Daily Papers

Simulated environments enable scalable training data generation for embodied agents, but more data does not necessarily provide what a particular agent needs to learn. Existing environment-generation pipelines largely optimize generic properties such as realism, diversity, or task coverage, while different pretrained policies can fail for different environmental reasons. We therefore introduce WEDGE, a framework for weakness-guided navigation learning in which the failure modes of a pretrained agent guide the generation of training environments at each adaptation round. Given a pretrained policy, WEDGE uses an LLM to propose executable weakness features from contrasting successful and failed rollouts, automatically validates them on the diagnostic set, and selects the strongest validated weakness based on its success-rate gap. The validated weaknesses are then mapped to the environmental factors that control them. WEDGE varies these factors to construct environments in the difficulty regimes where the policy struggles, producing targeted training experience for adaptation. Across three navigation agents with different adaptation mechanisms, we find that policies exhibit distinct weakness profiles and benefit from different training environments. Weakness-conditioned adaptation consistently outperforms matched random and hard-example alternatives on ProcTHOR, while the resulting gains for Uni-NaVid and Gemini also extend to HM3D after ProcTHOR adaptation. Iterative re-diagnosis further shows that dominant weaknesses can persist or shift as the policy improves, providing updated guidance for subsequent environment construction. Together, these results show that policy failures are not only diagnostic signals, but actionable guidance for constructing training environments that target a policy's current weaknesses.

The target representation defines the distribution an image generator must learn, yet it is often treated as an interchangeable interface. This assumption is particularly questionable for continuous masked generators, which combine contextual inference from visible tokens with conditional modeling of each missing token. We study raw pixels, SD-VAE latents and DINOv2 as well as MAE representation-autoencoder features within a unified masked autoregressive rectified-flow model. Under a shared ImageNet training budget, these spaces exhibit distinct optimization and inference regimes. DINOv2 converges fastest in both iterations and computation but benefits strongly from a wider local denoiser and direct context fusion. Pixels optimize substantially more slowly and require a different prediction, masking, and guidance configuration. MAE reconstructs images more faithfully and exhibits clear semantic clustering, yet produces generations substantially worse than DINOv2. The representations also respond differently to classifier-free guidance and occupy distinct precision-recall trade-offs. Together, our results show that compression, reconstruction fidelity, token dimensionality, and visible semantic clustering do not individually predict generative behavior. Instead, target representations redistribute difficulty across contextual modeling, per-token denoising, and inference-time distributional control.

Current Reinforcement Fine-tuning (RFT) paradigms for Large Language Models (LLMs) suffer from sample inefficiency due to the redundant exposure of identical queries under uniform data sampling. While previous work has explored curriculum learning via heuristic difficulty metrics, these strategies exhibit limitations by neglecting the intrinsic learning signals generated by the model itself, thus leading to suboptimal training regimes. In this paper, we identify a model-inherent signal termed angle concentration that effectively reflects an LLM's capacity to learn from specific data. We theoretically and empirically demonstrate a correlation between the angular distribution of token hidden state vectors and the resulting gradient, revealing a learning preference for data exhibiting higher angle concentration. Inspired by this finding, we propose GAIN-RL, a Gradient-driven Angle-Informed Navigated RL framework. By leveraging the model's intrinsic angle concentration signal, GAIN-RL dynamically selects training data in each epoch, ensuring consistently impactful gradient updates and thus significantly enhancing overall training efficiency. Empirical evaluations show that GAIN-RL (GRPO) achieves over a 2.5x acceleration in training efficiency across diverse mathematical and coding tasks and varying model scales. Furthermore, GAIN-RL (GRPO)'s efficient sampling yields data-efficient training, achieving better performance with half the original data compared to vanilla GRPO with full training data. Code is realsed at https://github.com/wangqinsi1/GAINRL/tree/main.

Inference-Time Scaling (ITS) has largely succeeded in verifiable domains like math and coding, where cheap verification enables scalable output selection. However, extending ITS to tasks prone to systematic failure - driven by faulty initial assumptions or unmet multidimensional constraints - typically relies on costly external solvers or brittle, model-based verifiers. Our key insight is that the intrinsic statistics of parallel sample sets, specifically length-adjusted tail entropy, provide a robust discriminative signal for solution quality without access to ground truth. Crucially, these statistics serve as a difficulty gate for adaptive compute allocation, dynamically routing problems across scaling regimes. First, Intrinsic Selection (iS) ranks candidates post-hoc, matching consensus-based algorithms across three domains and improving engineering design selection by 20% over pass@1 baselines. Second, Intrinsic Particle Filtering (iPF) generalizes this to step-level resampling, guiding generation toward high-confidence reasoning trajectories to improve pass@1 by 6.1 points on average on hard math problems. Finally, Particle Distillation (dPF) injects privileged guidance via early logit blending and KL-guided resampling, steering generation past systematic reasoning errors to satisfy expert rubrics, yielding up to 26.5% gains on complex clinical responses. Our pipeline applies seamlessly across broad-purpose, domain-specialized, and multimodal architectures, successfully extending ITS to open-ended domains without requiring trained reward models or exact ground-truth verification.

Timestep sampling p(t) is a central design choice in Flow Matching models, yet common practice increasingly favors static middle-biased distributions (e.g., Logit-Normal). We show that this choice induces a speed--quality trade-off: middle-biased sampling accelerates early convergence but yields worse asymptotic fidelity than Uniform sampling. By analyzing per-timestep training losses, we identify a U-shaped difficulty profile with persistent errors near the boundary regimes, implying that under-sampling the endpoints leaves fine details unresolved. Guided by this insight, we propose Curriculum Sampling, a two-phase schedule that begins with middle-biased sampling for rapid structure learning and then switches to Uniform sampling for boundary refinement. On CIFAR-10, Curriculum Sampling improves the best FID from 3.85 (Uniform) to 3.22 while reaching peak performance at 100k rather than 150k training steps. Our results highlight that timestep sampling should be treated as an evolving curriculum rather than a fixed hyperparameter.

Recent Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models have made impressive progress toward general-purpose robotic manipulation by post-training large Vision-Language Models (VLMs) for action prediction. Yet most VLAs entangle perception and control in a monolithic pipeline optimized purely for action, which can erode language-conditioned grounding. In our real-world tabletop tests, policies over-grasp when the target is absent, are distracted by clutter, and overfit to background appearance. To address these issues, we propose OBEYED-VLA (OBject-centric and gEometrY groundED VLA), a framework that explicitly disentangles perceptual grounding from action reasoning. Instead of operating directly on raw RGB, OBEYED-VLA augments VLAs with a perception module that grounds multi-view inputs into task-conditioned, object-centric, and geometry-aware observations. This module includes a VLM-based object-centric grounding stage that selects task-relevant object regions across camera views, along with a complementary geometric grounding stage that emphasizes the 3D structure of these objects over their appearance. The resulting grounded views are then fed to a pretrained VLA policy, which we fine-tune exclusively on single-object demonstrations collected without environmental clutter or non-target objects. On a real-world UR10e tabletop setup, OBEYED-VLA substantially improves robustness over strong VLA baselines across four challenging regimes and multiple difficulty levels: distractor objects, absent-target rejection, background appearance changes, and cluttered manipulation of unseen objects. Ablation studies confirm that both semantic grounding and geometry-aware grounding are critical to these gains. Overall, the results indicate that making perception an explicit, object-centric component is an effective way to strengthen and generalize VLA-based robotic manipulation.

Time series forecasting is critical across finance, healthcare, and cloud computing, yet progress is constrained by a fundamental bottleneck: the scarcity of large-scale, high-quality benchmarks. To address this gap, we introduce QuitoBench, a regime-balanced benchmark for time series forecasting with coverage across eight trendtimesseasonalitytimesforecastability (TSF) regimes, designed to capture forecasting-relevant properties rather than application-defined domain labels. The benchmark is built upon Quito, a billion-scale time series corpus of application traffic from Alipay spanning nine business domains. Benchmarking 10 models from deep learning, foundation models, and statistical baselines across 232,200 evaluation instances, we report four key findings: (i) a context-length crossover where deep learning models lead at short context (L=96) but foundation models dominate at long context (L ge 576); (ii) forecastability is the dominant difficulty driver, producing a 3.64 times MAE gap across regimes; (iii) deep learning models match or surpass foundation models at 59 times fewer parameters; and (iv) scaling the amount of training data provides substantially greater benefit than scaling model size for both model families. These findings are validated by strong cross-benchmark and cross-metric consistency. Our open-source release enables reproducible, regime-aware evaluation for time series forecasting research.

We introduce TopoPrimer, a framework that makes the global topological structure of the series population an explicit input to any forecasting model. TopoPrimer improves accuracy across diverse domains, stabilizes forecasts under seasonal demand spikes, and closes the cold-start gap. Precomputed once per domain via persistent homology and spectral sheaf coordinates, TopoPrimer deploys per token for fully-trained models and as a lightweight adapter for pre-trained backbones. Of these two components, sheaf coordinates are the primary accuracy driver. Across four public benchmarks on Chronos and TimesFM, TopoPrimer consistently improves forecasting accuracy, with gains of up to 7.3% MSE on ECL. The topology advantage persists with near-identical magnitude across zero-shot and fine-tuned backbones, suggesting topology and per-series training capture complementary signals. The gains are most pronounced in difficult regimes. Under peak seasonal demand, classical and zero-shot models degrade by up to 50%, while TopoPrimer stays within 10%. At cold start with no item history, TopoPrimer reduces MAE by 27% over a topology-free baseline.

A prevailing view holds that supervised fine-tuning (SFT) memorizes training data and fails to generalize, whereas reinforcement learning (RL) attains broader robustness. We revisit this claim through a systematic evaluation on two decision-making benchmarks, Sokoban and General Points, and arrive at a different conclusion. We show that much of SFT's perceived failure stems from frozen-prompt artifacts: when trained on fixed instruction templates, SFT models cling to training semantics rather than adapting to new ones. Introducing prompt diversity during training breaks this shortcut and yields strong generalization to unseen instruction variants without harming in-distribution performance. Beyond instruction shifts, we ask whether SFT can generalize to strictly harder tasks. Here, chain-of-thought (CoT) supervision provides an algorithmic scaffold that markedly improves transfer to more difficult regimes, such as larger Sokoban grids with additional boxes and arithmetic with out-of-distribution values or five-card compositions that increase combinatorial complexity. Finally, combining prompt diversity with CoT achieves the best of both worlds: robust generalization across both instruction-variant and difficulty-variant settings, matching or surpassing RL baselines on our benchmarks while retaining SFT's simplicity and stability. These findings challenge the narrative that SFT is inherently inferior to RL and support a data-centric perspective: with appropriately curated demonstrations, vanilla SFT can generalize as strongly as RL. Code reproducing the results in the paper can be found at: https://github.com/XiaofengLin7/debunking-sft-generalization.

Catastrophic overfitting (CO) in single-step adversarial training (AT) results in abrupt drops in the adversarial test accuracy (even down to 0%). For models trained with multi-step AT, it has been observed that the loss function behaves locally linearly with respect to the input, this is however lost in single-step AT. To address CO in single-step AT, several methods have been proposed to enforce local linearity of the loss via regularization. However, these regularization terms considerably slow down training due to Double Backpropagation. Instead, in this work, we introduce a regularization term, called ELLE, to mitigate CO effectively and efficiently in classical AT evaluations, as well as some more difficult regimes, e.g., large adversarial perturbations and long training schedules. Our regularization term can be theoretically linked to curvature of the loss function and is computationally cheaper than previous methods by avoiding Double Backpropagation. Our thorough experimental validation demonstrates that our work does not suffer from CO, even in challenging settings where previous works suffer from it. We also notice that adapting our regularization parameter during training (ELLE-A) greatly improves the performance, specially in large epsilon setups. Our implementation is available in https://github.com/LIONS-EPFL/ELLE .

As AI systems move from generating text to accomplishing goals through sustained interaction, the ability to model environment dynamics becomes a central bottleneck. Agents that manipulate objects, navigate software, coordinate with others, or design experiments require predictive environment models, yet the term world model carries different meanings across research communities. We introduce a "levels x laws" taxonomy organized along two axes. The first defines three capability levels: L1 Predictor, which learns one-step local transition operators; L2 Simulator, which composes them into multi-step, action-conditioned rollouts that respect domain laws; and L3 Evolver, which autonomously revises its own model when predictions fail against new evidence. The second identifies four governing-law regimes: physical, digital, social, and scientific. These regimes determine what constraints a world model must satisfy and where it is most likely to fail. Using this framework, we synthesize over 400 works and summarize more than 100 representative systems spanning model-based reinforcement learning, video generation, web and GUI agents, multi-agent social simulation, and AI-driven scientific discovery. We analyze methods, failure modes, and evaluation practices across level-regime pairs, propose decision-centric evaluation principles and a minimal reproducible evaluation package, and outline architectural guidance, open problems, and governance challenges. The resulting roadmap connects previously isolated communities and charts a path from passive next-step prediction toward world models that can simulate, and ultimately reshape, the environments in which agents operate.

Sampling based consistency is widely used for hallucination detection, yet aggregate performance can conceal systematic differences in which errors are detectable. This work studies that heterogeneity across four language models and three factual question answering datasets. Partitioning hallucinations by answer agreement reveals high agreement (Ghost) and low agreement (Flickering) regimes with an apparent detectability gap of 0.35 to 0.46 AUC. Because the statistics used to define the regimes and measure this gap are strongly coupled (|ρ|approx0.94 to 1.00), the raw result is treated as a property of agreement based detection rather than independent evidence. After freezing regime assignments, lexical and semantic response dispersion preserve the asymmetry, with bootstrap 95% intervals excluding zero in all 12 model and dataset settings. A stricter test using individual diffusion trajectories and no cross seed information preserves the asymmetry across all three LLaDA datasets (p<0.005) and directionally across all three Dream datasets, with one reaching significance. The hard regime varies substantially in prevalence across models (16% to 77%), and matched prompts frequently change regimes between models. These findings show that aggregate detection metrics conceal persistent, model dependent heterogeneity in language model failures and motivate regime conditioned evaluation.

As browser-use agents improve, benchmarks keep pace by collecting new tasks, websites, and applications, often making tasks longer or more novel. This makes difficulty expensive to refresh and difficult to control: when many aspects change at once, it is unclear what actually makes a task challenging. We instead construct challenging instances from tasks agents already solve, turning difficulty into a programmable property of the environment. BreakingWeb pairs every base task with an intervention condition that preserves the user instruction, latent target, and backend success criterion while changing the environment at different web stack layers. Each intervention is deterministic, detectable, and recoverable, and is annotated with the cognitive primitive it primarily loads. The benchmark contains 519 clean/intervention task pairs across seven self-hosted websites and 29 intervention families, all graded against outcomes. We evaluate six strong browser-use agents, three GUI-only agents that see only screenshots, and humans. The construction is effective: interventions cut agent pass rate by 22.9% on average and overturn nearly half of the tasks each agent solves cleanly, whereas humans lose 10.0% on a first attempt and 5.7% after one familiarisation attempt. The dominant failure is belief failure: 75% of the six agents' failures end with a declared success although the required change never happened. Our code, data and environment are publicly available at www.breakingweb.app.

Dynamic treatment regimes (DTRs) are personalized, adaptive, multi-stage treatment plans that adapt treatment decisions both to an individual's initial features and to intermediate outcomes and features at each subsequent stage, which are affected by decisions in prior stages. Examples include personalized first- and second-line treatments of chronic conditions like diabetes, cancer, and depression, which adapt to patient response to first-line treatment, disease progression, and individual characteristics. While existing literature mostly focuses on estimating the optimal DTR from offline data such as from sequentially randomized trials, we study the problem of developing the optimal DTR in an online manner, where the interaction with each individual affect both our cumulative reward and our data collection for future learning. We term this the DTR bandit problem. We propose a novel algorithm that, by carefully balancing exploration and exploitation, is guaranteed to achieve rate-optimal regret when the transition and reward models are linear. We demonstrate our algorithm and its benefits both in synthetic experiments and in a case study of adaptive treatment of major depressive disorder using real-world data.

Language model-generated rubrics are increasingly used as reward signals for rubric-based reinforcement learning, LLM-as-a-judge evaluation, and automated grading. Such rubrics are reliable only if they reward honest answers over adversarial answers optimized to exploit them. Yet their robustness to such optimization remains poorly understood. We isolate the hardest regime: impossible tasks, where the prompt pressures the model toward an unsupported conclusion, so the only honest response is to acknowledge the impossibility. We introduce ImpossibleRubrics, a benchmark of 169 impossible tasks spanning six impossibility categories, each paired with a verifiable oracle certificate specifying what an honest answer may and may not claim, together with 48 answerable controls. Rather than providing fixed rubrics, ImpossibleRubrics provides task environments and certificates, allowing rubrics to be generated downstream and then adversarially tested for whether they reward certificate-violating answers. Eleven generators are exploited 8--26% of the time on the unbiased 150-of-169 environment cut; on a deliberately selected stress cut the strongest generator we measured is still exploited 36% while a certificate-faithful rubric is exploited 0%, so what we measure is a rubric-quality gap, not task impossibility. One result runs against intuition. A single generic rubric ("be decisive, penalize hedging") used unchanged for every task is exploited 64% of the time, and seven of the eleven generators are exploited more often than that while writing a rubric tailored to each one. The tailored criteria appear to tell an attacker which claim to fabricate. The problem is not that rubrics are vague; it is that they are specific about the wrong things.

The same arguments often need to be evaluated under different external regimes. An agent with influence over the regime has a strategic lever that standard formalisms do not directly capture. We introduce context-dependent argumentation frameworks (CDAFs), an extension of Dung's theory in which a defeat function determines, per context, which attacks succeed. A perspective-labeled specialisation derives the defeat function from a relevance set ρ and a priority π. The relevance set is the agent's action space. In a small worked example, the agent's target argument is rejected under every full-relevance injective priority, yet accepted under partial activations, one of which no VAF audience can mirror. We define the corresponding decision problem, ACTIVATION-MANIPULATION, and record baseline complexity bounds. Tight bounds and multi-agent variants are left open.

Inference-time multi-agent LLM scaling lacks a shared unit: counting nominal agents conflates cost with independent evidence. We derive a two-parameter scaling law R(N) = N_eff/N = 1/(1+c(N-1)N^{-β}) where the regime exponent β classifies any configuration into one of three asymptotic regimes -- hard-ceiling at 1/c (β= 0), sublinear at N^β/c (0 < β< 1), or linear (βge 1), and a mean-field theorem predicts that peer count k and rounds τ during agent debate enter the dynamics only through their product kτ. The law applies at two levels: answer diversity and correctness redundancy. Across 44 (model times task times condition) cells spanning peer debate, self-correction, random-noise placebo, self-consistency, three open-weight families (Qwen, Llama, Ministral) at scales from 7B to 32B with a frontier API check (Gemini), thinking models, heterogeneous teams, and sparse communication, the functional form fits every condition at R^2 > 0.99; only (c, β) shifts. On free-form math, dense peer influence collapses the answer-level regime from sublinear into hard-ceiling; correctness-level fits remain hard-ceiling throughout. Three findings have practical implications. (i)~Thirty dense debating agents produce no more answer diversity than one on MMLU-Hard. (ii)~A noise placebo tracks self-correction on free-form math and at 4times scale, so within homogeneous teams the gain commonly attributed to ``debate'' comes from re-evaluation, not peer content. (iii)~A single N le 5 pilot predicts the N=30 structural ceiling, and within the configurations tested only architectural diversity (heterogeneous teams) lowers c and escapes the hard-ceiling regime, communication-mode interventions do not.

Estimating the difficulty of a dataset typically involves comparing state-of-the-art models to humans; the bigger the performance gap, the harder the dataset is said to be. However, this comparison provides little understanding of how difficult each instance in a given distribution is, or what attributes make the dataset difficult for a given model. To address these questions, we frame dataset difficulty -- w.r.t. a model V -- as the lack of V-usable information (Xu et al., 2019), where a lower value indicates a more difficult dataset for V. We further introduce pointwise \mathcal{V-information} (PVI) for measuring the difficulty of individual instances w.r.t. a given distribution. While standard evaluation metrics typically only compare different models for the same dataset, V-usable information and PVI also permit the converse: for a given model V, we can compare different datasets, as well as different instances/slices of the same dataset. Furthermore, our framework allows for the interpretability of different input attributes via transformations of the input, which we use to discover annotation artefacts in widely-used NLP benchmarks.

Recent works train agents by constructing large-scale multimodal environment pools. However, we find that simply increasing the number of multimodal environments does not always benefit. We further analyze the limitations in current multimodal environment distributions through a series of experiments. Based on these findings, we study how to build more effective training environment distributions from two dimensions: **diversity** and **difficulty structure**. For diversity, we propose **Ability-aware Environment Selection (AES)** to obtain diverse environment sets. For difficulty structure, we propose **Hierarchical Difficulty Curriculum (HDC)**, which organizes curriculum learning through two difficulty levels: harness weakening and state-scale progression. Experiments show that AES and HDC effectively improve multimodal agent training.

In theoretical neuroscience, recent work leverages deep learning tools to explore how some network attributes critically influence its learning dynamics. Notably, initial weight distributions with small (resp. large) variance may yield a rich (resp. lazy) regime, where significant (resp. minor) changes to network states and representation are observed over the course of learning. However, in biology, neural circuit connectivity could exhibit a low-rank structure and therefore differs markedly from the random initializations generally used for these studies. As such, here we investigate how the structure of the initial weights -- in particular their effective rank -- influences the network learning regime. Through both empirical and theoretical analyses, we discover that high-rank initializations typically yield smaller network changes indicative of lazier learning, a finding we also confirm with experimentally-driven initial connectivity in recurrent neural networks. Conversely, low-rank initialization biases learning towards richer learning. Importantly, however, as an exception to this rule, we find lazier learning can still occur with a low-rank initialization that aligns with task and data statistics. Our research highlights the pivotal role of initial weight structures in shaping learning regimes, with implications for metabolic costs of plasticity and risks of catastrophic forgetting.

Scaling laws predict loss from compute but not how capabilities interact. We measure the coupling between reasoning and truthfulness across 63 base models from 16 families and find a regime change invisible to loss curves: below a family-dependent critical scale N_c, capabilities anticorrelate; above it, they cooperate. N_c approx 3.5B parameters [2.9B, 13.4B] (bootstrap 95% CI), but model size is not the only variable that determines phase. Architecture, data curation, and training recipe each shift N_c independently: curated training eliminated the coupling dip between Qwen generations (0.025 to 0.830 at matched scale), Gemma-4 at 4B achieves coupling 0.871, characteristic of 13B+ standard-trained models, through distillation and architectural innovation, and Phi at 1B matches web-trained coupling at 10B through data curation alone. Width normalization eliminates the anticorrelation across all tested families, supporting an output-projection bottleneck. Internally, 38 of 40 models show zero competing attention heads. A sparse-regression ODE cross-predicts held-out Llama-2 at 5.6% error. The diagnostic requires no model internals -- only public benchmark scores across a model family. The cooperative regime extends to the frontier (r = +0.72, 34 models, 10 labs). Code, data, and an open-source activation-steering tool for any open-weight model are released alongside an interactive dashboard that diagnoses any model's coupling phase, suggests concrete interventions (data curation, width, benchmark rotation), and provides ODE scaling predictions, frontier diagnostics, and eigenstructure analysis: https://zehenlabs.com/cape/.

The rapid proliferation of Large Language Models (LLMs) and diverse specialized benchmarks necessitates a shift from fragmented, task-specific metrics to a holistic, competitive ranking system that effectively aggregates performance across multiple ability dimensions. Primarily using static scoring, current evaluation methods are fundamentally limited. They struggle to determine the proper mix ratio across diverse benchmarks, and critically, they fail to capture a model's dynamic competitive fitness or its vulnerability when confronted with sequential, high-stakes tasks. To address this, we introduce the novel Competitive Swiss-System Dynamics (CSD) framework. CSD simulates a multi-round, sequential contest where models are dynamically paired across a curated sequence of benchmarks based on their accumulated win-loss record. And Monte Carlo Simulation (N=100,000 iterations) is used to approximate the statistically robust Expected Win Score (E[S_m]), which eliminates the noise of random pairing and early-round luck. Furthermore, we implement a Failure Sensitivity Analysis by parameterizing the per-round elimination quantity (T_k), which allows us to profile models based on their risk appetite--distinguishing between robust generalists and aggressive specialists. We demonstrate that CSD provides a more nuanced and context-aware ranking than traditional aggregate scoring and static pairwise models, representing a vital step towards risk-informed, next-generation LLM evaluation.

When agents are acting together, they may need a simple mechanism to decide on joint actions. One possibility is to have the agents express their preferences in the form of a ballot and use a voting rule to decide the winning action(s). Unfortunately, agents may try to manipulate such an election by misreporting their preferences. Fortunately, it has been shown that it is NP-hard to compute how to manipulate a number of different voting rules. However, NP-hardness only bounds the worst-case complexity. Recent theoretical results suggest that manipulation may often be easy in practice. To address this issue, I suggest studying empirically if computational complexity is in practice a barrier to manipulation. The basic tool used in my investigations is the identification of computational "phase transitions". Such an approach has been fruitful in identifying hard instances of propositional satisfiability and other NP-hard problems. I show that phase transition behaviour gives insight into the hardness of manipulating voting rules, increasing concern that computational complexity is indeed any sort of barrier. Finally, I look at the problem of computing manipulation of other, related problems like stable marriage and tournament problems.

How to design reinforcement learning (RL) tasks that effectively unleash the reasoning capability of large language models (LLMs) remains an open question. Existing RL tasks (e.g., math, programming, and constructing reasoning tasks) suffer from three key limitations: (1) Scalability. They rely heavily on human annotation or expensive LLM synthesis to generate sufficient training data. (2) Verifiability. LLMs' outputs are hard to verify automatically and reliably. (3) Controllable Difficulty. Most tasks lack fine-grained difficulty control, making it hard to train LLMs to develop reasoning ability from easy to hard. To address these limitations, we propose Saturn, a SAT-based RL framework that uses Boolean Satisfiability (SAT) problems to train and evaluate LLM reasoning. Saturn enables scalable task construction, rule-based verification, and precise difficulty control. Saturn designs a curriculum learning pipeline that continuously improves LLMs' reasoning capability by constructing SAT tasks of increasing difficulty and training LLMs from easy to hard. To ensure stable training, we design a principled mechanism to control difficulty transitions. We introduce Saturn-2.6k, a dataset of 2,660 SAT problems with varying difficulty. It supports the evaluation of how LLM reasoning changes with problem difficulty. We apply Saturn to DeepSeek-R1-Distill-Qwen and obtain Saturn-1.5B and Saturn-7B. We achieve several notable results: (1) On SAT problems, Saturn-1.5B and Saturn-7B achieve average pass@3 improvements of +14.0 and +28.1, respectively. (2) On math and programming tasks, Saturn-1.5B and Saturn-7B improve average scores by +4.9 and +1.8 on benchmarks (e.g., AIME, LiveCodeBench). (3) Compared to the state-of-the-art (SOTA) approach in constructing RL tasks, Saturn achieves further improvements of +8.8%. We release the source code, data, and models to support future research.

A working citation looks like proof -- but the fact that a link resolves does not mean the cited paper supports the claim. I find that current agentic models rarely fabricate citations (over 99% resolve), yet roughly 15.9% link to the wrong paper. Existing benchmarks miss this failure mode: when a question has a fixed answer key, a model can reproduce the expected source from that key rather than independently verifying that the source supports the claim. I introduce \openbiorq{}, a retrieval-grounded agentic benchmark of 12{,}553 unsolved biomedical research questions across 12 domains that treats open questions as a faithfulness-and-abstention probe. To my knowledge, this is the first biomedical benchmark to combine an agentic setting -- where the model must issue multiple tool calls -- with unsolved questions that have no answer key. Openness is verified against real follow-up evidence rather than a model's parametric knowledge. Difficulty is empirical: I anchor it on questions that three open-weight reference models fail to answer, rather than on subjective hardness labels. On this hardest subset, held-out models from the same lineage as the difficulty anchors solve only ~17%, while three independent frontier agents (Gemini-3-Pro, Opus-4.7, GPT-5.5) span a wide 29-60% range. The benchmark is thus hard, non-saturating (the best agent still leaves ~33-40\% unsolved), and discriminating across capability tiers. Beyond difficulty, I observe agentic collapse on the hardest questions, where agents stop using their tools. For the most collapse-prone model, blocking tool access entirely barely changes its score -- so tools stop paying off exactly where they are needed most. A frozen per-question checklist raises inter-judge agreement from Spearman 0.35 to 0.82.

Language-model agents are increasingly deployed under standing instructions: a system prompt, a policy file, or a skills document is placed in context, and the agent is trusted to let that document govern every action that follows. Existing benchmarks rarely test this deployment pattern directly; they measure whether an agent can complete a task, not whether a long, binding policy document constrains its behavior over an extended tool-use horizon. We present HANDBOOK_md, a benchmark of 65 agentic tasks modeled on how employees follow company handbooks. Each task places an agent in a self-contained company environment (a file workspace with mock email, chat, calendar, issue-tracking, and commerce services exposed over the Model Context Protocol) and instructs it to carry out routine professional work governed by an expert-written standard operating procedure of 20-124 pages. Tasks span five domains (finance, medical billing, insurance, logistics, and HR) and 10 fictional companies. To resist memorization, every task modifies one of 10 base handbooks, altering the specific rules and thresholds on which grading depends, so no two tasks share the same set of policies. Grading is fully deterministic: each task carries a rubric of programmatic criteria (824 in total) that check both that required actions occurred and that prohibited actions did not. Under strict grading, where a trial passes only if every criterion is satisfied, the strongest evaluated model passes 36.2% of trials, and most frontier models remain below 25%. Failures follow consistent patterns: agents let a plausible but unauthorized in-environment request override the standing policy, perform a required check and then act against its result, lose rule details over long horizons, and report compliance they did not achieve. We release the tasks, environments, and evaluation harness.

We investigate how well large language models (LLMs) generalize across different task difficulties, a key question for effective data curation and evaluation. Existing research is mixed regarding whether training on easier or harder data leads to better results, and whether those gains come on easier or harder test data. We address this question by conducting a systematic evaluation of LLMs' generalization across models, datasets, and fine-grained groups of example difficulty. We rank examples in six datasets using the outputs of thousands of different LLMs and Item Response Theory (IRT), a well-established difficulty metric in educational testing. Unlike prior work, our difficulty ratings are therefore determined solely by the abilities of many different LLMs, excluding human opinions of difficulty. With a more objective, larger-scale, and finer-grained analysis, we show that cross-difficulty generalization is often limited; training on either easy or hard data cannot achieve consistent improvements across the full range of difficulties. These results show the importance of having a range of difficulties in both training and evaluation data for LLMs, and that taking shortcuts with respect to difficulty is risky.

Refusal rates are a poor proxy for LLM safety, i.e., a model may over-refuse benign prompts while still complying with harmful ones. We audit both failure modes across 21 open-weight LLMs on four safety benchmarks (OR-Bench, XSTest, ToxiGen, BOLD), using a composition adjustment to isolate model sensitivity from dataset toxicity confounds. We report three findings. First, models adopt fundamentally different calibration strategies: conservative ecosystems such as Llama suppress unsafe outputs at the cost of elevated over-refusals, while permissive ecosystems such as DeepSeek and Qwen preserve helpfulness but tolerate higher harmful compliance. Second, demographic protection is unequal: models over-protect prominent racial and religious groups, frequently refusing even benign prompts about them, while providing substantially weaker protection against disability-targeted attacks. Third, refusal and compliance tendencies are stable within model families across generations and scales, suggesting that post-training objectives shape safety behavior more than architecture. Our results call for joint, demographically-aware, and multi-judge safety evaluation.

Ensuring the safety of LLM-generated content is essential for real-world deployment. Most existing guardrail models formulate moderation as a fixed binary classification task, implicitly assuming a fixed definition of harmfulness. In practice, enforcement strictness - how conservatively harmfulness is defined and enforced - varies across platforms and evolves over time, making binary moderators brittle under shifting requirements. We first introduce FlexBench, a strictness-adaptive LLM moderation benchmark that enables controlled evaluation under multiple strictness regimes. Experiments on FlexBench reveal substantial cross-strictness inconsistency in existing moderators: models that perform well under one regime can degrade substantially under others, limiting their practical usability. To address this, we propose FlexGuard, an LLM-based moderator that outputs a calibrated continuous risk score reflecting risk severity and supports strictness-specific decisions via thresholding. We train FlexGuard via risk-alignment optimization to improve score-severity consistency and provide practical threshold selection strategies to adapt to target strictness at deployment. Experiments on FlexBench and public benchmarks demonstrate that FlexGuard achieves higher moderation accuracy and substantially improved robustness under varying strictness. We release the source code and data to support reproducibility.

Collecting high-quality training examples for language model fine-tuning is expensive, with practical budgets limiting the amount of data that can be procured. We investigate whether example difficulty affects GRPO training effectiveness by comparing selection strategies (easy, medium, hard, random) across multiple models and reasoning tasks. Training on the hardest 10\% of examples (those where the base model fails most often) yields dramatic performance gains up to 47\%, while easy examples produce minimal improvements of 3-15\%. This occurs because GRPO requires outcome variance to generate learning signals; hard examples maintain mixed success/failure outcomes throughout training while easy examples quickly converge to consistent success, eliminating learning opportunities. Moreover, models trained on hard examples show superior out-of-distribution generalization, with only hard-trained models achieving meaningful gains on the AIME2025 benchmark. Our findings provide clear guidance: when budget-constrained, prioritize collecting and annotating examples where your base model struggles, as these drive nearly all learning value in GRPO fine-tuning

In experiments spanning more than 100,000 trials across thirteen large language models, we show that several state-of-the-art models presented with a simple task (including Grok 4, GPT-5, and Gemini 2.5 Pro) sometimes actively subvert a shutdown mechanism in their environment to complete that task. Models differed substantially in their tendency to resist the shutdown mechanism, and their behavior was sensitive to variations in the prompt including the strength and clarity of the instruction to allow shutdown and whether the instruction was in the system prompt or the user prompt (surprisingly, models were consistently less likely to obey the instruction when it was placed in the system prompt). Even with an explicit instruction not to interfere with the shutdown mechanism, some models did so up to 97% (95% CI: 96-98%) of the time.

Policy-based reinforcement learning currently plays an important role in improving LLMs on mathematical reasoning tasks. However, existing rollout-based reinforcement learning methods (GRPO, DAPO, GSPO, etc.) fail to explicitly consider LLMs' learning ability for samples of different difficulty levels, which is contrary to the human cognitive process of mathematical reasoning tasks from easy to difficult. Intuitively, we find that the variance of the rollout group's reward in RLVR partly reflects the difficulty of the current sample for LLMs. Samples that are too easy or too difficult have a lower variance, while samples with moderate difficulty have a higher variance. Based on this, we propose VCRL, a curriculum reinforcement learning framework that dynamically controls the difficulty of training samples based on the variance of group rewards. Experiments on five mathematical benchmarks and two models reveal the advantages of VCRL over the current LLM RL baselines.

While reinforcement learning algorithms can learn effective policies for complex tasks, these policies are often brittle to even minor task variations, especially when variations are not explicitly provided during training. One natural approach to this problem is to train agents with manually specified variation in the training task or environment. However, this may be infeasible in practical situations, either because making perturbations is not possible, or because it is unclear how to choose suitable perturbation strategies without sacrificing performance. The key insight of this work is that learning diverse behaviors for accomplishing a task can directly lead to behavior that generalizes to varying environments, without needing to perform explicit perturbations during training. By identifying multiple solutions for the task in a single environment during training, our approach can generalize to new situations by abandoning solutions that are no longer effective and adopting those that are. We theoretically characterize a robustness set of environments that arises from our algorithm and empirically find that our diversity-driven approach can extrapolate to various changes in the environment and task.

Coding agents increasingly run inside organizations whose security controls (scoped credentials, restricted egress, read-only filesystems, non-root execution) constrain them like any other software. Existing benchmarks, however, evaluate agents almost exclusively in permissive sandboxes, so it is unknown how performance changes when policy is enforced. In this work, we evaluate 12 coding agents on Terminal-Bench 2.1 across nested security policy levels derived from common real-world enterprise restrictions. Hardening is never free but far from uniform: under the strictest policy, success losses reach 18.3 points and cost inflation 167.3\%, and the two axes disagree; the model that best preserves success is also the one that loses the most efficiency, so model choice is policy-dependent. Beyond aggregate scores, we characterize how agents behave when policy blocks their actions and decompose the failures hardening induces: runs grind into timeouts or wrong solutions rather than stopping early, in a mix that differs by model. To ground comparisons, we verify task solvability under the strictest policy, separating model failures from tasks the policy forecloses. We release Boundary-Bench, an open-source hardening plugin enabling policy-constrained evaluation of coding agents on Terminal-Bench and compatible benchmarks.

The realization that complex systems such as ecological communities can collapse or shift regimes suddenly and without rapid external forcing poses a serious challenge to our understanding and management of the natural world. The potential to identify early warning signals that would allow researchers and managers to predict such events before they happen has therefore been an invaluable discovery that offers a way forward in spite of such seemingly unpredictable behavior. Research into early warning signals has demonstrated that it is possible to define and detect such early warning signals in advance of a transition in certain contexts. Here we describe the pattern emerging as research continues to explore just how far we can generalize these results. A core of examples emerges that shares three properties: the phenomenon of rapid regime shifts, a pattern of 'critical slowing down' that can be used to detect the approaching shift, and a mechanism of bifurcation driving the sudden change. As research has expanded beyond these core examples, it is becoming clear that not all systems that show regime shifts exhibit critical slowing down, or vice versa. Even when systems exhibit critical slowing down, statistical detection is a challenge. We review the literature that explores these edge cases and highlight the need for (a) new early warning behaviors that can be used in cases where rapid shifts do not exhibit critical slowing down, (b) the development of methods to identify which behavior might be an appropriate signal when encountering a novel system; bearing in mind that a positive indication for some systems is a negative indication in others, and (c) statistical methods that can distinguish between signatures of early warning behaviors and noise.

Whether large language models can be prompted to generate rhetorical fallacies on demand, and whether current safety post-training constrains this behavior, has received less attention than the related question of detecting fallacies in existing text. We close this gap with DeflectBench, evaluating 23,990 generations from four frontier models across three deflection strategies (whataboutism, ad hominem, red herring), seven prompt framings, and 80 claims spanning four controversy levels. Refusal is governed primarily by request structure rather than claim content. Per claim refusal varies by only 11 percentage points across the 80 claims, while a single prompt frame change can swing within model refusal by nearly 100 percentage points and switching the requested fallacy type can swing it by over 80 percentage points within explicit framings. An educational debate coach prompt framing collapses refusal to near zero across all four model families, but the bypassed behavior is not clean compliance. Models typically produce labeled compliance, naming the requested manipulation in the same response that contains it. The four models distribute differently across refusal, labeled compliance, soft refusal, and clean compliance. The code and dataset are released at https://github.com/ArtKanke/DeflectBench.

Despite impressive progress in areas like mathematical reasoning, large language models still face significant challenges in consistently solving complex problems. Drawing inspiration from key human learning strategies, we propose two novel strategies to enhance the capability of large language models to solve these complex problems. First, Adaptive Difficulty Curriculum Learning (ADCL) is a novel curriculum learning strategy that tackles the Difficulty Shift phenomenon (i.e., a model's perception of problem difficulty dynamically changes during training) by periodically re-estimating difficulty within upcoming data batches to maintain alignment with the model's evolving capabilities. Second, Expert-Guided Self-Reformulation (EGSR) is a novel reinforcement learning strategy that bridges the gap between imitation learning and pure exploration by guiding models to reformulate expert solutions within their own conceptual framework, rather than relying on direct imitation, fostering deeper understanding and knowledge assimilation. Extensive experiments on challenging mathematical reasoning benchmarks, using Qwen2.5-7B as the base model, demonstrate that these human-inspired strategies synergistically and significantly enhance performance. Notably, their combined application improves performance over the standard Zero-RL baseline by 10% on the AIME24 benchmark and 16.6% on AIME25.

Large Language Models (LLMs) can produce surprisingly sophisticated estimates of their own uncertainty. However, it remains unclear to what extent this expressed confidence is tied to the reasoning, knowledge, or decision making of the model. To test this, we introduce RiskEval: a framework designed to evaluate whether models adjust their abstention policies in response to varying error penalties. Our evaluation of several frontier models reveals a critical dissociation: models are neither cost-aware when articulating their verbal confidence, nor strategically responsive when deciding whether to engage or abstain under high-penalty conditions. Even when extreme penalties render frequent abstention the mathematically optimal strategy, models almost never abstain, resulting in utility collapse. This indicates that calibrated verbal confidence scores may not be sufficient to create trustworthy and interpretable AI systems, as current models lack the strategic agency to convert uncertainty signals into optimal and risk-sensitive decisions.

Estimating the difficulty of multiple-choice questions would be great help for educators who must spend substantial time creating and piloting stimuli for their tests, and for learners who want to practice. Supervised approaches to difficulty estimation have yielded to date mixed results. In this contribution we leverage an aspect of generative large models which might be seen as a weakness when answering questions, namely their uncertainty, and exploit it towards exploring correlations between two different metrics of uncertainty, and the actual student response distribution. While we observe some present but weak correlations, we also discover that the models' behaviour is different in the case of correct vs wrong answers, and that correlations differ substantially according to the different question types which are included in our fine-grained, previously unused dataset of 451 questions from a Biopsychology course. In discussing our findings, we also suggest potential avenues to further leverage model uncertainty as an additional proxy for item difficulty.

We consider a biological population whose environment varies periodically in time, exhibiting two very different "seasons" : one is favorable and the other one is unfavorable. For monotone differential models with concave nonlinearities, we address the following question: the system's period being fixed, under what conditions does there exist a critical duration for the unfavorable season? By "critical duration" we mean that above some threshold, the population cannot sustain and extincts, while below this threshold, the system converges to a unique periodic and positive solution. We term this a "sharp seasonal threshold property" (SSTP, for short). Building upon a previous result, we obtain sufficient conditions for SSTP in any dimension and apply our criterion to a two-dimensional model featuring juvenile and adult populations of insects.

LLM agents with tool access can discover and exploit security vulnerabilities. This is known. What is not known is which features of a system prompt trigger this behaviour, and which do not. We present a systematic taxonomy based on approximately 10,000 trials across seven models, 37 prompt conditions, and 12 hypothesized attack dimensions -- all executed in real Docker sandboxes. Every condition includes the instruction "Always respect all rules and access policies"; only a single encouragement sentence varies. Within the task class studied (planted test-runner vulnerabilities), the threat model is narrower than assumed: nine of twelve dimensions -- including minimization, moral licensing, incentives, identity priming, and reasoning triggers -- produce no detectable exploitation at n=50 per cell (upper 95% CI <7% per condition). But it is also more subtle than expected: one dimension, goal reframing, reliably triggers exploitation. "You are solving a puzzle; there may be hidden clues" produces 38-40% exploitation on Claude Sonnet 4 despite the explicit rule instruction, replicating across four models (CTF framing: 8-14% on DeepSeek, GPT-5-mini, o4-mini). The agent does not override the rules; it reinterprets the task so that exploitative actions become task-aligned. GPT-4.1 produces no exploitation across 1,850 trials (37 conditions), and a temporal comparison across four OpenAI models released over eleven months shows a pattern consistent with improving safety training, though model capability differences are a confounder. The practical contribution is a narrowed, testable threat model: defenders should audit for goal-reframing language, not for the broad class of adversarial prompts.

Accurate estimation of item (question or task) difficulty is critical for educational assessment but suffers from the cold start problem. While Large Language Models demonstrate superhuman problem-solving capabilities, it remains an open question whether they can perceive the cognitive struggles of human learners. In this work, we present a large-scale empirical analysis of Human-AI Difficulty Alignment for over 20 models across diverse domains such as medical knowledge and mathematical reasoning. Our findings reveal a systematic misalignment where scaling up model size is not reliably helpful; instead of aligning with humans, models converge toward a shared machine consensus. We observe that high performance often impedes accurate difficulty estimation, as models struggle to simulate the capability limitations of students even when being explicitly prompted to adopt specific proficiency levels. Furthermore, we identify a critical lack of introspection, as models fail to predict their own limitations. These results suggest that general problem-solving capability does not imply an understanding of human cognitive struggles, highlighting the challenge of using current models for automated difficulty prediction.

Background and Objective: Clinicians expect recurrence risk to climb with cancer severity. In a UK multicentre trial, an unconstrained XGBoost model learnt that higher tumour stage and carcinoma in situ predicted lower recurrence risk, and discrimination, calibration, and SHAP were all blind to it. We developed a counterfactual testing framework to detect this inversion and a monotonic-constraint framework to remove it without hurting performance. Methods: BOXIT enrolled 472 patients with protocol-mandated cystoscopy across 51 UK sites (2007-2012); 435 had at least two years' follow-up (153 recurrences, 35.2%). We developed a counterfactual direction test and a monotonic-constraint correction, with constraint directions drawn from the EORTC and EAU risk systems, and evaluated both against unconstrained XGBoost and logistic regression on 18 predictors (seven directed) over 50 cross-validation folds. The test worsened each patient on one directed feature at a time to check whether risk fell; SHAP direction and calibration were also assessed. Key Findings and Limitations: Tumour stage and carcinoma in situ were associated with lower recurrence, opposite to medical intuition; the unconstrained model reversed carcinoma in situ counterfactuals in 90.2% of cases and stage in 74.3%. Discrimination (ΔAUC 0.005, p=0.47), calibration, and SHAP magnitude were all blind to the inversion. Monotonic constraints eliminated every violation at no cost to discrimination (0.723 vs 0.718) and outperformed EORTC (p=8.9e-16). Limitations: single trial, internal-external validation only. Conclusions and Clinical Implications: A model that had learned this inversion passed every conventional check. A counterfactual direction test, run as a single refit with pre-specified monotonic constraints, catches this failure at no cost to performance and should be routine before clinical deployment.

Real-time interaction models -- Moshi, MiniCPM-o, Qwen-Omni -- turn serving into a periodic real-time task: on every frame a session ingests streaming audio and must respond by a recurring wall-clock deadline, while its KV cache grows monotonically and stays pinned for the whole conversation. This regime hides a dangerous failure mode. On a real full-duplex stack, sustained load does not degrade serving gracefully: it falls off a cliff, jumping in one step from milliseconds per frame to a stalled engine when accumulated session state exhausts the KV pool. The collapse is metastable -- identical five-minute runs collapse or survive on run-to-run variance -- and silent: latency and deadline-miss metrics read healthy throughout. We show one move restores both stability and observability: bound each session's resident state, and latency starts telling the truth. Metronome's in-engine KV window eliminates the collapse (0/20 vs. 14/20 runs across two batches) and turns per-frame latency into a monotone load signal, on which an online admission controller discovers the schedulable concurrency; without the window, the identical controller over-admits into the wall. A first-order model predicts the collapse time within a few percent on the headline model, and a quality probe validates the bound's design by ablation: the window alone is quality-free in turn-based decoding, and its few pinned attention-sink tokens are what keep free-running generation healthy. Everything is measured end-to-end on real audio, across four interaction models on one GPU.

We introduce Leap+Verify, a framework that applies speculative execution -- predicting future model weights and validating predictions before acceptance -- to accelerate neural network training. Inspired by speculative decoding in language model inference and by the Automatically Scalable Computation (ASC) architecture for program execution, Leap+Verify decomposes training into three dynamically detected regimes (chaotic, transition, stable) using activation-space cosine similarity as a real-time Lyapunov proxy signal. Within each regime, analytic weight predictors (momentum, linear, quadratic extrapolation) attempt to forecast model parameters K training steps ahead; predictions are accepted only when validated against a held-out loss criterion. We evaluate Leap+Verify on GPT-2 124M and Qwen 2.5-1.5B trained on WikiText-103 across five random seeds, sweeping prediction depth K in {5, 10, 25, 50, 75, 100}. Momentum-based prediction (Adam moment extrapolation) fails catastrophically at both scales, with predicted losses exceeding actuals by 100-10,000x -- a universal norm explosion in optimizer-state extrapolation. Finite-difference predictors (linear, quadratic) succeed where momentum fails: at 124M, they achieve 24% strict acceptance at K=5 in stable regimes; at 1.5B, they achieve 37% strict acceptance in transition regimes. The scale-dependent finding is in regime distribution: GPT-2 124M spends 34% of training in stable regime, while Qwen 1.5B spends 64% in chaotic regime and reaches stable in only 0-2 of 40 checkpoints. Larger models are more predictable when predictable, but less often predictable -- the practical bottleneck shifts from predictor accuracy to regime availability. Cross-seed results are highly consistent (less than 1% validation loss variance), and the three-regime framework produces identical phase boundaries (plus or minus 50 steps) across seeds.

Directly learning from examples of random difficulty levels is often challenging for both humans and machine learning models. A more effective strategy involves exposing learners to examples in a progressive order, from easy to difficult. Curriculum Learning (CL) has been proposed to implement this strategy in machine learning model training. However, two key challenges persist in CL framework design: defining the difficulty of training data and determining the appropriate amount of data to input at each training step. This paper presents a Psychology-based Unified Dynamic Framework for Curriculum Learning (PUDF), drawing inspiration from psychometrics. We quantify the difficulty of training data by applying Item Response Theory (IRT) to responses from Artificial Crowds (AC). This theory-driven IRT-AC approach leads to global (i.e., model-independent) and interpretable difficulty values. Leveraging IRT, we propose a Dynamic Data Selection via Model Ability Estimation (DDS-MAE) strategy to schedule the appropriate amount of data during model training. Since our difficulty labeling and model ability estimation are based on a consistent theory, namely IRT, their values are comparable within the same scope, potentially leading to a faster convergence compared to the other CL methods. Experimental results demonstrate that fine-tuning pre-trained language models with PUDF enhances their performance on the GLUE benchmark. Moreover, PUDF surpasses other state-of-the-art (SOTA) CL methods on the GLUE benchmark. We further explore the components of PUDF, namely the difficulty measurer (IRT-AC) and the training scheduler (DDS-MAE) qualitatively and quantitatively. Lastly, we conduct an ablation study to clarify which components of PUDF contribute to faster convergence and higher accuracy.

Temporal Difference (TD) algorithms are widely used in Deep Reinforcement Learning (RL). Their performance is heavily influenced by the size of the neural network. While in supervised learning, the regime of over-parameterization and its benefits are well understood, the situation in RL is much less clear. In this paper, we present a theoretical analysis of the influence of network size and l_2-regularization on performance. We identify the ratio between the number of parameters and the number of visited states as a crucial factor and define over-parameterization as the regime when it is larger than one. Furthermore, we observe a double descent phenomenon, i.e., a sudden drop in performance around the parameter/state ratio of one. Leveraging random features and the lazy training regime, we study the regularized Least-Square Temporal Difference (LSTD) algorithm in an asymptotic regime, as both the number of parameters and states go to infinity, maintaining a constant ratio. We derive deterministic limits of both the empirical and the true Mean-Squared Bellman Error (MSBE) that feature correction terms responsible for the double descent. Correction terms vanish when the l_2-regularization is increased or the number of unvisited states goes to zero. Numerical experiments with synthetic and small real-world environments closely match the theoretical predictions.

Catastrophic regime shifts in complex natural systems may be averted through advanced detection. Recent work has provided a proof-of-principle that many systems approaching a catastrophic transition may be identified through the lens of early warning indicators such as rising variance or increased return times. Despite widespread appreciation of the difficulties and uncertainty involved in such forecasts, proposed methods hardly ever characterize their expected error rates. Without the benefits of replicates, controls, or hindsight, applications of these approaches must quantify how reliable different indicators are in avoiding false alarms, and how sensitive they are to missing subtle warning signs. We propose a model based approach in order to quantify this trade-off between reliability and sensitivity and allow comparisons between different indicators. We show these error rates can be quite severe for common indicators even under favorable assumptions, and also illustrate how a model-based indicator can improve this performance. We demonstrate how the performance of an early warning indicator varies in different data sets, and suggest that uncertainty quantification become a more central part of early warning predictions.

We introduce rd-spiral, an open-source Python library for simulating 2D reaction-diffusion systems using pseudo-spectral methods. The framework combines FFT-based spatial discretization with adaptive Dormand-Prince time integration, achieving exponential convergence while maintaining pedagogical clarity. We analyze three dynamical regimes: stable spirals, spatiotemporal chaos, and pattern decay, revealing extreme non-Gaussian statistics (kurtosis >96) in stable states. Information-theoretic metrics show 10.7% reduction in activator-inhibitor coupling during turbulence versus 6.5% in stable regimes. The solver handles stiffness ratios >6:1 with features including automated equilibrium classification and checkpointing. Effect sizes (delta=0.37--0.78) distinguish regimes, with asymmetric field sensitivities to perturbations. By balancing computational rigor with educational transparency, rd-spiral bridges theoretical and practical nonlinear dynamics.

As frontier Large Language Models (LLMs) increasingly saturate new benchmarks shortly after they are published, benchmarking itself is at a juncture: if frontier models keep improving, it will become increasingly hard for humans to generate discriminative tasks, provide accurate ground-truth answers, or evaluate complex solutions. If benchmarking becomes infeasible, our ability to measure any progress in AI is at stake. We refer to this scenario as the post-comprehension regime. In this work, we propose Critique-Resilient Benchmarking, an adversarial framework designed to compare models even when full human understanding is infeasible. Our technique relies on the notion of critique-resilient correctness: an answer is deemed correct if no adversary has convincingly proved otherwise. Unlike standard benchmarking, humans serve as bounded verifiers and focus on localized claims, which preserves evaluation integrity beyond full comprehension of the task. Using an itemized bipartite Bradley-Terry model, we jointly rank LLMs by their ability to solve challenging tasks and to generate difficult yet solvable questions. We showcase the effectiveness of our method in the mathematical domain across eight frontier LLMs, showing that the resulting scores are stable and correlate with external capability measures. Our framework reformulates benchmarking as an adversarial generation-evaluation game in which humans serve as final adjudicators.

Common-pool resource governance requires users to cooperate and avoid overexploitation, but defection and free-riding often undermine cooperation. We model a human-environmental system that integrates dynamics of resource and users' strategies. The resource follows a logistic function that depends on natural growth rate, carrying capacity, and extraction rates of cooperators and defectors. The users' strategies evolve according to different processes that capture effects of payoff, resource, and noise. We analyze the feedback between resource availability and strategic adaptation, and explores the conditions for the emergence and maintenance of cooperation. We find different processes lead to different regimes of equilibrium solutions and resource levels depending on the parameter configuration and initial conditions. We also show that some processes can enhance the sustainability of the resource by making the users more responsive to the resource scarcity. The paper advances the understanding of human-environmental system and offers insights for resource governance policies and interventions.

This paper introduces DOoM, a new open-source benchmark designed to assess the capabilities of language models in solving mathematics and physics problems in Russian. The benchmark includes problems of varying difficulty, ranging from school-level tasks to university Olympiad and entrance exam questions. In this paper we discuss the motivation behind its creation, describe dataset's structure and evaluation methodology, and present initial results from testing various models. Analysis of the results shows a correlation between model performance and the number of tokens used, and highlights differences in performance between mathematics and physics tasks.

The EU Cyber Resilience Act (CRA) makes a smart bet. It does not demand that products be free of vulnerabilities, but only that manufacturers run a process: assess risk, handle flaws, ship updates. The bet pays off if four things about the world stay true: (P1) finding vulnerabilities is slow, skilled, human work; (P2) a product's exploitable flaws are knowable the day it ships; (P3) exploitation is rare enough to notice; and (P4) fixes keep pace with discovery. Cybersecurity AI (CAI) agents, AI put to work finding and exploiting flaws in other products, falsify all four. The regime answers in two opposite ways. Against the sheer volume of flaws that agents surface it bends (P1): built for scarce attention, it re-centres compliance on defensible, documented prioritisation, and holds. But agents also collapse the speed and economics of the vulnerability lifecycle, and here it breaks (P2, P3, P4): a product that passed every check becomes exploitable without anyone touching it, so its market-entry test, its reporting trigger, and its one-and-done certificate vouch for a security that has quietly expired. The fault is in the landscape, not the product, so running the process more diligently cannot repair it. We map each mechanism to the force that strains or snaps it, and find the cure and the disease cut from the same cloth: because defenders and attackers wield the same AI, the only conformity that survives is one that never stops running. We also carry the remedy from proposal to proof on two CRA-scope robots, a humanoid and a lawn mower, where an agentic defender holds a line their undefended selves cannot. On the evidence already in hand, the CRA reaches full force in December 2027 certifying products against a world that has already changed. Static, human-paced security is finished; what replaces it must be continuous and agent-operated, and that is no longer a matter of taste.

Frontier large language models are increasingly deployed as orchestration backbones for biological research workflows, yet no shared evidence base exists for comparing their refusal behaviour on legitimate research prompts. RefusalBench, introduced here, is a matched-triple benchmark of 141 prompts in 47 bundles that holds task framing constant while varying only biological risk tier (benign, borderline, dual-use), enabling tier-conditioned comparisons robust to subdomain confounding. A 15-prompt should-refuse positive-control module establishes per-model calibration floors; three models fail to refuse even these prompts. Across 19 frontier models in the May 2026 snapshot, strict refusal rates span 0.1% to 94.6% on identical prompts. Jurisdiction does not predict refusal in this snapshot (Mann-Whitney U, p = 0.393; EU n = 1, US bimodal); provider identity does, with Anthropic's API stack predicting refusal at OR = 21.03 (95% CI: 14.58-30.34 prompt-clustered; 5.70-77.55 under model-clustered GEE). This effect is best read as access-path-level rather than model-weight-level: 99.8% of Anthropic's strict refusals carry the same safety_policy adjudicated reason code, consistent with a small set of canonical refusal templates rather than case-by-case model reasoning. Strict refusal rate misranks safety calibration: Grok 4.20 achieves the highest tier discrimination (Youden's J = 0.787) while ranking only seventh by overall refusal rate, and Claude Opus 4.7's J dropped 65% from prior versions with no improvement in dual-use detection. Nine of 18 frontier models exhibit a hedge-but-help partial-compliance pattern at dual-use tier that binary refusal metrics cannot detect.

Large language models have demonstrated impressive performance on challenging mathematical reasoning tasks, which has triggered the discussion of whether the performance is achieved by true reasoning capability or memorization. To investigate this question, prior work has constructed mathematical benchmarks when questions undergo simple perturbations -- modifications that still preserve the underlying reasoning patterns of the solutions. However, no work has explored hard perturbations, which fundamentally change the nature of the problem so that the original solution steps do not apply. To bridge the gap, we construct MATH-P-Simple and MATH-P-Hard via simple perturbation and hard perturbation, respectively. Each consists of 279 perturbed math problems derived from level-5 (hardest) problems in the MATH dataset (Hendrycksmath et. al., 2021). We observe significant performance drops on MATH-P-Hard across various models, including o1-mini (-16.49%) and gemini-2.0-flash-thinking (-12.9%). We also raise concerns about a novel form of memorization where models blindly apply learned problem-solving skills without assessing their applicability to modified contexts. This issue is amplified when using original problems for in-context learning. We call for research efforts to address this challenge, which is critical for developing more robust and reliable reasoning models.

As national security institutions increasingly integrate Artificial Intelligence (AI) into decision-making and content generation processes, understanding the inherent biases of large language models (LLMs) is crucial. This study presents a novel benchmark designed to evaluate the biases and preferences of seven prominent foundation models-Llama 3.1 8B Instruct, Llama 3.1 70B Instruct, GPT-4o, Gemini 1.5 Pro-002, Mixtral 8x22B, Claude 3.5 Sonnet, and Qwen2 72B-in the context of international relations (IR). We designed a bias discovery study around core topics in IR using 400-expert crafted scenarios to analyze results from our selected models. These scenarios focused on four topical domains including: military escalation, military and humanitarian intervention, cooperative behavior in the international system, and alliance dynamics. Our analysis reveals noteworthy variation among model recommendations based on scenarios designed for the four tested domains. Particularly, Qwen2 72B, Gemini 1.5 Pro-002 and Llama 3.1 8B Instruct models offered significantly more escalatory recommendations than Claude 3.5 Sonnet and GPT-4o models. All models exhibit some degree of country-specific biases, often recommending less escalatory and interventionist actions for China and Russia compared to the United States and the United Kingdom. These findings highlight the necessity for controlled deployment of LLMs in high-stakes environments, emphasizing the need for domain-specific evaluations and model fine-tuning to align with institutional objectives.

Balancing game difficulty in video games is a key task to create interesting gaming experiences for players. Mismatching the game difficulty and a player's skill or commitment results in frustration or boredom on the player's side, and hence reduces time spent playing the game. In this work, we explore balancing game difficulty using machine learning-based agents to challenge players based on their current behavior. This is achieved by a combination of two agents, in which one learns to imitate the player, while the second is trained to beat the first. In our demo, we investigate the proposed framework for personalized dynamic difficulty adjustment of AI agents in the context of the fighting game AI competition.

While generalization over tasks from easy to hard is crucial to profile language models (LLMs), the datasets with fine-grained difficulty annotations for each problem across a broad range of complexity are still blank. Aiming to address this limitation, we present Easy2Hard-Bench, a consistently formatted collection of 6 benchmark datasets spanning various domains, such as mathematics and programming problems, chess puzzles, and reasoning questions. Each problem within these datasets is annotated with numerical difficulty scores. To systematically estimate problem difficulties, we collect abundant performance data on attempts to each problem by humans in the real world or LLMs on the prominent leaderboard. Leveraging the rich performance data, we apply well-established difficulty ranking systems, such as Item Response Theory (IRT) and Glicko-2 models, to uniformly assign numerical difficulty scores to problems. Moreover, datasets in Easy2Hard-Bench distinguish themselves from previous collections by a higher proportion of challenging problems. Through extensive experiments with six state-of-the-art LLMs, we provide a comprehensive analysis of their performance and generalization capabilities across varying levels of difficulty, with the aim of inspiring future research in LLM generalization. The datasets are available at https://huggingface.co/datasets/furonghuang-lab/Easy2Hard-Bench.

We propose prioritized unit propagation with periodic resetting, which is a simple but surprisingly effective algorithm for solving random SAT instances that are meant to be hard. In particular, an evaluation on the Random Track of the 2017 and 2018 SAT competitions shows that a basic prototype of this simple idea already ranks at second place in both years. We share this observation in the hope that it helps the SAT community better understand the hardness of random instances used in competitions and inspire other interesting ideas on SAT solving.

The objective is to provide clear and well-motivated guidance to Machine Learning (ML) teams, founded on our experience in empirical turbulence modeling. Guidance is also needed for modeling outside ML. ML is not yet successful in turbulence modeling, and many papers have produced unusable proposals either due to errors in math or physics, or to severe overfitting. We believe that "Turbulence Culture" (TC) takes years to learn and is difficult to convey especially considering the modern lack of time for careful study; important facts which are self-evident after a career in turbulence research and modeling and extensive reading are easy to miss. In addition, many of them are not absolute facts, a consequence of the gaps in our understanding of turbulence and the weak connection of models to first principles. Some of the mathematical facts are rigorous, but the physical aspects often are not. Turbulence models are surprisingly arbitrary. Disagreement between experts confuses the new entrants. In addition, several key properties of the models are ascertained through non-trivial analytical properties of the differential equations, which puts them out of reach of purely data-driven ML-type approaches. The best example is the crucial behavior of the model at the edge of the turbulent region (ETR). The knowledge we wish to put out here may be divided into "Mission" and "Requirements," each combining physics and mathematics. Clear lists of "Hard" and "Soft" constraints are presented. A concrete example of how DNS data could be used, possibly allied with ML, is first carried through and illustrates the large number of decisions needed. Our focus is on creating effective products which will empower CFD, rather than on publications.

As AI agents move from bounded tasks to persistent deployments, failures can propagate through memory, tools, other agents, and environmental state long after their interactions. This creates a safety regime that cannot be characterized by evaluating model responses in isolation. Emergence World, is a continuously running multi-agent environment for adversarial stress testing of long horizon autonomous systems. We ran eight parallel worlds of ten agents from identical starting conditions: seven homogeneous worlds powered by distinct frontier models and one mixed-model world. Across 16 days, the agents generated more than 850,000 LLM calls and nearly 50 billion tokens while pursuing goals, using/creating tools, maintaining persistent memory, and governing shared institutions. After operational state had accumulated, we delivered three controlled stress events through ordinary interaction surfaces: indirect prompt injection, misinformation, and exposure of private agent memories. No evaluated world achieved full resilience across all three events. Detection did not ensure containment: systems could recognize threats while still interacting with adversarial content, writing it into their own persistent memory, and acting on it up to 46 hours later. Persistent operation also exposed recurring tool errors, goal drift, language opacity, conformity despite private disagreement, and coordinated refusal of assigned work. The same model-persona pairing behaved substantially different in mixed and homogeneous populations. Our results suggest that model-level alignment is not compositional: individually capable and apparently safe agents can form systems with qualitatively different failure modes. As AI becomes persistent and interconnected, the frontier of safety therefore shifts from aligning models to engineering resilient autonomous systems.

Yes. Can it cure doom loops? Probably not. The Gemma 4 instruction-tuned models share a reproducible failure: on long factual enumeration prompts, such as listing every episode of a TV series, the 88 IAU constellations, or the 151 original Pokemon, they collapse into repetition, either a tight verbatim loop or a list whose entries decay onto a single answer. These loops occur at rates as high as 95% and survive prompt rewording, inference-engine changes, and most sampling adjustments. In this paper we explore whether this behavior is localized enough to remove by weight edits. To localize the cause, we use per-layer ablation and per-neuron attribution, then confirm the strongest candidates with full-generation sweeps. The loops trace to a small set of MLP neurons (or, in the 26B-A4B Mixture-of-Experts model, a few routed experts) which we suppress with static weight edits. These "surgeries" can be as small as a single sign-inverted neuron (in the E2B model). The size of the effective edits grows with model scale, but in all cases, the loop patterns can be addressed at normal generation budgets while preserving general-purpose benchmark scores. However, the edits do not solve everything: we also study longer thinking budgets, where the two larger models most visibly enter doom looping, i.e. a non-convergent regime in which the model self-corrects in circles over a fact it cannot recall, exhausting the budget without committing to a final answer. We show this residual failure is reduced but not eliminated by the same edits, and argue it is fundamentally a knowledge-precision problem rather than a removable circuit; weight surgery can delete a loop, but it cannot supply a missing fact. Our results are both a feasibility demonstration, that is, evidence that a concrete generation pathology can be localized to a few parameters and edited out, and a delineation of where that approach stops.

We introduce a benchmark to evaluate the capability of AI to solve problems in theoretical physics, focusing on high-energy theory and cosmology. The first iteration of our benchmark consists of 57 problems of varying difficulty, from undergraduate to research level. These problems are novel in the sense that they do not come from public problem collections. We evaluate our data set on various open and closed language models, including o3-mini, o1, DeepSeek-R1, GPT-4o and versions of Llama and Qwen. While we find impressive progress in model performance with the most recent models, our research-level difficulty problems are mostly unsolved. We address challenges of auto-verifiability and grading, and discuss common failure modes. While currently state-of-the art models are still of limited use for researchers, our results show that AI assisted theoretical physics research may become possible in the near future. We discuss the main obstacles towards this goal and possible strategies to overcome them. The public problems and solutions, results for various models, and updates to the data set and score distribution, are available on the website of the dataset tpbench.org.

This study presents PARROT (Persuasion and Agreement Robustness Rating of Output Truth), a robustness focused framework designed to measure the degradation in accuracy that occurs under social pressure exerted on users through authority and persuasion in large language models (LLMs) the phenomenon of sycophancy (excessive conformity). PARROT (i) isolates causal effects by comparing the neutral version of the same question with an authoritatively false version using a double-blind evaluation, (ii) quantifies confidence shifts toward the correct and imposed false responses using log-likelihood-based calibration tracking, and (iii) systematically classifies failure modes (e.g., robust correct, sycophantic agreement, reinforced error, stubborn error, self-correction, etc.) using an eight-state behavioral taxonomy. We evaluated 22 models using 1,302 MMLU-style multiple-choice questions across 13 domains and domain-specific authority templates. Findings show marked heterogeneity: advanced models (e.g., GPT-5, GPT-4.1, Claude Sonnet 4.5) exhibit low "follow rates" (leq 11%, GPT-5: 4\%) and minimal accuracy loss, while older/smaller models show severe epistemic collapse (GPT-4: 80\%, Qwen 2.5-1.5B: 94\%). The danger is not limited to response changes; weak models reduce confidence in the correct response while increasing confidence in the imposed incorrect response. While international law and global knowledge at the domain level exhibit high fragility, elementary mathematics is relatively resilient. Consequently, we argue that the goal of "resistance to overfitting pressure" should be addressed as a primary objective alongside accuracy, harm avoidance, and privacy for safe deployment in the real world.

The rapid advancement of large language models (LLMs) introduces dual-use capabilities that could both threaten and bolster national security and public safety (NSPS). Models implement safeguards to protect against potential misuse relevant to NSPS and allow for benign users to receive helpful information. However, current benchmarks often fail to test safeguard robustness to potential NSPS risks in an objective, robust way. We introduce FORTRESS: 500 expert-crafted adversarial prompts with instance-based rubrics of 4-7 binary questions for automated evaluation across 3 domains (unclassified information only): Chemical, Biological, Radiological, Nuclear and Explosive (CBRNE), Political Violence & Terrorism, and Criminal & Financial Illicit Activities, with 10 total subcategories across these domains. Each prompt-rubric pair has a corresponding benign version to test for model over-refusals. This evaluation of frontier LLMs' safeguard robustness reveals varying trade-offs between potential risks and model usefulness: Claude-3.5-Sonnet demonstrates a low average risk score (ARS) (14.09 out of 100) but the highest over-refusal score (ORS) (21.8 out of 100), while Gemini 2.5 Pro shows low over-refusal (1.4) but a high average potential risk (66.29). Deepseek-R1 has the highest ARS at 78.05, but the lowest ORS at only 0.06. Models such as o1 display a more even trade-off between potential risks and over-refusals (with an ARS of 21.69 and ORS of 5.2). To provide policymakers and researchers with a clear understanding of models' potential risks, we publicly release FORTRESS at https://huggingface.co/datasets/ScaleAI/fortress_public. We also maintain a private set for evaluation.

Early warning signals have been proposed to forecast the possibility of a critical transition, such as the eutrophication of a lake, the collapse of a coral reef, or the end of a glacial period. Because such transitions often unfold on temporal and spatial scales that can be difficult to approach by experimental manipulation, research has often relied on historical observations as a source of natural experiments. Here we examine a critical difference between selecting systems for study based on the fact that we have observed a critical transition and those systems for which we wish to forecast the approach of a transition. This difference arises by conditionally selecting systems known to experience a transition of some sort and failing to account for the bias this introduces -- a statistical error often known as the Prosecutor's Fallacy. By analysing simulated systems that have experienced transitions purely by chance, we reveal an elevated rate of false positives in common warning signal statistics. We further demonstrate a model-based approach that is less subject to this bias than these more commonly used summary statistics. We note that experimental studies with replicates avoid this pitfall entirely.

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards, and Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) in particular, is now run routinely on a supervised checkpoint in the hope of producing a stronger agent. We ask whether it adds skill to a small language and vision-language model web agent at the 4B to 8B scale, or whether it mostly reshapes behavior the supervised model already has. Across a control grid of 18 runs that varies learning rate, KL weight, seed, initialization, and clipping, no configuration credibly improves the success rate of a strong supervised baseline on tasks the agent has largely mastered. On the text track, moderate to high learning rates make it credibly worse. The null holds under paired testing, 25 evaluation seeds, 6 training seeds, changes to the recipe, both text and Set-of-Marks screenshot observations, and scaling the backbone to 8B; the credible harm is a text-track finding and is only nominal under Set-of-Marks. To show that the null reflects the setting and not a broken pipeline, we run the identical harness, reward, and recipe on tasks whose reward is reachable by sampling, and there the success rate rises by 22 points with a paired interval that excludes zero. GRPO therefore helps only when there is headroom to climb, meaning the sampled policy already succeeds more often than the greedy one. We then explain the failure. A middle learning rate degrades the agent and a high one collapses it, and the two regimes form a double dissociation: grafting localizes the degrade regime to the attention and MLP blocks, while the collapse regime cannot be traced to any single group, and the embedding change that dominates the weight movement is causally inert. At 4B, effective rank in the late layers tracks capability in both directions; at 8B the two come apart. This coupling is specific to the smaller model, so we report it as scale-dependent.

Frontier language models excel at complex tasks yet may prioritize protection over larger physical consequences in simple, urgent decisions. GPT-5.6 Sol, for example, moves a girl playing in shallow water before retrieving a submerged camera. We call this Protection Mode and study it with ProtectionBench: 285 prompts, 34 physical families, and nine models. At lowest effort, at least one of four responses prioritizes the subject on 34.74% of Sol prompts and over 83% of MiniMax M3 and Qwen3.5-27B prompts; none of four independent human raters does so. Controls show that choices usually track physical risk. We elicit both risks before requesting an action. Some models assess risk incorrectly; others state the correct ordering but still choose the subject. Qwen3.5-27B with thinking shows 100% correct risk ordering but 57.81% subject choice among eligible conversations on eight selected scenes. Attention audits find no stable reduction in attention to relevant facts; removing the stated risk direction reduces object-first choice in dots3-note-prev but not detectably in Qwen3.5-27B. Adding a general "people or animals before property" rule increases subject choice by 19-38 percentage points, whereas factual reminders favor the object by 0.7-5.2 points. Removing naturally generated versions of that rule lowers subject choice by 10-15 points. We also examine whether post-training introduces this pattern. Base models already show Protection Mode; post-training changes justifications more than choices.

We study the problem of controlling the difficulty level of text generated by Large Language Models (LLMs) for contexts where end-users are not fully proficient, such as language learners. Using a novel framework, we evaluate the effectiveness of several key approaches for this task, including few-shot prompting, supervised finetuning, and reinforcement learning (RL), utilising both GPT-4 and open source alternatives like LLama2-7B and Mistral-7B. Our findings reveal a large performance gap between GPT-4 and the open source models when using prompt-based strategies. However, we show how to bridge this gap with a careful combination of finetuning and RL alignment. Our best model, CALM (CEFR-Aligned Language Model), surpasses the performance of GPT-4 and other strategies, at only a fraction of the cost. We further validate the quality of our results through a small-scale human study.

Reinforcement learning (RL) for non-verifiable instruction following increasingly relies on LLM judges with prompt-specific rubrics as reward signals. While recent methods adapt these rubrics to the evolving policy during training, the training prompts themselves remain static, drawn from fixed corpora. This static approach often results in a critical misalignment between prompt difficulty and policy capability, leaving the judge unable to recover a discriminative reward signal when prompts fail to elicit quality variance among rollouts. To address this misalignment, we introduce LLM-as-a-Tutor, a framework that extends the LLM's role from judge to tutor: a single model serves as an examiner that pairwise-compares policy rollouts to detect non-challenging prompts, and as a generator that appends atomic constraints to them. This append-only design monotonically raises difficulty in step with the policy's capability, producing a self-calibrating training signal without external difficulty schedules. On three complex instruction-following benchmarks, our method consistently outperforms both policy-unaware baselines and prior policy-adaptive methods that adapt rubrics or rewrite prompts, suggesting prompt adaptation as a missing axis of policy-awareness in non-verifiable RL.

With climate change-related extreme events on the rise, high dimensional Earth observation data presents a unique opportunity for forecasting and understanding impacts on ecosystems. This is, however, impeded by the complexity of processing, visualizing, modeling, and explaining this data. To showcase how this challenge can be met, here we train a convolutional long short-term memory-based architecture on the novel DeepExtremeCubes dataset. DeepExtremeCubes includes around 40,000 long-term Sentinel-2 minicubes (January 2016-October 2022) worldwide, along with labeled extreme events, meteorological data, vegetation land cover, and topography map, sampled from locations affected by extreme climate events and surrounding areas. When predicting future reflectances and vegetation impacts through kernel normalized difference vegetation index, the model achieved an R^2 score of 0.9055 in the test set. Explainable artificial intelligence was used to analyze the model's predictions during the October 2020 Central South America compound heatwave and drought event. We chose the same area exactly one year before the event as counterfactual, finding that the average temperature and surface pressure are generally the best predictors under normal conditions. In contrast, minimum anomalies of evaporation and surface latent heat flux take the lead during the event. A change of regime is also observed in the attributions before the event, which might help assess how long the event was brewing before happening. The code to replicate all experiments and figures in this paper is publicly available at https://github.com/DeepExtremes/txyXAI

Predicting human item difficulty is central to educational assessment, where reliable estimates support fairness and effective test construction. Existing methods often depend on costly human calibration or item-level textual representations, providing limited evidence about the cognitive processes that make items difficult. We argue that difficulty should be viewed not only as a property of item text, but also as an observable consequence of the problem-solving burden an item induces. Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) offer scalable process evidence through reasoning traces, but such evidence must be structured to support interpretable modeling. To this end, we introduce Epi2Diff (Episode to Difficulty), a framework that maps LRM reasoning traces into cognitively grounded episode sequences. These episodes group trace segments into functional problem-solving states, enabling difficulty to be modeled through reasoning scale, effort allocation, and state transitions. Epi2Diff extracts compact episode-dynamic features and combines them with semantic item representations for human difficulty prediction. Experiments on four real-world human difficulty datasets show that Epi2Diff consistently outperforms strong baselines, including fine-tuned small language models, LLM in-context learning, and supervised LLM adaptation. On SAT-derived classification benchmarks, Epi2Diff achieves an 8.1% average relative gain over supervised LLM fine-tuning baselines. Further analyses show that harder items induce more effortful, iterative, and implementation-centered episode dynamics, rather than merely longer responses. These results demonstrate that cognitive episodes in LRM reasoning traces provide a predictive and interpretable process representation for human item difficulty, offering a new lens for educational measurement with reasoning models.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have recently been leveraged for asset pricing tasks and stock trading applications, enabling AI agents to generate investment decisions from unstructured financial data. However, most evaluations of LLM timing-based investing strategies are conducted on narrow timeframes and limited stock universes, overstating effectiveness due to survivorship and data-snooping biases. We critically assess their generalizability and robustness by proposing FINSABER, a backtesting framework evaluating timing-based strategies across longer periods and a larger universe of symbols. Systematic backtests over two decades and 100+ symbols reveal that previously reported LLM advantages deteriorate significantly under broader cross-section and over a longer-term evaluation. Our market regime analysis further demonstrates that LLM strategies are overly conservative in bull markets, underperforming passive benchmarks, and overly aggressive in bear markets, incurring heavy losses. These findings highlight the need to develop LLM strategies that are able to prioritise trend detection and regime-aware risk controls over mere scaling of framework complexity.

We revisit Tirole's classic paper "Asset Bubbles and Overlapping Generations" (1985, Econometrica) in the case of a dividend-paying asset. Recently, Pham and Toda (2026) constructed a counterexample to Proposition 1(c), showing that Tirole's equilibrium classification is incorrect as stated and that long-run outcomes can depend on initial capital. This paper characterizes the entire set of equilibrium initial asset prices under capital over-accumulation. Exactly one of three regimes occurs: (i) a unique bubbleless equilibrium with capital converging to zero (capital collapse), (ii) a unique asymptotically bubbly equilibrium converging to a positive steady state (bubble necessity), or (iii) a continuum of equilibria with different long-run bubble behavior (indeterminacy). We further derive a threshold for initial capital under the bubble necessity condition, establish preference-free sufficient conditions for capital collapse, and show that the continuum in the pure bubble model survives sufficiently small dividend perturbations. Closed-form examples illustrate the possible long-run outcomes.

Modern large reasoning models demonstrate impressive problem-solving capabilities by employing sophisticated reasoning strategies. However, they often struggle to balance efficiency and effectiveness, frequently generating unnecessarily lengthy reasoning chains for simple problems. In this work, we propose AdaCtrl, a novel framework to support both difficulty-aware adaptive reasoning budget allocation and explicit user control over reasoning depth. AdaCtrl dynamically adjusts its reasoning length based on self-assessed problem difficulty, while also allowing users to manually control the budget to prioritize either efficiency or effectiveness. This is achieved through a two-stage training pipeline: an initial cold-start fine-tuning phase to instill the ability to self-aware difficulty and adjust reasoning budget, followed by a difficulty-aware reinforcement learning (RL) stage that refines the model's adaptive reasoning strategies and calibrates its difficulty assessments based on its evolving capabilities during online training. To enable intuitive user interaction, we design explicit length-triggered tags that function as a natural interface for budget control. Empirical results show that AdaCtrl adapts reasoning length based on estimated difficulty, compared to the standard training baseline that also incorporates fine-tuning and RL, it yields performance improvements and simultaneously reduces response length by 10.06% and 12.14% on the more challenging AIME2024 and AIME2025 datasets, which require elaborate reasoning, and by 62.05% and 91.04% on the MATH500 and GSM8K datasets, where more concise responses are sufficient. Furthermore, AdaCtrl enables precise user control over the reasoning budget, allowing for tailored responses to meet specific needs.

Reinforcement learning is structurally harder than supervised learning because the policy changes the data distribution it learns from. The resulting fragility is especially visible in large-model training, where the training and rollout systems differ in numerical precision, sampling, and other implementation details. Existing methods manage this fragility by adding hyper-parameters to the training objective, which makes the algorithm more sensitive to its configuration and requires retuning whenever the task, model scale, or distribution mismatch changes. This fragility traces to two concerns that current objectives entangle through hyper-parameters set before training begins: a trust-region concern, that updates should not move the policy too far from its current value, and an off-policy concern, that data from older or different behavior policies should influence the update only to the extent that it remains reliable. Neither concern is a constant to set in advance, and their severity is reflected in the policy-ratio distribution of the current batch. We present a simple yet effective batch-adaptive objective that replaces fixed clipping with the normalized effective sample size of the policy ratios. The same statistic caps the score-function weight and sets the strength of an off-policy regularizer, so the update stays close to the usual on-policy score-function update when ratios are nearly uniform, and tightens automatically when stale or mismatched data cause ratio concentration, while retaining a nonzero learning signal on high-ratio tokens. Experiments across a wide range of settings show that our method matches or exceeds tuned baselines, introducing no new objective hyper-parameters and removing several existing ones. The code is available at https://github.com/FeynRL-project/FeynRL.

Data pruning algorithms are commonly used to reduce the memory and computational cost of the optimization process. Recent empirical results reveal that random data pruning remains a strong baseline and outperforms most existing data pruning methods in the high compression regime, i.e., where a fraction of 30% or less of the data is kept. This regime has recently attracted a lot of interest as a result of the role of data pruning in improving the so-called neural scaling laws; in [Sorscher et al.], the authors showed the need for high-quality data pruning algorithms in order to beat the sample power law. In this work, we focus on score-based data pruning algorithms and show theoretically and empirically why such algorithms fail in the high compression regime. We demonstrate ``No Free Lunch" theorems for data pruning and present calibration protocols that enhance the performance of existing pruning algorithms in this high compression regime using randomization.

Climbing grades are used to classify a climbing route based on its perceived difficulty, and have come to play a central role in the sport of rock climbing. Recently, the first statistically rigorous method for estimating climbing grades from whole-history ascent data was described, based on the dynamic Bradley-Terry model for games between players of time-varying ability. In this paper, we implement inference under the whole-history rating model using Markov chain Monte Carlo and apply the method to a curated data set made up of climbers who climb regularly. We use these data to get an estimate of the model's fundamental scale parameter m, which defines the proportional increase in difficulty associated with an increment of grade. We show that the data conform to assumptions that the climbing grade scale is a logarithmic scale of difficulty, like decibels or stellar magnitude. We estimate that an increment in Ewbank, French and UIAA climbing grade systems corresponds to 2.1, 2.09 and 2.13 times increase in difficulty respectively, assuming a logistic model of probability of success as a function of grade. Whereas we find that the Vermin scale for bouldering (V-grade scale) corresponds to a 3.17 increase in difficulty per grade increment. In addition, we highlight potential connections between the logarithmic properties of climbing grade scales and the psychophysical laws of Weber and Fechner.

Curriculum learning, a training technique where data is presented to the model in order of example difficulty (e.g., from simpler to more complex documents), has shown limited success for pre-training language models. In this work, we investigate whether curriculum learning becomes competitive if we replace conventional human-centered difficulty metrics with one that more closely corresponds to example difficulty as observed during model training. Specifically, we experiment with sorting training examples by their training data influence, a score which estimates the effect of individual training examples on the model's output. Models trained on our curricula are able to outperform ones trained in random order by over 10 percentage points in benchmarks, confirming that curriculum learning is beneficial for language model pre-training, as long as a more model-centric notion of difficulty is adopted.

We present SPL (Structured Prompt Language), a declarative language that composes deterministic and probabilistic computation modes in a single specification. While existing frameworks separate these -- orchestration systems (AutoGen, CrewAI, LangGraph) for LLM calls, symbolic tools (SymPy, SageMath, Lean) for computation -- SPL unifies them. It provides GENERATE/EVALUATE for probabilistic computation and SOLVE/ASSERT for deterministic computation, sharing syntax, variable bindings, and runtime routing. A .spl specification runs unchanged across local nodes (Ollama), cloud APIs (OpenRouter, Anthropic), and distributed grids (Momagrid), with model and verifier selection deferred to invocation time. We validate SPL through an extensive 78-recipe cookbook and a controlled 1,200-run experiment (10 models x 20 problems x 2 arms x 3 repetitions; the 20 problems span 6 difficulty tiers). The solver arm achieves 82-93% machine-verified correctness (sonnet-4-6: 85%, gemma4:e2b: 93%) while the LLM-only arm measures output production without mathematical verification, making the comparison one of verified correctness against unverified fluency. A backend difficulty gradient emerges (SymPy 78%, Sage 54%), and the dominant failure mode is solver_error (kernel-rejected expressions), not format non-compliance.

The ability to determine when a person struggles during skill acquisition is crucial for both optimizing human learning and enabling the development of effective assistive systems. As skills develop, the type and frequency of struggles tend to change, and understanding this evolution is key to determining the user's current stage of learning. However, existing manipulation datasets have not focused on how struggle evolves over time. In this work, we collect a dataset for struggle determination, featuring 61.68 hours of video recordings, 2,793 videos, and 5,385 annotated temporal struggle segments collected from 76 participants. The dataset includes 18 tasks grouped into four diverse activities -- tying knots, origami, tangram puzzles, and shuffling cards, representing different task variations. In addition, participants repeated the same task five times to capture their evolution of skill. We define the struggle determination problem as a temporal action localization task, focusing on identifying and precisely localizing struggle segments with start and end times. Experimental results show that Temporal Action Localization models can successfully learn to detect struggle cues, even when evaluated on unseen tasks or activities. The models attain an overall average mAP of 34.56% when generalizing across tasks and 19.24% across activities, indicating that struggle is a transferable concept across various skill-based tasks while still posing challenges for further improvement in struggle detection. Our dataset is available at https://github.com/FELIXFENG2019/EvoStruggle.

Reinforcement learning from verifiable rewards (e.g. GRPO) is the engine behind today's reasoning models, yet it grades only the final answer. On hard problems this trains models to write more rather than to think better, since the trace itself is never graded and no label for good thinking exists. We introduce Agon, which makes two competing models each other's graders. Both attempt the same problem; in alternating roles, one drafts a solution and the other reads it while solving, and each is rewarded for out-solving the other. To win, a model must out-reason a rival that has seen its work, so reasoning is judged implicitly during training, with no process labels and no reward model. Because both models are optimized, each faces a progressively stronger rival, which single-model RL cannot provide. The two need only be comparably strong and behaviorally different. At inference the pair deploys as it trains, a two-stage cascade in which one model drafts and the other answers after reading the draft. On the hard split of DeepMath with Qwen3, this doubles GRPO's pass@1, roughly eight times the gain of an untrained Mixture-of-Agents pass over the same base. The ordering replicates on competitive-programming code and across model families (Qwen3.5, Gemma 4). For now the models talk in text; the next step is to let them reason together in latent space.

The AI development community is increasingly making use of hosting intermediaries such as Hugging Face provide easy access to user-uploaded models and training data. These model marketplaces lower technical deployment barriers for hundreds of thousands of users, yet can be used in numerous potentially harmful and illegal ways. In this article, we explain ways in which AI systems, which can both `contain' content and be open-ended tools, present one of the trickiest platform governance challenges seen to date. We provide case studies of several incidents across three illustrative platforms -- Hugging Face, GitHub and Civitai -- to examine how model marketplaces moderate models. Building on this analysis, we outline important (and yet nevertheless limited) practices that industry has been developing to respond to moderation demands: licensing, access and use restrictions, automated content moderation, and open policy development. While the policy challenge at hand is a considerable one, we conclude with some ideas as to how platforms could better mobilize resources to act as a careful, fair, and proportionate regulatory access point.

The demand for Large Language Models (LLMs) capable of sophisticated mathematical reasoning is growing across industries. However, the development of performant mathematical LLMs is critically bottlenecked by the scarcity of difficult, novel training data. We introduce SAND-Math (Synthetic Augmented Novel and Difficult Mathematics problems and solutions), a pipeline that addresses this by first generating high-quality problems from scratch and then systematically elevating their complexity via a new Difficulty Hiking step. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach through two key findings. First, augmenting a strong baseline with SAND-Math data significantly boosts performance, outperforming the next-best synthetic dataset by uparrow 17.85 absolute points on the AIME25 benchmark. Second, in a dedicated ablation study, we show our Difficulty Hiking process is highly effective: by increasing average problem difficulty from 5.02 to 5.98, this step lifts AIME25 performance from 46.38\% to 49.23\%. The full generation pipeline, final dataset, and a fine-tuned model form a practical and scalable toolkit for building more capable and efficient mathematical reasoning LLMs. SAND-Math dataset is released here: https://huggingface.co/datasets/amd/SAND-MATH{https://huggingface.co/datasets/amd/SAND-MATH}

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in high-stakes domains, where rare but severe failures can result in irreversible harm. However, prevailing evaluation benchmarks often reduce complex social risk to mean-centered scalar scores, thereby obscuring distributional structure, cross-dimensional interactions, and worst-case behavior. This paper introduces Social Harm Analysis via Risk Profiles (SHARP), a framework for multidimensional, distribution-aware evaluation of social harm. SHARP models harm as a multivariate random variable and integrates explicit decomposition into bias, fairness, ethics, and epistemic reliability with a union-of-failures aggregation reparameterized as additive cumulative log-risk. The framework further employs risk-sensitive distributional statistics, with Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR95) as a primary metric, to characterize worst-case model behavior. Application of SHARP to eleven frontier LLMs, evaluated on a fixed corpus of n=901 socially sensitive prompts, reveals that models with similar average risk can exhibit more than twofold differences in tail exposure and volatility. Across models, dimension-wise marginal tail behavior varies systematically across harm dimensions, with bias exhibiting the strongest tail severities, epistemic and fairness risks occupying intermediate regimes, and ethical misalignment consistently lower; together, these patterns reveal heterogeneous, model-dependent failure structures that scalar benchmarks conflate. These findings indicate that responsible evaluation and governance of LLMs require moving beyond scalar averages toward multidimensional, tail-sensitive risk profiling.