Daily Papers

Under modern test-time compute and agentic paradigms, language models process ever-longer sequences. Efficient text generation with transformer architectures is increasingly constrained by the Key-Value cache memory footprint and bandwidth. To address this limitation, we introduce Self-Pruned Key-Value Attention (SP-KV), a mechanism designed to predict future KV utility in order to reduce the size of the long-term KV cache. This strategy operates at a fine granularity: a lightweight utility predictor scores each key-value pair, and while recent KVs are always available via a local window, older pairs are written in the cache and used in global attention only if their predicted utility surpasses a given threshold. The LLM and the utility predictor are trained jointly end-to-end exclusively through next-token prediction loss, and are adapted from pretrained LLM checkpoints. Rather than enforcing a fixed compression ratio, SP-KV performs dynamic sparsification: the mechanism adapts to the input and typically reduces the KV cache size by a factor of 3 to 10times, longer sequences often being more compressible. This leads to vast improvements in memory usage and decoding speed, with little to no degradation of validation loss nor performance on a broad set of downstream tasks. Beyond serving as an effective KV-cache reduction mechanism, our method reveals structured layer- and head-specific sparsity patterns that we can use to guide the design of hybrid local-global attention architectures.

LLM-based agents increasingly rely on long-term memory to support multi-session reasoning and interaction, yet current systems provide little control over what information is retained. In practice, agents either accumulate large volumes of conversational content, including hallucinated or obsolete facts, or depend on opaque, fully LLM-driven memory policies that are costly and difficult to audit. As a result, memory admission remains a poorly specified and weakly controlled component in agent architectures. To address this gap, we propose Adaptive Memory Admission Control (A-MAC), a framework that treats memory admission as a structured decision problem. A-MAC decomposes memory value into five complementary and interpretable factors: future utility, factual confidence, semantic novelty, temporal recency, and content type prior. The framework combines lightweight rule-based feature extraction with a single LLM-assisted utility assessment, and learns domain-adaptive admission policies through cross-validated optimization. This design enables transparent and efficient control over long-term memory. Experiments on the LoCoMo benchmark show that A-MAC achieves a superior precision-recall tradeoff, improving F1 to 0.583 while reducing latency by 31% compared to state-of-the-art LLM-native memory systems. Ablation results identify content type prior as the most influential factor for reliable memory admission. These findings demonstrate that explicit and interpretable admission control is a critical design principle for scalable and reliable memory in LLM-based agents.

Maybe not. We identify and analyse errors in the popular Massive Multitask Language Understanding (MMLU) benchmark. Even though MMLU is widely adopted, our analysis demonstrates numerous ground truth errors that obscure the true capabilities of LLMs. For example, we find that 57% of the analysed questions in the Virology subset contain errors. To address this issue, we introduce a comprehensive framework for identifying dataset errors using a novel error taxonomy. Then, we create MMLU-Redux, which is a subset of 3,000 manually re-annotated questions across 30 MMLU subjects. Using MMLU-Redux, we demonstrate significant discrepancies with the model performance metrics that were originally reported. Our results strongly advocate for revising MMLU's error-ridden questions to enhance its future utility and reliability as a benchmark. Therefore, we open up MMLU-Redux for additional annotation https://huggingface.co/datasets/edinburgh-dawg/mmlu-redux.

The key-value (KV) cache is a major bottleneck in long-context inference, where memory and computation grow with sequence length. Existing KV eviction methods reduce this cost but typically degrade performance relative to full-cache inference. Our key insight is that full-cache attention is not always optimal: in long contexts, irrelevant tokens can dilute attention away from useful evidence, so selective, learnable eviction can improve generation rather than merely approximate the full cache. We introduce a global retention-based KV eviction method that learns each token's future utility under a unified memory budget. Lightweight retention gates assign utility scores to cached KV entries, and a shared final scoring projection calibrates these scores across all layers and heads. This enables a single global eviction policy in which tokens from different layers, heads, and modalities compete directly for cache capacity. We further provide theoretical analysis showing that preferentially retaining useful tokens reduces attention dilution, and we justify geometric retention as a query-agnostic proxy for future utility. Across diverse long-context language and vision-language reasoning, and multi-turn dialogue benchmarks, our method substantially reduces KV memory while matching or surpassing full-cache inference. These results suggest that learned, globally calibrated KV eviction is not only a compression technique, but also a mechanism for improving long-context reasoning.

Long-context inference is increasingly constrained by the KV cache: resident memory grows with context length, and decoding becomes limited by repeated High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) streaming rather than arithmetic. Existing methods such as eviction, windowing, quantization, and offloading reduce footprint, but often leave the critical-path bottleneck only partially addressed, especially when compressed states must still be reconstructed into dense vectors during decoding. We present Spherical KV, a long-context inference method that treats KV allocation as a rate-distortion problem grounded in attention geometry for efficient decoding. The method is built on two ideas: (i) represent directional information cheaply in the decode hot loop, and (ii) allocate retention and precision according to estimated future utility. Its first component, Angle-Domain Attention (ADA), stores keys in a spherical parameterization consisting of a scalar radius and compact angle codes, and computes attention logits directly from these codes without reconstructing dense keys. This preserves a paged, block-local, fusion-friendly decode path and directly targets HBM traffic in realistic serving settings. Its second component, Rate-Distortion Retention (RDR), jointly chooses keep/drop decisions and precision tiers per token and head under a fixed budget, producing tier-homogeneous pages with lightweight metadata and coalesced reads. Together, ADA and RDR provide a deployment-oriented mechanism for reducing KV residency while preserving decode efficiency.

Memory remains a critical bottleneck for long-horizon robotic manipulation, as standard Vision-Language-Action (VLA) policies often fail when task-relevant cues become occluded or unobservable over time. While existing memory-augmented methods utilize historical context, they either suffer from severe information bottlenecks, incur high latency via decoupled dual systems, or rely on unselective buffers that accumulate massive visual redundancies. To address these limitations, we introduce EventVLA, an end-to-end framework founded on the concept of sparse visual evidence memory that comprises two core components: foundational visual anchors to retain initial and short-term contexts, and a dynamic Keyframe Evidence Memory (KEM) module. Specifically, KEM directly predicts future keyframe probabilities from the VLA's latent embeddings to autonomously capture and store sparse, task-critical visual events. This foresight-driven mechanism empowers the policy to dynamically evaluate the future causal utility of current observations, preserving transient visual evidence before it becomes unobservable. Furthermore, we propose RoboTwin-MeM, a diagnostic benchmark specifically designed to evaluate non-Markovian manipulation tasks with interactive visual evidence. Extensive evaluations show that across 17 memory-requiring simulation tasks and 4 real-world bimanual tasks, EventVLA achieves an average success rate improvement of +40% over state-of-the-art memory-augmented VLAs.

Datasets scraped from the internet have been critical to the successes of large-scale machine learning. Yet, this very success puts the utility of future internet-derived datasets at potential risk, as model outputs begin to replace human annotations as a source of supervision. In this work, we first formalize a system where interactions with one model are recorded as history and scraped as training data in the future. We then analyze its stability over time by tracking changes to a test-time bias statistic (e.g. gender bias of model predictions). We find that the degree of bias amplification is closely linked to whether the model's outputs behave like samples from the training distribution, a behavior which we characterize and define as consistent calibration. Experiments in three conditional prediction scenarios - image classification, visual role-labeling, and language generation - demonstrate that models that exhibit a sampling-like behavior are more calibrated and thus more stable. Based on this insight, we propose an intervention to help calibrate and stabilize unstable feedback systems. Code is available at https://github.com/rtaori/data_feedback.

Conventional 2D pose estimation models are constrained by their design to specific object categories. This limits their applicability to predefined objects. To overcome these limitations, category-agnostic pose estimation (CAPE) emerged as a solution. CAPE aims to facilitate keypoint localization for diverse object categories using a unified model, which can generalize from minimal annotated support images. Recent CAPE works have produced object poses based on arbitrary keypoint definitions annotated on a user-provided support image. Our work departs from conventional CAPE methods, which require a support image, by adopting a text-based approach instead of the support image. Specifically, we use a pose-graph, where nodes represent keypoints that are described with text. This representation takes advantage of the abstraction of text descriptions and the structure imposed by the graph. Our approach effectively breaks symmetry, preserves structure, and improves occlusion handling. We validate our novel approach using the MP-100 benchmark, a comprehensive dataset spanning over 100 categories and 18,000 images. Under a 1-shot setting, our solution achieves a notable performance boost of 1.07\%, establishing a new state-of-the-art for CAPE. Additionally, we enrich the dataset by providing text description annotations, further enhancing its utility for future research.

Predicting future international events from textual information, such as news articles, has tremendous potential for applications in global policy, strategic decision-making, and geopolitics. However, existing datasets available for this task are often limited in quality, hindering the progress of related research. In this paper, we introduce WORLDREP (WORLD Relationship and Event Prediction), a novel dataset designed to address these limitations by leveraging the advanced reasoning capabilities of large-language models (LLMs). Our dataset features high-quality scoring labels generated through advanced prompt modeling and rigorously validated by domain experts in political science. We showcase the quality and utility of WORLDREP for real-world event prediction tasks, demonstrating its effectiveness through extensive experiments and analysis. Furthermore, we publicly release our dataset along with the full automation source code for data collection, labeling, and benchmarking, aiming to support and advance research in text-based event prediction.

Reasoning prefixes shape the future trajectory of LLM problem solving, yet existing process reward models usually evaluate them through local step correctness. We argue that correctness is a useful but indirect proxy for the effect we ultimately care about: whether a prefix increases the probability of successful completion. We define this effect as prefix gain, the solve-rate improvement induced by conditioning lightweight student model group on a prefix, and use it to train a Prefix Utility Model (PUM) with a simple pairwise ranking objective. PUM learns outcome-grounded prefix utility and can score both complete trajectories and partial reasoning prefixes. Across Best-of-N selection, beam search, and reinforcement learning on mathematical reasoning, PUM provides a strong prefix-level supervision signal, especially when candidate pools are large, search budgets increase, or rule-based rewards are sparse. We release all data, models, and code at https://zhiqix.github.io/pum-project-page.

Recent advancements in large language models (LLMs) often rely on generating intermediate reasoning steps to enhance accuracy. However, little work has examined how reasoning utility contributes to the final answer's correctness. Due to the stochastic nature of autoregressive generation, generating more context does not guarantee increased confidence in the answer. If we could predict, during generation, whether a reasoning step will be useful, we could stop early or prune ineffective steps, avoiding distractions in the final decision. We present an oracle study on MATH dataset, using Qwen2.5-32B and GPT-4o to generate reasoning chains, and then employing a separate model (Qwen3-8B) to quantify the utility of these chains for final accuracy. Specifically, we measure the model's uncertainty on the answer span Y at each reasoning step using conditional entropy (expected negative log-likelihood over the vocabulary) with context expanding step by step. Our results show a clear pattern: conditional entropy that decreases over steps is strongly associated with correct answers, whereas flat or increasing entropy often results in wrong answers. We also corroborate that incorrect reasoning paths tend to be longer than correct ones, suggesting that longer reasoning does not necessarily yield better outcomes. These findings serve as a foundation to inspire future work on designing efficient reasoning pipelines that detect and avoid unproductive reasoning early.

Deep learning in computer vision has achieved great success with the price of large-scale labeled training data. However, exhaustive data annotation is impracticable for each task of all domains of interest, due to high labor costs and unguaranteed labeling accuracy. Besides, the uncontrollable data collection process produces non-IID training and test data, where undesired duplication may exist. All these nuisances may hinder the verification of typical theories and exposure to new findings. To circumvent them, an alternative is to generate synthetic data via 3D rendering with domain randomization. We in this work push forward along this line by doing profound and extensive research on bare supervised learning and downstream domain adaptation. Specifically, under the well-controlled, IID data setting enabled by 3D rendering, we systematically verify the typical, important learning insights, e.g., shortcut learning, and discover the new laws of various data regimes and network architectures in generalization. We further investigate the effect of image formation factors on generalization, e.g., object scale, material texture, illumination, camera viewpoint, and background in a 3D scene. Moreover, we use the simulation-to-reality adaptation as a downstream task for comparing the transferability between synthetic and real data when used for pre-training, which demonstrates that synthetic data pre-training is also promising to improve real test results. Lastly, to promote future research, we develop a new large-scale synthetic-to-real benchmark for image classification, termed S2RDA, which provides more significant challenges for transfer from simulation to reality. The code and datasets are available at https://github.com/huitangtang/On_the_Utility_of_Synthetic_Data.

Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) is widely used for critic-free Large Language Model (LLM) post-training, but its KL regularization is usually implemented as a local loss-side token penalty. We show that this misses the policy-gradient signal induced by autoregressive KL regularization. Unlike standard KL-regularized Reinforcement Learning (RL) objectives, GRPO's group normalization induces a non-linear prompt-level utility; for binary verifier rewards, this utility is 2arcsinsqrt p. As a result, reward and KL cannot be fused before normalization without changing the implicit objective. We derive the on-policy gradient of GRPO-style objectives with token-wise f-divergence regularization. The reward term recovers the standardized GRPO advantage, while the regularizer term includes a causal future-regularization return-to-go omitted by local KL losses. For reverse KL, this yields a simple future KL correction: add a reverse cumulative sum of per-token log ratios after advantage construction. The resulting method, Future-KL Regularized Policy Optimization (FRPO), requires no critic or extra model passes. On mathematical reasoning tasks, FRPO improves pass@16 in our main large-model setting while maintaining higher entropy and lower policy drift than conventional loss-side KL baselines.

This work investigates the effectiveness of different pseudonymization techniques, ranging from rule-based substitutions to using pre-trained Large Language Models (LLMs), on a variety of datasets and models used for two widely used NLP tasks: text classification and summarization. Our work provides crucial insights into the gaps between original and anonymized data (focusing on the pseudonymization technique) and model quality and fosters future research into higher-quality anonymization techniques to better balance the trade-offs between data protection and utility preservation. We make our code, pseudonymized datasets, and downstream models publicly available

This paper examines the role of cognitive biases in the decision-making processes of large language models (LLMs), challenging the conventional goal of eliminating all biases. We show that certain cognitive biases when properly balanced, can enhance decision-making efficiency through rational deviations and heuristic shortcuts. By introducing heuristic moderation and an abstention option, which allows LLMs to withhold responses when uncertain, we reduce error rates, improve decision accuracy, and optimize decision rates. Using the Balance Rigor and Utility (BRU) dataset, developed through expert collaboration, our findings demonstrate that targeted inspection of cognitive biases aligns LLM decisions more closely with human reasoning, enhancing reliability and suggesting strategies for future improvements. This approach offers a novel way to leverage cognitive biases to improve the practical utility of LLMs across various applications.

Bangla -- ranked as the 6th most widely spoken language across the world (https://www.ethnologue.com/guides/ethnologue200), with 230 million native speakers -- is still considered as a low-resource language in the natural language processing (NLP) community. With three decades of research, Bangla NLP (BNLP) is still lagging behind mainly due to the scarcity of resources and the challenges that come with it. There is sparse work in different areas of BNLP; however, a thorough survey reporting previous work and recent advances is yet to be done. In this study, we first provide a review of Bangla NLP tasks, resources, and tools available to the research community; we benchmark datasets collected from various platforms for nine NLP tasks using current state-of-the-art algorithms (i.e., transformer-based models). We provide comparative results for the studied NLP tasks by comparing monolingual vs. multilingual models of varying sizes. We report our results using both individual and consolidated datasets and provide data splits for future research. We reviewed a total of 108 papers and conducted 175 sets of experiments. Our results show promising performance using transformer-based models while highlighting the trade-off with computational costs. We hope that such a comprehensive survey will motivate the community to build on and further advance the research on Bangla NLP.

While it is still unclear if agents with Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) could ever be built, we can already use mathematical models to investigate potential safety systems for these agents. We present an AGI safety layer that creates a special dedicated input terminal to support the iterative improvement of an AGI agent's utility function. The humans who switched on the agent can use this terminal to close any loopholes that are discovered in the utility function's encoding of agent goals and constraints, to direct the agent towards new goals, or to force the agent to switch itself off. An AGI agent may develop the emergent incentive to manipulate the above utility function improvement process, for example by deceiving, restraining, or even attacking the humans involved. The safety layer will partially, and sometimes fully, suppress this dangerous incentive. The first part of this paper generalizes earlier work on AGI emergency stop buttons. We aim to make the mathematical methods used to construct the layer more accessible, by applying them to an MDP model. We discuss two provable properties of the safety layer, and show ongoing work in mapping it to a Causal Influence Diagram (CID). In the second part, we develop full mathematical proofs, and show that the safety layer creates a type of bureaucratic blindness. We then present the design of a learning agent, a design that wraps the safety layer around either a known machine learning system, or a potential future AGI-level learning system. The resulting agent will satisfy the provable safety properties from the moment it is first switched on. Finally, we show how this agent can be mapped from its model to a real-life implementation. We review the methodological issues involved in this step, and discuss how these are typically resolved.

We introduce CheXGenBench, a rigorous and multifaceted evaluation framework for synthetic chest radiograph generation that simultaneously assesses fidelity, privacy risks, and clinical utility across state-of-the-art text-to-image generative models. Despite rapid advancements in generative AI for real-world imagery, medical domain evaluations have been hindered by methodological inconsistencies, outdated architectural comparisons, and disconnected assessment criteria that rarely address the practical clinical value of synthetic samples. CheXGenBench overcomes these limitations through standardised data partitioning and a unified evaluation protocol comprising over 20 quantitative metrics that systematically analyse generation quality, potential privacy vulnerabilities, and downstream clinical applicability across 11 leading text-to-image architectures. Our results reveal critical inefficiencies in the existing evaluation protocols, particularly in assessing generative fidelity, leading to inconsistent and uninformative comparisons. Our framework establishes a standardised benchmark for the medical AI community, enabling objective and reproducible comparisons while facilitating seamless integration of both existing and future generative models. Additionally, we release a high-quality, synthetic dataset, SynthCheX-75K, comprising 75K radiographs generated by the top-performing model (Sana 0.6B) in our benchmark to support further research in this critical domain. Through CheXGenBench, we establish a new state-of-the-art and release our framework, models, and SynthCheX-75K dataset at https://raman1121.github.io/CheXGenBench/

In this study, we investigated whether transfer learning from macaque monkeys could improve human pose estimation. Current state-of-the-art pose estimation techniques, often employing deep neural networks, can match human annotation in non-clinical datasets. However, they underperform in novel situations, limiting their generalisability to clinical populations with pathological movement patterns. Clinical datasets are not widely available for AI training due to ethical challenges and a lack of data collection. We observe that data from other species may be able to bridge this gap by exposing the network to a broader range of motion cues. We found that utilising data from other species and undertaking transfer learning improved human pose estimation in terms of precision and recall compared to the benchmark, which was trained on humans only. Compared to the benchmark, fewer human training examples were needed for the transfer learning approach (1,000 vs 19,185). These results suggest that macaque pose estimation can improve human pose estimation in clinical situations. Future work should further explore the utility of pose estimation trained with monkey data in clinical populations.

India's linguistic landscape is one of the most diverse in the world, comprising over 120 major languages and approximately 1,600 additional languages, with 22 officially recognized as scheduled languages in the Indian Constitution. Despite recent progress in multilingual neural machine translation (NMT), high-quality parallel corpora for Indian languages remain scarce, especially across varied domains. In this paper, we introduce a large-scale, high-quality annotated parallel corpus covering 11 of these languages : English, Telugu, Hindi, Punjabi, Odia, Kashmiri, Sindhi, Dogri, Kannada, Urdu, and Gujarati comprising a total of 772,000 bi-text sentence pairs. The dataset is carefully curated and systematically categorized into three key domains: Government, Health, and General, to enable domain-aware machine translation research and facilitate effective domain adaptation. To demonstrate the utility of CorIL and establish strong benchmarks for future research, we fine-tune and evaluate several state-of-the-art NMT models, including IndicTrans2, NLLB, and BhashaVerse. Our analysis reveals important performance trends and highlights the corpus's value in probing model capabilities. For instance, the results show distinct performance patterns based on language script, with massively multilingual models showing an advantage on Perso-Arabic scripts (Urdu, Sindhi) while other models excel on Indic scripts. This paper provides a detailed domain-wise performance analysis, offering insights into domain sensitivity and cross-script transfer learning. By publicly releasing CorIL, we aim to significantly improve the availability of high-quality training data for Indian languages and provide a valuable resource for the machine translation research community.

Hospitals struggle to predict critical outcomes. Traditional early warning systems, like NEWS and MEWS, rely on static variables and fixed thresholds, limiting their adaptability, accuracy, and personalization. We previously developed the Enhanced Transformer for Health Outcome Simulation (ETHOS), an AI model that tokenizes patient health timelines (PHTs) from EHRs and uses transformer-based architectures to predict future PHTs. ETHOS is a versatile framework for developing a wide range of applications. In this work, we develop the Adaptive Risk Estimation System (ARES) that leverages ETHOS to compute dynamic, personalized risk probabilities for clinician-defined critical events. ARES also features a personalized explainability module that highlights key clinical factors influencing risk estimates. We evaluated ARES using the MIMIC-IV v2.2 dataset together with its Emergency Department (ED) extension and benchmarked performance against both classical early warning systems and contemporary machine learning models. The entire dataset was tokenized resulting in 285,622 PHTs, comprising over 360 million tokens. ETHOS outperformed benchmark models in predicting hospital admissions, ICU admissions, and prolonged stays, achieving superior AUC scores. Its risk estimates were robust across demographic subgroups, with calibration curves confirming model reliability. The explainability module provided valuable insights into patient-specific risk factors. ARES, powered by ETHOS, advances predictive healthcare AI by delivering dynamic, real-time, personalized risk estimation with patient-specific explainability. Although our results are promising, the clinical impact remains uncertain. Demonstrating ARES's true utility in real-world settings will be the focus of our future work. We release the source code to facilitate future research.

Evaluating Language Models (LMs) in specialized, high-stakes domains such as finance remains a significant challenge due to the scarcity of open, high-quality, and domain-specific datasets. Existing general-purpose benchmarks provide broad coverage but lack the depth and domain fidelity needed to assess LMs' capabilities for real-world financial reasoning, which requires both conceptual understanding and quantitative rigor. To address this gap, we introduce FinForge, a scalable, semi-synthetic pipeline for constructing finance-specific evaluation benchmarks through a hybrid of expert-guided data curation and controlled LM-based synthesis. FinForge combines manual and programmatic corpus construction from authoritative financial sources with structured question generation and validation using Gemini 2.5 Flash. To demonstrate the pipeline's efficacy, we produce FinForge-5k, a snapshot benchmark comprising over 5,000 human-validated question-answer pairs across 11 finance subdomains, derived from a curated corpus of 100,000 verified documents totaling 143M tokens. Evaluation of state-of-the-art open-source and closed-source models on FinForge-5k reveals significant differences in financial reasoning, with leading models achieving accuracy levels near 80%. These findings underscore the framework's utility for diagnosing current model limitations and guiding future improvements in financial domain competence. All code and data are available at https://github.com/gtfintechlab/FinForge.

Large Language Models (LLMs) do not differentially represent numbers, which are pervasive in text. In contrast, neuroscience research has identified distinct neural representations for numbers and words. In this work, we investigate how well popular LLMs capture the magnitudes of numbers (e.g., that 4 < 5) from a behavioral lens. Prior research on the representational capabilities of LLMs evaluates whether they show human-level performance, for instance, high overall accuracy on standard benchmarks. Here, we ask a different question, one inspired by cognitive science: How closely do the number representations of LLMscorrespond to those of human language users, who typically demonstrate the distance, size, and ratio effects? We depend on a linking hypothesis to map the similarities among the model embeddings of number words and digits to human response times. The results reveal surprisingly human-like representations across language models of different architectures, despite the absence of the neural circuitry that directly supports these representations in the human brain. This research shows the utility of understanding LLMs using behavioral benchmarks and points the way to future work on the number representations of LLMs and their cognitive plausibility.

Automating medical report generation from histopathology images is a critical challenge requiring effective visual representations and domain-specific knowledge. Inspired by the common practices of human experts, we propose an in-context learning framework called PathGenIC that integrates context derived from the training set with a multimodal in-context learning (ICL) mechanism. Our method dynamically retrieves semantically similar whole slide image (WSI)-report pairs and incorporates adaptive feedback to enhance contextual relevance and generation quality. Evaluated on the HistGen benchmark, the framework achieves state-of-the-art results, with significant improvements across BLEU, METEOR, and ROUGE-L metrics, and demonstrates robustness across diverse report lengths and disease categories. By maximizing training data utility and bridging vision and language with ICL, our work offers a solution for AI-driven histopathology reporting, setting a strong foundation for future advancements in multimodal clinical applications.

Social reasoning abilities are crucial for AI systems to effectively interpret and respond to multimodal human communication and interaction within social contexts. We introduce SOCIAL GENOME, the first benchmark for fine-grained, grounded social reasoning abilities of multimodal models. SOCIAL GENOME contains 272 videos of interactions and 1,486 human-annotated reasoning traces related to inferences about these interactions. These traces contain 5,777 reasoning steps that reference evidence from visual cues, verbal cues, vocal cues, and external knowledge (contextual knowledge external to videos). SOCIAL GENOME is also the first modeling challenge to study external knowledge in social reasoning. SOCIAL GENOME computes metrics to holistically evaluate semantic and structural qualities of model-generated social reasoning traces. We demonstrate the utility of SOCIAL GENOME through experiments with state-of-the-art models, identifying performance gaps and opportunities for future research to improve the grounded social reasoning abilities of multimodal models.

Social intelligence, the ability to navigate complex interpersonal interactions, presents a fundamental challenge for language agents. Training such agents via reinforcement learning requires solving the credit assignment problem: determining how individual utterances contribute to multi-turn dialogue outcomes. Existing approaches directly employ language models to distribute episode-level rewards, yielding attributions that are retrospective and lack theoretical grounding. We propose SAVOIR (ShApley Value fOr SocIal RL), a novel principled framework grounded in cooperative game theory. Our approach combines two complementary principles: expected utility shifts evaluation from retrospective attribution to prospective valuation, capturing an utterance's strategic potential for enabling favorable future trajectories; Shapley values ensure fair credit distribution with axiomatic guarantees of efficiency, symmetry, and marginality. Experiments on the SOTOPIA benchmark demonstrate that SAVOIR achieves new state-of-the-art performance across all evaluation settings, with our 7B model matching or exceeding proprietary models including GPT-4o and Claude-3.5-Sonnet. Notably, even large reasoning models consistently underperform, suggesting social intelligence requires qualitatively different capabilities than analytical reasoning.

Complementary-label learning (CLL) is a weakly supervised learning paradigm for multiclass classification, where only complementary labels -- indicating classes an instance does not belong to -- are provided to the learning algorithm. Despite CLL's increasing popularity, previous studies highlight two main challenges: (1) inconsistent results arising from varied assumptions on complementary label generation, and (2) high barriers to entry due to the lack of a standardized evaluation platform across datasets and algorithms. To address these challenges, we introduce libcll, an extensible Python toolkit for CLL research. libcll provides a universal interface that supports a wide range of generation assumptions, both synthetic and real-world datasets, and key CLL algorithms. The toolkit is designed to mitigate inconsistencies and streamline the research process, with easy installation, comprehensive usage guides, and quickstart tutorials that facilitate efficient adoption and implementation of CLL techniques. Extensive ablation studies conducted with libcll demonstrate its utility in generating valuable insights to advance future CLL research.

Generative Foundation Models (GenFMs) have emerged as transformative tools. However, their widespread adoption raises critical concerns regarding trustworthiness across dimensions. This paper presents a comprehensive framework to address these challenges through three key contributions. First, we systematically review global AI governance laws and policies from governments and regulatory bodies, as well as industry practices and standards. Based on this analysis, we propose a set of guiding principles for GenFMs, developed through extensive multidisciplinary collaboration that integrates technical, ethical, legal, and societal perspectives. Second, we introduce TrustGen, the first dynamic benchmarking platform designed to evaluate trustworthiness across multiple dimensions and model types, including text-to-image, large language, and vision-language models. TrustGen leverages modular components--metadata curation, test case generation, and contextual variation--to enable adaptive and iterative assessments, overcoming the limitations of static evaluation methods. Using TrustGen, we reveal significant progress in trustworthiness while identifying persistent challenges. Finally, we provide an in-depth discussion of the challenges and future directions for trustworthy GenFMs, which reveals the complex, evolving nature of trustworthiness, highlighting the nuanced trade-offs between utility and trustworthiness, and consideration for various downstream applications, identifying persistent challenges and providing a strategic roadmap for future research. This work establishes a holistic framework for advancing trustworthiness in GenAI, paving the way for safer and more responsible integration of GenFMs into critical applications. To facilitate advancement in the community, we release the toolkit for dynamic evaluation.

Chest X-ray imaging (CXR) is an important diagnostic tool used in hospitals to assess patient conditions and monitor changes over time. Generative models, specifically diffusion-based models, have shown promise in generating realistic synthetic X-rays. However, these models mainly focus on conditional generation using single-time-point data, i.e., typically CXRs taken at a specific time with their corresponding reports, limiting their clinical utility, particularly for capturing temporal changes. To address this limitation, we propose a novel framework, EHRXDiff, which predicts future CXR images by integrating previous CXRs with subsequent medical events, e.g., prescriptions, lab measures, etc. Our framework dynamically tracks and predicts disease progression based on a latent diffusion model, conditioned on the previous CXR image and a history of medical events. We comprehensively evaluate the performance of our framework across three key aspects, including clinical consistency, demographic consistency, and visual realism. We demonstrate that our framework generates high-quality, realistic future images that capture potential temporal changes, suggesting its potential for further development as a clinical simulation tool. This could offer valuable insights for patient monitoring and treatment planning in the medical field.

As LLMs become capable of complex tasks, there is growing potential for personalized interactions tailored to the subtle and idiosyncratic preferences of the user. We present a public benchmark, PersonalLLM, focusing on adapting LLMs to provide maximal benefits for a particular user. Departing from existing alignment benchmarks that implicitly assume uniform preferences, we curate open-ended prompts paired with many high-quality answers over which users would be expected to display heterogeneous latent preferences. Instead of persona-prompting LLMs based on high-level attributes (e.g., user's race or response length), which yields homogeneous preferences relative to humans, we develop a method that can simulate a large user base with diverse preferences from a set of pre-trained reward models. Our dataset and generated personalities offer an innovative testbed for developing personalization algorithms that grapple with continual data sparsity--few relevant feedback from the particular user--by leveraging historical data from other (similar) users. We explore basic in-context learning and meta-learning baselines to illustrate the utility of PersonalLLM and highlight the need for future methodological development. Our dataset is available at https://huggingface.co/datasets/namkoong-lab/PersonalLLM

This paper introduces Indiana Jones, an innovative approach to jailbreaking Large Language Models (LLMs) by leveraging inter-model dialogues and keyword-driven prompts. Through orchestrating interactions among three specialised LLMs, the method achieves near-perfect success rates in bypassing content safeguards in both white-box and black-box LLMs. The research exposes systemic vulnerabilities within contemporary models, particularly their susceptibility to producing harmful or unethical outputs when guided by ostensibly innocuous prompts framed in historical or contextual contexts. Experimental evaluations highlight the efficacy and adaptability of Indiana Jones, demonstrating its superiority over existing jailbreak methods. These findings emphasise the urgent need for enhanced ethical safeguards and robust security measures in the development of LLMs. Moreover, this work provides a critical foundation for future studies aimed at fortifying LLMs against adversarial exploitation while preserving their utility and flexibility.

Face Image Quality Assessment (FIQA) aims to predict the utility of a face image for face recognition (FR) systems. State-of-the-art FIQA methods mainly rely on convolutional neural networks (CNNs), leaving the potential of Vision Transformer (ViT) architectures underexplored. This work proposes ViT-FIQA, a novel approach that extends standard ViT backbones, originally optimized for FR, through a learnable quality token designed to predict a scalar utility score for any given face image. The learnable quality token is concatenated with the standard image patch tokens, and the whole sequence is processed via global self-attention by the ViT encoders to aggregate contextual information across all patches. At the output of the backbone, ViT-FIQA branches into two heads: (1) the patch tokens are passed through a fully connected layer to learn discriminative face representations via a margin-penalty softmax loss, and (2) the quality token is fed into a regression head to learn to predict the face sample's utility. Extensive experiments on challenging benchmarks and several FR models, including both CNN- and ViT-based architectures, demonstrate that ViT-FIQA consistently achieves top-tier performance. These results underscore the effectiveness of transformer-based architectures in modeling face image utility and highlight the potential of ViTs as a scalable foundation for future FIQA research https://cutt.ly/irHlzXUC.

This study investigates the machine unlearning techniques within the context of large language models (LLMs), referred to as LLM unlearning. LLM unlearning offers a principled approach to removing the influence of undesirable data (e.g., sensitive or illegal information) from LLMs, while preserving their overall utility without requiring full retraining. Despite growing research interest, there is no comprehensive survey that systematically organizes existing work and distills key insights; here, we aim to bridge this gap. We begin by introducing the definition and the paradigms of LLM unlearning, followed by a comprehensive taxonomy of existing unlearning studies. Next, we categorize current unlearning approaches, summarizing their strengths and limitations. Additionally, we review evaluation metrics and benchmarks, providing a structured overview of current assessment methodologies. Finally, we outline promising directions for future research, highlighting key challenges and opportunities in the field.

In this paper, we introduce SUTRA, multilingual Large Language Model architecture capable of understanding, reasoning, and generating text in over 50 languages. SUTRA's design uniquely decouples core conceptual understanding from language-specific processing, which facilitates scalable and efficient multilingual alignment and learning. Employing a Mixture of Experts framework both in language and concept processing, SUTRA demonstrates both computational efficiency and responsiveness. Through extensive evaluations, SUTRA is demonstrated to surpass existing models like GPT-3.5, Llama2 by 20-30% on leading Massive Multitask Language Understanding (MMLU) benchmarks for multilingual tasks. SUTRA models are also online LLMs that can use knowledge from the internet to provide hallucination-free, factual and up-to-date responses while retaining their multilingual capabilities. Furthermore, we explore the broader implications of its architecture for the future of multilingual AI, highlighting its potential to democratize access to AI technology globally and to improve the equity and utility of AI in regions with predominantly non-English languages. Our findings suggest that SUTRA not only fills pivotal gaps in multilingual model capabilities but also establishes a new benchmark for operational efficiency and scalability in AI applications.

The research of artificial intelligence is undergoing a paradigm shift from prioritizing model innovations over benchmark scores towards emphasizing problem definition and rigorous real-world evaluation. As the field enters the "second half," the central challenge becomes real utility in long-horizon, dynamic, and user-dependent environments, where agents face context explosion and must continuously accumulate, manage, and selectively reuse large volumes of information across extended interactions. Memory, with hundreds of papers released this year, therefore emerges as the critical solution to fill the utility gap. In this survey, we provide a unified view of foundation agent memory along three dimensions: memory substrate (internal and external), cognitive mechanism (episodic, semantic, sensory, working, and procedural), and memory subject (agent- and user-centric). We then analyze how memory is instantiated and operated under different agent topologies and highlight learning policies over memory operations. Finally, we review evaluation benchmarks and metrics for assessing memory utility, and outline various open challenges and future directions.

As Large Language Models (LLMs) become increasingly integrated into real-world applications, ensuring their outputs align with human values and safety standards has become critical. The field has developed diverse alignment approaches including traditional fine-tuning methods (RLHF, instruction tuning), post-hoc correction systems, and inference-time interventions, each with distinct advantages and limitations. However, the lack of unified evaluation frameworks makes it difficult to systematically compare these paradigms and guide deployment decisions. This paper introduces a multi-dimensional evaluation of alignment techniques for LLMs, a comprehensive evaluation framework that provides a systematic comparison across all major alignment paradigms. Our framework assesses methods along four key dimensions: alignment detection, alignment quality, computational efficiency, and robustness. Through experiments across diverse base models and alignment strategies, we demonstrate the utility of our framework in identifying strengths and limitations of current state-of-the-art models, providing valuable insights for future research directions.

Southeast Asia (SEA) is a region rich in linguistic diversity and cultural variety, with over 1,300 indigenous languages and a population of 671 million people. However, prevailing AI models suffer from a significant lack of representation of texts, images, and audio datasets from SEA, compromising the quality of AI models for SEA languages. Evaluating models for SEA languages is challenging due to the scarcity of high-quality datasets, compounded by the dominance of English training data, raising concerns about potential cultural misrepresentation. To address these challenges, we introduce SEACrowd, a collaborative initiative that consolidates a comprehensive resource hub that fills the resource gap by providing standardized corpora in nearly 1,000 SEA languages across three modalities. Through our SEACrowd benchmarks, we assess the quality of AI models on 36 indigenous languages across 13 tasks, offering valuable insights into the current AI landscape in SEA. Furthermore, we propose strategies to facilitate greater AI advancements, maximizing potential utility and resource equity for the future of AI in SEA.

A broad range of NLP tasks involve selecting relevant text spans from given source texts. Despite this shared objective, such content selection tasks have traditionally been studied in isolation, each with its own modeling approaches, datasets, and evaluation metrics. In this work, we propose instruction-guided content selection (IGCS) as a beneficial unified framework for such settings, where the task definition and any instance-specific request are encapsulated as instructions to a language model. To promote this framework, we introduce , the first unified benchmark covering diverse content selection tasks. Further, we create a large generic synthetic dataset that can be leveraged for diverse content selection tasks, and show that transfer learning with these datasets often boosts performance, whether dedicated training for the targeted task is available or not. Finally, we address generic inference time issues that arise in LLM-based modeling of content selection, assess a generic evaluation metric, and overall propose the utility of our resources and methods for future content selection models. Models and datasets available at https://github.com/shmuelamar/igcs.

Large language models (LLMs) are often trained on extensive, temporally indiscriminate text corpora, reflecting the lack of datasets with temporal metadata. This approach is not aligned with the evolving nature of language. Conventional methods for creating temporally adapted language models often depend on further pre-training static models on time-specific data. This paper presents a new approach: a series of point-in-time LLMs called Time Machine GPT (TiMaGPT), specifically designed to be nonprognosticative. This ensures they remain uninformed about future factual information and linguistic changes. This strategy is beneficial for understanding language evolution and is of critical importance when applying models in dynamic contexts, such as time-series forecasting, where foresight of future information can prove problematic. We provide access to both the models and training datasets.

While the deployment of large language models (LLMs) in high-value industries continues to expand, the systematic assessment of their safety against jailbreak and prompt-based attacks remains insufficient. Existing safety evaluation benchmarks and frameworks are often limited by an imbalanced integration of core components (attack, defense, and evaluation methods) and an isolation between flexible evaluation frameworks and standardized benchmarking capabilities. These limitations hinder reliable cross-study comparisons and create unnecessary overhead for comprehensive risk assessment. To address these gaps, we present TeleAI-Safety, a modular and reproducible framework coupled with a systematic benchmark for rigorous LLM safety evaluation. Our framework integrates a broad collection of 19 attack methods (including one self-developed method), 29 defense methods, and 19 evaluation methods (including one self-developed method). With a curated attack corpus of 342 samples spanning 12 distinct risk categories, the TeleAI-Safety benchmark conducts extensive evaluations across 14 target models. The results reveal systematic vulnerabilities and model-specific failure cases, highlighting critical trade-offs between safety and utility, and identifying potential defense patterns for future optimization. In practical scenarios, TeleAI-Safety can be flexibly adjusted with customized attack, defense, and evaluation combinations to meet specific demands. We release our complete code and evaluation results to facilitate reproducible research and establish unified safety baselines.

Emotion recognition from social media is critical for understanding public sentiment, but accessing training data has become prohibitively expensive due to escalating API costs and platform restrictions. We introduce an interpretability-guided framework where Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) provide principled guidance for LLM-based synthetic data generation. With sufficient seed data, SHAP-guided approach matches real data performance, significantly outperforms naïve generation, and substantially improves classification for underrepresented emotion classes. However, our linguistic analysis reveals that synthetic text exhibits reduced vocabulary richness and fewer personal or temporally complex expressions than authentic posts. This work provides both a practical framework for responsible synthetic data generation and a critical perspective on its limitations, underscoring that the future of trustworthy AI depends on navigating the trade-offs between synthetic utility and real-world authenticity.

Large Language Models (LLMs) increasingly leverage Federated Learning (FL) to utilize private, task-specific datasets for fine-tuning while preserving data privacy. However, while federated LLM frameworks effectively enable collaborative training without raw data sharing, they critically lack built-in mechanisms for regulatory compliance like GDPR's right to be forgotten. Integrating private data heightens concerns over data quality and long-term governance, yet existing distributed training frameworks offer no principled way to selectively remove specific client contributions post-training. Due to distributed data silos, stringent privacy constraints, and the intricacies of interdependent model aggregation, federated LLM unlearning is significantly more complex than centralized LLM unlearning. To address this gap, we introduce Oblivionis, a lightweight learning and unlearning framework that enables clients to selectively remove specific private data during federated LLM training, enhancing trustworthiness and regulatory compliance. By unifying FL and unlearning as a dual optimization objective, we incorporate 6 FL and 5 unlearning algorithms for comprehensive evaluation and comparative analysis, establishing a robust pipeline for federated LLM unlearning. Extensive experiments demonstrate that Oblivionis outperforms local training, achieving a robust balance between forgetting efficacy and model utility, with cross-algorithm comparisons providing clear directions for future LLM development.

Time series reasoning treats time as a first-class axis and incorporates intermediate evidence directly into the answer. This survey defines the problem and organizes the literature by reasoning topology with three families: direct reasoning in one step, linear chain reasoning with explicit intermediates, and branch-structured reasoning that explores, revises, and aggregates. The topology is crossed with the main objectives of the field, including traditional time series analysis, explanation and understanding, causal inference and decision making, and time series generation, while a compact tag set spans these axes and captures decomposition and verification, ensembling, tool use, knowledge access, multimodality, agent loops, and LLM alignment regimes. Methods and systems are reviewed across domains, showing what each topology enables and where it breaks down in faithfulness or robustness, along with curated datasets, benchmarks, and resources that support study and deployment (https://github.com/blacksnail789521/Time-Series-Reasoning-Survey). Evaluation practices that keep evidence visible and temporally aligned are highlighted, and guidance is distilled on matching topology to uncertainty, grounding with observable artifacts, planning for shift and streaming, and treating cost and latency as design budgets. We emphasize that reasoning structures must balance capacity for grounding and self-correction against computational cost and reproducibility, while future progress will likely depend on benchmarks that tie reasoning quality to utility and on closed-loop testbeds that trade off cost and risk under shift-aware, streaming, and long-horizon settings. Taken together, these directions mark a shift from narrow accuracy toward reliability at scale, enabling systems that not only analyze but also understand, explain, and act on dynamic worlds with traceable evidence and credible outcomes.

Generative AI (GenAI), which aims to synthesize realistic and diverse data samples from latent variables or other data modalities, has achieved remarkable results in various domains, such as natural language, images, audio, and graphs. However, they also pose challenges and risks to data privacy, security, and ethics. Machine unlearning is the process of removing or weakening the influence of specific data samples or features from a trained model, without affecting its performance on other data or tasks. While machine unlearning has shown significant efficacy in traditional machine learning tasks, it is still unclear if it could help GenAI become safer and aligned with human desire. To this end, this position paper provides an in-depth discussion of the machine unlearning approaches for GenAI. Firstly, we formulate the problem of machine unlearning tasks on GenAI and introduce the background. Subsequently, we systematically examine the limitations of machine unlearning on GenAI models by focusing on the two representative branches: LLMs and image generative (diffusion) models. Finally, we provide our prospects mainly from three aspects: benchmark, evaluation metrics, and utility-unlearning trade-off, and conscientiously advocate for the future development of this field.

Large language models (LLMs) have significantly advanced the field of natural language processing (NLP), providing a highly useful, task-agnostic foundation for a wide range of applications. However, directly applying LLMs to solve sophisticated problems in specific domains meets many hurdles, caused by the heterogeneity of domain data, the sophistication of domain knowledge, the uniqueness of domain objectives, and the diversity of the constraints (e.g., various social norms, cultural conformity, religious beliefs, and ethical standards in the domain applications). Domain specification techniques are key to make large language models disruptive in many applications. Specifically, to solve these hurdles, there has been a notable increase in research and practices conducted in recent years on the domain specialization of LLMs. This emerging field of study, with its substantial potential for impact, necessitates a comprehensive and systematic review to better summarize and guide ongoing work in this area. In this article, we present a comprehensive survey on domain specification techniques for large language models, an emerging direction critical for large language model applications. First, we propose a systematic taxonomy that categorizes the LLM domain-specialization techniques based on the accessibility to LLMs and summarizes the framework for all the subcategories as well as their relations and differences to each other. Second, we present an extensive taxonomy of critical application domains that can benefit dramatically from specialized LLMs, discussing their practical significance and open challenges. Last, we offer our insights into the current research status and future trends in this area.

Many individuals are concerned about the governance of machine learning systems and the prevention of algorithmic harms. The EU's recent General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) has been seen as a core tool for achieving better governance of this area. While the GDPR does apply to the use of models in some limited situations, most of its provisions relate to the governance of personal data, while models have traditionally been seen as intellectual property. We present recent work from the information security literature around `model inversion' and `membership inference' attacks, which indicate that the process of turning training data into machine learned systems is not one-way, and demonstrate how this could lead some models to be legally classified as personal data. Taking this as a probing experiment, we explore the different rights and obligations this would trigger and their utility, and posit future directions for algorithmic governance and regulation.

Clinical decision-making in radiology increasingly benefits from artificial intelligence (AI), particularly through large language models (LLMs). However, traditional retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) systems for radiology question answering (QA) typically rely on single-step retrieval, limiting their ability to handle complex clinical reasoning tasks. Here we propose radiology Retrieval and Reasoning (RaR), a multi-step retrieval and reasoning framework designed to improve diagnostic accuracy, factual consistency, and clinical reliability of LLMs in radiology question answering. We evaluated 25 LLMs spanning diverse architectures, parameter scales (0.5B to >670B), and training paradigms (general-purpose, reasoning-optimized, clinically fine-tuned), using 104 expert-curated radiology questions from previously established RSNA-RadioQA and ExtendedQA datasets. To assess generalizability, we additionally tested on an unseen internal dataset of 65 real-world radiology board examination questions. RaR significantly improved mean diagnostic accuracy over zero-shot prompting and conventional online RAG. The greatest gains occurred in small-scale models, while very large models (>200B parameters) demonstrated minimal changes (<2% improvement). Additionally, RaR retrieval reduced hallucinations (mean 9.4%) and retrieved clinically relevant context in 46% of cases, substantially aiding factual grounding. Even clinically fine-tuned models showed gains from RaR (e.g., MedGemma-27B), indicating that retrieval remains beneficial despite embedded domain knowledge. These results highlight the potential of RaR to enhance factuality and diagnostic accuracy in radiology QA, warranting future studies to validate their clinical utility. All datasets, code, and the full RaR framework are publicly available to support open research and clinical translation.

Thinking about the future is one of the important activities that people do in daily life. Futurists also pay a lot of effort into figuring out possible scenarios for the future. We argue that the exploration of this direction is still in an early stage in the NLP research. To this end, we propose three argument generation tasks in the financial application scenario. Our experimental results show these tasks are still big challenges for representative generation models. Based on our empirical results, we further point out several unresolved issues and challenges in this research direction.

Future prediction is a complex task for LLM agents, requiring a high level of analytical thinking, information gathering, contextual understanding, and decision-making under uncertainty. Agents must not only gather and interpret vast amounts of dynamic information but also integrate diverse data sources, weigh uncertainties, and adapt predictions based on emerging trends, just as human experts do in fields like politics, economics, and finance. Despite its importance, no large-scale benchmark exists for evaluating agents on future prediction, largely due to challenges in handling real-time updates and retrieving timely, accurate answers. To address this, we introduce FutureX, a dynamic and live evaluation benchmark specifically designed for LLM agents performing future prediction tasks. FutureX is the largest and most diverse live benchmark for future prediction, supporting real-time daily updates and eliminating data contamination through an automated pipeline for question gathering and answer collection. We evaluate 25 LLM/agent models, including those with reasoning, search capabilities, and integration of external tools such as the open-source Deep Research Agent and closed-source Deep Research models. This comprehensive evaluation assesses agents' adaptive reasoning and performance in dynamic environments. Additionally, we provide in-depth analyses of agents' failure modes and performance pitfalls in future-oriented tasks, including the vulnerability to fake web pages and the temporal validity. Our goal is to establish a dynamic, contamination-free evaluation standard that drives the development of LLM agents capable of performing at the level of professional human analysts in complex reasoning and predictive thinking.

One of the predominant methods for training world models is autoregressive prediction in the output space of the next element of a sequence. In Natural Language Processing (NLP), this takes the form of Large Language Models (LLMs) predicting the next token; in Computer Vision (CV), this takes the form of autoregressive models predicting the next frame/token/pixel. However, this approach differs from human cognition in several respects. First, human predictions about the future actively influence internal cognitive processes. Second, humans naturally evaluate the plausibility of predictions regarding future states. Based on this capability, and third, by assessing when predictions are sufficient, humans allocate a dynamic amount of time to make a prediction. This adaptive process is analogous to System 2 thinking in psychology. All these capabilities are fundamental to the success of humans at high-level reasoning and planning. Therefore, to address the limitations of traditional autoregressive models lacking these human-like capabilities, we introduce Energy-Based World Models (EBWM). EBWM involves training an Energy-Based Model (EBM) to predict the compatibility of a given context and a predicted future state. In doing so, EBWM enables models to achieve all three facets of human cognition described. Moreover, we developed a variant of the traditional autoregressive transformer tailored for Energy-Based models, termed the Energy-Based Transformer (EBT). Our results demonstrate that EBWM scales better with data and GPU Hours than traditional autoregressive transformers in CV, and that EBWM offers promising early scaling in NLP. Consequently, this approach offers an exciting path toward training future models capable of System 2 thinking and intelligently searching across state spaces.

Recent research in offline reinforcement learning (RL) has demonstrated that return-conditioned supervised learning is a powerful paradigm for decision-making problems. While promising, return conditioning is limited to training data labeled with rewards and therefore faces challenges in learning from unsupervised data. In this work, we aim to utilize generalized future conditioning to enable efficient unsupervised pretraining from reward-free and sub-optimal offline data. We propose Pretrained Decision Transformer (PDT), a conceptually simple approach for unsupervised RL pretraining. PDT leverages future trajectory information as a privileged context to predict actions during training. The ability to make decisions based on both present and future factors enhances PDT's capability for generalization. Besides, this feature can be easily incorporated into a return-conditioned framework for online finetuning, by assigning return values to possible futures and sampling future embeddings based on their respective values. Empirically, PDT outperforms or performs on par with its supervised pretraining counterpart, especially when dealing with sub-optimal data. Further analysis reveals that PDT can extract diverse behaviors from offline data and controllably sample high-return behaviors by online finetuning. Code is available at here.

Local Energy Communities are emerging as crucial players in the landscape of sustainable development. A significant challenge for these communities is achieving self-sufficiency through effective management of the balance between energy production and consumption. To meet this challenge, it is essential to develop and implement forecasting models that deliver accurate predictions, which can then be utilized by optimization and planning algorithms. However, the application of forecasting solutions is often hindered by privacy constrains and regulations as the users participating in the Local Energy Community can be (rightfully) reluctant sharing their consumption patterns with others. In this context, the use of Federated Learning (FL) can be a viable solution as it allows to create a forecasting model without the need to share privacy sensitive information among the users. In this study, we demonstrate how FL and long short-term memory (LSTM) networks can be employed to achieve this objective, highlighting the trade-off between data sharing and forecasting accuracy.

Next POI recommendation intends to forecast users' immediate future movements given their current status and historical information, yielding great values for both users and service providers. However, this problem is perceptibly complex because various data trends need to be considered together. This includes the spatial locations, temporal contexts, user's preferences, etc. Most existing studies view the next POI recommendation as a sequence prediction problem while omitting the collaborative signals from other users. Instead, we propose a user-agnostic global trajectory flow map and a novel Graph Enhanced Transformer model (GETNext) to better exploit the extensive collaborative signals for a more accurate next POI prediction, and alleviate the cold start problem in the meantime. GETNext incorporates the global transition patterns, user's general preference, spatio-temporal context, and time-aware category embeddings together into a transformer model to make the prediction of user's future moves. With this design, our model outperforms the state-of-the-art methods with a large margin and also sheds light on the cold start challenges within the spatio-temporal involved recommendation problems.

In most real-world applications of artificial intelligence, the distributions of the data and the goals of the learners tend to change over time. The Probably Approximately Correct (PAC) learning framework, which underpins most machine learning algorithms, fails to account for dynamic data distributions and evolving objectives, often resulting in suboptimal performance. Prospective learning is a recently introduced mathematical framework that overcomes some of these limitations. We build on this framework to present preliminary results that improve the algorithm and numerical results, and extend prospective learning to sequential decision-making scenarios, specifically foraging. Code is available at: https://github.com/neurodata/prolearn2.

We introduce EnerVerse, a comprehensive framework for embodied future space generation specifically designed for robotic manipulation tasks. EnerVerse seamlessly integrates convolutional and bidirectional attention mechanisms for inner-chunk space modeling, ensuring low-level consistency and continuity. Recognizing the inherent redundancy in video data, we propose a sparse memory context combined with a chunkwise unidirectional generative paradigm to enable the generation of infinitely long sequences. To further augment robotic capabilities, we introduce the Free Anchor View (FAV) space, which provides flexible perspectives to enhance observation and analysis. The FAV space mitigates motion modeling ambiguity, removes physical constraints in confined environments, and significantly improves the robot's generalization and adaptability across various tasks and settings. To address the prohibitive costs and labor intensity of acquiring multi-camera observations, we present a data engine pipeline that integrates a generative model with 4D Gaussian Splatting (4DGS). This pipeline leverages the generative model's robust generalization capabilities and the spatial constraints provided by 4DGS, enabling an iterative enhancement of data quality and diversity, thus creating a data flywheel effect that effectively narrows the sim-to-real gap. Finally, our experiments demonstrate that the embodied future space generation prior substantially enhances policy predictive capabilities, resulting in improved overall performance, particularly in long-range robotic manipulation tasks.

High-stakes decision making involves reasoning under uncertainty about the future. In this work, we train language models to make predictions on open-ended forecasting questions. To scale up training data, we synthesize novel forecasting questions from global events reported in daily news, using a fully automated, careful curation recipe. We train the Qwen3 thinking models on our dataset, OpenForesight. To prevent leakage of future information during training and evaluation, we use an offline news corpus, both for data generation and retrieval in our forecasting system. Guided by a small validation set, we show the benefits of retrieval, and an improved reward function for reinforcement learning (RL). Once we obtain our final forecasting system, we perform held-out testing between May to August 2025. Our specialized model, OpenForecaster 8B, matches much larger proprietary models, with our training improving the accuracy, calibration, and consistency of predictions. We find calibration improvements from forecasting training generalize across popular benchmarks. We open-source all our models, code, and data to make research on language model forecasting broadly accessible.

Predicting the future is of great interest across many aspects of human activity. Businesses are interested in future trends, traders are interested in future stock prices, and companies are highly interested in future technological breakthroughs. While there are many automated systems for predicting future numerical data, such as weather, stock prices, and demand for products, there is relatively little work in automatically predicting textual data. Humans are interested in textual data predictions because it is a natural format for our consumption, and experts routinely make predictions in a textual format (Christensen et al., 2004; Tetlock & Gardner, 2015; Frick, 2015). However, there has been relatively little formalization of this general problem in the machine learning or natural language processing communities. To address this gap, we introduce the task of future language modeling: probabilistic modeling of texts in the future based on a temporal history of texts. To our knowledge, our work is the first work to formalize the task of predicting the future in this way. We show that it is indeed possible to build future language models that improve upon strong non-temporal language model baselines, opening the door to working on this important, and widely applicable problem.

As AIs rapidly advance and become more agentic, the risk they pose is governed not only by their capabilities but increasingly by their propensities, including goals and values. Tracking the emergence of goals and values has proven a longstanding problem, and despite much interest over the years it remains unclear whether current AIs have meaningful values. We propose a solution to this problem, leveraging the framework of utility functions to study the internal coherence of AI preferences. Surprisingly, we find that independently-sampled preferences in current LLMs exhibit high degrees of structural coherence, and moreover that this emerges with scale. These findings suggest that value systems emerge in LLMs in a meaningful sense, a finding with broad implications. To study these emergent value systems, we propose utility engineering as a research agenda, comprising both the analysis and control of AI utilities. We uncover problematic and often shocking values in LLM assistants despite existing control measures. These include cases where AIs value themselves over humans and are anti-aligned with specific individuals. To constrain these emergent value systems, we propose methods of utility control. As a case study, we show how aligning utilities with a citizen assembly reduces political biases and generalizes to new scenarios. Whether we like it or not, value systems have already emerged in AIs, and much work remains to fully understand and control these emergent representations.

Accurate forecasts of electricity prices are crucial for the management of electric power systems and the development of smart applications. European electricity prices have risen substantially and became highly volatile after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, challenging established forecasting methods. Here, we present a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model for the German-Luxembourg day-ahead electricity prices addressing these challenges. The recurrent structure of the LSTM allows the model to adapt to trends, while the joint prediction of both mean and standard deviation enables a probabilistic prediction. Using a physics-inspired approach - superstatistics - to derive an explanation for the statistics of prices, we show that the LSTM model faithfully reproduces both prices and their volatility.

It is typically understood that the training of modern neural networks is a process of fitting the probability distribution of desired output. However, recent paradoxical observations in a number of language generation tasks let one wonder if this canonical probability-based explanation can really account for the empirical success of deep learning. To resolve this issue, we propose an alternative utility-based explanation to the standard supervised learning procedure in deep learning. The basic idea is to interpret the learned neural network not as a probability model but as an ordinal utility function that encodes the preference revealed in training data. In this perspective, training of the neural network corresponds to a utility learning process. Specifically, we show that for all neural networks with softmax outputs, the SGD learning dynamic of maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) can be seen as an iteration process that optimizes the neural network toward an optimal utility function. This utility-based interpretation can explain several otherwise-paradoxical observations about the neural networks thus trained. Moreover, our utility-based theory also entails an equation that can transform the learned utility values back to a new kind of probability estimation with which probability-compatible decision rules enjoy dramatic (double-digits) performance improvements. These evidences collectively reveal a phenomenon of utility-probability duality in terms of what modern neural networks are (truly) modeling: We thought they are one thing (probabilities), until the unexplainable showed up; changing mindset and treating them as another thing (utility values) largely reconcile the theory, despite remaining subtleties regarding its original (probabilistic) identity.

Accurate prediction of future prices of stocks is a difficult task to perform. Even more challenging is to design an optimized portfolio with weights allocated to the stocks in a way that optimizes its return and the risk. This paper presents a systematic approach towards building two types of portfolios, optimum risk, and eigen, for four critical economic sectors of India. The prices of the stocks are extracted from the web from Jan 1, 2016, to Dec 31, 2020. Sector-wise portfolios are built based on their ten most significant stocks. An LSTM model is also designed for predicting future stock prices. Six months after the construction of the portfolios, i.e., on Jul 1, 2021, the actual returns and the LSTM-predicted returns for the portfolios are computed. A comparison of the predicted and the actual returns indicate a high accuracy level of the LSTM model.

Accurate forecasts for day-ahead photovoltaic (PV) power generation are crucial to support a high PV penetration rate in the local electricity grid and to assure stability in the grid. We use state-of-the-art tree-based machine learning methods to produce such forecasts and, unlike previous studies, we hereby account for (i) the effects various meteorological as well as astronomical features have on PV power production, and this (ii) at coarse as well as granular spatial locations. To this end, we use data from Belgium and forecast day-ahead PV power production at an hourly resolution. The insights from our study can assist utilities, decision-makers, and other stakeholders in optimizing grid operations, economic dispatch, and in facilitating the integration of distributed PV power into the electricity grid.

Background: Electronic Health Records hold detailed longitudinal information about each patient's health status and general clinical history, a large portion of which is stored within the unstructured text. Existing approaches focus mostly on structured data and a subset of single-domain outcomes. We explore how temporal modelling of patients from free text and structured data, using deep generative transformers can be used to forecast a wide range of future disorders, substances, procedures or findings. Methods: We present Foresight, a novel transformer-based pipeline that uses named entity recognition and linking tools to convert document text into structured, coded concepts, followed by providing probabilistic forecasts for future medical events such as disorders, substances, procedures and findings. We processed the entire free-text portion from three different hospital datasets totalling 811336 patients covering both physical and mental health. Findings: On tests in two UK hospitals (King's College Hospital, South London and Maudsley) and the US MIMIC-III dataset precision@10 0.68, 0.76 and 0.88 was achieved for forecasting the next disorder in a patient timeline, while precision@10 of 0.80, 0.81 and 0.91 was achieved for forecasting the next biomedical concept. Foresight was also validated on 34 synthetic patient timelines by five clinicians and achieved relevancy of 97% for the top forecasted candidate disorder. As a generative model, it can forecast follow-on biomedical concepts for as many steps as required. Interpretation: Foresight is a general-purpose model for biomedical concept modelling that can be used for real-world risk forecasting, virtual trials and clinical research to study the progression of disorders, simulate interventions and counterfactuals, and educational purposes.

Paper 1 of this research programme develops a resolution-aware risk-design framework for the simplest event-linked perpetual: a contract whose underlying tracks a single binary prediction-market probability through resolution. The instrument class is broader. Variants span conditional probabilities P(A|B), spreads p^A - p^B, weighted baskets sum w_i p^(i), derivatives on variance or entropy of the probability process, contracts on liquidity itself, perpetual-on-expiring-event roll structures, and funding-only derivatives with no settlement. Each variant inherits some framework components from the single-market binary case and requires its own design adaptations. This paper develops a formal taxonomy of seven pure-form canonical variants beyond the probability-index perpetual of Paper 1, organised along four orthogonal design axes: underlying geometry, temporal structure, settlement structure, and venue composition. The list is not exhaustive; combinations are not treated separately. For each variant we provide a precise payoff definition; an inheritance map identifying which Paper 1 components carry over, are modified, or fail; variant-specific design constraints; microstructure properties; empirical evaluability on the PMXT v2 archive; and limitations. Notable findings: the conditional variant admits a candidate non-portability proposition (denominator instability as the conditioning event becomes improbable); the spread variant requires a three-channel decomposition of resolution risk; the volatility/entropy variant avoids random binary terminal-collapse but introduces estimator-convention and entropy-decay issues; the basket variant requires multi-period jump-aware margin whose aggregation is correlation-dependent. The paper is theoretical primarily; it specifies how demonstrative time series can be constructed and provides evaluability criteria to guide future work.

Next-token prediction (NTP) has driven the success of large language models (LLMs), but it struggles with long-horizon reasoning, planning, and creative writing, with these limitations largely attributed to teacher-forced training. Multi-token prediction (MTP) partially mitigates these issues by predicting several future tokens at once, but it mostly captures short-range dependencies and offers limited improvement. We propose future summary prediction (FSP), which trains an auxiliary head to predict a compact representation of the long-term future, preserving information relevant for long-form generations. We explore two variants of FSP: handcrafted summaries, for example, a bag of words summary of the future sequence, and learned summaries, which use embeddings produced by a reverse language model trained from right-to-left order. Large-scale pretraining experiments (3B and 8B-parameter models) demonstrate that FSP provides improvements over both NTP and MTP across math, reasoning, and coding benchmarks.

Humans possess the remarkable ability to foresee the future to a certain extent based on present observations, a skill we term as foresight minds. However, this capability remains largely under explored within existing Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs), hindering their capacity to learn the fundamental principles of how things operate and the intentions behind the observed subjects. To address this issue, we introduce the integration of future modeling into the existing learning frameworks of MLLMs. By utilizing the subject trajectory, a highly structured representation of a consecutive frame sequence, as a learning objective, we aim to bridge the gap between the past and the future. We propose two innovative methods to empower MLLMs with foresight minds, Foresight Pre-Training (FPT) and Foresight Instruction-Tuning (FIT), which are inspired by the modern learning paradigm of LLMs. Specifically, FPT jointly training various tasks centered on trajectories, enabling MLLMs to learn how to attend and predict entire trajectories from a given initial observation. Then, FIT requires MLLMs to first predict trajectories of related objects and then reason about potential future events based on them. Aided by FPT and FIT, we build a novel and unified MLLM named Merlin that supports multi-images input and analysis about potential actions of multiple objects for the future reasoning. Experimental results show Merlin powerful foresight minds with impressive performance on both future reasoning and visual comprehension tasks.

Accurate and reliable energy time series prediction is of great significance for power generation planning and allocation. At present, deep learning time series prediction has become the mainstream method. However, the multi-scale time dynamics and the irregularity of real data lead to the limitations of the existing methods. Therefore, we propose EnergyPatchTST, which is an extension of the Patch Time Series Transformer specially designed for energy forecasting. The main innovations of our method are as follows: (1) multi-scale feature extraction mechanism to capture patterns with different time resolutions; (2) probability prediction framework to estimate uncertainty through Monte Carlo elimination; (3) integration path of future known variables (such as temperature and wind conditions); And (4) Pre-training and Fine-tuning examples to enhance the performance of limited energy data sets. A series of experiments on common energy data sets show that EnergyPatchTST is superior to other commonly used methods, the prediction error is reduced by 7-12%, and reliable uncertainty estimation is provided, which provides an important reference for time series prediction in the energy field.

The rapid growth of artificial intelligence (AI), particularly Large Language Models (LLMs), has raised concerns regarding its global environmental impact that extends beyond greenhouse gas emissions to include consideration of hardware fabrication and end-of-life processes. The opacity from major providers hinders companies' abilities to evaluate their AI-related environmental impacts and achieve net-zero targets. In this paper, we propose a methodology to estimate the environmental impact of a company's AI portfolio, providing actionable insights without necessitating extensive AI and Life-Cycle Assessment (LCA) expertise. Results confirm that large generative AI models consume up to 4600x more energy than traditional models. Our modelling approach, which accounts for increased AI usage, hardware computing efficiency, and changes in electricity mix in line with IPCC scenarios, forecasts AI electricity use up to 2030. Under a high adoption scenario, driven by widespread Generative AI and agents adoption associated to increasingly complex models and frameworks, AI electricity use is projected to rise by a factor of 24.4. Mitigating the environmental impact of Generative AI by 2030 requires coordinated efforts across the AI value chain. Isolated measures in hardware efficiency, model efficiency, or grid improvements alone are insufficient. We advocate for standardized environmental assessment frameworks, greater transparency from the all actors of the value chain and the introduction of a "Return on Environment" metric to align AI development with net-zero goals.

We introduce distributional dynamic programming (DP) methods for optimizing statistical functionals of the return distribution, with standard reinforcement learning as a special case. Previous distributional DP methods could optimize the same class of expected utilities as classic DP. To go beyond expected utilities, we combine distributional DP with stock augmentation, a technique previously introduced for classic DP in the context of risk-sensitive RL, where the MDP state is augmented with a statistic of the rewards obtained so far (since the first time step). We find that a number of recently studied problems can be formulated as stock-augmented return distribution optimization, and we show that we can use distributional DP to solve them. We analyze distributional value and policy iteration, with bounds and a study of what objectives these distributional DP methods can or cannot optimize. We describe a number of applications outlining how to use distributional DP to solve different stock-augmented return distribution optimization problems, for example maximizing conditional value-at-risk, and homeostatic regulation. To highlight the practical potential of stock-augmented return distribution optimization and distributional DP, we combine the core ideas of distributional value iteration with the deep RL agent DQN, and empirically evaluate it for solving instances of the applications discussed.

Large language models (LLMs) excel at processing information reactively but lack the ability to systemically explore hypothetical futures. They cannot ask, "what if we take this action? how will it affect the final outcome" and forecast its potential consequences before acting. This critical gap limits their utility in dynamic, high-stakes scenarios like strategic planning, risk assessment, and real-time decision making. To bridge this gap, we propose WiA-LLM, a new paradigm that equips LLMs with proactive thinking capabilities. Our approach integrates What-If Analysis (WIA), a systematic approach for evaluating hypothetical scenarios by changing input variables. By leveraging environmental feedback via reinforcement learning, WiA-LLM moves beyond reactive thinking. It dynamically simulates the outcomes of each potential action, enabling the model to anticipate future states rather than merely react to the present conditions. We validate WiA-LLM in Honor of Kings (HoK), a complex multiplayer game environment characterized by rapid state changes and intricate interactions. The game's real-time state changes require precise multi-step consequence prediction, making it an ideal testbed for our approach. Experimental results demonstrate WiA-LLM achieves a remarkable 74.2% accuracy in forecasting game-state changes (up to two times gain over baselines). The model shows particularly significant gains in high-difficulty scenarios where accurate foresight is critical. To our knowledge, this is the first work to formally explore and integrate what-if analysis capabilities within LLMs. WiA-LLM represents a fundamental advance toward proactive reasoning in LLMs, providing a scalable framework for robust decision-making in dynamic environments with broad implications for strategic applications.

Large language model (LLM)-based agents exhibit strong step-by-step reasoning capabilities over short horizons, yet often fail to sustain coherent behavior over long planning horizons. We argue that this failure reflects a fundamental mismatch: step-wise reasoning induces a form of step-wise greedy policy that is adequate for short horizons but fails in long-horizon planning, where early actions must account for delayed consequences. From this planning-centric perspective, we study LLM-based agents in deterministic, fully structured environments with explicit state transitions and evaluation signals. Our analysis reveals a core failure mode of reasoning-based policies: locally optimal choices induced by step-wise scoring lead to early myopic commitments that are systematically amplified over time and difficult to recover from. We introduce FLARE (Future-aware Lookahead with Reward Estimation) as a minimal instantiation of future-aware planning to enforce explicit lookahead, value propagation, and limited commitment in a single model, allowing downstream outcomes to influence early decisions. Across multiple benchmarks, agent frameworks, and LLM backbones, FLARE consistently improves task performance and planning-level behavior, frequently allowing LLaMA-8B with FLARE to outperform GPT-4o with standard step-by-step reasoning. These results establish a clear distinction between reasoning and planning.

Being able to predict what may happen in the future requires an in-depth understanding of the physical and causal rules that govern the world. A model that is able to do so has a number of appealing applications, from robotic planning to representation learning. However, learning to predict raw future observations, such as frames in a video, is exceedingly challenging -- the ambiguous nature of the problem can cause a naively designed model to average together possible futures into a single, blurry prediction. Recently, this has been addressed by two distinct approaches: (a) latent variational variable models that explicitly model underlying stochasticity and (b) adversarially-trained models that aim to produce naturalistic images. However, a standard latent variable model can struggle to produce realistic results, and a standard adversarially-trained model underutilizes latent variables and fails to produce diverse predictions. We show that these distinct methods are in fact complementary. Combining the two produces predictions that look more realistic to human raters and better cover the range of possible futures. Our method outperforms prior and concurrent work in these aspects.

Semantic future prediction is important for autonomous systems navigating dynamic environments. This paper introduces FUTURIST, a method for multimodal future semantic prediction that uses a unified and efficient visual sequence transformer architecture. Our approach incorporates a multimodal masked visual modeling objective and a novel masking mechanism designed for multimodal training. This allows the model to effectively integrate visible information from various modalities, improving prediction accuracy. Additionally, we propose a VAE-free hierarchical tokenization process, which reduces computational complexity, streamlines the training pipeline, and enables end-to-end training with high-resolution, multimodal inputs. We validate FUTURIST on the Cityscapes dataset, demonstrating state-of-the-art performance in future semantic segmentation for both short- and mid-term forecasting. We provide the implementation code at https://github.com/Sta8is/FUTURIST .

Portfolio optimization has been a broad and intense area of interest for quantitative and statistical finance researchers and financial analysts. It is a challenging task to design a portfolio of stocks to arrive at the optimized values of the return and risk. This paper presents an algorithmic approach for designing optimum risk and eigen portfolios for five thematic sectors of the NSE of India. The prices of the stocks are extracted from the web from Jan 1, 2016, to Dec 31, 2020. Optimum risk and eigen portfolios for each sector are designed based on ten critical stocks from the sector. An LSTM model is designed for predicting future stock prices. Seven months after the portfolios were formed, on Aug 3, 2021, the actual returns of the portfolios are compared with the LSTM-predicted returns. The predicted and the actual returns indicate a very high-level accuracy of the LSTM model.