Daily Papers

We address the problem of finite-horizon control of a discrete-time linear system, where the initial state distribution follows a Gaussian mixture model, the terminal state must follow a specified Gaussian distribution, and the state and control inputs must obey chance constraints. We show that, throughout the time horizon, the state and control distributions are fully characterized by Gaussian mixtures. We then formulate the cost, distributional terminal constraint, and affine/2-norm chance constraints on the state and control, as convex functions of the decision variables. This is leveraged to formulate the chance-constrained path planning problem as a single convex optimization problem. A numerical example demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Learning from human demonstrations is a reliable way to teach robots new tasks, but the gains from each additional demonstration shrink as the policy improves. Continued improvement can instead come from supervised deployment, where an operator places the objects and intervenes when the policy fails. We ask how to maximize improvement from a fixed budget of supervised episodes on high-precision manipulation tasks with wide ranges of object placements. We observe that failures can concentrate in a small subset of initial states, so uniform collection spends much of the operator's time on states the policy already handles. Mulligan makes the initial-state distribution a decision, starting each round's episodes at observed failures and untried states. To further improve data efficiency, we augment interactive imitation learning with a value function trained on all data, including failures that imitation discards. Across three real-world tasks evaluated on 2,550 held-out, blinded episodes and two simulated tasks, Mulligan outperforms uniform initial-state sampling at matched collection budgets, and combined with value-based action selection, HiL-IDQL+Mulligan, improves final real-task success by 10-34 percentage points. With operator interventions, the human-robot team completes 98% of collection episodes, remaining productive while the policy learns. Videos, code, and data are available at https://mulligan.page/.

Open-source reinforcement learning (RL) environments have played a crucial role in driving progress in the development of AI algorithms. In modern RL research, there is a need for simulated environments that are performant, scalable, and modular to enable their utilization in a wider range of potential real-world applications. Therefore, we present Jumanji, a suite of diverse RL environments specifically designed to be fast, flexible, and scalable. Jumanji provides a suite of environments focusing on combinatorial problems frequently encountered in industry, as well as challenging general decision-making tasks. By leveraging the efficiency of JAX and hardware accelerators like GPUs and TPUs, Jumanji enables rapid iteration of research ideas and large-scale experimentation, ultimately empowering more capable agents. Unlike existing RL environment suites, Jumanji is highly customizable, allowing users to tailor the initial state distribution and problem complexity to their needs. Furthermore, we provide actor-critic baselines for each environment, accompanied by preliminary findings on scaling and generalization scenarios. Jumanji aims to set a new standard for speed, adaptability, and scalability of RL environments.

Imitation learning from a large set of human demonstrations has proved to be an effective paradigm for building capable robot agents. However, the demonstrations can be extremely costly and time-consuming to collect. We introduce MimicGen, a system for automatically synthesizing large-scale, rich datasets from only a small number of human demonstrations by adapting them to new contexts. We use MimicGen to generate over 50K demonstrations across 18 tasks with diverse scene configurations, object instances, and robot arms from just ~200 human demonstrations. We show that robot agents can be effectively trained on this generated dataset by imitation learning to achieve strong performance in long-horizon and high-precision tasks, such as multi-part assembly and coffee preparation, across broad initial state distributions. We further demonstrate that the effectiveness and utility of MimicGen data compare favorably to collecting additional human demonstrations, making it a powerful and economical approach towards scaling up robot learning. Datasets, simulation environments, videos, and more at https://mimicgen.github.io .

Reinforcement Learning (RL) from Human Preference-based feedback is a popular paradigm for fine-tuning generative models, which has produced impressive models such as GPT-4 and Claude3 Opus. This framework often consists of two steps: learning a reward model from an offline preference dataset followed by running online RL to optimize the learned reward model. In this work, leveraging the idea of reset, we propose a new RLHF algorithm with provable guarantees. Motivated by the fact that offline preference dataset provides informative states (i.e., data that is preferred by the labelers), our new algorithm, Dataset Reset Policy Optimization (DR-PO), integrates the existing offline preference dataset into the online policy training procedure via dataset reset: it directly resets the policy optimizer to the states in the offline dataset, instead of always starting from the initial state distribution. In theory, we show that DR-PO learns to perform at least as good as any policy that is covered by the offline dataset under general function approximation with finite sample complexity. In experiments, we demonstrate that on both the TL;DR summarization and the Anthropic Helpful Harmful (HH) dataset, the generation from DR-PO is better than that from Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) and Direction Preference Optimization (DPO), under the metric of GPT4 win-rate. Code for this work can be found at https://github.com/Cornell-RL/drpo.

High-reliability long-horizon robotic manipulation has traditionally relied on large-scale data and compute to understand complex real-world dynamics. However, we identify that the primary bottleneck to real-world robustness is not resource scale alone, but the distributional shift among the human demonstration distribution, the inductive bias learned by the policy, and the test-time execution distribution -- a systematic inconsistency that causes compounding errors in multi-stage tasks. To mitigate these inconsistencies, we propose χ_{0}, a resource-efficient framework with effective modules designated to achieve production-level robustness in robotic manipulation. Our approach builds off three technical pillars: (i) Model Arithmetic, a weight-space merging strategy that efficiently soaks up diverse distributions of different demonstrations, varying from object appearance to state variations; (ii) Stage Advantage, a stage-aware advantage estimator that provides stable, dense progress signals, overcoming the numerical instability of prior non-stage approaches; and (iii) Train-Deploy Alignment, which bridges the distribution gap via spatio-temporal augmentation, heuristic DAgger corrections, and temporal chunk-wise smoothing. χ_{0} enables two sets of dual-arm robots to collaboratively orchestrate long-horizon garment manipulation, spanning tasks from flattening, folding, to hanging different clothes. Our method exhibits high-reliability autonomy; we are able to run the system from arbitrary initial state for consecutive 24 hours non-stop. Experiments validate that χ_{0} surpasses the state-of-the-art π_{0.5} in success rate by nearly 250%, with only 20-hour data and 8 A100 GPUs. Code, data and models will be released to facilitate the community.

Recent advances in Reinforcement Learning with Verified Reward (RLVR) have driven the emergence of more sophisticated cognitive behaviors in large language models (LLMs), thereby enhancing their reasoning capabilities. However, in prior RLVR pipelines, the repeated use of static initial-state sampling drawn exactly from the dataset distribution during each sampling phase produced overly deterministic, low diversity model behavior, which manifested as rapid entropy collapse and hindered sustained performance gains during prolonged training. To address this issue, we introduce CURE (Critical-token-gUided Re concatenation for Entropy-collapse prevention), a two-stage framework that balances exploration and exploitation. Specifically, in the first stage, to deliberately steer the model toward novel yet coherent contexts, we re-generate at high-entropy critical tokens and jointly optimize the original and the branched trajectories. The further comparison with vanilla DAPO shows that the regeneration process achieves a better performance on math reasoning tasks while sustaining a high-level entropy degree for exploration. In the second stage, we continue training with static initial-state sampling by DAPO, intentionally placing the model in a familiar state to gradually strengthen exploitation. Extensive experiments on Qwen-2.5-Math-7B show that, compared to other RLVR methods, CURE achieves a 5% performance gain across six math benchmarks, establishing state-of-the-art performance in both entropy and accuracy. A series of experiments further validate the effectiveness of our approach. Code is available at https://github.com/bytedance/CURE.

Density of the reachable states can help understand the risk of safety-critical systems, especially in situations when worst-case reachability is too conservative. Recent work provides a data-driven approach to compute the density distribution of autonomous systems' forward reachable states online. In this paper, we study the use of such approach in combination with model predictive control for verifiable safe path planning under uncertainties. We first use the learned density distribution to compute the risk of collision online. If such risk exceeds the acceptable threshold, our method will plan for a new path around the previous trajectory, with the risk of collision below the threshold. Our method is well-suited to handle systems with uncertainties and complicated dynamics as our data-driven approach does not need an analytical form of the systems' dynamics and can estimate forward state density with an arbitrary initial distribution of uncertainties. We design two challenging scenarios (autonomous driving and hovercraft control) for safe motion planning in environments with obstacles under system uncertainties. We first show that our density estimation approach can reach a similar accuracy as the Monte-Carlo-based method while using only 0.01X training samples. By leveraging the estimated risk, our algorithm achieves the highest success rate in goal reaching when enforcing the safety rate above 0.99.

Approximations based on moment-closure (MA) are commonly used to obtain estimates of the mean molecule numbers and of the variance of fluctuations in the number of molecules of chemical systems. The advantage of this approach is that it can be far less computationally expensive than exact stochastic simulations of the chemical master equation. Here we numerically study the conditions under which the MA equations yield results reflecting the true stochastic dynamics of the system. We show that for bistable and oscillatory chemical systems with deterministic initial conditions, the solution of the MA equations can be interpreted as a valid approximation to the true moments of the CME, only when the steady-state mean molecule numbers obtained from the chemical master equation fall within a certain finite range. The same validity criterion for monostable systems implies that the steady-state mean molecule numbers obtained from the chemical master equation must be above a certain threshold. For mean molecule numbers outside of this range of validity, the MA equations lead to either qualitatively wrong oscillatory dynamics or to unphysical predictions such as negative variances in the molecule numbers or multiple steady-state moments of the stationary distribution as the initial conditions are varied. Our results clarify the range of validity of the MA approach and show that pitfalls in the interpretation of the results can only be overcome through the systematic comparison of the solutions of the MA equations of a certain order with those of higher orders.

To model high-risk traffic densities a cellular automaton model is constructed, exhibiting Ising model-like properties. The attraction-repulsion forces between vehicles are evaluated as coupling, and the coupling function p(1-p)=g/8, where p is the initial distribution of cells with state 1, and g is the Moore neighbor count, which has roots cos^2(π/8) and sin^2(π/8) for g=1. This is achieved without the use of any trigonometric functions in the code. From the roots, the tangent polynomial tan^2(x) + tan(x) emerges. Kramers-Wannier duality is recovered and it is conjectured that the 1/2 difference between the roots serves as a fixed point for a projection mechanism from the 2-dimensional Ising model onto a 1-dimensional Ising chain through the Gudermannian function. The sigmoid evaluated at the proposed fixed point is substituted into the derivative of the logistic coupling function, σ(1/2)(1-σ(1/2)), yielding a numerical approximation to the three-dimensional Ising inverse critical coupling. Finally, the results are linked to risk densities in traffic and vehicle types, accounting for the amplification of fatal accidents.

Deep learning algorithms can fare poorly when the training dataset suffers from heavy class-imbalance but the testing criterion requires good generalization on less frequent classes. We design two novel methods to improve performance in such scenarios. First, we propose a theoretically-principled label-distribution-aware margin (LDAM) loss motivated by minimizing a margin-based generalization bound. This loss replaces the standard cross-entropy objective during training and can be applied with prior strategies for training with class-imbalance such as re-weighting or re-sampling. Second, we propose a simple, yet effective, training schedule that defers re-weighting until after the initial stage, allowing the model to learn an initial representation while avoiding some of the complications associated with re-weighting or re-sampling. We test our methods on several benchmark vision tasks including the real-world imbalanced dataset iNaturalist 2018. Our experiments show that either of these methods alone can already improve over existing techniques and their combination achieves even better performance gains.

Simulations of turbulent flows in 3D are one of the most expensive simulations in computational fluid dynamics (CFD). Many works have been written on surrogate models to replace numerical solvers for fluid flows with faster, learned, autoregressive models. However, the intricacies of turbulence in three dimensions necessitate training these models with very small time steps, while generating realistic flow states requires either long roll-outs with many steps and significant error accumulation or starting from a known, realistic flow state - something we aimed to avoid in the first place. Instead, we propose to approach turbulent flow simulation as a generative task directly learning the manifold of all possible turbulent flow states without relying on any initial flow state. For our experiments, we introduce a challenging 3D turbulence dataset of high-resolution flows and detailed vortex structures caused by various objects and derive two novel sample evaluation metrics for turbulent flows. On this dataset, we show that our generative model captures the distribution of turbulent flows caused by unseen objects and generates high-quality, realistic samples amenable for downstream applications without access to any initial state.

Reconstructing PDE solutions from sparse observations is a core challenge in scientific computing. We present FM4PDE, a flow-matching generative framework that learns the joint distribution of PDE coefficients (or initial states) and solutions (or final states), enabling both forward simulation and inverse recovery with limited paired data. At inference, sampling is guided by a composite loss that enforces agreement with sparse measurements and reduces the PDE residual; we support deterministic, stochastic, and hybrid samplers. We provide error guarantees for these guided procedures. For the deterministic optimizer, a coercivity condition ensures trajectory boundedness and a phase-wise contraction yields logarithmic complexity in the target accuracy. For the stochastic sampler, we introduce adaptive guidance and assume dissipativity of the velocity field to obtain uniform moment bounds independent of the noise-floor parameter. This leads to polynomial-time error bounds, and a matching lower bound shows constant guidance induces an unavoidable positive bias, motivating adaptivity. A hybrid deterministic-stochastic analysis is also provided. Experiments on static and time-dependent benchmark PDEs demonstrate competitive accuracy and faster inference than diffusion-based generative models.

Driven by advancements in sensing and computing, deep reinforcement learning (DRL)-based methods have demonstrated significant potential in effectively tackling distribution system restoration (DSR) challenges under uncertain operational scenarios. However, the data-intensive nature of DRL poses obstacles in achieving satisfactory DSR solutions for large-scale, complex distribution systems. Inspired by the transformative impact of emerging foundation models, including large language models (LLMs), across various domains, this paper explores an innovative approach harnessing LLMs' powerful computing capabilities to address scalability challenges inherent in conventional DRL methods for solving DSR. To our knowledge, this study represents the first exploration of foundation models, including LLMs, in revolutionizing conventional DRL applications in power system operations. Our contributions are twofold: 1) introducing a novel LLM-powered Physics-Informed Decision Transformer (PIDT) framework that leverages LLMs to transform conventional DRL methods for DSR operations, and 2) conducting comparative studies to assess the performance of the proposed LLM-powered PIDT framework at its initial development stage for solving DSR problems. While our primary focus in this paper is on DSR operations, the proposed PIDT framework can be generalized to optimize sequential decision-making across various power system operations.

Predicting the future motion of dynamic agents is of paramount importance to ensuring safety and assessing risks in motion planning for autonomous robots. In this study, we propose a two-stage motion prediction method, called R-Pred, designed to effectively utilize both scene and interaction context using a cascade of the initial trajectory proposal and trajectory refinement networks. The initial trajectory proposal network produces M trajectory proposals corresponding to the M modes of the future trajectory distribution. The trajectory refinement network enhances each of the M proposals using 1) tube-query scene attention (TQSA) and 2) proposal-level interaction attention (PIA) mechanisms. TQSA uses tube-queries to aggregate local scene context features pooled from proximity around trajectory proposals of interest. PIA further enhances the trajectory proposals by modeling inter-agent interactions using a group of trajectory proposals selected by their distances from neighboring agents. Our experiments conducted on Argoverse and nuScenes datasets demonstrate that the proposed refinement network provides significant performance improvements compared to the single-stage baseline and that R-Pred achieves state-of-the-art performance in some categories of the benchmarks.

This work proposes a new generation-based 3D reconstruction method, named Cupid, that accurately infers the camera pose, 3D shape, and texture of an object from a single 2D image. Cupid casts 3D reconstruction as a conditional sampling process from a learned distribution of 3D objects, and it jointly generates voxels and pixel-voxel correspondences, enabling robust pose and shape estimation under a unified generative framework. By representing both input camera poses and 3D shape as a distribution in a shared 3D latent space, Cupid adopts a two-stage flow matching pipeline: (1) a coarse stage that produces initial 3D geometry with associated 2D projections for pose recovery; and (2) a refinement stage that integrates pose-aligned image features to enhance structural fidelity and appearance details. Extensive experiments demonstrate Cupid outperforms leading 3D reconstruction methods with an over 3 dB PSNR gain and an over 10% Chamfer Distance reduction, while matching monocular estimators on pose accuracy and delivering superior visual fidelity over baseline 3D generative models. For an immersive view of the 3D results generated by Cupid, please visit cupid3d.github.io.

In physics and engineering literature, the distribution of the excursion-above-zero time distribution (exceedance distribution) for a stationary Gaussian process has been approximated by a stationary switching process with independently distributed switching times. The approach matched the covariance of the clipped Gaussian process with the one for the stationary switching process and the distribution of the latter was used as the so-called independent interval approximation (IIA). The approach successfully assessed the persistency exponent for many physically important processes but left an unanswered question when such an approach leads to a mathematically meaningful and proper exceedance distribution. Here we address this question by proposing an alternative matching of the expected values of the clipped Slepian process and the corresponding switched process initiated at the origin. The method has allowed resolving the mathematical correctness of the matching method for a large subclass of the Gaussian processes with monotonic covariance, for which we provide a sufficient condition for the validity of the IIA. Within this class, the IIA produces a valid distribution for the excursion time and is represented in an explicit stochastic form that connects directly to the covariance of the underlying Gaussian process. We compare the excursion level distributions as well as the corresponding persistency exponents obtained through the IIA method with numerically computed exact distributions, and the simulated distribution for several important Gaussian models. We also argue that for stationary Gaussian processes with a non-monotonic covariance, the IIA fails and should not be used.

The infinitely wide neural network has been proven a useful and manageable mathematical model that enables the understanding of many phenomena appearing in deep learning. One example is the convergence of random deep networks to Gaussian processes that allows a rigorous analysis of the way the choice of activation function and network weights impacts the training dynamics. In this paper, we extend the seminal proof of Matthews et al. (2018) to a larger class of initial weight distributions (which we call PSEUDO-IID), including the established cases of IID and orthogonal weights, as well as the emerging low-rank and structured sparse settings celebrated for their computational speed-up benefits. We show that fully-connected and convolutional networks initialized with PSEUDO-IID distributions are all effectively equivalent up to their variance. Using our results, one can identify the Edge-of-Chaos for a broader class of neural networks and tune them at criticality in order to enhance their training. Moreover, they enable the posterior distribution of Bayesian Neural Networks to be tractable across these various initialization schemes.

Physics is based on probabilities as fundamental entities of a mathematical description. Expectation values of observables are computed according to the classical statistical rule. The overall probability distribution for one world covers all times. The quantum formalism arises once one focuses on the evolution of the time-local probabilistic information. Wave functions or the density matrix allow the formulation of a general linear evolution law for classical statistics. The quantum formalism for classical statistics is a powerful tool which allows us to implement for generalized Ising models the momentum observable with the associated Fourier representation. The association of operators to observables permits the computation of expectation values in terms of the density matrix by the usual quantum rule. We show that probabilistic cellular automata are quantum systems in a formulation with discrete time steps and real wave functions. With a complex structure the evolution operator for automata can be expressed in terms of a Hamiltonian involving fermionic creation and annihilation operators. The time-local probabilistic information amounts to a subsystem of the overall probabilistic system which is correlated with its environment consisting of the past and future. Such subsystems typically involve probabilistic observables for which only a probability distribution for their possible measurement values is available. Incomplete statistics does not permit to compute classical correlation functions for arbitrary subsystem-observables. Bell's inequalities are not generally applicable.

In reinforcement learning and imitation learning, an object of central importance is the state distribution induced by the policy. It plays a crucial role in the policy gradient theorem, and references to it--along with the related state-action distribution--can be found all across the literature. Despite its importance, the state distribution is mostly discussed indirectly and theoretically, rather than being modeled explicitly. The reason being an absence of appropriate density estimation tools. In this work, we investigate applications of a normalizing flow-based model for the aforementioned distributions. In particular, we use a pair of flows coupled through the optimality point of the Donsker-Varadhan representation of the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence, for distribution matching based imitation learning. Our algorithm, Coupled Flow Imitation Learning (CFIL), achieves state-of-the-art performance on benchmark tasks with a single expert trajectory and extends naturally to a variety of other settings, including the subsampled and state-only regimes.

In theoretical neuroscience, recent work leverages deep learning tools to explore how some network attributes critically influence its learning dynamics. Notably, initial weight distributions with small (resp. large) variance may yield a rich (resp. lazy) regime, where significant (resp. minor) changes to network states and representation are observed over the course of learning. However, in biology, neural circuit connectivity could exhibit a low-rank structure and therefore differs markedly from the random initializations generally used for these studies. As such, here we investigate how the structure of the initial weights -- in particular their effective rank -- influences the network learning regime. Through both empirical and theoretical analyses, we discover that high-rank initializations typically yield smaller network changes indicative of lazier learning, a finding we also confirm with experimentally-driven initial connectivity in recurrent neural networks. Conversely, low-rank initialization biases learning towards richer learning. Importantly, however, as an exception to this rule, we find lazier learning can still occur with a low-rank initialization that aligns with task and data statistics. Our research highlights the pivotal role of initial weight structures in shaping learning regimes, with implications for metabolic costs of plasticity and risks of catastrophic forgetting.

Proper weight initialization prior to training has historically been one of the key factors that helped kick off the deep learning revolution. Initialization is even more crucial in "reservoir computing", where the weights of a readout layer are learned linearly while the reservoir weights are fixed and largely determine the richness, stability and memory of the resulting dynamics. In the infinite-width limit it has been shown that meaningful initializations are those sitting at an effective critical point of the randomly initialized model. The phase transition is controlled by the weight variance g^2 and separates an ordered phase from a chaotic one where information progressively degrades. Here we derive a simple criterion to estimate the critical g_c for a broad class of recurrent architectures and we show that it closely tracks the gain at which a gated-RNN reservoir achieves peak performance on a chaotic forecasting task. Finally, we argue that our criterion can serve as a design principle for future initialization schemes.

State density distribution, in contrast to worst-case reachability, can be leveraged for safety-related problems to better quantify the likelihood of the risk for potentially hazardous situations. In this work, we propose a data-driven method to compute the density distribution of reachable states for nonlinear and even black-box systems. Our semi-supervised approach learns system dynamics and the state density jointly from trajectory data, guided by the fact that the state density evolution follows the Liouville partial differential equation. With the help of neural network reachability tools, our approach can estimate the set of all possible future states as well as their density. Moreover, we could perform online safety verification with probability ranges for unsafe behaviors to occur. We use an extensive set of experiments to show that our learned solution can produce a much more accurate estimate on density distribution, and can quantify risks less conservatively and flexibly comparing with worst-case analysis.

Initial value problems -- a system of ordinary differential equations and corresponding initial conditions -- can be used to describe many physical phenomena including those arise in classical mechanics. We have developed a novel approach to solve physics-based initial value problems using unsupervised machine learning. We propose a deep learning framework that models the dynamics of a variety of mechanical systems through neural networks. Our framework is flexible, allowing us to solve non-linear, coupled, and chaotic dynamical systems. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach on systems including a free particle, a particle in a gravitational field, a classical pendulum, and the H\'enon--Heiles system (a pair of coupled harmonic oscillators with a non-linear perturbation, used in celestial mechanics). Our results show that deep neural networks can successfully approximate solutions to these problems, producing trajectories which conserve physical properties such as energy and those with stationary action. We note that probabilistic activation functions, as defined in this paper, are required to learn any solutions of initial value problems in their strictest sense, and we introduce coupled neural networks to learn solutions of coupled systems.

Straight line equation y=mx with slope m, when singularly perturbed as ay^3+y=mx with a positive parameter a, results in S-shaped curves or S-curves on a real plane. As arightarrow 0, we get back y=mx which is a cumulative distribution function of a continuous uniform distribution that describes the occurrence of every event in an interval to be equally probable. As arightarrowinfty, the derivative of y has finite support only at y=0 resembling a degenerate distribution. Based on these arguments, in this work, we propose that these S-curves can represent maximum entropy uniform distribution to a zero entropy single value. We also argue that these S-curves are superposable as they are only parametrically nonlinear but fundamentally linear. So far, the superposed forms have been used to capture the patterns of natural systems such as nonlinear dynamics of biological growth and kinetics of enzyme reactions. Here, we attempt to use the S-curve and its superposed form as statistical models. We fit the models on a classical dataset containing flower measurements of iris plants and analyze their usefulness in pattern recognition. Based on these models, we claim that any non-uniform pattern can be represented as a singular perturbation to uniform distribution. However, our parametric estimation procedure have some limitations such as sensitivity to initial conditions depending on the data at hand.

The performance of quantum annealing for combinatorial optimization is fundamentally limited by the minimum energy gap Δ encountered at quantum phase transitions. We investigate the scaling of Δ with system size N for two paradigmatic quantum spin-glass models: the two-dimensional Edwards-Anderson (2D-EA) and the all-to-all Sherrington-Kirkpatrick (SK) models. Utilizing a newly proposed unbiased energy-gap estimator for continuous-time projection quantum Monte Carlo simulations, complemented by high-performance sparse eigenvalue solvers, we characterize the gap distributions across disorder realizations. It is found that, in the 2D-EA case, the inverse-gap distribution develops a fat tail with infinite variance as N increases. This indicates that the unfavorable super-algebraic scaling of Δ, recently reported for binary couplings [Nature 631, 749 (2024)], persists for the Gaussian disorder considered here, pointing to a universal feature of 2D spin glasses. Conversely, the SK model retains a finite-variance distribution, with the disorder-averaged gap following a rather slow power law, close to Δpropto N^{-1/3}. This finding provides a promising outlook for the potential efficiency of quantum annealers for optimization problems with dense connectivity.

We apply the Weibull distribution -- a two-parameter family from extreme-value theory -- as a diagnostic framework for element-wise weight magnitude distributions in transformers. At initialization, i.i.d. Gaussian weights give |w| ~ HalfNormal, yielding k ~ 1.20 via middle-80% probability-plot fit (the protocol used throughout this work). This anchor makes k a principled, architecture-independent measuring stick for training dynamics; fitting each weight matrix independently at every layer at every checkpoint enables per-component, per-layer, and per-step diagnostics that aggregate statistics cannot resolve. Applying this framework to 12 model entries spanning 7 architectural families (Pythia, OLMo-1/2, LLaMA-3, Mistral, Qwen2.5/3) reveals three findings. First, FFN modules and the attention output projection W_o -- the Transmission Class -- fall in a narrow k band: median terminal k in [1.186, 1.204] across 12 entries (cross-family CV = 0.51%), shared across SwiGLU/GeLU activations, Pre-LN/QK-Norm placements, and 70M-14B sizes. Second, the attention input projections W_q, W_k -- the Selection Class -- depart from the Weibull family, with severity shaped by storage: separately-stored Q/K (OLMo-1, OLMo-2) yields k in [0.76, 0.99] (deep); GQA models yield k in [1.10, 1.16] (mild); Pythia's merged W_qkv occupies a transitional zone tracking training budget T/tau monotonically. Third, lambda grows substantially during training and scales with sqrt(eta/lambda_wd) within the Pythia family (Pearson r = 0.94, three Transmission kinds), directionally consistent with Fan et al. (2025). The two parameters carry independent information: k labels the functional class, lambda labels training progress. We release npm-weibull-py v0.4 (Python library) and DATABASE_v9_1 at https://github.com/tiexinding/NPM-Weibull-public .

The initial state of neural networks plays a central role in conditioning the subsequent training dynamics. In the context of classification problems, we provide a theoretical analysis demonstrating that the structure of a neural network can condition the model to assign all predictions to the same class, even before the beginning of training, and in the absence of explicit biases. We show that the presence of this phenomenon, which we call "Initial Guessing Bias" (IGB), depends on architectural choices such as activation functions, max-pooling layers, and network depth. Our analysis of IGB has practical consequences, in that it guides architecture selection and initialization. We also highlight theoretical consequences, such as the breakdown of node-permutation symmetry, the violation of self-averaging, the validity of some mean-field approximations, and the non-trivial differences arising with depth.

We provide a concise framework for generalized ensemble theory through a matrix-based approach. By introducing an observation matrix, any discrete probability distribution, including those for non-equilibrium steady states, can be expressed as a generalized Boltzmann distribution, with observables and conjugate variables as the basis and coordinates in a linear space. In this framework, we identify the minimal sufficient statistics required for inferring the Boltzmann distribution. Furthermore, we show that the Hadamard and Vandermonde matrices are suitable observation matrices for spin systems and random walks. In master equation systems, the probability flux observation matrix facilitates the identification of detailed balance violations. Our findings provide a new approach to developing generalized ensemble theory for non-equilibrium steady-state systems.

This monograph attempts a theory of every 'thing' that can be distinguished from other things in a statistical sense. The ensuing statistical independencies, mediated by Markov blankets, speak to a recursive composition of ensembles (of things) at increasingly higher spatiotemporal scales. This decomposition provides a description of small things; e.g., quantum mechanics - via the Schrodinger equation, ensembles of small things - via statistical mechanics and related fluctuation theorems, through to big things - via classical mechanics. These descriptions are complemented with a Bayesian mechanics for autonomous or active things. Although this work provides a formulation of every thing, its main contribution is to examine the implications of Markov blankets for self-organisation to nonequilibrium steady-state. In brief, we recover an information geometry and accompanying free energy principle that allows one to interpret the internal states of something as representing or making inferences about its external states. The ensuing Bayesian mechanics is compatible with quantum, statistical and classical mechanics and may offer a formal description of lifelike particles.

Schrödinger bridge (SB) learns stochastic transport between prescribed initial and target distributions. When the initial distribution shifts at test time, the learned dynamics can fail to recover the target distribution. We introduce the Distributionally Robust Schrödinger Bridge (DRSB), which learns a single controller that accounts for uncertainty in the initial distribution. The DRSB objective consists of control energy and a KL penalty between the resulting terminal distribution and the target distribution. DRSB seeks a single controller that minimizes the worst-case value of this objective as the initial distribution varies within an ambiguity set around the nominal distribution. We derive an exact variational formulation of this objective and connect its fixed-terminal-cost subproblem to stochastic optimal control and distributionally robust optimization. This formulation motivates an alternating algorithm that updates the adversarial initial distribution, estimates the terminal log-density ratio, and trains the controller. We develop Wasserstein and Sinkhorn variants using stochastic control optimality conditions to approximate the gradients required for adversarial updates. Experiments on two-dimensional transport tasks and image-to-image translation show improved robustness to input perturbations relative to standard SB, with a tradeoff in nominal performance. On Gaussian mixture transport, Sinkhorn DRSB also achieves lower mean sliced Wasserstein distance than fixed-level noise augmentation at both tested unseen noise levels.

We investigate the time evolution of the Boltzmann entropy of a dilute gas of N particles, N>>1, as it undergoes a free expansion doubling its volume. The microstate of the system, a point in the 4N dimensional phase space, changes in time via Hamiltonian dynamics. Its entropy, at any time t, is given by the logarithm of the phase space volume of all the microstates giving rise to its macrostate at time t. The macrostates that we consider are defined by coarse graining the one-particle phase space into cells Δ_α. The initial and final macrostates of the system are equilibrium states in volumes V and 2V, with the same energy E and particle number N. Their entropy per particle is given, for sufficiently large systems, by the thermodynamic entropy as a function of the particle and energy density, whose leading term is independent of the size of the Δ_α. The intermediate (non-equilibrium) entropy does however depend on the size of the cells Δ_α. Its change with time is due to (i) dispersal in physical space from free motion and to (ii) the collisions between particles which change their velocities. The former depends strongly on the size of the velocity coarse graining Δv: it produces entropy at a rate proportional to Δv. This dependence is investigated numerically and analytically for a dilute two-dimensional gas of hard discs. It becomes significant when the mean free path between collisions is of the same order or larger than the length scale of the initial spatial inhomogeneity. In the opposite limit, the rate of entropy production is essentially independent of Δv and is given by the Boltzmann equation for the limit Δvrightarrow 0. We show that when both processes are active the time dependence of the entropy has a scaling form involving the ratio of the rates of its production by the two processes.

Boltzmann generators approach the sampling problem in many-body physics by combining a normalizing flow and a statistical reweighting method to generate samples in thermodynamic equilibrium. The equilibrium distribution is usually defined by an energy function and a thermodynamic state. Here we propose temperature-steerable flows (TSF) which are able to generate a family of probability densities parametrized by a choosable temperature parameter. TSFs can be embedded in generalized ensemble sampling frameworks to sample a physical system across multiple thermodynamic states.

We develop a perturbative framework for systems coupled quadratically to bosonic environments with quadratic Hamiltonians and linear Lindblad operators. The method applies to both single-mode and multimode environments whose initial states may be non-Gaussian and nonstationary. By combining linear evolution in a doubled operator space with a characteristic-function representation, we express ordered multitime environmental correlation functions in terms of derivatives of the initial characteristic function. These correlation functions enter a recursive construction of the time-convolutionless generator at arbitrary finite order. We illustrate the method with a qubit coupled to a damped mode via a two-photon interaction. Initial Fock and thermal states with identical first and second field moments produce different second-order generators through their fourth moments.

In recent years, large-scale pre-trained diffusion models have demonstrated their outstanding capabilities in image and video generation tasks. However, existing models tend to produce visual objects commonly found in the training dataset, which diverges from user input prompts. The underlying reason behind the inaccurate generated results lies in the model's difficulty in sampling from specific intervals of the initial noise distribution corresponding to the prompt. Moreover, it is challenging to directly optimize the initial distribution, given that the diffusion process involves multiple denoising steps. In this paper, we introduce a Fine-tuning Initial Noise Distribution (FIND) framework with policy optimization, which unleashes the powerful potential of pre-trained diffusion networks by directly optimizing the initial distribution to align the generated contents with user-input prompts. To this end, we first reformulate the diffusion denoising procedure as a one-step Markov decision process and employ policy optimization to directly optimize the initial distribution. In addition, a dynamic reward calibration module is proposed to ensure training stability during optimization. Furthermore, we introduce a ratio clipping algorithm to utilize historical data for network training and prevent the optimized distribution from deviating too far from the original policy to restrain excessive optimization magnitudes. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our method in both text-to-image and text-to-video tasks, surpassing SOTA methods in achieving consistency between prompts and the generated content. Our method achieves 10 times faster than the SOTA approach. Our homepage is available at https://github.com/vpx-ecnu/FIND-website.

Certain tasks in high-dimensional statistics become easier when the underlying distribution satisfies a local-to-global property called approximate tensorization of entropy (ATE). For example, the Glauber dynamics Markov chain of an ATE distribution mixes fast and can produce approximate samples in a small amount of time, since such a distribution satisfies a modified log-Sobolev inequality. Moreover, identity-testing for an ATE distribution requires few samples if the tester is given coordinate conditional access to the unknown distribution, as shown by Blanca, Chen, Štefankovič, and Vigoda (COLT 2023). A natural class of distributions that do not satisfy ATE consists of mixtures of (few) distributions that do satisfy ATE. We study the complexity of identity-testing and sampling for these distributions. Our main results are the following: 1. We show fast mixing of Glauber dynamics from a data-based initialization, with optimal sample complexity, for mixtures of distributions satisfying modified log-Sobolev inequalities. This extends work of Huang, Koehler, Lee, Mohanty, Rajaraman, Vuong, and Wu (STOC 2025, COLT 2025) for mixtures of distributions satisfying Poincaré inequalities. 2. Answering an open question posed by Blanca et al., we give efficient identity-testers for mixtures of ATE distributions in the coordinate-conditional sampling access model. We also give some simplifications and improvements to the original algorithm of Blanca et al.

This paper introduces a continuous-time stochastic dynamical framework for understanding how large language models (LLMs) may self-amplify latent biases or toxicity through their own chain-of-thought reasoning. The model posits an instantaneous "severity" variable x(t) in [0,1] evolving under a stochastic differential equation (SDE) with a drift term μ(x) and diffusion σ(x). Crucially, such a process can be consistently analyzed via the Fokker--Planck approach if each incremental step behaves nearly Markovian in severity space. The analysis investigates critical phenomena, showing that certain parameter regimes create phase transitions from subcritical (self-correcting) to supercritical (runaway severity). The paper derives stationary distributions, first-passage times to harmful thresholds, and scaling laws near critical points. Finally, it highlights implications for agents and extended LLM reasoning models: in principle, these equations might serve as a basis for formal verification of whether a model remains stable or propagates bias over repeated inferences.

Deep neural networks are usually initialized with random weights, with adequately selected initial variance to ensure stable signal propagation during training. However, selecting the appropriate variance becomes challenging especially as the number of layers grows. In this work, we replace random weight initialization with a fully deterministic initialization scheme, viz., ZerO, which initializes the weights of networks with only zeros and ones (up to a normalization factor), based on identity and Hadamard transforms. Through both theoretical and empirical studies, we demonstrate that ZerO is able to train networks without damaging their expressivity. Applying ZerO on ResNet achieves state-of-the-art performance on various datasets, including ImageNet, which suggests random weights may be unnecessary for network initialization. In addition, ZerO has many benefits, such as training ultra deep networks (without batch-normalization), exhibiting low-rank learning trajectories that result in low-rank and sparse solutions, and improving training reproducibility.

Estimating the symbolic or analytical form of probability density functions (PDFs) from observed samples is a fundamental challenge in statistical and computational modelling. This process is critical for deriving interpretable and generalizable relationships characterizing the underlying phenomenon. Traditionally, this estimation depends strongly on domain expertise and prior field-specific knowledge, with experts selecting appropriate functional forms or parametric families based on empirical evidence and theoretical understanding. The coefficients of these forms are then typically determined through parameter estimation. In this paper, we develop a framework for estimating symbolic expressions of unnormalized distributions from observed samples using domain-specific prior knowledge, such as the range of interactions and a predefined set of primitive functions. We integrate deep generative models with symbolic regression (SR), incorporating inductive biases, such as factorizing large distributions, to keep the problem tractable. The deep generative models we examine include likelihood-based models, viz., flow models, and score-based models. Experiments show the effectiveness of the proposed framework for estimating density functions for multivariate toy distributions as well as lattices from computational physics, namely, XY model and ϕ^4 theory. When applied to the renormalization problem in ϕ^4 theory, the proposed framework estimates compact symbolic approximations of the hamiltonian function at different scales directly from samples, yielding expressions that may be challenging to derive using traditional perturbative or analytic approaches in nonperturbative settings.

Gaussian process state-space models (GPSSMs) provide a principled and flexible approach to modeling the dynamics of a latent state, which is observed at discrete-time points via a likelihood model. However, inference in GPSSMs is computationally and statistically challenging due to the large number of latent variables in the model and the strong temporal dependencies between them. In this paper, we propose a new method for inference in Bayesian GPSSMs, which overcomes the drawbacks of previous approaches, namely over-simplified assumptions, and high computational requirements. Our method is based on free-form variational inference via stochastic gradient Hamiltonian Monte Carlo within the inducing-variable formalism. Furthermore, by exploiting our proposed variational distribution, we provide a collapsed extension of our method where the inducing variables are marginalized analytically. We also showcase results when combining our framework with particle MCMC methods. We show that, on six real-world datasets, our approach can learn transition dynamics and latent states more accurately than competing methods.

The Eigenstate Thermalization Hypothesis (ETH) has been established as a cornerstone for understanding thermalization in quantum many-body systems. Recently, there has been growing interest in the full ETH, which extends the framework of the conventional ETH and postulates a smooth function to describe the multi-point correlations among matrix elements. Within this framework, free cumulants play a central role, and most previous studies have primarily focused on closed systems. In this paper, we extend the analysis to a system-bath setup, considering both an idealized case with a random-matrix bath and a more realistic scenario where the bath is modeled as a defect Ising chain. In both cases, we uncover a universal scaling of microcanonical free cumulants of system observables with respect to the interaction strength. Furthermore we establish a connection between this scaling behavior and the thermalization dynamics of the thermal free cumulants of corresponding observables.

A class of generative models that unifies flow-based and diffusion-based methods is introduced. These models extend the framework proposed in Albergo & Vanden-Eijnden (2023), enabling the use of a broad class of continuous-time stochastic processes called `stochastic interpolants' to bridge any two arbitrary probability density functions exactly in finite time. These interpolants are built by combining data from the two prescribed densities with an additional latent variable that shapes the bridge in a flexible way. The time-dependent probability density function of the stochastic interpolant is shown to satisfy a first-order transport equation as well as a family of forward and backward Fokker-Planck equations with tunable diffusion coefficient. Upon consideration of the time evolution of an individual sample, this viewpoint immediately leads to both deterministic and stochastic generative models based on probability flow equations or stochastic differential equations with an adjustable level of noise. The drift coefficients entering these models are time-dependent velocity fields characterized as the unique minimizers of simple quadratic objective functions, one of which is a new objective for the score of the interpolant density. We show that minimization of these quadratic objectives leads to control of the likelihood for generative models built upon stochastic dynamics, while likelihood control for deterministic dynamics is more stringent. We also discuss connections with other methods such as score-based diffusion models, stochastic localization processes, probabilistic denoising techniques, and rectifying flows. In addition, we demonstrate that stochastic interpolants recover the Schr\"odinger bridge between the two target densities when explicitly optimizing over the interpolant. Finally, algorithmic aspects are discussed and the approach is illustrated on numerical examples.

The statistical mechanics of Gibbs is a juxtaposition of subjective, probabilistic ideas on the one hand and objective, mechanical ideas on the other. In this paper, we follow the path set out by Jaynes, including elements added subsequently to that original work, to explore the consequences of the purely statistical point of view. We show how standard methods in the equilibrium theory could have been derived simply from a description of the available problem information. In addition, our presentation leads to novel insights into questions associated with symmetry and non-equilibrium statistical mechanics. Two surprising consequences to be explored in further work are that (in)distinguishability factors are automatically predicted from the problem formulation and that a quantity related to the thermodynamic entropy production is found by considering information loss in non-equilibrium processes. Using the problem of ion channel thermodynamics as an example, we illustrate the idea of building up complexity by successively adding information to create progressively more complex descriptions of a physical system. Our result is that such statistical mechanical descriptions can be used to create transparent, computable, experimentally-relevant models that may be informed by more detailed atomistic simulations. We also derive a theory for the kinetic behavior of this system, identifying the nonequilibrium `process' free energy functional. The Gibbs relation for this functional is a fluctuation-dissipation theorem applicable arbitrarily far from equilibrium, that captures the effect of non-local and time-dependent behavior from transient driving forces. Based on this work, it is clear that statistical mechanics is a general tool for constructing the relationships between constraints on system information.

Markov jump processes are continuous-time stochastic processes which describe dynamical systems evolving in discrete state spaces. These processes find wide application in the natural sciences and machine learning, but their inference is known to be far from trivial. In this work we introduce a methodology for zero-shot inference of Markov jump processes (MJPs), on bounded state spaces, from noisy and sparse observations, which consists of two components. First, a broad probability distribution over families of MJPs, as well as over possible observation times and noise mechanisms, with which we simulate a synthetic dataset of hidden MJPs and their noisy observation process. Second, a neural network model that processes subsets of the simulated observations, and that is trained to output the initial condition and rate matrix of the target MJP in a supervised way. We empirically demonstrate that one and the same (pretrained) model can infer, in a zero-shot fashion, hidden MJPs evolving in state spaces of different dimensionalities. Specifically, we infer MJPs which describe (i) discrete flashing ratchet systems, which are a type of Brownian motors, and the conformational dynamics in (ii) molecular simulations, (iii) experimental ion channel data and (iv) simple protein folding models. What is more, we show that our model performs on par with state-of-the-art models which are finetuned to the target datasets.

We investigate statistical properties of a likelihood approach to nonparametric estimation of a singular distribution using deep generative models. More specifically, a deep generative model is used to model high-dimensional data that are assumed to concentrate around some low-dimensional structure. Estimating the distribution supported on this low-dimensional structure, such as a low-dimensional manifold, is challenging due to its singularity with respect to the Lebesgue measure in the ambient space. In the considered model, a usual likelihood approach can fail to estimate the target distribution consistently due to the singularity. We prove that a novel and effective solution exists by perturbing the data with an instance noise, which leads to consistent estimation of the underlying distribution with desirable convergence rates. We also characterize the class of distributions that can be efficiently estimated via deep generative models. This class is sufficiently general to contain various structured distributions such as product distributions, classically smooth distributions and distributions supported on a low-dimensional manifold. Our analysis provides some insights on how deep generative models can avoid the curse of dimensionality for nonparametric distribution estimation. We conduct a thorough simulation study and real data analysis to empirically demonstrate that the proposed data perturbation technique improves the estimation performance significantly.

Let L denote the Laplacian matrix of a graph G. We study continuous quantum walks on G defined by the transition matrix U(t)=expleft(itLright). The initial state is of the pair state form, e_a-e_b with a,b being any two vertices of G. We provide two ways to construct infinite families of graphs that have perfect pair transfer. We study a "transitivity" phenomenon which cannot occur in vertex state transfer. We characterize perfect pair state transfer on paths and cycles. We also study the case when quantum walks are generated by the unsigned Laplacians of underlying graphs and the initial states are of the plus state form, e_a+e_b. When the underlying graphs are bipartite, plus state transfer is equivalent to pair state transfer.

We construct solutions to the two-dimensional stationary Prandtl system under a constant adverse pressure gradient exhibiting a family of distinct separation laws. More precisely, for every integer ellge1, we construct smooth initial data for which separation occurs at a finite location x=x^ast, with \[ \partial_y u(x,0) =\mathbf C_\ell(x^\ast-x)^{\ell/2}\bigl(1+o(1)\bigr), \qquad x\uparrow x^\ast, \] where mathbf C_ell>0 depends on the initial data. We determine the local asymptotic structure of the solution near separation through matched inner and outer expansions based on linearization around the ground state in von Mises variables. This description addresses Open Problem~5 posed by Oleinik and Samokhin~OleinikSamok-book-99. We also prove that the square-root separation regime, corresponding to ell=1, is dynamically stable under small admissible perturbations of the initial data in a suitable topology.

Molecules are frequently represented as graphs, but the underlying 3D molecular geometry (the locations of the atoms) ultimately determines most molecular properties. However, most molecules are not static and at room temperature adopt a wide variety of geometries or conformations. The resulting distribution on geometries p(x) is known as the Boltzmann distribution, and many molecular properties are expectations computed under this distribution. Generating accurate samples from the Boltzmann distribution is therefore essential for computing these expectations accurately. Traditional sampling-based methods are computationally expensive, and most recent machine learning-based methods have focused on identifying modes in this distribution rather than generating true samples. Generating such samples requires capturing conformational variability, and it has been widely recognized that the majority of conformational variability in molecules arises from rotatable bonds. In this work, we present VonMisesNet, a new graph neural network that captures conformational variability via a variational approximation of rotatable bond torsion angles as a mixture of von Mises distributions. We demonstrate that VonMisesNet can generate conformations for arbitrary molecules in a way that is both physically accurate with respect to the Boltzmann distribution and orders of magnitude faster than existing sampling methods.

Many recent reasoning gains in large language models can be explained as distribution sharpening: biasing generation toward high-likelihood trajectories already supported by the pretrained model, rather than modifying its weights. A natural formalization is the sequence-level power distribution π_α(ymid x)propto p_θ(ymid x)^α (α>1), which concentrates mass on whole sequences instead of adjusting token-level temperature. Prior work shows that Metropolis--Hastings (MH) sampling from this distribution recovers strong reasoning performance, but at order-of-magnitude inference slowdowns. We introduce Power-SMC, a training-free Sequential Monte Carlo scheme that targets the same objective while remaining close to standard decoding latency. Power-SMC advances a small particle set in parallel, corrects importance weights token-by-token, and resamples when necessary, all within a single GPU-friendly batched decode. We prove that temperature τ=1/α is the unique prefix-only proposal minimizing incremental weight variance, interpret residual instability via prefix-conditioned Rényi entropies, and introduce an exponent-bridging schedule that improves particle stability without altering the target. On MATH500, Power-SMC matches or exceeds MH power sampling while reducing latency from 16--28times to 1.4--3.3times over baseline decoding. The code is available at https://github.com/ArminAzizi98/Power-SMC.

Recently, recurrent models such as state space models and linear attention have become popular due to their linear complexity in the sequence length. Thanks to their recurrent nature, in principle they can process arbitrarily long sequences, but their performance sometimes drops considerably beyond their training context lengths-i.e. they fail to length generalize. In this work, we provide comprehensive empirical and theoretical analysis to support the unexplored states hypothesis, which posits that models fail to length generalize when during training they are only exposed to a limited subset of the distribution of all attainable states (i.e. states that would be attained if the recurrence was applied to long sequences). Furthermore, we investigate simple training interventions that aim to increase the coverage of the states that the model is trained on, e.g. by initializing the state with Gaussian noise or with the final state of a different input sequence. With only 500 post-training steps (sim 0.1% of the pre-training budget), these interventions enable length generalization for sequences that are orders of magnitude longer than the training context (e.g. 2klongrightarrow 128k) and show improved performance in long context tasks, thus presenting a simple and efficient way to enable robust length generalization in general recurrent models.

There has been a recent surge of interest in modeling neural networks (NNs) as Gaussian processes. In the limit of a NN of infinite width the NN becomes equivalent to a Gaussian process. Here we demonstrate that for an ensemble of large, finite, fully connected networks with a single hidden layer the distribution of outputs at initialization is well described by a Gaussian perturbed by the fourth Hermite polynomial for weights drawn from a symmetric distribution. We show that the scale of the perturbation is inversely proportional to the number of units in the NN and that higher order terms decay more rapidly, thereby recovering the Edgeworth expansion. We conclude by observing that understanding how this perturbation changes under training would reveal the regimes in which the Gaussian process framework is valid to model NN behavior.

The sampling of probability distributions specified up to a normalization constant is an important problem in both machine learning and statistical mechanics. While classical stochastic sampling methods such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) or Langevin Dynamics (LD) can suffer from slow mixing times there is a growing interest in using normalizing flows in order to learn the transformation of a simple prior distribution to the given target distribution. Here we propose a generalized and combined approach to sample target densities: Stochastic Normalizing Flows (SNF) -- an arbitrary sequence of deterministic invertible functions and stochastic sampling blocks. We show that stochasticity overcomes expressivity limitations of normalizing flows resulting from the invertibility constraint, whereas trainable transformations between sampling steps improve efficiency of pure MCMC/LD along the flow. By invoking ideas from non-equilibrium statistical mechanics we derive an efficient training procedure by which both the sampler's and the flow's parameters can be optimized end-to-end, and by which we can compute exact importance weights without having to marginalize out the randomness of the stochastic blocks. We illustrate the representational power, sampling efficiency and asymptotic correctness of SNFs on several benchmarks including applications to sampling molecular systems in equilibrium.

A central problem in machine learning involves modeling complex data-sets using highly flexible families of probability distributions in which learning, sampling, inference, and evaluation are still analytically or computationally tractable. Here, we develop an approach that simultaneously achieves both flexibility and tractability. The essential idea, inspired by non-equilibrium statistical physics, is to systematically and slowly destroy structure in a data distribution through an iterative forward diffusion process. We then learn a reverse diffusion process that restores structure in data, yielding a highly flexible and tractable generative model of the data. This approach allows us to rapidly learn, sample from, and evaluate probabilities in deep generative models with thousands of layers or time steps, as well as to compute conditional and posterior probabilities under the learned model. We additionally release an open source reference implementation of the algorithm.

In dynamic programming (DP) and reinforcement learning (RL), an agent learns to act optimally in terms of expected long-term return by sequentially interacting with its environment modeled by a Markov decision process (MDP). More generally in distributional reinforcement learning (DRL), the focus is on the whole distribution of the return, not just its expectation. Although DRL-based methods produced state-of-the-art performance in RL with function approximation, they involve additional quantities (compared to the non-distributional setting) that are still not well understood. As a first contribution, we introduce a new class of distributional operators, together with a practical DP algorithm for policy evaluation, that come with a robust MDP interpretation. Indeed, our approach reformulates through an augmented state space where each state is split into a worst-case substate and a best-case substate, whose values are maximized by safe and risky policies respectively. Finally, we derive distributional operators and DP algorithms solving a new control task: How to distinguish safe from risky optimal actions in order to break ties in the space of optimal policies?

We examine the geometry of neural network training using the Jacobian of trained network parameters with respect to their initial values. Our analysis reveals low-dimensional structure in the training process which is dependent on the input data but largely independent of the labels. We find that the singular value spectrum of the Jacobian matrix consists of three distinctive regions: a "chaotic" region of values orders of magnitude greater than one, a large "bulk" region of values extremely close to one, and a "stable" region of values less than one. Along each bulk direction, the left and right singular vectors are nearly identical, indicating that perturbations to the initialization are carried through training almost unchanged. These perturbations have virtually no effect on the network's output in-distribution, yet do have an effect far out-of-distribution. While the Jacobian applies only locally around a single initialization, we find substantial overlap in bulk subspaces for different random seeds. Our code is available at https://github.com/EleutherAI/training-jacobian

To improve the sample efficiency of policy-gradient based reinforcement learning algorithms, we propose implicit distributional actor-critic (IDAC) that consists of a distributional critic, built on two deep generator networks (DGNs), and a semi-implicit actor (SIA), powered by a flexible policy distribution. We adopt a distributional perspective on the discounted cumulative return and model it with a state-action-dependent implicit distribution, which is approximated by the DGNs that take state-action pairs and random noises as their input. Moreover, we use the SIA to provide a semi-implicit policy distribution, which mixes the policy parameters with a reparameterizable distribution that is not constrained by an analytic density function. In this way, the policy's marginal distribution is implicit, providing the potential to model complex properties such as covariance structure and skewness, but its parameter and entropy can still be estimated. We incorporate these features with an off-policy algorithm framework to solve problems with continuous action space and compare IDAC with state-of-the-art algorithms on representative OpenAI Gym environments. We observe that IDAC outperforms these baselines in most tasks. Python code is provided.

Building Virtual Cells that can accurately simulate cellular responses to perturbations is a long-standing goal in systems biology. A fundamental challenge is that high-throughput single-cell sequencing is destructive: the same cell cannot be observed both before and after a perturbation. Thus, perturbation prediction requires mapping unpaired control and perturbed populations. Existing models address this by learning maps between distributions, but typically assume a single fixed response distribution when conditioned on observed cellular context (e.g., cell type) and the perturbation type. In reality, responses vary systematically due to unobservable latent factors such as microenvironmental fluctuations and complex batch effects, forming a manifold of possible distributions for the same observed conditions. To account for this variability, we introduce PerturbDiff, which shifts modeling from individual cells to entire distributions. By embedding distributions as points in a Hilbert space, we define a diffusion-based generative process operating directly over probability distributions. This allows PerturbDiff to capture population-level response shifts across hidden factors. Benchmarks on established datasets show that PerturbDiff achieves state-of-the-art performance in single-cell response prediction and generalizes substantially better to unseen perturbations. See our project page (https://katarinayuan.github.io/PerturbDiff-ProjectPage/), where code and data will be made publicly available (https://github.com/DeepGraphLearning/PerturbDiff).

In contrast to classical reinforcement learning, distributional reinforcement learning algorithms aim to learn the distribution of returns rather than their expected value. Since the nature of the return distribution is generally unknown a priori or arbitrarily complex, a common approach finds approximations within a set of representable, parametric distributions. Typically, this involves a projection of the unconstrained distribution onto the set of simplified distributions. We argue that this projection step entails a strong inductive bias when coupled with neural networks and gradient descent, thereby profoundly impacting the generalization behavior of learned models. In order to facilitate reliable uncertainty estimation through diversity, this work studies the combination of several different projections and representations in a distributional ensemble. We establish theoretical properties of such projection ensembles and derive an algorithm that uses ensemble disagreement, measured by the average 1-Wasserstein distance, as a bonus for deep exploration. We evaluate our algorithm on the behavior suite benchmark and find that diverse projection ensembles lead to significant performance improvements over existing methods on a wide variety of tasks with the most pronounced gains in directed exploration problems.

This paper studies the properties of the Multiply Iterated Poisson Process (MIPP), a stochastic process constructed by repeatedly time-changing a Poisson process, and its applications in ruin theory. Like standard Poisson processes, MIPPs have exponentially distributed sojourn times (waiting times between jumps). We explicitly derive the probabilities of all possible jump sizes at the first jump and obtain the Laplace transform of the joint distribution of the first jump time and its corresponding jump size. In ruin theory, the classical Cramér-Lundberg model assumes that claims arrive independently according to a Poisson process. In contrast, our model employs an MIPP to allow for clustered arrivals, reflecting real-world scenarios, such as catastrophic events. Under this new framework, we derive the corresponding scale function in closed form, facilitating accurate calculations of the probability of ruin in the presence of clustered claims. These results improve the modeling of extreme risks and have practical implications for insurance solvency assessments, reinsurance pricing, and capital reserve estimation.

The modeling of probability distributions, specifically generative modeling and density estimation, has become an immensely popular subject in recent years by virtue of its outstanding performance on sophisticated data such as images and texts. Nevertheless, a theoretical understanding of its success is still incomplete. One mystery is the paradox between memorization and generalization: In theory, the model is trained to be exactly the same as the empirical distribution of the finite samples, whereas in practice, the trained model can generate new samples or estimate the likelihood of unseen samples. Likewise, the overwhelming diversity of distribution learning models calls for a unified perspective on this subject. This paper provides a mathematical framework such that all the well-known models can be derived based on simple principles. To demonstrate its efficacy, we present a survey of our results on the approximation error, training error and generalization error of these models, which can all be established based on this framework. In particular, the aforementioned paradox is resolved by proving that these models enjoy implicit regularization during training, so that the generalization error at early-stopping avoids the curse of dimensionality. Furthermore, we provide some new results on landscape analysis and the mode collapse phenomenon.

We study the problem of predicting numeric labels that are constrained to the integers or to a subrange of the integers. For example, the number of up-votes on social media posts, or the number of bicycles available at a public rental station. While it is possible to model these as continuous values, and to apply traditional regression, this approach changes the underlying distribution on the labels from discrete to continuous. Discrete distributions have certain benefits, which leads us to the question whether such integer labels can be modeled directly by a discrete distribution, whose parameters are predicted from the features of a given instance. Moreover, we focus on the use case of output distributions of neural networks, which adds the requirement that the parameters of the distribution be continuous so that backpropagation and gradient descent may be used to learn the weights of the network. We investigate several options for such distributions, some existing and some novel, and test them on a range of tasks, including tabular learning, sequential prediction and image generation. We find that overall the best performance comes from two distributions: Bitwise, which represents the target integer in bits and places a Bernoulli distribution on each, and a discrete analogue of the Laplace distribution, which uses a distribution with exponentially decaying tails around a continuous mean.

We show that taking the width and depth to infinity in a deep neural network with skip connections, when branches are scaled by 1/depth (the only nontrivial scaling), result in the same covariance structure no matter how that limit is taken. This explains why the standard infinite-width-then-depth approach provides practical insights even for networks with depth of the same order as width. We also demonstrate that the pre-activations, in this case, have Gaussian distributions which has direct applications in Bayesian deep learning. We conduct extensive simulations that show an excellent match with our theoretical findings.

We analyse three KV cache quantization schemes under a fair bit budget: KV (scalar MSE baseline), KQV (WHT + MSE on K; WHT + MSE + QJL on V), and QKQV (WHT + MSE + QJL on both). Starting from the Beta distribution on the hypersphere, we trace how QJL on K inflates inner product variance by π/2, which softmax amplifies nonlinearly via Jensen's inequality, and we present statistical inference and information metrics to highlight practical differences. Three empirical findings emerge. (1)~At n=4 (the practically dominant budget), KQV wins on every measure -- KL divergence, geometric K error, and 6D distance -- across all distributions and ranks tested. (2)~The K--V asymmetry is unconditional: QKQV is consistently worse than KQV in KL divergence at every budget and distribution. (3)~A budget-dependent crossover exists: QKQV achieves better geometric K reconstruction at n in {2,3,5}, KQV at n in {4,6}, invariant to rank and tail weight -- an open rate-distortion problem. KL(p_{ref} | p_{quant}), K-only by construction, bridges K direction error to routing corruption and output collapse. We present a sufficient condition when the Jensen mechanism amplifies superlinearly through the softmax. At n in {2,3,5}, QKQV wins geometrically because this assumption does not bind. At n=4, elevated K error and KL divergence for QKQV strongly suggest the Jensen mechanism is the operative cause of the crossover, providing a new perspective and explanation.

Deep neural networks have achieved remarkable accomplishments in practice. The success of these networks hinges on effective initialization methods, which are vital for ensuring stable and rapid convergence during training. Recently, initialization methods that maintain identity transition within layers have shown good efficiency in network training. These techniques (e.g., Fixup) set specific weights to zero to achieve identity control. However, settings of remaining weight (e.g., Fixup uses random values to initialize non-zero weights) will affect the inductive bias that is achieved only by a zero weight, which may be harmful to training. Addressing this concern, we introduce fully identical initialization (IDInit), a novel method that preserves identity in both the main and sub-stem layers of residual networks. IDInit employs a padded identity-like matrix to overcome rank constraints in non-square weight matrices. Furthermore, we show the convergence problem of an identity matrix can be solved by stochastic gradient descent. Additionally, we enhance the universality of IDInit by processing higher-order weights and addressing dead neuron problems. IDInit is a straightforward yet effective initialization method, with improved convergence, stability, and performance across various settings, including large-scale datasets and deep models.

A proper initialization of the weights in a neural network is critical to its convergence. Current insights into weight initialization come primarily from linear activation functions. In this paper, I develop a theory for weight initializations with non-linear activations. First, I derive a general weight initialization strategy for any neural network using activation functions differentiable at 0. Next, I derive the weight initialization strategy for the Rectified Linear Unit (RELU), and provide theoretical insights into why the Xavier initialization is a poor choice with RELU activations. My analysis provides a clear demonstration of the role of non-linearities in determining the proper weight initializations.

Modern language models define distributions over strings, but downstream tasks often require different output formats. For instance, a model that generates byte-pair strings does not directly produce word-level predictions, and a DNA model does not directly produce amino-acid sequences. In such cases, a deterministic string-to-string transformation can convert the model's output to the desired form. This is a familiar pattern in probability theory: applying a function f to a random variable Xsim p yields a transformed random variable f(X) with an induced distribution. While such transformations are occasionally used in language modeling, prior work does not treat them as yielding new, fully functional language models. We formalize this perspective and introduce a general framework for language models derived from deterministic string-to-string transformations. We focus on transformations representable as finite-state transducers -- a commonly used state-machine abstraction for efficient string-to-string mappings. We develop algorithms that compose a language model with an FST to *marginalize* over source strings mapping to a given target, propagating probabilities through the transducer without altering model parameters and enabling *conditioning* on transformed outputs. We present an exact algorithm, an efficient approximation, and a theoretical analysis. We conduct experiments in three domains: converting language models from tokens to bytes, from tokens to words, and from DNA to amino acids. These experiments demonstrate inference-time adaptation of pretrained language models to match application-specific output requirements.

Autoregressive models (ARMs) have become the workhorse for sequence generation tasks, since many problems can be modeled as next-token prediction. While there appears to be a natural ordering for text (i.e., left-to-right), for many data types, such as graphs, the canonical ordering is less obvious. To address this problem, we introduce a variant of ARM that generates high-dimensional data using a probabilistic ordering that is sequentially inferred from data. This model incorporates a trainable probability distribution, referred to as an order-policy, that dynamically decides the autoregressive order in a state-dependent manner. To train the model, we introduce a variational lower bound on the exact log-likelihood, which we optimize with stochastic gradient estimation. We demonstrate experimentally that our method can learn meaningful autoregressive orderings in image and graph generation. On the challenging domain of molecular graph generation, we achieve state-of-the-art results on the QM9 and ZINC250k benchmarks, evaluated using the Fr\'{e}chet ChemNet Distance (FCD).

We introduce a theoretical framework for sampling from unnormalized densities based on a smoothing scheme that uses an isotropic Gaussian kernel with a single fixed noise scale. We prove one can decompose sampling from a density (minimal assumptions made on the density) into a sequence of sampling from log-concave conditional densities via accumulation of noisy measurements with equal noise levels. Our construction is unique in that it keeps track of a history of samples, making it non-Markovian as a whole, but it is lightweight algorithmically as the history only shows up in the form of a running empirical mean of samples. Our sampling algorithm generalizes walk-jump sampling (Saremi & Hyv\"arinen, 2019). The "walk" phase becomes a (non-Markovian) chain of (log-concave) Markov chains. The "jump" from the accumulated measurements is obtained by empirical Bayes. We study our sampling algorithm quantitatively using the 2-Wasserstein metric and compare it with various Langevin MCMC algorithms. We also report a remarkable capacity of our algorithm to "tunnel" between modes of a distribution.

Applying diffusion models in reinforcement learning for long-term planning has gained much attention recently. Several diffusion-based methods have successfully leveraged the modeling capabilities of diffusion for arbitrary distributions. These methods generate subsequent trajectories for planning and have demonstrated significant improvement. However, these methods are limited by their plain base distributions and their overlooking of the diversity of samples, in which different states have different returns. They simply leverage diffusion to learn the distribution of offline dataset, generate the trajectories whose states share the same distribution with the offline dataset. As a result, the probability of these models reaching the high-return states is largely dependent on the dataset distribution. Even equipped with the guidance model, the performance is still suppressed. To address these limitations, in this paper, we propose a novel method called CDiffuser, which devises a return contrast mechanism to pull the states in generated trajectories towards high-return states while pushing them away from low-return states to improve the base distribution. Experiments on 14 commonly used D4RL benchmarks demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed method.

A selector that allocates work across opaque components must evaluate them without being told how they performed. We study the least communication that suffices. Each parent maintains an allocation vector over its children and updates it from outcomes by proportional redistribution. Each child reads the sign of its own allocation change, one bit per round it is selected, so no evaluation message crosses the parent-child boundary. (1) The update preserves the simplex with strict positivity. (2) Conditional on being selected, a child's sign is exactly the root outcome at every depth, a sufficient statistic. The conditioning is necessary. (3) Under interiority a single selector has a unique interior equilibrium, exact and closed-form for N=2, with almost sure convergence under decreasing steps. For general N an equi-ratio condition gives an explicit affine equilibrium. (4) The linearised mean flow has real, strictly negative tangent eigenvalues with explicit bounds for all N >= 2. (5) The mean flow converges globally. An explicit potential, up to normalisation the KL divergence between the failure and slack distributions, decreases at a rate equal to the variance of the equi-ratio statistic. Without interiority the rule drops exactly the children below the surviving support's threshold. (6) The update law composes along a single active path, since ancestors select a node's active rounds but do not alter a realised signal. No joint convergence theorem for a hierarchy whose levels adapt simultaneously is claimed. (7) The one-bit interface admits exactly four deterministic memoryless distortions, and at a single selector passing the bit on unchanged delivers strictly higher mean quality upward than negation or constant transmission. Illustrations on synthetic hierarchies up to 16,384 leaves and three real datasets (3.4 billion comparisons, no mismatches) are consistent with the theory.

In statistics, independent, identically distributed random samples do not carry a natural ordering, and their statistics are typically invariant with respect to permutations of their order. Thus, an n-sample in a space M can be considered as an element of the quotient space of M^n modulo the permutation group. The present paper takes this definition of sample space and the related concept of orbit types as a starting point for developing a geometric perspective on statistics. We aim at deriving a general mathematical setting for studying the behavior of empirical and population means in spaces ranging from smooth Riemannian manifolds to general stratified spaces. We fully describe the orbifold and path-metric structure of the sample space when M is a manifold or path-metric space, respectively. These results are non-trivial even when M is Euclidean. We show that the infinite sample space exists in a Gromov-Hausdorff type sense and coincides with the Wasserstein space of probability distributions on M. We exhibit Fr\'echet means and k-means as metric projections onto 1-skeleta or k-skeleta in Wasserstein space, and we define a new and more general notion of polymeans. This geometric characterization via metric projections applies equally to sample and population means, and we use it to establish asymptotic properties of polymeans such as consistency and asymptotic normality.

We study the problem of learning a neural sampler to generate samples from discrete state spaces where the target probability mass function piproptoe^{-U} is known up to a normalizing constant, which is an important task in fields such as statistical physics, machine learning, combinatorial optimization, etc. To better address this challenging task when the state space has a large cardinality and the distribution is multi-modal, we propose Masked Diffusion Neural Sampler (MDNS), a novel framework for training discrete neural samplers by aligning two path measures through a family of learning objectives, theoretically grounded in the stochastic optimal control of the continuous-time Markov chains. We validate the efficiency and scalability of MDNS through extensive experiments on various distributions with distinct statistical properties, where MDNS learns to accurately sample from the target distributions despite the extremely high problem dimensions and outperforms other learning-based baselines by a large margin. A comprehensive study of ablations and extensions is also provided to demonstrate the efficacy and potential of the proposed framework.

Closed-loop human-AI systems generate high-dimensional behavioural trajectories whose collective dynamics remain obscure. Using 297,915 learners' adaptive-tutoring histories, we define semantic order variables before model fitting and test them in user-disjoint cohorts. The state exhibits reproducible basin-like flow and operationally defined, state-heterogeneous metastable-like kinetics. A construction-matched null distinguishes normalised-memory relaxation from a reproducible excess field. A four-term conditional mechanism recovers population drift (r = 0.946; learner-bootstrap 95% CI, 0.935-0.955). Predictive event-level self-supervised learning recovers the state and learned-plane flow; null-referenced corrections retain directional, partial-amplitude excess-field structure without full calibration. Shuffled-order training reverses learned-plane flow on ordered trajectories; support-alignment randomisation selectively reduces inward transport. Both axes remain linearly accessible without state supervision. Without cross-model fitting, the models share leading population drift (r = 0.866; learner-bootstrap 95% CI, 0.857-0.875) and persistence ordering; residual directions remain model-specific. These results identify an externally anchored leading-order effective field linking empirical dynamics, an interpretable mechanism and neural computation.

We study nonlinear filtering with misspecified initial distributions and dynamics, but a correctly specified observation model. Observations are treated as a random process generated by the true model, rather than as fixed realizations, and both the correct filter and the misspecified filter are analyzed under this common observation law. Our main result is a Bayesian total variation balance identity for the expected change in total variation distance under a Bayesian update: a covariance term minus a non-negative remainder. The identity characterizes conditional and averaged update non-expansivity. Combined with prediction contraction, it yields finite-time bounds separating the initialization error from accumulated dynamical discrepancies, while allowing expansive updates. When the averaged updates are non-expansive and a uniform joint prediction--update coefficient is less than one, a persistent dynamical misspecification yields an asymptotic error bound proportional to the one-step discrepancy. When the conditional updates are non-expansive, we characterize an accumulated joint contraction that implies almost-sure and \(L^1\) coalescence of the true and misspecified filters. Finally, we verify update non-expansivity for scalar Gaussian predictive laws under a variance-ordering condition and, separately, derive explicit prediction contraction bounds for truncated kernels and bounded transition functions with elliptically symmetric noise.

Using the supersymmetric method of random matrix theory within the Heidelberg approach framework we provide statistical description of stationary intensity sampled in locations inside an open wave-chaotic cavity, assuming that the time-reversal invariance inside the cavity is fully broken. In particular, we show that when incoming waves are fed via a finite number M of open channels the probability density {cal P}(I) for the single-point intensity I decays as a power law for large intensities: {cal P}(I)sim I^{-(M+2)}, provided there is no internal losses. This behaviour is in marked difference with the Rayleigh law {cal P}(I)sim exp(-I/I) which turns out to be valid only in the limit Mto infty. We also find the joint probability density of intensities I_1, ldots, I_L in L>1 observation points, and then extract the corresponding statistics for the maximal intensity in the observation pattern. For Lto infty the resulting limiting extreme value statistics (EVS) turns out to be different from the classical EVS distributions.

We study a model of a branching process subject to selection, modeled by giving each family an individual fitness acting as a branching rate, and mutation, modeled by resampling the fitness of a proportion of offspring in each generation. For two large classes of fitness distributions of Gumbel type we determine the growth of the population, almost surely on survival. We then study the empirical fitness distribution in a simplified model, which is numerically indistinguishable from the original model, and show the emergence of a Gaussian travelling wave.

We explore the relations between the zeta distribution and algorithmic information theory via a new model of the transfer learning problem. The program distribution is approximated by a zeta distribution with parameter near 1. We model the training sequence as a stochastic process. We analyze the upper temporal bound for learning a training sequence and its entropy rates, assuming an oracle for the transfer learning problem. We argue from empirical evidence that power-law models are suitable for natural processes. Four sequence models are proposed. Random typing model is like no-free lunch where transfer learning does not work. Zeta process independently samples programs from the zeta distribution. A model of common sub-programs inspired by genetics uses a database of sub-programs. An evolutionary zeta process samples mutations from Zeta distribution. The analysis of stochastic processes inspired by evolution suggest that AI may be feasible in nature, countering no-free lunch sort of arguments.

Power-law distributions occur in many situations of scientific interest and have significant consequences for our understanding of natural and man-made phenomena. Unfortunately, the detection and characterization of power laws is complicated by the large fluctuations that occur in the tail of the distribution -- the part of the distribution representing large but rare events -- and by the difficulty of identifying the range over which power-law behavior holds. Commonly used methods for analyzing power-law data, such as least-squares fitting, can produce substantially inaccurate estimates of parameters for power-law distributions, and even in cases where such methods return accurate answers they are still unsatisfactory because they give no indication of whether the data obey a power law at all. Here we present a principled statistical framework for discerning and quantifying power-law behavior in empirical data. Our approach combines maximum-likelihood fitting methods with goodness-of-fit tests based on the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic and likelihood ratios. We evaluate the effectiveness of the approach with tests on synthetic data and give critical comparisons to previous approaches. We also apply the proposed methods to twenty-four real-world data sets from a range of different disciplines, each of which has been conjectured to follow a power-law distribution. In some cases we find these conjectures to be consistent with the data while in others the power law is ruled out.

We introduce a family of random matrices where correlations between matrix elements are induced via interaction-derived Boltzmann factors. Varying these yields access to different ensembles. We find a universal scaling behavior of the finite-size statistics characterized by a heavy-tailed eigenvalue distribution whose extremes are governed by the Fréchet extreme value distribution for the case corresponding to a ferromagnetic Ising transition. The introduction of a finite density of nonlocal interactions restores standard random-matrix behavior. Suitably rescaled average extremes, playing a physical role as an order parameter, can thus discriminate aspects of the interaction structure; they also yield further nonuniversal information. In particular, the link between maximum eigenvalues and order parameters offers a potential route to resolving long-standing problems in statistical physics, such as deriving the exact magnetization scaling function in the two-dimensional Ising model at criticality.

While score-based generative models are the model of choice across diverse domains, there are limited tools available for controlling inference-time behavior in a principled manner, e.g. for composing multiple pretrained models. Existing classifier-free guidance methods use a simple heuristic to mix conditional and unconditional scores to approximately sample from conditional distributions. However, such methods do not approximate the intermediate distributions, necessitating additional 'corrector' steps. In this work, we provide an efficient and principled method for sampling from a sequence of annealed, geometric-averaged, or product distributions derived from pretrained score-based models. We derive a weighted simulation scheme which we call Feynman-Kac Correctors (FKCs) based on the celebrated Feynman-Kac formula by carefully accounting for terms in the appropriate partial differential equations (PDEs). To simulate these PDEs, we propose Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) resampling algorithms that leverage inference-time scaling to improve sampling quality. We empirically demonstrate the utility of our methods by proposing amortized sampling via inference-time temperature annealing, improving multi-objective molecule generation using pretrained models, and improving classifier-free guidance for text-to-image generation. Our code is available at https://github.com/martaskrt/fkc-diffusion.

Recent advances in Conditional Diffusion Models have led to substantial capabilities in various domains. However, understanding the impact of variations in the initial seed vector remains an underexplored area of concern. Particularly, latent-based diffusion models display inconsistencies in image generation under standard conditions when initialized with suboptimal initial seed vectors. To understand the impact of the initial seed vector on generated samples, we propose a reliability evaluation framework that evaluates the generated samples of a diffusion model when the initial seed vector is subjected to various synthetic shifts. Our results indicate that slight manipulations to the initial seed vector of the state-of-the-art Stable Diffusion (Rombach et al., 2022) can lead to significant disturbances in the generated samples, consequently creating images without the effect of conditioning variables. In contrast, GLIDE (Nichol et al., 2022) stands out in generating reliable samples even when the initial seed vector is transformed. Thus, our study sheds light on the importance of the selection and the impact of the initial seed vector in the latent-based diffusion model.

In the past two years, several points of view have been proposed to address the question of the generalization of the theory of free probability to random tensors with different invariances, and it is unclear at this point whether they lead to the same notions of tensorial free cumulants and freeness. One way to approach this problem, developed by Collins, Gurau and the second named author for local unitary invariant random tensors, relies on finite size quantities involving averages over the invariance group, and whose asymptotics naturally possess the properties expected for tensorial generalizations of free cumulants of arbitrary orders. At this point, this approach has only been carried out for certain distributions, and for a subset of the moments that define such theories, and a more systematic and exhaustive study is lacking. This is the program initiated in this paper: we link this approach to the one proposed by Nechita and Park; extend a number of their results as well as those of the aforementioned paper to arbitrary orders of fluctuations, thereby generalizing higher order free cumulants; push further the study of distributions with larger invariance groups; detail the link with the asymptotics of the free-energies of the tensor HCIZ and BGW integrals; and provide formulae for tensorial free cumulants of products of tensors. Another important question is that of the definition of concrete distributions whose tensorial free-cumulants take non-trivial values. We compute the tensorial free cumulants for Gaussian random tensors with non-trivial covariances, and show that they provide such examples.

In this paper, we study the infinite-depth limit of finite-width residual neural networks with random Gaussian weights. With proper scaling, we show that by fixing the width and taking the depth to infinity, the pre-activations converge in distribution to a zero-drift diffusion process. Unlike the infinite-width limit where the pre-activation converge weakly to a Gaussian random variable, we show that the infinite-depth limit yields different distributions depending on the choice of the activation function. We document two cases where these distributions have closed-form (different) expressions. We further show an intriguing change of regime phenomenon of the post-activation norms when the width increases from 3 to 4. Lastly, we study the sequential limit infinite-depth-then-infinite-width and compare it with the more commonly studied infinite-width-then-infinite-depth limit.

Given a stationary state-space model that relates a sequence of hidden states and corresponding measurements or observations, Bayesian filtering provides a principled statistical framework for inferring the posterior distribution of the current state given all measurements up to the present time. For example, the Apollo lunar module implemented a Kalman filter to infer its location from a sequence of earth-based radar measurements and land safely on the moon. To perform Bayesian filtering, we require a measurement model that describes the conditional distribution of each observation given state. The Kalman filter takes this measurement model to be linear, Gaussian. Here we show how a nonlinear, Gaussian approximation to the distribution of state given observation can be used in conjunction with Bayes' rule to build a nonlinear, non-Gaussian measurement model. The resulting approach, called the Discriminative Kalman Filter (DKF), retains fast closed-form updates for the posterior. We argue there are many cases where the distribution of state given measurement is better-approximated as Gaussian, especially when the dimensionality of measurements far exceeds that of states and the Bernstein-von Mises theorem applies. Online neural decoding for brain-computer interfaces provides a motivating example, where filtering incorporates increasingly detailed measurements of neural activity to provide users control over external devices. Within the BrainGate2 clinical trial, the DKF successfully enabled three volunteers with quadriplegia to control an on-screen cursor in real-time using mental imagery alone. Participant "T9" used the DKF to type out messages on a tablet PC.

We revisit quantum phase estimation algorithms for the purpose of obtaining the energy levels of many-body Hamiltonians and pay particular attention to the statistical analysis of their outputs. We introduce the mean phase direction of the parent distribution associated with eigenstate inputs as a new post-processing tool. By connecting it with the unknown phase, we find that if used as its direct estimator, it exceeds the accuracy of the standard majority rule using one less bit of resolution, making evident that it can also be inverted to provide unbiased estimation. Moreover, we show how to directly use this quantity to accurately find the energy levels when the initialized state is an eigenstate of the simulated propagator during the whole time evolution, which allows for shallower algorithms. We then use IBM Q hardware to carry out the digital quantum simulation of three toy models: a two-level system, a two-spin Ising model and a two-site Hubbard model at half-filling. Methodologies are provided to implement Trotterization and reduce the variability of results in noisy intermediate scale quantum computers.

This monograph develops a unified account of training and inference in Power Law Decoder Representation language models (PLDR-LLMs). Exact finite work identities decompose changes in the absolute energy of the row-centered learned map into parameter contributions, signed interactions, and numerical observation defects. Positive affine blocking retains restarts at the row-constant face, while the augmented AdamW state supplies the complete dynamical description. Predictive renormalization acts on the complete conditional training law for a single pass over distinct corpus target blocks, retaining optimizer memory, remaining data, schedule, and numerical policy. Autonomous reductions require closure; approximate reductions carry successor and emission errors. Finite-population covariance, matched physical clocks, matrix fluxes, and signed temporal energy connect row dynamics to model-wide observations. Absolute row collapse, relative row concentration, operator stabilization, and predictive accuracy are distinguished. Experiments reveal observer and optimizer dependence, reject the tested autonomous row-state candidates, and support finite conditional prediction and state-specific operator reduction. Independent single-pass families exhibit moving finite fluctuation regions without establishing a thermodynamic critical class. Conditional symmetry, head limits, covariance flows, and readout error budgets specify assumptions needed to transfer scaling laws to inference. The theory separates exact identities, conditional dynamical claims, and finite empirical findings, with proofs, selected formal checks, and compact numerical evidence.

I examine some analytical properties of a nonlinear reaction-diffusion system that has been used to model the propagation of a wildfire. I establish global-in-time existence and uniqueness of bounded mild solutions to the Cauchy problem for this system given bounded initial data. In particular, this shows that the model does not allow for thermal blow-up. If the initial temperature and fuel density also satisfy certain integrability conditions, the L^2-norms of these global solutions are uniformly bounded in time. Additionally, I use a bootstrap argument to show that small initial temperatures give rise to solutions that decay to zero as time goes to infinity, proving the existence of initial states that do not develop into travelling combustion waves.

Neural quantum states (NQS) provide a flexible and scalable framework for approximating quantum many-body wavefunctions. Among NQS parameterizations, autoregressive models are especially attractive because they enable exact, independent sampling from the Born distribution, avoiding the autocorrelation and mixing issues of Markov chain methods. Yet their optimization remains comparatively underexplored: Adam is a scalable method but ignores function space geometry, while stochastic reconfiguration is principled but costly and numerically fragile in large models. To address this gap, we show that variational energy minimization can be viewed as an advantage policy-gradient problem over the Born distribution, motivating trust-region optimization for NQS training. We introduce Proximal Wavefunction Optimization (PWO), a principled trust-region algorithm that clips probability-ratio changes in the amplitude channel and phase increments in the phase channel. PWO avoids explicit matrix inversion, reuses samples across multiple updates, and combines the scalability of first-order optimization with theoretical guarantees. Across Ising and frustrated J_1-J_2 one- and two-dimensional spin systems, PWO improves stability and wall-clock convergence over Adam, minSR, and SPRING. Finally, we fine-tune a 1.5B-parameter RWKV-7 model, demonstrating NQS optimization at a scale over three orders of magnitude beyond prior work.

We consider N classical particles interacting via the Coulomb potential in spatial dimension d and in the presence of an external trap, at equilibrium at inverse temperature beta. In the large N limit, the particles are confined within a droplet of finite size. We study smooth linear statistics, i.e. the fluctuations of sums of the form {cal L}_N = sum_{i=1}^N f({bf x}_i), where {bf x}_i's are the positions of the particles and where f({bf x}_i) is a sufficiently regular function. There exists at present standard results for the first and second moments of {cal L}_N in the large N limit, as well as associated Central Limit Theorems in general dimension and for a wide class of confining potentials. Here we obtain explicit expressions for the higher order cumulants of {cal L}_N at large N, when the function f({bf x})=f(|{bf x}|) and the confining potential are both rotationnally invariant. A remarkable feature of our results is that these higher cumulants depend only on the value of f'(|{bf x}|) and its higher order derivatives evaluated exactly at the boundary of the droplet, which in this case is a d-dimensional sphere. In the particular two-dimensional case d=2 at the special value beta=2, a connection to the Ginibre ensemble allows us to derive these results in an alternative way using the tools of determinantal point processes. Finally we also obtain the large deviation form of the full probability distribution function of {cal L}_N.

We establish a fundamental connection between score-based diffusion models and non-equilibrium thermodynamics by deriving performance limits based on entropy rates. Our main theoretical contribution is a lower bound on the negative log-likelihood of the data that relates model performance to entropy rates of diffusion processes. We numerically validate this bound on a synthetic dataset and investigate its tightness. By building a bridge to entropy rates - system, intrinsic, and exchange entropy - we provide new insights into the thermodynamic operation of these models, drawing parallels to Maxwell's demon and implications for thermodynamic computing hardware. Our framework connects generative modeling performance to fundamental physical principles through stochastic thermodynamics.

At the core of modern generative modeling frameworks, including diffusion models, score-based models, and flow matching, is the task of transforming a simple prior distribution into a complex target distribution through stochastic paths in probability space. Schrödinger bridges provide a unifying principle underlying these approaches, framing the problem as determining an optimal stochastic bridge between marginal distribution constraints with minimal-entropy deviations from a pre-defined reference process. This guide develops the mathematical foundations of the Schrödinger bridge problem, drawing on optimal transport, stochastic control, and path-space optimization, and focuses on its dynamic formulation with direct connections to modern generative modeling. We build a comprehensive toolkit for constructing Schrödinger bridges from first principles, and show how these constructions give rise to generalized and task-specific computational methods.

We study finite-alphabet spin models on trees evolving under independent symmetric spin-flip dynamics. On the lattice the time-evolved plus measure of the low temperature Ising model in zero external field was shown to be non-quasilocal for all sufficiently large times in EnFeHoRe02. On the tree however the time-evolved plus phase of the Ising model behaves differently, as the quasilocal Gibbs property is first lost, but then recovered at a later time EnErIaKu12. We first extend this result by showing that large-time reentry into the quasilocal Gibbs regime on the tree happens more generally for all finite alphabet models, when the dynamics is started in f-stable Gibbs states. These are defined in terms of a time-independent sharp condition on the homogeneous recursion f describing the model, which can be checked explicitly. As our second and opposite result, we develop a method for proving large-time persistence of non-quasilocality of time-evolved measures. We show that even all configurations can become bad at large times, when the initial Gibbs measure corresponds to an f-saddle and give an explicit illustration for the Potts model. In our proofs we study the influence of spatially inhomogeneous perturbations to the solutions of a time-dependent fixed point problem.

Constant-step stochastic approximation generally has a nonzero stationary mean error that persists under time averaging. This paper studies that error for nonlinear two-timescale recursions driven by an exogenous finite-state Markov chain. Under stated smoothness assumptions and conditions on the stationary distribution, we derive a first-order bias expansion whose error bound remains uniform as the slow step size becomes much smaller than the fast step size. Fast-manifold coordinates keep the associated covariance equation regular in this limit. For fast step η and slow step varepsilon, the expansion reveals a mixed contribution varepsilon^2/η alongside terms linear in each step size. This dependence matters for bias reduction: along power-law step-size paths, the bias exponents need not be integers, so Richardson--Romberg extrapolation requires weights matched to the path. An exactly solvable nonlinear Markov example verifies the coefficients. We verify localization for temporal-difference learning and compare finite-run extrapolation at equal update budgets. For finite runs, we bound the initialization error of tail averages on both timescales under an additional coupling assumption. In the special case of additive independent noise, signed third-moment cancellation yields a sharper remainder.

Fully-connected deep neural networks with weights initialized from independent Gaussian distributions can be tuned to criticality, which prevents the exponential growth or decay of signals propagating through the network. However, such networks still exhibit fluctuations that grow linearly with the depth of the network, which may impair the training of networks with width comparable to depth. We show analytically that rectangular networks with tanh activations and weights initialized from the ensemble of orthogonal matrices have corresponding preactivation fluctuations which are independent of depth, to leading order in inverse width. Moreover, we demonstrate numerically that, at initialization, all correlators involving the neural tangent kernel (NTK) and its descendants at leading order in inverse width -- which govern the evolution of observables during training -- saturate at a depth of sim 20, rather than growing without bound as in the case of Gaussian initializations. We speculate that this structure preserves finite-width feature learning while reducing overall noise, thus improving both generalization and training speed. We provide some experimental justification by relating empirical measurements of the NTK to the superior performance of deep nonlinear orthogonal networks trained under full-batch gradient descent on the MNIST and CIFAR-10 classification tasks.

We give a quantum algorithm for computing an epsilon-approximate Nash equilibrium of a zero-sum game in a m times n payoff matrix with bounded entries. Given a standard quantum oracle for accessing the payoff matrix our algorithm runs in time O(m + ncdot epsilon^{-2.5} + epsilon^{-3}) and outputs a classical representation of the epsilon-approximate Nash equilibrium. This improves upon the best prior quantum runtime of O(m + n cdot epsilon^{-3}) obtained by [vAG19] and the classic O((m + n) cdot epsilon^{-2}) runtime due to [GK95] whenever epsilon = Omega((m +n)^{-1}). We obtain this result by designing new quantum data structures for efficiently sampling from a slowly-changing Gibbs distribution.

We propose a new approach for generative modeling based on training a neural network to be idempotent. An idempotent operator is one that can be applied sequentially without changing the result beyond the initial application, namely f(f(z))=f(z). The proposed model f is trained to map a source distribution (e.g, Gaussian noise) to a target distribution (e.g. realistic images) using the following objectives: (1) Instances from the target distribution should map to themselves, namely f(x)=x. We define the target manifold as the set of all instances that f maps to themselves. (2) Instances that form the source distribution should map onto the defined target manifold. This is achieved by optimizing the idempotence term, f(f(z))=f(z) which encourages the range of f(z) to be on the target manifold. Under ideal assumptions such a process provably converges to the target distribution. This strategy results in a model capable of generating an output in one step, maintaining a consistent latent space, while also allowing sequential applications for refinement. Additionally, we find that by processing inputs from both target and source distributions, the model adeptly projects corrupted or modified data back to the target manifold. This work is a first step towards a ``global projector'' that enables projecting any input into a target data distribution.

We present a faster algorithm to generate a warm start for sampling an arbitrary logconcave density specified by an evaluation oracle, leading to the first sub-cubic sampling algorithms for inputs in (near-)isotropic position. A long line of prior work incurred a warm-start penalty of at least linear in the dimension, hitting a cubic barrier, even for the special case of uniform sampling from convex bodies. Our improvement relies on two key ingredients of independent interest. (1) We show how to sample given a warm start in weaker notions of distance, in particular q-R\'enyi divergence for q=mathcal{O}(1), whereas previous analyses required stringent infty-R\'enyi divergence (with the exception of Hit-and-Run, whose known mixing time is higher). This marks the first improvement in the required warmness since Lov\'asz and Simonovits (1991). (2) We refine and generalize the log-Sobolev inequality of Lee and Vempala (2018), originally established for isotropic logconcave distributions in terms of the diameter of the support, to logconcave distributions in terms of a geometric average of the support diameter and the largest eigenvalue of the covariance matrix.

We introduce UnpredictaBench, an evaluation that tests the ability of large language models (LLMs) to capture true underlying distributions. As LLMs are increasingly used as substitutes for other entities (e.g., for humans in economic simulations), the tendency of many models to collapse towards a single plausible answer means a failure to capture the unpredictability of real systems. Recent work on improving output diversity is insufficient for this setting: simulation requires samples that are calibrated to a target distribution, not merely varied outputs. UnpredictaBench isolates a simplified but fundamental version of this problem: sampling outcomes from individual target distributions, including canonical statistical distributions, distributions induced by stochastic programs, and natural-language scenarios that describe random processes. We introduce 448 such problems together with KS@N, a general-purpose evaluation metric that quantifies how well a model outputs approximate black-box target distributions via the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistical test. This is the rate at which we fail to reject model samples of size N against ground-truth samples, with larger N indicating greater difficulty. Tested across open and proprietary models, we find a large spread in distributional capabilities. For instance, when models generate samples of size 100 (KS@100, our standard metric), scores range from near 0 to over 20%. No model is able to achieve over 40% at KS@100, showing significant headroom in distributional sampling as a capability. Although adding reasoning can somewhat increase scores, we find no immediate solution for this issue. UnpredictaBench shows that even simple distributional simulation remains challenging, making it a necessary first step toward using LLMs as stand-ins for complex systems.

High-dimensional count data are common in scientific applications, but most diffusion and flow models are designed for continuous or categorical data, and generation often requires many sequential model evaluations. We propose Count Flow Map, a generative model that learns finite-time transitions directly in count space for one- or few-step generation. Our model directly learns stochastic transitions over finite time intervals, using Poisson births and Binomial deaths to preserve nonnegative integer counts without a predefined maximum. These transition models are trained to match the underlying local birth--death dynamics and to maintain consistency across step sizes. We characterize the connection between local dynamics and finite-time transition consistency and derive a bound on the generation error. After validating Count Flow Map in several simulations, including a high-dimensional, high-count setting, we apply it to single-cell drug perturbation prediction and neural population forecasting, where it captures perturbation responses and supports forecasts of high-activity events with only one or a few model evaluations. Together, these experiments demonstrate that Count Flow Map enables high-quality generation directly in count space across inference budgets, from one-step to few-step generation, using a single trained model.

The edge-of-chaos condition preserves first-order input perturbations in wide randomly initialized networks, but physics-informed losses, score matching and derivative regularization depend on higher input derivatives. For smooth scalar-input fully connected networks, using a joint Gaussianity of the finite derivative jet that holds in the infinite-width limit at each fixed depth, we derive mean-field recursions through third order that are exact at the variance fixed point, with finite-depth corrections that decay geometrically. At criticality, the first-derivative variance is depth-invariant, whereas the second-derivative variance grows linearly whenever the activation has nonzero curvature. The resulting third-order system closes on mean-field susceptibilities. For residual networks with branch scale L^{-1/2}, we prove that every fixed finite derivative order has uniformly bounded variance under explicit regularity assumptions. Simulations verify the critical growth laws, the residual bound, and the closed recursion. The results concern initialization, not trained-network performance.

We introduce a novel generative model, the Discrete Distribution Networks (DDN), that approximates data distribution using hierarchical discrete distributions. We posit that since the features within a network inherently capture distributional information, enabling the network to generate multiple samples simultaneously, rather than a single output, may offer an effective way to represent distributions. Therefore, DDN fits the target distribution, including continuous ones, by generating multiple discrete sample points. To capture finer details of the target data, DDN selects the output that is closest to the Ground Truth (GT) from the coarse results generated in the first layer. This selected output is then fed back into the network as a condition for the second layer, thereby generating new outputs more similar to the GT. As the number of DDN layers increases, the representational space of the outputs expands exponentially, and the generated samples become increasingly similar to the GT. This hierarchical output pattern of discrete distributions endows DDN with unique properties: more general zero-shot conditional generation and 1D latent representation. We demonstrate the efficacy of DDN and its intriguing properties through experiments on CIFAR-10 and FFHQ. The code is available at https://discrete-distribution-networks.github.io/

We study a version of adversarial classification where an adversary is empowered to corrupt data inputs up to some distance varepsilon, using tools from variational analysis. In particular, we describe necessary conditions associated with the optimal classifier subject to such an adversary. Using the necessary conditions, we derive a geometric evolution equation which can be used to track the change in classification boundaries as varepsilon varies. This evolution equation may be described as an uncoupled system of differential equations in one dimension, or as a mean curvature type equation in higher dimension. In one dimension, and under mild assumptions on the data distribution, we rigorously prove that one can use the initial value problem starting from varepsilon=0, which is simply the Bayes classifier, in order to solve for the global minimizer of the adversarial problem for small values of varepsilon. In higher dimensions we provide a similar result, albeit conditional to the existence of regular solutions of the initial value problem. In the process of proving our main results we obtain a result of independent interest connecting the original adversarial problem with an optimal transport problem under no assumptions on whether classes are balanced or not. Numerical examples illustrating these ideas are also presented.

Understanding how structured internal structure emerges during neural network training is central to the study of deep learning. We investigate this phenomenon through the group composition task, where a two-layer neural network is trained to predict g_1 star g_2 for elements of a finite group G. By lifting the projected gradient flow to the Fourier domain, we demonstrate that the training dynamics are governed by a Riemannian gradient ascent on a representation-theoretic energy functional. We prove that, under random initialization, this flow drives each neuron to converge almost surely toward a single irreducible representation, while the cross-layer Fourier coefficients achieve a rotational rank-one alignment. This framework provides a representation-theoretic account of feature learning and characterizes a novel low-rank compression phenomenon for matrix-valued group representations. Moreover, for Abelian groups, we provide a complete population-level description: random initialization promotes uniform diversification across nontrivial representations and induces Haar-uniform phases, jointly approximating the indicator via a majority-vote mechanism. We further prove that both phase alignment and representation competition emerge with exponential convergence rates.

In this paper, we study the problem of sampling from a probability distribution using Langevin-type dynamics. We consider overdamped Langevin dynamics perturbed by adding a Stratonovich perturbation that preserves reversibility. We prove an optimal scaling for the Stratonovich perturbation applied to Gaussian target distributions and derive an algorithm to construct such perturbation. Our theoretical results are supplemented by numerical experiments in which we compare our proposed method with nonreversible samplers and overdamped Langevin dynamics. Our numerical experiments demonstrate the efficiency of the approach beyond the quadratic case.

Weak perturbations of equal size can produce terminal Wasserstein errors of different orders. For Gaussian-smoothed infinitely divisible laws, we differentiate distribution functions with respect to variance-weighted Lévy characteristics, including distributional directions generated by moving atoms. We obtain first- and second-order expansions uniform over Lipschitz tests. Gaussian analyticity identifies the signed second coefficient of the Wasserstein-1 distance when the first response is nonzero. When it vanishes, a finite second displacement moment yields a quadratic response, strictly positive for nonzero displacement dispersion. For local balanced remeshing, the error is comparable to the grid-alignment variance, giving sharp quadratic grid rates for compactly supported densities and nonaligned atomic sequences. We derive metric speed and length along admissible non-atomic curves and a response-based linear program with a certified oracle gap and consistent quadrature. We also establish the sharp vanishing-smoothing transition and a multivariate second-order expansion. The Supplement treats state-dependent responses and further stability estimates.

We present a new algorithm to optimize distributions defined implicitly by parameterized stochastic diffusions. Doing so allows us to modify the outcome distribution of sampling processes by optimizing over their parameters. We introduce a general framework for first-order optimization of these processes, that performs jointly, in a single loop, optimization and sampling steps. This approach is inspired by recent advances in bilevel optimization and automatic implicit differentiation, leveraging the point of view of sampling as optimization over the space of probability distributions. We provide theoretical guarantees on the performance of our method, as well as experimental results demonstrating its effectiveness in real-world settings.

Inference-Time Scaling (ITS) has largely succeeded in verifiable domains like math and coding, where cheap verification enables scalable output selection. However, extending ITS to tasks prone to systematic failure - driven by faulty initial assumptions or unmet multidimensional constraints - typically relies on costly external solvers or brittle, model-based verifiers. Our key insight is that the intrinsic statistics of parallel sample sets, specifically length-adjusted tail entropy, provide a robust discriminative signal for solution quality without access to ground truth. Crucially, these statistics serve as a difficulty gate for adaptive compute allocation, dynamically routing problems across scaling regimes. First, Intrinsic Selection (iS) ranks candidates post-hoc, matching consensus-based algorithms across three domains and improving engineering design selection by 20% over pass@1 baselines. Second, Intrinsic Particle Filtering (iPF) generalizes this to step-level resampling, guiding generation toward high-confidence reasoning trajectories to improve pass@1 by 6.1 points on average on hard math problems. Finally, Particle Distillation (dPF) injects privileged guidance via early logit blending and KL-guided resampling, steering generation past systematic reasoning errors to satisfy expert rubrics, yielding up to 26.5% gains on complex clinical responses. Our pipeline applies seamlessly across broad-purpose, domain-specialized, and multimodal architectures, successfully extending ITS to open-ended domains without requiring trained reward models or exact ground-truth verification.

We investigate equilibration and generalized thermalization of the quantum Harmonic chain under local quantum quench. The quench action we consider is connecting two disjoint harmonic chains of different sizes and the system jumps between two integrable settings. We verify the validity of the Generalized Gibbs Ensemble description for this infinite dimensional Hilbert space system and also identify equilibration between the subsystems as in classical systems. Using Bogoliubov transformations, we show that the eigenstates of the system prior to the quench evolve towards the Gibbs Generalized Ensemble description. Eigenstates that are more delocalized (in the sense of inverse participation ratio) prior to the quench, tend to equilibrate more rapidly. Further, through the phase space properties of a Generalized Gibbs Ensemble and the strength of stimulated emission, we identify the necessary criterion on the initial states for such relaxation at late times and also find out the states which would potentially not be described by the Gibbs Generalized Ensemble description.

We consider the problem of approximating a function from L^2 by an element of a given m-dimensional space V_m, associated with some feature map varphi, using evaluations of the function at random points x_1,dots,x_n. After recalling some results on optimal weighted least-squares using independent and identically distributed points, we consider weighted least-squares using projection determinantal point processes (DPP) or volume sampling. These distributions introduce dependence between the points that promotes diversity in the selected features varphi(x_i). We first provide a generalized version of volume-rescaled sampling yielding quasi-optimality results in expectation with a number of samples n = O(mlog(m)), that means that the expected L^2 error is bounded by a constant times the best approximation error in L^2. Also, further assuming that the function is in some normed vector space H continuously embedded in L^2, we further prove that the approximation is almost surely bounded by the best approximation error measured in the H-norm. This includes the cases of functions from L^infty or reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces. Finally, we present an alternative strategy consisting in using independent repetitions of projection DPP (or volume sampling), yielding similar error bounds as with i.i.d. or volume sampling, but in practice with a much lower number of samples. Numerical experiments illustrate the performance of the different strategies.

Existing autoregressive video distillation methods commonly adopt a Distribution Matching Distillation (DMD)-based multi-stage pipeline. However, they typically decouple the initialization and DMD stages -- which then pursue different target distributions -- and judge the intermediate student mainly by visual scores such as VBench. In this paper, we revisit this design from a distributional perspective. Given the mode-seeking nature of the distribution matching loss, a good initialization should match the mode coverage of the target DMD teacher, rather than merely pursuing high quality. To analyze this, we introduce a distributional evaluation protocol that measures precision and coverage between student and teacher distributions in a shared latent space. It exposes differences hidden by visual scores: some initializations reach high precision but low coverage, leading to suboptimal refinement, while mode-covering ones preserve broader support. Furthermore, even when the target distributions are aligned, DMD's reverse-KL objective can still drive the student toward high-probability teacher regions in late training, reducing coverage and diversity. To address this, we propose joint distillation, which combines DMD's mode-seeking objective with a Consistency Distillation-based mode-covering constraint. Experiments show that our method improves generation quality, coverage, and diversity; notably, even with a Wan-1.3B DMD teacher, it outperforms baselines refined with Wan-14B, underscoring the importance of distributional alignment in autoregressive video distillation.

Score-based diffusion models generate samples from an unknown target distribution using a time-reversed diffusion process. While such models represent state-of-the-art approaches in industrial applications such as artificial image generation, it has recently been noted that their performance can be further improved by considering injection noise with heavy tailed characteristics. Here, I present a generalization of generative diffusion processes to a wide class of non-Gaussian noise processes. I consider forward processes driven by standard Gaussian noise with super-imposed Poisson jumps representing a finite activity Levy process. The generative process is shown to be governed by a generalized score function that depends on the jump amplitude distribution and can be estimated by minimizing a simple MSE loss as in conventional Gaussian models. Both probability flow ODE and SDE formulations are derived using basic technical effort. A detailed implementation for a pure jump process with Laplace distributed amplitudes yields a generalized score function in closed analytical form and is shown to outperform the equivalent Gaussian model in specific parameter regimes.

Quantum generative models use the intrinsic probabilistic nature of quantum mechanics to learn and reproduce complex probability distributions. In this paper, we present an implementation of a 3-qubit quantum circuit Born machine trained to model a 3-bit Gaussian distribution using a Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence loss and parameter-shift gradient optimization. The variational quantum circuit consists of layers of parameterized rotations and entangling gates, and is optimized such that the Born rule output distribution closely matches the target distribution. We detail the mathematical formulation of the model distribution, the KL divergence cost function, and the parameter-shift rule for gradient evaluation. Training results on a statevector simulator show that the KL divergence is minimized to near zero, and the final generated distribution aligns quantitatively with the target probabilities. We analyze the convergence behavior and discuss the implications for scalability and quantum advantage. Our results demonstrate the feasibility of small-scale quantum generative learning and provide insight into the training dynamics of quantum circuit models.

Discrete diffusion models with absorbing processes have shown promise in language modeling. The key quantities to be estimated are the ratios between the marginal probabilities of two transitive states at all timesteps, called the concrete score. In this paper, we reveal that the concrete score in absorbing diffusion can be expressed as conditional probabilities of clean data, multiplied by a time-dependent scalar in an analytic form. Motivated by this finding, we propose reparameterized absorbing discrete diffusion (RADD), a dedicated diffusion model without time-condition that characterizes the time-independent conditional probabilities. Besides its simplicity, RADD can reduce the number of function evaluations (NFEs) by caching the output of the time-independent network when the noisy sample remains unchanged in a sampling interval. Empirically, RADD is up to 3.5 times faster while achieving similar performance with the strongest baseline. Built upon the new perspective of conditional distributions, we further unify absorbing discrete diffusion and any-order autoregressive models (AO-ARMs), showing that the upper bound on the negative log-likelihood for the diffusion model can be interpreted as an expected negative log-likelihood for AO-ARMs. Further, our RADD models achieve SOTA performance among diffusion models on 5 zero-shot language modeling benchmarks (measured by perplexity) at the GPT-2 scale. Our code is available at https://github.com/ML-GSAI/RADD.

We develop analytical and particle-based methods for uncertainty propagation in random neural network models, where both the inputs and network parameters are allowed to be random. Building on the piecewise-linear structure of the Leaky ReLU activation function, we derive a local approximation of the neural network output with respect to perturbations in both its inputs and parameters. This approximation is exact for perturbations that preserve the network activation pattern, and it allows us to compute analytical expressions for the probability density function and characteristic function of the network output, together with closed-form approximations for its mean and covariance. We extend this uncertainty propagation framework to autonomous dynamical systems whose one-step evolution map is represented by a random neural network. Repeated application of this map defines an autoregressive model, for which we derive recursive equations to propagate uncertainty in both the state and network parameters over time. These equations explicitly account for the state-parameter cross-covariance that develops under successive iterations of the network. Numerical experiments on the Lorenz-63 system and the Kuramoto-Sivashinsky equation demonstrate accurate uncertainty propagation through the predictability horizon and the applicability of the proposed framework to high-dimensional dynamical systems.

All current formulations of thermodynamics invoke some form of coarse-graining or ensembles as the supposed link between their own laws and the microscopic laws of motion. They deal only with ensemble-averages, expectation values, macroscopic limits, infinite heat baths, etc., not with the details of physical variables of individual microscopic systems. They are consistent with the laws of motion for finite systems only in certain approximations, which improve with increasing scale, given various assumptions about initial conditions which are neither specified precisely nor even thought to hold exactly in nature. Here I propose a new formulation of the zeroth, first and second laws, improving upon the axiomatic approach to thermodynamics (Carath\'eodory, 1909; Lieb & Yngvason, 1999), via the principles of the recently proposed constructor theory. Specifically, I provide a non-approximative, scale-independent formulation of 'adiabatic accessibility'; this in turn provides a non-approximative, scale-independent distinction between work and heat and reveals an unexpected connection between information theory and the first law of thermodynamics (not just the second). It also achieves the long-sought unification of the axiomatic approach with Kelvin's.

The choice of approximate posterior distribution is one of the core problems in variational inference. Most applications of variational inference employ simple families of posterior approximations in order to allow for efficient inference, focusing on mean-field or other simple structured approximations. This restriction has a significant impact on the quality of inferences made using variational methods. We introduce a new approach for specifying flexible, arbitrarily complex and scalable approximate posterior distributions. Our approximations are distributions constructed through a normalizing flow, whereby a simple initial density is transformed into a more complex one by applying a sequence of invertible transformations until a desired level of complexity is attained. We use this view of normalizing flows to develop categories of finite and infinitesimal flows and provide a unified view of approaches for constructing rich posterior approximations. We demonstrate that the theoretical advantages of having posteriors that better match the true posterior, combined with the scalability of amortized variational approaches, provides a clear improvement in performance and applicability of variational inference.

We study the scaling properties of avalanche activity in the two-dimensional Abelian sandpile model. Instead of the conventional avalanche size distribution, we analyze the site activity distribution, which measures how often a site participates in avalanches when grains are added across the lattice. Using numerical simulations for system sizes up to \(L = 160\), averaged over \(10^4\) configurations, we determine the probability distribution \(P(A, L)\) of site activities. The results show that \(P(A, L)\) follows a finite-size scaling form \[ P(A, L) \sim L^{-2} F\Big(A{L^2}\Big). \] For small values \(A \ll L^2\) the scaling function behaves as \[ F(u) \sim u^{-1/2}, \quad corresponding to \quad P(A) \sim 1{L}, \] while for large activities \(A \sim O(L^2)\) the distribution decays as \[ F(u) \sim \exp\big(-c_3 u - c_4 u^2\big). \] The crossover between these two regimes occurs at \[ A^* \sim 0.1 \, L^2, \] marking the threshold between typical and highly excitable sites. This characterization of local avalanche activity provides complementary information to the usual avalanche size statistics, highlighting how local regions serve as frequent conduits for critical dynamics. These results may help connect sandpile models to real-world self-organized critical systems where only partial local activity can be observed.

We present InterHandGen, a novel framework that learns the generative prior of two-hand interaction. Sampling from our model yields plausible and diverse two-hand shapes in close interaction with or without an object. Our prior can be incorporated into any optimization or learning methods to reduce ambiguity in an ill-posed setup. Our key observation is that directly modeling the joint distribution of multiple instances imposes high learning complexity due to its combinatorial nature. Thus, we propose to decompose the modeling of joint distribution into the modeling of factored unconditional and conditional single instance distribution. In particular, we introduce a diffusion model that learns the single-hand distribution unconditional and conditional to another hand via conditioning dropout. For sampling, we combine anti-penetration and classifier-free guidance to enable plausible generation. Furthermore, we establish the rigorous evaluation protocol of two-hand synthesis, where our method significantly outperforms baseline generative models in terms of plausibility and diversity. We also demonstrate that our diffusion prior can boost the performance of two-hand reconstruction from monocular in-the-wild images, achieving new state-of-the-art accuracy.

Reinforcement learning (RL) for continuous control typically employs distributions whose support covers the entire action space. In this work, we investigate the colloquially known phenomenon that trained agents often prefer actions at the boundaries of that space. We draw theoretical connections to the emergence of bang-bang behavior in optimal control, and provide extensive empirical evaluation across a variety of recent RL algorithms. We replace the normal Gaussian by a Bernoulli distribution that solely considers the extremes along each action dimension - a bang-bang controller. Surprisingly, this achieves state-of-the-art performance on several continuous control benchmarks - in contrast to robotic hardware, where energy and maintenance cost affect controller choices. Since exploration, learning,and the final solution are entangled in RL, we provide additional imitation learning experiments to reduce the impact of exploration on our analysis. Finally, we show that our observations generalize to environments that aim to model real-world challenges and evaluate factors to mitigate the emergence of bang-bang solutions. Our findings emphasize challenges for benchmarking continuous control algorithms, particularly in light of potential real-world applications.

This paper discusses the weight parametrization of two standard 1-Lipschitz network architectures, the Almost-Orthogonal-Layers (AOL) and the SDP-based Lipschitz Layers (SLL). It examines their impact on initialization for deep 1-Lipschitz feedforward networks, and discusses underlying issues surrounding this initialization. These networks are mainly used in certifiably robust classification applications to combat adversarial attacks by limiting the impact of perturbations on the classification output. Exact and upper bounds for the parameterized weight variance were calculated assuming a standard Normal distribution initialization; additionally, an upper bound was computed assuming a Generalized Normal Distribution, generalizing the proof for Uniform, Laplace, and Normal distribution weight initializations. It is demonstrated that the weight variance holds no bearing on the output variance distribution and that only the dimension of the weight matrices matters. Additionally, this paper demonstrates that the weight initialization always causes deep 1-Lipschitz networks to decay to zero.