Daily Papers

Complete orthogonal predictive coordinates do not by themselves bind a latent direction to a named intervention. We present a mathematical and synthetic audit motivated by vascular device-vessel suitcordance. Capacity-matched least-squares predictors were exactly equivalent under complete fixed output transforms, whereas an anchor-only observer recovered interpretations only within the span of known perturbation signatures. Six three-dimensional configurations across 64 seeds gave a maximum paired prediction discrepancy of 6.7e-15 but a median untransported edit error of 1.513. Coordinate transport removed that error. Noisy and weak anchors constrained calibration stability, and changing the representation basis required recalibration or verified transport. Across 256 additional fits in dimensions 3-24, prediction equivalence persisted within 4.0e-15. We then evaluated nine deliberate runnable fault classes across 64 seeds. All 576 faulty executions completed, but each violated at least one reconstruction, prediction, delivered-edit or scope contract; all 320 valid control records passed. Repeating a faulty implementation gave exact self-agreement despite error against the separately computed simulator expectation. For one omitted-direction defect, probe coverage followed its analytic law, and rank-aware abstention protected unsupported interpretations. Scalar-noise experiments exposed both missed weak faults and excessive rejection under narrow relative tolerances. These controls provide an executable separation of prediction, semantic support and scientific acceptance. They are synthetic numerical audits, not clinical validation, neural JEPA-Anything replication, agent learning or patient treatment-effect estimation.

World models construct latent states that support prediction, planning, and reasoning about an underlying system. Joint-embedding predictive architectures (JEPAs) offer a direct way to learn such states by predicting targets in representation space instead of reconstructing every detail of the observation. Standard JEPAs, however, organize all predictable content through one target embedding and one prediction pathway. In complex systems, this monolithic state can allocate redundant capacity to dominant signals while providing weak or conflicting gradients to less dominant predictive structure. We introduce \method, a latent world-modeling framework based on orthogonal predictive factorization. Learned basis matrices analyze each target state into multiple components, and a dedicated prediction branch estimates each component from a shared context representation. Predictive regression preserves the factor magnitudes required for state synthesis, an orthogonality objective discourages repeated directions, factor-activity regularization maintains variation in projected targets, and online variance regularization discourages coordinate-wise encoder collapse. Predicted components are synthesized into a complete latent state that can be used by a readout, decoder, planner, or autoregressive rollout. The same predictive-state mechanism applies when the target is temporally future, spatially hidden, or another partial observation of the same system. Experiments on controlled vision, single-cell transcriptomics, longitudinal health records, continuous control, and molecular dynamics evaluate representation quality, forecasting, planning, and long-horizon stability.

Self-predictive unsupervised learning methods such as BYOL or SimSiam have shown impressive results, and counter-intuitively, do not collapse to trivial representations. In this work, we aim at exploring the simplest possible mathematical arguments towards explaining the underlying mechanisms behind self-predictive unsupervised learning. We start with the observation that those methods crucially rely on the presence of a predictor network (and stop-gradient). With simple linear algebra, we show that when using a linear predictor, the optimal predictor is close to an orthogonal projection, and propose a general framework based on orthonormalization that enables to interpret and give intuition on why BYOL works. In addition, this framework demonstrates the crucial role of the exponential moving average and stop-gradient operator in BYOL as an efficient orthonormalization mechanism. We use these insights to propose four new closed-form predictor variants of BYOL to support our analysis. Our closed-form predictors outperform standard linear trainable predictor BYOL at 100 and 300 epochs (top-1 linear accuracy on ImageNet).

This work presents a novel online model-predictive trajectory planner for robotic manipulators called BoundMPC. This planner allows the collision-free following of Cartesian reference paths in the end-effector's position and orientation, including via-points, within desired asymmetric bounds of the orthogonal path error. The path parameter synchronizes the position and orientation reference paths. The decomposition of the path error into the tangential direction, describing the path progress, and the orthogonal direction, which represents the deviation from the path, is well known for the position from the path-following control in the literature. This paper extends this idea to the orientation by utilizing the Lie theory of rotations. Moreover, the orthogonal error plane is further decomposed into basis directions to define asymmetric Cartesian error bounds easily. Using piecewise linear position and orientation reference paths with via-points is computationally very efficient and allows replanning the pose trajectories during the robot's motion. This feature makes it possible to use this planner for dynamically changing environments and varying goals. The flexibility and performance of BoundMPC are experimentally demonstrated by two scenarios on a 7-DoF Kuka LBR iiwa 14 R820 robot. The first scenario shows the transfer of a larger object from a start to a goal pose through a confined space where the object must be tilted. The second scenario deals with grasping an object from a table where the grasping point changes during the robot's motion, and collisions with other obstacles in the scene must be avoided.

A popular way to approximate the Koopman operator's action on a finite-dimensional subspace of functions is via orthogonal projections. The quality of the projected model directly depends on the selected subspace, specifically on how close it is to being invariant under the Koopman operator. The notion of invariance proximity provides a tight upper bound on the worst-case relative prediction error of the finite-dimensional model. However, its direct calculation is computationally challenging. This paper leverages the geometric structure behind the definition of invariance proximity to provide a closed-form expression in terms of Jordan principal angles on general inner product spaces. Unveiling this connection allows us to exploit specific isomorphisms to circumvent the computational challenges associated with spaces of functions and enables the use of existing efficient numerical routines to compute invariance proximity.

Model dimension (d_{model}) is a fundamental hyperparameter in transformer language models, yet its role in setting the geometric limits of feature representation remains under-explored. Grounded in the Linear Representation and Superposition Hypotheses - which propose that models encode features as near-orthogonal directions in latent space - we develop a framework for estimating how many such directions a model can support. We first establish the embedding matrix as a measurable proxy for near-orthogonality constraints across the latent space: the boundary between meaningful token relationships and incidental similarity in the pairwise cosine similarity distribution gives a concrete estimate of the model's accepted deviation varepsilon from perfect orthogonality. Applying this metric across dozens of open-source models reveals two classes: models with high varepsilon whose embeddings lack near-orthogonal structure, and models with low varepsilon that maintain it. We then show that the standard Johnson-Lindenstrauss lemma greatly underestimates the packing efficiency of trained representations, and derive an adjusted capacity formula in which the number of near-orthogonal directions depends on the ratio of vectors to dimensions (k/d) rather than the raw count - a single modification that cuts prediction error by two orders of magnitude with no extra parameters. Combining these results, we define representational capacity as an upper bound on the number of distinguishable directions available for features and embeddings in a model's latent space. Capacity is exponentially sensitive to varepsilon, and larger models favor tighter orthogonality constraints over maximizing raw capacity - a pattern compatible with several explanations (a stability-capacity trade-off, a ceiling on usable concepts, or confounds with model scale) that we leave to future work.

Dictionary learning is a widely used unsupervised learning method in signal processing and machine learning. Most existing works of dictionary learning are in an offline manner. There are mainly two offline ways for dictionary learning. One is to do an alternative optimization of both the dictionary and the sparse code; the other way is to optimize the dictionary by restricting it over the orthogonal group. The latter one is called orthogonal dictionary learning which has a lower complexity implementation, hence, it is more favorable for lowcost devices. However, existing schemes on orthogonal dictionary learning only work with batch data and can not be implemented online, which is not applicable for real-time applications. This paper proposes a novel online orthogonal dictionary scheme to dynamically learn the dictionary from streaming data without storing the historical data. The proposed scheme includes a novel problem formulation and an efficient online algorithm design with convergence analysis. In the problem formulation, we relax the orthogonal constraint to enable an efficient online algorithm. In the algorithm design, we propose a new Frank-Wolfe-based online algorithm with a convergence rate of O(ln t/t^(1/4)). The convergence rate in terms of key system parameters is also derived. Experiments with synthetic data and real-world sensor readings demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed online orthogonal dictionary learning scheme.

Geographic coordinates are common inputs in applied machine learning, but latitude and longitude describe position rather than the surrounding environment. Image-grounded location encoders learn this context from satellite or ground-level imagery; structured open map data offers another source of supervision whose utility for continuous coordinate encoders remains less explored. We introduce CartoVec, a coordinate encoder trained to predict Overture-derived land cover, land use, transportation, place and connectivity targets at multiple spatial scales, without image inputs or downstream-task labels. We evaluate frozen embeddings on Census outcomes, Airbnb prices and Philadelphia crime in the US Northeast using spatial block cross-validation. CartoVec has the highest mean performance on most Census outcomes and the highest average across the full suite, with several comparisons close across folds. The findings support open map data as a practical source of reusable location representations with a coordinate-to-vector interface that requires no map lookup at inference. The open-weight model is available at https://huggingface.co/gursoyfurkan/CartoVec.

Steering is a widely used technique for controlling large language models, yet its effects are often unstable and hard to predict. Existing theoretical accounts are largely based on the Linear Representation Hypothesis (LRH). While LRH assumes that concepts can be orthogonalized for lossless control, this idealized mapping fails in real representations and cannot account for the observed unpredictability of steering. By relaxing LRH's orthogonality assumption while preserving linear representations, we show that overlapping concept contributions naturally yield a sample-specific axis-orthogonal structure. We formalize this as the Cylindrical Representation Hypothesis (CRH). In CRH, a central axis captures the main difference between concept absence and presence and drives concept generation. A surrounding normal plane controls steering sensitivity by determining how easily the axis can activate the target concept. Within this plane, only specific sensitive sectors strongly facilitate concept activation, while other sectors can suppress or delay it. While the surrounding normal plane can be reliably identified from difference vectors, the sensitive sector cannot, introducing intrinsic uncertainty at the sector level. This uncertainty provides a principled explanation for why steering outcomes often fluctuate even when using well-aligned directions. Our experiments verify the existence of the cylindrical structure and demonstrate that CRH provides a valid and practical way to interpret model steering behavior in real settings: https://github.com/mbzuai-nlp/CRH.

This paper presents OLinear, a linear-based multivariate time series forecasting model that operates in an orthogonally transformed domain. Recent forecasting models typically adopt the temporal forecast (TF) paradigm, which directly encode and decode time series in the time domain. However, the entangled step-wise dependencies in series data can hinder the performance of TF. To address this, some forecasters conduct encoding and decoding in the transformed domain using fixed, dataset-independent bases (e.g., sine and cosine signals in the Fourier transform). In contrast, we utilize OrthoTrans, a data-adaptive transformation based on an orthogonal matrix that diagonalizes the series' temporal Pearson correlation matrix. This approach enables more effective encoding and decoding in the decorrelated feature domain and can serve as a plug-in module to enhance existing forecasters. To enhance the representation learning for multivariate time series, we introduce a customized linear layer, NormLin, which employs a normalized weight matrix to capture multivariate dependencies. Empirically, the NormLin module shows a surprising performance advantage over multi-head self-attention, while requiring nearly half the FLOPs. Extensive experiments on 24 benchmarks and 140 forecasting tasks demonstrate that OLinear consistently achieves state-of-the-art performance with high efficiency. Notably, as a plug-in replacement for self-attention, the NormLin module consistently enhances Transformer-based forecasters. The code and datasets are available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/OLinear

We construct nets of curves in a rectangle R with special properties. The net is formed by two families of curves, "horizontal" and "vertical", each family foliates R, and every horizontal curve meets every vertical curve orthogonally. Moreover, every horizontal curve started at the left edge of R arrives to the right edge of R at the same height, and every vertical curve started at the bottom edge of R arrives to the top edge of R at a prescribed in advance longitude. The latter longitude function as a map from bottom to top can be chosen in advance as any small perturbation of the identity. Our motivation for this was to design some elliptic divergence form operators, for instance on one of the domains bounded by a Reifenberg flat curve in the plane, with the scalar coefficient and the corresponding elliptic measure being absolutely continuous with respect to the natural measure on the boundary (an object of a separate paper). The construction of our net of curves in a rectangle can also be interpreted as control problem, has an interest on its own, and, likely, has other applications.

Incorporating spatial information, particularly those influenced by climate, weather, and demographic factors, is crucial for improving underwriting precision and enhancing risk management in insurance. However, spatial data are often unstructured, high-dimensional, and difficult to integrate into predictive models. Embedding methods are needed to convert spatial data into meaningful representations for modelling tasks. We propose a novel multi-view contrastive learning framework for generating spatial embeddings that combine information from multiple spatial data sources. To train the model, we construct a spatial dataset that merges satellite imagery and OpenStreetMap features across Europe. The framework aligns these spatial views with coordinate-based encodings, producing low-dimensional embeddings that capture both spatial structure and contextual similarity. Once trained, the model generates embeddings directly from latitude-longitude pairs, enabling any dataset with coordinates to be enriched with meaningful spatial features without requiring access to the original spatial inputs. In a case study on French real estate prices, we compare models trained on raw coordinates against those using our spatial embeddings as inputs. The embeddings consistently improve predictive accuracy across generalised linear, additive, and boosting models, while providing interpretable spatial effects and demonstrating transferability to unseen regions.

We present Δ-UQ -- a novel, general-purpose uncertainty estimator using the concept of anchoring in predictive models. Anchoring works by first transforming the input into a tuple consisting of an anchor point drawn from a prior distribution, and a combination of the input sample with the anchor using a pretext encoding scheme. This encoding is such that the original input can be perfectly recovered from the tuple -- regardless of the choice of the anchor. Therefore, any predictive model should be able to predict the target response from the tuple alone (since it implicitly represents the input). Moreover, by varying the anchors for a fixed sample, we can estimate uncertainty in the prediction even using only a single predictive model. We find this uncertainty is deeply connected to improper sampling of the input data, and inherent noise, enabling us to estimate the total uncertainty in any system. With extensive empirical studies on a variety of use-cases, we demonstrate that Δ-UQ outperforms several competitive baselines. Specifically, we study model fitting, sequential model optimization, model based inversion in the regression setting and out of distribution detection, & calibration under distribution shifts for classification.

Retrieval systems rely on representations learned by increasingly powerful models. However, due to the high training cost and inconsistencies in learned representations, there is significant interest in facilitating communication between representations and ensuring compatibility across independently trained neural networks. In the literature, two primary approaches are commonly used to adapt different learned representations: affine transformations, which adapt well to specific distributions but can significantly alter the original representation, and orthogonal transformations, which preserve the original structure with strict geometric constraints but limit adaptability. A key challenge is adapting the latent spaces of updated models to align with those of previous models on downstream distributions while preserving the newly learned representation spaces. In this paper, we impose a relaxed orthogonality constraint, namely λ-Orthogonality regularization, while learning an affine transformation, to obtain distribution-specific adaptation while retaining the original learned representations. Extensive experiments across various architectures and datasets validate our approach, demonstrating that it preserves the model's zero-shot performance and ensures compatibility across model updates. Code available at: https://github.com/miccunifi/lambda_orthogonality.git{https://github.com/miccunifi/lambda\_orthogonality}.

Optimizers that exploit the matrix structure of gradients are central to modern LLM pre-training, with two distinct frontiers: explicit Kronecker-factored preconditioning -- most recently KL-Shampoo, which estimates the preconditioner via KL divergence minimization -- and orthogonalization of the gradient momentum, exemplified by Muon and analyzed as steepest descent under the spectral norm. The two routes are typically developed in isolation. We make a structural observation about KL-Shampoo's Kronecker preconditioners: their eigenvalue spectra exhibit a spike-and-flat shape -- a few dominant eigenvalues followed by an approximately uniform tail -- across layers and training stages, holding exactly under a rank-ρ signal-plus-noise gradient model. We exploit this structure by restricting one of KL-Shampoo's Kronecker factors to a parametric family aligned with the spike-and-flat shape: full spectral structure on a tracked r-dimensional subspace, single shared eigenvalue across the remaining n-r directions. On these directions, we apply orthogonalization. An identity shows that this orthogonalization recovers the algebraic form of full KL-Shampoo's preconditioner. On four pre-training scales (GPT-2 124M / 350M, LLaMA 134M / 450M), Pro-KLShampoo consistently outperforms KL-Shampoo at every subspace rank we test in validation loss, peak per-GPU memory, and wallclock time to reach each loss level.

The increasing availability of large-scale global datasets has generated a demand for scalable spatial prediction methods defined on spherical domains. Classical spatial models that rely on Euclidean distance representations are inappropriate for spherical data because planar projections distort geodesic distances and spatial neighborhood structures, while traditional kriging-based prediction methods are often computationally prohibitive for massive datasets. To address these challenges, we propose a Spherical DeepKriging framework for spatial prediction on S^2. The proposed approach constructs a flexible prediction model by integrating thin-plate spline (TPS) basis functions defined intrinsically on the sphere. Simulation studies and real data analyses are presented to demonstrate the superior predictive performance of the proposed method.

Tucker decomposition is a powerful tensor model to handle multi-aspect data. It demonstrates the low-rank property by decomposing the grid-structured data as interactions between a core tensor and a set of object representations (factors). A fundamental assumption of such decomposition is that there are finite objects in each aspect or mode, corresponding to discrete indexes of data entries. However, real-world data is often not naturally posed in this setting. For example, geographic data is represented as continuous indexes of latitude and longitude coordinates, and cannot fit tensor models directly. To generalize Tucker decomposition to such scenarios, we propose Functional Bayesian Tucker Decomposition (FunBaT). We treat the continuous-indexed data as the interaction between the Tucker core and a group of latent functions. We use Gaussian processes (GP) as functional priors to model the latent functions. Then, we convert each GP into a state-space prior by constructing an equivalent stochastic differential equation (SDE) to reduce computational cost. An efficient inference algorithm is developed for scalable posterior approximation based on advanced message-passing techniques. The advantage of our method is shown in both synthetic data and several real-world applications. We release the code of FunBaT at https://github.com/xuangu-fang/Functional-Bayesian-Tucker-Decomposition.

We address the problem of learning the dynamics of an unknown non-parametric system linking a target and a feature time series. The feature time series is measured on a sparse and irregular grid, while we have access to only a few points of the target time series. Once learned, we can use these dynamics to predict values of the target from the previous values of the feature time series. We frame this task as learning the solution map of a controlled differential equation (CDE). By leveraging the rich theory of signatures, we are able to cast this non-linear problem as a high-dimensional linear regression. We provide an oracle bound on the prediction error which exhibits explicit dependencies on the individual-specific sampling schemes. Our theoretical results are illustrated by simulations which show that our method outperforms existing algorithms for recovering the full time series while being computationally cheap. We conclude by demonstrating its potential on real-world epidemiological data.

Predictive Coding (PC) is a theoretical framework in cognitive science suggesting that the human brain processes cognition through spatiotemporal prediction of the visual world. Existing studies have developed spatiotemporal prediction neural networks based on the PC theory, emulating its two core mechanisms: Correcting predictions from residuals and hierarchical learning. However, these models do not show the enhancement of prediction skills on real-world forecasting tasks and ignore the Precision Weighting mechanism of PC theory. The precision weighting mechanism posits that the brain allocates more attention to signals with lower precision, contributing to the cognitive ability of human brains. This work introduces the Cognitive Diffusion Probabilistic Models (CogDPM), which demonstrate the connection between diffusion probabilistic models and PC theory. CogDPM features a precision estimation method based on the hierarchical sampling capabilities of diffusion models and weight the guidance with precision weights estimated by the inherent property of diffusion models. We experimentally show that the precision weights effectively estimate the data predictability. We apply CogDPM to real-world prediction tasks using the United Kindom precipitation and ERA surface wind datasets. Our results demonstrate that CogDPM outperforms both existing domain-specific operational models and general deep prediction models by providing more proficient forecasting.

The problem of computing optimal orthogonal approximation to a given matrix has attracted growing interest in machine learning. Notable applications include the recent Muon optimizer or Riemannian optimization on the Stiefel manifold. Among existing approaches, the Newton-Schulz iteration has emerged as a particularly effective solution, as it relies solely on matrix multiplications and thus achieves high computational efficiency on GPU hardware. Despite its efficiency, the method has inherent limitations - its coefficients are fixed and thus not optimized for a given matrix. In this paper we address this issue by proposing a Chebyshev-optimized version of Newton-Schulz (CANS). Based on the Chebyshev's alternance theorem, we theoretically derive optimal coefficients for the 3-rd order Newton-Schulz iteration and apply a Remez algorithm to compute optimal higher-degree polynomials. We leverage these polynomials to construct controlled approximate orthogonalization schemes, which is of interest in deep learning applications. Practically, we demonstrate the method's effectiveness in two key applications: orthogonalization in the Muon optimizer, and providing an efficient retraction alternative for Riemannian optimization on the Stiefel manifold.

Coordinate networks are widely used in computer vision due to their ability to represent signals as compressed, continuous entities. However, training these networks with first-order optimizers can be slow, hindering their use in real-time applications. Recent works have opted for shallow voxel-based representations to achieve faster training, but this sacrifices memory efficiency. This work proposes a solution that leverages second-order optimization methods to significantly reduce training times for coordinate networks while maintaining their compressibility. Experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach on various signal modalities, such as audio, images, videos, shape reconstruction, and neural radiance fields.

Unified fashion generation integrates tasks like virtual try-on and garment reconstruction into a single model to reduce task-specific adaptation costs. However, naive parameter sharing across semantically distinct tasks induces negative transfer through severe inter-task gradient conflict. We propose OrthoTryOn, a unified framework mitigating this interference within a shared Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) module. Its Orthogonal Subspace Projection (OSP) applies task-specific orthogonal rotations to bottleneck features, mapping them into decorrelated coordinate frames. To address residual semantic coupling at inference time, we further propose Fisher-guided Negative Guidance (FNG), a parameter-free strategy that utilizes diagonal Fisher information to quantify inter-task sensitivity overlap and explicitly repels generation trajectories from the most confusable task via Classifier-Free Guidance. Extensive experiments demonstrate that OrthoTryOn avoids the severe performance degradation typical of naive unified training and even surpasses independently trained task-specific models, achieving state-of-the-art results across multiple benchmarks while generalizing robustly across diverse diffusion backbones. Code is available at https://github.com/NJU-PCALab/OrthoTryOn.

During lung radiotherapy, the position of infrared reflective objects on the chest can be recorded to estimate the tumor location. However, radiotherapy systems have a latency inherent to robot control limitations that impedes the radiation delivery precision. Prediction with online learning of recurrent neural networks (RNN) allows for adaptation to non-stationary respiratory signals, but classical methods such as RTRL and truncated BPTT are respectively slow and biased. This study investigates the capabilities of unbiased online recurrent optimization (UORO) to forecast respiratory motion and enhance safety in lung radiotherapy. We used 9 observation records of the 3D position of 3 external markers on the chest and abdomen of healthy individuals breathing during intervals from 73s to 222s. The sampling frequency was 10Hz, and the amplitudes of the recorded trajectories range from 6mm to 40mm in the superior-inferior direction. We forecast the 3D location of each marker simultaneously with a horizon value between 0.1s and 2.0s, using an RNN trained with UORO. We compare its performance with an RNN trained with RTRL, LMS, and offline linear regression. We provide closed-form expressions for quantities involved in the loss gradient calculation in UORO, thereby making its implementation efficient. Training and cross-validation were performed during the first minute of each sequence. On average over the horizon values considered and the 9 sequences, UORO achieves the lowest root-mean-square (RMS) error and maximum error among the compared algorithms. These errors are respectively equal to 1.3mm and 8.8mm, and the prediction time per time step was lower than 2.8ms (Dell Intel core i9-9900K 3.60 GHz). Linear regression has the lowest RMS error for the horizon values 0.1s and 0.2s, followed by LMS for horizon values between 0.3s and 0.5s, and UORO for horizon values greater than 0.6s.

The capabilities and adoption of deep neural networks (DNNs) grow at an exhilarating pace: Vision models accurately classify human actions in videos and identify cancerous tissue in medical scans as precisely than human experts; large language models answer wide-ranging questions, generate code, and write prose, becoming the topic of everyday dinner-table conversations. Even though their uses are exhilarating, the continually increasing model sizes and computational complexities have a dark side. The economic cost and negative environmental externalities of training and serving models is in evident disharmony with financial viability and climate action goals. Instead of pursuing yet another increase in predictive performance, this dissertation is dedicated to the improvement of neural network efficiency. Specifically, a core contribution addresses the efficiency aspects during online inference. Here, the concept of Continual Inference Networks (CINs) is proposed and explored across four publications. CINs extend prior state-of-the-art methods developed for offline processing of spatio-temporal data and reuse their pre-trained weights, improving their online processing efficiency by an order of magnitude. These advances are attained through a bottom-up computational reorganization and judicious architectural modifications. The benefit to online inference is demonstrated by reformulating several widely used network architectures into CINs, including 3D CNNs, ST-GCNs, and Transformer Encoders. An orthogonal contribution tackles the concurrent adaptation and computational acceleration of a large source model into multiple lightweight derived models. Drawing on fusible adapter networks and structured pruning, Structured Pruning Adapters achieve superior predictive accuracy under aggressive pruning using significantly fewer learned weights compared to fine-tuning with pruning.

Coordinate-based neural representations have shown significant promise as an alternative to discrete, array-based representations for complex low dimensional signals. However, optimizing a coordinate-based network from randomly initialized weights for each new signal is inefficient. We propose applying standard meta-learning algorithms to learn the initial weight parameters for these fully-connected networks based on the underlying class of signals being represented (e.g., images of faces or 3D models of chairs). Despite requiring only a minor change in implementation, using these learned initial weights enables faster convergence during optimization and can serve as a strong prior over the signal class being modeled, resulting in better generalization when only partial observations of a given signal are available. We explore these benefits across a variety of tasks, including representing 2D images, reconstructing CT scans, and recovering 3D shapes and scenes from 2D image observations.

A variety of infinitely wide neural architectures (e.g., dense NNs, CNNs, and transformers) induce Gaussian process (GP) priors over their outputs. These relationships provide both an accurate characterization of the prior predictive distribution and enable the use of GP machinery to improve the uncertainty quantification of deep neural networks. In this work, we extend this connection to neural operators (NOs), a class of models designed to learn mappings between function spaces. Specifically, we show conditions for when arbitrary-depth NOs with Gaussian-distributed convolution kernels converge to function-valued GPs. Based on this result, we show how to compute the covariance functions of these NO-GPs for two NO parametrizations, including the popular Fourier neural operator (FNO). With this, we compute the posteriors of these GPs in regression scenarios, including PDE solution operators. This work is an important step towards uncovering the inductive biases of current FNO architectures and opens a path to incorporate novel inductive biases for use in kernel-based operator learning methods.

Real-world multichannel time series prediction faces growing demands for efficiency across edge and cloud environments, making channel compression a timely and essential problem. Motivated by success of Multiple-Input Multiple-Output (MIMO) methods, we propose a predictability-aware compression-decompression framework to reduce runtime, lower communication cost, and maintain prediction accuracy across diverse predictors. The core idea involves using a circular periodicity key matrix with orthogonality to capture underlying time series predictability during compression and to mitigate reconstruction errors during decompression by relaxing oversimplified data assumptions. Theoretical and empirical analyses show that the proposed framework is both time-efficient and scalable under a large number of channels. Extensive experiments on six datasets across various predictors demonstrate that the proposed method achieves superior overall performance by jointly considering prediction accuracy and runtime, while maintaining strong compatibility with diverse predictors.

The next Point-of-Interest (POI) recommendation task aims to predict users' next destinations based on their historical movement data and plays a key role in location-based services and personalized applications. Accurate next POI recommendation depends on effectively modeling geographic information and POI transition relations, which are crucial for capturing spatial dependencies and user movement patterns. While Large Language Models (LLMs) exhibit strong capabilities in semantic understanding and contextual reasoning, applying them to spatial tasks like next POI recommendation remains challenging. First, the infrequent nature of specific GPS coordinates makes it difficult for LLMs to model precise spatial contexts. Second, the lack of knowledge about POI transitions limits their ability to capture potential POI-POI relationships. To address these issues, we propose GA-LLM (Geography-Aware Large Language Model), a novel framework that enhances LLMs with two specialized components. The Geographic Coordinate Injection Module (GCIM) transforms GPS coordinates into spatial representations using hierarchical and Fourier-based positional encoding, enabling the model to understand geographic features from multiple perspectives. The POI Alignment Module (PAM) incorporates POI transition relations into the LLM's semantic space, allowing it to infer global POI relationships and generalize to unseen POIs. Experiments on three real-world datasets demonstrate the state-of-the-art performance of GA-LLM.

With the increasingly powerful performances and enormous scales of Pretrained Language Models (PLMs), promoting parameter efficiency in fine-tuning has become a crucial need for effective and efficient adaptation to various downstream tasks. One representative line of fine-tuning methods is Orthogonal Fine-tuning (OFT), which rigorously preserves the angular distances within the parameter space to preserve the pretrained knowledge. Despite the empirical effectiveness, OFT still suffers low parameter efficiency at O(d^2) and limited capability of downstream adaptation. Inspired by Givens rotation, in this paper, we proposed quasi-Givens Orthogonal Fine-Tuning (qGOFT) to address the problems. We first use O(d) Givens rotations to accomplish arbitrary orthogonal transformation in SO(d) with provable equivalence, reducing parameter complexity from O(d^2) to O(d). Then we introduce flexible norm and relative angular adjustments under soft orthogonality regularization to enhance the adaptation capability of downstream semantic deviations. Extensive experiments on various tasks and PLMs validate the effectiveness of our methods.

Given a matrix Ain R^{ntimes d} and a vector bin R^n, we consider the regression problem with ell_infty guarantees: finding a vector x'in R^d such that |x'-x^*|_infty leq epsilon{d}cdot |Ax^*-b|_2cdot |A^dagger| where x^*=argmin_{xin R^d}|Ax-b|_2. One popular approach for solving such ell_2 regression problem is via sketching: picking a structured random matrix Sin R^{mtimes n} with mll n and SA can be quickly computed, solve the ``sketched'' regression problem argmin_{xin R^d} |SAx-Sb|_2. In this paper, we show that in order to obtain such ell_infty guarantee for ell_2 regression, one has to use sketching matrices that are dense. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first user case in which dense sketching matrices are necessary. On the algorithmic side, we prove that there exists a distribution of dense sketching matrices with m=epsilon^{-2}dlog^3(n/delta) such that solving the sketched regression problem gives the ell_infty guarantee, with probability at least 1-delta. Moreover, the matrix SA can be computed in time O(ndlog n). Our row count is nearly-optimal up to logarithmic factors, and significantly improves the result in [Price, Song and Woodruff, ICALP'17], in which a super-linear in d rows, m=Omega(epsilon^{-2}d^{1+gamma}) for gamma=Theta(frac{loglog n{log d}}) is required. We also develop a novel analytical framework for ell_infty guarantee regression that utilizes the Oblivious Coordinate-wise Embedding (OCE) property introduced in [Song and Yu, ICML'21]. Our analysis is arguably much simpler and more general than [Price, Song and Woodruff, ICALP'17], and it extends to dense sketches for tensor product of vectors.

We present a new distribution-free conformal prediction algorithm for sequential data (e.g., time series), called the sequential predictive conformal inference (SPCI). We specifically account for the nature that time series data are non-exchangeable, and thus many existing conformal prediction algorithms are not applicable. The main idea is to adaptively re-estimate the conditional quantile of non-conformity scores (e.g., prediction residuals), upon exploiting the temporal dependence among them. More precisely, we cast the problem of conformal prediction interval as predicting the quantile of a future residual, given a user-specified point prediction algorithm. Theoretically, we establish asymptotic valid conditional coverage upon extending consistency analyses in quantile regression. Using simulation and real-data experiments, we demonstrate a significant reduction in interval width of SPCI compared to other existing methods under the desired empirical coverage.

Imposing orthogonality on the layers of neural networks is known to facilitate the learning by limiting the exploding/vanishing of the gradient; decorrelate the features; improve the robustness. This paper studies the theoretical properties of orthogonal convolutional layers.We establish necessary and sufficient conditions on the layer architecture guaranteeing the existence of an orthogonal convolutional transform. The conditions prove that orthogonal convolutional transforms exist for almost all architectures used in practice for 'circular' padding.We also exhibit limitations with 'valid' boundary conditions and 'same' boundary conditions with zero-padding.Recently, a regularization term imposing the orthogonality of convolutional layers has been proposed, and impressive empirical results have been obtained in different applications (Wang et al. 2020).The second motivation of the present paper is to specify the theory behind this.We make the link between this regularization term and orthogonality measures. In doing so, we show that this regularization strategy is stable with respect to numerical and optimization errors and that, in the presence of small errors and when the size of the signal/image is large, the convolutional layers remain close to isometric.The theoretical results are confirmed with experiments and the landscape of the regularization term is studied. Experiments on real data sets show that when orthogonality is used to enforce robustness, the parameter multiplying the regularization termcan be used to tune a tradeoff between accuracy and orthogonality, for the benefit of both accuracy and robustness.Altogether, the study guarantees that the regularization proposed in Wang et al. (2020) is an efficient, flexible and stable numerical strategy to learn orthogonal convolutional layers.

World modeling enables intelligence to anticipate consequences, guide interventions, and learn from interaction. Yet predictive models remain domain-specific: can a common learning principle support world modeling across radically different systems? We introduce JEPA-Anything, a domain-agnostic framework based on orthogonal predictive factorization (OPF). Extending joint-embedding predictive architectures, OPF decomposes latent targets into complementary factors, learns them through dedicated pathways, and recombines them within a shared predictive design. We evaluate JEPA-Anything across seven domains: vision, biology, clinical trajectories, control, molecular dynamics, physical fields, and weather. Experiments span representation learning, intervention prediction, out-of-distribution generalization, and long-horizon dynamics, including 10 matched dynamics tasks, forecasting of over 1,000 clinical events, and 100-step molecular rollouts across four systems. Against matched JEPA baselines, JEPA-Anything improves reported metrics on all 10 dynamics tasks and reduces single-intervention prediction error on Interventional Pong by 34.8%. It achieves the lowest one-step and 100-step molecular errors among compared methods in all four systems. Beyond prediction, a factor-nominated biological intervention receives experimental support in cell co-cultures, patient-derived organoids, tumor fragments, and mice; latent orbital modes recover the Keplerian scaling exponent with a fitted slope of -1.4991. These results support a common factorized predictive principle across heterogeneous worlds, connecting world modeling with intervention and experimentally grounded scientific discovery. Code: https://github.com/Gen-Verse/JEPA-Anything

Koopman theory turns nonlinear dynamics into a linear spectral problem. In computation, however, everything depends on a hard finite-dimensional choice: the observables must be expressive, nearly invariant under the dynamics, and, ideally, compatible with composition. Deep Koopman methods learn flexible coordinates, whereas structure-preserving methods enforce operator identities on fixed dictionaries. We combine these ideas by introducing Deep Embedded Multiplicative Dynamic Mode Decomposition (DeepMDMD), a method that learns a latent space and a partition of it, while enforcing the Koopman product rule as an exact algebraic constraint. Training alternates between an exact multiplicative operator update and a differentiable latent-clustering step that promotes Koopman closure. The result is a finite transition map on learned latent cells. Its nonzero spectrum lies on the unit circle, its dictionary is shaped by the dynamics rather than by ambient geometry, and forecasts are made in latent coordinates before being decoded to physical space. Across Hamiltonian, chaotic, and fluid examples, DeepMDMD learns dictionaries that are far more compact and dynamically coherent than those produced by geometric MDMD partitions. It reduces spectral pollution, reveals richer continuous-spectrum structure, and gives stable forecasts under severe noise. In high-dimensional flows, including a 158,624-dimensional cylinder wake and a noisy Re=20,000 lid-driven cavity, it preserves coherent structures and long-time spectral statistics where state-space MDMD fails. These results suggest a practical rule for Koopman learning: learn the coordinates, constrain the algebra.

We introduce Adaptive LeWorldModel (ALeWM), a world model based on a joint-embedding predictive architecture (JEPA) that learns to concentrate predictive information in compact prefixes of a wide latent representation. To encourage this ordering, ALeWM learns a sequence-conditioned distribution over prefix lengths and trains the predictor to estimate the full next embedding from a sampled input prefix. As standard anti-collapse objectives encourage variation across latent coordinates and do not organize them by predictive importance, we also introduce MixSIGReg. MixSIGReg regularizes the masked embeddings against a prior-weighted mixture with Gaussian active prefixes and zeros in the remaining coordinates. As a result, the ALeWM objective encourages early coordinates to retain information useful for prediction and recursive planning. Our analysis shows that the mixture distribution used by MixSIGReg assigns higher variance to earlier coordinate blocks and lower variance to later ones. In addition, we show that, under specified assumptions, prediction error is minimized by placing the information most useful for prediction in earlier blocks. Empirically, we study the behavior of ALeWM in a controlled dynamical system with known state variables and in goal-conditioned visual control. We show that ALeWM consistently achieves higher mean success rates than tuned fixed-width LeWM, with lower planning capacity on average.

A central premise in mechanistic interpretability is that meaningful concepts in language models are represented by linear features in activation space. For such features to support reliable interventions, manipulating one feature should not substantially alter the effects of others. In practice, however, feature entanglement leads to interference such that localized interventions can have unintended downstream effects. Motivated by the Independent Causal Mechanisms principle, we propose to constrain internal features to be almost orthogonal. We argue that this promotes modular representations amenable to causal intervention. We formalize this problem by characterizing the gap between an idealized isolated intervention and its realized effect on model outputs in terms of feature interference. We upper-bound the propagation of feature interference in terms of the self-coherence of the feature dictionary, and relate this discrepancy to an explicit orthogonality regularization on the dictionary itself. Empirically, we show that this regularization enables more isolated interventions on mathematical reasoning concepts while preserving model performance. Our code is available under https://github.com/mrtzmllr/sae-icm.

This paper tackles the data-driven approximation of unknown dynamical systems using Koopman-operator methods. Given a dictionary of functions, these methods approximate the projection of the action of the operator on the finite-dimensional subspace spanned by the dictionary. We propose the Tunable Symmetric Subspace Decomposition algorithm to refine the dictionary, balancing its expressiveness and accuracy. Expressiveness corresponds to the ability of the dictionary to describe the evolution of as many observables as possible and accuracy corresponds to the ability to correctly predict their evolution. Based on the observation that Koopman-invariant subspaces give rise to exact predictions, we reason that prediction accuracy is a function of the degree of invariance of the subspace generated by the dictionary and provide a data-driven measure to measure invariance proximity. The proposed algorithm iteratively prunes the initial functional space to identify a refined dictionary of functions that satisfies the desired level of accuracy while retaining as much of the original expressiveness as possible. We provide a full characterization of the algorithm properties and show that it generalizes both Extended Dynamic Mode Decomposition and Symmetric Subspace Decomposition. Simulations on planar systems show the effectiveness of the proposed methods in producing Koopman approximations of tunable accuracy that capture relevant information about the dynamical system.

While previous research in multivariate time series forecasting has focused on developing complex holistic models, this work advocates for a shift toward a granular, component-level understanding of their impacts. We propose TSCOMP, the first large-scale benchmark that systematically deconstructs deep forecasting methods into their core, fine-grained components--spanning series preprocessing, encoding strategies, network architectures including specific and large time-series models, and optimization methods. Using constrained orthogonal experimental design and extensive evaluations, we conduct multi-view analyses that reveal component effectiveness across different backbones, data characteristics, and their interactions. Beyond providing insights, this benchmark establishes a fine-grained performance corpus comprising over 20,000 model-dataset evaluations, which supports the learning of automated component selection, enabling zero-shot model construction on new datasets. Our experiments demonstrate that the corpus-driven approach, despite its simplicity, consistently outperforms state-of-the-art methods, validating the soundness of our evaluation design and confirming that systematic component selection surpasses manually designed complex architectures. All code and the performance corpus are publicly available at https://github.com/SUFE-AILAB/TSCOMP.

Learning feature representations of geographical space is vital for any machine learning model that integrates geolocated data, spanning application domains such as remote sensing, ecology, or epidemiology. Recent work mostly embeds coordinates using sine and cosine projections based on Double Fourier Sphere (DFS) features -- these embeddings assume a rectangular data domain even on global data, which can lead to artifacts, especially at the poles. At the same time, relatively little attention has been paid to the exact design of the neural network architectures these functional embeddings are combined with. This work proposes a novel location encoder for globally distributed geographic data that combines spherical harmonic basis functions, natively defined on spherical surfaces, with sinusoidal representation networks (SirenNets) that can be interpreted as learned Double Fourier Sphere embedding. We systematically evaluate the cross-product of positional embeddings and neural network architectures across various classification and regression benchmarks and synthetic evaluation datasets. In contrast to previous approaches that require the combination of both positional encoding and neural networks to learn meaningful representations, we show that both spherical harmonics and sinusoidal representation networks are competitive on their own but set state-of-the-art performances across tasks when combined. We provide source code at www.github.com/marccoru/locationencoder

Computer-use agents ground natural-language instructions in screenshots to locate interface elements, yet existing benchmarks do not isolate whether models bind relational language to the correct element. We introduce GUI-Primitives, a 994-item benchmark of contrastive instruction pairs over seven spatial relations in graphical user interfaces (left/right, above/below, containment, alignment, proximity, list ordinal, occlusion). Each pair holds the screenshot and anchor fixed while changing the relation expression, so the correct target moves between two designated candidates. Five annotators validate a 196-item subset (κ= 0.94 well-formedness; κ= 0.79 target selection). Nineteen vision-language models reach at most 32% strict point-in-box accuracy. Because models emit unconstrained coordinates, we classify each prediction by the candidate region it falls within. Predictions fall outside both candidates on 60-92% of items. Conditional on falling within a candidate region, target selection reaches 0.82-0.90 for horizontal position, vertical position, proximity, and list ordinal, but does not differ significantly from 0.50 for containment and occlusion: most failures reflect candidate localization rather than relation understanding. Across ten models, benchmark accuracy correlates with ScreenSpot-Pro accuracy (Spearman ρ= +0.74), an exploratory association at this sample size. Marking the two designated candidates raises selection accuracy by 35--57 percentage points, an oracle diagnostic that supplies the candidate set rather than a deployable method. We release the benchmark, predictions, and code.

Approximations to Gaussian processes based on inducing variables, combined with variational inference techniques, enable state-of-the-art sparse approaches to infer GPs at scale through mini batch-based learning. In this work, we address one limitation of sparse GPs, which is due to the challenge in dealing with a large number of inducing variables without imposing a special structure on the inducing inputs. In particular, we introduce a novel hierarchical prior, which imposes sparsity on the set of inducing variables. We treat our model variationally, and we experimentally show considerable computational gains compared to standard sparse GPs when sparsity on the inducing variables is realized considering the nearest inducing inputs of a random mini-batch of the data. We perform an extensive experimental validation that demonstrates the effectiveness of our approach compared to the state-of-the-art. Our approach enables the possibility to use sparse GPs using a large number of inducing points without incurring a prohibitive computational cost.

Linear probes are widely used in interpretability research and often compared by cosine similarity. The Mahalanobis cosine similarity (MCS) between two directions, which reweights the inner product by test data covariance, is a natural task-aware refinement. Ying et al. (2026) report that a probe's MCS to a reference probe trained on the out-of-distribution (OOD) data near-perfectly linearly predicts the probe's OOD AUROC (R^2 = 0.98). Here, we extend this empirical finding across models, layers, and concept domains, and prove this general phenomenon in closed form: For balanced classes whose projections are Gaussian, OOD AUROC and MCS to the reference probe are linear because both are sigmoid-shaped functions of the probe's signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) on the test data. The theory also predicts when this linearity fails, which we verify empirically. MCS offers a theoretically grounded and empirically effective alternative to Euclidean cosine similarity for comparing linear probes.

Orthogonalized-update optimizers such as Muon improve training of matrix-valued parameters, but existing extensions typically either rescale updates after orthogonalization or use heavier whitening-based preconditioners before it. We introduce {\method}, a lightweight family of pre-orthogonalization equilibration schemes for Muon with three forms: two-sided row/column normalization (RC), row normalization (R), and column normalization (C). By rebalancing the momentum matrix before finite-step Newton--Schulz orthogonalization, {\method} improves the geometry seen by orthogonalization. We show that finite-step orthogonalization is governed by the input spectrum, especially stable rank and condition number, and that row/column normalization acts as a zeroth-order surrogate for whitening. For hidden matrix weights, R is the default variant. Theoretically, {\method} (R) retains the standard mathcal O(T^{-1/4}) Muon-type nonconvex stationarity guarantee with decoupled weight decay and a horizon-free diminishing learning-rate schedule, and extends it to finite-step NS5 up to an explicit inexactness constant. In LLaMA2 pretraining on C4, {\method} (R) consistently outperforms Muon on 130M, 350M, and 1B models, with faster convergence and lower validation perplexity. The code is available at the https://github.com/MaeChd/muon-eq{MuonEq codebase}.

It is well noted that coordinate based MLPs benefit -- in terms of preserving high-frequency information -- through the encoding of coordinate positions as an array of Fourier features. Hitherto, the rationale for the effectiveness of these positional encodings has been solely studied through a Fourier lens. In this paper, we strive to broaden this understanding by showing that alternative non-Fourier embedding functions can indeed be used for positional encoding. Moreover, we show that their performance is entirely determined by a trade-off between the stable rank of the embedded matrix and the distance preservation between embedded coordinates. We further establish that the now ubiquitous Fourier feature mapping of position is a special case that fulfills these conditions. Consequently, we present a more general theory to analyze positional encoding in terms of shifted basis functions. To this end, we develop the necessary theoretical formulae and empirically verify that our theoretical claims hold in practice. Codes available at https://github.com/osiriszjq/Rethinking-positional-encoding.

Spatio-temporal predictive learning is a learning paradigm that enables models to learn spatial and temporal patterns by predicting future frames from given past frames in an unsupervised manner. Despite remarkable progress in recent years, a lack of systematic understanding persists due to the diverse settings, complex implementation, and difficult reproducibility. Without standardization, comparisons can be unfair and insights inconclusive. To address this dilemma, we propose OpenSTL, a comprehensive benchmark for spatio-temporal predictive learning that categorizes prevalent approaches into recurrent-based and recurrent-free models. OpenSTL provides a modular and extensible framework implementing various state-of-the-art methods. We conduct standard evaluations on datasets across various domains, including synthetic moving object trajectory, human motion, driving scenes, traffic flow and weather forecasting. Based on our observations, we provide a detailed analysis of how model architecture and dataset properties affect spatio-temporal predictive learning performance. Surprisingly, we find that recurrent-free models achieve a good balance between efficiency and performance than recurrent models. Thus, we further extend the common MetaFormers to boost recurrent-free spatial-temporal predictive learning. We open-source the code and models at https://github.com/chengtan9907/OpenSTL.

Next POI recommendation intends to forecast users' immediate future movements given their current status and historical information, yielding great values for both users and service providers. However, this problem is perceptibly complex because various data trends need to be considered together. This includes the spatial locations, temporal contexts, user's preferences, etc. Most existing studies view the next POI recommendation as a sequence prediction problem while omitting the collaborative signals from other users. Instead, we propose a user-agnostic global trajectory flow map and a novel Graph Enhanced Transformer model (GETNext) to better exploit the extensive collaborative signals for a more accurate next POI prediction, and alleviate the cold start problem in the meantime. GETNext incorporates the global transition patterns, user's general preference, spatio-temporal context, and time-aware category embeddings together into a transformer model to make the prediction of user's future moves. With this design, our model outperforms the state-of-the-art methods with a large margin and also sheds light on the cold start challenges within the spatio-temporal involved recommendation problems.

Orthogonality-based optimizers, such as Muon, have recently shown strong performance across large-scale training and community-driven efficiency challenges. However, these methods rely on a costly gradient orthogonalization step. Even efficient iterative approximations such as Newton-Schulz remain expensive, typically requiring dozens of matrix multiplications to converge. We introduce a preconditioning procedure that accelerates Newton-Schulz convergence and reduces its computational cost. We evaluate its impact and show that the overhead of our preconditioning can be made negligible. Furthermore, the faster convergence it enables allows us to remove one iteration out of the usual five without degrading approximation quality. Our publicly available implementation achieves up to a 2.8x speedup in the Newton-Schulz approximation. We also show that this has a direct impact on end-to-end training runtime with 5-10% improvement in realistic training scenarios across two efficiency-focused tasks. On challenging language or vision tasks, we validate that our method maintains equal or superior model performance while improving runtime. Crucially, these improvements require no hyperparameter tuning and can be adopted as a simple drop-in replacement. Our code is publicly available on github.

Optimization with matrix gradient orthogonalization has recently demonstrated impressive results in the training of deep neural networks (Jordan et al., 2024; Liu et al., 2025). In this paper, we provide a theoretical analysis of this approach. In particular, we show that the orthogonalized gradient method can be seen as a first-order trust-region optimization method, where the trust-region is defined in terms of the matrix spectral norm. Motivated by this observation, we develop the stochastic non-Euclidean trust-region gradient method with momentum, which recovers the Muon optimizer (Jordan et al., 2024) as a special case, along with normalized SGD and signSGD with momentum (Cutkosky and Mehta, 2020; Sun et al., 2023). In addition, we prove state-of-the-art convergence results for the proposed algorithm in a range of scenarios, which involve arbitrary non-Euclidean norms, constrained and composite problems, and non-convex, star-convex, first- and second-order smooth functions. Finally, our theoretical findings provide an explanation for several practical observations, including the practical superiority of Muon compared to the Orthogonal-SGDM algorithm of Tuddenham et al. (2022) and the importance of weight decay in the training of large-scale language models.

Hyperparameter tuning almost always means search: fit the model at every value on a grid, score each by cross-validation, and keep the winner. For spline regression that search is unnecessary. The optimal resolution can be solved for in closed form, to the accuracy an exhaustive search reaches, at a fraction of the compute. Three ingredients make this possible: classical approximation theory pins the squared bias to a known power of the resolution G, exactly the Kolmogorov n-width of the smoothness class; the basis dimension is an explicit polynomial in G; and leave-one-out error follows from a single fit via the PRESS identity. Balancing the two known curves gives the minimizer analytically. We extend this calculus to many coordinates by replacing ambient input dimension with interaction order, the number of active low-order components in an ANOVA decomposition, yielding a scaling law in which the optimal resolution and error are power functions of the effective density (sample size per active component), with input dimension absent from the exponent. The law becomes an algorithm. KORE (Kolmogorov-optimal Order-aware Resolution Estimation) fits two pilot resolutions, solves a leverage-calibrated 2x2 system for the bias and noise scales, and evaluates the closed-form plug-in resolution with a tiny leave-one-out certificate: about a dozen fits instead of a full grid sweep, with a consistency guarantee as the sample grows. Across additive and sparse pairwise targets up to 80 input dimensions, KORE matches exhaustive 3-fold cross-validation and the full classical ladder (GCV, Mallows' Cp, AIC, BIC) while fitting roughly 8x fewer models; on 36 real tabular datasets it ranks first among 21 methods in accuracy per unit of compute, ahead of tuned boosters and kernel machines. When complexity lives in low interaction order, solving for the resolution beats searching for it.

Motivated by a wide variety of applications, ranging from stochastic optimization to dimension reduction through variable selection, the problem of estimating gradients accurately is of crucial importance in statistics and learning theory. We consider here the classic regression setup, where a real valued square integrable r.v. Y is to be predicted upon observing a (possibly high dimensional) random vector X by means of a predictive function f(X) as accurately as possible in the mean-squared sense and study a nearest-neighbour-based pointwise estimate of the gradient of the optimal predictive function, the regression function m(x)=E[Ymid X=x]. Under classic smoothness conditions combined with the assumption that the tails of Y-m(X) are sub-Gaussian, we prove nonasymptotic bounds improving upon those obtained for alternative estimation methods. Beyond the novel theoretical results established, several illustrative numerical experiments have been carried out. The latter provide strong empirical evidence that the estimation method proposed works very well for various statistical problems involving gradient estimation, namely dimensionality reduction, stochastic gradient descent optimization and quantifying disentanglement.

GUI grounding, the task of mapping natural-language instructions to pixel coordinates, is crucial for autonomous agents, yet remains difficult for current VLMs. The core bottleneck is reliable patch-to-pixel mapping, which breaks when extrapolating to high-resolution displays unseen during training. Current approaches generate coordinates as text tokens directly from visual features, forcing the model to infer complex position-to-pixel mappings implicitly; as a result, accuracy degrades and failures proliferate on new resolutions. We address this with two complementary innovations. First, RULER tokens serve as explicit coordinate markers, letting the model reference positions similar to gridlines on a map and adjust rather than generate coordinates from scratch. Second, Interleaved MRoPE (I-MRoPE) improves spatial encoding by ensuring that width and height dimensions are represented equally, addressing the asymmetry of standard positional schemes. Experiments on ScreenSpot, ScreenSpot-V2, and ScreenSpot-Pro show consistent gains in grounding accuracy, with the largest improvements on high-resolution interfaces. By providing explicit spatial guidance rather than relying on implicit learning, our approach enables more reliable GUI automation across diverse resolutions and platforms.

Conformal prediction (CP) provides distribution-free prediction intervals for fixed forecasters, but its standard calibration procedure is often inefficient for time series data, where forecast errors are temporally dependent and change across time and operating conditions. Recent time series CP methods improve local calibration using recent, weighted, or localized residuals. Yet local calibration can remain indirect, since broad residual weighting or additional adaptation procedures may dilute the evidence most relevant to the current prediction. This motivates a simple retrieval and correction strategy that selects similar past residuals as local evidence and then corrects the coverage error left by retrieval. In this paper, we propose Retrieval--Corrected Conformal Prediction (RCCP), a retrieval-augmented calibration method for time series prediction intervals. RCCP builds an asymmetric interval from retrieved one-sided residuals and calibrates its normalized retrieval error with a scalar conformal correction. Thus, retrieval provides local residual evidence, while conformal correction determines the final scale needed for coverage. We provide a coverage-gap bound based on the stability of the normalized retrieval error distribution. Across standard benchmarks and backbone forecasters, RCCP attains the target coverage in every setting and achieves the lowest Winkler scores, with fewer severe misses. RCCP also achieves low calibration and inference overhead, showing that retrieval-corrected calibration is an effective and scalable approach to uncertainty quantification in time series forecasting. Code is available at https://github.com/jinsaaang/rccp.

Graph neural networks (GNN) have shown great advantages in many graph-based learning tasks but often fail to predict accurately for a task-based on sets of nodes such as link/motif prediction and so on. Many works have recently proposed to address this problem by using random node features or node distance features. However, they suffer from either slow convergence, inaccurate prediction, or high complexity. In this work, we revisit GNNs that allow using positional features of nodes given by positional encoding (PE) techniques such as Laplacian Eigenmap, Deepwalk, etc. GNNs with PE often get criticized because they are not generalizable to unseen graphs (inductive) or stable. Here, we study these issues in a principled way and propose a provable solution, a class of GNN layers termed PEG with rigorous mathematical analysis. PEG uses separate channels to update the original node features and positional features. PEG imposes permutation equivariance w.r.t. the original node features and imposes O(p) (orthogonal group) equivariance w.r.t. the positional features simultaneously, where p is the dimension of used positional features. Extensive link prediction experiments over 8 real-world networks demonstrate the advantages of PEG in generalization and scalability.

Recent advances to combine structured regression models and deep neural networks for better interpretability, more expressiveness, and statistically valid uncertainty quantification demonstrate the versatility of semi-structured neural networks (SSNs). We show that techniques to properly identify the contributions of the different model components in SSNs, however, lead to suboptimal network estimation, slower convergence, and degenerated or erroneous predictions. In order to solve these problems while preserving favorable model properties, we propose a non-invasive post-hoc orthogonalization (PHO) that guarantees identifiability of model components and provides better estimation and prediction quality. Our theoretical findings are supported by numerical experiments, a benchmark comparison as well as a real-world application to COVID-19 infections.

We propose Orthogonal Monte Carlo Dropout, a mechanism that enforces strict orthogonality when combining sparse semantic vectors without extra time complexity. Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA), a popular fine-tuning method for large models, typically trains a module to represent a specific concept such as an object or a style. When multiple LoRA modules are merged, for example to generate an object in a particular style, their outputs (semantic vectors) may interfere with each other. Our method guarantees that merged LoRA modules remain orthogonal and thus free from direct interference. However, empirical analysis reveals that such orthogonality does not lead to the semantic disentanglement highlighted in prior work on compositional adaptation. This finding suggests that inter-LoRA orthogonality alone may be insufficient for achieving true semantic compositionality, prompting a re-examination of its role in adapter merging.

We develop a method to generate predictive regions that cover a multivariate response variable with a user-specified probability. Our work is composed of two components. First, we use a deep generative model to learn a representation of the response that has a unimodal distribution. Existing multiple-output quantile regression approaches are effective in such cases, so we apply them on the learned representation, and then transform the solution to the original space of the response. This process results in a flexible and informative region that can have an arbitrary shape, a property that existing methods lack. Second, we propose an extension of conformal prediction to the multivariate response setting that modifies any method to return sets with a pre-specified coverage level. The desired coverage is theoretically guaranteed in the finite-sample case for any distribution. Experiments conducted on both real and synthetic data show that our method constructs regions that are significantly smaller compared to existing techniques.

Bayesian predictive inference provides a principled framework for uncertainty quantification, data efficiency, and robust generalization. However, exact inference is often intractable, and scalable approximations may remain computationally expensive or require restrictive modeling assumptions that degrade predictive performance. Prior-Data Fitted and in-context models have recently emerged as an amortized alternative by learning to map datasets directly to predictive distributions, but existing approaches are tightly coupled to the support of the training prior and lack explicit mechanisms for adapting to new priors at test time, resulting in limited robustness under distribution shift. We introduce a multi-task in-context learning framework for amortized hierarchical Bayesian predictive inference that explicitly represents prior information as a prefix of in-context datasets. A transformer trained on sequences of prior and target tasks learns to adapt its predictions across families of priors. On a suite of evaluations with increasing difficulty, including out-of-meta-distribution priors and priors with high-dimensional latent structures, our method matches oracle Bayesian predictors while being orders of magnitude faster. We further demonstrate its practical relevance on a real-world spatiotemporal temperature prediction benchmark. Code is available at https://github.com/martianmartina/multi-task-bayesian-icl/.

Object detection has long been dominated by traditional coordinate regression-based models, such as YOLO, DETR, and Grounding DINO. Although recent efforts have attempted to leverage MLLMs to tackle this task, they face challenges like low recall rate, duplicate predictions, coordinate misalignment, etc. In this work, we bridge this gap and propose Rex-Omni, a 3B-scale MLLM that achieves state-of-the-art object perception performance. On benchmarks like COCO and LVIS, Rex-Omni attains performance comparable to or exceeding regression-based models (e.g., DINO, Grounding DINO) in a zero-shot setting. This is enabled by three key designs: 1) Task Formulation: we use special tokens to represent quantized coordinates from 0 to 999, reducing the model's learning difficulty and improving token efficiency for coordinate prediction; 2) Data Engines: we construct multiple data engines to generate high-quality grounding, referring, and pointing data, providing semantically rich supervision for training; \3) Training Pipelines: we employ a two-stage training process, combining supervised fine-tuning on 22 million data with GRPO-based reinforcement post-training. This RL post-training leverages geometry-aware rewards to effectively bridge the discrete-to-continuous coordinate prediction gap, improve box accuracy, and mitigate undesirable behaviors like duplicate predictions that stem from the teacher-guided nature of the initial SFT stage. Beyond conventional detection, Rex-Omni's inherent language understanding enables versatile capabilities such as object referring, pointing, visual prompting, GUI grounding, spatial referring, OCR and key-pointing, all systematically evaluated on dedicated benchmarks. We believe that Rex-Omni paves the way for more versatile and language-aware visual perception systems.

Riemannian submanifold optimization with momentum is computationally challenging because, to ensure that the iterates remain on the submanifold, we often need to solve difficult differential equations. Here, we simplify such difficulties for a class of structured symmetric positive-definite matrices with the affine-invariant metric. We do so by proposing a generalized version of the Riemannian normal coordinates that dynamically orthonormalizes the metric and locally converts the problem into an unconstrained problem in the Euclidean space. We use our approach to simplify existing approaches for structured covariances and develop matrix-inverse-free 2^nd-order optimizers for deep learning in low precision settings. Code: https://github.com/yorkerlin/StructuredNGD-DL

Sharp bounds on two potential-outcome means need not combine into sharp bounds on their difference. We characterize exactly when composition is guaranteed across environments sharing a joint potential-outcome law. For binary treatment and outcome, fix strict selection-probability bounds and interior treatment propensities. Subtracting the full model's sharp mean intervals gives sharp average-treatment-effect bounds for every compatible observed law if and only if the absolute selection bounds coincide across environments. Under this alignment, the complete mean region is rectangular; its endpoints and attaining causal models require O(K) arithmetic operations for K environments. For every mismatch, failure occurs on a relatively open set of positive observed tables at the prescribed propensities and persists under small joint drift. We give computable perturbation certificates and an exact family whose gap is first order in the mismatch. A separate finite-confounding family shows when the lost joint information changes an identified causal sign. These results distinguish local marginal sharpness from joint attainability after combining environments.

As models and data scale, independently trained networks often induce analogous notions of similarity. But, matching similarities is weaker than establishing an explicit correspondence between the representation spaces, especially for multimodal models, where consistency must hold not only within each modality, but also for the learned image-text coupling. We therefore ask: given two independently trained multimodal contrastive models (with encoders (f, g) and (f,g)) -- trained on different distributions and with different architectures -- does a systematic geometric relationship exist between their embedding spaces? If so, what form does it take, and does it hold uniformly across modalities? In this work, we show that across model families such as CLIP, SigLIP, and FLAVA, this geometric relationship is well approximated by an orthogonal map (up to a global mean shift), i.e., there exists an orthogonal map Q where Q^top Q = I such that f(x)approx Q f(x) for paired images x. Strikingly, the same Q simultaneously aligns the text encoders i.e., g(y)approx Q g(y) for texts y. Theoretically, we prove that if the multimodal kernel agrees across models on a small anchor set i.e. langle f(x), g(y)rangle approx langle f(x), g(y)rangle, then the two models must be related by a single orthogonal map Q and the same Q maps images and text across models. More broadly, this finding enables backward-compatible model upgrades, avoiding costly re-embedding, and has implications for the privacy of learned representations. Our project page: https://canonical-multimodal.github.io/

Weight-space merging aims to combine multiple fine-tuned LLMs into a single model without retraining, yet most existing approaches remain fundamentally parameter-space heuristics. This creates three practical limitations. First, linear averaging, task vectors, and related rules operate on Euclidean coordinates, even though the desired goal is to merge functionality, i.e., predictive behaviors across tasks. Second, when the source checkpoints are farther apart or more heterogeneous, Euclidean blends often trigger representation collapse, manifested as activation variance shrinkage and effective-rank degradation, which sharply degrades accuracy. Third, many geometry-inspired methods are most natural for two-model interpolation and do not extend cleanly to merging N>2 experts with a principled objective. We address these issues by formulating model merging as computing a weighted Karcher mean on the Fisher--Rao manifold, which is locally equivalent to minimizing a KL-based function distance between predictive distributions. We derive a practical fixed-point algorithm using a lightweight spherical proxy that preserves norms and generalizes directly to multi-expert merging. Across various benchmarks and collapse diagnostics, our method remains stable as the number and heterogeneity of merged models increase, consistently outperforming prior baselines.

Neural operators, as an efficient surrogate model for learning the solutions of PDEs, have received extensive attention in the field of scientific machine learning. Among them, attention-based neural operators have become one of the mainstreams in related research. However, existing approaches overfit the limited training data due to the considerable number of parameters in the attention mechanism. To address this, we develop an orthogonal attention based on the eigendecomposition of the kernel integral operator and the neural approximation of eigenfunctions. The orthogonalization naturally poses a proper regularization effect on the resulting neural operator, which aids in resisting overfitting and boosting generalization. Experiments on six standard neural operator benchmark datasets comprising both regular and irregular geometries show that our method can outperform competing baselines with decent margins.

Positional encoding mechanisms enable Transformers to model sequential structure and long-range dependencies in text. While absolute positional encodings struggle with extrapolation to longer sequences due to fixed positional representations, and relative approaches like Alibi exhibit performance degradation on extremely long contexts, the widely-used Rotary Positional Encoding (RoPE) introduces oscillatory attention patterns that hinder stable long-distance dependency modelling. We address these limitations through a geometric reformulation of positional encoding. Drawing inspiration from Lorentz transformations in hyperbolic geometry, we propose Hyperbolic Rotary Positional Encoding (HoPE), which leverages hyperbolic functions to implement Lorentz rotations on token representations. Theoretical analysis demonstrates that RoPE is a special case of our generalized formulation. HoPE fundamentally resolves RoPE's slation issues by enforcing monotonic decay of attention weights with increasing token distances. Extensive experimental results, including perplexity evaluations under several extended sequence benchmarks, show that HoPE consistently exceeds existing positional encoding methods. These findings underscore HoPE's enhanced capacity for representing and generalizing long-range dependencies. Data and code will be available.

Neural operators have emerged as powerful data-driven solvers for PDEs, offering substantial acceleration over classical numerical methods. However, existing transformer-based operators still face critical challenges when modeling PDEs on complex geometries: directly processing over massive mesh points is computationally expensive, while operating in raw discretization coordinates may obscure the intrinsic geometry where physical interactions are more naturally expressed. To address these limitations, we introduce the Charted Axial Transformer Operator (CATO), a geometry-adaptive and derivative-aware neural operator for PDEs on general geometries. Instead of applying attention directly in the physical coordinate system, CATO learns a continuous latent chart that maps mesh coordinates into a learned chart space, where chart-conditioned axial attention efficiently captures long-range dependencies with reduced computational cost. In addition, CATO introduces a derivative-aware physics loss for steady-state PDEs that jointly supervises solution values, mesh-consistent gradients, and an auxiliary flux-like field, improving physical fidelity and reducing oversmoothing. We further provide a theoretical approximation result showing that, under a favorable chart, charted axial attention can represent low-rank axial solution operators with controlled error, and that small chart perturbations induce bounded approximation degradation. CATO achieves the best performance across all evaluated datasets, yielding an average improvement of approximately 26.76\% over the strongest competing baselines while reducing the number of parameters by 81.98\%. These results highlight the effectiveness of learning geometry-adaptive charts and derivative-aware physical supervision for accurate and efficient PDE operator learning.

There is a growing gap between the impressive results of deep image generative models and classical algorithms that offer theoretical guarantees. The former suffer from mode collapse or memorization issues, limiting their application to scientific data. The latter require restrictive assumptions such as log-concavity to escape the curse of dimensionality. We partially bridge this gap by introducing conditionally strongly log-concave (CSLC) models, which factorize the data distribution into a product of conditional probability distributions that are strongly log-concave. This factorization is obtained with orthogonal projectors adapted to the data distribution. It leads to efficient parameter estimation and sampling algorithms, with theoretical guarantees, although the data distribution is not globally log-concave. We show that several challenging multiscale processes are conditionally log-concave using wavelet packet orthogonal projectors. Numerical results are shown for physical fields such as the varphi^4 model and weak lensing convergence maps with higher resolution than in previous works.

Accurate and reliable C-arm positioning is essential for fluoroscopy-guided interventions. However, clinical workflows rely on manual alignment that increases radiation exposure and procedural delays. In this work, we present a pipeline that autonomously navigates the C-arm to predefined anatomical landmarks utilizing X-ray images. Given an input X-ray image from an arbitrary starting location on the operating table, the model predicts a 3D displacement vector toward each target landmark along the body. To ensure reliable deployment, we capture both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties in the model's predictions and further calibrate them using conformal prediction. The derived prediction regions are interpreted as 3D confidence regions around the predicted landmark locations. The training framework combines a probabilistic loss with skeletal pose regularization to encourage anatomically plausible outputs. We validate our approach on a synthetic X-ray dataset generated from DeepDRR. Results show not only strong localization accuracy across multiple architectures but also well-calibrated prediction bounds. These findings highlight the pipeline's potential as a component in safe and reliable autonomous C-arm systems. Code is available at https://github.com/AhmadArrabi/C_arm_guidance_APAH

Uncertainty is almost ubiquitous in safety-critical autonomous systems due to dynamic environments and the integration of learning-based components. Quantifying this uncertainty--particularly for time-series predictions in multi-stage optimization--is essential for safe control and verification tasks. Conformal Prediction (CP) is a distribution-free uncertainty quantification tool with rigorous finite-sample guarantees, but its performance relies on the design of the nonconformity measure, which remains challenging for time-series data. Existing methods either overfit on small datasets, or are computationally intensive on long-time-horizon problems and/or large datasets. To overcome these issues, we propose a new parameterization of the score functions and formulate an optimization program to compute the associated parameters. The optimal parameters directly lead to norm-ball regions that constitute minimal-average-radius conformal sets. We then provide a reformulation of the underlying optimization program to enable faster computation. We provide theoretical proofs on both the validity and efficiency of predictors constructed based on the proposed approach. Numerical results on various case studies demonstrate that our method outperforms state-of-the-art methods in terms of efficiency, with much lower computational requirements.

Despite their many desirable properties, Gaussian processes (GPs) are often compared unfavorably to deep neural networks (NNs) for lacking the ability to learn representations. Recent efforts to bridge the gap between GPs and deep NNs have yielded a new class of inter-domain variational GPs in which the inducing variables correspond to hidden units of a feedforward NN. In this work, we examine some practical issues associated with this approach and propose an extension that leverages the orthogonal decomposition of GPs to mitigate these limitations. In particular, we introduce spherical inter-domain features to construct more flexible data-dependent basis functions for both the principal and orthogonal components of the GP approximation and show that incorporating NN activation features under this framework not only alleviates these shortcomings but is more scalable than alternative strategies. Experiments on multiple benchmark datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach.

In recent years, huge progress has been made on learning neural implicit representations from multi-view images for 3D reconstruction. As an additional input complementing coordinates, using sinusoidal functions as positional encodings plays a key role in revealing high frequency details with coordinate-based neural networks. However, high frequency positional encodings make the optimization unstable, which results in noisy reconstructions and artifacts in empty space. To resolve this issue in a general sense, we introduce to learn neural implicit representations with quantized coordinates, which reduces the uncertainty and ambiguity in the field during optimization. Instead of continuous coordinates, we discretize continuous coordinates into discrete coordinates using nearest interpolation among quantized coordinates which are obtained by discretizing the field in an extremely high resolution. We use discrete coordinates and their positional encodings to learn implicit functions through volume rendering. This significantly reduces the variations in the sample space, and triggers more multi-view consistency constraints on intersections of rays from different views, which enables to infer implicit function in a more effective way. Our quantized coordinates do not bring any computational burden, and can seamlessly work upon the latest methods. Our evaluations under the widely used benchmarks show our superiority over the state-of-the-art. Our code is available at https://github.com/MachinePerceptionLab/CQ-NIR.

Motion forecasting is central to visual intelligence: agents must anticipate how objects will move in order to plan actions, reason about physical interactions, and synthesize realistic futures. We argue that 3D points in world coordinates provide a general representation that is class-agnostic, view-stable, compact, and directly useful for downstream tasks. We formalize the task of goal-conditioned 3D point motion forecasting: given a short visual history, a set of 3D query points on an object of interest, and a language description of the intended goal, the model predicts the future 3D trajectory of each point. We introduce a full stack to study this task at scale: (1) MolmoMotion-1M is a large corpus of action-described, object-grounded 3D point trajectories annotated from 1.16M unconstrained videos; (2) PointMotionBench is a human-verified benchmark spanning 111 object categories and 61 motion types; and (3) MolmoMotion is a general motion forecasting model that supports both autoregressive coordinate prediction and flow-matching-based trajectory generation. MolmoMotion accurately predicts diverse motion patterns with different language instructions, and significantly outperforms existing motion prediction baselines on PointMotionBench. Finally, we show that the learned 3D motion prior transfers well to downstream applications: it improves training efficiency and generalization for robot manipulation, and its predicted trajectories provide effective motion guidance for generative models to synthesize videos with more realistic object motion.

This paper considers the problem of variable selection allowing for parameter instability. It distinguishes between signal and pseudo-signal variables that are correlated with the target variable, and noise variables that are not, and investigate the asymptotic properties of the One Covariate at a Time Multiple Testing (OCMT) method proposed by Chudik et al. (2018) under parameter insatiability. It is established that OCMT continues to asymptotically select an approximating model that includes all the signals and none of the noise variables. Properties of post selection regressions are also investigated, and in-sample fit of the selected regression is shown to have the oracle property. The theoretical results support the use of unweighted observations at the selection stage of OCMT, whilst applying down-weighting of observations only at the forecasting stage. Monte Carlo and empirical applications show that OCMT without down-weighting at the selection stage yields smaller mean squared forecast errors compared to Lasso, Adaptive Lasso, and boosting.

Existing self-supervised learning (SSL) methods primarily learn object-invariant representations but often neglect the spatial structure and relationships among object parts. To address this limitation, we introduce Spatial Prediction (SP), a spatially aware pretext regression task that predicts the relative position and scale between a pair of disentangled local views from the same image. By modeling part-to-part relationships in a continuous geometric space, SP encourages representations to capture fine-grained spatial dependencies beyond invariant categorical semantics, thereby learning the compositional structure of visual scenes. SP is implemented as a decoupled plug-in and can be seamlessly integrated into diverse SSL frameworks. Extensive experiments show consistent improvements across image recognition, fine-grained classification, semantic segmentation, and depth estimation, as well as substantial gains in out-of-distribution robustness for object recognition. To evaluate spatial reasoning, we introduce (1) a position and scale prediction task on image patch pairs and (2) a jigsaw understanding task requiring patch reordering and recognition after reconstruction. Strong performance on these tasks indicates improved spatial structure and geometric awareness. Overall, explicitly modeling spatial information provides an effective inductive bias for SSL, leading to more structured representations and better generalization. Code and models will be released.

Recently, many arbitrary-oriented object detection (AOOD) methods have been proposed and attracted widespread attention in many fields. However, most of them are based on anchor-boxes or standard Gaussian heatmaps. Such label assignment strategy may not only fail to reflect the shape and direction characteristics of arbitrary-oriented objects, but also have high parameter-tuning efforts. In this paper, a novel AOOD method called General Gaussian Heatmap Label Assignment (GGHL) is proposed. Specifically, an anchor-free object-adaptation label assignment (OLA) strategy is presented to define the positive candidates based on two-dimensional (2-D) oriented Gaussian heatmaps, which reflect the shape and direction features of arbitrary-oriented objects. Based on OLA, an oriented-bounding-box (OBB) representation component (ORC) is developed to indicate OBBs and adjust the Gaussian center prior weights to fit the characteristics of different objects adaptively through neural network learning. Moreover, a joint-optimization loss (JOL) with area normalization and dynamic confidence weighting is designed to refine the misalign optimal results of different subtasks. Extensive experiments on public datasets demonstrate that the proposed GGHL improves the AOOD performance with low parameter-tuning and time costs. Furthermore, it is generally applicable to most AOOD methods to improve their performance including lightweight models on embedded platforms.

Deep neural networks have achieved remarkable performance on a range of classification tasks, with softmax cross-entropy (CE) loss emerging as the de-facto objective function. The CE loss encourages features of a class to have a higher projection score on the true class-vector compared to the negative classes. However, this is a relative constraint and does not explicitly force different class features to be well-separated. Motivated by the observation that ground-truth class representations in CE loss are orthogonal (one-hot encoded vectors), we develop a novel loss function termed `Orthogonal Projection Loss' (OPL) which imposes orthogonality in the feature space. OPL augments the properties of CE loss and directly enforces inter-class separation alongside intra-class clustering in the feature space through orthogonality constraints on the mini-batch level. As compared to other alternatives of CE, OPL offers unique advantages e.g., no additional learnable parameters, does not require careful negative mining and is not sensitive to the batch size. Given the plug-and-play nature of OPL, we evaluate it on a diverse range of tasks including image recognition (CIFAR-100), large-scale classification (ImageNet), domain generalization (PACS) and few-shot learning (miniImageNet, CIFAR-FS, tiered-ImageNet and Meta-dataset) and demonstrate its effectiveness across the board. Furthermore, OPL offers better robustness against practical nuisances such as adversarial attacks and label noise. Code is available at: https://github.com/kahnchana/opl.

Orthogonal gradient updates have emerged as a promising direction in optimization for machine learning. However, traditional approaches such as SVD/QR decomposition incur prohibitive computational costs of O(n^3) and underperform compared to well-tuned SGD with momentum, since momentum is applied only after strict orthogonalization. Recent advances, such as Muon, improve efficiency by applying momentum before orthogonalization and producing semi-orthogonal matrices via Newton-Schulz iterations, reducing complexity to O(n^2). Nevertheless, quadratic costs remain a bottleneck. In this work, we study the semi-orthogonal properties of momentum-based updates and develop a method to bound momentum updates under a spectral-norm trust region, preserving directional information without requiring explicit semi-orthogonalization. We propose AuON (Alternative Unit-norm momentum updates by Normalized nonlinear scaling), a linear-time optimizer that achieves strong performance without constructing semi-orthogonal matrices, while preserving structural alignment and reconditioning ill-posed updates. Our approach combines hyperbolic-cosine RMS scaling transformations with normalization, demonstrating both effectiveness and computational efficiency compared to Newton-Schulz methods. We further introduce a hybrid variant (Hybrid-AuON) that applies a single Newton-Schulz iteration. Experiments across vision and language benchmarks show that AuON and its hybrid variant achieve performance comparable to strong baselines such as AdamW and Muon. Code is available at: https://github.com/ryyzn9/AuON

Visual retrieval systems face significant challenges when updating models with improved representations due to misalignment between the old and new representations. The costly and resource-intensive backfilling process involves recalculating feature vectors for images in the gallery set whenever a new model is introduced. To address this, prior research has explored backward-compatible training methods that enable direct comparisons between new and old representations without backfilling. Despite these advancements, achieving a balance between backward compatibility and the performance of independently trained models remains an open problem. In this paper, we address it by expanding the representation space with additional dimensions and learning an orthogonal transformation to achieve compatibility with old models and, at the same time, integrate new information. This transformation preserves the original feature space's geometry, ensuring that our model aligns with previous versions while also learning new data. Our Orthogonal Compatible Aligned (OCA) approach eliminates the need for re-indexing during model updates and ensures that features can be compared directly across different model updates without additional mapping functions. Experimental results on CIFAR-100 and ImageNet-1k demonstrate that our method not only maintains compatibility with previous models but also achieves state-of-the-art accuracy, outperforming several existing methods.

Precise spatial modeling in the operating room (OR) is foundational to many clinical tasks, supporting intraoperative awareness, hazard avoidance, and surgical decision-making. While existing approaches leverage large-scale multimodal datasets for latent-space alignment to implicitly learn spatial relationships, they overlook the 3D capabilities of MLLMs. However, this approach raises two issues: (1) Operating rooms typically lack multiple video and audio sensors, making multimodal 3D data difficult to obtain; (2) Training solely on readily available 2D data fails to capture fine-grained details in complex scenes. To address this gap, we introduce Spatial-ORMLLM, the first large vision-language model for 3D spatial reasoning in operating rooms using only RGB modality to infer volumetric and semantic cues, enabling downstream medical tasks with detailed and holistic spatial context. Spatial-ORMLLM incorporates a Spatial-Enhanced Feature Fusion Block, which integrates 2D modality inputs with rich 3D spatial knowledge extracted by the estimation algorithm and then feeds the combined features into the visual tower. By employing a unified end-to-end MLLM framework, it combines powerful spatial features with textual features to deliver robust 3D scene reasoning without any additional expert annotations or sensor inputs. Experiments on multiple benchmark clinical datasets demonstrate that Spatial-ORMLLM achieves state-of-the-art performance and generalizes robustly to previously unseen surgical scenarios and downstream tasks.

Feature selection is the problem of selecting a subset of features for a machine learning model that maximizes model quality subject to a budget constraint. For neural networks, prior methods, including those based on ell_1 regularization, attention, and other techniques, typically select the entire feature subset in one evaluation round, ignoring the residual value of features during selection, i.e., the marginal contribution of a feature given that other features have already been selected. We propose a feature selection algorithm called Sequential Attention that achieves state-of-the-art empirical results for neural networks. This algorithm is based on an efficient one-pass implementation of greedy forward selection and uses attention weights at each step as a proxy for feature importance. We give theoretical insights into our algorithm for linear regression by showing that an adaptation to this setting is equivalent to the classical Orthogonal Matching Pursuit (OMP) algorithm, and thus inherits all of its provable guarantees. Our theoretical and empirical analyses offer new explanations towards the effectiveness of attention and its connections to overparameterization, which may be of independent interest.

Offline optimization is an important task in numerous material engineering domains where online experimentation to collect data is too expensive and needs to be replaced by an in silico maximization of a surrogate of the black-box function. Although such a surrogate can be learned from offline data, its prediction might not be reliable outside the offline data regime, which happens when the surrogate has narrow prediction margin and is (therefore) sensitive to small perturbations of its parameterization. This raises the following questions: (1) how to regulate the sensitivity of a surrogate model; and (2) whether conditioning an offline optimizer with such less sensitive surrogate will lead to better optimization performance. To address these questions, we develop an optimizable sensitivity measurement for the surrogate model, which then inspires a sensitivity-informed regularizer that is applicable to a wide range of offline optimizers. This development is both orthogonal and synergistic to prior research on offline optimization, which is demonstrated in our extensive experiment benchmark.

We study the connection between multicalibration and boosting for squared error regression. First we prove a useful characterization of multicalibration in terms of a ``swap regret'' like condition on squared error. Using this characterization, we give an exceedingly simple algorithm that can be analyzed both as a boosting algorithm for regression and as a multicalibration algorithm for a class H that makes use only of a standard squared error regression oracle for H. We give a weak learning assumption on H that ensures convergence to Bayes optimality without the need to make any realizability assumptions -- giving us an agnostic boosting algorithm for regression. We then show that our weak learning assumption on H is both necessary and sufficient for multicalibration with respect to H to imply Bayes optimality. We also show that if H satisfies our weak learning condition relative to another class C then multicalibration with respect to H implies multicalibration with respect to C. Finally we investigate the empirical performance of our algorithm experimentally using an open source implementation that we make available. Our code repository can be found at https://github.com/Declancharrison/Level-Set-Boosting.

While complex simulations of physical systems have been widely used in engineering and scientific computing, lowering their often prohibitive computational requirements has only recently been tackled by deep learning approaches. In this paper, we present GraphSplineNets, a novel deep-learning method to speed up the forecasting of physical systems by reducing the grid size and number of iteration steps of deep surrogate models. Our method uses two differentiable orthogonal spline collocation methods to efficiently predict response at any location in time and space. Additionally, we introduce an adaptive collocation strategy in space to prioritize sampling from the most important regions. GraphSplineNets improve the accuracy-speedup tradeoff in forecasting various dynamical systems with increasing complexity, including the heat equation, damped wave propagation, Navier-Stokes equations, and real-world ocean currents in both regular and irregular domains.

We present, for the first time, a novel theoretical approach to address the problem of correspondence free multivector cloud registration in conformal geometric algebra. Such formalism achieves several favorable properties. Primarily, it forms an orthogonal automorphism that extends beyond the typical vector space to the entire conformal geometric algebra while respecting the multivector grading. Concretely, the registration can be viewed as an orthogonal transformation (\it i.e., scale, translation, rotation) belonging to SO(4,1) - group of special orthogonal transformations in conformal geometric algebra. We will show that such formalism is able to: (i) perform the registration without directly accessing the input multivectors. Instead, we use primitives or geometric objects provided by the conformal model - the multivectors, (ii) the geometric objects are obtained by solving a multilinear eigenvalue problem to find sets of eigenmultivectors. In this way, we can explicitly avoid solving the correspondences in the registration process. Most importantly, this offers rotation and translation equivariant properties between the input multivectors and the eigenmultivectors. Experimental evaluation is conducted in datasets commonly used in point cloud registration, to testify the usefulness of the approach with emphasis to ambiguities arising from high levels of noise. The code is available at https://github.com/Numerical-Geometric-Algebra/RegistrationGA . This work was submitted to the International Journal of Computer Vision and is currently under review.

The notion of omnipredictors (Gopalan, Kalai, Reingold, Sharan and Wieder ITCS 2021), suggested a new paradigm for loss minimization. Rather than learning a predictor based on a known loss function, omnipredictors can easily be post-processed to minimize any one of a rich family of loss functions compared with the loss of hypotheses in a class mathcal C. It has been shown that such omnipredictors exist and are implied (for all convex and Lipschitz loss functions) by the notion of multicalibration from the algorithmic fairness literature. In this paper, we introduce omnipredictors for constrained optimization and study their complexity and implications. The notion that we introduce allows the learner to be unaware of the loss function that will be later assigned as well as the constraints that will be later imposed, as long as the subpopulations that are used to define these constraints are known. We show how to obtain omnipredictors for constrained optimization problems, relying on appropriate variants of multicalibration. We also investigate the implications of this notion when the constraints used are so-called group fairness notions.

Let λ_{mathbb K}(m) denote the maximal absolute projection constant among m-dimensional Banach spaces over mathbb K=mathbb R or mathbb C. Its exact value is known only in a few cases, and determining it remains a challenging problem. In this note, we investigate several structured vector configurations that naturally arise in this context. We first recall the connection between maximal projection constants and tight frames, then consider biangular tight frames, and show that their relative and quasimaximal projection constants coincide. A particularly interesting example is provided by the midpoints of the edges of a regular simplex, which yield natural lower bounds for λ_{mathbb R}(m). Numerical evidence suggests that these bounds may be sharp in dimensions 6 and 8. We also discuss weighted spherical (2,2)-designs with a small number of vectors and their connection with maximal projection constants. Examples in dimensions 4 and 5 indicate that the sign patterns of their Gram matrices may play an important role. These observations lead us to formulate several conjectures concerning maximal absolute projection constants and the vector configurations associated with them.

Capturing high-dimensional social interactions and feasible futures is essential for predicting trajectories. To address this complex nature, several attempts have been devoted to reducing the dimensionality of the output variables via parametric curve fitting such as the B\'ezier curve and B-spline function. However, these functions, which originate in computer graphics fields, are not suitable to account for socially acceptable human dynamics. In this paper, we present EigenTrajectory (ET), a trajectory prediction approach that uses a novel trajectory descriptor to form a compact space, known here as ET space, in place of Euclidean space, for representing pedestrian movements. We first reduce the complexity of the trajectory descriptor via a low-rank approximation. We transform the pedestrians' history paths into our ET space represented by spatio-temporal principle components, and feed them into off-the-shelf trajectory forecasting models. The inputs and outputs of the models as well as social interactions are all gathered and aggregated in the corresponding ET space. Lastly, we propose a trajectory anchor-based refinement method to cover all possible futures in the proposed ET space. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our EigenTrajectory predictor can significantly improve both the prediction accuracy and reliability of existing trajectory forecasting models on public benchmarks, indicating that the proposed descriptor is suited to represent pedestrian behaviors. Code is publicly available at https://github.com/inhwanbae/EigenTrajectory .

This paper introduces a structural equation formulation that gives rise to a new family of quasi-periodic Gaussian processes, useful to process a broad class of natural and physiological signals. The proposed formulation simplifies generation and forecasting, and provides hyperparameter estimates, which we exploit in a convergent and consistent iterative estimation algorithm. A bootstrap approach for standard error estimation and confidence intervals is also provided. We demonstrate the computational and scaling benefits of the proposed approach on a broad class of problems, including water level tidal analysis, CO_{2} emission data, and sunspot numbers data. By leveraging the structural equations, our method reduces the cost of likelihood evaluations and predictions from O(k^2 p^2) to O(p^2), significantly improving scalability.

Nonconvex optimization is central in solving many machine learning problems, in which block-wise structure is commonly encountered. In this work, we propose cyclic block coordinate methods for nonconvex optimization problems with non-asymptotic gradient norm guarantees. Our convergence analysis is based on a gradient Lipschitz condition with respect to a Mahalanobis norm, inspired by a recent progress on cyclic block coordinate methods. In deterministic settings, our convergence guarantee matches the guarantee of (full-gradient) gradient descent, but with the gradient Lipschitz constant being defined w.r.t.~a Mahalanobis norm. In stochastic settings, we use recursive variance reduction to decrease the per-iteration cost and match the arithmetic operation complexity of current optimal stochastic full-gradient methods, with a unified analysis for both finite-sum and infinite-sum cases. We prove a faster linear convergence result when a Polyak-{\L}ojasiewicz (P{\L}) condition holds. To our knowledge, this work is the first to provide non-asymptotic convergence guarantees -- variance-reduced or not -- for a cyclic block coordinate method in general composite (smooth + nonsmooth) nonconvex settings. Our experimental results demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed cyclic scheme in training deep neural nets.

Graph neural networks have recently achieved great successes in predicting quantum mechanical properties of molecules. These models represent a molecule as a graph using only the distance between atoms (nodes). They do not, however, consider the spatial direction from one atom to another, despite directional information playing a central role in empirical potentials for molecules, e.g. in angular potentials. To alleviate this limitation we propose directional message passing, in which we embed the messages passed between atoms instead of the atoms themselves. Each message is associated with a direction in coordinate space. These directional message embeddings are rotationally equivariant since the associated directions rotate with the molecule. We propose a message passing scheme analogous to belief propagation, which uses the directional information by transforming messages based on the angle between them. Additionally, we use spherical Bessel functions and spherical harmonics to construct theoretically well-founded, orthogonal representations that achieve better performance than the currently prevalent Gaussian radial basis representations while using fewer than 1/4 of the parameters. We leverage these innovations to construct the directional message passing neural network (DimeNet). DimeNet outperforms previous GNNs on average by 76% on MD17 and by 31% on QM9. Our implementation is available online.

The prediction of ship trajectories is a growing field of study in artificial intelligence. Traditional methods rely on the use of LSTM, GRU networks, and even Transformer architectures for the prediction of spatio-temporal series. This study proposes a viable alternative for predicting these trajectories using only GNSS positions. It considers this spatio-temporal problem as a natural language processing problem. The latitude/longitude coordinates of AIS messages are transformed into cell identifiers using the H3 index. Thanks to the pseudo-octal representation, it becomes easier for language models to learn the spatial hierarchy of the H3 index. The method is compared with a classical Kalman filter, widely used in the maritime domain, and introduces the Fr\'echet distance as the main evaluation metric. We show that it is possible to predict ship trajectories quite precisely up to 8 hours with 30 minutes of context. We demonstrate that this alternative works well enough to predict trajectories worldwide.

Accurate uncertainty measurement is a key step to building robust and reliable machine learning systems. Conformal prediction is a distribution-free uncertainty quantification algorithm popular for its ease of implementation, statistical coverage guarantees, and versatility for underlying forecasters. However, existing conformal prediction algorithms for time series are limited to single-step prediction without considering the temporal dependency. In this paper, we propose a Copula Conformal Prediction algorithm for multivariate, multi-step Time Series forecasting, CopulaCPTS. We prove that CopulaCPTS has finite sample validity guarantee. On several synthetic and real-world multivariate time series datasets, we show that CopulaCPTS produces more calibrated and sharp confidence intervals for multi-step prediction tasks than existing techniques.

The optimization of large language models (LLMs) remains a critical challenge, particularly as model scaling exacerbates sensitivity to algorithmic imprecision and training instability. Recent advances in optimizers have improved convergence efficiency through momentum orthogonalization, but suffer from two key robustness limitations: dimensional fragility in orthogonalization precision and vulnerability to outlier-induced noise. To address these robustness challenges, we introduce ROOT, a Robust Orthogonalized Optimizer that enhances training stability through dual robustness mechanisms. First, we develop a dimension-robust orthogonalization scheme using adaptive Newton iterations with fine-grained coefficients tailored to specific matrix sizes, ensuring consistent precision across diverse architectural configurations. Second, we introduce an optimization-robust framework via proximal optimization that suppresses outlier noise while preserving meaningful gradient directions. Extensive experiments demonstrate that ROOT achieves significantly improved robustness, with faster convergence and superior final performance compared to both Muon and Adam-based optimizers, particularly in noisy and non-convex scenarios. Our work establishes a new paradigm for developing robust and precise optimizers capable of handling the complexities of modern large-scale model training. The code will be available at https://github.com/huawei-noah/noah-research/tree/master/ROOT.

Mobility simulation supports logistics, safety, and communications planning in industrial environments such as ports, mines, and airports. Existing trajectory models, however, rely on absolute coordinates, road-network tokens, or semantic zones: representations that are site-specific and not well suited to unstructured industrial terrain. We introduce the Industrial Kinematic Trajectory Model (IKTM), a coordinate-free trajectory generator that represents industrial vehicle motion through kinematic sequences (speed and heading change) with no absolute spatial reference. IKTM uses an autoregressive causal transformer with probabilistic mixture heads and extends our prior coordinate-free Markovian model with deep sequence modelling and an explicit duration-conditioning signal. Trained on one site and evaluated zero-shot on three unseen sites, it matches the small-turn shape of the empirical turn-rate distributions of held-out telematics; across all four sites, the per-site mean Jensen-Shannon divergence over 100 sampling seeds spans approximately 0.035-0.050 bits under an oracle-length duration-target protocol and approximately 0.032-0.042 bits under a fully zero-shot prior-length protocol, with similar ranges whether out-of-distribution (OOD) duration targets are drawn from each held-out site's empirical length distribution or from the Site A prior. Both protocols stay above the metric's sampling-noise floor (<=0.0049 bits). Paired by site, the oracle-length values are 5.3-6.0x lower than those of a re-implementation of our prior Markovian model under the same 1 Hz protocol. Termination is duration-conditioned rather than spatial: rollouts stop on 100% of trials with a length-tracking error of +0.0 +/- 0.0 s against the sampled target (100 of 100 exactly on target; N=100, T=0.2, untouched in-distribution test split).

In location estimation, we are given n samples from a known distribution f shifted by an unknown translation lambda, and want to estimate lambda as precisely as possible. Asymptotically, the maximum likelihood estimate achieves the Cram\'er-Rao bound of error mathcal N(0, 1{nmathcal I}), where mathcal I is the Fisher information of f. However, the n required for convergence depends on f, and may be arbitrarily large. We build on the theory using smoothed estimators to bound the error for finite n in terms of mathcal I_r, the Fisher information of the r-smoothed distribution. As n to infty, r to 0 at an explicit rate and this converges to the Cram\'er-Rao bound. We (1) improve the prior work for 1-dimensional f to converge for constant failure probability in addition to high probability, and (2) extend the theory to high-dimensional distributions. In the process, we prove a new bound on the norm of a high-dimensional random variable whose 1-dimensional projections are subgamma, which may be of independent interest.

We address the computational challenges of solving parametric PDEs with non parametrized geometric variations and non-reducible problems, such as those involving shocks and discontinuities of variable positions. Traditional dimensionality reduction methods like POD struggle with these scenarios due to slowly decaying Kolmogorov widths. To overcome this, we propose a novel non-linear dimensionality reduction technique to reduce the required modes for representation. The non-linear reduction is obtained through a POD after applying a transformation on the fields, which we call optimal mappings, and is a solution to an optimization problem in infinite dimension. The proposed learning framework combines morphing techniques, non-linear dimensionality reduction, and Gaussian Process Regression (GPR). The problem is reformulated on a reference geometry before applying the dimensionality reduction. Our method learns both the optimal mapping, and the solution fields, using a series of GPR models, enabling efficient and accurate modeling of complex parametric PDEs with geometrical variability. The results obtained concur with current state-of-the-art models. We mainly compare our method with the winning solution of the ML4CFD NeurIPS 2024 competition.

In lung radiotherapy, infrared cameras can track reflective objects on the chest to estimate tumor motion due to breathing, but treatment system latencies hinder radiation beam precision. Real-time recurrent learning (RTRL) is a potential solution that can learn patterns within non-stationary respiratory data but has high complexity. This study assesses the capabilities of resource-efficient online RNN algorithms, namely unbiased online recurrent optimization (UORO), sparse-1 step approximation (SnAp-1), and decoupled neural interfaces (DNI) to forecast respiratory motion during radiotherapy treatment accurately. We use time series containing the 3D positions of external markers on the chest of healthy subjects. We propose efficient implementations for SnAp-1 and DNI that compress the influence and immediate Jacobian matrices and accurately update the linear coefficients used in credit assignment estimation, respectively. Data was originally sampled at 10Hz; we resampled it at 3.33Hz and 30Hz to analyze the effect of the sampling rate on performance. We use UORO, SnAp-1, and DNI to forecast each marker's 3D position with horizons h<=2.1s (the time interval in advance for which the prediction is made) and compare them with RTRL, least mean squares, kernel support vector regression, and linear regression. RNNs trained online achieved similar or better accuracy than most previous works using larger training databases and deep learning, even though we used only the first minute of each sequence to predict motion within that exact sequence. SnAp-1 had the lowest normalized root mean square errors (nRMSEs) averaged over the horizon values considered, equal to 0.335 and 0.157, at 3.33Hz and 10.0Hz, respectively. Similarly, UORO had the lowest nRMSE at 30Hz, equal to 0.086. DNI's inference time (6.8ms per time step at 30Hz, Intel Core i7-13700 CPU) was the lowest among the RNN methods.

Driven by the rapid growth of model parameters, parameter-efficient fine-tuning (PEFT) has become essential for adapting large models to diverse downstream tasks under constrained computational resources. Within this paradigm, orthogonal fine-tuning and its variants preserve semantic representations of pre-trained models, but struggle to achieve both expressiveness and efficiency in terms of parameter counts, memory, and computation. To overcome this limitation, we propose efficient Orthogonal Fine-Tuning with Principal Subspace adaptation (PSOFT), which confines orthogonal transformations to the principal subspace of pre-trained weights. Specifically, PSOFT constructs this subspace via matrix decomposition to enable compatible transformations with higher effective rank, establishes a theoretical condition that strictly maintains the geometry of this subspace for essential semantic preservation, and introduces efficient tunable vectors that gradually relax orthogonality during training to enhance adaptability. Extensive experiments on 35 NLP and CV tasks across four representative models demonstrate that PSOFT offers a practical and scalable solution to simultaneously achieve semantic preservation, expressiveness, and multi-dimensional efficiency in PEFT. The code is publicly available at https://github.com/fei407/PSOFT.

We study the problem of learning generative models for discrete sequences in a continuous embedding space. Whereas prior approaches typically operate in Euclidean space or on the probability simplex, we instead work on the sphere mathbb S^{d-1}. There the von Mises-Fisher (vMF) distribution induces a natural noise process and admits a closed-form conditional score. The conditional velocity is in general intractable. Exploiting the radial symmetry of the vMF density we reduce the continuity equation on mathbb S^{d-1} to a scalar ODE in the cosine similarity, whose unique bounded solution determines the velocity. The marginal velocity and marginal score on (mathbb S^{d-1})^L both decompose into posterior-weighted tangent sums that differ only by per-token scalar weights. This gives access to both ODE and predictor-corrector (PC) sampling. The posterior is the only learned object, trained by a cross-entropy loss. Experiments compare the vMF path against geodesic and Euclidean alternatives. The combination of vMF and PC sampling significantly improves results on Sudoku and language modeling.

Bayesian optimization (BO) has established itself as a leading strategy for efficiently optimizing expensive-to-evaluate functions. Existing BO methods mostly rely on Gaussian process (GP) surrogate models and are not applicable to (doubly-stochastic) Gaussian Cox processes, where the observation process is modulated by a latent intensity function modeled as a GP. In this paper, we propose a novel maximum a posteriori inference of Gaussian Cox processes. It leverages the Laplace approximation and change of kernel technique to transform the problem into a new reproducing kernel Hilbert space, where it becomes more tractable computationally. It enables us to obtain both a functional posterior of the latent intensity function and the covariance of the posterior, thus extending existing works that often focus on specific link functions or estimating the posterior mean. Using the result, we propose a BO framework based on the Gaussian Cox process model and further develop a Nystr\"om approximation for efficient computation. Extensive evaluations on various synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate significant improvement over state-of-the-art inference solutions for Gaussian Cox processes, as well as effective BO with a wide range of acquisition functions designed through the underlying Gaussian Cox process model.

The quality of many modern machine learning models improves as model complexity increases, an effect that has been quantified, for predictive performance, with the non-monotonic double descent learning curve. Here, we address the overarching question: is there an analogous theory of double descent for models which estimate uncertainty? We provide a partially affirmative and partially negative answer in the setting of Gaussian processes (GP). Under standard assumptions, we prove that higher model quality for optimally-tuned GPs (including uncertainty prediction) under marginal likelihood is realized for larger input dimensions, and therefore exhibits a monotone error curve. After showing that marginal likelihood does not naturally exhibit double descent in the input dimension, we highlight related forms of posterior predictive loss that do exhibit non-monotonicity. Finally, we verify empirically that our results hold for real data, beyond our considered assumptions, and we explore consequences involving synthetic covariates.

We present a probabilistic data-driven weather model capable of providing an ensemble of high spatial resolution realizations of 87 variables at arbitrary forecast length and ensemble size. The model uses a stretched grid, dedicating 2.5 km resolution to a region of interest, and 31 km resolution elsewhere. Based on a stochastic encoder-decoder architecture, the model is trained using a loss function based on the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) evaluated point-wise in real and spectral space. The spectral loss components is shown to be necessary to create fields that are spatially coherent. The model is compared to high-resolution operational numerical weather prediction forecasts from the MetCoOp Ensemble Prediction System (MEPS), showing competitive forecasts when evaluated against observations from surface weather stations. The model produced fields that are more spatially coherent than mean squared error based models and CRPS based models without the spectral component in the loss.

Vision-Language Models (VLMs) have enabled autonomous GUI agents that translate natural language instructions into executable screen coordinates. However, grounding performance degrades in high-resolution interfaces, where dense layouts and small interactive elements expose a resolution gap between modern displays and model input constraints. Existing zoom-in strategies rely on fixed anchors, heuristic grids, or reinforcement learning, lacking a principled mechanism to adaptively determine where refinement is needed and how much spatial uncertainty should be explored. We propose AutoFocus, a training-free, uncertainty-aware active visual search framework for GUI grounding. Our key insight is that token-level perplexity in coordinate generation naturally reflects spatial uncertainty. Rather than committing to a single prediction, AutoFocus samples multiple coordinate hypotheses and converts their axial perplexities into an anisotropic gaussian spatial probability field, explicitly modeling directional uncertainty. Based on this field, we generate global and local region proposals and introduce Shape-Aware Zooming to balance tight localization with contextual preservation. A visual prompt-based aggregation step then selects the most consistent prediction via structured comparison. Extensive experiments on ScreenSpot-Pro and ScreenSpot-V2 demonstrate consistent improvements across both general-purpose and GUI-specialized VLMs.

Task arithmetic provides an efficient, training-free way to edit pre-trained models, yet lacks a fundamental theoretical explanation for its success. The existing concept of ``weight disentanglement" describes the ideal outcome of non-interfering task composition but does not reveal its underlying cause. Crucially, what intrinsic properties of the pre-trained model (θ_0) or the task vectors (τ_t) enable this disentanglement remains underexplored. In this paper, we introduce Task-Feature Specialization (TFS), a model's ability to allocate distinct internal features to different tasks, as the fundamental principle. We first prove that TFS is a sufficient condition for weight disentanglement. More importantly, we find that TFS also gives rise to an observable geometric consequence: weight vector orthogonality. This positions TFS as the common cause for both the desired functional outcome (disentanglement) and a measurable geometric property (orthogonality). This relationship provides the key insight for our method: since the abstract TFS property is intractable to enforce directly, we can instead promote weight disentanglement by shaping its concrete geometric consequence, orthogonality. Therefore, we propose OrthoReg, a simple and effective regularization method that actively enforces an internal orthogonal structure on weight updates (ΔW) that constitute τ_t during fine-tuning. And we theoretically prove that OrthoReg promotes disentanglement. Extensive experiments demonstrate that OrthoReg consistently and significantly enhances the performance of various task arithmetic methods. Code is available at https://github.com/RL-MIND/OrthoReg{https://github.com/RL-MIND/OrthoReg}.

We propose SketchINR, to advance the representation of vector sketches with implicit neural models. A variable length vector sketch is compressed into a latent space of fixed dimension that implicitly encodes the underlying shape as a function of time and strokes. The learned function predicts the xy point coordinates in a sketch at each time and stroke. Despite its simplicity, SketchINR outperforms existing representations at multiple tasks: (i) Encoding an entire sketch dataset into a fixed size latent vector, SketchINR gives 60times and 10times data compression over raster and vector sketches, respectively. (ii) SketchINR's auto-decoder provides a much higher-fidelity representation than other learned vector sketch representations, and is uniquely able to scale to complex vector sketches such as FS-COCO. (iii) SketchINR supports parallelisation that can decode/render sim100times faster than other learned vector representations such as SketchRNN. (iv) SketchINR, for the first time, emulates the human ability to reproduce a sketch with varying abstraction in terms of number and complexity of strokes. As a first look at implicit sketches, SketchINR's compact high-fidelity representation will support future work in modelling long and complex sketches.

This paper studies active regression for single-index models under general ell_p-loss with an unknown 1-Lipschitz link function f, formulated as min_{f,x} |f(Ax)-b|_p^p with full access to A but coordinate-query access to b. Prior work established upper bounds for known link functions for all pgeq 1 and for unknown link functions only in the p=2 case, together with lower bounds for pleq 2. This work addresses the more challenging setting of unknown link functions and general p geq 1. A non-adaptive sampling algorithm is presented that achieves a (1+ε)-approximation using O(d^{p/2vee 1}/ε^{pvee 2}polylog(n/ε)) queries. Nearly tight lower bounds are also established for p>2. These results close much of the remaining gap in active ell_p-regression for single-index models.

Recent progress in video generation has led to substantial improvements in visual fidelity, yet ensuring physically consistent motion remains a fundamental challenge. Intuitively, this limitation can be attributed to the fact that real-world object motion unfolds in three-dimensional space, while video observations provide only partial, view-dependent projections of such dynamics. To address these issues, we propose OrthoPhys, a two-stage framework that leverages orthogonal-view geometry guidance to enforce physical plausibility. Instead of directly generating unstructured 2D videos, our first stage generates synchronized, four-view orthogonal videos of the foreground dynamics. By incorporating a geometry-enhanced attention mechanism across these orthogonal views, this stage effectively enforces 3D spatial coherence and implicitly grounds the motion in physical attributes. In the second stage, these physically consistent orthogonal foregrounds serve as rigid guidance to synthesize the final complete video, seamlessly learning the interaction between foreground dynamics and the background context. To support this orthogonal-view training paradigm, we construct PhysMV, a dataset containing 40K scenes, each consisting of four orthogonal viewpoints, resulting in a total of 160K video sequences. Extensive experiments demonstrate that OrthoPhys significantly improves physical realism and spatial-temporal coherence over existing video generation methods. Project page: https://anonymous.4open.science/w/Phys4D/.

This paper considers the design of nonlinear data-enabled predictive control (DeePC) using kernel functions. Compared with existing methods that use kernels to parameterize multi-step predictors for nonlinear DeePC, we adopt a novel, operator-based approach. More specifically, we employ a universal product kernel parameterization of nonlinear systems operators as a prediction mechanism for nonlinear DeePC. We show that by using a product reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) to learn the system trajectories, big data sets can be handled effectively to construct the corresponding product Gram matrix. Moreover, we show that the structure of the adopted product RKHS representation allows for a computationally efficient DeePC formulation. Compared to existing methods, our approach achieves substantially faster computation times for the same data size. This allows for the use of much larger data sets and enhanced control performance.

Quantitative tools are increasingly appealing for decision support in healthcare, driven by the growing capabilities of advanced AI systems. However, understanding the predictive uncertainties surrounding a tool's output is crucial for decision-makers to ensure reliable and transparent decisions. In this paper, we present a case study on pulmonary nodule detection for lung cancer screening, enhancing an advanced detection model with an uncertainty quantification technique called conformal risk control (CRC). We demonstrate that prediction sets with conformal guarantees are attractive measures of predictive uncertainty in the safety-critical healthcare domain, allowing end-users to achieve arbitrary validity by trading off false positives and providing formal statistical guarantees on model performance. Among ground-truth nodules annotated by at least three radiologists, our model achieves a sensitivity that is competitive with that generally achieved by individual radiologists, with a slight increase in false positives. Furthermore, we illustrate the risks of using off-the-shelve prediction models when faced with ontological uncertainty, such as when radiologists disagree on what constitutes the ground truth on pulmonary nodules.

Predicting how a patient's vital signs respond to an intervention is a central question in intensive care. World models can do so by learning dynamics as a function of prior actions. However, such models tend to be brittle outside of training data. Clinicians choose drug dosages based on the patient's state, so the association a model learns between dose and outcome runs opposite to the drug's effect, generalizing poorly to out-of-distribution (OOD) dosing practices. Yet, pharmacological information provides the directional effects of different drugs, which are invariant to OOD shifts. To resolve the OOD sensitivity of current ICU world models, we introduce PHYSIO WORLD, which isolates an intervention's effect by evaluating a forward pass twice: once under recorded doses, and once with those doses set to zero. The difference is projected onto pharmacologically admissible effect directions stated by 70 rules over 28 drugs, leaving the magnitude to be learned from data. Across five distribution-shift parameters over cohorts from three intensive-care databases, and against forecasters, counterfactual models, and invariance objectives, PHYSIO WORLD attains the lowest OOD RMSE in every setting, improving on the strongest external baseline by 8-12%, while matching the in-distribution error of its backbone. Reversing the pharmacological directions degrades accuracy below the backbone, and data-mined directions recover almost no gain, indicating the improvement derives from the content of the pharmacological knowledge. The construction may extend to other settings where the sign of an effect is known in advance and its magnitude is confounded by treatment assignment.

Human motion forecasters are increasingly accurate and fast, but reliable deployment requires uncertainty estimates that are structured, calibrated, and efficient. Bayesian and ensemble-based uncertainty estimates often require repeated stochastic inference [15, 26], while conformal calibration alone does not provide an epistemic signal or preserve trajectory covariance structure [14, 50]. We introduce SPARC (Single-Pass Adaptive Risk Calibration), a Bayesian-conformal uncertainty layer for motion forecasting. A deterministic MLP backbone predicts the future mean, and a conjugate Bayesian last layer converts time-domain feature leverage into an analytic horizon-wise epistemic scale κ_t(x). This scale inflates a graph-temporal Gaussian covariance without changing its correlation structure, and split conformal calibration produces 95% marginal prediction tubes with finite-sample validity under exchangeability. The key interface is the structured factorization κ_t(x)Σ_{str,t}(x), which injects feature-space epistemic uncertainty into trajectory densities without Monte Carlo sampling. Across nine dataset-protocol blocks and deterministic, multimodal, and calibration baselines, SPARC ranks first on NLL and on the combined MPJPE+NLL criterion while retaining competitive point accuracy and efficient calibrated tubes. Ranking windows by κ separates high-error cases, making the scale usable as a lightweight risk monitor.

We study the accuracy of Gauss-Newton curvature in ridge-regularized nonlinear least squares. Under local regularity and persistence of level-set curvature magnitude along an exact-fit section, we prove uniform coexistence of two curvature regimes. Global minimizers exist, and every global minimizer has relative Hessian error below (1+sqrt2)/8, while the same low-cost set contains a point with an indefinite Hessian and relative error at least 15/8. One positive ridge cap works for all independent center and label perturbations in fixed neighborhoods and every positive ridge weight up to the cap. These neighborhoods do not shrink as the ridge weight tends to zero. A pointwise certificate based on the current prediction level set controls the normal, mixed, and tangent parts of the Hessian correction. We prove a sharp relative-error bound over the stated pointwise class when the prediction map and ridge vary. Analytic examples describe the roles of output alignment, curvature orientation, and persistence. A separate structural result gives full Jacobian row rank throughout low-cost sets and exact interpolation near a rank-deficient reference.

Respiratory motion complicates accurate irradiation of thoraco-abdominal tumors during radiotherapy, as treatment-system latency entails target-location uncertainties. This work addresses frame forecasting in chest and liver cine MRI to compensate for such delays. We investigate RNNs trained with online learning algorithms, enabling adaptation to changing respiratory patterns via on-the-fly parameter updates, and transformers, increasingly common in time-series forecasting for their ability to capture long-term dependencies. Experiments used 12 sagittal thoracic and upper-abdominal cine-MRI sequences from ETH Zürich and OvGU; the OvGU data exhibited higher motion variability, noise, and lower contrast. PCA decomposes the Lucas-Kanade optical-flow field into static deformation modes and low-dimensional, time-dependent weights. We compare various methods for forecasting these weights: linear filters, population and sequence-specific transformer encoders, and RNNs trained with real-time recurrent learning (RTRL), unbiased online recurrent optimization, decoupled neural interfaces, and sparse one-step approximation (SnAp-1). Predicted displacements were used to warp the reference frame and generate future images. Prediction accuracy decreased with the horizon h. Linear regression performed best at short horizons (1.3mm geometrical error at h=0.32s, ETH Zürich dataset), while RTRL and SnAp-1 outperformed the other algorithms at medium-to-long horizons, with geometrical errors below 1.4mm and 2.8mm on the sequences from ETH Zürich and OvGU, respectively. The sequence-specific transformer was competitive for low-to-medium horizons, but transformers remained overall limited by data scarcity and domain shift between datasets. Predicted frames visually resembled the ground truth, with notable errors occurring near the diaphragm at end-inspiration and regions affected by out-of-plane motion.

Matrix-based optimizers have attracted growing interest for improving LLM training efficiency, with significant progress centered on orthogonalization/whitening based methods. While yielding substantial performance gains, a fundamental question arises: can we develop new paradigms beyond orthogonalization, pushing the efficiency frontier further? We present Adaptively Rotated Optimization (ARO, a new matrix optimization framework that treats gradient rotation as a first class design principle. ARO accelerates LLM training by performing normed steepest descent in a rotated coordinate system, where the rotation is determined by a novel norm-informed policy. This perspective yields update rules that go beyond existing orthogonalization and whitening optimizers, improving sample efficiency in practice. To make comparisons reliable, we propose a rigorously controlled benchmarking protocol that reduces confounding and bias. Under this protocol, ARO consistently outperforms AdamW (by 1.3 sim1.35times) and orthogonalization methods (by 1.1sim1.15times) in LLM pretraining at up to 8B activated parameters, and up to 8times overtrain budget, without evidence of diminishing returns. Finally, we discuss how ARO can be reformulated as a symmetry-aware optimizer grounded in rotational symmetries of residual streams, motivating advanced designs that enable computationally efficient exploitation of cross-layer/cross module couplings.

Conformal predictors are set predictors that are automatically valid in the sense of having coverage probability equal to or exceeding a given confidence level. Inductive conformal predictors are a computationally efficient version of conformal predictors satisfying the same property of validity. However, inductive conformal predictors have been only known to control unconditional coverage probability. This paper explores various versions of conditional validity and various ways to achieve them using inductive conformal predictors and their modifications.

Reliable estimation of predictive uncertainty is crucial for machine learning applications, particularly in high-stakes scenarios where hedging against risks is essential. Despite its significance, there is no universal agreement on how to best quantify predictive uncertainty. In this work, we revisit core concepts to propose a framework for information-theoretic measures of predictive uncertainty. Our proposed framework categorizes predictive uncertainty measures according to two factors: (I) The predicting model (II) The approximation of the true predictive distribution. Examining all possible combinations of these two factors, we derive a set of predictive uncertainty measures that includes both known and newly introduced ones. We extensively evaluate these measures across a broad set of tasks, identifying conditions under which certain measures excel. Our findings show the importance of aligning the choice of uncertainty measure with the predicting model on in-distribution (ID) data, the limitations of epistemic uncertainty measures for out-of-distribution (OOD) data, and that the disentanglement between measures varies substantially between ID and OOD data. Together, these insights provide a more comprehensive understanding of predictive uncertainty measures, revealing their implicit assumptions and relationships.

We introduce a novel machine learning model for credit risk by combining tree-boosting with a latent spatio-temporal Gaussian process model accounting for frailty correlation. This allows for modeling non-linearities and interactions among predictor variables in a flexible data-driven manner and for accounting for spatio-temporal variation that is not explained by observable predictor variables. We also show how estimation and prediction can be done in a computationally efficient manner. In an application to a large U.S. mortgage credit risk data set, we find that both predictive default probabilities for individual loans and predictive loan portfolio loss distributions obtained with our novel approach are more accurate compared to conventional independent linear hazard models and also linear spatio-temporal models. Using interpretability tools for machine learning models, we find that the likely reasons for this outperformance are strong interaction and non-linear effects in the predictor variables and the presence of large spatio-temporal frailty effects.

Reduced-order modeling (ROM) of time-dependent and parameterized differential equations aims to accelerate the simulation of complex high-dimensional systems by learning a compact latent manifold representation that captures the characteristics of the solution fields and their time-dependent dynamics. Although high-fidelity numerical solvers generate the training datasets, they have thus far been excluded from the training process, causing the learned latent dynamics to drift away from the discretized governing physics. This mismatch often limits generalization and forecasting capabilities. In this work, we propose Physics-informed ROM (Φ-ROM) by incorporating differentiable PDE solvers into the training procedure. Specifically, the latent space dynamics and its dependence on PDE parameters are shaped directly by the governing physics encoded in the solver, ensuring a strong correspondence between the full and reduced systems. Our model outperforms state-of-the-art data-driven ROMs and other physics-informed strategies by accurately generalizing to new dynamics arising from unseen parameters, enabling long-term forecasting beyond the training horizon, maintaining continuity in both time and space, and reducing the data cost. Furthermore, Φ-ROM learns to recover and forecast the solution fields even when trained or evaluated with sparse and irregular observations of the fields, providing a flexible framework for field reconstruction and data assimilation. We demonstrate the framework's robustness across various PDE solvers and highlight its broad applicability by providing an open-source JAX implementation that is readily extensible to other PDE systems and differentiable solvers, available at https://phi-rom.github.io.

We tackle the problem of estimating a Manhattan frame, i.e. three orthogonal vanishing points, and the unknown focal length of the camera, leveraging a prior vertical direction. The direction can come from an Inertial Measurement Unit that is a standard component of recent consumer devices, e.g., smartphones. We provide an exhaustive analysis of minimal line configurations and derive two new 2-line solvers, one of which does not suffer from singularities affecting existing solvers. Additionally, we design a new non-minimal method, running on an arbitrary number of lines, to boost the performance in local optimization. Combining all solvers in a hybrid robust estimator, our method achieves increased accuracy even with a rough prior. Experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate the superior accuracy of our method compared to the state of the art, while having comparable runtimes. We further demonstrate the applicability of our solvers for relative rotation estimation. The code is available at https://github.com/cvg/VP-Estimation-with-Prior-Gravity.

Continual learning aims to avoid catastrophic forgetting and effectively leverage learned experiences to master new knowledge. Existing gradient projection approaches impose hard constraints on the optimization space for new tasks to minimize interference, which simultaneously hinders forward knowledge transfer. To address this issue, recent methods reuse frozen parameters with a growing network, resulting in high computational costs. Thus, it remains a challenge whether we can improve forward knowledge transfer for gradient projection approaches using a fixed network architecture. In this work, we propose the Restricted Orthogonal Gradient prOjection (ROGO) framework. The basic idea is to adopt a restricted orthogonal constraint allowing parameters optimized in the direction oblique to the whole frozen space to facilitate forward knowledge transfer while consolidating previous knowledge. Our framework requires neither data buffers nor extra parameters. Extensive experiments have demonstrated the superiority of our framework over several strong baselines. We also provide theoretical guarantees for our relaxing strategy.

Novel view synthesis and 3D modeling using implicit neural field representation are shown to be very effective for calibrated multi-view cameras. Such representations are known to benefit from additional geometric and semantic supervision. Most existing methods that exploit additional supervision require dense pixel-wise labels or localized scene priors. These methods cannot benefit from high-level vague scene priors provided in terms of scenes' descriptions. In this work, we aim to leverage the geometric prior of Manhattan scenes to improve the implicit neural radiance field representations. More precisely, we assume that only the knowledge of the indoor scene (under investigation) being Manhattan is known -- with no additional information whatsoever -- with an unknown Manhattan coordinate frame. Such high-level prior is used to self-supervise the surface normals derived explicitly in the implicit neural fields. Our modeling allows us to cluster the derived normals and exploit their orthogonality constraints for self-supervision. Our exhaustive experiments on datasets of diverse indoor scenes demonstrate the significant benefit of the proposed method over the established baselines. The source code will be available at https://github.com/nikola3794/normal-clustering-nerf.