Daily Papers

Diffusion models achieve strong performance in generative modeling, but their success often relies heavily on classifier-free guidance (CFG), an inference-time heuristic that modifies the sampling trajectory. In theory, diffusion models trained with standard denoising score matching (DSM) should recover the target data distribution, raising two fundamental questions: (i) why is inference-time guidance necessary in practice, and (ii) can its underlying effect be internalized into a principled training objective? In this work, we argue that a key limitation of standard DSM is insufficient inter-class separation. To address this issue, we propose MCLR, an alignment objective that explicitly maximizes inter-class likelihood-ratios during training. Fine-tuning diffusion models with MCLR induces CFG-like improvements under standard sampling, substantially improving guidance-free conditional generation and narrowing the gap to inference-time CFG. Beyond these empirical benefits, we show theoretically that the CFG-guided score is exactly the optimal solution to a sample-adaptive weighted MCLR objective. This result connects CFG to alignment-based objectives, providing a mechanistic interpretation of CFG as an implicit inference-time contrastive alignment procedure.

Different from its counterpart outcome reward models (ORMs), which evaluate the entire responses, a process reward model (PRM) scores a reasoning trajectory step by step, providing denser and more fine grained rewards. However, training a PRM requires labels annotated at every intermediate step, presenting significant challenges for both manual and automatic data collection. This paper aims to address this challenge. Both theoretically and empirically, we show that an implicit PRM can be obtained at no additional cost, by simply training an ORM on the cheaper response-level labels. The only assumption is to parameterize the outcome reward as the log-likelihood ratios of the policy and reference models, which can be optimized regardless of the specific choice of loss objectives. In experiments, we instantiate our implicit PRMs with various objectives and evaluate their performance on MATH. We show that our implicit PRM outperforms a strong MCTS-based baseline \'a la Math-Shepherd using less than 1/38 of the training data. Its performance can be further improved with majority voting. We further find that scaling up instructions and responses benefits our implicit PRM, and the latter brings a larger gain. Particularly, we find that our implicit PRM, when instantiated with the cross-entropy (CE) loss, is more data-efficient and can keep improving generation models even when trained with only one response per instruction, the setup that suffers from extreme data scarcity and imbalance. Further, instructions should be relevant to downstream tasks while the diversity of responses does not bring gains. Surprisingly, training on extra Math-Shepherd step labels brings no further improvements to our implicit PRM trained on only outcome data. We hope that our work will encourage a rethinking of PRM training approaches and contribute to making training PRMs more accessible.

Smartphones and smartwatches are ever-present in daily life, and provide a rich source of information on their users' behaviour. In particular, digital traces derived from the phone's embedded movement sensors present an opportunity for a forensic investigator to gain insight into a person's physical activities. In this work, we present a machine learning-based approach to translate digital traces into likelihood ratios (LRs) for different types of physical activities. Evaluating on a new dataset, NFI\_FARED, which contains digital traces from four different types of iPhones labelled with 19 activities, it was found that our approach could produce useful LR systems to distinguish 167 out of a possible 171 activity pairings. The same approach was extended to analyse likelihoods for multiple activities (or groups of activities) simultaneously and create activity timelines to aid in both the early and latter stages of forensic investigations. The dataset and all code required to replicate the results have also been made public to encourage further research on this topic.

Direct Alignment Algorithms (DAAs) simplify language model alignment by replacing reinforcement learning (RL) and reward modeling (RM) in Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) with direct policy optimization. DAAs can be classified by their ranking losses (pairwise vs. pointwise), by the rewards used in those losses (e.g., likelihood ratios of policy and reference policy, or odds ratios), or by whether a Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) phase is required (two-stage vs. one-stage). We first show that one-stage methods underperform two-stage methods. To address this, we incorporate an explicit SFT phase and introduce the beta parameter, controlling the strength of preference optimization, into single-stage ORPO and ASFT. These modifications improve their performance in Alpaca Eval 2 by +3.46 (ORPO) and +8.27 (ASFT), matching two-stage methods like DPO. Further analysis reveals that the key factor is whether the approach uses pairwise or pointwise objectives, rather than the specific implicit reward or loss function. These results highlight the importance of careful evaluation to avoid premature claims of performance gains or overall superiority in alignment algorithms.

Reinforcement Learning with Verified Reward (RLVR) has emerged as a critical paradigm for advancing the reasoning capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs). Most existing RLVR methods, such as GRPO and its variants, ensure stable updates by constraining policy divergence through clipping likelihood ratios. This paper introduces a unified clipping framework that characterizes existing methods via a general notion of policy divergence, encompassing both likelihood ratios and Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergences and extending to alternative measures. The framework provides a principled foundation for systematically analyzing how different policy divergence measures affect exploration and performance. We further identify the KL3 estimator, a variance-reduced Monte Carlo estimator of the KL divergence, as a key policy divergence constraint. We theoretically demonstrate that the KL3-based constraint is mathematically equivalent to an asymmetric ratio-based clipping that reallocates probability mass toward high-confidence actions, promoting stronger exploration while retaining the simplicity of GRPO-style methods. Empirical results on mathematical reasoning benchmarks demonstrate that incorporating the KL3 estimator into GRPO improves both training stability and final performance, highlighting the importance of principled policy divergence constraints in policy optimization.

Modern ML applications increasingly rely on complex deep learning models and large datasets. There has been an exponential growth in the amount of computation needed to train the largest models. Therefore, to scale computation and data, these models are inevitably trained in a distributed manner in clusters of nodes, and their updates are aggregated before being applied to the model. However, a distributed setup is prone to Byzantine failures of individual nodes, components, and software. With data augmentation added to these settings, there is a critical need for robust and efficient aggregation systems. We define the quality of workers as reconstruction ratios in (0,1], and formulate aggregation as a Maximum Likelihood Estimation procedure using Beta densities. We show that the Regularized form of log-likelihood wrt subspace can be approximately solved using iterative least squares solver, and provide convergence guarantees using recent Convex Optimization landscape results. Our empirical findings demonstrate that our approach significantly enhances the robustness of state-of-the-art Byzantine resilient aggregators. We evaluate our method in a distributed setup with a parameter server, and show simultaneous improvements in communication efficiency and accuracy across various tasks. The code is publicly available at https://github.com/hamidralmasi/FlagAggregator

This paper introduces Group Sequence Policy Optimization (GSPO), our stable, efficient, and performant reinforcement learning algorithm for training large language models. Unlike previous algorithms that adopt token-level importance ratios, GSPO defines the importance ratio based on sequence likelihood and performs sequence-level clipping, rewarding, and optimization. We demonstrate that GSPO achieves superior training efficiency and performance compared to the GRPO algorithm, notably stabilizes Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) RL training, and has the potential for simplifying the design of RL infrastructure. These merits of GSPO have contributed to the remarkable improvements in the latest Qwen3 models.

Among on-policy reinforcement learning algorithms, Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) demonstrates is widely favored for its simplicity, numerical stability, and strong empirical performance. Standard PPO relies on surrogate objectives defined via importance ratios, which require evaluating policy likelihood that is typically straightforward when the policy is modeled as a Gaussian distribution. However, extending PPO to more expressive, high-capacity policy models such as continuous normalizing flows (CNFs), also known as flow-matching models, is challenging because likelihood evaluation along the full flow trajectory is computationally expensive and often numerically unstable. To resolve this issue, we propose PolicyFlow, a novel on-policy CNF-based reinforcement learning algorithm that integrates expressive CNF policies with PPO-style objectives without requiring likelihood evaluation along the full flow path. PolicyFlow approximates importance ratios using velocity field variations along a simple interpolation path, reducing computational overhead without compromising training stability. To further prevent mode collapse and further encourage diverse behaviors, we propose the Brownian Regularizer, an implicit policy entropy regularizer inspired by Brownian motion, which is conceptually elegant and computationally lightweight. Experiments on diverse tasks across various environments including MultiGoal, PointMaze, IsaacLab and MuJoCo Playground show that PolicyFlow achieves competitive or superior performance compared to PPO using Gaussian policies and flow-based baselines including FPO and DPPO. Notably, results on MultiGoal highlight PolicyFlow's ability to capture richer multimodal action distributions.

Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) is highly effective for post-training autoregressive (AR) language models, yet its direct application to diffusion large language models (dLLMs) often triggers reward collapse. We identify two sources of incompatibility. First, GRPO relies on importance ratios defined by sequence probabilities, which are intractable in dLLMs and must be estimated (e.g., via ELBO-based or mean-field likelihood proxies), yielding inherently noisy ratios. Second, standard GRPO's formulation is not designed for estimated ratios: its conditional clipping can be anomalously bypassed by model-agnostic estimation noise, producing gradient spikes, while its fixed group-size normalization amplifies gradient-magnitude fluctuations under high-variance ratio estimates. We show these effects form a self-reinforcing instability loop that drives policy drift and further increases ratio variance. To break this loop, we propose StableDRL, a reformulation of GRPO tailored for dLLMs that uses (i) unconditional clipping to suppress outlier-induced spikes and (ii) self-normalization to constrain updates within the convex hull of per-sample gradients. We further extend StableDRL to block-wise diffusion models via a staircase attention mechanism.

We consider the problem of conformal prediction under covariate shift. Given labeled data from a source domain and unlabeled data from a covariate shifted target domain, we seek to construct prediction sets with valid marginal coverage in the target domain. Most existing methods require estimating the unknown likelihood ratio function, which can be prohibitive for high-dimensional data such as images. To address this challenge, we introduce the likelihood ratio regularized quantile regression (LR-QR) algorithm, which combines the pinball loss with a novel choice of regularization in order to construct a threshold function without directly estimating the unknown likelihood ratio. We show that the LR-QR method has coverage at the desired level in the target domain, up to a small error term that we can control. Our proofs draw on a novel analysis of coverage via stability bounds from learning theory. Our experiments demonstrate that the LR-QR algorithm outperforms existing methods on high-dimensional prediction tasks, including a regression task for the Communities and Crime dataset, an image classification task from the WILDS repository, and an LLM question-answering task on the MMLU benchmark.

Class incremental learning (CIL) is a challenging setting of continual learning, which learns a series of tasks sequentially. Each task consists of a set of unique classes. The key feature of CIL is that no task identifier (or task-id) is provided at test time. Predicting the task-id for each test sample is a challenging problem. An emerging theory-guided approach (called TIL+OOD) is to train a task-specific model for each task in a shared network for all tasks based on a task-incremental learning (TIL) method to deal with catastrophic forgetting. The model for each task is an out-of-distribution (OOD) detector rather than a conventional classifier. The OOD detector can perform both within-task (in-distribution (IND)) class prediction and OOD detection. The OOD detection capability is the key to task-id prediction during inference. However, this paper argues that using a traditional OOD detector for task-id prediction is sub-optimal because additional information (e.g., the replay data and the learned tasks) available in CIL can be exploited to design a better and principled method for task-id prediction. We call the new method TPL (Task-id Prediction based on Likelihood Ratio). TPL markedly outperforms strong CIL baselines and has negligible catastrophic forgetting. The code of TPL is publicly available at https://github.com/linhaowei1/TPL.

While backpropagation (BP) is the mainstream approach for gradient computation in neural network training, its heavy reliance on the chain rule of differentiation constrains the designing flexibility of network architecture and training pipelines. We avoid the recursive computation in BP and develop a unified likelihood ratio (ULR) method for gradient estimation with just one forward propagation. Not only can ULR be extended to train a wide variety of neural network architectures, but the computation flow in BP can also be rearranged by ULR for better device adaptation. Moreover, we propose several variance reduction techniques to further accelerate the training process. Our experiments offer numerical results across diverse aspects, including various neural network training scenarios, computation flow rearrangement, and fine-tuning of pre-trained models. All findings demonstrate that ULR effectively enhances the flexibility of neural network training by permitting localized module training without compromising the global objective and significantly boosts the network robustness.

While likelihood-based generative models, particularly diffusion and autoregressive models, have achieved remarkable fidelity in visual generation, the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) objective inherently suffers from a mode-covering tendency that limits the generation quality under limited model capacity. In this work, we propose Direct Discriminative Optimization (DDO) as a unified framework that bridges likelihood-based generative training and the GAN objective to bypass this fundamental constraint. Our key insight is to parameterize a discriminator implicitly using the likelihood ratio between a learnable target model and a fixed reference model, drawing parallels with the philosophy of Direct Preference Optimization (DPO). Unlike GANs, this parameterization eliminates the need for joint training of generator and discriminator networks, allowing for direct, efficient, and effective finetuning of a well-trained model to its full potential beyond the limits of MLE. DDO can be performed iteratively in a self-play manner for progressive model refinement, with each round requiring less than 1% of pretraining epochs. Our experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of DDO by significantly advancing the previous SOTA diffusion model EDM, reducing FID scores from 1.79/1.58 to new records of 1.30/0.97 on CIFAR-10/ImageNet-64 datasets, and by consistently improving both guidance-free and CFG-enhanced FIDs of visual autoregressive models on ImageNet 256times256.

We revisit the likelihood ratio between a pretrained large language model (LLM) and its finetuned variant as a criterion for out-of-distribution (OOD) detection. The intuition behind such a criterion is that, the pretrained LLM has the prior knowledge about OOD data due to its large amount of training data, and once finetuned with the in-distribution data, the LLM has sufficient knowledge to distinguish their difference. Leveraging the power of LLMs, we show that, the likelihood ratio can serve as an effective OOD detection criterion. Moreover, we apply the proposed LLM-based likelihood ratio to detect OOD questions in question-answering (QA) systems, which can be used to improve the performance of specialized LLMs for general questions. Given that likelihood can be easily obtained by the loss functions within contemporary neural network frameworks, it is straightforward to implement this approach in practice. Since both the pretrained LLMs and its various finetuned models are widely available from online platforms such as Hugging Face, our proposed criterion can be effortlessly incorporated for OOD detection without the need for further training. We conduct comprehensive evaluation across on multiple settings, including far OOD, near OOD, spam detection, and QA scenarios, to demonstrate the effectiveness of the method. Code can be found at https://github.com/andiac/LLMOODratio

Automated analysis of complex systems based on multiple readouts remains a challenge. Change point detection algorithms are aimed to locating abrupt changes in the time series behaviour of a process. In this paper, we present a novel change point detection algorithm based on Latent Neural Stochastic Differential Equations (SDE). Our method learns a non-linear deep learning transformation of the process into a latent space and estimates a SDE that describes its evolution over time. The algorithm uses the likelihood ratio of the learned stochastic processes in different timestamps to find change points of the process. We demonstrate the detection capabilities and performance of our algorithm on synthetic and real-world datasets. The proposed method outperforms the state-of-the-art algorithms on the majority of our experiments.

A membership inference attack allows an adversary to query a trained machine learning model to predict whether or not a particular example was contained in the model's training dataset. These attacks are currently evaluated using average-case "accuracy" metrics that fail to characterize whether the attack can confidently identify any members of the training set. We argue that attacks should instead be evaluated by computing their true-positive rate at low (e.g., <0.1%) false-positive rates, and find most prior attacks perform poorly when evaluated in this way. To address this we develop a Likelihood Ratio Attack (LiRA) that carefully combines multiple ideas from the literature. Our attack is 10x more powerful at low false-positive rates, and also strictly dominates prior attacks on existing metrics.

In 2013, the IceCube collaboration announced the detection of a diffuse high-energy astrophysical neutrino flux. The origin of this flux is still largely unknown. The most significant individual source is the close-by Seyfert galaxy NGC 1068 at 4.2-sigma level with a soft spectral index. To identify sources based on their counterpart, IceCube releases realtime alerts corresponding to neutrinos with a high probability of astrophysical origin. We report here the spatial coincidence of two neutrino alerts, IC220424A and IC230416A, with the Seyfert galaxy NGC 7469 at a distance of 70 Mpc. We evaluate, a-posteriori, the chance probability of such a coincidence and discuss this source as a potential neutrino emitter based on its multi-wavelength properties and in comparison to NGC 1068 by performing a Goodness-of-Fit test. The test statistic is derived from a likelihood ratio that includes the neutrino angular uncertainty and the source distance. We apply this test first to a catalog of AGN sources and second to a catalog of Seyfert galaxies only. Our a-posteriori evaluation excludes the possibility of an accidental spatial coincidence of both neutrinos with the Seyfert galaxy NGC 7469 at 3.2-sigma level, leaving open the possibility that either one or both neutrinos originated from the source. To be compatible with non-detections of TeV neutrinos, the source would need to have a hard spectral index.

We here propose a machine learning approach for monitoring particle detectors in real-time. The goal is to assess the compatibility of incoming experimental data with a reference dataset, characterising the data behaviour under normal circumstances, via a likelihood-ratio hypothesis test. The model is based on a modern implementation of kernel methods, nonparametric algorithms that can learn any continuous function given enough data. The resulting approach is efficient and agnostic to the type of anomaly that may be present in the data. Our study demonstrates the effectiveness of this strategy on multivariate data from drift tube chamber muon detectors.

We incorporate discrete and continuous time Markov processes as building blocks into probabilistic graphical models with latent and observed variables. We introduce the automatic Backward Filtering Forward Guiding (BFFG) paradigm (Mider et al., 2021) for programmable inference on latent states and model parameters. Our starting point is a generative model, a forward description of the probabilistic process dynamics. We backpropagate the information provided by observations through the model to transform the generative (forward) model into a pre-conditional model guided by the data. It approximates the actual conditional model with known likelihood-ratio between the two. The backward filter and the forward change of measure are suitable to be incorporated into a probabilistic programming context because they can be formulated as a set of transformation rules. The guided generative model can be incorporated in different approaches to efficiently sample latent states and parameters conditional on observations. We show applicability in a variety of settings, including Markov chains with discrete state space, interacting particle systems, state space models, branching diffusions and Gamma processes.

Anonymized data is highly valuable to both businesses and researchers. A large body of research has however shown the strong limits of the de-identification release-and-forget model, where data is anonymized and shared. This has led to the development of privacy-preserving query-based systems. Based on the idea of "sticky noise", Diffix has been recently proposed as a novel query-based mechanism satisfying alone the EU Article~29 Working Party's definition of anonymization. According to its authors, Diffix adds less noise to answers than solutions based on differential privacy while allowing for an unlimited number of queries. This paper presents a new class of noise-exploitation attacks, exploiting the noise added by the system to infer private information about individuals in the dataset. Our first differential attack uses samples extracted from Diffix in a likelihood ratio test to discriminate between two probability distributions. We show that using this attack against a synthetic best-case dataset allows us to infer private information with 89.4% accuracy using only 5 attributes. Our second cloning attack uses dummy conditions that conditionally strongly affect the output of the query depending on the value of the private attribute. Using this attack on four real-world datasets, we show that we can infer private attributes of at least 93% of the users in the dataset with accuracy between 93.3% and 97.1%, issuing a median of 304 queries per user. We show how to optimize this attack, targeting 55.4% of the users and achieving 91.7% accuracy, using a maximum of only 32 queries per user. Our attacks demonstrate that adding data-dependent noise, as done by Diffix, is not sufficient to prevent inference of private attributes. We furthermore argue that Diffix alone fails to satisfy Art. 29 WP's definition of anonymization. [...]

Membership inference attacks aim to detect if a particular data point was used in training a model. We design a novel statistical test to perform robust membership inference attacks (RMIA) with low computational overhead. We achieve this by a fine-grained modeling of the null hypothesis in our likelihood ratio tests, and effectively leveraging both reference models and reference population data samples. RMIA has superior test power compared with prior methods, throughout the TPR-FPR curve (even at extremely low FPR, as low as 0). Under computational constraints, where only a limited number of pre-trained reference models (as few as 1) are available, and also when we vary other elements of the attack (e.g., data distribution), our method performs exceptionally well, unlike prior attacks that approach random guessing. RMIA lays the groundwork for practical yet accurate data privacy risk assessment in machine learning.

Reinforcement learning (RL) post-training has recently driven major gains in long chain-of-thought reasoning large language models (LLMs), but the high inference cost of such models motivates distillation into smaller students. Most existing knowledge distillation (KD) methods are designed for supervised fine-tuning (SFT), relying on fixed teacher traces or teacher-student Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence-based regularization. When combined with RL, these approaches often suffer from distribution mismatch and objective interference: teacher supervision may not align with the student's evolving rollout distribution, and the KL regularizer can compete with reward maximization and require careful loss balancing. To address these issues, we propose RL-aware distillation (RLAD), which performs selective imitation during RL -- guiding the student toward the teacher only when it improves the current policy update. Our core component, Trust Region Ratio Distillation (TRRD), replaces the teacher-student KL regularizer with a PPO/GRPO-style likelihood-ratio objective anchored to a teacher--old-policy mixture, yielding advantage-aware, trust-region-bounded distillation on student rollouts and naturally balancing exploration, exploitation, and imitation. Across diverse logic reasoning and math benchmarks, RLAD consistently outperforms offline distillation, standard GRPO, and KL-based on-policy teacher-student knowledge distillation.

Language Models (LMs) are prone to ''memorizing'' training data, including substantial sensitive user information. To mitigate privacy risks and safeguard the right to be forgotten, machine unlearning has emerged as a promising approach for enabling LMs to efficiently ''forget'' specific texts. However, despite the good intentions, is textual unlearning really as effective and reliable as expected? To address the concern, we first propose Unlearning Likelihood Ratio Attack+ (U-LiRA+), a rigorous textual unlearning auditing method, and find that unlearned texts can still be detected with very high confidence after unlearning. Further, we conduct an in-depth investigation on the privacy risks of textual unlearning mechanisms in deployment and present the Textual Unlearning Leakage Attack (TULA), along with its variants in both black- and white-box scenarios. We show that textual unlearning mechanisms could instead reveal more about the unlearned texts, exposing them to significant membership inference and data reconstruction risks. Our findings highlight that existing textual unlearning actually gives a false sense of unlearning, underscoring the need for more robust and secure unlearning mechanisms.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are trained on massive text corpora, which are encoded with diverse personality traits. This triggers an interesting goal of eliciting a desired personality trait from the LLM, and probing its behavioral preferences. Accordingly, we formalize the persona elicitation task, aiming to customize LLM behaviors to align with a target persona. We present Persona In-Context Learning (PICLe), a novel persona elicitation framework grounded in Bayesian inference. At the core, PICLe introduces a new ICL example selection criterion based on likelihood ratio, which is designed to optimally guide the model in eliciting a specific target persona. We demonstrate the effectiveness of PICLe through extensive comparisons against baseline methods across three contemporary LLMs. Code is available at https://github.com/deeplearning-wisc/picle.

Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) consist of many low cost and light sensors dispersed in an area to monitor the physical environment. Event detection in WSN area, especially detection of multi-events at the same time, is an important problem. This article is a new attempt for detection of two simultaneous events based on distributed data processing structure and Bayesian criteria. For accurate detection of two simultaneous events, we proposed new decision rules based on likelihood ratio test and also derived probability of detection error based on Bayesian criteria. In addition to multi-event detection, the proposed method is expanded to a fault-tolerant procedure if there are faults in decision making of sensors. Performance of the proposed approach is demonstrated for detection of events in different circumstances. Results show the effectiveness of the algorithm for fault-tolerant multi-event detection.

Large language models (LLMs) undergo a three-phase training process: unsupervised pre-training, supervised fine-tuning (SFT), and learning from human feedback (RLHF/DPO). Notably, it is during the final phase that these models are exposed to negative examples -- incorrect, rejected, or suboptimal responses to queries. This paper delves into the role of negative examples in the training of LLMs, using a likelihood-ratio (Likra) model on multiple-choice question answering benchmarks to precisely manage the influence and the volume of negative examples. Our findings reveal three key insights: (1) During a critical phase in training, Likra with negative examples demonstrates a significantly larger improvement per training example compared to SFT using only positive examples. This leads to a sharp jump in the learning curve for Likra unlike the smooth and gradual improvement of SFT; (2) negative examples that are plausible but incorrect (near-misses) exert a greater influence; and (3) while training with positive examples fails to significantly decrease the likelihood of plausible but incorrect answers, training with negative examples more accurately identifies them. These results indicate a potentially significant role for negative examples in improving accuracy and reducing hallucinations for LLMs.

On-policy distillation is pivotal for transferring reasoning capabilities to capacity-constrained models, yet remains prone to instability and negative transfer. We show that on-policy distillation can be interpreted, both theoretically and empirically, as a form of policy optimization, where the teacher-student log-likelihood ratio acts as a token reward. From this insight, we introduce REOPOLD (Relaxed On-Policy Distillation) a framework that stabilizes optimization by relaxing the strict imitation constraints of standard on-policy distillation. Specifically, REOPOLD temperately and selectively leverages rewards from the teacher through mixture-based reward clipping, entropy-based token-level dynamic sampling, and a unified exploration-to-refinement training strategy. Empirically, REOPOLD surpasses its baselines with superior sample efficiency during training and enhanced test-time scaling at inference, across mathematical, visual, and agentic tool-use reasoning tasks. Specifically, REOPOLD outperforms recent RL approaches achieving 6.7~12x greater sample efficiency and enables a 7B student to match a 32B teacher in visual reasoning with a ~3.32x inference speedup.

Heterogeneous Large Language Model (LLM) fusion integrates the strengths of multiple source LLMs with different architectures into a target LLM with low computational overhead. While promising, existing methods suffer from two major limitations: 1) reliance on real data from limited domain for knowledge fusion, preventing the target LLM from fully acquiring knowledge across diverse domains, and 2) fixed data allocation proportions across domains, failing to dynamically adjust according to the target LLM's varying capabilities across domains, leading to a capability imbalance. To overcome these limitations, we propose Bohdi, a synthetic-data-only heterogeneous LLM fusion framework. Through the organization of knowledge domains into a hierarchical tree structure, Bohdi enables automatic domain exploration and multi-domain data generation through multi-model collaboration, thereby comprehensively extracting knowledge from source LLMs. By formalizing domain expansion and data sampling proportion allocation on the knowledge tree as a Hierarchical Multi-Armed Bandit problem, Bohdi leverages the designed DynaBranches mechanism to adaptively adjust sampling proportions based on the target LLM's performance feedback across domains. Integrated with our proposed Introspection-Rebirth (IR) mechanism, DynaBranches dynamically tracks capability shifts during target LLM's updates via Sliding Window Binomial Likelihood Ratio Testing (SWBLRT), further enhancing its online adaptation capability. Comparative experimental results on a comprehensive suite of benchmarks demonstrate that Bohdi significantly outperforms existing baselines on multiple target LLMs, exhibits higher data efficiency, and virtually eliminates the imbalance in the target LLM's capabilities. Our code is available at https://github.com/gjq100/Bohdi.git.

In a differentially private sequential learning setting, agents introduce endogenous noise into their actions to maintain privacy. Applying this to a standard sequential learning model leads to different outcomes for continuous vs. binary signals. For continuous signals with a nonzero privacy budget, we introduce a novel smoothed randomized response mechanism that adapts noise based on distance to a threshold, unlike traditional randomized response, which applies uniform noise. This enables agents' actions to better reflect both private signals and observed history, accelerating asymptotic learning speed to Theta_{epsilon}(log(n)), compared to Theta(log(n)) in the non-private regime where privacy budget is infinite. Moreover, in the non-private setting, the expected stopping time for the first correct decision and the number of incorrect actions diverge, meaning early agents may make mistakes for an unreasonably long period. In contrast, under a finite privacy budget epsilon in (0,1), both remain finite, highlighting a stark contrast between private and non-private learning. Learning with continuous signals in the private regime is more efficient, as smooth randomized response enhances the log-likelihood ratio over time, improving information aggregation. Conversely, for binary signals, differential privacy noise hinders learning, as agents tend to use a constant randomized response strategy before an information cascade forms, reducing action informativeness and hampering the overall process.

Deep generative models have been demonstrated as state-of-the-art density estimators. Yet, recent work has found that they often assign a higher likelihood to data from outside the training distribution. This seemingly paradoxical behavior has caused concerns over the quality of the attained density estimates. In the context of hierarchical variational autoencoders, we provide evidence to explain this behavior by out-of-distribution data having in-distribution low-level features. We argue that this is both expected and desirable behavior. With this insight in hand, we develop a fast, scalable and fully unsupervised likelihood-ratio score for OOD detection that requires data to be in-distribution across all feature-levels. We benchmark the method on a vast set of data and model combinations and achieve state-of-the-art results on out-of-distribution detection.

Machine learning has become an essential tool in jet physics. Due to their complex, high-dimensional nature, jets can be explored holistically by neural networks in ways that are not possible manually. However, innovations in all areas of jet physics are proceeding in parallel. We show that specially constructed machine learning models trained for a specific jet classification task can improve the accuracy, precision, or speed of all other jet physics tasks. This is demonstrated by training on a particular multiclass generation and classification task and then using the learned representation for different generation and classification tasks, for datasets with a different (full) detector simulation, for jets from a different collision system (pp versus ep), for generative models, for likelihood ratio estimation, and for anomaly detection. We consider, our OmniLearn approach thus as a jet-physics foundation model. It is made publicly available for use in any area where state-of-the-art precision is required for analyses involving jets and their substructure.

The ability of large language models to solve complex mathematical problems has progressed significantly, particularly for tasks requiring advanced reasoning. However, the scarcity of sufficiently challenging problems, particularly at the Olympiad level, hinders further advancements. In this work, we introduce PromptCoT, a novel approach for automatically generating high-quality Olympiad-level math problems. The proposed method synthesizes complex problems based on mathematical concepts and the rationale behind problem construction, emulating the thought processes of experienced problem designers. We provide a theoretical analysis demonstrating that an optimal rationale should maximize both the likelihood of rationale generation given the associated concepts and the likelihood of problem generation conditioned on both the rationale and the concepts. Our method is evaluated on standard benchmarks including GSM8K, MATH-500, and AIME2024, where it consistently outperforms existing problem generation methods. Furthermore, we demonstrate that PromptCoT exhibits superior data scalability, consistently maintaining high performance as the dataset size increases, outperforming the baselines. The implementation is available at https://github.com/zhaoxlpku/PromptCoT.

A prominent family of methods for learning data distributions relies on density ratio estimation (DRE), where a model is trained to classify between data samples and samples from some reference distribution. DRE-based models can directly output the likelihood for any given input, a highly desired property that is lacking in most generative techniques. Nevertheless, to date, DRE methods have failed in accurately capturing the distributions of complex high-dimensional data, like images, and have thus been drawing reduced research attention in recent years. In this work we present classification diffusion models (CDMs), a DRE-based generative method that adopts the formalism of denoising diffusion models (DDMs) while making use of a classifier that predicts the level of noise added to a clean signal. Our method is based on an analytical connection that we derive between the MSE-optimal denoiser for removing white Gaussian noise and the cross-entropy-optimal classifier for predicting the noise level. Our method is the first DRE-based technique that can successfully generate images beyond the MNIST dataset. Furthermore, it can output the likelihood of any input in a single forward pass, achieving state-of-the-art negative log likelihood (NLL) among methods with this property. Code is available on the project's webpage in https://shaharYadin.github.io/CDM/ .

Large Language Models (LLMs) rely on generating extensive intermediate reasoning units (e.g., tokens, sentences) to enhance final answer quality across a wide range of complex tasks. While this approach has proven effective, it inevitably increases substantial inference costs. Previous methods adopting token-level reduction without clear criteria result in poor performance compared to models trained with complete rationale. To address this challenge, we propose a novel sentence-level rationale reduction framework leveraging likelihood-based criteria, verbosity, to identify and remove redundant reasoning sentences. Unlike previous approaches, our method leverages verbosity to selectively remove redundant reasoning sentences while preserving reasoning capabilities. Our experimental results across various reasoning tasks demonstrate that our method improves performance by an average of 7.71% while reducing token generation by 19.87% compared to model trained with complete reasoning paths.

Survival analysis can sometimes involve individuals who will not experience the event of interest, forming what is known as the cured group. Identifying such individuals is not always possible beforehand, as they provide only right-censored data. Ignoring the presence of the cured group can introduce bias in the final model. This paper presents a method for estimating a semiparametric additive hazards model that accounts for the cured fraction. Unlike regression coefficients in a hazard ratio model, those in an additive hazard model measure hazard differences. The proposed method uses a primal-dual interior point algorithm to obtain constrained maximum penalized likelihood estimates of the model parameters, including the regression coefficients and the baseline hazard, subject to certain non-negativity constraints.

A key challenge of modern machine learning systems is to achieve Out-of-Distribution (OOD) generalization -- generalizing to target data whose distribution differs from that of source data. Despite its significant importance, the fundamental question of ``what are the most effective algorithms for OOD generalization'' remains open even under the standard setting of covariate shift. This paper addresses this fundamental question by proving that, surprisingly, classical Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) purely using source data (without any modification) achieves the minimax optimality for covariate shift under the well-specified setting. That is, no algorithm performs better than MLE in this setting (up to a constant factor), justifying MLE is all you need. Our result holds for a very rich class of parametric models, and does not require any boundedness condition on the density ratio. We illustrate the wide applicability of our framework by instantiating it to three concrete examples -- linear regression, logistic regression, and phase retrieval. This paper further complement the study by proving that, under the misspecified setting, MLE is no longer the optimal choice, whereas Maximum Weighted Likelihood Estimator (MWLE) emerges as minimax optimal in certain scenarios.

It is almost always easier to find an accurate-but-complex model than an accurate-yet-simple model. Finding optimal, sparse, accurate models of various forms (linear models with integer coefficients, decision sets, rule lists, decision trees) is generally NP-hard. We often do not know whether the search for a simpler model will be worthwhile, and thus we do not go to the trouble of searching for one. In this work, we ask an important practical question: can accurate-yet-simple models be proven to exist, or shown likely to exist, before explicitly searching for them? We hypothesize that there is an important reason that simple-yet-accurate models often do exist. This hypothesis is that the size of the Rashomon set is often large, where the Rashomon set is the set of almost-equally-accurate models from a function class. If the Rashomon set is large, it contains numerous accurate models, and perhaps at least one of them is the simple model we desire. In this work, we formally present the Rashomon ratio as a new gauge of simplicity for a learning problem, depending on a function class and a data set. The Rashomon ratio is the ratio of the volume of the set of accurate models to the volume of the hypothesis space, and it is different from standard complexity measures from statistical learning theory. Insight from studying the Rashomon ratio provides an easy way to check whether a simpler model might exist for a problem before finding it, namely whether several different machine learning methods achieve similar performance on the data. In that sense, the Rashomon ratio is a powerful tool for understanding why and when an accurate-yet-simple model might exist. If, as we hypothesize in this work, many real-world data sets admit large Rashomon sets, the implications are vast: it means that simple or interpretable models may often be used for high-stakes decisions without losing accuracy.

When fine-tuning pre-trained Large Language Models (LLMs) to align with human values and intentions, maximizing the estimated reward can lead to superior performance, but it also introduces potential risks due to deviations from the reference model's intended behavior. Most existing methods typically introduce KL divergence to constrain deviations between the trained model and the reference model; however, this may not be sufficient in certain applications that require tight risk control. In this paper, we introduce Risk-aware Direct Preference Optimization (Ra-DPO), a novel approach that incorporates risk-awareness by employing a class of nested risk measures. This approach formulates a constrained risk-aware advantage function maximization problem and then converts the Bradley-Terry model into a token-level representation. The objective function maximizes the likelihood of the policy while suppressing the deviation between a trained model and the reference model using a sequential risk ratio, thereby enhancing the model's risk-awareness. Experimental results across three open-source datasets: IMDb Dataset, Anthropic HH Dataset, and AlpacaEval, demonstrate the proposed method's superior performance in balancing alignment performance and model drift. Our code is opensourced at https://github.com/zlj123-max/Ra-DPO.

Long chain-of-thought (CoT) trajectories provide rich supervision signals for distilling reasoning from teacher to student LLMs. However, both prior work and our experiments show that trajectories from stronger teachers do not necessarily yield better students, highlighting the importance of data-student suitability in distillation. Existing methods assess suitability primarily through student likelihood, favoring trajectories that closely align with the model's current behavior but overlooking more informative ones. Addressing this, we propose Rank-Surprisal Ratio (RSR), a simple metric that captures both alignment and informativeness to assess the suitability of a reasoning trajectory. RSR is motivated by the observation that effective trajectories typically combine low absolute probability with relatively high-ranked tokens under the student model, balancing learning signal strength and behavioral alignment. Concretely, RSR is defined as the ratio of a trajectory's average token-wise rank to its average negative log-likelihood, and is straightforward to compute and interpret. Across five student models and reasoning trajectories from 11 diverse teachers, RSR strongly correlates with post-training performance (average Spearman 0.86), outperforming existing metrics. We further demonstrate its practical utility in both trajectory selection and teacher selection.

Diffusion models may be viewed as hierarchical variational autoencoders (VAEs) with two improvements: parameter sharing for the conditional distributions in the generative process and efficient computation of the loss as independent terms over the hierarchy. We consider two changes to the diffusion model that retain these advantages while adding flexibility to the model. Firstly, we introduce a data- and depth-dependent mean function in the diffusion process, which leads to a modified diffusion loss. Our proposed framework, DiffEnc, achieves a statistically significant improvement in likelihood on CIFAR-10. Secondly, we let the ratio of the noise variance of the reverse encoder process and the generative process be a free weight parameter rather than being fixed to 1. This leads to theoretical insights: For a finite depth hierarchy, the evidence lower bound (ELBO) can be used as an objective for a weighted diffusion loss approach and for optimizing the noise schedule specifically for inference. For the infinite-depth hierarchy, on the other hand, the weight parameter has to be 1 to have a well-defined ELBO.

Membership inference attacks (MIAs) pose a critical privacy threat to fine-tuned large language models (LLMs), especially when models are adapted to domain-specific tasks using sensitive data. While prior black-box MIA techniques rely on confidence scores or token likelihoods, these signals are often entangled with a sample's intrinsic properties - such as content difficulty or rarity - leading to poor generalization and low signal-to-noise ratios. In this paper, we propose ICP-MIA, a novel MIA framework grounded in the theory of training dynamics, particularly the phenomenon of diminishing returns during optimization. We introduce the Optimization Gap as a fundamental signal of membership: at convergence, member samples exhibit minimal remaining loss-reduction potential, while non-members retain significant potential for further optimization. To estimate this gap in a black-box setting, we propose In-Context Probing (ICP), a training-free method that simulates fine-tuning-like behavior via strategically constructed input contexts. We propose two probing strategies: reference-data-based (using semantically similar public samples) and self-perturbation (via masking or generation). Experiments on three tasks and multiple LLMs show that ICP-MIA significantly outperforms prior black-box MIAs, particularly at low false positive rates. We further analyze how reference data alignment, model type, PEFT configurations, and training schedules affect attack effectiveness. Our findings establish ICP-MIA as a practical and theoretically grounded framework for auditing privacy risks in deployed LLMs.

Large language models (LLMs) solve problems more accurately and interpretably when instructed to work out the answer step by step using a ``chain-of-thought'' (CoT) prompt. One can also improve LLMs' performance on a specific task by supervised fine-tuning, i.e., by using gradient ascent on some tunable parameters to maximize the average log-likelihood of correct answers from a labeled training set. Naively combining CoT with supervised tuning requires supervision not just of the correct answers, but also of detailed rationales that lead to those answers; these rationales are expensive to produce by hand. Instead, we propose a fine-tuning strategy that tries to maximize the marginal log-likelihood of generating a correct answer using CoT prompting, approximately averaging over all possible rationales. The core challenge is sampling from the posterior over rationales conditioned on the correct answer; we address it using a simple Markov-chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm inspired by the self-taught reasoner (STaR), memoized wake-sleep, Markovian score climbing, and persistent contrastive divergence. This algorithm also admits a novel control-variate technique that drives the variance of our gradient estimates to zero as the model improves. Applying our technique to GSM8K and the tasks in BIG-Bench Hard, we find that this MCMC-EM fine-tuning technique typically improves the model's accuracy on held-out examples more than STaR or prompt-tuning with or without CoT.

Exploration is essential in modern learning, from reinforcement learning environments with small neural policies to large language models (LLMs). Existing work, such as DPO, leverages full sequence log-likelihoods to capture an entire trajectory of the model's decisions, while methods like GRPO aggregate per-token ratios into a trajectory-level update. However, both often limit exploration on long-horizon tasks. We introduce History-Aggregated Exploratory Policy Optimization (HAEPO), a history-aware exploratory loss to combat these shortcomings. HAEPO compresses each trajectory into the sum of its logarithmic probabilities (a cumulative logarithmic likelihood), and applies a Plackett-Luce softmax across trajectories to obtain normalized weights proportional to their returns, thus encouraging broader exploration. We add entropy regularization to stabilize the aggressive updates to prevent premature collapse and a soft KL penalty relative to a frozen copy of the previous (reference) policy. Empirically, HAEPO converges fast, explores thoroughly, aligns closely with true rewards, and demonstrates robust learning behavior better or at par with PPO, GRPO, and DPO across diverse tasks. Thus, HAEPO provides a stable and interpretable framework by explicitly leveraging full-trajectory history while balancing exploration and stability.

We present extensive empirical evidence showing that current Bayesian simulation-based inference algorithms can produce computationally unfaithful posterior approximations. Our results show that all benchmarked algorithms -- (Sequential) Neural Posterior Estimation, (Sequential) Neural Ratio Estimation, Sequential Neural Likelihood and variants of Approximate Bayesian Computation -- can yield overconfident posterior approximations, which makes them unreliable for scientific use cases and falsificationist inquiry. Failing to address this issue may reduce the range of applicability of simulation-based inference. For this reason, we argue that research efforts should be made towards theoretical and methodological developments of conservative approximate inference algorithms and present research directions towards this objective. In this regard, we show empirical evidence that ensembling posterior surrogates provides more reliable approximations and mitigates the issue.

Chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning is critical for improving the interpretability and reliability of Large Vision-Language Models (LVLMs). However, existing training algorithms such as SFT, PPO, and GRPO may not generalize well across unseen reasoning tasks and heavily rely on a biased reward model. To address this challenge, we reformulate reasoning in LVLMs as posterior inference and propose a scalable training algorithm based on amortized variational inference. By leveraging diversity-seeking reinforcement learning algorithms, we introduce a novel sparse reward function for token-level learning signals that encourage diverse, high-likelihood latent CoT, overcoming deterministic sampling limitations and avoiding reward hacking. Additionally, we implement a Bayesian inference-scaling strategy that replaces costly Best-of-N and Beam Search with a marginal likelihood to efficiently rank optimal rationales and answers. We empirically demonstrate that the proposed method enhances the state-of-the-art LVLMs on seven reasoning benchmarks, in terms of effectiveness, generalization, and interpretability.

Recent developments in Large Language Models pre-trained on extensive corpora have shown significant success in various natural language processing tasks with minimal fine-tuning. This success offers new promise for robotics, which has long been constrained by the high cost of action-labeled data. We ask: given the abundant video data containing interaction-related knowledge available as a rich "corpus", can a similar generative pre-training approach be effectively applied to enhance robot learning? The key challenge is to identify an effective representation for autoregressive pre-training that benefits robot manipulation tasks. Inspired by the way humans learn new skills through observing dynamic environments, we propose that effective robotic learning should emphasize motion-related knowledge, which is closely tied to low-level actions and is hardware-agnostic, facilitating the transfer of learned motions to actual robot actions. To this end, we introduce Moto, which converts video content into latent Motion Token sequences by a Latent Motion Tokenizer, learning a bridging "language" of motion from videos in an unsupervised manner. We pre-train Moto-GPT through motion token autoregression, enabling it to capture diverse visual motion knowledge. After pre-training, Moto-GPT demonstrates the promising ability to produce semantically interpretable motion tokens, predict plausible motion trajectories, and assess trajectory rationality through output likelihood. To transfer learned motion priors to real robot actions, we implement a co-fine-tuning strategy that seamlessly bridges latent motion token prediction and real robot control. Extensive experiments show that the fine-tuned Moto-GPT exhibits superior robustness and efficiency on robot manipulation benchmarks, underscoring its effectiveness in transferring knowledge from video data to downstream visual manipulation tasks.