Daily Papers

The two-stage object pose estimation paradigm first detects semantic keypoints on the image and then estimates the 6D pose by minimizing reprojection errors. Despite performing well on standard benchmarks, existing techniques offer no provable guarantees on the quality and uncertainty of the estimation. In this paper, we inject two fundamental changes, namely conformal keypoint detection and geometric uncertainty propagation, into the two-stage paradigm and propose the first pose estimator that endows an estimation with provable and computable worst-case error bounds. On one hand, conformal keypoint detection applies the statistical machinery of inductive conformal prediction to convert heuristic keypoint detections into circular or elliptical prediction sets that cover the groundtruth keypoints with a user-specified marginal probability (e.g., 90%). Geometric uncertainty propagation, on the other, propagates the geometric constraints on the keypoints to the 6D object pose, leading to a Pose UnceRtainty SEt (PURSE) that guarantees coverage of the groundtruth pose with the same probability. The PURSE, however, is a nonconvex set that does not directly lead to estimated poses and uncertainties. Therefore, we develop RANdom SAmple averaGing (RANSAG) to compute an average pose and apply semidefinite relaxation to upper bound the worst-case errors between the average pose and the groundtruth. On the LineMOD Occlusion dataset we demonstrate: (i) the PURSE covers the groundtruth with valid probabilities; (ii) the worst-case error bounds provide correct uncertainty quantification; and (iii) the average pose achieves better or similar accuracy as representative methods based on sparse keypoints.

Object pose estimation is crucial to robotic perception and typically provides a single-pose estimate. However, a single estimate cannot capture pose uncertainty deriving from visual ambiguity, which can lead to unreliable behavior. Existing pose distribution methods rely heavily on color information, often unavailable in industrial settings. We propose a novel neural network-based method for estimating object pose uncertainty using only 3D colorless data. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first approach that leverages deep learning for pose distribution estimation without relying on RGB input. We validate our method in a real-world bin picking scenario with objects of varying geometric ambiguity. Our current implementation focuses on symmetries in reflection and revolution, but the framework is extendable to full SE(3) pose distribution estimation. Source code available at opde3d.github.io

Monocular 3D human pose estimation is quite challenging due to the inherent ambiguity and occlusion, which often lead to high uncertainty and indeterminacy. On the other hand, diffusion models have recently emerged as an effective tool for generating high-quality images from noise. Inspired by their capability, we explore a novel pose estimation framework (DiffPose) that formulates 3D pose estimation as a reverse diffusion process. We incorporate novel designs into our DiffPose to facilitate the diffusion process for 3D pose estimation: a pose-specific initialization of pose uncertainty distributions, a Gaussian Mixture Model-based forward diffusion process, and a context-conditioned reverse diffusion process. Our proposed DiffPose significantly outperforms existing methods on the widely used pose estimation benchmarks Human3.6M and MPI-INF-3DHP. Project page: https://gongjia0208.github.io/Diffpose/.

We present FORGE, a method for sim-to-real transfer of force-aware manipulation policies in the presence of significant pose uncertainty. During simulation-based policy learning, FORGE combines a force threshold mechanism with a dynamics randomization scheme to enable robust transfer of the learned policies to the real robot. At deployment, FORGE policies, conditioned on a maximum allowable force, adaptively perform contact-rich tasks while avoiding aggressive and unsafe behaviour, regardless of the controller gains. Additionally, FORGE policies predict task success, enabling efficient termination and autonomous tuning of the force threshold. We show that FORGE can be used to learn a variety of robust contact-rich policies, including the forceful insertion of snap-fit connectors. We further demonstrate the multistage assembly of a planetary gear system, which requires success across three assembly tasks: nut threading, insertion, and gear meshing. Project website can be accessed at https://noseworm.github.io/forge/.

Odometry estimation is crucial for every autonomous system requiring navigation in an unknown environment. In modern mobile robots, 3D LiDAR-inertial systems are often used for this task. By fusing LiDAR scans and IMU measurements, these systems can reduce the accumulated drift caused by sequentially registering individual LiDAR scans and provide a robust pose estimate. Although effective, LiDAR-inertial odometry systems require proper parameter tuning to be deployed. In this paper, we propose LIO-EKF, a tightly-coupled LiDAR-inertial odometry system based on point-to-point registration and the classical extended Kalman filter scheme. We propose an adaptive data association that considers the relative pose uncertainty, the map discretization errors, and the LiDAR noise. In this way, we can substantially reduce the parameters to tune for a given type of environment. The experimental evaluation suggests that the proposed system performs on par with the state-of-the-art LiDAR-inertial odometry pipelines but is significantly faster in computing the odometry. The source code of our implementation is publicly available (https://github.com/YibinWu/LIO-EKF).

Bundle Adjustment (BA) refers to the problem of simultaneous determination of sensor poses and scene geometry, which is a fundamental problem in robot vision. This paper presents an efficient and consistent bundle adjustment method for lidar sensors. The method employs edge and plane features to represent the scene geometry, and directly minimizes the natural Euclidean distance from each raw point to the respective geometry feature. A nice property of this formulation is that the geometry features can be analytically solved, drastically reducing the dimension of the numerical optimization. To represent and solve the resultant optimization problem more efficiently, this paper then proposes a novel concept {\it point clusters}, which encodes all raw points associated to the same feature by a compact set of parameters, the {\it point cluster coordinates}. We derive the closed-form derivatives, up to the second order, of the BA optimization based on the point cluster coordinates and show their theoretical properties such as the null spaces and sparsity. Based on these theoretical results, this paper develops an efficient second-order BA solver. Besides estimating the lidar poses, the solver also exploits the second order information to estimate the pose uncertainty caused by measurement noises, leading to consistent estimates of lidar poses. Moreover, thanks to the use of point cluster, the developed solver fundamentally avoids the enumeration of each raw point (which is very time-consuming due to the large number) in all steps of the optimization: cost evaluation, derivatives evaluation and uncertainty evaluation. The implementation of our method is open sourced to benefit the robotics community and beyond.

To represent people in mixed reality applications for collaboration and communication, we need to generate realistic and faithful avatar poses. However, the signal streams that can be applied for this task from head-mounted devices (HMDs) are typically limited to head pose and hand pose estimates. While these signals are valuable, they are an incomplete representation of the human body, making it challenging to generate a faithful full-body avatar. We address this challenge by developing a flow-based generative model of the 3D human body from sparse observations, wherein we learn not only a conditional distribution of 3D human pose, but also a probabilistic mapping from observations to the latent space from which we can generate a plausible pose along with uncertainty estimates for the joints. We show that our approach is not only a strong predictive model, but can also act as an efficient pose prior in different optimization settings where a good initial latent code plays a major role.

Object pose estimation constitutes a critical area within the domain of 3D vision. While contemporary state-of-the-art methods that leverage real-world pose annotations have demonstrated commendable performance, the procurement of such real training data incurs substantial costs. This paper focuses on a specific setting wherein only 3D CAD models are utilized as a priori knowledge, devoid of any background or clutter information. We introduce a novel method, CPPF++, designed for sim-to-real pose estimation. This method builds upon the foundational point-pair voting scheme of CPPF, reformulating it through a probabilistic view. To address the challenge posed by vote collision, we propose a novel approach that involves modeling the voting uncertainty by estimating the probabilistic distribution of each point pair within the canonical space. Furthermore, we augment the contextual information provided by each voting unit through the introduction of N-point tuples. To enhance the robustness and accuracy of the model, we incorporate several innovative modules, including noisy pair filtering, online alignment optimization, and a tuple feature ensemble. Alongside these methodological advancements, we introduce a new category-level pose estimation dataset, named DiversePose 300. Empirical evidence demonstrates that our method significantly surpasses previous sim-to-real approaches and achieves comparable or superior performance on novel datasets. Our code is available on https://github.com/qq456cvb/CPPF2.

We introduce UPose3D, a novel approach for multi-view 3D human pose estimation, addressing challenges in accuracy and scalability. Our method advances existing pose estimation frameworks by improving robustness and flexibility without requiring direct 3D annotations. At the core of our method, a pose compiler module refines predictions from a 2D keypoints estimator that operates on a single image by leveraging temporal and cross-view information. Our novel cross-view fusion strategy is scalable to any number of cameras, while our synthetic data generation strategy ensures generalization across diverse actors, scenes, and viewpoints. Finally, UPose3D leverages the prediction uncertainty of both the 2D keypoint estimator and the pose compiler module. This provides robustness to outliers and noisy data, resulting in state-of-the-art performance in out-of-distribution settings. In addition, for in-distribution settings, UPose3D yields performance rivalling methods that rely on 3D annotated data while being the state-of-the-art among methods relying only on 2D supervision.

Although data-driven methods have achieved success in 3D human pose estimation, they often suffer from domain gaps and exhibit limited generalization. In contrast, optimization-based methods excel in fine-tuning for specific cases but are generally inferior to data-driven methods in overall performance. We observe that previous optimization-based methods commonly rely on a projection constraint, which only ensures alignment in 2D space, potentially leading to the overfitting problem. To address this, we propose an Uncertainty-Aware testing-time Optimization (UAO) framework, which keeps the prior information of the pre-trained model and alleviates the overfitting problem using the uncertainty of joints. Specifically, during the training phase, we design an effective 2D-to-3D network for estimating the corresponding 3D pose while quantifying the uncertainty of each 3D joint. For optimization during testing, the proposed optimization framework freezes the pre-trained model and optimizes only a latent state. Projection loss is then employed to ensure the generated poses are well aligned in 2D space for high-quality optimization. Furthermore, we utilize the uncertainty of each joint to determine how much each joint is allowed for optimization. The effectiveness and superiority of the proposed framework are validated through extensive experiments on challenging datasets: Human3.6M, MPI-INF-3DHP, and 3DPW. Notably, our approach outperforms the previous best result by a large margin of 5.5\% on Human3.6M. Code is available at https://github.com/xiu-cs/UAO-Pose3D{https://github.com/xiu-cs/UAO-Pose3D}.

We propose a keypoint-based object-level SLAM framework that can provide globally consistent 6DoF pose estimates for symmetric and asymmetric objects alike. To the best of our knowledge, our system is among the first to utilize the camera pose information from SLAM to provide prior knowledge for tracking keypoints on symmetric objects -- ensuring that new measurements are consistent with the current 3D scene. Moreover, our semantic keypoint network is trained to predict the Gaussian covariance for the keypoints that captures the true error of the prediction, and thus is not only useful as a weight for the residuals in the system's optimization problems, but also as a means to detect harmful statistical outliers without choosing a manual threshold. Experiments show that our method provides competitive performance to the state of the art in 6DoF object pose estimation, and at a real-time speed. Our code, pre-trained models, and keypoint labels are available https://github.com/rpng/suo_slam.

Slippery road conditions pose significant challenges for autonomous driving. Beyond predicting road grip, it is crucial to estimate its uncertainty reliably to ensure safe vehicle control. In this work, we benchmark several uncertainty prediction methods to assess their effectiveness for grip uncertainty estimation. Additionally, we propose a novel approach that leverages road surface state segmentation to predict grip uncertainty. Our method estimates a pixel-wise grip probability distribution based on inferred road surface conditions. Experimental results indicate that the proposed approach enhances the robustness of grip uncertainty prediction.

The regression of 3D Human Pose and Shape (HPS) from an image is becoming increasingly accurate. This makes the results useful for downstream tasks like human action recognition or 3D graphics. Yet, no regressor is perfect, and accuracy can be affected by ambiguous image evidence or by poses and appearance that are unseen during training. Most current HPS regressors, however, do not report the confidence of their outputs, meaning that downstream tasks cannot differentiate accurate estimates from inaccurate ones. To address this, we develop POCO, a novel framework for training HPS regressors to estimate not only a 3D human body, but also their confidence, in a single feed-forward pass. Specifically, POCO estimates both the 3D body pose and a per-sample variance. The key idea is to introduce a Dual Conditioning Strategy (DCS) for regressing uncertainty that is highly correlated to pose reconstruction quality. The POCO framework can be applied to any HPS regressor and here we evaluate it by modifying HMR, PARE, and CLIFF. In all cases, training the network to reason about uncertainty helps it learn to more accurately estimate 3D pose. While this was not our goal, the improvement is modest but consistent. Our main motivation is to provide uncertainty estimates for downstream tasks; we demonstrate this in two ways: (1) We use the confidence estimates to bootstrap HPS training. Given unlabelled image data, we take the confident estimates of a POCO-trained regressor as pseudo ground truth. Retraining with this automatically-curated data improves accuracy. (2) We exploit uncertainty in video pose estimation by automatically identifying uncertain frames (e.g. due to occlusion) and inpainting these from confident frames. Code and models will be available for research at https://poco.is.tue.mpg.de.

The leading AI companies are increasingly focused on building generalist AI agents -- systems that can autonomously plan, act, and pursue goals across almost all tasks that humans can perform. Despite how useful these systems might be, unchecked AI agency poses significant risks to public safety and security, ranging from misuse by malicious actors to a potentially irreversible loss of human control. We discuss how these risks arise from current AI training methods. Indeed, various scenarios and experiments have demonstrated the possibility of AI agents engaging in deception or pursuing goals that were not specified by human operators and that conflict with human interests, such as self-preservation. Following the precautionary principle, we see a strong need for safer, yet still useful, alternatives to the current agency-driven trajectory. Accordingly, we propose as a core building block for further advances the development of a non-agentic AI system that is trustworthy and safe by design, which we call Scientist AI. This system is designed to explain the world from observations, as opposed to taking actions in it to imitate or please humans. It comprises a world model that generates theories to explain data and a question-answering inference machine. Both components operate with an explicit notion of uncertainty to mitigate the risks of overconfident predictions. In light of these considerations, a Scientist AI could be used to assist human researchers in accelerating scientific progress, including in AI safety. In particular, our system can be employed as a guardrail against AI agents that might be created despite the risks involved. Ultimately, focusing on non-agentic AI may enable the benefits of AI innovation while avoiding the risks associated with the current trajectory. We hope these arguments will motivate researchers, developers, and policymakers to favor this safer path.

Camera localization, i.e., camera pose regression, represents an important task in computer vision since it has many practical applications such as in the context of intelligent vehicles and their localization. Having reliable estimates of the regression uncertainties is also important, as it would allow us to catch dangerous localization failures. In the literature, uncertainty estimation in Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) is often performed through sampling methods, such as Monte Carlo Dropout (MCD) and Deep Ensemble (DE), at the expense of undesirable execution time or an increase in hardware resources. In this work, we considered an uncertainty estimation approach named Deep Evidential Regression (DER) that avoids any sampling technique, providing direct uncertainty estimates. Our goal is to provide a systematic approach to intercept localization failures of camera localization systems based on DNNs architectures, by analyzing the generated uncertainties. We propose to exploit CMRNet, a DNN approach for multi-modal image to LiDAR map registration, by modifying its internal configuration to allow for extensive experimental activity on the KITTI dataset. The experimental section highlights CMRNet's major flaws and proves that our proposal does not compromise the original localization performances but also provides, at the same time, the necessary introspection measures that would allow end-users to act accordingly.

Due to depth ambiguities and occlusions, lifting 2D poses to 3D is a highly ill-posed problem. Well-calibrated distributions of possible poses can make these ambiguities explicit and preserve the resulting uncertainty for downstream tasks. This study shows that previous attempts, which account for these ambiguities via multiple hypotheses generation, produce miscalibrated distributions. We identify that miscalibration can be attributed to the use of sample-based metrics such as minMPJPE. In a series of simulations, we show that minimizing minMPJPE, as commonly done, should converge to the correct mean prediction. However, it fails to correctly capture the uncertainty, thus resulting in a miscalibrated distribution. To mitigate this problem, we propose an accurate and well-calibrated model called Conditional Graph Normalizing Flow (cGNFs). Our model is structured such that a single cGNF can estimate both conditional and marginal densities within the same model - effectively solving a zero-shot density estimation problem. We evaluate cGNF on the Human~3.6M dataset and show that cGNF provides a well-calibrated distribution estimate while being close to state-of-the-art in terms of overall minMPJPE. Furthermore, cGNF outperforms previous methods on occluded joints while it remains well-calibrated.

Autonomous driving systems must operate safely in human-populated indoor environments, where challenges such as limited perception and occlusion sensitivity arise when relying solely on onboard sensors. These factors generate difficulties in the accurate recognition of human intentions and the generation of comfortable, socially aware trajectories. To address these issues, we propose SAP-CoPE, a social-aware planning framework that integrates cooperative infrastructure with a novel 3D human pose estimation method and a model predictive control-based controller. This real-time framework formulates an optimization problem that accounts for uncertainty propagation in the camera projection matrix while ensuring human joint coherence. The proposed method is adaptable to single- or multi-camera configurations and can incorporate sparse LiDAR point-cloud data. To enhance safety and comfort in human environments, we integrate a human personal space field based on human pose into a model predictive controller, enabling the system to navigate while avoiding discomfort zones. Extensive evaluations in both simulated and real-world settings demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in generating socially aware trajectories for autonomous systems.

Inertial odometry (IO) using strap-down inertial measurement units (IMUs) is critical in many robotic applications where precise orientation and position tracking are essential. Prior kinematic motion model-based IO methods often use a simplified linearized IMU noise model and thus usually encounter difficulties in modeling non-deterministic errors arising from environmental disturbances and mechanical defects. In contrast, data-driven IO methods struggle to accurately model the sensor motions, often leading to generalizability and interoperability issues. To address these challenges, we present AirIMU, a hybrid approach to estimate the uncertainty, especially the non-deterministic errors, by data-driven methods and increase the generalization abilities using model-based methods. We demonstrate the adaptability of AirIMU using a full spectrum of IMUs, from low-cost automotive grades to high-end navigation grades. We also validate its effectiveness on various platforms, including hand-held devices, vehicles, and a helicopter that covers a trajectory of 262 kilometers. In the ablation study, we validate the effectiveness of our learned uncertainty in an IMU-GPS pose graph optimization experiment, achieving a 31.6\% improvement in accuracy. Experiments demonstrate that jointly training the IMU noise correction and uncertainty estimation synergistically benefits both tasks.

Recent contributions have demonstrated that it is possible to recognize the pose of humans densely and accurately given a large dataset of poses annotated in detail. In principle, the same approach could be extended to any animal class, but the effort required for collecting new annotations for each case makes this strategy impractical, despite important applications in natural conservation, science and business. We show that, at least for proximal animal classes such as chimpanzees, it is possible to transfer the knowledge existing in dense pose recognition for humans, as well as in more general object detectors and segmenters, to the problem of dense pose recognition in other classes. We do this by (1) establishing a DensePose model for the new animal which is also geometrically aligned to humans (2) introducing a multi-head R-CNN architecture that facilitates transfer of multiple recognition tasks between classes, (3) finding which combination of known classes can be transferred most effectively to the new animal and (4) using self-calibrated uncertainty heads to generate pseudo-labels graded by quality for training a model for this class. We also introduce two benchmark datasets labelled in the manner of DensePose for the class chimpanzee and use them to evaluate our approach, showing excellent transfer learning performance.

We propose Infinite-World, a robust interactive world model capable of maintaining coherent visual memory over 1000+ frames in complex real-world environments. While existing world models can be efficiently optimized on synthetic data with perfect ground-truth, they lack an effective training paradigm for real-world videos due to noisy pose estimations and the scarcity of viewpoint revisits. To bridge this gap, we first introduce a Hierarchical Pose-free Memory Compressor (HPMC) that recursively distills historical latents into a fixed-budget representation. By jointly optimizing the compressor with the generative backbone, HPMC enables the model to autonomously anchor generations in the distant past with bounded computational cost, eliminating the need for explicit geometric priors. Second, we propose an Uncertainty-aware Action Labeling module that discretizes continuous motion into a tri-state logic. This strategy maximizes the utilization of raw video data while shielding the deterministic action space from being corrupted by noisy trajectories, ensuring robust action-response learning. Furthermore, guided by insights from a pilot toy study, we employ a Revisit-Dense Finetuning Strategy using a compact, 30-minute dataset to efficiently activate the model's long-range loop-closure capabilities. Extensive experiments, including objective metrics and user studies, demonstrate that Infinite-World achieves superior performance in visual quality, action controllability, and spatial consistency.

We present a solution to egocentric 3D body pose estimation from monocular images captured from downward looking fish-eye cameras installed on the rim of a head mounted VR device. This unusual viewpoint leads to images with unique visual appearance, with severe self-occlusions and perspective distortions that result in drastic differences in resolution between lower and upper body. We propose an encoder-decoder architecture with a novel multi-branch decoder designed to account for the varying uncertainty in 2D predictions. The quantitative evaluation, on synthetic and real-world datasets, shows that our strategy leads to substantial improvements in accuracy over state of the art egocentric approaches. To tackle the lack of labelled data we also introduced a large photo-realistic synthetic dataset. xR-EgoPose offers high quality renderings of people with diverse skintones, body shapes and clothing, performing a range of actions. Our experiments show that the high variability in our new synthetic training corpus leads to good generalization to real world footage and to state of theart results on real world datasets with ground truth. Moreover, an evaluation on the Human3.6M benchmark shows that the performance of our method is on par with top performing approaches on the more classic problem of 3D human pose from a third person viewpoint.

Deep ensembles (DE) have emerged as a powerful approach for quantifying predictive uncertainty and distinguishing its aleatoric and epistemic components, thereby enhancing model robustness and reliability. However, their high computational and memory costs during inference pose significant challenges for wide practical deployment. To overcome this issue, we propose credal ensemble distillation (CED), a novel framework that compresses a DE into a single model, CREDIT, for classification tasks. Instead of a single softmax probability distribution, CREDIT predicts class-wise probability intervals that define a credal set, a convex set of probability distributions, for uncertainty quantification. Empirical results on out-of-distribution detection benchmarks demonstrate that CED achieves superior or comparable uncertainty estimation compared to several existing baselines, while substantially reducing inference overhead compared to DE.

Hallucinations, defined as instances where Large Language Models (LLMs) generate false or misleading content, pose a significant challenge that impacts the safety and trust of downstream applications. We introduce UQLM, a Python package for LLM hallucination detection using state-of-the-art uncertainty quantification (UQ) techniques. This toolkit offers a suite of UQ-based scorers that compute response-level confidence scores ranging from 0 to 1. This library provides an off-the-shelf solution for UQ-based hallucination detection that can be easily integrated to enhance the reliability of LLM outputs.

With the emergence of service robots and surveillance cameras, dynamic face recognition (DFR) in wild has received much attention in recent years. Face detection and head pose estimation are two important steps for DFR. Very often, the pose is estimated after the face detection. However, such sequential computations lead to higher latency. In this paper, we propose a low latency and lightweight network for simultaneous face detection, landmark localization and head pose estimation. Inspired by the observation that it is more challenging to locate the facial landmarks for faces with large angles, a pose loss is proposed to constrain the learning. Moreover, we also propose an uncertainty multi-task loss to learn the weights of individual tasks automatically. Another challenge is that robots often use low computational units like ARM based computing core and we often need to use lightweight networks instead of the heavy ones, which lead to performance drop especially for small and hard faces. In this paper, we propose online feedback sampling to augment the training samples across different scales, which increases the diversity of training data automatically. Through validation in commonly used WIDER FACE, AFLW and AFLW2000 datasets, the results show that the proposed method achieves the state-of-the-art performance in low computational resources. The code and data will be available at https://github.com/lyp-deeplearning/MOS-Multi-Task-Face-Detect.

State-of-the-art whole-body pose estimators often lack robustness, producing anatomically implausible predictions in challenging scenes. We posit this failure stems from spurious correlations learned from visual context, a problem we formalize using a Structural Causal Model (SCM). The SCM identifies visual context as a confounder that creates a non-causal backdoor path, corrupting the model's reasoning. We introduce the Causal Intervention Graph Pose (CIGPose) framework to address this by approximating the true causal effect between visual evidence and pose. The core of CIGPose is a novel Causal Intervention Module: it first identifies confounded keypoint representations via predictive uncertainty and then replaces them with learned, context-invariant canonical embeddings. These deconfounded embeddings are processed by a hierarchical graph neural network that reasons over the human skeleton at both local and global semantic levels to enforce anatomical plausibility. Extensive experiments show CIGPose achieves a new state-of-the-art on COCO-WholeBody. Notably, our CIGPose-x model achieves 67.0\% AP, surpassing prior methods that rely on extra training data. With the additional UBody dataset, CIGPose-x is further boosted to 67.5\% AP, demonstrating superior robustness and data efficiency. The codes and models are publicly available at https://github.com/53mins/CIGPose.

Recovering 3D human poses from a monocular camera view is a highly ill-posed problem due to the depth ambiguity. Earlier studies on 3D human pose lifting from 2D often contain incorrect-yet-overconfident 3D estimations. To mitigate the problem, emerging probabilistic approaches treat the 3D estimations as a distribution, taking into account the uncertainty measurement of the poses. Falling in a similar category, we proposed FMPose, a probabilistic 3D human pose estimation method based on the flow matching generative approach. Conditioned on the 2D cues, the flow matching scheme learns the optimal transport from a simple source distribution to the plausible 3D human pose distribution via continuous normalizing flows. The 2D lifting condition is modeled via graph convolutional networks, leveraging the learnable connections between human body joints as the graph structure for feature aggregation. While trade-offs between processing time and precision exist, already in the equal-accuracy comparison, FMPose exhibits significantly faster processing time than the diffusion model, and also offers another faster and more accurate configuration. Experimental results show major improvements of our FMPose over current state-of-the-art methods on two common benchmarks for 3D human pose estimation, namely Human3.6M, MPI-INF-3DHP. Additionally, FMPose shows competitive performance on the more challenging 3DPW dataset. The code implementation is available at https://github.com/cuongle1206/FMPose

Single camera 3D pose estimation is an ill-defined problem due to inherent ambiguities from depth, occlusion or keypoint noise. Multi-hypothesis pose estimation accounts for this uncertainty by providing multiple 3D poses consistent with the 2D measurements. Current research has predominantly concentrated on generating multiple hypotheses for single frame static pose estimation. In this study we focus on the new task of multi-hypothesis motion estimation. Motion estimation is not simply pose estimation applied to multiple frames, which would ignore temporal correlation across frames. Instead, it requires distributions which are capable of generating temporally consistent samples, which is significantly more challenging. To this end, we introduce Platypose, a framework that uses a diffusion model pretrained on 3D human motion sequences for zero-shot 3D pose sequence estimation. Platypose outperforms baseline methods on multiple hypotheses for motion estimation. Additionally, Platypose also achieves state-of-the-art calibration and competitive joint error when tested on static poses from Human3.6M, MPI-INF-3DHP and 3DPW. Finally, because it is zero-shot, our method generalizes flexibly to different settings such as multi-camera inference.

We present a novel self-supervised algorithm named MotionHint for monocular visual odometry (VO) that takes motion constraints into account. A key aspect of our approach is to use an appropriate motion model that can help existing self-supervised monocular VO (SSM-VO) algorithms to overcome issues related to the local minima within their self-supervised loss functions. The motion model is expressed with a neural network named PPnet. It is trained to coarsely predict the next pose of the camera and the uncertainty of this prediction. Our self-supervised approach combines the original loss and the motion loss, which is the weighted difference between the prediction and the generated ego-motion. Taking two existing SSM-VO systems as our baseline, we evaluate our MotionHint algorithm on the standard KITTI benchmark. Experimental results show that our MotionHint algorithm can be easily applied to existing open-sourced state-of-the-art SSM-VO systems to greatly improve the performance by reducing the resulting ATE by up to 28.73%.

Spontaneous speech emotion data usually contain perceptual grades where graders assign emotion score after listening to the speech files. Such perceptual grades introduce uncertainty in labels due to grader opinion variation. Grader variation is addressed by using consensus grades as groundtruth, where the emotion with the highest vote is selected. Consensus grades fail to consider ambiguous instances where a speech sample may contain multiple emotions, as captured through grader opinion uncertainty. We demonstrate that using the probability density function of the emotion grades as targets instead of the commonly used consensus grades, provide better performance on benchmark evaluation sets compared to results reported in the literature. We show that a saliency driven foundation model (FM) representation selection helps to train a state-of-the-art speech emotion model for both dimensional and categorical emotion recognition. Comparing representations obtained from different FMs, we observed that focusing on overall test-set performance can be deceiving, as it fails to reveal the models generalization capacity across speakers and gender. We demonstrate that performance evaluation across multiple test-sets and performance analysis across gender and speakers are useful in assessing usefulness of emotion models. Finally, we demonstrate that label uncertainty and data-skew pose a challenge to model evaluation, where instead of using the best hypothesis, it is useful to consider the 2- or 3-best hypotheses.

Egocentric human motion estimation is essential for AR/VR experiences, yet remains challenging due to limited body coverage from the egocentric viewpoint, frequent occlusions, and scarce labeled data. We present EgoPoseFormer v2, a method that addresses these challenges through two key contributions: (1) a transformer-based model for temporally consistent and spatially grounded body pose estimation, and (2) an auto-labeling system that enables the use of large unlabeled datasets for training. Our model is fully differentiable, introduces identity-conditioned queries, multi-view spatial refinement, causal temporal attention, and supports both keypoints and parametric body representations under a constant compute budget. The auto-labeling system scales learning to tens of millions of unlabeled frames via uncertainty-aware semi-supervised training. The system follows a teacher-student schema to generate pseudo-labels and guide training with uncertainty distillation, enabling the model to generalize to different environments. On the EgoBody3M benchmark, with a 0.8 ms latency on GPU, our model outperforms two state-of-the-art methods by 12.2% and 19.4% in accuracy, and reduces temporal jitter by 22.2% and 51.7%. Furthermore, our auto-labeling system further improves the wrist MPJPE by 13.1%.

We consider the task of learning to estimate human pose in still images. In order to avoid the high cost of full supervision, we propose to use a diverse data set, which consists of two types of annotations: (i) a small number of images are labeled using the expensive ground-truth pose; and (ii) other images are labeled using the inexpensive action label. As action information helps narrow down the pose of a human, we argue that this approach can help reduce the cost of training without significantly affecting the accuracy. To demonstrate this we design a probabilistic framework that employs two distributions: (i) a conditional distribution to model the uncertainty over the human pose given the image and the action; and (ii) a prediction distribution, which provides the pose of an image without using any action information. We jointly estimate the parameters of the two aforementioned distributions by minimizing their dissimilarity coefficient, as measured by a task-specific loss function. During both training and testing, we only require an efficient sampling strategy for both the aforementioned distributions. This allows us to use deep probabilistic networks that are capable of providing accurate pose estimates for previously unseen images. Using the MPII data set, we show that our approach outperforms baseline methods that either do not use the diverse annotations or rely on pointwise estimates of the pose.

The ability to perceive and understand 3D scenes is crucial for many applications in computer vision and robotics. Inverse graphics is an appealing approach to 3D scene understanding that aims to infer the 3D scene structure from 2D images. In this paper, we introduce probabilistic modeling to the inverse graphics framework to quantify uncertainty and achieve robustness in 6D pose estimation tasks. Specifically, we propose 3D Neural Embedding Likelihood (3DNEL) as a unified probabilistic model over RGB-D images, and develop efficient inference procedures on 3D scene descriptions. 3DNEL effectively combines learned neural embeddings from RGB with depth information to improve robustness in sim-to-real 6D object pose estimation from RGB-D images. Performance on the YCB-Video dataset is on par with state-of-the-art yet is much more robust in challenging regimes. In contrast to discriminative approaches, 3DNEL's probabilistic generative formulation jointly models multi-object scenes, quantifies uncertainty in a principled way, and handles object pose tracking under heavy occlusion. Finally, 3DNEL provides a principled framework for incorporating prior knowledge about the scene and objects, which allows natural extension to additional tasks like camera pose tracking from video.

Recent works have explored unifying SLAM with geometric foundation models (GFMs). However, directly using GFM predictions for tracking is highly sensitive to model capability and uncertainty, as geometric inaccuracies in the predictions can adversely affect pose estimation. To address this limitation, we present a decoupled framework that integrates classical feature-based SLAM with GFMs, which achieves higher quality and more consistent dense reconstruction. In brief, we use classical visual SLAM for robust low-latency tracking and use GFMs exclusively for mapping. By anchoring mapping to poses produced by the SLAM module and optimizing across depth scales, the proposed design avoids propagating inaccuracies from GFM predictions into pose estimation while imposing geometric constraints on the reconstruction. The system builds submaps from multiple posed keyframes and enforces scale consistency via lightweight frame and submap scale optimization. It also performs projection-based point cloud fusion within each submap, and updates submaps online to reflect trajectory updates from the feature-based SLAM. To evaluate tracking and reconstruction of our method, we introduce a loop-rich, building-scale indoor dataset with accurate sensor trajectories and LiDAR ground-truth. Experiments show that our approach achieves superior trajectory accuracy while improving reconstruction precision by 10%-20% over existing methods, with about 2 cm reconstruction error per 10 m chunk on building-scale dataset. On large-scale outdoor datasets, it attains 10 cm error per 30 m chunk (w.r.t LiDAR ground-truth models). Code and dataset: https://github.com/ori-drs/ScaRF-SLAM

We propose the MAC-VO, a novel learning-based stereo VO that leverages the learned metrics-aware matching uncertainty for dual purposes: selecting keypoint and weighing the residual in pose graph optimization. Compared to traditional geometric methods prioritizing texture-affluent features like edges, our keypoint selector employs the learned uncertainty to filter out the low-quality features based on global inconsistency. In contrast to the learning-based algorithms that model the scale-agnostic diagonal weight matrix for covariance, we design a metrics-aware covariance model to capture the spatial error during keypoint registration and the correlations between different axes. Integrating this covariance model into pose graph optimization enhances the robustness and reliability of pose estimation, particularly in challenging environments with varying illumination, feature density, and motion patterns. On public benchmark datasets, MAC-VO outperforms existing VO algorithms and even some SLAM algorithms in challenging environments. The covariance map also provides valuable information about the reliability of the estimated poses, which can benefit decision-making for autonomous systems.

Streaming geometric foundation models are emerging as a compelling alternative to SLAM systems. Yet this streaming nature introduces a fundamental issue: each prediction is made from limited context, which is vulnerable to dynamic objects and weak textures. Small local errors accumulate into severe geometric distortion and long-horizon scale drift. We argue that reliable streaming reconstruction requires geometric foundation models to be not only predictive, but also self-correcting. We introduce SURE-Map, a self-correcting framework built upon two complementary principles. First, we explicitly model cross-view geometric uncertainty. Unlike conventional depth or point confidence, which primarily reflects the reliability of individual-view prediction, our uncertainty directly measures whether the jointly predicted pose and depth induce geometrically consistent cross-view pixel correspondences. Second, because local correction alone cannot eliminate slowly accumulating scale errors, we introduce multi-timescale self-correction: fast consecutive-frame inference preserves streaming efficiency, while sparse keyframe-window inference provides longer-range geometric evidence to periodically recalibrate the scale of recent trajectories. SURE-Map establishes new state-of-the-art performance for online feed-forward reconstruction across long-horizon benchmarks, reducing ATE-RMSE from 24.00 to 17.24 m on KITTI, 5.11 to 4.74 m on Oxford Spires, and 31.37 to 28.58 m on VBR, with further improvements to 15.17, 4.63, and 22.12 m when incorporating loop-closure refinement. Project page: https://mingkai-liu.github.io/projects/sure-map/.

Scientific Large Language Models (Sci-LLMs) are transforming how knowledge is represented, integrated, and applied in scientific research, yet their progress is shaped by the complex nature of scientific data. This survey presents a comprehensive, data-centric synthesis that reframes the development of Sci-LLMs as a co-evolution between models and their underlying data substrate. We formulate a unified taxonomy of scientific data and a hierarchical model of scientific knowledge, emphasizing the multimodal, cross-scale, and domain-specific challenges that differentiate scientific corpora from general natural language processing datasets. We systematically review recent Sci-LLMs, from general-purpose foundations to specialized models across diverse scientific disciplines, alongside an extensive analysis of over 270 pre-/post-training datasets, showing why Sci-LLMs pose distinct demands -- heterogeneous, multi-scale, uncertainty-laden corpora that require representations preserving domain invariance and enabling cross-modal reasoning. On evaluation, we examine over 190 benchmark datasets and trace a shift from static exams toward process- and discovery-oriented assessments with advanced evaluation protocols. These data-centric analyses highlight persistent issues in scientific data development and discuss emerging solutions involving semi-automated annotation pipelines and expert validation. Finally, we outline a paradigm shift toward closed-loop systems where autonomous agents based on Sci-LLMs actively experiment, validate, and contribute to a living, evolving knowledge base. Collectively, this work provides a roadmap for building trustworthy, continually evolving artificial intelligence (AI) systems that function as a true partner in accelerating scientific discovery.

Despite the advances in robotics a large proportion of the of parts handling tasks in the automotive industry's internal logistics are not automated but still performed by humans. A key component to competitively automate these processes is a 6D pose estimation that can handle a large number of different parts, is adaptable to new parts with little manual effort, and is sufficiently accurate and robust with respect to industry requirements. In this context, the question arises as to the current status quo with respect to these measures. To address this we built a representative 6D pose estimation pipeline with state-of-the-art components from economically scalable real to synthetic data generation to pose estimators and evaluated it on automotive parts with regards to a realistic sequencing process. We found that using the data generation approaches, the performance of the trained 6D pose estimators are promising, but do not meet industry requirements. We reveal that the reason for this is the inability of the estimators to provide reliable uncertainties for their poses, rather than the ability of to provide sufficiently accurate poses. In this context we further analyzed how RGB- and RGB-D-based approaches compare against this background and show that they are differently vulnerable to the domain gap induced by synthetic data.

While 3D body reconstruction methods have made remarkable progress recently, it remains difficult to acquire the sufficiently accurate and numerous 3D supervisions required for training. In this paper, we propose KNOWN, a framework that effectively utilizes body KNOWledge and uNcertainty modeling to compensate for insufficient 3D supervisions. KNOWN exploits a comprehensive set of generic body constraints derived from well-established body knowledge. These generic constraints precisely and explicitly characterize the reconstruction plausibility and enable 3D reconstruction models to be trained without any 3D data. Moreover, existing methods typically use images from multiple datasets during training, which can result in data noise (e.g., inconsistent joint annotation) and data imbalance (e.g., minority images representing unusual poses or captured from challenging camera views). KNOWN solves these problems through a novel probabilistic framework that models both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty. Aleatoric uncertainty is encoded in a robust Negative Log-Likelihood (NLL) training loss, while epistemic uncertainty is used to guide model refinement. Experiments demonstrate that KNOWN's body reconstruction outperforms prior weakly-supervised approaches, particularly on the challenging minority images.

Recent advances in Computer Vision have introduced the concept of pretrained representation uncertainty, enabling zero-shot uncertainty estimation. This holds significant potential for Earth Observation (EO), where trustworthiness is critical, yet the complexity of EO data poses challenges to uncertainty-aware methods. In this work, we investigate the generalization of representation uncertainty in EO, considering the domain's unique semantic characteristics. We pretrain uncertainties on large EO datasets and propose an evaluation framework to assess their zero-shot performance in multi-label classification and segmentation EO tasks. Our findings reveal that, unlike uncertainties pretrained on natural images, EO-pretraining exhibits strong generalization across unseen EO domains, geographic locations, and target granularities, while maintaining sensitivity to variations in ground sampling distance. We demonstrate the practical utility of pretrained uncertainties showcasing their alignment with task-specific uncertainties in downstream tasks, their sensitivity to real-world EO image noise, and their ability to generate spatial uncertainty estimates out-of-the-box. Initiating the discussion on representation uncertainty in EO, our study provides insights into its strengths and limitations, paving the way for future research in the field. Code and weights are available at: https://github.com/Orion-AI-Lab/EOUncertaintyGeneralization.

While Large Language Models (LLMs) demonstrate impressive capabilities, they still struggle with generating factually incorrect content (i.e., hallucinations). A promising approach to mitigate this issue is enabling models to express uncertainty when unsure. Previous research on uncertainty modeling has primarily focused on short-form QA, but realworld applications often require much longer responses. In this work, we introduce the task of Long-form Generation with Uncertainty(LoGU). We identify two key challenges: Uncertainty Suppression, where models hesitate to express uncertainty, and Uncertainty Misalignment, where models convey uncertainty inaccurately. To tackle these challenges, we propose a refinement-based data collection framework and a two-stage training pipeline. Our framework adopts a divide-and-conquer strategy, refining uncertainty based on atomic claims. The collected data are then used in training through supervised fine-tuning (SFT) and direct preference optimization (DPO) to enhance uncertainty expression. Extensive experiments on three long-form instruction following datasets show that our method significantly improves accuracy, reduces hallucinations, and maintains the comprehensiveness of responses.

Uncertainty quantification is essential when dealing with ill-conditioned inverse problems due to the inherent nonuniqueness of the solution. Bayesian approaches allow us to determine how likely an estimation of the unknown parameters is via formulating the posterior distribution. Unfortunately, it is often not possible to formulate a prior distribution that precisely encodes our prior knowledge about the unknown. Furthermore, adherence to handcrafted priors may greatly bias the outcome of the Bayesian analysis. To address this issue, we propose to use the functional form of a randomly initialized convolutional neural network as an implicit structured prior, which is shown to promote natural images and excludes images with unnatural noise. In order to incorporate the model uncertainty into the final estimate, we sample the posterior distribution using stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics and perform Bayesian model averaging on the obtained samples. Our synthetic numerical experiment verifies that deep priors combined with Bayesian model averaging are able to partially circumvent imaging artifacts and reduce the risk of overfitting in the presence of extreme noise. Finally, we present pointwise variance of the estimates as a measure of uncertainty, which coincides with regions that are more difficult to image.

End-to-end (E2E) driving has become a cornerstone of both industry deployment and academic research, offering a single learnable pipeline that maps multi-sensor inputs to actions while avoiding hand-engineered modules. However, the reliability of such pipelines strongly depends on how well they handle uncertainty: sensors are noisy, semantics can be ambiguous, and interaction with other road users is inherently stochastic. Uncertainty also appears in multiple forms: classification vs. localization, and, crucially, in both static map elements and dynamic agents. Existing E2E approaches model only static-map uncertainty, leaving planning vulnerable to overconfident and unreliable inputs. We present UniUncer, the first lightweight, unified uncertainty framework that jointly estimates and uses uncertainty for both static and dynamic scene elements inside an E2E planner. Concretely: (1) we convert deterministic heads to probabilistic Laplace regressors that output per-vertex location and scale for vectorized static and dynamic entities; (2) we introduce an uncertainty-fusion module that encodes these parameters and injects them into object/map queries to form uncertainty-aware queries; and (3) we design an uncertainty-aware gate that adaptively modulates reliance on historical inputs (ego status or temporal perception queries) based on current uncertainty levels. The design adds minimal overhead and drops throughput by only sim0.5 FPS while remaining plug-and-play for common E2E backbones. On nuScenes (open-loop), UniUncer reduces average L2 trajectory error by 7\%. On NavsimV2 (pseudo closed-loop), it improves overall EPDMS by 10.8\% and notable stage two gains in challenging, interaction-heavy scenes. Ablations confirm that dynamic-agent uncertainty and the uncertainty-aware gate are both necessary.

In recent years, the neural implicit surface has emerged as a powerful representation for multi-view surface reconstruction due to its simplicity and state-of-the-art performance. However, reconstructing smooth and detailed surfaces in indoor scenes from multi-view images presents unique challenges. Indoor scenes typically contain large texture-less regions, making the photometric loss unreliable for optimizing the implicit surface. Previous work utilizes monocular geometry priors to improve the reconstruction in indoor scenes. However, monocular priors often contain substantial errors in thin structure regions due to domain gaps and the inherent inconsistencies when derived independently from different views. This paper presents DebSDF to address these challenges, focusing on the utilization of uncertainty in monocular priors and the bias in SDF-based volume rendering. We propose an uncertainty modeling technique that associates larger uncertainties with larger errors in the monocular priors. High-uncertainty priors are then excluded from optimization to prevent bias. This uncertainty measure also informs an importance-guided ray sampling and adaptive smoothness regularization, enhancing the learning of fine structures. We further introduce a bias-aware signed distance function to density transformation that takes into account the curvature and the angle between the view direction and the SDF normals to reconstruct fine details better. Our approach has been validated through extensive experiments on several challenging datasets, demonstrating improved qualitative and quantitative results in reconstructing thin structures in indoor scenes, thereby outperforming previous work.

There are two major types of uncertainty one can model. Aleatoric uncertainty captures noise inherent in the observations. On the other hand, epistemic uncertainty accounts for uncertainty in the model -- uncertainty which can be explained away given enough data. Traditionally it has been difficult to model epistemic uncertainty in computer vision, but with new Bayesian deep learning tools this is now possible. We study the benefits of modeling epistemic vs. aleatoric uncertainty in Bayesian deep learning models for vision tasks. For this we present a Bayesian deep learning framework combining input-dependent aleatoric uncertainty together with epistemic uncertainty. We study models under the framework with per-pixel semantic segmentation and depth regression tasks. Further, our explicit uncertainty formulation leads to new loss functions for these tasks, which can be interpreted as learned attenuation. This makes the loss more robust to noisy data, also giving new state-of-the-art results on segmentation and depth regression benchmarks.

A correctly reconstructed distant point appears uncertain even when a frozen 3D model processes equivalent inputs because its output frame rotates fractionally. This exposes a weakness of trainingfree perturbation uncertainty: when outputs contain an unobserved symmetry, run-to-run variation potentially reflects symmetry rather than error. Existing alternatives have trade-offs: built-in confidence is outperformed in most evaluated conditions, while trained evidential heads require modelspecific supervision. For point maps, this research derives a closed-form, error-independent variance term that grows with scene extent and potentially overwhelms the desired signal. Simulation reproduces the effect; all 30 real VGGT view-sets tested exhibit its predicted |x_p|^2 signature. ReVar3R robustly registers predictions to a common similarity frame before computing per-point variance, without retraining or modifying the frozen model. Optional calibration and fusion use a held-out split. Across VGGT, π3, and MASt3R on six datasets, the same estimator on every backbone lowers AUSE below built-in confidence in 15 of 18 conditions. The staged evaluation yields 11 of 18 wins for the label-free core, 12/18 for label-free equal-weight fusion, 14/18 with held-out weights, and 15/18 when the built-in signal is included. Against a trained evidential head, the result is a trade-off: the head calibrates magnitude better and leads in its training domain, whereas ReVar3R transfers across backbones without adaptation. Its ranking improves point filtering, but it does not detect stable systematic bias, aid novel-view synthesis, or transfer calibration across domains.

Although Neural Radiance Fields (NeRFs) have markedly improved novel view synthesis, accurate uncertainty quantification in their image predictions remains an open problem. The prevailing methods for estimating uncertainty, including the state-of-the-art Density-aware NeRF Ensembles (DANE) [29], quantify uncertainty without calibration. This frequently leads to over- or under-confidence in image predictions, which can undermine their real-world applications. In this paper, we propose a method which, for the first time, achieves calibrated uncertainties for NeRFs. To accomplish this, we overcome a significant challenge in adapting existing calibration techniques to NeRFs: a need to hold out ground truth images from the target scene, reducing the number of images left to train the NeRF. This issue is particularly problematic in sparse-view settings, where we can operate with as few as three images. To address this, we introduce the concept of a meta-calibrator that performs uncertainty calibration for NeRFs with a single forward pass without the need for holding out any images from the target scene. Our meta-calibrator is a neural network that takes as input the NeRF images and uncalibrated uncertainty maps and outputs a scene-specific calibration curve that corrects the NeRF's uncalibrated uncertainties. We show that the meta-calibrator can generalize on unseen scenes and achieves well-calibrated and state-of-the-art uncertainty for NeRFs, significantly beating DANE and other approaches. This opens opportunities to improve applications that rely on accurate NeRF uncertainty estimates such as next-best view planning and potentially more trustworthy image reconstruction for medical diagnosis. The code is available at https://niki-amini-naieni.github.io/instantcalibration.github.io/.

Human motion forecasters are increasingly accurate and fast, but reliable deployment requires uncertainty estimates that are structured, calibrated, and efficient. Bayesian and ensemble-based uncertainty estimates often require repeated stochastic inference [15, 26], while conformal calibration alone does not provide an epistemic signal or preserve trajectory covariance structure [14, 50]. We introduce SPARC (Single-Pass Adaptive Risk Calibration), a Bayesian-conformal uncertainty layer for motion forecasting. A deterministic MLP backbone predicts the future mean, and a conjugate Bayesian last layer converts time-domain feature leverage into an analytic horizon-wise epistemic scale κ_t(x). This scale inflates a graph-temporal Gaussian covariance without changing its correlation structure, and split conformal calibration produces 95% marginal prediction tubes with finite-sample validity under exchangeability. The key interface is the structured factorization κ_t(x)Σ_{str,t}(x), which injects feature-space epistemic uncertainty into trajectory densities without Monte Carlo sampling. Across nine dataset-protocol blocks and deterministic, multimodal, and calibration baselines, SPARC ranks first on NLL and on the combined MPJPE+NLL criterion while retaining competitive point accuracy and efficient calibrated tubes. Ranking windows by κ separates high-error cases, making the scale usable as a lightweight risk monitor.

Although weakly-supervised techniques can reduce the labeling effort, it is unclear whether a saliency model trained with weakly-supervised data (e.g., point annotation) can achieve the equivalent performance of its fully-supervised version. This paper attempts to answer this unexplored question by proving a hypothesis: there is a point-labeled dataset where saliency models trained on it can achieve equivalent performance when trained on the densely annotated dataset. To prove this conjecture, we proposed a novel yet effective adversarial trajectory-ensemble active learning (ATAL). Our contributions are three-fold: 1) Our proposed adversarial attack triggering uncertainty can conquer the overconfidence of existing active learning methods and accurately locate these uncertain pixels. {2)} Our proposed trajectory-ensemble uncertainty estimation method maintains the advantages of the ensemble networks while significantly reducing the computational cost. {3)} Our proposed relationship-aware diversity sampling algorithm can conquer oversampling while boosting performance. Experimental results show that our ATAL can find such a point-labeled dataset, where a saliency model trained on it obtained 97% -- 99% performance of its fully-supervised version with only ten annotated points per image.

Accurate localization using visual information is a critical yet challenging task, especially in urban environments where nearby buildings and construction sites significantly degrade GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) signal quality. This issue underscores the importance of visual localization techniques in scenarios where GNSS signals are unreliable. This paper proposes U-ViLAR, a novel uncertainty-aware visual localization framework designed to address these challenges while enabling adaptive localization using high-definition (HD) maps or navigation maps. Specifically, our method first extracts features from the input visual data and maps them into Bird's-Eye-View (BEV) space to enhance spatial consistency with the map input. Subsequently, we introduce: a) Perceptual Uncertainty-guided Association, which mitigates errors caused by perception uncertainty, and b) Localization Uncertainty-guided Registration, which reduces errors introduced by localization uncertainty. By effectively balancing the coarse-grained large-scale localization capability of association with the fine-grained precise localization capability of registration, our approach achieves robust and accurate localization. Experimental results demonstrate that our method achieves state-of-the-art performance across multiple localization tasks. Furthermore, our model has undergone rigorous testing on large-scale autonomous driving fleets and has demonstrated stable performance in various challenging urban scenarios.

Camera pose estimation is a key step in standard 3D reconstruction pipelines that operate on a dense set of images of a single object or scene. However, methods for pose estimation often fail when only a few images are available because they rely on the ability to robustly identify and match visual features between image pairs. While these methods can work robustly with dense camera views, capturing a large set of images can be time-consuming or impractical. We propose SparsePose for recovering accurate camera poses given a sparse set of wide-baseline images (fewer than 10). The method learns to regress initial camera poses and then iteratively refine them after training on a large-scale dataset of objects (Co3D: Common Objects in 3D). SparsePose significantly outperforms conventional and learning-based baselines in recovering accurate camera rotations and translations. We also demonstrate our pipeline for high-fidelity 3D reconstruction using only 5-9 images of an object.

Accurate sensor calibration is crucial for autonomous systems, yet its uncertainty quantification remains underexplored. We present the first approach to integrate uncertainty awareness into online extrinsic calibration, combining Monte Carlo Dropout with Conformal Prediction to generate prediction intervals with a guaranteed level of coverage. Our method proposes a framework to enhance existing calibration models with uncertainty quantification, compatible with various network architectures. Validated on KITTI (RGB Camera-LiDAR) and DSEC (Event Camera-LiDAR) datasets, we demonstrate effectiveness across different visual sensor types, measuring performance with adapted metrics to evaluate the efficiency and reliability of the intervals. By providing calibration parameters with quantifiable confidence measures, we offer insights into the reliability of calibration estimates, which can greatly improve the robustness of sensor fusion in dynamic environments and usefully serve the Computer Vision community.

Deep Learning-based image super-resolution (SR) has been gaining traction with the aid of Generative Adversarial Networks. Models like SRGAN and ESRGAN are constantly ranked between the best image SR tools. However, they lack principled ways for estimating predictive uncertainty. In the present work, we enhance these models using Monte Carlo-Dropout and Deep Ensemble, allowing the computation of predictive uncertainty. When coupled with a prediction, uncertainty estimates can provide more information to the model users, highlighting pixels where the SR output might be uncertain, hence potentially inaccurate, if these estimates were to be reliable. Our findings suggest that these uncertainty estimates are decently calibrated and can hence fulfill this goal, while providing no performance drop with respect to the corresponding models without uncertainty estimation.

Although AI systems have been applied in various fields and achieved impressive performance, their safety and reliability are still a big concern. This is especially important for safety-critical tasks. One shared characteristic of these critical tasks is their risk sensitivity, where small mistakes can cause big consequences and even endanger life. There are several factors that could be guidelines for the successful deployment of AI systems in sensitive tasks: (i) failure detection and out-of-distribution (OOD) detection; (ii) overfitting identification; (iii) uncertainty quantification for predictions; (iv) robustness to data perturbations. These factors are also challenges of current AI systems, which are major blocks for building safe and reliable AI. Specifically, the current AI algorithms are unable to identify common causes for failure detection. Furthermore, additional techniques are required to quantify the quality of predictions. All these contribute to inaccurate uncertainty quantification, which lowers trust in predictions. Hence obtaining accurate model uncertainty quantification and its further improvement are challenging. To address these issues, many techniques have been proposed, such as regularization methods and learning strategies. As vision and language are the most typical data type and have many open source benchmark datasets, this thesis will focus on vision-language data processing for tasks like classification, image captioning, and vision question answering. In this thesis, we aim to build a safeguard by further developing current techniques to ensure the accurate model uncertainty for safety-critical tasks.

The ability to acknowledge the inevitable uncertainty in their knowledge and reasoning is a prerequisite for AI systems to be truly truthful and reliable. In this paper, we present a taxonomy of uncertainty specific to vision-language AI systems, distinguishing between epistemic uncertainty (arising from a lack of information) and aleatoric uncertainty (due to inherent unpredictability), and further explore finer categories within. Based on this taxonomy, we synthesize a benchmark dataset, CertainlyUncertain, featuring 178K visual question answering (VQA) samples as contrastive pairs. This is achieved by 1) inpainting images to make previously answerable questions into unanswerable ones; and 2) using image captions to prompt large language models for both answerable and unanswerable questions. Additionally, we introduce a new metric confidence-weighted accuracy, that is well correlated with both accuracy and calibration error, to address the shortcomings of existing metrics.

Uncertainty estimation is an essential and heavily-studied component for the reliable application of semantic segmentation methods. While various studies exist claiming methodological advances on the one hand, and successful application on the other hand, the field is currently hampered by a gap between theory and practice leaving fundamental questions unanswered: Can data-related and model-related uncertainty really be separated in practice? Which components of an uncertainty method are essential for real-world performance? Which uncertainty method works well for which application? In this work, we link this research gap to a lack of systematic and comprehensive evaluation of uncertainty methods. Specifically, we identify three key pitfalls in current literature and present an evaluation framework that bridges the research gap by providing 1) a controlled environment for studying data ambiguities as well as distribution shifts, 2) systematic ablations of relevant method components, and 3) test-beds for the five predominant uncertainty applications: OoD-detection, active learning, failure detection, calibration, and ambiguity modeling. Empirical results on simulated as well as real-world data demonstrate how the proposed framework is able to answer the predominant questions in the field revealing for instance that 1) separation of uncertainty types works on simulated data but does not necessarily translate to real-world data, 2) aggregation of scores is a crucial but currently neglected component of uncertainty methods, 3) While ensembles are performing most robustly across the different downstream tasks and settings, test-time augmentation often constitutes a light-weight alternative. Code is at: https://github.com/IML-DKFZ/values

High-quality calibrated uncertainty estimates are crucial for numerous real-world applications, especially for deep learning-based deployed ML systems. While Bayesian deep learning techniques allow uncertainty estimation, training them with large-scale datasets is an expensive process that does not always yield models competitive with non-Bayesian counterparts. Moreover, many of the high-performing deep learning models that are already trained and deployed are non-Bayesian in nature and do not provide uncertainty estimates. To address these issues, we propose BayesCap that learns a Bayesian identity mapping for the frozen model, allowing uncertainty estimation. BayesCap is a memory-efficient method that can be trained on a small fraction of the original dataset, enhancing pretrained non-Bayesian computer vision models by providing calibrated uncertainty estimates for the predictions without (i) hampering the performance of the model and (ii) the need for expensive retraining the model from scratch. The proposed method is agnostic to various architectures and tasks. We show the efficacy of our method on a wide variety of tasks with a diverse set of architectures, including image super-resolution, deblurring, inpainting, and crucial application such as medical image translation. Moreover, we apply the derived uncertainty estimates to detect out-of-distribution samples in critical scenarios like depth estimation in autonomous driving. Code is available at https://github.com/ExplainableML/BayesCap.

We address the problem of regressing 3D human pose and shape from a single image, with a focus on 3D accuracy. The current best methods leverage large datasets of 3D pseudo-ground-truth (p-GT) and 2D keypoints, leading to robust performance. With such methods, we observe a paradoxical decline in 3D pose accuracy with increasing 2D accuracy. This is caused by biases in the p-GT and the use of an approximate camera projection model. We quantify the error induced by current camera models and show that fitting 2D keypoints and p-GT accurately causes incorrect 3D poses. Our analysis defines the invalid distances within which minimizing 2D and p-GT losses is detrimental. We use this to formulate a new loss Threshold-Adaptive Loss Scaling (TALS) that penalizes gross 2D and p-GT losses but not smaller ones. With such a loss, there are many 3D poses that could equally explain the 2D evidence. To reduce this ambiguity we need a prior over valid human poses but such priors can introduce unwanted bias. To address this, we exploit a tokenized representation of human pose and reformulate the problem as token prediction. This restricts the estimated poses to the space of valid poses, effectively providing a uniform prior. Extensive experiments on the EMDB and 3DPW datasets show that our reformulated keypoint loss and tokenization allows us to train on in-the-wild data while improving 3D accuracy over the state-of-the-art. Our models and code are available for research at https://tokenhmr.is.tue.mpg.de.

Representation learning has significantly driven the field to develop pretrained models that can act as a valuable starting point when transferring to new datasets. With the rising demand for reliable machine learning and uncertainty quantification, there is a need for pretrained models that not only provide embeddings but also transferable uncertainty estimates. To guide the development of such models, we propose the Uncertainty-aware Representation Learning (URL) benchmark. Besides the transferability of the representations, it also measures the zero-shot transferability of the uncertainty estimate using a novel metric. We apply URL to evaluate eleven uncertainty quantifiers that are pretrained on ImageNet and transferred to eight downstream datasets. We find that approaches that focus on the uncertainty of the representation itself or estimate the prediction risk directly outperform those that are based on the probabilities of upstream classes. Yet, achieving transferable uncertainty quantification remains an open challenge. Our findings indicate that it is not necessarily in conflict with traditional representation learning goals. Code is provided under https://github.com/mkirchhof/url .

Neural Radiance Fields (NeRF) exhibit remarkable performance for Novel View Synthesis (NVS) given a set of 2D images. However, NeRF training requires accurate camera pose for each input view, typically obtained by Structure-from-Motion (SfM) pipelines. Recent works have attempted to relax this constraint, but they still often rely on decent initial poses which they can refine. Here we aim at removing the requirement for pose initialization. We present Incremental CONfidence (ICON), an optimization procedure for training NeRFs from 2D video frames. ICON only assumes smooth camera motion to estimate initial guess for poses. Further, ICON introduces ``confidence": an adaptive measure of model quality used to dynamically reweight gradients. ICON relies on high-confidence poses to learn NeRF, and high-confidence 3D structure (as encoded by NeRF) to learn poses. We show that ICON, without prior pose initialization, achieves superior performance in both CO3D and HO3D versus methods which use SfM pose.

Prior methods that tackle the problem of generalizable object pose estimation highly rely on having dense views of the unseen object. By contrast, we address the scenario where only a single reference view of the object is available. Our goal then is to estimate the relative object pose between this reference view and a query image that depicts the object in a different pose. In this scenario, robust generalization is imperative due to the presence of unseen objects during testing and the large-scale object pose variation between the reference and the query. To this end, we present a new hypothesis-and-verification framework, in which we generate and evaluate multiple pose hypotheses, ultimately selecting the most reliable one as the relative object pose. To measure reliability, we introduce a 3D-aware verification that explicitly applies 3D transformations to the 3D object representations learned from the two input images. Our comprehensive experiments on the Objaverse, LINEMOD, and CO3D datasets evidence the superior accuracy of our approach in relative pose estimation and its robustness in large-scale pose variations, when dealing with unseen objects.

Recovering camera poses from a set of images is a foundational task in 3D computer vision, which powers key applications such as 3D scene/object reconstructions. Classic methods often depend on feature correspondence, such as keypoints, which require the input images to have large overlap and small viewpoint changes. Such requirements present considerable challenges in scenarios with sparse views. Recent data-driven approaches aim to directly output camera poses, either through regressing the 6DoF camera poses or formulating rotation as a probability distribution. However, each approach has its limitations. On one hand, directly regressing the camera poses can be ill-posed, since it assumes a single mode, which is not true under symmetry and leads to sub-optimal solutions. On the other hand, probabilistic approaches are capable of modeling the symmetry ambiguity, yet they sample the entire space of rotation uniformly by brute-force. This leads to an inevitable trade-off between high sample density, which improves model precision, and sample efficiency that determines the runtime. In this paper, we propose ADen to unify the two frameworks by employing a generator and a discriminator: the generator is trained to output multiple hypotheses of 6DoF camera pose to represent a distribution and handle multi-mode ambiguity, and the discriminator is trained to identify the hypothesis that best explains the data. This allows ADen to combine the best of both worlds, achieving substantially higher precision as well as lower runtime than previous methods in empirical evaluations.

Uncertainty estimation is essential for the safe clinical deployment of medical image segmentation systems, enabling the identification of unreliable predictions and supporting human oversight. While prior work has largely focused on pixel-level uncertainty, landmark-based segmentation offers inherent topological guarantees yet remains underexplored from an uncertainty perspective. In this work, we study uncertainty estimation for anatomical landmark-based segmentation on chest X-rays. Inspired by hybrid neural network architectures that combine standard image convolutional encoders with graph-based generative decoders, and leveraging their variational latent space, we derive two complementary measures: (i) latent uncertainty, captured directly from the learned distribution parameters, and (ii) predictive uncertainty, obtained by generating multiple stochastic output predictions from latent samples. Through controlled corruption experiments we show that both uncertainty measures increase with perturbation severity, reflecting both global and local degradation. We demonstrate that these uncertainty signals can identify unreliable predictions by comparing with manual ground-truth, and support out-of-distribution detection on the CheXmask dataset. More importantly, we release CheXmask-U (huggingface.co/datasets/mcosarinsky/CheXmask-U), a large scale dataset of 657,566 chest X-ray landmark segmentations with per-node uncertainty estimates, enabling researchers to account for spatial variations in segmentation quality when using these anatomical masks. Our findings establish uncertainty estimation as a promising direction to enhance robustness and safe deployment of landmark-based anatomical segmentation methods in chest X-ray. A fully working interactive demo of the method is available at huggingface.co/spaces/matiasky/CheXmask-U and the source code at github.com/mcosarinsky/CheXmask-U.

Are camera poses necessary for multi-view 3D modeling? Existing approaches predominantly assume access to accurate camera poses. While this assumption might hold for dense views, accurately estimating camera poses for sparse views is often elusive. Our analysis reveals that noisy estimated poses lead to degraded performance for existing sparse-view 3D modeling methods. To address this issue, we present LEAP, a novel pose-free approach, therefore challenging the prevailing notion that camera poses are indispensable. LEAP discards pose-based operations and learns geometric knowledge from data. LEAP is equipped with a neural volume, which is shared across scenes and is parameterized to encode geometry and texture priors. For each incoming scene, we update the neural volume by aggregating 2D image features in a feature-similarity-driven manner. The updated neural volume is decoded into the radiance field, enabling novel view synthesis from any viewpoint. On both object-centric and scene-level datasets, we show that LEAP significantly outperforms prior methods when they employ predicted poses from state-of-the-art pose estimators. Notably, LEAP performs on par with prior approaches that use ground-truth poses while running 400times faster than PixelNeRF. We show LEAP generalizes to novel object categories and scenes, and learns knowledge closely resembles epipolar geometry. Project page: https://hwjiang1510.github.io/LEAP/

Multimodal semantic understanding often has to deal with uncertainty, which means the obtained messages tend to refer to multiple targets. Such uncertainty is problematic for our interpretation, including inter- and intra-modal uncertainty. Little effort has studied the modeling of this uncertainty, particularly in pre-training on unlabeled datasets and fine-tuning in task-specific downstream datasets. In this paper, we project the representations of all modalities as probabilistic distributions via a Probability Distribution Encoder (PDE) by utilizing sequence-level interactions. Compared to the existing deterministic methods, such uncertainty modeling can convey richer multimodal semantic information and more complex relationships. Furthermore, we integrate uncertainty modeling with popular pre-training frameworks and propose suitable pre-training tasks: Distribution-based Vision-Language Contrastive learning (D-VLC), Distribution-based Masked Language Modeling (D-MLM), and Distribution-based Image-Text Matching (D-ITM). The fine-tuned models are applied to challenging downstream tasks, including image-text retrieval, visual question answering, visual reasoning, and visual entailment, and achieve state-of-the-art results.

We present a robust, real-time RGB SLAM system that handles dynamic environments by leveraging differentiable Uncertainty-aware Bundle Adjustment. Traditional SLAM methods typically assume static scenes, leading to tracking failures in the presence of motion. Recent dynamic SLAM approaches attempt to address this challenge using predefined dynamic priors or uncertainty-aware mapping, but they remain limited when confronted with unknown dynamic objects or highly cluttered scenes where geometric mapping becomes unreliable. In contrast, our method estimates per-pixel uncertainty by exploiting multi-view visual feature inconsistency, enabling robust tracking and reconstruction even in real-world environments. The proposed system achieves state-of-the-art camera poses and scene geometry in cluttered dynamic scenarios while running in real time at around 10 FPS. Code and datasets are available at https://github.com/MoyangLi00/DROID-W.git.

We present an approach for estimating the pose of an external camera with respect to a robot using a single RGB image of the robot. The image is processed by a deep neural network to detect 2D projections of keypoints (such as joints) associated with the robot. The network is trained entirely on simulated data using domain randomization to bridge the reality gap. Perspective-n-point (PnP) is then used to recover the camera extrinsics, assuming that the camera intrinsics and joint configuration of the robot manipulator are known. Unlike classic hand-eye calibration systems, our method does not require an off-line calibration step. Rather, it is capable of computing the camera extrinsics from a single frame, thus opening the possibility of on-line calibration. We show experimental results for three different robots and camera sensors, demonstrating that our approach is able to achieve accuracy with a single frame that is comparable to that of classic off-line hand-eye calibration using multiple frames. With additional frames from a static pose, accuracy improves even further. Code, datasets, and pretrained models for three widely-used robot manipulators are made available.

Contrastively trained encoders have recently been proven to invert the data-generating process: they encode each input, e.g., an image, into the true latent vector that generated the image (Zimmermann et al., 2021). However, real-world observations often have inherent ambiguities. For instance, images may be blurred or only show a 2D view of a 3D object, so multiple latents could have generated them. This makes the true posterior for the latent vector probabilistic with heteroscedastic uncertainty. In this setup, we extend the common InfoNCE objective and encoders to predict latent distributions instead of points. We prove that these distributions recover the correct posteriors of the data-generating process, including its level of aleatoric uncertainty, up to a rotation of the latent space. In addition to providing calibrated uncertainty estimates, these posteriors allow the computation of credible intervals in image retrieval. They comprise images with the same latent as a given query, subject to its uncertainty. Code is available at https://github.com/mkirchhof/Probabilistic_Contrastive_Learning

Calibrated uncertainty estimates in machine learning are crucial to many fields such as autonomous vehicles, medicine, and weather and climate forecasting. While there is extensive literature on uncertainty calibration for classification, the classification findings do not always translate to regression. As a result, modern models for predicting uncertainty in regression settings typically produce uncalibrated and overconfident estimates. To address these gaps, we present a calibration method for regression settings that does not assume a particular uncertainty distribution over the error: Calibrating Regression Uncertainty Distributions Empirically (CRUDE). CRUDE makes the weaker assumption that error distributions have a constant arbitrary shape across the output space, shifted by predicted mean and scaled by predicted standard deviation. We detail a theoretical connection between CRUDE and conformal inference. Across an extensive set of regression tasks, CRUDE demonstrates consistently sharper, better calibrated, and more accurate uncertainty estimates than state-of-the-art techniques.

3D Visual Question Answering (3D VQA) is crucial for enabling models to perceive the physical world and perform spatial reasoning. In 3D VQA, the free-form nature of answers often leads to improper annotations that can confuse or mislead models when training on the entire dataset. While other text generation tasks can mitigate this issue by learning on large-scale datasets, the scarcity of 3D scene data enlarges the negative effect of misleading annotations. Although active learning strategies can select valuable instances for training, they fail to identify and resolve misleading labels, which the oracle inevitably provides in practice. To address this issue, we propose a multi-turn interactive active learning strategy. This strategy selects data based on models' semantic uncertainty to form a solid knowledge foundation more effectively and actively requests reannotation from an oracle to resolve potentially misleading labels. For uncertainty assessment, we utilize a variance-based metric that takes semantic relationships between terms into consideration, thus avoiding the uniform inter-class similarity assumption of previous assessment metrics. Extensive experiments exhibit better model performance and a substantial reduction in training costs, with a halving of training costs for achieving relatively high accuracy. The code is available at https://github.com/fz-zsl/AQuA.

In real-world scenarios, typical visual recognition systems could fail under two major causes, i.e., the misclassification between known classes and the excusable misbehavior on unknown-class images. To tackle these deficiencies, flexible visual recognition should dynamically predict multiple classes when they are unconfident between choices and reject making predictions when the input is entirely out of the training distribution. Two challenges emerge along with this novel task. First, prediction uncertainty should be separately quantified as confusion depicting inter-class uncertainties and ignorance identifying out-of-distribution samples. Second, both confusion and ignorance should be comparable between samples to enable effective decision-making. In this paper, we propose to model these two sources of uncertainty explicitly with the theory of Subjective Logic. Regarding recognition as an evidence-collecting process, confusion is then defined as conflicting evidence, while ignorance is the absence of evidence. By predicting Dirichlet concentration parameters for singletons, comprehensive subjective opinions, including confusion and ignorance, could be achieved via further evidence combinations. Through a series of experiments on synthetic data analysis, visual recognition, and open-set detection, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our methods in quantifying two sources of uncertainties and dealing with flexible recognition.

In this paper, we tackle the problem of active robotic 3D reconstruction of an object. In particular, we study how a mobile robot with an arm-held camera can select a favorable number of views to recover an object's 3D shape efficiently. Contrary to the existing solution to this problem, we leverage the popular neural radiance fields-based object representation, which has recently shown impressive results for various computer vision tasks. However, it is not straightforward to directly reason about an object's explicit 3D geometric details using such a representation, making the next-best-view selection problem for dense 3D reconstruction challenging. This paper introduces a ray-based volumetric uncertainty estimator, which computes the entropy of the weight distribution of the color samples along each ray of the object's implicit neural representation. We show that it is possible to infer the uncertainty of the underlying 3D geometry given a novel view with the proposed estimator. We then present a next-best-view selection policy guided by the ray-based volumetric uncertainty in neural radiance fields-based representations. Encouraging experimental results on synthetic and real-world data suggest that the approach presented in this paper can enable a new research direction of using an implicit 3D object representation for the next-best-view problem in robot vision applications, distinguishing our approach from the existing approaches that rely on explicit 3D geometric modeling.

Recent advances in 3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS) have achieved state-of-the-art results for novel view synthesis. However, efficiently capturing high-fidelity reconstructions of specific objects within complex scenes remains a significant challenge. A key limitation of existing active reconstruction methods is their reliance on scene-level uncertainty metrics, which are often biased by irrelevant background clutter and lead to inefficient view selection for object-centric tasks. We present OUGS, a novel framework that addresses this challenge with a more principled, physically-grounded uncertainty formulation for 3DGS. Our core innovation is to derive uncertainty directly from the explicit physical parameters of the 3D Gaussian primitives (e.g., position, scale, rotation). By propagating the covariance of these parameters through the rendering Jacobian, we establish a highly interpretable uncertainty model. This foundation allows us to then seamlessly integrate semantic segmentation masks to produce a targeted, object-aware uncertainty score that effectively disentangles the object from its environment. This allows for a more effective active view selection strategy that prioritizes views critical to improving object fidelity. Experimental evaluations on public datasets demonstrate that our approach significantly improves the efficiency of the 3DGS reconstruction process and achieves higher quality for targeted objects compared to existing state-of-the-art methods, while also serving as a robust uncertainty estimator for the global scene.

Predicting mortality-related outcomes from images offers the prospect of accessible, noninvasive, and scalable health screening. We present a method that leverages pretrained vision transformer foundation models to estimate remaining lifespan from facial and whole-body images, alongside robust uncertainty quantification. We show that predictive uncertainty varies systematically with the true remaining lifespan, and that this uncertainty can be effectively modeled by learning a Gaussian distribution for each sample. Our approach achieves state-of-the-art mean absolute error (MAE) of 7.48 years on an established Dataset, and further improves to 4.79 and 5.07 years MAE on two new, higher-quality datasets curated and published in this work. Importantly, our models provide well-calibrated uncertainty estimates, as demonstrated by a bucketed expected calibration error of 0.62 years. While not intended for clinical deployment, these results highlight the potential of extracting medically relevant signals from images. We make all code and datasets available to facilitate further research.

For physical human-robot interactions (pHRI), a robot needs to estimate the accurate body pose of a target person. However, in these pHRI scenarios, the robot cannot fully observe the target person's body with equipped cameras because the target person must be close to the robot for physical interaction. This close distance leads to severe truncation and occlusions and thus results in poor accuracy of human pose estimation. For better accuracy in this challenging environment, we propose an active measurement and sensor fusion framework of the equipped cameras with touch and ranging sensors such as 2D LiDAR. Touch and ranging sensor measurements are sparse but reliable and informative cues for localizing human body parts. In our active measurement process, camera viewpoints and sensor placements are dynamically optimized to measure body parts with higher estimation uncertainty, which is closely related to truncation or occlusion. In our sensor fusion process, assuming that the measurements of touch and ranging sensors are more reliable than the camera-based estimations, we fuse the sensor measurements to the camera-based estimated pose by aligning the estimated pose towards the measured points. Our proposed method outperformed previous methods on the standard occlusion benchmark with simulated active measurement. Furthermore, our method reliably estimated human poses using a real robot, even with practical constraints such as occlusion by blankets.

Recent advances in generative video models have led to significant breakthroughs in high-fidelity video synthesis, specifically in controllable video generation where the generated video is conditioned on text and action inputs, e.g., in instruction-guided video editing and world modeling in robotics. Despite these exceptional capabilities, controllable video models often hallucinate - generating future video frames that are misaligned with physical reality - which raises serious concerns in many tasks such as robot policy evaluation and planning. However, state-of-the-art video models lack the ability to assess and express their confidence, impeding hallucination mitigation. To rigorously address this challenge, we propose C3, an uncertainty quantification (UQ) method for training continuous-scale calibrated controllable video models for dense confidence estimation at the subpatch level, precisely localizing the uncertainty in each generated video frame. Our UQ method introduces three core innovations to empower video models to estimate their uncertainty. First, our method develops a novel framework that trains video models for correctness and calibration via strictly proper scoring rules. Second, we estimate the video model's uncertainty in latent space, avoiding training instability and prohibitive training costs associated with pixel-space approaches. Third, we map the dense latent-space uncertainty to interpretable pixel-level uncertainty in the RGB space for intuitive visualization, providing high-resolution uncertainty heatmaps that identify untrustworthy regions. Through extensive experiments on large-scale robot learning datasets (Bridge and DROID) and real-world evaluations, we demonstrate that our method not only provides calibrated uncertainty estimates within the training distribution, but also enables effective out-of-distribution detection.

Predicting how a scene may evolve from partial observations requires reasoning about multiple possible futures rather than committing to a single trajectory. Existing approaches either generate appearance-dominated video predictions or sample a small number of trajectories without explicitly modeling the distribution of possible motion. We introduce Goal-Aware Representations of Future kInEmatic Latent Distributions (GARFIELD), a probabilistic model of scene kinematics that learns a structured spatio-temporal latent representation of the distribution over possible futures given an image and optional spatio-temporally sparse constraints. The same latent representation enables both joint sampling of all trajectories and direct access to the underlying motion distribution through an efficient deterministic density decoder. As a result, uncertainty about future motion can be localized to specific scene elements and timesteps and progressively refined through additional constraints. Experiments demonstrate strong motion planning performance competitive with large video generation models while sampling trajectories 97times faster. Our method further estimates motion densities two orders of magnitude faster than Monte-Carlo sampling from motion generation models, enabling interactive exploration and uncertainty-aware planning.

Identifying how much a model {p}_{theta}(Y|X) knows about the stochastic real-world process p(Y|X) it was trained on is important to ensure it avoids producing incorrect or "hallucinated" answers or taking unsafe actions. But this is difficult for generative models because probabilistic predictions do not distinguish between per-response noise (aleatoric uncertainty) and lack of knowledge about the process (epistemic uncertainty), and existing epistemic uncertainty quantification techniques tend to be overconfident when the model underfits. We propose a general strategy for teaching a model to both approximate p(Y|X) and also estimate the remaining gaps between {p}_{theta}(Y|X) and p(Y|X): train it to predict pairs of independent responses drawn from the true conditional distribution, allow it to "cheat" by observing one response while predicting the other, then measure how much it cheats. Remarkably, we prove that being good at cheating (i.e. cheating whenever it improves your prediction) is equivalent to being second-order calibrated, a principled extension of ordinary calibration that allows us to construct provably-correct frequentist confidence intervals for p(Y|X) and detect incorrect responses with high probability. We demonstrate empirically that our approach accurately estimates how much models don't know across ambiguous image classification, (synthetic) language modeling, and partially-observable navigation tasks, outperforming existing techniques.

Transformer-based trackers have achieved promising success and become the dominant tracking paradigm due to their accuracy and efficiency. Despite the substantial progress, most of the existing approaches tackle object tracking as a deterministic coordinate regression problem, while the target localization uncertainty has been greatly overlooked, which hampers trackers' ability to maintain reliable target state prediction in challenging scenarios. To address this issue, we propose UncTrack, a novel uncertainty-aware transformer tracker that predicts the target localization uncertainty and incorporates this uncertainty information for accurate target state inference. Specifically, UncTrack utilizes a transformer encoder to perform feature interaction between template and search images. The output features are passed into an uncertainty-aware localization decoder (ULD) to coarsely predict the corner-based localization and the corresponding localization uncertainty. Then the localization uncertainty is sent into a prototype memory network (PMN) to excavate valuable historical information to identify whether the target state prediction is reliable or not. To enhance the template representation, the samples with high confidence are fed back into the prototype memory bank for memory updating, making the tracker more robust to challenging appearance variations. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method outperforms other state-of-the-art methods. Our code is available at https://github.com/ManOfStory/UncTrack.

Combining 3D Gaussian splatting with Simultaneous Localization and Mapping (SLAM) has gained popularity as it enables continuous 3D environment reconstruction during motion. However, existing methods struggle in dynamic environments, particularly moving objects complicate 3D reconstruction and, in turn, hinder reliable tracking. The emergence of 4D reconstruction, especially 4D Gaussian splatting, offers a promising direction for addressing these challenges, yet its potential for 4D-aware SLAM remains largely underexplored. Along this direction, we propose a robust and efficient framework, namely Reweighting Uncertainty in Gaussian Splatting SLAM (RU4D-SLAM) for 4D scene reconstruction, that introduces temporal factors into spatial 3D representation while incorporating uncertainty-aware perception of scene changes, blurred image synthesis, and dynamic scene reconstruction. We enhance dynamic scene representation by integrating motion blur rendering, and improve uncertainty-aware tracking by extending per-pixel uncertainty modeling, which is originally designed for static scenarios, to handle blurred images. Furthermore, we propose a semantic-guided reweighting mechanism for per-pixel uncertainty estimation in dynamic scenes, and introduce a learnable opacity weight to support adaptive 4D mapping. Extensive experiments on standard benchmarks demonstrate that our method substantially outperforms state-of-the-art approaches in both trajectory accuracy and 4D scene reconstruction, particularly in dynamic environments with moving objects and low-quality inputs. Code available: https://ru4d-slam.github.io

Most mobile robots for indoor use rely on 2D laser scanners for localization, mapping and navigation. These sensors, however, cannot detect transparent surfaces or measure the full occupancy of complex objects such as tables. Deep Neural Networks have recently been proposed to overcome this limitation by learning to estimate object occupancy. These estimates are nevertheless subject to uncertainty, making the evaluation of their confidence an important issue for these measures to be useful for autonomous navigation and mapping. In this work we approach the problem from two sides. First we discuss uncertainty estimation in deep models, proposing a solution based on a fully convolutional neural network. The proposed architecture is not restricted by the assumption that the uncertainty follows a Gaussian model, as in the case of many popular solutions for deep model uncertainty estimation, such as Monte-Carlo Dropout. We present results showing that uncertainty over obstacle distances is actually better modeled with a Laplace distribution. Then, we propose a novel approach to build maps based on Deep Neural Network uncertainty models. In particular, we present an algorithm to build a map that includes information over obstacle distance estimates while taking into account the level of uncertainty in each estimate. We show how the constructed map can be used to increase global navigation safety by planning trajectories which avoid areas of high uncertainty, enabling higher autonomy for mobile robots in indoor settings.

Inferring the 3D structure underlying a set of multi-view images typically requires solving two co-dependent tasks -- accurate 3D reconstruction requires precise camera poses, and predicting camera poses relies on (implicitly or explicitly) modeling the underlying 3D. The classical framework of analysis by synthesis casts this inference as a joint optimization seeking to explain the observed pixels, and recent instantiations learn expressive 3D representations (e.g., Neural Fields) with gradient-descent-based pose refinement of initial pose estimates. However, given a sparse set of observed views, the observations may not provide sufficient direct evidence to obtain complete and accurate 3D. Moreover, large errors in pose estimation may not be easily corrected and can further degrade the inferred 3D. To allow robust 3D reconstruction and pose estimation in this challenging setup, we propose SparseAGS, a method that adapts this analysis-by-synthesis approach by: a) including novel-view-synthesis-based generative priors in conjunction with photometric objectives to improve the quality of the inferred 3D, and b) explicitly reasoning about outliers and using a discrete search with a continuous optimization-based strategy to correct them. We validate our framework across real-world and synthetic datasets in combination with several off-the-shelf pose estimation systems as initialization. We find that it significantly improves the base systems' pose accuracy while yielding high-quality 3D reconstructions that outperform the results from current multi-view reconstruction baselines.

Neural radiance fields (NeRFs), 3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS), and related novel-view synthesis methods are commonly evaluated under capture and reconstruction conditions cleaner than those encountered by robots, drones, and autonomous systems. Benchmarks often rely on reconstruction-friendly trajectories, optimized camera poses and intrinsics, and held-out views sampled from trajectories represented during training. These assumptions can obscure performance with measured poses, reusable camera calibration, and structurally different camera paths. We introduce PIVOT (Pose, Intrinsics and Viewpoint Oriented Testbed), a multi-trajectory dataset, processing pipeline, and evaluation framework for independently studying these factors. PIVOT captures each scene using diverse camera trajectories and retains, where available, both sensor-derived measured poses and COLMAP-optimized poses, together with calibrated and optimized camera intrinsics. It defines three benchmark families: (1) seen versus unseen trajectory novel-view generalization, (2) measured versus optimized pose sensitivity, and (3) calibrated versus optimized intrinsics sensitivity. We also introduce a directed pose-space Chamfer distance to quantify how well training poses cover an evaluation trajectory. PIVOT v1 contains five real-world scenes captured with a DJI Mini 4 Pro and provides an open processing and Nerfstudio-based evaluation toolchain. Benchmark results show a consistent quality gap between held-out views on represented trajectories and unseen trajectories, as well as substantial sensitivity to pose source and camera intrinsics.

Accurate estimation of uncertainty in deep learning is critical for deploying models in high-stakes domains such as medical diagnosis and autonomous decision-making, where overconfident predictions can lead to harmful outcomes. In practice, understanding the reason behind a model's uncertainty and the type of uncertainty it represents can support risk-aware decisions, enhance user trust, and guide additional data collection. However, many existing methods only address a single type of uncertainty or require modifications and retraining of the base model, making them difficult to adopt in real-world systems. We introduce CUPID (Comprehensive Uncertainty Plug-in estImation moDel), a general-purpose module that jointly estimates aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty without modifying or retraining the base model. CUPID can be flexibly inserted into any layer of a pretrained network. It models aleatoric uncertainty through a learned Bayesian identity mapping and captures epistemic uncertainty by analyzing the model's internal responses to structured perturbations. We evaluate CUPID across a range of tasks, including classification, regression, and out-of-distribution detection. The results show that it consistently delivers competitive performance while offering layer-wise insights into the origins of uncertainty. By making uncertainty estimation modular, interpretable, and model-agnostic, CUPID supports more transparent and trustworthy AI. Related code and data are available at https://github.com/a-Fomalhaut-a/CUPID.

Realistic virtual humans play a crucial role in numerous industries, such as metaverse, intelligent healthcare, and self-driving simulation. But creating them on a large scale with high levels of realism remains a challenge. The utilization of deep implicit function sparks a new era of image-based 3D clothed human reconstruction, enabling pixel-aligned shape recovery with fine details. Subsequently, the vast majority of works locate the surface by regressing the deterministic implicit value for each point. However, should all points be treated equally regardless of their proximity to the surface? In this paper, we propose replacing the implicit value with an adaptive uncertainty distribution, to differentiate between points based on their distance to the surface. This simple ``value to distribution'' transition yields significant improvements on nearly all the baselines. Furthermore, qualitative results demonstrate that the models trained using our uncertainty distribution loss, can capture more intricate wrinkles, and realistic limbs. Code and models are available for research purposes at https://github.com/psyai-net/D-IF_release.

We introduce a method for transferring the signer's appearance in sign language skeletal poses while preserving the sign content. Using estimated poses, we transfer the appearance of one signer to another, maintaining natural movements and transitions. This approach improves pose-based rendering and sign stitching while obfuscating identity. Our experiments show that while the method reduces signer identification accuracy, it slightly harms sign recognition performance, highlighting a tradeoff between privacy and utility. Our code is available at https://github.com/sign-language-processing/pose-anonymization.

Quantifying uncertainty is important for actionable predictions in real-world applications. A crucial part of predictive uncertainty quantification is the estimation of epistemic uncertainty, which is defined as an integral of the product between a divergence function and the posterior. Current methods such as Deep Ensembles or MC dropout underperform at estimating the epistemic uncertainty, since they primarily consider the posterior when sampling models. We suggest Quantification of Uncertainty with Adversarial Models (QUAM) to better estimate the epistemic uncertainty. QUAM identifies regions where the whole product under the integral is large, not just the posterior. Consequently, QUAM has lower approximation error of the epistemic uncertainty compared to previous methods. Models for which the product is large correspond to adversarial models (not adversarial examples!). Adversarial models have both a high posterior as well as a high divergence between their predictions and that of a reference model. Our experiments show that QUAM excels in capturing epistemic uncertainty for deep learning models and outperforms previous methods on challenging tasks in the vision domain.

Recent advancements in multimodal large language models have enhanced document understanding by integrating textual and visual information. However, existing models exhibit incompleteness within their paradigm in real-world scenarios, particularly under visual degradation. In such conditions, the current response paradigm often fails to adequately perceive visual degradation and ambiguity, leading to overreliance on linguistic priors or misaligned visual-textual reasoning. This difficulty in recognizing uncertainty frequently results in the generation of hallucinatory content, especially when a precise answer is not feasible. To better demonstrate and analyze this phenomenon and problem, we propose KIE-HVQA, the first benchmark dedicated to evaluating OCR hallucination in degraded document understanding. This dataset includes test samples spanning identity cards and invoices, with simulated real-world degradations for OCR reliability. This setup allows for evaluating models' capacity, under degraded input, to distinguish reliable visual information and answer accordingly, thereby highlighting the challenge of avoiding hallucination on uncertain data. To achieve vision-faithful reasoning and thereby avoid the aforementioned issues, we further introduce a GRPO-based framework featuring a novel reward mechanism. By incorporating a self-awareness of visual uncertainty and an analysis method that initiates refusal to answer to increase task difficulty within our supervised fine-tuning and reinforcement learning framework, we successfully mitigated hallucinations in ambiguous regions. Experiments on Qwen2.5-VL demonstrate that our 7B-parameter model achieves a 22\% absolute improvement in hallucination-free accuracy over GPT-4o on KIE-HVQA and there is no significant performance drop in standard tasks, highlighting both effectiveness and robustness.

Epistemic Uncertainty is a measure of the lack of knowledge of a learner which diminishes with more evidence. While existing work focuses on using the variance of the Bayesian posterior due to parameter uncertainty as a measure of epistemic uncertainty, we argue that this does not capture the part of lack of knowledge induced by model misspecification. We discuss how the excess risk, which is the gap between the generalization error of a predictor and the Bayes predictor, is a sound measure of epistemic uncertainty which captures the effect of model misspecification. We thus propose a principled framework for directly estimating the excess risk by learning a secondary predictor for the generalization error and subtracting an estimate of aleatoric uncertainty, i.e., intrinsic unpredictability. We discuss the merits of this novel measure of epistemic uncertainty, and highlight how it differs from variance-based measures of epistemic uncertainty and addresses its major pitfall. Our framework, Direct Epistemic Uncertainty Prediction (DEUP) is particularly interesting in interactive learning environments, where the learner is allowed to acquire novel examples in each round. Through a wide set of experiments, we illustrate how existing methods in sequential model optimization can be improved with epistemic uncertainty estimates from DEUP, and how DEUP can be used to drive exploration in reinforcement learning. We also evaluate the quality of uncertainty estimates from DEUP for probabilistic image classification and predicting synergies of drug combinations.

To provide rigorous uncertainty quantification for online learning models, we develop a framework for constructing uncertainty sets that provably control risk -- such as coverage of confidence intervals, false negative rate, or F1 score -- in the online setting. This extends conformal prediction to apply to a larger class of online learning problems. Our method guarantees risk control at any user-specified level even when the underlying data distribution shifts drastically, even adversarially, over time in an unknown fashion. The technique we propose is highly flexible as it can be applied with any base online learning algorithm (e.g., a deep neural network trained online), requiring minimal implementation effort and essentially zero additional computational cost. We further extend our approach to control multiple risks simultaneously, so the prediction sets we generate are valid for all given risks. To demonstrate the utility of our method, we conduct experiments on real-world tabular time-series data sets showing that the proposed method rigorously controls various natural risks. Furthermore, we show how to construct valid intervals for an online image-depth estimation problem that previous sequential calibration schemes cannot handle.

Estimating camera poses is a fundamental task for 3D reconstruction and remains challenging given sparsely sampled views (<10). In contrast to existing approaches that pursue top-down prediction of global parametrizations of camera extrinsics, we propose a distributed representation of camera pose that treats a camera as a bundle of rays. This representation allows for a tight coupling with spatial image features improving pose precision. We observe that this representation is naturally suited for set-level transformers and develop a regression-based approach that maps image patches to corresponding rays. To capture the inherent uncertainties in sparse-view pose inference, we adapt this approach to learn a denoising diffusion model which allows us to sample plausible modes while improving performance. Our proposed methods, both regression- and diffusion-based, demonstrate state-of-the-art performance on camera pose estimation on CO3D while generalizing to unseen object categories and in-the-wild captures.

Generative video models demonstrate impressive text-to-video capabilities, spurring widespread adoption in many real-world applications. However, like large language models (LLMs), video generation models tend to hallucinate, producing plausible videos even when they are factually wrong. Although uncertainty quantification (UQ) of LLMs has been extensively studied in prior work, no UQ method for video models exists, raising critical safety concerns. To our knowledge, this paper represents the first work towards quantifying the uncertainty of video models. We present a framework for uncertainty quantification of generative video models, consisting of: (i) a metric for evaluating the calibration of video models based on robust rank correlation estimation with no stringent modeling assumptions; (ii) a black-box UQ method for video models (termed S-QUBED), which leverages latent modeling to rigorously decompose predictive uncertainty into its aleatoric and epistemic components; and (iii) a UQ dataset to facilitate benchmarking calibration in video models. By conditioning the generation task in the latent space, we disentangle uncertainty arising due to vague task specifications from that arising from lack of knowledge. Through extensive experiments on benchmark video datasets, we demonstrate that S-QUBED computes calibrated total uncertainty estimates that are negatively correlated with the task accuracy and effectively computes the aleatoric and epistemic constituents.

A critical obstacle preventing NeRF models from being deployed broadly in the wild is their reliance on accurate camera poses. Consequently, there is growing interest in extending NeRF models to jointly optimize camera poses and scene representation, which offers an alternative to off-the-shelf SfM pipelines which have well-understood failure modes. Existing approaches for unposed NeRF operate under limited assumptions, such as a prior pose distribution or coarse pose initialization, making them less effective in a general setting. In this work, we propose a novel approach, LU-NeRF, that jointly estimates camera poses and neural radiance fields with relaxed assumptions on pose configuration. Our approach operates in a local-to-global manner, where we first optimize over local subsets of the data, dubbed mini-scenes. LU-NeRF estimates local pose and geometry for this challenging few-shot task. The mini-scene poses are brought into a global reference frame through a robust pose synchronization step, where a final global optimization of pose and scene can be performed. We show our LU-NeRF pipeline outperforms prior attempts at unposed NeRF without making restrictive assumptions on the pose prior. This allows us to operate in the general SE(3) pose setting, unlike the baselines. Our results also indicate our model can be complementary to feature-based SfM pipelines as it compares favorably to COLMAP on low-texture and low-resolution images.

Posing 3D characters is a fundamental task in computer graphics and vision. However, existing methods like auto-rigging and pose-conditioned generation often struggle with challenges such as inaccurate skinning weight prediction, topological imperfections, and poor pose conformance, limiting their robustness and generalizability. To overcome these limitations, we introduce Make-It-Poseable, a novel feed-forward framework that reformulates character posing as a latent-space transformation problem. Instead of deforming mesh vertices as in traditional pipelines, our method reconstructs the character in new poses by directly manipulating its latent representation. At the core of our method is a latent posing transformer that manipulates shape tokens based on skeletal motion. This process is facilitated by a dense pose representation for precise control. To ensure high-fidelity geometry and accommodate topological changes, we also introduce a latent-space supervision strategy and an adaptive completion module. Our method demonstrates superior performance in posing quality. It also naturally extends to 3D editing applications like part replacement and refinement.

Large Language Models (LLMs) often generate outputs that lack grounding in real-world facts, a phenomenon known as hallucinations. Prior research has associated hallucinations with model uncertainty, leveraging this relationship for hallucination detection and mitigation. In this paper, we challenge the underlying assumption that all hallucinations are associated with uncertainty. Using knowledge detection and uncertainty measurement methods, we demonstrate that models can hallucinate with high certainty even when they have the correct knowledge. We further show that high-certainty hallucinations are consistent across models and datasets, distinctive enough to be singled out, and challenge existing mitigation methods. Our findings reveal an overlooked aspect of hallucinations, emphasizing the need to understand their origins and improve mitigation strategies to enhance LLM safety. The code is available at https://github.com/technion-cs-nlp/Trust_me_Im_wrong .

Monocular depth estimation, similar to other image-based tasks, is prone to erroneous predictions due to ambiguities in the image, for example, caused by dynamic objects or shadows. For this reason, pixel-wise uncertainty assessment is required for safety-critical applications to highlight the areas where the prediction is unreliable. We address this in a post hoc manner and introduce gradient-based uncertainty estimation for already trained depth estimation models. To extract gradients without depending on the ground truth depth, we introduce an auxiliary loss function based on the consistency of the predicted depth and a reference depth. The reference depth, which acts as pseudo ground truth, is in fact generated using a simple image or feature augmentation, making our approach simple and effective. To obtain the final uncertainty score, the derivatives w.r.t. the feature maps from single or multiple layers are calculated using back-propagation. We demonstrate that our gradient-based approach is effective in determining the uncertainty without re-training using the two standard depth estimation benchmarks KITTI and NYU. In particular, for models trained with monocular sequences and therefore most prone to uncertainty, our method outperforms related approaches. In addition, we publicly provide our code and models: https://github.com/jhornauer/GrUMoDepth

Camera pose matters. The position and orientation of each viewpoint define a shared spatial coordinate frame that relates observations across video frames. Yet this signal is largely absent from multimodal LLMs (MLLMs) for video understanding, which process frames as isolated 2D snapshots, instead of the persistent scene humans perceive. We revisit pose as a lightweight supervisory signal and introduce Cambrian-P, a video MLLM augmented with per-frame learnable camera tokens and a pose regression head. With a carefully designed sampling scheme, the model achieves substantial gains of 4.5-6.5% on spatial reasoning benchmarks such as VSI-Bench, generalizes across eight additional spatial and general video QA benchmarks, and, as a byproduct, achieves state of the art streaming pose estimation on ScanNet. Surprisingly, training on pseudo-annotated poses from in-the-wild video further improves general video QA benchmarks, showing pose helps beyond spatial reasoning. Together, these results position camera pose as a fundamental signal for video models that reason about the physical world.

Semi-supervised learning relaxes the need of large pixel-wise labeled datasets for image segmentation by leveraging unlabeled data. A prominent way to exploit unlabeled data is to regularize model predictions. Since the predictions of unlabeled data can be unreliable, uncertainty-aware schemes are typically employed to gradually learn from meaningful and reliable predictions. Uncertainty estimation methods, however, rely on multiple inferences from the model predictions that must be computed for each training step, which is computationally expensive. Moreover, these uncertainty maps capture pixel-wise disparities and do not consider global information. This work proposes a novel method to estimate segmentation uncertainty by leveraging global information from the segmentation masks. More precisely, an anatomically-aware representation is first learnt to model the available segmentation masks. The learnt representation thereupon maps the prediction of a new segmentation into an anatomically-plausible segmentation. The deviation from the plausible segmentation aids in estimating the underlying pixel-level uncertainty in order to further guide the segmentation network. The proposed method consequently estimates the uncertainty using a single inference from our representation, thereby reducing the total computation. We evaluate our method on two publicly available segmentation datasets of left atria in cardiac MRIs and of multiple organs in abdominal CTs. Our anatomically-aware method improves the segmentation accuracy over the state-of-the-art semi-supervised methods in terms of two commonly used evaluation metrics.

Vision-language models (VLMs) embed aligned image-text pairs into a joint space but often rely on deterministic embeddings, assuming a one-to-one correspondence between images and texts. This oversimplifies real-world relationships, which are inherently many-to-many, with multiple captions describing a single image and vice versa. We introduce Probabilistic Language-Image Pre-training (ProLIP), the first probabilistic VLM pre-trained on a billion-scale image-text dataset using only probabilistic objectives, achieving a strong zero-shot capability (e.g., 74.6% ImageNet zero-shot accuracy with ViT-B/16). ProLIP efficiently estimates uncertainty by an "uncertainty token" without extra parameters. We also introduce a novel inclusion loss that enforces distributional inclusion relationships between image-text pairs and between original and masked inputs. Experiments demonstrate that, by leveraging uncertainty estimates, ProLIP benefits downstream tasks and aligns with intuitive notions of uncertainty, e.g., shorter texts being more uncertain and more general inputs including specific ones. Utilizing text uncertainties, we further improve ImageNet accuracy from 74.6% to 75.8% (under a few-shot setting), supporting the practical advantages of our probabilistic approach. The code is available at https://github.com/naver-ai/prolip

Automated segmentation of BUS images is important for precise lesion delineation and tumor characterization, but is challenged by inherent artifacts and dataset inconsistencies. In this work, we evaluate the use of a modified Residual Encoder U-Net for breast ultrasound segmentation, with a focus on uncertainty quantification. We identify and correct for data duplication in the BUSI dataset, and use a deduplicated subset for more reliable estimates of generalization performance. Epistemic uncertainty is quantified using Monte Carlo dropout, deep ensembles, and their combination. Models are benchmarked on both in-distribution and out-of-distribution datasets to demonstrate how they generalize to unseen cross-domain data. Our approach achieves state-of-the-art segmentation accuracy on the Breast-Lesion-USG dataset with in-distribution validation, and provides calibrated uncertainty estimates that effectively signal regions of low model confidence. Performance declines and increased uncertainty observed in out-of-distribution evaluation highlight the persistent challenge of domain shift in medical imaging, and the importance of integrated uncertainty modeling for trustworthy clinical deployment. Code available at: https://github.com/toufiqmusah/nn-uncertainty.git

Given sparse views of an object, estimating their camera poses is a long-standing and intractable problem. We harness the pre-trained diffusion model of novel views conditioned on viewpoints (Zero-1-to-3). We present ID-Pose which inverses the denoising diffusion process to estimate the relative pose given two input images. ID-Pose adds a noise on one image, and predicts the noise conditioned on the other image and a decision variable for the pose. The prediction error is used as the objective to find the optimal pose with the gradient descent method. ID-Pose can handle more than two images and estimate each of the poses with multiple image pairs from triangular relationships. ID-Pose requires no training and generalizes to real-world images. We conduct experiments using high-quality real-scanned 3D objects, where ID-Pose significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods.

In monocular depth estimation, uncertainty estimation approaches mainly target the data uncertainty introduced by image noise. In contrast to prior work, we address the uncertainty due to lack of knowledge, which is relevant for the detection of data not represented by the training distribution, the so-called out-of-distribution (OOD) data. Motivated by anomaly detection, we propose to detect OOD images from an encoder-decoder depth estimation model based on the reconstruction error. Given the features extracted with the fixed depth encoder, we train an image decoder for image reconstruction using only in-distribution data. Consequently, OOD images result in a high reconstruction error, which we use to distinguish between in- and out-of-distribution samples. We built our experiments on the standard NYU Depth V2 and KITTI benchmarks as in-distribution data. Our post hoc method performs astonishingly well on different models and outperforms existing uncertainty estimation approaches without modifying the trained encoder-decoder depth estimation model.

Open-vocabulary 3D Scene Graph (3DSG) can enhance various downstream tasks in robotics by leveraging structured semantic representations, yet current 3DSG construction methods suffer from semantic inconsistencies caused by noisy cross-image aggregation under occlusions and constrained viewpoints. To mitigate the impact of such inconsistency, we propose RAG-3DSG, which introduces re-shot guided uncertainty estimation. By measuring the semantic consistency between original limited viewpoints and re-shot optimal viewpoints, this method quantifies the underlying semantic ambiguity of each graph object. Based on this quantification, we devise an Object-level Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) that leverages low-uncertainty objects as semantic anchors to retrieve more reliable contextual knowledge, enabling a Vision-Language Model to rectify the predictions of uncertain objects and optimize the final 3DSG. Extensive evaluations across three challenging benchmarks and real-world robot trials demonstrate that RAG-3DSG achieves superior recall and precision, effectively mitigating semantic noise to provide highly reliable scene representations for robotics tasks.

Modern machine learning methods including deep learning have achieved great success in predictive accuracy for supervised learning tasks, but may still fall short in giving useful estimates of their predictive {\em uncertainty}. Quantifying uncertainty is especially critical in real-world settings, which often involve input distributions that are shifted from the training distribution due to a variety of factors including sample bias and non-stationarity. In such settings, well calibrated uncertainty estimates convey information about when a model's output should (or should not) be trusted. Many probabilistic deep learning methods, including Bayesian-and non-Bayesian methods, have been proposed in the literature for quantifying predictive uncertainty, but to our knowledge there has not previously been a rigorous large-scale empirical comparison of these methods under dataset shift. We present a large-scale benchmark of existing state-of-the-art methods on classification problems and investigate the effect of dataset shift on accuracy and calibration. We find that traditional post-hoc calibration does indeed fall short, as do several other previous methods. However, some methods that marginalize over models give surprisingly strong results across a broad spectrum of tasks.

Driver observation models are rarely deployed under perfect conditions. In practice, illumination, camera placement and type differ from the ones present during training and unforeseen behaviours may occur at any time. While observing the human behind the steering wheel leads to more intuitive human-vehicle-interaction and safer driving, it requires recognition algorithms which do not only predict the correct driver state, but also determine their prediction quality through realistic and interpretable confidence measures. Reliable uncertainty estimates are crucial for building trust and are a serious obstacle for deploying activity recognition networks in real driving systems. In this work, we for the first time examine how well the confidence values of modern driver observation models indeed match the probability of the correct outcome and show that raw neural network-based approaches tend to significantly overestimate their prediction quality. To correct this misalignment between the confidence values and the actual uncertainty, we consider two strategies. First, we enhance two activity recognition models often used for driver observation with temperature scaling-an off-the-shelf method for confidence calibration in image classification. Then, we introduce Calibrated Action Recognition with Input Guidance (CARING)-a novel approach leveraging an additional neural network to learn scaling the confidences depending on the video representation. Extensive experiments on the Drive&Act dataset demonstrate that both strategies drastically improve the quality of model confidences, while our CARING model out-performs both, the original architectures and their temperature scaling enhancement, leading to best uncertainty estimates.

Inverse rendering of an object under entirely unknown capture conditions is a fundamental challenge in computer vision and graphics. Neural approaches such as NeRF have achieved photorealistic results on novel view synthesis, but they require known camera poses. Solving this problem with unknown camera poses is highly challenging as it requires joint optimization over shape, radiance, and pose. This problem is exacerbated when the input images are captured in the wild with varying backgrounds and illuminations. Standard pose estimation techniques fail in such image collections in the wild due to very few estimated correspondences across images. Furthermore, NeRF cannot relight a scene under any illumination, as it operates on radiance (the product of reflectance and illumination). We propose a joint optimization framework to estimate the shape, BRDF, and per-image camera pose and illumination. Our method works on in-the-wild online image collections of an object and produces relightable 3D assets for several use-cases such as AR/VR. To our knowledge, our method is the first to tackle this severely unconstrained task with minimal user interaction. Project page: https://markboss.me/publication/2022-samurai/ Video: https://youtu.be/LlYuGDjXp-8

We present WildGS-SLAM, a robust and efficient monocular RGB SLAM system designed to handle dynamic environments by leveraging uncertainty-aware geometric mapping. Unlike traditional SLAM systems, which assume static scenes, our approach integrates depth and uncertainty information to enhance tracking, mapping, and rendering performance in the presence of moving objects. We introduce an uncertainty map, predicted by a shallow multi-layer perceptron and DINOv2 features, to guide dynamic object removal during both tracking and mapping. This uncertainty map enhances dense bundle adjustment and Gaussian map optimization, improving reconstruction accuracy. Our system is evaluated on multiple datasets and demonstrates artifact-free view synthesis. Results showcase WildGS-SLAM's superior performance in dynamic environments compared to state-of-the-art methods.

Uncertainty quantification is essential for assessing the reliability and trustworthiness of modern AI systems. Among existing approaches, verbalized uncertainty, where models express their confidence through natural language, has emerged as a lightweight and interpretable solution in large language models (LLMs). However, its effectiveness in vision-language models (VLMs) remains insufficiently studied. In this work, we conduct a comprehensive evaluation of verbalized confidence in VLMs, spanning three model categories, four task domains, and three evaluation scenarios. Our results show that current VLMs often display notable miscalibration across diverse tasks and settings. Notably, visual reasoning models (i.e., thinking with images) consistently exhibit better calibration, suggesting that modality-specific reasoning is critical for reliable uncertainty estimation. To further address calibration challenges, we introduce Visual Confidence-Aware Prompting, a two-stage prompting strategy that improves confidence alignment in multimodal settings. Overall, our study highlights the inherent miscalibration in VLMs across modalities. More broadly, our findings underscore the fundamental importance of modality alignment and model faithfulness in advancing reliable multimodal systems.

Popular approaches for quantifying predictive uncertainty in deep neural networks often involve distributions over weights or multiple models, for instance via Markov Chain sampling, ensembling, or Monte Carlo dropout. These techniques usually incur overhead by having to train multiple model instances or do not produce very diverse predictions. This comprehensive and extensive survey aims to familiarize the reader with an alternative class of models based on the concept of Evidential Deep Learning: For unfamiliar data, they aim to admit "what they don't know", and fall back onto a prior belief. Furthermore, they allow uncertainty estimation in a single model and forward pass by parameterizing distributions over distributions. This survey recapitulates existing works, focusing on the implementation in a classification setting, before surveying the application of the same paradigm to regression. We also reflect on the strengths and weaknesses compared to other existing methods and provide the most fundamental derivations using a unified notation to aid future research.

Human pose and shape (HPS) estimation methods achieve remarkable results. However, current HPS benchmarks are mostly designed to test models in scenarios that are similar to the training data. This can lead to critical situations in real-world applications when the observed data differs significantly from the training data and hence is out-of-distribution (OOD). It is therefore important to test and improve the OOD robustness of HPS methods. To address this fundamental problem, we develop a simulator that can be controlled in a fine-grained manner using interpretable parameters to explore the manifold of images of human pose, e.g. by varying poses, shapes, and clothes. We introduce a learning-based testing method, termed PoseExaminer, that automatically diagnoses HPS algorithms by searching over the parameter space of human pose images to find the failure modes. Our strategy for exploring this high-dimensional parameter space is a multi-agent reinforcement learning system, in which the agents collaborate to explore different parts of the parameter space. We show that our PoseExaminer discovers a variety of limitations in current state-of-the-art models that are relevant in real-world scenarios but are missed by current benchmarks. For example, it finds large regions of realistic human poses that are not predicted correctly, as well as reduced performance for humans with skinny and corpulent body shapes. In addition, we show that fine-tuning HPS methods by exploiting the failure modes found by PoseExaminer improve their robustness and even their performance on standard benchmarks by a significant margin. The code are available for research purposes.

We study the problem of mapping parameter-space variance of a 3D Morphable Model (3DMM) to per-vertex variance. Traditionally, per-vertex variance has been used to visually interpret the learnt parameter uncertainty. However, mapping parameter-space variance to per-vertex using sampling or error propagation is computationally expensive. We address this limitation with Closed-form Local Uncertainty Estimation (CLUE), which transforms the parameter-space distribution of 3DMMs to per-vertex through a closed-form approximation. CLUE emerges from applying the law of total variance to the 3DMM formulation and is modular, computationally inexpensive, and accurate. Subsequently, we study integrating CLUE for in-the-wild human mesh recovery training and inference. We note that CLUE uses the geometry of the mesh as an inductive bias when predicting the variance, leading to improved accuracy. Through extensive qualitative and quantitative experiments, we show that when used in training, CLUE (1) outpeforms probabilistic and deterministic baselines on metrics evaluating joints, mesh and uncertainty, and (2) has the highest uncertainty-to-error spearman correlation, with applications including data mining and interpretable uncertainty. Finally, we share SAM 3D Body (CLUE) which augments the regressor with high resolution uncertainty maps. We make our code available at https://github.com/vita-epfl/CLUE

Cutting out an object and estimating its opacity mask, known as image matting, is a key task in image and video editing. Due to the highly ill-posed issue, additional inputs, typically user-defined trimaps or scribbles, are usually needed to reduce the uncertainty. Although effective, it is either time consuming or only suitable for experienced users who know where to place the strokes. In this work, we propose a decomposed-uncertainty-guided matting (dugMatting) algorithm, which explores the explicitly decomposed uncertainties to efficiently and effectively improve the results. Basing on the characteristic of these uncertainties, the epistemic uncertainty is reduced in the process of guiding interaction (which introduces prior knowledge), while the aleatoric uncertainty is reduced in modeling data distribution (which introduces statistics for both data and possible noise). The proposed matting framework relieves the requirement for users to determine the interaction areas by using simple and efficient labeling. Extensively quantitative and qualitative results validate that the proposed method significantly improves the original matting algorithms in terms of both efficiency and efficacy.

Recent advances in handling long sequences have facilitated the exploration of long-context in-context learning (ICL). While much of the existing research emphasizes performance improvements driven by additional in-context examples, the influence on the trustworthiness of generated responses remains underexplored. This paper addresses this gap by investigating how increased examples influence predictive uncertainty, an essential aspect in trustworthiness. We begin by systematically quantifying the uncertainty of ICL with varying shot counts, analyzing the impact of example quantity. Through uncertainty decomposition, we introduce a novel perspective on performance enhancement, with a focus on epistemic uncertainty (EU). Our results reveal that additional examples reduce total uncertainty in both simple and complex tasks by injecting task-specific knowledge, thereby diminishing EU and enhancing performance. For complex tasks, these advantages emerge only after addressing the increased noise and uncertainty associated with longer inputs. Finally, we explore the evolution of internal confidence across layers, unveiling the mechanisms driving the reduction in uncertainty.

Predicting not only the target but also an accurate measure of uncertainty is important for many machine learning applications and in particular safety-critical ones. In this work we study the calibration of uncertainty prediction for regression tasks which often arise in real-world systems. We show that the existing definition for calibration of a regression uncertainty [Kuleshov et al. 2018] has severe limitations in distinguishing informative from non-informative uncertainty predictions. We propose a new definition that escapes this caveat and an evaluation method using a simple histogram-based approach. Our method clusters examples with similar uncertainty prediction and compares the prediction with the empirical uncertainty on these examples. We also propose a simple, scaling-based calibration method that preforms as well as much more complex ones. We show results on both a synthetic, controlled problem and on the object detection bounding-box regression task using the COCO and KITTI datasets.

Without manually annotated identities, unsupervised multi-object trackers are inferior to learning reliable feature embeddings. It causes the similarity-based inter-frame association stage also be error-prone, where an uncertainty problem arises. The frame-by-frame accumulated uncertainty prevents trackers from learning the consistent feature embedding against time variation. To avoid this uncertainty problem, recent self-supervised techniques are adopted, whereas they failed to capture temporal relations. The interframe uncertainty still exists. In fact, this paper argues that though the uncertainty problem is inevitable, it is possible to leverage the uncertainty itself to improve the learned consistency in turn. Specifically, an uncertainty-based metric is developed to verify and rectify the risky associations. The resulting accurate pseudo-tracklets boost learning the feature consistency. And accurate tracklets can incorporate temporal information into spatial transformation. This paper proposes a tracklet-guided augmentation strategy to simulate tracklets' motion, which adopts a hierarchical uncertainty-based sampling mechanism for hard sample mining. The ultimate unsupervised MOT framework, namely U2MOT, is proven effective on MOT-Challenges and VisDrone-MOT benchmark. U2MOT achieves a SOTA performance among the published supervised and unsupervised trackers.

LiDAR relocalization has attracted increasing attention as it can deliver accurate 6-DoF pose estimation in complex 3D environments. Recent learning-based regression methods offer efficient solutions by directly predicting global poses without the need for explicit map storage. However, these methods often struggle in challenging scenes due to their equal treatment of all predicted points, which is vulnerable to noise and outliers. In this paper, we propose LEADER, a robust LiDAR-based relocalization framework enhanced by a simple, yet effective geometric encoder. Specifically, a Robust Projection-based Geometric Encoder architecture which captures multi-scale geometric features is first presented to enhance descriptiveness in geometric representation. A Truncated Relative Reliability loss is then formulated to model point-wise ambiguity and mitigate the influence of unreliable predictions. Extensive experiments on the Oxford RobotCar and NCLT datasets demonstrate that LEADER outperforms state-of-the-art methods, achieving 24.1% and 73.9% relative reductions in position error over existing techniques, respectively. The source code is released on https://github.com/JiansW/LEADER.

In this paper, we focus on the task of conditional image generation, where an image is synthesized according to user instructions. The critical challenge underpinning this task is ensuring both the fidelity of the generated images and their semantic alignment with the provided conditions. To tackle this issue, previous studies have employed supervised perceptual losses derived from pre-trained models, i.e., reward models, to enforce alignment between the condition and the generated result. However, we observe one inherent shortcoming: considering the diversity of synthesized images, the reward model usually provides inaccurate feedback when encountering newly generated data, which can undermine the training process. To address this limitation, we propose an uncertainty-aware reward modeling, called Ctrl-U, including uncertainty estimation and uncertainty-aware regularization, designed to reduce the adverse effects of imprecise feedback from the reward model. Given the inherent cognitive uncertainty within reward models, even images generated under identical conditions often result in a relatively large discrepancy in reward loss. Inspired by the observation, we explicitly leverage such prediction variance as an uncertainty indicator. Based on the uncertainty estimation, we regularize the model training by adaptively rectifying the reward. In particular, rewards with lower uncertainty receive higher loss weights, while those with higher uncertainty are given reduced weights to allow for larger variability. The proposed uncertainty regularization facilitates reward fine-tuning through consistency construction. Extensive experiments validate the effectiveness of our methodology in improving the controllability and generation quality, as well as its scalability across diverse conditional scenarios. Code will soon be available at https://grenoble-zhang.github.io/Ctrl-U-Page/.

Vision-Language Models (VLMs) have enabled autonomous GUI agents that translate natural language instructions into executable screen coordinates. However, grounding performance degrades in high-resolution interfaces, where dense layouts and small interactive elements expose a resolution gap between modern displays and model input constraints. Existing zoom-in strategies rely on fixed anchors, heuristic grids, or reinforcement learning, lacking a principled mechanism to adaptively determine where refinement is needed and how much spatial uncertainty should be explored. We propose AutoFocus, a training-free, uncertainty-aware active visual search framework for GUI grounding. Our key insight is that token-level perplexity in coordinate generation naturally reflects spatial uncertainty. Rather than committing to a single prediction, AutoFocus samples multiple coordinate hypotheses and converts their axial perplexities into an anisotropic gaussian spatial probability field, explicitly modeling directional uncertainty. Based on this field, we generate global and local region proposals and introduce Shape-Aware Zooming to balance tight localization with contextual preservation. A visual prompt-based aggregation step then selects the most consistent prediction via structured comparison. Extensive experiments on ScreenSpot-Pro and ScreenSpot-V2 demonstrate consistent improvements across both general-purpose and GUI-specialized VLMs.

We propose a novel method to capture data points near decision boundary in neural network that are often referred to a specific type of uncertainty. In our approach, we sought to perform uncertainty estimation based on the idea of adversarial attack method. In this paper, uncertainty estimates are derived from the input perturbations, unlike previous studies that provide perturbations on the model's parameters as in Bayesian approach. We are able to produce uncertainty with couple of perturbations on the inputs. Interestingly, we apply the proposed method to datasets derived from blockchain. We compare the performance of model uncertainty with the most recent uncertainty methods. We show that the proposed method has revealed a significant outperformance over other methods and provided less risk to capture model uncertainty in machine learning.

LiDAR-based 3D sensors provide point clouds, a canonical 3D representation used in various scene understanding tasks. Modern LiDARs face key challenges in several real-world scenarios, such as long-distance or low-albedo objects, producing sparse or erroneous point clouds. These errors, which are rooted in the noisy raw LiDAR measurements, get propagated to downstream perception models, resulting in potentially severe loss of accuracy. This is because conventional 3D processing pipelines do not retain any uncertainty information from the raw measurements when constructing point clouds. We propose Probabilistic Point Clouds (PPC), a novel 3D scene representation where each point is augmented with a probability attribute that encapsulates the measurement uncertainty (or confidence) in the raw data. We further introduce inference approaches that leverage PPC for robust 3D object detection; these methods are versatile and can be used as computationally lightweight drop-in modules in 3D inference pipelines. We demonstrate, via both simulations and real captures, that PPC-based 3D inference methods outperform several baselines using LiDAR as well as camera-LiDAR fusion models, across challenging indoor and outdoor scenarios involving small, distant, and low-albedo objects, as well as strong ambient light. Our project webpage is at https://bhavyagoyal.github.io/ppc .

Accurate and reliable C-arm positioning is essential for fluoroscopy-guided interventions. However, clinical workflows rely on manual alignment that increases radiation exposure and procedural delays. In this work, we present a pipeline that autonomously navigates the C-arm to predefined anatomical landmarks utilizing X-ray images. Given an input X-ray image from an arbitrary starting location on the operating table, the model predicts a 3D displacement vector toward each target landmark along the body. To ensure reliable deployment, we capture both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties in the model's predictions and further calibrate them using conformal prediction. The derived prediction regions are interpreted as 3D confidence regions around the predicted landmark locations. The training framework combines a probabilistic loss with skeletal pose regularization to encourage anatomically plausible outputs. We validate our approach on a synthetic X-ray dataset generated from DeepDRR. Results show not only strong localization accuracy across multiple architectures but also well-calibrated prediction bounds. These findings highlight the pipeline's potential as a component in safe and reliable autonomous C-arm systems. Code is available at https://github.com/AhmadArrabi/C_arm_guidance_APAH