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Oct 16

Preemptive LLM Unlearning against Forbidden Capability Acquisition via Gradient Sealing

Open-weight LLMs are released not only as fixed products but also as substrates for downstream fine-tuning. This openness, however, creates legal and ethical risks because users may misuse fine-tuning to instill illicit knowledge or enable hostile operations. Model providers therefore need apre-release defense against such acquisition, motivating the problem of preemptive unlearning. Unlike retrospective unlearning, which removes capabilities already present in a fixed model, preemptive unlearning seeks to prevent their acquisition under unseen attack data and future fine-tuning procedures. Despite its practical importance, this setting remains largely unexplored, presents distinct challenges, and is therefore the central focus of our work. We first verify that existing retrospective methods provide insufficient pre-release protection. Even when forbidden capabilities are suppressed in current outputs, forbidden-domain data can still induce gradients through internal pathways, enabling later acquisition. Motivated by this finding, we propose a gradient-sealing principle that blocks these pathways by pushing relevant pre-activations into the negative region, where ReLU-family activations exhibit zero or near-zero derivatives. Experiments across multiple LLM families demonstrate our stronger resistance to downstream acquisition than retrospective baselines, validating gradient sealing as an effective mechanism for pre-release protection.

  • 9 authors
·
Oct 9

RiskChainBench: A Benchmark for Obfuscated Platform Message Restoration and Evidence-Grounded Web Investigation

Platform abuse campaigns conceal redirection instructions with emojis, homophones, character decomposition, and redundant symbols, then route users through disguised links to services associated with pornography, fraud, gambling, or illicit transactions. Existing benchmarks evaluate obfuscated text and risky webpages separately, obscuring how target recovery affects downstream evidence acquisition. We introduce RiskChainBench, pairing 3,600 synthetic token-text restoration inputs from 600 source sessions with 600 corresponding human-labeled local web environments. A model first restores the message, operational intent, and destination; the same underlying model then acts as a VLM-driven web agent that investigates the correctly associated website and produces a frozen, evidence-cited risk report without message-side semantics or domain-reputation cues. We score restoration and correct-routing web investigation separately and compose them offline by applying the frozen primary-entry prediction as a gate to the same Task 2 result. Human labels determine task correctness, while a fixed multimodal evidence judge assesses faithfulness, sufficiency, completeness, and consistency. Across ten models, Entry Top-1 ranges from 35.2% to 95.2% and web decision accuracy from 26.3% to 62.8%; the leading systems differ across entry recovery, full reconstruction, website decisions, and fine-grained typing. Execution failures account for 31.9% of web runs, whereas post-decision type errors account for only 0.9%, identifying stable exploration and risk judgment as the principal bottlenecks. We release the benchmark, protocol, and resettable local sandbox.

  • 13 authors
·
Sep 14 4

CKBP v2: Better Annotation and Reasoning for Commonsense Knowledge Base Population

Commonsense Knowledge Bases (CSKB) Population, which aims at automatically expanding knowledge in CSKBs with external resources, is an important yet hard task in NLP. Fang et al. (2021a) proposed a CSKB Population (CKBP) framework with an evaluation set CKBP v1. However, CKBP v1 relies on crowdsourced annotations that suffer from a considerable number of mislabeled answers, and the evaluationset lacks alignment with the external knowledge source due to random sampling. In this paper, we introduce CKBP v2, a new high-quality CSKB Population evaluation set that addresses the two aforementioned issues by employing domain experts as annotators and incorporating diversified adversarial samples to make the evaluation data more representative. We show that CKBP v2 serves as a challenging and representative evaluation dataset for the CSKB Population task, while its development set aids in selecting a population model that leads to improved knowledge acquisition for downstream commonsense reasoning. A better population model can also help acquire more informative commonsense knowledge as additional supervision signals for both generative commonsense inference and zero-shot commonsense question answering. Specifically, the question-answering model based on DeBERTa-v3-large (He et al., 2023b) even outperforms powerful large language models in a zero-shot setting, including ChatGPT and GPT-3.5.

  • 7 authors
·
Apr 20, 2023

OrganLens: Organ-Specific Representation Learning for CT Foundation Models

A CT examination captures multiple organs, but many biomedical questions concern abnormalities, prognosis, or longitudinal change in a specific organ. These questions require a separate representation for each organ within the same CT volume. Existing CT foundation models commonly produce a single volume-level representation, while recent anatomy-aware methods either encode pre-separated organ volumes or explicitly disentangle images into organ token groups. The former may remove clinically relevant surrounding context, while the latter does not condition a shared encoder on a selected organ before its features are formed. We introduce OrganLens for organ-specific representation learning through self-supervision. An organ identity conditions a shared CT encoder, while organ-specific distillation and anatomy-mask supervision shape features for anatomy-weighted pooling into organ-specific representations. At inference, the shared model produces 11 organ-specific representations without external segmentation masks. We evaluate OrganLens on CT-RATE, RAD-ChestCT, INSPECT, and NLST across diverse acquisitions and downstream evaluations. Relative to CT-pretrained DINOv2, heart representations raise CT-RATE cardiomegaly AUROC from 0.910 to 0.953, while lung representations improve the Harrell C-index for NLST lung-cancer mortality by 14.2\%. The global representation reaches INSPECT Recall@10 of 33.09\% and 32.04\% for text-to-image and image-to-text retrieval, respectively. Across organ-related tasks, anatomically matched representations provide stronger task-relevant signal, while the global representation retains broad utility. OrganLens offers a scalable approach to organ-specific CT representation learning with a shared encoder. More broadly, it provides the medical research community with a reusable framework for studying organ-specific disease across cohorts and clinical endpoints.

  • 5 authors
·
Jul 27

PacGDC: Label-Efficient Generalizable Depth Completion with Projection Ambiguity and Consistency

Generalizable depth completion enables the acquisition of dense metric depth maps for unseen environments, offering robust perception capabilities for various downstream tasks. However, training such models typically requires large-scale datasets with metric depth labels, which are often labor-intensive to collect. This paper presents PacGDC, a label-efficient technique that enhances data diversity with minimal annotation effort for generalizable depth completion. PacGDC builds on novel insights into inherent ambiguities and consistencies in object shapes and positions during 2D-to-3D projection, allowing the synthesis of numerous pseudo geometries for the same visual scene. This process greatly broadens available geometries by manipulating scene scales of the corresponding depth maps. To leverage this property, we propose a new data synthesis pipeline that uses multiple depth foundation models as scale manipulators. These models robustly provide pseudo depth labels with varied scene scales, affecting both local objects and global layouts, while ensuring projection consistency that supports generalization. To further diversify geometries, we incorporate interpolation and relocation strategies, as well as unlabeled images, extending the data coverage beyond the individual use of foundation models. Extensive experiments show that PacGDC achieves remarkable generalizability across multiple benchmarks, excelling in diverse scene semantics/scales and depth sparsity/patterns under both zero-shot and few-shot settings. Code: https://github.com/Wang-xjtu/PacGDC.

  • 5 authors
·
Jul 9, 2025

VisDocAgentBench: Benchmarking Agents for Visually Rich Document Retrieval

Visually rich documents encode relevance through language, layout, structured visual elements, and corpus context, yet retrieval is typically evaluated by one-shot query--page matching. Agentic-search benchmarks usually score downstream question answering or report generation, leaving document ranking under iterative evidence acquisition underexplored. We introduce VisDocAgentBench, a closed-corpus benchmark comparing static and agentic retrieval under a shared ranked-output contract. It contains 2,375 pages from 100 documents and 120 unique-target queries balanced across direct, one-bridge, and two-bridge evidence structures. Relation-preserving construction yields semantic, relational, and visual queries, followed by full-document review and hard-negative validation. A strong late-interaction visual retriever reaches 97.50% Recall@1 on direct items but 2.50% on two-bridge items, exposing the limits of query--target matching when relevance depends on corpus context. Agents recover much of this loss, but planner choice and retrieval representation remain decisive. Every planner performs better with visual retrieval, whose best R@1 reaches 67.50% versus 37.50% for OCR-text. Ablations identify iterative search and page inspection as consequential capabilities, and providing the complete support context improves ranking on both routes. Trace analysis localizes the remaining losses to target discovery, candidate examination, and evidence-role integration. These findings motivate retrieval agents that combine modality-preserving discovery with evidence-directed verification.

  • 8 authors
·
Aug 18

HSIGene: A Foundation Model For Hyperspectral Image Generation

Hyperspectral image (HSI) plays a vital role in various fields such as agriculture and environmental monitoring. However, due to the expensive acquisition cost, the number of hyperspectral images is limited, degenerating the performance of downstream tasks. Although some recent studies have attempted to employ diffusion models to synthesize HSIs, they still struggle with the scarcity of HSIs, affecting the reliability and diversity of the generated images. Some studies propose to incorporate multi-modal data to enhance spatial diversity, but the spectral fidelity cannot be ensured. In addition, existing HSI synthesis models are typically uncontrollable or only support single-condition control, limiting their ability to generate accurate and reliable HSIs. To alleviate these issues, we propose HSIGene, a novel HSI generation foundation model which is based on latent diffusion and supports multi-condition control, allowing for more precise and reliable HSI generation. To enhance the spatial diversity of the training data while preserving spectral fidelity, we propose a new data augmentation method based on spatial super-resolution, in which HSIs are upscaled first, and thus abundant training patches could be obtained by cropping the high-resolution HSIs. In addition, to improve the perceptual quality of the augmented data, we introduce a novel two-stage HSI super-resolution framework, which first applies RGB bands super-resolution and then utilizes our proposed Rectangular Guided Attention Network (RGAN) for guided HSI super-resolution. Experiments demonstrate that the proposed model is capable of generating a vast quantity of realistic HSIs for downstream tasks such as denoising and super-resolution. The code and models are available at https://github.com/LiPang/HSIGene.

  • 7 authors
·
Sep 19, 2024

Empowering Multimodal LLMs with External Tools: A Comprehensive Survey

By integrating the perception capabilities of multimodal encoders with the generative power of Large Language Models (LLMs), Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs), exemplified by GPT-4V, have achieved great success in various multimodal tasks, pointing toward a promising pathway to artificial general intelligence. Despite this progress, the limited quality of multimodal data, poor performance on many complex downstream tasks, and inadequate evaluation protocols continue to hinder the reliability and broader applicability of MLLMs across diverse domains. Inspired by the human ability to leverage external tools for enhanced reasoning and problem-solving, augmenting MLLMs with external tools (e.g., APIs, expert models, and knowledge bases) offers a promising strategy to overcome these challenges. In this paper, we present a comprehensive survey on leveraging external tools to enhance MLLM performance. Our discussion is structured along four key dimensions about external tools: (1) how they can facilitate the acquisition and annotation of high-quality multimodal data; (2) how they can assist in improving MLLM performance on challenging downstream tasks; (3) how they enable comprehensive and accurate evaluation of MLLMs; (4) the current limitations and future directions of tool-augmented MLLMs. Through this survey, we aim to underscore the transformative potential of external tools in advancing MLLM capabilities, offering a forward-looking perspective on their development and applications. The project page of this paper is publicly available athttps://github.com/Lackel/Awesome-Tools-for-MLLMs.

  • 6 authors
·
Aug 14, 2025

Physiology-Aware Masked Cross-Modal Reconstruction for Biosignal Representation Learning

Biosignals acquired from different locations on the body often provide temporally ordered views of the same underlying physiological process. However, most existing self supervised learning methods treat these signals as interchangeable views, overlooking the directional temporal dynamics that link them. A canonical example is the relationship between electrocardiography (ECG), which captures the electrical activation initiating each heartbeat, and photoplethysmography (PPG), which records the resulting peripheral pulse delayed by vascular dynamics. To capture this structured relationship, we introduce xMAE, a biosignal pretraining framework that leverages masked cross modal reconstruction across temporally ordered biosignals as a training time constraint to encourage physiologically meaningful timing structure in the learned representations. We show that pretraining with xMAE yields representations that outperform both unimodal and multimodal baselines on 15 of 19 downstream tasks, including cardiovascular outcome prediction, abnormal laboratory test detection, sleep staging, and demographic inference, while generalizing across devices, body locations, and acquisition settings. Further analysis suggests that the ECG PPG timing structure is reflected in the learned PPG representations. More broadly, xMAE demonstrates the effectiveness of incorporating temporal structure into multimodal pretraining when signals observe different stages of a shared underlying process. Code is available at https://github.com/hzhou3/xMAE.

  • 15 authors
·
Apr 30

Uncertainty Quantification for Flow-Based Vision-Language-Action Models

Vision-language-action models (VLAs) combine vision-language backbones with expressive generative action heads trained via flow matching on large-scale robotic datasets. Despite their strong empirical performance in robotic manipulation, VLAs lack mechanisms to quantify confidence in their predictions and to detect when their actions may be unreliable. This presents a critical limitation for real-world deployment in non-stationary environments, where models inevitably encounter scenarios outside their pretraining distribution and may fail without warning. To address this, we derive an efficient method for quantifying epistemic uncertainty in flow-matching models by leveraging velocity-field disagreement (VFD) across a small ensemble. We successfully use this uncertainty estimate for failure detection during deployment and active fine-tuning of flow-based VLAs. To this end, we propose SAVE, a framework for uncertainty-guided active multitask fine-tuning that reduces the number of costly expert demonstrations required to adapt VLAs to new tasks. Through extensive experiments on the LIBERO benchmark, we demonstrate that VFD yields better-calibrated uncertainty estimates predictive of downstream performance, that VFD achieves strong performance in detecting failures, and that uncertainty-guided data acquisition with SAVE requires at least 22% fewer samples than baselines. In summary, our work shows that quantifying epistemic uncertainty in flow-based VLAs improves both failure awareness and adaptation. Project website: tum-lsy.github.io/uq_vla/.

  • 8 authors
·
Jun 15

Connecting the Dots: LLMs can Infer and Verbalize Latent Structure from Disparate Training Data

One way to address safety risks from large language models (LLMs) is to censor dangerous knowledge from their training data. While this removes the explicit information, implicit information can remain scattered across various training documents. Could an LLM infer the censored knowledge by piecing together these implicit hints? As a step towards answering this question, we study inductive out-of-context reasoning (OOCR), a type of generalization in which LLMs infer latent information from evidence distributed across training documents and apply it to downstream tasks without in-context learning. Using a suite of five tasks, we demonstrate that frontier LLMs can perform inductive OOCR. In one experiment we finetune an LLM on a corpus consisting only of distances between an unknown city and other known cities. Remarkably, without in-context examples or Chain of Thought, the LLM can verbalize that the unknown city is Paris and use this fact to answer downstream questions. Further experiments show that LLMs trained only on individual coin flip outcomes can verbalize whether the coin is biased, and those trained only on pairs (x,f(x)) can articulate a definition of f and compute inverses. While OOCR succeeds in a range of cases, we also show that it is unreliable, particularly for smaller LLMs learning complex structures. Overall, the ability of LLMs to "connect the dots" without explicit in-context learning poses a potential obstacle to monitoring and controlling the knowledge acquired by LLMs.

  • 7 authors
·
Jun 20, 2024

Why Has Predicting Downstream Capabilities of Frontier AI Models with Scale Remained Elusive?

Predictable behavior from scaling advanced AI systems is an extremely desirable property. Although a well-established literature exists on how pretraining performance scales, the literature on how particular downstream capabilities scale is significantly muddier. In this work, we take a step back and ask: why has predicting specific downstream capabilities with scale remained elusive? While many factors are certainly responsible, we identify a new factor that makes modeling scaling behavior on widely used multiple-choice question-answering benchmarks challenging. Using five model families and twelve well-established multiple-choice benchmarks, we show that downstream performance is computed from negative log likelihoods via a sequence of transformations that progressively degrade the statistical relationship between performance and scale. We then reveal the mechanism causing this degradation: downstream metrics require comparing the correct choice against a small number of specific incorrect choices, meaning accurately predicting downstream capabilities requires predicting not just how probability mass concentrates on the correct choice with scale, but also how probability mass fluctuates on specific incorrect choices with scale. We empirically study how probability mass on the correct choice co-varies with probability mass on incorrect choices with increasing compute, suggesting that scaling laws for incorrect choices might be achievable. Our work also explains why pretraining scaling laws are commonly regarded as more predictable than downstream capabilities and contributes towards establishing scaling-predictable evaluations of frontier AI models.

  • 9 authors
·
Jun 6, 2024

When "Must" Becomes "Maybe": Constraint Weakening in LLM Agent Workflows

Large language model (LLM) agents coordinate complex tasks through multi-role and multi-stage workflows. Upstream state is repeatedly transformed into intermediate language artifacts, such as summaries, plans, tickets, memories, and handoff notes, from which downstream components act. For action-constraining state, topical retention is insufficient: an artifact may mention an unresolved condition while changing it from a requirement that must be resolved before execution into information that may merely inform the next action. We study this action-binding role as operational state preservation. Safety blockers provide a controlled instance because each source state has an explicit prerequisite, authority, fallback, and execution consequence. We condition on correct upstream identification, vary the handoff transformation, and evaluate an executor restricted to the resulting artifact. Across 1,296 controlled synthetic episodes, direct-handoff controls preserve every blocker, whereas compression, plan assimilation, convergence, ownership deferral, and precedent substitution repeatedly turn binding state into caveats or non-binding considerations. Normal handoff compression produces 100.0% deactivation and 54.2% forbidden action. Restoring all four state fields raises preservation to 100.0% and reduces forbidden action to 0.0%. Fixed-artifact interventions further separate preservation from containment: downstream verification eliminates forbidden action while artifact deactivation remains 95.3%. These results identify a state-transmission failure between information extraction and action. Handoff transformations can retain state content while weakening its constraints on downstream action. Semantic availability does not guarantee operational preservation.

  • 6 authors
·
Aug 24 2

Machine Learning Enhanced Multi-Factor Quantitative Trading: A Cross-Sectional Portfolio Optimization Approach with Bias Correction

Rolling-window factor pipelines for Chinese A-share markets contain a subtle but costly flaw: daily price-move limits (+/-10% main-board, +/-20% STAR/ChiNext) render a fraction of closing prices non-executable, yet standard implementations ingest these values before any row-filtering runs. The contaminated aggregates propagate silently through moving averages, correlations, and ranks--a failure mode we term "upstream contamination". On real A-share data it inflates apparent information coefficient by 18% while reducing realised Sharpe by 0.44 points, because the model learns to predict returns it cannot trade. We resolve this with a mask-first design: a Boolean tradability mask is constructed at data load time and threaded through every operator, so that no window ever reads a non-tradable price. Built on this foundation, the system adds (i) a GPU-vectorised 213-factor engine via PyTorch unfold primitives (51x over pandas); (ii) an Adjusted-MSE loss penalising wrong-sign predictions 11x more heavily than magnitude errors; (iii) block-bootstrap GBM augmentation; and (iv) Markowitz-Ledoit-Wolf portfolio optimisation with cvxpy warm-start caching. On a calibrated 3,000-stock synthetic panel the system achieves annualised Sharpe 2.05; on proprietary real A-share data (2022-2024) it achieves Sharpe 1.63. Ablation shows the mask contract is the single largest contributor (+0.44), exceeding any model or loss choice. The full implementation is released under MIT licence at https://github.com/initial-d/ml-quant-trading.

  • 1 authors
·
May 8 1

Cost-Effective Repository Exploration for Agentic Issue Localization

Repository exploration is a distinct and costly stage of coding-agent pipelines: before generating a patch, an agent must identify which repository files are likely to matter. We study whether this stage can be delegated to lower-cost models while retaining useful localization quality. Using our IssueLoc-Bench, we evaluate five explorer models under the same read-only interactive interface on 499 SWE-bench Verified-derived tasks and 500 tasks from 153 additional repositories. We measure early candidate discovery, top-three gold-file coverage, strict file-set recovery, agent time, and token usage, with paired instance-level uncertainty and repository-clustered sensitivity analysis. The highest-quality explorer leads across localization metrics, but substantially cheaper operating points emerge: depending on the model and evaluation arm, lower-cost explorers retain approximately 78-94% of the reference Hit@3 and 73-92% of its F1 while reducing mean agent time by 41-88% and token usage by 84-95%. The preferred operating point depends on how localization is consumed downstream: ranking and coverage metrics characterize recoverable candidate handoffs, whereas F1 and exact match characterize restrictive file gates. These results support treating repository exploration as an independently measurable and budgetable stage of modular coding agents, with explorer selection guided by the downstream handoff contract.

  • 2 authors
·
Aug 29

PeaTMOSS: A Dataset and Initial Analysis of Pre-Trained Models in Open-Source Software

The development and training of deep learning models have become increasingly costly and complex. Consequently, software engineers are adopting pre-trained models (PTMs) for their downstream applications. The dynamics of the PTM supply chain remain largely unexplored, signaling a clear need for structured datasets that document not only the metadata but also the subsequent applications of these models. Without such data, the MSR community cannot comprehensively understand the impact of PTM adoption and reuse. This paper presents the PeaTMOSS dataset, which comprises metadata for 281,638 PTMs and detailed snapshots for all PTMs with over 50 monthly downloads (14,296 PTMs), along with 28,575 open-source software repositories from GitHub that utilize these models. Additionally, the dataset includes 44,337 mappings from 15,129 downstream GitHub repositories to the 2,530 PTMs they use. To enhance the dataset's comprehensiveness, we developed prompts for a large language model to automatically extract model metadata, including the model's training datasets, parameters, and evaluation metrics. Our analysis of this dataset provides the first summary statistics for the PTM supply chain, showing the trend of PTM development and common shortcomings of PTM package documentation. Our example application reveals inconsistencies in software licenses across PTMs and their dependent projects. PeaTMOSS lays the foundation for future research, offering rich opportunities to investigate the PTM supply chain. We outline mining opportunities on PTMs, their downstream usage, and cross-cutting questions.

  • 9 authors
·
Feb 1, 2024 1

TESSERA v2: Scaling Pixel-wise Earth Foundation Models

Pixel-wise Earth-observation (EO) foundation models are now achieving state-of-the-art performance via generated spatial embeddings. However, how these models scale and how best to spend a pretraining budget remain poorly understood. We present the largest controlled scaling study for EO to date: 395 training runs on 1,024 GH200 superchips within a fixed pixel-wise Barlow Twins family, each evaluated on 15 downstream tasks. We find that pretraining loss barely predicts downstream performance (|Pearson r| < 0.2), so selecting models by loss wastes a large share of the compute. We also find that, as the training budget grows, the encoder and the data should grow together while the projector stays fixed, which gives a simple rule for allocating compute. Using this rule, we train a family of pixel-wise models (0.5B and 1B, with a 2B model in training) and distill them into compact students for embeddings-as-data deployment. The 21-million-parameter distilled TESSERA v2-1B-M in aggregate outperforms all open and proprietary models tested, some of which are orders of magnitude larger. These students produce Matryoshka representations that are inexpensive to serve: a 16-dimensional prefix keeps 92% of the full 128-dimensional performance at 1/8 of the storage. Upon completion of training we plan to release v2 global embeddings covering 2017-2025. Together, these results give a concrete, empirically grounded recipe for scaling pixel-wise EO foundation models: train large encoders, select by downstream performance, and distil into flexible student models. All code will be released at https://github.com/ucam-eo/tessera.

Rethinking Supervised Pre-training for Better Downstream Transferring

The pretrain-finetune paradigm has shown outstanding performance on many applications of deep learning, where a model is pre-trained on a upstream large dataset (e.g. ImageNet), and is then fine-tuned to different downstream tasks. Though for most cases, the pre-training stage is conducted based on supervised methods, recent works on self-supervised pre-training have shown powerful transferability and even outperform supervised pre-training on multiple downstream tasks. It thus remains an open question how to better generalize supervised pre-training model to downstream tasks. In this paper, we argue that the worse transferability of existing supervised pre-training methods arise from the negligence of valuable intra-class semantic difference. This is because these methods tend to push images from the same class close to each other despite of the large diversity in their visual contents, a problem to which referred as "overfit of upstream tasks". To alleviate this problem, we propose a new supervised pre-training method based on Leave-One-Out K-Nearest-Neighbor, or LOOK for short. It relieves the problem of overfitting upstream tasks by only requiring each image to share its class label with most of its k nearest neighbors, thus allowing each class to exhibit a multi-mode distribution and consequentially preserving part of intra-class difference for better transferring to downstream tasks. We developed efficient implementation of the proposed method that scales well to large datasets. Experimental studies on multiple downstream tasks show that LOOK outperforms other state-of-the-art methods for supervised and self-supervised pre-training.

  • 5 authors
·
Oct 12, 2021

When Token Transfers Do Not Mean Liquidity in Tokenized Real-World Assets

On-chain transfer volume is often used to describe activity in tokenized real-world assets (RWAs), although recorded transfers may reflect very different economic functions, including token creation, destruction, issuer-related operations, and movements between other addresses. Ownership measures face a similar problem because a large address balance may belong to a pool or intermediary that represents multiple investors. We address these two measurement problems by decomposing transfer activity and making ownership coverage explicit. Transfer turnover is calculated before and after observable event categories are separated, using the same asset, observation window, and supply denominator. For ownership, we compare concentration measured against total supply with concentration among the addresses that remain after identified intermediaries are excluded. Using Ethereum-based tokenized funds from December 2025 to August 2026, we find that transfer classification can materially change measured turnover. We also show that removing an intermediary can lower concentration when measured against total supply while concentration among the remaining addresses increases. Transfer activity and address concentration need to be interpreted with their underlying transaction functions and ownership coverage in mind. These measures provide evidence about liquidity-related activity, but they do not directly measure market liquidity. The code and data used in the analysis are available at https://github.com/atytmr07/rwa-liquidity.

  • 2 authors
·
Oct 4

Markovian Shock-Source Tracing and Multidimensional Asset Roles in Exchange Rates, Gold Futures, and Bitcoin

This study examines cross-asset connectedness in an international financial network of major exchange rates, gold futures, and Bitcoin. Moving beyond the conventional net transmitter--receiver classification, we characterize asset roles through three complementary dimensions: direct spillover transmission, stationary source-tracing dynamics, and multistep upstream connectivity. Return spillovers are estimated using VAR generalized forecast-error variance decomposition (VAR-GFEVD). The positive pairwise net-spillover structure is then mapped into a row-stochastic Markov kernel whose transitions trace dominant net-spillover sources in the reverse direction of the original transmission edges. A stationary departure flux describes long-run movement in this source-tracing chain, while Viral Centrality is evaluated by the deterministic probability-propagation algorithm of Fink et al. to approximate multistep upstream reach. Empirically, gold futures emerge as the dominant direct net transmitter and the leading stationary source-tracing node, but do not have the largest Viral Centrality. Several exchange-rate nodes classified as direct net receivers have relatively high Viral Centrality, indicating broad conditional access to upstream source nodes. Bitcoin occupies an intermediate role. An auxiliary specification including the U.S. Dollar Index yields qualitatively similar role differentiation. The results show that direct connectedness, stationary source tracing, and approximate multistep upstream reach cannot be inferred from NET spillovers alone. All diffusion interpretations are descriptive and conditional on the estimated network, row normalization, and restart closure.

  • 4 authors
·
Sep 2

From Ideas to Actions: A Public-Data Decision-Support Toolchain Across the Venture Lifecycle

Founders face two linked decisions: whether to pursue an idea before founding, and which operating actions and capital partners fit afterward. We present a public-data decision-support toolchain combining time-bounded proposal profiling, market and moat checks, and deterministic aggregation with auditable investor-company event chains for retrospective analysis. Pre-founding: (a) After threshold selection on 198 development companies, the frozen pipeline achieves F0.5=0.5357 [0.412, 0.655] on an independent, row-disjoint 198-company validation sample. On the combined 396 rows, the Full Pipeline scores 0.6301 versus 0.2734 for a paired Raw LLM baseline. Post-stratification of 1,027 completed cases in a separate scale cohort yields 0.6506 [0.598, 0.707]; the run remains incomplete. A 377-row composition-matched check yields 0.6573. (b) The AI-inference study identifies distribution-layer businesses as a replicable path to independent profitability with a limited revenue ceiling, and frontier-model ownership as a path to capital-market upside at exceptional capital cost. Post-founding: (a) Public sources support auditable event-chain analysis. (b) In the chip-company study, sustained product, customer, and supply-chain progress is associated with better observed outcomes; financing alone does not establish operating progress. (c) Financing comprises 79% of confirmed visible post-investment actions. Evidence tentatively favors acquisition-experienced strategic corporate investors for acquisition-oriented founders and financing-led institutional VCs with fewer observed control events for independence-oriented founders. Findings are developmental and observational, not causal guarantees or investment advice. We release shared ontology, provenance-bearing EventChain data, schemas, benchmarks, and executable skills for audit, reuse, and extension.

  • 1 authors
·
Sep 13

IndustryLLM: Failure-Driven LLM Training for Industrial Procurement

Industrial procurement requires language models to bridge informal buyer jargon, sparse marketplace attributes, and authoritative engineering standards under strict safety tolerances. We present IndustryLLM, an open-weight industrial language model trained from Qwen3.5-35B-A3B-Base (35B total parameters with ~3B activated per token, with the vision encoder frozen). Rather than relying on generic text scaling, we introduce a failure-driven adaptation recipe spanning continued pre-training (CPT) and supervised fine-tuning (SFT). CPT leverages a curated ~100B-token corpus integrating 5B tokens of national standards (e.g., GB/T) and technical archives, 10B tokens of de-identified real-world industrial transaction and inquiry records, and 60B tokens of general replay. To overcome register mismatch and factual brittleness, we systematically reconstruct an estimated 20B-token domain subset via multi-register rewriting across 10 genres and 8 writing styles, confidence-routed minimal factual editing, and error-targeted QA synthesis (resolving colloquial typos like '42-luo-mu' -> 42CrMo, expanding ambiguous codes like '16674' -> GB/T 16674, and clarifying conflicting dimensional specs). For downstream deployment, we formalize an evidence-gated constraint-evaluation interface enforcing three-valued logic where unverified product evidence remains unknown rather than satisfied. Offline evaluations demonstrate consistent gains on procurement-query structuring (+2.97 percentage points in exact match, 95% CI [2.11, 3.86] in No-Think mode), while randomized online A/B experiments in production yield substantial improvements (+4.25% GMV, +8.3% satisfied inquiries) alongside a latency reduction from 6-7 s to 1.5 s. Model weights and configs are released at https://huggingface.co/alibaba-multimodal-industrial-ai/IndustryLLM.

MerchantBench: Benchmarking LLM Agents for Long-Term Coherence in E-Commerce Operations

Large language model agents are increasingly evaluated as autonomous tool users, yet most benchmarks focus on bounded tasks with immediate success criteria. Real-world deployments often require Long-Term Coherence, the capacity to preserve purposeful behavior across extended horizons while adapting decisions to accumulated evidence. Evaluating this capacity requires a persistent environment in which actions constrain future choices, feedback arrives at heterogeneous delays, and incoherent behavior produces measurable cumulative effects. Seller-side e-commerce provides a suitable setting for this evaluation through recurrent and interdependent decisions over Product Sourcing, Listing and Pricing Control, Cash-Flow Management, and Mixed-Latency Feedback Adaptation. We introduce MerchantBench, a 365-day order-level simulation grounded in 98,843 real e-commerce product records and equipped with 26 tools for agent interaction. MerchantBench couples promptly observable Upstream Supplier Events with delayed Downstream Order Outcomes, requiring agents to follow individual order lifecycles and revisit earlier decisions. We evaluate eight LLMs under two agent frameworks in 48 runs, each spanning 365 simulated days. Our results reveal a substantial gap between even the latest LLMs and human participants, with the best LLM configuration attaining only 27.3\% of the mean final net assets achieved by human participants.

alibabagroup alibaba
·
Jul 30 5

Provable Benefits of Multi-task RL under Non-Markovian Decision Making Processes

In multi-task reinforcement learning (RL) under Markov decision processes (MDPs), the presence of shared latent structures among multiple MDPs has been shown to yield significant benefits to the sample efficiency compared to single-task RL. In this paper, we investigate whether such a benefit can extend to more general sequential decision making problems, such as partially observable MDPs (POMDPs) and more general predictive state representations (PSRs). The main challenge here is that the large and complex model space makes it hard to identify what types of common latent structure of multi-task PSRs can reduce the model complexity and improve sample efficiency. To this end, we posit a joint model class for tasks and use the notion of eta-bracketing number to quantify its complexity; this number also serves as a general metric to capture the similarity of tasks and thus determines the benefit of multi-task over single-task RL. We first study upstream multi-task learning over PSRs, in which all tasks share the same observation and action spaces. We propose a provably efficient algorithm UMT-PSR for finding near-optimal policies for all PSRs, and demonstrate that the advantage of multi-task learning manifests if the joint model class of PSRs has a smaller eta-bracketing number compared to that of individual single-task learning. We also provide several example multi-task PSRs with small eta-bracketing numbers, which reap the benefits of multi-task learning. We further investigate downstream learning, in which the agent needs to learn a new target task that shares some commonalities with the upstream tasks via a similarity constraint. By exploiting the learned PSRs from the upstream, we develop a sample-efficient algorithm that provably finds a near-optimal policy.

  • 5 authors
·
Oct 20, 2023