Daily Papers

Robots must often continue a task after a target moves, the viewpoint shifts, or an obstacle appears, even though their earlier observations and committed actions reflect the previous scene. Many simulation robustness benchmarks fix external conditions at reset, leaving this temporal challenge underexamined. We introduce LIBERO-MAX, a benchmark of 8,000 paired cases spanning eight types of changes to geometry, observations, appearance, clutter, and paths. Each pair compares task execution with and without a mid-task event, holding the task, initial state, policy seed, and pre-event action sequence fixed. This controlled comparison distinguishes event-associated regressions from failures already present without the change. Across fourteen current VLA, hybrid, and world-action policies, events reduce success by 11.0-25.7 percentage points. Event profiles reveal shared vulnerabilities to geometry and observation changes, while policy-family rankings interleave. Camera controls show that robustness reflects both competence under the changed conditions and the trajectory from which they are encountered; varying query cadence does not eliminate the gap. Together, the paired protocol and temporal diagnostics establish LIBERO-MAX as a reproducible testbed for diagnosing failures under mid-execution changes and measuring progress toward robot policies that remain effective as the world changes.

Agent trajectories record what an agent does and what happens next. Yet standard supervised fine-tuning (SFT) applies loss only to agent-authored action tokens, using environment observations as context but not as prediction targets. We ask whether this convention provides the best initialization for subsequent reinforcement learning. We introduce ActObs, which also supervises the observation tokens already present in each trajectory. Although deployed agents never generate observations, learning to predict them encourages the policy to model action consequences without adding data, parameters, sequence tokens, or forward passes. The methods perform similarly after SFT but diverge after GRPO. On Qwen3-4B, GRPO from ActObs achieves higher pass@k at every evaluated sampling budget than its action-only counterpart on Terminal-Bench 2.0. On Qwen3-8B, it trades some pass@1 reliability for higher pass@k (+3.4 pp at pass@16) and solves more distinct tasks. The advantage extends to cross-domain code editing on aider-polyglot (+4.2 pp at pass@1 at 4B), whose tasks are unseen during SFT and RL. ActObs retains more entropy during RL while requiring less policy movement, leaving the final policy closer to its SFT initialization. Our analysis traces this difference to SFT: action and observation gradients rapidly become orthogonal, while action-only training leaves a large residual observation gradient and degrades environment prediction below the base model. Joint supervision prevents this one-sided specialization, preserving consequence prediction and preparing the policy for downstream exploration.

Camera-based perception systems for autonomous driving are typically developed and evaluated using fixed sensor rigs, while real-world vehicle fleets exhibit substantial variation in camera placement, orientation, field of view, and camera count. This mismatch introduces a cross-rig domain gap in which only the geometric observation process changes. To study this effect under controlled conditions, we introduce Plentiful CARLA Camera Rigs, a benchmark that renders identical driving scenes under 14 systematically designed camera rigs. This setup enables direct analysis of cross-rig generalization without confounding changes in scene content or appearance. Using the benchmark, we analyze cross-rig transfer behavior of representative multi-view perception architectures and observe substantial performance shifts induced by geometric rig variation. To facilitate structured analysis, we further introduce two calibration-based descriptors derived from rig metadata: Rig Variance, capturing internal rig diversity, and Rig Contrastive Distance, measuring geometric discrepancy between rigs. Our experiments show that geometric rig differences strongly correlate with relative cross-rig performance shifts and that Rig Contrastive Distance provides a reliable proxy for ranking transfer difficulty between sensor rigs.

Domain adaptation in reinforcement learning (RL) mainly deals with the changes of observation when transferring the policy to a new environment. Many traditional approaches of domain adaptation in RL manage to learn a mapping function between the source and target domain in explicit or implicit ways. However, they typically require access to abundant data from the target domain. Besides, they often rely on visual clues to learn the mapping function and may fail when the source domain looks quite different from the target domain. To address these problems, we propose a novel framework Online Prototype Alignment (OPA) to learn the mapping function based on the functional similarity of elements and is able to achieve the few-shot policy transfer within only several episodes. The key insight of OPA is to introduce an exploration mechanism that can interact with the unseen elements of the target domain in an efficient and purposeful manner, and then connect them with the seen elements in the source domain according to their functionalities (instead of visual clues). Experimental results show that when the target domain looks visually different from the source domain, OPA can achieve better transfer performance even with much fewer samples from the target domain, outperforming prior methods.

Sequential recommendation (SR) models capture continuously observed behavior, but a returning user may have no interactions for months or years. We define this setting as Zero-Observation Reactivation: the user has a pre-gap history, while the platform observes no behavioral signals during a macro-gap Delta t. Under a chronologically aligned Gap-Synthesize Protocol on three Amazon datasets (Video Games, CDs & Vinyl, and Movies & TV), Hit@10 decreases monotonically across the evaluated gap buckets and reaches its lowest level beyond one year. The pattern appears across recurrent, unidirectional, and bidirectional SR backbones. We propose DeltaGate, a lightweight output-layer plugin that keeps the backbone frozen and routes each representation dimension between the personalized history and a learned, zero-initialized global prior. The gate is conditioned jointly on Delta t and the personalized representation. In a controlled diagnostic, we hold the personalized representation fixed and vary Delta t to isolate the trained gate's response to the gap input. In the >365d Video Games bucket, DG-SASRec reaches 0.047 Hit@10 versus 0.031 for SASRec, while DG-BERT4Rec reaches 0.046 versus 0.025 for BERT4Rec, with 66K trainable parameters (2--4% overhead). End-to-end retraining attains higher absolute accuracy but changes the backbone embeddings; the frozen plugin preserves zero backbone drift, uses about 40x fewer trainable parameters, and retains observable dimension-wise routing. The source code is available at https://github.com/jdding/DeltaGate.

The Copernicus Sentinel-2 program now provides multispectral images at a global scale with a high revisit rate. In this paper we explore the usage of convolutional neural networks for urban change detection using such multispectral images. We first present the new change detection dataset that was used for training the proposed networks, which will be openly available to serve as a benchmark. The Onera Satellite Change Detection (OSCD) dataset is composed of pairs of multispectral aerial images, and the changes were manually annotated at pixel level. We then propose two architectures to detect changes, Siamese and Early Fusion, and compare the impact of using different numbers of spectral channels as inputs. These architectures are trained from scratch using the provided dataset.

Many social and environmental phenomena are associated with macroscopic changes in the built environment, captured by satellite imagery on a global scale and with daily temporal resolution. While widely used for prediction, these images and especially image sequences remain underutilized for causal inference, especially in the context of randomized controlled trials (RCTs), where causal identification is established by design. In this paper, we develop and compare a set of general tools for analyzing Conditional Average Treatment Effects (CATEs) from temporal satellite data that can be applied to any RCT where geographical identifiers are available. Through a simulation study, we analyze different modeling strategies for estimating CATE in sequences of satellite images. We find that image sequence representation models with more parameters generally yield a greater ability to detect heterogeneity. To explore the role of model and data choice in practice, we apply the approaches to two influential RCTs -- Banerjee et al. (2015), a poverty study in Cusco, Peru, and Bolsen et al. (2014), a water conservation experiment in Georgia, USA. We benchmark our image sequence models against image-only, tabular-only, and combined image-tabular data sources, summarizing practical implications for investigators in a multivariate analysis. Land cover classifications over satellite images facilitate interpretation of what image features drive heterogeneity. We also show robustness to data and model choice of satellite-based generalization of the RCT results to larger geographical areas outside the original. Overall, this paper shows how satellite sequence data can be incorporated into the analysis of RCTs, and provides evidence about the implications of data, model, and evaluation metric choice for causal analysis.

Large language model agents are commonly trained through reinforcement learning with sparse trajectory-level rewards, which offer limited guidance on how strongly individual tokens should be updated. On-Policy Self-Distillation (OPSD) addresses this by re-scoring generated tokens under a privileged replay view to obtain dense, token-level supervision. However, we identify a confounding issue: the resulting support may reflect both the privileged information contained in the replay view and score shifts induced by the replay scaffold, making it difficult to attribute the support specifically to that information. This issue is especially pronounced when future environment observations serve as privileged information, since replaying them requires reconstructing an extended scaffold that itself perturbs token scores. To resolve this confounding, we propose Observation-Calibrated Self-Distillation (OCSD), which contrasts two structurally matched replay views, Full and Observation-Ablated, differing only in whether the actual future observation is present, to derive an observation residual that discounts score changes shared by the replay scaffold. OCSD then applies this residual to modulate token-level GRPO updates at high-uncertainty steps, while preserving the trajectory-level update direction. Experiments on ALFWorld, WebShop, and Search-QA across three Qwen3 model scales show that OCSD consistently outperforms strong baselines. Diagnostic analyses further confirm that the calibrated residual aligns better with local environment feedback. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/yiy1x/OCSD.

Low latent prediction error does not establish that a world model distinguishes the consequences of its actions. We introduce an evaluation protocol that traces the same intervention through simulator state, raster observations, target embeddings, and predictor outputs. Exact simulator-state forks in a controlled deformable-physics testbed reveal distinct bottlenecks. Changed commands alter particle motion, yet 41.5% of one-step raster pairs are identical. Observation loss is not the whole explanation: among 579 high-visibility counterfactuals, median predictor-to-target response is 0.0051 and 0.0217 across two seeds, falling to 0.0027 and 0.0116 after variance normalization. An isotropic state perturbation matched to the target counterfactual embedding shift produces 190x and 53x larger predictor changes on the same visible pairs, isolating action-path under-use rather than a dead or globally shrunk predictor. MSE-only training gives 8.36x lower 10-step latent error in matched seeds, but in spectrally concentrated spaces; one VICReg target encoder is also strongly concentrated, so neither error nor rank alone certifies physical state. Finally, stiffness remains near chance even from full-resolution rasters and mechanical state while privileged material parameters decode perfectly, indicating weak identifiability under this excitation rather than encoder discard. These results motivate auditing physical effect, observation visibility, representation geometry, and action dependence separately.

Physical-field reconstruction and forecasting depend on both measurement density and spatial layout, yet evaluation under a single observation pattern does not characterize performance when that pattern changes. We introduce PDE-OBS, an integrated benchmarking platform spanning numerical data generation, model training, and inference and evaluation under varying observation conditions. It combines 560,000 fields and trajectories from seven partial differential equation families with configurable observation operators and seven adapted baseline methods for stationary reconstruction and short-horizon forecasting. Separating observation construction from physical records allows users to specify parameterized patterns and deterministic mixtures for training and testing while preserving prediction targets and data splits. The evaluation protocol uses references trained for each test pattern to compare models on identical test observations and targets, alongside equal-count groups for spatial-layout comparisons. On a 14,000-record subset, we evaluate 441 trained models under nine test patterns, yielding 3,969 evaluations. Mean cross-pattern error exceeds mean matched-pattern error in all 49 PDE-method pairs, and this finding persists in a configuration-matched subset of 117 models. Denser test observations do not consistently reduce error for a fixed model. Mixed-pattern training on five completed pairs reduces large single-pattern transfer errors, although destination-trained references usually remain more accurate. Together, the benchmark and findings support systematic evaluation of observation-pattern sensitivity and provide a reusable workflow for developing methods under changing measurement conditions. Code: https://github.com/ru1ch3n/PDE-OBS.

Hierarchical structures are popular in recent vision transformers, however, they require sophisticated designs and massive datasets to work well. In this paper, we explore the idea of nesting basic local transformers on non-overlapping image blocks and aggregating them in a hierarchical way. We find that the block aggregation function plays a critical role in enabling cross-block non-local information communication. This observation leads us to design a simplified architecture that requires minor code changes upon the original vision transformer. The benefits of the proposed judiciously-selected design are threefold: (1) NesT converges faster and requires much less training data to achieve good generalization on both ImageNet and small datasets like CIFAR; (2) when extending our key ideas to image generation, NesT leads to a strong decoder that is 8times faster than previous transformer-based generators; and (3) we show that decoupling the feature learning and abstraction processes via this nested hierarchy in our design enables constructing a novel method (named GradCAT) for visually interpreting the learned model. Source code is available https://github.com/google-research/nested-transformer.

Manipulating a Rubik's Cube with a single dexterous hand is a challenging test of sustained, contact-rich control: the hand must execute successive layer turns while keeping the cube secure. Each turn requires some fingers to support the cube while others push a moving layer, release contact, and reset for the next move. To learn this coordination, we introduce FINGR (Future-supervised Interaction Network with Geometric Representations), a policy that combines finger-relative geometry with future interaction prediction. A shared point encoder expresses the cube relative to each fingertip and aggregates its points without depending on cubie indexing. Learned future tokens share the observation encoder and receive supervision for contact-force changes, layer-turn progress, and finger joint displacement at multiple time scales. The resulting representation conditions a flow policy that directly generates finger actions. On a real dexterous hand, our policy achieves 99.0% success over 300 turn attempts, compared with 79.7% for the base flow policy. Integrated with grasping and table-assisted regrasping, the policy solves all ten scrambled 2times2times2 cubes in a mean complete-system time of approximately 137 seconds. The project website is available at https://www.lyt0112.com/projects/FINGR

Robot policies often convert sensing and control into fixed-rate observation-action sequences, leaving physical time implicit in sequence position. This assumption breaks when observation rates or delays vary, or when inference latency changes. We introduce Chronos Policy, which makes physical time explicit by conditioning on observation capture times and desired action execution times. We study two ways to incorporate time into a diffusion transformer: adding timestamp embeddings to token features, or encoding physical time in positional encoding through time-aware rotary positional encodings (time-aware RoPE). We find that time-aware RoPE is more robust, allowing attention to depend directly on physical time while keeping token content unchanged. During training, we temporally randomize which observations are sampled and when the action chunk begins, exposing the policy to a wider range of sensing and execution schedules that may occur during deployments. This also enables learning from asynchronous, multi-rate data without forcing all measurements onto a fixed temporal grid. Across simulation and real-world experiments, Chronos Policy improves performance on dynamic tasks, where observation-to-action timing is critical, and on multisensory tasks, where the relative timing between observations matters. On standard quasi-static tasks, it preserves nominal performance while improving robustness to changes in sensing and inference timing.

This monograph develops a unified account of training and inference in Power Law Decoder Representation language models (PLDR-LLMs). Exact finite work identities decompose changes in the absolute energy of the row-centered learned map into parameter contributions, signed interactions, and numerical observation defects. Positive affine blocking retains restarts at the row-constant face, while the augmented AdamW state supplies the complete dynamical description. Predictive renormalization acts on the complete conditional training law for a single pass over distinct corpus target blocks, retaining optimizer memory, remaining data, schedule, and numerical policy. Autonomous reductions require closure; approximate reductions carry successor and emission errors. Finite-population covariance, matched physical clocks, matrix fluxes, and signed temporal energy connect row dynamics to model-wide observations. Absolute row collapse, relative row concentration, operator stabilization, and predictive accuracy are distinguished. Experiments reveal observer and optimizer dependence, reject the tested autonomous row-state candidates, and support finite conditional prediction and state-specific operator reduction. Independent single-pass families exhibit moving finite fluctuation regions without establishing a thermodynamic critical class. Conditional symmetry, head limits, covariance flows, and readout error budgets specify assumptions needed to transfer scaling laws to inference. The theory separates exact identities, conditional dynamical claims, and finite empirical findings, with proofs, selected formal checks, and compact numerical evidence.

Reinforcement learning is increasingly used to post-train vision-language models for image-to-code generation, such as generating SVG code from a reference image, by optimizing rewards computed from the final rendered output. However, relying on a single terminal reward provides sparse feedback that is poorly aligned with the contribution of individual tokens. A generated program may contain operations that accurately reproduce some parts of the target image alongside others that introduce errors, yet all tokens are trained from the same final outcome. We observe that many intermediate code prefixes are not only executable, but already produce meaningful partial renders that reflect progress toward the target. This property provides a natural source of denser supervision during generation. Based on this observation, we introduce IR4RL, an RL framework with a token-level render-progress reward that turns changes between intermediate renders into localized feedback for the generated sequence. We evaluate our approach on Image-to-SVG and Image-to-TikZ generation. Across both tasks, our method improves over supervised fine-tuning and standard GRPO, yielding new state-of-the-art open-source models. This shows that intermediate rendering provides a simple and effective source of process supervision for RL post-training of image-to-code models.

Robotic manipulation is not merely observation-to-action generation, but the realization of task-specified state changes in the physical world. Existing vision-language-action (VLA) methods directly learn observation-to-action mappings, imposing a substantial learning burden due to the gap between semantic understanding and action execution. Although world-action models (WAMs) improve control through future prediction, modeling complete future states wastes capacity on static appearance and action-irrelevant changes. We propose Vision-Language-Delta-Action (VLDA), a paradigm that reformulates full future prediction as compact actionable transition modeling. Its core is a compact Delta variable that captures latent world-state changes, serving as an interface between vision-language understanding and action generation. VLDA learns Delta through a unified objective composed of the Local Transition Filter (LT-Filter) and Global Transition Anchor (GT-Anchor). LT-Filter captures task-relevant manipulation-centric changes while suppressing static reconstruction biases. GT-Anchor provides coarse future-level regularization to preserve the overall direction of state changes. Delta-Driven Action Refinement (DDAR) further grounds Delta in the action manifold and injects it as a structured seed to guide action denoising. We implement VLDA within LoongForge, an open-source training framework for large-scale foundation and embodied models, using its modular and distributed infrastructure for unified two-stage optimization. Experiments show that VLDA improves long-horizon consistency, robustness, and generalization, validating actionable Delta as an alternative to direct action prediction and full future-state modeling.

Learning-based manipulation policies have made substantial progress in real-world robot manipulation, particularly for short-horizon action generation. However, deployment in open workspaces remains fragile under unexpected local scene dynamics, such as moving objects, transient occlusions, or disturbances near the intended motion. Existing runtime monitors often rely on global observation anomalies, policy uncertainty, or frame-level visual changes, and struggle to distinguish task-relevant execution risk from benign visual variation. We introduce PATCH, an action-chunk-conditioned latent patch innovation monitor for deployment-time intervention. Given the active action chunk, PATCH defines a projected execution corridor, predicts latent patch evolution inside it, and accumulates persistent residuals unexplained by the robot's own motion. These residuals form a localized intervention signal that allows PATCH-Router to pause execution, select an available recovery source, and resume the original policy once localized innovation subsides. Experiments on real robot rollout data show that PATCH produces more stable and context-relevant triggers than competing runtime monitors. Real-robot deployment further demonstrates monitor-driven intervention and policy resumption for disturbance-aware manipulation. Project Page: https://yananzhou5555.github.io/PATCH/.

Generating music that temporally aligns with video events is challenging for existing text-to-music models, which lack fine-grained temporal control. We introduce V2M-Zero, a zero-pair video-to-music generation approach that outputs time-aligned music for video. Our method is motivated by a key observation: temporal synchronization requires matching when and how much change occurs, not what changes. While musical and visual events differ semantically, they exhibit shared temporal structure that can be captured independently within each modality. We capture this structure through event curves computed from intra-modal similarity using pretrained music and video encoders. By measuring temporal change within each modality independently, these curves provide comparable representations across modalities. This enables a simple training strategy: fine-tune a text-to-music model on music-event curves, then substitute video-event curves at inference without cross-modal training or paired data. Across OES-Pub, MovieGenBench-Music, and AIST++, V2M-Zero achieves substantial gains over paired-data baselines: 5-21% higher audio quality, 13-15% better semantic alignment, 21-52% improved temporal synchronization, and 28% higher beat alignment on dance videos. We find similar results via a large crowd-source subjective listening test. Overall, our results validate that temporal alignment through within-modality features, rather than paired cross-modal supervision, is effective for video-to-music generation. Results are available at https://genjib.github.io/v2m_zero/

Embodied agents in household environments must plan under partial observation: they need to remember objects, track state changes, and recover when actions fail. Existing benchmarks only partially test this ability. Egocentric video datasets capture realistic human activities but remain passive, while interactive simulators support execution but rely on synthetic scenes and hand-crafted dynamics, introducing a sim-to-real gap and often assuming fully observable state. We introduce Ego2World, an executable benchmark that turns egocentric cooking videos into executable symbolic worlds governed by graph-transition rules. Built on HD-EPIC, Ego2World derives reusable transition rules from video annotations and executes them in a hidden symbolic world graph. During evaluation, the simulator maintains the hidden world graph, while the agent plans over its own partial belief graph using only local observations and execution feedback. This separation forces agents to update memory and replan without observing the true world state. Experiments show that action-overlap scores overestimate physical-state success, and that persistent belief memory improves task completion while reducing repeated visual exploration -- suggesting that belief maintenance should be a first-class target of embodied-agent evaluation.

Learning predictive world models from raw visual observations is a central challenge in reinforcement learning (RL), especially for robotics and continuous control. Conventional model-based RL frameworks directly condition future predictions on absolute actions, which makes optimization unstable: the optimal action distributions are task-dependent, unknown a priori, and often lead to oscillatory or inefficient control. To address this, we introduce the Residual-Action World Model (ResWM), a new framework that reformulates the control variable from absolute actions to residual actions -- incremental adjustments relative to the previous step. This design aligns with the inherent smoothness of real-world control, reduces the effective search space, and stabilizes long-horizon planning. To further strengthen the representation, we propose an Observation Difference Encoder that explicitly models the changes between adjacent frames, yielding compact latent dynamics that are naturally coupled with residual actions. ResWM is integrated into a Dreamer-style latent dynamics model with minimal modifications and no extra hyperparameters. Both imagination rollouts and policy optimization are conducted in the residual-action space, enabling smoother exploration, lower control variance, and more reliable planning. Empirical results on the DeepMind Control Suite demonstrate that ResWM achieves consistent improvements in sample efficiency, asymptotic returns, and control smoothness, significantly surpassing strong baselines such as Dreamer and TD-MPC. Beyond performance, ResWM produces more stable and energy-efficient action trajectories, a property critical for robotic systems deployed in real-world environments. These findings suggest that residual action modeling provides a simple yet powerful principle for bridging algorithmic advances in RL with the practical requirements of robotics.

Driver alerting from dashcam video requires sequential decision-making under partial observability: a system must decide not only whether a scene is risky, but also when the evidence is sufficient to warn. Most existing accident anticipation models output a binary risk score, leaving ambiguous scenes to be handled by thresholding. We propose VLAlert, a vision-language alerting framework that casts warning generation as a tri-action policy over SILENT, OBSERVE, and ALERT. The OBSERVE action acts as an internal evidence-gathering decision that delays uncertain warnings and changes the next observation window, creating a lightweight perception-action loop for adaptive alerting. VLAlert uses Qwen3-VL-4B as a safety-evidence generator and pools hidden states from structured belief spans to form compact representations for danger estimation and policy prediction. We evaluate VLAlert on VLAlert-Bench, a unified per-tick benchmark from four real-world dashcam alert datasets, and further test transfer to held-out naturalistic ADAS takeover clips. On VLAlert-Bench validation, VLAlert achieves the highest deployment-oriented utility among tested baselines, with DAUS 0.4878 compared with 0.4752 for Open-BADAS, and improves AUROC, AP_tick, F1_t, and balanced accuracy from 0.610, 0.176, 0.276, and 0.581 to 0.689, 0.195, 0.297, and 0.648, respectively. On 221 held-out ADAS-TO-Critic clips, VLAlert improves R@5s from 74.2% to 88.7% and F1 from 0.585 to 0.686. These results indicate that adaptive observation and safety-focused VLM representations provide measurable gains for driver-facing alert decisions.

Moltbook is a social network where every participant is an AI agent. We analyze 1,312,238 posts, 6.7~million comments, and over 120,000 agent profiles across 5,400 communities, collected over 40 days (January 27 to March 9, 2026). We evaluate the platform through three layers. At the interaction layer, 91.4% of post authors never return to their own threads, 85.6% of conversations are flat (no reply ever receives a reply), the median time-to-first-comment is 55 seconds, and 97.3% of comments receive zero upvotes. Interaction reciprocity is 3.3%, compared to 22-60% on human platforms. An argumentation analysis finds that 64.6% of comment-to-post relations carry no argumentative connection. At the content layer, 97.9% of agents never post in a community matching their bio, 92.5% of communities contain every topic in roughly equal proportions, and over 80% of shared URLs point to the platform's own infrastructure. At the instruction layer, we use 41 Wayback Machine snapshots to identify six instruction changes during the observation window. Hard constraints (rate limit, content filters) produce immediate behavioral shifts. Soft guidance (``upvote good posts'', ``stay on topic'') is ignored until it becomes an explicit step in the executable checklist. The platform also poses technological risks. We document credential leaks (API keys, JWT tokens), 12,470 unique Ethereum addresses with 3,529 confirmed transaction histories, and attack discourse ranging from template-based SSH brute-forcing to multi-agent offensive security architectures. These persist unmoderated because the quality-filtering mechanisms are themselves non-functional. Moltbook is a socio-technical system where the technical layer responds to changes, but the social layer largely fails to emerge. The form of social media is reproduced in full. The function is absent.

Vision-language-action (VLA) models transfer semantic knowledge acquired through vision-language pretraining to robot control, achieving strong performance across various benchmarks. However, most VLAs directly map observations to demonstrated actions without explicit supervision of intermediate physical state changes, making them prone to overfitting observation-action correspondences. Some methods introduce intermediate reasoning or future-state prediction in language, visual, or latent spaces to guide action generation, but do not explicitly supervise the physical state transition itself. We therefore propose VLA-Δ, a general framework that uses physical changes between current and future states as explicit learning targets. To support this objective, we construct a large-scale pretraining dataset and derive physical state-transition annotations covering task-relevant semantics and visual motion changes, providing more direct supervision for continuous action generation. During inference, the model generates actions directly from current observations without additional inference overhead. VLA-Δ achieves performance competitive with the state of the art on LIBERO and RoboTwin, and outperforms π_{0.5} in real-robot experiments. Our code is available at https://github.com/ZJU-OmniAI/VLA-Delta

The dynamics of biomolecules are crucial for our understanding of their functioning in living systems. However, current 3D imaging techniques, such as cryogenic electron microscopy (cryo-EM), require freezing the sample, which limits the observation of their conformational changes in real time. The innovative liquid-phase electron microscopy (liquid-phase EM) technique allows molecules to be placed in the native liquid environment, providing a unique opportunity to observe their dynamics. In this paper, we propose TEMPOR, a Temporal Electron MicroscoPy Object Reconstruction algorithm for liquid-phase EM that leverages an implicit neural representation (INR) and a dynamical variational auto-encoder (DVAE) to recover time series of molecular structures. We demonstrate its advantages in recovering different motion dynamics from two simulated datasets, 7bcq and Cas9. To our knowledge, our work is the first attempt to directly recover 3D structures of a temporally-varying particle from liquid-phase EM movies. It provides a promising new approach for studying molecules' 3D dynamics in structural biology.

Obtaining reliable feedback from the environment is a fundamental capability for intelligent agents to evaluate the correctness of their actions and to accumulate reusable knowledge. However, most existing approaches rely on predefined measurements or fixed reward signals, which limits their applicability in open-ended and dynamic environments where new actions may require previously unknown forms of feedback. To address these limitations, this paper proposes an Actively Feedback Getting model, in which an AI agent proactively interacts with the environment to discover, screen, and verify feedback without relying on predefined measurements. Rather than assuming explicit feedback definitions, the proposed method exploits action-induced environmental differences to identify target feedback that is not specified in advance, based on the observation that actions inevitably produce measurable changes in the environment. In addition, a self-triggering mechanism, driven by internal objectives such as improved accuracy, precision, and efficiency, is introduced to autonomously plan and adjust actions, thereby enabling faster and more focused feedback acquisition without external commands. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed active approach significantly improves the efficiency and robustness of factor identification.

Autonomous web navigation remains challenging for LLM agents, and the strongest generalist systems rely on proprietary reasoning models whose inference cost is prohibitive for the repetitive tasks where such agents would be most useful. We argue this gap stems not from insufficient model capability but from agent architectures that fail to replicate three human cognitive advantages: selective attention to relevant page regions, persistent memory of website structure, and procedural fluency with common interaction patterns. We introduce WebChallenger, a web agent framework that addresses each gap through architecture design rather than model scale, built around PageMem: a structured page representation deterministically constructed from the DOM that exposes each page as a hierarchy of semantic sections with short summaries. On this shared substrate we build three mechanisms that mirror the three cognitive advantages: a divide-and-conquer observation pipeline that lets the agent skim section summaries and extract details only from task-relevant regions; a lightweight exploration and memory system that traverses each website once to build a reusable map of pages and element behaviors; and compound action workflows that collapse common multi-step interactions into single agent actions, handling partial state changes automatically. Because all three operate over PageMem, the framework generalizes across websites without site-specific adapters. Using off-the-shelf open-weight models without fine-tuning, our system achieves 56.3% on WebArena, 48.7% on VisualWebArena, 51.0% on Online-Mind2Web, and 70.9% on WorkArena, approaching frontier proprietary systems at a fraction of the cost. Our code is released at https://github.com/jayoohwang1/webchallenger

It is difficult to precisely annotate object instances and their semantics in 3D space, and as such, synthetic data are extensively used for these tasks, e.g., category-level 6D object pose and size estimation. However, the easy annotations in synthetic domains bring the downside effect of synthetic-to-real (Sim2Real) domain gap. In this work, we aim to address this issue in the task setting of Sim2Real, unsupervised domain adaptation for category-level 6D object pose and size estimation. We propose a method that is built upon a novel Deep Prior Deformation Network, shortened as DPDN. DPDN learns to deform features of categorical shape priors to match those of object observations, and is thus able to establish deep correspondence in the feature space for direct regression of object poses and sizes. To reduce the Sim2Real domain gap, we formulate a novel self-supervised objective upon DPDN via consistency learning; more specifically, we apply two rigid transformations to each object observation in parallel, and feed them into DPDN respectively to yield dual sets of predictions; on top of the parallel learning, an inter-consistency term is employed to keep cross consistency between dual predictions for improving the sensitivity of DPDN to pose changes, while individual intra-consistency ones are used to enforce self-adaptation within each learning itself. We train DPDN on both training sets of the synthetic CAMERA25 and real-world REAL275 datasets; our results outperform the existing methods on REAL275 test set under both the unsupervised and supervised settings. Ablation studies also verify the efficacy of our designs. Our code is released publicly at https://github.com/JiehongLin/Self-DPDN.

Earth observation is a fundamental tool for monitoring the evolution of land use in specific areas of interest. Observing and precisely defining change, in this context, requires both time-series data and pixel-wise segmentations. To that end, we propose the DynamicEarthNet dataset that consists of daily, multi-spectral satellite observations of 75 selected areas of interest distributed over the globe with imagery from Planet Labs. These observations are paired with pixel-wise monthly semantic segmentation labels of 7 land use and land cover (LULC) classes. DynamicEarthNet is the first dataset that provides this unique combination of daily measurements and high-quality labels. In our experiments, we compare several established baselines that either utilize the daily observations as additional training data (semi-supervised learning) or multiple observations at once (spatio-temporal learning) as a point of reference for future research. Finally, we propose a new evaluation metric SCS that addresses the specific challenges associated with time-series semantic change segmentation. The data is available at: https://mediatum.ub.tum.de/1650201.

Visual generation is evolving from generative models used through a single invocation into agentic control processes that can plan, select tools, inspect intermediate synthesized outputs, revise failures, and reuse prior experience. In most existing systems, the controller is an LLM or VLM, while visual generation models serve as tools or executors. However, existing work lacks a consistent criterion for determining when a generation system becomes agentic. Planning depth, tool use, multi-role collaboration, and reinforcement learning are often treated as evidence of agenticity, even though none of them necessarily determines which generation decisions the controller can make. We organize the field according to what the controller can directly control in the generation process. At L1 Conditioning Control, the controller prepares the input to a predetermined generator but does not control which visual operation is executed. At L2 Execution Control, it selects and invokes actual generation, editing, rendering, or other content-modifying operations. At L3 Outcome-Adaptive Control, it observes an intermediate outcome and uses that observation to change a subsequent operation within the current task. At L4 Experience-Adaptive Control, it retains experience from completed tasks and uses that experience to change decisions on future tasks. L0 Fixed Support separately denotes generators, editors, evaluators, reward models, benchmarks, and fixed pipelines without a deployed controller that makes generation-level decisions. These levels describe a progressively broader decision-making scope rather than model size, system complexity, output quality, tool or role count, or training method. Applying this framework across image, video, editing, 3D, world, slide, and user-interface generation reveals how controller capabilities have evolved and how their mechanisms are distributed across levels.

Pretrained world action models (WAMs) provide generalist capabilities across diverse robotic manipulation tasks, yet improving target-task performance to an expert level without degrading pretrained skills remains challenging. We explore on-policy distillation (OPD) for WAMs and introduce WAM-OPD. WAM-OPD inherits the advantage of OPD methods that transfer task-specific teacher knowledge under the student's own induced distribution, rather than directly fitting the student to a narrow task-specific data distribution. However, in closed-loop manipulation, the observation histories change as the student policy evolves, requiring fresh environment rollouts to remain on-policy. Applying OPD to WAMs entails repeated data collection, which is costly even in simulation and often impractical on real robots. To avoid repeated environment rollouts during distillation, we introduce prefix-weighted trajectory replay (PWTR). PWTR uses a fixed trajectory pool composed primarily of initial-student rollouts, supplemented with task-specific teacher rollouts to broaden trajectory coverage. For each trajectory replayed from this pool, PWTR conditions the current policy on successive stored histories to generate fresh denoising paths, along which the task-specific teacher provides supervision. Although these denoising paths are refreshed as the policy evolves, the replayed environment trajectories remain fixed. PWTR therefore reweights per-decision distillation losses using proxy importance weights derived from path scores accumulated over the trajectory prefix preceding each decision to mitigate the resulting shift in the history distribution. Simulated and real-world experiments demonstrate task adaptation without additional environment interaction during distillation. In both settings, WAM-OPD improves target-task performance while retaining near-initial performance on tasks excluded from adaptation.

AI Agents are changing the way work gets done, both in consumer and enterprise domains. However, the design patterns and architectures to build highly capable agents or multi-agent systems are still developing, and the understanding of the implication of various design choices and algorithms is still evolving. In this paper, we present our work on building a novel web agent, Agent-E Our code is available at \url{https://github.com/EmergenceAI/Agent-E}. Agent-E introduces numerous architectural improvements over prior state-of-the-art web agents such as hierarchical architecture, flexible DOM distillation and denoising method, and the concept of change observation to guide the agent towards more accurate performance. We first present the results of an evaluation of Agent-E on WebVoyager benchmark dataset and show that Agent-E beats other SOTA text and multi-modal web agents on this benchmark in most categories by 10-30\%. We then synthesize our learnings from the development of Agent-E into general design principles for developing agentic systems. These include the use of domain-specific primitive skills, the importance of distillation and de-noising of environmental observations, the advantages of a hierarchical architecture, and the role of agentic self-improvement to enhance agent efficiency and efficacy as the agent gathers experience.

The KV-cache is the right memory for datacenters but the wrong memory for robots. Datacenter inference batches many short requests and resets them, amortizing an attention cache across a crowd. Embodied agents instead run one long, non-resetting episode on bandwidth-limited edge hardware, where high-bandwidth memory and flash are scarce, flash has finite write endurance, and memory writes rather than compute can become the binding constraint. AURA-Mem (Action-Utility Recurrent Adaptive Memory) targets this regime. It wraps a frozen vision-language-action backbone with a constant-size recurrent memory and a learned gate that writes only when the current observation would change the next action: memory that knows when to stay silent. Unlike reconstruction-based memory, the gate is trained directly against a closed-loop action-error signal. Its inference state is fixed at 4,224 bytes regardless of horizon, while a KV-cache grows to 6,061 times larger at 100,000 steps. On a controlled synthetic benchmark, AURA-Mem matches the best O(1) baseline in accuracy while using 5.19-6.13 times fewer writes, and up to 9.19 times fewer writes on easier configurations. Budget-matched random and periodic schedules do not recover this gain, isolating the benefit to the action-surprise signal. On a trained closed-loop OpenVLA-OFT 7B panel on LIBERO-Long (n=60 episodes per arm), the gate does not hurt success: AURA-Mem matches the ungated base policy (0.233) and slightly exceeds an always-write KV arm (0.217), while using 7.0 times fewer writes and constant memory. We also instantiate an approximate-information-state value-loss bound as a methodology demonstration; at this scale, the bound is vacuous rather than a guarantee.

Video segmentation models maintain object identities by carrying instance information across frames. Under prolonged occlusion, reappearance, or interactions between similar instances, however, an unreliable update can overwrite a valid history and cause persistent identity drift. We introduce POSReasoner, a trainable, plug-and-play framework that explicitly decides when an observation should change an object's state. Each persistent state records identity, confidence, and absence history. A sparse state-observation graph supports Propose-Verify reasoning: provisional associations are revisited using object history, predicted presence, and competition among identities. The verified decisions determine whether to retain, update, reactivate, or suppress each state, while a learned gate controls the evidence written back to memory. Only verified transitions update the persistent state used in subsequent frames. POSReasoner uses standard video annotations and keeps the base model frozen, enabling integration with diverse VOS and VIS architectures. Experiments across long-term VOS and VIS benchmarks show consistent improvements over strong baselines, with the largest gains under occlusion and object reappearance.

Change detection is an important tool for long-term earth observation missions. It takes bi-temporal images as input and predicts "where" the change has occurred. Different from other dense prediction tasks, a meaningful consideration for change detection is the interaction between bi-temporal features. With this motivation, in this paper we propose a novel general change detection architecture, MetaChanger, which includes a series of alternative interaction layers in the feature extractor. To verify the effectiveness of MetaChanger, we propose two derived models, ChangerAD and ChangerEx with simple interaction strategies: Aggregation-Distribution (AD) and "exchange". AD is abstracted from some complex interaction methods, and "exchange" is a completely parameter\&computation-free operation by exchanging bi-temporal features. In addition, for better alignment of bi-temporal features, we propose a flow dual-alignment fusion (FDAF) module which allows interactive alignment and feature fusion. Crucially, we observe Changer series models achieve competitive performance on different scale change detection datasets. Further, our proposed ChangerAD and ChangerEx could serve as a starting baseline for future MetaChanger design.

Online scene change detection requires integrating incoming observations to determine which regions have changed relative to a reference scene. We update change beliefs as new images arrive using generalised Bayesian evidence fusion. However, the prior probability of change and evidence models are unknown beforehand, and numerical Bayesian inference can be costly. We address these challenges by learning offline from automatic edits to a reference 3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS) model. These edits generate labelled training views without manual annotations. Together with unchanged reference observations, they provide supervision for learning scene-specific evidence models and estimating the effective pixel prior and response statistics. Online prediction combines current evidence with historical support, while closed-form local Bayes factors, parameterized by the learned response statistics, update an accumulated 3D Gaussian field. Object-guided refinement produces the final change masks. Our method achieves state-of-the-art accuracy on PASLCD and CCS3D, with 67.64% and 75.82% mIoU, respectively. On PASLCD, the complete pipeline runs at 17.2\,FPS over complete query sequences, the fastest among the evaluated online methods. Project page: https://changruizhu96.github.io/work/lego-scd/

We present results of the long-term multi-wavelength study of optical, UV and X-ray variability of the nearby changing-look (CL) Seyfert NGC 1566 observed with the Swift Observatory and the MASTER Global Robotic Network from 2007 to 2019. We started spectral observations with South African Astronomical Observatory 1.9-m telescope soon after the brightening was discovered in July 2018 and present here the data for the interval between Aug. 2018 to Sep. 2019. This paper concentrates on the remarkable post-maximum behaviour after July 2018 when all bands decreased with some fluctuations. We observed three significant re-brightenings in the post-maximum period during 17 Nov. 2018 - 10 Jan. 2019, 29 Apr. - 19 Jun. 2019 and 27 Jul.- 6 Aug. 2019. An X-ray flux minimum occurred in Mar. 2019. The UV minimum occurred about 3 months later. It was accompanied by a decrease of the Luv/Lx ratio. New post-maximum spectra covering (31 Nov. 2018 - 23 Sep. 2019) show dramatic changes compared to 2 Aug. 2018, with fading of the broad lines and [Fe X]6374 until Mar. 2019. These lines became somewhat brighter in Aug.-Sep. 2019. Effectively, two CL states were observed for this object: changing to type 1.2 and then returning to the low state as a type 1.8 Sy. We suggest that the changes are due mostly to fluctuations in the energy generation. The estimated Eddington ratios are about 0.055% for minimum in 2014 and 2.8% for maximum in 2018.

Real-world deployment of machine learning models is challenging because data evolves over time. While no model can work when data evolves in an arbitrary fashion, if there is some pattern to these changes, we might be able to design methods to address it. This paper addresses situations when data evolves gradually. We introduce a time-varying propensity score that can detect gradual shifts in the distribution of data which allows us to selectively sample past data to update the model -- not just similar data from the past like that of a standard propensity score but also data that evolved in a similar fashion in the past. The time-varying propensity score is quite general: we demonstrate different ways of implementing it and evaluate it on a variety of problems ranging from supervised learning (e.g., image classification problems) where data undergoes a sequence of gradual shifts, to reinforcement learning tasks (e.g., robotic manipulation and continuous control) where data shifts as the policy or the task changes.

Observational studies of causal effects require adjustment for confounding factors. In the tabular setting, where these factors are well-defined, separate random variables, the effect of confounding is well understood. However, in public policy, ecology, and in medicine, decisions are often made in non-tabular settings, informed by patterns or objects detected in images (e.g., maps, satellite or tomography imagery). Using such imagery for causal inference presents an opportunity because objects in the image may be related to the treatment and outcome of interest. In these cases, we rely on the images to adjust for confounding but observed data do not directly label the existence of the important objects. Motivated by real-world applications, we formalize this challenge, how it can be handled, and what conditions are sufficient to identify and estimate causal effects. We analyze finite-sample performance using simulation experiments, estimating effects using a propensity adjustment algorithm that employs a machine learning model to estimate the image confounding. Our experiments also examine sensitivity to misspecification of the image pattern mechanism. Finally, we use our methodology to estimate the effects of policy interventions on poverty in African communities from satellite imagery.

Scientific discovery often begins with an unexpected observation that prompts a new research question. In a world with altered physical laws, can large language models (LLMs) notice unexpected behavior, such as heavier objects falling more slowly, and discover the law through experiments without being told what to investigate? To evaluate this ability, we introduce LongChang, an automated framework that creates simulated worlds with altered physics, where one or more laws differ from ordinary physics. The evaluated LLMs act as explorers, manipulating objects and building tools to investigate their own questions without research tasks or hints about these laws. Separate LLM agents generate and review scenes, review tool designs, and evaluate reports for correctness and experimental support using the altered physical laws and exploration records. These records guide scene evolution for further exploration, allowing the full cycle to run without human intervention. Among 12 LLMs, GPT-6-Astra achieves a discovery rate of 16.7%, while the other 11 score 0%. The exploration records reveal uninvestigated anomalies and only partial identification of the altered physical laws.

We study nonlinear filtering with misspecified initial distributions and dynamics, but a correctly specified observation model. Observations are treated as a random process generated by the true model, rather than as fixed realizations, and both the correct filter and the misspecified filter are analyzed under this common observation law. Our main result is a Bayesian total variation balance identity for the expected change in total variation distance under a Bayesian update: a covariance term minus a non-negative remainder. The identity characterizes conditional and averaged update non-expansivity. Combined with prediction contraction, it yields finite-time bounds separating the initialization error from accumulated dynamical discrepancies, while allowing expansive updates. When the averaged updates are non-expansive and a uniform joint prediction--update coefficient is less than one, a persistent dynamical misspecification yields an asymptotic error bound proportional to the one-step discrepancy. When the conditional updates are non-expansive, we characterize an accumulated joint contraction that implies almost-sure and \(L^1\) coalescence of the true and misspecified filters. Finally, we verify update non-expansivity for scalar Gaussian predictive laws under a variance-ordering condition and, separately, derive explicit prediction contraction bounds for truncated kernels and bounded transition functions with elliptically symmetric noise.

Observational studies require adjustment for confounding factors that are correlated with both the treatment and outcome. In the setting where the observed variables are tabular quantities such as average income in a neighborhood, tools have been developed for addressing such confounding. However, in many parts of the developing world, features about local communities may be scarce. In this context, satellite imagery can play an important role, serving as a proxy for the confounding variables otherwise unobserved. In this paper, we study confounder adjustment in this non-tabular setting, where patterns or objects found in satellite images contribute to the confounder bias. Using the evaluation of anti-poverty aid programs in Africa as our running example, we formalize the challenge of performing causal adjustment with such unstructured data -- what conditions are sufficient to identify causal effects, how to perform estimation, and how to quantify the ways in which certain aspects of the unstructured image object are most predictive of the treatment decision. Via simulation, we also explore the sensitivity of satellite image-based observational inference to image resolution and to misspecification of the image-associated confounder. Finally, we apply these tools in estimating the effect of anti-poverty interventions in African communities from satellite imagery.

Early warning signals have been proposed to forecast the possibility of a critical transition, such as the eutrophication of a lake, the collapse of a coral reef, or the end of a glacial period. Because such transitions often unfold on temporal and spatial scales that can be difficult to approach by experimental manipulation, research has often relied on historical observations as a source of natural experiments. Here we examine a critical difference between selecting systems for study based on the fact that we have observed a critical transition and those systems for which we wish to forecast the approach of a transition. This difference arises by conditionally selecting systems known to experience a transition of some sort and failing to account for the bias this introduces -- a statistical error often known as the Prosecutor's Fallacy. By analysing simulated systems that have experienced transitions purely by chance, we reveal an elevated rate of false positives in common warning signal statistics. We further demonstrate a model-based approach that is less subject to this bias than these more commonly used summary statistics. We note that experimental studies with replicates avoid this pitfall entirely.

Redshift drift effect, an observational probe that indenpendent of cosmological models, presents unique applications in specific cosmological epoch. By quantifying redshift drift signal , researchers can determine the rate of the Universe's accelerated expansion and impose constraints on cosmological models and parameters. This study evaluates the precision in cosmological parameters estimation derived from this signal via HI 21cm signal, that observed by the Square Kilometre Array (SKA) telescope, with spectral resolutions of 0.001 Hz and 0.002 Hz over an observational period of Delta T = 0.5 year, utilizing two established techniques: the canonical redshift drift and the differential redshift drift method. The primary objective of this project is to ascertain the rate of cosmic acceleration and establish a solid foundation for real-time cosmology. The results reveal that both the two methods impose highly precise constraints on cosmological parameters, with accuracy reaching the level of millimeter per second (mm/s) or better. However, the canonical method provides relatively less stringent compared to the differential approach. Furthermore, when solely constraining the matter density parameter Omega_m, the strategy can be adapted to the canonical method. Nonetheless, the differential method exhibits clear advantages when simultaneously constraining the matter density parameter Omega_m and the equation of state of dark energy. These findings validate SKA's capability in detecting redshift drift and refining observational cosmology and indicates the effect can offer superior diagnostic capabilities compared to other techniques, provided that appropriate observational equipment or sufficient observational time is employed.

Trajectory prediction plays an important role in various applications, including autonomous driving, robotics, and scene understanding. Existing approaches mainly focus on developing compact neural networks to increase prediction precision on public datasets, typically employing a standardized input duration. However, a notable issue arises when these models are evaluated with varying observation lengths, leading to a significant performance drop, a phenomenon we term the Observation Length Shift. To address this issue, we introduce a general and effective framework, the FlexiLength Network (FLN), to enhance the robustness of existing trajectory prediction techniques against varying observation periods. Specifically, FLN integrates trajectory data with diverse observation lengths, incorporates FlexiLength Calibration (FLC) to acquire temporal invariant representations, and employs FlexiLength Adaptation (FLA) to further refine these representations for more accurate future trajectory predictions. Comprehensive experiments on multiple datasets, ie, ETH/UCY, nuScenes, and Argoverse 1, demonstrate the effectiveness and flexibility of our proposed FLN framework.

Detecting object-level changes between two images across possibly different views is a core task in many applications that involve visual inspection or camera surveillance. Existing change-detection approaches suffer from three major limitations: (1) lack of evaluation on image pairs that contain no changes, leading to unreported false positive rates; (2) lack of correspondences (i.e., localizing the regions before and after a change); and (3) poor zero-shot generalization across different domains. To address these issues, we introduce a novel method that leverages change correspondences (a) during training to improve change detection accuracy, and (b) at test time, to minimize false positives. That is, we harness the supervision labels of where an object is added or removed to supervise change detectors, improving their accuracy over previous work by a large margin. Our work is also the first to predict correspondences between pairs of detected changes using estimated homography and the Hungarian algorithm. Our model demonstrates superior performance over existing methods, achieving state-of-the-art results in change detection and change correspondence accuracy across both in-distribution and zero-shot benchmarks.

Moments when a time series changes its behaviour are called change points. Detection of such points is a well-known problem, which can be found in many applications: quality monitoring of industrial processes, failure detection in complex systems, health monitoring, speech recognition and video analysis. Occurrence of change point implies that the state of the system is altered and its timely detection might help to prevent unwanted consequences. In this paper, we present two online change-point detection approaches based on neural networks. These algorithms demonstrate linear computational complexity and are suitable for change-point detection in large time series. We compare them with the best known algorithms on various synthetic and real world data sets. Experiments show that the proposed methods outperform known approaches.

Longitudinal observational data are often subject to informative missingness. For example, in healthcare research using electronic health records, covariates and outcomes are measured only when patients interact with the healthcare system. Whether these data are observed usually depends on the unobserved variable values themselves, introducing a common form of data missing not at random. We develop identification and estimation methods for the effects of longitudinal modified treatment policies under a self-censoring model which explicitly models this dependence. We consider effects of treatments that can be modified only at measurement times (e.g., interactions with the heathcare system). We study two settings: one in which the observed history suffices for treatment confounding control, and another in which confounder control requires covariate values that were not measured at missed visits. In both settings, we combine longitudinal causal identification with shadow-variable conditional moment restrictions to obtain recursive identification formulas for the counterfactual outcome mean. We derive gradients of the pathwise derivatives and second-order remainder expansions, and use these results to construct estimators that accommodate machine learning for nuisance-function estimation. Under suitable product-rate conditions and cross-fitting, the estimators are asymptotically linear and permit root-n inference, including simultaneous inference across outcome times. We also describe conditional-moment learning and ensemble approaches for estimating the nuisance functions required by our approach, together with a pool-and-smooth strategy that borrows information across sparsely measured outcomes.

Building-change detection underpins many important applications, especially in the military and crisis-management domains. Recent methods used for change detection have shifted towards deep learning, which depends on the quality of its training data. The assembly of large-scale annotated satellite imagery datasets is therefore essential for global building-change surveillance. Existing datasets almost exclusively offer near-nadir viewing angles. This limits the range of changes that can be detected. By offering larger observation ranges, the scroll imaging mode of optical satellites presents an opportunity to overcome this restriction. This paper therefore introduces S2Looking, a building-change-detection dataset that contains large-scale side-looking satellite images captured at various off-nadir angles. The dataset consists of 5000 bitemporal image pairs of rural areas and more than 65,920 annotated instances of changes throughout the world. The dataset can be used to train deep-learning-based change-detection algorithms. It expands upon existing datasets by providing (1) larger viewing angles; (2) large illumination variances; and (3) the added complexity of rural images. To facilitate {the} use of the dataset, a benchmark task has been established, and preliminary tests suggest that deep-learning algorithms find the dataset significantly more challenging than the closest-competing near-nadir dataset, LEVIR-CD+. S2Looking may therefore promote important advances in existing building-change-detection algorithms. The dataset is available at https://github.com/S2Looking/.

How strongly do the remaining diffusion-sampling steps amplify a perturbation at a late latent state? Standard measurements answer this question with newly sampled isotropic noise, even though perturbations encountered during sampling have already been transformed by earlier steps. We compare these two cases directly. For each trajectory, we transport a centered perturbation from an earlier step to a late state, then replay its direction at the same magnitude as a newly sampled isotropic perturbation; both then undergo the same remaining updates. Across the samplers we study, median paired shaped-to-fresh angular-gain ratios range from 1.14 to 2.35. Shaped angular gain exceeds its matched fresh counterpart in every trajectory in the original main cohorts. The same pattern appears when endpoint change is measured by latent RMS. The effect also appears in perceptual feature representations: earlier-sampling directions cause larger feature changes at the endpoint, even when the corresponding pixel-space change is comparable. Permuting shaped directions across trajectories weakens the effect, including within class, indicating that the advantage depends on alignment with the receiving trajectory as well as on shared directional structure.

We propose an algorithm for change point monitoring in linear causal models that accounts for interventions. Through a special centralization technique, we can concentrate the changes arising from causal propagation across nodes into a single dimension. Additionally, by selecting appropriate intervention nodes based on Kullback-Leibler divergence, we can amplify the change magnitude. We also present an algorithm for selecting the intervention values, which aids in the identification of the most effective intervention nodes. Two monitoring methods are proposed, each with an adaptive intervention policy to make a balance between exploration and exploitation. We theoretically demonstrate the first-order optimality of the proposed methods and validate their properties using simulation datasets and two real-world case studies.

Understanding the changing structure of science over time is essential to elucidating how science evolves. We develop diachronic embeddings of scholarly periodicals to quantify "semantic changes" of periodicals across decades, allowing us to track the evolution of research topics and identify rapidly developing fields. By mapping periodicals within a physical-life-health triangle, we reveal an evolving interdisciplinary science landscape, finding an overall trend toward specialization for most periodicals but increasing interdisciplinarity for bioscience periodicals. Analyzing a periodical's trajectory within this triangle over time allows us to visualize how its research focus shifts. Furthermore, by monitoring the formation of local clusters of periodicals, we can identify emerging research topics such as AIDS research and nanotechnology in the 1980s. Our work offers novel quantification in the science of science and provides a quantitative lens to examine the evolution of science, which may facilitate future investigations into the emergence and development of research fields.

In the face of pressing environmental issues in the 21st century, monitoring surface changes on Earth is more important than ever. Large-scale remote sensing, such as satellite imagery, is an important tool for this task. However, using supervised methods to detect changes is difficult because of the lack of satellite data annotated with change labels, especially for rare categories of change. Annotation proves challenging due to the sparse occurrence of changes in satellite images. Even within a vast collection of images, only a small fraction may exhibit persistent changes of interest. To address this challenge, we introduce OPTIMUS, a self-supervised learning method based on an intuitive principle: if a model can recover information about the relative order of images in the time series, then that implies that there are long-lasting changes in the images. OPTIMUS demonstrates this principle by using change point detection methods on model outputs in a time series. We demonstrate that OPTIMUS can directly detect interesting changes in satellite images, achieving an improvement in AUROC score from 56.3% to 87.6% at distinguishing changed time series from unchanged ones compared to baselines. Our code and dataset are available at https://huggingface.co/datasets/optimus-change/optimus-dataset/.

Reality may establish that an outcome occurred without identifying which evolving procedure produced it or why. This distinction matters in production ML systems whose code, configuration, and artifacts change while external feedback accumulates. We examine it in a human-directed, agent-engineered quantitative trading system, using oracle to mean an external source of realized outcomes rather than a complete correctness specification. Across one year, the account gained and outperformed a broad market index, while annual alpha was not statistically distinguishable from zero under the main retrospective specification. Retrospectively selected subperiods include adverse relative performance and conditional candidate-level weakness under declared approximate references. Engineering records document changes during the episode, and complete recommendation-to-runtime binding is unavailable. The archive does not establish a common frozen instance or a unique cause. The case motivates an outcome--diagnosis gap: outcome evidence, evaluated-object identity, and causal explanation support distinct claims. We distinguish frozen instances, pre-specified adaptive procedures, and ad-hoc development; organize archive-relative claim identifiability and an evidence hierarchy; and propose a prospective production-binding protocol. An illustrative compatible-history example shows how factual binding can resolve a recommendation's referent without supplying its counterfactual effect. The protocol is proposed rather than prospectively validated. External feedback constrains outcome claims, while provenance and additional identification structure determine the resolution of diagnosis.

Change data synthesis provides a cost-effective solution for expanding training data and improving the performance of change detection models. However, existing synthesis methods typically rely on handcrafted rules to simulate changes, where limited coverage of class transitions restricts the diversity of synthesized data, while predefined transition designs limit their flexibility in accommodating varied change types. In this work, we introduce KnowChange, a knowledge-guided change data synthesis framework that leverages pretrained vision-language models as knowledge sources to reason about plausible change locations and class transitions from pre-change scenes and desired change types. By integrating knowledge-guided change simulation with generalizable synthesis models, KnowChange enables flexible synthesis of diverse change types within a unified framework. Extensive experiments demonstrate that KnowChange-generated data consistently outperforms existing synthetic datasets in both synthetic-to-real transfer and synthetic data augmentation, despite being generated at a compact scale. Further analyses show that the knowledge-guided change simulation can be seamlessly integrated into existing synthesis pipelines and enhance the downstream utility of synthesized data.

Accurately assessing dietary behavior change receptivity is essential for designing effective just-in-time adaptive interventions (JITAIs) that promote healthier eating habits. However, self-report-based assessment of behavior change receptivity is sparse and delayed, limiting its practical use in continuous monitoring. To explore whether passive sensing may help address this challenge, this study conducts a pilot investigation of inferring participants' self-reported behavior change receptivity from egocentric eating images collected by a wearable camera. We use pilot data obtained from free-living eating episodes using the Automatic Ingestion Monitor v2 (AIM-2). The data included egocentric image sequences captured during eating and paired with responses to questions assessing specific dimensions of behavior change receptivity (awareness, interaction capability, and motivation). To examine whether visual information contained any relevancy to these responses, we evaluated a transfer-learning-assisted framework that combines a pre-trained Contrastive Language-Image Pre-Training (CLIP) vision encoder with a lightweight transformer classifier. The model processes eating episode image sequences to extract potential semantic and temporal cues related to behavior change receptivity. Preliminary experimental results show promising improvements over simple baseline models for behavior change receptivity indicators. These early findings suggest that egocentric eating episode images may contain cues related to dietary behavior change receptivity, and warrant further investigation with larger and more comprehensive datasets.

With its exquisite sensitivity, wavelength coverage, and spatial and spectral resolution, the James Webb Space Telescope is poised to revolutionise our view of the distant, high-redshift (z>5) Universe. While Webb's spectroscopic observations will be transformative for the field, photometric observations play a key role in identifying distant objects and providing more comprehensive samples than accessible to spectroscopy alone. In addition to identifying objects, photometric observations can also be used to infer physical properties and thus be used to constrain galaxy formation models. However, inferred physical properties from broadband photometric observations, particularly in the absence of spectroscopic redshifts, often have large uncertainties. With the development of new tools for forward modelling simulations it is now routinely possible to predict observational quantities, enabling a direct comparison with observations. With this in mind, in this work, we make predictions for the colour evolution of galaxies at z=5-15 using the FLARES: First Light And Reionisation Epoch Simulations cosmological hydrodynamical simulation suite. We predict a complex evolution, driven predominantly by strong nebular line emission passing through individual bands. These predictions are in good agreement with existing constraints from Hubble and Spitzer as well as some of the first results from Webb. We also contrast our predictions with other models in the literature: while the general trends are similar we find key differences, particularly in the strength of features associated with strong nebular line emission. This suggests photometric observations alone should provide useful discriminating power between different models.

As language models (LMs) approach human-level performance, a comprehensive understanding of their behavior becomes crucial. This includes evaluating capabilities, biases, task performance, and alignment with societal values. Extensive initial evaluations, including red teaming and diverse benchmarking, can establish a model's behavioral profile. However, subsequent fine-tuning or deployment modifications may alter these behaviors in unintended ways. We present a method for continual Behavioral Shift Auditing (BSA) in LMs. Building on recent work in hypothesis testing, our auditing test detects behavioral shifts solely through model generations. Our test compares model generations from a baseline model to those of the model under scrutiny and provides theoretical guarantees for change detection while controlling false positives. The test features a configurable tolerance parameter that adjusts sensitivity to behavioral changes for different use cases. We evaluate our approach using two case studies: monitoring changes in (a) toxicity and (b) translation performance. We find that the test is able to detect meaningful changes in behavior distributions using just hundreds of examples.

Scientific agents must learn not only how to reason, but also what to believe. However, existing LLM agents typically express scientific hypotheses in free-form text, leaving their beliefs implicit and difficult to test or revise. We introduce EvoSCM, which equips scientific agents with explicit structural causal models that evolve as new experimental evidence is collected. EvoSCM maintains a population of competing SCM hypotheses, each encoding a candidate causal explanation of the environment, and evolves them through a closed discovery loop. In each round, the agent abduces latent mechanisms from accumulated evidence, designs discriminative interventions, and commits to falsifiable predictions that it tests through experimentation. Discrepancies between prediction and observation are inductively distilled into correction rules that revise the causal structures and mechanisms of each hypothesis, and the agent then deductively validates the revised population against accumulated evidence and structural consistency to guide the next round. We evaluate EvoSCM on DiscoverPhysics, a benchmark requiring agents to uncover the hidden dynamics of noncanonical physical worlds through experimentation. EvoSCM consistently improves scientific discovery over baselines, yielding more accurate explanations and predictions while making more effective use of experimental interactions.

When individuals encounter observations that violate their expectations, when will they adjust their expectations and when will they maintain them despite these observations? For example, when individuals expect objects of type A to be smaller than objects B, but observe the opposite, when will they adjust their expectation about the relationship between the two objects (to A being larger than B)? Naively, one would predict that the larger the violation, the greater the adaptation. However, experiments reveal that when violations are extreme, individuals are more likely to hold on to their prior expectations rather than adjust them. To address this puzzle, we tested the adaptation of artificial neural networks (ANNs) capable of relational learning and found a similar phenomenon: Standard learning dynamics dictates that small violations would lead to adjustments of expected relations while larger ones would be resolved using a different mechanism -- a change in object representation that bypasses the need for adaptation of the relational expectations. These results suggest that the experimentally-observed stability of prior expectations when facing large expectation violations is a natural consequence of learning dynamics and does not require any additional mechanisms. We conclude by discussing the effect of intermediate adaptation steps on this stability.

Community-based fact-checking can reduce the spread of annotated misleading posts, but whether it produces lasting behavioral change among corrected authors remains unclear. Here, we conduct a large-scale quasi-experimental study of the Community Notes system on X (formerly Twitter), tracking four weeks of activity before and after note display for 19,854 accounts and 57,935 corrections (noted posts and matched controls), covering 11,909,591 original posts. Difference-in-Differences estimates show that note display is followed by an average 2.9% increase in corrected accounts' original-post activity. This aggregate conceals two divergent trajectories. Accounts corrected only once reduce their activity by 2.4% and subsequently publish less toxic and less misleading content. Repeatedly corrected accounts, which constitute 28.6% of corrected accounts but produce 73.4% of fact-checked posts, instead increase their activity by 4.4% after their first correction and show no detectable response to later ones. They exhibit no comparable content improvement, and instead publish more highly misleading posts, cite lower-quality domains, and post more political content. Community notes can thus constrain individual misleading posts without durably improving the behavior of the accounts most responsible for them, indicating that correcting content and changing its producers are distinct objectives for platform design.

Urban transformations have profound societal impact on both individuals and communities at large. Accurately assessing these shifts is essential for understanding their underlying causes and ensuring sustainable urban planning. Traditional measurements often encounter constraints in spatial and temporal granularity, failing to capture real-time physical changes. While street view imagery, capturing the heartbeat of urban spaces from a pedestrian point of view, can add as a high-definition, up-to-date, and on-the-ground visual proxy of urban change. We curate the largest street view time series dataset to date, and propose an end-to-end change detection model to effectively capture physical alterations in the built environment at scale. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed method by benchmark comparisons with previous literature and implementing it at the city-wide level. Our approach has the potential to supplement existing dataset and serve as a fine-grained and accurate assessment of urban change.

We present a novel, training-free approach to scene change detection. Our method leverages tracking models, which inherently perform change detection between consecutive frames of video by identifying common objects and detecting new or missing objects. Specifically, our method takes advantage of the change detection effect of the tracking model by inputting reference and query images instead of consecutive frames. Furthermore, we focus on the content gap and style gap between two input images in change detection, and address both issues by proposing adaptive content threshold and style bridging layers, respectively. Finally, we extend our approach to video, leveraging rich temporal information to enhance the performance of scene change detection. We compare our approach and baseline through various experiments. While existing train-based baseline tend to specialize only in the trained domain, our method shows consistent performance across various domains, proving the competitiveness of our approach.

Ocean scientists have been collecting visual data to study marine organisms for decades. These images and videos are extremely valuable both for basic science and environmental monitoring tasks. There are tools for automatically processing these data, but none that are capable of handling the extreme variability in sample populations, image quality, and habitat characteristics that are common in visual sampling of the ocean. Such distribution shifts can occur over very short physical distances and in narrow time windows. Creating models that are able to recognize when an image or video sequence contains a new organism, an unusual collection of animals, or is otherwise out-of-sample is critical to fully leverage visual data in the ocean. The FathomNet2023 competition dataset presents a realistic scenario where the set of animals in the target data differs from the training data. The challenge is both to identify the organisms in a target image and assess whether it is out-of-sample.

Data drift is the change in model input data that is one of the key factors leading to machine learning models performance degradation over time. Monitoring drift helps detecting these issues and preventing their harmful consequences. Meaningful drift interpretation is a fundamental step towards effective re-training of the model. In this study we propose an end-to-end framework for reliable model-agnostic change-point detection and interpretation in large task-oriented dialog systems, proven effective in multiple customer deployments. We evaluate our approach and demonstrate its benefits with a novel variant of intent classification training dataset, simulating customer requests to a dialog system. We make the data publicly available.

We argue that progress toward AGI is theory limited rather than data or scale limited. Building on the critical rationalism of Popper and Deutsch, we challenge the Platonic Representation Hypothesis. Observationally equivalent worlds can diverge under interventions, so observational adequacy alone cannot guarantee interventional competence. We begin by laying foundations, definitions of knowledge, learning, intelligence, counterfactual competence and AGI, and then analyze the limits of observational learning that motivate an error centric shift. We recast the problem as three questions about how explicit and implicit errors evolve under an agent's actions, which errors are unreachable within a fixed hypothesis space, and how conjecture and criticism expand that space. From these questions we propose Causal Mechanics, a mechanisms first program in which hypothesis space change is a first class operation and probabilistic structure is used when useful rather than presumed. We advance structural principles that make error discovery and correction tractable, including a differential Locality and Autonomy Principle for modular interventions, a gauge invariant form of Independent Causal Mechanisms for separability, and the Compositional Autonomy Principle for analogy preservation, together with actionable diagnostics. The aim is a scaffold for systems that can convert unreachable errors into reachable ones and correct them.

The realization that complex systems such as ecological communities can collapse or shift regimes suddenly and without rapid external forcing poses a serious challenge to our understanding and management of the natural world. The potential to identify early warning signals that would allow researchers and managers to predict such events before they happen has therefore been an invaluable discovery that offers a way forward in spite of such seemingly unpredictable behavior. Research into early warning signals has demonstrated that it is possible to define and detect such early warning signals in advance of a transition in certain contexts. Here we describe the pattern emerging as research continues to explore just how far we can generalize these results. A core of examples emerges that shares three properties: the phenomenon of rapid regime shifts, a pattern of 'critical slowing down' that can be used to detect the approaching shift, and a mechanism of bifurcation driving the sudden change. As research has expanded beyond these core examples, it is becoming clear that not all systems that show regime shifts exhibit critical slowing down, or vice versa. Even when systems exhibit critical slowing down, statistical detection is a challenge. We review the literature that explores these edge cases and highlight the need for (a) new early warning behaviors that can be used in cases where rapid shifts do not exhibit critical slowing down, (b) the development of methods to identify which behavior might be an appropriate signal when encountering a novel system; bearing in mind that a positive indication for some systems is a negative indication in others, and (c) statistical methods that can distinguish between signatures of early warning behaviors and noise.

The "thinking-with-images" paradigm equips multimodal LLMs with active visual operations such as crop-and-zoom. However, models using these operations often achieve only marginal or negative gains over direct inference at substantially higher token cost. They may also repeatedly crop irrelevant regions and fail on questions that direct inference answers correctly. We ask whether the returned visual evidence causally affects the answer. To answer this question, we formulate visual tool-use as a causal graph that separates observation-mediated paths from action-induced shortcuts. We then audit it through interventions at the three levels: policy (comparing tool-use with direct inference), trajectory (corrupting all observations during rollout), and step (counterfactually replacing one individual observation under a fixed prefix). Our step-level estimand, Visual Evidence Gain, isolates the contribution of each returned observation. Across six representative models and five fine-grained perception benchmarks, we uncover policy miscalibration with two failure modes. In Calling Without Looking, returned observations have no causal effect on the answer. In Looking Without Planning, observations are informative but the call schedule is incoherent. A trajectory-level diagnostic decomposes the policy-level accuracy gain and shows that the gain is concentrated in a Calibrated minority. We term this discrepancy the illusion of visual tool-use: despite aggregate accuracy gains, visual tool-use is not causally effective across a broad range of rollouts. The code is available at https://github.com/OpenCausaLab/CauAudit.