Daily Papers

Classification is essential to the applications in the field of data mining, artificial intelligence, and fault detection. There exists a strong need in developing accurate, suitable, and efficient classification methods and algorithms with broad applicability. Random forest is a general algorithm that is often used for classification under complex conditions. Although it has been widely adopted, its combination with diverse fuzzy theory is still worth exploring. In this paper, we propose the intuitionistic fuzzy random forest (IFRF), a new random forest ensemble of intuitionistic fuzzy decision trees (IFDT). Such trees in forest use intuitionistic fuzzy information gain to select features and consider hesitation in information transmission. The proposed method enjoys the power of the randomness from bootstrapped sampling and feature selection, the flexibility of fuzzy logic and fuzzy sets, and the robustness of multiple classifier systems. Extensive experiments demonstrate that the IFRF has competitative and superior performance compared to other state-of-the-art fuzzy and ensemble algorithms. IFDT is more suitable for ensemble learning with outstanding classification accuracy. This study is the first to propose a random forest ensemble based on the intuitionistic fuzzy theory.

The domain of machine learning is confronted with a crucial research area known as class imbalance learning, which presents considerable hurdles in precise classification of minority classes. This issue can result in biased models where the majority class takes precedence in the training process, leading to the underrepresentation of the minority class. The random vector functional link (RVFL) network is a widely used and effective learning model for classification due to its good generalization performance and efficiency. However, it suffers when dealing with imbalanced datasets. To overcome this limitation, we propose a novel graph embedded intuitionistic fuzzy RVFL for class imbalance learning (GE-IFRVFL-CIL) model incorporating a weighting mechanism to handle imbalanced datasets. The proposed GE-IFRVFL-CIL model offers plethora of benefits: (i) leveraging graph embedding to preserve the inherent topological structure of the datasets, (ii) employing intuitionistic fuzzy theory to handle uncertainty and imprecision in the data, (iii) and the most important, it tackles class imbalance learning. The amalgamation of a weighting scheme, graph embedding, and intuitionistic fuzzy sets leads to the superior performance of the proposed models on KEEL benchmark imbalanced datasets with and without Gaussian noise. Furthermore, we implemented the proposed GE-IFRVFL-CIL on the ADNI dataset and achieved promising results, demonstrating the model's effectiveness in real-world applications. The proposed GE-IFRVFL-CIL model offers a promising solution to address the class imbalance issue, mitigates the detrimental effect of noise and outliers, and preserves the inherent geometrical structures of the dataset.

The growing complexity of machine learning (ML) models in big data analytics, especially in domains such as environmental monitoring, highlights the critical need for interpretability and explainability to promote trust, ethical considerations, and regulatory adherence (e.g., GDPR). Traditional "black-box" models obstruct transparency, whereas post-hoc explainable AI (XAI) techniques like LIME and SHAP frequently compromise accuracy or fail to deliver inherent insights. This paper presents a novel framework that combines type-2 fuzzy sets, granular computing, and clustering to boost explainability and fairness in big data environments. When applied to the UCI Air Quality dataset, the framework effectively manages uncertainty in noisy sensor data, produces linguistic rules, and assesses fairness using silhouette scores and entropy. Key contributions encompass: (1) A type-2 fuzzy clustering approach that enhances cohesion by about 4% compared to type-1 methods (silhouette 0.365 vs. 0.349) and improves fairness (entropy 0.918); (2) Incorporation of fairness measures to mitigate biases in unsupervised scenarios; (3) A rule-based component for intrinsic XAI, achieving an average coverage of 0.65; (4) Scalable assessments showing linear runtime (roughly 0.005 seconds for sampled big data sizes). Experimental outcomes reveal superior performance relative to baselines such as DBSCAN and Agglomerative Clustering in terms of interpretability, fairness, and efficiency. Notably, the proposed method achieves a 4% improvement in silhouette score over type-1 fuzzy clustering and outperforms baselines in fairness (entropy reduction by up to 1%) and efficiency.

We present a detailed theoretical and computational analysis of the Watset meta-algorithm for fuzzy graph clustering, which has been found to be widely applicable in a variety of domains. This algorithm creates an intermediate representation of the input graph that reflects the "ambiguity" of its nodes. Then, it uses hard clustering to discover clusters in this "disambiguated" intermediate graph. After outlining the approach and analyzing its computational complexity, we demonstrate that Watset shows competitive results in three applications: unsupervised synset induction from a synonymy graph, unsupervised semantic frame induction from dependency triples, and unsupervised semantic class induction from a distributional thesaurus. Our algorithm is generic and can be also applied to other networks of linguistic data.

We present the design and implementation of a custom discrete optimization technique for building rule lists over a categorical feature space. Our algorithm produces rule lists with optimal training performance, according to the regularized empirical risk, with a certificate of optimality. By leveraging algorithmic bounds, efficient data structures, and computational reuse, we achieve several orders of magnitude speedup in time and a massive reduction of memory consumption. We demonstrate that our approach produces optimal rule lists on practical problems in seconds. Our results indicate that it is possible to construct optimal sparse rule lists that are approximately as accurate as the COMPAS proprietary risk prediction tool on data from Broward County, Florida, but that are completely interpretable. This framework is a novel alternative to CART and other decision tree methods for interpretable modeling.

Multi-label classification can effectively identify the relevant labels of an instance from a given set of labels. However,the modeling of the relationship between the features and the labels is critical to the classification performance. To this end, we propose a new multi-label classification method, called Multi-Label Takagi-Sugeno-Kang Fuzzy System (ML-TSK FS), to improve the classification performance. The structure of ML-TSK FS is designed using fuzzy rules to model the relationship between features and labels. The fuzzy system is trained by integrating fuzzy inference based multi-label correlation learning with multi-label regression loss. The proposed ML-TSK FS is evaluated experimentally on 12 benchmark multi-label datasets. 1 The results show that the performance of ML-TSK FS is competitive with existing methods in terms of various evaluation metrics, indicating that it is able to model the feature-label relationship effectively using fuzzy inference rules and enhances the classification performance.

We revisit Zadeh's notion of "evidence of the second kind" and show that it provides the foundation for a general theory of epistemic random fuzzy sets, which generalizes both the Dempster-Shafer theory of belief functions and possibility theory. In this perspective, Dempster-Shafer theory deals with belief functions generated by random sets, while possibility theory deals with belief functions induced by fuzzy sets. The more general theory allows us to represent and combine evidence that is both uncertain and fuzzy. We demonstrate the application of this formalism to statistical inference, and show that it makes it possible to reconcile the possibilistic interpretation of likelihood with Bayesian inference.

Random forests and, more generally, (decision\nobreakdash-)tree ensembles are widely used methods for classification and regression. Recent algorithmic advances allow to compute decision trees that are optimal for various measures such as their size or depth. We are not aware of such research for tree ensembles and aim to contribute to this area. Mainly, we provide two novel algorithms and corresponding lower bounds. First, we are able to carry over and substantially improve on tractability results for decision trees, obtaining a (6delta D S)^S cdot poly-time algorithm, where S is the number of cuts in the tree ensemble, D the largest domain size, and delta is the largest number of features in which two examples differ. To achieve this, we introduce the witness-tree technique which also seems promising for practice. Second, we show that dynamic programming, which has been successful for decision trees, may also be viable for tree ensembles, providing an ell^n cdot poly-time algorithm, where ell is the number of trees and n the number of examples. Finally, we compare the number of cuts necessary to classify training data sets for decision trees and tree ensembles, showing that ensembles may need exponentially fewer cuts for increasing number of trees.

Fuzzy similarity join is an important database operator widely used in practice. So far the research community has focused exclusively on optimizing fuzzy join scalability. However, practitioners today also struggle to optimize fuzzy-join quality, because they face a daunting space of parameters (e.g., distance-functions, distance-thresholds, tokenization-options, etc.), and often have to resort to a manual trial-and-error approach to program these parameters in order to optimize fuzzy-join quality. This key challenge of automatically generating high-quality fuzzy-join programs has received surprisingly little attention thus far. In this work, we study the problem of "auto-program" fuzzy-joins. Leveraging a geometric interpretation of distance-functions, we develop an unsupervised Auto-FuzzyJoin framework that can infer suitable fuzzy-join programs on given input tables, without requiring explicit human input such as labeled training data. Using Auto-FuzzyJoin, users only need to provide two input tables L and R, and a desired precision target tau (say 0.9). Auto-FuzzyJoin leverages the fact that one of the input is a reference table to automatically program fuzzy-joins that meet the precision target tau in expectation, while maximizing fuzzy-join recall (defined as the number of correctly joined records). Experiments on both existing benchmarks and a new benchmark with 50 fuzzy-join tasks created from Wikipedia data suggest that the proposed Auto-FuzzyJoin significantly outperforms existing unsupervised approaches, and is surprisingly competitive even against supervised approaches (e.g., Magellan and DeepMatcher) when 50\% of ground-truth labels are used as training data.

Link prediction is crucial for understanding complex networks but traditional Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) often rely on random negative sampling, leading to suboptimal performance. This paper introduces Fuzzy Graph Attention Networks (FGAT), a novel approach integrating fuzzy rough sets for dynamic negative sampling and enhanced node feature aggregation. Fuzzy Negative Sampling (FNS) systematically selects high-quality negative edges based on fuzzy similarities, improving training efficiency. FGAT layer incorporates fuzzy rough set principles, enabling robust and discriminative node representations. Experiments on two research collaboration networks demonstrate FGAT's superior link prediction accuracy, outperforming state-of-the-art baselines by leveraging the power of fuzzy rough sets for effective negative sampling and node feature learning.

Decision trees are a crucial class of models offering robust predictive performance and inherent interpretability across various domains, including healthcare, finance, and logistics. However, current tree induction methods often face limitations such as suboptimal solutions from greedy methods or prohibitive computational costs and limited applicability of exact optimization approaches. To address these challenges, we propose an evolutionary optimization method for decision tree induction based on genetic programming (GP). Our key innovation is the integration of semantic priors and domain-specific knowledge about the search space into the optimization algorithm. To this end, we introduce LLEGO, a framework that incorporates semantic priors into genetic search operators through the use of Large Language Models (LLMs), thereby enhancing search efficiency and targeting regions of the search space that yield decision trees with superior generalization performance. This is operationalized through novel genetic operators that work with structured natural language prompts, effectively utilizing LLMs as conditional generative models and sources of semantic knowledge. Specifically, we introduce fitness-guided crossover to exploit high-performing regions, and diversity-guided mutation for efficient global exploration of the search space. These operators are controlled by corresponding hyperparameters that enable a more nuanced balance between exploration and exploitation across the search space. Empirically, we demonstrate across various benchmarks that LLEGO evolves superior-performing trees compared to existing tree induction methods, and exhibits significantly more efficient search performance compared to conventional GP approaches.

Semi-supervised semantic segmentation (SSSS) faces persistent challenges in effectively leveraging unlabeled data, such as ineffective utilization of pseudo-labels, exacerbation of class imbalance biases, and neglect of prediction uncertainty. Current approaches often discard uncertain regions through strict thresholding favouring dominant classes. To address these limitations, we introduce a holistic framework that transforms uncertainty into a learning asset through four principal components: (1) fuzzy pseudo-labeling, which preserves soft class distributions from top-K predictions to enrich supervision; (2) uncertainty-aware dynamic weighting, that modulate pixel-wise contributions via entropy-based reliability scores; (3) adaptive class rebalancing, which dynamically adjust losses to counteract long-tailed class distributions; and (4) lightweight contrastive regularization, that encourage compact and discriminative feature embeddings. Extensive experiments on benchmarks demonstrate that our method outperforms current state-of-the-art approaches, achieving significant improvements in the segmentation of under-represented classes and ambiguous regions.

Decision trees are renowned for their interpretability capability to achieve high predictive performance, especially on tabular data. Traditionally, they are constructed through recursive algorithms, where they partition the data at every node in a tree. However, identifying the best partition is challenging, as decision trees optimized for local segments may not bring global generalization. To address this, we introduce MetaTree, which trains a transformer-based model on filtered outputs from classical algorithms to produce strong decision trees for classification. Specifically, we fit both greedy decision trees and optimized decision trees on a large number of datasets. We then train MetaTree to produce the trees that achieve strong generalization performance. This training enables MetaTree to not only emulate these algorithms, but also to intelligently adapt its strategy according to the context, thereby achieving superior generalization performance.

We study the problem of explainability-first clustering where explainability becomes a first-class citizen for clustering. Previous clustering approaches use decision trees for explanation, but only after the clustering is completed. In contrast, our approach is to perform clustering and decision tree training holistically where the decision tree's performance and size also influence the clustering results. We assume the attributes for clustering and explaining are distinct, although this is not necessary. We observe that our problem is a monotonic optimization where the objective function is a difference of monotonic functions. We then propose an efficient branch-and-bound algorithm for finding the best parameters that lead to a balance of cluster distortion and decision tree explainability. Our experiments show that our method can improve the explainability of any clustering that fits in our framework.

Despite the rapid development of natural language processing (NLP) implementation in electronic medical records (EMRs), Chinese EMRs processing remains challenging due to the limited corpus and specific grammatical characteristics, especially for radiology reports. In this study, we designed an NLP pipeline for the direct extraction of clinically relevant features from Chinese radiology reports, which is the first key step in computer-aided radiologic diagnosis. The pipeline was comprised of named entity recognition, synonyms normalization, and relationship extraction to finally derive the radiological features composed of one or more terms. In named entity recognition, we incorporated lexicon into deep learning model bidirectional long short-term memory-conditional random field (BiLSTM-CRF), and the model finally achieved an F1 score of 93.00%. With the extracted radiological features, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator and machine learning methods (support vector machine, random forest, decision tree, and logistic regression) were used to build the classifiers for liver cancer prediction. For liver cancer diagnosis, random forest had the highest predictive performance in liver cancer diagnosis (F1 score 86.97%, precision 87.71%, and recall 86.25%). This work was a comprehensive NLP study focusing on Chinese radiology reports and the application of NLP in cancer risk prediction. The proposed NLP pipeline for the radiological feature extraction could be easily implemented in other kinds of Chinese clinical texts and other disease predictive tasks.

Medical image classification requires not only high predictive performance but also interpretability to ensure clinical trust and adoption. Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) offer a powerful framework for modeling relational structures within datasets; however, standard GNNs often operate as black boxes, limiting transparency and usability, particularly in clinical settings. In this work, we present an interpretable graph-based learning framework named FireGNN that integrates trainable fuzzy rules into GNNs for medical image classification. These rules embed topological descriptors - node degree, clustering coefficient, and label agreement - using learnable thresholds and sharpness parameters to enable intrinsic symbolic reasoning. Additionally, we explore auxiliary self-supervised tasks (e.g., homophily prediction, similarity entropy) as a benchmark to evaluate the contribution of topological learning. Our fuzzy-rule-enhanced model achieves strong performance across five MedMNIST benchmarks and the synthetic dataset MorphoMNIST, while also generating interpretable rule-based explanations. To our knowledge, this is the first integration of trainable fuzzy rules within a GNN. Source Code: https://github.com/basiralab/FireGNN

This study leverages the data representation capability of fuzzy based membership-mappings for practical secure distributed deep learning using fully homomorphic encryption. The impracticality issue of secure machine (deep) learning with fully homomorphic encrypted data, arising from large computational overhead, is addressed via applying fuzzy attributes. Fuzzy attributes are induced by globally convergent and robust variational membership-mappings based local deep models. Fuzzy attributes combine the local deep models in a robust and flexible manner such that the global model can be evaluated homomorphically in an efficient manner using a boolean circuit composed of bootstrapped binary gates. The proposed method, while preserving privacy in a distributed learning scenario, remains accurate, practical, and scalable. The method is evaluated through numerous experiments including demonstrations through MNIST dataset and Freiburg Groceries Dataset. Further, a biomedical application related to mental stress detection on individuals is considered.

Applying DevOps practices to machine learning system is termed as MLOps and machine learning systems evolve on new data unlike traditional systems on requirements. The objective of MLOps is to establish a connection between different open-source tools to construct a pipeline that can automatically perform steps to construct a dataset, train the machine learning model and deploy the model to the production as well as store different versions of model and dataset. Benefits of MLOps is to make sure the fast delivery of the new trained models to the production to have accurate results. Furthermore, MLOps practice impacts the overall quality of the software products and is completely dependent on open-source tools and selection of relevant open-source tools is considered as challenged while a generalized method to select an appropriate open-source tools is desirable. In this paper, we present a framework for recommendation system that processes the contextual information (e.g., nature of data, type of the data) of the machine learning project and recommends a relevant toolchain (tech-stack) for the operationalization of machine learning systems. To check the applicability of the proposed framework, four different approaches i.e., rule-based, random forest, decision trees and k-nearest neighbors were investigated where precision, recall and f-score is measured, the random forest out classed other approaches with highest f-score value of 0.66.

Despite their remarkable effectiveness and broad application, the drivers of success underlying ensembles of trees are still not fully understood. In this paper, we highlight how interpreting tree ensembles as adaptive and self-regularizing smoothers can provide new intuition and deeper insight to this topic. We use this perspective to show that, when studied as smoothers, randomized tree ensembles not only make predictions that are quantifiably more smooth than the predictions of the individual trees they consist of, but also further regulate their smoothness at test-time based on the dissimilarity between testing and training inputs. First, we use this insight to revisit, refine and reconcile two recent explanations of forest success by providing a new way of quantifying the conjectured behaviors of tree ensembles objectively by measuring the effective degree of smoothing they imply. Then, we move beyond existing explanations for the mechanisms by which tree ensembles improve upon individual trees and challenge the popular wisdom that the superior performance of forests should be understood as a consequence of variance reduction alone. We argue that the current high-level dichotomy into bias- and variance-reduction prevalent in statistics is insufficient to understand tree ensembles -- because the prevailing definition of bias does not capture differences in the expressivity of the hypothesis classes formed by trees and forests. Instead, we show that forests can improve upon trees by three distinct mechanisms that are usually implicitly entangled. In particular, we demonstrate that the smoothing effect of ensembling can reduce variance in predictions due to noise in outcome generation, reduce variability in the quality of the learned function given fixed input data and reduce potential bias in learnable functions by enriching the available hypothesis space.

Yggdrasil Decision Forests is a library for the training, serving and interpretation of decision forest models, targeted both at research and production work, implemented in C++, and available in C++, command line interface, Python (under the name TensorFlow Decision Forests), JavaScript, Go, and Google Sheets (under the name Simple ML for Sheets). The library has been developed organically since 2018 following a set of four design principles applicable to machine learning libraries and frameworks: simplicity of use, safety of use, modularity and high-level abstraction, and integration with other machine learning libraries. In this paper, we describe those principles in detail and present how they have been used to guide the design of the library. We then showcase the use of our library on a set of classical machine learning problems. Finally, we report a benchmark comparing our library to related solutions.

Data-driven optimization uses contextual information and machine learning algorithms to find solutions to decision problems with uncertain parameters. While a vast body of work is dedicated to interpreting machine learning models in the classification setting, explaining decision pipelines involving learning algorithms remains unaddressed. This lack of interpretability can block the adoption of data-driven solutions as practitioners may not understand or trust the recommended decisions. We bridge this gap by introducing a counterfactual explanation methodology tailored to explain solutions to data-driven problems. We introduce two classes of explanations and develop methods to find nearest explanations of random forest and nearest-neighbor predictors. We demonstrate our approach by explaining key problems in operations management such as inventory management and routing.

We introduce a boosting algorithm to pre-process data for fairness. Starting from an initial fair but inaccurate distribution, our approach shifts towards better data fitting while still ensuring a minimal fairness guarantee. To do so, it learns the sufficient statistics of an exponential family with boosting-compliant convergence. Importantly, we are able to theoretically prove that the learned distribution will have a representation rate and statistical rate data fairness guarantee. Unlike recent optimization based pre-processing methods, our approach can be easily adapted for continuous domain features. Furthermore, when the weak learners are specified to be decision trees, the sufficient statistics of the learned distribution can be examined to provide clues on sources of (un)fairness. Empirical results are present to display the quality of result on real-world data.

Benchmarks of machine learning models often include many datasets, making evaluation expensive. For efficiency, it is preferable to perform evaluations on small, representative datasets instead. The selection of such subsets typically relies on heuristics and is rarely analyzed for the robustness of the resulting model rankings. We introduce a framework to perform the task of selecting datasets subsets with an evaluation of how different selection strategies preserve the global model rankings. Our framework includes bootstrap aggregation, which provides valid confidence intervals, allowing a principled comparison of selection strategies. We consider clustering, design criteria (A/D-optimality), random baselines, and greedy farthest-first (FAFI). For the latter, we derive upper bounds on selection quality in terms of ranking errors as a function of the number of selected datasets. Empirically, in time series classification (TSC, 112 datasets) and in a supplementary natural language processing benchmark derived from MTEB (57 tasks), several selection strategies improve rank preservation compared with random subsets, including simple FAFI. In contrast, in recommender systems (30 datasets), the improvement of strategies over random selection is small and typically statistically insignificant. For TSC, our best-performing strategy achieves a Spearman correlation of 0.95 with the full benchmark model rankings using only five selected datasets. Additional experiments indicate that the effectiveness of selection approaches depends on both the quality of dataset representations and the scale of the benchmarking regime.

In recent years, much of the research on clustering algorithms has primarily focused on enhancing their accuracy and efficiency, frequently at the expense of interpretability. However, as these methods are increasingly being applied in high-stakes domains such as healthcare, finance, and autonomous systems, the need for transparent and interpretable clustering outcomes has become a critical concern. This is not only necessary for gaining user trust but also for satisfying the growing ethical and regulatory demands in these fields. Ensuring that decisions derived from clustering algorithms can be clearly understood and justified is now a fundamental requirement. To address this need, this paper provides a comprehensive and structured review of the current state of explainable clustering algorithms, identifying key criteria to distinguish between various methods. These insights can effectively assist researchers in making informed decisions about the most suitable explainable clustering methods for specific application contexts, while also promoting the development and adoption of clustering algorithms that are both efficient and transparent. For convenient access and reference, an open repository organizes representative and emerging interpretable clustering methods under the taxonomy proposed in this survey, available at https://github.com/hulianyu/Awesome-Interpretable-Clustering

Despite the growing popularity of explainable and interpretable machine learning, there is still surprisingly limited work on inherently interpretable clustering methods. Recently, there has been a surge of interest in explaining the classic k-means algorithm, leading to efficient algorithms that approximate k-means clusters using axis-aligned decision trees. However, interpretable variants of k-means have limited applicability in practice, where more flexible clustering methods are often needed to obtain useful partitions of the data. In this work, we investigate interpretable kernel clustering, and propose algorithms that construct decision trees to approximate the partitions induced by kernel k-means, a nonlinear extension of k-means. We further build on previous work on explainable k-means and demonstrate how a suitable choice of features allows preserving interpretability without sacrificing approximation guarantees on the interpretable model.

Purpose: This study investigated how nodule segmentation and surrounding peritumoral regions influence radionics-based lung cancer classification. Methods: Using 3D CT scans with bounding box annotated nodules, we generated 3D segmentations using four techniques: Otsu, Fuzzy C-Means (FCM), Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM), and K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN). Radiomics features were extracted using the PyRadiomics library, and multiple machine-learning-based classifiers, including Random Forest, Logistic Regression, and KNN, were employed to classify nodules as cancerous or non-cancerous. The best-performing segmentation and model were further analyzed by expanding the initial nodule segmentation into the peritumoral region (2, 4, 6, 8, 10, and 12 mm) to understand the influence of the surrounding area on classification. Additionally, we compared our results to deep learning-based feature extractors Foundation Model for Cancer Biomarkers (FMCB) and other state-of-the-art baseline models. Results: Incorporating peritumoral regions significantly enhanced performance, with the best result obtained at 8 mm expansion (AUC = 0.78). Compared to image-based deep learning models, such as FMCB (AUC = 0.71) and ResNet50-SWS++ (AUC = 0.71), our radiomics-based approach demonstrated superior classification accuracy. Conclusion: The study highlights the importance of peritumoral expansion in improving lung cancer classification using radiomics. These findings can inform the development of more robust AI-driven diagnostic tools.

In the real world, the frequency of occurrence of objects is naturally skewed forming long-tail class distributions, which results in poor performance on the statistically rare classes. A promising solution is to mine tail-class examples to balance the training dataset. However, mining tail-class examples is a very challenging task. For instance, most of the otherwise successful uncertainty-based mining approaches struggle due to distortion of class probabilities resulting from skewness in data. In this work, we propose an effective, yet simple, approach to overcome these challenges. Our framework enhances the subdued tail-class activations and, thereafter, uses a one-class data-centric approach to effectively identify tail-class examples. We carry out an exhaustive evaluation of our framework on three datasets spanning over two computer vision tasks. Substantial improvements in the minority-class mining and fine-tuned model's performance strongly corroborate the value of our proposed solution.

Pairwise clustering, in general, partitions a set of items via a known similarity function. In our treatment, clustering is modeled as a transductive prediction problem. Thus rather than beginning with a known similarity function, the function instead is hidden and the learner only receives a random sample consisting of a subset of the pairwise similarities. An additional set of pairwise side-information may be given to the learner, which then determines the inductive bias of our algorithms. We measure performance not based on the recovery of the hidden similarity function, but instead on how well we classify each item. We give tight bounds on the number of misclassifications. We provide two algorithms. The first algorithm SACA is a simple agglomerative clustering algorithm which runs in near linear time, and which serves as a baseline for our analyses. Whereas the second algorithm, RGCA, enables the incorporation of side-information which may lead to improved bounds at the cost of a longer running time.

Fuzzy reasoning is vital due to the frequent use of imprecise information in daily contexts. However, the ability of current large language models (LLMs) to handle such reasoning remains largely uncharted. In this paper, we introduce a new benchmark, FRoG, for fuzzy reasoning, featuring real-world mathematical word problems that incorporate generalized quantifiers. Our experimental findings reveal that fuzzy reasoning continues to pose significant challenges for LLMs. Moreover, we find that existing methods designed to enhance reasoning do not consistently improve performance in tasks involving fuzzy logic. Additionally, our results show an inverse scaling effect in the performance of LLMs on FRoG. Interestingly, we also demonstrate that strong mathematical reasoning skills are not necessarily indicative of success on our benchmark.

Hyperbolic geometry is gaining traction in machine learning for its effectiveness at capturing hierarchical structures in real-world data. Hyperbolic spaces, where neighborhoods grow exponentially, offer substantial advantages and consistently deliver state-of-the-art results across diverse applications. However, hyperbolic classifiers often grapple with computational challenges. Methods reliant on Riemannian optimization frequently exhibit sluggishness, stemming from the increased computational demands of operations on Riemannian manifolds. In response to these challenges, we present hyperDT, a novel extension of decision tree algorithms into hyperbolic space. Crucially, hyperDT eliminates the need for computationally intensive Riemannian optimization, numerically unstable exponential and logarithmic maps, or pairwise comparisons between points by leveraging inner products to adapt Euclidean decision tree algorithms to hyperbolic space. Our approach is conceptually straightforward and maintains constant-time decision complexity while mitigating the scalability issues inherent in high-dimensional Euclidean spaces. Building upon hyperDT we introduce hyperRF, a hyperbolic random forest model. Extensive benchmarking across diverse datasets underscores the superior performance of these models, providing a swift, precise, accurate, and user-friendly toolkit for hyperbolic data analysis.

As machine learning models become increasingly larger, trained weakly supervised on large, possibly uncurated data sets, it becomes increasingly important to establish mechanisms for inspecting, interacting, and revising models to mitigate learning shortcuts and guarantee their learned knowledge is aligned with human knowledge. The recently proposed XIL framework was developed for this purpose, and several such methods have been introduced, each with individual motivations and methodological details. In this work, we provide a unification of various XIL methods into a single typology by establishing a common set of basic modules. In doing so, we pave the way for a principled comparison of existing, but, importantly, also future XIL approaches. In addition, we discuss existing and introduce novel measures and benchmarks for evaluating the overall abilities of a XIL method. Given this extensive toolbox, including our typology, measures, and benchmarks, we finally compare several recent XIL methods methodologically and quantitatively. In our evaluations, all methods prove to revise a model successfully. However, we found remarkable differences in individual benchmark tasks, revealing valuable application-relevant aspects for integrating these benchmarks in developing future methods.

To improve patient survival and treatment outcomes, early diagnosis of brain tumors is an essential task. It is a difficult task to evaluate the magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) images manually. Thus, there is a need for digital methods for tumor diagnosis with better accuracy. However, it is still a very challenging task in assessing their shape, volume, boundaries, tumor detection, size, segmentation, and classification. In this proposed work, we propose a hybrid ensemble method using Random Forest (RF), K-Nearest Neighbour, and Decision Tree (DT) (KNN-RF-DT) based on Majority Voting Method. It aims to calculate the area of the tumor region and classify brain tumors as benign and malignant. In the beginning, segmentation is done by using Otsu's Threshold method. Feature Extraction is done by using Stationary Wavelet Transform (SWT), Principle Component Analysis (PCA), and Gray Level Co-occurrence Matrix (GLCM), which gives thirteen features for classification. The classification is done by hybrid ensemble classifier (KNN-RF-DT) based on the Majority Voting method. Overall it aimed at improving the performance by traditional classifiers instead of going to deep learning. Traditional classifiers have an advantage over deep learning algorithms because they require small datasets for training and have low computational time complexity, low cost to the users, and can be easily adopted by less skilled people. Overall, our proposed method is tested upon dataset of 2556 images, which are used in 85:15 for training and testing respectively and gives good accuracy of 97.305%.

In order to fully harness the potential of machine learning, it is crucial to establish a system that renders the field more accessible and less daunting for individuals who may not possess a comprehensive understanding of its intricacies. The paper describes the design of a system that integrates AutoML, XAI, and synthetic data generation to provide a great UX design for users. The system allows users to navigate and harness the power of machine learning while abstracting its complexities and providing high usability. The paper proposes two novel classifiers, Logistic Regression Forest and Support Vector Tree, for enhanced model performance, achieving 96\% accuracy on a diabetes dataset and 93\% on a survey dataset. The paper also introduces a model-dependent local interpreter called MEDLEY and evaluates its interpretation against LIME, Greedy, and Parzen. Additionally, the paper introduces LLM-based synthetic data generation, library-based data generation, and enhancing the original dataset with GAN. The findings on synthetic data suggest that enhancing the original dataset with GAN is the most reliable way to generate synthetic data, as evidenced by KS tests, standard deviation, and feature importance. The authors also found that GAN works best for quantitative datasets.

Despite the popularity of explainable AI, there is limited work on effective methods for unsupervised learning. We study algorithms for k-means clustering, focusing on a trade-off between explainability and accuracy. Following prior work, we use a small decision tree to partition a dataset into k clusters. This enables us to explain each cluster assignment by a short sequence of single-feature thresholds. While larger trees produce more accurate clusterings, they also require more complex explanations. To allow flexibility, we develop a new explainable k-means clustering algorithm, ExKMC, that takes an additional parameter k' geq k and outputs a decision tree with k' leaves. We use a new surrogate cost to efficiently expand the tree and to label the leaves with one of k clusters. We prove that as k' increases, the surrogate cost is non-increasing, and hence, we trade explainability for accuracy. Empirically, we validate that ExKMC produces a low cost clustering, outperforming both standard decision tree methods and other algorithms for explainable clustering. Implementation of ExKMC available at https://github.com/navefr/ExKMC.

Colon Cancer is one of the most common types of cancer. The treatment is planned to depend on the grade or stage of cancer. One of the preconditions for grading of colon cancer is to segment the glandular structures of tissues. Manual segmentation method is very time-consuming, and it leads to life risk for the patients. The principal objective of this project is to assist the pathologist to accurate detection of colon cancer. In this paper, the authors have proposed an algorithm for an automatic segmentation of glands in colon histology using local intensity and texture features. Here the dataset images are cropped into patches with different window sizes and taken the intensity of those patches, and also calculated texture-based features. Random forest classifier has been used to classify this patch into different labels. A multilevel random forest technique in a hierarchical way is proposed. This solution is fast, accurate and it is very much applicable in a clinical setup.

Reasoning on knowledge graphs is a challenging task because it utilizes observed information to predict the missing one. Particularly, answering complex queries based on first-order logic is one of the crucial tasks to verify learning to reason abilities for generalization and composition. Recently, the prevailing method is query embedding which learns the embedding of a set of entities and treats logic operations as set operations and has shown great empirical success. Though there has been much research following the same formulation, many of its claims lack a formal and systematic inspection. In this paper, we rethink this formulation and justify many of the previous claims by characterizing the scope of queries investigated previously and precisely identifying the gap between its formulation and its goal, as well as providing complexity analysis for the currently investigated queries. Moreover, we develop a new dataset containing ten new types of queries with features that have never been considered and therefore can provide a thorough investigation of complex queries. Finally, we propose a new neural-symbolic method, Fuzzy Inference with Truth value (FIT), where we equip the neural link predictors with fuzzy logic theory to support end-to-end learning using complex queries with provable reasoning capability. Empirical results show that our method outperforms previous methods significantly in the new dataset and also surpasses previous methods in the existing dataset at the same time.

In this research, we aim to compare the performance of different classical machine learning models and neural networks in identifying the frequency of occurrence of each digit in a given number. It has various applications in machine learning and computer vision, e.g. for obtaining the frequency of a target object in a visual scene. We considered this problem as a hybrid of classification and regression tasks. We carefully create our own datasets to observe systematic differences between different methods. We evaluate each of the methods using different metrics across multiple datasets.The metrics of performance used were the root mean squared error and mean absolute error for regression evaluation, and accuracy for classification performance evaluation. We observe that decision trees and random forests overfit to the dataset, due to their inherent bias, and are not able to generalize well. We also observe that the neural networks significantly outperform the classical machine learning models in terms of both the regression and classification metrics for both the 6-digit and 10-digit number datasets. Dataset and code are available on github.

A fuzzy theoretic analytical approach was recently introduced that leads to efficient and robust models while addressing automatically the typical issues associated to parametric deep models. However, a formal conceptualization of the fuzzy theoretic analytical deep models is still not available. This paper introduces using measure theoretic basis the notion of membership-mapping for representing data points through attribute values (motivated by fuzzy theory). A property of the membership-mapping, that can be exploited for data representation learning, is of providing an interpolation on the given data points in the data space. An analytical approach to the variational learning of a membership-mappings based data representation model is considered.

This paper presents algorithms for hierarchical, agglomerative clustering which perform most efficiently in the general-purpose setup that is given in modern standard software. Requirements are: (1) the input data is given by pairwise dissimilarities between data points, but extensions to vector data are also discussed (2) the output is a "stepwise dendrogram", a data structure which is shared by all implementations in current standard software. We present algorithms (old and new) which perform clustering in this setting efficiently, both in an asymptotic worst-case analysis and from a practical point of view. The main contributions of this paper are: (1) We present a new algorithm which is suitable for any distance update scheme and performs significantly better than the existing algorithms. (2) We prove the correctness of two algorithms by Rohlf and Murtagh, which is necessary in each case for different reasons. (3) We give well-founded recommendations for the best current algorithms for the various agglomerative clustering schemes.

Despite the recent successes of deep learning, such models are still far from some human abilities like learning from few examples, reasoning and explaining decisions. In this paper, we focus on organ annotation in medical images and we introduce a reasoning framework that is based on learning fuzzy relations on a small dataset for generating explanations. Given a catalogue of relations, it efficiently induces the most relevant relations and combines them for building constraints in order to both solve the organ annotation task and generate explanations. We test our approach on a publicly available dataset of medical images where several organs are already segmented. A demonstration of our model is proposed with an example of explained annotations. It was trained on a small training set containing as few as a couple of examples.

FOLD-RM is an explainable machine learning classification algorithm that uses training data to create a set of classification rules. In this paper we introduce CON-FOLD which extends FOLD-RM in several ways. CON-FOLD assigns probability-based confidence scores to rules learned for a classification task. This allows users to know how confident they should be in a prediction made by the model. We present a confidence-based pruning algorithm that uses the unique structure of FOLD-RM rules to efficiently prune rules and prevent overfitting. Furthermore, CON-FOLD enables the user to provide pre-existing knowledge in the form of logic program rules that are either (fixed) background knowledge or (modifiable) initial rule candidates. The paper describes our method in detail and reports on practical experiments. We demonstrate the performance of the algorithm on benchmark datasets from the UCI Machine Learning Repository. For that, we introduce a new metric, Inverse Brier Score, to evaluate the accuracy of the produced confidence scores. Finally we apply this extension to a real world example that requires explainability: marking of student responses to a short answer question from the Australian Physics Olympiad.

More and more processes governing our lives use in some part an automatic decision step, where -- based on a feature vector derived from an applicant -- an algorithm has the decision power over the final outcome. Here we present a simple idea which gives some of the power back to the applicant by providing her with alternatives which would make the decision algorithm decide differently. It is based on a formalization reminiscent of methods used for evasion attacks, and consists in enumerating the subspaces where the classifiers decides the desired output. This has been implemented for the specific case of decision forests (ensemble methods based on decision trees), mapping the problem to an iterative version of enumerating k-cliques.

While machine learning shows promise for maternal health risk prediction, clinical adoption in resource-constrained settings faces a critical barrier: lack of explainability and trust. This study presents a hybrid explainable AI (XAI) framework combining ante-hoc fuzzy logic with post-hoc SHAP explanations, validated through systematic clinician feedback. We developed a fuzzy-XGBoost model on 1,014 maternal health records, achieving 88.67% accuracy (ROC-AUC: 0.9703). A validation study with 14 healthcare professionals in Bangladesh revealed strong preference for hybrid explanations (71.4% across three clinical cases) with 54.8% expressing trust for clinical use. SHAP analysis identified healthcare access as the primary predictor, with the engineered fuzzy risk score ranking third, validating clinical knowledge integration (r=0.298). Clinicians valued integrated clinical parameters but identified critical gaps: obstetric history, gestational age, and connectivity barriers. This work demonstrates that combining interpretable fuzzy rules with feature importance explanations enhances both utility and trust, providing practical insights for XAI deployment in maternal healthcare.

Constantly discovering novel concepts is crucial in evolving environments. This paper explores the underexplored task of Continual Generalized Category Discovery (C-GCD), which aims to incrementally discover new classes from unlabeled data while maintaining the ability to recognize previously learned classes. Although several settings are proposed to study the C-GCD task, they have limitations that do not reflect real-world scenarios. We thus study a more practical C-GCD setting, which includes more new classes to be discovered over a longer period, without storing samples of past classes. In C-GCD, the model is initially trained on labeled data of known classes, followed by multiple incremental stages where the model is fed with unlabeled data containing both old and new classes. The core challenge involves two conflicting objectives: discover new classes and prevent forgetting old ones. We delve into the conflicts and identify that models are susceptible to prediction bias and hardness bias. To address these issues, we introduce a debiased learning framework, namely Happy, characterized by Hardness-aware prototype sampling and soft entropy regularization. For the prediction bias, we first introduce clustering-guided initialization to provide robust features. In addition, we propose soft entropy regularization to assign appropriate probabilities to new classes, which can significantly enhance the clustering performance of new classes. For the harness bias, we present the hardness-aware prototype sampling, which can effectively reduce the forgetting issue for previously seen classes, especially for difficult classes. Experimental results demonstrate our method proficiently manages the conflicts of C-GCD and achieves remarkable performance across various datasets, e.g., 7.5% overall gains on ImageNet-100. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/mashijie1028/Happy-CGCD.

This study aims to develop and evaluate an ensemble machine learning-based framework for the automatic detection of Wide QRS Complex Tachycardia (WCT) from ECG signals, emphasizing diagnostic accuracy and interpretability using Explainable AI. The proposed system integrates ensemble learning techniques, i.e., an optimized Random Forest known as CardioForest, and models like XGBoost and LightGBM. The models were trained and tested on ECG data from the publicly available MIMIC-IV dataset. The testing was carried out with the assistance of accuracy, balanced accuracy, precision, recall, F1 score, ROC-AUC, and error rate (RMSE, MAE) measures. In addition, SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) was used to ascertain model explainability and clinical relevance. The CardioForest model performed best on all metrics, achieving a test accuracy of 94.95%, a balanced accuracy of 88.31%, and high precision and recall metrics. SHAP analysis confirmed the model's ability to rank the most relevant ECG features, such as QRS duration, in accordance with clinical intuitions, thereby fostering trust and usability in clinical practice. The findings recognize CardioForest as an extremely dependable and interpretable WCT detection model. Being able to offer accurate predictions and transparency through explainability makes it a valuable tool to help cardiologists make timely and well-informed diagnoses, especially for high-stakes and emergency scenarios.

Is there a statistical difference between Naive Bayes and Random Forest in terms of recall, f-measure, and precision for predicting software defects? By utilizing systematic literature review and meta-analysis, we are answering this question. We conducted a systematic literature review by establishing criteria to search and choose papers, resulting in five studies. After that, using the meta-data and forest-plots of five chosen papers, we conducted a meta-analysis to compare the two models. The results have shown that there is no significant statistical evidence that Naive Bayes perform differently from Random Forest in terms of recall, f-measure, and precision.

Federated learning has emerged as a promising distributed learning paradigm that facilitates collaborative learning among multiple parties without transferring raw data. However, most existing federated learning studies focus on either horizontal or vertical data settings, where the data of different parties are assumed to be from the same feature or sample space. In practice, a common scenario is the hybrid data setting, where data from different parties may differ both in the features and samples. To address this, we propose HybridTree, a novel federated learning approach that enables federated tree learning on hybrid data. We observe the existence of consistent split rules in trees. With the help of these split rules, we theoretically show that the knowledge of parties can be incorporated into the lower layers of a tree. Based on our theoretical analysis, we propose a layer-level solution that does not need frequent communication traffic to train a tree. Our experiments demonstrate that HybridTree can achieve comparable accuracy to the centralized setting with low computational and communication overhead. HybridTree can achieve up to 8 times speedup compared with the other baselines.

Despite widespread adoption, machine learning models remain mostly black boxes. Understanding the reasons behind predictions is, however, quite important in assessing trust, which is fundamental if one plans to take action based on a prediction, or when choosing whether to deploy a new model. Such understanding also provides insights into the model, which can be used to transform an untrustworthy model or prediction into a trustworthy one. In this work, we propose LIME, a novel explanation technique that explains the predictions of any classifier in an interpretable and faithful manner, by learning an interpretable model locally around the prediction. We also propose a method to explain models by presenting representative individual predictions and their explanations in a non-redundant way, framing the task as a submodular optimization problem. We demonstrate the flexibility of these methods by explaining different models for text (e.g. random forests) and image classification (e.g. neural networks). We show the utility of explanations via novel experiments, both simulated and with human subjects, on various scenarios that require trust: deciding if one should trust a prediction, choosing between models, improving an untrustworthy classifier, and identifying why a classifier should not be trusted.

We propose a criterion for discrimination against a specified sensitive attribute in supervised learning, where the goal is to predict some target based on available features. Assuming data about the predictor, target, and membership in the protected group are available, we show how to optimally adjust any learned predictor so as to remove discrimination according to our definition. Our framework also improves incentives by shifting the cost of poor classification from disadvantaged groups to the decision maker, who can respond by improving the classification accuracy. In line with other studies, our notion is oblivious: it depends only on the joint statistics of the predictor, the target and the protected attribute, but not on interpretation of individualfeatures. We study the inherent limits of defining and identifying biases based on such oblivious measures, outlining what can and cannot be inferred from different oblivious tests. We illustrate our notion using a case study of FICO credit scores.

Prediction markets are used in real life to predict outcomes of interest such as presidential elections. This paper presents a mathematical theory of artificial prediction markets for supervised learning of conditional probability estimators. The artificial prediction market is a novel method for fusing the prediction information of features or trained classifiers, where the fusion result is the contract price on the possible outcomes. The market can be trained online by updating the participants' budgets using training examples. Inspired by the real prediction markets, the equations that govern the market are derived from simple and reasonable assumptions. Efficient numerical algorithms are presented for solving these equations. The obtained artificial prediction market is shown to be a maximum likelihood estimator. It generalizes linear aggregation, existent in boosting and random forest, as well as logistic regression and some kernel methods. Furthermore, the market mechanism allows the aggregation of specialized classifiers that participate only on specific instances. Experimental comparisons show that the artificial prediction markets often outperform random forest and implicit online learning on synthetic data and real UCI datasets. Moreover, an extensive evaluation for pelvic and abdominal lymph node detection in CT data shows that the prediction market improves adaboost's detection rate from 79.6% to 81.2% at 3 false positives/volume.

A key challenge in eXplainable Artificial Intelligence is the well-known tradeoff between the transparency of an algorithm (i.e., how easily a human can directly understand the algorithm, as opposed to receiving a post-hoc explanation), and its accuracy. We report on the design of a new deep network that achieves improved transparency without sacrificing accuracy. We design a deep convolutional neuro-fuzzy inference system (DCNFIS) by hybridizing fuzzy logic and deep learning models and show that DCNFIS performs as accurately as existing convolutional neural networks on four well-known datasets and 3 famous architectures. Our performance comparison with available fuzzy methods show that DCNFIS is now state-of-the-art fuzzy system and outperforms other shallow and deep fuzzy methods to the best of our knowledge. At the end, we exploit the transparency of fuzzy logic by deriving explanations, in the form of saliency maps, from the fuzzy rules encoded in the network to take benefit of fuzzy logic upon regular deep learning methods. We investigate the properties of these explanations in greater depth using the Fashion-MNIST dataset.

Many clustering schemes are defined by optimizing an objective function defined on the partitions of the underlying set of a finite metric space. In this paper, we construct a framework for studying what happens when we instead impose various structural conditions on the clustering schemes, under the general heading of functoriality. Functoriality refers to the idea that one should be able to compare the results of clustering algorithms as one varies the data set, for example by adding points or by applying functions to it. We show that within this framework, one can prove a theorems analogous to one of J. Kleinberg, in which for example one obtains an existence and uniqueness theorem instead of a non-existence result. We obtain a full classification of all clustering schemes satisfying a condition we refer to as excisiveness. The classification can be changed by varying the notion of maps of finite metric spaces. The conditions occur naturally when one considers clustering as the statistical version of the geometric notion of connected components. By varying the degree of functoriality that one requires from the schemes it is possible to construct richer families of clustering schemes that exhibit sensitivity to density.

Building on developments in machine learning and prior work in the science of judicial prediction, we construct a model designed to predict the behavior of the Supreme Court of the United States in a generalized, out-of-sample context. To do so, we develop a time evolving random forest classifier which leverages some unique feature engineering to predict more than 240,000 justice votes and 28,000 cases outcomes over nearly two centuries (1816-2015). Using only data available prior to decision, our model outperforms null (baseline) models at both the justice and case level under both parametric and non-parametric tests. Over nearly two centuries, we achieve 70.2% accuracy at the case outcome level and 71.9% at the justice vote level. More recently, over the past century, we outperform an in-sample optimized null model by nearly 5%. Our performance is consistent with, and improves on the general level of prediction demonstrated by prior work; however, our model is distinctive because it can be applied out-of-sample to the entire past and future of the Court, not a single term. Our results represent an important advance for the science of quantitative legal prediction and portend a range of other potential applications.

We consider a class of assortment optimization problems in an offline data-driven setting. A firm does not know the underlying customer choice model but has access to an offline dataset consisting of the historically offered assortment set, customer choice, and revenue. The objective is to use the offline dataset to find an optimal assortment. Due to the combinatorial nature of assortment optimization, the problem of insufficient data coverage is likely to occur in the offline dataset. Therefore, designing a provably efficient offline learning algorithm becomes a significant challenge. To this end, we propose an algorithm referred to as Pessimistic ASsortment opTimizAtion (PASTA for short) designed based on the principle of pessimism, that can correctly identify the optimal assortment by only requiring the offline data to cover the optimal assortment under general settings. In particular, we establish a regret bound for the offline assortment optimization problem under the celebrated multinomial logit model. We also propose an efficient computational procedure to solve our pessimistic assortment optimization problem. Numerical studies demonstrate the superiority of the proposed method over the existing baseline method.

Categorical variables often appear in datasets for classification and regression tasks, and they need to be encoded into numerical values before training. Since many encoders have been developed and can significantly impact performance, choosing the appropriate encoder for a task becomes a time-consuming yet important practical issue. This study broadly classifies machine learning models into three categories: 1) ATI models that implicitly perform affine transformations on inputs, such as multi-layer perceptron neural network; 2) Tree-based models that are based on decision trees, such as random forest; and 3) the rest, such as kNN. Theoretically, we prove that the one-hot encoder is the best choice for ATI models in the sense that it can mimic any other encoders by learning suitable weights from the data. We also explain why the target encoder and its variants are the most suitable encoders for tree-based models. This study conducted comprehensive computational experiments to evaluate 14 encoders, including one-hot and target encoders, along with eight common machine-learning models on 28 datasets. The computational results agree with our theoretical analysis. The findings in this study shed light on how to select the suitable encoder for data scientists in fields such as fraud detection, disease diagnosis, etc.

Kubernetes is a free, open-source container orchestration system for deploying and managing Docker containers that host microservices. Kubernetes cluster logs help in determining the reason for the failure. However, as systems become more complex, identifying failure reasons manually becomes more difficult and time-consuming. This study aims to identify effective and efficient classification algorithms to automatically determine the failure reason. We compare five classification algorithms, Support Vector Machines, K-Nearest Neighbors, Random Forest, Gradient Boosting Classifier, and Multilayer Perceptron. Our results indicate that Random Forest produces good accuracy while requiring fewer computational resources than other algorithms.

Random forests is a common non-parametric regression technique which performs well for mixed-type data and irrelevant covariates, while being robust to monotonic variable transformations. Existing random forest implementations target regression or classification. We introduce the RFCDE package for fitting random forest models optimized for nonparametric conditional density estimation, including joint densities for multiple responses. This enables analysis of conditional probability distributions which is useful for propagating uncertainty and of joint distributions that describe relationships between multiple responses and covariates. RFCDE is released under the MIT open-source license and can be accessed at https://github.com/tpospisi/rfcde . Both R and Python versions, which call a common C++ library, are available.

Classification on long-tailed distributed data is a challenging problem, which suffers from serious class-imbalance and accordingly unpromising performance especially on tail classes. Recently, the ensembling based methods achieve the state-of-the-art performance and show great potential. However, there are two limitations for current methods. First, their predictions are not trustworthy for failure-sensitive applications. This is especially harmful for the tail classes where the wrong predictions is basically frequent. Second, they assign unified numbers of experts to all samples, which is redundant for easy samples with excessive computational cost. To address these issues, we propose a Trustworthy Long-tailed Classification (TLC) method to jointly conduct classification and uncertainty estimation to identify hard samples in a multi-expert framework. Our TLC obtains the evidence-based uncertainty (EvU) and evidence for each expert, and then combines these uncertainties and evidences under the Dempster-Shafer Evidence Theory (DST). Moreover, we propose a dynamic expert engagement to reduce the number of engaged experts for easy samples and achieve efficiency while maintaining promising performances. Finally, we conduct comprehensive experiments on the tasks of classification, tail detection, OOD detection and failure prediction. The experimental results show that the proposed TLC outperforms existing methods and is trustworthy with reliable uncertainty.

Anti-money laundering (AML) regulations play a critical role in safeguarding financial systems, but bear high costs for institutions and drive financial exclusion for those on the socioeconomic and international margins. The advent of cryptocurrency has introduced an intriguing paradox: pseudonymity allows criminals to hide in plain sight, but open data gives more power to investigators and enables the crowdsourcing of forensic analysis. Meanwhile advances in learning algorithms show great promise for the AML toolkit. In this workshop tutorial, we motivate the opportunity to reconcile the cause of safety with that of financial inclusion. We contribute the Elliptic Data Set, a time series graph of over 200K Bitcoin transactions (nodes), 234K directed payment flows (edges), and 166 node features, including ones based on non-public data; to our knowledge, this is the largest labelled transaction data set publicly available in any cryptocurrency. We share results from a binary classification task predicting illicit transactions using variations of Logistic Regression (LR), Random Forest (RF), Multilayer Perceptrons (MLP), and Graph Convolutional Networks (GCN), with GCN being of special interest as an emergent new method for capturing relational information. The results show the superiority of Random Forest (RF), but also invite algorithmic work to combine the respective powers of RF and graph methods. Lastly, we consider visualization for analysis and explainability, which is difficult given the size and dynamism of real-world transaction graphs, and we offer a simple prototype capable of navigating the graph and observing model performance on illicit activity over time. With this tutorial and data set, we hope to a) invite feedback in support of our ongoing inquiry, and b) inspire others to work on this societally important challenge.

Recent advancements have scaled neural networks to unprecedented sizes, achieving remarkable performance across a wide range of tasks. However, deploying these large-scale models on resource-constrained devices poses significant challenges due to substantial storage and computational requirements. Neural network pruning has emerged as an effective technique to mitigate these limitations by reducing model size and complexity. In this paper, we introduce an intuitive and interpretable pruning method based on activation statistics, rooted in information theory and statistical analysis. Our approach leverages the statistical properties of neuron activations to identify and remove weights with minimal contributions to neuron outputs. Specifically, we build a distribution of weight contributions across the dataset and utilize its parameters to guide the pruning process. Furthermore, we propose a Pruning-aware Training strategy that incorporates an additional regularization term to enhance the effectiveness of our pruning method. Extensive experiments on multiple datasets and network architectures demonstrate that our method consistently outperforms several baseline and state-of-the-art pruning techniques.

Decision-focused learning (DFL) is an emerging paradigm that integrates machine learning (ML) and constrained optimization to enhance decision quality by training ML models in an end-to-end system. This approach shows significant potential to revolutionize combinatorial decision-making in real-world applications that operate under uncertainty, where estimating unknown parameters within decision models is a major challenge. This paper presents a comprehensive review of DFL, providing an in-depth analysis of both gradient-based and gradient-free techniques used to combine ML and constrained optimization. It evaluates the strengths and limitations of these techniques and includes an extensive empirical evaluation of eleven methods across seven problems. The survey also offers insights into recent advancements and future research directions in DFL. Code and benchmark: https://github.com/PredOpt/predopt-benchmarks

Scholars studying organizations often work with multiple datasets lacking shared unique identifiers or covariates. In such situations, researchers may turn to approximate string matching methods to combine datasets. String matching, although useful, faces fundamental challenges. Even when two strings appear similar to humans, fuzzy matching often does not work because it fails to adapt to the informativeness of the character combinations presented. Worse, many entities have multiple names that are dissimilar (e.g., "Fannie Mae" and "Federal National Mortgage Association"), a case where string matching has little hope of succeeding. This paper introduces data from a prominent employment-related networking site (LinkedIn) as a tool to address these problems. We propose interconnected approaches to leveraging the massive amount of information from LinkedIn regarding organizational name-to-name links. The first approach builds a machine learning model for predicting matches from character strings, treating the trillions of user-contributed organizational name pairs as a training corpus: this approach constructs a string matching metric that explicitly maximizes match probabilities. A second approach identifies relationships between organization names using network representations of the LinkedIn data. A third approach combines the first and second. We document substantial improvements over fuzzy matching in applications, making all methods accessible in open-source software ("LinkOrgs").

Interpretability in machine learning (ML) is crucial for high stakes decisions and troubleshooting. In this work, we provide fundamental principles for interpretable ML, and dispel common misunderstandings that dilute the importance of this crucial topic. We also identify 10 technical challenge areas in interpretable machine learning and provide history and background on each problem. Some of these problems are classically important, and some are recent problems that have arisen in the last few years. These problems are: (1) Optimizing sparse logical models such as decision trees; (2) Optimization of scoring systems; (3) Placing constraints into generalized additive models to encourage sparsity and better interpretability; (4) Modern case-based reasoning, including neural networks and matching for causal inference; (5) Complete supervised disentanglement of neural networks; (6) Complete or even partial unsupervised disentanglement of neural networks; (7) Dimensionality reduction for data visualization; (8) Machine learning models that can incorporate physics and other generative or causal constraints; (9) Characterization of the "Rashomon set" of good models; and (10) Interpretable reinforcement learning. This survey is suitable as a starting point for statisticians and computer scientists interested in working in interpretable machine learning.

For supervised learning with tabular data, decision tree ensembles produced via boosting techniques generally dominate real-world applications involving iid training/test sets. However for graph data where the iid assumption is violated due to structured relations between samples, it remains unclear how to best incorporate this structure within existing boosting pipelines. To this end, we propose a generalized framework for iterating boosting with graph propagation steps that share node/sample information across edges connecting related samples. Unlike previous efforts to integrate graph-based models with boosting, our approach is anchored in a principled meta loss function such that provable convergence can be guaranteed under relatively mild assumptions. Across a variety of non-iid graph datasets with tabular node features, our method achieves comparable or superior performance than both tabular and graph neural network models, as well as existing hybrid strategies that combine the two. Beyond producing better predictive performance than recently proposed graph models, our proposed techniques are easy to implement, computationally more efficient, and enjoy stronger theoretical guarantees (which make our results more reproducible).

Tree boosting is a highly effective and widely used machine learning method. In this paper, we describe a scalable end-to-end tree boosting system called XGBoost, which is used widely by data scientists to achieve state-of-the-art results on many machine learning challenges. We propose a novel sparsity-aware algorithm for sparse data and weighted quantile sketch for approximate tree learning. More importantly, we provide insights on cache access patterns, data compression and sharding to build a scalable tree boosting system. By combining these insights, XGBoost scales beyond billions of examples using far fewer resources than existing systems.

Clustering is an unsupervised learning problem that aims to partition unlabelled data points into groups with similar features. Traditional clustering algorithms provide limited insight into the groups they find as their main focus is accuracy and not the interpretability of the group assignments. This has spurred a recent line of work on explainable machine learning for clustering. In this paper we focus on the cluster description problem where, given a dataset and its partition into clusters, the task is to explain the clusters. We introduce a new approach to explain clusters by constructing polyhedra around each cluster while minimizing either the complexity of the resulting polyhedra or the number of features used in the description. We formulate the cluster description problem as an integer program and present a column generation approach to search over an exponential number of candidate half-spaces that can be used to build the polyhedra. To deal with large datasets, we introduce a novel grouping scheme that first forms smaller groups of data points and then builds the polyhedra around the grouped data, a strategy which out-performs simply sub-sampling data. Compared to state of the art cluster description algorithms, our approach is able to achieve competitive interpretability with improved description accuracy.

We develop a rigorous mathematical analysis of zero-shot learning with attributes. In this setting, the goal is to label novel classes with no training data, only detectors for attributes and a description of how those attributes are correlated with the target classes, called the class-attribute matrix. We develop the first non-trivial lower bound on the worst-case error of the best map from attributes to classes for this setting, even with perfect attribute detectors. The lower bound characterizes the theoretical intrinsic difficulty of the zero-shot problem based on the available information -- the class-attribute matrix -- and the bound is practically computable from it. Our lower bound is tight, as we show that we can always find a randomized map from attributes to classes whose expected error is upper bounded by the value of the lower bound. We show that our analysis can be predictive of how standard zero-shot methods behave in practice, including which classes will likely be confused with others.

Brain stroke remains one of the principal causes of death and disability worldwide, yet most tabular-data prediction models still hover below the 95% accuracy threshold, limiting real-world utility. Addressing this gap, the present work develops and validates a completely data-driven and interpretable machine-learning framework designed to predict strokes using ten routinely gathered demographic, lifestyle, and clinical variables sourced from a public cohort of 4,981 records. We employ a detailed exploratory data analysis (EDA) to understand the dataset's structure and distribution, followed by rigorous data preprocessing, including handling missing values, outlier removal, and class imbalance correction using Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technique (SMOTE). To streamline feature selection, point-biserial correlation and random-forest Gini importance were utilized, and ten varied algorithms-encompassing tree ensembles, boosting, kernel methods, and a multilayer neural network-were optimized using stratified five-fold cross-validation. Their predictions based on probabilities helped us build the proposed model, which included Random Forest, XGBoost, LightGBM, and a support-vector classifier, with logistic regression acting as a meta-learner. The proposed model achieved an accuracy rate of 97.2% and an F1-score of 97.15%, indicating a significant enhancement compared to the leading individual model, LightGBM, which had an accuracy of 91.4%. Our study's findings indicate that rigorous preprocessing, coupled with a diverse hybrid model, can convert low-cost tabular data into a nearly clinical-grade stroke-risk assessment tool.

This study is based on the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) dataset and aims to explore early detection and disease progression in Alzheimer's disease (AD). We employ innovative data preprocessing strategies, including the use of the random forest algorithm to fill missing data and the handling of outliers and invalid data, thereby fully mining and utilizing these limited data resources. Through Spearman correlation coefficient analysis, we identify some features strongly correlated with AD diagnosis. We build and test three machine learning models using these features: random forest, XGBoost, and support vector machine (SVM). Among them, the XGBoost model performs the best in terms of diagnostic performance, achieving an accuracy of 91%. Overall, this study successfully overcomes the challenge of missing data and provides valuable insights into early detection of Alzheimer's disease, demonstrating its unique research value and practical significance.

Grey-box fuzzers such as American Fuzzy Lop (AFL) are popular tools for finding bugs and potential vulnerabilities in programs. While these fuzzers have been able to find vulnerabilities in many widely used programs, they are not efficient; of the millions of inputs executed by AFL in a typical fuzzing run, only a handful discover unseen behavior or trigger a crash. The remaining inputs are redundant, exhibiting behavior that has already been observed. Here, we present an approach to increase the efficiency of fuzzers like AFL by applying machine learning to directly model how programs behave. We learn a forward prediction model that maps program inputs to execution traces, training on the thousands of inputs collected during standard fuzzing. This learned model guides exploration by focusing on fuzzing inputs on which our model is the most uncertain (measured via the entropy of the predicted execution trace distribution). By focusing on executing inputs our learned model is unsure about, and ignoring any input whose behavior our model is certain about, we show that we can significantly limit wasteful execution. Through testing our approach on a set of binaries released as part of the DARPA Cyber Grand Challenge, we show that our approach is able to find a set of inputs that result in more code coverage and discovered crashes than baseline fuzzers with significantly fewer executions.

Experts advising decision-makers are likely to display expertise which varies as a function of the problem instance. In practice, this may lead to sub-optimal or discriminatory decisions against minority cases. In this work we model such changes in depth and breadth of knowledge as a partitioning of the problem space into regions of differing expertise. We provide here new algorithms that explicitly consider and adapt to the relationship between problem instances and experts' knowledge. We first propose and highlight the drawbacks of a naive approach based on nearest neighbor queries. To address these drawbacks we then introduce a novel algorithm - expertise trees - that constructs decision trees enabling the learner to select appropriate models. We provide theoretical insights and empirically validate the improved performance of our novel approach on a range of problems for which existing methods proved to be inadequate.

Fairness, especially group fairness, is an important consideration in the context of machine learning systems. The most commonly adopted group fairness-enhancing techniques are in-processing methods that rely on a mixture of a fairness objective (e.g., demographic parity) and a task-specific objective (e.g., cross-entropy) during the training process. However, when data arrives in an online fashion -- one instance at a time -- optimizing such fairness objectives poses several challenges. In particular, group fairness objectives are defined using expectations of predictions across different demographic groups. In the online setting, where the algorithm has access to a single instance at a time, estimating the group fairness objective requires additional storage and significantly more computation (e.g., forward/backward passes) than the task-specific objective at every time step. In this paper, we propose Aranyani, an ensemble of oblique decision trees, to make fair decisions in online settings. The hierarchical tree structure of Aranyani enables parameter isolation and allows us to efficiently compute the fairness gradients using aggregate statistics of previous decisions, eliminating the need for additional storage and forward/backward passes. We also present an efficient framework to train Aranyani and theoretically analyze several of its properties. We conduct empirical evaluations on 5 publicly available benchmarks (including vision and language datasets) to show that Aranyani achieves a better accuracy-fairness trade-off compared to baseline approaches.

Clustering is a NP-hard problem. Thus, no optimal algorithm exists, heuristics are applied to cluster the data. Heuristics can be very resource-intensive, if not applied properly. For substantially large data sets computational efficiencies can be achieved by reducing the input space if a minimal loss of information can be achieved. Clustering algorithms, in general, face two common problems: 1) these converge to different settings with different initial conditions and; 2) the number of clusters has to be arbitrarily decided beforehand. This problem has become critical in the realm of big data. Recently, clustering algorithms have emerged which can speedup computations using parallel processing over the grid but face the aforementioned problems. Goals: Our goals are to find methods to cluster data which: 1) guarantee convergence to the same settings irrespective of the initial conditions; 2) eliminate the need to establish the number of clusters beforehand, and 3) can be applied to cluster large datasets. Methods: We introduce a method that combines probabilistic and combinatorial clustering methods to produce repeatable and compact clusters that are not sensitive to initial conditions. This method harnesses the power of k-means (a combinatorial clustering method) to cluster/partition very large dimensional datasets and uses the Gaussian Mixture Model (a probabilistic clustering method) to validate the k-means partitions. Results: We show that this method produces very compact clusters that are not sensitive to initial conditions. This method can be used to identify the most 'separable' set in a dataset which increases the 'clusterability' of a dataset. This method also eliminates the need to specify the number of clusters in advance.

As machine learning technology gets applied to actual products and solutions, new challenges have emerged. Models unexpectedly fail to generalize to small changes in the distribution, tend to be confident on novel data they have never seen, or cannot communicate the rationale behind their decisions effectively with the end users. Collectively, we face a trustworthiness issue with the current machine learning technology. This textbook on Trustworthy Machine Learning (TML) covers a theoretical and technical background of four key topics in TML: Out-of-Distribution Generalization, Explainability, Uncertainty Quantification, and Evaluation of Trustworthiness. We discuss important classical and contemporary research papers of the aforementioned fields and uncover and connect their underlying intuitions. The book evolved from the homonymous course at the University of T\"ubingen, first offered in the Winter Semester of 2022/23. It is meant to be a stand-alone product accompanied by code snippets and various pointers to further sources on topics of TML. The dedicated website of the book is https://trustworthyml.io/.

This paper discusses the properties the spaces of fuzzy sets in a metric space equipped with the endograph metric and the sendograph metric, respectively. We first give some relations among the endograph metric, the sendograph metric and the Gamma-convergence, and then investigate the level characterizations of the endograph metric and the Gamma-convergence. By using the above results, we give some relations among the endograph metric, the sendograph metric, the supremum metric and the d_p^* metric, pgeq 1. On the basis of the above results, we present the characterizations of total boundedness, relative compactness and compactness in the space of fuzzy sets whose alpha-cuts are compact when alpha>0 equipped with the endograph metric, and in the space of compact support fuzzy sets equipped with the sendograph metric, respectively. Furthermore, we give completions of these metric spaces, respectively.

The higher-order correlation clustering problem is an expressive model, and recently, local search heuristics have been proposed for several applications. Certifying optimality, however, is NP-hard and practically hampered already by the complexity of the problem statement. Here, we focus on establishing partial optimality conditions for the special case of complete graphs and cubic objective functions. In addition, we define and implement algorithms for testing these conditions and examine their effect numerically, on two datasets.

Federated Learning (FL) is a widespread and well-adopted paradigm of decentralised learning that allows training one model from multiple sources without the need to transfer data between participating clients directly. Since its inception in 2015, it has been divided into numerous subfields that deal with application-specific issues, such as data heterogeneity or resource allocation. One such sub-field, Clustered Federated Learning (CFL), deals with the problem of clustering the population of clients into separate cohorts to deliver personalised models. Although a few remarkable works have been published in this domain, the problem remains largely unexplored, as its basic assumptions and settings differ slightly from those of standard FL. In this work, we present One-Shot Clustered Federated Learning (OCFL), a clustering-agnostic algorithm that can automatically detect the earliest suitable moment for clustering. Our algorithm is based on computing the cosine distance between the gradients of the clients and a temperature measure that detects when the federated model starts to converge. We empirically evaluate our methodology by testing various one-shot clustering algorithms for over forty different tasks on five benchmark datasets. Our experiments showcase the good performance of our approach when used to perform CFL in an automated manner without the need to adjust hyperparameters. We also revisit the practical feasibility of CFL algorithms based on the gradients of the clients, providing firm evidence of the high efficiency of density-based clustering methods when used to differentiate between the loss surfaces of neural networks trained on different distributions. Moreover, by inspecting the feasibility of local explanations generated with the help of GradCAM, we can provide more insights into the relationship between personalisation and the explainability of local predictions.

Over the last few decades, deforestation and climate change have caused increasing number of forest fires. In Southeast Asia, Indonesia has been the most affected country by tropical peatland forest fires. These fires have a significant impact on the climate resulting in extensive health, social and economic issues. Existing forest fire prediction systems, such as the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System, are based on handcrafted features and require installation and maintenance of expensive instruments on the ground, which can be a challenge for developing countries such as Indonesia. We propose a novel, cost-effective, machine-learning based approach that uses remote sensing data to predict forest fires in Indonesia. Our prediction model achieves more than 0.81 area under the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve, performing significantly better than the baseline approach which never exceeds 0.70 area under ROC curve on the same tasks. Our model's performance remained above 0.81 area under ROC curve even when evaluated with reduced data. The results support our claim that machine-learning based approaches can lead to reliable and cost-effective forest fire prediction systems.

A novel gradient boosting framework is proposed where shallow neural networks are employed as ``weak learners''. General loss functions are considered under this unified framework with specific examples presented for classification, regression, and learning to rank. A fully corrective step is incorporated to remedy the pitfall of greedy function approximation of classic gradient boosting decision tree. The proposed model rendered outperforming results against state-of-the-art boosting methods in all three tasks on multiple datasets. An ablation study is performed to shed light on the effect of each model components and model hyperparameters.

Inductive Reasoning (IR), the ability to summarize rules from examples and apply on new ones, has long been viewed as a primal ability for general intelligence and widely studied by cognitive science and AI researchers. Many benchmarks have been proposed to measure such ability for Large Language Models (LLMs); however, they focus on few-shot (usually <10) setting and lack evaluation for aggregating many pieces of information from long contexts. On the other hand, the ever-growing context length of LLMs have brought forth the novel paradigm of many-shot In-Context Learning (ICL), which addresses new tasks with hundreds to thousands of examples without expensive and inefficient fine-tuning. However, many-shot evaluations are mostly focused on classification (a very limited aspect of IR), and popular long-context LLM tasks such as Needle-In-A-Haystack (NIAH) seldom require complicated intelligence for integrating many pieces of information. To fix the issues from both worlds, we propose MIR-Bench, the first many-shot in-context inductive reasoning benchmark that asks LLM to induce output via input-output examples from underlying functions with diverse data format. Based on MIR-Bench, we study many novel problems for inductive reasoning and many-shot ICL, including robustness against erroneous shots and the effect of Chain-of-Thought (CoT), and acquired insightful findings.

In the past couple of years, various approaches to representing and quantifying different types of predictive uncertainty in machine learning, notably in the setting of classification, have been proposed on the basis of second-order probability distributions, i.e., predictions in the form of distributions on probability distributions. A completely conclusive solution has not yet been found, however, as shown by recent criticisms of commonly used uncertainty measures associated with second-order distributions, identifying undesirable theoretical properties of these measures. In light of these criticisms, we propose a set of formal criteria that meaningful uncertainty measures for predictive uncertainty based on second-order distributions should obey. Moreover, we provide a general framework for developing uncertainty measures to account for these criteria, and offer an instantiation based on the Wasserstein distance, for which we prove that all criteria are satisfied.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated significant potential in performing multiple tasks in multimedia applications, ranging from content generation to interactive entertainment, and artistic creation. However, the diversity of downstream tasks in multitask scenarios presents substantial adaptation challenges for LLMs. While traditional methods often succumb to knowledge confusion on their monolithic dense models, Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) has been emerged as a promising solution with its sparse architecture for effective task decoupling. Inspired by the principles of human cognitive neuroscience, we design a novel framework Intuition-MoR1E that leverages the inherent semantic clustering of instances to mimic the human brain to deal with multitask, offering implicit guidance to router for optimized feature allocation. Moreover, we introduce cutting-edge Rank-1 Experts formulation designed to manage a spectrum of intuitions, demonstrating enhanced parameter efficiency and effectiveness in multitask LLM finetuning. Extensive experiments demonstrate that Intuition-MoR1E achieves superior efficiency and 2.15\% overall accuracy improvement across 14 public datasets against other state-of-the-art baselines.

Class-wise characteristics of training examples affect the performance of deep classifiers. A well-studied example is when the number of training examples of classes follows a long-tailed distribution, a situation that is likely to yield sub-optimal performance for under-represented classes. This class imbalance problem is conventionally addressed by approaches relying on the class-wise cardinality of training examples, such as data resampling. In this paper, we demonstrate that considering solely the cardinality of classes does not cover all issues causing class imbalance. To measure class imbalance, we propose "Class Uncertainty" as the average predictive uncertainty of the training examples, and we show that this novel measure captures the differences across classes better than cardinality. We also curate SVCI-20 as a novel dataset in which the classes have equal number of training examples but they differ in terms of their hardness; thereby causing a type of class imbalance which cannot be addressed by the approaches relying on cardinality. We incorporate our "Class Uncertainty" measure into a diverse set of ten class imbalance mitigation methods to demonstrate its effectiveness on long-tailed datasets as well as on our SVCI-20. Code and datasets will be made available.

Active learning (AL) in open set scenarios presents a novel challenge of identifying the most valuable examples in an unlabeled data pool that comprises data from both known and unknown classes. Traditional methods prioritize selecting informative examples with low confidence, with the risk of mistakenly selecting unknown-class examples with similarly low confidence. Recent methods favor the most probable known-class examples, with the risk of picking simple already mastered examples. In this paper, we attempt to query examples that are both likely from known classes and highly informative, and propose a Bidirectional Uncertainty-based Active Learning (BUAL) framework. Specifically, we achieve this by first pushing the unknown class examples toward regions with high-confidence predictions, i.e., the proposed Random Label Negative Learning method. Then, we propose a Bidirectional Uncertainty sampling strategy by jointly estimating uncertainty posed by both positive and negative learning to perform consistent and stable sampling. BUAL successfully extends existing uncertainty-based AL methods to complex open-set scenarios. Extensive experiments on multiple datasets with varying openness demonstrate that BUAL achieves state-of-the-art performance. The code is available at https://github.com/chenchenzong/BUAL.

Error detection (ED), which aims to identify incorrect or inconsistent cell values in tabular data, is important for ensuring data quality. Recent state-of-the-art ED methods leverage the pre-trained knowledge and semantic capability embedded in large language models (LLMs) to directly label whether a cell is erroneous. However, this LLM-as-a-labeler pipeline (1) relies on the black box, implicit decision process, thus failing to provide explainability for the detection results, and (2) is highly sensitive to prompts, yielding inconsistent outputs due to inherent model stochasticity, therefore lacking robustness. To address these limitations, we propose an LLM-as-an-inducer framework that adopts LLM to induce the decision tree for ED (termed TreeED) and further ensembles multiple such trees for consensus detection (termed ForestED), thereby improving explainability and robustness. Specifically, based on prompts derived from data context, decision tree specifications and output requirements, TreeED queries the LLM to induce the decision tree skeleton, whose root-to-leaf decision paths specify the stepwise procedure for evaluating a given sample. Each tree contains three types of nodes: (1) rule nodes that perform simple validation checks (e.g., format or range), (2) Graph Neural Network (GNN) nodes that capture complex patterns (e.g., functional dependencies), and (3) leaf nodes that output the final decision types (error or clean). Furthermore, ForestED employs uncertainty-based sampling to obtain multiple row subsets, constructing a decision tree for each subset using TreeED. It then leverages an Expectation-Maximization-based algorithm that jointly estimates tree reliability and optimizes the consensus ED prediction. Extensive xperiments demonstrate that our methods are accurate, explainable and robust, achieving an average F1-score improvement of 16.1% over the best baseline.

In this paper, we present a general scheme for building reproducible and extensible datasets for website phishing detection. The aim is to (1) enable comparison of systems using different features, (2) overtake the short-lived nature of phishing websites, and (3) keep track of the evolution of phishing tactics. For experimenting the proposed scheme, we start by adopting a refined classification of website phishing features and we systematically select a total of 87 commonly recognized ones, we classify them, and we made them subjects for relevance and runtime analysis. We use the collected set of features to build a dataset in light of the proposed scheme. Thereafter, we use a conceptual replication approach to check the genericity of former findings for the built dataset. Specifically, we evaluate the performance of classifiers on individual classes and on combinations of classes, we investigate different combinations of models, and we explore the effects of filter and wrapper methods on the selection of discriminative features. The results show that Random Forest is the most predictive classifier. Features gathered from external services are found the most discriminative where features extracted from web page contents are found less distinguishing. Besides external service based features, some web page content features are found time consuming and not suitable for runtime detection. The use of hybrid features provided the best accuracy score of 96.61%. By investigating different feature selection methods, filter-based ranking together with incremental removal of less important features improved the performance up to 96.83% better than wrapper methods.

Purpose: Hard-to-interpret Black-box Machine Learning (ML) were often used for early Alzheimer's Disease (AD) detection. Methods: To interpret eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Random Forest (RF), and Support Vector Machine (SVM) black-box models a workflow based on Shapley values was developed. All models were trained on the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) dataset and evaluated for an independent ADNI test set, as well as the external Australian Imaging and Lifestyle flagship study of Ageing (AIBL), and Open Access Series of Imaging Studies (OASIS) datasets. Shapley values were compared to intuitively interpretable Decision Trees (DTs), and Logistic Regression (LR), as well as natural and permutation feature importances. To avoid the reduction of the explanation validity caused by correlated features, forward selection and aspect consolidation were implemented. Results: Some black-box models outperformed DTs and LR. The forward-selected features correspond to brain areas previously associated with AD. Shapley values identified biologically plausible associations with moderate to strong correlations with feature importances. The most important RF features to predict AD conversion were the volume of the amygdalae, and a cognitive test score. Good cognitive test performances and large brain volumes decreased the AD risk. The models trained using cognitive test scores significantly outperformed brain volumetric models (p<0.05). Cognitive Normal (CN) vs. AD models were successfully transferred to external datasets. Conclusion: In comparison to previous work, improved performances for ADNI and AIBL were achieved for CN vs. Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) classification using brain volumes. The Shapley values and the feature importances showed moderate to strong correlations.

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is essential for creating trustworthy machine learning models. Recent years have seen a steep rise in UQ methods that can flag suspicious examples, however, it is often unclear what exactly these methods identify. In this work, we propose a framework for categorizing uncertain examples flagged by UQ methods in classification tasks. We introduce the confusion density matrix -- a kernel-based approximation of the misclassification density -- and use this to categorize suspicious examples identified by a given uncertainty method into three classes: out-of-distribution (OOD) examples, boundary (Bnd) examples, and examples in regions of high in-distribution misclassification (IDM). Through extensive experiments, we show that our framework provides a new and distinct perspective for assessing differences between uncertainty quantification methods, thereby forming a valuable assessment benchmark.

AI and data driven solutions have been applied to different fields and achieved outperforming and promising results. In this research work we apply k-Nearest Neighbours, eXtreme Gradient Boosting and Random Forest classifiers for detecting the trend problem of three cryptocurrency markets. We use these classifiers to design a strategy to trade in those markets. Our input data in the experiments include price data with and without technical indicators in separate tests to see the effect of using them. Our test results on unseen data are very promising and show a great potential for this approach in helping investors with an expert system to exploit the market and gain profit. Our highest profit factor for an unseen 66 day span is 1.60. We also discuss limitations of these approaches and their potential impact on Efficient Market Hypothesis.

The identification of heterogeneous treatment effects (HTE) across subgroups is of significant interest in clinical trial analysis. Several state-of-the-art HTE estimation methods, including causal forests, apply recursive partitioning for non-parametric identification of relevant covariates and interactions. However, the partitioning criterion is typically based on differences in absolute risk. This can dilute statistical power by masking variation in the relative risk, which is often a more appropriate quantity of clinical interest. In this work, we propose and implement a methodology for modifying causal forests to target relative risk, using a novel node-splitting procedure based on exhaustive generalized linear model comparison. We present results from simulated data that suggest relative risk causal forests can capture otherwise undetected sources of heterogeneity. We implement our method on real-world trial data to explore HTEs for liraglutide in patients with type 2 diabetes.

Predicting trends in stock market prices has been an area of interest for researchers for many years due to its complex and dynamic nature. Intrinsic volatility in stock market across the globe makes the task of prediction challenging. Forecasting and diffusion modeling, although effective can't be the panacea to the diverse range of problems encountered in prediction, short-term or otherwise. Market risk, strongly correlated with forecasting errors, needs to be minimized to ensure minimal risk in investment. The authors propose to minimize forecasting error by treating the forecasting problem as a classification problem, a popular suite of algorithms in Machine learning. In this paper, we propose a novel way to minimize the risk of investment in stock market by predicting the returns of a stock using a class of powerful machine learning algorithms known as ensemble learning. Some of the technical indicators such as Relative Strength Index (RSI), stochastic oscillator etc are used as inputs to train our model. The learning model used is an ensemble of multiple decision trees. The algorithm is shown to outperform existing algo- rithms found in the literature. Out of Bag (OOB) error estimates have been found to be encouraging. Key Words: Random Forest Classifier, stock price forecasting, Exponential smoothing, feature extraction, OOB error and convergence.

In this article, we introduce a neuro-symbolic approach that combines a low-level perception task performed by a neural network with a high-level reasoning task performed by a possibilistic rule-based system. The goal is to be able to derive for each input instance the degree of possibility that it belongs to a target (meta-)concept. This (meta-)concept is connected to intermediate concepts by a possibilistic rule-based system. The probability of each intermediate concept for the input instance is inferred using a neural network. The connection between the low-level perception task and the high-level reasoning task lies in the transformation of neural network outputs modeled by probability distributions (through softmax activation) into possibility distributions. The use of intermediate concepts is valuable for the explanation purpose: using the rule-based system, the classification of an input instance as an element of the (meta-)concept can be justified by the fact that intermediate concepts have been recognized. From the technical side, our contribution consists of the design of efficient methods for defining the matrix relation and the equation system associated with a possibilistic rule-based system. The corresponding matrix and equation are key data structures used to perform inferences from a possibilistic rule-based system and to learn the values of the rule parameters in such a system according to a training data sample. Furthermore, leveraging recent results on the handling of inconsistent systems of fuzzy relational equations, an approach for learning rule parameters according to multiple training data samples is presented. Experiments carried out on the MNIST addition problems and the MNIST Sudoku puzzles problems highlight the effectiveness of our approach compared with state-of-the-art neuro-symbolic ones.

This research paper investigates the effectiveness of simple linear models versus complex machine learning techniques in breast cancer diagnosis, emphasizing the importance of interpretability and computational efficiency in the medical domain. We focus on Logistic Regression (LR), Decision Trees (DT), and Support Vector Machines (SVM) and optimize their performance using the UCI Machine Learning Repository dataset. Our findings demonstrate that the simpler linear model, LR, outperforms the more complex DT and SVM techniques, with a test score mean of 97.28%, a standard deviation of 1.62%, and a computation time of 35.56 ms. In comparison, DT achieved a test score mean of 93.73%, and SVM had a test score mean of 96.44%. The superior performance of LR can be attributed to its simplicity and interpretability, which provide a clear understanding of the relationship between input features and the outcome. This is particularly valuable in the medical domain, where interpretability is crucial for decision-making. Moreover, the computational efficiency of LR offers advantages in terms of scalability and real-world applicability. The results of this study highlight the power of simplicity in the context of breast cancer diagnosis and suggest that simpler linear models like LR can be more effective, interpretable, and computationally efficient than their complex counterparts, making them a more suitable choice for medical applications.

Much research in machine learning involves finding appropriate inductive biases (e.g. convolutional neural networks, momentum-based optimizers, transformers) to promote generalization on tasks. However, quantification of the amount of inductive bias associated with these architectures and hyperparameters has been limited. We propose a novel method for efficiently computing the inductive bias required for generalization on a task with a fixed training data budget; formally, this corresponds to the amount of information required to specify well-generalizing models within a specific hypothesis space of models. Our approach involves modeling the loss distribution of random hypotheses drawn from a hypothesis space to estimate the required inductive bias for a task relative to these hypotheses. Unlike prior work, our method provides a direct estimate of inductive bias without using bounds and is applicable to diverse hypothesis spaces. Moreover, we derive approximation error bounds for our estimation approach in terms of the number of sampled hypotheses. Consistent with prior results, our empirical results demonstrate that higher dimensional tasks require greater inductive bias. We show that relative to other expressive model classes, neural networks as a model class encode large amounts of inductive bias. Furthermore, our measure quantifies the relative difference in inductive bias between different neural network architectures. Our proposed inductive bias metric provides an information-theoretic interpretation of the benefits of specific model architectures for certain tasks and provides a quantitative guide to developing tasks requiring greater inductive bias, thereby encouraging the development of more powerful inductive biases.

Universal Information Extraction (UIE) has been introduced as a unified framework for various Information Extraction (IE) tasks and has achieved widespread success. Despite this, UIE models have limitations. For example, they rely heavily on span boundaries in the data during training, which does not reflect the reality of span annotation challenges. Slight adjustments to positions can also meet requirements. Additionally, UIE models lack attention to the limited span length feature in IE. To address these deficiencies, we propose the Fuzzy Span Universal Information Extraction (FSUIE) framework. Specifically, our contribution consists of two concepts: fuzzy span loss and fuzzy span attention. Our experimental results on a series of main IE tasks show significant improvement compared to the baseline, especially in terms of fast convergence and strong performance with small amounts of data and training epochs. These results demonstrate the effectiveness and generalization of FSUIE in different tasks, settings, and scenarios.

Self-training is a well-known approach for semi-supervised learning. It consists of iteratively assigning pseudo-labels to unlabeled data for which the model is confident and treating them as labeled examples. For neural networks, softmax prediction probabilities are often used as a confidence measure, although they are known to be overconfident, even for wrong predictions. This phenomenon is particularly intensified in the presence of sample selection bias, i.e., when data labeling is subject to some constraint. To address this issue, we propose a novel confidence measure, called T-similarity, built upon the prediction diversity of an ensemble of linear classifiers. We provide the theoretical analysis of our approach by studying stationary points and describing the relationship between the diversity of the individual members and their performance. We empirically demonstrate the benefit of our confidence measure for three different pseudo-labeling policies on classification datasets of various data modalities. The code is available at https://github.com/ambroiseodt/tsim.

Stock price prediction is a rich research topic that has attracted interest from various areas of science. The recent success of machine learning in speech and image recognition has prompted researchers to apply these methods to asset price prediction. The majority of literature has been devoted to predicting either the actual asset price or the direction of price movement. In this paper, we study a hitherto little explored question of predicting significant changes in stock price based on previous changes using machine learning algorithms. We are particularly interested in the performance of neural network classifiers in the given context. To this end, we construct and test three neural network models including multi-layer perceptron, convolutional net, and long short term memory net. As benchmark models we use random forest and relative strength index methods. The models are tested using 10-year daily stock price data of four major US public companies. Test results show that predicting significant changes in stock price can be accomplished with a high degree of accuracy. In particular, we obtain substantially better results than similar studies that forecast the direction of price change.

Despite the rise to dominance of deep learning in unstructured data domains, tree-based methods such as Random Forests (RF) and Gradient Boosted Decision Trees (GBDT) are still the workhorses for handling discriminative tasks on tabular data. We explore generative extensions of these popular algorithms with a focus on explicitly modeling the data density (up to a normalization constant), thus enabling other applications besides sampling. As our main contribution we propose an energy-based generative boosting algorithm that is analogous to the second order boosting implemented in popular packages like XGBoost. We show that, despite producing a generative model capable of handling inference tasks over any input variable, our proposed algorithm can achieve similar discriminative performance to GBDT on a number of real world tabular datasets, outperforming alternative generative approaches. At the same time, we show that it is also competitive with neural network based models for sampling.

Interpretability is essential for machine learning models to be trusted and deployed in critical domains. However, existing methods for interpreting text models are often complex, lack mathematical foundations, and their performance is not guaranteed. In this paper, we propose FRED (Faithful and Robust Explainer for textual Documents), a novel method for interpreting predictions over text. FRED offers three key insights to explain a model prediction: (1) it identifies the minimal set of words in a document whose removal has the strongest influence on the prediction, (2) it assigns an importance score to each token, reflecting its influence on the model's output, and (3) it provides counterfactual explanations by generating examples similar to the original document, but leading to a different prediction. We establish the reliability of FRED through formal definitions and theoretical analyses on interpretable classifiers. Additionally, our empirical evaluation against state-of-the-art methods demonstrates the effectiveness of FRED in providing insights into text models.

Uncertainty estimation is a key factor that makes deep learning reliable in practical applications. Recently proposed evidential neural networks explicitly account for different uncertainties by treating the network's outputs as evidence to parameterize the Dirichlet distribution, and achieve impressive performance in uncertainty estimation. However, for high data uncertainty samples but annotated with the one-hot label, the evidence-learning process for those mislabeled classes is over-penalized and remains hindered. To address this problem, we propose a novel method, Fisher Information-based Evidential Deep Learning (I-EDL). In particular, we introduce Fisher Information Matrix (FIM) to measure the informativeness of evidence carried by each sample, according to which we can dynamically reweight the objective loss terms to make the network more focused on the representation learning of uncertain classes. The generalization ability of our network is further improved by optimizing the PAC-Bayesian bound. As demonstrated empirically, our proposed method consistently outperforms traditional EDL-related algorithms in multiple uncertainty estimation tasks, especially in the more challenging few-shot classification settings.

This paper proposes a simple but effective graph-based agglomerative algorithm, for clustering high-dimensional data. We explore the different roles of two fundamental concepts in graph theory, indegree and outdegree, in the context of clustering. The average indegree reflects the density near a sample, and the average outdegree characterizes the local geometry around a sample. Based on such insights, we define the affinity measure of clusters via the product of average indegree and average outdegree. The product-based affinity makes our algorithm robust to noise. The algorithm has three main advantages: good performance, easy implementation, and high computational efficiency. We test the algorithm on two fundamental computer vision problems: image clustering and object matching. Extensive experiments demonstrate that it outperforms the state-of-the-arts in both applications.

We study the data selection problem, whose aim is to select a small representative subset of data that can be used to efficiently train a machine learning model. We present a new data selection approach based on k-means clustering and sensitivity sampling. Assuming access to an embedding representation of the data with respect to which the model loss is H\"older continuous, our approach provably allows selecting a set of ``typical'' k + 1/varepsilon^2 elements whose average loss corresponds to the average loss of the whole dataset, up to a multiplicative (1pmvarepsilon) factor and an additive varepsilon lambda Phi_k, where Phi_k represents the k-means cost for the input embeddings and lambda is the H\"older constant. We furthermore demonstrate the performance and scalability of our approach on fine-tuning foundation models and show that it outperforms state-of-the-art methods. We also show how it can be applied on linear regression, leading to a new sampling strategy that surprisingly matches the performances of leverage score sampling, while being conceptually simpler and more scalable.

This paper proposes a novel framework to predict traffic flows' bandwidth ahead of time. Modern network management systems share a common issue: the network situation evolves between the moment the decision is made and the moment when actions (countermeasures) are applied. This framework converts packets from real-life traffic into flows containing relevant features. Machine learning models, including Decision Tree, Random Forest, XGBoost, and Deep Neural Network, are trained on these data to predict the bandwidth at the next time instance for every flow. Predictions can be fed to the management system instead of current flows bandwidth in order to take decisions on a more accurate network state. Experiments were performed on 981,774 flows and 15 different time windows (from 0.03s to 4s). They show that the Random Forest is the best performing and most reliable model, with a predictive performance consistently better than relying on the current bandwidth (+19.73% in mean absolute error and +18.00% in root mean square error). Experimental results indicate that this framework can help network management systems to take more informed decisions using a predicted network state.

The k-means++ seeding algorithm (Arthur & Vassilvitskii, 2007) is widely used in practice for the k-means clustering problem where the goal is to cluster a dataset X subset R ^d into k clusters. The popularity of this algorithm is due to its simplicity and provable guarantee of being O(log k) competitive with the optimal solution in expectation. However, its running time is O(|X|kd), making it expensive for large datasets. In this work, we present a simple and effective rejection sampling based approach for speeding up k-means++. Our first method runs in time O(nnz (X) + beta k^2d) while still being O(log k ) competitive in expectation. Here, beta is a parameter which is the ratio of the variance of the dataset to the optimal k-means cost in expectation and O hides logarithmic factors in k and |X|. Our second method presents a new trade-off between computational cost and solution quality. It incurs an additional scale-invariant factor of k^{-Omega( m/beta)} Var (X) in addition to the O(log k) guarantee of k-means++ improving upon a result of (Bachem et al, 2016a) who get an additional factor of m^{-1}Var(X) while still running in time O(nnz(X) + mk^2d). We perform extensive empirical evaluations to validate our theoretical results and to show the effectiveness of our approach on real datasets.

Contrastive learning is a highly successful technique for learning representations of data from labeled tuples, specifying the distance relations within the tuple. We study the sample complexity of contrastive learning, i.e. the minimum number of labeled tuples sufficient for getting high generalization accuracy. We give tight bounds on the sample complexity in a variety of settings, focusing on arbitrary distance functions, both general ell_p-distances, and tree metrics. Our main result is an (almost) optimal bound on the sample complexity of learning ell_p-distances for integer p. For any p ge 1 we show that tilde Theta(min(nd,n^2)) labeled tuples are necessary and sufficient for learning d-dimensional representations of n-point datasets. Our results hold for an arbitrary distribution of the input samples and are based on giving the corresponding bounds on the Vapnik-Chervonenkis/Natarajan dimension of the associated problems. We further show that the theoretical bounds on sample complexity obtained via VC/Natarajan dimension can have strong predictive power for experimental results, in contrast with the folklore belief about a substantial gap between the statistical learning theory and the practice of deep learning.

Misclassification detection is an important problem in machine learning, as it allows for the identification of instances where the model's predictions are unreliable. However, conventional uncertainty measures such as Shannon entropy do not provide an effective way to infer the real uncertainty associated with the model's predictions. In this paper, we introduce a novel data-driven measure of uncertainty relative to an observer for misclassification detection. By learning patterns in the distribution of soft-predictions, our uncertainty measure can identify misclassified samples based on the predicted class probabilities. Interestingly, according to the proposed measure, soft-predictions corresponding to misclassified instances can carry a large amount of uncertainty, even though they may have low Shannon entropy. We demonstrate empirical improvements over multiple image classification tasks, outperforming state-of-the-art misclassification detection methods.

The design of modern recommender systems relies on understanding which parts of the feature space are relevant for solving a given recommendation task. However, real-world data sets in this domain are often characterized by their large size, sparsity, and noise, making it challenging to identify meaningful signals. Feature ranking represents an efficient branch of algorithms that can help address these challenges by identifying the most informative features and facilitating the automated search for more compact and better-performing models (AutoML). We introduce OutRank, a system for versatile feature ranking and data quality-related anomaly detection. OutRank was built with categorical data in mind, utilizing a variant of mutual information that is normalized with regard to the noise produced by features of the same cardinality. We further extend the similarity measure by incorporating information on feature similarity and combined relevance. The proposed approach's feasibility is demonstrated by speeding up the state-of-the-art AutoML system on a synthetic data set with no performance loss. Furthermore, we considered a real-life click-through-rate prediction data set where it outperformed strong baselines such as random forest-based approaches. The proposed approach enables exploration of up to 300% larger feature spaces compared to AutoML-only approaches, enabling faster search for better models on off-the-shelf hardware.

Most positive and unlabeled data is subject to selection biases. The labeled examples can, for example, be selected from the positive set because they are easier to obtain or more obviously positive. This paper investigates how learning can be ena BHbled in this setting. We propose and theoretically analyze an empirical-risk-based method for incorporating the labeling mechanism. Additionally, we investigate under which assumptions learning is possible when the labeling mechanism is not fully understood and propose a practical method to enable this. Our empirical analysis supports the theoretical results and shows that taking into account the possibility of a selection bias, even when the labeling mechanism is unknown, improves the trained classifiers.

We propose a filtering feature selection framework that considers subsets of features as paths in a graph, where a node is a feature and an edge indicates pairwise (customizable) relations among features, dealing with relevance and redundancy principles. By two different interpretations (exploiting properties of power series of matrices and relying on Markov chains fundamentals) we can evaluate the values of paths (i.e., feature subsets) of arbitrary lengths, eventually go to infinite, from which we dub our framework Infinite Feature Selection (Inf-FS). Going to infinite allows to constrain the computational complexity of the selection process, and to rank the features in an elegant way, that is, considering the value of any path (subset) containing a particular feature. We also propose a simple unsupervised strategy to cut the ranking, so providing the subset of features to keep. In the experiments, we analyze diverse settings with heterogeneous features, for a total of 11 benchmarks, comparing against 18 widely-known comparative approaches. The results show that Inf-FS behaves better in almost any situation, that is, when the number of features to keep are fixed a priori, or when the decision of the subset cardinality is part of the process.

Random pruning is arguably the most naive way to attain sparsity in neural networks, but has been deemed uncompetitive by either post-training pruning or sparse training. In this paper, we focus on sparse training and highlight a perhaps counter-intuitive finding, that random pruning at initialization can be quite powerful for the sparse training of modern neural networks. Without any delicate pruning criteria or carefully pursued sparsity structures, we empirically demonstrate that sparsely training a randomly pruned network from scratch can match the performance of its dense equivalent. There are two key factors that contribute to this revival: (i) the network sizes matter: as the original dense networks grow wider and deeper, the performance of training a randomly pruned sparse network will quickly grow to matching that of its dense equivalent, even at high sparsity ratios; (ii) appropriate layer-wise sparsity ratios can be pre-chosen for sparse training, which shows to be another important performance booster. Simple as it looks, a randomly pruned subnetwork of Wide ResNet-50 can be sparsely trained to outperforming a dense Wide ResNet-50, on ImageNet. We also observed such randomly pruned networks outperform dense counterparts in other favorable aspects, such as out-of-distribution detection, uncertainty estimation, and adversarial robustness. Overall, our results strongly suggest there is larger-than-expected room for sparse training at scale, and the benefits of sparsity might be more universal beyond carefully designed pruning. Our source code can be found at https://github.com/VITA-Group/Random_Pruning.

The consensus that GCN, GraphSAGE, GAT, and EvolveGCN outperform feature-only baselines on the Elliptic Bitcoin Dataset is widely cited but has not been rigorously stress-tested under a leakage-free evaluation protocol. We perform a seed-matched inductive-versus-transductive comparison and find that this consensus does not hold. Under a strictly inductive protocol, Random Forest on raw features achieves F1 = 0.821 and outperforms all evaluated GNNs, while GraphSAGE reaches F1 = 0.689 +/- 0.017. A paired controlled experiment reveals a 39.5-point F1 gap attributable to training-time exposure to test-period adjacency. Additionally, edge-shuffle ablations show that randomly wired graphs outperform the real transaction graph, indicating that the dataset's topology can be misleading under temporal distribution shift. Hybrid models combining GNN embeddings with raw features provide only marginal gains and remain substantially below feature-only baselines. We release code, checkpoints, and a strict-inductive protocol to enable reproducible, leakage-free evaluation.

The predictive analysis of match outcomes and player momentum in professional tennis has long been a subject of scholarly debate. In this paper, we introduce a novel approach to game prediction by combining a multi-level fuzzy evaluation model with a CV-GRNN model. We first identify critical statistical indicators via Principal Component Analysis and then develop a two-tier fuzzy model based on the Wimbledon data. In addition, the results of Pearson Correlation Coefficient indicate that the momentum indicators, such as Player Win Streak and Score Difference, have a strong correlation among them, revealing insightful trends among players transitioning between losing and winning streaks. Subsequently, we refine the CV-GRNN model by incorporating 15 statistically significant indicators, resulting in an increase in accuracy to 86.64% and a decrease in MSE by 49.21%. This consequently strengthens the methodological framework for predicting tennis match outcomes, emphasizing its practical utility and potential for adaptation in various athletic contexts.

This review gives an overview of the development of machine learning in geoscience. A thorough analysis of the co-developments of machine learning applications throughout the last 70 years relates the recent enthusiasm for machine learning to developments in geoscience. I explore the shift of kriging towards a mainstream machine learning method and the historic application of neural networks in geoscience, following the general trend of machine learning enthusiasm through the decades. Furthermore, this chapter explores the shift from mathematical fundamentals and knowledge in software development towards skills in model validation, applied statistics, and integrated subject matter expertise. The review is interspersed with code examples to complement the theoretical foundations and illustrate model validation and machine learning explainability for science. The scope of this review includes various shallow machine learning methods, e.g. Decision Trees, Random Forests, Support-Vector Machines, and Gaussian Processes, as well as, deep neural networks, including feed-forward neural networks, convolutional neural networks, recurrent neural networks and generative adversarial networks. Regarding geoscience, the review has a bias towards geophysics but aims to strike a balance with geochemistry, geostatistics, and geology, however excludes remote sensing, as this would exceed the scope. In general, I aim to provide context for the recent enthusiasm surrounding deep learning with respect to research, hardware, and software developments that enable successful application of shallow and deep machine learning in all disciplines of Earth science.

Model interpretability is a requirement in many applications in which crucial decisions are made by users relying on a model's outputs. The recent movement for "algorithmic fairness" also stipulates explainability, and therefore interpretability of learning models. And yet the most successful contemporary Machine Learning approaches, the Deep Neural Networks, produce models that are highly non-interpretable. We attempt to address this challenge by proposing a technique called CNN-INTE to interpret deep Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) via meta-learning. In this work, we interpret a specific hidden layer of the deep CNN model on the MNIST image dataset. We use a clustering algorithm in a two-level structure to find the meta-level training data and Random Forest as base learning algorithms to generate the meta-level test data. The interpretation results are displayed visually via diagrams, which clearly indicates how a specific test instance is classified. Our method achieves global interpretation for all the test instances without sacrificing the accuracy obtained by the original deep CNN model. This means our model is faithful to the deep CNN model, which leads to reliable interpretations.

Often we wish to predict a large number of variables that depend on each other as well as on other observed variables. Structured prediction methods are essentially a combination of classification and graphical modeling, combining the ability of graphical models to compactly model multivariate data with the ability of classification methods to perform prediction using large sets of input features. This tutorial describes conditional random fields, a popular probabilistic method for structured prediction. CRFs have seen wide application in natural language processing, computer vision, and bioinformatics. We describe methods for inference and parameter estimation for CRFs, including practical issues for implementing large scale CRFs. We do not assume previous knowledge of graphical modeling, so this tutorial is intended to be useful to practitioners in a wide variety of fields.

Finding the mode of a high dimensional probability distribution D is a fundamental algorithmic problem in statistics and data analysis. There has been particular interest in efficient methods for solving the problem when D is represented as a mixture model or kernel density estimate, although few algorithmic results with worst-case approximation and runtime guarantees are known. In this work, we significantly generalize a result of (LeeLiMusco:2021) on mode approximation for Gaussian mixture models. We develop randomized dimensionality reduction methods for mixtures involving a broader class of kernels, including the popular logistic, sigmoid, and generalized Gaussian kernels. As in Lee et al.'s work, our dimensionality reduction results yield quasi-polynomial algorithms for mode finding with multiplicative accuracy (1-epsilon) for any epsilon > 0. Moreover, when combined with gradient descent, they yield efficient practical heuristics for the problem. In addition to our positive results, we prove a hardness result for box kernels, showing that there is no polynomial time algorithm for finding the mode of a kernel density estimate, unless P = NP. Obtaining similar hardness results for kernels used in practice (like Gaussian or logistic kernels) is an interesting future direction.

We study the approximability of an existing framework for clustering edge-colored hypergraphs, which is closely related to chromatic correlation clustering and is motivated by machine learning and data mining applications where the goal is to cluster a set of objects based on multiway interactions of different categories or types. We present improved approximation guarantees based on linear programming, and show they are tight by proving a matching integrality gap. Our results also include new approximation hardness results, a combinatorial 2-approximation whose runtime is linear in the hypergraph size, and several new connections to well-studied objectives such as vertex cover and hypergraph multiway cut.

A modified LAB algorithm is introduced in this paper. It builds upon the original LAB algorithm (Reddy et al. 2023), which is a socio-inspired algorithm that models competitive and learning behaviours within a group, establishing hierarchical roles. The proposed algorithm incorporates the roulette wheel approach and a reduction factor introducing inter-group competition and iteratively narrowing down the sample space. The algorithm is validated by solving the benchmark test problems from CEC 2005 and CEC 2017. The solutions are validated using standard statistical tests such as two-sided and pairwise signed rank Wilcoxon test and Friedman rank test. The algorithm exhibited improved and superior robustness as well as search space exploration capabilities. Furthermore, a Clustering-Based Search Space Reduction (C-SSR) method is proposed, making the algorithm capable to solve constrained problems. The C-SSR method enables the algorithm to identify clusters of feasible regions, satisfying the constraints and contributing to achieve the optimal solution. This method demonstrates its effectiveness as a potential alternative to traditional constraint handling techniques. The results obtained using the Modified LAB algorithm are then compared with those achieved by other recent metaheuristic algorithms.

Checklists are simple decision aids that are often used to promote safety and reliability in clinical applications. In this paper, we present a method to learn checklists for clinical decision support. We represent predictive checklists as discrete linear classifiers with binary features and unit weights. We then learn globally optimal predictive checklists from data by solving an integer programming problem. Our method allows users to customize checklists to obey complex constraints, including constraints to enforce group fairness and to binarize real-valued features at training time. In addition, it pairs models with an optimality gap that can inform model development and determine the feasibility of learning sufficiently accurate checklists on a given dataset. We pair our method with specialized techniques that speed up its ability to train a predictive checklist that performs well and has a small optimality gap. We benchmark the performance of our method on seven clinical classification problems, and demonstrate its practical benefits by training a short-form checklist for PTSD screening. Our results show that our method can fit simple predictive checklists that perform well and that can easily be customized to obey a rich class of custom constraints.

We propose a new class of online learning algorithms, generalized implicit Follow-The-Regularized-Leader (FTRL), that expands the scope of FTRL framework. Generalized implicit FTRL can recover known algorithms, as FTRL with linearized losses and implicit FTRL, and it allows the design of new update rules, as extensions of aProx and Mirror-Prox to FTRL. Our theory is constructive in the sense that it provides a simple unifying framework to design updates that directly improve the worst-case upper bound on the regret. The key idea is substituting the linearization of the losses with a Fenchel-Young inequality. We show the flexibility of the framework by proving that some known algorithms, like the Mirror-Prox updates, are instantiations of the generalized implicit FTRL. Finally, the new framework allows us to recover the temporal variation bound of implicit OMD, with the same computational complexity.