Daily Papers

Visual grounding combines image--language understanding with geometric prediction, yet autoregressive multimodal models often express a box as a coordinate sequence. Sequential decoding adds computation to the multimodal processing needed for localization. Adapting these representations to box geometry offers a route to direct prediction. We present Jag, which adapts a compact pretrained multimodal model for direct continuous box prediction. A lightweight regression head reads the last valid input-token state, conditioned on the image and referring expression, and predicts all four box coordinates together. Geometric supervision jointly adapts the language backbone, visual merger, and regression head, allowing localization losses to shape both the multimodal representations and the coordinate mapping. Inference retains image--language processing and returns the box in one forward pass, without coordinate generation or text parsing. Across benchmarks, Jag consistently improves grounding accuracy over its base model across the observed target sizes and expression groups. Component ablation show that jointly adapting the representations and head substantially improves accuracy over training the head alone. Against existing specialized grounding models, it achieves competitive accuracy with lower single-request latency and GPU memory use. These results show how supervision tailored to the geometric answer can specialize a compact pretrained multimodal model for accurate grounding and efficient direct prediction. Project page: https://xyzzzh.github.io/Jag/

Object detection has long been dominated by traditional coordinate regression-based models, such as YOLO, DETR, and Grounding DINO. Although recent efforts have attempted to leverage MLLMs to tackle this task, they face challenges like low recall rate, duplicate predictions, coordinate misalignment, etc. In this work, we bridge this gap and propose Rex-Omni, a 3B-scale MLLM that achieves state-of-the-art object perception performance. On benchmarks like COCO and LVIS, Rex-Omni attains performance comparable to or exceeding regression-based models (e.g., DINO, Grounding DINO) in a zero-shot setting. This is enabled by three key designs: 1) Task Formulation: we use special tokens to represent quantized coordinates from 0 to 999, reducing the model's learning difficulty and improving token efficiency for coordinate prediction; 2) Data Engines: we construct multiple data engines to generate high-quality grounding, referring, and pointing data, providing semantically rich supervision for training; \3) Training Pipelines: we employ a two-stage training process, combining supervised fine-tuning on 22 million data with GRPO-based reinforcement post-training. This RL post-training leverages geometry-aware rewards to effectively bridge the discrete-to-continuous coordinate prediction gap, improve box accuracy, and mitigate undesirable behaviors like duplicate predictions that stem from the teacher-guided nature of the initial SFT stage. Beyond conventional detection, Rex-Omni's inherent language understanding enables versatile capabilities such as object referring, pointing, visual prompting, GUI grounding, spatial referring, OCR and key-pointing, all systematically evaluated on dedicated benchmarks. We believe that Rex-Omni paves the way for more versatile and language-aware visual perception systems.

Fine-tuning continuous prompts for target tasks has recently emerged as a compact alternative to full model fine-tuning. Motivated by these promising results, we investigate the feasibility of extracting a discrete (textual) interpretation of continuous prompts that is faithful to the problem they solve. In practice, we observe a "wayward" behavior between the task solved by continuous prompts and their nearest neighbor discrete projections: We can find continuous prompts that solve a task while being projected to an arbitrary text (e.g., definition of a different or even a contradictory task), while being within a very small (2%) margin of the best continuous prompt of the same size for the task. We provide intuitions behind this odd and surprising behavior, as well as extensive empirical analyses quantifying the effect of various parameters. For instance, for larger model sizes we observe higher waywardness, i.e, we can find prompts that more closely map to any arbitrary text with a smaller drop in accuracy. These findings have important implications relating to the difficulty of faithfully interpreting continuous prompts and their generalization across models and tasks, providing guidance for future progress in prompting language models.

Dense prediction tasks, such as semantic segmentation, depth estimation, and surface normal prediction, can be easily formulated as per-pixel classification (discrete outputs) or regression (continuous outputs). This per-pixel prediction paradigm has remained popular due to the prevalence of fully convolutional networks. However, on the recent frontier of segmentation task, the community has been witnessing a shift of paradigm from per-pixel prediction to cluster-prediction with the emergence of transformer architectures, particularly the mask transformers, which directly predicts a label for a mask instead of a pixel. Despite this shift, methods based on the per-pixel prediction paradigm still dominate the benchmarks on the other dense prediction tasks that require continuous outputs, such as depth estimation and surface normal prediction. Motivated by the success of DORN and AdaBins in depth estimation, achieved by discretizing the continuous output space, we propose to generalize the cluster-prediction based method to general dense prediction tasks. This allows us to unify dense prediction tasks with the mask transformer framework. Remarkably, the resulting model PolyMaX demonstrates state-of-the-art performance on three benchmarks of NYUD-v2 dataset. We hope our simple yet effective design can inspire more research on exploiting mask transformers for more dense prediction tasks. Code and model will be made available.

Continuous convolution has recently gained prominence due to its ability to handle irregularly sampled data and model long-term dependency. Also, the promising experimental results of using large convolutional kernels have catalyzed the development of continuous convolution since they can construct large kernels very efficiently. Leveraging neural networks, more specifically multilayer perceptrons (MLPs), is by far the most prevalent approach to implementing continuous convolution. However, there are a few drawbacks, such as high computational costs, complex hyperparameter tuning, and limited descriptive power of filters. This paper suggests an alternative approach to building a continuous convolution without neural networks, resulting in more computationally efficient and improved performance. We present self-moving point representations where weight parameters freely move, and interpolation schemes are used to implement continuous functions. When applied to construct convolutional kernels, the experimental results have shown improved performance with drop-in replacement in the existing frameworks. Due to its lightweight structure, we are first to demonstrate the effectiveness of continuous convolution in a large-scale setting, e.g., ImageNet, presenting the improvements over the prior arts. Our code is available on https://github.com/sangnekim/SMPConv

We study the problem of predicting numeric labels that are constrained to the integers or to a subrange of the integers. For example, the number of up-votes on social media posts, or the number of bicycles available at a public rental station. While it is possible to model these as continuous values, and to apply traditional regression, this approach changes the underlying distribution on the labels from discrete to continuous. Discrete distributions have certain benefits, which leads us to the question whether such integer labels can be modeled directly by a discrete distribution, whose parameters are predicted from the features of a given instance. Moreover, we focus on the use case of output distributions of neural networks, which adds the requirement that the parameters of the distribution be continuous so that backpropagation and gradient descent may be used to learn the weights of the network. We investigate several options for such distributions, some existing and some novel, and test them on a range of tasks, including tabular learning, sequential prediction and image generation. We find that overall the best performance comes from two distributions: Bitwise, which represents the target integer in bits and places a Bernoulli distribution on each, and a discrete analogue of the Laplace distribution, which uses a distribution with exponentially decaying tails around a continuous mean.

With the success of pretraining techniques in representation learning, a number of continual learning methods based on pretrained models have been proposed. Some of these methods design continual learning mechanisms on the pre-trained representations and only allow minimum updates or even no updates of the backbone models during the training of continual learning. In this paper, we question whether the complexity of these models is needed to achieve good performance by comparing them to a simple baseline that we designed. We argue that the pretrained feature extractor itself can be strong enough to achieve a competitive or even better continual learning performance on Split-CIFAR100 and CoRe 50 benchmarks. To validate this, we conduct a very simple baseline that 1) use the frozen pretrained model to extract image features for every class encountered during the continual learning stage and compute their corresponding mean features on training data, and 2) predict the class of the input based on the nearest neighbor distance between test samples and mean features of the classes; i.e., Nearest Mean Classifier (NMC). This baseline is single-headed, exemplar-free, and can be task-free (by updating the means continually). This baseline achieved 88.53% on 10-Split-CIFAR-100, surpassing most state-of-the-art continual learning methods that are all initialized using the same pretrained transformer model. We hope our baseline may encourage future progress in designing learning systems that can continually add quality to the learning representations even if they started from some pretrained weights.

We present a meta-learning framework for learning new visual concepts quickly, from just one or a few examples, guided by multiple naturally occurring data streams: simultaneously looking at images, reading sentences that describe the objects in the scene, and interpreting supplemental sentences that relate the novel concept with other concepts. The learned concepts support downstream applications, such as answering questions by reasoning about unseen images. Our model, namely FALCON, represents individual visual concepts, such as colors and shapes, as axis-aligned boxes in a high-dimensional space (the "box embedding space"). Given an input image and its paired sentence, our model first resolves the referential expression in the sentence and associates the novel concept with particular objects in the scene. Next, our model interprets supplemental sentences to relate the novel concept with other known concepts, such as "X has property Y" or "X is a kind of Y". Finally, it infers an optimal box embedding for the novel concept that jointly 1) maximizes the likelihood of the observed instances in the image, and 2) satisfies the relationships between the novel concepts and the known ones. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our model on both synthetic and real-world datasets.

Discovering novel concepts in unlabelled datasets and in a continuous manner is an important desideratum of lifelong learners. In the literature such problems have been partially addressed under very restricted settings, where novel classes are learned by jointly accessing a related labelled set (e.g., NCD) or by leveraging only a supervisedly pre-trained model (e.g., class-iNCD). In this work we challenge the status quo in class-iNCD and propose a learning paradigm where class discovery occurs continuously and truly unsupervisedly, without needing any related labelled set. In detail, we propose to exploit the richer priors from strong self-supervised pre-trained models (PTM). To this end, we propose simple baselines, composed of a frozen PTM backbone and a learnable linear classifier, that are not only simple to implement but also resilient under longer learning scenarios. We conduct extensive empirical evaluation on a multitude of benchmarks and show the effectiveness of our proposed baselines when compared with sophisticated state-of-the-art methods. The code is open source.

We introduce a boosting algorithm to pre-process data for fairness. Starting from an initial fair but inaccurate distribution, our approach shifts towards better data fitting while still ensuring a minimal fairness guarantee. To do so, it learns the sufficient statistics of an exponential family with boosting-compliant convergence. Importantly, we are able to theoretically prove that the learned distribution will have a representation rate and statistical rate data fairness guarantee. Unlike recent optimization based pre-processing methods, our approach can be easily adapted for continuous domain features. Furthermore, when the weak learners are specified to be decision trees, the sufficient statistics of the learned distribution can be examined to provide clues on sources of (un)fairness. Empirical results are present to display the quality of result on real-world data.

Regression, the task of predicting a continuous scalar target y based on some features x is one of the most fundamental tasks in machine learning and statistics. It has been observed and theoretically analyzed that the classical approach, meansquared error minimization, can lead to suboptimal results when training neural networks. In this work, we propose a new method to improve the training of these models on regression tasks, with continuous scalar targets. Our method is based on casting this task in a different fashion, using a target encoder, and a prediction decoder, inspired by approaches in classification and clustering. We showcase the performance of our method on a wide range of real-world datasets.

Forecasting has become a natural benchmark for reasoning under uncertainty. Yet existing evaluations of large language models remain limited to judgmental tasks in simple formats, such as binary or multiple-choice questions. In practice, however, forecasting spans a far broader scope. Across domains such as economics, public health, and social demographics, decisions hinge on numerical estimates over continuous quantities, a capability that current benchmarks do not capture. Evaluating such estimates requires a format that makes uncertainty explicit and testable. We propose prediction intervals as a natural and rigorous interface for this purpose. They demand scale awareness, internal consistency across confidence levels, and calibration over a continuum of outcomes, making them a more suitable evaluation format than point estimates for numerical forecasting. To assess this capability, we introduce a new benchmark QuantSightBench, and evaluate frontier models under multiple settings, assessing both empirical coverage and interval sharpness. Our results show that none of the 11 evaluated frontier and open-weight models achieves the 90\% coverage target, with the top performers Gemini 3.1 Pro (79.1\%), Grok 4 (76.4\%), and GPT-5.4 (75.3\%) all falling at least 10 percentage points short. Calibration degrades sharply at extreme magnitudes, revealing systematic overconfidence across all evaluated models.

Given a textual phrase and an image, the visual grounding problem is the task of locating the content of the image referenced by the sentence. It is a challenging task that has several real-world applications in human-computer interaction, image-text reference resolution, and video-text reference resolution. In the last years, several works have addressed this problem by proposing more and more large and complex models that try to capture visual-textual dependencies better than before. These models are typically constituted by two main components that focus on how to learn useful multi-modal features for grounding and how to improve the predicted bounding box of the visual mention, respectively. Finding the right learning balance between these two sub-tasks is not easy, and the current models are not necessarily optimal with respect to this issue. In this work, we propose a loss function based on bounding boxes classes probabilities that: (i) improves the bounding boxes selection; (ii) improves the bounding boxes coordinates prediction. Our model, although using a simple multi-modal feature fusion component, is able to achieve a higher accuracy than state-of-the-art models on two widely adopted datasets, reaching a better learning balance between the two sub-tasks mentioned above.

Performant Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) architectures must be tailored to specific tasks in order to consider the length, resolution, and dimensionality of the input data. In this work, we tackle the need for problem-specific CNN architectures. We present the Continuous Convolutional Neural Network (CCNN): a single CNN able to process data of arbitrary resolution, dimensionality and length without any structural changes. Its key component are its continuous convolutional kernels which model long-range dependencies at every layer, and thus remove the need of current CNN architectures for task-dependent downsampling and depths. We showcase the generality of our method by using the same architecture for tasks on sequential (1{rm D}), visual (2{rm D}) and point-cloud (3{rm D}) data. Our CCNN matches and often outperforms the current state-of-the-art across all tasks considered.

Different from Object Detection, Visual Grounding deals with detecting a bounding box for each text-image pair. This one box for each text-image data provides sparse supervision signals. Although previous works achieve impressive results, their passive utilization of annotation, i.e. the sole use of the box annotation as regression ground truth, results in a suboptimal performance. In this paper, we present SegVG, a novel method transfers the box-level annotation as Segmentation signals to provide an additional pixel-level supervision for Visual Grounding. Specifically, we propose the Multi-layer Multi-task Encoder-Decoder as the target grounding stage, where we learn a regression query and multiple segmentation queries to ground the target by regression and segmentation of the box in each decoding layer, respectively. This approach allows us to iteratively exploit the annotation as signals for both box-level regression and pixel-level segmentation. Moreover, as the backbones are typically initialized by pretrained parameters learned from unimodal tasks and the queries for both regression and segmentation are static learnable embeddings, a domain discrepancy remains among these three types of features, which impairs subsequent target grounding. To mitigate this discrepancy, we introduce the Triple Alignment module, where the query, text, and vision tokens are triangularly updated to share the same space by triple attention mechanism. Extensive experiments on five widely used datasets validate our state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance.

The use of continuous instead of discrete tokens during the Chain-of-Thought (CoT) phase of reasoning LLMs has garnered attention recently, based on the intuition that a continuous mixture of discrete tokens could simulate a superposition of several reasoning paths simultaneously. Theoretical results have formally proven that continuous tokens have much greater expressivity and can solve specific problems more efficiently. However, practical use of continuous tokens has been limited by strong training difficulties: previous works either just use continuous tokens at inference time on a pre-trained discrete-token model, or must distill the continuous CoT from ground-truth discrete CoTs and face computational costs that limit the CoT to very few tokens. This is the first work introducing a scalable method to learn continuous CoTs via reinforcement learning (RL), without distilling from reference discrete CoTs. We use "soft" tokens: mixtures of tokens together with noise on the input embedding to provide RL exploration. Computational overhead is minimal, enabling us to learn continuous CoTs with hundreds of tokens. On math reasoning benchmarks with Llama and Qwen models up to 8B, training with continuous CoTs match discrete-token CoTs for pass@1 and surpass them for pass@32, showing greater CoT diversity. In systematic comparisons, the best-performing scenario is to train with continuous CoT tokens then use discrete tokens for inference, meaning the "soft" models can be deployed in a standard way. Finally, we show continuous CoT RL training better preserves the predictions of the base model on out-of-domain tasks, thus providing a softer touch to the base model.

Oriented object detection emerges in many applications from aerial images to autonomous driving, while many existing detection benchmarks are annotated with horizontal bounding box only which is also less costive than fine-grained rotated box, leading to a gap between the readily available training corpus and the rising demand for oriented object detection. This paper proposes a simple yet effective oriented object detection approach called H2RBox merely using horizontal box annotation for weakly-supervised training, which closes the above gap and shows competitive performance even against those trained with rotated boxes. The cores of our method are weakly- and self-supervised learning, which predicts the angle of the object by learning the consistency of two different views. To our best knowledge, H2RBox is the first horizontal box annotation-based oriented object detector. Compared to an alternative i.e. horizontal box-supervised instance segmentation with our post adaption to oriented object detection, our approach is not susceptible to the prediction quality of mask and can perform more robustly in complex scenes containing a large number of dense objects and outliers. Experimental results show that H2RBox has significant performance and speed advantages over horizontal box-supervised instance segmentation methods, as well as lower memory requirements. While compared to rotated box-supervised oriented object detectors, our method shows very close performance and speed. The source code is available at PyTorch-based https://github.com/yangxue0827/h2rbox-mmrotate{MMRotate} and Jittor-based https://github.com/yangxue0827/h2rbox-jittor{JDet}.

Continuous-valued Autoregressive (AR) image generation models have demonstrated notable superiority over their discrete-token counterparts, showcasing considerable reconstruction quality and higher generation fidelity. However, the computational demands of the autoregressive framework result in significant inference overhead. While speculative decoding has proven effective in accelerating Large Language Models (LLMs), their adaptation to continuous-valued visual autoregressive models remains unexplored. This work generalizes the speculative decoding algorithm from discrete tokens to continuous space. By analyzing the intrinsic properties of output distribution, we establish a tailored acceptance criterion for the diffusion distributions prevalent in such models. To overcome the inconsistency that occurred in speculative decoding output distributions, we introduce denoising trajectory alignment and token pre-filling methods. Additionally, we identify the hard-to-sample distribution in the rejection phase. To mitigate this issue, we propose a meticulous acceptance-rejection sampling method with a proper upper bound, thereby circumventing complex integration. Experimental results show that our continuous speculative decoding achieves a remarkable 2.33times speed-up on off-the-shelf models while maintaining the output distribution. Codes will be available at https://github.com/MarkXCloud/CSpD

Continuous perception, the ability to integrate visual observations over time in a continuous stream fashion, is essential for robust real-world understanding, yet remains largely untested in current multimodal models. We introduce CP-Bench, a minimal and fully controlled benchmark designed to isolate this capability using an extremely simple task: counting identical cubes in a synthetic scene while the camera moves and only reveals subsets of objects at any moment. Despite the simplicity of the setting, we find that state-of-the-art open-source and commercial models, including Qwen-3-VL, InternVL3, GPT-5, and Gemini-3-Pro, fail dramatically. A static-camera control variant confirms that the failure arises not from object recognition but from an inability to accumulate evidence across time. Further experiments show that neither higher sampling FPS, perception- or spatial-enhanced models, nor finetuning with additional videos leads to meaningful cross-temporal generalization. Our results reveal a fundamental limitation in modern multimodal architectures and training paradigms. CP-Bench provides a simple yet powerful diagnostic tool and establishes a clean testbed for developing models capable of genuine time-consistent visual reasoning.

While improving prediction accuracy has been the focus of machine learning in recent years, this alone does not suffice for reliable decision-making. Deploying learning systems in consequential settings also requires calibrating and communicating the uncertainty of predictions. To convey instance-wise uncertainty for prediction tasks, we show how to generate set-valued predictions from a black-box predictor that control the expected loss on future test points at a user-specified level. Our approach provides explicit finite-sample guarantees for any dataset by using a holdout set to calibrate the size of the prediction sets. This framework enables simple, distribution-free, rigorous error control for many tasks, and we demonstrate it in five large-scale machine learning problems: (1) classification problems where some mistakes are more costly than others; (2) multi-label classification, where each observation has multiple associated labels; (3) classification problems where the labels have a hierarchical structure; (4) image segmentation, where we wish to predict a set of pixels containing an object of interest; and (5) protein structure prediction. Lastly, we discuss extensions to uncertainty quantification for ranking, metric learning and distributionally robust learning.

Modern learning frameworks often train deep neural networks with massive amounts of unlabeled data to learn representations by solving simple pretext tasks, then use the representations as foundations for downstream tasks. These networks are empirically designed; as such, they are usually not interpretable, their representations are not structured, and their designs are potentially redundant. White-box deep networks, in which each layer explicitly identifies and transforms structures in the data, present a promising alternative. However, existing white-box architectures have only been shown to work at scale in supervised settings with labeled data, such as classification. In this work, we provide the first instantiation of the white-box design paradigm that can be applied to large-scale unsupervised representation learning. We do this by exploiting a fundamental connection between diffusion, compression, and (masked) completion, deriving a deep transformer-like masked autoencoder architecture, called CRATE-MAE, in which the role of each layer is mathematically fully interpretable: they transform the data distribution to and from a structured representation. Extensive empirical evaluations confirm our analytical insights. CRATE-MAE demonstrates highly promising performance on large-scale imagery datasets while using only ~30% of the parameters compared to the standard masked autoencoder with the same model configuration. The representations learned by CRATE-MAE have explicit structure and also contain semantic meaning. Code is available at https://github.com/Ma-Lab-Berkeley/CRATE .

Real-world regression often exhibits shortcuts: attributes that are spuriously correlated with continuous targets in training, yet unreliable under deployment shifts; regressing targets using such shortcuts may fail catastrophically at test time. Existing studies on spurious correlations focus primarily on classification, where labels are categorical and groups are naturally defined. However, many real-world tasks require continuous prediction, where hard label boundaries or discrete group-label pairs do not exist. We define Deep Spurious Regression (DSR) as learning from regression data with attribute-label confounding, addressing continuous spurious correlations, and generalizing to all attribute-label combinations at test time. Motivated by the intrinsic difference between classification and regression shortcuts, we propose to exploit the similarity among spurious attributes in both label and feature spaces, thereby accounting for nearby targets and related groups while calibrating both label and learned feature distributions across attributes. Extensive experiments on common real-world DSR datasets that span computer vision, environmental sensing, and large language model (LLM) regression verify the superior performance of our strategies. Our work fills the gap in benchmarks and techniques for studying spurious correlations in continuous prediction.

Most text-based information retrieval (IR) systems index objects by words or phrases. These discrete systems have been augmented by models that use embeddings to measure similarity in continuous space. But continuous-space models are typically used just to re-rank the top candidates. We consider the problem of end-to-end continuous retrieval, where standard approximate nearest neighbor (ANN) search replaces the usual discrete inverted index, and rely entirely on distances between learned embeddings. By training simple models specifically for retrieval, with an appropriate model architecture, we improve on a discrete baseline by 8% and 26% (MAP) on two similar-question retrieval tasks. We also discuss the problem of evaluation for retrieval systems, and show how to modify existing pairwise similarity datasets for this purpose.

With the rapidly increasing demand for oriented object detection (OOD), recent research involving weakly-supervised detectors for learning rotated box (RBox) from the horizontal box (HBox) has attracted more and more attention. In this paper, we explore a more challenging yet label-efficient setting, namely single point-supervised OOD, and present our approach called Point2RBox. Specifically, we propose to leverage two principles: 1) Synthetic pattern knowledge combination: By sampling around each labeled point on the image, we spread the object feature to synthetic visual patterns with known boxes to provide the knowledge for box regression. 2) Transform self-supervision: With a transformed input image (e.g. scaled/rotated), the output RBoxes are trained to follow the same transformation so that the network can perceive the relative size/rotation between objects. The detector is further enhanced by a few devised techniques to cope with peripheral issues, e.g. the anchor/layer assignment as the size of the object is not available in our point supervision setting. To our best knowledge, Point2RBox is the first end-to-end solution for point-supervised OOD. In particular, our method uses a lightweight paradigm, yet it achieves a competitive performance among point-supervised alternatives, 41.05%/27.62%/80.01% on DOTA/DIOR/HRSC datasets.

The proliferation of open-source Large Language Models (LLMs) underscores the pressing need for evaluation methods. Existing works primarily rely on external evaluators, focusing on training and prompting strategies. However, a crucial aspect - model-aware glass-box features - is overlooked. In this study, we explore the utility of glass-box features under the scenario of self-evaluation, namely applying an LLM to evaluate its own output. We investigate various glass-box feature groups and discovered that the softmax distribution serves as a reliable indicator for quality evaluation. Furthermore, we propose two strategies to enhance the evaluation by incorporating features derived from references. Experimental results on public benchmarks validate the feasibility of self-evaluation of LLMs using glass-box features.

Continuous Bag of Words (CBOW) is a powerful text embedding method. Due to its strong capabilities to encode word content, CBOW embeddings perform well on a wide range of downstream tasks while being efficient to compute. However, CBOW is not capable of capturing the word order. The reason is that the computation of CBOW's word embeddings is commutative, i.e., embeddings of XYZ and ZYX are the same. In order to address this shortcoming, we propose a learning algorithm for the Continuous Matrix Space Model, which we call Continual Multiplication of Words (CMOW). Our algorithm is an adaptation of word2vec, so that it can be trained on large quantities of unlabeled text. We empirically show that CMOW better captures linguistic properties, but it is inferior to CBOW in memorizing word content. Motivated by these findings, we propose a hybrid model that combines the strengths of CBOW and CMOW. Our results show that the hybrid CBOW-CMOW-model retains CBOW's strong ability to memorize word content while at the same time substantially improving its ability to encode other linguistic information by 8%. As a result, the hybrid also performs better on 8 out of 11 supervised downstream tasks with an average improvement of 1.2%.

Click-through prediction (CTR) models transform features into latent vectors and enumerate possible feature interactions to improve performance based on the input feature set. Therefore, when selecting an optimal feature set, we should consider the influence of both feature and its interaction. However, most previous works focus on either feature field selection or only select feature interaction based on the fixed feature set to produce the feature set. The former restricts search space to the feature field, which is too coarse to determine subtle features. They also do not filter useless feature interactions, leading to higher computation costs and degraded model performance. The latter identifies useful feature interaction from all available features, resulting in many redundant features in the feature set. In this paper, we propose a novel method named OptFS to address these problems. To unify the selection of feature and its interaction, we decompose the selection of each feature interaction into the selection of two correlated features. Such a decomposition makes the model end-to-end trainable given various feature interaction operations. By adopting feature-level search space, we set a learnable gate to determine whether each feature should be within the feature set. Because of the large-scale search space, we develop a learning-by-continuation training scheme to learn such gates. Hence, OptFS generates the feature set only containing features which improve the final prediction results. Experimentally, we evaluate OptFS on three public datasets, demonstrating OptFS can optimize feature sets which enhance the model performance and further reduce both the storage and computational cost.

Graphical User Interface (GUI) grounding maps natural language instructions to precise interface locations for autonomous interaction. Current reinforcement learning approaches use binary rewards that treat elements as hit-or-miss targets, creating sparse signals that ignore the continuous nature of spatial interactions. Motivated by human clicking behavior that naturally forms Gaussian distributions centered on target elements, we introduce GUI Gaussian Grounding Rewards (GUI-G^2), a principled reward framework that models GUI elements as continuous Gaussian distributions across the interface plane. GUI-G^2 incorporates two synergistic mechanisms: Gaussian point rewards model precise localization through exponentially decaying distributions centered on element centroids, while coverage rewards assess spatial alignment by measuring the overlap between predicted Gaussian distributions and target regions. To handle diverse element scales, we develop an adaptive variance mechanism that calibrates reward distributions based on element dimensions. This framework transforms GUI grounding from sparse binary classification to dense continuous optimization, where Gaussian distributions generate rich gradient signals that guide models toward optimal interaction positions. Extensive experiments across ScreenSpot, ScreenSpot-v2, and ScreenSpot-Pro benchmarks demonstrate that GUI-G^2, substantially outperforms state-of-the-art method UI-TARS-72B, with the most significant improvement of 24.7% on ScreenSpot-Pro. Our analysis reveals that continuous modeling provides superior robustness to interface variations and enhanced generalization to unseen layouts, establishing a new paradigm for spatial reasoning in GUI interaction tasks.

This paper challenges the dominance of continuous pipelines in visual generation. We systematically investigate the performance gap between discrete and continuous methods. Contrary to the belief that discrete tokenizers are intrinsically inferior, we demonstrate that the disparity arises primarily from the total number of bits allocated in the latent space (i.e., the compression ratio). We show that scaling up the codebook size effectively bridges this gap, allowing discrete tokenizers to match or surpass their continuous counterparts. However, existing discrete generation methods struggle to capitalize on this insight, suffering from performance degradation or prohibitive training costs with scaled codebook. To address this, we propose masked Bit AutoRegressive modeling (BAR), a scalable framework that supports arbitrary codebook sizes. By equipping an autoregressive transformer with a masked bit modeling head, BAR predicts discrete tokens through progressively generating their constituent bits. BAR achieves a new state-of-the-art gFID of 0.99 on ImageNet-256, outperforming leading methods across both continuous and discrete paradigms, while significantly reducing sampling costs and converging faster than prior continuous approaches. Project page is available at https://bar-gen.github.io/

Continuous Chain-of-Thought methods replace verbose reasoning traces with a short sequence of dense latent representations. Earlier continuous CoT methods indirectly supervise the latent representations such that its final state match that of verbose reasoning traces, requiring autoregressive, slow generation during training. We introduce C-MTP, a simpler, faster direct supervision approach that models each latent as an average of the embeddings in the CoT traces to be compressed. Our approach outperforms a prior direct supervision method that approximates the distribution of compressed tokens, and performs competitively to slower indirect supervision approaches in existing evaluation setup with simplified CoT traces (less than 100 tokens). Lastly, we extend the evaluation of Continuous CoT methods to complex tasks with longer reasoning traces (ge few hundreds reasoning tokens). We find both direct and indirect supervision training methods perform poorly (roughly 65\% performance drop) in this setting, revealing the limitations of current continuous CoT methods. The code and checkpoints are released at https://github.com/Varun221/cmtp_research

Next token prediction has been the standard training objective used in large language model pretraining. Representations are learned as a result of optimizing for token-level perplexity. We propose Continuous Concept Mixing (CoCoMix), a novel pretraining framework that combines discrete next token prediction with continuous concepts. Specifically, CoCoMix predicts continuous concepts learned from a pretrained sparse autoencoder and mixes them into the model's hidden state by interleaving with token hidden representations. Through experiments on multiple benchmarks, including language modeling and downstream reasoning tasks, we show that CoCoMix is more sample efficient and consistently outperforms standard next token prediction, knowledge distillation and inserting pause tokens. We find that combining both concept learning and interleaving in an end-to-end framework is critical to performance gains. Furthermore, CoCoMix enhances interpretability and steerability by allowing direct inspection and modification of the predicted concept, offering a transparent way to guide the model's internal reasoning process.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have recently been successfully applied to regression tasks -- such as time series forecasting and tabular prediction -- by leveraging their in-context learning abilities. However, their autoregressive decoding process may be ill-suited to continuous-valued outputs, where obtaining predictive distributions over numerical targets requires repeated sampling, leading to high computational cost and inference time. In this work, we investigate whether distributional properties of LLM predictions can be recovered without explicit autoregressive generation. To this end, we study a set of regression probes trained to predict statistical functionals (e.g., mean, median, quantiles) of the LLM's numerical output distribution directly from its internal representations. Our results suggest that LLM embeddings carry informative signals about summary statistics of their predictive distributions, including the numerical uncertainty. This investigation opens up new questions about how LLMs internally encode uncertainty in numerical tasks, and about the feasibility of lightweight alternatives to sampling-based approaches for uncertainty-aware numerical predictions.

We introduce a new family of deep neural network models. Instead of specifying a discrete sequence of hidden layers, we parameterize the derivative of the hidden state using a neural network. The output of the network is computed using a black-box differential equation solver. These continuous-depth models have constant memory cost, adapt their evaluation strategy to each input, and can explicitly trade numerical precision for speed. We demonstrate these properties in continuous-depth residual networks and continuous-time latent variable models. We also construct continuous normalizing flows, a generative model that can train by maximum likelihood, without partitioning or ordering the data dimensions. For training, we show how to scalably backpropagate through any ODE solver, without access to its internal operations. This allows end-to-end training of ODEs within larger models.

Promptable segmentation models such as SAM have established a powerful paradigm, enabling strong generalization to unseen objects and domains with minimal user input, including points, bounding boxes, and text prompts. Among these, bounding boxes stand out as particularly effective, often outperforming points while significantly reducing annotation costs. However, current training and evaluation protocols typically rely on synthetic prompts generated through simple heuristics, offering limited insight into real-world robustness. In this paper, we investigate the robustness of promptable segmentation models to natural variations in bounding box prompts. First, we conduct a controlled user study and collect thousands of real bounding box annotations. Our analysis reveals substantial variability in segmentation quality across users for the same model and instance, indicating that SAM-like models are highly sensitive to natural prompt noise. Then, since exhaustive testing of all possible user inputs is computationally prohibitive, we reformulate robustness evaluation as a white-box optimization problem over the bounding box prompt space. We introduce BREPS, a method for generating adversarial bounding boxes that minimize or maximize segmentation error while adhering to naturalness constraints. Finally, we benchmark state-of-the-art models across 10 datasets, spanning everyday scenes to medical imaging. Code - https://github.com/emb-ai/BREPS.

We introduce TFRBench, the first benchmark designed to evaluate the reasoning capabilities of forecasting systems. Traditionally, time-series forecasting has been evaluated solely on numerical accuracy, treating foundation models as ``black boxes.'' Unlike existing benchmarks, TFRBench provides a protocol for evaluating the reasoning generated by forecasting systems--specifically their analysis of cross-channel dependencies, trends, and external events. To enable this, we propose a systematic multi-agent framework that utilizes an iterative verification loop to synthesize numerically grounded reasoning traces. Spanning ten datasets across five domains, our evaluation confirms that this reasoning is causally effective; useful for evaluation; and prompting LLMs with our generated traces significantly improves forecasting accuracy compared to direct numerical prediction (e.g., avg. sim40.2%to56.6%), validating the quality of our reasoning. Conversely, benchmarking experiments reveal that off-the-shelf LLMs consistently struggle with both reasoning (lower LLM-as-a-Judge scores) and numerical forecasting, frequently failing to capture domain-specific dynamics. TFRBench thus establishes a new standard for interpretable, reasoning-based evaluation in time-series forecasting. Our benchmark is available at: https://tfrbench.github.io

Although RDBs store vast amounts of rich, informative data spread across interconnected tables, the progress of predictive machine learning models as applied to such tasks arguably falls well behind advances in other domains such as computer vision or natural language processing. This deficit stems, at least in part, from the lack of established/public RDB benchmarks as needed for training and evaluation purposes. As a result, related model development thus far often defaults to tabular approaches trained on ubiquitous single-table benchmarks, or on the relational side, graph-based alternatives such as GNNs applied to a completely different set of graph datasets devoid of tabular characteristics. To more precisely target RDBs lying at the nexus of these two complementary regimes, we explore a broad class of baseline models predicated on: (i) converting multi-table datasets into graphs using various strategies equipped with efficient subsampling, while preserving tabular characteristics; and (ii) trainable models with well-matched inductive biases that output predictions based on these input subgraphs. Then, to address the dearth of suitable public benchmarks and reduce siloed comparisons, we assemble a diverse collection of (i) large-scale RDB datasets and (ii) coincident predictive tasks. From a delivery standpoint, we operationalize the above four dimensions (4D) of exploration within a unified, scalable open-source toolbox called 4DBInfer. We conclude by presenting evaluations using 4DBInfer, the results of which highlight the importance of considering each such dimension in the design of RDB predictive models, as well as the limitations of more naive approaches such as simply joining adjacent tables. Our source code is released at https://github.com/awslabs/multi-table-benchmark .

How to accurately predict a high-fidelity future world? While the visual world is inherently continuous, existing deterministic video prediction models operate in discrete pixel space and are mainly optimized with pixel-wise mean squared error (MSE), which often leads to over-smoothed predictions and a lack of fine-grained visual details. To address these limitations, we propose Predictive Differentiable Rendering (PDR), a novel end-to-end video prediction paradigm that bridges the gap between discrete and continuous representations. Inspired by recent progress in 3D reconstruction with 3D Gaussian Splatting, we introduce PredGS, a lightweight and plug-and-play adapter based on 2D Gaussian representation, which could be seamlessly integrated with existing pixel space predictors, significantly improving spatial detail preservation with negligible computational overhead. Furthermore, we develop predgsplat, a CUDA-accelerated differentiable 2D Gaussian renderer supporting arbitrary channels. Each Gaussian is defined by 5 + C learnable parameters (position, scale, rotation, and C channel amplitudes) and achieves up to 10x faster rendering than the baseline. Optimized by a combined L1 and SSIM loss, PDR overcomes the inherent blurring tendencies of MSE Loss, significantly enhancing the prediction performance. Extensive experiments on diverse real-world benchmarks, including TaxiBJ, WeatherBench, KTH, and Human3.6M, demonstrate that PDR consistently surpasses existing methods, delivering superior detail preservation, visual fidelity, and predictive accuracy.

We introduce \`A-la-carte Prompt Tuning (APT), a transformer-based scheme to tune prompts on distinct data so that they can be arbitrarily composed at inference time. The individual prompts can be trained in isolation, possibly on different devices, at different times, and on different distributions or domains. Furthermore each prompt only contains information about the subset of data it was exposed to during training. During inference, models can be assembled based on arbitrary selections of data sources, which we call "\`a-la-carte learning". \`A-la-carte learning enables constructing bespoke models specific to each user's individual access rights and preferences. We can add or remove information from the model by simply adding or removing the corresponding prompts without retraining from scratch. We demonstrate that \`a-la-carte built models achieve accuracy within 5% of models trained on the union of the respective sources, with comparable cost in terms of training and inference time. For the continual learning benchmarks Split CIFAR-100 and CORe50, we achieve state-of-the-art performance.

GUI grounding, which translates natural language instructions into precise pixel coordinates, is essential for developing practical GUI agents. However, we observe that existing grounding models exhibit significant coordinate prediction instability, minor visual perturbations (e.g. cropping a few pixels) can drastically alter predictions, flipping results between correct and incorrect. This instability severely undermines model performance, especially for samples with high-resolution and small UI elements. To address this issue, we propose Multi-View Prediction (MVP), a training-free framework that enhances grounding performance through multi-view inference. Our key insight is that while single-view predictions may be unstable, aggregating predictions from multiple carefully cropped views can effectively distinguish correct coordinates from outliers. MVP comprises two components: (1) Attention-Guided View Proposal, which derives diverse views guided by instruction-to-image attention scores, and (2) Multi-Coordinates Clustering, which ensembles predictions by selecting the centroid of the densest spatial cluster. Extensive experiments demonstrate MVP's effectiveness across various models and benchmarks. Notably, on ScreenSpot-Pro, MVP boosts UI-TARS-1.5-7B to 56.1%, GTA1-7B to 61.7%, Qwen3VL-8B-Instruct to 65.3%, and Qwen3VL-32B-Instruct to 74.0%. The code is available at https://github.com/ZJUSCL/MVP.

In the realm of artificial intelligence, where a vast majority of data is unstructured, obtaining substantial amounts of labeled data to train supervised machine learning models poses a significant challenge. To address this, we delve into few-shot and active learning, where are goal is to improve AI models with human feedback on a few labeled examples. This paper focuses on understanding how a continuous feedback loop can refine models, thereby enhancing their accuracy, recall, and precision through incremental human input. By employing Large Language Models (LLMs) such as GPT-3.5, BERT, and SetFit, we aim to analyze the efficacy of using a limited number of labeled examples to substantially improve model accuracy. We benchmark this approach on the Financial Phrasebank, Banking, Craigslist, Trec, Amazon Reviews datasets to prove that with just a few labeled examples, we are able to surpass the accuracy of zero shot large language models to provide enhanced text classification performance. We demonstrate that rather than needing to manually label millions of rows of data, we just need to label a few and the model can effectively predict the rest.

A login screen that appears after a tap on Sign in is expected; the same screen after a tap on View order is an attack. For GUI agents, safety is therefore a property of the transition rather than of the screen, and a monitor that inspects only screens can be defeated by reusing a legitimate one. Judging a transition requires an expectation of what should have followed the action. Existing GUI world models provide one, but they output it as text, code, or images, so checking it against the observed screen requires a second model to judge the two. We argue that a world model meant for verification should instead predict in the space in which observations are encoded, and present LGWM, a decoder-free, action-conditioned world model that predicts the representation of the next screen directly, trained without semantic annotation on 1.85M real GUI transitions. Verification reduces to a vector comparison, and the same signal reveals whether a mismatch is harmful. We evaluate on RSWT-BENCH, a diagnostic where each credential screen appears under both a legitimate and a hijacked transition, so detectors that see only the screen are at chance by construction. The training-free score reaches 0.987 AUC at 17 ms per decision, on par with the strongest closed-source VLMs and about ten AUC points above generative GUI world models at over three orders of magnitude lower latency. The residual direction reaches 0.953 AUC at separating harmful from benign violations, where prompted VLMs are near chance. Further analyses show that the prediction is a usable future state rather than an anomaly score. World models have mostly served as simulators or planners; our results point to a third role, verification, for which predicting in representation space is the natural design.

Predicting not only the target but also an accurate measure of uncertainty is important for many machine learning applications and in particular safety-critical ones. In this work we study the calibration of uncertainty prediction for regression tasks which often arise in real-world systems. We show that the existing definition for calibration of a regression uncertainty [Kuleshov et al. 2018] has severe limitations in distinguishing informative from non-informative uncertainty predictions. We propose a new definition that escapes this caveat and an evaluation method using a simple histogram-based approach. Our method clusters examples with similar uncertainty prediction and compares the prediction with the empirical uncertainty on these examples. We also propose a simple, scaling-based calibration method that preforms as well as much more complex ones. We show results on both a synthetic, controlled problem and on the object detection bounding-box regression task using the COCO and KITTI datasets.

Existing methods, such as concept bottleneck models (CBMs), have been successful in providing concept-based interpretations for black-box deep learning models. They typically work by predicting concepts given the input and then predicting the final class label given the predicted concepts. However, (1) they often fail to capture the high-order, nonlinear interaction between concepts, e.g., correcting a predicted concept (e.g., "yellow breast") does not help correct highly correlated concepts (e.g., "yellow belly"), leading to suboptimal final accuracy; (2) they cannot naturally quantify the complex conditional dependencies between different concepts and class labels (e.g., for an image with the class label "Kentucky Warbler" and a concept "black bill", what is the probability that the model correctly predicts another concept "black crown"), therefore failing to provide deeper insight into how a black-box model works. In response to these limitations, we propose Energy-based Concept Bottleneck Models (ECBMs). Our ECBMs use a set of neural networks to define the joint energy of candidate (input, concept, class) tuples. With such a unified interface, prediction, concept correction, and conditional dependency quantification are then represented as conditional probabilities, which are generated by composing different energy functions. Our ECBMs address both limitations of existing CBMs, providing higher accuracy and richer concept interpretations. Empirical results show that our approach outperforms the state-of-the-art on real-world datasets.

The mainstream of the existing approaches for video prediction builds up their models based on a Single-In-Single-Out (SISO) architecture, which takes the current frame as input to predict the next frame in a recursive manner. This way often leads to severe performance degradation when they try to extrapolate a longer period of future, thus limiting the practical use of the prediction model. Alternatively, a Multi-In-Multi-Out (MIMO) architecture that outputs all the future frames at one shot naturally breaks the recursive manner and therefore prevents error accumulation. However, only a few MIMO models for video prediction are proposed and they only achieve inferior performance due to the date. The real strength of the MIMO model in this area is not well noticed and is largely under-explored. Motivated by that, we conduct a comprehensive investigation in this paper to thoroughly exploit how far a simple MIMO architecture can go. Surprisingly, our empirical studies reveal that a simple MIMO model can outperform the state-of-the-art work with a large margin much more than expected, especially in dealing with longterm error accumulation. After exploring a number of ways and designs, we propose a new MIMO architecture based on extending the pure Transformer with local spatio-temporal blocks and a new multi-output decoder, namely MIMO-VP, to establish a new standard in video prediction. We evaluate our model in four highly competitive benchmarks (Moving MNIST, Human3.6M, Weather, KITTI). Extensive experiments show that our model wins 1st place on all the benchmarks with remarkable performance gains and surpasses the best SISO model in all aspects including efficiency, quantity, and quality. We believe our model can serve as a new baseline to facilitate the future research of video prediction tasks. The code will be released.

We present FoveaBox, an accurate, flexible, and completely anchor-free framework for object detection. While almost all state-of-the-art object detectors utilize predefined anchors to enumerate possible locations, scales and aspect ratios for the search of the objects, their performance and generalization ability are also limited to the design of anchors. Instead, FoveaBox directly learns the object existing possibility and the bounding box coordinates without anchor reference. This is achieved by: (a) predicting category-sensitive semantic maps for the object existing possibility, and (b) producing category-agnostic bounding box for each position that potentially contains an object. The scales of target boxes are naturally associated with feature pyramid representations. In FoveaBox, an instance is assigned to adjacent feature levels to make the model more accurate.We demonstrate its effectiveness on standard benchmarks and report extensive experimental analysis. Without bells and whistles, FoveaBox achieves state-of-the-art single model performance on the standard COCO and Pascal VOC object detection benchmark. More importantly, FoveaBox avoids all computation and hyper-parameters related to anchor boxes, which are often sensitive to the final detection performance. We believe the simple and effective approach will serve as a solid baseline and help ease future research for object detection. The code has been made publicly available at https://github.com/taokong/FoveaBox .

We present an MatchboxNet - an end-to-end neural network for speech command recognition. MatchboxNet is a deep residual network composed from blocks of 1D time-channel separable convolution, batch-normalization, ReLU and dropout layers. MatchboxNet reaches state-of-the-art accuracy on the Google Speech Commands dataset while having significantly fewer parameters than similar models. The small footprint of MatchboxNet makes it an attractive candidate for devices with limited computational resources. The model is highly scalable, so model accuracy can be improved with modest additional memory and compute. Finally, we show how intensive data augmentation using an auxiliary noise dataset improves robustness in the presence of background noise.

Despite significant advances, the performance of state-of-the-art continual learning approaches hinges on the unrealistic scenario of fully labeled data. In this paper, we tackle this challenge and propose an approach for continual semi-supervised learning--a setting where not all the data samples are labeled. A primary issue in this scenario is the model forgetting representations of unlabeled data and overfitting the labeled samples. We leverage the power of nearest-neighbor classifiers to nonlinearly partition the feature space and flexibly model the underlying data distribution thanks to its non-parametric nature. This enables the model to learn a strong representation for the current task, and distill relevant information from previous tasks. We perform a thorough experimental evaluation and show that our method outperforms all the existing approaches by large margins, setting a solid state of the art on the continual semi-supervised learning paradigm. For example, on CIFAR-100 we surpass several others even when using at least 30 times less supervision (0.8% vs. 25% of annotations). Finally, our method works well on both low and high resolution images and scales seamlessly to more complex datasets such as ImageNet-100. The code is publicly available on https://github.com/kangzhiq/NNCSL

Black-box machine learning models are now routinely used in high-risk settings, like medical diagnostics, which demand uncertainty quantification to avoid consequential model failures. Conformal prediction is a user-friendly paradigm for creating statistically rigorous uncertainty sets/intervals for the predictions of such models. Critically, the sets are valid in a distribution-free sense: they possess explicit, non-asymptotic guarantees even without distributional assumptions or model assumptions. One can use conformal prediction with any pre-trained model, such as a neural network, to produce sets that are guaranteed to contain the ground truth with a user-specified probability, such as 90%. It is easy-to-understand, easy-to-use, and general, applying naturally to problems arising in the fields of computer vision, natural language processing, deep reinforcement learning, and so on. This hands-on introduction is aimed to provide the reader a working understanding of conformal prediction and related distribution-free uncertainty quantification techniques with one self-contained document. We lead the reader through practical theory for and examples of conformal prediction and describe its extensions to complex machine learning tasks involving structured outputs, distribution shift, time-series, outliers, models that abstain, and more. Throughout, there are many explanatory illustrations, examples, and code samples in Python. With each code sample comes a Jupyter notebook implementing the method on a real-data example; the notebooks can be accessed and easily run using our codebase.

Recent advances in deep learning have driven rapid progress in time series forecasting, yet many state-of-the-art models continue to struggle with robust performance in real-world applications, even when they achieve strong results on standard benchmark datasets. This persistent gap can be attributed to the black-box nature of deep learning architectures and the inherent limitations of current evaluation frameworks, which frequently lack the capacity to provide clear, quantitative insights into the specific strengths and weaknesses of different models, thereby complicating the selection of appropriate models for particular forecasting scenarios. To address these issues, we propose a synthetic data-driven evaluation paradigm, SynTSBench, that systematically assesses fundamental modeling capabilities of time series forecasting models through programmable feature configuration. Our framework isolates confounding factors and establishes an interpretable evaluation system with three core analytical dimensions: (1) temporal feature decomposition and capability mapping, which enables systematic evaluation of model capacities to learn specific pattern types; (2) robustness analysis under data irregularities, which quantifies noise tolerance thresholds and anomaly recovery capabilities; and (3) theoretical optimum benchmarking, which establishes performance boundaries for each pattern type-enabling direct comparison between model predictions and mathematical optima. Our experiments show that current deep learning models do not universally approach optimal baselines across all types of temporal features.The code is available at https://github.com/TanQitai/SynTSBench

Lipschitz continuity is a crucial functional property of any predictive model, that naturally governs its robustness, generalisation, as well as adversarial vulnerability. Contrary to other works that focus on obtaining tighter bounds and developing different practical strategies to enforce certain Lipschitz properties, we aim to thoroughly examine and characterise the Lipschitz behaviour of Neural Networks. Thus, we carry out an empirical investigation in a range of different settings (namely, architectures, datasets, label noise, and more) by exhausting the limits of the simplest and the most general lower and upper bounds. As a highlight of this investigation, we showcase a remarkable fidelity of the lower Lipschitz bound, identify a striking Double Descent trend in both upper and lower bounds to the Lipschitz and explain the intriguing effects of label noise on function smoothness and generalisation.

Rapid advances in audio-video (AV) generation have enabled high-fidelity synthesis with synchronized sound, particularly for human-related scenarios involving speech and interactions. Yet evaluation for AV generation remains at an early stage, with only a few coarse-grained benchmarks for human-related scenarios and relying on limited preset evaluations with generic multimodal LLMs, leading to inaccurate assessments of model capabilities. To address these issues, we introduce AVBench, a fully automated benchmark tailored for human-centric AV generation. AVBench is built on two key designs for comprehensive and accurate evaluation: (i) Human-centric and fine-grained metrics. AVBench integrates ten evaluation dimensions designed for human-centered real-world scenarios, covering visual quality, audio quality, and multi-level consistency across modalities. These practical metrics capture human-related details that existing benchmarks often overlook. (ii) Specialized evaluators via preference learning. To address the lack of specialized training data, we construct large-scale supervision by transforming real-world videos into diverse training pairs with controlled perturbations. After fine-tuning on this high-quality dataset, the evaluators learn to reliably detect subtle cross-modal inconsistencies. Crucially, instead of producing discrete textual judgment, AVBench derives continuous evaluation scores from the model's prediction confidence on binary decisions. This probabilistic scoring mechanism enables a more reliable assessment than traditional VQA-style evaluation and aligns closely with human judgment. Taken together, AVBench offers automated evaluation for AV generation, demonstrates strong potential for data filtering, and serves as a differentiable reward signal for Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF).

To discover the weaknesses of LLMs, researchers often embed prompts into a vector space and cluster them to extract insightful patterns. However, vector embeddings primarily capture topical similarity. As a result, prompts that share a topic but differ in specificity, and consequently in difficulty, are often represented similarly, making fine-grained weakness analysis difficult. To address this limitation, we propose PROMPT2BOX, which embeds prompts into a box embedding space using a trained encoder. The encoder, trained on existing and synthesized datasets, outputs box embeddings that capture not only semantic similarity but also specificity relations between prompts (e.g., "writing an adventure story" is more specific than "writing a story"). We further develop a novel dimension reduction technique for box embeddings to facilitate dataset visualization and comparison. Our experiments demonstrate that box embeddings consistently capture prompt specificity better than vector baselines. On the downstream task of creating hierarchical clustering trees for 17 LLMs from the UltraFeedback dataset, PROMPT2BOX can identify 8.9\% more LLM weaknesses than vector baselines and achieves an approximately 33\% stronger correlation between hierarchical depth and instruction specificity.

Conventional wisdom suggests that autoregressive models are used to process discrete data. When applied to continuous modalities such as visual data, Visual AutoRegressive modeling (VAR) typically resorts to quantization-based approaches to cast the data into a discrete space, which can introduce significant information loss. To tackle this issue, we introduce a Continuous VAR framework that enables direct visual autoregressive generation without vector quantization. The underlying theoretical foundation is strictly proper scoring rules, which provide powerful statistical tools capable of evaluating how well a generative model approximates the true distribution. Within this framework, all we need is to select a strictly proper score and set it as the training objective to optimize. We primarily explore a class of training objectives based on the energy score, which is likelihood-free and thus overcomes the difficulty of making probabilistic predictions in the continuous space. Previous efforts on continuous autoregressive generation, such as GIVT and diffusion loss, can also be derived from our framework using other strictly proper scores. Source code: https://github.com/shaochenze/EAR.

Learning accurate predictive models of real-world dynamic phenomena (e.g., climate, biological) remains a challenging task. One key issue is that the data generated by both natural and artificial processes often comprise time series that are irregularly sampled and/or contain missing observations. In this work, we propose the Neural Continuous-Discrete State Space Model (NCDSSM) for continuous-time modeling of time series through discrete-time observations. NCDSSM employs auxiliary variables to disentangle recognition from dynamics, thus requiring amortized inference only for the auxiliary variables. Leveraging techniques from continuous-discrete filtering theory, we demonstrate how to perform accurate Bayesian inference for the dynamic states. We propose three flexible parameterizations of the latent dynamics and an efficient training objective that marginalizes the dynamic states during inference. Empirical results on multiple benchmark datasets across various domains show improved imputation and forecasting performance of NCDSSM over existing models.

Vision-language models (VLMs) pre-trained on web-scale datasets have demonstrated remarkable capabilities on downstream tasks when fine-tuned with minimal data. However, many VLMs rely on proprietary data and are not open-source, which restricts the use of white-box approaches for fine-tuning. As such, we aim to develop a black-box approach to optimize VLMs through natural language prompts, thereby avoiding the need to access model parameters, feature embeddings, or even output logits. We propose employing chat-based LLMs to search for the best text prompt for VLMs. Specifically, we adopt an automatic hill-climbing procedure that converges to an effective prompt by evaluating the performance of current prompts and asking LLMs to refine them based on textual feedback, all within a conversational process without human-in-the-loop. In a challenging 1-shot image classification setup, our simple approach surpasses the white-box continuous prompting method (CoOp) by an average of 1.5% across 11 datasets including ImageNet. Our approach also outperforms both human-engineered and LLM-generated prompts. We highlight the advantage of conversational feedback that incorporates both positive and negative prompts, suggesting that LLMs can utilize the implicit gradient direction in textual feedback for a more efficient search. In addition, we find that the text prompts generated through our strategy are not only more interpretable but also transfer well across different VLM architectures in a black-box manner. Lastly, we demonstrate our framework on a state-of-the-art black-box VLM (DALL-E 3) for text-to-image optimization.

Invariance learning methods aim to learn invariant features in the hope that they generalize under distributional shifts. Although many tasks are naturally characterized by continuous domains, current invariance learning techniques generally assume categorically indexed domains. For example, auto-scaling in cloud computing often needs a CPU utilization prediction model that generalizes across different times (e.g., time of a day and date of a year), where `time' is a continuous domain index. In this paper, we start by theoretically showing that existing invariance learning methods can fail for continuous domain problems. Specifically, the naive solution of splitting continuous domains into discrete ones ignores the underlying relationship among domains, and therefore potentially leads to suboptimal performance. To address this challenge, we then propose Continuous Invariance Learning (CIL), which extracts invariant features across continuously indexed domains. CIL is a novel adversarial procedure that measures and controls the conditional independence between the labels and continuous domain indices given the extracted features. Our theoretical analysis demonstrates the superiority of CIL over existing invariance learning methods. Empirical results on both synthetic and real-world datasets (including data collected from production systems) show that CIL consistently outperforms strong baselines among all the tasks.

Predicting real-world events from live market signals demands systems that fuse qualitative news with quantitative order-book dynamics under strict temporal discipline -- a challenge existing benchmarks fail to capture. We present PolyBench, a multimodal benchmark derived from Polymarket that records point-in-time cross-sections of 38,666 binary prediction markets spanning 4,997 events, synchronously coupling each snapshot with a Central Limit Order Book (CLOB) state and a real-time news stream. Using PolyBench, we evaluate seven state-of-the-art Large Language Models -- spanning open- and closed-source families -- generating 36,165 predictions under identical, timestamp-locked market states collected between February 6 and 12, 2026. Our multidimensional framework assesses directional accuracy, our proposed Confidence-Weighted Return (CWR), Annualized Percentage Yield (APY), and Sharpe ratio via realistic order-book execution simulation. The results reveal a pronounced performance divergence: only two of seven models achieve positive financial returns -- MiMo-V2-Flash at 17.6% CWR and Gemini-3-Flash at 6.2% CWR -- while the remaining five incur losses despite uniformly high stated confidence. These findings highlight the gap between surface-level language fluency and genuine probabilistic reasoning under live market uncertainty, and establish PolyBench as a contamination-proof, financially-grounded evaluation standard for future LLM research. Our dataset and code available at \href{https://github.com/PolyBench/PolyBench{https://github.com/PolyBench/PolyBench}}.

Ensuring safe and effective use of AI requires understanding and anticipating its performance on novel tasks, from advanced scientific challenges to transformed workplace activities. So far, benchmarking has guided progress in AI, but it has offered limited explanatory and predictive power for general-purpose AI systems, given the low transferability across diverse tasks. In this paper, we introduce general scales for AI evaluation that can explain what common AI benchmarks really measure, extract ability profiles of AI systems, and predict their performance for new task instances, in- and out-of-distribution. Our fully-automated methodology builds on 18 newly-crafted rubrics that place instance demands on general scales that do not saturate. Illustrated for 15 large language models and 63 tasks, high explanatory power is unleashed from inspecting the demand and ability profiles, bringing insights on the sensitivity and specificity exhibited by different benchmarks, and how knowledge, metacognition and reasoning are affected by model size, chain-of-thought and distillation. Surprisingly, high predictive power at the instance level becomes possible using these demand levels, providing superior estimates over black-box baseline predictors based on embeddings or finetuning, especially in out-of-distribution settings (new tasks and new benchmarks). The scales, rubrics, battery, techniques and results presented here represent a major step for AI evaluation, underpinning the reliable deployment of AI in the years ahead. (Collaborative platform: https://kinds-of-intelligence-cfi.github.io/ADELE.)

Prediction sets capture uncertainty by predicting sets of labels rather than individual labels, enabling downstream decisions to conservatively account for all plausible outcomes. Conformal inference algorithms construct prediction sets guaranteed to contain the true label with high probability. These guarantees fail to hold in the face of distribution shift, which is precisely when reliable uncertainty quantification can be most useful. We propose a novel algorithm for constructing prediction sets with PAC guarantees in the label shift setting. This method estimates the predicted probabilities of the classes in a target domain, as well as the confusion matrix, then propagates uncertainty in these estimates through a Gaussian elimination algorithm to compute confidence intervals for importance weights. Finally, it uses these intervals to construct prediction sets. We evaluate our approach on five datasets: the CIFAR-10, ChestX-Ray and Entity-13 image datasets, the tabular CDC Heart dataset, and the AGNews text dataset. Our algorithm satisfies the PAC guarantee while producing smaller, more informative, prediction sets compared to several baselines.

Recent Graphical User Interface (GUI) agents replicate the R1-Zero paradigm, coupling online Reinforcement Learning (RL) with explicit chain-of-thought reasoning prior to object grounding and thereby achieving substantial performance gains. In this paper, we first conduct extensive analysis experiments of three key components of that training pipeline: input design, output evaluation, and policy update-each revealing distinct challenges arising from blindly applying general-purpose RL without adapting to GUI grounding tasks. Input design: Current templates encourage the model to generate chain-of-thought reasoning, but longer chains unexpectedly lead to worse grounding performance. Output evaluation: Reward functions based on hit signals or box area allow models to exploit box size, leading to reward hacking and poor localization quality. Policy update: Online RL tends to overfit easy examples due to biases in length and sample difficulty, leading to under-optimization on harder cases. To address these issues, we propose three targeted solutions. First, we adopt a Fast Thinking Template that encourages direct answer generation, reducing excessive reasoning during training. Second, we incorporate a box size constraint into the reward function to mitigate reward hacking. Third, we revise the RL objective by adjusting length normalization and adding a difficulty-aware scaling factor, enabling better optimization on hard samples. Our GUI-G1-3B, trained on 17K public samples with Qwen2.5-VL-3B-Instruct, achieves 90.3% accuracy on ScreenSpot and 37.1% on ScreenSpot-Pro. This surpasses all prior models of similar size and even outperforms the larger UI-TARS-7B, establishing a new state-of-the-art in GUI agent grounding. The project repository is available at https://github.com/Yuqi-Zhou/GUI-G1.

We describe PromptBoosting, a query-efficient procedure for building a text classifier from a neural language model (LM) without access to the LM's parameters, gradients, or hidden representations. This form of "black-box" classifier training has become increasingly important as the cost of training and inference in large-scale LMs grows. But existing black-box LM classifier learning approaches are themselves computationally inefficient, typically specializing LMs to the target task by searching in a large space of (discrete or continuous) prompts using zeroth-order optimization methods. Instead of directly optimizing in prompt space, PromptBoosting obtains a small pool of prompts via a gradient-free approach and then constructs a large pool of weak learners by pairing these prompts with different elements of the LM's output distribution. These weak learners are then ensembled using the AdaBoost algorithm. The entire learning process requires only a small number of forward passes and no backward pass. Experiments show that PromptBoosting achieves state-of-the-art performance in multiple black-box few-shot classification tasks, and matches or outperforms full fine-tuning in both few-shot and standard learning paradigms, while training 10x faster than existing black-box methods.

We introduce a framework for multi-camera 3D object detection. In contrast to existing works, which estimate 3D bounding boxes directly from monocular images or use depth prediction networks to generate input for 3D object detection from 2D information, our method manipulates predictions directly in 3D space. Our architecture extracts 2D features from multiple camera images and then uses a sparse set of 3D object queries to index into these 2D features, linking 3D positions to multi-view images using camera transformation matrices. Finally, our model makes a bounding box prediction per object query, using a set-to-set loss to measure the discrepancy between the ground-truth and the prediction. This top-down approach outperforms its bottom-up counterpart in which object bounding box prediction follows per-pixel depth estimation, since it does not suffer from the compounding error introduced by a depth prediction model. Moreover, our method does not require post-processing such as non-maximum suppression, dramatically improving inference speed. We achieve state-of-the-art performance on the nuScenes autonomous driving benchmark.

In contrast to fully supervised methods using pixel-wise mask labels, box-supervised instance segmentation takes advantage of simple box annotations, which has recently attracted increasing research attention. This paper presents a novel single-shot instance segmentation approach, namely Box2Mask, which integrates the classical level-set evolution model into deep neural network learning to achieve accurate mask prediction with only bounding box supervision. Specifically, both the input image and its deep features are employed to evolve the level-set curves implicitly, and a local consistency module based on a pixel affinity kernel is used to mine the local context and spatial relations. Two types of single-stage frameworks, i.e., CNN-based and transformer-based frameworks, are developed to empower the level-set evolution for box-supervised instance segmentation, and each framework consists of three essential components: instance-aware decoder, box-level matching assignment and level-set evolution. By minimizing the level-set energy function, the mask map of each instance can be iteratively optimized within its bounding box annotation. The experimental results on five challenging testbeds, covering general scenes, remote sensing, medical and scene text images, demonstrate the outstanding performance of our proposed Box2Mask approach for box-supervised instance segmentation. In particular, with the Swin-Transformer large backbone, our Box2Mask obtains 42.4% mask AP on COCO, which is on par with the recently developed fully mask-supervised methods. The code is available at: https://github.com/LiWentomng/boxlevelset.

A modern paradigm for generalization in machine learning and AI consists of pre-training a task-agnostic foundation model, generally obtained using self-supervised and multimodal contrastive learning. The resulting representations can be used for prediction on a downstream task for which no labeled data is available. We present a theoretical framework to better understand this approach, called zero-shot prediction. We identify the target quantities that zero-shot prediction aims to learn, or learns in passing, and the key conditional independence relationships that enable its generalization ability.

This paper presents an end-to-end semi-supervised object detection approach, in contrast to previous more complex multi-stage methods. The end-to-end training gradually improves pseudo label qualities during the curriculum, and the more and more accurate pseudo labels in turn benefit object detection training. We also propose two simple yet effective techniques within this framework: a soft teacher mechanism where the classification loss of each unlabeled bounding box is weighed by the classification score produced by the teacher network; a box jittering approach to select reliable pseudo boxes for the learning of box regression. On the COCO benchmark, the proposed approach outperforms previous methods by a large margin under various labeling ratios, i.e. 1\%, 5\% and 10\%. Moreover, our approach proves to perform also well when the amount of labeled data is relatively large. For example, it can improve a 40.9 mAP baseline detector trained using the full COCO training set by +3.6 mAP, reaching 44.5 mAP, by leveraging the 123K unlabeled images of COCO. On the state-of-the-art Swin Transformer based object detector (58.9 mAP on test-dev), it can still significantly improve the detection accuracy by +1.5 mAP, reaching 60.4 mAP, and improve the instance segmentation accuracy by +1.2 mAP, reaching 52.4 mAP. Further incorporating with the Object365 pre-trained model, the detection accuracy reaches 61.3 mAP and the instance segmentation accuracy reaches 53.0 mAP, pushing the new state-of-the-art.

Prediction sets have recently been shown to be a promising strategy for quantifying the uncertainty of deep neural networks in a way that provides theoretical guarantees. However, existing techniques have largely targeted settings where the space of labels is simple, so prediction sets can be arbitrary subsets of labels. For structured prediction problems where the space of labels is exponential in size, even prediction sets containing a small fraction of all labels can be exponentially large. In the context of code generation, we propose a solution that considers a restricted set of prediction sets that can compactly be represented as partial programs, which are programs with portions replaced with holes. Given a trained code generation model, our algorithm leverages a programming language's abstract syntax tree to generate a set of programs such that the correct program is in the set with high-confidence. Valuable applications of our algorithm include a Codex-style code generator with holes in uncertain parts of the generated code, which provides a partial program with theoretical guarantees. We evaluate our approach on PICARD (a T5 model for SQL semantic parsing) and Codex (a GPT model for over a dozen programming languages, including Python), demonstrating that our approach generates compact PAC prediction sets. This is the first research contribution that generates PAC prediction sets for generative code models.

While traditional machine learning can effectively tackle a wide range of problems, it primarily operates within a closed-world setting, which presents limitations when dealing with streaming data. As a solution, incremental learning emerges to address real-world scenarios involving new data's arrival. Recently, pre-training has made significant advancements and garnered the attention of numerous researchers. The strong performance of these pre-trained models (PTMs) presents a promising avenue for developing continual learning algorithms that can effectively adapt to real-world scenarios. Consequently, exploring the utilization of PTMs in incremental learning has become essential. This paper introduces a pre-trained model-based continual learning toolbox known as PILOT. On the one hand, PILOT implements some state-of-the-art class-incremental learning algorithms based on pre-trained models, such as L2P, DualPrompt, and CODA-Prompt. On the other hand, PILOT also fits typical class-incremental learning algorithms (e.g., DER, FOSTER, and MEMO) within the context of pre-trained models to evaluate their effectiveness.

Humans can incrementally learn to do new visual detection tasks, which is a huge challenge for today's computer vision systems. Incrementally trained deep learning models lack backwards transfer to previously seen classes and suffer from a phenomenon known as "catastrophic forgetting." In this paper, we pioneer online streaming learning for object detection, where an agent must learn examples one at a time with severe memory and computational constraints. In object detection, a system must output all bounding boxes for an image with the correct label. Unlike earlier work, the system described in this paper can learn this task in an online manner with new classes being introduced over time. We achieve this capability by using a novel memory replay mechanism that efficiently replays entire scenes. We achieve state-of-the-art results on both the PASCAL VOC 2007 and MS COCO datasets.

We present a method for detecting objects in images using a single deep neural network. Our approach, named SSD, discretizes the output space of bounding boxes into a set of default boxes over different aspect ratios and scales per feature map location. At prediction time, the network generates scores for the presence of each object category in each default box and produces adjustments to the box to better match the object shape. Additionally, the network combines predictions from multiple feature maps with different resolutions to naturally handle objects of various sizes. Our SSD model is simple relative to methods that require object proposals because it completely eliminates proposal generation and subsequent pixel or feature resampling stage and encapsulates all computation in a single network. This makes SSD easy to train and straightforward to integrate into systems that require a detection component. Experimental results on the PASCAL VOC, MS COCO, and ILSVRC datasets confirm that SSD has comparable accuracy to methods that utilize an additional object proposal step and is much faster, while providing a unified framework for both training and inference. Compared to other single stage methods, SSD has much better accuracy, even with a smaller input image size. For 300times 300 input, SSD achieves 72.1% mAP on VOC2007 test at 58 FPS on a Nvidia Titan X and for 500times 500 input, SSD achieves 75.1% mAP, outperforming a comparable state of the art Faster R-CNN model. Code is available at https://github.com/weiliu89/caffe/tree/ssd .

Current language models generate chain-of-thought traces by autoregressively sampling tokens from a finite vocabulary. While this discrete sampling has achieved remarkable success, conducting chain-of-thought with continuously-valued tokens (CoT2) offers a richer and more expressive alternative. Our work examines the benefits of CoT2 through logical reasoning tasks that inherently require search capabilities and provide optimization and exploration methods for CoT2. Theoretically, we show that CoT2 allows the model to track multiple traces in parallel and quantify its benefits for inference efficiency. Notably, one layer transformer equipped with CoT2 can provably solve the combinatorial "subset sum problem" given sufficient embedding dimension. These insights lead to a novel and effective supervision strategy where we match the softmax outputs to the empirical token distributions of a set of target traces. Complementing this, we introduce sampling strategies that unlock policy optimization and self-improvement for CoT2. Our first strategy samples and composes K discrete tokens at each decoding step to control the level of parallelism, and reduces to standard CoT when K=1. Our second strategy relies on continuous exploration over the probability simplex. Experiments confirm that policy optimization with CoT2 indeed improves the performance of the model beyond its initial discrete or continuous supervision.

Box-supervised instance segmentation has gained much attention as it requires only simple box annotations instead of costly mask or polygon annotations. However, existing box-supervised instance segmentation models mainly focus on mask-based frameworks. We propose a new end-to-end training technique, termed BoxSnake, to achieve effective polygonal instance segmentation using only box annotations for the first time. Our method consists of two loss functions: (1) a point-based unary loss that constrains the bounding box of predicted polygons to achieve coarse-grained segmentation; and (2) a distance-aware pairwise loss that encourages the predicted polygons to fit the object boundaries. Compared with the mask-based weakly-supervised methods, BoxSnake further reduces the performance gap between the predicted segmentation and the bounding box, and shows significant superiority on the Cityscapes dataset. The code has been available publicly.

Conventional neural architectures for sequential data present important limitations. Recurrent networks suffer from exploding and vanishing gradients, small effective memory horizons, and must be trained sequentially. Convolutional networks are unable to handle sequences of unknown size and their memory horizon must be defined a priori. In this work, we show that all these problems can be solved by formulating convolutional kernels in CNNs as continuous functions. The resulting Continuous Kernel Convolution (CKConv) allows us to model arbitrarily long sequences in a parallel manner, within a single operation, and without relying on any form of recurrence. We show that Continuous Kernel Convolutional Networks (CKCNNs) obtain state-of-the-art results in multiple datasets, e.g., permuted MNIST, and, thanks to their continuous nature, are able to handle non-uniformly sampled datasets and irregularly-sampled data natively. CKCNNs match or perform better than neural ODEs designed for these purposes in a faster and simpler manner.

We study how to endow GUI agents with scalable memory that help generalize across unfamiliar interfaces and long-horizon tasks. Prior GUI agents compress past trajectories into text tokens, which balloons context length and misses decisive visual cues (e.g., exact widget size and position). We propose a continuous memory that encodes each GUI trajectory into a fixed-length sequence of continuous embeddings using the VLM itself as an encoder; these embeddings are plugged directly into the backbone's input layer, sharply reducing context cost while preserving fine-grained visual information. As memory size and retrieval depth increase, performance improves monotonically, unlike text memories that degrade with long prompts. To grow memory at low cost, we introduce an auto-scaling data flywheel that (i) discovers new environments via search, (ii) synthesizes tasks with an open-source VLM, (iii) rolls out trajectories with the agent, and (iv) verifies success with the same VLM. Using this pipeline, we collect 100k+ trajectories for about \$4000 and fine-tune only the memory encoder (LoRA on a Q-Former, 1.2\% parameters) with 1,500 samples. On real-world GUI benchmarks, our memory-augmented agent consistently improves success rates under long horizons and distribution shifts. Notably, Qwen-2.5-VL-7B + continuous memory achieves performance comparable to state-of-the-art closed-source models (e.g., GPT-4o, Claude-4).

Chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning greatly improves the interpretability and problem-solving abilities of multimodal large language models (MLLMs). However, existing approaches are focused on text CoT, limiting their ability to leverage visual cues. Visual CoT remains underexplored, and the only work is based on supervised fine-tuning (SFT) that relies on extensive labeled bounding-box data and is hard to generalize to unseen cases. In this paper, we introduce Unsupervised Visual CoT (UV-CoT), a novel framework for image-level CoT reasoning via preference optimization. UV-CoT performs preference comparisons between model-generated bounding boxes (one is preferred and the other is dis-preferred), eliminating the need for bounding-box annotations. We get such preference data by introducing an automatic data generation pipeline. Given an image, our target MLLM (e.g., LLaVA-1.5-7B) generates seed bounding boxes using a template prompt and then answers the question using each bounded region as input. An evaluator MLLM (e.g., OmniLLM-12B) ranks the responses, and these rankings serve as supervision to train the target MLLM with UV-CoT by minimizing negative log-likelihood losses. By emulating human perception--identifying key regions and reasoning based on them--UV-CoT can improve visual comprehension, particularly in spatial reasoning tasks where textual descriptions alone fall short. Our experiments on six datasets demonstrate the superiority of UV-CoT, compared to the state-of-the-art textual and visual CoT methods. Our zero-shot testing on four unseen datasets shows the strong generalization of UV-CoT. The code is available in https://github.com/kesenzhao/UV-CoT.

Continuous representations of logic formulae allow us to integrate symbolic knowledge into data-driven learning algorithms. If such embeddings are semantically consistent, i.e. if similar specifications are mapped into nearby vectors, they enable continuous learning and optimization directly in the semantic space of formulae. However, to translate the optimal continuous representation into a concrete requirement, such embeddings must be invertible. We tackle this issue by training a Transformer-based decoder-only model to invert semantic embeddings of Signal Temporal Logic (STL) formulae. STL is a powerful formalism that allows us to describe properties of signals varying over time in an expressive yet concise way. By constructing a small vocabulary from STL syntax, we demonstrate that our proposed model is able to generate valid formulae after only 1 epoch and to generalize to the semantics of the logic in about 10 epochs. Additionally, the model is able to decode a given embedding into formulae that are often simpler in terms of length and nesting while remaining semantically close (or equivalent) to gold references. We show the effectiveness of our methodology across various levels of training formulae complexity to assess the impact of training data on the model's ability to effectively capture the semantic information contained in the embeddings and generalize out-of-distribution. Finally, we deploy our model for solving a requirement mining task, i.e. inferring STL specifications that solve a classification task on trajectories, performing the optimization directly in the semantic space.

We propose continuous adversarial flow models, a type of continuous-time flow model trained with an adversarial objective. Unlike flow matching, which uses a fixed mean-squared-error criterion, our approach introduces a learned discriminator to guide training. This change in objective induces a different generalized distribution, which empirically produces samples that are better aligned with the target data distribution. Our method is primarily proposed for post-training existing flow-matching models, although it can also train models from scratch. On the ImageNet 256px generation task, our post-training substantially improves the guidance-free FID of latent-space SiT from 8.26 to 3.63 and of pixel-space JiT from 7.17 to 3.57. It also improves guided generation, reducing FID from 2.06 to 1.53 for SiT and from 1.86 to 1.80 for JiT. We further evaluate our approach on text-to-image generation, where it achieves improved results on both the GenEval and DPG benchmarks.

Tracking any given object(s) spatially and temporally is a common purpose in Visual Object Tracking (VOT) and Video Object Segmentation (VOS). Joint tracking and segmentation have been attempted in some studies but they often lack full compatibility of both box and mask in initialization and prediction, and mainly focus on single-object scenarios. To address these limitations, this paper proposes a Multi-object Mask-box Integrated framework for unified Tracking and Segmentation, dubbed MITS. Firstly, the unified identification module is proposed to support both box and mask reference for initialization, where detailed object information is inferred from boxes or directly retained from masks. Additionally, a novel pinpoint box predictor is proposed for accurate multi-object box prediction, facilitating target-oriented representation learning. All target objects are processed simultaneously from encoding to propagation and decoding, as a unified pipeline for VOT and VOS. Experimental results show MITS achieves state-of-the-art performance on both VOT and VOS benchmarks. Notably, MITS surpasses the best prior VOT competitor by around 6% on the GOT-10k test set, and significantly improves the performance of box initialization on VOS benchmarks. The code is available at https://github.com/yoxu515/MITS.

The presence of distribution shifts poses a significant challenge for deploying modern machine learning models in real-world applications. This work focuses on the target shift problem in a regression setting (Zhang et al., 2013; Nguyen et al., 2016). More specifically, the target variable y (also known as the response variable), which is continuous, has different marginal distributions in the training source and testing domain, while the conditional distribution of features x given y remains the same. While most literature focuses on classification tasks with finite target space, the regression problem has an infinite dimensional target space, which makes many of the existing methods inapplicable. In this work, we show that the continuous target shift problem can be addressed by estimating the importance weight function from an ill-posed integral equation. We propose a nonparametric regularized approach named ReTaSA to solve the ill-posed integral equation and provide theoretical justification for the estimated importance weight function. The effectiveness of the proposed method has been demonstrated with extensive numerical studies on synthetic and real-world datasets.

Accurately predicting customer Lifetime Value (LTV) is crucial for companies to optimize their revenue strategies. Traditional deep learning models for LTV prediction are effective but typically provide only point estimates and fail to capture model uncertainty in modeling user behaviors. To address this limitation, we propose a novel approach that enhances the architecture of purely neural network models by incorporating the Monte Carlo Dropout (MCD) framework. We benchmarked the proposed method using data from one of the most downloaded mobile games in the world, and demonstrated a substantial improvement in predictive Top 5\% Mean Absolute Percentage Error compared to existing state-of-the-art methods. Additionally, our approach provides confidence metric as an extra dimension for performance evaluation across various neural network models, facilitating more informed business decisions.

We present a conceptual framework, datamodeling, for analyzing the behavior of a model class in terms of the training data. For any fixed "target" example x, training set S, and learning algorithm, a datamodel is a parameterized function 2^S to R that for any subset of S' subset S -- using only information about which examples of S are contained in S' -- predicts the outcome of training a model on S' and evaluating on x. Despite the potential complexity of the underlying process being approximated (e.g., end-to-end training and evaluation of deep neural networks), we show that even simple linear datamodels can successfully predict model outputs. We then demonstrate that datamodels give rise to a variety of applications, such as: accurately predicting the effect of dataset counterfactuals; identifying brittle predictions; finding semantically similar examples; quantifying train-test leakage; and embedding data into a well-behaved and feature-rich representation space. Data for this paper (including pre-computed datamodels as well as raw predictions from four million trained deep neural networks) is available at https://github.com/MadryLab/datamodels-data .

Recent graphical user interface (GUI) grounders have significantly advanced single-shot accuracy on standard benchmarks, yet their performance degrades sharply on small targets, densely packed controls and out-of-distribution interfaces. We attribute this gap to a paradigmatic limitation shared by existing approaches: none of them treats a produced coordinate as a hypothesis to be reflected upon and revised under new visual evidence. This manifests as three coupled issues: 1) Lack of post-hoc reflection. The prediction is frozen at the moment of emission, leaving no internal mechanism to challenge or refine it. 2) Visual evidence decoupled from the prediction. The auxiliary visual evidence is gathered to support the upcoming coordinate rather than to scrutinise the one already committed to. 3) Refinement over views, not over predictions. The iterative zoom-in refines the inspected region instead of inheriting a previous coordinate as a spatial prior to be corrected. In this paper, we propose LookAgain, a closed-loop GUI grounder driven by post-prediction visual reflection. LookAgain reformulates grounding as a multi-turn predict-look-again-refine process with two primitives: "locate" posts a coordinate hypothesis, renders a marker on the image and appends a local patch of the predicted region. It anchors the next reasoning step to the previous prediction as a spatial prior; "confirm" accepts or reject the hypothesis and terminates the procedure. We train the LookAgain grounder with SFT on constructed reflective trajectories as a cold start, followed by GRPO with terminal grounding correctness as the sole reward. Extensive experiments show that LookAgain consistently improves performance on both refusal-aware and general GUI grounding benchmarks, achieving state-of-the-art results. Comprehensive ablations further verify the effectiveness of the proposed framework.

Vision-Language Models (VLMs) excel at reasoning in linguistic space but struggle with perceptual understanding that requires dense visual perception, e.g., spatial reasoning and geometric awareness. This limitation stems from the fact that current VLMs have limited mechanisms to capture dense visual information across spatial dimensions. We introduce Chain-of-Visual-Thought (COVT), a framework that enables VLMs to reason not only in words but also through continuous visual tokens-compact latent representations that encode rich perceptual cues. Within a small budget of roughly 20 tokens, COVT distills knowledge from lightweight vision experts, capturing complementary properties such as 2D appearance, 3D geometry, spatial layout, and edge structure. During training, the VLM with COVT autoregressively predicts these visual tokens to reconstruct dense supervision signals (e.g., depth, segmentation, edges, and DINO features). At inference, the model reasons directly in the continuous visual token space, preserving efficiency while optionally decoding dense predictions for interpretability. Evaluated across more than ten diverse perception benchmarks, including CV-Bench, MMVP, RealWorldQA, MMStar, WorldMedQA, and HRBench, integrating COVT into strong VLMs such as Qwen2.5-VL and LLaVA consistently improves performance by 3% to 16% and demonstrates that compact continuous visual thinking enables more precise, grounded, and interpretable multimodal intelligence.

Tabular data, a fundamental data format in machine learning, is predominantly utilized in competitions and real-world applications. The performance of tabular models--such as gradient boosted decision trees and neural networks--can vary significantly across datasets due to differences in feature distributions and task characteristics. Achieving top performance on each dataset often requires specialized expert knowledge. To address this variability, practitioners often aggregate the predictions of multiple models. However, conventional aggregation strategies typically rely on static combination rules and lack instance-level adaptability. In this work, we propose an in-context ensemble framework for tabular prediction that leverages large language models (LLMs) to perform dynamic, instance-specific integration of external model predictions. Without access to raw tabular features or semantic information, our method constructs a context around each test instance using its nearest neighbors and the predictions from a pool of external models. Within this enriched context, we introduce Chain of Tabular Thoughts (CoT^2), a prompting strategy that guides LLMs through multi-step, interpretable reasoning, making still further progress toward expert-level decision-making. Experimental results show that our method outperforms well-tuned baselines and standard ensemble techniques across a wide range of tabular datasets.

Causal inference, estimating causal effects from observational data, is a fundamental tool in many disciplines. Of particular importance across a variety of domains is the continuous treatment setting, where the variable of intervention has a continuous range. This setting is far less explored and represents a substantial shift from the binary treatment setting, with models needing to represent effects across a continuum of treatment values. In this paper, we present the first causal foundation model for the continuous treatment setting. Our model meta-learns the ability to predict causal effects across a wide variety of unseen tasks without additional training or fine-tuning. First, we design a novel prior over data-generating processes with continuous treatment variables in order to generate a rich causal training corpus. We then train a transformer to reconstruct individual treatment-response curves given only observational data, leveraging in-context learning to amortize expensive Bayesian posterior inference. Our model achieves state-of-the-art performance on individual treatment-response curve reconstruction tasks compared to causal models which are trained specifically for those tasks.

Data organized in tabular format is ubiquitous in real-world applications, and users often craft tables with biased feature definitions and flexibly set prediction targets of their interests. Thus, a rapid development of a robust, effective, dataset-versatile, user-friendly tabular prediction approach is highly desired. While Gradient Boosting Decision Trees (GBDTs) and existing deep neural networks (DNNs) have been extensively utilized by professional users, they present several challenges for casual users, particularly: (i) the dilemma of model selection due to their different dataset preferences, and (ii) the need for heavy hyperparameter searching, failing which their performances are deemed inadequate. In this paper, we delve into this question: Can we develop a deep learning model that serves as a "sure bet" solution for a wide range of tabular prediction tasks, while also being user-friendly for casual users? We delve into three key drawbacks of deep tabular models, encompassing: (P1) lack of rotational variance property, (P2) large data demand, and (P3) over-smooth solution. We propose ExcelFormer, addressing these challenges through a semi-permeable attention module that effectively constrains the influence of less informative features to break the DNNs' rotational invariance property (for P1), data augmentation approaches tailored for tabular data (for P2), and attentive feedforward network to boost the model fitting capability (for P3). These designs collectively make ExcelFormer a "sure bet" solution for diverse tabular datasets. Extensive and stratified experiments conducted on real-world datasets demonstrate that our model outperforms previous approaches across diverse tabular data prediction tasks, and this framework can be friendly to casual users, offering ease of use without the heavy hyperparameter tuning.

We propose Hyper-Dimensional Function Encoding (HDFE). Given samples of a continuous object (e.g. a function), HDFE produces an explicit vector representation of the given object, invariant to the sample distribution and density. Sample distribution and density invariance enables HDFE to consistently encode continuous objects regardless of their sampling, and therefore allows neural networks to receive continuous objects as inputs for machine learning tasks, such as classification and regression. Besides, HDFE does not require any training and is proved to map the object into an organized embedding space, which facilitates the training of the downstream tasks. In addition, the encoding is decodable, which enables neural networks to regress continuous objects by regressing their encodings. Therefore, HDFE serves as an interface for processing continuous objects. We apply HDFE to function-to-function mapping, where vanilla HDFE achieves competitive performance as the state-of-the-art algorithm. We apply HDFE to point cloud surface normal estimation, where a simple replacement from PointNet to HDFE leads to immediate 12% and 15% error reductions in two benchmarks. In addition, by integrating HDFE into the PointNet-based SOTA network, we improve the SOTA baseline by 2.5% and 1.7% in the same benchmarks.

For certain image generation tasks, vector graphics such as Scalable Vector Graphics (SVGs) offer clear benefits such as increased flexibility, size efficiency, and editing ease, but remain less explored than raster-based approaches. A core challenge is that the numerical, geometric parameters, which make up a large proportion of SVGs, are inefficiently encoded as long sequences of tokens. This slows training, reduces accuracy, and hurts generalization. To address these problems, we propose Continuous Number Modeling (CNM), an approach that directly models numbers as first-class, continuous values rather than discrete tokens. This formulation restores the mathematical elegance of the representation by aligning the model's inputs with the data's continuous nature, removing discretization artifacts introduced by token-based encoding. We then train a multimodal transformer on 2 million raster-to-SVG samples, followed by fine-tuning via reinforcement learning using perceptual feedback to further improve visual quality. Our approach improves training speed by over 30% while maintaining higher perceptual fidelity compared to alternative approaches. This work establishes CNM as a practical and efficient approach for high-quality vector generation, with potential for broader applications. We make our code available http://github.com/mikeogezi/CNM.

We address the neural network robustness problem by adding Similarity (i.e., correctly predicted depth-matches into training)-awareness and Distance-to-training-distribution-awareness to the existing output Magnitude (i.e., decision-boundary)-awareness of the softmax function. The resulting SDM activation function provides strong signals of the relative epistemic (reducible) predictive uncertainty. We use this novel behavior to further address the complementary HCI problem of mapping the output to human-interpretable summary statistics over relevant partitions of a held-out calibration set. Estimates of prediction-conditional uncertainty are obtained via a parsimonious learned transform over the class-conditional empirical CDFs of the output of a final-layer SDM activation function. For decision-making and as an intrinsic model check, estimates of class-conditional accuracy are obtained by further partitioning the high-probability regions of this calibrated output into class-conditional, region-specific CDFs. The uncertainty estimates from SDM calibration are remarkably robust to test-time distribution shifts and out-of-distribution inputs; incorporate awareness of the effective sample size; provide estimates of uncertainty from the learning and data splitting processes; and are well-suited for selective classification and conditional branching for additional test-time compute based on the predictive uncertainty, as for selective LLM generation, routing, and composition over multiple models and retrieval. Finally, we construct SDM networks, LLMs with uncertainty-aware verification and interpretability-by-exemplar as intrinsic properties. We provide open-source software implementing these results.

Objects in videos are typically characterized by continuous smooth motion. We exploit continuous smooth motion in three ways. 1) Improved accuracy by using object motion as an additional source of supervision, which we obtain by anticipating object locations from a static keyframe. 2) Improved efficiency by only doing the expensive feature computations on a small subset of all frames. Because neighboring video frames are often redundant, we only compute features for a single static keyframe and predict object locations in subsequent frames. 3) Reduced annotation cost, where we only annotate the keyframe and use smooth pseudo-motion between keyframes. We demonstrate computational efficiency, annotation efficiency, and improved mean average precision compared to the state-of-the-art on four datasets: ImageNet VID, EPIC KITCHENS-55, YouTube-BoundingBoxes, and Waymo Open dataset. Our source code is available at https://github.com/L-KID/Videoobject-detection-by-location-anticipation.

One-stage detector basically formulates object detection as dense classification and localization. The classification is usually optimized by Focal Loss and the box location is commonly learned under Dirac delta distribution. A recent trend for one-stage detectors is to introduce an individual prediction branch to estimate the quality of localization, where the predicted quality facilitates the classification to improve detection performance. This paper delves into the representations of the above three fundamental elements: quality estimation, classification and localization. Two problems are discovered in existing practices, including (1) the inconsistent usage of the quality estimation and classification between training and inference and (2) the inflexible Dirac delta distribution for localization when there is ambiguity and uncertainty in complex scenes. To address the problems, we design new representations for these elements. Specifically, we merge the quality estimation into the class prediction vector to form a joint representation of localization quality and classification, and use a vector to represent arbitrary distribution of box locations. The improved representations eliminate the inconsistency risk and accurately depict the flexible distribution in real data, but contain continuous labels, which is beyond the scope of Focal Loss. We then propose Generalized Focal Loss (GFL) that generalizes Focal Loss from its discrete form to the continuous version for successful optimization. On COCO test-dev, GFL achieves 45.0\% AP using ResNet-101 backbone, surpassing state-of-the-art SAPD (43.5\%) and ATSS (43.6\%) with higher or comparable inference speed, under the same backbone and training settings. Notably, our best model can achieve a single-model single-scale AP of 48.2\%, at 10 FPS on a single 2080Ti GPU. Code and models are available at https://github.com/implus/GFocal.

In science and medicine, model interpretations may be reported as discoveries of natural phenomena or used to guide patient treatments. In such high-stakes tasks, false discoveries may lead investigators astray. These applications would therefore benefit from control over the finite-sample error rate of interpretations. We reframe black box model interpretability as a multiple hypothesis testing problem. The task is to discover "important" features by testing whether the model prediction is significantly different from what would be expected if the features were replaced with uninformative counterfactuals. We propose two testing methods: one that provably controls the false discovery rate but which is not yet feasible for large-scale applications, and an approximate testing method which can be applied to real-world data sets. In simulation, both tests have high power relative to existing interpretability methods. When applied to state-of-the-art vision and language models, the framework selects features that intuitively explain model predictions. The resulting explanations have the additional advantage that they are themselves easy to interpret.

A key component of understanding hand-object interactions is the ability to identify the active object -- the object that is being manipulated by the human hand. In order to accurately localize the active object, any method must reason using information encoded by each image pixel, such as whether it belongs to the hand, the object, or the background. To leverage each pixel as evidence to determine the bounding box of the active object, we propose a pixel-wise voting function. Our pixel-wise voting function takes an initial bounding box as input and produces an improved bounding box of the active object as output. The voting function is designed so that each pixel inside of the input bounding box votes for an improved bounding box, and the box with the majority vote is selected as the output. We call the collection of bounding boxes generated inside of the voting function, the Relational Box Field, as it characterizes a field of bounding boxes defined in relationship to the current bounding box. While our voting function is able to improve the bounding box of the active object, one round of voting is typically not enough to accurately localize the active object. Therefore, we repeatedly apply the voting function to sequentially improve the location of the bounding box. However, since it is known that repeatedly applying a one-step predictor (i.e., auto-regressive processing with our voting function) can cause a data distribution shift, we mitigate this issue using reinforcement learning (RL). We adopt standard RL to learn the voting function parameters and show that it provides a meaningful improvement over a standard supervised learning approach. We perform experiments on two large-scale datasets: 100DOH and MECCANO, improving AP50 performance by 8% and 30%, respectively, over the state of the art.

Computer-use agents ground natural-language instructions in screenshots to locate interface elements, yet existing benchmarks do not isolate whether models bind relational language to the correct element. We introduce GUI-Primitives, a 994-item benchmark of contrastive instruction pairs over seven spatial relations in graphical user interfaces (left/right, above/below, containment, alignment, proximity, list ordinal, occlusion). Each pair holds the screenshot and anchor fixed while changing the relation expression, so the correct target moves between two designated candidates. Five annotators validate a 196-item subset (κ= 0.94 well-formedness; κ= 0.79 target selection). Nineteen vision-language models reach at most 32% strict point-in-box accuracy. Because models emit unconstrained coordinates, we classify each prediction by the candidate region it falls within. Predictions fall outside both candidates on 60-92% of items. Conditional on falling within a candidate region, target selection reaches 0.82-0.90 for horizontal position, vertical position, proximity, and list ordinal, but does not differ significantly from 0.50 for containment and occlusion: most failures reflect candidate localization rather than relation understanding. Across ten models, benchmark accuracy correlates with ScreenSpot-Pro accuracy (Spearman ρ= +0.74), an exploratory association at this sample size. Marking the two designated candidates raises selection accuracy by 35--57 percentage points, an oracle diagnostic that supplies the candidate set rather than a deployable method. We release the benchmark, predictions, and code.

Faced with distribution shift between training and test set, we wish to detect and quantify the shift, and to correct our classifiers without test set labels. Motivated by medical diagnosis, where diseases (targets) cause symptoms (observations), we focus on label shift, where the label marginal p(y) changes but the conditional p(x| y) does not. We propose Black Box Shift Estimation (BBSE) to estimate the test distribution p(y). BBSE exploits arbitrary black box predictors to reduce dimensionality prior to shift correction. While better predictors give tighter estimates, BBSE works even when predictors are biased, inaccurate, or uncalibrated, so long as their confusion matrices are invertible. We prove BBSE's consistency, bound its error, and introduce a statistical test that uses BBSE to detect shift. We also leverage BBSE to correct classifiers. Experiments demonstrate accurate estimates and improved prediction, even on high-dimensional datasets of natural images.

Deep learning has contributed remarkably to the advancement of time series analysis. Still, deep models can encounter performance bottlenecks in real-world small-sample scenarios, which can be concealed due to the performance saturation with small models on current benchmarks. Meanwhile, large models have demonstrated great powers in these scenarios through large-scale pre-training. Continuous progresses have been achieved as the emergence of large language models, exhibiting unprecedented ability in few-shot generalization, scalability, and task generality, which is however absent in time series models. To change the current practices of training small models on specific datasets from scratch, this paper aims at an early development of large time series models (LTSM). During pre-training, we curate large-scale datasets with up to 1 billion time points, unify heterogeneous time series into single-series sequence (S3) format, and develop the GPT-style architecture toward LTSMs. To meet diverse application needs, we convert forecasting, imputation, and anomaly detection of time series into a unified generative task. The outcome of this study is a Time Series Transformer (Timer), that is pre-trained by autoregressive next token prediction on large multi-domain datasets, and is fine-tuned to downstream scenarios with promising abilities as an LTSM.

We present a new challenging dataset, CPPE - 5 (Medical Personal Protective Equipment), with the goal to allow the study of subordinate categorization of medical personal protective equipments, which is not possible with other popular data sets that focus on broad-level categories (such as PASCAL VOC, ImageNet, Microsoft COCO, OpenImages, etc). To make it easy for models trained on this dataset to be used in practical scenarios in complex scenes, our dataset mainly contains images that show complex scenes with several objects in each scene in their natural context. The image collection for this dataset focuses on: obtaining as many non-iconic images as possible and making sure all the images are real-life images, unlike other existing datasets in this area. Our dataset includes 5 object categories (coveralls, face shields, gloves, masks, and goggles), and each image is annotated with a set of bounding boxes and positive labels. We present a detailed analysis of the dataset in comparison to other popular broad category datasets as well as datasets focusing on personal protective equipments, we also find that at present there exist no such publicly available datasets. Finally, we also analyze performance and compare model complexities on baseline and state-of-the-art models for bounding box results. Our code, data, and trained models are available at https://git.io/cppe5-dataset.

Foundation models are often used as fixed black-box predictors for downstream tasks with limited labeled data, but their predictions may be biased and unsafe to trust blindly. We study this setting through black-box assisted nonparametric regression: a learner observes labeled samples and can query a fixed predictor f_0, while the target f^* is close to f_0 in L_2(P_X) up to an unknown radius δ. We give a finite-sample minimax characterization showing a phase transition at δ_c(n) asymp n^{-β/(2β+d)}, with leading risk min{δ^2, n^{-2β/(2β+d)}}. We then analyze a Safe Residual Estimator: it learns a correction around f_0, initializes the residual head at zero so the initial predictor equals f_0, and uses holdout selection to revert to f_0 when the learned correction is not supported by validation data. Here, "safe" means avoiding negative transfer, i.e., performing worse than the black-box predictor alone. The estimator matches the leading minimax term up to an additive validation-selection cost. Synthetic regression experiments verify the predicted phase transition, while CIFAR-100 with CLIP and AG News with Qwen3-8B provide practice-facing evidence that the same residual-correction tradeoff is useful beyond the formal squared-loss regression setting.

Real-world data often exhibit imbalanced distributions, where certain target values have significantly fewer observations. Existing techniques for dealing with imbalanced data focus on targets with categorical indices, i.e., different classes. However, many tasks involve continuous targets, where hard boundaries between classes do not exist. We define Deep Imbalanced Regression (DIR) as learning from such imbalanced data with continuous targets, dealing with potential missing data for certain target values, and generalizing to the entire target range. Motivated by the intrinsic difference between categorical and continuous label space, we propose distribution smoothing for both labels and features, which explicitly acknowledges the effects of nearby targets, and calibrates both label and learned feature distributions. We curate and benchmark large-scale DIR datasets from common real-world tasks in computer vision, natural language processing, and healthcare domains. Extensive experiments verify the superior performance of our strategies. Our work fills the gap in benchmarks and techniques for practical imbalanced regression problems. Code and data are available at https://github.com/YyzHarry/imbalanced-regression.

Despite widespread adoption, machine learning models remain mostly black boxes. Understanding the reasons behind predictions is, however, quite important in assessing trust, which is fundamental if one plans to take action based on a prediction, or when choosing whether to deploy a new model. Such understanding also provides insights into the model, which can be used to transform an untrustworthy model or prediction into a trustworthy one. In this work, we propose LIME, a novel explanation technique that explains the predictions of any classifier in an interpretable and faithful manner, by learning an interpretable model locally around the prediction. We also propose a method to explain models by presenting representative individual predictions and their explanations in a non-redundant way, framing the task as a submodular optimization problem. We demonstrate the flexibility of these methods by explaining different models for text (e.g. random forests) and image classification (e.g. neural networks). We show the utility of explanations via novel experiments, both simulated and with human subjects, on various scenarios that require trust: deciding if one should trust a prediction, choosing between models, improving an untrustworthy classifier, and identifying why a classifier should not be trusted.

Deep neural networks (DNNs) have been shown to outperform traditional machine learning algorithms in a broad variety of application domains due to their effectiveness in modeling complex problems and handling high-dimensional datasets. Many real-life datasets, however, are of increasingly high dimensionality, where a large number of features may be irrelevant for both supervised and unsupervised learning tasks. The inclusion of such features would not only introduce unwanted noise but also increase computational complexity. Furthermore, due to high non-linearity and dependency among a large number of features, DNN models tend to be unavoidably opaque and perceived as black-box methods because of their not well-understood internal functioning. Their algorithmic complexity is often simply beyond the capacities of humans to understand the interplay among myriads of hyperparameters. A well-interpretable model can identify statistically significant features and explain the way they affect the model's outcome. In this paper, we propose an efficient method to improve the interpretability of black-box models for classification tasks in the case of high-dimensional datasets. First, we train a black-box model on a high-dimensional dataset to learn the embeddings on which the classification is performed. To decompose the inner working principles of the black-box model and to identify top-k important features, we employ different probing and perturbing techniques. We then approximate the behavior of the black-box model by means of an interpretable surrogate model on the top-k feature space. Finally, we derive decision rules and local explanations from the surrogate model to explain individual decisions. Our approach outperforms state-of-the-art methods like TabNet and XGboost when tested on different datasets with varying dimensionality between 50 and 20,000 w.r.t metrics and explainability.

We propose two novel model architectures for computing continuous vector representations of words from very large data sets. The quality of these representations is measured in a word similarity task, and the results are compared to the previously best performing techniques based on different types of neural networks. We observe large improvements in accuracy at much lower computational cost, i.e. it takes less than a day to learn high quality word vectors from a 1.6 billion words data set. Furthermore, we show that these vectors provide state-of-the-art performance on our test set for measuring syntactic and semantic word similarities.

We propose DiffusionDet, a new framework that formulates object detection as a denoising diffusion process from noisy boxes to object boxes. During the training stage, object boxes diffuse from ground-truth boxes to random distribution, and the model learns to reverse this noising process. In inference, the model refines a set of randomly generated boxes to the output results in a progressive way. Our work possesses an appealing property of flexibility, which enables the dynamic number of boxes and iterative evaluation. The extensive experiments on the standard benchmarks show that DiffusionDet achieves favorable performance compared to previous well-established detectors. For example, DiffusionDet achieves 5.3 AP and 4.8 AP gains when evaluated with more boxes and iteration steps, under a zero-shot transfer setting from COCO to CrowdHuman. Our code is available at https://github.com/ShoufaChen/DiffusionDet.

Mapping sequences of discrete data to a point in a continuous space makes it difficult to retrieve those sequences via random sampling. Mapping the input to a volume would make it easier to retrieve at test time, and that's the strategy followed by the family of approaches based on Variational Autoencoder. However the fact that they are at the same time optimizing for prediction and for smoothness of representation, forces them to trade-off between the two. We improve on the performance of some of the standard methods in deep learning to generate sentences by uniformly sampling a continuous space. We do it by proposing AriEL, that constructs volumes in a continuous space, without the need of encouraging the creation of volumes through the loss function. We first benchmark on a toy grammar, that allows to automatically evaluate the language learned and generated by the models. Then, we benchmark on a real dataset of human dialogues. Our results indicate that the random access to the stored information is dramatically improved, and our method AriEL is able to generate a wider variety of correct language by randomly sampling the latent space. VAE follows in performance for the toy dataset while, AE and Transformer follow for the real dataset. This partially supports to the hypothesis that encoding information into volumes instead of into points, can lead to improved retrieval of learned information with random sampling. This can lead to better generators and we also discuss potential disadvantages.

Predicting simple function classes has been widely used as a testbed for developing theory and understanding of the trained Transformer's in-context learning (ICL) ability. In this paper, we revisit the training of Transformers on linear regression tasks, and different from all the existing literature, we consider a bi-objective prediction task of predicting both the conditional expectation E[Y|X] and the conditional variance Var(Y|X). This additional uncertainty quantification objective provides a handle to (i) better design out-of-distribution experiments to distinguish ICL from in-weight learning (IWL) and (ii) make a better separation between the algorithms with and without using the prior information of the training distribution. Theoretically, we show that the trained Transformer reaches near Bayes-optimum, suggesting the usage of the information of the training distribution. Our method can be extended to other cases. Specifically, with the Transformer's context window S, we prove a generalization bound of mathcal{O}(min{S, T/(n T)}) on n tasks with sequences of length T, providing sharper analysis compared to previous results of mathcal{O}(1/n). Empirically, we illustrate that while the trained Transformer behaves as the Bayes-optimal solution as a natural consequence of supervised training in distribution, it does not necessarily perform a Bayesian inference when facing task shifts, in contrast to the equivalence between these two proposed in many existing literature. We also demonstrate the trained Transformer's ICL ability over covariates shift and prompt-length shift and interpret them as a generalization over a meta distribution.

Time series forecasting (TSF) remains a challenging and largely unsolved problem in machine learning, despite significant recent efforts leveraging Large Language Models (LLMs), which predominantly rely on Transformer architectures. Empirical evidence consistently shows that even powerful Transformers often fail to outperform much simpler models, e.g., linear models, on TSF tasks; however, a rigorous theoretical understanding of this phenomenon remains limited. In this paper, we provide a theoretical analysis of Transformers' limitations for TSF through the lens of In-Context Learning (ICL) theory. Specifically, under AR(p) data, we establish that: (1) Linear Self-Attention (LSA) models cannot achieve lower expected MSE than classical linear models for in-context forecasting; (2) as the context length approaches to infinity, LSA asymptotically recovers the optimal linear predictor; and (3) under Chain-of-Thought (CoT) style inference, predictions collapse to the mean exponentially. We empirically validate these findings through carefully designed experiments. Our theory not only sheds light on several previously underexplored phenomena but also offers practical insights for designing more effective forecasting architectures. We hope our work encourages the broader research community to revisit the fundamental theoretical limitations of TSF and to critically evaluate the direct application of increasingly sophisticated architectures without deeper scrutiny.

Bounding boxes uniquely characterize object detection, where a good detector gives accurate bounding boxes of categories of interest. However, in the real-world where test ground truths are not provided, it is non-trivial to find out whether bounding boxes are accurate, thus preventing us from assessing the detector generalization ability. In this work, we find under feature map dropout, good detectors tend to output bounding boxes whose locations do not change much, while bounding boxes of poor detectors will undergo noticeable position changes. We compute the box stability score (BoS score) to reflect this stability. Specifically, given an image, we compute a normal set of bounding boxes and a second set after feature map dropout. To obtain BoS score, we use bipartite matching to find the corresponding boxes between the two sets and compute the average Intersection over Union (IoU) across the entire test set. We contribute to finding that BoS score has a strong, positive correlation with detection accuracy measured by mean average precision (mAP) under various test environments. This relationship allows us to predict the accuracy of detectors on various real-world test sets without accessing test ground truths, verified on canonical detection tasks such as vehicle detection and pedestrian detection. Code and data are available at https://github.com/YangYangGirl/BoS.

Most black-box optimization methods require extensive hyperparameter tuning, often limiting their ability to generalize across different optimization domains. Foundation models for black-box optimization that learn optimization principles from a large collection of optimization trajectories offer a promising alternative, with the potential to outperform manually designed methods across diverse problem classes. However, prior work has either relied on non-public datasets or on purely synthetic data, limiting reproducibility and generalization to real-world problems. As a result, progress in this area has been constrained by the lack of large-scale, real-world, publicly available pre-training data. We introduce BBO-Pile, the first open-source dataset comprising over 500K optimization trajectories evaluated across 3095 different black-boxes for different optimizers, which represents by far the largest public dataset for this task. Using this dataset, we train a family of foundation models at multiple scales, ranging from 2M to 80M parameters and from 200M to 2B training tokens, and study their scaling behavior with respect to compute. Our results demonstrate that large-scale pre-training is a viable and effective approach to imitate black-box optimization methods, paving the way for future research in this direction.

Transformer-like models for vision tasks have recently proven effective for a wide range of downstream applications such as segmentation and detection. Previous works have shown that segmentation properties emerge in vision transformers (ViTs) trained using self-supervised methods such as DINO, but not in those trained on supervised classification tasks. In this study, we probe whether segmentation emerges in transformer-based models solely as a result of intricate self-supervised learning mechanisms, or if the same emergence can be achieved under much broader conditions through proper design of the model architecture. Through extensive experimental results, we demonstrate that when employing a white-box transformer-like architecture known as CRATE, whose design explicitly models and pursues low-dimensional structures in the data distribution, segmentation properties, at both the whole and parts levels, already emerge with a minimalistic supervised training recipe. Layer-wise finer-grained analysis reveals that the emergent properties strongly corroborate the designed mathematical functions of the white-box network. Our results suggest a path to design white-box foundation models that are simultaneously highly performant and mathematically fully interpretable. Code is at https://github.com/Ma-Lab-Berkeley/CRATE.

In light of recent work on scheduling with predicted job sizes, we consider the effect of the cost of predictions in queueing systems, removing the assumption in prior research that predictions are external to the system's resources and/or cost-free. In particular, we introduce a novel approach to utilizing predictions, SkipPredict, designed to address their inherent cost. Rather than uniformly applying predictions to all jobs, we propose a tailored approach that categorizes jobs based on their prediction requirements. To achieve this, we employ one-bit "cheap predictions" to classify jobs as either short or long. SkipPredict prioritizes predicted short jobs over long jobs, and for the latter, SkipPredict applies a second round of more detailed "expensive predictions" to approximate Shortest Remaining Processing Time for these jobs. Our analysis takes into account the cost of prediction. We examine the effect of this cost for two distinct models. In the external cost model, predictions are generated by some external method without impacting job service times but incur a cost. In the server time cost model, predictions themselves require server processing time, and are scheduled on the same server as the jobs.

Chain-of-Thought (CoT) reasoning enables Large Language Models (LLMs) to solve complex reasoning tasks by generating intermediate reasoning steps. However, most existing approaches focus on hard token decoding, which constrains reasoning within the discrete vocabulary space and may not always be optimal. While recent efforts explore continuous-space reasoning, they often suffer from catastrophic forgetting, limiting their applicability to state-of-the-art LLMs that already perform well in zero-shot settings with a proper instruction. To address this challenge, we propose a novel approach for continuous-space reasoning that does not require modifying the underlying LLM. Specifically, we employ a lightweight assistant model to generate instance-specific soft thought tokens speculatively as the initial chain of thoughts, which are then mapped into the LLM's representation space via a projection module. Experimental results on five reasoning benchmarks demonstrate that our method enhances LLM reasoning performance through supervised, parameter-efficient fine-tuning.

Video prediction is increasingly viewed as a path toward generalizable world models, yet it remains unclear whether these systems learn underlying causal structure or merely exploit superficial visual correlations for future prediction. We introduce CRONOS, an intervention-based benchmark designed to evaluate counterfactual physical consistency: whether a model's predictions of physical events respond appropriately to controlled changes in the visual input, such as variations of scene context, viewpoint, object appearance, and object category. Built in a photorealistic Unreal Engine environment, CRONOS enables controlled, high-fidelity generation of videos across diverse scenes and dynamics. In contrast to previous benchmarks, CRONOS systematically intervenes on four key factors - viewpoint, scene, object category, and object appearance - while keeping the underlying physical event type, such as a collision, occlusion, or fall, fixed. Our evaluation of recent open-source video generators reveals substantial failures in counterfactual physical consistency: prediction quality for the same physical event type is affected by appearance, environment, and, particularly by viewpoint changes. CRONOS provides a controlled and reproducible testbed for diagnosing how the quality of generated videos changes for different interventions, establishing a concrete target for developing models that perform consistently across changes of multiple conditions. The dataset and code are available at our project page.

In recent years, there has been a rapidly expanding focus on explaining the predictions made by black-box AI systems that handle image and tabular data. However, considerably less attention has been paid to explaining the predictions of opaque AI systems handling time series data. In this paper, we advance a novel model-agnostic, case-based technique -- Native Guide -- that generates counterfactual explanations for time series classifiers. Given a query time series, T_{q}, for which a black-box classification system predicts class, c, a counterfactual time series explanation shows how T_{q} could change, such that the system predicts an alternative class, c'. The proposed instance-based technique adapts existing counterfactual instances in the case-base by highlighting and modifying discriminative areas of the time series that underlie the classification. Quantitative and qualitative results from two comparative experiments indicate that Native Guide generates plausible, proximal, sparse and diverse explanations that are better than those produced by key benchmark counterfactual methods.

Evaluating neural network performance is critical to deep neural network design but a costly procedure. Neural predictors provide an efficient solution by treating architectures as samples and learning to estimate their performance on a given task. However, existing predictors are task-dependent, predominantly estimating neural network performance on image classification benchmarks. They are also search-space dependent; each predictor is designed to make predictions for a specific architecture search space with predefined topologies and set of operations. In this paper, we propose a novel All-in-One Predictor (AIO-P), which aims to pretrain neural predictors on architecture examples from multiple, separate computer vision (CV) task domains and multiple architecture spaces, and then transfer to unseen downstream CV tasks or neural architectures. We describe our proposed techniques for general graph representation, efficient predictor pretraining and knowledge infusion techniques, as well as methods to transfer to downstream tasks/spaces. Extensive experimental results show that AIO-P can achieve Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Spearman's Rank Correlation (SRCC) below 1% and above 0.5, respectively, on a breadth of target downstream CV tasks with or without fine-tuning, outperforming a number of baselines. Moreover, AIO-P can directly transfer to new architectures not seen during training, accurately rank them and serve as an effective performance estimator when paired with an algorithm designed to preserve performance while reducing FLOPs.

Language model evaluation is a daunting task: prompts are brittle, corpus-level perplexities are vague, and the choice of benchmarks are endless. Finding examples that show meaningful, generalizable differences between two LMs is crucial to understanding where one model succeeds and another fails. Can this process be done automatically? In this work, we propose methodology for automated comparison of language models that uses performance-aware contextual embeddings to find fine-grained features of text where one LM outperforms another. Our method, which we name BehaviorBox, extracts coherent features that demonstrate differences with respect to the ease of generation between two LMs. Specifically, BehaviorBox finds features that describe groups of words in fine-grained contexts, such as "conditional 'were' in the phrase 'if you were'" and "exclamation marks after emotional statements", where one model outperforms another within a particular datatset. We apply BehaviorBox to compare models that vary in size, model family, and post-training, and enumerate insights into specific contexts that illustrate meaningful differences in performance which cannot be found by measures such as corpus-level perplexity alone.

Real-world scenarios are usually accompanied by continuously appearing classes with scare labeled samples, which require the machine learning model to incrementally learn new classes and maintain the knowledge of base classes. In this Few-Shot Class-Incremental Learning (FSCIL) scenario, existing methods either introduce extra learnable components or rely on a frozen feature extractor to mitigate catastrophic forgetting and overfitting problems. However, we find a tendency for existing methods to misclassify the samples of new classes into base classes, which leads to the poor performance of new classes. In other words, the strong discriminability of base classes distracts the classification of new classes. To figure out this intriguing phenomenon, we observe that although the feature extractor is only trained on base classes, it can surprisingly represent the semantic similarity between the base and unseen new classes. Building upon these analyses, we propose a simple yet effective Training-frEE calibratioN (TEEN) strategy to enhance the discriminability of new classes by fusing the new prototypes (i.e., mean features of a class) with weighted base prototypes. In addition to standard benchmarks in FSCIL, TEEN demonstrates remarkable performance and consistent improvements over baseline methods in the few-shot learning scenario. Code is available at: https://github.com/wangkiw/TEEN

We show that classifiers trained with random region proposals achieve state-of-the-art Open-world Object Detection (OWOD): they can not only maintain the accuracy of the known objects (w/ training labels), but also considerably improve the recall of unknown ones (w/o training labels). Specifically, we propose RandBox, a Fast R-CNN based architecture trained on random proposals at each training iteration, surpassing existing Faster R-CNN and Transformer based OWOD. Its effectiveness stems from the following two benefits introduced by randomness. First, as the randomization is independent of the distribution of the limited known objects, the random proposals become the instrumental variable that prevents the training from being confounded by the known objects. Second, the unbiased training encourages more proposal explorations by using our proposed matching score that does not penalize the random proposals whose prediction scores do not match the known objects. On two benchmarks: Pascal-VOC/MS-COCO and LVIS, RandBox significantly outperforms the previous state-of-the-art in all metrics. We also detail the ablations on randomization and loss designs. Codes are available at https://github.com/scuwyh2000/RandBox.

Modern machine learning requires system designers to specify aspects of the learning pipeline, such as losses, architectures, and optimizers. Meta-learning, or learning-to-learn, instead aims to learn those aspects, and promises to unlock greater capabilities with less manual effort. One particularly ambitious goal of meta-learning is to train general-purpose in-context learning algorithms from scratch, using only black-box models with minimal inductive bias. Such a model takes in training data, and produces test-set predictions across a wide range of problems, without any explicit definition of an inference model, training loss, or optimization algorithm. In this paper we show that Transformers and other black-box models can be meta-trained to act as general-purpose in-context learners. We characterize transitions between algorithms that generalize, algorithms that memorize, and algorithms that fail to meta-train at all, induced by changes in model size, number of tasks, and meta-optimization. We further show that the capabilities of meta-trained algorithms are bottlenecked by the accessible state size (memory) determining the next prediction, unlike standard models which are thought to be bottlenecked by parameter count. Finally, we propose practical interventions such as biasing the training distribution that improve the meta-training and meta-generalization of general-purpose in-context learning algorithms.

To reach top accuracy, current fully supervised instance segmentation methods severely rely on large-scale pixel-wise labeled datasets. They are usually expensive and time-consuming to obtain. Though weakly or semi-supervised methods utilize cheap bounding box labeled, image-level labeled or unlabeled samples to save the labeling cost, their performance is largely sacrificed. To save labeling cost without losing much performance, in this paper, we present a pipeline that can utilize economical bounding box labels and accurate pixel-wise labels in a hybrid way. Specifically, we design two ancillary models to learn label noise suppression and obtain accurate pseudo pixel-wise labels from bounding box labels for training. One is designed to suppress mislabeling between foreground and background, and the other is designed to suppress noise from mislabeling of instances. Moreover, we exploit category-aware spatial attention module, category constraint module, instance constraint module, and self-learning training approach to improve the accuracy of pseudo labels. Experiments on the PASCAL VOC 2012 and the Cityscapes datasets show that our method can achieve competitive performance with much less labeling cost.

This paper introduces Qwen-GUI-3B, a lightweight Vision-Language Model (VLM) specifically designed for Graphical User Interface grounding tasks, achieving performance competitive with significantly larger models. Unlike large-scale VLMs (>7B parameters) that are computationally intensive and impractical for consumer-grade hardware, Qwen-GUI-3B delivers strong grounding accuracy while being fully trainable on a single GPU (RTX 4090). The model incorporates several key innovations: (i) combine cross-platform, multi-resolution dataset of 24K examples from diverse sources including mobile, desktop, and web GUI screenshots to effectively address data scarcity in high-resolution desktop environments; (ii) a two-stage fine-tuning strategy, where initial cross-platform training establishes robust GUI understanding, followed by specialized fine-tuning on high-resolution data to significantly enhance model adaptability; and (iii) data curation and redundancy reduction strategies, demonstrating that randomly sampling a smaller subset with reduced redundancy achieves performance comparable to larger datasets, emphasizing data diversity over sheer volume. Empirical evaluation on standard GUI grounding benchmarks-including ScreenSpot, ScreenSpot-v2, and the challenging ScreenSpot-Pro, highlights Qwen-GUI-3B's exceptional accuracy, achieving 84.9% on ScreenSpot and 86.4% on ScreenSpot-v2, surpassing prior models under 4B parameters. Ablation studies validate the critical role of balanced sampling and two-stage fine-tuning in enhancing robustness, particularly in high-resolution desktop scenarios. The Qwen-GUI-3B is available at: https://github.com/Han1018/Qwen-GUI-3B

This technical report describes our QuAVF@NTU-NVIDIA submission to the Ego4D Talking to Me (TTM) Challenge 2023. Based on the observation from the TTM task and the provided dataset, we propose to use two separate models to process the input videos and audio. By doing so, we can utilize all the labeled training data, including those without bounding box labels. Furthermore, we leverage the face quality score from a facial landmark prediction model for filtering noisy face input data. The face quality score is also employed in our proposed quality-aware fusion for integrating the results from two branches. With the simple architecture design, our model achieves 67.4% mean average precision (mAP) on the test set, which ranks first on the leaderboard and outperforms the baseline method by a large margin. Code is available at: https://github.com/hsi-che-lin/Ego4D-QuAVF-TTM-CVPR23