Daily Papers

We uncover ELR collapse in language model pretraining: learning rate (LR) and parameter norm govern loss dynamics primarily through their ratio, the effective learning rate (ELR). When ELR is matched across runs, their loss trajectories collapse throughout training despite substantially different LRs and parameter norms. Across optimizers, architectures, datasets, and model scales, mean collapse errors are typically a few x 10^-3, below the seed-to-seed variation measured in a representative configuration. Systematic ablations identify normalization design and the timescale of LR-norm variation as key determinants of collapse precision. Controlled interventions further show that weight decay and Hyperball shape loss dynamics primarily through the ELR schedules they induce. Replacing LR with ELR enables a fitted functional scaling law (FSL) to transfer across norm-control methods. The resulting ELR-based FSL also explains delayed acceleration, a recurring effect of norm control. Together, these results establish ELR as a common coordinate linking LR scheduling, norm control, and loss dynamics.

A key challenge for the machine learning community is to understand and accelerate the training dynamics of deep networks that lead to delayed generalisation and emergent robustness to input perturbations, also known as grokking. Prior work has associated phenomena like delayed generalisation with the transition of a deep network from a linear to a feature learning regime, and emergent robustness with changes to the network's functional geometry, in particular the arrangement of the so-called linear regions in deep networks employing continuous piecewise affine nonlinearities. Here, we explain how grokking is realised in the Jacobian of a deep network and demonstrate that aligning a network's Jacobians with the training data (in the sense of cosine similarity) ensures grokking under a low-rank Jacobian assumption. Our results provide a strong theoretical motivation for the use of Jacobian regularisation in optimizing deep networks -- a method we introduce as GrokAlign -- which we show empirically to induce grokking much sooner than more conventional regularizers like weight decay. Moreover, we introduce centroid alignment as a tractable and interpretable simplification of Jacobian alignment that effectively identifies and tracks the stages of deep network training dynamics. Accompanying webpage (https://thomaswalker1.github.io/blog/grokalign.html) and code (https://github.com/ThomasWalker1/grokalign).

Long-context decoding in LLMs is IO-bound: each token re-reads an ever-growing KV cache. Prior accelerations cut bytes via compression, which lowers fidelity, or selection/eviction, which restricts what remains accessible, and both can degrade delayed recall and long-form generation. We introduce MAC-Attention, a fidelity- and access-preserving alternative that accelerates decoding by reusing prior attention computations for semantically similar recent queries. It starts with a match stage that performs pre-RoPE L2 matching over a short local window; an amend stage rectifies the reused attention by recomputing a small band near the match boundary; and a complete stage fuses the rectified results with fresh attention computed on the KV tail through a numerically stable merge. On a match hit, the compute and bandwidth complexity is constant regardless of context length. The method is model-agnostic and composes with IO-aware kernels, paged-KV managers, and MQA/GQA. Across LongBench v2 (120K), RULER (120K), and LongGenBench (16K continuous generation), compared to the latest FlashInfer library, MAC-Attention reduces KV accesses by up to 99%, cuts token generation latency by over 60% at 128K, and achieves over 14.3x attention-phase speedups, up to 2.6x end-to-end, while maintaining full-attention quality. By reusing computation, MAC-Attention delivers long-context inference that is both fast and faithful. Code is available here: https://github.com/YJHMITWEB/MAC-Attention.git

One puzzling artifact in machine learning dubbed grokking is where delayed generalization is achieved tenfolds of iterations after near perfect overfitting to the training data. Focusing on the long delay itself on behalf of machine learning practitioners, our goal is to accelerate generalization of a model under grokking phenomenon. By regarding a series of gradients of a parameter over training iterations as a random signal over time, we can spectrally decompose the parameter trajectories under gradient descent into two components: the fast-varying, overfitting-yielding component and the slow-varying, generalization-inducing component. This analysis allows us to accelerate the grokking phenomenon more than times 50 with only a few lines of code that amplifies the slow-varying components of gradients. The experiments show that our algorithm applies to diverse tasks involving images, languages, and graphs, enabling practical availability of this peculiar artifact of sudden generalization. Our code is available at https://github.com/ironjr/grokfast.

Neural network training is commonly accelerated by using multiple synchronized workers to compute gradient updates in parallel. Asynchronous methods remove synchronization overheads and improve hardware utilization at the cost of introducing gradient delay, which impedes optimization and can lead to lower final model performance. We introduce Adaptive Braking (AB), a modification for momentum-based optimizers that mitigates the effects of gradient delay. AB dynamically scales the gradient based on the alignment of the gradient and the velocity. This can dampen oscillations along high curvature directions of the loss surface, stabilizing and accelerating asynchronous training. We show that applying AB on top of SGD with momentum enables training ResNets on CIFAR-10 and ImageNet-1k with delays D geq 32 update steps with minimal drop in final test accuracy.

Model Predictive Controllers (MPC) require a good model for the controlled process. In this paper I infer inductive biases about a physical system. I use these biases to derive a new neural network architecture that can model this real system that has noise and inertia. The main inductive biases exploited here are: the delayed impact of some inputs on the system and the separability between the temporal component and how the inputs interact to produce the output of a system. The inputs are independently delayed using shifted convolutional kernels. Feature interactions are modelled using a fully connected network that does not have access to temporal information. The available data and the problem setup allow the usage of Self Supervised Learning in order to train the models. The baseline architecture is an Attention based Reccurent network adapted to work with MPC like inputs. The proposed networks are faster, better at exploiting larger data volumes and are almost as good as baseline networks in terms of prediction performance. The proposed architecture family called Delay can be used in a real scenario to control systems with delayed responses with respect to its controls or inputs. Ablation studies show that the presence of delay kernels are vital to obtain any learning in proposed architecture. Code and some experimental data are available online.

In the axion model, electromagnetic waves interacting with axions induce frequency-dependent time delays, determined by the axion mass and decay constant. These small delays are difficult to detect, making traditional methods ineffective. To address this, we computed time delays for various parameters and found a prominent dispersion signal when the wave frequency equals half the axion mass. Based on this, we developed a machine learning-based pipeline, achieving 95\% classification accuracy and demonstrating strong detection capability in low signal-to-noise data. Applying this to PSR J1933-6211, we found no axion-induced delays within current sensitivity limits. While existing constraints are limited by atomic clock resolution in radio telescopes, future advances in optical clocks and broader bandwidths will enable more extensive searches. In particular, combining high-precision optical clocks with next-generation radio telescopes, such as the Qitai Radio Telescope, could improve decay constant constraints by four orders of magnitude for axion masses in the 10^{-6} sim 10^{-4} eV range.

We present an improved analysis of the time delays between radio and X-ray flares from the supermassive black hole Sagittarius A* (Sgr A*), extending our previous shock oscillation model by incorporating Compton scattering. Our simulations predict delay times of 1-4 h between X-ray and radio flares, 20-40 min and 0.5-1 h between 334 GHz and 4.5 μm and 2-8 keV flares, and 7-20 min and 0.5-1 h between 22-43 GHz and 350 GHz radio flares, respectively, in good agreement with recent observations. The delay time between the radio emissions (synchrotron) and X-ray emissions (bremsstrahlung) is interpreted as the transit time for sound waves traveling from the central core near the event horizon to the location of the oscillating shock. Additionally, the delay time observed between different radio wavelengths corresponds to the transit time of sound waves moving between the frequency-dependent effective radii R_{rm eff}(ν), where the optical thickness τ_ν(R) at frequency ν equals one on the surface of the accretion disc. The X-ray emission and the radio emission at lower frequencies peak later than the radio emission at higher frequencies. This delay occurs because the acoustic perturbations created by synchrotron emission peak near the event horizon and then expand outward. Conversely, an inverse delay happens when the acoustic waves generated by the upstream shock wave travel toward the event horizon. The predicted delay times from this interpretation qualitatively match the numerical results obtained in simulations.

Regulatory institutions (from content moderation platforms to financial supervisors) observe, deliberate, and intervene only after a characteristic delay. We ask whether this processing lag alone can destabilize a multi-agent system that would otherwise remain stable, without exogenous shocks, coordination among agents, or malicious actors. We study this question in two stages. First, we analyze a delayed replicator equation in which autonomous agents receive a benefit from radical behavior but face punishment based on a lagged institutional alarm signal. We derive a closed-form critical delay threshold beyond which the unique interior equilibrium loses stability through a Hopf bifurcation, and prove via center manifold reduction that the bifurcation is supercritical (producing bounded oscillations, not explosive growth) for the entire sigmoid response-function family. Second, we embed N=240 agents on a network and equip them with reinforcement learning (tabular Q-learning), comparing three decision architectures in a factorial design: non-reactive agents (fixed policy), reactive agents (threshold heuristic without memory), and Q-learning agents (adaptive with cumulative value estimates). The results reveal a hierarchy opposite to the naive expectation that learning amplifies instability: non-reactive agents are immune to delay (0% runaway across all tested values), reactive agents collapse catastrophically (96% runaway by delay geq 8 steps), and Q-learning agents achieve partial resilience (66% runaway at delay = 20). The destabilizing ingredient is reactivity to delayed signals: agents that immediately exploit low-alarm windows trigger oscillatory feedback loops. Learning buffers this through implicit punishment memory encoded in Q-values

Accident anticipation aims to recognize anomalous driving cues before a crash while avoiding false alarms during normal driving. Existing approaches typically formulate this task as binary classification, focusing on whether an accident will occur rather than when it will occur. We propose PRE-ACT, a framework that models accident risk as a continuously evolving signal that increases as the crash approaches. By explicitly enforcing temporal ordering and distance-to-accident awareness, our method progressively raises risk while suppressing premature alarms, leading to significant improvements on MM-AU subsets and Nexar. We further introduce a Separation Score to evaluate the global behavior of predicted risk curves beyond local temporal windows. Code and visualizations are available at https://github.com/giddyyupp/PRE-ACT.

We develop a predictor-feedback cooperative adaptive cruise control (CACC) design relying on a multiple-predecessor-following (MPF) topology-based nominal delay-free CACC law. We consider vehicular platoons with heterogeneous vehicles, whose dynamics are described by a third-order linear system subject to actuation delay, along with vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) communication delay. The design achieves individual vehicle stability, string stability, and zero, steady-state speed/spacing tracking errors, for any value of the actuation delay. The proofs of individual vehicle stability, string stability, and regulation rely on employment of an input-output approach on the frequency domain, capitalizing on the delay-compensating property of the design, which enables as to derive explicit string stability conditions on control and vehicle models parameters. The theoretical guarantees of string stability and the respective conditions on parameters are illustrated also numerically. We present consistent simulation results, for a ten-vehicle platoon, illustrating the potential of the design in traffic throughput improvement, as compared with a predictor-feedback CACC design in which, each ego vehicle's controller utilizes information only from a single preceding vehicle. We also present simulation results in a realistic scenario in which the leading vehicle's trajectory is obtained from NGSIM data.

Aims: The aim of the present study is to explore how to disentangle energy-dependent time delays due to a possible Lorentz invariance violation (LIV) at Planck scale from intrinsic delays expected in standard blazar flares. Methods: We first characterise intrinsic time delays in BL Lacs and Flat Spectrum Radio Quasars in standard one-zone time-dependent synchrotron self-Compton or external Compton models, during flares produced by particle acceleration and cooling processes. We simulate families of flares with both intrinsic and external LIV-induced energy-dependent delays. Discrimination between intrinsic and LIV delays is then investigated in two different ways. A technique based on Euclidean distance calculation between delays obtained in the synchrotron and in the inverse-Compton spectral bumps is used to assess their degree of correlation. A complementary study is performed using spectral hardness versus intensity diagrams in both energy ranges. Results: We show that the presence of non-negligible LIV effects, which essentially act only at very high energies (VHE), can drastically reduce the strong correlation expected between the X-ray and the VHE gamma-ray emission in leptonic scenarios. The LIV phenomenon can then be hinted at measuring the Euclidean distance d_{E} from simultaneous X-ray and gamma-ray flare monitoring. Large values of minimal distance d_{E,min} would directly indicate the influence of non-intrinsic time delays possibly due to LIV in SSC flares. LIV effects can also significantly modify the VHE hysteresis patterns in hardness-intensity diagrams and even change their direction of rotation as compared to the X-ray behaviour. Both observables could be used to discriminate between LIV and intrinsic delays, provided high quality flare observations are available.

Strong gravitational lensing of variable sources, such as quasars or supernovae, can be used to constrain cosmological parameters through a technique known as "time-delay cosmography''. Competitive constraints on the Hubble constant have been achieved with electromagnetic observations of lensed quasars and lensed supernovae. Gravitational wave (GW) astronomy may open up a new channel for time-delay cosmography with GW signal replacing the electromagnetic (EM) one. We highlight the similarities of using GW signals to be applied to time-delay cosmography compared to EM signal. We then discuss key differences between GW and EM signals and their resulting advantages and inconveniences from the angle of the current state-of-the-art using quasars and lensed supernovae for time-delay cosmography. We identify the astrometric precision requirement of the images as a key challenge to overcome and highlight the potentially significant impact that near-perfect time-delay measurements of lensed GWs can bring to the table.

A scuba diver holding constant depth balances on an unstable equilibrium: the gas carried in the suit and buoyancy compensator compresses with depth, so the buoyant force falls as the diver sinks and rises as the diver ascends. We represent the diver as a proportional-derivative controller that regulates this compressible-buoyancy saddle after a finite reaction delay, and we derive the governing delay differential equation from the vertical force balance and the isothermal gas law, reducing it to a damping ratio, two control gains, and a dimensionless delay. The characteristic spectrum, obtained by pseudospectral collocation of the semigroup generator and checked against a direct Newton solution of the characteristic equation, locates the Hopf boundary that separates stable hovering from sustained porpoising; for the baseline diver the critical reaction delay is 3.36 s and the onset period is 28.8 s. The bifurcation is supercritical, and because the saturating force is the quadratic hydrodynamic drag, the limit-cycle amplitude grows in proportion to the delay excess rather than as its square root. The safe-operating envelope shows that runaway ascent is triggered by saturation of the compensator, not by loss of linear stability, so a stable and an unstable diver can share the same escape threshold. As onset is approached, the lag-one autocorrelation and variance rise while the fitted recovery rate falls and matches the spectral abscissa, giving an eigenvalue-exact early warning of the transition.

Multi-agent large language model (LLM) systems often rely on verifier and critic agents to suppress hallucinations, but verification is delayed. During this delay, false claims can propagate through the agent network. We model this process as delayed consensus on a graph with grounded corrector nodes. Spectral decomposition by the grounded Laplacian yields a closed-form stability threshold for the verification dose: correction that is too strong or too delayed can turn consensus into oscillation. The most unstable regime occurs when the communication and verification delays coincide; for delay two, the threshold is the inverse golden ratio. The same framework gives a supermodular placement objective and a greedy (1-1/e)-approximation rule for assigning a limited corrector budget to influential nodes. Experiments across five open models confirm the predicted dose-delay oscillations. By contrast, grounded factual answering makes truth an absorbing boundary and eliminates the effect, suggesting that the instability is specific to signed-belief tasks while grounded verification remains stabilizing

Reinforcement learning (RL) holds significant promise for training LLM agents to handle complex, goal-oriented tasks that require multi-step interactions with external environments. However, a critical challenge when applying RL to these agentic tasks arises from delayed rewards: feedback signals are typically available only after the entire task is completed. This makes it non-trivial to assign delayed rewards to earlier actions, providing insufficient guidance regarding environmental constraints and hindering agent training. In this work, we draw on the insight that the ultimate completion of a task emerges from the cumulative progress an agent makes across individual steps. We propose Stepwise Progress Attribution (SPA), a general reward redistribution framework that decomposes the final reward into stepwise contributions, each reflecting its incremental progress toward overall task completion. To achieve this, we train a progress estimator that accumulates stepwise contributions over a trajectory to match the task completion. During policy optimization, we combine the estimated per-step contribution with a grounding signal for actions executed in the environment as the fine-grained, intermediate reward for effective agent training. Extensive experiments on common agent benchmarks (including Webshop, ALFWorld, and VirtualHome) demonstrate that SPA consistently outperforms the state-of-the-art method in both success rate (+2.5\% on average) and grounding accuracy (+1.9\% on average). Further analyses demonstrate that our method remarkably provides more effective intermediate rewards for RL training. Our code is available at https://github.com/WangHanLinHenry/SPA-RL-Agent.

Accurate air quality forecasting is essential for public health and environmental sustainability, but remains challenging due to the complex pollutant dynamics. Existing deep learning methods often model pollutant dynamics as an instantaneous process, overlooking the intrinsic delays in pollutant propagation. Thus, we propose AirDDE, the first neural delay differential equation framework in this task that integrates delay modeling into a continuous-time pollutant evolution under physical guidance. Specifically, two novel components are introduced: (1) a memory-augmented attention module that retrieves globally and locally historical features, which can adaptively capture delay effects modulated by multifactor data; and (2) a physics-guided delay evolving function, grounded in the diffusion-advection equation, that models diffusion, delayed advection, and source/sink terms, which can capture delay-aware pollutant accumulation patterns with physical plausibility. Extensive experiments on three real-world datasets demonstrate that AirDDE achieves the state-of-the-art forecasting performance with an average MAE reduction of 8.79\% over the best baselines. The code is available at https://github.com/w2obin/airdde-aaai.

Robotic ultrasound couples a high-rate contact-force loop with slower, delayed image feedback, so image-guided ultrasound probe rotation can perturb contact force before the resulting image response is observed. We derive a closed-form orientation-rate limit that bounds the modeled rotation-induced estimated-force excursion over a finite horizon while accounting for disturbance rejection by the fast force loop. The limit depends on local contact stiffness, force-loop gains, a conservative rotation-to-force gain bound, the excursion budget, and the prediction horizon. We implement this model in a dual-rate controller with timestamp-based delay reconstruction and joint-torque-based force estimation, and evaluate it on a curved gelatin phantom using paired controller comparisons and component ablations. Relative to unconstrained image guidance, the proposed rate-limited controller reduced first-second root-mean-square (RMS) estimated-force error by 0.40 N while increasing cue-convergence time by 0.94 s. A fixed rate cap near the analytically predicted ceiling produced no resolvable difference in force error and converged 0.32 s faster, indicating that the principal practical value of the model is the rate-design rule rather than online prediction. Delay reconstruction had no resolvable effect at the tested latency. A single-subject popliteal scan demonstrated feasibility, although the image cue was noise-limited on heterogeneous tissue.

The standard formulation of Markov decision processes (MDPs) assumes that the agent's decisions are executed immediately. However, in numerous realistic applications such as robotics or healthcare, actions are performed with a delay whose value can even be stochastic. In this work, we introduce stochastic delayed execution MDPs, a new formalism addressing random delays without resorting to state augmentation. We show that given observed delay values, it is sufficient to perform a policy search in the class of Markov policies in order to reach optimal performance, thus extending the deterministic fixed delay case. Armed with this insight, we devise DEZ, a model-based algorithm that optimizes over the class of Markov policies. DEZ leverages Monte-Carlo tree search similar to its non-delayed variant EfficientZero to accurately infer future states from the action queue. Thus, it handles delayed execution while preserving the sample efficiency of EfficientZero. Through a series of experiments on the Atari suite, we demonstrate that although the previous baseline outperforms the naive method in scenarios with constant delay, it underperforms in the face of stochastic delays. In contrast, our approach significantly outperforms the baselines, for both constant and stochastic delays. The code is available at http://github.com/davidva1/Delayed-EZ .

Deliberating takes time. In real-time settings, that time is not free. Standard reinforcement learning (RL) sidesteps this as the environment waits indefinitely for the agent's decision. Instead, we study real-time RL environments where the environment progresses while waiting for the agent's action. Building on prior real-time formalizations, we introduce variable-delay real-time RL, where the agent chooses how long to deliberate at each decision point since the environment progresses. For the planning agents we use, the right delay is state-dependent, and naively planning how long to plan can paralyze the agent. We instead approach this setting by training a lightweight gating policy on top of a planner to select state-dependent planning budgets. Across real-time Pac-Man, Tetris, Snake, Speed Hex, and Speed Go, our gating policy outperforms fixed-budget and heuristic baselines, and transfers to a real-time setup where the environment and agent run on two different GPUs.

We study the problem of estimating the time delay between two signals representing delayed, irregularly sampled and noisy versions of the same underlying pattern. We propose and demonstrate an evolutionary algorithm for the (hyper)parameter estimation of a kernel-based technique in the context of an astronomical problem, namely estimating the time delay between two gravitationally lensed signals from a distant quasar. Mixed types (integer and real) are used to represent variables within the evolutionary algorithm. We test the algorithm on several artificial data sets, and also on real astronomical observations of quasar Q0957+561. By carrying out a statistical analysis of the results we present a detailed comparison of our method with the most popular methods for time delay estimation in astrophysics. Our method yields more accurate and more stable time delay estimates: for Q0957+561, we obtain 419.6 days for the time delay between images A and B. Our methodology can be readily applied to current state-of-the-art optical monitoring data in astronomy, but can also be applied in other disciplines involving similar time series data.

We present new time delays, the main ingredient of time delay cosmography, for 22 lensed quasars resulting from high-cadence r-band monitoring on the 2.6 m ESO VLT Survey Telescope and Max-Planck-Gesellschaft 2.2 m telescope. Each lensed quasar was typically monitored for one to four seasons, often shared between the two telescopes to mitigate the interruptions forced by the COVID-19 pandemic. The sample of targets consists of 19 quadruply and 3 doubly imaged quasars, which received a total of 1 918 hours of on-sky time split into 21 581 wide-field frames, each 320 seconds long. In a given field, the 5-{\sigma} depth of the combined exposures typically reaches the 27th magnitude, while that of single visits is 24.5 mag - similar to the expected depth of the upcoming Vera-Rubin LSST. The fluxes of the different lensed images of the targets were reliably de-blended, providing not only light curves with photometric precision down to the photon noise limit, but also high-resolution models of the targets whose features and astrometry were systematically confirmed in Hubble Space Telescope imaging. This was made possible thanks to a new photometric pipeline, lightcurver, and the forward modelling method STARRED. Finally, the time delays between pairs of curves and their uncertainties were estimated, taking into account the degeneracy due to microlensing, and for the first time the full covariance matrices of the delay pairs are provided. Of note, this survey, with 13 square degrees, has applications beyond that of time delays, such as the study of the structure function of the multiple high-redshift quasars present in the footprint at a new high in terms of both depth and frequency. The reduced images will be available through the European Southern Observatory Science Portal.

We propose a delay-agnostic asynchronous coordinate update algorithm (DEGAS) for computing operator fixed points, with applications to asynchronous optimization. DEGAS includes novel asynchronous variants of ADMM and block-coordinate descent as special cases. We prove that DEGAS converges under both bounded and unbounded delays under delay-free parameter conditions. We also validate by theory and experiments that DEGAS adapts well to the actual delays. The effectiveness of DEGAS is demonstrated by numerical experiments on classification problems.

Delayed outcomes are ubiquitous in online experimentation: treatment can affect whether an outcome occurs, when it occurs, and its realized value. To accommodate staggered entry while remaining robust to environmental nonstationarity and unit-level heterogeneity, we adopt a design-based perspective and target the sample cumulative reward in each arm as a function of calendar time. Our confidence sequences allow practitioners to continuously monitor the counterfactual incremental reward, such as revenue, that would have been realized by calendar time t had all entered units been assigned to treatment rather than control. The main technical challenge is the choice of design-based filtration, complicated by the presence of asynchronous potential outcome times. We show that the IPW treatment-effect estimation error is not a martingale with respect to any filtration, while each arm-specific IPW estimation error is a martingale with respect to a carefully chosen arm-specific event-time filtration. We therefore construct a confidence sequence for the treatment effect by combining two arm-level confidence sequences with a union bound, and further demonstrate that this can outperform the traditional design-based variance upper bound. Finally, we characterize the class of augmentations for which the per-arm AIPW estimation error remains a martingale.