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Sep 9

Language Models Without a Trainable Input Embedding Table: Learning from Fixed Minimal Binary Token Codes

Trainable input embedding tables are a standard component of modern language models. We ask whether they are actually necessary at the input interface. For a vocabulary of size V, exact token identity requires only K=lceil log_2 Vrceil bits. We replace the usual trainable Vtimes d_{model} input embedding matrix with fixed minimal binary token codes and a zero-parameter lift to model width. In our main setting, V=65{,}536, so K=16, and tokens are represented by fixed 16-dimensional binary codes tiled to d_{model}=1024. We also evaluate a fully table-free variant in which codes are generated from token IDs on the fly and randomly recoded by an invertible affine transform over F_2^K. Across matched 32-layer decoder-only models trained on approximately 17B tokens and evaluated over three independent training seeds, fixed minimal codes achieve comparable held-out validation perplexity to a standard learned-input baseline while removing 67.1M trainable input parameters. The fixed-code runs have a lower mean validation perplexity in our experiments, 2.36 versus 2.44, but the observed gap is within the measured seed-to-seed variation of 4.8\%; we therefore interpret the result as evidence that the trainable input table is not necessary, rather than as a statistically resolved superiority claim. The table-free affine-recoded variant remains close at 2.39 despite a slightly shorter training run. These results show that, in this regime, a trainable input embedding table is not necessary for useful language modeling. The output projection remains standard and trainable.

  • 1 authors
·
May 9

ThinkEdit: Interpretable Weight Editing to Mitigate Overly Short Thinking in Reasoning Models

Recent studies have shown that Large Language Models (LLMs) augmented with chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning demonstrate impressive problem-solving abilities. However, in this work, we identify a recurring issue where these models occasionally generate overly short reasoning, leading to degraded performance on even simple mathematical problems. Specifically, we investigate how reasoning length is embedded in the hidden representations of reasoning models and its impact on accuracy. Our analysis reveals that reasoning length is governed by a linear direction in the representation space, allowing us to induce overly short reasoning by steering the model along this direction. Building on this insight, we introduce ThinkEdit, a simple yet effective weight-editing approach to mitigate the issue of overly short reasoning. We first identify a small subset of attention heads (approximately 2%) that predominantly drive short reasoning behavior. We then edit the output projection weights of these heads to suppress the short reasoning direction. With changes to only 0.1% of the model's parameters, ThinkEdit effectively reduces overly short reasoning and yields notable accuracy gains for short reasoning outputs (+5.44%), along with an overall improvement across multiple math benchmarks (+2.43%). Our findings provide new mechanistic insights into how reasoning length is controlled within LLMs and highlight the potential of fine-grained model interventions to improve reasoning quality. Our code is available at https://github.com/Trustworthy-ML-Lab/ThinkEdit

  • 3 authors
·
Mar 27, 2025

Clone What You Can't Steal: Black-Box LLM Replication via Logit Leakage and Distillation

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in mission-critical systems, facilitating tasks such as satellite operations, command-and-control, military decision support, and cyber defense. Many of these systems are accessed through application programming interfaces (APIs). When such APIs lack robust access controls, they can expose full or top-k logits, creating a significant and often overlooked attack surface. Prior art has mainly focused on reconstructing the output projection layer or distilling surface-level behaviors. However, regenerating a black-box model under tight query constraints remains underexplored. We address that gap by introducing a constrained replication pipeline that transforms partial logit leakage into a functional deployable substitute model clone. Our two-stage approach (i) reconstructs the output projection matrix by collecting top-k logits from under 10k black-box queries via singular value decomposition (SVD) over the logits, then (ii) distills the remaining architecture into compact student models with varying transformer depths, trained on an open source dataset. A 6-layer student recreates 97.6% of the 6-layer teacher model's hidden-state geometry, with only a 7.31% perplexity increase, and a 7.58 Negative Log-Likelihood (NLL). A 4-layer variant achieves 17.1% faster inference and 18.1% parameter reduction with comparable performance. The entire attack completes in under 24 graphics processing unit (GPU) hours and avoids triggering API rate-limit defenses. These results demonstrate how quickly a cost-limited adversary can clone an LLM, underscoring the urgent need for hardened inference APIs and secure on-premise defense deployments.

  • 4 authors
·
Aug 31, 2025

A Two-Parameter Weibull Framework for Diagnosing Transformer Weight Distributions

We apply the Weibull distribution -- a two-parameter family from extreme-value theory -- as a diagnostic framework for element-wise weight magnitude distributions in transformers. At initialization, i.i.d. Gaussian weights give |w| ~ HalfNormal, yielding k ~ 1.20 via middle-80% probability-plot fit (the protocol used throughout this work). This anchor makes k a principled, architecture-independent measuring stick for training dynamics; fitting each weight matrix independently at every layer at every checkpoint enables per-component, per-layer, and per-step diagnostics that aggregate statistics cannot resolve. Applying this framework to 12 model entries spanning 7 architectural families (Pythia, OLMo-1/2, LLaMA-3, Mistral, Qwen2.5/3) reveals three findings. First, FFN modules and the attention output projection W_o -- the Transmission Class -- fall in a narrow k band: median terminal k in [1.186, 1.204] across 12 entries (cross-family CV = 0.51%), shared across SwiGLU/GeLU activations, Pre-LN/QK-Norm placements, and 70M-14B sizes. Second, the attention input projections W_q, W_k -- the Selection Class -- depart from the Weibull family, with severity shaped by storage: separately-stored Q/K (OLMo-1, OLMo-2) yields k in [0.76, 0.99] (deep); GQA models yield k in [1.10, 1.16] (mild); Pythia's merged W_qkv occupies a transitional zone tracking training budget T/tau monotonically. Third, lambda grows substantially during training and scales with sqrt(eta/lambda_wd) within the Pythia family (Pearson r = 0.94, three Transmission kinds), directionally consistent with Fan et al. (2025). The two parameters carry independent information: k labels the functional class, lambda labels training progress. We release npm-weibull-py v0.4 (Python library) and DATABASE_v9_1 at https://github.com/tiexinding/NPM-Weibull-public .

  • 1 authors
·
May 16

MambaQuant: Quantizing the Mamba Family with Variance Aligned Rotation Methods

Mamba is an efficient sequence model that rivals Transformers and demonstrates significant potential as a foundational architecture for various tasks. Quantization is commonly used in neural networks to reduce model size and computational latency. However, applying quantization to Mamba remains underexplored, and existing quantization methods, which have been effective for CNN and Transformer models, appear inadequate for Mamba models (e.g., Quarot suffers a 21% accuracy drop on Vim-T^dagger even under W8A8). We have pioneered the exploration of this issue and identified several key challenges. First, significant outliers are present in gate projections, output projections, and matrix multiplications. Second, Mamba's unique parallel scan further amplifies these outliers, leading to uneven and heavy-tailed data distributions. Third, even with the application of the Hadamard transform, the variance across channels in weights and activations still remains inconsistent. To these ends, we propose MambaQuant, a post-training quantization (PTQ) framework consisting of: 1) Karhunen-Loeve Transformation (KLT) enhanced rotation, rendering the rotation matrix adaptable to diverse channel distributions. 2) Smooth-Fused rotation, which equalizes channel variances and can merge additional parameters into model weights. Experiments show that MambaQuant can quantize both weights and activations into 8-bit with less than 1% accuracy loss for Mamba-based vision and language tasks. To the best of our knowledge, MambaQuant is the first comprehensive PTQ design for the Mamba family, paving the way for further advancements in its application.

  • 10 authors
·
Jan 23, 2025

Moirai-MoE: Empowering Time Series Foundation Models with Sparse Mixture of Experts

Time series foundation models have demonstrated impressive performance as zero-shot forecasters. However, achieving effectively unified training on time series remains an open challenge. Existing approaches introduce some level of model specialization to account for the highly heterogeneous nature of time series data. For instance, Moirai pursues unified training by employing multiple input/output projection layers, each tailored to handle time series at a specific frequency. Similarly, TimesFM maintains a frequency embedding dictionary for this purpose. We identify two major drawbacks to this human-imposed frequency-level model specialization: (1) Frequency is not a reliable indicator of the underlying patterns in time series. For example, time series with different frequencies can display similar patterns, while those with the same frequency may exhibit varied patterns. (2) Non-stationarity is an inherent property of real-world time series, leading to varied distributions even within a short context window of a single time series. Frequency-level specialization is too coarse-grained to capture this level of diversity. To address these limitations, this paper introduces Moirai-MoE, using a single input/output projection layer while delegating the modeling of diverse time series patterns to the sparse mixture of experts (MoE) within Transformers. With these designs, Moirai-MoE reduces reliance on human-defined heuristics and enables automatic token-level specialization. Extensive experiments on 39 datasets demonstrate the superiority of Moirai-MoE over existing foundation models in both in-distribution and zero-shot scenarios. Furthermore, this study conducts comprehensive model analyses to explore the inner workings of time series MoE foundation models and provides valuable insights for future research.

  • 10 authors
·
Oct 14, 2024

Lying Is Just a Phase: The Hidden Alignment Transition in Language Model Scaling

Scaling laws predict loss from compute but not how capabilities interact. We measure the coupling between reasoning and truthfulness across 63 base models from 16 families and find a regime change invisible to loss curves: below a family-dependent critical scale N_c, capabilities anticorrelate; above it, they cooperate. N_c approx 3.5B parameters [2.9B, 13.4B] (bootstrap 95% CI), but model size is not the only variable that determines phase. Architecture, data curation, and training recipe each shift N_c independently: curated training eliminated the coupling dip between Qwen generations (0.025 to 0.830 at matched scale), Gemma-4 at 4B achieves coupling 0.871, characteristic of 13B+ standard-trained models, through distillation and architectural innovation, and Phi at 1B matches web-trained coupling at 10B through data curation alone. Width normalization eliminates the anticorrelation across all tested families, supporting an output-projection bottleneck. Internally, 38 of 40 models show zero competing attention heads. A sparse-regression ODE cross-predicts held-out Llama-2 at 5.6% error. The diagnostic requires no model internals -- only public benchmark scores across a model family. The cooperative regime extends to the frontier (r = +0.72, 34 models, 10 labs). Code, data, and an open-source activation-steering tool for any open-weight model are released alongside an interactive dashboard that diagnoses any model's coupling phase, suggests concrete interventions (data curation, width, benchmark rotation), and provides ODE scaling predictions, frontier diagnostics, and eigenstructure analysis: https://zehenlabs.com/cape/.

  • 1 authors
·
May 12

LLM-based Embeddings: Attention Values Encode Sentence Semantics Better Than Hidden States

Sentence representations are foundational to many Natural Language Processing (NLP) applications. While recent methods leverage Large Language Models (LLMs) to derive sentence representations, most rely on final-layer hidden states, which are optimized for next-token prediction and thus often fail to capture global, sentence-level semantics. This paper introduces a novel perspective, demonstrating that attention value vectors capture sentence semantics more effectively than hidden states. We propose Value Aggregation (VA), a simple method that pools token values across multiple layers and token indices. In a training-free setting, VA outperforms other LLM-based embeddings, even matches or surpasses the ensemble-based MetaEOL. Furthermore, we demonstrate that when paired with suitable prompts, the layer attention outputs can be interpreted as aligned weighted value vectors. Specifically, the attention scores of the last token function as the weights, while the output projection matrix (W_O) aligns these weighted value vectors with the common space of the LLM residual stream. This refined method, termed Aligned Weighted VA (AlignedWVA), achieves state-of-the-art performance among training-free LLM-based embeddings, outperforming the high-cost MetaEOL by a substantial margin. Finally, we highlight the potential of obtaining strong LLM embedding models through fine-tuning Value Aggregation.

  • 6 authors
·
Jun 10

A Controlled Study of Attention-Only Transformers

Feed-forward networks hold two thirds of a transformer's non-embedding parameters, yet the architecture has not received a necessity test that controls parameters, compute, and depth at once. We pretrain attention-only decoder transformers (Simple Attention Networks, SANs) against standard transformers matched separately for parameter count, training FLOPs, and depth (2 to 48 layers), for up to 105B tokens at 6M to 87M parameters. Deleting feed-forward layers in place is costly: the standard transformer leads by 0.47 nats at matched depth and 0.26 nats at matched FLOPs. Reallocating the freed budget into attention depth closes the gap: at matched parameters the difference is 0.006 nats (0.27 percent of loss), reproducible to one part in ten thousand across seed pairs, shrinking across 5B, 30B, and 105B budgets, and holding near 0.02 nats across a 29x size range. Three measurements localize the remaining gap to parametric recall: attention-only models are better on context-grounded answers and worse where knowledge must come from weights. Weight spectra show why: routing matrices (Q/K) crystallize early, content matrices accumulate rank slowly, and removing feed-forward layers relocates this accumulation to the attention output projection. QK-normalization, not feed-forward layers or residual gating, keeps 48-layer attention-only stacks trainable. The deficit concentrates on low-context query prediction and localizes there entirely by the largest budget. A pre-registered test confirms the account: it predicts a 0.02 to 0.05 nat gap on knowledge-dense web text; a matched pair trained on fineweb-edu measures 0.040. Within the tested regime, attention does the rest.

  • 8 authors
·
Jul 19

Gated-SwinRMT: Unifying Swin Windowed Attention with Retentive Manhattan Decay via Input-Dependent Gating

We introduce Gated-SwinRMT, a family of hybrid vision transformers that combine the shifted-window attention of the Swin Transformer with the Manhattan-distance spatial decay of Retentive Networks (RMT), augmented by input-dependent gating. Self-attention is decomposed into consecutive width-wise and height-wise retention passes within each shifted window, where per-head exponential decay masks provide a two-dimensional locality prior without learned positional biases. Two variants are proposed. Gated-SwinRMT-SWAT substitutes softmax with sigmoid activation, implements balanced ALiBi slopes with multiplicative post-activation spatial decay, and gates the value projection via SwiGLU; the Normalized output implicitly suppresses uninformative attention scores. Gated-SwinRMT-Retention retains softmax-normalized retention with an additive log-space decay bias and incorporates an explicit G1 sigmoid gate -- projected from the block input and applied after local context enhancement (LCE) but prior to the output projection~W_O -- to alleviate the low-rank W_V !cdot! W_O bottleneck and enable input-dependent suppression of attended outputs. We assess both variants on Mini-ImageNet (224{times}224, 100 classes) and CIFAR-10 (32{times}32, 10 classes) under identical training protocols, utilizing a single GPU due to resource limitations. At {approx}77--79\,M parameters, Gated-SwinRMT-SWAT achieves 80.22% and Gated-SwinRMT-Retention 78.20% top-1 test accuracy on Mini-ImageNet, compared with 73.74% for the RMT baseline. On CIFAR-10 -- where small feature maps cause the adaptive windowing mechanism to collapse attention to global scope -- the accuracy advantage compresses from +6.48\,pp to +0.56\,pp.

  • 3 authors
·
Apr 6

Qwen-Video-Edit: Instruction-Based Video Editing by Repurposing an Image Editing Model

Instruction-based video editing is commonly built on video-pretrained generative backbones: a video diffusion transformer is adapted, at considerable cost, to condition on a source video and an editing instruction. In this report we explore a different route and show that a strong instruction-based image editing model can edit videos by operating directly on video-VAE latents. Starting from Qwen-Image-Edit, we arrange the latent frames of a Wan~2.1 video VAE as tiles of one large virtual image, reuse the editor's image positional encoding for every tile, and bridge the two latent spaces with a pair of lightweight input/output projections warm-started from the editor's own patchify and unpatchify layers, so that at initialization a (static) video is embedded exactly as an image the model already understands. The whole system is then fine-tuned on the public Ditto-1M editing triplets, and a few denoising steps of Wan~2.2 serve as an optional temporal enhancer. We motivate the design with a chain of zero-training observations: the stock image editor already edits a video presented as a contact sheet; it is indifferent to whether the sheet's tokens come from one joint encode or from per-frame encodes stitched in latent space; and it even edits genuine video latents zero-shot to a clearly recognizable degree, leaving fine-tuning only a fidelity gap to close. Our results suggest that, despite the large investment in training video latent spaces, per-frame video latents remain close enough to the image domain that mature image editing priors transfer with minimal adaptation. Project Page: https://yunpeng1998.github.io/Qwen-Video-Edit-Page; Code: https://github.com/yunpeng1998/Qwen-Video-Edit; Model: https://huggingface.co/yunpeng1998/Qwen-Video-Edit.

  • 4 authors
·
Aug 13 1

The Right Answer, the Wrong Direction: Why Transformers Fail at Counting and How to Fix It

Large language models often fail at simple counting tasks, even when the items to count are explicitly present in the prompt. We investigate whether this failure occurs because transformers do not represent counts internally, or because they cannot convert those representations into the correct output tokens. Across three model families, Pythia, Qwen3, and Mistral, ranging from 0.4B to 14B parameters, we find strong evidence for the second explanation. Linear probes recover the correct count from intermediate layers with near-perfect accuracy (R^2>0.99), showing that the information is present. However, the internal directions that encode counts are nearly orthogonal to the output-head rows for digit tokens (|cos|leq0.032). In other words, the model stores the count in a form that the digit logits do not naturally read out. We localize this failure with two interventions. Updating only the digit rows of the output head (36,864 parameters) substantially improves constrained next-token digit prediction (60.7 to 100.0% across four tasks), but it does not fix autoregressive generation. By contrast, a small LoRA intervention on attention Q/V weights (7.67M parameters) improves upstream routing and achieves 83.1% +/- 7.2% in true greedy autoregressive generation. Logit-lens measurements confirm the mechanism: the correct digit's vocabulary rank drops from 55,980 to 1, a 50,000x improvement. Additional norm, logit-lens, and cross-task analyses show that the bottleneck generalizes across character counting, addition, and list length, while remaining absent from broader multi-step reasoning benchmarks, including MMLU, GSM8K, and DROP. These results identify counting failure as a geometric readout bottleneck rather than a failure of internal representation: the model knows the count but the output pathway is geometrically misaligned with the tokens needed to express it.

  • 1 authors
·
May 4

FRAPPE: Full Input, Residual Output Autoencoding with Projection Pursuit Encoder

Media compression standards have reached a plateau in terms of the rate-distortion-complexity trade-off, limiting the ability to offload expensive AI perception to the cloud in applications like robotics, wearables, and remote sensing. DNN-based codecs improve compression efficiency, but at a cost: they cannot easily adapt to large changes in available bitrate, and real-time encoding requires expensive, power-hungry GPUs that prohibit use on low-cost or resource-constrained platforms. To address these limitations, we propose a novel autoencoding framework (FRAPPE) that uses the Full input to predict the Residual output via a Projection Pursuit Encoder. FRAPPE's encoding objective naturally sorts latent channels by importance, allowing zero-overhead variable-rate coding. Unlike RNN-based learned codecs, whose encoder consumes the previous reconstruction's residual, or RVQ-style codecs, whose codebooks must be applied sequentially, FRAPPE's analysis path is an embarrassingly parallel DAG of independent input projections. Using FRAPPE, we build a variable-rate RGB image codec (FRAPPE-Image), and evaluate its rate-distortion-complexity trade-off against standard image codecs. At high compression ratios (approx. 0.1 bpp) FRAPPE-Image provides higher perceptual quality than AVIF with 47 times faster encoding, making it capable of real-time 1080p, 30fps CPU-only encoding. Our code and pre-trained models are available: https://github.com/UT-SysML/FRAPPE .

  • 2 authors
·
May 26 2

VQ-Logits: Compressing the Output Bottleneck of Large Language Models via Vector Quantized Logits

Large Language Models (LLMs) have achieved remarkable success but face significant computational and memory challenges, particularly due to their extensive output vocabularies. The final linear projection layer, mapping hidden states to vocabulary-sized logits, often constitutes a substantial portion of the model's parameters and computational cost during inference. Existing methods like adaptive softmax or hierarchical softmax introduce structural complexities. In this paper, we propose VQ-Logits, a novel approach that leverages Vector Quantization (VQ) to drastically reduce the parameter count and computational load of the LLM output layer. VQ-Logits replaces the large V * dmodel output embedding matrix with a small, shared codebook of K embedding vectors (K << V ). Each token in the vocabulary is mapped to one of these K codebook vectors. The LLM predicts logits over this compact codebook, which are then efficiently "scattered" to the full vocabulary space using the learned or preassigned mapping. We demonstrate through extensive experiments on standard language modeling benchmarks (e.g., WikiText-103, C4) that VQ-Logits can achieve up to 99% parameter reduction in the output layer and 6x speedup in logit computation, with only a marginal 4% increase in perplexity compared to full softmax baselines. We further provide detailed ablation studies on codebook size, initialization, and learning strategies, showcasing the robustness and effectiveness of our approach.

  • 7 authors
·
May 15, 2025

Linear Projections of Teacher Embeddings for Few-Class Distillation

Knowledge Distillation (KD) has emerged as a promising approach for transferring knowledge from a larger, more complex teacher model to a smaller student model. Traditionally, KD involves training the student to mimic the teacher's output probabilities, while more advanced techniques have explored guiding the student to adopt the teacher's internal representations. Despite its widespread success, the performance of KD in binary classification and few-class problems has been less satisfactory. This is because the information about the teacher model's generalization patterns scales directly with the number of classes. Moreover, several sophisticated distillation methods may not be universally applicable or effective for data types beyond Computer Vision. Consequently, effective distillation techniques remain elusive for a range of key real-world applications, such as sentiment analysis, search query understanding, and advertisement-query relevance assessment. Taking these observations into account, we introduce a novel method for distilling knowledge from the teacher's model representations, which we term Learning Embedding Linear Projections (LELP). Inspired by recent findings about the structure of final-layer representations, LELP works by identifying informative linear subspaces in the teacher's embedding space, and splitting them into pseudo-subclasses. The student model is then trained to replicate these pseudo-classes. Our experimental evaluation on large-scale NLP benchmarks like Amazon Reviews and Sentiment140 demonstrate the LELP is consistently competitive with, and typically superior to, existing state-of-the-art distillation algorithms for binary and few-class problems, where most KD methods suffer.

  • 4 authors
·
Sep 30, 2024

X-Token: Projection-Guided Cross-Tokenizer Knowledge Distillation

Cross-tokenizer knowledge distillation allows a student model to learn from teachers with incompatible vocabularies. Prior work operates on hidden states or logits; the latter is preferred as a drop-in replacement requiring no auxiliary components. Logit-based methods either use only the correct-token probability, missing the full 'dark knowledge' in the teacher's distribution, or operate on the full output distribution, relying on strict token partitioning and/or unprincipled heuristic ranking. We identify two key shortcomings of full-distribution, logit-based methods: (i) an uncommon-token failure, where critical tokens fall into the unmatched subset (e.g., Llama's 1100 multi-digit numerals under digit-splitting Qwen supervision) and are suppressed during training, reducing GSM8k from 12.89 to 2.56 compared to same-tokenizer KD from a weaker teacher; and (ii) over-conservative matching, where strict 1-to-1 matching excludes near-equivalent tokens across surface forms. These failures require distinct remedies: eliminating the partition when critical tokens are misaligned, and refining it when alignment is reliable. We propose X-Token, an approach with two complementary loss formulations targeting these issues. P-KL removes partitioning and aligns the student's distribution with the teacher's via a sparse projection matrix W (initialized from tokenizer-level string rules) to address the uncommon-token failure. H-KL retains the hybrid form while relaxing matching to align each student token with its top-ranked teacher mapping under W. Both objectives share W and extend naturally to multiple teachers. Empirically, on Llama-3.2-1B, X-Token outperforms the current state of the art GOLD by +3.82 average points with a Qwen3-4B teacher and by +0.5 with a Phi-4-Mini teacher. Further, a two-teacher setup (Phi-4-mini + Llama-3B) improves over single-teacher distillation by +1.3 points.

  • 7 authors
·
May 19

PhysGuard: Fisher-Guided Gradient Projection for Sim-to-Real Neural PDE Surrogates

Neural operator models trained on simulation data often lose accuracy when applied to experimental measurements due to the sim-to-real gap. Standard fine-tuning with limited real data can reduce this gap, but it may also damage the core physics-relevant representations learned during pretraining. Although knowledge-preserving adaptation has been widely investigated in vision or language tasks, it remains unclear whether these methods are suitable for neural operators whose architectures and protected knowledge are fundamentally different. Neural operators need to preserve core-scale physical structures rather than semantic or visual features. We propose PhysGuard, a physics-preserving framework for accurate sim-to-real adaptation of neural operators. Specifically, PhysGuard uses the empirical Fisher Information Matrix computed on simulation data to identify physics-critical parameter directions, then restricts fine-tuning updates to directions that do not interfere with them. A layer-wise Gram-matrix formulation makes this efficient for models with millions of parameters, while an adaptive threshold automatically determines the protected subspace size. A spectral probe experiment shows that the dominant Fisher directions are strongly associated with low-frequency output structures. Experiments on benchmark across four neural operator architectures and different physical systems show that PhysGuard performs strongly on most evaluation metrics compared to baselines. The benefits are most evident under severe domain shift, where it reduces low-frequency error by up to 32\% compared to standard fine-tuning while maintaining adaptability. Our code is available at https://github.com/ZhouChaunge/PhysGuard.

  • 6 authors
·
Jun 14

Projections of Earth's Technosphere: Luminosity and Mass as Limits to Growth

Earth remains the only known example of a planet with technology, and future projections of Earth's trajectory provide a basis and motivation for approaching the search for extraterrestrial technospheres. Conventional approaches toward projecting Earth's technosphere include applications of the Kardashev scale, which suggest the possibility that energy-intensive civilizations may expand to harness the entire energy output available to their planet, host star, or even the entire galaxy. In this study, we argue that the Kardashev scale is better understood as a "luminosity limit" that describes the maximum capacity for a civilization to harvest luminous stellar energy across a given spatial domain, and we note that thermodynamic efficiency will always keep a luminosity-limited technosphere from actually reaching this theoretical limit. We suggest the possibility that an advanced technosphere might evolve beyond this luminosity limit to draw its energy directly from harvesting stellar mass, and we also discuss possible trajectories that could exist between Earth today and such hypothetical "stellivores." We develop a framework to describe trajectories for long-lived technospheres that optimize their growth strategies between exploration and exploitation, unlike Earth today. We note that analyses of compact accreting stars could provide ways to test the stellivore hypothesis, and we more broadly suggest an expansion of technosignature search strategies beyond those that reside exactly at the luminosity limit.

  • 3 authors
·
Oct 30, 2024

LoRA-Mixer: Coordinate Modular LoRA Experts Through Serial Attention Routing

Recent efforts to combine low-rank adaptation (LoRA) with mixture-of-experts (MoE) for adapting large language models (LLMs) to multiple tasks still exhibit prevailing limitations: they either swap entire attention/feed-forward layers for switch experts or bolt on parallel expert branches, diluting parameter efficiency and task fidelity. We propose the LoRA-Mixer, a modular and lightweight MoE framework that integrates LoRA experts. Our core innovation lies in replacing the projection matrices of the attention module's input/output linear layers with dynamically routed, task-specific LoRA experts. This design ensures seamless compatibility with diverse foundation models, including transformers and state space models (SSMs), by leveraging their inherent linear projection structures. The framework supports two operational paradigms: (1) joint optimization of LoRA experts and routing mechanisms via a novel hard-soft routing strategy, or (2) direct deployment of pre-trained, frozen LoRA modules sourced from external repositories. To enable robust router training with limited data while ensuring stable routing decisions and maximizing expert reuse, we introduce an adaptive Specialization Balance Loss (SBL) that jointly optimizes expert balance and task-specific alignment. Extensive experiments on seven benchmark datasets, including MedQA, CoLA, SST-2, GSM8K, ARC-E, ARC-C, and HumanEval, demonstrate the effectiveness of LoRA-Mixer. On datasets such as GSM8K, HumanEval, and MedQA, LoRA-Mixer achieves significant improvements of 7.61%, 4.88%, and 3.08% over the base models, respectively. Compared with state-of-the-art methods, LoRA-Mixer achieves additional improvements of 1.09%, 1.45%, and 1.68%, respectively, using only 48% of the parameters, demonstrating its efficiency and strong performance.

  • 6 authors
·
Jun 17, 2025

COSPADI: Compressing LLMs via Calibration-Guided Sparse Dictionary Learning

Post-training compression of large language models (LLMs) largely relies on low-rank weight approximation, which represents each column of a weight matrix in a shared low-dimensional subspace. While this is a computationally efficient strategy, the imposed structural constraint is rigid and can lead to a noticeable model accuracy drop. In this work, we propose CoSpaDi (Compression via Sparse Dictionary Learning), a novel training-free compression framework that replaces low-rank decomposition with a more flexible structured sparse factorization in which each weight matrix is represented with a dense dictionary and a column-sparse coefficient matrix. This formulation enables a union-of-subspaces representation: different columns of the original weight matrix are approximated in distinct subspaces spanned by adaptively selected dictionary atoms, offering greater expressiveness than a single invariant basis. Crucially, CoSpaDi leverages a small calibration dataset to optimize the factorization such that the output activations of compressed projection layers closely match those of the original ones, thereby minimizing functional reconstruction error rather than mere weight approximation. This data-aware strategy preserves better model fidelity without any fine-tuning under reasonable compression ratios. Moreover, the resulting structured sparsity allows efficient sparse-dense matrix multiplication and is compatible with post-training quantization for further memory and latency gains. We evaluate CoSpaDi across multiple Llama and Qwen models under per-layer and per-group settings at 20-50\% compression ratios, demonstrating consistent superiority over state-of-the-art data-aware low-rank methods both in accuracy and perplexity. Our results establish structured sparse dictionary learning as a powerful alternative to conventional low-rank approaches for efficient LLM deployment.

MTSAIR MWS AI
·
Sep 26, 2025 2

Logit-Contribution Scoring Identifies Non-Literal Retrieval Heads

In long-context use, large language models frequently synthesize answers from the meaning of a relevant context span rather than literally copy-pasting them. Identifying which attention heads perform this synthesis matters for interpreting long-context model behavior. Yet existing detectors miss these heads by construction: they reward heads whose attended token matches the generated token, a literal-copy criterion that captures where a head reads but not what it writes through its output-value (OV) circuit, the very mechanism that carries non-literal retrieval. We introduce Logit-Contribution Scoring (LOCOS), a write-aware detector that scores each head by the projection of its OV-circuit output onto the answer-token unembedding direction, contrasting needle and off-needle source positions in a single forward pass. Across three model families (Qwen3, Gemma-3, OLMo-3.1), mean-ablating the top LOCOS heads on the NoLiMa non-literal retrieval benchmark collapses ROUGE-L at lower head counts than prior attention-based detections; on Qwen3-8B, ablating 50 heads drives ROUGE-L from 0.401 to 0.000 while the strongest baseline still retains 0.292. The selected heads are retrieval-specific: parametric recall and arithmetic reasoning stay at baseline under the same ablation. On Qwen3-8B, the same ablation also drops MuSiQue from 0.55 to 0.08 and BABI-Long from 0.62 to 0.20, while a random-heads control stays within 0.05 of baseline.

  • 3 authors
·
Jun 30 2

Gated Recurrent Transformers: Expressive Depth through Recurrent Modulation

Scaling transformer language models creates an inherent tension between expressivity and memory efficiency. While unique weights across layers preserve functional specialization---from input-grounding to abstract refinement---they incur a substantial memory footprint. Conversely, standard depth-sharing enforces uniform transformations that collapse representational diversity and degrade modeling quality. We introduce Gated Recurrent Transformer, a recurrent depth transformer where fixed-depth prelude and coda blocks bracket a single shared core iterated R times. Inspired by gated recurrent neural networks, we employ a lightweight projection and an elementwise update gate---conditioned on the hidden state, the fixed prelude output, and noise resampled at every step---to modulate the recurrent update. This allows the model to specialize the input to the same few layers across recurrences, rather than requiring many unique layers to achieve functional diversity. Under an isoFLOPS constraint, a 3-layer Gated Recurrent Transformer matches the accuracy of a 12-layer GPT-2 Small baseline with similar training and inference FLOPs, and leads MoR and heavy-tail depth sampling in all nine scale-by-budget cells; at medium and large scale it approaches dense quality at the standard token budget and overtakes it at medium scale once that budget is doubled. Under an isoPARAMS constraint, deeper recurrence achieves a 2.76 validation loss versus 2.84 for a non-recurrent counterpart at matched parameter and data budget. Our results demonstrate that adaptive depth reuse is a principled strategy for trading parameters for quality: at large scale, 63% fewer parameters and 59% less peak decoding memory for a 10% increase in compiled generation latency.

EvoForest: A Novel Machine-Learning Paradigm via Open-Ended Evolution of Computational Graphs

Modern machine learning is still largely organized around a single recipe: choose a parameterized model family and optimize its weights. Although highly successful, this paradigm is too narrow for many structured prediction problems, where the main bottleneck is not parameter fitting but discovering what should be computed from the data. Success often depends on identifying the right transformations, statistics, invariances, interaction structures, temporal summaries, gates, or nonlinear compositions, especially when objectives are non-differentiable, evaluation is cross-validation-based, interpretability matters, or continual adaptation is required. We present EvoForest, a hybrid neuro-symbolic system for end-to-end open-ended evolution of computation. Rather than merely generating features, EvoForest jointly evolves reusable computational structure, callable function families, and trainable low-dimensional continuous components inside a shared directed acyclic graph. Intermediate nodes store alternative implementations, callable nodes encode reusable transformation families such as projections, gates, and activations, output nodes define candidate predictive computations, and persistent global parameters can be refined by gradient descent. For each graph configuration, EvoForest evaluates the discovered computation and uses a lightweight Ridge-based readout to score the resulting representation against a non-differentiable cross-validation target. The evaluator also produces structured feedback that guides future LLM-driven mutations. In the 2025 ADIA Lab Structural Break Challenge, EvoForest reached 94.13% ROC-AUC after 600 evolution steps, exceeding the publicly reported winning score of 90.14% under the same evaluation protocol.

  • 2 authors
·
Mar 25

Attack Detection in Dynamic Games with Quadratic Measurements

This paper studies attack detection for discrete-time linear systems with stochastic process noise that produce both a vulnerable (i.e., attackable) linear measurement and a secured (i.e., unattackable) quadratic measurement. The motivating application of this model is a dynamic-game setting where the quadratic measurement is interpreted as a system-level utility or reward, and control inputs into the linear system are interpreted as control policies that, once applied, are known to all game participants and which steer the system towards a game-theoretic equilibrium (e.g., Nash equilibrium). To detect attacks on the linear channel, we develop a novel quadratic-utility-aware observer that leverages the secured quadratic output and enforces measurement consistency via a projection step. We establish three properties for this observer: feasibility of the true state, prox-regularity of the quadratic-constraint set, and a monotone error-reduction guarantee in the noise-free case. To detect adversarial manipulation, we compare linear and quadratic observer trajectories using a wild bootstrap maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) test that provides valid inference under temporal dependence. We validate our framework using numerical experiments of a pursuit-evasion game, where the quadratic observer preserves estimation accuracy under linear-sensor attacks, while the statistical test detects distributional divergence between the observers' trajectories.

  • 2 authors
·
Sep 30, 2025

QuantVLA: Scale-Calibrated Post-Training Quantization for Vision-Language-Action Models

Vision-language-action (VLA) models unify perception, language, and control for embodied agents but face significant challenges in practical deployment due to rapidly increasing compute and memory demands, especially as models scale to longer horizons and larger backbones. To address these bottlenecks, we introduce QuantVLA, a training-free post-training quantization (PTQ) framework that, to our knowledge, is the first PTQ approach for VLA systems and the first to successfully quantize a diffusion transformer (DiT) action head. QuantVLA incorporates three scale-calibrated components: (1) a selective quantization layout that integerizes all linear layers in both the language backbone and the DiT while keeping attention projections in floating point to preserve the original operator schedule; (2) attention temperature matching, a lightweight per-head scaling mechanism that stabilizes attention logits and is folded into the dequantization scales at inference; and (3) output head balancing, a per-layer residual interface calibration that mitigates post-projection energy drift. The framework requires no additional training, uses only a small unlabeled calibration buffer, and supports integer kernels for low-bit weights and activations while leaving the architecture unchanged. Across representative VLA models on LIBERO, QuantVLA exceeds the task success rates of full-precision baselines, achieves about 70% relative memory savings on the quantized components, and delivers a 1.22x speedup in end-to-end inference latency, providing a practical pathway toward scalable low-bit embodied intelligence under strict compute, memory, and power constraints.

  • 8 authors
·
Feb 23 4

Why Gated DeltaNet Survives 4-Bit Quantization: NVFP4 W4A4 for the Recurrent Half of a Hybrid 27B LLM

Hybrid LLMs pair softmax attention with linear-attention layers such as Gated DeltaNet (GDN), whose recurrent state summarizes the context in fixed size. Early community 4-bit quantizations of Qwen3.8-27B (48 GDN layers, 16 attention layers) left the GDN block in 8- or 16-bit precision -- especially its decay and write-strength gates -- on the intuition that errors in a recurrence accumulate over long contexts. We test that intuition by building Minima: NVFP4 W4A4 on all 496 linear layers, GDN included. Across perplexity at 4K/32K, MMLU-Pro, GSM8K, AIME'25, GPQA-Diamond, LiveCodeBench, and RULER retrieval to 64K, Minima matches BF16 within seed noise (5-task average -0.52) while being the smallest (17.5 GiB) and fastest-prefill (+14-19%) recipe we compare, and its 32K perplexity gap shrinks with position. A four-part mechanism study explains why: (i) NVFP4's 16-element block scaling localizes the residual stream's extreme outliers, equalizing activation error across layer roles; (ii) the supposedly fragile gate projections are the least sensitive -- softplus/exponential and sigmoid parameterizations compress ~11% GEMM error to ~2% output error; (iii) the delta-rule recurrence holds injected noise at a flat plateau over 32K tokens and forgets a state impulse within hundreds of steps, because each write overwrites the state along the current key direction; (iv) the per-token quantization cost washes out with context instead of compounding. We also repair a global-scale mismatch that arises when per-module-calibrated NVFP4 checkpoints are served by kernels that fuse those modules into one GEMM, and show calibrated FP8 KV-cache scales are performance-free. The result: a practical recipe -- quantize everything, ship KV scales -- and a mechanistic account of why the recurrent half of a hybrid LLM is the easy half to quantize. Checkpoint: https://huggingface.co/minima-ai/mnma_qwen3.8_27b_nvfp4

minima-ai Minima AI
·
Sep 2 2

BioMatrix: Towards a Comprehensive Biological Foundation Model Spanning the Modality Matrix of Sequences, Structures, and Language

We present BioMatrix, the first multimodal foundation model that natively integrates sequences, structures, and natural language for both molecules and proteins within a single decoder-only architecture. Existing biological foundation models pursue native multimodality and broad entity coverage separately: those that fuse multiple modalities under a shared objective remain confined to a single entity type, while those spanning multiple entity types either omit explicit structural modeling or rely on adapter-based designs in which the model cannot natively generate the very modalities it can read. BioMatrix closes this gap by mapping molecular sequences (supporting both SMILES and SELFIES notations), molecular structures, protein sequences, protein structures, and natural language into a shared discrete token space through a unified tokenization scheme, so that all modalities are consumed and produced uniformly under a single next-token prediction objective -- without external encoders, projection adapters, or modality-specific output heads. Built upon the Qwen3 language model (1.7B and 4B), BioMatrix is continually pretrained on 304.4 billion tokens spanning general and domain-specific text, sequence and structure views of molecules and proteins, and cross-modal corpora that interleave biomolecular entities with scientific text and link distinct entities through molecule-protein and protein-protein interaction data. After tuning on a comprehensive suite of downstream applications covering 80 tasks across 6 categories -- encompassing single-entity and multi-entity understanding and generation tasks across and within modalities -- BioMatrix achieves state-of-the-art or competitive performance on 77 out of 80 tasks, demonstrating that a single, natively multimodal generalist model can effectively match or surpass specialized approaches across a wide range of biological tasks.

Training-Free Token Pruning via Zeroth-Order Gradient Estimation in Vision-Language Models

Large Vision-Language Models (VLMs) enable strong multimodal reasoning but incur heavy inference costs from redundant visual tokens. Token pruning alleviates this issue, yet existing approaches face limitations. Attention-based methods rely on raw attention scores, which are often unstable across layers and heads and can lead to redundant selections. Diversity-based methods improve robustness by selecting tokens far apart in feature space but risk dropping regions needed for accurate prediction. We propose \ours, a training-free framework built on a simple intuition: tokens with higher sensitivity are more likely to influence the model's output, and they should also capture complementary visual cues rather than overlapping information. To achieve this, we estimate token sensitivity using zeroth-order perturbations at the projection layer, a shallow and computationally light component of the model. This approach measures how small random perturbations affect the projection outputs, allowing us to approximate each token's influence through lightweight forward passes without backpropagation. Extensive experiments across multiple VLMs and benchmarks show that \ours consistently outperforms prior methods, pruning up to 94.4\% of tokens while maintaining accuracy and significantly improving efficiency, achieving up to 2.30x faster end-to-end inference over the baseline.

  • 6 authors
·
Sep 29, 2025

Learning Structured Output Representations from Attributes using Deep Conditional Generative Models

Structured output representation is a generative task explored in computer vision that often times requires the mapping of low dimensional features to high dimensional structured outputs. Losses in complex spatial information in deterministic approaches such as Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) lead to uncertainties and ambiguous structures within a single output representation. A probabilistic approach through deep Conditional Generative Models (CGM) is presented by Sohn et al. in which a particular model known as the Conditional Variational Auto-encoder (CVAE) is introduced and explored. While the original paper focuses on the task of image segmentation, this paper adopts the CVAE framework for the task of controlled output representation through attributes. This approach allows us to learn a disentangled multimodal prior distribution, resulting in more controlled and robust approach to sample generation. In this work we recreate the CVAE architecture and train it on images conditioned on various attributes obtained from two image datasets; the Large-scale CelebFaces Attributes (CelebA) dataset and the Caltech-UCSD Birds (CUB-200-2011) dataset. We attempt to generate new faces with distinct attributes such as hair color and glasses, as well as different bird species samples with various attributes. We further introduce strategies for improving generalized sample generation by applying a weighted term to the variational lower bound.

  • 1 authors
·
Apr 30, 2023

Weighted least-squares approximation with determinantal point processes and generalized volume sampling

We consider the problem of approximating a function from L^2 by an element of a given m-dimensional space V_m, associated with some feature map varphi, using evaluations of the function at random points x_1,dots,x_n. After recalling some results on optimal weighted least-squares using independent and identically distributed points, we consider weighted least-squares using projection determinantal point processes (DPP) or volume sampling. These distributions introduce dependence between the points that promotes diversity in the selected features varphi(x_i). We first provide a generalized version of volume-rescaled sampling yielding quasi-optimality results in expectation with a number of samples n = O(mlog(m)), that means that the expected L^2 error is bounded by a constant times the best approximation error in L^2. Also, further assuming that the function is in some normed vector space H continuously embedded in L^2, we further prove that the approximation is almost surely bounded by the best approximation error measured in the H-norm. This includes the cases of functions from L^infty or reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces. Finally, we present an alternative strategy consisting in using independent repetitions of projection DPP (or volume sampling), yielding similar error bounds as with i.i.d. or volume sampling, but in practice with a much lower number of samples. Numerical experiments illustrate the performance of the different strategies.

  • 2 authors
·
Dec 21, 2023

MLE convergence speed to information projection of exponential family: Criterion for model dimension and sample size -- complete proof version--

For a parametric model of distributions, the closest distribution in the model to the true distribution located outside the model is considered. Measuring the closeness between two distributions with the Kullback-Leibler (K-L) divergence, the closest distribution is called the "information projection." The estimation risk of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) is defined as the expectation of K-L divergence between the information projection and the predictive distribution with plugged-in MLE. Here, the asymptotic expansion of the risk is derived up to n^{-2}-order, and the sufficient condition on the risk for the Bayes error rate between the true distribution and the information projection to be lower than a specified value is investigated. Combining these results, the "p-n criterion" is proposed, which determines whether the MLE is sufficiently close to the information projection for the given model and sample. In particular, the criterion for an exponential family model is relatively simple and can be used for a complex model with no explicit form of normalizing constant. This criterion can constitute a solution to the sample size or model acceptance problem. Use of the p-n criteria is demonstrated for two practical datasets. The relationship between the results and information criteria is also studied.

  • 1 authors
·
May 19, 2021

OReX: Object Reconstruction from Planar Cross-sections Using Neural Fields

Reconstructing 3D shapes from planar cross-sections is a challenge inspired by downstream applications like medical imaging and geographic informatics. The input is an in/out indicator function fully defined on a sparse collection of planes in space, and the output is an interpolation of the indicator function to the entire volume. Previous works addressing this sparse and ill-posed problem either produce low quality results, or rely on additional priors such as target topology, appearance information, or input normal directions. In this paper, we present OReX, a method for 3D shape reconstruction from slices alone, featuring a Neural Field as the interpolation prior. A modest neural network is trained on the input planes to return an inside/outside estimate for a given 3D coordinate, yielding a powerful prior that induces smoothness and self-similarities. The main challenge for this approach is high-frequency details, as the neural prior is overly smoothing. To alleviate this, we offer an iterative estimation architecture and a hierarchical input sampling scheme that encourage coarse-to-fine training, allowing the training process to focus on high frequencies at later stages. In addition, we identify and analyze a ripple-like effect stemming from the mesh extraction step. We mitigate it by regularizing the spatial gradients of the indicator function around input in/out boundaries during network training, tackling the problem at the root. Through extensive qualitative and quantitative experimentation, we demonstrate our method is robust, accurate, and scales well with the size of the input. We report state-of-the-art results compared to previous approaches and recent potential solutions, and demonstrate the benefit of our individual contributions through analysis and ablation studies.

  • 3 authors
·
Nov 23, 2022

Neural Unsigned Distance Fields for Implicit Function Learning

In this work we target a learnable output representation that allows continuous, high resolution outputs of arbitrary shape. Recent works represent 3D surfaces implicitly with a Neural Network, thereby breaking previous barriers in resolution, and ability to represent diverse topologies. However, neural implicit representations are limited to closed surfaces, which divide the space into inside and outside. Many real world objects such as walls of a scene scanned by a sensor, clothing, or a car with inner structures are not closed. This constitutes a significant barrier, in terms of data pre-processing (objects need to be artificially closed creating artifacts), and the ability to output open surfaces. In this work, we propose Neural Distance Fields (NDF), a neural network based model which predicts the unsigned distance field for arbitrary 3D shapes given sparse point clouds. NDF represent surfaces at high resolutions as prior implicit models, but do not require closed surface data, and significantly broaden the class of representable shapes in the output. NDF allow to extract the surface as very dense point clouds and as meshes. We also show that NDF allow for surface normal calculation and can be rendered using a slight modification of sphere tracing. We find NDF can be used for multi-target regression (multiple outputs for one input) with techniques that have been exclusively used for rendering in graphics. Experiments on ShapeNet show that NDF, while simple, is the state-of-the art, and allows to reconstruct shapes with inner structures, such as the chairs inside a bus. Notably, we show that NDF are not restricted to 3D shapes, and can approximate more general open surfaces such as curves, manifolds, and functions. Code is available for research at https://virtualhumans.mpi-inf.mpg.de/ndf/.

  • 3 authors
·
Oct 26, 2020

Repulsor: Accelerating Generative Modeling with a Contrastive Memory Bank

The dominance of denoising generative models (e.g., diffusion, flow-matching) in visual synthesis is tempered by their substantial training costs and inefficiencies in representation learning. While injecting discriminative representations via auxiliary alignment has proven effective, this approach still faces key limitations: the reliance on external, pre-trained encoders introduces overhead and domain shift. A dispersed-based strategy that encourages strong separation among in-batch latent representations alleviates this specific dependency. To assess the effect of the number of negative samples in generative modeling, we propose {\mname}, a plug-and-play training framework that requires no external encoders. Our method integrates a memory bank mechanism that maintains a large, dynamically updated queue of negative samples across training iterations. This decouples the number of negatives from the mini-batch size, providing abundant and high-quality negatives for a contrastive objective without a multiplicative increase in computational cost. A low-dimensional projection head is used to further minimize memory and bandwidth overhead. {\mname} offers three principal advantages: (1) it is self-contained, eliminating dependency on pretrained vision foundation models and their associated forward-pass overhead; (2) it introduces no additional parameters or computational cost during inference; and (3) it enables substantially faster convergence, achieving superior generative quality more efficiently. On ImageNet-256, {\mname} achieves a state-of-the-art FID of 2.40 within 400k steps, significantly outperforming comparable methods.

  • 10 authors
·
Dec 9, 2025

Generative Pretrained Hierarchical Transformer for Time Series Forecasting

Recent efforts have been dedicated to enhancing time series forecasting accuracy by introducing advanced network architectures and self-supervised pretraining strategies. Nevertheless, existing approaches still exhibit two critical drawbacks. Firstly, these methods often rely on a single dataset for training, limiting the model's generalizability due to the restricted scale of the training data. Secondly, the one-step generation schema is widely followed, which necessitates a customized forecasting head and overlooks the temporal dependencies in the output series, and also leads to increased training costs under different horizon length settings. To address these issues, we propose a novel generative pretrained hierarchical transformer architecture for forecasting, named GPHT. There are two aspects of key designs in GPHT. On the one hand, we advocate for constructing a mixed dataset for pretraining our model, comprising various datasets from diverse data scenarios. This approach significantly expands the scale of training data, allowing our model to uncover commonalities in time series data and facilitating improved transfer to specific datasets. On the other hand, GPHT employs an auto-regressive forecasting approach under the channel-independent assumption, effectively modeling temporal dependencies in the output series. Importantly, no customized forecasting head is required, enabling a single model to forecast at arbitrary horizon settings. We conduct sufficient experiments on eight datasets with mainstream self-supervised pretraining models and supervised models. The results demonstrated that GPHT surpasses the baseline models across various fine-tuning and zero/few-shot learning settings in the traditional long-term forecasting task, providing support for verifying the feasibility of pretrained time series large models.

  • 5 authors
·
Feb 26, 2024

AquaCast: Urban Water Dynamics Forecasting with Precipitation-Informed Multi-Input Transformer

This work addresses the challenge of forecasting urban water dynamics by developing a multi-input, multi-output deep learning model that incorporates both endogenous variables (e.g., water height or discharge) and exogenous factors (e.g., precipitation history and forecast reports). Unlike conventional forecasting, the proposed model, AquaCast, captures both inter-variable and temporal dependencies across all inputs, while focusing forecast solely on endogenous variables. Exogenous inputs are fused via an embedding layer, eliminating the need to forecast them and enabling the model to attend to their short-term influences more effectively. We evaluate our approach on the LausanneCity dataset, which includes measurements from four urban drainage sensors, and demonstrate state-of-the-art performance when using only endogenous variables. Performance also improves with the inclusion of exogenous variables and forecast reports. To assess generalization and scalability, we additionally test the model on three large-scale synthesized datasets, generated from MeteoSwiss records, the Lorenz Attractors model, and the Random Fields model, each representing a different level of temporal complexity across 100 nodes. The results confirm that our model consistently outperforms existing baselines and maintains a robust and accurate forecast across both real and synthetic datasets.

  • 5 authors
·
Sep 11, 2025

Sparse Linear Regression is Easy on Random Supports

Sparse linear regression is one of the most basic questions in machine learning and statistics. Here, we are given as input a design matrix X in R^{N times d} and measurements or labels {y} in R^N where {y} = {X} {w}^* + {xi}, and {xi} is the noise in the measurements. Importantly, we have the additional constraint that the unknown signal vector {w}^* is sparse: it has k non-zero entries where k is much smaller than the ambient dimension. Our goal is to output a prediction vector {w} that has small prediction error: 1{N}cdot |{X} {w}^* - {X} {w}|^2_2. Information-theoretically, we know what is best possible in terms of measurements: under most natural noise distributions, we can get prediction error at most epsilon with roughly N = O(k log d/epsilon) samples. Computationally, this currently needs d^{Omega(k)} run-time. Alternately, with N = O(d), we can get polynomial-time. Thus, there is an exponential gap (in the dependence on d) between the two and we do not know if it is possible to get d^{o(k)} run-time and o(d) samples. We give the first generic positive result for worst-case design matrices {X}: For any {X}, we show that if the support of {w}^* is chosen at random, we can get prediction error epsilon with N = poly(k, log d, 1/epsilon) samples and run-time poly(d,N). This run-time holds for any design matrix {X} with condition number up to 2^{poly(d)}. Previously, such results were known for worst-case {w}^*, but only for random design matrices from well-behaved families, matrices that have a very low condition number (poly(log d); e.g., as studied in compressed sensing), or those with special structural properties.

  • 3 authors
·
Nov 8, 2025

Data-Driven Forecasting of three-Component Seismograms Using Transformer Architectures

Forecasting seismic waveforms beyond observed data remains challenging due to the nonlinear, dispersive, and multi-scale nature of seismic wave propagation. In this work, we introduce SeismoGPT, a transformer-based autoregressive model designed to forecast three-component seismic waveforms directly in the time domain. Forecasting is formulated as a physically constrained continuation problem in which the model receives waveform context beginning at the P-wave arrival and extending a defined time beyond the S-wave arrival, after which future motion is generated recursively without access to ground-truth samples. Evaluation is performed on synthetic seismograms spanning source depths of 5--100\,km, epicentral distances of 10--90^circ, and magnitudes 3 leq M_w leq 7. To disentangle the effects of context length and prediction horizon, we define three evaluation configurations using a distance-normalized context ratio and fixed prediction horizons of 120 and 240\,s. Across all configurations, the model achieves median normalized cross correlation above 0.93. Analysis of representative forecasts shows that successful predictions preserve both phase coherence and spectral energy distribution. Where failure cases arise, this is primarily due to gradual phase drift during autoregressive rollout rather than unphysical signal generation. These results demonstrate that transformer-based sequence models can learn stable dynamical continuation of seismic wavefields, highlighting the potential of foundation-model approaches for physics-driven time-series forecasting. There are potential applications of this methodology in seismic warning and hazard mitigation, particularly for next-generation gravitational-wave observatories, such as the Einstein Telescope.

  • 5 authors
·
May 31

Automating High Quality RT Planning at Scale

Radiotherapy (RT) planning is complex, subjective, and time-intensive. Advances in artificial intelligence (AI) promise to improve its precision, efficiency, and consistency, but progress is often limited by the scarcity of large, standardized datasets. To address this, we introduce the Automated Iterative RT Planning (AIRTP) system, a scalable solution for generating high-quality treatment plans. This scalable solution is designed to generate substantial volumes of consistently high-quality treatment plans, overcoming a key obstacle in the advancement of AI-driven RT planning. Our AIRTP pipeline adheres to clinical guidelines and automates essential steps, including organ-at-risk (OAR) contouring, helper structure creation, beam setup, optimization, and plan quality improvement, using AI integrated with RT planning software like Eclipse of Varian. Furthermore, a novel approach for determining optimization parameters to reproduce 3D dose distributions, i.e. a method to convert dose predictions to deliverable treatment plans constrained by machine limitations. A comparative analysis of plan quality reveals that our automated pipeline produces treatment plans of quality comparable to those generated manually, which traditionally require several hours of labor per plan. Committed to public research, the first data release of our AIRTP pipeline includes nine cohorts covering head-and-neck and lung cancer sites to support an AAPM 2025 challenge. This data set features more than 10 times the number of plans compared to the largest existing well-curated public data set to our best knowledge. Repo:{https://github.com/RiqiangGao/GDP-HMM_AAPMChallenge}

  • 13 authors
·
Jan 20, 2025

Efficient Response Generation Method Selection for Fine-Tuning Large Language Models

The training data for fine-tuning large language models (LLMs) is typically structured as input-output pairs. However, for many tasks, there can be multiple equally valid output variations for the same input. Recent studies have observed that the choice of output variation used in training can affect the model's performance. This raises an important question: how can we generate the most effective output from the many possible response generation strategy options? Rather than relying on the traditional but resource-intensive train-and-evaluate approach, this paper proposes a scalable, approximate method for estimating the quality of a small subset of generated training data derived from the same input. We then evaluate how well this small subset of generated output fits the target model we are trying to train. We present a large-scale benchmark covering diverse reasoning-based datasets to support our study. The central idea is that a good output should closely resemble the output generated by the target LLM. We formalize this 'closeness' as the expected alignment score between a candidate output and the output sampled from the target LLM. We connect this measurement to the perplexity metric used in previous literature and demonstrate that leveraging an alignment-based metric can provide better predictions of model performance. Using this strategy, we can evaluate a small subset of the generated output from each response generation strategy option, then select the most effective strategy. We show that an LLM trained on data generated by the selected strategy could lead to a significant performance gain in many cases.

  • 3 authors
·
Feb 17, 2025

The Objective Is the Bottleneck: Latent World Models Encode What Their Planners Cannot Use

Latent world models are judged by how well they predict, so when planning fails at long horizons the natural reading is that the predictor degrades. On a reproduction of LeWorldModel on TwoRoom we show the binding constraint is the planner's objective instead. The predictor is not the limit: its imagined state seventy-five environment steps ahead is still only 0.189 as wrong as assuming the world froze, while the planner never imagines beyond twenty-five. The objective is. Cross-entropy-method planning minimises squared latent distance, which tracks true distance at r = 0.426, saturates by about eighty arena units and decreases beyond a hundred and twenty, so moving away from the goal can lower the cost. The information is present throughout: a ridge probe recovers position from the frozen embedding at R^2 0.9922. The pathology is the method's, not one reimplementation's. It is present in the authors' released weights, and across four checkpoints long-horizon success rank-orders exactly with metric quality and inversely with prediction accuracy. Replacing only the objective, with nothing retrained and no GPU, lifts goals reached at offset 100 from 26.0% to 98.0%, equals the 98.0% at offset 25, and reaches 92.0% under a third of the budget: planning stops depending on the horizon. The best cost is not the most accurate. A head learned from frame separation alone predicts spatial distance worse than a position probe (r = 0.819 against 0.9897) yet plans better, charging 24% more to cross the environment's dividing wall where squared latent distance charges 4% less. It has learned reachability, not proximity.

  • 1 authors
·
Aug 12

Investigating the Benefits of Projection Head for Representation Learning

An effective technique for obtaining high-quality representations is adding a projection head on top of the encoder during training, then discarding it and using the pre-projection representations. Despite its proven practical effectiveness, the reason behind the success of this technique is poorly understood. The pre-projection representations are not directly optimized by the loss function, raising the question: what makes them better? In this work, we provide a rigorous theoretical answer to this question. We start by examining linear models trained with self-supervised contrastive loss. We reveal that the implicit bias of training algorithms leads to layer-wise progressive feature weighting, where features become increasingly unequal as we go deeper into the layers. Consequently, lower layers tend to have more normalized and less specialized representations. We theoretically characterize scenarios where such representations are more beneficial, highlighting the intricate interplay between data augmentation and input features. Additionally, we demonstrate that introducing non-linearity into the network allows lower layers to learn features that are completely absent in higher layers. Finally, we show how this mechanism improves the robustness in supervised contrastive learning and supervised learning. We empirically validate our results through various experiments on CIFAR-10/100, UrbanCars and shifted versions of ImageNet. We also introduce a potential alternative to projection head, which offers a more interpretable and controllable design.

  • 5 authors
·
Mar 17, 2024

ProjectedEx: Enhancing Generation in Explainable AI for Prostate Cancer

Prostate cancer, a growing global health concern, necessitates precise diagnostic tools, with Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) offering high-resolution soft tissue imaging that significantly enhances diagnostic accuracy. Recent advancements in explainable AI and representation learning have significantly improved prostate cancer diagnosis by enabling automated and precise lesion classification. However, existing explainable AI methods, particularly those based on frameworks like generative adversarial networks (GANs), are predominantly developed for natural image generation, and their application to medical imaging often leads to suboptimal performance due to the unique characteristics and complexity of medical image. To address these challenges, our paper introduces three key contributions. First, we propose ProjectedEx, a generative framework that provides interpretable, multi-attribute explanations, effectively linking medical image features to classifier decisions. Second, we enhance the encoder module by incorporating feature pyramids, which enables multiscale feedback to refine the latent space and improves the quality of generated explanations. Additionally, we conduct comprehensive experiments on both the generator and classifier, demonstrating the clinical relevance and effectiveness of ProjectedEx in enhancing interpretability and supporting the adoption of AI in medical settings. Code will be released at https://github.com/Richardqiyi/ProjectedEx

  • 14 authors
·
Jan 2, 2025

Look Before you Leap: Estimating LLM Benchmark Scores from Descriptions

Progress in large language models is constrained by an evaluation bottleneck: build a benchmark, evaluate models and settings, then iterate. We therefore ask a simple question: can we forecast outcomes before running any experiments? We study text-only performance forecasting: estimating a model's score from a redacted task description and intended configuration, with no access to dataset instances. To support systematic study, we curate PRECOG, a corpus of redacted description-performance pairs spanning diverse tasks, domains, and metrics. Experiments show the task is challenging but feasible: models equipped with a retrieval module that excludes source papers achieve moderate prediction performance with well-calibrated uncertainty, reaching mean absolute error as low as 8.7 on the Accuracy subset at high-confidence thresholds. Our analysis indicates that stronger reasoning models engage in diverse, iterative querying, whereas current open-source models lag and often skip retrieval or gather evidence with limited diversity. We further test a zero-leakage setting, forecasting on newly released datasets or experiments before their papers are indexed, where GPT-5 with built-in web search still attains nontrivial prediction accuracy. Overall, our corpus and analyses offer an initial step toward open-ended anticipatory evaluation, supporting difficulty estimation and smarter experiment prioritization.

  • 4 authors
·
Sep 24, 2025

QuantSightBench: Evaluating LLM Quantitative Forecasting with Prediction Intervals

Forecasting has become a natural benchmark for reasoning under uncertainty. Yet existing evaluations of large language models remain limited to judgmental tasks in simple formats, such as binary or multiple-choice questions. In practice, however, forecasting spans a far broader scope. Across domains such as economics, public health, and social demographics, decisions hinge on numerical estimates over continuous quantities, a capability that current benchmarks do not capture. Evaluating such estimates requires a format that makes uncertainty explicit and testable. We propose prediction intervals as a natural and rigorous interface for this purpose. They demand scale awareness, internal consistency across confidence levels, and calibration over a continuum of outcomes, making them a more suitable evaluation format than point estimates for numerical forecasting. To assess this capability, we introduce a new benchmark QuantSightBench, and evaluate frontier models under multiple settings, assessing both empirical coverage and interval sharpness. Our results show that none of the 11 evaluated frontier and open-weight models achieves the 90\% coverage target, with the top performers Gemini 3.1 Pro (79.1\%), Grok 4 (76.4\%), and GPT-5.4 (75.3\%) all falling at least 10 percentage points short. Calibration degrades sharply at extreme magnitudes, revealing systematic overconfidence across all evaluated models.

  • 2 authors
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Apr 16

Exposing the Illusion of Fairness: Auditing Vulnerabilities to Distributional Manipulation Attacks

The rapid deployment of AI systems in high-stakes domains, including those classified as high-risk under the The EU AI Act (Regulation (EU) 2024/1689), has intensified the need for reliable compliance auditing. For binary classifiers, regulatory risk assessment often relies on global fairness metrics such as the Disparate Impact ratio, widely used to evaluate potential discrimination. In typical auditing settings, the auditee provides a subset of its dataset to an auditor, while a supervisory authority may verify whether this subset is representative of the full underlying distribution. In this work, we investigate to what extent a malicious auditee can construct a fairness-compliant yet representative-looking sample from a non-compliant original distribution, thereby creating an illusion of fairness. We formalize this problem as a constrained distributional projection task and introduce mathematically grounded manipulation strategies based on entropic and optimal transport projections. These constructions characterize the minimal distributional shift required to satisfy fairness constraints. To counter such attacks, we formalize representativeness through distributional distance based statistical tests and systematically evaluate their ability to detect manipulated samples. Our analysis highlights the conditions under which fairness manipulation can remain statistically undetected and provides practical guidelines for strengthening supervisory verification. We validate our theoretical findings through experiments on standard tabular datasets for bias detection. Code is publicly available at https://github.com/ValentinLafargue/Inspection.

Geometric Ceilings on Time-Frequency Masking for Single-Channel Separation

Most single-channel separators estimate a source by applying a real gain to the mixture in each time-frequency bin. The optimum of that format, which the oracle masks used as bounds do not attain, is the orthogonal projection of the source onto the line spanned by the mixture, its residual set by the angle between them. Locating an estimator reduces to the block structure of a real-linear operator on stacked spectra, giving a chain of four nested classes whose three larger terms match three assumptions on the prior: zero means, circularity and absence of inter-frequency coupling. Held fixed the chain is a cascade of four orthogonal projections; refitted per frame it collapses onto its first term, attributing the whole residual to one missing real parameter per bin, the phase. When the phase posterior is symmetric about the mixture direction, the minimum mean-square estimate falls back onto the line, with gain the posterior mean of the oracle gain and excess error its variance. On MUSDB18 a posterior mean under a non-circular Gaussian-mixture prior leaves the class yet stays 11.44 dB under the per-frame ceiling, which four times as many components and 7.5x the data do not close; a closed-form gate attributes some 70% of it, in decibels, to the predicted variance. The widest fixed class stays 6.70 dB under the same ceiling. Leaving the class and minimising squared error are conflicting requests: the barrier lies in the criterion rather than in the prior.

  • 1 authors
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Sep 2

Real-Time Prediction of Gas Flow Dynamics in Diesel Engines using a Deep Neural Operator Framework

We develop a data-driven deep neural operator framework to approximate multiple output states for a diesel engine and generate real-time predictions with reasonable accuracy. As emission norms become more stringent, the need for fast and accurate models that enable analysis of system behavior have become an essential requirement for system development. The fast transient processes involved in the operation of a combustion engine make it difficult to develop accurate physics-based models for such systems. As an alternative to physics based models, we develop an operator-based regression model (DeepONet) to learn the relevant output states for a mean-value gas flow engine model using the engine operating conditions as input variables. We have adopted a mean-value model as a benchmark for comparison, simulated using Simulink. The developed approach necessitates using the initial conditions of the output states to predict the accurate sequence over the temporal domain. To this end, a sequence-to-sequence approach is embedded into the proposed framework. The accuracy of the model is evaluated by comparing the prediction output to ground truth generated from Simulink model. The maximum mathcal L_2 relative error observed was approximately 6.5%. The sensitivity of the DeepONet model is evaluated under simulated noise conditions and the model shows relatively low sensitivity to noise. The uncertainty in model prediction is further assessed by using a mean ensemble approach. The worst-case error at the (mu + 2sigma) boundary was found to be 12%. The proposed framework provides the ability to predict output states in real-time and enables data-driven learning of complex input-output operator mapping. As a result, this model can be applied during initial development stages, where accurate models may not be available.

  • 4 authors
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Apr 2, 2023

Pixal3D: Pixel-Aligned 3D Generation from Images

Recent advances in 3D generative models have rapidly improved image-to-3D synthesis quality, enabling higher-resolution geometry and more realistic appearance. Yet fidelity, which measures pixel-level faithfulness of the generated 3D asset to the input image, still remains a central bottleneck. We argue this stems from an implicit 2D-3D correspondence issue: most 3D-native generators synthesize shape in canonical space and inject image cues via attention, leaving pixel-to-3D associations ambiguous. To tackle this issue, we draw inspiration from 3D reconstruction and propose Pixal3D, a pixel-aligned 3D generation paradigm for high-fidelity 3D asset creation from images. Instead of generating in a canonical pose, Pixal3D directly generates 3D in a pixel-aligned way, consistent with the input view. To enable this, we introduce a pixel back-projection conditioning scheme that explicitly lifts multi-scale image features into a 3D feature volume, establishing direct pixel-to-3D correspondence without ambiguity. We show that Pixal3D is not only scalable and capable of producing high-quality 3D assets, but also substantially improves fidelity, approaching the fidelity level of reconstruction. Furthermore, Pixal3D naturally extends to multi-view generation by aggregating back-projected feature volumes across views. Finally, we show pixel-aligned generation benefits scene synthesis, and present a modular pipeline that produces high-fidelity, object-separated 3D scenes from images. Pixal3D for the first time demonstrates 3D-native pixel-aligned generation at scale, and provides a new inspiring way towards high-fidelity 3D generation of object or scene from single or multi-view images. Project page: https://ldyang694.github.io/projects/pixal3d/

Thinking in Different Spaces: Domain-Specific Latent Geometry Survives Cross-Architecture Translation

We investigate whether independently trained language models converge to geometrically compatible latent representations, and whether this compatibility can be exploited to correct model behavior at inference time without any weight updates. We learn a linear projection matrix that maps activation vectors from a large teacher model into the coordinate system of a smaller student model, then intervene on the student's residual stream during generation by substituting its internal state with the translated teacher representation. Across a fully crossed experimental matrix of 20 heterogeneous teacher-student pairings spanning mixture-of-experts, dense, code-specialized, and synthetically trained architectures, the Ridge projection consistently achieves R^2 = 0.50 on verbal reasoning and R^2 = 0.40 on mathematical reasoning, collapsing to R^2 = -0.22 under permutation control and R^2 = 0.01 under L_1 regularization. Behavioral correction rates range from 14.0% to 50.0% on TruthfulQA (mean 25.2%) and from 8.5% to 43.3% on GSM8K arithmetic reasoning (mean 25.5%), demonstrating that the method generalizes across fundamentally different reasoning domains. We report a near-zero correlation between geometric alignment quality and behavioral correction rate (r = -0.07), revealing a dissociation between representation space fidelity and output space impact. Intervention strength is architecture-specific: student models exhibit characteristic sensitivity profiles that invert across domains, with the most steerable verbal student becoming the least steerable mathematical student. Finally, a double dissociation experiment conducted across all 20 model pairings confirms without exception that projection matrices collapse catastrophically when transferred across reasoning domains (mean R^2 = -3.83 in both transfer directions), establishing domain-specific subspace geometry as a universal property of LMs.

  • 3 authors
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Mar 19

DiagrammerGPT: Generating Open-Domain, Open-Platform Diagrams via LLM Planning

Text-to-image (T2I) generation has seen significant growth over the past few years. Despite this, there has been little work on generating diagrams with T2I models. A diagram is a symbolic/schematic representation that explains information using structurally rich and spatially complex visualizations (e.g., a dense combination of related objects, text labels, directional arrows, connection lines, etc.). Existing state-of-the-art T2I models often fail at diagram generation because they lack fine-grained object layout control when many objects are densely connected via complex relations such as arrows/lines and also often fail to render comprehensible text labels. To address this gap, we present DiagrammerGPT, a novel two-stage text-to-diagram generation framework that leverages the layout guidance capabilities of LLMs (e.g., GPT-4) to generate more accurate open-domain, open-platform diagrams. In the first stage, we use LLMs to generate and iteratively refine 'diagram plans' (in a planner-auditor feedback loop) which describe all the entities (objects and text labels), their relationships (arrows or lines), and their bounding box layouts. In the second stage, we use a diagram generator, DiagramGLIGEN, and a text label rendering module to generate diagrams following the diagram plans. To benchmark the text-to-diagram generation task, we introduce AI2D-Caption, a densely annotated diagram dataset built on top of the AI2D dataset. We show quantitatively and qualitatively that our DiagrammerGPT framework produces more accurate diagrams, outperforming existing T2I models. We also provide comprehensive analysis including open-domain diagram generation, vector graphic diagram generation in different platforms, human-in-the-loop diagram plan editing, and multimodal planner/auditor LLMs (e.g., GPT-4Vision). We hope our work can inspire further research on diagram generation via T2I models and LLMs.

  • 4 authors
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Oct 18, 2023

The Evaluation Protocol Determines the Result: An Independent Reproduction of LeWorldModel on TwoRoom

LeWorldModel trains a latent world model with a prediction loss and a single anti-collapse regulariser, and reports approximately 87% of goals reached on TwoRoom, its simplest diagnostic environment. We reproduce that result by independent reimplementation on roughly $25 of rented compute, with all evaluation on one laptop CPU. We reach 94.0% at the repository's evaluation goal offset, against 84.0% for the authors' own released checkpoint measured under our protocol on identical episodes, and we reproduce the reported representation result directly (position probe Pearson r = 0.9988 against a reported 0.996). Reaching that point required four conventions that determine the outcome and appear in no released configuration file: dense action gathering across a frameskip block, a programmatically-set action-encoder width, ImageNet pixel normalisation, and action z-scoring. A reproducer following the released configurations alone obtains a model whose predictor cannot converge. The evaluation protocol is itself contested by the released material. The paper's appendix and the repository's configuration specify different goal offsets and step budgets; on the authors' own weights these yield 14.0% and 84.0%, and only the configuration's values reproduce the reported figure. On fifty identical episodes, changing nothing but how the goal is constructed moves that checkpoint from 84.0% to 8.0%. Two findings generalise. One-step prediction accuracy does not predict long-horizon planning success: across three checkpoints spanning a sevenfold range in prediction error, including the authors' own, it orders short-horizon success monotonically and fails to order long-horizon success at all. And a batch normalisation layer inflated our reported validation loss by up to a factor of 300, concealing a training loss that was flat throughout.

  • 1 authors
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Aug 9

Trace is the New AutoDiff -- Unlocking Efficient Optimization of Computational Workflows

We study a class of optimization problems motivated by automating the design and update of AI systems like coding assistants, robots, and copilots. We propose an end-to-end optimization framework, Trace, which treats the computational workflow of an AI system as a graph akin to neural networks, based on a generalization of back-propagation. Optimization of computational workflows often involves rich feedback (e.g. console output or user's responses), heterogeneous parameters (e.g. prompts, hyper-parameters, codes), and intricate objectives (beyond maximizing a score). Moreover, its computation graph can change dynamically with the inputs and parameters. We frame a new mathematical setup of iterative optimization, Optimization with Trace Oracle (OPTO), to capture and abstract these properties so as to design optimizers that work across many domains. In OPTO, an optimizer receives an execution trace along with feedback on the computed output and updates parameters iteratively. Trace is the tool to implement OPTO in practice. Trace has a Python interface that efficiently converts a computational workflow into an OPTO instance using a PyTorch-like interface. Using Trace, we develop a general-purpose LLM-based optimizer called OptoPrime that can effectively solve OPTO problems. In empirical studies, we find that OptoPrime is capable of first-order numerical optimization, prompt optimization, hyper-parameter tuning, robot controller design, code debugging, etc., and is often competitive with specialized optimizers for each domain. We believe that Trace, OptoPrime and the OPTO framework will enable the next generation of interactive agents that automatically adapt using various kinds of feedback. Website: https://microsoft.github.io/Trace

  • 3 authors
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Jun 23, 2024 1

When Correct Isn't Usable: Improving Structured Output Reliability in Small Language Models

Deployed language models must produce outputs that are both correct and format-compliant. We study this structured-output reliability gap using two mathematical benchmarks -- GSM8K and MATH -- as a controlled testbed: ground truth is unambiguous and the output contract is strict (JSON with required fields). We evaluate three 7-9B models under five prompting strategies and report output accuracy -- the joint event of mathematical correctness and valid JSON structure -- as the primary metric. A systematic format failure emerges: NAIVE prompting (no system prompt) achieves up to 85% task accuracy on GSM8K but 0% output accuracy across all models and datasets. REFERENCE prompting (a minimal hand-written JSON format prompt) fares little better, yielding 0% output accuracy for two of four models tested. Constrained decoding enforces syntactic validity but incurs 3.6x-8.2x latency overhead and in several settings degrades task performance substantially. To overcome this limitation, we developed AloLab, an iterative system-prompt optimizer (meta-agent: Claude Sonnet 4.5) requiring only black-box API access to the target model; it reaches 84-87% output accuracy on GSM8K and 34-40% on MATH across five independent runs per model, with 29/30 paired McNemar comparisons against the best static prompt significant at p < 0.05, at near-NAIVE inference latency and without model fine-tuning. The same format failure extends to GPT-4o (OpenAI, 2024), a proprietary closed-source model: REFERENCE achieves 0% output accuracy due to systematic markdown-fence wrapping, while AloLab reaches 95.2% [94.8, 95.6]. An ablation replacing the Sonnet 4.5 meta-agent with Claude 3 Haiku reduces mean output accuracy to 61.0% and increases run-to-run standard deviation from <1 pp to 21.8 pp, confirming that meta-agent capability is a primary driver of optimization quality.

  • 4 authors
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May 3

Verified Uncertainty Calibration

Applications such as weather forecasting and personalized medicine demand models that output calibrated probability estimates---those representative of the true likelihood of a prediction. Most models are not calibrated out of the box but are recalibrated by post-processing model outputs. We find in this work that popular recalibration methods like Platt scaling and temperature scaling are (i) less calibrated than reported, and (ii) current techniques cannot estimate how miscalibrated they are. An alternative method, histogram binning, has measurable calibration error but is sample inefficient---it requires O(B/ε^2) samples, compared to O(1/ε^2) for scaling methods, where B is the number of distinct probabilities the model can output. To get the best of both worlds, we introduce the scaling-binning calibrator, which first fits a parametric function to reduce variance and then bins the function values to actually ensure calibration. This requires only O(1/ε^2 + B) samples. Next, we show that we can estimate a model's calibration error more accurately using an estimator from the meteorological community---or equivalently measure its calibration error with fewer samples (O(B) instead of O(B)). We validate our approach with multiclass calibration experiments on CIFAR-10 and ImageNet, where we obtain a 35% lower calibration error than histogram binning and, unlike scaling methods, guarantees on true calibration. In these experiments, we also estimate the calibration error and ECE more accurately than the commonly used plugin estimators. We implement all these methods in a Python library: https://pypi.org/project/uncertainty-calibration

  • 3 authors
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Sep 23, 2019

UnpredictaBench: A Benchmark for Evaluating Distributional Randomness in LLMs

We introduce UnpredictaBench, an evaluation that tests the ability of large language models (LLMs) to capture true underlying distributions. As LLMs are increasingly used as substitutes for other entities (e.g., for humans in economic simulations), the tendency of many models to collapse towards a single plausible answer means a failure to capture the unpredictability of real systems. Recent work on improving output diversity is insufficient for this setting: simulation requires samples that are calibrated to a target distribution, not merely varied outputs. UnpredictaBench isolates a simplified but fundamental version of this problem: sampling outcomes from individual target distributions, including canonical statistical distributions, distributions induced by stochastic programs, and natural-language scenarios that describe random processes. We introduce 448 such problems together with KS@N, a general-purpose evaluation metric that quantifies how well a model outputs approximate black-box target distributions via the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistical test. This is the rate at which we fail to reject model samples of size N against ground-truth samples, with larger N indicating greater difficulty. Tested across open and proprietary models, we find a large spread in distributional capabilities. For instance, when models generate samples of size 100 (KS@100, our standard metric), scores range from near 0 to over 20%. No model is able to achieve over 40% at KS@100, showing significant headroom in distributional sampling as a capability. Although adding reasoning can somewhat increase scores, we find no immediate solution for this issue. UnpredictaBench shows that even simple distributional simulation remains challenging, making it a necessary first step toward using LLMs as stand-ins for complex systems.

Faithful, Enriched, and Precise: Benchmarking Natural-Science Illustration Generation by T2I models

Scientific illustrations are essential tools for communicating research findings, especially in natural science, where they visualize complex concepts and processes. As Text-to-Image (T2I) models become increasingly capable, researchers have started to use them for scientific illustration generation. However, existing benchmarks often assess outputs at a holistic level, overlooking fine-grained elements, while scientific reasoning ability and output conciseness remain under-quantified. We introduce FEPBench, a benchmark built from carefully selected high-quality scientific illustrations across multiple disciplines and layout types. With the assistance of multimodal large language models (MLLMs) and human experts, we provide fine-grained atom set annotations and systematically evaluate T2I models along three dimensions: instruction faithfulness, reasoning enrichment, and semantic precision. Our evaluation further decomposes model performance across visual, textual, relation, and layout elements. Results show that even state-of-the-art (SOTA) closed-source models, such as GPT Image 2 and Nano Banana Pro, still suffer from text-rendering bottlenecks, limited reasoning enrichment, and difficulty balancing generation richness with precision. These findings provide practical guidance for improving and deploying T2I models in scientific illustration generation. Benchmark data, atom set annotations, and evaluation code will be released by us.

  • 12 authors
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Jun 4