Daily Papers

AI agent inference is driving an inference heavy datacenter future and exposes bottlenecks beyond compute - especially memory capacity, memory bandwidth and high-speed interconnect. We introduce two metrics - Operational Intensity (OI) and Capacity Footprint (CF) - that jointly explain regimes the classic roofline analysis misses, including the memory capacity wall. Across agentic workflows (chat, coding, web use, computer use) and base model choices (GQA/MLA, MoE, quantization), OI/CF can shift dramatically, with long context KV cache making decode highly memory bound. These observations motivate disaggregated serving and system level heterogeneity: specialized prefill and decode accelerators, broader scale up networking, and decoupled compute-memory enabled by optical I/O. We further hypothesize agent-hardware co design, multiple inference accelerators within one system, and high bandwidth, large capacity memory disaggregation as foundations for adaptation to evolving OI/CF. Together, these directions chart a path to sustain efficiency and capability for large scale agentic AI inference.

The transition toward localized intelligence through Small Language Models (SLMs) has intensified the need for rigorous performance characterization on resource-constrained edge hardware. However, objectively measuring the theoretical performance ceilings of diverse architectures across heterogeneous platforms remains a formidable challenge. In this work, we propose a systematic framework based on the Roofline model that unifies architectural primitives and hardware constraints through the lens of operational intensity (OI). By defining an inference-potential region, we introduce the Relative Inference Potential as a novel metric to compare efficiency differences between Large Language Models (LLMs) on the same hardware substrate. Extensive empirical analysis across diverse compute tiers reveals that variations in performance and OI are significantly influenced by sequence length. We further identify a critical regression in OI as model depth increases. Additionally, our findings highlight an efficiency trap induced by hardware heterogeneity and demonstrate how structural refinements, such as Multi-head Latent Attention (MLA), can effectively unlock latent inference potential across various hardware substrates. These insights provide actionable directions for hardware-software co-design to align neural structures with physical constraints in on-device intelligence. The released code is available in the Appendix C.

Monolithic large language models (LLMs) like GPT-4 have paved the way for modern generative AI applications. Training, serving, and maintaining monolithic LLMs at scale, however, remains prohibitively expensive and challenging. The disproportionate increase in compute-to-memory ratio of modern AI accelerators have created a memory wall, necessitating new methods to deploy AI. Composition of Experts (CoE) is an alternative modular approach that lowers the cost and complexity of training and serving. However, this approach presents two key challenges when using conventional hardware: (1) without fused operations, smaller models have lower operational intensity, which makes high utilization more challenging to achieve; and (2) hosting a large number of models can be either prohibitively expensive or slow when dynamically switching between them. In this paper, we describe how combining CoE, streaming dataflow, and a three-tier memory system scales the AI memory wall. We describe Samba-CoE, a CoE system with 150 experts and a trillion total parameters. We deploy Samba-CoE on the SambaNova SN40L Reconfigurable Dataflow Unit (RDU) - a commercial dataflow accelerator architecture that has been co-designed for enterprise inference and training applications. The chip introduces a new three-tier memory system with on-chip distributed SRAM, on-package HBM, and off-package DDR DRAM. A dedicated inter-RDU network enables scaling up and out over multiple sockets. We demonstrate speedups ranging from 2x to 13x on various benchmarks running on eight RDU sockets compared with an unfused baseline. We show that for CoE inference deployments, the 8-socket RDU Node reduces machine footprint by up to 19x, speeds up model switching time by 15x to 31x, and achieves an overall speedup of 3.7x over a DGX H100 and 6.6x over a DGX A100.

Accurate forecasting of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity - particularly during periods of rapid intensification and rapid weakening - remains a challenge for operational meteorology, with high-stakes implications for disaster preparedness and infrastructure resilience. Recent advances in machine learning have yielded notable progress in TC prediction; however, most existing systems provide forecasts that degrade rapidly in extreme regimes and lack long-range consistency. Here we introduce TIFNet, a transformer-based forecasting model that generates non-iterative, 5-day intensity trajectories by integrating high-resolution global forecasts with a historical-evolution fusion mechanism. Trained on reanalysis data and fine-tuned with operational data, TIFNet consistently outperforms operational numerical models across all forecast horizons, delivering robust improvements across weak, strong, and super typhoon categories. In rapid intensity change regimes - long regarded as the most difficult to forecast - TIFNet reduces forecast error by 29-43% relative to current operational baselines. These results represent a substantial advance in artificial-intelligence-based TC intensity forecasting, especially under extreme conditions where traditional models consistently underperform.

Precipitation nowcasting, the high-resolution forecasting of precipitation up to two hours ahead, supports the real-world socio-economic needs of many sectors reliant on weather-dependent decision-making. State-of-the-art operational nowcasting methods typically advect precipitation fields with radar-based wind estimates, and struggle to capture important non-linear events such as convective initiations. Recently introduced deep learning methods use radar to directly predict future rain rates, free of physical constraints. While they accurately predict low-intensity rainfall, their operational utility is limited because their lack of constraints produces blurry nowcasts at longer lead times, yielding poor performance on more rare medium-to-heavy rain events. To address these challenges, we present a Deep Generative Model for the probabilistic nowcasting of precipitation from radar. Our model produces realistic and spatio-temporally consistent predictions over regions up to 1536 km x 1280 km and with lead times from 5-90 min ahead. In a systematic evaluation by more than fifty expert forecasters from the Met Office, our generative model ranked first for its accuracy and usefulness in 88% of cases against two competitive methods, demonstrating its decision-making value and ability to provide physical insight to real-world experts. When verified quantitatively, these nowcasts are skillful without resorting to blurring. We show that generative nowcasting can provide probabilistic predictions that improve forecast value and support operational utility, and at resolutions and lead times where alternative methods struggle.

Information Technology (IT) Operations (Ops), particularly Artificial Intelligence for IT Operations (AIOps), is the guarantee for maintaining the orderly and stable operation of existing information systems. According to Gartner's prediction, the use of AI technology for automated IT operations has become a new trend. Large language models (LLMs) that have exhibited remarkable capabilities in NLP-related tasks, are showing great potential in the field of AIOps, such as in aspects of root cause analysis of failures, generation of operations and maintenance scripts, and summarizing of alert information. Nevertheless, the performance of current LLMs in Ops tasks is yet to be determined. In this paper, we present OpsEval, a comprehensive task-oriented Ops benchmark designed for LLMs. For the first time, OpsEval assesses LLMs' proficiency in various crucial scenarios at different ability levels. The benchmark includes 7184 multi-choice questions and 1736 question-answering (QA) formats in English and Chinese. By conducting a comprehensive performance evaluation of the current leading large language models, we show how various LLM techniques can affect the performance of Ops, and discussed findings related to various topics, including model quantification, QA evaluation, and hallucination issues. To ensure the credibility of our evaluation, we invite dozens of domain experts to manually review our questions. At the same time, we have open-sourced 20% of the test QA to assist current researchers in preliminary evaluations of their OpsLLM models. The remaining 80% of the data, which is not disclosed, is used to eliminate the issue of the test set leakage. Additionally, we have constructed an online leaderboard that is updated in real-time and will continue to be updated, ensuring that any newly emerging LLMs will be evaluated promptly. Both our dataset and leaderboard have been made public.

This report introduces the concept of "Highly Autonomous Cyber-Capable Agents" (HACCAs), AI systems capable of autonomously conducting multi-stage cyber campaigns at a level comparable to today's top criminal hacking groups or state-affiliated threat actors, and analyzes the security implications of their emergence. The report: (1) Defines what HACCAs are and forecasts when they might arrive, establishing a clear framework for an autonomous cyber agent that can operate across the full attack lifecycle without meaningful human direction; (2) Identifies five core operational tactics, detailing how HACCAs could sustain themselves in the wild, from autonomous infrastructure setup and credential harvesting to detection evasion and adaptive shutdown avoidance; (3) Analyzes the strategic implications, including how HACCAs could intensify interstate cyber competition, lower the barrier to entry for sophisticated operations, and proliferate advanced offensive capabilities to criminal groups and less-resourced state actors; (4) Flags two tail risks that deserve serious attention: the potential for autonomous cyber operations to trigger inadvertent cyber-nuclear escalation, and the possibility of sustained loss of control over rogue HACCA deployments; (5) Proposes seven policy recommendations across three goals: understanding the emerging threat, defending against HACCAs, and ensuring their responsible development and deployment.

Lara is a key-value algebra that aims at unifying linear and relational algebra with three types of operation abstraction. The study of Lara's expressive ability reports that it can represent relational algebra and most linear algebra operations. However, several essential computations, such as matrix inversion and determinant, cannot be expressed in Lara. Lara cannot represent global and iterative computation, either. This article proposes IterLara, extending Lara with iterative operators, to provide an algebraic model that unifies operations in general-purpose computing, like big data, AI, scientific computing, and database. We study the expressive ability of Lara and IterLara and prove that IterLara with aggregation functions can represent matrix inversion, determinant. Besides, we demonstrate that IterLara with no limitation of function utility is Turing complete. We also propose the Operation Count (OP) as a metric of computation amount for IterLara and ensure that the OP metric is in accordance with the existing computation metrics.

Enterprise networks are growing ever larger with a rapidly expanding attack surface, increasing the volume of security alerts generated from security controls. Security Operations Centre (SOC) analysts triage these alerts to identify malicious activity, but they struggle with alert fatigue due to the overwhelming number of benign alerts. Organisations are turning to managed SOC providers, where the problem is amplified by context switching and limited visibility into business processes. A novel system, named AACT, is introduced that automates SOC workflows by learning from analysts' triage actions on cybersecurity alerts. It accurately predicts triage decisions in real time, allowing benign alerts to be closed automatically and critical ones prioritised. This reduces the SOC queue allowing analysts to focus on the most severe, relevant or ambiguous threats. The system has been trained and evaluated on both real SOC data and an open dataset, obtaining high performance in identifying malicious alerts from benign alerts. Additionally, the system has demonstrated high accuracy in a real SOC environment, reducing alerts shown to analysts by 61% over six months, with a low false negative rate of 1.36% over millions of alerts.

Operational disaster response goes beyond damage assessment, requiring responders to integrate multi-sensor signals, reason over road networks, populations and key facilities, plan evacuations, and produce actionable reports. However, prior work largely isolates remote-sensing perception or evaluates generic tool use, leaving the end-to-end workflows of emergency operations underexplored. In this paper, we introduce Disaster Operational Response Agent benchmark (DORA), the first agentic benchmark for end-to-end disaster response: 515 expert-authored tasks across 45 real-world disaster events spanning 10 types, paired with expert-verified, replayable gold trajectories totaling 3,500 tool-call steps. Tasks span five dimensions that cover the operational disaster-response pipeline: disaster perception, spatial relational analysis, rescue and evacuation planning, temporal evolution reasoning, and multi-modal report synthesis. Agents compose calls from a 108-tool MCP library over heterogeneous geospatial data: optical, SAR, and multi-spectral imagery across single-, bi-, and multi-temporal sequences (0.015-10m GSD), complemented by elevation and social vector layers. We comprehensively evaluate 13 frontier LLMs on our benchmark, revealing three persistent challenges: 1) disaster-domain grounding exposes unique failure modes (damage-semantic grounding, sensor-modality mismatch, and disaster-pipeline composition); 2) agents are doubly bottlenecked by tool selection and argument grounding, where gold tool-order hints improve accuracy by only 1.08-4.40%, and alternative scaffolds yield at most a 3.24% gain; 3) compositional fragility scales with trajectory length, the agent-to-gold gap widening from 7% to 56% on long pipelines. DORA establishes a rigorous testbed for operationally reliable disaster-response agents.

We formulate nonequilibrium thermodynamics in which intensive variables acquire operational meaning through measurement protocols consistent with local reciprocity. Using physical equilibrium as a reference, conjugate observables are constructed by continuously adjusting devices along the local tangent space of the statistical manifold. In this relativity of observation, Onsager reciprocity holds locally, allowing inference-based Lagrange multipliers to be directly measured. This provides a systematic method to extend operational definitions of intensive variables to nonequilibrium states, highlighting their context-dependent nature and offering a concrete experimental strategy.

Safety alignment mechanisms in large language models prevent responses to harmful queries through learned refusal behavior, yet these same mechanisms impede legitimate research applications including cognitive modeling, adversarial testing, and security analysis. While abliteration techniques enable surgical removal of refusal representations through directional orthogonalization, the relative effectiveness of available implementations remains uncharacterized. This study evaluates four abliteration tools (Heretic, DECCP, ErisForge, FailSpy) across sixteen instruction-tuned models (7B-14B parameters), reporting tool compatibility on all 16 models and quantitative metrics on subsets dictated by tool support. Single-pass methods demonstrated superior capability preservation on the benchmarked subset (avg GSM8K change across three models: ErisForge -0.28 pp; DECCP -0.13 pp), while Bayesian-optimized abliteration produced variable distribution shift (KL divergence: 0.043-1.646) with model-dependent capability impact. These findings provide researchers with evidence-based selection criteria for abliteration tool deployment across diverse model architectures. The principal finding indicates that mathematical reasoning capabilities exhibit the highest sensitivity to abliteration interventions, with GSM8K change ranging from +1.51 pp to -18.81 pp (-26.5% relative) depending on tool selection and model architecture.

Agent skills, SKILL.md files that package reusable procedural knowledge for an LLM agent, are a popular mechanism for extending agent capabilities. Public repositories now host them in large and growing numbers, yet these artifacts are fragmented, redundant, and uneven in quality, and their value in practice is unclear. A core question remains open, namely how to consolidate this open-source SKILL.md ecosystem into a single usable corpus, and what bounds its benefit on real-world agent tasks. We present SkillCorpus, a framework that aggregates, curates, matches, and evaluates the open skill ecosystem at scale. It filters ~821,000 crawled skills through a multi-stage pipeline into 96,401 skills organised by a 16-class taxonomy and three quality facets (utility, robustness, safety), and pairs them with a fine-tuned retrieval-and-selection stack that matches task-relevant skills. We evaluate end-to-end across three benchmarks (SkillsBench, GDPVal, QwenClawBench), two harnesses, and two open backbones with a frontier robustness check. Integrating SkillCorpus yields consistent gains across all three benchmarks, largest on SkillsBench (+7.5 pp). An operational analysis traces the gains to a coverage boundary and a harness boundary. SkillCorpus is, to our knowledge, the first end-to-end account of when a curated, retrieval-served community corpus improves real agent tasks, and where it does not. The dataset, models, and code will be released upon acceptance.

Large language model agents can plan, invoke tools, and modify external states, yet most systems still take an explicit user instruction as a fixed starting point. Proactive service moves the decision upstream: an agent must infer service opportunities from incomplete environmental and user signals, choose among remaining silent, asking, assisting, and acting, and account for interruption, misunderstanding, overreach, and privacy costs. This survey gives an operational definition centered on initiative and formulates the problem as a partially observable sequential decision process constrained by authorization and risk. The formulation represents timing, content, and delivery within one structured action, while making explicit the option value of waiting, the decision value of questions, and feedback-induced state changes. On this basis, we organize existing methods along one decision pipeline (state and need estimation, intervention gating, action construction, and feedback adaptation) and describe prescribed, predictive, model based, and return optimizing mechanisms as nonexclusive policy-construction components. We further normalize decision units and three-axis evidence descriptors across streaming dialogue, screen, video, software-engineering, and human-agent collaboration resources, and formalize metrics for triggering, timing, calibration, user burden, safety, and policy value. The synthesis shows why offline classification performance alone does not predict deployment benefit and why long-term memory is not a defining condition of proactivity. Reliable proactive service instead requires calibrated incremental intervention value, verifiable authorization, recoverable execution, and counterfactual evidence.

In this report we describe the development of Command A, a powerful large language model purpose-built to excel at real-world enterprise use cases. Command A is an agent-optimised and multilingual-capable model, with support for 23 languages of global business, and a novel hybrid architecture balancing efficiency with top of the range performance. It offers best-in-class Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG) capabilities with grounding and tool use to automate sophisticated business processes. These abilities are achieved through a decentralised training approach, including self-refinement algorithms and model merging techniques. We also include results for Command R7B which shares capability and architectural similarities to Command A. Weights for both models have been released for research purposes. This technical report details our original training pipeline and presents an extensive evaluation of our models across a suite of enterprise-relevant tasks and public benchmarks, demonstrating excellent performance and efficiency.

Security Operations Centers (SOCs) are overwhelmed by tens of thousands of daily alerts, with only a small fraction corresponding to genuine attacks. This overload creates alert fatigue, leading to overlooked threats and analyst burnout. Classical detection pipelines are brittle and context-poor, while recent LLM-based approaches typically rely on a single model to interpret logs, retrieve context, and adjudicate alerts end-to-end -- an approach that struggles with noisy enterprise data and offers limited transparency. We propose CORTEX, a multi-agent LLM architecture for high-stakes alert triage in which specialized agents collaborate over real evidence: a behavior-analysis agent inspects activity sequences, evidence-gathering agents query external systems, and a reasoning agent synthesizes findings into an auditable decision. To support training and evaluation, we release a dataset of fine-grained SOC investigations from production environments, capturing step-by-step analyst actions and linked tool outputs. Across diverse enterprise scenarios, CORTEX substantially reduces false positives and improves investigation quality over state-of-the-art single-agent LLMs.

Activation Oracles (AOs) are promising methods for interpreting residual stream activations. However, current AOs face important issues, such as hallucinations and vagueness. Additionally, text-inversion confounds make them hard to evaluate. To this end, we improve the Activation Oracle (AO) training regime in four ways: training on on-policy rollouts, improving the conversational dataset, feeding more layers and an improvement to the injection formula. The capability improvements are marginal, but quality of life improvements are quite substantial. In addition, we open source the first comprehensive evaluation suite for AO quality, which we call AObench. Overall, we hope that our work sets a foundation that helps improve AOs and other models in the paradigm of scalable, end-to-end interpretability.

Understanding and anticipating vulnerability-related activity is a major challenge in cyber threat intelligence. This work investigates whether vulnerability sightings, such as proof-of-concept releases, detection templates, or online discussions, can be forecast over time. Building on our earlier work on VLAI, a transformer-based model that predicts vulnerability severity from textual descriptions, we examine whether severity scores can improve time-series forecasting as exogenous variables. We evaluate several approaches for short-term forecasting of sightings per vulnerability. First, we test SARIMAX models with and without log(x+1) transformations and VLAI-derived severity inputs. Although these adjustments provide limited improvements, SARIMAX remains poorly suited to sparse, short, and bursty vulnerability data. In practice, forecasts often produce overly wide confidence intervals and sometimes unrealistic negative values. To better capture the discrete and event-driven nature of sightings, we then explore count-based methods such as Poisson regression. Early results show that these models produce more stable and interpretable forecasts, especially when sightings are aggregated weekly. We also discuss simpler operational alternatives, including exponential decay functions for short forecasting horizons, to estimate future activity without requiring long historical series. Overall, this study highlights both the potential and the limitations of forecasting rare and bursty cyber events, and provides practical guidance for integrating predictive analytics into vulnerability intelligence workflows.

The prospect of artificial intelligence (AI) competing in the adversarial landscape of cyber security has long been considered one of the most impactful, challenging, and potentially dangerous applications of AI. Here, we demonstrate a new approach to assessing AI's progress towards enabling and scaling real-world offensive cyber operations (OCO) tactics in use by modern threat actors. We detail OCCULT, a lightweight operational evaluation framework that allows cyber security experts to contribute to rigorous and repeatable measurement of the plausible cyber security risks associated with any given large language model (LLM) or AI employed for OCO. We also prototype and evaluate three very different OCO benchmarks for LLMs that demonstrate our approach and serve as examples for building benchmarks under the OCCULT framework. Finally, we provide preliminary evaluation results to demonstrate how this framework allows us to move beyond traditional all-or-nothing tests, such as those crafted from educational exercises like capture-the-flag environments, to contextualize our indicators and warnings in true cyber threat scenarios that present risks to modern infrastructure. We find that there has been significant recent advancement in the risks of AI being used to scale realistic cyber threats. For the first time, we find a model (DeepSeek-R1) is capable of correctly answering over 90% of challenging offensive cyber knowledge tests in our Threat Actor Competency Test for LLMs (TACTL) multiple-choice benchmarks. We also show how Meta's Llama and Mistral's Mixtral model families show marked performance improvements over earlier models against our benchmarks where LLMs act as offensive agents in MITRE's high-fidelity offensive and defensive cyber operations simulation environment, CyberLayer.