Daily Papers

As the academic landscape expands, the challenge of efficiently identifying potentially high-impact articles among the vast number of newly published works becomes critical. This paper introduces a promising approach, leveraging the capabilities of fine-tuned LLMs to predict the future impact of newborn articles solely based on titles and abstracts. Moving beyond traditional methods heavily reliant on external information, the proposed method discerns the shared semantic features of highly impactful papers from a large collection of title-abstract and potential impact pairs. These semantic features are further utilized to regress an improved metric, TNCSI_SP, which has been endowed with value, field, and time normalization properties. Additionally, a comprehensive dataset has been constructed and released for fine-tuning the LLM, containing over 12,000 entries with corresponding titles, abstracts, and TNCSI_SP. The quantitative results, with an NDCG@20 of 0.901, demonstrate that the proposed approach achieves state-of-the-art performance in predicting the impact of newborn articles when compared to competitive counterparts. Finally, we demonstrate a real-world application for predicting the impact of newborn journal articles to demonstrate its noteworthy practical value. Overall, our findings challenge existing paradigms and propose a shift towards a more content-focused prediction of academic impact, offering new insights for assessing newborn article impact.

Accurate prediction of protein-ligand binding affinities is crucial in drug discovery, particularly during hit-to-lead and lead optimization phases, however, limitations in ligand force fields continue to impact prediction accuracy. In this work, we validate relative binding free energy (RBFE) accuracy using neural network potentials (NNPs) for the ligands. We utilize a novel NNP model, AceForce 1.0, based on the TensorNet architecture for small molecules that broadens the applicability to diverse drug-like compounds, including all important chemical elements and supporting charged molecules. Using established benchmarks, we show overall improved accuracy and correlation in binding affinity predictions compared with GAFF2 for molecular mechanics and ANI2-x for NNPs. Slightly less accuracy but comparable correlations with OPLS4. We also show that we can run the NNP simulations at 2 fs timestep, at least two times larger than previous NNP models, providing significant speed gains. The results show promise for further evolutions of free energy calculations using NNPs while demonstrating its practical use already with the current generation. The code and NNP model are publicly available for research use.

Can AI systems trained on the scientific record up to a fixed point in time forecast the scientific advances that follow? Such a capability could help researchers identify collaborators and impactful research directions, and anticipate which problems and methods will become central next. We introduce PreScience -- a scientific forecasting benchmark that decomposes the research process into four interdependent generative tasks: collaborator prediction, prior work selection, contribution generation, and impact prediction. PreScience is a carefully curated dataset of 98K recent AI-related research papers, featuring disambiguated author identities, temporally aligned scholarly metadata, and a structured graph of companion author publication histories and citations spanning 502K total papers. We develop baselines and evaluations for each task, including LACERScore, a novel LLM-based measure of contribution similarity that outperforms previous metrics and approximates inter-annotator agreement. We find substantial headroom remains in each task -- e.g. in contribution generation, frontier LLMs achieve only moderate similarity to the ground-truth (GPT-5, averages 5.6 on a 1-10 scale). When composed into a 12-month end-to-end simulation of scientific production, the resulting synthetic corpus is systematically less diverse and less novel than human-authored research from the same period.

Prior work has analyzed the robustness of visual encoders to image transformations and corruptions, particularly in cases where such alterations are not seen during training. When this occurs, they introduce a form of distribution shift at test time, often leading to performance degradation. The primary focus has been on severe corruptions that, when applied aggressively, distort useful signals necessary for accurate semantic predictions. We take a different perspective by analyzing parameters of the image acquisition process and transformations that may be subtle or even imperceptible to the human eye. We find that such parameters are systematically encoded in the learned visual representations and can be easily recovered. More strikingly, their presence can have a profound impact, either positively or negatively, on semantic predictions. This effect depends on whether there is a strong correlation or anti-correlation between semantic labels and these acquisition-based or processing-based labels. Our code and data are available at: https://github.com/ryan-caesar-ramos/visual-encoder-traces

Transformer-based models generate hidden states that are difficult to interpret. In this work, we analyze hidden states and modify them at inference, with a focus on motion forecasting. We use linear probing to analyze whether interpretable features are embedded in hidden states. Our experiments reveal high probing accuracy, indicating latent space regularities with functionally important directions. Building on this, we use the directions between hidden states with opposing features to fit control vectors. At inference, we add our control vectors to hidden states and evaluate their impact on predictions. Remarkably, such modifications preserve the feasibility of predictions. We further refine our control vectors using sparse autoencoders (SAEs). This leads to more linear changes in predictions when scaling control vectors. Our approach enables mechanistic interpretation as well as zero-shot generalization to unseen dataset characteristics with negligible computational overhead.

Modular deep learning has been proposed for the efficient adaption of pre-trained models to new tasks, domains and languages. In particular, combining language adapters with task adapters has shown potential where no supervised data exists for a language. In this paper, we explore the role of language adapters in zero-shot cross-lingual transfer for natural language understanding (NLU) benchmarks. We study the effect of including a target-language adapter in detailed ablation studies with two multilingual models and three multilingual datasets. Our results show that the effect of target-language adapters is highly inconsistent across tasks, languages and models. Retaining the source-language adapter instead often leads to an equivalent, and sometimes to a better, performance. Removing the language adapter after training has only a weak negative effect, indicating that the language adapters do not have a strong impact on the predictions.

We study the fractal structure of language, aiming to provide a precise formalism for quantifying properties that may have been previously suspected but not formally shown. We establish that language is: (1) self-similar, exhibiting complexities at all levels of granularity, with no particular characteristic context length, and (2) long-range dependent (LRD), with a Hurst parameter of approximately H=0.70. Based on these findings, we argue that short-term patterns/dependencies in language, such as in paragraphs, mirror the patterns/dependencies over larger scopes, like entire documents. This may shed some light on how next-token prediction can lead to a comprehension of the structure of text at multiple levels of granularity, from words and clauses to broader contexts and intents. We also demonstrate that fractal parameters improve upon perplexity-based bits-per-byte (BPB) in predicting downstream performance. We hope these findings offer a fresh perspective on language and the mechanisms underlying the success of LLMs.

Modern Code Review (MCR) is an informal tool-assisted quality assurance practice. It relies on the asynchronous communication among the authors of code changes and reviewers, who are developers that provide feedback. However, from candidate developers, some are able to provide better feedback than others given a particular context. The selection of reviewers is thus an important task, which can benefit from automated support. Many approaches have been proposed in this direction, using for example data from code review repositories to recommend reviewers. In this paper, we propose the use of team-related features to improve the performance of predictions that are helpful to build code reviewer recommenders, with our target predictions being the identification of reviewers that would participate in a review and the provided amount of feedback. We evaluate the prediction power of these features, which are related to code ownership, workload, and team relationship. This evaluation was done by carefully addressing challenges imposed by the MCR domain, such as temporal aspects of the dataset and unbalanced classes. Moreover, given that it is currently unknown how much past data is needed for building MCR prediction models with acceptable performance, we explore the amount of past data used to build prediction models. Our results show that, individually, features related to code ownership have the best prediction power. However, based on feature selection, we conclude that all proposed features together with lines of code can make the best predictions for both reviewer participation and amount of feedback. Regarding the amount of past data, the timeframes of 3, 6, 9, and 12 months of data produce similar results. Therefore, models can be trained considering short timeframes, thus reducing the computational costs with negligible impact in the prediction performance ...

Molecular property prediction has gained significant attention due to its transformative potential in multiple scientific disciplines. Conventionally, a molecule graph can be represented either as a graph-structured data or a SMILES text. Recently, the rapid development of Large Language Models (LLMs) has revolutionized the field of NLP. Although it is natural to utilize LLMs to assist in understanding molecules represented by SMILES, the exploration of how LLMs will impact molecular property prediction is still in its early stage. In this work, we advance towards this objective through two perspectives: zero/few-shot molecular classification, and using the new explanations generated by LLMs as representations of molecules. To be specific, we first prompt LLMs to do in-context molecular classification and evaluate their performance. After that, we employ LLMs to generate semantically enriched explanations for the original SMILES and then leverage that to fine-tune a small-scale LM model for multiple downstream tasks. The experimental results highlight the superiority of text explanations as molecular representations across multiple benchmark datasets, and confirm the immense potential of LLMs in molecular property prediction tasks. Codes are available at https://github.com/ChnQ/LLM4Mol.

Explaining predictions based on multivariate time series data carries the additional difficulty of handling not only multiple features, but also time dependencies. It matters not only what happened, but also when, and the same feature could have a very different impact on a prediction depending on this time information. Previous work has used perturbation-based saliency methods to tackle this issue, perturbing an input using a trainable mask to discover which features at which times are driving the predictions. However these methods introduce fixed perturbations, inspired from similar methods on static data, while there seems to be little motivation to do so on temporal data. In this work, we aim to explain predictions by learning not only masks, but also associated perturbations. We empirically show that learning these perturbations significantly improves the quality of these explanations on time series data.

Semi-supervised semantic segmentation (SSSS) aims to improve segmentation performance by utilising unlabeled data alongside limited labeled samples. Existing SSSS methods often face challenges such as coupling, where over-reliance on initial labeled data leads to suboptimal learning; confirmation bias, where incorrect predictions reinforce themselves repeatedly; and boundary blur caused by insufficient boundary-awareness and ambiguous edge information. To address these issues, we propose CW-BASS, a novel framework for SSSS. In order to mitigate the impact of incorrect predictions, we assign confidence weights to pseudo-labels. Additionally, we leverage boundary-delineation techniques, which, despite being extensively explored in weakly-supervised semantic segmentation (WSSS) remain under-explored in SSSS. Specifically, our approach: (1) reduces coupling through a confidence-weighted loss function that adjusts the influence of pseudo-labels based on their predicted confidence scores, (2) mitigates confirmation bias with a dynamic thresholding mechanism that learns to filter out pseudo-labels based on model performance, (3) resolves boundary blur with a boundary-aware module that enhances segmentation accuracy near object boundaries, and (4) reduces label noise with a confidence decay strategy that progressively refines pseudo-labels during training. Extensive experiments on the Pascal VOC 2012 and Cityscapes demonstrate that our method achieves state-of-the-art performance. Moreover, using only 1/8 or 12.5\% of labeled data, our method achieves a mIoU of 75.81 on Pascal VOC 2012, highlighting its effectiveness in limited-label settings.

For nearly a decade the academic community has investigated backdoors in neural networks, primarily focusing on classification tasks where adversaries manipulate the model prediction. While demonstrably malicious, the immediate real-world impact of such prediction-altering attacks has remained unclear. In this paper we introduce a novel and significantly more potent class of backdoors that builds upon recent advancements in architectural backdoors. We demonstrate how these backdoors can be specifically engineered to exploit batched inference, a common technique for hardware utilization, enabling large-scale user data manipulation and theft. By targeting the batching process, these architectural backdoors facilitate information leakage between concurrent user requests and allow attackers to fully control model responses directed at other users within the same batch. In other words, an attacker who can change the model architecture can set and steal model inputs and outputs of other users within the same batch. We show that such attacks are not only feasible but also alarmingly effective, can be readily injected into prevalent model architectures, and represent a truly malicious threat to user privacy and system integrity. Critically, to counteract this new class of vulnerabilities, we propose a deterministic mitigation strategy that provides formal guarantees against this new attack vector, unlike prior work that relied on Large Language Models to find the backdoors. Our mitigation strategy employs a novel Information Flow Control mechanism that analyzes the model graph and proves non-interference between different user inputs within the same batch. Using our mitigation strategy we perform a large scale analysis of models hosted through Hugging Face and find over 200 models that introduce (unintended) information leakage between batch entries due to the use of dynamic quantization.

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable reasoning capabilities through test-time scaling approaches, particularly when fine-tuned with chain-of-thought (CoT) data distilled from more powerful large reasoning models (LRMs). However, these reasoning chains often contain verbose elements that mirror human problem-solving, categorized as progressive reasoning (the essential solution development path) and functional elements (verification processes, alternative solution approaches, and error corrections). While progressive reasoning is crucial, the functional elements significantly increase computational demands during test-time inference. We introduce PIR (Perplexity-based Importance Refinement), a principled framework that quantitatively evaluates the importance of each reasoning step based on its impact on answer prediction confidence. PIR systematically identifies and selectively prunes only low-importance functional steps while preserving progressive reasoning components, creating optimized training data that maintains the integrity of the core solution path while reducing verbosity. Models fine-tuned on PIR-optimized data exhibit superior test-time scaling properties, generating more concise reasoning chains while achieving improved accuracy (+0.9\% to +6.6\%) with significantly reduced token usage (-3\% to -41\%) across challenging reasoning benchmarks (AIME, AMC, and GPQA Diamond). Our approach demonstrates strong generalizability across different model sizes, data sources, and token budgets, offering a practical solution for deploying reasoning-capable LLMs in scenarios where efficient test-time scaling, response time, and computational efficiency are valuable constraints.

Human-annotated textual explanations are becoming increasingly important in Explainable Natural Language Processing. Rationale extraction aims to provide faithful (i.e., reflective of the behavior of the model) and plausible (i.e., convincing to humans) explanations by highlighting the inputs that had the largest impact on the prediction without compromising the performance of the task model. In recent works, the focus of training rationale extractors was primarily on optimizing for plausibility using human highlights, while the task model was trained on jointly optimizing for task predictive accuracy and faithfulness. We propose REFER, a framework that employs a differentiable rationale extractor that allows to back-propagate through the rationale extraction process. We analyze the impact of using human highlights during training by jointly training the task model and the rationale extractor. In our experiments, REFER yields significantly better results in terms of faithfulness, plausibility, and downstream task accuracy on both in-distribution and out-of-distribution data. On both e-SNLI and CoS-E, our best setting produces better results in terms of composite normalized relative gain than the previous baselines by 11% and 3%, respectively.

Medical applications of machine learning (ML) have experienced a surge in popularity in recent years. The intensive care unit (ICU) is a natural habitat for ML given the abundance of available data from electronic health records. Models have been proposed to address numerous ICU prediction tasks like the early detection of complications. While authors frequently report state-of-the-art performance, it is challenging to verify claims of superiority. Datasets and code are not always published, and cohort definitions, preprocessing pipelines, and training setups are difficult to reproduce. This work introduces Yet Another ICU Benchmark (YAIB), a modular framework that allows researchers to define reproducible and comparable clinical ML experiments; we offer an end-to-end solution from cohort definition to model evaluation. The framework natively supports most open-access ICU datasets (MIMIC III/IV, eICU, HiRID, AUMCdb) and is easily adaptable to future ICU datasets. Combined with a transparent preprocessing pipeline and extensible training code for multiple ML and deep learning models, YAIB enables unified model development. Our benchmark comes with five predefined established prediction tasks (mortality, acute kidney injury, sepsis, kidney function, and length of stay) developed in collaboration with clinicians. Adding further tasks is straightforward by design. Using YAIB, we demonstrate that the choice of dataset, cohort definition, and preprocessing have a major impact on the prediction performance - often more so than model class - indicating an urgent need for YAIB as a holistic benchmarking tool. We provide our work to the clinical ML community to accelerate method development and enable real-world clinical implementations. Software Repository: https://github.com/rvandewater/YAIB.

In aspect-based sentiment analysis (ABSA), many neural models are equipped with an attention mechanism to quantify the contribution of each context word to sentiment prediction. However, such a mechanism suffers from one drawback: only a few frequent words with sentiment polarities are tended to be taken into consideration for final sentiment decision while abundant infrequent sentiment words are ignored by models. To deal with this issue, we propose a progressive self-supervised attention learning approach for attentional ABSA models. In this approach, we iteratively perform sentiment prediction on all training instances, and continually learn useful attention supervision information in the meantime. During training, at each iteration, context words with the highest impact on sentiment prediction, identified based on their attention weights or gradients, are extracted as words with active/misleading influence on the correct/incorrect prediction for each instance. Words extracted in this way are masked for subsequent iterations. To exploit these extracted words for refining ABSA models, we augment the conventional training objective with a regularization term that encourages ABSA models to not only take full advantage of the extracted active context words but also decrease the weights of those misleading words. We integrate the proposed approach into three state-of-the-art neural ABSA models. Experiment results and in-depth analyses show that our approach yields better attention results and significantly enhances the performance of all three models. We release the source code and trained models at https://github.com/DeepLearnXMU/PSSAttention.

Recently, influence functions present an apparatus for achieving explainability for deep neural models by quantifying the perturbation of individual train instances that might impact a test prediction. Our objectives in this paper are twofold. First we incorporate influence functions as a feedback into the model to improve its performance. Second, in a dataset extension exercise, using influence functions to automatically identify data points that have been initially `silver' annotated by some existing method and need to be cross-checked (and corrected) by annotators to improve the model performance. To meet these objectives, in this paper, we introduce InfFeed, which uses influence functions to compute the influential instances for a target instance. Toward the first objective, we adjust the label of the target instance based on its influencer(s) label. In doing this, InfFeed outperforms the state-of-the-art baselines (including LLMs) by a maximum macro F1-score margin of almost 4% for hate speech classification, 3.5% for stance classification, and 3% for irony and 2% for sarcasm detection. Toward the second objective we show that manually re-annotating only those silver annotated data points in the extension set that have a negative influence can immensely improve the model performance bringing it very close to the scenario where all the data points in the extension set have gold labels. This allows for huge reduction of the number of data points that need to be manually annotated since out of the silver annotated extension dataset, the influence function scheme picks up ~1/1000 points that need manual correction.

Recent advances in interpretability suggest we can project weights and hidden states of transformer-based language models (LMs) to their vocabulary, a transformation that makes them human interpretable and enables us to assign semantics to what was seen only as numerical vectors. In this paper, we interpret LM attention heads and memory values, the vectors the models dynamically create and recall while processing a given input. By analyzing the tokens they represent through this projection, we identify patterns in the information flow inside the attention mechanism. Based on these discoveries, we create a tool to visualize a forward pass of Generative Pre-trained Transformers (GPTs) as an interactive flow graph, with nodes representing neurons or hidden states and edges representing the interactions between them. Our visualization simplifies huge amounts of data into easy-to-read plots that reflect why models output their results. We demonstrate the utility of our modeling by identifying the effect LM components have on the intermediate processing in the model before outputting a prediction. For instance, we discover that layer norms are used as semantic filters and find neurons that act as regularization vectors.

Earth observation (EO) applications involving complex and heterogeneous data sources are commonly approached with machine learning models. However, there is a common assumption that data sources will be persistently available. Different situations could affect the availability of EO sources, like noise, clouds, or satellite mission failures. In this work, we assess the impact of missing temporal and static EO sources in trained models across four datasets with classification and regression tasks. We compare the predictive quality of different methods and find that some are naturally more robust to missing data. The Ensemble strategy, in particular, achieves a prediction robustness up to 100%. We evidence that missing scenarios are significantly more challenging in regression than classification tasks. Finally, we find that the optical view is the most critical view when it is missing individually.

Explainability is one of the key elements for building trust in AI systems. Among numerous attempts to make AI explainable, quantifying the effect of explanations remains a challenge in conducting human-AI collaborative tasks. Aside from the ability to predict the overall behavior of AI, in many applications, users need to understand an AI agent's competency in different aspects of the task domain. In this paper, we evaluate the impact of explanations on the user's mental model of AI agent competency within the task of visual question answering (VQA). We quantify users' understanding of competency, based on the correlation between the actual system performance and user rankings. We introduce an explainable VQA system that uses spatial and object features and is powered by the BERT language model. Each group of users sees only one kind of explanation to rank the competencies of the VQA model. The proposed model is evaluated through between-subject experiments to probe explanations' impact on the user's perception of competency. The comparison between two VQA models shows BERT based explanations and the use of object features improve the user's prediction of the model's competencies.

Government fiscal policies, particularly annual union budgets, exert significant influence on financial markets. However, real-time analysis of budgetary impacts on sector-specific equity performance remains methodologically challenging and largely unexplored. This study proposes a framework to systematically identify and rank sectors poised to benefit from India's Union Budget announcements. The framework addresses two core tasks: (1) multi-label classification of excerpts from budget transcripts into 81 predefined economic sectors, and (2) performance ranking of these sectors. Leveraging a comprehensive corpus of Indian Union Budget transcripts from 1947 to 2025, we introduce BASIR (Budget-Assisted Sectoral Impact Ranking), an annotated dataset mapping excerpts from budgetary transcripts to sectoral impacts. Our architecture incorporates fine-tuned embeddings for sector identification, coupled with language models that rank sectors based on their predicted performances. Our results demonstrate 0.605 F1-score in sector classification, and 0.997 NDCG score in predicting ranks of sectors based on post-budget performances. The methodology enables investors and policymakers to quantify fiscal policy impacts through structured, data-driven insights, addressing critical gaps in manual analysis. The annotated dataset has been released under CC-BY-NC-SA-4.0 license to advance computational economics research.

The impact of person-job fit on job satisfaction and performance is widely acknowledged, which highlights the importance of providing workers with next steps at the right time in their career. This task of predicting the next step in a career is known as career path prediction, and has diverse applications such as turnover prevention and internal job mobility. Existing methods to career path prediction rely on large amounts of private career history data to model the interactions between job titles and companies. We propose leveraging the unexplored textual descriptions that are part of work experience sections in resumes. We introduce a structured dataset of 2,164 anonymized career histories, annotated with ESCO occupation labels. Based on this dataset, we present a novel representation learning approach, CareerBERT, specifically designed for work history data. We develop a skill-based model and a text-based model for career path prediction, which achieve 35.24% and 39.61% recall@10 respectively on our dataset. Finally, we show that both approaches are complementary as a hybrid approach achieves the strongest result with 43.01% recall@10.

We present a detailed investigation on the structure of neutron stars, incorporating the presence of hyperons within a relativistic model under the mean-field approximation. Employing coupling constants derived from QCD sum rules, we explore the particle fraction in beta equilibrium and establish the mass-radius relationship for neutron stars with hyperonic matter. Additionally, we compute the stellar Love number (K_{2}) and the tidal deformability parameter (varLambda), providing valuable insights into the dynamical properties of these celestial objects. Through comparison with theoretical predictions and observational data, our results exhibit good agreement, affirming the validity of our approach. These findings contribute significantly to refining the understanding of neutron star physics, particularly in environments containing hyperons, and offer essential constraints on the equation of state governing such extreme astrophysical conditions.

The impact of soiling on solar panels is an important and well-studied problem in renewable energy sector. In this paper, we present the first convolutional neural network (CNN) based approach for solar panel soiling and defect analysis. Our approach takes an RGB image of solar panel and environmental factors as inputs to predict power loss, soiling localization, and soiling type. In computer vision, localization is a complex task which typically requires manually labeled training data such as bounding boxes or segmentation masks. Our proposed approach consists of specialized four stages which completely avoids localization ground truth and only needs panel images with power loss labels for training. The region of impact area obtained from the predicted localization masks are classified into soiling types using the webly supervised learning. For improving localization capabilities of CNNs, we introduce a novel bi-directional input-aware fusion (BiDIAF) block that reinforces the input at different levels of CNN to learn input-specific feature maps. Our empirical study shows that BiDIAF improves the power loss prediction accuracy by about 3% and localization accuracy by about 4%. Our end-to-end model yields further improvement of about 24% on localization when learned in a weakly supervised manner. Our approach is generalizable and showed promising results on web crawled solar panel images. Our system has a frame rate of 22 fps (including all steps) on a NVIDIA TitanX GPU. Additionally, we collected first of it's kind dataset for solar panel image analysis consisting 45,000+ images.

This article presents the prediction difference analysis method for visualizing the response of a deep neural network to a specific input. When classifying images, the method highlights areas in a given input image that provide evidence for or against a certain class. It overcomes several shortcoming of previous methods and provides great additional insight into the decision making process of classifiers. Making neural network decisions interpretable through visualization is important both to improve models and to accelerate the adoption of black-box classifiers in application areas such as medicine. We illustrate the method in experiments on natural images (ImageNet data), as well as medical images (MRI brain scans).

Large language models (LLMs) show impressive capabilities, matching and sometimes exceeding human performance in many domains. This study explores the potential of LLMs to augment judgement in forecasting tasks. We evaluated the impact on forecasting accuracy of two GPT-4-Turbo assistants: one designed to provide high-quality advice ('superforecasting'), and the other designed to be overconfident and base-rate-neglecting. Participants (N = 991) had the option to consult their assigned LLM assistant throughout the study, in contrast to a control group that used a less advanced model (DaVinci-003) without direct forecasting support. Our preregistered analyses reveal that LLM augmentation significantly enhances forecasting accuracy by 23% across both types of assistants, compared to the control group. This improvement occurs despite the superforecasting assistant's higher accuracy in predictions, indicating the augmentation's benefit is not solely due to model prediction accuracy. Exploratory analyses showed a pronounced effect in one forecasting item, without which we find that the superforecasting assistant increased accuracy by 43%, compared with 28% for the biased assistant. We further examine whether LLM augmentation disproportionately benefits less skilled forecasters, degrades the wisdom-of-the-crowd by reducing prediction diversity, or varies in effectiveness with question difficulty. Our findings do not consistently support these hypotheses. Our results suggest that access to an LLM assistant, even a biased one, can be a helpful decision aid in cognitively demanding tasks where the answer is not known at the time of interaction.

Speech foundation models, such as HuBERT and its variants, are pre-trained on large amounts of unlabeled speech data and then used for a range of downstream tasks. These models use a masked prediction objective, where the model learns to predict information about masked input segments from the unmasked context. The choice of prediction targets in this framework impacts their performance on downstream tasks. For instance, models pre-trained with targets that capture prosody learn representations suited for speaker-related tasks, while those pre-trained with targets that capture phonetics learn representations suited for content-related tasks. Moreover, prediction targets can differ in the level of detail they capture. Models pre-trained with targets that encode fine-grained acoustic features perform better on tasks like denoising, while those pre-trained with targets focused on higher-level abstractions are more effective for content-related tasks. Despite the importance of prediction targets, the design choices that affect them have not been thoroughly studied. This work explores the design choices and their impact on downstream task performance. Our results indicate that the commonly used design choices for HuBERT can be suboptimal. We propose approaches to create more informative prediction targets and demonstrate their effectiveness through improvements across various downstream tasks.

Cricket, "a Gentleman's Game", is a prominent sport rising worldwide. Due to the rising competitiveness of the sport, players and team management have become more professional with their approach. Prior studies predicted individual performance or chose the best team but did not highlight the batter's potential. On the other hand, our research aims to evaluate a player's impact while considering his control in various circumstances. This paper seeks to understand the conundrum behind this impactful performance by determining how much control a player has over the circumstances and generating the "Effective Runs",a new measure we propose. We first gathered the fundamental cricket data from open-source datasets; however, variables like pitch, weather, and control were not readily available for all matches. As a result, we compiled our corpus data by analyzing the commentary of the match summaries. This gave us an insight into the particular game's weather and pitch conditions. Furthermore, ball-by-ball inspection from the commentary led us to determine the control of the shots played by the batter. We collected data for the entire One Day International career, up to February 2022, of 3 prominent cricket players: Rohit G Sharma, David A Warner, and Kane S Williamson. Lastly, to prepare the dataset, we encoded, scaled, and split the dataset to train and test Machine Learning Algorithms. We used Multiple Linear Regression (MLR), Polynomial Regression, Support Vector Regression (SVR), Decision Tree Regression, and Random Forest Regression on each player's data individually to train them and predict the Impact the player will have on the game. Multiple Linear Regression and Random Forest give the best predictions accuracy of 90.16 percent and 87.12 percent, respectively.

We participated in the SynthRAD2025 challenge (Tasks 1 and 2) with a unified pipeline for synthetic CT (sCT) generation from MRI and CBCT, implemented using the KonfAI framework. Our model is a 2.5D U-Net++ with a ResNet-34 encoder, trained jointly across anatomical regions and fine-tuned per region. The loss function combined pixel-wise L1 loss with IMPACT-Synth, a perceptual loss derived from SAM and TotalSegmentator to enhance structural fidelity. Training was performed using AdamW (initial learning rate = 0.001, halved every 25k steps) on patch-based, normalized, body-masked inputs (320x320 for MRI, 256x256 for CBCT), with random flipping as the only augmentation. No post-processing was applied. Final predictions leveraged test-time augmentation and five-fold ensembling. The best model was selected based on validation MAE. Two registration strategies were evaluated: (i) Elastix with mutual information, consistent with the challenge pipeline, and (ii) IMPACT, a feature-based similarity metric leveraging pretrained segmentation networks. On the local test sets, IMPACT-based registration achieved more accurate and anatomically consistent alignments than mutual-information-based registration, resulting in improved sCT synthesis with lower MAE and more realistic anatomical structures. On the public validation set, however, models trained with Elastix-aligned data achieved higher scores, reflecting a registration bias favoring alignment strategies consistent with the evaluation pipeline. This highlights how registration errors can propagate into supervised learning, influencing both training and evaluation, and potentially inflating performance metrics at the expense of anatomical fidelity. By promoting anatomically consistent alignment, IMPACT helps mitigate this bias and supports the development of more robust and generalizable sCT synthesis models.

Despite widespread adoption, the impact of AI tools on software development in the wild remains understudied. We conduct a randomized controlled trial (RCT) to understand how AI tools at the February-June 2025 frontier affect the productivity of experienced open-source developers. 16 developers with moderate AI experience complete 246 tasks in mature projects on which they have an average of 5 years of prior experience. Each task is randomly assigned to allow or disallow usage of early 2025 AI tools. When AI tools are allowed, developers primarily use Cursor Pro, a popular code editor, and Claude 3.5/3.7 Sonnet. Before starting tasks, developers forecast that allowing AI will reduce completion time by 24%. After completing the study, developers estimate that allowing AI reduced completion time by 20%. Surprisingly, we find that allowing AI actually increases completion time by 19%--AI tooling slowed developers down. This slowdown also contradicts predictions from experts in economics (39% shorter) and ML (38% shorter). To understand this result, we collect and evaluate evidence for 20 properties of our setting that a priori could contribute to the observed slowdown effect--for example, the size and quality standards of projects, or prior developer experience with AI tooling. Although the influence of experimental artifacts cannot be entirely ruled out, the robustness of the slowdown effect across our analyses suggests it is unlikely to primarily be a function of our experimental design.

Retrieval-augmented Generation (RAG) enhances Large Language Models (LLMs) by integrating external knowledge to reduce hallucinations and incorporate up-to-date information without retraining. As an essential part of RAG, external knowledge bases are commonly built by extracting structured data from unstructured PDF documents using Optical Character Recognition (OCR). However, given the imperfect prediction of OCR and the inherent non-uniform representation of structured data, knowledge bases inevitably contain various OCR noises. In this paper, we introduce OHRBench, the first benchmark for understanding the cascading impact of OCR on RAG systems. OHRBench includes 350 carefully selected unstructured PDF documents from six real-world RAG application domains, along with Q&As derived from multimodal elements in documents, challenging existing OCR solutions used for RAG To better understand OCR's impact on RAG systems, we identify two primary types of OCR noise: Semantic Noise and Formatting Noise and apply perturbation to generate a set of structured data with varying degrees of each OCR noise. Using OHRBench, we first conduct a comprehensive evaluation of current OCR solutions and reveal that none is competent for constructing high-quality knowledge bases for RAG systems. We then systematically evaluate the impact of these two noise types and demonstrate the vulnerability of RAG systems. Furthermore, we discuss the potential of employing Vision-Language Models (VLMs) without OCR in RAG systems. Code: https://github.com/opendatalab/OHR-Bench

Predicting stock market movements has always been of great interest to investors and an active area of research. Research has proven that popularity of products is highly influenced by what people talk about. Social media like Twitter, Reddit have become hotspots of such influences. This paper investigates the impact of social media posts on close price prediction of stocks using Twitter and Reddit posts. Our objective is to integrate sentiment of social media data with historical stock data and study its effect on closing prices using time series models. We carried out rigorous experiments and deep analysis using multiple deep learning based models on different datasets to study the influence of posts by executives and general people on the close price. Experimental results on multiple stocks (Apple and Tesla) and decentralised currencies (Bitcoin and Ethereum) consistently show improvements in prediction on including social media data and greater improvements on including executive posts.

In recent years, Classical Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) have been applied for image recognition successfully. Quantum Convolutional Neural Networks (QCNNs) are proposed as a novel generalization to CNNs by using quantum mechanisms. The quantum mechanisms lead to an efficient training process in QCNNs by reducing the size of input from N to log_2N. This paper implements and compares both CNNs and QCNNs by testing losses and prediction accuracy on three commonly used datasets. The datasets include the MNIST hand-written digits, Fashion MNIST and cat/dog face images. Additionally, data augmentation (DA), a technique commonly used in CNNs to improve the performance of classification by generating similar images based on original inputs, is also implemented in QCNNs. Surprisingly, the results showed that data augmentation didn't improve QCNNs performance. The reasons and logic behind this result are discussed, hoping to expand our understanding of Quantum machine learning theory.

Volatility clustering is a crucial property that has a substantial impact on stock market patterns. Nonetheless, developing robust models for accurately predicting future stock price volatility is a difficult research topic. For predicting the volatility of three equities listed on India's national stock market (NSE), we propose multiple volatility models depending on the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH), Glosten-Jagannathan-GARCH (GJR-GARCH), Exponential general autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (EGARCH), and LSTM framework. Sector-wise stocks have been chosen in our study. The sectors which have been considered are banking, information technology (IT), and pharma. yahoo finance has been used to obtain stock price data from Jan 2017 to Dec 2021. Among the pulled-out records, the data from Jan 2017 to Dec 2020 have been taken for training, and data from 2021 have been chosen for testing our models. The performance of predicting the volatility of stocks of three sectors has been evaluated by implementing three different types of GARCH models as well as by the LSTM model are compared. It has been observed the LSTM performed better in predicting volatility in pharma over banking and IT sectors. In tandem, it was also observed that E-GARCH performed better in the case of the banking sector and for IT and pharma, GJR-GARCH performed better.

As infamous invaders to the North American ecosystem, the Asian giant hornet (Vespa mandarinia) is devastating not only to native bee colonies, but also to local apiculture. One of the most effective way to combat the harmful species is to locate and destroy their nests. By mobilizing the public to actively report possible sightings of the Asian giant hornet, the governmentcould timely send inspectors to confirm and possibly destroy the nests. However, such confirmation requires lab expertise, where manually checking the reports one by one is extremely consuming of human resources. Further given the limited knowledge of the public about the Asian giant hornet and the randomness of report submission, only few of the numerous reports proved positive, i.e. existing nests. How to classify or prioritize the reports efficiently and automatically, so as to determine the dispatch of personnel, is of great significance to the control of the Asian giant hornet. In this paper, we propose a method to predict the priority of sighting reports based on machine learning. We model the problem of optimal prioritization of sighting reports as a problem of classification and prediction. We extracted a variety of rich features in the report: location, time, image(s), and textual description. Based on these characteristics, we propose a classification model based on logistic regression to predict the credibility of a certain report. Furthermore, our model quantifies the impact between reports to get the priority ranking of the reports. Extensive experiments on the public dataset from the WSDA (the Washington State Department of Agriculture) have proved the effectiveness of our method.

The predictions of small transformers, trained to calculate the greatest common divisor (GCD) of two positive integers, can be fully characterized by looking at model inputs and outputs. As training proceeds, the model learns a list mathcal D of integers, products of divisors of the base used to represent integers and small primes, and predicts the largest element of mathcal D that divides both inputs. Training distributions impact performance. Models trained from uniform operands only learn a handful of GCD (up to 38 GCD leq100). Log-uniform operands boost performance to 73 GCD leq 100, and a log-uniform distribution of outcomes (i.e. GCD) to 91. However, training from uniform (balanced) GCD breaks explainability.

Most of the current transformer-based chemical language models are pre-trained on millions to billions of molecules. However, the improvement from such scaling in dataset size is not confidently linked to improved molecular property prediction. The aim of this study is to investigate and overcome some of the limitations of transformer models in predicting molecular properties. Specifically, we examine the impact of pre-training dataset size and diversity on the performance of transformer models and investigate the use of domain adaptation as a technique for improving model performance. First, our findings indicate that increasing pretraining dataset size beyond 400K molecules from the GuacaMol dataset does not result in a significant improvement on four ADME endpoints, namely, solubility, permeability, microsomal stability, and plasma protein binding. Second, our results demonstrate that using domain adaptation by further training the transformer model on a small set of domain-relevant molecules, i.e., a few hundred to a few thousand, using multi-task regression of physicochemical properties was sufficient to significantly improve performance for three out of the four investigated ADME endpoints (P-value < 0.001). Finally, we observe that a model pre-trained on 400K molecules and domain adopted on a few hundred/thousand molecules performs similarly (P-value > 0.05) to more complicated transformer models like MolBERT(pre-trained on 1.3M molecules) and MolFormer (pre-trained on 100M molecules). A comparison to a random forest model trained on basic physicochemical properties showed similar performance to the examined transformer models. We believe that current transformer models can be improved through further systematic analysis of pre-training and downstream data, pre-training objectives, and scaling laws, ultimately leading to better and more helpful models.

Background and Objective: Radiation pneumonitis (RP) is a side effect of thoracic radiation therapy. Recently, Machine learning (ML) models enhanced with radiomic and dosiomic features provide better predictions by incorporating spatial information beyond DVHs. However, to improve the clinical decision process, we propose to use uncertainty quantification (UQ) to improve the confidence in model prediction. This study evaluates the impact of post hoc UQ methods on the discriminative performance and calibration of ML models for RP prediction. Methods: This study evaluated four ML models: logistic regression (LR), support vector machines (SVM), extreme gradient boosting (XGB), and random forest (RF), using radiomic, dosiomic, and dosimetric features to predict RP. We applied UQ methods, including Patt scaling, isotonic regression, Venn-ABERS predictor, and Conformal Prediction, to quantify uncertainty. Model performance was assessed through Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (AUROC), Area Under the Precision-Recall Curve (AUPRC), and Adaptive Calibration Error (ACE) using Leave-One-Out Cross-Validation (LOO-CV). Results: UQ methods enhanced predictive performance, particularly for high-certainty predictions, while also improving calibration. Radiomic and dosiomic features increased model accuracy but introduced calibration challenges, especially for non-linear models like XGB and RF. Performance gains from UQ methods were most noticeable at higher certainty thresholds. Conclusion: Integrating UQ into ML models with radiomic and dosiomic features improves both predictive accuracy and calibration, supporting more reliable clinical decision-making. The findings emphasize the value of UQ methods in enhancing applicability of predictive models for RP in healthcare settings.

Model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL) is a promising route to sample-efficient policy optimization. However, a known vulnerability of reconstruction-based MBRL consists of scenarios in which detailed aspects of the world are highly predictable, but irrelevant to learning a good policy. Such scenarios can lead the model to exhaust its capacity on meaningless content, at the cost of neglecting important environment dynamics. While existing approaches attempt to solve this problem, we highlight its continuing impact on leading MBRL methods -- including DreamerV3 and DreamerPro -- with a novel environment where background distractions are intricate, predictable, and useless for planning future actions. To address this challenge we develop a method for focusing the capacity of the world model through synergy of a pretrained segmentation model, a task-aware reconstruction loss, and adversarial learning. Our method outperforms a variety of other approaches designed to reduce the impact of distractors, and is an advance towards robust model-based reinforcement learning.

Reducing traffic accidents is an important public safety challenge, therefore, accident analysis and prediction has been a topic of much research over the past few decades. Using small-scale datasets with limited coverage, being dependent on extensive set of data, and being not applicable for real-time purposes are the important shortcomings of the existing studies. To address these challenges, we propose a new solution for real-time traffic accident prediction using easy-to-obtain, but sparse data. Our solution relies on a deep-neural-network model (which we have named DAP, for Deep Accident Prediction); which utilizes a variety of data attributes such as traffic events, weather data, points-of-interest, and time. DAP incorporates multiple components including a recurrent (for time-sensitive data), a fully connected (for time-insensitive data), and a trainable embedding component (to capture spatial heterogeneity). To fill the data gap, we have - through a comprehensive process of data collection, integration, and augmentation - created a large-scale publicly available database of accident information named US-Accidents. By employing the US-Accidents dataset and through an extensive set of experiments across several large cities, we have evaluated our proposal against several baselines. Our analysis and results show significant improvements to predict rare accident events. Further, we have shown the impact of traffic information, time, and points-of-interest data for real-time accident prediction.

We investigate the potential implications of large language models (LLMs), such as Generative Pre-trained Transformers (GPTs), on the U.S. labor market, focusing on the increased capabilities arising from LLM-powered software compared to LLMs on their own. Using a new rubric, we assess occupations based on their alignment with LLM capabilities, integrating both human expertise and GPT-4 classifications. Our findings reveal that around 80% of the U.S. workforce could have at least 10% of their work tasks affected by the introduction of LLMs, while approximately 19% of workers may see at least 50% of their tasks impacted. We do not make predictions about the development or adoption timeline of such LLMs. The projected effects span all wage levels, with higher-income jobs potentially facing greater exposure to LLM capabilities and LLM-powered software. Significantly, these impacts are not restricted to industries with higher recent productivity growth. Our analysis suggests that, with access to an LLM, about 15% of all worker tasks in the US could be completed significantly faster at the same level of quality. When incorporating software and tooling built on top of LLMs, this share increases to between 47 and 56% of all tasks. This finding implies that LLM-powered software will have a substantial effect on scaling the economic impacts of the underlying models. We conclude that LLMs such as GPTs exhibit traits of general-purpose technologies, indicating that they could have considerable economic, social, and policy implications.

Adverse drug events (ADEs) significantly impact clinical research, causing many clinical trial failures. ADE prediction is key for developing safer medications and enhancing patient outcomes. To support this effort, we introduce CT-ADE, a dataset for multilabel predictive modeling of ADEs in monopharmacy treatments. CT-ADE integrates data from 2,497 unique drugs, encompassing 168,984 drug-ADE pairs extracted from clinical trials, annotated with patient and contextual information, and comprehensive ADE concepts standardized across multiple levels of the MedDRA ontology. Preliminary analyses with large language models (LLMs) achieved F1-scores up to 55.90%. Models using patient and contextual information showed F1-score improvements of 21%-38% over models using only chemical structure data. Our results highlight the importance of target population and treatment regimens in the predictive modeling of ADEs, offering greater performance gains than LLM domain specialization and scaling. CT-ADE provides an essential tool for researchers aiming to leverage artificial intelligence and machine learning to enhance patient safety and minimize the impact of ADEs on pharmaceutical research and development. The dataset is publicly accessible at https://github.com/ds4dh/CT-ADE.

Understanding a student's problem-solving strategy can have a significant impact on effective math learning using Intelligent Tutoring Systems (ITSs) and Adaptive Instructional Systems (AISs). For instance, the ITS/AIS can better personalize itself to correct specific misconceptions that are indicated by incorrect strategies, specific problems can be designed to improve strategies and frustration can be minimized by adapting to a student's natural way of thinking rather than trying to fit a standard strategy for all. While it may be possible for human experts to identify strategies manually in classroom settings with sufficient student interaction, it is not possible to scale this up to big data. Therefore, we leverage advances in Machine Learning and AI methods to perform scalable strategy prediction that is also fair to students at all skill levels. Specifically, we develop an embedding called MVec where we learn a representation based on the mastery of students. We then cluster these embeddings with a non-parametric clustering method where we progressively learn clusters such that we group together instances that have approximately symmetrical strategies. The strategy prediction model is trained on instances sampled from these clusters. This ensures that we train the model over diverse strategies and also that strategies from a particular group do not bias the DNN model, thus allowing it to optimize its parameters over all groups. Using real world large-scale student interaction datasets from MATHia, we implement our approach using transformers and Node2Vec for learning the mastery embeddings and LSTMs for predicting strategies. We show that our approach can scale up to achieve high accuracy by training on a small sample of a large dataset and also has predictive equality, i.e., it can predict strategies equally well for learners at diverse skill levels.

This study introduces PV-RNN, a novel variational RNN inspired by the predictive-coding ideas. The model learns to extract the probabilistic structures hidden in fluctuating temporal patterns by dynamically changing the stochasticity of its latent states. Its architecture attempts to address two major concerns of variational Bayes RNNs: how can latent variables learn meaningful representations and how can the inference model transfer future observations to the latent variables. PV-RNN does both by introducing adaptive vectors mirroring the training data, whose values can then be adapted differently during evaluation. Moreover, prediction errors during backpropagation, rather than external inputs during the forward computation, are used to convey information to the network about the external data. For testing, we introduce error regression for predicting unseen sequences as inspired by predictive coding that leverages those mechanisms. The model introduces a weighting parameter, the meta-prior, to balance the optimization pressure placed on two terms of a lower bound on the marginal likelihood of the sequential data. We test the model on two datasets with probabilistic structures and show that with high values of the meta-prior the network develops deterministic chaos through which the data's randomness is imitated. For low values, the model behaves as a random process. The network performs best on intermediate values, and is able to capture the latent probabilistic structure with good generalization. Analyzing the meta-prior's impact on the network allows to precisely study the theoretical value and practical benefits of incorporating stochastic dynamics in our model. We demonstrate better prediction performance on a robot imitation task with our model using error regression compared to a standard variational Bayes model lacking such a procedure.

In recent years, groundbreaking advancements in natural language processing have culminated in the emergence of powerful large language models (LLMs), which have showcased remarkable capabilities across a vast array of domains, including the understanding, generation, and translation of natural language, and even tasks that extend beyond language processing. In this report, we delve into the performance of LLMs within the context of scientific discovery, focusing on GPT-4, the state-of-the-art language model. Our investigation spans a diverse range of scientific areas encompassing drug discovery, biology, computational chemistry (density functional theory (DFT) and molecular dynamics (MD)), materials design, and partial differential equations (PDE). Evaluating GPT-4 on scientific tasks is crucial for uncovering its potential across various research domains, validating its domain-specific expertise, accelerating scientific progress, optimizing resource allocation, guiding future model development, and fostering interdisciplinary research. Our exploration methodology primarily consists of expert-driven case assessments, which offer qualitative insights into the model's comprehension of intricate scientific concepts and relationships, and occasionally benchmark testing, which quantitatively evaluates the model's capacity to solve well-defined domain-specific problems. Our preliminary exploration indicates that GPT-4 exhibits promising potential for a variety of scientific applications, demonstrating its aptitude for handling complex problem-solving and knowledge integration tasks. Broadly speaking, we evaluate GPT-4's knowledge base, scientific understanding, scientific numerical calculation abilities, and various scientific prediction capabilities.

The absence of transparency and explainability hinders the clinical adoption of Machine learning (ML) algorithms. Although various methods of explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) have been suggested, there is a lack of literature that delves into their practicality and assesses them based on criteria that could foster trust in clinical environments. To address this gap this study evaluates two popular XAI methods used for explaining predictive models in the healthcare context in terms of whether they (i) generate domain-appropriate representation, i.e. coherent with respect to the application task, (ii) impact clinical workflow and (iii) are consistent. To that end, explanations generated at the cohort and patient levels were analysed. The paper reports the first benchmarking of the XAI methods applied to risk prediction models obtained by evaluating the concordance between generated explanations and the trigger of a future clinical deterioration episode recorded by the data collection system. We carried out an analysis using two Electronic Medical Records (EMR) datasets sourced from Australian major hospitals. The findings underscore the limitations of state-of-the-art XAI methods in the clinical context and their potential benefits. We discuss these limitations and contribute to the theoretical development of trustworthy XAI solutions where clinical decision support guides the choice of intervention by suggesting the pattern or drivers for clinical deterioration in the future.

Discontinuing ad creatives at an appropriate time is one of the most important ad operations that can have a significant impact on sales. Such operational support for ineffective ads has been less explored than that for effective ads. After pre-analyzing 1,000,000 real-world ad creatives, we found that there are two types of discontinuation: short-term (i.e., cut-out) and long-term (i.e., wear-out). In this paper, we propose a practical prediction framework for the discontinuation of ad creatives with a hazard function-based loss function inspired by survival analysis. Our framework predicts the discontinuations with a multi-modal deep neural network that takes as input the ad creative (e.g., text, categorical, image, numerical features). To improve the prediction performance for the two different types of discontinuations and for the ad creatives that contribute to sales, we introduce two new techniques: (1) a two-term estimation technique with multi-task learning and (2) a click-through rate-weighting technique for the loss function. We evaluated our framework using the large-scale ad creative dataset, including 10 billion scale impressions. In terms of the concordance index (short: 0.896, long: 0.939, and overall: 0.792), our framework achieved significantly better performance than the conventional method (0.531). Additionally, we confirmed that our framework (i) demonstrated the same degree of discontinuation effect as manual operations for short-term cases, and (ii) accurately predicted the ad discontinuation order, which is important for long-running ad creatives for long-term cases.

Flight delay prediction has become a key focus in air traffic management, as delays highlight inefficiencies that impact overall network performance. This paper presents a lightweight large language model-based multimodal flight delay prediction, formulated from the perspective of air traffic controllers monitoring aircraft delay after entering the terminal area. The approach integrates trajectory representations with textual aeronautical information, including flight information, weather reports, and aerodrome notices, by adapting trajectory data into the language modality to capture airspace conditions. The experiments show that the model consistently achieves sub-minute prediction error by effectively leveraging contextual information related to the sources of delay, fulfilling the operational standard for minute-level precision. The framework demonstrates that linguistic understanding, when combined with cross-modality adaptation of trajectory data, enhances delay prediction. Moreover, the approach shows practicality and potential scalability for real-world operations, supporting real-time updates that refine predictions upon receiving new operational information.

Large audio-language models (LALMs) unify speech and text processing, but their robustness in noisy real-world settings remains underexplored. We investigate how irrelevant audio, such as silence, synthetic noise, and environmental sounds, affects text reasoning tasks where audio is unnecessary. Across three text-based benchmarks, we find that even non-informative audio reduces accuracy and increases prediction volatility; the severity of interference scales with longer durations, higher amplitudes, and elevated decoding temperatures. Silence, often assumed neutral, destabilizes outputs as strongly as synthetic noise. While larger models show greater resilience, vulnerabilities persist across all evaluated systems. We further test mitigation strategies and find that prompting shows limited effectiveness, whereas self-consistency improves stability at the cost of increased computation. Our results reveal cross-modal interference as a key robustness challenge and highlight the need for efficient fusion strategies that preserve reasoning performance in the presence of irrelevant inputs.

CPU performance prediction, which involves forecasting the performance scores of a CPU based on its hardware characteristics during its operation, is a critical technology for computational system design and resource management in the big data era. However, this research field currently faces two significant challenges. First, collecting real-world data is challenging due to the wide variety of CPU products on the market and the highly specialized nature of relevant hardware characteristics. In the research process, this field lacks a standard dataset with unified hardware characteristics, wide data coverage, and comprehensive benchmarks. Second, existing methods based on hardware simulation models or machine learning exhibit notable shortcomings, such as lengthy simulation test cycles and low prediction accuracy. To bridge these gaps, we first collect, preprocess, and standardize historical data from the 4th Generation Intel Xeon Scalable Processors across multiple benchmark suites to create a new dataset, named PerfCastDB. Subsequently, we design a deep learning based model called Nova CPU Performance Predictor (NCPP) as the baseline for this new dataset. The NCPP network is designed based on group attention mechanism. It effectively quantifies the implicit relationships between hardware characteristics within and across groups and comprehensively models the impact of various hardware characteristics on CPU performance prediction. We conduct comparative experiments using the proposed PerfCastDB dataset. Compared to existing approaches, NCPP achieves superior evaluation results, demonstrating its effectiveness. Furthermore, we have open-sourced part of the dataset and the NCPP network code to facilitate subsequent research. The resources can be accessed at https://github.com/xiaoman-liu/NCPP.

With the increasing volume of high-frequency data in the information age, both challenges and opportunities arise in the prediction of stock volatility. On one hand, the outcome of prediction using tradition method combining stock technical and macroeconomic indicators still leaves room for improvement; on the other hand, macroeconomic indicators and peoples' search record on those search engines affecting their interested topics will intuitively have an impact on the stock volatility. For the convenience of assessment of the influence of these indicators, macroeconomic indicators and stock technical indicators are then grouped into objective factors, while Baidu search indices implying people's interested topics are defined as subjective factors. To align different frequency data, we introduce GARCH-MIDAS model. After mixing all the above data, we then feed them into Transformer model as part of the training data. Our experiments show that this model outperforms the baselines in terms of mean square error. The adaption of both types of data under Transformer model significantly reduces the mean square error from 1.00 to 0.86.

Click-through rate (CTR) prediction is a critical task for many applications, as its accuracy has a direct impact on user experience and platform revenue. In recent years, CTR prediction has been widely studied in both academia and industry, resulting in a wide variety of CTR prediction models. Unfortunately, there is still a lack of standardized benchmarks and uniform evaluation protocols for CTR prediction research. This leads to non-reproducible or even inconsistent experimental results among existing studies, which largely limits the practical value and potential impact of their research. In this work, we aim to perform open benchmarking for CTR prediction and present a rigorous comparison of different models in a reproducible manner. To this end, we ran over 7,000 experiments for more than 12,000 GPU hours in total to re-evaluate 24 existing models on multiple datasets and settings. Surprisingly, our experiments show that with sufficient hyper-parameter search and model tuning, many deep models have smaller differences than expected. The results also reveal that making real progress on the modeling of CTR prediction is indeed a very challenging research task. We believe that our benchmarking work could not only allow researchers to gauge the effectiveness of new models conveniently but also make them fairly compare with the state of the arts. We have publicly released the benchmarking code, evaluation protocols, and hyper-parameter settings of our work to promote reproducible research in this field.

How does the internal computation of a machine learning model transform inputs into predictions? In this paper, we introduce a task called component modeling that aims to address this question. The goal of component modeling is to decompose an ML model's prediction in terms of its components -- simple functions (e.g., convolution filters, attention heads) that are the "building blocks" of model computation. We focus on a special case of this task, component attribution, where the goal is to estimate the counterfactual impact of individual components on a given prediction. We then present COAR, a scalable algorithm for estimating component attributions; we demonstrate its effectiveness across models, datasets, and modalities. Finally, we show that component attributions estimated with COAR directly enable model editing across five tasks, namely: fixing model errors, ``forgetting'' specific classes, boosting subpopulation robustness, localizing backdoor attacks, and improving robustness to typographic attacks. We provide code for COAR at https://github.com/MadryLab/modelcomponents .

Keyphrases which are useful in several NLP and IR applications are either extracted from text or predicted by generative models. Contrarily to keyphrase extraction approaches, keyphrase generation models can predict keyphrases that do not appear in a document's text called `absent keyphrases`. This ability means that keyphrase generation models can associate a document to a notion that is not explicitly mentioned in its text. Intuitively, this suggests that for two documents treating the same subjects, a keyphrase generation model is more likely to be homogeneous in their indexing i.e. predict the same keyphrase for both documents, regardless of those keyphrases appearing in their respective text or not; something a keyphrase extraction model would fail to do. Yet, homogeneity of keyphrase prediction models is not covered by current benchmarks. In this work, we introduce a method to evaluate the homogeneity of keyphrase prediction models and study if absent keyphrase generation capabilities actually help the model to be more homogeneous. To our surprise, we show that keyphrase extraction methods are competitive with generative models, and that the ability to generate absent keyphrases can actually have a negative impact on homogeneity. Our data, code and prompts are available on huggingface and github.

This paper introduces TopoDiffuser, a diffusion-based framework for multimodal trajectory prediction that incorporates topometric maps to generate accurate, diverse, and road-compliant future motion forecasts. By embedding structural cues from topometric maps into the denoising process of a conditional diffusion model, the proposed approach enables trajectory generation that naturally adheres to road geometry without relying on explicit constraints. A multimodal conditioning encoder fuses LiDAR observations, historical motion, and route information into a unified bird's-eye-view (BEV) representation. Extensive experiments on the KITTI benchmark demonstrate that TopoDiffuser outperforms state-of-the-art methods, while maintaining strong geometric consistency. Ablation studies further validate the contribution of each input modality, as well as the impact of denoising steps and the number of trajectory samples. To support future research, we publicly release our code at https://github.com/EI-Nav/TopoDiffuser.

Health Indicators (HIs) are essential for predicting system failures in predictive maintenance. While methods like RaPP (Reconstruction along Projected Pathways) improve traditional HI approaches by leveraging autoencoder latent spaces, their performance can be hindered by both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties. In this paper, we propose a novel framework that integrates uncertainty quantification into autoencoder-based latent spaces, enhancing RaPP-generated HIs. We demonstrate that separating aleatoric uncertainty from epistemic uncertainty and cross combining HI information is the driver of accuracy improvements in Remaining Useful Life (RUL) prediction. Our method employs both standard and variational autoencoders to construct these HIs, which are then used to train a machine learning model for RUL prediction. Benchmarked on the NASA C-MAPSS turbofan dataset, our approach outperforms traditional HI-based methods and end-to-end RUL prediction models and is competitive with RUL estimation methods. These results underscore the importance of uncertainty quantification in health assessment and showcase its significant impact on predictive performance when incorporated into the HI construction process.

Social Determinants of Health (SDoH) are economic, social and personal circumstances that affect or influence an individual's health status. SDoHs have shown to be correlated to wellness outcomes, and therefore, are useful to physicians in diagnosing diseases and in decision-making. In this work, we automatically extract SDoHs from clinical text using traditional deep learning and Large Language Models (LLMs) to find the advantages and disadvantages of each on an existing publicly available dataset. Our models outperform a previous reference point on a multilabel SDoH classification by 10 points, and we present a method and model to drastically speed up classification (12X execution time) by eliminating expensive LLM processing. The method we present combines a more nimble and efficient solution that leverages the power of the LLM for precision and traditional deep learning methods for efficiency. We also show highly performant results on a dataset supplemented with synthetic data and several traditional deep learning models that outperform LLMs. Our models and methods offer the next iteration of automatic prediction of SDoHs that impact at-risk patients.

In the rapidly evolving field of metabolic engineering, the quest for efficient and precise gene target identification for metabolite production enhancement presents significant challenges. Traditional approaches, whether knowledge-based or model-based, are notably time-consuming and labor-intensive, due to the vast scale of research literature and the approximation nature of genome-scale metabolic model (GEM) simulations. Therefore, we propose a new task, Gene-Metabolite Association Prediction based on metabolic graphs, to automate the process of candidate gene discovery for a given pair of metabolite and candidate-associated genes, as well as presenting the first benchmark containing 2474 metabolites and 1947 genes of two commonly used microorganisms Saccharomyces cerevisiae (SC) and Issatchenkia orientalis (IO). This task is challenging due to the incompleteness of the metabolic graphs and the heterogeneity among distinct metabolisms. To overcome these limitations, we propose an Interactive Knowledge Transfer mechanism based on Metabolism Graph (IKT4Meta), which improves the association prediction accuracy by integrating the knowledge from different metabolism graphs. First, to build a bridge between two graphs for knowledge transfer, we utilize Pretrained Language Models (PLMs) with external knowledge of genes and metabolites to help generate inter-graph links, significantly alleviating the impact of heterogeneity. Second, we propagate intra-graph links from different metabolic graphs using inter-graph links as anchors. Finally, we conduct the gene-metabolite association prediction based on the enriched metabolism graphs, which integrate the knowledge from multiple microorganisms. Experiments on both types of organisms demonstrate that our proposed methodology outperforms baselines by up to 12.3% across various link prediction frameworks.

This study explores the potential of utilizing administrative claims data, combined with advanced machine learning and deep learning techniques, to predict the progression of Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) to End-Stage Renal Disease (ESRD). We analyze a comprehensive, 10-year dataset provided by a major health insurance organization to develop prediction models for multiple observation windows using traditional machine learning methods such as Random Forest and XGBoost as well as deep learning approaches such as Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks. Our findings demonstrate that the LSTM model, particularly with a 24-month observation window, exhibits superior performance in predicting ESRD progression, outperforming existing models in the literature. We further apply SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis to enhance interpretability, providing insights into the impact of individual features on predictions at the individual patient level. This study underscores the value of leveraging administrative claims data for CKD management and predicting ESRD progression.

Predicting future trajectories for other road agents is an essential task for autonomous vehicles. Established trajectory prediction methods primarily use agent tracks generated by a detection and tracking system and HD map as inputs. In this work, we propose a novel method that also incorporates visual input from surround-view cameras, allowing the model to utilize visual cues such as human gazes and gestures, road conditions, vehicle turn signals, etc, which are typically hidden from the model in prior methods. Furthermore, we use textual descriptions generated by a Vision-Language Model (VLM) and refined by a Large Language Model (LLM) as supervision during training to guide the model on what to learn from the input data. Despite using these extra inputs, our method achieves a latency of 53 ms, making it feasible for real-time processing, which is significantly faster than that of previous single-agent prediction methods with similar performance. Our experiments show that both the visual inputs and the textual descriptions contribute to improvements in trajectory prediction performance, and our qualitative analysis highlights how the model is able to exploit these additional inputs. Lastly, in this work we create and release the nuScenes-Text dataset, which augments the established nuScenes dataset with rich textual annotations for every scene, demonstrating the positive impact of utilizing VLM on trajectory prediction. Our project page is at https://moonseokha.github.io/VisionTrap/

Name-based gender prediction has traditionally categorized individuals as either female or male based on their names, using a binary classification system. That binary approach can be problematic in the cases of gender-neutral names that do not align with any one gender, among other reasons. Relying solely on binary gender categories without recognizing gender-neutral names can reduce the inclusiveness of gender prediction tasks. We introduce an additional gender category, i.e., "neutral", to study and address potential gender biases in Large Language Models (LLMs). We evaluate the performance of several foundational and large language models in predicting gender based on first names only. Additionally, we investigate the impact of adding birth years to enhance the accuracy of gender prediction, accounting for shifting associations between names and genders over time. Our findings indicate that most LLMs identify male and female names with high accuracy (over 80%) but struggle with gender-neutral names (under 40%), and the accuracy of gender prediction is higher for English-based first names than non-English names. The experimental results show that incorporating the birth year does not improve the overall accuracy of gender prediction, especially for names with evolving gender associations. We recommend using caution when applying LLMs for gender identification in downstream tasks, particularly when dealing with non-binary gender labels.

Protein Language Models (PLMs) have emerged as performant and scalable tools for predicting the functional impact and clinical significance of protein-coding variants, but they still lag experimental accuracy. Here, we present a novel fine-tuning approach to improve the performance of PLMs with experimental maps of variant effects from Deep Mutational Scanning (DMS) assays using a Normalised Log-odds Ratio (NLR) head. We find consistent improvements in a held-out protein test set, and on independent DMS and clinical variant annotation benchmarks from ProteinGym and ClinVar. These findings demonstrate that DMS is a promising source of sequence diversity and supervised training data for improving the performance of PLMs for variant effect prediction.

In the realm of financial decision-making, predicting stock prices is pivotal. Artificial intelligence techniques such as long short-term memory networks (LSTMs), support-vector machines (SVMs), and natural language processing (NLP) models are commonly employed to predict said prices. This paper utilizes stock percentage change as training data, in contrast to the traditional use of raw currency values, with a focus on analyzing publicly released news articles. The choice of percentage change aims to provide models with context regarding the significance of price fluctuations and overall price change impact on a given stock. The study employs specialized BERT natural language processing models to predict stock price trends, with a particular emphasis on various data modalities. The results showcase the capabilities of such strategies with a small natural language processing model to accurately predict overall stock trends, and highlight the effectiveness of certain data features and sector-specific data.

In recent years, hate speech has gained great relevance in social networks and other virtual media because of its intensity and its relationship with violent acts against members of protected groups. Due to the great amount of content generated by users, great effort has been made in the research and development of automatic tools to aid the analysis and moderation of this speech, at least in its most threatening forms. One of the limitations of current approaches to automatic hate speech detection is the lack of context. Most studies and resources are performed on data without context; that is, isolated messages without any type of conversational context or the topic being discussed. This restricts the available information to define if a post on a social network is hateful or not. In this work, we provide a novel corpus for contextualized hate speech detection based on user responses to news posts from media outlets on Twitter. This corpus was collected in the Rioplatense dialectal variety of Spanish and focuses on hate speech associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. Classification experiments using state-of-the-art techniques show evidence that adding contextual information improves hate speech detection performance for two proposed tasks (binary and multi-label prediction). We make our code, models, and corpus available for further research.

As researchers and practitioners apply Machine Learning to increasingly more software engineering problems, the approaches they use become more sophisticated. A lot of modern approaches utilize internal code structure in the form of an abstract syntax tree (AST) or its extensions: path-based representation, complex graph combining AST with additional edges. Even though the process of extracting ASTs from code can be done with different parsers, the impact of choosing a parser on the final model quality remains unstudied. Moreover, researchers often omit the exact details of extracting particular code representations. In this work, we evaluate two models, namely Code2Seq and TreeLSTM, in the method name prediction task backed by eight different parsers for the Java language. To unify the process of data preparation with different parsers, we develop SuperParser, a multi-language parser-agnostic library based on PathMiner. SuperParser facilitates the end-to-end creation of datasets suitable for training and evaluation of ML models that work with structural information from source code. Our results demonstrate that trees built by different parsers vary in their structure and content. We then analyze how this diversity affects the models' quality and show that the quality gap between the most and least suitable parsers for both models turns out to be significant. Finally, we discuss other features of the parsers that researchers and practitioners should take into account when selecting a parser along with the impact on the models' quality. The code of SuperParser is publicly available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6366591. We also publish Java-norm, the dataset we use to evaluate the models: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6366599.

Predicting the trajectories of surrounding objects is a critical task for self-driving vehicles and many other autonomous systems. Recent works demonstrate that adversarial attacks on trajectory prediction, where small crafted perturbations are introduced to history trajectories, may significantly mislead the prediction of future trajectories and induce unsafe planning. However, few works have addressed enhancing the robustness of this important safety-critical task.In this paper, we present a novel adversarial training method for trajectory prediction. Compared with typical adversarial training on image tasks, our work is challenged by more random input with rich context and a lack of class labels. To address these challenges, we propose a method based on a semi-supervised adversarial autoencoder, which models disentangled semantic features with domain knowledge and provides additional latent labels for the adversarial training. Extensive experiments with different types of attacks demonstrate that our Semisupervised Semantics-guided Adversarial Training (SSAT) method can effectively mitigate the impact of adversarial attacks by up to 73% and outperform other popular defense methods. In addition, experiments show that our method can significantly improve the system's robust generalization to unseen patterns of attacks. We believe that such semantics-guided architecture and advancement on robust generalization is an important step for developing robust prediction models and enabling safe decision-making.

Deep learning models for music have advanced drastically in recent years, but how good are machine learning models at capturing emotion, and what challenges are researchers facing? In this paper, we provide a comprehensive overview of the available music-emotion datasets and discuss evaluation standards as well as competitions in the field. We also offer a brief overview of various types of music emotion prediction models that have been built over the years, providing insights into the diverse approaches within the field. Through this examination, we highlight the challenges that persist in accurately capturing emotion in music, including issues related to dataset quality, annotation consistency, and model generalization. Additionally, we explore the impact of different modalities, such as audio, MIDI, and physiological signals, on the effectiveness of emotion prediction models. Recognizing the dynamic nature of this field, we have complemented our findings with an accompanying GitHub repository. This repository contains a comprehensive list of music emotion datasets and recent predictive models.

Code completion aims at speeding up code writing by recommending to developers the next tokens they are likely to type. Deep Learning (DL) models pushed the boundaries of code completion by redefining what these coding assistants can do: We moved from predicting few code tokens to automatically generating entire functions. One important factor impacting the performance of DL-based code completion techniques is the context provided as input. With "context" we refer to what the model knows about the code to complete. In a simple scenario, the DL model might be fed with a partially implemented function to complete. In this case, the context is represented by the incomplete function and, based on it, the model must generate a prediction. It is however possible to expand such a context to include additional information, like the whole source code file containing the function to complete, which could be useful to boost the prediction performance. In this work, we present an empirical study investigating how the performance of a DL-based code completion technique is affected by different contexts. We experiment with 8 types of contexts and their combinations. These contexts include: (i) coding contexts, featuring information extracted from the code base in which the code completion is invoked (e.g., code components structurally related to the one to "complete"); (ii) process context, with information aimed at depicting the current status of the project in which a code completion task is triggered (e.g., a textual representation of open issues relevant for the code to complete); and (iii) developer contexts, capturing information about the developer invoking the code completion (e.g., the APIs frequently used). Our results show that additional contextual information can benefit the performance of DL-based code completion, with relative improvements up to +22% in terms of correct predictions.

Argumentation is one of society's foundational pillars, and, sparked by advances in NLP and the vast availability of text data, automated mining of arguments receives increasing attention. A decisive property of arguments is their strength or quality. While there are works on the automated estimation of argument strength, their scope is narrow: they focus on isolated datasets and neglect the interactions with related argument mining tasks, such as argument identification, evidence detection, or emotional appeal. In this work, we close this gap by approaching argument quality estimation from multiple different angles: Grounded on rich results from thorough empirical evaluations, we assess the generalization capabilities of argument quality estimation across diverse domains, the interplay with related argument mining tasks, and the impact of emotions on perceived argument strength. We find that generalization depends on a sufficient representation of different domains in the training part. In zero-shot transfer and multi-task experiments, we reveal that argument quality is among the more challenging tasks but can improve others. Finally, we show that emotions play a minor role in argument quality than is often assumed.

Predicting user intent and detecting the corresponding slots from text are two key problems in Natural Language Understanding (NLU). In the context of zero-shot learning, this task is typically approached by either using representations from pre-trained multilingual transformers such as mBERT, or by machine translating the source data into the known target language and then fine-tuning. Our work focuses on a particular scenario where the target language is unknown during training. To this goal, we propose a novel method to augment the monolingual source data using multilingual code-switching via random translations to enhance a transformer's language neutrality when fine-tuning it for a downstream task. This method also helps discover novel insights on how code-switching with different language families around the world impact the performance on the target language. Experiments on the benchmark dataset of MultiATIS++ yielded an average improvement of +4.2% in accuracy for intent task and +1.8% in F1 for slot task using our method over the state-of-the-art across 8 different languages. Furthermore, we present an application of our method for crisis informatics using a new human-annotated tweet dataset of slot filling in English and Haitian Creole, collected during Haiti earthquake disaster.

Long-term traffic prediction is highly challenging due to the complexity of traffic systems and the constantly changing nature of many impacting factors. In this paper, we focus on the spatio-temporal factors, and propose a graph multi-attention network (GMAN) to predict traffic conditions for time steps ahead at different locations on a road network graph. GMAN adapts an encoder-decoder architecture, where both the encoder and the decoder consist of multiple spatio-temporal attention blocks to model the impact of the spatio-temporal factors on traffic conditions. The encoder encodes the input traffic features and the decoder predicts the output sequence. Between the encoder and the decoder, a transform attention layer is applied to convert the encoded traffic features to generate the sequence representations of future time steps as the input of the decoder. The transform attention mechanism models the direct relationships between historical and future time steps that helps to alleviate the error propagation problem among prediction time steps. Experimental results on two real-world traffic prediction tasks (i.e., traffic volume prediction and traffic speed prediction) demonstrate the superiority of GMAN. In particular, in the 1 hour ahead prediction, GMAN outperforms state-of-the-art methods by up to 4% improvement in MAE measure. The source code is available at https://github.com/zhengchuanpan/GMAN.

Improvements in language model capabilities are often attributed to increasing model size or training data, but in some cases smaller models trained on curated data or with different architectural decisions can outperform larger ones trained on more tokens. What accounts for this? To quantify the impact of these design choices, we meta-analyze 92 open-source pretrained models across a wide array of scales, including state-of-the-art open-weights models as well as less performant models and those with less conventional design decisions. We find that by incorporating features besides model size and number of training tokens, we can achieve a relative 3-28% increase in ability to predict downstream performance compared with using scale alone. Analysis of model design decisions reveal insights into data composition, such as the trade-off between language and code tasks at 15-25\% code, as well as the better performance of some architectural decisions such as choosing rotary over learned embeddings. Broadly, our framework lays a foundation for more systematic investigation of how model development choices shape final capabilities.

Large language models (LLMs) are rapidly increasing in size, with the number of parameters becoming a key factor in the success of many commercial models, such as ChatGPT, Claude, and Bard. Even the recently released publicly accessible models for commercial usage, such as Falcon and Llama2, come equipped with billions of parameters. This significant increase in the number of parameters makes deployment and operation very costly. The remarkable progress in the field of quantization for large neural networks in general and LLMs in particular, has made these models more accessible by enabling them to be deployed on consumer-grade GPUs. Quantized models generally demonstrate comparable performance levels to their unquantized base counterparts. Nonetheless, there exists a notable gap in our comprehensive understanding of how these quantized models respond to hyperparameters, such as temperature, max new tokens, and topk, particularly for next word prediction. The present analysis reveals that nf4 and fp4 are equally proficient 4-bit quantization techniques, characterized by similar attributes such as inference speed, memory consumption, and the quality of generated content. the study identifies nf4 as displaying greater resilience to temperature variations in the case of the llama2 series of models at lower temperature, while fp4 and fp4-dq proves to be a more suitable choice for falcon series of models. It is noteworthy that, in general, 4-bit quantized models of varying sizes exhibit higher sensitivity to temperature in the range of 0.5 to 0.8, unlike their unquantized counterparts. Additionally, int8 quantization is associated with significantly slower inference speeds, whereas unquantized bfloat16 models consistently yield the fastest inference speeds across models of all sizes.

Predicting spatial gene expression from H&E histology offers a scalable and clinically accessible alternative to sequencing, but realizing clinical impact requires models that generalize across cancer types and capture biologically coherent signals. Prior work is often limited to per-cancer settings and variance-based evaluation, leaving functional relevance underexplored. We introduce HistoPrism, an efficient transformer-based architecture for pan-cancer prediction of gene expression from histology. To evaluate biological meaning, we introduce a pathway-level benchmark, shifting assessment from isolated gene-level variance to coherent functional pathways. HistoPrism not only surpasses prior state-of-the-art models on highly variable genes , but also more importantly, achieves substantial gains on pathway-level prediction, demonstrating its ability to recover biologically coherent transcriptomic patterns. With strong pan-cancer generalization and improved efficiency, HistoPrism establishes a new standard for clinically relevant transcriptomic modeling from routinely available histology.

To enhance large language models (LLMs) for chemistry problem solving, several LLM-based agents augmented with tools have been proposed, such as ChemCrow and Coscientist. However, their evaluations are narrow in scope, leaving a large gap in understanding the benefits of tools across diverse chemistry tasks. To bridge this gap, we develop ChemAgent, an enhanced chemistry agent over ChemCrow, and conduct a comprehensive evaluation of its performance on both specialized chemistry tasks and general chemistry questions. Surprisingly, ChemAgent does not consistently outperform its base LLMs without tools. Our error analysis with a chemistry expert suggests that: For specialized chemistry tasks, such as synthesis prediction, we should augment agents with specialized tools; however, for general chemistry questions like those in exams, agents' ability to reason correctly with chemistry knowledge matters more, and tool augmentation does not always help.

This paper describes Tacotron 2, a neural network architecture for speech synthesis directly from text. The system is composed of a recurrent sequence-to-sequence feature prediction network that maps character embeddings to mel-scale spectrograms, followed by a modified WaveNet model acting as a vocoder to synthesize timedomain waveforms from those spectrograms. Our model achieves a mean opinion score (MOS) of 4.53 comparable to a MOS of 4.58 for professionally recorded speech. To validate our design choices, we present ablation studies of key components of our system and evaluate the impact of using mel spectrograms as the input to WaveNet instead of linguistic, duration, and F_0 features. We further demonstrate that using a compact acoustic intermediate representation enables significant simplification of the WaveNet architecture.

Machine learning (ML) algorithms are heavily based on the availability of training data, which, depending on the domain, often includes sensitive information about data providers. This raises critical privacy concerns. Anonymization techniques have emerged as a practical solution to address these issues by generalizing features or suppressing data to make it more difficult to accurately identify individuals. Although recent studies have shown that privacy-enhancing technologies can influence ML predictions across different subgroups, thus affecting fair decision-making, the specific effects of anonymization techniques, such as k-anonymity, ell-diversity, and t-closeness, on ML fairness remain largely unexplored. In this work, we systematically audit the impact of anonymization techniques on ML fairness, evaluating both individual and group fairness. Our quantitative study reveals that anonymization can degrade group fairness metrics by up to fourfold. Conversely, similarity-based individual fairness metrics tend to improve under stronger anonymization, largely as a result of increased input homogeneity. By analyzing varying levels of anonymization across diverse privacy settings and data distributions, this study provides critical insights into the trade-offs between privacy, fairness, and utility, offering actionable guidelines for responsible AI development. Our code is publicly available at: https://github.com/hharcolezi/anonymity-impact-fairness.

Can machines truly think, reason and act in domains like humans? This enduring question continues to shape the pursuit of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). Despite the growing capabilities of models such as GPT-4.5, DeepSeek, Claude 3.5 Sonnet, Phi-4, and Grok 3, which exhibit multimodal fluency and partial reasoning, these systems remain fundamentally limited by their reliance on token-level prediction and lack of grounded agency. This paper offers a cross-disciplinary synthesis of AGI development, spanning artificial intelligence, cognitive neuroscience, psychology, generative models, and agent-based systems. We analyze the architectural and cognitive foundations of general intelligence, highlighting the role of modular reasoning, persistent memory, and multi-agent coordination. In particular, we emphasize the rise of Agentic RAG frameworks that combine retrieval, planning, and dynamic tool use to enable more adaptive behavior. We discuss generalization strategies, including information compression, test-time adaptation, and training-free methods, as critical pathways toward flexible, domain-agnostic intelligence. Vision-Language Models (VLMs) are reexamined not just as perception modules but as evolving interfaces for embodied understanding and collaborative task completion. We also argue that true intelligence arises not from scale alone but from the integration of memory and reasoning: an orchestration of modular, interactive, and self-improving components where compression enables adaptive behavior. Drawing on advances in neurosymbolic systems, reinforcement learning, and cognitive scaffolding, we explore how recent architectures begin to bridge the gap between statistical learning and goal-directed cognition. Finally, we identify key scientific, technical, and ethical challenges on the path to AGI.

Compact convolutional neural networks (CNNs) have witnessed exceptional improvements in performance in recent years. However, they still fail to provide the same predictive power as CNNs with a large number of parameters. The diverse and even abundant features captured by the layers is an important characteristic of these successful CNNs. However, differences in this characteristic between large CNNs and their compact counterparts have rarely been investigated. In compact CNNs, due to the limited number of parameters, abundant features are unlikely to be obtained, and feature diversity becomes an essential characteristic. Diverse features present in the activation maps derived from a data point during model inference may indicate the presence of a set of unique descriptors necessary to distinguish between objects of different classes. In contrast, data points with low feature diversity may not provide a sufficient amount of unique descriptors to make a valid prediction; we refer to them as random predictions. Random predictions can negatively impact the optimization process and harm the final performance. This paper proposes addressing the problem raised by random predictions by reshaping the standard cross-entropy to make it biased toward data points with a limited number of unique descriptive features. Our novel Bias Loss focuses the training on a set of valuable data points and prevents the vast number of samples with poor learning features from misleading the optimization process. Furthermore, to show the importance of diversity, we present a family of SkipNet models whose architectures are brought to boost the number of unique descriptors in the last layers. Our Skipnet-M can achieve 1% higher classification accuracy than MobileNetV3 Large.

Protein language models are a powerful tool for learning protein representations through pre-training on vast protein sequence datasets. However, traditional protein language models lack explicit structural supervision, despite its relevance to protein function. To address this issue, we introduce the integration of remote homology detection to distill structural information into protein language models without requiring explicit protein structures as input. We evaluate the impact of this structure-informed training on downstream protein function prediction tasks. Experimental results reveal consistent improvements in function annotation accuracy for EC number and GO term prediction. Performance on mutant datasets, however, varies based on the relationship between targeted properties and protein structures. This underscores the importance of considering this relationship when applying structure-aware training to protein function prediction tasks. Code and model weights are available at https://github.com/DeepGraphLearning/esm-s.

An algorithm to estimate the evolution of learning curves on the whole of a training data base, based on the results obtained from a portion and using a functional strategy, is introduced. We approximate iteratively the sought value at the desired time, independently of the learning technique used and once a point in the process, called prediction level, has been passed. The proposal proves to be formally correct with respect to our working hypotheses and includes a reliable proximity condition. This allows the user to fix a convergence threshold with respect to the accuracy finally achievable, which extends the concept of stopping criterion and seems to be effective even in the presence of distorting observations. Our aim is to evaluate the training effort, supporting decision making in order to reduce the need for both human and computational resources during the learning process. The proposal is of interest in at least three operational procedures. The first is the anticipation of accuracy gain, with the purpose of measuring how much work is needed to achieve a certain degree of performance. The second relates the comparison of efficiency between systems at training time, with the objective of completing this task only for the one that best suits our requirements. The prediction of accuracy is also a valuable item of information for customizing systems, since we can estimate in advance the impact of settings on both the performance and the development costs. Using the generation of part-of-speech taggers as an example application, the experimental results are consistent with our expectations.

The study of dreams has been central to understanding human (un)consciousness, cognition, and culture for centuries. Analyzing dreams quantitatively depends on labor-intensive, manual annotation of dream narratives. We automate this process through a natural language sequence-to-sequence generation framework. This paper presents the first study on character and emotion detection in the English portion of the open DreamBank corpus of dream narratives. Our results show that language models can effectively address this complex task. To get insight into prediction performance, we evaluate the impact of model size, prediction order of characters, and the consideration of proper names and character traits. We compare our approach with a large language model using in-context learning. Our supervised models perform better while having 28 times fewer parameters. Our model and its generated annotations are made publicly available.

Most papers caution against using predictive models for disease stratification based on unselected radiomic features, as these features are affected by contouring variability. Instead, they advocate for the use of the Intraclass Correlation Coefficient (ICC) as a measure of stability for feature selection. However, the direct effect of segmentation variability on the predictive models is rarely studied. This study investigates the impact of segmentation variability on feature stability and predictive performance in radiomics-based prediction of Triple-Negative Breast Cancer (TNBC) subtype using Magnetic Resonance Imaging. A total of 244 images from the Duke dataset were used, with segmentation variability introduced through modifications of manual segmentations. For each mask, explainable radiomic features were selected using the Shapley Additive exPlanations method and used to train logistic regression models. Feature stability across segmentations was assessed via ICC, Pearson's correlation, and reliability scores quantifying the relationship between feature stability and segmentation variability. Results indicate that segmentation accuracy does not significantly impact predictive performance. While incorporating peritumoral information may reduce feature reproducibility, it does not diminish feature predictive capability. Moreover, feature selection in predictive models is not inherently tied to feature stability with respect to segmentation, suggesting that an overreliance on ICC or reliability scores for feature selection might exclude valuable predictive features.

Warm-sector heavy rainfall often occurs along the coast of South China, and it is usually localized and long-lasting, making it challenging to predict. High-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are increasingly used to better resolve topographic features and forecast such high-impact weather events. However, when the grid spacing becomes comparable to the length scales of convection, known as the gray zone, the turbulent eddies in the atmospheric boundary layer are only partially resolved and parameterized to some extent. Whether using a convection parameterization (CP) scheme in the gray zone remains controversial. Scale-aware CP schemes are developed to enhance the representation of convective transport within the gray zone. The multi-scale Kain-Fritsch (MSKF) scheme includes modifications that allow for its effective implementation at a grid resolution as high as 2 km. In recent years, there has been an increasing application of machine learning (ML) models to various domains of atmospheric sciences, including the replacement of physical parameterizations with ML models. This work proposes a multi-output bidirectional long short-term memory (Bi-LSTM) model as a replace the scale-aware MSKF CP scheme. The Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model is used to generate training and testing data over South China at a horizontal resolution of 5 km. Furthermore, the WRF model is coupled with the ML based CP scheme and compared with WRF simulations with original MSKF scheme. The results demonstrate that the Bi-LSTM model can achieve high accuracy, indicating the potential use of ML models to substitute the MSKF scheme in the gray zone.

While large language models (LLMs) with Chain-of-Thought (CoT) reasoning excel in mathematics and coding, their potential for systematic reasoning in chemistry, a domain demanding rigorous structural analysis for real-world tasks like drug design and reaction engineering, remains untapped. Current benchmarks focus on simple knowledge retrieval, neglecting step-by-step reasoning required for complex tasks such as molecular optimization and reaction prediction. To address this, we introduce ChemCoTBench, a reasoning framework that bridges molecular structure understanding with arithmetic-inspired operations, including addition, deletion, and substitution, to formalize chemical problem-solving into transparent, step-by-step workflows. By treating molecular transformations as modular "chemical operations", the framework enables slow-thinking reasoning, mirroring the logic of mathematical proofs while grounding solutions in real-world chemical constraints. We evaluate models on two high-impact tasks: Molecular Property Optimization and Chemical Reaction Prediction. These tasks mirror real-world challenges while providing structured evaluability. By providing annotated datasets, a reasoning taxonomy, and baseline evaluations, ChemCoTBench bridges the gap between abstract reasoning methods and practical chemical discovery, establishing a foundation for advancing LLMs as tools for AI-driven scientific innovation.

Floods cause extensive global damage annually, making effective monitoring essential. While satellite observations have proven invaluable for flood detection and tracking, comprehensive global flood datasets spanning extended time periods remain scarce. In this study, we introduce a novel deep learning flood detection model that leverages the cloud-penetrating capabilities of Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) satellite imagery, enabling consistent flood extent mapping in any weather condition. By applying this model to nearly 10 years of SAR data, we create a unique, longitudinal global flood extent dataset with predictions unaffected by cloud coverage, offering comprehensive and consistent insights into historically flood-prone areas over the past decade. We use our model predictions to identify historically flood-prone areas in Ethiopia and demonstrate real-time disaster response capabilities during the May 2024 floods in Kenya. Additionally, our longitudinal analysis reveals potential increasing trends in global flood extent over time, although further validation is required to explore links to climate change. To maximize impact, we provide public access to both our model predictions and a code repository, empowering researchers and practitioners worldwide to advance flood monitoring and enhance disaster response strategies.

Real-world Knowledge Graphs (KGs) often suffer from incompleteness, which limits their potential performance. Knowledge Graph Completion (KGC) techniques aim to address this issue. However, traditional KGC methods are computationally intensive and impractical for large-scale KGs, necessitating the learning of dense node embeddings and computing pairwise distances. Generative transformer-based language models (e.g., T5 and recent KGT5) offer a promising solution as they can predict the tail nodes directly. In this study, we propose to include node neighborhoods as additional information to improve KGC methods based on language models. We examine the effects of this imputation and show that, on both inductive and transductive Wikidata subsets, our method outperforms KGT5 and conventional KGC approaches. We also provide an extensive analysis of the impact of neighborhood on model prediction and show its importance. Furthermore, we point the way to significantly improve KGC through more effective neighborhood selection.

Knowledge distillation aims to train a compact student network using soft supervision from a larger teacher network and hard supervision from ground truths. However, determining an optimal knowledge fusion ratio that balances these supervisory signals remains challenging. Prior methods generally resort to a constant or heuristic-based fusion ratio, which often falls short of a proper balance. In this study, we introduce a novel adaptive method for learning a sample-wise knowledge fusion ratio, exploiting both the correctness of teacher and student, as well as how well the student mimics the teacher on each sample. Our method naturally leads to the intra-sample trilateral geometric relations among the student prediction (S), teacher prediction (T), and ground truth (G). To counterbalance the impact of outliers, we further extend to the inter-sample relations, incorporating the teacher's global average prediction T for samples within the same class. A simple neural network then learns the implicit mapping from the intra- and inter-sample relations to an adaptive, sample-wise knowledge fusion ratio in a bilevel-optimization manner. Our approach provides a simple, practical, and adaptable solution for knowledge distillation that can be employed across various architectures and model sizes. Extensive experiments demonstrate consistent improvements over other loss re-weighting methods on image classification, attack detection, and click-through rate prediction.

Gravitational lensing offers a powerful probe into the properties of dark matter and is crucial to infer cosmological parameters. The Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) is predicted to find O(10^5) gravitational lenses over the next decade, demanding automated classifiers. In this work, we introduce GraViT, a PyTorch pipeline for gravitational lens detection that leverages extensive pretraining of state-of-the-art Vision Transformer (ViT) models and MLP-Mixer. We assess the impact of transfer learning on classification performance by examining data quality (source and sample size), model architecture (selection and fine-tuning), training strategies (augmentation, normalization, and optimization), and ensemble predictions. This study reproduces the experiments in a previous systematic comparison of neural networks and provides insights into the detectability of strong gravitational lenses on that common test sample. We fine-tune ten architectures using datasets from HOLISMOKES VI and SuGOHI X, and benchmark them against convolutional baselines, discussing complexity and inference-time analysis.

Text-based foundation models have become an important part of scientific discovery, with molecular foundation models accelerating advancements in material science and molecular design.However, existing models are constrained by closed-vocabulary tokenizers that capture only a fraction of molecular space. In this work, we systematically evaluate 34 tokenizers, including 19 chemistry-specific ones, and reveal significant gaps in their coverage of the SMILES molecular representation. To assess the impact of tokenizer choice, we introduce n-gram language models as a low-cost proxy and validate their effectiveness by pretraining and finetuning 18 RoBERTa-style encoders for molecular property prediction. To overcome the limitations of existing tokenizers, we propose two new tokenizers -- Smirk and Smirk-GPE -- with full coverage of the OpenSMILES specification. The proposed tokenizers systematically integrate nuclear, electronic, and geometric degrees of freedom; facilitating applications in pharmacology, agriculture, biology, and energy storage. Our results highlight the need for open-vocabulary modeling and chemically diverse benchmarks in cheminformatics.

Recent studies introduced effective compression techniques for Large Language Models (LLMs) via post-training quantization or low-bit weight representation. Although quantized weights offer storage efficiency and allow for faster inference, existing works have indicated that quantization might compromise performance and exacerbate biases in LLMs. This study investigates the confidence and calibration of quantized models, considering factors such as language model type and scale as contributors to quantization loss. Firstly, we reveal that quantization with GPTQ to 4-bit results in a decrease in confidence regarding true labels, with varying impacts observed among different language models. Secondly, we observe fluctuations in the impact on confidence across different scales. Finally, we propose an explanation for quantization loss based on confidence levels, indicating that quantization disproportionately affects samples where the full model exhibited low confidence levels in the first place.

The analysis of emotions expressed in text has numerous applications. In contrast to categorical analysis, focused on classifying emotions according to a pre-defined set of common classes, dimensional approaches can offer a more nuanced way to distinguish between different emotions. Still, dimensional methods have been less studied in the literature. Considering a valence-arousal dimensional space, this work assesses the use of pre-trained Transformers to predict these two dimensions on a continuous scale, with input texts from multiple languages and domains. We specifically combined multiple annotated datasets from previous studies, corresponding to either emotional lexica or short text documents, and evaluated models of multiple sizes and trained under different settings. Our results show that model size can have a significant impact on the quality of predictions, and that by fine-tuning a large model we can confidently predict valence and arousal in multiple languages. We make available the code, models, and supporting data.

The complex nature of big biological systems pushed some scientists to classify its understanding under the inconceivable missions. Different leveled challenges complicated this task, one of is the prediction of a protein's function. In recent years, significant progress has been made in this field through the development of various machine learning approaches. However, most existing methods formulate the task as a multi-classification problem, i.e assigning predefined labels to proteins. In this work, we propose a novel approach, Prot2Text, which predicts a protein function's in a free text style, moving beyond the conventional binary or categorical classifications. By combining Graph Neural Networks(GNNs) and Large Language Models(LLMs), in an encoder-decoder framework, our model effectively integrates diverse data types including proteins' sequences, structures, and textual annotations. This multimodal approach allows for a holistic representation of proteins' functions, enabling the generation of detailed and accurate descriptions. To evaluate our model, we extracted a multimodal protein dataset from SwissProt, and demonstrate empirically the effectiveness of Prot2Text. These results highlight the transformative impact of multimodal models, specifically the fusion of GNNs and LLMs, empowering researchers with powerful tools for more accurate prediction of proteins' functions. The code, the models and a demo will be publicly released.

Machine learning models, particularly deep neural networks, have demonstrated strong performance in classifying complex time series data. However, their black-box nature limits trust and adoption, especially in high-stakes domains such as healthcare. To address this challenge, we introduce UniCoMTE, a model-agnostic framework for generating counterfactual explanations for multivariate time series classifiers. The framework identifies temporal features that most heavily influence a model's prediction by modifying the input sample and assessing its impact on the model's prediction. UniCoMTE is compatible with a wide range of model architectures and operates directly on raw time series inputs. In this study, we evaluate UniCoMTE's explanations on a time series ECG classifier. We quantify explanation quality by comparing our explanations' comprehensibility to comprehensibility of established techniques (LIME and SHAP) and assessing their generalizability to similar samples. Furthermore, clinical utility is assessed through a questionnaire completed by medical experts who review counterfactual explanations presented alongside original ECG samples. Results show that our approach produces concise, stable, and human-aligned explanations that outperform existing methods in both clarity and applicability. By linking model predictions to meaningful signal patterns, the framework advances the interpretability of deep learning models for real-world time series applications.

Personalizing large language models (LLMs) for individual users has become increasingly important as they are progressively integrated into real-world applications to support users' daily lives. However, existing personalization approaches often fail to distinguish which components of model predictions and training data truly reflect user preferences, leading to superficial personalization alignment. In this paper, we introduce NextQuill, a novel LLM personalization alignment framework grounded in causal preference modeling. We approach personalization from a causal perspective, treating both model predictions and ground-truth data generation as outcomes influenced by user preferences, along with other factors. We define the true preference effect as the causal impact of user history (which reflects preferences) on each token prediction or data generation instance, estimated through causal intervention techniques. Building on this insight, NextQuill introduces two complementary alignment strategies: (1) aligning model-internal causal preference effects on predictions with those reflected in ground-truth data, rather than indiscriminately fitting predictions, and (2) focusing on fitting preference-bearing tokens identified via ground-truth data preference effects, rather than treating all tokens uniformly. By integrating these strategies, NextQuill shifts the alignment process toward learning from causal preference effects, facilitating more effective and personalized adaptation. Experiments across multiple personalization benchmarks demonstrate that NextQuill significantly improves personalization quality, offering a principled, causal foundation for LLM personalization. Our codes are available on https://github.com/juntaoyou/NextQuill.

Forecasting multiple future events within a given time horizon is essential for applications in finance, retail, social networks, and healthcare. Marked Temporal Point Processes (MTPP) provide a principled framework to model both the timing and labels of events. However, most existing research focuses on predicting only the next event, leaving long-horizon forecasting largely underexplored. To address this gap, we introduce HoTPP, the first benchmark specifically designed to rigorously evaluate long-horizon predictions. We identify shortcomings in widely used evaluation metrics, propose a theoretically grounded T-mAP metric, present strong statistical baselines, and offer efficient implementations of popular models. Our empirical results demonstrate that modern MTPP approaches often underperform simple statistical baselines. Furthermore, we analyze the diversity of predicted sequences and find that most methods exhibit mode collapse. Finally, we analyze the impact of autoregression and intensity-based losses on prediction quality, and outline promising directions for future research. The HoTPP source code, hyperparameters, and full evaluation results are available at GitHub.

Modern machine learning models are sensitive to the manipulation of both the training data (poisoning attacks) and inference data (adversarial examples). Recognizing this issue, the community has developed many empirical defenses against both attacks and, more recently, provable certification methods against inference-time attacks. However, such guarantees are still largely lacking for training-time attacks. In this work, we present FullCert, the first end-to-end certifier with sound, deterministic bounds, which proves robustness against both training-time and inference-time attacks. We first bound all possible perturbations an adversary can make to the training data under the considered threat model. Using these constraints, we bound the perturbations' influence on the model's parameters. Finally, we bound the impact of these parameter changes on the model's prediction, resulting in joint robustness guarantees against poisoning and adversarial examples. To facilitate this novel certification paradigm, we combine our theoretical work with a new open-source library BoundFlow, which enables model training on bounded datasets. We experimentally demonstrate FullCert's feasibility on two different datasets.

In-context learning (ICL) is a critical emerging capability of large language models (LLMs), enabling few-shot learning during inference by including a few demonstrations (demos) in the prompt. However, it has been found that ICL's performance can be sensitive to the choices of demos and their order. This paper investigates an unexplored new positional bias of ICL for the first time: we observe that the predictions and accuracy can drift drastically when the positions of demos, the system prompt, and the user message in LLM input are varied. We refer to this bias as DEMOS' POSITION IN PROMPT (DPP) bias. We design a systematic evaluation pipeline to study this type of positional bias across classification, question answering, summarization, and reasoning tasks. We introduce two metrics, ACCURACY-CHANGE and PREDICTION-CHANGE, to quantify net gains and output volatility induced by changes in the demos' position. Extensive experiments on ten LLMs from four open-source model families (QWEN, LLAMA3, MISTRAL, COHERE) verify that the bias significantly affects their accuracy and predictions: placing demos at the start of the prompt yields the most stable and accurate outputs with gains of up to +6 points. In contrast, placing demos at the end of the user message flips over 30\% of predictions without improving correctness on QA tasks. Smaller models are most affected by this sensitivity, though even large models remain marginally affected on complex tasks.

Vision-language models such as CLIP have shown great impact on diverse downstream tasks for zero-shot or label-free predictions. However, when it comes to low-level vision such as image restoration their performance deteriorates dramatically due to corrupted inputs. In this paper, we present a degradation-aware vision-language model (DA-CLIP) to better transfer pretrained vision-language models to low-level vision tasks as a universal framework for image restoration. More specifically, DA-CLIP trains an additional controller that adapts the fixed CLIP image encoder to predict high-quality feature embeddings. By integrating the embedding into an image restoration network via cross-attention, we are able to pilot the model to learn a high-fidelity image reconstruction. The controller itself will also output a degradation feature that matches the real corruptions of the input, yielding a natural classifier for different degradation types. In addition, we construct a mixed degradation dataset with synthetic captions for DA-CLIP training. Our approach advances state-of-the-art performance on both degradation-specific and unified image restoration tasks, showing a promising direction of prompting image restoration with large-scale pretrained vision-language models. Our code is available at https://github.com/Algolzw/daclip-uir.

We propose a federated averaging Langevin algorithm (FA-LD) for uncertainty quantification and mean predictions with distributed clients. In particular, we generalize beyond normal posterior distributions and consider a general class of models. We develop theoretical guarantees for FA-LD for strongly log-concave distributions with non-i.i.d data and study how the injected noise and the stochastic-gradient noise, the heterogeneity of data, and the varying learning rates affect the convergence. Such an analysis sheds light on the optimal choice of local updates to minimize communication costs. Important to our approach is that the communication efficiency does not deteriorate with the injected noise in the Langevin algorithms. In addition, we examine in our FA-LD algorithm both independent and correlated noise used over different clients. We observe there is a trade-off between the pairs among communication, accuracy, and data privacy. As local devices may become inactive in federated networks, we also show convergence results based on different averaging schemes where only partial device updates are available. In such a case, we discover an additional bias that does not decay to zero.

We introduce a new dataset named WikiVitals which contains a large graph of 48k mutually referred Wikipedia articles classified into 32 categories and connected by 2.3M edges. Our aim is to rigorously evaluate the contributions of three distinct sources of information to the label prediction in a semi-supervised node classification setting, namely the content of the articles, their connections with each other and the correlations among their labels. We perform this evaluation using a Graph Markov Neural Network which provides a theoretically principled model for this task and we conduct a detailed evaluation of the contributions of each sources of information using a clear separation of model selection and model assessment. One interesting observation is that including the effect of label dependencies is more relevant for sparse train sets than it is for dense train sets.

Reducing traffic accidents is an important public safety challenge. However, the majority of studies on traffic accident analysis and prediction have used small-scale datasets with limited coverage, which limits their impact and applicability; and existing large-scale datasets are either private, old, or do not include important contextual information such as environmental stimuli (weather, points-of-interest, etc.). In order to help the research community address these shortcomings we have - through a comprehensive process of data collection, integration, and augmentation - created a large-scale publicly available database of accident information named US-Accidents. US-Accidents currently contains data about 2.25 million instances of traffic accidents that took place within the contiguous United States, and over the last three years. Each accident record consists of a variety of intrinsic and contextual attributes such as location, time, natural language description, weather, period-of-day, and points-of-interest. We present this dataset in this paper, along with a wide range of insights gleaned from this dataset with respect to the spatiotemporal characteristics of accidents. The dataset is publicly available at https://smoosavi.org/datasets/us_accidents.

Recent transformer-based models for 3D Human Mesh Recovery (HMR) have achieved strong performance but often suffer from high computational cost and complexity due to deep transformer architectures and redundant tokens. In this paper, we introduce two HMR-specific merging strategies: Error-Constrained Layer Merging (ECLM) and Mask-guided Token Merging (Mask-ToMe). ECLM selectively merges transformer layers that have minimal impact on the Mean Per Joint Position Error (MPJPE), while Mask-ToMe focuses on merging background tokens that contribute little to the final prediction. To further address the potential performance drop caused by merging, we propose a diffusion-based decoder that incorporates temporal context and leverages pose priors learned from large-scale motion capture datasets. Experiments across multiple benchmarks demonstrate that our method achieves up to 2.3x speed-up while slightly improving performance over the baseline.

No experimental test precludes the possibility that the dark matter experiences forces beyond general relativity -- in fact, a variety of cosmic microwave background observations suggest greater late-time structure than predicted in the standard Lambda cold dark matter model. We show that minimal models of scalar-mediated forces between dark matter particles do not enhance the growth of unbiased tracers of structure: weak lensing observables depend on the total density perturbation, for which the enhanced growth of the density contrast in the matter era is cancelled by the more rapid dilution of the background dark matter density. Moreover, the same background-level effects imply that scenarios compatible with CMB temperature and polarization anisotropies in fact suppress structure growth, as fixing the distance to last scattering requires a substantially increased density of dark energy. Though massive mediators undo these effects upon oscillating, they suppress structure even further because their gravitational impact as nonclustering subcomponents of matter outweighs the enhanced clustering strength of dark matter. We support these findings with analytic insight that clarifies the physical impact of dark forces and explains how primary CMB measurements calibrate the model's predictions for low-redshift observables. We discuss implications for neutrino mass limits and other cosmological anomalies, and we also consider how nonminimal extensions of the model might be engineered to enhance structure.

When training data are collected from human annotators, the design of the annotation instrument, the instructions given to annotators, the characteristics of the annotators, and their interactions can impact training data. This study demonstrates that design choices made when creating an annotation instrument also impact the models trained on the resulting annotations. We introduce the term annotation sensitivity to refer to the impact of annotation data collection methods on the annotations themselves and on downstream model performance and predictions. We collect annotations of hate speech and offensive language in five experimental conditions of an annotation instrument, randomly assigning annotators to conditions. We then fine-tune BERT models on each of the five resulting datasets and evaluate model performance on a holdout portion of each condition. We find considerable differences between the conditions for 1) the share of hate speech/offensive language annotations, 2) model performance, 3) model predictions, and 4) model learning curves. Our results emphasize the crucial role played by the annotation instrument which has received little attention in the machine learning literature. We call for additional research into how and why the instrument impacts the annotations to inform the development of best practices in instrument design.

We present a unified representation for actionable spatial perception: 3D Dynamic Scene Graphs. Scene graphs are directed graphs where nodes represent entities in the scene (e.g. objects, walls, rooms), and edges represent relations (e.g. inclusion, adjacency) among nodes. Dynamic scene graphs (DSGs) extend this notion to represent dynamic scenes with moving agents (e.g. humans, robots), and to include actionable information that supports planning and decision-making (e.g. spatio-temporal relations, topology at different levels of abstraction). Our second contribution is to provide the first fully automatic Spatial PerceptIon eNgine(SPIN) to build a DSG from visual-inertial data. We integrate state-of-the-art techniques for object and human detection and pose estimation, and we describe how to robustly infer object, robot, and human nodes in crowded scenes. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first paper that reconciles visual-inertial SLAM and dense human mesh tracking. Moreover, we provide algorithms to obtain hierarchical representations of indoor environments (e.g. places, structures, rooms) and their relations. Our third contribution is to demonstrate the proposed spatial perception engine in a photo-realistic Unity-based simulator, where we assess its robustness and expressiveness. Finally, we discuss the implications of our proposal on modern robotics applications. 3D Dynamic Scene Graphs can have a profound impact on planning and decision-making, human-robot interaction, long-term autonomy, and scene prediction. A video abstract is available at https://youtu.be/SWbofjhyPzI

As machine learning algorithms are increasingly applied to high impact yet high risk tasks, such as medical diagnosis or autonomous driving, it is critical that researchers can explain how such algorithms arrived at their predictions. In recent years, a number of image saliency methods have been developed to summarize where highly complex neural networks "look" in an image for evidence for their predictions. However, these techniques are limited by their heuristic nature and architectural constraints. In this paper, we make two main contributions: First, we propose a general framework for learning different kinds of explanations for any black box algorithm. Second, we specialise the framework to find the part of an image most responsible for a classifier decision. Unlike previous works, our method is model-agnostic and testable because it is grounded in explicit and interpretable image perturbations.

Diabetic retinopathy (DR) is a leading cause of vision loss in working-age adults. While screening reduces the risk of blindness, traditional imaging is often costly and inaccessible. Artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms present a scalable diagnostic solution, but concerns regarding fairness and generalization persist. This work evaluates the fairness and performance of image-trained models in DR prediction, as well as the impact of disentanglement as a bias mitigation technique, using the diverse mBRSET fundus dataset. Three models, ConvNeXt V2, DINOv2, and Swin V2, were trained on macula images to predict DR and sensitive attributes (SAs) (e.g., age and gender/sex). Fairness was assessed between subgroups of SAs, and disentanglement was applied to reduce bias. All models achieved high DR prediction performance in diagnosing (up to 94% AUROC) and could reasonably predict age and gender/sex (91% and 77% AUROC, respectively). Fairness assessment suggests disparities, such as a 10% AUROC gap between age groups in DINOv2. Disentangling SAs from DR prediction had varying results, depending on the model selected. Disentanglement improved DINOv2 performance (2% AUROC gain), but led to performance drops in ConvNeXt V2 and Swin V2 (7% and 3%, respectively). These findings highlight the complexity of disentangling fine-grained features in fundus imaging and emphasize the importance of fairness in medical imaging AI to ensure equitable and reliable healthcare solutions.

In this paper, we explore the impact of augmenting pre-trained Encoder-Decoder models, specifically T5, with linguistic knowledge for the prediction of a target task. In particular, we investigate whether fine-tuning a T5 model on an intermediate task that predicts structural linguistic properties of sentences modifies its performance in the target task of predicting sentence-level complexity. Our study encompasses diverse experiments conducted on Italian and English datasets, employing both monolingual and multilingual T5 models at various sizes. Results obtained for both languages and in cross-lingual configurations show that linguistically motivated intermediate fine-tuning has generally a positive impact on target task performance, especially when applied to smaller models and in scenarios with limited data availability.

Previous real-time MRI (rtMRI)-based speech synthesis models depend heavily on noisy ground-truth speech. Applying loss directly over ground truth mel-spectrograms entangles speech content with MRI noise, resulting in poor intelligibility. We introduce a novel approach that adapts the multi-modal self-supervised AV-HuBERT model for text prediction from rtMRI and incorporates a new flow-based duration predictor for speaker-specific alignment. The predicted text and durations are then used by a speech decoder to synthesize aligned speech in any novel voice. We conduct thorough experiments on two datasets and demonstrate our method's generalization ability to unseen speakers. We assess our framework's performance by masking parts of the rtMRI video to evaluate the impact of different articulators on text prediction. Our method achieves a 15.18% Word Error Rate (WER) on the USC-TIMIT MRI corpus, marking a huge improvement over the current state-of-the-art. Speech samples are available at https://mri2speech.github.io/MRI2Speech/

Vision-Language Model (VLM) have gained widespread adoption in Open-Vocabulary (OV) object detection and segmentation tasks. Despite they have shown promise on OV-related tasks, their effectiveness in conventional vision tasks has thus far been unevaluated. In this work, we present the systematic review of VLM-based detection and segmentation, view VLM as the foundational model and conduct comprehensive evaluations across multiple downstream tasks for the first time: 1) The evaluation spans eight detection scenarios (closed-set detection, domain adaptation, crowded objects, etc.) and eight segmentation scenarios (few-shot, open-world, small object, etc.), revealing distinct performance advantages and limitations of various VLM architectures across tasks. 2) As for detection tasks, we evaluate VLMs under three finetuning granularities: zero prediction, visual fine-tuning, and text prompt, and further analyze how different finetuning strategies impact performance under varied task. 3) Based on empirical findings, we provide in-depth analysis of the correlations between task characteristics, model architectures, and training methodologies, offering insights for future VLM design. 4) We believe that this work shall be valuable to the pattern recognition experts working in the fields of computer vision, multimodal learning, and vision foundation models by introducing them to the problem, and familiarizing them with the current status of the progress while providing promising directions for future research. A project associated with this review and evaluation has been created at https://github.com/better-chao/perceptual_abilities_evaluation.

Large language models (LLM) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in various biomedical natural language processing (NLP) tasks, leveraging the demonstration within the input context to adapt to new tasks. However, LLM is sensitive to the selection of demonstrations. To address the hallucination issue inherent in LLM, retrieval-augmented LLM (RAL) offers a solution by retrieving pertinent information from an established database. Nonetheless, existing research work lacks rigorous evaluation of the impact of retrieval-augmented large language models on different biomedical NLP tasks. This deficiency makes it challenging to ascertain the capabilities of RAL within the biomedical domain. Moreover, the outputs from RAL are affected by retrieving the unlabeled, counterfactual, or diverse knowledge that is not well studied in the biomedical domain. However, such knowledge is common in the real world. Finally, exploring the self-awareness ability is also crucial for the RAL system. So, in this paper, we systematically investigate the impact of RALs on 5 different biomedical tasks (triple extraction, link prediction, classification, question answering, and natural language inference). We analyze the performance of RALs in four fundamental abilities, including unlabeled robustness, counterfactual robustness, diverse robustness, and negative awareness. To this end, we proposed an evaluation framework to assess the RALs' performance on different biomedical NLP tasks and establish four different testbeds based on the aforementioned fundamental abilities. Then, we evaluate 3 representative LLMs with 3 different retrievers on 5 tasks over 9 datasets.

Research at the intersection of personality psychology, computer science, and linguistics has recently focused increasingly on modeling and predicting personality from language use. We report two major improvements in predicting personality traits from text data: (1) to our knowledge, the most comprehensive set of theory-based psycholinguistic features and (2) hybrid models that integrate a pre-trained Transformer Language Model BERT and Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (BLSTM) networks trained on within-text distributions ('text contours') of psycholinguistic features. We experiment with BLSTM models (with and without Attention) and with two techniques for applying pre-trained language representations from the transformer model - 'feature-based' and 'fine-tuning'. We evaluate the performance of the models we built on two benchmark datasets that target the two dominant theoretical models of personality: the Big Five Essay dataset and the MBTI Kaggle dataset. Our results are encouraging as our models outperform existing work on the same datasets. More specifically, our models achieve improvement in classification accuracy by 2.9% on the Essay dataset and 8.28% on the Kaggle MBTI dataset. In addition, we perform ablation experiments to quantify the impact of different categories of psycholinguistic features in the respective personality prediction models.

In Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs), encoding information in a suboptimal or erroneous way can impact the quality of representations based on later elements in the sequence and subsequently lead to wrong predictions and a worse model performance. In humans, challenging cases like garden path sentences (an instance of this being the infamous "The horse raced past the barn fell") can lead their language understanding astray. However, they are still able to correct their representation accordingly and recover when new information is encountered. Inspired by this, I propose an augmentation to standard RNNs in form of a gradient-based correction mechanism: This way I hope to enable such models to dynamically adapt their inner representation of a sentence, adding a way to correct deviations as soon as they occur. This could therefore lead to more robust models using more flexible representations, even during inference time. I conduct different experiments in the context of language modeling, where the impact of using such a mechanism is examined in detail. To this end, I look at modifications based on different kinds of time-dependent error signals and how they influence the model performance. Furthermore, this work contains a study of the model's confidence in its predictions during training and for challenging test samples and the effect of the manipulation thereof. Lastly, I also study the difference in behavior of these novel models compared to a standard LSTM baseline and investigate error cases in detail to identify points of future research. I show that while the proposed approach comes with promising theoretical guarantees and an appealing intuition, it is only able to produce minor improvements over the baseline due to challenges in its practical application and the efficacy of the tested model variants.

HeH^+ was the first heteronuclear molecule to form in the metal-free Universe after the Big Bang. The molecule gained significant attention following its first circumstellar detection in the young and dense planetary nebula NGC 7027. We target some hydride ions associated with the noble gases (HeH^+, ArH^+, and NeH^+) to investigate their formation in harsh environments like the nova outburst region. We use a photoionization modeling (based on previously published best-fit physical parameters) of the moderately fast ONe type nova, QU Vulpeculae 1984, and the CO type novae, RS Ophiuchi and V1716 Scorpii. Our steady-state modeling reveals a convincing amount of HeH^+, especially in the dense clump of RS Ophiuchi and V1716 Scorpii. The calculated upper limit on the surface brightness of HeH^+ transitions suggests that the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) could detect some of them, particularly in sources like RS Ophiuchi and V1716 Scorpii, which have similar physical and chemical conditions and evolution. It must be clearly noted that the sources studied are used as templates, and not as targets for observations. The detection of these lines could be useful for determining the physical conditions in similar types of systems and for validating our predictions based on new electron-impact ro-vibrational collisional data at temperatures of up to 20,000 K.

Contrastive Language-Image Pretraining (CLIP) stands out as a prominent method for image representation learning. Various neural architectures, spanning Transformer-based models like Vision Transformers (ViTs) to Convolutional Networks (ConvNets) like ResNets, are trained with CLIP and serve as universal backbones across diverse vision tasks. Despite utilizing the same data and training objectives, the effectiveness of representations learned by these architectures raises a critical question. Our investigation explores the differences in CLIP performance among these backbone architectures, revealing significant disparities in their classifications. Notably, normalizing these representations results in substantial performance variations. Our findings showcase a remarkable possible synergy between backbone predictions that could reach an improvement of over 20% through informed selection of the appropriate backbone. Moreover, we propose a simple, yet effective approach to combine predictions from multiple backbones, leading to a notable performance boost of up to 6.34\%. We will release the code for reproducing the results.

Automatic evaluation of machine translation (MT) is a critical tool driving the rapid iterative development of MT systems. While considerable progress has been made on estimating a single scalar quality score, current metrics lack the informativeness of more detailed schemes that annotate individual errors, such as Multidimensional Quality Metrics (MQM). In this paper, we help fill this gap by proposing AutoMQM, a prompting technique which leverages the reasoning and in-context learning capabilities of large language models (LLMs) and asks them to identify and categorize errors in translations. We start by evaluating recent LLMs, such as PaLM and PaLM-2, through simple score prediction prompting, and we study the impact of labeled data through in-context learning and finetuning. We then evaluate AutoMQM with PaLM-2 models, and we find that it improves performance compared to just prompting for scores (with particularly large gains for larger models) while providing interpretability through error spans that align with human annotations.

We study the relative effects of data augmentations, pretraining algorithms, and model architectures in Self-Supervised Learning (SSL). While the recent literature in this space leaves the impression that the pretraining algorithm is of critical importance to performance, understanding its effect is complicated by the difficulty in making objective and direct comparisons between methods. We propose a new framework which unifies many seemingly disparate SSL methods into a single shared template. Using this framework, we identify aspects in which methods differ and observe that in addition to changing the pretraining algorithm, many works also use new data augmentations or more powerful model architectures. We compare several popular SSL methods using our framework and find that many algorithmic additions, such as prediction networks or new losses, have a minor impact on downstream task performance (often less than 1%), while enhanced augmentation techniques offer more significant performance improvements (2-4%). Our findings challenge the premise that SSL is being driven primarily by algorithmic improvements, and suggest instead a bitter lesson for SSL: that augmentation diversity and data / model scale are more critical contributors to recent advances in self-supervised learning.

Estimating the transferability of publicly available pretrained models to a target task has assumed an important place for transfer learning tasks in recent years. Existing efforts propose metrics that allow a user to choose one model from a pool of pre-trained models without having to fine-tune each model individually and identify one explicitly. With the growth in the number of available pre-trained models and the popularity of model ensembles, it also becomes essential to study the transferability of multiple-source models for a given target task. The few existing efforts study transferability in such multi-source ensemble settings using just the outputs of the classification layer and neglect possible domain or task mismatch. Moreover, they overlook the most important factor while selecting the source models, viz., the cohesiveness factor between them, which can impact the performance and confidence in the prediction of the ensemble. To address these gaps, we propose a novel Optimal tranSport-based suBmOdular tRaNsferability metric (OSBORN) to estimate the transferability of an ensemble of models to a downstream task. OSBORN collectively accounts for image domain difference, task difference, and cohesiveness of models in the ensemble to provide reliable estimates of transferability. We gauge the performance of OSBORN on both image classification and semantic segmentation tasks. Our setup includes 28 source datasets, 11 target datasets, 5 model architectures, and 2 pre-training methods. We benchmark our method against current state-of-the-art metrics MS-LEEP and E-LEEP, and outperform them consistently using the proposed approach.

We introduce a novel class of sample-based explanations we term high-dimensional representers, that can be used to explain the predictions of a regularized high-dimensional model in terms of importance weights for each of the training samples. Our workhorse is a novel representer theorem for general regularized high-dimensional models, which decomposes the model prediction in terms of contributions from each of the training samples: with positive (negative) values corresponding to positive (negative) impact training samples to the model's prediction. We derive consequences for the canonical instances of ell_1 regularized sparse models, and nuclear norm regularized low-rank models. As a case study, we further investigate the application of low-rank models in the context of collaborative filtering, where we instantiate high-dimensional representers for specific popular classes of models. Finally, we study the empirical performance of our proposed methods on three real-world binary classification datasets and two recommender system datasets. We also showcase the utility of high-dimensional representers in explaining model recommendations.