Daily Papers

The Platonic Representation Hypothesis (PRH) holds that as models scale, representations of heterogeneous networks converge toward a shared model of reality. We propose its sequel and boundary, the Capability Convergence Hypothesis (CCH): under a fixed per-token inference budget, representational convergence does not entail capability convergence. Capability instead converges toward a class, the access-complete hybrid: any architecture holding both a compressive O(1)-state channel and a scalable verbatim-index channel. We anchor it on a witness task, the Newton's-apple problem in an infinite stream, and name three resource walls: a Shannon wall barring any o(Nb)-state architecture, a horizon wall barring any fixed window, and a circuit wall barring fixed-depth attention-only composition (conditional on TC0 != NC1). Under an explicit separability assumption a hybrid crosses all three by paying each wall's price, so capability is strictly super-additive under composition. We separate what we prove from what we conjecture: the access-completeness principle rests on information-theoretic lower bounds and pre-registered experiments, while the field-level convergence trend is an economics-motivated conjecture. We report the first pre-registered small-scale tests under criteria frozen before the data: the predicted scissors gap is measured (exact-retrieval error 0.994 vs. 0.000 once a 64-scalar state gains one global-attention layer), the state-tracking bifurcation lands at the registered boundary, and a conjunction witness shows an irreducibly two-channel solution; one prediction failed with its direction reversed and is reported as such. Representational convergence is given freely by scale; capability convergence must be purchased by access structure.

Diffusion Large Language Models (dLLMs) have recently become a promising alternative to autoregressive large language models (ARMs). Semi-autoregressive (Semi-AR) decoding is widely employed in base dLLMs and advanced decoding strategies due to its superior performance. However, our observations reveal that Semi-AR decoding suffers from inherent block constraints, which cause the decoding of many cross-block stable tokens to be unnecessarily delayed. To address this challenge, we systematically investigate the identification of stable tokens and present three key findings: (1) naive lookahead decoding is unreliable, (2) token stability closely correlates with convergence trend, and (3) historical information is isolated. Building on these insights, we propose Anchor-based History-stable Decoding (AHD), a training-free, plug-and-play dynamic decoding strategy. Specifically, AHD monitors the stability trend of tokens in real time through dynamic anchors. Once a token reaches stability, it initiates early cross-block decoding to enhance efficiency and performance. Extensive experiments across language, vision-language, and audio-language domains demonstrate that AHD simultaneously improves both performance and inference efficiency. Notably, AHD effectively reverses the performance degradation typically observed in existing advanced decoding acceleration strategies. For instance, on the BBH benchmark, our approach reduces decoding steps by 80% while improving performance by 3.67%.

Federated learning (FL) is a trending training paradigm to utilize decentralized training data. FL allows clients to update model parameters locally for several epochs, then share them to a global model for aggregation. This training paradigm with multi-local step updating before aggregation exposes unique vulnerabilities to adversarial attacks. Adversarial training is a popular and effective method to improve the robustness of networks against adversaries. In this work, we formulate a general form of federated adversarial learning (FAL) that is adapted from adversarial learning in the centralized setting. On the client side of FL training, FAL has an inner loop to generate adversarial samples for adversarial training and an outer loop to update local model parameters. On the server side, FAL aggregates local model updates and broadcast the aggregated model. We design a global robust training loss and formulate FAL training as a min-max optimization problem. Unlike the convergence analysis in classical centralized training that relies on the gradient direction, it is significantly harder to analyze the convergence in FAL for three reasons: 1) the complexity of min-max optimization, 2) model not updating in the gradient direction due to the multi-local updates on the client-side before aggregation and 3) inter-client heterogeneity. We address these challenges by using appropriate gradient approximation and coupling techniques and present the convergence analysis in the over-parameterized regime. Our main result theoretically shows that the minimum loss under our algorithm can converge to epsilon small with chosen learning rate and communication rounds. It is noteworthy that our analysis is feasible for non-IID clients.

The Platonic Representation Hypothesis suggests that neural networks trained on different modalities (e.g., text and images) align and eventually converge toward the same representation of reality. If true, this has significant implications for whether modality choice matters at all. We show that the experimental evidence for this hypothesis is fragile and depends critically on the evaluation regime. Alignment is measured using mutual nearest neighbors on small datasets (approx1K samples) and degrades substantially as the dataset is scaled to millions of samples. The alignment that remains between model representations reflects coarse semantic overlap rather than consistent fine-grained structure. Moreover, the evaluations in Huh et al. are done in a one-to-one image-caption setting, a constraint that breaks down in realistic many-to-many settings and further reduces alignment. We also find that the reported trend of stronger language models increasingly aligning with vision does not appear to hold for newer models. Overall, our findings suggest that the current evidence for cross-modal representational convergence is considerably weaker than subsequent works have taken it to be. Models trained on different modalities may learn equally rich representations of the world, just not the same one.

Statistical inference for non-stationary data is hindered by the failure of classical central limit theorems (CLTs), not least because there is no fixed Gaussian limit to converge to. To resolve this, we introduce relative weak convergence, an extension of weak convergence that compares a statistic or process to a sequence of evolving processes. Relative weak convergence retains the essential consequences of classical weak convergence and coincides with it under stationarity. Crucially, it applies in general non-stationary settings where classical weak convergence fails. We establish concrete relative CLTs for random vectors and empirical processes, along with sequential, weighted, and bootstrap variants, that parallel the state-of-the-art in stationary settings. Our framework and results offer simple, plug-in replacements for classical CLTs whenever stationarity is untenable, as illustrated by applications in nonparametric trend estimation and hypothesis testing.

Web-based applications such as chatbots, search engines and news recommendations continue to grow in scale and complexity with the recent surge in the adoption of LLMs. Online model selection has thus garnered increasing attention due to the need to choose the best model among a diverse set while balancing task reward and exploration cost. Organizations faces decisions like whether to employ a costly API-based LLM or a locally finetuned small LLM, weighing cost against performance. Traditional selection methods often evaluate every candidate model before choosing one, which are becoming impractical given the rising costs of training and finetuning LLMs. Moreover, it is undesirable to allocate excessive resources towards exploring poor-performing models. While some recent works leverage online bandit algorithm to manage such exploration-exploitation trade-off in model selection, they tend to overlook the increasing-then-converging trend in model performances as the model is iteratively finetuned, leading to less accurate predictions and suboptimal model selections. In this paper, we propose a time-increasing bandit algorithm TI-UCB, which effectively predicts the increase of model performances due to finetuning and efficiently balances exploration and exploitation in model selection. To further capture the converging points of models, we develop a change detection mechanism by comparing consecutive increase predictions. We theoretically prove that our algorithm achieves a logarithmic regret upper bound in a typical increasing bandit setting, which implies a fast convergence rate. The advantage of our method is also empirically validated through extensive experiments on classification model selection and online selection of LLMs. Our results highlight the importance of utilizing increasing-then-converging pattern for more efficient and economic model selection in the deployment of LLMs.

Synthetic data has been increasingly used to train frontier generative models. However, recent studies raise key concerns that iteratively retraining a generative model on its self-generated synthetic data may keep deteriorating model performance, a phenomenon often coined model collapse. In this paper, we investigate ways to modify the synthetic retraining process to avoid model collapse, and even possibly help reverse the trend from collapse to improvement. Our key finding is that by injecting information through an external synthetic data verifier, whether a human or a better model, synthetic retraining will not cause model collapse. Specifically, we situate our theoretical analysis in the fundamental linear regression setting, showing that verifier-guided retraining can yield near-term improvements, but ultimately drives the parameter estimate to the verifier's "knowledge center" in the long run. Our theory further predicts that, unless the verifier is perfectly reliable, these early gains will plateau and may even reverse. Indeed, our experiments across linear regression, Variational Autoencoders (VAEs) trained on MNIST, and fining-tuning SmolLM2-135M on the XSUM task confirm these theoretical insights.

Rotary Positional Embedding (RoPE) is a common choice in transformer architectures for encoding relative positional information. Although earlier work has examined omitting RoPE in specific layers, the effect of varying the fraction of hidden dimensions that receive rotary transformations remains largely unexplored. This design choice can yield substantial memory savings, which becomes especially significant at long context lengths. We find up to 10x memory savings over the standard RoPE cache, while achieving comparable final loss. In this work, we present a systematic study examining the impact of partial RoPE on training dynamics and convergence across architectures and datasets. Our findings uncover several notable patterns: (1) applying RoPE to only a small fraction of dimensions (around 10%) achieves convergence comparable to using full RoPE; (2) these trends hold consistently across model size, sequence lengths and datasets of varying quality and architectures, with higher-quality data resulting in lower overall loss and similar benchmark performance; and (3) some models trained with NoPE (No Positional Encoding) showcase unstable learning trajectories, which can be alleviated through minimal RoPE application or QK-Norm which converges to a higher loss. Together, these results offer practical guidance for model designers aiming to balance efficiency and training stability, while emphasizing the previously overlooked importance of partial RoPE.

Several recent trends in machine learning theory and practice, from the design of state-of-the-art Gaussian Process to the convergence analysis of deep neural nets (DNNs) under stochastic gradient descent (SGD), have found it fruitful to study wide random neural networks. Central to these approaches are certain scaling limits of such networks. We unify these results by introducing a notion of a straightline tensor program that can express most neural network computations, and we characterize its scaling limit when its tensors are large and randomized. From our framework follows (1) the convergence of random neural networks to Gaussian processes for architectures such as recurrent neural networks, convolutional neural networks, residual networks, attention, and any combination thereof, with or without batch normalization; (2) conditions under which the gradient independence assumption -- that weights in backpropagation can be assumed to be independent from weights in the forward pass -- leads to correct computation of gradient dynamics, and corrections when it does not; (3) the convergence of the Neural Tangent Kernel, a recently proposed kernel used to predict training dynamics of neural networks under gradient descent, at initialization for all architectures in (1) without batch normalization. Mathematically, our framework is general enough to rederive classical random matrix results such as the semicircle and the Marchenko-Pastur laws, as well as recent results in neural network Jacobian singular values. We hope our work opens a way toward design of even stronger Gaussian Processes, initialization schemes to avoid gradient explosion/vanishing, and deeper understanding of SGD dynamics in modern architectures.

The equivalence of realizable and agnostic learnability is a fundamental phenomenon in learning theory. With variants ranging from classical settings like PAC learning and regression to recent trends such as adversarially robust learning, it's surprising that we still lack a unified theory; traditional proofs of the equivalence tend to be disparate, and rely on strong model-specific assumptions like uniform convergence and sample compression. In this work, we give the first model-independent framework explaining the equivalence of realizable and agnostic learnability: a three-line blackbox reduction that simplifies, unifies, and extends our understanding across a wide variety of settings. This includes models with no known characterization of learnability such as learning with arbitrary distributional assumptions and more general loss functions, as well as a host of other popular settings such as robust learning, partial learning, fair learning, and the statistical query model. More generally, we argue that the equivalence of realizable and agnostic learning is actually a special case of a broader phenomenon we call property generalization: any desirable property of a learning algorithm (e.g. noise tolerance, privacy, stability) that can be satisfied over finite hypothesis classes extends (possibly in some variation) to any learnable hypothesis class.

This paper presents a comprehensive comparison of three dominant parallel programming models in High Performance Computing (HPC): Message Passing Interface (MPI), Open Multi-Processing (OpenMP), and Compute Unified Device Architecture (CUDA). Selecting optimal programming approaches for modern heterogeneous HPC architectures has become increasingly critical. We systematically analyze these models across multiple dimensions: architectural foundations, performance characteristics, domain-specific suitability, programming complexity, and recent advancements. We examine each model's strengths, weaknesses, and optimization techniques. Our investigation demonstrates that MPI excels in distributed memory environments with near-linear scalability for communication-intensive applications, but faces communication overhead challenges. OpenMP provides strong performance and usability in shared-memory systems and loop-centric tasks, though it is limited by shared memory contention. CUDA offers substantial performance gains for data-parallel GPU workloads, but is restricted to NVIDIA GPUs and requires specialized expertise. Performance evaluations across scientific simulations, machine learning, and data analytics reveal that hybrid approaches combining two or more models often yield optimal results in heterogeneous environments. The paper also discusses implementation challenges, optimization best practices, and emerging trends such as performance portability frameworks, task-based programming, and the convergence of HPC and Big Data. This research helps developers and researchers make informed decisions when selecting programming models for modern HPC applications, emphasizing that the best choice depends on application requirements, hardware, and development constraints.

We examine two properties of AI systems: capability (what a system can do) and steerability (how reliably one can shift behavior toward intended outcomes). A central question is whether capability growth reduces steerability and risks control collapse. We also distinguish between authorized steerability (builders reliably reaching intended behaviors) and unauthorized steerability (attackers eliciting disallowed behaviors). This distinction highlights a fundamental safety--security dilemma of AI models: safety requires high steerability to enforce control (e.g., stop/refuse), while security requires low steerability for malicious actors to elicit harmful behaviors. This tension presents a significant challenge for open-weight models, which currently exhibit high steerability via common techniques like fine-tuning or adversarial attacks. Using Qwen3 and InstrumentalEval, we find that a short anti-instrumental prompt suffix sharply reduces the measured convergence rate (e.g., shutdown avoidance, self-replication). For Qwen3-30B Instruct, the convergence rate drops from 81.69% under a pro-instrumental suffix to 2.82% under an anti-instrumental suffix. Under anti-instrumental prompting, larger aligned models show lower convergence rates than smaller ones (Instruct: 2.82% vs. 4.23%; Thinking: 4.23% vs. 9.86%). Code is available at github.com/j-hoscilowicz/instrumental_steering.

This paper documents and theorises a self-reinforcing dynamic between two measurable trends: the exponential expansion of large language model (LLM) context windows and the secular contraction of human sustained-attention capacity. We term the resulting asymmetry the Cognitive Divergence. AI context windows have grown from 512 tokens in 2017 to 2,000,000 tokens by 2026 (factor ~3,906; fitted lambda = 0.59/yr; doubling time ~14 months). Over the same period, human Effective Context Span (ECS) -- a token-equivalent measure derived from validated reading-rate meta-analysis (Brysbaert, 2019) and an empirically motivated Comprehension Scaling Factor -- has declined from approximately 16,000 tokens (2004 baseline) to an estimated 1,800 tokens (2026, extrapolated from longitudinal behavioural data ending 2020 (Mark, 2023); see Section 9 for uncertainty discussion). The AI-to-human ratio grew from near parity at the ChatGPT launch (November 2022) to 556--1,111x raw and 56--111x quality-adjusted, after accounting for retrieval degradation (Liu et al., 2024; Chroma, 2025). Beyond documenting this divergence, the paper introduces the Delegation Feedback Loop hypothesis: as AI capability grows, the cognitive threshold at which humans delegate to AI falls, extending to tasks of negligible demand; the resulting reduction in cognitive practice may further attenuate the capacities already documented as declining (Gerlich, 2025; Kim et al., 2026; Kosmyna et al., 2025). Neither trend reverses spontaneously. The paper characterises the divergence statistically, reviews neurobiological mechanisms across eight peer-reviewed neuroimaging studies, presents empirical evidence bearing on the delegation threshold, and proposes a research agenda centred on a validated ECS psychometric instrument and longitudinal study of AI-mediated cognitive change.

Real-world deployment of machine learning models is challenging because data evolves over time. While no model can work when data evolves in an arbitrary fashion, if there is some pattern to these changes, we might be able to design methods to address it. This paper addresses situations when data evolves gradually. We introduce a time-varying propensity score that can detect gradual shifts in the distribution of data which allows us to selectively sample past data to update the model -- not just similar data from the past like that of a standard propensity score but also data that evolved in a similar fashion in the past. The time-varying propensity score is quite general: we demonstrate different ways of implementing it and evaluate it on a variety of problems ranging from supervised learning (e.g., image classification problems) where data undergoes a sequence of gradual shifts, to reinforcement learning tasks (e.g., robotic manipulation and continuous control) where data shifts as the policy or the task changes.

The endeavor of stock trend forecasting is principally focused on predicting the future trajectory of the stock market, utilizing either manual or technical methodologies to optimize profitability. Recent advancements in machine learning technologies have showcased their efficacy in discerning authentic profit signals within the realm of stock trend forecasting, predominantly employing temporal data derived from historical stock price patterns. Nevertheless, the inherently volatile and dynamic characteristics of the stock market render the learning and capture of multi-scale temporal dependencies and stable trading opportunities a formidable challenge. This predicament is primarily attributed to the difficulty in distinguishing real profit signal patterns amidst a plethora of mixed, noisy data. In response to these complexities, we propose a Multi-Scale Temporal Memory Learning and Efficient Debiasing (MTMD) model. This innovative approach encompasses the creation of a learnable embedding coupled with external attention, serving as a memory module through self-similarity. It aims to mitigate noise interference and bolster temporal consistency within the model. The MTMD model adeptly amalgamates comprehensive local data at each timestamp while concurrently focusing on salient historical patterns on a global scale. Furthermore, the incorporation of a graph network, tailored to assimilate global and local information, facilitates the adaptive fusion of heterogeneous multi-scale data. Rigorous ablation studies and experimental evaluations affirm that the MTMD model surpasses contemporary state-of-the-art methodologies by a substantial margin in benchmark datasets. The source code can be found at https://github.com/MingjieWang0606/MDMT-Public.

A growing literature argues that progress in human longevity is slowing, and that this slowdown may signal an approaching biological limit to lifespan. The argument rests on visible flattening of cumulative life expectancy records, evaluated through linear regressions or through comparisons of average gains across decades. These summaries, however, provide only weak evidence for slowing improvements, because they cannot distinguish a true from an apparent slowdown. An apparent slowdown may arise due to periods of low variance around unchanged mean annual gains. Applying a Bayesian change-point framework to annual gains, both at the best-practice frontier and separately for each record-holding country, we find no evidence that the expected annual gain has changed across nearly two centuries, but strong evidence that its variance has moved through distinct historical regimes, with progress most regular in recent decades. The recent flattening is consistent with a low-variance regime and provides little evidence for a decline in the underlying mean pace of improvement. Claims that the best-practice frontier signals a biological ceiling should therefore not rest on the recent bend in the cumulative record alone. The frontier is better read as an empirical benchmark, the highest country-specific survival achieved under observed historical conditions.

We argue that representations in AI models, particularly deep networks, are converging. First, we survey many examples of convergence in the literature: over time and across multiple domains, the ways by which different neural networks represent data are becoming more aligned. Next, we demonstrate convergence across data modalities: as vision models and language models get larger, they measure distance between datapoints in a more and more alike way. We hypothesize that this convergence is driving toward a shared statistical model of reality, akin to Plato's concept of an ideal reality. We term such a representation the platonic representation and discuss several possible selective pressures toward it. Finally, we discuss the implications of these trends, their limitations, and counterexamples to our analysis.