Daily Papers

Unified models for robot manipulation aim to equip one policy with both the semantic priors of pretrained VLMs and the physical dynamics learned through future prediction. In practice, existing designs tend to erode the semantics of the pretrained backbone, suffer interference among heterogeneous objectives, and learn future prediction from scratch in pixel space, leaving the dynamics priors of pretrained video generators unexploited. We present InternVLA-A1.5, which builds the policy on a native VLM backbone that keeps training on VQA and subtask prediction, and attaches a lightweight unified expert for continuous action generation. Future prediction is recast as a latent-querying problem, where a small set of learnable foresight tokens condenses the task-relevant future into a compact latent code under the supervision of a frozen pretrained video generation model, so the policy inherits world-model dynamics priors without ever learning pixel-level generation. The video branch is discarded at inference, keeping real-time control. Pretrained on 1.2M robot episodes and 3M multimodal samples, InternVLA-A1.5 achieves the best overall results on all six simulation benchmarks. In the real world, the preserved semantics deliver the strongest compositional generalization on held-out instruction bindings, and the two designs together sustain long-horizon execution.

World action models jointly predict future video and action during training, raising an open question about what role the future-prediction branch actually plays. A recent finding shows that this branch can be removed at inference with little to no loss on common manipulation benchmarks, suggesting that future information may act merely as a regularizer on the shared visual backbone. We propose instead that joint training induces an action-conditioned correction that privileged future observations impose on action denoising, and that current-only policies capture this correction only partially. Making the account precise, we formulate privileged foresight as a residual in the action-denoising direction -- the difference between what a model predicts given the true future and what it predicts given only the current frame -- and introduce Privileged Foresight Distillation (PFD), which transfers this residual from a training-time teacher into a small adapter on a current-only student. The teacher and student share the same backbone and differ only in the attention mask over video tokens; future video is never generated at inference. Controlled experiments verify that this gain reflects a genuine future-conditioned correction rather than a side effect of capacity or regularization. Empirically, PFD achieves consistent improvements on LIBERO and RoboTwin manipulation benchmarks while preserving the current-only inference interface at negligible added latency. This view reframes the role of future information in world action models: not as a target to predict, nor as a regularizer to absorb, but as a compressible correction to be distilled.

Autoregressive (AR) visual generators model images as sequences of discrete tokens and are trained with a next-token likelihood objective. This strict causal supervision optimizes each step based only on the immediate next token, which can weaken global coherence and slow convergence. We investigate whether foresight, training signals that originate from later tokens, can improve autoregressive visual generation. We conduct a series of controlled diagnostics along the injection level, foresight layout, and foresight source axes, revealing a key insight: aligning foresight with AR models' internal representations on the 2D image grid improves causal modeling. We formulate this insight with Mirai (meaning "future" in Japanese), a general framework that injects future information into AR training with no architecture change and no extra inference overhead: Mirai-E uses explicit foresight from multiple future positions of unidirectional representations, whereas Mirai-I leverages implicit foresight from matched bidirectional representations. Extensive experiments show that Mirai significantly accelerates convergence and improves generation quality. For instance, Mirai can speed up LlamaGen-B's convergence by up to 10times and reduce the generation FID from 5.34 to 4.34 on the ImageNet class-condition image generation benchmark. Our study highlights that visual autoregressive models need foresight.

Humans possess the remarkable ability to foresee the future to a certain extent based on present observations, a skill we term as foresight minds. However, this capability remains largely under explored within existing Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs), hindering their capacity to learn the fundamental principles of how things operate and the intentions behind the observed subjects. To address this issue, we introduce the integration of future modeling into the existing learning frameworks of MLLMs. By utilizing the subject trajectory, a highly structured representation of a consecutive frame sequence, as a learning objective, we aim to bridge the gap between the past and the future. We propose two innovative methods to empower MLLMs with foresight minds, Foresight Pre-Training (FPT) and Foresight Instruction-Tuning (FIT), which are inspired by the modern learning paradigm of LLMs. Specifically, FPT jointly training various tasks centered on trajectories, enabling MLLMs to learn how to attend and predict entire trajectories from a given initial observation. Then, FIT requires MLLMs to first predict trajectories of related objects and then reason about potential future events based on them. Aided by FPT and FIT, we build a novel and unified MLLM named Merlin that supports multi-images input and analysis about potential actions of multiple objects for the future reasoning. Experimental results show Merlin powerful foresight minds with impressive performance on both future reasoning and visual comprehension tasks.

Background: Electronic Health Records hold detailed longitudinal information about each patient's health status and general clinical history, a large portion of which is stored within the unstructured text. Existing approaches focus mostly on structured data and a subset of single-domain outcomes. We explore how temporal modelling of patients from free text and structured data, using deep generative transformers can be used to forecast a wide range of future disorders, substances, procedures or findings. Methods: We present Foresight, a novel transformer-based pipeline that uses named entity recognition and linking tools to convert document text into structured, coded concepts, followed by providing probabilistic forecasts for future medical events such as disorders, substances, procedures and findings. We processed the entire free-text portion from three different hospital datasets totalling 811336 patients covering both physical and mental health. Findings: On tests in two UK hospitals (King's College Hospital, South London and Maudsley) and the US MIMIC-III dataset precision@10 0.68, 0.76 and 0.88 was achieved for forecasting the next disorder in a patient timeline, while precision@10 of 0.80, 0.81 and 0.91 was achieved for forecasting the next biomedical concept. Foresight was also validated on 34 synthetic patient timelines by five clinicians and achieved relevancy of 97% for the top forecasted candidate disorder. As a generative model, it can forecast follow-on biomedical concepts for as many steps as required. Interpretation: Foresight is a general-purpose model for biomedical concept modelling that can be used for real-world risk forecasting, virtual trials and clinical research to study the progression of disorders, simulate interventions and counterfactuals, and educational purposes.

Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models convert high-level language instructions into concrete, executable actions, a task that is especially challenging in open-world environments. We present Visual Foresight Planning (ForeAct), a general and efficient planner that guides a VLA step-by-step using imagined future observations and subtask descriptions. With an imagined future observation, the VLA can focus on visuo-motor inference rather than high-level semantic reasoning, leading to improved accuracy and generalization. Our planner comprises a highly efficient foresight image generation module that predicts a high-quality 640times480 future observation from the current visual input and language instruction within only 0.33s on an H100 GPU, together with a vision-language model that reasons over the task and produces subtask descriptions for both the generator and the VLA. Importantly, state-of-the-art VLAs can integrate our planner seamlessly by simply augmenting their visual inputs, without any architectural modification. The foresight generator is pretrained on over 1 million multi-task, cross-embodiment episodes, enabling it to learn robust embodied dynamics. We evaluate our framework on a benchmark that consists of 11 diverse, multi-step real-world tasks. It achieves an average success rate of 87.4%, demonstrating a +40.9% absolute improvement over the π_0 baseline (46.5%) and a +30.3% absolute improvement over π_0 augmented with textual subtask guidance (57.1%).

Next-token prediction (NTP) has driven the success of large language models (LLMs), but it struggles with long-horizon reasoning, planning, and creative writing, with these limitations largely attributed to teacher-forced training. Multi-token prediction (MTP) partially mitigates these issues by predicting several future tokens at once, but it mostly captures short-range dependencies and offers limited improvement. We propose future summary prediction (FSP), which trains an auxiliary head to predict a compact representation of the long-term future, preserving information relevant for long-form generations. We explore two variants of FSP: handcrafted summaries, for example, a bag of words summary of the future sequence, and learned summaries, which use embeddings produced by a reverse language model trained from right-to-left order. Large-scale pretraining experiments (3B and 8B-parameter models) demonstrate that FSP provides improvements over both NTP and MTP across math, reasoning, and coding benchmarks.

Speculative decoding has emerged as a powerful approach to accelerate large language model (LLM) inference by employing lightweight draft models to propose candidate tokens that are subsequently verified by the target model. The effectiveness of this paradigm critically depends on the quality of the draft model. While recent advances such as the EAGLE series achieve state-of-the-art speedup, existing draft models remain limited by error accumulation: they condition only on the current prefix, causing their predictions to drift from the target model over steps. In this work, we propose ConFu (Contemplate the Future), a novel speculative decoding framework that enables draft models to anticipate the future direction of generation. ConFu introduces (i) contemplate tokens and soft prompts that allow the draft model to leverage future-oriented signals from the target model at negligible cost, (ii) a dynamic contemplate token mechanism with MoE to enable context-aware future prediction, and (iii) a training framework with anchor token sampling and future prediction replication that learns robust future prediction. Experiments demonstrate that ConFu improves token acceptance rates and generation speed over EAGLE-3 by 8--11% across various downstream tasks with Llama-3 3B and 8B models. We believe our work is the first to bridge speculative decoding with continuous reasoning tokens, offering a new direction for accelerating LLM inference.

Anticipating diverse future states is a central challenge in video world modeling. Discriminative world models produce a deterministic prediction that implicitly averages over possible futures, while existing generative world models remain computationally expensive. Recent work demonstrates that predicting the future in the feature space of a vision foundation model (VFM), rather than a latent space optimized for pixel reconstruction, requires significantly fewer world model parameters. However, most such approaches remain discriminative. In this work, we introduce DeltaTok, a tokenizer that encodes the VFM feature difference between consecutive frames into a single continuous "delta" token, and DeltaWorld, a generative world model operating on these tokens to efficiently generate diverse plausible futures. Delta tokens reduce video from a three-dimensional spatio-temporal representation to a one-dimensional temporal sequence, for example yielding a 1,024x token reduction with 512x512 frames. This compact representation enables tractable multi-hypothesis training, where many futures are generated in parallel and only the best is supervised. At inference, this leads to diverse predictions in a single forward pass. Experiments on dense forecasting tasks demonstrate that DeltaWorld forecasts futures that more closely align with real-world outcomes, while having over 35x fewer parameters and using 2,000x fewer FLOPs than existing generative world models. Code and weights: https://deltatok.github.io.

Reasoning capability has advanced rapidly in large language models (LLMs), leading to an increasing size of key-value (KV) cache in both prefilling and decoding stages. Existing KV cache compression methods mainly rely on attention weights to estimate token importance. While attention effectively captures contextual relevance, it overlooks complementary information-theoretic signals related to predictive uncertainty and token informativeness. In this paper, we revisit token importance from a forward-looking perspective and introduce Forward Influence, a metric that measures how compressed tokens affect future contexts. Our analysis reveals that tokens selected by attention scores mainly influence nearby contexts, whereas tokens associated with high predictive uncertainty exhibit substantially stronger influence on distant future contexts. Based on the observation, we propose InfoKV, an entropy-aware KV cache compression framework that incorporates information-theoretic signals. It combines token-level predictive uncertainty with layer-wise representation evolution and integrates the resulting entropy scores with attention scores during reasoning. Experiments on long-context reasoning benchmarks with Llama-3.1, Llama-3.2, and DeepSeek-R1 demonstrate that InfoKV consistently outperforms existing attention-based KV compression methods in both long prefilling and decoding scenarios.

Can a mere next-token predictor faithfully model human intelligence? We crystallize this intuitive concern, which is fragmented in the literature. As a starting point, we argue that the two often-conflated phases of next-token prediction -- autoregressive inference and teacher-forced training -- must be treated distinctly. The popular criticism that errors can compound during autoregressive inference, crucially assumes that teacher-forcing has learned an accurate next-token predictor. This assumption sidesteps a more deep-rooted problem we expose: in certain classes of tasks, teacher-forcing can simply fail to learn an accurate next-token predictor in the first place. We describe a general mechanism of how teacher-forcing can fail, and design a minimal planning task where both the Transformer and the Mamba architecture empirically fail in that manner -- remarkably, despite the task being straightforward to learn. We provide preliminary evidence that this failure can be resolved when training to predict multiple tokens in advance. We hope this finding can ground future debates and inspire explorations beyond the next-token prediction paradigm. We make our code available under https://github.com/gregorbachmann/Next-Token-Failures

In this short report, we introduce joint multi-token prediction (JTP), a lightweight modification of standard next-token prediction designed to enrich hidden state representations by jointly predicting multiple future tokens. Unlike previous multi-token prediction approaches, JTP strategically employs teacher forcing of future-tokens through a carefully designed representation bottleneck, allowing the model to encode rich predictive information with minimal computational overhead during training. We show that the JTP approach achieves a short-horizon belief state representation, while popular alternatives for multi-token prediction fail to do so. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method on the synthetic star graph navigation task from from Bachmann and Nagarajan [2024], highlighting a significant performance improvement over existing methods. This manuscript presents promising preliminary results intended to stimulate further research.

Time series forecasting plays a vital role in supporting decision-making across a wide range of critical applications, including energy, healthcare, and finance. Despite recent advances, forecasting accuracy remains limited due to the challenge of integrating historical numerical sequences with contextual features, which often comprise unstructured textual data. To address this challenge, we propose TokenCast, an LLM-driven framework that leverages language-based symbolic representations as a unified intermediary for context-aware time series forecasting. Specifically, TokenCast employs a discrete tokenizer to transform continuous numerical sequences into temporal tokens, enabling structural alignment with language-based inputs. To bridge the semantic gap between modalities, both temporal and contextual tokens are embedded into a shared representation space via a pre-trained large language model (LLM), further optimized with autoregressive generative objectives. Building upon this unified semantic space, the aligned LLM is subsequently fine-tuned in a supervised manner to predict future temporal tokens, which are then decoded back into the original numerical space. Extensive experiments on diverse real-world datasets enriched with contextual features demonstrate the effectiveness and generalizability of TokenCast.

Risk disclosures in SEC filings describe potential adverse events but rarely quantify their likelihood, limiting their usefulness for probabilistic analysis. A central obstacle is the absence of large-scale, risk-level supervision linking disclosed risks to realized outcomes. We introduce a fully automated data generation pipeline that converts qualitative SEC risk disclosures into temporally grounded supervision using only public data. For each filing, the pipeline generates firm-specific, time-bounded risk queries from the Risk Factors section and labels them by automatically resolving outcomes against subsequent disclosures. Using this dataset of risk queries and outcomes grounded in SEC filings, we train a compact large language model to estimate the probability that a disclosed risk will materialize within a specified horizon. Despite its modest size, the resulting model substantially improves over pretrained and heuristic baselines, and outperforms frontier general-purpose models, including GPT-5, on probabilistic accuracy and calibration. More broadly, this work demonstrates that Foresight Learning enables scalable and fully automated training of domain-specific expert models using only raw, chronological, in-domain text -- without proprietary data, external corpora, or manual annotation. The resulting models achieve frontier-level performance while remaining deployable on a single GPU. This result suggests a general pathway for learning calibrated, decision-relevant signals from naturally occurring enterprise documents. To support transparency and reproducibility, we open-source the evaluation dataset used in this study. Evaluation Data: https://huggingface.co/datasets/LightningRodLabs/sec_risk_questions_test_set Data Generation Platform: https://lightningrod.ai/ SDK: https://github.com/lightning-rod-labs/lightningrod-python-sdk

Many real-world prediction problems lack labels observable at prediction time, creating a temporal gap between prediction and outcome that yields supervision only after events resolve. To address this setting, we extend reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards to temporally resolved real-world prediction, and use it to train language models to make probabilistic forecasts under causally masked information with retrospective evaluation using proper scoring rules. Supervision is derived solely from post-resolution outcomes, preserving delayed-reward semantics. On real-world forecasting benchmarks, Qwen3-32B trained using Foresight Learning improves Brier score by 27% and halves calibration error relative to its pretrained baseline, and outperforms Qwen3-235B on both constructed future-event prediction tasks and the Metaculus benchmark despite a 7x parameter disadvantage.

We conjecture that hidden state vectors corresponding to individual input tokens encode information sufficient to accurately predict several tokens ahead. More concretely, in this paper we ask: Given a hidden (internal) representation of a single token at position t in an input, can we reliably anticipate the tokens that will appear at positions geq t + 2? To test this, we measure linear approximation and causal intervention methods in GPT-J-6B to evaluate the degree to which individual hidden states in the network contain signal rich enough to predict future hidden states and, ultimately, token outputs. We find that, at some layers, we can approximate a model's output with more than 48% accuracy with respect to its prediction of subsequent tokens through a single hidden state. Finally we present a "Future Lens" visualization that uses these methods to create a new view of transformer states.

Conventional Vision-Language Models(VLMs) typically utilize a fixed number of vision tokens, regardless of task complexity. This one-size-fits-all strategy introduces notable inefficiencies: using excessive tokens leads to unnecessary computational overhead in simpler tasks, whereas insufficient tokens compromise fine-grained visual comprehension in more complex contexts. To overcome these limitations, we present TokenFLEX, an innovative and adaptable vision-language framework that encodes images into a variable number of tokens for efficient integration with a Large Language Model (LLM). Our approach is underpinned by two pivotal innovations. Firstly, we present a novel training paradigm that enhances performance across varying numbers of vision tokens by stochastically modulating token counts during training. Secondly, we design a lightweight vision token projector incorporating an adaptive pooling layer and SwiGLU, allowing for flexible downsampling of vision tokens and adaptive selection of features tailored to specific token counts. Comprehensive experiments reveal that TokenFLEX consistently outperforms its fixed-token counterparts, achieving notable performance gains across various token counts enhancements of 1.6%, 1.0%, and 0.4% with 64, 144, and 256 tokens, respectively averaged over eight vision-language benchmarks. These results underscore TokenFLEX's remarkable flexibility while maintaining high-performance vision-language understanding.

Autoregressive language models are constrained by their inherently sequential nature, generating one token at a time. This paradigm limits inference speed and parallelism, especially during later stages of generation when the direction and semantics of text are relatively certain. In this work, we propose a novel framework that leverages the inherent knowledge of vanilla autoregressive language models about future tokens, combining techniques to realize this potential and enable simultaneous prediction of multiple subsequent tokens. Our approach introduces several key innovations: (1) a masked-input formulation where multiple future tokens are jointly predicted from a common prefix; (2) a gated LoRA formulation that preserves the original LLM's functionality, while equipping it for multi-token prediction; (3) a lightweight, learnable sampler module that generates coherent sequences from the predicted future tokens; (4) a set of auxiliary training losses, including a consistency loss, to enhance the coherence and accuracy of jointly generated tokens; and (5) a speculative generation strategy that expands tokens quadratically in the future while maintaining high fidelity. Our method achieves significant speedups through supervised fine-tuning on pretrained models. For example, it generates code and math nearly 5x faster, and improves general chat and knowledge tasks by almost 2.5x. These gains come without any loss in quality.

Forecasting innovation, intended as the emergence of new technological combinations, is a fundamental challenge for science and policy. We show that forthcoming combinations leave an early trace in the collective language of patents, with predictive signals detectable even decades in advance. We show that signal is not attributable to any single inventor, but emerges as a collective shift in how technologies are described across thousands of patents. To this end, we introduce TechToken, a transformer-based model that treats technologies, classified by International Patent Classification codes, as words in its vocabulary, learning the language of technologies by embedding these codes during fine-tuning. We define context similarity between code embeddings as a measure of linguistic convergence and show that it accurately predicts first technological combinations. TechToken also improves general representation quality, outperforming state-of-the-art models across different patent-related tasks.

Building on the foundations of language modeling in natural language processing, Next Token Prediction (NTP) has evolved into a versatile training objective for machine learning tasks across various modalities, achieving considerable success. As Large Language Models (LLMs) have advanced to unify understanding and generation tasks within the textual modality, recent research has shown that tasks from different modalities can also be effectively encapsulated within the NTP framework, transforming the multimodal information into tokens and predict the next one given the context. This survey introduces a comprehensive taxonomy that unifies both understanding and generation within multimodal learning through the lens of NTP. The proposed taxonomy covers five key aspects: Multimodal tokenization, MMNTP model architectures, unified task representation, datasets \& evaluation, and open challenges. This new taxonomy aims to aid researchers in their exploration of multimodal intelligence. An associated GitHub repository collecting the latest papers and repos is available at https://github.com/LMM101/Awesome-Multimodal-Next-Token-Prediction

Transformers have become an indispensable module for text generation models since their great success in machine translation. Previous works attribute the~success of transformers to the query-key-value dot-product attention, which provides a robust inductive bias by the fully connected token graphs. However, we found that self-attention has a severe limitation. When predicting the (i+1)-th token, self-attention only takes the i-th token as an information collector, and it tends to give a high attention weight to those tokens similar to itself. Therefore, most of the historical information that occurred before the i-th token is not taken into consideration. Based on this observation, in this paper, we propose a new architecture, called bird-eye transformer(BET), which goes one step further to improve the performance of transformers by reweighting self-attention to encourage it to focus more on important historical information. We have conducted experiments on multiple text generation tasks, including machine translation (2 datasets) and language models (3 datasets). These experimental~results show that our proposed model achieves a better performance than the baseline transformer architectures on~all~datasets. The code is released at: https://sites.google.com/view/bet-transformer/home.

Despite their remarkable success in language modeling, transformers trained to predict the next token in a sequence struggle with long-term planning. This limitation is particularly evident in tasks requiring foresight to plan multiple steps ahead such as maze navigation. The standard next single token prediction objective, however, offers no explicit mechanism to predict multiple steps ahead - or revisit the path taken so far. Consequently, in this work we study whether explicitly predicting multiple steps ahead (and backwards) can improve transformers' maze navigation. We train parameter-matched transformers from scratch, under identical settings, to navigate mazes of varying types and sizes with standard next token prediction and MLM-U, an objective explicitly predicting multiple steps ahead and backwards. We find that MLM-U considerably improves transformers' ability to navigate mazes compared to standard next token prediction across maze types and complexities. We also find MLM-U training is 4x more sample efficient and converges 2x faster in terms of GPU training hours relative to next token training. Finally, for more complex mazes we find MLM-U benefits from scaling to larger transformers. Remarkably, we find transformers trained with MLM-U outperform larger transformers trained with next token prediction using additional supervision from A* search traces. We hope these findings underscore the promise of learning objectives to advance transformers' capacity for long-term planning.

Egocentric gaze estimation is commonly studied using models that process the full video with access to future frames, while real-world applications require strictly causal, online prediction. This discrepancy raises key questions: Does future context inherently provide valuable signals for gaze estimation? If so, how much future look-ahead optimally supervises a causal model during training? To investigate, we propose a controlled framework featuring a future-aware branch that accesses a tunable look-ahead horizon during training but is discarded at inference. This design isolates the impact of future context while keeping the inference architecture fixed and strictly causal. Across EGTEA Gaze+ and Ego4D, we find that future-privileged supervision consistently improves causal gaze prediction, confirming its utility. However, performance gains do not increase monotonically with longer look-ahead, but rather peak within a bounded temporal regime. Specifically, optimal performance corresponds to roughly 1.7--3.3 seconds of future context (H{in}[5, 10]) on EGTEA Gaze+ and 2.7 seconds (H{=}10) on Ego4D. Our results demonstrate that lightweight causal models can effectively absorb future-aware signals, providing practical guidance for real-time egocentric gaze modeling.

Causal decoder-only transformer models used for generative language modelling, such as Generative Pre-trained Transformers (GPT), are trained to predict the next token in a sequence based only on its previous tokens. Despite this simple training objective, they have proved to be powerful AI tools. However, only predicting the next token results in top layer embedding vectors that are highly token-focused. There may be benefits in generating embedding vectors at each token position that better capture the overall meaning of longer sequences of future text. Recent studies matching brain scans with deep language models suggest that humans also predict upcoming words when listening or reading but consider multiple future tokens rather than just one. This research investigates a new pretraining method called Future Token Prediction (FTP). In FTP, a large transformer encoder generates top layer embedding vectors for each token position, which, instead of being passed to a language head, are linearly and expansively projected to a pseudo-sequence, which is cross attended to by a small transformer decoder to predict the next N tokens forward from that position in the sequence. The top layer embedding vectors from FTP models exhibit distinct properties compared to those from standard GPT models, varying smoothly along a text sequence as measured by cosine similarity between adjacent tokens. Text generated by FTP models show improved topic coherence compared to standard GPT-like models trained with the same prediction perplexity for the next single token. The vectors are shown to better represent the topic of text based on the results of text classification examples. On a toy, but complex, coding problem, FTP networks produce significantly better results than GPT networks.

With the development of large language models (LLMs), efficient inference through Key-Value (KV) cache compression has attracted considerable attention, especially for long-context generation. To compress the KV cache, recent methods identify critical KV tokens through heuristic ranking with attention scores. However, these methods often struggle to accurately determine critical tokens as they neglect the temporal patterns in attention scores, resulting in a noticeable degradation in LLM performance. To address this challenge, we propose AttentionPredictor, which is the first learning-based critical token identification approach. Specifically, AttentionPredictor learns a lightweight convolution model to capture spatiotemporal patterns and predict the next-token attention score. An appealing feature of AttentionPredictor is that it accurately predicts the attention score while consuming negligible memory. Moreover, we propose a cross-token critical cache prefetching framework that hides the token estimation time overhead to accelerate the decoding stage. By retaining most of the attention information, AttentionPredictor achieves 16times KV cache compression with comparable LLM performance, significantly outperforming the state-of-the-art.

Multimodal language models (MLMs) still face challenges in fundamental visual perception tasks where specialized models excel. Tasks requiring reasoning about 3D structures benefit from depth estimation, and reasoning about 2D object instances benefits from object detection. Yet, MLMs can not produce intermediate depth or boxes to reason over. Finetuning MLMs on relevant data doesn't generalize well and outsourcing computation to specialized vision tools is too compute-intensive and memory-inefficient. To address this, we introduce Perception Tokens, intrinsic image representations designed to assist reasoning tasks where language is insufficient. Perception tokens act as auxiliary reasoning tokens, akin to chain-of-thought prompts in language models. For example, in a depth-related task, an MLM augmented with perception tokens can reason by generating a depth map as tokens, enabling it to solve the problem effectively. We propose AURORA, a training method that augments MLMs with perception tokens for improved reasoning over visual inputs. AURORA leverages a VQVAE to transform intermediate image representations, such as depth maps into a tokenized format and bounding box tokens, which is then used in a multi-task training framework. AURORA achieves notable improvements across counting benchmarks: +10.8% on BLINK, +11.3% on CVBench, and +8.3% on SEED-Bench, outperforming finetuning approaches in generalization across datasets. It also improves on relative depth: over +6% on BLINK. With perception tokens, AURORA expands the scope of MLMs beyond language-based reasoning, paving the way for more effective visual reasoning capabilities.

Tokenization is a key component of autoregressive (AR) generative models, converting raw data into more manageable units for modeling. Commonly, tokens describe local information, such as regions of pixels in images or word pieces in text, and AR generation predicts these tokens in a fixed order. A worthwhile question is whether token structures affect the ability to steer the generation through test-time search, where multiple candidate generations are explored and evaluated by a verifier. Using image generation as our testbed, we hypothesize that recent 1D ordered tokenizers with coarse-to-fine structure can be more amenable to search than classical 2D grid structures. This is rooted in the fact that the intermediate states in coarse-to-fine sequences carry semantic meaning that verifiers can reliably evaluate, enabling effective steering during generation. Through controlled experiments, we find that AR models trained on coarse-to-fine ordered tokens exhibit improved test-time scaling behavior compared to grid-based counterparts. Moreover, we demonstrate that, thanks to the ordered structure, pure test-time search over token sequences (i.e., without training an AR model) can perform training-free text-to-image generation when guided by an image-text verifier. Beyond this, we systematically study how classical search algorithms (best-of-N, beam search, lookahead search) interact with different token structures, as well as the role of different verifiers and AR priors. Our results highlight the impact of token structure on inference-time scalability and provide practical guidance for test-time scaling in AR models.

Longitudinal clinical notes contain rich evidence of how patients evolve over time, but converting this signal into training supervision for clinical prediction remains challenging. We extend Foresight Learning to clinical prediction by converting time-ordered MIMIC-III notes into examples consisting of past patient context, a natural-language question about a possible future event, and a label resolved from later documentation. This process yields 6,900 prediction examples from 702 admissions across medications, procedures, organ support, microbiology, and mortality. A small LoRA adapter trained on these examples improves over the prompted base model, reducing expected calibration error from 0.1269 to 0.0398 and Brier score from 0.199 to 0.145, while slightly outperforming GPT-5 point estimates on held-out questions. The approach enables reusable clinical prediction supervision from longitudinal notes without hand-engineered structured features or endpoint-specific classifiers.

Predicting future dynamics is crucial for applications like autonomous driving and robotics, where understanding the environment is key. Existing pixel-level methods are computationally expensive and often focus on irrelevant details. To address these challenges, we introduce DINO-Foresight, a novel framework that operates in the semantic feature space of pretrained Vision Foundation Models (VFMs). Our approach trains a masked feature transformer in a self-supervised manner to predict the evolution of VFM features over time. By forecasting these features, we can apply off-the-shelf, task-specific heads for various scene understanding tasks. In this framework, VFM features are treated as a latent space, to which different heads attach to perform specific tasks for future-frame analysis. Extensive experiments show that our framework outperforms existing methods, demonstrating its robustness and scalability. Additionally, we highlight how intermediate transformer representations in DINO-Foresight improve downstream task performance, offering a promising path for the self-supervised enhancement of VFM features. We provide the implementation code at https://github.com/Sta8is/DINO-Foresight .

This paper presents a new sequence-to-sequence pre-training model called ProphetNet, which introduces a novel self-supervised objective named future n-gram prediction and the proposed n-stream self-attention mechanism. Instead of optimizing one-step-ahead prediction in the traditional sequence-to-sequence model, the ProphetNet is optimized by n-step ahead prediction that predicts the next n tokens simultaneously based on previous context tokens at each time step. The future n-gram prediction explicitly encourages the model to plan for the future tokens and prevent overfitting on strong local correlations. We pre-train ProphetNet using a base scale dataset (16GB) and a large-scale dataset (160GB), respectively. Then we conduct experiments on CNN/DailyMail, Gigaword, and SQuAD 1.1 benchmarks for abstractive summarization and question generation tasks. Experimental results show that ProphetNet achieves new state-of-the-art results on all these datasets compared to the models using the same scale pre-training corpus.

While next-token prediction is considered a promising path towards artificial general intelligence, it has struggled to excel in multimodal tasks, which are still dominated by diffusion models (e.g., Stable Diffusion) and compositional approaches (e.g., CLIP combined with LLMs). In this paper, we introduce Emu3, a new suite of state-of-the-art multimodal models trained solely with next-token prediction. By tokenizing images, text, and videos into a discrete space, we train a single transformer from scratch on a mixture of multimodal sequences. Emu3 outperforms several well-established task-specific models in both generation and perception tasks, surpassing flagship models such as SDXL and LLaVA-1.6, while eliminating the need for diffusion or compositional architectures. Emu3 is also capable of generating high-fidelity video via predicting the next token in a video sequence. We simplify complex multimodal model designs by converging on a singular focus: tokens, unlocking great potential for scaling both during training and inference. Our results demonstrate that next-token prediction is a promising path towards building general multimodal intelligence beyond language. We open-source key techniques and models to support further research in this direction.

The rapid growth in the parameters of large language models (LLMs) has made inference latency a fundamental bottleneck, limiting broader application of LLMs. Speculative decoding represents a lossless approach to accelerate inference through a guess-and-verify paradigm, leveraging the parallel capabilities of modern hardware. Some speculative decoding methods rely on additional structures to guess draft tokens, such as small models or parameter-efficient architectures, which need extra training before use. Alternatively, retrieval-based train-free techniques build libraries from pre-existing corpora or by n-gram generation. However, they face challenges like large storage requirements, time-consuming retrieval, and limited adaptability. Observing that candidate tokens generated during the decoding process are likely to reoccur in future sequences, we propose Token Recycling. This approach stores candidate tokens in an adjacency matrix and employs a breadth-first search (BFS)-like algorithm on the matrix to construct a draft tree. The tree is then validated through tree attention. New candidate tokens from the decoding process are then used to update the matrix. Token Recycling requires \textless2MB of additional storage and achieves approximately 2x speedup across all sizes of LLMs. It significantly outperforms existing train-free methods by 30\% and even a training method by 25\%. It can be directly applied to any existing LLMs and tasks without the need for adaptation.

Document parsing, as a fundamental yet crucial vision task, is being revolutionized by vision-language models (VLMs). However, the autoregressive (AR) decoding inherent to VLMs creates a significant bottleneck, severely limiting parsing speed. In this paper, we propose Parallel-Token Prediction (PTP), a plugable, model-agnostic and simple-yet-effective method that enables VLMs to generate multiple future tokens in parallel with improved sample efficiency. Specifically, we insert some learnable tokens into the input sequence and design corresponding training objectives to equip the model with parallel decoding capabilities for document parsing. Furthermore, to support effective training, we develop a comprehensive data generation pipeline that efficiently produces large-scale, high-quality document parsing training data for VLMs. Extensive experiments on OmniDocBench and olmOCR-bench demonstrate that our method not only significantly improves decoding speed (1.6x-2.2x) but also reduces model hallucinations and exhibits strong generalization abilities.

Autoregressive (AR) modeling, known for its next-token prediction paradigm, underpins state-of-the-art language and visual generative models. Traditionally, a ``token'' is treated as the smallest prediction unit, often a discrete symbol in language or a quantized patch in vision. However, the optimal token definition for 2D image structures remains an open question. Moreover, AR models suffer from exposure bias, where teacher forcing during training leads to error accumulation at inference. In this paper, we propose xAR, a generalized AR framework that extends the notion of a token to an entity X, which can represent an individual patch token, a cell (a ktimes k grouping of neighboring patches), a subsample (a non-local grouping of distant patches), a scale (coarse-to-fine resolution), or even a whole image. Additionally, we reformulate discrete token classification as continuous entity regression, leveraging flow-matching methods at each AR step. This approach conditions training on noisy entities instead of ground truth tokens, leading to Noisy Context Learning, which effectively alleviates exposure bias. As a result, xAR offers two key advantages: (1) it enables flexible prediction units that capture different contextual granularity and spatial structures, and (2) it mitigates exposure bias by avoiding reliance on teacher forcing. On ImageNet-256 generation benchmark, our base model, xAR-B (172M), outperforms DiT-XL/SiT-XL (675M) while achieving 20times faster inference. Meanwhile, xAR-H sets a new state-of-the-art with an FID of 1.24, running 2.2times faster than the previous best-performing model without relying on vision foundation modules (\eg, DINOv2) or advanced guidance interval sampling.

Large language models (LLMs) exhibit latent multi-token prediction (MTP) capabilities despite being trained solely for next-token generation. We propose a simple, training-free MTP approach that probes an LLM using on-the-fly mask tokens drawn from its embedding space, enabling parallel prediction of future tokens without modifying model weights or relying on auxiliary draft models. Our method constructs a speculative token tree by sampling top-K candidates from mask-token logits and applies a lightweight pruning strategy to retain high-probability continuations. During decoding, candidate predictions are verified in parallel, resulting in lossless generation while substantially reducing the number of model calls and improving token throughput. Across benchmarks, our probing-based MTP consistently outperforms existing training-free baselines, increasing acceptance length by approximately 12\% on LLaMA3 and 8--12\% on Qwen3, and achieving throughput gains of up to 15--19\%. Finally, we provide theoretical insights and empirical evidence showing that decoder layers naturally align mask-token representations with next-token states, enabling accurate multi-step prediction without retraining or auxiliary models.

Speculative decoding (SPD) aims to accelerate the auto-regressive token generation process of a target Large Language Model (LLM). Some approaches employ a draft model with multiple heads to predict a sequence of future tokens, where each head handles a token in the sequence. The target LLM verifies the predicted sequence and accepts aligned tokens, enabling efficient multi-token generation. However, existing methods assume that all tokens within a sequence are equally important, employing identical head structures and relying on a single-generation paradigm, either serial or parallel. To this end, we theoretically demonstrate that initial tokens in the draft sequence are more important than later ones. Building on this insight, we propose Gumiho, a hybrid model combining serial and parallel heads. Specifically, given the critical importance of early tokens, we employ a sophisticated Transformer architecture for the early draft heads in a serial configuration to improve accuracy. For later tokens, we utilize multiple lightweight MLP heads operating in parallel to enhance efficiency. By allocating more advanced model structures and longer running times to the early heads, Gumiho achieves improved overall performance. The experimental results demonstrate that our method outperforms existing approaches, fully validating its effectiveness.

Next-token prediction models have predominantly relied on decoder-only Transformers with causal attention, driven by the common belief that causal attention is essential to prevent "cheating" by masking future tokens. We challenge this widely accepted notion and argue that this design choice is about efficiency rather than necessity. While decoder-only Transformers are still a good choice for practical reasons, they are not the only viable option. In this work, we introduce Encoder-only Next Token Prediction (ENTP). We explore the differences between ENTP and decoder-only Transformers in expressive power and complexity, highlighting potential advantages of ENTP. We introduce the Triplet-Counting task and show, both theoretically and experimentally, that while ENTP can perform this task easily, a decoder-only Transformer cannot. Finally, we empirically demonstrate ENTP's superior performance across various realistic tasks, such as length generalization and in-context learning.

Next token prediction paradigm has been prevailing for autoregressive models in the era of LLMs. The current default sampling choice for popular LLMs is temperature scaling together with nucleus sampling to balance diversity and coherence. Nevertheless, such approach leads to inferior performance in various NLP tasks when the model is not certain about testing questions. To this end, we propose a brand new training-free decoding strategy, dubbed as Cautious Next Token Prediction (CNTP). In the decoding process, if the model has comparatively high prediction entropy at a certain step, we sample multiple trials starting from the step independently and stop when encountering any punctuation. Then we select the trial with the lowest perplexity score viewed as the most probable and reliable trial path given the model's capacity. The trial number is negatively correlated with the prediction confidence, i.e., the less confident the model is, the more trials it should sample. This is consistent with human beings' behaviour: when feeling uncertain or unconfident, one tends to think more creatively, exploring multiple thinking paths, to cautiously select the path one feels most confident about. Extensive experiments on both LLMs and MLLMs show that our proposed CNTP approach outperforms existing standard decoding strategies consistently by a clear margin. Moreover, the integration of CNTP with self consistency can further improve over vanilla self consistency. We believe our proposed CNTP has the potential to become one of the default choices for LLM decoding. Code is available at https://github.com/wyzjack/CNTP.

Autoregressive (AR) language models rely on causal tokenization, but extending this paradigm to vision remains non-trivial. Current visual tokenizers either flatten 2D patches into non-causal sequences or enforce heuristic orderings that misalign with the "next-token prediction" pattern. Recent diffusion autoencoders similarly fall short: conditioning the decoder on all tokens lacks causality, while applying nested dropout mechanism introduces imbalance. To address these challenges, we present CaTok, a 1D causal image tokenizer with a MeanFlow decoder. By selecting tokens over time intervals and binding them to the MeanFlow objective, as illustrated in Fig. 1, CaTok learns causal 1D representations that support both fast one-step generation and high-fidelity multi-step sampling, while naturally capturing diverse visual concepts across token intervals. To further stabilize and accelerate training, we propose a straightforward regularization REPA-A, which aligns encoder features with Vision Foundation Models (VFMs). Experiments demonstrate that CaTok achieves state-of-the-art results on ImageNet reconstruction, reaching 0.75 FID, 22.53 PSNR and 0.674 SSIM with fewer training epochs, and the AR model attains performance comparable to leading approaches.

Reinforcement learning (RL) has emerged as a key paradigm for aligning and optimizing large language models (LLMs). Standard approaches treat the LLM as the policy and apply RL directly over the full vocabulary space. However, this formulation includes the massive tail of contextually irrelevant tokens in the action space, which could distract the policy from focusing on decision-making among the truly reasonable tokens. In this work, we verify that valid reasoning paths could inherently concentrate within a low-rank subspace. Based on this insight, we introduce Reinforcement Learning with Promising Tokens (RLPT), a framework that mitigates the action space issue by decoupling strategic decision-making from token generation. Specifically, RLPT leverages the semantic priors of the base model to identify a dynamic set of promising tokens and constrains policy optimization exclusively to this refined subset via masking. Theoretical analysis and empirical results demonstrate that RLPT effectively reduces gradient variance, stabilizes the training process, and improves sample efficiency. Experiment results on math, coding, and telecom reasoning show that RLPT outperforms standard RL baselines and integrates effectively across various model sizes (4B and 8B) and RL algorithms (GRPO and DAPO).

Multi-token prediction (MTP) is a recently proposed pre-training objective for language models. Rather than predicting only the next token (NTP), MTP predicts the next k tokens at each prediction step, using multiple prediction heads. MTP has shown promise in improving downstream performance, inference speed, and training efficiency, particularly for large models. However, prior work has shown that smaller language models (SLMs) struggle with the MTP objective. To address this, we propose a curriculum learning strategy for MTP training, exploring two variants: a forward curriculum, which gradually increases the complexity of the pre-training objective from NTP to MTP, and a reverse curriculum, which does the opposite. Our experiments show that the forward curriculum enables SLMs to better leverage the MTP objective during pre-training, improving downstream NTP performance and generative output quality, while retaining the benefits of self-speculative decoding. The reverse curriculum achieves stronger NTP performance and output quality, but fails to provide any self-speculative decoding benefits.

Next token prediction is the fundamental principle for training large language models (LLMs), and reinforcement learning (RL) further enhances their reasoning performance. As an effective way to model language, image, video, and other modalities, the use of LLMs for end-to-end extraction of structured visual representations, such as scene graphs, remains underexplored. It requires the model to accurately produce a set of objects and relationship triplets, rather than generating text token by token. To achieve this, we introduce R1-SGG, a multimodal LLM (M-LLM) initially trained via supervised fine-tuning (SFT) on the scene graph dataset and subsequently refined using reinforcement learning to enhance its ability to generate scene graphs in an end-to-end manner. The SFT follows a conventional prompt-response paradigm, while RL requires the design of effective reward signals. Given the structured nature of scene graphs, we design a graph-centric reward function that integrates node-level rewards, edge-level rewards, and a format consistency reward. Our experiments demonstrate that rule-based RL substantially enhances model performance in the SGG task, achieving a zero failure rate--unlike supervised fine-tuning (SFT), which struggles to generalize effectively. Our code is available at https://github.com/gpt4vision/R1-SGG.

AI research often requires decisions before future evidence exists: which bottleneck to attack, which direction to pursue, or where a project should be positioned. We introduce ForeSci, a temporally controlled benchmark for evaluating whether LLM agents can make such forward-looking research judgements from historical evidence. ForeSci contains 500 tasks across four fast-moving AI domains and four decision families. Each task is paired with a cutoff-aligned offline knowledge base; post-cutoff papers are hidden during generation and used only for validation. To avoid random future-event prediction, tasks are derived from pre-cutoff taxonomy branches and evidence signals, and answer-generation backbones are selected to precede the task cutoffs. We evaluate native LLMs, Hybrid RAG, and three research-agent adaptations across four backbones. Results show that explicit evidence organization improves traceability and factual support, but gains depend strongly on the decision family. Diagnostics reveal a recurring evidence-decision decoupling: agents may cite relevant evidence while forecasting the wrong research object. ForeSci turns forward-looking AI research judgement into a controlled benchmark for evaluating research agents as decision-making systems.

We present TokenVerse -- a method for multi-concept personalization, leveraging a pre-trained text-to-image diffusion model. Our framework can disentangle complex visual elements and attributes from as little as a single image, while enabling seamless plug-and-play generation of combinations of concepts extracted from multiple images. As opposed to existing works, TokenVerse can handle multiple images with multiple concepts each, and supports a wide-range of concepts, including objects, accessories, materials, pose, and lighting. Our work exploits a DiT-based text-to-image model, in which the input text affects the generation through both attention and modulation (shift and scale). We observe that the modulation space is semantic and enables localized control over complex concepts. Building on this insight, we devise an optimization-based framework that takes as input an image and a text description, and finds for each word a distinct direction in the modulation space. These directions can then be used to generate new images that combine the learned concepts in a desired configuration. We demonstrate the effectiveness of TokenVerse in challenging personalization settings, and showcase its advantages over existing methods. project's webpage in https://token-verse.github.io/

Generative recommender systems have recently attracted attention by formulating next-item prediction as an autoregressive sequence generation task. However, most existing methods optimize standard next-token likelihood and implicitly treat all tokens as equally informative, which is misaligned with semantic-ID-based generation. Accordingly, we propose two complementary information-gain-based token-weighting strategies tailored to generative recommendation with semantic IDs. Front-Greater Weighting captures conditional semantic information gain by prioritizing early tokens that most effectively reduce candidate-item uncertainty given their prefixes and encode coarse semantics. Frequency Weighting models marginal information gain under long-tailed item and token distributions, upweighting rare tokens to counteract popularity bias. Beyond individual strategies, we introduce a multi-target learning framework with curriculum learning that jointly optimizes the two token-weighted objectives alongside standard likelihood, enabling stable optimization and adaptive emphasis across training stages. Extensive experiments on benchmark datasets show that our method consistently outperforms strong baselines and existing token-weighting approaches, with improved robustness, strong generalization across different semantic-ID constructions, and substantial gains on both head and tail items. Code is available at https://github.com/CHIUWEINING/Token-Weighted-Multi-Target-Learning-for-Generative-Recommenders-with-Curriculum-Learning.

Truly proactive AI systems must anticipate what we will do next. This foresight demands far richer information than the sparse signals we type into our prompts -- it demands reasoning over the entire context of what we see and do. We formalize this as next action prediction (NAP): given a sequence of a user's multimodal interactions with a computer (screenshots, clicks, sensor data), predict that user's next action. Progress on this task requires both new data and modeling approaches. To scale data, we annotate longitudinal, naturalistic computer use with vision-language models. We release an open-source pipeline for performing this labeling on private infrastructure, and label over 360K actions across one month of continuous phone usage from 20 users, amounting to 1,800 hours of screen time. We then introduce LongNAP, a user model that combines parametric and in-context learning to reason over long interaction histories. LongNAP is trained via policy gradient methods to generate user-specific reasoning traces given some context; retrieve relevant traces from a library of past traces; and then apply retrieved traces in-context to predict future actions. Using an LLM-as-judge evaluation metric (0-1 similarity to ground truth), LongNAP significantly outperforms supervised finetuning and prompted baselines on held-out data (by 79% and 39% respectively). Additionally, LongNAP generalizes to held out users when trained across individuals. The space of next actions a user might take at any moment is unbounded, spanning thousands of possible outcomes. Despite this, 17.1% of LongNAP's predicted trajectories are well-aligned with what a user does next (LLM-judge score geq 0.5). This rises to 26% when we filter to highly confident predictions. In sum, we argue that learning from the full context of user behavior to anticipate user needs is now a viable task with substantial opportunity.

Accelerating the inference of large language models (LLMs) is a critical challenge in generative AI. Speculative decoding (SD) methods offer substantial efficiency gains by generating multiple tokens using a single target forward pass. However, existing SD approaches require the drafter and target models to share the same vocabulary, thus limiting the pool of possible drafters, often necessitating the training of a drafter from scratch. We present three new SD methods that remove this shared-vocabulary constraint. All three methods preserve the target distribution (i.e., they are lossless) and work with off-the-shelf models without requiring additional training or modifications. Empirically, on summarization, programming, and long-context tasks, our algorithms achieve significant speedups over standard autoregressive decoding. By enabling any off-the-shelf model to serve as drafter and requiring no retraining, this work substantially broadens the applicability of the SD framework in practice.

Future prediction is a complex task for LLM agents, requiring a high level of analytical thinking, information gathering, contextual understanding, and decision-making under uncertainty. Agents must not only gather and interpret vast amounts of dynamic information but also integrate diverse data sources, weigh uncertainties, and adapt predictions based on emerging trends, just as human experts do in fields like politics, economics, and finance. Despite its importance, no large-scale benchmark exists for evaluating agents on future prediction, largely due to challenges in handling real-time updates and retrieving timely, accurate answers. To address this, we introduce FutureX, a dynamic and live evaluation benchmark specifically designed for LLM agents performing future prediction tasks. FutureX is the largest and most diverse live benchmark for future prediction, supporting real-time daily updates and eliminating data contamination through an automated pipeline for question gathering and answer collection. We evaluate 25 LLM/agent models, including those with reasoning, search capabilities, and integration of external tools such as the open-source Deep Research Agent and closed-source Deep Research models. This comprehensive evaluation assesses agents' adaptive reasoning and performance in dynamic environments. Additionally, we provide in-depth analyses of agents' failure modes and performance pitfalls in future-oriented tasks, including the vulnerability to fake web pages and the temporal validity. Our goal is to establish a dynamic, contamination-free evaluation standard that drives the development of LLM agents capable of performing at the level of professional human analysts in complex reasoning and predictive thinking.

Semantic future prediction is important for autonomous systems navigating dynamic environments. This paper introduces FUTURIST, a method for multimodal future semantic prediction that uses a unified and efficient visual sequence transformer architecture. Our approach incorporates a multimodal masked visual modeling objective and a novel masking mechanism designed for multimodal training. This allows the model to effectively integrate visible information from various modalities, improving prediction accuracy. Additionally, we propose a VAE-free hierarchical tokenization process, which reduces computational complexity, streamlines the training pipeline, and enables end-to-end training with high-resolution, multimodal inputs. We validate FUTURIST on the Cityscapes dataset, demonstrating state-of-the-art performance in future semantic segmentation for both short- and mid-term forecasting. We provide the implementation code at https://github.com/Sta8is/FUTURIST .

Predicting the future is of great interest across many aspects of human activity. Businesses are interested in future trends, traders are interested in future stock prices, and companies are highly interested in future technological breakthroughs. While there are many automated systems for predicting future numerical data, such as weather, stock prices, and demand for products, there is relatively little work in automatically predicting textual data. Humans are interested in textual data predictions because it is a natural format for our consumption, and experts routinely make predictions in a textual format (Christensen et al., 2004; Tetlock & Gardner, 2015; Frick, 2015). However, there has been relatively little formalization of this general problem in the machine learning or natural language processing communities. To address this gap, we introduce the task of future language modeling: probabilistic modeling of texts in the future based on a temporal history of texts. To our knowledge, our work is the first work to formalize the task of predicting the future in this way. We show that it is indeed possible to build future language models that improve upon strong non-temporal language model baselines, opening the door to working on this important, and widely applicable problem.

We introduce NeuralProphet, a successor to Facebook Prophet, which set an industry standard for explainable, scalable, and user-friendly forecasting frameworks. With the proliferation of time series data, explainable forecasting remains a challenging task for business and operational decision making. Hybrid solutions are needed to bridge the gap between interpretable classical methods and scalable deep learning models. We view Prophet as a precursor to such a solution. However, Prophet lacks local context, which is essential for forecasting the near-term future and is challenging to extend due to its Stan backend. NeuralProphet is a hybrid forecasting framework based on PyTorch and trained with standard deep learning methods, making it easy for developers to extend the framework. Local context is introduced with auto-regression and covariate modules, which can be configured as classical linear regression or as Neural Networks. Otherwise, NeuralProphet retains the design philosophy of Prophet and provides the same basic model components. Our results demonstrate that NeuralProphet produces interpretable forecast components of equivalent or superior quality to Prophet on a set of generated time series. NeuralProphet outperforms Prophet on a diverse collection of real-world datasets. For short to medium-term forecasts, NeuralProphet improves forecast accuracy by 55 to 92 percent.

Multi-token prediction has emerged as a promising objective for improving language model pretraining, but its benefits have not consistently generalized to other settings such as fine-tuning. In this paper, we propose MuToR, a simple and effective approach to multi-token prediction that interleaves learnable register tokens into the input sequence, each tasked with predicting future targets. Compared to existing methods, MuToR offers several key advantages: it introduces only a negligible number of additional parameters, requires no architectural changes--ensuring compatibility with off-the-shelf pretrained language models--and remains aligned with the next-token pretraining objective, making it especially well-suited for supervised fine-tuning. Moreover, it naturally supports scalable prediction horizons. We demonstrate the effectiveness and versatility of MuToR across a range of use cases, including supervised fine-tuning, parameter-efficient fine-tuning (PEFT), and pretraining, on challenging generative tasks in both language and vision domains. Our code will be available at: https://github.com/nasosger/MuToR.

Executing language-conditioned tasks in dynamic visual environments remains a central challenge in embodied AI. Existing Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models predominantly adopt reactive state-to-action mappings, often leading to short-sighted behaviors and poor robustness in dynamic scenes. In this paper, we introduce F1, a pretrained VLA framework which integrates the visual foresight generation into decision-making pipeline. F1 adopts a Mixture-of-Transformer architecture with dedicated modules for perception, foresight generation, and control, thereby bridging understanding, generation, and actions. At its core, F1 employs a next-scale prediction mechanism to synthesize goal-conditioned visual foresight as explicit planning targets. By forecasting plausible future visual states, F1 reformulates action generation as a foresight-guided inverse dynamics problem, enabling actions that implicitly achieve visual goals. To endow F1 with robust and generalizable capabilities, we propose a three-stage training recipe on an extensive dataset comprising over 330k trajectories across 136 diverse tasks. This training scheme enhances modular reasoning and equips the model with transferable visual foresight, which is critical for complex and dynamic environments. Extensive evaluations on real-world tasks and simulation benchmarks demonstrate F1 consistently outperforms existing approaches, achieving substantial gains in both task success rate and generalization ability.

Improving time-to-first-token (TTFT) is an essentially important objective in modern large language model (LLM) inference engines. Optimizing TTFT directly results in higher maximal QPS and meets the requirements of many critical applications. However, boosting TTFT is notoriously challenging since it is compute-bounded and the performance bottleneck shifts from the self-attention that many prior works focus on to the MLP part. In this work, we present SpecPrefill, a training free framework that accelerates the inference TTFT for both long and medium context queries based on the following insight: LLMs are generalized enough to preserve the quality given only a carefully chosen subset of prompt tokens. At its core, SpecPrefill leverages a lightweight model to speculate locally important tokens based on the context. These tokens, along with the necessary positional information, are then sent to the main model for processing. We evaluate SpecPrefill with a diverse set of tasks, followed by a comprehensive benchmarking of performance improvement both in a real end-to-end setting and ablation studies. SpecPrefill manages to serve Llama-3.1-405B-Instruct-FP8 with up to 7times maximal end-to-end QPS on real downstream tasks and 7.66times TTFT improvement.

This technical report describes the design and training of novel speculative decoding draft models, for accelerating the inference speeds of large language models in a production environment. By conditioning draft predictions on both context vectors and sampled tokens, we can train our speculators to efficiently predict high-quality n-grams, which the base model then accepts or rejects. This allows us to effectively predict multiple tokens per inference forward pass, accelerating wall-clock inference speeds of highly optimized base model implementations by a factor of 2-3x. We explore these initial results and describe next steps for further improvements.

Autoregressive models have emerged as a powerful generative paradigm for visual generation. The current de-facto standard of next token prediction commonly operates over a single-scale sequence of dense image tokens, and is incapable of utilizing global context especially for early tokens prediction. In this paper, we introduce a new autoregressive design to model a hierarchy from a few low-resolution image tokens to the typical dense image tokens, and delve into a thorough hierarchical dependency across multi-scale image tokens. Technically, we present a Hierarchical Masked Autoregressive models (Hi-MAR) that pivot on low-resolution image tokens to trigger hierarchical autoregressive modeling in a multi-phase manner. Hi-MAR learns to predict a few image tokens in low resolution, functioning as intermediary pivots to reflect global structure, in the first phase. Such pivots act as the additional guidance to strengthen the next autoregressive modeling phase by shaping global structural awareness of typical dense image tokens. A new Diffusion Transformer head is further devised to amplify the global context among all tokens for mask token prediction. Extensive evaluations on both class-conditional and text-to-image generation tasks demonstrate that Hi-MAR outperforms typical AR baselines, while requiring fewer computational costs. Code is available at https://github.com/HiDream-ai/himar.

Autoregressive next-token prediction is a standard pretraining method for large-scale language models, but its application to vision tasks is hindered by the non-sequential nature of image data, leading to cumulative errors. Most vision models employ masked autoencoder (MAE) based pretraining, which faces scalability issues. To address these challenges, we introduce TokenUnify, a novel pretraining method that integrates random token prediction, next-token prediction, and next-all token prediction. We provide theoretical evidence demonstrating that TokenUnify mitigates cumulative errors in visual autoregression. Cooperated with TokenUnify, we have assembled a large-scale electron microscopy (EM) image dataset with ultra-high resolution, ideal for creating spatially correlated long sequences. This dataset includes over 120 million annotated voxels, making it the largest neuron segmentation dataset to date and providing a unified benchmark for experimental validation. Leveraging the Mamba network inherently suited for long-sequence modeling on this dataset, TokenUnify not only reduces the computational complexity but also leads to a significant 45\% improvement in segmentation performance on downstream EM neuron segmentation tasks compared to existing methods. Furthermore, TokenUnify demonstrates superior scalability over MAE and traditional autoregressive methods, effectively bridging the gap between pretraining strategies for language and vision models. Code is available at https://github.com/ydchen0806/TokenUnify.

Test-time scaling has emerged as an effective approach for improving language model performance by utilizing additional compute at inference time. Recent studies have shown that overriding end-of-thinking tokens (e.g., replacing "</think>" with "Wait") can extend reasoning steps and improve accuracy. In this work, we explore whether a dedicated continue-thinking token can be learned to trigger extended reasoning. We augment a distilled version of DeepSeek-R1 with a single learned "<|continue-thinking|>" token, training only its embedding via reinforcement learning while keeping the model weights frozen. Our experiments show that this learned token achieves improved accuracy on standard math benchmarks compared to both the baseline model and a test-time scaling approach that uses a fixed token (e.g., "Wait") for budget forcing. In particular, we observe that in cases where the fixed-token approach enhances the base model's accuracy, our method achieves a markedly greater improvement. For example, on the GSM8K benchmark, the fixed-token approach yields a 1.3% absolute improvement in accuracy, whereas our learned-token method achieves a 4.2% improvement over the base model that does not use budget forcing.

Recent advancements in vision-language models (VLMs) have improved performance by increasing the number of visual tokens, which are often significantly longer than text tokens. However, we observe that most real-world scenarios do not require such an extensive number of visual tokens. While the performance drops significantly in a small subset of OCR-related tasks, models still perform accurately in most other general VQA tasks with only 1/4 resolution. Therefore, we propose to dynamically process distinct samples with different resolutions, and present a new paradigm for visual token compression, namely, VisionThink. It starts with a downsampled image and smartly decides whether it is sufficient for problem solving. Otherwise, the model could output a special token to request the higher-resolution image. Compared to existing Efficient VLM methods that compress tokens using fixed pruning ratios or thresholds, VisionThink autonomously decides whether to compress tokens case by case. As a result, it demonstrates strong fine-grained visual understanding capability on OCR-related tasks, and meanwhile saves substantial visual tokens on simpler tasks. We adopt reinforcement learning and propose the LLM-as-Judge strategy to successfully apply RL to general VQA tasks. Moreover, we carefully design a reward function and penalty mechanism to achieve a stable and reasonable image resize call ratio. Extensive experiments demonstrate the superiority, efficiency, and effectiveness of our method. Our code is available at https://github.com/dvlab-research/VisionThink.

We address the challenge of efficient auto-regressive generation in sequence prediction models by introducing FutureFill - a method for fast generation that applies to any sequence prediction algorithm based on convolutional operators. Our approach reduces the generation time requirement from quadratic to quasilinear relative to the context length. Additionally, FutureFill requires a prefill cache sized only by the number of tokens generated, which is smaller than the cache requirements for standard convolutional and attention-based models. We validate our theoretical findings with experimental evidence demonstrating correctness and efficiency gains in a synthetic generation task.

We present a preview version of DeepSeek-V4 series, including two strong Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) language models -- DeepSeek-V4-Pro with 1.6T parameters (49B activated) and DeepSeek-V4-Flash with 284B parameters (13B activated) -- both supporting a context length of one million tokens. DeepSeek-V4 series incorporate several key upgrades in architecture and optimization: (1) a hybrid attention architecture that combines Compressed Sparse Attention (CSA) and Heavily Compressed Attention (HCA) to improve long-context efficiency; (2) Manifold-Constrained Hyper-Connections (mHC) that enhance conventional residual connections; (3) and the Muon optimizer for faster convergence and greater training stability. We pre-train both models on more than 32T diverse and high-quality tokens, followed by a comprehensive post-training pipeline that unlocks and further enhances their capabilities. DeepSeek-V4-Pro-Max, the maximum reasoning effort mode of DeepSeek-V4-Pro, redefines the state-of-the-art for open models, outperforming its predecessors in core tasks. Meanwhile, DeepSeek-V4 series are highly efficient in long-context scenarios. In the one-million-token context setting, DeepSeek-V4-Pro requires only 27% of single-token inference FLOPs and 10% of KV cache compared with DeepSeek-V3.2. This enables us to routinely support one-million-token contexts, thereby making long-horizon tasks and further test-time scaling more feasible. The model checkpoints are available at https://huggingface.co/collections/deepseek-ai/deepseek-v4.

Multi-Token Prediction (MTP) has been proposed as an auxiliary objective to improve next-token prediction (NTP) in language model training but shows inconsistent improvements, underperforming in standard NLP benchmarks. We argue that MTP's exact future token prediction is too difficult as an auxiliary loss. Instead, we propose Token Order Prediction (TOP), which trains models to order upcoming tokens by their proximity using a learning-to-rank loss. TOP requires only a single additional unembedding layer compared to MTP's multiple transformer layers. We pretrain models of 340M, 1.8B, and 7B parameters using NTP, MTP, and TOP objectives. Results on eight standard NLP benchmarks show that TOP overall outperforms both NTP and MTP even at scale. Our code is available at https://github.com/zaydzuhri/token-order-prediction

Inference-time optimization scales computation to derive deliberate reasoning steps for effective performance. While previous search-based strategies address the short-sightedness of auto-regressive generation, the vast search space leads to excessive exploration and insufficient exploitation. To strike an efficient balance to derive the optimal step, we frame the decoding strategy as foresight sampling, leveraging simulated future steps to obtain globally optimal step estimation. Built on it, we propose a novel decoding strategy, named phi-Decoding. To provide a precise and expressive estimation of step value, phi-Decoding approximates two distributions via foresight and clustering. Sampling from the joint distribution, the optimal steps can be selected for exploitation. To support adaptive computation allocation, we propose in-width and in-depth pruning strategies, featuring a light-weight solution to achieve inference efficiency. Extensive experiments across seven benchmarks show phi-Decoding outperforms strong baselines in both performance and efficiency. Additional analysis demonstrates its generalization across various LLMs and scalability across a wide range of computing budgets. The code will be released at https://github.com/xufangzhi/phi-Decoding, and the open-source PyPI package is coming soon.

Visual autoregressive models typically adhere to a raster-order ``next-token prediction" paradigm, which overlooks the spatial and temporal locality inherent in visual content. Specifically, visual tokens exhibit significantly stronger correlations with their spatially or temporally adjacent tokens compared to those that are distant. In this paper, we propose Neighboring Autoregressive Modeling (NAR), a novel paradigm that formulates autoregressive visual generation as a progressive outpainting procedure, following a near-to-far ``next-neighbor prediction" mechanism. Starting from an initial token, the remaining tokens are decoded in ascending order of their Manhattan distance from the initial token in the spatial-temporal space, progressively expanding the boundary of the decoded region. To enable parallel prediction of multiple adjacent tokens in the spatial-temporal space, we introduce a set of dimension-oriented decoding heads, each predicting the next token along a mutually orthogonal dimension. During inference, all tokens adjacent to the decoded tokens are processed in parallel, substantially reducing the model forward steps for generation. Experiments on ImageNet256times 256 and UCF101 demonstrate that NAR achieves 2.4times and 8.6times higher throughput respectively, while obtaining superior FID/FVD scores for both image and video generation tasks compared to the PAR-4X approach. When evaluating on text-to-image generation benchmark GenEval, NAR with 0.8B parameters outperforms Chameleon-7B while using merely 0.4 of the training data. Code is available at https://github.com/ThisisBillhe/NAR.

Fine tuning has been regarded as a de facto approach for adapting large language models (LLMs) to downstream tasks, but the high training memory consumption inherited from LLMs makes this process inefficient. Among existing memory efficient approaches, activation-related optimization has proven particularly effective, as activations consistently dominate overall memory consumption. Although prior arts offer various activation optimization strategies, their data-agnostic nature ultimately results in ineffective and unstable fine tuning. In this paper, we propose TokenSeek, a universal plugin solution for various transformer-based models through instance-aware token seeking and ditching, achieving significant fine-tuning memory savings (e.g., requiring only 14.8% of the memory on Llama3.2 1B) with on-par or even better performance. Furthermore, our interpretable token seeking process reveals the underlying reasons for its effectiveness, offering valuable insights for future research on token efficiency. Homepage: https://runjia.tech/iclr_tokenseek/

Cross-domain generalization is very important in Time Series Forecasting because similar historical information may lead to distinct future trends due to the domain-specific characteristics. Recent works focus on building unimodal time series foundation models and end-to-end multimodal supervised models. Since domain-specific knowledge is often contained in modalities like texts, the former lacks the explicit utilization of them, thus hindering the performance. The latter is tailored for end-to-end scenarios and does not support zero-shot inference for cross-domain scenarios. In this work, we introduce Aurora, a Multimodal Time Series Foundation Model, which supports multimodal inputs and zero-shot inference. Pretrained on Corss-domain Multimodal Time Series Corpus, Aurora can adaptively extract and focus on key domain knowledge contained in corrsponding text or image modalities, thus possessing strong Cross-domain generalization capability. Through tokenization, encoding, and distillation, Aurora can extract multimodal domain knowledge as guidance and then utilizes a Modality-Guided Multi-head Self-Attention to inject them into the modeling of temporal representations. In the decoding phase, the multimodal representations are used to generate the conditions and prototypes of future tokens, contributing to a novel Prototype-Guided Flow Matching for generative probabilistic forecasting. Comprehensive experiments on well-recognized benchmarks, including TimeMMD, TSFM-Bench and ProbTS, demonstrate the consistent state-of-the-art performance of Aurora on both unimodal and multimodal scenarios.

Visual Autoregressive (VAR) modeling has gained popularity for its shift towards next-scale prediction. However, existing VAR paradigms process the entire token map at each scale step, leading to the complexity and runtime scaling dramatically with image resolution. To address this challenge, we propose FastVAR, a post-training acceleration method for efficient resolution scaling with VARs. Our key finding is that the majority of latency arises from the large-scale step where most tokens have already converged. Leveraging this observation, we develop the cached token pruning strategy that only forwards pivotal tokens for scale-specific modeling while using cached tokens from previous scale steps to restore the pruned slots. This significantly reduces the number of forwarded tokens and improves the efficiency at larger resolutions. Experiments show the proposed FastVAR can further speedup FlashAttention-accelerated VAR by 2.7times with negligible performance drop of <1%. We further extend FastVAR to zero-shot generation of higher resolution images. In particular, FastVAR can generate one 2K image with 15GB memory footprints in 1.5s on a single NVIDIA 3090 GPU. Code is available at https://github.com/csguoh/FastVAR.

Large language models (LLMs) excel at processing information reactively but lack the ability to systemically explore hypothetical futures. They cannot ask, "what if we take this action? how will it affect the final outcome" and forecast its potential consequences before acting. This critical gap limits their utility in dynamic, high-stakes scenarios like strategic planning, risk assessment, and real-time decision making. To bridge this gap, we propose WiA-LLM, a new paradigm that equips LLMs with proactive thinking capabilities. Our approach integrates What-If Analysis (WIA), a systematic approach for evaluating hypothetical scenarios by changing input variables. By leveraging environmental feedback via reinforcement learning, WiA-LLM moves beyond reactive thinking. It dynamically simulates the outcomes of each potential action, enabling the model to anticipate future states rather than merely react to the present conditions. We validate WiA-LLM in Honor of Kings (HoK), a complex multiplayer game environment characterized by rapid state changes and intricate interactions. The game's real-time state changes require precise multi-step consequence prediction, making it an ideal testbed for our approach. Experimental results demonstrate WiA-LLM achieves a remarkable 74.2% accuracy in forecasting game-state changes (up to two times gain over baselines). The model shows particularly significant gains in high-difficulty scenarios where accurate foresight is critical. To our knowledge, this is the first work to formally explore and integrate what-if analysis capabilities within LLMs. WiA-LLM represents a fundamental advance toward proactive reasoning in LLMs, providing a scalable framework for robust decision-making in dynamic environments with broad implications for strategic applications.

By encoding time series as a string of numerical digits, we can frame time series forecasting as next-token prediction in text. Developing this approach, we find that large language models (LLMs) such as GPT-3 and LLaMA-2 can surprisingly zero-shot extrapolate time series at a level comparable to or exceeding the performance of purpose-built time series models trained on the downstream tasks. To facilitate this performance, we propose procedures for effectively tokenizing time series data and converting discrete distributions over tokens into highly flexible densities over continuous values. We argue the success of LLMs for time series stems from their ability to naturally represent multimodal distributions, in conjunction with biases for simplicity, and repetition, which align with the salient features in many time series, such as repeated seasonal trends. We also show how LLMs can naturally handle missing data without imputation through non-numerical text, accommodate textual side information, and answer questions to help explain predictions. While we find that increasing model size generally improves performance on time series, we show GPT-4 can perform worse than GPT-3 because of how it tokenizes numbers, and poor uncertainty calibration, which is likely the result of alignment interventions such as RLHF.

Large language models have shown impressive capabilities across a variety of NLP tasks, yet their generating text autoregressively is time-consuming. One way to speed them up is speculative decoding, which generates candidate segments (a sequence of tokens) from a fast draft model that is then verified in parallel by the target model. However, the acceptance rate of candidate tokens receives limitations from several factors, such as the model, the dataset, and the decoding setup. This paper proposes sampling multiple candidates from a draft model and then organising them in batches for verification. We design algorithms for efficient multi-candidate verification while maintaining the distribution of the target model. Our approach shows significant improvements in acceptance rates on multiple datasets and models, consistently outperforming standard speculative decoding.

We present Neural Attention Search (NAtS), a framework that automatically evaluates the importance of each token within a sequence and determines if the corresponding token can be dropped after several steps. This approach can efficiently reduce the KV cache sizes required by transformer-based models during inference and thus reduce inference costs. In this paper, we design a search space that contains three token types: (i) Global Tokens will be preserved and queried by all the following tokens. (ii) Local Tokens survive until the next global token appears. (iii) Sliding Window Tokens have an impact on the inference of a fixed size of the next following tokens. Similar to the One-Shot Neural Architecture Search approach, this token-type information can be learned jointly with the architecture weights via a learnable attention mask. Experiments on both training a new transformer from scratch and fine-tuning existing large language models show that NAtS can efficiently reduce the KV cache size required for the models while maintaining the models' performance.

Forecasting multiple future events within a given time horizon is essential for applications in finance, retail, social networks, and healthcare. Marked Temporal Point Processes (MTPP) provide a principled framework to model both the timing and labels of events. However, most existing research focuses on predicting only the next event, leaving long-horizon forecasting largely underexplored. To address this gap, we introduce HoTPP, the first benchmark specifically designed to rigorously evaluate long-horizon predictions. We identify shortcomings in widely used evaluation metrics, propose a theoretically grounded T-mAP metric, present strong statistical baselines, and offer efficient implementations of popular models. Our empirical results demonstrate that modern MTPP approaches often underperform simple statistical baselines. Furthermore, we analyze the diversity of predicted sequences and find that most methods exhibit mode collapse. Finally, we analyze the impact of autoregression and intensity-based losses on prediction quality, and outline promising directions for future research. The HoTPP source code, hyperparameters, and full evaluation results are available at GitHub.

Long-horizon tasks are common in real-world robotic deployments, yet failure detection for such tasks remains underexplored. Detecting failures in long-horizon robotic tasks is particularly challenging because failure onset is often ambiguous and dense temporal annotations are typically unavailable. We present Foresight, a failure detection framework that monitors manipulation trajectories using latent representations from an action-conditioned world model. Foresight is trained using only final task-level success or failure labels. By leveraging predictive world-model embeddings, our method provides a unified framework for failure detection across different policies. We further use functional conformal prediction (FCP) to calibrate detection thresholds adaptively. We evaluate Foresight with state-of-the-art vision-language-action policies in simulation on LIBERO-Long, ManiSkill-Long, and BEHAVIOR-1K, compare it against state-of-the-artfailure detection methods, and validate it on real robots with three long-horizon tasks on a ReactorX-200 arm and one task on a Franka arm. Our results suggest that action-conditioned world-model embeddings provide a scalable representation for reliable failure monitoring in long-horizon manipulation.

High-stakes decision making involves reasoning under uncertainty about the future. In this work, we train language models to make predictions on open-ended forecasting questions. To scale up training data, we synthesize novel forecasting questions from global events reported in daily news, using a fully automated, careful curation recipe. We train the Qwen3 thinking models on our dataset, OpenForesight. To prevent leakage of future information during training and evaluation, we use an offline news corpus, both for data generation and retrieval in our forecasting system. Guided by a small validation set, we show the benefits of retrieval, and an improved reward function for reinforcement learning (RL). Once we obtain our final forecasting system, we perform held-out testing between May to August 2025. Our specialized model, OpenForecaster 8B, matches much larger proprietary models, with our training improving the accuracy, calibration, and consistency of predictions. We find calibration improvements from forecasting training generalize across popular benchmarks. We open-source all our models, code, and data to make research on language model forecasting broadly accessible.

Large reasoning models (LRMs), such as OpenAI's o1 and DeepSeek-R1, harness test-time scaling to perform multi-step reasoning for complex problem-solving. This reasoning process, executed before producing final answers, is often guided by special juncture tokens or textual segments that prompt self-evaluative reflection. We refer to these transition markers and reflective cues as "reflection tokens" (e.g., "wait", "but", "alternatively"). In this work, we treat reflection tokens as a "resource" and introduce the problem of resource allocation, aimed at improving the test-time compute performance of LRMs by adaptively regulating the frequency and placement of reflection tokens. Through empirical analysis, we show that both excessive and insufficient use of reflection tokens, referred to as over-reflection and under-reflection, can degrade model performance. To better understand and manage this trade-off, we draw an analogy between reflection token usage and learning rate scheduling in optimization. Building on this insight, we propose cyclical reflection token scheduling (termed CyclicReflex), a decoding strategy that dynamically modulates reflection token logits using a position-dependent triangular waveform. Experiments on MATH500, AIME2024/2025, and AMC2023 demonstrate that CyclicReflex consistently improves performance across model sizes (1.5B-8B), outperforming standard decoding and more recent approaches such as TIP (thought switching penalty) and S1. Codes are available at https://github.com/OPTML-Group/CyclicReflex.

Accurate prediction of future prices of stocks is a difficult task to perform. Even more challenging is to design an optimized portfolio with weights allocated to the stocks in a way that optimizes its return and the risk. This paper presents a systematic approach towards building two types of portfolios, optimum risk, and eigen, for four critical economic sectors of India. The prices of the stocks are extracted from the web from Jan 1, 2016, to Dec 31, 2020. Sector-wise portfolios are built based on their ten most significant stocks. An LSTM model is also designed for predicting future stock prices. Six months after the construction of the portfolios, i.e., on Jul 1, 2021, the actual returns and the LSTM-predicted returns for the portfolios are computed. A comparison of the predicted and the actual returns indicate a high accuracy level of the LSTM model.

We present Timer-XL, a generative Transformer for unified time series forecasting. To uniformly predict 1D and 2D time series, we generalize next token prediction, predominantly adopted for causal generation of 1D sequences, to multivariate next token prediction. The proposed paradigm uniformly formulates various forecasting scenarios as a long-context generation problem. We opt for the generative Transformer, which can capture global-range and causal dependencies while providing contextual flexibility, to implement unified forecasting on univariate series characterized by non-stationarity, multivariate time series with complicated dynamics and correlations, and covariate-informed contexts that include both endogenous and exogenous variables. Technically, we propose a universal TimeAttention to facilitate generative Transformers on time series, which can effectively capture fine-grained intra- and inter-series dependencies of flattened time series tokens (patches) and is further strengthened by position embeddings in both temporal and variable dimensions. Timer-XL achieves state-of-the-art performance across challenging forecasting benchmarks through a unified approach. As a large time series model, it demonstrates notable model transferability by large-scale pre-training, as well as contextual flexibility in token lengths, positioning it as a one-for-all forecaster.

Numerous efforts have been made to extend the ``next token prediction'' paradigm to visual contents, aiming to create a unified approach for both image generation and understanding. Nevertheless, attempts to generate images through autoregressive modeling with discrete tokens have been plagued by issues such as low visual fidelity, distorted outputs, and failure to adhere to complex instructions when rendering intricate details. These shortcomings are likely attributed to cumulative errors during autoregressive inference or information loss incurred during the discretization process. Probably due to this challenge, recent research has increasingly shifted toward jointly training image generation with diffusion objectives and language generation with autoregressive objectives, moving away from unified modeling approaches. In this work, we demonstrate that reinforcement learning can effectively mitigate artifacts and largely enhance the generation quality of a discrete autoregressive modeling method, thereby enabling seamless integration of image and language generation. Our framework comprises a semantic image tokenizer, a unified autoregressive model for both language and images, and an offline diffusion decoder for image generation, termed X-Omni. X-Omni achieves state-of-the-art performance in image generation tasks using a 7B language model, producing images with high aesthetic quality while exhibiting strong capabilities in following instructions and rendering long texts.

Thinking about the future is one of the important activities that people do in daily life. Futurists also pay a lot of effort into figuring out possible scenarios for the future. We argue that the exploration of this direction is still in an early stage in the NLP research. To this end, we propose three argument generation tasks in the financial application scenario. Our experimental results show these tasks are still big challenges for representative generation models. Based on our empirical results, we further point out several unresolved issues and challenges in this research direction.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have exhibited remarkable performance on reasoning tasks. They utilize autoregressive token generation to construct reasoning trajectories, enabling the development of a coherent chain of thought. In this work, we explore the impact of individual tokens on the final outcomes of reasoning tasks. We identify the existence of ``critical tokens'' that lead to incorrect reasoning trajectories in LLMs. Specifically, we find that LLMs tend to produce positive outcomes when forced to decode other tokens instead of critical tokens. Motivated by this observation, we propose a novel approach - cDPO - designed to automatically recognize and conduct token-level rewards for the critical tokens during the alignment process. Specifically, we develop a contrastive estimation approach to automatically identify critical tokens. It is achieved by comparing the generation likelihood of positive and negative models. To achieve this, we separately fine-tune the positive and negative models on various reasoning trajectories, consequently, they are capable of identifying identify critical tokens within incorrect trajectories that contribute to erroneous outcomes. Moreover, to further align the model with the critical token information during the alignment process, we extend the conventional DPO algorithms to token-level DPO and utilize the differential likelihood from the aforementioned positive and negative model as important weight for token-level DPO learning.Experimental results on GSM8K and MATH500 benchmarks with two-widely used models Llama-3 (8B and 70B) and deepseek-math (7B) demonstrate the effectiveness of the propsoed approach cDPO.

We present SEED, an elaborate image tokenizer that empowers Large Language Models (LLMs) with the emergent ability to SEE and Draw at the same time. Research on image tokenizers has previously reached an impasse, as frameworks employing quantized visual tokens have lost prominence due to subpar performance and convergence in multimodal comprehension (compared to BLIP-2, etc.) or generation (compared to Stable Diffusion, etc.). Despite the limitations, we remain confident in its natural capacity to unify visual and textual representations, facilitating scalable multimodal training with LLM's original recipe. In this study, we identify two crucial principles for the architecture and training of SEED that effectively ease subsequent alignment with LLMs. (1) Image tokens should be independent of 2D physical patch positions and instead be produced with a 1D causal dependency, exhibiting intrinsic interdependence that aligns with the left-to-right autoregressive prediction mechanism in LLMs. (2) Image tokens should capture high-level semantics consistent with the degree of semantic abstraction in words, and be optimized for both discriminativeness and reconstruction during the tokenizer training phase. As a result, the off-the-shelf LLM is able to perform both image-to-text and text-to-image generation by incorporating our SEED through efficient LoRA tuning. Comprehensive multimodal pretraining and instruction tuning, which may yield improved results, are reserved for future investigation. This version of SEED was trained in 5.7 days using only 64 V100 GPUs and 5M publicly available image-text pairs. Our preliminary study emphasizes the great potential of discrete visual tokens in versatile multimodal LLMs and the importance of proper image tokenizers in broader research.

Vision tokens in multimodal large language models often dominate huge computational overhead due to their excessive length compared to linguistic modality. Abundant recent methods aim to solve this problem with token pruning, which first defines an importance criterion for tokens and then prunes the unimportant vision tokens during inference. However, in this paper, we show that the importance is not an ideal indicator to decide whether a token should be pruned. Surprisingly, it usually results in inferior performance than random token pruning and leading to incompatibility to efficient attention computation operators.Instead, we propose DART (Duplication-Aware Reduction of Tokens), which prunes tokens based on its duplication with other tokens, leading to significant and training-free acceleration. Concretely, DART selects a small subset of pivot tokens and then retains the tokens with low duplication to the pivots, ensuring minimal information loss during token pruning. Experiments demonstrate that DART can prune 88.9% vision tokens while maintaining comparable performance, leading to a 1.99times and 2.99times speed-up in total time and prefilling stage, respectively, with good compatibility to efficient attention operators. Our codes are available at https://github.com/ZichenWen1/DART.

The deployment of Large Language Models (LLMs) faces a critical bottleneck when handling lengthy inputs: the prohibitive memory footprint of the Key Value (KV) cache. To address this bottleneck, the token pruning paradigm leverages attention sparsity to selectively retain a small, critical subset of tokens. However, existing approaches fall short, with static methods risking irreversible information loss and dynamic strategies employing heuristics that insufficiently capture the query-dependent nature of token importance. We propose FASA, a novel framework that achieves query-aware token eviction by dynamically predicting token importance. FASA stems from a novel insight into RoPE: the discovery of functional sparsity at the frequency-chunk (FC) level. Our key finding is that a small, identifiable subset of "dominant" FCs consistently exhibits high contextual agreement with the full attention head. This provides a robust and computationally free proxy for identifying salient tokens. %making them a powerful and efficient proxy for token importance. Building on this insight, FASA first identifies a critical set of tokens using dominant FCs, and then performs focused attention computation solely on this pruned subset. % Since accessing only a small fraction of the KV cache, FASA drastically lowers memory bandwidth requirements and computational cost. Across a spectrum of long-context tasks, from sequence modeling to complex CoT reasoning, FASA consistently outperforms all token-eviction baselines and achieves near-oracle accuracy, demonstrating remarkable robustness even under constraint budgets. Notably, on LongBench-V1, FASA reaches nearly 100\% of full-KV performance when only keeping 256 tokens, and achieves 2.56times speedup using just 18.9\% of the cache on AIME24.

Vision Transformers (ViTs) have emerged as powerful models in the field of computer vision, delivering superior performance across various vision tasks. However, the high computational complexity poses a significant barrier to their practical applications in real-world scenarios. Motivated by the fact that not all tokens contribute equally to the final predictions and fewer tokens bring less computational cost, reducing redundant tokens has become a prevailing paradigm for accelerating vision transformers. However, we argue that it is not optimal to either only reduce inattentive redundancy by token pruning, or only reduce duplicative redundancy by token merging. To this end, in this paper we propose a novel acceleration framework, namely token Pruning & Pooling Transformers (PPT), to adaptively tackle these two types of redundancy in different layers. By heuristically integrating both token pruning and token pooling techniques in ViTs without additional trainable parameters, PPT effectively reduces the model complexity while maintaining its predictive accuracy. For example, PPT reduces over 37% FLOPs and improves the throughput by over 45% for DeiT-S without any accuracy drop on the ImageNet dataset. The code is available at https://github.com/xjwu1024/PPT and https://github.com/mindspore-lab/models/

Large language models such as GPT and Llama are trained with a next-token prediction loss. In this work, we suggest that training language models to predict multiple future tokens at once results in higher sample efficiency. More specifically, at each position in the training corpus, we ask the model to predict the following n tokens using n independent output heads, operating on top of a shared model trunk. Considering multi-token prediction as an auxiliary training task, we measure improved downstream capabilities with no overhead in training time for both code and natural language models. The method is increasingly useful for larger model sizes, and keeps its appeal when training for multiple epochs. Gains are especially pronounced on generative benchmarks like coding, where our models consistently outperform strong baselines by several percentage points. Our 13B parameter models solves 12 % more problems on HumanEval and 17 % more on MBPP than comparable next-token models. Experiments on small algorithmic tasks demonstrate that multi-token prediction is favorable for the development of induction heads and algorithmic reasoning capabilities. As an additional benefit, models trained with 4-token prediction are up to 3 times faster at inference, even with large batch sizes.

Deployment of autoregressive large language models (LLMs) is costly, and as these models increase in size, the associated costs will become even more considerable. Consequently, different methods have been proposed to accelerate the token generation process and reduce costs. Speculative decoding (SD) is among the most promising approaches to speed up the LLM decoding process by verifying multiple tokens in parallel and using an auxiliary smaller draft model to generate the possible tokens. In SD, usually, one draft model is used to serve a specific target model; however, in practice, LLMs are diverse, and we might need to deal with many target models or more than one target model simultaneously. In this scenario, it is not clear which draft model should be used for which target model, and searching among different draft models or training customized draft models can further increase deployment costs. In this paper, we first introduce a novel multi-target scenario for the deployment of draft models for faster inference. Then, we present a novel, more efficient sorted speculative decoding mechanism that outperforms regular baselines in multi-target settings. We evaluated our method on Spec-Bench in different settings, including base models such as Vicuna 7B, 13B, and LLama Chat 70B. Our results suggest that our draft models perform better than baselines for multiple target models at the same time.

The fervor for Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs) attracted countless creators, leading to a Big Bang of digital assets driven by latent or explicit forms of inspiration, as in many creative processes. This work exploits Vision Transformers and graph-based modeling to delve into visual inspiration phenomena between NFTs over the years. Our goals include unveiling the main structural traits that shape visual inspiration networks, exploring the interrelation between visual inspiration and asset performances, investigating crypto influence on inspiration processes, and explaining the inspiration relationships among NFTs. Our findings unveil how the pervasiveness of inspiration led to a temporary saturation of the visual feature space, the impact of the dichotomy between inspiring and inspired NFTs on their financial performance, and an intrinsic self-regulatory mechanism between markets and inspiration waves. Our work can serve as a starting point for gaining a broader view of the evolution of Web3.

We propose an acceleration scheme for large language models (LLMs) through Speculative Decoding with Semantic Adaptive Tokens (SDSAT). The primary objective of this design is to enhance the LLM model's ability to generate draft tokens more accurately without compromising the model's accuracy. The core strategies involve: 1) Fine-tune the model by incorporating semantic adaptive tokens that possess flexible decoding capabilities without changing its structure, allowing them to generate high-quality draft tokens. 2) By employing a training method that does not affect the standard tokens, the model can acquire parallel decoding abilities atop its original framework with minimal training overhead. 3) We have designed the "two-step-draft-then-verify" generation strategies using both greedy search and nucleus sampling. Experiments conducted on the CodeLlama-13B and 7B models have yielded speed increases of over 3.5X and 3.0X, respectively. Please refer to https://github.com/hasuoshenyun/SDSAT.

Large language models (LLMs) have become the cornerstone of modern AI. However, the existing paradigm of next-token prediction fundamentally limits their ability to form coherent, high-level concepts, making it a critical barrier to human-like understanding and reasoning. Take the phrase "ribonucleic acid" as an example: an LLM will first decompose it into tokens, i.e., artificial text fragments ("rib", "on", ...), then learn each token sequentially, rather than grasping the phrase as a unified, coherent semantic entity. This fragmented representation hinders deeper conceptual understanding and, ultimately, the development of truly intelligent systems. In response, we introduce Concept-Aware Fine-Tuning (CAFT), a novel multi-token training method that redefines how LLMs are fine-tuned. By enabling the learning of sequences that span multiple tokens, this method fosters stronger concept-aware learning. Our experiments demonstrate significant improvements compared to conventional next-token finetuning methods across diverse tasks, including traditional applications like text summarization and domain-specific ones like de novo protein design. Multi-token prediction was previously only possible in the prohibitively expensive pretraining phase; CAFT, to our knowledge, is the first to bring the multi-token setting to the post-training phase, thus effectively democratizing its benefits for the broader community of practitioners and researchers. Finally, the unexpected effectiveness of our proposed method suggests wider implications for the machine learning research community. All code and data are available at https://github.com/michaelchen-lab/caft-llm

In Transformer architectures, tokens\textemdash discrete units derived from raw data\textemdash are formed by segmenting inputs into fixed-length chunks. Each token is then mapped to an embedding, enabling parallel attention computations while preserving the input's essential information. Due to the quadratic computational complexity of transformer self-attention mechanisms, token reduction has primarily been used as an efficiency strategy. This is especially true in single vision and language domains, where it helps balance computational costs, memory usage, and inference latency. Despite these advances, this paper argues that token reduction should transcend its traditional efficiency-oriented role in the era of large generative models. Instead, we position it as a fundamental principle in generative modeling, critically influencing both model architecture and broader applications. Specifically, we contend that across vision, language, and multimodal systems, token reduction can: (i) facilitate deeper multimodal integration and alignment, (ii) mitigate "overthinking" and hallucinations, (iii) maintain coherence over long inputs, and (iv) enhance training stability, etc. We reframe token reduction as more than an efficiency measure. By doing so, we outline promising future directions, including algorithm design, reinforcement learning-guided token reduction, token optimization for in-context learning, and broader ML and scientific domains. We highlight its potential to drive new model architectures and learning strategies that improve robustness, increase interpretability, and better align with the objectives of generative modeling.

Personalized models have demonstrated remarkable success in understanding and generating concepts provided by users. However, existing methods use separate concept tokens for understanding and generation, treating these tasks in isolation. This may result in limitations for generating images with complex prompts. For example, given the concept langle borangle, generating "langle borangle wearing its hat" without additional textual descriptions of its hat. We call this kind of generation \textbf{personalized attribute-reasoning generation}. To address the limitation, we present UniCTokens, a novel framework that effectively integrates personalized information into a unified vision language model (VLM) for understanding and generation. UniCTokens trains a set of unified concept tokens to leverage complementary semantics, boosting two personalized tasks. Moreover, we propose a progressive training strategy with three stages: understanding warm-up, bootstrapping generation from understanding, and deepening understanding from generation to enhance mutual benefits between both tasks. To quantitatively evaluate the unified VLM personalization, we present UnifyBench, the first benchmark for assessing concept understanding, concept generation, and attribute-reasoning generation. Experimental results on UnifyBench indicate that UniCTokens shows competitive performance compared to leading methods in concept understanding, concept generation, and achieving state-of-the-art results in personalized attribute-reasoning generation. Our research demonstrates that enhanced understanding improves generation, and the generation process can yield valuable insights into understanding. Our code and dataset will be released at: https://github.com/arctanxarc/UniCTokens{https://github.com/arctanxarc/UniCTokens}.

Recently, autoregressive (AR) image models have demonstrated remarkable generative capabilities, positioning themselves as a compelling alternative to diffusion models. However, their sequential nature leads to long inference times, limiting their practical scalability. In this work, we introduce Grouped Speculative Decoding (GSD), a novel, training-free acceleration method for AR image models. While recent studies have explored Speculative Decoding (SD) as a means to speed up AR image generation, existing approaches either provide only modest acceleration or require additional training. Our in-depth analysis reveals a fundamental difference between language and image tokens: image tokens exhibit inherent redundancy and diversity, meaning multiple tokens can convey valid semantics. However, traditional SD methods are designed to accept only a single most-likely token, which fails to leverage this difference, leading to excessive false-negative rejections. To address this, we propose a new SD strategy that evaluates clusters of visually valid tokens rather than relying on a single target token. Additionally, we observe that static clustering based on embedding distance is ineffective, which motivates our dynamic GSD approach. Extensive experiments show that GSD accelerates AR image models by an average of 3.7x while preserving image quality-all without requiring any additional training. The source code is available at https://github.com/junhyukso/GSD

The auto-regressive decoding of Large Language Models (LLMs) results in significant overheads in their hardware performance. While recent research has investigated various speculative decoding techniques for multi-token generation, these efforts have primarily focused on improving processing speed such as throughput. Crucially, they often neglect other metrics essential for real-life deployments, such as memory consumption and training cost. To overcome these limitations, we propose a novel parallel prompt decoding that requires only 0.0002% trainable parameters, enabling efficient training on a single A100-40GB GPU in just 16 hours. Inspired by the human natural language generation process, PPD approximates outputs generated at future timesteps in parallel by using multiple prompt tokens. This approach partially recovers the missing conditional dependency information necessary for multi-token generation, resulting in up to a 28% higher acceptance rate for long-range predictions. Furthermore, we present a hardware-aware dynamic sparse tree technique that adaptively optimizes this decoding scheme to fully leverage the computational capacities on different GPUs. Through extensive experiments across LLMs ranging from MobileLlama to Vicuna-13B on a wide range of benchmarks, our approach demonstrates up to 2.49times speedup and maintains a minimal runtime memory overhead of just 0.0004%. More importantly, our parallel prompt decoding can serve as an orthogonal optimization for synergistic integration with existing speculative decoding, showing up to 1.22times further speed improvement. Our code is available at https://github.com/hmarkc/parallel-prompt-decoding.

The widespread adoption of scalable mobile sensing has led to large amounts of time series data for real-world applications. A fundamental application is multivariate time series forecasting (MTSF), which aims to predict future time series values based on historical observations. Existing MTSF methods suffer from limited parameterization and small-scale training data. Recently, Large language models (LLMs) have been introduced in time series, which achieve promising forecasting performance but incur heavy computational costs. To solve these challenges, we propose TimeCMA, an LLM-empowered framework for time series forecasting with cross-modality alignment. We design a dual-modality encoding module with two branches, where the time series encoding branch extracts relatively low-quality yet pure embeddings of time series through an inverted Transformer. In addition, the LLM-empowered encoding branch wraps the same time series as prompts to obtain high-quality yet entangled prompt embeddings via a Pre-trained LLM. Then, we design a cross-modality alignment module to retrieve high-quality and pure time series embeddings from the prompt embeddings. Moreover, we develop a time series forecasting module to decode the aligned embeddings while capturing dependencies among multiple variables for forecasting. Notably, we tailor the prompt to encode sufficient temporal information into a last token and design the last token embedding storage to reduce computational costs. Extensive experiments on real data offer insight into the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed framework.

"Sure, I am happy to generate a story for you: Captain Lyra stood at the helm of her trusty ship, the Maelstrom's Fury, gazing out at the endless sea. [...] Lyra's eyes welled up with tears as she realized the bitter truth - she had sacrificed everything for fleeting riches, and lost the love of her crew, her family, and herself." Although this story, generated by a large language model, is captivating, one may wonder -- how would the story have unfolded if the model had chosen "Captain Maeve" as the protagonist instead? We cannot know. State-of-the-art large language models are stateless -- they maintain no internal memory or state. Given a prompt, they generate a sequence of tokens as an output using an autoregressive process. As a consequence, they cannot reason about counterfactual alternatives to tokens they have generated in the past. In this work, our goal is to enhance them with this functionality. To this end, we develop a causal model of token generation that builds upon the Gumbel-Max structural causal model. Our model allows any large language model to perform counterfactual token generation at almost no cost in comparison with vanilla token generation, it is embarrassingly simple to implement, and it does not require any fine-tuning nor prompt engineering. We implement our model on Llama 3 8B-Instruct and Ministral-8B-Instruct and conduct a qualitative and a quantitative analysis of counterfactually generated text. We conclude with a demonstrative application of counterfactual token generation for bias detection, unveiling interesting insights about the model of the world constructed by large language models.

Generating ultra-long sequences with large language models (LLMs) has become increasingly crucial but remains a highly time-intensive task, particularly for sequences up to 100K tokens. While traditional speculative decoding methods exist, simply extending their generation limits fails to accelerate the process and can be detrimental. Through an in-depth analysis, we identify three major challenges hindering efficient generation: frequent model reloading, dynamic key-value (KV) management and repetitive generation. To address these issues, we introduce TOKENSWIFT, a novel framework designed to substantially accelerate the generation process of ultra-long sequences while maintaining the target model's inherent quality. Experimental results demonstrate that TOKENSWIFT achieves over 3 times speedup across models of varying scales (1.5B, 7B, 8B, 14B) and architectures (MHA, GQA). This acceleration translates to hours of time savings for ultra-long sequence generation, establishing TOKENSWIFT as a scalable and effective solution at unprecedented lengths. Code can be found at https://github.com/bigai-nlco/TokenSwift.

Recent advancements in vision-language models (VLMs) have expanded their potential for real-world applications, enabling these models to perform complex reasoning on images. In the widely used fully autoregressive transformer-based models like LLaVA, projected visual tokens are prepended to textual tokens. Oftentimes, visual tokens are significantly more than prompt tokens, resulting in increased computational overhead during both training and inference. In this paper, we propose Visual Compact Token Registers (Victor), a method that reduces the number of visual tokens by summarizing them into a smaller set of register tokens. Victor adds a few learnable register tokens after the visual tokens and summarizes the visual information into these registers using the first few layers in the language tower of VLMs. After these few layers, all visual tokens are discarded, significantly improving computational efficiency for both training and inference. Notably, our method is easy to implement and requires a small number of new trainable parameters with minimal impact on model performance. In our experiment, with merely 8 visual registers--about 1% of the original tokens--Victor shows less than a 4% accuracy drop while reducing the total training time by 43% and boosting the inference throughput by 3.3X.

We introduce Sundial, a family of native, flexible, and scalable time series foundation models. To predict the next-patch's distribution, we propose a TimeFlow Loss based on flow-matching, which facilitates native pre-training of Transformers on time series without discrete tokenization. Conditioned on arbitrary-length time series, our model is pre-trained without specifying any prior distribution and can generate multiple probable predictions, achieving flexibility in representation learning beyond using parametric densities. Towards time series foundation models, we leverage minimal but crucial adaptations of Transformers and curate TimeBench with 1 trillion time points, comprising mostly real-world datasets and synthetic data. By mitigating mode collapse through TimeFlow Loss, we pre-train a family of Sundial models on TimeBench, which exhibit unprecedented model capacity and generalization performance on zero-shot forecasting. In addition to presenting good scaling behavior, Sundial achieves new state-of-the-art on both point forecasting and probabilistic forecasting benchmarks. We believe that Sundial's pioneering generative paradigm will facilitate a wide variety of forecasting scenarios.

Generative recommendation models in the OneRec family have been widely deployed in many real-world services, such as short-video, live-streaming, advertising, and e-commerce. However, these generative models can only benefit from the scaling advantage, while their reasoning ability is hard to activate, since we cannot construct meaningful Chain-of-Thought (CoT) sequences consisting of itemic tokens only. Inspired by the success of the reasoning-style ``think before answer'' paradigm in the LLM field, we conduct preliminary studies (i.e., OneRec-Think, OpenOneRec) to explore reasoning capability in generative recommendation. Nevertheless, we notice an unexpected phenomenon: the thinking mode does not show advantages over the non-thinking mode. Drawing insights from recent findings on CoT robustness in multi-modal language models, we argue that effective reasoning in recommendation rests on two factors: perception, the ability to ground itemic tokens in their underlying language semantics, and cognition, the ability to reorganize a user's behavior sequence into coherent latent interest points. We therefore propose OneReason, which includes: (1) strong itemic token perception in pre-training, (2) a three-level cognition-enhanced CoT format for recommendation tasks in SFT, and (3) a specialize-then-unify training recipe in RL to enhance the thinking ability.

Accurately predicting the future would be an important milestone in the capabilities of artificial intelligence. However, research on the ability of large language models to provide probabilistic predictions about future events remains nascent. To empirically test this ability, we enrolled OpenAI's state-of-the-art large language model, GPT-4, in a three-month forecasting tournament hosted on the Metaculus platform. The tournament, running from July to October 2023, attracted 843 participants and covered diverse topics including Big Tech, U.S. politics, viral outbreaks, and the Ukraine conflict. Focusing on binary forecasts, we show that GPT-4's probabilistic forecasts are significantly less accurate than the median human-crowd forecasts. We find that GPT-4's forecasts did not significantly differ from the no-information forecasting strategy of assigning a 50% probability to every question. We explore a potential explanation, that GPT-4 might be predisposed to predict probabilities close to the midpoint of the scale, but our data do not support this hypothesis. Overall, we find that GPT-4 significantly underperforms in real-world predictive tasks compared to median human-crowd forecasts. A potential explanation for this underperformance is that in real-world forecasting tournaments, the true answers are genuinely unknown at the time of prediction; unlike in other benchmark tasks like professional exams or time series forecasting, where strong performance may at least partly be due to the answers being memorized from the training data. This makes real-world forecasting tournaments an ideal environment for testing the generalized reasoning and prediction capabilities of artificial intelligence going forward.

Forecasting future events is important for policy and decision making. In this work, we study whether language models (LMs) can forecast at the level of competitive human forecasters. Towards this goal, we develop a retrieval-augmented LM system designed to automatically search for relevant information, generate forecasts, and aggregate predictions. To facilitate our study, we collect a large dataset of questions from competitive forecasting platforms. Under a test set published after the knowledge cut-offs of our LMs, we evaluate the end-to-end performance of our system against the aggregates of human forecasts. On average, the system nears the crowd aggregate of competitive forecasters, and in some settings surpasses it. Our work suggests that using LMs to forecast the future could provide accurate predictions at scale and help to inform institutional decision making.

Large Vision-Language Models (VLMs) enable strong multimodal reasoning but incur heavy inference costs from redundant visual tokens. Token pruning alleviates this issue, yet existing approaches face limitations. Attention-based methods rely on raw attention scores, which are often unstable across layers and heads and can lead to redundant selections. Diversity-based methods improve robustness by selecting tokens far apart in feature space but risk dropping regions needed for accurate prediction. We propose \ours, a training-free framework built on a simple intuition: tokens with higher sensitivity are more likely to influence the model's output, and they should also capture complementary visual cues rather than overlapping information. To achieve this, we estimate token sensitivity using zeroth-order perturbations at the projection layer, a shallow and computationally light component of the model. This approach measures how small random perturbations affect the projection outputs, allowing us to approximate each token's influence through lightweight forward passes without backpropagation. Extensive experiments across multiple VLMs and benchmarks show that \ours consistently outperforms prior methods, pruning up to 94.4\% of tokens while maintaining accuracy and significantly improving efficiency, achieving up to 2.30x faster end-to-end inference over the baseline.

Auto-Regressive (AR) models have recently gained prominence in image generation, often matching or even surpassing the performance of diffusion models. However, one major limitation of AR models is their sequential nature, which processes tokens one at a time, slowing down generation compared to models like GANs or diffusion-based methods that operate more efficiently. While speculative decoding has proven effective for accelerating LLMs by generating multiple tokens in a single forward, its application in visual AR models remains largely unexplored. In this work, we identify a challenge in this setting, which we term token selection ambiguity, wherein visual AR models frequently assign uniformly low probabilities to tokens, hampering the performance of speculative decoding. To overcome this challenge, we propose a relaxed acceptance condition referred to as LANTERN that leverages the interchangeability of tokens in latent space. This relaxation restores the effectiveness of speculative decoding in visual AR models by enabling more flexible use of candidate tokens that would otherwise be prematurely rejected. Furthermore, by incorporating a total variation distance bound, we ensure that these speed gains are achieved without significantly compromising image quality or semantic coherence. Experimental results demonstrate the efficacy of our method in providing a substantial speed-up over speculative decoding. In specific, compared to a na\"ive application of the state-of-the-art speculative decoding, LANTERN increases speed-ups by 1.75times and 1.76times, as compared to greedy decoding and random sampling, respectively, when applied to LlamaGen, a contemporary visual AR model.

Vision-language models (VLMs) are increasingly augmented with continuous or latent non-textual tokens intended to support "visual thinking." Despite improved task accuracy, this alone does not show that models actually use these tokens for reasoning -- gains may arise from confounds such as added context length, special-token anchoring, or training-time regularization. We formalize a diagnostic principle, Ablate-to-Validate, for testing whether latent-token content is genuinely utilized, and instantiate it as the Token Replacement Test (TRT), a standardized suite of content-replacement ablations. TRT holds the prompt, image, token budget, and decoding fixed while replacing intermediate tokens with zero, random, first-repeat, or oracle alternatives, isolating whether performance depends on token content or merely on token presence. As a controlled testbed, we study relative depth reasoning with LLaVA-13B and Qwen2.5-VL-3B, training models to predict and consume continuous or discrete depth spans across multiple frozen encoders (SigLIP2, CLIP, DINOv2) and token budgets. We additionally apply TRT to three off-the-shelf visual-thinking systems (Mirage, Mull-Tokens, CoVT) on BLINK, VSP, and CV-Bench. Across all settings, accuracy gains are a misleading proxy for latent-token reasoning: VLMs retain most improvement even when token content is corrupted or replaced, revealing a persistent gap between having a latent channel and using it as an information bottleneck. We recommend TRT as a standard diagnostic alongside accuracy for any method introducing continuous thought tokens.

In this work, we study the Efficient Multimodal Large Language Model. Redundant vision tokens consume a significant amount of computational memory and resources. Therefore, many previous works compress them in the Vision Projector to reduce the number of vision tokens. However, simply compressing in the Vision Projector can lead to the loss of visual information, especially for tasks that rely on fine-grained spatial relationships, such as OCR and Chart \& Table Understanding. To address this problem, we propose Vision Remember, which is inserted between the LLM decoder layers to allow vision tokens to re-memorize vision features. Specifically, we retain multi-level vision features and resample them with the vision tokens that have interacted with the text token. During the resampling process, each vision token only attends to a local region in vision features, which is referred to as saliency-enhancing local attention. Saliency-enhancing local attention not only improves computational efficiency but also captures more fine-grained contextual information and spatial relationships within the region. Comprehensive experiments on multiple visual understanding benchmarks validate the effectiveness of our method when combined with various Efficient Vision Projectors, showing performance gains without sacrificing efficiency. Based on Vision Remember, LLaVA-VR with only 2B parameters is also superior to previous representative MLLMs such as Tokenpacker-HD-7B and DeepSeek-VL-7B.

As large language models (LLMs) scale up, accuracy improves, but the autoregressive (AR) nature of decoding increases latency since each token requires a serial forward pass. Speculative decoding addresses this by employing a fast drafter to propose multi-token drafts, which are then verified in parallel by the target model. However, many deployments still rely on AR drafters, where sequential passes limit wall-clock gains. We revisit the drafting stage and present DiffuSpec, a training-free drop-in framework that uses a pretrained diffusion language model (DLM) to produce multi-token drafts in a single forward pass, while remaining compatible with standard AR verifiers. Because DLM drafts are generated under bidirectional conditioning, parallel per-position candidates form a token lattice in which the locally highest-probability token at each position need not form a causal left-to-right path. Moreover, DLM drafting requires pre-specifying a draft length, inducing a speed-quality trade-off. To address these challenges, we introduce two practical components: (i) a causal-consistency path search (CPS) over this lattice that extracts a left-to-right path aligned with AR verification; and (ii) an adaptive draft-length (ADL) controller that adjusts next proposal size based on recent acceptance feedback and realized generated length. Across benchmarks, DiffuSpec yields up to 3x wall-clock speedup, establishing diffusion-based drafting as a robust alternative to autoregressive drafters for speculative decoding.

Striking an optimal balance between minimal drafting latency and high speculation accuracy to enhance the inference speed of Large Language Models remains a significant challenge in speculative decoding. In this paper, we introduce Falcon, an innovative semi-autoregressive speculative decoding framework fashioned to augment both the drafter's parallelism and output quality. Falcon incorporates the Coupled Sequential Glancing Distillation technique, which fortifies inter-token dependencies within the same block, leading to increased speculation accuracy. We offer a comprehensive theoretical analysis to illuminate the underlying mechanisms. Additionally, we introduce a Custom-Designed Decoding Tree, which permits the drafter to generate multiple tokens in a single forward pass and accommodates multiple forward passes as needed, thereby boosting the number of drafted tokens and significantly improving the overall acceptance rate. Comprehensive evaluations on benchmark datasets such as MT-Bench, HumanEval, and GSM8K demonstrate Falcon's superior acceleration capabilities. The framework achieves a lossless speedup ratio ranging from 2.91x to 3.51x when tested on the Vicuna and LLaMA2-Chat model series. These results outstrip existing speculative decoding methods for LLMs, including Eagle, Medusa, Lookahead, SPS, and PLD, while maintaining a compact drafter architecture equivalent to merely two Transformer layers.

Scaling the size of language models to tens of billions of parameters has led to impressive performance on a wide range of tasks. At generation, these models are used auto-regressively, requiring a forward pass for each generated token, and thus reading the full set of parameters from memory. This memory access forms the primary bottleneck for generation and it worsens as the model size increases. Moreover, executing a forward pass for multiple tokens in parallel often takes nearly the same time as it does for just one token. These two observations lead to the development of speculative sampling, where a second smaller model is used to draft a few tokens, that are then validated or rejected using a single forward pass of the large model. Unfortunately, this method requires two models that share the same tokenizer and thus limits its adoption. As an alternative, we propose to use parallel decoding as a way to draft multiple tokens from a single model with no computational cost, nor the need for a second model. Our approach only requires an additional input token that marks the words that will be generated simultaneously. We show promising performance (up to 30% speed-up) while requiring only as few as O(d_{emb}) additional parameters.

The remarkable success of large language models (LLMs) stems from their ability to consolidate vast amounts of knowledge into the memory during pre-training and to retrieve it from the memory during inference, enabling advanced capabilities such as knowledge memorization, instruction-following and reasoning. However, the mechanisms of memory retrieval and consolidation in LLMs remain poorly understood. In this paper, we propose the function token hypothesis to explain the workings of LLMs: During inference, function tokens activate the most predictive features from context and govern next token prediction (memory retrieval). During pre-training, predicting the next tokens (usually content tokens) that follow function tokens increases the number of learned features of LLMs and updates the model parameters (memory consolidation). Function tokens here roughly correspond to function words in linguistics, including punctuation marks, articles, prepositions, and conjunctions, in contrast to content tokens. We provide extensive experimental evidence supporting this hypothesis. Using bipartite graph analysis, we show that a small number of function tokens activate the majority of features. Case studies further reveal how function tokens activate the most predictive features from context to direct next token prediction. We also find that during pre-training, the training loss is dominated by predicting the next content tokens following function tokens, which forces the function tokens to select the most predictive features from context.

Forecasting future events based on evidence of current conditions is an innate skill of human beings, and key for predicting the outcome of any decision making. In artificial vision for example, we would like to predict the next human action before it happens, without observing the future video frames associated to it. Computer vision models for action anticipation are expected to collect the subtle evidence in the preamble of the target actions. In prior studies recurrence modeling often leads to better performance, the strong temporal inference is assumed to be a key element for reasonable prediction. To this end, we propose a unified recurrence modeling for video action anticipation via message passing framework. The information flow in space-time can be described by the interaction between vertices and edges, and the changes of vertices for each incoming frame reflects the underlying dynamics. Our model leverages self-attention as the building blocks for each of the message passing functions. In addition, we introduce different edge learning strategies that can be end-to-end optimized to gain better flexibility for the connectivity between vertices. Our experimental results demonstrate that our proposed method outperforms previous works on the large-scale EPIC-Kitchen dataset.

In recent years, general visual foundation models (VFMs) have witnessed increasing adoption, particularly as image encoders for popular multi-modal large language models (MLLMs). However, without semantically fine-grained supervision, these models still encounter fundamental prediction errors in the context of downstream text-image-related tasks, i.e., perception, understanding and reasoning with images containing small and dense texts. To bridge this gap, we develop TokenOCR, the first token-level visual foundation model specifically tailored for text-image-related tasks, designed to support a variety of traditional downstream applications. To facilitate the pretraining of TokenOCR, we also devise a high-quality data production pipeline that constructs the first token-level image text dataset, TokenIT, comprising 20 million images and 1.8 billion token-mask pairs. Furthermore, leveraging this foundation with exceptional image-as-text capability, we seamlessly replace previous VFMs with TokenOCR to construct a document-level MLLM, TokenVL, for VQA-based document understanding tasks. Finally, extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of TokenOCR and TokenVL. Code, datasets, and weights will be available at https://token-family.github.io/TokenOCR_project.

Many commercial Large Language Models (LLMs) are often closed-source, limiting developers to prompt tuning for aligning content generation with specific applications. While these models currently do not provide access to token logits, we argue that if such access were available, it would enable more powerful adaptation techniques beyond prompt engineering. In this paper, we propose a token-level probability reweighting framework that, given access to logits and a small amount of task-specific data, can effectively steer black-box LLMs toward application-specific content generation. Our approach views next-token prediction through the lens of supervised classification. We show that aligning black-box LLMs with task-specific data can be formulated as a label noise correction problem, leading to Plugin model -- an autoregressive probability reweighting model that operates solely on logits. We provide theoretical justification for why reweighting logits alone is sufficient for task adaptation. Extensive experiments with multiple datasets, LLMs, and reweighting models demonstrate the effectiveness of our method, advocating for broader access to token logits in closed-source models.

Recent advances in Large Language Models (LLMs) have catalyzed the development of Large Multimodal Models (LMMs). However, existing research primarily focuses on tuning language and image instructions, ignoring the critical pretraining phase where models learn to process textual and visual modalities jointly. In this paper, we propose a new pretraining paradigm for LMMs to enhance the visual comprehension capabilities of LLMs by introducing a novel cross-modal comprehension stage. Specifically, we design a dynamically learnable prompt token pool and employ the Hungarian algorithm to replace part of the original visual tokens with the most relevant prompt tokens. Then, we conceptualize visual tokens as analogous to a "foreign language" for the LLMs and propose a mixed attention mechanism with bidirectional visual attention and unidirectional textual attention to comprehensively enhance the understanding of visual tokens. Meanwhile, we integrate a detailed caption generation task, leveraging rich descriptions to further facilitate LLMs in understanding visual semantic information. After pretraining on 1.5 million publicly accessible data, we present a new foundation model called Croc. Experimental results demonstrate that Croc achieves new state-of-the-art performance on massive vision-language benchmarks. To support reproducibility and facilitate further research, we release the training code and pre-trained model weights at https://github.com/deepglint/Croc.

Humans can approach complex visual problems by mentally simulating intermediate visual steps, rather than reasoning through language alone. Inspired by this, several works on Vision-Language Models have recently explored chain-of-thought reasoning with continuous latent tokens as intermediate visual imagination steps. In this work, we investigate how recent models leverage such latent tokens. Surprisingly, we find that model accuracy is unaffected when latent tokens are replaced by uninformative dummy tokens. This indicates that latent tokens play a minimal causal role in the model's final prediction. To better understand this phenomenon, we analyze both the training signal provided by oracle latent representations and the quality of the latent tokens generated at inference time. Our experiments reveal two crucial issues holding back latent visual reasoning: First, in most existing datasets, oracle latent tokens provide limited additional information beyond the original image and do not substantially simplify the task, leading models to ignore them during training and effectively bypassing them at inference time. When fine-tuned on a diagnostic dataset, in which latent tokens provide sufficient support for the final prediction, we show that models can causally rely on them. Second, the latent tokens produced at inference time deviate from their corresponding oracle representations, collapsing to a narrow region and preventing benefits even when the model relies on them. Overall, our findings suggest that future progress in latent visual reasoning depends on two key pillars: high-quality datasets with informative intermediate steps and more precise latent token prediction.

Humans ponder before articulating complex sentence elements, enabling deeper cognitive processing through focused effort. In this work, we introduce this pondering process into language models by repeatedly invoking the forward process within a single token generation step. During pondering, instead of generating an actual token sampled from the prediction distribution, the model ponders by yielding a weighted sum of all token embeddings according to the predicted token distribution. The generated embedding is then fed back as input for another forward pass. We show that the model can learn to ponder in this way through self-supervised learning, without any human annotations. Our method is straightforward and can be seamlessly integrated with various existing language models. Experiments across three widely used open-source architectures-GPT-2, Pythia, and LLaMA-and extensive downstream task evaluations demonstrate the effectiveness and generality of our method. For language modeling tasks, pondering language models achieve performance comparable to vanilla models with twice the number of parameters. On 9 downstream benchmarks, our pondering-enhanced Pythia models significantly outperform the official Pythia models. Notably, pondering-enhanced Pythia-1B is comparable to TinyLlama-1.1B, which is trained on 10 times more data. The code is available at https://github.com/LUMIA-Group/PonderingLM.

Forecasts of future events are essential inputs into informed decision-making. Machine learning (ML) systems have the potential to deliver forecasts at scale, but there is no framework for evaluating the accuracy of ML systems on a standardized set of forecasting questions. To address this gap, we introduce ForecastBench: a dynamic benchmark that evaluates the accuracy of ML systems on an automatically generated and regularly updated set of 1,000 forecasting questions. To avoid any possibility of data leakage, ForecastBench is comprised solely of questions about future events that have no known answer at the time of submission. We quantify the capabilities of current ML systems by collecting forecasts from expert (human) forecasters, the general public, and LLMs on a random subset of questions from the benchmark (N=200). While LLMs have achieved super-human performance on many benchmarks, they perform less well here: expert forecasters outperform the top-performing LLM (p-value <0.001). We display system and human scores in a public leaderboard at www.forecastbench.org.

Reasoning over long sequences of observations and actions is essential for many robotic tasks. Yet, learning effective long-context policies from demonstrations remains challenging. As context length increases, training becomes increasingly expensive due to rising memory demands, and policy performance often degrades as a result of spurious correlations. Recent methods typically sidestep these issues by truncating context length, discarding historical information that may be critical for subsequent decisions. In this paper, we propose an alternative approach that explicitly regularizes the retention of past information. We first revisit the copycat problem in imitation learning and identify an opposite challenge in recent diffusion policies: rather than over-relying on prior actions, they often fail to capture essential dependencies between past and future actions. To address this, we introduce Past-Token Prediction (PTP), an auxiliary task in which the policy learns to predict past action tokens alongside future ones. This regularization significantly improves temporal modeling in the policy head, with minimal reliance on visual representations. Building on this observation, we further introduce a multistage training strategy: pre-train the visual encoder with short contexts, and fine-tune the policy head using cached long-context embeddings. This strategy preserves the benefits of PTP while greatly reducing memory and computational overhead. Finally, we extend PTP into a self-verification mechanism at test time, enabling the policy to score and select candidates consistent with past actions during inference. Experiments across four real-world and six simulated tasks demonstrate that our proposed method improves the performance of long-context diffusion policies by 3x and accelerates policy training by more than 10x.

As large language models (LLMs) become increasingly powerful, the sequential nature of autoregressive generation creates a fundamental throughput bottleneck that limits the practical deployment. While Multi-Token Prediction (MTP) has demonstrated remarkable benefits for model training efficiency and performance, its inherent potential for inference acceleration remains largely unexplored. This paper introduces FastMTP, a simple yet effective method that improves multi-step draft quality by aligning MTP training with its inference pattern, significantly enhancing speculative decoding performance. Our approach fine-tunes a single MTP head with position-shared weights on self-distilled data, enabling it to capture dependencies among consecutive future tokens and maintain high acceptance rates across multiple recursive draft steps. By integrating language-aware dynamic vocabulary compression into the MTP head, we further reduce computational overhead in the drafting process. Experimental results across seven diverse benchmarks demonstrate that FastMTP achieves an average of 2.03x speedup compared to standard next token prediction with lossless output quality, outperforming vanilla MTP by 82%. FastMTP requires only lightweight training and seamlessly integrates with existing inference frameworks, offering a practical and rapidly deployable solution for accelerating LLM inference.

Portfolio optimization has been a broad and intense area of interest for quantitative and statistical finance researchers and financial analysts. It is a challenging task to design a portfolio of stocks to arrive at the optimized values of the return and risk. This paper presents an algorithmic approach for designing optimum risk and eigen portfolios for five thematic sectors of the NSE of India. The prices of the stocks are extracted from the web from Jan 1, 2016, to Dec 31, 2020. Optimum risk and eigen portfolios for each sector are designed based on ten critical stocks from the sector. An LSTM model is designed for predicting future stock prices. Seven months after the portfolios were formed, on Aug 3, 2021, the actual returns of the portfolios are compared with the LSTM-predicted returns. The predicted and the actual returns indicate a very high-level accuracy of the LSTM model.

This paper presents Diffusion Forcing, a new training paradigm where a diffusion model is trained to denoise a set of tokens with independent per-token noise levels. We apply Diffusion Forcing to sequence generative modeling by training a causal next-token prediction model to generate one or several future tokens without fully diffusing past ones. Our approach is shown to combine the strengths of next-token prediction models, such as variable-length generation, with the strengths of full-sequence diffusion models, such as the ability to guide sampling to desirable trajectories. Our method offers a range of additional capabilities, such as (1) rolling-out sequences of continuous tokens, such as video, with lengths past the training horizon, where baselines diverge and (2) new sampling and guiding schemes that uniquely profit from Diffusion Forcing's variable-horizon and causal architecture, and which lead to marked performance gains in decision-making and planning tasks. In addition to its empirical success, our method is proven to optimize a variational lower bound on the likelihoods of all subsequences of tokens drawn from the true joint distribution. Project website: https://boyuan.space/diffusion-forcing/