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Oct 16

TriRoute: Unified Learned Routing for Joint Adaptive Attention, Experts, and KV-Cache Allocation

Conditional computation can decouple language model quality from per-token inference cost, yet leading techniques act on a single axis in isolation: Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) sparsifies the FFN, Mixture-of-Depths (MoD) skips whole transformer blocks, and KV-cache quantization compresses attention memory. We argue these three decisions (attention resolution, expert selection, and cache bit-width) are strongly coupled and should be made jointly: a token rare enough to warrant full attention may also need high-precision caching regardless of which expert processes it. We introduce TriRoute, a single lightweight controller shared across all three axes that, for every token at every layer, emits a coordinated policy: (i) an attention mode (skip/local/full), (ii) a sparse set of FFN experts (with a null expert recovering MoD), and (iii) a KV-cache bit-width. The controller trains end-to-end via a heterogeneous relaxation (Gumbel-Softmax with straight-through estimation for categorical decisions and load-balanced top-k gating for experts) under a Lagrangian budget constraint that turns the average compute and memory cost into a controllable knob. We identify a cross-axis routing-collapse cascade in naive joint training, where collapse on one axis propagates to the others, and address it with per-axis normalization and a coupling-aware balancing loss. On decoder-only models from 160M to 1.3B parameters at compute-optimal token counts, TriRoute Pareto-dominates the best independent MoD+MoE+KV-quantization combination at matched inference FLOPs and memory, while better preserving tail-case robustness on rare entities, code, and arithmetic that pure perplexity optimization erodes. Post-hoc analysis reveals interpretable structure: the controller allocates full attention and high-precision cache to sentence-initial positions, rare subwords, and named entities, while cheaply routing function words.

  • 2 authors
·
Jul 6

Same Agent, Different Answers: A Repeat-Aware Audit of Corpus-Induced Answer Churn in Retrieval-Augmented QA

A retrieval-augmented QA system can return different answers after an index expansion even when its requested model identifier, prompt, retrieval policy, evidence depth, rendering, and exposed generation controls are held fixed. Aggregate accuracy may hide these changes when gains and losses cancel, while ordinary generation variability makes one-shot comparisons overstate update effects. We call the hidden phenomenon accuracy-blind answer churn and introduce the Snapshot Compatibility Audit, which estimates excess answer churn by subtracting same-snapshot repeat disagreement from cross-snapshot disagreement. We instantiate it by expanding one frozen FineWeb prefix from one to seven shards. In a preregistered 400-question Natural Questions study, normalized-exact and blinded-semantic excess churn are 6.44 and 10.25 percentage points while exact-match accuracy changes by only -1.50 points. A post-hoc analysis finds repeat-stable semantic flips on 40/400 questions. A separately preregistered 200-question TriviaQA study yields smaller, directionally consistent excess churn while exact-match accuracy moves in the opposite direction. An outcome-blind post-hoc 100-question subset replication with a second DeepSeek generator and serving configuration finds 8.75 pp of semantic excess churn even as exact match rises by 3.00 percentage points. Answer-level compatibility can therefore fail without a conspicuous or consistently directed utility shift. Retrieval-augmented releases should audit compatibility alongside utility.

Three Phases of Expert Routing: How Load Balance Evolves During Mixture-of-Experts Training

We model Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) token routing as a congestion game with a single effective parameter, the congestion coefficient gamma_eff, that quantifies the balance-quality tradeoff. Tracking gamma_eff across training checkpoints of two open-source MoE models, OLMoE-1B-7B (20 checkpoints, with dense sampling in the surge region) and OpenMoE-8B (6 checkpoints), reveals a three-phase trajectory: a surge phase where the router learns to balance load (gamma_eff: 14 to 36-39, peaking in the step 30K-40K region), a stabilization phase where experts specialize under steady balance (B_0: 2.4 to 2.3, steps 100K-400K), and a relaxation phase where the router trades balance for quality as experts differentiate (gamma_eff: 27 to 9, steps 400K-1.2M). This non-monotone trajectory, invisible to post-hoc analysis of converged models, reveals that early MoE training prioritizes balance while late training prioritizes quality. The theoretical framework is honest about its limits: the single-type equilibrium reduces to temperature-scaled softmax (held-out L1: MFG = 0.199 vs. softmax = 0.200). The game is not a better predictor; it reveals what the temperature means and, critically, how that temperature evolves. We complement the dynamics with an effective congestion decomposition, a multi-type extension that improves load prediction via token clustering on all 16 layers (mean: 30%), scope diagnostics (K/M, epsilon_l), and robustness verification across four independent quality estimators (r >= 0.89). All confidence intervals are from bootstrap resampling over 50 independent text batches.

  • 1 authors
·
Apr 4

OVO-Bench: How Far is Your Video-LLMs from Real-World Online Video Understanding?

Temporal Awareness, the ability to reason dynamically based on the timestamp when a question is raised, is the key distinction between offline and online video LLMs. Unlike offline models, which rely on complete videos for static, post hoc analysis, online models process video streams incrementally and dynamically adapt their responses based on the timestamp at which the question is posed. Despite its significance, temporal awareness has not been adequately evaluated in existing benchmarks. To fill this gap, we present OVO-Bench (Online-VideO-Benchmark), a novel video benchmark that emphasizes the importance of timestamps for advanced online video understanding capability benchmarking. OVO-Bench evaluates the ability of video LLMs to reason and respond to events occurring at specific timestamps under three distinct scenarios: (1) Backward tracing: trace back to past events to answer the question. (2) Real-time understanding: understand and respond to events as they unfold at the current timestamp. (3) Forward active responding: delay the response until sufficient future information becomes available to answer the question accurately. OVO-Bench comprises 12 tasks, featuring 644 unique videos and approximately human-curated 2,800 fine-grained meta-annotations with precise timestamps. We combine automated generation pipelines with human curation. With these high-quality samples, we further developed an evaluation pipeline to systematically query video LLMs along the video timeline. Evaluations of nine Video-LLMs reveal that, despite advancements on traditional benchmarks, current models struggle with online video understanding, showing a significant gap compared to human agents. We hope OVO-Bench will drive progress in video LLMs and inspire future research in online video reasoning. Our benchmark and code can be accessed at https://github.com/JoeLeelyf/OVO-Bench.

  • 15 authors
·
Jan 9, 2025 2

Qwen-Scope: Turning Sparse Features into Development Tools for Large Language Models

Large language models have achieved remarkable capabilities across diverse tasks, yet their internal decision-making processes remain largely opaque, limiting our ability to inspect, control, and systematically improve them. This opacity motivates a growing body of research in mechanistic interpretability, with sparse autoencoders (SAEs) emerging as one of the most promising tools for decomposing model activations into sparse, interpretable feature representations. We introduce Qwen-Scope, an open-source suite of SAEs built on the Qwen model family, comprising 14 groups of SAEs across 7 model variants from the Qwen3 and Qwen3.5 series, covering both dense and mixture-of-expert architectures. Built on top of these SAEs, we show that SAEs can go beyond post-hoc analysis to serve as practical interfaces for model development along four directions: (i) inference-time steering, where SAE feature directions control language, concepts, and preferences without modifying model weights; (ii) evaluation analysis, where activated SAE features provide a representation-level proxy for benchmark redundancy and capability coverage; (iii) data-centric workflows, where SAE features support multilingual toxicity classification and safety-oriented data synthesis; and (iv) post-training optimization, where SAE-derived signals are incorporated into supervised fine-tuning and reinforcement learning objectives to mitigate undesirable behaviors such as code-switching and repetition. Together, these results demonstrate that SAEs can serve not only as post-hoc analysis tools, but also as reusable representation-level interfaces for diagnosing, controlling, evaluating, and improving large language models. By open-sourcing Qwen-Scope, we aim to support mechanistic research and accelerate practical workflows that connect model internals to downstream behavior.

  • 18 authors
·
May 11

LYNX: Learning Dynamic Exits for Confidence-Controlled Reasoning

Large reasoning models achieve strong performance on complex tasks by generating extended chains of thought, but they often "overthink": continuing to reason long after they have enough information to answer correctly. This wastes inference-time compute and can hurt accuracy. Existing attempts to stop early either manipulate decoding with extra sampling and heuristics, rely on auxiliary verifier models, or operate only as post-hoc analysis pipelines without formal guarantees. We introduce LYNX, an online early-exit mechanism that turns a model's own hidden-state awareness into confidence-controlled stopping decisions. LYNX attaches exit decisions to naturally occurring reasoning cues (e.g., "hmm", "wait") during generation, trains a lightweight probe on hidden states at those cue tokens using supervision from forced exits, and wraps the resulting scores in split conformal prediction to obtain distribution-free control over premature exits. Crucially, we train and calibrate this probe once on a generic mathematical corpus and reuse it unchanged across benchmarks, decoding temperatures, and even non-mathematical tasks. Across three model families spanning 1.5B to 32B parameters, a single mathematically trained probe per base model yields strong accuracy--efficiency tradeoffs. On GSM8K, LYNX matches or improves baseline accuracy while reducing tokens by 40--65\%; on MATH-500 it improves accuracy by up to 12 points with roughly 35--60\% fewer tokens; on AIME 2024 it recovers baseline accuracy with more than 50\% token savings; and on CommonsenseQA, a non-math benchmark, it transfers zero-shot with modest accuracy gains and up to 70\% fewer tokens. Compared to state-of-the-art early-exit methods, LYNX offers competitive or superior Pareto frontiers while remaining fully online, requiring no proxy models at inference, and providing explicit, user-tunable confidence guarantees.

GFGE: Unifying Explainable AI Methods through an Interpretation Framework

Explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) encompasses methods that draw on different sources of information and address different explanatory needs. A common framework is needed to describe how this information becomes evidence and is communicated as an explanation for a particular recipient. We propose the General Framework for Generating Explanations (GFGE), grounded in interpretative frameworks and the complementary activities of sense-reading and sense-giving. Its conceptual foundation is the Interpret/Explain Schema (IES), which connects an analyst's interpretation of system evidence, the communication of a selected account, and the recipient's interpretation of that account. GFGE operationalises this schema through five roles: data interpretation, model interpretation, output interpretation, optional post-hoc analysis, and aggregation. A role-typed operation graph records method-specific dependencies, while evidence records retain the sources, assumptions, and limitations of explanatory claims. The explanatory question, audience, and context guide the procedure. We instantiate GFGE for attribution, surrogate, counterfactual, concept and prototype, intrinsic rule, argumentation, and language-model methods. These instantiations show how intrinsic, post-hoc, and hybrid workflows can be represented through the same roles while preserving their distinct evidential requirements. GFGE provides a common basis for analysing explanation workflows, tracing communicated claims to their evidence, and identifying unresolved explanatory dependencies.

  • 1 authors
·
Oct 3

Interpretable-by-Design Transformers via Architectural Stream Independence

While transformers achieve strong performance, their internal decision-making processes remain opaque. We investigate whether architectural constraints can enforce interpretability by design through architectural stream independence: maintaining a token stream (carrying symbolic structure) and contextual semantics in separated streams that remain independently observable throughout processing, with integration delayed until output. We validate this principle through the Late Fusion Architecture (LFA), which demonstrates interpretable symbolic heads through all the final layers, while standard transformers show dissolution by the third of six layers; we quantify this effect by introducing the Token-Position Dependence Score (PDS), with PDS_{max} = 0.276 and 0.058, respectively. Crucially, intervention experiments demonstrate functional modularity: suppressing LFA's recency heads causes minimal semantic damage (Cohen's d = -0.158) versus catastrophic entanglement in baselines (d = -0.672). LFA demonstrates that architectural constraints improve underlying learning mechanisms, averaging 42% stability versus 19% and 11% for baseline comparisons, with extremes from 50% on LFA's best pairs (6 of 12 heads position-invariant) down to 0% complete collapse in over-constrained cases. By preventing premature entanglement, architectural independence steers models toward semantic understanding over positional heuristics, establishing interpretability as an architectural design criterion enforceable through structural constraints rather than post-hoc analysis.

  • 2 authors
·
Mar 8

ClasSAE: Class-Aligned Sparse Autoencoders via Differentiable Feature-Class Affinity

Sparse Autoencoders (SAEs) began as an unsupervised tool for decomposing neural representations into sparse, interpretable features, and are increasingly used not only for passive analysis but also for active interventions such as unlearning, bias mitigation, and concept editing. A central challenge for these editing and steering methods is reliably matching features to target concepts; most current approaches address this by computing post-hoc scores over an already-trained, frozen dictionary. We instead introduce ClasSAE, a novel method that both automatically assigns classes to features and guides the encoder toward class-separable representations during training. Specifically, we apply a differentiable top-k operator to a trainable feature--class affinity matrix with per-feature budgets, coupling the features selected for each sample to the classes they are trained to represent. Because gradients flow through the selection of active features rather than only through their magnitudes, the encoder and the affinity matrix co-adapt rather than being fit in separate stages. The result is a dictionary that is both class-separable and class-annotated, with no need for post-hoc probing. We propose three variants for enforcing sparsity within this framework, which achieve comparable overall performance with slightly different trade-offs. Using CLIP ViT-L/14 embeddings on ImageNet, we show that the learned affinity matrix agrees closely with an independently estimated post-hoc feature-class matrix computed on held-out data. The model also supports direct class prediction from the encoder and affinity matrix alone, without a separately fitted classifier, and its more class-aligned encoder yields improved separation in Targeted Probe Perturbation evaluations. https://github.com/St0pien/ClasSAE.

  • 4 authors
·
Oct 1

Representation learning for improved interpretability and classification accuracy of clinical factors from EEG

Despite extensive standardization, diagnostic interviews for mental health disorders encompass substantial subjective judgment. Previous studies have demonstrated that EEG-based neural measures can function as reliable objective correlates of depression, or even predictors of depression and its course. However, their clinical utility has not been fully realized because of 1) the lack of automated ways to deal with the inherent noise associated with EEG data at scale, and 2) the lack of knowledge of which aspects of the EEG signal may be markers of a clinical disorder. Here we adapt an unsupervised pipeline from the recent deep representation learning literature to address these problems by 1) learning a disentangled representation using beta-VAE to denoise the signal, and 2) extracting interpretable features associated with a sparse set of clinical labels using a Symbol-Concept Association Network (SCAN). We demonstrate that our method is able to outperform the canonical hand-engineered baseline classification method on a number of factors, including participant age and depression diagnosis. Furthermore, our method recovers a representation that can be used to automatically extract denoised Event Related Potentials (ERPs) from novel, single EEG trajectories, and supports fast supervised re-mapping to various clinical labels, allowing clinicians to re-use a single EEG representation regardless of updates to the standardized diagnostic system. Finally, single factors of the learned disentangled representations often correspond to meaningful markers of clinical factors, as automatically detected by SCAN, allowing for human interpretability and post-hoc expert analysis of the recommendations made by the model.

  • 9 authors
·
Oct 28, 2020

Post-Hoc Split-Point Self-Consistency Verification for Efficient, Unified Quantification of Aleatoric and Epistemic Uncertainty in Deep Learning

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is vital for trustworthy deep learning, yet existing methods are either computationally intensive, such as Bayesian or ensemble methods, or provide only partial, task-specific estimates, such as single-forward-pass techniques. In this paper, we propose a post-hoc single-forward-pass framework that jointly captures aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty without modifying or retraining pretrained models. Our method applies Split-Point Analysis (SPA) to decompose predictive residuals into upper and lower subsets, computing Mean Absolute Residuals (MARs) on each side. We prove that, under ideal conditions, the total MAR equals the harmonic mean of subset MARs; deviations define a novel Self-consistency Discrepancy Score (SDS) for fine-grained epistemic estimation across regression and classification. For regression, side-specific quantile regression yields prediction intervals with improved empirical coverage, which are further calibrated via SDS. For classification, when calibration data are available, we apply SPA-based calibration identities to adjust the softmax outputs and then compute predictive entropy on these calibrated probabilities. Extensive experiments on diverse regression and classification benchmarks demonstrate that our framework matches or exceeds several state-of-the-art UQ methods while incurring minimal overhead. Our source code is available at https://github.com/zzz0527/SPC-UQ.

  • 2 authors
·
Sep 16, 2025

Underwater SONAR Image Classification and Analysis using LIME-based Explainable Artificial Intelligence

Deep learning techniques have revolutionized image classification by mimicking human cognition and automating complex decision-making processes. However, the deployment of AI systems in the wild, especially in high-security domains such as defence, is curbed by the lack of explainability of the model. To this end, eXplainable AI (XAI) is an emerging area of research that is intended to explore the unexplained hidden black box nature of deep neural networks. This paper explores the application of the eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) tool to interpret the underwater image classification results, one of the first works in the domain to the best of our knowledge. Our study delves into the realm of SONAR image classification using a custom dataset derived from diverse sources, including the Seabed Objects KLSG dataset, the camera SONAR dataset, the mine SONAR images dataset, and the SCTD dataset. An extensive analysis of transfer learning techniques for image classification using benchmark Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) architectures such as VGG16, ResNet50, InceptionV3, DenseNet121, etc. is carried out. On top of this classification model, a post-hoc XAI technique, viz. Local Interpretable Model-Agnostic Explanations (LIME) are incorporated to provide transparent justifications for the model's decisions by perturbing input data locally to see how predictions change. Furthermore, Submodular Picks LIME (SP-LIME) a version of LIME particular to images, that perturbs the image based on the submodular picks is also extensively studied. To this end, two submodular optimization algorithms i.e. Quickshift and Simple Linear Iterative Clustering (SLIC) are leveraged towards submodular picks. The extensive analysis of XAI techniques highlights interpretability of the results in a more human-compliant way, thus boosting our confidence and reliability.

  • 2 authors
·
Aug 23, 2024

Interactive Medical Image Analysis with Concept-based Similarity Reasoning

The ability to interpret and intervene model decisions is important for the adoption of computer-aided diagnosis methods in clinical workflows. Recent concept-based methods link the model predictions with interpretable concepts and modify their activation scores to interact with the model. However, these concepts are at the image level, which hinders the model from pinpointing the exact patches the concepts are activated. Alternatively, prototype-based methods learn representations from training image patches and compare these with test image patches, using the similarity scores for final class prediction. However, interpreting the underlying concepts of these patches can be challenging and often necessitates post-hoc guesswork. To address this issue, this paper introduces the novel Concept-based Similarity Reasoning network (CSR), which offers (i) patch-level prototype with intrinsic concept interpretation, and (ii) spatial interactivity. First, the proposed CSR provides localized explanation by grounding prototypes of each concept on image regions. Second, our model introduces novel spatial-level interaction, allowing doctors to engage directly with specific image areas, making it an intuitive and transparent tool for medical imaging. CSR improves upon prior state-of-the-art interpretable methods by up to 4.5\% across three biomedical datasets. Our code is released at https://github.com/tadeephuy/InteractCSR.

  • 10 authors
·
Mar 9, 2025

Agent^2 RL-Bench: Can LLM Agents Engineer Agentic RL Post-Training?

We introduce Agent2 RL-Bench, a compact diagnostic benchmark for evaluating agentic RL post-training, which tests whether LLM agents can autonomously design, implement, debug, and execute post-training pipelines that improve foundation models. RL post-training increasingly drives model alignment and specialization, yet existing benchmarks are largely static, rewarding supervised fine-tuning or script generation without assessing an agent's ability to close an interactive RL loop. Agent2 RL-Bench provides a unified agent-facing interface: each run starts from an isolated workspace containing a base model, task data, instructions, and a grading API, and agents must iterate within a fixed budget by training models and submitting artifacts for evaluation. The benchmark spans six tasks across three levels, from static rule-based training to judge-based optimization and closed-loop online RL with trajectory collection. Two diagnostic skills, namely runtime recording and post-hoc summarization, enable structured analysis of agent behavior, facilitating smooth and effective iteration of the benchmark's evaluation framework. Across five agent systems and six driver LLMs, agents show intelligent behavior but clear limitations: one RL-oriented run improves ALFWorld from 4.85 to 93.28 via SFT warm-up and GRPO with online rollouts, yet DeepSearchQA remains difficult, most successful routes rely on supervised pipelines, and interactive outcomes show large single-run differences across agent stacks. Overall, Agent2 RL-Bench shows that current agents can sometimes engineer online RL, but stable agent-driven RL post-training remains rare under fixed budgets. It also demonstrates that our benchmark provides a strong and effective evaluation framework for future research in this direction. Code is available at https://github.com/microsoft/RD-Agent/blob/main/rdagent/scenarios/rl/autorl_bench/README.md

  • 10 authors
·
May 12

Loud or Silent? A Reusable Framework for Per-Modality Failure Analysis in Multimodal Clinical AI

Multimodal clinical models are usually judged on accuracy with every modality present, but deployment removes modalities; an echocardiogram is often unavailable where an ECG is routine. Two questions then matter beyond the size of the accuracy loss: which modality was responsible, and whether the model fails loudly or silently once that modality is dropped. The distinction is per-example and modality-level, and is separate from post-hoc feature attribution (e.g. SHAP). Models are replaced often; the evaluation that answers these questions is reused. We present a model-agnostic modality-failure framework: given N modality embeddings, any mask-aware probe, and labels, it returns a per-example failure taxonomy, a per-modality complementarity matrix that attributes error to modalities, and a loud-vs-silent dropout profile separating monitorable failures from those that pass unflagged far from the decision boundary, using only deployment-observable signals. We release it as a small, unit-tested harness and validate it against planted ground truth. Across seeds it recovers that planted modality dominance and complementary subset, reports per-modality loud-vs-silent rates, and scales to a three-modality complementarity matrix; because the planted structure is known by construction, this validates recovery of per-example attribution rather than clinical performance. We then instantiate the framework on frozen EchoJEPA and HuBERT-ECG embeddings for LVEF and the EF <= 40% HFrEF gate over a paired MIMIC-IV cohort, where on the held-out test split (n = 245) dropping echo nearly doubles error. The narrow echo-to-ECG overlap that bounds cohort size is itself a deployment finding for cardiac foundation models. All of our work can be found at https://github.com/criticaldata/PRIMED-AI.

TriAgent: Divergence-Aware Multi-Agent Committees for Cost-Efficient Financial Sentiment Analysis

Production LLM-based financial sentiment analysis faces a structural cost trap: most queries are trivially classifiable, yet expensive cloud reasoners process them all, and the bill scales linearly with user count. We present TriAgent, a multi-agent committee stratified by contextual granularity -- a word-level lexicon (VADER), a sentence-level domain transformer (FinBERT), and a cross-sentence reasoner (Qwen2.5, 0.5B-14B-4bit, with Mistral-7B and Phi-3.5-mini cross-family checks). A three-way Semantic Divergence Index (SDI) measures pairwise disagreement across granularities and routes each query accordingly. Our central finding is the critic plateau: when the LLM is re-tasked as a critic over the smaller agents' outputs, F1 plateaus at ~0.87 across 1.5B-7B Qwen (bootstrap 95% CIs overlap), while a same-size 3-persona vote drops to F1=0.66, which is driven by granularity-stratified diversity. Three corollaries follow from the same SDI signal: (i) a Shared Consensus Dictionary on multilingual sentence-BERT answers 95% of Chinese queries from an English cache at F1=0.99 -- cross-border canonicalization at zero marginal cost; (ii) SDI doubles as a post-hoc LLM-hallucination detector at AUC=0.90; (iii) the SDI single-stage strategy attains the best risk-adjusted return (Sharpe=3.50) on a 20-ticker back-test, dominating both always-FinBERT (1.36) and always-LLM (0.11). At 10M-user scale, TriAgent saves $9.3M/year vs. a GPT-4o-mini baseline. Code, lexicons, and the SCD are released.

  • 5 authors
·
Jul 21

Measuring the Symmetry--Data Exchange Rate

Equivariance theory predicts that an architectural symmetry prior reduces sample complexity by a factor of |G|; this is widely cited but rarely measured as a scaling law with controls that separate the prior from its confounds. On a controlled C_n-symmetric task, we report three findings. First, a wrong-group control with identical orbit size and matched compute is worse than no constraint (joint pairwise CI [+0.79, +3.26] excludes zero, robust across estimators); misaligned constraint is actively harmful, not merely unhelpful. Second, an augmentation baseline equipped with test-time orbit averaging matches the equivariant model exactly -- bit-identical per-epoch validation curves across matched cells -- so the architecture-vs-augmentation gap is conditional on asymmetric test-time computation, not unconditional. Third, the relative exchange rate beta_diff = 1.28 is consistent in sign and order of magnitude with the theoretical 1.0 (single-level CI [+0.92, +2.05]); the more conservative two-level bootstrap (seeds x group sizes) widens this to [-0.63, +1.72], including zero, and a finer-N replication on a sqrt(2)-spaced grid is inconclusive (point estimate -0.82). The methodological contributions -- the relative-rate estimator that cancels the shared-difficulty confound, the wrong-group control, and a pre-specified failure taxonomy -- transfer to any inductive bias whose strength can be parameterised. Honest scoping: the primary estimator beta_diff was adopted post-hoc after the initial analysis revealed a positive-slope identifiability problem; the design was never externally pre-registered; and the headline number rests on an OLS slope over seven group sizes on a coarse N grid. This is an exploratory study, not a confirmatory measurement; the wrong-group result is the cleanest finding and the one we report with the most confidence. A registered replication on fresh seeds is future work.

  • 1 authors
·
May 30 2

iFinder: Structured Zero-Shot Vision-Based LLM Grounding for Dash-Cam Video Reasoning

Grounding large language models (LLMs) in domain-specific tasks like post-hoc dash-cam driving video analysis is challenging due to their general-purpose training and lack of structured inductive biases. As vision is often the sole modality available for such analysis (i.e., no LiDAR, GPS, etc.), existing video-based vision-language models (V-VLMs) struggle with spatial reasoning, causal inference, and explainability of events in the input video. To this end, we introduce iFinder, a structured semantic grounding framework that decouples perception from reasoning by translating dash-cam videos into a hierarchical, interpretable data structure for LLMs. iFinder operates as a modular, training-free pipeline that employs pretrained vision models to extract critical cues -- object pose, lane positions, and object trajectories -- which are hierarchically organized into frame- and video-level structures. Combined with a three-block prompting strategy, it enables step-wise, grounded reasoning for the LLM to refine a peer V-VLM's outputs and provide accurate reasoning. Evaluations on four public dash-cam video benchmarks show that iFinder's proposed grounding with domain-specific cues, especially object orientation and global context, significantly outperforms end-to-end V-VLMs on four zero-shot driving benchmarks, with up to 39% gains in accident reasoning accuracy. By grounding LLMs with driving domain-specific representations, iFinder offers a zero-shot, interpretable, and reliable alternative to end-to-end V-VLMs for post-hoc driving video understanding.

  • 7 authors
·
Dec 4, 2025

UMoE:Unlocking Every Expert in Domain-Specific Training

Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) models scale capacity without proportional compute cost and have become a key architecture for frontier large language models (LLMs). Yet domain-specific post-training inherits an expert pool shaped by mixed-domain pre-training: a substantial subset of experts contributes little on the target domain, and standard supervised fine-tuning (SFT) leaves the composition of this pool unchanged. We propose a simple, budget-preserving pipeline that realigns the expert pool to the target domain before fine-tuning. Given a target domain, we (1) prune the experts with lowest domain-aligned saliency, (2) regrow the expert pool to its original size through perturbation-based expert expansion, and (3) apply standard SFT. The resulting model preserves the original expert count, parameter count, and inference cost. With a single frozen recipe and no per-domain hyperparameter tuning, UMoE consistently improves over direct sft across two MoE architectures (Qwen3-30B-A3B and Qwen3.5-35B-A3B), five domains (math, code, science, tool-use, and agentic coding), and 12 benchmarks. Representative improvements are 3.4 points in math average accuracy, 6.0 points on SWE-bench Verified. On a strong in-house math corpus, direct sft already surpasses Qwen3-30B-A3B-Thinking (82.81 vs.\ 81.06), yet UMoE further raises the average to 84.17, an additional 1.36 points, demonstrating robustness to a substantially stronger SFT regime. Data-scaling experiments further show that the gain persists as training data grows. Analysis reveals that the direct-SFT model allocates substantial routed-expert compute to a low-saliency subset that can be removed post hoc with little average degradation; UMoE turns this redundant capacity into useful domain capacity and achieves lower training loss, with gains spanning all difficulty levels in downstream evaluation.

  • 2 authors
·
Jul 12

Surely Large Multimodal Models (Don't) Excel in Visual Species Recognition?

Visual Species Recognition (VSR) is pivotal to biodiversity assessment and conservation, evolution research, and ecology and ecosystem management. Training a machine-learned model for VSR typically requires vast amounts of annotated images. Yet, species-level annotation demands domain expertise, making it realistic for domain experts to annotate only a few examples. These limited labeled data motivate training an ''expert'' model via few-shot learning (FSL). Meanwhile, advanced Large Multimodal Models (LMMs) have demonstrated prominent performance on general recognition tasks. It is straightforward to ask whether LMMs excel in the highly specialized VSR task and whether they outshine FSL expert models. Somewhat surprisingly, we find that LMMs struggle in this task, despite using various established prompting techniques. LMMs even significantly underperform FSL expert models, which are as simple as finetuning a pretrained visual encoder on the few-shot images. However, our in-depth analysis reveals that LMMs can effectively post-hoc correct the expert models' incorrect predictions. Briefly, given a test image, when prompted with the top predictions from an FSL expert model, LMMs can recover the ground-truth label. Building on this insight, we derive a simple method called Post-hoc Correction (POC), which prompts an LMM to re-rank the expert model's top predictions using enriched prompts that include softmax confidence scores and few-shot visual examples. Across five challenging VSR benchmarks, POC outperforms prior art of FSL by +6.4% in accuracy without extra training, validation, or manual intervention. Importantly, POC generalizes to different pretrained backbones and LMMs, serving as a plug-and-play module to significantly enhance existing FSL methods.

  • 4 authors
·
Dec 10, 2025

JPmHC Dynamical Isometry via Orthogonal Hyper-Connections

Recent advances in deep learning, exemplified by Hyper-Connections (HC), have expanded the residual connection paradigm by introducing wider residual streams and diverse connectivity patterns. While these innovations yield significant performance gains, they compromise the identity mapping property of residual connections, leading to training instability, limited scalability, and increased memory overhead. To address these challenges, we propose JPmHC (Jacobian-spectrum Preserving manifold-constrained Hyper-Connections), a framework that replaces identity skips with a trainable linear mixer acting on n parallel streams while explicitly controlling gradient conditioning. By constraining the mixer M on operator-norm-bounded manifolds (e.g., bistochastic, Stiefel, Grassmann), JPmHC prevents gradient pathologies and enhances stability. JPmHC introduces three key contributions: (i) a free-probability analysis that predicts Jacobian spectra for structured skips, providing actionable design rules for mixer selection; (ii) memory-efficient implicit differentiation for fixed-point projections, reducing activation memory and synchronization overhead; and (iii) a Stiefel-constrained mixer via Cayley transforms, ensuring orthogonality without post-hoc normalization. Empirical evaluations on ARC-AGI demonstrate that JPmHC achieves faster convergence, higher accuracy, and lower computational cost compared to bistochastic baselines, with a rank-p Grassmannian variant tracking between the two -- consistent with the spectral theory predictions. As a flexible and scalable extension of HC, JPmHC advances spectrum-aware, stable, and efficient deep learning, offering insights into topological architecture design and foundational model evolution. \newline \newline

  • 3 authors
·
Feb 20

Orthogonal Ensembles and Tested Explanations for Performer-Independent Body-Motion Emotion Recognition

We study body-only, 12-class acted-emotion classification from skeleton motion under leave-performer-out (LPO) evaluation, a hard, underdetermined setting: chance is 8.3%, and a protocol-matched reproduced STGCN++ baseline reaches only 25.73 +/- 4.03% Macro-F1. We show that reliable gains come not from a new architecture but from combining eleven models with orthogonal error modes: under 10-fold LPO cross-validation on the labeled training performers, an equal-weight logit-mean ensemble reaches 36.80 +/- 4.00% per-fold Macro-F1, a protocol-matched +11.07 pp (+43% relative) over the same-split reproduced baseline. Our central contribution is a tested explanation suite: for a strong ensemble member, part-masking and counterfactual edits show (rather than assert) that its decisions depend on motion-grounded body-region evidence, and this region saliency aligns with rule-based Laban Movement Analysis (LMA) attributes far more than with classical kinematics: region-level saliency-LMA Spearman rho = +0.500 versus +0.033, roughly 15x, and the alignment holds for the submitted 11-way ensemble itself at rho = +0.517; the audit is post hoc and needs no retraining. The same suite faithfully reports a negative: within-window temporal saliency is diffuse rather than localized. On the hidden challenge test set the submitted ensemble scored 37.23 % Macro-F1 and received the Best Performance Award of the MMAC Challenge 2026 (Human score is 39 %). Code is available at https://github.com/nawta/diema-challenge and the presentation at https://nawta.github.io/mmac2026/.

  • 2 authors
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Sep 14

GRAPHITE: Graph-Based Interpretable Tissue Examination for Enhanced Explainability in Breast Cancer Histopathology

Explainable AI (XAI) in medical histopathology is essential for enhancing the interpretability and clinical trustworthiness of deep learning models in cancer diagnosis. However, the black-box nature of these models often limits their clinical adoption. We introduce GRAPHITE (Graph-based Interpretable Tissue Examination), a post-hoc explainable framework designed for breast cancer tissue microarray (TMA) analysis. GRAPHITE employs a multiscale approach, extracting patches at various magnification levels, constructing an hierarchical graph, and utilising graph attention networks (GAT) with scalewise attention (SAN) to capture scale-dependent features. We trained the model on 140 tumour TMA cores and four benign whole slide images from which 140 benign samples were created, and tested it on 53 pathologist-annotated TMA samples. GRAPHITE outperformed traditional XAI methods, achieving a mean average precision (mAP) of 0.56, an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.94, and a threshold robustness (ThR) of 0.70, indicating that the model maintains high performance across a wide range of thresholds. In clinical utility, GRAPHITE achieved the highest area under the decision curve (AUDC) of 4.17e+5, indicating reliable decision support across thresholds. These results highlight GRAPHITE's potential as a clinically valuable tool in computational pathology, providing interpretable visualisations that align with the pathologists' diagnostic reasoning and support precision medicine.

  • 6 authors
·
Jan 7, 2025

Think Before Recommend: Unleashing the Latent Reasoning Power for Sequential Recommendation

Sequential Recommendation (SeqRec) aims to predict the next item by capturing sequential patterns from users' historical interactions, playing a crucial role in many real-world recommender systems. However, existing approaches predominantly adopt a direct forward computation paradigm, where the final hidden state of the sequence encoder serves as the user representation. We argue that this inference paradigm, due to its limited computational depth, struggles to model the complex evolving nature of user preferences and lacks a nuanced understanding of long-tail items, leading to suboptimal performance. To address this issue, we propose ReaRec, the first inference-time computing framework for recommender systems, which enhances user representations through implicit multi-step reasoning. Specifically, ReaRec autoregressively feeds the sequence's last hidden state into the sequential recommender while incorporating special reasoning position embeddings to decouple the original item encoding space from the multi-step reasoning space. Moreover, we introduce two lightweight reasoning-based learning methods, Ensemble Reasoning Learning (ERL) and Progressive Reasoning Learning (PRL), to further effectively exploit ReaRec's reasoning potential. Extensive experiments on five public real-world datasets and different SeqRec architectures demonstrate the generality and effectiveness of our proposed ReaRec. Remarkably, post-hoc analyses reveal that ReaRec significantly elevates the performance ceiling of multiple sequential recommendation backbones by approximately 30\%-50\%. Thus, we believe this work can open a new and promising avenue for future research in inference-time computing for sequential recommendation.

  • 8 authors
·
Mar 28, 2025 2

Physics-Informed Neural Compression of High-Dimensional Plasma Data

High-fidelity scientific simulations are now producing unprecedented amounts of data, creating a storage and analysis bottleneck. A single simulation can generate tremendous data volumes, often forcing researchers to discard valuable information. A prime example of this is plasma turbulence described by the gyrokinetic equations: nonlinear, multiscale, and 5D in phase space. It constitutes one of the most computationally demanding frontiers of modern science, with runs taking weeks and yielding tens of terabytes of data dumps. The increasing storage demands underscore the importance of compression. However, reconstructed snapshots do not necessarily preserve essential physical quantities. We present a spatiotemporal evaluation pipeline, accounting for structural phenomena and multi-scale transient fluctuations to assess the degree of physical fidelity. Indeed, we find that various compression techniques lack preservation of both spatial mode structure and temporal turbulence characteristics. Therefore, we explore Physics-Informed Neural Compression (PINC), which incorporates physics-informed losses tailored to gyrokinetics and enables extreme compressions ratios of over 70,000x. Entropy coding on top of PINC further pushes it to 120,000x. This direction provides a viable and scalable solution to the prohibitive storage demands of gyrokinetics, enabling post-hoc analyses that were previously infeasible.

  • 9 authors
·
Feb 4

Progressive Training for Explainable Citation-Grounded Dialogue: Reducing Hallucination to Zero in English-Hindi LLMs

Knowledge-grounded dialogue systems aim to generate informative, contextually relevant responses by conditioning on external knowledge sources. However, most existing approaches focus exclusively on English, lack explicit citation mechanisms for verifying factual claims, and offer limited transparency into model decision-making. We present XKD-Dial, a progressive four-stage training pipeline for explainable, knowledge-grounded dialogue generation in a bilingual (English-Hindi) setting, comprising: (1) multilingual adaptation, (2) English dialogue SFT with citation grounding, (3) bilingual dialogue SFT, and (4) GRPO alignment with citation-aware rewards. We evaluate six models spanning encoder-decoder (250M-3B) and decoder-only (1B-7B) architectures at every pipeline stage. Our key contributions are: (i) three post-hoc explainability analyses - cross-attention alignment, Integrated Gradients attribution, and occlusion-based causal grounding - applied systematically across the training trajectory to reveal how citation behaviour is learned, not only whether it is learned; (ii) citation-grounded SFT reduces hallucination to 0.0% for encoder-decoder models from Stage 2 onward; (iii) the progressive pipeline prevents catastrophic forgetting while improving Hindi capabilities; (iv) smaller models match larger models on English after SFT; and (v) GRPO provides marginal improvement over well-designed SFT for structured citation tasks. We evaluate across six automatic metrics (BLEU, ROUGE, BERTScore, FactScore, Citation-F1, and hallucination rate).

  • 1 authors
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Mar 19 2

Post Hoc Explanations of Language Models Can Improve Language Models

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in performing complex tasks. Moreover, recent research has shown that incorporating human-annotated rationales (e.g., Chain-of-Thought prompting) during in-context learning can significantly enhance the performance of these models, particularly on tasks that require reasoning capabilities. However, incorporating such rationales poses challenges in terms of scalability as this requires a high degree of human involvement. In this work, we present a novel framework, Amplifying Model Performance by Leveraging In-Context Learning with Post Hoc Explanations (AMPLIFY), which addresses the aforementioned challenges by automating the process of rationale generation. To this end, we leverage post hoc explanation methods which output attribution scores (explanations) capturing the influence of each of the input features on model predictions. More specifically, we construct automated natural language rationales that embed insights from post hoc explanations to provide corrective signals to LLMs. Extensive experimentation with real-world datasets demonstrates that our framework, AMPLIFY, leads to prediction accuracy improvements of about 10-25% over a wide range of tasks, including those where prior approaches which rely on human-annotated rationales such as Chain-of-Thought prompting fall short. Our work makes one of the first attempts at highlighting the potential of post hoc explanations as valuable tools for enhancing the effectiveness of LLMs. Furthermore, we conduct additional empirical analyses and ablation studies to demonstrate the impact of each of the components of AMPLIFY, which, in turn, leads to critical insights for refining in-context learning.

  • 6 authors
·
May 19, 2023

Understanding Disparities in Post Hoc Machine Learning Explanation

Previous work has highlighted that existing post-hoc explanation methods exhibit disparities in explanation fidelity (across 'race' and 'gender' as sensitive attributes), and while a large body of work focuses on mitigating these issues at the explanation metric level, the role of the data generating process and black box model in relation to explanation disparities remains largely unexplored. Accordingly, through both simulations as well as experiments on a real-world dataset, we specifically assess challenges to explanation disparities that originate from properties of the data: limited sample size, covariate shift, concept shift, omitted variable bias, and challenges based on model properties: inclusion of the sensitive attribute and appropriate functional form. Through controlled simulation analyses, our study demonstrates that increased covariate shift, concept shift, and omission of covariates increase explanation disparities, with the effect pronounced higher for neural network models that are better able to capture the underlying functional form in comparison to linear models. We also observe consistent findings regarding the effect of concept shift and omitted variable bias on explanation disparities in the Adult income dataset. Overall, results indicate that disparities in model explanations can also depend on data and model properties. Based on this systematic investigation, we provide recommendations for the design of explanation methods that mitigate undesirable disparities.

  • 4 authors
·
Jan 25, 2024

Darshana Graph: A Parallel Commentary Corpus for Comparative Indian Philosophy, with Stylometric and Exploratory Graph Analyses

We introduce Darshana Graph, a corpus of over 125,000 text records spanning classical Hindu, Buddhist, and Jain philosophical traditions, drawn from public-domain and openly licensed translations of sources including the Bhagavad Gita, Brahma Sutras, principal Upanishads, the Pali Canon, and core Jain texts. Its distinctive contribution lies in a structurally unique subset of roughly 8,500 Hindu and Jain records in which the same root verse or sutra is aligned across eighteen historical commentators representing five schools of Vedanta and other darshanas, enabling direct comparison of how independent interpretive traditions read identical source material. To our knowledge, no publicly available resource provides comparable cross-commentator alignment at this scale. We present two analyses built on this corpus. First, a transparent stylometric comparison requiring no machine learning measures argumentative style through scriptural citation density, explicit refutation rate, and sentence complexity. It finds a moderate negative correlation between citation density and refutation rate, a marked increase in refutation rate across three commentators in a related doctrinal lineage, and measurable genre-level differences within the Pali Canon itself. Second, we describe a constrained large language model pipeline that extracts typed philosophical relationships between concepts using a predefined relation vocabulary and deterministic post-hoc validation. The resulting graph surfaces cross-school disagreement patterns while also revealing important extraction limitations, including cases where an independent embedding-based analysis disagrees with the graph-derived findings. We release the full corpus, extracted relationship graph, and all source code.

  • 1 authors
·
Jun 15

Modernizing use of regression models in physics education research: a review of hierarchical linear modeling

Physics education researchers (PER) often analyze student data with single-level regression models (e.g., linear and logistic regression). However, education datasets can have hierarchical structures, such as students nested within courses, that single-level models fail to account for. The improper use of single-level models to analyze hierarchical datasets can lead to biased findings. Hierarchical models (a.k.a., multi-level models) account for this hierarchical nested structure in the data. In this publication, we outline the theoretical differences between how single-level and multi-level models handle hierarchical datasets. We then present analysis of a dataset from 112 introductory physics courses using both multiple linear regression and hierarchical linear modeling to illustrate the potential impact of using an inappropriate analytical method on PER findings and implications. Research can leverage multi-institutional datasets to improve the field's understanding of how to support student success in physics. There is no post hoc fix, however, if researchers use inappropriate single-level models to analyze multi-level datasets. To continue developing reliable and generalizable knowledge, PER should use hierarchical models when analyzing hierarchical datasets. The supplemental materials include a sample dataset, R code to model the building and analysis presented in the paper, and an HTML output from the R code.

  • 2 authors
·
Jul 17, 2018

EPIC: Explanation of Pretrained Image Classification Networks via Prototype

Explainable AI (XAI) methods generally fall into two categories. Post-hoc approaches generate explanations for pre-trained models and are compatible with various neural network architectures. These methods often use feature importance visualizations, such as saliency maps, to indicate which input regions influenced the model's prediction. Unfortunately, they typically offer a coarse understanding of the model's decision-making process. In contrast, ante-hoc (inherently explainable) methods rely on specially designed model architectures trained from scratch. A notable subclass of these methods provides explanations through prototypes, representative patches extracted from the training data. However, prototype-based approaches have limitations: they require dedicated architectures, involve specialized training procedures, and perform well only on specific datasets. In this work, we propose EPIC (Explanation of Pretrained Image Classification), a novel approach that bridges the gap between these two paradigms. Like post-hoc methods, EPIC operates on pre-trained models without architectural modifications. Simultaneously, it delivers intuitive, prototype-based explanations inspired by ante-hoc techniques. To the best of our knowledge, EPIC is the first post-hoc method capable of fully replicating the core explanatory power of inherently interpretable models. We evaluate EPIC on benchmark datasets commonly used in prototype-based explanations, such as CUB-200-2011 and Stanford Cars, alongside large-scale datasets like ImageNet, typically employed by post-hoc methods. EPIC uses prototypes to explain model decisions, providing a flexible and easy-to-understand tool for creating clear, high-quality explanations.

  • 7 authors
·
May 19, 2025

CalArena: A Large-Scale Post-Hoc Calibration Benchmark

Reliable probability estimates are critical in many machine learning applications, yet modern classifiers are often poorly calibrated. Post-hoc calibration provides a simple and widely used solution, but the large number of proposed methods, combined with small-scale and inconsistent evaluations, makes it difficult to determine which approaches are truly effective in practice. We introduce a large-scale, standardized benchmark for post-hoc calibration, covering nearly 2000 experiments across tabular and computer vision tasks, including binary, multiclass, and large-scale classification settings. Our benchmark aggregates predictions from a diverse set of classical models, modern deep learning architectures, and foundation models, and provides unified, reproducible implementations of dozens of calibration methods within a common evaluation framework. We argue that Post-Hoc Improvement (PHI) in proper scoring rules offers a principled alternative to traditional calibration error estimators for comparing post-hoc methods, capturing both calibration quality and potential degradation to the model's predictive performance. Using this framework, we conduct the most comprehensive empirical study of post-hoc calibration to date. Our results reveal consistent patterns across domains: smooth calibration functions outperform binning-based approaches, dedicated multiclass methods are essential in high-dimensional settings, and generic machine learning models are not competitive without calibration-specific design. To facilitate future research, we release all data, code, and evaluation tools, providing a plug-and-play benchmark for developing and comparing calibration methods.

  • 4 authors
·
May 27

WildTrace: Benchmarking Natural Evidence Trails in Long-Context Reasoning

Answering complex questions over long documents frequently requires integrating evidence that the source itself disperses naturally across distant passages. In an incident report, the operating condition, design flaw, and missed safety check that jointly explain a disaster may appear dozens of sections apart; in a novel, a character's true motive may surface only through scenes far removed from the moment it becomes relevant. This source-internal evidence integration is central to real-world long-document analysis, yet existing benchmarks largely sidestep it. Needle probes, planted facts, and reverse-engineered multi-hop chains embed evidence that may differ from the host text in distribution, placement, or register, making it unclear whether strong performance reflects genuine source reasoning or distributional artifacts. We introduce WILDTRACE, a benchmark of 481 tasks over 214 naturally occurring long-form sources such as technical incident reports and lesser-known literary narratives, where all evidence trails arise from the document's own causal, temporal, and narrative logic. Drawing on Pearl's causal hierarchy and prior multi-hop reasoning typologies, we define seven source-internal evidence geometries that characterize the distinct relational demands of analytical reading in long documents. A source-first construction pipeline mines candidate trails from document structure before writing questions; each item then undergoes multi-stage validation covering clue necessity, answer groundedness, rubric fidelity, contamination resistance and answerability. As models are increasingly entrusted with real-world high-stakes analytical tasks, this gap between accessing information and reasoning over naturally dispersed evidence emerges as a defining challenge for the next stage of long-context research.

  • 10 authors
·
Jul 22

ExCeL : Combined Extreme and Collective Logit Information for Enhancing Out-of-Distribution Detection

Deep learning models often exhibit overconfidence in predicting out-of-distribution (OOD) data, underscoring the crucial role of OOD detection in ensuring reliability in predictions. Among various OOD detection approaches, post-hoc detectors have gained significant popularity, primarily due to their ease of use and implementation. However, the effectiveness of most post-hoc OOD detectors has been constrained as they rely solely either on extreme information, such as the maximum logit, or on the collective information (i.e., information spanned across classes or training samples) embedded within the output layer. In this paper, we propose ExCeL that combines both extreme and collective information within the output layer for enhanced accuracy in OOD detection. We leverage the logit of the top predicted class as the extreme information (i.e., the maximum logit), while the collective information is derived in a novel approach that involves assessing the likelihood of other classes appearing in subsequent ranks across various training samples. Our idea is motivated by the observation that, for in-distribution (ID) data, the ranking of classes beyond the predicted class is more deterministic compared to that in OOD data. Experiments conducted on CIFAR100 and ImageNet-200 datasets demonstrate that ExCeL consistently is among the five top-performing methods out of twenty-one existing post-hoc baselines when the joint performance on near-OOD and far-OOD is considered (i.e., in terms of AUROC and FPR95). Furthermore, ExCeL shows the best overall performance across both datasets, unlike other baselines that work best on one dataset but has a performance drop in the other.

  • 3 authors
·
Nov 22, 2023

Down the Rabbit Hole: Detecting Online Extremism, Radicalisation, and Politicised Hate Speech

Social media is a modern person's digital voice to project and engage with new ideas and mobilise communities x2013 a power shared with extremists. Given the societal risks of unvetted content-moderating algorithms for Extremism, Radicalisation, and Hate speech (ERH) detection, responsible software engineering must understand the who, what, when, where, and why such models are necessary to protect user safety and free expression. Hence, we propose and examine the unique research field of ERH context mining to unify disjoint studies. Specifically, we evaluate the start-to-finish design process from socio-technical definition-building and dataset collection strategies to technical algorithm design and performance. Our 2015-2021 51-study Systematic Literature Review (SLR) provides the first cross-examination of textual, network, and visual approaches to detecting extremist affiliation, hateful content, and radicalisation towards groups and movements. We identify consensus-driven ERH definitions and propose solutions to existing ideological and geographic biases, particularly due to the lack of research in Oceania/Australasia. Our hybridised investigation on Natural Language Processing, Community Detection, and visual-text models demonstrates the dominating performance of textual transformer-based algorithms. We conclude with vital recommendations for ERH context mining researchers and propose an uptake roadmap with guidelines for researchers, industries, and governments to enable a safer cyberspace.

  • 4 authors
·
Jan 26, 2023

A Reliable Knowledge Processing Framework for Combustion Science using Foundation Models

This research explores the integration of large language models (LLMs) into scientific data assimilation, focusing on combustion science as a case study. Leveraging foundational models integrated with Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) framework, the study introduces an approach to process diverse combustion research data, spanning experimental studies, simulations, and literature. The multifaceted nature of combustion research emphasizes the critical role of knowledge processing in navigating and extracting valuable information from a vast and diverse pool of sources. The developed approach minimizes computational and economic expenses while optimizing data privacy and accuracy. It incorporates prompt engineering and offline open-source LLMs, offering user autonomy in selecting base models. The study provides a thorough examination of text segmentation strategies, conducts comparative studies between LLMs, and explores various optimized prompts to demonstrate the effectiveness of the framework. By incorporating an external database, the framework outperforms a conventional LLM in generating accurate responses and constructing robust arguments. Additionally, the study delves into the investigation of optimized prompt templates for the purpose of efficient extraction of scientific literature. The research addresses concerns related to hallucinations and false research articles by introducing a custom workflow developed with a detection algorithm to filter out inaccuracies. Despite identified areas for improvement, the framework consistently delivers accurate domain-specific responses with minimal human oversight. The prompt-agnostic approach introduced holds promise for future deliberations. The study underscores the significance of integrating LLMs and knowledge processing techniques in scientific research, providing a foundation for advancements in data assimilation and utilization.

  • 2 authors
·
Dec 31, 2023

Accelerating Social Science Research via Agentic Hypothesization and Experimentation

Data-driven social science research is inherently slow, relying on iterative cycles of observation, hypothesis generation, and experimental validation. While recent data-driven methods promise to accelerate parts of this process, they largely fail to support end-to-end scientific discovery. To address this gap, we introduce EXPERIGEN, an agentic framework that operationalizes end-to-end discovery through a Bayesian optimization inspired two-phase search, in which a Generator proposes candidate hypotheses and an Experimenter evaluates them empirically. Across multiple domains, EXPERIGEN consistently discovers 2-4x more statistically significant hypotheses that are 7-17 percent more predictive than prior approaches, and naturally extends to complex data regimes including multimodal and relational datasets. Beyond statistical performance, hypotheses must be novel, empirically grounded, and actionable to drive real scientific progress. To evaluate these qualities, we conduct an expert review of machine-generated hypotheses, collecting feedback from senior faculty. Among 25 reviewed hypotheses, 88 percent were rated moderately or strongly novel, 70 percent were deemed impactful and worth pursuing, and most demonstrated rigor comparable to senior graduate-level research. Finally, recognizing that ultimate validation requires real-world evidence, we conduct the first A/B test of LLM-generated hypotheses, observing statistically significant results with p less than 1e-6 and a large effect size of 344 percent.

  • 8 authors
·
Feb 7

A Unified Statistical And Computational Framework For Ex-Post Harmonisation Of Aggregate Statistics

Ex-post harmonisation is one of many data preprocessing processes used to combine the increasingly vast and diverse sources of data available for research and analysis. Documenting provenance and ensuring the quality of multi-source datasets is vital for ensuring trustworthy scientific research and encouraging reuse of existing harmonisation efforts. However, capturing and communicating statistically relevant properties of harmonised datasets is difficult without a universal standard for describing harmonisation operations. Our paper combines mathematical and computer science perspectives to address this need. The Crossmaps Framework defines a new approach for transforming existing variables collected under a specific measurement or classification standard to an imputed counterfactual variable indexed by some target standard. It uses computational graphs to separate intended transformation logic from actual data transformations, and avoid the risk of syntactically valid data manipulation scripts resulting in statistically questionable data. In this paper, we introduce the Crossmaps Framework through the example of ex-post harmonisation of aggregated statistics in the social sciences. We define a new provenance task abstraction, the crossmap transform, and formalise two associated objects, the shared mass array and the crossmap. We further define graph, matrix and list encodings of crossmaps and discuss resulting implications for understanding statistical properties of ex-post harmonisation and designing error minimising workflows.

  • 1 authors
·
Jun 20, 2024

Bayesian aggregation of average data: An application in drug development

Throughout the different phases of a drug development program, randomized trials are used to establish the tolerability, safety, and efficacy of a candidate drug. At each stage one aims to optimize the design of future studies by extrapolation from the available evidence at the time. This includes collected trial data and relevant external data. However, relevant external data are typically available as averages only, for example from trials on alternative treatments reported in the literature. Here we report on such an example from a drug development for wet age-related macular degeneration. This disease is the leading cause of severe vision loss in the elderly. While current treatment options are efficacious, they are also a substantial burden for the patient. Hence, new treatments are under development which need to be compared against existing treatments. The general statistical problem this leads to is meta-analysis, which addresses the question of how we can combine datasets collected under different conditions. Bayesian methods have long been used to achieve partial pooling. Here we consider the challenge when the model of interest is complex (hierarchical and nonlinear) and one dataset is given as raw data while the second dataset is given as averages only. In such a situation, common meta-analytic methods can only be applied when the model is sufficiently simple for analytic approaches. When the model is too complex, for example nonlinear, an analytic approach is not possible. We provide a Bayesian solution by using simulation to approximately reconstruct the likelihood of the external summary and allowing the parameters in the model to vary under the different conditions. We first evaluate our approach using fake-data simulations and then report results for the drug development program that motivated this research.

  • 6 authors
·
May 12, 2020

Before the Action: Benchmarking LLMs on Prospective Hypothesis Discovery

Large language models (LLMs) excel at answering pre-specified questions, yet their ability to navigate the open-ended, pre-conclusion stage of discovery remains largely unmeasured. We introduce Prospective Hypothesis Discovery (PHD), which asks models to autonomously construct grounded, discriminative, and testable hypothesis spaces from inconclusive evidence, including anomalous observations and fragmented records, to guide subsequent investigation. To evaluate this capability, we introduce HypoArena, comprising HypoData, a benchmark of 988 cases across six scientific and analytical domains, and HypoEval, an evaluation framework for open-ended hypothesis sets. To construct HypoData at scale, we propose Retrospective Context Regression, a Forge--Audit pipeline that reconstructs pre-conclusion contexts from completed expert documents by removing explicit conclusions, target hypotheses, and retrospective causal attributions while preserving the factual substrate. Because PHD admits multiple valid outputs, HypoEval combines bidirectional pairwise judgments with Bradley--Terry--Davidson aggregation for ranking and six-dimensional rubric scoring for diagnosis. Experiments on 15 frontier LLMs reveal clear capability stratification and model-dependent effects of structured analytical skills, with gains for several lower-performing models on HypoArena but regressions for other systems, including a top-performing model. Compared with absolute rubric scoring, arena evaluation resolves finer-grained differences among models, with aggregated rankings showing strong agreement with human experts and an independent judge. Together, these results support treating PHD as a distinct target for evaluating how LLMs formulate investigative directions when final conclusions are withheld. Our code and data are publicly available at github.com/SKYLENAGE-AI/HypoArena and github.com/SKYLENAGE-AI/HypoArena.

  • 18 authors
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Jul 16

SciPostLayoutTree: A Dataset for Structural Analysis of Scientific Posters

Scientific posters play a vital role in academic communication by presenting ideas through visual summaries. Analyzing reading order and parent-child relations of posters is essential for building structure-aware interfaces that facilitate clear and accurate understanding of research content. Despite their prevalence in academic communication, posters remain underexplored in structural analysis research, which has primarily focused on papers. To address this gap, we constructed SciPostLayoutTree, a dataset of approximately 8,000 posters annotated with reading order and parent-child relations. Compared to an existing structural analysis dataset, SciPostLayoutTree contains more instances of spatially challenging relations, including upward, horizontal, and long-distance relations. As a solution to these challenges, we develop Layout Tree Decoder, which incorporates visual features as well as bounding box features including position and category information. The model also uses beam search to predict relations while capturing sequence-level plausibility. Experimental results demonstrate that our model improves the prediction accuracy for spatially challenging relations and establishes a solid baseline for poster structure analysis. The dataset is publicly available at https://huggingface.co/datasets/omron-sinicx/scipostlayouttree. The code is also publicly available at https://github.com/omron-sinicx/scipostlayouttree.

  • 3 authors
·
Nov 23, 2025

VitaLITy: Promoting Serendipitous Discovery of Academic Literature with Transformers & Visual Analytics

There are a few prominent practices for conducting reviews of academic literature, including searching for specific keywords on Google Scholar or checking citations from some initial seed paper(s). These approaches serve a critical purpose for academic literature reviews, yet there remain challenges in identifying relevant literature when similar work may utilize different terminology (e.g., mixed-initiative visual analytics papers may not use the same terminology as papers on model-steering, yet the two topics are relevant to one another). In this paper, we introduce a system, VitaLITy, intended to complement existing practices. In particular, VitaLITy promotes serendipitous discovery of relevant literature using transformer language models, allowing users to find semantically similar papers in a word embedding space given (1) a list of input paper(s) or (2) a working abstract. VitaLITy visualizes this document-level embedding space in an interactive 2-D scatterplot using dimension reduction. VitaLITy also summarizes meta information about the document corpus or search query, including keywords and co-authors, and allows users to save and export papers for use in a literature review. We present qualitative findings from an evaluation of VitaLITy, suggesting it can be a promising complementary technique for conducting academic literature reviews. Furthermore, we contribute data from 38 popular data visualization publication venues in VitaLITy, and we provide scrapers for the open-source community to continue to grow the list of supported venues.

  • 4 authors
·
Aug 7, 2021

When AI Navigates the Fog of War

Can AI reason about a war before its trajectory becomes historically obvious? Analyzing this capability is difficult because retrospective geopolitical prediction is heavily confounded by training-data leakage. We address this challenge through a temporally grounded case study of the early stages of the 2026 Middle East conflict, which unfolded after the training cutoff of current frontier models. We construct 11 critical temporal nodes, 42 node-specific verifiable questions, and 5 general exploratory questions, requiring models to reason only from information that would have been publicly available at each moment. This design substantially mitigates training-data leakage concerns, creating a setting well-suited for studying how models analyze an unfolding crisis under the fog of war, and provides, to our knowledge, the first temporally grounded analysis of LLM reasoning in an ongoing geopolitical conflict. Our analysis reveals three main findings. First, current state-of-the-art large language models often display a striking degree of strategic realism, reasoning beyond surface rhetoric toward deeper structural incentives. Second, this capability is uneven across domains: models are more reliable in economically and logistically structured settings than in politically ambiguous multi-actor environments. Finally, model narratives evolve over time, shifting from early expectations of rapid containment toward more systemic accounts of regional entrenchment and attritional de-escalation. Since the conflict remains ongoing at the time of writing, this work can serve as an archival snapshot of model reasoning during an unfolding geopolitical crisis, enabling future studies without the hindsight bias of retrospective analysis.

umd-zhou-lab Tianyi Lab
·
Mar 17 3

A Comprehensive Survey on Self-Interpretable Neural Networks

Neural networks have achieved remarkable success across various fields. However, the lack of interpretability limits their practical use, particularly in critical decision-making scenarios. Post-hoc interpretability, which provides explanations for pre-trained models, is often at risk of robustness and fidelity. This has inspired a rising interest in self-interpretable neural networks, which inherently reveal the prediction rationale through the model structures. Although there exist surveys on post-hoc interpretability, a comprehensive and systematic survey of self-interpretable neural networks is still missing. To address this gap, we first collect and review existing works on self-interpretable neural networks and provide a structured summary of their methodologies from five key perspectives: attribution-based, function-based, concept-based, prototype-based, and rule-based self-interpretation. We also present concrete, visualized examples of model explanations and discuss their applicability across diverse scenarios, including image, text, graph data, and deep reinforcement learning. Additionally, we summarize existing evaluation metrics for self-interpretability and identify open challenges in this field, offering insights for future research. To support ongoing developments, we present a publicly accessible resource to track advancements in this domain: https://github.com/yangji721/Awesome-Self-Interpretable-Neural-Network.

  • 10 authors
·
Jan 26, 2025

Which Explanation Should I Choose? A Function Approximation Perspective to Characterizing Post Hoc Explanations

A critical problem in the field of post hoc explainability is the lack of a common foundational goal among methods. For example, some methods are motivated by function approximation, some by game theoretic notions, and some by obtaining clean visualizations. This fragmentation of goals causes not only an inconsistent conceptual understanding of explanations but also the practical challenge of not knowing which method to use when. In this work, we begin to address these challenges by unifying eight popular post hoc explanation methods (LIME, C-LIME, KernelSHAP, Occlusion, Vanilla Gradients, Gradients x Input, SmoothGrad, and Integrated Gradients). We show that these methods all perform local function approximation of the black-box model, differing only in the neighbourhood and loss function used to perform the approximation. This unification enables us to (1) state a no free lunch theorem for explanation methods, demonstrating that no method can perform optimally across all neighbourhoods, and (2) provide a guiding principle to choose among methods based on faithfulness to the black-box model. We empirically validate these theoretical results using various real-world datasets, model classes, and prediction tasks. By bringing diverse explanation methods into a common framework, this work (1) advances the conceptual understanding of these methods, revealing their shared local function approximation objective, properties, and relation to one another, and (2) guides the use of these methods in practice, providing a principled approach to choose among methods and paving the way for the creation of new ones.

  • 3 authors
·
Jun 2, 2022

AI for Auto-Research: Roadmap & User Guide

AI-assisted research is crossing a threshold: fully automated systems can now generate research papers for as little as $15, while long-horizon agents can execute experiments, draft manuscripts, and simulate critique with minimal human input. Yet this productivity frontier exposes a deeper integrity problem: under scientific pressure, even frontier LLMs still fabricate results, miss hidden errors, and fail to judge novelty reliably. Studying developments through April 2026, we present an end-to-end analysis of AI across the complete research lifecycle, organized into four epistemological phases: Creation (idea generation, literature review, coding & experiments, tables & figures), Writing (paper writing), Validation (peer review, rebuttal & revision), and Dissemination (posters, slides, videos, social media, project pages, and interactive agents). We identify a sharp, stage-dependent boundary between reliable assistance and unreliable autonomy: AI excels at structured, retrieval-grounded, and tool-mediated tasks, but remains fragile for genuinely novel ideas, research-level experiments, and scientific judgment. Generated ideas often degrade after implementation, research code lags far behind pattern-matching benchmarks, and end-to-end autonomous systems have not yet consistently reached major-venue acceptance standards. We further show that greater automation can obscure rather than eliminate failure modes, making human-governed collaboration the most credible deployment paradigm. Finally, we provide a structured taxonomy, benchmark suite, and tool inventory, cross-stage design principles, and a practitioner-oriented playbook, with resources maintained at our project page.

  • 20 authors
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May 17 1

Real-Time Community Detection in Large Social Networks on a Laptop

For a broad range of research, governmental and commercial applications it is important to understand the allegiances, communities and structure of key players in society. One promising direction towards extracting this information is to exploit the rich relational data in digital social networks (the social graph). As social media data sets are very large, most approaches make use of distributed computing systems for this purpose. Distributing graph processing requires solving many difficult engineering problems, which has lead some researchers to look at single-machine solutions that are faster and easier to maintain. In this article, we present a single-machine real-time system for large-scale graph processing that allows analysts to interactively explore graph structures. The key idea is that the aggregate actions of large numbers of users can be compressed into a data structure that encapsulates user similarities while being robust to noise and queryable in real-time. We achieve single machine real-time performance by compressing the neighbourhood of each vertex using minhash signatures and facilitate rapid queries through Locality Sensitive Hashing. These techniques reduce query times from hours using industrial desktop machines operating on the full graph to milliseconds on standard laptops. Our method allows exploration of strongly associated regions (i.e. communities) of large graphs in real-time on a laptop. It has been deployed in software that is actively used by social network analysts and offers another channel for media owners to monetise their data, helping them to continue to provide free services that are valued by billions of people globally.

  • 4 authors
·
Jan 15, 2016

Preserving Statistical Validity in Adaptive Data Analysis

A great deal of effort has been devoted to reducing the risk of spurious scientific discoveries, from the use of sophisticated validation techniques, to deep statistical methods for controlling the false discovery rate in multiple hypothesis testing. However, there is a fundamental disconnect between the theoretical results and the practice of data analysis: the theory of statistical inference assumes a fixed collection of hypotheses to be tested, or learning algorithms to be applied, selected non-adaptively before the data are gathered, whereas in practice data is shared and reused with hypotheses and new analyses being generated on the basis of data exploration and the outcomes of previous analyses. In this work we initiate a principled study of how to guarantee the validity of statistical inference in adaptive data analysis. As an instance of this problem, we propose and investigate the question of estimating the expectations of m adaptively chosen functions on an unknown distribution given n random samples. We show that, surprisingly, there is a way to estimate an exponential in n number of expectations accurately even if the functions are chosen adaptively. This gives an exponential improvement over standard empirical estimators that are limited to a linear number of estimates. Our result follows from a general technique that counter-intuitively involves actively perturbing and coordinating the estimates, using techniques developed for privacy preservation. We give additional applications of this technique to our question.

  • 6 authors
·
Nov 10, 2014

From Ideas to Actions: A Public-Data Decision-Support Toolchain Across the Venture Lifecycle

Founders face two linked decisions: whether to pursue an idea before founding, and which operating actions and capital partners fit afterward. We present a public-data decision-support toolchain combining time-bounded proposal profiling, market and moat checks, and deterministic aggregation with auditable investor-company event chains for retrospective analysis. Pre-founding: (a) After threshold selection on 198 development companies, the frozen pipeline achieves F0.5=0.5357 [0.412, 0.655] on an independent, row-disjoint 198-company validation sample. On the combined 396 rows, the Full Pipeline scores 0.6301 versus 0.2734 for a paired Raw LLM baseline. Post-stratification of 1,027 completed cases in a separate scale cohort yields 0.6506 [0.598, 0.707]; the run remains incomplete. A 377-row composition-matched check yields 0.6573. (b) The AI-inference study identifies distribution-layer businesses as a replicable path to independent profitability with a limited revenue ceiling, and frontier-model ownership as a path to capital-market upside at exceptional capital cost. Post-founding: (a) Public sources support auditable event-chain analysis. (b) In the chip-company study, sustained product, customer, and supply-chain progress is associated with better observed outcomes; financing alone does not establish operating progress. (c) Financing comprises 79% of confirmed visible post-investment actions. Evidence tentatively favors acquisition-experienced strategic corporate investors for acquisition-oriented founders and financing-led institutional VCs with fewer observed control events for independence-oriented founders. Findings are developmental and observational, not causal guarantees or investment advice. We release shared ontology, provenance-bearing EventChain data, schemas, benchmarks, and executable skills for audit, reuse, and extension.

  • 1 authors
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Sep 13

Large Language Models for History, Philosophy, and Sociology of Science: Interpretive Uses, Methodological Challenges, and Critical Perspectives

This paper explores the use of large language models (LLMs) as research tools in the history, philosophy, and sociology of science (HPSS). LLMs are remarkably effective at processing unstructured text and inferring meaning from context, offering new affordances that challenge long-standing divides between computational and interpretive methods. This raises both opportunities and challenges for HPSS, which emphasizes interpretive methodologies and understands meaning as context-dependent, ambiguous, and historically situated. We argue that HPSS is uniquely positioned not only to benefit from LLMs' capabilities but also to interrogate their epistemic assumptions and infrastructural implications. To this end, we first offer a concise primer on LLM architectures and training paradigms tailored to non-technical readers. We frame LLMs not as neutral tools but as epistemic infrastructures that encode assumptions about meaning, context, and similarity, conditioned by their training data, architecture, and patterns of use. We then examine how computational techniques enhanced by LLMs, such as structuring data, detecting patterns, and modeling dynamic processes, can be applied to support interpretive research in HPSS. Our analysis compares full-context and generative models, outlines strategies for domain and task adaptation (e.g., continued pretraining, fine-tuning, and retrieval-augmented generation), and evaluates their respective strengths and limitations for interpretive inquiry in HPSS. We conclude with four lessons for integrating LLMs into HPSS: (1) model selection involves interpretive trade-offs; (2) LLM literacy is foundational; (3) HPSS must define its own benchmarks and corpora; and (4) LLMs should enhance, not replace, interpretive methods.

  • 3 authors
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Jun 13, 2025

Generation-Time vs. Post-hoc Citation: A Holistic Evaluation of LLM Attribution

Trustworthy Large Language Models (LLMs) must cite human-verifiable sources in high-stakes domains such as healthcare, law, academia, and finance, where even small errors can have severe consequences. Practitioners and researchers face a choice: let models generate citations during decoding, or let models draft answers first and then attach appropriate citations. To clarify this choice, we introduce two paradigms: Generation-Time Citation (G-Cite), which produces the answer and citations in one pass, and Post-hoc Citation (P-Cite), which adds or verifies citations after drafting. We conduct a comprehensive evaluation from zero-shot to advanced retrieval-augmented methods across four popular attribution datasets and provide evidence-based recommendations that weigh trade-offs across use cases. Our results show a consistent trade-off between coverage and citation correctness, with retrieval as the main driver of attribution quality in both paradigms. P-Cite methods achieve high coverage with competitive correctness and moderate latency, whereas G-Cite methods prioritize precision at the cost of coverage and speed. We recommend a retrieval-centric, P-Cite-first approach for high-stakes applications, reserving G-Cite for precision-critical settings such as strict claim verification. Our codes and human evaluation results are available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/Citation_Paradigms-BBB5/

  • 4 authors
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Sep 25, 2025