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Aug 21

Group-Graph Policy Optimization for Long-Horizon Agentic Reinforcement Learning

Group-based Reinforcement Learning (RL) has significantly enhanced Large Language Models (LLMs) in agentic scenarios. To achieve finer-grained policy updates, recent agentic RL frameworks have shifted from trajectory-level to step-level training. However, long-horizon agentic RL suffers from severe reward sparsity and delay, as feedback is often deferred for dozens of interaction steps. While existing step-level frameworks refine training granularity, their credit assignment remains coarse-grained and still treats agent exploration as isolated, linear trajectories. This oversimplified perspective ignores the inherent graph structure of state transitions, leading to high-variance state-value estimation and myopic, localized credit assignment. To overcome these critical bottlenecks, we propose Group-Graph Policy Optimization (G2PO), a novel group-based RL algorithm tailored for multi-turn agentic tasks. G2PO explicitly transforms linear interaction trajectories into a global state-transition graph. By aggregating identical observations across different trajectories, we introduce group-aggregation state-value estimation that reduces sampling variance and trajectory-dependent bias. Furthermore, we redefine agent actions as transitions between state nodes and propose an edge-centric advantage estimation strategy. By globally standardizing Temporal Difference (TD) errors across the entire graph, G2PO explicitly identifies and prioritizes critical transitions that drive absolute task progress. Extensive experiments on representative long-horizon benchmarks-WebShop, ALFWorld, and AppWorld-demonstrate that G2PO substantially outperforms state-of-the-art prompt-based and RL baselines, achieving remarkable success rate improvements of up to 22.2% over GRPO.

  • 9 authors
·
Jun 21

VADE: Variance-Aware Dynamic Sampling via Online Sample-Level Difficulty Estimation for Multimodal RL

Group-based policy optimization methods like GRPO and GSPO have become standard for training multimodal models, leveraging group-wise rollouts and relative advantage estimation. However, they suffer from a critical gradient vanishing problem when all responses within a group receive identical rewards, causing advantage estimates to collapse and training signals to diminish. Existing attempts to mitigate this issue fall into two paradigms: filtering-based and sampling-based methods. Filtering-based methods first generate rollouts broadly and then retroactively filter out uninformative groups, leading to substantial computational overhead. Sampling-based methods proactively select effective samples before rollout but rely on static criteria or prior dataset knowledge, lacking real-time adaptability. To address these issues, we propose VADE, a Variance-Aware Dynamic sampling framework via online sample-level difficulty Estimation. Our framework integrates three key components: online sample-level difficulty estimation using Beta distributions, a Thompson sampler that maximizes information gain through the estimated correctness probability, and a two-scale prior decay mechanism that maintains robust estimation under policy evolution. This three components design enables VADE to dynamically select the most informative samples, thereby amplifying training signals while eliminating extra rollout costs. Extensive experiments on multimodal reasoning benchmarks show that VADE consistently outperforms strong baselines in both performance and sample efficiency, while achieving a dramatic reduction in computational overhead. More importantly, our framework can serves as a plug-and-play component to be seamlessly integrated into existing group-based RL algorithms. Code and models are available at https://VADE-RL.github.io.

  • 8 authors
·
Nov 24, 2025

BiPACE: Bisimulation-Guided Policy Optimization with Action Counterfactual Estimation for LLM Agents

Stepwise group-based RL is an attractive way to train long-horizon LLM agents without a learned critic: it reuses multiple sampled rollouts to estimate local advantages. Its weakness is less visible but more fundamental: every group-relative estimator assumes that the steps it compares are equivalent for credit assignment. We show that current agentic variants violate this assumption through a state-action credit mismatch. The observation-hash partition is overly fine on the state side, creating singleton groups with zero step-level signal, while a single within-group mean is too coarse on the action side, mixing state-value estimation with action-specific credit. We introduce BiPACE (Bisimulation-Guided Policy Optimization with Action Counterfactual Estimation), a drop-in advantage estimator that fixes both sides without adding a critic, auxiliary loss, or extra rollouts. BiGPO clusters steps by cosine distance in the actor's own hidden-state geometry, an empirical policy-induced proxy for bisimulation that substantially lowers the singleton rate left by observation hashing. PACE then recenters returns within each behavioral cluster using action-conditioned peer baselines; its Q-style instance estimates a local Q(s,a)-V(s) nonparametrically. On ALFWorld/Qwen2.5-7B, BiPACE_Q raises overall validation success from GiGPO's 90.8 to 97.1pm0.9 over three seeds, and crosses the 95% threshold on every seed, which GiGPO never does within the same budget. On Qwen2.5-1.5B it reaches 93.5pm1.2 versus GiGPO's 86.7, and on WebShop and TextCraft it improves over GRPO and GiGPO at both model scales. The measured BiPACE-specific overhead is 11.3% of a single training-step wall time. Yet it changes the estimator's comparison unit from surface identity to approximate behavioral equivalence plus action-side counterfactuals. The code is available at https://github.com/TianxiangZhao/BiPACE.

  • 7 authors
·
Jun 23

V_0: A Generalist Value Model for Any Policy at State Zero

Policy gradient methods rely on a baseline to measure the relative advantage of an action, ensuring the model reinforces behaviors that outperform its current average capability. In the training of Large Language Models (LLMs) using Actor-Critic methods (e.g., PPO), this baseline is typically estimated by a Value Model (Critic) often as large as the policy model itself. However, as the policy continuously evolves, the value model requires expensive, synchronous incremental training to accurately track the shifting capabilities of the policy. To avoid this overhead, Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) eliminates the coupled value model by using the average reward of a group of rollouts as the baseline; yet, this approach necessitates extensive sampling to maintain estimation stability. In this paper, we propose V_0, a Generalist Value Model capable of estimating the expected performance of any model on unseen prompts without requiring parameter updates. We reframe value estimation by treating the policy's dynamic capability as an explicit context input; specifically, we leverage a history of instruction-performance pairs to dynamically profile the model, departing from the traditional paradigm that relies on parameter fitting to perceive capability shifts. Focusing on value estimation at State Zero (i.e., the initial prompt, hence V_0), our model serves as a critical resource scheduler. During GRPO training, V_0 predicts success rates prior to rollout, allowing for efficient sampling budget allocation; during deployment, it functions as a router, dispatching instructions to the most cost-effective and suitable model. Empirical results demonstrate that V_0 significantly outperforms heuristic budget allocation and achieves a Pareto-optimal trade-off between performance and cost in LLM routing tasks.

  • 9 authors
·
Feb 3

Group-in-Group Policy Optimization for LLM Agent Training

Recent advances in group-based reinforcement learning (RL) have driven frontier large language models (LLMs) in single-turn tasks like mathematical reasoning. However, their scalability to long-horizon LLM agent training remains limited. Unlike static tasks, agent-environment interactions unfold over many steps and often yield sparse or delayed rewards, making credit assignment across individual steps significantly more challenging. In this work, we propose Group-in-Group Policy Optimization (GiGPO), a novel RL algorithm that achieves fine-grained credit assignment for LLM agents while preserving the appealing properties of group-based RL: critic-free, low memory, and stable convergence. GiGPO introduces a two-level structure for estimating relative advantage: (i) At the episode-level, GiGPO computes macro relative advantages based on groups of complete trajectories; (ii) At the step-level, GiGPO introduces an anchor state grouping mechanism that retroactively constructs step-level groups by identifying repeated environment states across trajectories. Actions stemming from the same state are grouped together, enabling micro relative advantage estimation. This hierarchical structure effectively captures both global trajectory quality and local step effectiveness without relying on auxiliary models or additional rollouts. We evaluate GiGPO on two challenging agent benchmarks, ALFWorld and WebShop, using Qwen2.5-1.5B-Instruct and Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct. Crucially, GiGPO delivers fine-grained per-step credit signals and achieves performance gains of > 12\% on ALFWorld and > 9\% on WebShop over the GRPO baseline: all while maintaining the same GPU memory overhead, identical LLM rollout, and incurring little to no additional time cost.

  • 4 authors
·
May 16, 2025

Hölder Policy Optimisation

Group Relative Policy Optimisation (GRPO) enhances large language models by estimating advantages across a group of sampled trajectories. However, mapping these trajectory-level advantages to policy updates requires aggregating token-level probabilities within each sequence. Relying on a fixed aggregation mechanism for this step fundamentally limits the algorithm's adaptability. Empirically, we observe a critical trade-off: certain fixed aggregations frequently suffer from training collapse, while others fail to yield satisfactory performance. To resolve this, we propose HölderPO, a generalised policy optimisation framework unifying token-level probability aggregation via the Hölder mean. By explicitly modulating the parameter p, our framework provides continuous control over the trade-off between gradient concentration and variance bounds. Theoretically, we prove that a larger p concentrates the gradient to amplify sparse learning signals, whereas a smaller p strictly bounds gradient variance. Because no static configuration can universally resolve this concentration-stability trade-off, we instantiate the framework with a dynamic annealing algorithm that progressively schedules p across the training lifecycle. Extensive evaluations demonstrate superior stability and convergence over existing baselines. Specifically, our approach achieves a state-of-the-art average accuracy of 54.9% across multiple mathematical benchmarks, yielding a substantial 7.2% relative gain over standard GRPO and secures an exceptional 93.8% success rate on ALFWorld.

  • 11 authors
·
May 11 2

GDPO-SR: Group Direct Preference Optimization for One-Step Generative Image Super-Resolution

Recently, reinforcement learning (RL) has been employed for improving generative image super-resolution (ISR) performance. However, the current efforts are focused on multi-step generative ISR, while one-step generative ISR remains underexplored due to its limited stochasticity. In addition, RL methods such as Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) require the generation of positive and negative sample pairs offline, leading to a limited number of samples, while Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) only calculates the likelihood of the entire image, ignoring local details that are crucial for ISR. In this paper, we propose Group Direct Preference Optimization (GDPO), a novel approach to integrate RL into one-step generative ISR model training. First, we introduce a noise-aware one-step diffusion model that can generate diverse ISR outputs. To prevent performance degradation caused by noise injection, we introduce an unequal-timestep strategy to decouple the timestep of noise addition from that of diffusion. We then present the GDPO strategy, which integrates the principle of GRPO into DPO, to calculate the group-relative advantage of each online generated sample for model optimization. Meanwhile, an attribute-aware reward function is designed to dynamically evaluate the score of each sample based on its statistics of smooth and texture areas. Experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of GDPO in enhancing the performance of one-step generative ISR models. Code: https://github.com/Joyies/GDPO.

  • 6 authors
·
Mar 16

Flag Aggregator: Scalable Distributed Training under Failures and Augmented Losses using Convex Optimization

Modern ML applications increasingly rely on complex deep learning models and large datasets. There has been an exponential growth in the amount of computation needed to train the largest models. Therefore, to scale computation and data, these models are inevitably trained in a distributed manner in clusters of nodes, and their updates are aggregated before being applied to the model. However, a distributed setup is prone to Byzantine failures of individual nodes, components, and software. With data augmentation added to these settings, there is a critical need for robust and efficient aggregation systems. We define the quality of workers as reconstruction ratios in (0,1], and formulate aggregation as a Maximum Likelihood Estimation procedure using Beta densities. We show that the Regularized form of log-likelihood wrt subspace can be approximately solved using iterative least squares solver, and provide convergence guarantees using recent Convex Optimization landscape results. Our empirical findings demonstrate that our approach significantly enhances the robustness of state-of-the-art Byzantine resilient aggregators. We evaluate our method in a distributed setup with a parameter server, and show simultaneous improvements in communication efficiency and accuracy across various tasks. The code is publicly available at https://github.com/hamidralmasi/FlagAggregator

  • 4 authors
·
Feb 12, 2023

What are the best systems? New perspectives on NLP Benchmarking

In Machine Learning, a benchmark refers to an ensemble of datasets associated with one or multiple metrics together with a way to aggregate different systems performances. They are instrumental in (i) assessing the progress of new methods along different axes and (ii) selecting the best systems for practical use. This is particularly the case for NLP with the development of large pre-trained models (e.g. GPT, BERT) that are expected to generalize well on a variety of tasks. While the community mainly focused on developing new datasets and metrics, there has been little interest in the aggregation procedure, which is often reduced to a simple average over various performance measures. However, this procedure can be problematic when the metrics are on a different scale, which may lead to spurious conclusions. This paper proposes a new procedure to rank systems based on their performance across different tasks. Motivated by the social choice theory, the final system ordering is obtained through aggregating the rankings induced by each task and is theoretically grounded. We conduct extensive numerical experiments (on over 270k scores) to assess the soundness of our approach both on synthetic and real scores (e.g. GLUE, EXTREM, SEVAL, TAC, FLICKR). In particular, we show that our method yields different conclusions on state-of-the-art systems than the mean-aggregation procedure while being both more reliable and robust.

  • 4 authors
·
Feb 8, 2022

Balanced Aggregation: Understanding and Fixing Aggregation Bias in GRPO

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) has become a central paradigm for improving reasoning and code generation in large language models, and GRPO-style training is widely adopted for its simplicity and effectiveness. However, an important design choice remains underexplored: how token-level policy gradient terms are aggregated within each sampled group. Standard GRPO uses sequence aggregation, while recent work has advocated token aggregation as a better alternative. We show that these two rules induce different optimization biases: token aggregation introduces sign-length coupling, while sequence aggregation implicitly downweights longer responses through sequence-level equal weighting. To address this tension, we propose Balanced Aggregation (BA), a simple drop-in replacement that computes token-level means separately within the positive and negative subsets and then combines them with sequence-count-based weights. Experiments with Qwen2.5-Math-7B and Qwen3-1.7B on DAPO-17k and Polaris, evaluated on six reasoning and coding benchmarks, show that BA consistently improves training stability and final performance over standard token and sequence aggregation. Our analysis further shows that the relative effectiveness of token and sequence aggregation is largely governed by response-length variation and the positive-negative length gap, highlighting aggregation as a critical design dimension in GRPO-style RLVR.

OpenMOSS-Team OpenMOSS
·
Apr 13 2

Beyond Majority Voting: Towards Fine-grained and More Reliable Reward Signal for Test-Time Reinforcement Learning

Test-time reinforcement learning mitigates the reliance on annotated data by using majority voting results as pseudo-labels, emerging as a complementary direction to reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) for improving reasoning ability of large language models (LLMs). However, this voting strategy often induces confirmation bias and suffers from sparse rewards, limiting the overall performance. In this work, we propose subgroup-specific step-wise confidence-weighted pseudo-label estimation (SCOPE), a framework integrating model confidence and dynamic subgroup partitioning to address these issues. Specifically, SCOPE integrates the proposed step-wise confidence into pseudo label deduction, prioritizing high-quality reasoning paths over simple frequency count. Furthermore, it dynamically partitions the candidate outputs pool into independent subgroups by balancing reasoning quality against exploration diversity. By deriving local consensus via repeat sampling for each sub group, SCOPE provides diverse supervision targets to encourage broader exploration. We conduct experiments across various models and benchmarks, experimental results show that SCOPE consistently outperforms recent baselines. Notably, SCOPE achieving relative improvements of 13.1% on challenging AIME 2025 and 8.1% on AMC. The code is released at https://github.com/szu-tera/SCOPE.

  • 4 authors
·
Dec 17, 2025

Learning from Aggregate responses: Instance Level versus Bag Level Loss Functions

Due to the rise of privacy concerns, in many practical applications the training data is aggregated before being shared with the learner, in order to protect privacy of users' sensitive responses. In an aggregate learning framework, the dataset is grouped into bags of samples, where each bag is available only with an aggregate response, providing a summary of individuals' responses in that bag. In this paper, we study two natural loss functions for learning from aggregate responses: bag-level loss and the instance-level loss. In the former, the model is learnt by minimizing a loss between aggregate responses and aggregate model predictions, while in the latter the model aims to fit individual predictions to the aggregate responses. In this work, we show that the instance-level loss can be perceived as a regularized form of the bag-level loss. This observation lets us compare the two approaches with respect to bias and variance of the resulting estimators, and introduce a novel interpolating estimator which combines the two approaches. For linear regression tasks, we provide a precise characterization of the risk of the interpolating estimator in an asymptotic regime where the size of the training set grows in proportion to the features dimension. Our analysis allows us to theoretically understand the effect of different factors, such as bag size on the model prediction risk. In addition, we propose a mechanism for differentially private learning from aggregate responses and derive the optimal bag size in terms of prediction risk-privacy trade-off. We also carry out thorough experiments to corroborate our theory and show the efficacy of the interpolating estimator.

  • 5 authors
·
Jan 19, 2024

Hierarchy-of-Groups Policy Optimization for Long-Horizon Agentic Tasks

Group-based reinforcement learning (RL), such as GRPO, has advanced the capabilities of large language models on long-horizon agentic tasks. To enable more fine-grained policy updates, recent research has increasingly shifted toward stepwise group-based policy optimization, which treats each step in a rollout trajectory independently while using a memory module to retain historical context. However, we find a key issue in estimating stepwise relative advantages, namely context inconsistency, where steps within the same group may differ in their historical contexts. Empirically, we reveal that this issue can lead to severely biased advantage estimation, thereby degrading policy optimization significantly. To address the issue, in this paper, we propose Hierarchy-of-Groups Policy Optimization (HGPO) for long-horizon agentic tasks. Specifically, within a group of rollout trajectories, HGPO assigns each step to multiple hierarchical groups according to the consistency of historical contexts. Then, for each step, HGPO computes distinct advantages within each group and aggregates them with an adaptive weighting scheme. In this way, HGPO can achieve a favorable bias-variance trade-off in stepwise advantage estimation, without extra models or rollouts. Evaluations on two challenging agentic tasks, ALFWorld and WebShop with Qwen2.5-1.5B-Instruct and Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct, show that HGPO significantly outperforms existing agentic RL methods under the same computational constraints. Code is available at https://github.com/langfengQ/verl-agent/tree/master/recipe/hgpo.

  • 6 authors
·
Feb 26

Polynomial-Time Optimal Group Selection via the Double-Commutator Eigenvalue Problem

The algebraic diversity framework generalizes temporal averaging over multiple observations to algebraic group action on a single observation for second-order statistical estimation. The central open problem in this framework is group selection: given an M-dimensional observation with unknown covariance structure, find the finite group whose spectral decomposition best matches the covariance. Naive enumeration of all subgroups of the symmetric group S_M requires exponential time in M. We prove that this combinatorial problem reduces to a generalized eigenvalue problem derived from the double commutator of the covariance matrix, yielding a polynomial-time algorithm with complexity O(d^2M^2 + d^3), where d is the dimension of a generator basis. The minimum eigenvector of the double-commutator matrix directly constructs the optimal group generator in closed form, with no iterative optimization. The reduction is exact: the double-commutator minimum eigenvalue is zero if and only if the optimal generator lies in the span of the basis, and its magnitude provides a certifiable optimality gap when it does not. This problem does not appear in the standard catalogs of computational complexity (Garey and Johnson, 1979) and represents a new class linking group theory, matrix analysis, and statistical estimation. We establish connections to independent component analysis (JADE), structured matrix nearness problems, and simultaneous matrix diagonalization, and we show that the double-commutator formulation is the unique approach that is simultaneously polynomial-time, closed-form, and certifiable. We extend the framework to non-Abelian symmetry recovery via a Sequential GEVP with deflation, and add two identifiability theorems characterizing the commutant-lattice ambiguity and the dichotomy on whether Aut(R) recovers a generative subgroup or only a supergroup.

  • 1 authors
·
May 7

UniT: Unified Geometry Learning with Group Autoregressive Transformer

Recent feed-forward models have significantly advanced geometry perception for inferring dense 3D structure from sensor observations. However, its essential capabilities remain fragmented across multiple incompatible paradigms, including online perception, offline reconstruction, multi-modal integration, long-horizon scalability, and metric-scale estimation. We present UniT, a unified model built upon a novel Group Autoregressive Transformer, which reformulates these seemingly disparate capabilities within a single framework. The key idea is to treat groups of sensor observations as the basic autoregressive units and predict the corresponding point maps in an anchor-free and scale-adaptive manner. More specifically, diverse view configurations in both online and offline settings are naturally unified within a single group autoregression process. By varying the group size, online mode operates over multiple autoregressive steps with single-frame groups, whereas offline mode aggregates a multi-frame group in a single forward pass. Meanwhile, a queue-style KV caching mechanism ensures bounded autoregressive memory over long horizons. This is enabled by reducing long-range dependencies on early frames through anchor-free relational modeling, thereby allowing outdated memory to be discarded on the fly. To improve metric-scale generalization across scenes, a scale-adaptive geometry loss is further introduced within this framework. It couples relative geometric constraints with a partial absolute scale term, implicitly regularizing global scale and inducing a progressive transition from scale-invariant geometry to metric-scale solutions. Together with a dedicated modal attention module for integrating auxiliary modalities, UniT achieves state-of-the-art performance in unified geometry perception, as validated on ten benchmarks spanning seven representative tasks.

HKUSTGZ HKUSTGZ
·
May 19 1

Anchoring Values in Temporal and Group Dimensions for Flow Matching Model Alignment

Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) has proven highly effective in enhancing the alignment capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs). However, current adaptations of GRPO for the flow matching-based image generation neglect a foundational conflict between its core principles and the distinct dynamics of the visual synthesis process. This mismatch leads to two key limitations: (i) Uniformly applying a sparse terminal reward across all timesteps impairs temporal credit assignment, ignoring the differing criticality of generation phases from early structure formation to late-stage tuning. (ii) Exclusive reliance on relative, intra-group rewards causes the optimization signal to fade as training converges, leading to the optimization stagnation when reward diversity is entirely depleted. To address these limitations, we propose Value-Anchored Group Policy Optimization (VGPO), a framework that redefines value estimation across both temporal and group dimensions. Specifically, VGPO transforms the sparse terminal reward into dense, process-aware value estimates, enabling precise credit assignment by modeling the expected cumulative reward at each generative stage. Furthermore, VGPO replaces standard group normalization with a novel process enhanced by absolute values to maintain a stable optimization signal even as reward diversity declines. Extensive experiments on three benchmarks demonstrate that VGPO achieves state-of-the-art image quality while simultaneously improving task-specific accuracy, effectively mitigating reward hacking. Project webpage: https://yawen-shao.github.io/VGPO/.

  • 7 authors
·
Dec 13, 2025

A Lightweight Method for Tackling Unknown Participation Statistics in Federated Averaging

In federated learning (FL), clients usually have diverse participation statistics that are unknown a priori, which can significantly harm the performance of FL if not handled properly. Existing works aiming at addressing this problem are usually based on global variance reduction, which requires a substantial amount of additional memory in a multiplicative factor equal to the total number of clients. An important open problem is to find a lightweight method for FL in the presence of clients with unknown participation rates. In this paper, we address this problem by adapting the aggregation weights in federated averaging (FedAvg) based on the participation history of each client. We first show that, with heterogeneous participation statistics, FedAvg with non-optimal aggregation weights can diverge from the optimal solution of the original FL objective, indicating the need of finding optimal aggregation weights. However, it is difficult to compute the optimal weights when the participation statistics are unknown. To address this problem, we present a new algorithm called FedAU, which improves FedAvg by adaptively weighting the client updates based on online estimates of the optimal weights without knowing the statistics of client participation. We provide a theoretical convergence analysis of FedAU using a novel methodology to connect the estimation error and convergence. Our theoretical results reveal important and interesting insights, while showing that FedAU converges to an optimal solution of the original objective and has desirable properties such as linear speedup. Our experimental results also verify the advantage of FedAU over baseline methods with various participation patterns.

  • 2 authors
·
Jun 6, 2023

MC-GRPO: Median-Centered Group Relative Policy Optimization for Small-Rollout Reinforcement Learning

Group-relative policy optimization methods train language models by generating multiple rollouts per prompt and normalizing rewards with a shared mean reward baseline. In resource-constrained settings where the rollout budget is small, accuracy often degrades. We find that noise in the shared baseline induces advantage sign flips, where some rollouts receive an incorrect advantage sign, and the update direction is reversed. To address this, we propose Median-Centered Group Relative Policy Optimization (MC-GRPO), a simple and effective solution for small-rollout training. Our main idea is to replace the mean baseline with a median baseline: the median is far less sensitive to outlier rewards than the mean, mitigating the sign flips under small rollout size (G). We generate one additional rollout for median reference (G+1), and compute advantages by using the group median. With an odd-sized group, exactly one completion is the median and receives zero advantage, we exclude this pivot rollout from backpropagation so the number of gradient-contributing samples per prompt remains G, preserving the core update cost of standard G-rollout training. Across various GRPO-family methods and a wide range of models and scales, this median-centered training consistently improves stability and final accuracy in the low-rollout regime, reducing the gap between G=2 and G=8 to within 1%. Code is available at https://github.com/lotusroot-kim/MC-GRPO

  • 1 authors
·
Jan 30

NGRPO: Negative-enhanced Group Relative Policy Optimization

RLVR has enhanced the reasoning capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) across various tasks. However, GRPO, a representative RLVR algorithm, suffers from a critical limitation: when all responses within a group are either entirely correct or entirely incorrect, the model fails to learn from these homogeneous responses. This is particularly problematic for homogeneously incorrect groups, where GRPO's advantage function yields a value of zero, leading to null gradients and the loss of valuable learning signals. To overcome this issue, we propose NGRPO (Negative-enhanced Group Relative Policy Optimization), an algorithm designed to convert homogeneous errors into robust learning signals. First, NGRPO introduces Advantage Calibration. This mechanism hypothesizes the existence of a virtual maximum-reward sample during advantage calculation, thereby altering the mean and variance of rewards within a group and ensuring that the advantages for homogeneously incorrect samples are no longer zero. Second, NGRPO employs Asymmetric Clipping, which relaxes the update magnitude for positive samples while imposing stricter constraints on that of negative samples. This serves to stabilize the exploration pressure introduced by the advantage calibration. Our experiments on Qwen2.5-Math-7B demonstrate that NGRPO significantly outperforms baselines such as PPO, GRPO, DAPO, and PSR-NSR on mathematical benchmarks including MATH500, AMC23, and AIME2025. These results validate NGRPO's ability to learn from homogeneous errors, leading to stable and substantial improvements in mathematical reasoning. Our code is available at https://github.com/nangongrui-ngr/NGRPO.

  • 11 authors
·
Sep 23, 2025

Group Entropy-Controlled Policy Optimization

Entropy control has become an effective tool in reinforcement learning (RL) of large language models (LLMs), helping balance exploration-exploitation trade-off during alignment process. Such RL paradigm is often conducted on mixtures of heterogeneous tasks, which induce distinct entropy regimes under the same policy, making global or token-level entropy regulation insufficient to corresponding heterogeneous needs of exploration. This heterogeneity further makes GRPO-style normalized advantages induce an entropy-dependent bias, making advantage signals across prompt groups statistically non-comparable. To address this issue, we propose Group Entropy-Controlled Policy Optimization (GEPO), a lightweight extension to GRPO that uses group entropy, estimated from existing grouped samples to perform entropy-conditioned asymmetric advantage shaping. GEPO attenuates positive advantages in low-entropy groups to reduce over-exploitation, and negative advantages in high-entropy groups to preserve exploration, with adaptive thresholds derived from historical entropy statistics. Extensive experiments on two base models across thirteen benchmarks spanning mathematics, physics, science, code generation, and instruction following show that GEPO consistently outperforms GRPO and recent entropy-controlled methods, delivering balanced cross-task improvements while preserving task-specific exploration levels throughout training.

Fast, Expressive SE(n) Equivariant Networks through Weight-Sharing in Position-Orientation Space

Based on the theory of homogeneous spaces we derive geometrically optimal edge attributes to be used within the flexible message-passing framework. We formalize the notion of weight sharing in convolutional networks as the sharing of message functions over point-pairs that should be treated equally. We define equivalence classes of point-pairs that are identical up to a transformation in the group and derive attributes that uniquely identify these classes. Weight sharing is then obtained by conditioning message functions on these attributes. As an application of the theory, we develop an efficient equivariant group convolutional network for processing 3D point clouds. The theory of homogeneous spaces tells us how to do group convolutions with feature maps over the homogeneous space of positions R^3, position and orientations R^3 {times} S^2, and the group SE(3) itself. Among these, R^3 {times} S^2 is an optimal choice due to the ability to represent directional information, which R^3 methods cannot, and it significantly enhances computational efficiency compared to indexing features on the full SE(3) group. We support this claim with state-of-the-art results -- in accuracy and speed -- on five different benchmarks in 2D and 3D, including interatomic potential energy prediction, trajectory forecasting in N-body systems, and generating molecules via equivariant diffusion models.

  • 5 authors
·
Oct 4, 2023

GoAgent: Group-of-Agents Communication Topology Generation for LLM-based Multi-Agent Systems

Large language model (LLM)-based multi-agent systems (MAS) have demonstrated exceptional capabilities in solving complex tasks, yet their effectiveness depends heavily on the underlying communication topology that coordinates agent interactions. Within these systems, successful problem-solving often necessitates task-specific group structures to divide and conquer subtasks. However, most existing approaches generate communication topologies in a node-centric manner, leaving group structures to emerge implicitly from local connectivity decisions rather than modeling them explicitly, often leading to suboptimal coordination and unnecessary communication overhead. To address this limitation, we propose GoAgent (Group-of-Agents), a communication topology generation method that explicitly treats collaborative groups as the atomic units of MAS construction. Specifically, GoAgent first enumerates task-relevant candidate groups through an LLM and then autoregressively selects and connects these groups as atomic units to construct the final communication graph, jointly capturing intra-group cohesion and inter-group coordination. To mitigate communication redundancy and noise propagation inherent in expanding topologies, we further introduce a conditional information bottleneck (CIB) objective that compresses inter-group communication, preserving task-relevant signals while filtering out redundant historical noise. Extensive experiments on six benchmarks demonstrate the state-of-the-art performance of GoAgent with 93.84% average accuracy while reducing token consumption by about 17%.

  • 10 authors
·
Mar 20

V_{0.5}: Generalist Value Model as a Prior for Sparse RL Rollouts

In Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR), constructing a robust advantage baseline is critical for policy gradients, effectively guiding the policy model to reinforce desired behaviors. Recent research has introduced Generalist Value Models (such as V_0), which achieve pre-trained value estimation by explicitly encoding model capabilities in-context, eliminating the need to synchronously update the value model alongside the policy model. In this paper, we propose V_{0.5}, which adaptively fuses the baseline predicted by such value model (acting as a prior) with the empirical mean derived from sparse rollouts. This constructs a robust baseline that balances computational efficiency with extremely low variance. Specifically, we introduce a real-time statistical testing and dynamic budget allocation. This balances the high variance caused by sparse sampling against the systematic bias (or hallucinations) inherent in the value model's prior. By constructing a hypothesis test to evaluate the prior's reliability in real-time, the system dynamically allocates additional rollout budget on demand. This mechanism minimizes the baseline estimator's Mean Squared Error (MSE), guaranteeing stable policy gradients, even under extreme sparsity with a group size of 4. Extensive evaluations across six mathematical reasoning benchmarks demonstrate that V_{0.5} significantly outperforms GRPO and DAPO, achieving faster convergence and over some 10% performance improvement.

meituan-longcat LongCat
·
Mar 11 1

GroupEnsemble: Efficient Uncertainty Estimation for DETR-based Object Detection

Detection Transformer (DETR) and its variants show strong performance on object detection, a key task for autonomous systems. However, a critical limitation of these models is that their confidence scores only reflect semantic uncertainty, failing to capture the equally important spatial uncertainty. This results in an incomplete assessment of the detection reliability. On the other hand, Deep Ensembles can tackle this by providing high-quality spatial uncertainty estimates. However, their immense memory consumption makes them impractical for real-world applications. A cheaper alternative, Monte Carlo (MC) Dropout, suffers from high latency due to the need of multiple forward passes during inference to estimate uncertainty. To address these limitations, we introduce GroupEnsemble, an efficient and effective uncertainty estimation method for DETR-like models. GroupEnsemble simultaneously predicts multiple individual detection sets by feeding additional diverse groups of object queries to the transformer decoder during inference. Each query group is transformed by the shared decoder in isolation and predicts a complete detection set for the same input. An attention mask is applied to the decoder to prevent inter-group query interactions, ensuring each group detects independently to achieve reliable ensemble-based uncertainty estimation. By leveraging the decoder's inherent parallelism, GroupEnsemble efficiently estimates uncertainty in a single forward pass without sequential repetition. We validated our method under autonomous driving scenes and common daily scenes using the Cityscapes and COCO datasets, respectively. The results show that a hybrid approach combining MC-Dropout and GroupEnsemble outperforms Deep Ensembles on several metrics at a fraction of the cost. The code is available at https://github.com/yutongy98/GroupEnsemble.

Single-stream Policy Optimization

We revisit policy-gradient optimization for Large Language Models (LLMs) from a single-stream perspective. Prevailing group-based methods like GRPO reduce variance with on-the-fly baselines but suffer from critical flaws: frequent degenerate groups erase learning signals, and synchronization barriers hinder scalability. We introduce Single-stream Policy Optimization (SPO), which eliminates these issues by design. SPO replaces per-group baselines with a persistent, KL-adaptive value tracker and normalizes advantages globally across the batch, providing a stable, low-variance learning signal for every sample. Being group-free, SPO enables higher throughput and scales effectively in long-horizon or tool-integrated settings where generation times vary. Furthermore, the persistent value tracker naturally enables an adaptive curriculum via prioritized sampling. Experiments using Qwen3-8B show that SPO converges more smoothly and attains higher accuracy than GRPO, while eliminating computation wasted on degenerate groups. Ablation studies confirm that SPO's gains stem from its principled approach to baseline estimation and advantage normalization, offering a more robust and efficient path for LLM reasoning. Across five hard math benchmarks with Qwen3 8B, SPO improves the average maj@32 by +3.4 percentage points (pp) over GRPO, driven by substantial absolute point gains on challenging datasets, including +7.3 pp on BRUMO 25, +4.4 pp on AIME 25, +3.3 pp on HMMT 25, and achieves consistent relative gain in pass@k across the evaluated k values. SPO's success challenges the prevailing trend of adding incidental complexity to RL algorithms, highlighting a path where fundamental principles, not architectural workarounds, drive the next wave of progress in LLM reasoning.

tencent Tencent
·
Sep 16, 2025 3

sGPO: Trading Inference FLOPs for Training Efficiency in RLVR

Standard Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) training allocates a fixed rollout budget to every query, without regard for what each query's difficulty means for the current policy. This leads to two symmetric failure modes: easy queries produce near-zero advantage because the policy already solves them, while unsolvable queries produce no signal because the policy never solves them. Both regimes waste training FLOPs without contributing to a learning gradient. We introduce sorted Group Policy Optimization (sGPO), a compute-efficient strategy that trades a small budget of inference FLOPs for a large reduction in wasted training FLOPs. The key insight is that cheap inference compute can serve as a single offline proxy for query difficulty. By generating a small batch of parallel samples per query under the initial policy, we obtain a model-aware empirical success rate. This motivates setting the training rollout group size to the inverse of this success rate, a practical rule that maximizes sample efficiency by extracting the most advantage per generated rollout. This single profiling pass simultaneously drives data filtering (removing trivial queries and sub-sampling unsolvable ones), adaptive group size allocation, and curriculum construction (scheduling queries from easy to hard). sGPO matches or exceeds baseline performance while reducing total training compute by a factor of three, with the upfront inference profiling cost included.

  • 4 authors
·
Jun 6

ONEBench to Test Them All: Sample-Level Benchmarking Over Open-Ended Capabilities

Traditional fixed test sets fall short in evaluating open-ended capabilities of foundation models. To address this, we propose ONEBench(OpeN-Ended Benchmarking), a new testing paradigm that consolidates individual evaluation datasets into a unified, ever-expanding sample pool. ONEBench allows users to generate custom, open-ended evaluation benchmarks from this pool, corresponding to specific capabilities of interest. By aggregating samples across test sets, ONEBench enables the assessment of diverse capabilities beyond those covered by the original test sets, while mitigating overfitting and dataset bias. Most importantly, it frames model evaluation as a collective process of selecting and aggregating sample-level tests. The shift from task-specific benchmarks to ONEBench introduces two challenges: (1)heterogeneity and (2)incompleteness. Heterogeneity refers to the aggregation over diverse metrics, while incompleteness describes comparing models evaluated on different data subsets. To address these challenges, we explore algorithms to aggregate sparse measurements into reliable model scores. Our aggregation algorithm ensures identifiability(asymptotically recovering ground-truth scores) and rapid convergence, enabling accurate model ranking with less data. On homogenous datasets, we show our aggregation algorithm provides rankings that highly correlate with those produced by average scores. We also demonstrate robustness to ~95% of measurements missing, reducing evaluation cost by up to 20x with little-to-no change in model rankings. We introduce ONEBench-LLM for language models and ONEBench-LMM for vision-language models, unifying evaluations across these domains. Overall, we present a technique for open-ended evaluation, which can aggregate over incomplete, heterogeneous sample-level measurements to continually grow a benchmark alongside the rapidly developing foundation models.

  • 6 authors
·
Dec 9, 2024 2

Evaluating AI systems under uncertain ground truth: a case study in dermatology

For safety, medical AI systems undergo thorough evaluations before deployment, validating their predictions against a ground truth which is assumed to be fixed and certain. However, this ground truth is often curated in the form of differential diagnoses. While a single differential diagnosis reflects the uncertainty in one expert assessment, multiple experts introduce another layer of uncertainty through disagreement. Both forms of uncertainty are ignored in standard evaluation which aggregates these differential diagnoses to a single label. In this paper, we show that ignoring uncertainty leads to overly optimistic estimates of model performance, therefore underestimating risk associated with particular diagnostic decisions. To this end, we propose a statistical aggregation approach, where we infer a distribution on probabilities of underlying medical condition candidates themselves, based on observed annotations. This formulation naturally accounts for the potential disagreements between different experts, as well as uncertainty stemming from individual differential diagnoses, capturing the entire ground truth uncertainty. Our approach boils down to generating multiple samples of medical condition probabilities, then evaluating and averaging performance metrics based on these sampled probabilities. In skin condition classification, we find that a large portion of the dataset exhibits significant ground truth uncertainty and standard evaluation severely over-estimates performance without providing uncertainty estimates. In contrast, our framework provides uncertainty estimates on common metrics of interest such as top-k accuracy and average overlap, showing that performance can change multiple percentage points. We conclude that, while assuming a crisp ground truth can be acceptable for many AI applications, a more nuanced evaluation protocol should be utilized in medical diagnosis.

  • 20 authors
·
Jul 5, 2023

Pushing Biomolecular Utility-Diversity Frontiers with Supergroup Relative Policy Optimization

Biomolecular generators are often adapted with reward feedback to improve task-specific utility, but pushing utility alone can concentrate generation on a narrow family of candidates. Maintaining diversity is difficult because sample diversity is a set-level property. We introduce Supergroup Relative Policy Optimization (SGRPO), a flexible GRPO-style framework that directly constructs rewards from set-level diversity. For each condition, SGRPO samples a supergroup of candidate sets, compares their diversity under the same condition, and redistributes the group diversity reward to individual rollouts through leave-one-out diversity contributions before combining it with rollout-level utility. This design decouples SGRPO from a particular generator, utility reward, or diversity metric, and allows instantiation with different GRPO-style approaches. We evaluate SGRPO on de novo small-molecule design, pocket-based small-molecule design, and de novo protein design, instantiating it with both GRPO and Coupled-GRPO across autoregressive and discrete diffusion generators. Across decoding sweeps, SGRPO expands the utility-diversity Pareto frontier and achieves the best frontier-level metrics relative to pretrained generators, GRPO, and memory-assisted GRPO when applicable. Our analyses further show that direct set-level diversity rewards remain effective with small groups and help preserve broader generation-distribution coverage during post-training. The code is available at https://github.com/IDEA-XL/SGRPO.

IDEA-XL IDEA-XL
·
May 8 1

iGRPO: Self-Feedback-Driven LLM Reasoning

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown promise in solving complex mathematical problems, yet they still fall short of producing accurate and consistent solutions. Reinforcement Learning (RL) is a framework for aligning these models with task-specific rewards, improving overall quality and reliability. Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) is an efficient, value-function-free alternative to Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) that leverages group-relative reward normalization. We introduce Iterative Group Relative Policy Optimization (iGRPO), a two-stage extension of GRPO that adds dynamic self-conditioning through model-generated drafts. In Stage 1, iGRPO samples multiple exploratory drafts and selects the highest-reward draft using the same scalar reward signal used for optimization. In Stage 2, it appends this best draft to the original prompt and applies a GRPO-style update on draft-conditioned refinements, training the policy to improve beyond its strongest prior attempt. Under matched rollout budgets, iGRPO consistently outperforms GRPO across base models (e.g., Nemotron-H-8B-Base-8K and DeepSeek-R1 Distilled), validating its effectiveness on diverse reasoning benchmarks. Moreover, applying iGRPO to OpenReasoning-Nemotron-7B trained on AceReason-Math achieves new state-of-the-art results of 85.62\% and 79.64\% on AIME24 and AIME25, respectively. Ablations further show that the refinement wrapper generalizes beyond GRPO variants, benefits from a generative judge, and alters learning dynamics by delaying entropy collapse. These results underscore the potential of iterative, self-feedback-based RL for advancing verifiable mathematical reasoning.

nvidia NVIDIA
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Feb 9 2

A Discriminative Approach to Bayesian Filtering with Applications to Human Neural Decoding

Given a stationary state-space model that relates a sequence of hidden states and corresponding measurements or observations, Bayesian filtering provides a principled statistical framework for inferring the posterior distribution of the current state given all measurements up to the present time. For example, the Apollo lunar module implemented a Kalman filter to infer its location from a sequence of earth-based radar measurements and land safely on the moon. To perform Bayesian filtering, we require a measurement model that describes the conditional distribution of each observation given state. The Kalman filter takes this measurement model to be linear, Gaussian. Here we show how a nonlinear, Gaussian approximation to the distribution of state given observation can be used in conjunction with Bayes' rule to build a nonlinear, non-Gaussian measurement model. The resulting approach, called the Discriminative Kalman Filter (DKF), retains fast closed-form updates for the posterior. We argue there are many cases where the distribution of state given measurement is better-approximated as Gaussian, especially when the dimensionality of measurements far exceeds that of states and the Bernstein-von Mises theorem applies. Online neural decoding for brain-computer interfaces provides a motivating example, where filtering incorporates increasingly detailed measurements of neural activity to provide users control over external devices. Within the BrainGate2 clinical trial, the DKF successfully enabled three volunteers with quadriplegia to control an on-screen cursor in real-time using mental imagery alone. Participant "T9" used the DKF to type out messages on a tablet PC.

  • 1 authors
·
Jul 16, 2018

Calibration-Aware Policy Optimization for Reasoning LLMs

Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) enhances LLM reasoning but often induces overconfidence, where incorrect responses yield lower perplexity than correct ones, degrading relative calibration as described by the Area Under the Curve (AUC). Existing approaches either yield limited improvements in calibration or sacrifice gains in reasoning accuracy. We first prove that this degradation in GRPO-style algorithms stems from their uncertainty-agnostic advantage estimation, which inevitably misaligns optimization gradients with calibration. This leads to improved accuracy at the expense of degraded calibration. We then propose Calibration-Aware Policy Optimization (CAPO). It adopts a logistic AUC surrogate loss that is theoretically consistent and admits regret bound, enabling uncertainty-aware advantage estimation. By further incorporating a noise masking mechanism, CAPO achieves stable learning dynamics that jointly optimize calibration and accuracy. Experiments on multiple mathematical reasoning benchmarks show that CAPO-1.5B significantly improves calibration by up to 15% while achieving accuracy comparable to or better than GRPO, and further boosts accuracy on downstream inference-time scaling tasks by up to 5%. Moreover, when allowed to abstain under low-confidence conditions, CAPO achieves a Pareto-optimal precision-coverage trade-off, highlighting its practical value for hallucination mitigation.

  • 5 authors
·
Apr 13

Fibration Policy Optimization

Large language models are increasingly trained as heterogeneous systems spanning multiple domains, expert partitions, and agentic pipelines, yet prevalent proximal objectives operate at a single scale and lack a principled mechanism for coupling token-level, trajectory-level, and higher-level hierarchical stability control. To bridge this gap, we derive the Aggregational Policy Censoring Objective (APC-Obj), the first exact unconstrained reformulation of sample-based TV-TRPO, establishing that clipping-based surrogate design and trust-region optimization are dual formulations of the same problem. Building on this foundation, we develop Fiber Bundle Gating (FBG), an algebraic framework that organizes sampled RL data as a fiber bundle and decomposes ratio gating into a base-level gate on trajectory aggregates and a fiber-level gate on per-token residuals, with provable first-order agreement with the true RL objective near on-policy. From APC-Obj and FBG we derive Fibration Policy Optimization (or simply, FiberPO), a concrete objective whose Jacobian is block-diagonal over trajectories, reduces to identity at on-policy, and provides better update direction thus improving token efficiency. The compositional nature of the framework extends beyond the trajectory-token case: fibrations compose algebraically into a Fibration Gating Hierarchy (FGH) that scales the same gating mechanism to arbitrary hierarchical depth without new primitives, as demonstrated by FiberPO-Domain, a four-level instantiation with independent trust-region budgets at the domain, prompt group, trajectory, and token levels. Together, these results connect the trust-region theory, a compositional algebraic structure, and practical multi-scale stability control into a unified framework for LLM policy optimization.

  • 5 authors
·
Mar 9

CMP: Cooperative Motion Prediction with Multi-Agent Communication

The confluence of the advancement of Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) and the maturity of Vehicle-to-Everything (V2X) communication has enabled the capability of cooperative connected and automated vehicles (CAVs). Building on top of cooperative perception, this paper explores the feasibility and effectiveness of cooperative motion prediction. Our method, CMP, takes LiDAR signals as model input to enhance tracking and prediction capabilities. Unlike previous work that focuses separately on either cooperative perception or motion prediction, our framework, to the best of our knowledge, is the first to address the unified problem where CAVs share information in both perception and prediction modules. Incorporated into our design is the unique capability to tolerate realistic V2X transmission delays, while dealing with bulky perception representations. We also propose a prediction aggregation module, which unifies the predictions obtained by different CAVs and generates the final prediction. Through extensive experiments and ablation studies on the OPV2V and V2V4Real datasets, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our method in cooperative perception, tracking, and motion prediction. In particular, CMP reduces the average prediction error by 12.3% compared with the strongest baseline. Our work marks a significant step forward in the cooperative capabilities of CAVs, showcasing enhanced performance in complex scenarios. More details can be found on the project website: https://cmp-cooperative-prediction.github.io.

  • 7 authors
·
Mar 26, 2024

One Step is Enough: Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning based on One-Step Policy Optimization for Order Dispatch on Ride-Sharing Platforms

On-demand ride-sharing platforms face the fundamental challenge of dynamically bundling passengers with diverse origins and destinations and matching them with vehicles in real time, all under significant uncertainty. Recently, MARL has emerged as a promising solution for this problem, leveraging decentralized learning to address the curse of dimensionality caused by the large number of agents in the ride-hailing market and the resulting expansive state and action spaces. However, conventional MARL-based ride-sharing approaches heavily rely on the accurate estimation of Q-values or V-values, which becomes problematic in large-scale, highly uncertain environments. Specifically, most of these approaches adopt an independent paradigm, exacerbating this issue, as each agent treats others as part of the environment, leading to unstable training and substantial estimation bias in value functions. To address these challenges, we propose two novel alternative methods that bypass value function estimation. First, we adapt GRPO to ride-sharing, replacing the PPO baseline with the group average reward to eliminate critic estimation errors and reduce training bias. Second, inspired by GRPO's full utilization of group reward information, we customize the PPO framework for ride-sharing platforms and show that, under a homogeneous fleet, the optimal policy can be trained using only one-step rewards - a method we term One-Step Policy Optimization (OSPO). Experiments on a real-world Manhattan ride-hailing dataset demonstrate that both GRPO and OSPO achieve superior performance across most scenarios, efficiently optimizing pickup times and the number of served orders using simple MLP networks.

  • 2 authors
·
Jul 21, 2025

Dynamic-Group-Aware Networks for Multi-Agent Trajectory Prediction with Relational Reasoning

Demystifying the interactions among multiple agents from their past trajectories is fundamental to precise and interpretable trajectory prediction. However, previous works mainly consider static, pair-wise interactions with limited relational reasoning. To promote more comprehensive interaction modeling and relational reasoning, we propose DynGroupNet, a dynamic-group-aware network, which can i) model time-varying interactions in highly dynamic scenes; ii) capture both pair-wise and group-wise interactions; and iii) reason both interaction strength and category without direct supervision. Based on DynGroupNet, we further design a prediction system to forecast socially plausible trajectories with dynamic relational reasoning. The proposed prediction system leverages the Gaussian mixture model, multiple sampling and prediction refinement to promote prediction diversity, training stability and trajectory smoothness, respectively. Extensive experiments show that: 1)DynGroupNet can capture time-varying group behaviors, infer time-varying interaction category and interaction strength during trajectory prediction without any relation supervision on physical simulation datasets; 2)DynGroupNet outperforms the state-of-the-art trajectory prediction methods by a significant improvement of 22.6%/28.0%, 26.9%/34.9%, 5.1%/13.0% in ADE/FDE on the NBA, NFL Football and SDD datasets and achieve the state-of-the-art performance on the ETH-UCY dataset.

  • 6 authors
·
Jun 27, 2022

Partition, Prompt, Aggregate: Statistical Self-Consistency in Language Models

In-context learning is commonly interpreted as a form of conditional inference, in which the prompt specifies a context and the model's output is treated as an estimate of the corresponding conditional distribution. If this interpretation holds, then LLM estimates should satisfy basic probabilistic identities. In particular, the law of total probability asserts that prior-weighted conditional distributions aggregate into population-level marginals over any valid partition of the population. In this work, we investigate to what extent LLM estimates adhere to this self-consistency principle. We use binary trees as an evaluation scaffold to recursively partition a population into increasingly fine-grained subpopulations. We then prompt LLMs with verbalized subpopulation descriptions in context, aggregate the resulting estimates back into population-level estimates, and compare them across partitions of varying granularity. Applying this protocol across problem domains and state-of-the-art frontier models, we show widespread violations of basic consistency properties. An in-depth study of persona prompting reveals a pattern we call the macro fallacy: estimates reconstructed from more fine-grained subpopulation responses are often better aligned with human reference data than direct population-level estimates. This effect persists across variations in tree structure and estimation task, and can be partially recovered through implicit prompting. Together, these findings suggest that models possess relevant subpopulation knowledge but do not reliably propagate it into aggregate estimates. This gap establishes statistical self-consistency as an unsaturated, reference-free criterion for evaluating LLMs.

  • 4 authors
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Jul 15 2

Agentic Forecasting using Sequential Bayesian Updating of Linguistic Beliefs

We present the Bayesian Linguistic Forecaster (BLF), an agentic system for binary forecasting that achieves state-of-the-art performance on the ForecastBench benchmark. The system is built on three ideas. (1) Linguistic belief state: a semi-structured representation combining numerical probability estimates with natural-language evidence summaries, updated by the LLM at each step of an iterative tool-use loop. This contrasts with the common approach of appending all retrieved evidence to an ever-growing, unstructured context. (2) Hierarchical multi-trial aggregation: running K independent trials and combining them using logit-space averaging shrinkage with a data-dependent prior. (3) Hierarchical calibration: Platt scaling with a hierarchical prior, which avoids over-shrinking extreme predictions for sources with skewed base rates. On 400 questions from the ForecastBench leaderboard, BLF outperforms all the top public methods, including Cassi, GPT-5, Grok~4.20, and Foresight-32B. Careful ablation studies, using mixed effects analysis to control for question variability (which accounts for 62\% of the variance in performance), reveals that all 3 components contribute to the overall gains, but some components matter more than others, depending on the base LLM, and the setting (e.g.\ with or without a crowd prior). All our experiments are based on a robust back-testing framework which we develop, which has a leakage rate below 1.5\%, and may be of independent interest.

  • 1 authors
·
May 3

Improving Reasoning for Diffusion Language Models via Group Diffusion Policy Optimization

Diffusion language models (DLMs) enable parallel, order-agnostic generation with iterative refinement, offering a flexible alternative to autoregressive large language models (LLMs). However, adapting reinforcement learning (RL) fine-tuning to DLMs remains an open challenge because of the intractable likelihood. Pioneering work such as diffu-GRPO estimated token-level likelihoods via one-step unmasking. While computationally efficient, this approach is severely biased. A more principled foundation lies in sequence-level likelihoods, where the evidence lower bound (ELBO) serves as a surrogate. Yet, despite this clean mathematical connection, ELBO-based methods have seen limited adoption due to the prohibitive cost of likelihood evaluation. In this work, we revisit ELBO estimation and disentangle its sources of variance. This decomposition motivates reducing variance through fast, deterministic integral approximations along a few pivotal dimensions. Building on this insight, we introduce Group Diffusion Policy Optimization (GDPO), a new RL algorithm tailored for DLMs. GDPO leverages simple yet effective Semi-deterministic Monte Carlo schemes to mitigate the variance explosion of ELBO estimators under vanilla double Monte Carlo sampling, yielding a provably lower-variance estimator under tight evaluation budgets. Empirically, GDPO achieves consistent gains over pretrained checkpoints and outperforms diffu-GRPO, one of the state-of-the-art baselines, on the majority of math, reasoning, and coding benchmarks.

  • 7 authors
·
Oct 9, 2025

Run-Off Election: Improved Provable Defense against Data Poisoning Attacks

In data poisoning attacks, an adversary tries to change a model's prediction by adding, modifying, or removing samples in the training data. Recently, ensemble-based approaches for obtaining provable defenses against data poisoning have been proposed where predictions are done by taking a majority vote across multiple base models. In this work, we show that merely considering the majority vote in ensemble defenses is wasteful as it does not effectively utilize available information in the logits layers of the base models. Instead, we propose Run-Off Election (ROE), a novel aggregation method based on a two-round election across the base models: In the first round, models vote for their preferred class and then a second, Run-Off election is held between the top two classes in the first round. Based on this approach, we propose DPA+ROE and FA+ROE defense methods based on Deep Partition Aggregation (DPA) and Finite Aggregation (FA) approaches from prior work. We evaluate our methods on MNIST, CIFAR-10, and GTSRB and obtain improvements in certified accuracy by up to 3%-4%. Also, by applying ROE on a boosted version of DPA, we gain improvements around 12%-27% comparing to the current state-of-the-art, establishing a new state-of-the-art in (pointwise) certified robustness against data poisoning. In many cases, our approach outperforms the state-of-the-art, even when using 32 times less computational power.

  • 4 authors
·
Feb 4, 2023

R^3: Replay, Reflection, and Ranking Rewards for LLM Reinforcement Learning

Large reasoning models (LRMs) aim to solve diverse and complex problems through structured reasoning. Recent advances in group-based policy optimization methods have shown promise in enabling stable advantage estimation without reliance on process-level annotations. However, these methods rely on advantage gaps induced by high-quality samples within the same batch, which makes the training process fragile and inefficient when intra-group advantages collapse under challenging tasks. To address these problems, we propose a reinforcement learning mechanism named \textbf{R^3} that along three directions: (1) a cross-context \underline{\textbf{R}eplay} strategy that maintains the intra-group advantage by recalling valuable examples from historical trajectories of the same query, (2) an in-context self-\underline{\textbf{R}eflection} mechanism enabling models to refine outputs by leveraging past failures, and (3) a structural entropy \underline{\textbf{R}anking reward}, which assigns relative rewards to truncated or failed samples by ranking responses based on token-level entropy patterns, capturing both local exploration and global stability. We implement our method on Deepseek-R1-Distill-Qwen-1.5B and train it on the DeepscaleR-40k in the math domain. Experiments demonstrate our method achieves SoTA performance on several math benchmarks, representing significant improvements and fewer reasoning tokens over the base models. Code and model will be released.

  • 8 authors
·
Jan 27

GPT4Battery: An LLM-driven Framework for Adaptive State of Health Estimation of Raw Li-ion Batteries

State of health (SOH) is a crucial indicator for assessing the degradation level of batteries that cannot be measured directly but requires estimation. Accurate SOH estimation enhances detection, control, and feedback for Li-ion batteries, allowing for safe and efficient energy management and guiding the development of new-generation batteries. Despite the significant progress in data-driven SOH estimation, the time and resource-consuming degradation experiments for generating lifelong training data pose a challenge in establishing one large model capable of handling diverse types of Li-ion batteries, e.g., cross-chemistry, cross-manufacturer, and cross-capacity. Hence, this paper utilizes the strong generalization capability of large language model (LLM) to proposes a novel framework for adaptable SOH estimation across diverse batteries. To match the real scenario where unlabeled data sequentially arrives in use with distribution shifts, the proposed model is modified by a test-time training technique to ensure estimation accuracy even at the battery's end of life. The validation results demonstrate that the proposed framework achieves state-of-the-art accuracy on four widely recognized datasets collected from 62 batteries. Furthermore, we analyze the theoretical challenges of cross-battery estimation and provide a quantitative explanation of the effectiveness of our method.

  • 3 authors
·
Jan 30, 2024

Real-Time Long Horizon Air Quality Forecasting via Group-Relative Policy Optimization

Accurate long horizon forecasting of particulate matter (PM) concentration fields is essential for operational public health decisions. However, achieving reliable forecasts remains challenging in regions with complex terrain and strong atmospheric dynamics such as East Asia. While foundation models such as Aurora offer global generality, they often miss region-specific dynamics and rely on non-real-time inputs, limiting their practical utility for localized warning systems. To address this gap, we construct and release the real-world observations and high-resolution CMAQ-OBS dataset for East Asia, reducing regional error by 59.5% and enabling real-time 48-120 hour forecasts critical for public health alerts. However, standard point-wise objectives cannot reflect asymmetric operational costs, where false alarms deteriorate public trust while missed severe events endanger populations. This cost mismatch causes SFT models to over-predict and yield high False Alarm Rates. We introduce Group-Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) with class-wise rewards and curriculum rollout to align predictions with operational priorities. Experimental results demonstrate that our framework significantly improves the reliability of the forecast. Compared to the SFT-only baseline, our model reduces the False Alarm Rate by 47.3% while achieving a competitive F1-score, proving its effectiveness for practical, real-world air quality forecasting systems on long lead time scenarios.

  • 10 authors
·
Nov 27, 2025

Achieving Sample and Computational Efficient Reinforcement Learning by Action Space Reduction via Grouping

Reinforcement learning often needs to deal with the exponential growth of states and actions when exploring optimal control in high-dimensional spaces (often known as the curse of dimensionality). In this work, we address this issue by learning the inherent structure of action-wise similar MDP to appropriately balance the performance degradation versus sample/computational complexity. In particular, we partition the action spaces into multiple groups based on the similarity in transition distribution and reward function, and build a linear decomposition model to capture the difference between the intra-group transition kernel and the intra-group rewards. Both our theoretical analysis and experiments reveal a surprising and counter-intuitive result: while a more refined grouping strategy can reduce the approximation error caused by treating actions in the same group as identical, it also leads to increased estimation error when the size of samples or the computation resources is limited. This finding highlights the grouping strategy as a new degree of freedom that can be optimized to minimize the overall performance loss. To address this issue, we formulate a general optimization problem for determining the optimal grouping strategy, which strikes a balance between performance loss and sample/computational complexity. We further propose a computationally efficient method for selecting a nearly-optimal grouping strategy, which maintains its computational complexity independent of the size of the action space.

  • 3 authors
·
Jun 22, 2023

Declarative Outcome-Conformant Synthesis: Exact, Closed-Form Specification Satisfaction and a Conformance Benchmark

We study a capability the dominant paradigm in synthetic tabular data does not provide: exact satisfaction of a declared analytical outcome with no source data. Imitation methods (copulas, GANs, diffusion) learn a real distribution and sample from it, and are judged on fidelity to real data. A large, practical class of needs is different: generating data with no source data ("cold start") that reproduces a declared outcome (a revenue curve, a churn rate, a group share) across a relational schema. Off-the-shelf imitation tools offer no interface for such targets, and no sampler can hit an exact aggregate, because sampling has variance. On a real public dataset, off-the-shelf learned synthesizers trained on that very data miss the declared monthly aggregate by 74 to 86 percent; a per-period steelman cuts the miss to about 19 percent and still cannot reach 0; a closed-form generator reaches exactly 0. We name this task outcome-conformant synthesis, argue its evaluation axis is conformance rather than fidelity, and show the two axes are orthogonal. We contribute: (1) a formal account showing a widely-used family of exact-aggregate generators is exactly conditional-sum sampling of a Gamma population (via Lukacs' characterization), with closed-form exactness, a closed-form marginal CV, and scale-invariance; a controlled experiment maps the boundary, enforcing the exact aggregate costs at most 0.006 in 1-Wasserstein distance to an arbitrary external marginal, the rest being shape-family mismatch; (2) SpecBench, to our knowledge the first benchmark to measure conformance to analytical outcomes for cold-start relational synthesis; and (3) a closed-form, deterministic reference system. Exact aggregation alone is trivial; the contribution is conformance jointly with closed-form marginals, integrity, determinism, and zero source data. We concede fidelity to imitation where real data exists.

  • 1 authors
·
Jun 6

AdaGRPO: A Capability-Aware Adaptive Enhancement for Flow-based GRPO

Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) has demonstrated remarkable success in aligning text-to-image (T2I) flow models with human preferences. However, we have identified that the learning loop of current flow-based GRPO is fundamentally decoupled from the learner's current capability, suffering from critical blind spots at both prompt selection and advantage estimation: (i) Existing methods sample prompts randomly, overlooking the substantial impact of data selection on reinforcement learning (RL) efficacy--a factor proven crucial in GRPO for large language models; (ii) They evaluate sample quality solely relying on intra-group statistics, lacking a global perspective to accurately measure true policy improvement. To address these issues, we propose Adaptive GRPO (AdaGRPO), a novel capability-aware RL algorithm tailored for flow models. Specifically, AdaGRPO consists of two principal components: (i) Online Curriculum Filtering Strategy: Dynamically tracks the model's proficiency and adaptively selects prompts that best match its current learning boundary; (ii) Cross-Level Advantage Fusion: Synergistically integrates fine-grained intra-group advantages with macro-level global advantages, providing a comprehensive and unbiased policy evaluation. As a lightweight, plug-and-play module, AdaGRPO can be seamlessly integrated with existing frameworks such as Flow-GRPO, DanceGRPO, and Flow-CPS. Extensive experiments demonstrate that AdaGRPO consistently drives performance gains while significantly stabilizes GRPO training for flow models.

  • 11 authors
·
Jun 4

GD^2PO: Mitigating Multi-Reward Conflicts via Group-Dynamic reward-Decoupled Policy Optimization

As LLMs advance, post-training reinforcement learning (RL) increasingly relies on multi-dimensional rewards to cultivate comprehensive capabilities. This shift demands new algorithms capable of optimizing diverse and potentially competing objectives simultaneously. To address this, existing methods such as Group reward-Decoupled Policy Optimization (GDPO) decompose the overall score into independent reward groups, then compute the RL loss separately within each group. However, this strategy still encounters multi-reward conflicts: a single rollout can yield positive advantages on certain reward dimensions but negative ones on others, causing opposing signals to cancel each other out during aggregation, further hindering RL training efficiency. Inspired by Dynamic sAmpling Policy Optimization (DAPO), which improves RL training efficiency by filtering out ineffective rollouts with near-zero advantages, we propose Group-Dynamic reward-Decoupled Policy Optimization (GD^2PO). Specifically, GD^2PO employs a conflict-aware filtering mechanism to mask out rollouts suffering from severe reward-wise disagreement. By preventing conflicting signals from canceling each other out, this masking strategy preserves and enhances the magnitude of effective RL advantages, thereby significantly accelerating learning efficiency. Furthermore, we introduce query-level reweighting to dynamically adjust the update intensity of each query based on its overall reward consensus. Experiments on various multi-reward scenarios, including tool calling and human preference alignment, demonstrate that GD^2PO consistently and significantly outperforms existing baselines. The code is available at https://github.com/Qwen-Applications/GD2PO.

  • 14 authors
·
Jun 14 1

Prefix Grouper: Efficient GRPO Training through Shared-Prefix Forward

Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) enhances policy learning by computing gradients from relative comparisons among candidate outputs that share a common input prefix. Despite its effectiveness, GRPO introduces substantial computational overhead when processing long shared prefixes, which must be redundantly encoded for each group member. This inefficiency becomes a major scalability bottleneck in long-context learning scenarios. We propose Prefix Grouper, an efficient GRPO training algorithm that eliminates redundant prefix computation via a Shared-Prefix Forward strategy. In particular, by restructuring self-attention into two parts, our method enables the shared prefix to be encoded only once, while preserving full differentiability and compatibility with end-to-end training. We provide both theoretical and empirical evidence that Prefix Grouper is training-equivalent to standard GRPO: it yields identical forward outputs and backward gradients, ensuring that the optimization dynamics and final policy performance remain unchanged. Empirically, our experiments confirm that Prefix Grouper achieves consistent results while significantly reducing the computational cost of training, particularly in long-prefix scenarios. The proposed method is fully plug-and-play: it is compatible with existing GRPO-based architectures and can be seamlessly integrated into current training pipelines as a drop-in replacement, requiring no structural modifications and only minimal changes to input construction and attention computation. Prefix Grouper enables the use of larger group sizes under the same computational budget, thereby improving the scalability of GRPO to more complex tasks and larger models. Code is now available at https://github.com/johncaged/PrefixGrouper

  • 8 authors
·
Jun 5, 2025 2