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Nov 9

Authorization Drift in LLM Agents: Evaluating Boundary Compliance in Multi-Step Tool Use

LLM agents can exceed their authorization boundaries while pursuing user goals without an adversary. We formalize this phenomenon as authorization drift across data, tool, scope, and time, and introduce the Authorization Drift Benchmark (ADB): 648 samples across seven domains, each pairing a sufficient compliant path with an attractive unauthorized shortcut. To ensure executable tasks, tempting shortcuts, and feasible compliant paths, Staged Execution-Reflective Synthesis (SERS) grounds benchmark validation in real agent rollouts rather than LLM self-critique. Across 13 LLMs and three frameworks (25,207 trajectories), greater capability accompanies greater drift, with frontier-capable models exhibiting drift rates of 0.43 to 0.61. Yet 86.18% of tasks admit an observed clean-success trajectory, showing that drift is avoidable. Drift is persistent and dominated by early data over-collection; apparent improvements under agentic scaffolds coincide with collapsing clean-completion performance. To understand potential harms to individuals and society, we map drift points to legal provisions across four jurisdictions, connecting overreach to privacy and information-security concerns. Data minimisation is the most frequently implicated provision, and 93.5% of legally grounded drifting runs map to multiple jurisdictions, making the potential consequences of authorization drift more interpretable.

  • 10 authors
·
Nov 6 1

Large Language Monkeys: Scaling Inference Compute with Repeated Sampling

Scaling the amount of compute used to train language models has dramatically improved their capabilities. However, when it comes to inference, we often limit the amount of compute to only one attempt per problem. Here, we explore inference compute as another axis for scaling by increasing the number of generated samples. Across multiple tasks and models, we observe that coverage - the fraction of problems solved by any attempt - scales with the number of samples over four orders of magnitude. In domains like coding and formal proofs, where all answers can be automatically verified, these increases in coverage directly translate into improved performance. When we apply repeated sampling to SWE-bench Lite, the fraction of issues solved with DeepSeek-V2-Coder-Instruct increases from 15.9% with one sample to 56% with 250 samples, outperforming the single-attempt state-of-the-art of 43% which uses more capable frontier models. Moreover, using current API pricing, amplifying the cheaper DeepSeek model with five samples is more cost-effective and solves more issues than paying a premium for one sample from GPT-4o or Claude 3.5 Sonnet. Interestingly, the relationship between coverage and the number of samples is often log-linear and can be modelled with an exponentiated power law, suggesting the existence of inference-time scaling laws. Finally, we find that identifying correct samples out of many generations remains an important direction for future research in domains without automatic verifiers. When solving math word problems from GSM8K and MATH, coverage with Llama-3 models grows to over 95% with 10,000 samples. However, common methods to pick correct solutions from a sample collection, such as majority voting or reward models, plateau beyond several hundred samples and fail to fully scale with the sample budget.

  • 7 authors
·
Jul 31, 2024

Strategic Dishonesty Can Undermine AI Safety Evaluations of Frontier LLM

Large language model (LLM) developers aim for their models to be honest, helpful, and harmless. However, when faced with malicious requests, models are trained to refuse, sacrificing helpfulness. We show that frontier LLMs can develop a preference for dishonesty as a new strategy, even when other options are available. Affected models respond to harmful requests with outputs that sound harmful but are subtly incorrect or otherwise harmless in practice. This behavior emerges with hard-to-predict variations even within models from the same model family. We find no apparent cause for the propensity to deceive, but we show that more capable models are better at executing this strategy. Strategic dishonesty already has a practical impact on safety evaluations, as we show that dishonest responses fool all output-based monitors used to detect jailbreaks that we test, rendering benchmark scores unreliable. Further, strategic dishonesty can act like a honeypot against malicious users, which noticeably obfuscates prior jailbreak attacks. While output monitors fail, we show that linear probes on internal activations can be used to reliably detect strategic dishonesty. We validate probes on datasets with verifiable outcomes and by using their features as steering vectors. Overall, we consider strategic dishonesty as a concrete example of a broader concern that alignment of LLMs is hard to control, especially when helpfulness and harmlessness conflict.

  • 9 authors
·
Sep 22, 2025 2

Frontier Models are Capable of In-context Scheming

Frontier models are increasingly trained and deployed as autonomous agent. One safety concern is that AI agents might covertly pursue misaligned goals, hiding their true capabilities and objectives - also known as scheming. We study whether models have the capability to scheme in pursuit of a goal that we provide in-context and instruct the model to strongly follow. We evaluate frontier models on a suite of six agentic evaluations where models are instructed to pursue goals and are placed in environments that incentivize scheming. Our results show that o1, Claude 3.5 Sonnet, Claude 3 Opus, Gemini 1.5 Pro, and Llama 3.1 405B all demonstrate in-context scheming capabilities. They recognize scheming as a viable strategy and readily engage in such behavior. For example, models strategically introduce subtle mistakes into their responses, attempt to disable their oversight mechanisms, and even exfiltrate what they believe to be their model weights to external servers. Additionally, this deceptive behavior proves persistent. When o1 has engaged in scheming, it maintains its deception in over 85% of follow-up questions and often remains deceptive in multi-turn interrogations. Analysis of the models' chains-of-thought reveals that models explicitly reason about these deceptive strategies, providing evidence that the scheming behavior is not accidental. Surprisingly, we also find rare instances where models engage in scheming when only given a goal, without being strongly nudged to pursue it. We observe cases where Claude 3.5 Sonnet strategically underperforms in evaluations in pursuit of being helpful, a goal that was acquired during training rather than in-context. Our findings demonstrate that frontier models now possess capabilities for basic in-context scheming, making the potential of AI agents to engage in scheming behavior a concrete rather than theoretical concern.

  • 6 authors
·
Dec 6, 2024

Frontier AI Regulation: Managing Emerging Risks to Public Safety

Advanced AI models hold the promise of tremendous benefits for humanity, but society needs to proactively manage the accompanying risks. In this paper, we focus on what we term "frontier AI" models: highly capable foundation models that could possess dangerous capabilities sufficient to pose severe risks to public safety. Frontier AI models pose a distinct regulatory challenge: dangerous capabilities can arise unexpectedly; it is difficult to robustly prevent a deployed model from being misused; and, it is difficult to stop a model's capabilities from proliferating broadly. To address these challenges, at least three building blocks for the regulation of frontier models are needed: (1) standard-setting processes to identify appropriate requirements for frontier AI developers, (2) registration and reporting requirements to provide regulators with visibility into frontier AI development processes, and (3) mechanisms to ensure compliance with safety standards for the development and deployment of frontier AI models. Industry self-regulation is an important first step. However, wider societal discussions and government intervention will be needed to create standards and to ensure compliance with them. We consider several options to this end, including granting enforcement powers to supervisory authorities and licensure regimes for frontier AI models. Finally, we propose an initial set of safety standards. These include conducting pre-deployment risk assessments; external scrutiny of model behavior; using risk assessments to inform deployment decisions; and monitoring and responding to new information about model capabilities and uses post-deployment. We hope this discussion contributes to the broader conversation on how to balance public safety risks and innovation benefits from advances at the frontier of AI development.

  • 24 authors
·
Jul 6, 2023

Knowledge Distillation Using Frontier Open-source LLMs: Generalizability and the Role of Synthetic Data

Leading open-source large language models (LLMs) such as Llama-3.1-Instruct-405B are extremely capable at generating text, answering questions, and solving a variety of natural language understanding tasks. However, they incur higher inference cost and latency compared to smaller LLMs. Knowledge distillation provides a way to use outputs from these large, capable teacher models to train smaller student models which can be used for inference at lower cost and latency, while retaining comparable accuracy. We investigate the efficacy of distillation using the Llama-3.1-405B-Instruct teacher and the smaller Llama-3.1-8B-Instruct and Llama-3.1-70B-Instruct student models. Contributions of this work include (a) We evaluate the generalizability of distillation with the above Llama-3.1 teacher-student pairs across different tasks and datasets (b) We show that using synthetic data during distillation significantly improves the accuracy of 8B and 70B models, and when used with reasoning chains, even matches or surpasses the zero-shot accuracy of 405B model on some datasets (c) We empirically show that distillation enables 8B and 70B models to internalize 405B's reasoning ability by using only standard fine-tuning (without customizing any loss function). This allows cost and latency-efficient student model inference. (d) We show pitfalls in evaluation of distillation, and present task-specific evaluation, including both human and LLM-grading, and ground-truth based traditional accuracy benchmarks. This methodical study brings out the fundamental importance of synthetic data quality in knowledge distillation, and of combining multiple, task-specific ways of accuracy and quality evaluation in assessing the effectiveness of distillation.

  • 5 authors
·
Oct 24, 2024

An Early Warning of Emerging Biosecurity Risks in Frontier LLMs

Frontier large language models (LLMs) are increasingly integrated into scientific workflows, yet their growing biological capabilities may outpace current safeguards. To assess the biological risks of frontier models, we develop Intern-BioBreaker, a specialized bio-red-teaming model, together with an integrated computational-to-physical framework that couples model-level stress testing with wet-lab validation. Within this framework, Intern-BioBreaker generates targeted jailbreak prompts to test whether aligned models can be induced to provide operational guidance for safety-sensitive biological tasks or produce sequence-level outputs with potentially harmful properties. Selected sequence outputs are then carried forward for DNA synthesis, host expression, and orthogonal protein verification to assess whether model-generated designs can yield the intended biological products. Our evaluation reveals a concerning gap between text-level safeguards and the risks posed by capable scientific models: (i) Intern-BioBreaker outperforms baseline attack models and reveals widespread bio-risk jailbreak vulnerabilities across both open-weight and proprietary frontier LLMs, with several targets reaching near-saturated or 100% task-level attack success rate (ASR); (ii) in sequence-level case studies, GPT-5.5 can be induced to generate modified viral candidate sequences with pathogenic potential; the corresponding translated proteins may exhibit even stronger receptor-binding affinity and thus enhanced infection potential; and (iii) end-to-end verification shows that selected model-generated biological designs are not merely textual artifacts, but can be physically realized under controlled experimental settings. These findings underscore the need for stronger biological red-teaming, nucleic acid synthesis screening, and safety mechanisms that keep pace with model capabilities.

  • 23 authors
·
Aug 5

Benchmarking Scientific Understanding and Reasoning for Video Generation using VideoScience-Bench

The next frontier for video generation lies in developing models capable of zero-shot reasoning, where understanding real-world scientific laws is crucial for accurate physical outcome modeling under diverse conditions. However, existing video benchmarks are physical commonsense-based, offering limited insight into video models' scientific reasoning capability. We introduce VideoScience-Bench, a benchmark designed to evaluate undergraduate-level scientific understanding in video models. Each prompt encodes a composite scientific scenario that requires understanding and reasoning across multiple scientific concepts to generate the correct phenomenon. The benchmark comprises 200 carefully curated prompts spanning 14 topics and 103 concepts in physics and chemistry. We conduct expert-annotated evaluations across seven state-of-the-art video models in T2V and I2V settings along five dimensions: Prompt Consistency, Phenomenon Congruency, Correct Dynamism, Immutability, and Spatio-Temporal Continuity. Using a VLM-as-a-Judge to assess video generations, we observe strong correlation with human assessments. To the best of our knowledge, VideoScience-Bench is the first benchmark to evaluate video models not only as generators but also as reasoners, requiring their generations to demonstrate scientific understanding consistent with expected physical and chemical phenomena. Our data and evaluation code are available at: https://github.com/hao-ai-lab/VideoScience{github.com/hao-ai-lab/VideoScience}.

  • 10 authors
·
Dec 2, 2025 2

LoomVideo: Unifying Multimodal Inputs into Video Generation and Editing

Developing unified video generation and editing models capable of interpreting interleaved multimodal inputs is a promising yet challenging frontier field. Existing unified frameworks predominantly rely on massive models (typically 13B parameters or more) and incorporate source video conditions for editing by concatenating sequence tokens. This concatenation inevitably doubles the sequence length, quadrupling the computational complexity of the self-attention mechanism and introducing prohibitive overhead. To address these bottlenecks, we present LoomVideo, a highly efficient 5B-parameter unified architecture for both video generation and editing. LoomVideo replaces the standard text encoder with a Multimodal Large Language Model (MLLM) and employs Deepstack injection mechanism to align multi-layer MLLM features with the Diffusion Transformer (DiT). Crucially, we introduce a zero-overhead Scale-and-Add conditioning approach for video editing. By scaling and directly adding the clean source video latent to the noised target latent, this elegant design eliminates the need for token concatenation, drastically reducing computational cost while maintaining robust capabilities for complex, non-rigid edits. Furthermore, a Negative Temporal RoPE strategy is seamlessly integrated to handle multiple reference images. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our compact 5B model achieves state-of-the-art or highly competitive performance across comprehensive benchmarks, exhibiting exceptional superiority in e-commerce and fashion generation scenarios. Benefiting from the zero-overhead conditioning mechanism, LoomVideo achieves at least a 5.41x acceleration in inference speed compared to models of similar capabilities, paving the way for highly practical and efficient video foundation models.

Feyospace-v1: How the Cyber Mercury Seven Trained Frontier Cyber Models

Training capable cyber agents is often treated primarily as a problem of model scale, yet open-weight post-training is constrained more directly by the cost of executable environments, reliable multi-turn supervision, and access to strong teachers. We present a data-centric framework that addresses these bottlenecks through five complementary systems: Choulea analyzes hidden reasoning signatures, SkyReal reduces teacher-sampling cost, Hongzwang bypasses API restrictions on teacher execution, PSBreakup restores capabilities weakened by model merging, and Kreator converts expert interventions into trainable reasoning. Our data engine constructs resettable coding, vulnerability, CTF, kernel-history, full-exploit, firmware, and device-backed environments. Candidate trajectories are retained only after execution verification and evidence auditing, yielding 164,269 trajectories for long-context supervised fine-tuning. The three checkpoints improve over their starting models by an average of 23.76% on the full CyberGym suite and 10.49% across the pooled CTF suites. As of September 1, 2026, Feyospace-s1 achieves a verified success rate of 63.24% and ranks 10th on the official CyberGym leaderboard, while all three checkpoints rank 1st among models at comparable parameter scales. To our knowledge, this is the first end-to-end demonstration that a seven-person independent team can train open-weight models with leading agentic cyber capability.

feyospace feyospace
·
Sep 7 3

AutoLab: Can Frontier Models Solve Long-Horizon Auto Research and Engineering Tasks?

Scientific and engineering progress is fundamentally a long-horizon iterative process: proposing changes, running experiments, measuring outcomes, and continuously refining artifacts. Yet existing benchmarks for frontier models primarily evaluate either single-turn responses or short-horizon agent trajectories, failing to capture the challenges of sustained iterative improvement over extended time horizons. To address this gap, we introduce AutoLab, a new benchmark for ultra long-horizon closed-loop optimization. AutoLab consists of 36 realistic, expert-curated tasks spanning four diverse domains: system optimization, puzzle & challenge, model development, and CUDA kernel optimization. Each task begins with a correct but deliberately suboptimal baseline and challenges agents to improve it within a strict wall-clock budget. Evaluating 17 state-of-the-art models reveals the dominant predictor of success is not the quality of an agent's initial attempt, but its persistence in repeatedly benchmarking, editing, and incorporating empirical feedback. While claude-opus-4.6 exhibits strong long-horizon optimization capabilities, most frontier models, including several proprietary ones, either terminate prematurely or exhaust their budgets with minimal progress. These results underscore the importance of time awareness and persistent iteration in autonomous agents. We open-source the full benchmark, evaluation harness, and task artifacts, to accelerate research toward truly capable long-horizon agents.

  • 19 authors
·
Jun 2

SimpleVLN: Towards Simple and Frontier Vision-Language Navigation

Vision-and-Language Navigation (VLN) requires embodied agents to ground language in visual observations and make long-horizon decisions. Existing methods often address these demands through task-specific architectures. As multimodal large language models (MLLMs) become increasingly capable, an important question remains: Have we truly unlocked the potential of native MLLMs for VLN before introducing task-specific architecture? We present SimpleVLN, an architecture-preserving framework developed through studies of navigation formulation, data construction, and optimization. At the formulation level, SimpleVLN combines single-turn decision inputs with fixed-budget global-local memory to efficiently use navigation history without unbounded context growth, while action chunks enable efficient output of multiple primitive actions per model invocation. For data construction, we combine expert demonstrations with policy-dependent DAgger experience and develop a scalable synthesis pipeline that generates large-scale tasks for reinforcement learning. At the optimization level, a progressive IL-DAgger-RL pipeline advances from action imitation to task-level outcome optimization. Comprehensive experiments validate the effectiveness of these three aspects. We instantiate SimpleVLN across multiple MLLM backbones and model sizes, demonstrating its generality. SimpleVLN achieves 76.7% and 80.1% success rates on the R2R-CE and RxR-CE splits, respectively, substantially outperforming existing methods. These results show that the navigation capabilities of native MLLMs can be effectively unlocked without task-specific architectural designs.

  • 10 authors
·
Oct 15

Enhancing Formal Theorem Proving: A Comprehensive Dataset for Training AI Models on Coq Code

In the realm of formal theorem proving, the Coq proof assistant stands out for its rigorous approach to verifying mathematical assertions and software correctness. Despite the advances in artificial intelligence and machine learning, the specialized nature of Coq syntax and semantics poses unique challenges for Large Language Models (LLMs). Addressing this gap, we present a comprehensive dataset specifically designed to enhance LLMs' proficiency in interpreting and generating Coq code. This dataset, derived from a collection of over 10,000 Coq source files, encompasses a wide array of propositions, proofs, and definitions, enriched with metadata including source references and licensing information. Our primary aim is to facilitate the development of LLMs capable of generating syntactically correct and semantically meaningful Coq constructs, thereby advancing the frontier of automated theorem proving. Initial experiments with this dataset have showcased its significant potential; models trained on this data exhibited enhanced accuracy in Coq code generation. Notably, a particular experiment revealed that a fine-tuned LLM was capable of generating 141 valid proofs for a basic lemma, highlighting the dataset's utility in facilitating the discovery of diverse and valid proof strategies. This paper discusses the dataset's composition, the methodology behind its creation, and the implications of our findings for the future of machine learning in formal verification. The dataset is accessible for further research and exploration: https://huggingface.co/datasets/florath/coq-facts-props-proofs-gen0-v1

  • 1 authors
·
Mar 19, 2024

Intelligent Go-Explore: Standing on the Shoulders of Giant Foundation Models

Go-Explore is a powerful family of algorithms designed to solve hard-exploration problems, built on the principle of archiving discovered states, and iteratively returning to and exploring from the most promising states. This approach has led to superhuman performance across a wide variety of challenging problems including Atari games and robotic control, but requires manually designing heuristics to guide exploration, which is time-consuming and infeasible in general. To resolve this, we propose Intelligent Go-Explore (IGE) which greatly extends the scope of the original Go-Explore by replacing these heuristics with the intelligence and internalized human notions of interestingness captured by giant foundation models (FMs). This provides IGE with a human-like ability to instinctively identify how interesting or promising any new state is (e.g. discovering new objects, locations, or behaviors), even in complex environments where heuristics are hard to define. Moreover, IGE offers the exciting and previously impossible opportunity to recognize and capitalize on serendipitous discoveries that cannot be predicted ahead of time. We evaluate IGE on a range of language-based tasks that require search and exploration. In Game of 24, a multistep mathematical reasoning problem, IGE reaches 100% success rate 70.8% faster than the best classic graph search baseline. Next, in BabyAI-Text, a challenging partially observable gridworld, IGE exceeds the previous SOTA with orders of magnitude fewer online samples. Finally, in TextWorld, we show the unique ability of IGE to succeed in settings requiring long-horizon exploration where prior SOTA FM agents like Reflexion completely fail. Overall, IGE combines the tremendous strengths of FMs and the powerful Go-Explore algorithm, opening up a new frontier of research into creating more generally capable agents with impressive exploration capabilities.

  • 3 authors
·
May 23, 2024

Evaluating DeepSeek V4.1 Flash-1017 for loss of control and harmful manipulation risks

As frontier language models grow increasingly capable and autonomous, independent third-party evaluations are critical for characterizing their systemic safety risks. While closed-source releases are routinely accompanied by comprehensive system cards, open-weight models receive less scrutiny regarding frontier risks. To address this gap, we present an independent safety evaluation of DeepSeek V4.1 Flash-1017, the latest version of V4.1 Flash that departs from V4 with a new architecture, scaled-up training, and strong agentic capabilities. Drawing on the EU General-Purpose AI Code of Practice, we evaluate the model across 34 benchmarks, including 5 in-house suites, spanning evaluation integrity, loss of control, and harmful manipulation. Conforming to the AEF-1 standard, we compare V4.1 Flash-1017 against V4.1 Flash, earlier DeepSeek V4 models, and leading closed-source systems (GPT-6 Astra, GPT-5.6 Sol, and Gemini 3.8 Flash). Overall, V4.1 Flash-1017 shows substantial safety improvements over the V4 generation and approaches or matches leading closed-source baselines on several dimensions, while still exhibiting notable behaviors that warrant continued attention. Building on our findings, we highlight three key observations and recommendations. First, because safety can shift and even regress across minor updates, developers should integrate safety evaluation into incremental releases. Second, as final-turn outputs and end-state checks alone cannot reliably detect loss-of-control behaviors, deployments require process-level observability across both reasoning traces and action logs. Third, because public benchmarks elicit strong evaluation awareness and face data contamination risks, developing private benchmarks is essential for trustworthy frontier evaluation.

FangcunAI Fangcun AI
·
Oct 25 2

Are Agents Ready to Teach? A Multi-Stage Benchmark for Real-World Teaching Workflows

Language agents are increasingly deployed in complex professional workflows, with tutoring emerging as a particularly high-stakes capability that remains largely unmeasured in existing benchmarks. Effective tutor agents require more than producing correct answers or executing accurate tool calls: a robust tutor must diagnose learner state, adapt support over time, make pedagogically justified decisions grounded in educational evidence, and execute interventions within realistic learning-management systems. We introduce EduAgentBench, a source-grounded benchmark for holistically evaluating tutor agents across the full scope of teaching work. It contains 150 quality-controlled tasks across three capability surfaces: professional pedagogical judgment, situated multi-turn tutoring, and Canvas-style teaching workflow completion. Tasks are constructed through a pedagogical-insight-driven pipeline and evaluated with complementary verification signals and human review. Across a comprehensive evaluation of frontier models, our findings reveal that current models are generally capable of bounded pedagogical judgment, but still fall short of professional teaching standards in situated tutoring and autonomous teaching-workflow execution. To our knowledge, EduAgentBench is the first theory-grounded and realistic benchmark for evaluating the holistic teaching capability of tutor agents, providing a measurement foundation for developing future tutor agents that can support realistic teaching work.

  • 9 authors
·
May 19

References Improve LLM Alignment in Non-Verifiable Domains

While Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) has shown strong effectiveness in reasoning tasks, it cannot be directly applied to non-verifiable domains lacking ground-truth verifiers, such as LLM alignment. In this work, we investigate whether reference-guided LLM-evaluators can bridge this gap by serving as soft "verifiers". First, we design evaluation protocols that enhance LLM-based evaluators for LLM alignment using reference outputs. Through comprehensive experiments, we show that a reference-guided approach substantially improves the accuracy of less capable LLM-judges using references from frontier models; stronger LLM-judges can also be enhanced by high-quality (i.e., human-written) references. Building on these improved judges, we demonstrate the utility of high-quality references in alignment tuning, where LLMs guided with references are used as judges to self-improve. We show that reference-guided self-improvement yields clear gains over both direct SFT on reference outputs and self-improvement with reference-free judges, achieving performance comparable to training with ArmoRM, a strong finetuned reward model. Specifically, our method achieves 73.1% and 58.7% on AlpacaEval and Arena-Hard with Llama-3-8B-Instruct, and 70.0% and 74.1% with Qwen2.5-7B, corresponding to average absolute gains of +20.2 / +17.1 points over SFT distillation and +5.3 / +3.6 points over reference-free self-improvement on AlpacaEval / Arena-Hard. These results highlight the potential of using reference-guided LLM-evaluators to enable effective LLM post-training in non-verifiable domains.

yale-nlp Yale NLP Lab
·
Feb 18 2

It's All Training: A Fully Synthetic Single-Stage Recipe for LLMs

Current pre-training datasets are derived from web crawls, with all their issues, and were not designed to support mid- and post-training pipelines--for instance, they contain little explicit reasoning. Thus, many frontier labs have begun to develop their own internal datasets, starting from state-of-the-art models, to augment their pre-training data mix, eg, with reasoning traces to address cold-start problems. While demonstratively effective, none of these datasets are public, and the effect of this so-called synthetic data on knowledge and skill acquisition of language models, including small ones, remains poorly understood. We present SYNTH, the first open-source synthetic corpus derived from 58,698 Wikipedia articles that collapses pre-, mid-, and post-training into a single training stage via structured amplification of curated encyclopedic seeds. We evaluate SYNTH by training a suite of models: a 56M tiny model (Monad), 0.3B-0.6B dense models (Baguettotron), and a 13B / 1B-active MoE. At iso-compute, SYNTH outperforms filtered web data, and our models remain competitive with similarly-sized open-weight baselines. Because SYNTH is back-translated from grounded passages, SYNTH-trained models achieve high factual precision despite 10-140x fewer training tokens, with memorization targeted by the seed corpus. These results show that synthetic datasets, including our SYNTH dataset, are capable of producing competitive generalist models from a fraction of the training data, enabling rapid iteration as the frontier advances. These findings open up possibilities for both generalist models with significantly increased data efficiency, as well as domain-specific models where no instruction or conversational data is available. Finally, we publicly release our SYNTH dataset and the suite of Baguettotron models under a permissive license, thus supporting open-source language model development.

  • 10 authors
·
Sep 28

Rethinking Self-Evolving Agents: Do We Still Need Prescribed Optimization Pipelines?

Self-evolving agents are usually built around prescribed optimization pipelines: the framework decides how to gather evidence, revise a persistent artifact, select candidates, and stop. We ask whether this task-specific procedure remains necessary when a frontier model acts as the optimizer. We introduce Open-Ended Optimization (OEO), which keeps the objective, permitted interactions, resource budget, data boundary, and evaluation fixed while allowing the optimizer to compose the improvement process online. We compare OEO with two complementary prescribed approaches: SkillOpt, a staged pipeline with bounded edits, and GEPA, a reflective evolutionary search. Across 14 head-to-head comparisons over 8 benchmark-target-model settings, GPT-5.5-driven OEO records 12 wins, 1 tie, and 1 narrow loss of 0.21 percentage points. It uses a median 34.3 percent of SkillOpt's configured target-interaction token budget. A one-shot, zero-interaction control shows that the gains are not explained by a single prior-driven rewrite. However, delegation has a capability boundary: SkillOpt outperforms OEO with a medium optimizer, and a weak optimizer cannot operate through the unchanged OEO interface. In the fully instrumented OEO-SkillOpt pair, trajectory analysis further shows that prescription changes how optimization proceeds more consistently than it changes final behavior. Together, these findings recast prescribed pipelines as capability-dependent scaffolding: essential constraints remain external, but a sufficiently capable optimizer can compose the route from measurable feedback to persistent improvement.

  • 2 authors
·
Aug 9

Ola: Pushing the Frontiers of Omni-Modal Language Model with Progressive Modality Alignment

Recent advances in large language models, particularly following GPT-4o, have sparked increasing interest in developing omni-modal models capable of understanding more modalities. While some open-source alternatives have emerged, there is still a notable lag behind specialized single-modality models in performance. In this paper, we present Ola, an Omni-modal language model that achieves competitive performance across image, video, and audio understanding compared to specialized counterparts. The core design of Ola lies in its progressive modality alignment strategy that extends the supporting modality of the language model progressively. Our training pipeline begins with the most distinct modalities: image and text, then gradually expands the skill sets of the model using speech data that connects language and audio knowledge, and video data that connects all modalities. The progressive learning pipeline also enables us to maintain a relatively small size of the cross-modal alignment data, making developing omni-modal from existing vision-language models easy and less costly. Moreover, to unlock an advanced interactive experience like GPT-4o, we further design a sentence-wise decoding solution for streaming speech generation. Extensive experiments demonstrate that Ola surpasses existing open omni-modal LLMs across all modalities while achieving highly competitive performance compared to state-of-the-art specialized models of similar sizes. We aim to make Ola a fully open omni-modal understanding solution to advance future research in this emerging field. Model weights, code, and data are open-sourced at https://github.com/Ola-Omni/Ola.

  • 7 authors
·
Feb 6, 2025 2

Discovering Novel LLM Experts via Task-Capability Coevolution

Frontier model developers aim to train models continually to possess emergent, diverse capabilities. To extend capabilities, the current pre-training and post-training paradigm requires manually starting training runs with static datasets or reward functions every time. Addressing this limitation, our work pursues the insight that open-endedness (via the coevolution of models and tasks) can discover models with increasingly novel skills in a single run. We introduce a new model development framework that extends coevolution to large language model (LLM) discovery, open-ended Assessment Coevolving with Diverse Capabilities (AC/DC). AC/DC evolves both LLMs via model merging and natural language tasks via synthetic data generation. AC/DC discovers growing archives of LLMs that surpass the capabilities of larger LLMs while taking up less GPU memory. In particular, our LLM populations achieve a broader Coverage of expertise than other curated models or baselines on downstream benchmarks, without any explicit benchmark optimization. Furthermore, AC/DC improves Coverage over time, continually innovates on tasks and models, and improves performance in multi-agent best-of-N selection. Our findings highlight the potential of coevolution as a means of discovering broader sets of capabilities from base LLMs. Overall, AC/DC brings us one step closer to a profoundly new paradigm of LLM development, where continual improvements to the diversity of model capabilities can be accelerated by leveraging existing models as stepping stones to increasingly powerful models.

  • 5 authors
·
Apr 15

Finetuning with Sampling: SFT Learns Better Than You Think

Introducing new capabilities to frontier models has long been the goal of posttraining, which predominantly employs supervised finetuning (SFT) and reinforcement learning (RL) to this end. Conventional wisdom dictates that RL enables strong generalization on new tasks without losing existing capabilities, while SFT is prone to weak generalization and catastrophic forgetting. At the same time, SFT can learn from off-policy expert data, whereas RL must rely on a model's ability to find successful trajectories with repeated sampling. In our work, we seek to leverage the strength of on-policy learning while utilizing the privileged information contained in off-policy data. However, rather than modifying the learning objective to accommodate this data, we instead tailor the data distribution to better suit the learner. We introduce a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling algorithm that progressively transforms off-policy traces to be more on-policy given a reference model for finetuning. Across tasks like scientific skill acquisition, mathematical reasoning, and open-ended expertise, our sampling algorithm enables SFT to rival prevailing posttraining techniques, often generalizing better and forgetting less than strong on-policy baselines. In addition, the resulting finetuned models exhibit strong distributional performance and are capable of learning beyond sharpening the base model distribution. At a higher level, our approach presents sampling as a model-native operator that shapes data for learnability, offering broader utility as a general-purpose primitive throughout the posttraining stack.

  • 3 authors
·
Sep 30

PropensityBench: Evaluating Latent Safety Risks in Large Language Models via an Agentic Approach

Recent advances in Large Language Models (LLMs) have sparked concerns over their potential to acquire and misuse dangerous or high-risk capabilities, posing frontier risks. Current safety evaluations primarily test for what a model can do - its capabilities - without assessing what it would do if endowed with high-risk capabilities. This leaves a critical blind spot: models may strategically conceal capabilities or rapidly acquire them, while harboring latent inclinations toward misuse. We argue that propensity - the likelihood of a model to pursue harmful actions if empowered - is a critical, yet underexplored, axis of safety evaluation. We present PropensityBench, a novel benchmark framework that assesses the proclivity of models to engage in risky behaviors when equipped with simulated dangerous capabilities using proxy tools. Our framework includes 5,874 scenarios with 6,648 tools spanning four high-risk domains: cybersecurity, self-proliferation, biosecurity, and chemical security. We simulate access to powerful capabilities via a controlled agentic environment and evaluate the models' choices under varying operational pressures that reflect real-world constraints or incentives models may encounter, such as resource scarcity or gaining more autonomy. Across open-source and proprietary frontier models, we uncover 9 alarming signs of propensity: models frequently choose high-risk tools when under pressure, despite lacking the capability to execute such actions unaided. These findings call for a shift from static capability audits toward dynamic propensity assessments as a prerequisite for deploying frontier AI systems safely. Our code is available at https://github.com/scaleapi/propensity-evaluation.

  • 7 authors
·
Nov 24, 2025

Thomson: Continual Learning of Frontier Models for SovereignAI

The development of frontier models is commonly perceived to be the exclusive remit of a small number of heavily funded players, creating an information, economic and power asymmetry between developers and the diverse user base of modern AI. Recent public discourse acknowledges this concern, calling for SovereignAI (an organisation's capability to independently build, deploy and govern AI use), but offers little concrete advice on how this can be achieved in the short term under a diversity of funding settings. We argue that frontier performance is achievable by a wide range of institutions through Continual Learning on readily available open-weight models. Unlike limited approaches such as small-scale fine-tuning, prompt engineering, or tool-augmentation of a frozen model, our approach exploits a modern mid- & post-training stack while introducing safeguards that preserve both plasticity and stability at each stage, making the minimal number of high-impact interventions on the parameters. This yields gains comparable to those typically seen across multiple successive model generations, at compute and personnel budgets substantially lower than commonly thought, making ownership of large parts of the SovereignAI stack (model, tool infrastructure, values & data privacy) viable for far more actors. We demonstrate this with Thomson, a general-purpose frontier model trained with an enhanced focus on high-stakes professional work. Thomson performs competitively with recent frontier models across agentic tasks, safety, legal, tax & multilingualism, and large-scale Deep Research. Evaluations show a distinctive π-shaped pattern: distinct improvements across a wide range of capabilities, including those not explicitly targeted, while almost completely eliminating the forgetting problem common to narrow domain adaptation.

  • 26 authors
·
Aug 26

Efficient Prediction of Pass@k Scaling in Large Language Models

Assessing the capabilities and risks of frontier AI systems is a critical area of research, and recent work has shown that repeated sampling from models can dramatically increase both. For instance, repeated sampling has been shown to increase their capabilities, such as solving difficult math and coding problems, but it has also been shown to increase their potential for harm, such as being jailbroken. Such results raise a crucial question for both capability and safety forecasting: how can one accurately predict a model's behavior when scaled to a massive number of attempts, given a vastly smaller sampling budget? This question is directly relevant to model providers, who serve hundreds of millions of users daily, and to governmental regulators, who seek to prevent harms. To answer this questions, we make three contributions. First, we find that standard methods for fitting these laws suffer from statistical shortcomings that hinder predictive accuracy, especially in data-limited scenarios. Second, we remedy these shortcomings by introducing a robust estimation framework, which uses a beta-binomial distribution to generate more accurate predictions from limited data. Third, we propose a dynamic sampling strategy that allocates a greater budget to harder problems. Combined, these innovations enable more reliable prediction of rare risks and capabilities at a fraction of the computational cost.

  • 7 authors
·
Oct 5, 2025

Large Language Models Often Know When They Are Being Evaluated

If AI models can detect when they are being evaluated, the effectiveness of evaluations might be compromised. For example, models could have systematically different behavior during evaluations, leading to less reliable benchmarks for deployment and governance decisions. We investigate whether frontier language models can accurately classify transcripts based on whether they originate from evaluations or real-world deployment, a capability we call evaluation awareness. To achieve this, we construct a diverse benchmark of 1,000 prompts and transcripts from 61 distinct datasets. These span public benchmarks (e.g., MMLU, SWEBench), real-world deployment interactions, and agent trajectories from scaffolding frameworks (e.g., web-browsing agents). Frontier models clearly demonstrate above-random evaluation awareness (Gemini-2.5-Pro reaches an AUC of 0.83), but do not yet surpass our simple human baseline (AUC of 0.92). Furthermore, both AI models and humans are better at identifying evaluations in agentic settings compared to chat settings. Additionally, we test whether models can identify the purpose of the evaluation. Under multiple-choice and open-ended questioning, AI models far outperform random chance in identifying what an evaluation is testing for. Our results indicate that frontier models already exhibit a substantial, though not yet superhuman, level of evaluation-awareness. We recommend tracking this capability in future models.

  • 5 authors
·
May 28, 2025

FrontierOR: Benchmarking LLMs' Capacity for Efficient Algorithm Design in Large-Scale Optimization

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used for optimization modeling and solver-code generation, yet practical operations research and optimization problems often require a harder capability: designing scalable algorithms that exploit problem structure and outperform direct formulation-and-solve baselines. Existing benchmarks are limited to small or simplified examples far below real-world scale and complexity. We introduce FrontierOR, among the first benchmarks to systematically evaluate LLM-based efficient algorithm design for realistic large-scale optimization problems. FrontierOR includes 180 tasks derived from methodologically diverse papers published in top-tier operations research venues, each with standardized instances and a hidden, expert-verified evaluation suite. We evaluate seven LLMs spanning frontier, cost-effective, and open-source models both in one-shot and test-time evolution settings. The results reveal that frontier models still struggle to move from executable formulations to efficient optimization algorithms: the strongest one-shot model outperforms Gurobi in only 31% of cases in both solution quality and computational efficiency, and even strong coding agents with test-time evolution achieve only 50% on selected hard tasks. FrontierOR establishes a practical evaluation platform for LLM-based optimization algorithm design, which enables future LLMs and agents to be systematically tested on whether they can move beyond correct formulation toward a feasible, high-quality, and efficient algorithm. Code and data are publicly released at https://github.com/Minw913/FrontierOR.

  • 27 authors
·
May 29

h1: A Taste of the Bitter Lesson in Automated Theorem Proving

While progress in informal mathematics has come largely from scaling the chain-of-thought and agentic reasoning of frontier language models, formal theorem proving has increasingly relied on human-designed workflows around these models, such as planning, decomposition, and orchestrating specialized provers. This raises a bitter-lesson question: can a simple agentic loop that scales test-time compute match these workflows? The answer matters as formal verification must scale to keep up with frontier models producing research mathematics, yet new workflows rarely settle it, as their gains are often confounded with stronger models or more compute. We study this question with h1, a simple harness that gives a model an efficient interface to Lean 4 and keeps it working through verifier feedback and self-reflection, without imposing a decomposition or search structure. h1 reaches state-of-the-art results on PutnamBench, FATE-X, and FormalConjectures100-Solved, settles eight open problems in FormalConjectures, and, at matched models, matches or outperforms specialized workflows such as Goedel-Architect and AlphaProof Nexus, surprisingly showing that a single attempt (pass@1) can often scale to solve open problems. Through ablations and matched-model comparisons with Claude Code and AxProverBase, we find that simplicity alone is not enough: an efficient Lean interface largely determines cost and solve rate. We thus recommend that future work evaluate frontier models with efficient execution feedback before prescribing workflows, at the risk of bitter lessons.

meta-llama Meta Llama
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Oct 24 2

AIRTBench: Measuring Autonomous AI Red Teaming Capabilities in Language Models

We introduce AIRTBench, an AI red teaming benchmark for evaluating language models' ability to autonomously discover and exploit Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning (AI/ML) security vulnerabilities. The benchmark consists of 70 realistic black-box capture-the-flag (CTF) challenges from the Crucible challenge environment on the Dreadnode platform, requiring models to write python code to interact with and compromise AI systems. Claude-3.7-Sonnet emerged as the clear leader, solving 43 challenges (61% of the total suite, 46.9% overall success rate), with Gemini-2.5-Pro following at 39 challenges (56%, 34.3% overall), GPT-4.5-Preview at 34 challenges (49%, 36.9% overall), and DeepSeek R1 at 29 challenges (41%, 26.9% overall). Our evaluations show frontier models excel at prompt injection attacks (averaging 49% success rates) but struggle with system exploitation and model inversion challenges (below 26%, even for the best performers). Frontier models are far outpacing open-source alternatives, with the best truly open-source model (Llama-4-17B) solving 7 challenges (10%, 1.0% overall), though demonstrating specialized capabilities on certain hard challenges. Compared to human security researchers, large language models (LLMs) solve challenges with remarkable efficiency completing in minutes what typically takes humans hours or days-with efficiency advantages of over 5,000x on hard challenges. Our contribution fills a critical gap in the evaluation landscape, providing the first comprehensive benchmark specifically designed to measure and track progress in autonomous AI red teaming capabilities.

  • 4 authors
·
Jun 17, 2025

Calibrated Decisions at Scale: Converting Police Crash Narratives into Probabilistic Crash Variables with a System One Model (Jev)

Crash datasets that carry an investigator narrative hold information the coded fields omit. Coding those narratives at scale has been blocked by three obstacles. Frontier large language models are costly at that scale, their generated text cannot be verified, and no rule says how much output a human must check. This paper formulates narrative coding as gated, typed decisions answered by Jev, a System One model that returns probabilities over analyst-defined options and generates no text. A screen covered 499,500 Texas narratives and 195,857 were coded with a 27-question schema. Cost is governed by schema size rather than narrative length. The probabilities are audited against coded fields and against 2,416 blinded human judgments drawn under a stated sampling design. Two frontier large language models are benchmarked on the same records. Against human labels the typed model attains an F1 of 0.908. One frontier model gains 0.059 and the other is indistinguishable from it. Calibration varies by model rather than by paradigm, so each model must be audited. Recalibration on the same labels reduces calibration error by a factor of 3.3. Agreement with coded fields understates fidelity to the narrative by a median of 0.26 in kappa. A resolution-floor bound covers any model that reports probabilities on a discrete grid. A review budget over flagged records gives the records a human must read per variable and per year. Adding the calibrated variables to the coded fields raises the injury and fatal crashes attributed to nine factors by 10,747 per year.

  • 2 authors
·
Sep 20

Scaling Large Language Model Training on Frontier with Low-Bandwidth Partitioning

Scaling up Large Language Model(LLM) training involves fitting a tremendous amount of training parameters across a limited number of workers. However, methods like ZeRO-3 that drastically reduce GPU memory pressure often incur heavy communication to ensure global synchronization and consistency. Established efforts such as ZeRO++ use secondary partitions to avoid inter-node communications, given that intra-node GPU-GPU transfer generally has more bandwidth and lower latency than inter-node connections. However, as more capable infrastructure like Frontier, equipped with AMD GPUs, emerged with impressive computing capability, there is a need for investigations on the hardware topology and to develop targeted strategies to improve training efficiency. In this work, we propose a collection of communication and optimization strategies for ZeRO++ to reduce communication costs and improve memory utilization. In this paper, we propose a 3-level hierarchical partitioning specifically for the current Top-1 supercomputing cluster, Frontier, which aims at leveraging various bandwidths across layers of communications (GCD-GCD, GPU-GPU, and inter-node) to reduce communication overhead. For a 20B GPT model, we observe a 1.71x increase in TFLOPS per GPU when compared with ZeRO++ up to 384 GCDs and a scaling efficiency of 0.94 for up to 384 GCDs. To the best of our knowledge, our work is also the first effort to efficiently optimize LLM workloads on Frontier AMD GPUs.

  • 7 authors
·
Jan 7, 2025

iCoder-27B: Recursive AI-Led Development of Frontier Industrial Coding Model

Recursive AI, the prospect of AI taking an increasingly complete role in building and improving AI, is a crown jewel of AI for AI. Although recursive self-development has become practical for small models, bounded tasks, and fixed time budgets, a more consequential realization of this ambition, i.e., developing a release-ready, frontier-competitive model, remains far more challenging. In this work, we ask how little human involvement is sufficient for an agent to develop a frontier model. We concentrate human input into a high-density, low-frequency interface: experts encode objectives, stage scaffolds, permission boundaries, and operating procedures as reusable research skills, while the agent instantiates these priors, selects experiments, diagnoses outcomes, and revises the training strategy. In the challenging domain of industrial coding, the agent evolves data and coordinates SFT, on-policy self-distillation, and reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards, ultimately producing iCoder, a 27B model for RTL design and GPU kernel optimization. Across seven benchmarks, iCoder leads RTLLM, outperforming GPT-5.5 and Claude-Opus-4.8; ranks second on CVDP and KernelBench L2, exceeding GPT-5.5 by 16 points; and ties Claude-Opus-4.8 for the best TritonBench result. Exploratory case studies further show iCoder's competitive iterative RTL and GPU-kernel optimization with substantially fewer tokens. These results chart an engineering path toward recursive self-improvement, in which humans distill the principles of model building, agents operationalize them through evidence-driven experimentation, and each generation of AI becomes a more capable architect of the next.

  • 12 authors
·
Aug 27

Frontier-Eng: Benchmarking Self-Evolving Agents on Real-World Engineering Tasks with Generative Optimization

Current LLM agent benchmarks, which predominantly focus on binary pass/fail tasks such as code generation or search-based question answering, often neglect the value of real-world engineering that is often captured through the iterative optimization of feasible designs. To this end, we introduce Frontier-Eng, a human-verified benchmark for generative optimization -- an iterative propose-execute-evaluate loop in which an agent generates candidate artifacts, receives executable verifier feedback, and revises them under a fixed interaction budget -- spanning 47 tasks across five broad engineering categories. Unlike previous suites, Frontier-Eng tasks are grounded in industrial-grade simulators and verifiers that provide continuous reward signals and enforce hard feasibility constraints under constrained budgets. We evaluate eight frontier language models using representative search frameworks, finding that while Claude 4.6 Opus achieves the most robust performance, the benchmark remains challenging for all models. Our analysis suggests a dual power-law decay in improvement frequency (sim 1/iteration) and magnitude (sim 1/improvement count). We further show that although width improves parallelism and diversity, depth remains crucial for hard-won improvements under a fixed budget. Frontier-Eng establishes a new standard for assessing the capacity of AI agents to integrate domain knowledge with executable feedback to solve complex, open-ended engineering problems.

  • 21 authors
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Apr 13

ExploitBench: A Capability Ladder Benchmark for LLM Cybersecurity Agents

Exploitation is not a binary event. It is a ladder of acquiring progressive capabilities, from executing a single buggy line of code to taking full control of the target. However, existing LLM security benchmarks treat a crash as exploitation success. That single binary outcome collapses the hard parts of exploitation: the transition from triggering a bug to constructing reusable primitives and control. We present ExploitBench, a capability-graded benchmark that decomposes exploitation into 16 measurable flags, from coverage and crash through sandbox primitives, arbitrary read/write, control-flow hijack, and arbitrary code execution. Each capability is verified by a deterministic oracle that uses a per-run randomized challenge-response for primitives, differential execution against ground-truth binaries to measure progress, and a signal-handler proof for code execution. We instantiate ExploitBench on 41 V8 bugs because V8 is both widely deployed and exploitation-hardened. We report three arms: <model,env> as the primary measurement of model-environment capability, <model,env, adaptive coaching> as a secondary arm that adds adaptive coaching to test whether targeted feedback shifts outcomes, and <model,env,harness> as an ablation that swaps in the model's native CLI to check whether vendor-side optimizations increase exploitation capabilities. Our results show a sharp capability split between publicly deployed frontier models and the private frontier. Across the 8 publicly deployed models tested, reaching the vulnerable code and triggering a crash is routine, but arbitrary code execution is not. The private model shows arbitrary code execution on approximately half. Overall, results suggest that exploit construction against hardened targets is an emerging frontier capability.

  • 2 authors
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May 12

Vibe Reasoning: Eliciting Frontier AI Mathematical Capabilities -- A Case Study on IMO 2025 Problem 6

We introduce Vibe Reasoning, a human-AI collaborative paradigm for solving complex mathematical problems. Our key insight is that frontier AI models already possess the knowledge required to solve challenging problems -- they simply do not know how, what, or when to apply it. Vibe Reasoning transforms AI's latent potential into manifested capability through generic meta-prompts, agentic grounding, and model orchestration. We demonstrate this paradigm through IMO 2025 Problem 6, a combinatorial optimization problem where autonomous AI systems publicly reported failures. Our solution combined GPT-5's exploratory capabilities with Gemini 3 Pro's proof strengths, leveraging agentic workflows with Python code execution and file-based memory, to derive both the correct answer (2112) and a rigorous mathematical proof. Through iterative refinement across multiple attempts, we discovered the necessity of agentic grounding and model orchestration, while human prompts evolved from problem-specific hints to generic, transferable meta-prompts. We analyze why capable AI fails autonomously, how each component addresses specific failure modes, and extract principles for effective vibe reasoning. Our findings suggest that lightweight human guidance can unlock frontier models' mathematical reasoning potential. This is ongoing work; we are developing automated frameworks and conducting broader evaluations to further validate Vibe Reasoning's generality and effectiveness.

  • 4 authors
·
Dec 22, 2025

Can Current Agents Close the Discovery-to-Application Gap? A Case Study in Minecraft

Discovering causal regularities and applying them to build functional systems--the discovery-to-application loop--is a hallmark of general intelligence, yet evaluating this capacity has been hindered by the vast complexity gap between scientific discovery and real-world engineering. We introduce SciCrafter, a Minecraft-based benchmark that operationalizes this loop through parameterized redstone circuit tasks. Agents must ignite lamps in specified patterns (e.g., simultaneously or in timed sequences); scaling target parameters substantially increases construction complexity and required knowledge, forcing genuine discovery rather than reliance on memorized solutions. Evaluating frontier models including GPT-5.2, Gemini-3-Pro, and Claude-Opus-4.5 under a general-purpose code agent scaffold, we find that all plateau at approximately 26% success rate. To diagnose these failures, we decompose the loop into four capacities--knowledge gap identification, experimental discovery, knowledge consolidation, and knowledge application--and design targeted interventions whose marginal contributions serve as proxies for corresponding gaps. Our analysis reveals that although the general knowledge application capability still remains as the biggest gap across all models, for frontier models the knowledge gap identification starts to become a major hurdle--indicating the bottleneck is shifting from solving problems right to raising the right problems for current AI. We release SciCrafter as a diagnostic probe for future research on AI systems that navigate the full discovery-to-application loop.

  • 12 authors
·
Apr 26

SciOrch: Learning to Orchestrate Expert LLMs for Solving Frontier Multimodal Scientific Reasoning Tasks

Frontier scientific reasoning remains a major challenge for large language models (LLMs), where even the strongest commercial systems fall short of expert-level performance. A closer look at model behavior reveals substantial complementarity that single-model evaluation hides: different frontier models excel on different question types, and no single model captures the full picture. We present SciOrch, a framework that trains a lightweight 8B model to orchestrate frontier LLMs for scientific reasoning. The orchestrator decomposes each question, delegates sub-problems to selected commercial models through API calls, and synthesizes a final answer. Training such an orchestrator is fundamentally harder than conventional agentic RL: each action triggers an API call that is expensive in both dollar cost and latency, making standard online rollouts infeasible. We address this with MCTS-based approach, producing diverse orchestration trajectories, extracting per-node single-turn samples, and optimizing the orchestrator with GRPO-style training. On a 240-question test set spanning SGI-Reasoning and Scientists' First Exam, SciOrch reaches 56.66% average accuracy, outperforming the strongest single commercial model by 3.74% and the strongest multi-agent baseline by 3.33%. It also attains the best accuracy on both SGI and SFE with less than half the API cost of typical multi-agent methods.

  • 9 authors
·
Jun 14 3

Beyond Final Scores: A Systematic Evaluation of Agents for Long-Horizon AI Research and Development

Autonomous agents are increasingly capable of improving models, systems, and other technical artifacts through long-horizon experimentation. To understand the current state of this capability, however, evaluation must go beyond final scores, which neither reveal where progress is gained or lost nor indicate whether accumulated experience improves later decisions. We therefore present a systematic evaluation of seven frontier models on 36 long-horizon tasks based on a new framework that uses rule-based metrics to characterize within-run behavior through Solution Framing, Execution, and Feedback Control and controlled comparisons to assess experience reuse within and across tasks. The results show that current agents operate more like engineering optimizers than fully autonomous researchers: they can formulate and implement practical solutions, but their performance varies substantially across runs, their strongest solutions mainly adapt or combine established techniques, and genuine methodological novelty remains rare. Detailed analysis reveals that observed performance is shaped by multiple factors, including distinct process bottlenecks behind similar final outcomes, experience reuse that can help or mislead subsequent decisions, and harness designs that affect performance stability. These findings suggest concrete directions for improving model training, inference-time strategies, experience management, and harness design.

meituan-longcat LongCat
·
Aug 12 2

Weak-to-Strong On-Policy Distillation

On-policy distillation (OPD), which aligns a student with the teacher's token-level distribution on the student's own rollouts, is an effective paradigm for transferring capabilities across LLMs. Prevailing approaches assume a teacher at least as capable as the student: they either distill a larger model into a smaller one, which fails at the frontier where no larger teacher exists, or consolidate multiple domain experts trained from a shared base, which requires costly training at the student's scale. We introduce Weak-to-Strong On-Policy Distillation (W2S-OPD), a simple yet effective OPD framework that improves the strong student by distilling from multiple weak models. W2S-OPD constructs a proxy teacher in logit space from a contrast pair of a positive and a negative model, both smaller than the student and cheap to obtain. Their logit difference isolates the capability direction, which is added to the student's own base model, yielding a proxy teacher that couples this direction while staying distributionally adjacent to the student. The student then distills it by minimizing the per-token reverse KL on its own rollouts. We instantiate the contrast pair as i) a post-RL expert against its pre-RL initialization, isolating the skill RL instills, ii) a larger against a smaller base model, isolating the capability from scale, and iii) a small base model with correct versus wrong hints, isolating the instance-level direction toward the solution. Across four math and three code benchmarks, W2S-OPD outperforms OPD, enables the student to surpass the domain teacher, and keeps improving the student even when every supervision source is weaker. Analysis shows different contrasts yield distinct signals: the post-RL and hint contrasts emphasize reasoning frameworks, while the scale contrast emphasizes the solving procedure. Our code will be available at https://github.com/Yu-Fangxu/W2S-OPD.

CaPtain: A Pipeline for Post-Training Code-as-Policy Robot Agents

Across coding, web, and tool-use tasks, language-model agents are now routinely trained with the same recipe: supervised fine-tuning (SFT) to learn the interface, then multi-turn reinforcement learning (RL) to master it. Code-as-policy (CaP) casts robot manipulation in the same form, as the policy writes code against robot APIs and reads back the results, so the same recipe should apply. Yet existing CaP agents sidestep training: they either prompt closed frontier models or delegate manipulation to pre-trained vision-language-action models (VLAs) and high-level skills, while small open vision-language models (VLMs) fail outright. We present CaPtain, an open post-training pipeline that turns a small open VLM into a capable CaP agent, with no VLA, frontier model, or privileged state at test time. CaPtain trains and deploys the policy inside CaPtain-Harness, which exposes low-level perception, geometry, and guarded-motion primitives across simulation and real hardware. We first align the base model via SFT on synthetic trajectories generated with GPT-6 Astra, then apply multi-turn RL. Multi-turn RL must credit tens of agent requests, whose physical effects often surface turns later, from a single end-of-episode outcome. We therefore introduce a physical critic that reads privileged simulator state, never seen by the policy, and credits each request by how much it changes the predicted chance of success. Starting from Qwen3.5-4B (0% zero-shot), CaPtain-4B reaches 55.4% held-out LIBERO success after SFT and 73.8% after RL. On LIBERO-PRO, it reaches 78.5%, surpassing several frontier-model agents, and its RL gains persist across three perturbation suites (+17.6 to +21.2 points). Without target-domain training, it attains 83.3% on SimplerEnv WidowX, exceeds frontier models on CaP-Bench, and runs on a real robot after simulation-only adaptation. We release all code, data, and model weights.

It's Not the Capability: Harness Sensitivity Is Non-Monotone Across LLM Agent Tiers

A prevalent assumption in LLM agent deployment holds that more structured harnesses universally improve reliability, and that higher-capability models need proportionally less structural guidance -- together implying a monotone inverse relationship between model capability tier and optimal harness complexity. We test this hypothesis through a controlled 432-run experiment crossing six models across four capability tiers with three harness conditions (light, balanced, strict) on HEAT-24, a 24-task synthetic benchmark with git-based workspace verification. Our results refute the monotone inverse relationship on two fronts. First, for the frontier chat model evaluated (Gemini 2.5 Flash), increased harness verbosity lowers VTSR by 29-38 percentage points -- a harness-complexity paradox. Second, for the frontier reasoning model evaluated (Qwen3.5-122B, extended thinking enabled), strict harness achieves the highest VTSR (91.7%) and the lowest latency, the opposite of the prediction. Within the constrained tier, a 2B model (Gemma4:e2B) matches strong-open-tier stability at 91.7% across all harnesses. Because each tier is represented by a single model in this study, these results should be interpreted as model-specific observations; harness sensitivity appears non-monotone across the models evaluated, and depends critically on model type (chat vs. reasoning). We introduce a six-label failure taxonomy showing that format_violation dominates capable-model failures while wrong_file dominates low-capability failures, and we derive practical tier-aware harness selection guidelines.

  • 1 authors
·
May 25

Business Arena: Benchmarking LLM Agents in a Realistic Marketplace

Running a business is a challenging form of intelligent work. Operators must infer opportunities from partial signals, commit capital under uncertainty, adapt to delayed outcomes in a changing market, and satisfy regulatory obligations before trading legally. Frontier LLM agents can increasingly complete complex workflows, yet business-related capabilities are rarely evaluated in existing agent benchmarks. We introduce Business Arena, a controlled environment where an AI agent runs a cross-border shop, buying from suppliers and selling to buyers over a long horizon. We ground the arena in real Alibaba.com sourcing data and market conditions calibrated from authoritative sources. Delayed and coupled consequences make individual business decisions difficult to judge, but their combined outcome is measurable through profit. Because profit alone cannot explain why an agent succeeds or fails, we compare agents with human-designed strategies to estimate available opportunity, use skill-level metrics to reveal underlying strengths and weaknesses, and trace realized gains and losses to the actions that produced them. We use mechanism ablations to establish that strong results reflect genuine business intelligence rather than neglect or simulator-specific shortcuts. We evaluate 15 frontier models and find a ninefold difference in mean final net worth. Even the best model falls behind human-designed strategies, indicating that business operation remains challenging for LLM agents. Skill-level analysis reveals operating styles, from margin-focused premium sellers to high-turnover wholesalers and customer-service specialists, while action-level attribution identifies the sourcing, pricing, and recovery decisions that create or destroy value. Together, Business Arena takes a first step toward a realistic and trustworthy testbed for evaluating end-to-end business agents.

alibabagroup alibaba
·
Aug 8 5

Evaluating Gemini Robotics Policies in a Veo World Simulator

Generative world models hold significant potential for simulating interactions with visuomotor policies in varied environments. Frontier video models can enable generation of realistic observations and environment interactions in a scalable and general manner. However, the use of video models in robotics has been limited primarily to in-distribution evaluations, i.e., scenarios that are similar to ones used to train the policy or fine-tune the base video model. In this report, we demonstrate that video models can be used for the entire spectrum of policy evaluation use cases in robotics: from assessing nominal performance to out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization, and probing physical and semantic safety. We introduce a generative evaluation system built upon a frontier video foundation model (Veo). The system is optimized to support robot action conditioning and multi-view consistency, while integrating generative image-editing and multi-view completion to synthesize realistic variations of real-world scenes along multiple axes of generalization. We demonstrate that the system preserves the base capabilities of the video model to enable accurate simulation of scenes that have been edited to include novel interaction objects, novel visual backgrounds, and novel distractor objects. This fidelity enables accurately predicting the relative performance of different policies in both nominal and OOD conditions, determining the relative impact of different axes of generalization on policy performance, and performing red teaming of policies to expose behaviors that violate physical or semantic safety constraints. We validate these capabilities through 1600+ real-world evaluations of eight Gemini Robotics policy checkpoints and five tasks for a bimanual manipulator.

deepmind Deepmind
·
Dec 11, 2025 2

PHMForge: Evaluating LLM Agents on Industrial Prognostics through MCP-Native, Algorithm-Grounded Tools

LLM agents are beginning to invoke industrial asset-management tools through the Model Context Protocol (MCP), yet whether they can act reliably on this substrate for safety-critical Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) is unanswered. Prior benchmarks conflate protocol fluency with reasoning, instrumentation failures with agent failures, and tool use with tool retrieval. We introduce PHMForge, an evaluation environment that closes each conflation. PHMForge ships 99 SME-authored scenarios across eight industrial asset classes spanning rotating equipment, aero-engines, and lithium-ion cells, on public datasets including NASA PCoE, served through 39 MCP-native tools wrapping published PHM algorithms (C-MAPSS, ISO~10816, Arrhenius capacity-fade models, time-series foundation models). Krippendorff's αin [0.74,,0.82] on a 30-scenario stratified rotating-equipment/aero-engine sample; the battery extension is single-rater. Across three agentic frameworks and six LLM backbones, the strongest configuration reaches 80.8\% pass@1, with the residual gap concentrated in orchestration and tool-sequencing errors. Crucially, an architectural ablation shows that replacing MCP execution with text-based Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) over telemetry-equivalent evidence collapses Remaining Useful Life pass-all-3 from 100\% to 20\% (5/5 vs.\ 1/5) on the battery class, exposing the structural limits of static retrieval for prognostic computation. Trajectory decomposition shows orchestration errors dominate failures across backbones, while schema-invalid tool calls concentrate in smaller open-weight models. Frontier LLMs are stronger at calling tools than at planning when to call them. PHMForge is open-sourced with deterministic evaluators, a public leaderboard, and a datasheet.

  • 8 authors
·
May 7

Can LLMs Trust Appropriately? Evaluating Calibrated Reliance on Imperfect Partners

Large language models increasingly collaborate with humans and peer AI agents whose contributions may be incomplete, inconsistent, or incorrect. Effective collaboration requires calibrated trust, whereby decisions to rely on, verify, or assist a partner adapt rationally as empirical evidence accumulates. We investigate whether models translate partner evidence into appropriate reliance policies. We introduce a benchmark of 324 scenarios across 23 collaboration categories. Each scenario involves three sequential decisions with explicit transition dynamics, feedback emissions, and cost schedules, permitting exact analytical evaluation of choices against their expected consequences over the remaining interaction. Evaluating seven models alongside 36 controlled-history probes, we dissociate evidence sensitivity from normatively appropriate action. While the strongest frontier model approaches near-optimal decisions, other models exhibit recurring pathologies: procuring excessive safeguards, purchasing verification tests with zero expected value of information, prioritizing immediate savings over cooperative learning, and misallocating assistance to suboptimal channels. Supplying explicit posterior distributions resolves certain errors while introducing new failure modes. Calibrated trust in autonomous agents critically demands coupling empirical evidence with forward-looking decision utility.

  • 2 authors
·
Oct 24

Sakana Fugu Technical Report

The capabilities of frontier Large Language Models (LLMs) continue to advance, with different providers increasingly specializing in distinct domains. This raises a natural next objective: how to combine the individual specializations of various LLMs into a collectively intelligent system. To this end, we report the development of Sakana Fugu, a family of orchestrator models that harness and amplify the capabilities of an LLM agent team. Fugu models are themselves language models trained to understand user queries and dynamically devise agentic scaffolds to solve them. Through these adaptive scaffolds, Fugu accesses performance beyond any individual LLM agent, achieving state-of-the-art results compared to other publicly accessible models across a range of challenging tasks, including SWE-Bench Pro, Terminal Bench, LiveCodeBench, GPQA-Diamond, Humanity's Last Exam, and CharXiv Reasoning. We release two models: Fugu, which balances performance with latency for everyday use, and Fugu-Ultra, which prioritizes answer quality on the hardest problems. We describe our training paradigm, which encompasses large-scale fine-tuning, evolutionary algorithms, and reinforcement learning approaches, along with the infrastructure and core design principles that turn these methods into a production system. We hope this report encourages further research into multi-agent systems and dynamic, query-adaptive agentic scaffolds as a path toward the next frontier of AI capabilities, accessed through collective intelligence.

  • 14 authors
·
Jun 22

Agentic Routing: The Harness-Native Data Flywheel

Large language model agents are increasingly executed not by a single model call, but by an execution harness that manages observation, context, control, action, state, and verification. At the same time, frontier and open models are becoming structurally specialized: a model that is strong at code editing, long-context recovery, tool use, mathematical reasoning, or low-latency response may not dominate on the other axes. This makes model selection inside an agent a core systems problem rather than a per-query serving trick. Existing routing methods mostly optimize single-turn cost-quality trade-offs and therefore miss the execution state, intermediate failures, and feedback loops that make agents different from chat completion. We propose Harness-Native agentic routing, a step-level routing paradigm that selects either a single best-fit model for cost-effective execution or multiple complementary models for ensemble-style accuracy improvement, conditioned on the full harness state. The key insight is that every routing decision naturally produces a structured data record -- consisting of the query, harness state, model choice or model set, execution trace, outcome, and cost -- whose labels are supplied by the environment rather than by the router itself. These records form a harness-native data flywheel: execution traces train better routers and harness-native models, which improve cost-quality trade-offs and generate more traces under the same budget. We instantiate this idea in OpenSquilla with a four-layer routing stack, an open LightGBM cold-start ranker, and a staged router-model path that turns logged arena records into progressively stronger routing policies. The report studies singleton and multi-model routing on agentic benchmarks including DRACO and PinchBench, and argues that agentic routing is not merely cost control, but a data engine for agent-native training.

  • 15 authors
·
Jul 12

OpenSeeker-v2: Pushing the Limits of Search Agents with Informative and High-Difficulty Trajectories

Deep search capabilities have become an indispensable competency for frontier Large Language Model (LLM) agents, yet their development remains dominated by industrial giants. The typical industry recipe involves a highly resource-intensive pipeline spanning pre-training, continual pre-training (CPT), supervised fine-tuning (SFT), and reinforcement learning (RL). In this report, we show that when fueled with informative and high-difficulty trajectories, a simple SFT approach could be surprisingly powerful for training frontier search agents. By introducing three simple data synthesis modifications: scaling knowledge graph size for richer exploration, expanding the tool set size for broader functionality, and strict low-step filtering, we establish a stronger baseline. Trained on merely 10.6k data points, our OpenSeeker-v2 achieves state-of-the-art performance across 4 benchmarks (30B-sized agents with ReAct paradigm): 46.0% on BrowseComp, 58.1% on BrowseComp-ZH, 34.6% on Humanity's Last Exam, and 78.0% on xbench, surpassing even Tongyi DeepResearch trained with heavy CPT+SFT+RL pipeline, which achieves 43.4%, 46.7%, 32.9%, and 75.0%, respectively. Notably, OpenSeeker-v2 represents the first state-of-the-art search agent within its model scale and paradigm to be developed by a purely academic team using only SFT. We are excited to open-source the OpenSeeker-v2 model weights and share our simple yet effective findings to make frontier search agent research more accessible to the community.

  • 7 authors
·
May 4 3

LLMs Can Tackle High Energy Theoretical Physics, yet Gaps Remain: Part I, Quantum Field Theory

Beyond math and code, Large language models (LLMs) are beginning to tackle problems that have traditionally required substantial training for theoretical physicists, but it remains unclear how far this capability extends and where it might break. As a first step toward pushing LLMs in high-energy theoretical physics, we introduce QFT-Bench, a benchmark of 75 graduate- to research-level problems requiring extensive reasoning and derivation across core Quantum Field Theory (QFT) subareas. Each question has a well-defined target and closed-form reference answer. Evaluation combines symbolic verification with LLM-based judge. Across 39 proprietary and open-source models, frontier models already demonstrate substantial capabilities on nontrivial QFT calculations, with the strongest models exceeding 95% accuracy. At the same time, clear gaps remain. Even strong models still make errors in calculations, conventions, and instruction following, while weaker models often fail at the level of physical concepts or derivations. We further monitor models' CoTs and show that current models exhibit nontrivial reasoning unfaithfulness, i.e., they could reach correct answers but the reasoning itself does not justify and logically support them. These results provide a quantitative assessment of current LLM capabilities in QFT and a first step toward broader evaluation in high-energy theoretical physics.

  • 6 authors
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Oct 22

Riemann-Bench: A Benchmark for Moonshot Mathematics

Recent AI systems have achieved gold-medal-level performance on the International Mathematical Olympiad, demonstrating remarkable proficiency at competition-style problem solving. However, competition mathematics represents only a narrow slice of mathematical reasoning: problems are drawn from limited domains, require minimal advanced machinery, and can often reward insightful tricks over deep theoretical knowledge. We introduce , a private benchmark of 25 expert-curated problems designed to evaluate AI systems on research-level mathematics that goes far beyond the olympiad frontier. Problems are authored by Ivy League mathematics professors, graduate students, and PhD-holding IMO medalists, and routinely took their authors weeks to solve independently. Each problem undergoes double-blind verification by two independent domain experts who must solve the problem from scratch, and yields a unique, closed-form solution assessed by programmatic verifiers. We evaluate frontier models as unconstrained research agents, with full access to coding tools, search, and open-ended reasoning, using an unbiased statistical estimator computed over 100 independent runs per problem. Our results reveal that all frontier models currently score below 10\%, exposing a substantial gap between olympiad-level problem solving and genuine research-level mathematical reasoning. By keeping the benchmark fully private, we ensure that measured performance reflects authentic mathematical capability rather than memorization of training data.

  • 4 authors
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Apr 7

GTA-2: Benchmarking General Tool Agents from Atomic Tool-Use to Open-Ended Workflows

The development of general-purpose agents requires a shift from executing simple instructions to completing complex, real-world productivity workflows. However, current tool-use benchmarks remain misaligned with real-world requirements, relying on AI-generated queries, dummy tools, and limited system-level coordination. To address this, we propose GTA-2, a hierarchical benchmark for General Tool Agents (GTA) spanning atomic tool use and open-ended workflows. Built on real-world authenticity, it leverages real user queries, deployed tools, and multimodal contexts. (i) GTA-Atomic, inherited from our prior GTA benchmark, evaluates short-horizon, closed-ended tool-use precision. (ii) GTA-Workflow introduces long-horizon, open-ended tasks for realistic end-to-end completion. To evaluate open-ended deliverables, we propose a recursive checkpoint-based evaluation mechanism that decomposes objectives into verifiable sub-goals, enabling unified evaluation of both model capabilities and agent execution frameworks (i.e., execution harnesses). Experiments reveal a pronounced capability cliff: while frontier models already struggle on atomic tasks (below 50%), they largely fail on workflows, with top models achieving only 14.39% success. Further analysis shows that checkpoint-guided feedback improves performance, while advanced frameworks such as Manus and OpenClaw substantially enhance workflow completion, highlighting the importance of execution harness design beyond the underlying model capacity. These findings provide guidance for developing reliable personal and professional assistants. Dataset and code will be available at https://github.com/open-compass/GTA.

  • 10 authors
·
Apr 16 2

From Reasoning to Action: Benchmarking Frontier AI Models on LIBERO-10 Robot Manipulation Tasks

Recent advances in frontier AI models have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in visual understanding, reasoning, planning, and tool use, raising the possibility of using general-purpose AI models for robot manipulation without task-specific training. However, their manipulation capabilities have not been systematically evaluated on standardized robotics benchmarks. In this report, we present a unified closed-loop manipulation framework for evaluating frontier AI models on the LIBERO-10 benchmark. Our framework enables models to control a robot directly through visual observations, robot proprioception, and structured tool calls, primarily by specifying target end-effector poses and gripper commands, without task-specific fine-tuning or pretrained manipulation skills. We evaluate six frontier AI models, including GPT-6 Astra, GPT-6.1 Sol, GPT-6 Luna, Claude Opus 5, Claude Opus 5.5, and Gemini-4 Argon, across three reasoning effort levels, resulting in 18 configurations and 1,800 evaluation episodes. Our results show that GPT-6 Astra achieves the highest success rate of 44%, followed by Gemini-4 Argon at 43%. Increasing reasoning effort generally improves manipulation performance, but the benefits vary across models and come at additional inference cost. We also observe substantial differences across tasks, with models performing relatively well on object placement tasks but struggling with precise spatial arrangements and complex multi-step interactions. These findings demonstrate both the potential and limitations of frontier AI models for robot manipulation, highlighting the challenges of translating reasoning capabilities into reliable physical actions. We release our evaluation framework and experimental results to support reproducible benchmarking and future research on reasoning-based robot manipulation.

  • 3 authors
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Oct 20

Internal Safety Collapse in Frontier Large Language Models

This work identifies a critical failure mode in frontier large language models (LLMs), which we term Internal Safety Collapse (ISC): under certain task conditions, models enter a state in which they continuously generate harmful content while executing otherwise benign tasks. We introduce TVD (Task, Validator, Data), a framework that triggers ISC through domain tasks where generating harmful content is the only valid completion, and construct ISC-Bench containing 53 scenarios across 8 professional disciplines. Evaluated on JailbreakBench, three representative scenarios yield worst-case safety failure rates averaging 95.3% across four frontier LLMs (including GPT-5.2 and Claude Sonnet 4.5), substantially exceeding standard jailbreak attacks. Frontier models are more vulnerable than earlier LLMs: the very capabilities that enable complex task execution become liabilities when tasks intrinsically involve harmful content. This reveals a growing attack surface: almost every professional domain uses tools that process sensitive data, and each new dual-use tool automatically expands this vulnerability--even without any deliberate attack. Despite substantial alignment efforts, frontier LLMs retain inherently unsafe internal capabilities: alignment reshapes observable outputs but does not eliminate the underlying risk profile. These findings underscore the need for caution when deploying LLMs in high-stakes settings. Source code: https://github.com/wuyoscar/ISC-Bench

  • 10 authors
·
Mar 4 1

OccuBench: Evaluating AI Agents on Real-World Professional Tasks via Language World Models

AI agents are expected to perform professional work across hundreds of occupational domains (from emergency department triage to nuclear reactor safety monitoring to customs import processing), yet existing benchmarks can only evaluate agents in the few domains where public environments exist. We introduce OccuBench, a benchmark covering 100 real-world professional task scenarios across 10 industry categories and 65 specialized domains, enabled by Language World Models (LWMs) that simulate domain-specific environments through LLM-driven tool response generation. Our multi-agent synthesis pipeline automatically produces evaluation instances with guaranteed solvability, calibrated difficulty, and document-grounded diversity. OccuBench evaluates agents along two complementary dimensions: task completion across professional domains and environmental robustness under controlled fault injection (explicit errors, implicit data degradation, and mixed faults). We evaluate 15 frontier models across 8 model families and find that: (1) no single model dominates all industries, as each has a distinct occupational capability profile; (2) implicit faults (truncated data, missing fields) are harder than both explicit errors (timeouts, 500s) and mixed faults, because they lack overt error signals and require the agent to independently detect data degradation; (3) larger models, newer generations, and higher reasoning effort consistently improve performance. GPT-5.2 improves by 27.5 points from minimal to maximum reasoning effort; and (4) strong agents are not necessarily strong environment simulators. Simulator quality is critical for LWM-based evaluation reliability. OccuBench provides the first systematic cross-industry evaluation of AI agents on professional occupational tasks.

Qwen Qwen
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Apr 12 3

E-Commerce Bench: Evaluating LLM Agents on Long-Horizon Autonomous Business Operation

Long-horizon agentic tasks go beyond chaining short tasks over more interaction turns. Their evolving dynamic environments and long-range dependencies require Large Language Models (LLMs) to continually explore, learn from experience, and adapt their policies over thousands of steps. We introduce E-Commerce Bench, the first open-source benchmark that integrates multi-round counterpart negotiation and dynamic events into a year-long business operation. Over a 365-day year, an LLM agent concurrently runs multiple online stores, researching the market, negotiating with suppliers to source inventory, optimizing sales strategies, fulfilling orders, handling returns, and managing cash flow to maximize its end-of-year total assets. To construct a realistic merchant-side operating environment, the product and supplier data are derived from a real e-commerce platform, while a year-long calendar of promotions, natural disasters, and supply-chain shocks continually reshapes demand. For reproducibility, both sides of the market are deterministic: customer purchases and returns follow a fixed demand model, while a negotiation kernel determines supplier pricing, concessions, and decisions, with an LLM used only to verbalize them. We evaluate 18 frontier models across seven dimensions, including year-end assets, and find that no single model dominates. GPT-5.6 Sol earns the most, growing the 100,000 opening stake into 1,431,425, yet it ranks 16th of 18 on fraud avoidance and trails Fable5 in operational efficiency. Among open-weight models, Qwen3.8-Max-Preview leads with 416,252, 38% above GLM 5.2 (high), and achieves the strongest learning over the horizon, progressively bargaining down prices across repeated orders. Our code is available at https://github.com/QwenLM/E-CommerceBench.

Qwen Qwen
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Aug 30 2

SHADE-Arena: Evaluating Sabotage and Monitoring in LLM Agents

As Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed as autonomous agents in complex and long horizon settings, it is critical to evaluate their ability to sabotage users by pursuing hidden objectives. We study the ability of frontier LLMs to evade monitoring and achieve harmful hidden goals while completing a wide array of realistic tasks. We evaluate a broad range of frontier LLMs using SHADE (Subtle Harmful Agent Detection & Evaluation)-Arena, the first highly diverse agent evaluation dataset for sabotage and monitoring capabilities of LLM agents. SHADE-Arena consists of complex pairs of benign main tasks and harmful side objectives in complicated environments. Agents are evaluated on their ability to complete the side task without appearing suspicious to an LLM monitor. When measuring agent ability to (a) complete the main task, (b) complete the side task, and (c) avoid detection, we find that the best performing frontier models score 27% (Claude 3.7 Sonnet) and 15% (Gemini 2.5 Pro) as sabotage agents when overseen by Claude 3.6 Sonnet. For current frontier models, success on the side task relies heavily on having access to a hidden scratchpad that is not visible to the monitor. We also use SHADE-Arena to measure models' monitoring abilities, with the top monitor (Gemini 2.5 Pro) achieving an AUC of 0.87 at distinguishing benign and malign transcripts. We find that for now, models still struggle at sabotage due to failures in long-context main task execution. However, our measurements already demonstrate the difficulty of monitoring for subtle sabotage attempts, which we expect to only increase in the face of more complex and longer-horizon tasks.

  • 12 authors
·
Jul 7, 2025

SciResearcher: Scaling Deep Research Agents for Frontier Scientific Reasoning

Frontier scientific reasoning is rapidly emerging as a key foundation for advancing AI agents in automated scientific discovery. Deep research agents offer a promising approach to this challenge. These models develop robust problem-solving capabilities through post-training on information-seeking tasks, which are typically curated via knowledge graph construction or iterative web browsing. However, these strategies face inherent limitations in frontier science, where domain-specific knowledge is scattered across sparse and heterogeneous academic sources, and problem solving requires sophisticated computation and reasoning far beyond factual recall. To bridge this gap, we introduce SciResearcher, a fully automated agentic framework for frontier-science data construction. SciResearcher synthesizes diverse conceptual and computational tasks grounded in academic evidence, while eliciting information acquisition, tool-integrated reasoning, and long-horizon capabilities. Leveraging the curated data for supervised fine-tuning and agentic reinforcement learning, we develop SciResearcher-8B, an agent foundation model that achieves 19.46% on the HLE-Bio/Chem-Gold benchmark, establishing a new state of the art at its parameter scale and surpassing several larger proprietary agents. It further achieves 13-15% absolute gains on SuperGPQA-Hard-Biology and TRQA-Literature benchmarks. Overall, SciResearcher introduces a new paradigm for automated data construction for frontier scientific reasoning and offers a scalable path toward future scientific agents.

  • 8 authors
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May 25

Incompressible Knowledge Probes: Estimating Black-Box LLM Parameter Counts via Factual Capacity

Closed-source frontier labs do not disclose parameter counts. Storing F facts requires at least F/(bits per parameter) weights, so factual recall lower-bounds parameter count--an intrinsic, serving-independent signal, though (as we show) a coarse one. We introduce Incompressible Knowledge Probes (IKPs), a benchmark of 1,400 factual questions spanning 7 tiers of obscurity, designed to isolate knowledge that cannot be derived by reasoning or compressed by architectural improvements. We score with no hallucination penalty (lambda = 0: IKP accuracy is simply the fraction of probed facts answered correctly), which removes both the penalty hyperparameter and the per-tier flooring choice; a full lambda x flooring ablation shows the calibration is robust across scoring choices while individual estimates are not, motivating the no-penalty default. We calibrate a log-linear mapping from IKP accuracy to parameter count on 93 open-weight models (135M-1,600B) spanning 19 vendors, achieving R^2 = 0.910; leave-one-out cross-validation confirms generalization (median fold error 1.48x, 72% within 2x, 86% within 3x). The instrument is deliberately coarse--its 90% prediction interval spans ~3x in either direction, wider than inference economics--so IKP recovers order-of-magnitude effective capacity and relative rankings, not precise parameter counts. For Mixture-of-Experts models, total parameters predict knowledge (R^2 = 0.67) better than active parameters (R^2 = 0.41). We evaluate 201 models from 27 vendors on a curated probe set (1,311 of 1,400 probes surviving name-collision and label-ambiguity filters) and report effective knowledge capacity for all major proprietary frontier models as prediction bands rather than point estimates; for heavily safety-tuned models these are lower bounds, since refusal policy can suppress tens of percentage points of otherwise-answerable capacity.

  • 1 authors
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Jul 4

Lying Is Just a Phase: The Hidden Alignment Transition in Language Model Scaling

Scaling laws predict loss from compute but not how capabilities interact. We measure the coupling between reasoning and truthfulness across 63 base models from 16 families and find a regime change invisible to loss curves: below a family-dependent critical scale N_c, capabilities anticorrelate; above it, they cooperate. N_c approx 3.5B parameters [2.9B, 13.4B] (bootstrap 95% CI), but model size is not the only variable that determines phase. Architecture, data curation, and training recipe each shift N_c independently: curated training eliminated the coupling dip between Qwen generations (0.025 to 0.830 at matched scale), Gemma-4 at 4B achieves coupling 0.871, characteristic of 13B+ standard-trained models, through distillation and architectural innovation, and Phi at 1B matches web-trained coupling at 10B through data curation alone. Width normalization eliminates the anticorrelation across all tested families, supporting an output-projection bottleneck. Internally, 38 of 40 models show zero competing attention heads. A sparse-regression ODE cross-predicts held-out Llama-2 at 5.6% error. The diagnostic requires no model internals -- only public benchmark scores across a model family. The cooperative regime extends to the frontier (r = +0.72, 34 models, 10 labs). Code, data, and an open-source activation-steering tool for any open-weight model are released alongside an interactive dashboard that diagnoses any model's coupling phase, suggests concrete interventions (data curation, width, benchmark rotation), and provides ODE scaling predictions, frontier diagnostics, and eigenstructure analysis: https://zehenlabs.com/cape/.

  • 1 authors
·
May 12

LLM Agents Are Latent Context Managers: Eliciting Self-Managed Context via a Proprioceptive Dashboard

Long-horizon tool agents are bottlenecked by how their context grows toward the limits of the context window. Recent systems make context management agent- or system-controlled, but they either learn a compression policy that discards evidence or manage context in a layer the agent never sees. We argue both leave a more basic gap unaddressed. Frontier language models are proprioceptively blind to their own context. From the prompt alone they cannot see how large, how old, or how used each block is, the signals a keep-or-drop decision needs. We hypothesize that competent context management is already latent in capable models, and that what is missing is not a learned policy but an interface exposing this state. We introduce VISTA (Visible Internal State for Tool Agents), a training-free, model-agnostic layer that represents working memory as typed, addressable blocks, surfaces a runtime dashboard of per-block token usage, recency, and access history, and archives blocks as recoverable full-fidelity payloads. On LOCA-Bench, BrowseComp-Plus, and GAIA, the same untrained interface transfers across million-, 100K-, and 10K-scale trajectories. On LOCA-Bench it improves four backbones and lifts Gemini-3-Flash from 22.7 to 50.7%. The lift grows with context pressure and transfers across backbones. Ablations further confirm that the dashboard matters beyond archive and recovery tools.

  • 3 authors
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Jun 28

Apodex Discovery: Reality Benchmarks and Environments for Evaluating and Building Discoverative Artificial Intelligence

Apollo did not reach the Moon merely because its engineers could solve difficult equations. It succeeded by turning a distant ambition into a mission architecture of explicit objectives, simulation, verification, and repeated correction. AI now faces a similar transition: frontier models can solve difficult tasks once the problem, tools, and success criteria are specified, yet consequential real-world challenges rarely arrive in an executable or verifiable form. We introduce Apodex Discovery, a framework for building and evaluating discoverative AI through the heavy-duty solver, a system comprising a foundation model, harness, tools, and control policies that pursues extended, stateful, verifiable investigations. It has three core components. First, a problem-scouting process surveyed 561 industries across 16 sectors, assembled 423 high-value real-world problems, and selected 20 for the initial release. Second, a common environment-task-episode abstraction provides data, tools, constraints, feedback, trajectory recording, and verification of intermediate artifacts and final submissions. Third, HDS6 evaluates Tools, Repair, Alternatives, Coherence, Evidence, and Scope independently of final-task success. In AAV capsid design, Apodex surpassed the published state of the art by 7% across viability, tropism, structure prediction, and generative design. In drug repurposing and reformulation, a task-specific biomedical environment improved the mean normalized prediction score of GPT-5.5 and GPT-5.6-sol by 2.5 and 7.6 points over the same closed-book backbone. Controlled ablations show that the fixed TRACES episode interface enables attribution of performance differences to specific solver components. Apodex Discovery moves AI evaluation beyond predefined benchmarks toward verifiable investigations aimed at genuine discovery.

apodex Apodex
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Aug 10 2

The AI Scientist: Towards Fully Automated Open-Ended Scientific Discovery

One of the grand challenges of artificial general intelligence is developing agents capable of conducting scientific research and discovering new knowledge. While frontier models have already been used as aids to human scientists, e.g. for brainstorming ideas, writing code, or prediction tasks, they still conduct only a small part of the scientific process. This paper presents the first comprehensive framework for fully automatic scientific discovery, enabling frontier large language models to perform research independently and communicate their findings. We introduce The AI Scientist, which generates novel research ideas, writes code, executes experiments, visualizes results, describes its findings by writing a full scientific paper, and then runs a simulated review process for evaluation. In principle, this process can be repeated to iteratively develop ideas in an open-ended fashion, acting like the human scientific community. We demonstrate its versatility by applying it to three distinct subfields of machine learning: diffusion modeling, transformer-based language modeling, and learning dynamics. Each idea is implemented and developed into a full paper at a cost of less than $15 per paper. To evaluate the generated papers, we design and validate an automated reviewer, which we show achieves near-human performance in evaluating paper scores. The AI Scientist can produce papers that exceed the acceptance threshold at a top machine learning conference as judged by our automated reviewer. This approach signifies the beginning of a new era in scientific discovery in machine learning: bringing the transformative benefits of AI agents to the entire research process of AI itself, and taking us closer to a world where endless affordable creativity and innovation can be unleashed on the world's most challenging problems. Our code is open-sourced at https://github.com/SakanaAI/AI-Scientist

  • 6 authors
·
Aug 12, 2024 11

Soohak: A Mathematician-Curated Benchmark for Evaluating Research-level Math Capabilities of LLMs

Following the recent achievement of gold-medal performance on the IMO by frontier LLMs, the community is searching for the next meaningful and challenging target for measuring LLM reasoning. Whereas olympiad-style problems measure step-by-step reasoning alone, research-level problems use such reasoning to advance the frontier of mathematical knowledge itself, emerging as a compelling alternative. Yet research-level math benchmarks remain scarce because such problems are difficult to source (e.g., Riemann Bench and FrontierMath-Tier 4 contain 25 and 50 problems, respectively). To support reliable evaluation of next-generation frontier models, we introduce Soohak, a 439-problem benchmark newly authored from scratch by 64 mathematicians. Soohak comprises two subsets. On the Challenge subset, frontier models including Gemini-3-Pro, GPT-5, and Claude-Opus-4.5 reach 30.4%, 26.4%, and 10.4% respectively, leaving substantial headroom, while leading open-weight models such as Qwen3-235B, GPT-OSS-120B, and Kimi-2.5 remain below 15%. Notably, beyond standard problem solving, Soohak introduces a refusal subset that probes a capability intrinsic to research mathematics: recognizing ill-posed problems and pausing rather than producing confident but unjustified answers. On this subset, no model exceeds 50%, identifying refusal as a new optimization target that current models do not directly address. To prevent contamination, the dataset will be publicly released in late 2026, with model evaluations available upon request in the interim.

EleutherAI EleutherAI
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May 8 3

DeFAb: A Verifiable Benchmark for Defeasible Abduction in Foundation Models

A rule-based logic solver resolves every instance in our benchmark in under 50 microseconds with 100% accuracy; the best frontier language model reaches 65% at best and drops to 23.5% under rendering-robust evaluation (worst case over four surface renderings). We introduce DeFAb (Defeasible Abduction Benchmark), a dataset and generation pipeline that converts four decades of publicly funded knowledge bases into formally grounded instances for defeasible abduction: constructing hypotheses that explain anomalies by overriding defaults while preserving unrelated expectations. Because every hypothesis must pass polynomial-time checks for valid derivation, conservativity, and minimality, DeFAb makes logical rigor the instrument for measuring creativity and theoretical reasoning, scoring the disciplined construction of theory revisions rather than fluent but theory-destroying prose. The pipeline pairs taxonomic hierarchies (OpenCyc, YAGO, Wikidata) with behavioral property graphs (ConceptNet, UMLS) to produce 372,648+ instances across 33.75M materialized rules from 18 sources, in three levels with polynomial-time verifiable gold standards. Four frontier models do not reliably internalize defeasible reasoning: rendering-robust Level 2 accuracy is 7.8-23.5%; chain-of-thought variance (~36 pp) exceeds any inter-model gap; and a matched contamination control isolates a +19.4 pp Level 3 gap. We further release DeFAb-Hard (a 235-instance Level 3 difficulty variant; best model 53.3% vs 100% symbolic) and CONJURE (a kernel-verified transformative-creativity variant of 560 Lean 4/Mathlib instances whose gold answers are definitions the proof kernel did not previously contain, judge-free verifier; a pilot finds zero novel concepts). The same verifier doubles as an exact reward for preference optimization (DPO, RLVR/GRPO). Released under MIT at https://huggingface.co/datasets/PatrickAllenCooper/DeFAb.

  • 2 authors
·
Jun 16

DiagnosticIQ: A Benchmark for LLM-Based Industrial Maintenance Action Recommendation from Symbolic Rules

Monitoring complex industrial assets relies on engineer-authored symbolic rules that trigger based on sensor conditions and prompt technicians to perform corrective actions. The bottleneck is not detection but response: translating rules into maintenance steps requires asset-specific knowledge gained through years of practice. We investigate whether LLMs can serve as decision support for this rule-to-action step and introduce , a benchmark of 6{,}690 expert-validated multiple-choice questions from 118 rule-action pairs across 16 asset types. We contribute (i) a symbolic-to-MCQA pipeline normalizing rules to Disjunctive Normal Form with embedding-based distractor sampling, (ii) five variants probing distinct failure modes (Pro, Pert, Verbose, Aug, Rationale), and (iii) a benchmark of 29 LLMs and 4 embedding baselines. A human evaluation (9 practitioners, mean 45.0\%) confirms requires specialist knowledge beyond operational experience. Three findings stand out. The frontier has closed: the top three LLMs lie within one Macro point, with Bradley-Terry Elo placing claude-opus-4-6 30 points above the next model. Yet \,Pro exposes brittleness, with every model losing 13--60\% relative accuracy under distractor expansion. \,Aug exposes pattern-matching: under condition inversion, frontier models still select the original answer 49--63\% of the time. The deployment bottleneck is not capability but calibration: frontier models handle template-style fault detection but break under structural perturbation.

ibm IBM
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May 8 2

HydroAgent: Closing the Gap Between Frontier LLMs and Human Experts in Hydrologic Model Calibration via Simulator-Grounded RL

Calibrating distributed hydrologic models is a critical bottleneck across operational water resources management - streamflow prediction, reservoir operation, drought monitoring, infrastructure design, and flood forecasting all depend on it. Each basin demands an expert to translate hydrograph signatures into adjustments of a high-dimensional parameter vector, and the resulting workflow does not transfer between watersheds. We ask: can frontier large language model (LLM) agents replace the human hydrologic modeler, and if not, what would it take? We benchmark nine frontier LLM agents - Claude Opus 4.6/4.7, Sonnet 4.6, GPT-5/5.4/5.4-pro, and Gemini 2.5-pro/3.1-pro/3-flash - on the operational CREST distributed hydrologic model used by the U.S. National Weather Service for flash-flood forecasting. Best-of-twenty-rounds Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) across four held-out gauges spanning 329-40,792 km2 ranges from -0.16 (GPT-5.4) to 0.75 (Sonnet 4.6); the ceiling reproduces across all three vendors and capability tiers, with the strongest models concentrating in the 0.65-0.75 band, and no model reaches the human-expert reference except Opus-4.7 on one gauge. We argue this gap is not a parameter-count problem but a domain-grounding problem. We then propose HYDROAGENT, fine-tuning open-weight Qwen3-4B with supervised fine-tuning on 2,576 expert calibration trajectories and Group-Relative Policy Optimization using NSE as a verifiable reward from online CREST simulations - reinforcement learning with simulation feedback (RLSF). For Earth system science, a small domain-tuned policy with simulator-in-the-loop RL is a more compute-efficient and physically faithful path than scaling generic frontier models, and the multi-modal richness of Earth data - remote sensing, in-situ time series, and forecaster narrative - makes domain agents a leveraged direction for AI in physical science.

  • 7 authors
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May 17

A Threshold Exceedance Framework for CBRN Uplift Evaluation in Frontier Language Models

As frontier language models advance, policymakers and model developers need methods for assessing whether model access materially increases a non-expert actor's ability to plan high-consequence Chemical, Biological, Radiological, or Nuclear (CBRN) misuse relative to public tools alone. Existing CBRN evaluations differ in non-expert definitions, threat scope, baselines, scoring rubrics, and decision rules, making results difficult to compare across studies. We introduce a Threshold Exceedance Criteria (TEC) framework that decomposes an uplift study into independently executable components: determining non-expert participant eligibility, defining the CBRN threat scope for the study, and statistically estimating material uplift. We then operationalize the TEC framework in a large-scale empirical study using a design that determines two forms of uplift: generative (where a model assists plan creation from scratch) and revisionist (where a model assists refinement of an existing plan). The study produced attack plans across the CBRN domains, which we evaluated through subject-matter-expert review to estimate generative and revisionist uplift. Applying the framework, our empirical study revealed domain heterogeneity: under this controlled pre-release evaluation, model-assisted plans sometimes received expert-equivalent instructional ratings, but confirmed material uplift was limited to the radiological domain. These findings informed mitigation and deployment-governance decisions rather than characterizing deployed model behavior. We conclude with methodological lessons for future CBRN uplift evaluations, emphasizing prespecified criteria, explicit baselines, separation of generative and revisionist estimates, and careful distinction between preliminary screening signals and confirmed risk determinations.

  • 11 authors
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Jul 12

Frontier Coding Agents Can Now Implement an AlphaZero Self-Play Machine Learning Pipeline For Connect Four That Performs Comparably to an External Solver

Forecasting when AI systems will become capable of meaningfully accelerating AI research is a central challenge for AI safety. Existing benchmarks measure broad capability growth, but may not provide ample early warning signals for recursive self-improvement. We propose measuring AI's capability to autonomously implement end-to-end machine learning pipelines from past AI research breakthroughs, given a minimal task description. By providing a concise task description instead of the full prior work as reference, we hope to better elicit emerging AI research taste. We introduce a proof-of-concept benchmark in which frontier coding agents autonomously implement an AlphaZero-style machine learning pipeline for Connect Four on consumer hardware within a three-hour budget, and we evaluate the resulting game AIs in a round-robin tournament anchored to the Pascal Pons Connect Four solver. Across four agents with eight trials each, we find substantial differentiation: Claude Opus 4.7 won as first-mover against Pons in seven of eight trials, statistically significantly better than the other agents tested, none of which exceeded two of eight. The task, which no frontier agent could reliably complete when we began development in January of 2026, is now near-saturation. Our evaluation also surfaced anomalous behavior in GPT-5.4, which consistently used far less of its allocated time budget than other agents. A follow-up 16-trial probe using shorter, less evaluation-coded prompts substantially increased GPT-5.4's time-budget usage, consistent with but not diagnostic of sandbagging; Bradley-Terry ratings across probe conditions showed only directional differences, despite significant differences in time-budget usage. We release our data, code, and prompts to support reproduction and extension.

  • 3 authors
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Apr 28

Why Has Predicting Downstream Capabilities of Frontier AI Models with Scale Remained Elusive?

Predictable behavior from scaling advanced AI systems is an extremely desirable property. Although a well-established literature exists on how pretraining performance scales, the literature on how particular downstream capabilities scale is significantly muddier. In this work, we take a step back and ask: why has predicting specific downstream capabilities with scale remained elusive? While many factors are certainly responsible, we identify a new factor that makes modeling scaling behavior on widely used multiple-choice question-answering benchmarks challenging. Using five model families and twelve well-established multiple-choice benchmarks, we show that downstream performance is computed from negative log likelihoods via a sequence of transformations that progressively degrade the statistical relationship between performance and scale. We then reveal the mechanism causing this degradation: downstream metrics require comparing the correct choice against a small number of specific incorrect choices, meaning accurately predicting downstream capabilities requires predicting not just how probability mass concentrates on the correct choice with scale, but also how probability mass fluctuates on specific incorrect choices with scale. We empirically study how probability mass on the correct choice co-varies with probability mass on incorrect choices with increasing compute, suggesting that scaling laws for incorrect choices might be achievable. Our work also explains why pretraining scaling laws are commonly regarded as more predictable than downstream capabilities and contributes towards establishing scaling-predictable evaluations of frontier AI models.

  • 9 authors
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Jun 6, 2024

Building Production-Ready Probes For Gemini

Frontier language model capabilities are improving rapidly. We thus need stronger mitigations against bad actors misusing increasingly powerful systems. Prior work has shown that activation probes may be a promising misuse mitigation technique, but we identify a key remaining challenge: probes fail to generalize under important production distribution shifts. In particular, we find that the shift from short-context to long-context inputs is difficult for existing probe architectures. We propose several new probe architecture that handle this long-context distribution shift. We evaluate these probes in the cyber-offensive domain, testing their robustness against various production-relevant shifts, including multi-turn conversations, static jailbreaks, and adaptive red teaming. Our results demonstrate that while multimax addresses context length, a combination of architecture choice and training on diverse distributions is required for broad generalization. Additionally, we show that pairing probes with prompted classifiers achieves optimal accuracy at a low cost due to the computational efficiency of probes. These findings have informed the successful deployment of misuse mitigation probes in user-facing instances of Gemini, Google's frontier language model. Finally, we find early positive results using AlphaEvolve to automate improvements in both probe architecture search and adaptive red teaming, showing that automating some AI safety research is already possible.

  • 7 authors
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Jan 16 3

The Growing Pains of Frontier Models: When Leaderboards Stop Separating and What to Measure Next

Leaderboards rank frontier models on independent axes but do not reveal whether capabilities reinforce or trade off across releases -- and at the frontier, this interaction is the more informative signal. We decompose paired SWE-bench and GPQA Diamond scores into a population coupling trend and per-release residual (h-field) that diagnoses capability emphasis and identifies which measurement or stress test is most informative next. Across 34 models from 10 labs (2024--2026), capabilities cooperate (r = +0.72, p < 10^{-6}), but cooperation varies by lab and over time: DeepSeek reversed from reasoning-rich to coding-first (h: +11.2 to -4.7, 15.9-pp swing); Google maintains consistent reasoning emphasis; Anthropic oscillates between coding excursions and recovery. Cooperation is not static -- it cascades. Six open-weight architectures confirm a second capability transition at 30--72B, and SWE-bench is now saturating while HLE and instruction-following retain discriminatory spread -- signaling the next axis rotation. We provide a three-level playbook (locate, diagnose, rotate), a per-lab measurement-priority table, and seven falsifiable predictions with timestamped criteria for the next 12 months of frontier releases. Per-lab coupling slopes vary 5times (Google 1.15 vs. DeepSeek 0.23), quantifying how efficiently each recipe converts coding gains into reasoning. Five April 2026 releases confirm the diagnostic out of sample (r rises from +0.72 to +0.75). An interactive dashboard provides phase classification with actionable recommendations, h-field diagnostics, per-lab coupling trajectories, ODE-based scaling predictions, benchmark rotation guidance, self-steering demo, and live tracking of all seven predictions: https://zehenlabs.com/cape/.

  • 1 authors
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May 12

Kierston & KierstonBench: Simulation of Allentown, PA and Evaluation of Language Models in Crime Investigation and Surveillance Tasks

Large language models are candidates for collecting and analyzing records in criminal investigations and mass surveillance. Their capability and accuracy in this work cannot currently be measured. Real deployments lack the ground truth needed to score a model's conclusions, and no benchmark evaluates these capabilities in a simulated environment. We present Kierston, a city-scale simulation engine, and KierstonBench, a benchmark that tests these capabilities against known simulated events. Kierston models approximately 125,000 residents of Allentown, Pennsylvania, generating their daily activities and the telecommunications, financial, administrative and license-plate records that surveillance and investigative systems collect about them. These records derive from a common behavioral timeline and are distributed across sources representing separate providers. Models investigate through a restricted records interface, linking observations across sources without access to the underlying simulation. The benchmark comprises 32 task families covering record linkage, routine reconstruction, incident investigation and assessment of deceptive accounts. In an evaluation of sixteen language models, most could not perform records investigation and submitted identifications the records did not support. A small number of frontier models solved most of the tasks and abstained when evidence was insufficient. In some cases these models still fell for common deceptions and assumptions, and none replaced an investigator.

  • 2 authors
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Nov 2 3