Daily Papers

The vast majority of biological sequences encode unknown functions and bear little resemblance to experimentally characterized proteins, limiting both our understanding of biology and our ability to harness functional potential for the bioeconomy. Predicting enzyme function from sequence remains a central challenge in computational biology, complicated by low sequence diversity and imbalanced label support in publicly available datasets. Models trained on these data can overestimate performance and fail to generalize. To address this, we introduce GRIMM (Genetic stRatification for Inference in Molecular Modeling), a benchmark for enzyme function prediction that employs genetic stratification: sequences are clustered by similarity and clusters are assigned exclusively to training, validation, or test sets. This ensures that sequences from the same cluster do not appear in multiple partitions. GRIMM produces multiple test sets: a closed-set test with the same label distribution as training (Test-1) and an open-set test containing novel labels (Test-2), serving as a realistic out-of-distribution proxy for discovering novel enzyme functions. While demonstrated on enzymes, this approach is generalizable to any sequence-based classification task where inputs can be clustered by similarity. By formalizing a splitting strategy often used implicitly, GRIMM provides a unified and reproducible framework for closed- and open-set evaluation. The method is lightweight, requiring only sequence clustering and label annotations, and can be adapted to different similarity thresholds, data scales, and biological tasks. GRIMM enables more realistic evaluation of functional prediction models on both familiar and unseen classes and establishes a benchmark that more faithfully assesses model performance and generalizability.

Large language models (LLMs) are having transformative impacts across a wide range of scientific fields, particularly in the biomedical sciences. Just as the goal of Natural Language Processing is to understand sequences of words, a major objective in biology is to understand biological sequences. Genomic Language Models (gLMs), which are LLMs trained on DNA sequences, have the potential to significantly advance our understanding of genomes and how DNA elements at various scales interact to give rise to complex functions. To showcase this potential, we highlight key applications of gLMs, including functional constraint prediction, sequence design, and transfer learning. Despite notable recent progress, however, developing effective and efficient gLMs presents numerous challenges, especially for species with large, complex genomes. Here, we discuss major considerations for developing and evaluating gLMs.

Long-horizon tasks are common in real-world robotic deployments, yet failure detection for such tasks remains underexplored. Detecting failures in long-horizon robotic tasks is particularly challenging because failure onset is often ambiguous and dense temporal annotations are typically unavailable. We present Foresight, a failure detection framework that monitors manipulation trajectories using latent representations from an action-conditioned world model. Foresight is trained using only final task-level success or failure labels. By leveraging predictive world-model embeddings, our method provides a unified framework for failure detection across different policies. We further use functional conformal prediction (FCP) to calibrate detection thresholds adaptively. We evaluate Foresight with state-of-the-art vision-language-action policies in simulation on LIBERO-Long, ManiSkill-Long, and BEHAVIOR-1K, compare it against state-of-the-artfailure detection methods, and validate it on real robots with three long-horizon tasks on a ReactorX-200 arm and one task on a Franka arm. Our results suggest that action-conditioned world-model embeddings provide a scalable representation for reliable failure monitoring in long-horizon manipulation.

Hamiltonian matrix prediction is pivotal in computational chemistry, serving as the foundation for determining a wide range of molecular properties. While SE(3) equivariant graph neural networks have achieved remarkable success in this domain, their substantial computational cost--driven by high-order tensor product (TP) operations--restricts their scalability to large molecular systems with extensive basis sets. To address this challenge, we introduce SPHNet, an efficient and scalable equivariant network, that incorporates adaptive SParsity into Hamiltonian prediction. SPHNet employs two innovative sparse gates to selectively constrain non-critical interaction combinations, significantly reducing tensor product computations while maintaining accuracy. To optimize the sparse representation, we develop a Three-phase Sparsity Scheduler, ensuring stable convergence and achieving high performance at sparsity rates of up to 70%. Extensive evaluations on QH9 and PubchemQH datasets demonstrate that SPHNet achieves state-of-the-art accuracy while providing up to a 7x speedup over existing models. Beyond Hamiltonian prediction, the proposed sparsification techniques also hold significant potential for improving the efficiency and scalability of other SE(3) equivariant networks, further broadening their applicability and impact. Our code can be found at https://github.com/microsoft/SPHNet.

Predicting spatial gene expression from H&E histology offers a scalable and clinically accessible alternative to sequencing, but realizing clinical impact requires models that generalize across cancer types and capture biologically coherent signals. Prior work is often limited to per-cancer settings and variance-based evaluation, leaving functional relevance underexplored. We introduce HistoPrism, an efficient transformer-based architecture for pan-cancer prediction of gene expression from histology. To evaluate biological meaning, we introduce a pathway-level benchmark, shifting assessment from isolated gene-level variance to coherent functional pathways. HistoPrism not only surpasses prior state-of-the-art models on highly variable genes , but also more importantly, achieves substantial gains on pathway-level prediction, demonstrating its ability to recover biologically coherent transcriptomic patterns. With strong pan-cancer generalization and improved efficiency, HistoPrism establishes a new standard for clinically relevant transcriptomic modeling from routinely available histology.

In this work, we present a network-specific approach for predicting brain responses to complex multimodal movies, leveraging the Yeo 7-network parcellation of the Schaefer atlas. Rather than treating the brain as a homogeneous system, we grouped the seven functional networks into four clusters and trained separate multi-subject, multi-layer perceptron (MLP) models for each. This architecture supports cluster-specific optimization and adaptive memory modeling, allowing each model to adjust temporal dynamics and modality weighting based on the functional role of its target network. Our results demonstrate that this clustered strategy significantly enhances prediction accuracy across the 1,000 cortical regions of the Schaefer atlas. The final model achieved an eighth-place ranking in the Algonauts Project 2025 Challenge, with out-of-distribution (OOD) correlation scores nearly double those of the baseline model used in the selection phase. Code is available at https://github.com/Corsi01/algo2025.

Protein Language Models (PLMs) have emerged as performant and scalable tools for predicting the functional impact and clinical significance of protein-coding variants, but they still lag experimental accuracy. Here, we present a novel fine-tuning approach to improve the performance of PLMs with experimental maps of variant effects from Deep Mutational Scanning (DMS) assays using a Normalised Log-odds Ratio (NLR) head. We find consistent improvements in a held-out protein test set, and on independent DMS and clinical variant annotation benchmarks from ProteinGym and ClinVar. These findings demonstrate that DMS is a promising source of sequence diversity and supervised training data for improving the performance of PLMs for variant effect prediction.

Predicting peptide--major histocompatibility complex I (pMHC-I) binding affinity remains challenging due to extreme allelic diversity (sim30,000 HLA alleles), severe data scarcity for most alleles, and noisy experimental measurements. Current methods particularly struggle with underrepresented alleles and quantitative binding prediction. We test whether domain-specific continued pre-training of protein language models is beneficial for their application to pMHC-I binding affinity prediction. Starting from ESM Cambrian (300M parameters), we perform masked-language modeling (MLM)-based continued pre-training on HLA-associated peptides (epitopes), testing two input formats: epitope sequences alone versus epitopes concatenated with HLA heavy chain sequences. We then fine-tune for functional IC_{50} binding affinity prediction using only high-quality quantitative data, avoiding mass spectrometry biases that are inherited by existing methods.

While world models have emerged as a cornerstone of embodied intelligence by enabling agents to reason about environmental dynamics through action-conditioned prediction, their evaluation remains fragmented. Current evaluation of embodied world models has largely focused on perceptual fidelity (e.g., video generation quality), overlooking the functional utility of these models in downstream decision-making tasks. In this work, we introduce WorldArena, a unified benchmark designed to systematically evaluate embodied world models across both perceptual and functional dimensions. WorldArena assesses models through three dimensions: video perception quality, measured with 16 metrics across six sub-dimensions; embodied task functionality, which evaluates world models as data engines, policy evaluators, and action planners integrating with subjective human evaluation. Furthermore, we propose EWMScore, a holistic metric integrating multi-dimensional performance into a single interpretable index. Through extensive experiments on 14 representative models, we reveal a significant perception-functionality gap, showing that high visual quality does not necessarily translate into strong embodied task capability. WorldArena benchmark with the public leaderboard is released at https://world-arena.ai, providing a framework for tracking progress toward truly functional world models in embodied AI.

Nucleotide sequence variation can induce significant shifts in functional fitness. Recent nucleotide foundation models promise to predict such fitness effects directly from sequence, yet heterogeneous datasets and inconsistent preprocessing make it difficult to compare methods fairly across DNA and RNA families. Here we introduce NABench, a large-scale, systematic benchmark for nucleic acid fitness prediction. NABench aggregates 162 high-throughput assays and curates 2.6 million mutated sequences spanning diverse DNA and RNA families, with standardized splits and rich metadata. We show that NABench surpasses prior nucleotide fitness benchmarks in scale, diversity, and data quality. Under a unified evaluation suite, we rigorously assess 29 representative foundation models across zero-shot, few-shot prediction, transfer learning, and supervised settings. The results quantify performance heterogeneity across tasks and nucleic-acid types, demonstrating clear strengths and failure modes for different modeling choices and establishing strong, reproducible baselines. We release NABench to advance nucleic acid modeling, supporting downstream applications in RNA/DNA design, synthetic biology, and biochemistry. Our code is available at https://github.com/mrzzmrzz/NABench.

Large language models (LLMs) have gained significant attention in chemistry. However, most existing datasets center on molecular-level property prediction and overlook the role of fine-grained functional group (FG) information. Incorporating FG-level data can provide valuable prior knowledge that links molecular structures with textual descriptions, which can be used to build more interpretable, structure-aware LLMs for reasoning on molecule-related tasks. Moreover, LLMs can learn from such fine-grained information to uncover hidden relationships between specific functional groups and molecular properties, thereby advancing molecular design and drug discovery. Here, we introduce FGBench, a dataset comprising 625K molecular property reasoning problems with functional group information. Functional groups are precisely annotated and localized within the molecule, which ensures the dataset's interoperability thereby facilitating further multimodal applications. FGBench includes both regression and classification tasks on 245 different functional groups across three categories for molecular property reasoning: (1) single functional group impacts, (2) multiple functional group interactions, and (3) direct molecular comparisons. In the benchmark of state-of-the-art LLMs on 7K curated data, the results indicate that current LLMs struggle with FG-level property reasoning, highlighting the need to enhance reasoning capabilities in LLMs for chemistry tasks. We anticipate that the methodology employed in FGBench to construct datasets with functional group-level information will serve as a foundational framework for generating new question-answer pairs, enabling LLMs to better understand fine-grained molecular structure-property relationships. The dataset and evaluation code are available at https://github.com/xuanliugit/FGBench.

Ribosomally synthesized and post-translationally modified peptide (RiPP) biosynthetic enzymes often exhibit promiscuous substrate preferences that cannot be reduced to simple rules. Large language models are promising tools for predicting such peptide fitness landscapes. However, state-of-the-art protein language models are trained on relatively few peptide sequences. A previous study comprehensively profiled the peptide substrate preferences of LazBF (a two-component serine dehydratase) and LazDEF (a three-component azole synthetase) from the lactazole biosynthetic pathway. We demonstrated that masked language modeling of LazBF substrate preferences produced language model embeddings that improved downstream classification models of both LazBF and LazDEF substrates. Similarly, masked language modeling of LazDEF substrate preferences produced embeddings that improved the performance of classification models of both LazBF and LazDEF substrates. Our results suggest that the models learned functional forms that are transferable between distinct enzymatic transformations that act within the same biosynthetic pathway. Our transfer learning method improved performance and data efficiency in data-scarce scenarios. We then fine-tuned models on each data set and showed that the fine-tuned models provided interpretable insight that we anticipate will facilitate the design of substrate libraries that are compatible with desired RiPP biosynthetic pathways.

We develop a multi-step workflow for the discovery of conventional superconductors, starting with a Bardeen Cooper Schrieffer inspired pre-screening of 1736 materials with high Debye temperature and electronic density of states. Next, we perform electron-phonon coupling calculations for 1058 of them to establish a large and systematic database of BCS superconducting properties. Using the McMillan-Allen-Dynes formula, we identify 105 dynamically stable materials with transition temperatures, Tc>5 K. Additionally, we analyze trends in our dataset and individual materials including MoN, VC, VTe, KB6, Ru3NbC, V3Pt, ScN, LaN2, RuO2, and TaC. We demonstrate that deep-learning(DL) models can predict superconductor properties faster than direct first principles computations. Notably, we find that by predicting the Eliashberg function as an intermediate quantity, we can improve model performance versus a direct DL prediction of Tc. We apply the trained models on the crystallographic open database and pre-screen candidates for further DFT calculations.

Predicting protein function from amino acid sequence remains a central challenge in data-scarce (low-N) regimes, limiting machine learning-guided protein design when only small amounts of assay-labeled sequence-function data are available. Protein language models (pLMs) have advanced the field by providing evolutionary-informed embeddings and sparse autoencoders (SAEs) have enabled decomposition of these embeddings into interpretable latent variables that capture structural and functional features. However, the effectiveness of SAEs for low-N function prediction and protein design has not been systematically studied. Herein, we evaluate SAEs trained on fine-tuned ESM2 embeddings across diverse fitness extrapolation and protein engineering tasks. We show that SAEs, with as few as 24 sequences, consistently outperform or compete with their ESM2 baselines in fitness prediction, indicating that their sparse latent space encodes compact and biologically meaningful representations that generalize more effectively from limited data. Moreover, steering predictive latents exploits biological motifs in pLM representations, yielding top-fitness variants in 83% of cases compared to designing with ESM2 alone.

Protein function prediction is a crucial task in bioinformatics, with significant implications for understanding biological processes and disease mechanisms. While the relationship between sequence and function has been extensively explored, translating protein structure to function continues to present substantial challenges. Various models, particularly, CNN and graph-based deep learning approaches that integrate structural and functional data, have been proposed to address these challenges. However, these methods often fall short in elucidating the functional significance of key residues essential for protein functionality, as they predominantly adopt a retrospective perspective, leading to suboptimal performance. Inspired by region proposal networks in computer vision, we introduce the Protein Region Proposal Network (ProteinRPN) for accurate protein function prediction. Specifically, the region proposal module component of ProteinRPN identifies potential functional regions (anchors) which are refined through the hierarchy-aware node drop pooling layer favoring nodes with defined secondary structures and spatial proximity. The representations of the predicted functional nodes are enriched using attention mechanisms and subsequently fed into a Graph Multiset Transformer, which is trained with supervised contrastive (SupCon) and InfoNCE losses on perturbed protein structures. Our model demonstrates significant improvements in predicting Gene Ontology (GO) terms, effectively localizing functional residues within protein structures. The proposed framework provides a robust, scalable solution for protein function annotation, advancing the understanding of protein structure-function relationships in computational biology.

The static synaptic connectivity of neuronal circuits stands in direct contrast to the dynamics of their function. As in changing community interactions, different neurons can participate actively in various combinations to effect behaviors at different times. We introduce an unsupervised approach to learn the dynamic affinities between neurons in live, behaving animals, and to reveal which communities form among neurons at different times. The inference occurs in two major steps. First, pairwise non-linear affinities between neuronal traces from brain-wide calcium activity are organized by non-negative tensor factorization (NTF). Each factor specifies which groups of neurons are most likely interacting for an inferred interval in time, and for which animals. Finally, a generative model that allows for weighted community detection is applied to the functional motifs produced by NTF to reveal a dynamic functional connectome. Since time codes the different experimental variables (e.g., application of chemical stimuli), this provides an atlas of neural motifs active during separate stages of an experiment (e.g., stimulus application or spontaneous behaviors). Results from our analysis are experimentally validated, confirming that our method is able to robustly predict causal interactions between neurons to generate behavior. Code is available at https://github.com/dyballa/dynamic-connectomes.

Deep learning-based computational methods have achieved promising results in predicting protein-protein interactions (PPIs). However, existing benchmarks predominantly focus on isolated pairwise evaluations, overlooking a model's capability to reconstruct biologically meaningful PPI networks, which is crucial for biology research. To address this gap, we introduce PRING, the first comprehensive benchmark that evaluates protein-protein interaction prediction from a graph-level perspective. PRING curates a high-quality, multi-species PPI network dataset comprising 21,484 proteins and 186,818 interactions, with well-designed strategies to address both data redundancy and leakage. Building on this golden-standard dataset, we establish two complementary evaluation paradigms: (1) topology-oriented tasks, which assess intra and cross-species PPI network construction, and (2) function-oriented tasks, including protein complex pathway prediction, GO module analysis, and essential protein justification. These evaluations not only reflect the model's capability to understand the network topology but also facilitate protein function annotation, biological module detection, and even disease mechanism analysis. Extensive experiments on four representative model categories, consisting of sequence similarity-based, naive sequence-based, protein language model-based, and structure-based approaches, demonstrate that current PPI models have potential limitations in recovering both structural and functional properties of PPI networks, highlighting the gap in supporting real-world biological applications. We believe PRING provides a reliable platform to guide the development of more effective PPI prediction models for the community. The dataset and source code of PRING are available at https://github.com/SophieSarceau/PRING.

General-purpose large language models (LLMs) that rely on in-context learning do not reliably deliver the scientific understanding and performance required for drug discovery tasks. Simply increasing model size or introducing reasoning tokens does not yield significant performance gains. To address this gap, we introduce the MMAI Gym for Science, a one-stop shop molecular data formats and modalities as well as task-specific reasoning, training, and benchmarking recipes designed to teach foundation models the 'language of molecules' in order to solve practical drug discovery problems. We use MMAI Gym to train an efficient Liquid Foundation Model (LFM) for these applications, demonstrating that smaller, purpose-trained foundation models can outperform substantially larger general-purpose or specialist models on molecular benchmarks. Across essential drug discovery tasks - including molecular optimization, ADMET property prediction, retrosynthesis, drug-target activity prediction, and functional group reasoning - the resulting model achieves near specialist-level performance and, in the majority of settings, surpasses larger models, while remaining more efficient and broadly applicable in the domain.

Whole-genome sequencing (WGS) has revealed numerous non-coding short variants whose functional impacts remain poorly understood. Despite recent advances in deep-learning genomic approaches, accurately predicting and prioritizing clinically relevant mutations in gene regulatory regions remains a major challenge. Here we introduce Deep VRegulome, a deep-learning method for prediction and interpretation of functionally disruptive variants in the human regulome, which combines 700 DNABERT fine-tuned models, trained on vast amounts of ENCODE gene regulatory regions, with variant scoring, motif analysis, attention-based visualization, and survival analysis. We showcase its application on TCGA glioblastoma WGS dataset in prioritizing survival-associated mutations and regulatory regions. The analysis identified 572 splice-disrupting and 9,837 transcription-factor binding site altering mutations occurring in greater than 10% of glioblastoma samples. Survival analysis linked 1352 mutations and 563 disrupted regulatory regions to patient outcomes, enabling stratification via non-coding mutation signatures. All the code, fine-tuned models, and an interactive data portal are publicly available.

Despite increasing research efforts on household robotics, robots intended for deployment in domestic settings still struggle with more complex tasks such as interacting with functional elements like drawers or light switches, largely due to limited task-specific understanding and interaction capabilities. These tasks require not only detection and pose estimation but also an understanding of the affordances these elements provide. To address these challenges and enhance robotic scene understanding, we introduce SpotLight: A comprehensive framework for robotic interaction with functional elements, specifically light switches. Furthermore, this framework enables robots to improve their environmental understanding through interaction. Leveraging VLM-based affordance prediction to estimate motion primitives for light switch interaction, we achieve up to 84% operation success in real world experiments. We further introduce a specialized dataset containing 715 images as well as a custom detection model for light switch detection. We demonstrate how the framework can facilitate robot learning through physical interaction by having the robot explore the environment and discover previously unknown relationships in a scene graph representation. Lastly, we propose an extension to the framework to accommodate other functional interactions such as swing doors, showcasing its flexibility. Videos and Code: timengelbracht.github.io/SpotLight/

Sparse autoencoders (SAEs) are widely used to interpret neural network representations, but their utility depends on whether the learned features are reproducible across training runs. We study this question through feature stability: for each SAE feature, we estimate the probability that a similar feature reappears in an independently trained SAE. This yields a scalable per-feature signal that separates stable from unstable features. In a large-scale study across seeds, models, layers, dictionary sizes, and SAE variants, we find a pronounced functional asymmetry: stable features carry most of the reconstruction- and prediction-relevant signal, while unstable features have weak marginal impact and are dominated by low-frequency surface-form triggers in both activation statistics and automatic explanations. Geometrically, unstable features are individually non-reproducible but concentrate in reproducible lower-rank subspaces, suggesting that seed dependence often reflects basis ambiguity within a shared region of activation space rather than pure noise. A controlled synthetic model makes this mechanism explicit, showing that low-rank ground-truth features can be recovered at the subspace level while remaining non-identifiable as individual SAE latents across seeds. Finally, by pooling unique cross-seed features, we construct more stable SAEs while preserving explained variance in this setting. Together, these results show that unstable features are not merely failed or noisy latents: they have weak individual functional impact, but reflect reproducible low-dimensional structure that standard SAEs resolve differently across seeds.

Recent advances in protein structure prediction have achieved near-atomic accuracy for well-folded proteins. However, current benchmarks inadequately assess model performance in biologically challenging contexts, especially those involving intrinsically disordered regions (IDRs), limiting their utility in applications such as drug discovery, disease variant interpretation, and protein interface design. We introduce DisProtBench, a comprehensive benchmark for evaluating protein structure prediction models (PSPMs) under structural disorder and complex biological conditions. DisProtBench spans three key axes: (1) Data complexity, covering disordered regions, G protein-coupled receptor (GPCR) ligand pairs, and multimeric complexes; (2) Task diversity, benchmarking twelve leading PSPMs across structure-based tasks with unified classification, regression, and interface metrics; and (3) Interpretability, via the DisProtBench Portal, which provides precomputed 3D structures and visual error analyses. Our results reveal significant variability in model robustness under disorder, with low-confidence regions linked to functional prediction failures. Notably, global accuracy metrics often fail to predict task performance in disordered settings, emphasizing the need for function-aware evaluation. DisProtBench establishes a reproducible, extensible, and biologically grounded framework for assessing next-generation PSPMs in realistic biomedical scenarios.

Self-supervised neural language models have recently achieved unprecedented success, from natural language processing to learning the languages of biological sequences and organic molecules. These models have demonstrated superior performance in the generation, structure classification, and functional predictions for proteins and molecules with learned representations. However, most of the masking-based pre-trained language models are not designed for generative design, and their black-box nature makes it difficult to interpret their design logic. Here we propose BLMM Crystal Transformer, a neural network based probabilistic generative model for generative and tinkering design of inorganic materials. Our model is built on the blank filling language model for text generation and has demonstrated unique advantages in learning the "materials grammars" together with high-quality generation, interpretability, and data efficiency. It can generate chemically valid materials compositions with as high as 89.7\% charge neutrality and 84.8\% balanced electronegativity, which are more than 4 and 8 times higher compared to a pseudo random sampling baseline. The probabilistic generation process of BLMM allows it to recommend tinkering operations based on learned materials chemistry and makes it useful for materials doping. Combined with the TCSP crysal structure prediction algorithm, We have applied our model to discover a set of new materials as validated using DFT calculations. Our work thus brings the unsupervised transformer language models based generative artificial intelligence to inorganic materials. A user-friendly web app has been developed for computational materials doping and can be accessed freely at www.materialsatlas.org/blmtinker.

Time series analysis is crucial in diverse scenarios. Beyond forecasting, considerable real-world tasks are categorized into classification, imputation, and anomaly detection, underscoring different capabilities termed time series understanding in this paper. While GPT-style models have been positioned as foundation models for time series forecasting, the BERT-style architecture, which has made significant advances in natural language understanding, has not been fully unlocked for time series understanding, possibly attributed to the undesirable dropout of essential elements of BERT. In this paper, inspired by the shared multi-granularity structure between multivariate time series and multisentence documents, we design TimesBERT to learn generic representations of time series including temporal patterns and variate-centric characteristics. In addition to a natural adaptation of masked modeling, we propose a parallel task of functional token prediction to embody vital multi-granularity structures. Our model is pre-trained on 260 billion time points across diverse domains. Leveraging multi-granularity representations, TimesBERT achieves state-of-the-art performance across four typical downstream understanding tasks, outperforming task-specific models and language pre-trained backbones, positioning it as a versatile foundation model for time series understanding.

Ensuring vertical separation is a key means of maintaining safe separation between aircraft in congested airspace. Aircraft trajectories are modelled in the presence of significant epistemic uncertainty, leading to discrepancies between observed trajectories and the predictions of deterministic models, hampering the task of planning to ensure safe separation. In this paper a probabilistic model is presented, for the purpose of emulating the trajectories of aircraft in climb and bounding the uncertainty of the predicted trajectory. A monotonic, functional representation exploits the spatio-temporal correlations in the radar observations. Through the use of Gaussian Process Emulators, features that parameterise the climb are mapped directly to functional outputs, providing a fast approximation, while ensuring that the resulting trajectory is monotonic. The model was applied as a probabilistic digital twin for aircraft in climb and baselined against BADA, a deterministic model widely used in industry. When applied to an unseen test dataset, the probabilistic model was found to provide a mean prediction that was 21% more accurate, with a 34% sharper forecast.

A model involving Gaussian processes (GPs) is introduced to simultaneously handle multi-task learning, clustering, and prediction for multiple functional data. This procedure acts as a model-based clustering method for functional data as well as a learning step for subsequent predictions for new tasks. The model is instantiated as a mixture of multi-task GPs with common mean processes. A variational EM algorithm is derived for dealing with the optimisation of the hyper-parameters along with the hyper-posteriors' estimation of latent variables and processes. We establish explicit formulas for integrating the mean processes and the latent clustering variables within a predictive distribution, accounting for uncertainty on both aspects. This distribution is defined as a mixture of cluster-specific GP predictions, which enhances the performances when dealing with group-structured data. The model handles irregular grid of observations and offers different hypotheses on the covariance structure for sharing additional information across tasks. The performances on both clustering and prediction tasks are assessed through various simulated scenarios and real datasets. The overall algorithm, called MagmaClust, is publicly available as an R package.

Parameterized tight-binding models fit to first principles calculations can provide an efficient and accurate quantum mechanical method for predicting properties of molecules and solids. However, well-tested parameter sets are generally only available for a limited number of atom combinations, making routine use of this method difficult. Furthermore, most previous models consider only simple two-body interactions, which limits accuracy. To tackle these challenges, we develop a density functional theory database of nearly one million materials, which we use to fit a universal set of tight-binding parameters for 65 elements and their binary combinations. We include both two-body and three-body effective interaction terms in our model, plus self-consistent charge transfer, enabling our model to work for metallic, covalent, and ionic bonds with the same parameter set. To ensure predictive power, we adopt a learning framework where we repeatedly test the model on new low energy crystal structures and then add them to the fitting dataset, iterating until predictions improve. We distribute the materials database and tools developed in this work publicly.

Neurons in the brain are spatially organized such that neighbors on tissue often exhibit similar response profiles. In the human language system, experimental studies have observed clusters for syntactic and semantic categories, but the mechanisms underlying this functional organization remain unclear. Here, building on work from the vision literature, we develop TopoLM, a transformer language model with an explicit two-dimensional spatial representation of model units. By combining a next-token prediction objective with a spatial smoothness loss, representations in this model assemble into clusters that correspond to semantically interpretable groupings of text and closely match the functional organization in the brain's language system. TopoLM successfully predicts the emergence of the spatio-functional organization of a cortical language system as well as the organization of functional clusters selective for fine-grained linguistic features empirically observed in human cortex. Our results suggest that the functional organization of the human language system is driven by a unified spatial objective, and provide a functionally and spatially aligned model of language processing in the brain.

Building Virtual Cells that can accurately simulate cellular responses to perturbations is a long-standing goal in systems biology. A fundamental challenge is that high-throughput single-cell sequencing is destructive: the same cell cannot be observed both before and after a perturbation. Thus, perturbation prediction requires mapping unpaired control and perturbed populations. Existing models address this by learning maps between distributions, but typically assume a single fixed response distribution when conditioned on observed cellular context (e.g., cell type) and the perturbation type. In reality, responses vary systematically due to unobservable latent factors such as microenvironmental fluctuations and complex batch effects, forming a manifold of possible distributions for the same observed conditions. To account for this variability, we introduce PerturbDiff, which shifts modeling from individual cells to entire distributions. By embedding distributions as points in a Hilbert space, we define a diffusion-based generative process operating directly over probability distributions. This allows PerturbDiff to capture population-level response shifts across hidden factors. Benchmarks on established datasets show that PerturbDiff achieves state-of-the-art performance in single-cell response prediction and generalizes substantially better to unseen perturbations. See our project page (https://katarinayuan.github.io/PerturbDiff-ProjectPage/), where code and data will be made publicly available (https://github.com/DeepGraphLearning/PerturbDiff).

The presence of point defects such as vacancies plays an important role in material design. Here, we demonstrate that a graph neural network (GNN) model trained only on perfect materials can also be used to predict vacancy formation energies (E_{vac}) of defect structures without the need for additional training data. Such GNN-based predictions are considerably faster than density functional theory (DFT) calculations with reasonable accuracy and show the potential that GNNs are able to capture a functional form for energy predictions. To test this strategy, we developed a DFT dataset of 508 E_{vac} consisting of 3D elemental solids, alloys, oxides, nitrides, and 2D monolayer materials. We analyzed and discussed the applicability of such direct and fast predictions. We applied the model to predict 192494 E_{vac} for 55723 materials in the JARVIS-DFT database.

Histopathology whole-slide images (WSIs) are routinely acquired in clinical practice and contain rich tissue morphology but lack direct molecular architecture and functional programs defining pathological states, whereas RNA sequencing (RNA-seq) provides genome-wide transcriptional profiles at substantial cost, thereby motivating WSI-based genome-wide transcriptomic prediction. Existing approaches for predicting gene expression from WSIs predominantly rely on deterministic regression with one-to-one mapping, limiting their ability to capture biological heterogeneity and predictive uncertainty. We propose RNA-FM, a flow-matching generative framework for genome-wide bulk RNA-seq prediction from WSIs. RNA-FM formulates transcriptomic prediction as a continuous-time conditional transport problem, learning a velocity field that maps a simple prior to the target gene expression distribution conditioned on morphologies. By integrating pathway-level structure, RNA-FM enables scalable and biologically interpretable genome-wide gene expression imputation. Extensive experiments demonstrate that RNA-FM consistently outperforms state-of-the-art approaches while maintaining biological meaningfulness. Code is available at https://github.com/YXSong000/RNA-FM.

In-context learning for tabular data sets strong predictive standards in observational settings; it however primarily relies on correlational structure, which becomes unreliable under distribution shift or intervention. While established methods to discover causal structure exist, they are often focused on structure identifiability and decoupled from the predictive architectures that could benefit from them. To bridge these perspectives, we study how to simultaneously infer and enforce causal structure in the form of topological variable orderings into tabular prediction. Unlike standard architectures, our model TabOrder uses causal order-constrained attention, basing predictions only on features that precede a target under a learned causal order. Similar to causal discovery methods, TabOrder learns the optimal variable ordering in an unsupervised manner through a likelihood-based objective. We justify this choice under standard functional model classes and also study how sample missingness, a common challenge in tabular data, interacts with causal direction identification. Empirically, we confirm that TabOrder recovers accurate variable orderings while addressing prediction and imputation tasks, as well as gives insight into real-world biological data under intervention.

The prediction of crystal properties is essential for understanding structure-property relationships and accelerating the discovery of functional materials. However, conventional approaches relying on experimental measurements or density functional theory (DFT) calculations are often resource-intensive, limiting their scalability. Machine learning (ML) models offer a promising alternative by learning complex structure-property relationships from data, enabling faster predictions. Yet, existing ML models often rely on labeled data, adopt representations that poorly capture essential structural characteristics, and lack integration with physical principles--factors that limit their generalizability and interpretability. Here, we introduce CLOUD (Crystal Language mOdel for Unified and Differentiable materials modeling), a transformer-based framework trained on a novel Symmetry-Consistent Ordered Parameter Encoding (SCOPE) that encodes crystal symmetry, Wyckoff positions, and composition in a compact, coordinate-free string representation. Pre-trained on over six million crystal structures, CLOUD is fine-tuned on multiple downstream tasks and achieves competitive performance in predicting a wide range of material properties, demonstrating strong scaling performance. Furthermore, as proof of concept of differentiable materials modeling, CLOUD is applied to predict the phonon internal energy and heat capacity, which integrates the Debye model to preserve thermodynamic consistency. The CLOUD-DEBYE framework enforces thermodynamic consistency and enables temperature-dependent property prediction without requiring additional data. These results demonstrate the potential of CLOUD as a scalable and physics-informed foundation model for crystalline materials, unifying symmetry-consistent representations with physically grounded learning for property prediction and materials discovery.

We study the problem of training self-supervised foundation models for functional MRI. Our main contributions are: (1) we introduce a new model family (CortexMAE) trained using the masked autoencoder framework on 2.1K hours of open fMRI data, and (2) we release the first open evaluation suite (Brainmarks) for fMRI foundation models. Our core innovation is simple: we adapt the Vision Transformer to fMRI by first converting each 3D fMRI volume to a 2D map using a cortical flat map projection. We directly compare flat maps to both parcellation and volume-based representations. While each has its advantages, flat maps generally perform best. We perform the first systematic scaling analysis for fMRI and observe strict power law scaling, albeit with limits. Finally, we use Brainmarks to do controlled benchmark comparisons. On subject-level trait prediction, we report a challenging null result: no single model achieves clear state-of-the-art performance. Moreover, all models struggle to outperform a simple functional connectivity baseline. On cognitive state decoding, we observe more robust performance, and in this setting our CortexMAE family outperforms prior models by a large margin. Code, models, and datasets are available at https://github.com/MedARC-AI/CortexMAE and https://github.com/MedARC-AI/Brainmarks.

We introduce Functional Group-Aware Representations for Small Molecules (FARM), a novel foundation model designed to bridge the gap between SMILES, natural language, and molecular graphs. The key innovation of FARM lies in its functional group-aware tokenization, which incorporates functional group information directly into the representations. This strategic reduction in tokenization granularity in a way that is intentionally interfaced with key drivers of functional properties (i.e., functional groups) enhances the model's understanding of chemical language, expands the chemical lexicon, more effectively bridging SMILES and natural language, and ultimately advances the model's capacity to predict molecular properties. FARM also represents molecules from two perspectives: by using masked language modeling to capture atom-level features and by employing graph neural networks to encode the whole molecule topology. By leveraging contrastive learning, FARM aligns these two views of representations into a unified molecular embedding. We rigorously evaluate FARM on the MoleculeNet dataset, where it achieves state-of-the-art performance on 10 out of 12 tasks. These results highlight FARM's potential to improve molecular representation learning, with promising applications in drug discovery and pharmaceutical research.

Predicting human item difficulty is central to educational assessment, where reliable estimates support fairness and effective test construction. Existing methods often depend on costly human calibration or item-level textual representations, providing limited evidence about the cognitive processes that make items difficult. We argue that difficulty should be viewed not only as a property of item text, but also as an observable consequence of the problem-solving burden an item induces. Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) offer scalable process evidence through reasoning traces, but such evidence must be structured to support interpretable modeling. To this end, we introduce Epi2Diff (Episode to Difficulty), a framework that maps LRM reasoning traces into cognitively grounded episode sequences. These episodes group trace segments into functional problem-solving states, enabling difficulty to be modeled through reasoning scale, effort allocation, and state transitions. Epi2Diff extracts compact episode-dynamic features and combines them with semantic item representations for human difficulty prediction. Experiments on four real-world human difficulty datasets show that Epi2Diff consistently outperforms strong baselines, including fine-tuned small language models, LLM in-context learning, and supervised LLM adaptation. On SAT-derived classification benchmarks, Epi2Diff achieves an 8.1% average relative gain over supervised LLM fine-tuning baselines. Further analyses show that harder items induce more effortful, iterative, and implementation-centered episode dynamics, rather than merely longer responses. These results demonstrate that cognitive episodes in LRM reasoning traces provide a predictive and interpretable process representation for human item difficulty, offering a new lens for educational measurement with reasoning models.

Recent advances in self-supervised models for natural language, vision, and protein sequences have inspired the development of large genomic DNA language models (DNALMs). These models aim to learn generalizable representations of diverse DNA elements, potentially enabling various genomic prediction, interpretation and design tasks. Despite their potential, existing benchmarks do not adequately assess the capabilities of DNALMs on key downstream applications involving an important class of non-coding DNA elements critical for regulating gene activity. In this study, we introduce DART-Eval, a suite of representative benchmarks specifically focused on regulatory DNA to evaluate model performance across zero-shot, probed, and fine-tuned scenarios against contemporary ab initio models as baselines. Our benchmarks target biologically meaningful downstream tasks such as functional sequence feature discovery, predicting cell-type specific regulatory activity, and counterfactual prediction of the impacts of genetic variants. We find that current DNALMs exhibit inconsistent performance and do not offer compelling gains over alternative baseline models for most tasks, while requiring significantly more computational resources. We discuss potentially promising modeling, data curation, and evaluation strategies for the next generation of DNALMs. Our code is available at https://github.com/kundajelab/DART-Eval.

Deep learning models have driven significant progress in predicting protein function and interactions at the protein level. While these advancements have been invaluable for many biological applications such as enzyme engineering and function annotation, a more detailed perspective is essential for understanding protein functional mechanisms and evaluating the biological knowledge captured by models. To address this demand, we introduce VenusX, the first large-scale benchmark for fine-grained functional annotation and function-based protein pairing at the residue, fragment, and domain levels. VenusX comprises three major task categories across six types of annotations, including residue-level binary classification, fragment-level multi-class classification, and pairwise functional similarity scoring for identifying critical active sites, binding sites, conserved sites, motifs, domains, and epitopes. The benchmark features over 878,000 samples curated from major open-source databases such as InterPro, BioLiP, and SAbDab. By providing mixed-family and cross-family splits at three sequence identity thresholds, our benchmark enables a comprehensive assessment of model performance on both in-distribution and out-of-distribution scenarios. For baseline evaluation, we assess a diverse set of popular and open-source models, including pre-trained protein language models, sequence-structure hybrids, structure-based methods, and alignment-based techniques. Their performance is reported across all benchmark datasets and evaluation settings using multiple metrics, offering a thorough comparison and a strong foundation for future research. Code and data are publicly available at https://github.com/ai4protein/VenusX.

The design of novel protein structures remains a challenge in protein engineering for applications across biomedicine and chemistry. In this line of work, a diffusion model over rigid bodies in 3D (referred to as frames) has shown success in generating novel, functional protein backbones that have not been observed in nature. However, there exists no principled methodological framework for diffusion on SE(3), the space of orientation preserving rigid motions in R3, that operates on frames and confers the group invariance. We address these shortcomings by developing theoretical foundations of SE(3) invariant diffusion models on multiple frames followed by a novel framework, FrameDiff, for learning the SE(3) equivariant score over multiple frames. We apply FrameDiff on monomer backbone generation and find it can generate designable monomers up to 500 amino acids without relying on a pretrained protein structure prediction network that has been integral to previous methods. We find our samples are capable of generalizing beyond any known protein structure.

We introduce Mosaic, a probabilistic weather forecasting model that addresses two distinct failure modes of spectral degradation in ML-based weather prediction: (1) spectral damping caused by deterministic training against ensemble means; and (2) aliasing artifacts caused by compressive encoding onto a coarse latent grid. Mosaic generates ensemble members through learned functional perturbations and operates on native-resolution grids via mesh-aligned block-sparse attention, a hardware-aligned mechanism that captures long-range dependencies at linear cost by sharing keys and values across spatially adjacent queries. At 1.5° resolution with 214M parameters, Mosaic matches or outperforms models trained on 6times finer resolution on key variables and achieves state-of-the-art results among 1.5° models, producing well-calibrated ensembles whose individual members exhibit near-perfect spectral alignment across all resolved frequencies. A 24-member, 10-day forecast takes under 12\,s on a single H100~GPU. Code is available at https://github.com/maxxxzdn/mosaic.

We introduce Suiren-1.0, a family of molecular foundation models for the accurate modeling of diverse organic systems. Suiren-1.0 comprising three specialized variants (Suiren-Base, Suiren-Dimer, and Suiren-ConfAvg) is integrated within an algorithmic framework that bridges the gap between 3D conformational geometry and 2D statistical ensemble spaces. We first pre-train Suiren-Base (1.8B parameters) on a 70M-sample Density Functional Theory dataset using spatial self-supervision and SE(3)-equivariant architectures, achieving robust performance in quantum property prediction. Suiren-Dimer extends this capability through continued pre-training on 13.5M intermolecular interaction samples. To enable efficient downstream application, we propose Conformation Compression Distillation (CCD), a diffusion-based framework that distills complex 3D structural representations into 2D conformation-averaged representations. This yields the lightweight Suiren-ConfAvg, which generates high-fidelity representations from SMILES or molecular graphs. Our extensive evaluations demonstrate that Suiren-1.0 establishes state-of-the-art results across a range of tasks. All models and benchmarks are open-sourced.

Proteins are essential to life's processes, underpinning evolution and diversity. Advances in sequencing technology have revealed millions of proteins, underscoring the need for sophisticated pre-trained protein models for biological analysis and AI development. Facebook's ESM2, the most advanced protein language model to date, leverages a masked prediction task for unsupervised learning, crafting amino acid representations with notable biochemical accuracy. Yet, it lacks in delivering functional protein insights, signaling an opportunity for enhancing representation quality.Our study addresses this gap by incorporating protein family classification into ESM2's training.This approach, augmented with Community Propagation-Based Clustering Algorithm, improves global protein representations, while a contextual prediction task fine-tunes local amino acid accuracy. Significantly, our model achieved state-of-the-art results in several downstream experiments, demonstrating the power of combining global and local methodologies to substantially boost protein representation quality.

Machine Learning Interatomic Potentials (MLIP) are a novel in silico approach for molecular property prediction, creating an alternative to disrupt the accuracy/speed trade-off of empirical force fields and density functional theory (DFT). In this white paper, we present our MLIP library which was created with two core aims: (1) provide to industry experts without machine learning background a user-friendly and computationally efficient set of tools to experiment with MLIP models, (2) provide machine learning developers a framework to develop novel approaches fully integrated with molecular dynamics tools. The library includes in this release three model architectures (MACE, NequIP, and ViSNet), and two molecular dynamics (MD) wrappers (ASE, and JAX-MD), along with a set of pre-trained organics models. The seamless integration with JAX-MD, in particular, facilitates highly efficient MD simulations, bringing MLIP models significantly closer to industrial application. The library is available on GitHub and on PyPI under the Apache license 2.0.

Despite their widespread success, the application of deep neural networks to functional data remains scarce today. The infinite dimensionality of functional data means standard learning algorithms can be applied only after appropriate dimension reduction, typically achieved via basis expansions. Currently, these bases are chosen a priori without the information for the task at hand and thus may not be effective for the designated task. We instead propose to adaptively learn these bases in an end-to-end fashion. We introduce neural networks that employ a new Basis Layer whose hidden units are each basis functions themselves implemented as a micro neural network. Our architecture learns to apply parsimonious dimension reduction to functional inputs that focuses only on information relevant to the target rather than irrelevant variation in the input function. Across numerous classification/regression tasks with functional data, our method empirically outperforms other types of neural networks, and we prove that our approach is statistically consistent with low generalization error. Code is available at: https://github.com/jwyyy/AdaFNN.

Contemporary predictive models are hard to interpret as their deep nets exploit numerous complex relations between input elements. This work suggests a theoretical framework for model interpretability by measuring the contribution of relevant features to the functional entropy of the network with respect to the input. We rely on the log-Sobolev inequality that bounds the functional entropy by the functional Fisher information with respect to the covariance of the data. This provides a principled way to measure the amount of information contribution of a subset of features to the decision function. Through extensive experiments, we show that our method surpasses existing interpretability sampling-based methods on various data signals such as image, text, and audio.

Deep functional maps have recently emerged as a powerful tool for solving non-rigid shape correspondence tasks. Methods that use this approach combine the power and flexibility of the functional map framework, with data-driven learning for improved accuracy and generality. However, most existing methods in this area restrict the learning aspect only to the feature functions and still rely on axiomatic modeling for formulating the training loss or for functional map regularization inside the networks. This limits both the accuracy and the applicability of the resulting approaches only to scenarios where assumptions of the axiomatic models hold. In this work, we show, for the first time, that both in-network regularization and functional map training can be replaced with data-driven methods. For this, we first train a generative model of functional maps in the spectral domain using score-based generative modeling, built from a large collection of high-quality maps. We then exploit the resulting model to promote the structural properties of ground truth functional maps on new shape collections. Remarkably, we demonstrate that the learned models are category-agnostic, and can fully replace commonly used strategies such as enforcing Laplacian commutativity or orthogonality of functional maps. Our key technical contribution is a novel distillation strategy from diffusion models in the spectral domain. Experiments demonstrate that our learned regularization leads to better results than axiomatic approaches for zero-shot non-rigid shape matching. Our code is available at: https://github.com/daidedou/diffumatch/

It is desirable for statistical models to detect signals of interest independently of their position. If the data is generated by some smooth process, this additional structure should be taken into account. We introduce a new class of neural networks that are shift invariant and preserve smoothness of the data: functional neural networks (FNNs). For this, we use methods from functional data analysis (FDA) to extend multi-layer perceptrons and convolutional neural networks to functional data. We propose different model architectures, show that the models outperform a benchmark model from FDA in terms of accuracy and successfully use FNNs to classify electroencephalography (EEG) data.

Functional data play a pivotal role across science and engineering, yet their infinite-dimensional nature makes representation learning challenging. Conventional statistical models depend on pre-chosen basis expansions or kernels, limiting the flexibility of data-driven discovery, while many deep-learning pipelines treat functions as fixed-grid vectors, ignoring inherent continuity. In this paper, we introduce Functional Attention with a Mixture-of-Experts (FAME), an end-to-end, fully data-driven framework for function-on-function regression. FAME forms continuous attention by coupling a bidirectional neural controlled differential equation with MoE-driven vector fields to capture intra-functional continuity, and further fuses change to inter-functional dependencies via multi-head cross attention. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world functional-regression benchmarks show that FAME achieves state-of-the-art accuracy, strong robustness to arbitrarily sampled discrete observations of functions.

We propose a computationally efficient inferential procedure for longitudinal function-on-function regression. The method follows a marginal three-step approach: (1) fit massive pointwise longitudinal scalar-on-function regression models, (2) smooth the resulting estimates along the bivariate functional domain, and (3) compute confidence bands using either an analytic approach for Gaussian data or a cluster bootstrap for Gaussian or non-Gaussian data. Simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed method achieves accurate estimation and valid inference, while substantially reducing computational burden compared to existing approaches. Methods are motivated by a physical activity intervention trial in older adults where high-dimensional wearable data were collected longitudinally across multiple visits. Our applications reveal significant increases in physical activity in the morning using interpersonal intervention strategies, but not intrapersonal strategies. The proposed methods are implemented in an R package.

Activity and property prediction models are the central workhorses in drug discovery and materials sciences, but currently they have to be trained or fine-tuned for new tasks. Without training or fine-tuning, scientific language models could be used for such low-data tasks through their announced zero- and few-shot capabilities. However, their predictive quality at activity prediction is lacking. In this work, we envision a novel type of activity prediction model that is able to adapt to new prediction tasks at inference time, via understanding textual information describing the task. To this end, we propose a new architecture with separate modules for chemical and natural language inputs, and a contrastive pre-training objective on data from large biochemical databases. In extensive experiments, we show that our method CLAMP yields improved predictive performance on few-shot learning benchmarks and zero-shot problems in drug discovery. We attribute the advances of our method to the modularized architecture and to our pre-training objective.

We present a new dataset, Functional Map of the World (fMoW), which aims to inspire the development of machine learning models capable of predicting the functional purpose of buildings and land use from temporal sequences of satellite images and a rich set of metadata features. The metadata provided with each image enables reasoning about location, time, sun angles, physical sizes, and other features when making predictions about objects in the image. Our dataset consists of over 1 million images from over 200 countries. For each image, we provide at least one bounding box annotation containing one of 63 categories, including a "false detection" category. We present an analysis of the dataset along with baseline approaches that reason about metadata and temporal views. Our data, code, and pretrained models have been made publicly available.

Learning mappings between infinite-dimensional function spaces, or operator learning, is essential for many machine learning applications. Although transformer-based operators are popular, they often rely on token-wise attention. These methods treat continuous fields as discrete tokens and usually ignore the global functional structure. We introduce Functional Attention, which reinterprets attention as a functional correspondence between adaptive bases. Inspired by geometric functional maps, our method replaces softmax affinities with structured linear operators. This yields a compact, generalizable, resolution-invariant representation that explicitly captures global dependencies. Experiments demonstrate that Functional Attention can match state-of-the-art performance in many operator learning tasks, including solving PDEs, 3D segmentation, and regression, while remaining robust to varying discretizations. Project page is available at https://github.com/xjffff/FUNCATTN.

Machine learning weather prediction (MLWP) models have demonstrated remarkable potential in delivering accurate forecasts at significantly reduced computational cost compared to traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems. However, challenges remain in ensuring the physical consistency of MLWP outputs, particularly in deterministic settings. This study presents FastNet, a graph neural network (GNN)-based global prediction model, and investigates the impact of alternative loss function designs on improving the physical realism of its forecasts. We explore three key modifications to the standard mean squared error (MSE) loss: (1) a modified spherical harmonic (MSH) loss that penalises spectral amplitude errors to reduce blurring and enhance small-scale structure retention; (2) inclusion of horizontal gradient terms in the loss to suppress non-physical artefacts; and (3) an alternative wind representation that decouples speed and direction to better capture extreme wind events. Results show that while the MSH and gradient-based losses alone may slightly degrade RMSE scores, when trained in combination the model exhibits very similar MSE performance to an MSE-trained model while at the same time significantly improving spectral fidelity and physical consistency. The alternative wind representation further improves wind speed accuracy and reduces directional bias. Collectively, these findings highlight the importance of loss function design as a mechanism for embedding domain knowledge into MLWP models and advancing their operational readiness.

We investigate the predictability of large language model (LLM) capabilities: given records of past experiments using different model families, numbers of parameters, tasks, and numbers of in-context examples, can we accurately predict LLM performance on new experiment configurations? Answering this question has practical implications for LLM users (e.g., deciding which models to try), developers (e.g., prioritizing evaluation on representative tasks), and the research community (e.g., identifying hard-to-predict capabilities that warrant further investigation). We study the performance prediction problem on experiment records from BIG-bench. On a random train-test split, an MLP-based predictor achieves an R^2 score greater than 95%, indicating the presence of learnable patterns within the experiment records. We then formulate the problem of searching for "small-bench," an informative subset of BIG-bench tasks from which the performance on the full set can be maximally recovered. We find a subset as informative as BIG-bench Hard for evaluating new model families, while being 3times smaller. Additionally, we find competitive subsets by clustering task representations learned by our MLP-based predictor and selecting tasks close to cluster centroids, highlighting the importance of task diversity in constructing "small-bench."

We introduce Functional Diffusion Processes (FDPs), which generalize score-based diffusion models to infinite-dimensional function spaces. FDPs require a new mathematical framework to describe the forward and backward dynamics, and several extensions to derive practical training objectives. These include infinite-dimensional versions of Girsanov theorem, in order to be able to compute an ELBO, and of the sampling theorem, in order to guarantee that functional evaluations in a countable set of points are equivalent to infinite-dimensional functions. We use FDPs to build a new breed of generative models in function spaces, which do not require specialized network architectures, and that can work with any kind of continuous data. Our results on real data show that FDPs achieve high-quality image generation, using a simple MLP architecture with orders of magnitude fewer parameters than existing diffusion models.

Protein biology focuses on the intricate relationships among sequences, structures, and functions. Deciphering protein functions is crucial for understanding biological processes, advancing drug discovery, and enabling synthetic biology applications. Since protein sequences determine tertiary structures, which in turn govern functions, integrating sequence and structure information is essential for accurate prediction of protein functions. Traditional protein language models (pLMs) have advanced protein-related tasks by learning representations from large-scale sequence and structure data. However, pLMs are limited in integrating broader contextual knowledge, particularly regarding functional modalities that are fundamental to protein biology. In contrast, large language models (LLMs) have exhibited outstanding performance in contextual understanding, reasoning, and generation across diverse domains. Leveraging these capabilities, STELLA is proposed as a multimodal LLM integrating protein sequence-structure representations with general knowledge to address protein function prediction. Through multimodal instruction tuning (MMIT) using the proposed OPI-Struc dataset, STELLA achieves state-of-the-art performance in two function-related tasks-functional description prediction (FP) and enzyme-catalyzed reaction prediction (EP). This study highlights the potential of multimodal LLMs as an alternative paradigm to pLMs to advance protein biology research.

Model merging is an efficient post-training strategy for integrating knowledge from multiple finetuned checkpoints of a shared foundation model. Existing methods operate in the parameter space, combining task vectors to mitigate conflicts, but remain constrained by parameter inconsistencies. We propose Functional Dual Anchors (FDAs), a framework that instead models the input-representation space. FDAs are synthetic inputs whose induced gradients align with task vectors, capturing task-specific functional shifts relative to the pretrained model. This perspective bridges joint multi-task training and post-hoc merging, offering both robustness and flexibility. We further introduce a principled initialization scheme and show that FDAs are complementary to parameter-space model merging. Comprehensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of FDAs in model merging.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have recently been successfully applied to regression tasks -- such as time series forecasting and tabular prediction -- by leveraging their in-context learning abilities. However, their autoregressive decoding process may be ill-suited to continuous-valued outputs, where obtaining predictive distributions over numerical targets requires repeated sampling, leading to high computational cost and inference time. In this work, we investigate whether distributional properties of LLM predictions can be recovered without explicit autoregressive generation. To this end, we study a set of regression probes trained to predict statistical functionals (e.g., mean, median, quantiles) of the LLM's numerical output distribution directly from its internal representations. Our results suggest that LLM embeddings carry informative signals about summary statistics of their predictive distributions, including the numerical uncertainty. This investigation opens up new questions about how LLMs internally encode uncertainty in numerical tasks, and about the feasibility of lightweight alternatives to sampling-based approaches for uncertainty-aware numerical predictions.

We propose a new class of generative diffusion models, called functional diffusion. In contrast to previous work, functional diffusion works on samples that are represented by functions with a continuous domain. Functional diffusion can be seen as an extension of classical diffusion models to an infinite-dimensional domain. Functional diffusion is very versatile as images, videos, audio, 3D shapes, deformations, \etc, can be handled by the same framework with minimal changes. In addition, functional diffusion is especially suited for irregular data or data defined in non-standard domains. In our work, we derive the necessary foundations for functional diffusion and propose a first implementation based on the transformer architecture. We show generative results on complicated signed distance functions and deformation functions defined on 3D surfaces.

Exposing meaningful and interpretable neural interactions is critical to understanding neural circuits. Inferred neural interactions from neural signals primarily reflect functional interactions. In a long experiment, subject animals may experience different stages defined by the experiment, stimuli, or behavioral states, and hence functional interactions can change over time. To model dynamically changing functional interactions, prior work employs state-switching generalized linear models with hidden Markov models (i.e., HMM-GLMs). However, we argue they lack biological plausibility, as functional interactions are shaped and confined by the underlying anatomical connectome. Here, we propose a novel prior-informed state-switching GLM. We introduce both a Gaussian prior and a one-hot prior over the GLM in each state. The priors are learnable. We will show that the learned prior should capture the state-constant interaction, shedding light on the underlying anatomical connectome and revealing more likely physical neuron interactions. The state-dependent interaction modeled by each GLM offers traceability to capture functional variations across multiple brain states. Our methods effectively recover true interaction structures in simulated data, achieve the highest predictive likelihood with real neural datasets, and render interaction structures and hidden states more interpretable when applied to real neural data.

The development of foundation models for functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) time series holds significant promise for predicting phenotypes related to disease and cognition. Current models, however, are often trained using a mask-and-reconstruct objective on small brain regions. This focus on low-level information leads to representations that are sensitive to noise and temporal fluctuations, necessitating extensive fine-tuning for downstream tasks. We introduce Brain-Semantoks, a self-supervised framework designed specifically to learn abstract representations of brain dynamics. Its architecture is built on two core innovations: a semantic tokenizer that aggregates noisy regional signals into robust tokens representing functional networks, and a self-distillation objective that enforces representational stability across time. We show that this objective is stabilized through a novel training curriculum, ensuring the model robustly learns meaningful features from low signal-to-noise time series. We demonstrate that learned representations enable strong performance on a variety of downstream tasks even when only using a linear probe. Furthermore, we provide comprehensive scaling analyses indicating more unlabeled data reliably results in out-of-distribution performance gains without domain adaptation.

This paper studies sequence modeling for prediction tasks with long range dependencies. We propose a new formulation for state space models (SSMs) based on learning linear dynamical systems with the spectral filtering algorithm (Hazan et al. (2017)). This gives rise to a novel sequence prediction architecture we call a spectral state space model. Spectral state space models have two primary advantages. First, they have provable robustness properties as their performance depends on neither the spectrum of the underlying dynamics nor the dimensionality of the problem. Second, these models are constructed with fixed convolutional filters that do not require learning while still outperforming SSMs in both theory and practice. The resulting models are evaluated on synthetic dynamical systems and long-range prediction tasks of various modalities. These evaluations support the theoretical benefits of spectral filtering for tasks requiring very long range memory.

Identifying cell types and understanding their functional properties is crucial for unraveling the mechanisms underlying perception and cognition. In the retina, functional types can be identified by carefully selected stimuli, but this requires expert domain knowledge and biases the procedure towards previously known cell types. In the visual cortex, it is still unknown what functional types exist and how to identify them. Thus, for unbiased identification of the functional cell types in retina and visual cortex, new approaches are needed. Here we propose an optimization-based clustering approach using deep predictive models to obtain functional clusters of neurons using Most Discriminative Stimuli (MDS). Our approach alternates between stimulus optimization with cluster reassignment akin to an expectation-maximization algorithm. The algorithm recovers functional clusters in mouse retina, marmoset retina and macaque visual area V4. This demonstrates that our approach can successfully find discriminative stimuli across species, stages of the visual system and recording techniques. The resulting most discriminative stimuli can be used to assign functional cell types fast and on the fly, without the need to train complex predictive models or show a large natural scene dataset, paving the way for experiments that were previously limited by experimental time. Crucially, MDS are interpretable: they visualize the distinctive stimulus patterns that most unambiguously identify a specific type of neuron.

In this work we introduce RITA: a suite of autoregressive generative models for protein sequences, with up to 1.2 billion parameters, trained on over 280 million protein sequences belonging to the UniRef-100 database. Such generative models hold the promise of greatly accelerating protein design. We conduct the first systematic study of how capabilities evolve with model size for autoregressive transformers in the protein domain: we evaluate RITA models in next amino acid prediction, zero-shot fitness, and enzyme function prediction, showing benefits from increased scale. We release the RITA models openly, to the benefit of the research community.

Temporal point processes are the dominant paradigm for modeling sequences of events happening at irregular intervals. The standard way of learning in such models is by estimating the conditional intensity function. However, parameterizing the intensity function usually incurs several trade-offs. We show how to overcome the limitations of intensity-based approaches by directly modeling the conditional distribution of inter-event times. We draw on the literature on normalizing flows to design models that are flexible and efficient. We additionally propose a simple mixture model that matches the flexibility of flow-based models, but also permits sampling and computing moments in closed form. The proposed models achieve state-of-the-art performance in standard prediction tasks and are suitable for novel applications, such as learning sequence embeddings and imputing missing data.

Language models and specialized table embedding models have recently demonstrated strong performance on many tasks over tabular data. Researchers and practitioners are keen to leverage these models in many new application contexts; but limited understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of these models, and the table representations they generate, makes the process of finding a suitable model for a given task reliant on trial and error. There is an urgent need to gain a comprehensive understanding of these models to minimize inefficiency and failures in downstream usage. To address this need, we propose Observatory, a formal framework to systematically analyze embedding representations of relational tables. Motivated both by invariants of the relational data model and by statistical considerations regarding data distributions, we define eight primitive properties, and corresponding measures to quantitatively characterize table embeddings for these properties. Based on these properties, we define an extensible framework to evaluate language and table embedding models. We collect and synthesize a suite of datasets and use Observatory to analyze nine such models. Our analysis provides insights into the strengths and weaknesses of learned representations over tables. We find, for example, that some models are sensitive to table structure such as column order, that functional dependencies are rarely reflected in embeddings, and that specialized table embedding models have relatively lower sample fidelity. Such insights help researchers and practitioners better anticipate model behaviors and select appropriate models for their downstream tasks, while guiding researchers in the development of new models.

Many empirical studies of labor market questions rely on estimating relatively simple predictive models using small, carefully constructed longitudinal survey datasets based on hand-engineered features. Large Language Models (LLMs), trained on massive datasets, encode vast quantities of world knowledge and can be used for the next job prediction problem. However, while an off-the-shelf LLM produces plausible career trajectories when prompted, the probability with which an LLM predicts a particular job transition conditional on career history will not, in general, align with the true conditional probability in a given population. Recently, Vafa et al. (2024) introduced a transformer-based "foundation model", CAREER, trained using a large, unrepresentative resume dataset, that predicts transitions between jobs; it further demonstrated how transfer learning techniques can be used to leverage the foundation model to build better predictive models of both transitions and wages that reflect conditional transition probabilities found in nationally representative survey datasets. This paper considers an alternative where the fine-tuning of the CAREER foundation model is replaced by fine-tuning LLMs. For the task of next job prediction, we demonstrate that models trained with our approach outperform several alternatives in terms of predictive performance on the survey data, including traditional econometric models, CAREER, and LLMs with in-context learning, even though the LLM can in principle predict job titles that are not allowed in the survey data. Further, we show that our fine-tuned LLM-based models' predictions are more representative of the career trajectories of various workforce subpopulations than off-the-shelf LLM models and CAREER. We conduct experiments and analyses that highlight the sources of the gains in the performance of our models for representative predictions.

Pre-trained foundation models (FMs) have shown exceptional performance in univariate time series forecasting tasks. However, several practical challenges persist, including managing intricate dependencies among features and quantifying uncertainty in predictions. This study aims to tackle these critical limitations by introducing adapters; feature-space transformations that facilitate the effective use of pre-trained univariate time series FMs for multivariate tasks. Adapters operate by projecting multivariate inputs into a suitable latent space and applying the FM independently to each dimension. Inspired by the literature on representation learning and partially stochastic Bayesian neural networks, we present a range of adapters and optimization/inference strategies. Experiments conducted on both synthetic and real-world datasets confirm the efficacy of adapters, demonstrating substantial enhancements in forecasting accuracy and uncertainty quantification compared to baseline methods. Our framework, AdaPTS, positions adapters as a modular, scalable, and effective solution for leveraging time series FMs in multivariate contexts, thereby promoting their wider adoption in real-world applications. We release the code at https://github.com/abenechehab/AdaPTS.

Protein language models are a powerful tool for learning protein representations through pre-training on vast protein sequence datasets. However, traditional protein language models lack explicit structural supervision, despite its relevance to protein function. To address this issue, we introduce the integration of remote homology detection to distill structural information into protein language models without requiring explicit protein structures as input. We evaluate the impact of this structure-informed training on downstream protein function prediction tasks. Experimental results reveal consistent improvements in function annotation accuracy for EC number and GO term prediction. Performance on mutant datasets, however, varies based on the relationship between targeted properties and protein structures. This underscores the importance of considering this relationship when applying structure-aware training to protein function prediction tasks. Code and model weights are available at https://github.com/DeepGraphLearning/esm-s.

Learning effective protein representations is critical in a variety of tasks in biology such as predicting protein functions. Recent sequence representation learning methods based on Protein Language Models (PLMs) excel in sequence-based tasks, but their direct adaptation to tasks involving protein structures remains a challenge. In contrast, structure-based methods leverage 3D structural information with graph neural networks and geometric pre-training methods show potential in function prediction tasks, but still suffers from the limited number of available structures. To bridge this gap, our study undertakes a comprehensive exploration of joint protein representation learning by integrating a state-of-the-art PLM (ESM-2) with distinct structure encoders (GVP, GearNet, CDConv). We introduce three representation fusion strategies and explore different pre-training techniques. Our method achieves significant improvements over existing sequence- and structure-based methods, setting new state-of-the-art for function annotation. This study underscores several important design choices for fusing protein sequence and structure information. Our implementation is available at https://github.com/DeepGraphLearning/ESM-GearNet.

In this paper, we present SCOREQ, a novel approach for speech quality prediction. SCOREQ is a triplet loss function for contrastive regression that addresses the domain generalisation shortcoming exhibited by state of the art no-reference speech quality metrics. In the paper we: (i) illustrate the problem of L2 loss training failing at capturing the continuous nature of the mean opinion score (MOS) labels; (ii) demonstrate the lack of generalisation through a benchmarking evaluation across several speech domains; (iii) outline our approach and explore the impact of the architectural design decisions through incremental evaluation; (iv) evaluate the final model against state of the art models for a wide variety of data and domains. The results show that the lack of generalisation observed in state of the art speech quality metrics is addressed by SCOREQ. We conclude that using a triplet loss function for contrastive regression improves generalisation for speech quality prediction models but also has potential utility across a wide range of applications using regression-based predictive models.

Generalization beyond training data remains a central challenge in machine learning for biology. A common way to enhance generalization is self-supervised pre-training on large datasets. However, aiming to perform well on all possible proteins can limit a model's capacity to excel on any specific one, whereas experimentalists typically need accurate predictions for individual proteins they study, often not covered in training data. To address this limitation, we propose a method that enables self-supervised customization of protein language models to one target protein at a time, on the fly, and without assuming any additional data. We show that our Protein Test-Time Training (ProteinTTT) method consistently enhances generalization across different models, their sizes, and datasets. ProteinTTT improves structure prediction for challenging targets, achieves new state-of-the-art results on protein fitness prediction, and enhances function prediction on two tasks. Through two challenging case studies, we also show that customization via ProteinTTT achieves more accurate antibody-antigen loop modeling and enhances 19% of structures in the Big Fantastic Virus Database, delivering improved predictions where general-purpose AlphaFold2 and ESMFold struggle.

Real-time multi-person pose estimation presents significant challenges in balancing speed and precision. While two-stage top-down methods slow down as the number of people in the image increases, existing one-stage methods often fail to simultaneously deliver high accuracy and real-time performance. This paper introduces RTMO, a one-stage pose estimation framework that seamlessly integrates coordinate classification by representing keypoints using dual 1-D heatmaps within the YOLO architecture, achieving accuracy comparable to top-down methods while maintaining high speed. We propose a dynamic coordinate classifier and a tailored loss function for heatmap learning, specifically designed to address the incompatibilities between coordinate classification and dense prediction models. RTMO outperforms state-of-the-art one-stage pose estimators, achieving 1.1% higher AP on COCO while operating about 9 times faster with the same backbone. Our largest model, RTMO-l, attains 74.8% AP on COCO val2017 and 141 FPS on a single V100 GPU, demonstrating its efficiency and accuracy. The code and models are available at https://github.com/open-mmlab/mmpose/tree/main/projects/rtmo.

Generative protein language models are a natural way to design new proteins with desired functions. However, current models are either difficult to direct to produce a protein from a specific family of interest, or must be trained on a large multiple sequence alignment (MSA) from the specific family of interest, making them unable to benefit from transfer learning across families. To address this, we propose Protein Evolutionary Transformer (PoET), an autoregressive generative model of whole protein families that learns to generate sets of related proteins as sequences-of-sequences across tens of millions of natural protein sequence clusters. PoET can be used as a retrieval-augmented language model to generate and score arbitrary modifications conditioned on any protein family of interest, and can extrapolate from short context lengths to generalize well even for small families. This is enabled by a unique Transformer layer; we model tokens sequentially within sequences while attending between sequences order invariantly, allowing PoET to scale to context lengths beyond those used during training. In extensive experiments on deep mutational scanning datasets, we show that PoET outperforms existing protein language models and evolutionary sequence models for variant function prediction across proteins of all MSA depths. We also demonstrate PoET's ability to controllably generate new protein sequences.

Deep learning has deeply influenced protein science, enabling breakthroughs in predicting protein properties, higher-order structures, and molecular interactions. This paper introduces DeepProtein, a comprehensive and user-friendly deep learning library tailored for protein-related tasks. It enables researchers to seamlessly address protein data with cutting-edge deep learning models. To assess model performance, we establish a benchmark evaluating different deep learning architectures across multiple protein-related tasks, including protein function prediction, subcellular localization prediction, protein-protein interaction prediction, and protein structure prediction. Furthermore, we introduce DeepProt-T5, a series of fine-tuned Prot-T5-based models that achieve state-of-the-art performance on four benchmark tasks, while demonstrating competitive results on six of others. Comprehensive documentation and tutorials are available which could ensure accessibility and support reproducibility. Built upon the widely used drug discovery library DeepPurpose, DeepProtein is publicly available at https://github.com/jiaqingxie/DeepProtein.

Electrocardiogram (ECG) is a widely used tool for assessing cardiac function due to its low cost and accessibility. Emergent research shows that ECGs can help make predictions on key outcomes traditionally derived from more complex modalities such as echocardiograms (ECHO), enabling the use of ECGs as a more accessible method to predict broader measurements of cardiac function. ECHO, in particular, are of great importance because they require considerable hospital resources while playing a key role in clinical cardiac assessment. To aid this use case, we introduce EchoingECG, a probabilistic student-teacher model that leverages uncertainty-aware ECG embeddings and ECHO supervision to improve ECG-based cardiac function prediction. Our approach integrates Probabilistic Cross-Modal Embeddings (PCME++), a probabilistic contrastive framework, with ECHO-CLIP, a vision-language pre-trained model trained on ECHO-text pairs, to distill ECHO knowledge into ECG representations. Through experiments and external validation, we showed that EchoingECG outperforms state-of-the-art foundation ECG models in zero-shot, few-shot, and fine-tune settings for ECHO predictions based on ECG. We also highlighted that variance estimation (enabled through our method) enhanced our understanding of model performance by identifying underlying regions of uncertainty within ECGs. The code is available: https://github.com/mcintoshML/EchoingECG.

The field of Automatic Machine Learning (AutoML) has recently attained impressive results, including the discovery of state-of-the-art machine learning solutions, such as neural image classifiers. This is often done by applying an evolutionary search method, which samples multiple candidate solutions from a large space and evaluates the quality of each candidate through a long training process. As a result, the search tends to be slow. In this paper, we show that large efficiency gains can be obtained by employing a fast unified functional hash, especially through the functional equivalence caching technique, which we also present. The central idea is to detect by hashing when the search method produces equivalent candidates, which occurs very frequently, and this way avoid their costly re-evaluation. Our hash is "functional" in that it identifies equivalent candidates even if they were represented or coded differently, and it is "unified" in that the same algorithm can hash arbitrary representations; e.g. compute graphs, imperative code, or lambda functions. As evidence, we show dramatic improvements on multiple AutoML domains, including neural architecture search and algorithm discovery. Finally, we consider the effect of hash collisions, evaluation noise, and search distribution through empirical analysis. Altogether, we hope this paper may serve as a guide to hashing techniques in AutoML.

Language models have recently been shown capable of performing regression tasks wherein numeric predictions are represented as decoded strings. In this work, we provide theoretical grounds for this capability and furthermore investigate the utility of causal auto-regressive sequence models when they are applied to any feature representation. We find that, despite being trained in the usual way - for next-token prediction via cross-entropy loss - decoding-based regression is as performant as traditional approaches for tabular regression tasks, while being flexible enough to capture arbitrary distributions, such as in the task of density estimation.

Memorization, or the tendency of large language models (LLMs) to output entire sequences from their training data verbatim, is a key concern for safely deploying language models. In particular, it is vital to minimize a model's memorization of sensitive datapoints such as those containing personal identifiable information (PII). The prevalence of such undesirable memorization can pose issues for model trainers, and may even require discarding an otherwise functional model. We therefore seek to predict which sequences will be memorized before a large model's full train-time by extrapolating the memorization behavior of lower-compute trial runs. We measure memorization of the Pythia model suite and plot scaling laws for forecasting memorization, allowing us to provide equi-compute recommendations to maximize the reliability (recall) of such predictions. We additionally provide further novel discoveries on the distribution of memorization scores across models and data. We release all code and data necessary to reproduce the results in this paper at https://github.com/EleutherAI/pythia

Motivated by recent advances in large language models for Natural Language Processing (NLP), we design a time-series foundation model for forecasting whose out-of-the-box zero-shot performance on a variety of public datasets comes close to the accuracy of state-of-the-art supervised forecasting models for each individual dataset. Our model is based on pretraining a patched-decoder style attention model on a large time-series corpus, and can work well across different forecasting history lengths, prediction lengths and temporal granularities.

Recent sequential recommendation models rely increasingly on consecutive short-term user-item interaction sequences to model user interests. These approaches have, however, raised concerns about both short- and long-term interests. (1) {\it short-term}: interaction sequences may not result from a monolithic interest, but rather from several intertwined interests, even within a short period of time, resulting in their failures to model skip behaviors; (2) {\it long-term}: interaction sequences are primarily observed sparsely at discrete intervals, other than consecutively over the long run. This renders difficulty in inferring long-term interests, since only discrete interest representations can be derived, without taking into account interest dynamics across sequences. In this study, we address these concerns by learning (1) multi-scale representations of short-term interests; and (2) dynamics-aware representations of long-term interests. To this end, we present an Interest Dynamics modeling framework using generative Neural Processes, coined IDNP, to model user interests from a functional perspective. IDNP learns a global interest function family to define each user's long-term interest as a function instantiation, manifesting interest dynamics through function continuity. Specifically, IDNP first encodes each user's short-term interactions into multi-scale representations, which are then summarized as user context. By combining latent global interest with user context, IDNP then reconstructs long-term user interest functions and predicts interactions at upcoming query timestep. Moreover, IDNP can model such interest functions even when interaction sequences are limited and non-consecutive. Extensive experiments on four real-world datasets demonstrate that our model outperforms state-of-the-arts on various evaluation metrics.

Although large language models (LLMs) are increasingly capable, these capabilities are unevenly distributed: they excel at formal linguistic tasks, such as producing fluent, grammatical text, but struggle more with functional linguistic tasks like reasoning and consistent fact retrieval. Inspired by neuroscience, recent work suggests that to succeed on both formal and functional linguistic tasks, LLMs should use different mechanisms for each; such localization could either be built-in or emerge spontaneously through training. In this paper, we ask: do current models, with fast-improving functional linguistic abilities, exhibit distinct localization of formal and functional linguistic mechanisms? We answer this by finding and comparing the "circuits", or minimal computational subgraphs, responsible for various formal and functional tasks. Comparing 5 LLMs across 10 distinct tasks, we find that while there is indeed little overlap between circuits for formal and functional tasks, there is also little overlap between formal linguistic tasks, as exists in the human brain. Thus, a single formal linguistic network, unified and distinct from functional task circuits, remains elusive. However, in terms of cross-task faithfulness - the ability of one circuit to solve another's task - we observe a separation between formal and functional mechanisms, suggesting that shared mechanisms between formal tasks may exist.

Tucker decomposition is a powerful tensor model to handle multi-aspect data. It demonstrates the low-rank property by decomposing the grid-structured data as interactions between a core tensor and a set of object representations (factors). A fundamental assumption of such decomposition is that there are finite objects in each aspect or mode, corresponding to discrete indexes of data entries. However, real-world data is often not naturally posed in this setting. For example, geographic data is represented as continuous indexes of latitude and longitude coordinates, and cannot fit tensor models directly. To generalize Tucker decomposition to such scenarios, we propose Functional Bayesian Tucker Decomposition (FunBaT). We treat the continuous-indexed data as the interaction between the Tucker core and a group of latent functions. We use Gaussian processes (GP) as functional priors to model the latent functions. Then, we convert each GP into a state-space prior by constructing an equivalent stochastic differential equation (SDE) to reduce computational cost. An efficient inference algorithm is developed for scalable posterior approximation based on advanced message-passing techniques. The advantage of our method is shown in both synthetic data and several real-world applications. We release the code of FunBaT at https://github.com/xuangu-fang/Functional-Bayesian-Tucker-Decomposition.

Methods for neural network hyperparameter optimization and meta-modeling are computationally expensive due to the need to train a large number of model configurations. In this paper, we show that standard frequentist regression models can predict the final performance of partially trained model configurations using features based on network architectures, hyperparameters, and time-series validation performance data. We empirically show that our performance prediction models are much more effective than prominent Bayesian counterparts, are simpler to implement, and are faster to train. Our models can predict final performance in both visual classification and language modeling domains, are effective for predicting performance of drastically varying model architectures, and can even generalize between model classes. Using these prediction models, we also propose an early stopping method for hyperparameter optimization and meta-modeling, which obtains a speedup of a factor up to 6x in both hyperparameter optimization and meta-modeling. Finally, we empirically show that our early stopping method can be seamlessly incorporated into both reinforcement learning-based architecture selection algorithms and bandit based search methods. Through extensive experimentation, we empirically show our performance prediction models and early stopping algorithm are state-of-the-art in terms of prediction accuracy and speedup achieved while still identifying the optimal model configurations.

In this paper, we tackle the important yet under-investigated problem of making long-horizon prediction of event sequences. Existing state-of-the-art models do not perform well at this task due to their autoregressive structure. We propose HYPRO, a hybridly normalized probabilistic model that naturally fits this task: its first part is an autoregressive base model that learns to propose predictions; its second part is an energy function that learns to reweight the proposals such that more realistic predictions end up with higher probabilities. We also propose efficient training and inference algorithms for this model. Experiments on multiple real-world datasets demonstrate that our proposed HYPRO model can significantly outperform previous models at making long-horizon predictions of future events. We also conduct a range of ablation studies to investigate the effectiveness of each component of our proposed methods.

Interactions among features are central to understanding the behavior of machine learning models. Recent research has made significant strides in detecting and quantifying feature interactions in single predictive models. However, we argue that the feature interactions extracted from a single pre-specified model may not be trustworthy since: a well-trained predictive model may not preserve the true feature interactions and there exist multiple well-performing predictive models that differ in feature interaction strengths. Thus, we recommend exploring feature interaction strengths in a model class of approximately equally accurate predictive models. In this work, we introduce the feature interaction score (FIS) in the context of a Rashomon set, representing a collection of models that achieve similar accuracy on a given task. We propose a general and practical algorithm to calculate the FIS in the model class. We demonstrate the properties of the FIS via synthetic data and draw connections to other areas of statistics. Additionally, we introduce a Halo plot for visualizing the feature interaction variance in high-dimensional space and a swarm plot for analyzing FIS in a Rashomon set. Experiments with recidivism prediction and image classification illustrate how feature interactions can vary dramatically in importance for similarly accurate predictive models. Our results suggest that the proposed FIS can provide valuable insights into the nature of feature interactions in machine learning models.

The remarkable success of large language models (LLMs) stems from their ability to consolidate vast amounts of knowledge into the memory during pre-training and to retrieve it from the memory during inference, enabling advanced capabilities such as knowledge memorization, instruction-following and reasoning. However, the mechanisms of memory retrieval and consolidation in LLMs remain poorly understood. In this paper, we propose the function token hypothesis to explain the workings of LLMs: During inference, function tokens activate the most predictive features from context and govern next token prediction (memory retrieval). During pre-training, predicting the next tokens (usually content tokens) that follow function tokens increases the number of learned features of LLMs and updates the model parameters (memory consolidation). Function tokens here roughly correspond to function words in linguistics, including punctuation marks, articles, prepositions, and conjunctions, in contrast to content tokens. We provide extensive experimental evidence supporting this hypothesis. Using bipartite graph analysis, we show that a small number of function tokens activate the majority of features. Case studies further reveal how function tokens activate the most predictive features from context to direct next token prediction. We also find that during pre-training, the training loss is dominated by predicting the next content tokens following function tokens, which forces the function tokens to select the most predictive features from context.

Often we wish to predict a large number of variables that depend on each other as well as on other observed variables. Structured prediction methods are essentially a combination of classification and graphical modeling, combining the ability of graphical models to compactly model multivariate data with the ability of classification methods to perform prediction using large sets of input features. This tutorial describes conditional random fields, a popular probabilistic method for structured prediction. CRFs have seen wide application in natural language processing, computer vision, and bioinformatics. We describe methods for inference and parameter estimation for CRFs, including practical issues for implementing large scale CRFs. We do not assume previous knowledge of graphical modeling, so this tutorial is intended to be useful to practitioners in a wide variety of fields.

Physiological time series signals reflect complex, multi-scale dynamical processes of the human body. Existing modeling studies focus on static tasks such as classification, event forecasting, or short-horizon next step prediction, while long-horizon signal-level forecasting and predictive nature of physiological signals remain underexplored. We introduce NormWear-2, a world model that encodes both multivariate physiological signals and clinical intervention variables into a shared latent space and models their joint temporal evolution as a dynamical system. Our approach combines inference from prior pre-trained knowledge (intuition) with instant non-parametric latent state transition adaptation (insight), enabling coherent forecasting across multiple temporal scales, conditioned on heterogeneous clinical interventions. During the pretraining phase, we find that chaos-theoretic balancing of dynamical regime diversity yields more robust representations, with a smaller balanced corpus outperforming one twice its size and capturing bifurcation regimes. We evaluate the world model performance across diverse real-world physiological datasets spanning heterogeneous temporal resolutions and intervention regimes, covering daily life, point-of-care, and clinical settings, including fitness planning, hemodialysis, diabetes management, and surgical monitoring. These evaluation datasets comprise records from 8,026 subjects, spanning study durations from 3.2 hours for high-resolution signal data to 2.3 years for longitudinal clinical biomarker tracking. NormWear-2 achieves the best overall forecasting performance across time, frequency, and latent representation domains, with significant improvements over state-of-the-art time series foundation models, while maintaining competitive downstream representation quality, providing a step toward general-purpose world models for physiological signals.

Recent work has shown that feed-forward networks (FFNs) in pre-trained Transformers are a key component, storing various linguistic and factual knowledge. However, the computational patterns of FFNs are still unclear. In this work, we study the computational patterns of FFNs and observe that most inputs only activate a tiny ratio of neurons of FFNs. This phenomenon is similar to the sparsity of the human brain, which drives research on functional partitions of the human brain. To verify whether functional partitions also emerge in FFNs, we propose to convert a model into its MoE version with the same parameters, namely MoEfication. Specifically, MoEfication consists of two phases: (1) splitting the parameters of FFNs into multiple functional partitions as experts, and (2) building expert routers to decide which experts will be used for each input. Experimental results show that MoEfication can conditionally use 10% to 30% of FFN parameters while maintaining over 95% original performance for different models on various downstream tasks. Besides, MoEfication brings two advantages: (1) it significantly reduces the FLOPS of inference, i.e., 2x speedup with 25% of FFN parameters, and (2) it provides a fine-grained perspective to study the inner mechanism of FFNs. The source code of this paper can be obtained from https://github.com/thunlp/MoEfication.

We present a smoothly broken power law functional form (that we refer to as a Broken Neural Scaling Law (BNSL)) that accurately models & extrapolates the scaling behaviors of deep neural networks (i.e. how the evaluation metric of interest varies as amount of compute used for training (or inference), number of model parameters, training dataset size, model input size, number of training steps, or upstream performance varies) for various architectures & for each of various tasks within a large & diverse set of upstream & downstream tasks, in zero-shot, prompted, & finetuned settings. This set includes large-scale vision, language, audio, video, diffusion, generative modeling, multimodal learning, contrastive learning, AI alignment, AI capabilities, robotics, out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization, continual learning, transfer learning, uncertainty estimation / calibration, OOD detection, adversarial robustness, distillation, sparsity, retrieval, quantization, pruning, fairness, molecules, computer programming/coding, math word problems, "emergent phase transitions", arithmetic, supervised learning, unsupervised/self-supervised learning, & reinforcement learning (single agent & multi-agent). When compared to other functional forms for neural scaling, this functional form yields extrapolations of scaling behavior that are considerably more accurate on this set. Moreover, this functional form accurately models & extrapolates scaling behavior that other functional forms are incapable of expressing such as the nonmonotonic transitions present in the scaling behavior of phenomena such as double descent & the delayed, sharp inflection points present in the scaling behavior of tasks such as arithmetic. Lastly, we use this functional form to glean insights about the limit of the predictability of scaling behavior. Code is available at https://github.com/ethancaballero/broken_neural_scaling_laws

Expanding on neural operators, we propose a novel framework for stochastic process learning across arbitrary domains. In particular, we develop operator flow matching (OFM) for learning stochastic process priors on function spaces. OFM provides the probability density of the values of any collection of points and enables mathematically tractable functional regression at new points with mean and density estimation. Our method outperforms state-of-the-art models in stochastic process learning, functional regression, and prior learning.

Despite their success in numerous fields, the potential of foundation models for modeling and understanding human behavior remains largely unexplored. We introduce Be.FM, one of the first open foundation models designed for human behavior modeling. Built upon open-source large language models and fine-tuned on a diverse range of behavioral data, Be.FM can be used to understand and predict human decision-making. We construct a comprehensive set of benchmark tasks for testing the capabilities of behavioral foundation models. Our results demonstrate that Be.FM can predict behaviors, infer characteristics of individuals and populations, generate insights about contexts, and apply behavioral science knowledge.

Recent research on time series foundation models has primarily focused on forecasting, leaving it unclear how generalizable their learned representations are. In this study, we examine whether frozen pre-trained forecasting models can provide effective representations for classification. To this end, we compare different representation extraction strategies and introduce two model-agnostic embedding augmentations. Our experiments show that the best forecasting models achieve classification accuracy that matches or even surpasses that of state-of-the-art models pre-trained specifically for classification. Moreover, we observe a positive correlation between forecasting and classification performance. These findings challenge the assumption that task-specific pre-training is necessary, and suggest that learning to forecast may provide a powerful route toward constructing general-purpose time series foundation models.

TabPFN [Hollmann et al., 2023], a Transformer model pretrained to perform in-context learning on fresh tabular classification problems, was presented at the last ICLR conference. To better understand its behavior, we treat it as a black-box function approximator generator and observe its generated function approximations on a varied selection of training datasets. Exploring its learned inductive biases in this manner, we observe behavior that is at turns either brilliant or baffling. We conclude this post with thoughts on how these results might inform the development, evaluation, and application of prior-data fitted networks (PFNs) in the future.

It is often useful to compactly summarize important properties of model parameters and training data so that they can be used later without storing and/or iterating over the entire dataset. As a specific case, we consider estimating the Function Space Distance (FSD) over a training set, i.e. the average discrepancy between the outputs of two neural networks. We propose a Linearized Activation Function TRick (LAFTR) and derive an efficient approximation to FSD for ReLU neural networks. The key idea is to approximate the architecture as a linear network with stochastic gating. Despite requiring only one parameter per unit of the network, our approach outcompetes other parametric approximations with larger memory requirements. Applied to continual learning, our parametric approximation is competitive with state-of-the-art nonparametric approximations, which require storing many training examples. Furthermore, we show its efficacy in estimating influence functions accurately and detecting mislabeled examples without expensive iterations over the entire dataset.

Researchers build scaling laws to forecast the training performance of expensive large-scale runs with larger model size N and data size D. These laws assume that other training hyperparameters are optimally chosen, which can require significant effort and, in some cases, be impossible due to external hardware constraints. To improve predictability across a broader set of hyperparameters and enable simpler tuning at scale, we propose learning a Configuration-to-Performance Scaling Law (CPL): a mapping from the full training configuration to training performance. Because no simple functional form can express this mapping, we parameterize it with a large language model (LLM), and fit it with diverse open-source pretraining logs across multiple sources, yielding a Neural Configuration-to-Performance Scaling Law (NCPL). NCPL accurately predicts how training configurations influence the final pretraining loss, achieving 20-40% lower prediction error than the configuration-agnostic Chinchilla law and generalizing to runs using up to 10 x more compute than any run in the training set. It further supports joint tuning of multiple hyperparameters with performance comparable to hyperparameter scaling law baselines. Finally, NCPL naturally and effectively extends to richer prediction targets such as loss-curve prediction.

We present a joint forecasting framework for time series prediction that contrasts with traditional direct or recursive methods. This framework achieves state-of-the-art performance for our designed foundation model, YingLong, and reveals a novel scaling effect: longer outputs significantly enhance model accuracy due to delayed chain-of-thought reasoning in our non-causal approach. YingLong is a non-causal, bidirectional attention encoder-only transformer trained through masked token recovery, aligning more effectively with language understanding tasks than with generation tasks. Additionally, we boost performance by tackling output variance with a multi-input ensemble. We release four foundation models ranging from 6M to 300M parameters, demonstrating superior results in zero-shot tasks on the ETT and Weather datasets. YingLong achieves more than 60% best performance. To ensure generalizability, we assessed the models using the GIFT-Eval benchmark, which comprises 23 time series datasets across 7 domains. Yinglong significantly outperformed the best time-series foundation models, end-to-end trained models by 14% and 44% in rank respectively.The pretrained 300M model is available at https://huggingface.co/qcw1314/YingLong_300m

We present a foundation model-derived method to identify highly informative tokens and events in electronic health records. Our approach considers incoming data in the entire context of a patient's hospitalization and so can flag anomalous events that rule-based approaches would consider within a normal range. We demonstrate that the events our model flags are significant for predicting downstream patient outcomes and that a fraction of events identified as carrying little information can safely be dropped. Additionally, we show how informativeness can help interpret the predictions of prognostic models trained on foundation model-derived representations.

Wearable devices record physiological and behavioral signals that can improve health predictions. While foundation models are increasingly used for such predictions, they have been primarily applied to low-level sensor data, despite behavioral data often being more informative due to their alignment with physiologically relevant timescales and quantities. We develop foundation models of such behavioral signals using over 2.5B hours of wearable data from 162K individuals, systematically optimizing architectures and tokenization strategies for this unique dataset. Evaluated on 57 health-related tasks, our model shows strong performance across diverse real-world applications including individual-level classification and time-varying health state prediction. The model excels in behavior-driven tasks like sleep prediction, and improves further when combined with representations of raw sensor data. These results underscore the importance of tailoring foundation model design to wearables and demonstrate the potential to enable new health applications.

Language models have been effective in a wide range of applications, yet the most sophisticated models are often proprietary. For example, GPT-4 by OpenAI and various models by Anthropic are expensive and consume substantial energy. In contrast, the open-source community has produced competitive models, like Llama3. Furthermore, niche-specific smaller language models, such as those tailored for legal, medical or financial tasks, have outperformed their proprietary counterparts. This paper introduces a novel approach that employs functional tokens to integrate multiple open-source models, each optimized for particular tasks. Our newly developed Octopus v4 model leverages functional tokens to intelligently direct user queries to the most appropriate vertical model and reformat the query to achieve the best performance. Octopus v4, an evolution of the Octopus v1, v2, and v3 models, excels in selection and parameter understanding and reformatting. Additionally, we explore the use of graph as a versatile data structure that effectively coordinates multiple open-source models by harnessing the capabilities of the Octopus model and functional tokens. Use our open-sourced GitHub (https://www.nexa4ai.com/) to try Octopus v4 models (https://huggingface.co/NexaAIDev/Octopus-v4), and contrite to a larger graph of language models. By activating models less than 10B parameters, we achieved SOTA MMLU score of 74.8 among the same level models.

Modern language models define distributions over strings, but downstream tasks often require different output formats. For instance, a model that generates byte-pair strings does not directly produce word-level predictions, and a DNA model does not directly produce amino-acid sequences. In such cases, a deterministic string-to-string transformation can convert the model's output to the desired form. This is a familiar pattern in probability theory: applying a function f to a random variable Xsim p yields a transformed random variable f(X) with an induced distribution. While such transformations are occasionally used in language modeling, prior work does not treat them as yielding new, fully functional language models. We formalize this perspective and introduce a general framework for language models derived from deterministic string-to-string transformations. We focus on transformations representable as finite-state transducers -- a commonly used state-machine abstraction for efficient string-to-string mappings. We develop algorithms that compose a language model with an FST to *marginalize* over source strings mapping to a given target, propagating probabilities through the transducer without altering model parameters and enabling *conditioning* on transformed outputs. We present an exact algorithm, an efficient approximation, and a theoretical analysis. We conduct experiments in three domains: converting language models from tokens to bytes, from tokens to words, and from DNA to amino acids. These experiments demonstrate inference-time adaptation of pretrained language models to match application-specific output requirements.

We introduce the task of predicting functional 3D scene graphs for real-world indoor environments from posed RGB-D images. Unlike traditional 3D scene graphs that focus on spatial relationships of objects, functional 3D scene graphs capture objects, interactive elements, and their functional relationships. Due to the lack of training data, we leverage foundation models, including visual language models (VLMs) and large language models (LLMs), to encode functional knowledge. We evaluate our approach on an extended SceneFun3D dataset and a newly collected dataset, FunGraph3D, both annotated with functional 3D scene graphs. Our method significantly outperforms adapted baselines, including Open3DSG and ConceptGraph, demonstrating its effectiveness in modeling complex scene functionalities. We also demonstrate downstream applications such as 3D question answering and robotic manipulation using functional 3D scene graphs. See our project page at https://openfungraph.github.io

Despite the success of convolutional neural networks (CNNs) in many academic benchmarks for computer vision tasks, their application in the real-world is still facing fundamental challenges. One of these open problems is the inherent lack of robustness, unveiled by the striking effectiveness of adversarial attacks. Current attack methods are able to manipulate the network's prediction by adding specific but small amounts of noise to the input. In turn, adversarial training (AT) aims to achieve robustness against such attacks and ideally a better model generalization ability by including adversarial samples in the trainingset. However, an in-depth analysis of the resulting robust models beyond adversarial robustness is still pending. In this paper, we empirically analyze a variety of adversarially trained models that achieve high robust accuracies when facing state-of-the-art attacks and we show that AT has an interesting side-effect: it leads to models that are significantly less overconfident with their decisions, even on clean data than non-robust models. Further, our analysis of robust models shows that not only AT but also the model's building blocks (like activation functions and pooling) have a strong influence on the models' prediction confidences. Data & Project website: https://github.com/GeJulia/robustness_confidences_evaluation

Deep neural networks trained on Functional Connectivity (FC) networks extracted from functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI) data have gained popularity due to the increasing availability of data and advances in model architectures, including Graph Neural Network (GNN). Recent research on the application of GNN to FC suggests that exploiting the time-varying properties of the FC could significantly improve the accuracy and interpretability of the model prediction. However, the high cost of acquiring high-quality fMRI data and corresponding phenotypic labels poses a hurdle to their application in real-world settings, such that a model na\"ively trained in a supervised fashion can suffer from insufficient performance or a lack of generalization on a small number of data. In addition, most Self-Supervised Learning (SSL) approaches for GNNs to date adopt a contrastive strategy, which tends to lose appropriate semantic information when the graph structure is perturbed or does not leverage both spatial and temporal information simultaneously. In light of these challenges, we propose a generative SSL approach that is tailored to effectively harness spatio-temporal information within dynamic FC. Our empirical results, experimented with large-scale (>50,000) fMRI datasets, demonstrate that our approach learns valuable representations and enables the construction of accurate and robust models when fine-tuned for downstream tasks.

In reasoning about sequential events it is natural to pose probabilistic queries such as "when will event A occur next" or "what is the probability of A occurring before B", with applications in areas such as user modeling, medicine, and finance. However, with machine learning shifting towards neural autoregressive models such as RNNs and transformers, probabilistic querying has been largely restricted to simple cases such as next-event prediction. This is in part due to the fact that future querying involves marginalization over large path spaces, which is not straightforward to do efficiently in such models. In this paper we introduce a general typology for predictive queries in neural autoregressive sequence models and show that such queries can be systematically represented by sets of elementary building blocks. We leverage this typology to develop new query estimation methods based on beam search, importance sampling, and hybrids. Across four large-scale sequence datasets from different application domains, as well as for the GPT-2 language model, we demonstrate the ability to make query answering tractable for arbitrary queries in exponentially-large predictive path-spaces, and find clear differences in cost-accuracy tradeoffs between search and sampling methods.

Information flows by routes inside the network via mechanisms implemented in the model. These routes can be represented as graphs where nodes correspond to token representations and edges to operations inside the network. We automatically build these graphs in a top-down manner, for each prediction leaving only the most important nodes and edges. In contrast to the existing workflows relying on activation patching, we do this through attribution: this allows us to efficiently uncover existing circuits with just a single forward pass. Additionally, the applicability of our method is far beyond patching: we do not need a human to carefully design prediction templates, and we can extract information flow routes for any prediction (not just the ones among the allowed templates). As a result, we can talk about model behavior in general, for specific types of predictions, or different domains. We experiment with Llama 2 and show that the role of some attention heads is overall important, e.g. previous token heads and subword merging heads. Next, we find similarities in Llama 2 behavior when handling tokens of the same part of speech. Finally, we show that some model components can be specialized on domains such as coding or multilingual texts.

Progress in large language models is constrained by an evaluation bottleneck: build a benchmark, evaluate models and settings, then iterate. We therefore ask a simple question: can we forecast outcomes before running any experiments? We study text-only performance forecasting: estimating a model's score from a redacted task description and intended configuration, with no access to dataset instances. To support systematic study, we curate PRECOG, a corpus of redacted description-performance pairs spanning diverse tasks, domains, and metrics. Experiments show the task is challenging but feasible: models equipped with a retrieval module that excludes source papers achieve moderate prediction performance with well-calibrated uncertainty, reaching mean absolute error as low as 8.7 on the Accuracy subset at high-confidence thresholds. Our analysis indicates that stronger reasoning models engage in diverse, iterative querying, whereas current open-source models lag and often skip retrieval or gather evidence with limited diversity. We further test a zero-leakage setting, forecasting on newly released datasets or experiments before their papers are indexed, where GPT-5 with built-in web search still attains nontrivial prediction accuracy. Overall, our corpus and analyses offer an initial step toward open-ended anticipatory evaluation, supporting difficulty estimation and smarter experiment prioritization.

Hollmann et al. (Nature 637 (2025) 319-326) recently introduced TabPFN, a transformer-based deep learning model for regression and classification on tabular data, which they claim "outperforms all previous methods on datasets with up to 10,000 samples by a wide margin, using substantially less training time." Furthermore, they have called TabPFN a "foundation model" for tabular data, as it can support "data generation, density estimation, learning reusable embeddings and fine-tuning". In this paper, we provide a tailored explanation of how TabPFN works for a statistics audience, by emphasizing its interpretation as approximate Bayesian inference. We then explore the significance of TabPFN to the field of statistics: We show that an out-of-the-box application of TabPFN can sometimes outperform specialized state-of-the-art methods for semi-supervised parameter estimation, prediction under covariate shift, and heterogeneous treatment effect estimation. As a partial explanation for the predictive effectiveness of TabPFN, we show that it can simultaneously adapt to both nonparametric structure and parametric structure, for instance, sometimes outperforming LASSO even when assumptions are correctly specified. All experiments can be reproduced using the code provided at https://github.com/qinglong-tian/tabpfn_study (https://github.com/qinglong-tian/tabpfn_study).

Time series forecasting (TSF) remains a challenging and largely unsolved problem in machine learning, despite significant recent efforts leveraging Large Language Models (LLMs), which predominantly rely on Transformer architectures. Empirical evidence consistently shows that even powerful Transformers often fail to outperform much simpler models, e.g., linear models, on TSF tasks; however, a rigorous theoretical understanding of this phenomenon remains limited. In this paper, we provide a theoretical analysis of Transformers' limitations for TSF through the lens of In-Context Learning (ICL) theory. Specifically, under AR(p) data, we establish that: (1) Linear Self-Attention (LSA) models cannot achieve lower expected MSE than classical linear models for in-context forecasting; (2) as the context length approaches to infinity, LSA asymptotically recovers the optimal linear predictor; and (3) under Chain-of-Thought (CoT) style inference, predictions collapse to the mean exponentially. We empirically validate these findings through carefully designed experiments. Our theory not only sheds light on several previously underexplored phenomena but also offers practical insights for designing more effective forecasting architectures. We hope our work encourages the broader research community to revisit the fundamental theoretical limitations of TSF and to critically evaluate the direct application of increasingly sophisticated architectures without deeper scrutiny.

Although RDBs store vast amounts of rich, informative data spread across interconnected tables, the progress of predictive machine learning models as applied to such tasks arguably falls well behind advances in other domains such as computer vision or natural language processing. This deficit stems, at least in part, from the lack of established/public RDB benchmarks as needed for training and evaluation purposes. As a result, related model development thus far often defaults to tabular approaches trained on ubiquitous single-table benchmarks, or on the relational side, graph-based alternatives such as GNNs applied to a completely different set of graph datasets devoid of tabular characteristics. To more precisely target RDBs lying at the nexus of these two complementary regimes, we explore a broad class of baseline models predicated on: (i) converting multi-table datasets into graphs using various strategies equipped with efficient subsampling, while preserving tabular characteristics; and (ii) trainable models with well-matched inductive biases that output predictions based on these input subgraphs. Then, to address the dearth of suitable public benchmarks and reduce siloed comparisons, we assemble a diverse collection of (i) large-scale RDB datasets and (ii) coincident predictive tasks. From a delivery standpoint, we operationalize the above four dimensions (4D) of exploration within a unified, scalable open-source toolbox called 4DBInfer. We conclude by presenting evaluations using 4DBInfer, the results of which highlight the importance of considering each such dimension in the design of RDB predictive models, as well as the limitations of more naive approaches such as simply joining adjacent tables. Our source code is released at https://github.com/awslabs/multi-table-benchmark .

Labeling neural network submodules with human-legible descriptions is useful for many downstream tasks: such descriptions can surface failures, guide interventions, and perhaps even explain important model behaviors. To date, most mechanistic descriptions of trained networks have involved small models, narrowly delimited phenomena, and large amounts of human labor. Labeling all human-interpretable sub-computations in models of increasing size and complexity will almost certainly require tools that can generate and validate descriptions automatically. Recently, techniques that use learned models in-the-loop for labeling have begun to gain traction, but methods for evaluating their efficacy are limited and ad-hoc. How should we validate and compare open-ended labeling tools? This paper introduces FIND (Function INterpretation and Description), a benchmark suite for evaluating the building blocks of automated interpretability methods. FIND contains functions that resemble components of trained neural networks, and accompanying descriptions of the kind we seek to generate. The functions are procedurally constructed across textual and numeric domains, and involve a range of real-world complexities, including noise, composition, approximation, and bias. We evaluate new and existing methods that use language models (LMs) to produce code-based and language descriptions of function behavior. We find that an off-the-shelf LM augmented with only black-box access to functions can sometimes infer their structure, acting as a scientist by forming hypotheses, proposing experiments, and updating descriptions in light of new data. However, LM-based descriptions tend to capture global function behavior and miss local corruptions. These results show that FIND will be useful for characterizing the performance of more sophisticated interpretability methods before they are applied to real-world models.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have catalyzed vibe coding, where users leverage LLMs to generate and iteratively refine code through natural language interactions until it passes their vibe check. Vibe check is tied to real-world human preference and goes beyond functionality: the solution should feel right, read cleanly, preserve intent, and remain correct. However, current code evaluation remains anchored to pass@k and captures only functional correctness, overlooking the non-functional instructions that users routinely apply. In this paper, we hypothesize that instruction following is the missing piece underlying vibe check that represents human preference in coding besides functional correctness. To quantify models' code instruction following capabilities with measurable signals, we present VeriCode, a taxonomy of 30 verifiable code instructions together with corresponding deterministic verifiers. We use the taxonomy to augment established evaluation suites, resulting in Vibe Checker, a testbed to assess both code instruction following and functional correctness. Upon evaluating 31 leading LLMs, we show that even the strongest models struggle to comply with multiple instructions and exhibit clear functional regression. Most importantly, a composite score of functional correctness and instruction following correlates the best with human preference, with the latter emerging as the primary differentiator on real-world programming tasks. Our work identifies core factors of the vibe check, providing a concrete path for benchmarking and developing models that better align with user preferences in coding.

Foundation models mark a profound paradigm shift in time series modeling, with task-specific models being superseded by general-purpose zero-shot models. Yet, current approaches primarily focus on forecasting, while real-world time series are often irregularly and partially observed, requiring models that can jointly forecast, impute missing values, and handle degraded sampling conditions. To address these challenges, we introduce TS-ICL, a novel probabilistic In-Context Learning encoder--regressor Transformer that unifies forecasting and imputation. TS-ICL formulates time series tasks as timestamp-aligned regression and naturally incorporates covariates by training on synthetic dependency structures generated from a novel causal data prior. Empirically, TS-ICL achieves a new state-of-the-art in imputation, while remaining competitive with leading forecasting foundation models across both univariate and covariate-aware benchmarks. It shows particularly strong performance in forecasting with partially observed look-back windows.

We develop a method to generate predictive regions that cover a multivariate response variable with a user-specified probability. Our work is composed of two components. First, we use a deep generative model to learn a representation of the response that has a unimodal distribution. Existing multiple-output quantile regression approaches are effective in such cases, so we apply them on the learned representation, and then transform the solution to the original space of the response. This process results in a flexible and informative region that can have an arbitrary shape, a property that existing methods lack. Second, we propose an extension of conformal prediction to the multivariate response setting that modifies any method to return sets with a pre-specified coverage level. The desired coverage is theoretically guaranteed in the finite-sample case for any distribution. Experiments conducted on both real and synthetic data show that our method constructs regions that are significantly smaller compared to existing techniques.

Memorization in language models is typically treated as a homogenous phenomenon, neglecting the specifics of the memorized data. We instead model memorization as the effect of a set of complex factors that describe each sample and relate it to the model and corpus. To build intuition around these factors, we break memorization down into a taxonomy: recitation of highly duplicated sequences, reconstruction of inherently predictable sequences, and recollection of sequences that are neither. We demonstrate the usefulness of our taxonomy by using it to construct a predictive model for memorization. By analyzing dependencies and inspecting the weights of the predictive model, we find that different factors influence the likelihood of memorization differently depending on the taxonomic category.

Modern data acquisition routinely produce massive amounts of event sequence data in various domains, such as social media, healthcare, and financial markets. These data often exhibit complicated short-term and long-term temporal dependencies. However, most of the existing recurrent neural network based point process models fail to capture such dependencies, and yield unreliable prediction performance. To address this issue, we propose a Transformer Hawkes Process (THP) model, which leverages the self-attention mechanism to capture long-term dependencies and meanwhile enjoys computational efficiency. Numerical experiments on various datasets show that THP outperforms existing models in terms of both likelihood and event prediction accuracy by a notable margin. Moreover, THP is quite general and can incorporate additional structural knowledge. We provide a concrete example, where THP achieves improved prediction performance for learning multiple point processes when incorporating their relational information.

Large language models (LLMs) are known for their exceptional performance in natural language processing, making them highly effective in many human life-related or even job-related tasks. The attention mechanism in the Transformer architecture is a critical component of LLMs, as it allows the model to selectively focus on specific input parts. The softmax unit, which is a key part of the attention mechanism, normalizes the attention scores. Hence, the performance of LLMs in various NLP tasks depends significantly on the crucial role played by the attention mechanism with the softmax unit. In-context learning, as one of the celebrated abilities of recent LLMs, is an important concept in querying LLMs such as ChatGPT. Without further parameter updates, Transformers can learn to predict based on few in-context examples. However, the reason why Transformers becomes in-context learners is not well understood. Recently, several works [ASA+22,GTLV22,ONR+22] have studied the in-context learning from a mathematical perspective based on a linear regression formulation min_x| Ax - b |_2, which show Transformers' capability of learning linear functions in context. In this work, we study the in-context learning based on a softmax regression formulation min_{x} | langle exp(Ax), {bf 1}_n rangle^{-1} exp(Ax) - b |_2 of Transformer's attention mechanism. We show the upper bounds of the data transformations induced by a single self-attention layer and by gradient-descent on a ell_2 regression loss for softmax prediction function, which imply that when training self-attention-only Transformers for fundamental regression tasks, the models learned by gradient-descent and Transformers show great similarity.

Unsupervised pretraining, which learns a useful representation using a large amount of unlabeled data to facilitate the learning of downstream tasks, is a critical component of modern large-scale machine learning systems. Despite its tremendous empirical success, the rigorous theoretical understanding of why unsupervised pretraining generally helps remains rather limited -- most existing results are restricted to particular methods or approaches for unsupervised pretraining with specialized structural assumptions. This paper studies a generic framework, where the unsupervised representation learning task is specified by an abstract class of latent variable models Phi and the downstream task is specified by a class of prediction functions Psi. We consider a natural approach of using Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) for unsupervised pretraining and Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM) for learning downstream tasks. We prove that, under a mild ''informative'' condition, our algorithm achieves an excess risk of mathcal{O}(mathcal{C_Phi/m} + mathcal{C_Psi/n}) for downstream tasks, where C_Phi, C_Psi are complexity measures of function classes Phi, Psi, and m, n are the number of unlabeled and labeled data respectively. Comparing to the baseline of mathcal{O}(mathcal{C_{Phi circ Psi}/n}) achieved by performing supervised learning using only the labeled data, our result rigorously shows the benefit of unsupervised pretraining when m gg n and C_{Phicirc Psi} > C_Psi. This paper further shows that our generic framework covers a wide range of approaches for unsupervised pretraining, including factor models, Gaussian mixture models, and contrastive learning.

Time series foundation models have shown impressive performance on a variety of tasks, across a wide range of domains, even in zero-shot settings. However, most of these models are designed to handle short univariate time series as an input. This limits their practical use, especially in domains such as healthcare with copious amounts of long and multivariate data with strong temporal and intra-variate dependencies. Our study bridges this gap by cataloging and systematically comparing various context expansion techniques from both language and time series domains, and introducing a novel compressive memory mechanism to allow encoder-only TSFMs to effectively model intra-variate dependencies. We demonstrate the benefits of our approach by imbuing MOMENT, a recent family of multi-task time series foundation models, with the multivariate context.