Daily Papers

Self-play is an effective paradigm for language-model self-evolution, but without guidance, solver performance can plateau or decline across rounds. Unguided methods steer question generation with signals such as difficulty, learnability, or diversity. These signals keep questions challenging and varied but do not specify which unresolved reasoning weaknesses later rounds should target. Guided methods obtain direction from external task resources, including human examples, document corpora, or specified difficulty targets, and therefore rely on task information supplied outside the self-play loop. We show that the needed direction can instead be derived from the solver's own failure history. We introduce DiagEvo, whose diagnostician extracts recurring error causes from this history and stores them in a hierarchical error-cause memory. The memory groups related causes under skill nodes and tracks each as Active or Mastered according to self-consistency on targeted questions. The challenger uses these states and recurrence counts to balance cause-targeted generation with free exploration. Double-confidence filtering retains intermediate-difficulty questions only when the most common solver answer has a clear vote lead. DiagEvo derives its curriculum from information produced during self-play, without external task resources. With the default 4B diagnostician, DiagEvo outperforms every baseline in mean accuracy across all nine benchmarks for each of the three solvers: Qwen3-4B, Qwen3-8B, and OctoThinker-8B. On Qwen3-8B, it reaches 72.3% mean accuracy across five mathematical reasoning benchmarks, 4.5 percentage points above R-Zero. Its mean accuracy across all nine benchmarks is 57.4%, 1.1 percentage points above DARC. Ablations show that the hierarchical error-cause memory and double-confidence filtering both contribute to these gains.

Noise plagues many numerical datasets, where the recorded values in the data may fail to match the true underlying values due to reasons including: erroneous sensors, data entry/processing mistakes, or imperfect human estimates. We consider general regression settings with covariates and a potentially corrupted response whose observed values may contain errors. By accounting for various uncertainties, we introduced veracity scores that distinguish between genuine errors and natural data fluctuations, conditioned on the available covariate information in the dataset. We propose a simple yet efficient filtering procedure for eliminating potential errors, and establish theoretical guarantees for our method. We also contribute a new error detection benchmark involving 5 regression datasets with real-world numerical errors (for which the true values are also known). In this benchmark and additional simulation studies, our method identifies incorrect values with better precision/recall than other approaches.

Large Reasoning Models have demonstrated remarkable performance with the advancement of test-time scaling techniques, which enhances prediction accuracy by generating multiple candidate responses and selecting the most reliable answer. While prior work has analyzed that internal model signals like confidence scores can partly indicate response correctness and exhibit a distributional correlation with accuracy, such distributional information has not been fully utilized to guide answer selection. Motivated by this, we propose DistriVoting, which incorporates distributional priors as another signal alongside confidence during voting. Specifically, our method (1) first decomposes the mixed confidence distribution into positive and negative components using Gaussian Mixture Models, (2) then applies a reject filter based on positive/negative samples from them to mitigate overlap between the two distributions. Besides, to further alleviate the overlap from the perspective of distribution itself, we propose SelfStepConf, which uses step-level confidence to dynamically adjust inference process, increasing the separation between the two distributions to improve the reliability of confidences in voting. Experiments across 16 models and 5 benchmarks demonstrate that our method significantly outperforms state-of-the-art approaches.

Semi-supervised semantic segmentation has long turned on one question, which pseudo-labels to trust, and a generation of selection rules, dynamic thresholds, per-class curricula, soft confidence weights, answered it for the noisy, under-confident ResNet teachers of their day. Self-supervised foundation encoders change the regime: with a DINOv2 teacher, confidence saturates, so the filtering that helped a weak teacher can hurt a strong one. We propose CW-BASS v2, a saturation-aware pseudo-label selection method that reads the teacher's confidence regime rather than committing to one rule. It pairs held-out calibration, an unbiased per-class noise estimate, with a self-adaptive confidence floor that provably bounds retention away from 1, and combines them in a one-pass gate: measure the reliability of the teacher's confident set, pi_kept = Pr[correct | c >= tau], on a held-out slice, and filter strictly when it meets the confidence demanded (pi_kept >= tau), falling back to the adaptive floor otherwise. The boundary is the pre-existing operating threshold, not a value tuned to mIoU, and across six DINOv2 teachers it makes the correct strict-vs-floor call blind. CW-BASS v2 thus recovers the UniMatch V2 operating point on the saturated benchmarks by selecting strict (Pascal VOC 1/8 87.4 against its reported 87.9; Cityscapes within 0.5), and improves on it where the confident set is unreliable (pi_kept ~ 89%, ADE20K), where the floor edges ahead (+1.5 mIoU, single seed). The gate is principled because the failure it avoids is measured, not assumed: on a reliable, saturated teacher the confidence distribution's dynamic range collapses (98% of Pascal pixels >= 0.95), so an adaptive cutoff floods the retention mask and self-training decays into confirmation bias.

Video diffusion transformers have achieved state-of-the-art visual quality, but their high inference cost remains a major bottleneck for real-time applications. Recent distillation frameworks produce autoregressive video diffusion models with reduced latency, yet these models still use a fixed number of denoising steps per frame, wasting computation on predictable frames and under-refining challenging ones. We present DSA, a confidence-guided adaptive computation framework for AR video diffusion. DSA introduces a lightweight confidence head, trained jointly with the generator under a distribution-matching distillation objective, to estimate per-frame denoising reliability. At inference, this confidence signal dynamically adjusts the number of diffusion steps: simple frames terminate early for speed, while complex frames receive additional refinement. Our method requires no extra video data, no heuristics, and little architectural modification. Experiments show that DSA achieves real-time autoregressive video generation, reaching 22.63 FPS with sub-second latency on H100 GPUs, while maintaining competitive or superior VBench quality compared to recent autoregressive and bidirectional video diffusion models. Our results demonstrate that confidence-guided adaptive sampling provides an effective and practical path toward interactive video generation.

Diffusion language models (DLMs) provide a bidirectional generation framework naturally suited for infilling, yet their performance is constrained by the pre-specified infilling length. In this paper, we reveal that DLMs possess an inherent ability to discover the correct infilling length. We identify two key statistical phenomena in the first-step denoising confidence: a local Oracle Peak that emerges near the ground-truth length and a systematic Length Bias that often obscures this signal. By leveraging this signal and calibrating the bias, our training-free method CAL (Calibrated Adaptive Length) enables DLMs to approximate the optimal length through an efficient search before formal decoding. Empirical evaluations demonstrate that CAL improves Pass@1 by up to 47.7\% over fixed-length baselines and 40.5\% over chat-based adaptive methods in code infilling, while boosting BLEU-2 and ROUGE-L by up to 8.5\% and 9.9\% in text infilling. These results demonstrate that CAL paves the way for robust DLM infilling without requiring any specialized training. Code is available at https://github.com/NiuHechang/Calibrated_Adaptive_Length.

Large vision-language models suffer from visual ungroundedness: they can produce a fluent, confident, and even correct response driven entirely by language priors, with the image contributing nothing to the prediction. Existing confidence estimation methods cannot detect this, as they observe model behavior under normal inference with no mechanism to determine whether a prediction was shaped by the image or by text alone. We introduce BICR (Blind-Image Contrastive Ranking), a model-agnostic confidence estimation framework that makes this contrast explicit during training by extracting hidden states from a frozen LVLM twice: once with the real image-question pair, and once with the image blacked out while the question is held fixed. A lightweight probe is trained on the real-image hidden state and regularized by a ranking loss that penalizes higher confidence on the blacked-out view, teaching it to treat visual grounding as a signal of reliability at zero additional inference cost. Evaluated across five modern LVLMs and seven baselines on a benchmark covering visual question answering, object hallucination detection, medical imaging, and financial document understanding, BICR achieves the best cross-LVLM average on both calibration and discrimination simultaneously, with statistically significant discrimination gains robust to cluster-aware analysis at 4-18x fewer parameters than the strongest probing baseline.

Recent advances in block diffusion language models have demonstrated competitive performance and strong scalability on reasoning tasks. However, existing BDLMs have limited exploration under the test-time scaling setting and face more severe decoding challenges in long Chain-of-Thought reasoning, particularly in balancing the decoding speed and effectiveness. In this work, we propose a unified framework for test-time scaling in BDLMs that introduces adaptivity in both decoding and block-wise generation. At the decoding level, we propose Bounded Adaptive Confidence Decoding (BACD), a difficulty-aware sampling strategy that dynamically adjusts denoising based on model confidence, accelerating inference while controlling error accumulation. Beyond step-wise adaptivity, we introduce Think Coarse, Critic Fine (TCCF), a test-time scaling paradigm that allocates large block sizes to exploratory reasoning and smaller block sizes to refinement, achieving an effective efficiency-effectiveness balance. To enable efficient and effective decoding with a large block size, we adopt Progressive Block Size Extension, which mitigates performance degradation when scaling block sizes. Extensive experiments show that applying BACD and TCCF to TDAR-8B yields significant improvements over strong baselines such as TraDo-8B (2.26x speedup, +11.2 points on AIME24). These results mark an important step toward unlocking the potential of BDLMs for test-time scaling in complex reasoning tasks.

Bayesian filtering approximates the true underlying behavior of a time-varying system by inverting an explicit generative model to convert noisy measurements into state estimates. This process typically requires either storage, inversion, and multiplication of large matrices or Monte Carlo estimation, neither of which are practical in high-dimensional state spaces such as the weight spaces of artificial neural networks. Here, we frame the standard Bayesian filtering problem as optimization over a time-varying objective. Instead of maintaining matrices for the filtering equations or simulating particles, we specify an optimizer that defines the Bayesian filter implicitly. In the linear-Gaussian setting, we show that every Kalman filter has an equivalent formulation using K steps of gradient descent. In the nonlinear setting, our experiments demonstrate that our framework results in filters that are effective, robust, and scalable to high-dimensional systems, comparing well against the standard toolbox of Bayesian filtering solutions. We suggest that it is easier to fine-tune an optimizer than it is to specify the correct filtering equations, making our framework an attractive option for high-dimensional filtering problems.

Estimating uncertainty or confidence in the responses of a model can be significant in evaluating trust not only in the responses, but also in the model as a whole. In this paper, we explore the problem of estimating confidence for responses of large language models (LLMs) with simply black-box or query access to them. We propose a simple and extensible framework where, we engineer novel features and train a (interpretable) model (viz. logistic regression) on these features to estimate the confidence. We empirically demonstrate that our simple framework is effective in estimating confidence of flan-ul2, llama-13b and mistral-7b with it consistently outperforming existing black-box confidence estimation approaches on benchmark datasets such as TriviaQA, SQuAD, CoQA and Natural Questions by even over 10% (on AUROC) in some cases. Additionally, our interpretable approach provides insight into features that are predictive of confidence, leading to the interesting and useful discovery that our confidence models built for one LLM generalize zero-shot across others on a given dataset.

Double descent presents a counter-intuitive aspect within the machine learning domain, and researchers have observed its manifestation in various models and tasks. While some theoretical explanations have been proposed for this phenomenon in specific contexts, an accepted theory to account for its occurrence in deep learning remains yet to be established. In this study, we revisit the phenomenon of double descent and demonstrate that its occurrence is strongly influenced by the presence of noisy data. Through conducting a comprehensive analysis of the feature space of learned representations, we unveil that double descent arises in imperfect models trained with noisy data. We argue that double descent is a consequence of the model first learning the noisy data until interpolation and then adding implicit regularization via over-parameterization acquiring therefore capability to separate the information from the noise.

Randomized Smoothing (RS) has been proven a promising method for endowing an arbitrary image classifier with certified robustness. However, the substantial uncertainty inherent in the high-dimensional isotropic Gaussian noise imposes the curse of dimensionality on RS. Specifically, the upper bound of {ell_2} certified robustness radius provided by RS exhibits a diminishing trend with the expansion of the input dimension d, proportionally decreasing at a rate of 1/d. This paper explores the feasibility of providing {ell_2} certified robustness for high-dimensional input through the utilization of dual smoothing in the lower-dimensional space. The proposed Dual Randomized Smoothing (DRS) down-samples the input image into two sub-images and smooths the two sub-images in lower dimensions. Theoretically, we prove that DRS guarantees a tight {ell_2} certified robustness radius for the original input and reveal that DRS attains a superior upper bound on the {ell_2} robustness radius, which decreases proportionally at a rate of (1/sqrt m + 1/sqrt n ) with m+n=d. Extensive experiments demonstrate the generalizability and effectiveness of DRS, which exhibits a notable capability to integrate with established methodologies, yielding substantial improvements in both accuracy and {ell_2} certified robustness baselines of RS on the CIFAR-10 and ImageNet datasets. Code is available at https://github.com/xiasong0501/DRS.

We investigate data filtering for large model pretraining via new scaling studies that target the high compute, data-scarce regime. In spite of an apparently common belief that filtering data to include only high-quality information is essential, our experiments suggest that with enough compute, the best data filter is no data filter. We find that sufficiently trained large parameter models not only tolerate low-quality and distractor data, but in fact benefit from nominally ``poor'' data.

While confidence estimation is a promising direction for mitigating hallucinations in Large Language Models (LLMs), current research dominantly focuses on single-turn settings. The dynamics of model confidence in multi-turn conversations, where context accumulates and ambiguity is progressively resolved, remain largely unexplored. Reliable confidence estimation in multi-turn settings is critical for many downstream applications, such as autonomous agents and human-in-the-loop systems. This work presents the first systematic study of confidence estimation in multi-turn interactions, establishing a formal evaluation framework grounded in two key desiderata: per-turn calibration and monotonicity of confidence as more information becomes available. To facilitate this, we introduce novel metrics, including a length-normalized Expected Calibration Error (InfoECE), and a new "Hinter-Guesser" paradigm for generating controlled evaluation datasets. Our experiments reveal that widely-used confidence techniques struggle with calibration and monotonicity in multi-turn dialogues. We propose P(Sufficient), a logit-based probe that achieves comparatively better performance, although the task remains far from solved. Our work provides a foundational methodology for developing more reliable and trustworthy conversational agents.

Empirical evaluation serves as the primary compass guiding research progress in foundation models. Despite a large body of work focused on training frontier vision-language models (VLMs), approaches to their evaluation remain nascent. To guide their maturation, we propose three desiderata that evaluations should satisfy: (1) faithfulness to the modality and application, (2) discriminability between models of varying quality, and (3) efficiency in compute. Through this lens, we identify critical failure modes that violate faithfulness and discriminability, misrepresenting model capabilities: (i) multiple-choice formats reward guessing, poorly reflect downstream use cases, and saturate early as models improve; (ii) blindly solvable questions, which can be answered without images, constitute up to 70% of some evaluations; and (iii) mislabeled or ambiguous samples compromise up to 42% of examples in certain datasets. Regarding efficiency, the computational burden of evaluating frontier models has become prohibitive: by some accounts, nearly 20% of development compute is devoted to evaluation alone. Rather than discarding existing benchmarks, we curate them via transformation and filtering to maximize fidelity and discriminability. We find that converting multiple-choice questions to generative tasks reveals sharp capability drops of up to 35%. In addition, filtering blindly solvable and mislabeled samples improves discriminative power while simultaneously reducing computational cost. We release DatBench-Full, a cleaned evaluation suite of 33 datasets spanning nine VLM capabilities, and DatBench, a discriminative subset that achieves 13x average speedup (up to 50x) while closely matching the discriminative power of the original datasets. Our work outlines a path toward evaluation practices that are both rigorous and sustainable as VLMs continue to scale.

We consider the problem of ranking n experts based on their performances on d tasks. We make a monotonicity assumption stating that for each pair of experts, one outperforms the other on all tasks. We consider the sequential setting where in each round, the learner has access to noisy evaluations of actively chosen pair of expert-task, given the information available up to the actual round. Given a confidence parameter delta in (0, 1), we provide strategies allowing to recover the correct ranking of experts and develop a bound on the total number of queries made by our algorithm that hold with probability at least 1 -- delta. We show that our strategy is adaptive to the complexity of the problem (our bounds are instance dependent), and develop matching lower bounds up to a poly-logarithmic factor. Finally, we adapt our strategy to the relaxed problem of best expert identification and provide numerical simulation consistent with our theoretical results.

Diffusion large language models promise parallel token generation, yet inference remains bottlenecked by deciding which masked tokens can be safely committed together. Fast-dLLM addressed this with KV caching and confidence-guided parallel decoding, but its decoding theory uses a homogeneous high-confidence assumption that effectively reduces each candidate set to its weakest selected token. We argue that this leaves speed on the table because real decoding steps exhibit heterogeneous confidence profiles. We propose Fast-dLLM++, a training-free extension that introduces Fréchet profile decoding: selecting parallel commit sets from the full sorted confidence profile rather than a single worst-case confidence. The resulting rule is a heterogeneous-confidence generalization of Fast-dLLM's factor selector and it recovers the previous rule exactly in the equal-confidence case and adds a provable heterogeneity bonus when the selected tokens have uneven confidences. Fast-dLLM++ leaves the model, diffusion process, and cache implementation entirely unchanged, making it a drop-in replacement for existing Fast-dLLM decoding. Experiments on GSM8K, MATH, HumanEval, and MBPP with the LLaDA-8B model show that the theoretical improvement translates directly into empirical gains: profile-aware selection improves the accuracy--throughput frontier by exploiting safe parallelism that weakest-token rules miss, achieving up to 37\% higher throughput at comparable accuracy. Our code release is at https://github.com/Ringo-Star/FastdLLM_plusplus.

The quality of many modern machine learning models improves as model complexity increases, an effect that has been quantified, for predictive performance, with the non-monotonic double descent learning curve. Here, we address the overarching question: is there an analogous theory of double descent for models which estimate uncertainty? We provide a partially affirmative and partially negative answer in the setting of Gaussian processes (GP). Under standard assumptions, we prove that higher model quality for optimally-tuned GPs (including uncertainty prediction) under marginal likelihood is realized for larger input dimensions, and therefore exhibits a monotone error curve. After showing that marginal likelihood does not naturally exhibit double descent in the input dimension, we highlight related forms of posterior predictive loss that do exhibit non-monotonicity. Finally, we verify empirically that our results hold for real data, beyond our considered assumptions, and we explore consequences involving synthetic covariates.

While prior research has proposed a plethora of methods that build neural classifiers robust against adversarial robustness, practitioners are still reluctant to adopt them due to their unacceptably severe clean accuracy penalties. This paper significantly alleviates this accuracy-robustness trade-off by mixing the output probabilities of a standard classifier and a robust classifier, where the standard network is optimized for clean accuracy and is not robust in general. We show that the robust base classifier's confidence difference for correct and incorrect examples is the key to this improvement. In addition to providing intuitions and empirical evidence, we theoretically certify the robustness of the mixed classifier under realistic assumptions. Furthermore, we adapt an adversarial input detector into a mixing network that adaptively adjusts the mixture of the two base models, further reducing the accuracy penalty of achieving robustness. The proposed flexible method, termed "adaptive smoothing", can work in conjunction with existing or even future methods that improve clean accuracy, robustness, or adversary detection. Our empirical evaluation considers strong attack methods, including AutoAttack and adaptive attack. On the CIFAR-100 dataset, our method achieves an 85.21% clean accuracy while maintaining a 38.72% ell_infty-AutoAttacked (epsilon = 8/255) accuracy, becoming the second most robust method on the RobustBench CIFAR-100 benchmark as of submission, while improving the clean accuracy by ten percentage points compared with all listed models. The code that implements our method is available at https://github.com/Bai-YT/AdaptiveSmoothing.

Scaling recommendation models into large recommendation models has become one of the most widely discussed topics. Recent efforts focus on components beyond the scaling embedding dimension, as it is believed that scaling embedding may lead to performance degradation. Although there have been some initial observations on embedding, the root cause of their non-scalability remains unclear. Moreover, whether performance degradation occurs across different types of models and datasets is still an unexplored area. Regarding the effect of embedding dimensions on performance, we conduct large-scale experiments across 10 datasets with varying sparsity levels and scales, using 4 representative classical architectures. We surprisingly observe two novel phenomenon: double-peak and logarithmic. For the former, as the embedding dimension increases, performance first improves, then declines, rises again, and eventually drops. For the latter, it exhibits a perfect logarithmic curve. Our contributions are threefold. First, we discover two novel phenomena when scaling collaborative filtering models. Second, we gain an understanding of the underlying causes of the double-peak phenomenon. Lastly, we theoretically analyze the noise robustness of collaborative filtering models, with results matching empirical observations.

Algorithms such as Differentially Private SGD enable training machine learning models with formal privacy guarantees. However, there is a discrepancy between the protection that such algorithms guarantee in theory and the protection they afford in practice. An emerging strand of work empirically estimates the protection afforded by differentially private training as a confidence interval for the privacy budget varepsilon spent on training a model. Existing approaches derive confidence intervals for varepsilon from confidence intervals for the false positive and false negative rates of membership inference attacks. Unfortunately, obtaining narrow high-confidence intervals for epsilon using this method requires an impractically large sample size and training as many models as samples. We propose a novel Bayesian method that greatly reduces sample size, and adapt and validate a heuristic to draw more than one sample per trained model. Our Bayesian method exploits the hypothesis testing interpretation of differential privacy to obtain a posterior for varepsilon (not just a confidence interval) from the joint posterior of the false positive and false negative rates of membership inference attacks. For the same sample size and confidence, we derive confidence intervals for varepsilon around 40% narrower than prior work. The heuristic, which we adapt from label-only DP, can be used to further reduce the number of trained models needed to get enough samples by up to 2 orders of magnitude.

Pruning deep neural networks is a widely used strategy to alleviate the computational burden in machine learning. Overwhelming empirical evidence suggests that pruned models retain very high accuracy even with a tiny fraction of parameters. However, relatively little work has gone into characterising the small pruned networks obtained, beyond a measure of their accuracy. In this paper, we use the sparse double descent approach to identify univocally and characterise pruned models associated with classification tasks. We observe empirically that, for a given task, iterative magnitude pruning (IMP) tends to converge to networks of comparable sizes even when starting from full networks with sizes ranging over orders of magnitude. We analyse the best pruned models in a controlled experimental setup and show that their number of parameters reflects task difficulty and that they are much better than full networks at capturing the true conditional probability distribution of the labels. On real data, we similarly observe that pruned models are less prone to overconfident predictions. Our results suggest that pruned models obtained via IMP not only have advantageous computational properties but also provide a better representation of uncertainty in learning.

Multimodal machine learning has achieved remarkable progress in a wide range of scenarios. However, the reliability of multimodal learning remains largely unexplored. In this paper, through extensive empirical studies, we identify current multimodal classification methods suffer from unreliable predictive confidence that tend to rely on partial modalities when estimating confidence. Specifically, we find that the confidence estimated by current models could even increase when some modalities are corrupted. To address the issue, we introduce an intuitive principle for multimodal learning, i.e., the confidence should not increase when one modality is removed. Accordingly, we propose a novel regularization technique, i.e., Calibrating Multimodal Learning (CML) regularization, to calibrate the predictive confidence of previous methods. This technique could be flexibly equipped by existing models and improve the performance in terms of confidence calibration, classification accuracy, and model robustness.

Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) has become the leading paradigm for enhancing reasoning in Large Language Models (LLMs). However, standard RLVR algorithms suffer from a well-documented pathology: while they improve Pass@1 accuracy through sharpened sampling, they simultaneously narrow the model's reasoning boundary and reduce generation diversity. We identify a root cause that existing methods overlook: the uniform penalization of errors. Current approaches -- whether data-filtering methods that select prompts by difficulty, or advantage normalization schemes -- treat all incorrect rollouts within a group identically. We show that this uniformity allows overconfident errors (incorrect reasoning paths that the RL process has spuriously reinforced) to persist and monopolize probability mass, ultimately suppressing valid exploratory trajectories. To address this, we propose the Asymmetric Confidence-aware Error Penalty (ACE). ACE introduces a per-rollout confidence shift metric, c_i = log(pi_theta(y_i|x) / pi_ref(y_i|x)), to dynamically modulate negative advantages. Theoretically, we demonstrate that ACE's gradient can be decomposed into the gradient of a selective regularizer restricted to overconfident errors, plus a well-characterized residual that partially moderates the regularizer's strength. We conduct extensive experiments fine-tuning Qwen2.5-Math-7B, Qwen3-8B-Base, and Llama-3.1-8B-Instruct on the DAPO-Math-17K dataset using GRPO and DAPO within the VERL framework. Evaluated on MATH-500 and AIME 2025, ACE composes seamlessly with existing methods and consistently improves the full Pass@k spectrum across all three model families and benchmarks.

We study fixed-confidence best-action identification (BAI) in stochastic minimax trees. This problem is increasingly relevant in modern AI planning, where deep minimax search and Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) with language model long rollouts face a fundamental tradeoff: heuristic evaluations are cheap but biased, while accurate rollouts are reliable but prohibitively expensive. We propose 2FFS, a two-fidelity tree-search algorithm that brings multi-fidelity flat bandit ideas into trees. The algorithm combines minimax-style fast expansion with MCTS-style stochastic sampling, adaptively deciding when to exploit cheap biased evaluations and when to invoke expensive accurate evaluations for local certification. We prove fixed-confidence correctness, establish finite stopping for exact identification, and give a polynomial-depth cost upper bound for general-depth trees. Across numerical stochastic-tree experiments, 2FFS uses substantially fewer samples and computational operations comparing to existing BAI-MCTS baseline.

In natural language processing, a recently popular line of work explores how to best report the experimental results of neural networks. One exemplar publication, titled "Show Your Work: Improved Reporting of Experimental Results," advocates for reporting the expected validation effectiveness of the best-tuned model, with respect to the computational budget. In the present work, we critically examine this paper. As far as statistical generalizability is concerned, we find unspoken pitfalls and caveats with this approach. We analytically show that their estimator is biased and uses error-prone assumptions. We find that the estimator favors negative errors and yields poor bootstrapped confidence intervals. We derive an unbiased alternative and bolster our claims with empirical evidence from statistical simulation. Our codebase is at http://github.com/castorini/meanmax.

This paper derives confidence intervals (CI) and time-uniform confidence sequences (CS) for the classical problem of estimating an unknown mean from bounded observations. We present a general approach for deriving concentration bounds, that can be seen as a generalization and improvement of the celebrated Chernoff method. At its heart, it is based on a class of composite nonnegative martingales, with strong connections to testing by betting and the method of mixtures. We show how to extend these ideas to sampling without replacement, another heavily studied problem. In all cases, our bounds are adaptive to the unknown variance, and empirically vastly outperform existing approaches based on Hoeffding or empirical Bernstein inequalities and their recent supermartingale generalizations. In short, we establish a new state-of-the-art for four fundamental problems: CSs and CIs for bounded means, when sampling with and without replacement.

Diffusion large language models (dLLMs) theoretically permit token decoding in arbitrary order, a flexibility that could enable richer exploration of reasoning paths than autoregressive (AR) LLMs. In practice, however, random-order decoding often hurts generation quality. To mitigate this, low-confidence remasking improves single-sample quality (e.g., Pass@1) by prioritizing confident tokens, but it also suppresses exploration and limits multi-sample gains (e.g., Pass@k), creating a fundamental quality--exploration dilemma. In this paper, we provide a unified explanation of this dilemma. We show that low-confidence remasking improves a myopic proxy for quality while provably constraining the entropy of the induced sequence distribution. To overcome this limitation, we characterize the optimal distribution that explicitly balances quality and exploration, and develop a simple Independent Metropolis--Hastings sampler that approximately targets this distribution during decoding. Experiments across a range of reasoning benchmarks including MATH500, AIME24/25, HumanEval, and MBPP show that our approach yields better exploration-quality tradeoff than both random and low-confidence remasking.

Masked language modeling is a widely used method for learning language representations, where the model predicts a randomly masked word in each input. However, this approach typically considers only a single correct answer during training, ignoring the variety of plausible alternatives that humans might choose. This issue becomes more pronounced when the input text is short, as the possible word distribution tends to have higher entropy, potentially causing the model to become overconfident in its predictions. To mitigate this, we propose a novel confidence regularizer that adaptively adjusts the regularization strength based on the input length. Experiments on the GLUE and SQuAD benchmarks show that our method improves both accuracy and expected calibration error

Feature matching is a challenging computer vision task that involves finding correspondences between two images of a 3D scene. In this paper we consider the dense approach instead of the more common sparse paradigm, thus striving to find all correspondences. Perhaps counter-intuitively, dense methods have previously shown inferior performance to their sparse and semi-sparse counterparts for estimation of two-view geometry. This changes with our novel dense method, which outperforms both dense and sparse methods on geometry estimation. The novelty is threefold: First, we propose a kernel regression global matcher. Secondly, we propose warp refinement through stacked feature maps and depthwise convolution kernels. Thirdly, we propose learning dense confidence through consistent depth and a balanced sampling approach for dense confidence maps. Through extensive experiments we confirm that our proposed dense method, Dense Kernelized Feature Matching, sets a new state-of-the-art on multiple geometry estimation benchmarks. In particular, we achieve an improvement on MegaDepth-1500 of +4.9 and +8.9 AUC@5^{circ} compared to the best previous sparse method and dense method respectively. Our code is provided at https://github.com/Parskatt/dkm

We derive a minimalist but powerful deterministic denoising-diffusion model. While denoising diffusion has shown great success in many domains, its underlying theory remains largely inaccessible to non-expert users. Indeed, an understanding of graduate-level concepts such as Langevin dynamics or score matching appears to be required to grasp how it works. We propose an alternative approach that requires no more than undergrad calculus and probability. We consider two densities and observe what happens when random samples from these densities are blended (linearly interpolated). We show that iteratively blending and deblending samples produces random paths between the two densities that converge toward a deterministic mapping. This mapping can be evaluated with a neural network trained to deblend samples. We obtain a model that behaves like deterministic denoising diffusion: it iteratively maps samples from one density (e.g., Gaussian noise) to another (e.g., cat images). However, compared to the state-of-the-art alternative, our model is simpler to derive, simpler to implement, more numerically stable, achieves higher quality results in our experiments, and has interesting connections to computer graphics.

We propose an approach to estimate the number of samples required for a model to reach a target performance. We find that the power law, the de facto principle to estimate model performance, leads to large error when using a small dataset (e.g., 5 samples per class) for extrapolation. This is because the log-performance error against the log-dataset size follows a nonlinear progression in the few-shot regime followed by a linear progression in the high-shot regime. We introduce a novel piecewise power law (PPL) that handles the two data regimes differently. To estimate the parameters of the PPL, we introduce a random forest regressor trained via meta learning that generalizes across classification/detection tasks, ResNet/ViT based architectures, and random/pre-trained initializations. The PPL improves the performance estimation on average by 37% across 16 classification and 33% across 10 detection datasets, compared to the power law. We further extend the PPL to provide a confidence bound and use it to limit the prediction horizon that reduces over-estimation of data by 76% on classification and 91% on detection datasets.

The use of deep neural networks in real-world applications require well-calibrated networks with confidence scores that accurately reflect the actual probability. However, it has been found that these networks often provide over-confident predictions, which leads to poor calibration. Recent efforts have sought to address this issue by focal loss to reduce over-confidence, but this approach can also lead to under-confident predictions. While different variants of focal loss have been explored, it is difficult to find a balance between over-confidence and under-confidence. In our work, we propose a new loss function by focusing on dual logits. Our method not only considers the ground truth logit, but also take into account the highest logit ranked after the ground truth logit. By maximizing the gap between these two logits, our proposed dual focal loss can achieve a better balance between over-confidence and under-confidence. We provide theoretical evidence to support our approach and demonstrate its effectiveness through evaluations on multiple models and datasets, where it achieves state-of-the-art performance. Code is available at https://github.com/Linwei94/DualFocalLoss

Existing Visual Speech Recognition (VSR) systems commonly rely on left-to-right autoregressive decoding, which can force premature decisions on visually ambiguous tokens before sufficient context is available. We propose DLLM-VSR, to the best of our knowledge, the first Diffusion Large Language Model (DLLM)-based VSR framework, formulating transcription as iterative masked denoising with flexible-order decoding. With confidence-based unmasking, DLLM-VSR commits high-confidence positions early and uses the committed tokens as bidirectional context to refine ambiguous ones. To adapt DLLMs to VSR, we introduce a two-stage masked-denoising training strategy that separates visual-to-text content alignment from length modeling. We further observe a performance gap with oracle-length decoding, which assumes access to the true transcript length, indicating that reducing target-length uncertainty can improve DLLM-based VSR. To reduce this gap, we develop length-guided candidate decoding, which uses video duration to construct plausible transcript-length hypotheses, decodes under multiple hypotheses, and reranks candidates using length plausibility and decoding confidence. The proposed method achieves a state-of-the-art WER of 19.5\% on LRS3 using only its labeled training data.

Diffusion-based large language models (dLLMs) are gaining attention for their inherent capacity for parallel decoding, offering a compelling alternative to autoregressive LLMs. Among various decoding strategies, blockwise semi-autoregressive (semi-AR) approaches are widely adopted due to their natural support for KV caching and their favorable accuracy-speed trade-off. However, this paper identifies two fundamental limitations in the conventional semi-AR decoding approach that applies a fixed block size: i) late decoding overhead, where the unmasking of high-confidence tokens outside the current block is unnecessarily delayed, and ii) premature decoding error, where low-confidence tokens inside the current block are committed too early, leading to incorrect tokens. This paper presents the first systematic investigation challenging the fixed block size assumption in semi-AR decoding. Through a statistical analysis of confidence dynamics during the denoising process, we identify a volatility band (VB) region during dLLM decoding, which encodes local semantic structure and can be used to guide adaptive block sizing. Leveraging these insights, we introduce AdaBlock-dLLM, a training-free, plug-and-play scheduler that adaptively aligns block boundaries with semantic steps by adjusting block size during runtime. Extensive experiments across diverse benchmarks show that AdaBlock-dLLM achieves up to 5.3% accuracy improvement under the same throughput budget. Beyond inference-time optimization, we hope our semantics-aware adaptive scheduling approach and confidence-based analysis will inspire future training strategies for dLLMs.

We introduce a new online adaptive filtering method called supervised multi-step adaptive filters (SMS-AF). Our method uses neural networks to control or optimize linear multi-delay or multi-channel frequency-domain filters and can flexibly scale-up performance at the cost of increased compute -- a property rarely addressed in the AF literature, but critical for many applications. To do so, we extend recent work with a set of improvements including feature pruning, a supervised loss, and multiple optimization steps per time-frame. These improvements work in a cohesive manner to unlock scaling. Furthermore, we show how our method relates to Kalman filtering and meta-adaptive filtering, making it seamlessly applicable to a diverse set of AF tasks. We evaluate our method on acoustic echo cancellation (AEC) and multi-channel speech enhancement tasks and compare against several baselines on standard synthetic and real-world datasets. Results show our method performance scales with inference cost and model capacity, yields multi-dB performance gains for both tasks, and is real-time capable on a single CPU core.

Overparametrization often helps improve the generalization performance. This paper proposes a dual view of overparametrization suggesting that downsampling may also help generalize. Motivated by this dual view, we characterize two out-of-sample prediction risks of the sketched ridgeless least square estimator in the proportional regime masymp n asymp p, where m is the sketching size, n the sample size, and p the feature dimensionality. Our results reveal the statistical role of downsampling. Specifically, downsampling does not always hurt the generalization performance, and may actually help improve it in some cases. We identify the optimal sketching sizes that minimize the out-of-sample prediction risks, and find that the optimally sketched estimator has stabler risk curves that eliminates the peaks of those for the full-sample estimator. We then propose a practical procedure to empirically identify the optimal sketching size. Finally, we extend our results to cover central limit theorems and misspecified models. Numerical studies strongly support our theory.

Diffusion language models decode text by iteratively denoising masked token sequences, making the choice of which positions to decode a central inference-time decision. Most training-free decoding strategies use model confidence for position selection, assuming that high-confidence positions are ready to be decoded. In this work, we revisit this assumption by studying when confidence misleads fully non-autoregressive (fully non-AR) decoding. EOT tokens can receive high confidence and cause incomplete generation; inserting a suffix anchor can mitigate this issue but introduces local overconfidence near the anchor, causing anchor-adjacent tokens to be decoded too early. To address these issues, we propose Suffix-Anchored Confidence Modulation, a simple training-free method that inserts a short suffix anchor to encourage response completion and modulates confidence near the anchor according to decoding progress. This preserves the response-completion benefit of suffix anchoring while reducing premature decoding of anchor-adjacent tokens. Across text-only reasoning, vision-language reasoning, and code-generation benchmarks, our method consistently improves confidence-based fully non-AR decoding, outperforms explicit EOT suppression, and preserves the parallel decoding advantage of fully non-AR generation.

In this work we present a new State-of-The-Art on the text-to-video retrieval task on MSR-VTT, LSMDC, MSVD, YouCook2 and TGIF obtained by a single model. Three different data sources are combined: weakly-supervised videos, crowd-labeled text-image pairs and text-video pairs. A careful analysis of available pre-trained networks helps to choose the best prior-knowledge ones. We introduce three-stage training procedure that provides high transfer knowledge efficiency and allows to use noisy datasets during training without prior knowledge degradation. Additionally, double positional encoding is used for better fusion of different modalities and a simple method for non-square inputs processing is suggested.

Energy efficiency of Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) has become an important area of research, with various strategies being developed to minimize the power consumption of these models. Previous efforts, including techniques like model pruning, quantization, and hardware optimization, have made significant strides in this direction. However, there remains a need for more effective on device AI solutions that balance energy efficiency with model performance. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to reduce the energy requirements of inference of CNNs. Our methodology employs two small Complementary CNNs that collaborate with each other by covering each other's "weaknesses" in predictions. If the confidence for a prediction of the first CNN is considered low, the second CNN is invoked with the aim of producing a higher confidence prediction. This dual-CNN setup significantly reduces energy consumption compared to using a single large deep CNN. Additionally, we propose a memory component that retains previous classifications for identical inputs, bypassing the need to re-invoke the CNNs for the same input, further saving energy. Our experiments on a Jetson Nano computer demonstrate an energy reduction of up to 85.8% achieved on modified datasets where each sample was duplicated once. These findings indicate that leveraging a complementary CNN pair along with a memory component effectively reduces inference energy while maintaining high accuracy.

Deep learning models are intrinsically sensitive to distribution shifts in the input data. In particular, small, barely perceivable perturbations to the input data can force models to make wrong predictions with high confidence. An common defense mechanism is regularization through adversarial training which injects worst-case perturbations back into training to strengthen the decision boundaries, and to reduce overfitting. In this context, we perform an investigation of 3x3 convolution filters that form in adversarially-trained models. Filters are extracted from 71 public models of the linf-RobustBench CIFAR-10/100 and ImageNet1k leaderboard and compared to filters extracted from models built on the same architectures but trained without robust regularization. We observe that adversarially-robust models appear to form more diverse, less sparse, and more orthogonal convolution filters than their normal counterparts. The largest differences between robust and normal models are found in the deepest layers, and the very first convolution layer, which consistently and predominantly forms filters that can partially eliminate perturbations, irrespective of the architecture. Data & Project website: https://github.com/paulgavrikov/cvpr22w_RobustnessThroughTheLens

FOLD-RM is an explainable machine learning classification algorithm that uses training data to create a set of classification rules. In this paper we introduce CON-FOLD which extends FOLD-RM in several ways. CON-FOLD assigns probability-based confidence scores to rules learned for a classification task. This allows users to know how confident they should be in a prediction made by the model. We present a confidence-based pruning algorithm that uses the unique structure of FOLD-RM rules to efficiently prune rules and prevent overfitting. Furthermore, CON-FOLD enables the user to provide pre-existing knowledge in the form of logic program rules that are either (fixed) background knowledge or (modifiable) initial rule candidates. The paper describes our method in detail and reports on practical experiments. We demonstrate the performance of the algorithm on benchmark datasets from the UCI Machine Learning Repository. For that, we introduce a new metric, Inverse Brier Score, to evaluate the accuracy of the produced confidence scores. Finally we apply this extension to a real world example that requires explainability: marking of student responses to a short answer question from the Australian Physics Olympiad.

Block-diffusion language models offer a promising path toward faster-than-autoregressive generation by combining block-wise autoregressive decoding with within-block parallel denoising. However, in the few-step regime needed for practical acceleration, standard confidence-thresholded decoding is often brittle: aggressive thresholds hurt quality, while conservative thresholds require unnecessary denoising steps. Existing approaches that address this issue either require additional training or incur extra test-time compute. We present S2D2, a training-free self-speculative decoding framework for block-diffusion language models. Our key observation is that a block-diffusion model becomes autoregressive when the block size is reduced to one, allowing the same pretrained model to act as both drafter and verifier. S2D2 inserts a speculative verification step into standard block-diffusion decoding and uses lightweight routing policies to decide when verification is worth its cost. This yields a hybrid decoding trajectory in which diffusion proposes tokens in parallel, while the autoregressive mode acts as a local sequence-level critic. Across three mainstream block-diffusion families, S2D2 consistently improves the accuracy-speed tradeoff over strong confidence-thresholding baselines. On SDAR, we observe up to 4.7times speedup over autoregressive decoding, and up to 1.57times over a tuned dynamic decoding baseline while improving accuracy by up to 4.5 points. On LLaDA2.1-Mini, S2D2 remains complementary to built-in self-correction, including a conservative setting where it is 4.4times faster than the static baseline with slightly higher accuracy.

Model evolution and constant availability of data are two common phenomena in large-scale real-world machine learning applications, e.g. ads and recommendation systems. To adapt, the real-world system typically retrain with all available data and online learn with recently available data to update the models periodically with the goal of better serving performance. In this paper, we propose a novel framework, named Confidence Ranking, which designs the optimization objective as a ranking function with two different models. Our confidence ranking loss allows direct optimization of the logits output for different convex surrogate functions of metrics, e.g. AUC and Accuracy depending on the target task and dataset. Armed with our proposed methods, our experiments show that the introduction of confidence ranking loss can outperform all baselines on the CTR prediction tasks of public and industrial datasets. This framework has been deployed in the advertisement system of JD.com to serve the main traffic in the fine-rank stage.

Diffusion-based video super-resolution (VSR) has recently achieved remarkable fidelity but still suffers from prohibitive sampling costs. While distribution matching distillation (DMD) can accelerate diffusion models toward one-step generation, directly applying it to VSR often results in training instability alongside degraded and insufficient supervision. To address these issues, we propose DUO-VSR, a three-stage framework built upon a Dual-Stream Distillation strategy that unifies distribution matching and adversarial supervision for one-step VSR. Firstly, a Progressive Guided Distillation Initialization is employed to stabilize subsequent training through trajectory-preserving distillation. Next, the Dual-Stream Distillation jointly optimizes the DMD and Real-Fake Score Feature GAN (RFS-GAN) streams, with the latter providing complementary adversarial supervision leveraging discriminative features from both real and fake score models. Finally, a Preference-Guided Refinement stage further aligns the student with perceptual quality preferences. Extensive experiments demonstrate that DUO-VSR achieves superior visual quality and efficiency over previous one-step VSR approaches.

Current approaches to reducing undesired capabilities in language models are largely post hoc, and can thus be easily bypassed by adversaries. A natural alternative is to shape capabilities during pretraining itself. On the proxy task of removing medical capabilities, we show that the simple intervention of filtering pretraining data is highly effective, robust, and inexpensive at scale. Inspired by work on data attribution, we show that filtering tokens is more effective than filtering documents, achieving the same hit to undesired capabilities at a lower cost to benign ones. Training models spanning two orders of magnitude, we then demonstrate that filtering gets more effective with scale: for our largest models, token filtering leads to a 7000x compute slowdown on the forget domain. We also show that models trained with token filtering can still be aligned on the forget domain. Along the way, we introduce a methodology for labeling tokens with sparse autoencoders and distilling cheap, high-quality classifiers. We also demonstrate that filtering can be robust to noisy labels with sufficient pretraining compute.

NLP models often rely on superficial cues known as dataset biases to achieve impressive performance, and can fail on examples where these biases do not hold. Recent work sought to develop robust, unbiased models by filtering biased examples from training sets. In this work, we argue that such filtering can obscure the true capabilities of models to overcome biases, which might never be removed in full from the dataset. We suggest that in order to drive the development of models robust to subtle biases, dataset biases should be amplified in the training set. We introduce an evaluation framework defined by a bias-amplified training set and an anti-biased test set, both automatically extracted from existing datasets. Experiments across three notions of bias, four datasets and two models show that our framework is substantially more challenging for models than the original data splits, and even more challenging than hand-crafted challenge sets. Our evaluation framework can use any existing dataset, even those considered obsolete, to test model robustness. We hope our work will guide the development of robust models that do not rely on superficial biases and correlations. To this end, we publicly release our code and data.

In an era where the volume of data drives the effectiveness of self-supervised learning, the specificity and clarity of data semantics play a crucial role in model training. Addressing this, we introduce HYPerbolic Entailment filtering (HYPE), a novel methodology designed to meticulously extract modality-wise meaningful and well-aligned data from extensive, noisy image-text pair datasets. Our approach leverages hyperbolic embeddings and the concept of entailment cones to evaluate and filter out samples with meaningless or underspecified semantics, focusing on enhancing the specificity of each data sample. HYPE not only demonstrates a significant improvement in filtering efficiency but also sets a new state-of-the-art in the DataComp benchmark when combined with existing filtering techniques. This breakthrough showcases the potential of HYPE to refine the data selection process, thereby contributing to the development of more accurate and efficient self-supervised learning models. Additionally, the image specificity epsilon_{i} can be independently applied to induce an image-only dataset from an image-text or image-only data pool for training image-only self-supervised models and showed superior performance when compared to the dataset induced by CLIP score.

The inference process for large language models is slow and memory-intensive, with one of the most critical bottlenecks being excessive Key-Value (KV) cache accesses. This paper introduces "Double Sparsity," a novel post-training sparse attention technique designed to alleviate this bottleneck by reducing KV cache access. Double Sparsity combines token sparsity, which focuses on utilizing only the important tokens for computing self-attention, with channel sparsity, an approach that uses important feature channels for identifying important tokens. Our key insight is that the pattern of channel sparsity is relatively static, allowing us to use offline calibration to make it efficient at runtime, thereby enabling accurate and efficient identification of important tokens. Moreover, this method can be combined with offloading to achieve significant memory usage reduction. Experimental results demonstrate that Double Sparsity can achieve 1{16} token and channel sparsity with minimal impact on accuracy across various tasks, including wiki-2 perplexity, key-value retrieval, and long context benchmarks with models including Llama-2-7B, Llama-2-70B, and Mixtral-8x7B. It brings up to a 14.1times acceleration in attention operations and a 1.9times improvement in end-to-end inference on GPUs. With offloading, it achieves a decoding speed acceleration of 16.3times compared to state-of-the-art solutions at a sequence length of 256K. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/andy-yang-1/DoubleSparse.

Autoregressive decoding in large language models (LLMs) requires O(n) sequential steps for n tokens, fundamentally limiting inference throughput. Recent diffusion-based LLMs (dLLMs) enable parallel token generation through iterative denoising. However, current parallel decoding strategies rely on fixed, input-agnostic heuristics (e.g., confidence thresholds), which fail to adapt to input-specific characteristics, resulting in suboptimal speed-quality trade-offs across diverse NLP tasks. In this work, we explore a more flexible and dynamic approach to parallel decoding. We propose Learning to Parallel Decode (Learn2PD), a framework that trains a lightweight and adaptive filter model to predict, for each token position, whether the current prediction matches the final output. This learned filter approximates an oracle parallel decoding strategy that unmasks tokens only when correctly predicted. Importantly, the filter model is learned in a post-training manner, requiring only a small amount of computation to optimize it (minute-level GPU time). Additionally, we introduce End-of-Text Prediction (EoTP) to detect decoding completion at the end of sequence, avoiding redundant decoding of padding tokens. Experiments on the LLaDA benchmark demonstrate that our method achieves up to 22.58times speedup without any performance drop, and up to 57.51times when combined with KV-Cache.

Test-time adaptation (TTA) methods, which generally rely on the model's predictions (e.g., entropy minimization) to adapt the source pretrained model to the unlabeled target domain, suffer from noisy signals originating from 1) incorrect or 2) open-set predictions. Long-term stable adaptation is hampered by such noisy signals, so training models without such error accumulation is crucial for practical TTA. To address these issues, including open-set TTA, we propose a simple yet effective sample selection method inspired by the following crucial empirical finding. While entropy minimization compels the model to increase the probability of its predicted label (i.e., confidence values), we found that noisy samples rather show decreased confidence values. To be more specific, entropy minimization attempts to raise the confidence values of an individual sample's prediction, but individual confidence values may rise or fall due to the influence of signals from numerous other predictions (i.e., wisdom of crowds). Due to this fact, noisy signals misaligned with such 'wisdom of crowds', generally found in the correct signals, fail to raise the individual confidence values of wrong samples, despite attempts to increase them. Based on such findings, we filter out the samples whose confidence values are lower in the adapted model than in the original model, as they are likely to be noisy. Our method is widely applicable to existing TTA methods and improves their long-term adaptation performance in both image classification (e.g., 49.4% reduced error rates with TENT) and semantic segmentation (e.g., 11.7% gain in mIoU with TENT).

Scene inference under low-light is a challenging problem due to severe noise in the captured images. One way to reduce noise is to use longer exposure during the capture. However, in the presence of motion (scene or camera motion), longer exposures lead to motion blur, resulting in loss of image information. This creates a trade-off between these two kinds of image degradations: motion blur (due to long exposure) vs. noise (due to short exposure), also referred as a dual image corruption pair in this paper. With the rise of cameras capable of capturing multiple exposures of the same scene simultaneously, it is possible to overcome this trade-off. Our key observation is that although the amount and nature of degradation varies for these different image captures, the semantic content remains the same across all images. To this end, we propose a method to leverage these multi exposure captures for robust inference under low-light and motion. Our method builds on a feature consistency loss to encourage similar results from these individual captures, and uses the ensemble of their final predictions for robust visual recognition. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach on simulated images as well as real captures with multiple exposures, and across the tasks of object detection and image classification.

Despite the remarkable success of deep neural networks in a myriad of settings, several works have demonstrated their overwhelming sensitivity to near-imperceptible perturbations, known as adversarial attacks. On the other hand, prior works have also observed that deep networks can be under-sensitive, wherein large-magnitude perturbations in input space do not induce appreciable changes to network activations. In this work, we study in detail the phenomenon of under-sensitivity in vision models such as CNNs and Transformers, and present techniques to study the geometry and extent of "equi-confidence" level sets of such networks. We propose a Level Set Traversal algorithm that iteratively explores regions of high confidence with respect to the input space using orthogonal components of the local gradients. Given a source image, we use this algorithm to identify inputs that lie in the same equi-confidence level set as the source image despite being perceptually similar to arbitrary images from other classes. We further observe that the source image is linearly connected by a high-confidence path to these inputs, uncovering a star-like structure for level sets of deep networks. Furthermore, we attempt to identify and estimate the extent of these connected higher-dimensional regions over which the model maintains a high degree of confidence. The code for this project is publicly available at https://github.com/SriramB-98/blindspots-neurips-sub

Recorrupted-to-Recorrupted (R2R) has emerged as a methodology for training deep networks for image restoration in a self-supervised manner from noisy measurement data alone, demonstrating equivalence in expectation to the supervised squared loss in the case of Gaussian noise. However, its effectiveness with non-Gaussian noise remains unexplored. In this paper, we propose Generalized R2R (GR2R), extending the R2R framework to handle a broader class of noise distribution as additive noise like log-Rayleigh and address the natural exponential family including Poisson and Gamma noise distributions, which play a key role in many applications including low-photon imaging and synthetic aperture radar. We show that the GR2R loss is an unbiased estimator of the supervised loss and that the popular Stein's unbiased risk estimator can be seen as a special case. A series of experiments with Gaussian, Poisson, and Gamma noise validate GR2R's performance, showing its effectiveness compared to other self-supervised methods.

Self-training is a well-known approach for semi-supervised learning. It consists of iteratively assigning pseudo-labels to unlabeled data for which the model is confident and treating them as labeled examples. For neural networks, softmax prediction probabilities are often used as a confidence measure, although they are known to be overconfident, even for wrong predictions. This phenomenon is particularly intensified in the presence of sample selection bias, i.e., when data labeling is subject to some constraint. To address this issue, we propose a novel confidence measure, called T-similarity, built upon the prediction diversity of an ensemble of linear classifiers. We provide the theoretical analysis of our approach by studying stationary points and describing the relationship between the diversity of the individual members and their performance. We empirically demonstrate the benefit of our confidence measure for three different pseudo-labeling policies on classification datasets of various data modalities. The code is available at https://github.com/ambroiseodt/tsim.

As neural networks become deeper, the redundancy within their parameters increases. This phenomenon has led to several methods that attempt to reduce the correlation between convolutional filters. We propose a computationally efficient regularization technique that encourages orthonormality between groups of filters within the same layer. Our experiments show that when incorporated into recent adaptation methods for diffusion models and vision transformers (ViTs), this regularization improves performance on downstream tasks. We further show improved robustness when group orthogonality is enforced during adversarial training. Our code is available at https://github.com/YoavKurtz/GOR.

An important challenge when using computer vision models in the real world is to evaluate their performance in potential out-of-distribution (OOD) scenarios. While simple synthetic corruptions are commonly applied to test OOD robustness, they often fail to capture nuisance shifts that occur in the real world. Recently, diffusion models have been applied to generate realistic images for benchmarking, but they are restricted to binary nuisance shifts. In this work, we introduce CNS-Bench, a Continuous Nuisance Shift Benchmark to quantify OOD robustness of image classifiers for continuous and realistic generative nuisance shifts. CNS-Bench allows generating a wide range of individual nuisance shifts in continuous severities by applying LoRA adapters to diffusion models. To address failure cases, we propose a filtering mechanism that outperforms previous methods, thereby enabling reliable benchmarking with generative models. With the proposed benchmark, we perform a large-scale study to evaluate the robustness of more than 40 classifiers under various nuisance shifts. Through carefully designed comparisons and analyses, we find that model rankings can change for varying shifts and shift scales, which cannot be captured when applying common binary shifts. Additionally, we show that evaluating the model performance on a continuous scale allows the identification of model failure points, providing a more nuanced understanding of model robustness. Project page including code and data: https://genintel.github.io/CNS.

Large reasoning models (LRMs) generate long reasoning traces before producing final answers. While these traces may contain useful signals for hallucination detection, harnessing them is non-trivial because long trajectories often include noisy steps that obscure the cues relevant to truthfulness assessment. In this paper, we identify two prevalent forms of reasoning noises, i.e., irrelevant steps and repetitive steps, and show that both substantially degrade hallucination detection performance. Existing confidence-based scores and naive embedding-based filtering fail to reliably separate noisy from informative steps. To address this challenge, we propose REDE, a novel learning framework for denoising reasoning traces for hallucination detection. Specifically, REDE leverages final-answer attention as an automatic supervision signal to shape the step-level representation space, yielding refined embeddings in which noisy steps can be reliably identified and filtered. REDE can be readily plugged into diverse hallucination detectors by operating on the filtered reasoning trajectory after removing noisy steps. Extensive experiments on multiple reasoning benchmarks show that REDE consistently improves detection performance over competitive baselines.

Increasing test-time computation is a straightforward approach to enhancing the quality of responses in Large Language Models (LLMs). While Best-of-N sampling and Self-Consistency with majority voting are simple and effective, they require a fixed number of sampling responses for each query, regardless of its complexity. This could result in wasted computation for simpler questions and insufficient exploration for more challenging ones. In this work, we argue that model confidence of responses can be used for improving the efficiency of test-time scaling. Unfortunately, LLMs are known to be overconfident and provide unreliable confidence estimation. To address this limitation, we introduce Self-Calibration by distilling Self-Consistency-derived confidence into the model itself. This enables reliable confidence estimation at test time with one forward pass. We then design confidence-based efficient test-time scaling methods to handle queries of various difficulty, such as Early-Stopping for Best-of-N and Self-Consistency with calibrated confidence. Experiments on three LLMs across six datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach. Specifically, applying confidence-based Early Stopping to Best-of-N improves MathQA accuracy from 81.0 to 83.6 with a sample budget of 16 responses, indicating the efficacy of confidence-based sampling strategy at inference time.

Vision-Language Models (VLMs) extend the capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) by incorporating visual information, yet they remain vulnerable to jailbreak attacks, especially when processing noisy or corrupted images. Although existing VLMs adopt security measures during training to mitigate such attacks, vulnerabilities associated with noise-augmented visual inputs are overlooked. In this work, we identify that missing noise-augmented training causes critical security gaps: many VLMs are susceptible to even simple perturbations such as Gaussian noise. To address this challenge, we propose Robust-VLGuard, a multimodal safety dataset with aligned / misaligned image-text pairs, combined with noise-augmented fine-tuning that reduces attack success rates while preserving functionality of VLM. For stronger optimization-based visual perturbation attacks, we propose DiffPure-VLM, leveraging diffusion models to convert adversarial perturbations into Gaussian-like noise, which can be defended by VLMs with noise-augmented safety fine-tuning. Experimental results demonstrate that the distribution-shifting property of diffusion model aligns well with our fine-tuned VLMs, significantly mitigating adversarial perturbations across varying intensities. The dataset and code are available at https://github.com/JarvisUSTC/DiffPure-RobustVLM.

This paper investigates the robustness of vision-language models against adversarial visual perturbations and introduces a novel ``double visual defense" to enhance this robustness. Unlike previous approaches that resort to lightweight adversarial fine-tuning of a pre-trained CLIP model, we perform large-scale adversarial vision-language pre-training from scratch using web-scale data. We then strengthen the defense by incorporating adversarial visual instruction tuning. The resulting models from each stage, DeltaCLIP and Delta^2LLaVA, show substantially enhanced zero-shot robustness and set a new state-of-the-art in adversarial defense for vision-language models. For example, the adversarial robustness of DeltaCLIP surpasses that of the previous best models on ImageNet-1k by ~20%. %For example, DeltaCLIP surpasses the previous best models on ImageNet-1k by ~20% in terms of adversarial robustness. Similarly, compared to prior art, Delta^2LLaVA brings a ~30% robustness improvement to image captioning task and a ~20% robustness improvement to visual question answering task. Furthermore, our models exhibit stronger zero-shot recognition capability, fewer hallucinations, and superior reasoning performance compared to baselines. Our project page is https://doublevisualdefense.github.io/.

Adversarial robustness often comes at the cost of degraded accuracy, impeding the real-life application of robust classification models. Training-based solutions for better trade-offs are limited by incompatibilities with already-trained high-performance large models, necessitating the exploration of training-free ensemble approaches. Observing that robust models are more confident in correct predictions than in incorrect ones on clean and adversarial data alike, we speculate amplifying this "benign confidence property" can reconcile accuracy and robustness in an ensemble setting. To achieve so, we propose "MixedNUTS", a training-free method where the output logits of a robust classifier and a standard non-robust classifier are processed by nonlinear transformations with only three parameters, which are optimized through an efficient algorithm. MixedNUTS then converts the transformed logits into probabilities and mixes them as the overall output. On CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100, and ImageNet datasets, experimental results with custom strong adaptive attacks demonstrate MixedNUTS's vastly improved accuracy and near-SOTA robustness -- it boosts CIFAR-100 clean accuracy by 7.86 points, sacrificing merely 0.87 points in robust accuracy.

In order to appropriately filter multi-modality data sets on a web-scale, it becomes crucial to employ suitable filtering methods to boost performance and reduce training costs. For instance, LAION papers employs the CLIP score filter to select data with CLIP scores surpassing a certain threshold. On the other hand, T-MARS achieves high-quality data filtering by detecting and masking text within images and then filtering by CLIP score. Through analyzing the dataset, we observe a significant proportion of redundant information, such as numbers, present in the textual content. Our experiments on a subset of the data unveil the profound impact of these redundant elements on the CLIP scores. A logical approach would involve reevaluating the CLIP scores after eliminating these influences. Experimentally, our text-based CLIP filter outperforms the top-ranked method on the ``small scale" of DataComp (a data filtering benchmark) on ImageNet distribution shifts, achieving a 3.6% performance improvement. The results also demonstrate that our proposed text-masked filter outperforms the original CLIP score filter when selecting the top 40% of the data. The impact of numbers on CLIP and their handling provide valuable insights for improving the effectiveness of CLIP training, including language rewrite techniques.

Inference-Time Scaling (ITS) has largely succeeded in verifiable domains like math and coding, where cheap verification enables scalable output selection. However, extending ITS to tasks prone to systematic failure - driven by faulty initial assumptions or unmet multidimensional constraints - typically relies on costly external solvers or brittle, model-based verifiers. Our key insight is that the intrinsic statistics of parallel sample sets, specifically length-adjusted tail entropy, provide a robust discriminative signal for solution quality without access to ground truth. Crucially, these statistics serve as a difficulty gate for adaptive compute allocation, dynamically routing problems across scaling regimes. First, Intrinsic Selection (iS) ranks candidates post-hoc, matching consensus-based algorithms across three domains and improving engineering design selection by 20% over pass@1 baselines. Second, Intrinsic Particle Filtering (iPF) generalizes this to step-level resampling, guiding generation toward high-confidence reasoning trajectories to improve pass@1 by 6.1 points on average on hard math problems. Finally, Particle Distillation (dPF) injects privileged guidance via early logit blending and KL-guided resampling, steering generation past systematic reasoning errors to satisfy expert rubrics, yielding up to 26.5% gains on complex clinical responses. Our pipeline applies seamlessly across broad-purpose, domain-specialized, and multimodal architectures, successfully extending ITS to open-ended domains without requiring trained reward models or exact ground-truth verification.

Conditioning image generation facilitates seamless editing and the creation of photorealistic images. However, conditioning on noisy or Out-of-Distribution (OoD) images poses significant challenges, particularly in balancing fidelity to the input and realism of the output. We introduce Confident Ordinary Differential Editing (CODE), a novel approach for image synthesis that effectively handles OoD guidance images. Utilizing a diffusion model as a generative prior, CODE enhances images through score-based updates along the probability-flow Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE) trajectory. This method requires no task-specific training, no handcrafted modules, and no assumptions regarding the corruptions affecting the conditioning image. Our method is compatible with any diffusion model. Positioned at the intersection of conditional image generation and blind image restoration, CODE operates in a fully blind manner, relying solely on a pre-trained generative model. Our method introduces an alternative approach to blind restoration: instead of targeting a specific ground truth image based on assumptions about the underlying corruption, CODE aims to increase the likelihood of the input image while maintaining fidelity. This results in the most probable in-distribution image around the input. Our contributions are twofold. First, CODE introduces a novel editing method based on ODE, providing enhanced control, realism, and fidelity compared to its SDE-based counterpart. Second, we introduce a confidence interval-based clipping method, which improves CODE's effectiveness by allowing it to disregard certain pixels or information, thus enhancing the restoration process in a blind manner. Experimental results demonstrate CODE's effectiveness over existing methods, particularly in scenarios involving severe degradation or OoD inputs.

Iterative self-training (self-distillation) repeatedly refits a model on pseudo-labels generated by its own predictions. We study this procedure in overparameterized linear regression: an initial estimator is trained on noisy labels, and each subsequent iterate is trained on fresh covariates with noiseless pseudo-labels from the previous model. In the high-dimensional regime, we derive deterministic-equivalent recursions for the prediction risk and effective noise across iterations, and prove that the empirical quantities concentrate sharply around these limits. The recursion separates two competing forces: a systematic component that grows with iteration due to progressive signal forgetting, and a stochastic component that decays due to denoising via repeated data-dependent projections. Their interaction yields a U-shaped test-risk curve and an optimal early-stopping time. In spiked covariance models, iteration further acts as an iteration-dependent spectral filter that preserves strong eigendirections while suppressing weaker ones, inducing an implicit form of soft feature selection distinct from ridge regression. Finally, we propose an iterated generalized cross-validation criterion and prove its uniform consistency for estimating the risk along the self-training trajectory, enabling fully data-driven selection of the stopping time and regularization. Experiments on synthetic covariances validate the theory and illustrate the predicted denoising-forgetting trade-off.

We analyze the convergence of (stochastic) gradient descent algorithm for learning a convolutional filter with Rectified Linear Unit (ReLU) activation function. Our analysis does not rely on any specific form of the input distribution and our proofs only use the definition of ReLU, in contrast with previous works that are restricted to standard Gaussian input. We show that (stochastic) gradient descent with random initialization can learn the convolutional filter in polynomial time and the convergence rate depends on the smoothness of the input distribution and the closeness of patches. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first recovery guarantee of gradient-based algorithms for convolutional filter on non-Gaussian input distributions. Our theory also justifies the two-stage learning rate strategy in deep neural networks. While our focus is theoretical, we also present experiments that illustrate our theoretical findings.

While large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable performance across diverse tasks, they fundamentally lack self-awareness and frequently exhibit overconfidence, assigning high confidence scores to incorrect predictions. Accurate confidence estimation is therefore critical for enhancing the trustworthiness and reliability of LLM-generated outputs. However, existing approaches suffer from coarse-grained scoring mechanisms that fail to provide fine-grained, continuous confidence estimates throughout the generation process. To address these limitations, we introduce FineCE, a novel confidence estimation method that delivers accurate, fine-grained confidence scores during text generation. Specifically, we first develop a comprehensive pipeline for constructing training data that effectively captures the underlying probabilistic distribution of LLM responses, and then train a model to predict confidence scores for arbitrary text sequences in a supervised manner. Furthermore, we propose a Backward Confidence Integration (BCI) strategy that leverages information from the subsequent text to enhance confidence estimation for the current sequence during inference. We also introduce three strategies for identifying optimal positions to perform confidence estimation within the generation process. Extensive experiments on multiple benchmark datasets demonstrate that FineCE consistently outperforms existing classical confidence estimation methods. Our code and all baselines used in the paper are available on GitHub.

Masked diffusion language models (MDLMs) promise fast, non-autoregressive text generation, yet existing samplers, which pick tokens to unmask based on model confidence, ignore interactions when unmasking multiple positions in parallel and effectively reduce to slow, autoregressive behavior. We propose the Dilated Unmasking Scheduler (DUS), an inference-only, planner-model-free method that partitions sequence positions into non-adjacent dilated groups and unmasked them in parallel so as to minimize an upper bound on joint entropy gain at each denoising step. By explicitly trading off the number of network calls against generation quality, DUS recovers most of the performance lost under traditional parallel unmasking strategies. Across math (GSM8K, MATH500), code (HumanEval, MBPP) and general-knowledge benchmarks (BBH, MMLU-Pro), DUS outperforms confidence-based planners, without modifying the underlying denoiser, and reveals the true speed-quality frontier of MDLMs.

Cascades are a classical strategy to enable inference cost to vary adaptively across samples, wherein a sequence of classifiers are invoked in turn. A deferral rule determines whether to invoke the next classifier in the sequence, or to terminate prediction. One simple deferral rule employs the confidence of the current classifier, e.g., based on the maximum predicted softmax probability. Despite being oblivious to the structure of the cascade -- e.g., not modelling the errors of downstream models -- such confidence-based deferral often works remarkably well in practice. In this paper, we seek to better understand the conditions under which confidence-based deferral may fail, and when alternate deferral strategies can perform better. We first present a theoretical characterisation of the optimal deferral rule, which precisely characterises settings under which confidence-based deferral may suffer. We then study post-hoc deferral mechanisms, and demonstrate they can significantly improve upon confidence-based deferral in settings where (i) downstream models are specialists that only work well on a subset of inputs, (ii) samples are subject to label noise, and (iii) there is distribution shift between the train and test set.

Diffusion Large Language Models (DLLMs) enable fully parallel token decoding but often remain impractical at inference time due to the many denoising iterations required to refine an information-free, fully masked initialization into coherent text. Most existing acceleration methods focus on traversing this generative trajectory more efficiently via improved solvers or sampling strategies. We advance a complementary perspective: shorten the trajectory itself by starting closer to the target distribution through context-aware initialization. We propose a training-free interface that injects prompt-conditioned priors from a lightweight auxiliary model into the diffusion initialization, and instantiate it with two mechanisms: discrete token injection and representation-level embedding interpolation. Because injected priors can be imperfect and unmask-only decoding can over-commit early, we also introduce a simple confidence-based remasking mechanism as a form of prior skepticism. Preliminary evidence on GSM8K suggests that context-aware initialization can substantially reduce denoising iterations (about 35\% fewer function evaluations in our setting), while also exposing a key open challenge: naive warm-starting can degrade final accuracy relative to strong diffusion baselines. We use these findings to motivate a research agenda around calibration, revision mechanisms, and representation alignment for reliable warm-started diffusion decoding.

In continual learning, many classifiers use softmax function to learn confidence. However, numerous studies have pointed out its inability to accurately determine confidence distributions for outliers, often referred to as epistemic uncertainty. This inherent limitation also curtails the accurate decisions for selecting what to forget and keep in previously trained confidence distributions over continual learning process. To address the issue, we revisit the effects of masking softmax function. While this method is both simple and prevalent in literature, its implication for retaining confidence distribution during continual learning, also known as stability, has been under-investigated. In this paper, we revisit the impact of softmax masking, and introduce a methodology to utilize its confidence preservation effects. In class- and task-incremental learning benchmarks with and without memory replay, our approach significantly increases stability while maintaining sufficiently large plasticity. In the end, our methodology shows better overall performance than state-of-the-art methods, particularly in the use with zero or small memory. This lays a simple and effective foundation of strongly stable replay-based continual learning.

Recently, there has been extensive research interest in training deep networks to denoise images without clean reference. However, the representative approaches such as Noise2Noise, Noise2Void, Stein's unbiased risk estimator (SURE), etc. seem to differ from one another and it is difficult to find the coherent mathematical structure. To address this, here we present a novel approach, called Noise2Score, which reveals a missing link in order to unite these seemingly different approaches. Specifically, we show that image denoising problems without clean images can be addressed by finding the mode of the posterior distribution and that the Tweedie's formula offers an explicit solution through the score function (i.e. the gradient of log likelihood). Our method then uses the recent finding that the score function can be stably estimated from the noisy images using the amortized residual denoising autoencoder, the method of which is closely related to Noise2Noise or Nose2Void. Our Noise2Score approach is so universal that the same network training can be used to remove noises from images that are corrupted by any exponential family distributions and noise parameters. Using extensive experiments with Gaussian, Poisson, and Gamma noises, we show that Noise2Score significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art self-supervised denoising methods in the benchmark data set such as (C)BSD68, Set12, and Kodak, etc.

While significant advances exist in pseudo-label generation for semi-supervised semantic segmentation, pseudo-label selection remains understudied. Existing methods typically use fixed confidence thresholds to retain high-confidence predictions as pseudo-labels. However, these methods cannot cope with network overconfidence tendency, where correct and incorrect predictions overlap significantly in high-confidence regions, making separation challenging and amplifying model cognitive bias. Meanwhile, the direct discarding of low-confidence predictions disrupts spatial-semantic continuity, causing critical context loss. We propose Confidence Separable Learning (CSL) to address these limitations. CSL formulates pseudo-label selection as a convex optimization problem within the confidence distribution feature space, establishing sample-specific decision boundaries to distinguish reliable from unreliable predictions. Additionally, CSL introduces random masking of reliable pixels to guide the network in learning contextual relationships from low-reliability regions, thereby mitigating the adverse effects of discarding uncertain predictions. Extensive experimental results on the Pascal, Cityscapes, and COCO benchmarks show that CSL performs favorably against state-of-the-art methods. Code and model weights are available at https://github.com/PanLiuCSU/CSL.

Neural Radiance Fields (NeRF) exhibit remarkable performance for Novel View Synthesis (NVS) given a set of 2D images. However, NeRF training requires accurate camera pose for each input view, typically obtained by Structure-from-Motion (SfM) pipelines. Recent works have attempted to relax this constraint, but they still often rely on decent initial poses which they can refine. Here we aim at removing the requirement for pose initialization. We present Incremental CONfidence (ICON), an optimization procedure for training NeRFs from 2D video frames. ICON only assumes smooth camera motion to estimate initial guess for poses. Further, ICON introduces ``confidence": an adaptive measure of model quality used to dynamically reweight gradients. ICON relies on high-confidence poses to learn NeRF, and high-confidence 3D structure (as encoded by NeRF) to learn poses. We show that ICON, without prior pose initialization, achieves superior performance in both CO3D and HO3D versus methods which use SfM pose.

Combining the strengths of many existing predictors to obtain a Mixture of Experts which is superior to its individual components is an effective way to improve the performance without having to develop new architectures or train a model from scratch. However, surprisingly, we find that naïvely combining expert object detectors in a similar way to Deep Ensembles, can often lead to degraded performance. We identify that the primary cause of this issue is that the predictions of the experts do not match their performance, a term referred to as miscalibration. Consequently, the most confident detector dominates the final predictions, preventing the mixture from leveraging all the predictions from the experts appropriately. To address this, when constructing the Mixture of Experts, we propose to combine their predictions in a manner which reflects the individual performance of the experts; an objective we achieve by first calibrating the predictions before filtering and refining them. We term this approach the Mixture of Calibrated Experts and demonstrate its effectiveness through extensive experiments on 5 different detection tasks using a variety of detectors, showing that it: (i) improves object detectors on COCO and instance segmentation methods on LVIS by up to sim 2.5 AP; (ii) reaches state-of-the-art on COCO test-dev with 65.1 AP and on DOTA with 82.62 AP_{50}; (iii) outperforms single models consistently on recent detection tasks such as Open Vocabulary Object Detection.

Real-world machine learning deployments are characterized by mismatches between the source (training) and target (test) distributions that may cause performance drops. In this work, we investigate methods for predicting the target domain accuracy using only labeled source data and unlabeled target data. We propose Average Thresholded Confidence (ATC), a practical method that learns a threshold on the model's confidence, predicting accuracy as the fraction of unlabeled examples for which model confidence exceeds that threshold. ATC outperforms previous methods across several model architectures, types of distribution shifts (e.g., due to synthetic corruptions, dataset reproduction, or novel subpopulations), and datasets (Wilds, ImageNet, Breeds, CIFAR, and MNIST). In our experiments, ATC estimates target performance 2-4times more accurately than prior methods. We also explore the theoretical foundations of the problem, proving that, in general, identifying the accuracy is just as hard as identifying the optimal predictor and thus, the efficacy of any method rests upon (perhaps unstated) assumptions on the nature of the shift. Finally, analyzing our method on some toy distributions, we provide insights concerning when it works. Code is available at https://github.com/saurabhgarg1996/ATC_code/.

Recent advances in machine learning have significantly improved prediction accuracy in various applications. However, ensuring the calibration of probabilistic predictions remains a significant challenge. Despite efforts to enhance model calibration, the rigorous statistical evaluation of model calibration remains less explored. In this work, we develop confidence intervals the ell_2 Expected Calibration Error (ECE). We consider top-1-to-k calibration, which includes both the popular notion of confidence calibration as well as full calibration. For a debiased estimator of the ECE, we show asymptotic normality, but with different convergence rates and asymptotic variances for calibrated and miscalibrated models. We develop methods to construct asymptotically valid confidence intervals for the ECE, accounting for this behavior as well as non-negativity. Our theoretical findings are supported through extensive experiments, showing that our methods produce valid confidence intervals with shorter lengths compared to those obtained by resampling-based methods.

We consider the problem of learning a target function corresponding to a single hidden layer neural network, with a quadratic activation function after the first layer, and random weights. We consider the asymptotic limit where the input dimension and the network width are proportionally large. Recent work [Cui & al '23] established that linear regression provides Bayes-optimal test error to learn such a function when the number of available samples is only linear in the dimension. That work stressed the open challenge of theoretically analyzing the optimal test error in the more interesting regime where the number of samples is quadratic in the dimension. In this paper, we solve this challenge for quadratic activations and derive a closed-form expression for the Bayes-optimal test error. We also provide an algorithm, that we call GAMP-RIE, which combines approximate message passing with rotationally invariant matrix denoising, and that asymptotically achieves the optimal performance. Technically, our result is enabled by establishing a link with recent works on optimal denoising of extensive-rank matrices and on the ellipsoid fitting problem. We further show empirically that, in the absence of noise, randomly-initialized gradient descent seems to sample the space of weights, leading to zero training loss, and averaging over initialization leads to a test error equal to the Bayes-optimal one.

We propose algorithms for approximate filtering and smoothing in high-dimensional Factorial hidden Markov models. The approximation involves discarding, in a principled way, likelihood factors according to a notion of locality in a factor graph associated with the emission distribution. This allows the exponential-in-dimension cost of exact filtering and smoothing to be avoided. We prove that the approximation accuracy, measured in a local total variation norm, is "dimension-free" in the sense that as the overall dimension of the model increases the error bounds we derive do not necessarily degrade. A key step in the analysis is to quantify the error introduced by localizing the likelihood function in a Bayes' rule update. The factorial structure of the likelihood function which we exploit arises naturally when data have known spatial or network structure. We demonstrate the new algorithms on synthetic examples and a London Underground passenger flow problem, where the factor graph is effectively given by the train network.

Test-time scaling often uses an external verifier, such as compilers and test cases in coding or trained value functions in robotics applications, to obtain high-quality rollouts. Verifier-free test-time scaling (or VF-TTS) is gaining extensive attention as a mechanism to enhance Large Language Model (LLM) reasoning, primarily because we do not have access to such high-quality verifiers in many real-world applications. Among existing VF-TTS methods, confidence-based VF-TTS methods, which compute and rank rollouts solely by confidence, are particularly promising. Such methods introduce near-zero overhead for sample evaluation and require minimal access to internal model states, making the methods highly flexible across models and tasks. In this paper, we demonstrate a critical limitation of existing confidence-based VF-TTS methods by showing that such methods catastrophically break down on complex tasks. We observe a very interesting phenomenon: uniformly high confidence frequently indicates a failure to explore, favoring confidently wrong answers. To address this, our core insight is that robust cognitive search requires a specific confidence trajectory pattern: such methods perform exploratory branching at the beginning, as manifested by low initial confidence, and converge to a high final confidence solution. To implement this insight, we introduce consilience, a novel selection framework that explicitly evaluates the temporal asymmetry of confidence in reasoning. We operationalize this via a combinatorial metric that actively penalizes high initial confidence while strictly demanding final certainty. Extensive experiments covering both graduate-level mathematics problems and free-form code generation demonstrate that consilience effectively outperforms existing baselines, validating our novel perspective on completion confidence.

We introduce Filter Like You Test (FLYT), a method for curating large-scale vision-language datasets that learns the usefulness of each data point as a pretraining example. FLYT trains a scoring model that learns to weigh each example using gradient signals from downstream tasks training sets. Using the same training methodology, we develop Mixing-FLYT (M-FLYT), which takes the per-example scores generated by different scoring methods and learns to unify them into a single score. Our training methodology naturally produces a distribution over the training examples, which we leverage through Soft Cap Sampling (SCS), a strategy for obtaining a filtered pretraining dataset from per-example probabilities that samples examples while preventing over-representation through a repetition penalty. Using all three methods, we achieve 40.1% ImageNet zero-shot accuracy on the DataComp medium scale filtering benchmark, a 1.9% absolute accuracy increase over all previous results and a 5.5% increase over results that -- like us -- use only public resources.

The ability to judge whether a caption correctly describes an image is a critical part of vision-language understanding. However, state-of-the-art models often misinterpret the correctness of fine-grained details, leading to errors in outputs such as hallucinating objects in generated captions or poor compositional reasoning. In this work, we explore Token-Level Confidence, or TLC, as a simple yet surprisingly effective method to assess caption correctness. Specifically, we fine-tune a vision-language model on image captioning, input an image and proposed caption to the model, and aggregate either algebraic or learned token confidences over words or sequences to estimate image-caption consistency. Compared to sequence-level scores from pretrained models, TLC with algebraic confidence measures achieves a relative improvement in accuracy by 10% on verb understanding in SVO-Probes and outperforms prior state-of-the-art in image and group scores for compositional reasoning in Winoground by a relative 37% and 9%, respectively. When training data are available, a learned confidence estimator provides further improved performance, reducing object hallucination rates in MS COCO Captions by a relative 30% over the original model and setting a new state-of-the-art.

Audio-Text Foundation Models (ATMs) fail catastrophically under severe acoustic noise, yet existing adaptation strategies either rely on gradient-based Test-Time Adaptation (TTA), which reinforces noise rather than signal, or on prompt tuning that requires privileged noise annotations unavailable at inference. We address these failures with PRISM (Prototype-Rectified Iterative Self-supervised Manifold Denoising), a training-free, source-free TTA framework grounded in the Affine Noise Hypothesis: severe acoustic noise induces a low-rank affine shift in the multimodal latent space, with more than 90% of distortion energy confined to the leading 60 principal components. PRISM estimates and reverses this distortion from an unlabeled target batch using frozen text prototypes as geometric anchors via three closed-form geometric corrections compiled into a single static projection matrix by Affine Bias Regression. At inference, adaptation reduces to one matrix-vector multiplication in 0.0009 ms, making it substantially faster than gradient-based TTA while requiring no additional training. On UrbanSound8K, PRISM improves over the zero-shot baseline by 12.94 percentage points and surpasses an oracle-assisted TTA baseline by 9.41 percentage points, despite never observing its privileged augmented noise prompts. We further identify the Polyphonic Trap, a principled failure mode of subspace deflation for broadband classes, and resolve it via Confidence-Aware Regression (CAR), recovering up to 8.16 percentage points for the worst-affected class.

Recently, multi-expert methods have led to significant improvements in long-tail recognition (LTR). We summarize two aspects that need further enhancement to contribute to LTR boosting: (1) More diverse experts; (2) Lower model variance. However, the previous methods didn't handle them well. To this end, we propose More Diverse experts with Consistency Self-distillation (MDCS) to bridge the gap left by earlier methods. Our MDCS approach consists of two core components: Diversity Loss (DL) and Consistency Self-distillation (CS). In detail, DL promotes diversity among experts by controlling their focus on different categories. To reduce the model variance, we employ KL divergence to distill the richer knowledge of weakly augmented instances for the experts' self-distillation. In particular, we design Confident Instance Sampling (CIS) to select the correctly classified instances for CS to avoid biased/noisy knowledge. In the analysis and ablation study, we demonstrate that our method compared with previous work can effectively increase the diversity of experts, significantly reduce the variance of the model, and improve recognition accuracy. Moreover, the roles of our DL and CS are mutually reinforcing and coupled: the diversity of experts benefits from the CS, and the CS cannot achieve remarkable results without the DL. Experiments show our MDCS outperforms the state-of-the-art by 1% sim 2% on five popular long-tailed benchmarks, including CIFAR10-LT, CIFAR100-LT, ImageNet-LT, Places-LT, and iNaturalist 2018. The code is available at https://github.com/fistyee/MDCS.

Diffusion frameworks have achieved comparable performance with previous state-of-the-art image generation models. Researchers are curious about its variants in discriminative tasks because of its powerful noise-to-image denoising pipeline. This paper proposes DiffusionInst, a novel framework that represents instances as instance-aware filters and formulates instance segmentation as a noise-to-filter denoising process. The model is trained to reverse the noisy groundtruth without any inductive bias from RPN. During inference, it takes a randomly generated filter as input and outputs mask in one-step or multi-step denoising. Extensive experimental results on COCO and LVIS show that DiffusionInst achieves competitive performance compared to existing instance segmentation models with various backbones, such as ResNet and Swin Transformers. We hope our work could serve as a strong baseline, which could inspire designing more efficient diffusion frameworks for challenging discriminative tasks. Our code is available in https://github.com/chenhaoxing/DiffusionInst.

Temporal Difference (TD) algorithms are widely used in Deep Reinforcement Learning (RL). Their performance is heavily influenced by the size of the neural network. While in supervised learning, the regime of over-parameterization and its benefits are well understood, the situation in RL is much less clear. In this paper, we present a theoretical analysis of the influence of network size and l_2-regularization on performance. We identify the ratio between the number of parameters and the number of visited states as a crucial factor and define over-parameterization as the regime when it is larger than one. Furthermore, we observe a double descent phenomenon, i.e., a sudden drop in performance around the parameter/state ratio of one. Leveraging random features and the lazy training regime, we study the regularized Least-Square Temporal Difference (LSTD) algorithm in an asymptotic regime, as both the number of parameters and states go to infinity, maintaining a constant ratio. We derive deterministic limits of both the empirical and the true Mean-Squared Bellman Error (MSBE) that feature correction terms responsible for the double descent. Correction terms vanish when the l_2-regularization is increased or the number of unvisited states goes to zero. Numerical experiments with synthetic and small real-world environments closely match the theoretical predictions.

Multi-frame algorithms for single-channel speech enhancement are able to take advantage from short-time correlations within the speech signal. Deep filtering (DF) recently demonstrated its capabilities for low-latency scenarios like hearing aids with its complex multi-frame (MF) filter. Alternatively, the complex filter can be estimated via an MF minimum variance distortionless response (MVDR), or MF Wiener filter (WF). Previous studies have shown that incorporating algorithm domain knowledge using an MVDR filter might be beneficial compared to the direct filter estimation via DF. In this work, we compare the usage of various multi-frame filters such as DF, MF-MVDR, or MF-WF for HAs. We assess different covariance estimation methods for both MF-MVDR and MF-WF and objectively demonstrate an improved performance compared to direct DF estimation, significantly outperforming related work while improving the runtime performance.

Image denoising is a critical component in a camera's Image Signal Processing (ISP) pipeline. There are two typical ways to inject a denoiser into the ISP pipeline: applying a denoiser directly to captured raw frames (raw domain) or to the ISP's output sRGB images (sRGB domain). However, both approaches have their limitations. Residual noise from raw-domain denoising can be amplified by the subsequent ISP processing, and the sRGB domain struggles to handle spatially varying noise since it only sees noise distorted by the ISP. Consequently, most raw or sRGB domain denoising works only for specific noise distributions and ISP configurations. To address these challenges, we propose DualDn, a novel learning-based dual-domain denoising. Unlike previous single-domain denoising, DualDn consists of two denoising networks: one in the raw domain and one in the sRGB domain. The raw domain denoising adapts to sensor-specific noise as well as spatially varying noise levels, while the sRGB domain denoising adapts to ISP variations and removes residual noise amplified by the ISP. Both denoising networks are connected with a differentiable ISP, which is trained end-to-end and discarded during the inference stage. With this design, DualDn achieves greater generalizability compared to most learning-based denoising methods, as it can adapt to different unseen noises, ISP parameters, and even novel ISP pipelines. Experiments show that DualDn achieves state-of-the-art performance and can adapt to different denoising architectures. Moreover, DualDn can be used as a plug-and-play denoising module with real cameras without retraining, and still demonstrate better performance than commercial on-camera denoising. The project website is available at: https://openimaginglab.github.io/DualDn/

Recent work in open-domain question answering (ODQA) has shown that adversarial poisoning of the input contexts can cause large drops in accuracy for production systems. However, little to no work has proposed methods to defend against these attacks. To do so, we introduce a new method that uses query augmentation to search for a diverse set of retrieved passages that could answer the original question. We integrate these new passages into the model through the design of a novel confidence method, comparing the predicted answer to its appearance in the retrieved contexts (what we call Confidence from Answer Redundancy, e.g. CAR). Together these methods allow for a simple but effective way to defend against poisoning attacks and provide gains of 5-20% exact match across varying levels of data poisoning.

The rapid growth of online video platforms and AI-generated content has made reliable video guardrails a key challenge for safety and real-world deployment. While most videos can be screened through fast pattern recognition, a small subset requires deeper reasoning over temporally complex content and nuanced policy constraints. Existing approaches typically rely on large vision-language models applied uniformly across all inputs, resulting in high inference costs and inefficient allocation of computation. We propose SafeLens, a video guardrail framework that introduces a fast-and-slow inference architecture for efficient and accurate content moderation with variable computational cost across inputs. Additionally, we construct a high-quality dataset by applying influence-guided filtering to the SafeWatch Dataset, retaining only 2.4% of the original data. To further address limitations of training-time scaling, we enable test-time reasoning by augmenting the filtered data with structured Chain-of-Thought traces. Across real-world and AI-generated video benchmarks, SafeLens achieves state-of-the-art performance, outperforming strong open-source video guardrails (e.g., SafeWatch-8B, OmniGuard-7B) and closed-source models (e.g., GPT-5.4, Gemini-3.1-pro) while significantly reducing inference cost, demonstrating that efficient design serves to be more effective than scaling data or model size alone.

Robustness is essential for deep neural networks, especially in security-sensitive applications. To this end, randomized smoothing provides theoretical guarantees for certifying robustness against adversarial perturbations. Recently, diffusion models have been successfully employed for randomized smoothing to purify noise-perturbed samples before making predictions with a standard classifier. While these methods excel at small perturbation radii, they struggle with larger perturbations and incur a significant computational overhead during inference compared to classical methods. To address this, we reformulate the generative modeling task along the diffusion trajectories in pixel space as a discriminative task in the latent space. Specifically, we use instance discrimination to achieve consistent representations along the trajectories by aligning temporally adjacent points. After fine-tuning based on the learned representations, our model enables implicit denoising-then-classification via a single prediction, substantially reducing inference costs. We conduct extensive experiments on various datasets and achieve state-of-the-art performance with minimal computation budget during inference. For example, our method outperforms the certified accuracy of diffusion-based methods on ImageNet across all perturbation radii by 5.3% on average, with up to 11.6% at larger radii, while reducing inference costs by 85times on average. Codes are available at: https://github.com/jiachenlei/rRCM.

Detection Transformers (DETR) have recently set new benchmarks in object detection. However, their performance in detecting rotated objects lags behind established oriented object detectors. Our analysis identifies a key observation: the boundary discontinuity and square-like problem in bipartite matching poses an issue with assigning appropriate ground truths to predictions, leading to duplicate low-confidence predictions. To address this, we introduce a Hausdorff distance-based cost for bipartite matching, which more accurately quantifies the discrepancy between predictions and ground truths. Additionally, we find that a static denoising approach impedes the training of rotated DETR, especially as the quality of the detector's predictions begins to exceed that of the noised ground truths. To overcome this, we propose an adaptive query denoising method that employs bipartite matching to selectively eliminate noised queries that detract from model improvement. When compared to models adopting a ResNet-50 backbone, our proposed model yields remarkable improvements, achieving +4.18 AP_{50}, +4.59 AP_{50}, and +4.99 AP_{50} on DOTA-v2.0, DOTA-v1.5, and DIOR-R, respectively.

Correct labels are indispensable for training effective machine learning models. However, creating high-quality labels is expensive, and even professionally labeled data contains errors and ambiguities. Filtering and denoising can be applied to curate labeled data prior to training, at the cost of additional processing and loss of information. An alternative is on-the-fly sample reweighting during the training process to decrease the negative impact of incorrect or ambiguous labels, but this typically requires clean seed data. In this work we propose unsupervised on-the-fly meta loss rescaling to reweight training samples. Crucially, we rely only on features provided by the model being trained, to learn a rescaling function in real time without knowledge of the true clean data distribution. We achieve this via a novel meta learning setup that samples validation data for the meta update directly from the noisy training corpus by employing the rescaling function being trained. Our proposed method consistently improves performance across various NLP tasks with minimal computational overhead. Further, we are among the first to attempt on-the-fly training data reweighting on the challenging task of dialogue modeling, where noisy and ambiguous labels are common. Our strategy is robust in the face of noisy and clean data, handles class imbalance, and prevents overfitting to noisy labels. Our self-taught loss rescaling improves as the model trains, showing the ability to keep learning from the model's own signals. As training progresses, the impact of correctly labeled data is scaled up, while the impact of wrongly labeled data is suppressed.

Large-scale vision foundation models such as DINOv2 boast impressive performances by leveraging massive architectures and training datasets. But numerous scenarios require practitioners to reproduce those pre-training solutions, such as on private data, new modalities, or simply for scientific questioning--which is currently extremely demanding computation-wise. We thus propose a novel pre-training strategy for DINOv2 that simultaneously accelerates convergence--and strengthens robustness to common corruptions as a by-product. Our approach involves a frequency filtering curriculum--low-frequency being seen first--and the Gaussian noise patching augmentation. Applied to a ViT-B/16 backbone trained on ImageNet-1K, while pre-training time and FLOPs are reduced by 1.6x and 2.25x, our method still achieves matching robustness in corruption benchmarks (ImageNet-C) and maintains competitive linear probing performance compared with baseline. This dual benefit of efficiency and robustness makes large-scale self-supervised foundation modeling more attainable, while opening the door to novel exploration around data curriculum and augmentation as means to improve self-supervised learning models robustness. The code is available at https://github.com/KevinZ0217/fast_dinov2

The regression of 3D Human Pose and Shape (HPS) from an image is becoming increasingly accurate. This makes the results useful for downstream tasks like human action recognition or 3D graphics. Yet, no regressor is perfect, and accuracy can be affected by ambiguous image evidence or by poses and appearance that are unseen during training. Most current HPS regressors, however, do not report the confidence of their outputs, meaning that downstream tasks cannot differentiate accurate estimates from inaccurate ones. To address this, we develop POCO, a novel framework for training HPS regressors to estimate not only a 3D human body, but also their confidence, in a single feed-forward pass. Specifically, POCO estimates both the 3D body pose and a per-sample variance. The key idea is to introduce a Dual Conditioning Strategy (DCS) for regressing uncertainty that is highly correlated to pose reconstruction quality. The POCO framework can be applied to any HPS regressor and here we evaluate it by modifying HMR, PARE, and CLIFF. In all cases, training the network to reason about uncertainty helps it learn to more accurately estimate 3D pose. While this was not our goal, the improvement is modest but consistent. Our main motivation is to provide uncertainty estimates for downstream tasks; we demonstrate this in two ways: (1) We use the confidence estimates to bootstrap HPS training. Given unlabelled image data, we take the confident estimates of a POCO-trained regressor as pseudo ground truth. Retraining with this automatically-curated data improves accuracy. (2) We exploit uncertainty in video pose estimation by automatically identifying uncertain frames (e.g. due to occlusion) and inpainting these from confident frames. Code and models will be available for research at https://poco.is.tue.mpg.de.

Model attribution is a popular tool to explain the rationales behind model predictions. However, recent work suggests that the attributions are vulnerable to minute perturbations, which can be added to input samples to fool the attributions while maintaining the prediction outputs. Although empirical studies have shown positive performance via adversarial training, an effective certified defense method is eminently needed to understand the robustness of attributions. In this work, we propose to use uniform smoothing technique that augments the vanilla attributions by noises uniformly sampled from a certain space. It is proved that, for all perturbations within the attack region, the cosine similarity between uniformly smoothed attribution of perturbed sample and the unperturbed sample is guaranteed to be lower bounded. We also derive alternative formulations of the certification that is equivalent to the original one and provides the maximum size of perturbation or the minimum smoothing radius such that the attribution can not be perturbed. We evaluate the proposed method on three datasets and show that the proposed method can effectively protect the attributions from attacks, regardless of the architecture of networks, training schemes and the size of the datasets.

Despite the remarkable progress of deep neural networks (DNNs) in various visual tasks, their vulnerability to adversarial examples raises significant security concerns. Recent adversarial training methods leverage inverse adversarial attacks to generate high-confidence examples, aiming to align adversarial distributions with high-confidence class regions. However, our investigation reveals that under inverse adversarial attacks, high-confidence outputs are influenced by biased feature activations, causing models to rely on background features that lack a causal relationship with the labels. This spurious correlation bias leads to overfitting irrelevant background features during adversarial training, thereby degrading the model's robust performance and generalization capabilities. To address this issue, we propose Debiased High-Confidence Adversarial Training (DHAT), a novel approach that aligns adversarial logits with debiased high-confidence logits and restores proper attention by enhancing foreground logit orthogonality. Extensive experiments demonstrate that DHAT achieves state-of-the-art robustness on both CIFAR and ImageNet-1K benchmarks, while significantly improving generalization by mitigating the feature bias inherent in inverse adversarial training approaches. Code is available at https://github.com/KejiaZhang-Robust/DHAT.

Semi-supervised learning is attracting blooming attention, due to its success in combining unlabeled data. To mitigate potentially incorrect pseudo labels, recent frameworks mostly set a fixed confidence threshold to discard uncertain samples. This practice ensures high-quality pseudo labels, but incurs a relatively low utilization of the whole unlabeled set. In this work, our key insight is that these uncertain samples can be turned into certain ones, as long as the confusion classes for the top-1 class are detected and removed. Invoked by this, we propose a novel method dubbed ShrinkMatch to learn uncertain samples. For each uncertain sample, it adaptively seeks a shrunk class space, which merely contains the original top-1 class, as well as remaining less likely classes. Since the confusion ones are removed in this space, the re-calculated top-1 confidence can satisfy the pre-defined threshold. We then impose a consistency regularization between a pair of strongly and weakly augmented samples in the shrunk space to strive for discriminative representations. Furthermore, considering the varied reliability among uncertain samples and the gradually improved model during training, we correspondingly design two reweighting principles for our uncertain loss. Our method exhibits impressive performance on widely adopted benchmarks. Code is available at https://github.com/LiheYoung/ShrinkMatch.

Large language models (LLMs) often generate inaccurate or fabricated information and generally fail to indicate their confidence, which limits their broader applications. Previous work elicits confidence from LLMs by direct or self-consistency prompting, or constructing specific datasets for supervised finetuning. The prompting-based approaches have inferior performance, and the training-based approaches are limited to binary or inaccurate group-level confidence estimates. In this work, we present the advanced SaySelf, a training framework that teaches LLMs to express more accurate fine-grained confidence estimates. In addition, beyond the confidence scores, SaySelf initiates the process of directing LLMs to produce self-reflective rationales that clearly identify gaps in their parametric knowledge and explain their uncertainty. This is achieved by using an LLM to automatically summarize the uncertainties in specific knowledge via natural language. The summarization is based on the analysis of the inconsistency in multiple sampled reasoning chains, and the resulting data is utilized for supervised fine-tuning. Moreover, we utilize reinforcement learning with a meticulously crafted reward function to calibrate the confidence estimates, motivating LLMs to deliver accurate, high-confidence predictions and to penalize overconfidence in erroneous outputs. Experimental results in both in-distribution and out-of-distribution datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of SaySelf in reducing the confidence calibration error and maintaining the task performance. We show that the generated self-reflective rationales are reasonable and can further contribute to the calibration. The code is made public at https://github.com/xu1868/SaySelf.

SwiGLU has become a standard gated activation in modern Transformer MLPs, yet its gate sharpness -- the smoothness and selectivity of the gating function -- is typically fixed throughout training. In this work, we propose Confidence-Aware SwiGLU (κ-SwiGLU), a variant of SwiGLU for Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) models that adjusts expert gate sharpness according to token-level routing confidence. Specifically, κ-SwiGLU parameterizes the SiLU gate sharpness coefficient as a learnable function of the router logit, enabling each expert gate unit to interpolate between smooth, broadly active gating and sharp, selective gating. We evaluate κ-SwiGLU on the FineWeb-Edu dataset across MoE Transformer models ranging from 8 to 28 layers. Across these settings, κ-SwiGLU improves mean CORE performance while adding negligible parameters and incurring only a small computational overhead, demonstrating that confidence-aware gate sharpness is a promising mechanism for improving MoE MLPs. The code is available at https://github.com/askerlee/kappa-swiglu.

In many real-world settings, a centralized decision-maker must repeatedly allocate finite resources to a population over multiple time steps. Individuals who receive a resource derive some stochastic utility; to characterize the population-level effects of an allocation, the expected individual utilities are then aggregated using a social welfare function (SWF). We formalize this setting and present a general confidence sequence framework for SWF-based online learning and inference, valid for any monotonic, concave, and Lipschitz-continuous SWF. Our key insight is that monotonicity alone suffices to lift confidence sequences from individual utilities to anytime-valid bounds on optimal welfare. Building on this foundation, we propose SWF-UCB, a SWF-agnostic online learning algorithm that achieves near-optimal O(n+nkT) regret (for k resources distributed among n individuals at each of T time steps). We instantiate our framework on three normatively distinct SWF families: Weighted Power Mean, Kolm, and Gini, providing bespoke oracle algorithms for each. Experiments confirm T scaling and reveal rich interactions between k and SWF parameters. This framework naturally supports inference applications such as sequential hypothesis testing, optimal stopping, and policy evaluation.

Given a large pool of unlabelled data and a smaller amount of labels, prediction-powered inference (PPI) leverages machine learning predictions to increase the statistical efficiency of confidence interval procedures based solely on labelled data, while preserving fixed-time validity. In this paper, we extend the PPI framework to the sequential setting, where labelled and unlabelled datasets grow over time. Exploiting Ville's inequality and the method of mixtures, we propose prediction-powered confidence sequence procedures that are asymptotically valid uniformly over time and naturally accommodate prior knowledge on the quality of the predictions to further boost efficiency. We carefully illustrate the design choices behind our method and demonstrate its effectiveness in real and synthetic examples.

Diffusion models (DMs) as generative priors have recently shown great potential for denoising tasks but lack theoretical understanding with respect to their mean square error (MSE) optimality. This paper proposes a novel denoising strategy inspired by the structure of the MSE-optimal conditional mean estimator (CME). The resulting DM-based denoiser can be conveniently employed using a pre-trained DM, being particularly fast by truncating reverse diffusion steps and not requiring stochastic re-sampling. We present a comprehensive (non-)asymptotic optimality analysis of the proposed diffusion-based denoiser, demonstrating polynomial-time convergence to the CME under mild conditions. Our analysis also derives a novel Lipschitz constant that depends solely on the DM's hyperparameters. Further, we offer a new perspective on DMs, showing that they inherently combine an asymptotically optimal denoiser with a powerful generator, modifiable by switching re-sampling in the reverse process on or off. The theoretical findings are thoroughly validated with experiments based on various benchmark datasets

Group-based policy optimization methods like GRPO and GSPO have become standard for training multimodal models, leveraging group-wise rollouts and relative advantage estimation. However, they suffer from a critical gradient vanishing problem when all responses within a group receive identical rewards, causing advantage estimates to collapse and training signals to diminish. Existing attempts to mitigate this issue fall into two paradigms: filtering-based and sampling-based methods. Filtering-based methods first generate rollouts broadly and then retroactively filter out uninformative groups, leading to substantial computational overhead. Sampling-based methods proactively select effective samples before rollout but rely on static criteria or prior dataset knowledge, lacking real-time adaptability. To address these issues, we propose VADE, a Variance-Aware Dynamic sampling framework via online sample-level difficulty Estimation. Our framework integrates three key components: online sample-level difficulty estimation using Beta distributions, a Thompson sampler that maximizes information gain through the estimated correctness probability, and a two-scale prior decay mechanism that maintains robust estimation under policy evolution. This three components design enables VADE to dynamically select the most informative samples, thereby amplifying training signals while eliminating extra rollout costs. Extensive experiments on multimodal reasoning benchmarks show that VADE consistently outperforms strong baselines in both performance and sample efficiency, while achieving a dramatic reduction in computational overhead. More importantly, our framework can serves as a plug-and-play component to be seamlessly integrated into existing group-based RL algorithms. Code and models are available at https://VADE-RL.github.io.

We show how to turn any classifier that classifies well under Gaussian noise into a new classifier that is certifiably robust to adversarial perturbations under the ell_2 norm. This "randomized smoothing" technique has been proposed recently in the literature, but existing guarantees are loose. We prove a tight robustness guarantee in ell_2 norm for smoothing with Gaussian noise. We use randomized smoothing to obtain an ImageNet classifier with e.g. a certified top-1 accuracy of 49% under adversarial perturbations with ell_2 norm less than 0.5 (=127/255). No certified defense has been shown feasible on ImageNet except for smoothing. On smaller-scale datasets where competing approaches to certified ell_2 robustness are viable, smoothing delivers higher certified accuracies. Our strong empirical results suggest that randomized smoothing is a promising direction for future research into adversarially robust classification. Code and models are available at http://github.com/locuslab/smoothing.

Recent feed-forward geometry foundation models have demonstrated impressive generalization by recovering depth and poses in a single forward pass. However, these models are typically constrained by a global coordinate frame assumption. This dependency becomes a significant bottleneck for long-context and streaming reconstruction, as it forces the network to maintain an arbitrary temporal origin and handle translation magnitudes that grow unbounded over time. Our solution, which we call R^3, employs relative regression. We employ a lightweight MLP to predict confidence-weighted relative constraints. These confidences serve as a unified anchor: weighting losses during training and guiding pose aggregation during inference. R^3 supports both full-context offline reconstruction and causal, bounded-memory streaming. Our evaluation in both offline and streaming settings validates the effectiveness of our relative mechanism. Project page: https://kevinxu02.github.io/r3-site

Objective assessment of source-separation systems still mismatches subjective human perception, especially when leakage and self-distortion interact. We introduce the Perceptual Separation (PS) and Perceptual Match (PM), the first pair of measures that functionally isolate these two factors. Our intrusive method begins with generating a bank of fundamental distortions for each reference waveform signal in the mixture. Distortions, references, and their respective system outputs from all sources are then independently encoded by a pre-trained self-supervised learning model. These representations are aggregated and projected onto a manifold via diffusion maps, which aligns Euclidean distances on the manifold with dissimilarities of the encoded waveforms. On this manifold, the PM measures the Mahalanobis distance from each output to its attributed cluster that consists of its reference and distortions embeddings, capturing self-distortion. The PS accounts for the Mahalanobis distance of the output to the attributed and to the closest non-attributed clusters, quantifying leakage. Both measures are differentiable and granular, operating at a resolution as low as 50 frames per second. We further derive, for both measures, deterministic error radius and non-asymptotic, high-probability confidence intervals (CIs). Experiments on English, Spanish, and music mixtures show that the PS and PM nearly always achieve the highest linear correlation coefficients with human mean-opinion scores than 14 competitors, reaching as high as 86.36% for speech and 87.21% for music. We observe, at worst, an error radius of 1.39% and a probabilistic 95% CI of 12.21% for these coefficients, which improves reliable and informed evaluation. Using mutual information, the measures complement each other most as their values decrease, suggesting they are jointly more informative as system performance degrades.

Confidence calibration -- the problem of predicting probability estimates representative of the true correctness likelihood -- is important for classification models in many applications. We discover that modern neural networks, unlike those from a decade ago, are poorly calibrated. Through extensive experiments, we observe that depth, width, weight decay, and Batch Normalization are important factors influencing calibration. We evaluate the performance of various post-processing calibration methods on state-of-the-art architectures with image and document classification datasets. Our analysis and experiments not only offer insights into neural network learning, but also provide a simple and straightforward recipe for practical settings: on most datasets, temperature scaling -- a single-parameter variant of Platt Scaling -- is surprisingly effective at calibrating predictions.

We study the tradeoff between computational effort and classification accuracy in a cascade of deep neural networks. During inference, the user sets the acceptable accuracy degradation which then automatically determines confidence thresholds for the intermediate classifiers. As soon as the confidence threshold is met, inference terminates immediately without having to compute the output of the complete network. Confidence levels are derived directly from the softmax outputs of intermediate classifiers, as we do not train special decision functions. We show that using a softmax output as a confidence measure in a cascade of deep neural networks leads to a reduction of 15%-50% in the number of MAC operations while degrading the classification accuracy by roughly 1%. Our method can be easily incorporated into pre-trained non-cascaded architectures, as we exemplify on ResNet. Our main contribution is a method that dynamically adjusts the tradeoff between accuracy and computation without retraining the model.

Weak-to-strong generalization studies how to improve a strong student using supervision from a weaker teacher when reliable labels are scarce. We view this primarily as a data selection problem, where the key challenge is to identify which weak labels are reliable enough to serve as a training signal. To address this, we introduce trust functions that assign each weak label a scalar trust score and use these scores to filter weak supervision. Across several domains, including world knowledge, quantitative reasoning, and strategy games, trust filtering yields students that match and sometimes surpass ground-truth supervision, achieving near-lossless weak-to-strong generalization. Moreover, trust functions enable an iterative weak-to-strong chain that compounds gains by training a student and reusing it as the next teacher, amplifying the gains. There are several mechanisms to which advantage of trust functions can be attributed.

We propose a novel inference technique based on a pretrained diffusion model for text-conditional video generation. Our approach, called FIFO-Diffusion, is conceptually capable of generating infinitely long videos without training. This is achieved by iteratively performing diagonal denoising, which concurrently processes a series of consecutive frames with increasing noise levels in a queue; our method dequeues a fully denoised frame at the head while enqueuing a new random noise frame at the tail. However, diagonal denoising is a double-edged sword as the frames near the tail can take advantage of cleaner ones by forward reference but such a strategy induces the discrepancy between training and inference. Hence, we introduce latent partitioning to reduce the training-inference gap and lookahead denoising to leverage the benefit of forward referencing. We have demonstrated the promising results and effectiveness of the proposed methods on existing text-to-video generation baselines.

Restoring low-resolution text images presents a significant challenge, as it requires maintaining both the fidelity and stylistic realism of the text in restored images. Existing text image restoration methods often fall short in hard situations, as the traditional super-resolution models cannot guarantee clarity, while diffusion-based methods fail to maintain fidelity. In this paper, we introduce a novel framework aimed at improving the generalization ability of diffusion models for text image super-resolution (SR), especially promoting fidelity. First, we propose a progressive data sampling strategy that incorporates diverse image types at different stages of training, stabilizing the convergence and improving the generalization. For the network architecture, we leverage a pre-trained SR prior to provide robust spatial reasoning capabilities, enhancing the model's ability to preserve textual information. Additionally, we employ a cross-attention mechanism to better integrate textual priors. To further reduce errors in textual priors, we utilize confidence scores to dynamically adjust the importance of textual features during training. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that our approach not only produces text images with more realistic visual appearances but also improves the accuracy of text structure.

We study the problem of learning a single neuron with respect to the L_2^2-loss in the presence of adversarial label noise. We give an efficient algorithm that, for a broad family of activations including ReLUs, approximates the optimal L_2^2-error within a constant factor. Our algorithm applies under much milder distributional assumptions compared to prior work. The key ingredient enabling our results is a novel connection to local error bounds from optimization theory.

Large language models (LLMs) struggle with multi-step reasoning, where inference-time scaling has emerged as a promising strategy for performance improvement. Verifier-guided search outperforms repeated sampling when sample size is limited by selecting and prioritizing valid reasoning paths. However, we identify a critical limitation: scaling flaws, prevalent across different models (Mistral 7B and DeepSeekMath 7B), benchmarks (GSM8K and MATH), and verifiers (outcome value models and process reward models). As sample size increases, verifier-guided search exhibits diminishing advantages and eventually underperforms repeated sampling. Our analysis attributes this to verifier failures, where imperfect verifiers misrank candidates and erroneously prune all valid paths. These issues are further exacerbated in challenging and out-of-distribution problems, restricting search effectiveness. To mitigate verifier failures, we explore reducing reliance on verifiers and conduct preliminary investigations using two simple methods. Our findings reveal fundamental limitations in verifier-guided search and suggest future directions.

It is widely believed that noise conditioning is indispensable for denoising diffusion models to work successfully. This work challenges this belief. Motivated by research on blind image denoising, we investigate a variety of denoising-based generative models in the absence of noise conditioning. To our surprise, most models exhibit graceful degradation, and in some cases, they even perform better without noise conditioning. We provide a theoretical analysis of the error caused by removing noise conditioning and demonstrate that our analysis aligns with empirical observations. We further introduce a noise-unconditional model that achieves a competitive FID of 2.23 on CIFAR-10, significantly narrowing the gap to leading noise-conditional models. We hope our findings will inspire the community to revisit the foundations and formulations of denoising generative models.

Supervised training for real-world denoising presents challenges due to the difficulty of collecting large datasets of paired noisy and clean images. Recent methods have attempted to address this by utilizing unpaired datasets of clean and noisy images. Some approaches leverage such unpaired data to train denoisers in a supervised manner by generating synthetic clean-noisy pairs. However, these methods often fall short due to the distribution gap between synthetic and real noisy images. To mitigate this issue, we propose a solution based on input sparsification, specifically using random input masking. Our method, which we refer to as Mask, Inpaint and Denoise (MID), trains a denoiser to simultaneously denoise and inpaint synthetic clean-noisy pairs. On one hand, input sparsification reduces the gap between synthetic and real noisy images. On the other hand, an inpainter trained in a supervised manner can still accurately reconstruct sparse inputs by predicting missing clean pixels using the remaining unmasked pixels. Our approach begins with a synthetic Gaussian noise sampler and iteratively refines it using a noise dataset derived from the denoiser's predictions. The noise dataset is created by subtracting predicted pseudo-clean images from real noisy images at each iteration. The core intuition is that improving the denoiser results in a more accurate noise dataset and, consequently, a better noise sampler. We validate our method through extensive experiments on real-world noisy image datasets, demonstrating competitive performance compared to existing unsupervised denoising methods.

Bias mitigation in image classification has been widely researched, and existing methods have yielded notable results. However, most of these methods implicitly assume that a given image contains only one type of known or unknown bias, failing to consider the complexities of real-world biases. We introduce a more challenging scenario, agnostic biases mitigation, aiming at bias removal regardless of whether the type of bias or the number of types is unknown in the datasets. To address this difficult task, we present the Partition-and-Debias (PnD) method that uses a mixture of biases-specific experts to implicitly divide the bias space into multiple subspaces and a gating module to find a consensus among experts to achieve debiased classification. Experiments on both public and constructed benchmarks demonstrated the efficacy of the PnD. Code is available at: https://github.com/Jiaxuan-Li/PnD.

Tool-using agents that act in the world need to be both useful and safe. Well-calibrated model confidences can be used to weigh the risk versus reward of potential actions, but prior work shows that many models are poorly calibrated. Inspired by interpretability literature exploring the internals of models, we propose a novel class of model-internal confidence estimators (MICE) to better assess confidence when calling tools. MICE first decodes from each intermediate layer of the language model using logitLens and then computes similarity scores between each layer's generation and the final output. These features are fed into a learned probabilistic classifier to assess confidence in the decoded output. On the simulated trial and error (STE) tool-calling dataset using Llama3 models, we find that MICE beats or matches the baselines on smoothed expected calibration error. Using MICE confidences to determine whether to call a tool significantly improves over strong baselines on a new metric, expected tool-calling utility. Further experiments show that MICE is sample-efficient, can generalize zero-shot to unseen APIs, and results in higher tool-calling utility in scenarios with varying risk levels. Our code is open source, available at https://github.com/microsoft/mice_for_cats.

Effective denoising is crucial in low-dose CT to enhance subtle structures and low-contrast lesions while preventing diagnostic errors. Supervised methods struggle with limited paired datasets, and self-supervised approaches often require multiple noisy images and rely on deep networks like U-Net, offering little insight into the denoising mechanism. To address these challenges, we propose an interpretable self-supervised single-image denoising framework -- Filter2Noise (F2N). Our approach introduces an Attention-Guided Bilateral Filter that adapted to each noisy input through a lightweight module that predicts spatially varying filter parameters, which can be visualized and adjusted post-training for user-controlled denoising in specific regions of interest. To enable single-image training, we introduce a novel downsampling shuffle strategy with a new self-supervised loss function that extends the concept of Noise2Noise to a single image and addresses spatially correlated noise. On the Mayo Clinic 2016 low-dose CT dataset, F2N outperforms the leading self-supervised single-image method (ZS-N2N) by 4.59 dB PSNR while improving transparency, user control, and parametric efficiency. These features provide key advantages for medical applications that require precise and interpretable noise reduction. Our code is demonstrated at https://github.com/sypsyp97/Filter2Noise.git .