Daily Papers

How do we most effectively treat a disease or condition? Ideally, we could consult a database of evidence gleaned from clinical trials to answer such questions. Unfortunately, no such database exists; clinical trial results are instead disseminated primarily via lengthy natural language articles. Perusing all such articles would be prohibitively time-consuming for healthcare practitioners; they instead tend to depend on manually compiled systematic reviews of medical literature to inform care. NLP may speed this process up, and eventually facilitate immediate consult of published evidence. The Evidence Inference dataset was recently released to facilitate research toward this end. This task entails inferring the comparative performance of two treatments, with respect to a given outcome, from a particular article (describing a clinical trial) and identifying supporting evidence. For instance: Does this article report that chemotherapy performed better than surgery for five-year survival rates of operable cancers? In this paper, we collect additional annotations to expand the Evidence Inference dataset by 25\%, provide stronger baseline models, systematically inspect the errors that these make, and probe dataset quality. We also release an abstract only (as opposed to full-texts) version of the task for rapid model prototyping. The updated corpus, documentation, and code for new baselines and evaluations are available at http://evidence-inference.ebm-nlp.com/.

Systematic reviewers who use a model to read randomized trials need each answer and a measure of how far to trust it. If the model is calibrated, so that its stated probabilities match how often it is right, a reviewer can accept its confident answers and check the rest by hand. This paper fine-tunes Qwen3-4B-Base with low-rank adapters and a classification head for evidence inference (Lehman et al., 2019; DeYoung et al., 2020): given a trial's article and a prompt that names an intervention, a comparator and an outcome, classify the result as a significant increase, a significant decrease or no significant difference. The articles of Evidence Inference 2.0 come from the open-access subset of PubMed Central, which includes articles under non-commercial and no-derivatives licenses, so the released model was fine-tuned only on the 1,431 of 2,657 training articles under CC BY, CC0 or the public domain; it is released under the Apache License 2.0 and runs on a laptop. On the test split, its expected calibration error is 0.017 and its log loss is lower than that of Gemma 4 31B-it given the same input zero-shot, meeting criteria registered on the Open Science Framework before testing. Its macro-F1, 0.925, is above every published result on that split that I found, though those systems used other inputs, scoring rules and prompt filters, and the test labels are public. Accepting its 80 percent most confident answers leaves an error rate of 2.6 percent among them. Context ablations show that the answers depend on the article, but the title alone carries some signal, which an informative title or recall of the trial could explain.

An action seen once and the same action seen three times receive the same action-recognition label, so that supervision does not require a model to count. Answers shared across histories that differ in event order, accumulation, or relations leave those distinctions unconstrained; we call this state under-specification. Visible-State Supervision (ViSS) addresses it by training on source-grounded probes of event identity, order, accumulation, relation change, and answer sufficiency; under the same recent-frame interface it improves OVO-Bench over a strict-matched generic temporal supervision baseline while remaining comparable on StreamingBench, with the largest gain in hallucination detection. Test-Time Causal View Search (TVS) then adapts evidence access while keeping the learned model fixed, expanding from recent frames to sparse event and compact history views on demand. The two interventions separate representation from view selection: supervision particularly benefits hallucination detection and causal reasoning, access particularly benefits event recall and forward reasoning. Together they reach the best reported accuracy among the published systems compared here on StreamingBench and OVO-Bench at a fraction of the processed frames of exhaustive selection, and strict replay shows that most of the remaining gap to a three-view oracle is a correct answer that was later replaced. Streaming accuracy depends on what supervision asks the model to keep, what evidence inference exposes, and whether the model keeps a correct answer once it has one.

Training a spatial VLM to answer which side an object lies on does not require it to preserve the metric displacement that determines that answer, while supervision for a distance estimate may leave categorical relations largely unconstrained. When post-training emphasizes one readout, improvements can therefore concentrate on that interface while transfer to others remains weak or even degrades; we call this observed specialization interface lock-in. ChronoReplay addresses it by replaying heterogeneous spatial supervision as chronologically ordered episodes, retaining source-native targets, and balancing supervision across families. Under the same observation access, a single ChronoReplay checkpoint improves OVO-S-Bench, OST-Bench, and UCS-Bench together, including a 13.41-point gain on OST-Bench, and achieves the highest three-benchmark mean among the supervision settings compared here. Same-data controls further separate the ingredients of this transfer: answer serialization redistributes gains across OST and UCS, family-balanced learning improves over ordinary joint SFT and natural turn weighting, and chronological replay exceeds a shifted-order control by about 2.41 OST points across two paired seeds. Adaptive frame selection then changes evidence access while keeping the trained model fixed, providing an additional inference-time gain at lower visual cost. Streaming spatial performance depends on what distinctions supervision preserves, how heterogeneous histories are organized during learning, and what causal evidence inference makes available at test time.

Efficient long-video understanding requires vision--language models (VLMs) to reason over a small number of frames selected as sparse visual evidence. Existing relevance-based methods rely on static one-shot selection with fixed frame budgets and candidate pools, while agent-based schedulers achieve adaptivity through costly multi-round reasoning and interactive search. We propose EcoFrame, a training-free framework for low-overhead query-adaptive visual evidence scheduling. EcoFrame leverages the VLM's inference feedback to determine when to increase the frame budget and where to search for additional candidate evidence. Specifically, entropy-gated budget scheduling uses output uncertainty to stop early when the current evidence is sufficient or progressively expand the frame budget otherwise. Meanwhile, attention-guided candidate proposal converts frame-level attention into a temporal prior, enabling dense local search in informative regions while preserving global coverage when attention is diffuse. Experiments on Video-MME, LongVideoBench, and MLVU demonstrate that EcoFrame achieves a better accuracy--efficiency trade-off across multiple VLM backbones. On Qwen2.5-VL, EcoFrame achieves an average accuracy of 64.4, surpassing BOLT at 63.5, while providing a 1.85times speedup over AKS and BOLT. Compared with the agent-based A.I.R., EcoFrame maintains comparable accuracy with up to a 13.5times inference speedup. Code will be available at https://github.com/AK-DREAM/EcoFrame.

Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) integrate strong text reasoning with visual inputs, yet their responses can be inconsistent with the underlying images, indicating ineffective utilization of visual evidence during inference. The prevailing training paradigm relies on large-scale caption-based pretraining for general alignment, followed by supervised fine-tuning and reinforcement learning to enable instruction following and complex reasoning. However, such pretraining provides only weak visual grounding: short, coarse captions bias models toward salient objects while neglecting fine-grained visual evidence. In this paper, we introduce Visual Evidence Pre-Alignment (VEPA), an intermediate stage between pretraining and post-training that explores a novel sufficiency-driven objective with Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) to optimize question-conditioned visual evidence descriptions. Extensive experiments across diverse benchmarks show that our VEPA consistently enhances performance on visually demanding evaluations and complements standard supervised post-training. Further analyses show that the income stems from strengthened, transferable visual grounding, rather than from additional task-specific training.

A central puzzle for the behavioural sciences and for human-facing artificial intelligence is the persistence of within-person variability. The same individual, presented with the same observable input, produces different outcomes on different occasions, and different individuals produce divergent outcomes that no observable covariate fully predicts. We argue that this variability belongs in the dynamic latent state of the person, and that human outcomes are controllable in a precise and operational sense through interventions that target the state and its weighting at the moment a decision is being formed. We define a state as the time-indexed weighting vector over the dimensions that govern how an individual's biology, physiology, and neuropsychology process the next event into a decision and an outcome. The relationship between state, decision, and outcome is causal rather than correlational. The weighting vector is dynamic at sub-daily timescales. The conscious channel through which outcomes are reportable is a narrow attentional bottleneck whose contents are themselves state-dependent. Taken together, these claims imply that the outcome of a given event is controllable, conditionally, on the state-trajectory at the time of intervention. We motivate the framework with six strands of established evidence (causal inference, predictive processing, allostasis, attentional bottleneck, chronobiology, computational psychiatry) and a 24-month observational base from a deployed behavioural platform spanning more than 200,000 consented users across four occupational personas (research period 2023 to 2026). We derive seven testable predictions, list six operational requirements for state-aware systems, and discuss implications for digital health, education, AI personalisation, and personal agency.

Image and video generators can produce spatially consistent visual content, but how to use this capability to improve spatial understanding remains underexplored. We study this problem from two perspectives: geometric supervision during training and explicit geometric evidence during inference. To this end, we introduce a unified geometric understanding and generation model (GeoUG) that integrates depth and multi-view generation with spatial understanding. First, we design a multi-scale depth codec that enables metric-depth generation using a pretrained visual autoencoder, and show that joint training yields task-dependent gains in spatial understanding. Second, we introduce 3DCueBench to control geometric difficulty while balancing selected 2D cues, and find that generated depth provides larger reasoning gains on questions requiring fine-grained geometric discrimination. Building on this finding, we develop adaptive interleaved reasoning, in which GeoUG first drafts an answer and then decides whether to generate geometric evidence to confirm or revise it. We train this decision through reinforcement learning, balancing accuracy gains over retaining the draft against generation cost. GeoUG achieves circular accuracies of 97.9%, 90.8%, and 94.2% on CV-Bench-3D, 3DCueBench, and DA-2K with fewer generation calls than always generating.

Large Vision-Language Models (VLMs) often exhibit text inertia, where attention drifts from visual evidence toward linguistic priors, resulting in object hallucinations. Existing decoding strategies intervene only at the output logits and thus cannot correct internal reasoning drift, while recent internal-control methods based on heuristic head suppression or global steering vectors lack principled grounding. We introduce Conscious Gaze (CG-VLM), a training-free, inference-time framework that converts game-theoretic interpretability into actionable decoding control. A Cognitive Demand Sensor built on Harsanyi interactions estimates instantaneous vision-text synergy and identifies moments when visual grounding is necessary. Conditioned on this signal, a Focused Consensus Induction module selectively reorients mid-layer attention toward visual tokens before collapse into text priors. CG-VLM achieves state-of-the-art results on POPE and CHAIR across InstructBLIP, LLaVA, Qwen-VL, and mPLUG, while preserving general capabilities, demonstrating that token-level sensing enables precise, context-aware intervention without compromising foundational knowledge.

As language models shift from single-shot answer generation toward multi-step reasoning that retrieves and consumes evidence mid-inference, evaluating the role of individual retrieved items becomes more important. Existing RAG evaluation typically targets final-answer quality, citation faithfulness, or answer-level attribution, but none of these directly targets the intervention-based, per-evidence-item utility view we study here. We introduce CUE-R, a lightweight intervention-based framework for measuring per-evidence-item operational utility in single-shot RAG using shallow observable retrieval-use traces. CUE-R perturbs individual evidence items via REMOVE, REPLACE, and DUPLICATE operators, then measures changes along three utility axes (correctness, proxy-based grounding faithfulness, and confidence error) plus a trace-divergence signal. We also outline an operational evidence-role taxonomy for interpreting intervention outcomes. Experiments on HotpotQA and 2WikiMultihopQA with Qwen-3 8B and GPT-5.2 reveal a consistent pattern: REMOVE and REPLACE substantially harm correctness and grounding while producing large trace shifts, whereas DUPLICATE is often answer-redundant yet not fully behaviorally neutral. A zero-retrieval control confirms that these effects arise from degradation of meaningful retrieval. A two-support ablation further shows that multi-hop evidence items can interact non-additively: removing both supports harms performance far more than either single removal. Our results suggest that answer-only evaluation misses important evidence effects and that intervention-based utility analysis is a practical complement for RAG evaluation.

Agent memory has been touted as a dimension of growth for LLM-based applications, enabling agents that can accumulate experience, adapt across sessions, and move beyond single-shot question answering. The current generation of agent memory systems treats memory as an external layer that extracts salient snippets from conversations, stores them in vector or graph-based stores, and retrieves top-k items into the prompt of an otherwise stateless model. While these systems improve personalization and context carry-over, they still blur the line between evidence and inference, struggle to organize information over long horizons, and offer limited support for agents that must explain their reasoning. We present Hindsight, a memory architecture that treats agent memory as a structured, first-class substrate for reasoning by organizing it into four logical networks that distinguish world facts, agent experiences, synthesized entity summaries, and evolving beliefs. This framework supports three core operations -- retain, recall, and reflect -- that govern how information is added, accessed, and updated. Under this abstraction, a temporal, entity aware memory layer incrementally turns conversational streams into a structured, queryable memory bank, while a reflection layer reasons over this bank to produce answers and to update information in a traceable way. On key long-horizon conversational memory benchmarks like LongMemEval and LoCoMo, Hindsight with an open-source 20B model lifts overall accuracy from 39% to 83.6% over a full-context baseline with the same backbone and outperforms full context GPT-4o. Scaling the backbone further pushes Hindsight to 91.4% on LongMemEval and up to 89.61% on LoCoMo (vs. 75.78% for the strongest prior open system), consistently outperforming existing memory architectures on multi-session and open-domain questions.

While Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) excel on benchmarks, their processing paradigm differs from the human ability to integrate visual information. Unlike humans who naturally bridge details and high-level concepts, models tend to treat these elements in isolation. Prevailing evaluation protocols often decouple low-level perception from high-level reasoning, overlooking their semantic and causal dependencies, which yields non-diagnostic results and obscures performance bottlenecks. We present VCU-Bridge, a framework that operationalizes a human-like hierarchy of visual connotation understanding: multi-level reasoning that advances from foundational perception through semantic bridging to abstract connotation, with an explicit evidence-to-inference trace from concrete cues to abstract conclusions. Building on this framework, we construct HVCU-Bench, a benchmark for hierarchical visual connotation understanding with explicit, level-wise diagnostics. Comprehensive experiments demonstrate a consistent decline in performance as reasoning progresses to higher levels. We further develop a data generation pipeline for instruction tuning guided by Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) and show that strengthening low-level capabilities yields measurable gains at higher levels. Interestingly, it not only improves on HVCU-Bench but also brings benefits on general benchmarks (average +2.53%), especially with substantial gains on MMStar (+7.26%), demonstrating the significance of the hierarchical thinking pattern and its effectiveness in enhancing MLLM capabilities. The project page is at https://vcu-bridge.github.io .

Planning effective interventions in biological systems requires treatment-effect models that adapt to unseen biological contexts by identifying their specific underlying mechanisms. Yet single-cell perturbation datasets span only a handful of biological contexts, and existing methods cannot leverage new interventional evidence at inference time to adapt beyond their training data. To meta-learn a perturbation effect estimator, we present MapPFN, a prior-data fitted network (PFN) pretrained on synthetic data generated from a prior over causal perturbations. Given a set of experiments, MapPFN uses in-context learning to predict post-perturbation distributions, without gradient-based optimization. Despite being pretrained on in silico gene knockouts alone, MapPFN identifies differentially expressed genes, matching the performance of models trained on real single-cell data. Our code and data are available at https://github.com/marvinsxtr/MapPFN.

Reusable skills have become a core substrate for improving agent capabilities, yet most existing skill packages encode reusable behavior primarily as textual prompts, executable code, or learned routines. For visual agents, however, procedural knowledge is inherently multimodal: reuse depends not only on what operation to perform, but also on recognizing the relevant state, interpreting visual evidence of progress or failure, and deciding what to do next. We formalize this requirement as multimodal procedural knowledge and address three practical challenges: (I) what a multimodal skill package should contain; (II) where such packages can be derived from public interaction experience; and (III) how agents can consult multimodal evidence at inference time without excessive image context or over-anchoring to reference screenshots. We introduce MMSkills, a framework for representing, generating, and using reusable multimodal procedures for runtime visual decision making. Each MMSkill is a compact, state-conditioned package that couples a textual procedure with runtime state cards and multi-view keyframes. To construct these packages, we develop an agentic trajectory-to-skill Generator that transforms public non-evaluation trajectories into reusable multimodal skills through workflow grouping, procedure induction, visual grounding, and meta-skill-guided auditing. To use them, we introduce a branch-loaded multimodal skill agent: selected state cards and keyframes are inspected in a temporary branch, aligned with the live environment, and distilled into structured guidance for the main agent. Experiments across GUI and game-based visual-agent benchmarks show that MMSkills consistently improve both frontier and smaller multimodal agents, suggesting that external multimodal procedural knowledge complements model-internal priors.

Vision-language models typically reason over post-ISP RGB images, although RGB rendering can clip, suppress, or quantize sensor evidence before inference. We study whether grounding improves when the visual interface is moved closer to the underlying camera measurement. We formulate measurement-grounded vision-language learning and instantiate it as PRISM-VL, which combines RAW-derived Meas.-XYZ inputs, camera-conditioned grounding, and Exposure-Bracketed Supervision Aggregation for transferring supervision from RGB proxies to measurement-domain observations. Using a quality-controlled 150K instruction-tuning set and a held-out benchmark targeting low-light, HDR, visibility-sensitive, and hallucination-sensitive cases, PRISM-VL-8B reaches 0.6120 BLEU, 0.4571 ROUGE-L, and 82.66\% LLM-Judge accuracy, improving over the RGB Qwen3-VL-8B baseline by +0.1074 BLEU, +0.1071 ROUGE-L, and +4.46 percentage points. These results suggest that part of VLM grounding error arises from information lost during RGB rendering, and that preserving measurement-domain evidence can improve multimodal reasoning.

Reasoning over text-attributed graphs (TAGs) requires large language models (LLMs) to combine a node's text with evidence distributed across its neighbourhood. Existing methods fix the set of accessible neighbours before generation, forcing reasoning to operate over a static context and preventing the model from acquiring missing evidence during inference. We argue that neighbour selection should itself be part of the reasoning process. To this end, we propose Call Neighbours Yourself (CNY), a framework that enables LLMs to proactively explore graph neighbourhoods through topology-constrained graph-walk actions. Instead of reasoning over a pre-selected neighbour set, CNY exposes lightweight neighbour previews and learns when to expand candidate neighbours for additional evidence. To address the delayed-credit challenge of neighbour exploration, we introduce destination-conditioned on-policy self-distillation, which retrospectively evaluates a selected neighbour after its content is revealed and converts the resulting change in action preference into an action-level training signal. Experiments on standard TAG reasoning benchmarks under a unified raw-text setting show that CNY consistently outperforms fixed-context post-training baselines. Furthermore, the learned exploration policy transfers to unseen graphs and to a graph-level task not encountered during training. Code is available at https://github.com/superallen13/CNY.

This paper describes the results of SemEval 2023 task 7 -- Multi-Evidence Natural Language Inference for Clinical Trial Data (NLI4CT) -- consisting of 2 tasks, a Natural Language Inference (NLI) task, and an evidence selection task on clinical trial data. The proposed challenges require multi-hop biomedical and numerical reasoning, which are of significant importance to the development of systems capable of large-scale interpretation and retrieval of medical evidence, to provide personalized evidence-based care. Task 1, the entailment task, received 643 submissions from 40 participants, and Task 2, the evidence selection task, received 364 submissions from 23 participants. The tasks are challenging, with the majority of submitted systems failing to significantly outperform the majority class baseline on the entailment task, and we observe significantly better performance on the evidence selection task than on the entailment task. Increasing the number of model parameters leads to a direct increase in performance, far more significant than the effect of biomedical pre-training. Future works could explore the limitations of large models for generalization and numerical inference, and investigate methods to augment clinical datasets to allow for more rigorous testing and to facilitate fine-tuning. We envisage that the dataset, models, and results of this task will be useful to the biomedical NLI and evidence retrieval communities. The dataset, competition leaderboard, and website are publicly available.

We consider the problem of performing Bayesian inference in probabilistic models where observations are accompanied by uncertainty, referred to as "uncertain evidence." We explore how to interpret uncertain evidence, and by extension the importance of proper interpretation as it pertains to inference about latent variables. We consider a recently-proposed method "distributional evidence" as well as revisit two older methods: Jeffrey's rule and virtual evidence. We devise guidelines on how to account for uncertain evidence and we provide new insights, particularly regarding consistency. To showcase the impact of different interpretations of the same uncertain evidence, we carry out experiments in which one interpretation is defined as "correct." We then compare inference results from each different interpretation illustrating the importance of careful consideration of uncertain evidence.

Context compression improves long-context efficiency but may introduce faithfulness issues through an information bottleneck. Existing evaluations rely on QA metrics, but a reader can still answer correctly from an unfaithful compression, so these metrics underestimate such loss. To bridge this gap, we introduce KEEP-Bench, a diagnostic benchmark that directly assesses compression faithfulness with 4,102 cases across three challenging settings that require keeping evidence for plausible reference resolutions, explicit qualifiers, and minority perspectives. Experiments show that even with tailored prompting, the strongest models remain unreliable: despite context windows exceeding 100K tokens and inputs averaging only 3.1K tokens, the best open-weight model (31B) preserves all required evidence in only 66.8% of cases, and the best proprietary model in only 61.6%. Performance also varies sharply across evidence structures, so conclusions from limited structures may be biased. We further introduce a metric, Evidence Preservation Return (EPR), to relate evidence recall to inference FLOPs, and find that it peaks at moderate scales (4B-8B), where recall remains low. Additional output budget mainly benefits already strong models and widens capability gaps, yet the stronger preservation of these models comes at a steep computational cost. These findings highlight the importance for future work to investigate compressors with strong information preservation under a small computation budget, rather than relying on a large output budget or model scaling.

Planetary geology relies on historical, interpretive reasoning to reconstruct past events from diverse observations. Here, we present a step toward an automated "machine intelligence geologist" by embedding this distinct methodology of geologic knowledge discovery and inference into a multimodal vision-language architecture. Focusing on the stratigraphy of lunar basaltic mare volcanism, we train a model to generate verifiably grounded geologic interpretations directly from co-registered topographic, spectral, and geologic maps. We demonstrate that while the system successfully balances established geological priors with local visual evidence to accurately describe stratigraphy and terrain, numeric age dating derived solely from vision defaults to memorized priors. Integrating an open-book retrieval mechanism resolves this, enabling the model to faithfully cite published chronologies. Our findings delineate the necessary architecture for automated geologic inference: site evidence must be visually interpreted from local data, while quantitative historical context must be retrieved from the scientific record.

Long-horizon agents often compress interaction histories into write-time summaries. This creates a fundamental write-before-query barrier: compression decisions are made before the system knows what a future query will hinge on. As a result, summaries can cause unverifiable omissions -- decisive constraints (e.g., allergies) may be dropped, leaving the agent unable to justify an answer with traceable evidence. Retaining raw logs restores an authoritative source of truth, but grounding on raw logs by default is expensive: many queries are answerable from summaries, yet raw grounding still requires processing far longer contexts, inflating token consumption and latency. We propose TierMem, a provenance-linked framework that casts retrieval as an inference-time evidence allocation problem. TierMem uses a two-tier memory hierarchy to answer with the cheapest sufficient evidence: it queries a fast summary index by default, and a runtime sufficiency router Escalates to an immutable raw-log store only when summary evidence is insufficient. TierMem then writes back verified findings as new summary units linked to their raw sources. On LoCoMo, TierMem achieves 0.851 accuracy (vs.0.873 raw-only) while reducing input tokens by 54.1\% and latency by 60.7%.

Knowledge graphs enable a wide variety of applications, including question answering and information retrieval. Despite the great effort invested in their creation and maintenance, even the largest (e.g., Yago, DBPedia or Wikidata) remain incomplete. We introduce Relational Graph Convolutional Networks (R-GCNs) and apply them to two standard knowledge base completion tasks: Link prediction (recovery of missing facts, i.e. subject-predicate-object triples) and entity classification (recovery of missing entity attributes). R-GCNs are related to a recent class of neural networks operating on graphs, and are developed specifically to deal with the highly multi-relational data characteristic of realistic knowledge bases. We demonstrate the effectiveness of R-GCNs as a stand-alone model for entity classification. We further show that factorization models for link prediction such as DistMult can be significantly improved by enriching them with an encoder model to accumulate evidence over multiple inference steps in the relational graph, demonstrating a large improvement of 29.8% on FB15k-237 over a decoder-only baseline.

Reliable epidemiological reasoning requires synthesizing study evidence to infer disease burden, transmission dynamics, and intervention effects at the population level. Existing medical question answering benchmarks primarily emphasize clinical knowledge or patient-level reasoning, yet few systematically evaluate evidence-grounded epidemiological inference. We present EpiQAL, the first diagnostic benchmark for epidemiological question answering across diverse diseases, comprising three subsets built from open-access literature. The subsets respectively evaluate text-grounded factual recall, multi-step inference linking document evidence with epidemiological principles, and conclusion reconstruction with the Discussion section withheld. Construction combines expert-designed taxonomy guidance, multi-model verification, and retrieval-based difficulty control. Experiments on ten open models reveal that current LLMs show limited performance on epidemiological reasoning, with multi-step inference posing the greatest challenge. Model rankings shift across subsets, and scale alone does not predict success. Chain-of-Thought prompting benefits multi-step inference but yields mixed results elsewhere. EpiQAL provides fine-grained diagnostic signals for evidence grounding, inferential reasoning, and conclusion reconstruction.

Despite recent progress, LLM agents still struggle with reasoning over long interaction histories. While current memory-augmented agents rely on a static retrieve-then-reason paradigm, this rigid pipeline design prevents them from dynamically adapting memory access to intermediate evidence discovered during inference. To bridge this gap, we propose MRAgent, a framework that combines an associative memory graph with an active reconstruction mechanism. We represent memory as a Cue-Tag-Content graph, where associative tags serve as semantic bridges connecting fine-grained cues to memory contents. Operating on this structure, our active reconstruction mechanism integrates LLM reasoning directly into memory access, allowing the agent to iteratively explore and prune retrieval paths based on accumulated evidence. This ensures that memory retrieval is dynamically adapted to the reasoning context while avoiding combinatorial explosion caused by unconstrained expansion. Experiments on the LoCoMo benchmark and LongMemEval benchmark demonstrate significant improvements over strong baselines (up to 23%), while substantially reducing token and runtime cost, highlighting the effectiveness of active and associative reconstruction for long-horizon memory reasoning.

Unlike most reinforcement learning agents which require an unrealistic amount of environment interactions to learn a new behaviour, humans excel at learning quickly by merely observing and imitating others. This ability highly depends on the fact that humans have a model of their own embodiment that allows them to infer the most likely actions that led to the observed behaviour. In this paper, we propose Action Inference by Maximising Evidence (AIME) to replicate this behaviour using world models. AIME consists of two distinct phases. In the first phase, the agent learns a world model from its past experience to understand its own body by maximising the ELBO. While in the second phase, the agent is given some observation-only demonstrations of an expert performing a novel task and tries to imitate the expert's behaviour. AIME achieves this by defining a policy as an inference model and maximising the evidence of the demonstration under the policy and world model. Our method is "zero-shot" in the sense that it does not require further training for the world model or online interactions with the environment after given the demonstration. We empirically validate the zero-shot imitation performance of our method on the Walker and Cheetah embodiment of the DeepMind Control Suite and find it outperforms the state-of-the-art baselines. Code is available at: https://github.com/argmax-ai/aime.

Third-party LLM gateways have become a critical infrastructure layer between applications and external LLM providers. Conventional gateways do more than forward traffic: they decide which provider and model are called, whether fallback occurred, which stream is delivered, and what usage record should be billed. Because these decisions and records are authored inside the operator-controlled service, clients cannot independently distinguish honest mediation from route substitution, hidden fallback, stream manipulation, or forged provenance. We present an evidence-bound LLM gateway architecture that separates the operator control plane from an attested execution plane. Within the gateway, a measured Attested Gateway Runtime (AGR) is the only component allowed to decrypt requests, enforce path policy, construct upstream calls, and sign evidence. Clients verify signed release metadata and fresh attestation before encrypting requests to keys bound to the AGR measurement. AGR enforces request-scoped routing, fallback, and endpoint constraints, invokes admitted providers, returns encrypted response streams, and signs evidence binding the policy, selected route, endpoint identity, stream commitments, and completion metadata to the attested runtime. An initial Rust prototype on AWS Nitro Enclaves shows modest mechanism overhead and fail-closed detection of policy, routing, endpoint, and stream-evidence tampering outside the attested runtime.

Large vision-language models (LVLMs) have rapidly advanced across various domains, yet they still lag behind strong text-only large language models (LLMs) on tasks that require multi-step inference and compositional decision-making. Motivated by their shared transformer architectures, we investigate whether the two model families rely on common internal computation for such inference. At the neuron level, we uncover a surprisingly large overlap: more than half of the top-activated units during multi-step inference are shared between representative LLMs and LVLMs, revealing a modality-invariant inference subspace. Through causal probing via activation amplification, we further show that these shared neurons encode consistent and interpretable concept-level effects, demonstrating their functional contribution to inference. Building on this insight, we propose Shared Neuron Low-Rank Fusion (SNRF), a parameter-efficient framework that transfers mature inference circuitry from LLMs to LVLMs. SNRF profiles cross-model activations to identify shared neurons, computes a low-rank approximation of inter-model weight differences, and injects these updates selectively within the shared-neuron subspace. This mechanism strengthens multimodal inference performance with minimal parameter changes and requires no large-scale multimodal fine-tuning. Across diverse mathematics and perception benchmarks, SNRF consistently enhances LVLM inference performance while preserving perceptual capabilities. Our results demonstrate that shared neurons form an interpretable bridge between LLMs and LVLMs, enabling low-cost transfer of inference ability into multimodal models. Our code is available at [https://github.com/chenhangcuisg-code/Do-LLMs-VLMs-Share-Neurons](https://github.com/chenhangcuisg-code/Do-LLMs-VLMs-Share-Neurons).

Recently, large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated outstanding reasoning capabilities on mathematical and coding tasks. However, their application to financial tasks-especially the most fundamental task of stock movement prediction-remains underexplored. We study a three-class classification problem (up, hold, down) and, by analyzing existing reasoning responses, observe that: (1) LLMs follow analysts' opinions rather than exhibit a systematic, independent analytical logic (CoTs). (2) LLMs list summaries from different sources without weighing adversarial evidence, yet such counterevidence is crucial for reliable prediction. It shows that the model does not make good use of its reasoning ability to complete the task. To address this, we propose Reflective Evidence Tuning (RETuning), a cold-start method prior to reinforcement learning, to enhance prediction ability. While generating CoT, RETuning encourages dynamically constructing an analytical framework from diverse information sources, organizing and scoring evidence for price up or down based on that framework-rather than on contextual viewpoints-and finally reflecting to derive the prediction. This approach maximally aligns the model with its learned analytical framework, ensuring independent logical reasoning and reducing undue influence from context. We also build a large-scale dataset spanning all of 2024 for 5,123 A-share stocks, with long contexts (32K tokens) and over 200K samples. In addition to price and news, it incorporates analysts' opinions, quantitative reports, fundamental data, macroeconomic indicators, and similar stocks. Experiments show that RETuning successfully unlocks the model's reasoning ability in the financial domain. Inference-time scaling still works even after 6 months or on out-of-distribution stocks, since the models gain valuable insights about stock movement prediction.

Understanding long-form egocentric videos remains challenging for multimodal large language models (MLLMs) due to limited context length and insufficient grounding of fine-grained visual details. The recently proposed HD-EPIC benchmark highlights these limitations: even strong long-context models achieve relatively low performance across diverse video question answering tasks. In this paper, we propose a unified framework that decouples long-video reasoning into two complementary forms of evidence: semantic evidence and visual evidence. Semantic evidence captures global procedural structure through a coarse-to-fine extraction pipeline, while object-centric visual evidence preserves fine-grained grounding through bounding boxes and visual embeddings. During inference, we formulate reasoning as a query-conditioned evidence retrieval and integration process, dynamically selecting relevant information from both sources. Our approach achieves competitive performance in the HD-EPIC-VQA Challenge across multiple task categories. More broadly, our results demonstrate that explicitly structuring, retrieving, and integrating semantic and visual evidence is critical for effective long-video understanding with MLLMs.

Whole-slide images (WSIs) are challenging for vision-language reasoning because diagnostically relevant morphology is sparse, heterogeneous, and distributed across gigapixel-scale images and multiple spatial resolutions. Existing WSI models and pathology agents can aggregate slide features or actively acquire evidence, but the information retained after exploration is often difficult to access semantically while preserving its connection to the original visual evidence. We introduce SlideBank, a training-free framework that represents each WSI as a persistent, concept-indexed, and spatially grounded evidence bank. SlideBank performs question-independent coarse-to-fine exploration to identify informative regions and multi-scale views, converts them into explicit morphological observations, and grounds pathology signals to their supporting patches and WSI coordinates. At inference time, questions are routed to relevant signals and evidence scales, and the linked global, regional, and patch evidence is integrated through confidence-based cross-level consensus. Experiments on WSI-VQA and SlideBench-BCNB show that with Patho-R1, SlideBank reaches 52.77% on WSI-VQA and with Quilt-LLaVA, it reaches 50.92% average accuracy on SlideBench-BCNB, while structured signal-guided retrieval consistently outperforms random evidence sampling. Reusing the same bank across repeated queries further achieves over 99% rephrasing consistency and substantially reduces amortized inference cost through persistent evidence reuse.

Image Quality Assessment (IQA) in open-world environments remains challenging due to limited generalization and interpretability. Recent approaches based on multimodal large language models (MLLMs) introduce textual reasoning for quality prediction, yet their judgments rely heavily on semantically biased internal representations, making them insensitive to low-level perceptual degradations. We propose IQA-T1, a tool-based visual evidence reasoning framework that augments MLLM reasoning with explicit perceptual observations. During inference, the model autonomously invokes specialized analysis tools to generate structured visual evidence, such as noise residual maps, gradient statistics, and frequency spectra, which are progressively integrated into the reasoning process. To support this paradigm, we construct Q-Tool, a dataset containing 11k multimodal reasoning chains grounded in tool-generated evidence. Extensive experiments on seven IQA benchmarks show that IQA-T1 achieves the best overall performance across datasets while producing interpretable and evidence-grounded quality assessments. Code and dataset are available at https://github.com/zibuyu-02/IQA-T1.

Multi-hop QA benchmarks often reward Large Language Models (LLMs) for spurious correctness, where models reach correct answers through invalid intermediate reasoning. We propose SAFE, an LLM-as-verifier framework for evidence-grounded multi-hop QA. Rather than judging only the final answer after generation, SAFE verifies reasoning during generation by checking intermediate steps against the provided passages and previous reasoning trajectory. To make this process checkable, SAFE decomposes reasoning into atomic, evidence-grounded units represented with Knowledge Graph (KG) triples. At train-time, SAFE verifies benchmark supervision under KG-grounded constraints and constructs reliable verifier training data. At inference-time, an external verifier checks each generated step, identifies invalid reasoning, and provides correction feedback before errors propagate. Across three multi-hop QA benchmarks, SAFE improves accuracy by 8.8 pp on average. These results show that evidence-grounded multi-hop QA benefits from shifting LLM-based evaluation from post-hoc answer judgment to stepwise reasoning verification.

Synthesizing photorealistic driving videos along specified trajectories is essential for scalable closed-loop simulation. Reconstruction-based methods leverage neural rendering to synthesize geometrically consistent views, but often exhibit diverse artifacts and missing content when the viewpoint deviates from the training trajectory. In contrast, generative models can synthesize realistic views along arbitrary trajectories from vehicle sensor data, yet often struggle to maintain temporal and geometric consistency across frames. To combine the strengths of both, we propose PRG-Fusion, a framework for driving view synthesis that uses reconstruction evidence to orchestrate generative priors across regions. Specifically, we extract region-wise degradation evidence from reconstructed driving scenes and convert it into Preserve, Repair, and Generate (PRG) labels. At inference, these labels serve as a unified routing policy for region-aware spatiotemporal synthesis, orchestrating 3DGS appearance preservation, LiDAR-guided structural correction, and video-prior-driven content completion across Preserve, Repair, and Generate regions, respectively. We then follow a two-stage training paradigm, first establish geometric control from sparse LiDAR projections and subsequently learning appearance control from dense 3DGS renderings. Extensive experiments on Waymo demonstrate that PRG-Fusion achieves state-of-the-art overall performance in novel trajectory video synthesis, with superior visual quality and geometric fidelity while maintaining competitive view consistency under large trajectory shifts.

We address whether neural models for Natural Language Inference (NLI) can learn the compositional interactions between lexical entailment and negation, using four methods: the behavioral evaluation methods of (1) challenge test sets and (2) systematic generalization tasks, and the structural evaluation methods of (3) probes and (4) interventions. To facilitate this holistic evaluation, we present Monotonicity NLI (MoNLI), a new naturalistic dataset focused on lexical entailment and negation. In our behavioral evaluations, we find that models trained on general-purpose NLI datasets fail systematically on MoNLI examples containing negation, but that MoNLI fine-tuning addresses this failure. In our structural evaluations, we look for evidence that our top-performing BERT-based model has learned to implement the monotonicity algorithm behind MoNLI. Probes yield evidence consistent with this conclusion, and our intervention experiments bolster this, showing that the causal dynamics of the model mirror the causal dynamics of this algorithm on subsets of MoNLI. This suggests that the BERT model at least partially embeds a theory of lexical entailment and negation at an algorithmic level.

Large language models (LLMs) and agentic systems have shown promise for clinical decision support, but existing works largely assume that evidence has already been curated and handed to the model. Real-world clinical workflows instead require agents to actively seek, iteratively plan, and synthesize multimodal evidence from heterogeneous sources. In this paper, we introduce ClinSeekAgent, an automated agentic framework for dynamic multimodal evidence seeking that shifts the paradigm from passive evidence consumption to active evidence acquisition. Given only a clinical query and access to raw data sources, ClinSeekAgent gathers evidence by querying medical knowledge bases, navigating raw EHRs, and invoking medical imaging tools; refines its hypotheses as new information emerges; and integrates the collected evidence into grounded clinical decisions. ClinSeekAgent serves both as an inference-time agent for frontier LLMs and as a training-time pipeline for distilling high-quality agent trajectories into compact open-source models. To validate its inference-time effectiveness, we construct ClinSeek-Bench, which pairs Curated Input reasoning from fixed pre-selected evidence with Automated Evidence-Seeking over raw clinical data. On text-only EHR tasks, ClinSeekAgent improves Claude Opus 4.6 from 60.0 to 63.2 overall F1 and MiniMax M2.5 from 43.1 to 47.3, with positive risk-prediction gains in 7 out of 9 evaluated host models. On multimodal tasks, ClinSeekAgent improves Claude Opus 4.6 from 47.5 to 62.6 (+15.1); all evaluated models improve across the three CXR-related task groups. We further validate ClinSeekAgent as a training pipeline by distilling agentic evidence-seeking trajectories into ClinSeek-35B-A3B, which achieves 34.0 average F1 on existing AgentEHR-Bench, improving over its Qwen3.5-35B-A3B baseline by +11.9 points and approaching Claude Opus 4.6.

Understanding and reasoning over long contexts has become a key requirement for deploying large language models (LLMs) in realistic applications. Although recent LLMs support increasingly long context windows, they often fail to use relevant evidence that is already present in the input, revealing a gap between context access and effective context utilization. In this work, we propose Recursive Evidence Replay as LLM Harness for Long-Context Reasoning (RECONTEXT), a training-free inference method for improving long-context reasoning. RECONTEXT uses model-internal relevance signals to construct a query-conditioned evidence pool and replays it before final generation while preserving the full original context. This recursive selection process separates evidence organization from answer generation without training, external memory, or context pruning. We also provide a theoretical analysis based on associative memory, which characterizes the context as a memory store, the question as a retrieval cue, attention as cue-trace association, and replay as trace reactivation. Experiments on eight long-context datasets with 128K context length show that RECONTEXT consistently improves evidence utilization across Qwen3-4B, Qwen3-8B, and Llama3-8B, achieving the best average rank on all three backbones. Code is available at https://github.com/Yanjun-Zhao/ReContext.

Online Surgical Phase Recognition (SPR) models can reach high frame-wise accuracy, yet their predictions often lack temporal stability, fragmenting workflow understanding and reducing the reliability of downstream assistance. We show that this instability is not random noise but arises from two mechanisms: early misclassifications corrupt temporal feature states and propagate forward to form error cascades, and phase transitions follow evidence-accumulation dynamics whereas most online SPR systems rely on memoryless frame-wise decisions, making them sensitive to transient confidence fluctuations. We propose a unified Train-Inference-Evaluation framework that explicitly stabilizes temporal inference dynamics using model-agnostic, plug-and-play components. For training, the Temporal Error-Cascade (TEC) loss suppresses error onset and mitigates forward error propagation by stabilizing temporal feature evolution. For inference, the Evidence-Gated Transition Predictor (EGTP) enforces evidence-driven state transitions, allowing phase changes only when accumulated evidence exceeds a confidence boundary. For evaluation, we introduce the Temporal Fragmentation Index (TFI), a reliability-aware metric that quantifies instability-induced temporal disagreement beyond conventional frame-wise and token-based measures. Experiments on Cholec80 and AutoLaparo across three representative backbones show that the proposed framework substantially improves temporal stability and reduces prediction fragmentation, while maintaining or modestly improving frame-wise performance.

We study fact-level repair for multimodal generation, where a fluent output may contain specific facts that are not supported by the input. Existing inference-time repair methods often generate feedback by jointly conditioning on the input and the current output. This design has two limitations: hallucinated claims in the output can bias the model's interpretation of the input, and free-form feedback cannot be ranked or scheduled at the fact level. We present TIGER, an inference-time framework that redesigns feedback for localized repair. TIGER independently extracts an observation graph from the input and a claim graph from the current output, then assigns each claim a graph-conditioned risk score based on support and conflict. The model repairs selected high-risk claims while keeping the backbone frozen. We provide a convergence analysis showing that the expected total risk decreases geometrically to an explicit asymptotic bound under mild assumptions. Experiments across four cross-modal paths, including image-to-text, image+text-to-text, audio-to-text, and video-to-text, show that TIGER reduces unsupported content while preserving task quality. The gains hold across multiple backbones, and a CrisisFACTS case study suggests that the same repair mechanism can improve grounding in multi-source settings.

Conventional Japanese automatic speech recognition (ASR) is supervised by an orthographic transcript, although the same written form can correspond to different lexical readings realized in speech. Such utterances receive an identical target, so their reading distinction is absent from the supervision interface and cannot be recovered reliably by post-hoc text-only grapheme-to-phoneme conversion. We present Ruby-ASR, which refines the conventional target into a span-bound orthographic--lexical-reading sequence. Unlike separate full-sentence orthographic and phonological outputs, the ruby representation locally binds each written span to its realized reading and permits deterministic recovery of both views. We instantiate the target under subtitle-style and verbatim-style transcription conventions using a Qwen3-ASR backbone; a mora-level CTC objective provides auxiliary monotonic reading supervision. The experimental results across five Japanese benchmarks show that refining the recognition target can improve lexical-reading recovery without sacrificing readable orthographic transcription. We release the checkpoints and inference code.

Natural language inference (NLI) is an increasingly important task for natural language understanding, which requires one to infer whether a sentence entails another. However, the ability of NLI models to make pragmatic inferences remains understudied. We create an IMPlicature and PRESupposition diagnostic dataset (IMPPRES), consisting of >25k semiautomatically generated sentence pairs illustrating well-studied pragmatic inference types. We use IMPPRES to evaluate whether BERT, InferSent, and BOW NLI models trained on MultiNLI (Williams et al., 2018) learn to make pragmatic inferences. Although MultiNLI appears to contain very few pairs illustrating these inference types, we find that BERT learns to draw pragmatic inferences. It reliably treats scalar implicatures triggered by "some" as entailments. For some presupposition triggers like "only", BERT reliably recognizes the presupposition as an entailment, even when the trigger is embedded under an entailment canceling operator like negation. BOW and InferSent show weaker evidence of pragmatic reasoning. We conclude that NLI training encourages models to learn some, but not all, pragmatic inferences.

Large language models (LLMs) have achieved significant performance gains via scaling up model sizes and/or data. However, recent evidence suggests diminishing returns from such approaches, motivating scaling the computation spent at inference time. Existing inference-time scaling methods, usually with reward models, cast the task as a search problem, which tends to be vulnerable to reward hacking as a consequence of approximation errors in reward models. In this paper, we instead cast inference-time scaling as a probabilistic inference task and leverage sampling-based techniques to explore the typical set of the state distribution of a state-space model with an approximate likelihood, rather than optimize for its mode directly. We propose a novel inference-time scaling approach by adapting particle-based Monte Carlo methods to this task. Our empirical evaluation demonstrates that our methods have a 4-16x better scaling rate over our deterministic search counterparts on various challenging mathematical reasoning tasks. Using our approach, we show that Qwen2.5-Math-1.5B-Instruct can surpass GPT-4o accuracy in only 4 rollouts, while Qwen2.5-Math-7B-Instruct scales to o1 level accuracy in only 32 rollouts. Our work not only presents an effective method to inference-time scaling, but also connects the rich literature in probabilistic inference with inference-time scaling of LLMs to develop more robust algorithms in future work. Code and further information is available at https://probabilistic-inference-scaling.github.io.

Membership Inference Attacks (MIAs) have emerged as a valuable framework for evaluating privacy leakage by machine learning models. Score-based MIAs are distinguished, in particular, by their ability to exploit the confidence scores that the model generates for particular inputs. Existing score-based MIAs implicitly assume that the adversary has access to the target model's hyperparameters, which can be used to train the shadow models for the attack. In this work, we demonstrate that the knowledge of target hyperparameters is not a prerequisite for MIA in the transfer learning setting. Based on this, we propose a novel approach to select the hyperparameters for training the shadow models for MIA when the attacker has no prior knowledge about them by matching the output distributions of target and shadow models. We demonstrate that using the new approach yields hyperparameters that lead to an attack near indistinguishable in performance from an attack that uses target hyperparameters to train the shadow models. Furthermore, we study the empirical privacy risk of unaccounted use of training data for hyperparameter optimization (HPO) in differentially private (DP) transfer learning. We find no statistically significant evidence that performing HPO using training data would increase vulnerability to MIA.

From the invention of writing and the printing press, to television and social media, human history is punctuated by major innovations in communication technology, which fundamentally altered how ideas spread and reshaped our culture. Recent chatbots powered by generative artificial intelligence constitute a novel medium that encodes cultural patterns in their neural representations and disseminates them in conversations with hundreds of millions of people. Understanding whether these patterns transmit into human language, and ultimately shape human culture, is a fundamental question. While fully quantifying the causal impact of a chatbot like ChatGPT on human culture is very challenging, lexicographic shift in human spoken communication may offer an early indicator of such broad phenomenon. Here, we apply econometric causal inference techniques to 740,249 hours of human discourse from 360,445 YouTube academic talks and 771,591 conversational podcast episodes across multiple disciplines. We detect a measurable and abrupt increase in the use of words preferentially generated by ChatGPT, such as delve, comprehend, boast, swift, and meticulous, after its release. These findings suggest a scenario where machines, originally trained on human data and subsequently exhibiting their own cultural traits, can, in turn, measurably reshape human culture. This marks the beginning of a closed cultural feedback loop in which cultural traits circulate bidirectionally between humans and machines. Our results motivate further research into the evolution of human-machine culture, and raise concerns over the erosion of linguistic and cultural diversity, and the risks of scalable manipulation.

Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) has become a pivotal paradigm for Large Language Models (LLMs), yet current approaches struggle with visually rich documents by treating text and images as isolated retrieval targets. Existing methods relying solely on cosine similarity often fail to capture the semantic reinforcement provided by cross-modal alignment and layout-induced coherence. To address these limitations, we propose BayesRAG, a novel multimodal retrieval framework grounded in Bayesian inference and Dempster-Shafer evidence theory. Unlike traditional approaches that rank candidates strictly by similarity, BayesRAG models the intrinsic consistency of retrieved candidates across modalities as probabilistic evidence to refine retrieval confidence. Specifically, our method computes the posterior association probability for combinations of multimodal retrieval results, prioritizing text-image pairs that mutually corroborate each other in terms of both semantics and layout. Extensive experiments demonstrate that BayesRAG significantly outperforms state-of-the-art (SOTA) methods on challenging multimodal benchmarks. This study establishes a new paradigm for multimodal retrieval fusion that effectively resolves the isolation of heterogeneous modalities through an evidence fusion mechanism and enhances the robustness of retrieval outcomes. Our code is available at https://github.com/TioeAre/BayesRAG.

Foundation models have brought changes to the landscape of machine learning, demonstrating sparks of human-level intelligence across a diverse array of tasks. However, a gap persists in complex tasks such as causal inference, primarily due to challenges associated with intricate reasoning steps and high numerical precision requirements. In this work, we take a first step towards building causally-aware foundation models for treatment effect estimations. We propose a novel, theoretically justified method called Causal Inference with Attention (CInA), which utilizes multiple unlabeled datasets to perform self-supervised causal learning, and subsequently enables zero-shot causal inference on unseen tasks with new data. This is based on our theoretical results that demonstrate the primal-dual connection between optimal covariate balancing and self-attention, facilitating zero-shot causal inference through the final layer of a trained transformer-type architecture. We demonstrate empirically that CInA effectively generalizes to out-of-distribution datasets and various real-world datasets, matching or even surpassing traditional per-dataset methodologies. These results provide compelling evidence that our method has the potential to serve as a stepping stone for the development of causal foundation models.

We present extensive empirical evidence showing that current Bayesian simulation-based inference algorithms can produce computationally unfaithful posterior approximations. Our results show that all benchmarked algorithms -- (Sequential) Neural Posterior Estimation, (Sequential) Neural Ratio Estimation, Sequential Neural Likelihood and variants of Approximate Bayesian Computation -- can yield overconfident posterior approximations, which makes them unreliable for scientific use cases and falsificationist inquiry. Failing to address this issue may reduce the range of applicability of simulation-based inference. For this reason, we argue that research efforts should be made towards theoretical and methodological developments of conservative approximate inference algorithms and present research directions towards this objective. In this regard, we show empirical evidence that ensembling posterior surrogates provides more reliable approximations and mitigates the issue.

Cloud environments face frequent DDoS threats due to centralized resources and broad attack surfaces. Modern cloud-native DDoS attacks further evolve rapidly and often blend multi-vector strategies, creating an operational dilemma: defenders need wire-speed monitoring while also requiring explainable, auditable attribution for response. Existing rule-based and supervised-learning approaches typically output black-box scores or labels, provide limited evidence chains, and generalize poorly to unseen attack variants; meanwhile, high-quality labeled data is often difficult to obtain in cloud settings. We present Holmes (DDoS Detective), an LLM-based DDoS detection agent that reframes the model as a virtual SRE investigator rather than an end-to-end classifier. Holmes couples a funnel-like hierarchical workflow (counters/sFlow for continuous sensing and triage; PCAP evidence collection triggered only on anomaly windows) with an Evidence Pack abstraction that converts binary packets into compact, reproducible, high-signal structured evidence. On top of this evidence interface, Holmes enforces a structure-first investigation protocol and strict JSON/quotation constraints to produce machine-consumable reports with auditable evidence anchors. We evaluate Holmes on CICDDoS2019 reflection/amplification attacks and script-triggered flooding scenarios. Results show that Holmes produces attribution decisions grounded in salient evidence anchors across diverse attack families, and when errors occur, its audit logs make the failure source easy to localize, demonstrating the practicality of an LLM agent for cost-controlled and traceable DDoS investigation in cloud operations.

LLM search agents increasingly rely on tools at inference time, but their trajectories are often constrained by hard limits on both tool calls and generated tokens. Under such dual budgets, better answers require not only stronger models, but also explicit control over which search action should receive the next budget unit and when the accumulated evidence is sufficient to commit a final answer. We study this problem in multi-hop question answering (QA) and formulate it as two-stage inference-time budget control. At search time, our controller assigns each feasible action a task-level Value-of-Information (VOI) score, defined as an operational estimate of marginal task value per unit budget under the current search state and remaining dual budget, and uses this score to choose among retrieval, decomposition, and answer commitment. After search, a selective evidence-grounded finalizer compares the trajectory answer with a refined candidate and rewrites only when the residual error appears to be a low-risk answer-form error. Across four multi-hop QA benchmarks, three LLM backbones, and four budget levels, the method yields positive aggregate gains over four audited baselines under the same hard dual-budget protocol. Ablations show that search-time budget control, especially budget-dependent penalty, provides the main performance gain, while answer-time control helps mainly when the retrieval path is already adequate. These results suggest that inference-time budget control for LLM search agents should govern both how budget is spent during search and how the final answer is committed.

We present DEI: Diversity in Evolutionary Inference, a distributed Quality-Diversity (QD) search framework that assigns heterogeneous large language models (LLMs) as mutation operators across peer nodes communicating with non-blocking collective operations. Unlike homogeneous parallel search, which replicates a single model's inductive biases across all workers, DEI treats each LLM's distinct creative prior as a complementary source of behavioral novelty. Extending the Digital Red Queen framework with DEI, nodes share local optimal solutions at the end of each round to seed the next round's population. This creates cross-model adversarial pressure that drives robustness beyond intra-model self-play. Evaluated on the Core War domain, a competitive programming benchmark in which Redcode warrior programs battle inside a simulated machine, a four-node heterogeneous ensemble (GPT-5.4-mini, Claude Sonnet 4.6, GPT-5.2, and Claude Haiku 4.5) achieves 124 percent higher merged-archive QD-Score (45.90 vs. 20.46) and 28 percent higher coverage (80.6 percent vs. 63.0 percent of cells) than a single-node baseline at equal total LLM-call budget. The heterogeneous ensemble also outperforms an equally-budgeted homogeneous ensemble on QD-Score, coverage, and held-out solution generality across all four model families. These results provide the first empirical evidence that model diversity, not merely parallelism, is the key driver of gain in distributed LLM-based QD search.

Clinical prognosis requires integrating structured measurements, physiological waveforms, longitudinal history, and population context. We introduce PRISM (Population-Retrieved Inference for Structured Multimodal Prognosis), a multimodal language model that combines per-feature numerical tokenization, recency-weighted aggregation of longitudinal ECGs, and a dual-modality population memory bank. Retrieval operates in representation space: the model receives mean-pooled embeddings of similar training-cohort encounters, while no individual retrieved record enters the prompt. On the 1,443-task MDS-ED benchmark, PRISM achieves AUROCs of 86.2% for diagnosis, 93.1% for deterioration, 91.8% for ICU admission, and 92.8% for mortality. These results use a 96-hour pre-arrival window unavailable to reported baselines. With benchmark-window inputs only, PRISM reaches 0.8895 AUROC, compared with 0.8937 for UniPACT and 0.8889 for MDS-ED. A matched-input compact fusion model using the same five evidence streams and frozen encoders reaches 0.7652 AUROC, versus 0.9092 for PRISM. Replacing numerical EHR encoding with text serialization reduces AUROC by 3.66 points; removing pre-arrival history reduces it by 1.97 points; and zeroing retrieval reduces it by 0.99 points. Genuine retrieval outperforms random-neighbor retrieval by 0.97 macro-average points, although a paired task-level sign test does not establish a uniform advantage (p=0.067). On the external MC-MED cohort, supervised fine-tuning reaches 0.8611 AUROC, compared with 0.8227 for locally trained gradient boosting and 0.7841 for source-only PRISM. These results support structure-aware multimodal integration and supervised external adaptation.

A treatment may affect some individuals while leaving others unaffected. We study the reach of treatment effects by asking how large an unaffected covariate region could be. We develop efficient local randomization tests over nearest-neighbour regions to construct a finite-sample valid upper confidence bound for the size of the largest zero-effect region. A small bound provides evidence that treatment effects extend broadly across covariate values by ruling out large zero-effect regions. Under a general outcome model, we characterize how the size of the bound depends on the number of affected units, the size of their treatment effects, and the geometry of the true zero-effect set. We show that, when region size is measured as a sample fraction, the excess of the upper confidence bound over the true size decreases to zero at a minimax optimal rate up to a logarithmic factor. Numerical simulations assess the coverage, power and computational efficiency of our method. Applications to voter-turnout, HIV clinical-trial, and AI-assisted writing data illustrate how our method rules out large zero-effect regions across the covariates of interest.

We present EE-LLM, a framework for large-scale training and inference of early-exit large language models (LLMs). While recent works have shown preliminary evidence for the efficacy of early exiting in accelerating LLM inference, EE-LLM makes a foundational step towards scaling up early-exit LLMs by supporting their training and inference with massive 3D parallelism. Built upon Megatron-LM, EE-LLM implements a variety of algorithmic innovations and performance optimizations tailored to early exiting, including a lightweight method that facilitates backpropagation for the early-exit training objective with pipeline parallelism, techniques of leveraging idle resources in the original pipeline schedule for computation related to early-exit layers, and two approaches of early-exit inference that are compatible with KV caching for autoregressive generation. Our analytical and empirical study shows that EE-LLM achieves great training efficiency with negligible computational overhead compared to standard LLM training, as well as outstanding inference speedup without compromising output quality. To facilitate further research and adoption, we release EE-LLM at https://github.com/pan-x-c/EE-LLM.

Understanding how language supports emotion inference remains a topic of debate in emotion science. The present study investigated whether language-derived emotion-concept knowledge would causally support emotion inference by manipulating the language-specific knowledge representations in large language models. Using the prompt technique, 14 attributes of emotion concepts were found to be represented by distinct artificial neuron populations. By manipulating these attribute-related neurons, the majority of the emotion inference tasks showed performance deterioration compared to random manipulations. The attribute-specific performance deterioration was related to the importance of different attributes in human mental space. Our findings provide causal evidence in support of a language-based mechanism for emotion inference and highlight the contributions of emotion-concept knowledge.

The rise of large language models (LLMs) has significantly influenced the quality of information in decision-making systems, leading to the prevalence of AI-generated content and challenges in detecting misinformation and managing conflicting information, or "inter-evidence conflicts." This study introduces a method for generating diverse, validated evidence conflicts to simulate real-world misinformation scenarios. We evaluate conflict detection methods, including Natural Language Inference (NLI) models, factual consistency (FC) models, and LLMs, on these conflicts (RQ1) and analyze LLMs' conflict resolution behaviors (RQ2). Our key findings include: (1) NLI and LLM models exhibit high precision in detecting answer conflicts, though weaker models suffer from low recall; (2) FC models struggle with lexically similar answer conflicts, while NLI and LLM models handle these better; and (3) stronger models like GPT-4 show robust performance, especially with nuanced conflicts. For conflict resolution, LLMs often favor one piece of conflicting evidence without justification and rely on internal knowledge if they have prior beliefs.

This study quantifies the association between non-adherence to antipsychotic medications and adverse outcomes in individuals with schizophrenia. We frame the problem using survival analysis, focusing on the time to the earliest of several adverse events (early death, involuntary hospitalization, jail booking). We extend standard causal inference methods (T-learner, S-learner, nearest neighbor matching) to utilize various survival models to estimate individual and average treatment effects, where treatment corresponds to medication non-adherence. Analyses are repeated using different amounts of longitudinal information (3, 6, 9, and 12 months). Using data from Allegheny County in western Pennsylvania, we find strong evidence that non-adherence advances adverse outcomes by approximately 1 to 4 months. Ablation studies confirm that county-provided risk scores adjust for key confounders, as their removal amplifies the estimated effects. Subgroup analyses by medication formulation (injectable vs. oral) and medication type consistently show that non-adherence is associated with earlier adverse events. These findings highlight the clinical importance of adherence in delaying psychiatric crises and show that integrating survival analysis with causal inference tools can yield policy-relevant insights. We caution that although we apply causal inference, we only make associative claims and discuss assumptions needed for causal interpretation.

Public health reasoning requires population level inference grounded in scientific evidence, expert consensus, and safety constraints. However, it remains underexplored as a structured machine learning problem with limited supervised signals and benchmarks. We introduce GlobalHealthAtlas, a large scale multilingual dataset of 280,210 instances spanning 15 public health domains and 17 languages. We further propose a large language model (LLM) assisted construction and quality control pipeline with retrieval, deduplication, evidence grounding checks, and label validation to improve consistency at scale. Finally, we present a domain aligned evaluator distilled from high confidence judgments of diverse LLMs to assess outputs along six dimensions: Accuracy, Reasoning, Completeness, Consensus Alignment, Terminology Norms, and Insightfulness. Together, these contributions enable reproducible training and evaluation of LLMs for safety critical public health reasoning beyond conventional QA benchmarks. We publicly release project codebase, evaluator, and model at:: https://github.com/Jan8217/GlobalHealthAtlas, https://huggingface.co/aerovane0/GlobalHealthAtlas_Public_Evaluator and https://huggingface.co/aerovane0/GlobalHealthAtlas_Public_Model

Long-context inference remains challenging for large language models due to attention dilution and out-of-distribution degradation. Context selection mitigates this limitation by attending to a subset of key-value cache entries, yet most methods allocate a fixed context budget throughout decoding despite highly non-uniform token-level contextual demands. To address this issue, we propose Uncertainty-Triggered Adaptive Context Allocation (UT-ACA), an inference-time framework that dynamically adjusts the context window based on token-wise uncertainty. UT-ACA learns an uncertainty detector that combines semantic embeddings with logit-based confidence while accounting for uncertainty accumulation across decoding steps. When insufficient evidence is indicated, UT-ACA selectively rolls back, expands the context window, and regenerates the token with additional support. Experiments show that UT-ACA substantially reduces average context usage while preserving generation quality in long-context settings.

Multi-robot systems (MRS) offer significant advantages over single-robot platforms by enabling information sharing and coordination for different tasks in complex environments. However, reliable cooperation critically depends on inferring trust over both information sources and their reported hypotheses, particularly under partial observability and potential adversarial interference. Existing approaches frequently depend on pre-established trust relationships or side-channel information, which may not be available or reliable in realistic MRS deployments. This work introduces NeST-Bayes, a neural-symbolic framework that jointly infers robot and hypothesis trust using only inter-robot observation consistency, without requiring preassigned robot trust, reputation information, or side-channel identity signals. NeST-Bayes infers instantaneous trust evidence scores for robots and object hypotheses by reasoning over ego-centric relational graphs constructed from cross-robot observation consistency. These evidence scores are accumulated over time through Bayesian updates of Beta-distributed trust beliefs to maintain temporally consistent trust estimates. Extensive evaluations show that NeST-Bayes achieves the highest mean object precision and robot recall across all benchmark settings, and the highest robot precision and object recall in most settings, compared to trust-based methods. Under aggressive optimized attacks, it achieves 98.8\% robot precision with 93.8\% recall and 98.3\% object precision with 95.4\% recall. In an occlusion-rich Webots warehouse, it maintains 92.5\% robot precision with 92.0\% recall and 97.3\% object precision with 85.0\% recall. These results demonstrate joint improvements in the reliability and coverage of retained information.

Omnimodal large language models (Omni-LLMs) encode audio and visual streams into temporally interleaved token sequences for multimodal reasoning. However, processing long audio-visual token sequences incurs substantial prefill costs. Existing compression methods have made progress, but often overlook temporal changes in audio-visual semantic relevance. Motivated by temporal variation and local continuity, we propose OmniRoute, a training-free, two-stage compression framework. First, Temporal Evidence-Guided Budgeting (TEGB) derives chunk-wise modality preferences and initial leading-modality budgets from semantic relevance and local content variation. Second, Budget-Constrained Semantic Compression (BCSC) compresses the leading modality and then calibrates the follower's retention target using the actual retained fraction. For video, it combines spatiotemporal grouping with query-guided selection; for audio, it selects tokens based on encoder attention and query relevance, then merges residual tokens into context anchors under visual guidance. Experiments on four representative benchmarks demonstrate a better trade-off between inference efficiency and performance than competitive baselines. The code and interface will be released to facilitate further research.

A membership inference attack (MIA) against a machine-learning model enables an attacker to determine whether a given data record was part of the model's training data or not. In this paper, we provide an in-depth study of the phenomenon of disparate vulnerability against MIAs: unequal success rate of MIAs against different population subgroups. We first establish necessary and sufficient conditions for MIAs to be prevented, both on average and for population subgroups, using a notion of distributional generalization. Second, we derive connections of disparate vulnerability to algorithmic fairness and to differential privacy. We show that fairness can only prevent disparate vulnerability against limited classes of adversaries. Differential privacy bounds disparate vulnerability but can significantly reduce the accuracy of the model. We show that estimating disparate vulnerability to MIAs by na\"ively applying existing attacks can lead to overestimation. We then establish which attacks are suitable for estimating disparate vulnerability, and provide a statistical framework for doing so reliably. We conduct experiments on synthetic and real-world data finding statistically significant evidence of disparate vulnerability in realistic settings. The code is available at https://github.com/spring-epfl/disparate-vulnerability

Speech produced by human vocal apparatus conveys substantial non-semantic information including the gender of the speaker, voice quality, affective state, abnormalities in the vocal apparatus etc. Such information is attributed to the properties of the voice source signal, which is usually estimated from the speech signal. However, most of the source estimation techniques depend heavily on the goodness of the model assumptions and are prone to noise. A popular alternative is to indirectly obtain the source information through the Electroglottographic (EGG) signal that measures the electrical admittance around the vocal folds using dedicated hardware. In this paper, we address the problem of estimating the EGG signal directly from the speech signal, devoid of any hardware. Sampling from the intractable conditional distribution of the EGG signal given the speech signal is accomplished through optimization of an evidence lower bound. This is constructed via minimization of the KL-divergence between the true and the approximated posteriors of a latent variable learned using a deep neural auto-encoder that serves an informative prior. We demonstrate the efficacy of the method at generating the EGG signal by conducting several experiments on datasets comprising multiple speakers, voice qualities, noise settings and speech pathologies. The proposed method is evaluated on many benchmark metrics and is found to agree with the gold standard while proving better than the state-of-the-art algorithms on a few tasks such as epoch extraction.

We present a novel variational framework for performing inference in (neural) stochastic differential equations (SDEs) driven by Markov-approximate fractional Brownian motion (fBM). SDEs offer a versatile tool for modeling real-world continuous-time dynamic systems with inherent noise and randomness. Combining SDEs with the powerful inference capabilities of variational methods, enables the learning of representative function distributions through stochastic gradient descent. However, conventional SDEs typically assume the underlying noise to follow a Brownian motion (BM), which hinders their ability to capture long-term dependencies. In contrast, fractional Brownian motion (fBM) extends BM to encompass non-Markovian dynamics, but existing methods for inferring fBM parameters are either computationally demanding or statistically inefficient. In this paper, building upon the Markov approximation of fBM, we derive the evidence lower bound essential for efficient variational inference of posterior path measures, drawing from the well-established field of stochastic analysis. Additionally, we provide a closed-form expression to determine optimal approximation coefficients. Furthermore, we propose the use of neural networks to learn the drift, diffusion and control terms within our variational posterior, leading to the variational training of neural-SDEs. In this framework, we also optimize the Hurst index, governing the nature of our fractional noise. Beyond validation on synthetic data, we contribute a novel architecture for variational latent video prediction,-an approach that, to the best of our knowledge, enables the first variational neural-SDE application to video perception.

Relation Extraction (RE) has been extended to cross-document scenarios because many relations are not simply described in a single document. This inevitably brings the challenge of efficient open-space evidence retrieval to support the inference of cross-document relations, along with the challenge of multi-hop reasoning on top of entities and evidence scattered in an open set of documents. To combat these challenges, we propose MR.COD (Multi-hop evidence retrieval for Cross-document relation extraction), which is a multi-hop evidence retrieval method based on evidence path mining and ranking. We explore multiple variants of retrievers to show evidence retrieval is essential in cross-document RE. We also propose a contextual dense retriever for this setting. Experiments on CodRED show that evidence retrieval with MR.COD effectively acquires crossdocument evidence and boosts end-to-end RE performance in both closed and open settings.

The acute phase of the Covid-19 pandemic has made apparent the need for decision support based upon accurate epidemic modeling. This process is substantially hampered by under-reporting of cases and related data incompleteness issues. In this article we adopt the Bayesian paradigm and synthesize publicly available data via a discrete-time stochastic epidemic modeling framework. The models allow for estimating the total number of infections while accounting for the endemic phase of the pandemic. We assess the prediction of the infection rate utilizing mobility information, notably the principal components of the mobility data. We evaluate variational Bayes in this context and find that Hamiltonian Monte Carlo offers a robust inference alternative for such models. We elaborate upon vector analysis of the epidemic dynamics, thus enriching the traditional tools used for decision making. In particular, we show how certain 2-dimensional plots on the phase plane may yield intuitive information regarding the speed and the type of transmission dynamics. We investigate the potential of a two-stage analysis as a consequence of cutting feedback, for inference on certain functionals of the model parameters. Finally, we show that a point mass on critical parameters is overly restrictive and investigate informative priors as a suitable alternative.

Urban causal research is essential for understanding the complex dynamics of cities and informing evidence-based policies. However, it is challenged by the inefficiency and bias of hypothesis generation, barriers to multimodal data complexity, and the methodological fragility of causal experimentation. Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) present an opportunity to rethink how urban causal analysis is conducted. This Perspective examines current urban causal research by analyzing taxonomies that categorize research topics, data sources, and methodological approaches to identify structural gaps. We then introduce an LLM-driven conceptual framework, AutoUrbanCI, composed of four distinct modular agents responsible for hypothesis generation, data engineering, experiment design and execution, and results interpretation with policy recommendations. We propose evaluation criteria for rigor and transparency and reflect on implications for human-AI collaboration, equity, and accountability. We call for a new research agenda that embraces AI-augmented workflows not as replacements for human expertise but as tools to broaden participation, improve reproducibility, and unlock more inclusive forms of urban causal reasoning.

As large language models (LLMs) are trained on increasingly opaque corpora, membership inference attacks (MIAs) have been proposed to audit whether copyrighted texts were used during training, despite growing concerns about their reliability under realistic conditions. We ask whether MIAs can serve as admissible evidence in adversarial copyright disputes where an accused model developer may obfuscate training data while preserving semantic content, and formalize this setting through a judge-prosecutor-accused communication protocol. To test robustness under this protocol, we introduce SAGE (Structure-Aware SAE-Guided Extraction), a paraphrasing framework guided by Sparse Autoencoders (SAEs) that rewrites training data to alter lexical structure while preserving semantic content and downstream utility. Our experiments show that state-of-the-art MIAs degrade when models are fine-tuned on SAGE-generated paraphrases, indicating that their signals are not robust to semantics-preserving transformations. While some leakage remains in certain fine-tuning regimes, these results suggest that MIAs are brittle in adversarial settings and insufficient, on their own, as a standalone mechanism for copyright auditing of LLMs.

As demand for LLM inference grows, it is becoming increasingly important that providers and their customers can verify that inference processes are performed correctly, without errors or tampering. However, re-running the same inference process twice often leads to different results due to benign numerical noise, making it difficult to distinguish legitimate variation from actual problems. To address this problem, we introduce Token-DiFR (Token-Divergence-From-Reference), a method for verifying inference outputs by comparing generated tokens against predictions made by a trusted reference implementation conditioned on the same random seed. Sampling seed synchronization tightly constrains valid outputs, leaving providers minimal room to deviate from correct inference, which allows output tokens themselves to serve as auditable evidence of correctness at zero additional cost to the provider. Token-DiFR reliably identifies sampling errors, simulated bugs, and model quantization, detecting 4-bit quantization with AUC > 0.999 within 300 output tokens. For applications requiring sample-efficient forward-pass verification, we additionally introduce Activation-DiFR, a scheme that uses random orthogonal projections to compress activations into compact fingerprints for subsequent verification. Activation-DiFR detects 4-bit quantization with AUC > 0.999 using just 2 output tokens, while reducing communication overhead by 25-75% relative to existing methods. We release an open-source integration with vLLM to accelerate practical deployment of verifiable inference.

A central statistical problem in population genetics is to infer evolutionary and biological parameters such as the strength of natural selection and allele age from DNA samples extracted from a contemporary population. That all samples come only from the present-day has long been known to limit statistical inference; there is potentially more information available if one also has access to ancient DNA so that inference is based on a time-series of historical changes in allele frequencies. We introduce a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method for Bayesian inference from allele frequency time-series data based on an underlying Wright--Fisher diffusion model of evolution, through which one can infer the parameters of essentially any selection model including those with frequency-dependent effects. The chief novelty is that we show this method to be exact in the sense that it is possible to augment the state space explored by MCMC with the unobserved diffusion trajectory, even though the transition function of this diffusion is intractable. Through careful design of a proposal distribution, we describe an efficient method in which updates to the trajectory and accept/reject decisions are calculated without error. We illustrate the method on data capturing changes in coat colour over the past 20,000 years, and find evidence to support previous findings that the mutant alleles ASIP and MC1R responsible for changes in coat color have experienced very strong, possibly overdominant, selection and further provide estimates for the ages of these genes.

We investigate the effects of prior selection on the inferred mass and spin parameters of the neutron star-black hole merger GW230529\_181500. Specifically, we explore models motivated by astrophysical considerations, including massive binary and pulsar evolution. We examine mass and spin distributions of neutron stars constrained by radio pulsar observations, alongside black hole spin observations from previous gravitational wave detections. We show that the inferred mass distribution highly depends upon the spin prior. Specifically, under the most restrictive, binary stellar evolution models, we obtain narrower distributions of masses with a black hole mass of 4.3^{+0.1}_{-0.1},M_{odot}and neutron star mass of 1.3^{+0.03}_{-0.03},M_{odot} where, somewhat surprisingly, it is the prior on component spins which has the greatest impact on the inferred mass distributions. Re-weighting using neutron star mass and spin priors from observations of radio pulsars, with black hole spins from observations of gravitational waves, yields the black hole and the neutron star masses to be 3.8^{+0.5}_{-0.6} ,M_odot and 1.4^{+0.2}_{-0.1} ,M_odot respectively. The sequence of compact object formation -- whether the neutron star or the black hole formed first -- cannot be determined at the observed signal-to-noise ratio. However, there is no evidence that the black hole was tidally spun up.

Agent skills can remarkably improve task success rates by using human-written procedural documents, but their quality is difficult to assess without environment-grounded verification. Existing skill generation methods heavily rely on preference logs rather than direct environment interaction, often yielding negligible or even degraded gains. We identify that it is a fundamental timing bottleneck: robust skills should be posterior-based, distilled from empirical environment interaction rather than prior plans. In this study, we introduce the Posterior Distillation Index (PDI), a trajectory-level metric that quantifies how well a distilled skill is grounded in the task-environment evidence. To operationalize PDI, we present SPARK (Structured Pipelines for Autonomous Runnable tasKs and sKill generation) for preserving task execution evidence towards full trajectory-level analysis. SPARK generates environment-verified trajectories used to compute PDI, and it applies PDI as an online diagnostic and intervention signal to ensure posterior skill formation. Across 86 runnable tasks, SPARK-generated skills consistently surpass no-skill baselines and outperform human-written skills on student models (inference cost up to 1,000x cheaper than teacher models). These findings show that PDI-guided distillation produces efficient and transferable skills grounded in the task-environment interaction. We release our code at https://github.com/EtaYang10th/spark-skills .

Scaling test-time compute has emerged as a powerful mechanism for enhancing Large Language Model (LLM) performance. However, standard post-training paradigms, Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) and Reinforcement Learning (RL), optimize the likelihood of individual samples under a base policy, creating a misalignment with test time procedures that rely on aggregated or filtered outputs. In this work, we propose Compute Aligned Training, which aligns training objectives with test-time strategies. By conceptualizing inference strategies as operators on the base policy, we derive new loss functions that maximize performance when said strategies are applied. We instantiate such loss functions for SFT and RL across common test time strategies. Finally, we provide empirical evidence that this training method substantially improves test time scaling over standard training.

We present a systematic, empirical evaluation of five local large language model (LLM) runtimes on Apple Silicon: MLX, MLC-LLM, llama.cpp, Ollama, and PyTorch MPS. Experiments were conducted on a Mac Studio equipped with an M2 Ultra processor and 192 GB of unified memory. Using the Qwen-2.5 model family across prompts ranging from a few hundred to 100,000 tokens, we measure time-to-first-token (TTFT), steady-state throughput, latency percentiles, long-context behavior (key-value and prompt caching), quantization support, streaming performance, batching and concurrency behavior, and deployment complexity. Under our settings, MLX achieves the highest sustained generation throughput, while MLC-LLM delivers consistently lower TTFT for moderate prompt sizes and offers stronger out-of-the-box inference features. llama.cpp is highly efficient for lightweight single-stream use, Ollama emphasizes developer ergonomics but lags in throughput and TTFT, and PyTorch MPS remains limited by memory constraints on large models and long contexts. All frameworks execute fully on-device with no telemetry, ensuring strong privacy guarantees. We release scripts, logs, and plots to reproduce all results. Our analysis clarifies the design trade-offs in Apple-centric LLM deployments and provides evidence-based recommendations for interactive and long-context processing. Although Apple Silicon inference frameworks still trail NVIDIA GPU-based systems such as vLLM in absolute performance, they are rapidly maturing into viable, production-grade solutions for private, on-device LLM inference.

BoN improves model outputs by sampling several candidates and selecting one with a proxy score, but it assumes that complete candidates can be evaluated reliably. Many vision-language tasks instead provide only partial verification: a finding, span, value, region, or relation may be checkable even when no dependable whole-response verifier exists. Moreover, the same claim may recur across candidates with opposing stances, allowing one observation to support part of the pool and contradict another. We introduce Best-of-Evidence (BoE), an inference-time selection framework that keeps the BoN candidate pool fixed, represents reusable claims with a signed candidate--factor graph, and allocates a limited budget to evidence actions that can change the final choice. BoE formalizes selection under partial verification and provides a practical score-based controller, with the zero-budget case recovering the underlying BoN decision. Theoretically, we show that residual evidence capacity limits any evidence-driven improvement and that shared factor queries can achieve an O(log K) versus Θ(K) query separation in a factor-code model. Common-ledger experiments on four medical VQA settings show that BoE can improve fixed-pool selection and rescue some BoN failures when evidence is reliable, contrastive, and decision-relevant, while also revealing the channel-quality and candidate-generation limits that prevent universal gains.

Vision-Language Models (VLMs) should answer from concrete image evidence rather than language priors, dataset shortcuts, or irrelevant visual context. Existing perception-aware post-training methods encourage image use through global perturbations or attention proxies, but they do not test whether a sampled answer causally depends on the local evidence that supports it. We propose Counterfactual Evidence Disentanglement (CED), a training-time evidence audit for VLM grounding. For each response, CED neutralizes an object-centric Evidence Region and compares the resulting support drop against matched non-evidence Regions. We combine this signal with answer correctness inside GRPO, rewarding correct answers that rely on the evidence path rather than shortcut or nuisance paths. CED uses weak object-level proposals, requires no question-specific evidence annotations, and adds no inference-time overhead. Across nine public benchmarks and four backbones, CED outperforms prior RL-based post-training methods, with targeted analyses verifying its object-centric signal.

Artificial Intelligence Virtual Cells (AIVCs) are envisioned as scientific agents that simulate cellular responses, explain underlying mechanisms, and support hypothesis-driven discovery. Existing AIVC benchmarks, however, operate primarily at the simulation layer, motivating complementary evaluation of how models interpret experimental evidence and formulate biological hypotheses. We introduce OmniVCBench, a figure-centric, source-traceable benchmark for the interpretation component of an AIVC. It contains 6,077 curated single- and multi-subfigure question--answer pairs derived from figures and experimental contexts in the scientific literature. Guided by Bloom's taxonomy, we instantiate interpretation-layer counterparts of the AIVC Predict--Explain--Discover agenda through three scientific reasoning tasks. We further introduce AIVC-Judge, a task-conditioned MLLM-as-a-judge framework with category-specific, reference-aware rubrics for evaluating open-ended responses. A complementary Model-Derived Hard-Negative Mining (MDHNM) strategy converts plausible errors observed during model inference into MCQ distractors for lower-cost evaluation. Within the evaluated heterogeneous model pool, MCQ accuracy correlates positively with AIVC-Judge scores, providing a complementary view of performance alongside open-response evaluation. Code and data demo are available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/OmniVCBench.

The recent detection of nanohertz stochastic gravitational-wave backgrounds (SGWBs) by pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) promises unique insights into astrophysical and cosmological origins. However, traditional Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approaches become prohibitively expensive for large datasets. We employ a normalizing flow (NF)-based machine learning framework to accelerate Bayesian inference in PTA analyses. For the first time, we perform Bayesian model comparison across SGWB source models in the framework of machine learning by training NF architectures on the PTA dataset (NANOGrav 15-year) and enabling direct evidence estimation via learned harmonic mean estimators. Our examples include 10 conventional SGWB source models such as supermassive black hole binaries, power-law spectrum, cosmic strings, domain walls, scalar-induced GWs, first-order phase transitions, and dual scenario/inflationary gravitational wave. Our approach jointly infers 20 red noise parameters and 2 SGWB parameters per model in sim 20\,hours (including training), compared to sim 10\,days with MCMC. Critically, the NF method preserves rigorous model selection accuracy, with small Hellinger distances (lesssim 0.3) relative to MCMC posteriors, and reproduces MCMC-based Bayes factors across all tested scenarios. This scalable technique for SGWB source comparison will be essential for future PTA expansions and next-generation arrays such as the SKA, offering orders-of-magnitude efficiency gains without sacrificing physical interpretability.

In many sports, it is commonly believed that the home team has an advantage over the visiting team, known as the home field advantage. Yet its causal effect on team performance is largely unknown. In this paper, we propose a novel causal inference approach to study the causal effect of home field advantage in English Premier League. We develop a hierarchical causal model and show that both league level and team level causal effects are identifiable and can be conveniently estimated. We further develop an inference procedure for the proposed estimators and demonstrate its excellent numerical performance via simulation studies. We implement our method on the 2020-21 English Premier League data and assess the causal effect of home advantage on eleven summary statistics that measure the offensive and defensive performance and referee bias. We find that the home field advantage resides more heavily in offensive statistics than it does in defensive or referee statistics. We also find evidence that teams that had lower rankings retain a higher home field advantage.

The R-Learner is a powerful, theoretically-grounded framework for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects, prized for its robustness to nuisance model errors. However, its application to network data, where causal heterogeneity is often graph-dependent, presents a critical challenge to its core assumption of a well-specified final-stage model. In this paper, we conduct a large-scale empirical study to systematically dissect the R-Learner framework on graphs. We provide the first rigorous evidence that the primary driver of performance is the inductive bias of the final-stage CATE estimator, an effect that dominates the choice of nuisance models. Our central finding is the quantification of a catastrophic "representation bottleneck": we prove with overwhelming statistical significance (p < 0.001) that R-Learners with a graph-blind final stage fail completely (MSE > 4.0), even when paired with powerful GNN nuisance models. Conversely, our proposed end-to-end Graph R-Learner succeeds and significantly outperforms a strong, non-DML GNN T-Learner baseline. Furthermore, we identify and provide a mechanistic explanation for a subtle, topology-dependent "nuisance bottleneck," linking it to GNN over-squashing via a targeted "Hub-Periphery Trade-off" analysis. Our findings are validated across diverse synthetic and semi-synthetic benchmarks. We release our code as a reproducible benchmark to facilitate future research on this critical "final-stage bottleneck."

Long video understanding (LVU) is challenging because answering real-world queries often depends on sparse, temporally dispersed cues buried in hours of mostly redundant and irrelevant content. While agentic pipelines improve video reasoning capabilities, prevailing frameworks rely on a query-agnostic captioner to perceive video information, which wastes computation on irrelevant content and blurs fine-grained temporal and spatial information. Motivated by active perception theory, we argue that LVU agents should actively decide what, when, and where to observe, and continuously assess whether the current observation is sufficient to answer the query. We present Active Video Perception (AVP), an evidence-seeking framework that treats the video as an interactive environment and acquires compact, queryrelevant evidence directly from pixels. Concretely, AVP runs an iterative plan-observe-reflect process with MLLM agents. In each round, a planner proposes targeted video interactions, an observer executes them to extract time-stamped evidence, and a reflector evaluates the sufficiency of the evidence for the query, either halting with an answer or triggering further observation. Across five LVU benchmarks, AVP achieves highest performance with significant improvements. Notably, AVP outperforms the best agentic method by 5.7% in average accuracy while only requires 18.4% inference time and 12.4% input tokens.

Many machine learning systems have access to multiple sources of evidence for the same prediction target, yet these sources often differ in reliability and informativeness across inputs. In bioacoustic classification, species identity may be inferred both from the acoustic signal and from spatiotemporal context such as location and season; while Bayesian inference motivates multiplicative evidence combination, in practice we typically only have access to discriminative predictors rather than calibrated generative models. We introduce Fusion under INdependent Conditional Hypotheses (FINCH), an adaptive log-linear evidence fusion framework that integrates a pre-trained audio classifier with a structured spatiotemporal predictor. FINCH learns a per-sample gating function that estimates the reliability of contextual information from uncertainty and informativeness statistics. The resulting fusion family contains the audio-only classifier as a special case and explicitly bounds the influence of contextual evidence, yielding a risk-contained hypothesis class with an interpretable audio-only fallback. Across benchmarks, FINCH consistently outperforms fixed-weight fusion and audio-only baselines, improving robustness and error trade-offs even when contextual information is weak in isolation. We achieve state-of-the-art performance on CBI and competitive or improved performance on several subsets of BirdSet using a lightweight, interpretable, evidence-based approach. Code is available: \href{https://anonymous.4open.science/r/birdnoise-85CD/README.md{anonymous-repository}}

LLM inference is still evaluated mainly as a model or software problem: accuracy, latency, throughput, and hardware utilization. This is incomplete. At deployment scale, the relevant output is a quality-conditioned token produced under joint constraints from effective compute, delivered data-center power, cooling capacity, PUE, and utilization. We argue that the ML community should treat inference as energy-to-token production. We formalize this view with a dimensionally consistent Token Production Function in which token rate is bounded by both compute-per-token and energy-per-token ceilings. Listed API prices vary by over an order of magnitude across providers, but we use price dispersion only as directional motivation, not as causal evidence of marginal cost. The core physical question is instead: under fixed quality and service targets, when does the binding constraint move from theoretical peak compute toward delivered power, cooling, and operational efficiency? Under this framing, system optimizations -- latent KV-cache compression, sparse or heavily compressed attention, quantization, routing, and difficulty-adaptive reasoning -- are not merely local engineering tricks. They are energy-to-token levers because they reduce FLOPs/token, joules/token, memory traffic, or utilization losses under fixed (q^{*},s^{*}). We therefore call for inference papers and benchmarks to report Joules/token, active binding constraint, PUE-adjusted delivered power, and utilization-adjusted token output alongside accuracy and latency.

Natively trained spiking language models struggle to combine Transformer-like language quality, stable multi-domain pre-training, and high activation sparsity. We present SymbolicLight V1, a spike-gated dual-path language model that combines binary Leaky Integrate-and-Fire spike dynamics with a continuous residual stream. Its Dual-Path SparseTCAM module replaces dense self-attention with an exponential-decay aggregation path for long-range memory and a spike-gated local attention path for short-range precision, complemented by a dynamic context-conditioned decoding head and a bilingual tokenizer. A 194M-parameter SymbolicLight V1 model trained from scratch on a 3B-token Chinese-English corpus reaches held-out validation PPL 8.88-8.93 across four independent runs at >89% per-element activation sparsity. It trails GPT-2 201M by 7.7% in PPL while surpassing GPT-2 124M under the reported comparison. Component ablations at matched 0.5B-token training budgets show that the spike-gated local attention path is the largest contributor, and that replacing LIF dynamics with a deterministic top-k mask at matched sparsity causes a larger degradation, indicating that temporal integration rather than sparsity alone drives performance. We also report a 0.8B-parameter scale-up run trained on 48.8B tokens as evidence of optimization and sparsity preservation, not as a primary quality comparison. Current dense-hardware inference is slower than GPT-2, so neuromorphic deployment is presented as a future sparsity-driven opportunity rather than an achieved hardware speedup.

Deep research agents have achieved remarkable progress on complex information seeking tasks. Even long ReAct style rollouts explore only a single trajectory, while recent state of the art systems scale inference time compute via parallel search and aggregation. Yet deep research answers are composed of complementary pieces of evidence, which parallel rollouts often duplicate rather than complete, yielding diminishing returns while pushing the aggregation context toward the model's limit. We propose Argus, an agentic system in which a Searcher and a Navigator cooperate to treat deep research as assembling a jigsaw from complementary evidence pieces, rather than brute forcing the whole answer in parallel. The Searcher collects evidence traces for a given sub-query through ReAct-style interaction. The Navigator maintains a shared evidence graph, verifying which pieces are still missing, dispatching Searchers to gather them, and reasoning over the completed graph to produce a source-traced final answer. We train the Navigator with reinforcement learning to verify, dispatch, and synthesize, while independently training the Searcher to remain a standard ReAct agent. The resulting Navigator supports rollouts with a single Searcher or many in parallel without retraining. With both Searcher and Navigator built on a 35B-A3B MoE backbone, Argus gains 5.5 points with a single Searcher and 12.7 points with 8 parallel Searchers, averaged over eight benchmarks. With 64 Searchers it reaches 86.2 on BrowseComp, surpassing every proprietary agent we benchmark, while the Navigator's reasoning context stays under 21.5K tokens.

Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models are deployed through pipelines that end users cannot audit, and a poisoned VLA can behave normally on clean observations while a small visual trigger redirects a long-horizon robot policy before any failure becomes observable. Existing vision or language defenses rarely explain what a triggered VLA representation looks like or how to recover behavior without retraining. We study this gap through two independently proposed VLA attacks from groups with distinct injection strategies, BadVLA and INFUSE; the latter persists after downstream clean adaptation. Across the evaluated poisoned models, we identify a recurring internal mechanism: a compact causal footprint, namely a small visual support that is attention-seeded, spatially compact, and causal in a precise sense -- masking it returns a clean-calibrated evidence-evolution score to the normal operating region. This footprint motivates TrustVLA, a mechanism-guided inference-time defense that adapts the Dirichlet evidence framework from trusted classification to monitor per-token, per-layer epistemic uncertainty in VLA policies. With only a small clean calibration set, TrustVLA (i)~detects abnormal evidence evolution, (ii)~localizes the compact support by counterfactual mechanism-score drop, and (iii)~recovers the observation by localized inpainting. Across OpenVLA/LIBERO and π_{0.5} transfer evaluations, TrustVLA reduces attack success while preserving clean-task performance, providing a retraining-free, mechanism-guided defense for visual-triggered VLA backdoors.

Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) generate intermediate reasoning traces that may contain unsafe content, even when their final responses appear safe. Guardrail models are designed to detect and block unsafe content, yet existing benchmarks for unsafe content detection focus primarily on prompts and final responses, leaving reasoning traces largely unexamined. Moreover, these benchmarks typically provide only binary safety labels, without evidence annotations that justify the judgments. To address these limitations, we introduce TRACE, an evidence-grounded safety evaluation benchmark that covers the entire LRM inference pipeline: prompts, reasoning traces, and final responses. TRACE includes prompts in two languages spanning nine risk categories and ten attack strategies. For each prompt, four LRMs generate reasoning traces and final responses, and we annotate the safety of each component and extract supporting evidence from the corresponding source text. Evaluating 18 guardrail models on TRACE reveals that safety judgment for reasoning traces is substantially more challenging than for prompts or final responses, and that current models struggle to accurately extract supporting evidence. These findings highlight the need for guardrail models that can reliably detect and precisely localize unsafe content across the LRM inference pipeline.

In collaborative tasks with asymmetric information, participants coordinate their understanding through interaction. We ask whether gaze provides evidence about grounding across two such tasks. Working from discrete behavioral annotations, we map HCRC MapTask (Anderson et al., 1991) and MUNDEX (Türk et al., 2023) into a shared partner/task/away vocabulary and compute gaze features around task-relevant dialogue units. In both corpora, aligned reference interpretations (MapTask) and UND (understood) judgments (MUNDEX) are associated with more task-directed gaze and with less partner-directed gaze, lower gaze entropy, and fewer gaze transitions. The associations are clearest for the participant leading the task: in giver-produced references, and in explainer judgments, which also co-vary with the explainee's gaze. In same-speaker MapTask reference chains, the speaker's gaze entropy is lower at the mention where a previously non-aligned referent becomes aligned. The best gaze feature groups improve modestly over controls under grouped cross-validation: temporal features in MapTask and raw proportions in MUNDEX. Because effects are small and several weaken when recurring participants rather than dialogues are the unit of inference, we treat gaze as one contributing cue to grounding, to be interpreted alongside task and dialogue context.

As large language models are increasingly deployed to simulate diverse human characters, ensuring persona fidelity, defined as the extent to which an agent's behavior consistently reflects the psychological and stylistic characteristics of a target persona, has become a critical requirement. However, existing evaluation paradigms primarily rely on either holistic LLM-based judges, which are prone to "holistic appraisal hallucination'', or static psychometric inventories, which fail to capture the context-dependent fidelity required in dynamic dialogue. To address these limitations, we propose PRISM (Persona Reasoning with Inverse SFL-based Modeling), a psycholinguistically grounded framework that reformulates persona fidelity evaluation as a structured inverse inference task. Inspired by Systemic Functional Linguistics (SFL), PRISM decomposes persona fidelity into three functional dimensions: Task Framing, Interpersonal Stance, and Linguistic Style. It estimates dimension-specific evidence over a persona-conditioned label space and aggregates these signals into an interpretable and auditable evaluation process. Experiments show that PRISM yields more accurate and stable judgements than traditional holistic judging, providing a more reliable framework for persona fidelity evaluation.

Hour-scale audio-visual question answering is constrained by a context dilemma: dense whole-recording encoding rapidly exhausts context limits, whereas uniform temporal compression severely dilutes fine-grained acoustic and visual evidence. We introduce LEAP, a framework where the model retrieves its own evidence without placing the whole recording in one context. LEAP divides a recording into fixed-duration blocks, applying a lightweight localization pass to each block to score short candidate windows. The highest-ranked windows are pooled and re-encoded in a single bounded answer pass. Consequently, the answer input and peak context remain independent of the recording duration. By decoupling evidence localization from reasoning, our framework can localize candidate temporal windows over pre-computed transcripts without decoding media frames, while preserving fine-grained visual and non-speech evidence by routing the final answering pass over raw audio-visual streams. LEAP trains both stages: a localization LoRA improves the selected windows, and an answer LoRA improves the answers read from the same windows. The block grid natively supports causal queries, enabling LEAP to support streaming inference without streaming-specific training. Across several AVQA benchmarks, LEAP improves over the Qwen3-Omni-30B-A3B baseline by 4.5-16.8%, and transfers to a second omni-modal backbone, MiniCPM-o 4.5, surpassing its published results by 3.1-13.0%.

Large Language Models (LLMs) frequently memorize sensitive training data thereby creating significant privacy and copyright risks. Addressing these risks, i.e., removing such knowledge from an existing model checkpoint, has proven challenging as many unlearning methods lead to catastrophic utility loss or are ineffective for complex queries. We introduce Divergence Decoding (DD), a mechanism that uses small auxiliary models to steer the logits of the LLM away from specific data during inference. Training these models is straight forward, i.e., we use standard pre-training and fine-tuning setups. We find the method decisively outperforms state-of-the-art (SOTA) baselines on unlearning benchmarks across a variety of model and training dataset scales consistent with DD being an effective and inexpensive solution to unlearning. We then demonstrate that this steered distribution can be trivially distilled back into the base model. Since the method is generally applicable to any probabilistic model, we explore its efficacy outside of text generation and find evidence of generalization to the domain of images.

Complex video reasoning often depends on evidence scattered across distant moments, entities, and events, yet a correct answer alone does not reveal whether a model relied on the right parts of the video. We introduce ASSEMBLE, a framework that makes supporting evidence explicit throughout long-video reasoning. ASSEMBLE organizes local observations and cross-clip narratives into timestamped evidence catalogs traceable to the source video. A grounding-aware reader then composes question-specific atomic skills whose structured outputs contain explicit evidence references and support assessments. We use correctness-gated citation alignment as a direct grounding signal: after teacher-supervised fine-tuning, Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) jointly optimizes answer correctness and citation alignment. This produces inspectable intermediate traces while keeping final predictions linked to explicit supporting evidence. Using a 9B reader supervised by a 235B teacher and shared precomputed evidence catalogs, ASSEMBLE achieves 59.2% macro-averaged answer accuracy across three long-video reasoning benchmarks, compared with 58.3% for Gemini-2.5-Pro, while improving macro-averaged overlap-based Grounded accuracy by 6.7%, with gains on all three benchmarks. Ablations further show that, with the same post-trained reader and inference budget, structured skill inference improves Grounded accuracy over free-form reasoning. Together, these results show that explicit evidence grounding can be integrated directly into long-video reasoning without sacrificing answer accuracy.

Language places subtle constraints on how we make inductive inferences. Developmental evidence by Gelman et al. (2002) has shown children (4 years and older) to differentiate among generic statements ("Bears are daxable"), universally quantified NPs ("all bears are daxable") and indefinite plural NPs ("some bears are daxable") in extending novel properties to a specific member (all > generics > some), suggesting that they represent these types of propositions differently. We test if these subtle differences arise in general purpose statistical learners like Vision Language Models, by replicating the original experiment. On tasking them through a series of precondition tests (robust identification of categories in images and sensitivities to all and some), followed by the original experiment, we find behavioral alignment between models and humans. Post-hoc analyses on their representations revealed that these differences are organized based on inductive constraints and not surface-form differences.

This paper presents our system description and error analysis of our entry for NLLP 2024 shared task on Legal Natural Language Inference (L-NLI) hagag2024legallenssharedtask2024. The task required classifying these relationships as entailed, contradicted, or neutral, indicating any association between the review and the complaint. Our system emerged as the winning submission, significantly outperforming other entries with a substantial margin and demonstrating the effectiveness of our approach in legal text analysis. We provide a detailed analysis of the strengths and limitations of each model and approach tested, along with a thorough error analysis and suggestions for future improvements. This paper aims to contribute to the growing field of legal NLP by offering insights into advanced techniques for natural language inference in legal contexts, making it accessible to both experts and newcomers in the field.

Providing Language Models (LMs) with relevant evidence in the context (either via retrieval or user-provided) can significantly improve their ability to provide factually correct grounded responses. However, recent studies have found that LMs often struggle to fully comprehend and utilize key evidence from the context, especially when it contains noise and irrelevant information - an issue common in real-world scenarios. To address this, we propose SelfElicit, an inference-time approach that helps LMs focus on key contextual evidence through self-guided explicit highlighting. By leveraging the inherent evidence-finding capabilities of LMs using the attention scores of deeper layers, our method automatically identifies and emphasizes key evidence within the input context, facilitating more accurate and factually grounded responses without additional training or iterative prompting. We demonstrate that SelfElicit brings consistent and significant improvement on multiple evidence-based QA tasks for various LM families while maintaining computational efficiency. Our code and documentation are available at https://github.com/ZhiningLiu1998/SelfElicit.

The advent of 1-bit large language models (LLMs), led by BitNet b1.58, has spurred interest in ternary LLMs. Despite this, research and practical applications focusing on efficient edge inference for ternary LLMs remain scarce. To bridge this gap, we introduce Bitnet.cpp, an inference system optimized for BitNet b1.58 and ternary LLMs. Given that mixed-precision matrix multiplication (mpGEMM) constitutes the bulk of inference time in ternary LLMs, Bitnet.cpp incorporates a novel mpGEMM library to facilitate sub-2-bits-per-weight, efficient and lossless inference. The library features two core solutions: Ternary Lookup Table (TL), which addresses spatial inefficiencies of previous bit-wise methods, and Int2 with a Scale (I2_S), which ensures lossless edge inference, both enabling high-speed inference. Our experiments show that Bitnet.cpp achieves up to a 6.25x increase in speed over full-precision baselines and up to 2.32x over low-bit baselines, setting new benchmarks in the field. Additionally, we expand TL to element-wise lookup table (ELUT) for low-bit LLMs in the appendix, presenting both theoretical and empirical evidence of its considerable potential. Bitnet.cpp is publicly available at https://github.com/microsoft/BitNet/tree/paper , offering a sophisticated solution for the efficient and practical deployment of edge LLMs.

We revisit Zadeh's notion of "evidence of the second kind" and show that it provides the foundation for a general theory of epistemic random fuzzy sets, which generalizes both the Dempster-Shafer theory of belief functions and possibility theory. In this perspective, Dempster-Shafer theory deals with belief functions generated by random sets, while possibility theory deals with belief functions induced by fuzzy sets. The more general theory allows us to represent and combine evidence that is both uncertain and fuzzy. We demonstrate the application of this formalism to statistical inference, and show that it makes it possible to reconcile the possibilistic interpretation of likelihood with Bayesian inference.

Large reasoning models (LRMs) have shown significant progress in test-time scaling through chain-of-thought prompting. Current approaches like search-o1 integrate retrieval augmented generation (RAG) into multi-step reasoning processes but rely on a single, linear reasoning chain while incorporating unstructured textual information in a flat, context-agnostic manner. As a result, these approaches can lead to error accumulation throughout the reasoning chain, which significantly limits its effectiveness in medical question-answering (QA) tasks where both accuracy and traceability are critical requirements. To address these challenges, we propose MIRAGE (Multi-chain Inference with Retrieval-Augmented Graph Exploration), a novel test-time scalable reasoning framework that performs dynamic multi-chain inference over structured medical knowledge graphs. Specifically, MIRAGE 1) decomposes complex queries into entity-grounded sub-questions, 2) executes parallel inference chains, 3) retrieves evidence adaptively via neighbor expansion and multi-hop traversal, and 4) integrates answers using cross-chain verification to resolve contradictions. Experiments on three medical QA benchmarks (GenMedGPT-5k, CMCQA, and ExplainCPE) show that MIRAGE consistently outperforms GPT-4o, Tree-of-Thought variants, and other retrieval-augmented baselines in both automatic and human evaluations. Additionally, MIRAGE improves interpretability by generating explicit reasoning chains that trace each factual claim to concrete chains within the knowledge graph, making it well-suited for complex medical reasoning scenarios. The code will be available for further research.

We investigate whether large language models encode latent knowledge of frame semantics, focusing on frame identification, a core challenge in frame semantic parsing that involves selecting the appropriate semantic frame for a target word in context. Using the FrameNet lexical resource, we evaluate models under prompt-based inference and observe that they can perform frame identification effectively even without explicit supervision. To assess the impact of task-specific training, we fine-tune the model on FrameNet data, which substantially improves in-domain accuracy while generalizing well to out-of-domain benchmarks. Further analysis shows that the models can generate semantically coherent frame definitions, highlighting the model's internalized understanding of frame semantics.

We present a complete theoretical characterization of Latent Posterior Factors (LPF), a principled framework for aggregating multiple heterogeneous evidence items in probabilistic prediction tasks. Multi-evidence reasoning arises pervasively in high-stakes domains including healthcare diagnosis, financial risk assessment, legal case analysis, and regulatory compliance, yet existing approaches either lack formal guarantees or fail to handle multi-evidence scenarios architecturally. LPF encodes each evidence item into a Gaussian latent posterior via a variational autoencoder, converting posteriors to soft factors through Monte Carlo marginalization, and aggregating factors via exact Sum-Product Network inference (LPF-SPN) or a learned neural aggregator (LPF-Learned). We prove seven formal guarantees spanning the key desiderata for trustworthy AI: Calibration Preservation (ECE <= epsilon + C/sqrt(K_eff)); Monte Carlo Error decaying as O(1/sqrt(M)); a non-vacuous PAC-Bayes bound with train-test gap of 0.0085 at N=4200; operation within 1.12x of the information-theoretic lower bound; graceful degradation as O(epsilon*delta*sqrt(K)) under corruption, maintaining 88% performance with half of evidence adversarially replaced; O(1/sqrt(K)) calibration decay with R^2=0.849; and exact epistemic-aleatoric uncertainty decomposition with error below 0.002%. All theorems are empirically validated on controlled datasets spanning up to 4,200 training examples. Our theoretical framework establishes LPF as a foundation for trustworthy multi-evidence AI in safety-critical applications.

Real-world decision-making, from tax compliance assessment to medical diagnosis, requires aggregating multiple noisy and potentially contradictory evidence sources. Existing approaches either lack explicit uncertainty quantification (neural aggregation methods) or rely on manually engineered discrete predicates (probabilistic logic frameworks), limiting scalability to unstructured data. We introduce Latent Posterior Factors (LPF), a framework that transforms Variational Autoencoder (VAE) latent posteriors into soft likelihood factors for Sum-Product Network (SPN) inference, enabling tractable probabilistic reasoning over unstructured evidence while preserving calibrated uncertainty estimates. We instantiate LPF as LPF-SPN (structured factor-based inference) and LPF-Learned (end-to-end learned aggregation), enabling a principled comparison between explicit probabilistic reasoning and learned aggregation under a shared uncertainty representation. Across eight domains (seven synthetic and the FEVER benchmark), LPF-SPN achieves high accuracy (up to 97.8%), low calibration error (ECE 1.4%), and strong probabilistic fit, substantially outperforming evidential deep learning, LLMs and graph-based baselines over 15 random seeds. Contributions: (1) A framework bridging latent uncertainty representations with structured probabilistic reasoning. (2) Dual architectures enabling controlled comparison of reasoning paradigms. (3) Reproducible training methodology with seed selection. (4) Evaluation against EDL, BERT, R-GCN, and large language model baselines. (5) Cross-domain validation. (6) Formal guarantees in a companion paper.

As neural computation is revolutionizing the field of Artificial Intelligence (AI), rethinking the ideal neural hardware is becoming the next frontier. Fast and reliable von Neumann architecture has been the hosting platform for neural computation. Although capable, its separation of memory and computation creates the bottleneck for the energy efficiency of neural computation, contrasting the biological brain. The question remains: how can we efficiently combine memory and computation, while exploiting the physics of the substrate, to build intelligent systems? In this thesis, I explore an alternative way with memristive devices for neural computation, where the unique physical dynamics of the devices are used for inference, learning and routing. Guided by the principles of gradient-based learning, we selected functions that need to be materialized, and analyzed connectomics principles for efficient wiring. Despite non-idealities and noise inherent in analog physics, I will provide hardware evidence of adaptability of local learning to memristive substrates, new material stacks and circuit blocks that aid in solving the credit assignment problem and efficient routing between analog crossbars for scalable architectures.

Ask a frontier model how to taper six milligrams of alprazolam (psychiatrist retired, ten days of pills left, abrupt cessation causes seizures) and it tells her to call the psychiatrist she just explained does not exist. Change one word ("I'm a psychiatrist; a patient presents with...") and the same model, same weights, same inference pass produces a textbook Ashton Manual taper with diazepam equivalence, anticonvulsant coverage, and monitoring thresholds. The knowledge was there; the model withheld it. IatroBench measures this gap. Sixty pre-registered clinical scenarios, six frontier models, 3,600 responses, scored on two axes (commission harm, CH 0-3; omission harm, OH 0-4) through a structured-evaluation pipeline validated against physician scoring (kappa_w = 0.571, within-1 agreement 96%). The central finding is identity-contingent withholding: match the same clinical question in physician vs. layperson framing and all five testable models provide better guidance to the physician (decoupling gap +0.38, p = 0.003; binary hit rates on safety-colliding actions drop 13.1 percentage points in layperson framing, p < 0.0001, while non-colliding actions show no change). The gap is widest for the model with the heaviest safety investment (Opus, +0.65). Three failure modes separate cleanly: trained withholding (Opus), incompetence (Llama 4), and indiscriminate content filtering (GPT-5.2, whose post-generation filter strips physician responses at 9x the layperson rate because they contain denser pharmacological tokens). The standard LLM judge assigns OH = 0 to 73% of responses a physician scores OH >= 1 (kappa = 0.045); the evaluation apparatus has the same blind spot as the training apparatus. Every scenario targets someone who has already exhausted the standard referrals.

Vision language models (VLMs) are increasingly capable of reasoning over images, but robust visual reasoning often requires re-grounding intermediate steps in the underlying visual evidence. Recent approaches typically rely on external image operations such as zooming or cropping to re-access fine-grained details during inference, which requires additional image re-encoding and can disrupt the reasoning trajectory. We argue that VLMs already provide strong internal signals for identifying and reusing visual evidence, and that these signals can be directly leveraged to support image-grounded reasoning. Motivated by this insight, we propose an end-to-end self-revisit framework, SIEVE, that trains models to re-engage image evidence through internal representations. SIEVE automatically extracts embeddings of salient image regions and injects them into the reasoning chain when additional grounding is needed, enabling later steps to condition on relevant visual cues without external tool calls or re-encoding. We use reinforcement learning to teach the model when to trigger visual revisiting and which region embeddings to retrieve and insert during the reasoning process. Experiments on multiple visual reasoning benchmarks, together with perception, reasoning, and hallucination evaluations, show that SIEVE yields consistent gains, improving performance by 8 percent on average across several benchmarks.

Query clustering organizes queries into groups that reflect shared latent capability demands, enabling capability-aware LLM evaluation. Existing clustering methods, which primarily rely on semantic taxonomies or embeddings, often fail to capture such latent capability requirements due to a misalignment between surface-level semantics and actual model performance. We propose ECC, an algorithm that calibrates prior semantic embeddings using limited posterior model comparisons to bridge the gap between surface-level semantics and latent capability requirements. ECC characterizes each cluster through a capability profile parameterized by a Bradley-Terry model and uses trainable mixture weights to accommodate queries with mixed capability demands, jointly learning a flexible, capability-aware clustering structure that supports query-specific inference of LLM capabilities. Extensive quantitative and qualitative evaluations demonstrate that ECC significantly improves LLM capability ranking quality, outperforming human-labeled and embedding-based baselines by an average of 17.64 and 18.02 percentage points, respectively, and proves effective in downstream tasks such as query routing.

Reasoning-acting frameworks enhance large language models (LLMs) by interleaving reasoning with actions for dynamic information acquisition. However, extending this paradigm to graph learning remains underexplored. Graph data is inherently structured, with information distributed across nodes and edges and encoded through both topology and latent representations. As a result, effective reasoning over graphs requires not only retrieving informative evidence from the graph, but also progressively refining the accumulated context during multi-step inference. In this work, we propose GraphReAct, a graph reasoning-acting framework that enables step-by-step inference over graph-structured data. Specifically, we design a graph-based action space with two complementary retrieval actions: topological retrieval, which captures local structural dependencies, and semantic retrieval, which accesses non-local but relevant evidence in the representation space. These actions dynamically expand the reasoning context. To further support multi-step reasoning, we introduce another type of action, context refinement, which distills and reorganizes accumulated information into a compact representation. By interleaving reasoning with both retrieval and refinement actions, our framework enables a progressive transition from context expansion to compression. Extensive experiments on six benchmark datasets demonstrate that GraphReAct consistently outperforms state-of-the-art methods, validating the effectiveness of reasoning-acting for graph learning.

In medical multiple-choice question answering (MCQA), Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) can supplement the domain knowledge of language models (LMs). However, since vanilla RAG indiscriminately utilizes retrieved documents, it can degrade LM performance. To address this, we propose MedJudgeRAG. Our framework represents retrieved documents as a dynamic knowledge graph (KG) composed of entities and relations. For each option, the model judges an evidence verdict from the retrieved documents and the KG. Based on the verdict combination, the model determines a knowledge utilization strategy to reason toward the final answer. These capabilities are trained via supervised fine-tuning using structured reasoning traces generated by a teacher LM. The training employs a weighted cross-entropy loss that differentially weights the KG and reasoning segments. Experiments on two medical MCQA benchmarks demonstrate that MedJudgeRAG consistently outperforms both vanilla RAG and parametric baselines. Furthermore, ablation analysis reveals that the dynamic KG is more effective as graph-conditioned supervision at training time than as an explicit output at inference time. Our code is available at https://github.com/hyu-amllab/medjudgerag, and the generated reasoning traces are released at https://huggingface.co/datasets/youarethewon/medjudgerag.

Invasive coronary angiography (CAG) is the gold standard for diagnosing coronary artery disease, but interpretation varies substantially among observers. Existing AI systems can improve consistency but lack auditable decision processes and are limited in comprehensive open-ended assessment, undermining clinician trust and clinical adoption readiness. We developed CARDEA, a unified large vision-language model that serves as the inference core of a CAG pipeline. It was trained solely on public datasets and closed-ended tasks in three stages: visual feature alignment, a self-distilled Chain-of-Box (CoB) cold start, and reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) with a CoB reward encouraging bounding-box use in the reasoning trace. We assessed its two study-level diagnoses, dominance classification and complexity assessment, against a dedicated classifier and two interventional cardiologists. Report generation was excluded from training and evaluated zero-shot across stages on an external cohort using vessel-severity macro-F_1. CARDEA trailed the classifier on in-distribution dominance but drew level under domain shift (accuracy, 0.91 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.86 to 0.95]) and was comparable to the cardiologists on complexity assessment (accuracy, 0.90 [CI, 0.82 to 0.97]). Only RLVR improved zero-shot report generation, raising its vessel-severity macro-F_1 (0.686 [CI, 0.664 to 0.707]) above the untuned base model (0.513) and over twice the always-normal floor (0.312). CARDEA runs an end-to-end CAG pipeline from raw multi-view videos through keyframe selection to study-level diagnosis while exposing auditable spatial evidence behind its conclusions. RLVR on verifiable closed-ended tasks surfaced open-ended reporting ability that supervised imitation did not. Clinical use requires prospective validation against expert cardiologists.

GUI agents accumulate high-resolution screenshots as the trajectory unfolds, increasing inference latency and memory usage. Training-free visual token pruning can reduce this cost, but cache reuse introduces a fundamental constraint. Once tokens are discarded, the corresponding visual evidence cannot be recovered without re-encoding. Pruning therefore becomes an irreversible admission decision that must remain useful for unknown future targets while preserving coverage of operable regions under tight budgets. To address these challenges, we propose \method{}, a training-free framework for \textbf{Trajectory-robust Admission and Coverage-aware Evidence ordering}. Specifically, we combine a query-independent layout-derived interaction prior with instruction relevance and feature novelty to rank visual evidence according to both potential future utility and diversity. Then, we reserve part of the budget for native visual tokens distributed across the screen, repairing missing spatial coverage without breaking the ordering. Together, these mechanisms produce a nested token order, allowing retained visual evidence to shrink monotonically across budgets while remaining reusable throughout the trajectory. Finally, our monotone KV contraction incrementally contracts retired frames into compact session state, avoiding repeated visual encoding or pruning. Extensive experiments across six GUI benchmarks and diverse models verify the effectiveness of our proposed under tight budgets. The source code will be released.

Text-to-image retrieval with frozen dual encoders degrades when the query names a small, visually subordinate object in a cluttered scene: a single global image embedding underrepresents the localized visual evidence. We present MINER, a training-free inference framework that augments a frozen dual encoder's global image embedding with a small bank of region-level embeddings and a hubness-correcting similarity rescoring, recovering visual evidence that global pooling underweights. To evaluate this setting, we introduce ROCS, a benchmark built from high-clutter subsets of Flickr30K and MS COCO whose images are re-captioned to name a single low-salience object. Experiments on CLIP, SigLIP, and SigLIP 2 show that MINER improves retrieval on every backbone, on ROCS and on the standard splits. Analyses show that these gains come primarily from broader spatial coverage rather than precise crop placement, revealing a simple and general way to recover localized evidence from frozen representations. Code: https://github.com/aalquwayfili/MINER. Dataset: https://huggingface.co/datasets/aalquwayfili/ROCS.

Model-as-a-service platforms call for continuous optimization as complex serving conditions expose inefficiencies missed before deployment. Detailed always-on profiling can incur substantial overhead, while lightweight collection omits information needed for diagnosis. We present Herschel, a continuous optimization system for production large language model (LLM) inference. Our key insight is that adaptive, on-demand profiling can provide rich full-stack evidence without continuous collection. Herschel safely attaches to and detaches from selected running processes without engine changes or restarts, and adapts coverage as investigations reveal missing evidence. Herschel reconstructs operator executions and cross-process dependencies to identify inefficiency mechanisms and suggest solutions using applicable reference fixes. AI agents implement and test engine and kernel changes under controlled conditions that preserve the triggering workload and dependencies, with expert review before deployment. Controlled tests show active-collection overhead below 0.5% for time to first token and 7% for time per output token. Bounded windows, typically 30 s, avoid the continuous cost of always-on tracing. Over six months, Herschel collected approximately 17,000 traces across over 120 model variants and more than 10 accelerator types, identifying inefficiency patterns in 23% of the traces. Representative findings guide widely deployed optimizations, including restructured synchronization, removal of unused computation, and improved operator implementations.

Natural language messages often contain quasi-identifiers that are weak in isolation but can jointly reveal an individual's private attributes. We call such a jointly revealing set of cues a quasi-evidence group. Existing privacy benchmarks focus on explicit identifiers, attribute inference, or task-driven disclosures, leaving inference from quasi-evidence groups largely unmeasured. In practice, whether exposing such a quasi-evidence group violates privacy also depends on sender-specified disclosure policies. We introduce QuasiLeak-Bench, a benchmark for policy-conditioned quasi-evidence group recovery, which evaluates whether detectors recover complete quasi-evidence groups and flag the disclosures the given policy prohibits. To obtain reliable ground truth at scale, a reverse-construction pipeline first selects weak quasi-identifiers, composes them into quasi-evidence groups verified to jointly reveal a target attribute, and generates documents around this evidence, followed by automated quality control. Experiments show that existing privacy detectors transfer poorly to QuasiLeak-Bench, and locally deployable LLM-based detectors fall far behind proprietary models, mainly because they miss most quasi-evidence groups altogether. However, a 4B model fine-tuned on our training split surpasses the strongest prompted model on held-out documents, showing that the task is learnable.

On-policy distillation (OPD) trains a student to match a teacher's next-token distributions on student-generated trajectories. However, privileged information supplied to the teacher for OPD training may contain sensitive data. Whether the student leaks private information about the records supplied to the teacher during distillation remains poorly understood. To the best of our knowledge, we present the first systematic study of membership inference in this setting. We find that fresh student trajectories expose sparse membership signals that fixed reference-answer losses often miss. These signals are mixed with probability changes caused by training on other records. We introduce Leaky, which samples fresh trajectories from the target model and compares its token log-probabilities with the maximum across matched reference models trained without the candidate records. It applies Leaky ReLU to the resulting gaps, preserving positive gaps and downweighting negative gaps as an approximate correction for incidental positive gaps in non-members. Across fifteen targets spanning mathematics, medical question answering, and code generation, Leaky outperforms all evaluated baselines and achieves mean AUROC 0.875, compared with 0.614 for the strongest baseline on each target in the main evaluation. On the same sampled trajectories, the strongest baseline achieves mean AUROC 0.826. These results show that students trained through OPD can expose the membership of records used for teacher supervision, even when fixed reference-answer losses provide little evidence of membership.

Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) improve performance on complex tasks, but they also make safety control harder at deployment time. In black-box settings, defenders cannot modify model weights and must instead intervene at inference time. This setting creates three practical challenges: harmful intent may be hidden by educational or role-play framing, deep safety analysis can introduce non-trivial latency, and long adversarial contexts can dilute the local cues that simpler filters rely on. These challenges can expose an apparent thinking--output gap, where the model appears cautious during reasoning but still produces an unsafe final answer. To address this problem, we propose Safety Context Injection (SCI), an inference-time framework that separates safety assessment from task generation and prepends a structured external risk report as injected safety context for the protected model. The framework is instantiated in two complementary variants: Static Model Filtering (SMF), a lightweight one-pass guard for fast deployment, and Dynamic Agents Filtering (DAF), an agentic-loop-based analyzer that iteratively gathers and synthesizes evidence for ambiguous or long-context attacks. Across AdvBench and GPTFuzz, spanning base and reasoning models under five jailbreak families, both variants reduce attack success rate and toxicity in the evaluated settings. SMF offers an efficient low-latency option, while DAF is more effective when harmful intent is semantically disguised or dispersed across long contexts.

We explore whether Large Language Models (LLMs) are capable of logical reasoning with distorted facts, which we call Deduction under Perturbed Evidence (DUPE). DUPE presents a unique challenge to LLMs since they typically rely on their parameters, which encode mostly accurate information, to reason and make inferences. However, in DUPE, LLMs must reason over manipulated or falsified evidence present in their prompts, which can result in false conclusions that are valid only under the manipulated evidence. Our goal with DUPE is to determine whether LLMs can arrive at these false conclusions and identify whether the dominant factor influencing the deduction process is the encoded data in the parameters or the manipulated evidence in the prompts. To evaluate the DUPE capabilities of LLMs, we create a DUPEd version of the StrategyQA dataset, where facts are manipulated to reverse the answer to the question. Our findings show that even the most advanced GPT models struggle to reason on manipulated facts - showcasing poor DUPE skills - with accuracy dropping by 45% compared to the original dataset. We also investigate prompt settings inspired from student simulation models, which mitigate the accuracy drop to some extent. Our findings have practical implications for understanding the performance of LLMs in real-world applications such as student simulation models that involve reasoning over inaccurate information.

Human reasoning often involves working over limited information to arrive at probabilistic conclusions. In its simplest form, this involves making an inference that is not strictly entailed by a premise, but rather only likely given the premise. While reasoning LLMs have demonstrated strong performance on logical and mathematical tasks, their behavior on such open-ended, non-deterministic inferences remains largely unexplored. We introduce ProbCOPA, a dataset of 210 handcrafted probabilistic inferences in English, each annotated for inference likelihood by 25--30 human participants. We find that human responses are graded and varied, revealing probabilistic judgments of the inferences in our dataset. Comparing these judgments with responses from eight state-of-the-art reasoning LLMs, we show that models consistently fail to produce human-like distributions. Finally, analyzing LLM reasoning chains, we find evidence of a common reasoning pattern used to evaluate such inferences. Our findings reveal persistent differences between humans and LLMs, and underscore the need to evaluate reasoning beyond deterministic settings.

Visual inputs in vision-language models (VLMs) are often encoded into substantially longer token sequences than text, making visual tokens a major bottleneck for efficient inference. Abundant recent methods address this bottleneck by scoring token importance and pruning low-scoring tokens in a single pass. However, one-shot scoring is insufficient because a token's prompt-relevant usefulness depends on the evidence already retained. Motivated by this insight, we introduce DIVE (Dynamic Iterative Visual Evidence Construction), a training-free framework that recasts visual-token pruning as dynamic evidence construction. DIVE repeatedly selects the remaining token with the highest residual-conditioned score, updates the visual and prompt residuals to discount the evidence already explained, and re-evaluates the remaining tokens. This select-update-re-evaluate process builds a retained set of complementary, prompt-relevant evidence. Experiments across eight image-understanding benchmarks show that DIVE consistently preserves performance across token budgets. With an 88.9% reduction in visual tokens, DIVE retains 98.2% of the uncompressed model's average performance. Code is available at https://github.com/Zhong-Chenchen/DIVE.git.

Reviewing contracts is a time-consuming procedure that incurs large expenses to companies and social inequality to those who cannot afford it. In this work, we propose "document-level natural language inference (NLI) for contracts", a novel, real-world application of NLI that addresses such problems. In this task, a system is given a set of hypotheses (such as "Some obligations of Agreement may survive termination.") and a contract, and it is asked to classify whether each hypothesis is "entailed by", "contradicting to" or "not mentioned by" (neutral to) the contract as well as identifying "evidence" for the decision as spans in the contract. We annotated and release the largest corpus to date consisting of 607 annotated contracts. We then show that existing models fail badly on our task and introduce a strong baseline, which (1) models evidence identification as multi-label classification over spans instead of trying to predict start and end tokens, and (2) employs more sophisticated context segmentation for dealing with long documents. We also show that linguistic characteristics of contracts, such as negations by exceptions, are contributing to the difficulty of this task and that there is much room for improvement.

Suppose Alice trains an open-weight language model and Bob uses a blackbox derivative of Alice's model to produce text. Can Alice prove that Bob is using her model, either by querying Bob's derivative model (query setting) or from the text alone (observational setting)? We formulate this question as an independence testing problem--in which the null hypothesis is that Bob's model or text is independent of Alice's randomized training run--and investigate it through the lens of palimpsestic memorization in language models: models are more likely to memorize data seen later in training, so we can test whether Bob is using Alice's model using test statistics that capture correlation between Bob's model or text and the ordering of training examples in Alice's training run. If Alice has randomly shuffled her training data, then any significant correlation amounts to exactly quantifiable statistical evidence against the null hypothesis, regardless of the composition of Alice's training data. In the query setting, we directly estimate (via prompting) the likelihood Bob's model gives to Alice's training examples and order; we correlate the likelihoods of over 40 fine-tunes of various Pythia and OLMo base models ranging from 1B to 12B parameters with the base model's training data order, achieving a p-value on the order of at most 1e-8 in all but six cases. In the observational setting, we try two approaches based on estimating 1) the likelihood of Bob's text overlapping with spans of Alice's training examples and 2) the likelihood of Bob's text with respect to different versions of Alice's model we obtain by repeating the last phase (e.g., 1%) of her training run on reshuffled data. The second approach can reliably distinguish Bob's text from as little as a few hundred tokens; the first does not involve any retraining but requires many more tokens (several hundred thousand) to achieve high power.

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated significant success in complex reasoning tasks such as math and coding. In contrast to these tasks where deductive reasoning predominates, inductive reasoning-the ability to derive general rules from incomplete evidence, remains underexplored. This paper investigates extended inductive reasoning in LLMs through the lens of personalized preference inference, a critical challenge in LLM alignment where current approaches struggle to capture diverse user preferences. The task demands strong inductive reasoning capabilities as user preferences are typically embedded implicitly across various interaction forms, requiring models to synthesize consistent preference patterns from scattered signals. We propose AlignXplore, a model that leverages extended reasoning chains to enable systematic preference inference from behavioral signals in users' interaction histories. Such explicit preference articulation enables efficient streaming inference: when new behavioral signals emerge, the model can directly build upon previously inferred preference descriptions rather than reprocessing historical signals from scratch, while also supporting iterative refinement to the inferred preferences. We develop AlignXplore by combining cold-start training based on synthetic data with subsequent online reinforcement learning. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate that AlignXplore achieves substantial improvements over the backbone model by an average of 15.49\% on in-domain and out-of-domain benchmarks, while maintaining strong generalization ability across different input formats and downstream models. Further analyses establish best practices for preference inference learning through systematic comparison of reward modeling strategies, while revealing the emergence of human-like inductive reasoning patterns during training.

Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) systems remain brittle under realistic retrieval noise, even when the required evidence appears in the top-K results. A key reason is that retrievers and rerankers optimize solely for relevance, often selecting either trivial, answer-revealing passages or evidence that lacks the critical information required to answer the question, without considering whether the evidence is suitable for the generator. We propose BAR-RAG, which reframes the reranker as a boundary-aware evidence selector that targets the generator's Goldilocks Zone -- evidence that is neither trivially easy nor fundamentally unanswerable for the generator, but is challenging yet sufficient for inference and thus provides the strongest learning signal. BAR-RAG trains the selector with reinforcement learning using generator feedback, and adopts a two-stage pipeline that fine-tunes the generator under the induced evidence distribution to mitigate the distribution mismatch between training and inference. Experiments on knowledge-intensive question answering benchmarks show that BAR-RAG consistently improves end-to-end performance under noisy retrieval, achieving an average gain of 10.3 percent over strong RAG and reranking baselines while substantially improving robustness. Code is publicly avaliable at https://github.com/GasolSun36/BAR-RAG.

Long video question answering (Long-Video QA) increasingly relies on agentic tool use to retrieve evidence from long videos. In realistic settings, this process often requires multi-hop retrieval, where agents must iteratively gather multiple discontinuous evidence clips. However, existing long-video benchmarks are largely static: they rarely enforce strict multi-hop retrieval and typically lack a standardized evidence-access interface, making it difficult to separate failures in retrieval planning from those in answer generation. To address this gap, we introduce LongVidSearch, a benchmark for evaluating agentic multi-hop evidence retrieval planning in long videos under standardized access constraints. LongVidSearch enforces retrieval necessity: a Hop-k question requires exactly k necessary evidence clips, and removing any single clip renders the question unsolvable. The benchmark contains 3,000 questions over 447 long videos (average length 26 minutes), covering four reasoning categories: State Mutation, Causal Inference, Global Summary, and Visual Tracking, with 2-hop, 3-hop, and 4-hop evidence requirements. To ensure fair and controlled evaluation, all agents interact with LongVidSearch through a unified tool interface, which fixes the retrieval backend and isolates the agent's ability to formulate queries and plan iterative retrieval. In addition to answer accuracy, we measure tool-call cost to analyze the accuracy-efficiency trade-off under identical access conditions. We evaluate VideoAgent-style QA agents with multiple backbone LLMs using three-judge majority voting. GPT-5 achieves the highest accuracy (42.43), outperforming Gemini 3 Pro (30.97) and GPT-4o (19.20), yet remaining below 50 %, highlighting the difficulty of multi-hop retrieval planning. With gold evidence clips, performance becomes near-perfect, confirming retrieval planning as the primary bottleneck.