Daily Papers

Reinforcement learning (RL) enables language models to improve text-to-image (T2I) generation by rewriting prompts for a frozen image generator. Existing methods typically apply a single signal derived from the image to individual subword tokens, although objects, counts, attributes, and relations form coherent semantic spans. We propose SCOPE, an objective based on Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) that aligns update weighting with this structure. The rewriter jointly generates an enhanced prompt and its semantic partition. SCOPE pools shifts in policy log probabilities within each span to derive a shared coefficient for its token losses while retaining a single advantage for each completion. It requires neither separate span rewards nor additional image renders. Across Qwen-Image, SD3, and FLUX.1-dev, SCOPE achieves average relative gains over vanilla GRPO of 9.48% on GeneVal and 7.62% on T2I-CompBench. Ablation studies show that both semantic boundaries and pooling within spans contribute to these gains, supporting semantic structure as a practical inductive bias for prompt engineering with RL.

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards has enabled strong post-training gains in domains such as math and coding, though many open-ended settings rely on rubric-based rewards. We study reward hacking in rubric-based RL, where a policy is optimized against a training verifier but evaluated against a cross-family panel of three frontier judges, reducing dependence on any single evaluator. Our framework separates two sources of divergence: verifier failure, where the training verifier credits rubric criteria that reference verifiers reject, and rubric-design limitations, where even strong rubric-based verifiers favor responses that rubric-free judges rate worse overall. Across medical and science domains, weak verifiers produce large proxy-reward gains that do not transfer to the reference verifiers; exploitation grows over training and concentrates in recurring failures such as partial satisfaction of compound criteria, treating implicit content as explicit, and imprecise topical matching. Stronger verifiers substantially reduce, but do not eliminate, verifier exploitation. We also introduce a self-internalization gap, a verifier-free diagnostic based on policy log-probabilities, which tracks reference-verifier quality, detecting when the policy trained using the weak verifier stops improving. Finally, in our setting, stronger verification does not prevent reward hacking when the rubric leaves important failure modes unspecified: rubric-based verifiers prefer the RL checkpoint, while rubric-free judges prefer the base model. These disagreements coincide with gains concentrated in completeness and presence-based criteria, alongside declines in factual correctness, conciseness, relevance, and overall quality. Together, these results suggest that stronger verification reduces reward hacking, but does not by itself ensure that rubric gains correspond to broader quality gains.

Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) has emerged as a simple alternative to reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) for aligning language models, but its reliance on hard pairwise labels makes it brittle under noise; our experiments show performance degrading by up to 93 percent in noisy settings. We introduce Anchored Direct Preference Optimization (ADPO), a unified framework that addresses this fragility through reference anchoring. By minimizing KL(q || softmax((l - l_ref) / tau_anc)), where l_ref are reference policy log probabilities, ADPO provides three key advantages: (1) it unifies major learning paradigms, including supervised fine-tuning, knowledge distillation, maximum-entropy reinforcement learning, and DPO, as special cases through different choices of target distribution q, anchor policy pi_ref, and temperature tau_anc; (2) it induces an implicit trust region governed by the softmax Fisher metric with curvature scaling as 1 / tau_anc^2, providing geometric regularization absent in standard methods; and (3) it enables flexible anchor strategies tailored to different learning contexts. Empirically, ADPO consistently outperforms standard DPO by 12 to 93 percent across twelve noisy scenarios, with listwise variants achieving top performance in eleven of twelve cases. In offline distillation, ADPO reduces student-teacher KL by 4 to 49 times while achieving superior returns (for example, 279.3 vs -309.0 for knowledge distillation on HalfCheetah). We further uncover a task-dependent tradeoff: dynamic anchors excel at online exploration in noisy environments (plus 5 to 11 percent), while fixed anchors enable stable offline distillation. Our work establishes anchoring as a general principle for robust policy optimization, with clear practical guidance for anchor selection across diverse learning scenarios.

On-policy Distillation (OPD) supervises a student model on trajectories sampled from its own policy by minimizing the divergence between the output distributions of the teacher and student at each token position, thereby providing dense token-level supervision. Although existing OPD methods have demonstrated strong performance in improving the reasoning ability of student models, their objectives fundamentally rely on token-level distribution matching. Consequently, they lack an explicit signal for comparing a token's relative compatibility across reasoning modes and thus do not directly model preferences between these modes. To address this limitation, we propose COPD, a contrastive OPD framework. Specifically, for each token generated by the student model, a frozen teacher model scores the same student state under two contrasting instructions that elicit light and heavy reasoning. The difference between the resulting log probabilities serves as a token-level advantage signal to guide the OPD update. Rather than merely imitating a single teacher distribution, COPD directly encourages the student model to learn more concise and efficient reasoning strategies. We conduct experiments on nine multimodal benchmarks covering both reasoning and understanding tasks. The results show that COPD substantially reduces reasoning length without compromising model performance and consistently improves efficiency across different tasks and model scales. Furthermore, the contrastive formulation can be seamlessly integrated into the On-policy Self-distillation (OPSD) framework, where self-contrastive supervision is constructed without an additional teacher model, thereby enabling the model to distill itself toward lightweight reasoning.

Multimodal on-policy distillation (OPD) transfers fine-grained visual knowledge by supervising student-generated trajectories with a privileged-view teacher. Yet its next-token corrections are source-mixed, combining visual signals with linguistic priors and teacher-specific effects. The key challenge is to estimate which corrections are supported by visual evidence, not merely where or how strongly to distill. We introduce Visual Attribution Distillation (VAD), a counterfactual target-reconstruction algorithm that estimates the visually attributable part of a teacher correction. At each student-generated prefix, VAD evaluates the same fixed teacher with the relevant evidence present and removed. The corresponding change in centered log-probabilities defines ut, a signed proxy for the visual evidence direction that estimates how revealing the evidence supports or refutes candidate tokens. VAD projects the original correction onto this proxy to obtain an intervention-aligned component and a proxy-unexplained residual, then reconstructs a student-anchored target from the former. During training, this reconstructed target supplies the primary supervision signal, while the privileged teacher contributes a weak regularizer. Across six fine-grained visual benchmarks at 4B and 9B scales, VAD outperforms direct privileged-view distillation and visual-advantage weighting. Token- level and controlled-target analyses show that the proxy-aligned component is enriched in task-relevant visual corrections and yields stronger target shifts, especially when evidence refutes a mistaken answer. These results support counterfactual target reconstruction as an effective alternative to source-mixed supervision.

On-Policy Distillation (OPD) trains a student on its own generations using teacher feedback. With different tokenizers, comparing teacher and student predictions requires alignment at both sequence and vocabulary levels. In this paper, we examine whether expanding this alignment coverage improves learning. Across three heterogeneous teacher--student pairs on mathematical reasoning and code generation, strict 1:1 groups already cover most student-generated tokens despite substantial vocabulary mismatch. On responses sampled from the students before distillation, the shared vocabulary retains nearly all teacher and student probability mass at strictly aligned positions on average. Restricting reverse KL to a student-selected top-16 subset of the shared vocabulary at each strict position achieves accuracy comparable to full shared-vocabulary OPD, outperforming the evaluated cross-tokenizer baselines. Adding mean squared error supervision on span log-probabilities in mismatch groups gives complete supervision coverage, yet reduces accuracy. At checkpoints from training with only the strict loss, the span gradients show weak or negative directional agreement with the strict gradients and grow in magnitude relative to them. These diagnostics may help explain the accuracy drop from adding span supervision. Our findings motivate a shift from maximizing alignment coverage to prioritizing supervision reliability: compact supervision at strict positions can be more effective than broader coverage that introduces weakly aligned or conflicting training signals.

On-policy distillation (OPD) has emerged as an efficient post-training paradigm for large language models. However, standard OPD requires a live teacher inference server throughout training, resulting in substantial infrastructure overhead. In this work, we investigate whether on-policy distillation can be performed offline. A natural approach is to precompute teacher log-probabilities once over SFT rollouts and reuse them during training. In practice, however, this offline variant fails to reliably match the performance of standard OPD. To understand this discrepancy, we identify a previously overlooked condition that is critical for any OPD pipeline, which we term teacher consistency. This condition requires that the same teacher model be used for both supervised fine-tuning and OPD. We show that violating teacher consistency introduces an irreducible gradient bias, causing both offline and online OPD to converge to a suboptimal fixed point regardless of training duration. Building on this insight, we propose Lightning OPD, an offline on-policy distillation framework that enforces teacher consistency by precomputing teacher log-probabilities over SFT rollouts. This design eliminates the need for a live teacher server entirely. We further show that, under teacher consistency, Lightning OPD shares the same optimum as standard OPD, with bounded gradient discrepancy and an implicit regularization effect that helps prevent policy drift. Extensive experiments on mathematical reasoning and code generation demonstrate that Lightning OPD achieves state-of-the-art performance with significantly improved efficiency. Starting from an SFT-initialized Qwen3-8B-Base model, Lightning OPD reaches 69.9% on AIME 2024 in just 30 GPU hours, achieving a 4.0x speedup over standard OPD and substantially lowering the barrier to entry for academic research on LLM post-training.

Policy-shift distillation reuses the difference between a teacher's log probabilities before and after reinforcement learning (RL) as supervision on student-generated trajectories. However, this endpoint policy shift cannot reveal whether local action preferences evolved consistently during teacher training. The same endpoint shift can result from early and late shifts that reinforce or partially cancel each other. We investigate whether agreement between early and late teacher policy shifts can guide selective transfer. We introduce Waypoint-guided On-Policy Distillation (Waypoint-OPD), which uses an intermediate teacher checkpoint from the same RL run to compare early and late shifts in relative action preferences at student-visited prefixes. We gate the endpoint shift according to the directional agreement between the early and late shifts, suppressing it when they point in opposing directions. Compared with endpoint-only transfer, our method requires only one additional frozen-teacher scoring pass. Using RL-trained Qwen3-4B teachers, we evaluate our method with Qwen3-8B, Qwen3-14B, and Qwen3-30B-A3B as student models in mathematical and code reasoning. In all six domain--student settings, Waypoint-OPD achieves the highest domain-average score among the compared distillation methods. Ablations with the Qwen3-8B student show that removing or shuffling gates reduces mathematical reasoning performance. These results support the use of directional agreement between early and late teacher policy shifts to weight the endpoint shift during student training.

Reinforcement learning (RL) post-training has become a trending paradigm for enhancing the capabilities of large language models (LLMs). Most existing RL systems for LLMs operate in a fully synchronous manner, where training must wait for the rollout of an entire batch to complete. This design leads to severe inefficiencies, as extremely long trajectories can stall the entire rollout process and leave many GPUs idle. To address this issue, we propose Concurrency- Controlled Partial Rollout with Importance Sampling (CoPRIS), which mitigates long-tail inefficiencies by maintaining a fixed number of concurrent rollouts, early-terminating once sufficient samples are collected, and reusing unfinished trajectories in subsequent rollouts. To mitigate the impact of off-policy trajectories, we introduce Cross-stage Importance Sampling Correction, which concatenates buffered log probabilities from the previous policy with those recomputed under the current policy for importance sampling correction. Experiments on challenging mathematical reasoning benchmarks show that CoPRIS achieves up to 1.94x faster training while maintaining comparable or superior performance to synchronous RL systems. The code of CoPRIS is available at https://github.com/777pomingzi/CoPRIS.

Reinforcement learning (RL) for video generation usually assigns one scalar reward to an entire sampled video. Yet a video is not uniformly flawed: some visual tokens may already satisfy the prompt, whereas others require correction. A scalar reward cannot localize errors, causing optimization to perturb satisfactory tokens while under-targeting the tokens that actually need to change. We introduce Token-Level Video Reinforcement Learning, TVRL, a framework that derives token-level credit from the reward being optimized. Our key insight is that the answer likelihood of a frozen vision-language model provides both signals: its outputs contribute to the video-level reward, while magnitudes of its video-input gradients reveal which generated video tokens most affect that score. We instantiate TVRL in Group Relative Policy Optimization by averaging prompt-derived question rewards into one group-relative advantage and using detached, question-conditioned token-credit maps to reweight dense denoising-transition log-probabilities inside the clipped policy ratio. On VBench-2.0, TVRL achieves an Overall score of 57.69, outperforming the base model by 3.60 points. TVRL also improves matched GRPO baselines across three SDE samplers (SAGE, Flow, and Dance) by 2.68--3.15 points and across four reward models (VideoAlign, VideoScore2, UnifiedReward2, and Qwen3.5-9B) by 1.33--3.15 points.

Thanks to their remarkable flexibility, diffusion models and flow models have emerged as promising candidates for policy representation. However, efficient reinforcement learning (RL) upon these policies remains a challenge due to the lack of explicit log-probabilities for vanilla policy gradient estimators. While numerous attempts have been proposed to address this, the field lacks a unified perspective to reconcile these seemingly disparate methods, thus hampering ongoing development. In this paper, we bridge this gap by introducing a comprehensive taxonomy for RL algorithms with diffusion/flow policies. To support reproducibility and agile prototyping, we introduce a modular, JAX-based open-source codebase that leverages JIT-compilation for high-throughput training. Finally, we provide systematic and standardized benchmarks across Gym-Locomotion, DeepMind Control Suite, and IsaacLab, offering a rigorous side-by-side comparison of diffusion-based methods and guidance for practitioners to choose proper algorithms based on the application. Our work establishes a clear foundation for understanding and algorithm design, a high-efficiency toolkit for future research in the field, and an algorithmic guideline for practitioners in generative models and robotics. Our code is available at https://github.com/typoverflow/flow-rl.

Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) is one of the most widely adopted RLVR algorithms for post-training large language models on reasoning tasks. We first show that GRPO admits an equivalent discriminative reformulation, in which policy optimization maximizes the expected score gap between verified positive and negative rollouts. This reformulation reveals two objective-level limitations: likelihood-misaligned surrogate scores, in which clipped ratio-based scores are optimized rather than the sequence likelihoods that govern generation, and score-insensitive credit assignment, in which rollout-level credit does not reflect the current score gaps between positive and negative rollouts. To address these limitations, we propose ConSPO, a Contrastive Sequence-level Policy Optimization method that uses length-normalized sequence log-probabilities as rollout scores and contrasts verified positive rollouts against negative distractors within the same group. ConSPO optimizes a group-wise InfoNCE-style objective to adaptively strengthen updates for poorly separated positives and high-scoring negatives, together with a curriculum-scheduled margin that preserves separation pressure as training progresses. Experiments across diverse settings show that ConSPO outperforms strong baselines on challenging reasoning benchmarks. Code will be released upon paper acceptance.

We study the problem of determining whether a piece of text has been authored by a human or by a large language model (LLM). Existing state of the art logits-based detectors make use of statistics derived from the log-probability of the observed text evaluated using the distribution function of a given source LLM. However, relying solely on log probabilities can be sub-optimal. In response, we introduce AdaDetectGPT -- a novel classifier that adaptively learns a witness function from training data to enhance the performance of logits-based detectors. We provide statistical guarantees on its true positive rate, false positive rate, true negative rate and false negative rate. Extensive numerical studies show AdaDetectGPT nearly uniformly improves the state-of-the-art method in various combination of datasets and LLMs, and the improvement can reach up to 58%. A python implementation of our method is available at https://github.com/Mamba413/AdaDetectGPT.

Policy compliance assessment is a fundamental task of evaluating whether an input case strictly complies with a set of human-defined rules, more generally known as policies. In practice, human experts follow a systematic, step-by-step process to identify violations with respect to specific stipulations outlined in the policy. However, such documentation of gold-standard, expert-level reasoning processes is costly to acquire. In this paper, we introduce Policy Reasoning Traces (PRT), a form of specialized generated reasoning chains that serve as a reasoning bridge to improve an LLM's policy compliance assessment capabilities. Our empirical evaluations demonstrate that the use of PRTs for both inference-time and training-time scenarios significantly enhances the performance of open-weight and commercial models, setting a new state-of-the-art for HIPAA and GDPR policies. Beyond accuracy gains, we also highlight how PRTs can improve an LLM's ability to accurately cite policy clauses, as well as influence compliance decisions through their high utilization from the raw chains of thought.

Policy optimization methods are popular reinforcement learning algorithms in practice. Recent works have built theoretical foundation for them by proving T regret bounds even when the losses are adversarial. Such bounds are tight in the worst case but often overly pessimistic. In this work, we show that in tabular Markov decision processes (MDPs), by properly designing the regularizer, the exploration bonus and the learning rates, one can achieve a more favorable polylog(T) regret when the losses are stochastic, without sacrificing the worst-case guarantee in the adversarial regime. To our knowledge, this is also the first time a gap-dependent polylog(T) regret bound is shown for policy optimization. Specifically, we achieve this by leveraging a Tsallis entropy or a Shannon entropy regularizer in the policy update. Then we show that under known transitions, we can further obtain a first-order regret bound in the adversarial regime by leveraging the log-barrier regularizer.

Fine-tuning large language models (LLMs) on reasoning benchmarks via reinforcement learning requires a specific reward function, often binary, for each benchmark. This comes with two potential limitations: the need to design the reward, and the potentially sparse nature of binary rewards. Here, we systematically investigate rewards derived from the probability or log-probability of emitting the reference answer (or any other prompt continuation present in the data), which have the advantage of not relying on specific verifiers and being available at scale. Several recent works have advocated for the use of similar rewards (e.g., VeriFree, JEPO, RLPR, NOVER). We systematically compare variants of likelihood-based rewards with standard baselines, testing performance both on standard mathematical reasoning benchmarks, and on long-form answers where no external verifier is available. We find that using the log-probability of the reference answer as the reward for chain-of-thought (CoT) learning is the only option that performs well in all setups. This reward is also consistent with the next-token log-likelihood loss used during pretraining. In verifiable settings, log-probability rewards bring comparable or better success rates than reinforcing with standard binary rewards, and yield much better perplexity. In non-verifiable settings, they perform on par with SFT. On the other hand, methods based on probability, such as VeriFree, flatline on non-verifiable settings due to vanishing probabilities of getting the correct answer. Overall, this establishes log-probability rewards as a viable method for CoT fine-tuning, bridging the short, verifiable and long, non-verifiable answer settings.

Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) is widely used in reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards for language-model reasoning. While value evolution along trajectory characterizes relative token-level credit, yet standard critics often fail to track it under sparse terminal rewards. To model this evolution, we analyze the relation between successive prefix values and show that they admit a Bayesian decomposition with additive updates in log-odds space. We use this additive structure to construct Tracking-Value PPO (\method), a cumulative value parameterization that sums position-wise scalar outputs into value logits. These outputs are learned through terminal-outcome supervision on the reconstructed values. \method improves aggregate mathematical reasoning scores over PPO by 7.0 and 8.4 points on Qwen3-4B-Base and Qwen3-8B-Base, respectively, while improving out-of-distribution generalization. Gains extend to Qwen3-4B, Qwen2.5-Math-1.5B, Qwen3.5-9B and to countdown, and scientific coding tasks. Further analysis shows more accurate tracking of value evolution and more reliable advantage estimates. Our code is publicly available in https://github.com/LINs-lab/TPPO.

Diffusion large language models (dLLMs) are emerging as an efficient alternative to autoregressive models due to their ability to decode multiple tokens in parallel. However, aligning dLLMs with human preferences or task-specific rewards via reinforcement learning (RL) is challenging because their intractable log-likelihood precludes the direct application of standard policy gradient methods. While prior work uses surrogates like the evidence lower bound (ELBO), these one-sided approximations can introduce significant policy gradient bias. To address this, we propose the Sandwiched Policy Gradient (SPG) that leverages both an upper and a lower bound of the true log-likelihood. Experiments show that SPG significantly outperforms baselines based on ELBO or one-step estimation. Specifically, SPG improves the accuracy over state-of-the-art RL methods for dLLMs by 3.6% in GSM8K, 2.6% in MATH500, 18.4% in Countdown and 27.0% in Sudoku.

Counterfactual Risk Minimization (CRM) is a framework for dealing with the logged bandit feedback problem, where the goal is to improve a logging policy using offline data. In this paper, we explore the case where it is possible to deploy learned policies multiple times and acquire new data. We extend the CRM principle and its theory to this scenario, which we call "Sequential Counterfactual Risk Minimization (SCRM)." We introduce a novel counterfactual estimator and identify conditions that can improve the performance of CRM in terms of excess risk and regret rates, by using an analysis similar to restart strategies in accelerated optimization methods. We also provide an empirical evaluation of our method in both discrete and continuous action settings, and demonstrate the benefits of multiple deployments of CRM.

Exploration is essential in modern learning, from reinforcement learning environments with small neural policies to large language models (LLMs). Existing work, such as DPO, leverages full sequence log-likelihoods to capture an entire trajectory of the model's decisions, while methods like GRPO aggregate per-token ratios into a trajectory-level update. However, both often limit exploration on long-horizon tasks. We introduce History-Aggregated Exploratory Policy Optimization (HAEPO), a history-aware exploratory loss to combat these shortcomings. HAEPO compresses each trajectory into the sum of its logarithmic probabilities (a cumulative logarithmic likelihood), and applies a Plackett-Luce softmax across trajectories to obtain normalized weights proportional to their returns, thus encouraging broader exploration. We add entropy regularization to stabilize the aggressive updates to prevent premature collapse and a soft KL penalty relative to a frozen copy of the previous (reference) policy. Empirically, HAEPO converges fast, explores thoroughly, aligns closely with true rewards, and demonstrates robust learning behavior better or at par with PPO, GRPO, and DPO across diverse tasks. Thus, HAEPO provides a stable and interpretable framework by explicitly leveraging full-trajectory history while balancing exploration and stability.

Log anomaly detection is a critical task for system operations and security assurance. However, in networked systems at scale, log data are generated at massive scale while instance-level annotations are prohibitively expensive, posing great difficulties to fine-grained anomaly localization. To address this challenge, we propose LogMILP (Log anomaly localization based on Multi-Instance Learning enhanced by prototypes and Perturbation), a weakly supervised framework that enables both bag-level anomaly detection and instance-level anomaly localization using only bag-level labels. Our method guides the model to pinpoint the critical log entries using prototype-guided structural modeling with counterfactual perturbation consistency regularization, thereby improving localization reliability and interpretability under coarse-grained supervision. Experimental results on three public datasets demonstrate that LogMILP achieves competitive detection performance while yielding significantly more reliable instance-level localization. Our code is open-sourced at https://github.com/YUK1207/LogMILP.

Logs generated by large-scale software systems provide crucial information for engineers to understand the system status and diagnose problems of the systems. Log parsing, which converts raw log messages into structured data, is the first step to enabling automated log analytics. Existing log parsers extract the common part as log templates using statistical features. However, these log parsers often fail to identify the correct templates and parameters because: 1) they often overlook the semantic meaning of log messages, and 2) they require domain-specific knowledge for different log datasets. To address the limitations of existing methods, in this paper, we propose LogPPT to capture the patterns of templates using prompt-based few-shot learning. LogPPT utilises a novel prompt tuning method to recognise keywords and parameters based on a few labelled log data. In addition, an adaptive random sampling algorithm is designed to select a small yet diverse training set. We have conducted extensive experiments on 16 public log datasets. The experimental results show that LogPPT is effective and efficient for log parsing.

Probabilistic models are typically trained using task-agnostic objectives like log-loss, which can lead to significant errors in downstream estimation. This disconnect is especially critical in Inverse Probability Weighting (IPW) for causal inference, where propensity score errors near 0 and 1 often lead to high bias and variance. We propose a principled framework for deriving task-specific strictly proper scoring rules by matching the local curvature of the downstream error metric. We apply this to the Average Treatment Effect (ATE) estimation, deriving a closed-form loss and its corresponding canonical probability mapping that can be readily integrated with any model like a neural network or a gradient boosting algorithm. Extensive evaluations on causal inference benchmarks demonstrate that our tailored objective consistently outperforms standard likelihood-based and covariate-balancing approaches.

System One models output calibrated probabilities over typed answers such as categorical choices, ordinal levels, or binary outcomes, via a non-generative interface. Software can act on these probabilities through thresholds, cost-weighted choices, and escalation rules. Consequently, if these probabilities are miscalibrated or wording-sensitive, the software ma take unintended actions leaving human operators with no textual rationale to inspect. Current evaluations largely report accuracy and calibration on public classification datasets without a clear reference. We present TypedBench, a benchmark for typed decision models like Jev built from seven policy-labelled generators and nine evaluation suites. We report accuracy as median and range across paraphrases, and calibration error relative to the finite-sample noise floor of a matched, perfectly calibrated predictor. We assess probability quality through selective prediction, ordinal proper scoring rules, and realised cost under asymmetric cost matrices. We evaluate a hosted model, an open encoder, and a family of open decoders spanning 0.8B-9B parameters on identical items. The hosted model follows the stated policy but is wording-sensitive and systematically underconfident; under asymmetric costs, using its probabilities can be worse than taking its top answer. Decoders route exactly and are slow as options or questions are added. The decoder is least accurate on policy questions and degrades with more options. Overall, typed decision models must be evaluated jointly on policy adherence, wording robustness, probability quality, and induced decision outcomes.

Users of music streaming, video streaming, news recommendation, and e-commerce services often engage with content in a sequential manner. Providing and evaluating good sequences of recommendations is therefore a central problem for these services. Prior reweighting-based counterfactual evaluation methods either suffer from high variance or make strong independence assumptions about rewards. We propose a new counterfactual estimator that allows for sequential interactions in the rewards with lower variance in an asymptotically unbiased manner. Our method uses graphical assumptions about the causal relationships of the slate to reweight the rewards in the logging policy in a way that approximates the expected sum of rewards under the target policy. Extensive experiments in simulation and on a live recommender system show that our approach outperforms existing methods in terms of bias and data efficiency for the sequential track recommendations problem.

The fluency and factual knowledge of large language models (LLMs) heightens the need for corresponding systems to detect whether a piece of text is machine-written. For example, students may use LLMs to complete written assignments, leaving instructors unable to accurately assess student learning. In this paper, we first demonstrate that text sampled from an LLM tends to occupy negative curvature regions of the model's log probability function. Leveraging this observation, we then define a new curvature-based criterion for judging if a passage is generated from a given LLM. This approach, which we call DetectGPT, does not require training a separate classifier, collecting a dataset of real or generated passages, or explicitly watermarking generated text. It uses only log probabilities computed by the model of interest and random perturbations of the passage from another generic pre-trained language model (e.g, T5). We find DetectGPT is more discriminative than existing zero-shot methods for model sample detection, notably improving detection of fake news articles generated by 20B parameter GPT-NeoX from 0.81 AUROC for the strongest zero-shot baseline to 0.95 AUROC for DetectGPT. See https://ericmitchell.ai/detectgpt for code, data, and other project information.

System log anomaly detection is critical for maintaining the reliability of large-scale software systems, yet traditional methods struggle with the heterogeneous and evolving nature of modern log data. Recent advances in Large Language Models (LLMs) offer promising new approaches to log understanding, but a systematic comparison of LLM-based methods against established techniques remains lacking. In this paper, we present a comprehensive benchmark study evaluating both LLM-based and traditional approaches for log anomaly detection across four widely-used public datasets: HDFS, BGL, Thunderbird, and Spirit. We evaluate three categories of methods: (1) classical log parsers (Drain, Spell, AEL) combined with machine learning classifiers, (2) fine-tuned transformer models (BERT, RoBERTa), and (3) prompt-based LLM approaches (GPT-3.5, GPT-4, LLaMA-3) in zero-shot and few-shot settings. Our experiments reveal that while fine-tuned transformers achieve the highest F1-scores (0.96-0.99), prompt-based LLMs demonstrate remarkablezero-shot capabilities (F1: 0.82-0.91) without requiring any labeled training data -- a significant advantage for real-world deployment where labeled anomalies are scarce. We further analyze the cost-accuracy trade-offs, latency characteristics, and failure modes of each approach. Our findings provide actionable guidelines for practitioners choosing log anomaly detection methods based on their specific constraints regarding accuracy, latency, cost, and label availability. All code and experimental configurations are publicly available to facilitate reproducibility.

Log anomaly detection, which is critical for identifying system failures and preempting security breaches, detects irregular patterns within large volumes of log data, and impacts domains such as service reliability, performance optimization, and database log analysis. Modern log anomaly detection methods rely on training deep learning models on clean, anomaly-free log sequences. However, obtaining such clean log data requires costly and tedious human labeling, and existing automatic cleaning methods fail to fully integrate the specific characteristics and actual semantics of logs in their purification process. In this paper, we propose a cost-aware, rule-enhanced purification framework, LogPurge, that automatically selects a sufficient subset of normal log sequences from contamination log sequences to train a anomaly detection model. Our approach involves a two-stage filtering algorithm: In the first stage, we use a large language model (LLM) to remove clustered anomalous patterns and enhance system rules to improve LLM's understanding of system logs; in the second stage, we utilize a divide-and-conquer strategy that decomposes the remaining contaminated regions into smaller subproblems, allowing each to be effectively purified through the first stage procedure. Our experiments, conducted on two public datasets and one industrial dataset, show that our method significantly removes an average of 98.74% of anomalies while retaining 82.39% of normal samples. Compared to the latest unsupervised log sample selection algorithms, our method achieves F-1 score improvements of 35.7% and 84.11% on the public datasets, and an impressive 149.72% F-1 improvement on the private dataset, demonstrating the effectiveness of our approach.

With the increasing numbers of publicly available models, there are probably pretrained, online models for most tasks users require. However, current model search methods are rudimentary, essentially a text-based search in the documentation, thus users cannot find the relevant models. This paper presents ProbeLog, a method for retrieving classification models that can recognize a target concept, such as "Dog", without access to model metadata or training data. Differently from previous probing methods, ProbeLog computes a descriptor for each output dimension (logit) of each model, by observing its responses on a fixed set of inputs (probes). Our method supports both logit-based retrieval ("find more logits like this") and zero-shot, text-based retrieval ("find all logits corresponding to dogs"). As probing-based representations require multiple costly feedforward passes through the model, we develop a method, based on collaborative filtering, that reduces the cost of encoding repositories by 3x. We demonstrate that ProbeLog achieves high retrieval accuracy, both in real-world and fine-grained search tasks and is scalable to full-size repositories.

On-policy distillation (OPD) accelerates post-training by providing dense token-level supervision from a frozen teacher on the student's own rollouts. Vanilla OPD applies this supervision uniformly across prompts, without checking whether the teacher is reliable for each prompt. Because reverse KL is mode-seeking, a confidently wrong teacher can induce a strong yet misleading update. Distributional proxies, such as entropy or teacher-student likelihood agreement, measure uncertainty or agreement but do not directly verify outcome correctness. We introduce Teacher-Gated On-Policy Distillation (TGOPD), built on the principle that teacher reliability should be verified at the prompt level before dense supervision is admitted. TGOPD estimates reliability from a small set of verifier-scored teacher probes and routes each prompt exclusively to dense OPD when the reliability check passes or to verifier-grounded GRPO otherwise. Across 4B and 35B students in mathematics, code, and instruction following, TGOPD outperforms Vanilla OPD in all six single-domain settings and achieves higher seven-benchmark averages at both scales under multi-domain training. By using otherwise-idle teacher capacity for reliability estimation, TGOPD also reduces teacher-side compute waste in asynchronous OPD, increasing teacher-node GPU utilization from 9.8% to 78.9% in the measured 4B single-domain run.

In high-stakes decision-making applications of large language models (LLMs), practitioners require not only accurate LLMs but also uncertainty estimates for their predictions. Existing approaches to uncertainty estimation for LLMs require access to log-probabilities output by the model or require fine-tuning access. However, many industrial LLM products use closed-source API models, and many such API models like GPT do not return log-probabilities and may not allow fine-tuning. We introduce Pinocchio, an external calibrator that estimates the correctness of responses from black-box API models. Trained jointly on responses from seven LLMs, it achieves 0.862 AUROC predicting the correctness of held-out responses from those same models, and shows zero-shot transfer to thirteen unseen models across eight organizations. Our model needs only a single forward pass to generate an uncertainty estimate and requires no access to the target model's logits, weights, or internal states. A lightweight text only 0.8B checkpoint matches our largest model's AUROC. We release code for adding uncertainty estimation to existing repos in only two additional lines of code.

Evaluating model uncertainty on real-world data is challenging because each instance provides only a single observed label, leaving true conditional class probabilities unknown. To address this, we introduce ProbabilityBench, a benchmark that provides exact, instance-level class probabilities across three simulated text-based domains: peer review, covert information transfer, and credit risk. By explicitly defining the full data-generating process for each environment, we analytically compute both exact class probabilities and Bayes error. Furthermore, we provide a theoretical guarantee that rendering these cases into natural-language memos strictly preserves their underlying generative probabilities. This exactness enables direct measurement of reported probability quality via KL divergence. Across 16 evaluated models, most models on the observed cost-quality Pareto frontiers are decision models, including Jev and Perplexity Decider. Finally, ProbabilityBench serves as a meta-evaluation framework, leveraging known ground-truth values to benchmark the accuracy of standard calibration metrics and Bayes-error estimators themselves.

The system log generated in a computer system refers to large-scale data that are collected simultaneously and used as the basic data for determining errors, intrusion and abnormal behaviors. The aim of system log anomaly detection is to promptly identify anomalies while minimizing human intervention, which is a critical problem in the industry. Previous studies performed anomaly detection through algorithms after converting various forms of log data into a standardized template using a parser. Particularly, a template corresponding to a specific event should be defined in advance for all the log data using which the information within the log key may get lost. In this study, we propose LAnoBERT, a parser free system log anomaly detection method that uses the BERT model, exhibiting excellent natural language processing performance. The proposed method, LAnoBERT, learns the model through masked language modeling, which is a BERT-based pre-training method, and proceeds with unsupervised learning-based anomaly detection using the masked language modeling loss function per log key during the test process. In addition, we also propose an efficient inference process to establish a practically applicable pipeline to the actual system. Experiments on three well-known log datasets, i.e., HDFS, BGL, and Thunderbird, show that not only did LAnoBERT yield a higher anomaly detection performance compared to unsupervised learning-based benchmark models, but also it resulted in a comparable performance with supervised learning-based benchmark models.

Recent studies have shown that episodic reinforcement learning (RL) is no harder than bandits when the total reward is bounded by 1, and proved regret bounds that have a polylogarithmic dependence on the planning horizon H. However, it remains an open question that if such results can be carried over to adversarial RL, where the reward is adversarially chosen at each episode. In this paper, we answer this question affirmatively by proposing the first horizon-free policy search algorithm. To tackle the challenges caused by exploration and adversarially chosen reward, our algorithm employs (1) a variance-uncertainty-aware weighted least square estimator for the transition kernel; and (2) an occupancy measure-based technique for the online search of a stochastic policy. We show that our algorithm achieves an Obig((d+log (|S|^2 |A|))Kbig) regret with full-information feedback, where d is the dimension of a known feature mapping linearly parametrizing the unknown transition kernel of the MDP, K is the number of episodes, |S| and |A| are the cardinalities of the state and action spaces. We also provide hardness results and regret lower bounds to justify the near optimality of our algorithm and the unavoidability of log|S| and log|A| in the regret bound.

Event log analysis is an important task that security professionals undertake. Event logs record key information on activities that occur on computing devices, and due to the substantial number of events generated, they consume a large amount of time and resources to analyse. This demanding and repetitive task is also prone to errors. To address these concerns, researchers have developed automated techniques to improve the event log analysis process. Large Language Models (LLMs) have recently demonstrated the ability to successfully perform a wide range of tasks that individuals would usually partake in, to high standards, and at a pace and degree of complexity that outperform humans. Due to this, researchers are rapidly investigating the use of LLMs for event log analysis. This includes fine-tuning, Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) and in-context learning, which affect performance. These works demonstrate good progress, yet there is a need to understand the developing body of knowledge, identify commonalities between works, and identify key challenges and potential solutions to further developments in this domain. This paper aims to survey LLM-based event log analysis techniques, providing readers with an in-depth overview of the domain, gaps identified in previous research, and concluding with potential avenues to explore in future.

We propose training fitted Q-iteration with log-loss (FQI-LOG) for batch reinforcement learning (RL). We show that the number of samples needed to learn a near-optimal policy with FQI-LOG scales with the accumulated cost of the optimal policy, which is zero in problems where acting optimally achieves the goal and incurs no cost. In doing so, we provide a general framework for proving small-cost bounds, i.e. bounds that scale with the optimal achievable cost, in batch RL. Moreover, we empirically verify that FQI-LOG uses fewer samples than FQI trained with squared loss on problems where the optimal policy reliably achieves the goal.

Log anomaly detection plays a critical role in ensuring the security and maintenance of modern software systems. At present, the primary approach for detecting anomalies in log data is through supervised anomaly detection. Nonetheless, existing supervised methods heavily rely on labeled data, which can be frequently limited in real-world scenarios. In this paper, we propose a semi-supervised log anomaly detection method that combines the DQN algorithm from deep reinforcement learning, which is called DQNLog. DQNLog leverages a small amount of labeled data and a large-scale unlabeled dataset, effectively addressing the challenges of imbalanced data and limited labeling. This approach not only learns known anomalies by interacting with an environment biased towards anomalies but also discovers unknown anomalies by actively exploring the unlabeled dataset. Additionally, DQNLog incorporates a cross-entropy loss term to prevent model overestimation during Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL). Our evaluation on three widely-used datasets demonstrates that DQNLog significantly improves recall rate and F1-score while maintaining precision, validating its practicality.

The increasing complexity of computer systems necessitates innovative approaches to fault and error management, going beyond traditional manual log analysis. While existing solutions using large language models (LLMs) show promise, they are limited by a gap between natural and domain-specific languages, which restricts their effectiveness in real-world applications. Our approach addresses these limitations by integrating interpretable domain knowledge into open-source LLMs through continual pre-training (CPT), enhancing performance on log tasks while retaining natural language processing capabilities. We created a comprehensive dataset, NLPLog, with over 250,000 question-answer pairs to facilitate this integration. Our model, SuperLog, trained with this dataset, achieves the best performance across four log analysis tasks, surpassing the second-best model by an average of 12.01%. Our contributions include a novel CPT paradigm that significantly improves model performance, the development of SuperLog with state-of-the-art results, and the release of a large-scale dataset to support further research in this domain.

Automated log analysis is crucial to ensure high availability and reliability of complex systems. The advent of LLMs in NLP has ushered in a new era of language model-driven automated log analysis, garnering significant interest. Within this field, two primary paradigms based on language models for log analysis have become prominent. Small Language Models (SLMs) follow the pre-train and fine-tune paradigm, focusing on the specific log analysis task through fine-tuning on supervised datasets. On the other hand, LLMs following the in-context learning paradigm, analyze logs by providing a few examples in prompt contexts without updating parameters. Despite their respective strengths, we notice that SLMs are more cost-effective but less powerful, whereas LLMs with large parameters are highly powerful but expensive and inefficient. To trade-off between the performance and inference costs of both models in automated log analysis, this paper introduces an adaptive log analysis framework known as AdaptiveLog, which effectively reduces the costs associated with LLM while ensuring superior results. This framework collaborates an LLM and a small language model, strategically allocating the LLM to tackle complex logs while delegating simpler logs to the SLM. Specifically, to efficiently query the LLM, we propose an adaptive selection strategy based on the uncertainty estimation of the SLM, where the LLM is invoked only when the SLM is uncertain. In addition, to enhance the reasoning ability of the LLM in log analysis tasks, we propose a novel prompt strategy by retrieving similar error-prone cases as the reference, enabling the model to leverage past error experiences and learn solutions from these cases. Extensive experiments demonstrate that AdaptiveLog achieves state-of-the-art results across different tasks, elevating the overall accuracy of log analysis while maintaining cost efficiency.

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) has substantially improved the reasoning capabilities of large language models. While existing analyses identify that RLVR-induced changes are sparse, they primarily focus on the magnitude of these updates, largely overlooking their direction. In this work, we argue that the direction of updates is a more critical lens for understanding RLVR's effects, which can be captured by the signed, token-level log probability difference Δlog p between the base and final RLVR models. Through statistical analysis and token-replacement interventions, we demonstrate that Δlog p more effectively identifies sparse, yet reasoning-critical updates than magnitude-based metrics (\eg divergence or entropy). Building on this insight, we propose two practical applications: (1) a test-time extrapolation method that amplifies the policy along the learned Δlog p direction to improve reasoning accuracy without further training; (2) a training-time reweighting method that focuses learning on low-probability (corresponding to higher Δlog p) tokens, which improves reasoning performance across models and benchmarks. Our work establishes the direction of change as a key principle for analyzing and improving RLVR.

Security policy enforcement in contemporary agentic systems predominantly consists of embedding natural-language policies within an agent's system prompt and delegating compliance to the agent's reasoning. This approach admits no formal enforcement guarantee and cannot express policies whose satisfaction depends on the causal history of an execution, a gap that becomes acute in multi-agent systems, where enforcement must reason across agents. We argue that policy enforcement in agentic systems is most naturally understood as a cross-cutting concern, and propose a framework grounded in aspect-oriented programming that specifies policies independent of the agent's reasoning and enforces them at every policy-relevant decision. Policies are written in Datalog over a set of abstract predicates describing the execution context, an observability service governed by a formal assume/guarantee contract maintains these predicates, and a reference monitor consults the policy at each action to produce an enforcement decision. When the environment contract holds, enforcement decisions coincide with the policy's intended semantics. We adopt Datalog as the policy language, a natural fit because it supports declarative rule specification, admits recursion for policies over transitive relationships, and yields deterministic enforcement. Datalog further admits tractable static analyses for contradiction, redundancy, subsumption, and conditional reachability, enabling authors to verify policy intent and surface ambiguities inherent in natural-language specifications. We realize the framework in FORGE, which enforces policies over agentic deployments without modification to the underlying agents. We evaluate FORGE on three case studies: information flow policies for prompt injection defense, approval workflows in a multi-agent pharmacovigilance system, and organizational policies for customer service.

Large language models perform near-Bayesian inference yet violate permutation invariance on exchangeable data. We resolve this by showing transformers minimize expected conditional description length (cross-entropy) over orderings, E_pi[ell(Y mid Gamma_pi(X))], which admits a Kolmogorov-complexity interpretation up to additive constants, rather than the permutation-invariant description length ell(Y mid X). This makes them Bayesian in expectation, not in realization. We derive (i) a Quantified Martingale Violation bound showing order-induced deviations scale as O(log n) with constants; (ii) the Expectation-level Decompression Law linking information budgets to reliability for Bernoulli predicates; and (iii) deployable planners (B2T/RoH/ISR) for answer/abstain decisions. Empirically, permutation dispersion follows a+bln n (Qwen2-7B b approx 0.377, Llama-3.1-8B b approx 0.147); permutation mixtures improve ground-truth likelihood/accuracy; and randomized dose-response shows hallucinations drop by sim 0.13 per additional nat. A pre-specified audit with a fixed ISR=1.0 achieves near-0\% hallucinations via calibrated refusal at 24\% abstention. The framework turns hallucinations into predictable compression failures and enables principled information budgeting.

Autoregressive rollout generation is a major computational cost in reinforcement learning for large language models. Reusing each rollout batch for additional learner updates amortizes this cost, but later updates become increasingly off-policy as the learner departs from the behavior policy. At a token position, exact off-policy correction must account for both the current action and the probability of reaching its prefix. The cumulative importance ratio provides this correction, but its product form can produce an unwieldy dynamic range. We study Prefix-Normalized Policy Optimization (PNPO), which replaces the cumulative ratio with the geometric mean of likelihood ratios along each causal prefix, preserving causal-prefix dependence at each position while compressing the log-weight scale. In controlled long-context mathematical reasoning experiments, we induce two off-policy regimes by using one or four policy-update epochs per rollout batch. PNPO does not consistently outperform GSPO with one epoch. With four epochs, it attains the highest observed Avg@32 on each benchmark; the unweighted mean of the three independently selected benchmark peaks is 50.24, 3.00 percentage points above GSPO. Under a matched 2,400-update budget, four-epoch PNPO reaches a final macro Avg@32 of 49.66 after 150 rollout batches, comparable to the 49.56 reached after 600 batches with one epoch. These results provide preliminary evidence that PNPO can be advantageous as training moves further off-policy.

Prompt sensitivity, which refers to how strongly the output of a large language model (LLM) depends on the exact wording of its input prompt, raises concerns among users about the LLM's stability and reliability. In this work, we consider LLMs as multivariate functions and perform a first-order Taylor expansion, thereby analyzing the relationship between meaning-preserving prompts, their gradients, and the log probabilities of the model's next token. We derive an upper bound on the difference between log probabilities using the Cauchy-Schwarz inequality. We show that LLMs do not internally cluster similar inputs like smaller neural networks do, but instead disperse them. This dispersing behavior leads to an excessively high upper bound on the difference of log probabilities between two meaning-preserving prompts, making it difficult to effectively reduce to 0. In our analysis, we also show which types of meaning-preserving prompt variants are more likely to introduce prompt sensitivity risks in LLMs. In addition, we demonstrate that the upper bound is strongly correlated with an existing prompt sensitivity metric, PromptSensiScore. Moreover, by analyzing the logit variance, we find that prompt templates typically exert a greater influence on logits than the questions themselves. Overall, our results provide a general interpretation for why current LLMs can be highly sensitive to prompts with the same meaning, offering crucial evidence for understanding the prompt sensitivity of LLMs. Code for experiments is available at https://github.com/ku-nlp/Understanding_the_Prompt_Sensitivity.

Deploying LLMs raises two coupled challenges: (1) monitoring - estimating where a model underperforms as traffic and domains drift - and (2) improvement - prioritizing data acquisition to close the largest performance gaps. We test whether an inference-time signal can estimate slice-level accuracy under domain shift. For each response, we compute an output-entropy profile from final-layer next-token probabilities (from top-k logprobs) and summarize it with eleven statistics. A lightweight classifier predicts instance correctness, and averaging predicted probabilities yields a domain-level accuracy estimate. We evaluate on ten STEM reasoning benchmarks with exhaustive train/test compositions (k in {1,2,3,4}; all "10 choose k" combinations), across nine LLMs from six families (3B-20B). Estimates often track held-out benchmark accuracy, and several models show near-monotonic ordering of domains. Output-entropy profiles are thus an accessible signal for scalable monitoring and for targeting data acquisition.

System logs represent a valuable source of Cyber Threat Intelligence (CTI), capturing attacker behaviors, exploited vulnerabilities, and traces of malicious activity. Yet their utility is often limited by lack of structure, semantic inconsistency, and fragmentation across devices and sessions. Extracting actionable CTI from logs therefore requires approaches that can reconcile noisy, heterogeneous data into coherent and interoperable representations. We introduce OntoLogX, an autonomous Artificial Intelligence (AI) agent that leverages Large Language Models (LLMs) to transform raw logs into ontology-grounded Knowledge Graphs (KGs). OntoLogX integrates a lightweight log ontology with Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG) and iterative correction steps, ensuring that generated KGs are syntactically and semantically valid. Beyond event-level analysis, the system aggregates KGs into sessions and employs a LLM to predict MITRE ATT&CK tactics, linking low-level log evidence to higher-level adversarial objectives. We evaluate OntoLogX on both logs from a public benchmark and a real-world honeypot dataset, demonstrating robust KG generation across multiple KGs backends and accurate mapping of adversarial activity to ATT&CK tactics. Results highlight the benefits of retrieval and correction for precision and recall, the effectiveness of code-oriented models in structured log analysis, and the value of ontology-grounded representations for actionable CTI extraction.

The proliferation of Large Language Models (LLMs) accessed via black-box APIs introduces a significant trust challenge: users pay for services based on advertised model capabilities (e.g., size, performance), but providers may covertly substitute the specified model with a cheaper, lower-quality alternative to reduce operational costs. This lack of transparency undermines fairness, erodes trust, and complicates reliable benchmarking. Detecting such substitutions is difficult due to the black-box nature, typically limiting interaction to input-output queries. This paper formalizes the problem of model substitution detection in LLM APIs. We systematically evaluate existing verification techniques, including output-based statistical tests, benchmark evaluations, and log probability analysis, under various realistic attack scenarios like model quantization, randomized substitution, and benchmark evasion. Our findings reveal the limitations of methods relying solely on text outputs, especially against subtle or adaptive attacks. While log probability analysis offers stronger guarantees when available, its accessibility is often limited. We conclude by discussing the potential of hardware-based solutions like Trusted Execution Environments (TEEs) as a pathway towards provable model integrity, highlighting the trade-offs between security, performance, and provider adoption. Code is available at https://github.com/sunblaze-ucb/llm-api-audit

This paper proposes an approach to analyze an event log of a business process in order to generate case-level recommendations of treatments that maximize the probability of a given outcome. Users classify the attributes in the event log into controllable and non-controllable, where the former correspond to attributes that can be altered during an execution of the process (the possible treatments). We use an action rule mining technique to identify treatments that co-occur with the outcome under some conditions. Since action rules are generated based on correlation rather than causation, we then use a causal machine learning technique, specifically uplift trees, to discover subgroups of cases for which a treatment has a high causal effect on the outcome after adjusting for confounding variables. We test the relevance of this approach using an event log of a loan application process and compare our findings with recommendations manually produced by process mining experts.

We evaluate language models' capability to generate novel research ideas through the lens of compression. We aim to lower-bound the potentially tiny probability that a language model generates the essence of a future research idea without any hints. Rather than estimate this probability through expensive repeated sampling, our Priced Guidance framework measures the compression cost: how many additional bits of information are needed to guide the model to recover the target idea. We prove that if the model can recover the target idea with at most K bits of guidance in expectation, then it can generate the idea without any guidance with probability at least 2^{-K}. In our framework, the language model, called the generator, can pose a sequence of multiple-choice questions and specify a probability distribution over possible answers. A guide, which is a language model with access to the target idea, selects answers. If a selected answer has prior probability p, the generator pays -log_2 p bits. The generator aims to produce an idea that matches the essence of the target idea with minimal cumulative cost. This cumulative cost equals, up to an additive constant, the number of bits of information sent by the guide. Using this methodology, we evaluate five generator LLMs (Opus 5, Fable 5.1, GPT-6 Astra, GPT-5.6 Sol, and GLM 5.3) on the core ideas in 87 recent high-quality deep learning papers and we use LLM as judge to determine whether the generated idea matches the target in terms of the central research object and defining mechanism. Fable 5.1 achieves the lowest median compression cost at 69.9 bits, substantially lower than gzip's median of 5,712 bits for losslessly compressing the summary of the target idea. A uniform ensemble of Fable 5.1, Opus 5, and Astra further reduces the median compression cost to 55.8 bits and improves the generation probability lower bound by 18,000 times.

We incorporate discrete and continuous time Markov processes as building blocks into probabilistic graphical models with latent and observed variables. We introduce the automatic Backward Filtering Forward Guiding (BFFG) paradigm (Mider et al., 2021) for programmable inference on latent states and model parameters. Our starting point is a generative model, a forward description of the probabilistic process dynamics. We backpropagate the information provided by observations through the model to transform the generative (forward) model into a pre-conditional model guided by the data. It approximates the actual conditional model with known likelihood-ratio between the two. The backward filter and the forward change of measure are suitable to be incorporated into a probabilistic programming context because they can be formulated as a set of transformation rules. The guided generative model can be incorporated in different approaches to efficiently sample latent states and parameters conditional on observations. We show applicability in a variety of settings, including Markov chains with discrete state space, interacting particle systems, state space models, branching diffusions and Gamma processes.

Software and System logs record runtime information about processes executing within a system. These logs have become the most critical and ubiquitous forms of observability data that help developers understand system behavior, monitor system health and resolve issues. However, the volume of logs generated can be humongous (of the order of petabytes per day) especially for complex distributed systems, such as cloud, search engine, social media, etc. This has propelled a lot of research on developing AI-based log based analytics and intelligence solutions that can process huge volume of raw logs and generate insights. In order to enable users to perform multiple types of AI-based log analysis tasks in a uniform manner, we introduce LogAI (https://github.com/salesforce/logai), a one-stop open source library for log analytics and intelligence. LogAI supports tasks such as log summarization, log clustering and log anomaly detection. It adopts the OpenTelemetry data model, to enable compatibility with different log management platforms. LogAI provides a unified model interface and provides popular time-series, statistical learning and deep learning models. Alongside this, LogAI also provides an out-of-the-box GUI for users to conduct interactive analysis. With LogAI, we can also easily benchmark popular deep learning algorithms for log anomaly detection without putting in redundant effort to process the logs. We have opensourced LogAI to cater to a wide range of applications benefiting both academic research and industrial prototyping.

Learning from preference-based feedback has recently gained traction as a promising approach to align language models with human interests. While these aligned generative models have demonstrated impressive capabilities across various tasks, their dependence on high-quality human preference data poses a bottleneck in practical applications. Specifically, noisy (incorrect and ambiguous) preference pairs in the dataset might restrict the language models from capturing human intent accurately. While practitioners have recently proposed heuristics to mitigate the effect of noisy preferences, a complete theoretical understanding of their workings remain elusive. In this work, we aim to bridge this gap by by introducing a general framework for policy optimization in the presence of random preference flips. We focus on the direct preference optimization (DPO) algorithm in particular since it assumes that preferences adhere to the Bradley-Terry-Luce (BTL) model, raising concerns about the impact of noisy data on the learned policy. We design a novel loss function, which de-bias the effect of noise on average, making a policy trained by minimizing that loss robust to the noise. Under log-linear parameterization of the policy class and assuming good feature coverage of the SFT policy, we prove that the sub-optimality gap of the proposed robust DPO (rDPO) policy compared to the optimal policy is of the order O(1{1-2epsilon}frac{d{n}}), where epsilon < 1/2 is flip rate of labels, d is policy parameter dimension and n is size of dataset. Our experiments on IMDb sentiment generation and Anthropic's helpful-harmless dataset show that rDPO is robust to noise in preference labels compared to vanilla DPO and other heuristics proposed by practitioners.

Due to the sheer size of software logs, developers rely on automated techniques for log analysis. One of the first and most important steps of automated log analysis is log abstraction, which parses the raw logs into a structured format. Prior log abstraction techniques aim to identify and abstract all the dynamic variables in logs and output a static log template for automated log analysis. However, these abstracted dynamic variables may also contain important information that is useful to different tasks in log analysis. In this paper, we investigate the characteristics of dynamic variables and their importance in practice, and explore the potential of a variable-aware log abstraction technique. Through manual investigations and surveys with practitioners, we find that different categories of dynamic variables record various information that can be important depending on the given tasks, the distinction of dynamic variables in log abstraction can further assist in log analysis. We then propose a deep learning based log abstraction approach, named VALB, which can identify different categories of dynamic variables and preserve the value of specified categories of dynamic variables along with the log templates (i.e., variable-aware log abstraction). Through the evaluation on a widely used log abstraction benchmark, we find that VALB outperforms other state-of-the-art log abstraction techniques on general log abstraction (i.e., when abstracting all the dynamic variables) and also achieves a high variable-aware log abstraction accuracy that further identifies the category of the dynamic variables. Our study highlights the potential of leveraging the important information recorded in the dynamic variables to further improve the process of log analysis.

Most agent frameworks are built around the language model: a conversation loop comes first, then tools, then rules, and finally a logging layer bolted on for observability, with state persisted as retrievable "memory." We describe ActiveGraph, a runtime that inverts this arrangement. The append-only event log is the source of truth; the working graph is a deterministic projection of that log; and behaviors--ordinary functions, classes, LLM-backed routines, or logic attached to typed edges--react to changes in the graph and emit new events. No component instructs another; coordination happens entirely through the shared graph. This single design decision yields three properties that retrieval-and-summarization memory systems do not provide: deterministic replay of any run from its log, cheap forking that branches a run at any event without re-executing the shared prefix, and end-to-end lineage from a high-level goal down to the individual model call that produced each artifact. We present the architecture, a determinism contract that makes replay sound, and a worked diligence example whose full causal structure is reconstructable from the log alone. We discuss--without claiming to demonstrate--why this substrate is unusually well suited to self-improving agents, and how it extends the BabyAGI lineage and prior graph-memory research.

We present a state-of-the-art model for fine-grained probability estimation of propositions conditioned on context. Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have significantly enhanced their reasoning capabilities, particularly on well-defined tasks with complete information. However, LLMs continue to struggle with making accurate and well-calibrated probabilistic predictions under uncertainty or partial information. While incorporating uncertainty into model predictions often boosts performance, obtaining reliable estimates of that uncertainty remains understudied. In particular, LLM probability estimates tend to be coarse and biased towards more frequent numbers. Through a combination of human and synthetic data creation and assessment, scaling to larger models, and better supervision, we propose a set of strong and precise probability estimation models. We conduct systematic evaluations across tasks that rely on conditional probability estimation and show that our approach consistently outperforms existing fine-tuned and prompting-based methods by a large margin.

Large reasoning models have recently demonstrated strong performance on complex tasks that require long chain-of-thought reasoning, through supervised fine-tuning on large-scale and high-quality datasets. To construct such datasets, existing pipelines generate long reasoning data from more capable Large Language Models (LLMs) and apply manually heuristic or naturalness-based selection methods to filter high-quality samples. Despite the proven effectiveness of naturalness-based data selection, which ranks data by the average log probability assigned by LLMs, our analysis shows that, when applied to LLM reasoning datasets, it systematically prefers samples with longer reasoning steps (i.e., more tokens per step) rather than higher-quality ones, a phenomenon we term step length confounding. Through quantitative analysis, we attribute this phenomenon to low-probability first tokens in reasoning steps; longer steps dilute their influence, thereby inflating the average log probabilities. To address this issue, we propose two variant methods: ASLEC-DROP, which drops first-token probabilities when computing average log probability, and ASLEC-CASL, which applies a causal debiasing regression to remove the first tokens' confounding effect. Experiments across four LLMs and five evaluation benchmarks demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in mitigating the step length confounding problem.

We present the Bayesian Linguistic Forecaster (BLF), an agentic system for binary forecasting that achieves state-of-the-art performance on the ForecastBench benchmark. The system is built on three ideas. (1) Linguistic belief state: a semi-structured representation combining numerical probability estimates with natural-language evidence summaries, updated by the LLM at each step of an iterative tool-use loop. This contrasts with the common approach of appending all retrieved evidence to an ever-growing, unstructured context. (2) Hierarchical multi-trial aggregation: running K independent trials and combining them using logit-space averaging shrinkage with a data-dependent prior. (3) Hierarchical calibration: Platt scaling with a hierarchical prior, which avoids over-shrinking extreme predictions for sources with skewed base rates. On 400 questions from the ForecastBench leaderboard, BLF outperforms all the top public methods, including Cassi, GPT-5, Grok~4.20, and Foresight-32B. Careful ablation studies, using mixed effects analysis to control for question variability (which accounts for 62\% of the variance in performance), reveals that all 3 components contribute to the overall gains, but some components matter more than others, depending on the base LLM, and the setting (e.g.\ with or without a crowd prior). All our experiments are based on a robust back-testing framework which we develop, which has a leakage rate below 1.5\%, and may be of independent interest.

Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) has become a standard technique for aligning language models with human preferences in a supervised manner. Despite its empirical success, the theoretical justification behind its log-ratio reward parameterization remains incomplete. In this work, we address this gap by utilizing the Differential Information Distribution (DID): a distribution over token sequences that captures the information gained during policy updates. First, we show that when preference labels encode the differential information required to transform a reference policy into a target policy, the log-ratio reward in DPO emerges as the uniquely optimal form for learning the target policy via preference optimization. This result naturally yields a closed-form expression for the optimal sampling distribution over rejected responses. Second, we find that the condition for preferences to encode differential information is fundamentally linked to an implicit assumption regarding log-margin ordered policies-an inductive bias widely used in preference optimization yet previously unrecognized. Finally, by analyzing the entropy of the DID, we characterize how learning low-entropy differential information reinforces the policy distribution, while high-entropy differential information induces a smoothing effect, which explains the log-likelihood displacement phenomenon. We validate our theoretical findings in synthetic experiments and extend them to real-world instruction-following datasets. Our results suggest that learning high-entropy differential information is crucial for general instruction-following, while learning low-entropy differential information benefits knowledge-intensive question answering. Overall, our work presents a unifying perspective on the DPO objective, the structure of preference data, and resulting policy behaviors through the lens of differential information.

Log analysis is crucial for ensuring the orderly and stable operation of information systems, particularly in the field of Artificial Intelligence for IT Operations (AIOps). Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated significant potential in natural language processing tasks. In the AIOps domain, they excel in tasks such as anomaly detection, root cause analysis of faults, operations and maintenance script generation, and alert information summarization. However, the performance of current LLMs in log analysis tasks remains inadequately validated. To address this gap, we introduce LogEval, a comprehensive benchmark suite designed to evaluate the capabilities of LLMs in various log analysis tasks for the first time. This benchmark covers tasks such as log parsing, log anomaly detection, log fault diagnosis, and log summarization. LogEval evaluates each task using 4,000 publicly available log data entries and employs 15 different prompts for each task to ensure a thorough and fair assessment. By rigorously evaluating leading LLMs, we demonstrate the impact of various LLM technologies on log analysis performance, focusing on aspects such as self-consistency and few-shot contextual learning. We also discuss findings related to model quantification, Chinese-English question-answering evaluation, and prompt engineering. These findings provide insights into the strengths and weaknesses of LLMs in multilingual environments and the effectiveness of different prompt strategies. Various evaluation methods are employed for different tasks to accurately measure the performance of LLMs in log analysis, ensuring a comprehensive assessment. The insights gained from LogEvals evaluation reveal the strengths and limitations of LLMs in log analysis tasks, providing valuable guidance for researchers and practitioners.

Software systems often record important runtime information in logs to help with troubleshooting. Log-based anomaly detection has become a key research area that aims to identify system issues through log data, ultimately enhancing the reliability of software systems. Traditional deep learning methods often struggle to capture the semantic information embedded in log data, which is typically organized in natural language. In this paper, we propose LogLLM, a log-based anomaly detection framework that leverages large language models (LLMs). LogLLM employs BERT for extracting semantic vectors from log messages, while utilizing Llama, a transformer decoder-based model, for classifying log sequences. Additionally, we introduce a projector to align the vector representation spaces of BERT and Llama, ensuring a cohesive understanding of log semantics. Unlike conventional methods that require log parsers to extract templates, LogLLM preprocesses log messages with regular expressions, streamlining the entire process. Our framework is trained through a novel three-stage procedure designed to enhance performance and adaptability. Experimental results across four public datasets demonstrate that LogLLM outperforms state-of-the-art methods. Even when handling unstable logs, it effectively captures the semantic meaning of log messages and detects anomalies accurately.

Reinforcement learning (RL) with verifiable rewards constructs trajectory-level advantage estimates, yet it often fails to credit the few pivotal decisions that determine outcomes in long-horizon, multi-turn agentic tasks. Recent work introduces privileged self-distillation for credit assignment, providing denser supervision, but it remains unclear how such local signals should represent sequential credit. We propose AgentOPSD, a critic-free, recursive method for turn-level credit assignment in agentic reinforcement learning. AgentOPSD aggregates token-level teacher-student log-probability gaps into turn-level evidence and recursively updates a Bayesian belief state in log-odds space. This yields a principled reweighting scheme that converts sparse outcome supervision into turn-level credit signals and identifies pivotal turns through the marginal belief revision between consecutive states. The method is fully compatible with standard policy optimization and requires neither an additional critic nor extra rollouts. We evaluate AgentOPSD on ALFWorld, WebShop, and Search-QA using Qwen2.5 models at two scales (3B and 7B). AgentOPSD outperforms GRPO and strong self-distillation baselines, achieving 89.1% success on ALFWorld with Qwen2.5-7B. Ablation studies attribute the gains to turn-level aggregation and history-dependent recursive belief updates.

Policy Compliance Detection (PCD) is a task we encounter when reasoning over texts, e.g. legal frameworks. Previous work to address PCD relies heavily on modeling the task as a special case of Recognizing Textual Entailment. Entailment is applicable to the problem of PCD, however viewing the policy as a single proposition, as opposed to multiple interlinked propositions, yields poor performance and lacks explainability. To address this challenge, more recent proposals for PCD have argued for decomposing policies into expression trees consisting of questions connected with logic operators. Question answering is used to obtain answers to these questions with respect to a scenario. Finally, the expression tree is evaluated in order to arrive at an overall solution. However, this work assumes expression trees are provided by experts, thus limiting its applicability to new policies. In this work, we learn how to infer expression trees automatically from policy texts. We ensure the validity of the inferred trees by introducing constrained decoding using a finite state automaton to ensure the generation of valid trees. We determine through automatic evaluation that 63% of the expression trees generated by our constrained generation model are logically equivalent to gold trees. Human evaluation shows that 88% of trees generated by our model are correct.

We study causal logistic bandits with counterfactual fairness constraints. The causal structure is given through known factual and counterfactual feature maps that share an unknown logistic reward parameter, but the learner observes only factual rewards. Consequently, the directions determining counterfactual feasibility need not be identifiable from the available feedback. The closest prior analyses either omit a coverage condition or impose a comparatively strong one, and do not establish matching lower bounds. We first show that some coverage condition is necessary: without a coverage-type restriction, factually indistinguishable environments with different optimal fair actions force Ω(T) expected joint loss. Under a weaker full-rank condition on the factual covariance pooled across actions, we identify a target-specific information scale V_star that measures the difficulty of estimating rewards and counterfactual effects from factual feedback. We construct worst-case families satisfying this condition on which every policy incurs expected joint loss Ωleft(left[V_starmin{log K,d}right]^{1/3}T^{2/3}right). We also give an explore--then--exploit procedure tuned using V_star and an adaptive algorithm that does not require its value. Both algorithms achieve max{R_T,V_T}=Oleft(left[V_starmin{log K,d}right]^{1/3}T^{2/3}+κd/σ_0^2right), where R_T is regret relative to the best fair action and V_T denotes the cumulative stage-wise positive violations. Thus the upper and lower bounds match in their leading dependence on T, V_star, and min{log K,d}, up to logarithmic factors.

A probability forecast or probabilistic classifier is reliable or calibrated if the predicted probabilities are matched by ex post observed frequencies, as examined visually in reliability diagrams. The classical binning and counting approach to plotting reliability diagrams has been hampered by a lack of stability under unavoidable, ad hoc implementation decisions. Here we introduce the CORP approach, which generates provably statistically Consistent, Optimally binned, and Reproducible reliability diagrams in an automated way. CORP is based on non-parametric isotonic regression and implemented via the Pool-adjacent-violators (PAV) algorithm - essentially, the CORP reliability diagram shows the graph of the PAV- (re)calibrated forecast probabilities. The CORP approach allows for uncertainty quantification via either resampling techniques or asymptotic theory, furnishes a new numerical measure of miscalibration, and provides a CORP based Brier score decomposition that generalizes to any proper scoring rule. We anticipate that judicious uses of the PAV algorithm yield improved tools for diagnostics and inference for a very wide range of statistical and machine learning methods.

The success of Large Language Models (LLMs) relies heavily on the huge amount of pre-training data learned in the pre-training phase. The opacity of the pre-training process and the training data causes the results of many benchmark tests to become unreliable. If any model has been trained on a benchmark test set, it can seriously hinder the health of the field. In order to automate and efficiently test the capabilities of large language models, numerous mainstream benchmarks adopt a multiple-choice format. As the swapping of the contents of multiple-choice options does not affect the meaning of the question itself, we propose a simple and effective data leakage detection method based on this property. Specifically, we shuffle the contents of the options in the data to generate the corresponding derived data sets, and then detect data leakage based on the model's log probability distribution over the derived data sets. If there is a maximum and outlier in the set of log probabilities, it indicates that the data is leaked. Our method is able to work under black-box conditions without access to model training data or weights, effectively identifying data leakage from benchmark test sets in model pre-training data, including both normal scenarios and complex scenarios where options may have been shuffled intentionally or unintentionally. Through experiments based on two LLMs and benchmark designs, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our method. In addition, we evaluate the degree of data leakage of 31 mainstream open-source LLMs on four benchmark datasets and give a ranking of the leaked LLMs for each benchmark, and we find that the Qwen family of LLMs has the highest degree of data leakage.

We study the problem of estimating the distribution of the return of a policy using an offline dataset that is not generated from the policy, i.e., distributional offline policy evaluation (OPE). We propose an algorithm called Fitted Likelihood Estimation (FLE), which conducts a sequence of Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) and has the flexibility of integrating any state-of-the-art probabilistic generative models as long as it can be trained via MLE. FLE can be used for both finite-horizon and infinite-horizon discounted settings where rewards can be multi-dimensional vectors. Our theoretical results show that for both finite-horizon and infinite-horizon discounted settings, FLE can learn distributions that are close to the ground truth under total variation distance and Wasserstein distance, respectively. Our theoretical results hold under the conditions that the offline data covers the test policy's traces and that the supervised learning MLE procedures succeed. Experimentally, we demonstrate the performance of FLE with two generative models, Gaussian mixture models and diffusion models. For the multi-dimensional reward setting, FLE with diffusion models is capable of estimating the complicated distribution of the return of a test policy.

Agent benchmarks typically report only final outcomes: pass or fail. This threatens evaluation credibility in three ways. First, scores may be inflated or deflated by shortcuts and benchmark artifacts, misrepresenting capability. Second, benchmark performance may fail to predict real-world utility due to scaffold limitations and recurring failure modes. Finally, capability scores may conceal dangerous or catastrophic actions taken by the agent. We argue that log analysis -- the systematic tracking and analysis of the inputs, execution, and outputs of an AI agent -- is necessary to overcome these validity threats and promote credible agent evaluation. In this paper, we (1) present a taxonomy of threats to credible evaluation documented through log analysis, and (2) develop a set of guiding principles for log analysis. We illustrate these principles on tau-Bench Airline, revealing that pass^5 performance was under-elicited by nearly 50% and surfacing deployment failure modes invisible to outcome metrics. We conclude with pragmatic recommendations to increase uptake of log analysis, directed at diverse stakeholders including benchmark creators, model developers, independent evaluators, and deployers.

A key strength of Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) is its learned critic, which uses historical trajectories collected during reinforcement learning to estimate expected returns and reduce policy-gradient variance. However, we find that the critic is also a major source of instability in reinforcement learning for large language models (LLMs). We identify two critic failure modes that destabilize PPO. First, filtering truncated rollouts from both actor and critic shifts the policy objective to reward conditioned on completion, allowing truncation to increase even as conditional reward improves. Second, heterogeneous return noise can cause high-variance prompts to dominate critic updates in finite batches. We introduce EasyPPO to address these failures. Actor-only overlong filtering trains the critic on returns from both completed and truncated rollouts. Noise-normalized critic regression weights each prompt's critic loss by the inverse standard deviation of its sampled returns, balancing noise contributions across prompts. Moderately smaller critic mini-batches confine outlier influence to fewer rollouts during gradient clipping. Across continuous-reward coding on FrontierCS, binary-reward mathematical reasoning on AIME24, and multi-turn search on Search-R1, EasyPPO remains stable throughout the full training horizon and consistently outperforms vanilla PPO, VAPO, and HL-Gauss PPO. Its best validation scores show relative gains of 14.89%, 2.28%, and 9.47% over PPO, respectively.

System logs are a critical resource for monitoring and managing distributed systems, providing insights into failures and anomalous behavior. Traditional log analysis techniques, including template-based and sequence-driven approaches, often lose important semantic information or struggle with ambiguous log patterns. To address this, we present EnrichLog, a training-free, entry-based anomaly detection framework that enriches raw log entries with both corpus-specific and sample-specific knowledge. EnrichLog incorporates contextual information, including historical examples and reasoning derived from the corpus, to enable more accurate and interpretable anomaly detection. The framework leverages retrieval-augmented generation to integrate relevant contextual knowledge without requiring retraining. We evaluate EnrichLog on four large-scale system log benchmark datasets and compare it against five baseline methods. Our results show that EnrichLog consistently improves anomaly detection performance, effectively handles ambiguous log entries, and maintains efficient inference. Furthermore, incorporating both corpus- and sample-specific knowledge enhances model confidence and detection accuracy, making EnrichLog well-suited for practical deployments.

Diffusion language models (DLMs) enable parallel, order-agnostic generation with iterative refinement, offering a flexible alternative to autoregressive large language models (LLMs). However, adapting reinforcement learning (RL) fine-tuning to DLMs remains an open challenge because of the intractable likelihood. Pioneering work such as diffu-GRPO estimated token-level likelihoods via one-step unmasking. While computationally efficient, this approach is severely biased. A more principled foundation lies in sequence-level likelihoods, where the evidence lower bound (ELBO) serves as a surrogate. Yet, despite this clean mathematical connection, ELBO-based methods have seen limited adoption due to the prohibitive cost of likelihood evaluation. In this work, we revisit ELBO estimation and disentangle its sources of variance. This decomposition motivates reducing variance through fast, deterministic integral approximations along a few pivotal dimensions. Building on this insight, we introduce Group Diffusion Policy Optimization (GDPO), a new RL algorithm tailored for DLMs. GDPO leverages simple yet effective Semi-deterministic Monte Carlo schemes to mitigate the variance explosion of ELBO estimators under vanilla double Monte Carlo sampling, yielding a provably lower-variance estimator under tight evaluation budgets. Empirically, GDPO achieves consistent gains over pretrained checkpoints and outperforms diffu-GRPO, one of the state-of-the-art baselines, on the majority of math, reasoning, and coding benchmarks.

Log anomaly detection is crucial for preserving the security of operating systems. Depending on the source of log data collection, various information is recorded in logs that can be considered log modalities. In light of this intuition, unimodal methods often struggle by ignoring the different modalities of log data. Meanwhile, multimodal methods fail to handle the interactions between these modalities. Applying multimodal sentiment analysis to log anomaly detection, we propose CoLog, a framework that collaboratively encodes logs utilizing various modalities. CoLog utilizes collaborative transformers and multi-head impressed attention to learn interactions among several modalities, ensuring comprehensive anomaly detection. To handle the heterogeneity caused by these interactions, CoLog incorporates a modality adaptation layer, which adapts the representations from different log modalities. This methodology enables CoLog to learn nuanced patterns and dependencies within the data, enhancing its anomaly detection capabilities. Extensive experiments demonstrate CoLog's superiority over existing state-of-the-art methods. Furthermore, in detecting both point and collective anomalies, CoLog achieves a mean precision of 99.63%, a mean recall of 99.59%, and a mean F1 score of 99.61% across seven benchmark datasets for log-based anomaly detection. The comprehensive detection capabilities of CoLog make it highly suitable for cybersecurity, system monitoring, and operational efficiency. CoLog represents a significant advancement in log anomaly detection, providing a sophisticated and effective solution to point and collective anomaly detection through a unified framework and a solution to the complex challenges automatic log data analysis poses. We also provide the implementation of CoLog at https://github.com/NasirzadehMoh/CoLog.

Prospect Theory (PT) models human decision-making behaviour under uncertainty, among which linguistic uncertainty is commonly adopted in real-world scenarios. Although recent studies have developed some frameworks to test PT parameters for Large Language Models (LLMs), few have considered the fitness of PT itself on LLMs. Moreover, whether PT is robust under linguistic uncertainty perturbations, especially epistemic markers (e.g. "likely"), remains highly under-explored. To address these gaps, we design a three-stage workflow based on a classic behavioural economics experimental setup. We first estimate PT parameters with economics questions and evaluate PT's fitness with performance metrics. We then derive probability mappings for epistemic markers in the same context, and inject these mappings into the prompt to investigate the stability of PT parameters. Our findings suggest that modelling LLMs' decision-making with PT is not consistently reliable across models, and applying Prospect Theory to LLMs is likely not robust to epistemic uncertainty. The findings caution against the deployment of PT-based frameworks in real-world applications where epistemic ambiguity is prevalent, giving valuable insights in behaviour interpretation and future alignment direction for LLM decision-making.

Among on-policy reinforcement learning algorithms, Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) demonstrates is widely favored for its simplicity, numerical stability, and strong empirical performance. Standard PPO relies on surrogate objectives defined via importance ratios, which require evaluating policy likelihood that is typically straightforward when the policy is modeled as a Gaussian distribution. However, extending PPO to more expressive, high-capacity policy models such as continuous normalizing flows (CNFs), also known as flow-matching models, is challenging because likelihood evaluation along the full flow trajectory is computationally expensive and often numerically unstable. To resolve this issue, we propose PolicyFlow, a novel on-policy CNF-based reinforcement learning algorithm that integrates expressive CNF policies with PPO-style objectives without requiring likelihood evaluation along the full flow path. PolicyFlow approximates importance ratios using velocity field variations along a simple interpolation path, reducing computational overhead without compromising training stability. To further prevent mode collapse and further encourage diverse behaviors, we propose the Brownian Regularizer, an implicit policy entropy regularizer inspired by Brownian motion, which is conceptually elegant and computationally lightweight. Experiments on diverse tasks across various environments including MultiGoal, PointMaze, IsaacLab and MuJoCo Playground show that PolicyFlow achieves competitive or superior performance compared to PPO using Gaussian policies and flow-based baselines including FPO and DPPO. Notably, results on MultiGoal highlight PolicyFlow's ability to capture richer multimodal action distributions.

Log data have facilitated various tasks of software development and maintenance, such as testing, debugging and diagnosing. Due to the unstructured nature of logs, log parsing is typically required to transform log messages into structured data for automated log analysis. Given the abundance of log parsers that employ various techniques, evaluating these tools to comprehend their characteristics and performance becomes imperative. Loghub serves as a commonly used dataset for benchmarking log parsers, but it suffers from limited scale and representativeness, posing significant challenges for studies to comprehensively evaluate existing log parsers or develop new methods. This limitation is particularly pronounced when assessing these log parsers for production use. To address these limitations, we provide a new collection of annotated log datasets, denoted Loghub-2.0, which can better reflect the characteristics of log data in real-world software systems. Loghub-2.0 comprises 14 datasets with an average of 3.6 million log lines in each dataset. Based on Loghub-2.0, we conduct a thorough re-evaluation of 15 state-of-the-art log parsers in a more rigorous and practical setting. Particularly, we introduce a new evaluation metric to mitigate the sensitivity of existing metrics to imbalanced data distributions. We are also the first to investigate the granular performance of log parsers on logs that represent rare system events, offering in-depth details for software diagnosis. Accurately parsing such logs is essential, yet it remains a challenge. We believe this work could shed light on the evaluation and design of log parsers in practical settings, thereby facilitating their deployment in production systems.

This paper presents a case study on the design, administration, post-processing, and evaluation of surveys on large language models (LLMs). It comprises two components: (1) A statistical method for eliciting beliefs encoded in LLMs. We introduce statistical measures and evaluation metrics that quantify the probability of an LLM "making a choice", the associated uncertainty, and the consistency of that choice. (2) We apply this method to study what moral beliefs are encoded in different LLMs, especially in ambiguous cases where the right choice is not obvious. We design a large-scale survey comprising 680 high-ambiguity moral scenarios (e.g., "Should I tell a white lie?") and 687 low-ambiguity moral scenarios (e.g., "Should I stop for a pedestrian on the road?"). Each scenario includes a description, two possible actions, and auxiliary labels indicating violated rules (e.g., "do not kill"). We administer the survey to 28 open- and closed-source LLMs. We find that (a) in unambiguous scenarios, most models "choose" actions that align with commonsense. In ambiguous cases, most models express uncertainty. (b) Some models are uncertain about choosing the commonsense action because their responses are sensitive to the question-wording. (c) Some models reflect clear preferences in ambiguous scenarios. Specifically, closed-source models tend to agree with each other.

This paper presents a novel risk-sensitive trading agent combining reinforcement learning and large language models (LLMs). We extend the Conditional Value-at-Risk Proximal Policy Optimization (CPPO) algorithm, by adding risk assessment and trading recommendation signals generated by a LLM from financial news. Our approach is backtested on the Nasdaq-100 index benchmark, using financial news data from the FNSPID dataset and the DeepSeek V3, Qwen 2.5 and Llama 3.3 language models. The code, data, and trading agents are available at: https://github.com/benstaf/FinRL_DeepSeek

Logs are imperative in the development and maintenance process of many software systems. They record detailed runtime information that allows developers and support engineers to monitor their systems and dissect anomalous behaviors and errors. The increasing scale and complexity of modern software systems, however, make the volume of logs explodes. In many cases, the traditional way of manual log inspection becomes impractical. Many recent studies, as well as industrial tools, resort to powerful text search and machine learning-based analytics solutions. Due to the unstructured nature of logs, a first crucial step is to parse log messages into structured data for subsequent analysis. In recent years, automated log parsing has been widely studied in both academia and industry, producing a series of log parsers by different techniques. To better understand the characteristics of these log parsers, in this paper, we present a comprehensive evaluation study on automated log parsing and further release the tools and benchmarks for easy reuse. More specifically, we evaluate 13 log parsers on a total of 16 log datasets spanning distributed systems, supercomputers, operating systems, mobile systems, server applications, and standalone software. We report the benchmarking results in terms of accuracy, robustness, and efficiency, which are of practical importance when deploying automated log parsing in production. We also share the success stories and lessons learned in an industrial application at Huawei. We believe that our work could serve as the basis and provide valuable guidance to future research and deployment of automated log parsing.

One challenge in fact checking is the ability to improve the transparency of the decision. We present a fact checking method that uses reference information in knowledge graphs (KGs) to assess claims and explain its decisions. KGs contain a formal representation of knowledge with semantic descriptions of entities and their relationships. We exploit such rich semantics to produce interpretable explanations for the fact checking output. As information in a KG is inevitably incomplete, we rely on logical rule discovery and on Web text mining to gather the evidence to assess a given claim. Uncertain rules and facts are turned into logical programs and the checking task is modeled as an inference problem in a probabilistic extension of answer set programs. Experiments show that the probabilistic inference enables the efficient labeling of claims with interpretable explanations, and the quality of the results is higher than state of the art baselines.

Predictive models often need to work with incomplete information in real-world tasks. Consequently, they must provide reliable probability or confidence estimation, especially in large-scale decision-making and planning tasks. Current large language models (LLMs) are insufficient for accurate estimations, but they can generate relevant factors that may affect the probabilities, produce coarse-grained probabilities when the information is more complete, and help determine which factors are relevant to specific downstream contexts. In this paper, we make use of these capabilities of LLMs to provide a significantly more accurate probabilistic estimation. We propose BIRD, a novel probabilistic inference framework that aligns a Bayesian network with LLM abductions and then estimates more accurate probabilities in a deduction step. We show BIRD provides reliable probability estimations that are 30% better than those provided directly by LLM baselines. These estimates further contribute to better and more trustworthy decision making.

Probabilistic forecasting estimates the likelihood of uncertain future events. To improve LLM forecasting, existing methods typically learn from binary outcomes to output verbalized forecasts. However, while aggregated human forecasts contain rich information in both the crowd probability estimate and the degree of agreement among forecasters, how to utilize these signals remains underexplored. To address this, we propose the Beta-Bernoulli Calibrator (BBC), which converts an initial point estimate forecast from any model into a distribution over event likelihood, using supervision from both binary outcomes and human forecasts. BBC models event likelihood p sim Beta(α, β) and outcome y sim Bernoulli(p), with the mean as the calibrated point forecast and the variance as the epistemic uncertainty. Our results show that BBC generally provides better calibrated and more accurate forecasts than both traditional post-hoc calibration methods and models fine-tuned specifically for forecasting, while remaining lightweight and having good generalization. We also show that the epistemic uncertainty captured by BBC is a more reliable predictor of forecasting error than verbalized confidence.

IT environments typically have logging mechanisms to monitor system health and detect issues. However, the huge volume of generated logs makes manual inspection impractical, highlighting the importance of automated log analysis in IT Software Support. In this paper, we propose a log analytics tool that leverages Large Language Models (LLMs) for log data processing and issue diagnosis, enabling the generation of automated insights and summaries. We further present a novel approach for efficiently running LLMs on CPUs to process massive log volumes in minimal time without compromising output quality. We share the insights and lessons learned from deployment of the tool - in production since March 2024 - scaled across 70 software products, processing over 2000 tickets for issue diagnosis, achieving a time savings of 300+ man hours and an estimated $15,444 per month in manpower costs compared to the traditional log analysis practices.

On-policy distillation (OPD) transfers teacher knowledge on student-generated trajectories, but efficient sampled objectives reduce the teacher distribution to scalar credit on individual tokens. Such credit indicates whether a token should gain or lose probability, yet leaves the corresponding redistribution unspecified. We recast OPD as teacher-guided probability transport and propose RouteOPD (Routed On-Policy Distillation), which decomposes local teacher--student disagreement into student-excess sources and teacher-deficit destinations and couples them into explicit transport pairs. RouteOPD optimizes pairwise log-odds toward jointly realizable targets obtained from a bounded teacher potential, while adapting the transport budget to the concentration of teacher demand. This formulation directs updates toward teacher-preferred destinations and controls their magnitude within a single transport operator. Experiments across four teacher--student settings and four mathematical-reasoning benchmarks demonstrate that RouteOPD consistently outperforms sampled reverse-KL OPD, with improvements accompanied by higher routing fidelity and lower background leakage. These results demonstrate the effectiveness of explicitly modeling probability transport in on-policy distillation.

Process model forecasting (PMF) aims to predict the process model that will characterize a future period, thereby providing a process-level view of how behavior is expected to evolve. Existing PMF methods, however, forecast directly-follows graphs, which cannot explicitly represent concurrency. We extend PMF to causal nets by forecasting time series of relation and binding counts and using these forecasts to reconstruct future process models with AND/XOR semantics. To evaluate the resulting models, we introduce a protocol that accounts for partial traces and constructs the workflow nets required for conformance checking. Experiments on four event logs show that the forecasted models achieve conformance levels close to those of models re-mined from observations in the corresponding future windows. They also outperform static discovery baselines, which retain high precision on the structurally stable log but exhibit substantial precision losses on the other three logs. Filtering infrequent bindings improves most conformance metrics, although it also removes much of the concurrent behavior captured by the models.

Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) is central to aligning Large Language Models (LLMs) in reasoning tasks with verifiable rewards. However, standard token-level PPO struggles in this setting due to the instability of temporal credit assignment over long Chain-of-Thought (CoT) horizons and the prohibitive memory cost of the value model. While critic-free alternatives like GRPO mitigate these issues, they incur significant computational overhead by requiring multiple samples for baseline estimation, severely limiting training throughput. In this paper, we introduce Sequence-Level PPO (SPPO), a scalable algorithm that harmonizes the sample efficiency of PPO with the stability of outcome-based updates. SPPO reformulates the reasoning process as a Sequence-Level Contextual Bandit problem, employing a decoupled scalar value function to derive low-variance advantage signals without multi-sampling. Extensive experiments on mathematical benchmarks demonstrate that SPPO significantly surpasses standard PPO and matches the performance of computation-heavy group-based methods, offering a resource-efficient framework for aligning reasoning LLMs.

Large Language Models (LLMs) exhibit robust problem-solving capabilities for diverse tasks. However, most LLM-based agents are designed as specific task solvers with sophisticated prompt engineering, rather than agents capable of learning and evolving through interactions. These task solvers necessitate manually crafted prompts to inform task rules and regulate LLM behaviors, inherently incapacitating to address complex dynamic scenarios e.g., large interactive games. In light of this, we propose Agent-Pro: an LLM-based Agent with Policy-level Reflection and Optimization that can learn a wealth of expertise from interactive experiences and progressively elevate its behavioral policy. Specifically, it involves a dynamic belief generation and reflection process for policy evolution. Rather than action-level reflection, Agent-Pro iteratively reflects on past trajectories and beliefs, fine-tuning its irrational beliefs for a better policy. Moreover, a depth-first search is employed for policy optimization, ensuring continual enhancement in policy payoffs. Agent-Pro is evaluated across two games: Blackjack and Texas Hold'em, outperforming vanilla LLM and specialized models. Our results show Agent-Pro can learn and evolve in complex and dynamic scenes, which also benefits numerous LLM-based applications.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly employed in real-world applications, driving the need to evaluate the trustworthiness of their generated text. To this end, reliable uncertainty estimation is essential. Since current LLMs generate text autoregressively through a stochastic process, the same prompt can lead to varying outputs. Consequently, leading uncertainty estimation methods generate and analyze multiple output sequences to determine the LLM's uncertainty. However, generating output sequences is computationally expensive, making these methods impractical at scale. In this work, we inspect the theoretical foundations of the leading methods and explore new directions to enhance their computational efficiency. Building on the framework of proper scoring rules, we find that the negative log-likelihood of the most likely output sequence constitutes a theoretically grounded uncertainty measure. To approximate this alternative measure, we propose G-NLL, which has the advantage of being obtained using only a single output sequence generated by greedy decoding. This makes uncertainty estimation more efficient and straightforward, while preserving theoretical rigor. Empirical results demonstrate that G-NLL achieves state-of-the-art performance across various LLMs and tasks. Our work lays the foundation for efficient and reliable uncertainty estimation in natural language generation, challenging the necessity of more computationally involved methods currently leading the field.

Logs, being run-time information automatically generated by software, record system events and activities with their timestamps. Before obtaining more insights into the run-time status of the software, a fundamental step of log analysis, called log parsing, is employed to extract structured templates and parameters from the semi-structured raw log messages. However, current log parsers are all syntax-based and regard each message as a character string, ignoring the semantic information included in parameters and templates. Thus, we propose the semantic-based parser SemParser to unlock the critical bottleneck of mining semantics from log messages. It contains two steps, an end-to-end semantic miner and a joint parser. Specifically, the first step aims to identify explicit semantics inside a single log, and the second step is responsible for jointly inferring implicit semantics and computing structural outputs based on the contextual knowledge base. To analyze the effectiveness of our semantic parser, we first demonstrate that it can derive rich semantics from log messages collected from six widely-applied systems with an average F1 score of 0.985. Then, we conduct two representative downstream tasks, showing that current downstream models improve their performance with appropriately extracted semantics by 1.2%-11.7% and 8.65% on two anomaly detection datasets and a failure identification dataset, respectively. We believe these findings provide insights into semantically understanding log messages for the log analysis community.

The 100 MW cryogenic liquid oxygen/hydrogen multi-injector combustor BKD operated by the DLR Institute of Space Propulsion is a research platform that allows the study of thermoacoustic instabilities under realistic conditions, representative of small upper stage rocket engines. We use data from BKD experimental campaigns in which the static chamber pressure and fuel-oxidizer ratio are varied such that the first tangential mode of the combustor is excited under some conditions. We train an autoregressive Bayesian neural network model to forecast the amplitude of the dynamic pressure time series, inputting multiple sensor measurements (injector pressure/ temperature measurements, static chamber pressure, high-frequency dynamic pressure measurements, high-frequency OH* chemiluminescence measurements) and future flow rate control signals. The Bayesian nature of our algorithms allows us to work with a dataset whose size is restricted by the expense of each experimental run, without making overconfident extrapolations. We find that the networks are able to accurately forecast the evolution of the pressure amplitude and anticipate instability events on unseen experimental runs 500 milliseconds in advance. We compare the predictive accuracy of multiple models using different combinations of sensor inputs. We find that the high-frequency dynamic pressure signal is particularly informative. We also use the technique of integrated gradients to interpret the influence of different sensor inputs on the model prediction. The negative log-likelihood of data points in the test dataset indicates that predictive uncertainties are well-characterized by our Bayesian model and simulating a sensor failure event results as expected in a dramatic increase in the epistemic component of the uncertainty.

Diffusion models have become a core paradigm for multimedia generation, offering powerful concept-driven controllability for personalization, semantic editing, and selective unlearning. However, as semantic control extends beyond natural-language prompts to learned embeddings and intervention pipelines, the safety and governance of these systems become increasingly difficult to evaluate in a unified manner, especially for safety-sensitive, identity-linked, and other privacy-relevant concepts. Existing studies mainly rely on heuristic audits, adversarial probing, or task-specific erasure benchmarks, and therefore provide limited support for systematic comparison across models, conditioning channels, and deployment conditions. We present a concept-level probabilistic audit and reporting framework for diffusion models. We formalize governance-relevant concept behaviors as Bernoulli semantic events induced by stochastic generation, and define a Concept Risk Operator that maps model-channel configurations to structured risk profiles, enabling comparison across prompting interfaces, learned embedding channels, models, and recorded conditions. We apply sample-level post-hoc calibration and configuration-level risk aggregation, and show that probability error can change thresholded actions near policy boundaries. Experiments on SD1.5, SD2.1, and SDXL reveal consistent yet non-uniform operational risk patterns across concept families, channels, recorded conditions, and shifted protocols. In particular, embedding-based access and obfuscated prompts expose risks often understated by standard-prompt evaluation. A pooled multi-protocol calibrator improves held-out probability reliability, but we do not claim transfer from a standard-only calibrator. CLRC provides a common audit schema for probabilistic and decision-aware governance of multimedia generation systems.

Crash datasets that carry an investigator narrative hold information the coded fields omit. Coding those narratives at scale has been blocked by three obstacles. Frontier large language models are costly at that scale, their generated text cannot be verified, and no rule says how much output a human must check. This paper formulates narrative coding as gated, typed decisions answered by Jev, a System One model that returns probabilities over analyst-defined options and generates no text. A screen covered 499,500 Texas narratives and 195,857 were coded with a 27-question schema. Cost is governed by schema size rather than narrative length. The probabilities are audited against coded fields and against 2,416 blinded human judgments drawn under a stated sampling design. Two frontier large language models are benchmarked on the same records. Against human labels the typed model attains an F1 of 0.908. One frontier model gains 0.059 and the other is indistinguishable from it. Calibration varies by model rather than by paradigm, so each model must be audited. Recalibration on the same labels reduces calibration error by a factor of 3.3. Agreement with coded fields understates fidelity to the narrative by a median of 0.26 in kappa. A resolution-floor bound covers any model that reports probabilities on a discrete grid. A review budget over flagged records gives the records a human must read per variable and per year. Adding the calibrated variables to the coded fields raises the injury and fatal crashes attributed to nine factors by 10,747 per year.

Asynchronous reinforcement learning (RL) for large language model (LLM) agents trains one policy on trajectories generated by another: rollouts come from stale checkpoints, and the inference engine's probabilities differ from the trainer's even at identical parameters. Standard remedies either clip importance ratios, which biases the update, or, as in GRPO, sample a group of responses per prompt, which is costly when episodes are long. We propose KL-Regularized Policy Optimization (KLPO), a framework that anchors the KL regularizer at the sampler. The regularized improvement step then has a closed-form Gibbs solution, and KLPO fits its log-ratio optimality condition by least squares on the sampler's own trajectories, so the sampler probability enters through a log-ratio and no importance weights are needed. Profiling out the regression intercept replaces the intractable log-partition function with the signal's sampler mean plus a sampler-to-trainer KL divergence. For token-level policy mirror descent targets, we show that the resulting gradient can be computed from terminal returns without a critic, via sampler-centered scores or a single trajectory residual, even under stochastic tool outputs. We further prove that independent Monte Carlo estimates of the KL term keep these gradients unbiased, derive the exact KL gap of cheaper top-K and binary approximations, and show that SPPO, GPO, REBEL, and BPO arise as special cases of KLPO. The result is a critic-free update that uses one rollout per prompt and requires neither a learned normalizer nor a group of responses.

Software logging is essential for maintaining and debugging complex systems, yet it remains unclear how AI coding agents handle this non-functional requirement. While prior work characterizes human logging practices, the behaviors of AI coding agents and the efficacy of natural language instructions in governing them are unexplored. To address this gap, we conduct an empirical study of 4,550 agentic pull requests across 81 open-source repositories. We compare agent logging patterns against human baselines and analyze the impact of explicit logging instructions. We find that agents change logging less often than humans in 58.4% of repositories, though they exhibit higher log density when they do. Furthermore, explicit logging instructions are rare (4.7%) and ineffective, as agents fail to comply with constructive requests 67% of the time. Finally, we observe that humans perform 72.5% of post-generation log repairs, acting as "silent janitors" who fix logging and observability issues without explicit review feedback. These findings indicate a dual failure in natural language instruction (i.e., scarcity of logging instructions and low agent compliance), suggesting that deterministic guardrails might be necessary to ensure consistent logging practices.

Large language model agents can plan, invoke tools, and modify external states, yet most systems still take an explicit user instruction as a fixed starting point. Proactive service moves the decision upstream: an agent must infer service opportunities from incomplete environmental and user signals, choose among remaining silent, asking, assisting, and acting, and account for interruption, misunderstanding, overreach, and privacy costs. This survey gives an operational definition centered on initiative and formulates the problem as a partially observable sequential decision process constrained by authorization and risk. The formulation represents timing, content, and delivery within one structured action, while making explicit the option value of waiting, the decision value of questions, and feedback-induced state changes. On this basis, we organize existing methods along one decision pipeline (state and need estimation, intervention gating, action construction, and feedback adaptation) and describe prescribed, predictive, model based, and return optimizing mechanisms as nonexclusive policy-construction components. We further normalize decision units and three-axis evidence descriptors across streaming dialogue, screen, video, software-engineering, and human-agent collaboration resources, and formalize metrics for triggering, timing, calibration, user burden, safety, and policy value. The synthesis shows why offline classification performance alone does not predict deployment benefit and why long-term memory is not a defining condition of proactivity. Reliable proactive service instead requires calibrated incremental intervention value, verifiable authorization, recoverable execution, and counterfactual evidence.

Value-model-free RLVR methods such as GRPO assign uniform advantages to all tokens in a rollout, ignoring that tokens contribute unequally. Recent methods use token entropy as an importance proxy but compute it globally across the batch, conflating importance with prompt difficulty and positional trends. We argue that importance should instead be measured relative to the local context of each token. We introduce proximal entropy, a local measure of token importance relative to neighboring tokens, and prove it is invariant to both confounders. Proximal Entropy Policy Optimization (PEPO) uses it to weight per-token advantages and outperforms GRPO and entropy-based baselines on mathematical reasoning across Qwen3-1.7B, Qwen3-4B, and Llama-3.2-3B-Instruct. We also show the formulation generalizes to other algorithms where substituting proximal entropy into existing methods improves, and applying it to single-stream RL succeeds where global entropy fails.

Recent advancements in large language models (LLMs) often rely on generating intermediate reasoning steps to enhance accuracy. However, little work has examined how reasoning utility contributes to the final answer's correctness. Due to the stochastic nature of autoregressive generation, generating more context does not guarantee increased confidence in the answer. If we could predict, during generation, whether a reasoning step will be useful, we could stop early or prune ineffective steps, avoiding distractions in the final decision. We present an oracle study on MATH dataset, using Qwen2.5-32B and GPT-4o to generate reasoning chains, and then employing a separate model (Qwen3-8B) to quantify the utility of these chains for final accuracy. Specifically, we measure the model's uncertainty on the answer span Y at each reasoning step using conditional entropy (expected negative log-likelihood over the vocabulary) with context expanding step by step. Our results show a clear pattern: conditional entropy that decreases over steps is strongly associated with correct answers, whereas flat or increasing entropy often results in wrong answers. We also corroborate that incorrect reasoning paths tend to be longer than correct ones, suggesting that longer reasoning does not necessarily yield better outcomes. These findings serve as a foundation to inspire future work on designing efficient reasoning pipelines that detect and avoid unproductive reasoning early.

Behavior constrained policy optimization has been demonstrated to be a successful paradigm for tackling Offline Reinforcement Learning. By exploiting historical transitions, a policy is trained to maximize a learned value function while constrained by the behavior policy to avoid a significant distributional shift. In this paper, we propose our closed-form policy improvement operators. We make a novel observation that the behavior constraint naturally motivates the use of first-order Taylor approximation, leading to a linear approximation of the policy objective. Additionally, as practical datasets are usually collected by heterogeneous policies, we model the behavior policies as a Gaussian Mixture and overcome the induced optimization difficulties by leveraging the LogSumExp's lower bound and Jensen's Inequality, giving rise to a closed-form policy improvement operator. We instantiate offline RL algorithms with our novel policy improvement operators and empirically demonstrate their effectiveness over state-of-the-art algorithms on the standard D4RL benchmark. Our code is available at https://cfpi-icml23.github.io/.

While Large Language Models have improved rapidly, many fundamental questions remain about how to evaluate the knowledge and reasoning abilities they acquire, and how such evaluations relate to the learning signals used in pre-training. In this paper, we propose ModelLog, a declarative probabilistic framework for pre-training evaluation that makes the semantic structure of model behavior explicit and provides new formal tools for relating evaluation to learning. ModelLog specifies evaluation targets as symbolic constraints over token-level predictions and measures how strongly a model's distribution satisfies those constraints. We explore the framework through a new suite of tasks targeting negation, mutual exclusivity, and consistency, finding systematic failures that are difficult to characterize through token likelihood or answer accuracy alone. We further show that these evaluation scores can also be interpreted as losses, whose gradients reflect logical strength, informativeness, and variable-level sensitivity. This links evaluation and learning through a shared semantics, suggesting evaluation methods that diagnose model behavior while also helping to clarify the semantic structure of learning.

Being probabilistic models, during inference large language models (LLMs) display rare events: behaviour that is far from typical but highly significant. By definition all rare events are hard to see, but the enormous scale of LLM usage means that events completely unobserved during development are likely to become prominent in deployment. Here we present an end-to-end framework for the systematic analysis of rare events in LLMs. We provide a practical implementation spanning theory, efficient generation strategies, probability estimation and error analysis, which we illustrate with concrete examples. We outline extensions and applications to other models and contexts, highlighting the generality of the concepts and techniques presented here.

Outcome-based reinforcement learning provides a stable optimization backbone for language agents, but its sparse trajectory-level rewards provide little guidance on which intermediate decisions should be reinforced or suppressed. On-policy self-distillation offers dense token-level supervision, yet existing skill-conditioned variants often rely on external skill memories or retrieved privileged context, which are costly to maintain and can be mismatched with the state distribution induced by the current policy in multi-turn interaction. We propose OPID (On-Policy Skill Distillation), a framework that extracts skill supervision directly from completed on-policy trajectories. OPID represents trajectory hindsight as hierarchical skills: episode-level skills capture global workflows or failure-avoidance rules, while step-level skills capture local decision knowledge at critical timesteps. A critical-first routing mechanism uses step-level skills when critical decisions are identified and falls back to episode-level skills as default guidance otherwise. The selected skill is injected into the interaction history, allowing the old policy to re-score the same sampled response under both original and skill-augmented contexts. The resulting log-probability shift yields a token-level self-distillation advantage, which is combined with the outcome advantage for policy optimization. OPID thus preserves RL as the primary training objective while introducing dense, distribution-matched hindsight supervision. Experiments on ALFWorld, WebShop and Search-based QA demonstrate that OPID generally improves agent performance, sample efficiency, and robustness over outcome-only RL and existing skill-distillation baselines. Our code is available at https://github.com/jinyangwu/OPID/tree/main.

Policy gradient methods are reinforcement learning algorithms that adapt a parameterized policy by following a performance gradient estimate. Conventional policy gradient methods use Monte-Carlo techniques to estimate the gradient, which tend to have high variance, requiring many samples and resulting in slow convergence. We first propose a Bayesian framework for policy gradient, based on modeling the policy gradient as a Gaussian process. This reduces the number of samples needed to obtain accurate gradient estimates. Moreover, estimates of the natural gradient and a measure of the uncertainty in the gradient estimates, namely, the gradient covariance, are provided at little extra cost. Since the proposed framework considers system trajectories as its basic observable unit, it does not require the dynamics within trajectories to be of any particular form, and can be extended to partially observable problems. On the downside, it cannot exploit the Markov property when the system is Markovian. To address this, we supplement our Bayesian policy gradient framework with a new actor-critic learning model in which a Bayesian class of non-parametric critics, based on Gaussian process temporal difference learning, is used. Such critics model the action-value function as a Gaussian process, allowing Bayes rule to be used to compute the posterior distribution over action-value functions, conditioned on the observed data. Appropriate choices of the policy parameterization and of the prior covariance (kernel) between action-values yield closed-form expressions for the posterior of the gradient of the expected return with respect to the policy parameters. We perform detailed experimental comparisons of the proposed Bayesian policy gradient and actor-critic algorithms with classic Monte-Carlo based policy gradient methods, on a number of reinforcement learning problems.

Logs play a crucial role in system monitoring and debugging by recording valuable system information, including events and states. Although various methods have been proposed to detect anomalies in log sequences, they often overlook the significance of considering relations among system components, such as services and users, which can be identified from log contents. Understanding these relations is vital for detecting anomalies and their underlying causes. To address this issue, we introduce GLAD, a Graph-based Log Anomaly Detection framework designed to detect relational anomalies in system logs. GLAD incorporates log semantics, relational patterns, and sequential patterns into a unified framework for anomaly detection. Specifically, GLAD first introduces a field extraction module that utilizes prompt-based few-shot learning to identify essential fields from log contents. Then GLAD constructs dynamic log graphs for sliding windows by interconnecting extracted fields and log events parsed from the log parser. These graphs represent events and fields as nodes and their relations as edges. Subsequently, GLAD utilizes a temporal-attentive graph edge anomaly detection model for identifying anomalous relations in these dynamic log graphs. This model employs a Graph Neural Network (GNN)-based encoder enhanced with transformers to capture content, structural and temporal features. We evaluate our proposed method on three datasets, and the results demonstrate the effectiveness of GLAD in detecting anomalies indicated by varying relational patterns.

Policy compliance detection is the task of ensuring that a scenario conforms to a policy (e.g. a claim is valid according to government rules or a post in an online platform conforms to community guidelines). This task has been previously instantiated as a form of textual entailment, which results in poor accuracy due to the complexity of the policies. In this paper we propose to address policy compliance detection via decomposing it into question answering, where questions check whether the conditions stated in the policy apply to the scenario, and an expression tree combines the answers to obtain the label. Despite the initial upfront annotation cost, we demonstrate that this approach results in better accuracy, especially in the cross-policy setup where the policies during testing are unseen in training. In addition, it allows us to use existing question answering models pre-trained on existing large datasets. Finally, it explicitly identifies the information missing from a scenario in case policy compliance cannot be determined. We conduct our experiments using a recent dataset consisting of government policies, which we augment with expert annotations and find that the cost of annotating question answering decomposition is largely offset by improved inter-annotator agreement and speed.

Real-world decision-making, from tax compliance assessment to medical diagnosis, requires aggregating multiple noisy and potentially contradictory evidence sources. Existing approaches either lack explicit uncertainty quantification (neural aggregation methods) or rely on manually engineered discrete predicates (probabilistic logic frameworks), limiting scalability to unstructured data. We introduce Latent Posterior Factors (LPF), a framework that transforms Variational Autoencoder (VAE) latent posteriors into soft likelihood factors for Sum-Product Network (SPN) inference, enabling tractable probabilistic reasoning over unstructured evidence while preserving calibrated uncertainty estimates. We instantiate LPF as LPF-SPN (structured factor-based inference) and LPF-Learned (end-to-end learned aggregation), enabling a principled comparison between explicit probabilistic reasoning and learned aggregation under a shared uncertainty representation. Across eight domains (seven synthetic and the FEVER benchmark), LPF-SPN achieves high accuracy (up to 97.8%), low calibration error (ECE 1.4%), and strong probabilistic fit, substantially outperforming evidential deep learning, LLMs and graph-based baselines over 15 random seeds. Contributions: (1) A framework bridging latent uncertainty representations with structured probabilistic reasoning. (2) Dual architectures enabling controlled comparison of reasoning paradigms. (3) Reproducible training methodology with seed selection. (4) Evaluation against EDL, BERT, R-GCN, and large language model baselines. (5) Cross-domain validation. (6) Formal guarantees in a companion paper.

As the IT industry advances, system log data becomes increasingly crucial. Many computer systems rely on log texts for management due to restricted access to source code. The need for log anomaly detection is growing, especially in real-world applications, but identifying anomalies in rapidly accumulating logs remains a challenging task. Traditional deep learning-based anomaly detection models require dataset-specific training, leading to corresponding delays. Notably, most methods only focus on sequence-level log information, which makes the detection of subtle anomalies harder, and often involve inference processes that are difficult to utilize in real-time. We introduce RAPID, a model that capitalizes on the inherent features of log data to enable anomaly detection without training delays, ensuring real-time capability. RAPID treats logs as natural language, extracting representations using pre-trained language models. Given that logs can be categorized based on system context, we implement a retrieval-based technique to contrast test logs with the most similar normal logs. This strategy not only obviates the need for log-specific training but also adeptly incorporates token-level information, ensuring refined and robust detection, particularly for unseen logs. We also propose the core set technique, which can reduce the computational cost needed for comparison. Experimental results show that even without training on log data, RAPID demonstrates competitive performance compared to prior models and achieves the best performance on certain datasets. Through various research questions, we verified its capability for real-time detection without delay.

Training large language models (LLMs) with reinforcement learning (RL) methods such as PPO and GRPO commonly relies on ratio clipping to stabilise updates. While effective at preventing instability, clipping discards information and introduces gradient discontinuities. We propose Probability Smoothing Policy Optimisation (PSPO), which smooths the current policy's probabilities toward the old (behaviour) policy before computing the importance ratio, analogous to label smoothing. Unlike clipping, PSPO preserves gradient signal, while interpolation toward the old policy creates a soft trust region that discourages large, destabilising updates, with formal guarantees. We instantiate PSPO within GRPO (GR-PSPO) and fine-tune Qwen2.5-0.5B and Qwen2.5-1.5B on GSM8K, evaluating on GSM8K test and the cross-dataset generalisation on SVAMP, ASDiv, and MATH-500. Relative to unclipped GRPO (single iteration; no data reuse, ratio always = 1), GR-PSPO achieves similar performance but improves the reasoning leading to clearer and more concise responses which are more logical. Compared to clipped GRPO, GR-PSPO substantially improves performance both the 0.5B and 1.5B models, with a boost of over 20% on GSM8K (39.7% vs. 17.6% for 0.5B, 59.4% vs. 37.8% for 1.5B).

Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) has proven effective for enhancing the reasoning capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs). However, dominant approaches like Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) face critical stability challenges: they suffer from high estimator variance under computational constraints (small group sizes) and vanishing gradient signals in saturated failure regimes where all responses yield identical zero rewards. To address this, we propose Empirical Bayes Policy Optimization (EBPO), a novel framework that regularizes local group-based baselines by borrowing strength from the policy's accumulated global statistics. Instead of estimating baselines in isolation, EBPO employs a shrinkage estimator that dynamically balances local group statistics with a global prior updated via Welford's online algorithm. Theoretically, we demonstrate that EBPO guarantees strictly lower Mean Squared Error (MSE), bounded entropy decay, and non-vanishing penalty signals in failure scenarios compared to GRPO. Empirically, EBPO consistently outperforms GRPO and other established baselines across diverse benchmarks, including AIME and OlympiadBench. Notably, EBPO exhibits superior training stability, achieving high-performance gains even with small group sizes, and benefits significantly from difficulty-stratified curriculum learning.

We consider a number of graph kernels and proximity measures including commute time kernel, regularized Laplacian kernel, heat kernel, exponential diffusion kernel (also called "communicability"), etc., and the corresponding distances as applied to clustering nodes in random graphs and several well-known datasets. The model of generating random graphs involves edge probabilities for the pairs of nodes that belong to the same class or different predefined classes of nodes. It turns out that in most cases, logarithmic measures (i.e., measures resulting after taking logarithm of the proximities) perform better while distinguishing underlying classes than the "plain" measures. A comparison in terms of reject curves of inter-class and intra-class distances confirms this conclusion. A similar conclusion can be made for several well-known datasets. A possible origin of this effect is that most kernels have a multiplicative nature, while the nature of distances used in cluster algorithms is an additive one (cf. the triangle inequality). The logarithmic transformation is a tool to transform the first nature to the second one. Moreover, some distances corresponding to the logarithmic measures possess a meaningful cutpoint additivity property. In our experiments, the leader is usually the logarithmic Communicability measure. However, we indicate some more complicated cases in which other measures, typically, Communicability and plain Walk, can be the winners.

Guard models support the safe deployment of language model agents, but fixed risk taxonomies limit their ability to accommodate requirements that vary across applications and tasks. Under user-defined policies, detecting violations requires interpreting both the applicable rules and the agent's behavior, since identical actions can receive different judgments under different policies. To support learning this capability, we introduce AdaptiveSafety, a dataset of 10,939 training examples and 1,000 test examples covering policies with 1--100 rules. The dataset combines trajectories from multiple sources with policy and behavioral counterfactuals, pairing each example with an explanation and the complete set of violated rules. These counterfactuals expose changes that alter compliance, while structural augmentations provide supervision for consistency under rule reordering and identifier remapping. Building on this supervision, we propose SafePO, a reinforcement learning algorithm for refining violation identification while balancing explanatory reasoning and final verdicts. SafePO uses structured rewards to assess prediction correctness, retains group-relative advantages at the response level, and employs a separately trained value model to modulate token weights within explanation and verdict regions. Separate normalization controls their relative contribution to training despite differences in length. Through supervised initialization followed by SafePO, we develop AdaGuard, a family of 0.6B, 4B, and 8B guard models that assess agent trajectories under policies supplied at inference time. Our 4B model achieves binary accuracies of 89.30\% on AdaptiveSafety and 71.82\% on DynaBench. The project repository is available at https://github.com/Yunhao-Feng/AdaGuard

Model-free reinforcement learning algorithms have seen remarkable progress, but key challenges remain. Trust Region Policy Optimization (TRPO) is known for ensuring monotonic policy improvement through conservative updates within a trust region, backed by strong theoretical guarantees. However, its reliance on complex second-order optimization limits its practical efficiency. Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) addresses this by simplifying TRPO's approach using ratio clipping, improving efficiency but sacrificing some theoretical robustness. This raises a natural question: Can we combine the strengths of both methods? In this paper, we introduce Simple Policy Optimization (SPO), a novel unconstrained first-order algorithm. By slightly modifying the policy loss used in PPO, SPO can achieve the best of both worlds. Our new objective improves upon ratio clipping, offering stronger theoretical properties and better constraining the probability ratio within the trust region. Empirical results demonstrate that SPO outperforms PPO with a simple implementation, particularly for training large, complex network architectures end-to-end.

On-policy distillation (OPD) offers dense token-level supervision as an alternative to the sparse outcome-level advantages of reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR). However, the teacher scores student-generated trajectories that are inherently off-policy for it, so the reliability of its supervision, and hence the source of the student's improvement, remains unclear. We quantitatively analyze teacher supervision during OPD training and find substantial noise whose prevalence increases with teacher scale. Surprisingly, the student policy is insensitive to such noise, converging to comparable performance regardless of whether noisy supervision is retained or removed. Does OPD distill at all? By analyzing what drives its gains, we find that learning concentrates on low log-probability tokens, and using a single fixed negative advantage matches the performance of teacher-provided ones. This suggests that OPD works largely by suppressing low log-probability tokens, which requires no teacher. These findings motivate On-Policy Self-Adaptation (OPSA), a supervision-free method using entropy-adaptive negative advantages. It assigns stronger learning signals to high-entropy positions, suppressing tail tokens, and evenly redistributing probability mass among head tokens. Compared with the base Qwen3-1.7B, OPSA improves Avg@32 by 35.41 points on AIME24, corresponding to a 263\% relative gain, and more than doubles Pass@32 across all three benchmarks. It also outperforms OPD by 16.77 points in Avg@32 on AIME24. Extensive experiments and analyses across model families and tasks further demonstrate its effectiveness and generalizability.

Reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) is one of the key techniques that helps large language models (LLMs) to follow instructions and provide helpful and harmless responses. While direct policy optimization methods exist, state-of-the-art LLMs adopt RL-based methods (usually PPO) in RLHF to train the policy to generate good responses guided by a reward model learned from preference data. The main challenge of these methods is the inaccuracy of the intermediate reward model, especially in code generation tasks that require long and complex reasoning to score a response. We find that the reliability of the reward model varies across responses assigned with different rewards. This motivates us to filter the samples whose rewards may be unreliable to improve signal-to-noise ratio during policy learning, resulting in Policy Filtration for Proximal Policy Optimization (PF-PPO). To choose a proper policy filtration strategy for a given reward model, the coefficient of determination (R^2) between rewards and actual scores on filtered samples serves as a good metrics and helps us find several promising strategies. We provide extensive experiments to validate the effectiveness of PF-PPO in code generation tasks, and find that some variants of PF-PPO are highly effective and achieve new state-of-the-art performance across 7-billion-parameter models on HumanEval, MBPP, and a new and more challenging LeetCode Contest benchmark.

Autonomous improvement loops are hard to trust because the improvement process is usually external scaffolding bolted onto the agent: failures go unlogged, diagnoses cannot be replayed, and promote-or-discard decisions land in a side database rather than the agent's own history. We show that an event-sourced agent runtime removes that friction and turns controlled improvement into a first-class workflow. When the agent's state is a deterministic projection of an append-only event log, failures are recorded, a run replays exactly from its log, candidate patches scope to typed pipeline seams, gates are auditable, and every promotion or discard is itself an event. We demonstrate this with Regimes, a loop on the ActiveGraph runtime that diagnoses failed evaluations, proposes a repair at a pipeline point, and promotes it only after static checks, sandbox execution, in-sample evaluation, and held-out validation. The loop is target-agnostic: the same control flow runs against different tasks through a common interface. On LongMemEval-S the dominant failure is not retrieval but reconciliation: the evidence is already in the assembled context, yet the reader answers incorrectly. Across five seeded held-out splits, Regimes discovers reader-prompt repairs that improve final held-out accuracy by +0.05 to +0.10 in four splits and +0.01 in one over-promotion split; two splits are individually significant (seed 5 unadjusted for its sequential promotion structure), and the pooled count is descriptive only, since the splits share one 500-question pool. The durable contributions are ActiveGraph as an auditable substrate that makes controlled improvement loops tractable, the held-out-gated loop it supports, the failure-regime taxonomy routing each failure to a pipeline location (whose marginal value over an unrouted baseline is the primary open question), and the prompt-as-discovery-probe hypothesis.

Denoising diffusion probabilistic models (DDPM) are a class of generative models which have recently been shown to produce excellent samples. We show that with a few simple modifications, DDPMs can also achieve competitive log-likelihoods while maintaining high sample quality. Additionally, we find that learning variances of the reverse diffusion process allows sampling with an order of magnitude fewer forward passes with a negligible difference in sample quality, which is important for the practical deployment of these models. We additionally use precision and recall to compare how well DDPMs and GANs cover the target distribution. Finally, we show that the sample quality and likelihood of these models scale smoothly with model capacity and training compute, making them easily scalable. We release our code at https://github.com/openai/improved-diffusion

RLVR has substantially improved the reasoning capabilities of LLMs. However, existing methods typically parameterize temporal progression in the Markov Decision Process by token-by-token generation, despite the highly non-uniform information flow along autoregressive trajectories. In this paper, we propose InfoPPO, which reparameterizes temporal progression using information density rather than raw token count. This reparameterization induces a common state-dependent structure for both temporal credit propagation and policy updates. InfoPPO restores the effectiveness of non-trivial discounting in long-horizon reasoning, retaining effective-horizon contraction while avoiding excessive attenuation of terminal supervision over long token sequences. Moreover, the information-time policy-improvement analysis naturally leads to a state-dependent update constraint, which we implement through adaptive clipping. By adapting the clipping threshold at each token position to the information density of its corresponding state, this mechanism enables more targeted policy updates while preserving proximal control. Theoretically, we extend performance-difference and policy-improvement analyses to the information-time MDP, deriving a policy-improvement lower bound when policy changes are regulated by information density. We further connect the general information-time analysis to practical LLM policy optimization by relating state-wise information density to local policy movement, while also providing theoretical grounding for the adaptive update mechanism. Experiments on Qwen3 models demonstrate consistent gains over competitive baselines across five challenging competition-style mathematical reasoning benchmarks. InfoPPO also maintains stable accuracy and response length across non-trivial discount settings under which token-time PPO deteriorates.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in high-stakes domains, where rare but severe failures can result in irreversible harm. However, prevailing evaluation benchmarks often reduce complex social risk to mean-centered scalar scores, thereby obscuring distributional structure, cross-dimensional interactions, and worst-case behavior. This paper introduces Social Harm Analysis via Risk Profiles (SHARP), a framework for multidimensional, distribution-aware evaluation of social harm. SHARP models harm as a multivariate random variable and integrates explicit decomposition into bias, fairness, ethics, and epistemic reliability with a union-of-failures aggregation reparameterized as additive cumulative log-risk. The framework further employs risk-sensitive distributional statistics, with Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR95) as a primary metric, to characterize worst-case model behavior. Application of SHARP to eleven frontier LLMs, evaluated on a fixed corpus of n=901 socially sensitive prompts, reveals that models with similar average risk can exhibit more than twofold differences in tail exposure and volatility. Across models, dimension-wise marginal tail behavior varies systematically across harm dimensions, with bias exhibiting the strongest tail severities, epistemic and fairness risks occupying intermediate regimes, and ethical misalignment consistently lower; together, these patterns reveal heterogeneous, model-dependent failure structures that scalar benchmarks conflate. These findings indicate that responsible evaluation and governance of LLMs require moving beyond scalar averages toward multidimensional, tail-sensitive risk profiling.

This paper studies learning logic rules for reasoning on knowledge graphs. Logic rules provide interpretable explanations when used for prediction as well as being able to generalize to other tasks, and hence are critical to learn. Existing methods either suffer from the problem of searching in a large search space (e.g., neural logic programming) or ineffective optimization due to sparse rewards (e.g., techniques based on reinforcement learning). To address these limitations, this paper proposes a probabilistic model called RNNLogic. RNNLogic treats logic rules as a latent variable, and simultaneously trains a rule generator as well as a reasoning predictor with logic rules. We develop an EM-based algorithm for optimization. In each iteration, the reasoning predictor is first updated to explore some generated logic rules for reasoning. Then in the E-step, we select a set of high-quality rules from all generated rules with both the rule generator and reasoning predictor via posterior inference; and in the M-step, the rule generator is updated with the rules selected in the E-step. Experiments on four datasets prove the effectiveness of RNNLogic.

In many real-world settings, agents must learn from an offline dataset gathered by some prior behavior policy. Such a setting naturally leads to distribution shift between the behavior policy and the target policy being trained - requiring policy conservatism to avoid instability and overestimation bias. Autoregressive world models offer a different solution to this by generating synthetic, on-policy experience. However, in practice, model rollouts must be severely truncated to avoid compounding error. As an alternative, we propose policy-guided diffusion. Our method uses diffusion models to generate entire trajectories under the behavior distribution, applying guidance from the target policy to move synthetic experience further on-policy. We show that policy-guided diffusion models a regularized form of the target distribution that balances action likelihood under both the target and behavior policies, leading to plausible trajectories with high target policy probability, while retaining a lower dynamics error than an offline world model baseline. Using synthetic experience from policy-guided diffusion as a drop-in substitute for real data, we demonstrate significant improvements in performance across a range of standard offline reinforcement learning algorithms and environments. Our approach provides an effective alternative to autoregressive offline world models, opening the door to the controllable generation of synthetic training data.

Detecting the anomalies of web applications, important infrastructures for running modern companies and governments, is crucial for providing reliable web services. Many modern web applications operate on web APIs (e.g., RESTful, SOAP, and WebSockets), their exposure invites intended attacks or unintended illegal visits, causing abnormal system behaviors. However, such anomalies can share very similar logs with normal logs, missing crucial information (which could be in database) for log discrimination. Further, log instances can be also noisy, which can further mislead the state-of-the-art log learning solutions to learn spurious correlation, resulting superficial models and rules for anomaly detection. In this work, we propose MINES which infers explainable API invariants for anomaly detection from the schema level instead of detailed raw log instances, which can (1) significantly discriminate noise in logs to identify precise normalities and (2) detect abnormal behaviors beyond the instrumented logs. Technically, MINES (1) converts API signatures into table schema to enhance the original database shema; and (2) infers the potential database constraints on the enhanced database schema to capture the potential relationships between APIs and database tables. MINES uses LLM for extracting potential relationship based on two given table structures; and use normal log instances to reject and accept LLM-generated invariants. Finally, MINES translates the inferred constraints into invariants to generate Python code for verifying the runtime logs. We extensively evaluate MINES on web-tamper attacks on the benchmarks of TrainTicket, NiceFish, Gitea, Mastodon, and NextCloud against baselines such as LogRobust, LogFormer, and WebNorm. The results show that MINES achieves high recall for the anomalies while introducing almost zero false positives, indicating a new state-of-the-art.

EHR audit logs are a highly granular stream of events that capture clinician activities, and is a significant area of interest for research in characterizing clinician workflow on the electronic health record (EHR). Existing techniques to measure the complexity of workflow through EHR audit logs (audit logs) involve time- or frequency-based cross-sectional aggregations that are unable to capture the full complexity of a EHR session. We briefly evaluate the usage of transformer-based tabular language model (tabular LM) in measuring the entropy or disorderedness of action sequences within workflow and release the evaluated models publicly.

Decision APIs that return a probability for each option are routinely used as if those probabilities were properties of the options themselves. That reading is valid only if the model satisfies independence of irrelevant alternatives (IIA): adding an option that is neither the right answer nor its strongest rival should leave the odds between those two unchanged. We test this in a pre-registered study of jev-1.13.0, a hosted decision model, using 299,463 calls on intent classification (BANKING77, CLINC150) and topic classification (AG News). Every added option moves the log-odds between the gold label and the strongest wrong label: the root-mean-square systematic shift is 0.20-0.52 nats, 1.2 to 3 times the run-to-run variation, even when the added option takes at most 0.1% of the probability mass. The shifts are directional. An option similar to the wrong answer draws probability from it (+0.10 nats toward the gold label). A paraphrase of the wrong answer produces an intermediate pattern: the gold label's probability is almost conserved, but the paraphrase receives only about a third of the wrong answer's share rather than the half that strict substitution implies. The distortion grows steadily with the logarithm of the number of options, reaching about 1 nat at 255 options, and off-domain padding pushes the odds against the gold label. In contrast, questions packed into one call do not interact (bias < 0.001). Scoring each option with an independent yes/no question removes the option-set dependence but picks the right answer 8.7 points less often. Jev sits between two local baselines, an option-independent scorer and a prompt readout. Its probabilities are best read as relative to the option list they were computed over.