Daily Papers

Large language model (LLM)-based coding agents achieve impressive results on controlled benchmarks yet routinely produce pull requests that real maintainers reject. The root cause is not functional incorrectness but a lack of organicity: generated code ignores project-specific conventions, duplicates functionality already provided by internal APIs, and violates implicit architectural constraints accumulated over years of development. Simply exposing an agent to the latest repository snapshot is not enough: the snapshot reveals the final state of the codebase, but not the repository-specific change patterns by which that state was reached. We introduce Learning to Commit, a framework that closes this gap through Online Repository Memory. Given a repository with a strict chronological split, the agent performs supervised contrastive reflection on earlier commits: it blindly attempts to resolve each historical issue, compares its prediction against the oracle diff, and distils the gap into a continuously growing set of skills-reusable patterns capturing coding style, internal API usage, and architectural invariants. When a new PR description arrives, the agent conditions its generation on these accumulated skills, producing changes grounded in the project's own evolution rather than generic pretraining priors. Evaluation is conducted on genuinely future, merged pull requests that could not have been seen during the skill-building phase, and spans multiple dimensions including functional correctness, code-style consistency, internal API reuse rate, and modified-region plausibility. Experiments on an expert-maintained repository with rich commit history show that Online Repository Memory effectively improves organicity scores on held-out future tasks.

We present As-Plausible-as-Possible (APAP) mesh deformation technique that leverages 2D diffusion priors to preserve the plausibility of a mesh under user-controlled deformation. Our framework uses per-face Jacobians to represent mesh deformations, where mesh vertex coordinates are computed via a differentiable Poisson Solve. The deformed mesh is rendered, and the resulting 2D image is used in the Score Distillation Sampling (SDS) process, which enables extracting meaningful plausibility priors from a pretrained 2D diffusion model. To better preserve the identity of the edited mesh, we fine-tune our 2D diffusion model with LoRA. Gradients extracted by SDS and a user-prescribed handle displacement are then backpropagated to the per-face Jacobians, and we use iterative gradient descent to compute the final deformation that balances between the user edit and the output plausibility. We evaluate our method with 2D and 3D meshes and demonstrate qualitative and quantitative improvements when using plausibility priors over geometry-preservation or distortion-minimization priors used by previous techniques. Our project page is at: https://as-plausible-aspossible.github.io/

Counterfactual explanations are attracting significant attention due to the flourishing applications of machine learning models in consequential domains. A counterfactual plan consists of multiple possibilities to modify a given instance so that the model's prediction will be altered. As the predictive model can be updated subject to the future arrival of new data, a counterfactual plan may become ineffective or infeasible with respect to the future values of the model parameters. In this work, we study the counterfactual plans under model uncertainty, in which the distribution of the model parameters is partially prescribed using only the first- and second-moment information. First, we propose an uncertainty quantification tool to compute the lower and upper bounds of the probability of validity for any given counterfactual plan. We then provide corrective methods to adjust the counterfactual plan to improve the validity measure. The numerical experiments validate our bounds and demonstrate that our correction increases the robustness of the counterfactual plans in different real-world datasets.

Modern video editing techniques have achieved high visual fidelity when inserting video objects. However, they focus on optimizing visual fidelity rather than physical causality, leading to edits that are physically inconsistent with their environment. In this work, we present Place-it-R1, an end-to-end framework for video object insertion that unlocks the environment-aware reasoning potential of Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs). Our framework leverages the Chain-of-Thought (CoT) reasoning of MLLMs to orchestrate video diffusion, following a Think-then-Place paradigm. To bridge cognitive reasoning and generative execution, we introduce three key innovations: First, MLLM performs physical scene understanding and interaction reasoning, generating environment-aware chain-of-thought tokens and inferring valid insertion regions to explicitly guide the diffusion toward physically plausible insertion. Then, we introduce MLLM-guided Spatial Direct Preference Optimization (DPO), where diffusion outputs are fed back to the MLLM for scoring, enabling visual naturalness. During inference, the MLLM iteratively triggers refinement cycles and elicits adaptive adjustments from the diffusion model, forming a closed-loop that progressively enhances editing quality. Furthermore, we provide two user-selectable modes: a plausibility-oriented flexible mode that permits environment modifications (\eg, generating support structures) to enhance physical plausibility, and a fidelity-oriented standard mode that preserves scene integrity for maximum fidelity, offering users explicit control over the plausibility-fidelity trade-off. Extensive experiments demonstrate Place-it-R1 achieves physically-coherent video object insertion compared with state-of-the-art solutions and commercial models.

We develop a method to generate predictive regions that cover a multivariate response variable with a user-specified probability. Our work is composed of two components. First, we use a deep generative model to learn a representation of the response that has a unimodal distribution. Existing multiple-output quantile regression approaches are effective in such cases, so we apply them on the learned representation, and then transform the solution to the original space of the response. This process results in a flexible and informative region that can have an arbitrary shape, a property that existing methods lack. Second, we propose an extension of conformal prediction to the multivariate response setting that modifies any method to return sets with a pre-specified coverage level. The desired coverage is theoretically guaranteed in the finite-sample case for any distribution. Experiments conducted on both real and synthetic data show that our method constructs regions that are significantly smaller compared to existing techniques.

Foundation models in video generation are demonstrating remarkable capabilities as potential world models for simulating the physical world. However, their application in high-stakes domains like surgery, which demand deep, specialized causal knowledge rather than general physical rules, remains a critical unexplored gap. To systematically address this challenge, we present SurgVeo, the first expert-curated benchmark for video generation model evaluation in surgery, and the Surgical Plausibility Pyramid (SPP), a novel, four-tiered framework tailored to assess model outputs from basic appearance to complex surgical strategy. On the basis of the SurgVeo benchmark, we task the advanced Veo-3 model with a zero-shot prediction task on surgical clips from laparoscopic and neurosurgical procedures. A panel of four board-certified surgeons evaluates the generated videos according to the SPP. Our results reveal a distinct "plausibility gap": while Veo-3 achieves exceptional Visual Perceptual Plausibility, it fails critically at higher levels of the SPP, including Instrument Operation Plausibility, Environment Feedback Plausibility, and Surgical Intent Plausibility. This work provides the first quantitative evidence of the chasm between visually convincing mimicry and causal understanding in surgical AI. Our findings from SurgVeo and the SPP establish a crucial foundation and roadmap for developing future models capable of navigating the complexities of specialized, real-world healthcare domains.

A prominent challenge of offline reinforcement learning (RL) is the issue of hidden confounding: unobserved variables may influence both the actions taken by the agent and the observed outcomes. Hidden confounding can compromise the validity of any causal conclusion drawn from data and presents a major obstacle to effective offline RL. In the present paper, we tackle the problem of hidden confounding in the nonidentifiable setting. We propose a definition of uncertainty due to hidden confounding bias, termed delphic uncertainty, which uses variation over world models compatible with the observations, and differentiate it from the well-known epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties. We derive a practical method for estimating the three types of uncertainties, and construct a pessimistic offline RL algorithm to account for them. Our method does not assume identifiability of the unobserved confounders, and attempts to reduce the amount of confounding bias. We demonstrate through extensive experiments and ablations the efficacy of our approach on a sepsis management benchmark, as well as on electronic health records. Our results suggest that nonidentifiable hidden confounding bias can be mitigated to improve offline RL solutions in practice.

The AMS-02 experiment recently published time-dependent fluxes of deuterons (D) from May 2011 to April 2021, divided into 33 periods of four Bartels rotations each. These temporal structures are associated with solar modulation. In this study, three modified force-field approximation are employed to examine the long-term behavior of cosmic-ray (CR) isotopes such as D, ^3He, and ^4He, as well as the ratios D/^3He and ^3He/^4He. The solar modulation potential is rigidity-dependent for these modified force-field approximation models. Due to the unknown local interstellar spectrum (LIS) for these isotopes, we utilize the Non-LIS method for solar modulation. By fitting to the AMS-02 time-dependent fluxes, we derive the solar modulation parameters. Our findings prove the assumption in literature that all isotopes can be fitted using the same solar modulation parameters and it shown that the modified FFA models are validated parametrization for solar modulation. Based on these, we forecast the daily fluxes of D, ^3He and ^4He from 2011 to 2020.

Debates about whether development projects improve living conditions persist, partly because observational estimates can be biased by incomplete adjustment and because reliable outcome data are scarce at the neighborhood level. We address both issues in a continent-scale, sector-specific evaluation of Chinese and World Bank projects across 9,899 neighborhoods in 36 African countries (2002 to 2013), representative of 88% of the population. First, we use a recent dataset that measures living conditions with a machine-learned wealth index derived from contemporaneous satellite imagery, yielding a consistent panel of 6.7 km square mosaics. Second, to strengthen identification, we proxy officials' map-based placement criteria using pre-treatment daytime satellite images and fuse these with rich tabular covariates to estimate funder- and sector-specific ATEs via inverse-probability weighting. Incorporating imagery systematically shrinks effects relative to tabular-only models, indicating prior work likely overstated benefits. On average, both donors raise wealth, with larger gains for China; sector extremes in our sample include Trade and Tourism for the World Bank (+6.27 IWI points), and Emergency Response for China (+14.32). Assignment-mechanism analyses show World Bank placement is generally more predictable from imagery alone, as well as from tabular covariates. This suggests that Chinese project placements are more driven by non-visible, political, or event-driven factors than World Bank placements. To probe residual concerns about selection on observables, we also estimate within-neighborhood (unit) fixed-effects models at a spatial resolution about 450 times finer than prior fixed effects analyses, leveraging the computer-vision-imputed IWI panels; these deliver smaller but directionally consistent effects.

We propose a training-free approach to 3D editing that enables the editing of a single shape within a few minutes. The edited 3D mesh aligns well with the prompts, and remains identical for regions that are not intended to be altered. To this end, we first project the 3D object onto 4-view images and perform synchronized multi-view image editing along with user-guided text prompts and user-provided rough masks. However, the targeted regions to be edited are ambiguous due to projection from 3D to 2D. To ensure precise editing only in intended regions, we develop a 3D segmentation pipeline that detects edited areas in 3D space, followed by a merging algorithm to seamlessly integrate edited 3D regions with the original input. Extensive experiments demonstrate the superiority of our method over previous approaches, enabling fast, high-quality editing while preserving unintended regions.

Many social and environmental phenomena are associated with macroscopic changes in the built environment, captured by satellite imagery on a global scale and with daily temporal resolution. While widely used for prediction, these images and especially image sequences remain underutilized for causal inference, especially in the context of randomized controlled trials (RCTs), where causal identification is established by design. In this paper, we develop and compare a set of general tools for analyzing Conditional Average Treatment Effects (CATEs) from temporal satellite data that can be applied to any RCT where geographical identifiers are available. Through a simulation study, we analyze different modeling strategies for estimating CATE in sequences of satellite images. We find that image sequence representation models with more parameters generally yield a greater ability to detect heterogeneity. To explore the role of model and data choice in practice, we apply the approaches to two influential RCTs -- Banerjee et al. (2015), a poverty study in Cusco, Peru, and Bolsen et al. (2014), a water conservation experiment in Georgia, USA. We benchmark our image sequence models against image-only, tabular-only, and combined image-tabular data sources, summarizing practical implications for investigators in a multivariate analysis. Land cover classifications over satellite images facilitate interpretation of what image features drive heterogeneity. We also show robustness to data and model choice of satellite-based generalization of the RCT results to larger geographical areas outside the original. Overall, this paper shows how satellite sequence data can be incorporated into the analysis of RCTs, and provides evidence about the implications of data, model, and evaluation metric choice for causal analysis.

Large language models (LLMs) show inherent brittleness in their safety mechanisms, as evidenced by their susceptibility to jailbreaking and even non-malicious fine-tuning. This study explores this brittleness of safety alignment by leveraging pruning and low-rank modifications. We develop methods to identify critical regions that are vital for safety guardrails, and that are disentangled from utility-relevant regions at both the neuron and rank levels. Surprisingly, the isolated regions we find are sparse, comprising about 3% at the parameter level and 2.5% at the rank level. Removing these regions compromises safety without significantly impacting utility, corroborating the inherent brittleness of the model's safety mechanisms. Moreover, we show that LLMs remain vulnerable to low-cost fine-tuning attacks even when modifications to the safety-critical regions are restricted. These findings underscore the urgent need for more robust safety strategies in LLMs.

Contemporary diffusion models show remarkable capability in text-to-image generation, while still being limited to restricted resolutions (e.g., 1,024 X 1,024). Recent advances enable tuning-free higher-resolution image generation by recycling pre-trained diffusion models and extending them via regional denoising or dilated sampling/convolutions. However, these models struggle to simultaneously preserve global semantic structure and produce creative regional details in higher-resolution images. To address this, we present C-Upscale, a new recipe of tuning-free image upscaling that pivots on global-regional priors derived from given global prompt and estimated regional prompts via Multimodal LLM. Technically, the low-frequency component of low-resolution image is recognized as global structure prior to encourage global semantic consistency in high-resolution generation. Next, we perform regional attention control to screen cross-attention between global prompt and each region during regional denoising, leading to regional attention prior that alleviates object repetition issue. The estimated regional prompts containing rich descriptive details further act as regional semantic prior to fuel the creativity of regional detail generation. Both quantitative and qualitative evaluations demonstrate that our C-Upscale manages to generate ultra-high-resolution images (e.g., 4,096 X 4,096 and 8,192 X 8,192) with higher visual fidelity and more creative regional details.

In science and medicine, model interpretations may be reported as discoveries of natural phenomena or used to guide patient treatments. In such high-stakes tasks, false discoveries may lead investigators astray. These applications would therefore benefit from control over the finite-sample error rate of interpretations. We reframe black box model interpretability as a multiple hypothesis testing problem. The task is to discover "important" features by testing whether the model prediction is significantly different from what would be expected if the features were replaced with uninformative counterfactuals. We propose two testing methods: one that provably controls the false discovery rate but which is not yet feasible for large-scale applications, and an approximate testing method which can be applied to real-world data sets. In simulation, both tests have high power relative to existing interpretability methods. When applied to state-of-the-art vision and language models, the framework selects features that intuitively explain model predictions. The resulting explanations have the additional advantage that they are themselves easy to interpret.

Out-of-distribution (OOD) prediction is often approached by restricting models to causal or invariant covariates, avoiding non-causal spurious associations that may be unstable across environments. Despite its theoretical appeal, this strategy frequently underperforms empirical risk minimization (ERM) in practice. We investigate the source of this gap and show that such failures naturally arise when only a subset of the true causes of the outcome is observed. In these settings, non-causal spurious covariates can serve as informative proxies for unobserved causes and substantially improve prediction, except under distribution shifts that break these proxy relationships. Consequently, the optimal set of predictive covariates is neither universal nor necessarily exhibits invariant relationships with the outcome across all environments, but instead depends on the specific type of shift encountered. Crucially, we observe that different covariate shifts induce distinct, observable signatures in the covariate distribution itself. Moreover, these signatures can be extracted from unlabeled data in the target OOD environment and used to assess when proxy covariates remain reliable and when they fail. Building on this observation, we propose an environment-adaptive covariate selection (EACS) algorithm that maps environment-level covariate summaries to environment-specific covariate sets, while allowing the incorporation of prior causal knowledge as constraints. Across simulations and applied datasets, EACS consistently outperforms static causal, invariant, and ERM-based predictors under diverse distribution shifts.