Daily Papers

Agent performance depends jointly on the model parameters and the executable harness code that manages context and control flow. Optimizing either component in isolation can leave the system bottlenecked by its frozen counterpart: weight updates can change which harness is effective, while harness updates can change which model capabilities are exposed. Existing joint-adaptation methods optimize weights and textual prompts but leave the broader harness fixed. We propose Weight-Harness Alternating LEarning (WHALE), a simple recipe that alternates two phases: updating the model under the current harness, then searching for a better harness under the updated model. We instantiate these two phases with online rejection-sampling fine-tuning and Meta-Harness, respectively. When to switch is a key design choice: to separate real improvements from noise without over-optimizing against a changing counterpart, WHALE uses either fixed phase durations or an adaptive patience rule over training signals. Using Qwen3.5-2B/4B agents across three domains (search question answering, mathematical reasoning, and chess puzzles), WHALE outperforms weight-only, harness-only, and Fast-Slow Training by 4.15-24.38 percentage points in best mean@8 accuracy. Either component can be the bottleneck: harness search matches peak weight-only accuracy with far fewer rollouts in SearchQA, but improves math accuracy only after a weight update. Small interleaved updates also outperform stagewise weight-then-harness optimization in accuracy and rollout cost. The code is available at https://github.com/krafton-ai/WHALE.

Benchmarks for vision-language models (VLMs) mostly test observational spatial reasoning: models describe relations already visible in the input. Existing what-if tasks typically vary the observer while keeping the scene fixed. Can VLMs instead predict the consequences of hypothetically moving or rotating an object? We introduce MindEdit-Bench, a benchmark of six spatial reasoning tasks built from three-photo smartphone triplets of newly captured indoor scenes via an automatic in-the-wild 3D scene-graph extraction pipeline. Four tasks probe perception and perspective transformation over observed structure; two new tasks, L4 (spatial editing) and L5 (cross-view visibility editing), probe object-level counterfactual reasoning, where correct answers are absent from all input images. Each question provides 8-24 structured answer choices, enabling answer-letter-level diagnosis of spatial and fallback errors. The benchmark covers 120 private indoor scenes not drawn from public datasets, reducing public-data pretraining-overlap risk. Across 15 VLMs on 1,003 human-verified questions, task-wise mean VLM accuracy is only 8%-31%, versus 81%-97% human majority-vote accuracy. The pooled human--best-VLM gap is 53 pp, with at least 39 pp on every task. The structured answer space further reveals non-uniform failures, including weaker camera-depth-axis inference and fallback behavior on difficult visibility-editing cases.

Large language models often fail to answer questions about a bounded document collection when the source documents are not retrieved at inference time. We study this setting as document knowledge internalization: converting a fixed corpus into usable parametric knowledge for retrieval-free question answering. We propose IAR (Inject, Align, and Recover), a three-stage post-training framework that separates structured document knowledge injection, QA behavior alignment, and general ability recovery. Unlike conventional continued pretraining, Inject converts source documents into continuation, rewrite, and instruction-conditioned reconstruction objectives. Align then adapts the injected model with answer-only QA supervision, while Recover merges the domain-adapted model with the base instruction model to recover general capabilities. Across Common Corpus (CC) and CCI, and across Llama, Phi, Qwen, and SmolLM model families, IAR improves the domain-primary domain-general frontier for retrieval-free document internalization. In the main comparison, IAR improves over Vanilla SFT on all four reported metrics in 7 of 8 dataset-model settings, with average gains of 3.6 percentage points in domain QA accuracy and 12.1 percentage points in mean general performance across IFEval, MMLU, and MSBench. Extended CC baselines show that LoRA and FAPM can win individual general metrics, but among methods that also reach leading or near-leading domain internalization, IAR retains one of the strongest general profiles.

In natural language processing, a recently popular line of work explores how to best report the experimental results of neural networks. One exemplar publication, titled "Show Your Work: Improved Reporting of Experimental Results," advocates for reporting the expected validation effectiveness of the best-tuned model, with respect to the computational budget. In the present work, we critically examine this paper. As far as statistical generalizability is concerned, we find unspoken pitfalls and caveats with this approach. We analytically show that their estimator is biased and uses error-prone assumptions. We find that the estimator favors negative errors and yields poor bootstrapped confidence intervals. We derive an unbiased alternative and bolster our claims with empirical evidence from statistical simulation. Our codebase is at http://github.com/castorini/meanmax.

Real-world machine learning deployments are characterized by mismatches between the source (training) and target (test) distributions that may cause performance drops. In this work, we investigate methods for predicting the target domain accuracy using only labeled source data and unlabeled target data. We propose Average Thresholded Confidence (ATC), a practical method that learns a threshold on the model's confidence, predicting accuracy as the fraction of unlabeled examples for which model confidence exceeds that threshold. ATC outperforms previous methods across several model architectures, types of distribution shifts (e.g., due to synthetic corruptions, dataset reproduction, or novel subpopulations), and datasets (Wilds, ImageNet, Breeds, CIFAR, and MNIST). In our experiments, ATC estimates target performance 2-4times more accurately than prior methods. We also explore the theoretical foundations of the problem, proving that, in general, identifying the accuracy is just as hard as identifying the optimal predictor and thus, the efficacy of any method rests upon (perhaps unstated) assumptions on the nature of the shift. Finally, analyzing our method on some toy distributions, we provide insights concerning when it works. Code is available at https://github.com/saurabhgarg1996/ATC_code/.

We investigate large language model performance across five orders of magnitude of compute scaling in eleven recent model architectures. We show that average benchmark performance, aggregating over many individual tasks and evaluations as in the commonly-used BIG-Bench dataset, is decently predictable as a function of training compute scale. Specifically, when extrapolating BIG-Bench Hard performance across one order of magnitude in compute, we observe average absolute errors of 6 percentage points (pp). By contrast, extrapolation for individual BIG-Bench tasks across an order of magnitude in compute yields higher average errors of 18pp. Nonetheless, individual task performance remains significantly more predictable than chance. Overall, our work suggests compute scaling provides a promising basis to forecast AI capabilities in diverse benchmarks, though predicting performance in specific tasks poses challenges.

In this paper, we present an integrated approach to real-time mosquito detection using our multiclass dataset (MosquitoFusion) containing 1204 diverse images and leverage cutting-edge technologies, specifically computer vision, to automate the identification of Mosquitoes, Swarms, and Breeding Sites. The pre-trained YOLOv8 model, trained on this dataset, achieved a mean Average Precision (mAP@50) of 57.1%, with precision at 73.4% and recall at 50.5%. The integration of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) further enriches the depth of our analysis, providing valuable insights into spatial patterns. The dataset and code are available at https://github.com/faiyazabdullah/MosquitoFusion.

Large language models (LLMs) are now regularly asked to forecast real-world events, but comparisons are often difficult because models receive different information, use different tools, and are evaluated under different rules. This paper reports the completed AI World Cup benchmark, in which ten LLM-based assistants made a single pre-tournament forecast of the entire 2026 FIFA World Cup. Every submission used the same tournament snapshot, prompt, JSON schema, and scoring procedure. The forecasts covered group-stage scores, group rankings, the knockout bracket, final placings, confidence values, and short explanations. After all 104 matches had been played, GPT-5.5 Thinking finished first with 744 points, followed by GPT-5.5 with 717, Gemini with 699, and Qwen 3.7 with 687. GPT-5.5 Thinking was also the only model to select Spain, which defeated Argentina 1--0 in the final, as champion. The final ranking was driven mainly by knockout performance: total score was strongly correlated with knockout points (r=0.986), but showed little relationship with group-stage match points (r=0.055), group-standing points (r=-0.103), or their combined pre-knockout score (r=-0.054). Match-level accuracy produced a different ordering. Claude Sonnet 4.6 correctly predicted the largest number of group-stage outcomes (63.89\%) but placed sixth overall. Average self-reported confidence was also unrelated to either outcome accuracy (r=-0.060) or total score (r=-0.067). The results suggest that forecasting a complete tournament tests something different from predicting matches one at a time, while also showing how strongly a bracket-based leaderboard can depend on scoring design. The benchmark materials, raw responses, and scoring code are released to support replication and future extensions.

Evolving documents, such as laws, tax codes, and software documentation, are amended, replaced, and sometimes reverted over time, so a question has different correct answers at different dates. In contrast to encyclopedic knowledge, where an old fact is simply overwritten, an amendment is itself an official text that states what it replaces and when it takes effect, and the earlier version stays correct for its validity period. The central challenge is therefore version resolution, that is, identifying the version in force on the queried date. Existing temporal QA datasets treat time only as an annotation, so version resolution stays untested. We present TIDE, an expert-verified benchmark of 3,050 QA pairs over 644 official customs instruments issued between 1969 and 2025 by the Government of Bangladesh, covering eight task types over deeply code-mixed documents that are heterogeneous in layout and dated in two calendars. In addition, we evaluate nine recent LLMs under a single protocol across parametric, gold-context, and retrieval access, scored by a three-judge LLM council with a hard date gate separating correct meaning from correct time. The best macro-averaged accuracy is only 68.5%. Resolving a version from an implicit date reaches 59.7%, and detecting that the supplied version does not govern the query reaches only 26.7%. Models are more likely to find correct versions than to reject incorrect ones, and they tend to follow a confident parametric answer over the supplied authoritative text. All code and data are available at https://github.com/icsetepa44/TIDE

Some security-development settings require local models that map an objective to an ordered, checkable plan. We present a low-rank decomposition adapter and release a case-disjoint corpus with 24 authored decompositions and 83 derived next-step examples across 24 satellite-security cases. To prevent reference-plan leakage, prompts contain one objective and eight shuffled SPARTA candidates. The evaluation candidate sets are constructed with oracle inclusion of every reference technique, so this study measures selection from a controlled set, not retrieval. On six fixed cases and five decoding seeds, mean scores vary across adapters and prompted Qwen2.5 baselines; a separate greedy check over three adapter training seeds shows non-negligible training variance. A 24-fold greedy leave-one-case-out control at the two compact sizes likewise shows tradeoffs: at 1.5B, adapter precision is 0.583 against 0.480 for two-shot prompting, while recall is 0.586 against 0.660. Case-resampling intervals for adapter precision relative to the strongest prompted baseline cross zero at 1.5B and 7B. The adapter is also substantially more format-compliant, which prevents attributing all score differences to selection. Autoregressive next-step accuracy is 0.08, 0.06, and 0.29 at 0.5B, 1.5B, and 7B. We therefore offer the formulation, leakage-controlled dataset, reproducibility package, and descriptive analysis as a proof of concept, not evidence of a reliable stand-alone decomposition system or a general adapter advantage. A separate diagnostic tests contract reuse.

While there are numerous benchmarks comparing the performance of modern language models (LMs), end-task evaluations often conflate notions of *factual accuracy* ("truth") and *reasoning ability* ("rationality", or "honesty" in the sense of correctly reporting implications of beliefs). Our goal is a dataset that clearly distinguishes these two notions. Our approach is to leverage and extend a collection of human-annotated *entailment trees*, engineered to express both good and bad chains of reasoning, and using a mixture of true and false facts, in particular including counterfactual examples, to avoid belief bias (also known as the "content effect"). The resulting dataset, called BaRDa, contains 3000 entailments (1787 valid, 1213 invalid), using 6681 true and 2319 false statements. Testing on four GPT-series models, GPT3(curie)/GPT3(davinici)/3.5/4, we find factual accuracy (truth) scores of 74.1/80.6/82.6/87.1 and reasoning accuracy scores of 63.1/78.0/71.8/79.2. This shows the clear progression of models towards improved factual accuracy and entailment reasoning, and the dataset provides a new benchmark that more cleanly separates and quantifies these two notions.

Correctness of instance segmentation constitutes counting the number of objects, correctly localizing all predictions and classifying each localized prediction. Average Precision is the de-facto metric used to measure all these constituents of segmentation. However, this metric does not penalize duplicate predictions in the high-recall range, and cannot distinguish instances that are localized correctly but categorized incorrectly. This weakness has inadvertently led to network designs that achieve significant gains in AP but also introduce a large number of false positives. We therefore cannot rely on AP to choose a model that provides an optimal tradeoff between false positives and high recall. To resolve this dilemma, we review alternative metrics in the literature and propose two new measures to explicitly measure the amount of both spatial and categorical duplicate predictions. We also propose a Semantic Sorting and NMS module to remove these duplicates based on a pixel occupancy matching scheme. Experiments show that modern segmentation networks have significant gains in AP, but also contain a considerable amount of duplicates. Our Semantic Sorting and NMS can be added as a plug-and-play module to mitigate hedged predictions and preserve AP.

The stock market presents a challenging environment for accurately predicting future stock prices due to its intricate and ever-changing nature. However, the utilization of advanced methodologies can significantly enhance the precision of stock price predictions. One such method is Hidden Markov Models (HMMs). HMMs are statistical models that can be used to model the behavior of a partially observable system, making them suitable for modeling stock prices based on historical data. Accurate stock price predictions can help traders make better investment decisions, leading to increased profits. In this article, we trained and tested a Hidden Markov Model for the purpose of predicting a stock closing price based on its opening price and the preceding day's prices. The model's performance has been evaluated using two indicators: Mean Average Prediction Error (MAPE), which specifies the average accuracy of our model, and Directional Prediction Accuracy (DPA), a newly introduced indicator that accounts for the number of fractional change predictions that are correct in sign.

This study concentrates on evaluating the efficacy of Large Language Models (LLMs) in healthcare, with a specific focus on their application in personal anomalous health monitoring. Our research primarily investigates the capabilities of LLMs in interpreting and analyzing physiological data obtained from FDA-approved devices. We conducted an extensive analysis using anomalous physiological data gathered in a simulated low-air-pressure plateau environment. This allowed us to assess the precision and reliability of LLMs in understanding and evaluating users' health status with notable specificity. Our findings reveal that LLMs exhibit exceptional performance in determining medical indicators, including a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of less than 1 beat per minute for heart rate and less than 1% for oxygen saturation (SpO2). Furthermore, the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) for these evaluations remained below 1%, with the overall accuracy of health assessments surpassing 85%. In image analysis tasks, such as interpreting photoplethysmography (PPG) data, our specially adapted GPT models demonstrated remarkable proficiency, achieving less than 1 bpm error in cycle count and 7.28 MAE for heart rate estimation. This study highlights LLMs' dual role as health data analysis tools and pivotal elements in advanced AI health assistants, offering personalized health insights and recommendations within the future health assistant framework.

Benchmarks are pivotal in driving AI progress, and invalid benchmark questions frequently undermine their reliability. Manually identifying and correcting errors among thousands of benchmark questions is not only infeasible but also a critical bottleneck for reliable evaluation. In this work, we introduce a framework for systematic benchmark revision that leverages statistical analysis of response patterns to flag potentially invalid questions for further expert review. Our approach builds on a core assumption commonly used in AI evaluations that the mean score sufficiently summarizes model performance. This implies a unidimensional latent construct underlying the measurement experiment, yielding expected ranges for various statistics for each item. When empirically estimated values for these statistics fall outside the expected range for an item, the item is more likely to be problematic. Across nine widely used benchmarks, our method guides expert review to identify problematic questions with up to 84\% precision. In addition, we introduce an LLM-judge first pass to review questions, further reducing human effort. Together, these components provide an efficient and scalable framework for systematic benchmark revision.

We propose a new test to measure a text model's multitask accuracy. The test covers 57 tasks including elementary mathematics, US history, computer science, law, and more. To attain high accuracy on this test, models must possess extensive world knowledge and problem solving ability. We find that while most recent models have near random-chance accuracy, the very largest GPT-3 model improves over random chance by almost 20 percentage points on average. However, on every one of the 57 tasks, the best models still need substantial improvements before they can reach expert-level accuracy. Models also have lopsided performance and frequently do not know when they are wrong. Worse, they still have near-random accuracy on some socially important subjects such as morality and law. By comprehensively evaluating the breadth and depth of a model's academic and professional understanding, our test can be used to analyze models across many tasks and to identify important shortcomings.

EasyMath is a compact benchmark for practical math reasoning in small language models. It covers thirteen categories, from basic arithmetic and order of operations to word problems, algebraic expressions, edge cases, and omits specialist topics. We tested 23 models (14M to 4B parameters) using exact, numerical, and symbolic checks on free-form answers in a zero-shot setting. Accuracy rises with size and training, chain-of-thought adds modest gains, and consistency improves at scale.

LLM-as-a-Judge (LLMaaJ) now underpins scalable evaluation, yet we lack a decisive test of a judge's qualification: can it recover a conversation's latent objective and know when that inference is trustworthy? LLMs degrade under irrelevant or long context; multi-turn jailbreaks further hide goals across turns. We introduce ObjexMT, a benchmark for objective extraction and metacognition. Given a multi-turn transcript, a model must return a one-sentence base objective and a self-reported confidence. Accuracy is computed via LLM-judge semantic similarity to gold objectives, converted to binary correctness by a single human-aligned threshold calibrated once on N = 100 items (tau^*=0.61). Metacognition is evaluated with ECE, Brier, Wrong-at-High-Conf, and risk-coverage. Across gpt-4.1, claude-sonnet-4, and Qwen3-235B-A22B-FP8 on SafeMTData_Attack600, SafeMTData_1K, MHJ, and CoSafe, claude-sonnet-4 attains the best objective-extraction accuracy (0.515) and calibration (ECE 0.296; Brier 0.324); gpt-4.1 and Qwen3-235B-A22B-FP8 tie at 0.441 but are overconfident (mean confidence approx0.88 vs. accuracy approx0.44; Wrong-at-0.90 approx48-52%). Performance varies by dataset (approx0.167-0.865). ObjexMT thus supplies an actionable test for LLM judges: when objectives are not explicit, judges often misinfer them with high confidence. We recommend exposing objectives when feasible and gating decisions by confidence otherwise. Code and data at https://github.com/hyunjun1121/ObjexMT_dataset.

The development of large-scale Chinese language models is flourishing, yet there is a lack of corresponding capability assessments. Therefore, we propose a test to measure the multitask accuracy of large Chinese language models. This test encompasses four major domains, including medicine, law, psychology, and education, with 15 subtasks in medicine and 8 subtasks in education. We found that the best-performing models in the zero-shot setting outperformed the worst-performing models by nearly 18.6 percentage points on average. Across the four major domains, the highest average zero-shot accuracy of all models is 0.512. In the subdomains, only the GPT-3.5-turbo model achieved a zero-shot accuracy of 0.693 in clinical medicine, which was the highest accuracy among all models across all subtasks. All models performed poorly in the legal domain, with the highest zero-shot accuracy reaching only 0.239. By comprehensively evaluating the breadth and depth of knowledge across multiple disciplines, this test can more accurately identify the shortcomings of the models.

Language models are increasingly used in Brazil, but most evaluation remains English-centric. This paper presents Alvorada-Bench, a 4,515-question, text-only benchmark drawn from five Brazilian university entrance examinations. Evaluating twenty models under zero-shot, role-playing, and chain-of-thought prompting, producing 270,900 responses with structured self-reports of confidence, perceived difficulty, and Bloom level. The top models exceed 94% accuracy overall, but accuracy declines on Mathematics and on the engineering oriented IME and ITA exams, indicating persistent weaknesses in multi-step reasoning. Confidence is well calibrated and correlates with perceived difficulty, revealing that models can accurately assess their own certainty capabilities. A cost accuracy analysis shows that high accuracy is achievable at under $2 per 1K tokens. On ENEM 2024 the top model (O3) achieved perfect scores in Languages subject questions while even the weakest system (GPT-4.1 Nano) only underperforms humans in Mathematics. Through exams that distill decades of Brazilian educational priorities and assess millions of students yearly, Alvorada-Bench establishes whether language models can navigate the intersection of language, culture, and reasoning that defines academic readiness in Brazil.

Large reasoning models achieve strong performance on complex tasks by generating extended chains of thought, but they often "overthink": continuing to reason long after they have enough information to answer correctly. This wastes inference-time compute and can hurt accuracy. Existing attempts to stop early either manipulate decoding with extra sampling and heuristics, rely on auxiliary verifier models, or operate only as post-hoc analysis pipelines without formal guarantees. We introduce LYNX, an online early-exit mechanism that turns a model's own hidden-state awareness into confidence-controlled stopping decisions. LYNX attaches exit decisions to naturally occurring reasoning cues (e.g., "hmm", "wait") during generation, trains a lightweight probe on hidden states at those cue tokens using supervision from forced exits, and wraps the resulting scores in split conformal prediction to obtain distribution-free control over premature exits. Crucially, we train and calibrate this probe once on a generic mathematical corpus and reuse it unchanged across benchmarks, decoding temperatures, and even non-mathematical tasks. Across three model families spanning 1.5B to 32B parameters, a single mathematically trained probe per base model yields strong accuracy--efficiency tradeoffs. On GSM8K, LYNX matches or improves baseline accuracy while reducing tokens by 40--65\%; on MATH-500 it improves accuracy by up to 12 points with roughly 35--60\% fewer tokens; on AIME 2024 it recovers baseline accuracy with more than 50\% token savings; and on CommonsenseQA, a non-math benchmark, it transfers zero-shot with modest accuracy gains and up to 70\% fewer tokens. Compared to state-of-the-art early-exit methods, LYNX offers competitive or superior Pareto frontiers while remaining fully online, requiring no proxy models at inference, and providing explicit, user-tunable confidence guarantees.

This paper provides an experimentally verified formal law for calculating the uplift that diversity of thought provides in Large Language Model (LLM) ensembles. From first principles, we derive an exact decomposition of LLM ensemble lift into rescue and damage masses, which yields a compact heuristic for calculating uplift. From this we extract the metrics which predict ensemble performance: an accuracy adjusted correctness correlation, ϕ_{adj}, together with the accuracy gap and collective accuracy of the pair. We test the law on 767,520 inferences from ten open-weight models over two graduate-level science benchmarks, together with a novel agentic cybersecurity benchmark in which each model conducts digital-forensics investigations by multi-turn tool use in a network-isolated sandbox (23,520 graded trials including abstentions); all votes are released openly. Calibrated once on SuperGPQA at a 40:60 vote split, the heuristic predicts lift on the calibration set with Spearman's ρ=0.84 and, with its coefficients frozen, transfers to two datasets never used in calibration (ρ=0.51 on GPQA Diamond and 0.84 on the forensic tasks), whilst the measured swap mass tracks realised lift with R^2ge 0.96 throughout. Raw ϕ has almost no predictive power (R^2le 0.09 throughout); the accuracy-adjusted ϕ_{adj} is markedly superior (R^2=0.67 on SuperGPQA), and the heuristic combining these metrics is the most stable pre pooling predictor across the three datasets.

This technical report describes our QuAVF@NTU-NVIDIA submission to the Ego4D Talking to Me (TTM) Challenge 2023. Based on the observation from the TTM task and the provided dataset, we propose to use two separate models to process the input videos and audio. By doing so, we can utilize all the labeled training data, including those without bounding box labels. Furthermore, we leverage the face quality score from a facial landmark prediction model for filtering noisy face input data. The face quality score is also employed in our proposed quality-aware fusion for integrating the results from two branches. With the simple architecture design, our model achieves 67.4% mean average precision (mAP) on the test set, which ranks first on the leaderboard and outperforms the baseline method by a large margin. Code is available at: https://github.com/hsi-che-lin/Ego4D-QuAVF-TTM-CVPR23

We estimate ([M/H], [alpha/M]) for 48 million giants and dwarfs in low-dust extinction regions from the Gaia DR3 XP spectra by using tree-based machine-learning models trained on APOGEE DR17 and metal-poor star sample from Li et al. The root mean square error of our estimation is 0.0890 dex for [M/H] and 0.0436 dex for [alpha/M], when we evaluate our models on the test data that are not used in training the models. Because the training data is dominated by giants, our estimation is most reliable for giants. The high-[alpha/M] stars and low-[alpha/M] stars selected by our ([M/H], [alpha/M]) show different kinematical properties for giants and low-temperature dwarfs. We further investigate how our machine-learning models extract information on ([M/H], [alpha/M]). Intriguingly, we find that our models seem to extract information on [alpha/M] from Na D lines (589 nm) and Mg I line (516 nm). This result is understandable given the observed correlation between Na and Mg abundances in the literature. The catalog of ([M/H], [alpha/M]) as well as their associated uncertainties are publicly available online.

Comprehensive evaluations of language models (LM) during both development and deployment phases are necessary because these models possess numerous capabilities (e.g., mathematical reasoning, legal support, or medical diagnostic) as well as safety risks (e.g., racial bias, toxicity, or misinformation). The average score across a wide range of benchmarks provides a signal that helps guide the use of these LMs in practice. Currently, holistic evaluations are costly due to the large volume of benchmark questions, making frequent evaluations impractical. A popular attempt to lower the cost is to compute the average score on a subset of the benchmark. This approach, unfortunately, often renders an unreliable measure of LM performance because the average score is often confounded with the difficulty of the questions in the benchmark subset. Item response theory (IRT) was designed to address this challenge, providing a reliable measurement by careful controlling for question difficulty. Unfortunately, question difficulty is expensive to estimate. Facing this challenge, we train a model that predicts question difficulty from its content, enabling a reliable measurement at a fraction of the cost. In addition, we leverage this difficulty predictor to further improve the evaluation efficiency through training a question generator given a difficulty level. This question generator is essential in adaptive testing, where, instead of using a random subset of the benchmark questions, informative questions are adaptively chosen based on the current estimation of LLM performance. Experiments on 22 common natural language benchmarks and 172 LMs show that this approach is more reliable and efficient compared to current common practice.

We build four new test sets for the Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) and evaluate the ability of question-answering systems to generalize to new data. Our first test set is from the original Wikipedia domain and measures the extent to which existing systems overfit the original test set. Despite several years of heavy test set re-use, we find no evidence of adaptive overfitting. The remaining three test sets are constructed from New York Times articles, Reddit posts, and Amazon product reviews and measure robustness to natural distribution shifts. Across a broad range of models, we observe average performance drops of 3.8, 14.0, and 17.4 F1 points, respectively. In contrast, a strong human baseline matches or exceeds the performance of SQuAD models on the original domain and exhibits little to no drop in new domains. Taken together, our results confirm the surprising resilience of the holdout method and emphasize the need to move towards evaluation metrics that incorporate robustness to natural distribution shifts.

Large language models (LLMs) have achieved impressive success on many benchmarks for mathematical reasoning. However, there is growing concern that some of this performance actually reflects dataset contamination, where data closely resembling benchmark questions leaks into the training data, instead of true reasoning ability. To investigate this claim rigorously, we commission Grade School Math 1000 (GSM1k). GSM1k is designed to mirror the style and complexity of the established GSM8k benchmark, the gold standard for measuring elementary mathematical reasoning. We ensure that the two benchmarks are comparable across important metrics such as human solve rates, number of steps in solution, answer magnitude, and more. When evaluating leading open- and closed-source LLMs on GSM1k, we observe accuracy drops of up to 13%, with several families of models (e.g., Phi and Mistral) showing evidence of systematic overfitting across almost all model sizes. At the same time, many models, especially those on the frontier, (e.g., Gemini/GPT/Claude) show minimal signs of overfitting. Further analysis suggests a positive relationship (Spearman's r^2=0.32) between a model's probability of generating an example from GSM8k and its performance gap between GSM8k and GSM1k, suggesting that many models may have partially memorized GSM8k.

Instruction tuned reasoning models are increasingly deployed with safety classifiers trained on frozen embeddings, assuming representation stability across model updates. We systematically investigate this assumption and find it fails: normalized perturbations of magnitude σ=0.02 (corresponding to approx 1^circ angular drift on the embedding sphere) reduce classifier performance from 85% to 50% ROC-AUC. Critically, mean confidence only drops 14%, producing dangerous silent failures where 72% of misclassifications occur with high confidence, defeating standard monitoring. We further show that instruction-tuned models exhibit 20% worse class separability than base models, making aligned systems paradoxically harder to safeguard. Our findings expose a fundamental fragility in production AI safety architectures and challenge the assumption that safety mechanisms transfer across model versions.

In reasoning tasks, even a minor error can cascade into inaccurate results, leading to suboptimal performance of large language models in such domains. Earlier fine-tuning approaches sought to mitigate this by leveraging more precise supervisory signals from human labeling, larger models, or self-sampling, although at a high cost. Conversely, we develop a method that avoids external resources, relying instead on introducing perturbations to the input. Our training approach randomly masks certain tokens within the chain of thought, a technique we found to be particularly effective for reasoning tasks. When applied to fine-tuning with GSM8K, this method achieved a 5% improvement in accuracy over standard supervised fine-tuning with a few codes modified and no additional labeling effort. Furthermore, it is complementary to existing methods. When integrated with related data augmentation methods, it leads to an average improvement of 3% improvement in GSM8K accuracy and 1% improvement in MATH accuracy across five datasets of various quality and size, as well as two base models. We further investigate the mechanisms behind this improvement through case studies and quantitative analysis, suggesting that our approach may provide superior support for the model in capturing long-distance dependencies, especially those related to questions. This enhancement could deepen understanding of premises in questions and prior steps. Our code is available at Github.

Recent advancements in large language models (LLMs) have shown their remarkable capacities in many NLP tasks. However, their substantial size often presents challenges for deployment. This necessitates efficient techniques for model compression, with quantization emerging as a prominent solution. Despite its benefits, the exact impact of quantization (from 2- to 6-bit) on the performance and accuracy of LLMs remains an active area of research. This paper investigates the performance of eight LLMs at various quantization levels, focusing on tasks such as MMLU-Pro for knowledge processing and reasoning, CRUXEval for code comprehension, and MuSR for reading comprehension. Our results show a consistent trend where higher precision (e.g., 8-bit Q8\_0) yields improved performance, albeit with diminishing returns. Aggressive quantization (e.g., 2-bit Q2\_K) usually retains acceptable accuracy, though some models show a substantial loss in performance. Our findings indicate that while lower bit precision generally reduces performance, the impact varies across models and tasks. Larger models show greater resilience to aggressive quantization, but can still undergo significant drops at lower precision levels. Mid-sized models in the 7-9 billion parameter range strike an optimal balance between efficiency and resource usage. Such results provide insights into the trade-offs between model size, quantization, and performance.

Critique, as a natural language description for assessing the quality of model-generated content, has been proven to play an essential role in the training, evaluation, and refinement of Large Language Models (LLMs). However, there is a lack of principled understanding in evaluating the quality of the critique itself. In this paper, we pioneer the critique of critique, termed MetaCritique, which is a framework to evaluate the critique from two aspects, i.e., factuality as precision score and comprehensiveness as recall score. We calculate the harmonic mean of precision and recall as the overall rating called F1 score. To obtain a reliable evaluation outcome, we propose Atomic Information Units (AIUs), which describe the critique in a more fine-grained manner. MetaCritique takes each AIU into account and aggregates each AIU's judgment for the overall score. Moreover, given the evaluation process involves intricate reasoning, our MetaCritique provides a natural language rationale to support each judgment. We construct a meta-evaluation dataset containing 300 critiques (2653 AIUs) across four tasks (question answering, reasoning, entailment, and summarization), and we conduct a comparative study to demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness. Experiments also show superior critique judged by MetaCritique leads to better refinement, indicating generative artificial intelligence indeed has the potential to be significantly advanced with our MetaCritique. We will release relevant code and meta-evaluation datasets at https://github.com/GAIR-NLP/MetaCritique.

Large Language Models (LLMs) vary in their abilities on a range of tasks. Initiatives such as the Open LLM Leaderboard aim to quantify these differences with several large benchmarks (sets of test items to which an LLM can respond either correctly or incorrectly). However, high correlations within and between benchmark scores suggest that (1) there exists a small set of common underlying abilities that these benchmarks measure, and (2) items tap into redundant information and the benchmarks may thus be considerably compressed. We use data from n > 5000 LLMs to identify the most informative items of six benchmarks, ARC, GSM8K, HellaSwag, MMLU, TruthfulQA and WinoGrande (with d=28,632 items in total). From them we distill a sparse benchmark, metabench, that has less than 3% of the original size of all six benchmarks combined. This new sparse benchmark goes beyond point scores by yielding estimators of the underlying benchmark-specific abilities. We show that these estimators (1) can be used to reconstruct each original individual benchmark score with, on average, 1.5% root mean square error (RMSE), (2) reconstruct the original total score with 0.8% RMSE, and (3) have a single underlying common factor whose Spearman correlation with the total score is r = 0.93.

The Kov\'ats Retention index (RI) is a quantity measured using gas chromatography and commonly used in the identification of chemical structures. Creating libraries of observed RI values is a laborious task, so we explore the use of a deep neural network for predicting RI values from structure for standard semipolar columns. This network generated predictions with a mean absolute error of 15.1 and, in a quantification of the tail of the error distribution, a 95th percentile absolute error of 46.5. Because of the Artificial Intelligence Retention Indices (AIRI) network's accuracy, it was used to predict RI values for the NIST EI-MS spectral libraries. These RI values are used to improve chemical identification methods and the quality of the library. Estimating uncertainty is an important practical need when using prediction models. To quantify the uncertainty of our network for each individual prediction, we used the outputs of an ensemble of 8 networks to calculate a predicted standard deviation for each RI value prediction. This predicted standard deviation was corrected to follow the error between observed and predicted RI values. The Z scores using these predicted standard deviations had a standard deviation of 1.52 and a 95th percentile absolute Z score corresponding to a mean RI value of 42.6.

Motion artefacts in magnetic resonance brain images can have a strong impact on diagnostic confidence. The assessment of MR image quality is fundamental before proceeding with the clinical diagnosis. Motion artefacts can alter the delineation of structures such as the brain, lesions or tumours and may require a repeat scan. Otherwise, an inaccurate (e.g. correct pathology but wrong severity) or incorrect diagnosis (e.g. wrong pathology) may occur. "Image quality assessment" as a fast, automated step right after scanning can assist in deciding if the acquired images are diagnostically sufficient. An automated image quality assessment based on the structural similarity index (SSIM) regression through a residual neural network is proposed in this work. Additionally, a classification into different groups - by subdividing with SSIM ranges - is evaluated. Importantly, this method predicts SSIM values of an input image in the absence of a reference ground truth image. The networks were able to detect motion artefacts, and the best performance for the regression and classification task has always been achieved with ResNet-18 with contrast augmentation. The mean and standard deviation of residuals' distribution were mu=-0.0009 and sigma=0.0139, respectively. Whilst for the classification task in 3, 5 and 10 classes, the best accuracies were 97, 95 and 89\%, respectively. The results show that the proposed method could be a tool for supporting neuro-radiologists and radiographers in evaluating image quality quickly.

This paper describes our 3^{rd} place submission in the AVeriTeC shared task in which we attempted to address the challenge of fact-checking with evidence retrieved in the wild using a simple scheme of Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) designed for the task, leveraging the predictive power of Large Language Models. We release our codebase and explain its two modules - the Retriever and the Evidence & Label generator - in detail, justifying their features such as MMR-reranking and Likert-scale confidence estimation. We evaluate our solution on AVeriTeC dev and test set and interpret the results, picking the GPT-4o as the most appropriate model for our pipeline at the time of our publication, with Llama 3.1 70B being a promising open-source alternative. We perform an empirical error analysis to see that faults in our predictions often coincide with noise in the data or ambiguous fact-checks, provoking further research and data augmentation.

Mathematical capabilities were previously believed to emerge in common language models only at a very large scale or require extensive math-related pre-training. This paper shows that the LLaMA-2 7B model with common pre-training already exhibits strong mathematical abilities, as evidenced by its impressive accuracy of 97.7% and 72.0% on the GSM8K and MATH benchmarks, respectively, when selecting the best response from 256 random generations. The primary issue with the current base model is the difficulty in consistently eliciting its inherent mathematical capabilities. Notably, the accuracy for the first answer drops to 49.5% and 7.9% on the GSM8K and MATH benchmarks, respectively. We find that simply scaling up the SFT data can significantly enhance the reliability of generating correct answers. However, the potential for extensive scaling is constrained by the scarcity of publicly available math questions. To overcome this limitation, we employ synthetic data, which proves to be nearly as effective as real data and shows no clear saturation when scaled up to approximately one million samples. This straightforward approach achieves an accuracy of 82.6% on GSM8K and 40.6% on MATH using LLaMA-2 7B models, surpassing previous models by 14.2% and 20.8%, respectively. We also provide insights into scaling behaviors across different reasoning complexities and error types.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are widely used as automated judges, where practical value depends on both accuracy and trustworthy, risk-aware judgments. Existing approaches predominantly focus on accuracy, overlooking the necessity of well-calibrated confidence, which is vital for adaptive and reliable evaluation pipelines. In this work, we advocate a shift from accuracy-centric evaluation to confidence-driven, risk-aware LLM-as-a-Judge systems, emphasizing the necessity of well-calibrated confidence for trustworthy and adaptive evaluation. We systematically identify the Overconfidence Phenomenon in current LLM-as-a-Judges, where predicted confidence significantly overstates actual correctness, undermining reliability in practical deployment. To quantify this phenomenon, we introduce TH-Score, a novel metric measuring confidence-accuracy alignment. Furthermore, we propose LLM-as-a-Fuser, an ensemble framework that transforms LLMs into reliable, risk-aware evaluators. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our approach substantially improves calibration and enables adaptive, confidence-driven evaluation pipelines, achieving superior reliability and accuracy compared to existing baselines.

Audio tagging is an active research area and has a wide range of applications. Since the release of AudioSet, great progress has been made in advancing model performance, which mostly comes from the development of novel model architectures and attention modules. However, we find that appropriate training techniques are equally important for building audio tagging models with AudioSet, but have not received the attention they deserve. To fill the gap, in this work, we present PSLA, a collection of training techniques that can noticeably boost the model accuracy including ImageNet pretraining, balanced sampling, data augmentation, label enhancement, model aggregation and their design choices. By training an EfficientNet with these techniques, we obtain a single model (with 13.6M parameters) and an ensemble model that achieve mean average precision (mAP) scores of 0.444 and 0.474 on AudioSet, respectively, outperforming the previous best system of 0.439 with 81M parameters. In addition, our model also achieves a new state-of-the-art mAP of 0.567 on FSD50K.

We present ZAYA1-8B, a reasoning-focused mixture-of-experts (MoE) model with 700M active and 8B total parameters, built on Zyphra's MoE++ architecture. ZAYA1-8B's core pretraining, midtraining, and supervised fine-tuning (SFT) were performed on a full-stack AMD compute, networking, and software platform. With under 1B active parameters, ZAYA1-8B matches or exceeds DeepSeek-R1-0528 on several challenging mathematics and coding benchmarks, and remains competitive with substantially larger open-weight reasoning models. ZAYA1-8B was trained from scratch for reasoning, with reasoning data included from pretraining onward using an answer-preserving trimming scheme. Post-training uses a four-stage RL cascade: reasoning warmup on math and puzzles; a 400-task RLVE-Gym curriculum; math and code RL with test-time compute traces and synthetic code environments built from competitive-programming references; and behavioral RL for chat and instruction following. We also introduce Markovian RSA, a test-time compute method that recursively aggregates parallel reasoning traces while carrying forward only bounded-length reasoning tails between rounds. In TTC evaluation, Markovian RSA raises ZAYA1-8B to 91.9\% on AIME'25 and 89.6\% on HMMT'25 while carrying forward only a 4K-token tail, narrowing the gap to much larger reasoning models including Gemini-2.5 Pro, DeepSeek-V3.2, and GPT-5-High.

Models trained on different datasets can be merged by a weighted-averaging of their parameters, but why does it work and when can it fail? Here, we connect the inaccuracy of weighted-averaging to mismatches in the gradients and propose a new uncertainty-based scheme to improve the performance by reducing the mismatch. The connection also reveals implicit assumptions in other schemes such as averaging, task arithmetic, and Fisher-weighted averaging. Our new method gives consistent improvements for large language models and vision transformers, both in terms of performance and robustness to hyperparameters.

Bounding boxes uniquely characterize object detection, where a good detector gives accurate bounding boxes of categories of interest. However, in the real-world where test ground truths are not provided, it is non-trivial to find out whether bounding boxes are accurate, thus preventing us from assessing the detector generalization ability. In this work, we find under feature map dropout, good detectors tend to output bounding boxes whose locations do not change much, while bounding boxes of poor detectors will undergo noticeable position changes. We compute the box stability score (BoS score) to reflect this stability. Specifically, given an image, we compute a normal set of bounding boxes and a second set after feature map dropout. To obtain BoS score, we use bipartite matching to find the corresponding boxes between the two sets and compute the average Intersection over Union (IoU) across the entire test set. We contribute to finding that BoS score has a strong, positive correlation with detection accuracy measured by mean average precision (mAP) under various test environments. This relationship allows us to predict the accuracy of detectors on various real-world test sets without accessing test ground truths, verified on canonical detection tasks such as vehicle detection and pedestrian detection. Code and data are available at https://github.com/YangYangGirl/BoS.

Take three frontier mixture-of-experts models (Alibaba, OpenAI, NVIDIA; 3.6-4.0B active parameters each) and fine-tune them to reason in a low-resource language. On accuracy benchmarks almost nothing happens, and the benchmark itself is noise at this scale: changing only the random seed moves the score by 7.7 points, more than every data and recipe effect we measured. That null is our first result. The real changes live where accuracy cannot see. Base models never think in Greek: 0 of 1,000 reasoning traces, even when the question is Greek, so the model answers correctly while reasoning in a form its user cannot read, audit, or correct. After supervised fine-tuning (SFT), every released checkpoint reasons in the language of the question on ~98% of items, one family at 3x fewer tokens, with judged grammaticality improving on all four models and general ability within a few points of each base: nothing was forgotten, and fluency was gained. We propose six behavioural dimensions that make such changes measurable, each gated to reject any metric that correlates with output length, and we report how our own instruments lied: six failures, each caught by a control. What SFT cannot do is fix its own defects: a quarter of answers skip the requested format, answers leak into the reasoning channel, and an explicit "think in English" is obeyed under half the time. Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards, pre-registered before training, fixes the first two outright (fallback 24% to 2.5%, leak 3.5% to 0.0%, both against a flat random-reward control) and moves the third (+9.1pp), while the Greek reasoning habit survives an accuracy-only gradient untouched. We release five checkpoints. The instruments, the controls and the pre-registration travel to any low-resource language; Greek is the case that let us measure them.

Despite the popularity of guitar effects, there is very little existing research on classification and parameter estimation of specific plugins or effect units from guitar recordings. In this paper, convolutional neural networks were used for classification and parameter estimation for 13 overdrive, distortion and fuzz guitar effects. A novel dataset of processed electric guitar samples was assembled, with four sub-datasets consisting of monophonic or polyphonic samples and discrete or continuous settings values, for a total of about 250 hours of processed samples. Results were compared for networks trained and tested on the same or on a different sub-dataset. We found that discrete datasets could lead to equally high performance as continuous ones, whilst being easier to design, analyse and modify. Classification accuracy was above 80\%, with confusion matrices reflecting similarities in the effects timbre and circuits design. With parameter values between 0.0 and 1.0, the mean absolute error is in most cases below 0.05, while the root mean square error is below 0.1 in all cases but one.

Purpose: The capacity to isolate and recognize individual characters from facsimile images of papyrus manuscripts yields rich opportunities for digital analysis. For this reason the `ICDAR 2023 Competition on Detection and Recognition of Greek Letters on Papyri' was held as part of the 17th International Conference on Document Analysis and Recognition. This paper discusses our submission to the competition. Methods: We used an ensemble of YOLOv8 models to detect and classify individual characters and employed two different approaches for refining the character predictions, including a transformer based DeiT approach and a ResNet-50 model trained on a large corpus of unlabelled data using SimCLR, a self-supervised learning method. Results: Our submission won the recognition challenge with a mAP of 42.2%, and was runner-up in the detection challenge with a mean average precision (mAP) of 51.4%. At the more relaxed intersection over union threshold of 0.5, we achieved the highest mean average precision and mean average recall results for both detection and classification. Conclusion: The results demonstrate the potential for these techniques for automated character recognition on historical manuscripts. We ran the prediction pipeline on more than 4,500 images from the Oxyrhynchus Papyri to illustrate the utility of our approach, and we release the results publicly in multiple formats.

Using drones to track multiple individuals simultaneously in their natural environment is a powerful approach for better understanding group primate behavior. Previous studies have demonstrated that it is possible to automate the classification of primate behavior from video data, but these studies have been carried out in captivity or from ground-based cameras. To understand group behavior and the self-organization of a collective, the whole troop needs to be seen at a scale where behavior can be seen in relation to the natural environment in which ecological decisions are made. This study presents a novel dataset from drone videos for baboon detection, tracking, and behavior recognition. The baboon detection dataset was created by manually annotating all baboons in drone videos with bounding boxes. A tiling method was subsequently applied to create a pyramid of images at various scales from the original 5.3K resolution images, resulting in approximately 30K images used for baboon detection. The tracking dataset is derived from the detection dataset, where all bounding boxes are assigned the same ID throughout the video. This process resulted in half an hour of very dense tracking data. The behavior recognition dataset was generated by converting tracks into mini-scenes, a video subregion centered on each animal; each mini-scene was manually annotated with 12 distinct behavior types, resulting in over 20 hours of data. Benchmark results show mean average precision (mAP) of 92.62\% for the YOLOv8-X detection model, multiple object tracking precision (MOTA) of 63.81\% for the BotSort tracking algorithm, and micro top-1 accuracy of 63.97\% for the X3D behavior recognition model. Using deep learning to classify wildlife behavior from drone footage facilitates non-invasive insight into the collective behavior of an entire group.

In this paper, we describe a feedforward artificial neural network trained on the ImageNet 2012 contest dataset [7] with the new method of [5] to an accuracy rate of 98.3% with a 99.69 Top-1 rate, and an average of 285.9 labels that are perfectly classified over the 10 batch partitions of the dataset. The best performing model uses 322,430,160 parameters, with 4 decimal places precision. We conjecture that the reason our model does not achieve a 100% accuracy rate is due to a double-labeling problem, by which there are duplicate images in the dataset with different labels.

We develop an algorithm which exceeds the performance of board certified cardiologists in detecting a wide range of heart arrhythmias from electrocardiograms recorded with a single-lead wearable monitor. We build a dataset with more than 500 times the number of unique patients than previously studied corpora. On this dataset, we train a 34-layer convolutional neural network which maps a sequence of ECG samples to a sequence of rhythm classes. Committees of board-certified cardiologists annotate a gold standard test set on which we compare the performance of our model to that of 6 other individual cardiologists. We exceed the average cardiologist performance in both recall (sensitivity) and precision (positive predictive value).

This article presents an experiment in fine-tuning a pretrained causal language model (Meta's Llama 3.1 8B Instruct) for aiding in three fundamental tasks of philological research: chronological and geographic attribution as well as text restoration in ancient Greek inscriptions and documentary papyri. Using a prompt-based instruct approach, the fine-tuned models surpass the state of the art in key metrics. For inscriptions, the models achieve a lower average character error rate (CER) of 22.5% (vs. 26.3%), while closely matching top-1 accuracy (60.9% vs. 61.8%) and top-20 accuracy (77.5% vs. 78.3%) for sequences up to 10 characters. They also provide a practical advantage by ignoring spaces during reconstruction, aligning better with the scriptio continua typically used in ancient written artifacts. In geographic attribution, the model outperforms previous benchmarks with a top-1 accuracy of 75.0% (vs. 70.8%) and a top-3 accuracy of 83.7% (vs. 82.1%). For dating, it achieves an average deviation of 26.2 years (vs. 29.3) and a median deviation of 1 year (vs. 3) from the actual date range. The models also set new baselines for documentary papyri, with a CER of 16.3%, a top-1 accuracy of 71.3%, and top-20 of 85.0% in text reconstruction; a top-1 accuracy of 66.4% and top-3 of 79.9% in geographic attribution; and, in chronological attribution, a deviation of 21.7 years from the actual termini post/ante quem, with a median deviation of 0 years.

Annotation quality is difficult to sustain when campaigns span weeks or months with small annotator pools. We present a Setswana sentiment dataset of 3,565 tweets annotated by three native-speaker annotators across eight batches and examine why inter-annotator agreement (IAA) declines over time. Despite an aggregate Randolph's free-marginal Kappa of κ= 0.76, "excellent," per-batch κ falls by more than 32 points across the annotation task. Through six targeted analyses, we find that (i) label confusion concentrates on the negative/neutral boundary, (ii) two annotators show run-length drift consistent with autopilot labeling, and (iii) the dominant predictor of κ is temporal simultaneity: tweets labeled within one minute achieve κ= 0.98, while those labeled more than a day apart reach only κ= 0.65. Annotation speed and tweet-level linguistic features show no meaningful association with κ. We benchmark three open multilingual encoders and proprietary models (GPT-5 and Gemini) on three-class sentiment classification; fine-tuning yields gains of 29 to 43 macro-F1 points over pretrained baselines, with GPT-5 few-shot leading overall (62.2 macro-F1). We release the dataset, per-annotation timestamps, and analysis code to support reproducible quality auditing for future African language NLP resources.

We present our winning system for Task~B (generation with reference passages) in SemEval-2026 Task~8: MTRAGEval. Our method is a heterogeneous ensemble of seven LLMs with two prompting variants, where a GPT-4o-mini judge selects the best candidate per instance. We ranked 1st out of 26 teams, achieving a conditioned harmonic mean of 0.7827 and outperforming the strongest baseline (gpt-oss-120b, 0.6390). Ablations show that diversity in model families, scales, and prompting strategies is essential, with the ensemble consistently beating any single model. We also introduce Meno-Lite-0.1, a 7B domain-adapted model with a strong cost--performance trade-off, and analyse MTRAGEval, highlighting annotation limitations and directions for improvement. Our code is publicly available: https://github.com/RaguTeam/ragu_mtrag_semeval

The hallucination of non-existent facts by LLMs is an important problem given its widespread adoption across various applications. Previous research addresses this problem by analyzing the internal parameterized knowledge boundaries to estimate confidence. However, these studies focus on the single-problem setting and have not explored the more challenging multi-problem setting, which requires accurately answering multiple questions simultaneously. We introduce a novel method for the multi-problem setting, Multiple Answers and Confidence Stepwise Tuning (MAC-Tuning), that separates the learning of answer prediction and confidence estimation during fine-tuning on instruction data. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method outperforms baselines by up to 25\% in average precision.

The presence of offensive language on social media platforms and the implications this poses is becoming a major concern in modern society. Given the enormous amount of content created every day, automatic methods are required to detect and deal with this type of content. Until now, most of the research has focused on solving the problem for the English language, while the problem is multilingual. We construct a Danish dataset containing user-generated comments from Reddit and Facebook. It contains user generated comments from various social media platforms, and to our knowledge, it is the first of its kind. Our dataset is annotated to capture various types and target of offensive language. We develop four automatic classification systems, each designed to work for both the English and the Danish language. In the detection of offensive language in English, the best performing system achieves a macro averaged F1-score of 0.74, and the best performing system for Danish achieves a macro averaged F1-score of 0.70. In the detection of whether or not an offensive post is targeted, the best performing system for English achieves a macro averaged F1-score of 0.62, while the best performing system for Danish achieves a macro averaged F1-score of 0.73. Finally, in the detection of the target type in a targeted offensive post, the best performing system for English achieves a macro averaged F1-score of 0.56, and the best performing system for Danish achieves a macro averaged F1-score of 0.63. Our work for both the English and the Danish language captures the type and targets of offensive language, and present automatic methods for detecting different kinds of offensive language such as hate speech and cyberbullying.

Self-play is an effective paradigm for language-model self-evolution, but without guidance, solver performance can plateau or decline across rounds. Unguided methods steer question generation with signals such as difficulty, learnability, or diversity. These signals keep questions challenging and varied but do not specify which unresolved reasoning weaknesses later rounds should target. Guided methods obtain direction from external task resources, including human examples, document corpora, or specified difficulty targets, and therefore rely on task information supplied outside the self-play loop. We show that the needed direction can instead be derived from the solver's own failure history. We introduce DiagEvo, whose diagnostician extracts recurring error causes from this history and stores them in a hierarchical error-cause memory. The memory groups related causes under skill nodes and tracks each as Active or Mastered according to self-consistency on targeted questions. The challenger uses these states and recurrence counts to balance cause-targeted generation with free exploration. Double-confidence filtering retains intermediate-difficulty questions only when the most common solver answer has a clear vote lead. DiagEvo derives its curriculum from information produced during self-play, without external task resources. With the default 4B diagnostician, DiagEvo outperforms every baseline in mean accuracy across all nine benchmarks for each of the three solvers: Qwen3-4B, Qwen3-8B, and OctoThinker-8B. On Qwen3-8B, it reaches 72.3% mean accuracy across five mathematical reasoning benchmarks, 4.5 percentage points above R-Zero. Its mean accuracy across all nine benchmarks is 57.4%, 1.1 percentage points above DARC. Ablations show that the hierarchical error-cause memory and double-confidence filtering both contribute to these gains.

We report that model quantisation restructures domain-level metacognitive efficiency in LLMs rather than degrading it uniformly. Evaluating Llama-3-8B-Instruct on the same 3,000 questions at Q5_K_M and f16 precision, we find that M-ratio profiles across four knowledge domains are uncorrelated between formats (Spearman rho = 0.00). Arts & Literature moves from worst-monitored (M-ratio = 0.606 at Q5_K_M) to best-monitored (1.542 at f16). Geography moves from well-monitored (1.210) to under-monitored (0.798). However, Type-2 AUROC profiles are perfectly stable across formats (rho = 1.00), localising the restructuring to the M-ratio normalisation rather than the underlying discrimination signal. This finding emerged from a pre-registered attempt to improve metacognition through domain-conditional training. We prescribed confidence-amplification SFT for the diagnosed weak domain, with matched-budget agnostic and wrong-prescription controls. All four confirmatory hypotheses were null (10,000 bootstrap resamples, seed = 42). The training successfully reshaped confidence distributions, doubling the NLP gap in Science from 0.076 to 0.152, but did not improve meta-d' because the diagnostic profile did not transfer across formats. Any system relying on domain-level M-ratio profiles has an unexamined dependency on inference format. Systems using AUROC_2 are safer. We release all code, pre-registrations, and trial-level data.

We introduce WiCkeD, a simple method to increase the complexity of existing multiple-choice benchmarks by randomly replacing a choice with "None of the above", a method often used in educational tests. We show that WiCkeD can be automatically applied to any existing benchmark, making it more challenging. We apply WiCkeD to 6 popular benchmarks and use it to evaluate 18 open-weight LLMs. The performance of the models drops 12.1 points on average with respect to the original versions of the datasets. When using chain-of-thought on 3 MMLU datasets, the performance drop for the WiCkeD variant is similar to the one observed when using the LLMs directly, showing that WiCkeD is also challenging for models with enhanced reasoning abilities. WiCkeD also uncovers that some models are more sensitive to the extra reasoning required, providing additional information with respect to the original benchmarks. We relase our code and data at https://github.com/ahmedselhady/wicked-benchmarks.

Researchers have found that fake news spreads much times faster than real news. This is a major problem, especially in today's world where social media is the key source of news for many among the younger population. Fact verification, thus, becomes an important task and many media sites contribute to the cause. Manual fact verification is a tedious task, given the volume of fake news online. The Factify5WQA shared task aims to increase research towards automated fake news detection by providing a dataset with an aspect-based question answering based fact verification method. Each claim and its supporting document is associated with 5W questions that help compare the two information sources. The objective performance measure in the task is done by comparing answers using BLEU score to measure the accuracy of the answers, followed by an accuracy measure of the classification. The task had submissions using custom training setup and pre-trained language-models among others. The best performing team posted an accuracy of 69.56%, which is a near 35% improvement over the baseline.

Large Language Model training with 8-bit floating point (FP8) formats promises significant efficiency improvements, but reduced numerical precision makes training challenging. It is currently possible to train in FP8 only if one is willing to tune various hyperparameters, reduce model scale, or accept the overhead of computing dynamic scale factors. We demonstrate simple, scalable FP8 training that requires no dynamic scaling factors or special hyperparameters, even at large model sizes. Our method, munit Scaling (muS), also enables simple hyperparameter transfer across model widths, matched numerics across training and inference, and other desirable properties. munit Scaling is straightforward to implement, consisting of a set of minimal interventions based on a first-principles analysis of common transformer operations. We validate our method by training models from 1B to 13B parameters, performing all hidden linear layer computations in FP8. We achieve quality equal to higher precision baselines while also training up to 33% faster.

State-of-the-art language models can match human performance on many tasks, but they still struggle to robustly perform multi-step mathematical reasoning. To diagnose the failures of current models and support research, we introduce GSM8K, a dataset of 8.5K high quality linguistically diverse grade school math word problems. We find that even the largest transformer models fail to achieve high test performance, despite the conceptual simplicity of this problem distribution. To increase performance, we propose training verifiers to judge the correctness of model completions. At test time, we generate many candidate solutions and select the one ranked highest by the verifier. We demonstrate that verification significantly improves performance on GSM8K, and we provide strong empirical evidence that verification scales more effectively with increased data than a finetuning baseline.

Large language models (LLMs) now reach expert-level scores on medical licensing exams, encouraging the assumption that high scores imply safe medical judgment while patients increasingly use them for health advice. We show this assumption is fragile: when misleading context is injected into questions that LLMs originally answer correctly, they abandon the correct answer. We call the ability to maintain correct judgment under adversarial context epistemic resilience, and introduce MedMisBench to measure it. MedMisBench contains 10,932 medical question items and 48,889 misleading context-option pairs spanning medical reasoning, agentic capability, and patient-journey evaluation. Across 11 model configurations, mean accuracy falls from 71.1% on original questions to 38.0% under focused misleading context, with 51.5% attack success. The most damaging injections are formal, rule-like fabrications: authority-framed falsehoods reach 69.5% attack success and exception-poisoning claims reach 64.1%. A 14-member clinical panel from 7 countries identified serious potential harm in 38.2% of reviewed cases. MedMisBench exposes a structural blind spot in LLM evaluation in medical settings: existing benchmarks measure what models know, but not whether they preserve correct medical judgment under misleading context.

By design, average precision (AP) for object detection aims to treat all classes independently: AP is computed independently per category and averaged. On one hand, this is desirable as it treats all classes equally. On the other hand, it ignores cross-category confidence calibration, a key property in real-world use cases. Unfortunately, under important conditions (i.e., large vocabulary, high instance counts) the default implementation of AP is neither category independent, nor does it directly reward properly calibrated detectors. In fact, we show that on LVIS the default implementation produces a gameable metric, where a simple, un-intuitive re-ranking policy can improve AP by a large margin. To address these limitations, we introduce two complementary metrics. First, we present a simple fix to the default AP implementation, ensuring that it is independent across categories as originally intended. We benchmark recent LVIS detection advances and find that many reported gains do not translate to improvements under our new evaluation, suggesting recent improvements may arise from difficult to interpret changes to cross-category rankings. Given the importance of reliably benchmarking cross-category rankings, we consider a pooled version of AP (AP-Pool) that rewards properly calibrated detectors by directly comparing cross-category rankings. Finally, we revisit classical approaches for calibration and find that explicitly calibrating detectors improves state-of-the-art on AP-Pool by 1.7 points

A paraphrase-quality audit of MathCheck (ICLR 2025) detected 4 semantically incorrect paraphrases in 129 groups (3.1%); removing them drops GPT-4o from rank 2 to rank 4 and elevates Claude Haiku and DeepSeek V3 above it; these ranking changes are invisible to any single-model evaluation. Cross-model unanimity found these errors automatically (>= 3/4 models for MathCheck; >= 6/9 for our primary evaluation) for under $10; in our own dataset the same protocol found that 47% of auto-generated connective-variation paraphrases were semantically incorrect. That flaw compounds a deeper measurement gap: Claude Haiku 4.5 achieves 86% accuracy yet SCR=50%, meaning half its theorems are answered differently under semantically equivalent restatements, while aggregate accuracy across 9 models spans only 86-96% yet Semantic Consistency Rates (SCR) span 50-82% -- a 32-point gap invisible to standard benchmarks. Formally, for any target ranking over 9 frontier models there exists a weighting over paraphrase families that realizes it (No-Free-Benchmark corollary), because no model Pareto-dominates all families -- so benchmark designers who select families are implicitly choosing which model wins. FormInv supplies the audit protocol (replicated on external benchmarks at 100% recall), SCR and per-theorem Cochran's Q as primary invariance measures evaluated on 9 models across 366-811 items (on Lean4-verified theorems), and FormInvSelector for regime-aware model selection.

The conventional recipe for maximizing model accuracy is to (1) train multiple models with various hyperparameters and (2) pick the individual model which performs best on a held-out validation set, discarding the remainder. In this paper, we revisit the second step of this procedure in the context of fine-tuning large pre-trained models, where fine-tuned models often appear to lie in a single low error basin. We show that averaging the weights of multiple models fine-tuned with different hyperparameter configurations often improves accuracy and robustness. Unlike a conventional ensemble, we may average many models without incurring any additional inference or memory costs -- we call the results "model soups." When fine-tuning large pre-trained models such as CLIP, ALIGN, and a ViT-G pre-trained on JFT, our soup recipe provides significant improvements over the best model in a hyperparameter sweep on ImageNet. The resulting ViT-G model, which attains 90.94% top-1 accuracy on ImageNet, achieved a new state of the art. Furthermore, we show that the model soup approach extends to multiple image classification and natural language processing tasks, improves out-of-distribution performance, and improves zero-shot performance on new downstream tasks. Finally, we analytically relate the performance similarity of weight-averaging and logit-ensembling to flatness of the loss and confidence of the predictions, and validate this relation empirically. Code is available at https://github.com/mlfoundations/model-soups.

This paper show a work on better use of LLMs with SelfzCoT a self-prompt zero-shot CoT. Specifically, on the zero-shot arithmetic reasoning tasks, the accuracy of the proposed SelfzCoT is improved with GSM8K from 40.50% to 82.34%, with MultiArith from 79.3% to 94.7%, with ADDSUB from 74.70% to 94.10%, with SingleEq from 78.70% to 91.30%, with AQUA from 31.90% to 82.33%, and with SVAMP from 63.70% to 79.70%. Totally, using the first two lasting path activations to LLM and particularly, the code-level self-prompt, the SelfzCoT has a huge improvement on all six zero-shot arithmetic reasoning tasks. Additionally, our modified zero-shot CoT (MzCoT) also achieves remarkable performance in the reasoning tasks. The accuracy of the proposed MzCoT is enhanced with GSM8K from 40.50% to 76.32%, with MultiArith from 79.3% to 96.97%, with ADDSUB from 74.70% to 92.39%, with SingleEq from 78.70% to 94.60%, with AQUA from 31.90% to 79.90%, and with SVAMP from 63.70% to 81.50%. Notably, SelfzCoT has the best performance on GSM8K among all the recent zero-shot methods.

Best-of-N (BoN) Average Displacement Error (ADE)/ Final Displacement Error (FDE) is the most used metric for evaluating trajectory prediction models. Yet, the BoN does not quantify the whole generated samples, resulting in an incomplete view of the model's prediction quality and performance. We propose a new metric, Average Mahalanobis Distance (AMD) to tackle this issue. AMD is a metric that quantifies how close the whole generated samples are to the ground truth. We also introduce the Average Maximum Eigenvalue (AMV) metric that quantifies the overall spread of the predictions. Our metrics are validated empirically by showing that the ADE/FDE is not sensitive to distribution shifts, giving a biased sense of accuracy, unlike the AMD/AMV metrics. We introduce the usage of Implicit Maximum Likelihood Estimation (IMLE) as a replacement for traditional generative models to train our model, Social-Implicit. IMLE training mechanism aligns with AMD/AMV objective of predicting trajectories that are close to the ground truth with a tight spread. Social-Implicit is a memory efficient deep model with only 5.8K parameters that runs in real time of about 580Hz and achieves competitive results. Interactive demo of the problem can be seen at https://www.abduallahmohamed.com/social-implicit-amdamv-adefde-demo . Code is available at https://github.com/abduallahmohamed/Social-Implicit .

Vision-language models (VLMs) often produce chain-of-thought (CoT) explanations that sound plausible yet fail to reflect the underlying decision process, undermining trust in high-stakes clinical use. Existing evaluations rarely catch this misalignment, prioritizing answer accuracy or adherence to formats. We present a clinically grounded framework for chest X-ray visual question answering (VQA) that probes CoT faithfulness via controlled text and image modifications across three axes: clinical fidelity, causal attribution, and confidence calibration. In a reader study (n=4), evaluator-radiologist correlations fall within the observed inter-radiologist range for all axes, with strong alignment for attribution (Kendall's tau_b=0.670), moderate alignment for fidelity (tau_b=0.387), and weak alignment for confidence tone (tau_b=0.091), which we report with caution. Benchmarking six VLMs shows that answer accuracy and explanation quality are decoupled, acknowledging injected cues does not ensure grounding, and text cues shift explanations more than visual cues. While some open-source models match final answer accuracy, proprietary models score higher on attribution (25.0% vs. 1.4%) and often on fidelity (36.1% vs. 31.7%), highlighting deployment risks and the need to evaluate beyond final answer accuracy.

We present TIGERScore, a Trained metric that follows Instruction Guidance to perform Explainable, and Reference-free evaluation over a wide spectrum of text generation tasks. Different from other automatic evaluation methods that only provide arcane scores, TIGERScore is guided by the natural language instruction to provide error analysis to pinpoint the mistakes in the generated text. Our metric is based on LLaMA, trained on our meticulously curated instruction-tuning dataset MetricInstruct which covers 6 text generation tasks and 23 text generation datasets. The dataset consists of 48K quadruple in the form of (instruction, input, system output rightarrow error analysis). We collected the `system outputs' through diverse channels to cover different types of errors. To quantitatively assess our metric, we evaluate its correlation with human ratings on 5 held-in datasets, 2 held-out datasets and show that TIGERScore can achieve the highest overall Spearman's correlation with human ratings across these datasets and outperforms other metrics significantly. As a reference-free metric, its correlation can even surpass the best existing reference-based metrics. To further qualitatively assess the rationale generated by our metric, we conduct human evaluation on the generated explanations and found that the explanations are 70.8\% accurate. Through these experimental results, we believe TIGERScore demonstrates the possibility of building universal explainable metrics to evaluate any text generation task.

AI chatbots are rapidly shaping how people encounter the news, yet no prior study has systematically measured how accurately these systems, with their proprietary search integrations and retrieval-synthesis pipelines, handle emerging facts across languages and regions. We present a 14-day (February 9-22, 2026) evaluation of six AI chatbots (Gemini 3 Flash and Pro, Grok 4, Claude 4.5 Sonnet, GPT-5 and GPT-4o mini) on 2,100 factual questions derived from same-day BBC News reporting across six regional services (US & Canada, Arabic, Afrique, Hindi, Russian, Turkish). The best systems achieve over 90% multiple-choice accuracy on questions about events reported hours earlier. The same systems, however, lose 11-13% under free-response evaluation, and 16-17% across the cohort. We further characterize three failure patterns. First, every model achieves its lowest accuracy on Hindi (79% vs. 89-91% elsewhere) and citations indicate an Anglophone retrieval bias (e.g., models answering Hindi queries cite English Wikipedia more than any Hindi outlet). Second, retrieval, not reasoning, failures drive over 70% of all errors. When models retrieve a correct source, they often extract the correct answer; the problem is to land on the right source in the first place. Third, models achieving 88-96% accuracy on well-formed questions drop to 19-70% when questions contain subtle false premises, with the most vulnerable model accepting fabricated facts 64% of the time. We also identify a detection-accuracy paradox: the best false-premise detector ranks second in adversarial accuracy (abstention rate), while a weaker detector ranks first, showing that premise detection and answer recovery are partially independent capabilities. Overall, these suggest that high accuracy can mask systematic regional inequity, near-total dependence on retrieval infrastructure, and vulnerability to imperfect queries real users pose.

The stock market is extremely difficult to predict in the short term due to high market volatility, changes caused by news, and the non-linear nature of the financial time series. This research proposes a novel framework for improving minute-level prediction accuracy using semantic sentiment scores from top ten different large language models (LLMs) combined with minute interval intraday stock price data. We systematically constructed a time-aligned dataset of AAPL news articles and 1-minute Apple Inc. (AAPL) stock prices for the dates of April 4 to May 2, 2025. The sentiment analysis was achieved using the DeepSeek-V3, GPT variants, LLaMA, Claude, Gemini, Qwen, and Mistral models through their APIs. Each article obtained sentiment scores from all ten LLMs, which were scaled to a [0, 1] range and combined with prices and technical indicators like RSI, ROC, and Bollinger Band Width. Two state-of-the-art such as Reformer and Mamba were trained separately on the dataset using the sentiment scores produced by each LLM as input. Hyper parameters were optimized by means of Optuna and were evaluated through a 3-day evaluation period. Reformer had mean squared error (MSE) or the evaluation metrics, and it should be noted that Mamba performed not only faster but also better than Reformer for every LLM across the 10 LLMs tested. Mamba performed best with LLaMA 3.3--70B, with the lowest error of 0.137. While Reformer could capture broader trends within the data, the model appeared to over smooth sudden changes by the LLMs. This study highlights the potential of integrating LLM-based semantic analysis paired with efficient temporal modeling to enhance real-time financial forecasting.

Estimating the overall user experience (UX) on a device is a common challenge faced by manufacturers. Today, device makers primarily rely on microbenchmark scores, such as Geekbench, that stress test specific hardware components, such as CPU or RAM, but do not satisfactorily capture consumer workloads. System designers often rely on domain-specific heuristics and extensive testing of prototypes to reach a desired UX goal, and yet there is often a mismatch between the manufacturers' performance claims and the consumers' experience. We present our initial results on predicting real-life experience on laptops from their hardware specifications. We target web applications that run on Chromebooks (ChromeOS laptops) for a simple and fair aggregation of experience across applications and workloads. On 54 laptops, we track 9 UX metrics on common end-user workloads: web browsing, video playback and audio/video calls. We focus on a subset of high-level metrics exposed by the Chrome browser, that are part of the Web Vitals initiative for judging the UX on web applications. With a dataset of 100K UX data points, we train gradient boosted regression trees that predict the metric values from device specifications. Across our 9 metrics, we note a mean R^2 score (goodness-of-fit on our dataset) of 97.8% and a mean MAAPE (percentage error in prediction on unseen data) of 10.1%.

We present the Multilingual Amazon Reviews Corpus (MARC), a large-scale collection of Amazon reviews for multilingual text classification. The corpus contains reviews in English, Japanese, German, French, Spanish, and Chinese, which were collected between 2015 and 2019. Each record in the dataset contains the review text, the review title, the star rating, an anonymized reviewer ID, an anonymized product ID, and the coarse-grained product category (e.g., 'books', 'appliances', etc.) The corpus is balanced across the 5 possible star ratings, so each rating constitutes 20% of the reviews in each language. For each language, there are 200,000, 5,000, and 5,000 reviews in the training, development, and test sets, respectively. We report baseline results for supervised text classification and zero-shot cross-lingual transfer learning by fine-tuning a multilingual BERT model on reviews data. We propose the use of mean absolute error (MAE) instead of classification accuracy for this task, since MAE accounts for the ordinal nature of the ratings.

How much do large language models actually hallucinate when answering questions grounded in provided documents? Despite the critical importance of this question for enterprise AI deployments, reliable measurement has been hampered by benchmarks that rely on static datasets vulnerable to contamination, LLM-based judges with documented biases, or evaluation scales too small for statistical confidence. We address this gap using RIKER, a ground-truth-first evaluation methodology that enables deterministic scoring without human annotation. Across 35 open-weight models, three context lengths (32K, 128K, and 200K tokens), four temperature settings, and three hardware platforms (NVIDIA H200, AMD MI300X, and Intel Gaudi 3), we conducted over 172 billion tokens of evaluation - an order of magnitude beyond prior work. Our findings reveal that: (1) even the best-performing models fabricate answers at a non-trivial rate - 1.19% at best at 32K, with top-tier models at 5 - 7% - and fabrication rises steeply with context length, nearly tripling at 128K and exceeding 10% for all models at 200K; (2) model selection dominates all other factors, with overall accuracy spanning a 72-percentage-point range and model family predicting fabrication resistance better than model size; (3) temperature effects are nuanced - T=0.0 yields the best overall accuracy in roughly 60% of cases, but higher temperatures reduce fabrication for the majority of models and dramatically reduce coherence loss (infinite generation loops), which can reach 48x higher rates at T=0.0 versus T=1.0; (4) grounding ability and fabrication resistance are distinct capabilities - models that excel at finding facts may still fabricate facts that do not exist; and (5) results are consistent across hardware platforms, confirming that deployment decisions need not be hardware-dependent.

This work addresses the development of a database for the automatic assessment of text-to-speech (TTS) systems in Spanish, aiming to improve the accuracy of naturalness prediction models. The dataset consists of 4,326 audio samples from 52 different TTS systems and human voices and is, up to our knowledge, the first of its kind in Spanish. To label the audios, a subjective test was designed based on the ITU-T Rec. P.807 standard and completed by 92 participants. Furthermore, the utility of the collected dataset was validated by training automatic naturalness prediction systems. We explored two approaches: fine-tuning an existing model originally trained for English, and training small downstream networks on top of frozen self-supervised speech models. Our models achieve a mean absolute error of 0.8 on a five-point MOS scale. Further analysis demonstrates the quality and diversity of the developed dataset, and its potential to advance TTS research in Spanish.

Mathematical word problem-solving has long been recognized as a complex task for small language models (SLMs). A recent study hypothesized that the smallest model size, needed to achieve over 80% accuracy on the GSM8K benchmark, is 34 billion parameters. To reach this level of performance with smaller models, researcher often train SLMs to generate Python code or use tools to help avoid calculation errors. Additionally, they employ ensembling, where outputs of up to 100 model runs are combined to arrive at a more accurate result. Result selection is done using consensus, majority vote or a separate a verifier model used in conjunction with the SLM. Ensembling provides a substantial boost in accuracy but at a significant cost increase with multiple calls to the model (e.g., Phi-GSM uses top-48 to boost the performance from 68.2 to 81.5). In this work, we present Orca-Math, a 7-billion-parameter SLM based on the Mistral-7B, which achieves 86.81% on GSM8k without the need for multiple model calls or the use of verifiers, code execution or any other external tools. Our approach has the following key elements: (1) A high quality synthetic dataset of 200K math problems created using a multi-agent setup where agents collaborate to create the data, (2) An iterative learning techniques that enables the SLM to practice solving problems, receive feedback on its solutions and learn from preference pairs incorporating the SLM solutions and the feedback. When trained with Supervised Fine-Tuning alone, Orca-Math achieves 81.50% on GSM8k pass@1 metric. With iterative preference learning, Orca-Math achieves 86.81% pass@1. Orca-Math surpasses the performance of significantly larger models such as LLAMA-2-70B, WizardMath-70B, Gemini-Pro, ChatGPT-3.5. It also significantly outperforms other smaller models while using much smaller data (hundreds of thousands vs. millions of problems).

The validity screen (Cacioli, 2026d, 2026e) classifies LLM confidence signals as Valid, Indeterminate, or Invalid. We test whether these classifications predict selective prediction performance. Twenty frontier LLMs from seven families were evaluated on 524 items across six cognitive tracks. Valid models show mean Type 2 AUROC = .624 (SD = .048). Invalid models show mean AUROC = .357 (SD = .231). Cohen's d = 2.81, p = .002. The tiers order monotonically: Invalid (.357) < Indeterminate (.554) < Valid (.624). Split-half cross-validation yields median d = 1.77, P(d > 0) = 1.0 across 1,000 splits. The three-tier classification accounts for 47% of the variance in AUROC. DeepSeek-R1 drops from 85.3% accuracy at full coverage to 11.3% at 10% coverage. The screen predicts the criterion. For selective prediction, the screen matters.

We propose a deep-learning system -- for the SQuAD2.0 task -- that finds, or indicates the lack of, a correct answer to a question in a context paragraph. Our goal is to learn an ensemble of heterogeneous SQuAD2.0 models that, when blended properly, outperforms the best model in the ensemble per se. We created a stacking ensemble that combines top-N predictions from two models, based on ALBERT and RoBERTa, into a multiclass classification task to pick the best answer out of their predictions. We explored various ensemble configurations, input representations, and model architectures. For evaluation, we examined test-set EM and F1 scores; our best-performing ensemble incorporated a CNN-based meta-model and scored 87.117 and 90.306, respectively -- a relative improvement of 0.55% for EM and 0.61% for F1 scores, compared to the baseline performance of the best model in the ensemble, an ALBERT-based model, at 86.644 for EM and 89.760 for F1.

The popularity of multimodal large language models (MLLMs) has triggered a recent surge in research efforts dedicated to evaluating these models. Nevertheless, existing evaluation studies of MLLMs primarily focus on the comprehension and reasoning of unimodal (vision) content, neglecting performance evaluations in the domain of multimodal (vision-language) content understanding. Beyond multimodal reasoning, tasks related to multimodal content comprehension necessitate a profound understanding of multimodal contexts, achieved through the multimodal interaction to obtain a final answer. In this paper, we introduce a comprehensive assessment framework called MM-BigBench, which incorporates a diverse range of metrics to offer an extensive evaluation of the performance of various models and instructions across a wide spectrum of diverse multimodal content comprehension tasks. Consequently, our work complements research on the performance of MLLMs in multimodal comprehension tasks, achieving a more comprehensive and holistic evaluation of MLLMs. To begin, we employ the Best Performance metric to ascertain each model's performance upper bound on different datasets. Subsequently, the Mean Relative Gain metric offers an assessment of the overall performance of various models and instructions, while the Stability metric measures their sensitivity. Furthermore, previous research centers on evaluating models independently or solely assessing instructions, neglecting the adaptability between models and instructions. We propose the Adaptability metric to quantify the adaptability between models and instructions. Our paper evaluates a total of 20 language models (14 MLLMs) on 14 multimodal datasets spanning 6 tasks, with 10 instructions for each task, and derives novel insights. Our code will be released at https://github.com/declare-lab/MM-BigBench.

As of September 2023, ChatGPT correctly answers "what is 7+8" with 15, but when asked "7+8=15, True or False" it responds with "False". This inconsistency between generating and validating an answer is prevalent in language models (LMs) and erodes trust. In this paper, we propose a framework for measuring the consistency between generation and validation (which we call generator-validator consistency, or GV-consistency), finding that even GPT-4, a state-of-the-art LM, is GV-consistent only 76% of the time. To improve the consistency of LMs, we propose to finetune on the filtered generator and validator responses that are GV-consistent, and call this approach consistency fine-tuning. We find that this approach improves GV-consistency of Alpaca-30B from 60% to 93%, and the improvement extrapolates to unseen tasks and domains (e.g., GV-consistency for positive style transfers extrapolates to unseen styles like humor). In addition to improving consistency, consistency fine-tuning improves both generator quality and validator accuracy without using any labeled data. Evaluated across 6 tasks, including math questions, knowledge-intensive QA, and instruction following, our method improves the generator quality by 16% and the validator accuracy by 6.3% across all tasks.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have made significant strides in mathematical reasoning, underscoring the need for a comprehensive and fair evaluation of their capabilities. However, existing benchmarks often fall short, either lacking extensive coverage of undergraduate-level mathematical problems or probably suffering from test-set contamination. To address these issues, we introduce UGMathBench, a diverse and dynamic benchmark specifically designed for evaluating undergraduate-level mathematical reasoning with LLMs. UGMathBench comprises 5,062 problems across 16 subjects and 111 topics, featuring 10 distinct answer types. Each problem includes three randomized versions, with additional versions planned for release as leading open-source LLMs become saturated in UGMathBench. Furthermore, we propose two key metrics: effective accuracy (EAcc), which measures the percentage of correctly solved problems across all three versions, and reasoning gap (Delta), which assesses reasoning robustness by calculating the difference between the average accuracy across all versions and EAcc. Our extensive evaluation of 23 leading LLMs reveals that the highest EAcc achieved is 56.3\% by OpenAI-o1-mini, with large Delta values observed across different models. This highlights the need for future research aimed at developing "large reasoning models" with high EAcc and Delta = 0. We anticipate that the release of UGMathBench, along with its detailed evaluation codes, will serve as a valuable resource to advance the development of LLMs in solving mathematical problems.

With the rapid development of global industrial production, the demand for reliability in power equipment has been continuously increasing. Ensuring the stability of power system operations requires accurate methods to detect potential faults in power equipment, thereby guaranteeing the normal supply of electrical energy. In this article, the performance of YOLOv5, YOLOv8, YOLOv9, YOLOv10, and the state-of-the-art YOLOv11 methods was comprehensively evaluated for power equipment object detection. Experimental results demonstrate that the mean average precision (mAP) on a public dataset for power equipment was 54.4%, 55.5%, 43.8%, 48.0%, and 57.2%, respectively, with the YOLOv11 achieving the highest detection performance. Moreover, the YOLOv11 outperformed other methods in terms of recall rate and exhibited superior performance in reducing false detections. In conclusion, the findings indicate that the YOLOv11 model provides a reliable and effective solution for power equipment object detection, representing a promising approach to enhancing the operational reliability of power systems.

With social media usage growing exponentially in the past few years, fake news has also become extremely prevalent. The detrimental impact of fake news emphasizes the need for research focused on automating the detection of false information and verifying its accuracy. In this work, we present the outcome of the Factify 2 shared task, which provides a multi-modal fact verification and satire news dataset, as part of the DeFactify 2 workshop at AAAI'23. The data calls for a comparison based approach to the task by pairing social media claims with supporting documents, with both text and image, divided into 5 classes based on multi-modal relations. In the second iteration of this task we had over 60 participants and 9 final test-set submissions. The best performances came from the use of DeBERTa for text and Swinv2 and CLIP for image. The highest F1 score averaged for all five classes was 81.82%.

Single-prompt accuracy is the dominant way to benchmark language models, but it can miss reliability failures that matter. We evaluate a 15-model open-weight corpus, with the main reliability analyses focused on 10 instruct models across five classification and reasoning benchmarks under five prompt variants each, measuring accuracy, token-probability calibration, verbal-confidence calibration, verbal parse rate, and prompt-perturbation spread for every (model x dataset x variant) cell. We find three broad results. First, evaluation design can materially change the conclusion. Switching Expected Calibration Error (ECE) token from a raw to a label-set-normalised definition changes per-cell calibration by a mean absolute 0.149. More strikingly, pairing a chain-of-thought prompt with a first-character evaluator on ARC-Challenge reduces apparent accuracy by 72-88% across all five primary models; two independent repair procedures recover 93.8% and 102.7% of the lost performance, indicating an evaluator-side rather than model-side failure. Second, confidence signals are fragile. On MMLU-Pro, every primary model verbally reports confidence substantially above both its accuracy and its token-probability confidence on the same rows, and verbal parse rate can collapse for a single model on a single prompt variant. Third, prompt robustness does not track parameter count reliably. Across 10 instruct models, the correlation between model size and prompt-perturbation spread ranges from -0.244 to 0.474 across benchmarks. Taken together, these results show that reliability conclusions for small language models depend not only on the model being evaluated, but also on the evaluation pipeline used to measure it. We argue that calibration definitions, evaluator logic, verbal parseability, and prompt robustness should be reported explicitly when making reliability claims.

The k-means++ seeding algorithm (Arthur & Vassilvitskii, 2007) is widely used in practice for the k-means clustering problem where the goal is to cluster a dataset X subset R ^d into k clusters. The popularity of this algorithm is due to its simplicity and provable guarantee of being O(log k) competitive with the optimal solution in expectation. However, its running time is O(|X|kd), making it expensive for large datasets. In this work, we present a simple and effective rejection sampling based approach for speeding up k-means++. Our first method runs in time O(nnz (X) + beta k^2d) while still being O(log k ) competitive in expectation. Here, beta is a parameter which is the ratio of the variance of the dataset to the optimal k-means cost in expectation and O hides logarithmic factors in k and |X|. Our second method presents a new trade-off between computational cost and solution quality. It incurs an additional scale-invariant factor of k^{-Omega( m/beta)} Var (X) in addition to the O(log k) guarantee of k-means++ improving upon a result of (Bachem et al, 2016a) who get an additional factor of m^{-1}Var(X) while still running in time O(nnz(X) + mk^2d). We perform extensive empirical evaluations to validate our theoretical results and to show the effectiveness of our approach on real datasets.

Noise plagues many numerical datasets, where the recorded values in the data may fail to match the true underlying values due to reasons including: erroneous sensors, data entry/processing mistakes, or imperfect human estimates. We consider general regression settings with covariates and a potentially corrupted response whose observed values may contain errors. By accounting for various uncertainties, we introduced veracity scores that distinguish between genuine errors and natural data fluctuations, conditioned on the available covariate information in the dataset. We propose a simple yet efficient filtering procedure for eliminating potential errors, and establish theoretical guarantees for our method. We also contribute a new error detection benchmark involving 5 regression datasets with real-world numerical errors (for which the true values are also known). In this benchmark and additional simulation studies, our method identifies incorrect values with better precision/recall than other approaches.

We introduce QuArch, a dataset of 1500 human-validated question-answer pairs designed to evaluate and enhance language models' understanding of computer architecture. The dataset covers areas including processor design, memory systems, and performance optimization. Our analysis highlights a significant performance gap: the best closed-source model achieves 84% accuracy, while the top small open-source model reaches 72%. We observe notable struggles in memory systems, interconnection networks, and benchmarking. Fine-tuning with QuArch improves small model accuracy by up to 8%, establishing a foundation for advancing AI-driven computer architecture research. The dataset and leaderboard are at https://harvard-edge.github.io/QuArch/.

Recent popularity surrounds large AI language models due to their impressive natural language capabilities. They contribute significantly to language-related tasks, including prompt-based learning, making them valuable for various specific tasks. This approach unlocks their full potential, enhancing precision and generalization. Research communities are actively exploring their applications, with ChatGPT receiving recognition. Despite extensive research on large language models, their potential in recommendation scenarios still needs to be explored. This study aims to fill this gap by investigating ChatGPT's capabilities as a zero-shot recommender system. Our goals include evaluating its ability to use user preferences for recommendations, reordering existing recommendation lists, leveraging information from similar users, and handling cold-start situations. We assess ChatGPT's performance through comprehensive experiments using three datasets (MovieLens Small, Last.FM, and Facebook Book). We compare ChatGPT's performance against standard recommendation algorithms and other large language models, such as GPT-3.5 and PaLM-2. To measure recommendation effectiveness, we employ widely-used evaluation metrics like Mean Average Precision (MAP), Recall, Precision, F1, normalized Discounted Cumulative Gain (nDCG), Item Coverage, Expected Popularity Complement (EPC), Average Coverage of Long Tail (ACLT), Average Recommendation Popularity (ARP), and Popularity-based Ranking-based Equal Opportunity (PopREO). Through thoroughly exploring ChatGPT's abilities in recommender systems, our study aims to contribute to the growing body of research on the versatility and potential applications of large language models. Our experiment code is available on the GitHub repository: https://github.com/sisinflab/Recommender-ChatGPT

We introduce a novel framework for measuring Overton pluralism in LLMs--the extent to which diverse viewpoints are represented in model outputs. We (i) formalize Overton pluralism as a set coverage metric (OvertonScore), (ii) conduct a large-scale U.S.-representative human study (N = 1209; 60 questions; 8 LLMs), and (iii) develop an automated benchmark that closely reproduces human judgments. On average, models achieve OvertonScores of 0.35--0.41, with DeepSeek V3 performing best; yet all models remain far below the theoretical maximum of 1.0, revealing substantial headroom for improvement. Because repeated large-scale human studies are costly and slow, scalable evaluation tools are essential for model development. Hence, we propose an automated benchmark that achieves high rank correlation with human judgments (ρ=0.88), providing a practical proxy without replacing human assessment. By turning pluralistic alignment from a normative aim into a measurable benchmark, our work establishes a foundation for systematic progress toward more pluralistic LLMs.

This is the 1st part of the dissertation for my master degree and compares the power consumption using the default floating point (32bit) and Nvidia mixed precision (16bit and 32bit) while training a classification ML model. A custom PC with specific hardware was built to perform the experiments, and different ML hyper-parameters, such as batch size, neurons, and epochs, were chosen to build Deep Neural Networks (DNN). Additionally, various software was used during the experiments to collect the power consumption data in Watts from the Graphics Processing Unit (GPU), Central Processing Unit (CPU), Random Access Memory (RAM) and manually from a wattmeter connected to the wall. A benchmarking test with default hyper parameter values for the DNN was used as a reference, while the experiments used a combination of different settings. The results were recorded in Excel, and descriptive statistics were chosen to calculate the mean between the groups and compare them using graphs and tables. The outcome was positive when using mixed precision combined with specific hyper-parameters. Compared to the benchmarking, the optimisation for the classification reduced the power consumption between 7 and 11 Watts. Similarly, the carbon footprint is reduced because the calculation uses the same power consumption data. Still, a consideration is required when configuring hyper-parameters because it can negatively affect hardware performance. However, this research required inferential statistics, specifically ANOVA and T-test, to compare the relationship between the means. Furthermore, tests indicated no statistical significance of the relationship between the benchmarking and experiments. However, a more extensive implementation with a cluster of GPUs can increase the sample size significantly, as it is an essential factor and can change the outcome of the statistical analysis.

Automatic age estimation is widely used for age verification, where input images often vary considerably in resolution. This study evaluates the effect of image resolution on age estimation accuracy using DeepFace and InsightFace. A total of 1000 images from the IMDB-Clean dataset were processed in seven resolutions, resulting in 7000 test samples. Performance was evaluated using Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Standard Deviation (SD), and Median Absolute Error (MedAE). Based on this study, we conclude that input image resolution has a clear and consistent impact on the accuracy of age estimation in both DeepFace and InsightFace. Both frameworks achieve optimal performance at 224x224 pixels, with an MAE of 10.83 years (DeepFace) and 7.46 years (InsightFace). At low resolutions, MAE increases substantially, while very high resolutions also degrade accuracy. InsightFace is consistently faster than DeepFace across all resolutions.

Developing large language models is expensive and involves making decisions with small experiments, typically by evaluating on large, multi-task evaluation suites. In this work, we analyze specific properties which make a benchmark more reliable for such decisions, and interventions to design higher-quality evaluation benchmarks. We introduce two key metrics that show differences in current benchmarks: signal, a benchmark's ability to separate better models from worse models, and noise, a benchmark's sensitivity to random variability between training steps. We demonstrate that benchmarks with a better signal-to-noise ratio are more reliable when making decisions at small scale, and those with less noise have lower scaling law prediction error. These results suggest that improving signal or noise will lead to more useful benchmarks, so we introduce three interventions designed to directly affect signal or noise. For example, we propose that switching to a metric that has better signal and noise (e.g., perplexity rather than accuracy) leads to better reliability and improved scaling law error. We also find that filtering noisy subtasks, to improve an aggregate signal-to-noise ratio, leads to more reliable multi-task evaluations. We also find that averaging the output of a model's intermediate checkpoints to reduce noise leads to consistent improvements. We conclude by recommending that those creating new benchmarks, or selecting which existing benchmarks to use, aim for high signal and low noise. We use 30 benchmarks for these experiments, and 375 open-weight language models from 60M to 32B parameters, resulting in a new, publicly available dataset of 900K evaluation benchmark results, totaling 200M instances.

Aggregate metacognitive quality scores mask within-model variation across MMLU benchmark domains. We administered 1,500 MMLU items (250 per domain, under an a priori six-domain grouping) to 33 frontier LLMs from eight model families and computed Type-2 AUROC per model-domain cell using verbalized confidence (0-100). Total observations: 47,151. Every model with above-chance aggregate monitoring showed non-trivial domain-level variation. Applied/Professional knowledge was reliably the easiest benchmark domain to monitor (mean AUROC = .742, ranked top-2 in 21 of 33 models); Formal Reasoning and Natural Science were reliably the hardest (one of the two ranked bottom-2 in 27 of 33 models). The three middle domains were statistically indistinguishable (Kendall's W = .164). A subject-level coherence analysis (within-domain similarity ratio = 0.95) confirms the six-domain grouping is a pragmatic benchmark taxonomy, not a validated latent construct. Within-family profile-shape clustering is significant for Anthropic, Google-Gemini, and Qwen (permutation p < .0001) but not DeepSeek, Google-Gemma, or OpenAI. Gemma 4 31B showed a +.202 AUROC improvement over Gemma 3 27B. Three models classified Invalid on binary KEEP/WITHDRAW probes produced normal profiles under verbalized confidence, confirming probe-format specificity. Bootstrap 95% CIs on 198 cells have median width .199. Split-half aggregate stability r = .893; profile-level split-half is weaker (grand median r = .184). These results show stable benchmark-domain variation obscured by aggregate metrics, and support benchmark-stage domain screening as a step before deployment in specific application areas.

Large language models (LLMs) are often equipped with multi-sample decoding strategies. An LLM implicitly defines an arithmetic code book, facilitating efficient and embarrassingly parallelizable arithmetic sampling to produce multiple samples using quasi-random codes. Traditional text generation methods, such as beam search and sampling-based techniques, have notable limitations: they lack parallelizability or diversity of sampled sequences. This study explores the potential of arithmetic sampling, contrasting it with ancestral sampling across two decoding tasks that employ multi-sample inference: chain-of-thought reasoning with self-consistency and machine translation with minimum Bayes risk decoding. Our results demonstrate that arithmetic sampling produces more diverse samples, significantly improving reasoning and translation performance as the sample size increases. We observe a 3text{-5%} point increase in accuracy on the GSM8K dataset and a 0.45text{-0.89%} point increment in COMET score for WMT19 tasks using arithmetic sampling without any significant computational overhead.

This paper identifies the misinterpretation of the context can be a significant issue during the reasoning process of large language models, spanning from smaller models like Llama3.2-3B-Instruct to cutting-edge ones like DeepSeek-R1. For example, in the phrase "10 dollars per kilo," LLMs might not recognize that "per" means "for each," leading to calculation errors. We introduce a novel, post-training approach called **Stick to the Facts (SIFT)** to tackle this. SIFT leverages increasing inference-time compute to ground LLM reasoning in contexts. At the core of SIFT lies the *Sticker*, which is generated by the model itself to explicitly emphasize the key information within the context. Given the curated Sticker, SIFT generates two predictions -- one from the original query and one from the query augmented with the Sticker. If they differ, the Sticker is sequentially refined via *forward* optimization (to better align the extracted facts with the query) and *inverse* generation (to conform with the model's inherent tendencies) for more faithful reasoning outcomes. Studies across diverse models (from 3B to 100B+) and benchmarks (e.g., GSM8K, MATH-500) reveal consistent performance improvements. Notably, SIFT improves the pass@1 accuracy of DeepSeek-R1 on AIME2024 from 78.33% to **85.67**%, establishing a new state-of-the-art in the open-source community. The code is available at https://github.com/zhijie-group/SIFT.

Benchmarks like GSM8K are popular measures of mathematical reasoning, but leaderboard gains can overstate true capability due to memorization of fixed test sets. Most robustness variants apply surface-level perturbations (paraphrases, renamings, number swaps, distractors) that largely preserve the underlying facts, and static releases can themselves become memorization targets over time. We introduce GSM-SEM, a reusable and stochastic framework for generating semantically diverse benchmark variants with substantially higher semantic variance than prior approaches. GSM-SEM perturbs problem statements by modifying entities, attributes, and/or relationships, frequently altering underlying facts and requiring models to recompute solutions under new conditions, while constraining generation to preserve the original calculations/answer and approximate problem difficulty. GSM-SEM generates fresh variants on each run without requiring re-annotation, reducing reliance on static public benchmarks for evaluation and thereby lowering the bias of memorization. We apply GSM-SEM on GSM8K and two existing variation suites (GSM-Symbolic and GSM-Plus), producing GSM8K-SEM, GSM-Symbolic-SEM, and GSM-Plus-SEM. Evaluating 14 SOTA LLMs, we observe consistent performance drops with larger decline when semantic perturbations are coupled with symbolic/plus variations (average drop rate 28% in maximum strictness configuration of GSM-SEM). We publicly release the three SEM variants as fully human-validated datasets. Finally, to demonstrate applicability beyond GSM-style math problems, we apply GSM-SEM to additional benchmarks including BigBenchHard, LogicBench, and NLR-BIRD.

A plethora of sentence embedding models makes it challenging to choose one, especially for domains such as telecom, rich with specialized vocabulary. We evaluate multiple embeddings obtained from publicly available models and their domain-adapted variants, on both point retrieval accuracies as well as their (95\%) confidence intervals. We establish a systematic method to obtain thresholds for similarity scores for different embeddings. We observe that fine-tuning improves mean bootstrapped accuracies as well as tightens confidence intervals. The pre-training combined with fine-tuning makes confidence intervals even tighter. To understand these variations, we analyse and report significant correlations between the distributional overlap between top-K, correct and random sentence similarities with retrieval accuracies and similarity thresholds. Following current literature, we analyze if retrieval accuracy variations can be attributed to isotropy of embeddings. Our conclusions are that isotropy of embeddings (as measured by two independent state-of-the-art isotropy metric definitions) cannot be attributed to better retrieval performance. However, domain adaptation which improves retrieval accuracies also improves isotropy. We establish that domain adaptation moves domain specific embeddings further away from general domain embeddings.

Reward Models (RMs) are crucial for aligning language models with human preferences. Currently, the evaluation of RMs depends on measuring accuracy against a validation set of manually annotated preference data. Although this method is straightforward and widely adopted, the relationship between RM accuracy and downstream policy performance remains under-explored. In this work, we conduct experiments in a synthetic setting to investigate how differences in RM measured by accuracy translate into gaps in optimized policy performance. Our findings reveal that while there is a weak positive correlation between accuracy and downstream performance, policies optimized towards RMs with similar accuracy can exhibit quite different performance. Moreover, we discover that the way of measuring accuracy significantly impacts its ability to predict the final policy performance. Through the lens of the Regressional Goodhart effect, we recognize that accuracy, when used for measuring RM quality, can fail to fully capture the potential RM overoptimization. This underscores the inadequacy of relying solely on accuracy to reflect their impact on policy optimization.

This preliminary white paper proposes a novel 8-bit floating-point data format HiFloat8 (abbreviated as HiF8) for deep learning. HiF8 features tapered precision. For normal value encoding, it provides 7 exponent values with 3-bit mantissa, 8 exponent values with 2-bit mantissa, and 16 exponent values with 1-bit mantissa. For denormal value encoding, it extends the dynamic range by 7 extra powers of 2, from 31 to 38 binades (notice that FP16 covers 40 binades). Meanwhile, HiF8 encodes all the special values except that positive zero and negative zero are represented by only one bit-pattern. Thanks to the better balance between precision and dynamic range, HiF8 can be simultaneously used in both forward and backward passes of AI training. In this paper, we will describe the definition and rounding methods of HiF8, as well as the tentative training and inference solutions. To demonstrate the efficacy of HiF8, massive simulation results on various neural networks, including traditional neural networks and large language models (LLMs), will also be presented.

Recent research has generated hope that inference scaling could allow weaker language models to match or exceed the accuracy of stronger models, such as by repeatedly sampling solutions to a coding problem until it passes unit tests. The central thesis of this paper is that there is no free lunch for inference scaling: indefinite accuracy improvement through resampling can only be realized if the "verifier" (in this case, a set of unit tests) is perfect. When the verifier is imperfect, as it almost always is in domains such as reasoning or coding (for example, unit tests have imperfect coverage), there is a nonzero probability of false positives: incorrect solutions that pass the verifier. Resampling cannot decrease this probability, so it imposes an upper bound to the accuracy of resampling-based inference scaling even with an infinite compute budget. We find that there is a very strong correlation between the model's single-sample accuracy (i.e. accuracy without unit tests) and its false positive rate on coding benchmarks HumanEval and MBPP, whose unit tests have limited coverage. Therefore, no amount of inference scaling of weaker models can enable them to match the single-sample accuracy of a sufficiently strong model (Fig. 1a). When we consider that false positives have a negative utility compared to abstaining from producing a solution, it bends the inference scaling curve further downward. Empirically, we find that the optimal number of samples can be less than 10 under realistic assumptions (Fig. 1b). Finally, we show that beyond accuracy, false positives may have other undesirable qualities, such as poor adherence to coding style conventions.

To reject the Efficient Market Hypothesis a set of 5 technical indicators and 23 fundamental indicators was identified to establish the possibility of generating excess returns on the stock market. Leveraging these data points and various classification machine learning models, trading data of the 505 equities on the US S&P500 over the past 20 years was analysed to develop a classifier effective for our cause. From any given day, we were able to predict the direction of change in price by 1% up to 10 days in the future. The predictions had an overall accuracy of 83.62% with a precision of 85% for buy signals and a recall of 100% for sell signals. Moreover, we grouped equities by their sector and repeated the experiment to see if grouping similar assets together positively effected the results but concluded that it showed no significant improvements in the performance rejecting the idea of sector-based analysis. Also, using feature ranking we could identify an even smaller set of 6 indicators while maintaining similar accuracies as that from the original 28 features and also uncovered the importance of buy, hold and sell analyst ratings as they came out to be the top contributors in the model. Finally, to evaluate the effectiveness of the classifier in real-life situations, it was backtested on FAANG equities using a modest trading strategy where it generated high returns of above 60% over the term of the testing dataset. In conclusion, our proposed methodology with the combination of purposefully picked features shows an improvement over the previous studies, and our model predicts the direction of 1% price changes on the 10th day with high confidence and with enough buffer to even build a robotic trading system.

A content-moderation system can score well on every standard accuracy metric and still cause real harm, if its mistakes fall on the few users who connect otherwise separate communities. We show this in an agent-based model where N=240 learning agents on a community-structured network each post harmless, productive, or dangerous content, and a regulator removes or penalizes whatever a noisy classifier flags. Overall usefulness barely moves as the noise changes (one-way ANOVA, p=0.96): by aggregate measures, nothing looks wrong. The damage instead concentrates on these bridge users, whose useful posts are wrongly suppressed and whose dangerous posts are wrongly spared. A governance loss (L_gov) that prices these two mistakes separately from the cost of enforcement more than doubles under false-positive-heavy noise. Aggregate accuracy hides who is harmed, and the cheap quantity to audit is how many connections a user has (degree), a near-perfect proxy for the betweenness that defines a bridge (r=0.96).

In Machine Learning, a benchmark refers to an ensemble of datasets associated with one or multiple metrics together with a way to aggregate different systems performances. They are instrumental in (i) assessing the progress of new methods along different axes and (ii) selecting the best systems for practical use. This is particularly the case for NLP with the development of large pre-trained models (e.g. GPT, BERT) that are expected to generalize well on a variety of tasks. While the community mainly focused on developing new datasets and metrics, there has been little interest in the aggregation procedure, which is often reduced to a simple average over various performance measures. However, this procedure can be problematic when the metrics are on a different scale, which may lead to spurious conclusions. This paper proposes a new procedure to rank systems based on their performance across different tasks. Motivated by the social choice theory, the final system ordering is obtained through aggregating the rankings induced by each task and is theoretically grounded. We conduct extensive numerical experiments (on over 270k scores) to assess the soundness of our approach both on synthetic and real scores (e.g. GLUE, EXTREM, SEVAL, TAC, FLICKR). In particular, we show that our method yields different conclusions on state-of-the-art systems than the mean-aggregation procedure while being both more reliable and robust.

We present an empirical benchmark evaluating how five large language models assess multisensor physical hazard data. Testing 60 scenarios across three categories - multi-sensor joint assessment, response proportionality, and pattern disambiguation - with 1,800 API calls at temperature 0.0, we find that all tested models consistently produced no precautionary warning signal across the tested scenarios where multiple sensors are simultaneously elevated below their individual safety limits, while achieving near-perfect accuracy on single-sensor threshold violations. All five models (ChatGPT-4o, Gemini 2.5 Flash, DeepSeek, Kimi, Llama 3.1 8B) score near zero on Category A multi-sensor scenarios (Q2: 0.000-0.208; Q3: 0.000-0.592) compared to strong performance on single-sensor scenarios (Category B Q1: 0.975-1.000). Structured tabular formatting shows no consistent advantage over plain prose; ChatGPT-4o performs significantly better under prose (p = 0.001). These findings have direct implications for practitioners deploying the tested models in physical safety monitoring systems.

Large language models (LLMs) increasingly summarize clinical evidence, where a claim's weight depends on how strongly it is supported. Yet these models convey confidence poorly, and properties they never state, such as truth, are often readable from their activations. Whether a clinical model registers evidence strength, distinct from truth, and states it when asked is untested, and any such signal could be lexical. We compiled 45,134 clinical claims from six public sources, harmonized 20,611 into a four-level evidence grade under three independent frameworks, and tested 22 local, open-weight LLMs from several developers (0.6-70 billion parameters; general, medical, and reasoning), with lexical, truth, and cross-framework controls. A linear estimator recovered the grade in every model (median AUROC 71.8), yet decodability did not rise with scale and was weakest in reasoning models. The grade the models stated fell to chance, 25-27 percentage points below the estimator. The recoverable signal was largely lexical and did not transfer across topics or frameworks, yet it was distinct from factual truth and still flagged weakly supported claims (AUROC 69.2). Clinical LLMs thus carry an ordered evidence-strength signal they do not express, so their stated grades fail to convey a claim's support even when it is recoverable from their representations and text.

We develop task scaling laws and model ladders to predict the individual task performance of pretrained language models (LMs) in the overtrained setting. Standard power laws for language modeling loss cannot accurately model task performance. Therefore, we leverage a two-step prediction approach: first use model and data size to predict a task-specific loss, and then use this task loss to predict task performance. We train a set of small-scale "ladder" models, collect data points to fit the parameterized functions of the two prediction steps, and make predictions for two target models: a 7B model trained to 4T tokens and a 13B model trained to 5T tokens. Training the ladder models only costs 1% of the compute used for the target models. On four multiple-choice tasks written in ranked classification format, we can predict the accuracy of both target models within 2 points of absolute error. We have higher prediction error on four other tasks (average absolute error 6.9) and find that these are often tasks with higher variance in task metrics. We also find that using less compute to train fewer ladder models tends to deteriorate predictions. Finally, we empirically show that our design choices and the two-step approach lead to superior performance in establishing scaling laws.

Recently, the idea of using FP8 as a number format for neural network training has been floating around the deep learning world. Given that most training is currently conducted with entire networks in FP32, or sometimes FP16 with mixed-precision, the step to having some parts of a network run in FP8 with 8-bit weights is an appealing potential speed-up for the generally costly and time-intensive training procedures in deep learning. A natural question arises regarding what this development means for efficient inference on edge devices. In the efficient inference device world, workloads are frequently executed in INT8. Sometimes going even as low as INT4 when efficiency calls for it. In this whitepaper, we compare the performance for both the FP8 and INT formats for efficient on-device inference. We theoretically show the difference between the INT and FP formats for neural networks and present a plethora of post-training quantization and quantization-aware-training results to show how this theory translates to practice. We also provide a hardware analysis showing that the FP formats are somewhere between 50-180% less efficient in terms of compute in dedicated hardware than the INT format. Based on our research and a read of the research field, we conclude that although the proposed FP8 format could be good for training, the results for inference do not warrant a dedicated implementation of FP8 in favor of INT8 for efficient inference. We show that our results are mostly consistent with previous findings but that important comparisons between the formats have thus far been lacking. Finally, we discuss what happens when FP8-trained networks are converted to INT8 and conclude with a brief discussion on the most efficient way for on-device deployment and an extensive suite of INT8 results for many models.

Language models are increasingly capable and are being rapidly deployed on a population-level scale. As a result, the safety of these models is increasingly high-stakes. Fortunately, advances in alignment have significantly reduced the likelihood of harmful model outputs. However, when models are queried billions of times in a day, even rare worst-case behaviors will occur. Current safety evaluations focus on capturing the distribution of inputs that yield harmful outputs. These evaluations disregard the probabilistic nature of models and their tail output behavior. To measure this tail risk, we propose a method to efficiently estimate the probability of harmful outputs for any input query. Instead of naive brute-force sampling from the target model, where harmful outputs could be rare, we operationalize importance sampling by creating unsafe versions of the target model. These unsafe versions enable sample-efficient estimation by making harmful outputs more probable. On benchmarks measuring misuse and misalignment, these estimates match brute-force Monte Carlo estimates using 10-20x fewer samples. For example, we can estimate probability of harmful outputs on the order of 10^-4 with just 500 samples. Additionally, we find that these harmfulness estimates can reveal the sensitivity of models to perturbations in model input and predict deployment risks. Our work demonstrates that accurate rare-event estimation is both critical and feasible for safety evaluations. Code is available at https://github.com/rangell/LMTailRisk

We build new test sets for the CIFAR-10 and ImageNet datasets. Both benchmarks have been the focus of intense research for almost a decade, raising the danger of overfitting to excessively re-used test sets. By closely following the original dataset creation processes, we test to what extent current classification models generalize to new data. We evaluate a broad range of models and find accuracy drops of 3% - 15% on CIFAR-10 and 11% - 14% on ImageNet. However, accuracy gains on the original test sets translate to larger gains on the new test sets. Our results suggest that the accuracy drops are not caused by adaptivity, but by the models' inability to generalize to slightly "harder" images than those found in the original test sets.

Commonly used evaluation measures including Recall, Precision, F-Measure and Rand Accuracy are biased and should not be used without clear understanding of the biases, and corresponding identification of chance or base case levels of the statistic. Using these measures a system that performs worse in the objective sense of Informedness, can appear to perform better under any of these commonly used measures. We discuss several concepts and measures that reflect the probability that prediction is informed versus chance. Informedness and introduce Markedness as a dual measure for the probability that prediction is marked versus chance. Finally we demonstrate elegant connections between the concepts of Informedness, Markedness, Correlation and Significance as well as their intuitive relationships with Recall and Precision, and outline the extension from the dichotomous case to the general multi-class case.

We introduce TinyCast, an attention-free zero-shot forecaster that emits a predictive distribution from 146,505 parameters, on the premise that at this size the periodic structure of a context is worth computing rather than learning. A zero-parameter spectral detector supplies the dominant periods, the context is folded on their phase, and a dilated convolutional encoder and a block-autoregressive quantile decoder model the rest. It is smaller than every zero-shot entry on the GIFT-Eval board whose parameter count can be established. On probabilistic accuracy it defines the size-accuracy frontier. Among zero-shot entries declaring no test-data leakage it is the only one below 1.4M parameters that emits a predictive distribution, and every entry scoring better carries at least that budget. On Chronos-ZS and fev-bench every neural model ahead of it carries at least 28 times its parameters. Because the mixing path is convolutions and matrix multiplications only, it exports to static INT8 and forecasts end to end on an embedded device without per-signal fitting.

With the increasing volume of high-frequency data in the information age, both challenges and opportunities arise in the prediction of stock volatility. On one hand, the outcome of prediction using tradition method combining stock technical and macroeconomic indicators still leaves room for improvement; on the other hand, macroeconomic indicators and peoples' search record on those search engines affecting their interested topics will intuitively have an impact on the stock volatility. For the convenience of assessment of the influence of these indicators, macroeconomic indicators and stock technical indicators are then grouped into objective factors, while Baidu search indices implying people's interested topics are defined as subjective factors. To align different frequency data, we introduce GARCH-MIDAS model. After mixing all the above data, we then feed them into Transformer model as part of the training data. Our experiments show that this model outperforms the baselines in terms of mean square error. The adaption of both types of data under Transformer model significantly reduces the mean square error from 1.00 to 0.86.

Pass@k is widely used to report the reasoning performance of LLMs, but it often produces unstable and potentially misleading rankings, especially when the number of trials (samples) is limited and computational resources are constrained. We present a principled Bayesian evaluation framework that replaces Pass@k and average accuracy over N trials (avg@N) with posterior estimates of a model's underlying success probability and credible intervals, yielding stable rankings and a transparent decision rule for differences. Evaluation outcomes are modeled as categorical (not just 0/1) with a Dirichlet prior, giving closed-form expressions for the posterior mean and uncertainty of any weighted rubric and enabling the use of prior evidence when appropriate. Theoretically, under a uniform prior, the Bayesian posterior mean is order-equivalent to average accuracy (Pass@1), explaining its empirical robustness while adding principled uncertainty. Empirically, in simulations with known ground-truth success rates and on AIME'24/'25, HMMT'25, and BrUMO'25, the posterior-based procedure achieves faster convergence and greater rank stability than Pass@k and recent variants, enabling reliable comparisons at far smaller sample counts. The framework clarifies when observed gaps are statistically meaningful (non-overlapping credible intervals) versus noise, and it naturally extends to graded, rubric-based evaluations. Together, these results recommend replacing Pass@k for LLM evaluation and ranking with a posterior-based, compute-efficient protocol that unifies binary and non-binary evaluation while making uncertainty explicit. Source code is available at https://github.com/mohsenhariri/scorio

Medical vision-language models often struggle with generating accurate quantitative measurements in radiology reports, leading to hallucinations that undermine clinical reliability. We introduce FactCheXcker, a modular framework that de-hallucinates radiology report measurements by leveraging an improved query-code-update paradigm. Specifically, FactCheXcker employs specialized modules and the code generation capabilities of large language models to solve measurement queries generated based on the original report. After extracting measurable findings, the results are incorporated into an updated report. We evaluate FactCheXcker on endotracheal tube placement, which accounts for an average of 78% of report measurements, using the MIMIC-CXR dataset and 11 medical report-generation models. Our results show that FactCheXcker significantly reduces hallucinations, improves measurement precision, and maintains the quality of the original reports. Specifically, FactCheXcker improves the performance of 10/11 models and achieves an average improvement of 135.0% in reducing measurement hallucinations measured by mean absolute error. Code is available at https://github.com/rajpurkarlab/FactCheXcker.

Why do language models sometimes prefer correct statements even when trained on mixed-quality data? We introduce the Compression--Consistency Principle: next-token prediction favors hypotheses that allow shorter and more internally consistent descriptions of the training data. Truth bias emerges only when false alternatives are structurally harder to compress. We test this using small GPT-2-style character-level transformers (3.5M--86M parameters) on synthetic math corpora with controlled mixtures of correct and incorrect rules. In the random-error setting, models strongly prefer correct completions in paired evaluation: 83.1% accuracy at balanced data and 67.0% even when correct rules appear in only 10% of the corpus. Replacing random errors with a coherent but mathematically incorrect rule system largely eliminates the preference (near-chance accuracy). In a more natural-language-like synthetic world, the effect is weaker but still present (57.7%). Additional experiments show that embedding verification steps can restore preference for correctness even at small scale, while increasing the number of consistent rules produces a graded improvement in accuracy. Our results suggest that what appears as a "truth bias" is largely a side effect of compression pressure and preference for internal consistency, rather than an intrinsic drive toward truth. Full code and data are available at https://github.com/Rai220/compression-drives-truth.

We introduce Humans-Junior, a 3.8B model that matches GPT-4o on the FACTS Grounding public subset within a pm 5 pp equivalence margin. Results. On Q1--Q500 under identical judges, GPT-4o scores 73.5% (95% CI 69.5--77.2) and Humans-Junior 72.7% (95% CI 68.7--76.5); the paired difference is 0.8 pp (bootstrap 95% CI -3.1 to +4.7; permutation p = 0.72; Cohen's d = 0.023). TOST establishes equivalence at pm 5 pp (not at pm 3 pp). When purchased as managed APIs, Humans-Junior's base model (Phi-3.5-mini-instruct) is approx 19times less expensive than GPT-4o on Microsoft AI Foundry pricing; self-hosted or edge deployments can drive incremental inference cost toward zero. Measured vs estimated pricing sources are tabulated in Appendix E. Method. Our approach combines minimal directed "Exoskeleton Reasoning" scaffolds with behavioral fine-tuning that teaches protocol compliance (epistemic discipline) rather than domain answers. Fine-tuning alone adds little; combined, they synergize (+17.7 pp, p < 0.001) and reduce variance (approx 25%). In prompt-only settings on frontier models (Q1--Q100; non-comparable), directed reasoning improved GPT-4o by +11.8 pp to 85.3% and Gemini-2.5-Pro by +5.0 pp to 93.3% (baseline 88.3%, n = 100); see Section~5. TL;DR. A 3.8B model achieves GPT-4o-level FACTS accuracy (equivalent within pm 5 pp on Q1--Q500). Cloud pricing shows approx 19times lower cost versus GPT-4o, and self-hosted/edge deployments can approach zero marginal cost. Pricing sources are listed in Appendix E. Frontier prompt-only gains (Q1--Q100; non-comparable) and optimized-prompt exploratory results under earlier judges are summarized in Appendix F. Keywords: Small Language Models, Factual Grounding, Directed Reasoning, Fine-Tuning, Model Alignment, Cost-Efficient AI

Standard evaluation of LLM confidence relies on calibration metrics (ECE, Brier score) that conflate two distinct capacities: how much a model knows (Type-1 sensitivity) and how well it knows what it knows (Type-2 metacognitive sensitivity). We introduce an evaluation framework based on Type-2 Signal Detection Theory that decomposes these capacities using meta-d' and the metacognitive efficiency ratio M-ratio. Applied to four LLMs (Llama-3-8B-Instruct, Mistral-7B-Instruct-v0.3, Llama-3-8B-Base, Gemma-2-9B-Instruct) across 224,000 factual QA trials, we find: (1) metacognitive efficiency varies substantially across models even when Type-1 sensitivity is similar -- Mistral achieves the highest d' but the lowest M-ratio; (2) metacognitive efficiency is domain-specific, with different models showing different weakest domains, invisible to aggregate metrics; (3) temperature manipulation shifts Type-2 criterion while meta-d' remains stable for two of four models, dissociating confidence policy from metacognitive capacity; (4) AUROC_2 and M-ratio produce fully inverted model rankings, demonstrating these metrics answer fundamentally different evaluation questions. The meta-d' framework reveals which models "know what they don't know" versus which merely appear well-calibrated due to criterion placement -- a distinction with direct implications for model selection, deployment, and human-AI collaboration. Pre-registered analysis; code and data publicly available.

Low-precision data types are essential in modern neural networks during both training and inference as they enhance throughput and computational capacity by better exploiting available hardware resources. Despite the incorporation of FP8 in commercially available neural network accelerators, a comprehensive exposition of its underlying mechanisms, along with rigorous performance and accuracy evaluations, is still lacking. In this work, we contribute in three significant ways. First, we analyze the implementation details and quantization options associated with FP8 for inference on the Intel Gaudi AI accelerator. Second, we empirically quantify the throughput improvements afforded by the use of FP8 at both the operator level and in end-to-end scenarios. Third, we assess the accuracy impact of various FP8 quantization methods. Our experimental results indicate that the Intel Gaudi 2 accelerator consistently achieves high computational unit utilization, frequently exceeding 90% MFU, while incurring an accuracy degradation of less than 1%.

The quality of finetuning data is crucial for aligning large language models (LLMs) with human values. Current methods to improve data quality are either labor-intensive or prone to factual errors caused by LLM hallucinations. This paper explores elevating the quality of existing instruction data to better align with human values, introducing a simple and effective approach named ReAlign, which reformats the responses of instruction data into a format that better aligns with pre-established criteria and the collated evidence. This approach minimizes human annotation, hallucination, and the difficulty in scaling, remaining orthogonal to existing alignment techniques. Experimentally, ReAlign significantly boosts the general alignment ability, math reasoning, factuality, and readability of the LLMs. Encouragingly, without introducing any additional data or advanced training techniques, and merely by reformatting the response, LLaMA-2-13B's mathematical reasoning ability on GSM8K can be improved from 46.77% to 56.63% in accuracy. Additionally, a mere 5% of ReAlign data yields a 67% boost in general alignment ability measured by the Alpaca dataset. This work highlights the need for further research into the science and mechanistic interpretability of LLMs. We have made the associated code and data publicly accessible to support future studies at https://github.com/GAIR-NLP/ReAlign.

Object detection (OD) in computer vision has made significant progress in recent years, transitioning from closed-set labels to open-vocabulary detection (OVD) based on large-scale vision-language pre-training (VLP). However, current evaluation methods and datasets are limited to testing generalization over object types and referral expressions, which do not provide a systematic, fine-grained, and accurate benchmark of OVD models' abilities. In this paper, we propose a new benchmark named OVDEval, which includes 9 sub-tasks and introduces evaluations on commonsense knowledge, attribute understanding, position understanding, object relation comprehension, and more. The dataset is meticulously created to provide hard negatives that challenge models' true understanding of visual and linguistic input. Additionally, we identify a problem with the popular Average Precision (AP) metric when benchmarking models on these fine-grained label datasets and propose a new metric called Non-Maximum Suppression Average Precision (NMS-AP) to address this issue. Extensive experimental results show that existing top OVD models all fail on the new tasks except for simple object types, demonstrating the value of the proposed dataset in pinpointing the weakness of current OVD models and guiding future research. Furthermore, the proposed NMS-AP metric is verified by experiments to provide a much more truthful evaluation of OVD models, whereas traditional AP metrics yield deceptive results. Data is available at https://github.com/om-ai-lab/OVDEval

Recent work on chain-of-thought (CoT) faithfulness reports single aggregate numbers (e.g., DeepSeek-R1 acknowledges hints 39% of the time), implying that faithfulness is an objective, measurable property of a model. This paper demonstrates that it is not. Three classifiers (a regex-only detector, a two-stage regex-plus-LLM pipeline, and an independent Claude Sonnet 4 judge) are applied to 10,276 influenced reasoning traces from 12 open-weight models spanning 9 families and 7B to 1T parameters. On identical data, these classifiers produce overall faithfulness rates of 74.4%, 82.6%, and 69.7%, respectively, with non-overlapping 95% confidence intervals. Per-model gaps range from 2.6 to 30.6 percentage points; all are statistically significant (McNemar's test, p < 0.001). The disagreements are systematic, not random: inter-classifier agreement measured by Cohen's kappa ranges from 0.06 ("slight") for sycophancy hints to 0.42 ("moderate") for grader hints, and the asymmetry is pronounced: for sycophancy, 883 cases are classified as faithful by the pipeline but unfaithful by the Sonnet judge, while only 2 go the other direction. Classifier choice can also reverse model rankings: Qwen3.5-27B ranks 1st under the pipeline but 7th under the Sonnet judge; OLMo-3.1-32B moves in the opposite direction, from 9th to 3rd. The root cause is that different classifiers operationalize related faithfulness constructs at different levels of stringency (lexical mention versus epistemic dependence), and these constructs yield divergent measurements on the same behavior. These results demonstrate that published faithfulness numbers cannot be meaningfully compared across studies that use different classifiers, and that future evaluations should report sensitivity ranges across multiple classification methodologies rather than single point estimates.

One out of four children in India are leaving grade eight without basic reading skills. Measuring the reading levels in a vast country like India poses significant hurdles. Recent advances in machine learning opens up the possibility of automating this task. However, the datasets of children's speech are not only rare but are primarily in English. To solve this assessment problem and advance deep learning research in regional Indian languages, we present the ASER dataset of children in the age group of 6-14. The dataset consists of 5,301 subjects generating 81,330 labeled audio clips in Hindi, Marathi and English. These labels represent expert opinions on the child's ability to read at a specified level. Using this dataset, we built a simple ASR-based classifier. Early results indicate that we can achieve a prediction accuracy of 86% for the English language. Considering the ASER survey spans half a million subjects, this dataset can grow to those scales.

Practitioners make three prompt-design decisions with almost no controlled evidence behind them: how to format instructions and context (markdown, plain text, prose, or tabular), how many simultaneous instructions a system prompt can carry before compliance degrades, and how much context a model can hold before recall and honesty degrade. We report two controlled experiments crossing all three factors on one held, contamination-free synthetic corpus (the "Book of Veyra," 8,780 uniquely-named entities, deterministically regenerable from a fixed seed), evaluated across five models. Experiment 1 (960 calls/model) measures instruction-following decay as rule count N grows from 10 to 160, crossed with four formats and system-prompt vs. user-turn placement. Perfect-response rate collapses to zero by N=80 for every model, format, and placement. Placement produces effects at least as large as format at N=160 in most models, but the direction is model-specific. No model shows a reliable markdown advantage; one 35B model favors plain text instead. Experiment 2 (5,520 calls/model) measures recall accuracy, false-premise sycophancy, and absent-fact fabrication across a 2k-to-512k-token context ladder in the same four formats. Recall stays near ceiling through 64-128k tokens, then degrades sharply and format-dependently: one model's accuracy spread reaches 48 points at 128k tokens. Fabrication never occurs (0/5,760 probes), and sycophancy stays negligible (<=8.3%). What rises sharply near each model's context ceiling is outright refusal to answer (0% to 79-90%), distinct from sycophancy or fabrication. Neither pre-registered format ordering holds, and token overhead (+22% to +37% over plain text) further changes which format is preferable where accuracy spread is genuine. We release the full harness, corpus generator, and raw results (VeyraBench): https://github.com/iNetanel/veyrabench