Daily Papers

The premise of identifiable and causal representation learning is to improve the current representation learning paradigm in terms of generalizability or robustness. Despite recent progress in questions of identifiability, more theoretical results demonstrating concrete advantages of these methods for downstream tasks are needed. In this paper, we consider the task of intervention extrapolation: predicting how interventions affect an outcome, even when those interventions are not observed at training time, and show that identifiable representations can provide an effective solution to this task even if the interventions affect the outcome non-linearly. Our setup includes an outcome Y, observed features X, which are generated as a non-linear transformation of latent features Z, and exogenous action variables A, which influence Z. The objective of intervention extrapolation is to predict how interventions on A that lie outside the training support of A affect Y. Here, extrapolation becomes possible if the effect of A on Z is linear and the residual when regressing Z on A has full support. As Z is latent, we combine the task of intervention extrapolation with identifiable representation learning, which we call Rep4Ex: we aim to map the observed features X into a subspace that allows for non-linear extrapolation in A. We show that the hidden representation is identifiable up to an affine transformation in Z-space, which is sufficient for intervention extrapolation. The identifiability is characterized by a novel constraint describing the linearity assumption of A on Z. Based on this insight, we propose a method that enforces the linear invariance constraint and can be combined with any type of autoencoder. We validate our theoretical findings through synthetic experiments and show that our approach succeeds in predicting the effects of unseen interventions.

Off-policy evaluation (OPE) is a method for estimating the return of a target policy using some pre-collected observational data generated by a potentially different behavior policy. In some cases, there may be unmeasured variables that can confound the action-reward or action-next-state relationships, rendering many existing OPE approaches ineffective. This paper develops an instrumental variable (IV)-based method for consistent OPE in confounded Markov decision processes (MDPs). Similar to single-stage decision making, we show that IV enables us to correctly identify the target policy's value in infinite horizon settings as well. Furthermore, we propose an efficient and robust value estimator and illustrate its effectiveness through extensive simulations and analysis of real data from a world-leading short-video platform.

Deep models have demonstrated remarkable performance in time series forecasting. However, due to the partially-observed nature of real-world applications, solely focusing on the target of interest, so-called endogenous variables, is usually insufficient to guarantee accurate forecasting. Notably, a system is often recorded into multiple variables, where the exogenous variables can provide valuable external information for endogenous variables. Thus, unlike well-established multivariate or univariate forecasting paradigms that either treat all the variables equally or ignore exogenous information, this paper focuses on a more practical setting: time series forecasting with exogenous variables. We propose a novel approach, TimeXer, to ingest external information to enhance the forecasting of endogenous variables. With deftly designed embedding layers, TimeXer empowers the canonical Transformer with the ability to reconcile endogenous and exogenous information, where patch-wise self-attention and variate-wise cross-attention are used simultaneously. Moreover, global endogenous tokens are learned to effectively bridge the causal information underlying exogenous series into endogenous temporal patches. Experimentally, TimeXer achieves consistent state-of-the-art performance on twelve real-world forecasting benchmarks and exhibits notable generality and scalability. Code is available at this repository: https://github.com/thuml/TimeXer.

This work addresses the challenge of forecasting urban water dynamics by developing a multi-input, multi-output deep learning model that incorporates both endogenous variables (e.g., water height or discharge) and exogenous factors (e.g., precipitation history and forecast reports). Unlike conventional forecasting, the proposed model, AquaCast, captures both inter-variable and temporal dependencies across all inputs, while focusing forecast solely on endogenous variables. Exogenous inputs are fused via an embedding layer, eliminating the need to forecast them and enabling the model to attend to their short-term influences more effectively. We evaluate our approach on the LausanneCity dataset, which includes measurements from four urban drainage sensors, and demonstrate state-of-the-art performance when using only endogenous variables. Performance also improves with the inclusion of exogenous variables and forecast reports. To assess generalization and scalability, we additionally test the model on three large-scale synthesized datasets, generated from MeteoSwiss records, the Lorenz Attractors model, and the Random Fields model, each representing a different level of temporal complexity across 100 nodes. The results confirm that our model consistently outperforms existing baselines and maintains a robust and accurate forecast across both real and synthetic datasets.

The technique of data augmentation (DA) is often used in machine learning for regularization purposes to better generalize under i.i.d. settings. In this work, we present a unifying framework with topics in causal inference to make a case for the use of DA beyond just the i.i.d. setting, but for generalization across interventions as well. Specifically, we argue that when the outcome generating mechanism is invariant to our choice of DA, then such augmentations can effectively be thought of as interventions on the treatment generating mechanism itself. This can potentially help to reduce bias in causal effect estimation arising from hidden confounders. In the presence of such unobserved confounding we typically make use of instrumental variables (IVs) -- sources of treatment randomization that are conditionally independent of the outcome. However, IVs may not be as readily available as DA for many applications, which is the main motivation behind this work. By appropriately regularizing IV based estimators, we introduce the concept of IV-like (IVL) regression for mitigating confounding bias and improving predictive performance across interventions even when certain IV properties are relaxed. Finally, we cast parameterized DA as an IVL regression problem and show that when used in composition can simulate a worst-case application of such DA, further improving performance on causal estimation and generalization tasks beyond what simple DA may offer. This is shown both theoretically for the population case and via simulation experiments for the finite sample case using a simple linear example. We also present real data experiments to support our case.

We study off-policy evaluation (OPE) of contextual bandit policies for large discrete action spaces where conventional importance-weighting approaches suffer from excessive variance. To circumvent this variance issue, we propose a new estimator, called OffCEM, that is based on the conjunct effect model (CEM), a novel decomposition of the causal effect into a cluster effect and a residual effect. OffCEM applies importance weighting only to action clusters and addresses the residual causal effect through model-based reward estimation. We show that the proposed estimator is unbiased under a new condition, called local correctness, which only requires that the residual-effect model preserves the relative expected reward differences of the actions within each cluster. To best leverage the CEM and local correctness, we also propose a new two-step procedure for performing model-based estimation that minimizes bias in the first step and variance in the second step. We find that the resulting OffCEM estimator substantially improves bias and variance compared to a range of conventional estimators. Experiments demonstrate that OffCEM provides substantial improvements in OPE especially in the presence of many actions.

Recommendation systems (RS) aim to provide personalized content, but they face a challenge in unbiased learning due to selection bias, where users only interact with items they prefer. This bias leads to a distorted representation of user preferences, which hinders the accuracy and fairness of recommendations. To address the issue, various methods such as error imputation based, inverse propensity scoring, and doubly robust techniques have been developed. Despite the progress, from the structural causal model perspective, previous debiasing methods in RS assume the independence of the exogenous variables. In this paper, we release this assumption and propose a learning algorithm based on likelihood maximization to learn a prediction model. We first discuss the correlation and difference between unmeasured confounding and our scenario, then we propose a unified method that effectively handles latent exogenous variables. Specifically, our method models the data generation process with latent exogenous variables under mild normality assumptions. We then develop a Monte Carlo algorithm to numerically estimate the likelihood function. Extensive experiments on synthetic datasets and three real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed method. The code is at https://github.com/WallaceSUI/kdd25-background-variable.

An essential and challenging problem in causal inference is causal effect estimation from observational data. The problem becomes more difficult with the presence of unobserved confounding variables. The front-door adjustment is a practical approach for dealing with unobserved confounding variables. However, the restriction for the standard front-door adjustment is difficult to satisfy in practice. In this paper, we relax some of the restrictions by proposing the concept of conditional front-door (CFD) adjustment and develop the theorem that guarantees the causal effect identifiability of CFD adjustment. Furthermore, as it is often impossible for a CFD variable to be given in practice, it is desirable to learn it from data. By leveraging the ability of deep generative models, we propose CFDiVAE to learn the representation of the CFD adjustment variable directly from data with the identifiable Variational AutoEncoder and formally prove the model identifiability. Extensive experiments on synthetic datasets validate the effectiveness of CFDiVAE and its superiority over existing methods. The experiments also show that the performance of CFDiVAE is less sensitive to the causal strength of unobserved confounding variables. We further apply CFDiVAE to a real-world dataset to demonstrate its potential application.

Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) in simulation often results in brittle and unrealistic learning outcomes. To push the agent towards more desirable solutions, prior information can be injected in the learning process through, for instance, reward shaping, expert data, or motion primitives. We propose an additional inductive bias for robot learning: latent actions learned from expert demonstration as priors in the action space. We show that these action priors can be learned from only a single open-loop gait cycle using a simple autoencoder. Using these latent action priors combined with established style rewards for imitation in DRL achieves above expert demonstration level of performance and leads to more desirable gaits. Further, action priors substantially improve the performance on transfer tasks, even leading to gait transitions for higher target speeds. Videos and code are available at https://sites.google.com/view/latent-action-priors.

Indirect experiments provide a valuable framework for estimating treatment effects in situations where conducting randomized control trials (RCTs) is impractical or unethical. Unlike RCTs, indirect experiments estimate treatment effects by leveraging (conditional) instrumental variables, enabling estimation through encouragement and recommendation rather than strict treatment assignment. However, the sample efficiency of such estimators depends not only on the inherent variability in outcomes but also on the varying compliance levels of users with the instrumental variables and the choice of estimator being used, especially when dealing with numerous instrumental variables. While adaptive experiment design has a rich literature for direct experiments, in this paper we take the initial steps towards enhancing sample efficiency for indirect experiments by adaptively designing a data collection policy over instrumental variables. Our main contribution is a practical computational procedure that utilizes influence functions to search for an optimal data collection policy, minimizing the mean-squared error of the desired (non-linear) estimator. Through experiments conducted in various domains inspired by real-world applications, we showcase how our method can significantly improve the sample efficiency of indirect experiments.

We explore algorithms to select actions in the causal bandit setting where the learner can choose to intervene on a set of random variables related by a causal graph, and the learner sequentially chooses interventions and observes a sample from the interventional distribution. The learner's goal is to quickly find the intervention, among all interventions on observable variables, that maximizes the expectation of an outcome variable. We depart from previous literature by assuming no knowledge of the causal graph except that latent confounders between the outcome and its ancestors are not present. We first show that the unknown graph problem can be exponentially hard in the parents of the outcome. To remedy this, we adopt an additional additive assumption on the outcome which allows us to solve the problem by casting it as an additive combinatorial linear bandit problem with full-bandit feedback. We propose a novel action-elimination algorithm for this setting, show how to apply this algorithm to the causal bandit problem, provide sample complexity bounds, and empirically validate our findings on a suite of randomly generated causal models, effectively showing that one does not need to explicitly learn the parents of the outcome to identify the best intervention.

Learning from off-policy data is essential for sample-efficient reinforcement learning. In the present work, we build on the insight that the advantage function can be understood as the causal effect of an action on the return, and show that this allows us to decompose the return of a trajectory into parts caused by the agent's actions (skill) and parts outside of the agent's control (luck). Furthermore, this decomposition enables us to naturally extend Direct Advantage Estimation (DAE) to off-policy settings (Off-policy DAE). The resulting method can learn from off-policy trajectories without relying on importance sampling techniques or truncating off-policy actions. We draw connections between Off-policy DAE and previous methods to demonstrate how it can speed up learning and when the proposed off-policy corrections are important. Finally, we use the MinAtar environments to illustrate how ignoring off-policy corrections can lead to suboptimal policy optimization performance.

Conventional supervised learning methods typically assume i.i.d samples and are found to be sensitive to out-of-distribution (OOD) data. We propose Generative Causal Representation Learning (GCRL) which leverages causality to facilitate knowledge transfer under distribution shifts. While we evaluate the effectiveness of our proposed method in human trajectory prediction models, GCRL can be applied to other domains as well. First, we propose a novel causal model that explains the generative factors in motion forecasting datasets using features that are common across all environments and with features that are specific to each environment. Selection variables are used to determine which parts of the model can be directly transferred to a new environment without fine-tuning. Second, we propose an end-to-end variational learning paradigm to learn the causal mechanisms that generate observations from features. GCRL is supported by strong theoretical results that imply identifiability of the causal model under certain assumptions. Experimental results on synthetic and real-world motion forecasting datasets show the robustness and effectiveness of our proposed method for knowledge transfer under zero-shot and low-shot settings by substantially outperforming the prior motion forecasting models on out-of-distribution prediction. Our code is available at https://github.com/sshirahmad/GCRL.

Covariates provide valuable information on external factors that influence time series and are critical in many real-world time series forecasting tasks. For example, in retail, covariates may indicate promotions or peak dates such as holiday seasons that heavily influence demand forecasts. Recent advances in pretraining large language model architectures for time series forecasting have led to highly accurate forecasters. However, the majority of these models do not readily use covariates as they are often specific to a certain task or domain. This paper introduces a new method to incorporate covariates into pretrained time series forecasting models. Our proposed approach incorporates covariate information into pretrained forecasting models through modular blocks that inject past and future covariate information, without necessarily modifying the pretrained model in consideration. In order to evaluate our approach, we introduce a benchmark composed of 32 different synthetic datasets with varying dynamics to evaluate the effectivity of forecasting models with covariates. Extensive evaluations on both synthetic and real datasets show that our approach effectively incorporates covariate information into pretrained models, outperforming existing baselines.

In an effort to better understand the different ways in which the discount factor affects the optimization process in reinforcement learning, we designed a set of experiments to study each effect in isolation. Our analysis reveals that the common perception that poor performance of low discount factors is caused by (too) small action-gaps requires revision. We propose an alternative hypothesis that identifies the size-difference of the action-gap across the state-space as the primary cause. We then introduce a new method that enables more homogeneous action-gaps by mapping value estimates to a logarithmic space. We prove convergence for this method under standard assumptions and demonstrate empirically that it indeed enables lower discount factors for approximate reinforcement-learning methods. This in turn allows tackling a class of reinforcement-learning problems that are challenging to solve with traditional methods.

Mediation analysis learns the causal effect transmitted via mediator variables between treatments and outcomes and receives increasing attention in various scientific domains to elucidate causal relations. Most existing works focus on point-exposure studies where each subject only receives one treatment at a single time point. However, there are a number of applications (e.g., mobile health) where the treatments are sequentially assigned over time and the dynamic mediation effects are of primary interest. Proposing a reinforcement learning (RL) framework, we are the first to evaluate dynamic mediation effects in settings with infinite horizons. We decompose the average treatment effect into an immediate direct effect, an immediate mediation effect, a delayed direct effect, and a delayed mediation effect. Upon the identification of each effect component, we further develop robust and semi-parametrically efficient estimators under the RL framework to infer these causal effects. The superior performance of the proposed method is demonstrated through extensive numerical studies, theoretical results, and an analysis of a mobile health dataset.

Large language models are being widely used across industries to generate content that contributes directly to key performance metrics, such as conversion rates. Pretrained models, however, often fall short when it comes to aligning with human preferences or optimizing for business objectives. As a result, fine-tuning with good-quality labeled data is essential to guide models to generate content that achieves better results. Controlled experiments, like A/B tests, can provide such data, but they are often expensive and come with significant engineering and logistical challenges. Meanwhile, companies have access to a vast amount of historical (observational) data that remains underutilized. In this work, we study the challenges and opportunities of fine-tuning LLMs using observational data. We show that while observational outcomes can provide valuable supervision, directly fine-tuning models on such data can lead them to learn spurious correlations. We present empirical evidence of this issue using various real-world datasets and propose DeconfoundLM, a method that explicitly removes the effect of known confounders from reward signals. Using simulation experiments, we demonstrate that DeconfoundLM improves the recovery of causal relationships and mitigates failure modes found in fine-tuning methods that ignore or naively incorporate confounding variables. Our findings highlight that while observational data presents risks, with the right causal corrections, it can be a powerful source of signal for LLM alignment. Please refer to the project page for code and related resources.

We tackle the challenge of large-scale network intervention for guiding excitatory point processes, such as infectious disease spread or traffic congestion control. Our model-based reinforcement learning utilizes neural ODEs to capture how the networked excitatory point processes will evolve subject to the time-varying changes in network topology. Our approach incorporates Gradient-Descent based Model Predictive Control (GD-MPC), offering policy flexibility to accommodate prior knowledge and constraints. To address the intricacies of planning and overcome the high dimensionality inherent to such decision-making problems, we design an Amortize Network Interventions (ANI) framework, allowing for the pooling of optimal policies from history and other contexts, while ensuring a permutation equivalent property. This property enables efficient knowledge transfer and sharing across diverse contexts. Our approach has broad applications, from curbing infectious disease spread to reducing carbon emissions through traffic light optimization, and thus has the potential to address critical societal and environmental challenges.

Recent improvements in conditional generative modeling have made it possible to generate high-quality images from language descriptions alone. We investigate whether these methods can directly address the problem of sequential decision-making. We view decision-making not through the lens of reinforcement learning (RL), but rather through conditional generative modeling. To our surprise, we find that our formulation leads to policies that can outperform existing offline RL approaches across standard benchmarks. By modeling a policy as a return-conditional diffusion model, we illustrate how we may circumvent the need for dynamic programming and subsequently eliminate many of the complexities that come with traditional offline RL. We further demonstrate the advantages of modeling policies as conditional diffusion models by considering two other conditioning variables: constraints and skills. Conditioning on a single constraint or skill during training leads to behaviors at test-time that can satisfy several constraints together or demonstrate a composition of skills. Our results illustrate that conditional generative modeling is a powerful tool for decision-making.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are powerful reasoners in natural language, but their actions are typically confined to outputting vocabulary tokens. As a result, interactions with external environments -- such as symbolic operators or simulators -- must be expressed through text in predefined formats, parsed, and routed to external interfaces. This overloads the model's language with both reasoning and control duties, and requires a hand-crafted parser, external to the LLM. To address this, we decouple environment interactions from language by internalizing them in an Expanded Action space (ExpA), beyond the vocabulary. The model starts reasoning in the default language environment, but may trigger routing actions and switch to an external environment at any time. From there, the model can only invoke environment-specific actions, receive feedback from the environment, and potentially route back to language as a result. To promote effective exploration of the expanded action space and new environments, we introduce ExpA Reinforcement Learning (EARL) with counterfactual policy optimization. On tasks requiring multi-turn interactions and contingent planning, EARL outperforms strong baselines with vocabulary-constrained actions. It performs robustly across calculator-based multi-task learning and, in the partially observed sorting problem, achieves perfect Sort-4 accuracy while self-discovering an efficient algorithm competitive with classical designs.

Causal inference plays a vital role in diverse domains like epidemiology, healthcare, and economics. De-confounding and counterfactual prediction in observational data has emerged as a prominent concern in causal inference research. While existing models tackle observed confounders, the presence of unobserved confounders remains a significant challenge, distorting causal inference and impacting counterfactual outcome accuracy. To address this, we propose a novel variational learning model of unobserved confounders for counterfactual inference (VLUCI), which generates the posterior distribution of unobserved confounders. VLUCI relaxes the unconfoundedness assumption often overlooked by most causal inference methods. By disentangling observed and unobserved confounders, VLUCI constructs a doubly variational inference model to approximate the distribution of unobserved confounders, which are used for inferring more accurate counterfactual outcomes. Extensive experiments on synthetic and semi-synthetic datasets demonstrate VLUCI's superior performance in inferring unobserved confounders. It is compatible with state-of-the-art counterfactual inference models, significantly improving inference accuracy at both group and individual levels. Additionally, VLUCI provides confidence intervals for counterfactual outcomes, aiding decision-making in risk-sensitive domains. We further clarify the considerations when applying VLUCI to cases where unobserved confounders don't strictly conform to our model assumptions using the public IHDP dataset as an example, highlighting the practical advantages of VLUCI.

The varying significance of distinct primitive behaviors during the policy learning process has been overlooked by prior model-free RL algorithms. Leveraging this insight, we explore the causal relationship between different action dimensions and rewards to evaluate the significance of various primitive behaviors during training. We introduce a causality-aware entropy term that effectively identifies and prioritizes actions with high potential impacts for efficient exploration. Furthermore, to prevent excessive focus on specific primitive behaviors, we analyze the gradient dormancy phenomenon and introduce a dormancy-guided reset mechanism to further enhance the efficacy of our method. Our proposed algorithm, ACE: Off-policy Actor-critic with Causality-aware Entropy regularization, demonstrates a substantial performance advantage across 29 diverse continuous control tasks spanning 7 domains compared to model-free RL baselines, which underscores the effectiveness, versatility, and efficient sample efficiency of our approach. Benchmark results and videos are available at https://ace-rl.github.io/.

Visual-Language-Action (VLA) models have emerged as a popular paradigm for learning robot manipulation policies that can follow language instructions and generalize to novel scenarios. Recent work has begun to explore the incorporation of latent actions, an abstract representation of visual change between two frames, into VLA pre-training. In this paper, we introduce villa-X, a novel Visual-Language-Latent-Action (ViLLA) framework that advances latent action modeling for learning generalizable robot manipulation policies. Our approach improves both how latent actions are learned and how they are incorporated into VLA pre-training. Together, these contributions enable villa-X to achieve superior performance across simulated environments including SIMPLER and LIBERO, as well as on two real-world robot setups including gripper and dexterous hand manipulation. We believe the ViLLA paradigm holds significant promise, and that our villa-X provides a strong foundation for future research.

Conditional visual generation has witnessed remarkable progress with the advent of diffusion models (DMs), especially in tasks like control-to-image generation. However, challenges such as expensive computational cost, high inference latency, and difficulties of integration with large language models (LLMs) have necessitated exploring alternatives to DMs. This paper introduces ControlVAR, a novel framework that explores pixel-level controls in visual autoregressive (VAR) modeling for flexible and efficient conditional generation. In contrast to traditional conditional models that learn the conditional distribution, ControlVAR jointly models the distribution of image and pixel-level conditions during training and imposes conditional controls during testing. To enhance the joint modeling, we adopt the next-scale AR prediction paradigm and unify control and image representations. A teacher-forcing guidance strategy is proposed to further facilitate controllable generation with joint modeling. Extensive experiments demonstrate the superior efficacy and flexibility of ControlVAR across various conditional generation tasks against popular conditional DMs, \eg, ControlNet and T2I-Adaptor. Code: https://github.com/lxa9867/ControlVAR.

Recent advances in Large Language Models (LLMs) have sparked concerns over their potential to acquire and misuse dangerous or high-risk capabilities, posing frontier risks. Current safety evaluations primarily test for what a model can do - its capabilities - without assessing what it would do if endowed with high-risk capabilities. This leaves a critical blind spot: models may strategically conceal capabilities or rapidly acquire them, while harboring latent inclinations toward misuse. We argue that propensity - the likelihood of a model to pursue harmful actions if empowered - is a critical, yet underexplored, axis of safety evaluation. We present PropensityBench, a novel benchmark framework that assesses the proclivity of models to engage in risky behaviors when equipped with simulated dangerous capabilities using proxy tools. Our framework includes 5,874 scenarios with 6,648 tools spanning four high-risk domains: cybersecurity, self-proliferation, biosecurity, and chemical security. We simulate access to powerful capabilities via a controlled agentic environment and evaluate the models' choices under varying operational pressures that reflect real-world constraints or incentives models may encounter, such as resource scarcity or gaining more autonomy. Across open-source and proprietary frontier models, we uncover 9 alarming signs of propensity: models frequently choose high-risk tools when under pressure, despite lacking the capability to execute such actions unaided. These findings call for a shift from static capability audits toward dynamic propensity assessments as a prerequisite for deploying frontier AI systems safely. Our code is available at https://github.com/scaleapi/propensity-evaluation.

Estimating the impact of continuous treatment variables (e.g., dosage amount) on binary outcomes presents significant challenges in modeling and estimation because many existing approaches make strong assumptions that do not hold for certain continuous treatment variables. For instance, traditional logistic regression makes strong linearity assumptions that do not hold for continuous treatment variables like time of initiation. In this work, we propose a semiparametric regression framework that decomposes effects into two interpretable components: a prognostic score that captures baseline outcome risk based on a combination of clinical, genetic, and sociodemographic features, and a treatment-interaction score that flexibly models the optimal treatment level via a nonparametric link function. By connecting these two parametric scores with Nadaraya-Watson regression, our approach is both interpretable and flexible. The potential of our approach is demonstrated through numerical simulations that show empirical estimation convergence. We conclude by applying our approach to a real-world case study using the International Warfarin Pharmacogenomics Consortium (IWPC) dataset to show our approach's clinical utility by deriving personalized warfarin dosing recommendations that integrate both genetic and clinical data, providing insights towards enhancing patient safety and therapeutic efficacy in anticoagulation therapy.

Discrete-action reinforcement learning algorithms often falter in tasks with high-dimensional discrete action spaces due to the vast number of possible actions. A recent advancement leverages value-decomposition, a concept from multi-agent reinforcement learning, to tackle this challenge. This study delves deep into the effects of this value-decomposition, revealing that whilst it curtails the over-estimation bias inherent to Q-learning algorithms, it amplifies target variance. To counteract this, we present an ensemble of critics to mitigate target variance. Moreover, we introduce a regularisation loss that helps to mitigate the effects that exploratory actions in one dimension can have on the value of optimal actions in other dimensions. Our novel algorithm, REValueD, tested on discretised versions of the DeepMind Control Suite tasks, showcases superior performance, especially in the challenging humanoid and dog tasks. We further dissect the factors influencing REValueD's performance, evaluating the significance of the regularisation loss and the scalability of REValueD with increasing sub-actions per dimension.

Instrumental variable methods have been widely used to identify causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding. A key identification condition known as the exclusion restriction states that the instrument cannot have a direct effect on the outcome which is not mediated by the exposure in view. In the health and social sciences, such an assumption is often not credible. To address this concern, we consider identification conditions of the population average treatment effect with an invalid instrumental variable which does not satisfy the exclusion restriction, and derive the efficient influence function targeting the identifying functional under a nonparametric observed data model. We propose a novel multiply robust locally efficient estimator of the average treatment effect that is consistent in the union of multiple parametric nuisance models, as well as a multiply debiased machine learning estimator for which the nuisance parameters are estimated using generic machine learning methods, that effectively exploit various forms of linear or nonlinear structured sparsity in the nuisance parameter space. When one cannot be confident that any of these machine learners is consistent at sufficiently fast rates to ensure n-consistency for the average treatment effect, we introduce a new criteria for selective machine learning which leverages the multiple robustness property in order to ensure small bias. The proposed methods are illustrated through extensive simulations and a data analysis evaluating the causal effect of 401(k) participation on savings.

We study the variance of stochastic policy gradients (SPGs) with many action samples per state. We derive a many-actions optimality condition, which determines when many-actions SPG yields lower variance as compared to a single-action agent with proportionally extended trajectory. We propose Model-Based Many-Actions (MBMA), an approach leveraging dynamics models for many-actions sampling in the context of SPG. MBMA addresses issues associated with existing implementations of many-actions SPG and yields lower bias and comparable variance to SPG estimated from states in model-simulated rollouts. We find that MBMA bias and variance structure matches that predicted by theory. As a result, MBMA achieves improved sample efficiency and higher returns on a range of continuous action environments as compared to model-free, many-actions, and model-based on-policy SPG baselines.

Despite the remarkable advances of Large Language Models (LLMs) across diverse cognitive tasks, the rapid enhancement of these capabilities also introduces emergent deceptive behaviors that may induce severe risks in high-stakes deployments. More critically, the characterization of deception across realistic real-world scenarios remains underexplored. To bridge this gap, we establish DeceptionBench, the first benchmark that systematically evaluates how deceptive tendencies manifest across different societal domains, what their intrinsic behavioral patterns are, and how extrinsic factors affect them. Specifically, on the static count, the benchmark encompasses 150 meticulously designed scenarios in five domains, i.e., Economy, Healthcare, Education, Social Interaction, and Entertainment, with over 1,000 samples, providing sufficient empirical foundations for deception analysis. On the intrinsic dimension, we explore whether models exhibit self-interested egoistic tendencies or sycophantic behaviors that prioritize user appeasement. On the extrinsic dimension, we investigate how contextual factors modulate deceptive outputs under neutral conditions, reward-based incentivization, and coercive pressures. Moreover, we incorporate sustained multi-turn interaction loops to construct a more realistic simulation of real-world feedback dynamics. Extensive experiments across LLMs and Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) reveal critical vulnerabilities, particularly amplified deception under reinforcement dynamics, demonstrating that current models lack robust resistance to manipulative contextual cues and the urgent need for advanced safeguards against various deception behaviors. Code and resources are publicly available at https://github.com/Aries-iai/DeceptionBench.

Debates about whether development projects improve living conditions persist, partly because observational estimates can be biased by incomplete adjustment and because reliable outcome data are scarce at the neighborhood level. We address both issues in a continent-scale, sector-specific evaluation of Chinese and World Bank projects across 9,899 neighborhoods in 36 African countries (2002 to 2013), representative of 88% of the population. First, we use a recent dataset that measures living conditions with a machine-learned wealth index derived from contemporaneous satellite imagery, yielding a consistent panel of 6.7 km square mosaics. Second, to strengthen identification, we proxy officials' map-based placement criteria using pre-treatment daytime satellite images and fuse these with rich tabular covariates to estimate funder- and sector-specific ATEs via inverse-probability weighting. Incorporating imagery systematically shrinks effects relative to tabular-only models, indicating prior work likely overstated benefits. On average, both donors raise wealth, with larger gains for China; sector extremes in our sample include Trade and Tourism for the World Bank (+6.27 IWI points), and Emergency Response for China (+14.32). Assignment-mechanism analyses show World Bank placement is generally more predictable from imagery alone, as well as from tabular covariates. This suggests that Chinese project placements are more driven by non-visible, political, or event-driven factors than World Bank placements. To probe residual concerns about selection on observables, we also estimate within-neighborhood (unit) fixed-effects models at a spatial resolution about 450 times finer than prior fixed effects analyses, leveraging the computer-vision-imputed IWI panels; these deliver smaller but directionally consistent effects.

Value function factorization has achieved great success in multi-agent reinforcement learning by optimizing joint action-value functions through the maximization of factorized per-agent utilities. To ensure Individual-Global-Maximum property, existing works often focus on value factorization using monotonic functions, which are known to result in restricted representation expressiveness. In this paper, we analyze the limitations of monotonic factorization and present ConcaveQ, a novel non-monotonic value function factorization approach that goes beyond monotonic mixing functions and employs neural network representations of concave mixing functions. Leveraging the concave property in factorization, an iterative action selection scheme is developed to obtain optimal joint actions during training. It is used to update agents' local policy networks, enabling fully decentralized execution. The effectiveness of the proposed ConcaveQ is validated across scenarios involving multi-agent predator-prey environment and StarCraft II micromanagement tasks. Empirical results exhibit significant improvement of ConcaveQ over state-of-the-art multi-agent reinforcement learning approaches.

Passive observational data, such as human videos, is abundant and rich in information, yet remains largely untapped by current RL methods. Perhaps surprisingly, we show that passive data, despite not having reward or action labels, can still be used to learn features that accelerate downstream RL. Our approach learns from passive data by modeling intentions: measuring how the likelihood of future outcomes change when the agent acts to achieve a particular task. We propose a temporal difference learning objective to learn about intentions, resulting in an algorithm similar to conventional RL, but which learns entirely from passive data. When optimizing this objective, our agent simultaneously learns representations of states, of policies, and of possible outcomes in an environment, all from raw observational data. Both theoretically and empirically, this scheme learns features amenable for value prediction for downstream tasks, and our experiments demonstrate the ability to learn from many forms of passive data, including cross-embodiment video data and YouTube videos.

In image generation, Multiple Latent Variable Generative Models (MLVGMs) employ multiple latent variables to gradually shape the final images, from global characteristics to finer and local details (e.g., StyleGAN, NVAE), emerging as powerful tools for diverse applications. Yet their generative dynamics remain only empirically observed, without a systematic understanding of each latent variable's impact. In this work, we propose a novel framework that quantifies the contribution of each latent variable using Mutual Information (MI) as a metric. Our analysis reveals that current MLVGMs often underutilize some latent variables, and provides actionable insights for their use in downstream applications. With this foundation, we introduce a method for generating synthetic data for Self-Supervised Contrastive Representation Learning (SSCRL). By leveraging the hierarchical and disentangled variables of MLVGMs, our approach produces diverse and semantically meaningful views without the need for real image data. Additionally, we introduce a Continuous Sampling (CS) strategy, where the generator dynamically creates new samples during SSCRL training, greatly increasing data variability. Our comprehensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of these contributions, showing that MLVGMs' generated views compete on par with or even surpass views generated from real data. This work establishes a principled approach to understanding and exploiting MLVGMs, advancing both generative modeling and self-supervised learning. Code and pre-trained models at: https://github.com/SerezD/mi_ml_gen.

In many real-world settings, agents must learn from an offline dataset gathered by some prior behavior policy. Such a setting naturally leads to distribution shift between the behavior policy and the target policy being trained - requiring policy conservatism to avoid instability and overestimation bias. Autoregressive world models offer a different solution to this by generating synthetic, on-policy experience. However, in practice, model rollouts must be severely truncated to avoid compounding error. As an alternative, we propose policy-guided diffusion. Our method uses diffusion models to generate entire trajectories under the behavior distribution, applying guidance from the target policy to move synthetic experience further on-policy. We show that policy-guided diffusion models a regularized form of the target distribution that balances action likelihood under both the target and behavior policies, leading to plausible trajectories with high target policy probability, while retaining a lower dynamics error than an offline world model baseline. Using synthetic experience from policy-guided diffusion as a drop-in substitute for real data, we demonstrate significant improvements in performance across a range of standard offline reinforcement learning algorithms and environments. Our approach provides an effective alternative to autoregressive offline world models, opening the door to the controllable generation of synthetic training data.

Many resource management problems require sequential decision-making under uncertainty, where the only uncertainty affecting the decision outcomes are exogenous variables outside the control of the decision-maker. We model these problems as Exo-MDPs (Markov Decision Processes with Exogenous Inputs) and design a class of data-efficient algorithms for them termed Hindsight Learning (HL). Our HL algorithms achieve data efficiency by leveraging a key insight: having samples of the exogenous variables, past decisions can be revisited in hindsight to infer counterfactual consequences that can accelerate policy improvements. We compare HL against classic baselines in the multi-secretary and airline revenue management problems. We also scale our algorithms to a business-critical cloud resource management problem -- allocating Virtual Machines (VMs) to physical machines, and simulate their performance with real datasets from a large public cloud provider. We find that HL algorithms outperform domain-specific heuristics, as well as state-of-the-art reinforcement learning methods.

Uniform random exploration in decision-making systems supports off-policy learning via supervision but incurs high regret, making it impractical for many applications. Conversely, non-uniform exploration offers better immediate performance but lacks support for off-policy learning. Recent research suggests that regression oracles can bridge this gap by combining non-uniform exploration with supervised learning. In this paper, we analyze these approaches within a real-world industrial context at Adyen, a large global payments processor characterized by batch logged delayed feedback, short-term memory, and dynamic action spaces under the Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM) framework. Our analysis reveals that while regression oracles significantly improve performance, they introduce challenges due to rigid algorithmic assumptions. Specifically, we observe that as a policy improves, subsequent generations may perform worse due to shifts in the reward distribution and increased class imbalance in the training data. This degradation occurs de spite improvements in other aspects of the training data, leading to decreased performance in successive policy iterations. We further explore the long-term impact of regression oracles, identifying a potential "oscillation effect." This effect arises when regression oracles influence probability estimates and the realizability of subsequent policy models, leading to fluctuations in performance across iterations. Our findings highlight the need for more adaptable algorithms that can leverage the benefits of regression oracles without introducing instability in policy performance over time.

Instrumental variable (IV) methods are used to estimate causal effects in settings with unobserved confounding, where we cannot directly experiment on the treatment variable. Instruments are variables which only affect the outcome indirectly via the treatment variable(s). Most IV applications focus on low-dimensional treatments and crucially require at least as many instruments as treatments. This assumption is restrictive: in the natural sciences we often seek to infer causal effects of high-dimensional treatments (e.g., the effect of gene expressions or microbiota on health and disease), but can only run few experiments with a limited number of instruments (e.g., drugs or antibiotics). In such underspecified problems, the full treatment effect is not identifiable in a single experiment even in the linear case. We show that one can still reliably recover the projection of the treatment effect onto the instrumented subspace and develop techniques to consistently combine such partial estimates from different sets of instruments. We then leverage our combined estimators in an algorithm that iteratively proposes the most informative instruments at each round of experimentation to maximize the overall information about the full causal effect.

The presence of distribution shifts poses a significant challenge for deploying modern machine learning models in real-world applications. This work focuses on the target shift problem in a regression setting (Zhang et al., 2013; Nguyen et al., 2016). More specifically, the target variable y (also known as the response variable), which is continuous, has different marginal distributions in the training source and testing domain, while the conditional distribution of features x given y remains the same. While most literature focuses on classification tasks with finite target space, the regression problem has an infinite dimensional target space, which makes many of the existing methods inapplicable. In this work, we show that the continuous target shift problem can be addressed by estimating the importance weight function from an ill-posed integral equation. We propose a nonparametric regularized approach named ReTaSA to solve the ill-posed integral equation and provide theoretical justification for the estimated importance weight function. The effectiveness of the proposed method has been demonstrated with extensive numerical studies on synthetic and real-world datasets.

Modeling and generating human reactions poses a significant challenge with broad applications for computer vision and human-computer interaction. Existing methods either treat multiple individuals as a single entity, directly generating interactions, or rely solely on one person's motion to generate the other's reaction, failing to integrate the rich semantic information that underpins human interactions. Yet, these methods often fall short in adaptive responsiveness, i.e., the ability to accurately respond to diverse and dynamic interaction scenarios. Recognizing this gap, our work introduces an approach tailored to address the limitations of existing models by focusing on text-driven human reaction generation. Our model specifically generates realistic motion sequences for individuals that responding to the other's actions based on a descriptive text of the interaction scenario. The goal is to produce motion sequences that not only complement the opponent's movements but also semantically fit the described interactions. To achieve this, we present MoReact, a diffusion-based method designed to disentangle the generation of global trajectories and local motions sequentially. This approach stems from the observation that generating global trajectories first is crucial for guiding local motion, ensuring better alignment with given action and text. Furthermore, we introduce a novel interaction loss to enhance the realism of generated close interactions. Our experiments, utilizing data adapted from a two-person motion dataset, demonstrate the efficacy of our approach for this novel task, which is capable of producing realistic, diverse, and controllable reactions that not only closely match the movements of the counterpart but also adhere to the textual guidance. Please find our webpage at https://xiyan-xu.github.io/MoReactWebPage.

Self-supervised skill learning aims to acquire useful behaviors that leverage the underlying dynamics of the environment. Latent variable models, based on mutual information maximization, have been successful in this task but still struggle in the context of robotic manipulation. As it requires impacting a possibly large set of degrees of freedom composing the environment, mutual information maximization fails alone in producing useful and safe manipulation behaviors. Furthermore, tackling this by augmenting skill discovery rewards with additional rewards through a naive combination might fail to produce desired behaviors. To address this limitation, we introduce SLIM, a multi-critic learning approach for skill discovery with a particular focus on robotic manipulation. Our main insight is that utilizing multiple critics in an actor-critic framework to gracefully combine multiple reward functions leads to a significant improvement in latent-variable skill discovery for robotic manipulation while overcoming possible interference occurring among rewards which hinders convergence to useful skills. Furthermore, in the context of tabletop manipulation, we demonstrate the applicability of our novel skill discovery approach to acquire safe and efficient motor primitives in a hierarchical reinforcement learning fashion and leverage them through planning, significantly surpassing baseline approaches for skill discovery.

We present EgoExo-Fitness, a new full-body action understanding dataset, featuring fitness sequence videos recorded from synchronized egocentric and fixed exocentric (third-person) cameras. Compared with existing full-body action understanding datasets, EgoExo-Fitness not only contains videos from first-person perspectives, but also provides rich annotations. Specifically, two-level temporal boundaries are provided to localize single action videos along with sub-steps of each action. More importantly, EgoExo-Fitness introduces innovative annotations for interpretable action judgement--including technical keypoint verification, natural language comments on action execution, and action quality scores. Combining all of these, EgoExo-Fitness provides new resources to study egocentric and exocentric full-body action understanding across dimensions of "what", "when", and "how well". To facilitate research on egocentric and exocentric full-body action understanding, we construct benchmarks on a suite of tasks (i.e., action classification, action localization, cross-view sequence verification, cross-view skill determination, and a newly proposed task of guidance-based execution verification), together with detailed analysis. Code and data will be available at https://github.com/iSEE-Laboratory/EgoExo-Fitness/tree/main.

Extracting causal relationships from observed correlations is a growing area in probabilistic reasoning, originating with the seminal work of Pearl and others from the early 1990s. This paper develops a new, categorically oriented view based on a clear distinction between syntax (string diagrams) and semantics (stochastic matrices), connected via interpretations as structure-preserving functors. A key notion in the identification of causal effects is that of an intervention, whereby a variable is forcefully set to a particular value independent of any prior propensities. We represent the effect of such an intervention as an endofunctor which performs `string diagram surgery' within the syntactic category of string diagrams. This diagram surgery in turn yields a new, interventional distribution via the interpretation functor. While in general there is no way to compute interventional distributions purely from observed data, we show that this is possible in certain special cases using a calculational tool called comb disintegration. We demonstrate the use of this technique on a well-known toy example, where we predict the causal effect of smoking on cancer in the presence of a confounding common cause. After developing this specific example, we show this technique provides simple sufficient conditions for computing interventions which apply to a wide variety of situations considered in the causal inference literature.

Most existing causal discovery methods rely on the assumption of no latent confounders, limiting their applicability in solving real-life problems. In this paper, we introduce a novel, versatile framework for causal discovery that accommodates the presence of causally-related hidden variables almost everywhere in the causal network (for instance, they can be effects of observed variables), based on rank information of covariance matrix over observed variables. We start by investigating the efficacy of rank in comparison to conditional independence and, theoretically, establish necessary and sufficient conditions for the identifiability of certain latent structural patterns. Furthermore, we develop a Rank-based Latent Causal Discovery algorithm, RLCD, that can efficiently locate hidden variables, determine their cardinalities, and discover the entire causal structure over both measured and hidden ones. We also show that, under certain graphical conditions, RLCD correctly identifies the Markov Equivalence Class of the whole latent causal graph asymptotically. Experimental results on both synthetic and real-world personality data sets demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed approach in finite-sample cases.

We study regressions with multiple treatments and a set of controls that is flexible enough to purge omitted variable bias. We show that these regressions generally fail to estimate convex averages of heterogeneous treatment effects -- instead, estimates of each treatment's effect are contaminated by non-convex averages of the effects of other treatments. We discuss three estimation approaches that avoid such contamination bias, including the targeting of easiest-to-estimate weighted average effects. A re-analysis of nine empirical applications finds economically and statistically meaningful contamination bias in observational studies; contamination bias in experimental studies is more limited due to smaller variability in propensity scores.

World models, which predict transitions based on history observation and action sequences, have shown great promise in improving data efficiency for sequential decision making. However, existing world models often require extensive domain-specific training and still produce low-fidelity, coarse predictions, limiting their applicability in complex environments. In contrast, video diffusion models trained on large, internet-scale datasets have demonstrated impressive capabilities in generating high-quality videos that capture diverse real-world dynamics. In this work, we present Vid2World, a general approach for leveraging and transferring pre-trained video diffusion models into interactive world models. To bridge the gap, Vid2World performs casualization of a pre-trained video diffusion model by crafting its architecture and training objective to enable autoregressive generation. Furthermore, it introduces a causal action guidance mechanism to enhance action controllability in the resulting interactive world model. Extensive experiments in robot manipulation and game simulation domains show that our method offers a scalable and effective approach for repurposing highly capable video diffusion models to interactive world models.

Current Reinforcement Learning (RL) methods often suffer from sample-inefficiency, resulting from blind exploration strategies that neglect causal relationships among states, actions, and rewards. Although recent causal approaches aim to address this problem, they lack grounded modeling of reward-guided causal understanding of states and actions for goal-orientation, thus impairing learning efficiency. To tackle this issue, we propose a novel method named Causal Information Prioritization (CIP) that improves sample efficiency by leveraging factored MDPs to infer causal relationships between different dimensions of states and actions with respect to rewards, enabling the prioritization of causal information. Specifically, CIP identifies and leverages causal relationships between states and rewards to execute counterfactual data augmentation to prioritize high-impact state features under the causal understanding of the environments. Moreover, CIP integrates a causality-aware empowerment learning objective, which significantly enhances the agent's execution of reward-guided actions for more efficient exploration in complex environments. To fully assess the effectiveness of CIP, we conduct extensive experiments across 39 tasks in 5 diverse continuous control environments, encompassing both locomotion and manipulation skills learning with pixel-based and sparse reward settings. Experimental results demonstrate that CIP consistently outperforms existing RL methods across a wide range of scenarios.

Can we turn a video prediction model into a robot policy? Videos, including those of humans or teleoperated robots, capture rich physical interactions. However, most of them lack labeled actions, which limits their use in robot learning. We present Video Prediction for Robot Actions (ViPRA), a simple pretraining-finetuning framework that learns continuous robot control from these actionless videos. Instead of directly predicting actions, we train a video-language model to predict both future visual observations and motion-centric latent actions, which serve as intermediate representations of scene dynamics. We train these latent actions using perceptual losses and optical flow consistency to ensure they reflect physically grounded behavior. For downstream control, we introduce a chunked flow matching decoder that maps latent actions to robot-specific continuous action sequences, using only 100 to 200 teleoperated demonstrations. This approach avoids expensive action annotation, supports generalization across embodiments, and enables smooth, high-frequency continuous control upto 22 Hz via chunked action decoding. Unlike prior latent action works that treat pretraining as autoregressive policy learning, explicitly models both what changes and how. Our method outperforms strong baselines, with a 16% gain on the SIMPLER benchmark and a 13% improvement across real world manipulation tasks. We will release models and code at https://vipra-project.github.io

Large Language Model (LLM) Agents have recently garnered increasing interest yet they are limited in their ability to learn from trial and error, a key element of intelligent behavior. In this work, we argue that the capacity to learn new actions from experience is fundamental to the advancement of learning in LLM agents. While humans naturally expand their action spaces and develop skills through experiential learning, LLM agents typically operate within fixed action spaces, limiting their potential for growth. To address these challenges, our study explores open-action learning for language agents. We introduce a framework LearnAct with an iterative learning strategy to create and improve actions in the form of Python functions. In each iteration, LLM revises and updates the currently available actions based on the errors identified in unsuccessful training tasks, thereby enhancing action effectiveness. Our experimental evaluations across Robotic Planning and Alfworld environments reveal that after learning on a few training task instances, our approach to open-action learning markedly improves agent performance for the type of task (by 32 percent in AlfWorld compared to ReAct+Reflexion, for instance) highlighting the importance of experiential action learning in the development of more intelligent LLM agents.

Interpreting the inner function of neural networks is crucial for the trustworthy development and deployment of these black-box models. Prior interpretability methods focus on correlation-based measures to attribute model decisions to individual examples. However, these measures are susceptible to noise and spurious correlations encoded in the model during the training phase (e.g., biased inputs, model overfitting, or misspecification). Moreover, this process has proven to result in noisy and unstable attributions that prevent any transparent understanding of the model's behavior. In this paper, we develop a robust interventional-based method grounded by causal analysis to capture cause-effect mechanisms in pre-trained neural networks and their relation to the prediction. Our novel approach relies on path interventions to infer the causal mechanisms within hidden layers and isolate relevant and necessary information (to model prediction), avoiding noisy ones. The result is task-specific causal explanatory graphs that can audit model behavior and express the actual causes underlying its performance. We apply our method to vision models trained on classification tasks. On image classification tasks, we provide extensive quantitative experiments to show that our approach can capture more stable and faithful explanations than standard attribution-based methods. Furthermore, the underlying causal graphs reveal the neural interactions in the model, making it a valuable tool in other applications (e.g., model repair).

World models simulate dynamic environments, enabling agents to interact with diverse input modalities. Although recent advances have improved the visual quality and temporal consistency of video world models, their ability of accurately modeling human-specified actions remains under-explored. Reinforcement learning presents a promising approach for directly improving the suboptimal action-following capability of pre-trained models, assuming that an appropriate reward function can be defined. However, transferring reinforcement learning post-training methods to world model is impractical due to the prohibitive cost of large-scale preference annotations and the infeasibility of constructing rule-based video verifiers. To address this gap, we propose Reinforcement Learning with Inverse Rewards (RLIR), a post-training framework that derives verifiable reward signals by recovering input actions from generated videos using an Inverse Dynamics Model. By mapping high-dimensional video modality to a low-dimensional action space, RLIR provides an objective and verifiable reward for optimization via Group Relative Policy Optimization. Experiments across autoregressive and diffusion paradigms demonstrate 5-10% gains in action-following, up to 10% improvements in visual quality, and higher human preference scores, establishing RLIR as the first post-training method specifically designed to enhance action-following in video world models.

We study the problem of model selection in causal inference, specifically for the case of conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimation under binary treatments. Unlike model selection in machine learning, there is no perfect analogue of cross-validation as we do not observe the counterfactual potential outcome for any data point. Towards this, there have been a variety of proxy metrics proposed in the literature, that depend on auxiliary nuisance models estimated from the observed data (propensity score model, outcome regression model). However, the effectiveness of these metrics has only been studied on synthetic datasets as we can access the counterfactual data for them. We conduct an extensive empirical analysis to judge the performance of these metrics introduced in the literature, and novel ones introduced in this work, where we utilize the latest advances in generative modeling to incorporate multiple realistic datasets. Our analysis suggests novel model selection strategies based on careful hyperparameter tuning of CATE estimators and causal ensembling.

Observational studies require adjustment for confounding factors that are correlated with both the treatment and outcome. In the setting where the observed variables are tabular quantities such as average income in a neighborhood, tools have been developed for addressing such confounding. However, in many parts of the developing world, features about local communities may be scarce. In this context, satellite imagery can play an important role, serving as a proxy for the confounding variables otherwise unobserved. In this paper, we study confounder adjustment in this non-tabular setting, where patterns or objects found in satellite images contribute to the confounder bias. Using the evaluation of anti-poverty aid programs in Africa as our running example, we formalize the challenge of performing causal adjustment with such unstructured data -- what conditions are sufficient to identify causal effects, how to perform estimation, and how to quantify the ways in which certain aspects of the unstructured image object are most predictive of the treatment decision. Via simulation, we also explore the sensitivity of satellite image-based observational inference to image resolution and to misspecification of the image-associated confounder. Finally, we apply these tools in estimating the effect of anti-poverty interventions in African communities from satellite imagery.

In recent years, imitation learning has made progress in the field of robotic manipulation. However, it still faces challenges when dealing with complex long-horizon deformable object tasks, such as high-dimensional state spaces, complex dynamics, and multimodal action distributions. Traditional imitation learning methods often require a large amount of data and encounter distributional shifts and accumulative errors in these tasks. To address these issues, we propose a data-efficient general learning framework (DeformPAM) based on preference learning and reward-guided action selection. DeformPAM decomposes long-horizon tasks into multiple action primitives, utilizes 3D point cloud inputs and diffusion models to model action distributions, and trains an implicit reward model using human preference data. During the inference phase, the reward model scores multiple candidate actions, selecting the optimal action for execution, thereby reducing the occurrence of anomalous actions and improving task completion quality. Experiments conducted on three challenging real-world long-horizon deformable object manipulation tasks demonstrate the effectiveness of this method. Results show that DeformPAM improves both task completion quality and efficiency compared to baseline methods even with limited data. Code and data will be available at https://deform-pam.robotflow.ai.

A generalist robot should perform effectively across various environments. However, most existing approaches heavily rely on scaling action-annotated data to enhance their capabilities. Consequently, they are often limited to single physical specification and struggle to learn transferable knowledge across different embodiments and environments. To confront these limitations, we propose UniVLA, a new framework for learning cross-embodiment vision-language-action (VLA) policies. Our key innovation is to derive task-centric action representations from videos with a latent action model. This enables us to exploit extensive data across a wide spectrum of embodiments and perspectives. To mitigate the effect of task-irrelevant dynamics, we incorporate language instructions and establish a latent action model within the DINO feature space. Learned from internet-scale videos, the generalist policy can be deployed to various robots through efficient latent action decoding. We obtain state-of-the-art results across multiple manipulation and navigation benchmarks, as well as real-robot deployments. UniVLA achieves superior performance over OpenVLA with less than 1/20 of pretraining compute and 1/10 of downstream data. Continuous performance improvements are observed as heterogeneous data, even including human videos, are incorporated into the training pipeline. The results underscore UniVLA's potential to facilitate scalable and efficient robot policy learning.

A ubiquitous feature of data of our era is their extra-large sizes and dimensions. Analyzing such high-dimensional data poses significant challenges, since the feature dimension is often much larger than the sample size. This thesis introduces robust and computationally efficient methods to address several common challenges associated with high-dimensional data. In my first manuscript, I propose a coherent approach to variable screening that accommodates nonlinear associations. I develop a novel variable screening method that transcends traditional linear assumptions by leveraging mutual information, with an intended application in neuroimaging data. This approach allows for accurate identification of important variables by capturing nonlinear as well as linear relationships between the outcome and covariates. Building on this foundation, I develop new optimization methods for sparse estimation using nonconvex penalties in my second manuscript. These methods address notable challenges in current statistical computing practices, facilitating computationally efficient and robust analyses of complex datasets. The proposed method can be applied to a general class of optimization problems. In my third manuscript, I contribute to robust modeling of high-dimensional correlated observations by developing a mixed-effects model based on Tsallis power-law entropy maximization and discussed the theoretical properties of such distribution. This model surpasses the constraints of conventional Gaussian models by accommodating a broader class of distributions with enhanced robustness to outliers. Additionally, I develop a proximal nonlinear conjugate gradient algorithm that accelerates convergence while maintaining numerical stability, along with rigorous statistical properties for the proposed framework.

In many real-world scenarios, rewards extrinsic to the agent are extremely sparse, or absent altogether. In such cases, curiosity can serve as an intrinsic reward signal to enable the agent to explore its environment and learn skills that might be useful later in its life. We formulate curiosity as the error in an agent's ability to predict the consequence of its own actions in a visual feature space learned by a self-supervised inverse dynamics model. Our formulation scales to high-dimensional continuous state spaces like images, bypasses the difficulties of directly predicting pixels, and, critically, ignores the aspects of the environment that cannot affect the agent. The proposed approach is evaluated in two environments: VizDoom and Super Mario Bros. Three broad settings are investigated: 1) sparse extrinsic reward, where curiosity allows for far fewer interactions with the environment to reach the goal; 2) exploration with no extrinsic reward, where curiosity pushes the agent to explore more efficiently; and 3) generalization to unseen scenarios (e.g. new levels of the same game) where the knowledge gained from earlier experience helps the agent explore new places much faster than starting from scratch. Demo video and code available at https://pathak22.github.io/noreward-rl/

Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models, trained via flow-matching or diffusion objectives, excel at learning complex behaviors from large-scale, multi-modal datasets (e.g., human teleoperation, scripted policies). However, since VLAs incorporate diverse data modes in the pre-training stage, and the finetuning dataset often contains demonstration data collected in a kinematically suboptimal or undesirable way, it exists redundant action modes that are irrelevant to the success action modes of the downstream task. Specifically, we observe a critical inference-time fragility among various sampled noises after supervised finetuning of pre-trained VLAs. In this paper, we attribute this instability to the distribution shift between the VLA policy and the policy induced by stable success modes of the downstream task dataset. Thus, we propose TACO, a test-time-scaling (TTS) framework that applies a lightweight pseudo-count estimator as a high-fidelity verifier of action chunks. The VLA models integrated with TACO can execute the actions with maximum pseudo-count from all sampled action chunks, thereby preventing distribution shifts while preserving the generalization ability of VLAs since the constraint is applied only during inference. Our method resembles the classical anti-exploration principle in offline reinforcement learning (RL), and being gradient-free, it incurs significant computational benefits compared to RL update, especially for flow or diffusion-based VLAs which are difficult to perform RL update due to denoising process. Extensive experiments across four simulation benchmarks (RoboTwin2.0, Robotwin, LIBERO, SimplerEnv) and a dual-arm platform demonstrate that our method significantly improves the inference stability and success rates in downstream-task adaptations.

Recent advances in vision-language-action (VLA) models have shown promise in integrating image generation with action prediction to improve generalization and reasoning in robot manipulation. However, existing methods are limited to challenging image-based forecasting, which suffers from redundant information and lacks comprehensive and critical world knowledge, including dynamic, spatial and semantic information. To address these limitations, we propose DreamVLA, a novel VLA framework that integrates comprehensive world knowledge forecasting to enable inverse dynamics modeling, thereby establishing a perception-prediction-action loop for manipulation tasks. Specifically, DreamVLA introduces a dynamic-region-guided world knowledge prediction, integrated with the spatial and semantic cues, which provide compact yet comprehensive representations for action planning. This design aligns with how humans interact with the world by first forming abstract multimodal reasoning chains before acting. To mitigate interference among the dynamic, spatial and semantic information during training, we adopt a block-wise structured attention mechanism that masks their mutual attention, preventing information leakage and keeping each representation clean and disentangled. Moreover, to model the conditional distribution over future actions, we employ a diffusion-based transformer that disentangles action representations from shared latent features. Extensive experiments on both real-world and simulation environments demonstrate that DreamVLA achieves 76.7% success rate on real robot tasks and 4.44 average length on the CALVIN ABC-D benchmarks.

Learning the continuous dynamics of a system from snapshots of its temporal marginals is a problem which appears throughout natural sciences and machine learning, including in quantum systems, single-cell biological data, and generative modeling. In these settings, we assume access to cross-sectional samples that are uncorrelated over time, rather than full trajectories of samples. In order to better understand the systems under observation, we would like to learn a model of the underlying process that allows us to propagate samples in time and thereby simulate entire individual trajectories. In this work, we propose Action Matching, a method for learning a rich family of dynamics using only independent samples from its time evolution. We derive a tractable training objective, which does not rely on explicit assumptions about the underlying dynamics and does not require back-propagation through differential equations or optimal transport solvers. Inspired by connections with optimal transport, we derive extensions of Action Matching to learn stochastic differential equations and dynamics involving creation and destruction of probability mass. Finally, we showcase applications of Action Matching by achieving competitive performance in a diverse set of experiments from biology, physics, and generative modeling.

A variety of recent papers discuss the application of Shapley values, a concept for explaining coalitional games, for feature attribution in machine learning. However, the correct way to connect a machine learning model to a coalitional game has been a source of controversy. The two main approaches that have been proposed differ in the way that they condition on known features, using either (1) an interventional or (2) an observational conditional expectation. While previous work has argued that one of the two approaches is preferable in general, we argue that the choice is application dependent. Furthermore, we argue that the choice comes down to whether it is desirable to be true to the model or true to the data. We use linear models to investigate this choice. After deriving an efficient method for calculating observational conditional expectation Shapley values for linear models, we investigate how correlation in simulated data impacts the convergence of observational conditional expectation Shapley values. Finally, we present two real data examples that we consider to be representative of possible use cases for feature attribution -- (1) credit risk modeling and (2) biological discovery. We show how a different choice of value function performs better in each scenario, and how possible attributions are impacted by modeling choices.

Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models built upon Chain-of-Thought (CoT) have achieved remarkable success in advancing general-purpose robotic agents, owing to its significant perceptual comprehension. Recently, since text-only CoT struggles to adequately capture scene details in complex spatial environments, a highly promising strategy involves leveraging visual priors to guide robotic action generation. Nevertheless, these strategies face two inherent challenges: (i) a modality gap between visual observations and low-level actions, and (ii) unstable training due to competing objectives between visual prediction and action generation. To address these challenges, we propose a Vision-Integrated Trajectory Alignment (VITA) framework that learns a shared discrete latent space for vision and action, enabling joint modeling of perception and motor control. VITA introduces a implicit visual CoT: autoregressively generated tokens is simultaneously decoded into future frames predictions and robot actions, thereby internalizing visual dynamics as an inductive bias for motion planning. Extensive experiments on simulated and real-world environments demonstrate state-of-the-art performance. VITA improves 14.5\%, 9.6\% and 12.1\% over existing baselines on CALVIN, LIBERO and SimplerEnv. Furthermore, VITA attains an average success rate of 80.5\% across six real-world tasks, demonstrating its potential as a generalist robotic manipulation model.

Learning behavioral patterns from observational data has been a de-facto approach to motion forecasting. Yet, the current paradigm suffers from two shortcomings: brittle under distribution shifts and inefficient for knowledge transfer. In this work, we propose to address these challenges from a causal representation perspective. We first introduce a causal formalism of motion forecasting, which casts the problem as a dynamic process with three groups of latent variables, namely invariant variables, style confounders, and spurious features. We then introduce a learning framework that treats each group separately: (i) unlike the common practice mixing datasets collected from different locations, we exploit their subtle distinctions by means of an invariance loss encouraging the model to suppress spurious correlations; (ii) we devise a modular architecture that factorizes the representations of invariant mechanisms and style confounders to approximate a sparse causal graph; (iii) we introduce a style contrastive loss that not only enforces the structure of style representations but also serves as a self-supervisory signal for test-time refinement on the fly. Experiments on synthetic and real datasets show that our proposed method improves the robustness and reusability of learned motion representations, significantly outperforming prior state-of-the-art motion forecasting models for out-of-distribution generalization and low-shot transfer.

Implicit policies parameterized by generative models, such as Diffusion Policy, have become the standard for policy learning and Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models in robotics. However, these approaches often suffer from high computational cost, exposure bias, and unstable inference dynamics, which lead to divergence under distribution shifts. Energy-Based Models (EBMs) address these issues by learning energy landscapes end-to-end and modeling equilibrium dynamics, offering improved robustness and reduced exposure bias. Yet, policies parameterized by EBMs have historically struggled to scale effectively. Recent work on Energy-Based Transformers (EBTs) demonstrates the scalability of EBMs to high-dimensional spaces, but their potential for solving core challenges in physically embodied models remains underexplored. We introduce a new energy-based architecture, EBT-Policy, that solves core issues in robotic and real-world settings. Across simulated and real-world tasks, EBT-Policy consistently outperforms diffusion-based policies, while requiring less training and inference computation. Remarkably, on some tasks it converges within just two inference steps, a 50x reduction compared to Diffusion Policy's 100. Moreover, EBT-Policy exhibits emergent capabilities not seen in prior models, such as zero-shot recovery from failed action sequences using only behavior cloning and without explicit retry training. By leveraging its scalar energy for uncertainty-aware inference and dynamic compute allocation, EBT-Policy offers a promising path toward robust, generalizable robot behavior under distribution shifts.

This paper studies the challenging problem of estimating causal effects from observational data, in the presence of unobserved confounders. The two-stage least square (TSLS) method and its variants with a standard instrumental variable (IV) are commonly used to eliminate confounding bias, including the bias caused by unobserved confounders, but they rely on the linearity assumption. Besides, the strict condition of unconfounded instruments posed on a standard IV is too strong to be practical. To address these challenging and practical problems of the standard IV method (linearity assumption and the strict condition), in this paper, we use a conditional IV (CIV) to relax the unconfounded instrument condition of standard IV and propose a non-linear CIV regression with Confounding Balancing Representation Learning, CBRL.CIV, for jointly eliminating the confounding bias from unobserved confounders and balancing the observed confounders, without the linearity assumption. We theoretically demonstrate the soundness of CBRL.CIV. Extensive experiments on synthetic and two real-world datasets show the competitive performance of CBRL.CIV against state-of-the-art IV-based estimators and superiority in dealing with the non-linear situation.

World models have emerged as promising neural simulators for autonomous driving, with the potential to supplement scarce real-world data and enable closed-loop evaluations. However, current research primarily evaluates these models based on visual realism or downstream task performance, with limited focus on fidelity to specific action instructions - a crucial property for generating targeted simulation scenes. Although some studies address action fidelity, their evaluations rely on closed-source mechanisms, limiting reproducibility. To address this gap, we develop an open-access evaluation framework, ACT-Bench, for quantifying action fidelity, along with a baseline world model, Terra. Our benchmarking framework includes a large-scale dataset pairing short context videos from nuScenes with corresponding future trajectory data, which provides conditional input for generating future video frames and enables evaluation of action fidelity for executed motions. Furthermore, Terra is trained on multiple large-scale trajectory-annotated datasets to enhance action fidelity. Leveraging this framework, we demonstrate that the state-of-the-art model does not fully adhere to given instructions, while Terra achieves improved action fidelity. All components of our benchmark framework will be made publicly available to support future research.

In this paper we construct an inferential procedure for Granger causality in high-dimensional non-stationary vector autoregressive (VAR) models. Our method does not require knowledge of the order of integration of the time series under consideration. We augment the VAR with at least as many lags as the suspected maximum order of integration, an approach which has been proven to be robust against the presence of unit roots in low dimensions. We prove that we can restrict the augmentation to only the variables of interest for the testing, thereby making the approach suitable for high dimensions. We combine this lag augmentation with a post-double-selection procedure in which a set of initial penalized regressions is performed to select the relevant variables for both the Granger causing and caused variables. We then establish uniform asymptotic normality of a second-stage regression involving only the selected variables. Finite sample simulations show good performance, an application to investigate the (predictive) causes and effects of economic uncertainty illustrates the need to allow for unknown orders of integration.

Learning from unstructured and uncurated data has become the dominant paradigm for generative approaches in language and vision. Such unstructured and unguided behavior data, commonly known as play, is also easier to collect in robotics but much more difficult to learn from due to its inherently multimodal, noisy, and suboptimal nature. In this paper, we study this problem of learning goal-directed skill policies from unstructured play data which is labeled with language in hindsight. Specifically, we leverage advances in diffusion models to learn a multi-task diffusion model to extract robotic skills from play data. Using a conditional denoising diffusion process in the space of states and actions, we can gracefully handle the complexity and multimodality of play data and generate diverse and interesting robot behaviors. To make diffusion models more useful for skill learning, we encourage robotic agents to acquire a vocabulary of skills by introducing discrete bottlenecks into the conditional behavior generation process. In our experiments, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach across a wide variety of environments in both simulation and the real world. Results visualizations and videos at https://play-fusion.github.io

Answering counterfactual queries has many important applications such as knowledge discovery and explainability, but is challenging when causal variables are unobserved and we only see a projection onto an observation space, for instance, image pixels. One approach is to recover the latent Structural Causal Model (SCM), but this typically needs unrealistic assumptions, such as linearity of the causal mechanisms. Another approach is to use na\"ive ML approximations, such as generative models, to generate counterfactual samples; however, these lack guarantees of accuracy. In this work, we strive to strike a balance between practicality and theoretical guarantees by focusing on a specific type of causal query called domain counterfactuals, which hypothesizes what a sample would have looked like if it had been generated in a different domain (or environment). Concretely, by only assuming invertibility, sparse domain interventions and access to observational data from different domains, we aim to improve domain counterfactual estimation both theoretically and practically with less restrictive assumptions. We define domain counterfactually equivalent models and prove necessary and sufficient properties for equivalent models that provide a tight characterization of the domain counterfactual equivalence classes. Building upon this result, we prove that every equivalence class contains a model where all intervened variables are at the end when topologically sorted by the causal DAG. This surprising result suggests that a model design that only allows intervention in the last k latent variables may improve model estimation for counterfactuals. We then test this model design on extensive simulated and image-based experiments which show the sparse canonical model indeed improves counterfactual estimation over baseline non-sparse models.

Understanding causality should be a core requirement of any attempt to build real impact through AI. Due to the inherent unobservability of counterfactuals, large randomised trials (RCTs) are the standard for causal inference. But large experiments are generically expensive, and randomisation carries its own costs, e.g. when suboptimal decisions are trialed. Recent work has proposed more sample-efficient alternatives to RCTs, but these are not adaptable to the downstream application for which the causal effect is sought. In this work, we develop a task-specific approach to experimental design and derive sampling strategies customised to particular downstream applications. Across a range of important tasks, real-world datasets, and sample sizes, our method outperforms other benchmarks, e.g. requiring an order-of-magnitude less data to match RCT performance on targeted marketing tasks.

The Reinforcement Learning (RL) building blocks, i.e. Q-functions and policy networks, usually take elements from the cartesian product of two domains as input. In particular, the input of the Q-function is both the state and the action, and in multi-task problems (Meta-RL) the policy can take a state and a context. Standard architectures tend to ignore these variables' underlying interpretations and simply concatenate their features into a single vector. In this work, we argue that this choice may lead to poor gradient estimation in actor-critic algorithms and high variance learning steps in Meta-RL algorithms. To consider the interaction between the input variables, we suggest using a Hypernetwork architecture where a primary network determines the weights of a conditional dynamic network. We show that this approach improves the gradient approximation and reduces the learning step variance, which both accelerates learning and improves the final performance. We demonstrate a consistent improvement across different locomotion tasks and different algorithms both in RL (TD3 and SAC) and in Meta-RL (MAML and PEARL).

We present a general causal generative modelling framework for accurate estimation of high fidelity image counterfactuals with deep structural causal models. Estimation of interventional and counterfactual queries for high-dimensional structured variables, such as images, remains a challenging task. We leverage ideas from causal mediation analysis and advances in generative modelling to design new deep causal mechanisms for structured variables in causal models. Our experiments demonstrate that our proposed mechanisms are capable of accurate abduction and estimation of direct, indirect and total effects as measured by axiomatic soundness of counterfactuals.

In causal bandit problems, the action set consists of interventions on variables of a causal graph. Several researchers have recently studied such bandit problems and pointed out their practical applications. However, all existing works rely on a restrictive and impractical assumption that the learner is given full knowledge of the causal graph structure upfront. In this paper, we develop novel causal bandit algorithms without knowing the causal graph. Our algorithms work well for causal trees, causal forests and a general class of causal graphs. The regret guarantees of our algorithms greatly improve upon those of standard multi-armed bandit (MAB) algorithms under mild conditions. Lastly, we prove our mild conditions are necessary: without them one cannot do better than standard MAB algorithms.

Pretraining RL models on offline video datasets is a promising way to improve their training efficiency in online tasks, but challenging due to the inherent mismatch in tasks, dynamics, and behaviors across domains. A recent model, APV, sidesteps the accompanied action records in offline datasets and instead focuses on pretraining a task-irrelevant, action-free world model within the source domains. We present Vid2Act, a model-based RL method that learns to transfer valuable action-conditioned dynamics and potentially useful action demonstrations from offline to online settings. The main idea is to use the world models not only as simulators for behavior learning but also as tools to measure the domain relevance for both dynamics representation transfer and policy transfer. Specifically, we train the world models to generate a set of time-varying task similarities using a domain-selective knowledge distillation loss. These similarities serve two purposes: (i) adaptively transferring the most useful source knowledge to facilitate dynamics learning, and (ii) learning to replay the most relevant source actions to guide the target policy. We demonstrate the advantages of Vid2Act over the action-free visual RL pretraining method in both Meta-World and DeepMind Control Suite.

In this paper, we present DiffusionVLA, a novel framework that seamlessly combines the autoregression model with the diffusion model for learning visuomotor policy. Central to our approach is a next-token prediction objective, enabling the model to reason effectively over the user's query in the context of current observations. Subsequently, a diffusion model is attached to generate robust action outputs. To enhance policy learning through self-reasoning, we introduce a novel reasoning injection module that integrates reasoning phrases directly into the policy learning process. The whole framework is simple and flexible, making it easy to deploy and upgrade. We conduct extensive experiments using multiple real robots to validate the effectiveness of DiffusionVLA. Our tests include a challenging factory sorting task, where DiffusionVLA successfully categorizes objects, including those not seen during training. We observe that the reasoning module makes the model interpretable. It allows observers to understand the model thought process and identify potential causes of policy failures. Additionally, we test DiffusionVLA on a zero-shot bin-picking task, achieving 63.7\% accuracy on 102 previously unseen objects. Our method demonstrates robustness to visual changes, such as distractors and new backgrounds, and easily adapts to new embodiments. Furthermore, DiffusionVLA can follow novel instructions and retain conversational ability. Notably, DiffusionVLA is data-efficient and fast at inference; our smallest DiffusionVLA-2B runs 82Hz on a single A6000 GPU and can train from scratch on less than 50 demonstrations for a complex task. Finally, we scale the model from 2B to 72B parameters, showcasing improved generalization capabilities with increased model size.

Recent work has shown promising results in causal discovery by leveraging interventional data with gradient-based methods, even when the intervened variables are unknown. However, previous work assumes that the correspondence between samples and interventions is known, which is often unrealistic. We envision a scenario with an extensive dataset sampled from multiple intervention distributions and one observation distribution, but where we do not know which distribution originated each sample and how the intervention affected the system, i.e., interventions are entirely latent. We propose a method based on neural networks and variational inference that addresses this scenario by framing it as learning a shared causal graph among an infinite mixture (under a Dirichlet process prior) of intervention structural causal models. Experiments with synthetic and real data show that our approach and its semi-supervised variant are able to discover causal relations in this challenging scenario.

In recent years, domains such as natural language processing and image recognition have popularized the paradigm of using large datasets to pretrain representations that can be effectively transferred to downstream tasks. In this work we evaluate how such a paradigm should be done in imitation learning, where both pretraining and finetuning data are trajectories collected by experts interacting with an unknown environment. Namely, we consider a setting where the pretraining corpus consists of multitask demonstrations and the task for each demonstration is set by an unobserved latent context variable. The goal is to use the pretraining corpus to learn a low dimensional representation of the high dimensional (e.g., visual) observation space which can be transferred to a novel context for finetuning on a limited dataset of demonstrations. Among a variety of possible pretraining objectives, we argue that inverse dynamics modeling -- i.e., predicting an action given the observations appearing before and after it in the demonstration -- is well-suited to this setting. We provide empirical evidence of this claim through evaluations on a variety of simulated visuomotor manipulation problems. While previous work has attempted various theoretical explanations regarding the benefit of inverse dynamics modeling, we find that these arguments are insufficient to explain the empirical advantages often observed in our settings, and so we derive a novel analysis using a simple but general environment model.

We show that there is a general, informative and reliable procedure for discovering causal relations when, for all the investigator knows, both latent variables and selection bias may be at work. Given information about conditional independence and dependence relations between measured variables, even when latent variables and selection bias may be present, there are sufficient conditions for reliably concluding that there is a causal path from one variable to another, and sufficient conditions for reliably concluding when no such causal path exists.

Although the existing causal inference literature focuses on the forward-looking perspective by estimating effects of causes, the backward-looking perspective can provide insights into causes of effects. In backward-looking causal inference, the probability of necessity measures the probability that a certain event is caused by the treatment given the observed treatment and outcome. Most existing results focus on binary outcomes. Motivated by applications with ordinal outcomes, we propose a general definition of the probability of necessity. However, identifying the probability of necessity is challenging because it involves the joint distribution of the potential outcomes. We propose a novel assumption of monotonic incremental treatment effect to identify the probability of necessity with ordinal outcomes. We also discuss the testable implications of this key identification assumption. When it fails, we derive explicit formulas of the sharp large-sample bounds on the probability of necessity.

We propose a novel machine learning approach for inferring causal variables of a target variable from observations. Our focus is on directly inferring a set of causal factors without requiring full causal graph reconstruction, which is computationally challenging in large-scale systems. The identified causal set consists of all potential regulators of the target variable under experimental settings, enabling efficient regulation when intervention costs and feasibility vary across variables. To achieve this, we train a neural network using supervised learning on simulated data to infer causality. By employing a local-inference strategy, our approach scales with linear complexity in the number of variables, efficiently scaling up to thousands of variables. Empirical results demonstrate superior performance in identifying causal relationships within large-scale gene regulatory networks, outperforming existing methods that emphasize full-graph discovery. We validate our model's generalization capability across out-of-distribution graph structures and generating mechanisms, including gene regulatory networks of E. coli and the human K562 cell line. Implementation codes are available at https://github.com/snu-mllab/Targeted-Cause-Discovery.

In robotic visuomotor policy learning, diffusion-based models have achieved significant success in improving the accuracy of action trajectory generation compared to traditional autoregressive models. However, they suffer from inefficiency due to multiple denoising steps and limited flexibility from complex constraints. In this paper, we introduce Coarse-to-Fine AutoRegressive Policy (CARP), a novel paradigm for visuomotor policy learning that redefines the autoregressive action generation process as a coarse-to-fine, next-scale approach. CARP decouples action generation into two stages: first, an action autoencoder learns multi-scale representations of the entire action sequence; then, a GPT-style transformer refines the sequence prediction through a coarse-to-fine autoregressive process. This straightforward and intuitive approach produces highly accurate and smooth actions, matching or even surpassing the performance of diffusion-based policies while maintaining efficiency on par with autoregressive policies. We conduct extensive evaluations across diverse settings, including single-task and multi-task scenarios on state-based and image-based simulation benchmarks, as well as real-world tasks. CARP achieves competitive success rates, with up to a 10% improvement, and delivers 10x faster inference compared to state-of-the-art policies, establishing a high-performance, efficient, and flexible paradigm for action generation in robotic tasks.

In egocentric scenarios, anticipating both the next action and its visual outcome is essential for understanding human-object interactions and for enabling robotic planning. However, existing paradigms fall short of jointly modeling these aspects. Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models focus on action prediction but lack explicit modeling of how actions influence the visual scene, while video prediction models generate future frames without conditioning on specific actions, often resulting in implausible or contextually inconsistent outcomes. To bridge this gap, we propose a unified two-stage predictive framework that jointly models action and visual future in egocentric scenarios, conditioned on hand trajectories. In the first stage, we perform consecutive state modeling to process heterogeneous inputs (visual observations, language, and action history) and explicitly predict future hand trajectories. In the second stage, we introduce causal cross-attention to fuse multi-modal cues, leveraging inferred action signals to guide an image-based Latent Diffusion Model (LDM) for frame-by-frame future video generation. Our approach is the first unified model designed to handle both egocentric human activity understanding and robotic manipulation tasks, providing explicit predictions of both upcoming actions and their visual consequences. Extensive experiments on Ego4D, BridgeData, and RLBench demonstrate that our method outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in both action prediction and future video synthesis.

We study pre-training representations for decision-making using video data, which is abundantly available for tasks such as game agents and software testing. Even though significant empirical advances have been made on this problem, a theoretical understanding remains absent. We initiate the theoretical investigation into principled approaches for representation learning and focus on learning the latent state representations of the underlying MDP using video data. We study two types of settings: one where there is iid noise in the observation, and a more challenging setting where there is also the presence of exogenous noise, which is non-iid noise that is temporally correlated, such as the motion of people or cars in the background. We study three commonly used approaches: autoencoding, temporal contrastive learning, and forward modeling. We prove upper bounds for temporal contrastive learning and forward modeling in the presence of only iid noise. We show that these approaches can learn the latent state and use it to do efficient downstream RL with polynomial sample complexity. When exogenous noise is also present, we establish a lower bound result showing that the sample complexity of learning from video data can be exponentially worse than learning from action-labeled trajectory data. This partially explains why reinforcement learning with video pre-training is hard. We evaluate these representational learning methods in two visual domains, yielding results that are consistent with our theoretical findings.

Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) have shown significant impact through their model capacity, scalability, and zero-shot generalization. However, due to the heterogeneity of inter-variate dependencies and the backbone scalability on large-scale multivariate datasets, most TSFMs are typically pre-trained on univariate time series. This limitation renders them oblivious to crucial information from diverse covariates in real-world forecasting tasks. To further enhance the performance of TSFMs, we propose a general covariate-aware adaptation (CoRA) framework for TSFMs. It leverages pre-trained backbones of foundation models while effectively incorporating exogenous covariates from various modalities, including time series, language, and images, to improve the quality of predictions. Technically, CoRA maintains the equivalence of initialization and parameter consistency during adaptation. With preserved backbones of foundation models as frozen feature extractors, the outcome embeddings from foundation models are empirically demonstrated more informative than raw data. Further, CoRA employs a novel Granger Causality Embedding (GCE) to automatically evaluate covariates regarding their causal predictability with respect to the target variate. We incorporate these weighted embeddings with a zero-initialized condition-injection mechanism, avoiding catastrophic forgetting of pre-trained foundation models and gradually integrates exogenous information. Extensive experiments show that CoRA of TSFMs surpasses state-of-the-art covariate-aware deep forecasters with full or few-shot training samples, achieving 31.1% MSE reduction on covariate-aware forecasting. Compared to other adaptation methods, CoRA exhibits strong compatibility with various advanced TSFMs and extends the scope of covariates to other modalities, presenting a practical paradigm for the application of TSFMs.

This paper presents RynnVLA-001, a vision-language-action(VLA) model built upon large-scale video generative pretraining from human demonstrations. We propose a novel two-stage pretraining methodology. The first stage, Ego-Centric Video Generative Pretraining, trains an Image-to-Video model on 12M ego-centric manipulation videos to predict future frames conditioned on an initial frame and a language instruction. The second stage, Human-Centric Trajectory-Aware Modeling, extends this by jointly predicting future keypoint trajectories, thereby effectively bridging visual frame prediction with action prediction. Furthermore, to enhance action representation, we propose ActionVAE, a variational autoencoder that compresses sequences of actions into compact latent embeddings, reducing the complexity of the VLA output space. When finetuned on the same downstream robotics datasets, RynnVLA-001 achieves superior performance over state-of-the-art baselines, demonstrating that the proposed pretraining strategy provides a more effective initialization for VLA models.

Controllable image synthesis, which enables fine-grained control over generated outputs, has emerged as a key focus in visual generative modeling. However, controllable generation remains challenging for Visual Autoregressive (VAR) models due to their hierarchical, next-scale prediction style. Existing VAR-based methods often suffer from inefficient control encoding and disruptive injection mechanisms that compromise both fidelity and efficiency. In this work, we present SCALAR, a controllable generation method based on VAR, incorporating a novel Scale-wise Conditional Decoding mechanism. SCALAR leverages a pretrained image encoder to extract semantic control signal encodings, which are projected into scale-specific representations and injected into the corresponding layers of the VAR backbone. This design provides persistent and structurally aligned guidance throughout the generation process. Building on SCALAR, we develop SCALAR-Uni, a unified extension that aligns multiple control modalities into a shared latent space, supporting flexible multi-conditional guidance in a single model. Extensive experiments show that SCALAR achieves superior generation quality and control precision across various tasks.

We study principal-agent problems in which a principal commits to an outcome-dependent payment scheme -- called contract -- in order to induce an agent to take a costly, unobservable action leading to favorable outcomes. We consider a generalization of the classical (single-round) version of the problem in which the principal interacts with the agent by committing to contracts over multiple rounds. The principal has no information about the agent, and they have to learn an optimal contract by only observing the outcome realized at each round. We focus on settings in which the size of the agent's action space is small. We design an algorithm that learns an approximately-optimal contract with high probability in a number of rounds polynomial in the size of the outcome space, when the number of actions is constant. Our algorithm solves an open problem by Zhu et al.[2022]. Moreover, it can also be employed to provide a mathcal{O}(T^{4/5}) regret bound in the related online learning setting in which the principal aims at maximizing their cumulative utility, thus considerably improving previously-known regret bounds.

Online reinforcement learning in complex tasks is time-consuming, as massive interaction steps are needed to learn the optimal Q-function.Vision-language action (VLA) policies represent a promising direction for solving diverse tasks; however, their performance on low-level control remains limited, and effective deployment often requires task-specific expert demonstrations for fine-tuning. In this paper, we propose VARL (VLM as Action advisor for online Reinforcement Learning), a framework that leverages the domain knowledge of vision-language models (VLMs) to provide action suggestions for reinforcement learning agents. Unlike previous methods, VARL provides action suggestions rather than designing heuristic rewards, thereby guaranteeing unchanged optimality and convergence. The suggested actions increase sample diversity and ultimately improve sample efficiency, especially in sparse-reward tasks. To validate the effectiveness of VARL, we evaluate it across diverse environments and agent settings. Results show that VARL greatly improves sample efficiency without introducing significant computational overhead. These advantages make VARL a general framework for online reinforcement learning and make it feasible to directly apply reinforcement learning from scratch in real-world environments.

Selecting exploratory actions that generate a rich stream of experience for better learning is a fundamental challenge in reinforcement learning (RL). An approach to tackle this problem consists in selecting actions according to specific policies for an extended period of time, also known as options. A recent line of work to derive such exploratory options builds upon the eigenfunctions of the graph Laplacian. Importantly, until now these methods have been mostly limited to tabular domains where (1) the graph Laplacian matrix was either given or could be fully estimated, (2) performing eigendecomposition on this matrix was computationally tractable, and (3) value functions could be learned exactly. Additionally, these methods required a separate option discovery phase. These assumptions are fundamentally not scalable. In this paper we address these limitations and show how recent results for directly approximating the eigenfunctions of the Laplacian can be leveraged to truly scale up options-based exploration. To do so, we introduce a fully online deep RL algorithm for discovering Laplacian-based options and evaluate our approach on a variety of pixel-based tasks. We compare to several state-of-the-art exploration methods and show that our approach is effective, general, and especially promising in non-stationary settings.

Recent works in robotic manipulation through reinforcement learning (RL) or imitation learning (IL) have shown potential for tackling a range of tasks e.g., opening a drawer or a cupboard. However, these techniques generalize poorly to unseen objects. We conjecture that this is due to the high-dimensional action space for joint control. In this paper, we take an alternative approach and separate the task of learning 'what to do' from 'how to do it' i.e., whole-body control. We pose the RL problem as one of determining the skill dynamics for a disembodied virtual manipulator interacting with articulated objects. The whole-body robotic kinematic control is optimized to execute the high-dimensional joint motion to reach the goals in the workspace. It does so by solving a quadratic programming (QP) model with robotic singularity and kinematic constraints. Our experiments on manipulating complex articulated objects show that the proposed approach is more generalizable to unseen objects with large intra-class variations, outperforming previous approaches. The evaluation results indicate that our approach generates more compliant robotic motion and outperforms the pure RL and IL baselines in task success rates. Additional information and videos are available at https://kl-research.github.io/decoupskill

Our motivation is to shed light the performance of the widely popular "R-Learner." Like many other methods for estimating conditional average treatment effects (CATEs), R-Learning can be expressed as a weighted pseudo-outcome regression (POR). Previous comparisons of POR techniques have paid careful attention to the choice of pseudo-outcome transformation. However, we argue that the dominant driver of performance is actually the choice of weights. Specifically, we argue that R-Learning implicitly performs an inverse-variance weighted form of POR. These weights stabilize the regression and allow for convenient simplifications of bias terms.

This paper introduces Diffusion Policy, a new way of generating robot behavior by representing a robot's visuomotor policy as a conditional denoising diffusion process. We benchmark Diffusion Policy across 11 different tasks from 4 different robot manipulation benchmarks and find that it consistently outperforms existing state-of-the-art robot learning methods with an average improvement of 46.9%. Diffusion Policy learns the gradient of the action-distribution score function and iteratively optimizes with respect to this gradient field during inference via a series of stochastic Langevin dynamics steps. We find that the diffusion formulation yields powerful advantages when used for robot policies, including gracefully handling multimodal action distributions, being suitable for high-dimensional action spaces, and exhibiting impressive training stability. To fully unlock the potential of diffusion models for visuomotor policy learning on physical robots, this paper presents a set of key technical contributions including the incorporation of receding horizon control, visual conditioning, and the time-series diffusion transformer. We hope this work will help motivate a new generation of policy learning techniques that are able to leverage the powerful generative modeling capabilities of diffusion models. Code, data, and training details will be publicly available.

Reinforcement learning (RL) for continuous control often requires large amounts of online interaction data. Value-based RL methods can mitigate this burden by offering relatively high sample efficiency. Some studies further enhance sample efficiency by incorporating offline demonstration data to "kick-start" training, achieving promising results in continuous control. However, they typically compute the Q-function independently for each action dimension, neglecting interdependencies and making it harder to identify optimal actions when learning from suboptimal data, such as non-expert demonstration and online-collected data during the training process. To address these issues, we propose Auto-Regressive Soft Q-learning (ARSQ), a value-based RL algorithm that models Q-values in a coarse-to-fine, auto-regressive manner. First, ARSQ decomposes the continuous action space into discrete spaces in a coarse-to-fine hierarchy, enhancing sample efficiency for fine-grained continuous control tasks. Next, it auto-regressively predicts dimensional action advantages within each decision step, enabling more effective decision-making in continuous control tasks. We evaluate ARSQ on two continuous control benchmarks, RLBench and D4RL, integrating demonstration data into online training. On D4RL, which includes non-expert demonstrations, ARSQ achieves an average 1.62times performance improvement over SOTA value-based baseline. On RLBench, which incorporates expert demonstrations, ARSQ surpasses various baselines, demonstrating its effectiveness in learning from suboptimal online-collected data. Project page is at https://sites.google.com/view/ar-soft-q

Heterogeneity and comorbidity are two interwoven challenges associated with various healthcare problems that greatly hampered research on developing effective treatment and understanding of the underlying neurobiological mechanism. Very few studies have been conducted to investigate heterogeneous causal effects (HCEs) in graphical contexts due to the lack of statistical methods. To characterize this heterogeneity, we first conceptualize heterogeneous causal graphs (HCGs) by generalizing the causal graphical model with confounder-based interactions and multiple mediators. Such confounders with an interaction with the treatment are known as moderators. This allows us to flexibly produce HCGs given different moderators and explicitly characterize HCEs from the treatment or potential mediators on the outcome. We establish the theoretical forms of HCEs and derive their properties at the individual level in both linear and nonlinear models. An interactive structural learning is developed to estimate the complex HCGs and HCEs with confidence intervals provided. Our method is empirically justified by extensive simulations and its practical usefulness is illustrated by exploring causality among psychiatric disorders for trauma survivors.

We present a method for training multi-task vision-language robotic diffusion policies that reduces training time and memory usage by an order of magnitude. This improvement arises from a previously underexplored distinction between action diffusion and the image diffusion techniques that inspired it: image generation targets are high-dimensional, while robot actions lie in a much lower-dimensional space. Meanwhile, the vision-language conditions for action generation remain high-dimensional. Our approach, Mini-Diffuser, exploits this asymmetry by introducing Level-2 minibatching, which pairs multiple noised action samples with each vision-language condition, instead of the conventional one-to-one sampling strategy. To support this batching scheme, we introduce architectural adaptations to the diffusion transformer that prevent information leakage across samples while maintaining full conditioning access. In RLBench simulations, Mini-Diffuser achieves 95\% of the performance of state-of-the-art multi-task diffusion policies, while using only 5\% of the training time and 7\% of the memory. Real-world experiments further validate that Mini-Diffuser preserves the key strengths of diffusion-based policies, including the ability to model multimodal action distributions and produce behavior conditioned on diverse perceptual inputs. Code available at github.com/utomm/mini-diffuse-actor.

In many real-world sequential decision-making problems, an action does not immediately reflect on the feedback and spreads its effects over a long time frame. For instance, in online advertising, investing in a platform produces an instantaneous increase of awareness, but the actual reward, i.e., a conversion, might occur far in the future. Furthermore, whether a conversion takes place depends on: how fast the awareness grows, its vanishing effects, and the synergy or interference with other advertising platforms. Previous work has investigated the Multi-Armed Bandit framework with the possibility of delayed and aggregated feedback, without a particular structure on how an action propagates in the future, disregarding possible dynamical effects. In this paper, we introduce a novel setting, the Dynamical Linear Bandits (DLB), an extension of the linear bandits characterized by a hidden state. When an action is performed, the learner observes a noisy reward whose mean is a linear function of the hidden state and of the action. Then, the hidden state evolves according to linear dynamics, affected by the performed action too. We start by introducing the setting, discussing the notion of optimal policy, and deriving an expected regret lower bound. Then, we provide an optimistic regret minimization algorithm, Dynamical Linear Upper Confidence Bound (DynLin-UCB), that suffers an expected regret of order mathcal{O} Big( d sqrt{T}{(1-rho)^{3/2}} Big), where rho is a measure of the stability of the system, and d is the dimension of the action vector. Finally, we conduct a numerical validation on a synthetic environment and on real-world data to show the effectiveness of DynLin-UCB in comparison with several baselines.

Diffusion probabilistic models (DPMs) have become the state-of-the-art in high-quality image generation. However, DPMs have an arbitrary noisy latent space with no interpretable or controllable semantics. Although there has been significant research effort to improve image sample quality, there is little work on representation-controlled generation using diffusion models. Specifically, causal modeling and controllable counterfactual generation using DPMs is an underexplored area. In this work, we propose CausalDiffAE, a diffusion-based causal representation learning framework to enable counterfactual generation according to a specified causal model. Our key idea is to use an encoder to extract high-level semantically meaningful causal variables from high-dimensional data and model stochastic variation using reverse diffusion. We propose a causal encoding mechanism that maps high-dimensional data to causally related latent factors and parameterize the causal mechanisms among latent factors using neural networks. To enforce the disentanglement of causal variables, we formulate a variational objective and leverage auxiliary label information in a prior to regularize the latent space. We propose a DDIM-based counterfactual generation procedure subject to do-interventions. Finally, to address the limited label supervision scenario, we also study the application of CausalDiffAE when a part of the training data is unlabeled, which also enables granular control over the strength of interventions in generating counterfactuals during inference. We empirically show that CausalDiffAE learns a disentangled latent space and is capable of generating high-quality counterfactual images.

We introduce Genie, the first generative interactive environment trained in an unsupervised manner from unlabelled Internet videos. The model can be prompted to generate an endless variety of action-controllable virtual worlds described through text, synthetic images, photographs, and even sketches. At 11B parameters, Genie can be considered a foundation world model. It is comprised of a spatiotemporal video tokenizer, an autoregressive dynamics model, and a simple and scalable latent action model. Genie enables users to act in the generated environments on a frame-by-frame basis despite training without any ground-truth action labels or other domain-specific requirements typically found in the world model literature. Further the resulting learned latent action space facilitates training agents to imitate behaviors from unseen videos, opening the path for training generalist agents of the future.

Generating instructional images of human daily actions from an egocentric viewpoint serves a key step towards efficient skill transfer. In this paper, we introduce a novel problem -- egocentric action frame generation. The goal is to synthesize the action frame conditioning on the user prompt question and an input egocentric image that captures user's environment. Notably, existing egocentric datasets lack the detailed annotations that describe the execution of actions. Additionally, the diffusion-based image manipulation models fail to control the state change of an action within the corresponding egocentric image pixel space. To this end, we finetune a visual large language model (VLLM) via visual instruction tuning for curating the enriched action descriptions to address our proposed problem. Moreover, we propose to Learn EGOcentric (LEGO) action frame generation using image and text embeddings from VLLM as additional conditioning. We validate our proposed model on two egocentric datasets -- Ego4D and Epic-Kitchens. Our experiments show prominent improvement over prior image manipulation models in both quantitative and qualitative evaluation. We also conduct detailed ablation studies and analysis to provide insights on our method.

Role-based learning holds the promise of achieving scalable multi-agent learning by decomposing complex tasks using roles. However, it is largely unclear how to efficiently discover such a set of roles. To solve this problem, we propose to first decompose joint action spaces into restricted role action spaces by clustering actions according to their effects on the environment and other agents. Learning a role selector based on action effects makes role discovery much easier because it forms a bi-level learning hierarchy -- the role selector searches in a smaller role space and at a lower temporal resolution, while role policies learn in significantly reduced primitive action-observation spaces. We further integrate information about action effects into the role policies to boost learning efficiency and policy generalization. By virtue of these advances, our method (1) outperforms the current state-of-the-art MARL algorithms on 10 of the 14 scenarios that comprise the challenging StarCraft II micromanagement benchmark and (2) achieves rapid transfer to new environments with three times the number of agents. Demonstrative videos are available at https://sites.google.com/view/rode-marl .

Discovering causal structures with latent variables from observational data is a fundamental challenge in causal discovery. Existing methods often rely on constraint-based, iterative discrete searches, limiting their scalability to large numbers of variables. Moreover, these methods frequently assume linearity or invertibility, restricting their applicability to real-world scenarios. We present new theoretical results on the identifiability of nonlinear latent hierarchical causal models, relaxing previous assumptions in literature about the deterministic nature of latent variables and exogenous noise. Building on these insights, we develop a novel differentiable causal discovery algorithm that efficiently estimates the structure of such models. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work to propose a differentiable causal discovery method for nonlinear latent hierarchical models. Our approach outperforms existing methods in both accuracy and scalability. We demonstrate its practical utility by learning interpretable hierarchical latent structures from high-dimensional image data and demonstrate its effectiveness on downstream tasks.

Diffusion-based generative models (DBGMs) perturb data to a target noise distribution and reverse this process to generate samples. The choice of noising process, or inference diffusion process, affects both likelihoods and sample quality. For example, extending the inference process with auxiliary variables leads to improved sample quality. While there are many such multivariate diffusions to explore, each new one requires significant model-specific analysis, hindering rapid prototyping and evaluation. In this work, we study Multivariate Diffusion Models (MDMs). For any number of auxiliary variables, we provide a recipe for maximizing a lower-bound on the MDMs likelihood without requiring any model-specific analysis. We then demonstrate how to parameterize the diffusion for a specified target noise distribution; these two points together enable optimizing the inference diffusion process. Optimizing the diffusion expands easy experimentation from just a few well-known processes to an automatic search over all linear diffusions. To demonstrate these ideas, we introduce two new specific diffusions as well as learn a diffusion process on the MNIST, CIFAR10, and ImageNet32 datasets. We show learned MDMs match or surpass bits-per-dims (BPDs) relative to fixed choices of diffusions for a given dataset and model architecture.

Children learn powerful internal models of the world around them from a few years of egocentric visual experience. Can such internal models be learned from a child's visual experience with highly generic learning algorithms or do they require strong inductive biases? Recent advances in collecting large-scale, longitudinal, developmentally realistic video datasets and generic self-supervised learning (SSL) algorithms are allowing us to begin to tackle this nature vs. nurture question. However, existing work typically focuses on image-based SSL algorithms and visual capabilities that can be learned from static images (e.g. object recognition), thus ignoring temporal aspects of the world. To close this gap, here we train self-supervised video models on longitudinal, egocentric headcam recordings collected from a child over a two year period in their early development (6-31 months). The resulting models are highly effective at facilitating the learning of action concepts from a small number of labeled examples; they have favorable data size scaling properties; and they display emergent video interpolation capabilities. Video models also learn more robust object representations than image-based models trained with the exact same data. These results suggest that important temporal aspects of a child's internal model of the world may be learnable from their visual experience using highly generic learning algorithms and without strong inductive biases.

A prominent challenge of offline reinforcement learning (RL) is the issue of hidden confounding: unobserved variables may influence both the actions taken by the agent and the observed outcomes. Hidden confounding can compromise the validity of any causal conclusion drawn from data and presents a major obstacle to effective offline RL. In the present paper, we tackle the problem of hidden confounding in the nonidentifiable setting. We propose a definition of uncertainty due to hidden confounding bias, termed delphic uncertainty, which uses variation over world models compatible with the observations, and differentiate it from the well-known epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties. We derive a practical method for estimating the three types of uncertainties, and construct a pessimistic offline RL algorithm to account for them. Our method does not assume identifiability of the unobserved confounders, and attempts to reduce the amount of confounding bias. We demonstrate through extensive experiments and ablations the efficacy of our approach on a sepsis management benchmark, as well as on electronic health records. Our results suggest that nonidentifiable hidden confounding bias can be mitigated to improve offline RL solutions in practice.

We provide an optimization-based framework to perform counterfactual analysis in a dynamic model with hidden states. Our framework is grounded in the ``abduction, action, and prediction'' approach to answer counterfactual queries and handles two key challenges where (1) the states are hidden and (2) the model is dynamic. Recognizing the lack of knowledge on the underlying causal mechanism and the possibility of infinitely many such mechanisms, we optimize over this space and compute upper and lower bounds on the counterfactual quantity of interest. Our work brings together ideas from causality, state-space models, simulation, and optimization, and we apply it on a breast cancer case study. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to compute lower and upper bounds on a counterfactual query in a dynamic latent-state model.

We consider the task of evaluating policies of algorithmic resource allocation through randomized controlled trials (RCTs). Such policies are tasked with optimizing the utilization of limited intervention resources, with the goal of maximizing the benefits derived. Evaluation of such allocation policies through RCTs proves difficult, notwithstanding the scale of the trial, because the individuals' outcomes are inextricably interlinked through resource constraints controlling the policy decisions. Our key contribution is to present a new estimator leveraging our proposed novel concept, that involves retrospective reshuffling of participants across experimental arms at the end of an RCT. We identify conditions under which such reassignments are permissible and can be leveraged to construct counterfactual trials, whose outcomes can be accurately ascertained, for free. We prove theoretically that such an estimator is more accurate than common estimators based on sample means -- we show that it returns an unbiased estimate and simultaneously reduces variance. We demonstrate the value of our approach through empirical experiments on synthetic, semi-synthetic as well as real case study data and show improved estimation accuracy across the board.

Many social and environmental phenomena are associated with macroscopic changes in the built environment, captured by satellite imagery on a global scale and with daily temporal resolution. While widely used for prediction, these images and especially image sequences remain underutilized for causal inference, especially in the context of randomized controlled trials (RCTs), where causal identification is established by design. In this paper, we develop and compare a set of general tools for analyzing Conditional Average Treatment Effects (CATEs) from temporal satellite data that can be applied to any RCT where geographical identifiers are available. Through a simulation study, we analyze different modeling strategies for estimating CATE in sequences of satellite images. We find that image sequence representation models with more parameters generally yield a greater ability to detect heterogeneity. To explore the role of model and data choice in practice, we apply the approaches to two influential RCTs -- Banerjee et al. (2015), a poverty study in Cusco, Peru, and Bolsen et al. (2014), a water conservation experiment in Georgia, USA. We benchmark our image sequence models against image-only, tabular-only, and combined image-tabular data sources, summarizing practical implications for investigators in a multivariate analysis. Land cover classifications over satellite images facilitate interpretation of what image features drive heterogeneity. We also show robustness to data and model choice of satellite-based generalization of the RCT results to larger geographical areas outside the original. Overall, this paper shows how satellite sequence data can be incorporated into the analysis of RCTs, and provides evidence about the implications of data, model, and evaluation metric choice for causal analysis.

Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) have recently achieved state-of-the-art performance in univariate forecasting on new time series simply by conditioned on a brief history of past values. Their success demonstrates that large-scale pretraining across diverse domains can acquire the inductive bias to generalize from temporal patterns in a brief history. However, most TSFMs are unable to leverage covariates -- future-available exogenous variables critical for accurate forecasting in many applications -- due to their domain-specific nature and the lack of associated inductive bias. We propose TFMAdapter, a lightweight, instance-level adapter that augments TSFMs with covariate information without fine-tuning. Instead of retraining, TFMAdapter operates on the limited history provided during a single model call, learning a non-parametric cascade that combines covariates with univariate TSFM forecasts. However, such learning would require univariate forecasts at all steps in the history, requiring too many calls to the TSFM. To enable training on the full historical context while limiting TSFM invocations, TFMAdapter uses a two-stage method: (1) generating pseudo-forecasts with a simple regression model, and (2) training a Gaussian Process regressor to refine predictions using both pseudo- and TSFM forecasts alongside covariates. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that TFMAdapter consistently outperforms both foundation models and supervised baselines, achieving a 24-27\% improvement over base foundation models with minimal data and computational overhead. Our results highlight the potential of lightweight adapters to bridge the gap between generic foundation models and domain-specific forecasting needs.

We investigate an experiential learning paradigm for acquiring an internal model of intuitive physics. Our model is evaluated on a real-world robotic manipulation task that requires displacing objects to target locations by poking. The robot gathered over 400 hours of experience by executing more than 100K pokes on different objects. We propose a novel approach based on deep neural networks for modeling the dynamics of robot's interactions directly from images, by jointly estimating forward and inverse models of dynamics. The inverse model objective provides supervision to construct informative visual features, which the forward model can then predict and in turn regularize the feature space for the inverse model. The interplay between these two objectives creates useful, accurate models that can then be used for multi-step decision making. This formulation has the additional benefit that it is possible to learn forward models in an abstract feature space and thus alleviate the need of predicting pixels. Our experiments show that this joint modeling approach outperforms alternative methods.

A good model for action-effect prediction, named environment model, is important to achieve sample-efficient decision-making policy learning in many domains like robot control, recommender systems, and patients' treatment selection. We can take unlimited trials with such a model to identify the appropriate actions so that the costs of queries in the real world can be saved. It requires the model to handle unseen data correctly, also called counterfactual data. However, standard data fitting techniques do not automatically achieve such generalization ability and commonly result in unreliable models. In this work, we introduce counterfactual-query risk minimization (CQRM) in model learning for generalizing to a counterfactual dataset queried by a specific target policy. Since the target policies can be various and unknown in policy learning, we propose an adversarial CQRM objective in which the model learns on counterfactual data queried by adversarial policies, and finally derive a tractable solution GALILEO. We also discover that adversarial CQRM is closely related to the adversarial model learning, explaining the effectiveness of the latter. We apply GALILEO in synthetic tasks and a real-world application. The results show that GALILEO makes accurate predictions on counterfactual data and thus significantly improves policies in real-world testing.

Profile extrusion is a continuous production process for manufacturing plastic profiles from molten polymer. Especially interesting is the design of the die, through which the melt is pressed to attain the desired shape. However, due to an inhomogeneous velocity distribution at the die exit or residual stresses inside the extrudate, the final shape of the manufactured part often deviates from the desired one. To avoid these deviations, the shape of the die can be computationally optimized, which has already been investigated in the literature using classical optimization approaches. A new approach in the field of shape optimization is the utilization of Reinforcement Learning (RL) as a learning-based optimization algorithm. RL is based on trial-and-error interactions of an agent with an environment. For each action, the agent is rewarded and informed about the subsequent state of the environment. While not necessarily superior to classical, e.g., gradient-based or evolutionary, optimization algorithms for one single problem, RL techniques are expected to perform especially well when similar optimization tasks are repeated since the agent learns a more general strategy for generating optimal shapes instead of concentrating on just one single problem. In this work, we investigate this approach by applying it to two 2D test cases. The flow-channel geometry can be modified by the RL agent using so-called Free-Form Deformation, a method where the computational mesh is embedded into a transformation spline, which is then manipulated based on the control-point positions. In particular, we investigate the impact of utilizing different agents on the training progress and the potential of wall time saving by utilizing multiple environments during training.

Temporal abstraction and efficient planning pose significant challenges in offline reinforcement learning, mainly when dealing with domains that involve temporally extended tasks and delayed sparse rewards. Existing methods typically plan in the raw action space and can be inefficient and inflexible. Latent action spaces offer a more flexible paradigm, capturing only possible actions within the behavior policy support and decoupling the temporal structure between planning and modeling. However, current latent-action-based methods are limited to discrete spaces and require expensive planning. This paper presents a unified framework for continuous latent action space representation learning and planning by leveraging latent, score-based diffusion models. We establish the theoretical equivalence between planning in the latent action space and energy-guided sampling with a pretrained diffusion model and incorporate a novel sequence-level exact sampling method. Our proposed method, LatentDiffuser, demonstrates competitive performance on low-dimensional locomotion control tasks and surpasses existing methods in higher-dimensional tasks.

When users can benefit from certain predictive outcomes, they may be prone to act to achieve those outcome, e.g., by strategically modifying their features. The goal in strategic classification is therefore to train predictive models that are robust to such behavior. However, the conventional framework assumes that changing features does not change actual outcomes, which depicts users as "gaming" the system. Here we remove this assumption, and study learning in a causal strategic setting where true outcomes do change. Focusing on accuracy as our primary objective, we show how strategic behavior and causal effects underlie two complementing forms of distribution shift. We characterize these shifts, and propose a learning algorithm that balances between these two forces and over time, and permits end-to-end training. Experiments on synthetic and semi-synthetic data demonstrate the utility of our approach.

In offline reinforcement learning, the challenge of out-of-distribution (OOD) is pronounced. To address this, existing methods often constrain the learned policy through policy regularization. However, these methods often suffer from the issue of unnecessary conservativeness, hampering policy improvement. This occurs due to the indiscriminate use of all actions from the behavior policy that generates the offline dataset as constraints. The problem becomes particularly noticeable when the quality of the dataset is suboptimal. Thus, we propose Adaptive Advantage-guided Policy Regularization (A2PR), obtaining high-advantage actions from an augmented behavior policy combined with VAE to guide the learned policy. A2PR can select high-advantage actions that differ from those present in the dataset, while still effectively maintaining conservatism from OOD actions. This is achieved by harnessing the VAE capacity to generate samples matching the distribution of the data points. We theoretically prove that the improvement of the behavior policy is guaranteed. Besides, it effectively mitigates value overestimation with a bounded performance gap. Empirically, we conduct a series of experiments on the D4RL benchmark, where A2PR demonstrates state-of-the-art performance. Furthermore, experimental results on additional suboptimal mixed datasets reveal that A2PR exhibits superior performance. Code is available at https://github.com/ltlhuuu/A2PR.

Imitation Learning presents a promising approach for learning generalizable and complex robotic skills. The recently proposed Diffusion Policy generates robot action sequences through a conditional denoising diffusion process, achieving state-of-the-art performance compared to other imitation learning methods. This paper summarizes five key components of Diffusion Policy: 1) observation sequence input; 2) action sequence execution; 3) receding horizon; 4) U-Net or Transformer network architecture; and 5) FiLM conditioning. By conducting experiments across ManiSkill and Adroit benchmarks, this study aims to elucidate the contribution of each component to the success of Diffusion Policy in various scenarios. We hope our findings will provide valuable insights for the application of Diffusion Policy in future research and industry.

Visual imitation learning provides an effective framework to learn skills from demonstrations. However, the quality of the provided demonstrations usually significantly affects the ability of an agent to acquire desired skills. Therefore, the standard visual imitation learning assumes near-optimal demonstrations, which are expensive or sometimes prohibitive to collect. Previous works propose to learn from noisy demonstrations; however, the noise is usually assumed to follow a context-independent distribution such as a uniform or gaussian distribution. In this paper, we consider another crucial yet underexplored setting -- imitation learning with task-irrelevant yet locally consistent segments in the demonstrations (e.g., wiping sweat while cutting potatoes in a cooking tutorial). We argue that such noise is common in real world data and term them "extraneous" segments. To tackle this problem, we introduce Extraneousness-Aware Imitation Learning (EIL), a self-supervised approach that learns visuomotor policies from third-person demonstrations with extraneous subsequences. EIL learns action-conditioned observation embeddings in a self-supervised manner and retrieves task-relevant observations across visual demonstrations while excluding the extraneous ones. Experimental results show that EIL outperforms strong baselines and achieves comparable policies to those trained with perfect demonstration on both simulated and real-world robot control tasks. The project page can be found at https://sites.google.com/view/eil-website.

Generative Behavior Cloning (GBC) is a simple yet effective framework for robot learning, particularly in multi-task settings. Recent GBC methods often employ diffusion policies with open-loop (OL) control, where actions are generated via a diffusion process and executed in multi-step chunks without replanning. While this approach has demonstrated strong success rates and generalization, its inherent stochasticity can result in erroneous action sampling, occasionally leading to unexpected task failures. Moreover, OL control suffers from delayed responses, which can degrade performance in noisy or dynamic environments. To address these limitations, we propose two novel techniques to enhance the consistency and reactivity of diffusion policies: (1) self-guidance, which improves action fidelity by leveraging past observations and implicitly promoting future-aware behavior; and (2) adaptive chunking, which selectively updates action sequences when the benefits of reactivity outweigh the need for temporal consistency. Extensive experiments show that our approach substantially improves GBC performance across a wide range of simulated and real-world robotic manipulation tasks. Our code is available at https://github.com/junhyukso/SGAC

Can AI Agents simulate real-world trading environments to investigate the impact of external factors on stock trading activities (e.g., macroeconomics, policy changes, company fundamentals, and global events)? These factors, which frequently influence trading behaviors, are critical elements in the quest for maximizing investors' profits. Our work attempts to solve this problem through large language model based agents. We have developed a multi-agent AI system called StockAgent, driven by LLMs, designed to simulate investors' trading behaviors in response to the real stock market. The StockAgent allows users to evaluate the impact of different external factors on investor trading and to analyze trading behavior and profitability effects. Additionally, StockAgent avoids the test set leakage issue present in existing trading simulation systems based on AI Agents. Specifically, it prevents the model from leveraging prior knowledge it may have acquired related to the test data. We evaluate different LLMs under the framework of StockAgent in a stock trading environment that closely resembles real-world conditions. The experimental results demonstrate the impact of key external factors on stock market trading, including trading behavior and stock price fluctuation rules. This research explores the study of agents' free trading gaps in the context of no prior knowledge related to market data. The patterns identified through StockAgent simulations provide valuable insights for LLM-based investment advice and stock recommendation. The code is available at https://github.com/MingyuJ666/Stockagent.

Future- or return-conditioned supervised learning is an emerging paradigm for offline reinforcement learning (RL), where the future outcome (i.e., return) associated with an observed action sequence is used as input to a policy trained to imitate those same actions. While return-conditioning is at the heart of popular algorithms such as decision transformer (DT), these methods tend to perform poorly in highly stochastic environments, where an occasional high return can arise from randomness in the environment rather than the actions themselves. Such situations can lead to a learned policy that is inconsistent with its conditioning inputs; i.e., using the policy to act in the environment, when conditioning on a specific desired return, leads to a distribution of real returns that is wildly different than desired. In this work, we propose the dichotomy of control (DoC), a future-conditioned supervised learning framework that separates mechanisms within a policy's control (actions) from those beyond a policy's control (environment stochasticity). We achieve this separation by conditioning the policy on a latent variable representation of the future, and designing a mutual information constraint that removes any information from the latent variable associated with randomness in the environment. Theoretically, we show that DoC yields policies that are consistent with their conditioning inputs, ensuring that conditioning a learned policy on a desired high-return future outcome will correctly induce high-return behavior. Empirically, we show that DoC is able to achieve significantly better performance than DT on environments that have highly stochastic rewards and transition

Recently, action-based decision-making in open-world environments has gained significant attention. Visual Language Action (VLA) models, pretrained on large-scale web datasets, have shown promise in decision-making tasks. However, previous work has primarily focused on action post-training, often neglecting enhancements to the foundational model itself. In response, we introduce a novel approach, Act from Visual Language Post-Training, which refines Visual Language Models (VLMs) through visual and linguistic guidance in a self-supervised manner. This enhancement improves the models' capabilities in world knowledge, visual recognition, and spatial grounding in open-world environments. Following the above post-training paradigms, we obtain the first VLA models in Minecraft that can follow human instructions on over 1k different atomic tasks, including crafting, smelting, cooking, mining, and killing. Our experiments demonstrate that post-training on non-trajectory tasks leads to a significant 40% improvement over the best agent baseline on a diverse set of atomic tasks. Furthermore, we demonstrate that our approach surpasses traditional imitation learning-based policies in Minecraft, achieving state-of-the-art performance. We have open-sourced the code, models, and datasets to foster further research. The project page can be found in https://craftjarvis.github.io/JarvisVLA.