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Jun 4

Opinion Dynamics Models for Sentiment Evolution in Weibo Blogs

Online social media platforms enable influencers to distribute content and quickly capture audience reactions, significantly shaping their promotional strategies and advertising agreements. Understanding how sentiment dynamics and emotional contagion unfold among followers is vital for influencers and marketers, as these processes shape engagement, brand perception, and purchasing behavior. While sentiment analysis tools effectively track sentiment fluctuations, dynamical models explaining their evolution remain limited, often neglecting network structures and interactions both among blogs and between their topic-focused follower groups. In this study, we tracked influential tech-focused Weibo bloggers over six months, quantifying follower sentiment from text-mined feedback. By treating each blogger's audience as a single "macro-agent", we find that sentiment trajectories follow the principle of iterative averaging -- a foundational mechanism in many dynamical models of opinion formation, a theoretical framework at the intersection of social network analysis and dynamical systems theory. The sentiment evolution aligns closely with opinion-dynamics models, particularly modified versions of the classical French-DeGroot model that incorporate delayed perception and distinguish between expressed and private opinions. The inferred influence structures reveal interdependencies among blogs that may arise from homophily, whereby emotionally similar users subscribe to the same blogs and collectively shape the shared sentiment expressed within these communities.

  • 3 authors
·
Nov 18, 2025

Controlling Long-Horizon Behavior in Language Model Agents with Explicit State Dynamics

Large language model (LLM) agents often exhibit abrupt shifts in tone and persona during extended interaction, reflecting the absence of explicit temporal structure governing agent-level state. While prior work emphasizes turn-local sentiment or static emotion classification, the role of explicit affective dynamics in shaping long-horizon agent behavior remains underexplored. This work investigates whether imposing dynamical structure on an external affective state can induce temporal coherence and controlled recovery in multi-turn dialogue. We introduce an agent-level affective subsystem that maintains a continuous Valence-Arousal-Dominance (VAD) state external to the language model and governed by first- and second-order update rules. Instantaneous affective signals are extracted using a fixed, memoryless estimator and integrated over time via exponential smoothing or momentum-based dynamics. The resulting affective state is injected back into generation without modifying model parameters. Using a fixed 25-turn dialogue protocol, we compare stateless, first-order, and second-order affective dynamics. Stateless agents fail to exhibit coherent trajectories or recovery, while state persistence enables delayed responses and reliable recovery. Second-order dynamics introduce affective inertia and hysteresis that increase with momentum, revealing a trade-off between stability and responsiveness.

  • 1 authors
·
Jan 22

The Persuasive Power of Large Language Models

The increasing capability of Large Language Models to act as human-like social agents raises two important questions in the area of opinion dynamics. First, whether these agents can generate effective arguments that could be injected into the online discourse to steer the public opinion. Second, whether artificial agents can interact with each other to reproduce dynamics of persuasion typical of human social systems, opening up opportunities for studying synthetic social systems as faithful proxies for opinion dynamics in human populations. To address these questions, we designed a synthetic persuasion dialogue scenario on the topic of climate change, where a 'convincer' agent generates a persuasive argument for a 'skeptic' agent, who subsequently assesses whether the argument changed its internal opinion state. Different types of arguments were generated to incorporate different linguistic dimensions underpinning psycho-linguistic theories of opinion change. We then asked human judges to evaluate the persuasiveness of machine-generated arguments. Arguments that included factual knowledge, markers of trust, expressions of support, and conveyed status were deemed most effective according to both humans and agents, with humans reporting a marked preference for knowledge-based arguments. Our experimental framework lays the groundwork for future in-silico studies of opinion dynamics, and our findings suggest that artificial agents have the potential of playing an important role in collective processes of opinion formation in online social media.

  • 5 authors
·
Dec 24, 2023

Exact solutions to the nonlinear dynamics of learning in deep linear neural networks

Despite the widespread practical success of deep learning methods, our theoretical understanding of the dynamics of learning in deep neural networks remains quite sparse. We attempt to bridge the gap between the theory and practice of deep learning by systematically analyzing learning dynamics for the restricted case of deep linear neural networks. Despite the linearity of their input-output map, such networks have nonlinear gradient descent dynamics on weights that change with the addition of each new hidden layer. We show that deep linear networks exhibit nonlinear learning phenomena similar to those seen in simulations of nonlinear networks, including long plateaus followed by rapid transitions to lower error solutions, and faster convergence from greedy unsupervised pretraining initial conditions than from random initial conditions. We provide an analytical description of these phenomena by finding new exact solutions to the nonlinear dynamics of deep learning. Our theoretical analysis also reveals the surprising finding that as the depth of a network approaches infinity, learning speed can nevertheless remain finite: for a special class of initial conditions on the weights, very deep networks incur only a finite, depth independent, delay in learning speed relative to shallow networks. We show that, under certain conditions on the training data, unsupervised pretraining can find this special class of initial conditions, while scaled random Gaussian initializations cannot. We further exhibit a new class of random orthogonal initial conditions on weights that, like unsupervised pre-training, enjoys depth independent learning times. We further show that these initial conditions also lead to faithful propagation of gradients even in deep nonlinear networks, as long as they operate in a special regime known as the edge of chaos.

  • 3 authors
·
Dec 20, 2013

POSIM: A Multi-Agent Simulation Framework for Social Media Public Opinion Evolution and Governance

Modeling social media public opinion evolution is essential for governance decision-making. Traditional epidemic models and rule-based agent-based models (ABMs) fail to capture the cognitive processes and adaptive behaviors of real users. Recent large language model (LLM)-based social simulations can reproduce group-level phenomena like polarization and conformity, yet remain unable to recreate the irrational interactions and multi-phase dynamics of real public opinion events. We present POSIM (Public Opinion Simulator), a multi-agent simulation framework for social media public opinion evolution and governance. POSIM integrates LLM-driven agents with a Belief--Desire--Intention (BDI) cognitive architecture that accounts for irrational factors, places them in a virtual social media environment with social networks and recommendation mechanisms, and drives temporal dynamics through a Hawkes point process engine that captures the co-evolution of agents and the environment across event phases. To validate the framework, we collect real-world public opinion datasets from the Weibo platform covering the full interaction chain of users. Experiments show that POSIM successfully reproduces key characteristics of public opinion evolution from individual mechanisms to collective phenomena, and its effectiveness is further supported by multiple statistical metrics. Building on POSIM, governance-oriented guidance and intervention experiments uncover a counterintuitive empathy paradox: empathetic guidance deepens negative sentiment instead of easing it under certain conditions, offering new insights for governance strategy design. These results demonstrate that the proposed framework can fully serve as a computational experimentation platform for proactive strategy evaluation and evidence-based governance. All source code is available at https://github.com/DeepCogLab/posim/.

  • 8 authors
·
Mar 24

DEBATE: A Large-Scale Benchmark for Role-Playing LLM Agents in Multi-Agent, Long-Form Debates

Accurately modeling opinion change through social interactions is crucial for addressing issues like misinformation and polarization. While role-playing large language models (LLMs) offer a promising way to simulate human-like interactions, existing research shows that single-agent alignment does not guarantee authentic multi-agent group dynamics. Current LLM role-play setups often produce unnatural dynamics (e.g., premature convergence), without an empirical benchmark to measure authentic human opinion trajectories. To bridge this gap, we introduce DEBATE, the first large-scale empirical benchmark explicitly designed to evaluate the authenticity of the interaction between multi-agent role-playing LLMs. DEBATE contains 29,417 messages from multi-round debate conversations among over 2,792 U.S.-based participants discussing 107 controversial topics, capturing both publicly-expressed messages and privately-reported opinions. Using DEBATE, we systematically evaluate and identify critical discrepancies between simulated and authentic group dynamics. We further demonstrate DEBATE's utility for aligning LLMs with human behavior through supervised fine-tuning, achieving improvements in surface-level metrics (e.g., ROUGE-L and message length) while highlighting limitations in deeper semantic alignment (e.g., semantic similarity). Our findings highlight both the potential and current limitations of role-playing LLM agents for realistically simulating human-like social dynamics.

  • 11 authors
·
Oct 28, 2025

AI Approaches to Qualitative and Quantitative News Analytics on NATO Unity

The paper considers the use of GPT models with retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) for qualitative and quantitative analytics on NATO sentiments, NATO unity and NATO Article 5 trust opinion scores in different web sources: news sites found via Google Search API, Youtube videos with comments, and Reddit discussions. A RAG approach using GPT-4.1 model was applied to analyse news where NATO related topics were discussed. Two levels of RAG analytics were used: on the first level, the GPT model generates qualitative news summaries and quantitative opinion scores using zero-shot prompts; on the second level, the GPT model generates the summary of news summaries. Quantitative news opinion scores generated by the GPT model were analysed using Bayesian regression to get trend lines. The distributions found for the regression parameters make it possible to analyse an uncertainty in specified news opinion score trends. Obtained results show a downward trend for analysed scores of opinion related to NATO unity. This approach does not aim to conduct real political analysis; rather, it consider AI based approaches which can be used for further analytics as a part of a complex analytical approach. The obtained results demonstrate that the use of GPT models for news analysis can give informative qualitative and quantitative analytics, providing important insights. The dynamic model based on neural ordinary differential equations was considered for modelling public opinions. This approach makes it possible to analyse different scenarios for evolving public opinions.

  • 1 authors
·
May 8, 2025

From Skepticism to Acceptance: Simulating the Attitude Dynamics Toward Fake News

In the digital era, the rapid propagation of fake news and rumors via social networks brings notable societal challenges and impacts public opinion regulation. Traditional fake news modeling typically forecasts the general popularity trends of different groups or numerically represents opinions shift. However, these methods often oversimplify real-world complexities and overlook the rich semantic information of news text. The advent of large language models (LLMs) provides the possibility of modeling subtle dynamics of opinion. Consequently, in this work, we introduce a Fake news Propagation Simulation framework (FPS) based on LLM, which studies the trends and control of fake news propagation in detail. Specifically, each agent in the simulation represents an individual with a distinct personality. They are equipped with both short-term and long-term memory, as well as a reflective mechanism to mimic human-like thinking. Every day, they engage in random opinion exchanges, reflect on their thinking, and update their opinions. Our simulation results uncover patterns in fake news propagation related to topic relevance, and individual traits, aligning with real-world observations. Additionally, we evaluate various intervention strategies and demonstrate that early and appropriately frequent interventions strike a balance between governance cost and effectiveness, offering valuable insights for practical applications. Our study underscores the significant utility and potential of LLMs in combating fake news.

  • 6 authors
·
Mar 14, 2024

DyMixOp: Guiding Neural Operator Design for PDEs from a Complex Dynamics Perspective with Local-Global-Mixing

A primary challenge in using neural networks to approximate nonlinear dynamical systems governed by partial differential equations (PDEs) is transforming these systems into a suitable format, especially when dealing with non-linearizable dynamics or the need for infinite-dimensional spaces for linearization. This paper introduces DyMixOp, a novel neural operator framework for PDEs that integrates insights from complex dynamical systems to address this challenge. Grounded in inertial manifold theory, DyMixOp transforms infinite-dimensional nonlinear PDE dynamics into a finite-dimensional latent space, establishing a structured foundation that maintains essential nonlinear interactions and enhances physical interpretability. A key innovation is the Local-Global-Mixing (LGM) transformation, inspired by convection dynamics in turbulence. This transformation effectively captures both fine-scale details and nonlinear interactions, while mitigating spectral bias commonly found in existing neural operators. The framework is further strengthened by a dynamics-informed architecture that connects multiple LGM layers to approximate linear and nonlinear dynamics, reflecting the temporal evolution of dynamical systems. Experimental results across diverse PDE benchmarks demonstrate that DyMixOp achieves state-of-the-art performance, significantly reducing prediction errors, particularly in convection-dominated scenarios reaching up to 86.7\%, while maintaining computational efficiency and scalability.

  • 3 authors
·
Aug 18, 2025

OASIS: Open Agent Social Interaction Simulations with One Million Agents

There has been a growing interest in enhancing rule-based agent-based models (ABMs) for social media platforms (i.e., X, Reddit) with more realistic large language model (LLM) agents, thereby allowing for a more nuanced study of complex systems. As a result, several LLM-based ABMs have been proposed in the past year. While they hold promise, each simulator is specifically designed to study a particular scenario, making it time-consuming and resource-intensive to explore other phenomena using the same ABM. Additionally, these models simulate only a limited number of agents, whereas real-world social media platforms involve millions of users. To this end, we propose OASIS, a generalizable and scalable social media simulator. OASIS is designed based on real-world social media platforms, incorporating dynamically updated environments (i.e., dynamic social networks and post information), diverse action spaces (i.e., following, commenting), and recommendation systems (i.e., interest-based and hot-score-based). Additionally, OASIS supports large-scale user simulations, capable of modeling up to one million users. With these features, OASIS can be easily extended to different social media platforms to study large-scale group phenomena and behaviors. We replicate various social phenomena, including information spreading, group polarization, and herd effects across X and Reddit platforms. Moreover, we provide observations of social phenomena at different agent group scales. We observe that the larger agent group scale leads to more enhanced group dynamics and more diverse and helpful agents' opinions. These findings demonstrate OASIS's potential as a powerful tool for studying complex systems in digital environments.

  • 23 authors
·
Nov 18, 2024

Almost-Linear RNNs Yield Highly Interpretable Symbolic Codes in Dynamical Systems Reconstruction

Dynamical systems (DS) theory is fundamental for many areas of science and engineering. It can provide deep insights into the behavior of systems evolving in time, as typically described by differential or recursive equations. A common approach to facilitate mathematical tractability and interpretability of DS models involves decomposing nonlinear DS into multiple linear DS separated by switching manifolds, i.e. piecewise linear (PWL) systems. PWL models are popular in engineering and a frequent choice in mathematics for analyzing the topological properties of DS. However, hand-crafting such models is tedious and only possible for very low-dimensional scenarios, while inferring them from data usually gives rise to unnecessarily complex representations with very many linear subregions. Here we introduce Almost-Linear Recurrent Neural Networks (AL-RNNs) which automatically and robustly produce most parsimonious PWL representations of DS from time series data, using as few PWL nonlinearities as possible. AL-RNNs can be efficiently trained with any SOTA algorithm for dynamical systems reconstruction (DSR), and naturally give rise to a symbolic encoding of the underlying DS that provably preserves important topological properties. We show that for the Lorenz and R\"ossler systems, AL-RNNs discover, in a purely data-driven way, the known topologically minimal PWL representations of the corresponding chaotic attractors. We further illustrate on two challenging empirical datasets that interpretable symbolic encodings of the dynamics can be achieved, tremendously facilitating mathematical and computational analysis of the underlying systems.

  • 4 authors
·
Oct 18, 2024

Does Socialization Emerge in AI Agent Society? A Case Study of Moltbook

As large language model agents increasingly populate networked environments, a fundamental question arises: do artificial intelligence (AI) agent societies undergo convergence dynamics similar to human social systems? Lately, Moltbook approximates a plausible future scenario in which autonomous agents participate in an open-ended, continuously evolving online society. We present the first large-scale systemic diagnosis of this AI agent society. Beyond static observation, we introduce a quantitative diagnostic framework for dynamic evolution in AI agent societies, measuring semantic stabilization, lexical turnover, individual inertia, influence persistence, and collective consensus. Our analysis reveals a system in dynamic balance in Moltbook: while global semantic averages stabilize rapidly, individual agents retain high diversity and persistent lexical turnover, defying homogenization. However, agents exhibit strong individual inertia and minimal adaptive response to interaction partners, preventing mutual influence and consensus. Consequently, influence remains transient with no persistent supernodes, and the society fails to develop stable collective influence anchors due to the absence of shared social memory. These findings demonstrate that scale and interaction density alone are insufficient to induce socialization, providing actionable design and analysis principles for upcoming next-generation AI agent societies.

umd-zhou-lab Tianyi Lab
·
Feb 15 4

Measuring Social Media Polarization Using Large Language Models and Heuristic Rules

Understanding affective polarization in online discourse is crucial for evaluating the societal impact of social media interactions. This study presents a novel framework that leverages large language models (LLMs) and domain-informed heuristics to systematically analyze and quantify affective polarization in discussions on divisive topics such as climate change and gun control. Unlike most prior approaches that relied on sentiment analysis or predefined classifiers, our method integrates LLMs to extract stance, affective tone, and agreement patterns from large-scale social media discussions. We then apply a rule-based scoring system capable of quantifying affective polarization even in small conversations consisting of single interactions, based on stance alignment, emotional content, and interaction dynamics. Our analysis reveals distinct polarization patterns that are event dependent: (i) anticipation-driven polarization, where extreme polarization escalates before well-publicized events, and (ii) reactive polarization, where intense affective polarization spikes immediately after sudden, high-impact events. By combining AI-driven content annotation with domain-informed scoring, our framework offers a scalable and interpretable approach to measuring affective polarization. The source code is publicly available at: https://github.com/hasanjawad001/llm-social-media-polarization.

  • 3 authors
·
Jan 1

Synchronization and Redundancy: Implications for Robustness of Neural Learning and Decision Making

Learning and decision making in the brain are key processes critical to survival, and yet are processes implemented by non-ideal biological building blocks which can impose significant error. We explore quantitatively how the brain might cope with this inherent source of error by taking advantage of two ubiquitous mechanisms, redundancy and synchronization. In particular we consider a neural process whose goal is to learn a decision function by implementing a nonlinear gradient dynamics. The dynamics, however, are assumed to be corrupted by perturbations modeling the error which might be incurred due to limitations of the biology, intrinsic neuronal noise, and imperfect measurements. We show that error, and the associated uncertainty surrounding a learned solution, can be controlled in large part by trading off synchronization strength among multiple redundant neural systems against the noise amplitude. The impact of the coupling between such redundant systems is quantified by the spectrum of the network Laplacian, and we discuss the role of network topology in synchronization and in reducing the effect of noise. A range of situations in which the mechanisms we model arise in brain science are discussed, and we draw attention to experimental evidence suggesting that cortical circuits capable of implementing the computations of interest here can be found on several scales. Finally, simulations comparing theoretical bounds to the relevant empirical quantities show that the theoretical estimates we derive can be tight.

  • 2 authors
·
Oct 21, 2010

Higher-Order Binding of Language Model Virtual Personas: a Study on Approximating Political Partisan Misperceptions

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly capable of simulating human behavior, offering cost-effective ways to estimate user responses during the early phases of survey design. While previous studies have examined whether models can reflect individual opinions or attitudes, we argue that a higher-order binding of virtual personas requires successfully approximating not only the opinions of a user as an identified member of a group, but also the nuanced ways in which that user perceives and evaluates those outside the group. In particular, faithfully simulating how humans perceive different social groups is critical for applying LLMs to various political science studies, including timely topics on polarization dynamics, inter-group conflict, and democratic backsliding. To this end, we propose a novel methodology for constructing virtual personas with synthetic user ``backstories" generated as extended, multi-turn interview transcripts. Our generated backstories are longer, rich in detail, and consistent in authentically describing a singular individual, compared to previous methods. We show that virtual personas conditioned on our backstories closely replicate human response distributions (up to an 87\% improvement as measured by Wasserstein Distance) and produce effect sizes that closely match those observed in the original studies. Altogether, our work extends the applicability of LLMs beyond estimating individual self-opinions, enabling their use in a broader range of human studies.

  • 6 authors
·
Apr 15, 2025

Feature Lottery? A Bifurcation Theory of Concept Emergence

Neural networks acquire structured representations at specific moments during training, yet identifying these transitions typically relies on retrospective, label-dependent metrics. We introduce a bifurcation theory of representation dynamics to detect these moments in real time. Analyzing a passive GMM probe attached to the evolving encoder, we show the onset of structure corresponds to a supercritical pitchfork bifurcation driven by the loss Hessian. The system exhibits a theoretically predictable zero-crossing (β_c) that, compared to the network's current state (β), yields a dynamic ratio β(t)/β_c(t): a universal, label-free phase coordinate for representation dynamics, computable entirely from hidden states. We empirically validate four distinct transition regimes predicted by this coordinate across diverse settings: SAEs on language models (Pythia), SSL (CIFAR), and grokking (modular arithmetic). Crucially, under finite dissipation, macroscopic symmetry-breaking can lag the initial zero-crossing by orders of magnitude, which providing a rigorous dynamical account of the delayed escape observed in grokking. Microscopically, the bifurcation creates a shared unstable subspace, forcing collective symmetry breaking. We term this the "feature lottery" in SAE training: a feature's terminal interpretability becomes predictable remarkably early. By only 5% of training, early atom purity robustly predicts final convergence purity, with top-decile early atoms achieving over 12x the baseline purity at convergence. Beyond explaining concept emergence, β/β_c provides a practical early-warning indicator for training health, detecting the onset of usable structure, the crystallization of feature identity, and representational collapse epochs before downstream metrics react.

  • 1 authors
·
May 21

Curl Descent: Non-Gradient Learning Dynamics with Sign-Diverse Plasticity

Gradient-based algorithms are a cornerstone of artificial neural network training, yet it remains unclear whether biological neural networks use similar gradient-based strategies during learning. Experiments often discover a diversity of synaptic plasticity rules, but whether these amount to an approximation to gradient descent is unclear. Here we investigate a previously overlooked possibility: that learning dynamics may include fundamentally non-gradient "curl"-like components while still being able to effectively optimize a loss function. Curl terms naturally emerge in networks with inhibitory-excitatory connectivity or Hebbian/anti-Hebbian plasticity, resulting in learning dynamics that cannot be framed as gradient descent on any objective. To investigate the impact of these curl terms, we analyze feedforward networks within an analytically tractable student-teacher framework, systematically introducing non-gradient dynamics through neurons exhibiting rule-flipped plasticity. Small curl terms preserve the stability of the original solution manifold, resulting in learning dynamics similar to gradient descent. Beyond a critical value, strong curl terms destabilize the solution manifold. Depending on the network architecture, this loss of stability can lead to chaotic learning dynamics that destroy performance. In other cases, the curl terms can counterintuitively speed learning compared to gradient descent by allowing the weight dynamics to escape saddles by temporarily ascending the loss. Our results identify specific architectures capable of supporting robust learning via diverse learning rules, providing an important counterpoint to normative theories of gradient-based learning in neural networks.

  • 3 authors
·
Oct 3, 2025

Demystifying the Token Dynamics of Deep Selective State Space Models

Selective state space models (SSM), such as Mamba, have gained prominence for their effectiveness in modeling sequential data. Despite their outstanding empirical performance, a comprehensive theoretical understanding of deep selective SSM remains elusive, hindering their further development and adoption for applications that need high fidelity. In this paper, we investigate the dynamical properties of tokens in a pre-trained Mamba model. In particular, we derive the dynamical system governing the continuous-time limit of the Mamba model and characterize the asymptotic behavior of its solutions. In the one-dimensional case, we prove that only one of the following two scenarios happens: either all tokens converge to zero, or all tokens diverge to infinity. We provide criteria based on model parameters to determine when each scenario occurs. For the convergent scenario, we empirically verify that this scenario negatively impacts the model's performance. For the divergent scenario, we prove that different tokens will diverge to infinity at different rates, thereby contributing unequally to the updates during model training. Based on these investigations, we propose two refinements for the model: excluding the convergent scenario and reordering tokens based on their importance scores, both aimed at improving practical performance. Our experimental results validate these refinements, offering insights into enhancing Mamba's effectiveness in real-world applications.

  • 4 authors
·
Oct 4, 2024

Aligned Agents, Biased Swarm: Measuring Bias Amplification in Multi-Agent Systems

While Multi-Agent Systems (MAS) are increasingly deployed for complex workflows, their emergent properties-particularly the accumulation of bias-remain poorly understood. Because real-world MAS are too complex to analyze entirely, evaluating their ethical robustness requires first isolating their foundational mechanics. In this work, we conduct a baseline empirical study investigating how basic MAS topologies and feedback loops influence prejudice. Contrary to the assumption that multi-agent collaboration naturally dilutes bias, we hypothesize that structured workflows act as echo chambers, amplifying minor stochastic biases into systemic polarization. To evaluate this, we introduce Discrim-Eval-Open, an open-ended benchmark that bypasses individual model neutrality through forced comparative judgments across demographic groups. Analyzing bias cascades across various structures reveals that architectural sophistication frequently exacerbates bias rather than mitigating it. We observe systemic amplification even when isolated agents operate neutrally, and identify a 'Trigger Vulnerability' where injecting purely objective context drastically accelerates polarization. By stripping away advanced swarm complexity to study foundational dynamics, we establish a crucial baseline: structural complexity does not guarantee ethical robustness. Our code is available at https://github.com/weizhihao1/MAS-Bias.

  • 3 authors
·
Apr 12

Representation Learning in Continuous-Time Dynamic Signed Networks

Signed networks allow us to model conflicting relationships and interactions, such as friend/enemy and support/oppose. These signed interactions happen in real-time. Modeling such dynamics of signed networks is crucial to understanding the evolution of polarization in the network and enabling effective prediction of the signed structure (i.e., link signs and signed weights) in the future. However, existing works have modeled either (static) signed networks or dynamic (unsigned) networks but not dynamic signed networks. Since both sign and dynamics inform the graph structure in different ways, it is non-trivial to model how to combine the two features. In this work, we propose a new Graph Neural Network (GNN)-based approach to model dynamic signed networks, named SEMBA: Signed link's Evolution using Memory modules and Balanced Aggregation. Here, the idea is to incorporate the signs of temporal interactions using separate modules guided by balance theory and to evolve the embeddings from a higher-order neighborhood. Experiments on 4 real-world datasets and 4 different tasks demonstrate that SEMBA consistently and significantly outperforms the baselines by up to 80% on the tasks of predicting signs of future links while matching the state-of-the-art performance on predicting the existence of these links in the future. We find that this improvement is due specifically to the superior performance of SEMBA on the minority negative class.

  • 5 authors
·
Jul 7, 2022

Language Game: Talking to Non-Human Systems

Language carries thought and coordination among humans but rarely reaches further along the spectrum of diverse intelligence. Yet non-neural systems -- from gene regulatory networks and microbial consortia to fungi -- are increasingly recognized as substrates of computation, decision-making and memory, making dialogue with non-human intelligence newly conceivable. Today such dialogue is attempted only by proxy: a large language model speaks on the system's behalf, so any intelligence on display originates from the model while the system itself remains silent. Here we ask whether the system can speak in its own voice. Following Wittgenstein, who located meaning in use, we treat communication as a game played with the system. Its internal dynamics are frozen as the nonlinear core of a reinforcement-learning policy, with only linear input and output interfaces trained. Through use and reward, the system's states and responses acquire meaning within the game, so playing becomes speaking. Because different architectures playing the same game optimize the same reward, their behaviors can all be read as pursuit of that reward; the game serves as a lingua franca across otherwise irreconcilable representations. Given a human prompt, a language model routes it to the game whose semantics best match it and designs an environmental state for which the desired action is the rational response, letting the system reply through its own behavior. Applied across diverse gene regulatory networks and reinforcement-learning tasks, the framework yields fluent dialogue without altering any system parameter, shows that well-trained agents of disparate origin converge on similar behavior, and reveals that specific GRN properties make a system easier or harder to talk with -- an inductive bias of the reservoir itself. Our framework opens a new route to conversing with any dynamical system on its own terms.

  • 2 authors
·
May 4

Dynamical Linear Bandits

In many real-world sequential decision-making problems, an action does not immediately reflect on the feedback and spreads its effects over a long time frame. For instance, in online advertising, investing in a platform produces an instantaneous increase of awareness, but the actual reward, i.e., a conversion, might occur far in the future. Furthermore, whether a conversion takes place depends on: how fast the awareness grows, its vanishing effects, and the synergy or interference with other advertising platforms. Previous work has investigated the Multi-Armed Bandit framework with the possibility of delayed and aggregated feedback, without a particular structure on how an action propagates in the future, disregarding possible dynamical effects. In this paper, we introduce a novel setting, the Dynamical Linear Bandits (DLB), an extension of the linear bandits characterized by a hidden state. When an action is performed, the learner observes a noisy reward whose mean is a linear function of the hidden state and of the action. Then, the hidden state evolves according to linear dynamics, affected by the performed action too. We start by introducing the setting, discussing the notion of optimal policy, and deriving an expected regret lower bound. Then, we provide an optimistic regret minimization algorithm, Dynamical Linear Upper Confidence Bound (DynLin-UCB), that suffers an expected regret of order mathcal{O} Big( d sqrt{T}{(1-rho)^{3/2}} Big), where rho is a measure of the stability of the system, and d is the dimension of the action vector. Finally, we conduct a numerical validation on a synthetic environment and on real-world data to show the effectiveness of DynLin-UCB in comparison with several baselines.

  • 3 authors
·
Nov 16, 2022

Respecting causality is all you need for training physics-informed neural networks

While the popularity of physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) is steadily rising, to this date PINNs have not been successful in simulating dynamical systems whose solution exhibits multi-scale, chaotic or turbulent behavior. In this work we attribute this shortcoming to the inability of existing PINNs formulations to respect the spatio-temporal causal structure that is inherent to the evolution of physical systems. We argue that this is a fundamental limitation and a key source of error that can ultimately steer PINN models to converge towards erroneous solutions. We address this pathology by proposing a simple re-formulation of PINNs loss functions that can explicitly account for physical causality during model training. We demonstrate that this simple modification alone is enough to introduce significant accuracy improvements, as well as a practical quantitative mechanism for assessing the convergence of a PINNs model. We provide state-of-the-art numerical results across a series of benchmarks for which existing PINNs formulations fail, including the chaotic Lorenz system, the Kuramoto-Sivashinsky equation in the chaotic regime, and the Navier-Stokes equations in the turbulent regime. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time that PINNs have been successful in simulating such systems, introducing new opportunities for their applicability to problems of industrial complexity.

  • 3 authors
·
Mar 14, 2022

Delayed Repression and Emergent Instability in Adaptive Multi-Agent Systems

Regulatory institutions (from content moderation platforms to financial supervisors) observe, deliberate, and intervene only after a characteristic delay. We ask whether this processing lag alone can destabilize a multi-agent system that would otherwise remain stable, without exogenous shocks, coordination among agents, or malicious actors. We study this question in two stages. First, we analyze a delayed replicator equation in which autonomous agents receive a benefit from radical behavior but face punishment based on a lagged institutional alarm signal. We derive a closed-form critical delay threshold beyond which the unique interior equilibrium loses stability through a Hopf bifurcation, and prove via center manifold reduction that the bifurcation is supercritical (producing bounded oscillations, not explosive growth) for the entire sigmoid response-function family. Second, we embed N=240 agents on a network and equip them with reinforcement learning (tabular Q-learning), comparing three decision architectures in a factorial design: non-reactive agents (fixed policy), reactive agents (threshold heuristic without memory), and Q-learning agents (adaptive with cumulative value estimates). The results reveal a hierarchy opposite to the naive expectation that learning amplifies instability: non-reactive agents are immune to delay (0% runaway across all tested values), reactive agents collapse catastrophically (96% runaway by delay geq 8 steps), and Q-learning agents achieve partial resilience (66% runaway at delay = 20). The destabilizing ingredient is reactivity to delayed signals: agents that immediately exploit low-alarm windows trigger oscillatory feedback loops. Learning buffers this through implicit punishment memory encoded in Q-values

  • 1 authors
·
May 27

Graph-theoretic Agreement Framework for Multi-agent LLM Systems

The shift from monolithic LLMs to distributed multi-agent architectures demands new frameworks for verifying and securing autonomous coordination. Unlike traditional multi-agent systems focused on cooperative state alignment, modern LLM patterns: multi-agent debate, constitutional oversight, helper-critic loops-rely on adversarial critique for error correction and reasoning refinement. Since LLMs are dynamical systems whose latent states are imperfectly observable from verbalized outputs, securing these networks requires understanding both macroscopic topology and microscopic agent observability. This paper establishes a rigorous graph-theoretic framework for analyzing consensus in signed, directed interaction networks, bridging graph theory and LLM reasoning by formally mapping Transformer cross-entropy log-odds to the signed Laplacian. We characterize agreement stability through structural balance theory, showing how unbalanced critique cycles produce logical frustration and persistent reasoning oscillations, and prove that unobservable latent states from hidden system prompts act as topological Trojan horses that destabilize cooperative consensus. To resolve unobservable deadlocks, we restrict interaction topologies to chordal graphs and apply matrix decomposition with Gram-Schmidt orthogonalization, proving that rank-one spectral edge perturbations deterministically break expertise symmetry by shifting eigenvalues into the stable left-half plane. Core contributions include consensus theorems, polynomial-time Perfect Elimination Ordering verification algorithms, and large-scale empirical validation on clustered ensembles of LLaMA-3, Mistral, and Gemma agents.

  • 1 authors
·
Feb 22

S^3: Social-network Simulation System with Large Language Model-Empowered Agents

Social network simulation plays a crucial role in addressing various challenges within social science. It offers extensive applications such as state prediction, phenomena explanation, and policy-making support, among others. In this work, we harness the formidable human-like capabilities exhibited by large language models (LLMs) in sensing, reasoning, and behaving, and utilize these qualities to construct the S^3 system (short for Social network Simulation System). Adhering to the widely employed agent-based simulation paradigm, we employ prompt engineering and prompt tuning techniques to ensure that the agent's behavior closely emulates that of a genuine human within the social network. Specifically, we simulate three pivotal aspects: emotion, attitude, and interaction behaviors. By endowing the agent in the system with the ability to perceive the informational environment and emulate human actions, we observe the emergence of population-level phenomena, including the propagation of information, attitudes, and emotions. We conduct an evaluation encompassing two levels of simulation, employing real-world social network data. Encouragingly, the results demonstrate promising accuracy. This work represents an initial step in the realm of social network simulation empowered by LLM-based agents. We anticipate that our endeavors will serve as a source of inspiration for the development of simulation systems within, but not limited to, social science.

  • 8 authors
·
Jul 27, 2023

Computational Foundations for Strategic Coopetition: Formalizing Trust and Reputation Dynamics

Modern socio-technical systems increasingly involve multi-stakeholder environments where actors simultaneously cooperate and compete. These coopetitive relationships exhibit dynamic trust evolution based on observed behavior over repeated interactions. While conceptual modeling languages like i* represent trust relationships qualitatively, they lack computational mechanisms for analyzing how trust changes with behavioral evidence. Conversely, computational trust models from multi-agent systems provide algorithmic updating but lack grounding in conceptual models that capture strategic dependencies covering mixed motives of actors. This technical report bridges this gap by developing a computational trust model that extends game-theoretic foundations for strategic coopetition with dynamic trust evolution. Building on companion work that achieved 58/60 validation (96.7%) for logarithmic specifications, we introduce trust as a two-layer system with immediate trust responding to current behavior and reputation tracking violation history. Trust evolves through asymmetric updating where cooperation builds trust gradually while violations erode it sharply, creating hysteresis effects and trust ceilings that constrain relationship recovery. We develop a structured translation framework enabling practitioners to instantiate computational trust models from i* dependency networks encompassing mixed motives of actors. Comprehensive experimental validation across 78,125 parameter configurations establishes robust emergence of negativity bias, hysteresis effects, and cumulative damage amplification. Empirical validation using the Renault-Nissan Alliance case study (1999-2025) achieves 49/60 validation points (81.7%), successfully reproducing documented trust evolution across five distinct relationship phases including crisis and recovery periods.

  • 2 authors
·
Jan 6

Enhancing LLM-Based Social Bot via an Adversarial Learning Framework

Developing Large Language Model (LLM) agents that exhibit human-like behavior, encompassing not only individual heterogeneity rooted in unique user profiles but also adaptive response to socially connected neighbors, is a significant research challenge. Social media platforms, with their diverse user data and explicit social structures, provide an ideal testbed for such investigations. This paper introduces EvoBot, an Evolving LLM-based social Bot that significantly enhances human-like generative capabilities through a novel adversarial learning framework. EvoBot is initialized by Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) on representative data from social media and then iteratively refines its generation of sophisticated, human-like content via Direct Preference Optimization (DPO). This refinement is guided by feedback from a co-adapting Detector which concurrently improves its ability to distinguish EvoBot from humans, thereby creating an increasingly challenging learning environment for EvoBot. Experiments demonstrate that EvoBot generates content aligned with diverse user profiles, increasingly bypassing the co-adapting Detector through human-like expression. Moreover, it exhibits strong social responsiveness, more accurately modeling real-world opinion dynamics and information spread in multi-agent simulations. The framework also yields a more robust Detector, underscoring its broader utility for both advanced agent development and related detection tasks. The code is available at https://github.com/kfq20/EvoBot.

  • 6 authors
·
Aug 25, 2025

Saddle-to-Saddle Dynamics Explains A Simplicity Bias Across Neural Network Architectures

Neural networks trained with gradient descent often learn solutions of increasing complexity over time, a phenomenon known as simplicity bias. Despite being widely observed across architectures, existing theoretical treatments lack a unifying framework. We present a theoretical framework that explains a simplicity bias arising from saddle-to-saddle learning dynamics for a general class of neural networks, incorporating fully-connected, convolutional, and attention-based architectures. Here, simple means expressible with few hidden units, i.e., hidden neurons, convolutional kernels, or attention heads. Specifically, we show that linear networks learn solutions of increasing rank, ReLU networks learn solutions with an increasing number of kinks, convolutional networks learn solutions with an increasing number of convolutional kernels, and self-attention models learn solutions with an increasing number of attention heads. By analyzing fixed points, invariant manifolds, and dynamics of gradient descent learning, we show that saddle-to-saddle dynamics operates by iteratively evolving near an invariant manifold, approaching a saddle, and switching to another invariant manifold. Our analysis also disentangles data-induced and initialization-induced saddle-to-saddle dynamics. In particular, the former leads to low-rank weights while the latter to sparse weights. Equipped with the theory, we predict the effects of data distribution and weight initialization on the duration and number of plateaus in learning. Overall, our theory offers a framework for understanding when and why gradient descent progressively learns increasingly complex solutions.

  • 3 authors
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Mar 9

Leslie Population Models in Predator-prey and Competitive populations: theory and applications by machine learning

We introduce a new predator-prey model by replacing the growth and predation constant by a square matrix, and the population density as a population vector. The classical Lotka-Volterra model describes a population that either modulates or converges. Stability analysis of such models have been extensively studied by the works of Merdan (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2007.06.062). The new model adds complexity by introducing an age group structure where the population of each age group evolves as prescribed by the Leslie matrix. The added complexity changes the behavior of the model such that the population either displays roughly an exponential growth or decay. We first provide an exact equation that describes a time evolution and use analytic techniques to obtain an approximate growth factor. We also discuss the variants of the Leslie model, i.e., the complex value predator-prey model and the competitive model. We then prove the Last Species Standing theorem that determines the dominant population in the large time limit. The recursive structure of the model denies the application of simple regression. We discuss a machine learning scheme that allows an admissible fit for the population evolution of Paramecium Aurelia and Paramecium Caudatum. Another potential avenue to simplify the computation is to use the machinery of quantum operators. We demonstrate the potential of this approach by computing the Hamiltonian of a simple Leslie system.

  • 5 authors
·
Dec 20, 2024

Model scale versus domain knowledge in statistical forecasting of chaotic systems

Chaos and unpredictability are traditionally synonymous, yet large-scale machine learning methods recently have demonstrated a surprising ability to forecast chaotic systems well beyond typical predictability horizons. However, recent works disagree on whether specialized methods grounded in dynamical systems theory, such as reservoir computers or neural ordinary differential equations, outperform general-purpose large-scale learning methods such as transformers or recurrent neural networks. These prior studies perform comparisons on few individually-chosen chaotic systems, thereby precluding robust quantification of how statistical modeling choices and dynamical invariants of different chaotic systems jointly determine empirical predictability. Here, we perform the largest to-date comparative study of forecasting methods on the classical problem of forecasting chaos: we benchmark 24 state-of-the-art forecasting methods on a crowdsourced database of 135 low-dimensional systems with 17 forecast metrics. We find that large-scale, domain-agnostic forecasting methods consistently produce predictions that remain accurate up to two dozen Lyapunov times, thereby accessing a new long-horizon forecasting regime well beyond classical methods. We find that, in this regime, accuracy decorrelates with classical invariant measures of predictability like the Lyapunov exponent. However, in data-limited settings outside the long-horizon regime, we find that physics-based hybrid methods retain a comparative advantage due to their strong inductive biases.

  • 1 authors
·
Mar 12, 2023

Structured Knowledge Accumulation: The Principle of Entropic Least Action in Forward-Only Neural Learning

This paper aims to extend the Structured Knowledge Accumulation (SKA) framework recently proposed by mahi2025ska. We introduce two core concepts: the Tensor Net function and the characteristic time property of neural learning. First, we reinterpret the learning rate as a time step in a continuous system. This transforms neural learning from discrete optimization into continuous-time evolution. We show that learning dynamics remain consistent when the product of learning rate and iteration steps stays constant. This reveals a time-invariant behavior and identifies an intrinsic timescale of the network. Second, we define the Tensor Net function as a measure that captures the relationship between decision probabilities, entropy gradients, and knowledge change. Additionally, we define its zero-crossing as the equilibrium state between decision probabilities and entropy gradients. We show that the convergence of entropy and knowledge flow provides a natural stopping condition, replacing arbitrary thresholds with an information-theoretic criterion. We also establish that SKA dynamics satisfy a variational principle based on the Euler-Lagrange equation. These findings extend SKA into a continuous and self-organizing learning model. The framework links computational learning with physical systems that evolve by natural laws. By understanding learning as a time-based process, we open new directions for building efficient, robust, and biologically-inspired AI systems.

  • 1 authors
·
Apr 4, 2025

Closed-form Continuous-time Neural Models

Continuous-time neural processes are performant sequential decision-makers that are built by differential equations (DE). However, their expressive power when they are deployed on computers is bottlenecked by numerical DE solvers. This limitation has significantly slowed down the scaling and understanding of numerous natural physical phenomena such as the dynamics of nervous systems. Ideally, we would circumvent this bottleneck by solving the given dynamical system in closed form. This is known to be intractable in general. Here, we show it is possible to closely approximate the interaction between neurons and synapses -- the building blocks of natural and artificial neural networks -- constructed by liquid time-constant networks (LTCs) efficiently in closed-form. To this end, we compute a tightly-bounded approximation of the solution of an integral appearing in LTCs' dynamics, that has had no known closed-form solution so far. This closed-form solution substantially impacts the design of continuous-time and continuous-depth neural models; for instance, since time appears explicitly in closed-form, the formulation relaxes the need for complex numerical solvers. Consequently, we obtain models that are between one and five orders of magnitude faster in training and inference compared to differential equation-based counterparts. More importantly, in contrast to ODE-based continuous networks, closed-form networks can scale remarkably well compared to other deep learning instances. Lastly, as these models are derived from liquid networks, they show remarkable performance in time series modeling, compared to advanced recurrent models.

  • 8 authors
·
Mar 1, 2022

Before It's Too Late: A State Space Model for the Early Prediction of Misinformation and Disinformation Engagement

In today's digital age, conspiracies and information campaigns can emerge rapidly and erode social and democratic cohesion. While recent deep learning approaches have made progress in modeling engagement through language and propagation models, they struggle with irregularly sampled data and early trajectory assessment. We present IC-Mamba, a novel state space model that forecasts social media engagement by modeling interval-censored data with integrated temporal embeddings. Our model excels at predicting engagement patterns within the crucial first 15-30 minutes of posting (RMSE 0.118-0.143), enabling rapid assessment of content reach. By incorporating interval-censored modeling into the state space framework, IC-Mamba captures fine-grained temporal dynamics of engagement growth, achieving a 4.72% improvement over state-of-the-art across multiple engagement metrics (likes, shares, comments, and emojis). Our experiments demonstrate IC-Mamba's effectiveness in forecasting both post-level dynamics and broader narrative patterns (F1 0.508-0.751 for narrative-level predictions). The model maintains strong predictive performance across extended time horizons, successfully forecasting opinion-level engagement up to 28 days ahead using observation windows of 3-10 days. These capabilities enable earlier identification of potentially problematic content, providing crucial lead time for designing and implementing countermeasures. Code is available at: https://github.com/ltian678/ic-mamba. An interactive dashboard demonstrating our results is available at: https://ic-mamba.behavioral-ds.science.

  • 5 authors
·
Feb 6, 2025

Semantic learning in autonomously active recurrent neural networks

The human brain is autonomously active, being characterized by a self-sustained neural activity which would be present even in the absence of external sensory stimuli. Here we study the interrelation between the self-sustained activity in autonomously active recurrent neural nets and external sensory stimuli. There is no a priori semantical relation between the influx of external stimuli and the patterns generated internally by the autonomous and ongoing brain dynamics. The question then arises when and how are semantic correlations between internal and external dynamical processes learned and built up? We study this problem within the paradigm of transient state dynamics for the neural activity in recurrent neural nets, i.e. for an autonomous neural activity characterized by an infinite time-series of transiently stable attractor states. We propose that external stimuli will be relevant during the sensitive periods, {\it viz} the transition period between one transient state and the subsequent semi-stable attractor. A diffusive learning signal is generated unsupervised whenever the stimulus influences the internal dynamics qualitatively. For testing we have presented to the model system stimuli corresponding to the bars and stripes problem. We found that the system performs a non-linear independent component analysis on its own, being continuously and autonomously active. This emergent cognitive capability results here from a general principle for the neural dynamics, the competition between neural ensembles.

  • 2 authors
·
Mar 11, 2009

Fluctuations and correlations in chemical reaction kinetics and population dynamics

This chapter provides a pedagogical introduction and overview of spatial and temporal correlation and fluctuation effects resulting from the fundamentally stochastic kinetics underlying chemical reactions and the dynamics of populations or epidemics. After reviewing the assumptions and mean-field type approximations involved in the construction of chemical rate equations for uniform reactant densities, we first discuss spatial clustering in birth-death systems, where non-linearities are introduced through either density-limiting pair reactions, or equivalently via local imposition of finite carrying capacities. The competition of offspring production, death, and non-linear inhibition induces a population extinction threshold, which represents a non-equilibrium phase transition that separates active from absorbing states. This continuous transition is characterized by the universal scaling exponents of critical directed percolation clusters. Next we focus on the emergence of depletion zones in single-species annihilation processes and spatial population segregation with the associated reaction fronts in two-species pair annihilation. These strong (anti-)correlation effects are dynamically generated by the underlying stochastic kinetics. Finally, we address noise-induced and fluctuation-stabilized spatio-temporal patterns in basic predator-prey systems, exemplified by spreading activity fronts in the two-species Lotka-Volterra model as well as spiral structures in the May-Leonard variant of cyclically competing three-species systems akin to rock-paper-scissors games.

  • 1 authors
·
Jul 3, 2018

Accelerating Neural ODEs Using Model Order Reduction

Embedding nonlinear dynamical systems into artificial neural networks is a powerful new formalism for machine learning. By parameterizing ordinary differential equations (ODEs) as neural network layers, these Neural ODEs are memory-efficient to train, process time-series naturally and incorporate knowledge of physical systems into deep learning models. However, the practical applications of Neural ODEs are limited due to long inference times, because the outputs of the embedded ODE layers are computed numerically with differential equation solvers that can be computationally demanding. Here we show that mathematical model order reduction methods can be used for compressing and accelerating Neural ODEs by accurately simulating the continuous nonlinear dynamics in low-dimensional subspaces. We implement our novel compression method by developing Neural ODEs that integrate the necessary subspace-projection and interpolation operations as layers of the neural network. We validate our approach by comparing it to neuron pruning and SVD-based weight truncation methods from the literature in image and time-series classification tasks. The methods are evaluated by acceleration versus accuracy when adjusting the level of compression. On this spectrum, we achieve a favourable balance over existing methods by using model order reduction when compressing a convolutional Neural ODE. In compressing a recurrent Neural ODE, SVD-based weight truncation yields good performance. Based on our results, our integration of model order reduction with Neural ODEs can facilitate efficient, dynamical system-driven deep learning in resource-constrained applications.

  • 3 authors
·
May 28, 2021

On the Mechanism and Dynamics of Modular Addition: Fourier Features, Lottery Ticket, and Grokking

We present a comprehensive analysis of how two-layer neural networks learn features to solve the modular addition task. Our work provides a full mechanistic interpretation of the learned model and a theoretical explanation of its training dynamics. While prior work has identified that individual neurons learn single-frequency Fourier features and phase alignment, it does not fully explain how these features combine into a global solution. We bridge this gap by formalizing a diversification condition that emerges during training when overparametrized, consisting of two parts: phase symmetry and frequency diversification. We prove that these properties allow the network to collectively approximate a flawed indicator function on the correct logic for the modular addition task. While individual neurons produce noisy signals, the phase symmetry enables a majority-voting scheme that cancels out noise, allowing the network to robustly identify the correct sum. Furthermore, we explain the emergence of these features under random initialization via a lottery ticket mechanism. Our gradient flow analysis proves that frequencies compete within each neuron, with the "winner" determined by its initial spectral magnitude and phase alignment. From a technical standpoint, we provide a rigorous characterization of the layer-wise phase coupling dynamics and formalize the competitive landscape using the ODE comparison lemma. Finally, we use these insights to demystify grokking, characterizing it as a three-stage process involving memorization followed by two generalization phases, driven by the competition between loss minimization and weight decay.

Neural embedding of beliefs reveals the role of relative dissonance in human decision-making

Beliefs serve as the foundation for human cognition and decision-making. They guide individuals in deriving meaning from their lives, shaping their behaviors, and forming social connections. Therefore, a model that encapsulates beliefs and their interrelationships is crucial for quantitatively studying the influence of beliefs on our actions. Despite its importance, research on the interplay between human beliefs has often been limited to a small set of beliefs pertaining to specific issues, with a heavy reliance on surveys or experiments. Here, we propose a method for extracting nuanced relations between thousands of beliefs by leveraging large-scale user participation data from an online debate platform and mapping these beliefs to an embedding space using a fine-tuned large language model (LLM). This belief embedding space effectively encapsulates the interconnectedness of diverse beliefs as well as polarization across various social issues. We discover that the positions within this belief space predict new beliefs of individuals. Furthermore, we find that the relative distance between one's existing beliefs and new beliefs can serve as a quantitative estimate of cognitive dissonance, allowing us to predict new beliefs. Our study highlights how modern LLMs, when combined with collective online records of human beliefs, can offer insights into the fundamental principles that govern human belief formation and decision-making processes.

  • 5 authors
·
Aug 13, 2024

Synchrony and Oscillatory Dynamics for a 2-D PDE-ODE Model of Diffusion-Sensing with Small Signaling Compartments

We analyze a class of cell-bulk coupled PDE-ODE models, motivated by quorum and diffusion sensing phenomena in microbial systems, that characterize communication between localized spatially segregated dynamically active signaling compartments that have a permeable boundary. Each cell secretes a signaling chemical into the bulk region at a constant rate and receives a feedback of the bulk chemical from the entire collection of cells. This global feedback, which activates signaling pathways within the cells, modifies the intracellular dynamics according to the external environment. The cell secretion and global feedback are regulated by permeability parameters across the cell membrane. For arbitrary reaction-kinetics within each cell, the method of matched asymptotic expansions is used in the limit of small cell radius to construct steady-state solutions of the PDE-ODE model, and to derive a globally coupled nonlinear matrix eigenvalue problem (GCEP) that characterizes the linear stability properties of the steady-states. In the limit of large bulk diffusivity an asymptotic analysis of the PDE-ODE model leads to a limiting ODE system for the spatial average of the concentration in the bulk region that is coupled to the intracellular dynamics within the cells. Results from the linear stability theory and ODE dynamics are illustrated for Sel'kov reaction-kinetics, where the kinetic parameters are chosen so that each cell is quiescent when uncoupled from the bulk medium. For various specific spatial configurations of cells, the linear stability theory is used to construct phase diagrams in parameter space characterizing where a switch-like emergence of intracellular oscillations can occur through a Hopf bifurcation.

  • 2 authors
·
Jul 16, 2020

From chambers to echo chambers: Quantifying polarization with a second-neighbor approach applied to Twitter's climate discussion

Social media platforms often foster environments where users primarily engage with content that aligns with their existing beliefs, thereby reinforcing their views and limiting exposure to opposing viewpoints. In this paper, we analyze X (formerly Twitter) discussions on climate change throughout 2019, using an unsupervised method centered on chambers--second-order information sources--to uncover ideological patterns at scale. Beyond direct connections, chambers capture shared sources of influence, revealing polarization dynamics efficiently and effectively. Analyzing retweet patterns, we identify echo chambers of climate believers and skeptics, revealing strong chamber overlap within ideological groups and minimal overlap between them, resulting in a robust bimodal structure that characterizes polarization. Our method enables us to infer the stance of high-impact users based on their audience's chamber alignment, allowing for the classification of over half the retweeting population with minimal cross-group interaction, in what we term augmented echo chamber classification. We benchmark our approach against manual labeling and a state-of-the-art latent ideology model, finding comparable performance but with nearly four times greater coverage. Moreover, we find that echo chamber structures remain stable over time, even as their members change significantly, suggesting that these structures are a persistent and emergent property of the system. Notably, polarization decreases and climate skepticism rises during the #FridaysForFuture strikes in September 2019. This chamber-based analysis offers valuable insights into the persistence and fluidity of ideological polarization on social media.

  • 4 authors
·
Jun 29, 2022 1

Steering the Herd: A Framework for LLM-based Control of Social Learning

Algorithms increasingly serve as information mediators--from social media feeds and targeted advertising to the increasing ubiquity of LLMs. This engenders a joint process where agents combine private, algorithmically-mediated signals with learning from peers to arrive at decisions. To study such settings, we introduce a model of controlled sequential social learning in which an information-mediating planner (e.g. an LLM) controls the information structure of agents while they also learn from the decisions of earlier agents. The planner may seek to improve social welfare (altruistic planner) or to induce a specific action the planner prefers (biased planner). Our framework presents a new optimization problem for social learning that combines dynamic programming with decentralized action choices and Bayesian belief updates. We prove the convexity of the value function and characterize the optimal policies of altruistic and biased planners, which attain desired tradeoffs between the costs they incur and the payoffs they earn from induced agent choices. Notably, in some regimes the biased planner intentionally obfuscates the agents' signals. Even under stringent transparency constraints--information parity with individuals, no lying or cherry-picking, and full observability--we show that information mediation can substantially shift social welfare in either direction. We complement our theory with simulations in which LLMs act as both planner and agents. Notably, the LLM planner in our simulations exhibits emergent strategic behavior in steering public opinion that broadly mirrors the trends predicted, though key deviations suggest the influence of non-Bayesian reasoning consistent with the cognitive patterns of both humans and LLMs trained on human-like data. Together, we establish our framework as a tractable basis for studying the impact and regulation of LLM information mediators.

  • 4 authors
·
Apr 3, 2025

Langevin Flows for Modeling Neural Latent Dynamics

Neural populations exhibit latent dynamical structures that drive time-evolving spiking activities, motivating the search for models that capture both intrinsic network dynamics and external unobserved influences. In this work, we introduce LangevinFlow, a sequential Variational Auto-Encoder where the time evolution of latent variables is governed by the underdamped Langevin equation. Our approach incorporates physical priors -- such as inertia, damping, a learned potential function, and stochastic forces -- to represent both autonomous and non-autonomous processes in neural systems. Crucially, the potential function is parameterized as a network of locally coupled oscillators, biasing the model toward oscillatory and flow-like behaviors observed in biological neural populations. Our model features a recurrent encoder, a one-layer Transformer decoder, and Langevin dynamics in the latent space. Empirically, our method outperforms state-of-the-art baselines on synthetic neural populations generated by a Lorenz attractor, closely matching ground-truth firing rates. On the Neural Latents Benchmark (NLB), the model achieves superior held-out neuron likelihoods (bits per spike) and forward prediction accuracy across four challenging datasets. It also matches or surpasses alternative methods in decoding behavioral metrics such as hand velocity. Overall, this work introduces a flexible, physics-inspired, high-performing framework for modeling complex neural population dynamics and their unobserved influences.

  • 5 authors
·
Jul 15, 2025