Daily Papers

Recently, channel-independent methods have achieved state-of-the-art performance in multivariate time series (MTS) forecasting. Despite reducing overfitting risks, these methods miss potential opportunities in utilizing channel dependence for accurate predictions. We argue that there exist locally stationary lead-lag relationships between variates, i.e., some lagged variates may follow the leading indicators within a short time period. Exploiting such channel dependence is beneficial since leading indicators offer advance information that can be used to reduce the forecasting difficulty of the lagged variates. In this paper, we propose a new method named LIFT that first efficiently estimates leading indicators and their leading steps at each time step and then judiciously allows the lagged variates to utilize the advance information from leading indicators. LIFT plays as a plugin that can be seamlessly collaborated with arbitrary time series forecasting methods. Extensive experiments on six real-world datasets demonstrate that LIFT improves the state-of-the-art methods by 5.5% in average forecasting performance. Our code is available at https://github.com/SJTU-Quant/LIFT.

Backtests of cryptocurrency perpetual futures are fragile when they ignore microstructure frictions and reuse evaluation windows during parameter search. We study four liquid perpetuals (BTC/USDT, ETH/USDT, SOL/USDT, AVAX/USDT) and quantify how execution delay, funding, fees, and slippage can inflate reported performance. We introduce AutoQuant, an execution-centric, alpha-agnostic framework for auditable strategy configuration selection. AutoQuant encodes strict T+1 execution semantics and no-look-ahead funding alignment, runs Bayesian optimization under realistic costs, and applies a two-stage double-screening protocol across held-out rolling windows and a cost-sensitivity grid. We show that fee-only and zero-cost backtests can materially overestimate annualized returns relative to a fully costed configuration, and that double screening tends to reduce drawdowns under the same strict semantics even when returns are not higher. A CSCV/PBO diagnostic indicates substantial residual overfitting risk, motivating AutoQuant as validation and governance infrastructure rather than a claim of persistent alpha. Returns are reported for small-account simulations with linear trading costs and without market impact or capacity modeling.

Large language models (LLMs) excel in natural language processing but adapting these LLMs to speech processing tasks efficiently is not straightforward. Direct task-specific fine-tuning is limited by overfitting risks, data requirements, and computational costs. To address these challenges, we propose a scalable, two-stage training approach: (1) A task-independent speech pretraining stage using contrastive learning to align text and speech representations over all layers, followed by (2) a task-specific fine-tuning stage requiring minimal data. This approach outperforms traditional ASR pretraining and enables the model to surpass models specialized on speech translation and question answering while being trained on only 10% of the task-specific data.

Rectified activation units (rectifiers) are essential for state-of-the-art neural networks. In this work, we study rectifier neural networks for image classification from two aspects. First, we propose a Parametric Rectified Linear Unit (PReLU) that generalizes the traditional rectified unit. PReLU improves model fitting with nearly zero extra computational cost and little overfitting risk. Second, we derive a robust initialization method that particularly considers the rectifier nonlinearities. This method enables us to train extremely deep rectified models directly from scratch and to investigate deeper or wider network architectures. Based on our PReLU networks (PReLU-nets), we achieve 4.94% top-5 test error on the ImageNet 2012 classification dataset. This is a 26% relative improvement over the ILSVRC 2014 winner (GoogLeNet, 6.66%). To our knowledge, our result is the first to surpass human-level performance (5.1%, Russakovsky et al.) on this visual recognition challenge.

Synthesizing coherent soundtracks for long-form videos remains a formidable challenge, currently stalled by three critical impediments: computational scalability, temporal coherence, and, most critically, a pervasive semantic blindness to evolving narrative logic. To bridge these gaps, we propose NarraScore, a hierarchical framework predicated on the core insight that emotion serves as a high-density compression of narrative logic. Uniquely, we repurpose frozen Vision-Language Models (VLMs) as continuous affective sensors, distilling high-dimensional visual streams into dense, narrative-aware Valence-Arousal trajectories. Mechanistically, NarraScore employs a Dual-Branch Injection strategy to reconcile global structure with local dynamism: a Global Semantic Anchor ensures stylistic stability, while a surgical Token-Level Affective Adapter modulates local tension via direct element-wise residual injection. This minimalist design bypasses the bottlenecks of dense attention and architectural cloning, effectively mitigating the overfitting risks associated with data scarcity. Experiments demonstrate that NarraScore achieves state-of-the-art consistency and narrative alignment with negligible computational overhead, establishing a fully autonomous paradigm for long-video soundtrack generation.

Encoder-decoder Large Language Models (LLMs), such as BERT and RoBERTa, require that all categories in an annotation task be sufficiently represented in the training data for optimal performance. However, it is often difficult to find sufficient examples for all categories in a task when building a high-quality training set. In this article, I describe this problem and propose a solution, the synthetic imputation approach. Leveraging a generative LLM (GPT-4o), this approach generates synthetic texts based on careful prompting and five original examples drawn randomly with replacement from the sample. This approach ensures that new synthetic texts are sufficiently different from the original texts to reduce overfitting, but retain the underlying substantive meaning of the examples to maximize out-of-sample performance. With 75 original examples or more, synthetic imputation's performance is on par with a full sample of original texts, and overfitting remains low, predictable and correctable with 50 original samples. The synthetic imputation approach provides a novel role for generative LLMs in research and allows applied researchers to balance their datasets for best performance.

Cross-Domain Few-Shot Segmentation (CD-FSS) poses the challenge of segmenting novel categories from a distinct domain using only limited exemplars. In this paper, we undertake a comprehensive study of CD-FSS and uncover two crucial insights: (i) the necessity of a fine-tuning stage to effectively transfer the learned meta-knowledge across domains, and (ii) the overfitting risk during the na\"ive fine-tuning due to the scarcity of novel category examples. With these insights, we propose a novel cross-domain fine-tuning strategy that addresses the challenging CD-FSS tasks. We first design Bi-directional Few-shot Prediction (BFP), which establishes support-query correspondence in a bi-directional manner, crafting augmented supervision to reduce the overfitting risk. Then we further extend BFP into Iterative Few-shot Adaptor (IFA), which is a recursive framework to capture the support-query correspondence iteratively, targeting maximal exploitation of supervisory signals from the sparse novel category samples. Extensive empirical evaluations show that our method significantly outperforms the state-of-the-arts (+7.8\%), which verifies that IFA tackles the cross-domain challenges and mitigates the overfitting simultaneously. The code is available at: https://github.com/niejiahao1998/IFA.

Existing multi-view image generation methods often make invasive modifications to pre-trained text-to-image (T2I) models and require full fine-tuning, leading to (1) high computational costs, especially with large base models and high-resolution images, and (2) degradation in image quality due to optimization difficulties and scarce high-quality 3D data. In this paper, we propose the first adapter-based solution for multi-view image generation, and introduce MV-Adapter, a versatile plug-and-play adapter that enhances T2I models and their derivatives without altering the original network structure or feature space. By updating fewer parameters, MV-Adapter enables efficient training and preserves the prior knowledge embedded in pre-trained models, mitigating overfitting risks. To efficiently model the 3D geometric knowledge within the adapter, we introduce innovative designs that include duplicated self-attention layers and parallel attention architecture, enabling the adapter to inherit the powerful priors of the pre-trained models to model the novel 3D knowledge. Moreover, we present a unified condition encoder that seamlessly integrates camera parameters and geometric information, facilitating applications such as text- and image-based 3D generation and texturing. MV-Adapter achieves multi-view generation at 768 resolution on Stable Diffusion XL (SDXL), and demonstrates adaptability and versatility. It can also be extended to arbitrary view generation, enabling broader applications. We demonstrate that MV-Adapter sets a new quality standard for multi-view image generation, and opens up new possibilities due to its efficiency, adaptability and versatility.

Large Language Models (LLMs), with billions of parameters, present significant challenges for full finetuning due to the high computational demands, memory requirements, and impracticality of many real-world applications. When faced with limited computational resources or small datasets, updating all model parameters can often result in overfitting. To address this, lightweight finetuning techniques have been proposed, like learning low-rank adapter layers. These methods aim to train only a few additional parameters combined with the base model, which remains frozen, reducing resource usage and mitigating overfitting risks. In this work, we propose an adaptor model based on stochastic gates that simultaneously sparsify the frozen base model with task-specific adaptation. Our method comes with a small number of trainable parameters and allows us to speed up the base model inference with competitive accuracy. We evaluate it in additional variants by equipping it with additional low-rank parameters and comparing it to several recent baselines. Our results show that the proposed method improves the finetuned model accuracy comparatively to the several baselines and allows the removal of up to 20-40\% without significant accuracy loss.

Prompt learning has surfaced as an effective approach to enhance the performance of Vision-Language Models (VLMs) like CLIP when applied to downstream tasks. However, current learnable prompt tokens are primarily used for the single phase of adapting to tasks (i.e., adapting prompt), easily leading to overfitting risks. In this work, we propose a novel Cascade Prompt Learning CasPL framework to enable prompt learning to serve both generic and specific expertise (i.e., boosting and adapting prompt) simultaneously. Specifically, CasPL is a new learning paradigm comprising two distinct phases of learnable prompts: the first boosting prompt is crafted to extract domain-general knowledge from a senior larger CLIP teacher model by aligning their predicted logits using extensive unlabeled domain images. The second adapting prompt is then cascaded with the frozen first set to fine-tune the downstream tasks, following the approaches employed in prior research. In this manner, CasPL can effectively capture both domain-general and task-specific representations into explicitly different gradual groups of prompts, thus potentially alleviating overfitting issues in the target domain. It's worth noting that CasPL serves as a plug-and-play module that can seamlessly integrate into any existing prompt learning approach. CasPL achieves a significantly better balance between performance and inference speed, which is especially beneficial for deploying smaller VLM models in resource-constrained environments. Compared to the previous state-of-the-art method PromptSRC, CasPL shows an average improvement of 1.85% for base classes, 3.44% for novel classes, and 2.72% for the harmonic mean over 11 image classification datasets. Code is publicly available at: https://github.com/megvii-research/CasPL.

The prevailing paradigm for enhancing the reasoning abilities of LLMs revolves around post-training on high-quality, reasoning-intensive data. While emerging literature suggests that reasoning data is increasingly incorporated also during the mid-training stage-a practice that is relatively more proprietary and less openly characterized-the role of such data in pretraining remains unclear. In particular, due to the opaqueness of pretraining corpora in most frontier models, the effect of reasoning data introduced at different phases of pre- and/or post-training is relatively less reported in the scientific literature. This raises several important questions: Is adding reasoning data earlier during pretraining any better than introducing it during post-training? Could earlier inclusion risk overfitting and harm generalization, or instead establish durable foundations that later fine-tuning cannot recover? We conduct the first systematic study of how reasoning data-varying in scale, diversity, and quality-affects LLM performance when introduced at different stages of training. We find that front-loading reasoning data into pretraining is critical (19% avg gain), establishing foundational capabilities that cannot be fully replicated by later-stage SFT, even with more data. We uncover an asymmetric principle for optimal data allocation: pretraining benefits most from broad diversity in reasoning patterns (11% avg gain), while SFT is more sensitive to data quality (15% avg gain). We show that high-quality pretraining data has latent effects, activated only after SFT, and that naively scaling SFT data can be detrimental, washing away the benefits of early reasoning injection. Our results challenge the conventional separation of language modeling and reasoning, providing a principled guide for strategically allocating data across the entire training pipeline to build more capable models.

Natural Language Processing (NLP) models risk overfitting to specific terms in the training data, thereby reducing their performance, fairness, and generalizability. E.g., neural hate speech detection models are strongly influenced by identity terms like gay, or women, resulting in false positives, severe unintended bias, and lower performance. Most mitigation techniques use lists of identity terms or samples from the target domain during training. However, this approach requires a-priori knowledge and introduces further bias if important terms are neglected. Instead, we propose a knowledge-free Entropy-based Attention Regularization (EAR) to discourage overfitting to training-specific terms. An additional objective function penalizes tokens with low self-attention entropy. We fine-tune BERT via EAR: the resulting model matches or exceeds state-of-the-art performance for hate speech classification and bias metrics on three benchmark corpora in English and Italian. EAR also reveals overfitting terms, i.e., terms most likely to induce bias, to help identify their effect on the model, task, and predictions.

Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) have demonstrated impressive performance on complex tasks, including logical puzzle games that require deriving solutions satisfying all constraints. However, whether they can flexibly apply appropriate rules to varying conditions, particularly when faced with non-canonical game variants, remains an open question. Existing corpora focus on popular puzzles like 9x9 Sudoku, risking overfitting to canonical formats and memorization of solution patterns, which can mask deficiencies in understanding novel rules or adapting strategies to new variants. To address this, we introduce HardcoreLogic, a challenging benchmark of over 5,000 puzzles across 10 games, designed to test the robustness of LRMs on the "long-tail" of logical games. HardcoreLogic systematically transforms canonical puzzles through three dimensions: Increased Complexity (IC), Uncommon Elements (UE), and Unsolvable Puzzles (UP), reducing reliance on shortcut memorization. Evaluations on a diverse set of LRMs reveal significant performance drops, even for models achieving top scores on existing benchmarks, indicating heavy reliance on memorized stereotypes. While increased complexity is the dominant source of difficulty, models also struggle with subtle rule variations that do not necessarily increase puzzle difficulty. Our systematic error analysis on solvable and unsolvable puzzles further highlights gaps in genuine reasoning. Overall, HardcoreLogic exposes the limitations of current LRMs and establishes a benchmark for advancing high-level logical reasoning.

Real-world model deployments demand strong performance on narrow domains where data is often scarce. Typically, practitioners finetune models to specialize them, but this risks overfitting to the domain and forgetting general knowledge. We study a simple strategy, specialized pretraining (SPT), where a small domain dataset, typically reserved for finetuning, is repeated starting from pretraining as a fraction of the total tokens. Across three specialized domains (ChemPile, MusicPile, and ProofPile), SPT improves domain performance and preserves general capabilities after finetuning compared to standard pretraining. In our experiments, SPT reduces the pretraining tokens needed to reach a given domain performance by up to 1.75x. These gains grow when the target domain is underrepresented in the pretraining corpus: on domains far from web text, a 1B SPT model outperforms a 3B standard pretrained model. Beyond these empirical gains, we derive overfitting scaling laws to guide practitioners in selecting the optimal domain-data repetition for a given pretraining compute budget. Our observations reveal the finetuner's fallacy: while finetuning may appear to be the cheapest path to domain adaptation, introducing specialized domain data during pretraining stretches its utility. SPT yields better specialized domain performance (via reduced overfitting across repeated exposures) and better general domain performance (via reduced forgetting during finetuning), ultimately achieving stronger results with fewer parameters and less total compute when amortized over inference. To get the most out of domain data, incorporate it as early in training as possible.

Time-series forecasting is crucial for numerous real-world applications including weather prediction and financial market modeling. While temporal-domain methods remain prevalent, frequency-domain approaches can effectively capture multi-scale periodic patterns, reduce sequence dependencies, and naturally denoise signals. However, existing approaches typically train model components for all frequencies under a unified training objective, often leading to mismatched learning speeds: high-frequency components converge faster and risk overfitting, while low-frequency components underfit due to insufficient training time. To deal with this challenge, we propose BEAT (Balanced frEquency Adaptive Tuning), a novel framework that dynamically monitors the training status for each frequency and adaptively adjusts their gradient updates. By recognizing convergence, overfitting, or underfitting for each frequency, BEAT dynamically reallocates learning priorities, moderating gradients for rapid learners and increasing those for slower ones, alleviating the tension between competing objectives across frequencies and synchronizing the overall learning process. Extensive experiments on seven real-world datasets demonstrate that BEAT consistently outperforms state-of-the-art approaches.

Equipping large language models with explicit skills has emerged as a promising paradigm for enabling autonomous agents to solve complex tasks. Agent skills can be inherently divided into general skills for broad cognitive transfer and task-specific skills for dynamic execution. However, existing skill-based reinforcement learning (RL) methods typically force a rigid choice between full externalization, which incurs prohibitive context overhead, and full internalization, which risks overfitting and knowledge conflicts. To address this dilemma, we propose Skill0.5, a novel agentic RL framework that explicitly differentiates skill treatments by combining general skill internalization with task-specific skill utilization. Driven by a dynamic, difficulty-aware router, Skill0.5 streams tasks into distinct mastery tiers to apply tailored optimization strategies: it internalizes general skills via privileged distillation to build a cognitive foundation for hard tasks, while using diagnostic probing on easy tasks to penalize shortcuts and enforce specific skill utilization. Experiments on ALFWorld and WebShop demonstrate that Skill0.5 outperforms both memory-based and skill-based RL baselines, yielding performance improvements across both in-distribution and out-of-distribution scenarios.

In this work, we focus on scaling open-vocabulary action detection. Existing approaches for action detection are predominantly limited to closed-set scenarios and rely on complex, parameter-heavy architectures. Extending these models to the open-vocabulary setting poses two key challenges: (1) the lack of large-scale datasets with many action classes for robust training, and (2) parameter-heavy adaptations to a pretrained vision-language contrastive model to convert it for detection, risking overfitting the additional non-pretrained parameters to base action classes. Firstly, we introduce an encoder-only multimodal model for video action detection, reducing the reliance on parameter-heavy additions for video action detection. Secondly, we introduce a simple weakly supervised training strategy to exploit an existing closed-set action detection dataset for pretraining. Finally, we depart from the ill-posed base-to-novel benchmark used by prior works in open-vocabulary action detection and devise a new benchmark to evaluate on existing closed-set action detection datasets without ever using them for training, showing novel results to serve as baselines for future work.

Neural Radiance Fields and 3D Gaussian Splatting have advanced novel view synthesis, yet still rely on dense inputs and often degrade at extrapolated views. Recent approaches leverage generative models, such as diffusion models, to provide additional supervision, but face a trade-off between generalization and fidelity: fine-tuning diffusion models for artifact removal improves fidelity but risks overfitting, while fine-tuning-free methods preserve generalization but often yield lower fidelity. We introduce FreeFix, a fine-tuning-free approach that pushes the boundary of this trade-off by enhancing extrapolated rendering with pretrained image diffusion models. We present an interleaved 2D-3D refinement strategy, showing that image diffusion models can be leveraged for consistent refinement without relying on costly video diffusion models. Furthermore, we take a closer look at the guidance signal for 2D refinement and propose a per-pixel confidence mask to identify uncertain regions for targeted improvement. Experiments across multiple datasets show that FreeFix improves multi-frame consistency and achieves performance comparable to or surpassing fine-tuning-based methods, while retaining strong generalization ability.

Large and diverse datasets are needed for training generalist robot policies that have potential to control a variety of robot embodiments -- robot arm and gripper combinations -- across diverse tasks and environments. As re-collecting demonstrations and retraining for each new hardware platform are prohibitively costly, we show that existing robot data can be augmented for transfer and generalization. The Open X-Embodiment (OXE) dataset, which aggregates demonstrations from over 60 robot datasets, has been widely used as the foundation for training generalist policies. However, it is highly imbalanced: the top four robot types account for over 85\% of its real data, which risks overfitting to robot-scene combinations. We present AugE-Toolkit, a scalable robot augmentation pipeline, and OXE-AugE, a high-quality open-source dataset that augments OXE with 9 different robot embodiments. OXE-AugE provides over 4.4 million trajectories, more than triple the size of the original OXE. We conduct a systematic study of how scaling robot augmentation impacts cross-embodiment learning. Results suggest that augmenting datasets with diverse arms and grippers improves policy performance not only on the augmented robots, but also on unseen robots and even the original robots under distribution shifts. In physical experiments, we demonstrate that state-of-the-art generalist policies such as OpenVLA and π_0 benefit from fine-tuning on OXE-AugE, improving success rates by 24-45% on previously unseen robot-gripper combinations across four real-world manipulation tasks. Project website: https://OXE-AugE.github.io/.

Parameter-efficient fine-tuning methods, represented by LoRA, play an essential role in adapting large-scale pre-trained models to downstream tasks. However, fine-tuning LoRA-series models also faces the risk of overfitting on the training dataset, and yet there's still a lack of theoretical guidance and practical mechanism to control overfitting on LoRA-based PEFT methods. In this paper, we propose a LoRA Dropout mechanism for the LoRA-based methods by introducing random noises to the learnable low-rank matrices and increasing parameter sparsity. We then demonstrate the theoretical mechanism of our LoRA Dropout mechanism from the perspective of sparsity regularization by providing a generalization error bound under this framework. Theoretical results show that appropriate sparsity would help tighten the gap between empirical and generalization risks and thereby control overfitting. Furthermore, based on the LoRA Dropout framework, we introduce a test-time ensemble strategy and provide theoretical evidence demonstrating that the ensemble method can further compress the error bound, and lead to better performance during inference time. Extensive experiments on various NLP tasks provide practical validations of the effectiveness of our LoRA Dropout framework in improving model accuracy and calibration.

Low-rank adaptation (LoRA) is a popular method for fine-tuning large-scale pre-trained models in downstream tasks by learning low-rank incremental matrices. Though LoRA and its variants effectively reduce the number of trainable parameters compared to full fine-tuning methods, they often overfit training data, resulting in sub-optimal generalization on test data. To address this problem, we introduce BiLoRA, an overfitting-alleviating fine-tuning approach based on bi-level optimization (BLO). BiLoRA employs pseudo singular value decomposition to parameterize low-rank incremental matrices and splits the training of pseudo singular vectors and values across two different subsets of training data. This division, embedded within separate levels of the BLO framework, mitigates the risk of overfitting to a single dataset. Tested on ten datasets covering natural language understanding and generation tasks and applied to various well-known large pre-trained models, BiLoRA significantly outperforms LoRA methods and other fine-tuning approaches, with similar amounts of trainable parameters.

Complex reasoning ability is one of the most important features of current LLMs, which has also been leveraged to play an integral role in complex decision-making tasks. Therefore, the investigation into the reasoning capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) is critical: numerous benchmarks have been established to assess the reasoning abilities of LLMs. However, current benchmarks are inadequate in offering a rigorous evaluation of the full extent of reasoning abilities that LLMs are capable of achieving. They are also prone to the risk of overfitting, as these benchmarks, being publicly accessible and static, allow models to potentially tailor their responses to specific benchmark metrics, thereby inflating their performance. Addressing these limitations, our research introduces a new benchmark, named NPHardEval. This benchmark is designed to evaluate the reasoning abilities of LLMs across a broad spectrum of 900 algorithmic questions, extending up to the NP-Hard complexity class. These questions are meticulously chosen to represent a wide range of complexity class below the NP-hard complexity class, offering a rigorous measure of the reasoning ability of LLMs. Through this study, we shed light on the current state of reasoning in LLMs, providing an objective and rigorous perspective through the comparison of LLMs' performance across complex classes. Moreover, this benchmark is designed with a dynamic update mechanism, where the datapoints are refreshed on a monthly basis. Such regular updates play a crucial role in mitigating the risk of LLMs overfitting to the benchmark, promoting a more accurate and reliable assessment of their reasoning capabilities. The benchmark dataset and code of NPHardEval are available at https://github.com/casmlab/NPHardEval.

The issue-resolving task, where a model generates patches to fix real-world bugs, has emerged as a critical benchmark for evaluating the capabilities of large language models (LLMs). While SWE-bench and its variants have become standard in this domain, they suffer from key limitations: they have not been updated since their initial releases, cover a narrow set of repositories, and depend heavily on manual effort for instance construction and environment setup. These factors hinder scalability and introduce risks of overfitting and data contamination. In this work, we present SWE-bench-Live, a live-updatable benchmark designed to overcome these challenges. Our initial release consists of 1,319 tasks derived from real GitHub issues created since 2024, spanning 93 repositories. Each task is accompanied by a dedicated Docker image to ensure reproducible execution. Central to our benchmark is \method, an automated curation pipeline that streamlines the entire process from instance creation to environment setup, removing manual bottlenecks and enabling scalability and continuous updates. We evaluate a range of state-of-the-art agent frameworks and LLMs on SWE-bench-Live, revealing a substantial performance gap compared to static benchmarks like SWE-bench, even under controlled evaluation conditions. To better understand this discrepancy, we perform detailed analyses across repository origin, issue recency, and task difficulty. By providing a fresh, diverse, and executable benchmark grounded in live repository activity, SWE-bench-Live facilitates rigorous, contamination-resistant evaluation of LLMs and agents in dynamic, real-world software development settings.

In novel view synthesis of scenes from multiple input views, 3D Gaussian splatting emerges as a viable alternative to existing radiance field approaches, delivering great visual quality and real-time rendering. While successful in static scenes, the present advancement of 3D Gaussian representation, however, faces challenges in dynamic scenes in terms of memory consumption and the need for numerous observations per time step, due to the onus of storing 3D Gaussian parameters per time step. In this study, we present an efficient 3D Gaussian representation tailored for dynamic scenes in which we define positions and rotations as functions of time while leaving other time-invariant properties of the static 3D Gaussian unchanged. Notably, our representation reduces memory usage, which is consistent regardless of the input sequence length. Additionally, it mitigates the risk of overfitting observed frames by accounting for temporal changes. The optimization of our Gaussian representation based on image and flow reconstruction results in a powerful framework for dynamic scene view synthesis in both monocular and multi-view cases. We obtain the highest rendering speed of 118 frames per second (FPS) at a resolution of 1352 times 1014 with a single GPU, showing the practical usability and effectiveness of our proposed method in dynamic scene rendering scenarios.

Recently, there has been a surge in face personalization techniques, benefiting from the advanced capabilities of pretrained text-to-image diffusion models. Among these, a notable method is Textual Inversion, which generates personalized images by inverting given images into textual embeddings. However, methods based on Textual Inversion still struggle with balancing the trade-off between reconstruction quality and editability. In this study, we examine this issue through the lens of initialization. Upon closely examining traditional initialization methods, we identified a significant disparity between the initial and learned embeddings in terms of both scale and orientation. The scale of the learned embedding can be up to 100 times greater than that of the initial embedding. Such a significant change in the embedding could increase the risk of overfitting, thereby compromising the editability. Driven by this observation, we introduce a novel initialization method, termed Cross Initialization, that significantly narrows the gap between the initial and learned embeddings. This method not only improves both reconstruction and editability but also reduces the optimization steps from 5000 to 320. Furthermore, we apply a regularization term to keep the learned embedding close to the initial embedding. We show that when combined with Cross Initialization, this regularization term can effectively improve editability. We provide comprehensive empirical evidence to demonstrate the superior performance of our method compared to the baseline methods. Notably, in our experiments, Cross Initialization is the only method that successfully edits an individual's facial expression. Additionally, a fast version of our method allows for capturing an input image in roughly 26 seconds, while surpassing the baseline methods in terms of both reconstruction and editability. Code will be made publicly available.

Under the pandemic of COVID-19, people experiencing COVID19-related symptoms or exposed to risk factors have a pressing need to consult doctors. Due to hospital closure, a lot of consulting services have been moved online. Because of the shortage of medical professionals, many people cannot receive online consultations timely. To address this problem, we aim to develop a medical dialogue system that can provide COVID19-related consultations. We collected two dialogue datasets -- CovidDialog -- (in English and Chinese respectively) containing conversations between doctors and patients about COVID-19. On these two datasets, we train several dialogue generation models based on Transformer, GPT, and BERT-GPT. Since the two COVID-19 dialogue datasets are small in size, which bear high risk of overfitting, we leverage transfer learning to mitigate data deficiency. Specifically, we take the pretrained models of Transformer, GPT, and BERT-GPT on dialog datasets and other large-scale texts, then finetune them on our CovidDialog tasks. We perform both automatic and human evaluation of responses generated by these models. The results show that the generated responses are promising in being doctor-like, relevant to the conversation history, and clinically informative. The data and code are available at https://github.com/UCSD-AI4H/COVID-Dialogue.

Rapid advancements in medical image segmentation performance have been significantly driven by the development of Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) and Vision Transformers (ViTs). These models follow the discriminative pixel-wise classification learning paradigm and often have limited ability to generalize across diverse medical imaging datasets. In this manuscript, we introduce Generative Medical Segmentation (GMS), a novel approach leveraging a generative model to perform image segmentation. Concretely, GMS employs a robust pre-trained vision foundation model to extract latent representations for images and corresponding ground truth masks, followed by a model that learns a mapping function from the image to the mask in the latent space. Once trained, the model generates an estimated segmentation mask using the pre-trained vision foundation model to decode the predicted latent representation back into the image space. The design of GMS leads to fewer trainable parameters in the model which reduces the risk of overfitting and enhances its generalization capability. Our experimental analysis across five public datasets in different medical imaging domains demonstrates GMS outperforms existing discriminative and generative segmentation models. Furthermore, GMS is able to generalize well across datasets from different centers within the same imaging modality. Our experiments suggest GMS offers a scalable and effective solution for medical image segmentation. GMS implementation and trained model weights are available at https://github.com/King-HAW/GMS.

The Lip Reading Sentences-3 (LRS3) benchmark has primarily been the focus of intense research in visual speech recognition (VSR) during the last few years. As a result, there is an increased risk of overfitting to its excessively used test set, which is only one hour duration. To alleviate this issue, we build a new VSR test set named WildVSR, by closely following the LRS3 dataset creation processes. We then evaluate and analyse the extent to which the current VSR models generalize to the new test data. We evaluate a broad range of publicly available VSR models and find significant drops in performance on our test set, compared to their corresponding LRS3 results. Our results suggest that the increase in word error rates is caused by the models inability to generalize to slightly harder and in the wild lip sequences than those found in the LRS3 test set. Our new test benchmark is made public in order to enable future research towards more robust VSR models.

Several studies have shown that speech and language features, automatically extracted from clinical interviews or spontaneous discourse, have diagnostic value for mental disorders such as schizophrenia and bipolar disorder. They typically make use of a large feature set to train a classifier for distinguishing between two groups of interest, i.e. a clinical and control group. However, a purely data-driven approach runs the risk of overfitting to a particular data set, especially when sample sizes are limited. Here, we first down-select the set of language features to a small subset that is related to a well-validated test of functional ability, the Social Skills Performance Assessment (SSPA). This helps establish the concurrent validity of the selected features. We use only these features to train a simple classifier to distinguish between groups of interest. Linear regression reveals that a subset of language features can effectively model the SSPA, with a correlation coefficient of 0.75. Furthermore, the same feature set can be used to build a strong binary classifier to distinguish between healthy controls and a clinical group (AUC = 0.96) and also between patients within the clinical group with schizophrenia and bipolar I disorder (AUC = 0.83).

Standardized benchmarks drive progress in machine learning. However, with repeated testing, the risk of overfitting grows as algorithms over-exploit benchmark idiosyncrasies. In our work, we seek to mitigate this challenge by compiling ever-expanding large-scale benchmarks called Lifelong Benchmarks. As exemplars of our approach, we create Lifelong-CIFAR10 and Lifelong-ImageNet, containing (for now) 1.69M and 1.98M test samples, respectively. While reducing overfitting, lifelong benchmarks introduce a key challenge: the high cost of evaluating a growing number of models across an ever-expanding sample set. To address this challenge, we also introduce an efficient evaluation framework: Sort \& Search (S&S), which reuses previously evaluated models by leveraging dynamic programming algorithms to selectively rank and sub-select test samples, enabling cost-effective lifelong benchmarking. Extensive empirical evaluations across 31,000 models demonstrate that S&S achieves highly-efficient approximate accuracy measurement, reducing compute cost from 180 GPU days to 5 GPU hours (1000x reduction) on a single A100 GPU, with low approximation error. As such, lifelong benchmarks offer a robust, practical solution to the "benchmark exhaustion" problem.

We seek to identify the most relevant benefits offered by Medicare Advantage Health Plans that drive membership and market share. As an example, we explore plans operating in a single county in New Jersey between 2018 and 2023. A dataset of benefits from publicly available data sources was created and the variance inflation factor was applied to identify the correlation between the extracted features, to avoid multicollinearity and overparameterization problems. We categorized the variable Market Share and used it as a multinomial response variable with three categories: less than 0.3\%, 0.3\% to 1.5\%, and over 1.5\%. Categories were chosen to achieve approximately uniform distribution of plans (47, 60, and 65 respectively). We built a multinomial Lasso model using 5-fold cross-validation to tune the penalty parameter. Lasso forced some features to be dropped from the model, which reduces the risk of overfitting and increases the interpretability of the results. For each category, important variables are different. Certain brands drive market share, as do PPO plans and prescription drug coverage. Benefits, particularly ancillary benefits that are not part of CMS's required benefits, appear to have little influence, while financial terms such as deductibles, copays, and out-of-pocket limits are associated with higher market share. Finally, we evaluated the predictive accuracy of the Lasso model with the test set. The accuracy is 0.76.

Neural entity linking models are very powerful, but run the risk of overfitting to the domain they are trained in. For this problem, a domain is characterized not just by genre of text but even by factors as specific as the particular distribution of entities, as neural models tend to overfit by memorizing properties of frequent entities in a dataset. We tackle the problem of building robust entity linking models that generalize effectively and do not rely on labeled entity linking data with a specific entity distribution. Rather than predicting entities directly, our approach models fine-grained entity properties, which can help disambiguate between even closely related entities. We derive a large inventory of types (tens of thousands) from Wikipedia categories, and use hyperlinked mentions in Wikipedia to distantly label data and train an entity typing model. At test time, we classify a mention with this typing model and use soft type predictions to link the mention to the most similar candidate entity. We evaluate our entity linking system on the CoNLL-YAGO dataset (Hoffart et al., 2011) and show that our approach outperforms prior domain-independent entity linking systems. We also test our approach in a harder setting derived from the WikilinksNED dataset (Eshel et al., 2017) where all the mention-entity pairs are unseen during test time. Results indicate that our approach generalizes better than a state-of-the-art neural model on the dataset.

Large Language Model (LLM) agents have demonstrated remarkable generalization capabilities across multi-domain tasks. Existing agent tuning approaches typically employ supervised finetuning on entire expert trajectories. However, behavior-cloning of full trajectories can introduce expert bias and weaken generalization to states not covered by the expert data. Additionally, critical steps, such as planning, complex reasoning for intermediate subtasks, and strategic decision-making, are essential to success in agent tasks, so learning these steps is the key to improving LLM agents. For more effective and efficient agent tuning, we propose ATLaS that identifies the critical steps in expert trajectories and finetunes LLMs solely on these steps with reduced costs. By steering the training's focus to a few critical steps, our method mitigates the risk of overfitting entire trajectories and promotes generalization across different environments and tasks. In extensive experiments, an LLM finetuned on only 30% critical steps selected by ATLaS outperforms the LLM finetuned on all steps and recent open-source LLM agents. ATLaS maintains and improves base LLM skills as generalist agents interacting with diverse environments.

Reconstructing 3D human heads in low-view settings presents technical challenges, mainly due to the pronounced risk of overfitting with limited views and high-frequency signals. To address this, we propose geometry decomposition and adopt a two-stage, coarse-to-fine training strategy, allowing for progressively capturing high-frequency geometric details. We represent 3D human heads using the zero level-set of a combined signed distance field, comprising a smooth template, a non-rigid deformation, and a high-frequency displacement field. The template captures features that are independent of both identity and expression and is co-trained with the deformation network across multiple individuals with sparse and randomly selected views. The displacement field, capturing individual-specific details, undergoes separate training for each person. Our network training does not require 3D supervision or object masks. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of our geometry decomposition and two-stage training strategy. Our method outperforms existing neural rendering approaches in terms of reconstruction accuracy and novel view synthesis under low-view settings. Moreover, the pre-trained template serves a good initialization for our model when encountering unseen individuals.

Recently, deep convolutional neural networks have achieved great success for medical image segmentation. However, unlike segmentation of natural images, most medical images such as MRI and CT are volumetric data. In order to make full use of volumetric information, 3D CNNs are widely used. However, 3D CNNs suffer from higher inference time and computation cost, which hinders their further clinical applications. Additionally, with the increased number of parameters, the risk of overfitting is higher, especially for medical images where data and annotations are expensive to acquire. To issue this problem, many 2.5D segmentation methods have been proposed to make use of volumetric spatial information with less computation cost. Despite these works lead to improvements on a variety of segmentation tasks, to the best of our knowledge, there has not previously been a large-scale empirical comparison of these methods. In this paper, we aim to present a review of the latest developments of 2.5D methods for volumetric medical image segmentation. Additionally, to compare the performance and effectiveness of these methods, we provide an empirical study of these methods on three representative segmentation tasks involving different modalities and targets. Our experimental results highlight that 3D CNNs may not always be the best choice. Despite all these 2.5D methods can bring performance gains to 2D baseline, not all the methods hold the benefits on different datasets. We hope the results and conclusions of our study will prove useful for the community on exploring and developing efficient volumetric medical image segmentation methods.

Uncertainty quantification is essential when dealing with ill-conditioned inverse problems due to the inherent nonuniqueness of the solution. Bayesian approaches allow us to determine how likely an estimation of the unknown parameters is via formulating the posterior distribution. Unfortunately, it is often not possible to formulate a prior distribution that precisely encodes our prior knowledge about the unknown. Furthermore, adherence to handcrafted priors may greatly bias the outcome of the Bayesian analysis. To address this issue, we propose to use the functional form of a randomly initialized convolutional neural network as an implicit structured prior, which is shown to promote natural images and excludes images with unnatural noise. In order to incorporate the model uncertainty into the final estimate, we sample the posterior distribution using stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics and perform Bayesian model averaging on the obtained samples. Our synthetic numerical experiment verifies that deep priors combined with Bayesian model averaging are able to partially circumvent imaging artifacts and reduce the risk of overfitting in the presence of extreme noise. Finally, we present pointwise variance of the estimates as a measure of uncertainty, which coincides with regions that are more difficult to image.

Despite remarkable progress, multimodal foundation models still exhibit surprising deficiencies in spatial intelligence. In this work, we explore scaling up multimodal foundation models to cultivate spatial intelligence within the SenseNova-SI family, built upon established multimodal foundations including visual understanding models (i.e., Qwen3-VL and InternVL3) and unified understanding and generation models (i.e., Bagel). We take a principled approach to constructing high-performing and robust spatial intelligence by systematically curating SenseNova-SI-8M: eight million diverse data samples under a rigorous taxonomy of spatial capabilities. SenseNova-SI demonstrates unprecedented performance across a broad range of spatial intelligence benchmarks: 68.7% on VSI-Bench, 43.3% on MMSI, 85.6% on MindCube, 54.6% on ViewSpatial, and 50.1% on SITE, while maintaining strong general multimodal understanding (e.g., 84.9% on MMBench-En). More importantly, we analyze the impact of data scaling, discuss early signs of emergent generalization capabilities enabled by diverse data training, analyze the risk of overfitting and language shortcuts, present a preliminary study on spatial chain-of-thought reasoning, and validate the potential downstream application. SenseNova-SI is an ongoing project, and this report will be updated continuously. All newly trained multimodal foundation models are publicly released to facilitate further research in this direction.

Few-shot tabular learning, in which machine learning models are trained with a limited amount of labeled data, provides a cost-effective approach to addressing real-world challenges. The advent of Large Language Models (LLMs) has sparked interest in leveraging their pre-trained knowledge for few-shot tabular learning. Despite promising results, existing approaches either rely on test-time knowledge extraction, which introduces undesirable latency, or text-level knowledge, which leads to unreliable feature engineering. To overcome these limitations, we propose Latte, a training-time knowledge extraction framework that transfers the latent prior knowledge within LLMs to optimize a more generalized downstream model. Latte enables general knowledge-guided downstream tabular learning, facilitating the weighted fusion of information across different feature values while reducing the risk of overfitting to limited labeled data. Furthermore, Latte is compatible with existing unsupervised pre-training paradigms and effectively utilizes available unlabeled samples to overcome the performance limitations imposed by an extremely small labeled dataset. Extensive experiments on various few-shot tabular learning benchmarks demonstrate the superior performance of Latte, establishing it as a state-of-the-art approach in this domain

The ability of gaze estimation models to generalize is often significantly hindered by various factors unrelated to gaze, especially when the training dataset is limited. Current strategies aim to address this challenge through different domain generalization techniques, yet they have had limited success due to the risk of overfitting when solely relying on value labels for regression. Recent progress in pre-trained vision-language models has motivated us to capitalize on the abundant semantic information available. We propose a novel approach in this paper, reframing the gaze estimation task as a vision-language alignment issue. Our proposed framework, named Language-Guided Gaze Estimation (LG-Gaze), learns continuous and geometry-sensitive features for gaze estimation benefit from the rich prior knowledges of vision-language models. Specifically, LG-Gaze aligns gaze features with continuous linguistic features through our proposed multimodal contrastive regression loss, which customizes adaptive weights for different negative samples. Furthermore, to better adapt to the labels for gaze estimation task, we propose a geometry-aware interpolation method to obtain more precise gaze embeddings. Through extensive experiments, we validate the efficacy of our framework in four different cross-domain evaluation tasks.

Conventional text-to-speech (TTS) research has predominantly focused on enhancing the quality of synthesized speech for speakers in the training dataset. The challenge of synthesizing lifelike speech for unseen, out-of-dataset speakers, especially those with limited reference data, remains a significant and unresolved problem. While zero-shot or few-shot speaker-adaptive TTS approaches have been explored, they have many limitations. Zero-shot approaches tend to suffer from insufficient generalization performance to reproduce the voice of speakers with heavy accents. While few-shot methods can reproduce highly varying accents, they bring a significant storage burden and the risk of overfitting and catastrophic forgetting. In addition, prior approaches only provide either zero-shot or few-shot adaptation, constraining their utility across varied real-world scenarios with different demands. Besides, most current evaluations of speaker-adaptive TTS are conducted only on datasets of native speakers, inadvertently neglecting a vast portion of non-native speakers with diverse accents. Our proposed framework unifies both zero-shot and few-shot speaker adaptation strategies, which we term as "instant" and "fine-grained" adaptations based on their merits. To alleviate the insufficient generalization performance observed in zero-shot speaker adaptation, we designed two innovative discriminators and introduced a memory mechanism for the speech decoder. To prevent catastrophic forgetting and reduce storage implications for few-shot speaker adaptation, we designed two adapters and a unique adaptation procedure.

Industrial anomaly detection (IAD) has garnered significant attention and experienced rapid development. However, the recent development of IAD approach has encountered certain difficulties due to dataset limitations. On the one hand, most of the state-of-the-art methods have achieved saturation (over 99% in AUROC) on mainstream datasets such as MVTec, and the differences of methods cannot be well distinguished, leading to a significant gap between public datasets and actual application scenarios. On the other hand, the research on various new practical anomaly detection settings is limited by the scale of the dataset, posing a risk of overfitting in evaluation results. Therefore, we propose a large-scale, Real-world, and multi-view Industrial Anomaly Detection dataset, named Real-IAD, which contains 150K high-resolution images of 30 different objects, an order of magnitude larger than existing datasets. It has a larger range of defect area and ratio proportions, making it more challenging than previous datasets. To make the dataset closer to real application scenarios, we adopted a multi-view shooting method and proposed sample-level evaluation metrics. In addition, beyond the general unsupervised anomaly detection setting, we propose a new setting for Fully Unsupervised Industrial Anomaly Detection (FUIAD) based on the observation that the yield rate in industrial production is usually greater than 60%, which has more practical application value. Finally, we report the results of popular IAD methods on the Real-IAD dataset, providing a highly challenging benchmark to promote the development of the IAD field.

Diffusion models have achieved remarkable success in text-to-image generation, enabling the creation of high-quality images from text prompts or other modalities. However, existing methods for customizing these models are limited by handling multiple personalized subjects and the risk of overfitting. Moreover, their large number of parameters is inefficient for model storage. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to address these limitations in existing text-to-image diffusion models for personalization. Our method involves fine-tuning the singular values of the weight matrices, leading to a compact and efficient parameter space that reduces the risk of overfitting and language drifting. We also propose a Cut-Mix-Unmix data-augmentation technique to enhance the quality of multi-subject image generation and a simple text-based image editing framework. Our proposed SVDiff method has a significantly smaller model size compared to existing methods (approximately 2,200 times fewer parameters compared with vanilla DreamBooth), making it more practical for real-world applications.

Determining the optimal data mixture for large language model training remains a challenging problem with an outsized impact on performance. In practice, language model developers continue to rely on heuristic exploration since no learning-based approach has emerged as a reliable solution. In this work, we propose to view the selection of training data mixtures as a black-box hyperparameter optimization problem, for which Bayesian Optimization is a well-established class of appropriate algorithms. Firstly, we cast data mixture learning as a sequential decision-making problem, in which we aim to find a suitable trade-off between the computational cost of training exploratory (proxy-) models and final mixture performance. Secondly, we systematically explore the properties of transferring mixtures learned at a small scale to larger-scale experiments, providing insights and highlighting opportunities for research at a modest scale. By proposing Multi-fidelity Bayesian Optimization as a suitable method in this common scenario, we introduce a natural framework to balance experiment cost with model fit, avoiding the risks of overfitting to smaller scales while minimizing the number of experiments at high cost. We present results for pre-training and instruction finetuning across models ranging from 1 million to 7 billion parameters, varying from simple architectures to state-of-the-art models and benchmarks spanning dozens of datasets. We demonstrate consistently strong results relative to a wide range of baselines, resulting inspeed-ups of over 500% in determining the best data mixture on our largest experiments. In addition, we broaden access to research by sharing ADMIRE IFT Runs, a dataset of 460 full training & evaluation runs worth over 13,000 GPU hours, greatly reducing the cost of conducting research in this area.

Machine learning algorithms, when applied to sensitive data, pose a distinct threat to privacy. A growing body of prior work demonstrates that models produced by these algorithms may leak specific private information in the training data to an attacker, either through the models' structure or their observable behavior. However, the underlying cause of this privacy risk is not well understood beyond a handful of anecdotal accounts that suggest overfitting and influence might play a role. This paper examines the effect that overfitting and influence have on the ability of an attacker to learn information about the training data from machine learning models, either through training set membership inference or attribute inference attacks. Using both formal and empirical analyses, we illustrate a clear relationship between these factors and the privacy risk that arises in several popular machine learning algorithms. We find that overfitting is sufficient to allow an attacker to perform membership inference and, when the target attribute meets certain conditions about its influence, attribute inference attacks. Interestingly, our formal analysis also shows that overfitting is not necessary for these attacks and begins to shed light on what other factors may be in play. Finally, we explore the connection between membership inference and attribute inference, showing that there are deep connections between the two that lead to effective new attacks.

Empirical risk minimization (ERM) with a computationally feasible surrogate loss is a widely accepted approach for classification. Notably, the convexity and calibration (CC) properties of a loss function ensure consistency of ERM in maximizing accuracy, thereby offering a wide range of options for surrogate losses. In this article, we propose a novel ensemble method, namely EnsLoss, which extends the ensemble learning concept to combine loss functions within the ERM framework. A key feature of our method is the consideration on preserving the "legitimacy" of the combined losses, i.e., ensuring the CC properties. Specifically, we first transform the CC conditions of losses into loss-derivatives, thereby bypassing the need for explicit loss functions and directly generating calibrated loss-derivatives. Therefore, inspired by Dropout, EnsLoss enables loss ensembles through one training process with doubly stochastic gradient descent (i.e., random batch samples and random calibrated loss-derivatives). We theoretically establish the statistical consistency of our approach and provide insights into its benefits. The numerical effectiveness of EnsLoss compared to fixed loss methods is demonstrated through experiments on a broad range of 14 OpenML tabular datasets and 46 image datasets with various deep learning architectures. Python repository and source code are available on GitHub at https://github.com/statmlben/ensloss.

Deep learning is often criticized by two serious issues which rarely exist in natural nervous systems: overfitting and catastrophic forgetting. It can even memorize randomly labelled data, which has little knowledge behind the instance-label pairs. When a deep network continually learns over time by accommodating new tasks, it usually quickly overwrites the knowledge learned from previous tasks. Referred to as the {\it neural variability}, it is well-known in neuroscience that human brain reactions exhibit substantial variability even in response to the same stimulus. This mechanism balances accuracy and plasticity/flexibility in the motor learning of natural nervous systems. Thus it motivates us to design a similar mechanism named {\it artificial neural variability} (ANV), which helps artificial neural networks learn some advantages from ``natural'' neural networks. We rigorously prove that ANV plays as an implicit regularizer of the mutual information between the training data and the learned model. This result theoretically guarantees ANV a strictly improved generalizability, robustness to label noise, and robustness to catastrophic forgetting. We then devise a {\it neural variable risk minimization} (NVRM) framework and {\it neural variable optimizers} to achieve ANV for conventional network architectures in practice. The empirical studies demonstrate that NVRM can effectively relieve overfitting, label noise memorization, and catastrophic forgetting at negligible costs. Code: \url{https://github.com/zeke-xie/artificial-neural-variability-for-deep-learning.

Machine learning models that are overfitted/overtrained are more vulnerable to knowledge leakage, which poses a risk to privacy. Suppose we download or receive a model from a third-party collaborator without knowing its training accuracy. How can we determine if it has been overfitted or overtrained on its training data? It's possible that the model was intentionally over-trained to make it vulnerable during testing. While an overfitted or overtrained model may perform well on testing data and even some generalization tests, we can't be sure it's not over-fitted. Conducting a comprehensive generalization test is also expensive. The goal of this paper is to address these issues and ensure the privacy and generalization of our method using only testing data. To achieve this, we analyze the null space in the last layer of neural networks, which enables us to quantify overfitting without access to training data or knowledge of the accuracy of those data. We evaluated our approach on various architectures and datasets and observed a distinct pattern in the angle of null space when models are overfitted. Furthermore, we show that models with poor generalization exhibit specific characteristics in this space. Our work represents the first attempt to quantify overfitting without access to training data or knowing any knowledge about the training samples.

Regardless of the selected asset class and the level of model complexity (Transformer versus LSTM versus Perceptron/RNN), the GMADL loss function produces superior results than standard MSE-type loss functions and has better numerical properties in the context of optimization than MADL. Better results mean the possibility of achieving a higher risk-weighted return based on buy and sell signals built on forecasts generated by a given theoretical model estimated using the GMADL versus MSE or MADL function. In practice, GMADL solves the problem of selecting the most preferable feature in both classification and regression problems, improving the performance of each estimation. What is important is that, through additional parameterization, GMADL also solves the problem of optimizing investment systems on high-frequency data in such a way that they focus on strategy variants that contain fewer transactions so that transaction costs do not reduce the effectiveness of a given strategy to zero. Moreover, the implementation leverages state-of-the-art machine learning tools, including frameworks for hyperparameter tuning, architecture testing, and walk-forward optimization, ensuring robust and scalable solutions for real-world algorithmic trading.

We study the cost of overfitting in noisy kernel ridge regression (KRR), which we define as the ratio between the test error of the interpolating ridgeless model and the test error of the optimally-tuned model. We take an "agnostic" view in the following sense: we consider the cost as a function of sample size for any target function, even if the sample size is not large enough for consistency or the target is outside the RKHS. We analyze the cost of overfitting under a Gaussian universality ansatz using recently derived (non-rigorous) risk estimates in terms of the task eigenstructure. Our analysis provides a more refined characterization of benign, tempered and catastrophic overfitting (cf. Mallinar et al. 2022).

In our era of enormous neural networks, empirical progress has been driven by the philosophy that more is better. Recent deep learning practice has found repeatedly that larger model size, more data, and more computation (resulting in lower training loss) improves performance. In this paper, we give theoretical backing to these empirical observations by showing that these three properties hold in random feature (RF) regression, a class of models equivalent to shallow networks with only the last layer trained. Concretely, we first show that the test risk of RF regression decreases monotonically with both the number of features and the number of samples, provided the ridge penalty is tuned optimally. In particular, this implies that infinite width RF architectures are preferable to those of any finite width. We then proceed to demonstrate that, for a large class of tasks characterized by powerlaw eigenstructure, training to near-zero training loss is obligatory: near-optimal performance can only be achieved when the training error is much smaller than the test error. Grounding our theory in real-world data, we find empirically that standard computer vision tasks with convolutional neural tangent kernels clearly fall into this class. Taken together, our results tell a simple, testable story of the benefits of overparameterization, overfitting, and more data in random feature models.

Exceptional mathematical reasoning ability is one of the key features that demonstrate the power of large language models (LLMs). How to comprehensively define and evaluate the mathematical abilities of LLMs, and even reflect the user experience in real-world scenarios, has emerged as a critical issue. Current benchmarks predominantly concentrate on problem-solving capabilities, which presents a substantial risk of model overfitting and fails to accurately represent genuine mathematical reasoning abilities. In this paper, we argue that if a model really understands a problem, it should be robustly and readily applied across a diverse array of tasks. Motivated by this, we introduce MATHCHECK, a well-designed checklist for testing task generalization and reasoning robustness, as well as an automatic tool to generate checklists efficiently. MATHCHECK includes multiple mathematical reasoning tasks and robustness test types to facilitate a comprehensive evaluation of both mathematical reasoning ability and behavior testing. Utilizing MATHCHECK, we develop MATHCHECK-GSM and MATHCHECK-GEO to assess mathematical textual reasoning and multi-modal reasoning capabilities, respectively, serving as upgraded versions of benchmarks including GSM8k, GeoQA, UniGeo, and Geometry3K. We adopt MATHCHECK-GSM and MATHCHECK-GEO to evaluate over 20 LLMs and 11 MLLMs, assessing their comprehensive mathematical reasoning abilities. Our results demonstrate that while frontier LLMs like GPT-4o continue to excel in various abilities on the checklist, many other model families exhibit a significant decline. Further experiments indicate that, compared to traditional math benchmarks, MATHCHECK better reflects true mathematical abilities and represents mathematical intelligence more linearly, thereby supporting our design. On our MATHCHECK, we can easily conduct detailed behavior analysis to deeply investigate models.

Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) and Reinforcement Learning (RL) are two prominent post-training paradigms for refining the capabilities and aligning the behavior of Large Language Models (LLMs). Existing approaches that integrate SFT and RL often face the risk of disrupting established model patterns and inducing overfitting to expert data. To address this, we present a novel investigation into the unified view of SFT and RL through an off-policy versus on-policy lens. We propose CHORD, a framework for the Controllable Harmonization of On- and Off-Policy Reinforcement Learning via Dynamic Weighting, which reframes SFT not as a separate stage but as a dynamically weighted auxiliary objective within the on-policy RL process. Based on an analysis of off-policy expert data's influence at both holistic and granular levels, we incorporate a dual-control mechanism in CHORD. Specifically, the framework first employs a global coefficient to holistically guide the transition from off-policy imitation to on-policy exploration, and then applies a token-wise weighting function that enables granular learning from expert tokens, which preserves on-policy exploration and mitigates disruption from off-policy data. We conduct extensive experiments on widely used benchmarks, providing empirical evidence that CHORD achieves a stable and efficient learning process. By effectively harmonizing off-policy expert data with on-policy exploration, CHORD demonstrates significant improvements over baselines. We release the implementation at https://github.com/modelscope/Trinity-RFT/tree/main/examples/mix_chord to inspire further research.

Understanding how overparameterized neural networks generalize despite perfect interpolation of noisy training data is a fundamental question. Mallinar et. al. 2022 noted that neural networks seem to often exhibit ``tempered overfitting'', wherein the population risk does not converge to the Bayes optimal error, but neither does it approach infinity, yielding non-trivial generalization. However, this has not been studied rigorously. We provide the first rigorous analysis of the overfitting behavior of regression with minimum norm (ell_2 of weights), focusing on univariate two-layer ReLU networks. We show overfitting is tempered (with high probability) when measured with respect to the L_1 loss, but also show that the situation is more complex than suggested by Mallinar et. al., and overfitting is catastrophic with respect to the L_2 loss, or when taking an expectation over the training set.

Finetuning on narrow domains has become an essential tool to adapt Large Language Models (LLMs) to specific tasks and to create models with known unusual properties that are useful for research. We show that narrow finetuning creates strong biases in LLM activations that can be interpreted to understand the finetuning domain. These biases can be discovered using simple tools from model diffing - the study of differences between models before and after finetuning. In particular, analyzing activation differences on the first few tokens of random text and steering by adding this difference to the model activations produces text similar to the format and general content of the finetuning data. We demonstrate that these analyses contain crucial information by creating an LLM-based interpretability agent to understand the finetuning domain. With access to the bias, the agent performs significantly better compared to baseline agents using simple prompting. Our analysis spans synthetic document finetuning for false facts, emergent misalignment, subliminal learning, and taboo word guessing game models across different architectures (Gemma, LLaMA, Qwen) and scales (1B to 32B parameters). We suspect these biases reflect overfitting and find that mixing pretraining data into the finetuning corpus largely removes them, though residual risks may remain. Our work (1) demonstrates that narrowly finetuned models have salient traces of their training objective in their activations and suggests ways to improve how they are trained, (2) warns AI safety and interpretability researchers that the common practice of using such models as a proxy for studying broader finetuning (e.g., chat-tuning) might not be realistic, and (3) highlights the need for deeper investigation into the effects of narrow finetuning and development of truly realistic case studies for model-diffing, safety and interpretability research.

This work investigates Source-Free Domain Adaptation (SFDA), where a model adapts to a target domain without access to source data. A new augmentation technique, Shuffle PatchMix (SPM), and a novel reweighting strategy are introduced to enhance performance. SPM shuffles and blends image patches to generate diverse and challenging augmentations, while the reweighting strategy prioritizes reliable pseudo-labels to mitigate label noise. These techniques are particularly effective on smaller datasets like PACS, where overfitting and pseudo-label noise pose greater risks. State-of-the-art results are achieved on three major benchmarks: PACS, VisDA-C, and DomainNet-126. Notably, on PACS, improvements of 7.3% (79.4% to 86.7%) and 7.2% are observed in single-target and multi-target settings, respectively, while gains of 2.8% and 0.7% are attained on DomainNet-126 and VisDA-C. This combination of advanced augmentation and robust pseudo-label reweighting establishes a new benchmark for SFDA. The code is available at: https://github.com/PrasannaPulakurthi/SPM

Reinforcement learning has shown strong promise for quadrupedal agile locomotion, even with proprioception-only sensing. In practice, however, sim-to-real gap and reward overfitting in complex terrains can produce policies that fail to transfer, while physical validation remains risky and inefficient. To address these challenges, we introduce a unified framework encompassing a Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) locomotion policy for robust multi-terrain representation with RoboGauge, a predictive assessment suite that quantifies sim-to-real transferability. The MoE policy employs a gated set of specialist experts to decompose latent terrain and command modeling, achieving superior deployment robustness and generalization via proprioception alone. RoboGauge further provides multi-dimensional proprioception-based metrics via sim-to-sim tests over terrains, difficulty levels, and domain randomizations, enabling reliable MoE policy selection without extensive physical trials. Experiments on a Unitree Go2 demonstrate robust locomotion on unseen challenging terrains, including snow, sand, stairs, slopes, and 30 cm obstacles. In dedicated high-speed tests, the robot reaches 4 m/s and exhibits an emergent narrow-width gait associated with improved stability at high velocity.

Despite their immense success, deep convolutional neural networks (CNNs) can be difficult to optimize and costly to train due to hundreds of layers within the network depth. Conventional convolutional operations are fundamentally limited by their linear nature along with fixed activations, where many layers are needed to learn meaningful patterns in data. Because of the sheer size of these networks, this approach is simply computationally inefficient, and poses overfitting or gradient explosion risks, especially in small datasets. As a result, we introduce a "plug-in" module, called Residual Kolmogorov-Arnold Network (RKAN). Our module is highly compact, so it can be easily added into any stage (level) of traditional deep networks, where it learns to integrate supportive polynomial feature transformations to existing convolutional frameworks. RKAN offers consistent improvements over baseline models in different vision tasks and widely tested benchmarks, accomplishing cutting-edge performance on them.

When a large feedforward neural network is trained on a small training set, it typically performs poorly on held-out test data. This "overfitting" is greatly reduced by randomly omitting half of the feature detectors on each training case. This prevents complex co-adaptations in which a feature detector is only helpful in the context of several other specific feature detectors. Instead, each neuron learns to detect a feature that is generally helpful for producing the correct answer given the combinatorially large variety of internal contexts in which it must operate. Random "dropout" gives big improvements on many benchmark tasks and sets new records for speech and object recognition.

Recent work have demonstrated that robustness (to "corruption") can be at odds with generalization. Adversarial training, for instance, aims to reduce the problematic susceptibility of modern neural networks to small data perturbations. Surprisingly, overfitting is a major concern in adversarial training despite being mostly absent in standard training. We provide here theoretical evidence for this peculiar "robust overfitting" phenomenon. Subsequently, we advance a novel distributionally robust loss function bridging robustness and generalization. We demonstrate both theoretically as well as empirically the loss to enjoy a certified level of robustness against two common types of corruption--data evasion and poisoning attacks--while ensuring guaranteed generalization. We show through careful numerical experiments that our resulting holistic robust (HR) training procedure yields SOTA performance. Finally, we indicate that HR training can be interpreted as a direct extension of adversarial training and comes with a negligible additional computational burden. A ready-to-use python library implementing our algorithm is available at https://github.com/RyanLucas3/HR_Neural_Networks.

Machine learning models are vulnerable to adversarial perturbations, and a thought-provoking paper by Bubeck and Sellke has analyzed this phenomenon through the lens of over-parameterization: interpolating smoothly the data requires significantly more parameters than simply memorizing it. However, this "universal" law provides only a necessary condition for robustness, and it is unable to discriminate between models. In this paper, we address these gaps by focusing on empirical risk minimization in two prototypical settings, namely, random features and the neural tangent kernel (NTK). We prove that, for random features, the model is not robust for any degree of over-parameterization, even when the necessary condition coming from the universal law of robustness is satisfied. In contrast, for even activations, the NTK model meets the universal lower bound, and it is robust as soon as the necessary condition on over-parameterization is fulfilled. This also addresses a conjecture in prior work by Bubeck, Li and Nagaraj. Our analysis decouples the effect of the kernel of the model from an "interaction matrix", which describes the interaction with the test data and captures the effect of the activation. Our theoretical results are corroborated by numerical evidence on both synthetic and standard datasets (MNIST, CIFAR-10).

In order to minimize the generalization error in neural networks, a novel technique to identify overfitting phenomena when training the learner is formally introduced. This enables support of a reliable and trustworthy early stopping condition, thus improving the predictive power of that type of modeling. Our proposal exploits the correlation over time in a collection of online indicators, namely characteristic functions for indicating if a set of hypotheses are met, associated with a range of independent stopping conditions built from a canary judgment to evaluate the presence of overfitting. That way, we provide a formal basis for decision making in terms of interrupting the learning process. As opposed to previous approaches focused on a single criterion, we take advantage of subsidiarities between independent assessments, thus seeking both a wider operating range and greater diagnostic reliability. With a view to illustrating the effectiveness of the halting condition described, we choose to work in the sphere of natural language processing, an operational continuum increasingly based on machine learning. As a case study, we focus on parser generation, one of the most demanding and complex tasks in the domain. The selection of cross-validation as a canary function enables an actual comparison with the most representative early stopping conditions based on overfitting identification, pointing to a promising start toward an optimal bias and variance control.

We perform an average case analysis of the generalization dynamics of large neural networks trained using gradient descent. We study the practically-relevant "high-dimensional" regime where the number of free parameters in the network is on the order of or even larger than the number of examples in the dataset. Using random matrix theory and exact solutions in linear models, we derive the generalization error and training error dynamics of learning and analyze how they depend on the dimensionality of data and signal to noise ratio of the learning problem. We find that the dynamics of gradient descent learning naturally protect against overtraining and overfitting in large networks. Overtraining is worst at intermediate network sizes, when the effective number of free parameters equals the number of samples, and thus can be reduced by making a network smaller or larger. Additionally, in the high-dimensional regime, low generalization error requires starting with small initial weights. We then turn to non-linear neural networks, and show that making networks very large does not harm their generalization performance. On the contrary, it can in fact reduce overtraining, even without early stopping or regularization of any sort. We identify two novel phenomena underlying this behavior in overcomplete models: first, there is a frozen subspace of the weights in which no learning occurs under gradient descent; and second, the statistical properties of the high-dimensional regime yield better-conditioned input correlations which protect against overtraining. We demonstrate that naive application of worst-case theories such as Rademacher complexity are inaccurate in predicting the generalization performance of deep neural networks, and derive an alternative bound which incorporates the frozen subspace and conditioning effects and qualitatively matches the behavior observed in simulation.

Generalization to out-of-distribution (OOD) data is a critical challenge in machine learning. Ensemble-based methods, like weight space ensembles that interpolate model parameters, have been shown to achieve superior OOD performance. However, the underlying mechanism for their effectiveness remains unclear. In this study, we closely examine WiSE-FT, a popular weight space ensemble method that interpolates between a pre-trained and a fine-tuned model. We observe an unexpected phenomenon, in which WiSE-FT successfully corrects many cases where each individual model makes incorrect predictions, which contributes significantly to its OOD effectiveness. To gain further insights, we conduct theoretical analysis in a multi-class setting with a large number of spurious features. Our analysis predicts the above phenomenon and it further shows that ensemble-based models reduce prediction errors in the OOD settings by utilizing a more diverse set of spurious features. Contrary to the conventional wisdom that focuses on learning invariant features for better OOD performance, our findings suggest that incorporating a large number of diverse spurious features weakens their individual contributions, leading to improved overall OOD generalization performance. Empirically we demonstrate the effectiveness of utilizing diverse spurious features on a MultiColorMNIST dataset, and our experimental results are consistent with the theoretical analysis. Building upon the new theoretical insights into the efficacy of ensemble methods, we further identify an issue of WiSE-FT caused by the overconfidence of fine-tuned models in OOD situations. This overconfidence magnifies the fine-tuned model's incorrect prediction, leading to deteriorated OOD ensemble performance. To remedy this problem, we propose a novel method called BAlaNced averaGing (BANG), which significantly enhances the OOD performance of WiSE-FT.

Overfitting widely exists in adversarial robust training of deep networks. An effective remedy is adversarial weight perturbation, which injects the worst-case weight perturbation during network training by maximizing the classification loss on adversarial examples. Adversarial weight perturbation helps reduce the robust generalization gap; however, it also undermines the robustness improvement. A criterion that regulates the weight perturbation is therefore crucial for adversarial training. In this paper, we propose such a criterion, namely Loss Stationary Condition (LSC) for constrained perturbation. With LSC, we find that it is essential to conduct weight perturbation on adversarial data with small classification loss to eliminate robust overfitting. Weight perturbation on adversarial data with large classification loss is not necessary and may even lead to poor robustness. Based on these observations, we propose a robust perturbation strategy to constrain the extent of weight perturbation. The perturbation strategy prevents deep networks from overfitting while avoiding the side effect of excessive weight perturbation, significantly improving the robustness of adversarial training. Extensive experiments demonstrate the superiority of the proposed method over the state-of-the-art adversarial training methods.

Conventional wisdom suggests that neural network predictions tend to be unpredictable and overconfident when faced with out-of-distribution (OOD) inputs. Our work reassesses this assumption for neural networks with high-dimensional inputs. Rather than extrapolating in arbitrary ways, we observe that neural network predictions often tend towards a constant value as input data becomes increasingly OOD. Moreover, we find that this value often closely approximates the optimal constant solution (OCS), i.e., the prediction that minimizes the average loss over the training data without observing the input. We present results showing this phenomenon across 8 datasets with different distributional shifts (including CIFAR10-C and ImageNet-R, S), different loss functions (cross entropy, MSE, and Gaussian NLL), and different architectures (CNNs and transformers). Furthermore, we present an explanation for this behavior, which we first validate empirically and then study theoretically in a simplified setting involving deep homogeneous networks with ReLU activations. Finally, we show how one can leverage our insights in practice to enable risk-sensitive decision-making in the presence of OOD inputs.

Robust planning in interactive scenarios requires predicting the uncertain future to make risk-aware decisions. Unfortunately, due to long-tail safety-critical events, the risk is often under-estimated by finite-sampling approximations of probabilistic motion forecasts. This can lead to overconfident and unsafe robot behavior, even with robust planners. Instead of assuming full prediction coverage that robust planners require, we propose to make prediction itself risk-aware. We introduce a new prediction objective to learn a risk-biased distribution over trajectories, so that risk evaluation simplifies to an expected cost estimation under this biased distribution. This reduces the sample complexity of the risk estimation during online planning, which is needed for safe real-time performance. Evaluation results in a didactic simulation environment and on a real-world dataset demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach. The code and a demo are available.

Neural networks trained by gradient descent (GD) have exhibited a number of surprising generalization behaviors. First, they can achieve a perfect fit to noisy training data and still generalize near-optimally, showing that overfitting can sometimes be benign. Second, they can undergo a period of classical, harmful overfitting -- achieving a perfect fit to training data with near-random performance on test data -- before transitioning ("grokking") to near-optimal generalization later in training. In this work, we show that both of these phenomena provably occur in two-layer ReLU networks trained by GD on XOR cluster data where a constant fraction of the training labels are flipped. In this setting, we show that after the first step of GD, the network achieves 100% training accuracy, perfectly fitting the noisy labels in the training data, but achieves near-random test accuracy. At a later training step, the network achieves near-optimal test accuracy while still fitting the random labels in the training data, exhibiting a "grokking" phenomenon. This provides the first theoretical result of benign overfitting in neural network classification when the data distribution is not linearly separable. Our proofs rely on analyzing the feature learning process under GD, which reveals that the network implements a non-generalizable linear classifier after one step and gradually learns generalizable features in later steps.

We develop an econometric framework integrating heavy-tailed Student's t distributions with behavioral probability weighting while preserving infinite divisibility. Using 432{,}752 observations across 86 assets (2004--2024), we demonstrate Student's t specifications outperform Gaussian models in 88.4\% of cases. Bounded probability-weighting transformations preserve mathematical properties required for dynamic pricing. Gaussian models underestimate 99\% Value-at-Risk by 19.7\% versus 3.2\% for our specification. Joint estimation procedures identify tail and behavioral parameters with established asymptotic properties. Results provide robust inference for asset-pricing applications where heavy tails and behavioral distortions coexist.

Language model alignment methods such as reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) have led to impressive advances in language model capabilities, but are limited by a widely observed phenomenon known as overoptimization, where the quality of the language model degrades over the course of the alignment process. As the model optimizes performance with respect to an offline reward model, it overfits to inaccuracies and drifts away from preferred responses covered by the data. To discourage such distribution shift, KL-regularization is widely employed in existing offline alignment methods, but overoptimization continues to harm performance. Lending theoretical insight into the source of these empirical observations, we first show that the KL-regularization is too weak to prevent overfitting, then raise the following question: is it possible to design an efficient algorithm that is provably robust to overoptimization? We address this question with a new algorithm for offline alignment, χ^2-Preference Optimization (χPO). χPO is a one-line change to Direct Preference Optimization (DPO; Rafailov et al., 2023), which only involves modifying the logarithmic link function in the DPO objective. Despite this minimal change, χPO implicitly implements the principle of pessimism in the face of uncertainty via regularization with the χ^2-divergence -- which quantifies uncertainty more effectively than KL-regularization -- and provably alleviates overoptimization, achieving sample-complexity guarantees based on single-policy concentrability -- the gold standard in offline reinforcement learning. χPO's simplicity and strong guarantees make it the first practical and general-purpose offline alignment algorithm that is provably robust to overoptimization.

A fundamental question in modern machine learning is why large, over-parameterized models, such as deep neural networks and transformers, tend to generalize well, even when their number of parameters far exceeds the number of training samples. We investigate this phenomenon through the lens of information theory, grounded in universal learning theory. Specifically, we study a Bayesian mixture learner with log-loss and (almost) uniform prior over an expansive hypothesis class. Our key result shows that the learner's regret is not determined by the overall size of the hypothesis class, but rather by the cumulative probability of all models that are close, in Kullback-Leibler divergence distance, to the true data-generating process. We refer to this cumulative probability as the weight of the hypothesis. This leads to a natural notion of model simplicity: simple models are those with large weight and thus require fewer samples to generalize, while complex models have small weight and need more data. This perspective provides a rigorous and intuitive explanation for why over-parameterized models often avoid overfitting: the presence of simple hypotheses allows the posterior to concentrate on them when supported by the data. We further bridge theory and practice by recalling that stochastic gradient descent with Langevin dynamics samples from the correct posterior distribution, enabling our theoretical learner to be approximated using standard machine learning methods combined with ensemble learning. Our analysis yields non-uniform regret bounds and aligns with key practical concepts such as flat minima and model distillation. The results apply broadly across online, batch, and supervised learning settings, offering a unified and principled understanding of the generalization behavior of modern AI systems.

Epistemic Uncertainty is a measure of the lack of knowledge of a learner which diminishes with more evidence. While existing work focuses on using the variance of the Bayesian posterior due to parameter uncertainty as a measure of epistemic uncertainty, we argue that this does not capture the part of lack of knowledge induced by model misspecification. We discuss how the excess risk, which is the gap between the generalization error of a predictor and the Bayes predictor, is a sound measure of epistemic uncertainty which captures the effect of model misspecification. We thus propose a principled framework for directly estimating the excess risk by learning a secondary predictor for the generalization error and subtracting an estimate of aleatoric uncertainty, i.e., intrinsic unpredictability. We discuss the merits of this novel measure of epistemic uncertainty, and highlight how it differs from variance-based measures of epistemic uncertainty and addresses its major pitfall. Our framework, Direct Epistemic Uncertainty Prediction (DEUP) is particularly interesting in interactive learning environments, where the learner is allowed to acquire novel examples in each round. Through a wide set of experiments, we illustrate how existing methods in sequential model optimization can be improved with epistemic uncertainty estimates from DEUP, and how DEUP can be used to drive exploration in reinforcement learning. We also evaluate the quality of uncertainty estimates from DEUP for probabilistic image classification and predicting synergies of drug combinations.

We seek to understand fundamental tradeoffs between the accuracy of prior information that a learner has on a given problem and its learning performance. We introduce the notion of prioritized risk, which differs from traditional notions of minimax and Bayes risk by allowing us to study such fundamental tradeoffs in settings where reality does not necessarily conform to the learner's prior. We present a general reduction-based approach for extending classical minimax lower-bound techniques in order to lower bound the prioritized risk for statistical estimation problems. We also introduce a novel generalization of Fano's inequality (which may be of independent interest) for lower bounding the prioritized risk in more general settings involving unbounded losses. We illustrate the ability of our framework to provide insights into tradeoffs between prior information and learning performance for problems in estimation, regression, and reinforcement learning.

Deep learning has recently revealed the existence of scaling laws, demonstrating that model performance follows predictable trends based on dataset and model sizes. Inspired by these findings and fascinating phenomena emerging in the over-parameterized regime, we examine a parallel direction: do similar scaling laws govern predictive uncertainties in deep learning? In identifiable parametric models, such scaling laws can be derived in a straightforward manner by treating model parameters in a Bayesian way. In this case, for example, we obtain O(1/N) contraction rates for epistemic uncertainty with respect to the number of data N. However, in over-parameterized models, these guarantees do not hold, leading to largely unexplored behaviors. In this work, we empirically show the existence of scaling laws associated with various measures of predictive uncertainty with respect to dataset and model sizes. Through experiments on vision and language tasks, we observe such scaling laws for in- and out-of-distribution predictive uncertainty estimated through popular approximate Bayesian inference and ensemble methods. Besides the elegance of scaling laws and the practical utility of extrapolating uncertainties to larger data or models, this work provides strong evidence to dispel recurring skepticism against Bayesian approaches: "In many applications of deep learning we have so much data available: what do we need Bayes for?". Our findings show that "so much data" is typically not enough to make epistemic uncertainty negligible.

Training compute is increasingly outpacing the availability of high-quality data. This shifts the central challenge from optimal compute allocation to extracting maximum value from limited data. The widely adopted Chinchilla scaling law assumes every training token is unique. This limits its ability to guide pretraining decisions in data-constrained regimes. We model the excess loss under repetition with a simple additive overfitting penalty and find that it accurately describes model behavior. Our scaling law yields qualitatively new compute-optimal allocation advice. Beyond a point, further repetition is counterproductive and compute is better spent on model capacity. We show that following our law's recommended configuration improves performance in data-constrained regimes. Finally, because our one-parameter form isolates overfitting in a single coefficient, it enables direct comparison across training configurations. As a case study, we show that strong weight decay (λ=1.0) reduces this coefficient by approximately 70%, providing a scaling-law explanation for recent findings that optimal weight decay in data-constrained regimes is an order of magnitude larger than standard practice.

Modern neural networks are known to give overconfident prediction for out-of-distribution inputs when deployed in the open world. It is common practice to leverage a surrogate outlier dataset to regularize the model during training, and recent studies emphasize the role of uncertainty in designing the sampling strategy for outlier dataset. However, the OOD samples selected solely based on predictive uncertainty can be biased towards certain types, which may fail to capture the full outlier distribution. In this work, we empirically show that diversity is critical in sampling outliers for OOD detection performance. Motivated by the observation, we propose a straightforward and novel sampling strategy named DOS (Diverse Outlier Sampling) to select diverse and informative outliers. Specifically, we cluster the normalized features at each iteration, and the most informative outlier from each cluster is selected for model training with absent category loss. With DOS, the sampled outliers efficiently shape a globally compact decision boundary between ID and OOD data. Extensive experiments demonstrate the superiority of DOS, reducing the average FPR95 by up to 25.79% on CIFAR-100 with TI-300K.

Overfitting negatively impacts the generalization ability of deep neural networks (DNNs) in both natural and adversarial training. Existing methods struggle to consistently address different types of overfitting, typically designing strategies that focus separately on either natural or adversarial patterns. In this work, we adopt a unified perspective by solely focusing on natural patterns to explore different types of overfitting. Specifically, we examine the memorization effect in DNNs and reveal a shared behaviour termed over-memorization, which impairs their generalization capacity. This behaviour manifests as DNNs suddenly becoming high-confidence in predicting certain training patterns and retaining a persistent memory for them. Furthermore, when DNNs over-memorize an adversarial pattern, they tend to simultaneously exhibit high-confidence prediction for the corresponding natural pattern. These findings motivate us to holistically mitigate different types of overfitting by hindering the DNNs from over-memorization natural patterns. To this end, we propose a general framework, Distraction Over-Memorization (DOM), which explicitly prevents over-memorization by either removing or augmenting the high-confidence natural patterns. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed method in mitigating overfitting across various training paradigms.

Membership inference attacks (MIAs) aim to determine whether a specific sample was used to train a predictive model. Knowing this may indeed lead to a privacy breach. Most MIAs, however, make use of the model's prediction scores - the probability of each output given some input - following the intuition that the trained model tends to behave differently on its training data. We argue that this is a fallacy for many modern deep network architectures. Consequently, MIAs will miserably fail since overconfidence leads to high false-positive rates not only on known domains but also on out-of-distribution data and implicitly acts as a defense against MIAs. Specifically, using generative adversarial networks, we are able to produce a potentially infinite number of samples falsely classified as part of the training data. In other words, the threat of MIAs is overestimated, and less information is leaked than previously assumed. Moreover, there is actually a trade-off between the overconfidence of models and their susceptibility to MIAs: the more classifiers know when they do not know, making low confidence predictions, the more they reveal the training data.

Large language models are pre-trained on ever-growing token budgets under the assumption that better pre-training performance translates to improved downstream models. In this work, we challenge this assumption and show that extended pre-training can make models harder to fine-tune, leading to degraded final performance. We term this phenomenon catastrophic overtraining. For example, the instruction-tuned OLMo-1B model pre-trained on 3T tokens leads to over 2% worse performance on multiple standard LLM benchmarks than its 2.3T token counterpart. Through controlled experiments and theoretical analysis, we show that catastrophic overtraining arises from a systematic increase in the broad sensitivity of pre-trained parameters to modifications, including but not limited to fine-tuning. Our findings call for a critical reassessment of pre-training design that considers the downstream adaptability of the model.

A 20% rise in car crashes in 2021 compared to 2020 has been observed as a result of increased distraction and drowsiness. Drowsy and distracted driving are the cause of 45% of all car crashes. As a means to decrease drowsy and distracted driving, detection methods using computer vision can be designed to be low-cost, accurate, and minimally invasive. This work investigated the use of the vision transformer to outperform state-of-the-art accuracy from 3D-CNNs. Two separate transformers were trained for drowsiness and distractedness. The drowsy video transformer model was trained on the National Tsing-Hua University Drowsy Driving Dataset (NTHU-DDD) with a Video Swin Transformer model for 10 epochs on two classes -- drowsy and non-drowsy simulated over 10.5 hours. The distracted video transformer was trained on the Driver Monitoring Dataset (DMD) with Video Swin Transformer for 50 epochs over 9 distraction-related classes. The accuracy of the drowsiness model reached 44% and a high loss value on the test set, indicating overfitting and poor model performance. Overfitting indicates limited training data and applied model architecture lacked quantifiable parameters to learn. The distracted model outperformed state-of-the-art models on DMD reaching 97.5%, indicating that with sufficient data and a strong architecture, transformers are suitable for unfit driving detection. Future research should use newer and stronger models such as TokenLearner to achieve higher accuracy and efficiency, merge existing datasets to expand to detecting drunk driving and road rage to create a comprehensive solution to prevent traffic crashes, and deploying a functioning prototype to revolutionize the automotive safety industry.

The trade-off between robustness and accuracy has been widely studied in the adversarial literature. Although still controversial, the prevailing view is that this trade-off is inherent, either empirically or theoretically. Thus, we dig for the origin of this trade-off in adversarial training and find that it may stem from the improperly defined robust error, which imposes an inductive bias of local invariance -- an overcorrection towards smoothness. Given this, we advocate employing local equivariance to describe the ideal behavior of a robust model, leading to a self-consistent robust error named SCORE. By definition, SCORE facilitates the reconciliation between robustness and accuracy, while still handling the worst-case uncertainty via robust optimization. By simply substituting KL divergence with variants of distance metrics, SCORE can be efficiently minimized. Empirically, our models achieve top-rank performance on RobustBench under AutoAttack. Besides, SCORE provides instructive insights for explaining the overfitting phenomenon and semantic input gradients observed on robust models. Code is available at https://github.com/P2333/SCORE.

In value-based reinforcement learning methods such as deep Q-learning, function approximation errors are known to lead to overestimated value estimates and suboptimal policies. We show that this problem persists in an actor-critic setting and propose novel mechanisms to minimize its effects on both the actor and the critic. Our algorithm builds on Double Q-learning, by taking the minimum value between a pair of critics to limit overestimation. We draw the connection between target networks and overestimation bias, and suggest delaying policy updates to reduce per-update error and further improve performance. We evaluate our method on the suite of OpenAI gym tasks, outperforming the state of the art in every environment tested.

When fine-tuning pre-trained Large Language Models (LLMs) to align with human values and intentions, maximizing the estimated reward can lead to superior performance, but it also introduces potential risks due to deviations from the reference model's intended behavior. Most existing methods typically introduce KL divergence to constrain deviations between the trained model and the reference model; however, this may not be sufficient in certain applications that require tight risk control. In this paper, we introduce Risk-aware Direct Preference Optimization (Ra-DPO), a novel approach that incorporates risk-awareness by employing a class of nested risk measures. This approach formulates a constrained risk-aware advantage function maximization problem and then converts the Bradley-Terry model into a token-level representation. The objective function maximizes the likelihood of the policy while suppressing the deviation between a trained model and the reference model using a sequential risk ratio, thereby enhancing the model's risk-awareness. Experimental results across three open-source datasets: IMDb Dataset, Anthropic HH Dataset, and AlpacaEval, demonstrate the proposed method's superior performance in balancing alignment performance and model drift. Our code is opensourced at https://github.com/zlj123-max/Ra-DPO.

Machine learning models are often trained to predict the outcome resulting from a human decision. For example, if a doctor decides to test a patient for disease, will the patient test positive? A challenge is that historical decision-making determines whether the outcome is observed: we only observe test outcomes for patients doctors historically tested. Untested patients, for whom outcomes are unobserved, may differ from tested patients along observed and unobserved dimensions. We propose a Bayesian model class which captures this setting. The purpose of the model is to accurately estimate risk for both tested and untested patients. Estimating this model is challenging due to the wide range of possibilities for untested patients. To address this, we propose two domain constraints which are plausible in health settings: a prevalence constraint, where the overall disease prevalence is known, and an expertise constraint, where the human decision-maker deviates from purely risk-based decision-making only along a constrained feature set. We show theoretically and on synthetic data that domain constraints improve parameter inference. We apply our model to a case study of cancer risk prediction, showing that the model's inferred risk predicts cancer diagnoses, its inferred testing policy captures known public health policies, and it can identify suboptimalities in test allocation. Though our case study is in healthcare, our analysis reveals a general class of domain constraints which can improve model estimation in many settings.

In this research, we aim to compare the performance of different classical machine learning models and neural networks in identifying the frequency of occurrence of each digit in a given number. It has various applications in machine learning and computer vision, e.g. for obtaining the frequency of a target object in a visual scene. We considered this problem as a hybrid of classification and regression tasks. We carefully create our own datasets to observe systematic differences between different methods. We evaluate each of the methods using different metrics across multiple datasets.The metrics of performance used were the root mean squared error and mean absolute error for regression evaluation, and accuracy for classification performance evaluation. We observe that decision trees and random forests overfit to the dataset, due to their inherent bias, and are not able to generalize well. We also observe that the neural networks significantly outperform the classical machine learning models in terms of both the regression and classification metrics for both the 6-digit and 10-digit number datasets. Dataset and code are available on github.

In this work, we explore the possibility of utilizing transfer learning techniques to address the financial portfolio optimization problem. We introduce a novel concept called "transfer risk", within the optimization framework of transfer learning. A series of numerical experiments are conducted from three categories: cross-continent transfer, cross-sector transfer, and cross-frequency transfer. In particular, 1. a strong correlation between the transfer risk and the overall performance of transfer learning methods is established, underscoring the significance of transfer risk as a viable indicator of "transferability"; 2. transfer risk is shown to provide a computationally efficient way to identify appropriate source tasks in transfer learning, enhancing the efficiency and effectiveness of the transfer learning approach; 3. additionally, the numerical experiments offer valuable new insights for portfolio management across these different settings.

In the field of decision trees, most previous studies have difficulty ensuring the statistical optimality of a prediction of new data and suffer from overfitting because trees are usually used only to represent prediction functions to be constructed from given data. In contrast, some studies, including this paper, used the trees to represent stochastic data observation processes behind given data. Moreover, they derived the statistically optimal prediction, which is robust against overfitting, based on the Bayesian decision theory by assuming a prior distribution for the trees. However, these studies still have a problem in computing this Bayes optimal prediction because it involves an infeasible summation for all division patterns of a feature space, which is represented by the trees and some parameters. In particular, an open problem is a summation with respect to combinations of division axes, i.e., the assignment of features to inner nodes of the tree. We solve this by a Markov chain Monte Carlo method, whose step size is adaptively tuned according to a posterior distribution for the trees.

Reward models play a key role in aligning language model applications towards human preferences. However, this setup creates an incentive for the language model to exploit errors in the reward model to achieve high estimated reward, a phenomenon often termed reward hacking. A natural mitigation is to train an ensemble of reward models, aggregating over model outputs to obtain a more robust reward estimate. We explore the application of reward ensembles to alignment at both training time (through reinforcement learning) and inference time (through reranking). First, we show that reward models are underspecified: reward models that perform similarly in-distribution can yield very different rewards when used in alignment, due to distribution shift. Second, underspecification results in overoptimization, where alignment to one reward model does not improve reward as measured by another reward model trained on the same data. Third, overoptimization is mitigated by the use of reward ensembles, and ensembles that vary by their pretraining seeds lead to better generalization than ensembles that differ only by their fine-tuning seeds, with both outperforming individual reward models. However, even pretrain reward ensembles do not eliminate reward hacking: we show several qualitative reward hacking phenomena that are not mitigated by ensembling because all reward models in the ensemble exhibit similar error patterns.

Adversarial examples cause neural networks to produce incorrect outputs with high confidence. Although adversarial training is one of the most effective forms of defense against adversarial examples, unfortunately, a large gap exists between test accuracy and training accuracy in adversarial training. In this paper, we identify Adversarial Feature Overfitting (AFO), which may cause poor adversarially robust generalization, and we show that adversarial training can overshoot the optimal point in terms of robust generalization, leading to AFO in our simple Gaussian model. Considering these theoretical results, we present soft labeling as a solution to the AFO problem. Furthermore, we propose Adversarial Vertex mixup (AVmixup), a soft-labeled data augmentation approach for improving adversarially robust generalization. We complement our theoretical analysis with experiments on CIFAR10, CIFAR100, SVHN, and Tiny ImageNet, and show that AVmixup significantly improves the robust generalization performance and that it reduces the trade-off between standard accuracy and adversarial robustness.

The popular Q-learning algorithm is known to overestimate action values under certain conditions. It was not previously known whether, in practice, such overestimations are common, whether they harm performance, and whether they can generally be prevented. In this paper, we answer all these questions affirmatively. In particular, we first show that the recent DQN algorithm, which combines Q-learning with a deep neural network, suffers from substantial overestimations in some games in the Atari 2600 domain. We then show that the idea behind the Double Q-learning algorithm, which was introduced in a tabular setting, can be generalized to work with large-scale function approximation. We propose a specific adaptation to the DQN algorithm and show that the resulting algorithm not only reduces the observed overestimations, as hypothesized, but that this also leads to much better performance on several games.

Reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) is a standard approach for fine-tuning large language models to follow instructions. As part of this process, learned reward models are used to approximately model human preferences. However, as imperfect representations of the "true" reward, these learned reward models are susceptible to overoptimization. Gao et al. (2023) studied this phenomenon in a synthetic human feedback setup with a significantly larger "gold" reward model acting as the true reward (instead of humans) and showed that overoptimization remains a persistent problem regardless of the size of the proxy reward model and training data used. Using a similar setup, we conduct a systematic study to evaluate the efficacy of using ensemble-based conservative optimization objectives, specifically worst-case optimization (WCO) and uncertainty-weighted optimization (UWO), for mitigating reward model overoptimization when using two optimization methods: (a) best-of-n sampling (BoN) (b) proximal policy optimization (PPO). We additionally extend the setup of Gao et al. (2023) to include 25% label noise to better mirror real-world conditions. Both with and without label noise, we find that conservative optimization practically eliminates overoptimization and improves performance by up to 70% for BoN sampling. For PPO, ensemble-based conservative optimization always reduces overoptimization and outperforms single reward model optimization. Moreover, combining it with a small KL penalty successfully prevents overoptimization at no performance cost. Overall, our results demonstrate that ensemble-based conservative optimization can effectively counter overoptimization.

Machine learning models are often used to inform real world risk assessment tasks: predicting consumer default risk, predicting whether a person suffers from a serious illness, or predicting a person's risk to appear in court. Given multiple models that perform almost equally well for a prediction task, to what extent do predictions vary across these models? If predictions are relatively consistent for similar models, then the standard approach of choosing the model that optimizes a penalized loss suffices. But what if predictions vary significantly for similar models? In machine learning, this is referred to as predictive multiplicity i.e. the prevalence of conflicting predictions assigned by near-optimal competing models. In this paper, we present a framework for measuring predictive multiplicity in probabilistic classification (predicting the probability of a positive outcome). We introduce measures that capture the variation in risk estimates over the set of competing models, and develop optimization-based methods to compute these measures efficiently and reliably for convex empirical risk minimization problems. We demonstrate the incidence and prevalence of predictive multiplicity in real-world tasks. Further, we provide insight into how predictive multiplicity arises by analyzing the relationship between predictive multiplicity and data set characteristics (outliers, separability, and majority-minority structure). Our results emphasize the need to report predictive multiplicity more widely.

Although AI systems have been applied in various fields and achieved impressive performance, their safety and reliability are still a big concern. This is especially important for safety-critical tasks. One shared characteristic of these critical tasks is their risk sensitivity, where small mistakes can cause big consequences and even endanger life. There are several factors that could be guidelines for the successful deployment of AI systems in sensitive tasks: (i) failure detection and out-of-distribution (OOD) detection; (ii) overfitting identification; (iii) uncertainty quantification for predictions; (iv) robustness to data perturbations. These factors are also challenges of current AI systems, which are major blocks for building safe and reliable AI. Specifically, the current AI algorithms are unable to identify common causes for failure detection. Furthermore, additional techniques are required to quantify the quality of predictions. All these contribute to inaccurate uncertainty quantification, which lowers trust in predictions. Hence obtaining accurate model uncertainty quantification and its further improvement are challenging. To address these issues, many techniques have been proposed, such as regularization methods and learning strategies. As vision and language are the most typical data type and have many open source benchmark datasets, this thesis will focus on vision-language data processing for tasks like classification, image captioning, and vision question answering. In this thesis, we aim to build a safeguard by further developing current techniques to ensure the accurate model uncertainty for safety-critical tasks.

Machine unlearning (MU) seeks to eliminate the influence of specific training examples from deployed models. As large language models (LLMs) become widely used, managing risks arising from insufficient forgetting or utility loss is increasingly crucial. Current MU techniques lack effective mechanisms for evaluating and controlling these risks, hindering the selection of strategies that appropriately balance safety and utility, and raising trust concerns surrounding the "right to be forgotten." To address these issues, we propose FROC, a unified framework with Risk-Optimized Control for machine unlearning in LLMs. FROC is built around a conformal-style risk-control formulation that expresses a user-specified risk budget on unlearning behavior. This probability-based constraint enables FROC to compare MU strategies, identify feasible operating regions, and guide hyperparameter selection according to desired trade-offs between forgetting sufficiency and utility preservation. To operationalize this constraint, FROC introduces a smoothly varying continuous risk model that aggregates forgetting deficiency and utility degradation into a single configuration-level score. Building on conformal risk analysis, FROC computes (1) the Conformal Unlearning Risk (CUR), a data-driven estimated value on the probability that forgotten samples continue to influence model predictions, and (2) risk-controlled configuration sets, which identify unlearning hyperparameters that are valid under the specified risk budget. Experiments across multiple LLM MU methods demonstrate that FROC produces stable, interpretable risk landscapes and reveals consistent relationships between unlearning configurations, semantic shift, and utility impact. FROC reframes MU as a controllable, risk-aware process and offers a practical foundation for managing unlearning behavior in large-scale LLM deployments.

Training classifiers is difficult with severe class imbalance, but many rare events are the culmination of a sequence with much more common intermediate outcomes. For example, in online marketing a user first sees an ad, then may click on it, and finally may make a purchase; estimating the probability of purchases is difficult because of their rarity. We show both theoretically and through data experiments that the more abundant data in earlier steps may be leveraged to improve estimation of probabilities of rare events. We present PRESTO, a relaxation of the proportional odds model for ordinal regression. Instead of estimating weights for one separating hyperplane that is shifted by separate intercepts for each of the estimated Bayes decision boundaries between adjacent pairs of categorical responses, we estimate separate weights for each of these transitions. We impose an L1 penalty on the differences between weights for the same feature in adjacent weight vectors in order to shrink towards the proportional odds model. We prove that PRESTO consistently estimates the decision boundary weights under a sparsity assumption. Synthetic and real data experiments show that our method can estimate rare probabilities in this setting better than both logistic regression on the rare category, which fails to borrow strength from more abundant categories, and the proportional odds model, which is too inflexible.

Anomaly-based Intrusion Detection System (IDS) has been a hot research topic because of its ability to detect new threats rather than only memorized signatures threats of signature-based IDS. Especially after the availability of advanced technologies that increase the number of hacking tools and increase the risk impact of an attack. The problem of any anomaly-based model is its high false-positive rate. The high false-positive rate is the reason why anomaly IDS is not commonly applied in practice. Because anomaly-based models classify an unseen pattern as a threat where it may be normal but not included in the training dataset. This type of problem is called overfitting where the model is not able to generalize. Optimizing Anomaly-based models by having a big training dataset that includes all possible normal cases may be an optimal solution but could not be applied in practice. Although we can increase the number of training samples to include much more normal cases, still we need a model that has more ability to generalize. In this research paper, we propose applying deep model instead of traditional models because it has more ability to generalize. Thus, we will obtain less false-positive by using big data and deep model. We made a comparison between machine learning and deep learning algorithms in the optimization of anomaly-based IDS by decreasing the false-positive rate. We did an experiment on the NSL-KDD benchmark and compared our results with one of the best used classifiers in traditional learning in IDS optimization. The experiment shows 10% lower false-positive by using deep learning instead of traditional learning.

Supervised learning is often affected by a covariate shift in which the marginal distributions of instances (covariates x) of training and testing samples p_tr(x) and p_te(x) are different but the label conditionals coincide. Existing approaches address such covariate shift by either using the ratio p_te(x)/p_tr(x) to weight training samples (reweighted methods) or using the ratio p_tr(x)/p_te(x) to weight testing samples (robust methods). However, the performance of such approaches can be poor under support mismatch or when the above ratios take large values. We propose a minimax risk classification (MRC) approach for covariate shift adaptation that avoids such limitations by weighting both training and testing samples. In addition, we develop effective techniques that obtain both sets of weights and generalize the conventional kernel mean matching method. We provide novel generalization bounds for our method that show a significant increase in the effective sample size compared with reweighted methods. The proposed method also achieves enhanced classification performance in both synthetic and empirical experiments.

Assessing the capabilities and risks of frontier AI systems is a critical area of research, and recent work has shown that repeated sampling from models can dramatically increase both. For instance, repeated sampling has been shown to increase their capabilities, such as solving difficult math and coding problems, but it has also been shown to increase their potential for harm, such as being jailbroken. Such results raise a crucial question for both capability and safety forecasting: how can one accurately predict a model's behavior when scaled to a massive number of attempts, given a vastly smaller sampling budget? This question is directly relevant to model providers, who serve hundreds of millions of users daily, and to governmental regulators, who seek to prevent harms. To answer this questions, we make three contributions. First, we find that standard methods for fitting these laws suffer from statistical shortcomings that hinder predictive accuracy, especially in data-limited scenarios. Second, we remedy these shortcomings by introducing a robust estimation framework, which uses a beta-binomial distribution to generate more accurate predictions from limited data. Third, we propose a dynamic sampling strategy that allocates a greater budget to harder problems. Combined, these innovations enable more reliable prediction of rare risks and capabilities at a fraction of the computational cost.

Overparametrization often helps improve the generalization performance. This paper proposes a dual view of overparametrization suggesting that downsampling may also help generalize. Motivated by this dual view, we characterize two out-of-sample prediction risks of the sketched ridgeless least square estimator in the proportional regime masymp n asymp p, where m is the sketching size, n the sample size, and p the feature dimensionality. Our results reveal the statistical role of downsampling. Specifically, downsampling does not always hurt the generalization performance, and may actually help improve it in some cases. We identify the optimal sketching sizes that minimize the out-of-sample prediction risks, and find that the optimally sketched estimator has stabler risk curves that eliminates the peaks of those for the full-sample estimator. We then propose a practical procedure to empirically identify the optimal sketching size. Finally, we extend our results to cover central limit theorems and misspecified models. Numerical studies strongly support our theory.

When deploying machine learning models in high-stakes real-world environments such as health care, it is crucial to accurately assess the uncertainty concerning a model's prediction on abnormal inputs. However, there is a scarcity of literature analyzing this problem on medical data, especially on mixed-type tabular data such as Electronic Health Records. We close this gap by presenting a series of tests including a large variety of contemporary uncertainty estimation techniques, in order to determine whether they are able to identify out-of-distribution (OOD) patients. In contrast to previous work, we design tests on realistic and clinically relevant OOD groups, and run experiments on real-world medical data. We find that almost all techniques fail to achieve convincing results, partly disagreeing with earlier findings.

Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) have shown remarkable reasoning capabilities, yet they often suffer from overthinking, expending redundant computational steps on simple problems, or underthinking, failing to explore sufficient reasoning paths despite inherent capabilities. These issues lead to inefficiencies and potential inaccuracies, limiting practical deployment in resource-constrained settings. Existing methods to mitigate overthinking, such as suppressing reflective keywords or adjusting reasoning length, may inadvertently induce underthinking, compromising accuracy. Therefore, we propose ReBalance, a training-free framework that achieves efficient reasoning with balanced thinking. ReBalance leverages confidence as a continuous indicator of reasoning dynamics, identifying overthinking through high confidence variance and underthinking via consistent overconfidence. By aggregating hidden states from a small-scale dataset into reasoning mode prototypes, we compute a steering vector to guide LRMs' reasoning trajectories. A dynamic control function modulates this vector's strength and direction based on real-time confidence, pruning redundancy during overthinking, and promoting exploration during underthinking. Extensive experiments conducted on four models ranging from 0.5B to 32B, and across nine benchmarks in math reasoning, general question answering, and coding tasks demonstrate that ReBalance effectively reduces output redundancy while improving accuracy, offering a general, training-free, and plug-and-play strategy for efficient and robust LRM deployment. Code is available at https://github.com/yu-lin-li/ReBalance .

Most bandit algorithms assume that the reward variances or their upper bounds are known, and that they are the same for all arms. This naturally leads to suboptimal performance and higher regret due to variance overestimation. On the other hand, underestimated reward variances may lead to linear regret due to committing early to a suboptimal arm. This motivated prior works on variance-adaptive frequentist algorithms, which have strong instance-dependent regret bounds but cannot incorporate prior knowledge on reward variances. We lay foundations for the Bayesian setting, which incorporates prior knowledge. This results in lower regret in practice, due to using the prior in the algorithm design, and also improved regret guarantees. Specifically, we study Gaussian bandits with {unknown heterogeneous reward variances}, and develop a Thompson sampling algorithm with prior-dependent Bayes regret bounds. We achieve lower regret with lower reward variances and more informative priors on them, which is precisely why we pay only for what is uncertain. This is the first result of its kind. Finally, we corroborate our theory with extensive experiments, which show the superiority of our variance-adaptive Bayesian algorithm over prior frequentist approaches. We also show that our approach is robust to model misspecification and can be applied with estimated priors.

Deep neural networks are susceptible to adversarial attacks, which can compromise their performance and accuracy. Adversarial Training (AT) has emerged as a popular approach for protecting neural networks against such attacks. However, a key challenge of AT is robust overfitting, where the network's robust performance on test data deteriorates with further training, thus hindering generalization. Motivated by the concept of active forgetting in the brain, we introduce a novel learning paradigm called "Forget to Mitigate Overfitting (FOMO)". FOMO alternates between the forgetting phase, which randomly forgets a subset of weights and regulates the model's information through weight reinitialization, and the relearning phase, which emphasizes learning generalizable features. Our experiments on benchmark datasets and adversarial attacks show that FOMO alleviates robust overfitting by significantly reducing the gap between the best and last robust test accuracy while improving the state-of-the-art robustness. Furthermore, FOMO provides a better trade-off between standard and robust accuracy, outperforming baseline adversarial methods. Finally, our framework is robust to AutoAttacks and increases generalization in many real-world scenarios.

Risk scores are simple classification models that let users make quick risk predictions by adding and subtracting a few small numbers. These models are widely used in medicine and criminal justice, but are difficult to learn from data because they need to be calibrated, sparse, use small integer coefficients, and obey application-specific operational constraints. In this paper, we present a new machine learning approach to learn risk scores. We formulate the risk score problem as a mixed integer nonlinear program, and present a cutting plane algorithm for non-convex settings to efficiently recover its optimal solution. We improve our algorithm with specialized techniques to generate feasible solutions, narrow the optimality gap, and reduce data-related computation. Our approach can fit risk scores in a way that scales linearly in the number of samples, provides a certificate of optimality, and obeys real-world constraints without parameter tuning or post-processing. We benchmark the performance benefits of this approach through an extensive set of numerical experiments, comparing to risk scores built using heuristic approaches. We also discuss its practical benefits through a real-world application where we build a customized risk score for ICU seizure prediction in collaboration with the Massachusetts General Hospital.

Out-of-distribution (OOD) prediction is often approached by restricting models to causal or invariant covariates, avoiding non-causal spurious associations that may be unstable across environments. Despite its theoretical appeal, this strategy frequently underperforms empirical risk minimization (ERM) in practice. We investigate the source of this gap and show that such failures naturally arise when only a subset of the true causes of the outcome is observed. In these settings, non-causal spurious covariates can serve as informative proxies for unobserved causes and substantially improve prediction, except under distribution shifts that break these proxy relationships. Consequently, the optimal set of predictive covariates is neither universal nor necessarily exhibits invariant relationships with the outcome across all environments, but instead depends on the specific type of shift encountered. Crucially, we observe that different covariate shifts induce distinct, observable signatures in the covariate distribution itself. Moreover, these signatures can be extracted from unlabeled data in the target OOD environment and used to assess when proxy covariates remain reliable and when they fail. Building on this observation, we propose an environment-adaptive covariate selection (EACS) algorithm that maps environment-level covariate summaries to environment-specific covariate sets, while allowing the incorporation of prior causal knowledge as constraints. Across simulations and applied datasets, EACS consistently outperforms static causal, invariant, and ERM-based predictors under diverse distribution shifts.

Language models are increasingly capable and are being rapidly deployed on a population-level scale. As a result, the safety of these models is increasingly high-stakes. Fortunately, advances in alignment have significantly reduced the likelihood of harmful model outputs. However, when models are queried billions of times in a day, even rare worst-case behaviors will occur. Current safety evaluations focus on capturing the distribution of inputs that yield harmful outputs. These evaluations disregard the probabilistic nature of models and their tail output behavior. To measure this tail risk, we propose a method to efficiently estimate the probability of harmful outputs for any input query. Instead of naive brute-force sampling from the target model, where harmful outputs could be rare, we operationalize importance sampling by creating unsafe versions of the target model. These unsafe versions enable sample-efficient estimation by making harmful outputs more probable. On benchmarks measuring misuse and misalignment, these estimates match brute-force Monte Carlo estimates using 10-20x fewer samples. For example, we can estimate probability of harmful outputs on the order of 10^-4 with just 500 samples. Additionally, we find that these harmfulness estimates can reveal the sensitivity of models to perturbations in model input and predict deployment risks. Our work demonstrates that accurate rare-event estimation is both critical and feasible for safety evaluations. Code is available at https://github.com/rangell/LMTailRisk

As AI labs approach a data ceiling where compute capacity outpaces the rate of new high-quality text generation, language model pretraining is shifting toward a data-constrained, compute-abundant regime that demands productive multi-epoch training on fixed corpora. Standard autoregressive (AR) pretraining overfits severely in this setting, reaching its optimum early and then continuously deteriorating. We investigate training-time data augmentation as a regularizer to mitigate this overfitting and enable productive training for hundreds of epochs on the same data. We introduce three orthogonal categories of augmentation for AR pretraining: token-level noise (masking, random replacement), sequence permutations (right-to-left prediction, Fill-in-the-Middle), and target offset prediction (x_{t+i} for i > 1). Through systematic ablations, we find that individual augmentations delay overfitting and lower validation loss relative to the baseline, with random token replacement achieving the best minimum loss among individual methods. Combining augmentation categories further lowers the minimum validation loss. Our experiments demonstrate that data augmentations mitigate AR pretraining's data inefficiency and offer a promising solution to the data-constrained regime~\footnote{All code and data are available at https://github.com/ michaelchen-lab/ data-augmentations-for-pretraining.

We propose a novel method to capture data points near decision boundary in neural network that are often referred to a specific type of uncertainty. In our approach, we sought to perform uncertainty estimation based on the idea of adversarial attack method. In this paper, uncertainty estimates are derived from the input perturbations, unlike previous studies that provide perturbations on the model's parameters as in Bayesian approach. We are able to produce uncertainty with couple of perturbations on the inputs. Interestingly, we apply the proposed method to datasets derived from blockchain. We compare the performance of model uncertainty with the most recent uncertainty methods. We show that the proposed method has revealed a significant outperformance over other methods and provided less risk to capture model uncertainty in machine learning.

This study presents PARROT (Persuasion and Agreement Robustness Rating of Output Truth), a robustness focused framework designed to measure the degradation in accuracy that occurs under social pressure exerted on users through authority and persuasion in large language models (LLMs) the phenomenon of sycophancy (excessive conformity). PARROT (i) isolates causal effects by comparing the neutral version of the same question with an authoritatively false version using a double-blind evaluation, (ii) quantifies confidence shifts toward the correct and imposed false responses using log-likelihood-based calibration tracking, and (iii) systematically classifies failure modes (e.g., robust correct, sycophantic agreement, reinforced error, stubborn error, self-correction, etc.) using an eight-state behavioral taxonomy. We evaluated 22 models using 1,302 MMLU-style multiple-choice questions across 13 domains and domain-specific authority templates. Findings show marked heterogeneity: advanced models (e.g., GPT-5, GPT-4.1, Claude Sonnet 4.5) exhibit low "follow rates" (leq 11%, GPT-5: 4\%) and minimal accuracy loss, while older/smaller models show severe epistemic collapse (GPT-4: 80\%, Qwen 2.5-1.5B: 94\%). The danger is not limited to response changes; weak models reduce confidence in the correct response while increasing confidence in the imposed incorrect response. While international law and global knowledge at the domain level exhibit high fragility, elementary mathematics is relatively resilient. Consequently, we argue that the goal of "resistance to overfitting pressure" should be addressed as a primary objective alongside accuracy, harm avoidance, and privacy for safe deployment in the real world.

Catastrophic overfitting (CO) presents a significant challenge in single-step adversarial training (AT), manifesting as highly distorted deep neural networks (DNNs) that are vulnerable to multi-step adversarial attacks. However, the underlying factors that lead to the distortion of decision boundaries remain unclear. In this work, we delve into the specific changes within different DNN layers and discover that during CO, the former layers are more susceptible, experiencing earlier and greater distortion, while the latter layers show relative insensitivity. Our analysis further reveals that this increased sensitivity in former layers stems from the formation of pseudo-robust shortcuts, which alone can impeccably defend against single-step adversarial attacks but bypass genuine-robust learning, resulting in distorted decision boundaries. Eliminating these shortcuts can partially restore robustness in DNNs from the CO state, thereby verifying that dependence on them triggers the occurrence of CO. This understanding motivates us to implement adaptive weight perturbations across different layers to hinder the generation of pseudo-robust shortcuts, consequently mitigating CO. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our proposed method, Layer-Aware Adversarial Weight Perturbation (LAP), can effectively prevent CO and further enhance robustness.

Capturing aleatoric uncertainty is a critical part of many machine learning systems. In deep learning, a common approach to this end is to train a neural network to estimate the parameters of a heteroscedastic Gaussian distribution by maximizing the logarithm of the likelihood function under the observed data. In this work, we examine this approach and identify potential hazards associated with the use of log-likelihood in conjunction with gradient-based optimizers. First, we present a synthetic example illustrating how this approach can lead to very poor but stable parameter estimates. Second, we identify the culprit to be the log-likelihood loss, along with certain conditions that exacerbate the issue. Third, we present an alternative formulation, termed β-NLL, in which each data point's contribution to the loss is weighted by the β-exponentiated variance estimate. We show that using an appropriate β largely mitigates the issue in our illustrative example. Fourth, we evaluate this approach on a range of domains and tasks and show that it achieves considerable improvements and performs more robustly concerning hyperparameters, both in predictive RMSE and log-likelihood criteria.

In this work, we study the performance of sub-gradient method (SubGM) on a natural nonconvex and nonsmooth formulation of low-rank matrix recovery with ell_1-loss, where the goal is to recover a low-rank matrix from a limited number of measurements, a subset of which may be grossly corrupted with noise. We study a scenario where the rank of the true solution is unknown and over-estimated instead. The over-estimation of the rank gives rise to an over-parameterized model in which there are more degrees of freedom than needed. Such over-parameterization may lead to overfitting, or adversely affect the performance of the algorithm. We prove that a simple SubGM with small initialization is agnostic to both over-parameterization and noise in the measurements. In particular, we show that small initialization nullifies the effect of over-parameterization on the performance of SubGM, leading to an exponential improvement in its convergence rate. Moreover, we provide the first unifying framework for analyzing the behavior of SubGM under both outlier and Gaussian noise models, showing that SubGM converges to the true solution, even under arbitrarily large and arbitrarily dense noise values, and--perhaps surprisingly--even if the globally optimal solutions do not correspond to the ground truth. At the core of our results is a robust variant of restricted isometry property, called Sign-RIP, which controls the deviation of the sub-differential of the ell_1-loss from that of an ideal, expected loss. As a byproduct of our results, we consider a subclass of robust low-rank matrix recovery with Gaussian measurements, and show that the number of required samples to guarantee the global convergence of SubGM is independent of the over-parameterized rank.

We expect the generalization error to improve with more samples from a similar task, and to deteriorate with more samples from an out-of-distribution (OOD) task. In this work, we show a counter-intuitive phenomenon: the generalization error of a task can be a non-monotonic function of the number of OOD samples. As the number of OOD samples increases, the generalization error on the target task improves before deteriorating beyond a threshold. In other words, there is value in training on small amounts of OOD data. We use Fisher's Linear Discriminant on synthetic datasets and deep networks on computer vision benchmarks such as MNIST, CIFAR-10, CINIC-10, PACS and DomainNet to demonstrate and analyze this phenomenon. In the idealistic setting where we know which samples are OOD, we show that these non-monotonic trends can be exploited using an appropriately weighted objective of the target and OOD empirical risk. While its practical utility is limited, this does suggest that if we can detect OOD samples, then there may be ways to benefit from them. When we do not know which samples are OOD, we show how a number of go-to strategies such as data-augmentation, hyper-parameter optimization, and pre-training are not enough to ensure that the target generalization error does not deteriorate with the number of OOD samples in the dataset.

Text-to-Image (T2I) models have achieved remarkable success in generating visual content from text inputs. Although multiple safety alignment strategies have been proposed to prevent harmful outputs, they often lead to overly cautious behavior -- rejecting even benign prompts -- a phenomenon known as over-refusal that reduces the practical utility of T2I models. Despite over-refusal having been observed in practice, there is no large-scale benchmark that systematically evaluates this phenomenon for T2I models. In this paper, we present an automatic workflow to construct synthetic evaluation data, resulting in OVERT (OVEr-Refusal evaluation on Text-to-image models), the first large-scale benchmark for assessing over-refusal behaviors in T2I models. OVERT includes 4,600 seemingly harmful but benign prompts across nine safety-related categories, along with 1,785 genuinely harmful prompts (OVERT-unsafe) to evaluate the safety-utility trade-off. Using OVERT, we evaluate several leading T2I models and find that over-refusal is a widespread issue across various categories (Figure 1), underscoring the need for further research to enhance the safety alignment of T2I models without compromising their functionality. As a preliminary attempt to reduce over-refusal, we explore prompt rewriting; however, we find it often compromises faithfulness to the meaning of the original prompts. Finally, we demonstrate the flexibility of our generation framework in accommodating diverse safety requirements by generating customized evaluation data adapting to user-defined policies.

When facing data with imbalanced classes or groups, practitioners follow an intriguing strategy to achieve best results. They throw away examples until the classes or groups are balanced in size, and then perform empirical risk minimization on the reduced training set. This opposes common wisdom in learning theory, where the expected error is supposed to decrease as the dataset grows in size. In this work, we leverage extreme value theory to address this apparent contradiction. Our results show that the tails of the data distribution play an important role in determining the worst-group-accuracy of linear classifiers. When learning on data with heavy tails, throwing away data restores the geometric symmetry of the resulting classifier, and therefore improves its worst-group generalization.

Risk management in finance involves recognizing, evaluating, and addressing financial risks to maintain stability and ensure regulatory compliance. Extracting relevant insights from extensive regulatory documents is a complex challenge requiring advanced retrieval and language models. This paper introduces RiskData, a dataset specifically curated for finetuning embedding models in risk management, and RiskEmbed, a finetuned embedding model designed to improve retrieval accuracy in financial question-answering systems. The dataset is derived from 94 regulatory guidelines published by the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) from 1991 to 2024. We finetune a state-of-the-art sentence BERT embedding model to enhance domain-specific retrieval performance typically for Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) systems. Experimental results demonstrate that RiskEmbed significantly outperforms general-purpose and financial embedding models, achieving substantial improvements in ranking metrics. By open-sourcing both the dataset and the model, we provide a valuable resource for financial institutions and researchers aiming to develop more accurate and efficient risk management AI solutions.

The estimation of loss distributions for dynamic portfolios requires the simulation of scenarios representing realistic joint dynamics of their components. We propose a novel data-driven approach for simulating realistic, high-dimensional multi-asset scenarios, focusing on accurately representing tail risk for a class of static and dynamic trading strategies. We exploit the joint elicitability property of Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) to design a Generative Adversarial Network (GAN) that learns to simulate price scenarios preserving these tail risk features. We demonstrate the performance of our algorithm on synthetic and market data sets through detailed numerical experiments. In contrast to previously proposed data-driven scenario generators, our proposed method correctly captures tail risk for a broad class of trading strategies and demonstrates strong generalization capabilities. In addition, combining our method with principal component analysis of the input data enhances its scalability to large-dimensional multi-asset time series, setting our framework apart from the univariate settings commonly considered in the literature.

Label Smoothing (LS) is widely adopted to curb overconfidence in neural network predictions and enhance generalization. However, previous research shows that LS can force feature representations into excessively tight clusters, eroding intra-class distinctions. More recent findings suggest that LS also induces overconfidence in misclassifications, yet the precise mechanism remained unclear. In this work, we decompose the loss term introduced by LS, revealing two key components: (i) a regularization term that functions only when the prediction is correct, and (ii) an error-enhancement term that emerges under misclassifications. This latter term compels the model to reinforce incorrect predictions with exaggerated certainty, further collapsing the feature space. To address these issues, we propose Max Suppression (MaxSup), which uniformly applies the intended regularization to both correct and incorrect predictions by penalizing the top-1 logit instead of the ground-truth logit. Through feature analyses, we show that MaxSup restores intra-class variation and sharpens inter-class boundaries. Extensive experiments on image classification and downstream tasks confirm that MaxSup is a more robust alternative to LS. Code is available at: https://github.com/ZhouYuxuanYX/Maximum-Suppression-Regularization.

Accurate estimation of uncertainty in deep learning is critical for deploying models in high-stakes domains such as medical diagnosis and autonomous decision-making, where overconfident predictions can lead to harmful outcomes. In practice, understanding the reason behind a model's uncertainty and the type of uncertainty it represents can support risk-aware decisions, enhance user trust, and guide additional data collection. However, many existing methods only address a single type of uncertainty or require modifications and retraining of the base model, making them difficult to adopt in real-world systems. We introduce CUPID (Comprehensive Uncertainty Plug-in estImation moDel), a general-purpose module that jointly estimates aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty without modifying or retraining the base model. CUPID can be flexibly inserted into any layer of a pretrained network. It models aleatoric uncertainty through a learned Bayesian identity mapping and captures epistemic uncertainty by analyzing the model's internal responses to structured perturbations. We evaluate CUPID across a range of tasks, including classification, regression, and out-of-distribution detection. The results show that it consistently delivers competitive performance while offering layer-wise insights into the origins of uncertainty. By making uncertainty estimation modular, interpretable, and model-agnostic, CUPID supports more transparent and trustworthy AI. Related code and data are available at https://github.com/a-Fomalhaut-a/CUPID.

Humans are prone to cognitive distortions -- biased thinking patterns that lead to exaggerated responses to specific stimuli, albeit in very different contexts. This paper demonstrates that advanced Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) exhibit similar tendencies. While these models are designed to respond queries under safety mechanism, they sometimes reject harmless queries in the presence of certain visual stimuli, disregarding the benign nature of their contexts. As the initial step in investigating this behavior, we identify three types of stimuli that trigger the oversensitivity of existing MLLMs: Exaggerated Risk, Negated Harm, and Counterintuitive Interpretation. To systematically evaluate MLLMs' oversensitivity to these stimuli, we propose the Multimodal OverSenSitivity Benchmark (MOSSBench). This toolkit consists of 300 manually collected benign multimodal queries, cross-verified by third-party reviewers (AMT). Empirical studies using MOSSBench on 20 MLLMs reveal several insights: (1). Oversensitivity is prevalent among SOTA MLLMs, with refusal rates reaching up to 76% for harmless queries. (2). Safer models are more oversensitive: increasing safety may inadvertently raise caution and conservatism in the model's responses. (3). Different types of stimuli tend to cause errors at specific stages -- perception, intent reasoning, and safety judgement -- in the response process of MLLMs. These findings highlight the need for refined safety mechanisms that balance caution with contextually appropriate responses, improving the reliability of MLLMs in real-world applications. We make our project available at https://turningpoint-ai.github.io/MOSSBench/.

Calibrated uncertainty estimates in machine learning are crucial to many fields such as autonomous vehicles, medicine, and weather and climate forecasting. While there is extensive literature on uncertainty calibration for classification, the classification findings do not always translate to regression. As a result, modern models for predicting uncertainty in regression settings typically produce uncalibrated and overconfident estimates. To address these gaps, we present a calibration method for regression settings that does not assume a particular uncertainty distribution over the error: Calibrating Regression Uncertainty Distributions Empirically (CRUDE). CRUDE makes the weaker assumption that error distributions have a constant arbitrary shape across the output space, shifted by predicted mean and scaled by predicted standard deviation. We detail a theoretical connection between CRUDE and conformal inference. Across an extensive set of regression tasks, CRUDE demonstrates consistently sharper, better calibrated, and more accurate uncertainty estimates than state-of-the-art techniques.