Daily Papers

Open quantum systems lose energy and phase coherence through different dissipative processes, but these processes can produce overlapping dynamical signatures. The Liouvillian spectrum summarizes how such a system relaxes, yet it is not obvious how much of that spectrum is needed to distinguish the underlying dissipation rates. We study this question for amplitude damping and dephasing in a six-qubit Lindblad model whose spectrum can be derived analytically. We retain only the slowest non-steady spectral modes and ask how many are required before each dissipative rate becomes recoverable. We show that population modes contain no dephasing information, which creates a lower bound of D = 2^n retained modes for uniform dephasing identifiability in the relevant rate regime. The measured recovery threshold reaches this bound at n = 4,5,6, while n = 3 remains above it. At n = 6, least squares achieves a mean joint absolute error of order 10^-9, compared with 4.355 x 10^-4 for four tabular learning methods. Robustness tests show that this advantage weakens when the spectra are perturbed and when a transverse field breaks the commuting structure. These results show that the amount and structure of retained spectral information can determine whether dissipative parameters are recoverable, independently of the estimator used. The present conclusions apply to noise-free simulator spectra rather than measurement-derived spectra.

We present a Spatially Embedded Evolutionary Algorithm where robot individuals exist in a physically simulated 2D environment, must navigate to encounter potential mates, and compete for survival under various spatially-aware selection pressures. Using HyperNEAT evolved neural controllers for ARIEL gecko-inspired quadrupeds in MuJoCo, we investigate how spatial structure fundamentally alters evolutionary dynamics. Our experiments show a modest 4.9% difference in peak fitness between proximity-based and random pairing possibly within stochastic variation while combining spatial parent selection with stochastic death selection produces unstable population dynamics. We discover a continuous phase transition in energy-based selection experiments, with critical zone count separating extinction-dominated and explosion-dominated regimes. Our density-dependent death selection mechanism achieves 97% completion rates but causes fitness decline, revealing a fundamental dilemma where decoupled mechanisms produce bistable dynamics, positively coupled mechanisms create counter-selection pressures, and only deterministic fitness-based selection maintains stability. These findings provide important constraints for future spatial EA design.

The Population III.1 theory for supermassive black hole (SMBH) formation predicts a very early (zsim20-25), transient phase, ``The Flash'', of cosmic reionization powered by supermassive stars that are SMBH progenitors. The universe then quickly recombined to become mostly neutral, with this state persisting until galaxies begin to reionize intergalactic gas again at zsim 10. The overall Thomson scattering optical depth, tau, from The Flash has been shown to be tau_{rm PopIII.1}sim0.03, leading to a total tausim0.08-0.09. Such a value, while significantly larger than that previously inferred from {\it Planck} observations of the low-l EE polarization power spectrum of the CMB, can help relieve several ``tensions'' faced by the standard LambdaCDM cosmological model, especially the preference for negative neutrino masses and dynamic dark energy. Here we compute EE power spectra of example models of The Flash. We find that, because of its very high redshift, the contribution to llesssim8 modes is dramatically reduced compared to usual low-z reionization models for the same value of tau, while the power at lgtrsim8 is boosted. Thus the Pop III.1 reionization scenario provides a natural way to increase tau, while remaining closer to the latest CMB low-l polarization observations.

A continuous-time projection quantum Monte Carlo algorithm is employed to simulate the ground state of a short-range quantum spin-glass model, namely, the two-dimensional Edwards-Anderson Hamiltonian with transverse field, featuring Gaussian nearest-neighbor couplings. We numerically demonstrate that guiding wave functions based on self-learned neural networks suppress the population control bias below modest statistical uncertainties, at least up to a hundred spins. By projecting a two-fold replicated Hamiltonian, the spin overlap is determined. A finite-size scaling analysis is performed to estimate the critical transverse field where the spin-glass transition occurs, as well as the critical exponents of the correlation length and the spin-glass susceptibility. For the latter two, good agreement is found with recent estimates from the literature for different random couplings. We also address the spin-overlap distribution within the spin-glass phase, finding that, for the workable system sizes, it displays a non-trivial double-peak shape with large weight at zero overlap.

Commonsense intelligence in machines is often assessed by static benchmarks that compare a model's output against human-prescribed correct labels. An important, albeit implicit, assumption of these labels is that they accurately capture what any human would think, effectively treating human common sense as homogeneous. However, recent empirical work has shown that humans vary enormously in what they consider commonsensical; thus what appears self-evident to one benchmark designer may not be so to another. Here, we propose a novel method for evaluating common sense in artificial intelligence (AI), specifically in large language models (LLMs), that incorporates empirically observed heterogeneity among humans by measuring the correspondence between a model's judgment and that of a human population. We first find that, when treated as independent survey respondents, most LLMs remain below the human median in their individual commonsense competence. Second, when used as simulators of a hypothetical population, LLMs correlate with real humans only modestly in the extent to which they agree on the same set of statements. In both cases, smaller, open-weight models are surprisingly more competitive than larger, proprietary frontier models. Our evaluation framework, which ties commonsense intelligence to its cultural basis, contributes to the growing call for adapting AI models to human collectivities that possess different, often incompatible, social stocks of knowledge.

Many of society's most pressing challenges, from pandemic response to supply chain disruptions to climate adaptation, emerge from the collective behavior of millions of autonomous agents making decisions over time. Large Population Models (LPMs) offer an approach to understand these complex systems by simulating entire populations with realistic behaviors and interactions at unprecedented scale. LPMs extend traditional modeling approaches through three key innovations: computational methods that efficiently simulate millions of agents simultaneously, mathematical frameworks that learn from diverse real-world data streams, and privacy-preserving communication protocols that bridge virtual and physical environments. This allows researchers to observe how agent behavior aggregates into system-level outcomes and test interventions before real-world implementation. While current AI advances primarily focus on creating "digital humans" with sophisticated individual capabilities, LPMs develop "digital societies" where the richness of interactions reveals emergent phenomena. By bridging individual agent behavior and population-scale dynamics, LPMs offer a complementary path in AI research illuminating collective intelligence and providing testing grounds for policies and social innovations before real-world deployment. We discuss the technical foundations and some open problems here. LPMs are implemented by the AgentTorch framework (github.com/AgentTorch/AgentTorch)

We introduce a new predator-prey model by replacing the growth and predation constant by a square matrix, and the population density as a population vector. The classical Lotka-Volterra model describes a population that either modulates or converges. Stability analysis of such models have been extensively studied by the works of Merdan (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2007.06.062). The new model adds complexity by introducing an age group structure where the population of each age group evolves as prescribed by the Leslie matrix. The added complexity changes the behavior of the model such that the population either displays roughly an exponential growth or decay. We first provide an exact equation that describes a time evolution and use analytic techniques to obtain an approximate growth factor. We also discuss the variants of the Leslie model, i.e., the complex value predator-prey model and the competitive model. We then prove the Last Species Standing theorem that determines the dominant population in the large time limit. The recursive structure of the model denies the application of simple regression. We discuss a machine learning scheme that allows an admissible fit for the population evolution of Paramecium Aurelia and Paramecium Caudatum. Another potential avenue to simplify the computation is to use the machinery of quantum operators. We demonstrate the potential of this approach by computing the Hamiltonian of a simple Leslie system.

We present the LLM Economist, a novel framework that uses agent-based modeling to design and assess economic policies in strategic environments with hierarchical decision-making. At the lower level, bounded rational worker agents -- instantiated as persona-conditioned prompts sampled from U.S. Census-calibrated income and demographic statistics -- choose labor supply to maximize text-based utility functions learned in-context. At the upper level, a planner agent employs in-context reinforcement learning to propose piecewise-linear marginal tax schedules anchored to the current U.S. federal brackets. This construction endows economic simulacra with three capabilities requisite for credible fiscal experimentation: (i) optimization of heterogeneous utilities, (ii) principled generation of large, demographically realistic agent populations, and (iii) mechanism design -- the ultimate nudging problem -- expressed entirely in natural language. Experiments with populations of up to one hundred interacting agents show that the planner converges near Stackelberg equilibria that improve aggregate social welfare relative to Saez solutions, while a periodic, persona-level voting procedure furthers these gains under decentralized governance. These results demonstrate that large language model-based agents can jointly model, simulate, and govern complex economic systems, providing a tractable test bed for policy evaluation at the societal scale to help build better civilizations.

Commonsense Knowledge Bases (CSKB) Population, which aims at automatically expanding knowledge in CSKBs with external resources, is an important yet hard task in NLP. Fang et al. (2021a) proposed a CSKB Population (CKBP) framework with an evaluation set CKBP v1. However, CKBP v1 relies on crowdsourced annotations that suffer from a considerable number of mislabeled answers, and the evaluationset lacks alignment with the external knowledge source due to random sampling. In this paper, we introduce CKBP v2, a new high-quality CSKB Population evaluation set that addresses the two aforementioned issues by employing domain experts as annotators and incorporating diversified adversarial samples to make the evaluation data more representative. We show that CKBP v2 serves as a challenging and representative evaluation dataset for the CSKB Population task, while its development set aids in selecting a population model that leads to improved knowledge acquisition for downstream commonsense reasoning. A better population model can also help acquire more informative commonsense knowledge as additional supervision signals for both generative commonsense inference and zero-shot commonsense question answering. Specifically, the question-answering model based on DeBERTa-v3-large (He et al., 2023b) even outperforms powerful large language models in a zero-shot setting, including ChatGPT and GPT-3.5.

Exact firing rate models, also known as next-generation neural mass models (NG-NMMs), provide a rigorous description of the dynamics of neural populations. While in its simplest form a single population only displays fixed-point activity, multi-population models may display a range of different behaviors. In this work, we study the dynamics of all-excitatory or all-inhibitory NG-NMMs coupled through sparse random networks with row-normalized network topology. Linear stability analysis of the homogeneous states of the system, representing asynchronous neural activity, provides a dispersion relation linking the emergence of spatiotemporal dynamics to the spectra of the connectivity matrix. Using bounds from random matrix theory, we identify the parameter regions where instabilities occur. In undirected networks, only inhibitory systems produce heterogeneous stationary patterns, corresponding to a winner-takes-all mechanism. In directed networks, exotic rhythmic states with high frequencies emerge in both, excitatory and inhibitory systems. Numerical simulations reveal that these hectic oscillatory states correspond to high-dimensional chaos with extensive properties.

Most Galactic Globular Clusters (GCs) harbour multiple populations of stars (MPs), composed of at least two generations: the first characterized by a "standard" α-enhanced metal mixture, as observed in field halo stars of the Milky Way, and the second displaying anti-correlated CN--ONa chemical abundance pattern in combination with an enhanced helium fraction. Adequate collections of stellar spectra are needed to characterize the effect of such stellar abundance changes on the integrated light of GCs. We present a grid of synthetic stellar spectra covering the atmospheric parameters relevant to old stellar populations at four subsolar metallicities and two abundance patterns, representative of first- and second-generations of stars in GCs. Integrated spectra of populations were computed using our stellar grid and empirical stellar populations, namely, colour-magnitude diagrams from literature for Galactic GCs. The spectra range from 290 to 1000nm, where we measured the effect on several spectrophotometric indices due to the surface abundance variations attributed to MPs. We find non-negligible effects of the MPs on spectroscopic indices sensitive to C, N, Ca, or Na, and on Balmer indices; we also describe how MPs modify specific regions in the near-UV and near-IR that can be measured with narrow or medium photometric passbands. The effects vary with metallicity. A number of these changes remain detectable even when accounting for the stochastic fluctuations due to the finite nature of the stellar population cluster.

We present very deep (~11h) JWST/MIRI low-resolution spectroscopy of the rest-frame optical emission of U37126, a UV-bright (M_UV ~ -20), mildly lensed (μsimeq 2.2) galaxy at z=10.255. The continuum emission is well detected in both NIRSpec and MIRI spectra, yet no nebular recombination or metal emission lines are observed (EW(Hbeta+[OIII])<300A and EW(Halpha)<400A, at 3sigma). Combined with the exceptionally blue UV continuum slope, beta_UV ~ -2.9, and weak/flat Balmer break, these constraints indicate a stellar population dominated by very young and massive stars with a strongly suppressed nebular contribution. Comparisons with synthetic stellar population models indicate that U37126 requires both a very high ionizing photon production efficiency, log(Xi_ion / Hz erg^-1) ~ 25.75, and a nearly unit LyC escape fraction, of fesc>86% (3sigma) based on Halpha flux limit and fesc=0.94+/-0.06 derived independently from SED fitting. The best-fit SED yields a (de-lensed) stellar mass of Mstar ~ 10^7.8 Msun and a star-formation rate of SFR~10Msun/yr (sSFR~160 Gyr^-1), that along with its very compact size, reff~61pc, yields very high stellar mass and star-formation-rate surface densities, Sigma_M ~ 3x10^3 Msun/pc^2 and Sigma_SFR ~ 400 Msun/yr/kpc^2. Together with the lack of detectable nebular emission, these properties suggest that U37126 is undergoing an ``ISM-naked'' starburst phase, possibly driven by an extremely efficient gas-to-star conversion followed by strong feedback that has cleared the remaining gas from its stellar core, allowing most LyC photons to escape. Finally, we show that even a small fraction of galaxies like U37126 (~ 3%-6%), with extreme LyC production and escape, could contribute disproportionately (~ 50%-100%) to the ionizing photon budget during cosmic reionization.

Galaxy clusters selected based on overdensities of galaxies in photometric surveys provide the largest cluster samples. Yet modeling the selection function of such samples is complicated by non-cluster members projected along the line of sight (projection effects) and the potential detection of unvirialized objects (contamination). We empirically constrain the magnitude of these effects by cross-matching galaxy clusters selected in the Dark Energy survey data with the \rdmpr, algorithm with significant detections in three South Pole Telescope surveys (SZ, pol-ECS, pol-500d). For matched clusters, we augment the \rdmpr,catalog by the SPT detection significance. For unmatched objects we use the SPT detection threshold as an upper limit on the SZe signature. Using a Bayesian population model applied to the collected multi-wavelength data, we explore various physically motivated models to describe the relationship between observed richness and halo mass. Our analysis reveals the limitations of a simple lognormal scatter model in describing the data. We rule out significant contamination by unvirialized objects at the high-richness end of the sample. While dedicated simulations offer a well-fitting calibration of projection effects, our findings suggest the presence of redshift-dependent trends that these simulations may not have captured. Our findings highlight that modeling the selection function of optically detected clusters remains a complicated challenge, requiring a combination of simulation and data-driven approaches.

In egocentric action recognition a single population model is typically trained and subsequently embodied on a head-mounted device, such as an augmented reality headset. While this model remains static for new users and environments, we introduce an adaptive paradigm of two phases, where after pretraining a population model, the model adapts on-device and online to the user's experience. This setting is highly challenging due to the change from population to user domain and the distribution shifts in the user's data stream. Coping with the latter in-stream distribution shifts is the focus of continual learning, where progress has been rooted in controlled benchmarks but challenges faced in real-world applications often remain unaddressed. We introduce EgoAdapt, a benchmark for real-world egocentric action recognition that facilitates our two-phased adaptive paradigm, and real-world challenges naturally occur in the egocentric video streams from Ego4d, such as long-tailed action distributions and large-scale classification over 2740 actions. We introduce an evaluation framework that directly exploits the user's data stream with new metrics to measure the adaptation gain over the population model, online generalization, and hindsight performance. In contrast to single-stream evaluation in existing works, our framework proposes a meta-evaluation that aggregates the results from 50 independent user streams. We provide an extensive empirical study for finetuning and experience replay.

Pulsar wind nebulae (PWNe), especially the young ones, are among the most energetic astrophysical sources in the Galaxy. It is usually believed that the spin-down energy injected from the pulsars is converted into magnetic field and relativistic electrons, but the possible presence of proton acceleration inside PWNe cannot be ruled out. Previous works have estimated the neutrino emission from PWNe using various source catalogs measured in gamma-rays. However, such results rely on the sensitivity of TeV gamma-ray observations and may omit the contribution by unresolved sources. Here we estimate the potential neutrino emission from a synthetic population of PWNe in the Galaxy with a focus on the ones that are still in the free expansion phase. In the calculation, we model the temporal evolution of the free-expanding PWNe and consider the transport of protons inside the PWNe. The Crab nebula is treated as a standard template for young PWNe to evaluate some model parameters, such as the energy conversion fraction of relativistic protons and the target gas density for the hadronic process, which are relevant to neutrino production. In the optimistic case, the neutrino flux from the simulated young PWNe may constitute to 5% of the measured flux by IceCube around 100 TeV. At higher energy around 1 PeV, the neutrino emission from the population highly depends on the injection spectral shape, and also on the emission of the nearby prominent sources.

Parameter-efficient fine-tuning (PEFT) for personalizing automatic speech recognition (ASR) has recently shown promise for adapting general population models to atypical speech. However, these approaches assume a priori knowledge of the atypical speech disorder being adapted for -- the diagnosis of which requires expert knowledge that is not always available. Even given this knowledge, data scarcity and high inter/intra-speaker variability further limit the effectiveness of traditional fine-tuning. To circumvent these challenges, we first identify the minimal set of model parameters required for ASR adaptation. Our analysis of each individual parameter's effect on adaptation performance allows us to reduce Word Error Rate (WER) by half while adapting 0.03% of all weights. Alleviating the need for cohort-specific models, we next propose the novel use of a meta-learned hypernetwork to generate highly individualized, utterance-level adaptations on-the-fly for a diverse set of atypical speech characteristics. Evaluating adaptation at the global, cohort and individual-level, we show that hypernetworks generalize better to out-of-distribution speakers, while maintaining an overall relative WER reduction of 75.2% using 0.1% of the full parameter budget.

We study the prospect of using TianQin to detect stellar-mass binary black holes (SBBHs). We estimate the expected detection number as well as the precision of parameter estimation on SBBH inspirals, using five different population models. We note TianQin can possibly detect a few SBBH inspirals with signal to noise ratios greater than 12; lowering the threshold and combining multiple detectors can both boost the detection number. The source parameters can be recovered with good precision for most events above the detection threshold. For example, the precision of the merger time most likely occurs near 1s, making it possible to guide the detection of the ground-based detectors, the precision of the eccentricity e_0 most likely occurs near 10^{-4}, making it possible to distinguish the formation channels, and the precision of the mass parameter is better than 10^{-6} in general and most likely occurs near 10^{-7}. We note, in particular, that for a typical merger event, the error volume is likely to be small enough to contain only the host galaxy, which could greatly help in the study of gravitational wave cosmology and relevant studies through the multimessenger observation.

Neural networks dominate the modern machine learning landscape, but their training and success still suffer from sensitivity to empirical choices of hyperparameters such as model architecture, loss function, and optimisation algorithm. In this work we present Population Based Training (PBT), a simple asynchronous optimisation algorithm which effectively utilises a fixed computational budget to jointly optimise a population of models and their hyperparameters to maximise performance. Importantly, PBT discovers a schedule of hyperparameter settings rather than following the generally sub-optimal strategy of trying to find a single fixed set to use for the whole course of training. With just a small modification to a typical distributed hyperparameter training framework, our method allows robust and reliable training of models. We demonstrate the effectiveness of PBT on deep reinforcement learning problems, showing faster wall-clock convergence and higher final performance of agents by optimising over a suite of hyperparameters. In addition, we show the same method can be applied to supervised learning for machine translation, where PBT is used to maximise the BLEU score directly, and also to training of Generative Adversarial Networks to maximise the Inception score of generated images. In all cases PBT results in the automatic discovery of hyperparameter schedules and model selection which results in stable training and better final performance.

Foundation-model research increasingly needs data about people: user state, personal histories, relationships, contact-like fields, documents, and longitudinal updates. Real user data is difficult to share, perturb, audit, or redistribute responsibly, while independently generated fake fields rarely preserve the cross-field and temporal consistency needed for controlled evaluation. We present PROFILEFOUNDRY, a deterministic generator and fixed reference release of 100,000 adult synthetic Person Objects across eight locales. Each object combines a typed current snapshot, household, family, and employer links, snapshot-aligned events, normalized relational views, and generation provenance. The release contains 709,228 events, 40,338 households, 52,491 employers, and 518,564 directed relationship edges. We report evidence in separate categories: selected population-marginal comparisons, per-object invariant checks, release-wide referential and temporal closure, and coincidence/provenance screens. PROFILEFOUNDRY is not a population-fidelity model, a rendered-text corpus, or a formal privacy mechanism. Instead, it is a responsible synthetic source layer for constructing downstream foundation-model evaluations involving memory, privacy, document understanding, record linkage, and agent state while keeping the synthetic person behind each artifact inspectable

Tacrolimus is one of the cornerstone immunosuppressive drugs in most transplantation centers worldwide following solid organ transplantation. Therapeutic drug monitoring of tacrolimus is necessary in order to avoid rejection of the transplanted organ or severe side effects. However, finding the right dose for a given patient is challenging, even for experienced clinicians. Consequently, a tool that can accurately estimate the drug exposure for individual dose adaptions would be of high clinical value. In this work, we propose a new technique using machine learning to estimate the tacrolimus exposure in kidney transplant recipients. Our models achieve predictive errors that are at the same level as an established population pharmacokinetic model, but are faster to develop and require less knowledge about the pharmacokinetic properties of the drug.

The star formation rate is a crucial astrophysical tracer for understanding the formation and evolution of galaxies, determining the interaction between interstellar medium properties and star formation, thereby inferring the evolutionary laws of cosmic star formation history and cosmic energy density. The mainstream approach to studying the stellar property in galaxies relies on pure stellar population synthesis models. However, these methods fail to account for the contamination of SFR caused by nebular gas radiation. Recent studies have indicated that neglecting nebular radiation contamination appears non-negligible in galaxies with intense star-forming activities and at relatively high redshifts, potentially leading to overestimating stellar masses. However, there is currently limited targeted research, particularly regarding galaxies at redshifts (z < 0.4). In this work, 6,511 star-formation galaxies are selected from the SDSS-DR18, and FADO fits their spectra. This tool can exclude nebular radiation contributions in the spectral fitting. A tentative work is carried out to explore the SFR of these galaxies. The results indicate that the median \( H_{\alpha} \) flux obtained from FADO fitting differs from that obtained using the pure stellar population synthesis model {\it qsofitmore} by approximately 0.034 dex. Preliminary evidence suggests that the average nebula ratio increases with redshift. Additionally, we investigated the impact of stellar mass on the nebula ratio at low to moderate redshifts. By comparing two spectral fitting software packages, we found that although the contribution of nebular emission is minimal, it generally shows an increasing trend with redshift. We anticipate that by combining optical and near-infrared spectral data, the influence of nebulae may become more prominent in star-forming galaxies at higher redshifts (e.g., up to z sim 2).

Mean-field games have been used as a theoretical tool to obtain an approximate Nash equilibrium for symmetric and anonymous N-player games. However, limiting applicability, existing theoretical results assume variations of a "population generative model", which allows arbitrary modifications of the population distribution by the learning algorithm. Moreover, learning algorithms typically work on abstract simulators with population instead of the N-player game. Instead, we show that N agents running policy mirror ascent converge to the Nash equilibrium of the regularized game within mathcal{O}(varepsilon^{-2}) samples from a single sample trajectory without a population generative model, up to a standard O(1{N}) error due to the mean field. Taking a divergent approach from the literature, instead of working with the best-response map we first show that a policy mirror ascent map can be used to construct a contractive operator having the Nash equilibrium as its fixed point. We analyze single-path TD learning for N-agent games, proving sample complexity guarantees by only using a sample path from the N-agent simulator without a population generative model. Furthermore, we demonstrate that our methodology allows for independent learning by N agents with finite sample guarantees.

How different populations visually explore artworks bears on cognitive science and on accessibility design, yet most eye-tracking work in autism has used social scenes rather than art, and has analysed where the eyes land while ignoring when and in what order. We present a comparative free-viewing study across three groups, autistic adults (ASD), trained artists, and neurotypical observers, who each viewed 30 paintings for 15s. We introduce a directed, metric-grounded framework that compares groups along two complementary axes: a spatial axis, in which one group's fixation-density map predicts another's fixations under six saliency metrics (AUC-Judd, NSS, CC, SIM, KL, Information Gain); and a temporal axis, in which individual scanpaths are compared with MultiMatch, ScanMatch, a foveal-disc IoU score (FDISS), and dynamic time warping (DTW). Fixations are extracted uniformly for all groups with a dispersion-threshold algorithm. Three results converge. (i)Artists and neurotypicals are almost indistinguishable in both space (density-map correlation CC=0.96) and time (they form the most alignable scanpath pair), whereas ASD gaze diverges from both. (ii)ASD attention is dissociated: it matches artists' wide spatial exploration (dispersion, explored area) but carries a distinct temporal signature, shorter fixations, less dwell, and the most idiosyncratic (least self-consistent) scanpaths of any group. (iii)ASD gaze is not selectively artist-like on any metric; if anything it is marginally closer to neurotypical. Together these findings indicate that autistic viewing of art is a distinct, group-specific attentional profile in both space and time, and they motivate population-conditioned models of aesthetic attention. We release all analysis code and per-stimulus results.

We study the evolution of quiescent galaxies at 0.5<z<2.5 as a function of stellar mass, using very deep NIR imaging data taken with the Multi-Object Infrared Camera and Spectrograph on the Subaru Telescope in the GOODS-North region. The deep NIR data allow us to construct a stellar mass-limited sample of quiescent galaxies down to ~10^{10} Msun even at z~2 for the first time. We selected quiescent galaxies with age/tau>6 by performing SED fitting of the multi broad-band photometry from the U to Spitzer 5.8um bands with the population synthesis model of Bruzual & Charlot (2003) where exponentially decaying star formation histories are assumed. The number density of quiescent galaxies increases by a factor of ~3 from 1.0<z<1.5 to 0.5<z<1.0, and by a factor of ~10 from 1.5<z<2.5 to 0.5<z<1.0, while that of star-forming galaxies with age/tau<4 increases only by factors of ~2 and ~3 in the same redshift ranges. At 0.5<z<2.5, the low-mass slope of the stellar mass function of quiescent galaxies is alpha ~ 0 -- 0.6, which is significantly flatter than those of star-forming galaxies (alpha ~ -1.3 -- -1.5). As a result, the fraction of quiescent galaxies in the overall galaxy population increases with stellar mass in the redshift range. The fraction of quiescent galaxies at 10^{11}-10^{11.5} Msun increases from ~20-30% at z~2 to ~40-60% at z~0.75, while that at 10^{10}-10^{10.5} Msun increases from <~ 5% to ~15% in the same redshift range. These results could suggest that the quenching of star formation had been more effective in more massive galaxies at 1<~z<~2. Such a mass-dependent quenching could explain the rapid increase of the number density of ~M* galaxies relative to lower-mass galaxies at z >~ 1-1.5.

Survey data are self-reported data collected directly from respondents by a questionnaire or an interview and are commonly used in epidemiology. Such data are traditionally collected via a single mode (e.g. face-to-face interview alone), but use of mixed-mode designs (e.g. offering face-to-face interview or online survey) has become more common. This introduces two key challenges. First, individuals may respond differently to the same question depending on the mode; these differences due to measurement are known as 'mode effects'. Second, different individuals may participate via different modes; these differences in sample composition between modes are known as 'mode selection'. Where recognised, mode effects are often handled by straightforward approaches such as conditioning on survey mode. However, while reducing mode effects, this and other equivalent approaches may introduce collider bias in the presence of mode selection. The existence of mode effects and the consequences of na\"ive conditioning may be underappreciated in epidemiology. This paper offers a simple introduction to these challenges using directed acyclic graphs by exploring a range of possible data structures. We discuss the potential implications of using conditioning- or imputation-based approaches and outline the advantages of quantitative bias analyses for dealing with mode effects.

Modelling individual decision-making during infectious disease outbreaks is crucial for understanding behavioural dynamics and informing effective public health interventions. Prior work has shown that large language models can simulate realistic human behaviour by generating agent decisions based on demographic prompts and situational context. We build on this foundation with a spatially grounded, agent-based simulation framework that integrates LLM-generated decisions about self-reported influenza-like illness into a census-based synthetic population of agents. Location is treated as a central feature: agents are assigned to spatial units within cities, capturing the spatial distributions of different demographic groups using real-world census data and enabling geographically diverse behavioural modelling. We implement and compare three decision scenarios, independent reasoning, household influence, and message framing, and simulate self-reporting outcomes in San Francisco and Atlanta. Results reveal that income and education are the dominant drivers of reporting rate variation, with smaller but consistent effects from geography, LLM model choice, and message framing. Our framework generates synthetic data that captures both social and geographic heterogeneity, supporting spatial epidemiological modelling and bias-aware behavioural analysis.

Diffusion models have shown promising ability in generating high-quality time series (TS) data. Despite the initial success, existing works mostly focus on the authenticity of data at the individual level, but pay less attention to preserving the population-level properties on the entire dataset. Such population-level properties include value distributions for each dimension and distributions of certain functional dependencies (e.g., cross-correlation, CC) between different dimensions. For instance, when generating house energy consumption TS data, the value distributions of the outside temperature and the kitchen temperature should be preserved, as well as the distribution of CC between them. Preserving such TS population-level properties is critical in maintaining the statistical insights of the datasets, mitigating model bias, and augmenting downstream tasks like TS prediction. Yet, it is often overlooked by existing models. Hence, data generated by existing models often bear distribution shifts from the original data. We propose Population-aware Diffusion for Time Series (PaD-TS), a new TS generation model that better preserves the population-level properties. The key novelties of PaD-TS include 1) a new training method explicitly incorporating TS population-level property preservation, and 2) a new dual-channel encoder model architecture that better captures the TS data structure. Empirical results in major benchmark datasets show that PaD-TS can improve the average CC distribution shift score between real and synthetic data by 5.9x while maintaining a performance comparable to state-of-the-art models on individual-level authenticity.

We study the problem of modeling a population of agents pursuing unknown goals subject to unknown computational constraints. In standard models of bounded rationality, sub-optimal decision-making is simulated by adding homoscedastic noise to optimal decisions rather than explicitly simulating constrained inference. In this work, we introduce a latent inference budget model (L-IBM) that models agents' computational constraints explicitly, via a latent variable (inferred jointly with a model of agents' goals) that controls the runtime of an iterative inference algorithm. L-IBMs make it possible to learn agent models using data from diverse populations of suboptimal actors. In three modeling tasks -- inferring navigation goals from routes, inferring communicative intents from human utterances, and predicting next moves in human chess games -- we show that L-IBMs match or outperform Boltzmann models of decision-making under uncertainty. Inferred inference budgets are themselves meaningful, efficient to compute, and correlated with measures of player skill, partner skill and task difficulty.

Genome-wide association study (GWAS) tests single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers across the genome to localize the underlying causal variant of a trait. Because causal variants are seldom observed directly, a surrogate model based on genotyped markers are widely considered. Although many methods estimating the parameters of the surrogate model have been proposed, the connection between the surrogate model and the true causal model is yet investigated. In this work, we establish the connection between the surrogate model and the true causal model. The connection shows that population structure is accounted in GWAS by modelling the variant of interest and not the trait. Such observation explains how environmental confounding can be partially corrected using genetic covariates and why the previously claimed connection between PC correction and linear mixed models is incorrect.

In many modern day systems such as information extraction and knowledge management agents, ontologies play a vital role in maintaining the concept hierarchies of the selected domain. However, ontology population has become a problematic process due to its nature of heavy coupling with manual human intervention. With the use of word embeddings in the field of natural language processing, it became a popular topic due to its ability to cope up with semantic sensitivity. Hence, in this study, we propose a novel way of semi-supervised ontology population through word embeddings as the basis. We built several models including traditional benchmark models and new types of models which are based on word embeddings. Finally, we ensemble them together to come up with a synergistic model with better accuracy. We demonstrate that our ensemble model can outperform the individual models.

While test-time reasoning enables language models to tackle complex tasks, searching or planning in natural language can be slow, costly, and error-prone. But even when LMs struggle to emulate the precise reasoning steps needed to solve a problem, they often excel at describing its abstract structure--both how to verify solutions and how to search for them. This paper introduces DisCIPL, a method for "self-steering" LMs where a Planner model generates a task-specific inference program that is executed by a population of Follower models. Our approach equips LMs with the ability to write recursive search procedures that guide LM inference, enabling new forms of verifiable and efficient reasoning. When instantiated with a small Follower (e.g., Llama-3.2-1B), DisCIPL matches (and sometimes outperforms) much larger models, including GPT-4o and o1, on challenging constrained generation tasks. In decoupling planning from execution, our work opens up a design space of highly-parallelized Monte Carlo inference strategies that outperform standard best-of-N sampling, require no finetuning, and can be implemented automatically by existing LMs.

Neural populations exhibit latent dynamical structures that drive time-evolving spiking activities, motivating the search for models that capture both intrinsic network dynamics and external unobserved influences. In this work, we introduce LangevinFlow, a sequential Variational Auto-Encoder where the time evolution of latent variables is governed by the underdamped Langevin equation. Our approach incorporates physical priors -- such as inertia, damping, a learned potential function, and stochastic forces -- to represent both autonomous and non-autonomous processes in neural systems. Crucially, the potential function is parameterized as a network of locally coupled oscillators, biasing the model toward oscillatory and flow-like behaviors observed in biological neural populations. Our model features a recurrent encoder, a one-layer Transformer decoder, and Langevin dynamics in the latent space. Empirically, our method outperforms state-of-the-art baselines on synthetic neural populations generated by a Lorenz attractor, closely matching ground-truth firing rates. On the Neural Latents Benchmark (NLB), the model achieves superior held-out neuron likelihoods (bits per spike) and forward prediction accuracy across four challenging datasets. It also matches or surpasses alternative methods in decoding behavioral metrics such as hand velocity. Overall, this work introduces a flexible, physics-inspired, high-performing framework for modeling complex neural population dynamics and their unobserved influences.

Our ability to use deep learning approaches to decipher neural activity would likely benefit from greater scale, in terms of both model size and datasets. However, the integration of many neural recordings into one unified model is challenging, as each recording contains the activity of different neurons from different individual animals. In this paper, we introduce a training framework and architecture designed to model the population dynamics of neural activity across diverse, large-scale neural recordings. Our method first tokenizes individual spikes within the dataset to build an efficient representation of neural events that captures the fine temporal structure of neural activity. We then employ cross-attention and a PerceiverIO backbone to further construct a latent tokenization of neural population activities. Utilizing this architecture and training framework, we construct a large-scale multi-session model trained on large datasets from seven nonhuman primates, spanning over 158 different sessions of recording from over 27,373 neural units and over 100 hours of recordings. In a number of different tasks, we demonstrate that our pretrained model can be rapidly adapted to new, unseen sessions with unspecified neuron correspondence, enabling few-shot performance with minimal labels. This work presents a powerful new approach for building deep learning tools to analyze neural data and stakes out a clear path to training at scale.

\noindent The modal age at death is an increasingly used measure for understanding longevity and mortality patterns. However, existing estimation methods focus on point estimates, overlooking the inherent variability and uncertainty in mortality data. This study addresses this gap by introducing a probabilistic framework for estimating the probability distribution of the modal age at death. Using a multinomial model for age-specific death counts and leveraging a Gaussian approximation, our methodology captures variability while aligning with the discrete nature of mortality data. Empirical examples are based on mortality data from six different countries. By quantifying uncertainty around the modal age at death and improving robustness to data fluctuations, this approach offers valuable insights for demographic research and policy planning.

This chapter provides a pedagogical introduction and overview of spatial and temporal correlation and fluctuation effects resulting from the fundamentally stochastic kinetics underlying chemical reactions and the dynamics of populations or epidemics. After reviewing the assumptions and mean-field type approximations involved in the construction of chemical rate equations for uniform reactant densities, we first discuss spatial clustering in birth-death systems, where non-linearities are introduced through either density-limiting pair reactions, or equivalently via local imposition of finite carrying capacities. The competition of offspring production, death, and non-linear inhibition induces a population extinction threshold, which represents a non-equilibrium phase transition that separates active from absorbing states. This continuous transition is characterized by the universal scaling exponents of critical directed percolation clusters. Next we focus on the emergence of depletion zones in single-species annihilation processes and spatial population segregation with the associated reaction fronts in two-species pair annihilation. These strong (anti-)correlation effects are dynamically generated by the underlying stochastic kinetics. Finally, we address noise-induced and fluctuation-stabilized spatio-temporal patterns in basic predator-prey systems, exemplified by spreading activity fronts in the two-species Lotka-Volterra model as well as spiral structures in the May-Leonard variant of cyclically competing three-species systems akin to rock-paper-scissors games.

The Wilson-Cowan model for metapopulation, a Neural Mass Network Model, treats different subcortical regions of the brain as connected nodes, with connections representing various types of structural, functional, or effective neuronal connectivity between these regions. Each region comprises interacting populations of excitatory and inhibitory cells, consistent with the standard Wilson-Cowan model. By incorporating stable attractors into such a metapopulation model's dynamics, we transform it into a learning algorithm capable of achieving high image and text classification accuracy. We test it on MNIST and Fashion MNIST, in combination with convolutional neural networks, on CIFAR-10 and TF-FLOWERS, and, in combination with a transformer architecture (BERT), on IMDB, always showing high classification accuracy. These numerical evaluations illustrate that minimal modifications to the Wilson-Cowan model for metapopulation can reveal unique and previously unobserved dynamics.

Traditional sociological research often relies on human participation, which, though effective, is expensive, challenging to scale, and with ethical concerns. Recent advancements in large language models (LLMs) highlight their potential to simulate human behavior, enabling the replication of individual responses and facilitating studies on many interdisciplinary studies. In this paper, we conduct a comprehensive survey of this field, illustrating the recent progress in simulation driven by LLM-empowered agents. We categorize the simulations into three types: (1) Individual Simulation, which mimics specific individuals or demographic groups; (2) Scenario Simulation, where multiple agents collaborate to achieve goals within specific contexts; and (3) Society Simulation, which models interactions within agent societies to reflect the complexity and variety of real-world dynamics. These simulations follow a progression, ranging from detailed individual modeling to large-scale societal phenomena. We provide a detailed discussion of each simulation type, including the architecture or key components of the simulation, the classification of objectives or scenarios and the evaluation method. Afterward, we summarize commonly used datasets and benchmarks. Finally, we discuss the trends across these three types of simulation. A repository for the related sources is at {https://github.com/FudanDISC/SocialAgent}.

This paper presents a novel approach for modeling mortality rates above age 70 by proposing a mixture-based model. This model is compared to four other widely used models: the Beard, Gompertz, Makeham, and Perks models. Our model can capture the complex behavior of mortality rates at all ages, providing a more accurate representation of the data. To evaluate the performance of our model, we applied it to two countries with different data quality: Japan and Brazil. Our results show that the proposed model outperforms the other models in both countries, particularly in Japan where it obtained an absolute mean percentage error of less than 7%, while the other models presented values greater than 30%. This highlights the ability of our model to adapt to different data quality and country-specific mortality patterns. In summary, this paper presents a mixture-based model that captures the behavior of mortality rates at all ages and outperforms other widely used models in both high- and low-quality data settings. This model can improve mortality prediction and inform public health policy.