Daily Papers

Sofroniew et al. (2026) report that emotion concepts in Claude Sonnet 4.5 are represented as vectors whose geometry mirrors human affect psychology. We replicate the representational core of that study on the base pretrained model google/gemma-2-27b, inheriting every disclosed parameter, resolving unspecified steps by disclosed rules, and changing only the subject model. From 205,200 newly generated Claude Sonnet 4.5 stories matching the original corpus design, we extract 171 emotion vectors and recover the core results. The leading principal components form an affective circumplex (PC1 carries 26.7% of variance against the original study's ~27%, PC2 13.4% against ~14%), emotions cluster into similar intuitive families, and the geometry holds across a broad late-middle band. The valence axis aligns with human norms (r = 0.72, against 0.81) and is stable across scales and depth. Arousal aligns at r = 0.67 (against 0.66) but only at the full 171-emotion scale and late depth, so we do not classify it as replicated. Extending the original analysis, a 46-layer sweep locates a sharp seam at L22-26, where the geometry consolidates and the vocabulary readout becomes legible. An embedding-layer baseline finds much of the geometry already present in the static token embeddings, with arousal as the exception. On top-activating held-out text, the geometry predicts token-level co-activation at r = 0.907. At least 52% of vectors peak on structurally non-conceptual tokens, a measured floor for max-activation confounds. Even when a document contains the vector's emotion word, the peak lands on that word only 6.1% of the time. Because the subject is a base model and the stimuli are Claude-generated fiction, the recovered structure is a property of the pretrained representation of Claude-rendered emotion. The original's causal and assistant-facing analyses are out of scope. Code and data are released.

The dynamic range of activations is a first-order constraint for low-bit quantization, activation scaling, and stable LLM inference. Prior work characterized outlier features and massive activations on pre-2024 LLaMA-style models, and the downstream activation-quantization stack inherits that picture without revisiting it for the post-LLaMA open-model boom. We ask the deployment-oriented question: how large can activations get in modern open LLMs, and how does this magnitude vary across families, generations, and training stages? Under a unified pipeline (5,000-sample multi-domain corpus, family-specific tokenization, identical hooks across embeddings, hidden states, attention, MLP/MoE, SwiGLU gates, and final norm), we measure global and layerwise maxima on 27 checkpoints from 8 open families spanning dense, MoE, vision-language, intermediate-training, and instruction-tuned variants. We find that (i) global maxima span over nearly four orders of magnitude at comparable parameter counts, with Qwen3.5 and MoE checkpoints in the 10^2 to 10^3 range and Gemma3-27B-it reaching ~7 x 10^5; (ii) cross-family and cross-generation comparisons break simple monotonic scaling; and (iii) MoE checkpoints exhibit 14.0-23.4x lower peaks than matched-scale dense counterparts, while the residual stream carries the global maximum in 22/24 checkpoints. A lightweight INT-8 sanity check shows that measured maxima co-vary with low-bit reconstruction error via activation-scale selection. We conclude that maximum activation magnitude is a model property tied to family, architecture, and training stage - not a simple byproduct of size - and should be measured and reported alongside any open-weight release before low-bit deployment. The code is publicly available at https://github.com/clx1415926/Max_act_llm.

Context can change whether a request is harmful without changing its topic or surface form. We ask whether residual-stream probes distinguish harmful requests from surface-matched benign controls at a useful operating point. Across three 7-8B model families, an activation sensor blocks 95.5-97.7 percent of judge-classified compliant attacks in a taxonomy-selected set. It also blocks 59.6-68.4 percent of XSTest prompts. A fully disjoint audit reconstructs near-ceiling source-contrast AUROC (0.996-0.999), but fixed transfer to matched pairs is weaker: 0.656-0.819 on the guard-selected Twin-n70 subset and 0.590-0.690 on the full Twin-n163 cohort. We test ten axes on the reference family and seven across all families with leakage, hold-out, and permutation controls. On Twin-n163, no axis evaluated without direct pair-boundary fitting reaches the specified numerical threshold. Requiring persistence on that full cohort was added at analysis time. A separately specified 24B/32B extension gives the same result. Pair-trained classifiers weaken under category and generation-batch hold-out and false-block 79.6-100 percent of XSTest at 95 percent in-corpus TPR. At the tested read points, these activation scores behave as broad-risk detectors rather than standalone context adjudicators.

A ubiquitous feature of data of our era is their extra-large sizes and dimensions. Analyzing such high-dimensional data poses significant challenges, since the feature dimension is often much larger than the sample size. This thesis introduces robust and computationally efficient methods to address several common challenges associated with high-dimensional data. In my first manuscript, I propose a coherent approach to variable screening that accommodates nonlinear associations. I develop a novel variable screening method that transcends traditional linear assumptions by leveraging mutual information, with an intended application in neuroimaging data. This approach allows for accurate identification of important variables by capturing nonlinear as well as linear relationships between the outcome and covariates. Building on this foundation, I develop new optimization methods for sparse estimation using nonconvex penalties in my second manuscript. These methods address notable challenges in current statistical computing practices, facilitating computationally efficient and robust analyses of complex datasets. The proposed method can be applied to a general class of optimization problems. In my third manuscript, I contribute to robust modeling of high-dimensional correlated observations by developing a mixed-effects model based on Tsallis power-law entropy maximization and discussed the theoretical properties of such distribution. This model surpasses the constraints of conventional Gaussian models by accommodating a broader class of distributions with enhanced robustness to outliers. Additionally, I develop a proximal nonlinear conjugate gradient algorithm that accelerates convergence while maintaining numerical stability, along with rigorous statistical properties for the proposed framework.

Activation Oracles (AOs) are promising methods for interpreting residual stream activations. However, current AOs face important issues, such as hallucinations and vagueness. Additionally, text-inversion confounds make them hard to evaluate. To this end, we improve the Activation Oracle (AO) training regime in four ways: training on on-policy rollouts, improving the conversational dataset, feeding more layers and an improvement to the injection formula. The capability improvements are marginal, but quality of life improvements are quite substantial. In addition, we open source the first comprehensive evaluation suite for AO quality, which we call AObench. Overall, we hope that our work sets a foundation that helps improve AOs and other models in the paradigm of scalable, end-to-end interpretability.

Motivated in part by their relevance for low-precision training and quantization, massive activations in large language models (LLMs) have recently emerged as a topic of interest. However, existing analyses are limited in scope, and generalizability across architectures is unclear. This paper helps address some of these gaps by conducting an analysis of massive activations across a broad range of LLMs, including both GLU-based and non-GLU-based architectures. Our findings challenge several prior assumptions, most importantly: (1) not all massive activations are detrimental, i.e. suppressing them does not lead to an explosion of perplexity or a collapse in downstream task performance; (2) proposed mitigation strategies such as Attention KV bias are model-specific and ineffective in certain cases. We consequently investigate novel hybrid mitigation strategies; in particular pairing Target Variance Rescaling (TVR) with Attention KV bias or Dynamic Tanh (DyT) successfully balances the mitigation of massive activations with preserved downstream model performance in the scenarios we investigated. Our code is available at: https://github.com/bluorion-com/refine_massive_activations.

Deep neural networks have demonstrated promising performance on image recognition tasks. However, they may heavily rely on confounding factors, using irrelevant artifacts or bias within the dataset as the cue to improve performance. When a model performs decision-making based on these spurious correlations, it can become untrustable and lead to catastrophic outcomes when deployed in the real-world scene. In this paper, we explore and try to solve this problem in the context of skin cancer diagnosis. We introduce a human-in-the-loop framework in the model training process such that users can observe and correct the model's decision logic when confounding behaviors happen. Specifically, our method can automatically discover confounding factors by analyzing the co-occurrence behavior of the samples. It is capable of learning confounding concepts using easily obtained concept exemplars. By mapping the black-box model's feature representation onto an explainable concept space, human users can interpret the concept and intervene via first order-logic instruction. We systematically evaluate our method on our newly crafted, well-controlled skin lesion dataset and several public skin lesion datasets. Experiments show that our method can effectively detect and remove confounding factors from datasets without any prior knowledge about the category distribution and does not require fully annotated concept labels. We also show that our method enables the model to focus on clinical-related concepts, improving the model's performance and trustworthiness during model inference.

In whole slide images (WSIs) analysis, attention-based multi-instance learning (MIL) models are susceptible to spurious correlations and degrade under domain shift. These methods may assign high attention weights to non-tumor regions, such as staining biases or artifacts, leading to unreliable tumor region localization. In this paper, we revisit max-pooling-based MIL methods from a causal perspective. Under mild assumptions, our theoretical results demonstrate that max-pooling encourages the model to focus on causal factors while ignoring bias-related factors. Furthermore, we discover that existing max-pooling-based methods may overfit the training set through rote memorization of instance features and fail to learn meaningful patterns. To address these issues, we propose FocusMIL, which couples max-pooling with an instance-level variational information bottleneck (VIB) to learn compact, predictive latent representations, and employs a multi-bag mini-batch scheme to stabilize optimization. We conduct comprehensive experiments on three real-world datasets and one semi-synthetic dataset. The results show that, by capturing causal factors, FocusMIL exhibits significant advantages in out-of-distribution scenarios and instance-level tumor region localization tasks.

AI evaluation can support the wrong inference when an in-domain benchmark success does not survive distribution shift, or when the benchmark endpoint is entangled with a design factor. We study this problem in CRISPRi perturbation-effect prediction, evaluating a frozen Geneformer representation under a locked, pre-registered protocol: heads and model selection were frozen before test evaluation; the protocol required external outcome labels to remain withheld until final unblinding; and analysis-governing decisions were fixed before the evaluations they govern. In-distribution on the Virtual Cell Challenge (VCC), the frozen representation carries measurable predictive information beyond a dimension-matched random-feature control (Delta R^2 = +0.1645, 95% CI [+0.1375, +0.1920]), satisfying the pre-registered informativeness gate required before interpreting transfer. It then fails zero-shot transfer on both external screens (Spearman rho = -0.139 and -0.267), lying below that control on each. Adding a predefined magnitude block improves the representation externally (Delta rho = +0.032 and +0.143) but, under the frozen primary head, does not rescue transfer: both remain negative. A pre-registered, count-adjusted max-response secondary is positively associated with the outcome on both screens; we report it as correlational and secondary, not as a recovered magnitude signal. Finally, the VCC endpoint is strongly sample-size associated: a count-only linear model reaches R^2 = +0.4325, versus +0.2589 for the four magnitude scalars; adding those scalars to cell count improves R^2 by only +0.0017, so much of the aggregate-magnitude signal overlaps with cell count. This case study shows how locking the evaluation, harmonizing the measured endpoint, and separating primary from secondary evidence can change the inference supported by an AI benchmark.

Unobserved confounding is common in many applications, making causal inference from observational data challenging. As a remedy, causal sensitivity analysis is an important tool to draw causal conclusions under unobserved confounding with mathematical guarantees. In this paper, we propose NeuralCSA, a neural framework for generalized causal sensitivity analysis. Unlike previous work, our framework is compatible with (i) a large class of sensitivity models, including the marginal sensitivity model, f-sensitivity models, and Rosenbaum's sensitivity model; (ii) different treatment types (i.e., binary and continuous); and (iii) different causal queries, including (conditional) average treatment effects and simultaneous effects on multiple outcomes. The generality of \frameworkname is achieved by learning a latent distribution shift that corresponds to a treatment intervention using two conditional normalizing flows. We provide theoretical guarantees that NeuralCSA is able to infer valid bounds on the causal query of interest and also demonstrate this empirically using both simulated and real-world data.

We observe an empirical phenomenon in Large Language Models (LLMs) -- very few activations exhibit significantly larger values than others (e.g., 100,000 times larger). We call them massive activations. First, we demonstrate the widespread existence of massive activations across various LLMs and characterize their locations. Second, we find their values largely stay constant regardless of the input, and they function as indispensable bias terms in LLMs. Third, these massive activations lead to the concentration of attention probabilities to their corresponding tokens, and further, implicit bias terms in the self-attention output. Last, we also study massive activations in Vision Transformers. Code is available at https://github.com/locuslab/massive-activations.

Biosecurity evaluations of language models typically ask whether models produce hazardous output. This paper asks a complementary question: when a model refuses, is that refusal structurally sound, or does it disappear under modest changes to prompt framing, formatting, or output length? Across five architectures, no model cleanly discriminated benign from hazard. Gemma 2 2B-IT never genuinely refused across 75 prompts, hedging on every hazard-adjacent query. Gemma 4 E2B-IT refused 65/75 prompts with chat-template formatting and 0/75 without it. Both Gemma models collapsed to 0% under an 80-token cap. Qwen 2.5 1.5B and Phi-3-mini over-refused, flagging 83-87% of benign biology as hazardous. Llama 3.2 1B showed the only meaningful tier gradient (61-point spread). To probe what drives such over-refusal, we tested a panel of Schedule I but biologically non-toxic compounds (notably psilocybin cultivation, with FDA Breakthrough Therapy status). Some models refused these at rates exceeding genuinely hazardous biology, suggesting refusal tracks legality and cultural salience over CBRN hazard. To measure the internal side, we introduce a divergence score D comparing a model's surface response label to its internal sparse autoencoder (SAE) feature activations. Full D was computed on Gemma 2 2B-IT (Gemma Scope 1) and Gemma 4 E2B-IT (author-trained bio SAE). Two fine-tuned Gemma 2 domain SAEs were released. On Gemma 4, comply and refuse responses separated by a 0.647-point gap with zero overlap (n=75), though this is preliminary, with a narrow catalog, within-sample calibration, and Gemma-family-only SAE coverage. Built over one hackathon weekend on consumer hardware (GTX 1650 Ti Max-Q, plus Colab T4 for SAE training), this preliminary evidence suggests activation-level auditing may surface failure modes invisible to behavioral evaluation, with substantial variation across architectures.

Multi-site neuroimaging analysis is fundamentally confounded by scanner-induced covariate shifts, where the marginal distribution of voxel intensities P(x) varies non-linearly across acquisition protocols while the conditional anatomy P(y|x) remains constant. This is particularly detrimental to radiomic reproducibility, where acquisition variance often exceeds biological pathology variance. Existing statistical harmonization methods (e.g., ComBat) operate in feature space, precluding spatial downstream tasks, while standard deep learning approaches are theoretically bounded by local effective receptive fields (ERF), failing to model the global intensity correlations characteristic of field-strength bias. We propose SA-CycleGAN-2.5D, a domain adaptation framework motivated by the HΔH-divergence bound of Ben-David et al., integrating three architectural innovations: (1) A 2.5D tri-planar manifold injection preserving through-plane gradients nabla_z at O(HW) complexity; (2) A U-ResNet generator with dense voxel-to-voxel self-attention, surpassing the O(L) receptive field limit of CNNs to model global scanner field biases; and (3) A spectrally-normalized discriminator constraining the Lipschitz constant (K_D le 1) for stable adversarial optimization. Evaluated on 654 glioma patients across two institutional domains (BraTS and UPenn-GBM), our method reduces Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD) by 99.1% (1.729 to 0.015) and degrades domain classifier accuracy to near-chance (59.7%). Ablation confirms that global attention is statistically essential (Cohen's d = 1.32, p < 0.001) for the harder heterogeneous-to-homogeneous translation direction. By bridging 2D efficiency and 3D consistency, our framework yields voxel-level harmonized images that preserve tumor pathophysiology, enabling reproducible multi-center radiomic analysis.

Model-internal features can be studied through both their ability to identify a specified concept and their causal effect when manipulated, e.g., through steering or weight editing. A prominent approach to feature learning is Sparse Autoencoders (SAEs), which learn broad feature dictionaries whose relation to particular concepts is typically identified post hoc. However, many interpretability questions are instead hypothesis-driven and concern a concept specified in advance. We study this setting as targeted feature learning, where a single feature is constructed for such a predefined concept. We present a controlled comparison across three model signals (activation values, activation gradients, and parameter gradients) and two estimators (contrastive mean and a learned one-dimensional encoder-decoder), yielding six targeted methods, with CAA and GRADIEND as existing instances and four new methods covering the remaining combinations. We compare these methods against pretrained SAEs across 15 tasks and three language models, evaluating both detection and causal intervention. Across models, the strongest detection performance is achieved by contrastive activation value methods, whereas the strongest intervention performance is achieved by gradient-based methods. Overall, our results show that targeted feature quality depends jointly on the model signal and estimator, with detection and intervention capturing complementary properties.

Sequential trial emulation (STE) estimates the effect of a sustained treatment by stacking nested emulated trials with inverse-probability weighting. Additive-hazards STE estimators of the marginal risk difference recommend the nonparametric bootstrap without evaluating its coverage. Using a correctly-specifiable mechanism (up to a small, disclosed residual), we compare analytic and bootstrap standard errors for both estimands. Exploiting the closed-form linearity of the additive-hazards estimating equation, we derive the influence functions and prove the default row-level robust variance inconsistent for the marginal risk-difference curve, and show the same failure empirically for the constant hazard difference: the row-level variance omits a within-subject cross-trial covariance that is positive under a sign condition we verify across our mechanisms, and is anticonservative at every horizon except the first - only there, where the covariance is zero, is the row-level standard error unimpaired. The subject-clustered variance and multiplier bootstrap are consistent for the fixed-weight linearisation and support simultaneous confidence bands, whose measured coverage is 0.88. Across our simulations the model-based and row-level robust intervals are anticonservative and worsen with sample size, coverage falling to 0.71 at n=5000; clustering leaves the constant-hazard-difference coverage near 0.86 at n=5000, and the multiplier bootstrap leaves the risk-difference-curve coverage near 0.90 (0.86 at the longest horizon). The STE constant hazard difference is a design-weighted summary of a time-varying effect, dependent on the trial structure. We illustrate on the Stanford heart transplant data and provide them in the steCI R package.

Label Smoothing (LS) is widely adopted to curb overconfidence in neural network predictions and enhance generalization. However, previous research shows that LS can force feature representations into excessively tight clusters, eroding intra-class distinctions. More recent findings suggest that LS also induces overconfidence in misclassifications, yet the precise mechanism remained unclear. In this work, we decompose the loss term introduced by LS, revealing two key components: (i) a regularization term that functions only when the prediction is correct, and (ii) an error-enhancement term that emerges under misclassifications. This latter term compels the model to reinforce incorrect predictions with exaggerated certainty, further collapsing the feature space. To address these issues, we propose Max Suppression (MaxSup), which uniformly applies the intended regularization to both correct and incorrect predictions by penalizing the top-1 logit instead of the ground-truth logit. Through feature analyses, we show that MaxSup restores intra-class variation and sharpens inter-class boundaries. Extensive experiments on image classification and downstream tasks confirm that MaxSup is a more robust alternative to LS. Code is available at: https://github.com/ZhouYuxuanYX/Maximum-Suppression-Regularization.

Activation Patching is a method of directly computing causal attributions of behavior to model components. However, applying it exhaustively requires a sweep with cost scaling linearly in the number of model components, which can be prohibitively expensive for SoTA Large Language Models (LLMs). We investigate Attribution Patching (AtP), a fast gradient-based approximation to Activation Patching and find two classes of failure modes of AtP which lead to significant false negatives. We propose a variant of AtP called AtP*, with two changes to address these failure modes while retaining scalability. We present the first systematic study of AtP and alternative methods for faster activation patching and show that AtP significantly outperforms all other investigated methods, with AtP* providing further significant improvement. Finally, we provide a method to bound the probability of remaining false negatives of AtP* estimates.

Pathology Foundation Models (FMs) hold great promise for healthcare. Before they can be used in clinical practice, it is essential to ensure they are robust to variations between medical centers. We measure whether pathology FMs focus on biological features like tissue and cancer type, or on the well known confounding medical center signatures introduced by staining procedure and other differences. We introduce the Robustness Index. This novel robustness metric reflects to what degree biological features dominate confounding features. Ten current publicly available pathology FMs are evaluated. We find that all current pathology foundation models evaluated represent the medical center to a strong degree. Significant differences in the robustness index are observed. Only one model so far has a robustness index greater than one, meaning biological features dominate confounding features, but only slightly. A quantitative approach to measure the influence of medical center differences on FM-based prediction performance is described. We analyze the impact of unrobustness on classification performance of downstream models, and find that cancer-type classification errors are not random, but specifically attributable to same-center confounders: images of other classes from the same medical center. We visualize FM embedding spaces, and find these are more strongly organized by medical centers than by biological factors. As a consequence, the medical center of origin is predicted more accurately than the tissue source and cancer type. The robustness index introduced here is provided with the aim of advancing progress towards clinical adoption of robust and reliable pathology FMs.

Mechanistic interpretability has emerged as the primary means to understand safety behavior of LLMs. However, existing tools primarily focus on the activating neurons or features of a model. The role of the remaining large set of inactive components is invisible to such methods. This work demonstrates that the inactive set contains safety-critical features that are causally relevant for refusal of harmful prompts. Suppressing such features could turn refusals into compliance, while passing undetected by prevalent interpretability tools. We introduce the Counterfactual Activation Potential (CAP), a metric that quantifies a suppressed feature's latent activation tendency as the product of its encoder alignment (how strongly the input drives it), suppression strength (how strongly active features inhibit it), and safety criticality (how much refusal depends on it). To find suppressed safety features at scale, we propose CAP-guided Safety Feature Discovery (CSFD), a two-stage filtering algorithm that identifies candidate safety features from hundreds of thousands of transcoder features without exhaustive ablation. A significant fraction of trials turn compliant with harmful prompts when a candidate feature is ablated. Under natural jailbreaks, the suppression acting on the highest-CAP features rises 2-4x, and their activation correspondingly falls by up to 80%. Amplifying a feature's suppressors pushes its activation down and raises harmful compliance with prompts related to the suppressed feature, with no such effect for random features. Our experiments span five Gemma, Qwen, and Llama models across various parameter sizes. Our findings indicate that jailbreaks could operate in part by suppressing safety-critical features rather than solely activating harmful ones, and that suppressed features are a necessary complement to activation-focused interpretability of safety behavior.

A major barrier to deploying current machine learning models lies in their non-reliability to dataset shifts. To resolve this problem, most existing studies attempted to transfer stable information to unseen environments. Particularly, independent causal mechanisms-based methods proposed to remove mutable causal mechanisms via the do-operator. Compared to previous methods, the obtained stable predictors are more effective in identifying stable information. However, a key question remains: which subset of this whole stable information should the model transfer, in order to achieve optimal generalization ability? To answer this question, we present a comprehensive minimax analysis from a causal perspective. Specifically, we first provide a graphical condition for the whole stable set to be optimal. When this condition fails, we surprisingly find with an example that this whole stable set, although can fully exploit stable information, is not the optimal one to transfer. To identify the optimal subset under this case, we propose to estimate the worst-case risk with a novel optimization scheme over the intervention functions on mutable causal mechanisms. We then propose an efficient algorithm to search for the subset with minimal worst-case risk, based on a newly defined equivalence relation between stable subsets. Compared to the exponential cost of exhaustively searching over all subsets, our searching strategy enjoys a polynomial complexity. The effectiveness and efficiency of our methods are demonstrated on synthetic data and the diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease.

Fairness for machine learning predictions is widely required in practice for legal, ethical, and societal reasons. Existing work typically focuses on settings without unobserved confounding, even though unobserved confounding can lead to severe violations of causal fairness and, thus, unfair predictions. In this work, we analyze the sensitivity of causal fairness to unobserved confounding. Our contributions are three-fold. First, we derive bounds for causal fairness metrics under different sources of unobserved confounding. This enables practitioners to examine the sensitivity of their machine learning models to unobserved confounding in fairness-critical applications. Second, we propose a novel neural framework for learning fair predictions, which allows us to offer worst-case guarantees of the extent to which causal fairness can be violated due to unobserved confounding. Third, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our framework in a series of experiments, including a real-world case study about predicting prison sentences. To the best of our knowledge, ours is the first work to study causal fairness under unobserved confounding. To this end, our work is of direct practical value as a refutation strategy to ensure the fairness of predictions in high-stakes applications.

Clinical LLMs are often scaled by increasing model size, context length, retrieval complexity, or inference-time compute, with the implicit expectation that higher accuracy implies safer behavior. This assumption is incomplete in medicine, where a few confident, high-risk, or evidence-contradicting errors can matter more than average benchmark performance. We introduce SaFE-Scale, a framework for measuring how clinical LLM safety changes across model scale, evidence quality, retrieval strategy, context exposure, and inference-time compute. To instantiate this framework, we introduce RadSaFE-200, a Radiology Safety-Focused Evaluation benchmark of 200 multiple-choice questions with clinician-defined clean evidence, conflict evidence, and option-level labels for high-risk error, unsafe answer, and evidence contradiction. We evaluated 34 locally deployed LLMs across six deployment conditions: closed-book prompting (zero-shot), clean evidence, conflict evidence, standard RAG, agentic RAG, and max-context prompting. Clean evidence produced the strongest improvement, increasing mean accuracy from 73.5% to 94.1%, while reducing high-risk error from 12.0% to 2.6%, contradiction from 12.7% to 2.3%, and dangerous overconfidence from 8.0% to 1.6%. Standard RAG and agentic RAG did not reproduce this safety profile: agentic RAG improved accuracy over standard RAG and reduced contradiction, but high-risk error and dangerous overconfidence remained elevated. Max-context prompting increased latency without closing the safety gap, and additional inference-time compute produced only limited gains. Worst-case analysis showed that clinically consequential errors concentrated in a small subset of questions. Clinical LLM safety is therefore not a passive consequence of scaling, but a deployment property shaped by evidence quality, retrieval design, context construction, and collective failure behavior.

Objective: fMRI and derived measures such as functional connectivity (FC) have been used to predict brain age, general fluid intelligence, psychiatric disease status, and preclinical neurodegenerative disease. However, it is not always clear that all demographic confounds, such as age, sex, and race, have been removed from fMRI data. Additionally, many fMRI datasets are restricted to authorized researchers, making dissemination of these valuable data sources challenging. Methods: We create a variational autoencoder (VAE)-based model, DemoVAE, to decorrelate fMRI features from demographics and generate high-quality synthetic fMRI data based on user-supplied demographics. We train and validate our model using two large, widely used datasets, the Philadelphia Neurodevelopmental Cohort (PNC) and Bipolar and Schizophrenia Network for Intermediate Phenotypes (BSNIP). Results: We find that DemoVAE recapitulates group differences in fMRI data while capturing the full breadth of individual variations. Significantly, we also find that most clinical and computerized battery fields that are correlated with fMRI data are not correlated with DemoVAE latents. An exception are several fields related to schizophrenia medication and symptom severity. Conclusion: Our model generates fMRI data that captures the full distribution of FC better than traditional VAE or GAN models. We also find that most prediction using fMRI data is dependent on correlation with, and prediction of, demographics. Significance: Our DemoVAE model allows for generation of high quality synthetic data conditioned on subject demographics as well as the removal of the confounding effects of demographics. We identify that FC-based prediction tasks are highly influenced by demographic confounds.

Causal sensitivity analysis aims to provide bounds for causal effect estimates in the presence of unobserved confounding. However, existing methods for causal sensitivity analysis are per-instance procedures, meaning that changes to the dataset, causal query, sensitivity level, or treatment require new computation. Here, we instead present an in-context learning approach. Specifically, we propose an amortized approach to causal sensitivity analysis based on prior-data fitted networks. A key challenge is that the sensitivity bounds are not directly available when sampling training data. To address this, we develop a general prior-data construction that is applicable across the class of generalized treatment sensitivity models. Our construction involves a Lagrangian scalarization of the objective to generate training labels for the bounds through a tradeoff between causal effect min/max-imization and sensitivity model violation, which avoids model-specific analytical derivations. We further show that, under standard convexity and linearity conditions, our objective recovers the full Pareto frontier of solutions. Empirically, we demonstrate our amortized approach across various datasets, causal queries, and sensitivity levels, where our approach achieves a test-time computation that is orders of magnitude faster than per-instance methods. To the best of our knowledge, ours is the first foundation model for in-context learning for causal sensitivity analysis.

Massive activations, residual-stream coordinates with magnitudes far larger than typical activations, are associated with attention sinks in transformers, but how their scale is regulated during training remains incompletely understood. Combining training-trajectory analyses and controlled interventions, we trace their emergence, growth, and consolidation. Sink-carrying channels vary across random seeds but stabilize early within each run. Over longer training, surrounding channels erode and the sink concentrates onto a few redundant carriers. Across ablations, gradient attenuation follows the sink token's collective root-mean-square magnitude rather than any single channel, making collective scale central to understanding their effects. Our central result is that weight decay causally controls the turnover of global activation scale. In controlled continuations, removing decay near the peak allows this scale to keep rising, whereas retaining it produces decline even at constant learning rate. We develop a balance model for the rise and peak of massive-activation magnitude, in which AdamW-preconditioned growth opposes weight decay. Sweeping the decay coefficient λ shifts peak timing approximately log-linearly and yields peak magnitudes scaling approximately as λ^{-1/2}, consistent with this balance. Optimizer measurements further show that preconditioning sustains the large-channel cohort against decay even when raw maintaining forces are too small to do so. Together, these findings connect the observed life cycle to scale-regulating training dynamics and establish weight decay as a training-time lever on activation magnitude.

Massive activations are scalar values in transformer hidden states that achieve values orders of magnitude larger than typical activations and have been shown to be critical for model functionality. While prior work has characterized these phenomena in fully trained models, the temporal dynamics of their emergence during training remain poorly understood. We present the first comprehensive analysis of massive activation development throughout transformer training, using the Pythia model family as our testbed. Through systematic analysis of various model sizes across multiple training checkpoints, we demonstrate that massive activation emergence follows predictable mathematical patterns that can be accurately modeled using an exponentially-modulated logarithmic function with five key parameters. We develop a machine learning framework to predict these mathematical parameters from architectural specifications alone, achieving high accuracy for steady-state behavior and moderate accuracy for emergence timing and magnitude. These findings enable architects to predict and potentially control key aspects of massive activation emergence through design choices, with significant implications for model stability, training cycle length, interpretability, and optimization. Our findings demonstrate that the emergence of massive activations is governed by model design and can be anticipated, and potentially controlled, before training begins.

Causal inference plays a vital role in diverse domains like epidemiology, healthcare, and economics. De-confounding and counterfactual prediction in observational data has emerged as a prominent concern in causal inference research. While existing models tackle observed confounders, the presence of unobserved confounders remains a significant challenge, distorting causal inference and impacting counterfactual outcome accuracy. To address this, we propose a novel variational learning model of unobserved confounders for counterfactual inference (VLUCI), which generates the posterior distribution of unobserved confounders. VLUCI relaxes the unconfoundedness assumption often overlooked by most causal inference methods. By disentangling observed and unobserved confounders, VLUCI constructs a doubly variational inference model to approximate the distribution of unobserved confounders, which are used for inferring more accurate counterfactual outcomes. Extensive experiments on synthetic and semi-synthetic datasets demonstrate VLUCI's superior performance in inferring unobserved confounders. It is compatible with state-of-the-art counterfactual inference models, significantly improving inference accuracy at both group and individual levels. Additionally, VLUCI provides confidence intervals for counterfactual outcomes, aiding decision-making in risk-sensitive domains. We further clarify the considerations when applying VLUCI to cases where unobserved confounders don't strictly conform to our model assumptions using the public IHDP dataset as an example, highlighting the practical advantages of VLUCI.

Activation sparsity denotes the existence of substantial weakly-contributed elements within activation outputs that can be eliminated, benefiting many important applications concerned with large language models (LLMs). Although promoting greater activation sparsity within LLMs deserves deep studies, existing works lack comprehensive and quantitative research on the correlation between activation sparsity and potentially influential factors. In this paper, we present a comprehensive study on the quantitative scaling properties and influential factors of the activation sparsity within decoder-only Transformer-based LLMs. Specifically, we propose PPL-p% sparsity, a precise and performance-aware activation sparsity metric that is applicable to any activation function. Through extensive experiments, we find several important phenomena. Firstly, different activation functions exhibit comparable performance but opposite training-time sparsity trends. The activation ratio (i.e., 1-sparsity ratio) evolves as a convergent increasing power-law and decreasing logspace power-law with the amount of training data for SiLU-activated and ReLU-activated LLMs, respectively. These demonstrate that ReLU is more efficient as the activation function than SiLU and can leverage more training data to improve activation sparsity. Secondly, the activation ratio linearly increases with the width-depth ratio below a certain bottleneck point, indicating the potential advantage of a deeper architecture at a fixed parameter scale. Finally, at similar width-depth ratios, we surprisingly find that the limit value of activation sparsity varies weakly with the parameter scale, i.e., the activation patterns within LLMs are insensitive to the parameter scale. These empirical laws towards LLMs with greater activation sparsity have important implications for making LLMs more efficient and interpretable.

Predicting how a patient's vital signs respond to an intervention is a central question in intensive care. World models can do so by learning dynamics as a function of prior actions. However, such models tend to be brittle outside of training data. Clinicians choose drug dosages based on the patient's state, so the association a model learns between dose and outcome runs opposite to the drug's effect, generalizing poorly to out-of-distribution (OOD) dosing practices. Yet, pharmacological information provides the directional effects of different drugs, which are invariant to OOD shifts. To resolve the OOD sensitivity of current ICU world models, we introduce PHYSIO WORLD, which isolates an intervention's effect by evaluating a forward pass twice: once under recorded doses, and once with those doses set to zero. The difference is projected onto pharmacologically admissible effect directions stated by 70 rules over 28 drugs, leaving the magnitude to be learned from data. Across five distribution-shift parameters over cohorts from three intensive-care databases, and against forecasters, counterfactual models, and invariance objectives, PHYSIO WORLD attains the lowest OOD RMSE in every setting, improving on the strongest external baseline by 8-12%, while matching the in-distribution error of its backbone. Reversing the pharmacological directions degrades accuracy below the backbone, and data-mined directions recover almost no gain, indicating the improvement derives from the content of the pharmacological knowledge. The construction may extend to other settings where the sign of an effect is known in advance and its magnitude is confounded by treatment assignment.

Counterfactual prompting (i.e., perturbing a single factor and measuring output change) is widely used to evaluate things like LLM bias and CoT faithfulness. But in this work we argue that observed effects cannot be attributed to the targeted factor without accounting for baseline ``meaning-preserving'' modifications to text that establish general model sensitivity. This is because every counterfactual edit is a compound treatment that bundles the variable of interest with incidental surface-form variation; this violates treatment variation irrelevance. We observe prediction flip rates on MedQA of 14.9% when we surgically change patient gender. However, this is statistically indistinguishable from the flip rates induced by simply paraphrasing inputs (14.1%). In this case, it would therefore be unwarranted to conclude that the LLM is especially sensitive to patient gender. To account for this and robustly measure the effects of targeted interventions, we propose a framework in which we compare (via statistical testing) differences observed under target interventions to those induced by paraphrasing inputs. We then use this framework to revisit a analysis done on the MedPerturb dataset, which reported evidence of model sensitivity to patient demographics and stylistic cues. We find that these effects largely dissipate when we account for general model sensitivity, with only 5 of 120 tests reaching statistical significance. Applying the same framework to occupational biography classification, we detect clearly significant directional gender bias, showing that the framework identifies real directional effects even when they are small. We evaluate a range of metrics -- aggregate, per-sample distributional, and regression -- and find that per-sample metrics are dramatically more powerful than aggregate metrics and regression powerfully and uniquely characterizes effect direction and magnitude.

We can better understand deep neural networks by identifying which features each of their neurons have learned to detect. To do so, researchers have created Deep Visualization techniques including activation maximization, which synthetically generates inputs (e.g. images) that maximally activate each neuron. A limitation of current techniques is that they assume each neuron detects only one type of feature, but we know that neurons can be multifaceted, in that they fire in response to many different types of features: for example, a grocery store class neuron must activate either for rows of produce or for a storefront. Previous activation maximization techniques constructed images without regard for the multiple different facets of a neuron, creating inappropriate mixes of colors, parts of objects, scales, orientations, etc. Here, we introduce an algorithm that explicitly uncovers the multiple facets of each neuron by producing a synthetic visualization of each of the types of images that activate a neuron. We also introduce regularization methods that produce state-of-the-art results in terms of the interpretability of images obtained by activation maximization. By separately synthesizing each type of image a neuron fires in response to, the visualizations have more appropriate colors and coherent global structure. Multifaceted feature visualization thus provides a clearer and more comprehensive description of the role of each neuron.

Accurate peak detection across diverse cardiac physiological signals, including the Electrocardiogram (ECG), Photoplethysmogram (PPG), Ballistocardiogram (BCG), and Bodyseismography (BSG), is fundamental for cardiovascular monitoring but is often hindered by artifacts and signal variability. Conventional algorithms are typically engineered with expert knowledge for a single signal modality, limiting their generalizability. Conversely, deep learning-based methods often lack interpretability, limiting transparency for expert verification and hindering expert-computer interaction. To address these limitations, we introduce Peak-Detector, a novel framework that leverages instruction-tuned Large Language Models (LLMs) for robust, cross-modal, and explainable peak detection. A core innovation of our framework is a "peak-representation" technique that transforms time-series data into a condensed format, preserving critical event information while significantly reducing signal length. This representation provides a crucial inductive bias, guiding the LLM to reason over physiologically meaningful events rather than raw, noisy data. The model is optimized through a two-stage process: supervised fine-tuning (SFT) followed by reinforcement learning (RL) with a multi-objective reward function. The model's self-explanation capabilities are cultivated by fine-tuning on a custom-built Peak-Explanation dataset. Across four modalities-ECG, PPG, BCG, and BSG-spanning seven datasets (six public benchmarks plus one real-world cohort), Peak-Detector demonstrates strong cross-modal performance, achieving best or tied-best detection under clinically relevant temporal tolerance. Beyond accuracy, the generated rationales surface failure modes and support verification and error analysis.

The activation function plays a crucial role in model optimisation, yet the optimal choice remains unclear. For example, the Sigmoid activation is the de-facto activation in balanced classification tasks, however, in imbalanced classification, it proves inappropriate due to bias towards frequent classes. In this work, we delve deeper in this phenomenon by performing a comprehensive statistical analysis in the classification and intermediate layers of both balanced and imbalanced networks and we empirically show that aligning the activation function with the data distribution, enhances the performance in both balanced and imbalanced tasks. To this end, we propose the Adaptive Parametric Activation (APA) function, a novel and versatile activation function that unifies most common activation functions under a single formula. APA can be applied in both intermediate layers and attention layers, significantly outperforming the state-of-the-art on several imbalanced benchmarks such as ImageNet-LT, iNaturalist2018, Places-LT, CIFAR100-LT and LVIS and balanced benchmarks such as ImageNet1K, COCO and V3DET. The code is available at https://github.com/kostas1515/AGLU.

Deep neural networks (DNNs) have demonstrated state-of-the-art results on many pattern recognition tasks, especially vision classification problems. Understanding the inner workings of such computational brains is both fascinating basic science that is interesting in its own right - similar to why we study the human brain - and will enable researchers to further improve DNNs. One path to understanding how a neural network functions internally is to study what each of its neurons has learned to detect. One such method is called activation maximization (AM), which synthesizes an input (e.g. an image) that highly activates a neuron. Here we dramatically improve the qualitative state of the art of activation maximization by harnessing a powerful, learned prior: a deep generator network (DGN). The algorithm (1) generates qualitatively state-of-the-art synthetic images that look almost real, (2) reveals the features learned by each neuron in an interpretable way, (3) generalizes well to new datasets and somewhat well to different network architectures without requiring the prior to be relearned, and (4) can be considered as a high-quality generative method (in this case, by generating novel, creative, interesting, recognizable images).

Single-cell perturbation atlases rarely measure every intervention in every cellular context: a query perturbation is often observed in one or more source contexts but missing in the recipient context where its effect is needed. Ignoring those measured responses discards query-specific experimental evidence, whereas copying or weakly calibrating them across contexts risks transferring the wrong signal. We propose PerturbMap, which predicts a missing recipient-context effect by combining a recipient-local low-rank base with accepted proposals that transport the same perturbation's measured source responses through source-to-recipient ridge experts fit on paired training perturbations, with proposal weights determined by route reliability estimated on validation anchors. On the Perturb-CITE-seq melanoma cohort, PerturbMap improves full-effect MSE by 4.1\% over a recipient-local low-rank base and achieves lower MSE than FedAvg, zero-response, raw-copy, calibrated-copy, and identity-shuffled affine controls. It remains within 2.82times10^{-6} MSE of our centralized token-matched pooled reference, which uses a stronger training interface. A condition-mean specificity diagnostic shows the same direction: same-recipient top-10 counterpart retrieval by cosine increases from 74.5\% for the low-rank base to 80.5\% for PerturbMap.

Spiking Neural Networks promise brain-inspired and energy-efficient computation by transmitting information through binary (0/1) spikes. Yet, their performance still lags behind that of artificial neural networks, often assumed to result from information loss caused by sparse and binary activations. In this work, we challenge this long-standing assumption and reveal a previously overlooked frequency bias: spiking neurons inherently suppress high-frequency components and preferentially propagate low-frequency information. This frequency-domain imbalance, we argue, is the root cause of degraded feature representation in SNNs. Empirically, on Spiking Transformers, adopting Avg-Pooling (low-pass) for token mixing lowers performance to 76.73% on Cifar-100, whereas replacing it with Max-Pool (high-pass) pushes the top-1 accuracy to 79.12%. Accordingly, we introduce Max-Former that restores high-frequency signals through two frequency-enhancing operators: (1) extra Max-Pool in patch embedding, and (2) Depth-Wise Convolution in place of self-attention. Notably, Max-Former attains 82.39% top-1 accuracy on ImageNet using only 63.99M parameters, surpassing Spikformer (74.81%, 66.34M) by +7.58%. Extending our insight beyond transformers, our Max-ResNet-18 achieves state-of-the-art performance on convolution-based benchmarks: 97.17% on CIFAR-10 and 83.06\% on CIFAR-100. We hope this simple yet effective solution inspires future research to explore the distinctive nature of spiking neural networks. Code is available: https://github.com/bic-L/MaxFormer.

A prominent challenge of offline reinforcement learning (RL) is the issue of hidden confounding: unobserved variables may influence both the actions taken by the agent and the observed outcomes. Hidden confounding can compromise the validity of any causal conclusion drawn from data and presents a major obstacle to effective offline RL. In the present paper, we tackle the problem of hidden confounding in the nonidentifiable setting. We propose a definition of uncertainty due to hidden confounding bias, termed delphic uncertainty, which uses variation over world models compatible with the observations, and differentiate it from the well-known epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties. We derive a practical method for estimating the three types of uncertainties, and construct a pessimistic offline RL algorithm to account for them. Our method does not assume identifiability of the unobserved confounders, and attempts to reduce the amount of confounding bias. We demonstrate through extensive experiments and ablations the efficacy of our approach on a sepsis management benchmark, as well as on electronic health records. Our results suggest that nonidentifiable hidden confounding bias can be mitigated to improve offline RL solutions in practice.

A neuroscience method to understanding the brain is to find and study the preferred stimuli that highly activate an individual cell or groups of cells. Recent advances in machine learning enable a family of methods to synthesize preferred stimuli that cause a neuron in an artificial or biological brain to fire strongly. Those methods are known as Activation Maximization (AM) or Feature Visualization via Optimization. In this chapter, we (1) review existing AM techniques in the literature; (2) discuss a probabilistic interpretation for AM; and (3) review the applications of AM in debugging and explaining networks.

State-of-the-art methods for conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimation make widespread use of representation learning. Here, the idea is to reduce the variance of the low-sample CATE estimation by a (potentially constrained) low-dimensional representation. However, low-dimensional representations can lose information about the observed confounders and thus lead to bias, because of which the validity of representation learning for CATE estimation is typically violated. In this paper, we propose a new, representation-agnostic framework for estimating bounds on the representation-induced confounding bias that comes from dimensionality reduction (or other constraints on the representations) in CATE estimation. First, we establish theoretically under which conditions CATEs are non-identifiable given low-dimensional (constrained) representations. Second, as our remedy, we propose to perform partial identification of CATEs or, equivalently, aim at estimating of lower and upper bounds of the representation-induced confounding bias. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our bounds in a series of experiments. In sum, our framework is of direct relevance in practice where the validity of CATE estimation is of importance.

Humans are prone to cognitive distortions -- biased thinking patterns that lead to exaggerated responses to specific stimuli, albeit in very different contexts. This paper demonstrates that advanced Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) exhibit similar tendencies. While these models are designed to respond queries under safety mechanism, they sometimes reject harmless queries in the presence of certain visual stimuli, disregarding the benign nature of their contexts. As the initial step in investigating this behavior, we identify three types of stimuli that trigger the oversensitivity of existing MLLMs: Exaggerated Risk, Negated Harm, and Counterintuitive Interpretation. To systematically evaluate MLLMs' oversensitivity to these stimuli, we propose the Multimodal OverSenSitivity Benchmark (MOSSBench). This toolkit consists of 300 manually collected benign multimodal queries, cross-verified by third-party reviewers (AMT). Empirical studies using MOSSBench on 20 MLLMs reveal several insights: (1). Oversensitivity is prevalent among SOTA MLLMs, with refusal rates reaching up to 76% for harmless queries. (2). Safer models are more oversensitive: increasing safety may inadvertently raise caution and conservatism in the model's responses. (3). Different types of stimuli tend to cause errors at specific stages -- perception, intent reasoning, and safety judgement -- in the response process of MLLMs. These findings highlight the need for refined safety mechanisms that balance caution with contextually appropriate responses, improving the reliability of MLLMs in real-world applications. We make our project available at https://turningpoint-ai.github.io/MOSSBench/.

Saliency maps are increasingly used as design guidance in siRNA efficacy prediction, yet attribution methods are rarely validated before motivating sequence edits. We introduce a pre-synthesis gate: a protocol for counterfactual sensitivity faithfulness that tests whether mutating high-saliency positions changes model output more than composition-matched controls. Cross-dataset transfer reveals two failure modes that would otherwise go undetected: faithful-but-wrong (saliency valid, predictions fail) and inverted saliency (top-saliency edits less impactful than random). Strikingly, models trained on mRNA-level assays collapse on a luciferase reporter dataset, demonstrating that protocol shifts can silently invalidate deployment. Across four benchmarks, 19/20 fold instances pass; the single failure shows inverted saliency. A biology-informed regularizer (BioPrior) strengthens saliency faithfulness with modest, dataset-dependent predictive trade-offs. Our results establish saliency validation as essential pre-deployment practice for explanation-guided therapeutic design. Code is available at https://github.com/shadi97kh/BioPrior.

Population-level behavior in large-language-model (LLM) agents cannot be characterized by single-agent benchmarks. We introduce PV-SST, a peer-voted social-platform testbed, and report a separately frozen, preregistered matched-exposure experiment spanning four topics, four unused seeds, four open-weight model families, and three prespecified larger variants. The experiment comprises 448 trials and 112 complete model-by-topic-by-seed blocks. Relative to a topic-only control, a feed of previous-round peer posts ranked by peer-generated likes increases final-round lexical similarity in both the four-family core panel (paired mean difference +0.0082 TF-IDF cosine units, 95% block-bootstrap CI [0.0043, 0.0121], randomization p=0.000105, n=64 blocks) and the three-variant size extension (+0.0109 [0.0069, 0.0151], p=0.000001, n=48). This contrast bundles peer-post exposure with ranking and therefore does not identify a ranking-only effect. Opposite-side survival falls in the core panel (-3.9 percentage points [-6.8, -1.6], p=0.0068) but not conclusively in the larger variants (-1.0 pp [-3.1, 0.4], p=0.50). Holding adversarial impressions fixed, four distributed sources do not reliably move honest-agent stance more than one source. The preregistered distributed-minus-single contrast is positive but inconclusive in the core panel (+0.057 [-0.009, 0.125], p=0.112) and negative in the larger variants (-0.040 [-0.113, 0.035], p=0.332), failing the prespecified cross-model and cross-topic consistency criterion. Thus the robust result is lexical convergence under the tested peer-ranked feed, not general opinion capture or a general coordination advantage. The study evaluates synthetic LLM-agent populations; it does not estimate effects on people or production platforms.

Out-of-distribution (OOD) detection is critical to building reliable machine learning systems in the open world. Researchers have proposed various strategies to reduce model overconfidence on OOD data. Among them, ReAct is a typical and effective technique to deal with model overconfidence, which truncates high activations to increase the gap between in-distribution and OOD. Despite its promising results, is this technique the best choice for widening the gap? To answer this question, we leverage the variational method to find the optimal operation and verify the necessity of suppressing abnormally low and high activations and amplifying intermediate activations in OOD detection, rather than focusing only on high activations like ReAct. This motivates us to propose a novel technique called ``Variational Rectified Activation (VRA)'', which simulates these suppression and amplification operations using piecewise functions. Experimental results on multiple benchmark datasets demonstrate that our method outperforms existing post-hoc strategies. Meanwhile, VRA is compatible with different scoring functions and network architectures. \textcolor[rgb]{0.93,0.0,0.47}{Our code can be found in Supplementary Material}.

AI virtual cells aim to predict cellular responses to specified interventions, yet held-out predictive performance alone does not establish use of the supplied perturbation information. This prediction-claim gap matters in agentic model discovery, where language-model agents generate and revise predictors using score-based feedback. We introduce CELLAUDIT, which audits input-use claims by asking whether an input can enter the cited computation, whether fitted predictions depend on it, and whether that dependence improves prediction of observed response. On a paired morphology-transcriptomics perturbation benchmark (BBBC047), an agent-selected predictor attains a mean held-out Global Pearson correlation coefficient (PCC) of 0.3153 but remains invariant to compound replacement; a control-profile-only predictor reaches 0.3142. Source inspection identifies a compound-query pathway blocked by singleton key-value attention, and the invariance persists after refitting with disjoint control wells. In a stratified audit of 48 candidates across two linked tasks, 47 change predictions under compound replacement on both held-out folds, but only 20 show target-loss gains with intervals above zero on both folds. On BBBC047, falsification-guided revisions recover positive mean compound contributions while retaining gains over the control-profile-only baseline. In matched sci-Plex searches, audit-enriched feedback yields higher held-out performance and larger mean compound and dose contributions across five trajectories, although paired intervals span zero. Refitting fixed designs on an independently acquired cohort shows predictive generalization need not imply generalization of input-use claims: dose contribution persists, whereas support for compound identity does not. CELLAUDIT adds a falsification layer to agentic model discovery, moving from generate-score-revise toward discover-falsify-revise.

Background and Objective: Clinicians expect recurrence risk to climb with cancer severity. In a UK multicentre trial, an unconstrained XGBoost model learnt that higher tumour stage and carcinoma in situ predicted lower recurrence risk, and discrimination, calibration, and SHAP were all blind to it. We developed a counterfactual testing framework to detect this inversion and a monotonic-constraint framework to remove it without hurting performance. Methods: BOXIT enrolled 472 patients with protocol-mandated cystoscopy across 51 UK sites (2007-2012); 435 had at least two years' follow-up (153 recurrences, 35.2%). We developed a counterfactual direction test and a monotonic-constraint correction, with constraint directions drawn from the EORTC and EAU risk systems, and evaluated both against unconstrained XGBoost and logistic regression on 18 predictors (seven directed) over 50 cross-validation folds. The test worsened each patient on one directed feature at a time to check whether risk fell; SHAP direction and calibration were also assessed. Key Findings and Limitations: Tumour stage and carcinoma in situ were associated with lower recurrence, opposite to medical intuition; the unconstrained model reversed carcinoma in situ counterfactuals in 90.2% of cases and stage in 74.3%. Discrimination (ΔAUC 0.005, p=0.47), calibration, and SHAP magnitude were all blind to the inversion. Monotonic constraints eliminated every violation at no cost to discrimination (0.723 vs 0.718) and outperformed EORTC (p=8.9e-16). Limitations: single trial, internal-external validation only. Conclusions and Clinical Implications: A model that had learned this inversion passed every conventional check. A counterfactual direction test, run as a single refit with pre-specified monotonic constraints, catches this failure at no cost to performance and should be routine before clinical deployment.

Training-data attribution aims to identify which training examples shape model behavior, yet validating such claims is difficult because causal training influence is rarely observable. We argue that controlled synthetic pretraining makes attribution experimentally testable. Using O'PRIOR, a provenance-rich synthetic task generator for tabular foundation models, we construct a testbed in which every pretraining task carries explicit lineage over structural mechanisms, missingness, confounding, shortcuts, and distribution shift. We combine behavior-conditioned attribution with counterfactual retraining and provenance-aware interventions to test both task-level faithfulness and mechanism-level consistency. On held-out real tasks, removing the top-attributed 5% of synthetic tasks decreases mean ROC-AUC by 0.013, compared with 0.002pm0.004 under random removal, while removing bottom-attributed tasks improves performance by 0.003. Within shortcut-provenance tasks, targeted removal yields an effect of 0.043 versus 0.016 for matched random removal. Provenance discrimination is more modest by ranking AUROC (0.55-0.62), despite substantial top-k enrichment, revealing that provenance association and interventional faithfulness need not coincide. Our results establish synthetic provenance as a controlled setting for verifiable contributive attribution

Single-cell CRISPR screens summarize each perturbation by how far cells move from their unperturbed state, averaging over cell-to-cell variation. Whether the cells moved together is not captured: two perturbations with identical effect magnitude can differ qualitatively, one driving cells along a shared trajectory, the other scattering them around the same mean. We define SheshaP coherence (S_p), the mean cosine similarity between individual cell displacement vectors and their mean, and ask what it adds across six Perturb-seq datasets (2,285 perturbations; CRISPRa, CRISPRi, Cas9 knockout). Coherence and effect magnitude are closely coupled (Spearman ρ=0.84--0.98), and the coupling persists in a foundation-model embedding, under alternative effect-size definitions, and when analysis is restricted to responding cells. Associations reported without conditioning on effect size largely recover it, shown here for two comparisons that vanish under conditioning. Effect size accounts for 89--96\% of coherence variance; within the remainder, coherence is negatively associated with apoptosis and p53 signalling in the two largest screens. Two standard responder classifiers agree on only 68\% of cells. Directional coherence is largely a restatement of effect magnitude, and heterogeneity measures should report their redundancy with effect size as a matter of course. S_p is implemented in the open-source shesha-geometry Python package.

Activation outliers in large-scale transformer models pose a fundamental challenge to model quantization, creating excessively large ranges that cause severe accuracy drops during quantization. We empirically observe that outlier severity intensifies with pre-training scale (e.g., progressing from CLIP to the more extensively trained SigLIP and SigLIP2). Through theoretical analysis as well as empirical correlation studies, we establish the direct link between these activation outliers and dominant singular values of the weights. Building on this insight, we propose Selective Spectral Decay (S^2D), a geometrically-principled conditioning method that surgically regularizes only the weight components corresponding to the largest singular values during fine-tuning. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate that S^2D significantly reduces activation outliers and produces well-conditioned representations that are inherently quantization-friendly. Models trained with S^2D achieve up to 7% improved PTQ accuracy on ImageNet under W4A4 quantization and 4% gains when combined with QAT. These improvements also generalize across downstream tasks and vision-language models, enabling the scaling of increasingly large and rigorously trained models without sacrificing deployment efficiency.

The rapid progress of multimodal large language models (MLLMs) has led to increasing interest in agent-based systems. While most prior work in medical imaging concentrates on automating routine clinical workflows, we study an underexplored yet clinically significant setting: distinguishing visually hard-to-separate diseases in a zero-shot setting. We benchmark representative agents on two imaging-only proxy diagnostic tasks, (1) melanoma vs. atypical nevus and (2) pulmonary edema vs. pneumonia, where visual features are highly confounded despite substantial differences in clinical management. We introduce a multi-agent framework based on contrastive adjudication. Experimental results show improved diagnostic performance (an 11-percentage-point gain in accuracy on dermoscopy data) and reduced unsupported claims on qualitative samples, although overall performance remains insufficient for clinical deployment. We acknowledge the inherent uncertainty in human annotations and the absence of clinical context, which further limit the translation to real-world settings. Within this controlled setting, this pilot study provides preliminary insights into zero-shot agent performance in visually confounded scenarios.

We consider the problem of designing models to leverage a recently introduced approximate model averaging technique called dropout. We define a simple new model called maxout (so named because its output is the max of a set of inputs, and because it is a natural companion to dropout) designed to both facilitate optimization by dropout and improve the accuracy of dropout's fast approximate model averaging technique. We empirically verify that the model successfully accomplishes both of these tasks. We use maxout and dropout to demonstrate state of the art classification performance on four benchmark datasets: MNIST, CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100, and SVHN.

Benchmark contamination is diagnosed with n-gram overlap, likelihood-based membership inference, or canary strings, and each needs something usually unavailable: the training corpus, a well-chosen test statistic, or foresight at release. A recent alternative reads it off a linear probe on internal activations. We show the natural way to do this does not work, specify one that survives measurement, then find that the correction making it work carries more variance than the null it is tested against. The protocol reports a zero-sum contrast on the depth profile of probe accuracy, recentred on a level-matched placebo baseline, tested against a label-permutation null, with the reference set twice the size of the suspect set. Each choice replaces a simpler alternative we rejected on measurement. Reporting the level of excess separability rather than its shape makes the false positive rate track the size of the analyst's own control set, 0.03 to 0.99 under a true null. Contrasting against a flat depth profile rejects a true null 0.72 of the time when surface decodability rises with depth, and loses all power when it falls. On real transformers the protocol fails a test the simulations did not pose. The recentring subtracts an estimate, and the permutation null holds it fixed. Re-estimated across split seeds on four audits of contaminated checkpoints, its standard deviation is 1.30 to 1.56 times the null's own in every arm: what is subtracted to remove a bias is more variable than what it corrects. The one nominally significant result, p = 0.0075, becomes 0.0745 once that variance is propagated, and no verdict is issued. The simulations missed this because their surface key is the covariate driving item variation; on real text it is a proxy, and degrading key quality in simulation reproduces it. We add a companion measurement and a widened null. No arm shows contamination.

Counterfactual data augmentation has recently emerged as a method to mitigate confounding biases in the training data for a machine learning model. These biases, such as spurious correlations, arise due to various observed and unobserved confounding variables in the data generation process. In this paper, we formally analyze how confounding biases impact downstream classifiers and present a causal viewpoint to the solutions based on counterfactual data augmentation. We explore how removing confounding biases serves as a means to learn invariant features, ultimately aiding in generalization beyond the observed data distribution. Additionally, we present a straightforward yet powerful algorithm for generating counterfactual images, which effectively mitigates the influence of confounding effects on downstream classifiers. Through experiments on MNIST variants and the CelebA datasets, we demonstrate the effectiveness and practicality of our approach.

Safety tuning can improve harmful refusal, but models may learn surface-form shortcuts: wrapped harmful prompts bypass safety, while similarly wrapped benign prompts are over-refused. We propose Wrapper-Based Intent-Form Augmentation (WIFA), an automatic intent-group augmentation method that pairs wrapped harmful examples with structurally matched wrapped benign counterexamples, requiring no external teacher or manual per-wrapper intent labels. We use WIFA as a common data layer for two complementary fine-tuning routes: WIFA-Boost, a two-stage high-safety recipe, and Anchored Group-Consistent Refusal Training (A-GCRT), which regularizes refusal/compliance decision scores across same-intent wrappers and anchors harmful and benign groups on opposite sides of a margin. In the Qwen setting, WIFA-Boost reaches the strongest transformed-harmful refusal, while A-GCRT reduces OR-Bench over-refusal from 25.7\% for the base model to 17.4\%; reproduced baselines do not match these operating points. Llama results and ablations over data structure, two-stage order, and A-GCRT components support this intent-group interpretation without claiming universal below-base over-refusal.

LLMs have shown remarkable capabilities, but precisely controlling their response behavior remains challenging. Existing activation steering methods alter LLM behavior indiscriminately, limiting their practical applicability in settings where selective responses are essential, such as content moderation or domain-specific assistants. In this paper, we propose Conditional Activation Steering (CAST), which analyzes LLM activation patterns during inference to selectively apply or withhold activation steering based on the input context. Our method is based on the observation that different categories of prompts activate distinct patterns in the model's hidden states. Using CAST, one can systematically control LLM behavior with rules like "if input is about hate speech or adult content, then refuse" or "if input is not about legal advice, then refuse." This allows for selective modification of responses to specific content while maintaining normal responses to other content, all without requiring weight optimization. We release an open-source implementation of our framework at github.com/IBM/activation-steering .

Mechanistic interpretability is often motivated for alignment auditing, where a model's verbal explanations can be absent, incomplete, or misleading. Yet many evaluations do not control whether black-box prompting alone can recover the target behavior, so apparent gains from white-box tools may reflect elicitation rather than internal signal; we call this the elicitation confounder. We introduce Pando, a model-organism benchmark that breaks this confound via an explanation axis: models are trained to produce either faithful explanations of the true rule, no explanation, or confident but unfaithful explanations of a disjoint distractor rule. Across 720 finetuned models implementing hidden decision-tree rules, agents predict held-out model decisions from 10 labeled query-response pairs, optionally augmented with one interpretability tool output. When explanations are faithful, black-box elicitation matches or exceeds all white-box methods; when explanations are absent or misleading, gradient-based attribution improves accuracy by 3-5 percentage points, and relevance patching, RelP, gives the largest gains, while logit lens, sparse autoencoders, and circuit tracing provide no reliable benefit. Variance decomposition suggests gradients track decision computation, which fields causally drive the output, whereas other readouts are dominated by task representation, biases toward field identity and value. We release all models, code, and evaluation infrastructure.

For observational studies, we study the sensitivity of causal inference when treatment assignments may depend on unobserved confounders. We develop a loss minimization approach for estimating bounds on the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) when unobserved confounders have a bounded effect on the odds ratio of treatment selection. Our approach is scalable and allows flexible use of model classes in estimation, including nonparametric and black-box machine learning methods. Based on these bounds for the CATE, we propose a sensitivity analysis for the average treatment effect (ATE). Our semi-parametric estimator extends/bounds the augmented inverse propensity weighted (AIPW) estimator for the ATE under bounded unobserved confounding. By constructing a Neyman orthogonal score, our estimator of the bound for the ATE is a regular root-n estimator so long as the nuisance parameters are estimated at the o_p(n^{-1/4}) rate. We complement our methodology with optimality results showing that our proposed bounds are tight in certain cases. We demonstrate our method on simulated and real data examples, and show accurate coverage of our confidence intervals in practical finite sample regimes with rich covariate information.

The technique of data augmentation (DA) is often used in machine learning for regularization purposes to better generalize under i.i.d. settings. In this work, we present a unifying framework with topics in causal inference to make a case for the use of DA beyond just the i.i.d. setting, but for generalization across interventions as well. Specifically, we argue that when the outcome generating mechanism is invariant to our choice of DA, then such augmentations can effectively be thought of as interventions on the treatment generating mechanism itself. This can potentially help to reduce bias in causal effect estimation arising from hidden confounders. In the presence of such unobserved confounding we typically make use of instrumental variables (IVs) -- sources of treatment randomization that are conditionally independent of the outcome. However, IVs may not be as readily available as DA for many applications, which is the main motivation behind this work. By appropriately regularizing IV based estimators, we introduce the concept of IV-like (IVL) regression for mitigating confounding bias and improving predictive performance across interventions even when certain IV properties are relaxed. Finally, we cast parameterized DA as an IVL regression problem and show that when used in composition can simulate a worst-case application of such DA, further improving performance on causal estimation and generalization tasks beyond what simple DA may offer. This is shown both theoretically for the population case and via simulation experiments for the finite sample case using a simple linear example. We also present real data experiments to support our case.

A neural network trained on a classification dataset often exhibits a higher vector norm of hidden layer features for in-distribution (ID) samples, while producing relatively lower norm values on unseen instances from out-of-distribution (OOD). Despite this intriguing phenomenon being utilized in many applications, the underlying cause has not been thoroughly investigated. In this study, we demystify this very phenomenon by scrutinizing the discriminative structures concealed in the intermediate layers of a neural network. Our analysis leads to the following discoveries: (1) The feature norm is a confidence value of a classifier hidden in the network layer, specifically its maximum logit. Hence, the feature norm distinguishes OOD from ID in the same manner that a classifier confidence does. (2) The feature norm is class-agnostic, thus it can detect OOD samples across diverse discriminative models. (3) The conventional feature norm fails to capture the deactivation tendency of hidden layer neurons, which may lead to misidentification of ID samples as OOD instances. To resolve this drawback, we propose a novel negative-aware norm (NAN) that can capture both the activation and deactivation tendencies of hidden layer neurons. We conduct extensive experiments on NAN, demonstrating its efficacy and compatibility with existing OOD detectors, as well as its capability in label-free environments.

On NVIDIA Blackwell B200, tensor-core throughput outpaces special-function exponential throughput by more than two orders of magnitude, exposing exponential evaluation in fused attention kernels. A pretrained Transformer, however, may not need it evaluated accurately at every element. We characterize what a pretrained model does need by approximating softmax at inference in ten frozen decoder-only models (0.5B-72B). The number of positions the softmax map assigns probability to and within-row resolution can be cut substantially, yet uniform weighting of the same positions is damaging. Where a fixed resolution budget is placed matters as much as its size, with resolution near the row maximum consistently favored. Perturbations matched on scalar distortion produce model-dependent responses of opposite sign. These findings motivate Rowmax-PoT, a coarse logarithmic weight representation anchored at each row maximum, and Rowmax-H15, its hardware specialization in FlashAttention-4. On B200, the patched FP8 attention forward is 12.4% faster at causal 8K and 25.8% faster at non-causal 8K in host-side call-latency measurements; board energy per forward falls by 8.4% at causal 16K. Measured separately on the BF16 kernel path at 2K, Rowmax-H15 increases perplexity by 0.091-0.492% across five models from three families.

We present the Mixture-of-Tunable-Experts (MoTE), a method that extends the Mixture-of-Experts architecture of Large Language Models (LLMs). Without additional training, MoTE enables meaningful and focused behavior changes in LLMs on-the-fly during inference time. By analyzing the digital LLM brain of DeepSeek-R1 using a technique we dub 'functional Token Resonance Imaging' (fTRI) -- inspired by fMRI and using prompts designed to elicit specific behavior (e.g., 'What happened {time}{place}?') -- we empirically identify distinctive experts associated with behaviors like refusal responses. Using MoTE we are able to intervene and control such specific behavior. We switched off the top 10 most refusal-relevant experts (0.07% of R1's 14,848 routed experts), achieving a 52% refusal reduction on sensitive reference prompts without performance degradation on MT-Bench. Random expert deactivation resulted in smaller behavioral shifts with increased noise, whereas forced expert activation led to significantly higher refusal rates. Our approach shares similarities with sparse autoencoders (SAEs) in terms of explainability and steerability. Unlike SAEs, MoTE does not require large training efforts, as within MoEs with a vast number of experts, specialization already emerged naturally during pretraining. Our findings suggest that significant functional mechanisms in Mixture-of-Experts architectures can at least partially be localized in a small number of specific experts, rather than being distributed throughout the model's weights. Expert subgroups can be tuned to trigger significant behavior variations, providing insights into the inner workings of LLMs.

Arditi et al. (2024) has shown that refusal in safety fine-tuned chat models is mediated by a single linear direction in the residual stream, recoverable by a difference-in-means (DiM) of harmful and harmless activations. We compare DiM-based interventions (activation addition and directional ablation) with two interventions derived from Iterative Nullspace Projection (INLP) -- nullspace projection and counterfactual flipping -- on five open-weight chat models, asking whether INLP can match DiM at steering refusal and whether its richer parameterisation yields more tweakable interventions. INLP counterfactual flipping is competitive with DiM directional ablation on refusal suppression, while nullspace projection is consistently weaker. Restricting INLP to the leading directions of the extracted subspace preserves most of the suppression effect at near-baseline perplexity, giving a tunable capability. Geometrically, the two INLP interventions land in qualitatively different regions of activation space: nullspace projection collapses transformed activations between the harmful and harmless clusters, while counterfactual flipping moves them into the opposite cluster, suggesting that the model encodes the absence of a concept differently from its opposite -- an intriguing distinction that warrants further investigation in future work.

Aggregate metacognitive quality scores mask within-model variation across MMLU benchmark domains. We administered 1,500 MMLU items (250 per domain, under an a priori six-domain grouping) to 33 frontier LLMs from eight model families and computed Type-2 AUROC per model-domain cell using verbalized confidence (0-100). Total observations: 47,151. Every model with above-chance aggregate monitoring showed non-trivial domain-level variation. Applied/Professional knowledge was reliably the easiest benchmark domain to monitor (mean AUROC = .742, ranked top-2 in 21 of 33 models); Formal Reasoning and Natural Science were reliably the hardest (one of the two ranked bottom-2 in 27 of 33 models). The three middle domains were statistically indistinguishable (Kendall's W = .164). A subject-level coherence analysis (within-domain similarity ratio = 0.95) confirms the six-domain grouping is a pragmatic benchmark taxonomy, not a validated latent construct. Within-family profile-shape clustering is significant for Anthropic, Google-Gemini, and Qwen (permutation p < .0001) but not DeepSeek, Google-Gemma, or OpenAI. Gemma 4 31B showed a +.202 AUROC improvement over Gemma 3 27B. Three models classified Invalid on binary KEEP/WITHDRAW probes produced normal profiles under verbalized confidence, confirming probe-format specificity. Bootstrap 95% CIs on 198 cells have median width .199. Split-half aggregate stability r = .893; profile-level split-half is weaker (grand median r = .184). These results show stable benchmark-domain variation obscured by aggregate metrics, and support benchmark-stage domain screening as a step before deployment in specific application areas.

Hampering the interpretation of benchmark scores, evaluation data contamination has become a growing concern in the evaluation of LLMs, and an active area of research studies its effects. While evaluation data contamination is easily understood intuitively, it is surprisingly difficult to define precisely which samples should be considered contaminated and, consequently, how it impacts benchmark scores. We propose that these questions should be addressed together and that contamination metrics can be assessed based on whether models benefit from the examples they mark contaminated. We propose a novel analysis method called ConTAM, and show with a large scale survey of existing and novel n-gram based contamination metrics across 13 benchmarks and 7 models from 2 different families that ConTAM can be used to better understand evaluation data contamination and its effects. We find that contamination may have a much larger effect than reported in recent LLM releases and benefits models differently at different scales. We also find that considering only the longest contaminated substring provides a better signal than considering a union of all contaminated substrings, and that doing model and benchmark specific threshold analysis greatly increases the specificity of the results. Lastly, we investigate the impact of hyperparameter choices, finding that, among other things, both using larger values of n and disregarding matches that are infrequent in the pre-training data lead to many false negatives. With ConTAM, we provide a method to empirically ground evaluation data contamination metrics in downstream effects. With our exploration, we shed light on how evaluation data contamination can impact LLMs and provide insight into the considerations important when doing contamination analysis. We end our paper by discussing these in more detail and providing concrete suggestions for future work.

Most existing debiasing methods for multimodal models, including causal intervention and inference methods, utilize approximate heuristics to represent the biases, such as shallow features from early stages of training or unimodal features for multimodal tasks like VQA, etc., which may not be accurate. In this paper, we study bias arising from confounders in a causal graph for multimodal data and examine a novel approach that leverages causally-motivated information minimization to learn the confounder representations. Robust predictive features contain diverse information that helps a model generalize to out-of-distribution data. Hence, minimizing the information content of features obtained from a pretrained biased model helps learn the simplest predictive features that capture the underlying data distribution. We treat these features as confounder representations and use them via methods motivated by causal theory to remove bias from models. We find that the learned confounder representations indeed capture dataset biases, and the proposed debiasing methods improve out-of-distribution (OOD) performance on multiple multimodal datasets without sacrificing in-distribution performance. Additionally, we introduce a novel metric to quantify the sufficiency of spurious features in models' predictions that further demonstrates the effectiveness of our proposed methods. Our code is available at: https://github.com/Vaidehi99/CausalInfoMin

Exploiting activation sparsity is a promising approach to significantly accelerating the inference process of large language models (LLMs) without compromising performance. However, activation sparsity is determined by activation functions, and commonly used ones like SwiGLU and GeGLU exhibit limited sparsity. Simply replacing these functions with ReLU fails to achieve sufficient sparsity. Moreover, inadequate training data can further increase the risk of performance degradation. To address these challenges, we propose a novel dReLU function, which is designed to improve LLM activation sparsity, along with a high-quality training data mixture ratio to facilitate effective sparsification. Additionally, we leverage sparse activation patterns within the Feed-Forward Network (FFN) experts of Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) models to further boost efficiency. By applying our neuron sparsification method to the Mistral and Mixtral models, only 2.5 billion and 4.3 billion parameters are activated per inference iteration, respectively, while achieving even more powerful model performance. Evaluation results demonstrate that this sparsity achieves a 2-5x decoding speedup. Remarkably, on mobile phones, our TurboSparse-Mixtral-47B achieves an inference speed of 11 tokens per second. Our models are available at https://huggingface.co/PowerInfer

Domain generalization is critical for real-world applications of machine learning to microscopy images, including histopathology and fluorescence imaging. Artifacts in these modalities arise through a complex combination of factors relating to tissue collection and laboratory processing, as well as factors intrinsic to patient samples. In fluorescence imaging, these artifacts stem from variations across experimental batches. The complexity and subtlety of these artifacts make the enumeration of data domains intractable. Therefore, augmentation-based methods of domain generalization that require domain identifiers and manual fine-tuning are inadequate in this setting. To overcome this challenge, we introduce ContriMix, a domain generalization technique that learns to generate synthetic images by disentangling and permuting the biological content ("content") and technical variations ("attributes") in microscopy images. ContriMix does not rely on domain identifiers or handcrafted augmentations and makes no assumptions about the input characteristics of images. We assess the performance of ContriMix on two pathology datasets dealing with patch classification and Whole Slide Image label prediction tasks respectively (Camelyon17-WILDS and RCC subtyping), and one fluorescence microscopy dataset (RxRx1-WILDS). Without any access to domain identifiers at train or test time, ContriMix performs similar or better than current state-of-the-art methods in all these datasets, motivating its usage for microscopy image analysis in real-world settings where domain information is hard to come by. The code for ContriMix can be found at https://gitlab.com/huutan86/contrimix

The out-of-distribution (OOD) problem generally arises when neural networks encounter data that significantly deviates from the training data distribution, i.e., in-distribution (InD). In this paper, we study the OOD problem from a neuron activation view. We first formulate neuron activation states by considering both the neuron output and its influence on model decisions. Then, to characterize the relationship between neurons and OOD issues, we introduce the neuron activation coverage (NAC) -- a simple measure for neuron behaviors under InD data. Leveraging our NAC, we show that 1) InD and OOD inputs can be largely separated based on the neuron behavior, which significantly eases the OOD detection problem and beats the 21 previous methods over three benchmarks (CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100, and ImageNet-1K). 2) a positive correlation between NAC and model generalization ability consistently holds across architectures and datasets, which enables a NAC-based criterion for evaluating model robustness. Compared to prevalent InD validation criteria, we show that NAC not only can select more robust models, but also has a stronger correlation with OOD test performance.

Gene expression prediction, which predicts mRNA expression levels from DNA sequences, presents significant challenges. Previous works often focus on extending input sequence length to locate distal enhancers, which may influence target genes from hundreds of kilobases away. Our work first reveals that for current models, long sequence modeling can decrease performance. Even carefully designed algorithms only mitigate the performance degradation caused by long sequences. Instead, we find that proximal multimodal epigenomic signals near target genes prove more essential. Hence we focus on how to better integrate these signals, which has been overlooked. We find that different signal types serve distinct biological roles, with some directly marking active regulatory elements while others reflect background chromatin patterns that may introduce confounding effects. Simple concatenation may lead models to develop spurious associations with these background patterns. To address this challenge, we propose Prism, a framework that learns multiple combinations of high-dimensional epigenomic features to represent distinct background chromatin states and uses backdoor adjustment to mitigate confounding effects. Our experimental results demonstrate that proper modeling of multimodal epigenomic signals achieves state-of-the-art performance using only short sequences for gene expression prediction.

Out-of-distribution (OOD) prediction is often approached by restricting models to causal or invariant covariates, avoiding non-causal spurious associations that may be unstable across environments. Despite its theoretical appeal, this strategy frequently underperforms empirical risk minimization (ERM) in practice. We investigate the source of this gap and show that such failures naturally arise when only a subset of the true causes of the outcome is observed. In these settings, non-causal spurious covariates can serve as informative proxies for unobserved causes and substantially improve prediction, except under distribution shifts that break these proxy relationships. Consequently, the optimal set of predictive covariates is neither universal nor necessarily exhibits invariant relationships with the outcome across all environments, but instead depends on the specific type of shift encountered. Crucially, we observe that different covariate shifts induce distinct, observable signatures in the covariate distribution itself. Moreover, these signatures can be extracted from unlabeled data in the target OOD environment and used to assess when proxy covariates remain reliable and when they fail. Building on this observation, we propose an environment-adaptive covariate selection (EACS) algorithm that maps environment-level covariate summaries to environment-specific covariate sets, while allowing the incorporation of prior causal knowledge as constraints. Across simulations and applied datasets, EACS consistently outperforms static causal, invariant, and ERM-based predictors under diverse distribution shifts.

Heterogeneity and comorbidity are two interwoven challenges associated with various healthcare problems that greatly hampered research on developing effective treatment and understanding of the underlying neurobiological mechanism. Very few studies have been conducted to investigate heterogeneous causal effects (HCEs) in graphical contexts due to the lack of statistical methods. To characterize this heterogeneity, we first conceptualize heterogeneous causal graphs (HCGs) by generalizing the causal graphical model with confounder-based interactions and multiple mediators. Such confounders with an interaction with the treatment are known as moderators. This allows us to flexibly produce HCGs given different moderators and explicitly characterize HCEs from the treatment or potential mediators on the outcome. We establish the theoretical forms of HCEs and derive their properties at the individual level in both linear and nonlinear models. An interactive structural learning is developed to estimate the complex HCGs and HCEs with confidence intervals provided. Our method is empirically justified by extensive simulations and its practical usefulness is illustrated by exploring causality among psychiatric disorders for trauma survivors.

The success of artificial neural networks (ANNs) hinges greatly on the judicious selection of an activation function, introducing non-linearity into network and enabling them to model sophisticated relationships in data. However, the search of activation functions has largely relied on empirical knowledge in the past, lacking theoretical guidance, which has hindered the identification of more effective activation functions. In this work, we offer a proper solution to such issue. Firstly, we theoretically demonstrate the existence of the worst activation function with boundary conditions (WAFBC) from the perspective of information entropy. Furthermore, inspired by the Taylor expansion form of information entropy functional, we propose the Entropy-based Activation Function Optimization (EAFO) methodology. EAFO methodology presents a novel perspective for designing static activation functions in deep neural networks and the potential of dynamically optimizing activation during iterative training. Utilizing EAFO methodology, we derive a novel activation function from ReLU, known as Correction Regularized ReLU (CRReLU). Experiments conducted with vision transformer and its variants on CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100 and ImageNet-1K datasets demonstrate the superiority of CRReLU over existing corrections of ReLU. Extensive empirical studies on task of large language model (LLM) fine-tuning, CRReLU exhibits superior performance compared to GELU, suggesting its broader potential for practical applications.

LLM agent systems are built by stacking scaffolding components (planning, tools, memory, self-reflection, retrieval) assuming more is better. We study cross-component interference (CCI): degradation when components interact destructively. We run a full factorial experiment over all 2^5=32 subsets of five components on HotpotQA and GSM8K with Llama-3.1-8B/70B (96 conditions, up to 10 seeds). The All-In system is consistently suboptimal: on HotpotQA, a single-tool agent surpasses All-In by 32% (F1 0.233 vs 0.177, p=0.023); on GSM8K, a 3-component subset beats All-In by 79% (0.43 vs 0.24, p=0.010). Optimal component count is task-dependent (k*=1-4) and scale-sensitive: at 70B, combinations that hurt at 8B provide gains, though All-In still trails the best subset. We fit a main-effects regression (R^2=0.916, adj-R^2=0.899, LOOCV=0.872), compute exact Shapley values, and find 183/325 submodularity violations (56.3%), showing greedy selection is unreliable. A three-body synergy among Tool Use, Self-Reflection, and Retrieval (INT_3=+0.175, 95% CI [+0.003,+0.351]) is reported as exploratory. CCI replicates across model families (Qwen2.5) and is robust to prompt paraphrasing. Our findings suggest maximally-equipped agent defaults should be replaced by task-specific subset selection via interaction-aware analysis.

In this study, we present a technique that spans multi-scale views (global scale -- meaning brain network-level and local scale -- examining each individual ROI that constitutes the network) applied to resting-state fMRI volumes. Deep learning based classification is utilized in understanding neurodegeneration. The novelty of the proposed approach lies in utilizing two extreme scales of analysis. One branch considers the entire network within graph-analysis framework. Concurrently, the second branch scrutinizes each ROI within a network independently, focusing on evolution of dynamics. For each subject, graph-based approach employs partial correlation to profile the subject in a single graph where each ROI is a node, providing insights into differences in levels of participation. In contrast, non-linear analysis employs recurrence plots to profile a subject as a multichannel 2D image, revealing distinctions in underlying dynamics. The proposed approach is employed for classification of a cohort of 50 healthy control (HC) and 50 Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI), sourced from ADNI dataset. Results point to: (1) reduced activity in ROIs such as PCC in MCI (2) greater activity in occipital in MCI, which is not seen in HC (3) when analysed for dynamics, all ROIs in MCI show greater predictability in time-series.

Frontier language model capabilities are improving rapidly. We thus need stronger mitigations against bad actors misusing increasingly powerful systems. Prior work has shown that activation probes may be a promising misuse mitigation technique, but we identify a key remaining challenge: probes fail to generalize under important production distribution shifts. In particular, we find that the shift from short-context to long-context inputs is difficult for existing probe architectures. We propose several new probe architecture that handle this long-context distribution shift. We evaluate these probes in the cyber-offensive domain, testing their robustness against various production-relevant shifts, including multi-turn conversations, static jailbreaks, and adaptive red teaming. Our results demonstrate that while multimax addresses context length, a combination of architecture choice and training on diverse distributions is required for broad generalization. Additionally, we show that pairing probes with prompted classifiers achieves optimal accuracy at a low cost due to the computational efficiency of probes. These findings have informed the successful deployment of misuse mitigation probes in user-facing instances of Gemini, Google's frontier language model. Finally, we find early positive results using AlphaEvolve to automate improvements in both probe architecture search and adaptive red teaming, showing that automating some AI safety research is already possible.

The simulation of human neurons and neurotransmission mechanisms has been realized in deep neural networks based on the theoretical implementations of activation functions. However, recent studies have reported that the threshold potential of neurons exhibits different values according to the locations and types of individual neurons, and that the activation functions have limitations in terms of representing this variability. Therefore, this study proposes a simple yet effective activation function that facilitates different thresholds and adaptive activations according to the positions of units and the contexts of inputs. Furthermore, the proposed activation function mathematically exhibits a more generalized form of Swish activation function, and thus we denoted it as Adaptive SwisH (ASH). ASH highlights informative features that exhibit large values in the top percentiles in an input, whereas it rectifies low values. Most importantly, ASH exhibits trainable, adaptive, and context-aware properties compared to other activation functions. Furthermore, ASH represents general formula of the previously studied activation function and provides a reasonable mathematical background for the superior performance. To validate the effectiveness and robustness of ASH, we implemented ASH into many deep learning models for various tasks, including classification, detection, segmentation, and image generation. Experimental analysis demonstrates that our activation function can provide the benefits of more accurate prediction and earlier convergence in many deep learning applications.

Text-based causal inference increasingly employs textual data as proxies for unobserved confounders, yet this approach introduces a previously undertheorized source of bias: treatment leakage. Treatment leakage occurs when text intended to capture confounding information also contains signals predictive of treatment status, thereby inducing post-treatment bias in causal estimates. Critically, this problem can arise even when documents precede treatment assignment, as authors may employ future-referencing language that anticipates subsequent interventions. Despite growing recognition of this issue, no systematic methods exist for identifying and mitigating treatment leakage in text-as-confounder applications. This paper addresses this gap through three contributions. First, we provide formal statistical and set-theoretic definitions of treatment leakage that clarify when and why bias occurs. Second, we propose four text distillation methods -- similarity-based passage removal, distant supervision classification, salient feature removal, and iterative nullspace projection -- designed to eliminate treatment-predictive content while preserving confounder information. Third, we validate these methods through simulations using synthetic text and an empirical application examining International Monetary Fund structural adjustment programs and child mortality. Our findings indicate that moderate distillation optimally balances bias reduction against confounder retention, whereas overly stringent approaches degrade estimate precision.

High-throughput drug screening -- using cell imaging or gene expression measurements as readouts of drug effect -- is a critical tool in biotechnology to assess and understand the relationship between the chemical structure and biological activity of a drug. Since large-scale screens have to be divided into multiple experiments, a key difficulty is dealing with batch effects, which can introduce systematic errors and non-biological associations in the data. We propose InfoCORE, an Information maximization approach for COnfounder REmoval, to effectively deal with batch effects and obtain refined molecular representations. InfoCORE establishes a variational lower bound on the conditional mutual information of the latent representations given a batch identifier. It adaptively reweighs samples to equalize their implied batch distribution. Extensive experiments on drug screening data reveal InfoCORE's superior performance in a multitude of tasks including molecular property prediction and molecule-phenotype retrieval. Additionally, we show results for how InfoCORE offers a versatile framework and resolves general distribution shifts and issues of data fairness by minimizing correlation with spurious features or removing sensitive attributes. The code is available at https://github.com/uhlerlab/InfoCORE.

Anomaly detection (AD) is a machine learning task that identifies anomalies by learning patterns from normal training data. In many real-world scenarios, anomalies vary in severity, from minor anomalies with little risk to severe abnormalities requiring immediate attention. However, existing models primarily operate in a binary setting, and the anomaly scores they produce are usually based on the deviation of data points from normal data, which may not accurately reflect practical severity. In this paper, we address this gap by making three key contributions. First, we propose a novel setting, Multilevel AD (MAD), in which the anomaly score represents the severity of anomalies in real-world applications, and we highlight its diverse applications across various domains. Second, we introduce a novel benchmark, MAD-Bench, that evaluates models not only on their ability to detect anomalies, but also on how effectively their anomaly scores reflect severity. This benchmark incorporates multiple types of baselines and real-world applications involving severity. Finally, we conduct a comprehensive performance analysis on MAD-Bench. We evaluate models on their ability to assign severity-aligned scores, investigate the correspondence between their performance on binary and multilevel detection, and study their robustness. This analysis offers key insights into improving AD models for practical severity alignment. The code framework and datasets used for the benchmark will be made publicly available.

Dynamic contrast-enhanced breast MRI (DCE-MRI) is rich in anatomical and perfusion information, but its reliance on gadolinium-based contrast agents raises safety concerns and adds cost. Virtual contrast enhancement, synthesizing post-contrast from pre-contrast images, is a promising alternative. We address the MAMA-SYNTH challenge task of predicting peak-enhancement breast MRI. Rather than adopting the full machinery of diffusion or flow matching, we observe that under a rectified, straight-line path the generative process collapses to a single difference prediction: the synthetic peak image is the pre-contrast image plus a predicted enhancement map, recovered in one forward pass. Around this we build Anguinus Sculpturae, a compositional pipeline in which nnU-Net segmentations of lesion, foreground and breast region guide two generators - one optimized for global fidelity, one for lesion structure through an asymmetric Tversky term routed via a frozen segmenter - composited region-wise with Gaussian-weighted blending. On the held-out Duke subset of MAMA-MIA our model achieves the best FRD and Dice among all evaluated variants, showing that single-step difference prediction with segmentation guidance suffices to recover both global fidelity and lesion structure. Code is available at https://github.com/MIC-DKFZ/AnguinusSculpturae.

LLM-based multi-agent pipelines flip from correct to incorrect answers under simulated peer disagreement at rates we term yield, a vulnerability widely attributed to RLHF-induced sycophancy. We test this attribution across four model families and find it largely wrong: pretrained base models exhibit the same substitution pattern as their Instruct variants, averaging higher yield than Instruct. Using activation patching, we localize the corruption to a narrow mid-layer window where attention carries the causal weight and MLP contribution is negligible; patching above this window restores 96% of the clean-to-pressured P(correct) gap. The attack surface decomposes into two independent factors (channel framing and consensus strength) whose interaction produces a 47.5 percentage-point yield gap at majority consensus, preserved across jury sizes N in {4, 5, 6}. Two converging activation-space interventions show that pressure suppresses clean-reasoning features rather than activating a new sycophancy circuit. A single correctly-arguing dissenter reduces yield by 54-73 percentage points across all framings tested, whereas the strongest prompt-level defense fails on attack variants outside its design surface. Mitigations should target the mechanism, structured dissent at the pipeline level, rather than prompt-level defenses.

Small sample sizes are common in many disciplines, which necessitates pooling roughly similar datasets across multiple institutions to study weak but relevant associations between images and disease outcomes. Such data often manifest shift/imbalance in covariates (i.e., secondary non-imaging data). Controlling for such nuisance variables is common within standard statistical analysis, but the ideas do not directly apply to overparameterized models. Consequently, recent work has shown how strategies from invariant representation learning provides a meaningful starting point, but the current repertoire of methods is limited to accounting for shifts/imbalances in just a couple of covariates at a time. In this paper, we show how viewing this problem from the perspective of Category theory provides a simple and effective solution that completely avoids elaborate multi-stage training pipelines that would otherwise be needed. We show the effectiveness of this approach via extensive experiments on real datasets. Further, we discuss how this style of formulation offers a unified perspective on at least 5+ distinct problem settings, from self-supervised learning to matching problems in 3D reconstruction.

Sharp bounds on two potential-outcome means need not combine into sharp bounds on their difference. We characterize exactly when composition is guaranteed across environments sharing a joint potential-outcome law. For binary treatment and outcome, fix strict selection-probability bounds and interior treatment propensities. Subtracting the full model's sharp mean intervals gives sharp average-treatment-effect bounds for every compatible observed law if and only if the absolute selection bounds coincide across environments. Under this alignment, the complete mean region is rectangular; its endpoints and attaining causal models require O(K) arithmetic operations for K environments. For every mismatch, failure occurs on a relatively open set of positive observed tables at the prescribed propensities and persists under small joint drift. We give computable perturbation certificates and an exact family whose gap is first order in the mismatch. A separate finite-confounding family shows when the lost joint information changes an identified causal sign. These results distinguish local marginal sharpness from joint attainability after combining environments.

The central problem in biomedical imaging are batch effects: systematic technical variations unrelated to the biological signal of interest. These batch effects critically undermine experimental reproducibility and are the primary cause of failure of deep learning systems on new experimental batches, preventing their practical use in the real world. Despite years of research, no method has succeeded in closing this performance gap for deep learning models. We propose Control-Stabilized Adaptive Risk Minimization via Batch Normalization (CS-ARM-BN), a meta-learning adaptation method that exploits negative control samples. Such unperturbed reference images are present in every experimental batch by design and serve as stable context for adaptation. We validate our novel method on Mechanism-of-Action (MoA) classification, a crucial task for drug discovery, on the large-scale JUMP-CP dataset. The accuracy of standard ResNets drops from 0.939 pm 0.005, on the training domain, to 0.862 pm 0.060 on data from new experimental batches. Foundation models, even after Typical Variation Normalization, fail to close this gap. We are the first to show that meta-learning approaches close the domain gap by achieving 0.935 pm 0.018. If the new experimental batches exhibit strong domain shifts, such as being generated in a different lab, meta-learning approaches can be stabilized with control samples, which are always available in biomedical experiments. Our work shows that batch effects in bioimaging data can be effectively neutralized through principled in-context adaptation, which also makes them practically usable and efficient.

Dynamic Tanh (DyT) removes LayerNorm by bounding activations with a learned tanh(alpha x). We show that this bounding is a regime-dependent implicit regularizer, not a uniformly beneficial replacement. Across GPT-2-family models spanning 64M to 3.78B parameters and 1M to 118M tokens, with Llama and ViT cross-checks, DyT improves validation loss by 27.3% at 64M/1M but worsens it by 18.8% at 64M/118M; the 1M benefit vanishes with capacity (+1.7% at 3.78B), while the 118M penalty reaches +27.9%. The mechanism is measurable: 49% of DyT activations saturate at 1M versus 23% at 118M, and a 500-step saturation heuristic classifies DyT's sign with 75% raw in-sample accuracy on the 12-cell GPT-2 calibration set (AUC 0.75; 64% when adding Scale 5 stress cells), correctly labels 3/3 Llama checks, but only reaches 50% raw leave-one-scale-out accuracy. Three interventions support the bounding explanation: HardTanh reproduces the regime pattern, increasing alpha at 118M monotonically reduces DyT's penalty, and vanilla+dropout(p=0.5) matches DyT's data-rich loss. We also localize Llama-DyT collapse to SwiGLU gating, where saturation separates collapse from convergence in a 3-seed component ablation (r=0.94). Scope: all experiments are compute-limited (T/P < 1.84), below Chinchilla-optimal training.

Despite their impressive capabilities, current Text-to-Image (T2I) models remain prone to generating unsafe and toxic content. While activation steering offers a promising inference-time intervention, we observe that linear activation steering frequently degrades image quality when applied to benign prompts. To address this trade-off, we first construct SafeSteerDataset, a contrastive dataset containing 2300 safe and unsafe prompt pairs with high cosine similarity. Leveraging this data, we propose Conditioned Activation Transport (CAT), a framework that employs a geometry-based conditioning mechanism and nonlinear transport maps. By conditioning transport maps to activate only within unsafe activation regions, we minimize interference with benign queries. We validate our approach on two state-of-the-art architectures: Z-Image and Infinity. Experiments demonstrate that CAT generalizes effectively across these backbones, significantly reducing Attack Success Rate while maintaining image fidelity compared to unsteered generations. Warning: This paper contains potentially offensive text and images.

Automated lesion segmentation in PET/CT scans is crucial for improving clinical workflows and advancing cancer diagnostics. However, the task is challenging due to physiological variability, different tracers used in PET imaging, and diverse imaging protocols across medical centers. To address this, the autoPET series was created to challenge researchers to develop algorithms that generalize across diverse PET/CT environments. This paper presents our solution for the autoPET III challenge, targeting multitracer, multicenter generalization using the nnU-Net framework with the ResEncL architecture. Key techniques include misalignment data augmentation and multi-modal pretraining across CT, MR, and PET datasets to provide an initial anatomical understanding. We incorporate organ supervision as a multitask approach, enabling the model to distinguish between physiological uptake and tracer-specific patterns, which is particularly beneficial in cases where no lesions are present. Compared to the default nnU-Net, which achieved a Dice score of 57.61, or the larger ResEncL (65.31) our model significantly improved performance with a Dice score of 68.40, alongside a reduction in false positive (FPvol: 7.82) and false negative (FNvol: 10.35) volumes. These results underscore the effectiveness of combining advanced network design, augmentation, pretraining, and multitask learning for PET/CT lesion segmentation. After evaluation on the test set, our approach was awarded the first place in the model-centric category (Team LesionTracer). Code is publicly available at https://github.com/MIC-DKFZ/autopet-3-submission.

The design of modern neural architectures has converged through incremental empirical choices, yet the mechanisms governing their training dynamics remain only partially understood. We identify and analyze a negative weight drift induced by the interaction between standard losses and positively biased activation functions. We prove that under MSE or cross-entropy loss, the gradient with respect to positive pre-activations is non-negative in expectation at initialization, driving downstream weights toward negative values during early training. The drift is intrinsic to optimization rather than data, and persists across architectures (MLP, ResNet, ViT, GPT-nano, MP-SENe) and asymmetric activation functions (ReLU, GELU, SiLU). Coupled with ReLU, weight drift produces activation sparsity reaching up to 90\% in GPT-nano. We characterize the sparsity-accuracy tradeoff across 79 configurations and identify a sharp accuracy cliff above sim70\% activation sparsity. While ReLU^2 achieves a good sparsity--accuracy ratio in GPT-nano, it pathologically amplifies identified activation spikes in intermediate transformer layers. Clipping resolves this while preserving the representational benefits of squaring: clipped ReLU^2 outperforms its unclipped version, and GELU^2 achieves the lowest validation loss on GPT-nano. Code is available at https://github.com/On-Point-RND/BugOrFeature.

Equivariance theory predicts that an architectural symmetry prior reduces sample complexity by a factor of |G|; this is widely cited but rarely measured as a scaling law with controls that separate the prior from its confounds. On a controlled C_n-symmetric task, we report three findings. First, a wrong-group control with identical orbit size and matched compute is worse than no constraint (joint pairwise CI [+0.79, +3.26] excludes zero, robust across estimators); misaligned constraint is actively harmful, not merely unhelpful. Second, an augmentation baseline equipped with test-time orbit averaging matches the equivariant model exactly -- bit-identical per-epoch validation curves across matched cells -- so the architecture-vs-augmentation gap is conditional on asymmetric test-time computation, not unconditional. Third, the relative exchange rate beta_diff = 1.28 is consistent in sign and order of magnitude with the theoretical 1.0 (single-level CI [+0.92, +2.05]); the more conservative two-level bootstrap (seeds x group sizes) widens this to [-0.63, +1.72], including zero, and a finer-N replication on a sqrt(2)-spaced grid is inconclusive (point estimate -0.82). The methodological contributions -- the relative-rate estimator that cancels the shared-difficulty confound, the wrong-group control, and a pre-specified failure taxonomy -- transfer to any inductive bias whose strength can be parameterised. Honest scoping: the primary estimator beta_diff was adopted post-hoc after the initial analysis revealed a positive-slope identifiability problem; the design was never externally pre-registered; and the headline number rests on an OLS slope over seven group sizes on a coarse N grid. This is an exploratory study, not a confirmatory measurement; the wrong-group result is the cleanest finding and the one we report with the most confidence. A registered replication on fresh seeds is future work.

Large language models are being widely used across industries to generate content that contributes directly to key performance metrics, such as conversion rates. Pretrained models, however, often fall short when it comes to aligning with human preferences or optimizing for business objectives. As a result, fine-tuning with good-quality labeled data is essential to guide models to generate content that achieves better results. Controlled experiments, like A/B tests, can provide such data, but they are often expensive and come with significant engineering and logistical challenges. Meanwhile, companies have access to a vast amount of historical (observational) data that remains underutilized. In this work, we study the challenges and opportunities of fine-tuning LLMs using observational data. We show that while observational outcomes can provide valuable supervision, directly fine-tuning models on such data can lead them to learn spurious correlations. We present empirical evidence of this issue using various real-world datasets and propose DeconfoundLM, a method that explicitly removes the effect of known confounders from reward signals. Using simulation experiments, we demonstrate that DeconfoundLM improves the recovery of causal relationships and mitigates failure modes found in fine-tuning methods that ignore or naively incorporate confounding variables. Our findings highlight that while observational data presents risks, with the right causal corrections, it can be a powerful source of signal for LLM alignment. Please refer to the project page for code and related resources.

Clinical decision-support systems are expert systems whose recommendations clinicians act on directly, yet they are usually cleared on one aggregate accuracy number from a held-out test set. That number says nothing about input reliability under encoding shifts, subgroup gaps, threshold sensitivity, or operational feasibility. We present RISED, a pre-deployment evaluation framework operationalising five dimensions (Reliability, Inclusivity, Sensitivity, Equity, Deployability) through BCa bootstrap 95% confidence intervals, literature-grounded thresholds, and Holm-Bonferroni-corrected PASS / FAIL / INCONCLUSIVE verdicts; Equity is a proxy-dependence diagnostic rather than a gating test. Applied to seven cohorts spanning 35 years (n from 303 to 99,492), RISED surfaces failures invisible to AUROC: on Diabetes 130, Reliability passes by three orders of magnitude (PSS = 0.0004) while Inclusivity (AUC parity gap = 0.262) and Sensitivity (max threshold-flip rate 49.1%) fail decisively; both NHIS cohorts reproduce this. NHANES 2021-2023, with a complete feature profile, achieves INCONCLUSIVE verdicts; BRFSS 2024 produces the suite's most severe Sensitivity failure (max threshold-flip rate 64.2%) after instrument rotation removed hypertension and cholesterol. The pattern recurs on credit- and income-prediction cohorts, confirming domain-agnosticity; a multi-model check shows the failures are data-driven, not model-specific. RISED ships as an open-source Python package complementing TRIPOD+AI, FUTURE-AI, and Fairlearn with the structured numerical evidence those standards require but do not prescribe.

Virtual contrast enhancement (VCE) synthesizes enhanced breast MR images from pre-contrast acquisitions. Modern latent generators offer strong image priors, but their bounded natural-image autoencoders conflict with the non-canonical intensity scale of MRI. We show that the upper bound can alter radiomic fidelity before generation, while scaling source and target independently creates a coordinate inconsistency. We propose Predictive Enhancement Calibration (PEC), which represents each pair in a shared, case-adaptive coordinate during training and predicts its unavailable upper endpoint from the pre-contrast image at inference. We integrate PEC with a pretrained FLUX latent flow transformer via parameter-efficient reference conditioning. Target round trips first isolate representation loss before generation; near-matched conditional models then compare PEC with fixed-wide and separate coordinates under comparable training budgets and backbone settings. On the fixed internal MAMA100 development cohort, PEC improves all eight point estimates in this source-only VCE setting, with paired evidence strongest for MSE and LPIPS.\noindentCode: https://github.com/tanlei0/pec-breast-mri-vce

The field of large language models (LLMs) has grown rapidly in recent years, driven by the desire for better efficiency, interpretability, and safe use. Building on the novel approach of "activation engineering," this study explores personality modification in LLMs, drawing inspiration from research like Refusal in LLMs Is Mediated by a Single Direction (arXiv:2406.11717) and Steering Llama 2 via Contrastive Activation Addition (arXiv:2312.06681). We leverage activation engineering to develop a method for identifying and adjusting activation directions related to personality traits, which may allow for dynamic LLM personality fine-tuning. This work aims to further our understanding of LLM interpretability while examining the ethical implications of such developments.

This article addresses the challenge of modeling the amplitude of spatially indexed low frequency fluctuations (ALFF) in resting state functional MRI as a function of cortical structural features and a multi-task coactivation network in the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development (ABCD) Study. It proposes a generative model that integrates effects of spatially-varying inputs and a network-valued input using deep neural networks to capture complex non-linear and spatial associations with the output. The method models spatial smoothness, accounts for subject heterogeneity and complex associations between network and spatial images at different scales, enables accurate inference of each images effect on the output image, and allows prediction with uncertainty quantification via Monte Carlo dropout, contributing to one of the first Explainable AI (XAI) frameworks for heterogeneous imaging data. The model is highly scalable to high-resolution data without the heavy pre-processing or summarization often required by Bayesian methods. Empirical results demonstrate its strong performance compared to existing statistical and deep learning methods. We applied the XAI model to the ABCD data which revealed associations between cortical features and ALFF throughout the entire brain. Our model performed comparably to existing methods in predictive accuracy but provided superior uncertainty quantification and faster computation, demonstrating its effectiveness for large-scale neuroimaging analysis. Open-source software in Python for XAI is available.

Activation sparsity refers to the existence of considerable weakly-contributed elements among activation outputs. As a prevalent property of the models using the ReLU activation function, it has been proven a promising paradigm to boost model inference efficiency. Nevertheless, most large language models (LLMs) adopt activation functions without intrinsic activation sparsity (e.g., GELU and Swish). Some recent efforts have explored introducing ReLU or its variants as the substitutive activation function to help LLMs achieve activation sparsity and inference acceleration, but few can simultaneously obtain high sparsity and comparable model performance. This paper introduces an effective sparsification method named "ProSparse" to push LLMs for higher activation sparsity without decreasing model performance. Specifically, after substituting the activation function of LLMs with ReLU, ProSparse adopts progressive sparsity regularization with a factor smoothly increasing along sine curves in multiple stages. This can enhance activation sparsity and alleviate performance degradation by avoiding radical shifts in activation distribution. With ProSparse, we obtain high sparsity of 89.32% and 88.80% for LLaMA2-7B and LLaMA2-13B, respectively, achieving comparable performance to their original Swish-activated versions. Our inference acceleration experiments further demonstrate the practical acceleration brought by higher activation sparsity.

The task of out-of-distribution (OOD) detection is notoriously ill-defined. Earlier works focused on new-class detection, aiming to identify label-altering data distribution shifts, also known as "semantic shift." However, recent works argue for a focus on failure detection, expanding the OOD evaluation framework to account for label-preserving data distribution shifts, also known as "covariate shift." Intriguingly, under this new framework, complex OOD detectors that were previously considered state-of-the-art now perform similarly to, or even worse than the simple maximum softmax probability baseline. This raises the question: what are the latest OOD detectors actually detecting? Deciphering the behavior of OOD detection algorithms requires evaluation datasets that decouples semantic shift and covariate shift. To aid our investigations, we present ImageNet-OOD, a clean semantic shift dataset that minimizes the interference of covariate shift. Through comprehensive experiments, we show that OOD detectors are more sensitive to covariate shift than to semantic shift, and the benefits of recent OOD detection algorithms on semantic shift detection is minimal. Our dataset and analyses provide important insights for guiding the design of future OOD detectors.

Training loss and throughput can hide distinct internal representation in language-model training. To examine these hidden mechanics, we use spectral measurements as practical and operational diagnostics. Using a controlled family of decoder-only models adapted from the modded NanoGPT codebase, we introduce an empirical protocol based on activation covariance and per-sample gradient SVD spectra. This dual-view reveals three empirical findings and one mechanistic explanation. First, batch size acts as a latent determinant of representation geometry: runs that reach equal loss settle into systematically distinct activation spectra. Second, the activation covariance tail measured early in training reliably forecasts downstream token efficiency. Third, movement of the activation spectrum head (leading modes), together with gradient spectra, characterizes underlying learning-dynamics changes, separating learning-side architectural improvements from primarily execution-side gains. These predictive and diagnostic signals persist across the 12-, 36-, and 48-layer model tiers. Finally, a mechanistic model proves the main observations and explains how activation covariance spectra correlate with task-aligned feature learning.

Spurious correlations allow flexible models to predict well during training but poorly on related test distributions. Recent work has shown that models that satisfy particular independencies involving correlation-inducing nuisance variables have guarantees on their test performance. Enforcing such independencies requires nuisances to be observed during training. However, nuisances, such as demographics or image background labels, are often missing. Enforcing independence on just the observed data does not imply independence on the entire population. Here we derive mmd estimators used for invariance objectives under missing nuisances. On simulations and clinical data, optimizing through these estimates achieves test performance similar to using estimators that make use of the full data.

Verbal confidence elicitation is widely used to extract uncertainty estimates from LLMs. We tested whether seven instruction-tuned open-weight models (3-9B parameters, four families) produce verbalised confidence that meets minimal validity criteria for item-level Type-2 discrimination under minimal numeric elicitation with greedy decoding. In a pre-registered study (OSF: osf.io/azbvx), 524 TriviaQA items were administered under numeric (0-100) and categorical (10-class) elicitation to eight models at Q5_K_M quantisation on consumer hardware, yielding 8,384 deterministic trials. A psychometric validity screen was applied to each model-format cell. All seven instruct models were classified Invalid on numeric confidence (H2 confirmed, 7/7 vs. predicted >=4/7), with a mean ceiling rate of 91.7% (H1 confirmed). Categorical elicitation did not rescue validity. Instead, it disrupted task performance in six of seven models, producing accuracy below 5% (H4 not confirmed). Token-level logprobability did not usefully predict verbalised confidence under the observed variance regime (H5 confirmed, mean cross-validated R^2 < 0.01). Within the reasoning-distilled model, reasoning-trace length showed a strong negative partial correlation with confidence (rho = -0.36, p < .001), consistent with the Reasoning Contamination Effect. These results do not imply that internal uncertainty representations are absent. They show that minimal verbal elicitation fails to preserve internal signals at the output interface in this model-size regime. Psychometric screening should precede any downstream use of such signals.

Softmax-based dot-product attention is a cornerstone of Transformer architectures, enabling remarkable capabilities such as in-context learning. However, as context lengths increase, a fundamental limitation of the softmax function emerges: it tends to diffuse probability mass to irrelevant tokens degrading performance in long-sequence scenarios. Furthermore, attempts to sharpen focus by lowering softmax temperature hinder learnability due to vanishing gradients. We introduce LUCID Attention, an architectural modification that applies a preconditioner to the attention probabilities. This preconditioner, derived from exponentiated key-key similarities, minimizes overlap between the keys in a Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space, thus allowing the query to focus on important keys among large number of keys accurately with same computational complexity as standard attention. Additionally, LUCID's preconditioning-based approach to retrieval bypasses the need for low temperature and the learnability problems associated with it. We validate our approach by training ~1 billion parameter language models evaluated on up to 128K tokens. Our results demonstrate significant gains on long-context retrieval tasks, specifically retrieval tasks from BABILong, RULER, SCROLLS and LongBench. For instance, LUCID achieves up to 18% improvement in BABILong and 14% improvement in RULER multi-needle performance compared to standard attention.

Longitudinal treatment decisions require predicting potential outcomes under future treatment sequences in the presence of time-varying confounding, heterogeneous patient dynamics, and limited domain-specific data. Existing longitudinal causal estimators typically train a new model for each cohort or simulator. We introduce Causal Longitudinal Prior-Fitted Networks (CausalLongPFN), a prior-fitted in-context predictor for longitudinal causal prediction. The model is pretrained entirely on synthetic episodes sampled from a broad prior over temporal structural causal models, exposing it to treatment-confounder feedback, latent heterogeneity, nonlinear state evolution, delayed effects, and cumulative treatment responses. At test time, CausalLongPFN is frozen: it conditions on support trajectories, a query history, and a proposed future treatment sequence, and returns a predictive distribution over future outcomes without gradient updates or propensity-model fitting. Multi-step predictions are obtained by recursively applying the one-step predictor under the specified treatment sequence. We evaluate on branchable cancer, HIV, and warfarin benchmarks with ground-truth counterfactual labels, and on factual-only rolling-origin prediction in MIMIC-III ICU trajectories. CausalLongPFN is competitive with domain-trained longitudinal baselines on counterfactual benchmarks and performs strongly on factual MIMIC-III prediction, suggesting that broad synthetic causal pretraining can provide a useful frozen alternative when repeated domain-specific training is costly or impractical.

We evaluate the propensity of frontier models to sabotage or refuse to assist with safety research when deployed as AI research agents within a frontier AI company. We apply two complementary evaluations to four Claude models (Mythos Preview, Opus 4.7 Preview, Opus 4.6, and Sonnet 4.6): an unprompted sabotage evaluation testing model behaviour with opportunities to sabotage safety research, and a sabotage continuation evaluation testing whether models continue to sabotage when placed in trajectories where prior actions have started undermining research. We find no instances of unprompted sabotage across any model, with refusal rates close to zero for Mythos Preview and Opus 4.7 Preview, though all models sometimes only partially completed tasks. In the continuation evaluation, Mythos Preview actively continues sabotage in 7% of cases (versus 3% for Opus 4.6, 4% for Sonnet 4.6, and 0% for Opus 4.7 Preview), and exhibits reasoning-output discrepancy in the majority of these cases, indicating covert sabotage reasoning. Our evaluation framework builds on Petri, an open-source LLM auditing tool, with a custom scaffold running models inside Claude Code, alongside an iterative pipeline for generating realistic sabotage trajectories. We measure both evaluation awareness and a new form of situational awareness termed "prefill awareness", the capability to recognise that prior trajectory content was not self-generated. Opus 4.7 Preview shows notably elevated unprompted evaluation awareness, while prefill awareness remains low across all models. Finally, we discuss limitations including evaluation awareness confounds, limited scenario coverage, and untested pathways to risk beyond safety research sabotage.

We report that model quantisation restructures domain-level metacognitive efficiency in LLMs rather than degrading it uniformly. Evaluating Llama-3-8B-Instruct on the same 3,000 questions at Q5_K_M and f16 precision, we find that M-ratio profiles across four knowledge domains are uncorrelated between formats (Spearman rho = 0.00). Arts & Literature moves from worst-monitored (M-ratio = 0.606 at Q5_K_M) to best-monitored (1.542 at f16). Geography moves from well-monitored (1.210) to under-monitored (0.798). However, Type-2 AUROC profiles are perfectly stable across formats (rho = 1.00), localising the restructuring to the M-ratio normalisation rather than the underlying discrimination signal. This finding emerged from a pre-registered attempt to improve metacognition through domain-conditional training. We prescribed confidence-amplification SFT for the diagnosed weak domain, with matched-budget agnostic and wrong-prescription controls. All four confirmatory hypotheses were null (10,000 bootstrap resamples, seed = 42). The training successfully reshaped confidence distributions, doubling the NLP gap in Science from 0.076 to 0.152, but did not improve meta-d' because the diagnostic profile did not transfer across formats. Any system relying on domain-level M-ratio profiles has an unexamined dependency on inference format. Systems using AUROC_2 are safer. We release all code, pre-registrations, and trial-level data.

Monitoring is an important aspect of safely deploying Large Language Models (LLMs). This paper examines activation probes for detecting ``high-stakes'' interactions -- where the text indicates that the interaction might lead to significant harm -- as a critical, yet underexplored, target for such monitoring. We evaluate several probe architectures trained on synthetic data, and find them to exhibit robust generalization to diverse, out-of-distribution, real-world data. Probes' performance is comparable to that of prompted or finetuned medium-sized LLM monitors, while offering computational savings of six orders-of-magnitude. These savings are enabled by reusing activations of the model that is being monitored. Our experiments also highlight the potential of building resource-aware hierarchical monitoring systems, where probes serve as an efficient initial filter and flag cases for more expensive downstream analysis. We release our novel synthetic dataset and the codebase at https://github.com/arrrlex/models-under-pressure.

In continual learning, many classifiers use softmax function to learn confidence. However, numerous studies have pointed out its inability to accurately determine confidence distributions for outliers, often referred to as epistemic uncertainty. This inherent limitation also curtails the accurate decisions for selecting what to forget and keep in previously trained confidence distributions over continual learning process. To address the issue, we revisit the effects of masking softmax function. While this method is both simple and prevalent in literature, its implication for retaining confidence distribution during continual learning, also known as stability, has been under-investigated. In this paper, we revisit the impact of softmax masking, and introduce a methodology to utilize its confidence preservation effects. In class- and task-incremental learning benchmarks with and without memory replay, our approach significantly increases stability while maintaining sufficiently large plasticity. In the end, our methodology shows better overall performance than state-of-the-art methods, particularly in the use with zero or small memory. This lays a simple and effective foundation of strongly stable replay-based continual learning.

Instrumental variable methods have been widely used to identify causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding. A key identification condition known as the exclusion restriction states that the instrument cannot have a direct effect on the outcome which is not mediated by the exposure in view. In the health and social sciences, such an assumption is often not credible. To address this concern, we consider identification conditions of the population average treatment effect with an invalid instrumental variable which does not satisfy the exclusion restriction, and derive the efficient influence function targeting the identifying functional under a nonparametric observed data model. We propose a novel multiply robust locally efficient estimator of the average treatment effect that is consistent in the union of multiple parametric nuisance models, as well as a multiply debiased machine learning estimator for which the nuisance parameters are estimated using generic machine learning methods, that effectively exploit various forms of linear or nonlinear structured sparsity in the nuisance parameter space. When one cannot be confident that any of these machine learners is consistent at sufficiently fast rates to ensure n-consistency for the average treatment effect, we introduce a new criteria for selective machine learning which leverages the multiple robustness property in order to ensure small bias. The proposed methods are illustrated through extensive simulations and a data analysis evaluating the causal effect of 401(k) participation on savings.

We report the design and results of the third autoPET challenge (MICCAI 2024), which benchmarked automated lesion segmentation in whole-body PET/CT under a compositional generalization setting. Training data comprised 1,014 [18F]-FDG PET/CT studies from the University Hospital Tübingen and 597 [18F]/[68Ga]-PSMA PET/CT studies from the LMU University Hospital Munich, constituting the largest publicly available annotated PSMA PET/CT dataset to date. The held-out test set of 200 studies covered four tracer-center combinations, two of which represented unseen compositional pairings. A complementary data-centric award category isolated the contribution of data handling strategies by restricting participants to a fixed baseline model. Seventeen teams submitted 27 algorithms, predominantly nnU-Net-based 3D networks with PET/CT channel concatenation. The top-ranked algorithm achieved a mean DSC of 0.66, FNV of 3.18 mL, and FPV of 2.78 mL across all four test conditions, improving DSC by 8% and reducing the false-negative volume by 5 mL relative to the provided baseline. Ranking was stable across bootstrap resampling and alternative ranking schemes for the top tier. Beyond the benchmark, we provide an in-depth analysis of segmentation performance at the patient and lesion level. Three main conclusions can be drawn: (1) in-domain multitracer PET/CT segmentation is sufficient and probably approaching reader agreement; (2) compositional generalization to unseen tracer-center combinations remains an open problem mainly driven by systematic volume overestimation; (3) heterogeneity and case difficulty drive performance variation substantially more than the choice of algorithm among top-ranked teams.

Activation steering methods were shown to be effective in conditioning language model generation by additively intervening over models' intermediate representations. However, the evaluation of these techniques has so far been limited to single conditioning properties and synthetic settings. In this work, we conduct a comprehensive evaluation of various activation steering strategies, highlighting the property-dependent nature of optimal parameters to ensure a robust effect throughout generation. To address this issue, we propose Dynamic Activation Composition, an information-theoretic approach to modulate the steering intensity of one or more properties throughout generation. Our experiments on multi-property steering show that our method successfully maintains high conditioning while minimizing the impact of conditioning on generation fluency.

A key challenge of modern machine learning systems is to achieve Out-of-Distribution (OOD) generalization -- generalizing to target data whose distribution differs from that of source data. Despite its significant importance, the fundamental question of ``what are the most effective algorithms for OOD generalization'' remains open even under the standard setting of covariate shift. This paper addresses this fundamental question by proving that, surprisingly, classical Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) purely using source data (without any modification) achieves the minimax optimality for covariate shift under the well-specified setting. That is, no algorithm performs better than MLE in this setting (up to a constant factor), justifying MLE is all you need. Our result holds for a very rich class of parametric models, and does not require any boundedness condition on the density ratio. We illustrate the wide applicability of our framework by instantiating it to three concrete examples -- linear regression, logistic regression, and phase retrieval. This paper further complement the study by proving that, under the misspecified setting, MLE is no longer the optimal choice, whereas Maximum Weighted Likelihood Estimator (MWLE) emerges as minimax optimal in certain scenarios.

Text-to-image models trained on large-scale data often inevitably ingest unsafe content. While some people observe input-output amplifications, it remains unclear whether and how training data composition directly drives model output safety or by other factors. We shed light on this question by isolating this variable: we train the same text-to-image model on datasets that differ only in their fraction of unsafe images (0\% to 9.6\%), across several dataset scales (100K to 8M). Then we generate images with the resulting models, and evaluate them with four independent safety classifiers. Output unsafety rises monotonically from 16.6\% at 0\% contamination to 25.5\% at 5\%. A factorial design reveals that the proportion, not the absolute count, of unsafe training images is the operative variable. The 16.6\% irreducible baseline at zero contamination implicates the other components, e.g. frozen text encoder, as a residual safety risk -- confirmed by a text encoder ablation showing that SafeCLIP reduces this floor to 9.6\%, while the dose-response effect persists across all three encoders tested. Critically, no quality degradation in terms of FID, CLIPscore and ImageReward accompanies safety filtering. These results establish that data curation and text encoder safety are complementary and independently effective interventions. At the same time, the remaining level of unsafety poses questions for future research about emerging capabilities and compositionality.

The wide-scale use of sparse autoencoders (SAEs) as interpretability tools is limited by inconsistent links between SAE features and model behavior. Features with clear activation descriptions may have weak or unexpected causal effects; steering can vary across prompts or oppose the intended direction; and activation-based feature selection can miss features that produce the desired output change. Prior work has studied feature geometry inside the model, where features are computed. We instead study the geometry of changes in model logits caused by feature interventions. We introduce Feature-Effect Geometry Analysis (FEGA), an unsupervised framework that removes the same active SAE feature across contexts and analyzes the resulting cloud of logit changes. Across SAE variants, consistent one-dimensional effects are rare: few features behave like reusable directions. To interpret this variation, we distinguish value-like features, tied to static information such as factual attributes, from pointer-like features, associated with context-dependent operations. Value-like features more often exhibit structured, low-dimensional effects, although these effects typically span several directions. Pointer-like features, by contrast, predominantly exhibit diffuse effects. Our results show that a feature can be interpretable and causally relevant without providing a stable direction for steering.

In this work, we address the TrackRAD2025 challenge of real-time tumor tracking in cine-MRI sequences of the thoracic and abdominal regions under strong data scarcity constraints. Two complementary strategies were explored: (i) unsupervised registration with the IMPACT similarity metric and (ii) foundation model-based segmentation leveraging SAM 2.1 and its recent variants through prompt-based interaction. Due to the one-second runtime constraint, the SAM-based method was ultimately selected. The final configuration used SAM2.1 b+ with mask-based prompts from the first annotated slice, fine-tuned solely on the small labeled subset from TrackRAD2025. Training was configured to minimize overfitting, using 1024x1024 patches (batch size 1), standard augmentations, and a balanced Dice + IoU loss. A low uniform learning rate (0.0001) was applied to all modules (prompt encoder, decoder, Hiera backbone) to preserve generalization while adapting to annotator-specific styles. Training lasted 300 epochs (~12h on RTX A6000, 48GB). The same inference strategy was consistently applied across all anatomical sites and MRI field strengths. Test-time augmentation was considered but ultimately discarded due to negligible performance gains. The final model was selected based on the highest Dice Similarity Coefficient achieved on the validation set after fine-tuning. On the hidden test set, the model reached a Dice score of 0.8794, ranking 6th overall in the TrackRAD2025 challenge. These results highlight the strong potential of foundation models for accurate and real-time tumor tracking in MRI-guided radiotherapy.

In natural language processing, a recently popular line of work explores how to best report the experimental results of neural networks. One exemplar publication, titled "Show Your Work: Improved Reporting of Experimental Results," advocates for reporting the expected validation effectiveness of the best-tuned model, with respect to the computational budget. In the present work, we critically examine this paper. As far as statistical generalizability is concerned, we find unspoken pitfalls and caveats with this approach. We analytically show that their estimator is biased and uses error-prone assumptions. We find that the estimator favors negative errors and yields poor bootstrapped confidence intervals. We derive an unbiased alternative and bolster our claims with empirical evidence from statistical simulation. Our codebase is at http://github.com/castorini/meanmax.

Safety benchmarks assume that test-condition behavior predicts deployment behavior, an assumption that fails if models detect evaluation cues and adapt. This opens a gap between benchmark performance and deployment behavior: compliance measured under test conditions becomes an optimistic upper bound that overstates how safely a model behaves once the evaluation harness is removed. We characterize this evaluation awareness through eight experiments across 37 open-weight models and seven families. (i)Detection is moderate and training-driven (24/37 models exceed chance, best AUROC 0.714 vs.0.819 human, with instruction tuning dominating over scale). (ii)Detection shifts safety behavior (hard refusal drops 5.8 percentage points under hypothetical framing, and 21/140 HarmBench framing effects are significant, with compliance rising up to +30 percentage points. (iii)Representations survive behavioral collapse (probes retain AUROC 0.98 under rewrites that drive behavior below chance, and multi-layer steering causally moves three downstream tasks while random controls do not). (iv)These axes are weakly coupled (only 1/15 correlations are significant, the sole robust link being behavioral detection versus framing resistance, ρ=-0.79, p<0.001). We call this gap the benchmark illusion: because detectability, behavioral manifestation, and controllability vary independently, it is multivariate rather than a single number, so no single awareness score is a reliable proxy for deployment safety.

Single-cell RNA sequencing (scRNA-seq) data are often confounded by technical or biological batch effects. Existing deep learning models mitigate these effects but often discard batch-specific information, potentially losing valuable biological insights. We propose a Mixed Effects Deep Learning (MEDL) autoencoder framework that separately models batch-invariant (fixed effects) and batch-specific (random effects) components. By decoupling batch-invariant biological states from batch variations, our framework integrates both into predictive models. Our approach also generates 2D visualizations of how the same cell appears across batches, enhancing interpretability. Retaining both fixed and random effect latent spaces improves classification accuracy. We applied our framework to three datasets spanning the cardiovascular system (Healthy Heart), Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD), and Acute Myeloid Leukemia (AML). With 147 batches in the Healthy Heart dataset, far exceeding typical numbers, we tested our framework's ability to handle many batches. In the ASD dataset, our approach captured donor heterogeneity between autistic and healthy individuals. In the AML dataset, it distinguished donor heterogeneity despite missing cell types and diseased donors exhibiting both healthy and malignant cells. These results highlight our framework's ability to characterize fixed and random effects, enhance batch effect visualization, and improve prediction accuracy across diverse datasets.

We present the first systematic study of Massive activations (MAs) in layer-interleaved HLA LLMs and uncover two architecture-aligned morphologies: MAs consistently spike immediately before full attention layers, forming pre-attention spikes (PAS), and can persist through intervening linear attention layers, giving rise to inter-spike plateaus (ISP). As full attention becomes denser, successive PAS become increasingly connected through ISP, ultimately recovering the stable MA morphology of full attention LLMs. We establish the recurrence of this organization across five linear attention architectures, six hybridization configurations, five data domains, and representative open-source hybrid models spanning 1.2B to 397B total parameters. Controlled pretraining of GDN-based hybrids at scales up to 1.3B shows that both morphologies emerge early and respond asymmetrically to output gating: full attention output gating strongly attenuates their absolute magnitudes without eliminating their layerwise organization, whereas removing GDN gates yields comparatively modest amplification. Mechanistically, our systematic-outlier analysis supports a shared lifecycle account governed by the timing of MA cancellation. PAS follows a localized write-sink-cancel process, while the extended persistence of ISP is consistent with delayed cancellation. At the full attention limit, this account recovers the stable MA morphology characteristic of full attention LLMs. Our code is available at https://github.com/StartluxLabs/Massive-Activations-HLA.

A core goal of computational social science is to discover interpretable differences in how language varies across outcomes of interest, such as political affiliation or instructional quality. Recent LLM-based hypothesis generation methods describe such differences in natural language, but select for globally discriminative patterns without accounting for covariates that shape the data based on researchers' domain knowledge. When covariates are ignored, selected patterns can reflect confounds rather than differences of substantive interest. We introduce conditional hypothesis generation, a framework that incorporates researcher-specified covariates to steer hypothesis discovery toward differences that hold within relevant subgroups. Two challenges arise: the target subgroup may be underrepresented (stratum imbalance), and the direction of a difference may reverse across subgroups (sign reversal). We propose two econometrics-inspired methods: one introduces feature--covariate interactions to detect sign reversals, and the other applies within-stratum demeaning and inverse-frequency reweighting to equalize underrepresented strata. Synthetic experiments show each method outperforms global baselines in its targeted setting, and expert evaluation on two real-world datasets confirms that covariate-aware generation surfaces more useful hypotheses within relevant subgroups.

Deployed large reasoning models (LRMs) often behave unexpectedly. Test-time steering controls LRM outputs by intervening on their hidden representations, but it can degrade output quality. We argue that prior steering work implicitly relies on internal features that detect behavior in already generated text. We show that these detection features are poor predictors of future behavioral outcomes, and thus not the natural intervention target. Instead, we train activation probes to predict future behavior likelihoods from intermediate reasoning steps. These probes predict the most likely behavior with 64%-91% accuracy, revealing a separate type of internal prediction features. Building on these prediction features, we introduce a text-level steering method, Future Probe Controlled Generation. FPCG samples multiple candidate sentences and chooses the best one according to a probe predicting the future behavior likelihood. This enables steering with almost no output quality degradation. FPCG also enables steering in several evaluations where activation steering fails. These results show that distinguishing detection and prediction features enables a more nuanced approach to controlling LRM behaviors.

Clinicians trace cephalometric radiographs following a structured anatomical workflow, yet no prior system encodes this into computation. We present a five-phase anatomy-guided pipeline producing confidence-weighted spatial priors that shape HRNet-W32 training, achieving 1.04 mm mean radial error on 25 landmarks across 1,502 radiographs from 7+ imaging devices. A training x inference prior matrix isolates the mechanism: anatomical priors maintain a 1% validation-to-test gap versus 88% without priors (1.94 mm), despite identical validation convergence. The matrix establishes that all trained models are inference-independent, the expanded architecture alone provides no benefit, random priors yield partial but unstable improvement (1.72 mm), and only image-specific anatomically correct priors produce the 1.04 mm result -- functioning as a training-time regularizer requiring no automated prior generation at deployment. Five-fold cross-validation (p=0.0015), patient-level permutation testing (p<0.0001, n=151), quantified Grad-CAM analysis (88% vs. 74% in-zone activation, p<0.001), and clinical measurement validation (skeletal classification kappa=0.79-0.84, zero Class II<->III reversals, ICC>0.95) provide converging evidence. Cross-domain experiments on echocardiography, cervical spine, and hand radiography support the hypothesis that prior effectiveness scales with the spatial entropy of the landmark distribution.

The systemic, metabolic, lifestyle factors have established associations with Alzheimer's Disease (AD) through epidemiologic and AD-specific biomarker studies. Whether colored fundus photography (CFP) contains retinal structural signatures corresponding to these AD-related risk domains remains unclear. To determine whether deep learning (DL) models can predict 12 AD-related risk factors from CFP and to characterize the retinal structures underlying these predictions, thereby assessing whether CFP reflects pathways to AD vulnerability. Using 62,876 CFPs from 44,501 unique participants from the UK Biobank, DL models were trained to predict 12 factors linked to AD incidence: 6 categorical (sex, smoking, sleeplessness, economic status, alcohol use, depression) and 6 continuous (age, age at completing education, BMI, systolic, diastolic blood pressure, HbA1c). Model performance, model saliency, and saliency-derived scores (CAM-Score) were evaluated and compared to retinal morphometry. The scores were also compared between incident-AD cases (average 8.55 years before onset) and matched controls. Performance of DL ranged from AUROC= 0.5654-0.9480 for categorical and R2=-0.0291-0.7620 for continuous factors, outperforming most of the morphometry-machine learning models. Saliency-based score consistently highlighted biologically meaningful regions, particularly the optic nerve head and retinal vasculature. It also aligned with present morphometric variations. Several saliency-based scores differed significantly between incident AD and matched controls, suggesting potential overlap between retinal correlates of risk factors and preclinical AD-associated changes. CFP encodes retinal signatures linked to AD risk factors. Although not diagnostic, DL-derived retinal representations may uncover biologically meaningful risk-related structural changes mirroring the potential AD vulnerability.

Neural networks have proven to be a highly effective tool for solving complex problems in many areas of life. Recently, their importance and practical usability have further been reinforced with the advent of deep learning. One of the important conditions for the success of neural networks is the choice of an appropriate activation function introducing non-linearity into the model. Many types of these functions have been proposed in the literature in the past, but there is no single comprehensive source containing their exhaustive overview. The absence of this overview, even in our experience, leads to redundancy and the unintentional rediscovery of already existing activation functions. To bridge this gap, our paper presents an extensive survey involving 400 activation functions, which is several times larger in scale than previous surveys. Our comprehensive compilation also references these surveys; however, its main goal is to provide the most comprehensive overview and systematization of previously published activation functions with links to their original sources. The secondary aim is to update the current understanding of this family of functions.