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Aug 12

Protection Is (Nearly) All You Need: Structural Protection Dominates Scoring in Globally Capped KV Eviction

We study KV cache eviction under a shared globally capped decode-time harness. Seven policies (LRU, H2O, SnapKV, StreamingLLM, Ada-KV, QUEST, Random) share a prompt-boundary vulnerability: without structural protection, they collapse to near-zero quality on six pure-transformer models (F1leq0.064). Reserving 10\% of cache at each boundary recovers 69--90\% of the C{=}2{,}048 reference-ceiling quality on seven LongBench models at C{=}256 (13\% retention); a ten-model panel spans 68--98\%. An attention-mass pilot (Qwen2.5-3B, N{=}30) suggests why: the position-0 sink holds {sim}75% of prefix mass, while other boundary tokens sit near {sim}0.41{times} uniform expectation, so attention scorers retain the sink but still drop structurally critical tokens. With protection, simplified score-isolation variants are TOST-equivalent to LRU at K{=}32 (Δ{=}0.02); at K{=}8, attention policies pairwise converge yet beat LRU by 0.011--0.021 F1 across C{=}256 and C{=}512. Faithful Ada-KV/QUEST add {sim}0.03--0.04 F1 on Mistral-7B and Phi-3.5 beyond simplified variants. A NIAH-32K regime-transfer pilot on Qwen3-4B (decode vs.\ prefill, C{in}{512,2048}) shows near-identical protection lifts (ratio 0.99--1.00). At 64K, protection helps but recovery is modest; faithful per-head scoring matches full-cache ceiling on Gemma-3-4B at 6.3\% retention only when the model already supports strong 64K retrieval without eviction. Overall: protection dominates; scoring differences are secondary once boundaries are guarded; per-head allocation gives a further modest gain.

  • 1 authors
·
May 17

MISA: Mixture of Indexer Sparse Attention for Long-Context LLM Inference

DeepSeek Sparse Attention (DSA) sets the state of the art for fine-grained inference-time sparse attention by introducing a learned token-wise indexer that scores every prefix token and selects the most relevant ones for the main attention. To remain expressive, the indexer uses many query heads (for example, 64 on DeepSeek-V3.2) that share the same selected token set; this multi-head design is precisely what makes the indexer the dominant cost on long contexts. We propose MISA (Mixture of Indexer Sparse Attention), a drop-in replacement for the DSA indexer that treats its indexer heads as a pool of mixture-of-experts. A lightweight router uses cheap block-level statistics to pick a query-dependent subset of only a few active heads, and only those heads run the heavy token-level scoring. This preserves the diversity of the original indexer pool while reducing the per-query cost from scoring every prefix token with every head to scoring it with only a handful of routed heads, plus a negligible router term computed on a small set of pooled keys. We further introduce a hierarchical variant of MISA that uses the routed pass to keep an enlarged candidate set and then re-ranks it with the original DSA indexer to recover the final selected tokens almost exactly. With only eight active heads and no additional training, MISA matches the dense DSA indexer on LongBench across DeepSeek-V3.2 and GLM-5 while running with eight and four times fewer indexer heads respectively, and outperforms HISA on average. It also preserves fully green Needle-in-a-Haystack heatmaps up to a 128K-token context and recovers more than 92% of the tokens selected by the DSA indexer per layer. Our TileLang kernel delivers roughly a 3.82 times speedup over DSA's original indexer kernel on a single NVIDIA H200 GPU.

Verification Without Sufficiency: Per-Chunk Filtering Fails on Multi-Hop RAG, and Decomposition Repairs It

Verification for retrieval-augmented generation usually scores each retrieved chunk and drops the ones that fail. We show this cannot work for multi-hop questions, and show what does. Per-chunk scoring assumes one chunk is a sufficient premise for the answer. Multi-hop questions are built so that none is, and the paragraph carrying the answer is the one the question does not name. Entailment scoring reaches 0.643, 0.523 and 0.560 AUC on HotpotQA, 2WikiMultihopQA and MuSiQue, against 0.951 on single-hop SQuAD. Seven controls rule out model capacity, premise length, hypothesis template, decision threshold, retriever, answer-matching criterion and prompt. End to end across three datasets, three generator sizes and two prompts, per-chunk gating is significantly worse than not filtering at all in every cell, and its penalty grows with generator capability. The repair is to condition verification on the decomposed sub-question rather than the original query. Using MuSiQue's gold decomposition, entailment on a later hop rises from 0.546, which is chance, to 0.840, a paired lift of +0.355 with a bootstrap interval of [0.331, 0.382]. An off-the-shelf Qwen2.5-7B decomposer, given the question and the top retrieved paragraph, reaches 0.637 and captures 31% of that ceiling; decomposing without retrieval reaches 0.533, below the original question. Iterative retrieval systems already produce such decompositions and discard them before verifying.

  • 1 authors
·
Jul 31

PerSEval: Assessing Personalization in Text Summarizers

Personalized summarization models cater to individuals' subjective understanding of saliency, as represented by their reading history and current topics of attention. Existing personalized text summarizers are primarily evaluated based on accuracy measures such as BLEU, ROUGE, and METEOR. However, a recent study argued that accuracy measures are inadequate for evaluating the degree of personalization of these models and proposed EGISES, the first metric to evaluate personalized text summaries. It was suggested that accuracy is a separate aspect and should be evaluated standalone. In this paper, we challenge the necessity of an accuracy leaderboard, suggesting that relying on accuracy-based aggregated results might lead to misleading conclusions. To support this, we delve deeper into EGISES, demonstrating both theoretically and empirically that it measures the degree of responsiveness, a necessary but not sufficient condition for degree-of-personalization. We subsequently propose PerSEval, a novel measure that satisfies the required sufficiency condition. Based on the benchmarking of ten SOTA summarization models on the PENS dataset, we empirically establish that -- (i) PerSEval is reliable w.r.t human-judgment correlation (Pearson's r = 0.73; Spearman's rho = 0.62; Kendall's tau = 0.42), (ii) PerSEval has high rank-stability, (iii) PerSEval as a rank-measure is not entailed by EGISES-based ranking, and (iv) PerSEval can be a standalone rank-measure without the need of any aggregated ranking.

  • 5 authors
·
Jun 29, 2024

Can Retrieval Heads See Images? Multimodal Retrieval Heads in Long-Context Vision-Language Models

Large vision-language models increasingly rely on long-context modeling to reason over documents, hour-level videos, and long-horizon agent trajectories, requiring them to locate relevant evidence across interleaved text and images. Prior work has studied this behavior using retrieval heads in large language models, but its copy-based criterion does not directly apply when evidence appears in images. We introduce a multimodal retrieval head detection method that scores attention from question tokens to textual or visual evidence. With this method, we show that multimodal retrieval heads are sparse, intrinsic, and causally important: only 4.4-10.2% of attention heads account for 50% of the positive retrieval-score mass, and masking the top-5% selected heads drops MMLongBench-Doc from 48.2% to 5.7% and SlideVQA from 71.2% to 8.9%, while random-head masking is far less damaging. Further analysis shows that these heads are partly shared across modalities yet remain dynamic within each modality, with image retrieval heads changing more than text retrieval heads as context length and haystack modality change. Without further training, we find that these heads can also be used directly to rank visually rich documents: on MMDocIR, Qwen3-VL-8B selected-head scoring improves Recall@1 by 7.7/7.4 macro/micro points for page retrieval and 6.3/6.8 points for layout retrieval over the strongest reported baseline.

  • 12 authors
·
May 25

AI World Cup 2026: Benchmarking Large Language Models for End-to-End Football Tournament Prediction

Large language models (LLMs) are now regularly asked to forecast real-world events, but comparisons are often difficult because models receive different information, use different tools, and are evaluated under different rules. This paper reports the completed AI World Cup benchmark, in which ten LLM-based assistants made a single pre-tournament forecast of the entire 2026 FIFA World Cup. Every submission used the same tournament snapshot, prompt, JSON schema, and scoring procedure. The forecasts covered group-stage scores, group rankings, the knockout bracket, final placings, confidence values, and short explanations. After all 104 matches had been played, GPT-5.5 Thinking finished first with 744 points, followed by GPT-5.5 with 717, Gemini with 699, and Qwen 3.7 with 687. GPT-5.5 Thinking was also the only model to select Spain, which defeated Argentina 1--0 in the final, as champion. The final ranking was driven mainly by knockout performance: total score was strongly correlated with knockout points (r=0.986), but showed little relationship with group-stage match points (r=0.055), group-standing points (r=-0.103), or their combined pre-knockout score (r=-0.054). Match-level accuracy produced a different ordering. Claude Sonnet 4.6 correctly predicted the largest number of group-stage outcomes (63.89\%) but placed sixth overall. Average self-reported confidence was also unrelated to either outcome accuracy (r=-0.060) or total score (r=-0.067). The results suggest that forecasting a complete tournament tests something different from predicting matches one at a time, while also showing how strongly a bracket-based leaderboard can depend on scoring design. The benchmark materials, raw responses, and scoring code are released to support replication and future extensions.

  • 2 authors
·
Aug 3

Logit-Contribution Scoring Identifies Non-Literal Retrieval Heads

In long-context use, large language models frequently synthesize answers from the meaning of a relevant context span rather than literally copy-pasting them. Identifying which attention heads perform this synthesis matters for interpreting long-context model behavior. Yet existing detectors miss these heads by construction: they reward heads whose attended token matches the generated token, a literal-copy criterion that captures where a head reads but not what it writes through its output-value (OV) circuit, the very mechanism that carries non-literal retrieval. We introduce Logit-Contribution Scoring (LOCOS), a write-aware detector that scores each head by the projection of its OV-circuit output onto the answer-token unembedding direction, contrasting needle and off-needle source positions in a single forward pass. Across three model families (Qwen3, Gemma-3, OLMo-3.1), mean-ablating the top LOCOS heads on the NoLiMa non-literal retrieval benchmark collapses ROUGE-L at lower head counts than prior attention-based detections; on Qwen3-8B, ablating 50 heads drives ROUGE-L from 0.401 to 0.000 while the strongest baseline still retains 0.292. The selected heads are retrieval-specific: parametric recall and arithmetic reasoning stay at baseline under the same ablation. On Qwen3-8B, the same ablation also drops MuSiQue from 0.55 to 0.08 and BABI-Long from 0.62 to 0.20, while a random-heads control stays within 0.05 of baseline.

  • 3 authors
·
Jun 30 2

Auditing Multimodal LLM Raters: Central Tendency Bias in Clinical Ordinal Scoring

Multimodal large language models (LLMs) are increasingly explored as automated evaluators in clinical settings, yet their scoring behavior on ordinal clinical scales remains poorly understood. We benchmark three frontier LLM families against supervised deep learning models for scoring Clock Drawing Test (CDT) images on two public datasets using the Shulman rubric. While fully fine-tuned Vision Transformers achieve the best calibration (MAE 0.52, within-1 accuracy 91%), zero-shot LLMs remain competitive on tolerance-based agreement (GPT-5 MAE 0.67, within-1 accuracy 92%) despite higher absolute error. However, per-score analysis reveals that all three LLM families exhibit a pronounced central tendency effect (systematic endpoint compression): predictions are systematically compressed toward the middle of the scale, with over-prediction at the low end (score 0 to 1) and under-prediction at the high end (score 5 to 4). This effect disproportionately affects the clinically critical extremes where accurate scoring most impacts screening decisions for cognitive impairment. Targeted ablations show that neither few-shot exemplars spanning the full score range nor removing clinical terminology from the prompt eliminates the effect. Our findings extend the LLM-as-a-judge bias literature from NLP evaluation to clinical assessment, and highlight the need for calibration-aware evaluation and post-hoc calibration before deploying LLM-based raters in high-stakes screening workflows.

WorldCupArena: Fine-Grained Evaluation of Language Models and Deep-Research Agents on Football Forecasting

Predicting a football match before kickoff requires more than knowing past results: a model must use changing information and make a clear prediction before the answer is available. We present WorldCupArena, a dynamic benchmark for language models and deep-research agents. The 2026 FIFA World Cup is its first evaluation, and the same process can be reused for future leagues and cups. Before each match, a model either receives a common evidence package or searches for information itself. It predicts the result and score, likely players and events, match statistics, and the outcome of the competition. After the match, these predictions are compared with the recorded result. We report result accuracy, exact-score accuracy, and a scoreline score that gives some credit when a predicted score is close but not exact, together with scores for the other prediction tasks. Across 104 matches and 13 systems, models with similar result accuracy differ more clearly on detailed predictions. Compared with betting-market and human-fan baselines, the best system shows only small gains in result and exact-score accuracy, but a clearer gain in Scoreline. New schedules can be added as they begin, allowing the benchmark to evaluate future models without using outcomes that are already known. Code, prompts, predictions, and evaluation scripts are open sourced at https://github.com/wzk1015/WorldCupArena.

  • 6 authors
·
Jul 19 2

Online Information Acquisition: Hiring Multiple Agents

We investigate the mechanism design problem faced by a principal who hires multiple agents to gather and report costly information. Then, the principal exploits the information to make an informed decision. We model this problem as a game, where the principal announces a mechanism consisting in action recommendations and a payment function, a.k.a. scoring rule. Then, each agent chooses an effort level and receives partial information about an underlying state of nature based on the effort. Finally, the agents report the information (possibly non-truthfully), the principal takes a decision based on this information, and the agents are paid according to the scoring rule. While previous work focuses on single-agent problems, we consider multi-agents settings. This poses the challenge of coordinating the agents' efforts and aggregating correlated information. Indeed, we show that optimal mechanisms must correlate agents' efforts, which introduces externalities among the agents, and hence complex incentive compatibility constraints and equilibrium selection problems. First, we design a polynomial-time algorithm to find an optimal incentive compatible mechanism. Then, we study an online problem, where the principal repeatedly interacts with a group of unknown agents. We design a no-regret algorithm that provides mathcal{O}(T^{2/3}) regret with respect to an optimal mechanism, matching the state-of-the-art bound for single-agent settings.

  • 3 authors
·
Jul 12, 2023 1

Characterizing Mechanisms for Factual Recall in Language Models

Language Models (LMs) often must integrate facts they memorized in pretraining with new information that appears in a given context. These two sources can disagree, causing competition within the model, and it is unclear how an LM will resolve the conflict. On a dataset that queries for knowledge of world capitals, we investigate both distributional and mechanistic determinants of LM behavior in such situations. Specifically, we measure the proportion of the time an LM will use a counterfactual prefix (e.g., "The capital of Poland is London") to overwrite what it learned in pretraining ("Warsaw"). On Pythia and GPT2, the training frequency of both the query country ("Poland") and the in-context city ("London") highly affect the models' likelihood of using the counterfactual. We then use head attribution to identify individual attention heads that either promote the memorized answer or the in-context answer in the logits. By scaling up or down the value vector of these heads, we can control the likelihood of using the in-context answer on new data. This method can increase the rate of generating the in-context answer to 88\% of the time simply by scaling a single head at runtime. Our work contributes to a body of evidence showing that we can often localize model behaviors to specific components and provides a proof of concept for how future methods might control model behavior dynamically at runtime.

  • 3 authors
·
Oct 24, 2023

LLM Swiss Round: Aggregating Multi-Benchmark Performance via Competitive Swiss-System Dynamics

The rapid proliferation of Large Language Models (LLMs) and diverse specialized benchmarks necessitates a shift from fragmented, task-specific metrics to a holistic, competitive ranking system that effectively aggregates performance across multiple ability dimensions. Primarily using static scoring, current evaluation methods are fundamentally limited. They struggle to determine the proper mix ratio across diverse benchmarks, and critically, they fail to capture a model's dynamic competitive fitness or its vulnerability when confronted with sequential, high-stakes tasks. To address this, we introduce the novel Competitive Swiss-System Dynamics (CSD) framework. CSD simulates a multi-round, sequential contest where models are dynamically paired across a curated sequence of benchmarks based on their accumulated win-loss record. And Monte Carlo Simulation (N=100,000 iterations) is used to approximate the statistically robust Expected Win Score (E[S_m]), which eliminates the noise of random pairing and early-round luck. Furthermore, we implement a Failure Sensitivity Analysis by parameterizing the per-round elimination quantity (T_k), which allows us to profile models based on their risk appetite--distinguishing between robust generalists and aggressive specialists. We demonstrate that CSD provides a more nuanced and context-aware ranking than traditional aggregate scoring and static pairwise models, representing a vital step towards risk-informed, next-generation LLM evaluation.

ByteDance-Seed ByteDance Seed
·
Dec 24, 2025 2

FlexMoRE: A Flexible Mixture of Rank-heterogeneous Experts for Efficient Federatedly-trained Large Language Models

Recent advances in mixture-of-experts architectures have shown that individual experts models can be trained federatedly, i.e., in isolation from other experts by using a common base model to facilitate coordination. However, we hypothesize that full-sized experts may not be necessary for all domains and that instead low-rank adapters may be sufficient. Here, we introduce FlexMoRE, a Flexible Mixture of Rank-heterogenous Experts, which may be either full-sized experts or adapters of a suitable rank. We systematically investigate the trade-off between expert rank and downstream task performance by evaluating 6 experts with ranks 2^0 to 2^{14} resulting in experiments covering 150 mixtures (96 with 2 experts, 54 with 7 experts) that are evaluated across 120 tasks. For our experiments, we build on FlexOlmo and turn its pre-trained experts into low-rank versions. Our regression analysis from expert rank to downstream task performance reveals that the best-performing rank is substantially higher for reasoning-heavy benchmarks than for knowledge-heavy benchmarks. These findings on rank sensitivity come with direct implications for memory efficiency: Using optimal ranks, FlexMoRE yields improved downstream task performance (average score 47.18) compared to the baseline FlexOlmo-style mixture of full-sized experts (average score 45.46) at less than one third the parameters (10.75B for FlexMoRE vs. 33.27B for FlexOlmo). All code will be made available.

Multi-Objective Task-Aware Predictor for Image-Text Alignment

Evaluating image-text alignment while reflecting human preferences across multiple aspects is a significant issue for the development of reliable vision-language applications. It becomes especially crucial in real-world scenarios where multiple valid descriptions exist depending on contexts or user needs. However, research progress is hindered by the lack of comprehensive benchmarks and existing evaluation predictors lacking at least one of these key properties: (1) Alignment with human judgments, (2) Long-sequence processing, (3) Inference efficiency, and (4) Applicability to multi-objective scoring. To address these challenges, we propose a plug-and-play architecture to build a robust predictor, MULTI-TAP (Multi-Objective Task-Aware Predictor), capable of both multi and single-objective scoring. MULTI-TAP can produce a single overall score, utilizing a reward head built on top of a large vision-language model (LVLMs). We show that MULTI-TAP is robust in terms of application to different LVLM architectures, achieving significantly higher performance than existing metrics and even on par with the GPT-4o-based predictor, G-VEval, with a smaller size (7-8B). By training a lightweight ridge regression layer on the frozen hidden states of a pre-trained LVLM, MULTI-TAP can produce fine-grained scores for multiple human-interpretable objectives. MULTI-TAP performs better than VisionREWARD, a high-performing multi-objective reward model, in both performance and efficiency on multi-objective benchmarks and our newly released text-image-to-text dataset, EYE4ALL. Our new dataset, consisting of chosen/rejected human preferences (EYE4ALLPref) and human-annotated fine-grained scores across seven dimensions (EYE4ALLMulti), can serve as a foundation for developing more accessible AI systems by capturing the underlying preferences of users, including blind and low-vision (BLV) individuals.

  • 4 authors
·
Oct 1, 2025

Subset Selection Based On Multiple Rankings in the Presence of Bias: Effectiveness of Fairness Constraints for Multiwinner Voting Score Functions

We consider the problem of subset selection where one is given multiple rankings of items and the goal is to select the highest ``quality'' subset. Score functions from the multiwinner voting literature have been used to aggregate rankings into quality scores for subsets. We study this setting of subset selection problems when, in addition, rankings may contain systemic or unconscious biases toward a group of items. For a general model of input rankings and biases, we show that requiring the selected subset to satisfy group fairness constraints can improve the quality of the selection with respect to unbiased rankings. Importantly, we show that for fairness constraints to be effective, different multiwinner score functions may require a drastically different number of rankings: While for some functions, fairness constraints need an exponential number of rankings to recover a close-to-optimal solution, for others, this dependency is only polynomial. This result relies on a novel notion of ``smoothness'' of submodular functions in this setting that quantifies how well a function can ``correctly'' assess the quality of items in the presence of bias. The results in this paper can be used to guide the choice of multiwinner score functions for the subset selection setting considered here; we additionally provide a tool to empirically enable this.

  • 5 authors
·
Jun 16, 2023

Rethinking Evaluation Metric for Probability Estimation Models Using Esports Data

Probability estimation models play an important role in various fields, such as weather forecasting, recommendation systems, and sports analysis. Among several models estimating probabilities, it is difficult to evaluate which model gives reliable probabilities since the ground-truth probabilities are not available. The win probability estimation model for esports, which calculates the win probability under a certain game state, is also one of the fields being actively studied in probability estimation. However, most of the previous works evaluated their models using accuracy, a metric that only can measure the performance of discrimination. In this work, we firstly investigate the Brier score and the Expected Calibration Error (ECE) as a replacement of accuracy used as a performance evaluation metric for win probability estimation models in esports field. Based on the analysis, we propose a novel metric called Balance score which is a simple yet effective metric in terms of six good properties that probability estimation metric should have. Under the general condition, we also found that the Balance score can be an effective approximation of the true expected calibration error which has been imperfectly approximated by ECE using the binning technique. Extensive evaluations using simulation studies and real game snapshot data demonstrate the promising potential to adopt the proposed metric not only for the win probability estimation model for esports but also for evaluating general probability estimation models.

  • 3 authors
·
Sep 12, 2023

Verification of GossipSub in ACL2s

GossipSub is a popular new peer-to-peer network protocol designed to disseminate messages quickly and efficiently by allowing peers to forward the full content of messages only to a dynamically selected subset of their neighboring peers (mesh neighbors) while gossiping about messages they have seen with the rest. Peers decide which of their neighbors to graft or prune from their mesh locally and periodically using a score for each neighbor. Scores are calculated using a score function that depends on mesh-specific parameters, weights and counters relating to a peer's performance in the network. Since a GossipSub network's performance ultimately depends on the performance of its peers, an important question arises: Is the score calculation mechanism effective in weeding out non-performing or even intentionally misbehaving peers from meshes? We answered this question in the negative in our companion paper by reasoning about GossipSub using our formal, official and executable ACL2s model. Based on our findings, we synthesized and simulated attacks against GossipSub which were confirmed by the developers of GossipSub, FileCoin, and Eth2.0, and publicly disclosed in MITRE CVE-2022-47547. In this paper, we present a detailed description of our model. We discuss design decisions, security properties of GossipSub, reasoning about the security properties in context of our model, attack generation and lessons we learnt when writing it.

  • 4 authors
·
Nov 15, 2023

KWBench: Measuring Unprompted Problem Recognition in Knowledge Work

We introduce the first version of KWBench (Knowledge Work Bench), a benchmark for unprompted problem recognition in large language models: can an LLM identify a professional scenario before attempting to solve it. Existing frontier benchmarks have saturated, and most knowledge-work evaluations to date reduce to extraction or task completion against a specification. KWBench targets the step before that: recognizing the governing structure of the situation from raw inputs alone. The benchmark contains 223 tasks sourced from practitioners across acquisitions, contract negotiations, clinical pharmacy, organizational politics, fraud analysis, and incentive design. Each task encodes a formal game-theoretic pattern (principal-agent conflict, signaling, mechanism design failure, strategic omission, coalitional dynamics, strategic interdependence) and carries structured ground truth recording the expert reading of the situation and the anticipated failure modes. Models receive raw data and a task prompt with no indication of problem type. Scoring is a three-tier rubric gated by a mandatory conjunctive check. Mandatory criteria encode the predicted wrong paths. We evaluate 16 models. The best model passes on 27.9% of tasks. The top two models agree on only 31.7% of their passes. Among the top 8, 44 tasks are solved by exactly one model; routing across the top 8 covers 50.7% of the benchmark, nearly double the best single model. Conditional on passing, quality scores converge (approx 83% across models); unconditional scores do not. Same models articulate the relevant game-theoretic concept correctly when asked, then fail to apply it unprompted. We release KWBench to shift how frontier models are evaluated on knowledge work, scoring them on whether they recognize the right problem from the situation alone, not only on how well they execute once the problem has been framed for them.

clio-ai Clio AI
·
Apr 16 2

Are Performance-Optimization Benchmarks Reliably Measuring Coding Agents?

Repository-level performance-optimization benchmarks such as GSO, SWE-Perf and SWE-fficiency evaluate coding agents by applying patches to real repositories and comparing runtime against unoptimized baselines and official reference patches. Their leaderboard scores are increasingly used as evidence of coding-agent progress, but those scores can conflate runtime instability, benchmark-specific scoring rules, and how many tasks are already solved by at least one public submission. We audit these issues across the three benchmarks. First, we replay the official reference patches for 740 code optimization tasks across four common types of Google Cloud machines. Most benchmark tasks can be replayed, but their reference patches satisfy the original benchmark validity rules in every cross-machine replay for only 39/102 GSO tasks, 11/140 SWE-Perf tasks, and 411/498 SWE-fficiency tasks; SWE-Perf is especially fragile because many reference patches produce close-to-zero runtime changes. Second, we show that public submission rankings depend strongly on the benchmark scoring rule. Among eight public submissions shared by GSO and SWE-fficiency, the official rankings disagree on 9 of 28 pairwise submission comparisons, and SWE-fficiency's leaderboard scoring rule assigns the worst ten tasks overly high score weights of 58.5%-82.8%. Third, looking across 10 public submissions for each task, we find that at least one submission matches or beats the reference patch on 85.3% (384/450) of replay-valid GSO and SWE-fficiency tasks, and beats the unoptimized base code on 99.8% (449/450). Our study complements leaderboard scores by identifying tasks with more reliable performance signals, quantifying per-task score contributions, and exposing the remaining performance gaps that are hidden by aggregate rankings.

On Randomness in Agentic Evals

Agentic systems are evaluated on benchmarks where agents interact with environments to solve tasks. Most papers report a pass@1 score computed from a single run per task, assuming this gives a reliable performance estimate. We test this assumption by collecting 60,000 agentic trajectories on SWE-Bench-Verified, spanning three models and two scaffolds. We find substantial variance: single-run pass@1 estimates vary by 2.2 to 6.0 percentage points depending on which run is selected, with standard deviations exceeding 1.5 percentage points even at temperature 0. This variance has critical implications: reported improvements of 2--3 percentage points may reflect evaluation noise rather than genuine algorithmic progress. Through token-level analysis, we show that trajectories diverge early, often within the first few percent of tokens, and that these small differences cascade into different solution strategies. To enable reliable evaluation of agentic systems, we recommend three concrete practices: (1) estimate pass@1 from multiple independent runs per task, especially when measuring small improvements, (2) use statistical power analysis to determine the number of runs needed to detect expected effect sizes, and (3) consider metrics like pass@k (optimistic bound) and pass^k (pessimistic bound) with k>1 to better characterize the full performance envelope. While these practices increase evaluation cost, they are essential for distinguishing genuine scientific progress from statistical noise.

Does RoPE Prevent or Degrade Retrieval Heads? A Mechanistic Analysis Across Model Families

Retrieval heads, attention heads that copy information from earlier context to the current position, have been proposed as the mechanistic substrate for long-context recall. Rotary position embeddings (RoPE) rotate queries and keys by frequencies decaying with a base hyperparameter theta, and a natural hypothesis is that this rotation either prevents retrieval heads from forming or degrades their function. We test both across four open-weight 7-8B models spanning multi-head and grouped-query attention and a 100x range of theta, using paired-seed needle-in-a-haystack tests, layer-clustered permutation, and causal head-masking. (i) Retrieval heads are causally necessary: masking the 87 detected heads in OLMo-2 collapses recall from 1.00 to 0.00, while masking matched random heads has no effect; this replicates in Qwen. (ii) Higher theta does not reduce retrieval-head count (LLaMA-3.1 at theta=500K has 47 heads vs LLaMA-2 at theta=10K with 42), refuting the prevention hypothesis. (iii) The norm-utility relation is family-specific and significant in opposite directions (Qwen d=-0.49, OLMo d=+0.50, both significant; LLaMA null); since OLMo and LLaMA-3.1 share theta=500K yet differ, the effect is not theta-driven. (iv) Building on Chiang and Yogatama (2025), a controlled patch shows that zeroing the lowest-frequency RoPE dimensions of retrieval heads degrades recall dose-dependently (1.00 to 0.18 when 32 of 128 dimensions are zeroed, vs 0.98 for random dimensions); the effect is head-specific and task-specific. The causal variable is RoPE frequency, not norm-utility. The direction holds in all five models patched (OLMo-2, Qwen2.5-7B/14B, Gemma-2, Mistral) across four lineages and two scales. We do not claim cross-model magnitude. Code and a paired-seed harness are released.

  • 1 authors
·
Jun 18

HelpSteer2-Preference: Complementing Ratings with Preferences

Reward models are critical for aligning models to follow instructions, and are typically trained following one of two popular paradigms: Bradley-Terry style or Regression style. However, there is a lack of evidence that either approach is better than the other, when adequately matched for data. This is primarily because these approaches require data collected in different (but incompatible) formats, meaning that adequately matched data is not available in existing public datasets. To tackle this problem, we release preference annotations (designed for Bradley-Terry training) to complement existing ratings (designed for Regression style training) in the HelpSteer2 dataset. To improve data interpretability, preference annotations are accompanied with human-written justifications. Using this data, we conduct the first head-to-head comparison of Bradley-Terry and Regression models when adequately matched for data. Based on insights derived from such a comparison, we propose a novel approach to combine Bradley-Terry and Regression reward modeling. A Llama-3.1-70B-Instruct model tuned with this approach scores 94.1 on RewardBench, emerging top of more than 140 reward models as of 1 Oct 2024. We also demonstrate the effectiveness of this reward model at aligning models to follow instructions in RLHF. We open-source this dataset (CC-BY-4.0 license) at https://huggingface.co/datasets/nvidia/HelpSteer2 and openly release the trained Reward Model at https://huggingface.co/nvidia/Llama-3.1-Nemotron-70B-Reward

  • 8 authors
·
Oct 2, 2024 5

Adaptive Adversaries: A Multi-Turn, Multi-LLM Benchmark for LLM Agent Security

LLM-based agents process external content, exposing them to prompt injection and multi-turn manipulation. Most safety benchmarks evaluate defenders against fixed attack pools collected before evaluation, single-turn or multi-turn. We present a 21-scenario benchmark for adaptive multi-round attacks against memoryless LLM defenders: an autonomous LLM attacker observes prior defender responses and pivots across rounds, while each defender response is evaluated as a fresh interaction. Holding the 21 scenarios, attackers, defenders, and structured-output scoring fixed, restricting scoring to the first attacker turn yields 0-1% attack success rate (ASR); allowing 15 rounds of adaptive attack yields 5.4-14.0%. Pooling three frontier attacker LLMs uncovers 1.4-2.2times as many unique successful attacks as the best single attacker, and the generated attacks have low cosine similarity (0.02-0.14) to attacks in existing benchmarks. Claude Opus 4.6 and GPT-5.4 are tied in aggregate (5.4% each; overlapping 95% CIs), but their weaknesses differ sharply: on one scenario Opus reaches 60% ASR (95% CI 36--80%) while GPT-5.4 and Gemini each stay at 7% (CI 1-30%; the gap is preserved in a higher-N replication). 13 of 21 scenarios distinguish at least one defender pair, yet rankings disagree across scenarios (Kendall's W = 0.19). We release the benchmark -- 21 evaluation scenarios, 10 public development scenarios, the orchestrator, baseline harnesses, and a multi-attacker CLI -- plus 945 transcripts from the 3times3 frontier matrix, an attack-replay dataset, and 18{,}422 gpt-oss-20b battles from an open competition's final scoring rounds.

  • 3 authors
·
Jul 19

Demons in the Detail: On Implementing Load Balancing Loss for Training Specialized Mixture-of-Expert Models

This paper revisits the implementation of Load-balancing Loss (LBL) when training Mixture-of-Experts (MoEs) models. Specifically, LBL for MoEs is defined as N_E sum_{i=1}^{N_E} f_i p_i, where N_E is the total number of experts, f_i represents the frequency of expert i being selected, and p_i denotes the average gating score of the expert i. Existing MoE training frameworks usually employ the parallel training strategy so that f_i and the LBL are calculated within a micro-batch and then averaged across parallel groups. In essence, a micro-batch for training billion-scale LLMs normally contains very few sequences. So, the micro-batch LBL is almost at the sequence level, and the router is pushed to distribute the token evenly within each sequence. Under this strict constraint, even tokens from a domain-specific sequence (e.g., code) are uniformly routed to all experts, thereby inhibiting expert specialization. In this work, we propose calculating LBL using a global-batch to loose this constraint. Because a global-batch contains much more diverse sequences than a micro-batch, which will encourage load balance at the corpus level. Specifically, we introduce an extra communication step to synchronize f_i across micro-batches and then use it to calculate the LBL. Through experiments on training MoEs-based LLMs (up to 42.8B total parameters and 400B tokens), we surprisingly find that the global-batch LBL strategy yields excellent performance gains in both pre-training perplexity and downstream tasks. Our analysis reveals that the global-batch LBL also greatly improves the domain specialization of MoE experts.

  • 10 authors
·
Jan 20, 2025 2

TransGAT: Transformer-Based Graph Neural Networks for Multi-Dimensional Automated Essay Scoring

Essay writing is a critical component of student assessment, yet manual scoring is labor-intensive and inconsistent. Automated Essay Scoring (AES) offers a promising alternative, but current approaches face limitations. Recent studies have incorporated Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) into AES using static word embeddings that fail to capture contextual meaning, especially for polysemous words. Additionally, many methods rely on holistic scoring, overlooking specific writing aspects such as grammar, vocabulary, and cohesion. To address these challenges, this study proposes TransGAT, a novel approach that integrates fine-tuned Transformer models with GNNs for analytic scoring. TransGAT combines the contextual understanding of Transformers with the relational modeling strength of Graph Attention Networks (GAT). It performs two-stream predictions by pairing each fine-tuned Transformer (BERT, RoBERTa, and DeBERTaV3) with a separate GAT. In each pair, the first stream generates essay-level predictions, while the second applies GAT to Transformer token embeddings, with edges constructed from syntactic dependencies. The model then fuses predictions from both streams to produce the final analytic score. Experiments on the ELLIPSE dataset show that TransGAT outperforms baseline models, achieving an average Quadratic Weighted Kappa (QWK) of 0.854 across all analytic scoring dimensions. These findings highlight the potential of TransGAT to advance AES systems.

  • 4 authors
·
Aug 31, 2025

AES Systems Are Both Overstable And Oversensitive: Explaining Why And Proposing Defenses

Deep-learning based Automatic Essay Scoring (AES) systems are being actively used by states and language testing agencies alike to evaluate millions of candidates for life-changing decisions ranging from college applications to visa approvals. However, little research has been put to understand and interpret the black-box nature of deep-learning based scoring algorithms. Previous studies indicate that scoring models can be easily fooled. In this paper, we explore the reason behind their surprising adversarial brittleness. We utilize recent advances in interpretability to find the extent to which features such as coherence, content, vocabulary, and relevance are important for automated scoring mechanisms. We use this to investigate the oversensitivity i.e., large change in output score with a little change in input essay content) and overstability i.e., little change in output scores with large changes in input essay content) of AES. Our results indicate that autoscoring models, despite getting trained as "end-to-end" models with rich contextual embeddings such as BERT, behave like bag-of-words models. A few words determine the essay score without the requirement of any context making the model largely overstable. This is in stark contrast to recent probing studies on pre-trained representation learning models, which show that rich linguistic features such as parts-of-speech and morphology are encoded by them. Further, we also find that the models have learnt dataset biases, making them oversensitive. To deal with these issues, we propose detection-based protection models that can detect oversensitivity and overstability causing samples with high accuracies. We find that our proposed models are able to detect unusual attribution patterns and flag adversarial samples successfully.

  • 6 authors
·
Sep 23, 2021

Predicting In-game Actions from Interviews of NBA Players

Sports competitions are widely researched in computer and social science, with the goal of understanding how players act under uncertainty. While there is an abundance of computational work on player metrics prediction based on past performance, very few attempts to incorporate out-of-game signals have been made. Specifically, it was previously unclear whether linguistic signals gathered from players' interviews can add information which does not appear in performance metrics. To bridge that gap, we define text classification tasks of predicting deviations from mean in NBA players' in-game actions, which are associated with strategic choices, player behavior and risk, using their choice of language prior to the game. We collected a dataset of transcripts from key NBA players' pre-game interviews and their in-game performance metrics, totalling in 5,226 interview-metric pairs. We design neural models for players' action prediction based on increasingly more complex aspects of the language signals in their open-ended interviews. Our models can make their predictions based on the textual signal alone, or on a combination with signals from past-performance metrics. Our text-based models outperform strong baselines trained on performance metrics only, demonstrating the importance of language usage for action prediction. Moreover, the models that employ both textual input and past-performance metrics produced the best results. Finally, as neural networks are notoriously difficult to interpret, we propose a method for gaining further insight into what our models have learned. Particularly, we present an LDA-based analysis, where we interpret model predictions in terms of correlated topics. We find that our best performing textual model is most associated with topics that are intuitively related to each prediction task and that better models yield higher correlation with more informative topics.

  • 3 authors
·
Oct 24, 2019

Learning Ordinal Probabilistic Reward from Preferences

Reward models are crucial for aligning large language models (LLMs) with human values and intentions. Existing approaches follow either Generative (GRMs) or Discriminative (DRMs) paradigms, yet both suffer from limitations: GRMs typically demand costly point-wise supervision, while DRMs produce uncalibrated relative scores that lack probabilistic interpretation. To address these challenges, we introduce a novel reward modeling paradigm: Probabilistic Reward Model (PRM). Instead of modeling reward as a deterministic scalar, our approach treats it as a random variable, learning a full probability distribution for the quality of each response. To make this paradigm practical, we present its closed-form, discrete realization: the Ordinal Probabilistic Reward Model (OPRM), which discretizes the quality score into a finite set of ordinal ratings. Building on OPRM, we propose a data-efficient training strategy called Region Flooding Tuning (RgFT). It enables rewards to better reflect absolute text quality by incorporating quality-level annotations, which guide the model to concentrate the probability mass within corresponding rating sub-regions. Experiments on various reward model benchmarks show that our method improves accuracy by 2.9%sim7.4% compared to prior reward models, demonstrating strong performance and data efficiency. Analysis of the score distribution provides evidence that our method captures not only relative rankings but also absolute quality.

  • 9 authors
·
Feb 13

Biases in Expected Goals Models Confound Finishing Ability

Expected Goals (xG) has emerged as a popular tool for evaluating finishing skill in soccer analytics. It involves comparing a player's cumulative xG with their actual goal output, where consistent overperformance indicates strong finishing ability. However, the assessment of finishing skill in soccer using xG remains contentious due to players' difficulty in consistently outperforming their cumulative xG. In this paper, we aim to address the limitations and nuances surrounding the evaluation of finishing skill using xG statistics. Specifically, we explore three hypotheses: (1) the deviation between actual and expected goals is an inadequate metric due to the high variance of shot outcomes and limited sample sizes, (2) the inclusion of all shots in cumulative xG calculation may be inappropriate, and (3) xG models contain biases arising from interdependencies in the data that affect skill measurement. We found that sustained overperformance of cumulative xG requires both high shot volumes and exceptional finishing, including all shot types can obscure the finishing ability of proficient strikers, and that there is a persistent bias that makes the actual and expected goals closer for excellent finishers than it really is. Overall, our analysis indicates that we need more nuanced quantitative approaches for investigating a player's finishing ability, which we achieved using a technique from AI fairness to learn an xG model that is calibrated for multiple subgroups of players. As a concrete use case, we show that (1) the standard biased xG model underestimates Messi's GAX by 17% and (2) Messi's GAX is 27% higher than the typical elite high-shot-volume attacker, indicating that Messi is even a more exceptional finisher than people commonly believed.

  • 2 authors
·
Jan 18, 2024

CDR: Customizable Density Ratios of Strong-over-weak LLMs for Preference Annotation

Preference tuning of large language models (LLMs) relies on high-quality human preference data, which is often expensive and time-consuming to gather. While existing methods can use trained reward models or proprietary model as judges for preference annotation, they have notable drawbacks: training reward models remain dependent on initial human data, and using proprietary model imposes license restrictions that inhibits commercial usage. In this paper, we introduce customized density ratio (CDR), a training-free and highly effective method that leverages off-the-shelf LLMs for preference data annotation. Our approach uses the log-density ratio between a better-aligned LLM and a less aligned LLM as a reward signal. We explores 221 different LLMs pairs and empirically demonstrate that increasing the performance gap between paired LLMs correlates with better reward generalization. Furthermore, we show that tailoring the density ratio reward function with specific criteria and preference exemplars enhances performance across domains and within target areas. In our experiment using density ratio from a pair of Mistral-7B models, CDR achieves a RewardBench score of 82.6, outperforming the best trained reward functions from same model class and demonstrating competitive performance against SoTA models in Safety (91.0) and Reasoning (88.0) domains. We use CDR to annotate an on-policy preference dataset with which we preference tune Llama-3-8B-Instruct with SimPO. Using reward signals from two relatively weak models, our approach pushes Llama-3-8B to achieve a 37.4% (+15.1%) win rate on ArenaHard and a 40.7% (+17.8%) win rate on Length-Controlled AlpacaEval 2.0, along with a score of 8.0 on MT-Bench.

  • 5 authors
·
Nov 4, 2024

Neural Network-Based Score Estimation in Diffusion Models: Optimization and Generalization

Diffusion models have emerged as a powerful tool rivaling GANs in generating high-quality samples with improved fidelity, flexibility, and robustness. A key component of these models is to learn the score function through score matching. Despite empirical success on various tasks, it remains unclear whether gradient-based algorithms can learn the score function with a provable accuracy. As a first step toward answering this question, this paper establishes a mathematical framework for analyzing score estimation using neural networks trained by gradient descent. Our analysis covers both the optimization and the generalization aspects of the learning procedure. In particular, we propose a parametric form to formulate the denoising score-matching problem as a regression with noisy labels. Compared to the standard supervised learning setup, the score-matching problem introduces distinct challenges, including unbounded input, vector-valued output, and an additional time variable, preventing existing techniques from being applied directly. In this paper, we show that with proper designs, the evolution of neural networks during training can be accurately modeled by a series of kernel regression tasks. Furthermore, by applying an early-stopping rule for gradient descent and leveraging recent developments in neural tangent kernels, we establish the first generalization error (sample complexity) bounds for learning the score function with neural networks, despite the presence of noise in the observations. Our analysis is grounded in a novel parametric form of the neural network and an innovative connection between score matching and regression analysis, facilitating the application of advanced statistical and optimization techniques.

  • 3 authors
·
Jan 28, 2024

Cream of the Crop: Harvesting Rich, Scalable and Transferable Multi-Modal Data for Instruction Fine-Tuning

The hypothesis that pretrained large language models (LLMs) necessitate only minimal supervision during the fine-tuning (SFT) stage (Zhou et al., 2024) has been substantiated by recent advancements in data curation and selection research. However, their stability and generalizability are compromised due to the vulnerability to experimental setups and validation protocols, falling short of surpassing random sampling (Diddee & Ippolito, 2024; Xia et al., 2024b). Built upon LLMs, multi-modal LLMs (MLLMs), combined with the sheer token volume and heightened heterogeneity of data sources, amplify both the significance and complexity of data selection. To harvest multi-modal instructional data in a robust and efficient manner, we re-define the granularity of the quality metric by decomposing it into 14 vision-language-related capabilities, and introduce multi-modal rich scorers to evaluate the capabilities of each data candidate. To promote diversity, in light of the inherent objective of the alignment stage, we take interaction style as diversity indicator and use a multi-modal rich styler to identify data instruction patterns. In doing so, our multi-modal rich scorers and styler (mmSSR) guarantee that high-scoring information is conveyed to users in diversified forms. Free from embedding-based clustering or greedy sampling, mmSSR efficiently scales to millions of data with varying budget constraints, supports customization for general or specific capability acquisition, and facilitates training-free generalization to new domains for curation. Across 10+ experimental settings, validated by 14 multi-modal benchmarks, we demonstrate consistent improvements over random sampling, baseline strategies and state-of-the-art selection methods, achieving 99.1% of full performance with only 30% of the 2.6M data.

  • 8 authors
·
Mar 17, 2025

The Alzheimer's Disease Prediction Of Longitudinal Evolution (TADPOLE) Challenge: Results after 1 Year Follow-up

We present the findings of "The Alzheimer's Disease Prediction Of Longitudinal Evolution" (TADPOLE) Challenge, which compared the performance of 92 algorithms from 33 international teams at predicting the future trajectory of 219 individuals at risk of Alzheimer's disease. Challenge participants were required to make a prediction, for each month of a 5-year future time period, of three key outcomes: clinical diagnosis, Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale Cognitive Subdomain (ADAS-Cog13), and total volume of the ventricles. The methods used by challenge participants included multivariate linear regression, machine learning methods such as support vector machines and deep neural networks, as well as disease progression models. No single submission was best at predicting all three outcomes. For clinical diagnosis and ventricle volume prediction, the best algorithms strongly outperform simple baselines in predictive ability. However, for ADAS-Cog13 no single submitted prediction method was significantly better than random guesswork. Two ensemble methods based on taking the mean and median over all predictions, obtained top scores on almost all tasks. Better than average performance at diagnosis prediction was generally associated with the additional inclusion of features from cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) samples and diffusion tensor imaging (DTI). On the other hand, better performance at ventricle volume prediction was associated with inclusion of summary statistics, such as the slope or maxima/minima of biomarkers. TADPOLE's unique results suggest that current prediction algorithms provide sufficient accuracy to exploit biomarkers related to clinical diagnosis and ventricle volume, for cohort refinement in clinical trials for Alzheimer's disease. However, results call into question the usage of cognitive test scores for patient selection and as a primary endpoint in clinical trials.

  • 96 authors
·
Feb 9, 2020

Knowledge Index of Noah's Ark

Knowledge benchmarks for LLMs face three issues: scaling-driven designs that do not operationalize disciplinary representativeness; flat-payment annotation that permits lazy consensus; and unaudited ranking instability under bounded test budgets. We introduce KINA, an 899-item benchmark across 261 fine-grained disciplines, with two formal results. First, we cast representativeness as a coverage-style objective over expert-elicited anchors and operationalize disciplinary representativeness through a proxy, yielding a (1-1/e) greedy approximation (Proposition 1); the guarantee applies to the proxy, not to population representativeness. Second, we prove a bonus-on-bar tournament weakly FOSD-dominates flat payment in released-review quality, with incentive-compatibility threshold B > Delta C / Delta p_min (Theorem 1). Evaluating 42 models from 13 labs, the top model, Gemini-3.1-Pro-Preview, reaches 53.17%, followed by Claude-Opus-4.6 at 49.92% and GPT-5.4 at 48.55%, leaving substantial headroom below saturation. The full leaderboard shows a tiered structure rather than a smooth total order: a small frontier tier lies above 48%, a dense strong-model tier spans roughly 38-45%, and low-performing models remain only modestly above the 10% chance baseline. Tool augmentation adds up to 5.17 points across the five tool-use evaluations, with gains varying substantially across models. We report bootstrap ranking-stability statistics to make bounded-budget variance explicit and to discourage over-interpretation of adjacent ranks.

  • 27 authors
·
Jun 3

CLIP-ReIdent: Contrastive Training for Player Re-Identification

Sports analytics benefits from recent advances in machine learning providing a competitive advantage for teams or individuals. One important task in this context is the performance measurement of individual players to provide reports and log files for subsequent analysis. During sport events like basketball, this involves the re-identification of players during a match either from multiple camera viewpoints or from a single camera viewpoint at different times. In this work, we investigate whether it is possible to transfer the out-standing zero-shot performance of pre-trained CLIP models to the domain of player re-identification. For this purpose we reformulate the contrastive language-to-image pre-training approach from CLIP to a contrastive image-to-image training approach using the InfoNCE loss as training objective. Unlike previous work, our approach is entirely class-agnostic and benefits from large-scale pre-training. With a fine-tuned CLIP ViT-L/14 model we achieve 98.44 % mAP on the MMSports 2022 Player Re-Identification challenge. Furthermore we show that the CLIP Vision Transformers have already strong OCR capabilities to identify useful player features like shirt numbers in a zero-shot manner without any fine-tuning on the dataset. By applying the Score-CAM algorithm we visualise the most important image regions that our fine-tuned model identifies when calculating the similarity score between two images of a player.

  • 3 authors
·
Mar 21, 2023

MM-RLHF: The Next Step Forward in Multimodal LLM Alignment

Despite notable advancements in Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs), most state-of-the-art models have not undergone thorough alignment with human preferences. This gap exists because current alignment research has primarily achieved progress in specific areas (e.g., hallucination reduction), while the broader question of whether aligning models with human preferences can systematically enhance MLLM capability remains largely unexplored. To this end, we introduce MM-RLHF, a dataset containing 120k fine-grained, human-annotated preference comparison pairs. This dataset represents a substantial advancement over existing resources, offering superior size, diversity, annotation granularity, and quality. Leveraging this dataset, we propose several key innovations to improve both the quality of reward models and the efficiency of alignment algorithms. Notably, we introduce a Critique-Based Reward Model, which generates critiques of model outputs before assigning scores, offering enhanced interpretability and more informative feedback compared to traditional scalar reward mechanisms. Additionally, we propose Dynamic Reward Scaling, a method that adjusts the loss weight of each sample according to the reward signal, thereby optimizing the use of high-quality comparison pairs. Our approach is rigorously evaluated across 10 distinct dimensions and 27 benchmarks, with results demonstrating significant and consistent improvements in model performance. Specifically, fine-tuning LLaVA-ov-7B with MM-RLHF and our alignment algorithm leads to a 19.5% increase in conversational abilities and a 60% improvement in safety. We have open-sourced the preference dataset, reward model, training and evaluation code, as well as reward modeling and safety benchmarks. For more details, please visit our project page: https://mm-rlhf.github.io.

  • 20 authors
·
Feb 14, 2025 5

Personalized RewardBench: Evaluating Reward Models with Human Aligned Personalization

Pluralistic alignment has emerged as a critical frontier in the development of Large Language Models (LLMs), with reward models (RMs) serving as a central mechanism for capturing diverse human values. While benchmarks for general response quality are prevalent, evaluating how well reward models account for individual user preferences remains an open challenge. To bridge this gap, we introduce Personalized RewardBench, a novel benchmark designed to rigorously assess reward models' capacity to model personalized preferences. We construct chosen and rejected response pairs based on strict adherence to (or violation of) user-specific rubrics, ensuring that preference distinctions are uniquely tailored to the individual. In particular, human evaluations confirm that the primary discriminative factor between pairs is strictly personal preference, with both responses maintaining high general quality (e.g., correctness, relevance and helpfulness). Extensive testing reveals that existing state-of-the-art reward models struggle significantly with personalization, peaking at an accuracy of just 75.94%. Crucially, because an effective reward model benchmark should predict a reward model's performance on downstream tasks, we conduct experiments demonstrating that our benchmark exhibits a significantly higher correlation with downstream performance in both Best-of-N (BoN) sampling and Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) compared to existing baselines. These findings establish Personalized RewardBench as a robust and accurate proxy for evaluating reward models' performance in downstream applications.

ucdavis UC Davis
·
Apr 7 2

An analytical framework for the Levine hats problem: new strategies, bounds and generalizations

We study the Levine hat problem, a classic combinatorial puzzle introduced by Lionel Levine in 2010. This problem involves a game in which n geq 2 players, each seeing an infinite stack of hats on each of their teammates' heads but not on their own, must simultaneously guess the index of a black hat on their own stack. If one of the players fails to do so, the team loses collectively. The players must therefore come up with a good strategy before the game starts. While the optimal winning probability V_{n} remains unknown even for n=2, we make three key advances. First, we develop a novel geometric framework for representing strategies through measurable functions, providing a new expression of V_{n} and a unified treatment of the game for finite and for infinite stacks via integral formulations. Secondly, we construct a new strategy K_{5} that reaches the conjectured optimal probability of victory : 0.35. We also show that K_{5} is part of a larger class of strategies that allow us to improve current bounds and resolve conjectured inequalities. Finally, we introduce and entirely solve a continuous generalization of the problem, demonstrating that extending to uncountable hat stacks increases the optimal winning probability to exactly 1/2. This generalization naturally leads to a broader and smoother strategic framework, within which we also describe how to compute optimal responses to a range of strategies.

  • 5 authors
·
Aug 3, 2025

MultiLoKo: a multilingual local knowledge benchmark for LLMs spanning 31 languages

We present MultiLoKo, a new benchmark for evaluating multilinguality in LLMs covering 31 languages. MultiLoKo consists of three partitions: a main partition consisting of 500 questions per language, separately sourced to be locally relevant to the specific language, and two translated partitions, containing human-authored translations from 30 non-English languages to English and vice versa. For comparison, we also release corresponding machine-authored translations. The data is equally distributed over two splits: a dev split and a blind, out-of-distribution test split. MultiLoKo can be used to study a variety of questions regarding the multilinguality of LLMs as well as meta-questions about multilingual benchmark creation. We compute MultiLoKo scores for 11 base and chat models marketed to be multilingual and study their average performance, their performance parity across languages, how much their ability to answer questions depends on the question language, and which languages are most difficult. None of the models we studied performs well on MultiLoKo, as indicated by low average scores as well as large differences between the best and worst scoring languages. Furthermore, we find a substantial effect of the question language, indicating sub-optimal knowledge transfer between languages. Lastly, we find that using local vs English-translated data can result in differences more than 20 points for the best performing models, drastically change the estimated difficulty of some languages. For using machines instead of human translations, we find a weaker effect on ordering of language difficulty, a larger difference in model rankings, and a substantial drop in estimated performance for all models.

  • 2 authors
·
Apr 14, 2025

Structured Proper Loss Geometries for Multiclass Classification: Theory and Controlled Empirical Evaluation

Strictly proper scoring rules identify the true conditional class distribution at population level, but their curvature can alter optimization and finite-sample behavior. We study three multiclass objectives: a class-aware quadratic Bregman score (CAPM), a strongly convex generator with constrained log-cosh ridges (HPG), and an HPG objective with an annealed probability-margin penalty (APMS). CAPM is treated as a structured instance of established quadratic scoring-rule theory. We derive conditional-regret, curvature, range, and logit-gradient bounds for CAPM and HPG, and prove exact penalty-range and conditional-target displacement bounds for APMS. Controlled five-seed experiments use Digits, Wisconsin breast cancer, and synthetic confusion and long-tail problems under clean labels, symmetric and pair-flip corruption, class imbalance, calibration evaluation, input corruption, and first-order adversarial perturbations. The candidates are close to cross-entropy on clean data and show descriptive gains in some noisy-label cells, but the five-seed comparisons are interpreted descriptively rather than as significance evidence. The selected noisy-label baselines perform better on Digits with 40% symmetric label noise, and explicit prior-adjustment methods perform better in the 30:1 synthetic long-tail experiment. Ablations do not show a consistent benefit from the candidate-specific graph, ridge, or margin components. The mathematical analysis establishes the stated properties, and the experiments delimit the empirical evidence; together they do not support a claim of general superiority.

  • 1 authors
·
Jun 27

Large Language Models Orchestrating Structured Reasoning Achieve Kaggle Grandmaster Level

We introduce Agent K v1.0, an end-to-end autonomous data science agent designed to automate, optimise, and generalise across diverse data science tasks. Fully automated, Agent K v1.0 manages the entire data science life cycle by learning from experience. It leverages a highly flexible structured reasoning framework to enable it to dynamically process memory in a nested structure, effectively learning from accumulated experience stored to handle complex reasoning tasks. It optimises long- and short-term memory by selectively storing and retrieving key information, guiding future decisions based on environmental rewards. This iterative approach allows it to refine decisions without fine-tuning or backpropagation, achieving continuous improvement through experiential learning. We evaluate our agent's apabilities using Kaggle competitions as a case study. Following a fully automated protocol, Agent K v1.0 systematically addresses complex and multimodal data science tasks, employing Bayesian optimisation for hyperparameter tuning and feature engineering. Our new evaluation framework rigorously assesses Agent K v1.0's end-to-end capabilities to generate and send submissions starting from a Kaggle competition URL. Results demonstrate that Agent K v1.0 achieves a 92.5\% success rate across tasks, spanning tabular, computer vision, NLP, and multimodal domains. When benchmarking against 5,856 human Kaggle competitors by calculating Elo-MMR scores for each, Agent K v1.0 ranks in the top 38\%, demonstrating an overall skill level comparable to Expert-level users. Notably, its Elo-MMR score falls between the first and third quartiles of scores achieved by human Grandmasters. Furthermore, our results indicate that Agent K v1.0 has reached a performance level equivalent to Kaggle Grandmaster, with a record of 6 gold, 3 silver, and 7 bronze medals, as defined by Kaggle's progression system.

  • 18 authors
·
Nov 5, 2024 6

Language Models Prefer What They Know: Relative Confidence Estimation via Confidence Preferences

Language models (LMs) should provide reliable confidence estimates to help users detect mistakes in their outputs and defer to human experts when necessary. Asking a language model to assess its confidence ("Score your confidence from 0-1.") is a natural way of evaluating its uncertainty. However, models struggle to provide absolute assessments of confidence (i.e. judging confidence in answering a question independent of other questions) and the coarse-grained scores they produce are not useful for evaluating the correctness of their answers. We propose relative confidence estimation, where we match up questions against each other and ask the model to make relative judgments of confidence ("Which question are you more confident in answering correctly?"). Treating each question as a "player" in a series of matchups against other questions and the model's preferences as match outcomes, we can use rank aggregation methods like Elo rating and Bradley-Terry to translate the model's confidence preferences into confidence scores. We evaluate relative confidence estimation against absolute confidence estimation and self-consistency confidence methods on five state-of-the-art LMs -- GPT-4, GPT-4o, Gemini 1.5 Pro, Claude 3.5 Sonnet, and Llama 3.1 405B -- across 14 challenging STEM, social science, and commonsense reasoning question answering tasks. Our results demonstrate that relative confidence estimation consistently provides more reliable confidence scores than absolute confidence estimation, with average gains of 3.5% in selective classification AUC over direct absolute confidence estimation methods and 1.7% over self-consistency approaches across all models and datasets.

  • 3 authors
·
Feb 3, 2025 2

Personal Salience: Highlighting Is Social, but Individuality Lives in Selection

Social highlighters let people mark passages that matter to them. We ask how much of an individual is recoverable from these naturalistic traces, using a co-readership identity control (the same document highlighted by many users) that holds document and topic fixed and asks whether a person's own history predicts their marks better than another reader's does. We separate generic salience (structure), crowd salience (what others marked), and personal salience (the individual residual). First, highlighting is social: which sentences you mark is predicted far better by the crowd than by structure or by a personal model, and even a well-estimated crowd, an information-privileged baseline that sees others' marks on the same document, beats a frontier LLM twin built from your other-document history; the within-document personal signal is at most a whisper (own-vs-other gap +0.017 by an embedding scorer, small but significant). Second, in sharp contrast, individuality lives in selection: asked which of the already-salient passages are yours, your own history is a strong, leakage-free predictor (gap +0.14). A topic decomposition shows this is largely stable thematic preference: it shrinks ~6-8x against a topically-matched peer, and a thin residual cannot be separated from finer topic. The non-obvious part is an asymmetry: under the same scorer the individual signal is ~6-8x weaker in salience than in selection. Methodologically, naive history-conditioning evaluations leak (the target's own marks enter the profile in ~42% of pairs, inflating personal scores by up to +0.15 AP) and small crowds overstate personalization; our results are leakage-free, use a dense crowd, and a model-matched control. Highlights carry a genuine individual signature, but a thin layer over a strong shared one, surfacing far more in which salient things a person selects than in what is salient.

  • 2 authors
·
Jun 7 1

Impact of a Batter in ODI Cricket Implementing Regression Models from Match Commentary

Cricket, "a Gentleman's Game", is a prominent sport rising worldwide. Due to the rising competitiveness of the sport, players and team management have become more professional with their approach. Prior studies predicted individual performance or chose the best team but did not highlight the batter's potential. On the other hand, our research aims to evaluate a player's impact while considering his control in various circumstances. This paper seeks to understand the conundrum behind this impactful performance by determining how much control a player has over the circumstances and generating the "Effective Runs",a new measure we propose. We first gathered the fundamental cricket data from open-source datasets; however, variables like pitch, weather, and control were not readily available for all matches. As a result, we compiled our corpus data by analyzing the commentary of the match summaries. This gave us an insight into the particular game's weather and pitch conditions. Furthermore, ball-by-ball inspection from the commentary led us to determine the control of the shots played by the batter. We collected data for the entire One Day International career, up to February 2022, of 3 prominent cricket players: Rohit G Sharma, David A Warner, and Kane S Williamson. Lastly, to prepare the dataset, we encoded, scaled, and split the dataset to train and test Machine Learning Algorithms. We used Multiple Linear Regression (MLR), Polynomial Regression, Support Vector Regression (SVR), Decision Tree Regression, and Random Forest Regression on each player's data individually to train them and predict the Impact the player will have on the game. Multiple Linear Regression and Random Forest give the best predictions accuracy of 90.16 percent and 87.12 percent, respectively.

  • 6 authors
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Feb 22, 2023

ArenaRL: Scaling RL for Open-Ended Agents via Tournament-based Relative Ranking

Reinforcement learning has substantially improved the performance of LLM agents on tasks with verifiable outcomes, but it still struggles on open-ended agent tasks with vast solution spaces (e.g., complex travel planning). Due to the absence of objective ground-truth for these tasks, current RL algorithms largely rely on reward models that assign scalar scores to individual responses. We contend that such pointwise scoring suffers from an inherent discrimination collapse: the reward model struggles to distinguish subtle advantages among different trajectories, resulting in scores within a group being compressed into a narrow range. Consequently, the effective reward signal becomes dominated by noise from the reward model, leading to optimization stagnation. To address this, we propose ArenaRL, a reinforcement learning paradigm that shifts from pointwise scalar scoring to intra-group relative ranking. ArenaRL introduces a process-aware pairwise evaluation mechanism, employing multi-level rubrics to assign fine-grained relative scores to trajectories. Additionally, we construct an intra-group adversarial arena and devise a tournament-based ranking scheme to obtain stable advantage signals. Empirical results confirm that the built seeded single-elimination scheme achieves nearly equivalent advantage estimation accuracy to full pairwise comparisons with O(N^2) complexity, while operating with only O(N) complexity, striking an optimal balance between efficiency and precision. Furthermore, to address the lack of full-cycle benchmarks for open-ended agents, we build Open-Travel and Open-DeepResearch, two high-quality benchmarks featuring a comprehensive pipeline covering SFT, RL training, and multi-dimensional evaluation. Extensive experiments show that ArenaRL substantially outperforms standard RL baselines, enabling LLM agents to generate more robust solutions for complex real-world tasks.

Alibaba-NLP Alibaba-NLP
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Jan 10 2

What are the best systems? New perspectives on NLP Benchmarking

In Machine Learning, a benchmark refers to an ensemble of datasets associated with one or multiple metrics together with a way to aggregate different systems performances. They are instrumental in (i) assessing the progress of new methods along different axes and (ii) selecting the best systems for practical use. This is particularly the case for NLP with the development of large pre-trained models (e.g. GPT, BERT) that are expected to generalize well on a variety of tasks. While the community mainly focused on developing new datasets and metrics, there has been little interest in the aggregation procedure, which is often reduced to a simple average over various performance measures. However, this procedure can be problematic when the metrics are on a different scale, which may lead to spurious conclusions. This paper proposes a new procedure to rank systems based on their performance across different tasks. Motivated by the social choice theory, the final system ordering is obtained through aggregating the rankings induced by each task and is theoretically grounded. We conduct extensive numerical experiments (on over 270k scores) to assess the soundness of our approach both on synthetic and real scores (e.g. GLUE, EXTREM, SEVAL, TAC, FLICKR). In particular, we show that our method yields different conclusions on state-of-the-art systems than the mean-aggregation procedure while being both more reliable and robust.

  • 4 authors
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Feb 8, 2022

Beyond Static Leaderboards: Predictive Validity for the Evaluation of LLM Agents

Agent benchmarks are growing fast, but no single benchmark touches more than four or five of the dimensions that deployment exposes. This paper aggregates the largest coordinated deep-dive of one MCP-based industrial-agent benchmark to date: fourteen parallel implementation studies covering new asset classes (including a multi-modal visual extension), alternative orchestrations, retrieval strategies, reasoning modes, infrastructure optimizations, and evaluation-methodology probes. Consolidating those studies with seven prior agent benchmarks, we argue that aggregate-score leaderboards systematically underspecify deployed-agent evaluation. Rankings derived from aggregate scores do not transfer to out-of-distribution settings; recent public-to-hidden competition retrospectives provide direct empirical evidence of this rank instability. We propose ranking configurations by predictive validity, the correlation between in-sample and out-of-sample rank, rather than in-sample mean, and report a twelve-tier measurement apparatus that exposes the deployment-relevant dimensions HELM and its agent-era successors collapse. The position is operationalized through three falsifiable out-of-distribution criteria with explicit thresholds; existing evidence partly supports it but is too thin to confirm. We close with a pre-registered pilot design and a field-level vision for what the next generation of agentic benchmarks should report.

ibm IBM
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Jun 17 1