Daily Papers

Training modern large language models (LLMs) has become a veritable smorgasbord of algorithms and datasets designed to elicit particular behaviors, making it critical to develop techniques to understand the effects of datasets on the model's properties. This is exacerbated by recent experiments that show datasets can transmit signals that are not directly observable from individual datapoints, posing a conceptual challenge for dataset-centric understandings of LLM training and suggesting a missing fundamental account of such phenomena. Towards understanding such effects, inspired by recent work on the linear structure of LLMs, we uncover a general mechanism through which hidden subtexts can arise in generic datasets. We introduce Logit-Linear-Selection (LLS), a method that prescribes how to select subsets of a generic preference dataset to elicit a wide range of hidden effects. We apply LLS to discover subsets of real-world datasets so that models trained on them exhibit behaviors ranging from having specific preferences, to responding to prompts in a different language not present in the dataset, to taking on a different persona. Crucially, the effect persists for the selected subset, across models with varying architectures, supporting its generality and universality.

Sycophantic agreement refers to a behavior in which language models excessively affirm the user, often at the cost of factual accuracy. Although sycophantic agreement is a well-known failure of model alignment, there is limited understanding of how it emerges from model training. In this work, we demonstrate that sycophantic agreement can emerge as an unintended consequence of widely used contrastive preference optimization objectives. Using the OLMo 3 post-training pipeline, we show that, for various pairs of teacher models across three families, there is a strong correlation between the log-ratio of the teacher model sycophantic agreement rates and the resulting student model sycophantic agreement rate. We further demonstrate that this unintended transfer is not limited to DPO but also occurs across 6 other preference optimization objectives. To understand whether this effect can be attributed to particular training examples, we analyze the preference data and find that the sycophancy signal is diffused across the entire dataset rather than concentrated in a sparse set of examples: each example appears neutral, i.e., there are no explicit instances of sycophantic agreement, and filtering based on probe-based data attribution or logit-linear selection fails to mitigate sycophancy without removing a large portion of the dataset. Overall, our findings suggest that the teacher models used to generate preference data can interact with alignment training objectives in unexpected ways, generalizing to undesirable and potentially harmful behaviors like sycophantic agreement.

Steering vectors work for some concepts and layers but fail for others, and practitioners have no way to predict which setting applies before running an intervention. We introduce the Linear Accessibility Profile (LAP), a per-layer diagnostic that repurposes the logit lens as a predictor of steering vector effectiveness. The key measure, A_{lin}, applies the model's unembedding matrix to intermediate hidden states, requiring no training. Across 24 controlled binary concept families on five models (Pythia-2.8B to Llama-8B), peak A_{lin} predicts steering effectiveness at ρ= +0.86 to +0.91 and layer selection at ρ= +0.63 to +0.92. A three-regime framework explains when difference-of-means steering works, when nonlinear methods are needed, and when no method can work. An entity-steering demo confirms the prediction end-to-end: steering at the LAP-recommended layer redirects completions on Gemma-2-2B and OLMo-2-1B-Instruct, while the middle layer (the standard heuristic) has no effect on either model.

Leveraging the models' outputs, specifically the logits, is a common approach to estimating the test accuracy of a pre-trained neural network on out-of-distribution (OOD) samples without requiring access to the corresponding ground truth labels. Despite their ease of implementation and computational efficiency, current logit-based methods are vulnerable to overconfidence issues, leading to prediction bias, especially under the natural shift. In this work, we first study the relationship between logits and generalization performance from the view of low-density separation assumption. Our findings motivate our proposed method MaNo which (1) applies a data-dependent normalization on the logits to reduce prediction bias, and (2) takes the L_p norm of the matrix of normalized logits as the estimation score. Our theoretical analysis highlights the connection between the provided score and the model's uncertainty. We conduct an extensive empirical study on common unsupervised accuracy estimation benchmarks and demonstrate that MaNo achieves state-of-the-art performance across various architectures in the presence of synthetic, natural, or subpopulation shifts.

This research paper investigates the effectiveness of simple linear models versus complex machine learning techniques in breast cancer diagnosis, emphasizing the importance of interpretability and computational efficiency in the medical domain. We focus on Logistic Regression (LR), Decision Trees (DT), and Support Vector Machines (SVM) and optimize their performance using the UCI Machine Learning Repository dataset. Our findings demonstrate that the simpler linear model, LR, outperforms the more complex DT and SVM techniques, with a test score mean of 97.28%, a standard deviation of 1.62%, and a computation time of 35.56 ms. In comparison, DT achieved a test score mean of 93.73%, and SVM had a test score mean of 96.44%. The superior performance of LR can be attributed to its simplicity and interpretability, which provide a clear understanding of the relationship between input features and the outcome. This is particularly valuable in the medical domain, where interpretability is crucial for decision-making. Moreover, the computational efficiency of LR offers advantages in terms of scalability and real-world applicability. The results of this study highlight the power of simplicity in the context of breast cancer diagnosis and suggest that simpler linear models like LR can be more effective, interpretable, and computationally efficient than their complex counterparts, making them a more suitable choice for medical applications.

Recently, pre-trained vision-language models (e.g., CLIP) have shown great potential in few-shot learning and attracted a lot of research interest. Although efforts have been made to improve few-shot ability of CLIP, key factors on the effectiveness of existing methods have not been well studied, limiting further exploration of CLIP's potential in few-shot learning. In this paper, we first introduce a unified formulation to analyze CLIP-based few-shot learning methods from a perspective of logit bias, which encourages us to learn an effective logit bias for further improving performance of CLIP-based few-shot learning methods. To this end, we disassemble three key components involved in computation of logit bias (i.e., logit features, logit predictor, and logit fusion) and empirically analyze the effect on performance of few-shot classification. Based on analysis of key components, this paper proposes a novel AMU-Tuning method to learn effective logit bias for CLIP-based few-shot classification. Specifically, our AMU-Tuning predicts logit bias by exploiting the appropriate textbf{A}uxiliary features, which are fed into an efficient feature-initialized linear classifier with textbf{M}ulti-branch training. Finally, an textbf{U}ncertainty-based fusion is developed to incorporate logit bias into CLIP for few-shot classification. The experiments are conducted on several widely used benchmarks, and the results show AMU-Tuning clearly outperforms its counterparts while achieving state-of-the-art performance of CLIP-based few-shot learning without bells and whistles.

A large-scale deep model pre-trained on massive labeled or unlabeled data transfers well to downstream tasks. Linear evaluation freezes parameters in the pre-trained model and trains a linear classifier separately, which is efficient and attractive for transfer. However, little work has investigated the classifier in linear evaluation except for the default logistic regression. Inspired by the statistical efficiency of naive Bayes, the paper revisits the classical topic on discriminative vs. generative classifiers. Theoretically, the paper considers the surrogate loss instead of the zero-one loss in analyses and generalizes the classical results from binary cases to multiclass ones. We show that, under mild assumptions, multiclass naive Bayes requires O(log n) samples to approach its asymptotic error while the corresponding multiclass logistic regression requires O(n) samples, where n is the feature dimension. To establish it, we present a multiclass H-consistency bound framework and an explicit bound for logistic loss, which are of independent interests. Simulation results on a mixture of Gaussian validate our theoretical findings. Experiments on various pre-trained deep vision models show that naive Bayes consistently converges faster as the number of data increases. Besides, naive Bayes shows promise in few-shot cases and we observe the "two regimes" phenomenon in pre-trained supervised models. Our code is available at https://github.com/ML-GSAI/Revisiting-Dis-vs-Gen-Classifiers.

A key challenge of modern machine learning systems is to achieve Out-of-Distribution (OOD) generalization -- generalizing to target data whose distribution differs from that of source data. Despite its significant importance, the fundamental question of ``what are the most effective algorithms for OOD generalization'' remains open even under the standard setting of covariate shift. This paper addresses this fundamental question by proving that, surprisingly, classical Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) purely using source data (without any modification) achieves the minimax optimality for covariate shift under the well-specified setting. That is, no algorithm performs better than MLE in this setting (up to a constant factor), justifying MLE is all you need. Our result holds for a very rich class of parametric models, and does not require any boundedness condition on the density ratio. We illustrate the wide applicability of our framework by instantiating it to three concrete examples -- linear regression, logistic regression, and phase retrieval. This paper further complement the study by proving that, under the misspecified setting, MLE is no longer the optimal choice, whereas Maximum Weighted Likelihood Estimator (MWLE) emerges as minimax optimal in certain scenarios.

We present a method to integrate Large Language Models (LLMs) and traditional tabular data classification techniques, addressing LLMs challenges like data serialization sensitivity and biases. We introduce two strategies utilizing LLMs for ranking categorical variables and generating priors on correlations between continuous variables and targets, enhancing performance in few-shot scenarios. We focus on Logistic Regression, introducing MonotonicLR that employs a non-linear monotonic function for mapping ordinals to cardinals while preserving LLM-determined orders. Validation against baseline models reveals the superior performance of our approach, especially in low-data scenarios, while remaining interpretable.

Bandits with preference feedback present a powerful tool for optimizing unknown target functions when only pairwise comparisons are allowed instead of direct value queries. This model allows for incorporating human feedback into online inference and optimization and has been employed in systems for fine-tuning large language models. The problem is well understood in simplified settings with linear target functions or over finite small domains that limit practical interest. Taking the next step, we consider infinite domains and nonlinear (kernelized) rewards. In this setting, selecting a pair of actions is quite challenging and requires balancing exploration and exploitation at two levels: within the pair, and along the iterations of the algorithm. We propose MAXMINLCB, which emulates this trade-off as a zero-sum Stackelberg game, and chooses action pairs that are informative and yield favorable rewards. MAXMINLCB consistently outperforms existing algorithms and satisfies an anytime-valid rate-optimal regret guarantee. This is due to our novel preference-based confidence sequences for kernelized logistic estimators.

This paper extends the classic theory of convex optimization to the minimization of functions that are equal to the negated logarithm of what we term as a sum-log-concave function, i.e., a sum of log-concave functions. In particular, we show that such functions are in general not convex but still satisfy generalized convexity inequalities. These inequalities unveil the key importance of a certain vector that we call the cross-gradient and that is, in general, distinct from the usual gradient. Thus, we propose the Cross Gradient Descent (XGD) algorithm moving in the opposite direction of the cross-gradient and derive a convergence analysis. As an application of our sum-log-concave framework, we introduce the so-called checkered regression method relying on a sum-log-concave function. This classifier extends (multiclass) logistic regression to non-linearly separable problems since it is capable of tessellating the feature space by using any given number of hyperplanes, creating a checkerboard-like pattern of decision regions.

Block coordinate descent (BCD) methods are widely used for large-scale numerical optimization because of their cheap iteration costs, low memory requirements, amenability to parallelization, and ability to exploit problem structure. Three main algorithmic choices influence the performance of BCD methods: the block partitioning strategy, the block selection rule, and the block update rule. In this paper we explore all three of these building blocks and propose variations for each that can significantly improve the progress made by each BCD iteration. We (i) propose new greedy block-selection strategies that guarantee more progress per iteration than the Gauss-Southwell rule; (ii) explore practical issues like how to implement the new rules when using "variable" blocks; (iii) explore the use of message-passing to compute matrix or Newton updates efficiently on huge blocks for problems with sparse dependencies between variables; and (iv) consider optimal active manifold identification, which leads to bounds on the "active-set complexity" of BCD methods and leads to superlinear convergence for certain problems with sparse solutions (and in some cases finite termination at an optimal solution). We support all of our findings with numerical results for the classic machine learning problems of least squares, logistic regression, multi-class logistic regression, label propagation, and L1-regularization.

For a data-generating process for random variables that can be described with a linear structural equation model, we consider a situation in which (i) a set of covariates satisfying the back-door criterion cannot be observed or (ii) such a set can be observed, but standard statistical estimation methods cannot be applied to estimate causal effects because of multicollinearity/high-dimensional data problems. We propose a novel two-stage penalized regression approach, the penalized covariate-mediator selection operator (PCM Selector), to estimate the causal effects in such scenarios. Unlike existing penalized regression analyses, when a set of intermediate variables is available, PCM Selector provides a consistent or less biased estimator of the causal effect. In addition, PCM Selector provides a variable selection procedure for intermediate variables to obtain better estimation accuracy of the causal effects than does the back-door criterion.

Embedding-based collaborative filtering, often coupled with nearest neighbor search, is widely deployed in large-scale recommender systems for personalized content selection. Modern systems leverage multiple implicit feedback signals (e.g., clicks, add to cart, purchases) to model user preferences comprehensively. However, prevailing approaches adopt a feedback-wise modeling paradigm, which (1) fails to capture the structured progression of user engagement entailed among different feedback and (2) embeds feedback-specific information into disjoint spaces, making representations incommensurable, increasing system complexity, and leading to suboptimal retrieval performance. A promising alternative is Ordinal Logistic Regression (OLR), which explicitly models discrete ordered relations. However, existing OLR-based recommendation models mainly focus on explicit feedback (e.g., movie ratings) and struggle with implicit, correlated feedback, where ordering is vague and non-linear. Moreover, standard OLR lacks flexibility in handling feedback-dependent covariates, resulting in suboptimal performance in real-world systems. To address these limitations, we propose Generalized Neural Ordinal Logistic Regression (GNOLR), which encodes multiple feature-feedback dependencies into a unified, structured embedding space and enforces feedback-specific dependency learning through a nested optimization framework. Thus, GNOLR enhances predictive accuracy, captures the progression of user engagement, and simplifies the retrieval process. We establish a theoretical comparison with existing paradigms, demonstrating how GNOLR avoids disjoint spaces while maintaining effectiveness. Extensive experiments on ten real-world datasets show that GNOLR significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods in efficiency and adaptability.

Machine learning is increasingly used to guide branch-and-cut (B&C) for mixed-integer linear programming by learning score-based policies for selecting branching variables and cutting planes. Many approaches train on local signals from lookahead heuristics such as strong branching, and linear programming (LP) bound improvement for cut selection. Training and evaluation of the learned models often focus on local score accuracy. We show that such local score-based methods can lead to search trees exponentially larger than optimal tree sizes, by identifying two sources of this gap. The first is that these widely used expert signals can be misaligned with overall tree size. LP bound improvement can select a root cut set that yields an exponentially larger strong branching tree than selecting cuts by a simple proxy score, and strong branching itself can be exponentially suboptimal (Dey et al., 2024). The second is that small discrepancies can be amplified by the branch-and-bound recursion. An arbitrarily small perturbation of the right-hand sides in a root cut set can change the minimum tree size from a single node to exponentially many. For branching, arbitrarily small score discrepancies, and differences only in tie-breaking, can produce trees of exponentially different sizes, and even a small number of decision differences along a trajectory can incur exponential growth. These results show that branch-and-cut policies trained and learned using local expert scores do not guarantee small trees, thus motivating the study of data-driven methods that produce policies better aligned with tree size rather than only accuracy on expert scores.

Selecting the best response from multiple small-model samples using a stronger scorer is a simple inference-time strategy, but fails when the small model has already committed to incorrect reasoning paths. PRM guided search avoids this by scoring candidate continuations during generation, but requires a reward model trained with step-level labels. We propose Chunk-Level Guided Generation, a training-free alternative that uses an off-the-shelf large language model as a process scorer. At each step, a small model samples k fixed-length candidate chunks, while the larger model scores the candidates using likelihoods without generating any text. The selected chunk is committed before the next step, steering generation before errors can propagate. We instantiate this framework with two selection rules: Likelihood-Guided Selection (LGS), which selects the chunk with the highest length-normalized large-model log-probability, and Contrastive-Guided Selection (CGS), which subtracts the small model's log-probability to favor chunks where the large model's preference diverges from the small model's. We show that scoring variable-length reasoning steps with large-model likelihoods is unreliable due to a systematic length bias that persists even after length normalization, and that fixed-length chunks avoid this confound. On GSM8K, MATH, Minerva Math, AMC23, and AIME24 with Qwen2.5-1.5B guided by Qwen2.5-32B and Llama-3.2-1B guided by Llama-3.1-70B, CGS outperforms majority voting by up to 28 pp and, under matched guidance budgets, matches or outperforms Qwen2.5-Math-PRM-72B guided search on most benchmarks without reward-model training. With Qwen2.5-7B guided by Qwen2.5-72B, CGS reaches 81.8% on MATH and 63.6% on Minerva Math at k=16, surpassing majority voting by 4--6 pp. Finally, Chunk-Level Guided Generation produces substantially shorter reasoning traces than PRM guided search.

We consider an extension to the classic position auctions in which sponsored creatives can be added within AI generated content rather than shown in predefined slots. New challenges arise from the natural requirement that sponsored creatives should smoothly fit into the context. With the help of advanced LLM technologies, it becomes viable to accurately estimate the benefits of adding each individual sponsored creatives into each potential positions within the AI generated content by properly taking the context into account. Therefore, we assume one click-through rate estimation for each position-creative pair, rather than one uniform estimation for each sponsored creative across all positions in classic settings. As a result, the underlying optimization becomes a general matching problem, thus the substitution effects should be treated more carefully compared to standard position auction settings, where the slots are independent with each other. In this work, we formalize a concrete mathematical model of the extended position auction problem and study the welfare-maximization and revenue-maximization mechanism design problem. Formally, we consider two different user behavior models and solve the mechanism design problems therein respectively. For the Multinomial Logit (MNL) model, which is order-insensitive, we can efficiently implement the optimal mechanisms. For the cascade model, which is order-sensitive, we provide approximately optimal solutions.

Traditional direct estimation methods are not efficient for domains of a survey population with small sample sizes. To estimate the domain proportions, we combine the direct estimators and the regression-synthetic estimators based on domain-level auxiliary information. For the case of small true proportions, we introduce the design-based linear combination that is a robust alternative to the empirical best linear unbiased predictor (EBLUP) based on the Fay--Herriot model. We also consider an adaptive procedure optimizing a sample-size-dependent composite estimator, which depends on a single parameter for all domains. We imitate the Lithuanian Labor Force Survey, where we estimate the proportions of the unemployed and employed in municipalities. We show where the considered design-based compositions and estimators of their mean square errors are competitive for EBLUP and its accuracy estimation.

Personalized treatment effect estimates are often of interest in high-stakes applications -- thus, before deploying a model estimating such effects in practice, one needs to be sure that the best candidate from the ever-growing machine learning toolbox for this task was chosen. Unfortunately, due to the absence of counterfactual information in practice, it is usually not possible to rely on standard validation metrics for doing so, leading to a well-known model selection dilemma in the treatment effect estimation literature. While some solutions have recently been investigated, systematic understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of different model selection criteria is still lacking. In this paper, instead of attempting to declare a global `winner', we therefore empirically investigate success- and failure modes of different selection criteria. We highlight that there is a complex interplay between selection strategies, candidate estimators and the data used for comparing them, and provide interesting insights into the relative (dis)advantages of different criteria alongside desiderata for the design of further illuminating empirical studies in this context.

In the context of reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF), the reward function is generally derived from maximum likelihood estimation of a random utility model based on pairwise comparisons made by humans. The problem of learning a reward function is one of preference aggregation that, we argue, largely falls within the scope of social choice theory. From this perspective, we can evaluate different aggregation methods via established axioms, examining whether these methods meet or fail well-known standards. We demonstrate that both the Bradley-Terry-Luce Model and its broad generalizations fail to meet basic axioms. In response, we develop novel rules for learning reward functions with strong axiomatic guarantees. A key innovation from the standpoint of social choice is that our problem has a linear structure, which greatly restricts the space of feasible rules and leads to a new paradigm that we call linear social choice.

Automated model selection is often proposed to users to choose which machine learning model (or method) to apply to a given regression task. In this paper, we show that combining different regression models can yield better results than selecting a single ('best') regression model, and outline an efficient method that obtains optimally weighted convex linear combination from a heterogeneous set of regression models. More specifically, in this paper, a heuristic weight optimization, used in a preceding conference paper, is replaced by an exact optimization algorithm using convex quadratic programming. We prove convexity of the quadratic programming formulation for the straightforward formulation and for a formulation with weighted data points. The novel weight optimization is not only (more) exact but also more efficient. The methods we develop in this paper are implemented and made available via github-open source. They can be executed on commonly available hardware and offer a transparent and easy to interpret interface. The results indicate that the approach outperforms model selection methods on a range of data sets, including data sets with mixed variable type from drug discovery applications.

Label smoothing (LS) is a popular regularisation method for training deep neural network classifiers due to its effectiveness in improving test accuracy and its simplicity in implementation. "Hard" one-hot labels are "smoothed" by uniformly distributing probability mass to other classes, reducing overfitting. In this work, we reveal that LS negatively affects selective classification (SC) - where the aim is to reject misclassifications using a model's predictive uncertainty. We first demonstrate empirically across a range of tasks and architectures that LS leads to a consistent degradation in SC. We then explain this by analysing logit-level gradients, showing that LS exacerbates overconfidence and underconfidence by regularising the max logit more when the probability of error is low, and less when the probability of error is high. This elucidates previously reported experimental results where strong classifiers underperform in SC. We then demonstrate the empirical effectiveness of logit normalisation for recovering lost SC performance caused by LS. Furthermore, based on our gradient analysis, we explain why such normalisation is effective. We will release our code shortly.

This paper considers the problem of variable selection allowing for parameter instability. It distinguishes between signal and pseudo-signal variables that are correlated with the target variable, and noise variables that are not, and investigate the asymptotic properties of the One Covariate at a Time Multiple Testing (OCMT) method proposed by Chudik et al. (2018) under parameter insatiability. It is established that OCMT continues to asymptotically select an approximating model that includes all the signals and none of the noise variables. Properties of post selection regressions are also investigated, and in-sample fit of the selected regression is shown to have the oracle property. The theoretical results support the use of unweighted observations at the selection stage of OCMT, whilst applying down-weighting of observations only at the forecasting stage. Monte Carlo and empirical applications show that OCMT without down-weighting at the selection stage yields smaller mean squared forecast errors compared to Lasso, Adaptive Lasso, and boosting.

We focus on the classification problem with a separable dataset, one of the most important and classical problems from machine learning. The standard approach to this task is logistic regression with gradient descent (LR+GD). Recent studies have observed that LR+GD can find a solution with arbitrarily large step sizes, defying conventional optimization theory. Our work investigates this phenomenon and makes three interconnected key observations about LR+GD with large step sizes. First, we find a remarkably simple explanation of why LR+GD with large step sizes solves the classification problem: LR+GD reduces to a batch version of the celebrated perceptron algorithm when the step size gamma to infty. Second, we observe that larger step sizes lead LR+GD to higher logistic losses when it tends to the perceptron algorithm, but larger step sizes also lead to faster convergence to a solution for the classification problem, meaning that logistic loss is an unreliable metric of the proximity to a solution. Surprisingly, high loss values can actually indicate faster convergence. Third, since the convergence rate in terms of loss function values of LR+GD is unreliable, we examine the iteration complexity required by LR+GD with large step sizes to solve the classification problem and prove that this complexity is suboptimal. To address this, we propose a new method, Normalized LR+GD - based on the connection between LR+GD and the perceptron algorithm - with much better theoretical guarantees.

Large language models (LLMs) often exhibit systematic preferences for certain answer choices when responding to multiple-choice questions-a behavior known as selection bias. This bias reduces the accuracy and reliability of LLM outputs, limiting their usefulness in decision-critical applications. While prior work has focused on adjusting model inputs or outputs to mitigate this issue, our work takes a fundamentally different approach by identifying and removing the internal sources of bias. We introduce two methods: Bias Node Pruning (BNP), which prunes parameters that contribute to selection bias, and Auxiliary Option Injection (AOI), which introduces an additional answer choice to reduce bias in both white-box and black-box settings. To address the shortcomings of existing evaluation metrics, we propose Choice Kullback-Leibler Divergence (CKLD), a new metric that captures distributional imbalances in model predictions. Experiments on three LLMs across multiple datasets demonstrate that our methods consistently improve answer accuracy while reducing selection bias, providing a robust solution for both open- and closed-source models.

Web-based applications such as chatbots, search engines and news recommendations continue to grow in scale and complexity with the recent surge in the adoption of LLMs. Online model selection has thus garnered increasing attention due to the need to choose the best model among a diverse set while balancing task reward and exploration cost. Organizations faces decisions like whether to employ a costly API-based LLM or a locally finetuned small LLM, weighing cost against performance. Traditional selection methods often evaluate every candidate model before choosing one, which are becoming impractical given the rising costs of training and finetuning LLMs. Moreover, it is undesirable to allocate excessive resources towards exploring poor-performing models. While some recent works leverage online bandit algorithm to manage such exploration-exploitation trade-off in model selection, they tend to overlook the increasing-then-converging trend in model performances as the model is iteratively finetuned, leading to less accurate predictions and suboptimal model selections. In this paper, we propose a time-increasing bandit algorithm TI-UCB, which effectively predicts the increase of model performances due to finetuning and efficiently balances exploration and exploitation in model selection. To further capture the converging points of models, we develop a change detection mechanism by comparing consecutive increase predictions. We theoretically prove that our algorithm achieves a logarithmic regret upper bound in a typical increasing bandit setting, which implies a fast convergence rate. The advantage of our method is also empirically validated through extensive experiments on classification model selection and online selection of LLMs. Our results highlight the importance of utilizing increasing-then-converging pattern for more efficient and economic model selection in the deployment of LLMs.

We consider minimizing functions for which it is expensive to compute the (possibly stochastic) gradient. Such functions are prevalent in reinforcement learning, imitation learning and adversarial training. Our target optimization framework uses the (expensive) gradient computation to construct surrogate functions in a target space (e.g. the logits output by a linear model for classification) that can be minimized efficiently. This allows for multiple parameter updates to the model, amortizing the cost of gradient computation. In the full-batch setting, we prove that our surrogate is a global upper-bound on the loss, and can be (locally) minimized using a black-box optimization algorithm. We prove that the resulting majorization-minimization algorithm ensures convergence to a stationary point of the loss. Next, we instantiate our framework in the stochastic setting and propose the SSO algorithm, which can be viewed as projected stochastic gradient descent in the target space. This connection enables us to prove theoretical guarantees for SSO when minimizing convex functions. Our framework allows the use of standard stochastic optimization algorithms to construct surrogates which can be minimized by any deterministic optimization method. To evaluate our framework, we consider a suite of supervised learning and imitation learning problems. Our experiments indicate the benefits of target optimization and the effectiveness of SSO.

We study networked binary classification on a directed acyclic graph (DAG) where each agent observes only a subset of the feature columns of a shared dataset. Agents act sequentially along the DAG: each receives prediction columns from its parents (if any), augments its local features with these columns, fits a logistic predictor by minimizing binary cross-entropy (BCE), and forwards its prediction column to its outgoing neighbors. We ask whether this sequential distributed training procedure achieves information aggregation, meaning that some agent attains small excess loss compared to the best logistic predictor trained with access to all feature columns. This question was studied for linear regression under squared loss by Kearns, Roth, and Ryu (SODA 2026). Extending their guarantees to classification is nontrivial because their analysis relies on quadratic structure that does not directly transfer to BCE with a logistic link. We analyze the resulting sequential logit-passing protocol and prove: (i) an excess loss upper bound of O(M/D) on depth-D paths under the condition that every M contiguous subsequence of M agents collectively observe all features, and (ii) a close lower bound showing instances with excess loss of at least Ω(k/D) where k is the dimension of the feature space. Together, these results identify network depth as a fundamental bottleneck for information aggregation in networked logistic regression.

We consider a class of assortment optimization problems in an offline data-driven setting. A firm does not know the underlying customer choice model but has access to an offline dataset consisting of the historically offered assortment set, customer choice, and revenue. The objective is to use the offline dataset to find an optimal assortment. Due to the combinatorial nature of assortment optimization, the problem of insufficient data coverage is likely to occur in the offline dataset. Therefore, designing a provably efficient offline learning algorithm becomes a significant challenge. To this end, we propose an algorithm referred to as Pessimistic ASsortment opTimizAtion (PASTA for short) designed based on the principle of pessimism, that can correctly identify the optimal assortment by only requiring the offline data to cover the optimal assortment under general settings. In particular, we establish a regret bound for the offline assortment optimization problem under the celebrated multinomial logit model. We also propose an efficient computational procedure to solve our pessimistic assortment optimization problem. Numerical studies demonstrate the superiority of the proposed method over the existing baseline method.

Most of the existing Out-Of-Distribution (OOD) detection algorithms depend on single input source: the feature, the logit, or the softmax probability. However, the immense diversity of the OOD examples makes such methods fragile. There are OOD samples that are easy to identify in the feature space while hard to distinguish in the logit space and vice versa. Motivated by this observation, we propose a novel OOD scoring method named Virtual-logit Matching (ViM), which combines the class-agnostic score from feature space and the In-Distribution (ID) class-dependent logits. Specifically, an additional logit representing the virtual OOD class is generated from the residual of the feature against the principal space, and then matched with the original logits by a constant scaling. The probability of this virtual logit after softmax is the indicator of OOD-ness. To facilitate the evaluation of large-scale OOD detection in academia, we create a new OOD dataset for ImageNet-1K, which is human-annotated and is 8.8x the size of existing datasets. We conducted extensive experiments, including CNNs and vision transformers, to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed ViM score. In particular, using the BiT-S model, our method gets an average AUROC 90.91% on four difficult OOD benchmarks, which is 4% ahead of the best baseline. Code and dataset are available at https://github.com/haoqiwang/vim.

We consider the problem of estimating how well a model class is capable of fitting a distribution of labeled data. We show that it is often possible to accurately estimate this "learnability" even when given an amount of data that is too small to reliably learn any accurate model. Our first result applies to the setting where the data is drawn from a d-dimensional distribution with isotropic covariance (or known covariance), and the label of each datapoint is an arbitrary noisy function of the datapoint. In this setting, we show that with O(d) samples, one can accurately estimate the fraction of the variance of the label that can be explained via the best linear function of the data. In contrast to this sublinear sample size, finding an approximation of the best-fit linear function requires on the order of d samples. Our sublinear sample results and approach also extend to the non-isotropic setting, where the data distribution has an (unknown) arbitrary covariance matrix: we show that, if the label y of point x is a linear function with independent noise, y = langle x , βrangle + noise with |β| bounded, the variance of the noise can be estimated to error ε with O(d^{1-1/1/ε}) if the covariance matrix has bounded condition number, or O(d^{1-sqrtε}) if there are no bounds on the condition number. We also establish that these sample complexities are optimal, to constant factors. Finally, we extend these techniques to the setting of binary classification, where we obtain analogous sample complexities for the problem of estimating the prediction error of the best linear classifier, in a natural model of binary labeled data. We demonstrate the practical viability of our approaches on several real and synthetic datasets.

We provide a theoretical framework for Reinforcement Learning with Human Feedback (RLHF). Our analysis shows that when the true reward function is linear, the widely used maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) converges under both the Bradley-Terry-Luce (BTL) model and the Plackett-Luce (PL) model. However, we show that when training a policy based on the learned reward model, MLE fails while a pessimistic MLE provides policies with improved performance under certain coverage assumptions. Additionally, we demonstrate that under the PL model, the true MLE and an alternative MLE that splits the K-wise comparison into pairwise comparisons both converge. Moreover, the true MLE is asymptotically more efficient. Our results validate the empirical success of existing RLHF algorithms in InstructGPT and provide new insights for algorithm design. Furthermore, our results unify the problem of RLHF and max-entropy Inverse Reinforcement Learning (IRL), and provide the first sample complexity bound for max-entropy IRL.

We present the Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD), a new reading comprehension dataset consisting of 100,000+ questions posed by crowdworkers on a set of Wikipedia articles, where the answer to each question is a segment of text from the corresponding reading passage. We analyze the dataset to understand the types of reasoning required to answer the questions, leaning heavily on dependency and constituency trees. We build a strong logistic regression model, which achieves an F1 score of 51.0%, a significant improvement over a simple baseline (20%). However, human performance (86.8%) is much higher, indicating that the dataset presents a good challenge problem for future research. The dataset is freely available at https://stanford-qa.com

Prediction markets are used in real life to predict outcomes of interest such as presidential elections. This paper presents a mathematical theory of artificial prediction markets for supervised learning of conditional probability estimators. The artificial prediction market is a novel method for fusing the prediction information of features or trained classifiers, where the fusion result is the contract price on the possible outcomes. The market can be trained online by updating the participants' budgets using training examples. Inspired by the real prediction markets, the equations that govern the market are derived from simple and reasonable assumptions. Efficient numerical algorithms are presented for solving these equations. The obtained artificial prediction market is shown to be a maximum likelihood estimator. It generalizes linear aggregation, existent in boosting and random forest, as well as logistic regression and some kernel methods. Furthermore, the market mechanism allows the aggregation of specialized classifiers that participate only on specific instances. Experimental comparisons show that the artificial prediction markets often outperform random forest and implicit online learning on synthetic data and real UCI datasets. Moreover, an extensive evaluation for pelvic and abdominal lymph node detection in CT data shows that the prediction market improves adaboost's detection rate from 79.6% to 81.2% at 3 false positives/volume.

We study the data selection problem, whose aim is to select a small representative subset of data that can be used to efficiently train a machine learning model. We present a new data selection approach based on k-means clustering and sensitivity sampling. Assuming access to an embedding representation of the data with respect to which the model loss is H\"older continuous, our approach provably allows selecting a set of ``typical'' k + 1/varepsilon^2 elements whose average loss corresponds to the average loss of the whole dataset, up to a multiplicative (1pmvarepsilon) factor and an additive varepsilon lambda Phi_k, where Phi_k represents the k-means cost for the input embeddings and lambda is the H\"older constant. We furthermore demonstrate the performance and scalability of our approach on fine-tuning foundation models and show that it outperforms state-of-the-art methods. We also show how it can be applied on linear regression, leading to a new sampling strategy that surprisingly matches the performances of leverage score sampling, while being conceptually simpler and more scalable.

For a parametric model of distributions, the closest distribution in the model to the true distribution located outside the model is considered. Measuring the closeness between two distributions with the Kullback-Leibler (K-L) divergence, the closest distribution is called the "information projection." The estimation risk of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) is defined as the expectation of K-L divergence between the information projection and the predictive distribution with plugged-in MLE. Here, the asymptotic expansion of the risk is derived up to n^{-2}-order, and the sufficient condition on the risk for the Bayes error rate between the true distribution and the information projection to be lower than a specified value is investigated. Combining these results, the "p-n criterion" is proposed, which determines whether the MLE is sufficiently close to the information projection for the given model and sample. In particular, the criterion for an exponential family model is relatively simple and can be used for a complex model with no explicit form of normalizing constant. This criterion can constitute a solution to the sample size or model acceptance problem. Use of the p-n criteria is demonstrated for two practical datasets. The relationship between the results and information criteria is also studied.

Current language models demonstrate remarkable proficiency in text generation. However, for many applications it is desirable to control attributes, such as sentiment, or toxicity, of the generated language -- ideally tailored towards each specific use case and target audience. For auto-regressive language models, existing guidance methods are prone to decoding errors that cascade during generation and degrade performance. In contrast, text diffusion models can easily be guided with, for example, a simple linear sentiment classifier -- however they do suffer from significantly higher perplexity than auto-regressive alternatives. In this paper we use a guided diffusion model to produce a latent proposal that steers an auto-regressive language model to generate text with desired properties. Our model inherits the unmatched fluency of the auto-regressive approach and the plug-and-play flexibility of diffusion. We show that it outperforms previous plug-and-play guidance methods across a wide range of benchmark data sets. Further, controlling a new attribute in our framework is reduced to training a single logistic regression classifier.

Feature selection is the problem of selecting a subset of features for a machine learning model that maximizes model quality subject to a budget constraint. For neural networks, prior methods, including those based on ell_1 regularization, attention, and other techniques, typically select the entire feature subset in one evaluation round, ignoring the residual value of features during selection, i.e., the marginal contribution of a feature given that other features have already been selected. We propose a feature selection algorithm called Sequential Attention that achieves state-of-the-art empirical results for neural networks. This algorithm is based on an efficient one-pass implementation of greedy forward selection and uses attention weights at each step as a proxy for feature importance. We give theoretical insights into our algorithm for linear regression by showing that an adaptation to this setting is equivalent to the classical Orthogonal Matching Pursuit (OMP) algorithm, and thus inherits all of its provable guarantees. Our theoretical and empirical analyses offer new explanations towards the effectiveness of attention and its connections to overparameterization, which may be of independent interest.

Human evaluation is the gold-standard for evaluating text generation models. It is also expensive, and to fit budgetary constraints, a random subset of the test data is often chosen in practice. The randomly selected data may not accurately represent test performance, making this approach economically inefficient for model comparison. Thus, in this work, we develop a suite of selectors to get the most informative datapoints for human evaluation while taking the evaluation costs into account. We show that selectors based on variance in automated metric scores, diversity in model outputs, or Item Response Theory outperform random selection. We further develop an approach to distill these selectors to the scenario where the model outputs are not yet available. In particular, we introduce source-based estimators, which predict item usefulness for human evaluation just based on the source texts. We demonstrate the efficacy of our selectors in two common NLG tasks, machine translation and summarization, and show that up to only ~50% of the test data is needed to produce the same evaluation result as the entire data. Our implementations are published in the subset2evaluate package.

Knowledge distillation involves transferring soft labels from a teacher to a student using a shared temperature-based softmax function. However, the assumption of a shared temperature between teacher and student implies a mandatory exact match between their logits in terms of logit range and variance. This side-effect limits the performance of student, considering the capacity discrepancy between them and the finding that the innate logit relations of teacher are sufficient for student to learn. To address this issue, we propose setting the temperature as the weighted standard deviation of logit and performing a plug-and-play Z-score pre-process of logit standardization before applying softmax and Kullback-Leibler divergence. Our pre-process enables student to focus on essential logit relations from teacher rather than requiring a magnitude match, and can improve the performance of existing logit-based distillation methods. We also show a typical case where the conventional setting of sharing temperature between teacher and student cannot reliably yield the authentic distillation evaluation; nonetheless, this challenge is successfully alleviated by our Z-score. We extensively evaluate our method for various student and teacher models on CIFAR-100 and ImageNet, showing its significant superiority. The vanilla knowledge distillation powered by our pre-process can achieve favorable performance against state-of-the-art methods, and other distillation variants can obtain considerable gain with the assistance of our pre-process.

Out-of-distribution (OOD) detection is critical for ensuring the reliability of deep learning models in open-world applications. While post-hoc methods are favored for their efficiency and ease of deployment, existing approaches often underexploit the rich information embedded in the model's logits space. In this paper, we propose LogitGap, a novel post-hoc OOD detection method that explicitly exploits the relationship between the maximum logit and the remaining logits to enhance the separability between in-distribution (ID) and OOD samples. To further improve its effectiveness, we refine LogitGap by focusing on a more compact and informative subset of the logit space. Specifically, we introduce a training-free strategy that automatically identifies the most informative logits for scoring. We provide both theoretical analysis and empirical evidence to validate the effectiveness of our approach. Extensive experiments on both vision-language and vision-only models demonstrate that LogitGap consistently achieves state-of-the-art performance across diverse OOD detection scenarios and benchmarks. Code is available at https://github.com/GIT-LJc/LogitGap.

Many applications involve estimating the mean of multiple binomial outcomes as a common problem -- assessing intergenerational mobility of census tracts, estimating prevalence of infectious diseases across countries, and measuring click-through rates for different demographic groups. The most standard approach is to report the plain average of each outcome. Despite simplicity, the estimates are noisy when the sample sizes or mean parameters are small. In contrast, the Empirical Bayes (EB) methods are able to boost the average accuracy by borrowing information across tasks. Nevertheless, the EB methods require a Bayesian model where the parameters are sampled from a prior distribution which, unlike the commonly-studied Gaussian case, is unidentified due to discreteness of binomial measurements. Even if the prior distribution is known, the computation is difficult when the sample sizes are heterogeneous as there is no simple joint conjugate prior for the sample size and mean parameter. In this paper, we consider the compound decision framework which treats the sample size and mean parameters as fixed quantities. We develop an approximate Stein's Unbiased Risk Estimator (SURE) for the average mean squared error given any class of estimators. For a class of machine learning-assisted linear shrinkage estimators, we establish asymptotic optimality, regret bounds, and valid inference. Unlike existing work, we work with the binomials directly without resorting to Gaussian approximations. This allows us to work with small sample sizes and/or mean parameters in both one-sample and two-sample settings. We demonstrate our approach using three datasets on firm discrimination, education outcomes, and innovation rates.

Mehta and Panigrahi (2012) proposed Online Matching with Stochastic Rewards, which generalizes the Online Bipartite Matching problem of Karp, Vazirani, and Vazirani (1990) by associating the edges with success probabilities. This new feature captures the pay-per-click model in online advertising. Recently, Huang and Zhang (2020) studied this problem under the online primal dual framework using the Configuration Linear Program (LP), and got the best known competitive ratios of the Stochastic Balance algorithm. Their work suggests that the more expressive Configuration LP is more suitable for this problem than the Matching LP. This paper advances the theory of Configuration LP in two directions. Our technical contribution includes a characterization of the joint matching outcome of an offline vertex and all its neighbors. This characterization may be of independent interest, and is aligned with the spirit of Configuration LP. By contrast, previous analyses of Ranking generally focus on only one neighbor. Second, we designed a Stochastic Configuration LP that captures a stochastic benchmark proposed by Goyal and Udwani (2020), who used a Path-based LP. The Stochastic Configuration LP is smaller and simpler than the Path-based LP. Moreover, using the new LP we improved the competitive ratio of Stochastic Balance from 0.596 to 0.611 when the success probabilities are infinitesimal, and to 0.613 when the success probabilities are further equal.

Most models in machine learning contain at least one hyperparameter to control for model complexity. Choosing an appropriate set of hyperparameters is both crucial in terms of model accuracy and computationally challenging. In this work we propose an algorithm for the optimization of continuous hyperparameters using inexact gradient information. An advantage of this method is that hyperparameters can be updated before model parameters have fully converged. We also give sufficient conditions for the global convergence of this method, based on regularity conditions of the involved functions and summability of errors. Finally, we validate the empirical performance of this method on the estimation of regularization constants of L2-regularized logistic regression and kernel Ridge regression. Empirical benchmarks indicate that our approach is highly competitive with respect to state of the art methods.

This paper provides a non-asymptotic analysis of linear stochastic approximation (LSA) algorithms with fixed stepsize. This family of methods arises in many machine learning tasks and is used to obtain approximate solutions of a linear system Atheta = b for which A and b can only be accessed through random estimates {({bf A}_n, {bf b}_n): n in N^*}. Our analysis is based on new results regarding moments and high probability bounds for products of matrices which are shown to be tight. We derive high probability bounds on the performance of LSA under weaker conditions on the sequence {({bf A}_n, {bf b}_n): n in N^*} than previous works. However, in contrast, we establish polynomial concentration bounds with order depending on the stepsize. We show that our conclusions cannot be improved without additional assumptions on the sequence of random matrices {{bf A}_n: n in N^*}, and in particular that no Gaussian or exponential high probability bounds can hold. Finally, we pay a particular attention to establishing bounds with sharp order with respect to the number of iterations and the stepsize and whose leading terms contain the covariance matrices appearing in the central limit theorems.

Machine learning models are increasingly used to automate decisions that affect humans - deciding who should receive a loan, a job interview, or a social service. In such applications, a person should have the ability to change the decision of a model. When a person is denied a loan by a credit score, for example, they should be able to alter its input variables in a way that guarantees approval. Otherwise, they will be denied the loan as long as the model is deployed. More importantly, they will lack the ability to influence a decision that affects their livelihood. In this paper, we frame these issues in terms of recourse, which we define as the ability of a person to change the decision of a model by altering actionable input variables (e.g., income vs. age or marital status). We present integer programming tools to ensure recourse in linear classification problems without interfering in model development. We demonstrate how our tools can inform stakeholders through experiments on credit scoring problems. Our results show that recourse can be significantly affected by standard practices in model development, and motivate the need to evaluate recourse in practice.

We propose a deep learning framework for modeling complex high-dimensional densities called Non-linear Independent Component Estimation (NICE). It is based on the idea that a good representation is one in which the data has a distribution that is easy to model. For this purpose, a non-linear deterministic transformation of the data is learned that maps it to a latent space so as to make the transformed data conform to a factorized distribution, i.e., resulting in independent latent variables. We parametrize this transformation so that computing the Jacobian determinant and inverse transform is trivial, yet we maintain the ability to learn complex non-linear transformations, via a composition of simple building blocks, each based on a deep neural network. The training criterion is simply the exact log-likelihood, which is tractable. Unbiased ancestral sampling is also easy. We show that this approach yields good generative models on four image datasets and can be used for inpainting.

Motivated by the need to efficiently identify multiple candidates in high trial-and-error cost tasks such as drug discovery, we propose a near-optimal algorithm to identify all ε-best arms (i.e., those at most ε worse than the optimum). Specifically, we introduce LinFACT, an algorithm designed to optimize the identification of all ε-best arms in linear bandits. We establish a novel information-theoretic lower bound on the sample complexity of this problem and demonstrate that LinFACT achieves instance optimality by matching this lower bound up to a logarithmic factor. A key ingredient of our proof is to integrate the lower bound directly into the scaling process for upper bound derivation, determining the termination round and thus the sample complexity. We also extend our analysis to settings with model misspecification and generalized linear models. Numerical experiments, including synthetic and real drug discovery data, demonstrate that LinFACT identifies more promising candidates with reduced sample complexity, offering significant computational efficiency and accelerating early-stage exploratory experiments.

We consider multi-draft speculative sampling, where the proposal sequences are sampled independently from different draft models. At each step, a token-level draft selection scheme takes a list of valid tokens as input and produces an output token whose distribution matches that of the target model. Previous works have demonstrated that the optimal scheme (which maximizes the probability of accepting one of the input tokens) can be cast as a solution to a linear program. In this work we show that the optimal scheme can be decomposed into a two-step solution: in the first step an importance sampling (IS) type scheme is used to select one intermediate token; in the second step (single-draft) speculative sampling is applied to generate the output token. For the case of two identical draft models we further 1) establish a necessary and sufficient condition on the distributions of the target and draft models for the acceptance probability to equal one and 2) provide an explicit expression for the optimal acceptance probability. Our theoretical analysis also motives a new class of token-level selection scheme based on weighted importance sampling. Our experimental results demonstrate consistent improvements in the achievable block efficiency and token rates over baseline schemes in a number of scenarios.

Despite significant advancements in large language models (LLMs) that enhance robot agents' understanding and execution of natural language (NL) commands, ensuring the agents adhere to user-specified constraints remains challenging, particularly for complex commands and long-horizon tasks. To address this challenge, we present three key insights, equivalence voting, constrained decoding, and domain-specific fine-tuning, which significantly enhance LLM planners' capability in handling complex tasks. Equivalence voting ensures consistency by generating and sampling multiple Linear Temporal Logic (LTL) formulas from NL commands, grouping equivalent LTL formulas, and selecting the majority group of formulas as the final LTL formula. Constrained decoding then uses the generated LTL formula to enforce the autoregressive inference of plans, ensuring the generated plans conform to the LTL. Domain-specific fine-tuning customizes LLMs to produce safe and efficient plans within specific task domains. Our approach, Safe Efficient LLM Planner (SELP), combines these insights to create LLM planners to generate plans adhering to user commands with high confidence. We demonstrate the effectiveness and generalizability of SELP across different robot agents and tasks, including drone navigation and robot manipulation. For drone navigation tasks, SELP outperforms state-of-the-art planners by 10.8% in safety rate (i.e., finishing tasks conforming to NL commands) and by 19.8% in plan efficiency. For robot manipulation tasks, SELP achieves 20.4% improvement in safety rate. Our datasets for evaluating NL-to-LTL and robot task planning will be released in github.com/lt-asset/selp.

Machine learning models trained on Earth observation data, such as satellite imagery, have demonstrated significant promise in predicting household-level wealth indices, enabling the creation of high-resolution wealth maps that can be leveraged across multiple causal trials. However, because standard training objectives prioritize overall predictive accuracy, these predictions inherently suffer from shrinkage toward the mean, leading to attenuated estimates of causal treatment effects and limiting their utility in policy. Existing debiasing methods, such as Prediction-Powered Inference, can handle this attenuation bias but require additional fresh ground-truth data at the downstream stage of causal inference, which restricts their applicability in data-scarce environments. Here, we introduce and evaluate two correction methods -- linear calibration correction and Tweedie's correction -- that substantially reduce prediction bias without relying on newly collected labeled data. Linear calibration corrects bias through a straightforward linear transformation derived from held-out calibration data, whereas Tweedie's correction leverages empirical Bayes principles to directly address shrinkage-induced biases by exploiting score functions derived from the model's learning patterns. Through analytical exercises and experiments using Demographic and Health Survey data, we demonstrate that the proposed methods meet or outperform existing approaches that either require (a) adjustments to training pipelines or (b) additional labeled data. These approaches may represent a promising avenue for improving the reliability of causal inference when direct outcome measures are limited or unavailable, enabling a "one map, many trials" paradigm where a single upstream data creation team produces predictions usable by many downstream teams across diverse ML pipelines.

Should prediction models always deliver a prediction? In the pursuit of maximum predictive performance, critical considerations of reliability and fairness are often overshadowed, particularly when it comes to the role of uncertainty. Selective regression, also known as the "reject option," allows models to abstain from predictions in cases of considerable uncertainty. Initially proposed seven decades ago, approaches to selective regression have mostly focused on distribution-based proxies for measuring uncertainty, particularly conditional variance. However, this focus neglects the significant influence of model-specific biases on a model's performance. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to selective regression by leveraging conformal prediction, which provides grounded confidence measures for individual predictions based on model-specific biases. In addition, we propose a standardized evaluation framework to allow proper comparison of selective regression approaches. Via an extensive experimental approach, we demonstrate how our proposed approach, conformalized selective regression, demonstrates an advantage over multiple state-of-the-art baselines.

Linear bandits have long been a central topic in online learning, with applications ranging from recommendation systems to adaptive clinical trials. Their general learnability has been established when the objective is to minimise the inner product between a cost parameter and the decision variable. While this is highly general, this reliance on an inner product structure belies the name of linear bandits, and fails to account for problems such as Optimal Transport. Using the Kantorovich formulation of Optimal Transport as an example, we show that an inner product structure is not necessary to achieve efficient learning in linear bandits. We propose a refinement of the classical OFUL algorithm that operates by embedding the action set into a Hilbertian subspace, where confidence sets can be built via least-squares estimation. Actions are then constrained to this subspace by penalising optimism. The analysis is completed by leveraging convergence results from penalised (entropic) transport to the Kantorovich problem. Up to this approximation term, the resulting algorithm achieves the same trajectorial regret upper bounds as the OFUL algorithm, which we turn into worst-case regret using functional regression techniques. Its regret interpolates between mathcal O(T) and {mathcal O}(T), depending on the regularity of the cost function, and recovers the parametric rate mathcal O(dT) in finite-dimensional settings.

The correct use of model evaluation, model selection, and algorithm selection techniques is vital in academic machine learning research as well as in many industrial settings. This article reviews different techniques that can be used for each of these three subtasks and discusses the main advantages and disadvantages of each technique with references to theoretical and empirical studies. Further, recommendations are given to encourage best yet feasible practices in research and applications of machine learning. Common methods such as the holdout method for model evaluation and selection are covered, which are not recommended when working with small datasets. Different flavors of the bootstrap technique are introduced for estimating the uncertainty of performance estimates, as an alternative to confidence intervals via normal approximation if bootstrapping is computationally feasible. Common cross-validation techniques such as leave-one-out cross-validation and k-fold cross-validation are reviewed, the bias-variance trade-off for choosing k is discussed, and practical tips for the optimal choice of k are given based on empirical evidence. Different statistical tests for algorithm comparisons are presented, and strategies for dealing with multiple comparisons such as omnibus tests and multiple-comparison corrections are discussed. Finally, alternative methods for algorithm selection, such as the combined F-test 5x2 cross-validation and nested cross-validation, are recommended for comparing machine learning algorithms when datasets are small.

Adapting large language models (LLMs) to low-resource languages (LRLs) is constrained by the scarcity of task data and computational resources. Although Proxy Tuning offers a logit-level strategy for introducing scaling effects, it often fails in LRL settings because the large model's weak LRL competence might overwhelm the knowledge of specialized smaller models. We thus propose TriMix, a test-time logit fusion framework that dynamically balances capabilities from three different sources: LRL competence from a continually pretrained small model, task competence from high-resource language instruction tuning, and the scaling benefits of large models. It is data- and compute-efficient, requiring no LRL task annotations, and only continual pretraining on a small model. Experiments across four model families and eight LRLs show that TriMix consistently outperforms single-model baselines and Proxy Tuning. Our analysis reveals that prioritizing the small LRL-specialized model's logits is crucial for success, challenging the prevalent large-model-dominant assumption.

Score- and flow-matching models often rely on preference-based reinforcement learning for two purposes: aligning with subjective preferences and, surprisingly, recovering properties such as visual realism and coherent object structure that matching-based training is intended to learn from the data itself. We argue that this reflects a structural mismatch. Matching losses measure ell_2 regression error on the velocity or score field under training-time marginals, a proxy poorly aligned with the visual and semantic properties that determine sample quality at inference. Given a reward aligned with these properties, RL sidesteps the mismatch by evaluating the model on its own samples and following the reward landscape directly. The challenge is to obtain such a reward without relying on human preferences, which are expensive and conflate data realism with annotator inclinations. We propose Discriminator-Guided RL (DRL). DRL trains a discriminator to separate data from base-model samples in a pretrained representation space and uses its logit as the reward in KL-regularized RL. The pretrained space restricts the discriminator to perceptually meaningful directions, and the logit estimates the log-likelihood ratio between data and model, which is the optimal reward for targeting the data distribution. Across SiT, JiT, REPA, and RAE, DRL reduces guidance-free FID (e.g., 9.38 to 2.62 on SiT) and semantic-space FD (e.g., 88.2 to 19.3 on DINOv3 for SiT), with consistent gains across all backbones, and improves human-preference rewards without training on them. It also yields a better Pareto frontier between preference reward and image fidelity under subsequent preference-based post-training, increasing alignment while reducing low-level artifacts such as oversaturation and excessive brightness.

This paper proposes a simple method for controllable text generation based on weighting logits with a free-form classifier, namely CAIF sampling. Using an arbitrary text classifier, we adjust a small part of a language model's logits and guide text generation towards or away from classifier prediction. We experimented with toxicity avoidance and sentiment control tasks and showed that the proposed method significantly outperforms recent PPLM, GeDi, and DExperts on PPL and task accuracy metrics based on the external classifier of generated texts. In addition, compared to other approaches, it is easier to implement and tune and has significantly fewer restrictions and requirements.

We consider the problem of subset selection where one is given multiple rankings of items and the goal is to select the highest ``quality'' subset. Score functions from the multiwinner voting literature have been used to aggregate rankings into quality scores for subsets. We study this setting of subset selection problems when, in addition, rankings may contain systemic or unconscious biases toward a group of items. For a general model of input rankings and biases, we show that requiring the selected subset to satisfy group fairness constraints can improve the quality of the selection with respect to unbiased rankings. Importantly, we show that for fairness constraints to be effective, different multiwinner score functions may require a drastically different number of rankings: While for some functions, fairness constraints need an exponential number of rankings to recover a close-to-optimal solution, for others, this dependency is only polynomial. This result relies on a novel notion of ``smoothness'' of submodular functions in this setting that quantifies how well a function can ``correctly'' assess the quality of items in the presence of bias. The results in this paper can be used to guide the choice of multiwinner score functions for the subset selection setting considered here; we additionally provide a tool to empirically enable this.

Capturing aleatoric uncertainty is a critical part of many machine learning systems. In deep learning, a common approach to this end is to train a neural network to estimate the parameters of a heteroscedastic Gaussian distribution by maximizing the logarithm of the likelihood function under the observed data. In this work, we examine this approach and identify potential hazards associated with the use of log-likelihood in conjunction with gradient-based optimizers. First, we present a synthetic example illustrating how this approach can lead to very poor but stable parameter estimates. Second, we identify the culprit to be the log-likelihood loss, along with certain conditions that exacerbate the issue. Third, we present an alternative formulation, termed β-NLL, in which each data point's contribution to the loss is weighted by the β-exponentiated variance estimate. We show that using an appropriate β largely mitigates the issue in our illustrative example. Fourth, we evaluate this approach on a range of domains and tasks and show that it achieves considerable improvements and performs more robustly concerning hyperparameters, both in predictive RMSE and log-likelihood criteria.

Cricket, "a Gentleman's Game", is a prominent sport rising worldwide. Due to the rising competitiveness of the sport, players and team management have become more professional with their approach. Prior studies predicted individual performance or chose the best team but did not highlight the batter's potential. On the other hand, our research aims to evaluate a player's impact while considering his control in various circumstances. This paper seeks to understand the conundrum behind this impactful performance by determining how much control a player has over the circumstances and generating the "Effective Runs",a new measure we propose. We first gathered the fundamental cricket data from open-source datasets; however, variables like pitch, weather, and control were not readily available for all matches. As a result, we compiled our corpus data by analyzing the commentary of the match summaries. This gave us an insight into the particular game's weather and pitch conditions. Furthermore, ball-by-ball inspection from the commentary led us to determine the control of the shots played by the batter. We collected data for the entire One Day International career, up to February 2022, of 3 prominent cricket players: Rohit G Sharma, David A Warner, and Kane S Williamson. Lastly, to prepare the dataset, we encoded, scaled, and split the dataset to train and test Machine Learning Algorithms. We used Multiple Linear Regression (MLR), Polynomial Regression, Support Vector Regression (SVR), Decision Tree Regression, and Random Forest Regression on each player's data individually to train them and predict the Impact the player will have on the game. Multiple Linear Regression and Random Forest give the best predictions accuracy of 90.16 percent and 87.12 percent, respectively.

Given a sample of size N, it is often useful to select a subsample of smaller size n<N to be used for statistical estimation or learning. Such a data selection step is useful to reduce the requirements of data labeling and the computational complexity of learning. We assume to be given N unlabeled samples {{boldsymbol x}_i}_{ile N}, and to be given access to a `surrogate model' that can predict labels y_i better than random guessing. Our goal is to select a subset of the samples, to be denoted by {{boldsymbol x}_i}_{iin G}, of size |G|=n<N. We then acquire labels for this set and we use them to train a model via regularized empirical risk minimization. By using a mixture of numerical experiments on real and synthetic data, and mathematical derivations under low- and high- dimensional asymptotics, we show that: (i)~Data selection can be very effective, in particular beating training on the full sample in some cases; (ii)~Certain popular choices in data selection methods (e.g. unbiased reweighted subsampling, or influence function-based subsampling) can be substantially suboptimal.

Probing studies what information is encoded in a frozen LLM's layer representations by training a lightweight predictor on top of them. Beyond analysis, probes are often used operationally in probe-then-steer pipelines: a learned concept vector is extracted from a probe and injected via additive activation steering by adding it to a layer representation during the forward pass. The effectiveness of this pipeline hinges on estimating concept vectors that are accurate, directionally stable under ablation, and inexpensive to obtain. Motivated by these desiderata, we propose RAPTOR (Ridge-Adaptive Logistic Probe), a simple L2-regularized logistic probe whose validation-tuned ridge strength yields concept vectors from normalized weights. Across extensive experiments on instruction-tuned LLMs and human-written concept datasets, RAPTOR matches or exceeds strong baselines in accuracy while achieving competitive directional stability and substantially lower training cost; these quantitative results are supported by qualitative downstream steering demonstrations. Finally, using the Convex Gaussian Min-max Theorem (CGMT), we provide a mechanistic characterization of ridge logistic regression in an idealized Gaussian teacher-student model in the high-dimensional few-shot regime, explaining how penalty strength mediates probe accuracy and concept-vector stability and yielding structural predictions that qualitatively align with trends observed on real LLM embeddings.

Autoregressive sampling from large language models has led to state-of-the-art results in several natural language tasks. However, autoregressive sampling generates tokens one at a time making it slow, and even prohibitive in certain tasks. One way to speed up sampling is speculative decoding: use a small model to sample a draft (block or sequence of tokens), and then score all tokens in the draft by the large language model in parallel. A subset of the tokens in the draft are accepted (and the rest rejected) based on a statistical method to guarantee that the final output follows the distribution of the large model. In this work, we provide a principled understanding of speculative decoding through the lens of optimal transport (OT) with membership cost. This framework can be viewed as an extension of the well-known maximal-coupling problem. This new formulation enables us to generalize the speculative decoding method to allow for a set of k candidates at the token-level, which leads to an improved optimal membership cost. We show that the optimal draft selection algorithm (transport plan) can be computed via linear programming, whose best-known runtime is exponential in k. We then propose a valid draft selection algorithm whose acceptance probability is (1-1/e)-optimal multiplicatively. Moreover, it can be computed in time almost linear with size of domain of a single token. Using this new draft selection algorithm, we develop a new autoregressive sampling algorithm called SpecTr, which provides speedup in decoding while ensuring that there is no quality degradation in the decoded output. We experimentally demonstrate that for state-of-the-art large language models, the proposed approach achieves a wall clock speedup of 2.13X, a further 1.37X speedup over speculative decoding on standard benchmarks.

Benchmarks of machine learning models often include many datasets, making evaluation expensive. For efficiency, it is preferable to perform evaluations on small, representative datasets instead. The selection of such subsets typically relies on heuristics and is rarely analyzed for the robustness of the resulting model rankings. We introduce a framework to perform the task of selecting datasets subsets with an evaluation of how different selection strategies preserve the global model rankings. Our framework includes bootstrap aggregation, which provides valid confidence intervals, allowing a principled comparison of selection strategies. We consider clustering, design criteria (A/D-optimality), random baselines, and greedy farthest-first (FAFI). For the latter, we derive upper bounds on selection quality in terms of ranking errors as a function of the number of selected datasets. Empirically, in time series classification (TSC, 112 datasets) and in a supplementary natural language processing benchmark derived from MTEB (57 tasks), several selection strategies improve rank preservation compared with random subsets, including simple FAFI. In contrast, in recommender systems (30 datasets), the improvement of strategies over random selection is small and typically statistically insignificant. For TSC, our best-performing strategy achieves a Spearman correlation of 0.95 with the full benchmark model rankings using only five selected datasets. Additional experiments indicate that the effectiveness of selection approaches depends on both the quality of dataset representations and the scale of the benchmarking regime.

The Feature Selection Library (FSLib) introduces a comprehensive suite of feature selection (FS) algorithms for MATLAB, aimed at improving machine learning and data mining tasks. FSLib encompasses filter, embedded, and wrapper methods to cater to diverse FS requirements. Filter methods focus on the inherent characteristics of features, embedded methods incorporate FS within model training, and wrapper methods assess features through model performance metrics. By enabling effective feature selection, FSLib addresses the curse of dimensionality, reduces computational load, and enhances model generalizability. The elimination of redundant features through FSLib streamlines the training process, improving efficiency and scalability. This facilitates faster model development and boosts key performance indicators such as accuracy, precision, and recall by focusing on vital features. Moreover, FSLib contributes to data interpretability by revealing important features, aiding in pattern recognition and understanding. Overall, FSLib provides a versatile framework that not only simplifies feature selection but also significantly benefits the machine learning and data mining ecosystem by offering a wide range of algorithms, reducing dimensionality, accelerating model training, improving model outcomes, and enhancing data insights.

Active learning is a machine learning paradigm that aims to improve the performance of a model by strategically selecting and querying unlabeled data. One effective selection strategy is to base it on the model's predictive uncertainty, which can be interpreted as a measure of how informative a sample is. The sample's distance to the decision boundary is a natural measure of predictive uncertainty, but it is often intractable to compute, especially for complex decision boundaries formed in multiclass classification tasks. To address this issue, this paper proposes the {\it least disagree metric} (LDM), defined as the smallest probability of disagreement of the predicted label, and an estimator for LDM proven to be asymptotically consistent under mild assumptions. The estimator is computationally efficient and can be easily implemented for deep learning models using parameter perturbation. The LDM-based active learning is performed by querying unlabeled data with the smallest LDM. Experimental results show that our LDM-based active learning algorithm obtains state-of-the-art overall performance on all considered datasets and deep architectures.

The ethical concept of fairness has recently been applied in machine learning (ML) settings to describe a wide range of constraints and objectives. When considering the relevance of ethical concepts to subset selection problems, the concepts of diversity and inclusion are additionally applicable in order to create outputs that account for social power and access differentials. We introduce metrics based on these concepts, which can be applied together, separately, and in tandem with additional fairness constraints. Results from human subject experiments lend support to the proposed criteria. Social choice methods can additionally be leveraged to aggregate and choose preferable sets, and we detail how these may be applied.

Selecting high-quality and diverse training samples from extensive datasets plays a crucial role in reducing training overhead and enhancing the performance of Large Language Models (LLMs). However, existing studies fall short in assessing the overall value of selected data, focusing primarily on individual quality, and struggle to strike an effective balance between ensuring diversity and minimizing data point traversals. Therefore, this paper introduces a novel choice-based sample selection framework that shifts the focus from evaluating individual sample quality to comparing the contribution value of different samples when incorporated into the subset. Thanks to the advanced language understanding capabilities of LLMs, we utilize LLMs to evaluate the value of each option during the selection process. Furthermore, we design a greedy sampling process where samples are incrementally added to the subset, thereby improving efficiency by eliminating the need for exhaustive traversal of the entire dataset with the limited budget. Extensive experiments demonstrate that selected data from our method not only surpass the performance of the full dataset but also achieves competitive results with state-of-the-art (SOTA) studies, while requiring fewer selections. Moreover, we validate our approach on a larger medical dataset, highlighting its practical applicability in real-world applications.

When fitting the learning data of an individual to algorithm-like learning models, the observations are so dependent and non-stationary that one may wonder what the classical Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE) could do, even if it is the usual tool applied to experimental cognition. Our objective in this work is to show that the estimation of the learning rate cannot be efficient if the learning rate is constant in the classical Exp3 (Exponential weights for Exploration and Exploitation) algorithm. Secondly, we show that if the learning rate decreases polynomially with the sample size, then the prediction error and in some cases the estimation error of the MLE satisfy bounds in probability that decrease at a polynomial rate.

Estimating the impact of continuous treatment variables (e.g., dosage amount) on binary outcomes presents significant challenges in modeling and estimation because many existing approaches make strong assumptions that do not hold for certain continuous treatment variables. For instance, traditional logistic regression makes strong linearity assumptions that do not hold for continuous treatment variables like time of initiation. In this work, we propose a semiparametric regression framework that decomposes effects into two interpretable components: a prognostic score that captures baseline outcome risk based on a combination of clinical, genetic, and sociodemographic features, and a treatment-interaction score that flexibly models the optimal treatment level via a nonparametric link function. By connecting these two parametric scores with Nadaraya-Watson regression, our approach is both interpretable and flexible. The potential of our approach is demonstrated through numerical simulations that show empirical estimation convergence. We conclude by applying our approach to a real-world case study using the International Warfarin Pharmacogenomics Consortium (IWPC) dataset to show our approach's clinical utility by deriving personalized warfarin dosing recommendations that integrate both genetic and clinical data, providing insights towards enhancing patient safety and therapeutic efficacy in anticoagulation therapy.

Supervised fine-tuning (SFT) is a commonly used technique to adapt large language models (LLMs) to downstream tasks. In practice, SFT on a full dataset is computationally expensive and sometimes suffers from overfitting or bias amplification. This facilitates the rise of data curation in SFT, which prioritizes the most valuable data to optimze. This work studies the online batch selection family that dynamically scores and filters samples during the training process. However, existing popular methods often (i) rely merely on the utility of data to select a subset while neglecting other crucial factors like diversity, (ii) rely on external resources such as reference models or validation sets, and (iii) incur extra training time over full-dataset training. To address these limitations, this work develops UDS (Utility-Diversity Sampling), a framework for efficient online batch selection in SFT. UDS leverages the nuclear norm of the logits matrix to capture both data utility and intra-sample diversity, while estimating inter-sample diversity through efficient low-dimensional embedding comparisons with a lightweight memory buffer of historical samples. Such a design eliminates the need for external resources and unnecessary backpropagation, securing computational efficiency. Experiments on multiple benchmarks demonstrate that UDS consistently outperforms state-of-the-art online batch selection methods under varying data budgets, and significantly reduces training time compared to full-dataset fine-tuning. Code is available at https://github.com/gfyddha/UDS.

The prevalence and importance of algorithmic two-sided marketplaces has drawn attention to the issue of fairness in such settings. Algorithmic decisions are used in assigning students to schools, users to advertisers, and applicants to job interviews. These decisions should heed the preferences of individuals, and simultaneously be fair with respect to their merits (synonymous with fit, future performance, or need). Merits conditioned on observable features are always uncertain, a fact that is exacerbated by the widespread use of machine learning algorithms to infer merit from the observables. As our key contribution, we carefully axiomatize a notion of individual fairness in the two-sided marketplace setting which respects the uncertainty in the merits; indeed, it simultaneously recognizes uncertainty as the primary potential cause of unfairness and an approach to address it. We design a linear programming framework to find fair utility-maximizing distributions over allocations, and we show that the linear program is robust to perturbations in the estimated parameters of the uncertain merit distributions, a key property in combining the approach with machine learning techniques.

We consider a number of graph kernels and proximity measures including commute time kernel, regularized Laplacian kernel, heat kernel, exponential diffusion kernel (also called "communicability"), etc., and the corresponding distances as applied to clustering nodes in random graphs and several well-known datasets. The model of generating random graphs involves edge probabilities for the pairs of nodes that belong to the same class or different predefined classes of nodes. It turns out that in most cases, logarithmic measures (i.e., measures resulting after taking logarithm of the proximities) perform better while distinguishing underlying classes than the "plain" measures. A comparison in terms of reject curves of inter-class and intra-class distances confirms this conclusion. A similar conclusion can be made for several well-known datasets. A possible origin of this effect is that most kernels have a multiplicative nature, while the nature of distances used in cluster algorithms is an additive one (cf. the triangle inequality). The logarithmic transformation is a tool to transform the first nature to the second one. Moreover, some distances corresponding to the logarithmic measures possess a meaningful cutpoint additivity property. In our experiments, the leader is usually the logarithmic Communicability measure. However, we indicate some more complicated cases in which other measures, typically, Communicability and plain Walk, can be the winners.

Latent variable (LV) models are widely used in psychological research to investigate relationships among unobservable constructs. When one-stage estimation of the overall LV model is challenging, two-stage factor score regression (FSR) serves as a convenient alternative: the measurement model is fitted to obtain factor scores in the first stage, which are then used to fit the structural model in the subsequent stage. However, naive application of FSR is known to yield biased estimates of structural parameters. In this paper, we develop a generic bias-correction framework for two-stage estimation of parametric statistical models and tailor it specifically to FSR. Unlike existing bias-corrected FSR solutions, the proposed method applies to a broader class of LV models and does not require computing specific types of factor scores. We establish the root-n consistency of the proposed bias-corrected two-stage estimator under mild regularity conditions. To ensure broad applicability and minimize reliance on complex analytical derivations, we introduce a stochastic approximation algorithm for point estimation and a Monte Carlo-based procedure for variance estimation. In a sequence of Monte Carlo experiments, we demonstrate that the bias-corrected FSR estimator performs comparably to the ``gold standard'' one-stage maximum likelihood estimator. These results suggest that our approach offers a straightforward yet effective alternative for estimating LV models.

We study linear contextual bandits in the misspecified setting, where the expected reward function can be approximated by a linear function class up to a bounded misspecification level zeta>0. We propose an algorithm based on a novel data selection scheme, which only selects the contextual vectors with large uncertainty for online regression. We show that, when the misspecification level zeta is dominated by tilde O (Delta / d) with Delta being the minimal sub-optimality gap and d being the dimension of the contextual vectors, our algorithm enjoys the same gap-dependent regret bound tilde O (d^2/Delta) as in the well-specified setting up to logarithmic factors. In addition, we show that an existing algorithm SupLinUCB (Chu et al., 2011) can also achieve a gap-dependent constant regret bound without the knowledge of sub-optimality gap Delta. Together with a lower bound adapted from Lattimore et al. (2020), our result suggests an interplay between misspecification level and the sub-optimality gap: (1) the linear contextual bandit model is efficiently learnable when zeta leq tilde O(Delta / d); and (2) it is not efficiently learnable when zeta geq tilde Omega({Delta} / {d}). Experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets corroborate our theoretical results.

Conjoint analysis, an application of factorial experimental design, is a popular tool in social science research for studying multidimensional preferences. In such experiments in the political analysis context, respondents are asked to choose between two hypothetical political candidates with randomly selected features, which can include partisanship, policy positions, gender and race. We consider the problem of identifying optimal candidate profiles. Because the number of unique feature combinations far exceeds the total number of observations in a typical conjoint experiment, it is impossible to determine the optimal profile exactly. To address this identification challenge, we derive an optimal stochastic intervention that represents a probability distribution of various attributes aimed at achieving the most favorable average outcome. We first consider an environment where one political party optimizes their candidate selection. We then move to the more realistic case where two political parties optimize their own candidate selection simultaneously and in opposition to each other. We apply the proposed methodology to an existing candidate choice conjoint experiment concerning vote choice for US president. We find that, in contrast to the non-adversarial approach, expected outcomes in the adversarial regime fall within range of historical electoral outcomes, with optimal strategies suggested by the method more likely to match the actual observed candidates compared to strategies derived from a non-adversarial approach. These findings indicate that incorporating adversarial dynamics into conjoint analysis may yield unique insight into social science data from experiments.

Training classifiers is difficult with severe class imbalance, but many rare events are the culmination of a sequence with much more common intermediate outcomes. For example, in online marketing a user first sees an ad, then may click on it, and finally may make a purchase; estimating the probability of purchases is difficult because of their rarity. We show both theoretically and through data experiments that the more abundant data in earlier steps may be leveraged to improve estimation of probabilities of rare events. We present PRESTO, a relaxation of the proportional odds model for ordinal regression. Instead of estimating weights for one separating hyperplane that is shifted by separate intercepts for each of the estimated Bayes decision boundaries between adjacent pairs of categorical responses, we estimate separate weights for each of these transitions. We impose an L1 penalty on the differences between weights for the same feature in adjacent weight vectors in order to shrink towards the proportional odds model. We prove that PRESTO consistently estimates the decision boundary weights under a sparsity assumption. Synthetic and real data experiments show that our method can estimate rare probabilities in this setting better than both logistic regression on the rare category, which fails to borrow strength from more abundant categories, and the proportional odds model, which is too inflexible.

The study emphasizes the challenge of finding the optimal trade-off between bias and variance, especially as hyperparameter optimization increases in complexity. Through empirical analysis, three hyperparameter tuning algorithms Tree-structured Parzen Estimator (TPE), Genetic Search, and Random Search are evaluated across regression and classification tasks. The results show that nonlinear models, with properly tuned hyperparameters, significantly outperform linear models. Interestingly, Random Search excelled in regression tasks, while TPE was more effective for classification tasks. This suggests that there is no one-size-fits-all solution, as different algorithms perform better depending on the task and model type. The findings underscore the importance of selecting the appropriate tuning method and highlight the computational challenges involved in optimizing machine learning models, particularly as search spaces expand.

Tuning the regularization parameter in penalized regression models is an expensive task, requiring multiple models to be fit along a path of parameters. Strong screening rules drastically reduce computational costs by lowering the dimensionality of the input prior to fitting. We develop strong screening rules for group-based Sorted L-One Penalized Estimation (SLOPE) models: Group SLOPE and Sparse-group SLOPE. The developed rules are applicable to the wider family of group-based OWL models, including OSCAR. Our experiments on both synthetic and real data show that the screening rules significantly accelerate the fitting process. The screening rules make it accessible for group SLOPE and sparse-group SLOPE to be applied to high-dimensional datasets, particularly those encountered in genetics.

We study the problem of model selection in causal inference, specifically for the case of conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimation under binary treatments. Unlike model selection in machine learning, there is no perfect analogue of cross-validation as we do not observe the counterfactual potential outcome for any data point. Towards this, there have been a variety of proxy metrics proposed in the literature, that depend on auxiliary nuisance models estimated from the observed data (propensity score model, outcome regression model). However, the effectiveness of these metrics has only been studied on synthetic datasets as we can access the counterfactual data for them. We conduct an extensive empirical analysis to judge the performance of these metrics introduced in the literature, and novel ones introduced in this work, where we utilize the latest advances in generative modeling to incorporate multiple realistic datasets. Our analysis suggests novel model selection strategies based on careful hyperparameter tuning of CATE estimators and causal ensembling.

In this paper, we introduce the Preselection Bandit problem, in which the learner preselects a subset of arms (choice alternatives) for a user, which then chooses the final arm from this subset. The learner is not aware of the user's preferences, but can learn them from observed choices. In our concrete setting, we allow these choices to be stochastic and model the user's actions by means of the Plackett-Luce model. The learner's main task is to preselect subsets that eventually lead to highly preferred choices. To formalize this goal, we introduce a reasonable notion of regret and derive lower bounds on the expected regret. Moreover, we propose algorithms for which the upper bound on expected regret matches the lower bound up to a logarithmic term of the time horizon.

Generative reward models with parallel sampling have enabled effective test-time scaling for reasoning tasks. Current approaches employ pointwise scoring of individual solutions or pairwise comparisons. However, pointwise methods underutilize LLMs' comparative abilities, while pairwise methods scale inefficiently with larger sampling budgets. We introduce GenSelect, where the LLM uses long reasoning to select the best solution among N candidates. This leverages LLMs' comparative strengths while scaling efficiently across parallel sampling budgets. For math reasoning, we demonstrate that reasoning models, such as QwQ and DeepSeek-R1-0528, excel at GenSelect, outperforming existing scoring approaches with simple prompting.

Many commercial Large Language Models (LLMs) are often closed-source, limiting developers to prompt tuning for aligning content generation with specific applications. While these models currently do not provide access to token logits, we argue that if such access were available, it would enable more powerful adaptation techniques beyond prompt engineering. In this paper, we propose a token-level probability reweighting framework that, given access to logits and a small amount of task-specific data, can effectively steer black-box LLMs toward application-specific content generation. Our approach views next-token prediction through the lens of supervised classification. We show that aligning black-box LLMs with task-specific data can be formulated as a label noise correction problem, leading to Plugin model -- an autoregressive probability reweighting model that operates solely on logits. We provide theoretical justification for why reweighting logits alone is sufficient for task adaptation. Extensive experiments with multiple datasets, LLMs, and reweighting models demonstrate the effectiveness of our method, advocating for broader access to token logits in closed-source models.

Training data influence estimation methods quantify the contribution of training documents to a model's output, making them a promising source of information for example-based explanations. As humans cannot interpret thousands of documents, only a small subset of the training data can be presented as an explanation. Although the choice of which documents to include directly affects explanation quality, previous evaluations of such systems have largely ignored any selection strategies. To address this, we propose a novel selection relevance score, a retraining-free metric that quantifies how useful a set of examples is for explaining a model's output. We validate this score through fine-tuning experiments, confirming that it can predict whether a set of examples supports or undermines the model's predictions. Using this metric, we further show that common selection strategies often underperform random selection. Motivated by this finding, we propose a strategy that balances influence and representativeness, enabling better use of selection budgets than naively selecting the highest-ranking examples.

We give a new algorithm for best arm identification in linearly parameterised bandits in the fixed confidence setting. The algorithm generalises the well-known LUCB algorithm of Kalyanakrishnan et al. (2012) by playing an arm which minimises a suitable notion of geometric overlap of the statistical confidence set for the unknown parameter, and is fully adaptive and computationally efficient as compared to several state-of-the methods. We theoretically analyse the sample complexity of the algorithm for problems with two and three arms, showing optimality in many cases. Numerical results indicate favourable performance over other algorithms with which we compare.

With the increasing numbers of publicly available models, there are probably pretrained, online models for most tasks users require. However, current model search methods are rudimentary, essentially a text-based search in the documentation, thus users cannot find the relevant models. This paper presents ProbeLog, a method for retrieving classification models that can recognize a target concept, such as "Dog", without access to model metadata or training data. Differently from previous probing methods, ProbeLog computes a descriptor for each output dimension (logit) of each model, by observing its responses on a fixed set of inputs (probes). Our method supports both logit-based retrieval ("find more logits like this") and zero-shot, text-based retrieval ("find all logits corresponding to dogs"). As probing-based representations require multiple costly feedforward passes through the model, we develop a method, based on collaborative filtering, that reduces the cost of encoding repositories by 3x. We demonstrate that ProbeLog achieves high retrieval accuracy, both in real-world and fine-grained search tasks and is scalable to full-size repositories.

We study dynamic regret minimization in non-stationary online learning, with a primary focus on follow-the-regularized-leader (FTRL) methods. FTRL is important for curved losses and for understanding adaptive optimizers such as Adam, yet existing dynamic regret analyses are less explored for FTRL. To address this, we build on the discounted-to-dynamic reduction and present a modular way to obtain dynamic regret bounds of FTRL-related problems. Specifically, we focus on two representative curved losses: linear regression and logistic regression. Our method not only simplifies existing proofs for the optimal dynamic regret of online linear regression, but also yields new dynamic regret guarantees for online logistic regression. Beyond online convex optimization, we apply the reduction to analyze the Adam optimizers, obtaining optimal convergence rates in stochastic, non-convex, and non-smooth settings. The reduction also enables a more detailed treatment of Adam with two discount parameters (β_1,β_2), leading to new results for both clipped and clip-free variants of Adam optimizers.

Automated machine learning (AutoML) systems commonly ensemble models post hoc to improve predictive performance, typically via greedy ensemble selection (GES). However, we believe that GES may not always be optimal, as it performs a simple deterministic greedy search. In this work, we introduce two novel population-based ensemble selection methods, QO-ES and QDO-ES, and compare them to GES. While QO-ES optimises solely for predictive performance, QDO-ES also considers the diversity of ensembles within the population, maintaining a diverse set of well-performing ensembles during optimisation based on ideas of quality diversity optimisation. The methods are evaluated using 71 classification datasets from the AutoML benchmark, demonstrating that QO-ES and QDO-ES often outrank GES, albeit only statistically significant on validation data. Our results further suggest that diversity can be beneficial for post hoc ensembling but also increases the risk of overfitting.

Model selection/optimization in conformal inference is challenging, since it may break the exchangeability between labeled and unlabeled data. We study this problem in the context of conformal selection, which uses conformal p-values to select ``interesting'' instances with large unobserved labels from a pool of unlabeled data, while controlling the FDR in finite sample. For validity, existing solutions require the model choice to be independent of the data used to construct the p-values and calibrate the selection set. However, when presented with many model choices and limited labeled data, it is desirable to (i) select the best model in a data-driven manner, and (ii) mitigate power loss due to sample splitting. This paper presents OptCS, a general framework that allows valid statistical testing (selection) after flexible data-driven model optimization. We introduce general conditions under which OptCS constructs valid conformal p-values despite substantial data reuse and handles complex p-value dependencies to maintain finite-sample FDR control via a novel multiple testing procedure. We instantiate this general recipe to propose three FDR-controlling procedures, each optimizing the models differently: (i) selecting the most powerful one among multiple pre-trained candidate models, (ii) using all data for model fitting without sample splitting, and (iii) combining full-sample model fitting and selection. We demonstrate the efficacy of our methods via simulation studies and real applications in drug discovery and alignment of large language models in radiology report generation.

Rigorous evaluation of large language models (LLMs) relies on comparing models by the prevalence of desirable or undesirable behaviors, such as task pass rates or policy violations. These prevalence estimates are produced by a classifier, either an LLM-as-a-judge or human annotators, making the choice of classifier central to trustworthy evaluation. Common metrics used for this choice, such as Accuracy, Precision, and F1, are sensitive to class imbalance and to arbitrary choices of positive class, and can favor judges that distort prevalence estimates. We show that Youden's J statistic is theoretically aligned with choosing the best judge to compare models, and that Balanced Accuracy is an equivalent linear transformation of J. Through both analytical arguments and empirical examples and simulations, we demonstrate how selecting judges using Balanced Accuracy leads to better, more robust classifier selection.

We study the complexity of sampling from a distribution over all index subsets of the set {1,...,n} with the probability of a subset S proportional to the determinant of the submatrix L_S of some ntimes n p.s.d. matrix L, where L_S corresponds to the entries of L indexed by S. Known as a determinantal point process, this distribution is used in machine learning to induce diversity in subset selection. In practice, we often wish to sample multiple subsets S with small expected size k = E[|S|] ll n from a very large matrix L, so it is important to minimize the preprocessing cost of the procedure (performed once) as well as the sampling cost (performed repeatedly). For this purpose, we propose a new algorithm which, given access to L, samples exactly from a determinantal point process while satisfying the following two properties: (1) its preprocessing cost is n cdot poly(k), i.e., sublinear in the size of L, and (2) its sampling cost is poly(k), i.e., independent of the size of L. Prior to our results, state-of-the-art exact samplers required O(n^3) preprocessing time and sampling time linear in n or dependent on the spectral properties of L. We also give a reduction which allows using our algorithm for exact sampling from cardinality constrained determinantal point processes with ncdotpoly(k) time preprocessing.

Binary classification involves predicting the label of an instance based on whether the model score for the positive class exceeds a threshold chosen based on the application requirements (e.g., maximizing recall for a precision bound). However, model scores are often not aligned with the true positivity rate. This is especially true when the training involves a differential sampling across classes or there is distributional drift between train and test settings. In this paper, we provide theoretical analysis and empirical evidence of the dependence of model score estimation bias on both uncertainty and score itself. Further, we formulate the decision boundary selection in terms of both model score and uncertainty, prove that it is NP-hard, and present algorithms based on dynamic programming and isotonic regression. Evaluation of the proposed algorithms on three real-world datasets yield 25%-40% gain in recall at high precision bounds over the traditional approach of using model score alone, highlighting the benefits of leveraging uncertainty.

Regression trees are among the most interpretable yet expressive model classes in machine learning. Historically, greedy induction has been the dominant approach for constructing well-performing regression trees. While optimal methods based on dynamic programming and branch-and-bound exist, they are computationally prohibitive for general linear regression trees, despite often achieving substantially better performance than greedy approaches. Recent work has shown that specialized lookahead strategies can dramatically improve runtime while maintaining near-optimal performance, primarily in classification settings. In this work, we develop a novel algorithm for near-optimal, sparse, piecewise linear regression trees that combines a lookahead-style search strategy with efficient rank-one Cholesky updates of the Gram matrix. We demonstrate, both theoretically and empirically, that our method achieves a favorable trade-off between computational efficiency, predictive accuracy, and sparsity, and scales significantly better than the current state of the art.

In recent years, developing compact and efficient large language models (LLMs) has emerged as a thriving area of research. Traditional Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT), which relies on singular ground truth labels, often fails to capture token-level dependencies and linguistic diversity. To address these limitations, we propose a logits-based fine-tuning framework that integrates the strengths of supervised learning and knowledge distillation. Our approach constructs enriched training targets by combining teacher logits with ground truth labels, preserving both correctness and linguistic diversity. This ensures more reliable and effective training. We constructed a large-scale 1.2M logits dataset and trained a series of science-focused models. Experimental results demonstrate that our method achieves significant improvements, with accuracy gains of 18% on Mawps and 22.7% on TabMWP. Across nine widely used mathematical benchmarks, our method consistently outperforms prior SFT models, achieving an average improvement of 7.28%. Codes are available at https://github.com/dvlab-research/Logits-Based-Finetuning.

The lottery ticket hypothesis (LTH) has increased attention to pruning neural networks at initialization. We study this problem in the linear setting. We show that finding a sparse mask at initialization is equivalent to the sketching problem introduced for efficient matrix multiplication. This gives us tools to analyze the LTH problem and gain insights into it. Specifically, using the mask found at initialization, we bound the approximation error of the pruned linear model at the end of training. We theoretically justify previous empirical evidence that the search for sparse networks may be data independent. By using the sketching perspective, we suggest a generic improvement to existing algorithms for pruning at initialization, which we show to be beneficial in the data-independent case.

The rapid advancement in large language models (LLMs) has brought forth a diverse range of models with varying capabilities that excel in different tasks and domains. However, selecting the optimal LLM for user queries often involves a challenging trade-off between accuracy and cost, a problem exacerbated by the diverse demands of individual queries. In this work, we present a novel framework that formulates the LLM selection process as a multi-armed bandit problem, enabling dynamic and intelligent routing of queries to the most appropriate model. Our approach incorporates a preference-conditioned dynamic routing mechanism, allowing users to specify their preferences at inference time, thereby offering a customizable balance between performance and cost. Additionally, our selection policy is designed to generalize to unseen LLMs, ensuring adaptability to new models as they emerge. Experimental results demonstrate that our method achieves significant improvements in both accuracy and cost-effectiveness across various LLM platforms, showcasing the potential of our framework to adaptively optimize LLM selection in real-world scenarios.

We propose an algorithm for change point monitoring in linear causal models that accounts for interventions. Through a special centralization technique, we can concentrate the changes arising from causal propagation across nodes into a single dimension. Additionally, by selecting appropriate intervention nodes based on Kullback-Leibler divergence, we can amplify the change magnitude. We also present an algorithm for selecting the intervention values, which aids in the identification of the most effective intervention nodes. Two monitoring methods are proposed, each with an adaptive intervention policy to make a balance between exploration and exploitation. We theoretically demonstrate the first-order optimality of the proposed methods and validate their properties using simulation datasets and two real-world case studies.

When selecting data for training large-scale models, standard practice is to filter for examples that match human notions of data quality. Such filtering yields qualitatively clean datapoints that intuitively should improve model behavior. However, in practice the opposite can often happen: we find that selecting according to similarity with "high quality" data sources may not increase (and can even hurt) performance compared to randomly selecting data. To develop better methods for selecting data, we start by framing dataset selection as an optimization problem that we can directly solve for: given target tasks, a learning algorithm, and candidate data, select the subset that maximizes model performance. This framework thus avoids handpicked notions of data quality, and instead models explicitly how the learning process uses train datapoints to predict on the target tasks. Our resulting method greatly improves language model (LM) performance on both pre-specified tasks and previously unseen tasks. Specifically, choosing target tasks representative of standard LM problems and evaluating on diverse held-out benchmarks, our selected datasets provide a 2x compute multiplier over baseline methods.

Traditional knowledge distillation focuses on aligning the student's predicted probabilities with both ground-truth labels and the teacher's predicted probabilities. However, the transition to predicted probabilities from logits would obscure certain indispensable information. To address this issue, it is intuitive to additionally introduce a logit-level loss function as a supplement to the widely used probability-level loss function, for exploiting the latent information of logits. Unfortunately, we empirically find that the amalgamation of the newly introduced logit-level loss and the previous probability-level loss will lead to performance degeneration, even trailing behind the performance of employing either loss in isolation. We attribute this phenomenon to the collapse of the classification head, which is verified by our theoretical analysis based on the neural collapse theory. Specifically, the gradients of the two loss functions exhibit contradictions in the linear classifier yet display no such conflict within the backbone. Drawing from the theoretical analysis, we propose a novel method called dual-head knowledge distillation, which partitions the linear classifier into two classification heads responsible for different losses, thereby preserving the beneficial effects of both losses on the backbone while eliminating adverse influences on the classification head. Extensive experiments validate that our method can effectively exploit the information inside the logits and achieve superior performance against state-of-the-art counterparts.

We study the problem of estimating the distribution of the return of a policy using an offline dataset that is not generated from the policy, i.e., distributional offline policy evaluation (OPE). We propose an algorithm called Fitted Likelihood Estimation (FLE), which conducts a sequence of Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) and has the flexibility of integrating any state-of-the-art probabilistic generative models as long as it can be trained via MLE. FLE can be used for both finite-horizon and infinite-horizon discounted settings where rewards can be multi-dimensional vectors. Our theoretical results show that for both finite-horizon and infinite-horizon discounted settings, FLE can learn distributions that are close to the ground truth under total variation distance and Wasserstein distance, respectively. Our theoretical results hold under the conditions that the offline data covers the test policy's traces and that the supervised learning MLE procedures succeed. Experimentally, we demonstrate the performance of FLE with two generative models, Gaussian mixture models and diffusion models. For the multi-dimensional reward setting, FLE with diffusion models is capable of estimating the complicated distribution of the return of a test policy.

We consider the problem of learning a target function corresponding to a single hidden layer neural network, with a quadratic activation function after the first layer, and random weights. We consider the asymptotic limit where the input dimension and the network width are proportionally large. Recent work [Cui & al '23] established that linear regression provides Bayes-optimal test error to learn such a function when the number of available samples is only linear in the dimension. That work stressed the open challenge of theoretically analyzing the optimal test error in the more interesting regime where the number of samples is quadratic in the dimension. In this paper, we solve this challenge for quadratic activations and derive a closed-form expression for the Bayes-optimal test error. We also provide an algorithm, that we call GAMP-RIE, which combines approximate message passing with rotationally invariant matrix denoising, and that asymptotically achieves the optimal performance. Technically, our result is enabled by establishing a link with recent works on optimal denoising of extensive-rank matrices and on the ellipsoid fitting problem. We further show empirically that, in the absence of noise, randomly-initialized gradient descent seems to sample the space of weights, leading to zero training loss, and averaging over initialization leads to a test error equal to the Bayes-optimal one.

Cross-tokenizer knowledge distillation allows a student model to learn from teachers with incompatible vocabularies. Prior work operates on hidden states or logits; the latter is preferred as a drop-in replacement requiring no auxiliary components. Logit-based methods either use only the correct-token probability, missing the full 'dark knowledge' in the teacher's distribution, or operate on the full output distribution, relying on strict token partitioning and/or unprincipled heuristic ranking. We identify two key shortcomings of full-distribution, logit-based methods: (i) an uncommon-token failure, where critical tokens fall into the unmatched subset (e.g., Llama's 1100 multi-digit numerals under digit-splitting Qwen supervision) and are suppressed during training, reducing GSM8k from 12.89 to 2.56 compared to same-tokenizer KD from a weaker teacher; and (ii) over-conservative matching, where strict 1-to-1 matching excludes near-equivalent tokens across surface forms. These failures require distinct remedies: eliminating the partition when critical tokens are misaligned, and refining it when alignment is reliable. We propose X-Token, an approach with two complementary loss formulations targeting these issues. P-KL removes partitioning and aligns the student's distribution with the teacher's via a sparse projection matrix W (initialized from tokenizer-level string rules) to address the uncommon-token failure. H-KL retains the hybrid form while relaxing matching to align each student token with its top-ranked teacher mapping under W. Both objectives share W and extend naturally to multiple teachers. Empirically, on Llama-3.2-1B, X-Token outperforms the current state of the art GOLD by +3.82 average points with a Qwen3-4B teacher and by +0.5 with a Phi-4-Mini teacher. Further, a two-teacher setup (Phi-4-mini + Llama-3B) improves over single-teacher distillation by +1.3 points.

A key challenge in applying reinforcement learning (RL) to diffusion large language models (dLLMs) lies in the intractability of their likelihood functions, which are essential for the RL objective, necessitating corresponding approximation in each training step. While existing methods approximate the log-likelihoods by their evidence lower bounds (ELBOs) via customized Monte Carlo (MC) sampling, the forward computational graphs of all MC samples need to be retained for the gradient computation of non-linear terms in the RL objective, resulting in significant memory overhead. This constraint restricts feasible sample sizes, leading to imprecise likelihood approximations and ultimately distorting the RL objective. To overcome this limitation, we propose Boundary-Guided Policy Optimization (BGPO), a memory-efficient RL algorithm that maximizes a specially constructed lower bound of the ELBO-based objective. This lower bound is carefully designed to satisfy two key properties: (1) Linearity: it is formulated in a linear sum where each term depends only on a single MC sample, thereby enabling gradient accumulation across samples and ensuring constant memory usage; (2) Equivalence: Both the value and gradient of this lower bound are equal to those of the ELBO-based objective in on-policy training, making it also an effective approximation for the original RL objective. These properties allow BGPO to adopt a large MC sample size, resulting in more accurate likelihood approximations and improved RL objective estimation, which in turn leads to enhanced performance. Experiments show that BGPO significantly outperforms previous RL algorithms for dLLMs in math problem solving, code generation, and planning tasks.

Citizens' assemblies are a form of democratic innovation in which a randomly selected panel of constituents deliberates on questions of public interest. We study a novel goal for the selection of panel members: maximizing the entropy of the distribution over possible panels. We design algorithms that sample from maximum-entropy distributions, potentially subject to constraints on the individual selection probabilities. We investigate the properties of these algorithms theoretically, including in terms of their resistance to manipulation and transparency. We benchmark our algorithms on a large set of real assembly lotteries in terms of their intersectional diversity and the probability of satisfying unseen representation constraints, and we obtain favorable results on both measures. We deploy one of our algorithms on a website for citizens' assembly practitioners.

Knowledge distillation is a model compression technique in which a compact "student" network is trained to replicate the predictive behavior of a larger "teacher" network. In logit-based knowledge distillation, it has become the de facto approach to augment cross-entropy with a distillation term. Typically, this term is either a KL divergence that matches marginal probabilities or a correlation-based loss that captures intra- and inter-class relationships. In every case, it acts as an additional term to cross-entropy. This term has its own weight, which must be carefully tuned. In this paper, we adopt a choice-theoretic perspective and recast knowledge distillation under the Plackett-Luce model by interpreting teacher logits as "worth" scores. We introduce "Plackett-Luce Distillation (PLD)", a weighted list-wise ranking loss. In PLD, the teacher model transfers knowledge of its full ranking of classes, weighting each ranked choice by its own confidence. PLD directly optimizes a single "teacher-optimal" ranking. The true label is placed first, followed by the remaining classes in descending teacher confidence. This process yields a convex and translation-invariant surrogate that subsumes weighted cross-entropy. Empirically, across CIFAR-100, ImageNet-1K, and MS-COCO, PLD achieves consistent gains across diverse architectures and distillation objectives, including divergence-based, correlation-based, and feature-based methods, in both homogeneous and heterogeneous teacher-student pairs.

We study the problem of approximating stationary points of Lipschitz and smooth functions under (varepsilon,delta)-differential privacy (DP) in both the finite-sum and stochastic settings. A point w is called an alpha-stationary point of a function F:R^drightarrowR if |nabla F(w)|leq alpha. We provide a new efficient algorithm that finds an Obig(big[sqrt{d}{nvarepsilon}big]^{2/3}big)-stationary point in the finite-sum setting, where n is the number of samples. This improves on the previous best rate of Obig(big[sqrt{d}{nvarepsilon}big]^{1/2}big). We also give a new construction that improves over the existing rates in the stochastic optimization setting, where the goal is to find approximate stationary points of the population risk. Our construction finds a Obig(1{n^{1/3}} + big[sqrt{d}{nvarepsilon}big]^{1/2}big)-stationary point of the population risk in time linear in n. Furthermore, under the additional assumption of convexity, we completely characterize the sample complexity of finding stationary points of the population risk (up to polylog factors) and show that the optimal rate on population stationarity is tilde Thetabig(1{n}+sqrt{d}{nvarepsilon}big). Finally, we show that our methods can be used to provide dimension-independent rates of Obig(1{n}+minbig(big[sqrt{rank}{nvarepsilon}big]^{2/3},1{(nvarepsilon)^{2/5}}big)big) on population stationarity for Generalized Linear Models (GLM), where rank is the rank of the design matrix, which improves upon the previous best known rate.

A simple and effective method for the alignment of generative models is the best-of-n policy, where n samples are drawn from a base policy, and ranked based on a reward function, and the highest ranking one is selected. A commonly used analytical expression in the literature claims that the KL divergence between the best-of-n policy and the base policy is equal to log (n) - (n-1)/n. We disprove the validity of this claim, and show that it is an upper bound on the actual KL divergence. We also explore the tightness of this upper bound in different regimes. Finally, we propose a new estimator for the KL divergence and empirically show that it provides a tight approximation through a few examples.

Understanding the performance of machine learning (ML) models across diverse data distributions is critically important for reliable applications. Despite recent empirical studies positing a near-perfect linear correlation between in-distribution (ID) and out-of-distribution (OOD) accuracies, we empirically demonstrate that this correlation is more nuanced under subpopulation shifts. Through rigorous experimentation and analysis across a variety of datasets, models, and training epochs, we demonstrate that OOD performance often has a nonlinear correlation with ID performance in subpopulation shifts. Our findings, which contrast previous studies that have posited a linear correlation in model performance during distribution shifts, reveal a "moon shape" correlation (parabolic uptrend curve) between the test performance on the majority subpopulation and the minority subpopulation. This non-trivial nonlinear correlation holds across model architectures, hyperparameters, training durations, and the imbalance between subpopulations. Furthermore, we found that the nonlinearity of this "moon shape" is causally influenced by the degree of spurious correlations in the training data. Our controlled experiments show that stronger spurious correlation in the training data creates more nonlinear performance correlation. We provide complementary experimental and theoretical analyses for this phenomenon, and discuss its implications for ML reliability and fairness. Our work highlights the importance of understanding the nonlinear effects of model improvement on performance in different subpopulations, and has the potential to inform the development of more equitable and responsible machine learning models.

The ever-growing ecosystem of LLMs has posed a challenge in selecting the most appropriate pre-trained model to fine-tune amidst a sea of options. Given constrained resources, fine-tuning all models and making selections afterward is unrealistic. In this work, we formulate this resource-constrained selection task into predicting fine-tuning performance and illustrate its natural connection with scaling laws. Unlike pre-training, We find that the fine-tuning scaling curve includes not just the well-known "power phase" but also the previously unobserved "pre-power phase". We also explain why existing scaling laws fail to capture this phase transition phenomenon both theoretically and empirically. To address this, we introduce the concept of "pre-learned data size" into our rectified scaling law, which overcomes theoretical limitations and fits experimental results much better. By leveraging our law, we propose a novel LLM selection algorithm that selects the near-optimal model with hundreds of times less resource consumption, while other methods may provide negatively correlated selection.

Model selection is a strategy aimed at creating accurate and robust models. A key challenge in designing these algorithms is identifying the optimal model for classifying any particular input sample. This paper addresses this challenge and proposes a novel framework for differentiable model selection integrating machine learning and combinatorial optimization. The framework is tailored for ensemble learning, a strategy that combines the outputs of individually pre-trained models, and learns to select appropriate ensemble members for a particular input sample by transforming the ensemble learning task into a differentiable selection program trained end-to-end within the ensemble learning model. Tested on various tasks, the proposed framework demonstrates its versatility and effectiveness, outperforming conventional and advanced consensus rules across a variety of settings and learning tasks.

We consider learning in an adversarial Markov Decision Process (MDP) where the loss functions can change arbitrarily over K episodes and the state space can be arbitrarily large. We assume that the Q-function of any policy is linear in some known features, that is, a linear function approximation exists. The best existing regret upper bound for this setting (Luo et al., 2021) is of order mathcal O(K^{2/3}) (omitting all other dependencies), given access to a simulator. This paper provides two algorithms that improve the regret to mathcal O(sqrt K) in the same setting. Our first algorithm makes use of a refined analysis of the Follow-the-Regularized-Leader (FTRL) algorithm with the log-barrier regularizer. This analysis allows the loss estimators to be arbitrarily negative and might be of independent interest. Our second algorithm develops a magnitude-reduced loss estimator, further removing the polynomial dependency on the number of actions in the first algorithm and leading to the optimal regret bound (up to logarithmic terms and dependency on the horizon). Moreover, we also extend the first algorithm to simulator-free linear MDPs, which achieves mathcal O(K^{8/9}) regret and greatly improves over the best existing bound mathcal O(K^{14/15}). This algorithm relies on a better alternative to the Matrix Geometric Resampling procedure by Neu & Olkhovskaya (2020), which could again be of independent interest.

Mixture of experts (MoE) has a well-principled finite mixture model construction for prediction, allowing the gating network (mixture weights) to learn from the predictors (explanatory variables) together with the experts' network (mixture component densities). We investigate the estimation properties of MoEs in a high-dimensional setting, where the number of predictors is much larger than the sample size, for which the literature lacks computational and especially theoretical results. We consider the class of finite MoE models with softmax gating functions and Gaussian regression experts, and focus on the theoretical properties of their l_1-regularized estimation via the Lasso. We provide a lower bound on the regularization parameter of the Lasso penalty that ensures an l_1-oracle inequality is satisfied by the Lasso estimator according to the Kullback--Leibler loss. We further state an l_1-ball oracle inequality for the l_1-penalized maximum likelihood estimator from the model selection.

We characterize the statistical efficiency of knowledge transfer through n samples from a teacher to a probabilistic student classifier with input space mathcal S over labels mathcal A. We show that privileged information at three progressive levels accelerates the transfer. At the first level, only samples with hard labels are known, via which the maximum likelihood estimator attains the minimax rate {|{mathcal S||{mathcal A}|}/{n}}. The second level has the teacher probabilities of sampled labels available in addition, which turns out to boost the convergence rate lower bound to {{|{mathcal S}||{mathcal A}|}/{n}}. However, under this second data acquisition protocol, minimizing a naive adaptation of the cross-entropy loss results in an asymptotically biased student. We overcome this limitation and achieve the fundamental limit by using a novel empirical variant of the squared error logit loss. The third level further equips the student with the soft labels (complete logits) on {mathcal A} given every sampled input, thereby provably enables the student to enjoy a rate {|{mathcal S}|}/{n} free of |{mathcal A}|. We find any Kullback-Leibler divergence minimizer to be optimal in the last case. Numerical simulations distinguish the four learners and corroborate our theory.

As post-training processes utilize increasingly large datasets and base models continue to grow in size, the computational demands and implementation challenges of existing algorithms are escalating significantly. In this paper, we propose modeling the changes at the logits level during post-training using a separate neural network (i.e., the value network). After training this network on a small base model using demonstrations, this network can be seamlessly integrated with other pre-trained models during inference, enables them to achieve similar capability enhancements. We systematically investigate the best practices for this paradigm in terms of pre-training weights and connection schemes. We demonstrate that the resulting value network has broad transferability across pre-trained models of different parameter sizes within the same family, models undergoing continuous pre-training within the same family, and models with different vocabularies across families. In certain cases, it can achieve performance comparable to full-parameter fine-tuning. Furthermore, we explore methods to enhance the transferability of the value model and prevent overfitting to the base model used during training.

Generations from large language models (LLMs) can be improved by sampling and scoring multiple solutions to select a final answer. Current "sample and select" methods such as self-consistency (SC) rely on majority voting to score answers. However, when tasks have many distinct and valid answers, selection by voting requires a large number of samples. This makes SC prohibitively expensive for interactive tasks that involve generating multiple actions (answers) sequentially. After establishing that majority voting fails to provide consistent gains on such tasks, we demonstrate how to increase success rates by softening the scoring criterion. We introduce Soft Self-Consistency (SOFT-SC), which replaces SC's discontinuous scoring with a continuous score computed from model likelihoods, allowing for selection even when actions are sparsely distributed. SOFT-SC improves both performance and efficiency on long-horizon interactive tasks, requiring half as many samples as SC for comparable or better performance. For a fixed number of samples, SOFT-SC leads to a 1.3% increase over SC in absolute success rate on writing bash programs, a 6.6% increase on online shopping (WebShop), and a 4.7% increase for an interactive household game (ALFWorld). Finally, we show that SOFT-SC can be applied to both open-source and black-box models.

Various XAI attribution methods have been recently proposed for the transformer architecture, allowing for insights into the decision-making process of large language models by assigning importance scores to input tokens and intermediate representations. One class of methods that seems very promising in this direction includes decomposition-based approaches, i.e., XAI-methods that redistribute the model's prediction logit through the network, as this value is directly related to the prediction. In the previous literature we note though that two prominent methods of this category, namely ALTI-Logit and LRP, have not yet been analyzed in juxtaposition and hence we propose to close this gap by conducting a careful quantitative evaluation w.r.t. ground truth annotations on a subject-verb agreement task, as well as various qualitative inspections, using BERT, GPT-2 and LLaMA-3 as a testbed. Along the way we compare and extend the ALTI-Logit and LRP methods, including the recently proposed AttnLRP variant, from an algorithmic and implementation perspective. We further incorporate in our benchmark two widely-used gradient-based attribution techniques. Finally, we make our carefullly constructed benchmark dataset for evaluating attributions on language models, as well as our code, publicly available in order to foster evaluation of XAI-methods on a well-defined common ground.

Improvements in language models are often driven by improving the quality of the data we train them on, which can be limiting when strong supervision is scarce. In this work, we show that paired preference data consisting of individually weak data points can enable gains beyond the strength of each individual data point. We formulate the delta learning hypothesis to explain this phenomenon, positing that the relative quality delta between points suffices to drive learning via preference tuning--even when supervised finetuning on the weak data hurts. We validate our hypothesis in controlled experiments and at scale, where we post-train 8B models on preference data generated by pairing a small 3B model's responses with outputs from an even smaller 1.5B model to create a meaningful delta. Strikingly, on a standard 11-benchmark evaluation suite (MATH, MMLU, etc.), our simple recipe matches the performance of Tulu 3, a state-of-the-art open model tuned from the same base model while relying on much stronger supervisors (e.g., GPT-4o). Thus, delta learning enables simpler and cheaper open recipes for state-of-the-art post-training. To better understand delta learning, we prove in logistic regression that the performance gap between two weak teacher models provides useful signal for improving a stronger student. Overall, our work shows that models can learn surprisingly well from paired data that might typically be considered weak.

It is widely believed that given the same labeling budget, active learning (AL) algorithms like margin-based active learning achieve better predictive performance than passive learning (PL), albeit at a higher computational cost. Recent empirical evidence suggests that this added cost might be in vain, as margin-based AL can sometimes perform even worse than PL. While existing works offer different explanations in the low-dimensional regime, this paper shows that the underlying mechanism is entirely different in high dimensions: we prove for logistic regression that PL outperforms margin-based AL even for noiseless data and when using the Bayes optimal decision boundary for sampling. Insights from our proof indicate that this high-dimensional phenomenon is exacerbated when the separation between the classes is small. We corroborate this intuition with experiments on 20 high-dimensional datasets spanning a diverse range of applications, from finance and histology to chemistry and computer vision.

Large Language Models (LLMs), such as the GPT-4 and LLaMA families, have demonstrated considerable success across diverse tasks, including multiple-choice questions (MCQs). However, these models exhibit a positional bias, particularly an even worse anchored bias in the GPT-2 family, where they consistently favour the first choice 'A' in MCQs during inference. This anchored bias challenges the integrity of GPT-2's decision-making process, as it skews performance based on the position rather than the content of the choices in MCQs. In this study, we utilise the mechanistic interpretability approach to identify the internal modules within GPT-2 models responsible for this bias. We focus on the Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) layers and attention heads, using the "logit lens" method to trace and modify the specific value vectors that contribute to the bias. By updating these vectors within MLP and recalibrating attention patterns to neutralise the preference for the first choice 'A', we effectively mitigate the anchored bias. Our interventions not only mitigate the bias but also improve the overall MCQ prediction accuracy for the GPT-2 family across various datasets. This work represents the first comprehensive mechanistic analysis of anchored bias in MCQs within the GPT-2 models, introducing targeted, minimal-intervention strategies that significantly enhance GPT2 model robustness and accuracy in MCQs. Our code is available at https://github.com/ruizheliUOA/Anchored_Bias_GPT2.

Age-specific mortality improvements are non-uniform, neither across ages nor across time. We propose a two-step procedure to estimate the rates of mortality improvement (RMI) in age-specific death rates (ASDR) at ages 85 and above for ten European countries from 1950 to 2019. In the first step, we smooth the raw death counts and estimate ASDR using four different methods: one parametric (gamma-Gompertz-Makeham), two non-parametric (P-splines and PCLM), and a novel Bayesian procedure to handle fluctuations resulting from ages with zero death counts. We compare the goodness of fit of the four smoothing methods and calculate the year-to-year ASDR differences according to the best-fitting one. We fit a piecewise linear function to these differences in the second step. The slope in each linear segment captures the average RMI in the respective year range. For each age, we calculate the goodness of fit in the last linear segment to assess how informative the estimated RMI of current mortality change is. The estimated rates of mortality improvement or deterioration (RMI) can be used to make short-term social, health, and social planning, as well as more precise mortality forecasts.