Daily Papers

Intelligent scaling of microservices in cloud platforms is crucial for mitigating escalating compute costs while avoiding service disruptions. Current solutions are limited to the univariate space, typically focusing on CPU usage alone to drive scaling decisions. Moreover, they address the problem as a purely forecasting task, focusing on prediction precision while neglecting the greater risks of underestimation and delays in system responsiveness. Alternative solutions are computationally complex, making them impractical for large-scale, real-time deployments. To address these challenges, we present STARIXNet, a lightweight neural network that guides resource allocation decisions in the multivariate space by capturing spatio-temporal relationships among multiple system metrics. STARIXNet models multiple quasi-dependent attributes, in particular the (S)easonal, (T)emporal, (A)uto-(R)egressive (I)ntegrated, and e(X)ogenous patterns, then implements an aggregation policy to finalize scaling decisions, prioritizing service stability, followed by cost-efficiency, over raw forecast accuracy. We empirically demonstrate the performance of STARIXNet by benchmarking against existing solutions in real-world settings. STARIXNet is deployed for critical production microservices at Walmart achieving tangible savings ranging from 10\% to 50\%, in addition to intangible benefits through improved service stability and customer experience.

Modeling multivariate time series is a well-established problem with a wide range of applications from healthcare to financial markets. Traditional State Space Models (SSMs) are classical approaches for univariate time series modeling due to their simplicity and expressive power to represent linear dependencies. They, however, have fundamentally limited expressive power to capture non-linear dependencies, are slow in practice, and fail to model the inter-variate information flow. Despite recent attempts to improve the expressive power of SSMs by using deep structured SSMs, the existing methods are either limited to univariate time series, fail to model complex patterns (e.g., seasonal patterns), fail to dynamically model the dependencies of variate and time dimensions, and/or are input-independent. We present Chimera that uses two input-dependent 2-D SSM heads with different discretization processes to learn long-term progression and seasonal patterns. To improve the efficiency of complex 2D recurrence, we present a fast training using a new 2-dimensional parallel selective scan. We further present and discuss 2-dimensional Mamba and Mamba-2 as the spacial cases of our 2D SSM. Our experimental evaluation shows the superior performance of Chimera on extensive and diverse benchmarks, including ECG and speech time series classification, long-term and short-term time series forecasting, and time series anomaly detection.

Recent advancements in multivariate time series forecasting have been propelled by Linear-based, Transformer-based, and Convolution-based models, with Transformer-based architectures gaining prominence for their efficacy in temporal and cross-channel mixing. More recently, Mamba, a state space model, has emerged with robust sequence and feature mixing capabilities. However, the suitability of the vanilla Mamba design for time series forecasting remains an open question, particularly due to its inadequate handling of cross-channel dependencies. Capturing cross-channel dependencies is critical in enhancing the performance of multivariate time series prediction. Recent findings show that self-attention excels in capturing cross-channel dependencies, whereas other simpler mechanisms, such as MLP, may degrade model performance. This is counterintuitive, as MLP, being a learnable architecture, should theoretically capture both correlations and irrelevances, potentially leading to neutral or improved performance. Diving into the self-attention mechanism, we attribute the observed degradation in MLP performance to its lack of data dependence and global receptive field, which result in MLP's lack of generalization ability. Based on the above insights, we introduce a refined Mamba variant tailored for time series forecasting. Our proposed model, CMamba, incorporates a modified Mamba (M-Mamba) module for temporal dependencies modeling, a global data-dependent MLP (GDD-MLP) to effectively capture cross-channel dependencies, and a Channel Mixup mechanism to mitigate overfitting. Comprehensive experiments conducted on seven real-world datasets demonstrate the efficacy of our model in improving forecasting performance.

Recent advances in efficient sequence modeling have introduced selective state-space layers, a key component of the Mamba architecture, which have demonstrated remarkable success in a wide range of NLP and vision tasks. While Mamba's empirical performance has matched or surpassed SoTA transformers on such diverse benchmarks, the theoretical foundations underlying its powerful representational capabilities remain less explored. In this work, we investigate the expressivity of selective state-space layers using multivariate polynomials, and prove that they surpass linear transformers in expressiveness. Consequently, our findings reveal that Mamba offers superior representational power over linear attention-based models for long sequences, while not sacrificing their generalization. Our theoretical insights are validated by a comprehensive set of empirical experiments on various datasets.

Transformers have widely adopted attention networks for sequence mixing and MLPs for channel mixing, playing a pivotal role in achieving breakthroughs across domains. However, recent literature highlights issues with attention networks, including low inductive bias and quadratic complexity concerning input sequence length. State Space Models (SSMs) like S4 and others (Hippo, Global Convolutions, liquid S4, LRU, Mega, and Mamba), have emerged to address the above issues to help handle longer sequence lengths. Mamba, while being the state-of-the-art SSM, has a stability issue when scaled to large networks for computer vision datasets. We propose SiMBA, a new architecture that introduces Einstein FFT (EinFFT) for channel modeling by specific eigenvalue computations and uses the Mamba block for sequence modeling. Extensive performance studies across image and time-series benchmarks demonstrate that SiMBA outperforms existing SSMs, bridging the performance gap with state-of-the-art transformers. Notably, SiMBA establishes itself as the new state-of-the-art SSM on ImageNet and transfer learning benchmarks such as Stanford Car and Flower as well as task learning benchmarks as well as seven time series benchmark datasets. The project page is available on this website ~https://github.com/badripatro/Simba.

Time-series forecasting in domains like traffic management and industrial monitoring often requires real-time, energy-efficient processing on edge devices with limited resources. Spiking neural networks (SNNs) offer event-driven computation and ultra-low power and have been proposed for use in this space. Unfortunately, existing SNN-based time-series forecasters often use complex transformer blocks. To address this issue, we propose SpikySpace, a spiking state-space model (SSM) that reduces the quadratic cost in the attention block to linear time via spiking selective scanning. Further, we introduce PTsoftplus and PTSiLU, two efficient approximations of SiLU and Softplus that replace costly exponential and division operations with simple bit-shifts. Evaluated on four multivariate time-series benchmarks, SpikySpace outperforms the leading SNN in terms of accuracy by up to 3.0% while reducing energy consumption by over 96.1%. As the first fully spiking state-space model, SpikySpace bridges neuromorphic efficiency with modern sequence modeling, opening a practical path toward efficient time series forecasting systems. Our code is available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/SpikySpace.

Machine learning has vast potential to improve anomaly detection in satellite telemetry which is a crucial task for spacecraft operations. This potential is currently hampered by a lack of comprehensible benchmarks for multivariate time series anomaly detection, especially for the challenging case of satellite telemetry. The European Space Agency Benchmark for Anomaly Detection in Satellite Telemetry (ESA-ADB) aims to address this challenge and establish a new standard in the domain. It is a result of close cooperation between spacecraft operations engineers from the European Space Agency (ESA) and machine learning experts. The newly introduced ESA Anomalies Dataset contains annotated real-life telemetry from three different ESA missions, out of which two are included in ESA-ADB. Results of typical anomaly detection algorithms assessed in our novel hierarchical evaluation pipeline show that new approaches are necessary to address operators' needs. All elements of ESA-ADB are publicly available to ensure its full reproducibility.

Pre-trained foundation models (FMs) have shown exceptional performance in univariate time series forecasting tasks. However, several practical challenges persist, including managing intricate dependencies among features and quantifying uncertainty in predictions. This study aims to tackle these critical limitations by introducing adapters; feature-space transformations that facilitate the effective use of pre-trained univariate time series FMs for multivariate tasks. Adapters operate by projecting multivariate inputs into a suitable latent space and applying the FM independently to each dimension. Inspired by the literature on representation learning and partially stochastic Bayesian neural networks, we present a range of adapters and optimization/inference strategies. Experiments conducted on both synthetic and real-world datasets confirm the efficacy of adapters, demonstrating substantial enhancements in forecasting accuracy and uncertainty quantification compared to baseline methods. Our framework, AdaPTS, positions adapters as a modular, scalable, and effective solution for leveraging time series FMs in multivariate contexts, thereby promoting their wider adoption in real-world applications. We release the code at https://github.com/abenechehab/AdaPTS.

We introduce WARP (Weight-space Adaptive Recurrent Prediction), a simple yet powerful model that unifies weight-space learning with linear recurrence to redefine sequence modeling. Unlike conventional recurrent neural networks (RNNs) which collapse temporal dynamics into fixed-dimensional hidden states, WARP explicitly parametrizes its hidden state as the weights and biases of a distinct auxiliary neural network, and uses input differences to drive its recurrence. This brain-inspired formulation enables efficient gradient-free adaptation of the auxiliary network at test-time, in-context learning abilities, and seamless integration of domain-specific physical priors. Empirical validation shows that WARP matches or surpasses state-of-the-art baselines on diverse classification tasks, featuring in the top three in 5 out of 6 real-world challenging datasets. Furthermore, extensive experiments across sequential image completion, multivariate time series forecasting, and dynamical system reconstruction demonstrate its expressiveness and generalisation capabilities. Remarkably, a physics-informed variant of our model outperforms the next best model by more than 10x. Ablation studies confirm the architectural necessity of key components, solidifying weight-space linear RNNs as a transformative paradigm for adaptive machine intelligence.

Accurate and efficient long-term multivariate time series forecasting requires capturing recurring temporal structure while keeping inference cheap across many variables and horizons. Frequency-space models represent long-range and periodic variation compactly, but they typically process the real and imaginary spectral components as weakly coupled streams and treat periodic cues as ordinary input features, even when such cues are unreliable. This paper proposes FRWKV-Plus, a lightweight periodic-aware frequency-space forecasting model built on the efficient FRWKV backbone. FRWKV-Plus introduces a cross-branch spectral gate that reweights each spectral branch using a summary of its sibling branch, and a trust-gated residual correction that converts compact within-period context into a bounded, sign-flexible adjustment of these gates under a learned, data-dependent trust score. By construction, the correction is identity-preserving at initialization and strictly bounded, so periodic evidence can refine but never dominate or invert the base interaction. On seven standard benchmarks, FRWKV-Plus is consistently competitive with strong linear, frequency-domain, recurrent-style, and Transformer-based forecasters while preserving the lightweight profile of the backbone. Controlled three-seed ablations show that each component contributes, that the benefit is modest on strongly periodic data and pronounced on the harder Exchange and ILI datasets, and that the within-period context is the most influential single component. The implementation is publicly available at https://github.com/yangqingyuan-byte/FRWKV-plus.

World modelling is essential for understanding and predicting the dynamics of complex systems by learning both spatial and temporal dependencies. However, current frameworks, such as Transformers and selective state-space models like Mambas, exhibit limitations in efficiently encoding spatial and temporal structures, particularly in scenarios requiring long-term high-dimensional sequence modelling. To address these issues, we propose a novel recurrent framework, the FACTored State-space (FACTS) model, for spatial-temporal world modelling. The FACTS framework constructs a graph-structured memory with a routing mechanism that learns permutable memory representations, ensuring invariance to input permutations while adapting through selective state-space propagation. Furthermore, FACTS supports parallel computation of high-dimensional sequences. We empirically evaluate FACTS across diverse tasks, including multivariate time series forecasting, object-centric world modelling, and spatial-temporal graph prediction, demonstrating that it consistently outperforms or matches specialised state-of-the-art models, despite its general-purpose world modelling design.

Understanding the robustness of deep learning models for multivariate long-term time series forecasting (M-LTSF) remains challenging, as evaluations typically rely on real-world datasets with unknown noise properties. We propose a simulation-based evaluation framework that generates parameterizable synthetic datasets, where each dataset instance corresponds to a different configuration of signal components, noise types, signal-to-noise ratios, and frequency characteristics. These configurable components aim to model real-world multivariate time series data without the ambiguity of unknown noise. This framework enables fine-grained, systematic evaluation of M-LTSF models under controlled and diverse scenarios. We benchmark four representative architectures S-Mamba (state-space), iTransformer (transformer-based), R-Linear (linear), and Autoformer (decomposition-based). Our analysis reveals that all models degrade severely when lookback windows cannot capture complete periods of seasonal patters in the data. S-Mamba and Autoformer perform best on sawtooth patterns, while R-Linear and iTransformer favor sinusoidal signals. White and Brownian noise universally degrade performance with lower signal-to-noise ratio while S-Mamba shows specific trend-noise and iTransformer shows seasonal-noise vulnerability. Further spectral analysis shows that S-Mamba and iTransformer achieve superior frequency reconstruction. This controlled approach, based on our synthetic and principle-driven testbed, offers deeper insights into model-specific strengths and limitations through the aggregation of MSE scores and provides concrete guidance for model selection based on signal characteristics and noise conditions.

In this paper, we propose a dimensionless anomaly detection method for multivariate streams. Our method is independent of the unit of measurement for the different stream channels, therefore dimensionless. We first propose the variance norm, a generalisation of Mahalanobis distance to handle infinite-dimensional feature space and singular empirical covariance matrix rigorously. We then combine the variance norm with the path signature, an infinite collection of iterated integrals that provide global features of streams, to propose SigMahaKNN, a method for anomaly detection on (multivariate) streams. We show that SigMahaKNN is invariant to stream reparametrisation, stream concatenation and has a graded discrimination power depending on the truncation level of the path signature. We implement SigMahaKNN as an open-source software, and perform extensive numerical experiments, showing significantly improved anomaly detection on streams compared to isolation forest and local outlier factors in applications ranging from language analysis, hand-writing analysis, ship movement paths analysis and univariate time-series analysis.

Real-world multivariate time series anomalies are rare and often unlabeled. Additionally, prevailing methods rely on increasingly complex architectures tuned to benchmarks, detecting only fragments of anomalous segments and overstating performance. In this paper, we introduce OracleAD, a simple and interpretable unsupervised framework for multivariate time series anomaly detection. OracleAD encodes each variable's past sequence into a single causal embedding to jointly predict the present time point and reconstruct the input window, effectively modeling temporal dynamics. These embeddings then undergo a self-attention mechanism to project them into a shared latent space and capture spatial relationships. These relationships are not static, since they are modeled by a property that emerges from each variable's temporal dynamics. The projected embeddings are aligned to a Stable Latent Structure (SLS) representing normal-state relationships. Anomalies are identified using a dual scoring mechanism based on prediction error and deviation from the SLS, enabling fine-grained anomaly diagnosis at each time point and across individual variables. Since any noticeable SLS deviation originates from embeddings that violate the learned temporal causality of normal data, OracleAD directly pinpoints the root-cause variables at the embedding level. OracleAD achieves state-of-the-art results across multiple real-world datasets and evaluation protocols, while remaining interpretable through SLS.

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) are transforming the forecasting paradigm through large-scale cross-domain pretraining. However, most existing TSFMs remain univariate, and recent efforts to enable cross-variate modeling still operate directly within the raw variate space. This design introduces fundamental limitations in semantic alignment and relational expressivity. Specifically, raw-space group mixing lacks a dedicated mechanism to align heterogeneous physical quantities, while standard non-negative attention fails to capture the complex synergistic and antagonistic interactions ubiquitous in real-world systems. To address these challenges, we propose Falcon-X, decouples variates from the raw space and maps them into a unified latent prototype space. Falcon-X employs a Unified Prototype Diff-Attention mechanism that explicitly evaluates both positive and negative semantic affinities to explicitly align heterogeneous variates. Cross-variate interactions are then efficiently performed within this shared space via Latent Entity Attention, naturally facilitating zero-shot structural transfer. Finally, a Variate Reassembly Router robustly reconstructs variate-specific trajectories via a request-and-dispatch mechanism. Extensive evaluations on the GIFT-Eval and fev-bench benchmarks demonstrate that Falcon-X achieves state-of-the-art forecasting performance, offering a principled and scalable paradigm for complex multivariate environments. Falcon-X is publicly released to support future research.

We study the problem of optimally projecting the transition matrix of a finite ergodic multivariate Markov chain onto a lower-dimensional state space. Specifically, we seek to construct a projected Markov chain that optimizes various information-theoretic criteria under cardinality constraints. These criteria include entropy rate, information-theoretic distance to factorizability, independence, and stationarity. We formulate these tasks as best subset selection problems over multivariate Markov chains and leverage the submodular (or supermodular) structure of the objective functions to develop efficient greedy-based algorithms with theoretical guarantees. We extend our analysis to k-submodular settings and introduce a generalized version of the distorted greedy algorithm, which may be of independent interest. Finally, we illustrate the theory and algorithms through extensive numerical experiments with publicly available code on multivariate Markov chains associated with the Bernoulli-Laplace and Curie-Weiss model.

Pre-trained Large Language Models (LLMs) encapsulate large amounts of knowledge and take enormous amounts of compute to train. We make use of this resource, together with the observation that LLMs are able to transfer knowledge and performance from one domain or even modality to another seemingly-unrelated area, to help with multivariate demand time series forecasting. Attention in transformer-based methods requires something worth attending to -- more than just samples of a time-series. We explore different methods to map multivariate input time series into the LLM token embedding space. In particular, our novel multivariate patching strategy to embed time series features into decoder-only pre-trained Transformers produces results competitive with state-of-the-art time series forecasting models. We also use recently-developed weight-based diagnostics to validate our findings.

Recent advances in deep learning have mainly relied on Transformers due to their data dependency and ability to learn at scale. The attention module in these architectures, however, exhibits quadratic time and space in input size, limiting their scalability for long-sequence modeling. Despite recent attempts to design efficient and effective architecture backbone for multi-dimensional data, such as images and multivariate time series, existing models are either data independent, or fail to allow inter- and intra-dimension communication. Recently, State Space Models (SSMs), and more specifically Selective State Space Models, with efficient hardware-aware implementation, have shown promising potential for long sequence modeling. Motivated by the success of SSMs, we present MambaMixer, a new architecture with data-dependent weights that uses a dual selection mechanism across tokens and channels, called Selective Token and Channel Mixer. MambaMixer connects selective mixers using a weighted averaging mechanism, allowing layers to have direct access to early features. As a proof of concept, we design Vision MambaMixer (ViM2) and Time Series MambaMixer (TSM2) architectures based on the MambaMixer block and explore their performance in various vision and time series forecasting tasks. Our results underline the importance of selective mixing across both tokens and channels. In ImageNet classification, object detection, and semantic segmentation tasks, ViM2 achieves competitive performance with well-established vision models and outperforms SSM-based vision models. In time series forecasting, TSM2 achieves outstanding performance compared to state-of-the-art methods while demonstrating significantly improved computational cost. These results show that while Transformers, cross-channel attention, and MLPs are sufficient for good performance in time series forecasting, neither is necessary.

Mining data streams with multi-label outputs poses significant challenges due to evolving distributions, high-dimensional label spaces, sparse label occurrences, and complex label dependencies. Moreover, concept drift affects not only input distributions but also label correlations and imbalance ratios over time, complicating model adaptation. To address these challenges, structured learners are categorized into local and global methods. Local methods break down the task into simpler components, while global methods adapt the algorithm to the full output space, potentially yielding better predictions by exploiting label correlations. This work introduces iHOMER (Incremental Hierarchy Of Multi-label Classifiers), an online multi-label learning framework that incrementally partitions the label space into disjoint, correlated clusters without relying on predefined hierarchies. iHOMER leverages online divisive-agglomerative clustering based on Jaccard similarity and a global tree-based learner driven by a multivariate Bernoulli process to guide instance partitioning. To address non-stationarity, it integrates drift detection mechanisms at both global and local levels, enabling dynamic restructuring of label partitions and subtrees. Experiments across 23 real-world datasets show iHOMER outperforms 5 state-of-the-art global baselines, such as MLHAT, MLHT of Pruned Sets and iSOUPT, by 23\%, and 12 local baselines, such as binary relevance transformations of kNN, EFDT, ARF, and ADWIN bagging/boosting ensembles, by 32\%, establishing its robustness for online multi-label classification.

Recently, there has been a growing interest in Long-term Time Series Forecasting (LTSF), which involves predicting long-term future values by analyzing a large amount of historical time-series data to identify patterns and trends. There exist significant challenges in LTSF due to its complex temporal dependencies and high computational demands. Although Transformer-based models offer high forecasting accuracy, they are often too compute-intensive to be deployed on devices with hardware constraints. On the other hand, the linear models aim to reduce the computational overhead by employing either decomposition methods in the time domain or compact representations in the frequency domain. In this paper, we propose MixLinear, an ultra-lightweight multivariate time series forecasting model specifically designed for resource-constrained devices. MixLinear effectively captures both temporal and frequency domain features by modeling intra-segment and inter-segment variations in the time domain and extracting frequency variations from a low-dimensional latent space in the frequency domain. By reducing the parameter scale of a downsampled n-length input/output one-layer linear model from O(n^2) to O(n), MixLinear achieves efficient computation without sacrificing accuracy. Extensive evaluations with four benchmark datasets show that MixLinear attains forecasting performance comparable to, or surpassing, state-of-the-art models with significantly fewer parameters (0.1K), which makes it well-suited for deployment on devices with limited computational capacity.

Multivariate time series (MTS) forecasting has shown great importance in numerous industries. Current state-of-the-art graph neural network (GNN)-based forecasting methods usually require both graph networks (e.g., GCN) and temporal networks (e.g., LSTM) to capture inter-series (spatial) dynamics and intra-series (temporal) dependencies, respectively. However, the uncertain compatibility of the two networks puts an extra burden on handcrafted model designs. Moreover, the separate spatial and temporal modeling naturally violates the unified spatiotemporal inter-dependencies in real world, which largely hinders the forecasting performance. To overcome these problems, we explore an interesting direction of directly applying graph networks and rethink MTS forecasting from a pure graph perspective. We first define a novel data structure, hypervariate graph, which regards each series value (regardless of variates or timestamps) as a graph node, and represents sliding windows as space-time fully-connected graphs. This perspective considers spatiotemporal dynamics unitedly and reformulates classic MTS forecasting into the predictions on hypervariate graphs. Then, we propose a novel architecture Fourier Graph Neural Network (FourierGNN) by stacking our proposed Fourier Graph Operator (FGO) to perform matrix multiplications in Fourier space. FourierGNN accommodates adequate expressiveness and achieves much lower complexity, which can effectively and efficiently accomplish the forecasting. Besides, our theoretical analysis reveals FGO's equivalence to graph convolutions in the time domain, which further verifies the validity of FourierGNN. Extensive experiments on seven datasets have demonstrated our superior performance with higher efficiency and fewer parameters compared with state-of-the-art methods.

We propose an abstract framework to establish the convergence of the iterates of stochastic versions of a broad range of monotone operator splitting methods in Hilbert spaces. This framework allows for the introduction of stochasticity at several levels: approximation of operators, selection of coordinates and operators in block-iterative implementations, and relaxation parameters. The proposed analysis involves a reduced inclusion model with two operators. At each iteration, stochastic approximations to points in the graphs of these two operators are used to form the update. The results are applied to derive the almost sure and L^2 convergence of stochastic versions of the proximal point algorithm, as well as of randomized block-iterative projective splitting methods for solving systems of coupled inclusions involving a mix of set-valued, cocoercive, and Lipschitzian monotone operators combined via various monotonicity-preserving operations.

Normalizing flows, a popular class of deep generative models, often fail to represent extreme phenomena observed in real-world processes. In particular, existing normalizing flow architectures struggle to model multivariate extremes, characterized by heavy-tailed marginal distributions and asymmetric tail dependence among variables. In light of this shortcoming, we propose COMET (COpula Multivariate ExTreme) Flows, which decompose the process of modeling a joint distribution into two parts: (i) modeling its marginal distributions, and (ii) modeling its copula distribution. COMET Flows capture heavy-tailed marginal distributions by combining a parametric tail belief at extreme quantiles of the marginals with an empirical kernel density function at mid-quantiles. In addition, COMET Flows capture asymmetric tail dependence among multivariate extremes by viewing such dependence as inducing a low-dimensional manifold structure in feature space. Experimental results on both synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of COMET Flows in capturing both heavy-tailed marginals and asymmetric tail dependence compared to other state-of-the-art baseline architectures. All code is available on GitHub at https://github.com/andrewmcdonald27/COMETFlows.

Mobile usage traces are critical for tasks such as user behavior prediction and app recommendation, yet their use is constrained by privacy restrictions and costly large-scale data collection. Although generative models perform well on general time series, their application to mobile usage data remains challenging because (i) limited user activity causes severe sparsity, (ii) heterogeneous variable types complicate joint modeling, and (iii) functional differences across apps create pronounced usage imbalance. To address these challenges, we propose Multivariate-Imaging Diffusion (MIDiff), a diffusion-based framework operating in an imaging space defined by Cross-Gramian Angular Sum Field (C-GASF). C-GASF transforms sparse multivariate sequences into correlation images, while MIDiff employs Triple Attention in a U-Net to preserve temporal consistency and variable dependencies. Experiments show that MIDiff achieves state-of-the-art performance across fidelity metrics. In particular, it obtains a Discriminative Accuracy (DA) of 0.1526, compared with 0.3476 for the strongest baseline, ZITS-VAE, demonstrating its effectiveness in generating realistic and diverse mobile usage traces. Our code is available at https://github.com/YilaiLiu-HKU/MIDiff.

Irregular multivariate time series forecasting is a challenging yet important problem in real-world applications, where observations are often irregularly sampled and asynchronously recorded across variables. Existing time series foundation models are mostly built on regularly sampled sequences, making them difficult to generalize to irregular time intervals and asynchronous cross-variable dependencies. To address these challenges, we propose QiYao-I, a manifold based foundation model for irregular multivariate time series forecasting. Specifically, we introduce a novel sampling-conditioned temporal manifold attention mechanism that maps real timestamps into a learnable temporal manifold feature space and injects temporal manifold biases into attention layers, enabling the model to capture both irregular time intervals and local sampling structures. Further, we propose a dynamic variable interaction mechanism with frequency awareness. It selectively performs cross-variable message passing under asynchronous observations. Extensive experiments on real-world irregular multivariate forecasting benchmarks demonstrate that QiYao-I achieves superior performance compared with both time series foundation models and end-to-end irregular forecasting models, showing strong generalization ability in zero-shot and few-shot settings.

Time Series Classification (TSC) is a long-standing research problem that has gained increasing attention in recent years with the rapid growth of large-scale temporal data. Despite substantial progress enabled by deep learning, designing TSC models that are both accurate and interpretable remains a challenging task. Many existing approaches adopt a direct feature-to-label classification paradigm, by collapsing high-dimensional temporal embeddings into class logits via a single linear projection (often after global pooling), the paradigm conflates feature extraction and decision logic into an inseparable mapping. To address these limitations, we propose PDFTime, a prototype-guided framework that reformulates time series classification as a multi-stage decision process. Instead of direct feature-to-label mapping, PDFTime leverages learned prototypes to approximate class-conditional feature distributions in the latent space, enabling progressive discrimination through classification sub-tasks of varying granularity. To our knowledge, PDFTime is the first framework to reformulate time series classification as a decoupled, multi-stage similarity-based reasoning process, breaking the long-standing paradigm of direct, black-box feature-to-label mapping. Extensive evaluations demonstrate that PDFTime achieves state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance across UEA and UCR benchmarks. Notably, it secures the top-1 accuracy on 80 out of 128 datasets in the UCR archive, significantly outperforming recent strong baselines in both consistency and generalization.

Recent space-borne and ground-based observations provide photometric measurements as time series. The effect of interstellar dust extinction in the near-infrared range is only 10% of that measured in the V band. However, the sensitivity of the light curve shape to the physical parameters in the near-infrared is much lower. So, interpreting these types of data sets requires new approaches like the different large-scale surveys, which create similar problems with big data. Using a selected data set, we provide a method for applying routines implemented in R to extract most information of measurements to determine physical parameters, which can also be used in automatic classification schemes and pipeline processing. We made a multivariate classification of 131 Cepheid light curves (LC) in J, H, and K colors, where all the LCs were represented in 20D parameter space in these colors separately. Performing a Principal Component Analysis (PCA), we got an orthogonal coordinate system and squared Euclidean distances between LCs, with 6 significant eigenvalues, reducing the 20-dimension to 6. We also estimated the optimal number of partitions of similar objects and found it to be equal to 7 in each color; their dependence on the period, absolute magnitude, amplitude, and metallicity are also discussed. We computed the Spearman rank correlations, showing that periods and absolute magnitudes correlate with the first three PCs significantly. The first two PC are also found to have a relationship with the amplitude, but the metallicity effects are only marginal. The method shown can be generalized and implemented in unsupervised classification schemes and analysis of mixed and biased samples. The analysis of our Classical Cepheid near-infrared LC sample showed that the J, H, K curves are insufficient for determination of stellar metallicity, with mass being the key factor shaping them.

This paper studies the properties of solutions to multi-task shallow ReLU neural network learning problems, wherein the network is trained to fit a dataset with minimal sum of squared weights. Remarkably, the solutions learned for each individual task resemble those obtained by solving a kernel regression problem, revealing a novel connection between neural networks and kernel methods. It is known that single-task neural network learning problems are equivalent to a minimum norm interpolation problem in a non-Hilbertian Banach space, and that the solutions of such problems are generally non-unique. In contrast, we prove that the solutions to univariate-input, multi-task neural network interpolation problems are almost always unique, and coincide with the solution to a minimum-norm interpolation problem in a Sobolev (Reproducing Kernel) Hilbert Space. We also demonstrate a similar phenomenon in the multivariate-input case; specifically, we show that neural network learning problems with large numbers of tasks are approximately equivalent to an ell^2 (Hilbert space) minimization problem over a fixed kernel determined by the optimal neurons.

Time series classification (TSC) on multivariate time series is a critical problem. We propose a novel multi-view approach integrating frequency-domain and time-domain features to provide complementary contexts for TSC. Our method fuses continuous wavelet transform spectral features with temporal convolutional or multilayer perceptron features. We leverage the Mamba state space model for efficient and scalable sequence modeling. We also introduce a novel tango scanning scheme to better model sequence relationships. Experiments on 10 standard benchmark datasets demonstrate our approach achieves an average 6.45% accuracy improvement over state-of-the-art TSC models.

Time series analysis has witnessed the inspiring development from traditional autoregressive models, deep learning models, to recent Transformers and Large Language Models (LLMs). Efforts in leveraging vision models for time series analysis have also been made along the way but are less visible to the community due to the predominant research on sequence modeling in this domain. However, the discrepancy between continuous time series and the discrete token space of LLMs, and the challenges in explicitly modeling the correlations of variates in multivariate time series have shifted some research attentions to the equally successful Large Vision Models (LVMs) and Vision Language Models (VLMs). To fill the blank in the existing literature, this survey discusses the advantages of vision models over LLMs in time series analysis. It provides a comprehensive and in-depth overview of the existing methods, with dual views of detailed taxonomy that answer the key research questions including how to encode time series as images and how to model the imaged time series for various tasks. Additionally, we address the challenges in the pre- and post-processing steps involved in this framework and outline future directions to further advance time series analysis with vision models.

Physiological time series signals reflect complex, multi-scale dynamical processes of the human body. Existing modeling studies focus on static tasks such as classification, event forecasting, or short-horizon next step prediction, while long-horizon signal-level forecasting and predictive nature of physiological signals remain underexplored. We introduce NormWear-2, a world model that encodes both multivariate physiological signals and clinical intervention variables into a shared latent space and models their joint temporal evolution as a dynamical system. Our approach combines inference from prior pre-trained knowledge (intuition) with instant non-parametric latent state transition adaptation (insight), enabling coherent forecasting across multiple temporal scales, conditioned on heterogeneous clinical interventions. During the pretraining phase, we find that chaos-theoretic balancing of dynamical regime diversity yields more robust representations, with a smaller balanced corpus outperforming one twice its size and capturing bifurcation regimes. We evaluate the world model performance across diverse real-world physiological datasets spanning heterogeneous temporal resolutions and intervention regimes, covering daily life, point-of-care, and clinical settings, including fitness planning, hemodialysis, diabetes management, and surgical monitoring. These evaluation datasets comprise records from 8,026 subjects, spanning study durations from 3.2 hours for high-resolution signal data to 2.3 years for longitudinal clinical biomarker tracking. NormWear-2 achieves the best overall forecasting performance across time, frequency, and latent representation domains, with significant improvements over state-of-the-art time series foundation models, while maintaining competitive downstream representation quality, providing a step toward general-purpose world models for physiological signals.

Differentiable particle filters are an emerging class of sequential Bayesian inference techniques that use neural networks to construct components in state space models. Existing approaches are mostly based on offline supervised training strategies. This leads to the delay of the model deployment and the obtained filters are susceptible to distribution shift of test-time data. In this paper, we propose an online learning framework for differentiable particle filters so that model parameters can be updated as data arrive. The technical constraint is that there is no known ground truth state information in the online inference setting. We address this by adopting an unsupervised loss to construct the online model updating procedure, which involves a sequence of filtering operations for online maximum likelihood-based parameter estimation. We empirically evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed method, and compare it with supervised learning methods in simulation settings including a multivariate linear Gaussian state-space model and a simulated object tracking experiment.

Convex relaxations are a key component of training and certifying provably safe neural networks. However, despite substantial progress, a wide and poorly understood accuracy gap to standard networks remains, raising the question of whether this is due to fundamental limitations of convex relaxations. Initial work investigating this question focused on the simple and widely used IBP relaxation. It revealed that some univariate, convex, continuous piecewise linear (CPWL) functions cannot be encoded by any ReLU network such that its IBP-analysis is precise. To explore whether this limitation is shared by more advanced convex relaxations, we conduct the first in-depth study on the expressive power of ReLU networks across all commonly used convex relaxations. We show that: (i) more advanced relaxations allow a larger class of univariate functions to be expressed as precisely analyzable ReLU networks, (ii) more precise relaxations can allow exponentially larger solution spaces of ReLU networks encoding the same functions, and (iii) even using the most precise single-neuron relaxations, it is impossible to construct precisely analyzable ReLU networks that express multivariate, convex, monotone CPWL functions.

In statistics, independent, identically distributed random samples do not carry a natural ordering, and their statistics are typically invariant with respect to permutations of their order. Thus, an n-sample in a space M can be considered as an element of the quotient space of M^n modulo the permutation group. The present paper takes this definition of sample space and the related concept of orbit types as a starting point for developing a geometric perspective on statistics. We aim at deriving a general mathematical setting for studying the behavior of empirical and population means in spaces ranging from smooth Riemannian manifolds to general stratified spaces. We fully describe the orbifold and path-metric structure of the sample space when M is a manifold or path-metric space, respectively. These results are non-trivial even when M is Euclidean. We show that the infinite sample space exists in a Gromov-Hausdorff type sense and coincides with the Wasserstein space of probability distributions on M. We exhibit Fr\'echet means and k-means as metric projections onto 1-skeleta or k-skeleta in Wasserstein space, and we define a new and more general notion of polymeans. This geometric characterization via metric projections applies equally to sample and population means, and we use it to establish asymptotic properties of polymeans such as consistency and asymptotic normality.

A multivariate time series refers to observations of two or more variables taken from a device or a system simultaneously over time. There is an increasing need to monitor multivariate time series and detect anomalies in real time to ensure proper system operation and good service quality. It is also highly desirable to have a lightweight anomaly detection system that considers correlations between different variables, adapts to changes in the pattern of the multivariate time series, offers immediate responses, and provides supportive information regarding detection results based on unsupervised learning and online model training. In the past decade, many multivariate time series anomaly detection approaches have been introduced. However, they are unable to offer all the above-mentioned features. In this paper, we propose RoLA, a real-time online lightweight anomaly detection system for multivariate time series based on a divide-and-conquer strategy, parallel processing, and the majority rule. RoLA employs multiple lightweight anomaly detectors to monitor multivariate time series in parallel, determine the correlations between variables dynamically on the fly, and then jointly detect anomalies based on the majority rule in real time. To demonstrate the performance of RoLA, we conducted an experiment based on a public dataset provided by the FerryBox of the One Ocean Expedition. The results show that RoLA provides satisfactory detection accuracy and lightweight performance.

Identifying low-dimensional latent structures within high-dimensional data has long been a central topic in the machine learning community, driven by the need for data compression, storage, transmission, and deeper data understanding. Traditional methods, such as principal component analysis (PCA) and autoencoders (AE), operate in an unsupervised manner, ignoring label information even when it is available. In this work, we introduce a unified method capable of learning latent spaces in both unsupervised and supervised settings. We formulate the problem as a nonlinear multiple-response regression within an index model context. By applying the generalized Stein's lemma, the latent space can be estimated without knowing the nonlinear link functions. Our method can be viewed as a nonlinear generalization of PCA. Moreover, unlike AE and other neural network methods that operate as "black boxes", our approach not only offers better interpretability but also reduces computational complexity while providing strong theoretical guarantees. Comprehensive numerical experiments and real data analyses demonstrate the superior performance of our method.

Spatial confounding poses a significant challenge in scientific studies involving spatial data, where unobserved spatial variables can influence both treatment and outcome, possibly leading to spurious associations. To address this problem, we introduce SpaCE: The Spatial Confounding Environment, the first toolkit to provide realistic benchmark datasets and tools for systematically evaluating causal inference methods designed to alleviate spatial confounding. Each dataset includes training data, true counterfactuals, a spatial graph with coordinates, and smoothness and confounding scores characterizing the effect of a missing spatial confounder. It also includes realistic semi-synthetic outcomes and counterfactuals, generated using state-of-the-art machine learning ensembles, following best practices for causal inference benchmarks. The datasets cover real treatment and covariates from diverse domains, including climate, health and social sciences. SpaCE facilitates an automated end-to-end pipeline, simplifying data loading, experimental setup, and evaluating machine learning and causal inference models. The SpaCE project provides several dozens of datasets of diverse sizes and spatial complexity. It is publicly available as a Python package, encouraging community feedback and contributions.

Dimensionality reduction is a fundamental task that aims to simplify complex data by reducing its feature dimensionality while preserving essential patterns, with core applications in data analysis and visualisation. To preserve the underlying data structure, multi-dimensional scaling (MDS) methods focus on preserving pairwise dissimilarities, such as distances. They optimise the embedding to have pairwise distances as close as possible to the data dissimilarities. However, the current standard is limited to embedding data in Riemannian manifolds. Motivated by the lack of asymmetry in the Riemannian metric of the embedding space, this paper extends the MDS problem to a natural asymmetric generalisation of Riemannian manifolds called Finsler manifolds. Inspired by Euclidean space, we define a canonical Finsler space for embedding asymmetric data. Due to its simplicity with respect to geodesics, data representation in this space is both intuitive and simple to analyse. We demonstrate that our generalisation benefits from the same theoretical convergence guarantees. We reveal the effectiveness of our Finsler embedding across various types of non-symmetric data, highlighting its value in applications such as data visualisation, dimensionality reduction, directed graph embedding, and link prediction.

Neural multivariate regression underpins a wide range of domains such as control, robotics, and finance, yet the geometry of its learned representations remains poorly characterized. While neural collapse has been shown to benefit generalization in classification, we find that analogous collapse in regression consistently degrades performance. To explain this contrast, we analyze models through the lens of intrinsic dimension. Across control tasks and synthetic datasets, we estimate the intrinsic dimension of last-layer features (ID_H) and compare it with that of the regression targets (ID_Y). Collapsed models exhibit ID_H < ID_Y, leading to over-compression and poor generalization, whereas non-collapsed models typically maintain ID_H > ID_Y. For the non-collapsed models, performance with respect to ID_H depends on the data quantity and noise levels. From these observations, we identify two regimes (over-compressed and under-compressed) that determine when expanding or reducing feature dimensionality improves performance. Our results provide new geometric insights into neural regression and suggest practical strategies for enhancing generalization.

Graph neural networks aim to learn representations for graph-structured data and show impressive performance, particularly in node classification. Recently, many methods have studied the representations of GNNs from the perspective of optimization goals and spectral graph theory. However, the feature space that dominates representation learning has not been systematically studied in graph neural networks. In this paper, we propose to fill this gap by analyzing the feature space of both spatial and spectral models. We decompose graph neural networks into determined feature spaces and trainable weights, providing the convenience of studying the feature space explicitly using matrix space analysis. In particular, we theoretically find that the feature space tends to be linearly correlated due to repeated aggregations. Motivated by these findings, we propose 1) feature subspaces flattening and 2) structural principal components to expand the feature space. Extensive experiments verify the effectiveness of our proposed more comprehensive feature space, with comparable inference time to the baseline, and demonstrate its efficient convergence capability.

In this paper, we study the ideas of composition and decomposition in the context of vector spaces, graphs and matroids. For vector spaces V_{AB}, treated as collection of row vectors, with specified column set Auplus B, we define V_{SP}lrarv V_{PQ}, Scap Q= emptyset, to be the collection of all vectors (f_S,f_Q) such that (f_S,f_P)in V_{SP}, (f_P,f_Q)in V_{PQ}. An analogous operation G_{SP}lrarg G_{PQ}equivd G_{PQ} can be defined in relation to graphs G_{SP}, G_{PQ}, on edge sets Suplus P, Puplus Q, respectively in terms of an overlapping subgraph G_P which gets deleted in the right side graph (see for instance the notion of k-sum oxley). For matroids we define the `linking' M_{SP}lrarm M_{PQ} equivd (M_{SP}vee M_{PQ})times (Suplus Q), denoting the contraction operation by 'times'. In each case, we examine how to minimize the size of the `overlap' set P, without affecting the right side entity. In the case of vector spaces, there is a polynomial time algorithm for achieving the minimum, which we present. Similar ideas work for graphs and for matroids under appropriate conditions. Next we consider the problem of decomposition. Here, in the case of vector spaces, the problem is to decompose V_{SQ} as V_{SP}lrarv V_{PQ}, with minimum size P. We give a polynomial time algorithm for this purpose. In the case of graphs and matroids we give a solution to this problem under certain restrictions.

We introduce a new approach to nonlinear sufficient dimension reduction in cases where both the predictor and the response are distributional data, modeled as members of a metric space. Our key step is to build universal kernels (cc-universal) on the metric spaces, which results in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces for the predictor and response that are rich enough to characterize the conditional independence that determines sufficient dimension reduction. For univariate distributions, we construct the universal kernel using the Wasserstein distance, while for multivariate distributions, we resort to the sliced Wasserstein distance. The sliced Wasserstein distance ensures that the metric space possesses similar topological properties to the Wasserstein space while also offering significant computation benefits. Numerical results based on synthetic data show that our method outperforms possible competing methods. The method is also applied to several data sets, including fertility and mortality data and Calgary temperature data.

Understanding geometric properties of natural language processing models' latent spaces allows the manipulation of these properties for improved performance on downstream tasks. One such property is the amount of data spread in a model's latent space, or how fully the available latent space is being used. In this work, we define data spread and demonstrate that the commonly used measures of data spread, Average Cosine Similarity and a partition function min/max ratio I(V), do not provide reliable metrics to compare the use of latent space across models. We propose and examine eight alternative measures of data spread, all but one of which improve over these current metrics when applied to seven synthetic data distributions. Of our proposed measures, we recommend one principal component-based measure and one entropy-based measure that provide reliable, relative measures of spread and can be used to compare models of different sizes and dimensionalities.

By interpreting the product of the Principal Component Analysis, that is the covariance matrix, as a sequence of nested subspaces naturally coming with weights according to the level of approximation they provide, we are able to embed all d--dimensional Grassmannians into a stratified space of covariance matrices. We observe that Grassmannians constitute the lowest dimensional skeleton of the stratification while it is possible to define a Riemaniann metric on the highest dimensional and dense stratum, such a metric being compatible with the global stratification. With such a Riemaniann metric at hand, it is possible to look for geodesics between two linear subspaces of different dimensions that do not go through higher dimensional linear subspaces as would euclidean geodesics. Building upon the proposed embedding of Grassmannians into the stratified space of covariance matrices, we generalize the concept of varifolds to what we call flagfolds in order to model multi-dimensional shapes.

Currently, high-dimensional data is ubiquitous in data science, which necessitates the development of techniques to decompose and interpret such multidimensional (aka tensor) datasets. Finding a low dimensional representation of the data, that is, its inherent structure, is one of the approaches that can serve to understand the dynamics of low dimensional latent features hidden in the data. Nonnegative RESCAL is one such technique, particularly well suited to analyze self-relational data, such as dynamic networks found in international trade flows. Nonnegative RESCAL computes a low dimensional tensor representation by finding the latent space containing multiple modalities. Estimating the dimensionality of this latent space is crucial for extracting meaningful latent features. Here, to determine the dimensionality of the latent space with nonnegative RESCAL, we propose a latent dimension determination method which is based on clustering of the solutions of multiple realizations of nonnegative RESCAL decompositions. We demonstrate the performance of our model selection method on synthetic data and then we apply our method to decompose a network of international trade flows data from International Monetary Fund and validate the resulting features against empirical facts from economic literature.

Metric space magnitude, an active subject of research in algebraic topology, originally arose in the context of biology, where it was used to represent the effective number of distinct species in an environment. In a more general setting, the magnitude of a metric space is a real number that aims to quantify the effective number of distinct points in the space. The contribution of each point to a metric space's global magnitude, which is encoded by the {\em weighting vector}, captures much of the underlying geometry of the original metric space. Surprisingly, when the metric space is Euclidean, the weighting vector also serves as an effective tool for boundary detection. This allows the weighting vector to serve as the foundation of novel algorithms for classic machine learning tasks such as classification, outlier detection and active learning. We demonstrate, using experiments and comparisons on classic benchmark datasets, the promise of the proposed magnitude and weighting vector-based approaches.

Coecke, Sadrzadeh, and Clark (arXiv:1003.4394v1 [cs.CL]) developed a compositional model of meaning for distributional semantics, in which each word in a sentence has a meaning vector and the distributional meaning of the sentence is a function of the tensor products of the word vectors. Abstractly speaking, this function is the morphism corresponding to the grammatical structure of the sentence in the category of finite dimensional vector spaces. In this paper, we provide a concrete method for implementing this linear meaning map, by constructing a corpus-based vector space for the type of sentence. Our construction method is based on structured vector spaces whereby meaning vectors of all sentences, regardless of their grammatical structure, live in the same vector space. Our proposed sentence space is the tensor product of two noun spaces, in which the basis vectors are pairs of words each augmented with a grammatical role. This enables us to compare meanings of sentences by simply taking the inner product of their vectors.

This paper models the availability of bikes at San Francisco Bay Area Bike Share stations using machine learning algorithms. Random Forest (RF) and Least-Squares Boosting (LSBoost) were used as univariate regression algorithms, and Partial Least-Squares Regression (PLSR) was applied as a multivariate regression algorithm. The univariate models were used to model the number of available bikes at each station. PLSR was applied to reduce the number of required prediction models and reflect the spatial correlation between stations in the network. Results clearly show that univariate models have lower error predictions than the multivariate model. However, the multivariate model results are reasonable for networks with a relatively large number of spatially correlated stations. Results also show that station neighbors and the prediction horizon time are significant predictors. The most effective prediction horizon time that produced the least prediction error was 15 minutes.

Discovering and exploring the underlying structure of multi-instrumental music using learning-based approaches remains an open problem. We extend the recent MusicVAE model to represent multitrack polyphonic measures as vectors in a latent space. Our approach enables several useful operations such as generating plausible measures from scratch, interpolating between measures in a musically meaningful way, and manipulating specific musical attributes. We also introduce chord conditioning, which allows all of these operations to be performed while keeping harmony fixed, and allows chords to be changed while maintaining musical "style". By generating a sequence of measures over a predefined chord progression, our model can produce music with convincing long-term structure. We demonstrate that our latent space model makes it possible to intuitively control and generate musical sequences with rich instrumentation (see https://goo.gl/s2N7dV for generated audio).

Multivariate time series is prevalent in many scientific and industrial domains. Modeling multivariate signals is challenging due to their long-range temporal dependencies and intricate interactions--both direct and indirect. To confront these complexities, we introduce a method of representing multivariate signals as nodes in a graph with edges indicating interdependency between them. Specifically, we leverage graph neural networks (GNN) and attention mechanisms to efficiently learn the underlying relationships within the time series data. Moreover, we suggest employing hierarchical signal decompositions running over the graphs to capture multiple spatial dependencies. The effectiveness of our proposed model is evaluated across various real-world benchmark datasets designed for long-term forecasting tasks. The results consistently showcase the superiority of our model, achieving an average 23\% reduction in mean squared error (MSE) compared to existing models.

Riemannian geometry has been applied to Brain Computer Interface (BCI) for brain signals classification yielding promising results. Studying electroencephalographic (EEG) signals from their associated covariance matrices allows a mitigation of common sources of variability (electronic, electrical, biological) by constructing a representation which is invariant to these perturbations. While working in Euclidean space with covariance matrices is known to be error-prone, one might take advantage of algorithmic advances in information geometry and matrix manifold to implement methods for Symmetric Positive-Definite (SPD) matrices. This paper proposes a comprehensive review of the actual tools of information geometry and how they could be applied on covariance matrices of EEG. In practice, covariance matrices should be estimated, thus a thorough study of all estimators is conducted on real EEG dataset. As a main contribution, this paper proposes an online implementation of a classifier in the Riemannian space and its subsequent assessment in Steady-State Visually Evoked Potential (SSVEP) experimentations.

Many deep generative models are defined as a push-forward of a Gaussian measure by a continuous generator, such as Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) or Variational Auto-Encoders (VAEs). This work explores the latent space of such deep generative models. A key issue with these models is their tendency to output samples outside of the support of the target distribution when learning disconnected distributions. We investigate the relationship between the performance of these models and the geometry of their latent space. Building on recent developments in geometric measure theory, we prove a sufficient condition for optimality in the case where the dimension of the latent space is larger than the number of modes. Through experiments on GANs, we demonstrate the validity of our theoretical results and gain new insights into the latent space geometry of these models. Additionally, we propose a truncation method that enforces a simplicial cluster structure in the latent space and improves the performance of GANs.

Adapting pre-trained foundation models for various downstream tasks has been prevalent in artificial intelligence. Due to the vast number of tasks and high costs, adjusting all parameters becomes unfeasible. To mitigate this, several fine-tuning techniques have been developed to update the pre-trained model weights in a more resource-efficient manner, such as through low-rank adjustments. Yet, almost all of these methods focus on linear weights, neglecting the intricacies of parameter spaces in higher dimensions like 4D. Alternatively, some methods can be adapted for high-dimensional parameter space by compressing changes in the original space into two dimensions and then employing low-rank matrix decomposition. However, these approaches destructs the structural integrity of the involved high-dimensional spaces. To tackle the diversity of dimensional spaces across different foundation models and provide a more precise representation of the changes within these spaces, this paper introduces a generalized parameter-efficient fine-tuning framework, FLoRA, designed for various dimensional parameter space. Specifically, utilizing Tucker decomposition, FLoRA asserts that changes in each dimensional parameter space are based on a low-rank core space which maintains the consistent topological structure with the original space. It then models the changes through this core space alongside corresponding weights to reconstruct alterations in the original space. FLoRA effectively preserves the structural integrity of the change of original N-dimensional parameter space, meanwhile decomposes it via low-rank tensor decomposition. Extensive experiments on computer vision, natural language processing and multi-modal tasks validate FLoRA's effectiveness. Codes are available at https://github.com/SJTU-DeepVisionLab/FLoRA.

In this article, we develop an asymptotic method for constructing confidence regions for the set of all linear subspaces arising from PCA, from which we derive hypothesis tests on this set. Our method is based on the geometry of Riemannian manifolds with which some sets of linear subspaces are endowed.

Modern recording techniques enable neuroscientists to simultaneously study neural activity across large populations of neurons, with capturing predictor-dependent correlations being a fundamental challenge in neuroscience. Moreover, the fact that input covariates often lie in restricted subdomains, according to experimental settings, makes inference even more challenging. To address these challenges, we propose a set of nonparametric mean-covariance regression models for high-dimensional neural activity with restricted inputs. These models reduce the dimensionality of neural responses by employing a lower-dimensional latent factor model, where both factor loadings and latent factors are predictor-dependent, to jointly model mean and covariance across covariates. The smoothness of neural activity across experimental conditions is modeled nonparametrically using two Gaussian processes (GPs), applied to both loading basis and latent factors. Additionally, to account for the covariates lying in restricted subspace, we incorporate graph information into the covariance structure. To flexibly infer the model, we use an MCMC algorithm to sample from posterior distributions. After validating and studying the properties of proposed methods by simulations, we apply them to two neural datasets (local field potential and neural spiking data) to demonstrate the usage of models for continuous and counting observations. Overall, the proposed methods provide a framework to jointly model covariate-dependent mean and covariance in high dimensional neural data, especially when the covariates lie in restricted domains. The framework is general and can be easily adapted to various applications beyond neuroscience.

This paper studies Kernel density estimation for a high-dimensional distribution rho(x). Traditional approaches have focused on the limit of large number of data points n and fixed dimension d. We analyze instead the regime where both the number n of data points y_i and their dimensionality d grow with a fixed ratio alpha=(log n)/d. Our study reveals three distinct statistical regimes for the kernel-based estimate of the density hat rho_h^{D}(x)=1{n h^d}sum_{i=1}^n Kleft(x-y_i{h}right), depending on the bandwidth h: a classical regime for large bandwidth where the Central Limit Theorem (CLT) holds, which is akin to the one found in traditional approaches. Below a certain value of the bandwidth, h_{CLT}(alpha), we find that the CLT breaks down. The statistics of hat rho_h^{D}(x) for a fixed x drawn from rho(x) is given by a heavy-tailed distribution (an alpha-stable distribution). In particular below a value h_G(alpha), we find that hat rho_h^{D}(x) is governed by extreme value statistics: only a few points in the database matter and give the dominant contribution to the density estimator. We provide a detailed analysis for high-dimensional multivariate Gaussian data. We show that the optimal bandwidth threshold based on Kullback-Leibler divergence lies in the new statistical regime identified in this paper. Our findings reveal limitations of classical approaches, show the relevance of these new statistical regimes, and offer new insights for Kernel density estimation in high-dimensional settings.

Magnitude of a finite metric space and the related notion of magnitude functions on metric spaces is an active area of research in algebraic topology. Magnitude originally arose in the context of biology, where it represents the number of effective species in an environment; when applied to a one-parameter family of metric spaces tX with scale parameter t, the magnitude captures much of the underlying geometry of the space. Prior work has mostly focussed on properties of magnitude in a global sense; in this paper we restrict the sets to finite subsets of Euclidean space and investigate its individual components. We give an explicit formula for the corrected inclusion-exclusion principle, and define a quantity associated with each point, called the moment which gives an intrinsic ordering to the points. We exploit this in order to form an algorithm which approximates the convex hull.

Many recently trained neural networks employ large numbers of parameters to achieve good performance. One may intuitively use the number of parameters required as a rough gauge of the difficulty of a problem. But how accurate are such notions? How many parameters are really needed? In this paper we attempt to answer this question by training networks not in their native parameter space, but instead in a smaller, randomly oriented subspace. We slowly increase the dimension of this subspace, note at which dimension solutions first appear, and define this to be the intrinsic dimension of the objective landscape. The approach is simple to implement, computationally tractable, and produces several suggestive conclusions. Many problems have smaller intrinsic dimensions than one might suspect, and the intrinsic dimension for a given dataset varies little across a family of models with vastly different sizes. This latter result has the profound implication that once a parameter space is large enough to solve a problem, extra parameters serve directly to increase the dimensionality of the solution manifold. Intrinsic dimension allows some quantitative comparison of problem difficulty across supervised, reinforcement, and other types of learning where we conclude, for example, that solving the inverted pendulum problem is 100 times easier than classifying digits from MNIST, and playing Atari Pong from pixels is about as hard as classifying CIFAR-10. In addition to providing new cartography of the objective landscapes wandered by parameterized models, the method is a simple technique for constructively obtaining an upper bound on the minimum description length of a solution. A byproduct of this construction is a simple approach for compressing networks, in some cases by more than 100 times.

A ubiquitous feature of data of our era is their extra-large sizes and dimensions. Analyzing such high-dimensional data poses significant challenges, since the feature dimension is often much larger than the sample size. This thesis introduces robust and computationally efficient methods to address several common challenges associated with high-dimensional data. In my first manuscript, I propose a coherent approach to variable screening that accommodates nonlinear associations. I develop a novel variable screening method that transcends traditional linear assumptions by leveraging mutual information, with an intended application in neuroimaging data. This approach allows for accurate identification of important variables by capturing nonlinear as well as linear relationships between the outcome and covariates. Building on this foundation, I develop new optimization methods for sparse estimation using nonconvex penalties in my second manuscript. These methods address notable challenges in current statistical computing practices, facilitating computationally efficient and robust analyses of complex datasets. The proposed method can be applied to a general class of optimization problems. In my third manuscript, I contribute to robust modeling of high-dimensional correlated observations by developing a mixed-effects model based on Tsallis power-law entropy maximization and discussed the theoretical properties of such distribution. This model surpasses the constraints of conventional Gaussian models by accommodating a broader class of distributions with enhanced robustness to outliers. Additionally, I develop a proximal nonlinear conjugate gradient algorithm that accelerates convergence while maintaining numerical stability, along with rigorous statistical properties for the proposed framework.

This paper investigates the generalization of Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to Riemannian manifolds. We first propose a new and general type of family of subspaces in manifolds that we call barycentric subspaces. They are implicitly defined as the locus of points which are weighted means of k+1 reference points. As this definition relies on points and not on tangent vectors, it can also be extended to geodesic spaces which are not Riemannian. For instance, in stratified spaces, it naturally allows principal subspaces that span several strata, which is impossible in previous generalizations of PCA. We show that barycentric subspaces locally define a submanifold of dimension k which generalizes geodesic subspaces.Second, we rephrase PCA in Euclidean spaces as an optimization on flags of linear subspaces (a hierarchy of properly embedded linear subspaces of increasing dimension). We show that the Euclidean PCA minimizes the Accumulated Unexplained Variances by all the subspaces of the flag (AUV). Barycentric subspaces are naturally nested, allowing the construction of hierarchically nested subspaces. Optimizing the AUV criterion to optimally approximate data points with flags of affine spans in Riemannian manifolds lead to a particularly appealing generalization of PCA on manifolds called Barycentric Subspaces Analysis (BSA).

Knowledge graph embedding (KGE) is an increasingly popular technique that aims to represent entities and relations of knowledge graphs into low-dimensional semantic spaces for a wide spectrum of applications such as link prediction, knowledge reasoning and knowledge completion. In this paper, we provide a systematic review of existing KGE techniques based on representation spaces. Particularly, we build a fine-grained classification to categorise the models based on three mathematical perspectives of the representation spaces: (1) Algebraic perspective, (2) Geometric perspective, and (3) Analytical perspective. We introduce the rigorous definitions of fundamental mathematical spaces before diving into KGE models and their mathematical properties. We further discuss different KGE methods over the three categories, as well as summarise how spatial advantages work over different embedding needs. By collating the experimental results from downstream tasks, we also explore the advantages of mathematical space in different scenarios and the reasons behind them. We further state some promising research directions from a representation space perspective, with which we hope to inspire researchers to design their KGE models as well as their related applications with more consideration of their mathematical space properties.

We study the problem of visualizing large-scale and high-dimensional data in a low-dimensional (typically 2D or 3D) space. Much success has been reported recently by techniques that first compute a similarity structure of the data points and then project them into a low-dimensional space with the structure preserved. These two steps suffer from considerable computational costs, preventing the state-of-the-art methods such as the t-SNE from scaling to large-scale and high-dimensional data (e.g., millions of data points and hundreds of dimensions). We propose the LargeVis, a technique that first constructs an accurately approximated K-nearest neighbor graph from the data and then layouts the graph in the low-dimensional space. Comparing to t-SNE, LargeVis significantly reduces the computational cost of the graph construction step and employs a principled probabilistic model for the visualization step, the objective of which can be effectively optimized through asynchronous stochastic gradient descent with a linear time complexity. The whole procedure thus easily scales to millions of high-dimensional data points. Experimental results on real-world data sets demonstrate that the LargeVis outperforms the state-of-the-art methods in both efficiency and effectiveness. The hyper-parameters of LargeVis are also much more stable over different data sets.

Simulations are the best approximation to experimental laboratories in astrophysics and cosmology. However, the complexity, richness, and large size of their outputs severely limit the interpretability of their predictions. We describe a new, unbiased, and machine learning based approach to obtaining useful scientific insights from a broad range of simulations. The method can be used on today's largest simulations and will be essential to solve the extreme data exploration and analysis challenges posed by the Exascale era. Furthermore, this concept is so flexible, that it will also enable explorative access to observed data. Our concept is based on applying nonlinear dimensionality reduction to learn compact representations of the data in a low-dimensional space. The simulation data is projected onto this space for interactive inspection, visual interpretation, sample selection, and local analysis. We present a prototype using a rotational invariant hyperspherical variational convolutional autoencoder, utilizing a power distribution in the latent space, and trained on galaxies from IllustrisTNG simulation. Thereby, we obtain a natural Hubble tuning fork like similarity space that can be visualized interactively on the surface of a sphere by exploiting the power of HiPS tilings in Aladin Lite.

Quantifying the similarity between two mathematical structures or datasets constitutes a particularly interesting and useful operation in several theoretical and applied problems. Aimed at this specific objective, the Jaccard index has been extensively used in the most diverse types of problems, also motivating some respective generalizations. The present work addresses further generalizations of this index, including its modification into a coincidence index capable of accounting also for the level of relative interiority between the two compared entities, as well as respective extensions for sets in continuous vector spaces, the generalization to multiset addition, densities and generic scalar fields, as well as a means to quantify the joint interdependence between two random variables. The also interesting possibility to take into account more than two sets has also been addressed, including the description of an index capable of quantifying the level of chaining between three structures. Several of the described and suggested eneralizations have been illustrated with respect to numeric case examples. It is also posited that these indices can play an important role while analyzing and integrating datasets in modeling approaches and pattern recognition activities, including as a measurement of clusters similarity or separation and as a resource for representing and analyzing complex networks.

Hyperbolic spaces have recently gained momentum in the context of machine learning due to their high capacity and tree-likeliness properties. However, the representational power of hyperbolic geometry is not yet on par with Euclidean geometry, mostly because of the absence of corresponding hyperbolic neural network layers. This makes it hard to use hyperbolic embeddings in downstream tasks. Here, we bridge this gap in a principled manner by combining the formalism of Möbius gyrovector spaces with the Riemannian geometry of the Poincaré model of hyperbolic spaces. As a result, we derive hyperbolic versions of important deep learning tools: multinomial logistic regression, feed-forward and recurrent neural networks such as gated recurrent units. This allows to embed sequential data and perform classification in the hyperbolic space. Empirically, we show that, even if hyperbolic optimization tools are limited, hyperbolic sentence embeddings either outperform or are on par with their Euclidean variants on textual entailment and noisy-prefix recognition tasks.

When solving forecasting problems including multiple time-series features, existing approaches often fall into two extreme categories, depending on whether to utilize inter-feature information: univariate and complete-multivariate models. Unlike univariate cases which ignore the information, complete-multivariate models compute relationships among a complete set of features. However, despite the potential advantage of leveraging the additional information, complete-multivariate models sometimes underperform univariate ones. Therefore, our research aims to explore a middle ground between these two by introducing what we term Partial-Multivariate models where a neural network captures only partial relationships, that is, dependencies within subsets of all features. To this end, we propose PMformer, a Transformer-based partial-multivariate model, with its training algorithm. We demonstrate that PMformer outperforms various univariate and complete-multivariate models, providing a theoretical rationale and empirical analysis for its superiority. Additionally, by proposing an inference technique for PMformer, the forecasting accuracy is further enhanced. Finally, we highlight other advantages of PMformer: efficiency and robustness under missing features.

Generalized Category Discovery (GCD) is an intriguing open-world problem that has garnered increasing attention. Given a dataset that includes both labelled and unlabelled images, GCD aims to categorize all images in the unlabelled subset, regardless of whether they belong to known or unknown classes. In GCD, the common practice typically involves applying a spherical projection operator at the end of the self-supervised pretrained backbone, operating within Euclidean or spherical space. However, both of these spaces have been shown to be suboptimal for encoding samples that possesses hierarchical structures. In contrast, hyperbolic space exhibits exponential volume growth relative to radius, making it inherently strong at capturing the hierarchical structure of samples from both seen and unseen categories. Therefore, we propose to tackle the category discovery challenge in the hyperbolic space. We introduce HypCD, a simple Hyperbolic framework for learning hierarchy-aware representations and classifiers for generalized Category Discovery. HypCD first transforms the Euclidean embedding space of the backbone network into hyperbolic space, facilitating subsequent representation and classification learning by considering both hyperbolic distance and the angle between samples. This approach is particularly helpful for knowledge transfer from known to unknown categories in GCD. We thoroughly evaluate HypCD on public GCD benchmarks, by applying it to various baseline and state-of-the-art methods, consistently achieving significant improvements.

The enduring legacy of Euclidean geometry underpins classical machine learning, which, for decades, has been primarily developed for data lying in Euclidean space. Yet, modern machine learning increasingly encounters richly structured data that is inherently nonEuclidean. This data can exhibit intricate geometric, topological and algebraic structure: from the geometry of the curvature of space-time, to topologically complex interactions between neurons in the brain, to the algebraic transformations describing symmetries of physical systems. Extracting knowledge from such non-Euclidean data necessitates a broader mathematical perspective. Echoing the 19th-century revolutions that gave rise to non-Euclidean geometry, an emerging line of research is redefining modern machine learning with non-Euclidean structures. Its goal: generalizing classical methods to unconventional data types with geometry, topology, and algebra. In this review, we provide an accessible gateway to this fast-growing field and propose a graphical taxonomy that integrates recent advances into an intuitive unified framework. We subsequently extract insights into current challenges and highlight exciting opportunities for future development in this field.

In representation learning, uniformity refers to the uniform feature distribution in the latent space (i.e., unit hypersphere). Previous work has shown that improving uniformity contributes to the learning of under-represented classes. However, most of the previous work focused on classification; the representation space of imbalanced regression remains unexplored. Classification-based methods are not suitable for regression tasks because they cluster features into distinct groups without considering the continuous and ordered nature essential for regression. In a geometric aspect, we uniquely focus on ensuring uniformity in the latent space for imbalanced regression through two key losses: enveloping and homogeneity. The enveloping loss encourages the induced trace to uniformly occupy the surface of a hypersphere, while the homogeneity loss ensures smoothness, with representations evenly spaced at consistent intervals. Our method integrates these geometric principles into the data representations via a Surrogate-driven Representation Learning (SRL) framework. Experiments with real-world regression and operator learning tasks highlight the importance of uniformity in imbalanced regression and validate the efficacy of our geometry-based loss functions.

Sparse autoencoders have recently produced dictionaries of high-dimensional vectors corresponding to the universe of concepts represented by large language models. We find that this concept universe has interesting structure at three levels: 1) The "atomic" small-scale structure contains "crystals" whose faces are parallelograms or trapezoids, generalizing well-known examples such as (man-woman-king-queen). We find that the quality of such parallelograms and associated function vectors improves greatly when projecting out global distractor directions such as word length, which is efficiently done with linear discriminant analysis. 2) The "brain" intermediate-scale structure has significant spatial modularity; for example, math and code features form a "lobe" akin to functional lobes seen in neural fMRI images. We quantify the spatial locality of these lobes with multiple metrics and find that clusters of co-occurring features, at coarse enough scale, also cluster together spatially far more than one would expect if feature geometry were random. 3) The "galaxy" scale large-scale structure of the feature point cloud is not isotropic, but instead has a power law of eigenvalues with steepest slope in middle layers. We also quantify how the clustering entropy depends on the layer.

High-dimensional vector spaces, particularly embedding spaces with dense semantic structure, are often interpreted primarily leveraging solely geometric relationships. In this work, we show that they can also be viewed as spectral energy networks induced by the topology of their underlying feature-space manifold with relevant improvements for downstream tasks. Building on this perspective, we introduce Graph Wiring, a general framework for exploiting feature-space spectral structure, together with Spectral Indexing, its task-specific instantiation for vector search. By coupling geometric similarity with spectral information, the proposed method improves Head-Tail coherence and semantic alignment relative to purely geometric retrieval methods. It further supports adaptive search behavior through tau-modulation, providing the flexibility increasingly required by modern Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) pipelines. We present the complete algorithmic pipeline, establish its theoretical foundation through epiplexity, and evaluate the approach across benchmark and industrial settings using the open-source arrowspace library.

The Brownian sphere is a random metric space, homeomorphic to the two-dimensional sphere, which arises as the universal scaling limit of many types of random planar maps. The direct construction of the Brownian sphere is via a continuous analogue of the Cori--Vauquelin--Schaeffer (CVS) bijection. The CVS bijection maps labeled trees to planar maps, and the continuous version maps Aldous' continuum random tree with Brownian labels (the Brownian snake) to the Brownian sphere. In this work, we describe the inverse of the continuous CVS bijection, by constructing the Brownian snake as a measurable function of the Brownian sphere. Special care is needed to work with the orientation of the Brownian sphere.

Dimensionality reduction techniques are fundamental for analyzing and visualizing high-dimensional data. With established methods like t-SNE and PCA presenting a trade-off between representational power and interpretability. This paper introduces a novel approach that bridges this gap by combining the interpretability of linear methods with the expressiveness of non-linear transformations. The proposed algorithm constructs a non-linear mapping between high-dimensional and low-dimensional spaces through a combination of linear transformations, each weighted by Gaussian functions. This architecture enables complex non-linear transformations while preserving the interpretability advantages of linear methods, as each transformation can be analyzed independently. The resulting model provides both powerful dimensionality reduction and transparent insights into the transformed space. Techniques for interpreting the learned transformations are presented, including methods for identifying suppressed dimensions and how space is expanded and contracted. These tools enable practitioners to understand how the algorithm preserves and modifies geometric relationships during dimensionality reduction. To ensure the practical utility of this algorithm, the creation of user-friendly software packages is emphasized, facilitating its adoption in both academia and industry.

We develop a method to generate predictive regions that cover a multivariate response variable with a user-specified probability. Our work is composed of two components. First, we use a deep generative model to learn a representation of the response that has a unimodal distribution. Existing multiple-output quantile regression approaches are effective in such cases, so we apply them on the learned representation, and then transform the solution to the original space of the response. This process results in a flexible and informative region that can have an arbitrary shape, a property that existing methods lack. Second, we propose an extension of conformal prediction to the multivariate response setting that modifies any method to return sets with a pre-specified coverage level. The desired coverage is theoretically guaranteed in the finite-sample case for any distribution. Experiments conducted on both real and synthetic data show that our method constructs regions that are significantly smaller compared to existing techniques.

Automatic analysis of the enormous sets of images is a critical task in life sciences. This faces many challenges such as: algorithms are highly parameterized, significant human input is intertwined, and lacking a standard meta-visualization approach. This paper proposes an alternative iterative approach for optimizing input parameters, saving time by minimizing the user involvement, and allowing for understanding the workflow of algorithms and discovering new ones. The main focus is on developing an interactive visualization technique that enables users to analyze the relationships between sampled input parameters and corresponding output. This technique is implemented as a prototype called Veni Vidi Vici, or "I came, I saw, I conquered." This strategy is inspired by the mathematical formulas of numbering computable functions and is developed atop ImageJ, a scientific image processing program. A case study is presented to investigate the proposed framework. Finally, the paper explores some potential future issues in the application of the proposed approach in parameter space analysis in visualization.

Albeit worryingly underrated in the recent literature on machine learning in general (and, on deep learning in particular), multivariate density estimation is a fundamental task in many applications, at least implicitly, and still an open issue. With a few exceptions, deep neural networks (DNNs) have seldom been applied to density estimation, mostly due to the unsupervised nature of the estimation task, and (especially) due to the need for constrained training algorithms that ended up realizing proper probabilistic models that satisfy Kolmogorov's axioms. Moreover, in spite of the well-known improvement in terms of modeling capabilities yielded by mixture models over plain single-density statistical estimators, no proper mixtures of multivariate DNN-based component densities have been investigated so far. The paper fills this gap by extending our previous work on Neural Mixture Densities (NMMs) to multivariate DNN mixtures. A maximum-likelihood (ML) algorithm for estimating Deep NMMs (DNMMs) is handed out, which satisfies numerically a combination of hard and soft constraints aimed at ensuring satisfaction of Kolmogorov's axioms. The class of probability density functions that can be modeled to any degree of precision via DNMMs is formally defined. A procedure for the automatic selection of the DNMM architecture, as well as of the hyperparameters for its ML training algorithm, is presented (exploiting the probabilistic nature of the DNMM). Experimental results on univariate and multivariate data are reported on, corroborating the effectiveness of the approach and its superiority to the most popular statistical estimation techniques.

Stacking heterogeneous vision backbones (CNNs, ViTs, and hybrids) is the de facto recipe for accuracy, calibration, and robustness, yet two coupled pathologies limit its returns. Prediction-space multicollinearity ill-conditions the meta-learner's Gram matrix, inflating weight variance and producing brittle solutions on a thin manifold. Calibration collapse compounds constituent miscalibration through naive linear stacking, so adding more models can hurt expected calibration error (ECE). Existing remedies, ridge regularization, greedy selection, model soups, and SWAG address at most one of these issues, and none jointly target conditioning and calibration in heterogeneous prediction pools. We introduce CORE-STACK+, a preconditioning pipeline with four components: (i) a kernelized redundancy filter that removes non-linear inter-model dependencies invisible to Pearson correlation, using Centered Kernel Alignment (CKA) [23]; (ii) a <15K-parameter differentiable meta-feature gate that learns per-sample attention over ensemble statistics; (iii) a spectrum-adaptive Ridge penalty lambda^{star}=lmax(Chat)/SNR(Chat) derived from a Marchenko-Pastur signal-noise decomposition, eliminating nested cross-validation; and (iv) a Laplace-approximate Bayesian blender replacing inverse-RMSE heuristics. We prove a PAC-Bayes excess-risk bound that, for the first time, jointly accounts for prediction-space redundancy and meta-learner capacity. Across six benchmarks, CORE-STACK+ delivers +1.8% top-1 on ImageNet-1K, -4.2 mCE on ImageNet-C, +0.9 mIoU on ADE20K, and +1.3 AP on COCO, while reducing retained models by 35-57% and inference FLOPs by up to 41%. ECE improves 2.1times over deep ensembles without post hoc temperature scaling.

This article studies the change in the prediction accuracy of a response variable when the number of predictors increases, and all variables follow a multivariate normal distribution. Assuming that the correlations between variables are independently drawn, I show that adding variables leads to globally increasing returns to scale when the mean of the correlation distribution is zero. The speed of learning depends positively on the variance of the correlation distribution. I use simulations to study the more complex case of correlation distributions with a non-zero mean and find a pattern of decreasing returns followed by increasing returns to scale - as long as the variance of correlations is not degenerate, in which case globally decreasing returns emerge. I train a collaborative filtering algorithm using the MovieLens 1M dataset to analyze returns from adding variables in a more realistic setting and find globally increasing returns to scale across 2,000 variables. The results suggest significant scale advantages from additional variables in prediction tasks.

The clustering problem, and more generally, latent factor discovery --or latent space inference-- is formulated in terms of the Wasserstein barycenter problem from optimal transport. The objective proposed is the maximization of the variability attributable to class, further characterized as the minimization of the variance of the Wasserstein barycenter. Existing theory, which constrains the transport maps to rigid translations, is extended to affine transformations. The resulting non-parametric clustering algorithms include k-means as a special case and exhibit more robust performance. A continuous version of these algorithms discovers continuous latent variables and generalizes principal curves. The strength of these algorithms is demonstrated by tests on both artificial and real-world data sets.

Hyperbolic embeddings offer excellent quality with few dimensions when embedding hierarchical data structures like synonym or type hierarchies. Given a tree, we give a combinatorial construction that embeds the tree in hyperbolic space with arbitrarily low distortion without using optimization. On WordNet, our combinatorial embedding obtains a mean-average-precision of 0.989 with only two dimensions, while Nickel et al.'s recent construction obtains 0.87 using 200 dimensions. We provide upper and lower bounds that allow us to characterize the precision-dimensionality tradeoff inherent in any hyperbolic embedding. To embed general metric spaces, we propose a hyperbolic generalization of multidimensional scaling (h-MDS). We show how to perform exact recovery of hyperbolic points from distances, provide a perturbation analysis, and give a recovery result that allows us to reduce dimensionality. The h-MDS approach offers consistently low distortion even with few dimensions across several datasets. Finally, we extract lessons from the algorithms and theory above to design a PyTorch-based implementation that can handle incomplete information and is scalable.

Lung cancer is responsible for 21% of cancer deaths in the UK and five-year survival rates are heavily influenced by the stage the cancer was identified at. Recent studies have demonstrated the capability of AI methods for accurate and early diagnosis of lung cancer from routine scans. However, this evidence has not translated into clinical practice with one barrier being a lack of interpretable models. This study investigates the application Variational Autoencoders (VAEs), a type of generative AI model, to lung cancer lesions. Proposed models were trained on lesions extracted from 3D CT scans in the LIDC-IDRI public dataset. Latent vector representations of 2D slices produced by the VAEs were explored through clustering to justify their quality and used in an MLP classifier model for lung cancer diagnosis, the best model achieved state-of-the-art metrics of AUC 0.98 and 93.1% accuracy. Cluster analysis shows the VAE latent space separates the dataset of malignant and benign lesions based on meaningful feature components including tumour size, shape, patient and malignancy class. We also include a comparative analysis of the standard Gaussian VAE (GVAE) and the more recent Dirichlet VAE (DirVAE), which replaces the prior with a Dirichlet distribution to encourage a more explainable latent space with disentangled feature representation. Finally, we demonstrate the potential for latent space traversals corresponding to clinically meaningful feature changes.

Understanding how the brain encodes visual information is a central challenge in neuroscience and machine learning. A promising approach is to reconstruct visual stimuli, essentially images, from functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI) signals. This involves two stages: transforming fMRI signals into a latent space and then using a pretrained generative model to reconstruct images. The reconstruction quality depends on how similar the latent space is to the structure of neural activity and how well the generative model produces images from that space. Yet, it remains unclear which type of latent space best supports this transformation and how it should be organized to represent visual stimuli effectively. We present two key findings. First, fMRI signals are more similar to the text space of a language model than to either a vision based space or a joint text image space. Second, text representations and the generative model should be adapted to capture the compositional nature of visual stimuli, including objects, their detailed attributes, and relationships. Building on these insights, we propose PRISM, a model that Projects fMRI sIgnals into a Structured text space as an interMediate representation for visual stimuli reconstruction. It includes an object centric diffusion module that generates images by composing individual objects to reduce object detection errors, and an attribute relationship search module that automatically identifies key attributes and relationships that best align with the neural activity. Extensive experiments on real world datasets demonstrate that our framework outperforms existing methods, achieving up to an 8% reduction in perceptual loss. These results highlight the importance of using structured text as the intermediate space to bridge fMRI signals and image reconstruction.

We explore the potential of a popular distributional semantics vector space model, word2vec, for capturing meaningful relationships in ecological (complex polyphonic) music. More precisely, the skip-gram version of word2vec is used to model slices of music from a large corpus spanning eight musical genres. In this newly learned vector space, a metric based on cosine distance is able to distinguish between functional chord relationships, as well as harmonic associations in the music. Evidence, based on cosine distance between chord-pair vectors, suggests that an implicit circle-of-fifths exists in the vector space. In addition, a comparison between pieces in different keys reveals that key relationships are represented in word2vec space. These results suggest that the newly learned embedded vector representation does in fact capture tonal and harmonic characteristics of music, without receiving explicit information about the musical content of the constituent slices. In order to investigate whether proximity in the discovered space of embeddings is indicative of `semantically-related' slices, we explore a music generation task, by automatically replacing existing slices from a given piece of music with new slices. We propose an algorithm to find substitute slices based on spatial proximity and the pitch class distribution inferred in the chosen subspace. The results indicate that the size of the subspace used has a significant effect on whether slices belonging to the same key are selected. In sum, the proposed word2vec model is able to learn music-vector embeddings that capture meaningful tonal and harmonic relationships in music, thereby providing a useful tool for exploring musical properties and comparisons across pieces, as a potential input representation for deep learning models, and as a music generation device.

Metric space magnitude, an active field of research in algebraic topology, is a scalar quantity that summarizes the effective number of distinct points that live in a general metric space. The {\em weighting vector} is a closely-related concept that captures, in a nontrivial way, much of the underlying geometry of the original metric space. Recent work has demonstrated that when the metric space is Euclidean, the weighting vector serves as an effective tool for boundary detection. We recast this result and show the weighting vector may be viewed as a solution to a kernelized SVM. As one consequence, we apply this new insight to the task of outlier detection, and we demonstrate performance that is competitive or exceeds performance of state-of-the-art techniques on benchmark data sets. Under mild assumptions, we show the weighting vector, which has computational cost of matrix inversion, can be efficiently approximated in linear time. We show how nearest neighbor methods can approximate solutions to the minimization problems defined by SVMs.

When dealing with electro or magnetoencephalography records, many supervised prediction tasks are solved by working with covariance matrices to summarize the signals. Learning with these matrices requires using Riemanian geometry to account for their structure. In this paper, we propose a new method to deal with distributions of covariance matrices and demonstrate its computational efficiency on M/EEG multivariate time series. More specifically, we define a Sliced-Wasserstein distance between measures of symmetric positive definite matrices that comes with strong theoretical guarantees. Then, we take advantage of its properties and kernel methods to apply this distance to brain-age prediction from MEG data and compare it to state-of-the-art algorithms based on Riemannian geometry. Finally, we show that it is an efficient surrogate to the Wasserstein distance in domain adaptation for Brain Computer Interface applications.

Given a set of K probability densities, we consider the multimarginal generative modeling problem of learning a joint distribution that recovers these densities as marginals. The structure of this joint distribution should identify multi-way correspondences among the prescribed marginals. We formalize an approach to this task within a generalization of the stochastic interpolant framework, leading to efficient learning algorithms built upon dynamical transport of measure. Our generative models are defined by velocity and score fields that can be characterized as the minimizers of simple quadratic objectives, and they are defined on a simplex that generalizes the time variable in the usual dynamical transport framework. The resulting transport on the simplex is influenced by all marginals, and we show that multi-way correspondences can be extracted. The identification of such correspondences has applications to style transfer, algorithmic fairness, and data decorruption. In addition, the multimarginal perspective enables an efficient algorithm for reducing the dynamical transport cost in the ordinary two-marginal setting. We demonstrate these capacities with several numerical examples.

Predictive distributions need to be aggregated when probabilistic forecasts are merged, or when expert opinions expressed in terms of probability distributions are fused. We take a prediction space approach that applies to discrete, mixed discrete-continuous and continuous predictive distributions alike, and study combination formulas for cumulative distribution functions from the perspectives of coherence, probabilistic and conditional calibration, and dispersion. Both linear and non-linear aggregation methods are investigated, including generalized, spread-adjusted and beta-transformed linear pools. The effects and techniques are demonstrated theoretically, in simulation examples, and in case studies on density forecasts for S&P 500 returns and daily maximum temperature at Seattle-Tacoma Airport.

We consider the problem of approximating a function from L^2 by an element of a given m-dimensional space V_m, associated with some feature map varphi, using evaluations of the function at random points x_1,dots,x_n. After recalling some results on optimal weighted least-squares using independent and identically distributed points, we consider weighted least-squares using projection determinantal point processes (DPP) or volume sampling. These distributions introduce dependence between the points that promotes diversity in the selected features varphi(x_i). We first provide a generalized version of volume-rescaled sampling yielding quasi-optimality results in expectation with a number of samples n = O(mlog(m)), that means that the expected L^2 error is bounded by a constant times the best approximation error in L^2. Also, further assuming that the function is in some normed vector space H continuously embedded in L^2, we further prove that the approximation is almost surely bounded by the best approximation error measured in the H-norm. This includes the cases of functions from L^infty or reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces. Finally, we present an alternative strategy consisting in using independent repetitions of projection DPP (or volume sampling), yielding similar error bounds as with i.i.d. or volume sampling, but in practice with a much lower number of samples. Numerical experiments illustrate the performance of the different strategies.

The striking fractal geometry of strange attractors underscores the generative nature of chaos: like probability distributions, chaotic systems can be repeatedly measured to produce arbitrarily-detailed information about the underlying attractor. Chaotic systems thus pose a unique challenge to modern statistical learning techniques, while retaining quantifiable mathematical properties that make them controllable and interpretable as benchmarks. Here, we present a growing database currently comprising 131 known chaotic dynamical systems spanning fields such as astrophysics, climatology, and biochemistry. Each system is paired with precomputed multivariate and univariate time series. Our dataset has comparable scale to existing static time series databases; however, our systems can be re-integrated to produce additional datasets of arbitrary length and granularity. Our dataset is annotated with known mathematical properties of each system, and we perform feature analysis to broadly categorize the diverse dynamics present across the collection. Chaotic systems inherently challenge forecasting models, and across extensive benchmarks we correlate forecasting performance with the degree of chaos present. We also exploit the unique generative properties of our dataset in several proof-of-concept experiments: surrogate transfer learning to improve time series classification, importance sampling to accelerate model training, and benchmarking symbolic regression algorithms.

Matrix manifolds, such as manifolds of Symmetric Positive Definite (SPD) matrices and Grassmann manifolds, appear in many applications. Recently, by applying the theory of gyrogroups and gyrovector spaces that is a powerful framework for studying hyperbolic geometry, some works have attempted to build principled generalizations of Euclidean neural networks on matrix manifolds. However, due to the lack of many concepts in gyrovector spaces for the considered manifolds, e.g., the inner product and gyroangles, techniques and mathematical tools provided by these works are still limited compared to those developed for studying hyperbolic geometry. In this paper, we generalize some notions in gyrovector spaces for SPD and Grassmann manifolds, and propose new models and layers for building neural networks on these manifolds. We show the effectiveness of our approach in two applications, i.e., human action recognition and knowledge graph completion.

Several machine learning models are defined for inputs of any size, such as graphs with different numbers of nodes and point clouds containing varying numbers of points. The universality properties of such any-dimensional models remain poorly understood, as universality is traditionally studied for models accepting inputs of a fixed size, defined on a compact subset of their domain. In sharp contrast, any-dimensional models can be viewed as sequences of functions defined on growing-sized inputs, and it is not clear in which sense they can be universal. We develop a systematic approach to establish any-dimensional universality, by identifying any-dimensional functions with a unique function taking inputs in a suitable infinite-dimensional limit space containing inputs of all finite sizes as well as their limits. Using the symmetries of these inputs and relations between inputs of different sizes, we show that this limit space admits a natural topology with rich families of compact sets on which any-dimensional universality can be established. We illustrate our approach by showing that several existing architectures fail to be universal, and we propose simple modifications that restore universality.

Missing values, irregularly collected samples, and multi-resolution signals commonly occur in multivariate time series data, making predictive tasks difficult. These challenges are especially prevalent in the healthcare domain, where patients' vital signs and electronic records are collected at different frequencies and have occasionally missing information due to the imperfections in equipment or patient circumstances. Researchers have handled each of these issues differently, often handling missing data through mean value imputation and then using sequence models over the multivariate signals while ignoring the different resolution of signals. We propose a unified model named Multi-resolution Flexible Irregular Time series Network (Multi-FIT). The building block for Multi-FIT is the FIT network. The FIT network creates an informative dense representation at each time step using signal information such as last observed value, time difference since the last observed time stamp and overall mean for the signal. Vertical FIT (FIT-V) is a variant of FIT which also models the relationship between different temporal signals while creating the informative dense representations for the signal. The multi-FIT model uses multiple FIT networks for sets of signals with different resolutions, further facilitating the construction of flexible representations. Our model has three main contributions: a.) it does not impute values but rather creates informative representations to provide flexibility to the model for creating task-specific representations b.) it models the relationship between different signals in the form of support signals c.) it models different resolutions in parallel before merging them for the final prediction task. The FIT, FIT-V and Multi-FIT networks improve upon the state-of-the-art models for three predictive tasks, including the forecasting of patient survival.

The "maximum similarity correlation" definition introduced in this study is motivated by the seminal work of Szekely et al on "distance covariance" (Ann. Statist. 2007, 35: 2769-2794; Ann. Appl. Stat. 2009, 3: 1236-1265). Instead of using Euclidean distances "d" as in Szekely et al, we use "similarity", which can be defined as "exp(-d/s)", where the scaling parameter s>0 controls how rapidly the similarity falls off with distance. Scale parameters are chosen by maximizing the similarity correlation. The motivation for using "similarity" originates in spectral clustering theory (see e.g. Ng et al 2001, Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 14: 849-856). We show that a particular form of similarity correlation is asymptotically equivalent to distance correlation for large values of the scale parameter. Furthermore, we extend similarity correlation to coherence between complex valued vectors, including its partitioning into real and imaginary contributions. Several toy examples are used for comparing distance and similarity correlations. For instance, points on a noiseless straight line give distance and similarity correlation values equal to 1; but points on a noiseless circle produces near zero distance correlation (dCorr=0.02) while the similarity correlation is distinctly non zero (sCorr=0.36). In distinction to the distance approach, similarity gives more importance to small distances, which emphasizes the local properties of functional relations. This paper represents a preliminary empirical study, showing that the novel similarity association has some distinct practical advantages over distance based association.For the sake of reproducible research, the software code implementing all methods here (using lazarus free-pascal "www.lazarus.freepascal.org"), including all test data, are freely available at: "sites.google.com/site/pascualmarqui/home/similaritycovariance".

Entropy and its various generalizations are important in many fields, including mathematical statistics, communication theory, physics and computer science, for characterizing the amount of information associated with a probability distribution. In this paper we propose goodness-of-fit statistics for the multivariate Student and multivariate Pearson type II distributions, based on the maximum entropy principle and a class of estimators for Renyi entropy based on nearest neighbour distances. We prove the L2-consistency of these statistics using results on the subadditivity of Euclidean functionals on nearest neighbour graphs, and investigate their rate of convergence and asymptotic distribution using Monte Carlo methods.

A real-world dataset is provided from a pulp-and-paper manufacturing industry. The dataset comes from a multivariate time series process. The data contains a rare event of paper break that commonly occurs in the industry. The data contains sensor readings at regular time-intervals (x's) and the event label (y). The primary purpose of the data is thought to be building a classification model for early prediction of the rare event. However, it can also be used for multivariate time series data exploration and building other supervised and unsupervised models.

We consider estimating the conditional distribution of a multivariate outcome given covariates when its coordinates may be continuous, binary, categorical, ordinal or rankings, and are conditionally dependent on one another. Different statistical methods have been developed for each outcome type, and most of them target a summary of the conditional distribution, such as the mean of each coordinate, rather than the joint distribution of the outcome vector. We develop generalized engression models, a unified nonparametric distributional regression framework for outcomes of any type. The proposed method builds upon engression, a scoring-rule-based deep generative model, and introduces a data-type-specific link function and a stochastic perturbation that smooths the loss, enabling gradient-based training even with discontinuous links. We establish universal representation results for continuous, discrete and mixed outcomes. In simulations and in two applications, 242 species in a community ecology benchmark and a 17-dimensional mixed-type health outcome, the method matches type-specific models on marginal scores, improves on them on the joint distribution, and matches or exceeds purpose-built state-of-the-art joint species distribution models. Software is available in Python.

Neural networks embed the geometric structure of a data manifold lying in a high-dimensional space into latent representations. Ideally, the distribution of the data points in the latent space should depend only on the task, the data, the loss, and other architecture-specific constraints. However, factors such as the random weights initialization, training hyperparameters, or other sources of randomness in the training phase may induce incoherent latent spaces that hinder any form of reuse. Nevertheless, we empirically observe that, under the same data and modeling choices, the angles between the encodings within distinct latent spaces do not change. In this work, we propose the latent similarity between each sample and a fixed set of anchors as an alternative data representation, demonstrating that it can enforce the desired invariances without any additional training. We show how neural architectures can leverage these relative representations to guarantee, in practice, invariance to latent isometries and rescalings, effectively enabling latent space communication: from zero-shot model stitching to latent space comparison between diverse settings. We extensively validate the generalization capability of our approach on different datasets, spanning various modalities (images, text, graphs), tasks (e.g., classification, reconstruction) and architectures (e.g., CNNs, GCNs, transformers).

We propose a goodness-of-fit measure for probability densities modeling observations with varying dimensionality, such as text documents of differing lengths or variable-length sequences. The proposed measure is an instance of the kernel Stein discrepancy (KSD), which has been used to construct goodness-of-fit tests for unnormalized densities. The KSD is defined by its Stein operator: current operators used in testing apply to fixed-dimensional spaces. As our main contribution, we extend the KSD to the variable-dimension setting by identifying appropriate Stein operators, and propose a novel KSD goodness-of-fit test. As with the previous variants, the proposed KSD does not require the density to be normalized, allowing the evaluation of a large class of models. Our test is shown to perform well in practice on discrete sequential data benchmarks.

Ensuring equitable treatment (fairness) across protected attributes (such as gender or ethnicity) is a critical issue in machine learning. Most existing literature focuses on binary classification, but achieving fairness in regression tasks-such as insurance pricing or hiring score assessments-is equally important. Moreover, anti-discrimination laws also apply to continuous attributes, such as age, for which many existing methods are not applicable. In practice, multiple protected attributes can exist simultaneously; however, methods targeting fairness across several attributes often overlook so-called "fairness gerrymandering", thereby ignoring disparities among intersectional subgroups (e.g., African-American women or Hispanic men). In this paper, we propose a distance covariance regularisation framework that mitigates the association between model predictions and protected attributes, in line with the fairness definition of demographic parity, and that captures both linear and nonlinear dependencies. To enhance applicability in the presence of multiple protected attributes, we extend our framework by incorporating two multivariate dependence measures based on distance covariance: the previously proposed joint distance covariance (JdCov) and our novel concatenated distance covariance (CCdCov), which effectively address fairness gerrymandering in both regression and classification tasks involving protected attributes of various types. We discuss and illustrate how to calibrate regularisation strength, including a method based on Jensen-Shannon divergence, which quantifies dissimilarities in prediction distributions across groups. We apply our framework to the COMPAS recidivism dataset and a large motor insurance claims dataset.

Many clustering schemes are defined by optimizing an objective function defined on the partitions of the underlying set of a finite metric space. In this paper, we construct a framework for studying what happens when we instead impose various structural conditions on the clustering schemes, under the general heading of functoriality. Functoriality refers to the idea that one should be able to compare the results of clustering algorithms as one varies the data set, for example by adding points or by applying functions to it. We show that within this framework, one can prove a theorems analogous to one of J. Kleinberg, in which for example one obtains an existence and uniqueness theorem instead of a non-existence result. We obtain a full classification of all clustering schemes satisfying a condition we refer to as excisiveness. The classification can be changed by varying the notion of maps of finite metric spaces. The conditions occur naturally when one considers clustering as the statistical version of the geometric notion of connected components. By varying the degree of functoriality that one requires from the schemes it is possible to construct richer families of clustering schemes that exhibit sensitivity to density.

Principal component analysis (PCA) is a tool to capture factors that explain variation in data. Across domains, data are now collected across multiple contexts (for example, individuals with different diseases, cells of different types, or words across texts). While the factors explaining variation in data are undoubtedly shared across subsets of contexts, no tools currently exist to systematically recover such factors. We develop multi-context principal component analysis (MCPCA), a theoretical and algorithmic framework that decomposes data into factors shared across subsets of contexts. Applied to gene expression, MCPCA reveals axes of variation shared across subsets of cancer types and an axis whose variability in tumor cells, but not mean, is associated with lung cancer progression. Applied to contextualized word embeddings from language models, MCPCA maps stages of a debate on human nature, revealing a discussion between science and fiction over decades. These axes are not found by combining data across contexts or by restricting to individual contexts. MCPCA is a principled generalization of PCA to address the challenge of understanding factors underlying data across contexts.

Topological data analysis (TDA) is an area of data science that focuses on using invariants from algebraic topology to provide multiscale shape descriptors for geometric data sets such as point clouds. One of the most important such descriptors is {\em persistent homology}, which encodes the change in shape as a filtration parameter changes; a typical parameter is the feature scale. For many data sets, it is useful to simultaneously vary multiple filtration parameters, for example feature scale and density. While the theoretical properties of single parameter persistent homology are well understood, less is known about the multiparameter case. In particular, a central question is the problem of representing multiparameter persistent homology by elements of a vector space for integration with standard machine learning algorithms. Existing approaches to this problem either ignore most of the multiparameter information to reduce to the one-parameter case or are heuristic and potentially unstable in the face of noise. In this article, we introduce a new general representation framework that leverages recent results on {\em decompositions} of multiparameter persistent homology. This framework is rich in information, fast to compute, and encompasses previous approaches. Moreover, we establish theoretical stability guarantees under this framework as well as efficient algorithms for practical computation, making this framework an applicable and versatile tool for analyzing geometric and point cloud data. We validate our stability results and algorithms with numerical experiments that demonstrate statistical convergence, prediction accuracy, and fast running times on several real data sets.

Standard methods for detecting discontinuities in conditional means are not applicable to outcomes that are complex, non-Euclidean objects like distributions, networks, or covariance matrices. This article develops a nonparametric test for jumps in conditional means when outcomes lie in a non-Euclidean metric space. Using local Fr\'echet regressionx2014which generalizes standard regression to metric-space valued datax2014the method estimates a mean path on either side of a candidate cutoff, extending existing k-sample tests to a flexible regression setting. Key theoretical contributions include a central limit theorem for the local estimator of the conditional Fr\'echet variance and the asymptotic validity and consistency of the proposed test. Simulations confirm nominal size control and robust power in finite samples. Two applications demonstrate the method's value by revealing effects invisible to scalar-based tests. First, I detect a sharp change in work-from-home compositions at Washington State's income threshold for non-compete enforceability during COVID-19, highlighting remote work's role as a bargaining margin. Second, I find that countries restructure their input-output networks after losing preferential US trade access. These findings underscore that analyzing regression functions within their native metric spaces can reveal structural discontinuities that scalar summaries would miss.

The manifold hypothesis, which assumes that data lies on or close to an unknown manifold of low intrinsic dimension, is a staple of modern machine learning research. However, recent work has shown that real-world data exhibits distinct non-manifold structures, i.e. singularities, that can lead to erroneous findings. Detecting such singularities is therefore crucial as a precursor to interpolation and inference tasks. We address this issue by developing a topological framework that (i) quantifies the local intrinsic dimension, and (ii) yields a Euclidicity score for assessing the 'manifoldness' of a point along multiple scales. Our approach identifies singularities of complex spaces, while also capturing singular structures and local geometric complexity in image data.

Unsupervised learning of probabilistic models is a central yet challenging problem in machine learning. Specifically, designing models with tractable learning, sampling, inference and evaluation is crucial in solving this task. We extend the space of such models using real-valued non-volume preserving (real NVP) transformations, a set of powerful invertible and learnable transformations, resulting in an unsupervised learning algorithm with exact log-likelihood computation, exact sampling, exact inference of latent variables, and an interpretable latent space. We demonstrate its ability to model natural images on four datasets through sampling, log-likelihood evaluation and latent variable manipulations.

We consider the problem of simultaneously clustering and learning a linear representation of data lying close to a union of low-dimensional manifolds, a fundamental task in machine learning and computer vision. When the manifolds are assumed to be linear subspaces, this reduces to the classical problem of subspace clustering, which has been studied extensively over the past two decades. Unfortunately, many real-world datasets such as natural images can not be well approximated by linear subspaces. On the other hand, numerous works have attempted to learn an appropriate transformation of the data, such that data is mapped from a union of general non-linear manifolds to a union of linear subspaces (with points from the same manifold being mapped to the same subspace). However, many existing works have limitations such as assuming knowledge of the membership of samples to clusters, requiring high sampling density, or being shown theoretically to learn trivial representations. In this paper, we propose to optimize the Maximal Coding Rate Reduction metric with respect to both the data representation and a novel doubly stochastic cluster membership, inspired by state-of-the-art subspace clustering results. We give a parameterization of such a representation and membership, allowing efficient mini-batching and one-shot initialization. Experiments on CIFAR-10, -20, -100, and TinyImageNet-200 datasets show that the proposed method is much more accurate and scalable than state-of-the-art deep clustering methods, and further learns a latent linear representation of the data.

Learning in weight spaces, where neural networks process the weights of other deep neural networks, has emerged as a promising research direction with applications in various fields, from analyzing and editing neural fields and implicit neural representations, to network pruning and quantization. Recent works designed architectures for effective learning in that space, which takes into account its unique, permutation-equivariant, structure. Unfortunately, so far these architectures suffer from severe overfitting and were shown to benefit from large datasets. This poses a significant challenge because generating data for this learning setup is laborious and time-consuming since each data sample is a full set of network weights that has to be trained. In this paper, we address this difficulty by investigating data augmentations for weight spaces, a set of techniques that enable generating new data examples on the fly without having to train additional input weight space elements. We first review several recently proposed data augmentation schemes %that were proposed recently and divide them into categories. We then introduce a novel augmentation scheme based on the Mixup method. We evaluate the performance of these techniques on existing benchmarks as well as new benchmarks we generate, which can be valuable for future studies.

Unsupervised learning with functional data is an emerging paradigm of machine learning research with applications to computer vision, climate modeling and physical systems. A natural way of modeling functional data is by learning operators between infinite dimensional spaces, leading to discretization invariant representations that scale independently of the sample grid resolution. Here we present Variational Autoencoding Neural Operators (VANO), a general strategy for making a large class of operator learning architectures act as variational autoencoders. For this purpose, we provide a novel rigorous mathematical formulation of the variational objective in function spaces for training. VANO first maps an input function to a distribution over a latent space using a parametric encoder and then decodes a sample from the latent distribution to reconstruct the input, as in classic variational autoencoders. We test VANO with different model set-ups and architecture choices for a variety of benchmarks. We start from a simple Gaussian random field where we can analytically track what the model learns and progressively transition to more challenging benchmarks including modeling phase separation in Cahn-Hilliard systems and real world satellite data for measuring Earth surface deformation.

We study the problem of learning generative models for discrete sequences in a continuous embedding space. Whereas prior approaches typically operate in Euclidean space or on the probability simplex, we instead work on the sphere mathbb S^{d-1}. There the von Mises-Fisher (vMF) distribution induces a natural noise process and admits a closed-form conditional score. The conditional velocity is in general intractable. Exploiting the radial symmetry of the vMF density we reduce the continuity equation on mathbb S^{d-1} to a scalar ODE in the cosine similarity, whose unique bounded solution determines the velocity. The marginal velocity and marginal score on (mathbb S^{d-1})^L both decompose into posterior-weighted tangent sums that differ only by per-token scalar weights. This gives access to both ODE and predictor-corrector (PC) sampling. The posterior is the only learned object, trained by a cross-entropy loss. Experiments compare the vMF path against geodesic and Euclidean alternatives. The combination of vMF and PC sampling significantly improves results on Sudoku and language modeling.

Riemannian diffusion models draw inspiration from standard Euclidean space diffusion models to learn distributions on general manifolds. Unfortunately, the additional geometric complexity renders the diffusion transition term inexpressible in closed form, so prior methods resort to imprecise approximations of the score matching training objective that degrade performance and preclude applications in high dimensions. In this work, we reexamine these approximations and propose several practical improvements. Our key observation is that most relevant manifolds are symmetric spaces, which are much more amenable to computation. By leveraging and combining various ans\"{a}tze, we can quickly compute relevant quantities to high precision. On low dimensional datasets, our correction produces a noticeable improvement, allowing diffusion to compete with other methods. Additionally, we show that our method enables us to scale to high dimensional tasks on nontrivial manifolds. In particular, we model QCD densities on SU(n) lattices and contrastively learned embeddings on high dimensional hyperspheres.

The development of data-dependent heuristics and representations for biological sequences that reflect their evolutionary distance is critical for large-scale biological research. However, popular machine learning approaches, based on continuous Euclidean spaces, have struggled with the discrete combinatorial formulation of the edit distance that models evolution and the hierarchical relationship that characterises real-world datasets. We present Neural Distance Embeddings (NeuroSEED), a general framework to embed sequences in geometric vector spaces, and illustrate the effectiveness of the hyperbolic space that captures the hierarchical structure and provides an average 22% reduction in embedding RMSE against the best competing geometry. The capacity of the framework and the significance of these improvements are then demonstrated devising supervised and unsupervised NeuroSEED approaches to multiple core tasks in bioinformatics. Benchmarked with common baselines, the proposed approaches display significant accuracy and/or runtime improvements on real-world datasets. As an example for hierarchical clustering, the proposed pretrained and from-scratch methods match the quality of competing baselines with 30x and 15x runtime reduction, respectively.

Graph measures that express closeness or distance between nodes can be employed for graph nodes clustering using metric clustering algorithms. There are numerous measures applicable to this task, and which one performs better is an open question. We study the performance of 25 graph measures on generated graphs with different parameters. While usually measure comparisons are limited to general measure ranking on a particular dataset, we aim to explore the performance of various measures depending on graph features. Using an LFR graph generator, we create a dataset of 11780 graphs covering the whole LFR parameter space. For each graph, we assess the quality of clustering with k-means algorithm for each considered measure. Based on this, we determine the best measure for each area of the parameter space. We find that the parameter space consists of distinct zones where one particular measure is the best. We analyze the geometry of the resulting zones and describe it with simple criteria. Given particular graph parameters, this allows us to recommend a particular measure to use for clustering.

Objective: Electroencephalography signals are recorded as a multidimensional dataset. We propose a new framework based on the augmented covariance extracted from an autoregressive model to improve motor imagery classification. Methods: From the autoregressive model can be derived the Yule-Walker equations, which show the emergence of a symmetric positive definite matrix: the augmented covariance matrix. The state-of the art for classifying covariance matrices is based on Riemannian Geometry. A fairly natural idea is therefore to extend the standard approach using these augmented covariance matrices. The methodology for creating the augmented covariance matrix shows a natural connection with the delay embedding theorem proposed by Takens for dynamical systems. Such an embedding method is based on the knowledge of two parameters: the delay and the embedding dimension, respectively related to the lag and the order of the autoregressive model. This approach provides new methods to compute the hyper-parameters in addition to standard grid search. Results: The augmented covariance matrix performed noticeably better than any state-of-the-art methods. We will test our approach on several datasets and several subjects using the MOABB framework, using both within-session and cross-session evaluation. Conclusion: The improvement in results is due to the fact that the augmented covariance matrix incorporates not only spatial but also temporal information, incorporating nonlinear components of the signal through an embedding procedure, which allows the leveraging of dynamical systems algorithms. Significance: These results extend the concepts and the results of the Riemannian distance based classification algorithm.

The recent success of distributed word representations has led to an increased interest in analyzing the properties of their spatial distribution. Several studies have suggested that contextualized word embedding models do not isotropically project tokens into vector space. However, current methods designed to measure isotropy, such as average random cosine similarity and the partition score, have not been thoroughly analyzed and are not appropriate for measuring isotropy. We propose IsoScore: a novel tool that quantifies the degree to which a point cloud uniformly utilizes the ambient vector space. Using rigorously designed tests, we demonstrate that IsoScore is the only tool available in the literature that accurately measures how uniformly distributed variance is across dimensions in vector space. Additionally, we use IsoScore to challenge a number of recent conclusions in the NLP literature that have been derived using brittle metrics of isotropy. We caution future studies from using existing tools to measure isotropy in contextualized embedding space as resulting conclusions will be misleading or altogether inaccurate.

We tackle the problem disentangling the latent space of an autoencoder in order to separate labelled attribute information from other characteristic information. This then allows us to change selected attributes while preserving other information. Our method, matrix subspace projection, is much simpler than previous approaches to latent space factorisation, for example not requiring multiple discriminators or a careful weighting among their loss functions. Furthermore our new model can be applied to autoencoders as a plugin, and works across diverse domains such as images or text. We demonstrate the utility of our method for attribute manipulation in autoencoders trained across varied domains, using both human evaluation and automated methods. The quality of generation of our new model (e.g. reconstruction, conditional generation) is highly competitive to a number of strong baselines.

Two geometric spaces are in the same topological class if they are related by certain geometric deformations. We propose machine learning methods that automate learning of topological invariance and apply it in the context of knot theory, where two knots are equivalent if they are related by ambient space isotopy. Specifically, given only the knot and no information about its topological invariants, we employ contrastive and generative machine learning techniques to map different representatives of the same knot class to the same point in an embedding vector space. An auto-regressive decoder Transformer network can then generate new representatives from the same knot class. We also describe a student-teacher setup that we use to interpret which known knot invariants are learned by the neural networks to compute the embeddings, and observe a strong correlation with the Goeritz matrix in all setups that we tested. We also develop an approach to resolving the Jones Unknot Conjecture by exploring the vicinity of the embedding space of the Jones polynomial near the locus where the unknots cluster, which we use to generate braid words with simple Jones polynomials.

A collection of robust Mahalanobis distances for multivariate outlier detection is proposed, based on the notion of shrinkage. Robust intensity and scaling factors are optimally estimated to define the shrinkage. Some properties are investigated, such as affine equivariance and breakdown value. The performance of the proposal is illustrated through the comparison to other techniques from the literature, in a simulation study and with a real dataset. The behavior when the underlying distribution is heavy-tailed or skewed, shows the appropriateness of the method when we deviate from the common assumption of normality. The resulting high correct detection rates and low false detection rates in the vast majority of cases, as well as the significantly smaller computation time shows the advantages of our proposal.

We present Manifold Diffusion Fields (MDF), an approach to learn generative models of continuous functions defined over Riemannian manifolds. Leveraging insights from spectral geometry analysis, we define an intrinsic coordinate system on the manifold via the eigen-functions of the Laplace-Beltrami Operator. MDF represents functions using an explicit parametrization formed by a set of multiple input-output pairs. Our approach allows to sample continuous functions on manifolds and is invariant with respect to rigid and isometric transformations of the manifold. Empirical results on several datasets and manifolds show that MDF can capture distributions of such functions with better diversity and fidelity than previous approaches.

Linear structural equation models are multivariate statistical models encoded by mixed graphs. In particular, the set of covariance matrices for distributions belonging to a linear structural equation model for a fixed mixed graph G=(V, D,B) is parameterized by a rational function with parameters for each vertex and edge in G. This rational parametrization naturally allows for the study of these models from an algebraic and combinatorial point of view. Indeed, this point of view has led to a collection of results in the literature, mainly focusing on questions related to identifiability and determining relationships between covariances (i.e., finding polynomials in the Gaussian vanishing ideal). So far, a large proportion of these results has focused on the case when D, the directed part of the mixed graph G, is acyclic. This is due to the fact that in the acyclic case, the parametrization becomes polynomial and there is a description of the entries of the covariance matrices in terms of a finite sum. We move beyond the acyclic case and give a closed form expression for the entries of the covariance matrices in terms of the one-connections in a graph obtained from D through some small operations. This closed form expression then allows us to show that if G is simple, then the parametrization map is generically finite-to-one. Finally, having a closed form expression for the covariance matrices allows for the development of an algorithm for systematically exploring possible polynomials in the Gaussian vanishing ideal.

This paper presents a new, provably-convergent algorithm for computing the flag-mean and flag-median of a set of points on a flag manifold under the chordal metric. The flag manifold is a mathematical space consisting of flags, which are sequences of nested subspaces of a vector space that increase in dimension. The flag manifold is a superset of a wide range of known matrix spaces, including Stiefel and Grassmanians, making it a general object that is useful in a wide variety computer vision problems. To tackle the challenge of computing first order flag statistics, we first transform the problem into one that involves auxiliary variables constrained to the Stiefel manifold. The Stiefel manifold is a space of orthogonal frames, and leveraging the numerical stability and efficiency of Stiefel-manifold optimization enables us to compute the flag-mean effectively. Through a series of experiments, we show the competence of our method in Grassmann and rotation averaging, as well as principal component analysis. We release our source code under https://github.com/nmank/FlagAveraging.