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Mar 4

Before It's Too Late: A State Space Model for the Early Prediction of Misinformation and Disinformation Engagement

In today's digital age, conspiracies and information campaigns can emerge rapidly and erode social and democratic cohesion. While recent deep learning approaches have made progress in modeling engagement through language and propagation models, they struggle with irregularly sampled data and early trajectory assessment. We present IC-Mamba, a novel state space model that forecasts social media engagement by modeling interval-censored data with integrated temporal embeddings. Our model excels at predicting engagement patterns within the crucial first 15-30 minutes of posting (RMSE 0.118-0.143), enabling rapid assessment of content reach. By incorporating interval-censored modeling into the state space framework, IC-Mamba captures fine-grained temporal dynamics of engagement growth, achieving a 4.72% improvement over state-of-the-art across multiple engagement metrics (likes, shares, comments, and emojis). Our experiments demonstrate IC-Mamba's effectiveness in forecasting both post-level dynamics and broader narrative patterns (F1 0.508-0.751 for narrative-level predictions). The model maintains strong predictive performance across extended time horizons, successfully forecasting opinion-level engagement up to 28 days ahead using observation windows of 3-10 days. These capabilities enable earlier identification of potentially problematic content, providing crucial lead time for designing and implementing countermeasures. Code is available at: https://github.com/ltian678/ic-mamba. An interactive dashboard demonstrating our results is available at: https://ic-mamba.behavioral-ds.science.

  • 5 authors
·
Feb 6, 2025

A Hierarchy-based Analysis Approach for Blended Learning: A Case Study with Chinese Students

Blended learning is generally defined as the combination of traditional face-to-face learning and online learning. This learning mode has been widely used in advanced education across the globe due to the COVID-19 pandemic's social distance restriction as well as the development of technology. Online learning plays an important role in blended learning, and as it requires more student autonomy, the quality of blended learning in advanced education has been a persistent concern. Existing literature offers several elements and frameworks regarding evaluating the quality of blended learning. However, most of them either have different favours for evaluation perspectives or simply offer general guidance for evaluation, reducing the completeness, objectivity and practicalness of related works. In order to carry out a more intuitive and comprehensive evaluation framework, this paper proposes a hierarchy-based analysis approach. Applying gradient boosting model and feature importance evaluation method, this approach mainly analyses student engagement and its three identified dimensions (behavioral engagement, emotional engagement, cognitive engagement) to eliminate some existing stubborn problems when it comes to blended learning evaluation. The results show that cognitive engagement and emotional engagement play a more important role in blended learning evaluation, implying that these two should be considered to improve for better learning as well as teaching quality.

  • 9 authors
·
Sep 18, 2023

IntrEx: A Dataset for Modeling Engagement in Educational Conversations

Engagement and motivation are crucial for second-language acquisition, yet maintaining learner interest in educational conversations remains a challenge. While prior research has explored what makes educational texts interesting, still little is known about the linguistic features that drive engagement in conversations. To address this gap, we introduce IntrEx, the first large dataset annotated for interestingness and expected interestingness in teacher-student interactions. Built upon the Teacher-Student Chatroom Corpus (TSCC), IntrEx extends prior work by incorporating sequence-level annotations, allowing for the study of engagement beyond isolated turns to capture how interest evolves over extended dialogues. We employ a rigorous annotation process with over 100 second-language learners, using a comparison-based rating approach inspired by reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) to improve agreement. We investigate whether large language models (LLMs) can predict human interestingness judgments. We find that LLMs (7B/8B parameters) fine-tuned on interestingness ratings outperform larger proprietary models like GPT-4o, demonstrating the potential for specialised datasets to model engagement in educational settings. Finally, we analyze how linguistic and cognitive factors, such as concreteness, comprehensibility (readability), and uptake, influence engagement in educational dialogues.

  • 4 authors
·
Sep 8, 2025 2

Let AI Entertain You: Increasing User Engagement with Generative AI and Rejection Sampling

While generative AI excels in content generation, it does not always increase user engagement. This can be attributed to two main factors. First, generative AI generates content without incorporating explicit or implicit feedback about user interactions. Even if the generated content seems to be more informative or well-written, it does not necessarily lead to an increase in user activities, such as clicks. Second, there is a concern with the quality of the content generative AI produces, which often lacks the distinctiveness and authenticity that human-created content possesses. These two factors can lead to content that fails to meet specific needs and preferences of users, ultimately reducing its potential to be engaging. This paper presents a generic framework of how to improve user engagement with generative AI by leveraging user feedback. Our solutions employ rejection sampling, a technique used in reinforcement learning, to boost engagement metrics. We leveraged the framework in the context of email notification subject lines generation for an online social network, and achieved significant engagement metric lift including +1% Session and +0.4% Weekly Active Users. We believe our work offers a universal framework that enhances user engagement with generative AI, particularly when standard generative AI reaches its limits in terms of enhancing content to be more captivating. To the best of our knowledge, this represents an early milestone in the industry's successful use of generative AI to enhance user engagement.

  • 6 authors
·
Dec 16, 2023