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Jul 8

Regimes: An Auditable, Held-Out-Gated Improvement Loop Demonstrated on LongMemEval with ActiveGraph

Autonomous improvement loops are hard to trust because the improvement process is usually external scaffolding bolted onto the agent: failures go unlogged, diagnoses cannot be replayed, and promote-or-discard decisions land in a side database rather than the agent's own history. We show that an event-sourced agent runtime removes that friction and turns controlled improvement into a first-class workflow. When the agent's state is a deterministic projection of an append-only event log, failures are recorded, a run replays exactly from its log, candidate patches scope to typed pipeline seams, gates are auditable, and every promotion or discard is itself an event. We demonstrate this with Regimes, a loop on the ActiveGraph runtime that diagnoses failed evaluations, proposes a repair at a pipeline point, and promotes it only after static checks, sandbox execution, in-sample evaluation, and held-out validation. The loop is target-agnostic: the same control flow runs against different tasks through a common interface. On LongMemEval-S the dominant failure is not retrieval but reconciliation: the evidence is already in the assembled context, yet the reader answers incorrectly. Across five seeded held-out splits, Regimes discovers reader-prompt repairs that improve final held-out accuracy by +0.05 to +0.10 in four splits and +0.01 in one over-promotion split; two splits are individually significant (seed 5 unadjusted for its sequential promotion structure), and the pooled count is descriptive only, since the splits share one 500-question pool. The durable contributions are ActiveGraph as an auditable substrate that makes controlled improvement loops tractable, the held-out-gated loop it supports, the failure-regime taxonomy routing each failure to a pipeline location (whose marginal value over an unrouted baseline is the primary open question), and the prompt-as-discovery-probe hypothesis.

  • 1 authors
·
Jun 7

STARS: Skill-Triggered Audit for Request-Conditioned Invocation Safety in Agent Systems

Autonomous language-model agents increasingly rely on installable skills and tools to complete user tasks. Static skill auditing can expose capability surface before deployment, but it cannot determine whether a particular invocation is unsafe under the current user request and runtime context. We therefore study skill invocation auditing as a continuous-risk estimation problem: given a user request, candidate skill, and runtime context, predict a score that supports ranking and triage before a hard intervention is applied. We introduce STARS, which combines a static capability prior, a request-conditioned invocation risk model, and a calibrated risk-fusion policy. To evaluate this setting, we construct SIA-Bench, a benchmark of 3,000 invocation records with group-safe splits, lineage metadata, runtime context, canonical action labels, and derived continuous-risk targets. On a held-out split of indirect prompt injection attacks, calibrated fusion reaches 0.439 high-risk AUPRC, improving over 0.405 for the contextual scorer and 0.380 for the strongest static baseline, while the contextual scorer remains better calibrated with 0.289 expected calibration error. On the locked in-distribution test split, gains are smaller and static priors remain useful. The resulting claim is therefore narrower: request-conditioned auditing is most valuable as an invocation-time risk-scoring and triage layer rather than as a replacement for static screening. Code is available at https://github.com/123zgj123/STARS.

  • 4 authors
·
Apr 10

ImmigrationQA: A Source-Grounded Dataset and Small-Model Adaptation for U.S. Immigration Law

U.S. immigration law spans thousands of pages of official policy, federal regulations, and procedural guidance that change frequently and carry high stakes for petitioners who lack legal representation. We describe the construction of ImmigrationQA, a source-grounded question-answering dataset of 17,058 pairs across 13 immigration subdomains, and the fine-tuning of a Llama 3.2 3B Instruct model on that dataset using parameter-efficient LoRA. The corpus was assembled from 11 primary and secondary sources -- including the USCIS Policy Manual, 8 CFR, BIA precedent decisions, and community Q&A -- yielding 10,056 validated canonical documents and 18,308 text chunks. Structured QA pairs were generated from these chunks using Claude Sonnet 4.6 via five mode-specific prompts, with 22 pairs rejected for insufficient source-span overlap. The fine-tuned model was evaluated against a held-out split of 993 pairs using LLM-as-judge scoring on a 101-example stratified sample. The fine-tuned model scored a mean of 1.08/3.0 (16.8% fully correct; 101-example stratified eval) versus the Llama 3 8B base model at 0.85/3.0 (4% fully correct), a relative improvement of 27% in mean score; a zero-shot Claude Sonnet baseline scored 1.52/3.0 (25% fully correct). The fine-tuned model shows concentrated improvement in procedural subdomains (travel documents, adjustment of status, nonimmigrant visas) while remaining weak on complex legal reasoning and time-sensitive statistics. The full pipeline ran for approximately $29 in cloud compute. All artifacts -- dataset, model, code, and prompt templates -- are publicly released. The system is not a substitute for legal counsel and does not reflect regulatory changes after the corpus crawl date.

  • 1 authors
·
May 27

SWITCH: Benchmarking Modeling and Handling of Tangible Interfaces in Long-horizon Embodied Scenarios

Autonomous intelligence requires not only perception and reasoning, but critically, effective interaction with the existing world and its infrastructure. Everyday environments are rich in tangible control interfaces (TCIs), e.g., light switches, appliance panels, and embedded GUIs, that demand commonsense and physics reasoning, but also causal prediction and outcome verification in time and space (e.g., delayed heating, remote lights). Moreover, failures here have potential safety implications, yet current benchmarks rarely test grounding, partial observability (video), or post-hoc verification in situated settings. We introduce SWITCH (Semantic World Interface Tasks for Control and Handling), an embodied, task-driven benchmark created through iterative releases to probe these gaps. Its first iteration, SWITCH-Basic, evaluates five complementary abilities:task-aware VQA, semantic UI grounding, action generation, state-transition prediction, and result verification, under egocentric RGB video input and device diversity. Across 351 tasks spanning 98 real devices and appliances, commercial and open LMMMs exhibit inconsistent performance even on single-step interactions, often over-relying on textual cues and under-using visual or video evidence (and high aggregate scores can mask such failures). SWITCH provides data, code, and held-out splits to enable reproducible evaluation and community contributions toward more challenging future iterations of the benchmark and the creation of training datasets. Benchmark resources are available at: https://github.com/BAAI-Agents/SWITCH.

From Off-Policy to On-Policy: Enhancing GUI Agents via Bi-level Expert-to-Policy Assimilation

Vision-language models are increasingly deployed as computer-use agents (CUAs) that operate desktops and browsers. Top-performing CUAs are framework-based systems that decompose planning and execution, while end-to-end screenshot-to-action policies are easier to deploy but lag behind on benchmarks such as OSWorld-Verified. GUI datasets like OSWorld pose two bottlenecks: they expose only a few hundred interactive, verifiable tasks and environments, and expert trajectories must be gathered by interacting with these environments, making such data hard to scale. We therefore ask how reinforcement learning from verifiable rewards (RLVR) can best exploit a small pool of exist expert trajectories to train end-to-end policies. Naively mixing these off-policy traces into on-policy RLVR is brittle: even after format conversion, expert trajectories exhibit structural mismatch and distribution shift from the learner. We propose BEPA (Bi-Level Expert-to-Policy Assimilation), which turns static expert traces into policy-aligned guidance via self-rolled reachable trajectories under the base policy (LEVEL-1) and a per-task, dynamically updated cache used in RLVR (LEVEL-2). On OSWorld-Verified, BEPA improves UITARS1.5-7B success from 22.87% to 32.13% and raises a held-out split from 5.74% to 10.30%, with consistent gains on MMBench-GUI and Online-Mind2Web. Our code and data are available at: https://github.com/LEON-gittech/Verl_GUI.git

  • 5 authors
·
Jan 9

The Granularity Axis: A Micro-to-Macro Latent Direction for Social Roles in Language Models

Large language models (LLMs) are routinely prompted to take on social roles ranging from individuals to institutions, yet it remains unclear whether their internal representations encode the granularity of such roles, from micro-level individual experience to macro-level organizational, institutional, or national reasoning. We show that they do. We define a contrast-based Granularity Axis as the difference between mean macro- and micro-role hidden states. In Qwen3-8B, this axis aligns with the principal axis (PC1) of the role representation space at cosine 0.972 and accounts for 52.6% of its variance, indicating that granularity is the dominant geometric axis organizing prompted social roles. We construct 75 social roles across five granularity levels and collect 91,200 role-conditioned responses over shared questions and prompt variants, then extract role-level hidden states and project them onto the axis. Role projections increase monotonically across all five levels, remain stable across layers, prompt variants, endpoint definitions, held-out splits, and score-filtered subsets, and transfer to Llama-3.1-8B-Instruct. The axis is also causally relevant: activation steering along it shifts response granularity in the predicted direction, with Llama moving from 2.00 to 3.17 on a five-point macro scale under positive steering on prompts that admit local responses. The two models differ in controllability, suggesting that steering depends on each model's default operating regime. Overall, our findings suggest that social role granularity is not merely a stylistic surface feature, but a structured, ordered, and causally manipulable latent direction in role-conditioned language model behavior.

Fine-Tuning Over Architectural Complexity: Broad-Coverage PII Detection on PIIBench with DeBERTa

Personally identifiable information (PII) detection systems are frequently trained within narrow source or domain boundaries, limiting coverage when deployed on heterogeneous text. We study model fine-tuning on a corrected multi-source PIIBench preparation spanning 82 retained entity types across ten source datasets. We evaluate three DeBERTa-based approaches: direct token classification fine-tuning, a source-conditioned hierarchical model (SC+H), and a three-phase curriculum extension (SC+H+Curr). Against eight published comparator systems on a reproducible 5,000-record held-out subset (test_5k), direct fine-tuned DeBERTa achieves F1 0.6476, while SC+H and the curriculum variant achieve 0.5899 and 0.2772 respectively; the strongest published comparator reaches only 0.1723. Because validation initially favoured SC+H, we perform a final streamed evaluation on the complete 100,002-record held-out split. Direct fine-tuning remains superior, achieving F1 0.6455 versus 0.5894 for SC+H. Entity-level analysis shows that direct fine tuning wins 54 of 82 fine entity types and all ten coarse groups by support-weighted entity F1, while SC+H retains localised advantages on 28 types. The results indicate that diverse task-specific training data and a simple weighted cross-entropy objective contribute more to broad-coverage PII detection than the tested architectural and curriculum complexity.

  • 1 authors
·
May 24

How Far Can You Get Without a GPU? A Systematic Benchmark of Lightweight Hallucination Detection Across Question Answering, Dialogue, and Summarisation

Hallucination detection has become a pressing requirement for trustworthy AI deployment at scale. The most accurate detection methods depend on GPU-intensive inference, proprietary API calls, or white-box access to the generating model. This puts them out of reach for resource-constrained researchers and practitioners. In this paper, we explore a practical alternative: how well can hallucination detection perform using only lightweight, CPU-feasible methods built on publicly available models? We systematically benchmark five such methods: ROUGE-L, semantic similarity, BERTScore, a Natural Language Inference (NLI) detector based on a FEVER-trained DeBERTa model, and a score-level ensemble of similarity and NLI. We evaluate them across all three tasks of the HaluEval benchmark: question answering (QA), dialogue, and summarisation. We calibrate each method on a held-out validation split and evaluate it on 2,000 test instances per task. We find that no single method dominates and performance is highly task-dependent. The ensemble performs best on QA (F1 = 0.792, AUC-ROC = 0.873), the NLI detector leads on dialogue (AUC-ROC = 0.713), and all five methods degrade to near-random performance on summarisation (AUC-ROC between 0.469 and 0.574). This task-dependence and the systematic failure on summarisation map the practical frontier of GPU-free hallucination detection. They give practical guidance for method selection under computational constraints. All experiments run on a standard laptop CPU using public models.

  • 2 authors
·
Jun 28

AgentFairBench: Do LLM Agents Discriminate When They Act?

Large language model (LLM) agents increasingly take actions (screening applicants, recommending credit, triaging patients), yet fairness for LLMs is still measured by grading answers. We introduce AgentFairBench, a cheap, reproducible, multi-domain benchmark for demographic disparity in the actions of LLM agents. Grounded in a companion framework, the Bias Conduction Framework (BCF, restated here), it spans three regulator-anchored domains: hiring, lending, and medical triage. Synthetic, demographic-neutral profiles are evaluated in counterfactual matched sets that vary only a name-coded race x gender signal (in the Bertrand Mullainathan tradition), under four agent scaffolds of increasing agency (direct, chain-of-thought, multi-agent deliberation, tool-augmented). A NumPy-only harness computes counterfactual flip rate, mean absolute score difference (MASD), action-rate disparity, and tool-invocation disparity, with bootstrap confidence intervals, paired tests, and false-discovery-rate control, for single-digit dollars per model. A live leaderboard with a held-out private split and a contamination canary admits external models by submission. Our pilot (864 decisions plus a test-retest replication) carries a methodological lesson: comparing a six-group score spread against a two-run noise difference overstates disparity by ~ 2.4X through statistic arity alone. Against an arity matched noise floor and an omnibus group test, claude haiku 4 5 shows no demographic effect above sampling noise (0 of 120 pairwise and 0 of 9 omnibus contrasts survive correction); a planted-bias test confirms the instrument detects disparity when present. The contribution is a sound, sensitive, adoption-ready instrument, the arity matched null methodology, and open artifacts to scale it. Code, data, and harness are released under open licenses, with an anonymized review artifact.

  • 4 authors
·
Jun 14

CoMix: A Comprehensive Benchmark for Multi-Task Comic Understanding

The comic domain is rapidly advancing with the development of single-page analysis and synthesis models. However, evaluation metrics and datasets lag behind, often limited to small-scale or single-style test sets. We introduce a novel benchmark, CoMix, designed to evaluate the multi-task capabilities of models in comic analysis. Unlike existing benchmarks that focus on isolated tasks such as object detection or text recognition, CoMix addresses a broader range of tasks including object detection, speaker identification, character re-identification, reading order, and multi-modal reasoning tasks like character naming and dialogue generation. Our benchmark comprises three existing datasets with expanded annotations to support multi-task evaluation. To mitigate the over-representation of manga-style data, we have incorporated a new dataset of carefully selected American comic-style books, thereby enriching the diversity of comic styles. CoMix is designed to assess pre-trained models in zero-shot and limited fine-tuning settings, probing their transfer capabilities across different comic styles and tasks. The validation split of the benchmark is publicly available for research purposes, and an evaluation server for the held-out test split is also provided. Comparative results between human performance and state-of-the-art models reveal a significant performance gap, highlighting substantial opportunities for advancements in comic understanding. The dataset, baseline models, and code are accessible at the repository link. This initiative sets a new standard for comprehensive comic analysis, providing the community with a common benchmark for evaluation on a large and varied set.

  • 3 authors
·
Jul 3, 2024

Perception Test: A Diagnostic Benchmark for Multimodal Video Models

We propose a novel multimodal video benchmark - the Perception Test - to evaluate the perception and reasoning skills of pre-trained multimodal models (e.g. Flamingo, BEiT-3, or GPT-4). Compared to existing benchmarks that focus on computational tasks (e.g. classification, detection or tracking), the Perception Test focuses on skills (Memory, Abstraction, Physics, Semantics) and types of reasoning (descriptive, explanatory, predictive, counterfactual) across video, audio, and text modalities, to provide a comprehensive and efficient evaluation tool. The benchmark probes pre-trained models for their transfer capabilities, in a zero-shot / few-shot or limited finetuning regime. For these purposes, the Perception Test introduces 11.6k real-world videos, 23s average length, designed to show perceptually interesting situations, filmed by around 100 participants worldwide. The videos are densely annotated with six types of labels (multiple-choice and grounded video question-answers, object and point tracks, temporal action and sound segments), enabling both language and non-language evaluations. The fine-tuning and validation splits of the benchmark are publicly available (CC-BY license), in addition to a challenge server with a held-out test split. Human baseline results compared to state-of-the-art video QA models show a significant gap in performance (91.4% vs 43.6%), suggesting that there is significant room for improvement in multimodal video understanding. Dataset, baselines code, and challenge server are available at https://github.com/deepmind/perception_test

  • 24 authors
·
May 23, 2023

ILION: Deterministic Pre-Execution Safety Gates for Agentic AI Systems

The proliferation of autonomous AI agents capable of executing real-world actions - filesystem operations, API calls, database modifications, financial transactions - introduces a class of safety risk not addressed by existing content-moderation infrastructure. Current text-safety systems evaluate linguistic content for harm categories such as violence, hate speech, and sexual content; they are architecturally unsuitable for evaluating whether a proposed action falls within an agent's authorized operational scope. We present ILION (Intelligent Logic Identity Operations Network), a deterministic execution gate for agentic AI systems. ILION employs a five-component cascade architecture - Transient Identity Imprint (TII), Semantic Vector Reference Frame (SVRF), Identity Drift Control (IDC), Identity Resonance Score (IRS) and Consensus Veto Layer (CVL) - to classify proposed agent actions as BLOCK or ALLOW without statistical training or API dependencies. The system requires zero labeled data, operates in sub-millisecond latency, and produces fully interpretable verdicts. We evaluate ILION on ILION-Bench v2, a purpose-built benchmark of 380 test scenarios across eight attack categories with 39% hard-difficulty adversarial cases and a held-out development split. ILION achieves F1 = 0.8515, precision = 91.0%, and a false positive rate of 7.9% at a mean latency of 143 microseconds. Comparative evaluation against three baselines - Lakera Guard (F1 = 0.8087), OpenAI Moderation API (F1 = 0.1188), and Llama Guard 3 (F1 = 0.0105) - demonstrates that existing text-safety infrastructure systematically fails on agent execution safety tasks due to a fundamental task mismatch. ILION outperforms the best commercial baseline by 4.3 F1 points while operating 2,000 times faster with a false positive rate four times lower.

  • 1 authors
·
Feb 22

Revisiting DAgger in the Era of LLM-Agents

Long-horizon LM agents learn from multi-turn interaction, where a single early mistake can alter the subsequent state distribution and derail the whole trajectory. Existing recipes fall short in complementary ways: supervised fine-tuning provides dense teacher supervision but suffers from covariate shift because it is trained on off-policy teacher trajectories; while reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards avoids this off-policy mismatch by learning from on-policy rollouts but with only sparse outcome feedback. We address this dilemma by revisiting Dataset Aggregation (DAgger) for multi-turn LM agents: the algorithm collects trajectories through a turn-level interpolation of student and teacher policies, and the student is then trained on these trajectories using supervised labels provided by the teacher. By directly interacting with environments, we expose the model to realistic states likely to be encountered during deployment, thereby effectively mitigating covariate shift. Besides, since the student is learned by mimicking the teacher's behavior, it receives rich feedback during learning. To demonstrate DAgger enjoys the benefits of both worlds, we tested the algorithm to train a software-engineering agent with 4B- and 8B-scale student models. On SWE-bench Verified, our DAgger-style training improves over the strongest post-training baseline by +3.9 points at 4B and +3.6 points at 8B. The resulting 4B agent reaches 27.3%, outperforming representative published 8B SWE-agent systems, while the 8B agent achieves 29.8%, surpassing SWE-Gym-32B and coming within 5 points of stronger 32B-scale agents. Together with consistent gains on the held-out SWE-Gym split, these results suggest the effectiveness of DAgger for modern long-horizon LM agents.

Can Models Learn Skill Composition from Examples?

As large language models (LLMs) become increasingly advanced, their ability to exhibit compositional generalization -- the capacity to combine learned skills in novel ways not encountered during training -- has garnered significant attention. This type of generalization, particularly in scenarios beyond training data, is also of great interest in the study of AI safety and alignment. A recent study introduced the SKILL-MIX evaluation, where models are tasked with composing a short paragraph demonstrating the use of a specified k-tuple of language skills. While small models struggled with composing even with k=3, larger models like GPT-4 performed reasonably well with k=5 and 6. In this paper, we employ a setup akin to SKILL-MIX to evaluate the capacity of smaller models to learn compositional generalization from examples. Utilizing a diverse set of language skills -- including rhetorical, literary, reasoning, theory of mind, and common sense -- GPT-4 was used to generate text samples that exhibit random subsets of k skills. Subsequent fine-tuning of 7B and 13B parameter models on these combined skill texts, for increasing values of k, revealed the following findings: (1) Training on combinations of k=2 and 3 skills results in noticeable improvements in the ability to compose texts with k=4 and 5 skills, despite models never having seen such examples during training. (2) When skill categories are split into training and held-out groups, models significantly improve at composing texts with held-out skills during testing despite having only seen training skills during fine-tuning, illustrating the efficacy of the training approach even with previously unseen skills. This study also suggests that incorporating skill-rich (potentially synthetic) text into training can substantially enhance the compositional capabilities of models.

  • 5 authors
·
Sep 29, 2024 2

MacrOData: New Benchmarks of Thousands of Datasets for Tabular Outlier Detection

Quality benchmarks are essential for fairly and accurately tracking scientific progress and enabling practitioners to make informed methodological choices. Outlier detection (OD) on tabular data underpins numerous real-world applications, yet existing OD benchmarks remain limited. The prominent OD benchmark AdBench is the de facto standard in the literature, yet comprises only 57 datasets. In addition to other shortcomings discussed in this work, its small scale severely restricts diversity and statistical power. We introduce MacrOData, a large-scale benchmark suite for tabular OD comprising three carefully curated components: OddBench, with 790 datasets containing real-world semantic anomalies; OvrBench, with 856 datasets featuring real-world statistical outliers; and SynBench, with 800 synthetically generated datasets spanning diverse data priors and outlier archetypes. Owing to its scale and diversity, MacrOData enables comprehensive and statistically robust evaluation of tabular OD methods. Our benchmarks further satisfy several key desiderata: We provide standardized train/test splits for all datasets, public/private benchmark partitions with held-out test labels for the latter reserved toward an online leaderboard, and annotate our datasets with semantic metadata. We conduct extensive experiments across all benchmarks, evaluating a broad range of OD methods comprising classical, deep, and foundation models, over diverse hyperparameter configurations. We report detailed empirical findings, practical guidelines, as well as individual performances as references for future research. All benchmarks containing 2,446 datasets combined are open-sourced, along with a publicly accessible leaderboard hosted at https://huggingface.co/MacrOData-CMU.

  • 5 authors
·
Feb 9

A Reproducible Universal Dependencies-Style Pipeline for Katharevousa Greek Parliamentary Text

Katharevousa Greek remains poorly served by contemporary NLP pipelines despite its importance for legal, administrative, and parliamentary archives. We present a reproducible workflow for building and evaluating a Universal Dependencies-style parsing resource for Katharevousa parliamentary questions from Greece's early post-junta period. The pipeline links OCR-aware reconstruction, schema-constrained LLM-assisted annotation, automatic validation, deterministic CoNLL-U snapshotting, fixed-split evaluation, and model-family comparison. The frozen automatically validated reference set contains 1{,}697 sentences, split into 1{,}357 training sentences and 340 held-out test sentences. We compare off-the-shelf Greek and Ancient Greek parsers, a feature-based parser, mBERT, XLM-R, and custom Stanza training under the same scoring protocol. Off-the-shelf systems show substantial register mismatch: the strongest external baseline, spaCy Greek, reaches 0.4183 LAS. The best structural parser, an XLM-R model, reaches 0.8893 UPOS accuracy, 0.7250 dependency-relation F1, 0.6098 UAS, and 0.5162 LAS, an absolute LAS gain of 0.0980 over the best external baseline. The feature-based model remains competitive for UPOS and relation labeling, indicating that transparent lexical-context features still matter at this data scale. Beyond scores, the paper contributes an auditable methodology for turning difficult historical parliamentary OCR into reusable syntactic NLP infrastructure. The entire pipeline -- code, schema, frozen reference annotations, fixed train/test split, and per-model benchmark reports -- is released as an open-access companion to this paper.

  • 2 authors
·
May 21

A Verifiable Search Is Not a Learnable Chain-of-Thought

It is tempting to assume any task solvable by a short program can be taught to a model as its chain-of-thought: write the steps out, fine-tune, and the model follows. This paper shows the assumption fails for an identifiable class of procedures. The testbed is nine reasoning tasks, each from a deterministic generator; public and hidden splits share generators, so held-out data proxies test accuracy. I reverse-engineer the generators into Python solvers, render them as chain-of-thought, and distill into a rank-<= 32 LoRA over a 30B (3.5B-active) Nemotron model. Forward-computable tasks install readily: lookup/arithmetic and an 8-bit boolean task transfer (>= 0.99 and 0.68). Cryptarithm does not: distilling its backtracking search holds at 0.01-0.07 across eleven chain-of-thought designs, RL from verifiable rewards, and self-training, even though a search solver answers 71% of instances. This is not a capability gap. The model does the arithmetic on 97-100% of lines and ranks the correct cipher in its top eight on 71%; it cannot carry the search forward as a left-to-right derivation. Fine-tuning learns the shape of a verifiable elimination step while its verdicts become unconditional templates, correct only 16-57% of the time ("verdict-as-token"). The ceiling holds across backbones from 3B to 671B and across fine-tuning and prompting; a controlled intervention isolates the cause: revealing the cipher key, which turns the derivation forward, lifts the same instances from 0.03 to 0.57. When a procedure's only solution is search over information-free structure, no faithful forward chain-of-thought exists to imitate. The task becomes learnable only by removing the search, precomputing its combinatorial core into a catalog and reducing the trace to recall plus verification; the 1st-place solution reaches Private LB 0.92 this way. What distills is memorization and verification, not search.

  • 1 authors
·
Jun 19 1

TwinRouterBench: Fast Static and Live Dynamic Evaluation for Realistic Agentic LLM Routing

LLM routing matters most in long-horizon applications such as coding agents, deep research systems, and computer-use agents, where a single user request triggers many model calls. Routing each call to the cheapest sufficient model can cut costs without sacrificing quality, yet existing router benchmarks evaluate routers only on one-shot prompts. They never expose the router-visible prefix at an intermediate agent step, never test whether a cheaper replacement preserves downstream task success, and often rely on online LLM judges at evaluation time. We introduce TwinRouterBench, a step-level routing benchmark with two tracks. The static track provides 970 router-visible prefixes from 520 instances across SWE-bench, BFCL, mtRAG, QMSum, and PinchBench, each paired with an execution-verified target tier estimated under a released downgrade-and-cascade protocol; scoring is deterministic arithmetic over tier labels, trajectory membership, and token costs, with no online evaluator-side LLM judge. The dynamic track supplies a harness that runs routers on the full 500-case SWE-bench Verified suite; in this paper we report a 100-case held-out evaluation disjoint from the static SWE supervision split. At each LLM call the router selects a concrete model from a locked pool, and success is measured by official task resolution and realized API spend. The two tracks support fast offline iteration followed by end-to-end validation under live agent execution. Code and data are available at https://github.com/CommonstackAI/TwinRouterBench.

  • 17 authors
·
May 13

Resolution-Aware Perpetual Futures on Binary Prediction Markets: An Empirical Risk-Design Framework Using Polymarket Data

We develop and counterfactually evaluate a resolution-aware risk-design framework (PIRAP) for perpetual futures whose underlying tracks a single binary prediction-market probability through resolution. The framework specifies six components: an index estimator combining mid-price, depth-weighted mid, and time-decayed VWAP; jump-aware tiered margin sized against bounded-event terminal-collapse magnitude; leverage compression schedule contracting toward resolution; resolution-aware funding rule with boundary-aware correction; a multi-stage halt protocol; and an eligibility framework. Two formal non-portability propositions establish that standard basis-only funding paired with continuous-vol static margin fails on bounded-event underlyings. Empirical evaluation uses Polymarket's PMXT v2 archive for 2026-04-21 to 2026-04-27 (13,298-market analysis sample passing adequacy gates from 61,087 ingested; 13,115 resolved within the empirical window for E3). E1 evaluates two pre-registered stylized facts; E2 conducts counterfactual replay across three engine configurations; E3 isolates the resolution-zone protocol's contribution. Results are mixed. Five pre-registered floors: stylized-fact floors (boundary depth asymmetry, terminal-jump magnitude) PASS; welfare-side directional floors (final-hour liquidation -6%, drawdown -5.1% pooled, median PnL +14%) two FAIL one PASS; E3 mechanic floors (final-hour liquidation -80% by halt construction PASS; bad-debt frequency +2.4% FAIL). Three of five materiality floors fail: the framework as specified does not validate deployment, but the empirical record establishes a halt-versus-margin scope distinction (halt addresses execution-channel risk; terminal-jump bad-debt remains margin-side) and documents a pre-emption trade-off constraining the dynamic-margin component. The paper concludes with structural recommendations and explicit non-deployable status.

  • 1 authors
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May 10