boost the few-shot ICL performance significantly (e.g., 18\% relative increase for OFA), and obtained state-of-the-art results across an array of tasks including visual question answering, image captioning, visual grounding, and visual entailment, while being considerably small in terms of model parameters (e.g., sim20times smaller than Flamingo or MMICL), highlighting the flexibility and effectiveness of M^2IXT as a multimodal in-context learner.

Humans and intelligent animals can internalize new information and accurately internalize their implications to perform downstream tasks. While large language models (LLMs) can achieve this through in-context learning (ICL) when the information (news) is explicitly given as context, adequately integrating the information into model weights via fine-tuning remains challenging. In this paper, we introduce New News, a dataset composed of hypothetical yet plausible news spanning multiple domains (mathematics, coding, discoveries, leaderboards, events), accompanied by downstream evaluation questions whose correct answers critically depend on understanding and internalizing the news. First, we demonstrate a substantial gap between naive fine-tuning and in-context learning (FT-ICL gap) on our dataset. To address this gap, we explore a suite of self-play data generation protocols -- paraphrases, implications, and Self-QA -- designed to distill the knowledge processed by the model with context into the weights of the model, which we term System-2 Fine-tuning (Sys2-FT). We systematically evaluate ICL and Sys2-FT performance across data domains and model scales with the Qwen 2.5 family of models. Our results demonstrate that the Self-QA protocol of Sys2-FT significantly improves models' in-weight learning of the news while preserving general capabilities. Furthermore, we discover the contextual shadowing effect, where training with the news in context followed by its rephrases or QAs catastrophically degrades learning of the news. Finally, we show preliminary evidence of an emerging scaling law of Sys2-FT.

Neural Ordinary Differential Equations (NODEs) often struggle to adapt to new dynamic behaviors caused by parameter changes in the underlying physical system, even when these dynamics are similar to previously observed behaviors. This problem becomes more challenging when the changing parameters are unobserved, meaning their value or influence cannot be directly measured when collecting data. To address this issue, we introduce Neural Context Flow (NCF), a robust and interpretable Meta-Learning framework that includes uncertainty estimation. NCF uses Taylor expansion to enable contextual self-modulation, allowing context vectors to influence dynamics from other domains while also modulating themselves. After establishing theoretical guarantees, we empirically test NCF and compare it to related adaptation methods. Our results show that NCF achieves state-of-the-art Out-of-Distribution performance on 5 out of 6 linear and non-linear benchmark problems. Through extensive experiments, we explore the flexible model architecture of NCF and the encoded representations within the learned context vectors. Our findings highlight the potential implications of NCF for foundational models in the physical sciences, offering a promising approach to improving the adaptability and generalization of NODEs in various scientific applications. Our code is openly available at https://github.com/ddrous/ncflow.

One of the key challenges in deploying RL to real-world applications is to adapt to variations of unknown environment contexts, such as changing terrains in robotic tasks and fluctuated bandwidth in congestion control. Existing works on adaptation to unknown environment contexts either assume the contexts are the same for the whole episode or assume the context variables are Markovian. However, in many real-world applications, the environment context usually stays stable for a stochastic period and then changes in an abrupt and unpredictable manner within an episode, resulting in a segment structure, which existing works fail to address. To leverage the segment structure of piecewise stable context in real-world applications, in this paper, we propose a \textbf{Segmented Context Belief Augmented Deep~(SeCBAD)} RL method. Our method can jointly infer the belief distribution over latent context with the posterior over segment length and perform more accurate belief context inference with observed data within the current context segment. The inferred belief context can be leveraged to augment the state, leading to a policy that can adapt to abrupt variations in context. We demonstrate empirically that SeCBAD can infer context segment length accurately and outperform existing methods on a toy grid world environment and Mujuco tasks with piecewise-stable context.

Modeling weather and climate is an essential endeavor to understand the near- and long-term impacts of climate change, as well as inform technology and policymaking for adaptation and mitigation efforts. In recent years, there has been a surging interest in applying data-driven methods based on machine learning for solving core problems such as weather forecasting and climate downscaling. Despite promising results, much of this progress has been impaired due to the lack of large-scale, open-source efforts for reproducibility, resulting in the use of inconsistent or underspecified datasets, training setups, and evaluations by both domain scientists and artificial intelligence researchers. We introduce ClimateLearn, an open-source PyTorch library that vastly simplifies the training and evaluation of machine learning models for data-driven climate science. ClimateLearn consists of holistic pipelines for dataset processing (e.g., ERA5, CMIP6, PRISM), implementation of state-of-the-art deep learning models (e.g., Transformers, ResNets), and quantitative and qualitative evaluation for standard weather and climate modeling tasks. We supplement these functionalities with extensive documentation, contribution guides, and quickstart tutorials to expand access and promote community growth. We have also performed comprehensive forecasting and downscaling experiments to showcase the capabilities and key features of our library. To our knowledge, ClimateLearn is the first large-scale, open-source effort for bridging research in weather and climate modeling with modern machine learning systems. Our library is available publicly at https://github.com/aditya-grover/climate-learn.

Most existing distillation methods ignore the flexible role of the temperature in the loss function and fix it as a hyper-parameter that can be decided by an inefficient grid search. In general, the temperature controls the discrepancy between two distributions and can faithfully determine the difficulty level of the distillation task. Keeping a constant temperature, i.e., a fixed level of task difficulty, is usually sub-optimal for a growing student during its progressive learning stages. In this paper, we propose a simple curriculum-based technique, termed Curriculum Temperature for Knowledge Distillation (CTKD), which controls the task difficulty level during the student's learning career through a dynamic and learnable temperature. Specifically, following an easy-to-hard curriculum, we gradually increase the distillation loss w.r.t. the temperature, leading to increased distillation difficulty in an adversarial manner. As an easy-to-use plug-in technique, CTKD can be seamlessly integrated into existing knowledge distillation frameworks and brings general improvements at a negligible additional computation cost. Extensive experiments on CIFAR-100, ImageNet-2012, and MS-COCO demonstrate the effectiveness of our method. Our code is available at https://github.com/zhengli97/CTKD.

In-context learning, the ability of large language models to perform tasks using only examples provided in the prompt, has recently been adapted for time series forecasting. This paradigm enables zero-shot prediction, where past values serve as context for forecasting future values, making powerful forecasting tools accessible to non-experts and increasing the performance when training data are scarce. Most existing zero-shot forecasting approaches rely on transformer architectures, which, despite their success in language, often fall short of expectations in time series forecasting, where recurrent models like LSTMs frequently have the edge. Conversely, while LSTMs are well-suited for time series modeling due to their state-tracking capabilities, they lack strong in-context learning abilities. We introduce TiRex that closes this gap by leveraging xLSTM, an enhanced LSTM with competitive in-context learning skills. Unlike transformers, state-space models, or parallelizable RNNs such as RWKV, TiRex retains state-tracking, a critical property for long-horizon forecasting. To further facilitate its state-tracking ability, we propose a training-time masking strategy called CPM. TiRex sets a new state of the art in zero-shot time series forecasting on the HuggingFace benchmarks GiftEval and Chronos-ZS, outperforming significantly larger models including TabPFN-TS (Prior Labs), Chronos Bolt (Amazon), TimesFM (Google), and Moirai (Salesforce) across both short- and long-term forecasts.

Large language model (LLM) providers boast big numbers for maximum context window sizes. To test the real world use of context windows, we 1) define a concept of maximum effective context window, 2) formulate a testing method of a context window's effectiveness over various sizes and problem types, and 3) create a standardized way to compare model efficacy for increasingly larger context window sizes to find the point of failure. We collected hundreds of thousands of data points across several models and found significant differences between reported Maximum Context Window (MCW) size and Maximum Effective Context Window (MECW) size. Our findings show that the MECW is, not only, drastically different from the MCW but also shifts based on the problem type. A few top of the line models in our test group failed with as little as 100 tokens in context; most had severe degradation in accuracy by 1000 tokens in context. All models fell far short of their Maximum Context Window by as much as 99 percent. Our data reveals the Maximum Effective Context Window shifts based on the type of problem provided, offering clear and actionable insights into how to improve model accuracy and decrease model hallucination rates.

Cross-modal retrieval (CMR) has been extensively applied in various domains, such as multimedia search engines and recommendation systems. Most existing CMR methods focus on image-to-text retrieval, whereas audio-to-text retrieval, a less explored domain, has posed a great challenge due to the difficulty to uncover discriminative features from audio clips and texts. Existing studies are restricted in the following two ways: 1) Most researchers utilize contrastive learning to construct a common subspace where similarities among data can be measured. However, they considers only cross-modal transformation, neglecting the intra-modal separability. Besides, the temperature parameter is not adaptively adjusted along with semantic guidance, which degrades the performance. 2) These methods do not take latent representation reconstruction into account, which is essential for semantic alignment. This paper introduces a novel audio-text oriented CMR approach, termed Contrastive Latent Space Reconstruction Learning (CLSR). CLSR improves contrastive representation learning by taking intra-modal separability into account and adopting an adaptive temperature control strategy. Moreover, the latent representation reconstruction modules are embedded into the CMR framework, which improves modal interaction. Experiments in comparison with some state-of-the-art methods on two audio-text datasets have validated the superiority of CLSR.

Language model users often issue queries that lack specification, where the context under which a query was issued -- such as the user's identity, the query's intent, and the criteria for a response to be useful -- is not explicit. For instance, a good response to a subjective query like "What book should I read next?" would depend on the user's preferences, and a good response to an open-ended query like "How do antibiotics work against bacteria?" would depend on the user's expertise. This makes evaluation of responses to such queries an ill-posed task, as evaluators may make arbitrary judgments about the response quality. To remedy this, we present contextualized evaluations, a protocol that synthetically constructs context surrounding an underspecified query and provides it during evaluation. We find that the presence of context can 1) alter conclusions drawn from evaluation, even flipping win rates between model pairs, 2) nudge evaluators to make fewer judgments based on surface-level criteria, like style, and 3) provide new insights about model behavior across diverse contexts. Specifically, our procedure uncovers an implicit bias towards WEIRD contexts in models' "default" responses and we find that models are not equally sensitive to following different contexts, even when they are provided in prompts.

Food choice is a complex phenomenon shaped by factors such as taste, ambience, culture or weather. In this paper, we explore food-related tweeting in different weather conditions. We inspect a Latvian food tweet dataset spanning the past decade in conjunction with a weather observation dataset consisting of average temperature, precipitation, and other phenomena. We find which weather conditions lead to specific food information sharing; automatically classify tweet sentiment and discuss how it changes depending on the weather. This research contributes to the growing area of large-scale social network data understanding of food consumers' choices and perceptions.

Weather forecasting offers an ideal testbed for artificial intelligence (AI) to learn complex, multi-scale physical systems. Traditional numerical weather prediction remains computationally costly for frequent regional updates, as high-resolution nests require intensive boundary coupling. We introduce Multi-Resolution Graph Neural Forecasting (MR-GNF), a lightweight, physics-aware model that performs short-term regional forecasts directly on an ellipsoidal, multi-scale graph of the Earth. The framework couples a 0.25° region of interest with a 0.5° context belt and 1.0° outer domain, enabling continuous cross-scale message passing without explicit nested boundaries. Its axial graph-attention network alternates vertical self-attention across pressure levels with horizontal graph attention across surface nodes, capturing implicit 3-D structure in just 1.6 M parameters. Trained on 40 years of ERA5 reanalysis (1980-2024), MR-GNF delivers stable +6 h to +24 h forecasts for near-surface temperature, wind, and precipitation over the UK-Ireland sector. Despite a total compute cost below 80 GPU-hours on a single RTX 6000 Ada, the model matches or exceeds heavier regional AI systems while preserving physical consistency across scales. These results demonstrate that graph-based neural operators can achieve trustworthy, high-resolution weather prediction at a fraction of NWP cost, opening a practical path toward AI-driven early-warning and renewable-energy forecasting systems. Project page and code: https://github.com/AndriiShchur/MR-GNF

The rapid advancement of Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) has extended CLIP-based frameworks to produce powerful, universal embeddings for retrieval tasks. However, existing methods primarily focus on natural images, offering limited support for other crucial visual modalities such as videos and visual documents. To bridge this gap, we introduce RzenEmbed, a unified framework to learn embeddings across a diverse set of modalities, including text, images, videos, and visual documents. We employ a novel two-stage training strategy to learn discriminative representations. The first stage focuses on foundational text and multimodal retrieval. In the second stage, we introduce an improved InfoNCE loss, incorporating two key enhancements. Firstly, a hardness-weighted mechanism guides the model to prioritize challenging samples by assigning them higher weights within each batch. Secondly, we implement an approach to mitigate the impact of false negatives and alleviate data noise. This strategy not only enhances the model's discriminative power but also improves its instruction-following capabilities. We further boost performance with learnable temperature parameter and model souping. RzenEmbed sets a new state-of-the-art on the MMEB benchmark. It not only achieves the best overall score but also outperforms all prior work on the challenging video and visual document retrieval tasks. Our models are available in https://huggingface.co/qihoo360/RzenEmbed.

Seismic processing transforms raw data into subsurface images essential for geophysical applications. Traditional methods face challenges, such as noisy data, and manual parameter tuning, among others. Recently deep learning approaches have proposed alternative solutions to some of these problems. However, important challenges of existing deep learning approaches are spatially inconsistent results across neighboring seismic gathers and lack of user-control. We address these limitations by introducing ContextSeisNet, an in-context learning model, to seismic demultiple processing. Our approach conditions predictions on a support set of spatially related example pairs: neighboring common-depth point gathers from the same seismic line and their corresponding labels. This allows the model to learn task-specific processing behavior at inference time by observing how similar gathers should be processed, without any retraining. This method provides both flexibility through user-defined examples and improved lateral consistency across seismic lines. On synthetic data, ContextSeisNet outperforms a U-Net baseline quantitatively and demonstrates enhanced spatial coherence between neighboring gathers. On field data, our model achieves superior lateral consistency compared to both traditional Radon demultiple and the U-Net baseline. Relative to the U-Net, ContextSeisNet also delivers improved near-offset performance and more complete multiple removal. Notably, ContextSeisNet achieves comparable field data performance despite being trained on 90% less data, demonstrating substantial data efficiency. These results establish ContextSeisNet as a practical approach for spatially consistent seismic demultiple with potential applicability to other seismic processing tasks.

Knowledge about the hidden factors that determine particular system dynamics is crucial for both explaining them and pursuing goal-directed interventions. Inferring these factors from time series data without supervision remains an open challenge. Here, we focus on spatiotemporal processes, including wave propagation and weather dynamics, for which we assume that universal causes (e.g. physics) apply throughout space and time. A recently introduced DIstributed SpatioTemporal graph Artificial Neural network Architecture (DISTANA) is used and enhanced to learn such processes, requiring fewer parameters and achieving significantly more accurate predictions compared to temporal convolutional neural networks and other related approaches. We show that DISTANA, when combined with a retrospective latent state inference principle called active tuning, can reliably derive location-respective hidden causal factors. In a current weather prediction benchmark, DISTANA infers our planet's land-sea mask solely by observing temperature dynamics and, meanwhile, uses the self inferred information to improve its own future temperature predictions.

The accuracy frontier of speech-to-text systems has plateaued on academic benchmarks.1 In contrast, industrial benchmarks and adoption in high-stakes domains suggest otherwise. We hypothesize that the primary difference between the two is contextual conditioning: Academic benchmarks are dominated by frequently encountered general vocabulary that is relatively easy to recognize compared with rare and context-defined custom vocabulary that has disproportionate impact on the usability of speech transcripts. Despite progress on contextual speech-to-text, there is no standardized benchmark. We introduce Contextual Earnings-22, an open dataset built upon Earnings-22, with realistic custom vocabulary contexts to foster research and reveal latent progress. We set six strong baselines for two dominant approaches: keyword prompting and keyword boosting. Experiments show both reach comparable and significantly improved accuracy when scaled from proof-of-concept to large-scale systems.

Spoken meaning often depends not only on what is said, but also on which word is emphasized. The same sentence can convey correction, contrast, or clarification depending on where emphasis falls. Although modern text-to-speech (TTS) systems generate expressive speech, it remains unclear whether they infer contextually appropriate stress from discourse alone. To address this gap, we present Context-Aware Stress TTS (CAST), a benchmark for evaluating context-conditioned word-level stress in TTS. Items are defined as contrastive context pairs: identical sentences paired with distinct contexts requiring different stressed words. We evaluate state-of-the-art systems and find a consistent gap: text-only language models reliably recover the intended stress from context, yet TTS systems frequently fail to realize it in speech. We release the benchmark, evaluation framework, construction pipeline and a synthetic corpus to support future work on context-aware speech synthesis.

Machine-learning-based parameterizations (i.e. representation of sub-grid processes) of global climate models or turbulent simulations have recently been proposed as a powerful alternative to physical, but empirical, representations, offering a lower computational cost and higher accuracy. Yet, those approaches still suffer from a lack of generalization and extrapolation beyond the training data, which is however critical to projecting climate change or unobserved regimes of turbulence. Here we show that a multi-fidelity approach, which integrates datasets of different accuracy and abundance, can provide the best of both worlds: the capacity to extrapolate leveraging the physically-based parameterization and a higher accuracy using the machine-learning-based parameterizations. In an application to climate modeling, the multi-fidelity framework yields more accurate climate projections without requiring major increase in computational resources. Our multi-fidelity randomized prior networks (MF-RPNs) combine physical parameterization data as low-fidelity and storm-resolving historical run's data as high-fidelity. To extrapolate beyond the training data, the MF-RPNs are tested on high-fidelity warming scenarios, +4K, data. We show the MF-RPN's capacity to return much more skillful predictions compared to either low- or high-fidelity (historical data) simulations trained only on one regime while providing trustworthy uncertainty quantification across a wide range of scenarios. Our approach paves the way for the use of machine-learning based methods that can optimally leverage historical observations or high-fidelity simulations and extrapolate to unseen regimes such as climate change.

Recent advances in Large Language Models (LLMs) have propelled intelligent agents from reactive responses to proactive support. While promising, existing proactive agents either rely exclusively on observations from enclosed environments (e.g., desktop UIs) with direct LLM inference or employ rule-based proactive notifications, leading to suboptimal user intent understanding and limited functionality for proactive service. In this paper, we introduce ContextAgent, the first context-aware proactive agent that incorporates extensive sensory contexts to enhance the proactive capabilities of LLM agents. ContextAgent first extracts multi-dimensional contexts from massive sensory perceptions on wearables (e.g., video and audio) to understand user intentions. ContextAgent then leverages the sensory contexts and the persona contexts from historical data to predict the necessity for proactive services. When proactive assistance is needed, ContextAgent further automatically calls the necessary tools to assist users unobtrusively. To evaluate this new task, we curate ContextAgentBench, the first benchmark for evaluating context-aware proactive LLM agents, covering 1,000 samples across nine daily scenarios and twenty tools. Experiments on ContextAgentBench show that ContextAgent outperforms baselines by achieving up to 8.5% and 6.0% higher accuracy in proactive predictions and tool calling, respectively. We hope our research can inspire the development of more advanced, human-centric, proactive AI assistants.

It is unclear whether strong forecasting performance reflects genuine temporal understanding or the ability to reason under contextual and event-driven conditions. We introduce TemporalBench, a multi-domain benchmark designed to evaluate temporal reasoning behavior under progressively richer informational settings. TemporalBench adopts a four-tier task taxonomy that examines historical structure interpretation, context-free forecasting, contextual temporal reasoning, and event-conditioned prediction across four real-world domains: retail, healthcare, energy, and physical systems. By controlling access to future targets and contextual information, the benchmark enables a diagnostic analysis of whether models can correctly interpret temporal patterns, align them with external context, and adapt predictions when conditions change. Extensive baseline experiments show that strong numerical forecasting accuracy does not reliably translate into robust contextual or event-aware temporal reasoning; instead, existing agent frameworks exhibit fragmented strengths and systematic failure modes that remain largely hidden under forecasting-only benchmarks. The TemporalBench dataset is publicly available at https://huggingface.co/datasets/Melady/TemporalBench, and we additionally provide a public leaderboard at https://huggingface.co/spaces/Melady/TemporalBench_Leaderboard.

Large language models are increasingly trained and deployed with long contexts that span documents, code repositories, and interaction histories. This scaling reflects the implicit assumption that training on longer contexts will only help the model by exposing it to richer evidence. We challenge this view by studying how the context window shapes a model's mode of learning, shifting it between parametric internalization and contextualization. We propose the Information Abundance Paradox, which hypothesizes that abundant relevant information in the training context can reduce the incentive to encode that information parametrically, thereby increasing reliance on context. In pretraining with long documents, increasing the context window improves language modeling, natural language understanding, and closed-book MCQA only up to an intermediate optimum, after which performance consistently declines. In supervised fine-tuning, more task-relevant train-time context improves performance with supporting context, but reduces robustness when context is absent or misleading at test time. Our analysis suggests that this behavior arises when longer context provides a lower complexity solution. Mechanistically, training with informative context shifts gradient pressure from feed-forward networks, often linked to parametric knowledge, toward attention modules, and causal interventions show that this shift increases reliance on context during inference. Overall, these findings support the Information Abundance Paradox and suggest that scaling toward near-infinite context is not simply a matter of supplying more data, even when high-quality long-context data is abundant.

Repositories of large software systems have become commonplace. This massive expansion has resulted in the emergence of various problems in these software platforms including identification of (i) bug-prone packages, (ii) critical bugs, and (iii) severity of bugs. One of the important goals would be to mine these bugs and recommend them to the developers to resolve them. The first step to this is that one has to accurately detect the extent of severity of the bugs. In this paper, we take up this task of predicting the severity of bugs in the near future. Contextualized neural models built on the text description of a bug and the user comments about the bug help to achieve reasonably good performance. Further information on how the bugs are related to each other in terms of the ways they affect packages can be summarised in the form of a graph and used along with the text to get additional benefits.

Recently, Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated outstanding performance across a wide range of downstream language tasks. Temperature sampling is a commonly used decoding strategy for LLMs' generation process. However, a fixed temperature parameter is used in most cases, which may not always be an optimal choice for balancing generation quality and diversity. In this paper, we propose an effective Entropy-based Dynamic Temperature (EDT) Sampling method, to achieve a more balanced performance in terms of both generation quality and diversity by dynamically selecting the temperature parameter. Additionally, we also show model performance and comprehensive analyses for 4 different generation benchmarks. Our experiments show that EDT significantly outperforms the existing strategies across different tasks.

Large language models now solve many benchmark math problems at near-expert levels, yet this progress has not fully translated into reliable performance in real-world applications. We study this gap through contextual mathematical reasoning, where the mathematical core must be formulated from descriptive scenarios. We introduce ContextMATH, a benchmark that repurposes AIME and MATH-500 problems into two contextual settings: Scenario Grounding (SG), which embeds abstract problems into realistic narratives without increasing reasoning complexity, and Complexity Scaling (CS), which transforms explicit conditions into sub-problems to capture how constraints often appear in practice. Evaluating 61 proprietary and open-source models, we observe sharp drops: on average, open-source models decline by 13 and 34 points on SG and CS, while proprietary models drop by 13 and 20. Error analysis shows that errors are dominated by incorrect problem formulation, with formulation accuracy declining as original problem difficulty increases. Correct formulation emerges as a prerequisite for success, and its sufficiency improves with model scale, indicating that larger models advance in both understanding and reasoning. Nevertheless, formulation and reasoning remain two complementary bottlenecks that limit contextual mathematical problem solving. Finally, we find that fine-tuning with scenario data improves performance, whereas formulation-only training is ineffective. However, performance gaps are only partially alleviated, highlighting contextual mathematical reasoning as a central unsolved challenge for LLMs.

Climate change is profoundly affecting nearly all aspects of life on earth, including human societies, economies and health. Various human activities are responsible for significant greenhouse gas emissions, including data centres and other sources of large-scale computation. Although many important scientific milestones have been achieved thanks to the development of high-performance computing, the resultant environmental impact has been underappreciated. In this paper, we present a methodological framework to estimate the carbon footprint of any computational task in a standardised and reliable way, based on the processing time, type of computing cores, memory available and the efficiency and location of the computing facility. Metrics to interpret and contextualise greenhouse gas emissions are defined, including the equivalent distance travelled by car or plane as well as the number of tree-months necessary for carbon sequestration. We develop a freely available online tool, Green Algorithms (www.green-algorithms.org), which enables a user to estimate and report the carbon footprint of their computation. The Green Algorithms tool easily integrates with computational processes as it requires minimal information and does not interfere with existing code, while also accounting for a broad range of CPUs, GPUs, cloud computing, local servers and desktop computers. Finally, by applying Green Algorithms, we quantify the greenhouse gas emissions of algorithms used for particle physics simulations, weather forecasts and natural language processing. Taken together, this study develops a simple generalisable framework and freely available tool to quantify the carbon footprint of nearly any computation. Combined with a series of recommendations to minimise unnecessary CO2 emissions, we hope to raise awareness and facilitate greener computation.

We introduce Version 3 (V3) of the gridded near real-time Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP) product -- the first fully global, historical machine learning powered precipitation (P) dataset, developed to meet the growing demand for timely and accurate P estimates amid escalating climate challenges. MSWEP V3 provides hourly data at 0.1^circ resolution from 1979 to the present, continuously updated with a latency of approximately two hours. Development follows a two-stage process. First, baseline P fields are generated using machine learning model stacks that integrate satellite- and (re)analysis-based P and air-temperature products, along with static variables. The models are trained using hourly and daily observations from 15,959 P gauges worldwide. Second, these baseline P fields are corrected using daily and monthly gauge observations from 57,666 and 86,000 stations globally. To assess MSWEP V3's baseline performance, we evaluated 19 (quasi-) global gridded P products -- including both uncorrected and gauge-based products -- using observations from an independent set of 15,958 gauges excluded from the first training stage. The MSWEP V3 baseline achieved a median daily Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) of 0.69, outperforming all evaluated products. Other uncorrected products achieved median daily KGE values of 0.61 (ERA5), 0.46 (IMERG-L V7), 0.38 (GSMaP V8), and 0.31 (CHIRP). Using leave-one-out cross-validation, the daily gauge correction was found to improve the median daily correlation by 0.09, constrained by the already strong baseline performance. We anticipate that MSWEP V3 -- accessible at www.gloh2o.org/mswep -- will enable more reliable monitoring, forecasting, and management of water-related risks in a variable and changing climate.

Inferring past human motion from RGB images is challenging due to the inherent uncertainty of the prediction problem. Thermal images, on the other hand, encode traces of past human-object interactions left in the environment via thermal radiation measurement. Based on this observation, we collect the first RGB-Thermal dataset for human motion analysis, dubbed Thermal-IM. Then we develop a three-stage neural network model for accurate past human pose estimation. Comprehensive experiments show that thermal cues significantly reduce the ambiguities of this task, and the proposed model achieves remarkable performance. The dataset is available at https://github.com/ZitianTang/Thermal-IM.

Machine learning (ML) has emerged as a cost-effective approach to complement dynamical downscaling for producing high-resolution regional climate projections. However, the absence of standardised training and evaluation protocols, applied consistently across multiple domains, continues to hinder meaningful model intercomparison. We introduce CORDEX-ML-Bench, a benchmark aligned with CORDEX, which constitutes the first phase of a community initiative to advance data-driven downscaling toward operational readiness, and complement future dynamical downscaling efforts under CMIP7. The framework targets downscaled daily maximum temperature and precipitation to ~10 km resolution (20x increase) across three pilot regions; European Alps, New Zealand, and Southern Africa. Using a perfect-model experimental design, we evaluate 40 ML configurations developed independently, spanning traditional ML, convolutional U-Nets, vision transformers, graph neural networks, and generative models based on diffusion, flow matching, and generative adversarial networks. Models are trained under two experimental periods, an empirical-statistical downscaling pseudo-reality (historical period only) and Emulator (historical and future periods) -and are evaluated against a core set of metrics developed specifically for assessing downscaling skill. Generative models consistently outperform deterministic approaches for precipitation, better capturing fine-scale variability and extremes. For temperature, the generative advantage narrows and deterministic architectures remain competitive. Models trained solely on the historical period systematically underestimate future climate-change signals while those additionally trained on a future period perform better. These findings raise concerns about historically trained models widely used in an operational setting, underscoring the need for rigorous extrapolation testing.

Accurate net load forecasting is vital for energy planning, aiding decisions on trade and load distribution. However, assessing the performance of forecasting models across diverse input variables, like temperature and humidity, remains challenging, particularly for eliciting a high degree of trust in the model outcomes. In this context, there is a growing need for data-driven technological interventions to aid scientists in comprehending how models react to both noisy and clean input variables, thus shedding light on complex behaviors and fostering confidence in the outcomes. In this paper, we present Forte, a visual analytics-based application to explore deep probabilistic net load forecasting models across various input variables and understand the error rates for different scenarios. With carefully designed visual interventions, this web-based interface empowers scientists to derive insights about model performance by simulating diverse scenarios, facilitating an informed decision-making process. We discuss observations made using Forte and demonstrate the effectiveness of visualization techniques to provide valuable insights into the correlation between weather inputs and net load forecasts, ultimately advancing grid capabilities by improving trust in forecasting models.

Large Language Models (LLMs) demonstrate partial forecasting competence across social, political, and economic events. Yet, their predictive ability varies sharply with domain structure and prompt framing. We investigate how forecasting performance varies with different model families on real-world questions about events that happened beyond the model cutoff date. We analyze how context, question type, and external knowledge affect accuracy and calibration, and how adding factual news context modifies belief formation and failure modes. Our results show that forecasting ability is highly variable as it depends on what, and how, we ask.

In-context learning (ICL) is a type of prompting where a transformer model operates on a sequence of (input, output) examples and performs inference on-the-fly. In this work, we formalize in-context learning as an algorithm learning problem where a transformer model implicitly constructs a hypothesis function at inference-time. We first explore the statistical aspects of this abstraction through the lens of multitask learning: We obtain generalization bounds for ICL when the input prompt is (1) a sequence of i.i.d. (input, label) pairs or (2) a trajectory arising from a dynamical system. The crux of our analysis is relating the excess risk to the stability of the algorithm implemented by the transformer. We characterize when transformer/attention architecture provably obeys the stability condition and also provide empirical verification. For generalization on unseen tasks, we identify an inductive bias phenomenon in which the transfer learning risk is governed by the task complexity and the number of MTL tasks in a highly predictable manner. Finally, we provide numerical evaluations that (1) demonstrate transformers can indeed implement near-optimal algorithms on classical regression problems with i.i.d. and dynamic data, (2) provide insights on stability, and (3) verify our theoretical predictions.

Context utilisation, the ability of Language Models (LMs) to incorporate relevant information from the provided context when generating responses, remains largely opaque to users, who cannot determine whether models draw from parametric memory or provided context, nor identify which specific context pieces inform the response. Highlight explanations (HEs) offer a natural solution as they can point the exact context pieces and tokens that influenced model outputs. However, no existing work evaluates their effectiveness in accurately explaining context utilisation. We address this gap by introducing the first gold standard HE evaluation framework for context attribution, using controlled test cases with known ground-truth context usage, which avoids the limitations of existing indirect proxy evaluations. To demonstrate the framework's broad applicability, we evaluate four HE methods -- three established techniques and MechLight, a mechanistic interpretability approach we adapt for this task -- across four context scenarios, four datasets, and five LMs. Overall, we find that MechLight performs best across all context scenarios. However, all methods struggle with longer contexts and exhibit positional biases, pointing to fundamental challenges in explanation accuracy that require new approaches to deliver reliable context utilisation explanations at scale.

Warning: This paper contains content that may be offensive or upsetting. Understanding the harms and offensiveness of statements requires reasoning about the social and situational context in which statements are made. For example, the utterance "your English is very good" may implicitly signal an insult when uttered by a white man to a non-white colleague, but uttered by an ESL teacher to their student would be interpreted as a genuine compliment. Such contextual factors have been largely ignored by previous approaches to toxic language detection. We introduce COBRA frames, the first context-aware formalism for explaining the intents, reactions, and harms of offensive or biased statements grounded in their social and situational context. We create COBRACORPUS, a dataset of 33k potentially offensive statements paired with machine-generated contexts and free-text explanations of offensiveness, implied biases, speaker intents, and listener reactions. To study the contextual dynamics of offensiveness, we train models to generate COBRA explanations, with and without access to the context. We find that explanations by context-agnostic models are significantly worse than by context-aware ones, especially in situations where the context inverts the statement's offensiveness (29% accuracy drop). Our work highlights the importance and feasibility of contextualized NLP by modeling social factors.

Pretrained time series models have enabled inference-only forecasting systems that produce accurate predictions without task-specific training. However, existing approaches largely focus on univariate forecasting, limiting their applicability in real-world scenarios where multivariate data and covariates play a crucial role. We present Chronos-2, a pretrained model capable of handling univariate, multivariate, and covariate-informed forecasting tasks in a zero-shot manner. Chronos-2 employs a group attention mechanism that facilitates in-context learning (ICL) through efficient information sharing across multiple time series within a group, which may represent sets of related series, variates of a multivariate series, or targets and covariates in a forecasting task. These general capabilities are achieved through training on synthetic datasets that impose diverse multivariate structures on univariate series. Chronos-2 delivers state-of-the-art performance across three comprehensive benchmarks: fev-bench, GIFT-Eval, and Chronos Benchmark II. On fev-bench, which emphasizes multivariate and covariate-informed forecasting, Chronos-2's universal ICL capabilities lead to substantial improvements over existing models. On tasks involving covariates, it consistently outperforms baselines by a wide margin. Case studies in the energy and retail domains further highlight its practical advantages. The in-context learning capabilities of Chronos-2 establish it as a general-purpose forecasting model that can be used "as is" in real-world forecasting pipelines.

In this paper, we study the predict-then-optimize problem where the output of a machine learning prediction task is used as the input of some downstream optimization problem, say, the objective coefficient vector of a linear program. The problem is also known as predictive analytics or contextual linear programming. The existing approaches largely suffer from either (i) optimization intractability (a non-convex objective function)/statistical inefficiency (a suboptimal generalization bound) or (ii) requiring strong condition(s) such as no constraint or loss calibration. We develop a new approach to the problem called maximum optimality margin which designs the machine learning loss function by the optimality condition of the downstream optimization. The max-margin formulation enjoys both computational efficiency and good theoretical properties for the learning procedure. More importantly, our new approach only needs the observations of the optimal solution in the training data rather than the objective function, which makes it a new and natural approach to the inverse linear programming problem under both contextual and context-free settings; we also analyze the proposed method under both offline and online settings, and demonstrate its performance using numerical experiments.

We introduce a new context-enriched, multimodal time series forecasting benchmark, TimesX. TimesX contains a wide selection of high-quality real-world time series with diverse domains and textual contexts obtained from an automated data generation pipeline, which helps address three main issues of existing multimodal forecasting benchmarks: (1) poor generalization due to the small scale and synthetic nature of benchmark data, (2) very limited types of textual contexts in the benchmarks, and (3) an inability to mitigate data leakage in evaluation. We conduct a thorough empirical study of zero-shot multimodal forecasting approaches on TimesX. Our results suggest that many approaches that perform well on existing benchmarks may fail on TimesX. In contrast, simple ensemble methods that leverage rich textual context accompanying time-series can outperform strong baselines on TimesX.

In-context learning (ICL) is often motivated by the intuition that demonstrations help because they provide correct input-output examples. However, we reveal a counterintuitive phenomenon: correctness does not guarantee exemplar utility, and some correct demonstrations can even reduce ICL accuracy. To study this correctness-utility gap, we introduce task-preserving perturbations, where only the exemplar input is changed, while the example remains a correct instance of the same task. Concretely, each perturbed exemplar is assigned the target induced by the task mapping. This framework covers both label-updating perturbations, where task-relevant semantics change and targets are recomputed, and stricter target-preserving perturbations, where the original target remains valid. We formalize the resulting failure mode as contextual evidence shift: task-preserving perturbations can change the effective mixture of evidence used by the model for contextual inference, thereby separating exemplar correctness from exemplar utility. Across sentiment classification, logical reasoning, and math word problems, we find that task-preserving perturbed demonstrations can substantially degrade ICL performance, especially for smaller models, harder tasks, and higher perturbation ratios. Our results show that robust ICL requires evaluating not only whether demonstrations are correct, but also how they influence contextual inference. Code is available at https://github.com/Chenghao-Qiu/Task-Preserving-ICL.

Contextual hallucinations -- statements unsupported by given context -- remain a significant challenge in AI. We demonstrate a practical interpretability insight: a generator-agnostic observer model detects hallucinations via a single forward pass and a linear probe on its residual stream. This probe isolates a single, transferable linear direction separating hallucinated from faithful text, outperforming baselines by 5-27 points and showing robust mid-layer performance across Gemma-2 models (2B to 27B). Gradient-times-activation localises this signal to sparse, late-layer MLP activity. Critically, manipulating this direction causally steers generator hallucination rates, proving its actionability. Our results offer novel evidence of internal, low-dimensional hallucination tracking linked to specific MLP sub-circuits, exploitable for detection and mitigation. We release the 2000-example ContraTales benchmark for realistic assessment of such solutions.

Vision-language models can connect the text description of an object to its specific location in an image through visual grounding. This has potential applications in enhanced radiology reporting. However, these models require large annotated image-text datasets, which are lacking for PET/CT. We developed an automated pipeline to generate weak labels linking PET/CT report descriptions to their image locations and used it to train a 3D vision-language visual grounding model. Our pipeline finds positive findings in PET/CT reports by identifying mentions of SUVmax and axial slice numbers. From 25,578 PET/CT exams, we extracted 11,356 sentence-label pairs. Using this data, we trained ConTEXTual Net 3D, which integrates text embeddings from a large language model with a 3D nnU-Net via token-level cross-attention. The model's performance was compared against LLMSeg, a 2.5D version of ConTEXTual Net, and two nuclear medicine physicians. The weak-labeling pipeline accurately identified lesion locations in 98% of cases (246/251), with 7.5% requiring boundary adjustments. ConTEXTual Net 3D achieved an F1 score of 0.80, outperforming LLMSeg (F1=0.22) and the 2.5D model (F1=0.53), though it underperformed both physicians (F1=0.94 and 0.91). The model achieved better performance on FDG (F1=0.78) and DCFPyL (F1=0.75) exams, while performance dropped on DOTATE (F1=0.58) and Fluciclovine (F1=0.66). The model performed consistently across lesion sizes but showed reduced accuracy on lesions with low uptake. Our novel weak labeling pipeline accurately produced an annotated dataset of PET/CT image-text pairs, facilitating the development of 3D visual grounding models. ConTEXTual Net 3D significantly outperformed other models but fell short of the performance of nuclear medicine physicians. Our study suggests that even larger datasets may be needed to close this performance gap.

Soil moisture-precipitation coupling (SMPC) plays a critical role in Earth's water and energy cycles but remains difficult to quantify due to synoptic-scale variability and the complex interplay of land-atmosphere processes. Here, we apply high-dimensional model representation (HDMR) to functionally decompose the structural, correlative, and cooperative contributions of key land-atmosphere variables to precipitation. Benchmark tests confirm that HDMR overcomes limitations of commonly used correlation and regression approaches in isolating direct versus indirect effects. For example, analysis of gross primary productivity using a light-use-efficiency model shows that linear regression underestimates the temperature effect, while HDMR captures it accurately. Applying HDMR to CONUS404 reanalysis data reveals that morning soil moisture explains up to 40 percent of the variance in summertime afternoon precipitation over the Great Plains, more than double prior estimates. On days with afternoon rainfall (12-hour totals of 4.7-8.2 mm), first-order SM effects can boost precipitation by up to 8 mm under wet conditions, with an additional 3 mm from second-order interactions involving temperature and moisture. By capturing real-world co-variability and higher-order effects, HDMR provides a physically grounded, data-driven framework for diagnosing land-atmosphere coupling. These results underscore the need for more nuanced, interaction-aware data analysis methods in climate modeling and prediction.

Recent works have shown a reduction from contextual bandits to online regression under a realizability assumption [Foster and Rakhlin, 2020, Foster and Krishnamurthy, 2021]. In this work, we investigate the use of neural networks for such online regression and associated Neural Contextual Bandits (NeuCBs). Using existing results for wide networks, one can readily show a {O}(T) regret for online regression with square loss, which via the reduction implies a {O}(K T^{3/4}) regret for NeuCBs. Departing from this standard approach, we first show a O(log T) regret for online regression with almost convex losses that satisfy QG (Quadratic Growth) condition, a generalization of the PL (Polyak-\L ojasiewicz) condition, and that have a unique minima. Although not directly applicable to wide networks since they do not have unique minima, we show that adding a suitable small random perturbation to the network predictions surprisingly makes the loss satisfy QG with unique minima. Based on such a perturbed prediction, we show a {O}(log T) regret for online regression with both squared loss and KL loss, and subsequently convert these respectively to mathcal{O}(KT) and mathcal{O}(KL^* + K) regret for NeuCB, where L^* is the loss of the best policy. Separately, we also show that existing regret bounds for NeuCBs are Omega(T) or assume i.i.d. contexts, unlike this work. Finally, our experimental results on various datasets demonstrate that our algorithms, especially the one based on KL loss, persistently outperform existing algorithms.

Survival analysis is crucial for many medical applications, but remains challenging for modern machine learning due to limited data, censoring, and the heterogeneity of tabular covariates. While the prior-fitted paradigm, which relies on pretraining models on large collections of synthetic datasets, has recently facilitated tabular foundation models for classification and regression, its suitability for time-to-event modeling remains unclear. We propose a flexible survival data generation framework that defines a rich survival prior with explicit control over covariates and time-event distributions. Building on this prior, we introduce Survival In-Context (SIC), a prior-fitted in-context learning model for survival analysis that is pretrained exclusively on synthetic data. SIC is trained to approximate Bayesian posterior predictive inference under the synthetic survival prior, enabling individualized survival prediction in a single forward pass, requiring no task-specific training or hyperparameter tuning. Across a broad evaluation on real-world survival datasets, SIC achieves competitive or superior performance compared to classical and deep survival models, particularly in small and medium-sized data regimes, highlighting the promise of a prior-fitted paradigm for survival analysis. The code and pretrained models will be made available upon publication.

Earth Observation (EO) forecasting aims to predict future Earth surface dynamics from satellite observations under changing meteorological conditions. In this paper, we view this task as a partially observed, weather-driven world modeling problem, in which weather acts as a conditioning signal, while forecasting remains uncertain due to sparse observations and unobserved land-surface states. However, existing methods do not fully capture this setting: deterministic models collapse uncertainty into a single future prediction, while diffusion-based methods typically treat weather variables as undifferentiated conditioning signals, and existing benchmarks focus mainly on reconstruction accuracy rather than whether forecasts respond correctly to changed weather forcing.We introduce EO-WM, a video diffusion transformer for multispectral EO forecasting. EO-WM incorporates a physically informed conditioning framework that represents meteorological forcing through a climatological baseline, weather anomalies, and cumulative physical stress signals. Specifically, it separates baseline and anomaly through distinct conditioning pathways, and accumulates anomalous forcing over time to capture sustained heat and drought stress. To evaluate weather-response behavior beyond standard metrics, we introduce two diagnostic benchmarks: an Extreme Summer Benchmark for severity-aware prediction of vegetation degradation under extreme weather, and a Seasonal Matched-Pair Benchmark for testing response fidelity under changed weather forcing. Experiments show that EO-WM reduces the error in predicted Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) decline amplitude by a relative 5.63% and improves directional hit rate by a relative 7.80%, while remaining competitive on standard pixel-level metrics. The benchmarks and model will be made open-source at https://github.com/Luo-Z13/EO-WM.

Modern object detectors achieve strong performance on standard benchmarks, yet their robustness to contextual variation remains insufficiently understood. Prior evaluations largely rely on aggregate metrics such as AP on uncontrolled distribution shifts, which can obscure how performance degrades under context change. We introduce ContextShift, a controlled benchmark that systematically manipulates object--context relationships while preserving object appearance. Built on COCO 2017, it isolates context as an independent variable through geometric transformations and synthetic and natural background substitutions, including a continuous compatibility axis based on normalized pointwise mutual information (NPMI). Across diverse detector architectures, we observe a consistent degradation pattern: false negatives increase by up to 227% and prediction volume decreases by up to 44%, while false positives remain stable or decline. This suppression behavior is not captured by aggregate metrics such as AP, which can mask substantial recall loss and changes in prediction dynamics. Further analysis suggests that degradation is driven less by reduced confidence than by a reduced formation of valid detection candidates. Moreover, performance along the statistical compatibility axis is non-monotonic, peaking at intermediate NPMI and degrading toward both extremes, indicating that statistical co-occurrence does not correlate linearly with effective visual context. Finally, we show that context-aware augmentation improves robustness: every augmented variant outperforms the dataset-only baseline on both original and manipulated test images, partially recovering performance lost to prediction-suppression failures by exposing models to object--context decoupling during training.

In this paper, we propose to disentangle and interpret contextual effects that are encoded in a pre-trained deep neural network. We use our method to explain the gaming strategy of the alphaGo Zero model. Unlike previous studies that visualized image appearances corresponding to the network output or a neural activation only from a global perspective, our research aims to clarify how a certain input unit (dimension) collaborates with other units (dimensions) to constitute inference patterns of the neural network and thus contribute to the network output. The analysis of local contextual effects w.r.t. certain input units is of special values in real applications. Explaining the logic of the alphaGo Zero model is a typical application. In experiments, our method successfully disentangled the rationale of each move during the Go game.

Estimating the causal effects of a spatially-varying intervention on a spatially-varying outcome may be subject to non-local confounding (NLC), a phenomenon that can bias estimates when the treatments and outcomes of a given unit are dictated in part by the covariates of other nearby units. In particular, NLC is a challenge for evaluating the effects of environmental policies and climate events on health-related outcomes such as air pollution exposure. This paper first formalizes NLC using the potential outcomes framework, providing a comparison with the related phenomenon of causal interference. Then, it proposes a broadly applicable framework, termed "weather2vec", that uses the theory of balancing scores to learn representations of non-local information into a scalar or vector defined for each observational unit, which is subsequently used to adjust for confounding in conjunction with causal inference methods. The framework is evaluated in a simulation study and two case studies on air pollution where the weather is an (inherently regional) known confounder.

Large language models that use retrieval augmented generation have the potential to unlock valuable knowledge for researchers, policymakers, and the public by making long and technical climate-related documents more accessible. While this approach can help alleviate factual hallucinations by relying on retrieved passages as additional context, its effectiveness depends on whether the model's output remains faithful to these passages. To address this, we explore the automatic assessment of faithfulness of different models in this setting. We then focus on ClimateGPT, a large language model specialised in climate science, to examine which factors in its instruction fine-tuning impact the model's faithfulness. By excluding unfaithful subsets of the model's training data, we develop ClimateGPT Faithful+, which achieves an improvement in faithfulness from 30% to 57% in supported atomic claims according to our automatic metric.

In-context learning (ICL) is the ability of a model to learn a new task by observing a few exemplars in its context. While prevalent in NLP, this capability has recently also been observed in Reinforcement Learning (RL) settings. Prior in-context RL methods, however, require entire episodes in the agent's context. Given that complex environments typically lead to long episodes with sparse rewards, these methods are constrained to simple environments with short episodes. To address these challenges, we introduce Retrieval-Augmented Decision Transformer (RA-DT). RA-DT employs an external memory mechanism to store past experiences from which it retrieves only sub-trajectories relevant for the current situation. The retrieval component in RA-DT does not require training and can be entirely domain-agnostic. We evaluate the capabilities of RA-DT on grid-world environments, robotics simulations, and procedurally-generated video games. On grid-worlds, RA-DT outperforms baselines, while using only a fraction of their context length. Furthermore, we illuminate the limitations of current in-context RL methods on complex environments and discuss future directions. To facilitate future research, we release datasets for four of the considered environments.

Knowledge Distillation (KD) trains a smaller student model using a large, pre-trained teacher model, with temperature as a key hyperparameter controlling the softness of output probabilities. Traditional methods use a fixed temperature throughout training, which is suboptimal. Moreover, architectural differences between teacher and student often result in mismatched logit magnitudes. We demonstrate that students benefit from softer probabilities early in training but require sharper probabilities in later stages. We introduce Dynamic Temperature Scheduler (DTS), which adjusts temperature dynamically based on the cross-entropy loss gap between teacher and student. To our knowledge, this is the first temperature scheduling method that adapts based on the divergence between teacher and student distributions. Our method integrates seamlessly with existing KD frameworks. We validate DTS across multiple KD strategies on vision (CIFAR-100, Tiny-ImageNet) and NLP tasks (GLUE, Dolly, SelfIns, UnNI, S-NI), consistently outperforming static-temperature baselines. Code is available at https://github.com/Sibgat-Ul/DTS.

Urbanization, climate change, and agricultural stress are increasing the demand for precise and timely environmental monitoring. Land Surface Temperature (LST) is a key variable in this context and is retrieved from remote sensing satellites. However, these systems face a trade-off between spatial and temporal resolution. While spatio-temporal fusion methods offer promising solutions, few have addressed the estimation of daily LST at 10 m resolution. In this study, we present WGAST, a Weakly-Supervised Generative Network for Daily 10 m LST Estimation via Spatio-Temporal Fusion of Terra MODIS, Landsat 8, and Sentinel-2. WGAST is the first end-to-end deep learning framework designed for this task. It adopts a conditional generative adversarial architecture, with a generator composed of four stages: feature extraction, fusion, LST reconstruction, and noise suppression. The first stage employs a set of encoders to extract multi-level latent representations from the inputs, which are then fused in the second stage using cosine similarity, normalization, and temporal attention mechanisms. The third stage decodes the fused features into high-resolution LST, followed by a Gaussian filter to suppress high-frequency noise. Training follows a weakly supervised strategy based on physical averaging principles and reinforced by a PatchGAN discriminator. Experiments demonstrate that WGAST outperforms existing methods in both quantitative and qualitative evaluations. Compared to the best-performing baseline, on average, WGAST reduces RMSE by 17.18% and improves SSIM by 11.00%. Furthermore, WGAST is robust to cloud-induced LST and effectively captures fine-scale thermal patterns, as validated against 33 ground-based sensors. The code is available at https://github.com/Sofianebouaziz1/WGAST.git.

In-Context Learning (ICL) is a technique by which language models make predictions based on examples provided in their input context. Previously, their context window size imposed a limit on the number of examples that can be shown, making example selection techniques crucial for identifying the maximally effective set of examples. However, the recent advent of Long Context Language Models (LCLMs) has significantly increased the number of examples that can be included in context, raising an important question of whether ICL performance in a many-shot regime is still sensitive to the method of sample selection. To answer this, we revisit these approaches in the context of LCLMs through extensive experiments on 18 datasets spanning 4 tasks. Surprisingly, we observe that sophisticated example selection techniques do not yield significant improvements over a simple random sample selection method. Instead, we find that the advent of LCLMs has fundamentally shifted the challenge of ICL from that of selecting the most effective examples to that of collecting sufficient examples to fill the context window. Specifically, in certain datasets, including all available examples does not fully utilize the context window; however, by augmenting the examples in context with a simple data augmentation approach, we substantially improve ICL performance by 5%.

In-context learning refers to the emerging ability of large language models (LLMs) to perform a target task without additional training, utilizing demonstrations of the task. Recent studies aim to enhance in-context learning performance by selecting more useful demonstrations. However, they overlook the presence of inevitable noisy labels in task demonstrations that arise during the labeling process in the real-world. In this paper, we propose a new task, in-context learning with noisy labels, which aims to solve real-world problems for in-context learning where labels in task demonstrations would be corrupted. Moreover, we propose a new method and baseline methods for the new task, inspired by studies in learning with noisy labels. Through experiments, we demonstrate that our proposed method can serve as a safeguard against performance degradation in in-context learning caused by noisy labels.

Real-world time-series applications increasingly require models that can handle time series forecasting, context-conditioned prediction, and language-based temporal reasoning. Yet current time-series foundation models remain fragmented across these capabilities: numerical specialists often provide the strongest forecasts, while language-based models offer broader contextual understanding and analysis. A central challenge is to unify these heterogeneous capabilities without reducing their individual performance. We introduce OpenTSLM TeeMoE, a generalist time-series language model that can forecast directly from observed time series, reason over textual context and temporal patterns, and synthesize and refine predictions from external numerical forecasting specialists. We independently train three low-rank experts for forecast aggregation, native forecasting, and temporal analysis over a shared backbone. A learned LoRA mixture-of-experts controller then weights their frozen parameter updates for each request. Our proposed model achieves strong performance on widely used benchmarks for time series forecasting, context-conditioned prediction, and language-based temporal reasoning, ranking among the top three on GIFT-Eval by mean MASE rank, Context is Key by RCRPS, and TimeSeriesExam by accuracy.

As Model Context Protocol (MCP) introduces an easy-to-use ecosystem for users and developers, it also brings underexplored safety risks. Its decentralized architecture, which separates clients and servers, poses unique challenges for systematic safety analysis. This paper proposes a novel framework to enhance MCP safety. Guided by the MAESTRO framework, we first analyze the missing safety mechanisms in MCP, and based on this analysis, we propose the Model Contextual Integrity Protocol (MCIP), a refined version of MCP that addresses these gaps. Next, we develop a fine-grained taxonomy that captures a diverse range of unsafe behaviors observed in MCP scenarios. Building on this taxonomy, we develop benchmark and training data that support the evaluation and improvement of LLMs' capabilities in identifying safety risks within MCP interactions. Leveraging the proposed benchmark and training data, we conduct extensive experiments on state-of-the-art LLMs. The results highlight LLMs' vulnerabilities in MCP interactions and demonstrate that our approach substantially improves their safety performance.

The image relighting task of transferring illumination conditions between two images offers an interesting and difficult challenge with potential applications in photography, cinematography and computer graphics. In this report we present methods that we tried to achieve that goal. Our models are trained on a rendered dataset of artificial locations with varied scene content, light source location and color temperature. With this dataset, we used a network with illumination estimation component aiming to infer and replace light conditions in the latent space representation of the concerned scenes.

Misinformation about climate change is a complex societal issue requiring holistic, interdisciplinary solutions at the intersection between technology and psychology. One proposed solution is a "technocognitive" approach, involving the synthesis of psychological and computer science research. Psychological research has identified that interventions in response to misinformation require both fact-based (e.g., factual explanations) and technique-based (e.g., explanations of misleading techniques) content. However, little progress has been made on documenting and detecting fallacies in climate misinformation. In this study, we apply a previously developed critical thinking methodology for deconstructing climate misinformation, in order to develop a dataset mapping different types of climate misinformation to reasoning fallacies. This dataset is used to train a model to detect fallacies in climate misinformation. Our study shows F1 scores that are 2.5 to 3.5 better than previous works. The fallacies that are easiest to detect include fake experts and anecdotal arguments, while fallacies that require background knowledge, such as oversimplification, misrepresentation, and slothful induction, are relatively more difficult to detect. This research lays the groundwork for development of solutions where automatically detected climate misinformation can be countered with generative technique-based corrections.

Hyperthermia (HT) in combination with radio- and/or chemotherapy has become an accepted cancer treatment for distinct solid tumour entities. In HT, tumour tissue is exogenously heated to temperatures between 39 and 43 ^circC for 60 minutes. Temperature monitoring can be performed non-invasively using dynamic magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). However, the slow nature of MRI leads to motion artefacts in the images due to the movements of patients during image acquisition. By discarding parts of the data, the speed of the acquisition can be increased - known as undersampling. However, due to the invalidation of the Nyquist criterion, the acquired images might be blurry and can also produce aliasing artefacts. The aim of this work was, therefore, to reconstruct highly undersampled MR thermometry acquisitions with better resolution and with fewer artefacts compared to conventional methods. The use of deep learning in the medical field has emerged in recent times, and various studies have shown that deep learning has the potential to solve inverse problems such as MR image reconstruction. However, most of the published work only focuses on the magnitude images, while the phase images are ignored, which are fundamental requirements for MR thermometry. This work, for the first time, presents deep learning-based solutions for reconstructing undersampled MR thermometry data. Two different deep learning models have been employed here, the Fourier Primal-Dual network and the Fourier Primal-Dual UNet, to reconstruct highly undersampled complex images of MR thermometry. The method reduced the temperature difference between the undersampled MRIs and the fully sampled MRIs from 1.3 ^circC to 0.6 ^circC in full volume and 0.49 ^circC to 0.06 ^circC in the tumour region for an acceleration factor of 10.

Time series data is ubiquitous in real-world scenarios and crucial for critical applications ranging from energy management to traffic control. Consequently, the ability to reason over time series is a fundamental skill for generalist models to solve practical problems. However, this dimension is notably absent from existing benchmarks of generalist models. To bridge this gap, we introduce TSRBench, a comprehensive multi-modal benchmark designed to stress-test the full spectrum of time series reasoning capabilities. TSRBench features: i) a diverse set of 4125 problems from 14 domains, and is categorized into 4 major dimensions: Perception, Reasoning, Prediction, and Decision-Making. ii) 15 tasks from the 4 dimensions evaluating essential reasoning capabilities (e.g., numerical reasoning). Through extensive experiments, we evaluated over 30 leading proprietary and open-source LLMs, VLMs, and TSLLMs within TSRBench. Our findings reveal that: i) scaling laws hold for perception and reasoning but break down for prediction; ii) strong reasoning does not guarantee accurate context-aware forecasting, indicating a decoupling between semantic understanding and numerical prediction; and iii) despite the complementary nature of textual and visual represenations of time series as inputs, current multimodal models fail to effectively fuse them for reciprocal performance gains. TSRBench provides a standardized evaluation platform that not only highlights existing challenges but also offers valuable insights to advance generalist models. Our code and dataset are available at https://tsrbench.github.io/.