Daily Papers

Without writing a single line of code by a human, an example Monte Carlo simulation based application for stochastic dependence modeling with copulas is developed using a state-of-the-art large language model (LLM) fine-tuned for conversations. This includes interaction with ChatGPT in natural language and using mathematical formalism, which, under careful supervision by a human-expert, led to producing a working code in MATLAB, Python and R for sampling from a given copula model, evaluation of the model's density, performing maximum likelihood estimation, optimizing the code for parallel computing for CPUs as well as for GPUs, and visualization of the computed results. In contrast to other emerging studies that assess the accuracy of LLMs like ChatGPT on tasks from a selected area, this work rather investigates ways how to achieve a successful solution of a standard statistical task in a collaboration of a human-expert and artificial intelligence (AI). Particularly, through careful prompt engineering, we separate successful solutions generated by ChatGPT from unsuccessful ones, resulting in a comprehensive list of related pros and cons. It is demonstrated that if the typical pitfalls are avoided, we can substantially benefit from collaborating with an AI partner. For example, we show that if ChatGPT is not able to provide a correct solution due to a lack of or incorrect knowledge, the human-expert can feed it with the correct knowledge, e.g., in the form of mathematical theorems and formulas, and make it to apply the gained knowledge in order to provide a solution that is correct. Such ability presents an attractive opportunity to achieve a programmed solution even for users with rather limited knowledge of programming techniques.

Accurate uncertainty measurement is a key step to building robust and reliable machine learning systems. Conformal prediction is a distribution-free uncertainty quantification algorithm popular for its ease of implementation, statistical coverage guarantees, and versatility for underlying forecasters. However, existing conformal prediction algorithms for time series are limited to single-step prediction without considering the temporal dependency. In this paper, we propose a Copula Conformal Prediction algorithm for multivariate, multi-step Time Series forecasting, CopulaCPTS. We prove that CopulaCPTS has finite sample validity guarantee. On several synthetic and real-world multivariate time series datasets, we show that CopulaCPTS produces more calibrated and sharp confidence intervals for multi-step prediction tasks than existing techniques.

Few-step distillation for video diffusion models has attracted significant attention, driven by the urgent demand for efficient deployment in real-world scenarios. However, Distribution Matching Distillation (DMD), a leading paradigm, tends to degrade under limited NFE budgets, manifesting in video generation as layout instability, oversaturation, and broken motion dynamics. We trace this failure to a structural limitation: standard DMD is an intra-sample distribution-matching objective with coordinate-wise gradients, and thus imposes no explicit constraint on the relational geometry across batch elements or temporal frames, leaving the underlying copula largely unregulated. Combined with the mode-seeking tendency of its reverse-KL objective, this absence of relational guidance makes DMD prone to collapsing into local optima in the few-step regime. Motivated by this insight, we propose Copula-aware DMD (CoDMD), a lightweight relational regularizer that reuses score estimates already produced by the frozen teacher and the online fake model to construct pairwise relation matrices across samples and frames. These are matched through a supplementary distributional objective that requires no additional networks, datasets, or sampling trajectories. On the Wan-2.1-T2V model series at 1.3B & 14B scales, CoDMD distills 50-step teachers into 4-step students, achieving an approximate 25times speed-up while attaining VBench scores of 84.46 & 84.87, outperforming prior trajectory-based (rCM 82.81 & 84.05) and distribution-based (DMD 83.38 & 83.81) methods.

Estimating mutual information (MI) is a fundamental task in data science and machine learning. Existing estimators mainly rely on either highly flexible models (e.g., neural networks), which require large amounts of data, or overly simplified models (e.g., Gaussian copula), which fail to capture complex distributions. Drawing upon recent vector copula theory, we propose a principled interpolation between these two extremes to achieve a better trade-off between complexity and capacity. Experiments on state-of-the-art synthetic benchmarks and real-world data with diverse modalities demonstrate the advantages of the proposed estimator.

Image similarity metrics play an important role in computer vision applications, as they are used in image processing, computer vision and machine learning. Furthermore, those metrics enable tasks such as image retrieval, object recognition and quality assessment, essential in fields like healthcare, astronomy and surveillance. Existing metrics, such as PSNR, MSE, SSIM, ISSM and FSIM, often face limitations in terms of either speed, complexity or sensitivity to small changes in images. To address these challenges, a novel image similarity metric, namely CSIM, that combines real-time while being sensitive to subtle image variations is investigated in this paper. The novel metric uses Gaussian Copula from probability theory to transform an image into vectors of pixel distribution associated to local image patches. These vectors contain, in addition to intensities and pixel positions, information on the dependencies between pixel values, capturing the structural relationships within the image. By leveraging the properties of Copulas, CSIM effectively models the joint distribution of pixel intensities, enabling a more nuanced comparison of image patches making it more sensitive to local changes compared to other metrics. Experimental results demonstrate that CSIM outperforms existing similarity metrics in various image distortion scenarios, including noise, compression artifacts and blur. The metric's ability to detect subtle differences makes it suitable for applications requiring high precision, such as medical imaging, where the detection of minor anomalies can be of a high importance. The results obtained in this work can be reproduced from this Github repository: https://github.com/safouaneelg/copulasimilarity.

Predicting the dependencies between observations from multiple time series is critical for applications such as anomaly detection, financial risk management, causal analysis, or demand forecasting. However, the computational and numerical difficulties of estimating time-varying and high-dimensional covariance matrices often limits existing methods to handling at most a few hundred dimensions or requires making strong assumptions on the dependence between series. We propose to combine an RNN-based time series model with a Gaussian copula process output model with a low-rank covariance structure to reduce the computational complexity and handle non-Gaussian marginal distributions. This permits to drastically reduce the number of parameters and consequently allows the modeling of time-varying correlations of thousands of time series. We show on several real-world datasets that our method provides significant accuracy improvements over state-of-the-art baselines and perform an ablation study analyzing the contributions of the different components of our model.